NFL (2024 Season)

[JayhawkCO]

Coming off an excellent week 13, I'm prepared for a letdown.

Saints 24, Jets 9
Seahawks 27, Texans 20
Chiefs 26, Raiders 10
Ravens 35, Browns 19
Cowboys 31, Washington 27
Titans 28, Jaguars 23
Giants 23, Chargers 20
Broncos 22, Lions 20
49ers 33, Bengals 20
Buccaneers 38, Bills 24
Packers 42, Bears 17
Cardinals 30, Rams 29

The last four weeks, I've been 7, 6, 7, and 7 total points off on Jets games, which is an outstanding run. Hopefully it continues this week against the Saints.

Nothing like a date with the Browns to get the Ravens offense back on track.

Giants/Chargers is a battle of two of the weirdest teams in the league. You would think that the Giants possibly starting a quarterback from the street dramatically increases the Chargers' chances of winning, but the Chargers don't follow the usual rules.

Take what the Patriots did to the Bills last week, add the MVP-led #1 passing offense, add even more dominance over the Bills at the line of scrimmage, add good weather, and you get the Bills' fourth highly embarrassing loss in six games. It won't be as close as my 38-24 prediction indicates, Buffalo will get a couple late touchdowns as the Bucs' undermanned secondary wears down.

I would not be surprised if the Rams won, but I give them a slightly less than 50% chance.

I'll take CLE over BAL, LAC over NYG, WAS over DAL, and CIN over SF.  Since you didn't pick them, I'll also take MIN over PIT and CAR over ATL.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

There are like 4-5 Vikings wins this season where I have sat there and go "what the actual fuck" and feel like a loss. Lions I, Panthers, Steelers were three of them.

[thspfc]

That was a top 3 worst fourth quarter collapse that I've ever seen. Vikings just forgot how to play football in every aspect of the game. However, I disagree with the narrative that the win should "feel like a loss" . The fourth quarter will be all that anyone remembers, but let's not totally forget about how dominant the Vikings were in the first 2.5. And the Steelers, while not great, are a lot better than the Lions.

Joe Burrow leads the league in interceptions thrown. I just heard that this morning, and I was astonished that I hadn't heard about it before. He's also only 17th in pass attempts. This season there's been a ton of chatter about Mahomes throwing interceptions. He's thrown 12, on 478 passes, the second most in the league. Yet when Burrow throws picks, crickets.

Makes you think.

[thspfc]

Get a load of this angered and motivated Washington team, huh? How dare McCarthy speak confidently! Those silly words are going to make them start trying, because they certainly didn't already need to play well in order to feed their families.

[Big John]

Get a load of this angered and motivated Washington team, huh? How dare McCarthy speak confidently! Those silly words are going to make them start trying, because they certainly didn't already need to play well in order to feed their families.

How about the Cowboys bringing in their own benches?

[thspfc]

Get a load of this angered and motivated Washington team, huh? How dare McCarthy speak confidently! Those silly words are going to make them start trying, because they certainly didn't already need to play well in order to feed their families.

How about the Cowboys bringing in their own benches?

Hey, it worked!

[bwana39]

Get a load of this angered and motivated Washington team, huh? How dare McCarthy speak confidently! Those silly words are going to make them start trying, because they certainly didn't already need to play well in order to feed their families.

How about the Cowboys bringing in their own benches?

You know the NFL apparently works differently than most businesses. Broken benches on the visitor side and good ones on the home side. We don't see a Motel-6 and a Hilton in the same building...

[thspfc]

Solid showing by the Cowboys defense. Their top pass rushers are healthy now, and they got the best of Washington's line. Offense was suspect, but at least Zuerlein made his field goals. And I'm not as concerned about the offense as I am about the defense down the stretch. The win should pretty much lock up the NFC East, but unless they can beat Arizona, the #4 seed is likely.

Chargers decided to be normal for once.

I don't understand why the Jags haven't fired Urban yet.

My run of oddly impressive Jets predictions continues. I legitimately don't think I've watched a single Jets game in my life. Yet I watch the Cowboys all the time, and I'm still consistently wrong.

[webny99]

Wow, a lot to get to in this thread, including some shots fired in my direction that I might... or might not... come back and address at some point. But for now, a fork update:

Below I'm starting a list of teams that are, to use an Around the NFL term, "forked" (out of the playoff picture). The idea is to be aggressive and fork a team early, well before they're mathematically eliminated, and to get all 18 forks correct before the final week of the season.

Existing list of forked teams (bold indicates team has been eliminated from postseason contention):

AFC: Jaguars, Jets, Texans, Dolphins
NFC: Lions, Bears, Giants, Seahawks

Added 12/13/2021:
AFC: Steelers, Raiders

[TheHighwayMan3561]

The race for the NFC #7 is weird as hell. 5 teams are 6-7 tied for that spot with Washington currently holding it. Washington and Philly still haven't played either of their games against each other. The two NFCS teams will beat on each other, plus the Bucs and Bills will probably get some licks in on those three. Vikings have Bears twice, Rams, Packers at Lambeau. I know the Vikings will screw it up but...they seem to have the schedule least full of other teams going for the same thing.

[webny99]

Including the #7 seed in the playoffs does make the playoff race a lot more interesting. It's shaping up similar to last year where a mediocre to bad team will probably make it in the NFC, but a decent team or two might still get left out in the AFC.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Including the #7 seed in the playoffs does make the playoff race a lot more interesting. It's shaping up similar to last year where a mediocre to bad team will probably make it in the NFC, but a decent team or two might still get left out in the AFC.

I know money is all they care about, but I saw zero need for additional playoff teams.

[oscar]

Wow, a lot to get to in this thread, including some shots fired in my direction that I might... or might not... come back and address at some point. But for now, a fork update:

Below I'm starting a list of teams that are, to use an Around the NFL term, "forked" (out of the playoff picture). The idea is to be aggressive and fork a team early, well before they're mathematically eliminated, and to get all 18 forks correct before the final week of the season.

Existing list of forked teams (bold indicates team has been eliminated from postseason contention):

AFC: Jaguars, Jets, Texans, Dolphins
NFC: Lions, Bears, Giants, Seahawks

Added 12/13/2021:
AFC: Steelers, Raiders

How about my Carolina Panthers?

Maybe also the others in the NFC South besides the Bucs, though I'm not yet ready to write off the Saints.

[webny99]

How about my Carolina Panthers?

I decided not to jinx it given their opponent next week.

Falcons and Saints are on the verge too, but decided to give them one more week as they currently have the same record as the #7 seed!

[epzik8]

As a Washington fan, but lifelong resident of the Baltimore metro and forced observer of the Ravens, I've been treated to much discourse from the Ravens' fanbase this year.

[Alps]

Including the #7 seed in the playoffs does make the playoff race a lot more interesting. It's shaping up similar to last year where a mediocre to bad team will probably make it in the NFC, but a decent team or two might still get left out in the AFC.

The playoff race is equally interesting, it's just dumbed down one more peg.

[thspfc]

Thought the Rams were going to lose a close one, but as I said, not as surprised as most that they won. Stat Padford went 23/30 for 287 yds, 3 touchdowns, and no turnovers in a great garbage time performance, locker-room-chemistry-destroyer OBJ caught a touchdown, some scrub named Cooper Kupp had 13 catches, and a couple other scrubs named Donald and Miller had a field day on the Cardinals' offensive line.

[webny99]

Including the #7 seed in the playoffs does make the playoff race a lot more interesting. It's shaping up similar to last year where a mediocre to bad team will probably make it in the NFC, but a decent team or two might still get left out in the AFC.

The playoff race is equally interesting, it's just dumbed down one more peg.

More interesting in the sense that more teams are in the mix later in the season. Under the old format there would be basically zero intrigue in the NFC right now: division leaders plus Rams and 49ers and there's your field.

[triplemultiplex]

Man, four successful onside kicks this past week.  Haven't seen anything close to that since they changed the rules about lining up for an onside.

[JayhawkCO]

Joe Burrow leads the league in interceptions thrown. I just heard that this morning, and I was astonished that I hadn't heard about it before. He's also only 17th in pass attempts. This season there's been a ton of chatter about Mahomes throwing interceptions. He's thrown 12, on 478 passes, the second most in the league. Yet when Burrow throws picks, crickets.

Makes you think.

And then he was the highest rated passer this past weekend.  The NFL is weird this year.

[webny99]

-Falcons are probably the worst 5-6 team in NFL history. They're sort of like the anti-Bills... the Bills either win blowouts or lose close games, while the Falcons either win close games or lose blowouts. The Falcons have been boat-raced 4 times this season (Weeks 1, 2, 10, and 11), but their remaining games have all been one-score games and they're 5-2 in those games. This is not a good team, but it's also a franchise known for choking, so if they can learn to consistently close out games and maybe even get to 8 or 9 wins with a first-year head coach, I think you have to consider it a successful season.

Wow, an article foretold by me several weeks ago. Another two-score loss, another one-score win, and voila!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-falcons-the-best-bad-team-ever/

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Aaaaaaaaaand Urban Meyer is finally gone about 6 weeks too late.

[webny99]

Aaaaaaaaaand Urban Meyer is finally gone about 6 weeks too late.

More like 10 weeks if you think the bar incident after Week 4 was the point of no return.

I can't believe the Bills lost to that team. That has to be the low point of a season that has had many. Had Urban lasted the entire season, I would have said with zero hesitation that the wind game loss to the Patriots was the low point. But now that we know Urban is done after 13 games, and one of his only two wins, his only home win, and only win on US soil, was over the Bills? I mean, that takes the cake. You just can't make this stuff up. 

Ultimately though, aside from all the drama and off-the-field nonsense, I think the Jaguars offense is a much bigger issue than their defense. They haven't scored more than 17 points since their bye, and the offense didn't play well against the Bills either. My one silver lining is that a 9-6 final is one of the lowest scoring games in recent memory, so it's likely to be remembered more as the Josh Allen on Josh Allen game in which both sides played really good defense more so than Urban's only career home win... at least I hope so.

[thspfc]

Disaster. Worst coaching tenure I've ever seen. Urban forgot he was dealing with grown men who are getting paid millions, and he tried to treat them the same way he treated his 19 year olds at Ohio State.

I have a general theory about coaches: relaxed personality +  winning = players really like you and you can keep your job for a while even after things go south. "Tough guy"  personality + winning = might not be the players' best friend, but as long as the team is winning, it works. Relaxed personality + losing = gone after two years. "Tough guy"  personality + losing = one and done, or should have been one and done (ahem, Joe Judge, Matt Patricia).

Good thing that Urban and his bullying and drama are out of the league. Unfortunately now he's do the same thing at some university knowing that it will go completely unpunished.

[thspfc]

Aaaaaaaaaand Urban Meyer is finally gone about 6 weeks too late.

More like 10 weeks if you think the bar incident after Week 4 was the point of no return.

I can't believe the Bills lost to that team. That has to be the low point of a season that has had many. Had Urban lasted the entire season, I would have said with zero hesitation that the wind game loss to the Patriots was the low point. But now that we know Urban is done after 13 games, and one of his only two wins, his only home win, and only win on US soil, was over the Bills? I mean, that takes the cake. You just can't make this stuff up. 

Ultimately though, aside from all the drama and off-the-field nonsense, I think the Jaguars offense is a much bigger issue than their defense. They haven't scored more than 17 points since their bye, and the offense didn't play well against the Bills either. My one silver lining is that a 9-6 final is one of the lowest scoring games in recent memory, so it's likely to be remembered more as the Josh Allen on Josh Allen game in which both sides played really good defense more so than Urban's only career home win... at least I hope so.

I wonder what the best upset of the season so far is. Either the Josh Allen game, the Lions beating the Vikings, or the Texans beating the Titans. Though none of those scorelines were as astonishing as the Saints' drubbing of the Packers way back in week 1.