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Author Topic: NFL (2021 Season)  (Read 101165 times)

snowc

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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2000 on: January 14, 2022, 12:51:47 PM »

Quite shocked at my Texans actually.  David Culley overachieved this year winning four games when everyone had expected a winless year.  Why would you fire a coach who exceeded all expectations?  I was expecting him to be in the Coach of the Year conversation in light of winning four games with the worst roster in NFL history.  I thought he was a keeper; players seemed to love playing for him and it showed all season, and I thought he brought the best out of the players.  Our team did better than the Jaguars and Lions, and matched the Jets and Giants win totals with the least amount of talent of any team.

Maybe a lot of grumbling fans excepted a winless year, or tongue-in-cheek columnists.  I would seriously doubt even those that didn't except the team to do well would have a winless year.  What the Browns did a few years ago is absolutely tough to do.

While a coach of the year doesn't necessarily have to be a coach that guided its team to the playoffs, a coach with 4 wins winning coach of the year?  That would be the laughingstock of the NFL.

That all said, I don't think it's fair to fire a coach after one year.  Unless there were some unknown/unreported issues in the front office, gotta give a coach some time to build a team to their liking.  In cities whose news reporters tend to dig deep, those issues either get reported, or become known after the fact.  I'm not sure how deep Houston's news reporters will dig here to understand what happened.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2001 on: January 14, 2022, 05:09:46 PM »

If anyone needed to fired, it was the OC Kelly (who was actually just fired yesterday), not Culley. His offensive playcalls were usually predictable and didn't play to the Texans' strengths (i.e, run the ball up the middle on first and second down even though the O-line wasn't very good). I would personally like to see the Texans promote Lovie Smith or Pep Hamilton to the head coaching job.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2002 on: January 14, 2022, 05:37:14 PM »

Judge finally fired, only 372 days too late.

Now we wait for the next legendary coach that will call to qb sneaks in Judge fashion.

Not that that was the reason he was fired, but I can see that as a final straw for many people that were originally willing to give him one more season
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2003 on: January 14, 2022, 06:15:16 PM »

Some interesting narratives going on in the run-up to Wild Card weekend.

A lot of people think the Packers are clear favorites in the NFC. I listen to a lot of Wisconsin sports radio, but it's not just that. Many national media figures, and of course a lot of fans, would probably take the Packers against the NFC field right now if given the choice.

It blows my mind that people are counting out Brady. Seriously, the Bucs are like an afterthought to most right now. Maybe it's blissful ignorance ("I know deep down that they're going to the Super Bowl again, but I don't want them to, so I won't talk about it'). It seems to me like everyone saw the ugly loss to the Saints, the Godwin injury, and the AB chaos, and just wrote off the Bucs.

Brady has shown time and time again throughout his career that he can lead an efficient offense with just about any receivers who are remotely capable and know the ins and outs of the offense. Brady's worst season in recent memory, and maybe ever, was 2019. In 2019, he threw for 4000 yards with a 3:1 TD/INT ratio with the corpse of Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Philip Dorsett, and Mohamed Sanu as his top receivers, with basically no tight ends and a significantly weaker running back room than he has now. (FWIW, I have a conspiracy theory that Brady was dealing with a significant injury the second half of that season, but he kept it under wraps like he did his 2020 knee injury.) And I know that it defies biology, but if you compare Brady's throws from 2019 to today, he legitimately is a better QB today than he was two years ago, no matter how impossible that seems. Moral of the story is, Brady will find new targets, and it's not like Tampa is totally deficient right now anyways. Cyril Grayson had one single NFL reception prior to Godwin's injury. In the next two weeks after it, he caught 9 passes for 162 yards and the game-winning touchdown against the Jets. Tyler Johnson has caught 13 passes in his three games since Godwin went down.

Oh, and the Buccaneers beat the Packers at Lambeau last year. Brady threw three interceptions in that game, and they still won. Rest assured, Brady is not going to throw three interceptions in a playoff game again.

So, it already annoys me when people say that the Packers are NFC favorites. What annoys me even more is when people say that the Niners are their biggest threat. Oh, boy. The entirety of the argument for that is that the Niners are peaking at the right time. Which, of course, they are. But somehow that "getting hot" logic is not applied to the Bucs. The Niners are 6-2 in their last eight; the Bucs are 7-1.

Every year a team is dubbed "the team no one wants to play in the postseason". This year, it was the Colts. (!) Until it was the 49ers. That title is earned by playing badly early on, and then stringing together wins down the stretch. For some reason, teams that run the ball well but can't throw it well consistently enough get bonus points. Don't ask, those are the rules I guess. So let's go back through a few years, and look at the teams who everyone was dreading to face:

2020: Ravens (11-5), lost divisional
2019: Titans (9-7), lost AFC Championship
2018 there were quite a few: Cowboys (10-6), lost divisional; Colts (10-6), lost divisional; Ravens (10-6), lost wild card
2017: Chiefs (10-6), lost wild card

One of those six made the conference title game. Those six had an average record of 10-6, and the Niners are 10-7. Five of the six were built the same way: run-heavy, can occasionally win games by throwing, but not often enough (the 2018 Colts being the exception). I'd say that's an accurate description of the Niners this year.

Contrast the 10-6 average of those teams to the average record of the last 8 Super Bowl teams, which is 12.5-3.5. The last 16 conference finalists are 12.25-3.75.

Conclusion: I'll bet my house on the Niners not making it past the divisional. I wouldn't be shocked if they beat the Cowboys though.

There is rain in the forecast for Sunday in Tampa. No, that does not mean that Brady is going to turn into Nathan Peterman. So long as it's not a downpour, rain has very little effect on throwing and catching a football. There might be one or two drops/missed throws. The game won't be close enough for those to matter.

Great defensive fronts (Tampa) against young QBs who aren't great from the pocket (Hurts) and run heavy-teams (Eagles) is a recipe for defensive domination.

The Cowboys offense has not been falling off. They've hit 50 points in two of their last three games. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know who they were playing against; remind me how many other teams have scored 50 points twice in a three game stretch in NFL history. I recall the 2014 Packers scored 50+ in back-to-back games, that might be the entire list.

Finally, the big reason why a lot of people are picking the Cardinals to beat the Rams is because the Rams have declined lately on offense. And, uh, the Cardinals . . .  apparently have not?

So there's my rant about the NFC. Don't really have any hot takes about the AFC.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2004 on: January 14, 2022, 06:33:32 PM »

The Packers have probably lost more home playoff games in the last 20 years than any other team. They've lost to dome teams (Falcons, Vikings) and warm weather teams (Bucs, 49ers, while I wouldn't call the Niners warm weather they fit here better than elsewhere) Some of those Packers teams weren't great (2004. 2013) but the fact that every national pundit can't talk about the playoff seeds without emphasizing how much better Green Bay's HFA is when it's hardly been a death sentence for visiting teams.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 06:36:39 PM by TheHighwayMan394 »
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2005 on: January 14, 2022, 11:36:29 PM »

Some interesting narratives going on in the run-up to Wild Card weekend.

A lot of people think the Packers are clear favorites in the NFC. ...

It blows my mind that people are counting out Brady. Seriously, the Bucs are like an afterthought to most right now. Maybe it's blissful ignorance ("I know deep down that they're going to the Super Bowl again, but I don't want them to, so I won't talk about it'). It seems to me like everyone saw the ugly loss to the Saints, the Godwin injury, and the AB chaos, and just wrote off the Bucs. ...

Oh, and the Buccaneers beat the Packers at Lambeau last year. Brady threw three interceptions in that game, and they still won. Rest assured, Brady is not going to throw three interceptions in a playoff game again.

So, it already annoys me when people say that the Packers are NFC favorites. What annoys me even more is when people say that the Niners are their biggest threat. Oh, boy. The entirety of the argument for that is that the Niners are peaking at the right time. Which, of course, they are. But somehow that "getting hot" logic is not applied to the Bucs. The Niners are 6-2 in their last eight; the Bucs are 7-1.

A couple things on this...

First, the Bucs needed some Brady magic to beat the Jets and were in a close game with the Panthers for three quarters. They're still a clear favorite to knock off the Packers IMO, but at no point in the last month plus have they looked dominant. I think they're as vulnerable as they've ever been since Brady arrived given the injuries etc.

Second, because of the seeding, the Bucs and Packers can't meet until the championship. But the Packers have to win a divisional game first, and I do think the 49ers are the most likely team to knock them off there, if they beat the Cowboys (obviously a huge qualifier). Unless the Eagles win, it will be an NFC West team going to Lambeau, and I like the 49ers' chances there more than the Rams or Cardinals given their unique style of play and run-heavy, clock control offense. We've seen that match up poorly with the Packers in the past, as recently as Christmas Day when they nearly lost to the Browns.

And finally, recency bias favors the 49ers because their Week 18 win was probably the most impressive win by any team all season. Down 17 points. Win probability as low as 0.4%. QB playing with an injured finger. Opponent playing for the division title. And in a must-win game, they became the first team ever to beat Sean McVay when trailing at halftime. I don't want to overreact, but there literally couldn't be a gutsier, more stirring way to enter the playoffs.


My hottest 49ers take is that Kyle Shanahan wouldn't mind losing in the first round or two of the playoffs. If they go on another championship or Super Bowl run with Jimmy G, the massive haul they gave up for Trey Lance starts to look kind of strange.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2022, 12:12:46 AM by webny99 »
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2006 on: January 15, 2022, 12:07:01 AM »

The Packers have probably lost more home playoff games in the last 20 years than any other team. They've lost to dome teams (Falcons, Vikings) and warm weather teams (Bucs, 49ers, while I wouldn't call the Niners warm weather they fit here better than elsewhere)

From a quick search, it appears that the Packers are tied with the Steelers with 6 home playoff losses since 2001. Chiefs have 5, Bengals and Ravens have 4.


Some of those Packers teams weren't great (2004. 2013) but the fact that every national pundit can't talk about the playoff seeds without emphasizing how much better Green Bay's HFA is when it's hardly been a death sentence for visiting teams.

I don't know, that's been true in years past, but in the Matt LaFleur era I feel like the Lambeau effect has gotten stronger even as home field advantages elsewhere have diminished. The Packers have only lost 3 home games total under Matt LaFleur, counting last year's NFC Championship. To go 24-3 at home in a three-year stretch is almost unbelievable.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2007 on: January 15, 2022, 01:43:13 AM »

The Packers have probably lost more home playoff games in the last 20 years than any other team. They've lost to dome teams (Falcons, Vikings) and warm weather teams (Bucs, 49ers, while I wouldn't call the Niners warm weather they fit here better than elsewhere) Some of those Packers teams weren't great (2004. 2013) but the fact that every national pundit can't talk about the playoff seeds without emphasizing how much better Green Bay's HFA is when it's hardly been a death sentence for visiting teams.
The Packers have lost a lot of playoff games in general recently, they have famous collapses and losses on the road.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2008 on: January 15, 2022, 03:54:51 AM »

While a coach of the year doesn't necessarily have to be a coach that guided its team to the playoffs, a coach with 4 wins winning coach of the year?  That would be the laughingstock of the NFL.

You have a good point, but while four wins doesn't sound like much on paper, my team matched last year's win total with a crumbled-down roster.  Basically I'm saying the Davis Mills/Tyrod Taylor pair won the same number of games this year as Deshaun Watson did last year.  If you look at our team's roster this year compared to last year, you can see why every prediction I heard all preseason was expected to be a winless year.  And yes I was constantly told by so many people this is the worst assembled offense in NFL history.

And not saying David Culley will win the Coach of the Year, but in my opinion (for what it's worth) his name should at least be mentioned in the consideration for it.  When a team overachieves (or underachieves), that typically due to the coaching.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2009 on: January 15, 2022, 05:05:31 AM »

While a coach of the year doesn't necessarily have to be a coach that guided its team to the playoffs, a coach with 4 wins winning coach of the year?  That would be the laughingstock of the NFL.

You have a good point, but while four wins doesn't sound like much on paper, my team matched last year's win total with a crumbled-down roster.  Basically I'm saying the Davis Mills/Tyrod Taylor pair won the same number of games this year as Deshaun Watson did last year.  If you look at our team's roster this year compared to last year, you can see why every prediction I heard all preseason was expected to be a winless year.  And yes I was constantly told by so many people this is the worst assembled offense in NFL history.

And not saying David Culley will win the Coach of the Year, but in my opinion (for what it's worth) his name should at least be mentioned in the consideration for it.  When a team overachieves (or underachieves), that typically due to the coaching.
Uh he got fired
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2010 on: January 15, 2022, 08:25:54 AM »

Some interesting narratives going on in the run-up to Wild Card weekend.

A lot of people think the Packers are clear favorites in the NFC. ...

It blows my mind that people are counting out Brady. Seriously, the Bucs are like an afterthought to most right now. Maybe it's blissful ignorance ("I know deep down that they're going to the Super Bowl again, but I don't want them to, so I won't talk about it'). It seems to me like everyone saw the ugly loss to the Saints, the Godwin injury, and the AB chaos, and just wrote off the Bucs. ...

Oh, and the Buccaneers beat the Packers at Lambeau last year. Brady threw three interceptions in that game, and they still won. Rest assured, Brady is not going to throw three interceptions in a playoff game again.

So, it already annoys me when people say that the Packers are NFC favorites. What annoys me even more is when people say that the Niners are their biggest threat. Oh, boy. The entirety of the argument for that is that the Niners are peaking at the right time. Which, of course, they are. But somehow that "getting hot" logic is not applied to the Bucs. The Niners are 6-2 in their last eight; the Bucs are 7-1.

A couple things on this...

First, the Bucs needed some Brady magic to beat the Jets and were in a close game with the Panthers for three quarters. They're still a clear favorite to knock off the Packers IMO, but at no point in the last month plus have they looked dominant. I think they're as vulnerable as they've ever been since Brady arrived given the injuries etc.

Second, because of the seeding, the Bucs and Packers can't meet until the championship. But the Packers have to win a divisional game first, and I do think the 49ers are the most likely team to knock them off there, if they beat the Cowboys (obviously a huge qualifier). Unless the Eagles win, it will be an NFC West team going to Lambeau, and I like the 49ers' chances there more than the Rams or Cardinals given their unique style of play and run-heavy, clock control offense. We've seen that match up poorly with the Packers in the past, as recently as Christmas Day when they nearly lost to the Browns.

And finally, recency bias favors the 49ers because their Week 18 win was probably the most impressive win by any team all season. Down 17 points. Win probability as low as 0.4%. QB playing with an injured finger. Opponent playing for the division title. And in a must-win game, they became the first team ever to beat Sean McVay when trailing at halftime. I don't want to overreact, but there literally couldn't be a gutsier, more stirring way to enter the playoffs.


My hottest 49ers take is that Kyle Shanahan wouldn't mind losing in the first round or two of the playoffs. If they go on another championship or Super Bowl run with Jimmy G, the massive haul they gave up for Trey Lance starts to look kind of strange.
The Niners stunk in the first half of the Rams game. The most impressive win this season is more like the Bengals over Ravens, Cowboys over Falcons, or Cowboys over Washington where it was domination all the way through.

The Bucs lost 38-3 to the Saints last year, and then lost two more in a row in late November, dropping their record to 7-5. They were three games behind the Saints in the division. I think they were a little more vulnerable then.

And we’ve all forgot that it’s Tom Brady.

Sorry but your take about Shanahan is pretty stupid. Football coaches want to win Super Bowls. End of story. Whatever publicity they get for “strange” decisions is just noise if they win it all.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2022, 08:28:14 AM by thspfc »
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Whether a team makes the playoffs isn't comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out. That's luck.

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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2011 on: January 15, 2022, 12:07:30 PM »

The Niners stunk in the first half of the Rams game. The most impressive win this season is more like the Bengals over Ravens, Cowboys over Falcons, or Cowboys over Washington where it was domination all the way through.

I guess we have different ideas of impressive. The three things I look for are high stakes, a comeback factor, and an underdog factor. In other words, finding a way to win when you very easily could have lost. The 49ers win over the Rams was a home run in all three categories.

To me, teams piling on when the outcome isn't in doubt doesn't really tell me anything. Since you mention two Cowboys games, sure, those were total laughers, but that was exactly what they should have been given the talent disparity. I think the most impressive Cowboys win of the season was Week 8 over the Vikings with Cooper Rush. That was the type of gutsy performance that will be remembered if they go on a playoff run.


Sorry but your take about Shanahan is pretty stupid. Football coaches want to win Super Bowls. End of story. Whatever publicity they get for “strange” decisions is just noise if they win it all.

Of course he wants to win Super Bowls. And he obviously convinced the GM and ownership that he needed a better quarterback to do it, which is why they gave up two first-rounders to get Trey Lance. But Lance hardly played this season, so it seems reasonable that Shanahan isn't necessarily all-in on winning a Super Bowl this season.  They're sort of like the anti-Rams... for the Rams, anything short of a Super Bowl is a disappointment, whereas the 49ers are kind of playing with house money as long as it's Jimmy G starting.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2022, 09:05:13 PM by webny99 »
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2012 on: January 15, 2022, 03:51:52 PM »

let's go Pats!
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2013 on: January 15, 2022, 08:11:59 PM »

Congrats to the Bengals for snapping their 31 year playoff drought.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2014 on: January 15, 2022, 10:06:13 PM »

Congrats to the Bengals for snapping their 31 year playoff drought.
Yes! It’s been awhile. #WhoDey
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2015 on: January 15, 2022, 10:12:23 PM »

let's go Pats!
Only place they’re going to tonight is the woodshed :ded:
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2016 on: January 15, 2022, 11:31:38 PM »

What was that defense
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2017 on: January 16, 2022, 11:04:03 AM »

Bellichick deserves some consideration for coach of the year because he won 10 games and made the playoffs with very mediocre talent.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2018 on: January 16, 2022, 12:38:38 PM »

Bellichick deserves some consideration for cheater of the millennium
the only award i'll consider

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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2019 on: January 16, 2022, 03:40:40 PM »

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-become-the-first-team-in-nfl-history-to-pitch-a-perfect-offensive-game-in-playoff-win-over-patriots/

Quote
In the Bills' 47-17 blowout victory over the New England Patriots, Buffalo never punted, kicked a field goal, nor turned the ball over -- the first team in league history to go an entire game with no kicks, punts, or turnovers.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2020 on: January 16, 2022, 05:17:25 PM »

Drizzling rain didn't turn Brady into Peterman. Absolute shocker in Tampa.
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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2021 on: January 16, 2022, 08:04:37 PM »

Cowboys penalties killed them today
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cabiness42

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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2022 on: January 16, 2022, 08:24:44 PM »

Cowboys penalties killed them today

They did, and this isn't an excuse for the Cowboys losing, but there were two times when the refs' unnecessary delay in getting the ball spotted cost them. Once was after the fake punt when they Cowboys wanted to run another pay quickly with the SF punt return team on the field, and the second was after the last play that prevented them from getting another play off.

Add this to the inadvertent whistle fiasco from last night and that's two playoff examples of what has been a really bad year for refs. Lots of high profile blown calls and major inconsistencies. The same hit by a defender is unnecessary roughness against Brady, Rodgers or Allen, but not unnecessary roughness against Mahomes, Prescott or Wilson.
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DenverBrian

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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2023 on: January 16, 2022, 08:52:26 PM »

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-become-the-first-team-in-nfl-history-to-pitch-a-perfect-offensive-game-in-playoff-win-over-patriots/

Quote
In the Bills' 47-17 blowout victory over the New England Patriots, Buffalo never punted, kicked a field goal, nor turned the ball over -- the first team in league history to go an entire game with no kicks, punts, or turnovers.
No field goals; not "no kicks." There were several PAT kicks, not all of them successful.
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1995hoo

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Re: NFL (2021 Season)
« Reply #2024 on: January 16, 2022, 08:58:53 PM »

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commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

 


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