The Importance of Reliable Freight Transportation

Started by kernals12, November 11, 2021, 10:59:27 PM

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kernals12

Let's imagine you go to the supermarket to get a 6 pack of beer. But this supermarket is very unusual. It has no shelves. Instead, the moment you walk in, a guy from the Bud light bottling plant also comes in with the 6 pack of beer you want. You grab it from him, pay for it, and you're on your way.

There are many problems with this:
The store can't know precisely when you're going to be going to the store or what you're going to buy
Having each delivery driver bring in just one item of merchandise would be very expensive
If the driver gets a flat tire, then you're out of luck

So instead, the store has less frequent deliveries of very large shipments that provide a buffer for changes in supply and demand. This causes its own problems:
This inventory is not making you any money, but you have to pay for rent, heating, cooling, and for protecting your merchandise from theft, damage, and spoilage.

But let's imagine that this supermarket got a teleportation device. You'd tell the clerk that you wanted a six pack of beer and they would beam one straight from the bottling plant. They'd get the advantages of having no inventory without the drawbacks.

That's an extreme scenario but it holds true in the real world. With faster and more reliable transportation, retailers can hold less inventory for a given number of sales, lowering their costs. As we're seeing with the fiasco at our nation's ports, when transportation is unreliable, it means shortages, because effectively stores now need to hold larger inventories as a buffer.

We probably won't ever get teleportation devices, but we can strengthen our supply chains by improving our transportation infrastructure, saving us the tremendous costs associated with holding inventory.


jeffandnicole

The current issue is dealing with employee shortages. The infrastructure itself is fine.

Max Rockatansky

Ask Brundle Fly how the Telepod concept worked out. 

Also, you do realize that most stores get beverages from a local distributor and it isn't shipped in bulk freight?  Usually our drink vendors show up 2-3 times a week to replenish stock on hand. 

kernals12

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 11, 2021, 11:33:05 PM
Ask Brundle Fly how the Telepod concept worked out. 

Also, you do realize that most stores get beverages from a local distributor and it isn't shipped in bulk freight?  Usually our drink vendors show up 2-3 times a week to replenish stock on hand.

Way to miss the point dude

kernals12

Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 11, 2021, 11:19:19 PM
The current issue is dealing with employee shortages. The infrastructure itself is fine.

Better infrastructure means better productivity which means fewer employees are needed.

Rothman

Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 08:25:49 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 11, 2021, 11:19:19 PM
The current issue is dealing with employee shortages. The infrastructure itself is fine.

Better infrastructure means better productivity which means fewer employees are needed.
Yes, because the truckloads per driver just get bigger naturally as infrastructure improves.

(or, to put it more bluntly:  What?)
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

Max Rockatansky

#6
Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 08:18:18 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 11, 2021, 11:33:05 PM
Ask Brundle Fly how the Telepod concept worked out. 

Also, you do realize that most stores get beverages from a local distributor and it isn't shipped in bulk freight?  Usually our drink vendors show up 2-3 times a week to replenish stock on hand.

Way to miss the point dude

Actually no I didn't miss the point.  I've managed retail security for as close to the length of your life (which includes supply chain problems and theft).  You are talking about teleportation devices and citing some sort of vague infrastructure issue which largely doesn't exist.  The issue you see at the Port of Long Beach has nothing to do with highway infrastructure and development.  There are plenty of long haul and short haul trucks that will take any freight off loaded from those container ships.  The trouble is the port is short staffed which has nothing to do with highways.  Truth be told, we aren't even expecting much of a product shortage from our distribution center in Orange County.  We are actually planning taking rain checks for any major product shortages as we have done in years past if there is a Black Friday weekend supply issue.  No need to reinvent the wheel here.   

It just hit me, you don't work for the Union Aerospace Corporation do you?  :-o

kernals12

Quote from: Rothman on November 12, 2021, 08:29:58 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 08:25:49 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 11, 2021, 11:19:19 PM
The current issue is dealing with employee shortages. The infrastructure itself is fine.

Better infrastructure means better productivity which means fewer employees are needed.
Yes, because the truckloads per driver just get bigger naturally as infrastructure improves.

(or, to put it more bluntly:  What?)
The truckloads don't get bigger, but each driver can make more deliveries in a given amount of time

djsekani

Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 08:25:49 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 11, 2021, 11:19:19 PM
The current issue is dealing with employee shortages. The infrastructure itself is fine.

Better infrastructure means better productivity which means fewer employees are needed.

Better infrastructure won't magically make more dockworkers and truck drivers appear. The backlogs in the supply chain are all occurring well before a loaded truck is on the highway. If anything, our current infrastructure is being underutilized because of the supply chain issues.

HighwayStar

A few thoughts.

First, I will agree that reliable freight (and passenger) transportation is desirable. Unfortunately the approach used to determine what is sufficient is generally ill conceived as no significant considerations are made for redundancy or resistance to disruption. Freight capacity is an important strategic consideration from a civil defense standpoint, and the system should be as resilient to disruption, attack, or failure as possible.

Second, the current crisis in shipping is really not about either infrastructure or labor issues, so much as trade issues. In short, we buy far too much from Asia, to the point where we can't get it off the boats fast enough, that is a sign of trouble. If those goods were being produced in the US we would not be seeing anything like this kind of problem.
There are those who travel, and those who travel well

Rothman

Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 09:39:04 AM
Quote from: Rothman on November 12, 2021, 08:29:58 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 08:25:49 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 11, 2021, 11:19:19 PM
The current issue is dealing with employee shortages. The infrastructure itself is fine.

Better infrastructure means better productivity which means fewer employees are needed.
Yes, because the truckloads per driver just get bigger naturally as infrastructure improves.

(or, to put it more bluntly:  What?)
The truckloads don't get bigger, but each driver can make more deliveries in a given amount of time
Because the distance between origin and destination becomes shorter... :D
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

SEWIGuy

Quote from: HighwayStar on November 12, 2021, 11:03:05 AM
Second, the current crisis in shipping is really not about either infrastructure or labor issues, so much as trade issues. In short, we buy far too much from Asia, to the point where we can't get it off the boats fast enough, that is a sign of trouble. If those goods were being produced in the US we would not be seeing anything like this kind of problem.


But we have been buying a lot of stuff from Asia for a long time now, and this was never a problem.

Building it here isn't a solution either.  It would make everything more expensive, and global free trade has been largely good for the United States.

vdeane

In this hypothetical world with teleporters, why would people still go to stores and the like?  Why wouldn't Amazon just give everyone with Prime a teleporter, and then one second shipping would eliminate the need to go anywhere?  Why have the middleman when all you need is the warehouse and the teleporter?  I'm imagining warehouse companies teleporting goods in from factories and then out to customers, with lots of jobs lost due to being obsolete.

Granted, there's still the experience of going to the store, browsing the selection, and finding what you want... but that's not what was depicted in the OP.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position of NYSDOT or its affiliates.

Scott5114

I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

kernals12

Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.

Just in time supply chains aren't shit, they're wonderful. They save money and reduce risk.

Even in Pre-COVID times, our infrastructure was causing problems. Congestion at the port of LA/LB was causing hell for supply chains.

SEWIGuy

Quote from: vdeane on November 12, 2021, 02:36:51 PM
In this hypothetical world with teleporters, why would people still go to stores and the like?  Why wouldn't Amazon just give everyone with Prime a teleporter, and then one second shipping would eliminate the need to go anywhere?  Why have the middleman when all you need is the warehouse and the teleporter? I'm imagining warehouse companies teleporting goods in from factories and then out to customers, with lots of jobs lost due to being obsolete.

Granted, there's still the experience of going to the store, browsing the selection, and finding what you want... but that's not what was depicted in the OP.


Some jobs are lost, many are gained.  Like with almost every technological improvement.

HighwayStar

Quote from: SEWIGuy on November 12, 2021, 02:16:32 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on November 12, 2021, 11:03:05 AM
Second, the current crisis in shipping is really not about either infrastructure or labor issues, so much as trade issues. In short, we buy far too much from Asia, to the point where we can't get it off the boats fast enough, that is a sign of trouble. If those goods were being produced in the US we would not be seeing anything like this kind of problem.


But we have been buying a lot of stuff from Asia for a long time now, and this was never a problem.

Building it here isn't a solution either.  It would make everything more expensive, and global free trade has been largely good for the United States.

It was always a problem, because it creates a sensitive failure point.
Its like eating nothing but red meat and ice cream and then telling your cardiologist "this was never a problem before now", sure you never had a heart attack up to this point, but you were creating conditions for one to occur.

Building it here is a solution, and this "it makes everything more expensive" line is such utter BS. Global free trade has not been "largely good" for the US, it has been largely good for a very small elite at the top and bad for everyone else. And that is without considering it from a strategic standpoint.
There are those who travel, and those who travel well

HighwayStar

Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 03:50:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.

Just in time supply chains aren't shit, they're wonderful. They save money and reduce risk.

Even in Pre-COVID times, our infrastructure was causing problems. Congestion at the port of LA/LB was causing hell for supply chains.

Just in time creates more risk than it reduces.
There are those who travel, and those who travel well

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 03:50:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.

Just in time supply chains aren't shit, they're wonderful. They save money and reduce risk.

Even in Pre-COVID times, our infrastructure was causing problems. Congestion at the port of LA/LB was causing hell for supply chains.

I mean it is a port, I don't know what grand designs you think are going to happen there.  Perhaps I'm missing how the misfortunes of the Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles have anything to do with general highway infrastructure in the area?  Are you saying that there isn't sufficient highway infrastructure to the ports in question and they are somehow contributing to ships not being offloaded?

HighwayStar

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 12, 2021, 04:54:58 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 03:50:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.

Just in time supply chains aren't shit, they're wonderful. They save money and reduce risk.

Even in Pre-COVID times, our infrastructure was causing problems. Congestion at the port of LA/LB was causing hell for supply chains.

I mean it is a port, I don't know what grand designs you think are going to happen there.  Perhaps I'm missing how the misfortunes of the Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles have anything to do with general highway infrastructure in the area?  Are you saying that there isn't sufficient highway infrastructure to the ports in question and they are somehow contributing to ships not being offloaded?

Its interesting how ports/wharves on the east coast are in many cases semi-abandoned, yet these are overflowing with problems in SoCal. Its a sign of trade imbalance.
There are those who travel, and those who travel well

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: HighwayStar on November 12, 2021, 04:56:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 12, 2021, 04:54:58 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 03:50:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.

Just in time supply chains aren't shit, they're wonderful. They save money and reduce risk.

Even in Pre-COVID times, our infrastructure was causing problems. Congestion at the port of LA/LB was causing hell for supply chains.

I mean it is a port, I don't know what grand designs you think are going to happen there.  Perhaps I'm missing how the misfortunes of the Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles have anything to do with general highway infrastructure in the area?  Are you saying that there isn't sufficient highway infrastructure to the ports in question and they are somehow contributing to ships not being offloaded?

Its interesting how ports/wharves on the east coast are in many cases semi-abandoned, yet these are overflowing with problems in SoCal. Its a sign of trade imbalance.

And to that end I could see the merit in increasing the number of major ports.  I would be curious to see the difference in freight volume at the Bay Area Ports along with the Port of Seattle compared to Long Beach/Los Angeles.

J N Winkler

AIUI, our supply chain woes result largely from an imbalance between demand for goods and demand for services that has resulted from the covid pandemic pushing consumers to reallocate their spending from one to the other.

It's easy to design a supply chain for an unvarying demand pattern, whether you use teleportation or twenty-mule teams.  Dealing with change, especially abrupt change, is where all the problems come in.
"It is necessary to spend a hundred lire now to save a thousand lire later."--Piero Puricelli, explaining the need for a first-class road system to Benito Mussolini

Scott5114

Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 03:50:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.

Just in time supply chains aren't shit, they're wonderful. They save money and reduce risk.

As a 9-year business owner...any business model that might result in me having to let a customer down because of the fuck-up of someone outside of my command structure is shit. I don't sell anything I don't have possession of already. I would much rather carry the risk of product damage or shrink–which I can write off or claim against insurance and then replace–than carry a risk to my business's reputation by promising something I can't deliver, which can't be written off or easily fixed.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

HighwayStar

Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 05:39:42 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on November 12, 2021, 03:50:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 12, 2021, 02:48:41 PM
I think you guys are getting too hung up on the particulars of the analogy and are missing his point, which is that just-in-time supply chains are shit. He posits that they can be made less shit by improving infrastructure, which I feel like is true, but it's also true that infrastructure isn't the current limiting factor.

Just in time supply chains aren't shit, they're wonderful. They save money and reduce risk.

As a 9-year business owner...any business model that might result in me having to let a customer down because of the fuck-up of someone outside of my command structure is shit. I don't sell anything I don't have possession of already. I would much rather carry the risk of product damage or shrink–which I can write off or claim against insurance and then replace–than carry a risk to my business's reputation by promising something I can't deliver, which can't be written off or easily fixed.

While I am inclined to agree with this, I think we need to make a distinction here.
Large businesses and small businesses have different models here. For a small business the cost of inventory is a cost, but one that can be more easily justified. For a large corporation that cost gets hard to justify.
Also, a small business not selling a product is the business's problem. A large business not selling a product becomes the customer's problem.
Like the old saying, if you owe the bank 10k dollars, that is your problem. If you owe the bank 10B dollars, that is the bank's problem.
Its understandable why large businesses have gone to this model, because all the risk is tail risk and that is a problem for some other quarter. The issue is more in crafting policies to manage that incentive the other direction.
There are those who travel, and those who travel well

Bruce

Individual trucks going from the same port to the same bank of warehouses is so inefficient. It's finally catching up to us with the recent labor crisis (born of people finally being able to stand up to awful conditions and pay), but it was definitely coming.



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