Memphis and Saint Louis after a bad New Madrid earthquake

[bugo]

If a big one hits, the damage to these two cities, especially Memphis, will be catastrophic and possibly will be the worst disaster in history up to that point.  And I misspoke: It's not "if" it happens, it's "when" it happens.  When the land stops shaking, what will be done with the rubble?  All 4 Memphis bridges will have to be rebuilt.  Highways like I-40, I-55, and I-69 might have to be completely relocated and rebuilt from scratch.  If Memphis is nothing more than a wasteland and an post-civilized battlefield, will they route I-40 up Sam Cooper and through the former Overland Park?  I have a feeling that Memphis will be especially hard hit, with massive soil liquification and rerouting of the Mississippi River.  A bad quake would destroy major cities like Blytheville, Jonesboro, Cape Girardeau, and Piggott.  So how would the road system be changed after a catastrophic New Madrid Earthquake?

[codyg1985]

The economic impact from these vital connections being severed will be huge, too.

[Stephane Dumas]

Not only the roads, but also the railroads will be severed as well as well as gas and oil pipelines.  I-70 and I-20 might be impacted as well and the shock might be fell as far north as Chicago and Milwaukee. Depending if it'll hard as the Earthquake of 1812 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone

And the Mississippi river rerouting, would the quake enough powerful to divert some part of the Mississippi waters into Lake Michigan via the canals linking Lake Michigan to the Illinois River?

[kharvey10]

Memphis is closer to the fault line than St. Louis, and Memphis would likely be hit harder.  This area is long overdue for a major earthquake to happen, as the last large one happened back in the 1960s

[triplemultiplex]

And the Mississippi river rerouting, would the quake enough powerful to divert some part of the Mississippi waters into Lake Michigan via the canals linking Lake Michigan to the Illinois River?

Any rerouting of the Mississippi is only going to involve the channel shifting east or west a little (mile or so) and only over a short segment.  There is absolutely no way you could permanently reverse the flow of a river with just one quake.  It can happen temporarily because the quake opened a fissure and water poured in or an area of land is thrust up or down causing the stream to shift channels and drain the old channel.  But in a flat, alluvial landscape like the lower Mississippi, even the biggest earthquake is only going to generate localized alterations to the hydrography.

So any changes in streams and drainage will be confined to the local area of the fault that slips.  Also, they will only happen if one of the thrust faults in the New Madrid area is the one that goes.  There are also strike-slip faults in the area and those don't deform the land surface nearly as much.

Nothing short of another ice age is going to alter the destination of tributaries of the Mississippi.

[Hot Rod Hootenanny]

And the Mississippi river rerouting, would the quake enough powerful to divert some part of the Mississippi waters into Lake Michigan via the canals linking Lake Michigan to the Illinois River?

Any rerouting of the Mississippi is only going to involve the channel shifting east or west a little (mile or so) and only over a short segment.  There is absolutely no way you could permanently reverse the flow of a river with just one quake.  It can happen temporarily because the quake opened a fissure and water poured in or an area of land is thrust up or down causing the stream to shift channels and drain the old channel.  But in a flat, alluvial landscape like the lower Mississippi, even the biggest earthquake is only going to generate localized alterations to the hydrography.

So any changes in streams and drainage will be confined to the local area of the fault that slips.  Also, they will only happen if one of the thrust faults in the New Madrid area is the one that goes.  There are also strike-slip faults in the area and those don't deform the land surface nearly as much.

Nothing short of another ice age is going to alter the destination of tributaries of the Mississippi.

Or the colapse of the Old River Control Structure and/or Morganza Control Structure down in Louisiana.

[JeffB]

And the Mississippi river rerouting, would the quake enough powerful to divert some part of the Mississippi waters into Lake Michigan via the canals linking Lake Michigan to the Illinois River?

Any rerouting of the Mississippi is only going to involve the channel shifting east or west a little (mile or so) and only over a short segment.  There is absolutely no way you could permanently reverse the flow of a river with just one quake.  It can happen temporarily because the quake opened a fissure and water poured in or an area of land is thrust up or down causing the stream to shift channels and drain the old channel.  But in a flat, alluvial landscape like the lower Mississippi, even the biggest earthquake is only going to generate localized alterations to the hydrography.

So any changes in streams and drainage will be confined to the local area of the fault that slips.  Also, they will only happen if one of the thrust faults in the New Madrid area is the one that goes.  There are also strike-slip faults in the area and those don't deform the land surface nearly as much.

Nothing short of another ice age is going to alter the destination of tributaries of the Mississippi.

Or the colapse of the Old River Control Structure and/or Morganza Control Structure down in Louisiana.

I spent a couple hours looking at that system up close a few years ago, it's a magnificent feat of engineering.  But one has to think that the river can't be held back forever.

[mgk920]

Well, IMHO, the next 'Big One™' from the New Madrid fault zone will likely cause widespread non-catastrophic damage in Chicagoland (major tall building sway, non-structural damage to masonry buildings, items falling off of walls and shelves, etc), will be very noticeable with minor damage in Milwaukee and certainly be felt here in Appleton, WI.

Rail freight traffic can certainly be rerouted away from that region and I can easily see the USArmy CoE quickly setting up temporary pontoon bridges to restore road crossings of the Mississippi River in the fault zone area.

Mike

[tidecat]

I've also heard of the possibility that a "relay" quake along the New Madrid could have an effect places all along the Great Lakes and Ohio River, such as Louisville, Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, and Buffalo.

[Grzrd]

A $100 million museum in Union City, TN will soon have a theater that will simulate the "sights, sound and shock" of the 1811-12 earthquakes:

To build Discovery Park of America, this rural community is spending the money of a retired businessman, tapping the brainpower of 250 citizens comprising 25 committees, and using the nation's and Memphis's leading museum architects, exhibit developers and landscape architects.
An October opening is planned for a museum-like complex that would befit Chicago's lakeshore or Central Park's border.
One theater will make visitors feel they're on the bridge of a spaceship, traveling the universe via a wrap-around screen showing real outerspace images.
Another theater will recreate the sights, sounds and shock of the severe New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12, which formed the nearby Reelfoot Lake.
Other "wow" factors: A hologram of a storytelling Native American; a five-foot-diameter, 3D globe that shows everything from shifting continents to current weather systems; a 50-foot, stylized sculpture of a human body whose left leg doubles as a kids' slide; a 20,000-gallon aquarium visitors can walk into; airplanes suspended high in a vast atrium; $2 million-$3 million in newly acquired antique vehicles; dynamic floor tiles that create the illusion you're falling into the abyss; and the signature architectural piece – a tower with a glass-enclosed observation deck 120 feet tall topped by a flagpole 200 feet high.

[rte66man]

A $100 million museum in Union City, TN will soon have a theater that will simulate the "sights, sound and shock" of the 1811-12 earthquakes:

To build Discovery Park of America, this rural community is spending the money of a retired businessman, tapping the brainpower of 250 citizens comprising 25 committees, and using the nation's and Memphis's leading museum architects, exhibit developers and landscape architects.
An October opening is planned for a museum-like complex that would befit Chicago's lakeshore or Central Park's border.
One theater will make visitors feel they're on the bridge of a spaceship, traveling the universe via a wrap-around screen showing real outerspace images.
Another theater will recreate the sights, sounds and shock of the severe New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12, which formed the nearby Reelfoot Lake.
Other "wow" factors: A hologram of a storytelling Native American; a five-foot-diameter, 3D globe that shows everything from shifting continents to current weather systems; a 50-foot, stylized sculpture of a human body whose left leg doubles as a kids' slide; a 20,000-gallon aquarium visitors can walk into; airplanes suspended high in a vast atrium; $2 million-$3 million in newly acquired antique vehicles; dynamic floor tiles that create the illusion you're falling into the abyss; and the signature architectural piece — a tower with a glass-enclosed observation deck 120 feet tall topped by a flagpole 200 feet high.

If you've ever been to Union City, the first question that would come to your mind is, "What on earth is there to see from an observation tower?"

rte66man

[Speedway99]

If Memphis is nothing more than a wasteland and an post-civilized battlefield, will they route I-40 up Sam Cooper and through the former Overland Park?

BTW, it's Overton Park in Memphis, not Overland Park, which is a KC suburb.

[bugo]

If Memphis is nothing more than a wasteland and an post-civilized battlefield, will they route I-40 up Sam Cooper and through the former Overland Park?

BTW, it's Overton Park in Memphis, not Overland Park, which is a KC suburb.

Typo.  I used to work in Overland Park, so I was probably thinking of it.

[3467]

The Geologists have changed their risk maps a few times. I can tell you the ionsuracne companies changed their assesments. I am in Central Illinois and my Earthquake insurance went up from 25 dollars a year to 185 in just the last few years

[Brandon]

I've also heard of the possibility that a "relay" quake along the New Madrid could have an effect places all along the Great Lakes and Ohio River, such as Louisville, Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, and Buffalo.

Basically, due to the geology of the US east of the Rocky Mountains, an earthquake there can be felt and cause damage as far away as Washington, DC, Boston, or New York.

[3467]

IL and Mo did a Seismic Retrofit on the PSB some years ago. I saw it in an IDOT 5 Year plan.
IDOT like Joe operates on a 5YP

[Road Hog]

Memphis is built on a bluff, so it should withstand the quake better than the Arkansas side, which is alluvial soil that will turn to jelly. The flatlands are where the greatest effects will be. That's not to say Memphis won't suffer extensive damage. There's not much you can do in an 8.0.

[ShawnP]

Reelfoot lake in NW Tenn was created from the earthquake as it shifted the Mississippi River. A quake like that these days would do damage in the Hundreds of Billions.

[msunat97]

The "big one" on the New Madrid fault would be devastating.  I-40 is so heavily traveled as the main East-West trucking route that we might see economic impacts across the country for a long while.

Plus, with the composition of the soil & rock under the soil, the shock waves could impact all of Arkansas.  I live in Little Rock & it would nail us.

[O Tamandua]

Not only the roads, but also the railroads will be severed as well as well as gas and oil pipelines.  I-70 and I-20 might be impacted as well and the shock might be fell as far north as Chicago and Milwaukee. Depending if it'll hard as the Earthquake of 1812 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone

And the Mississippi river rerouting, would the quake enough powerful to divert some part of the Mississippi waters into Lake Michigan via the canals linking Lake Michigan to the Illinois River?

As I recall, aren't there really only four railroad bridges between St. Louis and Baton Rouge?

1.  Thebes(IL)-Illmo(MO) bridge just south of Cape Girardeau...links the Union Pacific Chicago and St. Louis lines to the boot heel and therefore the directional Texas lines via Poplar Bluff (northbound traffic) and Jonesboro (southbound) plus UP Louisiana.  CSX and predecessor Conrail ran/run their North Little Rock - Indianapolis and vice versa trains over this bringing Michigan/Ohio/mid-Atlantic/New England traffic through to Texas and Louisiana. (HEAVILY used)

2.  Memphis.  (The parallel by a few yards Frisco and Harahan bridges - 'nuff said - HEAVILY used with UP/BNSF interchange with CN/CSX/NS)

3.  Vicksburg (Kansas City Southern's "Meridian Speedway", heavily used and THE connection between Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta, heavily financed by NS as well.)

If a big quake hits down there that destroys Memphis the Thebes bridge will likely be affected as well.  Don't know about Vicksburg.  Imagine, though, if the only rail connections over the lower Mississippi were severed at all points between St. Louis and Vicksburg (or Baton Rouge, though I think that unlikely, hopefully)...if "St.Louis-Vicksburg", that would leave almost 500 miles of Mississippi River without a working railroad bridge.    (That said, I do think a lot of if not all the Thebes traffic could be routed along UPs current northbound-directional line south from St. Louis to Poplar Bluff...BOY would it choke that line, though.  (Remembering what happened when UP and SP did their merger around 1997, seeing trains stopped seemingly every five miles between Bossier City, Lewisville and Pine Bluff along the old "Cotton Belt".))

[bugo]

According to AHTD maps, there was once a rail ferry at Helena, AR.  The current maps don't show it, so I assume it was closed.

[NE2]

According to AHTD maps, there was once a rail ferry at Helena, AR.  The current maps don't show it, so I assume it was closed.

In 1972: http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/507/t/42151.aspx

There used to be a bunch of rail ferries on the Mississippi (including some not in this list); the last was apparently at Natchez-Vidalia (1982). If the bridges were taken out of service, they'd be the best bet for quick restoration of service. The main issue is getting trains down the bluffs to river level; this was usually done with steep inclines.

[bugo]

The ferry was shown on the AHTD maps up into the '80s.  Just a mapo, I'm sure.

[Urban Prairie Schooner]

According to AHTD maps, there was once a rail ferry at Helena, AR.  The current maps don't show it, so I assume it was closed.

In 1972: http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/507/t/42151.aspx

There used to be a bunch of rail ferries on the Mississippi (including some not in this list); the last was apparently at Natchez-Vidalia (1982). If the bridges were taken out of service, they'd be the best bet for quick restoration of service. The main issue is getting trains down the bluffs to river level; this was usually done with steep inclines.

Couldn't re-use the Natchez-Vidalia rail ferry crossing without reconstructing a hundred or so miles of rail line that it formerly served on the Louisiana side of the river. The rail lines from Vidalia to Ferriday and north and west from there have been gone since at least the late 1980s. The rights of way may still be available, though.

I imagine similar issues may be in play for other former rail ferry crossings.

[NE2]

I imagine similar issues may be in play for other former rail ferry crossings.

They'd put in a quick and dirty temporary ferry near the site of the damaged bridge.