I-10 to the east carries around 30,000 AADT. The vast majority is coming from San Antonio. A combined highway from both San Marcos and New Braunfels to I-10 carrying maybe up to 20,000 AADT in the long term is more than adequate.
You're under-estimating current AADT counts and just plain ignoring the future potential.
According to TX DOT's TCDS database the TX-46 corridor from New Braunfels to Seguin ranges from 37,828 at I-35, drops to 19,908 at I-10. TX-46 is mostly a 5-lane undivided road along that segment. Also, TX-46 doesn't intersect with the TX-130 toll road at all. Anyone in the New Braunfels area heading to Houston would be going out of their way to use TX-130 at all in their road trip.
TX-80 in San Marcos at I-35 has a 32,120 AADT. That number soon drops in half and then well below 10,000 AADT farther South where there is currently little commercial or residential development. Considering all the population growth in that region things can change dramatically.
As for the southern end of SH-130, it’s sort of perpendicular to I-10 at that point.
The overall route, as crooked as it was built, is still a parallel route for I-35. No one in that region driving to Houston is going to stay on TX-130 all the way to its South terminus at I-10. People driving from the San Marcos area are going to use TX-80 & US-183 to get to I-10, not TX-130. US-183 will be the route of choice for people in Lockhart. Farther North they're going to be using TX-71 and US-290 to go to Houston.