Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!Do you think Mother Nature cares?
Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!
Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!
Subtropical Storm Ana is likely the highlight of the 2015 Atlantic basin season! :-D
Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast? We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).
Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast? We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).
The remnants have already moved through. I believe that was Wednesday???
A disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula could bring unneeded rain to Texas and the Gulf Coast:
CNGL-Leudimin, thoughts on Danny? Recurve out to sea? Entrain too much Saharan dust and disintegrate? Make it to the Caribbean and become a threat?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
Oh, and lists in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (East of 140ºW) are recycled every six years except for retired names. Philippines also does that, but every four years. Meanwhile, Central Pacific (i.e. Eastern Pacific West of 140ºW), Western and Southern Pacific and Australia go on and when they reach the end of their lists they start over, Southwestern Indian uses brand new lists every season (They have yet to release the 2015-16 one) and is expected for Northern Indian to make up a new list when it reaches the end of current one.
Give me a Cat 1 hurricane to finally watch on sat images in the Atlantic(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif)
Cat 2 :bigass: :bigass: :bigass:If it stays out in the ocean, fine.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...
And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.
Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...
And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.
In 1982, my folks and I were living on Kauai when Hurricane Iwa hit. It hit the resort area of Poipu the hardest; we were living only a mile or so from the hotels. I still remember the downed trees and powerlines and the hotels smashed by the ocean. My parents had a little business by the Sheraton Kauai that rented mopeds, bicycles, surfboards and even underwater cameras; that got wiped out by Iwa.
By 1992, I had long since moved back to my native southern California, but my parents were still on Kauai when the much stronger Hurricane Iniki (Cat. 4) smashed into the island and tore it to shreds.
And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D
And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D
I'm now expecting Erika to dissipate and then to regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf. But such a disorganized storm is not interesting for me, I prefer category 4 hurricane Jimena over the open waters of Pacific ocean. And it was named only 48 hours ago! :wow:The EPac is going bananas right now, with three Category 4 storms at the same time in Kilo, Jimena, and Ignacio. This is one hell of an El Nino, isn't it?
Tropical Storm Ida. All models (GFS, European, the always drunk Canadian, as well as the hurricane models HWRF and GFDL) see this cyclone reaching major hurricane status and stay away from land.
Also, we'll see yet another Hawaiian-named storm? Tropical depression Five-C (Twenty-C by my count, which groups NHC and CPHC responsability areas together) is now active.
That thing is currently aiming straight at New Jersey on a lot of forecast models, which may not be the worst thing when we are in a serious drought right now.
Unless it strengthens into some monstrous hurricane before landfall in which case, fuck.
Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the
west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available
guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant
divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office
models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United
States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system
well offshore. The official forecast lies between these
possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble solution.
Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.
2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.
3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.
Reconnaissance mission finding 180 kt flight-level winds and a 880 mbar central pressure in Patricia, which would be the record for the deepest system ever to form in the Pacific east of 180, beating the EPac record holder Linda (1997, 902 mbar)
but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.
Quotebut Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.
I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?
Quotebut Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.
I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?
175 knots is around 200mph, I think.
I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia. Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.
How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia. Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.
Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.
How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia. Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.
Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.
How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia. Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.
Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.
Smaller, though, and hitting a less-populated area. Still, yeah, you're talking about an amount of damage, not a magnitude. Those affected by Patricia will be no less homeless or dead than those affected by Katrina.
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia. Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.
Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.
They were talking about it here too. Taking air time away from the 'Halloween and snow' and 'leaves are changing colour' weather news.
As of around 9:30 AM ET, Patricia heads northeast towards Houston, Texas. The wind speed is 165 mph (still Category 5).
That was today. I checked the Weather Channel.As of around 9:30 AM ET, Patricia heads northeast towards Houston, Texas. The wind speed is 165 mph (still Category 5).
That seems very improbable more than 12 hours after landfall. Perhaps you're seeing the prior day's advisory?
iPhone
How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia. Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.
Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.
Smaller, though, and hitting a less-populated area. Still, yeah, you're talking about an amount of damage, not a magnitude. Those affected by Patricia will be no less homeless or dead than those affected by Katrina.
I was also thinking about the area it hit. Katrina was so damaging due to the fact that it hit New Orleans, a city below sea level, and breached its dikes. Also, Patricia was supposed to (I'm not sure if it did) weaken very quickly once it made landfall, because it was over a mountain chain, according to the news.
I'm no expert on this though, so Patricia could be more damaging.
Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans. Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.
true but keep in mind that though Katrina had Cat 3 winds and pressure, it was still accompanied by a larger than usual surge.Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans. Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.
A couple of the levees also had a design flaw that made them weaker than they were supposed to be from the getgo, they took soil samples where the ground was already the most compressed and thus the strength was measured unconservatively. And then you have the decision to build a city in the middle of the swamp in the first place.
But yeah, very manmade.
true but keep in mind that though Katrina had Cat 3 winds and pressure, it was still accompanied by a larger than usual surge.Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans. Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.
A couple of the levees also had a design flaw that made them weaker than they were supposed to be from the getgo, they took soil samples where the ground was already the most compressed and thus the strength was measured unconservatively. And then you have the decision to build a city in the middle of the swamp in the first place.
But yeah, very manmade.
UPDATE: Patricia's winds at a measly 30 mph. As of 7 pm CDT (8 PM ET), and 10:12 PM ET as I write the post, Patricia is still on its northeast course towards the United States and Texas. It is currently just about west of Monterrey, with Monterrey being in the southeast side of the tropical storm. It has another 455 miles to go until it hits a major city, Houston, Texas.
Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans. Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.
true but keep in mind that though Katrina had Cat 3 winds and pressure, it was still accompanied by a larger than usual surge.
Quote from: BrandonKatrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans. Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.
Within New Orleans, yes. But Katrina had such a far-ranging impact that to focus on New Orleans was to miss the big picture with that storm.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016
...OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 30.8W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Alex.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the
eastern Atlantic has developed into a subtropical storm.
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a turn
toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Alex is expected to become an extratopical cyclone before reaching
the Azores on Friday.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
Again, why do we need to name subtropical systems?
Again, why do we need to name subtropical systems?
Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?Because it's 2016.
So, when the season cranks back up this summer, they'll start with the B name?Yes. All storms forming within a certain year use the names from that year's list.
Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?
Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?
Did you mean hurricane Alex should have been hurricane Larry instead? Even though we are off season*, lists are used in a calendar year. I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.
* Off-season in the Atlantic and EPAC, as we are on the Southern Hemisphere season. In fact I'm currently tracking cyclone Victor in the South Pacific, which has stalled after attaining Category 1 status.
I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.
I've already 'killed' that H storm (Go ahead and say its name: Hermine) since it's no longer tropical.
I've also seen Madeline battering Hawaii and now Lester passing to the North of the state. And Japan getting hit by several storms in a row: Kompasu, the 'North Korean' Mindulle (or Mindeulle as I spell it), Lionrock and its crazy track, and now Namtheun (Note: Kompasu goes between Lionrock and Namtheun in the naming list).
How come a tropical storm has formed over land? I didn't believe that was possible, but Julia thinks otherwise.TDs frequently form onshore in the Indian Ocean region: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#Deep_Depression_BOB_02
It looks like there might be a developing tropical storm right behind Matthew.
It looks like there might be a developing tropical storm right behind Matthew.
You sure it's not Nicole? I see a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles. What I'm more worried about is the ensembles going with this loop track. Florida could get a double blow of a cat 2 or 3 hurricane
SC shifted I-26 to contraflow northwest to I-77 today as well.
Harvey is actually insane...This is the fastest intensification of a storm I have seen in years. I fear for the worst when it comes to rainfall, due to the fact that it's scheduled to drift over the same spot for at least a few days. This situation just got so much more threatening in such a short amount of time.
Harvey just upgraded to cat 4. This is not good. We are being told to get our gas tanks filled before prices spike. It is said that one third of the nation's refineries will be negatively affected by Harvey.
Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?
Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?
The bright green area for "flood warning" might be the vastest such area I've ever seen. The Houston area has gotten 12-25 inches of rain, and another 20 inches are forecast. See the following link; click around on the warning map to see details for specific areas, and also look at "storm total precip."
http://www.weather.gov/hgx/
The following link is to the rain still forecast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093137.shtml?rainqpf#contents
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashion–essentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashion–essentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.
You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen. I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashion–essentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.
You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen. I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.
...Irma might come to South FL next week (Sun the 9th?)...
Now a cat 4, and honestly it could be a cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Not good.
I have it with 150 mph winds since I report 10 minute sustained ones like the WMO recommends, as opposed to the 1 minute the NHC uses.
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.
Fixed for me as I don't count potential cyclones that eventually don't form. Fortunately the now Tropical Storm Katia is forecast to head South instead.
Fun fact: Katia is the replacement name for Katrina, and we have now a Category 5 super hurricane (with another name).
Latest track shifted Irma to hit Miami, then go back offshore before land-falling somewhere along the southeast Atlantic coastline from Georgia to North Carolina
Oh, lovely. Just checked the NHC track and Irma's projected to exit Florida right where I live (Brevard County). Lovely.
The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.
The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.There may be some effect from interaction with land. It's been over tiny islands but is now closer to Hispaniola and, soon, Cuba. That disrupts the wind pattern, which may weaken it. As long as the eye and most of the core remain over water the effect should be fairly small. The forecast shows gradual weakening. In addition to interaction with land, there's the cold front that was mentioned. That will likely come along with less upper-level outflow and more shear. Also, when that cold front is approaching there may be some dry air intrusion. A hurricane is a precision machine. Many components can contribute to or detract from a storm's intensity.
Other forces are at play. Namely, the front that is causing Irma to turn north in the first place.
... A hurricane is a precision machine. Many components can contribute to or detract from a storm's intensity.
We feel we are safe - and made it! Some trees and screens that we can see, street is flooded but just at end of driveway here so hopefully won't be an issue - storm surge is still to come so we won't know till later or tomorrow about mom and dads. Thank you for all the prayers and support we'll continue to send updates when the sunshines! ❤️
Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.
Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.
??
Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.
Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane? Or are you just throwing ideas out there?
After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.
Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths. We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts. 3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers. Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state. That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.
The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather". And they are right about that. But they can predict the weather. And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.
It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley.
Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.
??
Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.
Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane? Or are you just throwing ideas out there?
Based on predictions by a few Youtube channels of amateurs, but you're giving me a more professional idea of where Jose is headed. The NWS and NOAA aren't 100% accurate...then again, they're reliable people when it comes to hurricane tracking.
It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley.
Because of the size of the storm, it would have had to veer way off track for the entire state not to feel the effects. And that's one of the reasons why the tracking of the hurricane won't get the attention it deserves. Throwing out a little example here: If it was a smaller hurricane that was going to hit Miami and they advised everyone to head west, only for the track to change and it go up the west coast where everyone evacuated to, then everyone would've been thrown into the storm rather than steered away from it.
Another, maybe better example: The hurricane was supposed to stay east and head up towards South Carolina. Many of the evacuees headed Northwest towards Atlanta. Where is the hurricane tracking...towards Atlanta! Sure, it'll only be a Cat 1 or a Tropical Strom by the time it gets up there, but it shows that the days of pre-planning and constant forecasting only continued to put people in harms way, not out of the way.
After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.
Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths. We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts. 3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers. Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state. That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.
The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather". And they are right about that. But they can predict the weather. And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.
http://twitter.com/pascosheriff/status/906712903868469249
Pretty good article "Why didn't Hurricane Irma kill more Americans? Thank the meteorologists"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html)
Odd and misinformed article.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/09/14/hurricane-jose-ambles-toward-u-s-coast-but-likely-head-north-offshore/665135001/
Update hurricane Jose is at play.
Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.
Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.
Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.
Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.
Jose's track now a little farther east. Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands. Only concerns are rip currents and rain.
As of the 11 am (Monday) National Hurricane Center Hose update, Cape Cod and Islands, and most of coastal Massachusetts currently under tropical storm warning for winds and rainJose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.
Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.
Jose's track now a little farther east. Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands. Only concerns are rip currents and rain.
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect. :eyebrow:Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
Today.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled. It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2. Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
Today.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled. It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2. Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect. :eyebrow:Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
Today.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled. It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2. Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect. :eyebrow:Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
Today.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled. It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2. Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
That's their JOB!
We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.
With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on. Many lives depend on their accuracy.
So yes, I expect them to be perfect.
Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street. We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.
Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled. It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2. Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect. :eyebrow:Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
Today.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled. It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2. Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
That's their JOB!
We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.
With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on. Many lives depend on their accuracy.
So yes, I expect them to be perfect.
Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street. We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.
Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.
We still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense. We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.
Who said I'm forecasting the weather, or want to forecast the weather? I said I want those whose job it is to forecast it to forecast it.QuoteWe still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense. We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.
If a storm is known to become more intense, then that should be forecasted. That's really the whole point of a forecast. Also, not all storms suddenly get more intense. This year has been unusual with several Cat 5 storms, but we've had 13 named storms so far. Many weren't even hurricanes, showing that not all storms get instance.
The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard. Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the analogy fails totally.
Maria sweeps through the Antilles, headed to Puerto Rico and on a similar Northwest path like Irma...this is of special concern for the Bahamas and a serious matter for Florida. The problem is we're not going to get a specific path on any hurricane tracking model. Maria is thought to be a threat to the Carolinas and Georgia as well the east coast of Florida, esp. north of Miami, a more populated urban/metro area than where Irma's eye made landfall.
The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard. Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the analogy fails totally.
^^^^^^ this
Then why do we have several hundreds of pages of signage issues?
Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.
Harvey hit a red part of Texas (yes, Houston proper is blue, but red areas were hit more than blue, even accounting for population).
Irma (at least the eye) hit more red areas than blue areas in Florida.
Jose avoided the United States, but it would have hit blue areas (Massachusetts/Rhode Island) if it did hit.
Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.
Result? Mother Nature is making sure that Texas, Florida, and North Carolina will be blue in 2020.
Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.
Laying aside the politics, that scenario doesn't appear to be likely. The latest update shows Maria curving back into the Atlantic. '
Well... just updated. Nate is now a 75 mph Cat 1. I’m betting it’ll reach Cat 2.
TD-18 has formed just south of CubaAlthough it came and went, it developed into Philippe. Next name is Rina... should’ve found a better replacement name for Rita.
TD-18 has formed just south of CubaAlthough it came and went, it developed into Philippe. Next name is Rina... should’ve found a better replacement name for Rita.
Harvey the costliest storm on record. Wow.
Yup, cyclone Berguitta in the Southwest Indian. So far the Southern Hemisphere has had the following storms:
Tropical Storm Cempaka (Australia but named by Indonesia, not tracked by the JTWC)
Tropical Storm Dahlia (Australia but again named by Indonesia)
Cyclone Ava, category 2 (Southwest Indian)
Cyclone Irving, category 2 (Formed in Australia but quickly crossed into the Southwest Indian)
Tropical Storm Joyce (Australia, somehow managed to survive overland for a long time)
In addition we already had the first storm of the Northwest Pacific (or as I call it the "Typhoon Pacific"), Tropical Storm Bolaven (known in the Philippines as Agaton and never considered a storm by the JTWC). Last year there were fewer category 5 typhoons (only the long-lasting Noru) than category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic (Irma and Maria).
Nice to see another hurricane tracker. I haven't been really active lately, having shifted my focus to running. I created this thread mainly for Atlantic hurricanes, as obviously the audience of this forum would be more interested on them, even though I decided to open this to anything anywhere. However, I have some idiosyncrasies, such as I always estimate wind speeds in a 10 minute lapse as recommended by the WMO, and thus they are about 1.14 times lower than JTWC's 1 minute estimates. For example I consider Cebile to have peaked at 115 mph, which matches Meteo-France advisories.Good to see another one too. I prefer 1-min winds over 10 min, because It’s a lot easier to track those kind of winds.
02W decided to became a Tropical Storm, and received the name Sanba. Gita is also nearly a Cat 5 on the Australian Scale...Category 5 on the AU Scale now. Cat 4 on the SSHWS.
Notice the Australian scale has no "tropical storm" designation, instead using category 1 tropical cyclone already when a system reaches gale force. I refer to (AU) categories 1 and 2 together as "tropical storm", only changing to "tropical cyclone" once they reach category 3 (i.e. hurricane force). Now I think, the SSHWS doesn't have a "strong tropical storm" category like the rest of the World.I consider 60 mph to 73 mph as strong TS on my personal modified SSHWS. Only other changes: CAT 5 is 155-176. CAT 6: 177-199. CAT 7: 200+
Now named: Tropical storm Kelvin. Add 273.15 and you have TS Celsius. If you then multiply by 1.8 and substract 32, you'll obtain TS Fahrenheit.
Now named: Tropical storm Kelvin. Add 273.15 and you have TS Celsius. If you then multiply by 1.8 and substract 32, you'll obtain TS Fahrenheit.
And he did the impossible, intensifying to 90 mph over land!
Bill (2015) survived as a TD over land for at least 36 hours.Now named: Tropical storm Kelvin. Add 273.15 and you have TS Celsius. If you then multiply by 1.8 and substract 32, you'll obtain TS Fahrenheit.
And he did the impossible, intensifying to 90 mph over land!
TS Julia (2016) can relate to that for forming on land.
It will be an oxymoron when Hola (Spanish for hello) dissipates or goes extratropical :sombrero:.
Finally got a weather radio for my birthday. (It's today)Well then, happy birthday! I have a feeling you'll enjoy that
Will Iris ever die? It keeps regenerating.
As I've said many times earlier, I won't recognize subtropical systems, and as such I won't recognize Alberto unless it becomes fully tropical, thus creating a situation like I have in 2007 where I start from Barry (leaving Andrea unused until 2013).
As I've said many times earlier, I won't recognize subtropical systems, and as such I won't recognize Alberto unless it becomes fully tropical, thus creating a situation like I have in 2007 where I start from Barry (leaving Andrea unused until 2013).Alberto is now a TD.
Yup, but anyway it should have remained unnamed, as it was not tropical while a storm and not a storm while tropical. Thus I'll be marking Alberto as unused this year, much like Nicole 2004 (and thus jumping from Matthew to Otto in the end) and Andrea 2007 (thus starting with Barry).
More "unrecognitions" from me. This time I don't recognize what the JTWC called "tropical storm" 07W back in mid June, simply because it was an extratropical low embedded within a stationary front (as analyzed by Japan).
So when Did Hector decide to become a step away from Cat 5?
Lane now category 5!!! Now that's crazy (but not unseen, the longest-lasting tropical cyclone ever, hurricane/typhoon John of 1994, was also a cat. 5 South of Hawaii).Amazing.
Florence pulled a surprise, intensifying to Category24 status.
The remnants of Gordon could hit Chicago towards the weekend based on current tracks, marking the first time in 10 years we've had two tropical systems hit the area. 2008 had Gustav and Ike, and we had Alberto earlier this season.
WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared. Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south. Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today. Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south.
WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared. Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south. Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today. Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south.
The West Virginia Turnpike needs 6 lanes thruout, IMHO. Very busy highway steadily getting busier. Yeah, I know it would be very expensive construction, especially the northern part.
I have a bad feeling this is going to make Matthew look like a mere nuisance.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/matthew-river-flooding-carolina-records
I have a bad feeling this is going to make Matthew look like a mere nuisance.That seems to he a pattern recently: Ivan to Katrina, Irene to Sandy, now Matthew to Irma/this.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/matthew-river-flooding-carolina-records
Hurricane Warnings May be extended into Southern SC and GA within the hour.Right now though, the wind field is expanding and causing the pressure drop, which might be worse news in this case than getting the storm up to 150 mph.
I-26 is contraflowed. A lot of the models aren’t saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall. After replacing its eyewall, Florence is back up to intensifying... and could be all the way to landfall.
A lot of the models aren’t saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.
Apparently FLorence is now a Category 3 storm according to this update.
A lot of the models aren’t saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.
Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.
A lot of the models aren’t saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.
Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.
Possibly. It also depends on what her pressure is, and what time of day she comes ashore - low tide or high tide. If we get lucky, then she comes ashore with a higher pressure at low tide.
Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.
If Florence were a category 4 hurricane but half its current size, it probably would do less damage overall than a category 2 Florence of the current size.
Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.
Where do you get that wind field size data from? Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds. Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.
Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.
Where do you get that wind field size data from? Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds. Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.
Weather channel on tv (can't find it on their website) said TS winds extend 170 miles out from the center. NHC puts the cumulative probability of Richmond getting a 39 mph sustained wind at 31% .
Florence is down to a Cat 2 but wind field is now 80 miles for hurrivane force and 195 for TS force.
Honestly this is worse than a cat 4 coming ashore here. NHC is also calling for a 110 mph landfall, I'm a little skeptical of that as the shear won't subside for another 12 hours at least.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/211950-typhoon-ompong-pagasa-forecast-september-13-2018-11pm
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/39082319/philippines-starts-massive-evacuations-as-huge-typhoon-nears
A typhoon alert has been issued for Philippines for Typhoon Mangkhut
Florence down to a Cat 1.
We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC
https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman
Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.
https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman[Bullshit]Our first priority is always the safety and well-being of our staff [/bullshit]
Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.
If that was their first priority, they wouldn't be putting their staff and reporters in dangerous situations in the first place, using the 2nd Amendment as their justification for doing so. They could've easily located a few days ago.
Super Typhoon Mangkhut (equivalent to a Category 5) is about to make landfall in Luzon with 165 mph winds, after peaking with 180 mph.
We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC
Who says? Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.
Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NCWho says? Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29"). http://hurricanes.gov
Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NCWho says? Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29"). http://hurricanes.gov
Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm. The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).
If you mean the Weather Channel, yeah I'd hype up the storm for ratings as well cause that's what TWC turned into. NWS and NHC tuned the track and strength as needed when new data came in and got the message out to get people out of the way of danger. They gave North Carolina a week's worth of lead time before landfall to prepare and evacuate. I say that's a job well done for the NHC and NWS local officesSays satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm. The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29"). http://hurricanes.gov
That's why it's called the Cone of Uncertainty and that they always put in the message "Monitor latest forecasts for track and strength changes". They make the cone that big based on model plots and the size of the hurricane at the time of the advisory to show how large of an area it could affect. So yes, early on it had a possible landfall between Richmond and the SC/GA border. But as the week went on, it shrunk the cone as accuracy improved. Would you rather give people only a couple days heads up to evacuate or at least a week to least have people take notice that there could be a landfall and begin to make a plan of action and monitor the latest track? That's not fear mongering, that's just getting the message out. I believe VA was cleared out of the landfall cone by late Tuesday/early Wed and that many of the supplies gathered in case Florence went north got stockpiled and now will be used to help with the CarolinasIf you mean the Weather Channel, yeah I'd hype up the storm for ratings as well cause that's what TWC turned into. NWS and NHC tuned the track and strength as needed when new data came in and got the message out to get people out of the way of danger. They gave North Carolina a week's worth of lead time before landfall to prepare and evacuate. I say that's a job well done for the NHC and NWS local officesSays satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm. The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29"). http://hurricanes.gov
NHC meaning National Hurricane Center which is part of NOAA which is National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which is part of US Dept of Commerce. Yeah I know the structure, not sure why you listed them out
You creatively snipped the list of Wilmington local data that I compiled in realtime. They reported 72 mph which is a lot lower than 90 mph and is not even hurricane strength. Only 2 hours did it even get above the 60s. Well yeah, I didn't want the quote to take up half an internet page
Sorry, but scaring the whole middle Atlantic area with Fake Forecasts of a high Cat 4 hitting N.C. is not a responsible way to alert the population to take measures. It is very irresponsible and is driven by scare politicization. I live 120 miles from the Atlantic but I know how nasty things can get even here from when a storm comes ashore in N.C., and I don't need or appreciate this tommyrot. The National Weather Service actually had a forecast several days before landfall that Richmond on Thursday "hurricane conditions possible", that would be 74+ mph sustained winds.
That's why it's called the Cone of Uncertainty and that they always put in the message "Monitor latest forecasts for track and strength changes". They make the cone that big based on model plots and the size of the hurricane at the time of the advisory to show how large of an area it could affect. So yes, early on it had a possible landfall between Richmond and the SC/GA border. But as the week went on, it shrunk the cone as accuracy improved. Would you rather give people only a couple days heads up to evacuate or at least a week to least have people take notice that there could be a landfall and begin to make a plan of action and monitor the latest track? That's not fear mongering, that's just getting the message out.
If you mean the Weather Channel, yeah I'd hype up the storm for ratings as well cause that's what TWC turned into. NWS and NHC tuned the track and strength as needed when new data came in and got the message out to get people out of the way of danger. They gave North Carolina a week's worth of lead time before landfall to prepare and evacuate. I say that's a job well done for the NHC and NWS local officesSays satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm. The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29"). http://hurricanes.gov
NHC meaning National Hurricane Center which is part of NOAA which is National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which is part of US Dept of Commerce.
You creatively snipped the list of Wilmington local data that I compiled in realtime. They reported 72 mph which is a lot lower than 90 mph and is not even hurricane strength. Only 2 hours did it even get above the 60s.
Sorry, but scaring the whole middle Atlantic area with Fake Forecasts of a high Cat 4 hitting N.C. is not a responsible way to alert the population to take measures. It is very irresponsible and is driven by scare politicization. I live 120 miles from the Atlantic but I know how nasty things can get even here from when a storm comes ashore in N.C., and I don't need or appreciate this tommyrot. The National Weather Service actually had a forecast several days before landfall that Richmond on Thursday "hurricane conditions possible", that would be 74+ mph sustained winds.
That's why it's called the Cone of Uncertainty and that they always put in the message "Monitor latest forecasts for track and strength changes". They make the cone that big based on model plots and the size of the hurricane at the time of the advisory to show how large of an area it could affect. So yes, early on it had a possible landfall between Richmond and the SC/GA border. But as the week went on, it shrunk the cone as accuracy improved. Would you rather give people only a couple days heads up to evacuate or at least a week to least have people take notice that there could be a landfall and begin to make a plan of action and monitor the latest track? That's not fear mongering, that's just getting the message out.
I wasn't discussing the size of the cone, I was discussing the intensity. A storm that is barely Cat 1 will have vastly lower effects in wind damage and storm surge, as compared to a high Cat 4. Given the extreme rarity of any Cat 4 storm making landfall in N.C., yes it was fear mongering, pure and simple, any way you slice it.
Everyone in the Richmond metro please check in when you get a chance (Tornado outbreak)
Other than two tornadoes coming within about a mile of my house, I'm fine. Apparently there were four confirmed tornadoes in Chesterfield County alone, including the particularly destructive one near Hull Street Road and Genito Road that killed one person and injured another (that tornado was probably the biggest/widest one I've ever seen around here).
Was part of the remnants of Florence for sure. Some of the videos coming out of VA were intense! :wow:
Was part of the remnants of Florence for sure. Some of the videos coming out of VA were intense! :wow:
How would we conclude that when the TD center was in Massachusetts? I've seen weather like that before in central VA when there was no TS activity within a thousand miles.
A viewer posted on one of the stations' fb page a picture of 2 tornadoes going at once, looks like the pic was taken from one of the high rises downtown. Pretty scary stuff.
Was part of the remnants of Florence for sure. Some of the videos coming out of VA were intense! :wow:
How would we conclude that when the TD center was in Massachusetts? I've seen weather like that before in central VA when there was no TS activity within a thousand miles.
Richmond Slimes-Dispatch website
Has anyone heard from slorydn? I know he lives in that area. To everyone else, please be safe.
We know the Carolinas are going to get plenty of federal aid after Florence, and both DOTs are going to use it to rebuild their roads and railway lines. And those of us familiar enough with I-95 know about the remaining low bridge zone from Exit 65 in Godwin to Exit 75 north of Dunn. So my question for everybody here is; Should NCDOT raise I-95 above the roads that it currently runs under?
Okay, but even if they decide against it, you have to admit they can't leave that 14'2" trucker's obstacle course this way forever.We know the Carolinas are going to get plenty of federal aid after Florence, and both DOTs are going to use it to rebuild their roads and railway lines. And those of us familiar enough with I-95 know about the remaining low bridge zone from Exit 65 in Godwin to Exit 75 north of Dunn. So my question for everybody here is; Should NCDOT raise I-95 above the roads that it currently runs under?
Have NCDOT conduct an engineering study and see what would be involved to raise it above the flood levels of the current as well as in Oct. 2016 when this section was flooded. How much fill, how much bridgework, etc., calculate the cost. Then decide the cost effectiveness, may be affordable, maybe not.
Two additional EF0 tornadoes were confirmed in the City of Richmond on Monday, bringing the total number to 8.
Two additional EF0 tornadoes were confirmed in the City of Richmond on Monday, bringing the total number to 8.
The NWS site still lists 6 so apparently it needs to be updated. Looks like only one was in the City of Richmond, in the metro area there was one in Hanover County, one in Powhatan County, two in Chesterfield County. It lists one in Meckenburg County but that is 70+ miles from Richmond.
Okay, but even if they decide against it, you have to admit they can't leave that 14'2" trucker's obstacle course this way forever.We know the Carolinas are going to get plenty of federal aid after Florence, and both DOTs are going to use it to rebuild their roads and railway lines. And those of us familiar enough with I-95 know about the remaining low bridge zone from Exit 65 in Godwin to Exit 75 north of Dunn. So my question for everybody here is; Should NCDOT raise I-95 above the roads that it currently runs under?
Have NCDOT conduct an engineering study and see what would be involved to raise it above the flood levels of the current as well as in Oct. 2016 when this section was flooded. How much fill, how much bridgework, etc., calculate the cost. Then decide the cost effectiveness, may be affordable, maybe not.
Walaka is now a Cat 5. The 2nd or 3rd in tue Central Pacific this year and still poised to strengthen.And Kong-Rey at the same time in the WPAC!
LG-TP260
Just 'a typhoon'? That typhoon has (or had, as it has become extratropical or 'post-tropical' as the NHC likes to say) a name: Trami. However in the Philippines they somehow don't recognize these names and instead use their own scheme, under which Trami was known as Paeng.
We have now reached the end of the Hawaiian list 36 years after it was established with hurricane Walaka. The next name to be used in the so-called Central Pacific is Akoni, which was the inaugural name in 1982.
1st time 2 systems have been at Category 5 strength at the same time since 1998, when Cyclones Susan and Ron were both Cat 5’s.Walaka is now a Cat 5. The 2nd or 3rd in tue Central Pacific this year and still poised to strengthen.And Kong-Rey at the same time in the WPAC!
LG-TP260
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.
And of course, Sandy in 2012.
I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.
I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.
Why do you always hope for the worst?
Why do you always hope for the worst?It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
Why do you always hope for the worst?It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old. You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes. I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things. I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms. They are not an abstract subject.
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old. You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes. I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things. I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms. They are not an abstract subject.Beltway, I think you're reading into things and then changing the reason for your argument isn't necessary. Yes, hurricanes suck and blow and create havoc, disruption, and loss of life.
(And as a former Floridian, I've been through many more swirly-gigs than that.)
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.
And of course, Sandy in 2012.
Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.
Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.
Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy made landfall as an extratropical system.Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.
And of course, Sandy in 2012.
Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.
What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.
Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy made landfall as an extratropical system.Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.
And of course, Sandy in 2012.
Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.
What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.
Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Billions of damage have little to do with the structure of the storm and more to the trend of building into risky areas, as far as I understand.
Why do you always hope for the worst?It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old. You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes. I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things. I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms. They are not an abstract subject.
Sandy wasn’t even tropical anymore when it made landfall.Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.
And of course, Sandy in 2012.
Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.
What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.
Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old. You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes. I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things. I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms. They are not an abstract subject.Why do you always hope for the worst?It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.
Thank you for clarifying. To all who have had to deal with sever weatjer events, I'm sorry you've had to go through with that experience.Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old. You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes. I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things. I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms. They are not an abstract subject.Why do you always hope for the worst?It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.
There was no personal attack meant or tendered. Let's just say that it is a sensitive subject given the number of such storms that I have suffered thru, including severe after effects of others that didn't come thru my area. I forgot to mention Gaston of 2004, almost no winds when it got here but dumped catastrophic amounts of rain that caused severe flooding.
Why do you always start arguments in EVERY THREAD YOU ARE IN?I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.
Why do you always hope for the worst?
Why do you always start arguments in EVERY THREAD YOU ARE IN?I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.Why do you always hope for the worst?
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point. 4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3. It's almost a category 5 storm. It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear. 4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast. Now I know I should have listened to my instinct. People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.
Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow. But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often. The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark. No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees. However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees. Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.
Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow. But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often. The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark. No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees. However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees. Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point. 4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3. It's almost a category 5 storm. It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear. 4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast. Now I know I should have listened to my instinct. People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point. 4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3. It's almost a category 5 storm. It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear. 4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast. Now I know I should have listened to my instinct. People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.
This actually has been a constant pattern of late. Over the past 2 years, numerous storms have been predicted to hit a certain windspeed by a certain time, only to have it increase greatly.
The biggest issue is weather forecasters aren't held to any degree of standard, at least in the public eye. If anything, weather forecasters get the sympathic vote, because "you can't control the weather" and "they try their hardest". None of that flies in my book. They literally have one job: Predict the weather. Unlike nearly anything else, weather has existed since the beginning of time. The amount of data out there is obscene. And yet, weather forecasts are amateurishly wrong at times.
Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow. But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often. The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark. No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees. However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees. Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.
And when it comes to it, people don't really understand forecasts anyway. I watch a forum for a resort island area. People book their trips a year out. But they never look at the forecast until 3 weeks before they go on their trip, only to see a weather map showing nothing but thunderstorms and rain. First, they ask how the weather is today because they're going away in a few weeks. Today's weather has absolutely no impact on anything tomorrow, much less a few weeks away. The chances of a non-stop week's worth of thunderstorms is zero, and when it does happen it occurs for very short periods of time, but people freak out thinking their entire vacation will be ruined. In the few instances they actually report back after their trip, usually they acknowledge that the weather was sunny except for a few showers.
So, anyway, the point of my rant is this: The forecasters once again were wrong in their predictions. But they're not held accountable in any way, shape or form, so they will continue to have no reason to improve. If anything, local mayors and state governors will get the brunt of the criticism if there's any problems, even though they best they could do was listen to the very same weather forecasts and prepare based on what they know.
There is also the fact that forecasts change over time. A 60% chance of rain for 9am tomorrow morning might become an 80% chance by the midnight before, a 90% chance by 6am, and eventually reach a 100% chance by 9am (i.e., it is raining). But if people are standing around at 9am in the rain saying, "hey, there's only a 60% chance it's raining right now," they're not quite understanding the situation…
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point. 4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3. It's almost a category 5 storm. It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear. 4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast. Now I know I should have listened to my instinct. People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.
The models and NHC don't do well often with rapid intensification. I know it is hard to predict, but I feel like it is easier than what they predicict. Even the 125 mph storm I predicted would happen was too low and I was above all the guidance.
They did this with Harvey last year. And Patricia was record worst with the error rates (100+ mph just 36 hours out).
LG-TP260
Oh, the weather forecaster? They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain. They were correct. They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain. They were correct! And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.
This is where forecasting in advance becomes important: Let's say I want to do an event this weekend. Let's say, for fun, I'm gonna rent an open-air bus and have a road-enthusiast meeting. We all look at the forecast and Saturday looks to be a nice day - mostly sunny, with a 20% chance of rain in the early morning. We all meet up at 10am and board the bus. Except, a cold front expected to remain 100 miles to the south crept north, and now it's raining on us. The bus can't continue because he doesn't run in bad conditions. The rental fee was non-refundable, so I'm out several hundred bucks. The attendees all saw the forecast and didn't bring any rain gear. We can't do our trip, and I'm out several hundred dollars, because the forecast wasn't correct.
[…]
Oh, the weather forecaster? They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain. They were correct. They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain. They were correct!
And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.
People tend to think that a forecast is a specific outcome, and that if that exact outcome doesn't occur, the forecast was wrong. But forecasts are actually ranges and probabilities; just for a basic example, a 60% chance of rain means a 40% chance of not raining. So if it rains, that was one of the possible outcomes, and the forecast was correct. If it doesn't rain, that was another possible outcome, so the forecast is still correct.
https://www.al.com/news/bcb500-hurricane-michael-live-updates-latest-on-path-track-landfall.html
Update Hurricane Michael is heading to Alabama.
Per weather.com --https://www.al.com/news/bcb500-hurricane-michael-live-updates-latest-on-path-track-landfall.htmlPer weather.com --
Update Hurricane Michael is heading to Alabama.
Dothan, AL
NNW 39 mph currently
WNW 48 mph peak speed at 11:00 pm
With an ace of 111.5, the 2018 atlantic hurricane season is now guaranteed to be an above average season. So much for that 10% chance prediction back in August.I agreed with the 10% too. El Niño was supposed to be a moderating influence. Suddenly we have three hurricanes simultaneously in October (well, 2H+1TS). Maybe it just failed to materialize despite the likelihood foreseen as late as July?
Hyperactive is at or above 156 ace.
Per weather.com --Per weather.com --
Dothan, AL
NNW 39 mph currently
WNW 48 mph peak speed at 11:00 pm
Valdosta, GA
S 44 mph currently, forecast declining winds
Bainbridge, GA
WSW 48 mph currently, forecast declining winds
Dothan, AL
NW 44 mph currently, forecast declining winds
Thomasville, GA
SW 47 mph currently, forecast declining winds
The coast is wrecked. I think a Cat 5 landfall happened.
it could be upgraded to cat 5 in postseason analysis
I heard Michael wrecked Northern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula too. The weird thing is that most of the DOT websites have been saying the roads are clear, aside from some trees that crashed down onto them.
Meanwhile I'm watching closely hurricane Leslie as it could threaten the Western Canary Islands. The AEMET (the Spanish equivalent of the NWS) has already issued a special advisory.
James River at Richmond-Westham
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2
That is a couple miles from my house.
I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.
I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.
Lots of power outages in the Richmond area, probably about 20% at the beginning. I just got mine back after 48 hours without. Crews from New Brunswick repaired the damage on the line behind my house which serves about 20 homes.
With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.
1971 is what "reliable" records go to in the epacWith an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.
How far back do the 'records' go … back before weather satellites, and especially before weather aircaft full coverage, some cyclones never came near land and remained unknown by humans. I don't follow the eastern Pacific but I do follow the North Atlantic on NOAA NHC and that is certainly the case there.
With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.
Random spam
Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (We’ve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5The forecast from the NHC isn't even updated yet. This isn't looking good. Good chance of hitting cat 5, but I don't think it will make landfall above a cat 3.
Cat 5 now.
ATCF, or the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System.Cat 5 now.
Where are you seeing this? The NHC website is still saying 155 mph for me. Although I think NHC should have upgraded it...
Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (We’ve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.
Even the NHC has slipped and called it "Wilma" :sombrero::Quote from: NHC's forecast discussion on hurricane Willa no. 10An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.
Wilma is retired in the Atlantic only. It could still replace Willa in the Eastern Pacific if needed. There are several names in the Eastern Pacific lists that have been retired in the Atlantic before the start of current lists (Celia and Dora come to mind). I wonder what NHC would do in the improbable case a storm named Celia makes it across the isthmus of Tehuantepec.
NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.
The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.
It is rare but a storm could cross Central America and have existed in both basins. So that is a reason why to not utilize a name that has been retired from one of the basins.
]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.
]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.
Apparently it is possible, but there are no known examples yet.
https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/ASK/hurricanes.html
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed. However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed. However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction....to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed. However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction....to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.
You just posted that it was theoretically possible in a post this morning.
As expected, Florence and Michael have fallen off the Atlantic list and have been replaced with Francine and Milton. This means no original F names are left on the lists. There is exactly one original I name remaining: Isaac. No names have been retired in the Eastern Pacific East of 140°W.
And I thought it was impossible for the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5 for more than two years in a row. This has not happened before.
And I thought it was impossible for the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5 for more than two years in a row. This has not happened before.Both basins are in their respective active cycles though. And yes it has, 2003-2005 (Isabel, Ike, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma).
And I thought it was impossible for the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5 for more than two years in a row. This has not happened before.Both basins are in their respective active cycles though. And yes it has, 2003-2005 (Isabel, Ivan, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma).
Both basins are in their respective active cycles though. And yes it has, 2003-2005 (Isabel, Ivan, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma).
I'm more surprised that it was the first time in a while if ever that the Atlantic and E/C Pacific have both had a CAT 5 in the same season.
Again a subtropical storm? Why they name them, if they aren't tropical? And again Andrea, I don't recognize the 2007 iteration exactly because of that, instead considering that season started with Barry. At least last year I rescued Alberto as it was reanalysed to be a fully tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.Is there a reason Andrea was skipped?
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.Is there a reason Andrea was skipped?
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.
Run, Barry, run!
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could-be-hit-with-9-major-hurricanes-this-year-experts-say/amp/
And the award for most outrageous/overexaggerated headline is...
SM-J737T
In the forecast, five to nine hurricanes are expected to hit stateside, with at least two of those classified as “major hurricanes.”
Atlantic is really quiet this year. Only today Tropical Storm Chantal has formed. IMO it should have been Barry, as Andrea wasn't a tropical storm per the Tropical Cyclone Report and thus it shouldn't have been named (In fact of the three iterations of Andrea so far I only recognize the 2013 one as it was the only Andrea to be fully tropical).
Atlantic is really quiet this year.
Atlantic is really quiet this year. Only today Tropical Storm Chantal has formed. IMO it should have been Barry, as Andrea wasn't a tropical storm per the Tropical Cyclone Report and thus it shouldn't have been named (In fact of the three iterations of Andrea so far I only recognize the 2013 one as it was the only Andrea to be fully tropical).Meh, I'll follow the NHC's naming policies. There's no reason subtropical storms shouldn't be named.
I'm seeing hurricane Dorian right between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It may impact Florida as a major hurricane early next week...Oh, it will impact Florida.
Dorian now Category 5!!! There had never been four consecutive years with a Cat. 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before.Seems to be more in the ocean than the land but things can change. Just keep watching!!!
Dorian now Category 5!!! There had never been four consecutive years with a Cat. 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before.Seems to be more in the ocean than the land but things can change. Just keep watching!!!
It's now the meteorological mid-point of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season.Only two of them actually have Invest designations. The one closest to the US, 95L, has a 60% chance. 94L is located close to Barbados, that probably won’t form. And the unnumbered system just off the African coastline needs to be watched closely, most models have that storm either striking Florida or the Bahamas.
While Dorian was obviously the big focus, three more cyclones - Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle, popped up in the atlantic. Only Fernand directly impacted land as a cyclone, striking northeast Mexico.
As of 8:00 EDT Today, 9/11/19, there are three "Invests" in the Atlantic, only one of which the NHC has more than a 20 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone.
There's an invest in the Eastern Pacific that the NHC thinks is really good to become a Tropical Cyclone (90 percent)
a fish-spinner, with a chance of impacting Bermuda
contradiction in terms
The Atlantic has had five new tropical storms in just 10 days! Now that is crazy, or the season's peak.
Still, Kiko has been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday.
Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end.
Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end. A weird one, where my list of storms starts with Barry (skipping Andrea) and ends with Pablo and Sebastien (skipping Rebekah, thus Sebastien should have been Pablo). Chantal will remain in the list again thanks to a subtropical storm (which IMO shouldn't be named), it was spared from retirement in 2007 along with Erin and Melissa, and looks like Dorian will be struck down.
It appears hurricane season has started a couple weeks early.. Tropical Storm ARTHUR has become the first named storm of the season. It is somewhat close to the coast, but will curve back in to the ocean.
Yes, I know this thread hasn't been replied to in months, but there hasn't been a hurricane in a long time, either.
Didn't the season start early last year, as well?
Didn't the season start early last year, as well?
Yep. So did the 2018 season. And the 2017 season. And the 2016 season. And the 2015 season, too.
It appears hurricane season has started a couple weeks early.. Tropical Storm ARTHUR has become the first named storm of the season. It is somewhat close to the coast, but will curve back in to the ocean.
Yes, I know this thread hasn't been replied to in months, but there hasn't been a hurricane in a long time, either.
Didn't the season start early last year, as well?
Yep. So did the 2018 season. And the 2017 season. And the 2016 season. And the 2015 season, too.
They claim it's the 6th year in a row the Atlantic has started too early. I don't think so, because I don't include subtropical storms and thus I consider the first storm in 2019 (Barry, which should have been Andrea) to have formed on July 11 instead, more than a month into the season.
2020 Names:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
So how are they wrong based on what you think?
So how are they wrong based on what you think?They aren't by any means wrong. I respect their decisions, but I disagree with some, like the naming of subtropical storms. They are "almost, but not quite tropical", so I don't see the point of giving them names from the same list as fully tropical ones.
It's the first official day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we have our third tropical cyclone in the Gulf. It looks like TD 3 may get up to storm strength.It may become a hurricane in the gulf too, some models have been forecasting a pressure in the 970s.
Lorenzo will join the 2005 iteration of Emily in the very short list of storms that reached category 5 and yet managed to survive in the naming list. Even further, Lorenzo will be the first such storm to have been operationally recognized as cat. 5, as Emily was only upgraded in the post-season reanalysis. I already theorized such a scenario where a category 5 monster doesn't get retired, and now I get to see it.It goes double for Emily as that one made landfall (as a Category 4). Emily (2005) is one of the most surprising non-retirements in hurricane naming.
Somehow, a low in the mid-latitudes managed to get organized enough to become Tropical Storm Dolly.
And CNGL’s grief about subtropical storm naming will have to wait for another day
The other two times we got four storms before the end of June, July saw no storms. Will that repeat again?
A tropical storm with a name I cannot pronounce (Isaias) may impact the east Florida coast, and then go up to the Carolinas.
A tropical storm with a name I cannot pronounce (Isaias) may impact the east Florida coast, and then go up to the Carolinas.
A tropical storm with a name I cannot pronounce (Isaias) may impact the east Florida coast, and then go up to the Carolinas.
Easy way to remember it is to recall the rapper who was considered the leader of rap group N.W.A.: The storm's name is pronounced sort of like "Eazy-E-Us," except the first vowel is not quite a long "e" sound (close enough for remembering how to say it, though). Every time I hear the weathermen here say it on the news it makes me think of Eazy-E.
A tropical storm with a name I cannot pronounce (Isaias) may impact the east Florida coast, and then go up to the Carolinas.
Easy way to remember it is to recall the rapper who was considered the leader of rap group N.W.A.: The storm's name is pronounced sort of like "Eazy-E-Us," except the first vowel is not quite a long "e" sound (close enough for remembering how to say it, though). Every time I hear the weathermen here say it on the news it makes me think of Eazy-E.
I thought Isaias was pronounced similar to Isaiah, but I guess I was wrong.
Isaias being a Spanish name, it's pretty straightforward for me :sombrero:. This name replaced Ike after 2008, however it went (barely) unused in 2014 as that year was the exact opposite of the current one, ending with Hanna.
Isaias being a Spanish name, it's pretty straightforward for me :sombrero:. This name replaced Ike after 2008, however it went (barely) unused in 2014 as that year was the exact opposite of the current one, ending with Hanna.
I think this is why Americans keep getting hung up with this pronunciation. Because English has extremely irregular pronunciation, and we therefore can't depend on an unknown native word to sound as it's spelled, we assume that's true when faced with foreign words, too. However, most European languages have very predictable pronunciation rules, Spanish in particular. Since that language is widely used in this country, just being aware that it's a Spanish name should lead to no trouble in pronouncing it.
Perhaps the National Weather Service should add "Easy to Pronounce" to their criteria for choosing storm names.
Perhaps the National Weather Service should add "Easy to Pronounce" to their criteria for choosing storm names.
Bad news: Laura survived Cuba fairly well and is about to move into an extremely favorable environment for intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is officially calling for a high-end category 2 landfall, although category 3 or 4 strength is definitely not out of the question. Currently, the most likely location for landfall is somewhere between Galveston, TX and Morgan City, LA.
1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and
all actions should be rushed to completion.
TWC is now saying that Lake Charles LA is expected to receive 15-20 FEET of storm surge. NWC office there has been evacuated. Hurricane is now Category 4 with 140 mph winds and 948 mb pressure.
At 11 EDT this morning (September 1, 2020) the NHC initiated advisories on "Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen." Within an hour and a half, the Hurricane Hunters determined that the system had realized its potential and became Tropical Storm Nana.
Meanwhile, we have a depression on the outswing that may still become an Omar.
The remaining names (Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred) have been on the list since the modern naming lists were implemented.
After this year there will be only one list remaining that hasn't gone past P (Peter, 2003)... and it will be used next year.
Omar is still kicking :-D :-D
Back in the Atlantic, one of the systems that had been projected to become a tropical cyclone became TD 17. Expect "Paulette" any day now :)
I'm predicting that 2020 will be the year forecasters are faced with the problem of choosing to retire a storm name that's a Greek letter. We might need to devise a better system for seasons with more than 20 named storms.
"Letters of the Greek alphabet that are used for tropical systems cannot be retired."
"Letters of the Greek alphabet that are used for tropical systems cannot be retired."
Well, of course they can't. If we started retiring Greek letters, how would Greek people be able to spell anything?
"Letters of the Greek alphabet that are used for tropical systems cannot be retired."
Well, of course they can't. If we started retiring Greek letters, how would Greek people be able to spell anything?
The number 42 has been retired. We still use the number.
"Letters of the Greek alphabet that are used for tropical systems cannot be retired."If there is a really really good reason, though... There may be workarounds - Aleph, Bet, Gimel, and Dalet from Herbew alphabet come to mind.
From https://www.wwltv.com/article/weather/accuweather/greek-alphabet-may-be-used-for-only-2nd-time-in-history-this-hurricane-season/507-91d0f8f1-4413-4444-9754-04d45de356b4
In the Western Pacific, they cycle through a list of names continuously and don't start over each year. I kind of think the US should do the same instead of using Greek letters. There doesn't seem to be a necessary reason to start over at "A" each year. (But I also don't think grids for highway numbering are necessary either, so maybe it's just me.)
In the Western Pacific, they cycle through a list of names continuously and don't start over each year. I kind of think the US should do the same instead of using Greek letters. There doesn't seem to be a necessary reason to start over at "A" each year. (But I also don't think grids for highway numbering are necessary either, so maybe it's just me.)
The first letter tells you if it's one of the earlier hurricanes or one of the later hurricanes. For example, just hearing the name Bob will tell me that it was very early in hurricane season.
In the Western Pacific, they cycle through a list of names continuously and don't start over each year. I kind of think the US should do the same instead of using Greek letters. There doesn't seem to be a necessary reason to start over at "A" each year. (But I also don't think grids for highway numbering are necessary either, so maybe it's just me.)
The first letter tells you if it's one of the earlier hurricanes or one of the later hurricanes. For example, just hearing the name Bob will tell me that it was very early in hurricane season.
Maybe the solution is to ditch the cutsie naming convention all together and name them like exoplanets.You mean for the right NOT to be used for naming? "Hurricane Sprite causes massive levee failures around New Orleans"?
"Tropical Storm 2020-M is forming in the Carribbean."
Alternate pitch: sell the naming rights to hurricanes to the highest bidder.
Think of the money one could raise in a bidding war between, say, Coke and Pepsi to name the next storm after the competition. :-D
No such thing as bad publicity. C'mon people, make it happen!
Maybe the solution is to ditch the cutsie naming convention all together and name them like exoplanets.You mean for the right NOT to be used for naming? "Hurricane Sprite causes massive levee failures around New Orleans"?
"Tropical Storm 2020-M is forming in the Carribbean."
Alternate pitch: sell the naming rights to hurricanes to the highest bidder.
Think of the money one could raise in a bidding war between, say, Coke and Pepsi to name the next storm after the competition. :-D
No such thing as bad publicity. C'mon people, make it happen!
I'm in favor of SEWIGuy's proposal here for one reason. While rotating A-Z lists may be attractive, I think it leads to problems when it comes to retiring names. Just look at the letter I. Usually the most destructive storms in a usual year happen around the tenth storm or so, which just so happens to be I's position in the alphabet. Think of all the nasty I-storms that have happened over the years. Irene, Isabel, Irma, Ivan, and Ike are just some of the worst I-storms.
If most deadly storms happen to occur when the Atlantic is on its tenth named storm, then coincidentally there should be lots of retired I-storms. The thing is, is that in the English language, there aren't many I-names that are popular, most of them are old-fashioned or obscure. This results in odd names such as Isaias and Imelda being used for storms (Remember how this thread blew up about Isaias's difficulty to pronounce?). The fact that the Atlantic basin is competing with the Eastern basin for names doesn't help matters at all.
The climax of my argument is that we may run out of good I-names eventually, and we may need to install a different naming system. Who wants hurricane Icarus?
The Washington Post had an article about using the Greek alphabet and the difficulty of retiring storm names from it. According to the article, one solution that has been officially debated in the past was creating another name list that would only be used when the main list for the year is exhausted (so after Wilbur would be the "A" name from the overflow list). Names could then be retired from the overflow list whenever needed.
Or have a list of names that go either way. https://www.mother.ly/child/top-50-gender-neutral-baby-names-youll-obsess-over-/particle-3The Washington Post had an article about using the Greek alphabet and the difficulty of retiring storm names from it. According to the article, one solution that has been officially debated in the past was creating another name list that would only be used when the main list for the year is exhausted (so after Wilbur would be the "A" name from the overflow list). Names could then be retired from the overflow list whenever needed.
Presumably, you'd need two such lists of names: one that begins with a male "A" name for lists 1, 3, and 5; and another that begins with a female "A" name for lists 2, 4, and 6. Also, if you have an overflow list, you could also move a name from the overflow list to the main list, and the new replacment name would be placed on the overflow list.
And for the second time ever, we have entered the Greek alphabet. Subtropical Storm Alpha has now formed...and is about to make landfall on, of all places, Portugal.Sounds like Mother Nature is giving CNGL her opinion on the naming of subtropical systems.
And for the second time ever, we have entered the Greek alphabet. Subtropical Storm Alpha has now formed...and is about to make landfall on, of all places, Portugal.
English | Greek | Hebrew | Cyrillic |
A | A | Glottal stop, but related to A | A |
B | V, but B doesn't have its own letter | B or V, depending on form | B |
C | G | G | V |
D | Voiced th, related to D | D | G |
E | E | Another glottal, but related to E | D |
E (ye in some cases) |
What's been interesting thus far in the 2020 season is that, while it rivals 2005 for the number of storms, it is far behind in the overall power of the season. Currently the accumulated cyclone energy is only about 84 units, well behind where it was in 2005 with a similar number of storms (250). There have been two category 4s, only one of which severely affected land (Laura). The other (Teddy) may hit land in Nova Scotia as a post-tropical storm or depression. There's been two category 2s (Paulette and Sally), neither of which I see being retired. Four category 1s, and 13 storms that never developed further. There are two storms out there, one of which is expected to stay a storm, then dissipate, and the other could become a hurricane (but I cannot imagine it being around long due to the lack of distance between it and land).
2005, by comparison, had four category 5s, one category 4, two category 3s, one category 2, six category 1s, and 13 that were only storms.
Funnily, when Ivan regenerated an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic was referred to as ex-Ivan by the FU Berlin (which has a long-standing tradition of naming highs and lows over Europe, thus resulting in most cyclones having two -or more- names now that meteorological agencies name them as well), thus giving two separate systems the same name. Now I've checked, at least they didn't name α with a real name before the NHC did so, it would have been funny otherwise.
Funnily, when Ivan regenerated an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic was referred to as ex-Ivan by the FU Berlin (which has a long-standing tradition of naming highs and lows over Europe, thus resulting in most cyclones having two -or more- names now that meteorological agencies name them as well), thus giving two separate systems the same name. Now I've checked, at least they didn't name α with a real name before the NHC did so, it would have been funny otherwise.
AIUI, there are two lists of names, one used by the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands; the other used by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium, and that a storm named by one agency will be recipricated by the others. Also, post-tropical storms will keep their NHC-issued names.
IOW, there should be less chance of a storm affecting Europe having more than one alias :)
It took a week or so, but we have a new TD in the Atlantic, which will likely become "Gamma."
The other wave is still code yellow, but up to 40% for days 3 to 5.
The other wave is still code yellow, but up to 40% for days 3 to 5.
There’s now two more code yellows, although they are below 20 percent for days 3-5.
iPhone
Delta quickly formed from nothing to become a Category 4 in less than 48 hours and is now threatening Louisiana.
Clearly, the only appropriate place for this storm to make landfall is the mouth of the Mississippi River.
yep, but that name originally belonged to a crop-dusting company in Mississippi Delta... They just abandoned the crop-dusting part of it.Clearly, the only appropriate place for this storm to make landfall is the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Atlanta. Anything named “Delta” always goes through Atlanta in the South.
Delta quickly formed from nothing to become a Category 4 in less than 48 hours and is now threatening Louisiana.
We’ll see what happens with Delta. The storm’s path keeps tracking westward. Yesterday, it was going over western Cuba. Today, it’s the Yucatán.
Well, since the Atlantic seems to be churning out Tropical Cyclones ad nauseam, I have to wonder: Should a tropical cyclone form between 15Z and 21Z on December 31, but doesn't strengthen to a Tropical Storm strength until after the calendar turns over (which I presume would be at 00Z), would it get a Greek Letter name, or would it become 'Ana?'https://xkcd.com/1126/
I think this is why Americans keep getting hung up with this pronunciation. Because English has extremely irregular pronunciation, and we therefore can't depend on an unknown native word to sound as it's spelled, we assume that's true when faced with foreign words, too. However, most European languages have very predictable pronunciation rules, Spanish in particular. Since that language is widely used in this country, just being aware that it's a Spanish name should lead to no trouble in pronouncing it.
You're making the invalid assumption that most Americans have some sense for how to pronounce Spanish words!
Eye went right over New Orleans this evening. Lots of damage being reported across SE Louisiana and southern Mississippi so far. Looks like it landfalled as a powerful cat 2 storm.
Eye went right over New Orleans this evening. Lots of damage being reported across SE Louisiana and southern Mississippi so far. Looks like it landfalled as a powerful cat 2 storm.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bumped up to cat 3 in post-analysis.
At any rate, this looks to be one of the most remarkable inland tropical-storm wind events we’ve seen in a long time. Tropical storm warnings extend northeast from the landfall point through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia (including Atlanta, where I am), Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia - all the way up to Lynchburg.
It is eerily calm here. Unless you looked at news or radar, you’d never guess a tropical storm was headed our way. Sure, it’s wet and sticky, but there is zero wind. That will change in a few hours.
I've noticed there hasn't been a single category 5 typhoon so far. It would be very weird if we end the year without one. This actually happened a few years ago... but after the fact, as operationally there was one that was downgraded in the post-season analysis.
And 185 miles per hour too!I've noticed there hasn't been a single category 5 typhoon so far. It would be very weird if we end the year without one. This actually happened a few years ago... but after the fact, as operationally there was one that was downgraded in the post-season analysis.
Not happening anymore. Typhoon Goni (known in the Philippines as Rolly) is now a category 5 monster.
Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season. This ties the record for storms set in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used in the Atlantic basin.
Well, we have tied 2005. At least I spell Greek storms with the actual letters (this one is Tropical storm η), otherwise I would spell this storm in all-caps (ETA) and call this storm a terrorist.
I wonder what the Estimated Time of Arrival is for ETA?
Scratch that, it managed to get up to 195 - the strongest landfall ever observed.And 185 miles per hour too!I've noticed there hasn't been a single category 5 typhoon so far. It would be very weird if we end the year without one. This actually happened a few years ago... but after the fact, as operationally there was one that was downgraded in the post-season analysis.
Not happening anymore. Typhoon Goni (known in the Philippines as Rolly) is now a category 5 monster.
I wonder what the Estimated Time of Arrival is for ETA?
12 noon on Tuesday for Central America :)
LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
The way the 2020 tropical season is going it wouldnt surprise me much if it ,made it back to the gulf & headed north. :-o
Θ (uppercase since I start a sentence) is now fully tropical, and thus 2020 is now per my reckoning (a bit later than NHC's since as you know I don't recognize subtropical storms) the year in which more tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic. It is almost a hurricane as well, and is heading towards... me!
Θ (uppercase since I start a sentence) is now fully tropical, and thus 2020 is now per my reckoning (a bit later than NHC's since as you know I don't recognize subtropical storms) the year in which more tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic. It is almost a hurricane as well, and is heading towards... me!
At what angle is theta approaching?
Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.
Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.
First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.
Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.
First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.
First Cat 5 that was designated as such when the storm was ongoing. I fully expect Laura and Eta to be revised to 5s in the post-season analysis.
When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.
When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.
Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.
When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.
Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.
Of the 31 Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2020, they've only completed the post-season reports for 13 of them as of this writing - and those were all short or low-impact systems. It's going to be a loooong time.
NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:I think that's a great idea considering all the storms recently before the month of June.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/
NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:I think that's a great idea considering all the storms recently before the month of June.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/
Dorian from 2019 (thus should have been retired last year, but the meeting was cancelled) and Laura are now gone. Dexter and Leah are in. Strange there was only one name retired from 2020, considering how crazy it was (I'm not counting the Greeks). As I expected, Lorenzo becomes the second Category 5 hurricane since current lists began to escape retirement. And as said, there's now a seventh list to be used in place of the Greek alphabet, also in the Eastern Pacific. They should have stitched all six lists together and used them without regard to the year like they do in the Western Pacific.Strangely enough, the only Greek names that were actually retired officially were Eta and Iota. I think Delta and Zeta both had a compelling case for retirement. Sally, too.
The Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek
Names beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists.
Maybe it's another way of saying Americans are dumb :DThe Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greekQuoteNames beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists.
Yet the new Pacific supplemental lists (https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/supplemental-list-of-tropical-cyclone-names-raiv) include X, Y, Z storm names... :hmm:
My bet is it won’t be a hurricane at this time when the final report eventually comes out. NHC is always generous with intensity estimates of weakening systems because they have to be careful with messaging - you don’t want people thinking “oh it’s only a tropical storm now I don’t need to worry about it” when the reality is there’s very little difference between a 70mph TS and a 75mph hurricane.I'd say that was the case in the Gulf. It definitely was a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, Barbados reported sustained hurricane-force winds.
I might get brushed by the remnants of Fred.
I might get brushed by the remnants of Fred.
That's what she said.
Henri made landfall in the northeast as a Category "Dispatch Jim Cantore" storm.I always feel bad when I see a storm stall out over land like Harvey did. Luckily New England escaped the worst.
Currently, there are three waves the NHC is keeping an eye on for a possible "Ida," though none of them show any indication of immediate tropical cyclone formation.The one in the eastern Caribbean has me the most concerned, as some of the forecast models bring it up into Texas as either a high-end tropical storm or a hurricane.
I always feel bad when I see a storm stall out over land like Harvey did. Luckily New England escaped the worst.
I always feel bad when I see a storm stall out over land like Harvey did. Luckily New England escaped the worst.
At one point Saturday, the Henri forecast was ugly for my location in CT, made moreso by virtue of my wife and I having been in Memphis for a week-and-a-half (my father's funeral and associated chores). The worst forecast called for hurricane-force gusts even up to Bradley Airport, and I had notices to expect a weeks-long power outage.
We got in Saturday evening to find the gas stations sold out and well over a hundred cherry-pickers staged at one of BDL's remote parking lots. We ended up planning to just take the evening to drop my antennas (ham radio) and do laundry, and then to bug out for upstate New York in the morning.
Then we woke up Sunday....and the forecast was different. We lost power for only a few hours and didn't see any worse wind than a 45mph gust. The rain was impressive though; looks like we got 4½ inches total for both passes of Henri.
Prediction: A Cat 5 will be in the Gulf by Sunday.Based on what I'm seeing, I think Ida has a chance to be worse for New Orleans than both Camille and Katrina. Shelters and hospitals won't have much capacity due to COVID; apparently several of New Orleans' water pumps are not working and a floodgate is down for maintenance; and forecasters and local officials aren't really stressing the urgency of this to the public. What's more, nearly every potential variable is working in Ida's favor, and it's supposed to slow down, dumping over a foot of rain on already-soaked southern Louisiana.
https://www.wafb.com/2021/08/28/hurricane-ida-will-be-strongest-storm-hit-louisiana-since-1850s-governor-warns/
You sure about that last statement :-/.https://www.wafb.com/2021/08/28/hurricane-ida-will-be-strongest-storm-hit-louisiana-since-1850s-governor-warns/
Strongest storm to hit Louisiana since the 1850s?? I think not.
Remember Laura just last year? That was 150 mph at its landfall on the Louisiana coast... which is stronger than any forecast has ever had for Ida.
You sure about that last statement :-/.https://www.wafb.com/2021/08/28/hurricane-ida-will-be-strongest-storm-hit-louisiana-since-1850s-governor-warns/
Strongest storm to hit Louisiana since the 1850s?? I think not.
Remember Laura just last year? That was 150 mph at its landfall on the Louisiana coast... which is stronger than any forecast has ever had for Ida.
I have cousins in LaPlace that are staying put. Not even this storm can get them to evacuate.
I have cousins in LaPlace that are staying put. Not even this storm can get them to evacuate.
Hope they are doing ok... Laplace appears to be where the worst of the flooding is
If Nora would've shifted a few miles west, couldn't it have been the first tropical cyclone to reach Arizona?
Weakening to a tropical storm, Nora crossed into the Desert Southwest of the United States.
Sustained winds of tropical storm force were recorded at Yuma. Although weakening to a
tropical depression as it moved across California and Arizona, the circulation aloft did not
have time to spin down.
Ida’s path deviated from what forecasters had predicted as recently as yesterday morning. However, we are confident we have taken every precaution and that we will weather this storm as we have others in the past. Please visit http://Tulane.edu/emergency for more information.
Meanwhile, we've got two more TDs in the Atlantic, and there's a wave still over Africa that the NHC is currently predicting a 70 percent chance of Development between 2 and 5 days out. We may just knock out Julian, Kate, and Larry in quick succession, and get the infamous "Cape Verde" storm.
Looks like Larry will be a "fish spinner." Maybe Bermuda will get some rain from it...https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/hurricane-larry-update-1.6166584
The northern eyewall of Nicholas went directly over my town at about 1am this morning. I woke up around that time and wondered why it was so quiet. All is fine here, but several friends have downed trees and there is minor wind damage around town. I estimate the winds gusted to about 65 or 70 mph at my house last night. A rain gauge in my neighborhood recorded about 9 inches of rain, but luckily no flooding in the area except for a couple streets in Houston and the surge along the coast. Safe to say this could have been much, much worse for the Houston metro but I'm worried about the rain it will dump on Louisiana, especially Lake Charles.You know, in the grand scheme of things Nicholas really wasn't all that bad considering how bad it could've been if a variable shifted. Neither Houston nor Louisiana flooded, it didn't spend enough time over open water to really get strong, and the extent of the damage is mostly in Brazoria and Matagorda counties. That being said, some of my friends still don't have power and the wind damage near the coast was pretty bad for a low-level hurricane.
I'm glad LA finally caught a break. They sure deserve it with the summer they've had.The northern eyewall of Nicholas went directly over my town at about 1am this morning. I woke up around that time and wondered why it was so quiet. All is fine here, but several friends have downed trees and there is minor wind damage around town. I estimate the winds gusted to about 65 or 70 mph at my house last night. A rain gauge in my neighborhood recorded about 9 inches of rain, but luckily no flooding in the area except for a couple streets in Houston and the surge along the coast. Safe to say this could have been much, much worse for the Houston metro but I'm worried about the rain it will dump on Louisiana, especially Lake Charles.You know, in the grand scheme of things Nicholas really wasn't all that bad considering how bad it could've been if a variable shifted. Neither Houston nor Louisiana flooded, it didn't spend enough time over open water to really get strong, and the extent of the damage is mostly in Brazoria and Matagorda counties. That being said, some of my friends still don't have power and the wind damage near the coast was pretty bad for a low-level hurricane.
Do note that that is a live graphic, so it is now showing Odette and two Invest storms which could become Peter and Rose.Thanks for the hatnote, Scott! :clap:
...which could become Peter and Rose.
That's a weird way to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
1. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased near the center of a
hurricane-force non-tropical low pressure system located a little
over 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. While a large area of
shower activity associated with a frontal boundary persists to the
northeast of the low's center, the system has not yet acquired
sufficient characteristics to be classified as a subtropical
cyclone. However, some additional development is still possible
during the next day or two while upper-level winds become a little
more favorable, and a subtropical storm could form during this time.
Thereafter, the system is forecast to move over colder water and be
absorbed by a larger non-tropical low. Additional information on
this system, including hurricane force wind warnings, can be found
in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Unless it doesn't...50% chance means it's equally likely to not happen.Lets hope to pray that we don't use Adria. :-D
Unless it doesn't...50% chance means it's equally likely to not happen.Lets hope to pray that we don't use Adria. :-D
They managed to squeeze in a pre-season tropical storm in the eastern Pacific, I see.
Atlantic will have to wait another day or two it looks like.
They managed to squeeze in a pre-season tropical storm in the eastern Pacific, I see.
Atlantic will have to wait another day or two it looks like.
They managed to squeeze in a pre-season tropical storm in the eastern Pacific, I see.
Atlantic will have to wait another day or two it looks like.
The PTC today near the Yucatan is what's left of Agatha from the Pacific basin, one of those storms that'll traverse both basins.
They managed to squeeze in a pre-season tropical storm in the eastern Pacific, I see.
Atlantic will have to wait another day or two it looks like.
The PTC today near the Yucatan is what's left of Agatha from the Pacific basin, one of those storms that'll traverse both basins.
Is it technically a basin crosser though? I thought Agatha got torn apart by Mexico mountains and absorbed into this low that's now about to develop.
Meanwhile, an Invest that was considered to be a low probability to develop into a tropical cyclone all of a sudden became Colin over a 'brown ocean.'
Ever since Colin dissipated back in early July, the Atlantic basin has been eerily quiet for almost two months, which was not expected, especially considering how active this hurricane season was projected to be. What's really strange is that a La Niña year such as this year without an August storm has never been recorded in history. I wonder what's up with that.
Hurricane Danielle, first hurricane this year in the Atlantic, but not the first hurricane with an Atlantic name this year. Strange, but has happened.Under the previous naming conventions, Bonnie would have been Bonnie-Darby.
Under the previous naming conventions, Bonnie would have been Bonnie-Darby.
And what relates that to a tropical storm? The thread for current weather where one is is another.This is just what Roadgeekteen does.Under the previous naming conventions, Bonnie would have been Bonnie-Darby.
Yep, and Otto in 2016 would have been Otto-Virgil.
Fiona really turned on the waterworks in the Greater Antilles. With Maria, it was the wind, but for Fiona, it's the rain causing such problems for Puerto Rico. Damn these slow moving tropical systems!
Now Fiona is expected to strengthen to a Cat 4 as it slowly makes it's way toward Bermuda, hopefully staying west of it.
Possibility at this point of Fiona remaining hurricane strength all the way to Nova Scotia.
As cool as Fiona looks on satellite, I am now much more interested in what is currently Invest 98L, east of the Windward Islands. All models develop this into what will likely be Tropical Storm Hermine, and most track it towards the northwest Caribbean, where a highly favorable environment will likely be waiting for it. Far too early for any real forecasts, but suffice it to say that all of Florida and the Gulf Coast should probably be paying attention.
My son's name is Ian so we are having a lot of fun with headlines like, "Ian forces NASA to cancel launch" and "Florida preparing for Ian's arrival"You may consider another trip to Florida...
Storm surge forecasts for Pinellas and areas along Tampa Bay are looking pretty dire. Ideal scenario for high surge shaping up with the center straddling or passing just west of the coast plus a slowdown of forward movement on the hurricane.
I'm expecting wide spread power outages throughout the area, so it's going to somewhat bad for just about everyone.
1100 update now has the landfall much closer to Ft. Myers than Tampa. The good news is that spares a denser area of population from the worst of the storm. The bad news is Ian is likely to landfall as a Cat 4 so that area north of Ft. Myers is going to get shredded. Ian is on track to slam the same area around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda that got railed by Charley in 2004.
My son's name is Ian so we are having a lot of fun with headlines like, "Ian forces NASA to cancel launch" and "Florida preparing for Ian's arrival"
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52390677665_8969010263_c.jpg)https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52390677665_8969010263_c.jpg
I just want to point out that Puerto Rico has almost the population of Connecticut, and it got hit hard by the hurricane. What made it worse is that they hadn't recovered fully from Maria in 2017; the company that tried to restore the grid did a poor job. This is being entirely ignored by most Americans.
I just want to point out that Puerto Rico has almost the population of Connecticut, and it got hit hard by the hurricane. What made it worse is that they hadn't recovered fully from Maria in 2017; the company that tried to restore the grid did a poor job. This is being entirely ignored by most Americans.
I empathize with anyone who has to deal with a corrupt government who does not have its population's basic needs and interests in mind.
Making landfall right now between Fort Myers and Punta Gorda.
Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.
Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.
3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.
Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.
There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.
Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.
3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.
Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.
There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.
Wow. It'll be interesting to see if we'll add Hurricane Ian to that list if it makes the 2mph leap to Category 5 as it makes landfall now.
Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.
3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.
Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.
There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.
Wow. It'll be interesting to see if we'll add Hurricane Ian to that list if it makes the 2mph leap to Category 5 as it makes landfall now.
Officially 150 mph at landfall.
Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.
3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.
Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.
There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.
Wow. It'll be interesting to see if we'll add Hurricane Ian to that list if it makes the 2mph leap to Category 5 as it makes landfall now.
Officially 150 mph at landfall.
Is it expected to continue downwards?
I just want to point out that Puerto Rico has almost the population of Connecticut, and it got hit hard by the hurricane. What made it worse is that they hadn't recovered fully from Maria in 2017; the company that tried to restore the grid did a poor job. This is being entirely ignored by most Americans.
What are the odds that company is in bed with the Puerto Rican government?
I empathize with anyone who has to deal with a corrupt government who does not have its population's basic needs and interests in mind.
The key question will be how quickly it moves across Florida and reaches the Atlantic. It'll certainly lose strength and it won't be close to Category 5 when it reaches the Atlantic. But if it moves quickly, it could be strong enough that when it moves north and makes landfall again around Savannah or Charleston that it could still be quite a strong storm. Won't likely be anything like Hugo, for example, because it's unlikely to have time to regain that strength over the Atlantic, but if it moves across Florida quickly it could weaken less than it might if it were to stall.
The key question will be how quickly it moves across Florida and reaches the Atlantic. It'll certainly lose strength and it won't be close to Category 5 when it reaches the Atlantic. But if it moves quickly, it could be strong enough that when it moves north and makes landfall again around Savannah or Charleston that it could still be quite a strong storm. Won't likely be anything like Hugo, for example, because it's unlikely to have time to regain that strength over the Atlantic, but if it moves across Florida quickly it could weaken less than it might if it were to stall.
Reintensification on the Atlantic Ocean will depend on how warm is the ocean surface temperature and are there any outside influence (like cold fronts). While the Atlantic Ocean will help redevelop Ian the waters aren't nearly as warm as the tropical waters of the Gulf of Mexico. So it is possible that Ian could maintain hurricane status even after crossing Florida it probably won't reach Category Four when it makes it second landfall on the Carolina coast.
https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833
Anybody who didn't evacuate is pretty much deserving whatever happens.
Given that Sanibel Island is affluent, probably.https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833
Anybody who didn't evacuate is pretty much deserving whatever happens.
You don't need to repair the bridge completely; you just need a small amount of material sloping upward to allow for a ramp jump.
....
...which makes me wonder about any pubicly available evacuation shelters.
https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833
But then, I am also not persuaded by the argument that weather forecasters often get the track incorrect, thus incentivizing people to stay put, including those who say they can't afford evacuation year after year...
^^^^
That's a very interesting comment. I've been over that causeway as a passenger when we went to the Shell Museum but I never paid quite that much attention; I was more interested in looking around. The jersey wall type barrier on the right side of the picture is probably the key to determining where it is, as Street View shows that where the other transitions to bridge occur (there are three bridge spans on that causeway) they don't have that same sort of barrier. Nice job. So yes, there could almost certainly be additional damage further along. On the plus side, it theoretically means this particular breach might be easier to repair.
Meteorologist Bryan Bennett first showed the collapsed section on Twitter, revealing a missing portion of the causeway dozens of feet long. Storm reporters with the Tampa Bay Times also confirmed the damage, saying the missing section comes right before the bridge rises up toward the island.
Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed the Sanibel Causeway is "not passable" during a Thursday press briefing. He said both the causeway and the nearby Pine Island Bridge will both require a "structural rebuild."
However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.
And then, if you can't afford to live in a place that experiences frequent hurricanes requiring evacuation, it makes me wonder how feasible it is to move somewhere else.
But then, I am also not persuaded by the argument that weather forecasters often get the track incorrect, thus incentivizing people to stay put, including those who say they can't afford evacuation year after year...
...which makes me wonder about any pubicly available evacuation shelters.
^^^^
That's a very interesting comment. I've been over that causeway as a passenger when we went to the Shell Museum but I never paid quite that much attention; I was more interested in looking around. The jersey wall type barrier on the right side of the picture is probably the key to determining where it is, as Street View shows that where the other transitions to bridge occur (there are three bridge spans on that causeway) they don't have that same sort of barrier. Nice job. So yes, there could almost certainly be additional damage further along. On the plus side, it theoretically means this particular breach might be easier to repair.
This article (https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-ian-sweeps-away-section-sanibel-causeway-cutting-off-all-vehicle-access) has some additional information.QuoteMeteorologist Bryan Bennett first showed the collapsed section on Twitter, revealing a missing portion of the causeway dozens of feet long. Storm reporters with the Tampa Bay Times also confirmed the damage, saying the missing section comes right before the bridge rises up toward the island.
Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed the Sanibel Causeway is "not passable" during a Thursday press briefing. He said both the causeway and the nearby Pine Island Bridge will both require a "structural rebuild."
From what I can tell from Streetview (https://www.google.com/maps/@26.4842671,-82.0099756,3a,75y,264.69h,89.66t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1so-vF1m2y1Jg7JbmAIIQztQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192), it appears to be this section on the Fort Myers side of the causeway where the jersey barriers transition to the bridge rail. I don't see jersey barriers on the islands or the Sanibel (https://www.google.com/maps/@26.4527884,-82.0368397,3a,75y,15.23h,75.26t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sfFuKLMBsH7NVfcjRx1HKGA!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DfFuKLMBsH7NVfcjRx1HKGA%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D133.82259%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192)side.
However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.
OK, the Lee County Sheriff's Office has a video taken by helicopter. The causeway breach shown in prior posts in this thread is exactly where you guys said–nice job figuring it out–but in this video you can also see far more severe damage halfway across.
https://twitter.com/SheriffLeeFL/status/1575529164899340289
You'd be surprised. Florida real estate is the strangest I've ever encountered. Lords living next to the serfs (i.e., mansions built next to trailer parks...).
However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.
Given the insane price of coastal real estate in Florida, I can't imagine that there are many people who live in evacuation zones that can't afford to either evacuate when needed, or sell their property and move elsewhere.
You'd be surprised. Florida real estate is the strangest I've ever encountered. Lords living next to the serfs (i.e., mansions built next to trailer parks...).
However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.
Given the insane price of coastal real estate in Florida, I can't imagine that there are many people who live in evacuation zones that can't afford to either evacuate when needed, or sell their property and move elsewhere.
You'd be surprised. Florida real estate is the strangest I've ever encountered. Lords living next to the serfs (i.e., mansions built next to trailer parks...).
However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.
Given the insane price of coastal real estate in Florida, I can't imagine that there are many people who live in evacuation zones that can't afford to either evacuate when needed, or sell their property and move elsewhere.
That's not too surprising. Sometimes it's just the houses right on the waterfront as expensive, and then you could have trailers across the street. There's some pockets of that near Lake Michigan, but not as extreme as my example.
It seems 21 Waffle Houses have closed along Florida's Gulf Coast. That tells you it's serious!
There are always people at the bottom of payscale doing least favorable jobs, even in paradise locations. Someone has to clean restrooms, wash dishes, keep up grounds after the storm, pick up trash... And those jobs don't necessarily come with the paycheck in excess of the bare minimum - even if that minimum is numerically higher than the same job would get in a less premium location.
I was just talking to someone at the gym who said that a friend of his moved his boat from here down to Ft. Myers, and they still have no idea of where it is. So many boats down there washed onto land or taken to who know's where?
In Tallahassee, all we got was a couple days of awesome sunsets thanks to Ian's expansive cirrus outflow.
Previous forecasts had called for maybe an inch or so of rain, which would have been nice since we haven't had measurable rain here since the 11th of September (and not a trace since the 16th). Unfortunately for us, Ian's track kept moving farther and farther east... we didn't get a single drop.
I have to admit than when I see Tropical Storm Nalgae's name the first thing that immediately comes to my head is an ass, as it resembles nalgas which is Spanish for "buttocks". I think the name should be retired for that reason.
I have to admit than when I see Tropical Storm Nalgae's name the first thing that immediately comes to my head is an ass, as it resembles nalgas which is Spanish for "buttocks". I think the name should be retired for that reason.
It's an interesting dichotomy to have, in the same country, a landfalling hurricane at the same time as there's a blizzard.Nicole? More like Superstorm Sandy-lite if I do say so myself.
At least Nicole is a relatively minor storm. It'll only cost a couple billion dollars rather than 90 billion or whatever the estimate is for Ian.
Okay, hurricane season has started, and for some very odd reason they will start counting from 2 in the Atlantic. I don't remember any pre-season storms.
Okay, hurricane season has started, and for some very odd reason they will start counting from 2 in the Atlantic. I don't remember any pre-season storms.
There was a subtropical storm in the middle of January.
Okay, hurricane season has started, and for some very odd reason they will start counting from 2 in the Atlantic. I don't remember any pre-season storms.
There was a subtropical storm in the middle of January.
I detected a hint of sarcasm on CNGL's part (he doesn't consider subtropical cyclones to be worthy of being named)
This is interesting. Hurricane Hillary is projected to bring a buttload of tropical moisture to SoCal after making landfall in Baja this weekend:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP092023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/113608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Significant rain in the desert like this means we're looking at substantial flash flooding. Good chance we're looking at another billion dollar disaster to start next week.
This is interesting. Hurricane Hillary is projected to bring a buttload of tropical moisture to SoCal after making landfall in Baja this weekend:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP092023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/113608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Significant rain in the desert like this means we're looking at substantial flash flooding. Good chance we're looking at another billion dollar disaster to start next week.
Hilary will still be a fully tropical system by that point, and the tropical storm watches in effect for parts of southern California are the first ones ever to be issued for that region.
This is interesting. Hurricane Hillary is projected to bring a buttload of tropical moisture to SoCal after making landfall in Baja this weekend:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP092023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/113608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Significant rain in the desert like this means we're looking at substantial flash flooding. Good chance we're looking at another billion dollar disaster to start next week.
Hilary will still be a fully tropical system by that point, and the tropical storm watches in effect for parts of southern California are the first ones ever to be issued for that region.
I never thought I would see the day a tropical storm would impact Southern California.
Definitely an extremely rare, once-in-a-generation event.
Definitely an extremely rare, once-in-a-generation event.
It's much rarer than that, although I suspect it won't be going forward.
Definitely an extremely rare, once-in-a-generation event.
It's much rarer than that, although I suspect it won't be going forward.
Much rarer than once-in-a-generation.
If it moves further west than forecast and makes landfall in California, it would be the first tropical storm landfall there since 1939 (the last tropical cyclone of any kind to make landfall in California was the remnants of Hurricane Hyacinth in 1972). The 1939 storm is also the last (and only known) system of tropical origin to move into California at tropical storm strength, whether tropical or post-tropical.
Definitely an extremely rare, once-in-a-generation event.
It's much rarer than that, although I suspect it won't be going forward.
Much rarer than once-in-a-generation.
If it moves further west than forecast and makes landfall in California, it would be the first tropical storm landfall there since 1939 (the last tropical cyclone of any kind to make landfall in California was the remnants of Hurricane Hyacinth in 1972). The 1939 storm is also the last (and only known) system of tropical origin to move into California at tropical storm strength, whether tropical or post-tropical.
Nora 1997 produced tropical storm winds in California while still tropical, although its center stayed to the east in Arizona. Kathleen in 1976 also produced tropical storm winds over California and Arizona, though it may not have been fully tropical by the time its center made it to the states. And In 1858, a hurricane stayed offshore but produced hurricane force winds in San Diego. These types of events are extremely rare but not quite unheard of.
At any rate, the wind isn’t going to be the biggest story here. The west is relatively used to strong winds, and while there will almost certainly be damage it will be less than what a similar wind magnitude would do in the east. The real story here is the tremendous amount of rainfall forecasted for the desert regions of California and Nevada. These areas in many cases are too far west for even much regular summer monsoon influence, and some of these forecast rainfall amounts are more than what normally falls in an entire year.
Any chance the storm might track further east and funnel some of that rain into the Colorado basin?
Any chance the storm might track further east and funnel some of that rain into the Colorado basin?
Southern Nevada should get plenty and that generally funnels down into Lake Mead, but much east of there, I don't think so. Generously using Page, AZ as a proxy for "the Colorado basin", forecast rain amounts there for the next few days are trivial.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/national-international/hilary-becomes-a-tropical-storm-moving-very-near-to-mexicos-baja-coast-packing-deadly-rainfall/3209470/
https://abc7.com/earthquake-ojai-usgs-ventura-county/13676973/
Apparently a 5.0 quake hit Ventura County while Tropical Storm Hilary takes place.
Are most of those highways closed as precaution, or due to actual damage? I noticed Google Maps is showing most will be open again later today, but I don't know how they determine that.
Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.
Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.
Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. :-D
Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.
Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. :-D
Yeah it’s always the “I” storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.
Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.
Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. :-D
Yeah it’s always the “I” storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.
There's plenty left off the top of my brain: Ichabod, Isaac, Izzy, Idris, Ilan, Ilian, Iman, Irwin...
Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.
Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. :-D
Yeah it’s always the “I” storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.
There's plenty left off the top of my brain: Ichabod, Isaac, Izzy, Idris, Ilan, Ilian, Iman, Irwin...
Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.
Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. :-D
Yeah it’s always the “I” storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.
There's plenty left off the top of my brain: Ichabod, Isaac, Izzy, Idris, Ilan, Ilian, Iman, Irwin...
There's less than you think. Isaac is a current Atlantic name (though it should have been retired in 2012 IMO). Idris is the replacement name for Ian. Irwin is currently in use in the Eastern Pacific and in fact is the next name this year in that basin.
There's a decent number of female I names to go around, but male I names are starting to get stretched a bit thin.
Any chance the storm might track further east and funnel some of that rain into the Colorado basin?
Southern Nevada should get plenty and that generally funnels down into Lake Mead, but much east of there, I don't think so. Generously using Page, AZ as a proxy for "the Colorado basin", forecast rain amounts there for the next few days are trivial.
The Colorado watershed doesn't extend much further west than the Las Vegas Valley, so if the heaviest rain bands go over Death Valley and end up in Nye County, that runoff will unfortunately not make it to Lake Mead.
NWS Las Vegas has flood watches out for the Las Vegas Valley as well as southern Nye County, so it seems like there is still some uncertainty here (or the storm may impact both basins).
And for reference, in 2020, 21 and 22 Lake Mead water level dropped by 8, 17 and 22 feet over the respective year, 1/1 to 12/31.Any chance the storm might track further east and funnel some of that rain into the Colorado basin?
Southern Nevada should get plenty and that generally funnels down into Lake Mead, but much east of there, I don't think so. Generously using Page, AZ as a proxy for "the Colorado basin", forecast rain amounts there for the next few days are trivial.
The Colorado watershed doesn't extend much further west than the Las Vegas Valley, so if the heaviest rain bands go over Death Valley and end up in Nye County, that runoff will unfortunately not make it to Lake Mead.
NWS Las Vegas has flood watches out for the Las Vegas Valley as well as southern Nye County, so it seems like there is still some uncertainty here (or the storm may impact both basins).
Checking Lake Mead at the Bureau of Reclamation site (https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/hourly7.html), water level went from an average 1063.32 feet ASL on Friday to 1063.99 feet ASL at the most recent hourly reading, so Scott's statement was accurate as Hilary brought the lake level up by only about 8 inches.
That's nice, but minor in comparison to the effect of this year's snowmelt. The full 2023 data set (https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/HOVR_FB_CurrentYear_Daily.html) shows that the level has increased by about 19 feet since January 1, and 18 feet of that since early April.
Tropical Storm Idalia is rapidly organizing in the NW Caribbean. I suspect this will be a major hurricane before landfall in Florida. Just speculated six days ago "what if another I storm is a monster?" That looks very well like it may happen.
Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings
the hurricane above the category 5 threshold.
As of now the models say it will reach 155 mph peak winds, which is 2 mph short of Category 5 (157 mph winds).
Looks like no impacts from Lee to the east coast aside from big waves...for now...
A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify [...] The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015."
Otis intensified an insane 60 kt (70 mph) in just 12 hours from 12 to 00 UTC (8am to 8pm EDT). That is the second fastest rate of intensification ever seen in the Eastern Pacific, behind only Hurricane Patricia from 2015. And we know how that turned out (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Patricia).
What's worse is that all of our computer models absolutely whiffed on this one. Barely any of them showed any strengthening at all today, much less to the category 5 monster it is now. This is truly an absolute worst case scenario as it appears to be headed straight for Acapulco, which has a metropolitan area of over 1 million. Because the models performed so poorly, they've had barely any time to prepare for anything stronger than a minimal hurricane. They also have essentially zero history with strong hurricanes in this part of Mexico, so there is no local knowledge of what to expect and nothing is going to be built for anything close to this.
This is fascinating from a meteorological standpoint in terms of the rapid strengthening and how poorly the models did, but this has the potential to be one of the worst natural disasters in recent years. Hopefully they are spared the worst of it.