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Non-Road Boards => Off-Topic => Topic started by: Bruce on January 21, 2020, 04:49:28 PM

Title: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on January 21, 2020, 04:49:28 PM
[Original title: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed]

And at my local hospital no less.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/01/21/coronavirus-us-case/
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: ozarkman417 on January 24, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
A second case has been confirmed and the stocks are having a bad time as a result.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on January 24, 2020, 05:56:55 PM
Also, they are now thoroughly screening for this coronavirus at twenty airports nationwide.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4596689002 (https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4596689002)
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on January 24, 2020, 09:14:13 PM
https://abc7chicago.com/health/coronavirus-diagnosed-in-chicago-woman;-2nd-case-in-us/5875738/ (https://abc7chicago.com/health/coronavirus-diagnosed-in-chicago-woman;-2nd-case-in-us/5875738/)


Another Case of the CoronaVirus is reported in the Chicago area.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on January 26, 2020, 04:36:05 AM
Three more coronavirus cases confirmed; one in Orange County CA, one in Los Angeles County, and one in Maricopa County aka the Phoenix area.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/third-us-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-california-health-officials-say.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/third-us-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-california-health-officials-say.html)
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on January 26, 2020, 10:04:51 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/world/china-coronavirus.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/world/china-coronavirus.html)


Update 56 people reported dead by the CoronaVirus.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US71 on January 26, 2020, 10:24:26 AM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on January 24, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
A second case has been confirmed and the stocks are having a bad time as a result.

Why do stocks matter? Only people wealthy enough to afford stocks care about the stock market..
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on January 27, 2020, 11:38:54 PM
https://www.wmur.com/article/2-people-in-nh-isolated-undergoing-testing-for-coronavirus/30680624
Now New Hampshire is reported to get hit with Coronavirus.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on January 28, 2020, 08:01:08 AM
Meanwhile the coronavirus (which would be of unknown origin if I mentioned it on Twitter due to reasons known to everyone) hasn't reached Spain yet. We have had a few suspect cases, though, all of which turned out to be something else. However in the country that lies just across the Pyrenees (France) there are 3 confirmed cases, and another one in Germany.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: SectorZ on January 28, 2020, 08:32:37 AM
Quote from: US71 on January 26, 2020, 10:24:26 AM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on January 24, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
A second case has been confirmed and the stocks are having a bad time as a result.

Why do stocks matter? Only people wealthy enough to afford stocks care about the stock market..

Not to get off topic here, but I guess you don't know how 401(k) systems work?
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on January 28, 2020, 08:46:58 AM
https://kesq.com/news/national-world/2020/01/28/death-toll-from-wuhan-coronavirus-tops-100-as-infection-rate-accelerates/


100 people reported dead by the Coronavirus.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on January 28, 2020, 11:20:14 AM
Quote from: US71 on January 26, 2020, 10:24:26 AM
Why do stocks matter? Only people wealthy enough to afford stocks care about the stock market..

Waiting for . . .

(https://i.imgflip.com/2n17nf.jpg)
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US71 on January 28, 2020, 12:16:09 PM
Quote from: bing101 on January 28, 2020, 08:46:58 AM
https://kesq.com/news/national-world/2020/01/28/death-toll-from-wuhan-coronavirus-tops-100-as-infection-rate-accelerates/


100 people reported dead by the Coronavirus.

That's it! I'll have to stop drinking Corona :p
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: vdeane on January 28, 2020, 12:25:48 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on January 28, 2020, 08:32:37 AM
Quote from: US71 on January 26, 2020, 10:24:26 AM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on January 24, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
A second case has been confirmed and the stocks are having a bad time as a result.

Why do stocks matter? Only people wealthy enough to afford stocks care about the stock market..

Not to get off topic here, but I guess you don't know how 401(k) systems work?
You put your money into index funds or managed funds (whichever your company offers... index funds are better if you can get them because they don't include fees) with your approximate retirement timeframe and then don't panic until you get close to retirement (by which point most of your funds should be bonds anyways).  Does anyone really try to individually manage everything?
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: nexus73 on January 28, 2020, 06:53:45 PM
Captain Trips and "The Stand" anyone?  So far we are not at that stage or even the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which killed my maternal grandmother's mother and set events in motion that led to how our family came about. 

The real stress test is not the disease as much as the societal strain that the People's Republic Of China is undergoing.  There are enough glowing embers in the Celestial Kingdom that it seems like at any time some surprising developments will take place. 

Rick
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on January 30, 2020, 10:57:32 PM
Wuhan Virus now a urgent situation as per the World Health Organization https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov) (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov))
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on January 31, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
8200 = Deaths due to influenza in the USA alone since September 29, as of last week.
213 = Deaths due to the Wuhan coronavirus worldwide since December 1, as of today.

Forgive me if I'm not panicking.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on January 31, 2020, 10:24:42 AM
Quote from: kphoger on January 31, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
8200 = Deaths due to influenza in the USA alone since September 29, as of last week.
213 = Deaths due to the Wuhan coronavirus worldwide since December 1, as of today.

Forgive me if I'm not panicking.
Yeah but it helps to have knowledge of other countries' ongoing health crises you know.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on January 31, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
8200 = Deaths due to influenza in the USA alone since September 29, as of last week.
213 = Deaths due to the Wuhan coronavirus worldwide since December 1, as of today.

Forgive me if I'm not panicking.

I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on January 31, 2020, 05:52:33 PM
Aaaaand the coronavirus has made it to Spain. But fortunately not to the Peninsula, but to the Canary Islands, to La Gomera island. A German tourist who had been in contact with one confirmed case back in Germany.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: MNHighwayMan on January 31, 2020, 07:36:38 PM
Quote from: US71 on January 26, 2020, 10:24:26 AM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on January 24, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
A second case has been confirmed and the stocks are having a bad time as a result.
Why do stocks matter? Only people wealthy enough to afford stocks care about the stock market..

Because the stock market still greatly affects the economy at large. Ever hear about the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression?
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: Rothman on January 31, 2020, 09:02:44 PM
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on January 31, 2020, 07:36:38 PM
Quote from: US71 on January 26, 2020, 10:24:26 AM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on January 24, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
A second case has been confirmed and the stocks are having a bad time as a result.
Why do stocks matter? Only people wealthy enough to afford stocks care about the stock market..

Because the stock market still greatly affects the economy at large. Ever hear about the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression?
Right.  What's interesting there is that it wasn't broad public ownership of stocks causing personal bankruptcies that contributed to the Depression, but rather corporate ownership using stocks as bank accounts.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: vdeane on January 31, 2020, 10:08:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on January 31, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
8200 = Deaths due to influenza in the USA alone since September 29, as of last week.
213 = Deaths due to the Wuhan coronavirus worldwide since December 1, as of today.

Forgive me if I'm not panicking.

I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.
On ABC News tonight they quoted 9700 cases and 213 deaths, at least in China.  That's a 2.2% death rate for those infected.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on January 31, 2020, 11:21:14 PM
https://abc7news.com/5895060/ (https://abc7news.com/5895060/)


Now there is a report of a patient Coronavirus in the San Jose area


https://abc7.com/health/us-quarantines-american-evacuees-from-china-at-riverside-military-base/5895001/ (https://abc7.com/health/us-quarantines-american-evacuees-from-china-at-riverside-military-base/5895001/)


And here is another one at the Riverside military base.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 10:24:34 AM
Quote from: bing101 on January 31, 2020, 11:21:14 PM
https://abc7news.com/5895060/ (https://abc7news.com/5895060/)


Now there is a report of a patient Coronavirus in the San Jose area


https://abc7.com/health/us-quarantines-american-evacuees-from-china-at-riverside-military-base/5895001/ (https://abc7.com/health/us-quarantines-american-evacuees-from-china-at-riverside-military-base/5895001/)


And here is another one at the Riverside military base.
What I find amusing about that is that both Riverside and San Jose are both named streets here and lead to their eponymous neighborhoods that were once not part of the old city limits until 1967-1968. Also they are on opposite sides of the river here and Riverside is not far from the naval air station down river on US 17.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: webny99 on February 01, 2020, 04:49:37 PM
Quote from: vdeane on January 31, 2020, 10:08:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on January 31, 2020, 10:12:53 AM
8200 = Deaths due to influenza in the USA alone since September 29, as of last week.
213 = Deaths due to the Wuhan coronavirus worldwide since December 1, as of today.

Forgive me if I'm not panicking.

I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.
On ABC News tonight they quoted 9700 cases and 213 deaths, at least in China.  That's a 2.2% death rate for those infected.

I'm pretty sure less than 2.2% of people that get the flu die from it. Maybe 2.2% of those over 80 or something, but certainly not the population at large.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:15:57 PM
Apparently there is a confirmed case of a UMass student with the coronavirus, which I got word of when I turned on
the TV to CNN or whatever cable news channel I was watching about forty-five minutes ago.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM
Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:19:40 PM
Quote from: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM
Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.
That's what I was about to get to next, the cable news channels are obviously the worst offenders of this.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 02, 2020, 12:14:05 AM
There are reports of the first Filipino death from the coronavirus in the Philippines tonight.
Thus, the death toll has risen to the unfortunate number of 305 (it was 304 just before this–another unfortunate number). You can guess the pitfalls from this.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: Rothman on February 02, 2020, 12:43:57 AM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:15:57 PM
Apparently there is a confirmed case of a UMass student with the coronavirus, which I got word of when I turned on
the TV to CNN or whatever cable news channel I was watching about forty-five minutes ago.
UMass Amherst?
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 02, 2020, 12:46:50 AM
Quote from: Rothman on February 02, 2020, 12:43:57 AM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:15:57 PM
Apparently there is a confirmed case of a UMass student with the coronavirus, which I got word of when I turned on
the TV to CNN or whatever cable news channel I was watching about forty-five minutes ago.
UMass Amherst?
Actually, it was a UMass Boston student. You know, the one affiliated with a notable political family of which has their two notable sons names' on a airport in NYC and a sports venue in DC.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: Rothman on February 02, 2020, 12:48:05 AM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 02, 2020, 12:46:50 AM
Quote from: Rothman on February 02, 2020, 12:43:57 AM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:15:57 PM
Apparently there is a confirmed case of a UMass student with the coronavirus, which I got word of when I turned on
the TV to CNN or whatever cable news channel I was watching about forty-five minutes ago.
UMass Amherst?
Actually, it was a UMass Boston student. You know, the one affiliated with a notable political family of which has their two notable sons names' on a airports in NYC and a sports venue in DC.
Huh.  UMass Boston mainly a commuter school.  UMass Amherst is considered the flagship campus.

Wonder how the virus got in there.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 02, 2020, 01:42:00 AM
Quote from: Rothman on February 02, 2020, 12:48:05 AM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 02, 2020, 12:46:50 AM
Quote from: Rothman on February 02, 2020, 12:43:57 AM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:15:57 PM
Apparently there is a confirmed case of a UMass student with the coronavirus, which I got word of when I turned on
the TV to CNN or whatever cable news channel I was watching about forty-five minutes ago.
UMass Amherst?
Actually, it was a UMass Boston student. You know, the one affiliated with a notable political family of which has their two notable sons names' on a airports in NYC and a sports venue in DC.
Huh.  UMass Boston mainly a commuter school.  UMass Amherst is considered the flagship campus.

Wonder how the virus got in there.
It's definitely not far from Boston's Logan Airport and that's because of the MBTA network!
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 02, 2020, 09:46:39 AM
 https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/02/01/travis-afb-selected-to-house-overseas-travelers-exposed-to-coronavirus/ (https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/02/01/travis-afb-selected-to-house-overseas-travelers-exposed-to-coronavirus/)




Update Travis Air Force Base in Northern California is going to be a quarantine area for some of the Coronavirus victims.



https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/pentagon-approves-using-mcas-miramar-as-1-of-4-military-bases-to-quarantine-1000/2254825/ (https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/pentagon-approves-using-mcas-miramar-as-1-of-4-military-bases-to-quarantine-1000/2254825/)


https://fox5sandiego.com/2020/02/01/mcas-miramar-picked-as-1-of-4-possible-coronavirus-quarantine-locations-in-us/ (https://fox5sandiego.com/2020/02/01/mcas-miramar-picked-as-1-of-4-possible-coronavirus-quarantine-locations-in-us/)


Miramar in Southern California is going to be a quarantine area for Coronavirus victims.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 02, 2020, 05:16:24 PM
https://www.kktv.com/content/news/Fort-Carson-to-e-Coronavirus-Quarantine-Site-567496311.html
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/02/01/officials-sas-lackland-air-force-base-will-serve-as-potential-quarantine-zone-for-those-infected-with-coronavirus/

Fort Carson and Lackland are also mentioned to get Coronavirus victims.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: hotdogPi on February 02, 2020, 09:41:03 PM
So there are 9 cases in the US. Looking at where they are, it passes the randomness test for "choose 9 random people in the US" with two exceptions: Santa Clara is unlikely to have two by chance alone, and there's a bias toward cities.

By the way, the virus seeks out targets who spread conspiracy theories about it.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US71 on February 02, 2020, 10:31:46 PM
Quote from: 1 on February 02, 2020, 09:41:03 PM
So there are 9 cases in the US. Looking at where they are, it passes the randomness test for "choose 9 random people in the US" with two exceptions: Santa Clara is unlikely to have two by chance alone, and there's a bias toward cities.

By the way, the virus seeks out targets who spread conspiracy theories about it.

(https://i.pinimg.com/564x/d5/6b/81/d56b81ed08ef19e148dbdab599e34330.jpg)
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: ClassicHasClass on February 03, 2020, 12:14:07 AM
QuoteCoronavirus victims.

They certainly have higher risk of having been exposed -- hence the quarantine -- but none of the people (at least at the Riverside location) have nCoV so far, and the majority of the people who enter these other quarantines will probably not have it either.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:31:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.

Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:19:40 PM

Quote from: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM

The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.

That's what I was about to get to next, the cable news channels are obviously the worst offenders of this.

This just makes me even less worried about the coronavirus.  So many more people die from the flu than from the coronavirus, as I pointed out (and the news keeps pointing out too).  Well, if the coronavirus is so much more contagious than the flu, then that just means so-o-o-o so-o-o-o so-o-o-o SO-O-O-O many more people get the flu than get the cornoavirus to begin with.  Your chances are that much smaller of contracting the coronavirus than the comparative number of deaths makes it first appear.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 03, 2020, 01:34:51 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:31:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.

Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:19:40 PM

Quote from: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM

The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.

That's what I was about to get to next, the cable news channels are obviously the worst offenders of this.

This just makes me even less worried about the coronavirus.  So many more people die from the flu than from the coronavirus, as I pointed out (and the news keeps pointing out too).  Well, if the coronavirus is so much more contagious than the flu, then that just means so-o-o-o so-o-o-o so-o-o-o SO-O-O-O many more people get the flu than get the cornoavirus to begin with.  Your chances are that much smaller of contracting the coronavirus than the comparative number of deaths makes it first appear.
No shit, Sherlock.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US71 on February 03, 2020, 01:39:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:31:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.

Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:19:40 PM

Quote from: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM

The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.

That's what I was about to get to next, the cable news channels are obviously the worst offenders of this.

This just makes me even less worried about the coronavirus.  So many more people die from the flu than from the coronavirus, as I pointed out (and the news keeps pointing out too).  Well, if the coronavirus is so much more contagious than the flu, then that just means so-o-o-o so-o-o-o so-o-o-o SO-O-O-O many more people get the flu than get the cornoavirus to begin with.  Your chances are that much smaller of contracting the coronavirus than the comparative number of deaths makes it first appear.

FWIW, it's not a bad idea to take a few simple precautions. DON'T PANIC :P  :p ,  just take some minor precautions.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:50:33 PM
Quote from: US71 on February 03, 2020, 01:39:25 PM
FWIW, it's not a bad idea to take a few simple precautions. DON'T PANIC :P  :p ,  just take some minor precautions.

Like...  uh...  hmmmm... OK, I give up, what minor precautions should I take that everyone doesn't already suggest for preventing any illness?
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: hotdogPi on February 03, 2020, 01:51:03 PM
There are now two cases in the same spot of rural California. However, I would expect a contagion with 11 cases to be like this:

7 Los Angeles
4 Chicago
Nowhere else

Not this:

2 Los Angeles (in different parts of the metro area, so unrelated)
2 rural California, same spot
2 Santa Clara
2 Chicago
1 Boston
1 suburb of Phoenix
1 Seattle

This looks like random points on a map, although it's a bit less the case than before with the same rural area getting 2. Does anyone know if the locations with two known cases are people who travel together?

Also, "coronavirus" is a description, not the name of the virus. While it's okay for now (the terminology, not the virus itself!), it might cause confusion in the future if there's another outbreak caused by a completely different coronavirus.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:58:53 PM
Quote from: 1 on February 03, 2020, 01:51:03 PM
Also, "coronavirus" is a description, not the name of the virus. While it's okay for now (the terminology, not the virus itself!), it might cause confusion in the future if there's another outbreak caused by a completely different coronavirus.

That's true of the flu, too.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 03, 2020, 02:11:38 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:58:53 PM
Quote from: 1 on February 03, 2020, 01:51:03 PM
Also, "coronavirus" is a description, not the name of the virus. While it's okay for now (the terminology, not the virus itself!), it might cause confusion in the future if there's another outbreak caused by a completely different coronavirus.

That's true of the flu, too.
Best rhyme of the day IMO.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: adventurernumber1 on February 03, 2020, 02:33:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:31:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.

Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:19:40 PM

Quote from: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM

The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.

That's what I was about to get to next, the cable news channels are obviously the worst offenders of this.

This just makes me even less worried about the coronavirus.  So many more people die from the flu than from the coronavirus, as I pointed out (and the news keeps pointing out too).  Well, if the coronavirus is so much more contagious than the flu, then that just means so-o-o-o so-o-o-o so-o-o-o SO-O-O-O many more people get the flu than get the cornoavirus to begin with.  Your chances are that much smaller of contracting the coronavirus than the comparative number of deaths makes it first appear.

I think the point is that in the case you get the coronavirus, it statistically seems to be more deadly than the flu (proportionately, not in absolute numbers). As the outbreak is right now, obviously the chances of getting coronavirus are extraordinarily low. But the concern is the incredibly rapid spread of the virus, and if one gets the coronavirus, the prognosis sounds to be more deadly than that of the flu–but I think what is true in the case of both viruses is that most of the mortality is in elderly people who have weaker immune systems.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 03:34:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:31:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.
Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.
Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:19:40 PM
Quote from: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM
The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.
That's what I was about to get to next, the cable news channels are obviously the worst offenders of this.
This just makes me even less worried about the coronavirus.  So many more people die from the flu than from the coronavirus, as I pointed out (and the news keeps pointing out too).  Well, if the coronavirus is so much more contagious than the flu, then that just means so-o-o-o so-o-o-o so-o-o-o SO-O-O-O many more people get the flu than get the cornoavirus to begin with.  Your chances are that much smaller of contracting the coronavirus than the comparative number of deaths makes it first appear.

I'm not trying to make you worry about the coronavirus. I'm just saying, if you did come down with it, then you should be worried. Much more worried than if you came down with the flu.

So, basically:
Flu: high chance of catching, low chance of it being fatal.
Coronavirus: low chance of catching, high chance of it being fatal.

What's more worrisome?
Take your pick, but I'll go with the coronavirus. I'm confident enough in my ability to fight the flu.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 04:08:45 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 03:34:55 PM
What's more worrisome?

The one I actually have a statistically significant chance of contracting.

Your chance of surviving a gun shot to the head is even lower (5%), but I'm even less worried about getting shot in the head than I am of contracting the coronavirus–despite the fact that around 20,000 people in the USA die from a gun shot to the head every year.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: Rothman on February 03, 2020, 05:20:16 PM
Smith College has entered the scare as a student has claimed the possibility of being on the same flight as the UMass Boston student and now having symptoms.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 03, 2020, 05:27:27 PM
Quote from: Rothman on February 03, 2020, 05:20:16 PM
Smith College has entered the scare as a student has claimed the possibility of being on the same flight as the UMass Boston student and now having symptoms.
Yeah that wouldn't totally surprise me.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kalvado on February 03, 2020, 05:39:07 PM

Quote from: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 03:34:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 01:31:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on January 31, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
I was going to add in the numbers of cases of each to give some more context, but that information proved to not be a quick and easy find. Needless to say, it becomes more worrisome when you consider the ratio of cases to deaths.
Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.
Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 01, 2020, 09:19:40 PM
Quote from: US71 on February 01, 2020, 09:18:07 PM
The news seems to be playing it down saying the flu is worse.
That's what I was about to get to next, the cable news channels are obviously the worst offenders of this.
This just makes me even less worried about the coronavirus.  So many more people die from the flu than from the coronavirus, as I pointed out (and the news keeps pointing out too).  Well, if the coronavirus is so much more contagious than the flu, then that just means so-o-o-o so-o-o-o so-o-o-o SO-O-O-O many more people get the flu than get the cornoavirus to begin with.  Your chances are that much smaller of contracting the coronavirus than the comparative number of deaths makes it first appear.

I'm not trying to make you worry about the coronavirus. I'm just saying, if you did come down with it, then you should be worried. Much more worried than if you came down with the flu.

So, basically:
Flu: high chance of catching, low chance of it being fatal.
Coronavirus: low chance of catching, high chance of it being fatal.

What's more worrisome?
Take your pick, but I'll go with the coronavirus. I'm confident enough in my ability to fight the flu.
Problem is, coronavirus has a chance to spread - and a lot of current effort is on reducing the chance.
If it spreads, chances of getting infected can easily skyrocket...
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 03, 2020, 07:03:00 PM
https://www.ktvu.com/news/san-francisco-hospital-cares-for-two-coronavirus-patients


https://abc7news.com/health/san-francisco-hospital-caring-for-2-patients-with-coronavirus/5900896/


there are reports that a San Francisco area hospital is holding two patients who are reportedly victims of the Coronavirus.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 04:08:45 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 03:34:55 PM
What's more worrisome?
The one I actually have a statistically significant chance of contracting.
Your chance of surviving a gun shot to the head is even lower (5%), but I'm even less worried about getting shot in the head than I am of contracting the coronavirus–despite the fact that around 20,000 people in the USA die from a gun shot to the head every year.

Well, the problem with that comparison is that you have control over whether you shoot yourself in the head, but you don't have control over whether you contract the flu or coronavirus.

If I do get the flu, I know how to combat it - or at least can take some basic steps - because I and millions of others do it every year, and survive. Life goes on. I have no idea how to combat the coronavirus, by contrast, or how I'd even know I had it to begin with. That element of the unknown is another reason it's higher on the worrisome scale for me.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: vdeane on February 03, 2020, 08:25:05 PM
Yeah, seriously.  There are steps you can take to limit your chance of getting the flu.  The same is NOT true of coronavirus because of the fact that one is contagious for two weeks prior to showing symptoms.  To make matters worse, a LOT of people traveled freely before such was known.  There's really no way to know how widespread it is right now except to wait and see, and by that point it will have spread further.

That's what makes it so hard to judge coronavirus.  It could be a brief scare like SARS was.  Or it could be the next pandemic, our generation's Spanish Flu.  And there's no way to even guess for at least two weeks.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on February 03, 2020, 09:30:21 PM
Quote from: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
Well, the problem with that comparison is that you have control over whether you shoot yourself in the head,

I have much more limited control over whether someone else shoots me in the head.

Quote from: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
but you don't have control over whether you contract the flu or coronavirus.

Sure I do.  Washing my hands, not making out with people recently arrived from Wuhan, etc, etc.  Saying you don't have control over that is like saying you don't have control over whether you get the flu.  Of course you do.  Not absolute control, of course (short of staying in your house all day every day), but quite a bit of control.

Quote from: webny99 on February 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
If I do get the flu, I know how to combat it - or at least can take some basic steps - because I and millions of others do it every year, and survive. Life goes on. I have no idea how to combat the coronavirus, by contrast, or how I'd even know I had it to begin with. That element of the unknown is another reason it's higher on the worrisome scale for me.

There are all sorts of wacky diseases that I don't know how to control if I contract them, but that doesn't make me worry about them.  I wasn't freaking out about Ebola either.

Quote from: vdeane on February 03, 2020, 08:25:05 PM
Yeah, seriously.  There are steps you can take to limit your chance of getting the flu.  The same is NOT true of coronavirus because of the fact that one is contagious for two weeks prior to showing symptoms.

Influenza is contagious for about a week before symptoms show, too, dude.

Quote from: vdeane on February 03, 2020, 08:25:05 PM
To make matters worse, a LOT of people traveled freely before such was known.  There's really no way to know how widespread it is right now except to wait and see, and by that point it will have spread further.

It's been about a week and a half now for 2019-nCoV.  The first US case was confirmed on January 21.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 04, 2020, 10:54:59 AM
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/02/04/coronavirus-screening-misses-more-than-half-of-infected-patients-according-to-ucla-study/ (https://www.ocregister.com/2020/02/04/coronavirus-screening-misses-more-than-half-of-infected-patients-according-to-ucla-study/)




https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2020-02-04/first-us-coronavirus-patient-released-from-hospital (https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2020-02-04/first-us-coronavirus-patient-released-from-hospital)




Here is an update on Coronavirus. One patient was released at a Washington State hospital.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2020, 04:41:27 PM
The hospital is not a Washington State hospital, since WSU doesn't run hospitals.

The man from my county did indeed leave the hospital to be held in isolation at home, having mostly recovered. He does not wish to be in the public eye (for good reason, given the racist attacks against Asians caused by the coronavirus hysteria).

https://www.heraldnet.com/news/first-u-s-coronavirus-patient-released-from-everett-hospital/
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on February 04, 2020, 04:47:33 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 04, 2020, 10:54:59 AM
One patient was released at a Washington State hospital.

Quote from: Bruce on February 04, 2020, 04:41:27 PM
The hospital is not a Washington State hospital, since WSU doesn't run hospitals.

I think he just meant it wasn't Washington, DC.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 05, 2020, 03:19:45 PM
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article239991138.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article239991138.html)


https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/350-coronavirus-evacuees-land-Travis-Air-force-bas-15032013.php (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/350-coronavirus-evacuees-land-Travis-Air-force-bas-15032013.php)


https://www.kcra.com/article/evacuees-fleeing-coronavirus-travis-air-force-base-california/30777303# (https://www.kcra.com/article/evacuees-fleeing-coronavirus-travis-air-force-base-california/30777303#)


https://fox40.com/2020/02/04/evacuees-from-wuhan-to-land-at-travis-afb-wednesday/ (https://fox40.com/2020/02/04/evacuees-from-wuhan-to-land-at-travis-afb-wednesday/)


https://abc7.com/health/coronavirus-ca-base-to-house-more-china-evacuees/5904762/ (https://abc7.com/health/coronavirus-ca-base-to-house-more-china-evacuees/5904762/)


Update Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, CA is holding the Coronavirus Quaratine patients.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 05, 2020, 04:32:33 PM
https://fox5sandiego.com/news/flight-carrying-american-coronavirus-evacuees-arrives-at-mcas-miramar/ (https://fox5sandiego.com/news/flight-carrying-american-coronavirus-evacuees-arrives-at-mcas-miramar/)


https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/plane-carrying-us-citizens-from-china-arrives-at-mcas-miramar/509-87ee21f9-63bc-497f-a9cd-6448b07fa6bf (https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/plane-carrying-us-citizens-from-china-arrives-at-mcas-miramar/509-87ee21f9-63bc-497f-a9cd-6448b07fa6bf)


Update San Diego is also holding evacuees of Coronavirus.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 05, 2020, 04:49:36 PM
The CDC and Travis Air Force Base does a Press Conference


Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2020, 05:39:31 PM
The Washington state fire training academy (which has its own exit on I-90) will be a quarantine site for people coming back from Hubei Province but with no visible symptoms.

https://www.kuow.org/stories/fire-academy-near-seattle-picked-for-coronavirus-quarantine-site
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on February 05, 2020, 05:49:31 PM
I have major doubts about another Spanish Flu type epidemic ever happening (barring a major collapse of society) between much more advanced health systems and knowledge, plus no global scale conflict on the level of World War I that allowed that pandemic to grow, mutate, and spread.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: vdeane on February 05, 2020, 08:45:31 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on February 05, 2020, 05:49:31 PM
I have major doubts about another Spanish Flu type epidemic ever happening (barring a major collapse of society) between much more advanced health systems and knowledge, plus no global scale conflict on the level of World War I that allowed that pandemic to grow, mutate, and spread.
There are a few things to keep in mind, though:
-It's contagious before people have symptoms or its presence can be detected
-We have air travel, and while we're quarantining people from China, that doesn't mean anything if someone who was let in before we started doing that is contagious and doesn't know it.
-The Communist Party's first response to reports of the virus was not to take preventative measures but to pretend nothing was happening and punish anyone who said otherwise to anyone (even in private communications).  That allowed the virus to spread far, far more than it otherwise should have.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on February 06, 2020, 01:03:12 AM
Quote from: vdeane on February 05, 2020, 08:45:31 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on February 05, 2020, 05:49:31 PM
I have major doubts about another Spanish Flu type epidemic ever happening (barring a major collapse of society) between much more advanced health systems and knowledge, plus no global scale conflict on the level of World War I that allowed that pandemic to grow, mutate, and spread.
There are a few things to keep in mind, though:
-It's contagious before people have symptoms or its presence can be detected
-We have air travel, and while we're quarantining people from China, that doesn't mean anything if someone who was let in before we started doing that is contagious and doesn't know it.
-The Communist Party's first response to reports of the virus was not to take preventative measures but to pretend nothing was happening and punish anyone who said otherwise to anyone (even in private communications).  That allowed the virus to spread far, far more than it otherwise should have.

My point of contention is that exactly one person outside of China has died, and even the proportion of infections to deaths within China is about .02% (550/30000). I'm not saying this is a joke or something that should be dismissed, this is something that needs to be stopped. But we're a long way from 1918.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: hotdogPi on February 06, 2020, 07:38:58 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on February 06, 2020, 01:03:12 AM
.02% (550/30000)

That's 2%, not .02%.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 06, 2020, 08:25:57 AM
https://www.3newsnow.com/plane-carrying-passengers-from-wuhan-china-to-arrive-at-eppley-airfield
Update Eppley Field in Nebraska might take some of the evacuees from Wuhan for coronavirus screening
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: webny99 on February 06, 2020, 11:13:46 AM
Quote from: vdeane on February 05, 2020, 08:45:31 PM
-The Communist Party's first response to reports of the virus was not to take preventative measures but to pretend nothing was happening and punish anyone who said otherwise to anyone (even in private communications).  That allowed the virus to spread far, far more than it otherwise should have.

Uh, yeah, this just cannot be stated enough. We still really have no idea how bad it actually is, but with the Chinese New Year extended and factories keeping their doors closed for weeks, if not months, it's safe to say it's really bad. Think about the kind of sickness/disease/infection it would take to shut a US manufacturing hub down, and ours are doing nothing compared to what China is pumping out.
It's scary too that we may never know how bad it actually is over there, because the Communist Party's #1 priority is keeping the whole thing under wraps to save face. It's too bad, because what's the point? It's not like it's a secret that most/all viruses like this one originate from China.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kalvado on February 06, 2020, 11:22:21 AM
Quote from: webny99 on February 06, 2020, 11:13:46 AMThink about the kind of sickness/disease/infection it would take to shut a US manufacturing hub down, and ours are doing nothing compared to what China is pumping out.
6" of snow is all you need...
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 06, 2020, 02:20:05 PM
https://apnews.com/905489d29a3d4f8788f17a40003548a0


now a reports of a Whistle blower of the coronavirus to be in critical condition in china 



Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US71 on February 06, 2020, 05:49:53 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 06, 2020, 02:20:05 PM
https://apnews.com/905489d29a3d4f8788f17a40003548a0


now a reports of a Whistle blower of the coronavirus to be in critical condition in china 



He's dead, Jim

https://www.foxnews.com/health/doctor-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-dies
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: Rothman on February 06, 2020, 09:28:35 PM
I have friends in China.  It seems we're actually getting accurate news from there.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: thspfc on February 06, 2020, 10:21:34 PM
It's in my county now. Uh oh.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: nexus73 on February 06, 2020, 11:52:23 PM
On the TV news is a report that China's top laboratory for pathogens is 20 miles away from the meat market where the outbreak supposedly began.

Rick
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 07, 2020, 12:38:21 AM
Quote from: US71 on February 06, 2020, 05:49:53 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 06, 2020, 02:20:05 PM
https://apnews.com/905489d29a3d4f8788f17a40003548a0 (https://apnews.com/905489d29a3d4f8788f17a40003548a0)


now a reports of a Whistle blower of the coronavirus to be in critical condition in china 



He's dead, Jim

https://www.foxnews.com/health/doctor-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-dies (https://www.foxnews.com/health/doctor-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-dies)


Damn
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 07, 2020, 12:52:05 AM
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/evacuee-from-china-describes-life-under-quarantine-at-travis-afb/2228977/ (https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/evacuee-from-china-describes-life-under-quarantine-at-travis-afb/2228977/)


Now one of the evacuees has released a video on their time at Travis Air Force base so far.


https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/health/chinese-doctor-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-dies/2228596/ (https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/health/chinese-doctor-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-dies/2228596/)

Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 07, 2020, 10:42:18 AM

Here is more from Travis Air Force Base and Coronavirus quarantine updates.


Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: kphoger on February 07, 2020, 02:04:44 PM
Quote from: vdeane on February 05, 2020, 08:45:31 PM

Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on February 05, 2020, 05:49:31 PM
I have major doubts about another Spanish Flu type epidemic ever happening (barring a major collapse of society) between much more advanced health systems and knowledge, plus no global scale conflict on the level of World War I that allowed that pandemic to grow, mutate, and spread.

-It's contagious before people have symptoms or its presence can be detected

Isn't that also true of the flu?  I'm not certain about the "presence can be detected" part, but the flu is contagious for something like a week before symptoms develop.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 07, 2020, 06:23:09 PM
https://www.kens5.com/article/news/local/cdc-quarantined-travelers-projected-to-arrive-friday-morning/273-72540f5a-e8ab-4e9e-9f04-9e77ddb499cf (https://www.kens5.com/article/news/local/cdc-quarantined-travelers-projected-to-arrive-friday-morning/273-72540f5a-e8ab-4e9e-9f04-9e77ddb499cf)




https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/02/07/watch-live-plane-headed-to-jbsa-lackland-for-coronavirus-quarantine-refuels/ (https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/02/07/watch-live-plane-headed-to-jbsa-lackland-for-coronavirus-quarantine-refuels/)




https://www.3newsnow.com/news/local-news/u-s-evacuees-from-china-expected-to-arrive-in-omaha-friday (https://www.3newsnow.com/news/local-news/u-s-evacuees-from-china-expected-to-arrive-in-omaha-friday)




Now San Antonio will get the coronavirus evacuees.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 07, 2020, 08:44:47 PM
Here is an Update for the Travis Air Force base quarantine reports.


Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 07, 2020, 09:55:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on February 03, 2020, 01:51:03 PM
There are now two cases in the same spot of rural California. However, I would expect a contagion with 11 cases to be like this:

7 Los Angeles
4 Chicago
Nowhere else

Not this:

2 Los Angeles (in different parts of the metro area, so unrelated)
2 rural California, same spot
2 Santa Clara
2 Chicago
1 Boston
1 suburb of Phoenix
1 Seattle

This looks like random points on a map, although it's a bit less the case than before with the same rural area getting 2. Does anyone know if the locations with two known cases are people who travel together?

Also, "coronavirus" is a description, not the name of the virus. While it's okay for now (the terminology, not the virus itself!), it might cause confusion in the future if there's another outbreak caused by a completely different coronavirus.




https://www.kron4.com/news/five-people-quarantined-at-travis-afb-showing-symptoms-of-coronavirus-cases-not-confirmed/ (https://www.kron4.com/news/five-people-quarantined-at-travis-afb-showing-symptoms-of-coronavirus-cases-not-confirmed/)


Apparently there are rumors going around that 5 people in Fairfield, CA have gotten the Coronavirus but the CDC and hospitals around Fairfield, CA are still in the verification stage due to reports that 5 people gotten symptoms. Yes Fairfield, CA is one of these cities that might overtake the rest of the country for Coronavirus reports.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: ClassicHasClass on February 07, 2020, 11:38:25 PM
People should remember that the CDC's case definition is basically "flu + China." There's a lot of flu going around and many nCoV suspects are going to simply be that.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US71 on February 08, 2020, 09:47:58 AM
There appears to have been an American  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/08/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html) fatality in China from the virus
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 08, 2020, 04:18:55 PM
http://www.capradio.org/articles/2020/02/07/cdc-allowing-some-california-labs-to-test-for-coronavirus-in-hopes-of-speeding-up-detection/

Here is CDC role in the detection methods for Coronavirus.

http://www.capradio.org/news/npr/story/?storyid=803538409 (http://www.capradio.org/news/npr/story/?storyid=803538409)

Here is a Behind the scenes look at how some of the evacuees from Wuhan are facing at Travis AFB.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: bing101 on February 09, 2020, 06:41:40 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-updates/2020/02/09/eb9e683c-4aa4-11ea-8a1f-de1597be6cbc_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-updates/2020/02/09/eb9e683c-4aa4-11ea-8a1f-de1597be6cbc_story.html)


https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/utah-prepares-for-novel-coronavirus-to-arrive (https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/utah-prepares-for-novel-coronavirus-to-arrive)




Here are the Coronavirus updates as of today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 10, 2020, 01:44:14 PM
https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/5-us-evacuees-at-travis-afb-showing-coronavirus-symptoms-cdc/ (https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/5-us-evacuees-at-travis-afb-showing-coronavirus-symptoms-cdc/)




https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus-910-people-dead-more-than-40000-infected/ (https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus-910-people-dead-more-than-40000-infected/)




Now there are 910 people reported dead by the Coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 10, 2020, 01:46:27 PM
Here is more on Coronavirus reports.


Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 10, 2020, 10:20:17 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-infections-symptoms-transmission-wuhan-china-cruise-ship-quarantine-cases-hong-kong (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-infections-symptoms-transmission-wuhan-china-cruise-ship-quarantine-cases-hong-kong)


1000 deaths reported in China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 12, 2020, 09:15:36 PM
https://wreg.com/news/no-coronavirus-outbreak-in-mid-south-health-officials-say-but-20-under-monitoring/ (https://wreg.com/news/no-coronavirus-outbreak-in-mid-south-health-officials-say-but-20-under-monitoring/)


Update there are rumors that 20 people in Tennessee have the Coronavirus but if you go mid article they are saying Under Investigation.


https://www.kcra.com/article/wuhan-evacuees-travis-afb-test-negative-coronavirus/30894408 (https://www.kcra.com/article/wuhan-evacuees-travis-afb-test-negative-coronavirus/30894408)


https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/5-us-evacuees-quarantined-at-travis-afb-test-negative-for-coronavirus/ (https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/5-us-evacuees-quarantined-at-travis-afb-test-negative-for-coronavirus/)


Update 5 people at Travis Air Force base are tested negative for Coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 13, 2020, 08:49:15 PM
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/13/coronavirus-texas-case-confirmed-san-antonio-cdc-says/


Now a coronavirus scare is reported in Texas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 15, 2020, 11:20:25 AM
https://ktla.com/2020/02/15/americans-on-quarantined-ship-in-japan-to-be-flown-to-travis-air-force-base-in-norcal/ (https://ktla.com/2020/02/15/americans-on-quarantined-ship-in-japan-to-be-flown-to-travis-air-force-base-in-norcal/)




https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/02/15/travis-air-force-base-prepares-coronavirus-airlift-of-diamond-princess-passengers/




https://www.kcra.com/article/more-evacuees-due-to-coronavirus-expected-at-travis-afb/30938452#




Now passengers from a quarantined ship in Japan will be sent to Travis Air Force base for further verification over N-Cov.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 17, 2020, 09:46:02 PM
https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/trading-quarantines-americans-from-cruise-land-in-us/ (https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/trading-quarantines-americans-from-cruise-land-in-us/)




https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/couple-from-japan-later-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-took-delta-airlines-flight/ (https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/couple-from-japan-later-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-took-delta-airlines-flight/)




https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/hawaii-couple-to-be-released-from-quarantined-cruise-ship-along-with-hundreds-of-americans/




Here is the Coronavirus Roundup for today
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kphoger on February 18, 2020, 01:20:54 PM
Yesterday in the news, it was proclaimed that there were 6 confirmed cases of this coronavirus here.  One article even went into detail about who the first person was, and my co-worker saw a blurb with reporters outside a hospital in Omaha (not in Kansas??).

Today in the news, it was proclaimed:
"We've been getting messages about a story claiming there are six confirmed cases of Wuhan coronavirus in Wichita.  It's NOT TRUE.  Kansas currently has NO confirmed cases."
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 18, 2020, 02:08:04 PM
https://www.ketv.com/article/potential-coronavirus-patients-quarantined-on-cruise-ship-brought-to-omaha-diamond-princess/30963793 (https://www.ketv.com/article/potential-coronavirus-patients-quarantined-on-cruise-ship-brought-to-omaha-diamond-princess/30963793)

https://www.wowt.com/content/news/Two-more-possible-quarantined-flights-land-at-Omaha-airport-567941511.html (https://www.wowt.com/content/news/Two-more-possible-quarantined-flights-land-at-Omaha-airport-567941511.html)

Nebraska is taking some of the Coronavirus patients for quarantine in this report
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on February 18, 2020, 03:39:01 PM
Quote from: kphoger on February 18, 2020, 01:20:54 PM
Yesterday in the news, it was proclaimed that there were 6 confirmed cases of this coronavirus here.  One article even went into detail about who the first person was, and my co-worker saw a blurb with reporters outside a hospital in Omaha (not in Kansas??).

Today in the news, it was proclaimed:
"We've been getting messages about a story claiming there are six confirmed cases of Wuhan coronavirus in Wichita.  It's NOT TRUE.  Kansas currently has NO confirmed cases."
There are risk assessment procedures, which dictate how patients are treated. Those with significant infection probability are isolated first, tested afterward.
I wouldn't be surprised if this was a non-coronavirus cold coupled with some red flags - which triggered full response even before test samples were collected.
Since medical aspects of situation are private and confidential, bystanders don't know anything for sure.
I can easily see erroneous reports coming out in a situation like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 18, 2020, 05:38:07 PM
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/18/806985225/coronavirus-updates-hospital-director-in-wuhan-dies-of-covid-19 (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/18/806985225/coronavirus-updates-hospital-director-in-wuhan-dies-of-covid-19)


https://www.kcra.com/article/wuhan-evacuees-travis-afb-being-released/30981813# (https://www.kcra.com/article/wuhan-evacuees-travis-afb-being-released/30981813#)


https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/first-group-of-coronavirus-evacuees-at-travis-afb-set-for-release/2236033/ (https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/first-group-of-coronavirus-evacuees-at-travis-afb-set-for-release/2236033/)


Update some of the victims have been released from Quarantine at Travis Air Force Base in Solano County, CA
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on February 18, 2020, 05:48:14 PM
That quarantined cruise ship was reported to have 500 known cases.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4788804002
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 20, 2020, 02:03:13 PM
https://napavalleyregister.com/news/local/napa-s-queen-of-the-valley-treats-coronavirus-patient-transferred/article_e85a7030-61d1-581e-b943-b4b4754c8d61.html

https://fox40.com/news/local-news/cdc-cruise-ship-passengers-test-positive-for-covid-19-at-travis-afb/

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/17/coronavirus-14-infected-americans-arrived-at-travis-afb/

19 people reportedly have been tested positive for Covid-19 at Travis Air Force Base.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 20, 2020, 11:42:14 PM
https://www.ketv.com/article/11-people-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-unmc/31029795# (https://www.ketv.com/article/11-people-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-unmc/31029795#)




https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/20/coronavirus-quarantine-san-antonio/ (https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/20/coronavirus-quarantine-san-antonio/)




https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/irving-newlyweds-back-in-us-quarantined-at-lackland-air-force-base/2313512/ (https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/irving-newlyweds-back-in-us-quarantined-at-lackland-air-force-base/2313512/)




Here are more in the Coronavirus Roundup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 21, 2020, 01:03:36 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-idUSKBN20F01P (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-idUSKBN20F01P)


https://abcnews.go.com/International/hundreds-chinese-inmates-infected-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads-prisons/story?id=69120484 (https://abcnews.go.com/International/hundreds-chinese-inmates-infected-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads-prisons/story?id=69120484)


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51591091

Here is an update for the fallout in China over Coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 23, 2020, 11:08:36 PM
https://ktla.com/2020/02/23/covid-19-cases-soar-in-italy-as-authorities-scramble-to-find-patient-zero/ (https://ktla.com/2020/02/23/covid-19-cases-soar-in-italy-as-authorities-scramble-to-find-patient-zero/)


A COVID-19 scare is reported in Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 27, 2020, 07:28:26 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-iran-toll/irans-death-toll-from-coronavirus-reaches-26-health-ministry-idUSKCN20L1E5



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/governments-ramp-up-preparations-for-coronavirus-pandemic-idUSKCN20L0AF (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/governments-ramp-up-preparations-for-coronavirus-pandemic-idUSKCN20L0AF)


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-italy-death/two-more-people-die-from-coronavirus-in-italy-civil-protection-agency-idUSKCN20L1NC



Update there are 26 deaths reported in Iran due to COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 08:18:44 AM
Anyone else remember when everyone in the news was freaking out about; SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Anthrax, etc?  I get it that this is a big deal in China but everyone acts like the zombie apocalypse is upon us every time one of these diseases rolls around every couple years.  South Park more or less nailed it almost two decades ago with the SARS scare:

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on February 27, 2020, 08:24:42 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 08:18:44 AM
Anyone else remember when everyone in the news was freaking out about; SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Anthrax, etc?  I get it that this is a big deal in China but everyone acts like the zombie apocalypse is upon us every time one of these diseases rolls around every couple years.  South Park more or less nailed it almost two decades ago with the SARS scare:



I thought the same thing at first, comparing it to the Ebola scare. (The 2009 swine flu actually was a big deal.) However, COVID-19 seems to be spreading to other countries, so this one is important.




I'm not going to do it, but I thought about making a Wikipedia article about a certain person's misspelling of "coronavirus" in a tweet:

"Caronavirus is a computer virus that infects the central servers of the stock market, causing the stock market to go down. It is not to be confused with coronavirus, although it is named after it."
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 08:28:24 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 08:18:44 AM
Anyone else remember when everyone in the news was freaking out about; SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Anthrax, etc?  I get it that this is a big deal in China but everyone acts like the zombie apocalypse is upon us every time one of these diseases rolls around every couple years.  South Park more or less nailed it almost two decades ago with the SARS scare:
This may be the most serious one lately. It definitely overdid SARS, and containment is much less successful so far. People expect an outbreak in Japan, among other things, and that can easily affect Tokyo Olympics, for example.
Not the end of the world, but may be more noticable than most of your examples.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on February 27, 2020, 09:14:19 AM
Just to put the hype in perspective: About as many people have died from the flu compared to Coronavirus, and many more people have been sickened by it. 

But, Coronavirus is this year's hot-topic, so it will be in the news for a while, and have people freaking out.  I'm sure hospitals and doctor offices have been inundated with people believing they have this latest and greatest illness, only to find out they have, to use complicated medical terminology: "nothing".
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding media sensation with the Coronavirus.  The only place I heard it even discussed in Mexico during two weeks was when I (along with my family) were asked if we had been to China in the last 14 days.  I kind of notice once you get away from the U.S. and to a lesser extent Canada media sensationalism tends to die down fast. 

Interestingly the City of San Francisco declared a state of emergency but I don't think that there has even been a confirmed case of Coronavirus there?  I was telling my wife we should probably go for a visit since that declaration probably will turn off a lot of tourism and drive hotel prices down. 

Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 10:08:56 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about.
If you will, epidemiologists being on a constant watch is a important part of it. While not global, local outbreaks do happen, and can be pretty nasty. What we see, IMHO,  is just professional "panic" of those who know how quickly things can go wrong and trying to get them right - something general public doesn't really remember.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: nexus73 on February 27, 2020, 10:10:54 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding media sensation with the Coronavirus.  The only place I heard it even discussed in Mexico during two weeks was when I (along with my family) were asked if we had been to China in the last 14 days.  I kind of notice once you get away from the U.S. and to a lesser extent Canada media sensationalism tends to die down fast. 

Interestingly the City of San Francisco declared a state of emergency but I don't think that there has even been a confirmed case of Coronavirus there?  I was telling my wife we should probably go for a visit since that declaration probably will turn off a lot of tourism and drive hotel prices down. 

Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about. 

California has reported a case in NorCal.  What city this is was not mentioned.

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mapmikey on February 27, 2020, 10:18:19 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on February 27, 2020, 09:14:19 AM
Just to put the hype in perspective: About as many people have died from the flu compared to Coronavirus, and many more people have been sickened by it. 

But, Coronavirus is this year's hot-topic, so it will be in the news for a while, and have people freaking out.  I'm sure hospitals and doctor offices have been inundated with people believing they have this latest and greatest illness, only to find out they have, to use complicated medical terminology: "nothing".

In terms of raw numbers this is currently true. 

However, the fatality rate is in the range of 20-80 times higher for Corona (depends on how you define death rate - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) so if everyone allowed it to take its course naturally the number of deaths are potentially 20-80 times higher than the flu (16,000-41,000 in this flu season for the U.S. alone source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm ) for a potential range of 320,000-820,000 deaths (for 20x).

For comparison the Asian Flu of 1957-58 killed 110,000 Americans.

Once a vaccine is developed I assume the draconian quarantine measures could revert to general flu precautions for future outbreaks of this strain. 

It really comes down to this (as it does for many things): what level of lethality are we comfortable with before disrupting daily life significantly for many people.  Things like the flu and driving kill tens of thousands a year here and while we have things (vaccines, more safety features in cars and in road design) to try to reduce these, we don't do things that would severely impact most people's lives (Coronavirus level quarantines or outlawing cars/reducing max possible speeds to 10 mph, etc.)

Just one man's opinion...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
^^^

I want to say it's either Salono County or Humboldt County. 

Quote from: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 10:08:56 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about.
If you will, epidemiologists being on a constant watch is a important part of it. While not global, local outbreaks do happen, and can be pretty nasty. What we see, IMHO,  is just professional "panic" of those who know how quickly things can go wrong and trying to get them right - something general public doesn't really remember.

I've kind of found that they tend to be the more rational when these outbreaks happen.  Most of the public concern seems to be coming from either media sources or public media officials making declarations or public announcements.  I even had to read an issued statement at work, all it did was get people spun up over nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on February 27, 2020, 10:40:11 AM
Quote from: bing101 on February 23, 2020, 11:08:36 PM
https://ktla.com/2020/02/23/covid-19-cases-soar-in-italy-as-authorities-scramble-to-find-patient-zero/ (https://ktla.com/2020/02/23/covid-19-cases-soar-in-italy-as-authorities-scramble-to-find-patient-zero/)


A COVID-19 scare is reported in Italy.

There was a scare in Maumelle, Arkansas which turned out to be someone trying to get out of court.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on February 27, 2020, 11:01:52 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
....

Interestingly the City of San Francisco declared a state of emergency but I don't think that there has even been a confirmed case of Coronavirus there?  I was telling my wife we should probably go for a visit since that declaration probably will turn off a lot of tourism and drive hotel prices down. 

....

Does San Francisco have a large Chinese community? If so, maybe that's the reason for it–more or less assuming that travel to and from China will pose a high risk there. I could see the same occurring in Vancouver for the same reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 11:06:07 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
^^^

I want to say it's either Salono County or Humboldt County. 

Quote from: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 10:08:56 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about.
If you will, epidemiologists being on a constant watch is a important part of it. While not global, local outbreaks do happen, and can be pretty nasty. What we see, IMHO,  is just professional "panic" of those who know how quickly things can go wrong and trying to get them right - something general public doesn't really remember.

I've kind of found that they tend to be the more rational when these outbreaks happen.  Most of the public concern seems to be coming from either media sources or public media officials making declarations or public announcements.  I even had to read an issued statement at work, all it did was get people spun up over nothing.
They are more rational - but often large-scale actions are requested. Think weeks in quarantines here or mandatory immunizations in other cases.
While this can be just another day at work for professionals, there is definitely a need to justify those unusual things for general public support. Unfortunately, people do get agitated as a result.
Title: Re: First U.S. case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed
Post by: US 89 on February 27, 2020, 11:08:44 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on February 27, 2020, 09:14:19 AM
Just to put the hype in perspective: About as many people have died from the flu compared to Coronavirus, and many more people have been sickened by it. 

But, Coronavirus is this year's hot-topic, so it will be in the news for a while, and have people freaking out.  I'm sure hospitals and doctor offices have been inundated with people believing they have this latest and greatest illness, only to find out they have, to use complicated medical terminology: "nothing".

See my post a few pages up for why it's a big deal:

Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

That 2.2% figure appears to still be valid a month later. Worth noting that although it's less deadly than other similar diseases like SARS or MERS, this actually makes it more dangerous because it's more likely to be spread around - this is also part of why the flu is more common and has killed more people than the new coronavirus has. With something like SARS or MERS you'd probably die before you could give it to many other people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 11:44:53 AM
Quote from: US 89 on February 27, 2020, 11:08:44 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on February 27, 2020, 09:14:19 AM
Just to put the hype in perspective: About as many people have died from the flu compared to Coronavirus, and many more people have been sickened by it. 

But, Coronavirus is this year's hot-topic, so it will be in the news for a while, and have people freaking out.  I'm sure hospitals and doctor offices have been inundated with people believing they have this latest and greatest illness, only to find out they have, to use complicated medical terminology: "nothing".

See my post a few pages up for why it's a big deal:

Quote from: US 89 on February 01, 2020, 04:58:21 PM
According to the CDC's calculations, the mortality rate for influenza is 0.13%, or around 1 in 769 people. A 2.2% death rate means on average, 1 out of every 45 people who get coronavirus die from it. The reason more people have died from influenza is that far more people get it in the first place.

Put it this way: if those numbers are right, the coronavirus is 17 times deadlier than the flu.

That 2.2% figure appears to still be valid a month later. Worth noting that although it's less deadly than other similar diseases like SARS or MERS, this actually makes it more dangerous because it's more likely to be spread around - this is also part of why the flu is more common and has killed more people than the new coronavirus has. With something like SARS or MERS you'd probably die before you could give it to many other people.
Some people questioning death percentage as asymptomatic or light cases may not be counted; that would drive actual death rate lower than reported numbers.
Some people (a different group, though) believes that China underreported death rate. Even from the bare reported numbers, China has 3.5% death rate, at it will likely increase as there are still many  people in serious or critical condition as new cases go down.
One thing for sure - at the peak of it, healthcare system in Wuhan was running multifold over capacity.  Not sure how that would work elsewhere, especially in country-wide epidemics when no spare capacity or supplies are  available elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on February 27, 2020, 12:15:18 PM
And that's an important possible stat. Many people will like to say that many people that have died may not have been counted. But likewise, many people that contracted the illness, didn't get diagnosed and didn't die could have just as likely not been counted as well.

It's important to note that if it's true the death rate is higher, it's possible that not as many people even get the illness in the first place, which is a very important statistic. If we wanted to look at worst case scenarios, would you rather have 30 million get sick and 1 million die, or 2 million get sick and 500,000 die?  The death rate is higher for the second possibility, even though overall it's the better outcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: nexus73 on February 27, 2020, 01:12:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
^^^

I want to say it’s either Salono County or Humboldt County. 

Quote from: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 10:08:56 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I’m forgetting about.
If you will, epidemiologists being on a constant watch is a important part of it. While not global, local outbreaks do happen, and can be pretty nasty. What we see, IMHO,  is just professional "panic" of those who know how quickly things can go wrong and trying to get them right - something general public doesn't really remember.

I’ve kind of found that they tend to be the more rational when these outbreaks happen.  Most of the public concern seems to be coming from either media sources or public media officials making declarations or public announcements.  I even had to read an issued statement at work, all it did was get people spun up over nothing.

Just heard on the news that the coronavirus victim is in Solano County.  They are being treated at UC-Davis.  This person has not been outside the USA recently.  How did they get the virus?  Unknown at this time.

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 27, 2020, 03:01:37 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on February 27, 2020, 01:12:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
^^^

I want to say it's either Salono County or Humboldt County. 

Quote from: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 10:08:56 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about.
If you will, epidemiologists being on a constant watch is a important part of it. While not global, local outbreaks do happen, and can be pretty nasty. What we see, IMHO,  is just professional "panic" of those who know how quickly things can go wrong and trying to get them right - something general public doesn't really remember.

I've kind of found that they tend to be the more rational when these outbreaks happen.  Most of the public concern seems to be coming from either media sources or public media officials making declarations or public announcements.  I even had to read an issued statement at work, all it did was get people spun up over nothing.

Just heard on the news that the coronavirus victim is in Solano County.  They are being treated at UC-Davis.  This person has not been outside the USA recently.  How did they get the virus?  Unknown at this time.

Rick




Solano County, CA was expected to get hit by Coronavirus due to Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, CA have been the lead quarantine facility of COVID-19 in the USA. 


https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240604346.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240604346.html)


https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-patients-Travis-AFB-must-move-15079843.php (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-patients-Travis-AFB-must-move-15079843.php)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240688726.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240688726.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on February 27, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
We really shouldn't downplay the spread of COVID-19, which has a much higher fatality rate than the normal flu (around 2%) and seems to spread quite fast. Japan and South Korea have both started their own quarantines to try and contain the spread, Italy has its outbreak, and there's only so much we can learn out of China. Even the "underreported" figures are quite significant, and it's also having an impact on the world economy as more and more man-hours are lost in China.

That being said, the media hype is causing its own problems. Locally, there's been an uptick in anti-Asian racism, including harassment that I have experienced myself on the street.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 27, 2020, 03:21:46 PM
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/27/suspected-covid-19-patient-in-semarang-died-of-swine-flu-minister.html (https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/27/suspected-covid-19-patient-in-semarang-died-of-swine-flu-minister.html)


Now there is a report in Indonesia that a person died of H1N1 Flu while the hospital was investigating the patient of COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 03:39:39 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 27, 2020, 03:01:37 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on February 27, 2020, 01:12:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
^^^

I want to say it's either Salono County or Humboldt County. 

Quote from: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 10:08:56 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about.
If you will, epidemiologists being on a constant watch is a important part of it. While not global, local outbreaks do happen, and can be pretty nasty. What we see, IMHO,  is just professional "panic" of those who know how quickly things can go wrong and trying to get them right - something general public doesn't really remember.

I've kind of found that they tend to be the more rational when these outbreaks happen.  Most of the public concern seems to be coming from either media sources or public media officials making declarations or public announcements.  I even had to read an issued statement at work, all it did was get people spun up over nothing.

Just heard on the news that the coronavirus victim is in Solano County.  They are being treated at UC-Davis.  This person has not been outside the USA recently.  How did they get the virus?  Unknown at this time.

Rick




Solano County, CA was expected to get hit by Coronavirus due to Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, CA have been the lead quarantine facility of COVID-19 in the USA. 


https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240604346.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240604346.html)


https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-patients-Travis-AFB-must-move-15079843.php (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-patients-Travis-AFB-must-move-15079843.php)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240688726.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240688726.html)

Well there goes easy lodging at Travis AFB for awhile...   I'll have to ask my Wife's Cousin how things are over there with the quarantine procedures. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 27, 2020, 06:28:48 PM
Quote from: Bruce on February 27, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
We really shouldn't downplay the spread of COVID-19, which has a much higher fatality rate than the normal flu (around 2%) and seems to spread quite fast. Japan and South Korea have both started their own quarantines to try and contain the spread, Italy has its outbreak, and there's only so much we can learn out of China. Even the "underreported" figures are quite significant, and it's also having an impact on the world economy as more and more man-hours are lost in China.

That being said, the media hype is causing its own problems. Locally, there's been an uptick in anti-Asian racism, including harassment that I have experienced myself on the street.
That racism towards Asians and Asian-Americans (myself included–my mother and her family are from Taichung, Taiwan) really is disgusting when you get down to the nitty-gritty. I keep telling this to my friends that I have talked to on FB and whatnot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on February 27, 2020, 06:53:28 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 27, 2020, 06:28:48 PM
Quote from: Bruce on February 27, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
We really shouldn't downplay the spread of COVID-19, which has a much higher fatality rate than the normal flu (around 2%) and seems to spread quite fast. Japan and South Korea have both started their own quarantines to try and contain the spread, Italy has its outbreak, and there's only so much we can learn out of China. Even the "underreported" figures are quite significant, and it's also having an impact on the world economy as more and more man-hours are lost in China.

That being said, the media hype is causing its own problems. Locally, there's been an uptick in anti-Asian racism, including harassment that I have experienced myself on the street.
That racism towards Asians and Asian-Americans (myself included–my mother and her family are from Taichung, Taiwan) really is disgusting when you get down to the nitty-gritty. I keep telling this to my friends that I have talked to on FB and whatnot.

My grandmother was from Guatemala. she put up with a lot of crap when she came to the states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on February 27, 2020, 08:29:31 PM
Quote from: US71 on February 27, 2020, 06:53:28 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 27, 2020, 06:28:48 PM
Quote from: Bruce on February 27, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
We really shouldn't downplay the spread of COVID-19, which has a much higher fatality rate than the normal flu (around 2%) and seems to spread quite fast. Japan and South Korea have both started their own quarantines to try and contain the spread, Italy has its outbreak, and there's only so much we can learn out of China. Even the "underreported" figures are quite significant, and it's also having an impact on the world economy as more and more man-hours are lost in China.

That being said, the media hype is causing its own problems. Locally, there's been an uptick in anti-Asian racism, including harassment that I have experienced myself on the street.
That racism towards Asians and Asian-Americans (myself included–my mother and her family are from Taichung, Taiwan) really is disgusting when you get down to the nitty-gritty. I keep telling this to my friends that I have talked to on FB and whatnot.

My grandmother was from Guatemala. she put up with a lot of crap when she came to the states.
I'm sorry to hear that, David. But alas not terribly surprising at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 27, 2020, 09:47:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 03:39:39 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 27, 2020, 03:01:37 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on February 27, 2020, 01:12:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
^^^

I want to say it's either Salono County or Humboldt County. 

Quote from: kalvado on February 27, 2020, 10:08:56 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about.

If you will, epidemiologists being on a constant watch is a important part of it. While not global, local outbreaks do happen, and can be pretty nasty. What we see, IMHO,  is just professional "panic" of those who know how quickly things can go wrong and trying to get them right - something general public doesn't really remember.


I've kind of found that they tend to be the more rational when these outbreaks happen.  Most of the public concern seems to be coming from either media sources or public media officials making declarations or public announcements.  I even had to read an issued statement at work, all it did was get people spun up over nothing.


Just heard on the news that the coronavirus victim is in Solano County.  They are being treated at UC-Davis.  This person has not been outside the USA recently.  How did they get the virus?  Unknown at this time.

Rick





Solano County, CA was expected to get hit by Coronavirus due to Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, CA have been the lead quarantine facility of COVID-19 in the USA. 


https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240604346.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240604346.html)


https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-patients-Travis-AFB-must-move-15079843.php (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-patients-Travis-AFB-must-move-15079843.php)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240688726.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240688726.html)


Well there goes easy lodging at Travis AFB for awhile...   I'll have to ask my Wife's Cousin how things are over there with the quarantine procedures.

I live in the area and we are told to "take precautions" according to the CDC. As far as I know I can easily understand why Solano County was specifically chosen as the lead quarantine area it was to avoid creating a panic in the more prominent tourist areas, or areas where investment groups are most likely to be located or an area where Lobbyists and campaign offices are most likely to be located. If the CDC announced that San Francisco, Los Angeles and Sacramento are quarantine areas the rest of the country would panic right away though.




https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/infographic-cdc-protects-508.pdf (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/infographic-cdc-protects-508.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 27, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 27, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Regarding media sensation with the Coronavirus.  The only place I heard it even discussed in Mexico during two weeks was when I (along with my family) were asked if we had been to China in the last 14 days.  I kind of notice once you get away from the U.S. and to a lesser extent Canada media sensationalism tends to die down fast. 

Interestingly the City of San Francisco declared a state of emergency but I don't think that there has even been a confirmed case of Coronavirus there?  I was telling my wife we should probably go for a visit since that declaration probably will turn off a lot of tourism and drive hotel prices down. 

Regarding impactful infections on the global scale when was the last truly big one?  I want to say it was the Spanish Flu (ironically which is also what Swine Flu was) but there might be some Mid-20th Century examples that I'm forgetting about.





https://fox40.com/news/california-connection/solano-county-declares-emergency-following-possible-community-spread-virus-case/ (https://fox40.com/news/california-connection/solano-county-declares-emergency-following-possible-community-spread-virus-case/)




https://www.dailyrepublic.com/all-dr-news/solano-news/fairfield/solano-county-declares-local-emergency-over-coronavirus/ (https://www.dailyrepublic.com/all-dr-news/solano-news/fairfield/solano-county-declares-local-emergency-over-coronavirus/)


Apparently Solano County, CA just declared county state of emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 28, 2020, 10:37:19 PM
https://www.thereporter.com/2020/02/28/second-solano-coronavirus-case-confirmed-third-pending-confirmation/




https://abc7news.com/health/additional-novel-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-bay-area-officials-say-/5974170/




Yes this was expected more people in Solano County reported to have coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 28, 2020, 11:04:18 PM
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/norcal-health-officials-search-for-others-exposed-to-coronavirus-patient/ (https://ktla.com/news/local-news/norcal-health-officials-search-for-others-exposed-to-coronavirus-patient/)


https://ktla.com/news/elementary-school-employee-becomes-oregons-1st-novel-coronavirus-case/ (https://ktla.com/news/elementary-school-employee-becomes-oregons-1st-novel-coronavirus-case/)




https://ktla.com/news/local-news/south-korean-flight-attendant-with-covid-19-who-visited-l-a-posed-no-risk-to-others-health-officials/ (https://ktla.com/news/local-news/south-korean-flight-attendant-with-covid-19-who-visited-l-a-posed-no-risk-to-others-health-officials/)




San Jose, Oregon and Los Angeles are now reporting Coronavirus scares.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 01:05:33 AM
https://q13fox.com/2020/02/28/2-new-presumed-cases-of-coronavirus-in-washington-snohomish-co-high-school-student-and-king-co-woman/ (https://q13fox.com/2020/02/28/2-new-presumed-cases-of-coronavirus-in-washington-snohomish-co-high-school-student-and-king-co-woman/)


Update there are reports of a Coronavirus scare in the Seattle area and thats under investigation with the CDC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Big John on February 29, 2020, 01:20:12 PM
First US death reported in Washington state.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on February 29, 2020, 02:36:57 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.
FMLA prohibits such draconian policy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 02:57:40 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on February 29, 2020, 02:36:57 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.
FMLA prohibits such draconian policy.

Yes, but it doesn't exactly stop a lot of employers from getting pushy with sick absence policies.  For close to 20 years I've gotten crap almost every single time I've called out maybe 1-3 times a year...and I've been salary for most of it.  You can tie a lot of that mindset back to somehow the American mentality is that more work means better work. 

Case and point, our sick usage policy dropped from 6% to 3% annually recently.  Everyone who exceeds that 3% usage is supposed to either provide doctor's notes or received a "documented"  verbal (which means it's written IMO) warning.  Personally I'm pretty lax with allowing sick usage because with how close my people work in closed offices and vehicles it tends to spread germs fast.  I had to talk one of my investigators into using some of her hundreds of sick hours a couple years back because she had an obvious flu.  I guess she thought I was going to be mad if she called out, I was more upset she came in sick. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on February 29, 2020, 03:23:24 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on February 29, 2020, 02:36:57 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.
FMLA prohibits such draconian policy.

FMLA has nothing to do with staying home to *prevent* getting sick, and many jobs have reasons to show up in the office, even occasionally.

But, even if you could stay home, most people would find dozens of reasons to go out: Grocery shopping would be one majorly cited reason. I often think that when people are told to stay home, it's almost like they take that as a challenge, and would find any reason to go out!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 04:50:12 PM
Here is a Press Conference from Washington State.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/coronavirus-outbreak-bigger-latest-updates-200228232914773.html (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/coronavirus-outbreak-bigger-latest-updates-200228232914773.html)



205 people in Iran and 1000 in Italy are reported to have COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: nexus73 on February 29, 2020, 05:57:04 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 02:57:40 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on February 29, 2020, 02:36:57 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.
FMLA prohibits such draconian policy.

Yes, but it doesn’t exactly stop a lot of employers from getting pushy with sick absence policies.  For close to 20 years I’ve gotten crap almost every single time I’ve called out maybe 1-3 times a year...and I’ve been salary for most of it.  You can tie a lot of that mindset back to somehow the American mentality is that more work means better work. 

Case and point, our sick usage policy dropped from 6% to 3% annually recently.  Everyone who exceeds that 3% usage is supposed to either provide doctor’s notes or received a “documented” verbal (which means it’s written IMO) warning.  Personally I’m pretty lax with allowing sick usage because with how close my people work in closed offices and vehicles it tends to spread germs fast.  I had to talk one of my investigators into using some of her hundreds of sick hours a couple years back because she had an obvious flu.  I guess she thought I was going to be mad if she called out, I was more upset she came in sick. 

Good on you!  When my father owned a gas station in the mid 60's, he got a bad cold but kept right on working.  He wound up with double pneumonia and down for a month.  Sometimes the individual pushes themselves too hard instead of the management, although in this case, my father was the top, bottom and middle guy...LOL!  Luckily we had many extended family members around so the gas station stayed open until he recovered.  My father's only vacations were not really vacations.  They came due to illness or surgery. 

May you stay safe during this pandemic Max.

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:06:59 PM
https://www.khon2.com/top-stories/hawaii-tests-first-possible-covid-19-case-lawmakers-plan-for-economic-impact/ (https://www.khon2.com/top-stories/hawaii-tests-first-possible-covid-19-case-lawmakers-plan-for-economic-impact/)

Update there is a reported COVID-19 case reported in Hawaii.  Note preliminary tests show COVID-19 negative for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:32:45 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on February 29, 2020, 05:57:04 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 02:57:40 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on February 29, 2020, 02:36:57 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.
FMLA prohibits such draconian policy.

Yes, but it doesn't exactly stop a lot of employers from getting pushy with sick absence policies.  For close to 20 years I've gotten crap almost every single time I've called out maybe 1-3 times a year...and I've been salary for most of it.  You can tie a lot of that mindset back to somehow the American mentality is that more work means better work. 

Case and point, our sick usage policy dropped from 6% to 3% annually recently.  Everyone who exceeds that 3% usage is supposed to either provide doctor's notes or received a "documented"  verbal (which means it's written IMO) warning.  Personally I'm pretty lax with allowing sick usage because with how close my people work in closed offices and vehicles it tends to spread germs fast.  I had to talk one of my investigators into using some of her hundreds of sick hours a couple years back because she had an obvious flu.  I guess she thought I was going to be mad if she called out, I was more upset she came in sick. 

Good on you!  When my father owned a gas station in the mid 60's, he got a bad cold but kept right on working.  He wound up with double pneumonia and down for a month.  Sometimes the individual pushes themselves too hard instead of the management, although in this case, my father was the top, bottom and middle guy...LOL!  Luckily we had many extended family members around so the gas station stayed open until he recovered.  My father's only vacations were not really vacations.  They came due to illness or surgery. 

May you stay safe during this pandemic Max.

Rick

Ironically my Dad has something similar go on with some normally minor bug but kept working.  He ended up getting so sick that I was diagnosed with cardio myopathy and had to get a pace maker installed.  I usually tell people that story when I end up talking to someone who is way too big on "work ethic"  and "long hours."    

Funny you bring up the notion of pandemic.  While the numbers certainly make it clear that in China and parts of Asia that there is a pandemic, I don't think we are anywhere close State Side to having a legitimate case for that.  I guess by the most exacting definition this would be a "true pandemic"  given it has reached pretty much every continent.  But it's hard to really in an uproar with not even a hundred known cases state side.  We were actually talking even going to the Bay Area next weekend to show our Niece Golden Gate Park. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:43:02 PM
About 13 years ago one of my employees left on vacation to Denver.  I come to find out the day after that he was pulled off the plane and taken to the hospital.  Apparently he actually contracted Spinal Meningitis and was in serious condition. A couple days later the guy in the office next to us ended up getting diagnosed with Spinal Meningitis and I had to make a report to the CDC.  All I did after that was disinfect the office a couple times.  People kept asking me if I was scared that I would get sick too, I figured what the point in worrying?  Ultimately I was find and my employee recovered after losing 60 pounds in the hospital. 

After 9/11 I was working a Loss Prevention job at a Target store.  One of the employees brings a weird letter to me that had a white powdery substance leaking out of it.  We had to call the Sheriffs Office and a large part of the store was quarantined for a couple days due to concerns over Anthrax.  Ultimately the letter turned out to contain sugar but again I kept getting non-stop questions if I was worried about getting sick. 

I guess after stuff like that at least for me it's hard to get all worried about something like the Coronavirus or pretty much anything I listed upthread.  Really you could get killed driving to work or even doing something mundane like walking the dog.  I just don't see a point in all these inane articles treating this whole Coronavirus thing State side like it's the end of the world.   But then again what would people complain about if there wasn't something on their news feed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:45:07 PM

Now Orange County, CA is reporting a COVID-19 scare and thats under investigation.




Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:47:16 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:45:07 PM

Now Orange County, CA is reporting a COVID-19 scare and thats under investigation.






See is this actually news until someone actually confirms something?...I say, not so much. 

Now I'm convinced that if the Zombie Apocalypse started to break out it probably wouldn't spread because everyone would panic thinking that they were turning into a zombie.  Would have endless numbers of "zombie scare in Insert county"  stories but almost no actual confirmed cases of Zombification. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:53:04 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:47:16 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:45:07 PM

Now Orange County, CA is reporting a COVID-19 scare and thats under investigation.






See is this actually news until someone actually confirms something?...I say, not so much. 

Now I'm convinced that if the Zombie Apocalypse started to break out it probably wouldn't spread because everyone would panic thinking that they were turning into a zombie.  Would have endless numbers of "zombie scare in Insert county"  stories but almost no actual confirmed cases of Zombification.





I swear sometimes if I didn't choose to major in Biology I would easily fall into conspiracy theories coming from Alex Jones.


Try listening to Microbe.tv I started to listen to these shows and they are podcast shows meant for Virologists. They do a better job explaining viruses. 

http://www.microbe.tv/twievo/twievo-52/ (http://www.microbe.tv/twievo/twievo-52/)

http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-584/ (http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-584/)


http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-582/

http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-586/ (http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-586/)

http://www.microbe.tv/twim/twim-212/ (http://www.microbe.tv/twim/twim-212/)

http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-585/ (http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-585/)



Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:55:20 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:53:04 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:47:16 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:45:07 PM

Now Orange County, CA is reporting a COVID-19 scare and thats under investigation.






See is this actually news until someone actually confirms something?...I say, not so much. 

Now I'm convinced that if the Zombie Apocalypse started to break out it probably wouldn't spread because everyone would panic thinking that they were turning into a zombie.  Would have endless numbers of "zombie scare in Insert county"  stories but almost no actual confirmed cases of Zombification.




I swear sometimes if I didn't choose to major in Biology I would easily fall into conspiracy theories coming from Alex Jones and Del Bigtree.






The conspiracy brigade said the same thing about Bird Flu, SARS, and other recent big name diseases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 07:09:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:55:20 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:53:04 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:47:16 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:45:07 PM

Now Orange County, CA is reporting a COVID-19 scare and thats under investigation.






See is this actually news until someone actually confirms something?...I say, not so much. 

Now I'm convinced that if the Zombie Apocalypse started to break out it probably wouldn't spread because everyone would panic thinking that they were turning into a zombie.  Would have endless numbers of "zombie scare in Insert county"  stories but almost no actual confirmed cases of Zombification.




I swear sometimes if I didn't choose to major in Biology I would easily fall into conspiracy theories coming from Alex Jones and Del Bigtree.






The conspiracy brigade said the same thing about Bird Flu, SARS, and other recent big name diseases.
Yes and I have to deal with the fact that the largest conspiracy theory of CoronaVirus scares in the USA is coming from Solano County, CA Yes I live at the epicenter of this scare. All we are doing here is live our lives as normal and that we will get hit the hardest first before the rest of the United States does because we have the quarantine operations at Travis Air Force Base. Do all we can do is calm down and be careful. and Yes its harder to do if you are not in Sacramento or Bay Area given that some states may not even have protocols for COVID-19 like California and Solano County does with surrounding counties in California watching carefully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: nexus73 on February 29, 2020, 07:19:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 06:32:45 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on February 29, 2020, 05:57:04 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 02:57:40 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on February 29, 2020, 02:36:57 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.
FMLA prohibits such draconian policy.

Yes, but it doesn’t exactly stop a lot of employers from getting pushy with sick absence policies.  For close to 20 years I’ve gotten crap almost every single time I’ve called out maybe 1-3 times a year...and I’ve been salary for most of it.  You can tie a lot of that mindset back to somehow the American mentality is that more work means better work. 

Case and point, our sick usage policy dropped from 6% to 3% annually recently.  Everyone who exceeds that 3% usage is supposed to either provide doctor’s notes or received a “documented” verbal (which means it’s written IMO) warning.  Personally I’m pretty lax with allowing sick usage because with how close my people work in closed offices and vehicles it tends to spread germs fast.  I had to talk one of my investigators into using some of her hundreds of sick hours a couple years back because she had an obvious flu.  I guess she thought I was going to be mad if she called out, I was more upset she came in sick. 

Good on you!  When my father owned a gas station in the mid 60's, he got a bad cold but kept right on working.  He wound up with double pneumonia and down for a month.  Sometimes the individual pushes themselves too hard instead of the management, although in this case, my father was the top, bottom and middle guy...LOL!  Luckily we had many extended family members around so the gas station stayed open until he recovered.  My father's only vacations were not really vacations.  They came due to illness or surgery. 

May you stay safe during this pandemic Max.

Rick

Ironically my Dad has something similar go on with some normally minor bug but kept working.  He ended up getting so sick that I was diagnosed with cardio myopathy and had to get a pace maker installed.  I usually tell people that story when I end up talking to someone who is way too big on “work ethic” and “long hours.”   

Funny you bring up the notion of pandemic.  While the numbers certainly make it clear that in China and parts of Asia that there is a pandemic, I don’t think we are anywhere close State Side to having a legitimate case for that.  I guess by the most exacting definition this would be a “true pandemic” given it has reached pretty much every continent.  But it’s hard to really in an uproar with not even a hundred known cases state side.  We were actually talking even going to the Bay Area next weekend to show our Niece Golden Gate Park. 

The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed my maternal grandmother's mother when the family was living in Oakland.  That led to the father and daughter moving to rural Clark County in Washington (outside of Vancouver) where they lived on a stump farm.  Had there been no pandemic, the way the family I was born into was formed would have never happened.  Sometimes I wonder what life would have been like had I been raised in the SF Bay Area instead of Oregon's Bay Area (Coos Bay/North Bend). 

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on February 29, 2020, 07:26:15 PM
The Spanish Flu largely is thought to have killed at least twice as many people than they direct results of combat in World War I.  If I recall correctly the Military Encampments are largely theorized to have been where the Spanish Flu initially took hold.  Suffice to say 1910s were epically bad on a global scale pretty much across the board. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 07:56:27 PM
https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/02/29/20/pinay-in-singapore-tests-positive-for-covid-19-says-health-ministry
Now a  person in Singapore is dealing with COVID-19 and the tests are reported positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 08:04:02 PM
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/03/01/1997183/4-more-repatriates-show-covid-19-signs

Now Philippines is reporting 4 people are under investigation for COVID-19 symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 02 Park Ave on February 29, 2020, 08:32:38 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.

If Quarantine is declared for an area, no one would be allowed on the roads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mr. Matté on February 29, 2020, 09:33:55 PM
Quote from: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 06:53:04 PM
I swear sometimes if I didn't choose to major in Biology I would easily fall into conspiracy theories coming from Alex Jones.

Try listening to Microbe.tv I started to listen to these shows and they are podcast shows meant for Virologists. They do a better job explaining viruses.

...



Who else thought this was a podcast meant for "Viatologists" and Alex Jones in the thumbnail?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on February 29, 2020, 10:11:21 PM
This is why the media needs to stop creating false alarms all the time...

"Suspected coronavirus case in Monmouth County being treated and tested"
https://www.nj.com/news/2020/02/suspected-coronavirus-case-being-treated-in-monmouth-county.html

became...

"N.J. patient does not have coronavirus, health department says"
https://www.nj.com/monmouth/2020/02/nj-patient-does-not-have-coronavirus-health-department-says.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on February 29, 2020, 10:18:54 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on February 29, 2020, 10:11:21 PM
This is why the media needs to stop creating false alarms all the time...
They have to share (or create) whatever sells. How else would networks like CNN or FOX be able to run their channels 24/7?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on February 29, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on February 29, 2020, 10:18:54 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on February 29, 2020, 10:11:21 PM
This is why the media needs to stop creating false alarms all the time...
They have to share (or create) whatever sells. How else would networks like CNN or FOX be able to run their channels 24/7?

Or TWC's named Winter Storms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on February 29, 2020, 10:28:35 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on February 29, 2020, 08:32:38 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.

If Quarantine is declared for an area, no one would be allowed on the roads.
On ABC News last (?) night, someone mentioned having two weeks worth of groceries as something we need to do to prepare, which makes me wonder if the government is actually considering doing that here.

As for me, I'm more afraid of what the government is going to do in response to the virus than the virus itself.  I don't handle disruptions to my life very well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on February 29, 2020, 10:59:29 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on February 29, 2020, 10:11:21 PM
This is why the media needs to stop creating false alarms all the time...

"Suspected coronavirus case in Monmouth County being treated and tested"
https://www.nj.com/news/2020/02/suspected-coronavirus-case-being-treated-in-monmouth-county.html (https://www.nj.com/news/2020/02/suspected-coronavirus-case-being-treated-in-monmouth-county.html)

became...

"N.J. patient does not have coronavirus, health department says"
https://www.nj.com/monmouth/2020/02/nj-patient-does-not-have-coronavirus-health-department-says.html (https://www.nj.com/monmouth/2020/02/nj-patient-does-not-have-coronavirus-health-department-says.html)


The Sacramento and Bay Area media outlets are probably the most guilty of all the media outlets in the nation for doing this given that they want to make sure the West Coast division isn't "hiding anything" that will trigger people in the rest of the country over America's biggest quarantine processing operation in Fairfield, CA. If you live in other parts of the country expect CDC to show up with your state health official in the coming weeks as COVID-19 starts to escalate in other parts of the country.












Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 01, 2020, 12:41:22 AM
Quote from: vdeane on February 29, 2020, 10:28:35 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on February 29, 2020, 08:32:38 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on February 29, 2020, 01:51:55 PM
I have to wonder how a quarantine/"stay home" mandate like we're seeing in other countries would go over in the US. So many employers here have draconian attendance policies that I think a lot of people would ignore the government and go to work anyway in fear of losing their job. Where I work, you're only allowed 10 unscheduled absences in a rolling year period, no matter the reason. Thus, I fully expect to contract the coronavirus from one of my coworkers should it spread to this part of the country.

If Quarantine is declared for an area, no one would be allowed on the roads.
On ABC News last (?) night, someone mentioned having two weeks worth of groceries as something we need to do to prepare, which makes me wonder if the government is actually considering doing that here.

As for me, I'm more afraid of what the government is going to do in response to the virus than the virus itself.  I don't handle disruptions to my life very well.

I doubt the government is going to do anything so drastic. This, again, is more media focused than anything. If the virus does manage to get so out of control that your entire region is affected, most people should consider sheltering-in-place anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 01, 2020, 01:03:57 AM
Here is a bedtime story about a real pandemic:

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 01, 2020, 04:43:51 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 01, 2020, 12:41:22 AM
This, again, is more media focused than anything. If the virus does manage to get so out of control that your entire region is affected, most people should consider sheltering-in-place anyway.

But what I'm saying is even then, people won't, because they might get fired for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 01, 2020, 07:09:09 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 01, 2020, 04:43:51 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 01, 2020, 12:41:22 AM
This, again, is more media focused than anything. If the virus does manage to get so out of control that your entire region is affected, most people should consider sheltering-in-place anyway.

But what I'm saying is even then, people won't, because they might get fired for it.

Honestly, that's a legitimate excuse why someone should go out. However, to use your workplace as an example, do your customers really need to be there? Every one of them elected to ignore the request to shelter in place request. Or the coworkers that stopped to get gas or coffee, and thus being around others who may already be sick.

Or a better one...I have often seen people that are very diligent trying not to touch anything in a bathroom, yet will touch money or a gas pump handle without a second thought. By the time they reach for the sanitizer,  they've already touched their wallet, door handle and steering wheel, making much of that cleansing process mute because they're gonna retouch that germed-up things soon anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 01, 2020, 07:23:50 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 01, 2020, 04:43:51 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 01, 2020, 12:41:22 AM
This, again, is more media focused than anything. If the virus does manage to get so out of control that your entire region is affected, most people should consider sheltering-in-place anyway.

But what I'm saying is even then, people won't, because they might get fired for it.
There shoukd be some laws on the books regarding quarantine powers of the government, so business may have no say. Next, lots of customer facing businesses would have to downscale, if not stop operations with customers being on lockdown.
It can easily turn out that smaller business may not survive such an interruption, thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 01, 2020, 09:06:24 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 01, 2020, 07:09:09 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 01, 2020, 04:43:51 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 01, 2020, 12:41:22 AM
This, again, is more media focused than anything. If the virus does manage to get so out of control that your entire region is affected, most people should consider sheltering-in-place anyway.

But what I'm saying is even then, people won't, because they might get fired for it.

Honestly, that's a legitimate excuse why someone should go out. However, to use your workplace as an example, do your customers really need to be there? Every one of them elected to ignore the request to shelter in place request. Or the coworkers that stopped to get gas or coffee, and thus being around others who may already be sick.

Or a better one...I have often seen people that are very diligent trying not to touch anything in a bathroom, yet will touch money or a gas pump handle without a second thought. By the time they reach for the sanitizer,  they've already touched their wallet, door handle and steering wheel, making much of that cleansing process mute because they're gonna retouch that germed-up things soon anyway.

That just speaks to the fact that most people know almost nothing about how germs actually transfer or hygiene in general.  Another example is all these masks people wear when you get some sort of virus floating around.  Usually they aren't even the correct masks to stop transfer of germs and they generally aren't even work correctly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 02:57:20 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-coronavirus-closed-headquarters-in-oregon-after-1st-us-death-2020-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-coronavirus-closed-headquarters-in-oregon-after-1st-us-death-2020-3)


Nike closes their Oregon offices due to a COVID-19 scare.




https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/citing-an-abundance-of-caution-over-coronavirus-nike-closes-beaverton-campus-for-weekend/283-9e8f1a3b-8c42-4a41-a56e-7eb6595d945a (https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/citing-an-abundance-of-caution-over-coronavirus-nike-closes-beaverton-campus-for-weekend/283-9e8f1a3b-8c42-4a41-a56e-7eb6595d945a)




https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/coronavirus-outbreak-us-cases-chicago-rhode-island (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/coronavirus-outbreak-us-cases-chicago-rhode-island)


Illinois and Rhode Island have COVID-19 investigations underway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 03:11:55 PM
Rhode Island has announced that they have a report of COVID-19 in their area.




Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 04:28:40 PM
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240767626.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240767626.html)


Now Coronavirus protocols in Solano County are facing further scrutiny.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Best advice for dealing with this shit?

Continue standard hygiene behavior practices as usual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 01, 2020, 06:35:21 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Best advice for dealing with this shit?

Continue standard hygiene behavior practices as usual.
For many people there's a better advise: follow standard hygiene behavior practices, unlike  usual neglect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 01, 2020, 06:54:42 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 01, 2020, 06:35:21 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Best advice for dealing with this shit?

Continue standard hygiene behavior practices as usual.
For many people there's a better advise: follow standard hygiene behavior practices, unlike  usual neglect.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/YLXmL4Ta2ErVBR7WGxBm2V7BmjKkY-npNxZZo3iQtntl_vmUkyjLKOshWnP8aP3-Bix3uD5jjpnL9ly7T0PUS6I3e1z5Dlrzhk7z9LLUmHIsm3U)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 07:45:47 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Best advice for dealing with this shit?

Continue standard hygiene behavior practices as usual.


Good Point





Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 01, 2020, 07:52:02 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 07:45:47 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Best advice for dealing with this shit?

Continue standard hygiene behavior practices as usual.


Good Point

Just rub Vick's on that Coronavirus, problem solved...or at least that's what my wife thinks.  Usually that Vick's comes in on the waning days of disease (for me) and somehow steals all the credit as a miracle cure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 08:59:32 PM
https://abc7ny.com/health/first-positive-case-of-coronavirus-in-nyc-governor-cuomo-confirms/5977498/ (https://abc7ny.com/health/first-positive-case-of-coronavirus-in-nyc-governor-cuomo-confirms/5977498/)                                                                                                                     
      Now New York State is reporting a COVID-19 scare.                                       
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 09:26:59 PM
yawn
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 01, 2020, 09:58:35 PM
Another American victim
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.amp.html

SM-G965U

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 01, 2020, 10:17:01 PM
https://virusoutbreak.wtf  (https://virusoutbreak.wtf)


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 01, 2020, 10:53:44 PM
Meanwhile in the Mushroom Kingdom Dr. Mario races to find a cure.  Rumor has it a combo of three red pills lined up with a red Coronavirus will "cure"  it:



For those who prefer Fever over Chill:


Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 11:35:32 PM
https://www.kcra.com/article/2-being-tested-for-coronavirus-after-exposure-solano-county-patient/31179276 (https://www.kcra.com/article/2-being-tested-for-coronavirus-after-exposure-solano-county-patient/31179276)


Now More people at a Solano County, CA Hospital are being investigated for COVID-19.


Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Takumi on March 01, 2020, 11:43:26 PM
https://www.motorsport.com/motogp/news/qatar-motogp-opener-cancelled-coronavirus/4707355/
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 11:44:35 PM
Here is the report


Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 02, 2020, 12:02:59 AM
Quote from: Takumi on March 01, 2020, 11:43:26 PM
https://www.motorsport.com/motogp/news/qatar-motogp-opener-cancelled-coronavirus/4707355/
The Geneva Motor Show was also canceled due to the virus.

SM-G965U

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on March 02, 2020, 12:20:37 AM
Even other Euro trade shows have been canceled, postponed, or have had other countries pull out of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 12:57:43 AM
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/florida-health-officials-working-to-confirm-first-reported-case-of-coronavirus-in-the-state/2199123/
Update Now Florida has an ongoing Coronavirus investigation.

Expect all 50 states and US Territories to start having press conferences with the CDC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 02, 2020, 04:26:42 AM
Mean while, cold and flu continue to plague thousands across the nation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 10:54:07 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 02, 2020, 04:26:42 AM
Mean while, cold and flu continue to plague thousands across the nation.

https://laist.com/latest/post/20200205/measles-outbreak-los-angeles-county



https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/02/27/mumps-keystone-ski-area-employees-summit-county/


You got a good point there are other outbreaks out there but its being overshadowed by COVID-19 scares
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 02, 2020, 12:54:46 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 10:54:07 AM
You got a good point there are other outbreaks out there but its being overshadowed by COVID-19 scares
Probably because COVID-19 is the one that will get you quarantined for two weeks if you have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 02:26:53 PM
Update New Hampshire has announced a COVID-19 Investigation at play.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 02:31:00 PM
Here is more


Title: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 02, 2020, 02:42:24 PM
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0OIWazxq?pd=03WJzEsh&s=i4  (https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0OIWazxq?pd=03WJzEsh&s=i4)


iPhone

98 Year old woman cured of Corona virus in Wuhan
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 07:01:06 PM
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-us-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-03-02/


Update 6 People Reported Dead by COVID-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 11:38:10 PM
Here is the Florida Announcement of COVID-19 investigation.




Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 02, 2020, 11:39:26 PM
Here is a COVID-19 investigation by World Health Organization.




Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 03, 2020, 07:52:38 AM

Georgia announces a COVID-19 investigation

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 03, 2020, 07:55:32 AM
New Zealand has announced a COVID-19 investigation


Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 03, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Notes:
1. In the US, there seems to be a West Coast bias and an urban bias.
2. It's not that much of a problem in the US until it starts spreading. New locations aren't the same as spreading. But once it spreads...
3. The world seems to be getting about 2000 new cases per day. Compared to the world population, it's a somewhat small number.
4. Covfefe and COVID-19 are almost adjacent alphabetically. (However, Covia is the name of a company, and it's in between.)
5. I rather like the name "Mexican beer virus". However, I do find it unfair that their sales are going down just because of the epidemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 08:17:27 AM
Honestly, the news reports of 'investigations' needs to stop (and to be clear, I'm not saying you need to stop posting them, I'm saying the news conferences shouldn't even occur in the first place).  What happens most often is that the news conferences are played on every TV station and reported on every news site in the state, and passed around on social media.  When it turns out the person didn't have the virus, it gets much less airplay, and fewer shares on social media.

Again...this all relates back to the media.  The influence they have on how we act and do things is more significant than any other public figure in modern times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 08:43:03 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 03, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

5. I rather like the name "Mexican beer virus". However, I do find it unfair that their sales are going down just because of the epidemic.

I'm surprised someone hasn't worked up a "most interesting man in the world"  meme given how many Corona Beer Virus Memes are out there already. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 09:33:47 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 03, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Notes:
1. In the US, there seems to be a West Coast bias and an urban bias.
2. It's not that much of a problem in the US until it starts spreading. New locations aren't the same as spreading. But once it spreads...
3. The world seems to be getting about 2000 new cases per day. Compared to the world population, it's a somewhat small number.
4. Covfefe and COVID-19 are almost adjacent alphabetically. (However, Covia is the name of a company, and it's in between.)
5. I rather like the name "Mexican beer virus". However, I do find it unfair that their sales are going down just because of the epidemic.

I am concerned being as I do doordash in philly.

With the first case being in NY thats a stone throw from Philly.

5 Million people left Wuhan since December.

That means the chances of the virus being in the Philly metro is 70%.

Even though the virus is more deadly for older people & immune compromised. Getting the virus & having a chance of getting extremely sick or getting the virus & having it come back every year till the vaccine is established will be bad on some people's health.

The worse part about this is the 2 week period before feeling any symptoms.

Which means you can spread it to 100's of people or come into contact with people who have it.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 03, 2020, 10:21:15 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 09:33:47 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 03, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Notes:
1. In the US, there seems to be a West Coast bias and an urban bias.
2. It's not that much of a problem in the US until it starts spreading. New locations aren't the same as spreading. But once it spreads...
3. The world seems to be getting about 2000 new cases per day. Compared to the world population, it's a somewhat small number.
4. Covfefe and COVID-19 are almost adjacent alphabetically. (However, Covia is the name of a company, and it's in between.)
5. I rather like the name "Mexican beer virus". However, I do find it unfair that their sales are going down just because of the epidemic.

I am concerned being as I do doordash in philly.

With the first case being in NY thats a stone throw from Philly.

5 Million people left Wuhan since December.

That means the chances of the virus being in the Philly metro is 70%.

Even though the virus is more deadly for older people & immune compromised. Getting the virus & having a chance of getting extremely sick or getting the virus & having it come back every year till the vaccine is established will be bad on some people's health.

The worse part about this is the 2 week period before feeling any symptoms.

Which means you can spread it to 100's of people or come into contact with people who have it.


iPhone
if 100s of people were that easily infected, everyone would be sick by now. Average number of transmissions seem to be about 3. Some are higher, many are lower. 3 is still a lot, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 10:43:57 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 09:33:47 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 03, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Notes:
1. In the US, there seems to be a West Coast bias and an urban bias.
2. It's not that much of a problem in the US until it starts spreading. New locations aren't the same as spreading. But once it spreads...
3. The world seems to be getting about 2000 new cases per day. Compared to the world population, it's a somewhat small number.
4. Covfefe and COVID-19 are almost adjacent alphabetically. (However, Covia is the name of a company, and it's in between.)
5. I rather like the name "Mexican beer virus". However, I do find it unfair that their sales are going down just because of the epidemic.

I am concerned being as I do doordash in philly.

With the first case being in NY thats a stone throw from Philly.

5 Million people left Wuhan since December.

That means the chances of the virus being in the Philly metro is 70%.

Even though the virus is more deadly for older people & immune compromised. Getting the virus & having a chance of getting extremely sick or getting the virus & having it come back every year till the vaccine is established will be bad on some people's health.

The worse part about this is the 2 week period before feeling any symptoms.

Which means you can spread it to 100's of people or come into contact with people who have it.


iPhone

I wouldn't be worried about DoorDash deliveries.  Have you touched any snail-mail recently?  It could just as likely any mailperson that has handled your mail has the virus.

Have you been in a store on your own?  Anyone in that store could have had the virus.

Similarly, I wouldn't be worried about New York City. The entire universe is a stone's throw from the city with the amount of traffic that goes thru that city, then drives away, gets on a train to anywhere in the Northeast, or on a plane anywhere in the world.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 03, 2020, 10:48:12 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

If Seattle is quarantined, that means that the rest of Seattle is much more likely to get the virus, even if stops the spread outside of Seattle.

Do we know if the people that died live within the same square mile?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 10:54:45 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 03, 2020, 10:48:12 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

If Seattle is quarantined, that means that the rest of Seattle is much more likely to get the virus, even if stops the spread outside of Seattle.

Do we know if the people that died live within the same square mile?
They were all from the nursing home.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 10:55:56 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 03, 2020, 10:21:15 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 09:33:47 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 03, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Notes:
1. In the US, there seems to be a West Coast bias and an urban bias.
2. It's not that much of a problem in the US until it starts spreading. New locations aren't the same as spreading. But once it spreads...
3. The world seems to be getting about 2000 new cases per day. Compared to the world population, it's a somewhat small number.
4. Covfefe and COVID-19 are almost adjacent alphabetically. (However, Covia is the name of a company, and it's in between.)
5. I rather like the name "Mexican beer virus". However, I do find it unfair that their sales are going down just because of the epidemic.

I am concerned being as I do doordash in philly.

With the first case being in NY thats a stone throw from Philly.

5 Million people left Wuhan since December.

That means the chances of the virus being in the Philly metro is 70%.

Even though the virus is more deadly for older people & immune compromised. Getting the virus & having a chance of getting extremely sick or getting the virus & having it come back every year till the vaccine is established will be bad on some people's health.

The worse part about this is the 2 week period before feeling any symptoms.

Which means you can spread it to 100's of people or come into contact with people who have it.


iPhone
if 100s of people were that easily infected, everyone would be sick by now. Average number of transmissions seem to be about 3. Some are higher, many are lower. 3 is still a lot, though.
Oh so the spread isnt as fast as everyone is thinking then.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 10:58:42 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

How long would anyone last being cooped up in their houses for 2 weeks.  Ignore the work issue.  Think everything else that you would need on a daily basis.

Delivery doesn't get around it, because, remember, the entire city/region is quarantined.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 10:58:43 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 10:43:57 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 03, 2020, 09:33:47 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 03, 2020, 08:03:52 AM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Notes:
1. In the US, there seems to be a West Coast bias and an urban bias.
2. It's not that much of a problem in the US until it starts spreading. New locations aren't the same as spreading. But once it spreads...
3. The world seems to be getting about 2000 new cases per day. Compared to the world population, it's a somewhat small number.
4. Covfefe and COVID-19 are almost adjacent alphabetically. (However, Covia is the name of a company, and it's in between.)
5. I rather like the name "Mexican beer virus". However, I do find it unfair that their sales are going down just because of the epidemic.

I am concerned being as I do doordash in philly.

With the first case being in NY thats a stone throw from Philly.

5 Million people left Wuhan since December.

That means the chances of the virus being in the Philly metro is 70%.

Even though the virus is more deadly for older people & immune compromised. Getting the virus & having a chance of getting extremely sick or getting the virus & having it come back every year till the vaccine is established will be bad on some people's health.

The worse part about this is the 2 week period before feeling any symptoms.

Which means you can spread it to 100's of people or come into contact with people who have it.


iPhone

I wouldn't be worried about DoorDash deliveries.  Have you touched any snail-mail recently?  It could just as likely any mailperson that has handled your mail has the virus.

Have you been in a store on your own?  Anyone in that store could have had the virus.

Similarly, I wouldn't be worried about New York City. The entire universe is a stone's throw from the city with the amount of traffic that goes thru that city, then drives away, gets on a train to anywhere in the Northeast, or on a plane anywhere in the world.
Havent touched any mail yet. I saw a article about a USPS delivery person having it.

The only issue I have with the door dash is the fact that I touch doors & etc. but ive been washing my hands as always & using hand sanitizer. Even though that gets cancelled out by germs in the car & etc.

I have been in walmart & well we all know how walmart is.....

I see New york is taking precautionary measures so they arent slacking. Im sure a city with 8 million knows how to handle it self.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 03, 2020, 11:32:46 AM
There are unconfirmed reports of several people infected in Arkansas. 

On a semi-related note,  the St. Francis County Sheriff's Office has offered free testing of meth for Corona virus ;)
https://www.foxnews.com/us/arkansas-police-offer-to-test-meth-for-coronavirus-better-safe-than-sorry
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 11:34:57 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 10:58:42 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

How long would anyone last being cooped up in their houses for 2 weeks.  Ignore the work issue.  Think everything else that you would need on a daily basis.

Delivery doesn't get around it, because, remember, the entire city/region is quarantined.

Be prepared!  Think of the reports and pictures out of the Peoples Republic of China over the past six weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 11:35:58 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

Maybe he's thinking thy trying to quarantine a city the size of Seattle for a virus that is actually not really wide spread is insane?...or at least a waste of resources?  The amount of manpower that would be required to enforce shutting down a City the size of Seattle is massive and expensive. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 03, 2020, 11:38:54 AM
Quote from: US71 on March 03, 2020, 11:32:46 AM
There are unconfirmed reports of several people infected in Arkansas. 

On a semi-related note,  the St. Francis County Sheriff's Office has offered free testing of meth for Corona virus ;)
https://www.foxnews.com/us/arkansas-police-offer-to-test-meth-for-coronavirus-better-safe-than-sorry

I bet there's a dumbass that falls for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 11:42:23 AM
Quote from: LM117 on March 03, 2020, 11:38:54 AM
Quote from: US71 on March 03, 2020, 11:32:46 AM
There are unconfirmed reports of several people infected in Arkansas. 

On a semi-related note,  the St. Francis County Sheriff's Office has offered free testing of meth for Corona virus ;)
https://www.foxnews.com/us/arkansas-police-offer-to-test-meth-for-coronavirus-better-safe-than-sorry

Well come on now, what good is meth if it's laced with Coronavirus?

I bet there's a dumbass that falls for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 11:47:35 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 11:34:57 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 10:58:42 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

How long would anyone last being cooped up in their houses for 2 weeks.  Ignore the work issue.  Think everything else that you would need on a daily basis.

Delivery doesn't get around it, because, remember, the entire city/region is quarantined.

Be prepared!  Think of the reports and pictures out of the Peoples Republic of China over the past six weeks.

Suddenly I'm reminded of a certain Lion feeding a group of Hyenas a bag of good in song form.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 02:10:40 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

The virus has been circulating here for weeks and so far all but one of the fatal cases have been linked to that single nursing home. All fatalities from older people with underlying health conditions.

A full shutdown would be unnecessary at this point and do more harm than good. People are panic buying like crazy and having an announced shutdown would quickly turn into mass hysteria that could overwhelm emergency services and supply chains. Not to mention the effects on the national economy, since the Seattle area is home to some of the largest companies in the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 02:50:04 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 11:34:57 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 03, 2020, 10:58:42 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 03, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
I am surprised that Seattle hasn't been shut down yet.

What is Governor Inslee thinking?

How long would anyone last being cooped up in their houses for 2 weeks.  Ignore the work issue.  Think everything else that you would need on a daily basis.

Delivery doesn't get around it, because, remember, the entire city/region is quarantined.

Be prepared!  Think of the reports and pictures out of the Peoples Republic of China over the past six weeks.

This would mean you won't want to leave your house NOW.  By the time the virus is in the area, it's too late.

That would also mean you would have to have been prepared already.  Going out tonight to gather supplies for a month-long slumber party would put you at risk with anyone else that is getting prepared, and unknowingly already has the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 03:10:19 PM
Most stores are out of the "essentials" (toilet paper, canned foods, instant meals, rice, beans) because of panic buying. It really shows how ill prepared most Americans are for any kind of disaster or situation...makes me really fear what would happen in the event of a major earthquake (when supplies would be extremely limited because of impassible routes).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 03:33:45 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 03:10:19 PM
Most stores are out of the "essentials" (toilet paper, canned foods, instant meals, rice, beans) because of panic buying. It really shows how ill prepared most Americans are for any kind of disaster or situation...makes me really fear what would happen in the event of a major earthquake (when supplies would be extremely limited because of impassible routes).

Never mind the fact that metro Seattle is way more susceptible to a major earthquake than a large scale pandemic.  That said, most people in Seattle have been through enough earthquakes that it is a known quantity and people have become harden to the danger of a large scale event.  The fact that this whole virus talk is in the news all the time and not something people live with everyday gets a lot folks spun up...in this case needlessly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 04:30:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 03:33:45 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 03:10:19 PM
Most stores are out of the "essentials" (toilet paper, canned foods, instant meals, rice, beans) because of panic buying. It really shows how ill prepared most Americans are for any kind of disaster or situation...makes me really fear what would happen in the event of a major earthquake (when supplies would be extremely limited because of impassible routes).

Never mind the fact that metro Seattle is way more susceptible to a major earthquake than a large scale pandemic.  That said, most people in Seattle have been through enough earthquakes that it is a known quantity and people have become harden to the danger of a large scale event.  The fact that this whole virus talk is in the news all the time and not something people live with everyday gets a lot folks spun up...in this case needlessly.

The number of transplants since the 2001 Nisqually quake (which wasn't felt by all of the metro area) makes me think that most don't have a living memory of it. Plus, the biggest earthquake risks are two different kinds: the Cascadia subduction zone's megathrust event, which would be a multi-state disaster; or the rupture of a shallow local fault like the Seattle Fault, which would quickly liquefy quite a few areas and bring strong shaking right under downtown Seattle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 03, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
1 case confirmed in North Carolina.

https://abc11.com/health/first-nc-novel-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-wake-county/5982249/ (https://abc11.com/health/first-nc-novel-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-wake-county/5982249/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 04:59:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 04:30:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 03, 2020, 03:33:45 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 03:10:19 PM
Most stores are out of the "essentials" (toilet paper, canned foods, instant meals, rice, beans) because of panic buying. It really shows how ill prepared most Americans are for any kind of disaster or situation...makes me really fear what would happen in the event of a major earthquake (when supplies would be extremely limited because of impassible routes).

Never mind the fact that metro Seattle is way more susceptible to a major earthquake than a large scale pandemic.  That said, most people in Seattle have been through enough earthquakes that it is a known quantity and people have become harden to the danger of a large scale event.  The fact that this whole virus talk is in the news all the time and not something people live with everyday gets a lot folks spun up...in this case needlessly.

The number of transplants since the 2001 Nisqually quake (which wasn't felt by all of the metro area) makes me think that most don't have a living memory of it. Plus, the biggest earthquake risks are two different kinds: the Cascadia subduction zone's megathrust event, which would be a multi-state disaster; or the rupture of a shallow local fault like the Seattle Fault, which would quickly liquefy quite a few areas and bring strong shaking right under downtown Seattle.

To an extent it's kind of the same way down here in Central California.  All the older locals really didn't even have a reaction to the Ridgecrest Earthquake and foreshock.  Pretty much everyone who was from the eastern states started to panic when the foreshock hit us.  The ratio of people who are new around here to those who are endemic was more equally proportional than I thought. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 03, 2020, 06:50:55 PM
https://apnews.com/dcd130364f2bbec8142d0ae47f805cba (https://apnews.com/dcd130364f2bbec8142d0ae47f805cba)


9 people dead by COVID-19 in the USA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 03, 2020, 06:54:21 PM
Here we go again more press conferences over the fallout.


Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 03, 2020, 06:55:07 PM
Another one for New York and their COVID-19 fallout.




Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 03, 2020, 06:56:25 PM

And from Miami.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 03, 2020, 06:57:25 PM
Can you add a blurb of context before dropping these videos in the middle of the thread? It's unhelpful to link to long pressers without location and dates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: tolbs17 on March 03, 2020, 07:02:39 PM
Raleigh, North Carolina.

Coronavirus from a traveler from Washington state. Hope this doesn't spread..
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 03, 2020, 08:51:43 PM
So two people at NYSDOT's Buffalo office came back from Northern Italy with symptoms and went into work as if nothing was happening.  Scary.

Meanwhile we've just had our first case of community spread, and it's resulting in quarantines beyond the person who has it.  Everyone in his place of worship has been put under mandatory self quarantine.  Imagine that, you can be going about your life, no sign of coronavirus in yourself, and then placed on lockdown in your home or apartment, with no ability to do laundry, take out the trash, get groceries, etc.  As someone who can't cope with uncertainty and disruptions to my routine and plans, it's quite nerve-wracking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 03, 2020, 09:31:39 PM
https://abc7news.com/health/evacuees-held-at-travis-air-force-base-released-from-quarantine/5979137/ (https://abc7news.com/health/evacuees-held-at-travis-air-force-base-released-from-quarantine/5979137/)




https://www.kcra.com/article/travis-air-force-base-evacuees-released-14-day-quarantine/31188725 (https://www.kcra.com/article/travis-air-force-base-evacuees-released-14-day-quarantine/31188725)




Update some of the victims are being released from Travis Air Force Base over quarantine operations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 03, 2020, 09:34:32 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 03, 2020, 08:51:43 PM
So two people at NYSDOT's Buffalo office came back from Northern Italy with symptoms and went into work as if nothing was happening.

Ugh.  If this is true, it shows how much priorities are out of whack.  NYSDOT employees accrue ample sick leave.

But, if it is just a rumor coming from jerk employees, that's another matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 04, 2020, 07:47:26 AM
https://fox6now.com/2020/03/03/amazon-employee-tests-positive-for-covid-19/


A new report is saying that an Amazon Employee is tested positive for COVID-19 and is in quarantine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 04, 2020, 08:04:18 AM
1st case in philly is under investigation


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 04, 2020, 11:51:40 AM
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/health-officials-to-make-major-announcements-1-day-after-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-l-a-county/ (https://ktla.com/news/local-news/health-officials-to-make-major-announcements-1-day-after-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-l-a-county/)




The County of Los Angeles has announced a Coronavirus case in the county.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 04, 2020, 02:36:22 PM
VP Pence says ten Americans have died to the virus, 1k in self-quarantine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 04, 2020, 03:24:12 PM
This coronavirus stuff just got serious: CNN reports the new James Bond movie's release date has been delayed from April to November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 03:54:11 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 04, 2020, 03:24:12 PM
This coronavirus stuff just got serious: CNN reports the new James Bond movie's release date has been delayed from April to November.

Probably will be a letdown anyways, SPECTRE was. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 04, 2020, 04:37:27 PM
https://www.kcra.com/article/first-california-coronavirus-death-confirmed-placer-county/31228355
Update now there are reports that a Placer County,CA Person has died of COVID-19 and it is the first known reported death in California form COVID-19.
https://www.ktvu.com/news/first-coronavirus-death-reported-in-california-person-had-been-on-cruise-to-mexico
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 07:15:54 PM
Bing...any updates on all the news reports you posted regarding potential cases?

The first Philly apparently was negative, although they're testing someone else. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-19-philadelphia-negative-test-20200304.html

However, I couldn't help notice this blurb in the article: "Health officials have been directed to err on the side of caution in deciding whom to test, now that cases with no known source of infection suggest the virus is spreading from person to person in California, Oregon, Washington, and beyond."  Except...nearly all the cases reported seem to be potential cases, with most either being found negative, or whem tested positive the person having a true source, such as recent travels.

I read how several schools have cancelled domestic travel for their sports groups. This is where fear mongering takes full effect. Let's say Penn State doesn't want to travel to Pittsburgh for fear of the virus. Is the school banning students from traveling to Pittsburgh to see their families? What's the difference?

Just absolute craziness...especially when, in most cities, there's were more deaths from shootings or drug use today than from this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on March 04, 2020, 07:19:28 PM
Apparently there is report of about a dozen unconfirmed cases here. Stay tuned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 07:33:20 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 07:15:54 PM
I read how several schools have cancelled domestic travel for their sports groups. This is where fear mongering takes full effect. Let's say Penn State doesn't want to travel to Pittsburgh for fear of the virus. Is the school banning students from traveling to Pittsburgh to see their families? What's the difference?

Just absolute craziness...especially when, in most cities, there's were more deaths from shootings or drug use today than from this virus.
China went from first signs to total hell in a month. US is in the first week of that journey  - and it's anyone's guess if same thing is going to happen, or weak government would make it worse.
Yes, for now there are just a few deaths - but who knows if it would be few tens or few tens thousands in a month? I am not betting here.
CDC failed miserably so far, and apparently there were no whistleblowers in medical community. If what happened so far is not a wake up call... prepare for the worst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikieTimT on March 04, 2020, 07:47:30 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 07:33:20 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 07:15:54 PM
I read how several schools have cancelled domestic travel for their sports groups. This is where fear mongering takes full effect. Let's say Penn State doesn't want to travel to Pittsburgh for fear of the virus. Is the school banning students from traveling to Pittsburgh to see their families? What's the difference?

Just absolute craziness...especially when, in most cities, there's were more deaths from shootings or drug use today than from this virus.
China went from first signs to total hell in a month. US is in the first week of that journey  - and it's anyone's guess if same thing is going to happen, or weak government would make it worse.
Yes, for now there are just a few deaths - but who knows if it would be few tens or few tens thousands in a month? I am not betting here.
CDC failed miserably so far, and apparently there were no whistleblowers in medical community. If what happened so far is not a wake up call... prepare for the worst.

There aren't likely to be as many deaths here with better medical treatment, but the culture of work in this country means that there will be lots of opportunity for transmission as most people work through sickness with the lack of paid sick days or fear of retribution otherwise.  Most healthy people will just assume they have a mild cold or flu and push through just like they normally do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 07:55:13 PM
This is just scaring me with the way cases are rising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 07:59:05 PM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 04, 2020, 07:47:30 PM
There aren't likely to be as many deaths here with better medical treatment, but the culture of work in this country means that there will be lots of opportunity for transmission as most people work through sickness with the lack of paid sick days or fear of retribution otherwise.  Most healthy people will just assume they have a mild cold or flu and push through just like they normally do.
It is not about quality, it is about quantity. It is not about heart transplants, it is about checking everyone's lungs with a 18th century tool.
US has more doctor than CHina per capita - but not 2x as much.
And with no domestic manufacturing for things like IV systems and masks, US can be in a worse situation pretty quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 08:03:01 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 07:55:13 PM
This is just scaring me with the way cases are rising.

Did it get to you when it was the other 21st pandemics I listed up thread?  It seems that almost all the fear is driven by 24/7 media coverage which still wasn't fully a thing until this past decade. 

I just spent a good portion of my afternoon fielding questions from workers if they should cancel trips.  I told them all the same thing, their odds of catching anything are so remote that it would just be a waste of money not to do the things they planned.  I can understand that it is in their face on the news everyday but this is getting annoying and frustrating for me since I'm the one who has to abate the workforce paranoia. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 08:06:29 PM
I didn't see your thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 08:07:50 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 08:06:29 PM
I didn't see your thread.

Upthread in this thread.   Some examples; Bird Flu, SARS, H1N1 Flu outbreak, and even the post 9/11 Anthrax scares. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 04, 2020, 08:09:58 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 03, 2020, 11:32:46 AM
There are unconfirmed reports of several people infected in Arkansas. 

On a semi-related note,  the St. Francis County Sheriff's Office has offered free testing of meth for Corona virus ;)
https://www.foxnews.com/us/arkansas-police-offer-to-test-meth-for-coronavirus-better-safe-than-sorry
Battlefield, MO (https://www.ky3.com/content/news/Battlefield-police-offer-to-test-local-meth-for-Coronavirus-568371191.html) also tested meth for the virus. It's called 417 for a reason  ;-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:10:38 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 08:06:29 PM
I didn't see your thread.
@Max Rockatansky is referring to comparison with swine flu, mexican flu, whatever else came and went without major effect.
It is anyone's guess if this is the same situation, and we'll all vaguely remember something few months from now. Or it could be a real thing at the end of the day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 08:23:00 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:10:38 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 08:06:29 PM
I didn't see your thread.
@Max Rockatansky is referring to comparison with swine flu, mexican flu, whatever else came and went without major effect.
It is anyone's guess if this is the same situation, and we'll all vaguely remember something few months from now. Or it could be a real thing at the end of the day.

The concerning thing for me as someone who has been involved in emergency Managment is that every time there is something in news like this the coverage has become increasingly alarmist in nature.  In turn it causes a lot of regular people to panic and do things like clear off shelves at stores or start doing things that grind everyday life to a halt.  Compared to some of those other diseases I listed this is by far the most panicked general response I've seen in my career.  Similarly I've seen similar escalations with natural disasters during the last two decades as well.  On the whole I don't think it is a good thing, it affects people who shouldn't be uprooting their lives and tied up a lot of emergency resources. 

Then again I could be the one who is wrong and pretty soon we'll be settling our disputes via Thunder Dome or Face the Wheel.  Either way I just can't bring myself to believe sitting around cooped up waiting for the worst or an emergency to happen is a good way to live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:29:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 08:23:00 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:10:38 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 08:06:29 PM
I didn't see your thread.
@Max Rockatansky is referring to comparison with swine flu, mexican flu, whatever else came and went without major effect.
It is anyone's guess if this is the same situation, and we'll all vaguely remember something few months from now. Or it could be a real thing at the end of the day.

The concerning thing for me as someone who has been involved in emergency Managment is that every time there is something in news like this the coverage has become increasingly alarmist in nature.  In turn it causes a lot of regular people to panic and do things like clear off shelves at stores or start doing things that grind everyday life to a halt.  Compared to some of those other diseases I listed this is by far the most panicked general response I've seen in my career.  Similarly I've seen similar escalations with natural disasters during the last two decades as well.  On the whole I don't think it is a good thing, it affects people who shouldn't be uprooting their lives and tied up a lot of emergency resources. 

Then again I could be the one who is wrong and pretty soon we'll be settling our disputes via Thunder Dome or Face the Wheel.
One thing for sure - in a month or two we'll know; one way or the other. I wish you're right, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 08:31:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:29:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 08:23:00 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:10:38 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 08:06:29 PM
I didn't see your thread.
@Max Rockatansky is referring to comparison with swine flu, mexican flu, whatever else came and went without major effect.
It is anyone's guess if this is the same situation, and we'll all vaguely remember something few months from now. Or it could be a real thing at the end of the day.

The concerning thing for me as someone who has been involved in emergency Managment is that every time there is something in news like this the coverage has become increasingly alarmist in nature.  In turn it causes a lot of regular people to panic and do things like clear off shelves at stores or start doing things that grind everyday life to a halt.  Compared to some of those other diseases I listed this is by far the most panicked general response I've seen in my career.  Similarly I've seen similar escalations with natural disasters during the last two decades as well.  On the whole I don't think it is a good thing, it affects people who shouldn't be uprooting their lives and tied up a lot of emergency resources. 

Then again I could be the one who is wrong and pretty soon we'll be settling our disputes via Thunder Dome or Face the Wheel.
One thing for sure - in a month or two we'll know; one way or the other. I wish you're right, though.

Hey, I'm always ready for a round of Thunder Dome.  Somehow I don't think Face the Wheel would go so great for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 04, 2020, 08:46:40 PM
There are reports that Pope Francis has contracted the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:51:03 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 04, 2020, 08:46:40 PM
There are reports that Pope Francis has contracted the virus.
officially, that is not the case:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pope-health/vatican-says-pope-only-has-a-cold-symptoms-not-related-to-other-pathologies-idUSKBN20Q2N3
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 04, 2020, 09:15:20 PM
Updates from Seattle:

King County has bought a motel in Kent that will be used for voluntary quarantines, but the city government is protesting over the lack of notice: https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/covid-19-isolation-site-getting-set-up-white-center/RKPEH5B42JDQBNTNIMWD7SM3HE/

Metro is spraying down all buses with a rapid sprayer every night to sanitize buses. Ridership seems to have declined as people are working from home or just driving. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/king-county-metro-to-use-backpack-sprayers-to-sanitize-buses-against-coronavirus/

Most stores are still out of hand sanitizer, sanitizing sprays, rubbing alcohol, thermometers, and masks. Several major employers (Expedia, Nordstrom, Amazon) are telling employees to work from home when possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 04, 2020, 09:22:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 04, 2020, 08:23:00 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 08:10:38 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 04, 2020, 08:06:29 PM
I didn't see your thread.
@Max Rockatansky is referring to comparison with swine flu, mexican flu, whatever else came and went without major effect.
It is anyone's guess if this is the same situation, and we'll all vaguely remember something few months from now. Or it could be a real thing at the end of the day.

The concerning thing for me as someone who has been involved in emergency Managment is that every time there is something in news like this the coverage has become increasingly alarmist in nature.  In turn it causes a lot of regular people to panic and do things like clear off shelves at stores or start doing things that grind everyday life to a halt.

People in my area are losing their shit. I went to Walmart Neighborhood Market today to pick up a couple of things and the place was a madhouse. Every open checkout had lines backed up with carts packed, half of which was jugs and bottles of water. You'd think a hurricane was in the forecast. Walmart's gas station was getting sucked dry as well, especially since it usually has the cheapest gas in town ($1.78 today).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 04, 2020, 09:31:21 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/california-declares-emergency-over-coronavirus-as-death-toll-rises-in-u-s-idUSKBN20R28H




https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-california/california-governor-declares-state-of-emergency-over-coronavirus-idUSKBN20S02B




Update now the Entire state of California has declared a statewide emergency in Response to COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 09:38:47 PM
I've seen a number of people post that certsin high level people ask if the flu shot would help against the virus. Those people laugh and basically can't believe how dumb they are for asking the question.

In the meantime, I'm thinking to myself: You know what else the flu shot hasn't prevented? The flu! Way too often do we hear how the flu shot isn't protecting against the strain that is going around, and the number of people that get the flu shot and get very sick or die is staggering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 09:45:30 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 09:38:47 PM
I've seen a number of people post that certsin high level people ask if the flu shot would help against the virus. Those people laugh and basically can't believe how dumb they are for asking the question.

In the meantime, I'm thinking to myself: You know what else the flu shot hasn't prevented? The flu! Way too often do we hear how the flu shot isn't protecting against the strain that is going around, and the number of people that get the flu shot and get very sick or die is staggering.
Its almost openly said that annual flu shots are pushed in order to support vaccine manufacturing capability, not for health effects.
As a matter of fact, none of EU countries recommends blanket US style vaccinations for everyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 04, 2020, 10:47:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 09:45:30 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 09:38:47 PM
I've seen a number of people post that certsin high level people ask if the flu shot would help against the virus. Those people laugh and basically can't believe how dumb they are for asking the question.

In the meantime, I'm thinking to myself: You know what else the flu shot hasn't prevented? The flu! Way too often do we hear how the flu shot isn't protecting against the strain that is going around, and the number of people that get the flu shot and get very sick or die is staggering.
Its almost openly said that annual flu shots are pushed in order to support vaccine manufacturing capability, not for health effects.
As a matter of fact, none of EU countries recommends blanket US style vaccinations for everyone.
This is nonsense.  It's to protect those who can't be vaccinated or are more susceptible to the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 05, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
Quote from: Rothman on March 04, 2020, 10:47:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 09:45:30 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 09:38:47 PM
I've seen a number of people post that certsin high level people ask if the flu shot would help against the virus. Those people laugh and basically can't believe how dumb they are for asking the question.

In the meantime, I'm thinking to myself: You know what else the flu shot hasn't prevented? The flu! Way too often do we hear how the flu shot isn't protecting against the strain that is going around, and the number of people that get the flu shot and get very sick or die is staggering.
Its almost openly said that annual flu shots are pushed in order to support vaccine manufacturing capability, not for health effects.
As a matter of fact, none of EU countries recommends blanket US style vaccinations for everyone.
This is nonsense.  It's to protect those who can't be vaccinated or are more susceptible to the flu.
Thing is, herd immunity - that is the effect you're talking about - is pretty real, and is a does work.
Problem is that not all vaccines (and all infections) are created equal. Flu vaccine, in particular, has a very low efficiency, well below 50% on average. This is CDC data, I am not making things up. Just for comparison, one dose of MMR vaccine is 93% effective against measles, 78% effective against mumps, and 97% effective against rubella - and there are multiple doses. Herd effect requires efficiencies in 90s to work.
So there is no herd immunity for flu vaccine - and this argument doesn't hold water. If it was the primary reasons, vaccinations would be called off once efficiency falls below certain threshold. I do rememeber though CDC specifically calling for continuing vaccinations when vaccine was especially bad and efficiency fell below 20%. So.. Nope, that is not the reason for flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 05, 2020, 01:00:34 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 03, 2020, 09:34:32 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 03, 2020, 08:51:43 PM
So two people at NYSDOT's Buffalo office came back from Northern Italy with symptoms and went into work as if nothing was happening.

Ugh.  If this is true, it shows how much priorities are out of whack.  NYSDOT employees accrue ample sick leave.

But, if it is just a rumor coming from jerk employees, that's another matter.

The two people from Buffalo tested negative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 05, 2020, 01:25:27 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 05, 2020, 01:00:34 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 03, 2020, 09:34:32 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 03, 2020, 08:51:43 PM
So two people at NYSDOT's Buffalo office came back from Northern Italy with symptoms and went into work as if nothing was happening.

Ugh.  If this is true, it shows how much priorities are out of whack.  NYSDOT employees accrue ample sick leave.

But, if it is just a rumor coming from jerk employees, that's another matter.

The two people from Buffalo tested negative.

Good.

And as to Rothman's comment, while it's true government employees get a lot of sick time, there's also just as many that abuse that time.  Some people, such as me, have hoards of time.  Some others, like a few coworkers of mine, could find themselves without any time by the end of this month!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 05, 2020, 02:08:02 PM
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/health/gov-lee-tennessee-has-first-confirmed-case-of-covid-19/51-1ea8f0c3-ee61-4dc2-83a4-e686e556b21f (https://www.wbir.com/article/news/health/gov-lee-tennessee-has-first-confirmed-case-of-covid-19/51-1ea8f0c3-ee61-4dc2-83a4-e686e556b21f)


Tennessee has announced a confirmed case of COVID-19 as of today and more COVID-19 investigations in the Tri-state area.


https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/2-more-covid-19-cases-in-ny-brings-total-to-13-community-spread-eyed-in-possible-nj-case-as-state-awaits-tests/2313298/ (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/2-more-covid-19-cases-in-ny-brings-total-to-13-community-spread-eyed-in-possible-nj-case-as-state-awaits-tests/2313298/)


https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/williamson/franklin/2020/03/05/coronavirus-case-williamson-county-schools/4963281002/ (https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/williamson/franklin/2020/03/05/coronavirus-case-williamson-county-schools/4963281002/)


https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/northwestern-announces-international-spring-break-trips-canceled-amid-covid-19-concerns/ (https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/northwestern-announces-international-spring-break-trips-canceled-amid-covid-19-concerns/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on March 05, 2020, 03:48:46 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 05, 2020, 02:08:02 PM
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/health/gov-lee-tennessee-has-first-confirmed-case-of-covid-19/51-1ea8f0c3-ee61-4dc2-83a4-e686e556b21f (https://www.wbir.com/article/news/health/gov-lee-tennessee-has-first-confirmed-case-of-covid-19/51-1ea8f0c3-ee61-4dc2-83a4-e686e556b21f)


Tennessee has announced a confirmed case of COVID-19 as of today and more COVID-19 investigations in the Tri-state area.


https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/2-more-covid-19-cases-in-ny-brings-total-to-13-community-spread-eyed-in-possible-nj-case-as-state-awaits-tests/2313298/ (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/2-more-covid-19-cases-in-ny-brings-total-to-13-community-spread-eyed-in-possible-nj-case-as-state-awaits-tests/2313298/)


https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/williamson/franklin/2020/03/05/coronavirus-case-williamson-county-schools/4963281002/ (https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/williamson/franklin/2020/03/05/coronavirus-case-williamson-county-schools/4963281002/)


https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/northwestern-announces-international-spring-break-trips-canceled-amid-covid-19-concerns/ (https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/northwestern-announces-international-spring-break-trips-canceled-amid-covid-19-concerns/)
Florida has another case reported; this time in Santa Rosa County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 05, 2020, 04:36:26 PM
Quote from: kevinb1994 on March 05, 2020, 03:48:46 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 05, 2020, 02:08:02 PM
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/health/gov-lee-tennessee-has-first-confirmed-case-of-covid-19/51-1ea8f0c3-ee61-4dc2-83a4-e686e556b21f (https://www.wbir.com/article/news/health/gov-lee-tennessee-has-first-confirmed-case-of-covid-19/51-1ea8f0c3-ee61-4dc2-83a4-e686e556b21f)


Tennessee has announced a confirmed case of COVID-19 as of today and more COVID-19 investigations in the Tri-state area.


https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/2-more-covid-19-cases-in-ny-brings-total-to-13-community-spread-eyed-in-possible-nj-case-as-state-awaits-tests/2313298/ (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/2-more-covid-19-cases-in-ny-brings-total-to-13-community-spread-eyed-in-possible-nj-case-as-state-awaits-tests/2313298/)


https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/williamson/franklin/2020/03/05/coronavirus-case-williamson-county-schools/4963281002/ (https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/williamson/franklin/2020/03/05/coronavirus-case-williamson-county-schools/4963281002/)


https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/northwestern-announces-international-spring-break-trips-canceled-amid-covid-19-concerns/ (https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/northwestern-announces-international-spring-break-trips-canceled-amid-covid-19-concerns/)
Florida has another case reported; this time in Santa Rosa County.
With 51 new cases today in US, list should fill up pretty quickly. NY doubled from 11 to 22 overnight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 05, 2020, 08:32:56 PM
https://www.ktnv.com/news/potential-case-of-novel-coronavirus-in-nevada-reported-by-website-health-district-to-respond (https://www.ktnv.com/news/potential-case-of-novel-coronavirus-in-nevada-reported-by-website-health-district-to-respond)




https://www.kktv.com/content/news/BREAKING--568535251.html




Update the CDC has announced a series of investigations of COVID-19 in Nevada and Colorado.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 05, 2020, 10:06:13 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 05, 2020, 01:25:27 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 05, 2020, 01:00:34 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 03, 2020, 09:34:32 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 03, 2020, 08:51:43 PM
So two people at NYSDOT's Buffalo office came back from Northern Italy with symptoms and went into work as if nothing was happening.

Ugh.  If this is true, it shows how much priorities are out of whack.  NYSDOT employees accrue ample sick leave.

But, if it is just a rumor coming from jerk employees, that's another matter.

The two people from Buffalo tested negative.

Good.

And as to Rothman's comment, while it's true government employees get a lot of sick time, there's also just as many that abuse that time.  Some people, such as me, have hoards of time.  Some others, like a few coworkers of mine, could find themselves without any time by the end of this month!
All that still comes back to them not having the time or not taking the time for a lot of wrong reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 05, 2020, 10:06:28 PM
https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/03/05/judge-lina-hidalgo-addresses-covid-19-preparedness-in-harris-county/ (https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/03/05/judge-lina-hidalgo-addresses-covid-19-preparedness-in-harris-county/)




https://www.npr.org/2020/03/05/812716959/maryland-confirms-3-coronavirus-cases-as-covid-19-spreads-in-other-states (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/05/812716959/maryland-confirms-3-coronavirus-cases-as-covid-19-spreads-in-other-states)


Maryland and Texas has announced a COVID-19 investigation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 05, 2020, 10:36:48 PM
I think it's fair to assume that every major metro area will have cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 05, 2020, 10:45:04 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B20lzgwf-90 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B20lzgwf-90)




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEiy4E_jXLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEiy4E_jXLM)


Update Ontario and Alberta has announced a COVID-19 investigation in Canada.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 06, 2020, 09:16:07 AM
https://www.kolotv.com/content/news/Presumptive-coronavirus-test-for-Washoe-County-man-568549991.html




https://www.ktvn.com/story/41860886/huffaker-elementary-closed-friday-due-to-increase-in-influenzalike-symptoms




Update Washoe County has announced a COVID-19 investigation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 05, 2020, 10:36:48 PM
I think it's fair to assume that every major metro area will have cases
The way things go, there will be 1 million sick people in the world by the end of the month, a few thousand in US - maybe tens thousands. Stay calm and wash your hands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:36:25 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200306/01878269c3e6de14e732aa96044c8425.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200306/d4d94ecdd92968520cd348c51c791daa.jpg)

I've been handing these out to businesses & restaurants in Philly & Delaware.

Please people stay calm. Some of yall made it through worse events.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
One thing I hope this event brings is...

1.More Respect for Healthcare & stocking piling supplies for our country, Medical & etc.

2.Making china respect healthcode & environmental laws.

3.Common sense. COMMON SENSE.

4.More funding for WHO/CDC & any other health program.

5.It would be good to note that people still Die from STD's other viruses & life everyday.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 06, 2020, 10:59:52 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
One thing I hope this event brings is...

1.More Respect for Healthcare & stocking piling supplies for our country, Medical & etc.

2.Making china respect healthcode & environmental laws.

3.Common sense. COMMON SENSE.

4.More funding for WHO/CDC & any other health program.

5.It would be good to note that people still Die from STD's other viruses & life everyday.


iPhone

More than likely people on a general won't even level won't even remember much if anything, that's kind of human nature to do.  It happens that way with natural disasters or really much of anything notable in the news. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
One thing I hope this event brings is...

1.More Respect for Healthcare & stocking piling supplies for our country, Medical & etc.

2.Making china respect healthcode & environmental laws.

3.Common sense. COMMON SENSE.

4.More funding for WHO/CDC & any other health program.

5.It would be good to note that people still Die from STD's other viruses & life everyday.


iPhone
1. CDC failed MISERABLY. Respect should be earned, not begged for. Healthcare system needs some people fired. And I don't mean HR style firing, I mean old style one with a good firing squad.
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.
3. No way. We have democracy instead.
4. More efficiency in spending funds, you mean?
5. Life is an STD disease, inevitably leading to a fatal outcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 11:40:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 06, 2020, 10:59:52 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
One thing I hope this event brings is...

1.More Respect for Healthcare & stocking piling supplies for our country, Medical & etc.

2.Making china respect healthcode & environmental laws.

3.Common sense. COMMON SENSE.

4.More funding for WHO/CDC & any other health program.

5.It would be good to note that people still Die from STD's other viruses & life everyday.


iPhone

More than likely people on a general won't even level won't even remember much if anything, that's kind of human nature to do.  It happens that way with natural disasters or really much of anything notable in the news.
The only time I can see this country did vast changes was after 9/11


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 11:42:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
One thing I hope this event brings is...

1.More Respect for Healthcare & stocking piling supplies for our country, Medical & etc.

2.Making china respect healthcode & environmental laws.

3.Common sense. COMMON SENSE.

4.More funding for WHO/CDC & any other health program.

5.It would be good to note that people still Die from STD's other viruses & life everyday.


iPhone
1. CDC failed MISERABLY. Respect should be earned, not begged for. Healthcare system needs some people fired. And I don't mean HR style firing, I mean old style one with a good firing squad.
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.
3. No way. We have democracy instead.
4. More efficiency in spending funds, you mean?
5. Life is an STD disease, inevitably leading to a fatal outcome.

1. They did fail miserably, thats why we need to put people in there with respect & knowledge to prevent & do more. I agree with the firing squad 100%

2. Yes China has shown us all what to do. Lock people in their homes & burn the bodies.....

3. Oh yes I forgot the real people that run the country. The trailer trash mentality

4. Yes thats true. I forgot those programs are ACTUALLY funded.

5. I never thought of that before


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:56:55 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 11:42:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
One thing I hope this event brings is...

1.More Respect for Healthcare & stocking piling supplies for our country, Medical & etc.

2.Making china respect healthcode & environmental laws.

3.Common sense. COMMON SENSE.

4.More funding for WHO/CDC & any other health program.

5.It would be good to note that people still Die from STD's other viruses & life everyday.


iPhone
1. CDC failed MISERABLY. Respect should be earned, not begged for. Healthcare system needs some people fired. And I don't mean HR style firing, I mean old style one with a good firing squad.
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.
3. No way. We have democracy instead.
4. More efficiency in spending funds, you mean?
5. Life is an STD disease, inevitably leading to a fatal outcome.

1. They did fail miserably, thats why we need to put people in there with respect & knowledge to prevent & do more. I agree with the firing squad 100%

2. Yes China has shown us all what to do. Lock people in their homes & burn the bodies.....

3. Oh yes I forgot the real people that run the country. The trailer trash mentality

4. Yes thats true. I forgot those programs are ACTUALLY funded.

5. I never thought of that before


iPhone
1. Professionals don't come out of thin air. ANy idea who would be  "put" in place?
2. There is very little else you can do. If you look around, people are unhappy with minimal steps - like limiting travel or meetings. Look no further than this thread.
3. Yes, real people who are not prepared to act. Democratic procedures defeating common sense. Less taxes, more spending..
4. How much you are willing to shell out for that in YOUR 1040? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 12:06:52 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:56:55 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 11:42:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
One thing I hope this event brings is...

1.More Respect for Healthcare & stocking piling supplies for our country, Medical & etc.

2.Making china respect healthcode & environmental laws.

3.Common sense. COMMON SENSE.

4.More funding for WHO/CDC & any other health program.

5.It would be good to note that people still Die from STD's other viruses & life everyday.


iPhone
1. CDC failed MISERABLY. Respect should be earned, not begged for. Healthcare system needs some people fired. And I don't mean HR style firing, I mean old style one with a good firing squad.
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.
3. No way. We have democracy instead.
4. More efficiency in spending funds, you mean?
5. Life is an STD disease, inevitably leading to a fatal outcome.

1. They did fail miserably, thats why we need to put people in there with respect & knowledge to prevent & do more. I agree with the firing squad 100%

2. Yes China has shown us all what to do. Lock people in their homes & burn the bodies.....

3. Oh yes I forgot the real people that run the country. The trailer trash mentality

4. Yes thats true. I forgot those programs are ACTUALLY funded.

5. I never thought of that before


iPhone
1. Professionals don't come out of thin air. ANy idea who would be  "put" in place?
2. There is very little else you can do. If you look around, people are unhappy with minimal steps - like limiting travel or meetings. Look no further than this thread.
3. Yes, real people who are not prepared to act. Democratic procedures defeating common sense. Less taxes, more spending..
4. How much you are willing to shell out for that in YOUR 1040?

Oh the thing is I agree with you. Those statements were more toward the fact that our country has lost common sense & doing the right thing over money.

Also im saying the CDC is actually funded. Like the only thing that the Gov seems to fund correctly.

With 7-8 Billion people on earth im sure we have more then enough qualified people to work & run the CDC


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 06, 2020, 12:29:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.

What did China do to deal with it?

Editting to add: There's a number of articles that detail what China did wrong, especially at the start of this virus.  And it would seem that if they showed how to deal with it, it wouldn't have become a world-wide issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 06, 2020, 12:56:58 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.
No, they didn't.  In fact, they were a big fat epic fail.  When the virus first emerged, instead of working to contain it, they instead decided to cover it up, arresting any doctors who wouldn't help (one later died of the virus).  Had they done things properly, it would have never left Wuhan, much less spread to the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 06, 2020, 01:08:31 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 05, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
Quote from: Rothman on March 04, 2020, 10:47:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 04, 2020, 09:45:30 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 04, 2020, 09:38:47 PM
I've seen a number of people post that certsin high level people ask if the flu shot would help against the virus. Those people laugh and basically can't believe how dumb they are for asking the question.

In the meantime, I'm thinking to myself: You know what else the flu shot hasn't prevented? The flu! Way too often do we hear how the flu shot isn't protecting against the strain that is going around, and the number of people that get the flu shot and get very sick or die is staggering.
Its almost openly said that annual flu shots are pushed in order to support vaccine manufacturing capability, not for health effects.
As a matter of fact, none of EU countries recommends blanket US style vaccinations for everyone.
This is nonsense.  It's to protect those who can't be vaccinated or are more susceptible to the flu.
Thing is, herd immunity - that is the effect you're talking about - is pretty real, and is a does work.
Problem is that not all vaccines (and all infections) are created equal. Flu vaccine, in particular, has a very low efficiency, well below 50% on average. This is CDC data, I am not making things up. Just for comparison, one dose of MMR vaccine is 93% effective against measles, 78% effective against mumps, and 97% effective against rubella - and there are multiple doses. Herd effect requires efficiencies in 90s to work.
So there is no herd immunity for flu vaccine - and this argument doesn't hold water. If it was the primary reasons, vaccinations would be called off once efficiency falls below certain threshold. I do rememeber though CDC specifically calling for continuing vaccinations when vaccine was especially bad and efficiency fell below 20%. So.. Nope, that is not the reason for flu.
I'll take the recommendations of my medical providers over your armchair analysis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 06, 2020, 01:18:20 PM
https://wpta21.com/2020/03/06/health-officials-announce-first-case-of-novel-coronavirus-covid-19/
Update Indiana has announced a COVID-19 investigation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 02:08:58 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 06, 2020, 12:29:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.

What did China do to deal with it?

Editting to add: There's a number of articles that detail what China did wrong, especially at the start of this virus.  And it would seem that if they showed how to deal with it, it wouldn't have become a world-wide issue.
There are always mistakes when people need to act without full information. People want a full action on a first warning from others - but are reluctant to do anything themselves. CDC fiasco actually proves how that works.  CHina ended up suppressing spread within their footprint. Outside world had plenty of warning, lots of information - and still allowed disease to spread. You know, China has only that much authority over actions of authorities in California.

Quote from: vdeane on March 06, 2020, 12:56:58 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
2. China showed how to deal with infection. First world countries showed how to fail it.  See 1.
No, they didn't.  In fact, they were a big fat epic fail.  When the virus first emerged, instead of working to contain it, they instead decided to cover it up, arresting any doctors who wouldn't help (one later died of the virus).  Had they done things properly, it would have never left Wuhan, much less spread to the rest of the world.
If you look at the timeline, Dr. Lee situation is... overstated. He was abused, sure, but that had little - if any - effect on the overall situation.
I would compare that directly with UCSD situation - where nCoV patient didn't get tested for a week because CDC refused to administer test, and no single whistle blower came forward. Had CDC done blanket tests as they should, US would be in single digits case count today.
On the same token, would YOU share NYSDOT confidential information if you think things are not done right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 06, 2020, 02:13:42 PM
Some of you know that I go to the University of Washington (my tagline on the left might give it away). Because an employee just tested positive this morning or last night, I am now out of school until after Spring Break:

UW cancels in-person classes amid coronavirus outbreak (http://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/university-of-washington-cancels-in-person-classes-beginning-monday/281-fcd159a9-1ea1-428b-9346-3fabe7104b7a) (from King 5 Seattle)

https://www.washington.edu/coronavirus

Not sure what about the situation will change between now and a couple weeks from now, but with winter quarter finals just around the corner, this is definitely more than a little annoying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 02:15:14 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 06, 2020, 01:08:31 PMI'll take the recommendations of my medical providers over your armchair analysis.
Which is, certainly, a very reasonable approach.
However, to put things on professional vs professional level:
this is what EU countries recommend for flu vaccination (I am doing a screenshot as direct links don't work; start from here if you want to: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/prevention-and-control/vaccination-schedule)
https://i.imgur.com/RR3jk0f.jpg
As you can see, EU policies is drastically different from US. Do you think European doctors are not professional, or you would say there is a room for discussion as they most likely have some clue and their opinion is different?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 06, 2020, 02:13:42 PM
Some of you know that I go to the University of Washington (my tagline on the left might give it away). Because an employee just tested positive this morning or last night, I am now out of school until after Spring Break:

UW cancels in-person classes amid coronavirus outbreak (http://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/university-of-washington-cancels-in-person-classes-beginning-monday/281-fcd159a9-1ea1-428b-9346-3fabe7104b7a) (from King 5 Seattle)

https://www.washington.edu/coronavirus

Not sure what about the situation will change between now and a couple weeks from now, but with winter quarter finals just around the corner, this is definitely more than a little annoying.
Distant learning -  including making all finals take-home ones - is definitely an option everyone has to look at. Less than ideal, but it is what it is.  As an advice, use the time for self-education; internet has a lot of educational resources these days. And in a few weeks, things would either settle - or we'll go to Wuhan style lockdown. One way or the other..
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 06, 2020, 02:54:56 PM
One thing this outbreak should make clear: the entire healthcare system in this country is broken and needs to be entirely replaced. Single-payer is the best way to go, because there is no incentive today for someone with mild symptoms of what could be coronavirus to visit a hospital and pay $3,000 to get tested. They will continue to spread the virus around until it is too late.

The science-phobic response from our leaders has also been, as expected, a disaster. The CDC are dropping the ball and leaving states to pick up the response. Washington's State Department of Health has had to contradict almost everything that has been said by the presidential administration for over a month by issuing corrections and trying to steer people towards the correct advice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 06, 2020, 02:58:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 02:15:14 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 06, 2020, 01:08:31 PMI'll take the recommendations of my medical providers over your armchair analysis.
Which is, certainly, a very reasonable approach.
However, to put things on professional vs professional level:
this is what EU countries recommend for flu vaccination (I am doing a screenshot as direct links don't work; start from here if you want to: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/prevention-and-control/vaccination-schedule)
https://i.imgur.com/RR3jk0f.jpg
As you can see, EU policies is drastically different from US. Do you think European doctors are not professional, or you would say there is a room for discussion as they most likely have some clue and their opinion is different?
I think the EU is far away and EU experts operate within a different context than US experts.  Surprisingly, it sounds like the flu shot is more available and affordable in the US.  Makes me wonder if the same conditions existed in the EU if their policy would be different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 03:12:11 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 06, 2020, 02:54:56 PM
One thing this outbreak should make clear: the entire healthcare system in this country is broken and needs to be entirely replaced. Single-payer is the best way to go, because there is no incentive today for someone with mild symptoms of what could be coronavirus to visit a hospital and pay $3,000 to get tested. They will continue to spread the virus around until it is too late.

"It's a shame to allow a crisis to go to waste."
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 03:20:08 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 06, 2020, 02:58:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 02:15:14 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 06, 2020, 01:08:31 PMI'll take the recommendations of my medical providers over your armchair analysis.
Which is, certainly, a very reasonable approach.
However, to put things on professional vs professional level:
this is what EU countries recommend for flu vaccination (I am doing a screenshot as direct links don't work; start from here if you want to: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/prevention-and-control/vaccination-schedule)
https://i.imgur.com/RR3jk0f.jpg
As you can see, EU policies is drastically different from US. Do you think European doctors are not professional, or you would say there is a room for discussion as they most likely have some clue and their opinion is different?
I think the EU is far away and EU experts operate within a different context than US experts.  Surprisingly, it sounds like the flu shot is more available and affordable in the US.  Makes me wonder if the same conditions existed in the EU if their policy would be different.
Coming back to coronavirus - I think it demonstrates that things are pretty connected worldwide.  I wouldn't call EU situation well different from US situation either population-wise or climate-wise.
As for costs... One of aspects of flu shots in US, it appears that it is quantity over quality. FLUAD - adjuvanted vaccine - is licensed only for those over 65 in US.  And although adjuvant is squalene-based, it is proprietary(??) one and efficiency is questioned. So in some sense, US is on the same page as EU - only those over 65 can get a real flu shot in US - and the question is how real it is anyway....
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 03:23:40 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 03:12:11 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 06, 2020, 02:54:56 PM
One thing this outbreak should make clear: the entire healthcare system in this country is broken and needs to be entirely replaced. Single-payer is the best way to go, because there is no incentive today for someone with mild symptoms of what could be coronavirus to visit a hospital and pay $3,000 to get tested. They will continue to spread the virus around until it is too late.

"It's a shame to allow a crisis to go to waste."
Well, thing is - PCR tests are pricey. and this is an interesting conflict between coronavirus being a public health emergency and cost still billed to the patient, one way or the other. Not to mention the treatment - whoever makes remdesivir is not giving it out for free.
May very well contribute to the spread as holding people by force so they can get paid service is a legal non-starter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 03:37:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 03:23:40 PMWell, thing is - PCR tests are pricey. and this is an interesting conflict between coronavirus being a public health emergency and cost still billed to the patient, one way or the other. Not to mention the treatment - whoever makes remdesivir is not giving it out for free.

May very well contribute to the spread as holding people by force so they can get paid service is a legal non-starter.

As someone who supports single-payer, I am honestly surprised we are (so far) containing coronavirus as well as we have been.  There have been glaring failures in countries that do have socialized medicine--Italy comes to mind--and I am under no illusions that socializing health care will end rationing.  But, yes, an up-front cost to seek treatment amounts to a perverse incentive that may well complicate containment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 06, 2020, 03:56:35 PM
https://www.wyff4.com/article/north-carolina-identifies-second-case-of-coronavirus-covid-19-health-officials-say/31261192 (https://www.wyff4.com/article/north-carolina-identifies-second-case-of-coronavirus-covid-19-health-officials-say/31261192)




https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-coronavirus-update-governor-covid-19/31260024 (https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-coronavirus-update-governor-covid-19/31260024)




https://kvoa.com/news/top-stories/2020/03/06/adhs-states-third-covid-19-case-in-pinal-county/ (https://kvoa.com/news/top-stories/2020/03/06/adhs-states-third-covid-19-case-in-pinal-county/)




https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/chula-vista-parent-quarantined-after-possible-exposure-to-att-worker-with-covid-19/2279971/






Here is the roundup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 06, 2020, 04:10:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 03:37:54 PM


As someone who supports single-payer, I am honestly surprised we are (so far) containing coronavirus as well as we have been.  There have been glaring failures in countries that do have socialized medicine--Italy comes to mind--and I am under no illusions that socializing health care will end rationing.  But, yes, an up-front cost to seek treatment amounts to a perverse incentive that may well complicate containment.

Maybe because not everyone believes malarkey coming from  our politicians and there are medical professionals ready to roll at the first sign of trouble? (just a thought)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 04:20:31 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 03:37:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 03:23:40 PMWell, thing is - PCR tests are pricey. and this is an interesting conflict between coronavirus being a public health emergency and cost still billed to the patient, one way or the other. Not to mention the treatment - whoever makes remdesivir is not giving it out for free.

May very well contribute to the spread as holding people by force so they can get paid service is a legal non-starter.

As someone who supports single-payer, I am honestly surprised we are (so far) containing coronavirus as well as we have been.  There have been glaring failures in countries that do have socialized medicine--Italy comes to mind--and I am under no illusions that socializing health care will end rationing.  But, yes, an up-front cost to seek treatment amounts to a perverse incentive that may well complicate containment.
I talked to my friend in France literally 15 minutes ago. He's in quarantine after travel (within EU), and developed some fever. After phone interview it was decided he doesn't deserve the test, quarantine extended by 7 days, tests are not cheap to spend them on almost healthy people...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 06, 2020, 05:05:27 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 06, 2020, 04:10:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 03:37:54 PM


As someone who supports single-payer, I am honestly surprised we are (so far) containing coronavirus as well as we have been.  There have been glaring failures in countries that do have socialized medicine--Italy comes to mind--and I am under no illusions that socializing health care will end rationing.  But, yes, an up-front cost to seek treatment amounts to a perverse incentive that may well complicate containment.

Maybe because not everyone believes malarkey coming from  our politicians and there are medical professionals ready to roll at the first sign of trouble? (just a thought)

It's extremely fortunate that one of our local hospitals (which has been receiving some coronavirus patients) ended their strike a month ago. There are still shortages in available doctors here because of cuts from the privately-run hospital systems and the number of tests available from the federal government are a drop in the bucket compared to where we should be testing. Several local nonprofit groups have had to step in and do their own testing because the CDC has been weakened so much by the current administration. It's an embarrassment to the country.

We probably have hundreds of untested cases in the Seattle area and no capacity to find them through testing until it's too late, either after a large-scale infection or death of the patient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 05:25:51 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 06, 2020, 05:05:27 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 06, 2020, 04:10:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 03:37:54 PM


As someone who supports single-payer, I am honestly surprised we are (so far) containing coronavirus as well as we have been.  There have been glaring failures in countries that do have socialized medicine--Italy comes to mind--and I am under no illusions that socializing health care will end rationing.  But, yes, an up-front cost to seek treatment amounts to a perverse incentive that may well complicate containment.

Maybe because not everyone believes malarkey coming from  our politicians and there are medical professionals ready to roll at the first sign of trouble? (just a thought)

It's extremely fortunate that one of our local hospitals (which has been receiving some coronavirus patients) ended their strike a month ago. There are still shortages in available doctors here because of cuts from the privately-run hospital systems and the number of tests available from the federal government are a drop in the bucket compared to where we should be testing. Several local nonprofit groups have had to step in and do their own testing because the CDC has been weakened so much by the current administration. It's an embarrassment to the country.

We probably have hundreds of untested cases in the Seattle area and no capacity to find them through testing until it's too late, either after a large-scale infection or death of the patient.
One thing I don't understand here... CDC proudly announced shipping out enough material to text 100k people or so. And I don't believe non-profit can make more primers, this is just something too complicated.
I
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 06, 2020, 06:43:32 PM
I still don't get on how the coronavirus has more cases than SARS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 06, 2020, 06:46:18 PM
1 Dog has contracted The virus in hong kong.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 06, 2020, 08:32:37 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 06, 2020, 04:20:31 PMI talked to my friend in France literally 15 minutes ago. He's in quarantine after travel (within EU), and developed some fever. After phone interview it was decided he doesn't deserve the test, quarantine extended by 7 days, tests are not cheap to spend them on almost healthy people...

That is pretty much what I would have expected based on my experience as a NHS patient in the UK.  Services are provided free at the point of use, so the customer expectations associated with the US fee-for-service model don't apply, and in some cases you get tough love.  One time I went to my GP with upper-back pain and was referred to a physiotherapist, who did an evaluation and concluded I did not meet the criteria for treatment; instead, I was given exercises to do.  The pain went away when I started lifting weights and got a better office chair.  Another time I came in with a sinus infection secondary to a cold, and was given an antibiotic prescription, but strongly encouraged not to fill it (in the end, I did not).

This being France, I wonder if your friend was reminded of the importance of republican solidarity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 06, 2020, 09:40:12 PM

https://kimatv.com/news/local/kcphd-declares-state-of-emergency-after-increase-of-covid-19-testing-investigations


Kittias COunty, WA has announced a COVID-19 Investigation.


https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/utah-man-released-from-hospital-still-tests-positive-for-covid-19


Utah has announced COVID-19 in their state.


https://www.whas11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/first-coronavirus-case-in-ky-confirmed/417-c3ca1243-2c3a-42bf-8c13-f3f5c6a7a48a


Kentucky Has Announced a COVID-19 investigation


https://www.lex18.com/news/covering-kentucky/covid-19-patient-is-harrison-county-resident

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 06, 2020, 09:54:02 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 06, 2020, 06:43:32 PM
I still don't get on how the coronavirus has more cases than SARS.
SARS had a tendency to kill its victims before they could spread it to too many other people.  Coronavirus doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 06, 2020, 09:56:46 PM
Hawaii just announced it's first confirmed case.

https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/gov-ige-confirms-first-case-of-coronavirus-in-hawaii/ (https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/gov-ige-confirms-first-case-of-coronavirus-in-hawaii/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 07, 2020, 01:50:54 AM
Nebraska (Douglas County) and Oklahoma (Tulsa County) have announced their first coronavirus cases as well.  The one in Nebraska is a woman who recently returned from a trip to Britain with her father.

Kansas has no confirmed cases yet, but two suspected ones are currently being tested.

When I went to bed last night, the Johns Hopkins dashboard (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) was indicating 232 confirmed US cases.  Now there are 338.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 07, 2020, 04:17:41 AM
And I believe that number is underestimated, due to uninsured people that don't want to get tested because they cannot afford to pay. The figures in countries that have public health services are more likely to be accurate, and these countries are more able to control an outbreak (but again, there may be some that have escaped). As of now there are almost 400 known cases in Spain, but that has also skyrocketed last week.
Quote from: vdeane on March 06, 2020, 09:54:02 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 06, 2020, 06:43:32 PM
I still don't get on how the coronavirus has more cases than SARS.
SARS had a tendency to kill its victims before they could spread it to too many other people.  Coronavirus doesn't.

The SARS virus was also a coronavirus. It's like "Holland" and "Netherlands".
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 07, 2020, 07:36:16 AM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Most statements made that tend to be negative towards US Healthcare policies are clearly opinion and don't line up with the facts.

Using that chart above, make note that those European countries tend to have much smaller population than the US, so the rate is much higher.

And I find it odd that most European nations suddenly have no new cases...almost as if they stopped reporting them.

Overall, any correlation between our healthcare system vs. countries with free universal healthcare isn't jiving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 07, 2020, 08:26:26 AM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on March 07, 2020, 04:17:41 AM
And I believe that number is underestimated, due to uninsured people that don't want to get tested because they cannot afford to pay. The figures in countries that have public health services are more likely to be accurate, and these countries are more able to control an outbreak (but again, there may be some that have escaped).
Again from friends in Italy - no tests until there is difficulty breathing and high fever.
Sounds like Europe just gave up
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 07, 2020, 09:21:23 AM
QuoteThe figures in countries that have public health services are more likely to be accurate, and these countries are more able to control an outbreak (but again, there may be some that have escaped). As of now there are almost 400 known cases in Spain, but that has also skyrocketed last week.

This makes no friggen sense whatsoever. Spain supposedly has a great mostly free healthcare system. You say that European countries with free healthcare can contain the virus, then state the cases are skyrocketing. What the hell is the government feeding you over there?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 07, 2020, 10:19:06 AM
https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/3-more-deaths-reported-in-covid-19-outbreak-bringing-total-to-14-in-puget-sound-region


https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/2-dead-in-florida-2-test-presumptive-positive-for-covid-19-in-broward-county/2201904/ (https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/2-dead-in-florida-2-test-presumptive-positive-for-covid-19-in-broward-county/2201904/)

Deaths from COVID-19 reported in Florida and Washington State.

https://www.wyff4.com/article/watch-live-governor-speaks-on-suspected-coronavirus-cases-in-south-carolina/31268696 (https://www.wyff4.com/article/watch-live-governor-speaks-on-suspected-coronavirus-cases-in-south-carolina/31268696)

South Carolina is now reporting COVID-19 in their state.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-u-s-more-half-all-states-have-reported-covid-n1152076 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-u-s-more-half-all-states-have-reported-covid-n1152076)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 07, 2020, 10:35:57 AM
Florida has 2 in Hillsborough, 1 in Manatee, and another in Santa Rosa.

Our Governor is placing the health department on alert, and has all toll collectors wearing rubber or nitril gloves while we handle money.  Considering some women store their money in their bras and many derelicts come through with dirty money (as dirty as their clothes) it is a sound idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 07, 2020, 10:48:12 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on March 07, 2020, 10:35:57 AM
Florida has 2 in Hillsborough, 1 in Manatee, and another in Santa Rosa.

Our Governor is placing the health department on alert, and has all toll collectors wearing rubber or nitril gloves while we handle money.  Considering some women store their money in their bras and many derelicts come through with dirty money (as dirty as their clothes) it is a sound idea.

The NJ Turnpike after the anthrax cases in NJ wanted us to wear gloves. I think I did for a week before I decided to risk my life by touching money directly. I'm glad to say I lived.

It was funny though to watch motorists put on gloves to handle money. They put on gloves, touch their wallets, touch the money, touch the steering wheel, touch their clothing, get their change, put the money in their wallet,  take the gloves off, then touch everything that the gloves had touched, meaning everything they did went for naught as the gloves simply spread the germs around anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 07, 2020, 11:26:43 AM
https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/03/07/20/vietnams-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-20 (https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/03/07/20/vietnams-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-20)






https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/03/07/20/2-apartment-buildings-in-south-korea-quarantined-over-virus (https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/03/07/20/2-apartment-buildings-in-south-korea-quarantined-over-virus)






South Korea and Vietnam are reporting their current status of COVID-19 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US 89 on March 07, 2020, 11:32:10 AM
Utah now has its first real case: it sounds like the patient got it on the Grand Princess cruise ship on its last voyage to Mexico but didn't start displaying symptoms until recently. Who knows how many people he might have given it to between then and now. The only information released about the patient is that it's a 60+ year old person from Davis County; they didn't even announce gender (although the governor referred to the patient as "he" multiple times in the press conference last night).

Ironically the state found out about this just hours after they had declared a state of emergency yesterday afternoon in order to prepare for potential cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 07, 2020, 11:49:17 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 07, 2020, 10:48:12 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on March 07, 2020, 10:35:57 AM
Florida has 2 in Hillsborough, 1 in Manatee, and another in Santa Rosa.

Our Governor is placing the health department on alert, and has all toll collectors wearing rubber or nitril gloves while we handle money.  Considering some women store their money in their bras and many derelicts come through with dirty money (as dirty as their clothes) it is a sound idea.

The NJ Turnpike after the anthrax cases in NJ wanted us to wear gloves. I think I did for a week before I decided to risk my life by touching money directly. I'm glad to say I lived.

It was funny though to watch motorists put on gloves to handle money. They put on gloves, touch their wallets, touch the money, touch the steering wheel, touch their clothing, get their change, put the money in their wallet,  take the gloves off, then touch everything that the gloves had touched, meaning everything they did went for naught as the gloves simply spread the germs around anyway.
We are to not take them off until we leave the booths and supposed to sterilize the counters before we leave with Clorox wipes they give us in the booth.

However, life is a chance and if you are going to get sick, you are going to get sick.  However, touching the face is where it transmits the most.   Many of us cannot help touching our face to scratch some part of it and with me I love the scratch around my eyes which is where germs can enter your body the most.

I still do not like to touch grungy money though especially when I know that some point it could be inside a girl's private area as back in the day I remember girls loved to grab their tips with their genitals in the NYC strip clubs and in Orlando (back when Seminole County permitted nudity) when I was younger.  Plus seeing guys drive up to the booth in cars barely running, the windows don't work (as they open the door that has also a broken spring to slow it down while opening), the inside of the cars  are trash can looking, and the hygiene of the driver (usually a dirty man with t shirt and jeans),  I do not want what is on their money that is all crumbled up or coins that have shit on them to touch my skin.  Even with gloves I use Purel on the glove as well.

After collecting tolls I finally get to see what the real world is like. Too bad our leaders cannot see this, as IMO our politicians should collect tolls and they would see the real America by the way people act when they drive, as most Americans have to drive and the one's who are loners use driving as a way to keep busy. We road enthusiasts are not the only ones who drive for pleasure as most of the drivers in Polk County look like they have no place to go and ride around hoping something productive will come to them.   Plus many drivers I see live in their cars as some have all their belongings piled up in the front and back seat with pillows and blankets among them, so some do not bathe for lack of a shower and let germs contaminate them.

As far as germs go, yes the body can immune itself to it after a while, hence in the Domincan Republic you have people in one village share a drinking cup, and fork and not get sick at all from engaging in fluid transfer.  If you spend your whole life sharing a tooth brush also your body would adapt as well.  We have spoiled ourselves so much with modern means we made ourselves so open for attack inside of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 07, 2020, 11:55:08 AM
The NBA has just issued a statement on COVID-19 Concerns and their precautions.


https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28853879/nba-tells-teams-plan-chance-games-fans-amid-coronavirus-concerns



https://www.nba.com/warriors/news/statement-coronavirus-concerns-20200306





Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 07, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
I think a lot is panic and panic is the worst.  We need to remain calm.  The worst part is that it has to happen in an election year when the election is super crucial due to this country dividing more than it ever has been.  So both sides naturally are going to use it as who has the best plan to cure the disease and use it for votes.  Of course to get one on your side one has to play on natural fears like a home security sales person or a lawyer using Mesofalmieonia to get clients being their is an epidemic on that one as one manufacturer did not follow safety guidelines making one of their products.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 07, 2020, 12:05:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 07, 2020, 09:21:23 AMThis makes no friggen sense whatsoever. Spain supposedly has a great mostly free healthcare system. You say that European countries with free healthcare can contain the virus, then state the cases are skyrocketing. What the hell is the government feeding you over there?!

I understand the argument he is trying to make:  compared to the US, confirmed cases in Europe are high and increasing fast because there is no perverse incentive (such as deductibles and co-pays) for people who might have coronavirus not to get tested.

I don't think this is necessarily the whole story.  Gatekeeping does occur in Europe--the patient's financial resources are just not used as the basis for it--and in some parts of the US, there is little evidence of the spread of coronavirus beyond middle-class people with the resources for cruises, international air travel, and so on.  (Nebraska's one case so far is a woman who recently returned from visiting Britain with her father.)

Quote from: kalvado on March 07, 2020, 08:26:26 AMAgain from friends in Italy - no tests until there is difficulty breathing and high fever.

Sounds like Europe just gave up

There is certainly pessimism in many European countries about whether the virus can still be contained.  Officials in both Britain and France have hinted that they are transitioning to strategies of trying to limit spread.  "Until the summer" is the phrase that has been used in Britain, which suggests to me that they are trying to wait out the heating season in case they have to house respiratory patients in temporary tent hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 07, 2020, 12:26:40 PM
I have learned one thing and that is do not trust social media or the news!  Not defending arguments about Conservative babble about a fake news, as my opinion I have learned is that everything is all hype these days.  We live in a world where we gossip more than ever due to cell phones and the web, so news travels fast and also is distorted along the way.

I look at it this way, cancer kills, the flu kills, and even other ailments kill, yet we are treating this like its the first fatal disease since either ape became man or Adam popped into existence (whichever way you believe humanity started). 

Something has got to kill us and there is no guarantee that we all are supposed to live to near 100.  We need to live our lives and not worry about another illness of among many out there that can be fatal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 07, 2020, 12:59:38 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on March 07, 2020, 12:26:40 PM
I have learned one thing and that is do not trust social media or the news!  Not defending arguments about Conservative babble about a fake news, as my opinion I have learned is that everything is all hype these days.  We live in a world where we gossip more than ever due to cell phones and the web, so news travels fast and also is distorted along the way.

I look at it this way, cancer kills, the flu kills, and even other ailments kill, yet we are treating this like its the first fatal disease since either ape became man or Adam popped into existence (whichever way you believe humanity started). 

Something has got to kill us and there is no guarantee that we all are supposed to live to near 100.  We need to live our lives and not worry about another illness of among many out there that can be fatal.
Pecularity of this situation - coronavirus is a big unknown. It can boil down to just another flu; it can boil down to another black death. Seasonal flu, cancer, road accidents - those are known evils, they have been with us for the entire life, we know what to expect.
My bet this would be something to remember, like Katrina or Sandy. Not the end of the world, but not another flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 07, 2020, 05:42:54 PM

https://q13fox.com/2020/03/07/washington-state-coronavirus-cases-top-100-including-16-deaths/


16 deaths in connection to COVID-19 in Washington State


https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/06/most-of-canadas-recent-new-cases-of-covid-19-are-linked-to-the-us/#5cd2f7e65886




https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/more-than-half-of-all-us-states-have-reported-covid-19-cases/ar-BB10RNBw?li=BBnb7Kz


https://abc7news.com/5993818/




https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/tri-state-at-49-covid-19-cases-and-counting-as-nationwide-death-toll-climbs-to-17/2316253/


https://www.nbcnews.com/video/pence-holds-coronavirus-meeting-says-covid-19-tests-are-available-for-any-american-80240709908






https://www.ketv.com/article/several-fremont-schools-businesses-closed-out-of-precaution-to-covid-19/31270005




https://www.kdrv.com/content/news/First-presumptive-case-of-COVID-19-in-southern-Oregon-found-in-Klamath-County-568592251.html




https://www.kptv.com/news/four-new-presumptive-covid--cases-confirmed-in-oregon/article_6b58cd8a-60ab-11ea-87e9-63b9b699f156.html




Here is the Roundup
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 07, 2020, 05:45:07 PM
https://www.wtoc.com/2020/03/07/three-new-covid-cases-identified-georgia/


https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/07/stanford-medicine-faculty-member-tests-positive-for-covid-19/




https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/06/minnesota-confirms-first-case-of-covid19-virus (https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/06/minnesota-confirms-first-case-of-covid19-virus)




Here is more on the COVID-19 fallout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 07, 2020, 06:03:15 PM
https://www.sacbee.com/community/elk-grove/article240994046.html (https://www.sacbee.com/community/elk-grove/article240994046.html)




https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article240958076.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article240958076.html)




https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article240961736.html




Here is the fallout COVID-19 in the Sacramento area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 07, 2020, 09:03:46 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51784167 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51784167)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-hotel-collapse/about-30-still-trapped-after-chinese-coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-collapses-idUSKBN20U0LW?il=0   (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-hotel-collapse/about-30-still-trapped-after-chinese-coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-collapses-idUSKBN20U0LW?il=0)
Coronavirus Quarantine area in China has collapsed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 02 Park Ave on March 07, 2020, 09:23:43 PM
As you will be aware from the news, coronavirus is a respiratory disease which seems to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough. These symptoms do not necessarily mean one has the illness, particularly as its early stages are similar to those of much more common viruses, such as colds and flu. After a week, it leads to shortness of breath and some patients require hospital treatment. Those particularly vulnerable to it are those who are older or with pre-existing diseases like cancer, diabetes, heart disease or lung disease.

If coughing or sneezing, to disrupt the spread of the virus:
Catch it - sneeze into a tissue.
Bin it - bin the tissue.
Kill it - wash your hands thoroughly for the length of time it takes to sing the U.K. national anthem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 07, 2020, 09:30:55 PM
It was kind of nice going off grid today off-roading and ghost town hunting.  Even if it was half the day it was nice not to hear Virus-this-and-that.  I know a couple people who have cancelled trips (granted when they asked me I told them not to) and had to eat the lost money (travel insurance pays for itself sometimes).  I've been fielding a lot of employee questions on what to do, it really isn't too dissimilar to what anyone ought to be doing regarding basic sanitation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 07, 2020, 10:04:09 PM
Missouri has reported its first COVID-19 case- in Saint Louis County.
https://www.kmov.com/news/first-missouri-covid--case-confirmed-in-st-louis-county/article_039df6e6-60d5-11ea-b21c-73e9e9f251b7.html (https://www.kmov.com/news/first-missouri-covid--case-confirmed-in-st-louis-county/article_039df6e6-60d5-11ea-b21c-73e9e9f251b7.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 07, 2020, 10:32:31 PM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on March 07, 2020, 04:17:41 AM
Quote from: vdeane on March 06, 2020, 09:54:02 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 06, 2020, 06:43:32 PM
I still don't get on how the coronavirus has more cases than SARS.
SARS had a tendency to kill its victims before they could spread it to too many other people.  Coronavirus doesn't.

The SARS virus was also a coronavirus. It's like "Holland" and "Netherlands".
At least in the US, nobody cares about the technicality.  "Coronavirus" is used colloquially to refer specifically to this outbreak.

To update what I originally posted, I was reading today that there was one other distinction between SARS and the coronavirus people colloquially call coronavirus that causes the latter to spread so much more: SARS could only spread when a person was showing symptoms, not before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 07, 2020, 11:06:44 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 07, 2020, 10:32:31 PM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on March 07, 2020, 04:17:41 AMThe SARS virus was also a coronavirus. It's like "Holland" and "Netherlands".

At least in the US, nobody cares about the technicality.  "Coronavirus" is used colloquially to refer specifically to this outbreak.

To update what I originally posted, I was reading today that there was one other distinction between SARS and the coronavirus people colloquially call coronavirus that causes the latter to spread so much more: SARS could only spread when a person was showing symptoms, not before.

Notwithstanding the agents for both SARS and COVID-19 being both bat coronaviruses, there is one other respect in which I hope the two diseases are different:  SARS survivors are at greatly elevated risk of bone tissue necrosis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 08, 2020, 12:35:07 AM
338 cases in the US yesterday, 429 now.  States/state-level jurisdictions announcing their first confirmed cases today include DC, VA, SC, MO, UT, and KS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 08, 2020, 09:12:14 AM
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/where-coronvirus-bay-area-covid-19-santa-clara-15103180.php (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/where-coronvirus-bay-area-covid-19-santa-clara-15103180.php)




An Update a Ship reported to have infected COVID-19 victims could head to the Port of Oakland on Monday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 08, 2020, 01:16:34 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 08, 2020, 09:12:14 AM
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/where-coronvirus-bay-area-covid-19-santa-clara-15103180.php (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/where-coronvirus-bay-area-covid-19-santa-clara-15103180.php)




An Update a Ship reported to have infected COVID-19 victims could head to the Port of Oakland on Monday.
Grand Princess - gotta wonder about those princess ships.  They're medusas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 08, 2020, 02:09:18 PM
Cruise ships are just all around awful for everyone and everything. It's like tolerating toxic sludge.

They pollute and don't have a real economic justification unlike planes and cargo ships; the small towns they stop at aren't benefiting much if at all; the ships are staffed with underpaid and exploited workers while skirting employment laws by using different ports of registry; they harm the marine life they pass over and often dump waste into the water without proper treatment; and finally, they are a paradise for diseases like norovirus and COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 08, 2020, 02:11:31 PM
At the moment it is looking like DFW (7.5 million) and Detroit (4.3 million) are the two largest US metropolitan areas that still do not have any confirmed COVID-19 cases (2018 estimated MSA populations in parentheses).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 08, 2020, 02:33:53 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 08, 2020, 02:09:18 PM
Cruise ships are just all around awful for everyone and everything. It's like tolerating toxic sludge.

They pollute and don't have a real economic justification unlike planes and cargo ships; the small towns they stop at aren't benefiting much if at all; the ships are staffed with underpaid and exploited workers while skirting employment laws by using different ports of registry; they harm the marine life they pass over and often dump waste into the water without proper treatment; and finally, they are a paradise for diseases like norovirus and COVID-19.
I agree with you with Cruise ships you are there for days or weeks depending on the trip. With airplanes in contrast you are there for a few hours to 1 day depending on the Trip. I fear Cruise ships more than planes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 08, 2020, 02:37:09 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 08, 2020, 02:09:18 PM
Cruise ships are just all around awful for everyone and everything. It's like tolerating toxic sludge.

They pollute and don't have a real economic justification unlike planes and cargo ships; the small towns they stop at aren't benefiting much if at all; the ships are staffed with underpaid and exploited workers while skirting employment laws by using different ports of registry; they harm the marine life they pass over and often dump waste into the water without proper treatment; and finally, they are a paradise for diseases like norovirus and COVID-19.

I have a few friends who go on cruises every year, but it's not something that interests me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 08, 2020, 03:11:49 PM
They're giant petri dishes as it is.  Not to say that nothing else is one - large businesses, planes, mega conferences (like SXSW), etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 08, 2020, 03:48:30 PM
https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/italy-announces-quarantine-affecting-quarter-population-20200308.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 08, 2020, 04:01:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 08, 2020, 03:48:30 PM
https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/italy-announces-quarantine-affecting-quarter-population-20200308.html
too little too late
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 08, 2020, 04:01:33 PM
Moderator Note:

All - stop posting to just post links! Let's not make this thread a further link farm!  Please focus on discussion of the situation and if you have links that back-up said discussion, that would be appropriate to include then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 08, 2020, 04:07:11 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 08, 2020, 03:11:49 PM
They're giant petri dishes as it is.  Not to say that nothing else is one - large businesses, planes, mega conferences (like SXSW), etc. 

SCA /Historical Reenactor gatherings:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 12:03:14 AM
As of now (shortly after 11 PM Central time), the US has 554 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 09, 2020, 12:11:47 AM
I'm still worried about it.

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 09, 2020, 12:22:35 AM
Having the movie theater almost to myself on a Saturday night was nice.  The drink line only had four people, that's about what I see during a midday movie.  Seems the crowds are staying at home given Fresno had a confirmed virus hit the other day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 12:26:50 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 12:03:14 AM
As of now (shortly after 11 PM Central time), the US has 554 cases.
expect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of may. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 12:50:04 AM
This week, I ate at 2 restaurants with waiting lists, and stopped in a bowling alley that had a wait for open lanes. The gym and other stores appeared to have normal occupancies as well. Even though there was a confirmed case just a few miles away, I haven't seen any inclination that it's disrupting how my area goes about their day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 10:55:18 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
What kind of containment do you want? Closed bridges to Manhattan (NYS is leading by case count in US, you know) with armed checkpoints?
Step 1 - preventing infection from entering the country - failed; but not enough cases to establish quarantine. Not that it would truly help anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 11:00:12 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 12:26:50 AMExpect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 09, 2020, 11:32:51 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
Hence why I'm worried about the coronavirus

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: gonealookin on March 09, 2020, 11:56:54 AM
I'm on a long-scheduled vacation and am not changing anything.  Have gone to some spring training baseball games and a college basketball game here in Arizona, have eaten in crowded restaurants, am getting on a plane tomorrow, actually a couple planes, to head to Florida for some beach time.  Yeah, on the Southwest flights I'll head to the back of the plane because there are more likely to be empty seats back there, but that's what I always do anyway.

Aside from getting barraged by this news from the TVs in the breakfast room at the hotel every morning, there's no noticeable impact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 09, 2020, 12:29:43 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 09, 2020, 11:32:51 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
Hence why I'm worried about the coronavirus

LGL322DL



Don't worry, be happy  ;o)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 09, 2020, 12:44:54 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 09, 2020, 12:29:43 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 09, 2020, 11:32:51 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
Hence why I'm worried about the coronavirus

LGL322DL



Don't worry, be happy  ;o)

There is no point sitting around worrying about getting sick.  Anyone could in theory end up getting killed from an endless number of afflictions or incidents pretty much at any time.  It seems totally pointless to alter one's life or at least stew about a disease that you probably won't get. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 09, 2020, 12:48:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 09, 2020, 12:44:54 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 09, 2020, 12:29:43 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 09, 2020, 11:32:51 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
Hence why I'm worried about the coronavirus

LGL322DL



Don't worry, be happy  ;o)

There is no point sitting around worrying about getting sick.  Anyone could in theory end up getting killed from an endless number of afflictions or incidents pretty much at any time.  It seems totally pointless to alter one's life or at least stew about a disease that you probably won't get. 

I am concerned, but not worried...yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 09, 2020, 12:53:35 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 09, 2020, 12:48:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 09, 2020, 12:44:54 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 09, 2020, 12:29:43 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 09, 2020, 11:32:51 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
Hence why I'm worried about the coronavirus

LGL322DL



Don't worry, be happy  ;o)

There is no point sitting around worrying about getting sick.  Anyone could in theory end up getting killed from an endless number of afflictions or incidents pretty much at any time.  It seems totally pointless to alter one's life or at least stew about a disease that you probably won't get. 

I am concerned, but not worried...yet.

I'm worried about people overreacting and causing issues.  Case and point the mass clear of disinfectant cleaning supplies at retail stores and those masks so many are wearing.  What usually is a general public safety concern be it real or not becomes a problem for me in terms of what I do for a living.  To that end, I haven't really much compelling evidence to do much beyond monitoring what is going on. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 01:06:36 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.

Have you put yourself into self-quarantine yet?  You seem to be quite worried about the virus, yet if you're expecting the government to tell you what to do rather than you just doing things yourself, that's ultimately part of the problem.  Many people want less government, but then overly rely on the government to tell them how to live day-to-day.

There's also people that expect unreasonable restrictions.  I saw on one group someone complaining that all flights into the US from Italy should be required to go into Quarantine for 2 weeks.

A) Where would you house, feed, medicate and just maintain decent living standards for thousands of people every day for 2 weeks?

B) There's only a specific section of Italy that is experiencing very significant effects of the virus.  So if a flight comes in from a non-quarantined area, does the US and every other country need to compensate for that?

C) Those people are 'escaping' Italy's quarantined area if they want to.  So if Italy can't contain them, and they make it to other countries and fly to the US, how exactly is the US supposed to stop them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 09, 2020, 01:13:38 PM
Honestly, I'm surprised the other EU nations didn't implement temporary border controls once Italy became part of the hot zone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 01:17:35 PM
FWIW, if you were in Philadelphia in 1918--when the authorities couldn't have screwed up more if they'd tried, and 60,000 cases of flu resulted in 12,000 deaths in a six-week period in October and November--your chances of getting sick with that year's highly lethal influenza strain were only about 4%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 03:49:36 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 09, 2020, 03:39:35 PMDoes the 1/4 part of Italy that is under quarantine even border any other nations? Because in case you are unaware, Italy is a boot shape that is 3/4 surrounded by water.

Yes.  Lombardy (the entirety of which is closed) borders Switzerland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 03:52:44 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 09, 2020, 03:39:35 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 09, 2020, 01:13:38 PM
Honestly, I'm surprised the other EU nations didn't implement temporary border controls once Italy became part of the hot zone.
Does the 1/4 part of Italy that is under quarantine even border any other nations? Because in case you are unaware, Italy is a boot shape that is 3/4 surrounded by water.
Actually it's the upper part of the boot where action is. A lot of it is mountains, but Venice (orange zone) to Villach, Austria (where one of my friends lives) is 120 miles as crow flies and 155 mile drive. They actually have a few people who commute across the border from Italy - those were told to work from home about a week ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 09, 2020, 06:06:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 03:52:44 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 09, 2020, 03:39:35 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 09, 2020, 01:13:38 PM
Honestly, I'm surprised the other EU nations didn't implement temporary border controls once Italy became part of the hot zone.
Does the 1/4 part of Italy that is under quarantine even border any other nations? Because in case you are unaware, Italy is a boot shape that is 3/4 surrounded by water.
Actually it's the upper part of the boot where action is. A lot of it is mountains, but Venice (orange zone) to Villach, Austria (where one of my friends lives) is 120 miles as crow flies and 155 mile drive. They actually have a few people who commute across the border from Italy - those were told to work from home about a week ago.

I suspect the upper bit will remain the problem area, but the entire country is now under restriction (as of sometime in the last hour).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 09, 2020, 07:10:02 PM
I refuse to cancel anything over this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 09, 2020, 08:19:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 09, 2020, 07:10:02 PM
I refuse to cancel anything over this.

Don't forget your N95 mask ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: renegade on March 09, 2020, 09:04:09 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 09, 2020, 07:10:02 PM
I refuse to cancel anything over this.
Yeah, me either.

I work on a college campus, cleaning up after the worst slobs, the ones who take their lunch or dinner into the restroom to eat while they sit on the toilet or the floor, instead of into a classroom or common area, rather than practice any type of hygiene, meanwhile I have been given extra things to do in order to prevent the spread of what the students refer to as "corona-beer virus."   If they aren't worried, why the hell should I be?

:banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 09:33:07 PM
NJ declared a State of Emergency. In the short run, it doesn't mean anything. But it does avail themselves to additional resources if need be.

And unlike what some people may think, no, it doesn't close roads, schools or offices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 09, 2020, 09:48:15 PM
A Boeing employee at their Everett facility (the world's largest building by volume) has tested positive for COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1237191983346544640
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 09, 2020, 10:01:37 PM
Made a ton of stops in public places today:

-  The City Court Offices
-  County Recorder's Office
-  Costco
-  The Dentist
-  The Eye Doctor
-  A Restaurant
-  The movies

The lack of crowds is noticeable.  At the City Court the bailiff even noted that they had way less people.  The highest volume Costco in Fresno barely had any traffic nor lines.  Getting food was a snap, we walked into the Dentist an hour early and got service immediately.  I only saw four people in line at the movies for snacks.  This has to be one of the most causal days I've had out in a large city in a very long time, seems like people still want to stay home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 10:56:14 PM
As I write (shortly before 10 PM Central time), the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard reports 709 cases total for the US, but is showing them at the state rather than the city/county level and is showing only states that have four cases or more.  I don't know if this is a temporary glitch or a permanent change.

I went to the gym today and found it to be as crowded as it usually is late Monday afternoon.  Kansas so far has only one confirmed case and it is in Johnson County, 180 miles away.  There have been reports of one possible case local to us, and another in Cowley County about 40 miles away.

Earlier today Italy had a significant jump in cases from 7375 to 9172 (24% increase), which doubtless contributed to the decision to lock down the entire country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 09, 2020, 10:59:06 PM
Update various news outlets in Sacramento and Bay Area are reporting the Grand Princess passengers are going to be sent to Travis Air Force Base soon for quarantine.



Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 09, 2020, 11:00:27 PM
Quite frankly, I'm not concerned at all that I'll catch it. I'm very careful about germs to begin with, because I'm used to being around people who literally enjoy spreading germs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 10, 2020, 03:24:35 PM
NC's governor has declared a state of emergency.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-declares-state-emergency-respond-coronavirus-covid-19 (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-declares-state-emergency-respond-coronavirus-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 10, 2020, 04:20:33 PM
NY got an embryo of a quarantine.
(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/03/10/USAT/d394f658-2370-4840-bbd9-01cb116945de-031020-NY-New-Rochelle_Online.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: sprjus4 on March 10, 2020, 04:51:38 PM
Virginia Beach couple says they have tested positive for coronavirus (https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health/vp-nw-coronavirus-virginia-beach-couple-20200310-75zefmjyw5falchctgegpr2mty-story.html)
QuoteA Virginia Beach couple tested for the coronavirus on Sunday said lab results show they have the infectious disease.

They are the first known coronavirus cases in Hampton Roads.

The couple, who are not being named by The Virginian-Pilot because they are concerned about community alienation and possible repercussions at the wife's job, said they received a call Tuesday telling them the results. The medical team on the line included Sentara Healthcare and state health department officials, the husband, a 68-year-old man retired from the Navy, said.

He and his wife, 58, were told the finding is only presumed as positive until it is validated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"It confirmed what we thought,"  he said Tuesday. "It was like, "˜I'm not nuts, we really do have this.'"

The Virginia Beach Health Department confirmed that the two are thought to be positive for COVID-19, the infection caused by a new coronavirus rapidly spreading around the world. Their cases and another reported by state officials raised the statewide tally to eight by Tuesday afternoon.

So far all cases in Virginia have been travel-related, health officials said.

"We are aware that exposure for these two individuals are travel related,"  said Virginia Beach health director Demetria Lindsay in a news release. "The Public Health Department is in close communication with the two travelers and their care providers, and is conducting a thorough investigation of potential exposures. The two individuals are in stable condition and remain in isolation at this time."

The Virginian-Pilot first reported on the couple's case Monday, after the two said they had an upsetting experience trying to get medical care and testing at Sentara hospitals in South Hampton Roads on Friday and over the weekend.

They believe they contracted the illness while on a Nile River cruise in Egypt. The husband said he began to feel like he was getting a sinus infection on the last few days of their trip, while his wife felt flu-like symptoms on their returning flight into Dulles International Airport.

They said they first went to Sentara Leigh Hospital in Norfolk on Friday but were sent home because they didn't meet the state health department or CDC's criteria for coronavirus testing. After leaving phone messages with the health department, the couple said they eventually got a call back on Sunday, advising them they could be tested.

Their samples were collected that day at Sentara Princess Anne Hospital in Virginia Beach and sent to a state lab.

The couple, which has been self-isolating at home, said they will be providing information to public health officials on their whereabouts since coming back to the United States. They expect more calls throughout the day with medical personnel.

"It sounds like they're going to hold our hands through the rest of this,"  the man said.

Without identifying these specific patients, Sentara released a statement Tuesday afternoon indicating it had seen individuals who tested positive for the infectious disease and was monitoring their cases.

The hospital system is reaching out to people who might have come in contact with them.

"Out of an abundance of caution we are proactively communicating with any individual who may have had potential exposure to the patients while at our hospital,"  said Kelsea Smith, a Sentara spokeswoman.

On Tuesday the husband said he was feeling somewhat better, though he had a fever overnight, and his wife is battling a cough. They are treating their symptoms with over-the-counter pain relievers.

State health officials have set up a helpline, 877-ASK-VDH3, for questions from residents about the novel coronavirus situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:05:13 PM
My daughter's college is having students vacate in a week, go on break for a couple of weeks and then attend class remotely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 10, 2020, 05:15:38 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:05:13 PM
My daughter's college is having students vacate in a week, go on break for a couple of weeks and then attend class remotely.
Many colleges move online. RPI announced that today, for example.
It makes some sense, especially since online teaching is already a big thing for a while. I don't know how labs are going to be arranged (postponed), but for a lot of classes this should be pretty easy.

UPD:What is more interesting, though, is how this plays out in a long term. If you have to choose lectures basically on same subject given at remote community college and MIT, many would choose MIT. In-person interaction is a big thing for going to in-person college, but once in-person is no longer an option things may go in a strange direction.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman on March 10, 2020, 05:21:16 PM
Massachusetts declared a state of emergency earlier this afternoon.  Like NJ, this is mainly to provide quicker access to resources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:28:40 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 10, 2020, 05:15:38 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:05:13 PM
My daughter's college is having students vacate in a week, go on break for a couple of weeks and then attend class remotely.
Many places do that. RPI announced that, for example.
It makes some sense, especially since online teaching is already a big thing for a while. I don't know how labs are going to be arranged (postponed), but for a lot of classes this should be pretty easy.
Attending online just isn't the same, as anyone who's attended web meetings can say.

I also just wonder about access to resources.  Horticulture students without access to the greenhouses?  What about the library?

And, of course, mum's the word on any sort of refund for dorm or meal plans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 10, 2020, 05:34:46 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:28:40 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 10, 2020, 05:15:38 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:05:13 PM
My daughter's college is having students vacate in a week, go on break for a couple of weeks and then attend class remotely.
Many places do that. RPI announced that, for example.
It makes some sense, especially since online teaching is already a big thing for a while. I don't know how labs are going to be arranged (postponed), but for a lot of classes this should be pretty easy.
Attending online just isn't the same, as anyone who's attended web meetings can say.

I also just wonder about access to resources.  Horticulture students without access to the greenhouses?  What about the library?

And, of course, mum's the word on any sort of refund for dorm or meal plans.
I certainly agree, actually updated my post above. Hand-on classes are a big thing, no doubt.
Libraries do move online, thats for sure. I, for one,  do have a few shelves of professional literature, but many of those books are not opened for years as electronic copy is just easier to deal with.
Student to student interaction is a HUGE thing, of course. But last things I heard, even dating is moving online...  So maybe old farts like us just cannot fully absorb the change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 10, 2020, 07:55:07 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:28:40 PMI also just wonder about access to resources.  Horticulture students without access to the greenhouses?  What about the library?

I serve on the board of my local public library, which operates as a department of Wichita city government, and I have been mulling over the possibility that we may be ordered to close as part of a wider containment effort.  We do have a pandemic scenario in our continuity-of-operations plan and it provides for staff cross-training and staggered closure so that we can stay open (at no greater risk to the public than other places that also remain open) even if employee absenteeism reaches very high levels, but if we close completely, customers will be limited to ebooks, online services, and other remote resources.  This is a recipe for trouble on the other side of the digital divide.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 10, 2020, 08:09:55 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 10, 2020, 05:15:38 PM
It makes some sense, especially since online teaching is already a big thing for a while. I don't know how labs are going to be arranged (postponed), but for a lot of classes this should be pretty easy.

In one of my classes, we rely on school computers (except for myself, as I have a computer powerful enough to run ArcMap). The class was simply declared over for the quarter; my grades for that class are being submitted in a couple days, at least a week earlier than they should have been.

If the "remote sessions" continue to be the case next quarter, starting at the end of this month (not looking good, since WA is now at almost 300 cases), I have no idea how my lab classes will work. Many of the students need the school computers. If we're not allowed to meet, then ... ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 10, 2020, 08:14:29 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 10, 2020, 07:55:07 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 10, 2020, 05:28:40 PMI also just wonder about access to resources.  Horticulture students without access to the greenhouses?  What about the library?

I serve on the board of my local public library, which operates as a department of Wichita city government, and I have been mulling over the possibility that we may be ordered to close as part of a wider containment effort.  We do have a pandemic scenario in our continuity-of-operations plan and it provides for staff cross-training and staggered closure so that we can stay open (at no greater risk to the public than other places that also remain open) even if employee absenteeism reaches very high levels, but if we close completely, customers will be limited to ebooks, online services, and other remote resources.  This is a recipe for trouble on the other side of the digital divide.
Well, year without summer introduced the concept of social security to Europe. I can envision this crisis, if managed correctly, leading to reduce digital divide as data access becomes way more important, almost essencial.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 10, 2020, 08:55:55 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 10, 2020, 02:25:22 PM
Well, fortunately for us, I would assume the roads would be the last thing to close.
It would be ironic, in the midst of all the fears of traveling, if gas falls to 99 cents a gallon for the first time this century.. :meh:
Good luck traveling freely in Italy right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 10, 2020, 11:38:14 PM
This is the scariest thing I've heard in my life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 10, 2020, 11:50:08 PM
The worst part is it has to happen in an election year which means this becomes political.  I am glad I do not watch the news anymore.  No cable since 2017 and do not miss the many channels on TV.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:05:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 10, 2020, 11:38:14 PM
This is the scariest thing I've heard in my life.

As opposed to all those near misses that almost started Nuclear War during the waning years of the Cold War?  9/11 was pretty bad, the Oklahoma City Bombing was pretty up there too, and I'm sure that there are others that exceed this virus stuff pretty handily State Side in the past 33 years. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 12:10:28 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:05:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 10, 2020, 11:38:14 PM
This is the scariest thing I've heard in my life.

As opposed to all those near misses that almost started Nuclear War during the waning years of the Cold War?  9/11 was pretty bad, the Oklahoma City Bombing was pretty up there too, and I'm sure that there are others that exceed this virus stuff pretty handily State Side in the past 33 years.

I don't think it's scary except for the potential reaction. I've waded through a lot of germy messes created by slobs, and those probably had a more direct effect on me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:15:58 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 12:10:28 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:05:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 10, 2020, 11:38:14 PM
This is the scariest thing I've heard in my life.

As opposed to all those near misses that almost started Nuclear War during the waning years of the Cold War?  9/11 was pretty bad, the Oklahoma City Bombing was pretty up there too, and I'm sure that there are others that exceed this virus stuff pretty handily State Side in the past 33 years.

I don't think it's scary except for the potential reaction. I've waded through a lot of germy messes created by slobs, and those probably had a more direct effect on me.

The reaction is kind of bewildering to me.  I can't fathom that the general public, media, and political figure would have been acting with such alarm State Side even a decade ago.  I kind of feel as though the reaction is kind of unnatural or more being driven by a lot of factors that haven't been present in the past.  I guess it remains to be seen if that ends up being a net good or net bad thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 12:17:18 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:15:58 AM
The reaction is kind of bewildering to me.  I can't fathom that the general public, media, and political figure would have been acting with such alarm State Side even a decade ago.  I kind of feel as though the reaction is kind of unnatural or more being driven by a lot of factors that haven't been present in the past.  I guess it remains to be seen if that ends up being a net good or net bad thing.

If the government takes draconian measures to combat this virus, I think the living would envy the dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:25:42 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 12:17:18 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:15:58 AM
The reaction is kind of bewildering to me.  I can't fathom that the general public, media, and political figure would have been acting with such alarm State Side even a decade ago.  I kind of feel as though the reaction is kind of unnatural or more being driven by a lot of factors that haven't been present in the past.  I guess it remains to be seen if that ends up being a net good or net bad thing.

If the government takes draconian measures to combat this virus, I think the living would envy the dead.

I wouldn't go quite that far but it is pretty off putting that some countries have considered or implemented mass scale quarantines.  It's more so concerning that a lot more people than I expected are okay with such measures.  I could be wrong at the end of the day but I'm not seeing the Spanish Flu or Black Death in the works. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 11, 2020, 12:53:41 AM
It is 11.45 PM Central time as I post this and the US now has 1025 cases, up from 709 about 24 hours ago.  Today, Italy became the second country (after China) to have a case count in the five figures--10,149 right now.

Upthread, Kalvado predicted 15,000 cases by April 1 and 1 million by May 30.  Today's increase in US cases is basically equivalent to doubling every two days, so if it continues (admittedly a big if), never mind what happens on Memorial Day weekend--we will be at 1 million by April Fool's.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 12:56:32 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 11, 2020, 12:53:41 AM
It is 11.45 PM Central time as I post this and the US now has 1025 cases, up from 709 about 24 hours ago.  Today, Italy became the second country (after China) to have a case count in the five figures--10,149 right now.

Upthread, Kalvado predicted 15,000 cases by April 1 and 1 million by May 30.  Today's increase in US cases is basically equivalent to doubling every two days, so if it continues (admittedly a big if), never mind what happens on Memorial Day weekend--we will be at 1 million by April Fool's.

I know I saw an article that says the pandemic will die down once it reaches a certain number of people - most of whom will show no symptoms. The virus will just have nowhere else to go. But that could take a while - or maybe not, if it keeps spreading this fast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 05:14:58 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 01:06:36 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
C) Those people are 'escaping' Italy's quarantined area if they want to.  So if Italy can't contain them, and they make it to other countries and fly to the US, how exactly is the US supposed to stop them?
The end result with that would be the FAA closing off airspace for international arrivals and departures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: formulanone on March 11, 2020, 06:54:01 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:05:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 10, 2020, 11:38:14 PM
This is the scariest thing I've heard in my life.

As opposed to all those near misses that almost started Nuclear War during the waning years of the Cold War?  9/11 was pretty bad, the Oklahoma City Bombing was pretty up there too, and I'm sure that there are others that exceed this virus stuff pretty handily State Side in the past 33 years. 

It's up there, honestly; fighting ignorance and "bad" habits is the tough part. Everyone thinks they know better because they're still alive, which a fine attitude for that one time you tried anchovies on pizza, but a brazen attempt at protecting yourself against something you can't see nor detect easily. The good news of this seems to be those in good general health have a higher chance of survival, but those who are older and in poorer health may find themselves in a greater risk.

Personally, they're not awful personal habits; we're breathing skin bags made of 70% water and 105% imperfection. In cases like this, it's hard to get people to change quickly and stop to listen for a change, and try to change habits. Washing hands, keeping clean, and thinking about long-term stoppage. Listening to advice and actually having to trust advice we don't want to follow is even tougher.

Honestly, I'm going to have to stop travelling for work for a while over this, but I'm not sure how far our company wants to take things. And that's the least of my troubles.

Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 12:56:32 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 11, 2020, 12:53:41 AM
It is 11.45 PM Central time as I post this and the US now has 1025 cases, up from 709 about 24 hours ago.  Today, Italy became the second country (after China) to have a case count in the five figures--10,149 right now.

Upthread, Kalvado predicted 15,000 cases by April 1 and 1 million by May 30.  Today's increase in US cases is basically equivalent to doubling every two days, so if it continues (admittedly a big if), never mind what happens on Memorial Day weekend--we will be at 1 million by April Fool's.

I know I saw an article that says the pandemic will die down once it reaches a certain number of people - most of whom will show no symptoms. The virus will just have nowhere else to go. But that could take a while - or maybe not, if it keeps spreading this fast.

This might be a good time to actually post proof of what you're trying to say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 07:00:36 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 05:14:58 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 01:06:36 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
C) Those people are 'escaping' Italy's quarantined area if they want to.  So if Italy can't contain them, and they make it to other countries and fly to the US, how exactly is the US supposed to stop them?
The end result with that would be the FAA closing off airspace for international arrivals and departures.
There is a lot at play here. Air cargo. Do you think US has enough mask making capacity? China is accelerating after shutdown...
Once you have some traffic across the border, you may not ban citizens from entry. Quarantine, sure.

Israel went further than any other country, 2ith mandatory quarantine for anyone crossing the border. Probably as strict of a control as realistically possible right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 08:29:21 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 07:00:36 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 05:14:58 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 01:06:36 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
C) Those people are 'escaping' Italy's quarantined area if they want to.  So if Italy can't contain them, and they make it to other countries and fly to the US, how exactly is the US supposed to stop them?
The end result with that would be the FAA closing off airspace for international arrivals and departures.
There is a lot at play here. Air cargo. Do you think US has enough mask making capacity? China is accelerating after shutdown...
Once you have some traffic across the border, you may not ban citizens from entry. Quarantine, sure.

Israel went further than any other country, 2ith mandatory quarantine for anyone crossing the border. Probably as strict of a control as realistically possible right now.
The US embassies would coordinate an evacuation of citizens.  They'd probably contract with US-based airlines.

The ban would only apply to civilian, non-essential air traffic.  Cargo flights carrying essentials would be allowed.

I wouldn't worry about Chinese goods getting here.  Those arrive on container ships bound for LA, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle.  From there the freight is transferred to intermodal transit, either on the road or via rail to head across the continent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 08:53:29 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 08:29:21 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 07:00:36 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 05:14:58 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 01:06:36 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
C) Those people are 'escaping' Italy's quarantined area if they want to.  So if Italy can't contain them, and they make it to other countries and fly to the US, how exactly is the US supposed to stop them?
The end result with that would be the FAA closing off airspace for international arrivals and departures.
There is a lot at play here. Air cargo. Do you think US has enough mask making capacity? China is accelerating after shutdown...
Once you have some traffic across the border, you may not ban citizens from entry. Quarantine, sure.

Israel went further than any other country, 2ith mandatory quarantine for anyone crossing the border. Probably as strict of a control as realistically possible right now.
The US embassies would coordinate an evacuation of citizens.  They'd probably contract with US-based airlines.

The ban would only apply to civilian, non-essential air traffic.  Cargo flights carrying essentials would be allowed.

I wouldn't worry about Chinese goods getting here.  Those arrive on container ships bound for LA, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle.  From there the freight is transferred to intermodal transit, either on the road or via rail to head across the continent.
US embassies can do only that much.
As for goods, there is only that much sense in sending them intermodal (3 weeks at sea, 1 week across US)  when MA will run out in a week at a normal rate, and has to use expired stuff from the national emergency stockpile.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ET21 on March 11, 2020, 10:35:24 AM
Chicago cancelled all St. Patrick's Day festivities, including both parades and the river dyeing. Sounds like they want to reschedule them but as of now no dates have been announced
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicagos-st-patricks-day-parade-canceled/2234904/?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand&fbclid=IwAR0KVNx31k0zhEiNcBk07tPdI_NzIe7u2TY7HPVRayqLoLWcIm9Td4RjVKo&fbclid=IwAR0gE2B3pHo5-JY4kXWCeecUO2-wuLO17tejNNm7UK44xYtRrtOACGv8AJU (https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicagos-st-patricks-day-parade-canceled/2234904/?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand&fbclid=IwAR0KVNx31k0zhEiNcBk07tPdI_NzIe7u2TY7HPVRayqLoLWcIm9Td4RjVKo&fbclid=IwAR0gE2B3pHo5-JY4kXWCeecUO2-wuLO17tejNNm7UK44xYtRrtOACGv8AJU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 10:44:22 AM
Some food for thought on some of the deadlier pandemics in human history and recent history:

https://alltimelists.com/10-deadliest-epidemics-human-history/

I know that Spanish Flu and the Black Death have been brought up in this thread already.  It's interesting to consider that it wasn't too long ago when this like Small Pox, TB, and even Malaria were common place State Side.  AIDS on the whole in recent decades has been an extremely brutalizing disease but tends to not often get mentioned much anymore. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 10:48:54 AM
It's interesting to see everyone go crazy.

What im seeing most is people are stockpiling to prepare to be in the house for 2 weeks to a month.

I wonder after all this passes if people & cities will now be cleaning up more Ie: subway cleaning, trash pickup, people cleaning them selves better.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 10:57:22 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 10:48:54 AM
It's interesting to see everyone go crazy.

What im seeing most is people are stockpiling to prepare to be in the house for 2 weeks to a month.

I wonder after all this passes if people & cities will now be cleaning up more Ie: subway cleaning, trash pickup, people cleaning them selves better.


iPhone

I'm not really getting the whole stock piling off water...especially Costco water.  Even if someone was told to quarantine in place that doesn't mean the tap would be shut off.  As far as I know there isn't any evidence of the current Coronavirus spreading through municipal drinking supplies.  Maybe think that all services will be shut off?  Either way it probably is a good idea to have a two week stock of supplies even just for a random natural disaster of utility failure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 11:02:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 10:57:22 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 10:48:54 AM
It's interesting to see everyone go crazy.

What im seeing most is people are stockpiling to prepare to be in the house for 2 weeks to a month.

I wonder after all this passes if people & cities will now be cleaning up more Ie: subway cleaning, trash pickup, people cleaning them selves better.


iPhone

I'm not really getting the whole stock piling off water...especially Costco water.  Even if someone was told to quarantine in place that doesn't mean the tap would be shut off.  As far as I know there isn't any evidence of the current Coronavirus spreading through municipal drinking supplies.  Maybe think that all services will be shut off?  Either way it probably is a good idea to have a two week stock of supplies even just for a random natural disaster of utility failure.

Yea I was confused, I lived in Florida when Hurricane Katrina hit & power was only out for a week & we managed.

Now when Wilma hit, power was out a month & we managed to eat food, take baths by boiling water & shit the restaurant my dad worked at was still open they just hooked a generator up to the main things that needed power.

I understand the preparing, but even if the USA is quarantined for 2 weeks. Im stepping outside on my porch or taking a walk.

Fuck that.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 11:10:56 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 11:02:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 10:57:22 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 10:48:54 AM
It's interesting to see everyone go crazy.

What im seeing most is people are stockpiling to prepare to be in the house for 2 weeks to a month.

I wonder after all this passes if people & cities will now be cleaning up more Ie: subway cleaning, trash pickup, people cleaning them selves better.


iPhone

I'm not really getting the whole stock piling off water...especially Costco water.  Even if someone was told to quarantine in place that doesn't mean the tap would be shut off.  As far as I know there isn't any evidence of the current Coronavirus spreading through municipal drinking supplies.  Maybe think that all services will be shut off?  Either way it probably is a good idea to have a two week stock of supplies even just for a random natural disaster of utility failure.

Yea I was confused, I lived in Florida when Hurricane Katrina hit & power was only out for a week & we managed.

Now when Wilma hit, power was out a month & we managed to eat food, take baths by boiling water & shit the restaurant my dad worked at was still open they just hooked a generator up to the main things that needed power.

I understand the preparing, but even if the USA is quarantined for 2 weeks. Im stepping outside on my porch or taking a walk.

Fuck that.


iPhone

When I lived in Florida I was in charge of disaster preparedness for my company which obviously included hurricanes.  We would see a sudden spike of generator purchases every time the Weather Channel said we were in the "Cone of Uncertainty"  with an incoming storm.  Almost all those generators came back once the storm passed, it was usually a 90% chance it would miss.  Even in the worst case scenarios things were generally far from the "worst case"  that everyone was told to prepare for.  Should that mean that people shouldn't have emergency supplies?...no I wouldn't say that.  What would say that it was probably pretty unreasonable to assume the worst was going to happen in advance of an emergency actually occurring. 

I'm with you on that outdoor activity, I'm a life long distance runner.  To that end sometime the only thing that has ever made me feel better when I've had the Flu or even a Cold was a run outside.  Sick or not there really enough man power to stop people from going for a walk or jogging in their own neighborhoods. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 11:37:33 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 10:57:22 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 10:48:54 AM
It's interesting to see everyone go crazy.

What im seeing most is people are stockpiling to prepare to be in the house for 2 weeks to a month.

I wonder after all this passes if people & cities will now be cleaning up more Ie: subway cleaning, trash pickup, people cleaning them selves better.


iPhone

I'm not really getting the whole stock piling off water...especially Costco water.  Even if someone was told to quarantine in place that doesn't mean the tap would be shut off.  As far as I know there isn't any evidence of the current Coronavirus spreading through municipal drinking supplies.  Maybe think that all services will be shut off?  Either way it probably is a good idea to have a two week stock of supplies even just for a random natural disaster of utility failure.

Things may be more involved. Our particular area (3500 households) gets power outage 3-5 times a year due to storms. I assume power line passes through vulnerable location. Typically takes 3-4 hours to fix. Water keeps running, though.
Fine print: our sewer system requires power to run. MAYBE I can run it off the generator, haven't tried that yet.  House heat is natural gas, but requires 120V to run. I BELIEVE (not tested) same for the stove. I do have a generator, but gas may be not be pumped without power..

Someone else may use private well, and depend on electricity for pumping.

Now I take as less than guaranteed that there will be crew on hand to fix those outages, if they happens. It can be a domino effect...

PS. My emergency water supply is a 40 gallon hot water tank in the basement. Flushed clean, that is recommended as an annual procedure anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 12:09:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 11:10:56 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 11:02:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 10:57:22 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 10:48:54 AM
It's interesting to see everyone go crazy.

What im seeing most is people are stockpiling to prepare to be in the house for 2 weeks to a month.

I wonder after all this passes if people & cities will now be cleaning up more Ie: subway cleaning, trash pickup, people cleaning them selves better.


iPhone

I'm not really getting the whole stock piling off water...especially Costco water.  Even if someone was told to quarantine in place that doesn't mean the tap would be shut off.  As far as I know there isn't any evidence of the current Coronavirus spreading through municipal drinking supplies.  Maybe think that all services will be shut off?  Either way it probably is a good idea to have a two week stock of supplies even just for a random natural disaster of utility failure.

Yea I was confused, I lived in Florida when Hurricane Katrina hit & power was only out for a week & we managed.

Now when Wilma hit, power was out a month & we managed to eat food, take baths by boiling water & shit the restaurant my dad worked at was still open they just hooked a generator up to the main things that needed power.

I understand the preparing, but even if the USA is quarantined for 2 weeks. Im stepping outside on my porch or taking a walk.

Fuck that.


iPhone

When I lived in Florida I was in charge of disaster preparedness for my company which obviously included hurricanes.  We would see a sudden spike of generator purchases every time the Weather Channel said we were in the "Cone of Uncertainty"  with an incoming storm.  Almost all those generators came back once the storm passed, it was usually a 90% chance it would miss.  Even in the worst case scenarios things were generally far from the "worst case"  that everyone was told to prepare for.  Should that mean that people shouldn't have emergency supplies?...no I wouldn't say that.  What would say that it was probably pretty unreasonable to assume the worst was going to happen in advance of an emergency actually occurring. 

I'm with you on that outdoor activity, I'm a life long distance runner.  To that end sometime the only thing that has ever made me feel better when I've had the Flu or even a Cold was a run outside.  Sick or not there really enough man power to stop people from going for a walk or jogging in their own neighborhoods.

In reality this could be a good thing.

Airports may now implement new screening to make sure people aren't sick.

Communities may come together to create emergency plans.

The government HOPEFULLY will implement better containment procedures.

Companies may move to different countries or back to America.

People will start to care more about hygiene.

The cons of course would be

Asian community looked at as "dirty"

Communities acting cultish & not allowing others in

Extensive traveling screening/tighter borders which proved trump correct about tighter borders so we wont hear the end of that.

Prepare for a "9/11 effect"  on hygiene.




iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 11, 2020, 02:28:22 PM
The Electronic Entertainment Expo (better known as E3) is Los Angeles has been cancelled due to the Coronavirus. The event was scheduled for June 9-11. This is the event where many major video games, consoles, and other software/hardware is announced.




After careful consultation with our member companies regarding the health and safety of everyone in our industry — our fans, our employees, our exhibitors, and our longtime E3 partners — we have made the difficult decision to cancel E3 2020, scheduled for June 9-11 in Los Angeles.

Following increased and overwhelming concerns about the COVID-19 virus, we felt this was the best way to proceed during such an unprecedented global situation. We are very disappointed that we are unable to hold this event for our fans and supporters. But we know it's the right decision based on the information we have today.

Our team will be reaching out directly to exhibitors and attendees with information about providing full refunds.

We are also exploring options with our members to coordinate an online experience to showcase industry announcements and news in June 2020. Updates will be shared on E3Expo.com.

We thank everyone who shared their views on reimagining E3 this year. We look forward to bringing you E3 2021 as a reimagined event that brings fans, media, and the industry together in a showcase that celebrates the global video game industry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 11, 2020, 03:04:21 PM
UMass Lowell is on its scheduled spring break this week. Due to COVID-19, classes will resume on the 18th, not the 16th. They will be online until at least April 3.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 11, 2020, 03:41:05 PM
More grim news from Italy:  cases jumped in 24 hours from 10,149 to 12,462.  The only silver lining is that since the earlier total did not include 600 cases from Lombardy (incomplete returns), the daily average increase over the past two days has been 17%, a bit less than the 20%+ it has been for most of the past couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 03:42:48 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 11, 2020, 02:28:22 PM
The Electronic Entertainment Expo (better known as E3) is Los Angeles has been cancelled due to the Coronavirus. The event was scheduled for June 9-11. This is the event where many major video games, consoles, and other software/hardware is announced.

Canceling something 3 months away is wuss behavior.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 11, 2020, 03:49:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 03:42:48 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 11, 2020, 02:28:22 PM
The Electronic Entertainment Expo (better known as E3) is Los Angeles has been cancelled due to the Coronavirus. The event was scheduled for June 9-11. This is the event where many major video games, consoles, and other software/hardware is announced.

Canceling something 3 months away is wuss behavior.

An international conference of that scale requires advance notice. Take a look at the SXSW situation, which includes layoffs and business closures, for what happens when you don't give advance notice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 03:54:54 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 11, 2020, 03:49:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 03:42:48 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 11, 2020, 02:28:22 PM
The Electronic Entertainment Expo (better known as E3) is Los Angeles has been cancelled due to the Coronavirus. The event was scheduled for June 9-11. This is the event where many major video games, consoles, and other software/hardware is announced.

Canceling something 3 months away is wuss behavior.

An international conference of that scale requires advance notice. Take a look at the SXSW situation, which includes layoffs and business closures, for what happens when you don't give advance notice.

Is E3 even a big deal nowadays?  I haven't a single thing that indicated that it was still going on in at least a decade.  Maybe I'm just getting old and I'm the one who isn't with it anymore...  Regardless cancelling something three months out seems a little like jumping gun to me also,m. 

Didn't the Ivy League cancel their NCAA Men's Basketball tournament?  I'm to understand some other conferences like the MAC are playing in empty arenas. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 11, 2020, 04:07:15 PM
The Ivy League did cancel both of their conference basketball tournaments, though it doesn't mean a whole lot because both tournaments are three-game affairs–only the top four teams qualify and then they play single-elimination in the usual format of 1 v 4, 2 v 3, then a championship game.

DC just urged that there be no gatherings of over 1000 people in a single place. No idea what that will mean for the rest of the hockey season. We have season tickets (we share them with some other people) and I'd like to know what they plan to do as to crediting us for the price of tickets if they play behind closed doors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TravelingBethelite on March 11, 2020, 04:08:13 PM
Both SUNY and Penn State just cancelled in-person classes through at least the ends of their respective spring breaks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 04:37:52 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 08:53:29 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 08:29:21 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 07:00:36 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 05:14:58 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 09, 2020, 01:06:36 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 09, 2020, 10:39:35 AM
Since no level of government here in the US is actually trying to contain the Virus, we can only expect the worst.
C) Those people are 'escaping' Italy's quarantined area if they want to.  So if Italy can't contain them, and they make it to other countries and fly to the US, how exactly is the US supposed to stop them?
The end result with that would be the FAA closing off airspace for international arrivals and departures.
There is a lot at play here. Air cargo. Do you think US has enough mask making capacity? China is accelerating after shutdown...
Once you have some traffic across the border, you may not ban citizens from entry. Quarantine, sure.

Israel went further than any other country, 2ith mandatory quarantine for anyone crossing the border. Probably as strict of a control as realistically possible right now.
The US embassies would coordinate an evacuation of citizens.  They'd probably contract with US-based airlines.

The ban would only apply to civilian, non-essential air traffic.  Cargo flights carrying essentials would be allowed.

I wouldn't worry about Chinese goods getting here.  Those arrive on container ships bound for LA, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle.  From there the freight is transferred to intermodal transit, either on the road or via rail to head across the continent.
US embassies can do only that much.
As for goods, there is only that much sense in sending them intermodal (3 weeks at sea, 1 week across US)  when MA will run out in a week at a normal rate, and has to use expired stuff from the national emergency stockpile.
Some goods arrive along the EC too, but it's mostly oil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Big John on March 11, 2020, 04:45:59 PM
The NVAA just announced that the tournament will be played without fans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 04:59:37 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200311/5ba8c37160469d7916470da4e568f0aa.jpg)
Of course it would be UD first.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 11, 2020, 05:11:13 PM
Note what someone highlighted.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200311/dc5346d259e23df94d5e548700bb4f5a.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Brian556 on March 11, 2020, 05:36:49 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 11, 2020, 05:11:13 PM
Note what someone highlighted.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200311/dc5346d259e23df94d5e548700bb4f5a.jpg)

That stuff is automatically posted when you select the item condition. There would be no way for the seller to just say "New" and nothing else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 11, 2020, 05:37:59 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 11, 2020, 05:11:13 PM
Note what someone highlighted.
you never heard jokes about recycled chocolate, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 05:39:04 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 11, 2020, 05:11:13 PM
Note what someone highlighted.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200311/dc5346d259e23df94d5e548700bb4f5a.jpg)

I would hope it would be unused....  I've been telling my wife we should roll the dice on putting our bottled water and toilet paper on Facebook Market place to see we can up sell them.  We usually have a four week supply on hand for guests, plenty to go around!...but supplies are limited. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Duke87 on March 11, 2020, 07:02:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 03:54:54 PM
Is E3 even a big deal nowadays?  I haven't a single thing that indicated that it was still going on in at least a decade.

It is and isn't. 20 years ago it was a big deal that nerds all over the country would trip over each other trying to get passes to, because they would sell out quickly and were very difficult to get.

Then, the organizers of the event decided to cut off the craziness and made it so passes were only available to people who work in the electronics industry, no more general public admittance. Once they did this, the event stopped getting talked about so much. But yes, it still happens every year.

Quote from: TravelingBethelite on March 11, 2020, 04:08:13 PM
Both SUNY and Penn State just cancelled in-person classes through at least the ends of their respective spring breaks.

CUNY too. The amusing thing? My wife, who finished her masters degree there four years ago and hasn't enrolled in any classes since, still got a phone call, text, and email informing her of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 07:18:50 PM
^^^

Well then that makes sense why I thought E3 disappeared. 

Apparently the NCAA Tournament will be played without fans:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28885422/ncaa-says-tournament-go-fans

Similarly on ESPN TV the NBA is expected to make a similar move for the rest of the season. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US 89 on March 11, 2020, 07:20:00 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 11, 2020, 07:02:07 PM
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on March 11, 2020, 04:08:13 PM
Both SUNY and Penn State just cancelled in-person classes through at least the ends of their respective spring breaks.

CUNY too. The amusing thing? My wife, who finished her masters degree there four years ago and hasn't enrolled in any classes since, still got a phone call, text, and email informing her of this.

At this point, the list of colleges/universities that are closing and/or moving entirely online includes over 200 schools across 31 states. There's a list over on Github (https://gist.github.com/jessejanderson/09155afe313914498a32baa477584fae) that's being updated as more and more announcements are made.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 07:52:19 PM
I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 08:12:42 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 07:52:19 PM
I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.

$97 dollars for me to get to Seattle from Fresno if I want to go by month end.  That's almost too irresistible not to take a weekend out Olympic National Park.  I'm looking at hotel prices tonight for a road trip to Boise, I'm not passing up on the opportunity to save a buck and avoid all the crowds.  I'm even considering a snow trip to Yosemite this weekend...why not at this point? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 08:21:06 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 08:12:42 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 07:52:19 PM
I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.

$97 dollars for me to get to Seattle from Fresno if I want to go by month end.  That's almost too irresistible not to take a weekend out Olympic National Park.  I'm looking at hotel prices tonight for a road trip to Boise, I'm not passing up on the opportunity to save a buck and avoid all the crowds.  I'm even considering a snow trip to Yosemite this weekend...why not at this point?
Finally some "Cup is half full"  thinking & not negative.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 08:23:19 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 08:21:06 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 08:12:42 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 07:52:19 PM
I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.

$97 dollars for me to get to Seattle from Fresno if I want to go by month end.  That's almost too irresistible not to take a weekend out Olympic National Park.  I'm looking at hotel prices tonight for a road trip to Boise, I'm not passing up on the opportunity to save a buck and avoid all the crowds.  I'm even considering a snow trip to Yosemite this weekend...why not at this point?
Finally some "Cup is half full"  thinking & not negative.


iPhone

Hell, I'm not above taking advantage of everyone freaking out to do something fun or productive.  My wife and I had almost instant service everywhere we went on Monday, I went into detail up thread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wanderer2575 on March 11, 2020, 08:52:45 PM
Attorney television ad, six months later:  "If you or a loved one zealously overused disnfectant and sanitizers, and contracted cancer, you may be entitled to significant compensation!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 11, 2020, 09:00:34 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on March 11, 2020, 08:52:45 PM
Attorney television ad, six months later:  "If you or a loved one zealously overused disnfectant and sanitizers, and contracted cancer, you may be entitled to significant compensation!"
YOOOOOOOO LMFAOOOOOOO


I read that in the voice & everything.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 11, 2020, 09:15:43 PM
U.S. is suspending all flights to and from Europe for 30 days as part of the response.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-trump-suspends-all-travel-from-europe.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ftballfan on March 11, 2020, 09:35:59 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 11, 2020, 09:15:43 PM
U.S. is suspending all flights to and from Europe for 30 days as part of the response.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-trump-suspends-all-travel-from-europe.html

A few flights might have to run for the following purposes:
- To get European nationals back to Europe
- To get American nationals back to America
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TravelingBethelite on March 11, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1237914587086966791
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Buck87 on March 11, 2020, 10:55:09 PM
^ A member of the Utah Jazz has tested positive for COVID-19, as of right now both the Jazz and Thunder are quarantined in their locker rooms in Oklahoma City. The infected player is not in the arena.

In other sports news, Ohio State and Michigan have both cancelled their spring football games next month
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 11, 2020, 11:13:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:05:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 10, 2020, 11:38:14 PM
This is the scariest thing I've heard in my life.

As opposed to all those near misses that almost started Nuclear War during the waning years of the Cold War?  9/11 was pretty bad, the Oklahoma City Bombing was pretty up there too, and I'm sure that there are others that exceed this virus stuff pretty handily State Side in the past 33 years. 

The OKC bombing was just some random dipshit that blew up a building downtown, though. After he got arrested the day of, the chance of it affecting anyone who wasn't in the area of the blast itself was basically zero.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ErmineNotyours on March 11, 2020, 11:38:21 PM
A motel I'm familiar with has been turned into a quarantine facility.  Google Street View (https://goo.gl/maps/JPB7ZqCuXtKKqteN6) (note the upside down Signal Ahead sign, which was fixed as soon as I posted it to the Facebook Sign Error page).

It opened as a Best Western Pony Soldier Inn, complete with the old Best Western crown sign, though it didn't animate.  This was the newest location in a national Best Western guide that I had, and property records indicate it was built in 1978.  More recently it became a Howard Johnson, without any redecoration to make it look like a HoJo's.  Then within the past few years it became an Econolodge.  And if you think a motel can't get any lower than Econolodge, think again.  I went by there two days ago and they had already blacked out the sign.  Google Maps has removed all reference to the place, with not even a "Permanently Closed" designation.

I drove to Canada last week, as soon as a seasonal attraction I was looking forward to opened and the weather was good.  I worried if there might be more attention to traveler's health at the crossing, and just the thought of such scrutiny made my jaw sore.  I passed through the border without incident, and my jaw pain cleared up.

I had heard about toilet paper selling out, but thought stores would recover later that week.  I didn't think to stock up on toilet paper while I was in Canada.  Big mistake.  My store was sold out of the stuff, even the product stocked in the organic section.  So with that in mind, I went to a Puget Consumer Co-op heath food store, and they had toilet paper, in regular and bamboo.  On the way there I stopped at a normally well-kept port-a-potty in a park, and that place's toilet paper was stolen, by breaking off the bar on both dispensers.

I remember getting a free sample bottle of hand sanitizer last year at work in a safety bag passed out at a fire safety meeting, but I'm sure I left that at work.  I raided my medicine cabinet anyway, and found a sample bottle of Purell, expired 2009.  The gel has broken down and it's all liquid, but still a valuable keepsake.

Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 08:29:21 AM

I wouldn't worry about Chinese goods getting here.  Those arrive on container ships bound for LA, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle.  From there the freight is transferred to intermodal transit, either on the road or via rail to head across the continent.

I used to work in a place that took containers from China and split up the inventory to various truck trailers to various Target distribution centers across the country.  You would think the container would allow for instant shipping across the country, but steel containers are heavy, and business like the flexibility of truck transport.  It makes sense to ship the containers to warehouses in the Kent valley between the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, and split items up into light truck trailers for the second hop.  If you remember Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront, containers have now allowed sorting work to be done in the suburbs where there is no union presence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 11:47:34 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 11, 2020, 09:15:43 PM
U.S. is suspending all flights to and from Europe for 30 days as part of the response.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-trump-suspends-all-travel-from-europe.html

-Does not affect US citizens and permanent residents
-Does not affect travel from the UK.

Also, how soon before we see restrictions on movement between states?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 11:53:43 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 11:47:34 PM
Also, how soon before we see restrictions on movement between states?

The right to travel within the country kind of puts the kibosh on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ErmineNotyours on March 11, 2020, 11:57:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 11:53:43 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 11:47:34 PM
Also, how soon before we see restrictions on movement between states?

The right to travel within the country kind of puts the kibosh on that.

They had that debate on another thread I followed.  "If we have the right to free assembly, how can the state cancel big events?"  For the same reason you can't shout "fire" in a crowded theater.  Besides, the U.S. already has additional border check stations inland from the border, in Texas for instance, where they can stop you even though you're traveling within the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 11:58:41 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 11, 2020, 11:13:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 12:05:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 10, 2020, 11:38:14 PM
This is the scariest thing I've heard in my life.

As opposed to all those near misses that almost started Nuclear War during the waning years of the Cold War?  9/11 was pretty bad, the Oklahoma City Bombing was pretty up there too, and I'm sure that there are others that exceed this virus stuff pretty handily State Side in the past 33 years. 

The OKC bombing was just some random dipshit that blew up a building downtown, though. After he got arrested the day of, the chance of it affecting anyone who wasn't in the area of the blast itself was basically zero.

In the physical security world that certainly wasn't the case (which the field I'm in).  The First World Trade Center Bombing was kind of the lead up to major terrorism acts State Side in recent decades that probably should have been a huge red flag.  The OKC Bombing as bad as it was kind of similarly brushed aside as a naive fluke by two weirdo extremists (which they were).  Of course things went way south and escalated up to 9/11 which had infinitely more far reaching impacts on day to day life.  Most people in what I do tend to look at the World Trade Center Bombing and OKC Bombing as massive warning signs that physical security in high profile buildings was really a soft target in the lead up to the turn of the century.

Now what tends to get interesting is looking at the history of mass violence in the United States, it really isn't all that new.  I published a paper back in College on the Bath School Disaster which occurred all the way back in 1927.  Really the point of the paper was that there has always been crazy people out there who were committed enough to follow through on their desires to harm others.  Andrew Kehoe was a complete weirdo and probably would stand out like a sore thumb as someone to be concerned about in modern times. 

With things like the Cold War I think a lot of people don't remember really living under the threat of Nuclear War because it was an everyday thing.  Once something becomes normalized people tend not to be afraid of it as much.  There is a similar phenomenon going on right now where things like Active Shooter incidents are kind of becoming normalized (meaning people aren't surprised when they happened).  When mail bombings were a thing people tended to have a similar level of fear in the general public until they similarly became something that was kind of routine.  Even 9/11 with as much uncertainty it created in it's wake started to become part of everyday life about a year after it happened. 

To that end, we'll likely see a tipping point where even the current virus outbreak will start to normalize in the eyes of the general public.  I don't think we are anywhere near that point right now with what is breaking in the news today.  It will probably start to turn that corner in the upcoming months if things stay static or the spread of the virus starts to slow. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 12, 2020, 12:05:12 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on March 11, 2020, 11:57:27 PM
They had that debate on another thread I followed.  "If we have the right to free assembly, how can the state cancel big events?"  For the same reason you can't shout "fire" in a crowded theater.  Besides, the U.S. already has additional border check stations inland from the border, in Texas for instance, where they can stop you even though you're traveling within the country.

I'd just love to see them try to enforce restrictions on movement between states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 12, 2020, 01:31:33 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on March 11, 2020, 11:57:27 PMThey had that debate on another thread I followed.  "If we have the right to free assembly, how can the state cancel big events?"  For the same reason you can't shout "fire" in a crowded theater.  Besides, the U.S. already has additional border check stations inland from the border, in Texas for instance, where they can stop you even though you're traveling within the country.

Border Patrol checkpoints (not just in Texas or the southern border states--they have also been used along the Canadian border) operate under a 100-mile border search exception (US v. Martinez-Fuerte).  There is a related exception that allows sanitary inspections at state borders and is the basis for agricultural inspection in California.

I think the Supreme Court would rule in favor of coronavirus checkpoints at state borders if they were backed by a strong necessity argument and limited to the current emergency.  I am more concerned about the logistics of operating them safely.  They have the potential to create tremendous congestion and, with it, accidents from vehicles running into the backs of queues their drivers don't expect and have not been warned of through signs.  This has been a problem with the Border Patrol's pop-up checkpoints, notably the one they run on I-87 in upstate New York.




As I write now (shortly before 12.30 AM Central time), the US now has 1312 confirmed coronavirus cases, up from 1025 a little over 24 hours ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 12, 2020, 05:08:39 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on March 11, 2020, 11:57:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 11:53:43 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 11:47:34 PM
Also, how soon before we see restrictions on movement between states?

The right to travel within the country kind of puts the kibosh on that.

They had that debate on another thread I followed.  "If we have the right to free assembly, how can the state cancel big events?"  For the same reason you can't shout "fire" in a crowded theater.  Besides, the U.S. already has additional border check stations inland from the border, in Texas for instance, where they can stop you even though you're traveling within the country.

I don't believe any state has actually cancelled an event. It's the events themselves that cancelled. The states have urged people not to be in big group settings, but that's no the same as them cancelling an event.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 12, 2020, 05:49:49 AM
Ohio state government banned any event of size 1000 people or more as have several county governments in California and Washington (state).  SXSW was canceled by the city of Austin
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 12, 2020, 06:39:24 AM
There are now reports saying that Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson has gotten a positive test for COVID-19.


https://variety.com/2020/film/news/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus-1203531498/ (https://variety.com/2020/film/news/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus-1203531498/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: GreenLanternCorps on March 12, 2020, 07:56:54 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 12, 2020, 12:05:12 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on March 11, 2020, 11:57:27 PM
They had that debate on another thread I followed.  "If we have the right to free assembly, how can the state cancel big events?"  For the same reason you can't shout "fire" in a crowded theater.  Besides, the U.S. already has additional border check stations inland from the border, in Texas for instance, where they can stop you even though you're traveling within the country.

I'd just love to see them try to enforce restrictions on movement between states.

Literally impossible.  This came up on another forum awhile back and I counted the crossings between Ohio and Indiana or Michigan on Google Maps as an example.  The are 100 plus land crossings, including multiple examples of State Line Road.  There aren't enough police, Ohio Military Reserve and National Guard in the state to close Ohio's borders once you add Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania to that list.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 08:15:34 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 12, 2020, 05:08:39 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on March 11, 2020, 11:57:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 11:53:43 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 11:47:34 PM
Also, how soon before we see restrictions on movement between states?

The right to travel within the country kind of puts the kibosh on that.

They had that debate on another thread I followed.  "If we have the right to free assembly, how can the state cancel big events?"  For the same reason you can't shout "fire" in a crowded theater.  Besides, the U.S. already has additional border check stations inland from the border, in Texas for instance, where they can stop you even though you're traveling within the country.

I don't believe any state has actually cancelled an event. It's the events themselves that cancelled. The states have urged people not to be in big group settings, but that's no the same as them cancelling an event.

The governor of Ohio more or less ordered sports events to be played without fans because he announced he was going to issue an executive order banning spectators from games in Ohio. I'm not sure whether he followed through on that after the NCAA and the Blue Jackets announced plans to play behind closed doors.

I strongly suspect–this is a guess–that sports team owners are trying to hold out until the states or the leagues "force" them to cancel games because I expect they probably have insurance that applies in the case of involuntary cancellations due to pandemics or other catastrophic events. Thus, they don't want to cancel on their own and be denied coverage. Just a guess, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 12, 2020, 08:45:59 AM
Wyoming now has the Coronavirus. The victim got it via domestic travel.

https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/first-covid-19-case-reported-wyoming#stream/0 (https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/first-covid-19-case-reported-wyoming#stream/0)

SM-G965U

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 12, 2020, 08:49:27 AM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 12, 2020, 08:45:59 AM
Wyoming now has the Coronavirus. The victim got it via domestic travel.

https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/first-covid-19-case-reported-wyoming#stream/0 (https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/first-covid-19-case-reported-wyoming#stream/0)

SM-G965U
If the data I am looking at is up to date, ID, AL, ME, WV, AK and PR are still in the clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 12, 2020, 09:03:20 AM
State correlations between percentage infected and:

Minimum wage (current): 0.51
Price per gallon of gas (outdated by over a year, but the general trend holds): 0.38
Clinton % 2016: 0.34
Obama % 2012: 0.30
Population density: 0.23; 0.08 if excluding DC
% of population living in cities 100K+: 0.23
Asian %: 0.13
Cost of living: 0.11
Sales tax %: 0.08
Year of admission into union: 0.08
2010 population: 0.04 (keep in mind that this is measuring percentage infected, not number infected)
1950 population, 1980 population: 0.03
African-American %: -0.01
Number of total Interstates: -0.02
Number of ZIP code 100 blocks: -0.03
1900 population: -0.04
Native American/Alaska Native %: -0.04
Land area: -0.08; -0.05 if excluding Alaska
White %: -0.08
Number of 2dis: -0.13
Maximum speed limit: -0.17

Population figures are from the 2010 Census.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 12, 2020, 09:08:32 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 12, 2020, 09:03:20 AM
State correlations between percentage infected and:

Minimum wage (current): 0.51
Price per gallon of gas (outdated by over a year, but the general trend holds): 0.38
Clinton % 2016: 0.34
Obama % 2012: 0.30
Population density: 0.23; 0.08 if excluding DC
% of population living in cities 100K+: 0.23
Asian %: 0.13
Cost of living: 0.11
Sales tax %: 0.08
Year of admission into union: 0.08
2010 population: 0.04 (keep in mind that this is measuring percentage infected, not number infected)
1950 population, 1980 population: 0.03
African-American %: -0.01
Number of total Interstates: -0.02
Number of ZIP code 100 blocks: -0.03
1900 population: -0.04
Native American/Alaska Native %: -0.04
Land area: -0.08; -0.05 if excluding Alaska
White %: -0.08
Number of 2dis: -0.13
Maximum speed limit: -0.17

Population figures are from the 2010 Census.

This is a lot of different ways of saying that higher density populations are affected more, or at least not affected less.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 12, 2020, 09:23:55 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 12, 2020, 09:03:20 AM
State correlations between percentage infected and:

Minimum wage (current): 0.51
Price per gallon of gas (outdated by over a year, but the general trend holds): 0.38
Clinton % 2016: 0.34
Obama % 2012: 0.30
Population density: 0.23; 0.08 if excluding DC
% of population living in cities 100K+: 0.23
Asian %: 0.13
Cost of living: 0.11
Sales tax %: 0.08
Year of admission into union: 0.08
2010 population: 0.04 (keep in mind that this is measuring percentage infected, not number infected)
1950 population, 1980 population: 0.03
African-American %: -0.01
Number of total Interstates: -0.02
Number of ZIP code 100 blocks: -0.03
1900 population: -0.04
Native American/Alaska Native %: -0.04
Land area: -0.08; -0.05 if excluding Alaska
White %: -0.08
Number of 2dis: -0.13
Maximum speed limit: -0.17

Population figures are from the 2010 Census.
Bravo!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 12, 2020, 10:13:43 AM
Jacksonville had $1.97 but some other parts of the state are $2.24 for regular.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: tradephoric on March 12, 2020, 11:01:28 AM
The coronavirus has led to the fastest bear market in history.

(https://i.imgur.com/87xQgXT.png)


The Dow plunged into a bear market in just 20 days – the fastest 20% drop in history
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-index-bear-stock-market-20-days-fastest-history-coronavirus-2020-3-1028989775
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Big John on March 12, 2020, 11:44:50 AM
MLS is also suspending their games.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on March 12, 2020, 11:01:28 AM
The coronavirus has led to the fastest bear market in history.

(https://i.imgur.com/87xQgXT.png)


The Dow plunged into a bear market in just 20 days – the fastest 20% drop in history
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-index-bear-stock-market-20-days-fastest-history-coronavirus-2020-3-1028989775

Yes, it has done wonders for my 401k and stock portfolio...  Good thing I have at least two decades before I can seriously consider retirement.  Drawing another 9/11 comparison the markets State Side saw similar plunges in the immediate aftermath. 

Interestingly after all the sports league announcements yesterday there was maybe 15 people at the gym this morning.  I noticed most of the causal goers were staying home, usually there is at least 60-80 people in there at 6 AM. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 12:11:20 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Yes, it has done wonders for my 401k and stock portfolio...  Good thing I have at least two decades before I can seriously consider retirement.  Drawing another 9/11 comparison the markets State Side saw similar plunges in the immediate aftermath. 

Interestingly after all the sports league announcements yesterday there was maybe 15 people at the gym this morning.  I noticed most of the causal goers were staying home, usually there is at least 60-80 people in there at 6 AM. 

I refuse to look at my TSP account.  :ded:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 12, 2020, 12:24:25 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 12:11:20 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Yes, it has done wonders for my 401k and stock portfolio...  Good thing I have at least two decades before I can seriously consider retirement.  Drawing another 9/11 comparison the markets State Side saw similar plunges in the immediate aftermath. 

Interestingly after all the sports league announcements yesterday there was maybe 15 people at the gym this morning.  I noticed most of the causal goers were staying home, usually there is at least 60-80 people in there at 6 AM. 

I refuse to look at my TSP account.  :ded:

The day the first case was reported in the US I shoved everything into the G and F funds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 12, 2020, 12:28:14 PM
Time to invest in stocks & make bids on the ECONOMY!

Ill see you all on the yacht in july!


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 12, 2020, 12:37:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on March 12, 2020, 11:01:28 AM

The Dow plunged into a bear market in just 20 days – the fastest 20% drop in history
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-index-bear-stock-market-20-days-fastest-history-coronavirus-2020-3-1028989775

Yes, it has done wonders for my 401k and stock portfolio...  Good thing I have at least two decades before I can seriously consider retirement.  Drawing another 9/11 comparison the markets State Side saw similar plunges in the immediate aftermath. 

Interestingly after all the sports league announcements yesterday there was maybe 15 people at the gym this morning.  I noticed most of the causal goers were staying home, usually there is at least 60-80 people in there at 6 AM. 

Yeah, it's been bad for everyone's portfolios.

If anyone was ready to retire in the next month, they are probably :banghead: against their walls.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 12:40:00 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 12, 2020, 12:24:25 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 12:11:20 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Yes, it has done wonders for my 401k and stock portfolio...  Good thing I have at least two decades before I can seriously consider retirement.  Drawing another 9/11 comparison the markets State Side saw similar plunges in the immediate aftermath. 

Interestingly after all the sports league announcements yesterday there was maybe 15 people at the gym this morning.  I noticed most of the causal goers were staying home, usually there is at least 60-80 people in there at 6 AM. 

I refuse to look at my TSP account.  :ded:

The day the first case was reported in the US I shoved everything into the G and F funds.

Problem for me was, my 401(k) rollover to the TSP was pending then, so I wasn't able to do that. As Max Rockatansky notes, at least I'm in for the long term. My 401(k) dropped 50% in 2008, but it had more than doubled in the ensuing years. There's time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 12, 2020, 12:40:47 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 12, 2020, 12:28:14 PM
Time to invest in stocks & make bids on the ECONOMY!

Ill see you all on the yacht in july!


iPhone

Once the fallout has finally ceased, absolutely pump money in to your portfolios.  Those yachts may be discounted too!  Ask for a case of clorex wipes to be thrown in the deal! 

Of course, a week or so ago, people thought that plateau occurred, and probably pumped some money into the markets, only to see it (partially) vanish!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 01:45:56 PM
Anyone who invested in the Vicks Index (VXX), you are very smart.  The value of that ETF has doubled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 12, 2020, 01:49:04 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 12, 2020, 12:37:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on March 12, 2020, 11:01:28 AM

The Dow plunged into a bear market in just 20 days – the fastest 20% drop in history
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-index-bear-stock-market-20-days-fastest-history-coronavirus-2020-3-1028989775

Yes, it has done wonders for my 401k and stock portfolio...  Good thing I have at least two decades before I can seriously consider retirement.  Drawing another 9/11 comparison the markets State Side saw similar plunges in the immediate aftermath. 

Interestingly after all the sports league announcements yesterday there was maybe 15 people at the gym this morning.  I noticed most of the causal goers were staying home, usually there is at least 60-80 people in there at 6 AM. 

Yeah, it's been bad for everyone's portfolios.

If anyone was ready to retire in the next month, they are probably :banghead: against their walls.

I was due to inherit some money from my mom's estate next month. I'm wondering if there is anything left?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 12, 2020, 01:59:49 PM
Maine has its first presumptive positive case of the coronavirus as of noon today. (https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/everything-mainers-need-to-know-about-the-coronavirus/97-200ab61c-4c02-4ef8-aee9-7ca00900e307) The woman is from Androscoggin County in her 50's - The Maine CDC and her health care provider are investigating her travel history and possible community exposure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 02:00:40 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 12, 2020, 12:37:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on March 12, 2020, 11:01:28 AM

The Dow plunged into a bear market in just 20 days – the fastest 20% drop in history
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-index-bear-stock-market-20-days-fastest-history-coronavirus-2020-3-1028989775

Yes, it has done wonders for my 401k and stock portfolio...  Good thing I have at least two decades before I can seriously consider retirement.  Drawing another 9/11 comparison the markets State Side saw similar plunges in the immediate aftermath. 

Interestingly after all the sports league announcements yesterday there was maybe 15 people at the gym this morning.  I noticed most of the causal goers were staying home, usually there is at least 60-80 people in there at 6 AM. 

Yeah, it's been bad for everyone's portfolios.

If anyone was ready to retire in the next month, they are probably :banghead: against their walls.

There are a couple people I work with who were on short timer syndrome that are reconsidering when they'll retire.  Really my thought is that we'll have a better idea on long term market effects maybe 3-6 months from now.  In the long term things will likely stabilize and improve to something resembling the pre-Virus economy.  I'm just glad that I invest in a lot of bonds and not all stocks, otherwise I would be taking a bigger hit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 12, 2020, 02:13:35 PM
The ACC has cancelled the remainder of the men's basketball tournament.

https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx (https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 02:54:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 12, 2020, 02:13:35 PM
The ACC has cancelled the remainder of the men's basketball tournament.

https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx (https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx)

Probably just a matter of time before the NCAA tournament gets the axe.  I've been hearing MLB has suspended the season, can anyone confirm?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 12, 2020, 02:58:26 PM
With luck, two months or so of caution and limiting social engagements will help ease the spread of the virus and it'll peak perhaps next month.  By summer, if we just mind the doctors and scientists' best advice, life can get back to basically normal.  MLB, assuming they decide to kill of the first part of the season, could have an adjusted schedule and be a great way to resume normal life. 

I'm trying to be optimistic, of course.  I'm in Washington and working under the assumption that I got exposed unknowingly.  Good thing I am already a bit of a recluse in my social life and can self quarantine with barely a change in my habits :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Big John on March 12, 2020, 03:04:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 02:54:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 12, 2020, 02:13:35 PM
The ACC has cancelled the remainder of the men's basketball tournament.

https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx (https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx)

Probably just a matter of time before the NCAA tournament gets the axe.  I've been hearing MLB has suspended the season, can anyone confirm?
yes : https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/03/12/mlb-delays-season-coronavirus-outbreak
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 12, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 11:00:12 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 12:26:50 AMExpect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.
OK, first milestone - just past 1500 in US. by "next week" I meant more like weekend counts... Not thrilled with my guess, would greatly prefer if it was other way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 12, 2020, 03:30:53 PM
How is the coronavirus scare affecting your commute and/or travel plans?

In San Francisco, apparently quite a bit (https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/san-francisco-traffic-falls-dramatically-in-wake-of-coronavirus/)! Usually you look at Google Maps traffic in California and there's two constant hot spots of red and orange (slow traffic) during daylight hours. This week though, and today in particular, it's bizarre: LA is the only hot spot, while San Fran is almost traffic-free! Visit Google Maps with Traffic turned on and you'll see what I mean.
Seattle, too, looks to be experiencing much lighter traffic than usual. (I-5 Express Lanes closed right now? That doesn't seem normal.)

As far as my own area, still pretty close to normal traffic, especially at rush hour, but I would say non-essential trips have notably decreased. If I had to make an educated guess, there's maybe about 5-7% less volume on the roads as compared to usual this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 03:39:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 12, 2020, 03:30:53 PM
How is the coronavirus scare affecting your commute and/or travel plans?

In San Francisco, apparently quite a bit (https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/san-francisco-traffic-falls-dramatically-in-wake-of-coronavirus/)! Usually you look at Google Maps traffic in California and there's two constant hot spots of red and orange (slow traffic) during daylight hours. This week though, and today in particular, it's bizarre: LA is the only hot spot, while San Fran is almost traffic-free! Visit Google Maps with Traffic turned on and you'll see what I mean.
Seattle, too, looks to be experiencing much lighter traffic than usual. (I-5 Express Lanes closed right now? That doesn't seem normal.)

As far as my own area, still pretty close to normal traffic, especially at rush hour, but I would say non-essential trips have notably decreased. If I had to make an educated guess, there's maybe about 5-7% less volume on the roads as compared to usual this week.

There is a lot less commercial freight and general vehicle traffic on the route to my normal office on CA 41 south out of Fresno.  My wife noted CA 99 south of out of Madera in the evening isn't slowing down anymore on her way home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 12, 2020, 03:40:46 PM
Noticed absolutely nothing out of place here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 03:46:48 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 12, 2020, 03:30:53 PM
How is the coronavirus scare affecting your commute and/or travel plans?

....

I telecommute, so no issue there. The potential travel we have coming up is a likely trip to Florida for a funeral. Hopefully that won't happen soon, of course! We have not decided whether to drive 860 miles or fly, but my inclination is to drive. Not sure my wife would go for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 12, 2020, 03:52:53 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 12, 2020, 03:30:53 PM
How is the coronavirus scare affecting your commute and/or travel plans?

I had a trip from Tacoma to Seattle on Monday, as my cats had a yearly checkup with the vet there.  Last year it took well over an hour to travel there and almost 1.5 hours to return.  This year it was 42 minutes each way with just minor slowdowns in downtown.  This was midday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: sprjus4 on March 12, 2020, 04:46:44 PM
"˜This is a public health emergency': All Md. schools to close for nearly 2 weeks; National Guard activated (https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-update-alexandria-records-1st-first-case-loudoun-co-schools-closed-for-more-than-a-week/)
QuoteMaryland is closing all public schools in the state from March 16 through March 27 in order to slow the spread of the growing coronavirus outbreak.

That's one of several "major actions"  being taken in the state. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan announced he is pushing the state's emergency management agency to the highest level, activating the National Guard, ordering all non-essential government employees to work from home, blocking passenger cruise ships from docking in the port of Baltimore.

"This is a public health emergency,"  Deputy Health Secretary Fran Phillips. said.

At a news conference earlier in Virginia, Gov. Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency to deal with the growing coronavirus outbreak.

State health officials announced several new cases Thursday, bringing the total number of patients testing positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the new virus, to 17. The total count includes two Virginians who traveled to Texas and tested positive for the virus there.

State health officials said all of the cases diagnosed in Virginia involve international travel or contacts with people who had already tested positive for the virus.

"The situation is fluid and it is changing rapidly,"  Northam said during a news conference Thursday afternoon. "Virginians should know that we have long standing plans in place to deal with pandemic."

The emergency declaration allows the governor to ease regulatory rules and more easily coordinate with federal officials. In addition, state-run conferences and large events over the next 30 days are being canceled, and Northam said state agencies are looking "phase in"  telework for state employees.

Health officials said they have enough test kits to currently perform 500 to 600 patients.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 04:51:43 PM
We are never getting back to normal.

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 04:51:43 PM
We are never getting back to normal.

LGL322DL

See upthread, I went into that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 12, 2020, 05:00:11 PM
I don't think this really changes my habits. For a long time, I've been very, very careful about germs. One thing I hate, hate, hate is when people use utensils after they've been on a bare table at a restaurant. That's disgusting and it spreads germs. I also hate it when people sit on the part of a bed where your head goes - after they've eaten at a restaurant and picked up dirt on their pants from other customers.

I do not touch things in public restrooms. Ever.

Also, I open doors using my pinky finger, and only touch the top of the handle.

I've been doing these things for a very long time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 05:01:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 04:51:43 PM
We are never getting back to normal.

LGL322DL

See upthread, I went into that.
Which one?

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 12, 2020, 05:02:47 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 04:51:43 PM
We are never getting back to normal.

LGL322DL
Depends on what you define as "normal". We're never back to pre-9/11 normal - so what? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 12, 2020, 05:49:33 PM
A state of emergency has been declared in Virginia.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/march/headline-853537-en.html (https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/march/headline-853537-en.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 12, 2020, 05:53:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 02:54:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 12, 2020, 02:13:35 PM
The ACC has cancelled the remainder of the men's basketball tournament.

https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx (https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/12/statement-from-acc-on-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx)

Probably just a matter of time before the NCAA tournament gets the axe.

Yep. NCAA just announced it.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-03-12/ncaa-cancels-remaining-2020-winter-and-spring-championships?utm_campaign=inline-article (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-03-12/ncaa-cancels-remaining-2020-winter-and-spring-championships?utm_campaign=inline-article)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US 89 on March 12, 2020, 06:20:03 PM
After two players on the Jazz tested positive, representing the state's 4th and 5th coronavirus cases, it looks like Utah is going into full crisis mode. Although not enforceable by law, the governor has called for mass gatherings to be limited to no more than 100 people for at least the next two weeks, also encouraging older and immunocompromised people to avoid gatherings of more than 20 people. Colleges and universities are moving to all-online instruction, while K-12 schools are remaining open unless an individual district decides to close - so far, Murray City is the only district to close, and that was because they had a potential direct exposure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on March 12, 2020, 06:52:21 PM
I made the decision on Tuesday to postpone an upcoming Japan trip that was scheduled to leave on the 23rd. As I have told others, the virus does not scare me. Government lockdowns and airline shutdowns do, however.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 06:54:57 PM
The Episcopalian dioceses here cancelled worship services for the next two weeks. They're taking the mayor seriously when she asked people not to hold "Mass gatherings."

:bigass:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 12, 2020, 07:08:50 PM
-Most, if not all Spring Break trips sponsored by my school have been cancelled. Destinations included: New York City, Atlanta, and Ireland. I was not going on any of these anyway, so that is their loss. That said, I am finally now on Spring Break, lasting until 3/23. However, this could very well be "extended", now that the virus is now in town (https://fox4kc.com/tracking-coronavirus/gov-parson-confirms-missouris-second-case-of-coronavirus-in-springfield/). There goes what little social life I have...

-A family member in Decatur, GA informed me that their school district is closed "indefinitely", and school will basically be online for up to the rest of the year.

-A man near Springfield is selling toilet paper for $100. Capitalism at its finest (https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/1080153615674963)  :bigass:

-Being only 16, I'm not exactly scared about the virus, and I am no stranger to staying inside for days at a time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ftballfan on March 12, 2020, 07:33:28 PM
Netflix is about to have a record few months
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 12, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

Have a family Spring Break trip planned to Hilton Head booked through VRBO.  Got an email notifying me that they will not be issuing any refunds to people who cancel trips, so I guess we're going.  Not sure what we'll do if the flight gets canceled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:44:09 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 12, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

Have a family Spring Break trip planned to Hilton Head booked through VRBO.  Got an email notifying me that they will not be issuing any refunds to people who cancel trips, so I guess we're going.  Not sure what we'll do if the flight gets canceled.
I say drive it.  Shouldn't be much traffic.

Amtrak hasn't suspended any services completely on the national network, just cut back on Acela service by two trips.  So that's an option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 07:45:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

I'm planning as many as possible.  I'm trying to convince my wife to go hiking with me out in the rain in Pinnacles National Park this Sunday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:51:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 07:45:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

I'm planning as many as possible.  I'm trying to convince my wife to go hiking with me out in the rain in Pinnacles National Park this Sunday.
Do it.  You can travel and minimize human contact.

-Drive to your destination.
-Eat out as little as possible
-Pick a destination where you not apt to find large groups of people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 12, 2020, 07:52:37 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:44:09 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 12, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

Have a family Spring Break trip planned to Hilton Head booked through VRBO.  Got an email notifying me that they will not be issuing any refunds to people who cancel trips, so I guess we're going.  Not sure what we'll do if the flight gets canceled.
I say drive it.  Shouldn't be much traffic.

Amtrak hasn't suspended any services completely on the national network, just cut back on Acela service by two trips.  So that's an option.

Amtrak doesn't go from here to there, at least not in any way that doesn't take multiple days.
Driving is a backup plan if the flight gets canceled though that adds a day to the trip each way and everybody except me hates long road trips.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 08:48:21 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on March 12, 2020, 07:33:28 PM
Netflix is about to have a record few months

With everybody buying TP and water instead of rubbers, I think nine months from now the maternity wards will set new records.




Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 07:45:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

I'm planning as many as possible.  I'm trying to convince my wife to go hiking with me out in the rain in Pinnacles National Park this Sunday.

Take some piña coladas for when you get caught in the rain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: oscar on March 12, 2020, 10:00:23 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:51:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 07:45:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

I'm planning as many as possible.  I'm trying to convince my wife to go hiking with me out in the rain in Pinnacles National Park this Sunday.
Do it.  You can travel and minimize human contact.

-Drive to your destination.
-Eat out as little as possible
-Pick a destination where you not apt to find large groups of people.

My thinking is similar. Indeed, I'm on the road right now.

Whether I attend any road meets this year is another story. "Social distancing" might complicate meets, such as by needing bigger lunch/dinner tables so we're not sitting next to each other, and also making car-pooling harder. Coronavirus might be less of an issue for our younger members, but as someone on the low end of "elderly", I worry about social events as opposed to my usual solo road trips. I'm also trying to adjust my routines to protect myself better as the crisis gets worse.

This all is heightened by the predicament of my 90-something aunt in Milan, in the heart of Italy's coronavirus crisis, which already is where the U.S. might end up in the coming weeks. She says she's housebound, it's too dangerous for her to go out in public (even without the police hassling people for taking a walk around the neighborhood), and she has to have her groceries delivered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 10:06:02 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:51:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 07:45:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

I'm planning as many as possible.  I'm trying to convince my wife to go hiking with me out in the rain in Pinnacles National Park this Sunday.
Do it.  You can travel and minimize human contact.

-Drive to your destination.
-Eat out as little as possible
-Pick a destination where you not apt to find large groups of people.

Essentially out west of the Central Valley in the Diablo Range you're on the moon anyways.  I did some off roading last Saturday out that way and only saw two people the entire time I was in the mountains.  Likewise the Sierras are attractive destination give it is winter season right now and nobody is around.  I see no reason to sit around worrying about what I can't control. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 12, 2020, 10:06:50 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

My Medieval group was planning a big gathering in Mississippi starting this weekend, but was forced to cancel it when state health authorities banned any gatherings over 200 people (3000 usually attend). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 12, 2020, 10:08:11 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 12, 2020, 03:30:53 PM
How is the coronavirus scare affecting your commute and/or travel plans?

So, I live in Connecticut and work in Montréal.  Normally, three weeks each month, I work from home; and I go into the office for the fourth week.

Company policy is now that unnecessary travel (including my commute) is prohibited.  And, for business continuity purposes, we're required to have no more than 50% of our team in a given office until further notice.  (For example, I'm a member of a team of four economic capital modelers.  I was already mostly work-from-home.  One of my teammates is now also working from home full-time.)   The department I was formerly a part of is actually going to telecommute-only as quickly as laptops can be issued, due to local school closures, and to maximize productivity.  (Or, as my former grandboss reportedly put it: "We're all disgusting, so let's get out of each others' sight.")

I am currently in the middle of an unplanned roadtrip.  Normally I fly to Memphis every 6-8 weeks to check in with my father.  However, he's taken a turn for the worse, and I needed to come down, pull some legal documents out of a safe deposit box, and finish getting my father moved into memory care.   

I opted to drive, rather than fly, partly out of coronavirus concerns - about half the time I fly, I pick up a sniffle from some germy kid, and I didn't want to risk sharing this sniffle with a bunch of octogenarians and nonogenarians - and partly for hauling capability (some family stuff in his old apartment that I need to keep, or at least go through before disposing).

So, I got into Memphis late last (Wednesday) night, and went over to my father's retirement community this morning...to discover that they had just implemented a strict pandemic protocol, locking down their facility to visitors except in case of emergency.   They're still working out a couple of the rough edges, but today I was limited to being allowed to get a box load of mail/documents from his apartment, and to grab the mail in his mailbox.   He was resting, so I didn't ask that he be disturbed and brought outside for a visit.

In other words, I just drove 1200 miles...and didn't get to see my father, due to coronavirus issues.   (A bit of an exaggeration -- they're supposed to call when he has a good spell tomorrow or Saturday, and so that I can pop over and see him outside the secured area -- but still, this is going to be a far less productive trip than I had planned.)

Driving down, it seemed like there were fewer cars and more trucks on the road from what I am used to seeing...but I don't think I've ever done the drive on a Tuesday+Wednedsday before, so I wouldn't put too much weight on that.  Restaurants seem a little less crowded than I would have expected, but not so much less that it would feel weird.   Coughing draws dirty looks in public spaces.  This is not a good time to be a person with a chronic cough.

I've been joking that I hope I get home before they start erecting checkpoints or blocking roads through certain areas.  I don't think they'd actually do that...but the country seems to have gone insane, so who knows.  (Acting with an abundance of caution isn't necessarily a bad thing, but...)

One thing is certain...barring an emergency, once I get back to CT, I suspect that I'm going to stay local until this either blows over, or until we have better information and less dramatic measures are indicated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 12, 2020, 10:09:18 PM
I went to a bar tonight.

As did many others.

And it was probably still safer than the hoards of people going grocery shopping prepering to self-quarantine themselves...by being out with hoards of other people not giving it a second thought that they're in a building with hundreds of others...the exact opposite of where they should be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 10:15:30 PM
So this might become like Italy? Now I'm scared.

LGL322DL
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 12, 2020, 10:21:43 PM
Disney has closed its theme parks in CA and FL for the next two weeks.  Lots of disappointed travelers out there, over this hype.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Big John on March 12, 2020, 10:25:12 PM
Sophie Trudeau, wife on the Canadian PM, tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 12, 2020, 10:26:44 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 10:15:30 PM
So this might become like Italy? Now I'm scared.

LGL322DL

No offense but it sounds like you get worked up over this stuff easily.  About all you can do in any emergency is control what you do and how to prepare for it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Ben114 on March 12, 2020, 11:03:16 PM
All school trips out of state have been cancelled though April 27 for me.

Graduation has also been cancelled (since the place hosting cancelled, and my school hasn't found a replacement yet).
Title: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 12, 2020, 11:07:03 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 10:15:30 PM
So this might become like Italy? Now I'm scared.

LGL322DL
Please relax.

The whole point of shutting things down is to stop the spread & allow it to go away. You will still be able to walk outside & do things. Just not in big public settings.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Chris on March 13, 2020, 07:38:54 AM
The Italian economy appears to be crashing hard at this moment. Tourism contributes over $ 200 billion per year to the Italian economy and all top attractions are deserted.

Trevi Fountain, Rome
(https://i.imgur.com/MUOLPUx.jpg)

Milan Cathedral
(https://i.imgur.com/IjnQln5.jpg)

San Marco Square, Venice
(https://i.imgur.com/4knWXsi.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 08:08:28 AM
Ooh, just thought of a big one: the 2020 census, which is less than 3 weeks away!

Is it possible that coronavirus could be... a positive development for the census?
It seems like the reduced travel could not be coming at a better time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 08:19:17 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 08:08:28 AM
Ooh, just thought of a big one: the 2020 census, which is less than 3 weeks away!

Is it possible that coronavirus could be... a positive development for the census?
It seems like the reduced travel could not be coming at a better time.

We got ours in the mail last night–no form, just a 12-digit code for use online. I completed it on my iPad while dinner was in the oven. Took maybe 10 minutes. Much less intrusive questioning than in the past.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: gonealookin on March 13, 2020, 08:25:49 AM
A little over one week into my Arizona/Florida trip and there hasn't been any particular impact so far.  I craftily, or luckily, scheduled the Arizona portion, which was for Cactus League baseball, first, and left there a couple days in advance of the sports suspensions.

I've noticed a few empty shelves here in the Miami area.  (Clerk in Walgreens a little while ago:  "We don't have any bleach or hand sanitizer."  Me:  "Ummm, OK, all I want is a box of Wheat Thins to take to the beach.")  Restaurant experiences are all as usual.  I hope we can go a few more days without some extreme reaction like Miami-Dade closing the beaches.

I do have a backup plan for the return trip west next week in the event air travel were shut down:  a one-way rental car reservation out of Fort Lauderdale.  At this time of year the rental companies want people to drive their cars one-way out of south Florida anyway so that isn't very expensive; the gas, food and motels over all those miles would cost way more than the rental.  That's only an emergency plan though and I expect I'll be on JetBlue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 13, 2020, 08:43:51 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 10:15:30 PM
So this might become like Italy?

While anything is possible, I doubt it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: tdindy88 on March 13, 2020, 08:57:10 AM
Quote from: Chris on March 13, 2020, 07:38:54 AM
The Italian economy appears to be crashing hard at this moment. Tourism contributes over $ 200 billion per year to the Italian economy and all top attractions are deserted.

If I recall, Venice was complaining about too much tourism last year. Be careful what you wish for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 13, 2020, 08:59:52 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 08:08:28 AM
Ooh, just thought of a big one: the 2020 census, which is less than 3 weeks away!

Is it possible that coronavirus could be... a positive development for the census?
It seems like the reduced travel could not be coming at a better time.
Those census takers going door to door in hazmat suits will be an interesting sight..
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 13, 2020, 09:27:48 AM
Does anyone know whether Alaska is canceling things or not? They have no cases yet, and they're isolated from the rest of the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 09:35:01 AM
Meanwhile at Walmart, what's a little fallout?

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 09:53:01 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 11, 2020, 03:54:54 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 11, 2020, 03:49:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 11, 2020, 03:42:48 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 11, 2020, 02:28:22 PM
The Electronic Entertainment Expo (better known as E3) is Los Angeles has been cancelled due to the Coronavirus. The event was scheduled for June 9-11. This is the event where many major video games, consoles, and other software/hardware is announced.

Canceling something 3 months away is wuss behavior.

An international conference of that scale requires advance notice. Take a look at the SXSW situation, which includes layoffs and business closures, for what happens when you don't give advance notice.

Is E3 even a big deal nowadays?

The same could be said of world's fairs.  I only knew about the 2020 Dubai World's Fair through touch line ads on English Premier League soccer matches...

https://www.expo2020dubai.com/

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I just checked the Johns Hopkins dashboard, and less than an hour ago it showed an increase of out-of-China cases today. But now it only lists around 10k. And everything says "no data". What happened? https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 10:07:48 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I just checked the Johns Hopkins dashboard, and less than an hour ago it showed an increase of out-of-China cases today. But now it only lists around 10k. And everything says "no data". What happened? https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61
OK, now the total cases looks fine, but the total death is no longer available
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 13, 2020, 10:17:07 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 08:08:28 AM
Ooh, just thought of a big one: the 2020 census, which is less than 3 weeks away!

Is it possible that coronavirus could be... a positive development for the census?
It seems like the reduced travel could not be coming at a better time.

No. If people don't send their forms in, census people will have to go door to door.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 10:28:17 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 10:07:48 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I just checked the Johns Hopkins dashboard, and less than an hour ago it showed an increase of out-of-China cases today. But now it only lists around 10k. And everything says "no data". What happened? https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61
OK, now the total cases looks fine, but the total death is no longer available
Back to normal now
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 13, 2020, 10:32:47 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 08:08:28 AM
Ooh, just thought of a big one: the 2020 census, which is less than 3 weeks away!

Is it possible that coronavirus could be... a positive development for the census?
It seems like the reduced travel could not be coming at a better time.

Staggered mailing of Census letters started arriving in mailboxes yesterday.  For the first time, there is an online option.  Go to the website listed in your letter and input the address id in your letter and you can be done in 10 minutes.

Paper forms will arrive near the end of the month (assuming no disruption in mail delivery) for those who don't do it online.  In person follow-up happens beginning in May for households that don't answer online or by paper.

As of this morning, there is no change to any census operations, though there is substantial contingency planning taking place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 10:43:36 AM
My Wife and I went grocery shopping at 6 AM this morning to avoid the crowds.  Vons had a lot of cleaning supplies shipped in and had a bunch of extra stocking crew pushing it to the Sales Floor.  There really wasn't anyone else shopping and it seemed like there was plenty of stock on hand.  I did grab a bunch of Gatorade so I had something to take running with me in case the mad grab for water starts cascading to electrolyte drinks. 

My Wife went shopping at Walmart last night, apparently they ran out of paper supplies around midday yesterday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: PHLBOS on March 13, 2020, 11:21:00 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 08:19:17 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 08:08:28 AM
Ooh, just thought of a big one: the 2020 census, which is less than 3 weeks away!

Is it possible that coronavirus could be... a positive development for the census?
It seems like the reduced travel could not be coming at a better time.

We got ours in the mail last night–no form, just a 12-digit code for use online. I completed it on my iPad while dinner was in the oven. Took maybe 10 minutes. Much less intrusive questioning than in the past.
I received mine yesterday as well.  I completed it a couple hours ago while on break.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 10:43:36 AM
My Wife and I went grocery shopping at 6 AM this morning to avoid the crowds.  Vons had a lot of cleaning supplies shipped in and had a bunch of extra stocking crew pushing it to the Sales Floor.  There really wasn’t anyone else shopping and it seemed like there was plenty of stock on hand.  I did grab a bunch of Gatorade so I had something to take running with me in case the mad grab for water starts cascading to electrolyte drinks. 

My Wife went shopping at Walmart last night, apparently they ran out of paper supplies around midday yesterday. 
Earlier this week, I actually was down to two rolls of toilet paper.  I typically buy a 12-to-24 pack which lasts for a while supplywise and buy another pack when I'm down to two remaining rolls.  I went to my local Giant to purchase some with no real shortage nor incident while reports of stores elsewhere had none.  Hand sanitizer OTOH was another story.  The local CVS had a sign mentioning that they were sold out of such (hand sanitizers, that is).

Fast-forward to last night: at the same Giant store, its toilet paper inventory was about half of what it was a few days earlier.  Clorox wipes or equivalent were completely sold out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 13, 2020, 12:06:10 PM
Quote from: Chris on March 13, 2020, 07:38:54 AM
The Italian economy appears to be crashing hard at this moment. Tourism contributes over $ 200 billion per year to the Italian economy and all top attractions are deserted.

Trevi Fountain, Rome
(https://i.imgur.com/MUOLPUx.jpg)

Milan Cathedral
(https://i.imgur.com/IjnQln5.jpg)

San Marco Square, Venice
(https://i.imgur.com/4knWXsi.jpg)




Wow these shots look nice!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 13, 2020, 12:10:51 PM
My commute last night was barely over an hour from Downtown Seattle to home, about half the usual time (even off-peak). Only a small bit of traffic near Shoreline because of a broken-down car in the HOV lane. The bus was carrying 1/4th the usual amount of people, even though an earlier trip was cancelled and consolidated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 12:20:04 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 10:28:17 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 10:07:48 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I just checked the Johns Hopkins dashboard, and less than an hour ago it showed an increase of out-of-China cases today. But now it only lists around 10k. And everything says "no data". What happened?

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

OK, now the total cases looks fine, but the total death is no longer available

Back to normal now

Not really--they've been showing signs of falling victim to their own success since before they dropped county-level display for the US and Canada.  Besides the "No data" and "Cannot access data source" error messages I've seen, their figures are now severely out of date for many jurisdictions.  For example, they are now showing the US with 1268 cases when they were showing 1663 yesterday, and neither yesterday nor today have they picked up the four additional cases Kansas now has (we went from one in Johnson County to five in 24 hours, four in Johnson County and one in Wyandotte County).  And they were showing Italy with 12,462 cases all day yesterday even though the new figure (15,113 cases) had been released by the Italian civil protection authorities shortly after noon Central time.

Edit:  The Kansas case total is now six, with one case (Sedgwick County's first) at Wesley Hospital in Wichita.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 13, 2020, 12:24:05 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 12:20:04 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 10:28:17 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 10:07:48 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I just checked the Johns Hopkins dashboard, and less than an hour ago it showed an increase of out-of-China cases today. But now it only lists around 10k. And everything says "no data". What happened?

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

OK, now the total cases looks fine, but the total death is no longer available

Back to normal now

Not really--they've been showing signs of falling victim to their own success since before they dropped county-level display for the US and Canada.  Besides the "No data" and "Cannot access data source" error messages I've seen, their figures are now severely out of date for many jurisdictions.  For example, they are now showing the US with 1268 cases when they were showing 1663 yesterday, and neither yesterday nor today have they picked up the four additional cases Kansas now has (we went from one in Johnson County to five in 24 hours, four in Johnson County and one in Wyandotte County).  And they were showing Italy with 12,462 cases all day yesterday even though the new figure (15,113 cases) had been released by the Italian civil protection authorities shortly after noon Central time.

CA, TX, FL, MI, GA, OR, and a few others are missing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 13, 2020, 01:21:30 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 12, 2020, 10:15:30 PM
So this might become like Italy? Now I'm scared.

LGL322DL

That is indeed what Governor Cuomo announced yesterday:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-new-york-will-see-same-trajectory-of-cases-as-china-south-korea-and-italy-gov-cuomo-says.html

Quote from: 1 on March 13, 2020, 09:27:48 AM
Does anyone know whether Alaska is canceling things or not? They have no cases yet, and they're isolated from the rest of the country.
They actually do have a case:
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2020/03/13/first-positive-alaska-coronavirus-case-identified/
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 01:38:51 PM
The latest Protezione Civile bulletin is out.  Cases in Italy increased from 15,113 to 17,660 over the last 24 hours, which is only a 16% increase, lower than the 20%-30% daily increases before and for the first few days of the lockdown.  So it looks like things may be starting to come under control there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 13, 2020, 02:37:50 PM
Here's a county-level map for Washington that is updated frequently with state data.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/albert.froling8261#!/vizhome/COVIDDashboard/COVID19WAState

So far: King County has 270 cases, Snohomish has 108, Pierce has 17, and others have less than 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o

Why?

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 03:08:22 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 12, 2020, 07:52:37 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:44:09 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 12, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 12, 2020, 07:33:46 PM
Ironic that people are cancelling trips and I'm trying to plan one.  I'm not looking to go over far, though.

Have a family Spring Break trip planned to Hilton Head booked through VRBO.  Got an email notifying me that they will not be issuing any refunds to people who cancel trips, so I guess we're going.  Not sure what we'll do if the flight gets canceled.
I say drive it.  Shouldn't be much traffic.

Amtrak hasn't suspended any services completely on the national network, just cut back on Acela service by two trips.  So that's an option.

Amtrak doesn't go from here to there, at least not in any way that doesn't take multiple days.

The railroads didn't do that back in the day, either.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: UnumProvident101 on March 13, 2020, 03:57:10 PM
I'm from Chattanooga, TN and now my county has one case of the Coronavirus and now the state of Tennessee is under a state of emergency
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 13, 2020, 03:58:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 01:38:51 PM
The latest Protezione Civile bulletin is out.  Cases in Italy increased from 15,113 to 17,660 over the last 24 hours, which is only a 16% increase, lower than the 20%-30% daily increases before and for the first few days of the lockdown.  So it looks like things may be starting to come under control there.
Maybe they stopped counting.
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538
Quote5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I'm saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 13, 2020, 04:01:25 PM
The two countries with the most cases and 0 deaths are Denmark and Norway. Sweden has only 1 death; everyone above them has 7 or more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 13, 2020, 04:01:25 PM
The two countries with the most cases and 0 deaths are Denmark and Norway. Sweden has only 1 death; everyone above them has 7 or more.

New York State I believe currently has 325 cases and no deaths reported (yet).




Quote from: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Why?

Just what I was going to ask.  :hmmm:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US 89 on March 13, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Why?

Just what I was going to ask.  :hmmm:

Look up the meaning of "corona" .
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 13, 2020, 04:35:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 13, 2020, 04:01:25 PM
The two countries with the most cases and 0 deaths are Denmark and Norway. Sweden has only 1 death; everyone above them has 7 or more.

New York State I believe currently has 325 cases and no deaths reported (yet).


Update: NY now has more than 400
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 04:39:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 13, 2020, 03:58:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 01:38:51 PM
The latest Protezione Civile bulletin is out.  Cases in Italy increased from 15,113 to 17,660 over the last 24 hours, which is only a 16% increase, lower than the 20%-30% daily increases before and for the first few days of the lockdown.  So it looks like things may be starting to come under control there.

Maybe they stopped counting.

Hmmm.  Hard to say--"not assessed" is not quite the same as saying no samples are taken when the person dies (as is how Kansas detected its first community-spread case).  But, yes, things are still looking quite grim in Italy either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 13, 2020, 04:51:55 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 04:39:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 13, 2020, 03:58:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 13, 2020, 01:38:51 PM
The latest Protezione Civile bulletin is out.  Cases in Italy increased from 15,113 to 17,660 over the last 24 hours, which is only a 16% increase, lower than the 20%-30% daily increases before and for the first few days of the lockdown.  So it looks like things may be starting to come under control there.

Maybe they stopped counting.

Hmmm.  Hard to say--"not assessed" is not quite the same as saying no samples are taken when the person dies (as is how Kansas detected its first community-spread case).  But, yes, things are still looking quite grim in Italy either way.
I assume it works like that:
Sample taken, labeled, put in a fridge for later analysis;
body bagged, labeled, loaded on a truck for dumping in mass grave;
ID is kept in the bottom drawer with a post-it note with date for eventual issuance of death certificate

Priority should be given to helping those who can be helped. Those who don't need urgent help (still breathing or already not breathing) can wait.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 13, 2020, 04:52:54 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200313/809a6edf5965d1b4276cbaf504a72348.jpg)


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 13, 2020, 05:02:20 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 13, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Why?

Just what I was going to ask.  :hmmm:

Look up the meaning of "corona" .

And the number of people that will actually make that connection?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:29:47 PM
Well, school's cancelled for the next two weeks. I'll be returning to school on March 30th.

Thoughts on it so far:
-Why's everybody buying so much toilet paper? How's that going to help?
-Isolation isn't the best way to deal with the outbreak (yes, Poland did that during the Black Death but technology has progressed). South Korea's approach (watch the confirmed cases very closely, and test literally everyone) works the best, considering the statistics so far (7,979 cases, 71 deaths).
-Obviously, we're doing a terrible job containing it, since we're at 2,210 cases and don't have the resources to thoroughly test everyone.
-I haven't felt terrible so far, except for a bout of stomach flu (my fault), and some minor colds. Pretty sure I'll be fine.
-Our house declared tissue and toilet paper rationing. I don't use much of both, so that's not a problem.
-Using the panic to plan a trip out of town this weekend. Might go to Ocean City, the Chesapeake Bay, Black Moshannon State Park...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:30:59 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 13, 2020, 05:02:20 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 13, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Why?

Just what I was going to ask.  :hmmm:

Look up the meaning of "corona" .

And the number of people that will actually make that connection?

So someone shouldn't make a pun because not everyone will get it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:36:42 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:29:47 PM
-Why's everybody buying so much toilet paper? How's that going to help?

Because everyone's fat, and they make massive messes every time they visit the toilet. At least that's my guess! :-D They're buying it up because they don't plan on leaving home for a while. Too bad more people don't have bidets.

People also aren't very thrifty with toilet paper, judging by how often toilets get backed up.

As someone with a pretty healthy diet and body (as of lately), I rarely go through a roll of TP quicker than two or three weeks. I have about 20 rolls in a utility room just from regular shopping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:42:09 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:36:42 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:29:47 PM
-Why's everybody buying so much toilet paper? How's that going to help?

Because everyone's fat, and they make massive messes every time they visit the toilet. At least that's my guess! :-D They're buying it up because they don't plan on leaving home for a while. Too bad more people don't have bidets.
Quick tangent on bidets: finally figured out the proper term for them (used to call them "fancy toilet seats"), after remembering using one at Au Pied du Cochon, a restaurant in Montreal. Probably the best bathroom break in my life, since the bidet had heated seats and a gentle spray option. Really want to buy one of those bidets when I have the cash, rather than installing an entire basin.

Of course, there's the Filipino bidet...a small cup of (preferably hot) water (500 mL measuring cup is what we use) and your fingers coated with soap. Some conservative toilet paper use later to dry off, and you've got a clean bum (and wash your hands of course!).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 05:42:43 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:36:42 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:29:47 PM
-Why's everybody buying so much toilet paper? How's that going to help?

Because everyone's fat, and they make massive messes every time they visit the toilet. At least that's my guess! :-D They're buying it up because they don't plan on leaving home for a while. Too bad more people don't have bidets.

People also aren't very thrifty with toilet paper, judging by how often toilets get backed up.

As someone with a pretty healthy diet and body (as of lately), I rarely go through a roll of TP quicker than two or three weeks. I have about 20 rolls in a utility room just from regular shopping.

Most of it has to down with all the messages people get from all over telling them to prepare to shelter in place for 14-30 days.  To that end paper towels and Kleenex is also flying off the shelves.   Most people I will say are noticeably excessive with their toilet paper usage when a square or two of the extra ply stuff probably would get them out of most sticky situations they find themselves in on the toilet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:46:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 05:42:43 PM
Most people I will say are noticeably excessive with their toilet paper usage when a square or two of the extra ply stuff probably would get them out of most sticky situations they find themselves in on the toilet.

Yeah, no shit. I don't know why people waste the stuff to begin with.

Quote from: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:42:09 PM
Quick tangent on bidets...Some conservative toilet paper use later to dry off, and you've got a clean bum (and wash your hands of course!).

Which reminds me...you still gotta dry off after a bidet. Guess there isn't much winning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:42:09 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:36:42 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 13, 2020, 05:29:47 PM
-Why's everybody buying so much toilet paper? How's that going to help?

Because everyone's fat, and they make massive messes every time they visit the toilet. At least that's my guess! :-D They're buying it up because they don't plan on leaving home for a while. Too bad more people don't have bidets.
Quick tangent on bidets: finally figured out the proper term for them (used to call them "fancy toilet seats"), after remembering using one at Au Pied du Cochon, a restaurant in Montreal. Probably the best bathroom break in my life, since the bidet had heated seats and a gentle spray option. Really want to buy one of those bidets when I have the cash, rather than installing an entire basin.

Of course, there's the Filipino bidet...a small cup of (preferably hot) water (500 mL measuring cup is what we use) and your fingers coated with soap. Some conservative toilet paper use later to dry off, and you've got a clean bum (and wash your hands of course!).

Since so many people will be telecommuting, you can just wait to shower until after you leave a load. Then you won't need TP, but your soap budget might increase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
Since so many people will be telecommuting, you can just wait to shower until after you leave a load. Then you won't need TP, but your soap budget might increase.

Two birds with one stone ... someone is thinking appropriately for a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:22:09 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
Since so many people will be telecommuting, you can just wait to shower until after you leave a load. Then you won't need TP, but your soap budget might increase.

Two birds with one stone ... someone is thinking appropriately for a pandemic.

I've noticed that the daily shower more is something that recent generations do even though it probably isn't necessary for most.  Most people who lived sedentary lifestyles before the Baby Boomer generation would generally only shower or take a bath once a week or as needed.  All that hot water on a daily basis isn't the best for healthy skin and shampooing every day usually strips healthy oils away.  A lot of cleaning needs could be scaled back without much of a fuss for a good majority of the population pandemic or not.  Hand washing on the other hand, well hopefully that's one of the good long term effects of what is going on right now because the general populace is pretty iffy at those standards. 

A random thought I had, does anyone remember ever hearing about toilet paper that would leave splinters?   Apparently splinterless toilet paper is a much more recent thing than I realized.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:34:49 PM
Interestingly my Niece's school has decided to keep athletic events and competitions going for the time being.  They ended up canceling a field to Old Sacramento in two weeks which made me think all sports would be next to go. 

Is anyone else getting bombarded by companies sending emails about Coronavirus prevention?  I'm getting about 25 a day this week.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Big John on March 13, 2020, 06:38:14 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:22:09 PM

A random thought I had, does anyone remember ever hearing about toilet paper that would leave splinters?   Apparently splinterless toilet paper is a much more recent thing than I realized.
That was invented and first use 1935 by Northern Tissue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 13, 2020, 06:39:51 PM
Quote from: Big John on March 13, 2020, 06:38:14 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:22:09 PM

A random thought I had, does anyone remember ever hearing about toilet paper that would leave splinters?   Apparently splinterless toilet paper is a much more recent thing than I realized.
That was invented and first use 1935 by Northern Tissue.

I remember crayons that would burn your fingers. I think crayons used to contain ammonia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 13, 2020, 08:27:49 PM
Center city Philly is dead, ive never seen it this dead on a friday night especially with nice weather.

I assume all the events were cancelled.

This will definitely slow the spread.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 08:35:28 PM
My Niece's school finally announced they are closed, apparently got a month.  I guess that I'll be dragging her out hiking Wednesday if I decide to go somewhere.  It definitely hasn't done her any good sitting around the house worrying constantly about what other people are saying.  I kind of think of I was 11 that I would be thrilled to be free of school for a month. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 08:58:50 PM
On eBay right now, free shipping. Lol

https://www.ebay.com/itm/DG-Home-Ultra-Strong-Toilet-Paper-2-Ply-4-MEGA-ROLLS-Please-Read-Description/114148392378?_trkparms=aid%3D111001%26algo%3DREC.SEED%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D225080%26meid%3Dc29ddea3576a4124810f5430731a06c8%26pid%3D100675%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D14%26mehot%3Dnone%26sd%3D114148392378%26itm%3D114148392378%26pmt%3D1%26noa%3D1%26pg%3D2380057&_trksid=p2380057.c100675.m4236&_trkparms=pageci%3Ad4cda6af-658e-11ea-a031-74dbd1800c3a%7Cparentrq%3Ad68c1d921700aca4775307eeffda0590%7Ciid%3A1
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 08:59:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:22:09 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
Since so many people will be telecommuting, you can just wait to shower until after you leave a load. Then you won't need TP, but your soap budget might increase.

Two birds with one stone ... someone is thinking appropriately for a pandemic.

I've noticed that the daily shower more is something that recent generations do even though it probably isn't necessary for most.  ....

"Necessary" or not, I find I feel filthy by midday if I don't shower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wxfree on March 13, 2020, 09:22:48 PM
Public high school sports and academic competitions in Texas are being delayed for two weeks.  A lot of districts are extending spring break by a week.

Stores are having to keep stocking shelves all day, which around here they normally do only at night, and some items run out between restocking.  During my only adventure into the supermarket since this started, I saw a run on soup and dry pasta.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 09:45:54 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 08:59:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:22:09 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
Since so many people will be telecommuting, you can just wait to shower until after you leave a load. Then you won't need TP, but your soap budget might increase.

Two birds with one stone ... someone is thinking appropriately for a pandemic.

I've noticed that the daily shower more is something that recent generations do even though it probably isn't necessary for most.  ....

"Necessary" or not, I find I feel filthy by midday if I don't shower.

Maybe 2-3 days for me if I don't exercise.  I usually run at least 30-40 miles a week and life 4-5 days.  It's rare that I get a string of days beyond two where I don't exercise in any way.  Usually it's my scalp that gets me after 48 hours.  When I camp I manage to get by with every 2-3 days no problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 09:52:25 PM
As if this coronavirus hysteria wasn't enough, now I just got a call that my Social Security number has been suspended.  :angry:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 13, 2020, 09:59:10 PM
Seriously, the panic buying is madness.  I had to go to three different stores just to get my usual weekly groceries.  Soup and vegetables are particularly hard to find.  It's as if people have forgotten that ordering groceries online to have them delivered to your door is a thing.

In World War II, we had rationing.  If this doesn't stop soon, we might need to introduce rationing now just to make sure everyone can get what they need.

Meanwhile, anybody else find it weird that we're prioritizing patient privacy over preventing infections?  I get that normally you don't want to publicize a person's medical history to prevent workplace discrimination, but this is a pandemic.  Relying on a person who tests positive to tell you everyone they came into contact with and then having the health department notify them is very inefficient and error prone.  By the time you notify everyone, they've already spread the virus to several other people.  And what if they forget someone?  Nobody knows the name of every single person they pass within six feet of over the course of their day.  Nobody.  It also wastes test results.  Say there was a case at a McDonald's somewhere - instead of identifying which McDonalds and what shift they worked so that only people exposed need to get tested, now everyone who has been to any McDonalds needs to get tested.  With tests in very short supply, that's practically criminal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 13, 2020, 10:00:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 09:45:54 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 08:59:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:22:09 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
Since so many people will be telecommuting, you can just wait to shower until after you leave a load. Then you won't need TP, but your soap budget might increase.

Two birds with one stone ... someone is thinking appropriately for a pandemic.

I've noticed that the daily shower more is something that recent generations do even though it probably isn't necessary for most.  ....

"Necessary" or not, I find I feel filthy by midday if I don't shower.

Maybe 2-3 days for me if I don't exercise.  I usually run at least 30-40 miles a week and life 4-5 days.  It's rare that I get a string of days beyond two where I don't exercise in any way.  Usually it's my scalp that gets me after 48 hours.  When I camp I manage to get by with every 2-3 days no problem.

And what do the others around you think???
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 13, 2020, 10:38:28 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 13, 2020, 09:59:10 PM
Meanwhile, anybody else find it weird that we're prioritizing patient privacy over preventing infections?  I get that normally you don't want to publicize a person's medical history to prevent workplace discrimination, but this is a pandemic.  Relying on a person who tests positive to tell you everyone they came into contact with and then having the health department notify them is very inefficient and error prone.  By the time you notify everyone, they've already spread the virus to several other people.  And what if they forget someone?  Nobody knows the name of every single person they pass within six feet of over the course of their day.  Nobody.  It also wastes test results.  Say there was a case at a McDonald's somewhere - instead of identifying which McDonalds and what shift they worked so that only people exposed need to get tested, now everyone who has been to any McDonalds needs to get tested.  With tests in very short supply, that's practically criminal.
People can get agitated and out of control. We're still holding up, it will be worse in a few weeks. Can you guarantee that once you name a person who infected a few neighbors, there wouldn't be a rally to disinfect their place by incinerating the building with all occupants?
I heard of one case when police had to intervene...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 10:53:59 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 13, 2020, 10:00:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 09:45:54 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 08:59:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 13, 2020, 06:22:09 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 13, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
Since so many people will be telecommuting, you can just wait to shower until after you leave a load. Then you won't need TP, but your soap budget might increase.

Two birds with one stone ... someone is thinking appropriately for a pandemic.

I've noticed that the daily shower more is something that recent generations do even though it probably isn't necessary for most.  ....

"Necessary" or not, I find I feel filthy by midday if I don't shower.

Maybe 2-3 days for me if I don't exercise.  I usually run at least 30-40 miles a week and life 4-5 days.  It's rare that I get a string of days beyond two where I don't exercise in any way.  Usually it's my scalp that gets me after 48 hours.  When I camp I manage to get by with every 2-3 days no problem.

And what do the others around you think???

They really don't think anything, most weeks I exercise 6-7 days.  When we're out camping all of are doing the same thing, even my Wife. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Duke87 on March 13, 2020, 11:00:38 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 13, 2020, 09:59:10 PM
Meanwhile, anybody else find it weird that we're prioritizing patient privacy over preventing infections?  I get that normally you don't want to publicize a person's medical history to prevent workplace discrimination, but this is a pandemic.

Well, HIPAA is still law of the land and patients' medical info can only be disclosed with their consent. Congress would need to act to suspend that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wxfree on March 13, 2020, 11:05:24 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 13, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Why?

Just what I was going to ask.  :hmmm:

Look up the meaning of "corona" .

How many people know the anatomical use of the term?  I didn't just discover it, I've known it for years because roadology isn't my only form of nerdhood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Revive 755 on March 13, 2020, 11:18:44 PM
The Illinois Tollway is going all-electronic due to Coronavirus (https://www.illinoistollway.com/media-center/inside-the-tollway?p_p_id=33&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-1&p_p_col_pos=1&p_p_col_count=2&_33_urlTitle=illinois-tollway-to-implement-all-electronic-tollingentryId832862entryId).  It will be interesting to see how they handle this at the mainline plazas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: SSOWorld on March 14, 2020, 12:24:30 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on March 13, 2020, 11:18:44 PM
The Illinois Tollway is going all-electronic due to Coronavirus (https://www.illinoistollway.com/media-center/inside-the-tollway?p_p_id=33&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-1&p_p_col_pos=1&p_p_col_count=2&_33_urlTitle=illinois-tollway-to-implement-all-electronic-tollingentryId832862entryId).  It will be interesting to see how they handle this at the mainline plazas.
The Illinois State Flower (Orange barrels)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:32:30 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 14, 2020, 12:24:30 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on March 13, 2020, 11:18:44 PM
The Illinois Tollway is going all-electronic due to Coronavirus (https://www.illinoistollway.com/media-center/inside-the-tollway?p_p_id=33&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-1&p_p_col_pos=1&p_p_col_count=2&_33_urlTitle=illinois-tollway-to-implement-all-electronic-tollingentryId832862entryId).  It will be interesting to see how they handle this at the mainline plazas.
The Illinois State Flower (Orange barrels)
I though that was Delaware's


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:39:05 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/e7e16183fc816cc868ceedd78f5c8866.jpg)

Someone bought 3 pallets of wipes from a Costco


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 12:54:04 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:39:05 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/e7e16183fc816cc868ceedd78f5c8866.jpg)

Someone bought 3 pallets of wipes from a Costco


iPhone

I know the whole deal with Costco is buying in bulk but putting a temporary purchase limit would grind a lot of things like that to a halt. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 14, 2020, 01:50:01 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:30:59 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 13, 2020, 05:02:20 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 13, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Why?

Just what I was going to ask.  :hmmm:

Look up the meaning of "corona" .

And the number of people that will actually make that connection?

So someone shouldn't make a bad pun because not everyone will get it?

FIFY

Unless churches are "closed" well past the Easter season, the average church-goer wouldn't think twice about any other meaning of the hymn text.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 14, 2020, 02:59:46 AM
I thought it was funny. Thought it helps that I speak a bit of Spanish.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 12:54:04 AM
I know the whole deal with Costco is buying in bulk but putting a temporary purchase limit would grind a lot of things like that to a halt. 

I'm stunned that they allowed it to begin with. Or, that other customers let them get away with it! This is where I expect fights to occur.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 14, 2020, 03:23:07 AM
My employer sent out a company-wide email saying that anyone who henceforth travels to any state that has declared a state of emergency, or travels on an airplane to anywhere, will be required to stay home from work for 14 days. They did not say whether this will count against you in terms of attendance, nor whether the leave will be paid (but knowing them, it won't be, unless you're a manager, in which case a beam of celestial light will descend from the heavens, along with a check made out in your name).

A couple hours after the email was sent, Texas declared a state of emergency.

The company's largest facility is on the TX/OK border, and a good chunk of that facility's employees are Texans. Whoopsie!

Kinda tempted to have lunch in Gainesville on my next day off...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 09:02:49 AM
^^^

I can't help but imagine employers open themselves up to serious liability if they really attempt to enforce something like that.  Similarly my vacation in late April to Idaho hasn't been approved which is more of a passive resistance to out of state travel (which wouldn't stop a theoretical four day weekend).

Quote from: jakeroot on March 14, 2020, 02:59:46 AM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 12:54:04 AM
I know the whole deal with Costco is buying in bulk but putting a temporary purchase limit would grind a lot of things like that to a halt. 

I'm stunned that they allowed it to begin with. Or, that other customers let them get away with it! This is where I expect fights to occur.

I'm surprised supply fights haven't happened, they certainly did when people hoarded in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.  There was some anger locally about older people hoarding locally here since they have the ability to go shopping more than age groups that more workers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 14, 2020, 09:08:55 AM
My wife missed a fight over toilet paper at our local Walmart by five minutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 14, 2020, 09:36:52 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 14, 2020, 03:23:07 AM
My employer sent out a company-wide email saying that anyone who henceforth travels to any state that has declared a state of emergency, or travels on an airplane to anywhere, will be required to stay home from work for 14 days. They did not say whether this will count against you in terms of attendance, nor whether the leave will be paid (but knowing them, it won't be, unless you're a manager, in which case a beam of celestial light will descend from the heavens, along with a check made out in your name).

A couple hours after the email was sent, Texas declared a state of emergency.


Being that a State of Emergency is to simply reduce red tape for spending purposes and emergency relief (such as for calling out the National Guard), it really doesn't have anything to do with the number of people being sick.

You can also tell when a company lives in an area without a subway system, which is inheritably more germ-infested than an airplane.  I guess if you can drive to Chicago and ride around on the El, you're fine.  Fly to Omaha and you're assumed contagious. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 14, 2020, 11:20:39 AM
Went to Wegmans this morning shortly before 8:00 to do our regular grocery shopping. Meat was mostly picked over, though I got a corned beef brisket, some burger meat, and two steaks (no pork or chicken, though). No eggs, no potatoes; I got those from a local produce place nearby. The checkout line wrapped two-thirds of the way around the store's interior perimeter, but surprisingly it was only a 20-minute wait–at the front, they had an employee acting as a sort of traffic cop sending people to particular checkouts to keep it moving. Worked great.

But the weird part.....the store had one roll of TP. Not one package. One roll, and a beat-up looking roll it was.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/ee25e9a0c8f1b1360a16e3a3a7015f8f.jpg)


Meat department:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/c8e191840181d0e2bb1203e1e6a323b9.jpg)


The checkout line. It was actually longer when I first got there. From this point, it ran all the way to the far end of the store before turning past the empty TP section.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/3e4c9b37727664e1c91e5fd4a6af7b0f.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 14, 2020, 11:20:39 AM
Went to Wegmans this morning shortly before 8:00 to do our regular grocery shopping. Meat was mostly picked over, though I got a corned beef brisket, some burger meat, and two steaks (no pork or chicken, though). No eggs, no potatoes; I got those from a local produce place nearby. The checkout line wrapped two-thirds of the way around the store's interior perimeter, but surprisingly it was only a 20-minute wait–at the front, they had an employee acting as a sort of traffic cop sending people to particular checkouts to keep it moving. Worked great.

But the weird part.....the store had one roll of TP. Not one package. One roll, and a beat-up looking roll it was.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/ee25e9a0c8f1b1360a16e3a3a7015f8f.jpg)


Meat department:

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/c8e191840181d0e2bb1203e1e6a323b9.jpg)


The checkout line. It was actually longer when I first got there. From this point, it ran all the way to the far end of the store before turning past the empty TP section.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/3e4c9b37727664e1c91e5fd4a6af7b0f.jpg)
People do know some stores will still be open right?


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 14, 2020, 11:34:53 AM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 14, 2020, 01:50:01 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 13, 2020, 05:30:59 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 13, 2020, 05:02:20 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 13, 2020, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 13, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Quote from: ixnay on March 13, 2020, 02:58:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 12, 2020, 09:51:16 PM
Hymns inappropriate for use when churches reopen: "Crown Him with Many Crowns."  :-o
Why?

Just what I was going to ask.  :hmmm:

Look up the meaning of "corona" .

And the number of people that will actually make that connection?

So someone shouldn't make a bad pun because not everyone will get it?

FIFY

Unless churches are "closed" well past the Easter season, the average church-goer wouldn't think twice about any other meaning of the hymn text.

"Bad pun" is redundant! If the pun causes moans, I moan. If it causes groans, I groan. If it causes moans and groans, I tell it to other people!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?
You would hope...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 14, 2020, 11:52:30 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 09:02:49 AM
^^^

I can't help but imagine employers open themselves up to serious liability if they really attempt to enforce something like that.  Similarly my vacation in late April to Idaho hasn't been approved which is more of a passive resistance to out of state travel (which wouldn't stop a theoretical four day weekend).

Among the calls/emails I've been getting through work (an insurance company headquartered in Canada but has a large US presence) are discussions on the differences in Canadian and US labor laws on such matters.

Among the points raised was that US companies are very limited in their ability to control what happens on employees' own time.  Therefore, in the US, we are not prohibiting personal travel....but we are requiring that employees inform their managers of their itineraries (origin, destination, layovers).  We can "ask" that employees that are showing symptoms go home, but we can't actually require they do so, short of closing the office.

(YMMV; that's just the interpretation of the rules coming from corporate legal and HR.)

In Canada...employers are apparently allowed to butt in a bit more.

It's moot for me.  I work from home, and the company won't pay for travel, attendance at professional meetings/classes, etc. until this all blows over.   It's also pointless for me to come back to Memphis, until my father's retirement community gives the all clear.  This will probably end up being the first time in almost 20 years where I've stayed "local" for more than 6 weeks at a time.

I think relying on official states of emergency is naïve as a basis for imposing attendance restrictions.  In the US, a state of emergency is a legal construct that lets the government bend its rules and deviate from its budget.   You really need some other metric to go by (official travel warnings, quarantine zones, etc.).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 14, 2020, 11:58:24 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?

Stores will probably be open.  Note the word "probably".

It's good practice to always keep supplies on hand to be self-sufficient for 2 weeks, just in case. Some folks may be realizing that at this late date.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 14, 2020, 12:05:18 PM
http://www.microbe.tv/twip/twip-181/

This week in Parasitology does an update on COVID-19 and yes they normally talk about parasites.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 14, 2020, 11:58:24 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?

Stores will probably be open.  Note the word "probably".

It's good practice to always keep supplies on hand to be self-sufficient for 2 weeks, just in case. Some folks may be realizing that at this late date.
Stores are still open in Italy, they are allowing people to go outside.

They just cannot be in large groups or gatherings.

This isnt a hurricane you can still go outside.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 12:31:35 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 14, 2020, 11:58:24 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?

Stores will probably be open.  Note the word "probably".

It's good practice to always keep supplies on hand to be self-sufficient for 2 weeks, just in case. Some folks may be realizing that at this late date.
Stores are still open in Italy, they are allowing people to go outside.

They just cannot be in large groups or gatherings.

This isnt a hurricane you can still go outside.


iPhone
Assuming there are enough people willing to work checkout
Assuming  stores didn't close for disinfection
Assuming warehouses didn't send workers home because of infection on site
Assuming processing plants didn't send everyone home as  well to replenish warehouses after the mad rush.
so on so on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 12:44:23 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 12:31:35 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 14, 2020, 11:58:24 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?

Stores will probably be open.  Note the word "probably".

It's good practice to always keep supplies on hand to be self-sufficient for 2 weeks, just in case. Some folks may be realizing that at this late date.
Stores are still open in Italy, they are allowing people to go outside.

They just cannot be in large groups or gatherings.

This isnt a hurricane you can still go outside.


iPhone
Assuming there are enough people willing to work checkout
Assuming  stores didn't close for disinfection
Assuming warehouses didn't send workers home because of infection on site
Assuming processing plants didn't send everyone home as  well to replenish warehouses after the mad rush.
so on so on.

I could be wrong given it's Italy but I would assume companies would still want to make money, or at least soften the blow on the Profit & Loss Statement. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 12:55:35 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 12:44:23 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 12:31:35 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 14, 2020, 11:58:24 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?

Stores will probably be open.  Note the word "probably".

It's good practice to always keep supplies on hand to be self-sufficient for 2 weeks, just in case. Some folks may be realizing that at this late date.
Stores are still open in Italy, they are allowing people to go outside.

They just cannot be in large groups or gatherings.

This isnt a hurricane you can still go outside.


iPhone
Assuming there are enough people willing to work checkout
Assuming  stores didn't close for disinfection
Assuming warehouses didn't send workers home because of infection on site
Assuming processing plants didn't send everyone home as  well to replenish warehouses after the mad rush.
so on so on.
.

I could be wrong given it's Italy but I would assume companies would still want to make money, or at least soften the blow on the Profit & Loss Statement.
There is a gap between "would want to" and "would be able to". Besides, with 80% of US living paycheck to paycheck, money on hand may become an issue

Of course, closing down grocery stores is close to the most pessimistic scenario - and even that would come after rationing is implemented But taking those stores running normally for granted is optimistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 01:02:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 12:55:35 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 12:44:23 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 12:31:35 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 14, 2020, 11:58:24 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?

Stores will probably be open.  Note the word "probably".

It's good practice to always keep supplies on hand to be self-sufficient for 2 weeks, just in case. Some folks may be realizing that at this late date.
Stores are still open in Italy, they are allowing people to go outside.

They just cannot be in large groups or gatherings.

This isnt a hurricane you can still go outside.


iPhone
Assuming there are enough people willing to work checkout
Assuming  stores didn't close for disinfection
Assuming warehouses didn't send workers home because of infection on site
Assuming processing plants didn't send everyone home as  well to replenish warehouses after the mad rush.
so on so on.
.

I could be wrong given it's Italy but I would assume companies would still want to make money, or at least soften the blow on the Profit & Loss Statement.
There is a gap between "would want to" and "would be able to". Besides, with 80% of US living paycheck to paycheck, money on hand may become an issue

Of course, closing down grocery stores is close to the most pessimistic scenario - and even that would come after rationing is implemented But taking those stores running normally for granted is optimistic.

In the context of the U.S. given that's the case I would assume that most would work or would chose to if they were given a choice.  State Side I don't really see stores really shuttering unless they are ordered to do by a public authority.  The workforce essentially is a captive audience given they usually are in lower wage brackets.  Really if it got that point where stores are ordered to be closed then it would be approaching a national quarantine anyways or part of it.  So far it's been public agencies shuttering and mostly sports/events entities on the private side so far. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 14, 2020, 01:09:10 PM
A friend in Alameda, CA, sent a photo of the completely empty frozen food section at Trader Joes.  Meanwhile, I did go out yesterday morning to make sure I do have plenty of food in the house for a couple weeks and it wasn't so bad in Tacoma, WA (other than no TP to be found at a Safeway).  I realized I had forgotten rice, which is important since I like to make stir fries, but had no trouble getting a 5 pound bag at a pharmacy where I was getting my monthly prescription refilled.  Maybe here in Washington we're already a bit more used to the situation and feel less immediate panic.

People are forgetting that while this virus should be taken seriously, it's not like Stephen King's The Stand with a 97% mortality rate.  Grocery stores will likely stay open the entire time this situation is going on.  And hopefully people just learn better hygiene habits in the meantime (myself included).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 01:12:58 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 14, 2020, 01:09:10 PM
A friend in Alameda, CA, sent a photo of the completely empty frozen food section at Trader Joes.  Meanwhile, I did go out yesterday morning to make sure I do have plenty of food in the house for a couple weeks and it wasn't so bad in Tacoma, WA (other than no TP to be found at a Safeway).  I realized I had forgotten rice, which is important since I like to make stir fries, but had no trouble getting a 5 pound bag at a pharmacy where I was getting my monthly prescription refilled.  Maybe here in Washington we're already a bit more used to the situation and feel less immediate panic.

People are forgetting that while this virus should be taken seriously, it's not like Stephen King's The Stand with a 97% mortality rate.  Grocery stores will likely stay open the entire time this situation is going on.  And hopefully people just learn better hygiene habits in the meantime (myself included).
+1 Thank you for the sensible input.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 01:31:27 PM
Ooooo...I need to add The Stand (Captain Tripps and Randall Flagg...good times) to my movie playlist for tomorrow.  What are some other good pandemic movies that we can come up?  I'm partial to the first two George Romero Dead movies (which isn't exactly stated to be a pandemic in either film).   
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 14, 2020, 01:51:52 PM
Latest Protezione Civile bulletin:  21,157 cases in Italy (19.8% increase over yesterday).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 14, 2020, 04:24:22 PM
https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Virginia-flu-season-782-deaths-so-far-three-of-them-pediatric-568633301.html (https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Virginia-flu-season-782-deaths-so-far-three-of-them-pediatric-568633301.html)   Now there are reports that 782 Deaths in the flu in Virginia but given the latest issue has been overshadowed by the COVID-19 scares.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 04:38:43 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 14, 2020, 04:24:22 PM
https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Virginia-flu-season-782-deaths-so-far-three-of-them-pediatric-568633301.html (https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Virginia-flu-season-782-deaths-so-far-three-of-them-pediatric-568633301.html)   Now there are reports that 782 Deaths in the flu in Virginia but given the latest issue has been overshadowed by the COVID-19 scares.

That's the thing, the Flu is a known quantity.  That number would probably need to be way higher to even get really mainstream attention.  It's the unknown of something like COVID-19 that really spooks people since they don't have answers and don't have anyone telling them what expect. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bugo on March 14, 2020, 04:56:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 01, 2020, 07:52:02 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 07:45:47 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Best advice for dealing with this shit?

Continue standard hygiene behavior practices as usual.


Good Point

Just rub Vick's on that Coronavirus, problem solved...or at least that's what my wife thinks.  Usually that Vick's comes in on the waning days of disease (for me) and somehow steals all the credit as a miracle cure. 

Pour Robitussin on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 05:10:22 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 14, 2020, 04:56:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 01, 2020, 07:52:02 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 01, 2020, 07:45:47 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 01, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Best advice for dealing with this shit?

Continue standard hygiene behavior practices as usual.


Good Point

Just rub Vick's on that Coronavirus, problem solved...or at least that's what my wife thinks.  Usually that Vick's comes in on the waning days of disease (for me) and somehow steals all the credit as a miracle cure. 

Pour Robitussin on it.

Didn't Chris Rock do a skit once that involved his grand parents trying to use Robitussin to heal a broken bone?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 14, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
All you need is Campbell's chicken noodle soup, DayQuil, and Sprite.

https://youtu.be/sckSb2-4vp8
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 05:23:17 PM
Didn't Cartman and Kyle ended up being cured of AIDS after injections of cash?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 05:30:04 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200314/9a1dcb3b43f363b9144ecec526629b83.jpg)


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PM
One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 14, 2020, 07:02:49 PM
This Coronavirus stuff is giving chills down my spine

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 07:14:18 PM
Spooky Scary Skeletons give me shivers down my spine:

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 14, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PM
One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   :meh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 14, 2020, 07:19:03 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 14, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PM
One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   :meh:

As I said before, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark have extremely few deaths compared to the number of cases, although it's not quite as good as when I said it before.




Madagascar and Greenland still aren't infected, which makes me think that we live in the game world of Plague, Inc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 07:51:31 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 14, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PM
One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   :meh:
Please hold on any comparison until intensive care is back to normal operations, some time in 2022 I assume. I predicted 1 million cases in US by May 1 upthread, and I still think that will be the case. That is when shit will start hitting the fan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 07:52:34 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 14, 2020, 07:19:03 PM
Madagascar and Greenland still aren't infected, which makes me think that we live in the game world of Plague, Inc.
yeah, they overdid this ad campaign...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 14, 2020, 08:02:49 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 07:51:31 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 14, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PM
One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   :meh:
Please hold on any comparison until intensive care is back to normal operations, some time in 2022 I assume. I predicted 1 million cases in US by May 1 upthread, and I still think that will be the case. That is when shit will start hitting the fan.
Hence why I scared

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: KEVIN_224 on March 14, 2020, 08:03:32 PM
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/20-connecticut-residents-test-positive-for-covid-19/2238718/

20 cases here in Connecticut at last check. 15 cases in Fairfield County, 3 in Litchfield, one in New Haven and, closest to me, 1 case in Hartford County. A woman in her 80s from Rocky Hill. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 14, 2020, 08:11:55 PM
It should be mentioned that South Korea is probably the most reliable source for true statistics on the spread and fatality rate for COVID-19, as the national healthcare system has mandated testing of all age groups and made it readily available.

Both things that the U.S. is way behind on. Washington is up to 650 known confirmed cases but the actual number is likely several times that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 14, 2020, 08:41:51 PM
On a side note,  the local 24 hour Walmarts will be closing between 11pm and 6am for restocking and cleaning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 14, 2020, 08:52:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PMChina and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.

I'd contest these assumptions for China and Italy.

As a general rule of thumb, deaths per year in a developed country in peacetime are about 1% of population.  Most of the deaths from coronavirus have been in Wuhan, which has a population of 8 million.  The local death management industry is therefore geared up to handle an approximate "base load" of 80,000 deaths a year, or 20,000 deaths a quarter.  3,000 additional deaths in about three months is an overload factor of about 15%, which I would not expect to trigger problems.

In Italy the bulk of the deaths have been in Lombardy:  1441 deaths for the whole country currently, 966 deaths in Lombardy.  The region has a population of 10 million, so its death management industry is set up to handle 100,000 deaths annually, or 2,000 deaths a week, or 300 deaths a day.  966 deaths over a period of three weeks (first death in the region was on February 22) is an overload factor of about 16%.  The more serious problem, as I see it, is that the rate of death is accelerating, with March 1 being the last day with deaths in the single figures and most of the recent days having deaths in the low three figures.  Yesterday (March 13) there were 146 deaths, which is an overload factor for the day of 50%.

Philadelphia in 1918 is a useful counterexample.  It had a population of about 1.6 million, and during a six-week period in October and November 1918 it had 60,000 influenza cases with 12,000 deaths.  The death management industry was geared to handle only 16,000 deaths annually, or roughly 4,000 over a quarter and 2,000 over a six-week period.  12,000 deaths over six weeks thus translates to a factor of six (500%) overload.  It is no wonder they were collecting dead bodies by wagon, tagging them, and laying them in mass graves, including one at 2nd and Luzerne (https://www.google.com/maps/@40.0112283,-75.1298833,3a,75y,181.55h,90.35t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s0ruIvPYEOt8QtpZwXhiMMw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192) that was dug (https://www.upenn.edu/gazette/1198/lynch3.html) by the Bureau of Highways (PennDOT's ancestor?).

Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PMI'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

I think this crisis will push us to realize that, even in rich countries, what we might think of as a dignified send-off is largely the preserve of the middle and upper classes.  Even when there is not a crisis on, the poor get disposed of in a fairly perfunctory way--I've seen YouTube video of three dead bodies being loaded into a Matthews cremator at the same time.

As for mass graves being dug for coronavirus victims, there is little doubt that is happening right now in Iran, and I expect to see more of it once the virus becomes well established in Africa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 14, 2020, 08:58:05 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 14, 2020, 09:08:55 AM
My wife missed a fight over toilet paper at our local Walmart by five minutes.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200315/5887c703bcc1116f190977bcaf8292cd.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 09:49:06 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 14, 2020, 08:52:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 05:44:19 PMChina and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.

I'd contest these assumptions for China and Italy.
Actually leaked videos from Iran are not that bad either. Certainly not plowing meat.
There were rumors about Wuhan cremation systems working over capacity, but those are just that, rumors. With reduced hands on deck due to disease and isolation, things may  be not smooth.
It is more about safety above all, as bodies are contagious for days. So sealed body bags, relatives limited access to dead. Which is, again, yet another layer of stress.
And yet we may see multifold demand to capacity ratio in near future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: golden eagle on March 14, 2020, 11:40:15 PM
We have six cases here in Mississippi. The closest one to me is in Copiah County, about a half hour south.

There has been a death from the virus in the New Orleans area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 14, 2020, 11:43:31 PM
Is anyone else's subway doing this?
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200315/c3bb360777ab195b840d01da56424d9c.jpg)

SM-G965U

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 15, 2020, 12:06:49 AM
^^^

Yes, and even the Starbuck's around here aren't letting you use your own cup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 15, 2020, 01:13:04 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 14, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on March 14, 2020, 11:34:40 AM
People do know some stores will still be open right?
You would hope...
I don't.  I want the idiot panickers' to be sitting with their rotting food in their homes while I can eventually go shopping on my normal schedule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Brandon on March 15, 2020, 01:47:54 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 14, 2020, 08:52:09 PM
Philadelphia in 1918 is a useful counterexample.  It had a population of about 1.6 million, and during a six-week period in October and November 1918 it had 60,000 influenza cases with 12,000 deaths.  The death management industry was geared to handle only 16,000 deaths annually, or roughly 4,000 over a quarter and 2,000 over a six-week period.  12,000 deaths over six weeks thus translates to a factor of six (500%) overload.  It is no wonder they were collecting dead bodies by wagon, tagging them, and laying them in mass graves, including one at 2nd and Luzerne (https://www.google.com/maps/@40.0112283,-75.1298833,3a,75y,181.55h,90.35t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s0ruIvPYEOt8QtpZwXhiMMw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192) that was dug (https://www.upenn.edu/gazette/1198/lynch3.html) by the Bureau of Highways (PennDOT's ancestor?).

1918 Philadelphia is also a good case for why large events should be delayed or canceled outright.  The reason things got so bad is that the organizers of the Liberty Bond parade and rally went on with the event even though they were told that it might not be a good idea due to the flu pandemic going on.  They went ahead anyway, and many, many more people got sick with the flu than otherwise might have as they attended the parade and rally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/flu-epidemic-hits-philadelphia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/12/pandemic-parade-flu-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 15, 2020, 04:46:18 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

Curfews are incredibly silly. I work swing shift, so my normal sleeping schedule is to wake up in the early afternoon and go to bed around 5am or so. That means that I can do my shopping at 11:30pm when I'm on the way home from work and thus socially distance myself from far more people than I'd be able to if I was forced to do it during normal business hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bugo on March 15, 2020, 06:53:22 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 07:52:19 PM
I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.

And you could spread the virus to somebody who isn't healthy enough to fight it. Your attitude is extremely selfish and not cool at all. If you truly don't care if others die because of your incompetence, then that tells me a lot about what kind of person you are. It's the whole "I got mine, fuck you" attitude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bugo on March 15, 2020, 07:25:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 05:10:22 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 14, 2020, 04:56:08 PM
Pour Robitussin on it.
Didn't Chris Rock do a skit once that involved his grand parents trying to use Robitussin to heal a broken bone?

That's what I was referencing. Good catch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 15, 2020, 08:22:45 AM
Quote from: bugo on March 15, 2020, 06:53:22 AMAnd you could spread the virus to somebody who isn't healthy enough to fight it. Your attitude is extremely selfish and not cool at all. If you truly don't care if others die because of your incompetence, then that tells me a lot about what kind of person you are. It's the whole "I got mine, fuck you" attitude.

Note also that it's not just the "you could spread the virus to a high risk person" risk (since it's tempting to rebut with "but I don't come into contact with any such people" or "those people should go into isolation"); it's "you could spread the virus to others who come into contact with high risk people".

The its-all-about-my-comfort-and-convenience attitude is a major reason why entire countries are going into lockdown.  It's a step being taken because too many people cannot be trusted to do their part in slowing the spread of the virus to a manageable rate.

(Or, I might just be moderately annoyed because there was a big party last night on my floor of the hotel I'm currently at.  At one point, there was a small crowd of 20 somethings doing the opposite of "social distancing" outside my door.  A couple of them were coughing....)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 15, 2020, 08:44:46 AM
Quote from: bugo on March 15, 2020, 07:25:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 14, 2020, 05:10:22 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 14, 2020, 04:56:08 PM
Pour Robitussin on it.
Didn't Chris Rock do a skit once that involved his grand parents trying to use Robitussin to heal a broken bone?

That's what I was referencing. Good catch.

Title: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 15, 2020, 09:24:55 AM
Wow. While I'm not Muslim, if you've ever seen pictures of how crowded the Grand Mosque in Mecca gets, this picture from a day or two ago really gives a sense of how much this situation is disrupting things.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200315/90410112665b371b82ea759fee9c5a1f.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jemacedo9 on March 15, 2020, 10:18:06 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 15, 2020, 08:22:45 AM
Quote from: bugo on March 15, 2020, 06:53:22 AMAnd you could spread the virus to somebody who isn't healthy enough to fight it. Your attitude is extremely selfish and not cool at all. If you truly don't care if others die because of your incompetence, then that tells me a lot about what kind of person you are. It's the whole "I got mine, fuck you" attitude.

Note also that it's not just the "you could spread the virus to a high risk person" risk (since it's tempting to rebut with "but I don't come into contact with any such people" or "those people should go into isolation"); it's "you could spread the virus to others who come into contact with high risk people".

The its-all-about-my-comfort-and-convenience attitude is a major reason why entire countries are going into lockdown.  It's a step being taken because too many people cannot be trusted to do their part in slowing the spread of the virus to a manageable rate.


It's this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
your comment will be used as an example in the last chapter of US history books for decades to come
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
your comment will be used as an example in the last chapter of US history books for decades to come
are you suggesting this virus is the end of the US or that we will lockdown this time and change the course of this country forever?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:01:27 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
your comment will be used as an example in the last chapter of US history books for decades to come
are you suggesting this virus is the end of the US or that we will lockdown this time and change the course of this country forever?
If quarantine is not taken seriously, first one definitely becomes an option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 15, 2020, 12:03:11 PM
I read this interesting article earlier today:
http://nautil.us/issue/83/intelligence/the-man-who-saw-the-pandemic-coming (http://nautil.us/issue/83/intelligence/the-man-who-saw-the-pandemic-coming)

It's from a scientific perspective and one of the things he points out is that we aren't doing well at a global response.  The other is that this virus has the potential to mutate over the summer.  It could come back worse, or it could turn into something as mild as a common cold.  But we just lack data and information at the moment.

There's going to be a truckload of speculation from all walks of life on the internet.  I'm trying my best to cut the signal to noise ratio to hopefully learn facts about the situation so I can plan my coming months properly.  I have elderly relatives who I love dearly, but for the moment there's no way in hell I'm going to pop by for a visit because of the heightened risk for the elderly (and my uncle already has a heart condition).  I will try to keep my cupboards filled with groceries to last 2-3 weeks (and really, I should also try to get my earthquake kit prepared, since I live in the PNW where we could have a major quake any day).  Being prudent and properly prepared is important...not panicked. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 15, 2020, 12:22:57 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 15, 2020, 08:22:45 AMThe its-all-about-my-comfort-and-convenience attitude is a major reason why entire countries are going into lockdown.  It's a step being taken because too many people cannot be trusted to do their part in slowing the spread of the virus to a manageable rate.

Yep. On a state level, this is a perfect example:

https://twitter.com/NC_Governor/status/1238925712733552640 (https://twitter.com/NC_Governor/status/1238925712733552640)

There's speculation that this was in response to Billie Eilish continuing with her concert in Raleigh, which pissed off Cooper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 15, 2020, 12:23:00 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 15, 2020, 06:53:22 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 07:52:19 PM
I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.

And you could spread the virus to somebody who isn't healthy enough to fight it. Your attitude is extremely selfish and not cool at all. If you truly don't care if others die because of your incompetence, then that tells me a lot about what kind of person you are. It's the whole "I got mine, fuck you" attitude.
Traveling is a luxury I cannot normally afford.  Do you expect me or anyone else who has over a month of time off from work to stay put?

There are still places you can go where large people don't congregate. Hiking, national parks, the beach.

The same sanitation and social distancing practices would still apply. 

It's not like you would be going and throwing caution to the wind.  The purpose of my post isn't to "stick it to the man".  It is to say that you can travel within the limitations.  I am at no greater of a risk for passing the virus along whether I'm at my local Walmart or touring the Everglades.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 15, 2020, 12:24:51 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 15, 2020, 12:23:00 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 15, 2020, 06:53:22 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 11, 2020, 07:52:19 PM
I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.

And you could spread the virus to somebody who isn't healthy enough to fight it. Your attitude is extremely selfish and not cool at all. If you truly don't care if others die because of your incompetence, then that tells me a lot about what kind of person you are. It's the whole "I got mine, fuck you" attitude.
Traveling is a luxury I cannot normally afford.  Do you expect me or anyone else who has over a month of time off from work to stay put?

There are still places you can go where large people don't congregate. Hiking, national parks, the beach.

The same sanitation and social distancing practices would still apply. 

It's not like you would be going and throwing caution to the wind.  The purpose of my post isn't to "stick it to the man".  It is to say that you can travel within the limitations.  I am at no greater of a risk for passing the virus along whether I'm at my local Walmart or touring the Everglades.

If you're going by plane, be careful at airports. Driving is perfectly fine, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 12:25:45 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 15, 2020, 12:23:00 PMThere are still places you can go where large people don't congregate. Hiking, national parks, the beach.

Or roadmeets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ftballfan on March 15, 2020, 12:29:37 PM
Many European countries are shutting down all air travel. I wonder if the IATA will recommend all airlines worldwide stop international flights for the next 2-4 weeks (exceptions would be made for cargo and repatriation flights).

Disney World is planning on a medium to long term closure (a month or more) as they're sending all international workers home if possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 15, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 15, 2020, 12:23:00 PM
There are still places you can go where large people don't congregate. Hiking, national parks, the beach.

If I have a gap between getting hired for a new position (I have interviews going on this week..and it's for a remote position so I can work from home), I am definitely thinking of a road trip to national parks.  But that definitely has me thinking of the logistics of doing so, since many restaurants might not be open and hotel accommodations need some consideration.  (I don't camp, so ultimately I might not go anywhere)  Luckily here in Washington there's lots of places to visit that'll be free of crowds and can be done in a day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:01:27 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
your comment will be used as an example in the last chapter of US history books for decades to come
are you suggesting this virus is the end of the US or that we will lockdown this time and change the course of this country forever?
If quarantine is not taken seriously, first one definitely becomes an option.
Could you please elaborate? Even with the worse scenario I fail to see how that is even remotely possible. A burden on the economy and day to day life sure. A horrible tragedy with many losing loved ones sure. But the end of the country?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 15, 2020, 12:40:10 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
Could you please elaborate? Even with the worse scenario I fail to see how that is even remotely possible. A burden on the economy and day to day life sure. A horrible tragedy with many loosing loved ones sure. But the end of the country?

Now please note that my thoughts on this matter are PURELY SPECULATION and I know far more about photography than finance, so take this with the appropriate grains of salt.  Covid-19 alone is not going to cause the end of the country.  However, it might be pulling back the curtain on an economic and financial system that is already stressed and fragile as heck.  The stock market's roller coaster is an example of that.  There's been other stories in the past few months that suggest something unpleasant is ahead for the economy and perhaps this pandemic is just a match that lights a major bonfire.  Things are unfolding at a pace that is hard to process on a day to day basis.  After all, at no other point in modern times have all the major sports leagues shut down, giving ESPN nothing to do. 

With luck and some level headed thinking, I hope we can come out of this with a better awareness of the interconnectedness of our world, more respect for one other (even if our views on political policies differ) and better knowledge about pandemics to avoid a catastrophe if another happens. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:43:09 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:01:27 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
your comment will be used as an example in the last chapter of US history books for decades to come
are you suggesting this virus is the end of the US or that we will lockdown this time and change the course of this country forever?
If quarantine is not taken seriously, first one definitely becomes an option.
Could you please elaborate? Even with the worse scenario I fail to see how that is even remotely possible. A burden on the economy and day to day life sure. A horrible tragedy with many loosing loved ones sure. But the end of the country?
Well, imagine what would happen when US economy plunges, the dollar is not seen as a rock-solid world currency, and US is actually forced to have balanced budget and zero trade balance - if not paying off debt to the creditors who also try to recover e.g. China and Japan?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 15, 2020, 12:47:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:43:09 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:01:27 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
your comment will be used as an example in the last chapter of US history books for decades to come
are you suggesting this virus is the end of the US or that we will lockdown this time and change the course of this country forever?
If quarantine is not taken seriously, first one definitely becomes an option.
Could you please elaborate? Even with the worse scenario I fail to see how that is even remotely possible. A burden on the economy and day to day life sure. A horrible tragedy with many loosing loved ones sure. But the end of the country?
Well, imagine what would happen when US economy plunges, the dollar is not seen as a rock-solid world currency, and US is actually forced to have balanced budget and zero trade balance - if not paying off debt to the creditors who also try to recover e.g. China and Japan?

You're aware credit on the level of nations doesn't work like it does when you fail to pay a credit card or default on a mortgage? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:52:52 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 15, 2020, 12:47:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:43:09 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 12:01:27 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 15, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 15, 2020, 03:30:24 AM
I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

If our current measures don't work, it's because the pandemic is past the point where restrictions work. No lockdown will change that. Even after the lockdown, the number of cases in Italy is soaring. South Korea was a lot less strict, and their cases are dropping now.

Freedom of assembly should put the kibosh on having an ineffective lockdown.
your comment will be used as an example in the last chapter of US history books for decades to come
are you suggesting this virus is the end of the US or that we will lockdown this time and change the course of this country forever?
If quarantine is not taken seriously, first one definitely becomes an option.
Could you please elaborate? Even with the worse scenario I fail to see how that is even remotely possible. A burden on the economy and day to day life sure. A horrible tragedy with many loosing loved ones sure. But the end of the country?
Well, imagine what would happen when US economy plunges, the dollar is not seen as a rock-solid world currency, and US is actually forced to have balanced budget and zero trade balance - if not paying off debt to the creditors who also try to recover e.g. China and Japan?

You're aware credit on the level of nations doesn't work like it does when you fail to pay a credit card or default on a mortgage?

Yes, but I heard "Obama is not my president" and "Trump is not my president"  more often than I would like to. I can easily see states trying to preserve their wealth regardless to what happens with the big country - and constitution be damned. It happened before, including US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 15, 2020, 02:47:41 PM
I'm just hoping that this leads to a business culture change away from fetishizing attendance above all else. I would happily socially distance myself, even without pay, for a month, but my employer demands that I show up as usual and deal with throngs of people with questionable sanitation practices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 15, 2020, 03:04:12 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 15, 2020, 02:47:41 PM
I'm just hoping that this leads to a business culture change away from fetishizing attendance above all else. I would happily socially distance myself, even without pay, for a month, but my employer demands that I show up as usual and deal with throngs of people with questionable sanitation practices.

I've been working for tech startups for nearly a decade and have exclusively been remote the entire time.  I've been pretty lucky to continually land remote jobs.  But it's surprising how many tech companies buy into this idea that people only productive in an office and can't possibly be trusted at home.  Since much of Seattle's tech industry is suddenly doing work from home (and probably seeing little drop in productivity), the culture might finally change.  Think of the reduction in emissions and easing of congestion on freeways if people who can work from home are allowed to do so on a permanent basis in the future. 

Though that would be the death knell of WeWork...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: skluth on March 15, 2020, 09:27:12 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 15, 2020, 03:04:12 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 15, 2020, 02:47:41 PM
I'm just hoping that this leads to a business culture change away from fetishizing attendance above all else. I would happily socially distance myself, even without pay, for a month, but my employer demands that I show up as usual and deal with throngs of people with questionable sanitation practices.

I've been working for tech startups for nearly a decade and have exclusively been remote the entire time.  I've been pretty lucky to continually land remote jobs.  But it's surprising how many tech companies buy into this idea that people only productive in an office and can't possibly be trusted at home.  Since much of Seattle's tech industry is suddenly doing work from home (and probably seeing little drop in productivity), the culture might finally change.  Think of the reduction in emissions and easing of congestion on freeways if people who can work from home are allowed to do so on a permanent basis in the future. 

Though that would be the death knell of WeWork...
It would not surprise me if several places increased productivity with working from home. Before I retired, my days were interrupted with meetings that could have been handled with emails, nearby conversations because some moron thought open offices were better than cubes despite most of us working on individual projects, phone calls from someone who wanted to know if so-and-so was in the office because they hadn't answered their own phone (usually because they were busy in meetings or training and couldn't be at their desk), bosses having a meltdown forcing everyone to switch to their pet project because of their own mishandling of a situation, and all sorts of other time-wastes. I originally worked second shift and occasionally midnights as a new employee, and I was far more productive than I was once I was stuck on days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 15, 2020, 11:33:07 PM
Washington is now banning all gatherings over 50 people, preventing restaurants from serving dine-in customers, and closing all entertainment and recreational facilities (gyms, movie theaters, etc). Most retailers will have reduced occupancy, except grocers and pharmacies.

https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1239376248335265794
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:13:13 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 15, 2020, 11:33:07 PM
Washington is now banning all gatherings over 50 people, preventing restaurants from serving dine-in customers, and closing all entertainment and recreational facilities (gyms, movie theaters, etc). Most retailers will have reduced occupancy, except grocers and pharmacies.

https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1239376248335265794

The gym is the one that has me worried will be next in California.  I already did 8 days in a row of push ups, burpees, and sit ups in Mexico earlier this month which isn't something I considered much fun.  At minimum I do all my running outside and if the weather is bad I have a higher end rowing machine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 16, 2020, 12:29:47 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:13:13 AM
The gym is the one that has me worried will be next in California.  I already did 8 days in a row of push ups, burpees, and sit ups in Mexico earlier this month which isn't something I considered much fun.  At minimum I do all my running outside and if the weather is bad I have a higher end rowing machine.

My building has shut all of our resident centers, including the gym. The weather has been good, so I'm mostly walking/jogging outside, and had been doing push-ups/crunches in my apartment anyways. Won't be lifting for a while now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:41:55 AM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 16, 2020, 12:29:47 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:13:13 AM
The gym is the one that has me worried will be next in California.  I already did 8 days in a row of push ups, burpees, and sit ups in Mexico earlier this month which isn't something I considered much fun.  At minimum I do all my running outside and if the weather is bad I have a higher end rowing machine.

My building has shut all of our resident centers, including the gym. The weather has been good, so I'm mostly walking/jogging outside, and had been doing push-ups/crunches in my apartment anyways. Won't be lifting for a while now.

I have plenty of wet weather and winter gear.  I don't foresee myself stopping working out regardless of what gets implemented, it just might have to be heavily modified on strength training.  The last week I took off from running and lifting was back in 2010 after I got hit by a car.  That was total misery sitting around the house waiting for a Doctor to tell me that a bone they set was going to probably need surgery anyways.  I kind of regret not buying a dip bench and pull-up bar when I had the chance last year on clearance prices. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Chris on March 16, 2020, 08:18:04 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:31 AMThere seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

The consensus could change rapidly once the gravity of the situation becomes clear. Especially at hospitals. Only a small percentage of the population needs to be infected to overwhelm the healthcare system, as ICU beds and ventilators are not vacant on any significant scale.

Italy's healthcare system already became overloaded with a few thousand confirmed cases in an area with a population of 10 million.

Many people are stubborn and don't think it will impact them, until it does and then all the sudden even these people will follow restrictions that would otherwise be unthinkable. You can see in parts of Europe where many people don't care about personal space all the sudden manage to keep 6 feet distance.

This past week in Europe shows how quickly government response and public reaction can change. Europe was pretty much operating normal even with the Italian outbreak ongoing. They thought - like Italy - that such a situation wouldn't present itself. But it did. Now everything is shut down.

This morning in the Netherlands
* traffic volumes down by around 50% despite no complete lockdown being in place (so far it is only recommended to work from home and public gatherings are banned)
* train travel is down by 85%
* our national airline has reduced flights by up to 90%

A week ago there was almost no impact on these fronts. And we have only around 1,100 cases so far.

I would say don't underestimate the impact and how quickly things can change. What is unthinkable today may not be so unthinkable tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 16, 2020, 09:26:45 AM
Quote from: kwellada on March 15, 2020, 12:40:10 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 15, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
Could you please elaborate? Even with the worse scenario I fail to see how that is even remotely possible. A burden on the economy and day to day life sure. A horrible tragedy with many loosing loved ones sure. But the end of the country?

Now please note that my thoughts on this matter are PURELY SPECULATION and I know far more about photography than finance, so take this with the appropriate grains of salt.  Covid-19 alone is not going to cause the end of the country.  However, it might be pulling back the curtain on an economic and financial system that is already stressed and fragile as heck.  The stock market's roller coaster is an example of that.  There's been other stories in the past few months that suggest something unpleasant is ahead for the economy and perhaps this pandemic is just a match that lights a major bonfire.  Things are unfolding at a pace that is hard to process on a day to day basis.  After all, at no other point in modern times have all the major sports leagues shut down, giving ESPN nothing to do. 

With luck and some level headed thinking, I hope we can come out of this with a better awareness of the interconnectedness of our world, more respect for one other (even if our views on political policies differ) and better knowledge about pandemics to avoid a catastrophe if another happens.

Re the parenthesized part... don't count on it.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 16, 2020, 09:39:47 AM
Here is Spain we cannot even take a run outside. So people have started to get creative, like that one who did 10 km (6.2 miles) in a corridor, he had to run through it a thousand times to get there. Others have done subterranean runs through their garages, up to a half marathon I've seen. I myself plan to run through home up to 250 times just to do 5 km (3.1 miles).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL
People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 10:05:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL
People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 16, 2020, 10:06:56 AM
DOW dropped 2200 points. Trading halted... again
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 10:09:32 AM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on March 16, 2020, 09:39:47 AM
Here is Spain we cannot even take a run outside. So people have started to get creative, like that one who did 10 km (6.2 miles) in a corridor, he had to run through it a thousand times to get there. Others have done subterranean runs through their garages, up to a half marathon I've seen. I myself plan to run through home up to 250 times just to do 5 km (3.1 miles).

I suppose that I could run circles in the garage but that would be incredibly boring getting to my normal Monday morning 14 mile run.  Granted I live out on the farm boons, I don't even know how any agency would be able to enforce me running through the farm roads. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 10:21:43 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 10:05:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL
People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?
Flatten the curve™
Remember, unlike flu, unknown (but significant) portion of population requires medical care.
Goal of current quarantine is not to stop it - but let initial flares die out and suppress further fast growth.
Right now, numbers of doctors, supplies, equipment barely match numbers of those in need of treatment. That leads to care rationing, triage etc - in other words, if they think you don't recover for sure - you're left to die while doctors deal with those who has a chance. They say that in Northern Italy those older than 65 (think your parents) wouldn't even get temperature taken - they are written off.

Right now the goal is to make sure those who will get sick, will do so over time and not overwhelm capacity.

As for your running on farm roads - I don't see the problem. I, for one, don't think anyone will have problem with me working in my 1 acre backyard.
Problem is with those going for coffee after  the run.

A fascinating story of ONE person leading to uncontained outbreak in Korea
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 10:05:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL
People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

And - once lockdown is lifted, expect fever checkpoints all over the place, busting recommended quarantine becoming a crime punishable by weeks of arrest (in guarded quarantine unit, of course) and medical students graduating and getting licensed early (with restricted license, maybe). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 16, 2020, 11:13:36 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 10:05:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL
People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

Another not quite perfect road analogy is ramp metering. By quarantining, you slow the volume of sick reaching the limited medical supplies (freeway). Without the meter, everything backs up, no one goes anywhere, and you end up with gridlock. There still is a backup with the meter, but at least you have a decent flow of traffic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 16, 2020, 11:26:36 AM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 16, 2020, 11:13:36 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 10:05:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL
People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

Another not quite perfect road analogy is ramp metering. By quarantining, you slow the volume of sick reaching the limited medical supplies (freeway). Without the meter, everything backs up, no one goes anywhere, and you end up with gridlock. There still is a backup with the meter, but at least you have a decent flow of traffic.
not a good analogy lol... in LA the meter let's you out to a horribly congested freeway. :p
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 11:41:39 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 16, 2020, 11:26:36 AM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 16, 2020, 11:13:36 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 10:05:58 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 16, 2020, 09:08:17 AM
I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL
People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

Another not quite perfect road analogy is ramp metering. By quarantining, you slow the volume of sick reaching the limited medical supplies (freeway). Without the meter, everything backs up, no one goes anywhere, and you end up with gridlock. There still is a backup with the meter, but at least you have a decent flow of traffic.
not a good analogy lol... in LA the meter let's you out to a horribly congested freeway. :p
Which will still be the case with the virus, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 16, 2020, 12:32:15 PM
Interesting video here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-shouldnt-hope-covid-19-is-seasonal-like-the-flu/
And article here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-may-make-millions-of-americans-sick-but-we-only-have-about-100000-ventilators/

"It's not a question of whether you're going to recover or not, it's a question of whether you're going to spread it to someone who doesn't."
I think that captures the current moment quite well, especially for those of us under 60-65 that aren't necessarily at high risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 16, 2020, 12:35:30 PM
Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:37:22 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 16, 2020, 12:35:30 PM
Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

They've been closed out here on the West Coast.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 16, 2020, 12:42:26 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:37:22 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 16, 2020, 12:35:30 PM
Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

They've been closed out here on the West Coast.

Same here in VA and NC. Both governors ordered them to close for 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 16, 2020, 12:47:37 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 16, 2020, 12:35:30 PM
Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

Everything that is not work from home should be closed except the following:
Health Care
Public Safety
Public Utilities
Government Services
Grocery Stores
Gas Stations
Drug Stores
Restaurants (delivery, drive-thru and carryout only)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:48:26 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 16, 2020, 12:42:26 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:37:22 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 16, 2020, 12:35:30 PM
Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

They've been closed out here on the West Coast.

Same here in VA and NC. Both governors ordered them to close for 2 weeks.

Most of them did it on their own.  I think Stanislaus County might still be in session?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 16, 2020, 12:50:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:13:13 AMThe gym is the one that has me worried will be next in California.  I already did 8 days in a row of push ups, burpees, and sit ups in Mexico earlier this month which isn't something I considered much fun.  At minimum I do all my running outside and if the weather is bad I have a higher end rowing machine.

We have just eight confirmed cases in Kansas, of which just one is reasonably local (Butler County), but my gym is closed indefinitely (reviewable daily) as of today.

Our public library is still open, but I think it's an even chance we will close by the end of this week.  At least three others in Kansas have closed (Andover, Manhattan, and Johnson County).

Quote from: webny99 on March 16, 2020, 12:35:30 PMAny thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?

I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

In Kansas, the state BOE is encouraging school districts to close.  My big concern with school closure in general has to do with feeding kids who qualify for free school lunches.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 12:57:32 PM
Speaking of the gym, it was another ghost town this morning.  Mostly just the regulars were present again, most of the casual cardio people are long gone.  I want to say the owner was manning the front desk this morning?  I only met the guy once but it looks like the majority of his staff got sent home aside from the janitors. 

I did run around 6 AM this morning since it's hard to see in the rain in the dark.  The streets were pretty empty given there was no school traffic out and about. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 01:05:06 PM
Something that has changed is my wife has gotten pretty concerned about her Grandma and Dad having access to supplies given they live in a remote town.  We went to get stuff for them yesterday and found that there local market had plenty of stock on-hand.  Much of the produce and meats comes from local farms/ranches in stores that aren't chain based (one in particular comes to mind is Vallarta) .  I kind of have noticed something similar at least locally around the Fresno Area that anything that isn't a giant chain like Walmart and Costco has a very reasonable chance at having stock on-hand.  Even most of the food trucks and stands that I normally see out in the farm lands are still operating as per usual. 

I'm to understand that the exchange rate between the U.S. Dollar and the Peso recently shot up from $17.70 to $23.  We haven't really heard much of anything from family down in Mexico other than closing school was discussed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 16, 2020, 01:09:07 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 16, 2020, 12:50:43 PMOur public library is still open, but I think it's an even chance we will close by the end of this week.  At least three others in Kansas have closed (Andover, Manhattan, and Johnson County).

Posted too soon.  The email has just landed--we are closed from tomorrow, March 17.  Today is going to be a Gadarene rush to stock up on books.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 16, 2020, 03:44:54 PM
(https://virginia.sportswar.com/post_images/general/00/00/00/13/47/37/80/13473780_0.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 03:59:13 PM
The power went out to 62,000 residents in Fresno during the current rain storms.  The conspiracy theory crowd has already hit social media with all sorts of out there ideas on "what is really happening."   Many of them are saying the power going out is the first step in some sort of virus culling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 16, 2020, 04:21:13 PM
My school district just got closed until April 6th  :banghead:  :banghead:  :banghead: I'm already bored out of my mind (as I am on Spring Break) and track season will be cut short for the second year in a row. Nothing was said about online lessons or anything of the sort. My main concern is the possibility of school going deep in to summer as a result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 16, 2020, 04:28:25 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 03:59:13 PM
The conspiracy theory crowd has already hit social media with all sorts of out there ideas on "what is really happening."   Many of them are saying the power going out is the first step in some sort of virus culling.

I've been waiting for them to come out of the woodwork. The doomsday/Revelations/Repent Now crowd seems to be a little late.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 04:33:20 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 16, 2020, 04:28:25 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 03:59:13 PM
The conspiracy theory crowd has already hit social media with all sorts of out there ideas on "what is really happening."   Many of them are saying the power going out is the first step in some sort of virus culling.

I've been waiting for them to come out of the woodwork. The doomsday/Revelations/Repent Now crowd seems to be a little late.

Personally I've been fighting off employees talking about a "Thanos Conspiracy" in my own work force for about a week.  I'm sure those voices will only get louder through the week. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 04:37:45 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 16, 2020, 04:21:13 PM
My school district just got closed until April 6th  :banghead:  :banghead:  :banghead: I'm already bored out of my mind (as I am on Spring Break) and track season will be cut short for the second year in a row. Nothing was said about online lessons or anything of the sort. My main concern is the possibility of school going deep in to summer as a result.
Sites like edx or Coursera give more than descent opportunity for remote education. Not sure 8f you can get formal credit starting at odd time, but definitely may help to relieve boredom
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheStranger on March 16, 2020, 04:42:14 PM
https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/in-defining-moment-san-francisco-to-order-residents-to-stay-home-over-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 04:46:04 PM
Quote from: TheStranger on March 16, 2020, 04:42:14 PM
https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/in-defining-moment-san-francisco-to-order-residents-to-stay-home-over-coronavirus/

Good luck with that, San Fran.

Anyone who thinks that's gonna work is delusional.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 04:51:36 PM
At least it isn't Monterey and San Benito County, I still have some ambitions on getting away from all this at Pinnacles National Park provided the rain clears this weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 16, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
All non-essential travel and workplaces should be closed. I'm in support of mandated social quarantines and taking actions similar to what Italy has already done.

We are totally unprepared to test and treat enough people in the Seattle area to prevent the number of projected deaths. I've got vulnerable people in my social circle and they are all terrified to go out because of how careless many members of the public are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 16, 2020, 06:39:15 PM
One bit of roadgeek trivia - I am finishing a drive from Memphis to Hartford.  There were a remarkable number of Canadian vehicles heading north, presumably snowbirds trying to get home before the border is closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 06:42:57 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 16, 2020, 06:39:15 PM
One bit of roadgeek trivia - I am finishing a drive from Memphis to Hartford.  There were a remarkable number of Canadian vehicles heading north, presumably snowbirds trying to get home before the border is closed.

Wasn't there some Mexican politicians calling to close the border also last week?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 06:47:14 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 16, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
All non-essential travel and workplaces should be closed. I'm in support of mandated social quarantines and taking actions similar to what Italy has already done.

That would be unconstitutional.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ftballfan on March 16, 2020, 06:49:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 04:46:04 PM
Quote from: TheStranger on March 16, 2020, 04:42:14 PM
https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/in-defining-moment-san-francisco-to-order-residents-to-stay-home-over-coronavirus/

Good luck with that, San Fran.

Anyone who thinks that's gonna work is delusional.
I wonder if they'll call in the National Guard to block all lanes of freeways at the outer boundaries of this zone
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 07:08:49 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on March 16, 2020, 06:49:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 04:46:04 PM
Quote from: TheStranger on March 16, 2020, 04:42:14 PM
https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/in-defining-moment-san-francisco-to-order-residents-to-stay-home-over-coronavirus/

Good luck with that, San Fran.

Anyone who thinks that's gonna work is delusional.
I wonder if they'll call in the National Guard to block all lanes of freeways at the outer boundaries of this zone

Reading the details it isn't quite that level of shut down as essential services (grocery stores and doctors namely) are still open.  More or less it could in theory be something of a police state reading the restrictions, or at least you could be asked where you are going and why it looks.  So far no really stories of civil unrest but I can't imagine that isn't going to stay that way. 

Then again there hasn't been much in the way of notable civil unrest that I've seen State Side in general.  I can't help but think had this been 20-30 years ago there would be riots and looting all over the place.  Really beyond where we're at now I don't even think that I could formulate a guess regarding what happens next and what the long term effects will be. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 07:10:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 07:08:49 PM
Then again there hasn't been much in the way of notable civil unrest that I've seen State Side in general.  I can't help but think had this been 20-30 years ago there would be riots and looting all over the place.

Restrictions like this would never, ever be tolerated in the '70s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 16, 2020, 08:37:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 06:47:14 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 16, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
All non-essential travel and workplaces should be closed. I'm in support of mandated social quarantines and taking actions similar to what Italy has already done.

That would be unconstitutional.

It may be worth seeing what restrictions were enacted in the 1918 flu epidemic to see what governments may be able to do.  I'm not sure off the top of my head, but I would suspect that in a national emergency situation, they have broader powers to protect the public...but of course, I'm not a lawyer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 08:50:33 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 16, 2020, 08:37:49 PM
It may be worth seeing what restrictions were enacted in the 1918 flu epidemic to see what governments may be able to do.  I'm not sure off the top of my head, but I would suspect that in a national emergency situation, they have broader powers to protect the public...but of course, I'm not a lawyer.

Their constitutional powers would have a more limited time and scope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: oscar on March 16, 2020, 08:52:27 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 16, 2020, 06:39:15 PM
One bit of roadgeek trivia - I am finishing a drive from Memphis to Hartford.  There were a remarkable number of Canadian vehicles heading north, presumably snowbirds trying to get home before the border is closed.

Then again, isn't this is about when the snowbirds start going home anyway? So I've experienced in both south Florida and southern California.

Speaking of Canada, I got an e-mail from the hotel in Iqaluit, Nunavut where I stayed in summer 2014, with coronavirus advice for all the people on its e-mail list. Canada's far northern Nunavut Territory has no road link to the rest of Canada, except sometimes an ice road connecting Yellowknife NT to some mines to the north. If Nunavut isn't safe, is there any place safe from the coronavirus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 09:03:55 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 16, 2020, 08:37:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 06:47:14 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 16, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
All non-essential travel and workplaces should be closed. I'm in support of mandated social quarantines and taking actions similar to what Italy has already done.

That would be unconstitutional.

It may be worth seeing what restrictions were enacted in the 1918 flu epidemic to see what governments may be able to do.  I'm not sure off the top of my head, but I would suspect that in a national emergency situation, they have broader powers to protect the public...but of course, I'm not a lawyer.

If I recall my history correctly the big thing in 1918-1920 was making sure people wore masks in public.  I seem to remember the masks were basically just akin to cloth rags and not much more.  I think in some states you could be arrested if you were caught in public without one. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wxfree on March 16, 2020, 09:19:53 PM
After Katrina, I remember Andrew Napolitano being asked about forcing people to leave their own homes.  A "mandatory" evacuation order really isn't that, it's just a warning that if you decide to stay, you may be on your own and emergency services may not be able to help.  The judge was asked about forcing people who were staying in their homes after the storm to leave.  He said it would require showing that the person presented a danger to others by the act of remaining in his own home.  That's obviously a high bar to clear, but it's a much lower bar to find that you place others in danger by being in a public place around other people, who may be infected or get infected by you.

We don't have the police capacity to enforce a real lockdown.  I like how one of the officials answered a question about the penalty for violating a restriction, saying that the penalty is that you may be killing your grandparents, since older people are especially susceptible.  To me, this is a test of patriotism, whether you're willing to act for the good of the community even if it's inconvenient to yourself, more than a test of constitutional rights.  Rights are responsibilities, and opportunities to make the right choice, not a blanket assumption of impunity for foolishness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 09:39:57 PM
It will be kind of interesting to see if this kind of thing becomes the norm anytime pandemic (or even an epidemic) talk comes up in the future.  It will be interesting to see what the consensus opinion publicly on quarantines will be, only time will tell.  Right now it seems divided, but not quite as divided as I would have thought. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 16, 2020, 09:45:35 PM
It'll depend on whether people will feel free to obtain food or not.

I have friends in China and even their quarantines allowed for food to be ordered in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 09:53:49 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 16, 2020, 09:45:35 PM
It'll depend on whether people will feel free to obtain food or not.

I have friends in China and even their quarantines allowed for food to be ordered in.

That's the part has me intrigued as I described upthread.  Having explain potentially to a police officer you left the house to get food, go to the doctor, or even get a breather probably isn't going to make some people very happy...in a potentially really bad way.  What happens then will be interesting, do people get arrested?...do they get vilified by people in their own community? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 16, 2020, 10:09:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 16, 2020, 09:53:49 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 16, 2020, 09:45:35 PM
It'll depend on whether people will feel free to obtain food or not.

I have friends in China and even their quarantines allowed for food to be ordered in.

That's the part has me intrigued as I described upthread.  Having explain potentially to a police officer you left the house to get food, go to the doctor, or even get a breather probably isn't going to make some people very happy...in a potentially really bad way.  What happens then will be interesting, do people get arrested?...do they get vilified by people in their own community?
Whatever it worth.. From europe - someone said people walking their dogs attract little attention.
I would imagine people in cars are taken easier as they do not really interact with others.  Drive around without getting out of a car should be as good as sitting indoors. A lot of destinations are closed anyways. "unauthorized" destinations may get attention.
It may be people walking without a clear reason who would attract attention...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 16, 2020, 11:37:57 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 16, 2020, 03:44:54 PM
(https://virginia.sportswar.com/post_images/general/00/00/00/13/47/37/80/13473780_0.jpg)

:-D :-D That is insanely perfect, on so many levels. Just sent it to my mom.

Side-note: kind of looks like George Lucas? EDIT: no, Peter Dinklage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Duke87 on March 16, 2020, 11:38:30 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 15, 2020, 08:22:45 AM
Note also that it's not just the "you could spread the virus to a high risk person" risk (since it's tempting to rebut with "but I don't come into contact with any such people" or "those people should go into isolation"); it's "you could spread the virus to others who come into contact with high risk people".

The its-all-about-my-comfort-and-convenience attitude is a major reason why entire countries are going into lockdown.  It's a step being taken because too many people cannot be trusted to do their part in slowing the spread of the virus to a manageable rate.

I wouldn't tear into people's attitudes too much over this. Fact of the matter is when you talk about individual people voluntarily doing their part, and making only suggestions, this leads to a lot of confusion and doubt as to what is or isn't really necessary - and a lot of people are quite understandably going to be like "well no one said I can't do this, so..." or "eh other people are staying home, so I don't have to".

If you want quick and effective results you need to give people direct and specific instructions, not suggestions or calls for voluntary action. This is true for managing large groups of people even under non-crisis circumstances.

Quote from: J N Winkler on March 16, 2020, 12:50:43 PM
My big concern with school closure in general has to do with feeding kids who qualify for free school lunches.

Schools around here have been still providing meals for those kids, available for pickup at the school around lunchtime or, in some cases, delivered to the kids' homes using the school buses that are otherwise not currently in use.

NYC specifically is also going to be using some schools to provide free daycare services for the children of healthcare workers and first responders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 16, 2020, 11:41:35 PM
In Tampa Bay restaurants can't have more than 10 customers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 17, 2020, 12:48:35 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 06:47:14 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 16, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
All non-essential travel and workplaces should be closed. I'm in support of mandated social quarantines and taking actions similar to what Italy has already done.

That would be unconstitutional.

...for the feds perhaps (unless interpreted as an extension of the Commerce Clause), but the states have such power from pre-Constitution legal tradition, protected by the Tenth Amendment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 01:18:58 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 17, 2020, 12:48:35 AM
...for the feds perhaps (unless interpreted as an extension of the Commerce Clause), but the states have such power from pre-Constitution legal tradition, protected by the Tenth Amendment.

The Bill of Rights is binding on the states under the doctrine of incorporation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Brandon on March 17, 2020, 05:57:15 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 17, 2020, 12:48:35 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 06:47:14 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 16, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
All non-essential travel and workplaces should be closed. I'm in support of mandated social quarantines and taking actions similar to what Italy has already done.

That would be unconstitutional.

...for the feds perhaps (unless interpreted as an extension of the Commerce Clause), but the states have such power from pre-Constitution legal tradition, protected by the Tenth Amendment.

Not quite.  Anything and everything in the Constitution also applies to the states (14th Amendment) unless it pertains only to the feds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 17, 2020, 08:27:34 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 17, 2020, 05:57:15 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 17, 2020, 12:48:35 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 16, 2020, 06:47:14 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 16, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
All non-essential travel and workplaces should be closed. I'm in support of mandated social quarantines and taking actions similar to what Italy has already done.

That would be unconstitutional.

...for the feds perhaps (unless interpreted as an extension of the Commerce Clause), but the states have such power from pre-Constitution legal tradition, protected by the Tenth Amendment.

Not quite.  Anything and everything in the Constitution also applies to the states (14th Amendment) unless it pertains only to the feds.

The equal protection clause makes prohibitions of certain federal behaviors as regards the citizens binding on the states.   However, the Constitution is silent on this subject, except in regards to interstate matters (where Congress has authority under the premise of interstate trade...a power that might exceed what the framers intended, but which the Supreme Court has interpreted in a sufficiently broad manner as to make the argument moot for practical purposes), or as a border control measure (one which the Supreme Court has acknowledged can impose limited/necessary constraints as "an ancient right of nations").

The power of quarantine is a police power, another "ancient power" deemed inherent to the operation of government.  The applicable portion of the Constitution is that portion of the Tenth Amendment which preserves state powers not ceded to the federal government.   I'm not aware of a Constitutional challenge to local quarantines having made it to the SCOTUS (such suits historically have been refused by appellate courts, or the matter became moot by the time of appeal), the question of state mandatory vaccination laws has been heard by the SCOTUS.  See, e.g., Jacobson v Massachusetts:
QuoteThe authority of the state to enact this statute is to be [197 U.S. 11, 25]   referred to what is commonly called the police power,-a power which the state did not surrender when becoming a member of the Union under the Constitution. Although this court has refrained frained from any attempt to define the limits of that power, yet it has distinctly recognized the authority of a state to enact quarantine laws and 'health laws of every description;' indeed, all laws that relate to matters completely within its territory and which do not by their necessary operation affect the people of other states. According to settled principles, the police power of a state must be held to embrace, at least, such reasonable regulations established directly by legislative enactment as will protect the public health and the public safety.

Where the Constitution does impose constraints, applicable to states via the Fourteenth Amendment, is that quarantine orders must such that they are the least restrictive means to protect public health given the circumstances, and the right to due process as regards treatment under such orders must be preserved.   An additional constraint, that individuals being confined must be evaluated per the individual's circumstances, may or may not apply here, depending on the specific wording of orders issued, or what exceptions are made available - e.g. an exception allowing asymptomatic people to be out to work in essential functions or for necessary reasons.

I should note here that I am not a lawyer.  I'm basing the above on questions raised and answered when I participated in a tabletop exercise on pandemic in my prior assignment at work - supporting a business unit that writes liability insurance for state and local governments.  There will probably be a few lawsuits coming out of any government orders on the subject, but barring excessive use of power, I'd only be concerned about defense costs, not the potential for damages to be awarded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 17, 2020, 10:32:14 AM
Meanwhile, I'm debating a day trip from Tacoma to Mt. St. Helens to take some late spring photos (especially since we finally have decent weather this week).  Assuming I pack my own sandwiches, I could easily go there and back without interacting with another human.  Just a little daytrip would do much to alleviate the boredom of the Washington quarantine (and for the record, I don't have symptoms nor have I really interacted with people much the past two weeks). 

It's an incredibly surreal time to really have to ponder something that usually takes a split second to decide to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 17, 2020, 11:42:27 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 16, 2020, 06:39:15 PM
One bit of roadgeek trivia - I am finishing a drive from Memphis to Hartford.  There were a remarkable number of Canadian vehicles heading north, presumably snowbirds trying to get home before the border is closed.

You know, I've been wondering about that. Amidst the roads emptying out around the country, I-95 in Georgia and South Carolina seemed to be one of the biggest traffic hot spots in the country this past weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 17, 2020, 11:48:06 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 17, 2020, 11:42:27 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 16, 2020, 06:39:15 PM
One bit of roadgeek trivia - I am finishing a drive from Memphis to Hartford.  There were a remarkable number of Canadian vehicles heading north, presumably snowbirds trying to get home before the border is closed.

You know, I've been wondering about that. Amidst the roads emptying out around the country, I-95 in Georgia and South Carolina seemed to be one of the biggest traffic hot spots in the country this past weekend.

A lot of snowbirds trying to get home before any potential long term mandatory quarantine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 17, 2020, 12:32:46 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 17, 2020, 11:48:06 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 17, 2020, 11:42:27 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 16, 2020, 06:39:15 PM
One bit of roadgeek trivia - I am finishing a drive from Memphis to Hartford.  There were a remarkable number of Canadian vehicles heading north, presumably snowbirds trying to get home before the border is closed.

You know, I've been wondering about that. Amidst the roads emptying out around the country, I-95 in Georgia and South Carolina seemed to be one of the biggest traffic hot spots in the country this past weekend.

A lot of snowbirds trying to get home before any potential long term mandatory quarantine.

In addition to all the Canadians, I saw a lot of cars that looked like college students heading home, and other vehicles packed (or having car-top carriers, or towing trailers) that indicated people heading home after an extended stay "away". 

Long-distance traffic level seemed in line with what I'm used to seeing -- the roads weren't deserted, but they were pretty free-flowing.   Rest areas seemed extremely busy considering the traffic volume, while restaurant parking lots were fairly empty....probably not surprising , under the circumstances.

But, I'm home now, and am hunkered down until I'm told that I can go into the office (in Montréal) again, or until my father's retirement community calls to let me know that visitors are allowed back on their grounds again / that it's OK for me to come down and move stuff from his old apartment either out or into his new room.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 12:41:41 PM
Closed the libraries for a month in Polk County, FL.  The cause Publix and Walmart closed for the evenings now everyone must pile into the stores in the afternoon.

Question.  If the purpose of limiting hours of the store is to limit the amount of time of contact between folks, then is not creating more people in a short amount of time also creating another incubation period?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
Needless to say, I have some strong opinions on this. I actually find myself in agreement with Tim on some of these issues. The Ben Franklin quote about safety and liberty comes readily to mind. It's amazing the freedoms people are so willingly eager to surrender just so the government can keep them protected.

We have an interesting situation in Kentucky. A family is basically being held prisoner in its own home because the authorities allege a resident tested positive for the virus. The problem is, he didn't. The man had been hospitalized for COPD and had been moved from ICU into a regular room with another patient before they self-discharged and went home. There's no chance he would have been moved out of isolation into a room with someone else if there were any suspicions he had the virus. And his wife and his attorney say there's nothing in his medical records that indicate he was tested. The authorities are being very closed-mouthed about it and the media isn't pressing the issue.

https://www.kystandard.com/content/wife-reported-nelson-covid-19-case-says-recent-exposure-community-limited

I think we should be able to use some common sense. If my dad was still alive, and I was still looking in on him every day, I would certainly alter my behaviors. I would not even go see him if I had a cold because he was so susceptible to them and if he took a cold,  he'd be down for a week. It's odd. My dad was the toughest man I ever knew. He lost a leg in Korea but could outwork me until he was well into his 60s, but the common cold took him down. People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: sprjus4 on March 17, 2020, 12:43:17 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 12:41:41 PM
Closed the libraries for a month in Polk County, FL.  The cause Publix and Walmart closed for the evenings now everyone must pile into the stores in the afternoon.

Question.  If the purpose of limiting hours of the store is to limit the amount of time of contact between folks, then is not creating more people in a short amount of time also creating another incubation period?
The reduced hours is across all of their stores. It's to give time for cleaning and restocking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 12:49:38 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 17, 2020, 12:43:17 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 12:41:41 PM
Closed the libraries for a month in Polk County, FL.  The cause Publix and Walmart closed for the evenings now everyone must pile into the stores in the afternoon.

Question.  If the purpose of limiting hours of the store is to limit the amount of time of contact between folks, then is not creating more people in a short amount of time also creating another incubation period?
The reduced hours is across all of their stores. It's to give time for cleaning and restocking.

And in many cases, it's bringing hours to similar what we were used to in the late 80s & 90s (before many larger stores existed/went 24/7). Except for grocery stores, foot traffic has declined, so the higher density really isn't a concern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 12:50:30 PM
Ran 14 miles this morning and took a practice route that took me mostly outside the City Limits of Fresno.  I didn't encounter another person over the course of little over an hour and half, seems like I hit on something halfway decent, the only problem is a need some daylight to see.  The gym was still open but I had to do push ups in the garage since I got behind on time.  No wonder if what happened in the Bay Area is gaining momentum to be implemented here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 12:56:41 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 12:49:38 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 17, 2020, 12:43:17 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 12:41:41 PM
Closed the libraries for a month in Polk County, FL.  The cause Publix and Walmart closed for the evenings now everyone must pile into the stores in the afternoon.

Question.  If the purpose of limiting hours of the store is to limit the amount of time of contact between folks, then is not creating more people in a short amount of time also creating another incubation period?
The reduced hours is across all of their stores. It’s to give time for cleaning and restocking.

And in many cases, it's bringing hours to similar what we were used to in the late 80s & 90s (before many larger stores existed/went 24/7). Except for grocery stores, foot traffic has declined, so the higher density really isn't a concern.
Well that might be a good idea to limit hours as we as a nation are too spoiled.  I hate to agree with Obama, but he was right as far as that is concerned.  I personally think that it may be better to limit store shopping, but the hype needs to go.

I would not mind seeing Sunday Blue Laws back as being a toll collector these days you can't tell the different days anymore.  Plus closing early keeps traffic down at night as sometimes at 2 AM many headlights are on many different roadways.  A sight I never saw at that hour of the morning.   Traffic signals used to be on flash mode as the traffic did not warrant an operational signal then.

I know that good will someday come of this, but whether a week or a month or a year, is remained to be seen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 17, 2020, 12:57:09 PM
An executive order is being issued in NC (my home state) today to close all restaurants and bars for dine-in customers. Takeouts and deliveries will still be allowed.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-close-restaurants-and-bars-dine-customers-allow-takeout-and-delivery-operations (https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-close-restaurants-and-bars-dine-customers-allow-takeout-and-delivery-operations)

Meanwhile here in VA, there are 67 confirmed cases and 2 have died. No confirmed cases in my neck of the woods so far (*knock on wood*).

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/67-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-va-gov-northam-closes-dmv-offices (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/67-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-va-gov-northam-closes-dmv-offices)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 01:01:33 PM
Yup McDonalds up the street from where I live only is doing take out or drive up.

I am more worried about the people's state of mind over the actual virus as panic creates fear which leads to people doing more things.

Then the political aspect of this being an election year as many die hard registered party members will seize the moment to see who's leaders can come up with a better solution to handle the problem and escalate more anger on top of what has been started over the past two decades.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: sprjus4 on March 17, 2020, 01:45:28 PM
The Outer Banks is now closing its doors, even trips to Currituck County that require travel thru the county. If only that Mid-Currituck Bridge was built...  :hmmm:

Most of Outer Banks shuts down to visitors (https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health/vp-nw-outer-banks-closed-20200317-pi6x5ay56zauhkzuaf2mo56zru-story.html)
QuoteThe Outer Banks is closing access to visitors beginning at 2 p.m. Tuesday, according to a news release from Dare County officials.

It's in response to the Center for Disease Control's guidelines to avoid discretionary travel.

"While there are currently no individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Dare County, officials weighed the potential benefits for community health along with the tremendous impacts these restrictions have on our community,"  a news release said. "These restrictions may be inconvenient, disappointing and have financial impacts, however, they were made in the interest of public safety to limit the spread of COVID-19."

The novel coronavirus sweeping through the world causes COVID-19, a respiratory illness.

Checkpoints will be established at entry points to Dare County and no visitors will be allowed access, according to the release. Permanent residents, non-resident property owners and non-resident employees of Dare County businesses are being asked to review entry guidelines online.

Re-entry permits from previous years will not be accepted, the release said.

Visitors will not be allowed to travel through Dare to access Currituck County, where Corrolla is, Hyde County, where Ocracoke Island is, or Tyrell County. People who reside, own property or work in Corolla or Ocracoke will be allowed entry.

A dedicated help line has been set up to answer questions from the public: 252-475-5008.

In North Carolina, at least 39 people have tested positive for the coronavirus. In Virginia, 67 people have tested positive.

The Outer Banks hospital has implemented visitor restrictions. Only one immediate family member over the age of 16 who does not exhibit any symptoms of illness may visit a patient in the hospital. The hospital will also screen patients and visitors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 17, 2020, 03:24:17 PM
This one will make some of your heads explode: Maryland has gone to all-cashless tolling at all facilities until further notice.

https://www.stardem.com/news/local_news/mdta-announces-move-to-all-electronic-tolling/article_075040c5-cef2-5d98-ab4b-79d3eaa9d0f0.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 03:52:55 PM
So did PA on the turnpike system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 04:07:50 PM
Illinois did as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 17, 2020, 04:09:48 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 04:07:50 PMIllinois did as well.

Yes, even though it has coin baskets.  The buzz phrase in the email was something like "reduce person-to-person and person-to-surface contact."
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
I think we should be able to use some common sense. [...] People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.

The problem is that the American public is full of selfish assholes who will do whatever they want without thinking about the consequences for anyone else. You would know better than to visit your elderly father and risk giving him the virus. There are people who would be like "This whole coronavirus thing is overblown, there's no way I could have it, I'm gonna go see Dad!" and end up murdering him with their own stupidity.

So we have to overcompensate because some folks are too fixated on what they want to do to the exclusion of all else, including is this safe for the people around me. They should use their good judgement, but they don't even get as far as using any judgement at all. Me want, me do. That's as far as their line of thinking goes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
I think we should be able to use some common sense. [...] People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.

The problem is that the American public is full of selfish assholes who will do whatever they want without thinking about the consequences for anyone else. You would know better than to visit your elderly father and risk giving him the virus. There are people who would be like "This whole coronavirus thing is overblown, there's no way I could have it, I'm gonna go see Dad!" and end up murdering him with their own stupidity.

Hit the nail right on the head. Comment sections all over the internet are full of these specimens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:26:30 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
I think we should be able to use some common sense. [...] People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.

The problem is that the American public is full of selfish assholes who will do whatever they want without thinking about the consequences for anyone else. You would know better than to visit your elderly father and risk giving him the virus. There are people who would be like "This whole coronavirus thing is overblown, there's no way I could have it, I'm gonna go see Dad!" and end up murdering him with their own stupidity.

Hit the nail right on the head. Comment sections all over the internet are full of these specimens.

Murder is a tad strong sentiment. That's the extremism I'm starting to see out of the general populace and that has real potential to be an incredibly dangerous mindset.  . 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 17, 2020, 05:28:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:26:30 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
I think we should be able to use some common sense. [...] People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.

The problem is that the American public is full of selfish assholes who will do whatever they want without thinking about the consequences for anyone else. You would know better than to visit your elderly father and risk giving him the virus. There are people who would be like "This whole coronavirus thing is overblown, there's no way I could have it, I'm gonna go see Dad!" and end up murdering him with their own stupidity.

Hit the nail right on the head. Comment sections all over the internet are full of these specimens.

Murder is a tad strong sentiment. That's the extremism I'm starting to see out of the general populace and that has real potential to be an incredibly dangerous mindset.  .
That's horrible

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 17, 2020, 05:29:39 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 17, 2020, 05:28:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:26:30 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
I think we should be able to use some common sense. [...] People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.

The problem is that the American public is full of selfish assholes who will do whatever they want without thinking about the consequences for anyone else. You would know better than to visit your elderly father and risk giving him the virus. There are people who would be like "This whole coronavirus thing is overblown, there's no way I could have it, I'm gonna go see Dad!" and end up murdering him with their own stupidity.

Hit the nail right on the head. Comment sections all over the internet are full of these specimens.

Murder is a tad strong sentiment. That's the extremism I'm starting to see out of the general populace and that has real potential to be an incredibly dangerous mindset.  .
That's horrible

LGL322DL
What, the "
murder" or the fact that many consider it murder?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:32:05 PM
What's extreme about it? You're told by someone "Hey, if you do this to someone else, they could die," you do it anyway, someone dies. How can you possibly say you didn't kill that person?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 17, 2020, 05:38:50 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 17, 2020, 05:29:39 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 17, 2020, 05:28:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:26:30 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
I think we should be able to use some common sense. [...] People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.

The problem is that the American public is full of selfish assholes who will do whatever they want without thinking about the consequences for anyone else. You would know better than to visit your elderly father and risk giving him the virus. There are people who would be like "This whole coronavirus thing is overblown, there's no way I could have it, I'm gonna go see Dad!" and end up murdering him with their own stupidity.

Hit the nail right on the head. Comment sections all over the internet are full of these specimens.

Murder is a tad strong sentiment. That's the extremism I'm starting to see out of the general populace and that has real potential to be an incredibly dangerous mindset.  .
That's horrible

LGL322DL
What, the "
murder" or the fact that many consider it murder?
murder is a wrong term here. Murder is committed with "malice aforethought."  Manslaughter is the proper word to use.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:40:33 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:32:05 PM
What's extreme about it? You're told by someone "Hey, if you do this to someone else, they could die," you do it anyway, someone dies. How can you possibly say you didn't kill that person?

Where is the premeditation or malice in that?  Some of us (like me) had to bring food and supplies to elderly family members because they can't care for themselves.  In those cases are there serious people on here that willing to call others "murderers?"   It sure sounds like it by some of the comments some of you are making. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 17, 2020, 05:59:47 PM
We are never getting back to normal if this keeps up

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 17, 2020, 06:00:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:40:33 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:32:05 PM
What's extreme about it? You're told by someone "Hey, if you do this to someone else, they could die," you do it anyway, someone dies. How can you possibly say you didn't kill that person?

Where is the premeditation or malice in that?  Some of us (like me) had to bring food and supplies to elderly family members because they can't care for themselves.  In those cases are there serious people on here that willing to call others "murderers?"   It sure sounds like it by some of the comments some of you are making.

Honestly speaking, leaving bags on doorsteps, waving through the window and leaving is the safer option in the current situation
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 17, 2020, 06:01:08 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 17, 2020, 04:09:48 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 04:07:50 PMIllinois did as well.

Yes, even though it has coin baskets.  The buzz phrase in the email was something like "reduce person-to-person and person-to-surface contact."

One of my friends is a toll taker for the Maine Turnpike. From what I heard from him, he says he is "confident that the Maine Turnpike will continue to collect cash unless a country shutdown is mandated". Not sure how either Maine or New Hampshire will handle their cash collection in the near future...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 17, 2020, 06:01:56 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 17, 2020, 05:59:47 PM
We are never getting back to normal if this keeps up

LGL322DL
Best case scenario, things are more or less to normal by fall (health-wise), worst case - 2022.
Economy... anyone's guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 06:02:52 PM
I'd like to see junk mail stopped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 06:10:00 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 17, 2020, 06:00:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:40:33 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:32:05 PM
What's extreme about it? You're told by someone "Hey, if you do this to someone else, they could die," you do it anyway, someone dies. How can you possibly say you didn't kill that person?

Where is the premeditation or malice in that?  Some of us (like me) had to bring food and supplies to elderly family members because they can't care for themselves.  In those cases are there serious people on here that willing to call others "murderers?"   It sure sounds like it by some of the comments some of you are making.

Honestly speaking, leaving bags on doorsteps, waving through the window and leaving is the safer option in the current situation

In my case she can barely walk, total avoidance isn't something that was on the table.  I suspect that there is a countless number of like stories out there.  I can't and I won't just abandoned family members who can't care for themselves in areas that are far removed from essential services.  Not everyone lives in some mass urban area where they can get help within minutes of making a phone call.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 17, 2020, 06:11:03 PM
Quote
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:40:33 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:32:05 PM
What's extreme about it? You're told by someone "Hey, if you do this to someone else, they could die," you do it anyway, someone dies. How can you possibly say you didn't kill that person?

Where is the premeditation or malice in that?  Some of us (like me) had to bring food and supplies to elderly family members because they can't care for themselves.  In those cases are there serious people on here that willing to call others "murderers?"   It sure sounds like it by some of the comments some of you are making.
Well, I have to say, it must be hard for police departments all over the nation (and the world, for that matter) to keep their tabs on every single case of that happening. Duh. They're WAY too occupied with making sure that everyone doesn't go out to begin with to even bother dealing with issues of murder and so on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: roadman65 on March 17, 2020, 06:14:57 PM
Right now we must remain calm as panic creates skeptism and conspiricies.  Plus create anger and rage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 06:15:37 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 06:02:52 PM
I'd like to see junk mail stopped.

I'd like to see it stopped too, but not for anything having to do with the coronavirus: it's a huge waste of resources, and annoying to have to throw away/recycle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 06:20:11 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 06:15:37 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 06:02:52 PM
I'd like to see junk mail stopped.

I'd like to see it stopped too, but not for anything having to do with the coronavirus: it's a huge waste of resources, and annoying to have to throw away/recycle.

It's also a fire hazard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
On a side I am keeping the two appointments I have presently for tomorrow and the one Friday given I'm not in an area declared under emergency.  Two of the three are critical needs things that really should be something I'm putting off.  My Wife had to get some emergency dental work done yesterday since they closed their office for two weeks as of today.  I ended up getting confirmation notices that everything is still a go, for the moment at least. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 17, 2020, 06:28:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
On a side I am keeping the two appointments I have presently for tomorrow and the one Friday given I'm not in an area declared under emergency.  Two of the three are critical needs things that really should be something I'm putting off.  My Wife had to get some emergency dental work done yesterday since they closed their office for two weeks as of today.  I ended up getting confirmation notices that everything is still a go, for the moment at least.
It really suck to be stuck in the middle of things.
I have a friend undergoing chemo... Which is a harsh thing even in better times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 06:37:28 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 17, 2020, 06:28:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
On a side I am keeping the two appointments I have presently for tomorrow and the one Friday given I'm not in an area declared under emergency.  Two of the three are critical needs things that really should be something I'm putting off.  My Wife had to get some emergency dental work done yesterday since they closed their office for two weeks as of today.  I ended up getting confirmation notices that everything is still a go, for the moment at least.
It really suck to be stuck in the middle of things.
I have a friend undergoing chemo... Which is a harsh thing even in better times.

Indeed, fortunately nothing quite to that extent is going on family wise right now.  I shudder to think what would have had happen to my Mom when she was going through cancer treatment now as opposed to 2014-2015.  Back then I checked on her from Orlando every couple days which was a 90 minute drive in good traffic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 17, 2020, 07:07:19 PM
How many pages will we get for this topic by the time it all peaks? We're at 30 now; I'm guessing 150.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 17, 2020, 07:09:17 PM
Washington has now passed 1,000 confirmed positive cases and 52 dead out of 14,000 tested.

https://twitter.com/ChrisDaniels5/status/1240044488627814402

Traffic is light, many busy areas are quiet going by the traffic cameras, and transit ridership has cratered (down 42% for Metro and 25% for Sound Transit).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 17, 2020, 07:12:18 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 17, 2020, 07:07:19 PM
How many pages will we get for this topic by the time it all peaks? We're at 30 now; I'm guessing 150.
Depends on whether second wave would get its own thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Duke87 on March 17, 2020, 08:00:11 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 17, 2020, 03:24:17 PM
This one will make some of your heads explode: Maryland has gone to all-cashless tolling at all facilities until further notice.

I find it amazing how many agencies which were previously supposedly not ready to go cashless, now suddenly seem to be able to basically flip a switch and make it happen.

Then there's the Harris County Toll Road Authority (Houston, TX), which while most of its roads are now cashless, requires people to have a transponder/account to use any of those cashless roads - they won't do billing by plate, if you use of of these roads without an account, they will mail you a violation notice. They've long insisted that they legally can't let people just use the roads and mail them a bill after the fact because their charter prohibits them from extending lines of credit to customers (which apparently not billing them until after they've used the road is considered to count as).
Well, they've suspended cash toll collection at all locations where they still had it, and guess what they're now doing instead?


Sometimes there really is nothing quite like an emergency to get the bullshit cut through and make sensible things which should not be as difficult to accomplish as they normally are happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 17, 2020, 08:35:31 PM
What is and isn't closed in Washington per the Governor's order (took effect today statewide):

https://twitter.com/WADeptHealth/status/1239979010496630785
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 08:41:28 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 17, 2020, 08:35:31 PM
What is and isn't closed in Washington per the Governor's order (took effect today statewide):

https://twitter.com/WADeptHealth/status/1239979010496630785

Those are Allowed Clouds!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 08:58:58 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 08:41:28 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 17, 2020, 08:35:31 PM
What is and isn't closed in Washington per the Governor's order (took effect today statewide):

https://twitter.com/WADeptHealth/status/1239979010496630785

Those are Allowed Clouds!

Sweet, hiking and camping are still on.  That leaves that whole low budget weekend thing open as possibility. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 17, 2020, 09:02:34 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200318/f61337b514db82081e69525b5c616b46.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: noelbotevera on March 17, 2020, 09:16:13 PM
I think I'm the first victim of the virus in our county -- that, or the flu. I've had a fever the entire day, along with fatigue and a sore throat. Haven't had a chance to visit the hospital yet -- don't see the point, now that I'm okay (more or less) and if I do; well I'm fifteen, my immune system still works fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: JoePCool14 on March 17, 2020, 09:19:35 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 17, 2020, 09:16:13 PM
I think I'm the first victim of the virus in our county -- that, or the flu. I've had a fever the entire day, along with fatigue and a sore throat. Haven't had a chance to visit the hospital yet -- don't see the point, now that I'm okay (more or less) and if I do; well I'm fifteen, my immune system still works fine.

Definitely should self-quarantine for a while if you can. Hope you don't have it though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 09:20:23 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 17, 2020, 09:16:13 PM
I think I'm the first victim of the virus in our county -- that, or the flu. I've had a fever the entire day, along with fatigue and a sore throat. Haven't had a chance to visit the hospital yet -- don't see the point, now that I'm okay (more or less) and if I do; well I'm fifteen, my immune system still works fine.

I'm wondering if most of the flu cases this past winter were actually coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 09:24:55 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 09:20:23 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 17, 2020, 09:16:13 PM
I think I'm the first victim of the virus in our county -- that, or the flu. I've had a fever the entire day, along with fatigue and a sore throat. Haven't had a chance to visit the hospital yet -- don't see the point, now that I'm okay (more or less) and if I do; well I'm fifteen, my immune system still works fine.

I'm wondering if most of the flu cases this past winter were actually coronavirus.

I've had my suspicions myself.  I had a really weird flu which was way more in line symptoms wise with what is being published on Coronavirus than a typical flu.  The thing that caught me off guard was the difficultly I had breathing for a couple days and the dry cough that lasted for about 10 days.  The fever was really bad for about 48 hours and missed out on Christmas because I stayed home.  I did go to the Urgent Care about a week in just to be sure I didn't have something weird, they said was probably the flu and not to worry unless it got worse.  I haven't had breathing issues like that since I was in Grade School and I definitely work around people who visit China occasionally. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 09:35:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 09:24:55 PM
I've had my suspicions myself.  I had a really weird flu which was way more in line symptoms wise with what is being published on Coronavirus than a typical flu.  The thing that caught me off guard was the difficultly I had breathing for a couple days and the dry cough that lasted for about 10 days.  The fever was really bad for about 48 hours and missed out on Christmas because I stayed home.  I did go to the Urgent Care about a week in just to be sure I didn't have something weird, they said was probably the flu and not to worry unless it got worse.  I haven't had breathing issues like that since I was in Grade School and I definitely work around people who visit China occasionally.

I haven't had the flu in years, but something strange happened recently. I have a family member who was very ill the entire second half of February. I saw them several times, and they kept bragging that it was "only" a cold. They absolutely refused to see a doctor. I saw them on February 29, and on March 8, I was so tired I couldn't do anything. I get like that anyway, because of other long-term health problems, but that was one of the worst days I can ever remember. I actually thought I was going to die. Extreme fatigue is one of the symptoms of coronavirus. Incubation period can indeed be as high as 8 days. But I didn't have any other symptoms. I always feel very run-down though.

I had whooping cough in 2017-18 that sounded EXACTLY like coronavirus though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: oscar on March 17, 2020, 09:40:58 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 17, 2020, 09:16:13 PM
I think I'm the first victim of the virus in our county -- that, or the flu. I've had a fever the entire day, along with fatigue and a sore throat. Haven't had a chance to visit the hospital yet -- don't see the point, now that I'm okay (more or less) and if I do; well I'm fifteen, my immune system still works fine.

Definitely call your family physician, before or instead of making the trek to the hospital. Hospitals don't like potential coronavirus cases just showing up at the ER -- it really helps to give them advance notice, so they can get ready for you, and protect their staff and other patients (that's the advice my health plan's medical group offers, about going to their offices). But your doctor might tell you it's just the flu, which could end up as an easier or no hospital visit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wanderer2575 on March 17, 2020, 09:45:12 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 17, 2020, 08:35:31 PM
What is and isn't closed in Washington per the Governor's order (took effect today statewide):

https://twitter.com/WADeptHealth/status/1239979010496630785

Grocery stores are allowed but barber shops aren't?  Is anybody @#$%&! thinking a thought around there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 09:53:43 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 17, 2020, 09:35:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 09:24:55 PM
I've had my suspicions myself.  I had a really weird flu which was way more in line symptoms wise with what is being published on Coronavirus than a typical flu.  The thing that caught me off guard was the difficultly I had breathing for a couple days and the dry cough that lasted for about 10 days.  The fever was really bad for about 48 hours and missed out on Christmas because I stayed home.  I did go to the Urgent Care about a week in just to be sure I didn't have something weird, they said was probably the flu and not to worry unless it got worse.  I haven't had breathing issues like that since I was in Grade School and I definitely work around people who visit China occasionally.

I haven't had the flu in years, but something strange happened recently. I have a family member who was very ill the entire second half of February. I saw them several times, and they kept bragging that it was "only" a cold. They absolutely refused to see a doctor. I saw them on February 29, and on March 8, I was so tired I couldn't do anything. I get like that anyway, because of other long-term health problems, but that was one of the worst days I can ever remember. I actually thought I was going to die. Extreme fatigue is one of the symptoms of coronavirus. Incubation period can indeed be as high as 8 days. But I didn't have any other symptoms. I always feel very run-down though.

I had whooping cough in 2017-18 that sounded EXACTLY like coronavirus though.

The fatigue for me was bad enough I had a hard getting out of bed most of the duration of the fever.  What was really strange was that there was zero lead up into getting sick.  I was walking down the hall feeling fine at work and it hit suddenly.  I barely made it home before some of the really severe symptoms kicked in.  I ended up crawling into bed with; fatigue, upset stomach, vomiting, chills, and a severe fever.  My chest started to hurt really bad during the night which is when the breathing difficulty kicked in.

Nobody else around ended up getting sick or had similar symptoms as far as I know.  Usually when I get the flu I get a mild fever, some fatigue, maybe a runny nose, and not much more.  I have a feeling that once this all said and done there will end up being a lot of cases where people didn't even know they had the present pandemic virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: oscar on March 17, 2020, 10:03:52 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on March 17, 2020, 09:45:12 PM

Grocery stores are allowed but barber shops aren't?  Is anybody @#$%&! thinking a thought around there?

Same for hair salons. The Governor, other politicians, and agency heads might look awful in public appearances after awhile, unless they were to sneak into Oregon to have their hair cut or styled. So might ordinary citizens, which would not present a good image for the state.

"Leisure/hobby/social clubs" (apparently prohibited, even if their meetings comply with the 50-person limit) is another puzzler.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 10:24:45 PM
Quote from: oscar on March 17, 2020, 10:03:52 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on March 17, 2020, 09:45:12 PM

Grocery stores are allowed but barber shops aren't?  Is anybody @#$%&! thinking a thought around there?

Same for hair salons. The Governor, other politicians, and agency heads might look awful in public appearances after awhile, unless they were to sneak into Oregon to have their hair cut or styled. So might ordinary citizens, which would not present a good image for the state.

Think about it; it's all about the distance factor. How do you cut someone's hair from 6-feet away?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 17, 2020, 11:07:57 PM
Missouri State Highway Patrol has suspended driver's license tests until further notice. My plan was to take the test over the ongoing Spring Break, conveniently enough.. so who knows when I can finally get my license. Are there any other states doing this? Restaurants are take out/drive-thru/delivery only here.

I plan on taking advantage of the brief period of sunshine we have by taking a short trip to the nearby Mark Twain Nat'l Forest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 17, 2020, 11:17:27 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 17, 2020, 11:07:57 PM
Missouri State Highway Patrol has suspended driver's license tests until further notice. My plan was to take the test over the ongoing Spring Break, conveniently enough.. so who knows when I can finally get my license. Are there any other states doing this? Restaurants are take out/drive-thru/delivery only here.
All the DMV branches in CT are closed until further notice. 90-day extensions for all license renewals.  Everything else except administrative hearings are postponed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wxfree on March 17, 2020, 11:27:10 PM
Texas driver license and vehicle registration expirations are now in a grace period.  I'm trying to look up whether you can still get renewals, but the state's web site is down.  I'd guess that crowded offices are places they'd want you to avoid.  Because of the site outage, I don't know if you can renew either online.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 17, 2020, 11:27:46 PM
It surprises me Washington state is still allowing public libraries to stay open.  Four libraries in Kansas (including my own, as of today) are closed, and in Ohio, Cincinnati's is closed indefinitely (reviewable weekly).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: rickmastfan67 on March 17, 2020, 11:53:35 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 17, 2020, 11:07:57 PM
Missouri State Highway Patrol has suspended driver's license tests until further notice. My plan was to take the test over the ongoing Spring Break, conveniently enough.. so who knows when I can finally get my license. Are there any other states doing this?

PA. https://www.penndot.gov/pages/all-news-details.aspx?newsid=716
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 18, 2020, 01:51:44 AM
I had a severe cold in late January that kept me in bed, coincidentally at the same time the first U.S. case was reported in Everett. The hospital where the patient was kept in isolation is only a stone's throw from my college building.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Duke87 on March 18, 2020, 02:15:34 AM
Quote from: oscar on March 17, 2020, 10:03:52 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on March 17, 2020, 09:45:12 PM

Grocery stores are allowed but barber shops aren't?  Is anybody @#$%&! thinking a thought around there?

Same for hair salons. The Governor, other politicians, and agency heads might look awful in public appearances after awhile, unless they were to sneak into Oregon to have their hair cut or styled. So might ordinary citizens, which would not present a good image for the state.

Or take care of the matter at home.

I have no use or need for barbers. My wife cuts my hair using a $30 buzzer. That paid for itself nice and quick.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 18, 2020, 07:07:27 AM
I've been participating in meetings where the questions being asked lead me to believe that by the end of the week, the Federal government will be shutting down all but essential services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 18, 2020, 07:23:08 AM
I believe NYSDOT management is actually being called back into the office today while staffers stay at home.  Wonder if one of the reasons is that telecommuting statewide did not go well yesterday allegedly due to ITS either forgetting that their virtual desktop licenses were limited or incompetently underestimating usage.  Issues were sorted out by the end of the day, insofar as I know, though.

Or, perhaps they discovered the benefit of being within face-to-face distance was greater than the health and safety benefit of staying home?

(personal opinion emphasized)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 18, 2020, 07:37:00 AM
Our governor has banned gatherings of more than 10 people in restaurants, fitness centers, and theaters.

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/police-given-order-to-enforce-ban-limiting-public-gatherings-to-10-people (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/police-given-order-to-enforce-ban-limiting-public-gatherings-to-10-people)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 18, 2020, 08:03:20 AM
Several grocery stores here have said they're asking people to restrict the first hour of shopping to people in "high-risk" groups–older people, pregnant women, etc., although at least one stores (Balducci's) said people deemed "essential workers" are allowed as well (they enforce this on the honor system). Knowing the way DC-area people are, I'm not optimistic customers will honor the request.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ftballfan on March 18, 2020, 10:41:09 AM
Michigan was one of the early states to close stuff down.
Right now:
K-12 schools are closed until April 6 (and several large districts have their previously-scheduled spring break the week of April 6)
Bars and restaurants are take-out/drive-thru/delivery only through at least March 30 (likely to get extended)
Secretary of State offices are by appointment only for in-person services until April 6 (online services are unaffected)
Gyms and beauty salons are closed through at least March 30 (also likely to get extended)
Colleges are online-only through the end of the winter semester (which ends at most schools in late April/early May)

I just saw where Nevada has employed similar restrictions through at least April 17. I have a feeling a nationwide ban will come down soon, even though many states have already implemented similar restrictions
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 18, 2020, 10:57:54 AM
So I wonder how this will impact major road construction projects... yesterday I noticed they were still doing work on the Piscataqua River Bridge (https://www.buildingabettergateway.com/piscataqua-river-bridge/) (and even reducing the bridge to one lane and lowering the speed limit to 70 km/h (45 mph)) with the lighter traffic volumes. Are other current roadworks projects still occurring in other areas, especially with the lighter volumes?

Here in my area, there are the major projects that are currently occurring:

Maine:
Piscataqua River Bridge improvements (https://www.buildingabettergateway.com/piscataqua-river-bridge/)
York Toll Plaza ORT conversion (https://www.buildingabettergateway.com/york-toll-plaza/)
Maine Turnpike Widening MM44-49 (https://www.maineturnpike.com/Projects/Construction-Projects/PAW-overview.aspx)

NH:
Spaulding Turnpike near Exit 6 area (http://www.newington-dover.com/)
I-93 Widening Salem to Manchester (http://www.rebuildingi93.com/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 18, 2020, 11:44:10 AM
Quote from: fwydriver405 on March 18, 2020, 10:57:54 AM
So I wonder how this will impact major road construction projects... yesterday I noticed they were still doing work on the Piscataqua River Bridge (https://www.buildingabettergateway.com/piscataqua-river-bridge/) (and even reducing the bridge to one lane and lowering the speed limit to 70 km/h (45 mph)) with the lighter traffic volumes. Are other current roadworks projects still occurring in other areas, especially with the lighter volumes?

I don't see why they wouldn't. They're under contract. The work is outdoors, so social distancing shouldn't be a problem. Lighter traffic should actually make things better and maybe faster.

What is a bigger concern are projects not under contract. Fighting the virus isn't cheap, and is going to have to be paid for somehow. There's also a buzz around the ITE community about how to deal with traffic counts that were supposed to occur this year. Do we hold off and wait for "normal" to return? Will normal return? Do we proceed as normal and apply seasonal factors?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 11:58:02 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 17, 2020, 11:27:46 PM
It surprises me Washington state is still allowing public libraries to stay open.  Four libraries in Kansas (including my own, as of today) are closed, and in Ohio, Cincinnati's is closed indefinitely (reviewable weekly).

So far, Tacoma and Seattle have closed their branches (maybe more, but I only have cards for these two library systems). 

We're supposed to have great weather this week so I'm glad to see outdoor activities are still fine.  I think a trip to Mt. St. Helens is in order since I can do the whole thing without interacting with another human.  Nature is one of those things that'll keep me sane during this Great Coop-Up
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: 1995hoo on March 18, 2020, 12:08:11 PM
We saw ample road construction continuing on the I-66 HO/T lane project on Sunday. It doesn't make sense to stop work on something that's partially constructed, especially a "megaproject" of that sort (widening and rebuilding approximately 20 miles of Interstate). It may make a lot of sense to adjust the work schedule or impose new rules for how employees do their work, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 12:18:40 PM
I'm the only at the Subaru dealership getting service.  Its kind of nice since I'm starting to catch up on highway article writing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 18, 2020, 12:51:42 PM
The only state agency that has suspended road work, to my knowledge, is PENNDOT.  And that may only be for in-house jobs, not capital projects with contractors doing the heavy lifting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 01:16:05 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al

If indeed this is the case, we're going to see a serious restructuring of how our society works.  I mean, I do hope that remote work becomes more prevalent since lots of jobs can be done online (I've been exclusively remote since 2012).  Companies that already have a WFH setup with VPNs and other structure will likely weather this fairly well...comparatively speaking. 

The restaurant/travel industries, though.  Yikes.  I can't see much good in their futures, which sucks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 18, 2020, 01:18:15 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al
Your link only works on mobile (for me, at least), though I would hope by then we would have a decent vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 01:21:36 PM
As I see it, we are locked down until (1) there is a vaccine widely available, or (2) a therapy is devised that ends the capacity of this disease to drive ICU utilization.  The Washington Post currently has a breaking news item to the effect that data from France suggests that even people of the millennial generation (ranging in age from 25 to 40) are ending up in ICU at large percentages.  This is not bad cold or flu so much as it is SARS-lite.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: JoePCool14 on March 18, 2020, 01:26:25 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al

Here's the link to the article for those on desktop:
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3

Anyways, I honestly do not care how bad it gets, I will not stay inside for 18 months for a virus with a global death rate of around 4%. As soon as this virus "ends", a new one will come up and we'll be right back to square one. That's completely unacceptable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: vdeane on March 18, 2020, 01:29:18 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 18, 2020, 01:18:15 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al
Your link only works on mobile (for me, at least), though I would hope by then we would have a decent vaccine.
12-18 months is the estimated timeframe for getting a vaccine, so that's probably where the number came from.  And even then, you need time to roll it out and for everyone to get vaccinated.

This is, of course, if a vaccine is possible at all.  Whether humans can build lasting immunity to the virus and/or whether it mutates enough to make vaccine development difficult (like the flu) are still open questions.  There are also a few potential treatments, though, which if successful could help by making sure cases don't get severe too often, easing the burden on the healthcare system.

Quote from: JoePCool14 on March 18, 2020, 01:26:25 PM
Anyways, I honestly do not care how bad it gets, I will not stay inside for 18 months for a virus with a global death rate of around 4%. As soon as this virus "ends", a new one will come up and we'll be right back to square one. That's completely unacceptable.
Why do you say that?  SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Ebola, and AIDS are all much more containable than coronavirus, which is why those didn't disrupt society anywhere close to as much.  For something that's even remotely comparable, you have to go back to Spanish flu (which actually had a death rate of 2%).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 01:30:46 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.

I won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Brian556 on March 18, 2020, 01:36:30 PM
Guys, it only takes 2-3 weeks of distancing to stop the spread of the virus. China did that and they were successful. They are not going to lock us down for 18 months. Sheesh
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 01:38:57 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al
Most likely, things will ease sooner. My prediction is fever checkpoints will be set up all over the place as an early detection method. And no large concerts for 2 years
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 01:40:25 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on March 18, 2020, 01:36:30 PM
Guys, it only takes 2-3 weeks of distancing to stop the spread of the virus. China did that and they were successful. They are not going to lock us down for 18 months. Sheesh
Thing is, until spread is kept under control - second wave of lockup is to follow.
Lockup can help subside the flare, but it will not be eliminated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 01:41:25 PM
I've been practicing social distancing since 1987 when I saw some of the filthy things that slobs at my high school did. I even practiced it at home, because of family members who thought spreading germs was funny. If someone stomped through the den with what they said was "only" a cold, I'd get out of the way. Anything they'd touched, I'd wait some time before touching it.

If someone had a cold, you'd get away from them lickety-split.

In other words, I do my part. I have since I was 14. My reward for it should not be having to live under martial law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 01:44:25 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on March 18, 2020, 01:36:30 PM
Guys, it only takes 2-3 weeks of distancing to stop the spread of the virus. China did that and they were successful. They are not going to lock us down for 18 months. Sheesh
Their logic is that after China releases its restrictions, cases will start happening again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 18, 2020, 01:47:48 PM
A complete lockdown needs to happen for about 4 weeks.  Nobody leaves home except to work; acquire food, household supplies or medicine; or to exercise (though with minimal contact with others).

If we can do that successfully, we can start easing restrictions gradually, but international travel should probably be prohibited for 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 02:15:20 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 01:41:25 PM
I've been practicing social distancing since 1987 when I saw some of the filthy things that slobs at my high school did. I even practiced it at home, because of family members who thought spreading germs was funny. If someone stomped through the den with what they said was "only" a cold, I'd get out of the way. Anything they'd touched, I'd wait some time before touching it.

If someone had a cold, you'd get away from them lickety-split.

In other words, I do my part. I have since I was 14. My reward for it should not be having to live under martial law.

I've never been much of a social butterfly and I pretty much almost everything I can in my own life to avoid large groups of people or unnecessary interaction anyways.  Usually that surprises most people who kind of causally know me since I tend be pretty outgoing in pretty much every other facet of life.  To that end, it has been somewhat ironic to see "social distancing" thrown out there as the latest thing to do at the moment.  The real irony that I'm seeing in an area that isn't under mandatory lock down is that being out and about doing errands tends to be far more isolating than staying at home...at least right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 02:15:56 PM
I think the best attitude to take is that humans are extremely adaptable and in trying circumstances we come up with unique and often clever solutions.  I can't offer predictions other than 18 months from now we could potentially be living a rearranged society.  And I truly hope we take this time to reflect on what's important as human beings.  Maybe science and knowledge will firmly take hold over conspiracy theories.  There's going to certainly be a lot of hilarious memes. 

And for god's sake I hope instagram influencers somehow go away during this time  :-D
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 02:22:23 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 02:15:56 PM
I think the best attitude to take is that humans are extremely adaptable and in trying circumstances we come up with unique and often clever solutions.  I can't offer predictions other than 18 months from now we could potentially be living a rearranged society.  And I truly hope we take this time to reflect on what's important as human beings.  Maybe science and knowledge will firmly take hold over conspiracy theories.  There's going to certainly be a lot of hilarious memes. 

And for god's sake I hope instagram influencers somehow go away during this time  :-D

One of the biggest things that I think will be a take away at the end of this is that way too many people were spreading information that probably shouldn't have been.  I don't know exactly how you control the message on what's going on in this modern age but there has been a ton of misinformation and conjecture that hasn't helped anybody. 

To that end, the lasting effects (if I were to offer a hot take) would probably be as life altering as 9/11.  Life will go on and in time be normalized but it wouldn't quite be how it was.  I suppose it could be infinitely worse, I wonder how society would handle things like; full scale wars, large scale famine, true global level economic depression, and several other historical events that hit hard even the last 150 years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hbelkins on March 18, 2020, 02:30:31 PM
Business Insider is hardly a reliable source. It has a distinct leftward slant.

KYTC has closed all facilities to all outside traffic. They are identifying employees who can telecommute. I suspect I'm on the list, given that I was asked to fill out a form that listed job duties I could and could not do from home, but I've stressed that I do not want to telecommute. It would save me on gas and wear on the vehicle, but I prefer to come in to the office.

As of now, we are continuing maintenance and construction projects, and I see no need for that to change.

Quote from: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 01:21:36 PM
As I see it, we are locked down until (1) there is a vaccine widely available, or (2) a therapy is devised that ends the capacity of this disease to drive ICU utilization.  The Washington Post currently has a breaking news item to the effect that data from France suggests that even people of the millennial generation (ranging in age from 25 to 40) are ending up in ICU at large percentages.  This is not bad cold or flu so much as it is SARS-lite.

It seems to me that there's too much current emphasis on a vaccine and too little emphasis on coming up with Tamiflu for this Chinese virus. Call it TamaCovid or something. A cure, at this stage, would be better than a preventive. And given how poorly the flu vaccine performs each year, I'm not sure I'd trust a vaccine to work. Someone I know had the flu shot, yet he caught the flu two weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 02:22:23 PM

One of the biggest things that I think will be a take away at the end of this is that way too many people were spreading information that probably shouldn't have been.  I don't know exactly how you control the message on what's going on in this modern age but there has been a ton of misinformation and conjecture that hasn't helped anybody. 

To that end, the lasting effects (if I were to offer a hot take) would probably be as life altering as 9/11.  Life will go on and in time be normalized but it wouldn't quite be how it was.  I suppose it could be infinitely worse, I wonder how society would handle things like; full scale wars, large scale famine, true global level economic depression, and several other historical events that hit hard even the last 150 years.

I hope that we can socially shun those who spread fake information.  This "alternate facts" timeline needs to be slammed shut.  It's fine and dandy to speculate about aliens building pyramids, but when it comes to literal life & death things, misinformation is incredibly irresponsible. 

I also agree this could be life changing like 9/11, especially if it stretches out beyond July or August. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 02:34:56 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 18, 2020, 02:30:31 PM
Business Insider is hardly a reliable source. It has a distinct leftward slant.

Ya know, I'd far prefer people discuss the contents of an article based on a logical, critical thinking approach rather than being dismissive because perhaps a source isn't aligned with your personal politics.  We can clearly point out that Fox News has been putting out disastrous information the past six weeks (such as Rep. Nunes suggesting everyone run out to eat at restaurants and pubs). 

But if there's something in the article that is inaccurate or perhaps relying on speculation over solid facts, that is fair game to be called out and discussed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 18, 2020, 02:42:02 PM
Who knows how long before things will be back to "normal". But I think by the end of April, we'll know the answer, or at least have a better idea of the answer, to that question. A lot of practical challenges are going to start arising after six weeks. Schools, for one. Sports leagues, for two. And people just plain and simply aren't going to stay cooped up at home forever.

The first two-three weeks (starting last Wed. 03/11 when all sports were suspended) are probably the most important, and we just have to wait and see how it plays out after that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ET21 on March 18, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
Working from home helps to keep the mind busy, otherwise I'm in paradise cause now everyone is online to play games  :bigass:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 03:07:01 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 02:22:23 PM

One of the biggest things that I think will be a take away at the end of this is that way too many people were spreading information that probably shouldn't have been.  I don't know exactly how you control the message on what's going on in this modern age but there has been a ton of misinformation and conjecture that hasn't helped anybody. 

To that end, the lasting effects (if I were to offer a hot take) would probably be as life altering as 9/11.  Life will go on and in time be normalized but it wouldn't quite be how it was.  I suppose it could be infinitely worse, I wonder how society would handle things like; full scale wars, large scale famine, true global level economic depression, and several other historical events that hit hard even the last 150 years.

I hope that we can socially shun those who spread fake information.  This "alternate facts" timeline needs to be slammed shut.  It's fine and dandy to speculate about aliens building pyramids, but when it comes to literal life & death things, misinformation is incredibly irresponsible. 

I also agree this could be life changing like 9/11, especially if it stretches out beyond July or August.
Problem is, there are a lot of small things which can change perception of the situation quite a bit. "Official" information is quite flaky as well.
CDC bravely reported that they shipped out test kits. They did their best, right?
Fine print: kits barely working, FDA banned research lab from testing, and refused to get help from China. Now most of the world runs 15 min tests while US hospitals run out of supplies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 03:20:03 PM
Quote from: ET21 on March 18, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
Working from home helps to keep the mind busy, otherwise I'm in paradise cause now everyone is online to play games  :bigass:

I haven't bought a video game since 2009.  Around that time I started to be able to go do the things that I wanted to do regularly (which were mostly outdoor recreational in nature) financially.  Nowadays sitting at home waiting for news or phone calls from work sounds like being condemned to my own personal hell.  Even when I was younger or a child I don't recall sitting at home due to illness or financial constraints as being something I ever enjoyed.  My Dad was a software engineer and marketing guy, my Mom was equally content with the dullness of home life.  I took every opportunity to escape when I could but when you're under 18 those options are limited, they are not more open in early adult life due to money and/or school.  For some I can see how being home is a boon for them, I don't think that I'm alone though in saying that it is a potential nightmare of malaise for others. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 18, 2020, 05:08:52 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al
Stuck home, but you'll still be able to grocery shop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 05:18:20 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 18, 2020, 05:08:52 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al
Stuck home, but you'll still be able to grocery shop.
For one, there will be less grocery shopping. I could easily go to 2-3 places on Friday-Saturday, and do 2-3 small stops during the week on top of that, if milk runs low etc.
Will be one weekly stock-up in foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 06:32:31 PM
An interesting blog article from a University of Washington meteorologist:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-weather-sensitivity-of-coronavirus.html (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-weather-sensitivity-of-coronavirus.html)

[quote} it appears that warm temperatures and high humidity is bad for the virus (or similar viruses).  Also ultraviolet radiation from the sun is problematic for the virus.  Thus, in many populated locations in the northern hemisphere, the virus will experience a less favorable environment.[/quote]

Fingers crossed that this hypothesis turns out to be correct. And maybe it's time to relocate to Tucson like I've been thinking!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 18, 2020, 06:47:18 PM
This is making me sick to my stomach

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 07:09:18 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 18, 2020, 06:47:18 PM
This is making me sick to my stomach

LGL322DL
Just wait until it makes you sick to your lungs....
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 18, 2020, 07:14:25 PM
*screams*

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: US71 on March 18, 2020, 07:25:07 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :-(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp, et al

404: Not Found
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Fresno declared a similar shelter in place to the Bay Area which starts at midnight.  Interestingly none of the surrounding cited nor Fresno County have acted in concert.  As of the moment the order is to the end of the month and isn't all that different than what has been going on already.  I had both cars worked on earlier today and it was a ghost town all over the City.  I'll be setting up my weight set in the garage, good thing I got the maximum number of days in I could.  Apparently it is cool to be outside as long as you stay 6 feet away from people. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 18, 2020, 07:26:59 PM
Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart (FL-25; one of the few moderate Republicans) tests positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on March 18, 2020, 07:46:14 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 18, 2020, 07:25:07 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 18, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
So they're saying that we'll be stuck home for 18 months.  :(

www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp (http://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-warning-pandemic-will-last-18-months-multiple-waves-2020-3%3famp), et al

404: Not Found
That's the ATL for ya ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 18, 2020, 08:37:45 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 11:58:02 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 17, 2020, 11:27:46 PM
It surprises me Washington state is still allowing public libraries to stay open.  Four libraries in Kansas (including my own, as of today) are closed, and in Ohio, Cincinnati's is closed indefinitely (reviewable weekly).

So far, Tacoma and Seattle have closed their branches (maybe more, but I only have cards for these two library systems). 

We're supposed to have great weather this week so I'm glad to see outdoor activities are still fine.  I think a trip to Mt. St. Helens is in order since I can do the whole thing without interacting with another human.  Nature is one of those things that'll keep me sane during this Great Coop-Up

Basically every library system in Western Washington (and a few in Eastern Washington) have announced closures into April: Seattle, King County, Pierce County, Tacoma, Sno-Isle, Everett, Timberland, Kitsap, North Central, Whatcom, Bellingham, Spokane...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 08:44:04 PM
This will likely affect tons of planned road projects. I know OkDOT is going to take a huge hit. Oklahoma, just from the loss of gaming, will take a 100 million budget hit alone and that doesn't factor in oil or other economic hits. I can't even imagine what the update to their 8yr plan will be this fall unless nothing short of a miracle happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 09:00:38 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 08:44:04 PM
This will likely affect tons of planned road projects. I know OkDOT is going to take a huge hit. Oklahoma, just from the loss of gaming, will take a 100 million budget hit alone and that doesn't factor in oil or other economic hits. I can't even imagine what the update to their 8yr plan will be this fall unless nothing short of a miracle happens.
why, it is very easy to imagine.
***everything chacelled***
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 09:36:22 PM
Upthread, Kalvado spoke of countries where coronavirus testing can be finished within fifteen minutes.

Meanwhile, here in Kansas the state has just written off Johnson County, which has 12 cases and known community spread, because it is feared that any significant expansion of testing there will burn through the supply of test kits for the whole state.  Patients in the county will now be tested only when they are hospitalized.

At the moment, Kansas has a total of 23 cases (12 in Johnson, 5 in Wyandotte, 2 in Leavenworth, 1 each in Douglas, Franklin, Butler, and Ford Counties, all but the last two being in the northeast part of the state).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 09:55:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 09:36:22 PM
Upthread, Kalvado spoke of countries where coronavirus testing can be finished within fifteen minutes.

Meanwhile, here in Kansas the state has just written off Johnson County, which has 12 cases and known community spread, because it is feared that any significant expansion of testing there will burn through the supply of test kits for the whole state.  Patients in the county will now be tested only when they are hospitalized.

At the moment, Kansas has a total of 23 cases (12 in Johnson, 5 in Wyandotte, 2 in Leavenworth, 1 each in Douglas, Franklin, Butler, and Ford Counties, all but the last two being in the northeast part of the state).
If you think about how the situation developed... US firmly joined the third world.
CDC reported early on that they shipped diagnostic kits - but restricted the use so that infection could spread. They banned research teams not certified for such from doing tests - and once they disobeyed and found infection spreading, banned the team from any tests.
Then it was reported one of 3 CDC primers gives uncertain results, whatever that means.
Now it is reported that second primer has high rate of false positives.
Foreign assistance, of course, got refused, and now US has no even poorly performing tests.

First time in my life when I think the death penalty is not just justified, but has to be liberally applied to those in charge. 

This is not current administration failure, this is systematic failure on many levels, and same problem goes to 737MAX, same goes to roundabout design.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:00:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 09:55:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 09:36:22 PM
Upthread, Kalvado spoke of countries where coronavirus testing can be finished within fifteen minutes.

Meanwhile, here in Kansas the state has just written off Johnson County, which has 12 cases and known community spread, because it is feared that any significant expansion of testing there will burn through the supply of test kits for the whole state.  Patients in the county will now be tested only when they are hospitalized.

At the moment, Kansas has a total of 23 cases (12 in Johnson, 5 in Wyandotte, 2 in Leavenworth, 1 each in Douglas, Franklin, Butler, and Ford Counties, all but the last two being in the northeast part of the state).
If you think about how the situation developed... US firmly joined the third world.
CDC reported early on that they shipped diagnostic kits - but restricted the use so that infection could spread. They banned research teams not certified for such from doing tests - and once they disobeyed and found infection spreading, banned the team from any tests.
Then it was reported one of 3 CDC primers gives uncertain results, whatever that means.
Now it is reported that second primer has high rate of false positives.
Foreign assistance, of course, got refused, and now US has no even poorly performing tests.

First time in my life when I think the death penalty is not just justified, but has to be liberally applied to those in charge. 

This is not current administration failure, this is systematic failure on many levels, and same problem goes to 737MAX, same goes to roundabout design.

I would certainly hope that's a fringe use of sarcasm but given the way this thread seems to be going at times I'm not really all that sure. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 18, 2020, 10:01:35 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 18, 2020, 06:32:31 PM
Quoteit appears that warm temperatures and high humidity is bad for the virus (or similar viruses).  Also ultraviolet radiation from the sun is problematic for the virus.  Thus, in many populated locations in the northern hemisphere, the virus will experience a less favorable environment.
Fingers crossed that this hypothesis turns out to be correct. And maybe it's time to relocate to Tucson like I've been thinking!

Actually, maybe not:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/why-we-shouldnt-hope-covid-19-is-seasonal-like-the-flu/

Sounds great right now to think of warm summer sunshine melting the virus away, but if it goes away in summer, it will almost certainly be back in fall. We really need to just get this right and get rid of it for good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 18, 2020, 10:02:03 PM
In order to have had stopped this virus from spreading, the borders to the United States would have had to been shut down back in January. No one would have ever allowed that and would have crucified anyone who suggested it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:07:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:00:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 09:55:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 09:36:22 PM
Upthread, Kalvado spoke of countries where coronavirus testing can be finished within fifteen minutes.

Meanwhile, here in Kansas the state has just written off Johnson County, which has 12 cases and known community spread, because it is feared that any significant expansion of testing there will burn through the supply of test kits for the whole state.  Patients in the county will now be tested only when they are hospitalized.

At the moment, Kansas has a total of 23 cases (12 in Johnson, 5 in Wyandotte, 2 in Leavenworth, 1 each in Douglas, Franklin, Butler, and Ford Counties, all but the last two being in the northeast part of the state).
If you think about how the situation developed... US firmly joined the third world.
CDC reported early on that they shipped diagnostic kits - but restricted the use so that infection could spread. They banned research teams not certified for such from doing tests - and once they disobeyed and found infection spreading, banned the team from any tests.
Then it was reported one of 3 CDC primers gives uncertain results, whatever that means.
Now it is reported that second primer has high rate of false positives.
Foreign assistance, of course, got refused, and now US has no even poorly performing tests.

First time in my life when I think the death penalty is not just justified, but has to be liberally applied to those in charge. 

This is not current administration failure, this is systematic failure on many levels, and same problem goes to 737MAX, same goes to roundabout design.

I would certainly hope that's a fringe use of sarcasm but given the way this thread seems to be going at times I'm not really all that sure.

Well, bureaucracy and unqualified technical stuff result in deaths. I do think this has to be investigated as a crime, and that the death penalty is an appropriate sentence.
They usually argue that the threat of such a penalty should stop criminal minds from acting - which doesn't seem to be the case. But it can very well work for white-collar killers,  who should see their responsibility as a personal thing, not abstract matter as they are shielded by government immunity. Third world realities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:09:49 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:07:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:00:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 09:55:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 09:36:22 PM
Upthread, Kalvado spoke of countries where coronavirus testing can be finished within fifteen minutes.

Meanwhile, here in Kansas the state has just written off Johnson County, which has 12 cases and known community spread, because it is feared that any significant expansion of testing there will burn through the supply of test kits for the whole state.  Patients in the county will now be tested only when they are hospitalized.

At the moment, Kansas has a total of 23 cases (12 in Johnson, 5 in Wyandotte, 2 in Leavenworth, 1 each in Douglas, Franklin, Butler, and Ford Counties, all but the last two being in the northeast part of the state).
If you think about how the situation developed... US firmly joined the third world.
CDC reported early on that they shipped diagnostic kits - but restricted the use so that infection could spread. They banned research teams not certified for such from doing tests - and once they disobeyed and found infection spreading, banned the team from any tests.
Then it was reported one of 3 CDC primers gives uncertain results, whatever that means.
Now it is reported that second primer has high rate of false positives.
Foreign assistance, of course, got refused, and now US has no even poorly performing tests.

First time in my life when I think the death penalty is not just justified, but has to be liberally applied to those in charge. 

This is not current administration failure, this is systematic failure on many levels, and same problem goes to 737MAX, same goes to roundabout design.

I would certainly hope that's a fringe use of sarcasm but given the way this thread seems to be going at times I'm not really all that sure.

Well, bureaucracy and unqualified technical stuff result in deaths. I do think this has to be investigated as a crime, and that the death penalty is an appropriate sentence.
They usually argue that the threat of such a penalty should stop criminal minds from acting - which doesn't seem to be the case. But it can very well work for white-collar killers,  who should see their responsibility as a personal thing, not abstract matter as they are shielded by government immunity. Third world realities.

The fact that you're serious talking about executing people in my opinion shoots your credibility completely to hell.  People like you who suggest things like this are just as a big of a problem in terms of spreading fear and discontent as those who would do nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: webny99 on March 18, 2020, 10:11:47 PM
I think we are to the point where it might be a good idea to take a chill and remind ourselves that things will be OK, and talk about some of the road-related impacts.

Impacts to some of the bigger, long-term projects were mentioned upthread: it is hard at this moment to envision such being needed.
Thinking more short-term, construction has already ramped up on the Thruway in the infamous Seneca Nation, which has to be completely reconstructed. There's also been work at several of the AET conversion locations. There's been a bit of local work too with filling potholes, etc. On balance, I think this is actually a good opportunity for construction crews to get things done with fewer people on the roads! Thoughts?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:12:09 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 18, 2020, 10:02:03 PM
In order to have had stopped this virus from spreading, the borders to the United States would have had to been shut down back in January. No one would have ever allowed that and would have crucified anyone who suggested it.
There was so much more that could be done. Isolation of community flares at early stages could be done. That would buy the most valuable thing - time. Time to setup mask production, if nothing else. Or, more likely, time to allow China to build up mask stock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:17:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:09:49 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:07:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:00:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 09:55:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 09:36:22 PM
Upthread, Kalvado spoke of countries where coronavirus testing can be finished within fifteen minutes.

Meanwhile, here in Kansas the state has just written off Johnson County, which has 12 cases and known community spread, because it is feared that any significant expansion of testing there will burn through the supply of test kits for the whole state.  Patients in the county will now be tested only when they are hospitalized.

At the moment, Kansas has a total of 23 cases (12 in Johnson, 5 in Wyandotte, 2 in Leavenworth, 1 each in Douglas, Franklin, Butler, and Ford Counties, all but the last two being in the northeast part of the state).
If you think about how the situation developed... US firmly joined the third world.
CDC reported early on that they shipped diagnostic kits - but restricted the use so that infection could spread. They banned research teams not certified for such from doing tests - and once they disobeyed and found infection spreading, banned the team from any tests.
Then it was reported one of 3 CDC primers gives uncertain results, whatever that means.
Now it is reported that second primer has high rate of false positives.
Foreign assistance, of course, got refused, and now US has no even poorly performing tests.

First time in my life when I think the death penalty is not just justified, but has to be liberally applied to those in charge. 

This is not current administration failure, this is systematic failure on many levels, and same problem goes to 737MAX, same goes to roundabout design.

I would certainly hope that's a fringe use of sarcasm but given the way this thread seems to be going at times I'm not really all that sure.

Well, bureaucracy and unqualified technical stuff result in deaths. I do think this has to be investigated as a crime, and that the death penalty is an appropriate sentence.
They usually argue that the threat of such a penalty should stop criminal minds from acting - which doesn't seem to be the case. But it can very well work for white-collar killers,  who should see their responsibility as a personal thing, not abstract matter as they are shielded by government immunity. Third world realities.

The fact that you're serious talking about executing people in my opinion shoots your credibility completely to hell.  People like you who suggest things like this are just as a big of a problem in terms of spreading fear and discontent as those who would do nothing.
I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. But current bureacracy is not doing honest mistakes, it is actually working against the people. Some of those bureaucrats need deep reality check. As deep as personal responsibility for their actions, in eye for eye style.
Credible or not... Maybe I just understand the freefall we're in better than you do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:23:10 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 18, 2020, 10:11:47 PM
I think we are to the point where it might be a good idea to take a chill and remind ourselves that things will be OK, and talk about some of the road-related impacts.

Impacts to some of the bigger, long-term projects were mentioned upthread: it is hard at this moment to envision such being needed.
Thinking more short-term, construction has already ramped up on the Thruway in the infamous Seneca Nation, which has to be completely reconstructed. There's also been work at several of the AET conversion locations. There's been a bit of local work too with filling potholes, etc. On balance, I think this is actually a good opportunity for construction crews to get things done with fewer people on the roads! Thoughts?
How much independent work can be done on the road? Any face to face communication - foremen explaining days job to workers, engineers setting up the project on site, etc.
Last time I checked, NY has a minimum of 3 people on the road doing pothole work.
Upstate may be good for another week or two, but sheter-in-place will be the next step. And no money for roads for at least a few months - if you're optimistic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:17:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:09:49 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:07:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:00:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 09:55:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 18, 2020, 09:36:22 PM
Upthread, Kalvado spoke of countries where coronavirus testing can be finished within fifteen minutes.

Meanwhile, here in Kansas the state has just written off Johnson County, which has 12 cases and known community spread, because it is feared that any significant expansion of testing there will burn through the supply of test kits for the whole state.  Patients in the county will now be tested only when they are hospitalized.

At the moment, Kansas has a total of 23 cases (12 in Johnson, 5 in Wyandotte, 2 in Leavenworth, 1 each in Douglas, Franklin, Butler, and Ford Counties, all but the last two being in the northeast part of the state).
If you think about how the situation developed... US firmly joined the third world.
CDC reported early on that they shipped diagnostic kits - but restricted the use so that infection could spread. They banned research teams not certified for such from doing tests - and once they disobeyed and found infection spreading, banned the team from any tests.
Then it was reported one of 3 CDC primers gives uncertain results, whatever that means.
Now it is reported that second primer has high rate of false positives.
Foreign assistance, of course, got refused, and now US has no even poorly performing tests.

First time in my life when I think the death penalty is not just justified, but has to be liberally applied to those in charge. 

This is not current administration failure, this is systematic failure on many levels, and same problem goes to 737MAX, same goes to roundabout design.

I would certainly hope that's a fringe use of sarcasm but given the way this thread seems to be going at times I'm not really all that sure.

Well, bureaucracy and unqualified technical stuff result in deaths. I do think this has to be investigated as a crime, and that the death penalty is an appropriate sentence.
They usually argue that the threat of such a penalty should stop criminal minds from acting - which doesn't seem to be the case. But it can very well work for white-collar killers,  who should see their responsibility as a personal thing, not abstract matter as they are shielded by government immunity. Third world realities.

The fact that you're serious talking about executing people in my opinion shoots your credibility completely to hell.  People like you who suggest things like this are just as a big of a problem in terms of spreading fear and discontent as those who would do nothing.
I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. But current bureacracy is not doing honest mistakes, it is actually working against the people. Some of those bureaucrats need deep reality check. As deep as personal responsibility for their actions, in eye for eye style.
Credible or not... Maybe I just understand the freefall we're in better than you do?

You're the one who seems to be okay with the notion of rounding up and offing people who didn't do things the way you would have wanted them done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:39:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
You're the one who seems to be okay with the notion of rounding up and offing people who didn't do things the way you would have wanted them done.
Third world problems require third world solutions.
again, I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. A lot of what happened in coronavirus situation goes way above and beyond honest mistake. And that becomes a trend, not a one-off situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DJStephens on March 18, 2020, 10:44:16 PM
  Bill Richardson's "rail runner" is apparently shut down until at least April 6th.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:48:07 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:39:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
You're the one who seems to be okay with the notion of rounding up and offing people who didn't do things the way you would have wanted them done.
Third world problems require third world solutions.
again, I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. A lot of what happened in coronavirus situation goes way above and beyond honest mistake. And that becomes a trend, not a one-off situation.

You don't sound like you'd be forgiving in the least.  You're the one seriously stating that people should be killed for what is going on.  You're the one who fails to grasp the insanity of the notion of rounding up people and executing them.  That statement is just as ugly and repulsive as those who were making comments about charging people with murder for wanting to be with their family in times of crisis (in the instance lethal disease transmission were to occur).  Maybe I'm the one who is wrong and we're no better in society than what you're calling for...I sure hope to hell that isn't the case. 

To that end, does anyone have any ACTUAL news on what is going on in their areas and not crap conjecture like what we're getting now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:57:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:48:07 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:39:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
You're the one who seems to be okay with the notion of rounding up and offing people who didn't do things the way you would have wanted them done.
Third world problems require third world solutions.
again, I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. A lot of what happened in coronavirus situation goes way above and beyond honest mistake. And that becomes a trend, not a one-off situation.

You don't sound like you'd be forgiving in the least.  You're the one seriously stating that people should be killed for what is going on.  You're the one who fails to grasp the insanity of the notion of rounding up people and executing them.  That statement is just as ugly and repulsive as those who were making comments about charging people with murder for wanting to be with their family in times of crisis (in the instance lethal disease transmission were to occur).  Maybe I'm the one who is wrong and we're no better in society than what you're calling for...I sure hope to hell that isn't the case. 

To that end, does anyone have any ACTUAL news on what is going on in their areas and not crap conjecture like what we're getting now?

You see, what I am saying is pretty simple - official who signs on a dotted line should bear responsibility for the document.
Someone signed off this document as an official CDC update: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp
there is a table there called "Criteria to Guide Evaluation and Testing of Patients Under Investigation (PUI) for 2019-nCoV". There is a middle coloumn saying "AND" - someone did type those letters on their keyboard, and someone put their name on a release document. Those three letters now cost lives. Should we look at the dotted line for the name of the responsible person?
I do remember it very well for a few reasons,  they also had a colorful poster to go along. And those letters made me raise eyebrows. Especially since CDC reported shipping out thousands of tests a few days before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 11:00:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:48:07 PM
To that end, does anyone have any ACTUAL news on what is going on in their areas and not crap conjecture like what we're getting now?
As far as I understand, things are not that bad YET. Problems are still to come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 11:01:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:57:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:48:07 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:39:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
You're the one who seems to be okay with the notion of rounding up and offing people who didn't do things the way you would have wanted them done.
Third world problems require third world solutions.
again, I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. A lot of what happened in coronavirus situation goes way above and beyond honest mistake. And that becomes a trend, not a one-off situation.

You don't sound like you'd be forgiving in the least.  You're the one seriously stating that people should be killed for what is going on.  You're the one who fails to grasp the insanity of the notion of rounding up people and executing them.  That statement is just as ugly and repulsive as those who were making comments about charging people with murder for wanting to be with their family in times of crisis (in the instance lethal disease transmission were to occur).  Maybe I'm the one who is wrong and we're no better in society than what you're calling for...I sure hope to hell that isn't the case. 

To that end, does anyone have any ACTUAL news on what is going on in their areas and not crap conjecture like what we're getting now?

You see, what I am saying is pretty simple - official who signs on a dotted line should bear responsibility for the document.
Someone signed off this document as an official CDC update: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp
there is a table there called "Criteria to Guide Evaluation and Testing of Patients Under Investigation (PUI) for 2019-nCoV". There is a middle coloumn saying "AND" - someone did type those letters on their keyboard, and someone put their name on a release document. Those three letters now cost lives. Should we look at the dotted line for the name of the responsible person?
I do remember it very well for a few reasons,  they also had a colorful poster to go along. And those letters made me raise eyebrows. Especially since CDC reported shipping out thousands of tests a few days before.

Yes it is simple, you are trying to justify executing people.  I didn't miss the point you were trying to make.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 11:08:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 11:01:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:57:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:48:07 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:39:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
You're the one who seems to be okay with the notion of rounding up and offing people who didn't do things the way you would have wanted them done.
Third world problems require third world solutions.
again, I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. A lot of what happened in coronavirus situation goes way above and beyond honest mistake. And that becomes a trend, not a one-off situation.

You don't sound like you'd be forgiving in the least.  You're the one seriously stating that people should be killed for what is going on.  You're the one who fails to grasp the insanity of the notion of rounding up people and executing them.  That statement is just as ugly and repulsive as those who were making comments about charging people with murder for wanting to be with their family in times of crisis (in the instance lethal disease transmission were to occur).  Maybe I'm the one who is wrong and we're no better in society than what you're calling for...I sure hope to hell that isn't the case. 

To that end, does anyone have any ACTUAL news on what is going on in their areas and not crap conjecture like what we're getting now?

You see, what I am saying is pretty simple - official who signs on a dotted line should bear responsibility for the document.
Someone signed off this document as an official CDC update: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp
there is a table there called "Criteria to Guide Evaluation and Testing of Patients Under Investigation (PUI) for 2019-nCoV". There is a middle coloumn saying "AND" - someone did type those letters on their keyboard, and someone put their name on a release document. Those three letters now cost lives. Should we look at the dotted line for the name of the responsible person?
I do remember it very well for a few reasons,  they also had a colorful poster to go along. And those letters made me raise eyebrows. Especially since CDC reported shipping out thousands of tests a few days before.

Yes it is simple, you are trying to justify executing people.  I didn't miss the point you were trying to make.
Well, modern day execution is a mostly painless death. Within next 2-3 months we'll be talking about thousands people who are going to slowly suffocate in full consciousness without medical help, without as much as morphine shot. Are you trying to justify that?
Yes, this is very blunt description. But it is an accurate one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:56:09 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Campbell is my first name. I guess I should try harder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Scott5114 on March 19, 2020, 12:28:06 AM
Quote from: ET21 on March 18, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
Working from home helps to keep the mind busy, otherwise I'm in paradise cause now everyone is online to play games  :bigass:

The quarantines have been pretty good for my state of mind, to be honest. I was in desperate need of a vacation before this, but didn't have the ability to take one. Now I do, even if it's a "staycation". Which is just fine with me.

I also have a side business printing and selling plastic playing cards, which I can devote more attention to with the day job out of the way for the time being. Website traffic is way up because of people trapped at home wanting to learn new games to pass the time. I'm glad that I can help people find ways to make the isolation period a little less dreary. And if I get some sales off of it, I should have no problem sending them out, so long as USPS is running, because I have gobs of inventory here in the house with me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 19, 2020, 12:29:16 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 11:08:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 11:01:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:57:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:48:07 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:39:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 18, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
You're the one who seems to be okay with the notion of rounding up and offing people who didn't do things the way you would have wanted them done.
Third world problems require third world solutions.
again, I am all for forgiving honest mistakes. A lot of what happened in coronavirus situation goes way above and beyond honest mistake. And that becomes a trend, not a one-off situation.

You don't sound like you'd be forgiving in the least.  You're the one seriously stating that people should be killed for what is going on.  You're the one who fails to grasp the insanity of the notion of rounding up people and executing them.  That statement is just as ugly and repulsive as those who were making comments about charging people with murder for wanting to be with their family in times of crisis (in the instance lethal disease transmission were to occur).  Maybe I'm the one who is wrong and we're no better in society than what you're calling for...I sure hope to hell that isn't the case. 

To that end, does anyone have any ACTUAL news on what is going on in their areas and not crap conjecture like what we're getting now?

You see, what I am saying is pretty simple - official who signs on a dotted line should bear responsibility for the document.
Someone signed off this document as an official CDC update: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp
there is a table there called "Criteria to Guide Evaluation and Testing of Patients Under Investigation (PUI) for 2019-nCoV". There is a middle coloumn saying "AND" - someone did type those letters on their keyboard, and someone put their name on a release document. Those three letters now cost lives. Should we look at the dotted line for the name of the responsible person?
I do remember it very well for a few reasons,  they also had a colorful poster to go along. And those letters made me raise eyebrows. Especially since CDC reported shipping out thousands of tests a few days before.

Yes it is simple, you are trying to justify executing people.  I didn't miss the point you were trying to make.
Well, modern day execution is a mostly painless death. Within next 2-3 months we'll be talking about thousands people who are going to slowly suffocate in full consciousness without medical help, without as much as morphine shot. Are you trying to justify that?
Yes, this is very blunt description. But it is an accurate one.

We may be dealing with those things in that timeframe and we may not. Despite most of the current news coverage, positive strides are being made in the fight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DaBigE on March 19, 2020, 12:42:05 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 19, 2020, 12:28:06 AM
Quote from: ET21 on March 18, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
Working from home helps to keep the mind busy, otherwise I'm in paradise cause now everyone is online to play games  :bigass:

The quarantines have been pretty good for my state of mind, to be honest. I was in desperate need of a vacation before this, but didn't have the ability to take one. Now I do, even if it's a "staycation". Which is just fine with me.

I wish I could say the same thing. While the commute is definitely shorter, it's made CAD work much more frustrating, having to work over VPN. We still have a lot of deadlines to meet, so there's no taking time off and lounging in front of Netflicks or Hulu. That, and now my wife is also working from home, too -- her having taken over the dining room table, while I work out of the office/bedroom. Couples do need time apart. :banghead:  A one bedroom apartment is not big enough and isn't helping... neither is the weather, which hasn't been very friendly to getting outside. Nature decided piled on top as well, being "that time of the month".  :ded:
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 19, 2020, 12:57:12 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Is that where they make Campbell's Soup?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 19, 2020, 12:58:15 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 18, 2020, 10:57:03 PMYou see, what I am saying is pretty simple - official who signs on a dotted line should bear responsibility for the document.

Someone signed off this document as an official CDC update: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp

there is a table there called "Criteria to Guide Evaluation and Testing of Patients Under Investigation (PUI) for 2019-nCoV". There is a middle coloumn saying "AND" - someone did type those letters on their keyboard, and someone put their name on a release document. Those three letters now cost lives. Should we look at the dotted line for the name of the responsible person?

I do remember it very well for a few reasons,  they also had a colorful poster to go along. And those letters made me raise eyebrows. Especially since CDC reported shipping out thousands of tests a few days before.

That HAN (which has no signature, BTW, thus opening the possibility that it was approved by a committee or working group rather than an individual) is dated February 1, 2020.  Were we aware at the time that asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmission was possible?  I myself was not, until I read a MedicineNet article (https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228343) dated February 20 that was based on research (involving German evacuees from Hubei province) published (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001899) in the New England Journal of Medicine on February 18.

This is a problem of testing strategy and, as such, is separate from the quality control problems (the third reagent leading to inconclusive results) that held up testing until the CDC agreed that tests using just the first two elements could be accepted as valid.  That, in turn, is separate from the regulatory issues that prevented foreign tests from being used.  There is apparently another layer of potential problems that arise from labs varying in their ability to enforce the process control that is required for reliable results, and that has had implications for certifying labs to test.

I certainly agree that we need a full postmortem (along the lines of the 9/11 Commission and the Challenger and Columbia inquiries) on what went wrong with testing at a time when the US had just dozens of confirmed cases and containment without mass disruption was still an option.  But fairness requires us to hold the CDC scientists accountable on the basis of the information they had in hand when they had to make the critical decisions.  One aspect of the testing mess I have not been able to find much information about is the reliability of the foreign tests as compared to the CDC's.  I have read that in an early phase in their crisis, the Chinese were making do with tests that yielded a 50% false negative rate, and current tests are generically described as having a 10% false negative rate because throat and nose swabs don't always capture what the virus is doing in the bottom of the lungs.

Plus, organizations tend to rot from the head down.  It was Trump, not anyone working for the CDC, who justified eliminating the CDC's pandemic response team in terms of not wanting to have people sitting around doing nothing while waiting for the next crisis.  And I have read it was Bolton's decision to eliminate the pandemic unit within the NSC (itself an Obama-era creation that I suspect had much to do with the swine flu crisis).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 19, 2020, 01:12:51 AM
The Canadian border is now closed for non-essential travel. Enclaves like Point Roberts are stuck. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/confusion-uncertainty-as-officials-announce-u-s-canada-border-restrictions-to-slow-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on March 19, 2020, 01:16:21 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 19, 2020, 01:12:51 AM
The Canadian border is now closed for non-essential travel. Enclaves like Point Roberts are stuck. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/confusion-uncertainty-as-officials-announce-u-s-canada-border-restrictions-to-slow-coronavirus/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/confusion-uncertainty-as-officials-announce-u-s-canada-border-restrictions-to-slow-coronavirus/)
Point Roberts eh...I know of a Roberts Road to the south of here so maybe there's a historical connection between the two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mgk920 on March 19, 2020, 03:48:10 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 18, 2020, 10:02:03 PM
In order to have had stopped this virus from spreading, the borders to the United States would have had to been shut down back in January. No one would have ever allowed that and would have crucified anyone who suggested it.

IIRC, the Feds did that at that time WRT passenger airline flights from much or all of China and perhaps one or two other places in eastern Asia.  Yes, 'usual suspects' were reaming Donald Trump out for that for being an "anti-Asian *RACIST*!!!  :verymad:".

:no:

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mgk920 on March 19, 2020, 03:59:55 AM
I wonder how long it will be, especially here in Wisconsin, before we start seeing a redux of the super-private illegal 'Speakeasy' bars that were commonplace 90-95 years ago, when beverage alcohol was unconstitutional?

"Knock twice and ask for Gus."

:hmmm:

:popcorn:

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 19, 2020, 04:07:52 AM
The University of Washington has announced that Spring Quarter (late March to early June) will take place entirely online:

https://www.washington.edu/coronavirus/2020/03/18/uw-spring-quarter-classes-will-be-held-remotely-message-to-students/

This is my final quarter prior to graduation. Needless to say, not exactly the way I imagined going out. Really hoping that a proper graduation won't be cancelled.

I've heard from my friends that other area schools will also be online-only (Tacoma Community College among them), but I cannot confirm that at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: amroad17 on March 19, 2020, 06:12:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Does that make Kenton County a second world county?  :-D
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kevinb1994 on March 19, 2020, 06:17:41 AM
Quote from: amroad17 on March 19, 2020, 06:12:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Does that make Kenton County a second world county?  :-D
Wawt the uck are yaw tawkin' 'bawt?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Brandon on March 19, 2020, 06:42:54 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 18, 2020, 10:11:47 PM
I think we are to the point where it might be a good idea to take a chill and remind ourselves that things will be OK, and talk about some of the road-related impacts.

I'll second the chilling out.  The virus appears to have run its course where it started, with no new reported Wuhan cases, infecting a mere 3% of the total population in a very tightly packed city (tighter than even NYC).  I'm also more than a little sick of the comparisons to Italy, a county whose health wasn't all that great before the virus, has a different demography than the US (much older, about 1/4 of the population is over 60), and has a culture conducive to spreading the virus readily, i.e. holding a conversation 2 inches from someone's face and the need to hug/kiss when greeting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 19, 2020, 07:06:57 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 19, 2020, 06:42:54 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 18, 2020, 10:11:47 PM
I think we are to the point where it might be a good idea to take a chill and remind ourselves that things will be OK, and talk about some of the road-related impacts.

I'll second the chilling out.  The virus appears to have run its course where it started, with no new reported Wuhan cases, infecting a mere 3% of the total population in a very tightly packed city (tighter than even NYC).  I'm also more than a little sick of the comparisons to Italy, a county whose health wasn't all that great before the virus, has a different demography than the US (much older, about 1/4 of the population is over 60), and has a culture conducive to spreading the virus readily, i.e. holding a conversation 2 inches from someone's face and the need to hug/kiss when greeting.

I thought people also tried claiming that with Italy's wonderful free-healthcare system, they wouldn't get it so bad.

I'm also wondering what "No new cases" means.  Remember...this is the country that tried denying the disease in the first place.

Reading this paper, https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200319/coronavirus-wuhan-reports-no-new-cases-offering-hope-to-world , I found the two paragraphs to be interesting...

QuoteWuhan was where the outbreak first took hold and thousands once lay sick or dying in hurriedly constructed hospitals. But Chinese authorities said Thursday that all 34 new cases recorded over the previous day had been imported from abroad.

QuoteWuhan has been under a strict lockdown since January...The lockdown will be lifted there only if no additional cases have been reported for two consecutive weeks.

So - They went thru this for over 2 months.  The US is barely going on 2 weeks with shutdowns and closures.  We have a long ways to go, folks, and it's probably going to get worse before it gets better...
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 19, 2020, 07:33:43 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 19, 2020, 12:58:15 AM
That HAN (which has no signature, BTW, thus opening the possibility that it was approved by a committee or working group rather than an individual) is dated February 1, 2020.  Were we aware at the time that asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmission was possible?  I myself was not, until I read a MedicineNet article (https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228343) dated February 20 that was based on research (involving German evacuees from Hubei province) published (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001899) in the New England Journal of Medicine on February 18.
This HAN put 100% faith on first line screening - which should have been one of cheese slices, if you know what that means.
As for committee.. This is what I mean by liberal application of capital punishment.



This is a problem of testing strategy and, as such, is separate from the quality control problems (the third reagent leading to inconclusive results) that held up testing until the CDC agreed that tests using just the first two elements could be accepted as valid.  That, in turn, is separate from the regulatory issues that prevented foreign tests from being used.  There is apparently another layer of potential problems that arise from labs varying in their ability to enforce the process control that is required for reliable results, and that has had implications for certifying labs to test.
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 19, 2020, 12:58:15 AM
I certainly agree that we need a full postmortem (along the lines of the 9/11 Commission and the Challenger and Columbia inquiries) on what went wrong with testing at a time when the US had just dozens of confirmed cases and containment without mass disruption was still an option.  But fairness requires us to hold the CDC scientists accountable on the basis of the information they had in hand when they had to make the critical decisions.  One aspect of the testing mess I have not been able to find much information about is the reliability of the foreign tests as compared to the CDC's.  I have read that in an early phase in their crisis, the Chinese were making do with tests that yielded a 50% false negative rate, and current tests are generically described as having a 10% false negative rate because throat and nose swabs don't always capture what the virus is doing in the bottom of the lungs.
Who was held personally responsible for any of those situations and suffered more than a job change?

I wouldn't put it on Trump. If anything, his attempts to bring EPA to reason were considered as nothing short of a crime against humanity. If the existing government structure survives the crisis, there has to be a very far-reaching postmortem with conclusions extended far beyond affected agencies. See above for some details.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wanderer2575 on March 19, 2020, 09:03:37 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/nqlRFg6.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hotdogPi on March 19, 2020, 09:03:45 AM
Early yesterday, all 17 recovered cases went away. Now, there is an area of the US outside any particular state with 1 total case and 106 recovered cases, which means that there are -105 active cases there (which is said explicitly, not just implied).

Before that, Suriname and Curaçao were in the Arabian Sea, and Fench (sic) Guiana had a different number of cases from French Guiana, both of which have now been fixed.




Interestingly, Canada has approximately 1/10 the number of cases as the US and approximately 1/10 the total population. It's been this way the entire time. Are they having problems with testing kits, too, or do they legitimately have fewer cases?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 19, 2020, 09:10:19 AM
Quote from: DJStephens on March 18, 2020, 10:44:16 PM
  Bill Richardson's "rail runner" is apparently shut down until at least April 6th.

New Mexico's commuter rail service, for those who do not know.

https://www.riometro.org/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=200

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 19, 2020, 10:34:34 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.

What was so 3rd world about Campbell County before the crisis?

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 19, 2020, 11:12:02 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:56:09 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Campbell is my first name. I guess I should try harder.

So should this Facebook exec, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Brown_(journalist)  Actually Campbell is her second (of two) middle names (IOW a four-namer).  I guess she's gone by Campbell all her life.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: ixnay on March 19, 2020, 11:18:53 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 19, 2020, 12:57:12 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Is that where they make Campbell's Soup?

Campbell County, KY is named for a John Campbell.  Campbell Soup has no plants there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_County,_Kentucky

Campbell Soup Company is based in Camden County, New Jersey and was founded by Joseph A. Campbell.  Its nearest plant to Campbell County, KY is in outside Toledo, OH (don't know what products are made there).  Campbell's used to have a plant in Chestertown, MD where chicken was processed for Campbell's Chicken Noodle Soup which I grew up on (afaik no broths were made there).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Soup_Company

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 19, 2020, 11:20:44 AM
Quote from: ixnay on March 19, 2020, 10:34:34 AM
What was so 3rd world about Campbell County before the crisis?

Our sanitation, schools, and political corruption were absolutely terrible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kurumi on March 19, 2020, 12:46:45 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:56:09 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 18, 2020, 11:51:50 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 18, 2020, 11:50:28 PM
Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.
Campbell is my first name. I guess I should try harder.

tbh I always assumed "Plutonic Panda" was an Ubuntu version :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 19, 2020, 01:36:29 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 19, 2020, 09:03:45 AM
Early yesterday, all 17 recovered cases went away. Now, there is an area of the US outside any particular state with 1 total case and 106 recovered cases, which means that there are -105 active cases there (which is said explicitly, not just implied).

Before that, Suriname and Curaçao were in the Arabian Sea, and Fench (sic) Guiana had a different number of cases from French Guiana, both of which have now been fixed.
Huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Bruce on March 19, 2020, 01:37:50 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on March 19, 2020, 03:48:10 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 18, 2020, 10:02:03 PM
In order to have had stopped this virus from spreading, the borders to the United States would have had to been shut down back in January. No one would have ever allowed that and would have crucified anyone who suggested it.

IIRC, the Feds did that at that time WRT passenger airline flights from much or all of China and perhaps one or two other places in eastern Asia.  Yes, 'usual suspects' were reaming Donald Trump out for that for being an "anti-Asian *RACIST*!!!  :verymad:".

:no:

Mike

It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

Shutting the border in January would have been reasonable it if applied to all countries with cases. By that time, Italy and Iran were having their first signs of an outbreak, so they would have been included if the response was intended to contain the virus rather than spread more anti-Asian sentiment (which is quite pervasive in American society).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: sprjus4 on March 19, 2020, 01:46:33 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 19, 2020, 01:37:50 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on March 19, 2020, 03:48:10 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 18, 2020, 10:02:03 PM
In order to have had stopped this virus from spreading, the borders to the United States would have had to been shut down back in January. No one would have ever allowed that and would have crucified anyone who suggested it.

IIRC, the Feds did that at that time WRT passenger airline flights from much or all of China and perhaps one or two other places in eastern Asia.  Yes, 'usual suspects' were reaming Donald Trump out for that for being an "anti-Asian *RACIST*!!!  :verymad:".

:no:

Mike

It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

Shutting the border in January would have been reasonable it if applied to all countries with cases. By that time, Italy and Iran were having their first signs of an outbreak, so they would have been included if the response was intended to contain the virus rather than spread more anti-Asian sentiment (which is quite pervasive in American society).
:spin: :spin: :spin:

Virus starts in China and was spreading quickly throughout, so in response he restricts access in an effort to reduce the spread of the virus. But since he didn't restrict access immediately to another area that just began it's growth, he's a racist  :-o :no: This definitely deserves impeachment, maybe even prison.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 19, 2020, 01:49:03 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 19, 2020, 09:03:45 AMEarly yesterday, all 17 recovered cases went away. Now, there is an area of the US outside any particular state with 1 total case and 106 recovered cases, which means that there are -105 active cases there (which is said explicitly, not just implied).

You are talking about the JHU dashboard?  It's been flaky for a while--numbers given don't match numbers announced by state health departments, Kansas has one case with location marked as "US, US" (the dot appears within Kansas' borders presumably because it is in the middle of the lower 48), Alaska was shown without cases long after it had its first case, Italian numbers stayed out of date for almost 24 hours some days, etc.

Quote from: 1 on March 19, 2020, 09:03:45 AMInterestingly, Canada has approximately 1/10 the number of cases as the US and approximately 1/10 the total population. It's been this way the entire time. Are they having problems with testing kits, too, or do they legitimately have fewer cases?

My next question would be what testing criteria the Canadian authorities are applying and how these differ from the ones used by Italy (where testing was much more extensive but cases were growing without control before the lockdown) and South Korea (more testing even than Italy, but much better control).
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: J N Winkler on March 19, 2020, 01:59:34 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 19, 2020, 07:33:43 AMThis HAN put 100% faith on first line screening - which should have been one of cheese slices, if you know what that means.

You are talking about the Swiss-cheese theory of accident causation?  Yes.  The decision to proceed as if there was no asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread absolutely should be part of any postmortem.

Quote from: kalvado on March 19, 2020, 07:33:43 AMWho was held personally responsible for any of those situations and suffered more than a job change?

No one.  Even if you are an engineer and sign off on a structural detail that eventually results in a balcony collapse that kills over a hundred people, you can carry on with multiple PE licenses, only the one effective in the state where the collapse occurred being voided.

I agree that immunity creates opportunities for moral hazard.  This is a fundamental problem that spans many professions, both in and out of government, and is part of the reason sovereign immunity is now qualified and we now have tort claims legislation.   But I don't think we have found a good solution yet.  Litigation really isn't one because it is high-friction and full of unintended consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on March 19, 2020, 02:11:58 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 19, 2020, 01:59:34 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 19, 2020, 07:33:43 AMThis HAN put 100% faith on first line screening - which should have been one of cheese slices, if you know what that means.

You are talking about the Swiss-cheese theory of accident causation?  Yes.  The decision to proceed as if there was no asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread absolutely should be part of any postmortem.
even without pre-simptomatic spread, assuming a person who unboarded healthy would run to ER with very early symptoms of common cold is a bit strange. Mild infection in many people was already documented.


Quote from: J N Winkler on March 19, 2020, 01:59:34 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 19, 2020, 07:33:43 AMWho was held personally responsible for any of those situations and suffered more than a job change?

No one.  Even if you are an engineer and sign off on a structural detail that eventually results in a balcony collapse that kills over a hundred people, you can carry on with multiple PE licenses, only the one effective in the state where the collapse occurred being voided.

I agree that immunity creates opportunities for moral hazard.  This is a fundamental problem that spans many professions, both in and out of government, and is part of the reason sovereign immunity is now qualified and we now have tort claims legislation.   But I don't think we have found a good solution yet.  Litigation really isn't one because it is high-friction and full of unintended consequences.
Would be a good precedent to set.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: hbelkins on March 19, 2020, 03:25:04 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 19, 2020, 01:37:50 PM
It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

:-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Note to SMF developers: You need to add a :poop: emoji.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 19, 2020, 03:30:57 PM
NC has announced it's first community spread case.

http://www.wilsontimes.com/stories/wilson-has-first-case-of-community-spread-in-nc,204162 (http://www.wilsontimes.com/stories/wilson-has-first-case-of-community-spread-in-nc,204162)

Also, Bridgestone and Goodyear are temporarily shutting down their tire plants.

https://www.bridgestoneamericas.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2020/bridgestone-americas-announces-temporary-phased-shutdown-of-manu (https://www.bridgestoneamericas.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2020/bridgestone-americas-announces-temporary-phased-shutdown-of-manu)

https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/20200318/goodyear-halts-tire-production-in-americas-europe (https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/20200318/goodyear-halts-tire-production-in-americas-europe)
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Rothman on March 19, 2020, 04:29:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 19, 2020, 03:25:04 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 19, 2020, 01:37:50 PM
It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

:-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Note to SMF developers: You need to add a :poop: emoji.
Because of your response?
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: jakeroot on March 19, 2020, 05:10:25 PM
This thread is completely fucked if we keep getting into politics. Which is necessarily part of controlling a viral outbreak, but we ought to be a bit more careful!
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bing101 on March 19, 2020, 10:30:17 PM
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-stay-home/ (https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-stay-home/)

Update California has issued a statewide shelter in place order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bandit957 on March 19, 2020, 10:34:41 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 19, 2020, 10:30:17 PM
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-stay-home/ (https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-stay-home/)

Update California has issued a statewide shelter in place order.

Good luck trying to keep 40 million people locked in their homes for weeks on end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wxfree on March 19, 2020, 11:13:03 PM
In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 19, 2020, 11:18:00 PM
Grabbed an 18 pack of beer and set up a couple additions to my home gym.  I'm still looking for the official order here in California but I know it doesn't prohibit outdoor activity.  To that end I'm still trying to see the extent of outdoor activity that can be had.  Some snow shoe hiking up in the Sierras might be a good way to get off grid for a day or two. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 19, 2020, 11:26:31 PM
Re. CA stay-at-home order:It is not a restriction on freedom of movement.  Its basically the same as what other states have been doing; business closed and no large gatherings.  At no time has it been implied that streets will be closed to vehicluar traffic or people cannot simply go out in public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: UnumProvident101 on March 19, 2020, 11:29:28 PM
in Chattanooga, TN the mayor of my hometown issued an executive order suspending dine-in services and that includes gyms and bars until further notice
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 19, 2020, 11:37:25 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 19, 2020, 11:26:31 PM
Re. CA stay-at-home order:It is not a restriction on freedom of movement.  Its basically the same as what other states have been doing; business closed and no large gatherings.  At no time has it been implied that streets will be closed to vehicluar traffic or people cannot simply go out in public.

That's what it seems, and to that extent much of the state has been under similar orders already.  Nonetheless it doesn't appear the official order has been published online yet, at least I haven't found it on the State webpage.

To that end the only one of the nine National Parks that has raised questions about visitation for hiking purposes so far has been Pinnacles:

https://www.nps.gov/pinn/index.htm
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 19, 2020, 11:47:39 PM
Likely when the current California legislative order is published it will probably be posted on this webpage:

https://covid19.ca.gov/

Edit:  The order was posted but it is very vague and not really specific about much of anything aside from encouraging people to stay home.  There is a short list of essential businesses and non-essential businesses.  To that end much of what the order entails seems to be at the moment a massive unclear gray area.  A lot of specific questions people are asking apparently are answered in news stories but I'm usually really hesitant to rely on those without some sort of official Legislative or notice from someone in the State.  For the moment I haven't really seen much change at all but it is only 6:13 AM. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 20, 2020, 09:39:22 AM
Arkansas has ordered closed all dine-in facilities. For now, they can still offer carry-out or delivery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mgk920 on March 20, 2020, 10:20:55 AM
Quote from: wxfree on March 19, 2020, 11:13:03 PM
In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze

Bars refilling growlers is still perfectly fine for carryout here in Wisconsin.

:nod:

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on March 20, 2020, 10:31:54 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 19, 2020, 11:26:31 PM
Re. CA stay-at-home order:It is not a restriction on freedom of movement.  Its basically the same as what other states have been doing; business closed and no large gatherings.  At no time has it been implied that streets will be closed to vehicluar traffic or people cannot simply go out in public.

It took CA a long time to do this statewide (after most large cities in the state had already put in place similar measures).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 20, 2020, 10:32:54 AM
Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 20, 2020, 11:23:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 20, 2020, 10:32:54 AM
Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.

I've always had this saying
If you vote for people who say they don't believe government works, you don't get to act surprised when in fact government doesn't work.
:-D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 20, 2020, 11:24:13 AM
Quote from: kwellada on March 20, 2020, 11:23:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 20, 2020, 10:32:54 AM
Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.

I've always had this saying
If you vote for people who say they don't believe government works, you don't get to act surprised when in fact government doesn't work.
:-D
Pretty much any politician.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: LM117 on March 20, 2020, 11:44:04 AM
Quote from: wxfree on March 19, 2020, 11:13:03 PM
In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze

VA is also allowing it.

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/114-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-in-va-northam-asks-restaurants-to-abide-by-people-limit (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/114-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-in-va-northam-asks-restaurants-to-abide-by-people-limit)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 20, 2020, 12:28:56 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 20, 2020, 10:32:54 AM
Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

-back on topic-

Arkansas is allowing restaurants to sell beer & wine for off-premises consumption for 30 days.
https://katv.com/news/local/push-made-in-arkansas-to-sell-mixed-drinks-other-alcohol-for-off-site-consumption
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 20, 2020, 01:27:24 PM
Yesterday, I was directed to begin telecommuting. I did not ask for it and in fact preferred not to. It does save me 30 miles/45 minutes one-way to work, and the resulting gas use and vehicle wear. Much of the day has been spent corresponding with co-workers and then I'll have to tackle getting VPN access, which is going to entail backing up my Mac (I haven't done a Time Machine backup in a couple of weeks), transferring that backup to an external drive that has El Capitan installed (I'm still using 10.6 because it's the last OS that runs my full version of Adobe CS 2), and then booting from that external drive and installing the requisite VPN and security software.

I'll still be going to the office at least one day a week, probably two or three days depending on what's going on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 20, 2020, 03:01:34 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on March 20, 2020, 10:20:55 AM
Quote from: wxfree on March 19, 2020, 11:13:03 PM
In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze

Bars refilling growlers is still perfectly fine for carryout here in Wisconsin.

:nod:

Mike

Port City in Alexandria will sell beer to-go in their parking lot and can now deliver beer within a 10-mile radius, but they said for sanitary reasons they will not refill customers' growlers–you either have to buy a new growler, crowler(s), a six-pack, or a case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 04:24:55 PM
will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 04:32:07 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 04:24:55 PM
will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?
Well..
Quote from: kalvado on March 12, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 11:00:12 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 12:26:50 AMExpect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.
OK, first milestone - just past 1500 in US. by "next week" I meant more like weekend counts... Not thrilled with my guess, would greatly prefer if it was other way.
We passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.
There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jmd41280 on March 20, 2020, 04:32:25 PM
In PA, Gov. Wolf ordered all nonessential/non-life-sustaining businesses to close as of last night. Like in many other states, restaurants are open for take-out/delivery but not eating in. Most other businesses, aside from pharmacies, physician's offices, grocery stores, and gas stations, are closed.

Being that I work in a behavioral health clinic, my office remained open (as we are considered essential) and we are seeing clients (with precautions, of course, including social distancing, pre-screening for Covid-19 risk, and frequent disinfecting). Additionally, any counselor or other staff that has traveled out of the area has to be screened by HR before returning to work.

With that being said, we're now allowed to conduct counseling sessions over the phone for any client that is ill, high-risk for severe complications if they were to get Covid-19, or does not feel comfortable coming into the clinic for an in-person session. Additionally, anyone ill and self-quarantining can conduct phone sessions from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 04:48:16 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 04:32:07 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 04:24:55 PM
will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?
Well..
Quote from: kalvado on March 12, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 11:00:12 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 12:26:50 AMExpect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.
OK, first milestone - just past 1500 in US. by "next week" I meant more like weekend counts... Not thrilled with my guess, would greatly prefer if it was other way.
We passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.
There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01
100 million?! That's about 1/3 of the US population! But yeah, we should slow down. I graduate this year and I don't want to miss it! So the bad taste shortages prolly mean it's fake.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We are already approaching 20,000. And we could even surpass Italy!

If you look at the states, the majority of it is happening in New York. Washington state suddenly slowed down and that's a good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 20, 2020, 04:52:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 04:32:07 PMWe passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.  There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01

If the current rate holds, deaths are likely to become the really interesting statistic--100 million cases translates to thousands (potentially tens of thousands) of deaths per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 20, 2020, 04:53:47 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 04:48:16 PM
If you look at the states, the majority of it is happening in New York. Washington state suddenly slowed down and that's a good thing.

And Washington state didn't have to issue huge lockdowns. The media is hounding the governor about this and demanding lockdowns, but I don't think it's locked down yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on March 20, 2020, 05:11:53 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 04:24:55 PM
will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?

I sincerely doubt it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 05:53:38 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 20, 2020, 04:52:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 04:32:07 PMWe passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.  There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01

If the current rate holds, deaths are likely to become the really interesting statistic--100 million cases translates to thousands (potentially tens of thousands) of deaths per day.

Interetingly enough, emerging answer seems to be "so what? It is what it isl"

US has a death rate of 0.9% annually, expected to go up to 1.05 as baby boomers expire. Say 3 million people a year, just shy of 10k/day. Double that for a year? So it is what it is.

Current predictions are that most people will get sick, sooner or later. 50% optimistically, 90% pessemistically. herd immunity will kick in after that.
If mortality rate would be 2% (realistic, as some treatment strategies may emerge even without proper cure), we're talking 2 years worth of deaths no matter what - so 3x death rate for 12 months and then back to normal rate, even maybe reduced as a lot of infirm people would die early.

Quarantine buys time in this case - not anything else. Weeks, maybe months of time - not years. So until something REALLY drastic happens within 2 months - quarantine is not helping. There may be some suppression strategies - but I don't see them deployed, and that should have started last week. But deer in headlights is the symbol of the situation.

So, my prediction - quarantine mostly lifted in 3-6 weeks, some social distancing enforced - severely cut international travel, lockout for 65+ olds. And it is what it is and let it be, some tent hospitals and mass graves may be involved, we cannot abandon our economy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
And a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.
But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:29:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 06:29:38 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...

My wife volunteered for community work rather than staying at home.  My Cousin did the same thing out in Michigan and is being monitored presently.  One thing I can definitely say about them both is they sincerely care about helping people even if that puts them in harms way.  For what it's worth I can say that I have any objection to my wife doing what she thinks is right.  To that end, I don't get a free pass on being out of public exposure either and it has gotten me exposed to serious stuff in the past.  We did tell immediate family that maybe visiting us isn't the best idea for awhile.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:33:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:29:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.

Check what you wrote again. :spin:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 20, 2020, 07:07:59 PM
Washington's slowdown in the number of confirmed cases does not mean that the virus isn't spreading as far. We've only tested 14,000 people as of yesterday, which is only a fraction of the number needed to get a good read on how far it's spread.

The Seattle area has several distinct strains that have been moving around the community since January, according to the mapping work done by the Seattle Flu Study. That means hundreds of undetected cases from then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 20, 2020, 07:15:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PMAnd a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are tested where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.

But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.

I think we are dealing with a lag here.  Italy tested more extensively than the US (including NY?) from the beginning, with fewer interruptions due to self-inflicted constraints on testing, and it is only in the last few days that deaths have really taken off.  I think that even with hundreds or thousands of apparently mild cases diluting the really serious ones, NY has the potential for its case fatality ratio to catch up with that of the rest of the US or even China (4%) if it does not overrun ICU bed or ventilator capacity.  If either is overrun, deaths will climb even faster (it will be a running-into-the-wall effect) and might correspond to rates seen with the 1918 flu.

I see what you mean by "It is what it is" and the deer-in-the-headlights effect, and it is a stylized fact that leadership at the time and for generations afterward acted as if they had total amnesia about the flu in 1918, but I'd think a coronavirus death toll equal to several multiples of normal population turnover would have long-lasting reverberations.  (The US had 106 million people by the 1920 census, and the 1918 flu killed 675,000, so it killed maybe 0.6%-0.7% of the 1918 population.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:29:30 PM
Staff, please lock this. This is going to cause mass panic

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on March 20, 2020, 07:31:25 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:29:30 PM
Staff, please lock this. This is going to cause mass panic

LGL322DL

COVID-19 doesn't spread via forum posts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:32:39 PM
Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:37:36 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 20, 2020, 07:31:25 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:29:30 PM
Staff, please lock this. This is going to cause mass panic

LGL322DL

COVID-19 doesn't spread via forum posts.

Nor does some of the more outlandish thoughts on "what to do"  that have sprung from it.  If we were going to lock the thread something like suggesting executions would have been more appropriate.  Nobody on here is an expert one way or the other as far as I can tell.  If news is worrisome probably the best advice anyone can give is to ignore it and decide what you'll do or think for yourself.   

Apparently the National Parks in California are shuttering at request of the State.  It looks like right now that probably only is a California-only thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on March 20, 2020, 07:38:48 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:32:39 PM
Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL

I think you need a 14-day quarantine from this thread. You're getting a bit too worked up over a lot of speculation with some facts mixed in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 20, 2020, 07:49:30 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic
Second that

LGL322DL
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:50:12 PM
On a less grim note, here is a video on what people used to do before toilet paper became a thing:



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 07:50:47 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:32:39 PM
Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL
Add Honorable Gavin Newsom, Governor of State of California to the list as number 3.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf
He expects 56% of CA population to be infected within 8 weeks - that is 25 million people.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on March 20, 2020, 07:54:59 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 20, 2020, 07:15:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PMAnd a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are tested where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.

But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.

I think we are dealing with a lag here.  Italy tested more extensively than the US (including NY?) from the beginning, with fewer interruptions due to self-inflicted constraints on testing, and it is only in the last few days that deaths have really taken off.  I think that even with hundreds or thousands of apparently mild cases diluting the really serious ones, NY has the potential for its case fatality ratio to catch up with that of the rest of the US or even China (4%) if it does not overrun ICU bed or ventilator capacity.  If either is overrun, deaths will climb even faster (it will be a running-into-the-wall effect) and might correspond to rates seen with the 1918 flu.

I see what you mean by "It is what it is" and the deer-in-the-headlights effect, and it is a stylized fact that leadership at the time and for generations afterward acted as if they had total amnesia about the flu in 1918, but I'd think a coronavirus death toll equal to several multiples of normal population turnover would have long-lasting reverberations.  (The US had 106 million people by the 1920 census, and the 1918 flu killed 675,000, so it killed maybe 0.6%-0.7% of the 1918 population.)

The only counter to that is that there are other jurisdictions were the death toll hasn't, for whatever reason, spiked the same way it has in Italy.

Japan and South Korea have managed their infections pretty well, and both haven't seen the death toll that we are seeing in other locations.  Germany also has very few deaths for it's amount of infections as well.  It's certainly possible that the cases will in time get more severe in Germany, but their early prognosis is somewhat positive.

I'm just saying all of this because there is a lot of unknown about this disease at this point.  It might affect different populations differently for a variety of different reasons.  Or it might not, we're just going to have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 07:50:47 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:32:39 PM
Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL
Add Honorable Gavin Newsom, Governor of State of California to the list as number 3.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf
He expects 56% of CA population to be infected within 8 weeks - that is 25 million people.

Yet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  I'm not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.   

Regarding 1918, isn't that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I don't seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.  To that end, one might actual attempts to intervene would yield far better results by default.  Besides, the Spanish Flu was a follow up to World War I and largely distributed quickly because it infected so many in the literal trenches of war. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 08:07:51 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on March 20, 2020, 07:54:59 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 20, 2020, 07:15:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PMAnd a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are tested where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.

But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.

I think we are dealing with a lag here.  Italy tested more extensively than the US (including NY?) from the beginning, with fewer interruptions due to self-inflicted constraints on testing, and it is only in the last few days that deaths have really taken off.  I think that even with hundreds or thousands of apparently mild cases diluting the really serious ones, NY has the potential for its case fatality ratio to catch up with that of the rest of the US or even China (4%) if it does not overrun ICU bed or ventilator capacity.  If either is overrun, deaths will climb even faster (it will be a running-into-the-wall effect) and might correspond to rates seen with the 1918 flu.

I see what you mean by "It is what it is" and the deer-in-the-headlights effect, and it is a stylized fact that leadership at the time and for generations afterward acted as if they had total amnesia about the flu in 1918, but I'd think a coronavirus death toll equal to several multiples of normal population turnover would have long-lasting reverberations.  (The US had 106 million people by the 1920 census, and the 1918 flu killed 675,000, so it killed maybe 0.6%-0.7% of the 1918 population.)

The only counter to that is that there are other jurisdictions were the death toll hasn't, for whatever reason, spiked the same way it has in Italy.

Japan and South Korea have managed their infections pretty well, and both haven't seen the death toll that we are seeing in other locations.  Germany also has very few deaths for it's amount of infections as well.  It's certainly possible that the cases will in time get more severe in Germany, but their early prognosis is somewhat positive.

I'm just saying all of this because there is a lot of unknown about this disease at this point.  It might affect different populations differently for a variety of different reasons.  Or it might not, we're just going to have to wait and see.
There is certainly a possibility and hope that a milder strain of the virus would take over. This is actually Darwin's theory in action, as severe cases get isolated and treated while milder cases suffer through the disease a home - and spread further. We may end up, as the president promised, a season of very bad flu. Keep yuyr fingers crossed and pray hard.
I don't know what goes on in Germany and Japan. I know someone who wholeheartedly believes Japan hides their caseload to avoid Olympics cancellation (I don't think Olympics has a chance at this point). So far, Germany has a mix of its own strand and Switzerland-Netherlands strand. Second one doesn't seem much milder than average.
I still assume Germany is doing agressive testing. Korea certainly did testing and forensic tracing - and would be in a much better state if ONE person had a little more brains in her head.

PS. I still maintain that there are government employees in this situation who don't deserve any mercy. And capital punishment is still constitutional in US, you know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 20, 2020, 08:10:55 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:33:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:29:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are
I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.
Check what you wrote again. :spin:

He missed it, and so did I until just now.  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 08:14:19 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 20, 2020, 08:10:55 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:33:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:29:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 06:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are
I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.
Check what you wrote again. :spin:

He missed it, and so did I until just now.  :D
I actually missed it and asked for an explanation - so I did even worse! :pan:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: noelbotevera on March 20, 2020, 08:21:34 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
hey guys remember when half the world died to a couple of rats
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on March 20, 2020, 08:27:57 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 08:07:51 PM
There is certainly a possibility and hope that a milder strain of the virus would take over. This is actually Darwin's theory in action, as severe cases get isolated and treated while milder cases suffer through the disease a home - and spread further. We may end up, as the president promised, a season of very bad flu. Keep yuyr fingers crossed and pray hard.
I don't know what goes on in Germany and Japan. I know someone who wholeheartedly believes Japan hides their caseload to avoid Olympics cancellation (I don't think Olympics has a chance at this point). So far, Germany has a mix of its own strand and Switzerland-Netherlands strand. Second one doesn't seem much milder than average.
I still assume Germany is doing agressive testing. Korea certainly did testing and forensic tracing - and would be in a much better state if ONE person had a little more brains in her head.

PS. I still maintain that there are government employees in this situation who don't deserve any mercy. And capital punishment is still constitutional in US, you know.

The Japan theory is interesting -- I've read that in other places, but I've also read that if the severity was being downplayed by their lack of testing, severe cases would still be showing up in their hospitals right now, which as far as I know, hasn't happened yet en masse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 20, 2020, 08:30:42 PM
Here in Western New York, we're in a really weird spot: Almost 50% (!) of all reported US cases are in New York state.
Yet there are 10 different states (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, PA, MD, DE) that are closer to New York City than I am right now. That's the way it always has been, of course, but it feels especially jarring right now, and it's something those looking at the statewide numbers should keep in mind: the 7,845 reported cases are incredibly concentrated downstate, while the numbers for the rest of state are more in line with what we're seeing elsewhere in the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 08:32:52 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 20, 2020, 08:21:34 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
hey guys remember when half the world died to a couple of rats

That would be pretty impressive if you managed to live this long after the 1300s.  An almost total lack of sanitation in Europe surely did just as much to spread disease as those initial rats did. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 08:43:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 08:32:52 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 20, 2020, 08:21:34 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
hey guys remember when half the world died to a couple of rats

That would be pretty impressive if you managed to live this long after the 1300s.  An almost total lack of sanitation in Europe surely did just as much to spread disease as those initial rats did.
I heard quite similar tune about China when Wuhan was on lockdown - and look how it worked...
As for sanitation... Maybe 200-300 years from now the tune would be "an almost total lack of respiratory sanitation in 21st century surely did ... "
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ErmineNotyours on March 20, 2020, 08:54:27 PM
Washington Governor Jay Inslee using traffic data to demonstrate a lack of social distancing.  I wonder if that takes into account the lack of reduction in truck traffic.  Not many trucks would take the HOT lane, so there's that.  Tomorrow I plan on driving to the Nisqually Wildlife Refuge, but I don't plan on going near any person.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 10:23:38 PM
New York state is on lockdown - and I think it's time to lock this thread too. GOOD!

The coronavirus discussion seems kind of scary and it gets old fast - I'm going back to roads.

EDIT: not saying it should be locked now, but if it turns into a debate or flaming thread or devolves into personal attacks, that's when it does need to be locked. Just saying.

-Tolbs
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 20, 2020, 10:49:22 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 10:23:38 PM
New York state is on lockdown - and I think it's time to lock this thread too. GOOD!

The coronavirus discussion seems kind of scary and it gets old fast - I'm going back to roads.

EDIT: not saying it should be locked now, but if it turns into a debate or flaming thread or devolves into personal attacks, that's when it does need to be locked. Just saying.

-Tolbs
Problem is that this is real. It is an event of decade, if not of the century. it's not something minor which will resolve itself somehow. It will affect most of us. Think 9/11 as a scalebar.
Actually 9/11 is a minor thing in comparison to what is going on. There are already more dead and more economic damage than 9/11 did, and worst is still to come.
Now back to the roads while they are still open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 20, 2020, 11:23:06 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 10:23:38 PM
New York state is on lockdown - and I think it's time to lock this thread too. GOOD!

The coronavirus discussion seems kind of scary and it gets old fast - I'm going back to roads.


Apparently you don't get the concept of "off-topic"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 20, 2020, 11:57:32 PM
This is nowhere near as dull and repetitive as the DST threads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on March 21, 2020, 12:08:10 AM
THE END IS NEAR!

Or is that the beginning?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:19:17 AM
Quote from: wxfree on March 21, 2020, 12:08:10 AM
THE END IS NEAR!

Or is that the beginning?

I'm watching a documentary on the Swing Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on March 21, 2020, 12:38:01 AM
Quote from: The Washington Post
U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus
full story

QuoteThe surge in warnings coincided with a move by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 12:48:26 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PMYet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  I'm not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.

I suspect modeling was used that he did not understand himself and he had no-one present who did, or whom he cared to have try to explain when cameras were running.  However, an increase from 1006 cases now (per Wikipedia) to 25.5 million 56 days later is consistent with a 19.8% daily growth rate.  That is slightly lower than the average daily growth rate California has experienced since it entered the pattern of daily increase in case count on March 4.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PMRegarding 1918, isn't that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I don't seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.

The US response has been delayed and confounded by tactical errors that, in the context of exponential growth, have grave strategic implications.  I think there is a real possibility (as I understand Kalvado to be suggesting) that a share of those in charge are in despair, trying to control the damage instead of aiming for complete stop of spread as has been achieved in Hubei, and mounting a show of diligence to limit any political repercussions to themselves.  This is a dynamic that has been especially blatant in the UK with the "herd immunity" plan, which was a way of seeming to maintain control over the situation while allowing the disease to run its course.

While all US states are subject to the same unforgiving logic of exponential growth, the inland states are mostly better positioned to deal with it because their first cases are emerging late and they are proceeding to shutdown early.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:19:17 AMI'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on March 21, 2020, 12:59:33 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 12:48:26 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:19:17 AMI'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.

In "That 70s Show," when Eric is about to go to Africa, he's given a survival guide.  Kitty was understandably upset, and pointed out that there is no survival guide for Wisconsin.  This made me think about that, and of course there is a lot of biodiversity in tropical regions, and the more different kinds of life there are, the more kinds that might be dangerous.  Standing drunk and blindfolded and throwing an arrow to see where it lands, I wonder if it might have to do with mutations caused by high UV exposure over the eons, since that seems to have an effect on DNA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brian556 on March 21, 2020, 01:10:11 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 12:48:26 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PMYet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  I’m not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.

I suspect modeling was used that he did not understand himself and he had no-one present who did, or whom he cared to have try to explain when cameras were running.  However, an increase from 1006 cases now (per Wikipedia) to 25.5 million 56 days later is consistent with a 19.8% daily growth rate.  That is slightly lower than the average daily growth rate California has experienced since it entered the pattern of daily increase in case count on March 4.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PMRegarding 1918, isn’t that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I don’t seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.

The US response has been delayed and confounded by tactical errors that, in the context of exponential growth, have grave strategic implications.  I think there is a real possibility (as I understand Kalvado to be suggesting) that a share of those in charge are in despair, trying to control the damage instead of aiming for complete stop of spread as has been achieved in Hubei, and mounting a show of diligence to limit any political repercussions to themselves.  This is a dynamic that has been especially blatant in the UK with the "herd immunity" plan, which was a way of seeming to maintain control over the situation while allowing the disease to run its course.

While all US states are subject to the same unforgiving logic of exponential growth, the inland states are mostly better positioned to deal with it because their first cases are emerging late and they are proceeding to shutdown early.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:19:17 AMI'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.

I have read news reports that state that COVID-19 originated at at "wet market", which is where animals are bought and sold. If I remember correctly, that report also stated that some of the other diseases/viruses of the last 10-20 years also started at these. China needs to shut these down. When this is all said and done, I can imagine that the entire world will be extremely angry with China, and I'm wondering how and if they will try to penalize the Chinese government for this. Surely there will be tighter controls on travel to and from China after this is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 08:09:59 AM
Quote from: Brian556 on March 21, 2020, 01:10:11 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 12:48:26 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PMYet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  I'm not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.

I suspect modeling was used that he did not understand himself and he had no-one present who did, or whom he cared to have try to explain when cameras were running.  However, an increase from 1006 cases now (per Wikipedia) to 25.5 million 56 days later is consistent with a 19.8% daily growth rate.  That is slightly lower than the average daily growth rate California has experienced since it entered the pattern of daily increase in case count on March 4.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PMRegarding 1918, isn't that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I don't seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.

The US response has been delayed and confounded by tactical errors that, in the context of exponential growth, have grave strategic implications.  I think there is a real possibility (as I understand Kalvado to be suggesting) that a share of those in charge are in despair, trying to control the damage instead of aiming for complete stop of spread as has been achieved in Hubei, and mounting a show of diligence to limit any political repercussions to themselves.  This is a dynamic that has been especially blatant in the UK with the "herd immunity" plan, which was a way of seeming to maintain control over the situation while allowing the disease to run its course.

While all US states are subject to the same unforgiving logic of exponential growth, the inland states are mostly better positioned to deal with it because their first cases are emerging late and they are proceeding to shutdown early.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:19:17 AMI'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.

I have read news reports that state that COVID-19 originated at at "wet market", which is where animals are bought and sold. If I remember correctly, that report also stated that some of the other diseases/viruses of the last 10-20 years also started at these. China needs to shut these down. When this is all said and done, I can imagine that the entire world will be extremely angry with China, and I'm wondering how and if they will try to penalize the Chinese government for this. Surely there will be tighter controls on travel to and from China after this is over.
Presumed Western hygiene doesn't preclude deer hunting, not dangerous animal-trsnsmitted disease as rabies and leprocy.
It took decades to put TB under control. Some with drug resistant TB getting out of isolation was a big deal. We narrowly avoided Ebola runaway in US when infected person ended up traveling by plane.
Infection control is much more difficult than it sounds. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: rickmastfan67 on March 21, 2020, 08:36:39 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

If you want, I could create a new 'member' group that hides OT from you completely......  But then you would have to ask at a later time to be removed from that group to access this section again. (Creating the group is something I don't want to have to do.)

So, I'd just ignore the thread if you don't want to read it. :wave:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: JoePCool14 on March 21, 2020, 09:08:11 AM
Locking this topic would be ridiculous, considering how all the shutdowns or panic are affecting just about everyone everywhere in some fashion. If you don't want to deal with this topic...

Don't look at it!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 21, 2020, 10:38:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:50:12 PM
On a less grim note, here is a video on what people used to do before toilet paper became a thing:



Simon Whistler likely never leaves his home because of how many videos he churns out on his various channels. This guy makes a living out of natural social distancing! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ghYHZ on March 21, 2020, 10:40:41 AM
Do y'all have 'Tap to Pay' down there?

Went for groceries this morning......used self-checkout and just Tapped to Pay with my credit card.

Picked up a coffee at Tims and again just Tapped to Pay.

No Hockey on TV tonight but we've got beer and will probably order a pizza anyway. I'll tell the delivery guy what to add for a tip....then I'll just tap the device.

I haven't touched a bill or change in days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 21, 2020, 10:41:32 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on March 20, 2020, 08:54:27 PM
Washington Governor Jay Inslee using traffic data to demonstrate a lack of social distancing.  I wonder if that takes into account the lack of reduction in truck traffic.  Not many trucks would take the HOT lane, so there's that.  Tomorrow I plan on driving to the Nisqually Wildlife Refuge, but I don't plan on going near any person.

I haven't left the house for anything other than trips to the grocery store or pharmacy in a couple weeks.  But, given the spring weather, I do want see some nature to alleviate the boredom.  I've been plotting out potential destinations where I don't have to interact with any other people at all, so essentially anywhere that I can do the roundtrip on a single tank of gas and not need to find food at any point (I can bring ham sandwiches). 

So the point is that I can remain socially distant and still take my car somewhere.  (Maybe...the haze in the air is killing my allergies)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 10:51:30 AM
^^^

I have something like that in mind for myself revisiting some old remote wilderness roads like Bitterwater Road, Soda Lake Road, and Pozo Road in California.  I did a proof of concept two weeks ago on the Parkfield Grade and only ended up seeing 1 other person.  Very much socially distant with some very much enjoyed quiet driving.  I kind of suspect much of the San Andreas Fault will he highly valued this year by people in the know with early wet Spring this year. 

Quote from: kwellada on March 21, 2020, 10:38:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 20, 2020, 07:50:12 PM
On a less grim note, here is a video on what people used to do before toilet paper became a thing:



Simon Whistler likely never leaves his home because of how many videos he churns out on his various channels. This guy makes a living out of natural social distancing!

The guy really does have an absurd amount of channels and videos.  There was one I was watching at breakfast today about the legality of cannibalism. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 21, 2020, 11:17:12 AM
Quote from: ghYHZ on March 21, 2020, 10:40:41 AM
Do y'all have 'Tap to Pay' down there?

Went for groceries this morning......used self-checkout and just Tapped to Pay with my credit card.

Picked up a coffee at Tims and again just Tapped to Pay.

No Hockey on TV tonight but we've got beer and will probably order a pizza anyway. I'll tell the delivery guy what to add for a tip....then I'll just tap the device.

I haven't touched a bill or change in days.

Not everyone here has Tap to Pay, but Wally World has self checkouts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 11:41:08 AM
Speaking of beer, I'm actually surprised at how much of it is available.  I picked up a twelve pack of Reds and a six pack of Mike's the other day when I was shopping for weight sets.  I would have thought alcohol would have had a higher selling rate given people were essentially prepping to be inside. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on March 21, 2020, 11:50:35 AM
I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois. (http://dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ghYHZ on March 21, 2020, 12:05:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 11:41:08 AM
Speaking of beer, I'm actually surprised at how much of it is available.

Here you get you Beer, Liquor and Cannabis in the same Government store . There's lineups for all and they're restricting how many in the store for social distancing.......but no price gouging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 12:16:59 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on March 21, 2020, 11:50:35 AM
I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois. (http://dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus)
What is the point of the split?
I can see megalopolis shrinkage after all this, NYC and Bay area in particular, but that is a different story
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 12:16:59 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on March 21, 2020, 11:50:35 AM
I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois. (http://dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus)
What is the point of the split?
I can see megalopolis shrinkage after all this, NYC and Bay area in particular, but that is a different story

There definitely has been a huge advantage to be living in a rural area  through out what is actively going on.  In regards to the Bay Area that was reaching unsustainable level anyways giving the skyrocketing home prices and urban sprawl to San Juan County.  The major problem with expecting an urban exodus is that most of the desirable modern jobs that people want are still going to be in a major urban area. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 21, 2020, 12:30:23 PM
Gentrification had been ruining my city over the past few years. But a few days ago, I saw an article that said coronavirus has pretty much permanently killed the "renaissance" the city has had. Real estate values are going to plummet, but they were artificially high in the first place because of the price fixing by gentrification land pirates, so they need to come down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 12:46:36 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 12:16:59 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on March 21, 2020, 11:50:35 AM
I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois. (http://dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus)
What is the point of the split?
I can see megalopolis shrinkage after all this, NYC and Bay area in particular, but that is a different story

There definitely has been a huge advantage to be living in a rural area  through out what is actively going on.  In regards to the Bay Area that was reaching unsustainable level anyways giving the skyrocketing home prices and urban sprawl to San Juan County.  The major problem with expecting an urban exodus is that most of the desirable modern jobs that people want are still going to be in a major urban area.
If remote work wouldn't become the norm.
I can even see a half-way solution, when lots of remote offices operate as real offices (attendance, discipline, etc) with a lot of telecommute to headquarters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on March 21, 2020, 01:31:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 21, 2020, 12:30:23 PM
Gentrification had been ruining my city over the past few years. But a few days ago, I saw an article that said coronavirus has pretty much permanently killed the "renaissance" the city has had. Real estate values are going to plummet, but they were artificially high in the first place because of the price fixing by gentrification land pirates, so they need to come down.
I doubt it's going to get back to a level where I can afford to move back to the region again, though.

This pandemic is pissing me off anyhow! I want to get back to taking road trips again!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on March 21, 2020, 01:36:19 PM
Friend of mine started a trip to Texas a week ago, but then aborted the trip on the way down - turning back home - nothing was open.  He's in a 2 week quarantine regardless (ordered by work) after which he (like me) will be working from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 21, 2020, 01:37:57 PM
Quote from: ghYHZ on March 21, 2020, 10:40:41 AM
Do y'all have 'Tap to Pay' down there?

Went for groceries this morning......used self-checkout and just Tapped to Pay with my credit card.

Picked up a coffee at Tims and again just Tapped to Pay.

No Hockey on TV tonight but we've got beer and will probably order a pizza anyway. I'll tell the delivery guy what to add for a tip....then I'll just tap the device.

I haven't touched a bill or change in days.

The US definitely has tap to pay now. Canada was a few years ahead but the tap to pay terminals are everywhere now. Chips and tap to pay basically arrived at the same time. It's all I've used (when possible) for a couple years now with my Samsung phone.

Weirdly, Canadian stores still make me sign something after I tap to pay. Never understood why. Some difference between American and Canadian banks I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:49:59 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 12:46:36 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 12:16:59 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on March 21, 2020, 11:50:35 AM
I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois. (http://dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus)
What is the point of the split?
I can see megalopolis shrinkage after all this, NYC and Bay area in particular, but that is a different story

There definitely has been a huge advantage to be living in a rural area  through out what is actively going on.  In regards to the Bay Area that was reaching unsustainable level anyways giving the skyrocketing home prices and urban sprawl to San Juan County.  The major problem with expecting an urban exodus is that most of the desirable modern jobs that people want are still going to be in a major urban area.
If remote work wouldn't become the norm.
I can even see a half-way solution, when lots of remote offices operate as real offices (attendance, discipline, etc) with a lot of telecommute to headquarters.

Why that may work in a lot of the tech industry and much of white collar work places it will be tough sell for entrenched companies to make that a regular thing.  I used to work remotely all the time and it was just as effective as doing the same thing sitting in an office.  The trouble was that the mindset of being in the office constantly and more work being better somehow was too pervasive to keep at bay forever. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 21, 2020, 01:58:26 PM
My brother-in-law is a first responder and was tested earlier today because he's running a fever. He said the test is unpleasant–they stick a swab way up your nose, all the way back near the soft palate, and the reason for doing it that way is that you're far less likely to gag than if they swabbed your throat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 21, 2020, 02:02:18 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 21, 2020, 01:58:26 PM
My brother-in-law is a first responder and was tested earlier today because he's running a fever. He said the test is unpleasant–they stick a swab way up your nose, all the way back near the soft palate, and the reason for doing it that way is that you're far less likely to gag than if they swabbed your throat.

I had that test when I had whooping cough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 21, 2020, 02:38:29 PM
https://www.ktnv.com/news/gov-sisolak-making-coronavirus-announcement-at-1-30-p-m (https://www.ktnv.com/news/gov-sisolak-making-coronavirus-announcement-at-1-30-p-m)




Update Nevada has issued a "Non Essential Business Shutdown Order"


https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/clark-county-announces-course-of-action-for-emergency-declaration-enforcement/ (https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/clark-county-announces-course-of-action-for-emergency-declaration-enforcement/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Alps on March 21, 2020, 02:51:42 PM
New Jersey is now a shelter-in-place state and flights to major NY airports are about to be suspended due to lack of staff...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 21, 2020, 03:28:49 PM
https://www.wdsu.com/article/new-orleans-mayor-to-residents-stay-home-mandate-issued-because-of-covid-19/31826706#
Update New Orleans has issued a city wide shelter in place order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on March 21, 2020, 03:57:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.
That's a terrible idea
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 04:12:28 PM
Daily reminder that:

- Habeus corpus is still in effect
- Free movement is still allowed
- There has been no declaration of martial law.  Anywhere.  Period.

You will not get arrested for merely being out in public.  There's a lot of misinformation going around to the contrary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 04:13:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"

The U.S. government is not to blame for the original outbreak, but is to blame for the mishandling of the U.S. side of things (and there are a lot of things that have been mishandled). China's government suppressed information about the virus for over a month, losing valuable time for WHO and other governments to prepare for a global pandemic.

But the original point is that we should not blame the people for the actions of their government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 04:16:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 04:12:28 PM
Daily reminder that:

- Habeus corpus is still in effect
- Free movement is still allowed
- There has been no declaration of martial law.  Anywhere.  Period.

You will not get arrested for merely being out in public.  There's a lot of misinformation going around to the contrary.

The term being used here is "social pressure."   I find that amusing since I barely interact with anyone to begin. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 04:19:20 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 04:13:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"

The U.S. government is not to blame for the original outbreak, but is to blame for the mishandling of the U.S. side of things (and there are a lot of things that have been mishandled). China's government suppressed information about the virus for over a month, losing valuable time for WHO and other governments to prepare for a global pandemic.

But the original point is that we should not blame the people for the actions of their government.
for less than a week, if that. And a huge question if they could change things. Given what we know today - probably not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 04:21:35 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 04:13:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"

The U.S. government is not to blame for the original outbreak, but is to blame for the mishandling of the U.S. side of things (and there are a lot of things that have been mishandled). China's government suppressed information about the virus for over a month, losing valuable time for WHO and other governments to prepare for a global pandemic.

But the original point is that we should not blame the people for the actions of their government.
I think a lot of Americans don't understand that we have multiple levels of government, and each one has specific powers reserved to it.  When you see the actions being taken in the EU, those countries have given themselves a strong centralized government.  They can excersise a broader authority. 

There isn't much our Federal government can do to make the states do something, as they have a great deal of sovereignty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 04:40:47 PM
I haven't dug into the details of the mandatory lockdowns in all of the states that have them, but Illinois' specifically protects outdoor recreation (walking, hiking, biking, etc.) as an "essential activity" so long as social distancing is observed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 04:45:43 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 04:40:47 PM
I haven't dug into the details of the mandatory lockdowns in all of the states that have them, but Illinois' specifically protects outdoor recreation (walking, hiking, biking, etc.) as an "essential activity" so long as social distancing is observed.
It makes sense. Anything without face-to-face interaction should be fine.
While we're at it, liquor stores are essential businesses in NY.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: renegade on March 21, 2020, 05:14:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 04:16:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 04:12:28 PM
Daily reminder that:

- Habeus corpus is still in effect
- Free movement is still allowed
- There has been no declaration of martial law.  Anywhere.  Period.

You will not get arrested for merely being out in public.  There's a lot of misinformation going around to the contrary.

The term being used here is "social pressure."   I find that amusing since I barely interact with anyone to begin.
Same here.  I give exactly zero fucks about social pressure.  The fewer people I have to deal with, the better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 05:37:03 PM
Quote from: renegade on March 21, 2020, 05:14:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 04:16:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 04:12:28 PM
Daily reminder that:

- Habeus corpus is still in effect
- Free movement is still allowed
- There has been no declaration of martial law.  Anywhere.  Period.

You will not get arrested for merely being out in public.  There's a lot of misinformation going around to the contrary.

The term being used here is "social pressure."   I find that amusing since I barely interact with anyone to begin.
Same here.  I give exactly zero fucks about social pressure.  The fewer people I have to deal with, the better.

The irony is for me that all this has made me interact with more people in this past week than I would in three months, largely not by choice.  At this point if I can find some BLM land that has a hiking trail open I'm taking the opportunity to disappear from cell range for a day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 21, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 04:12:28 PM
Daily reminder that:

- Habeus corpus is still in effect
- Free movement is still allowed
- There has been no declaration of martial law.  Anywhere.  Period.

You will not get arrested for merely being out in public.  There's a lot of misinformation going around to the contrary.

NJ, in their order to close non-essential businesses, did say to go out for walks to get some exercise.  Apparently in some towns people are calling 911 simply because kids are playing together.  The police are trying to insist not to call 911 for that...if you have an issue with that and feel you must call someone, call the local non-emergency line.   Speaking of, in a newspaper article, the police were asked if they were going to stop people out between 8pm and 5am (the original quasi-curfew time).  Not only did they say they're not really going to stop motorists for driving during that time, most officers said they're not going to stop people for minor infractions - they want to stay away from us as much as possible themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 21, 2020, 05:49:47 PM
For those who love data points and charts, here's a link to a chart showing rates in various countries including the timeframes where lockdowns took place:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1241463928271581185

Right now it looks like South Korea may have nailed the initial containment better than others. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on March 21, 2020, 05:52:55 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 04:40:47 PM
I haven't dug into the details of the mandatory lockdowns in all of the states that have them, but Illinois' specifically protects outdoor recreation (walking, hiking, biking, etc.) as an "essential activity" so long as social distancing is observed.

Yet Illinois closed all the state parks IIRC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 06:08:04 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on March 21, 2020, 05:52:55 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 21, 2020, 04:40:47 PM
I haven't dug into the details of the mandatory lockdowns in all of the states that have them, but Illinois' specifically protects outdoor recreation (walking, hiking, biking, etc.) as an "essential activity" so long as social distancing is observed.

Yet Illinois closed all the state parks IIRC.
Can be staffing thing. Can a state park be legally open without bunch of people on site?
Here in NY, fee collecting attendant is the minimum requirement...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 06:46:10 PM
I don't like the idea of saying, "well, Country X has Y confirmed cases and Z deaths which is more than Country A so clearly Country X doesn't give a shit".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on March 21, 2020, 07:12:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
In regards to the Bay Area that was reaching unsustainable level anyways giving the skyrocketing home prices and urban sprawl to San Juan County.

San Juan County, California?  There is none such.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_counties_in_California

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 07:23:08 PM
Quote from: ixnay on March 21, 2020, 07:12:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
In regards to the Bay Area that was reaching unsustainable level anyways giving the skyrocketing home prices and urban sprawl to San Juan County.

San Juan County, California?  There is none such.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_counties_in_California

ixnay

Meant San Joaquin County in the context of Tracy and Stockton. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on March 21, 2020, 08:15:15 PM
In road-related news, the Texas Transportation Commission meeting will be conducted electronically.  There will be a live stream and public comments will be taken by telephone.  Usually there's a video of the meetings, but since everyone will be in different places there will only be audio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 21, 2020, 09:54:42 PM
Kansas City is going to mandatory "Stay at Home" beginning Tuesday.

Arkansas has shut down all dining rooms, but a lot of eateries are going to carry-out and delivery with restricted hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 21, 2020, 10:01:24 PM
NY Thruway has suspended cash collection indefinitely. For the record, I have been told the Maine Turnpike Authority will NOT be doing an AET measure at their toll facilities as of the posting of this message. I wonder how many other states will follow suit...

Emergency Toll Procedures - NY Thruway (http://www.thruway.ny.gov/etp/index.html)

Quote from: New York Thruway AuthorityFor the safety of Thruway Authority personnel and the travelling public and out of an abundance of caution, emergency tolling procedures are in place for cash collection on the Thruway until further notice. Beginning March 22 at approximately 8 p.m., non-E-ZPass customers will not receive a toll ticket on entry, and will be asked to provide license plate information when they exit the Thruway, without paying cash. They will receive a bill in the mail approximately 30 days after travel which they can pay with credit card, through the steps below.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on March 21, 2020, 10:02:10 PM
Quote from: renegade on March 21, 2020, 05:14:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 04:16:00 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 21, 2020, 04:12:28 PM
Daily reminder that:

- Habeus corpus is still in effect
- Free movement is still allowed
- There has been no declaration of martial law.  Anywhere.  Period.

You will not get arrested for merely being out in public.  There's a lot of misinformation going around to the contrary.

The term being used here is "social pressure."   I find that amusing since I barely interact with anyone to begin.
Same here.  I give exactly zero fucks about social pressure.  The fewer people I have to deal with, the better.
I couldn't really care that much about social pressure either. But I'd like to be able to know that if I need to buy gas or food or whatever, that I can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 10:06:16 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM
I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL

Or just self-quarantine yourself from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 10:15:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"

That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

I would be in favor of making China pay for this in the form of wiping any debt we owe to the Bank of China off the books, declare it null and void, and refuse to pay back another dime that's owed to them for our national debt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 21, 2020, 10:25:22 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 10:15:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"

That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

I would be in favor of making China pay for this in the form of wiping any debt we owe to the Bank of China off the books, declare it null and void, and refuse to pay back another dime that's owed to them for our national debt.

What is your evidence for that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 10:31:35 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 21, 2020, 10:25:22 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 10:15:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"

That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

I would be in favor of making China pay for this in the form of wiping any debt we owe to the Bank of China off the books, declare it null and void, and refuse to pay back another dime that's owed to them for our national debt.

What is your evidence for that?
Who cares about minor detail like evidence of us constitution? Just send B-52s!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 21, 2020, 10:33:04 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 10:31:35 PM
Who cares about minor detail like evidence of us constitution? Just send B-52s!

I'm pretty sure the Love Shack is shut down as a non-essential business. Just as well, it's hard to socially distance in a Chrysler that seats about twenty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 10:33:29 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 21, 2020, 10:25:22 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 10:15:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 03:25:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 03:22:01 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

Except for our trade dependence on them, the millions of people with family and friends on either side, the many businesses in the U.S. that have offices there, the U.S. tourism industry that relies on Chinese traffic, etc etc.

It's really stupid to put a permanent travel ban over a temporary problem. China's government is to blame for the severity of this outbreak, but it could have originated anywhere with human-animal interaction.
For your reference, government of United States of America is usually spelled "US government", not "China's government"

That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

I would be in favor of making China pay for this in the form of wiping any debt we owe to the Bank of China off the books, declare it null and void, and refuse to pay back another dime that's owed to them for our national debt.

What is your evidence for that?

That's part of the run of typical commentary that comes up whenever a pandemic strikes.  Some people in 2009 were saying the same thing with Swine Flu in regards to it being weaponized.  In comparison to Swine Flu it remains to be seen if COVID-19 will even come close or even pass it's mortality rate and infection rate.  There is zero evidence out there that supports any recent pandemic being a biological attack.  Things like the Anthrax letters post 9/11 were in some instances real but they didn't cause wipe spread disease. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 21, 2020, 10:38:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 21, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
NJ, in their order to close non-essential businesses, did say to go out for walks to get some exercise.  Apparently in some towns people are calling 911 simply because kids are playing together.  The police are trying to insist not to call 911 for that...if you have an issue with that and feel you must call someone, call the local non-emergency line.   Speaking of, in a newspaper article, the police were asked if they were going to stop people out between 8pm and 5am (the original quasi-curfew time).  Not only did they say they're not really going to stop motorists for driving during that time, most officers said they're not going to stop people for minor infractions - they want to stay away from us as much as possible themselves.

Driving from Memphis back to Hartford this past Sunday/Monday, one of the things I observed was a remarkable lack of speed traps.   I saw one Sunday morning outside Memphis, one Monday afternoon in Pennsylvania...and that was pretty much it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 21, 2020, 10:43:14 PM
China will "pay for" COVID the same way that Mexico will "pay for" a border wall: it won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 10:44:55 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 21, 2020, 10:38:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 21, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
NJ, in their order to close non-essential businesses, did say to go out for walks to get some exercise.  Apparently in some towns people are calling 911 simply because kids are playing together.  The police are trying to insist not to call 911 for that...if you have an issue with that and feel you must call someone, call the local non-emergency line.   Speaking of, in a newspaper article, the police were asked if they were going to stop people out between 8pm and 5am (the original quasi-curfew time).  Not only did they say they're not really going to stop motorists for driving during that time, most officers said they're not going to stop people for minor infractions - they want to stay away from us as much as possible themselves.

Driving from Memphis back to Hartford this past Sunday/Monday, one of the things I observed was a remarkable lack of speed traps.   I saw one Sunday morning outside Memphis, one Monday afternoon in Pennsylvania...and that was pretty much it.
And if you get pulled over, just give them a warning cough along with the license....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 10:49:14 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 10:44:55 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 21, 2020, 10:38:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 21, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
NJ, in their order to close non-essential businesses, did say to go out for walks to get some exercise.  Apparently in some towns people are calling 911 simply because kids are playing together.  The police are trying to insist not to call 911 for that...if you have an issue with that and feel you must call someone, call the local non-emergency line.   Speaking of, in a newspaper article, the police were asked if they were going to stop people out between 8pm and 5am (the original quasi-curfew time).  Not only did they say they're not really going to stop motorists for driving during that time, most officers said they're not going to stop people for minor infractions - they want to stay away from us as much as possible themselves.

Driving from Memphis back to Hartford this past Sunday/Monday, one of the things I observed was a remarkable lack of speed traps.   I saw one Sunday morning outside Memphis, one Monday afternoon in Pennsylvania...and that was pretty much it.
And if you get pulled over, just give them a warning cough along with the license....

Regarding people calling 911 we had a neighbor threatening to do that with some kids playing in the park on a neighborhood app.  It got blasted hard by pretty much everyone else on the street and was taken down.  I think it was the same person who tried to call the police because my Mother-in-law hand her handicap tag truck out in front of the house for two days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 21, 2020, 10:51:19 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 21, 2020, 10:44:55 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 21, 2020, 10:38:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 21, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
NJ, in their order to close non-essential businesses, did say to go out for walks to get some exercise.  Apparently in some towns people are calling 911 simply because kids are playing together.  The police are trying to insist not to call 911 for that...if you have an issue with that and feel you must call someone, call the local non-emergency line.   Speaking of, in a newspaper article, the police were asked if they were going to stop people out between 8pm and 5am (the original quasi-curfew time).  Not only did they say they're not really going to stop motorists for driving during that time, most officers said they're not going to stop people for minor infractions - they want to stay away from us as much as possible themselves.

Driving from Memphis back to Hartford this past Sunday/Monday, one of the things I observed was a remarkable lack of speed traps.   I saw one Sunday morning outside Memphis, one Monday afternoon in Pennsylvania...and that was pretty much it.
And if you get pulled over, just give them a warning cough along with the license....

My wife and I both have pre-existing chronic coughs.   We couldn't decide whether a coughing fit if we were pulled over would get us free, or get us locked in quarantine.  :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 21, 2020, 10:52:31 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 21, 2020, 10:38:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 21, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
NJ, in their order to close non-essential businesses, did say to go out for walks to get some exercise.  Apparently in some towns people are calling 911 simply because kids are playing together.  The police are trying to insist not to call 911 for that...if you have an issue with that and feel you must call someone, call the local non-emergency line.   Speaking of, in a newspaper article, the police were asked if they were going to stop people out between 8pm and 5am (the original quasi-curfew time).  Not only did they say they're not really going to stop motorists for driving during that time, most officers said they're not going to stop people for minor infractions - they want to stay away from us as much as possible themselves.

Driving from Memphis back to Hartford this past Sunday/Monday, one of the things I observed was a remarkable lack of speed traps.   I saw one Sunday morning outside Memphis, one Monday afternoon in Pennsylvania...and that was pretty much it.

On the contrary, when I went to grab my remaining items in Orono last Friday, there were a lot of Maine State Troopers patrolling I-295 and 95 between Brunswick and Bangor. Flow of traffic was mostly going 130-140+ km/h (80-87+ mph) and not one officer pulled anyone over... even saw one of their pickups as well. Freeway was mostly empty and most of the traffic was actually heading northbound, southbound was literally empty in some spots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 10:56:07 PM
A few cities here have closed their parks because of inappropriate social congregation...people can't follow suggestions, so sadly they have to ruin it for all of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 21, 2020, 10:59:09 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on March 21, 2020, 10:38:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 21, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
NJ, in their order to close non-essential businesses, did say to go out for walks to get some exercise.  Apparently in some towns people are calling 911 simply because kids are playing together.  The police are trying to insist not to call 911 for that...if you have an issue with that and feel you must call someone, call the local non-emergency line.   Speaking of, in a newspaper article, the police were asked if they were going to stop people out between 8pm and 5am (the original quasi-curfew time).  Not only did they say they're not really going to stop motorists for driving during that time, most officers said they're not going to stop people for minor infractions - they want to stay away from us as much as possible themselves.

Driving from Memphis back to Hartford this past Sunday/Monday, one of the things I observed was a remarkable lack of speed traps.   I saw one Sunday morning outside Memphis, one Monday afternoon in Pennsylvania...and that was pretty much it.
A Memphis without cops positioned at every single exit? Shocking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 22, 2020, 12:57:09 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 10:56:07 PM
A few cities here have closed their parks because of inappropriate social congregation...people can't follow suggestions, so sadly they have to ruin it for all of us.
or the city can fuck the fuck off and not close parks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 22, 2020, 12:58:40 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 22, 2020, 12:57:09 AMor the city can fuck the fuck off and not close parks.

I think this is the first time I've ever wanted a "like" button on this forum!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 22, 2020, 01:06:35 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 22, 2020, 12:57:09 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 10:56:07 PM
A few cities here have closed their parks because of inappropriate social congregation...people can't follow suggestions, so sadly they have to ruin it for all of us.
or the city can fuck the fuck off and not close parks.

And we can have more asymptomatic carriers from those park gatherings going home and infecting vulnerable people, who get sent to the already overburdened hospitals to die a horrible death.

I went for a walk on a local trail today and was able to maintain an appropriate social distance. If there are too many people at a park to maintain the social distance, it needs to be closed to all users, period. The virus can spread from person to person in outdoor environments, even if it isn't as strong as it is indoor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on March 22, 2020, 01:16:17 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 22, 2020, 01:06:35 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 22, 2020, 12:57:09 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 21, 2020, 10:56:07 PM
A few cities here have closed their parks because of inappropriate social congregation...people can't follow suggestions, so sadly they have to ruin it for all of us.
or the city can fuck the fuck off and not close parks.

And we can have more asymptomatic carriers from those park gatherings going home and infecting vulnerable people, who get sent to the already overburdened hospitals to die a horrible death.

From what I understand, while asymptomatic transmission is possible, it is relatively rare and not really something to worry a whole lot about. If you come into contact with an asymptomatic person who has had contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case, current CDC guidelines do not consider you exposed - otherwise you’d probably have to quarantine for 14 days and then never develop any symptoms in that 2 week span.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on March 22, 2020, 02:05:08 AM
Quote from: US 89 on March 22, 2020, 01:16:17 AM
From what I understand, while asymptomatic transmission is possible, it is relatively rare and not really something to worry a whole lot about. If you come into contact with an asymptomatic person who has had contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case, current CDC guidelines do not consider you exposed - otherwise you'd probably have to quarantine for 14 days and then never develop any symptoms in that 2 week span.

Okay so let's keep something important in mind here: statistically speaking, transmission of the virus at any stage of infection is relatively rare. When things are completely unchecked we're talking about each person who has the virus spreading it on average to 3-4 other people. Out of probably thousands they have direct or indirect contact with over the course of the infection.

The problem is an infected person spreading the virus to any number of other people greater than 1 results in exponential case growth, so even that "rare" transmission is still too much.

So now why is it that almost every other person who encounters the infected directly or indirectly doesn't get sick? Well, here's something else to consider: when a person with a fully functioning immune system inhales a few dozen virus particles, the odds they'll ever get sick are basically nil. Their immune system will get rid of those before they're able to do any damage. It takes exposure to, generally, over 10,000 virus particles before you get to the point where they'll take over cells and start replicating faster than the immune system is able to stop them.

It thus logically follows that the amount of exposure matters a lot. It's perfectly safe to walk past someone on the street closer than the recommended 6 foot separation distance. Even if they're infected, the amount of time you're in proximity to each other will be too low for anything to come of it. But, y'know, don't stop and have a conversation with them while they're that close to you. Don't stand right next to them in line at the store. The longer you spend in the presence of someone infected, the more virus particles you will inhale, and the greater the risk of you getting sick becomes.

This is why, for example, dine-in at restaurants is a no-no, but going inside quickly to pick up take-out is fine. It's also why events like spectator sports, religious services, parties, etc. are BAD because you have large numbers of people remaining in close proximity to each other for prolonged periods of time - the last part is key.

The same sort of thing applies to contact exposure. You may hear all these crazy stats about how "the virus can survive up to 12 hours on the surface of this or that", but that doesn't really give an accurate picture of the situation. In actuality, once viruses are deposited on a surface, they will gradually become inert and incapable of causing infection - following, roughly, an exponential decay curve. When they say "the virus can survive up to 12 hours on this surface" what they actually mean is it takes 12 hours for the last virus particle to become inert. But since it takes a larger number of virus particles to make you sick, this is not the measurement that actually matters. In reality, the risk of getting sick from touching a contaminated surface (and then touching your face) is the highest when that surface was just touched, coughed on, etc. by the infected individual within the last few minutes, and it drops from there. You don't need to leave things you bring into your house sitting for 12 hours before they're safe to touch if not disinfected. They become okay to touch a lot sooner than that even if they still have some number of viruses on them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 22, 2020, 02:05:36 AM
I've never really understood how you "close" a park. It's just an area set aside for recreational use. Most city parks around here don't really have a fence or anything around them you could lock up, so you'd have to station police there 24/7 while the park is closed, and Norman probably has more parks than it does police officers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 22, 2020, 03:24:51 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 22, 2020, 02:05:36 AM
I've never really understood how you "close" a park. It's just an area set aside for recreational use. Most city parks around here don't really have a fence or anything around them you could lock up, so you'd have to station police there 24/7 while the park is closed, and Norman probably has more parks than it does police officers.

In many cases, they put up snow fences around playground equipment to keep kids off them. Yes, it's somewhat of an honor system. People need to stop making it like a challenge though to find ways around bans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 22, 2020, 10:04:00 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 10:15:02 PM
That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.  Either provide it or perhaps pipe down with conspiracy theories. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on March 22, 2020, 10:33:11 AM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 21, 2020, 10:59:09 PM
A Memphis without cops positioned at every single exit? Shocking.

My hotel was by the I-40/Germantown Parkway interchange, so....

Also, in Memphis, those aren't speed-traps.  Those are "officers pre-positioned for highway shootings, who enforce speed laws in an effort to stay awake".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 22, 2020, 10:43:42 AM
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/22/live-governor-expected-announce-new-restrictions-bid-fight-spread-virus/ (https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/22/live-governor-expected-announce-new-restrictions-bid-fight-spread-virus/)




Update Hawaii has issued a 14 day quarantine order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on March 22, 2020, 10:45:46 AM
Quote from: kwellada on March 22, 2020, 10:04:00 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 10:15:02 PM
That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.  Either provide it or perhaps pipe down with conspiracy theories. 

I also sincerely doubt it's a biological weapon of any kind.  Virii are very hard to control as weapons, and they often can bounce back onto your own troops/people easily.  It's most likely due to someone eating something they probably shouldn't and getting sick off it.

Never attribute to malice what can almost always be better explained by simple human stupidity and incompetence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 22, 2020, 10:52:50 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 22, 2020, 10:45:46 AM
I also sincerely doubt it's a biological weapon of any kind.  Virii are very hard to control as weapons, and they often can bounce back onto your own troops/people easily.  It's most likely due to someone eating something they probably shouldn't and getting sick off it.

Never attribute to malice what can almost always be better explained by simple human stupidity and incompetence.

Plus there's the established science of viruses hopping from pigs or birds or bats to a human population particularly in areas where the wild is pressured by humans moving into their territories.  Given that it's also from the coronavirus family, it's exceptionally unlikely to be a bioweapon. 

It'd make for an interesting sci-fi novel, other than the fact that Stephen King probably nailed the concept in The Stand way back in the 70s. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 22, 2020, 12:51:45 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 22, 2020, 02:05:08 AMSo now why is it that almost every other person who encounters the infected directly or indirectly doesn't get sick? Well, here's something else to consider: when a person with a fully functioning immune system inhales a few dozen virus particles, the odds they'll ever get sick are basically nil. Their immune system will get rid of those before they're able to do any damage. It takes exposure to, generally, over 10,000 virus particles before you get to the point where they'll take over cells and start replicating faster than the immune system is able to stop them.

It thus logically follows that the amount of exposure matters a lot. It's perfectly safe to walk past someone on the street closer than the recommended 6 foot separation distance. Even if they're infected, the amount of time you're in proximity to each other will be too low for anything to come of it. But, y'know, don't stop and have a conversation with them while they're that close to you. Don't stand right next to them in line at the store. The longer you spend in the presence of someone infected, the more virus particles you will inhale, and the greater the risk of you getting sick becomes.

This is why, for example, dine-in at restaurants is a no-no, but going inside quickly to pick up take-out is fine. It's also why events like spectator sports, religious services, parties, etc. are BAD because you have large numbers of people remaining in close proximity to each other for prolonged periods of time - the last part is key.

I think this all goes to the concept of viral load (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_load), and for coronavirus at least, it seems to have implications for case severity as well.  When the Chinese ophthalmologist and coronavirus dissident Li Wenliang (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang#Illness_and_death) fell mortally ill, he was just 33 years old (thus in the age group with an 0.2% case fatality rate) and in excellent health.  But he is thought to have been exposed while treating someone who worked at the Huanan Seafood Market and thus presented with a high viral load.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 22, 2020, 01:10:06 PM
Cross-posted to the Utica Road Meet thread, as this is where it really belongs:

Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 09:57:56 PM
My personal opinion is that most of this blows over either next week or the week after, and things start getting back to normal.

A recession is inevitable, so it certainly won't be pre-March 11th normal. It will be a new kind of normal, and it will likely take more than a few weeks to figure out what that new normal will be, and just how much damage has been done to the economy.

Signs of "returning to normal" that I'll be looking for:

-Schools reopening
-Offices reopening
-Sports leagues restarting
-Traffic levels increasing

IMO, it depends on what state you're in, but in NY at least, all of those things are a few weeks away at minimum. Maybe a month would be more realistic. Keep in mind too that the coronavirus cases that are being reported today are the result of transmission a week or up to two weeks ago, before shutdowns, social distancing, and staying home became the norm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 22, 2020, 01:19:35 PM
Welp, this shit has finally worked it's way to my neck of the woods...and no, I'm not the one infected. *knock on wood*

https://www.godanriver.com/news/local/update-danville-man-in-his-s-is-first-case-of/article_71eb0cc0-6c46-11ea-a809-333cc1fd1a7b.html (https://www.godanriver.com/news/local/update-danville-man-in-his-s-is-first-case-of/article_71eb0cc0-6c46-11ea-a809-333cc1fd1a7b.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 22, 2020, 01:27:41 PM
My Wife's weekend job at a mental health facility in Fresno thought they had two infected patients, it turned out they didn't.  So far there has been a lot of moonlight opportunities and n the weekend, during the week my wife works up in Madera County.  I guess at least in Madera County they have moved to a partial work from home schedule and aren't doing office visits with mental health clients.  I'm to understand everything has to be done over the phone. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 22, 2020, 01:30:09 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 21, 2020, 10:43:14 PM
China will "pay for" COVID the same way that Mexico will "pay for" a border wall: it won't.

We have a winner!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 22, 2020, 01:48:24 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 22, 2020, 01:30:09 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 21, 2020, 10:43:14 PM
China will "pay for" COVID the same way that Mexico will "pay for" a border wall: it won't.

We have a winner!

Speaking of Mexico as far as I know mostly it seems to be business as usual down there.  The relatives actually called us because they heard "stay at home"  was a hard lock down.  I don't seem to recall much in the way of restrictions like we are seeing on this scale took place during Swine Flu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 22, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 22, 2020, 01:10:06 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 09:57:56 PMMy personal opinion is that most of this blows over either next week or the week after, and things start getting back to normal.

A recession is inevitable, so it certainly won't be pre-March 11th normal. It will be a new kind of normal, and it will likely take more than a few weeks to figure out what that new normal will be, and just how much damage has been done to the economy.

(snip)

IMO, it depends on what state you're in, but in NY at least, all of those things are a few weeks away at minimum. Maybe a month would be more realistic. Keep in mind too that the coronavirus cases that are being reported today are the result of transmission a week or up to two weeks ago, before shutdowns, social distancing, and staying home became the norm.

The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.  (Neither Italy's lockdown nor the hard ones imposed by several US states amount to a full Wuhan, which would confine people to the indoors of their dwellings and limit outdoors movements to emergency personnel and medical providers.)

Wuhan locked down on January 23.  It is now two months later and just after the start of a two-week period of no new cases in Hubei, at the end of which there may be some relaxation of restrictions.  So my baseline is at least three months for mandatory lockdowns in the US and many months of additional delay (until the development of effective treatment outside ICUs or the adoption and widespread availability of a vaccine) before things return completely to normal.

I've seen some of the conversations about COVID-19 and its effects on road meets in the road meet board, and frankly I have to shake my head.  I'm basically in agreement with those who advocate wait-and-see, but I wouldn't be looking hard for road meets to be held until July at the very earliest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 22, 2020, 03:22:50 PM
All of Hubei was in lockdown. But in the last few days, many places across the province have started to relax the restrictions, with some prefectures already out of lockdown. It is now possible to travel freely around the province outside of Wuhan.

Meanwhile Spain is preparing to go South Korea mode. They have already ordered rapid tests, as well as setting up drive-thru test sites. Therefore, I expect the number of new cases here to spike, then dramatically drop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:34:35 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 22, 2020, 01:10:06 PM
Cross-posted to the Utica Road Meet thread, as this is where it really belongs:

Quote from: hbelkins on March 21, 2020, 09:57:56 PM
My personal opinion is that most of this blows over either next week or the week after, and things start getting back to normal.

A recession is inevitable, so it certainly won't be pre-March 11th normal. It will be a new kind of normal, and it will likely take more than a few weeks to figure out what that new normal will be, and just how much damage has been done to the economy.

Signs of "returning to normal" that I'll be looking for:

-Schools reopening
-Offices reopening
-Sports leagues restarting
-Traffic levels increasing

IMO, it depends on what state you're in, but in NY at least, all of those things are a few weeks away at minimum. Maybe a month would be more realistic. Keep in mind too that the coronavirus cases that are being reported today are the result of transmission a week or up to two weeks ago, before shutdowns, social distancing, and staying home became the norm.
I don't expect everything to be exactly how it was a couple weeks ago but I do agree this can't go on any longer than a couple weeks. Otherwise everything will go bankrupt restaurants, stores , museums theme parks will have to reopen they are losing too much money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 22, 2020, 03:50:25 PM
https://wgno.com/news/health/coronavirus/watch-live-governor-edwards-gives-coronavirus-update/

Update Louisiana has issued a Stay at home order
https://www.wafb.com/2020/03/15/latest-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-reported-la/ (https://www.wafb.com/2020/03/15/latest-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-reported-la/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 22, 2020, 03:54:17 PM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on March 22, 2020, 03:22:50 PM
Meanwhile Spain is preparing to go South Korea mode.

I thought Spain was doubling down on its current policy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 22, 2020, 04:06:25 PM
https://www.13abc.com/content/news/STAY-AT-HOME-Dept-of-Health-issues-order-to-all-Ohioans-read-it-here-569011091.html (https://www.13abc.com/content/news/STAY-AT-HOME-Dept-of-Health-issues-order-to-all-Ohioans-read-it-here-569011091.html)


Update Ohio has issued a Stay at home order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 22, 2020, 04:11:18 PM
As the number of Missouri cases hit 90, Kansas City and Saint Louis metro areas issue Stay at Home orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on March 22, 2020, 04:28:28 PM
Governor Murphy of New Jersey is not very happy about peoples' response to his latest restrictions.  What did he expect?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 22, 2020, 05:57:59 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200322/f1b94f6fa22d3e7eee87f9cea6d412b9.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

As a consumer, trade is a very good thing. It's what gives you choice. Deciding between a single American-made product and nothing else benefits the manufacturer only.

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 22, 2020, 06:18:16 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

As a consumer, trade is a very good thing. It's what gives you choice. Deciding between a single American-made product and nothing else benefits the manufacturer only.

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

Problem with things made in the America was the 1970s and 1980s happened.  Those two decades saw a huge downturn in domestic made products and the beginning of outsourcing due to high manufacturing costs.  The last two decades have done a lot to turn the corner on the perception of American build quality but it definitely nowhere near what it was...nor likely will be again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 22, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM


I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on March 22, 2020, 06:41:32 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 22, 2020, 03:24:51 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 22, 2020, 02:05:36 AM
I've never really understood how you "close" a park. It's just an area set aside for recreational use. Most city parks around here don't really have a fence or anything around them you could lock up, so you'd have to station police there 24/7 while the park is closed, and Norman probably has more parks than it does police officers.

In many cases, they put up snow fences around playground equipment to keep kids off them. Yes, it's somewhat of an honor system. People need to stop making it like a challenge though to find ways around bans.

In the case of our local park, there is a sign on the gate to the baseball field that says "fields closed" and caution tape around the playground equipment. Otherwise, there's nothing saying you can't walk or bike around in there, and I've seen people doing so, but they're not congregating so that's fine.

Quote from: J N Winkler on March 22, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.

QuoteWuhan locked down on January 23.  It is now two months later and just after the start of a two-week period of no new cases in Hubei, at the end of which there may be some relaxation of restrictions.  So my baseline is at least three months for mandatory lockdowns in the US and many months of additional delay (until the development of effective treatment outside ICUs or the adoption and widespread availability of a vaccine) before things return completely to normal.

I've seen some of the conversations about COVID-19 and its effects on road meets in the road meet board, and frankly I have to shake my head.  I'm basically in agreement with those who advocate wait-and-see, but I wouldn't be looking hard for road meets to be held until July at the very earliest.

Regarding the baseline out of China, it is important to note that you're looking at the experience in Wuhan specifically - THE ground zero of the virus. Other parts of the country were not as badly hit and were able to both have fewer restrictions and release them sooner.

The US is a similarly large country and the virus' impact here is going to be geographically disparate. We are already seeing geographic disparity in severity and timing of restriction implementation, and it's likely fair to say we will see geographic disparity in when and by how much restrictions are loosened.

Thus, I'd expect we will see a time period where road meets will be able to be held in some parts of the country but not others, and will be able to be attended by people who live in some parts of the country but not others.

Right now it looks like people in the northeast and on the west coast (naturally, the most densely populated areas, and the ones that welcome the most international visitors) may have to wait a bit longer for a return to normalcy than the rest of the country...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 06:49:32 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 22, 2020, 06:41:32 PM\
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 22, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.
Testing is the key. What I hear, Italy gave up not only on testing but on treatment as well. So those numbers are vaporware.
I hear the same thing for NY/NJ area as well.
Deaths may be somewhat appropriate metrics - but those wouldn't tell the full story until much later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on March 22, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 22, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM


I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 22, 2020, 07:21:19 PM
Quote from: Brandon on March 22, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 22, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM


I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.

Usually we visit Mexico once a year.  Its nice being able to pick up some homemade crafted stuff at local Mercados and it being generally of a high quality.  A good percentage of the populace actually has a trade and/or craft skill which has become something of a rarity State Side. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 22, 2020, 07:52:10 PM
https://www.fox19.com/2020/03/22/watch-live-ky-gov-beshear-provides-update-covid-/ (https://www.fox19.com/2020/03/22/watch-live-ky-gov-beshear-provides-update-covid-/)


Update Kentucky has issued a "non essential Business Shutdown order"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 22, 2020, 10:32:28 PM
Expect more cities and states to announce a "Non Essential Business shutdown order" or "Shelter in Place" order to happen this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 11:01:15 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 22, 2020, 10:32:28 PM
Expect more cities and states to announce a "Non Essential Business shutdown order" or "Shelter in Place" order to happen this week.
I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 22, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 11:01:15 PM
I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 22, 2020, 11:30:55 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 22, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 11:01:15 PM
I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.

I'd argue we've been in dangerous territory for the last ten years, but this crisis has just exposed why the economy hasn't really worked for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on March 23, 2020, 01:06:08 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 22, 2020, 11:30:55 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 22, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 11:01:15 PM
I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.

I'd argue we've been in dangerous territory for the last ten years, but this crisis has just exposed why the economy hasn't really worked for a while.

Some typing head had an op-ed piece a week or two ago prognosticating that "this virus is going to bankrupt more people than it kills".

Gotta say, the current path we're on seems to support this conclusion.

Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 23, 2020, 01:46:46 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 23, 2020, 01:06:08 AM
Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...

A virus closing down the economy and causing job losses is almost like an example you'd pull out of thin air to justify a belief as to why healthcare should not be tied to employment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 08:49:24 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 23, 2020, 01:06:08 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 22, 2020, 11:30:55 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 22, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 11:01:15 PM
I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.

I'd argue we've been in dangerous territory for the last ten years, but this crisis has just exposed why the economy hasn't really worked for a while.

Some typing head had an op-ed piece a week or two ago prognosticating that "this virus is going to bankrupt more people than it kills".

Gotta say, the current path we're on seems to support this conclusion.

Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...

I have a friend who's already approaching bankruptcy due to the virus.  He already had to lay off ten employees because there was no way to pay given that the revenue essentially went to zero overnight.  His business we doing okay but they definitely couldn't afford to close up shop like so many other businesses that were deemed non-essential. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 23, 2020, 12:51:13 PM
Obviously, I have no evidence that this is a biological weapon, but it's not an impossibility either. And it's certainly not as if the ChiComs care about their populace. Those types of dictators have no qualms about hurting their own people to take down an enemy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 23, 2020, 01:05:16 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 23, 2020, 01:46:46 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 23, 2020, 01:06:08 AM
Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...

A virus closing down the economy and causing job losses is almost like an example you'd pull out of thin air to justify a belief as to why healthcare should not be tied to employment.

Interesting theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 23, 2020, 01:12:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 23, 2020, 12:51:13 PM
Obviously, I have no evidence that this is a biological weapon, but it's not an impossibility either. And it's certainly not as if the ChiComs care about their populace. Those types of dictators have no qualms about hurting their own people to take down an enemy.
Well, there is a much better case to build about virus modification research on the opposite side of the world.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502
NCSU actually did a bit of research towards weaponising coronavirus. Officially, that research was banned shortly after - but maybe it was just classified?...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on March 23, 2020, 01:58:08 PM
The greatest fault of the US is the disjointed response at every turn as various agendas emerged within government, business, and social circles trying to contradict and downplay each other to protect themselves and their interests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on March 23, 2020, 02:16:28 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 23, 2020, 02:21:31 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 23, 2020, 02:16:28 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)

And Mexico.

And particularly, machines. One worker using advanced machinery (e.g. robots) can make many more products than an army of blue-collar workers on an assembly line several generations ago. As productivity goes up, labor utilization goes down.

This has all been true for decades. None of this is new.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 23, 2020, 04:07:59 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 06:49:32 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 22, 2020, 06:41:32 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 22, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.

Testing is the key. What I hear, Italy gave up not only on testing but on treatment as well. So those numbers are vaporware.

I hear the same thing for NY/NJ area as well.

Deaths may be somewhat appropriate metrics - but those wouldn't tell the full story until much later.

Today's numbers are in the same direction:  confirmed cases up only 8%, 50 fewer deaths today than the day before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 23, 2020, 04:26:14 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 23, 2020, 04:07:59 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 22, 2020, 06:49:32 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on March 22, 2020, 06:41:32 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 22, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.

Testing is the key. What I hear, Italy gave up not only on testing but on treatment as well. So those numbers are vaporware.

I hear the same thing for NY/NJ area as well.

Deaths may be somewhat appropriate metrics - but those wouldn't tell the full story until much later.

Today's numbers are in the same direction:  confirmed cases up only 8%, 50 fewer deaths today than the day before.

I just got a word from a friend in a major NYC hospital. It is beyond bad.
Oncologist needed to test a patient who is exhibiting moderate symptoms and need to decide if they should go ahead with therapy or postpone it.
Interrupting therapy if patient is actually having a virus means severe decrease of survival probability.
Pulling all the strings, the doctor couldn't secure a test. No tests left, those few in reserves are reserved for those heading towards intensive care.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 04:43:57 PM
Boeing will shut down all operations in Western Washington beginning on Wednesday for a two-week period. One worker at the Everett plant died.

This comes a few days after Everett specifically allowed Boeing to continue as an "essential" business, which is a bit absurd given the situation. Sad that it took a death to get things done right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 23, 2020, 06:02:37 PM
NC's governor is keeping all schools closed until May 15 and has ordered all gyms, health clubs, movie theaters, hair and nail salons, barber shops and massage therapists to close by 5pm Wednesday. Gatherings of 50 or more people are also banned. It was previously 100.

https://abc11.com/health/covid-19-latest-cooper-executive-order-closes-k-12-through-may-15/6041143/ (https://abc11.com/health/covid-19-latest-cooper-executive-order-closes-k-12-through-may-15/6041143/)

Meanwhile, on this side of the state line, our governor is keeping all schools closed for the remainder of the school year, along with ordering more restrictions.

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/vdh-reports-254-cases-of-the-coronavirus-in-virginia (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/vdh-reports-254-cases-of-the-coronavirus-in-virginia)

QuoteExecutive Order 53 is effective at midnight on Tuesday, March 24.

Restaurants can remain open for carryout, curbside and delivery service only.

All recreation and entertainment facilities like bowling alleys, theaters, fitness centers and race tracks must close.

Personal care services that cannot adhere to social distancing like barbershops, spas and massage parlors must close.

Non-essential retail can remain open if they can allow 10 or fewer people, they can practice social distancing and they increase sanitization procedures.

Essential services like grocery stores and health services will remain open. They need to adhere to social distancing and sanitation procedures.

"This is an unprecedented situation, and it requires unprecedented actions to protect public health and save lives,"  said Governor Northam. "I know the next several weeks will be difficult. These restrictions on non-essential businesses will create hardships on the businesses and employees affected. But they are necessary, and we do not undertake them lightly. I am calling on Virginians to sacrifice now, so that we can get through this together."

The executive order is in effect for at least 30 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 23, 2020, 08:19:37 PM
In an overnight move, my local park board taped off playgrounds.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200324/6993837548ae7587d76dd2ca4315197d.jpg)

SM-G965U

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 08:33:05 PM
My cousin is getting over what she suspected was COVID-19.  Apparently it will take at minimum seven days (this is in Michigan) to get test results back, so far it's been only three.  She works as a nurse so at the moment she has been sent home for isolation. 

Locally in Central California there really isn't much news.  Apparently there hasn't been any deaths in San Joaquin Valley and the last I checked I don't believe Kings County had a confirmed case.  Yosemite was shuttered apparently at the request of Madera County but Kings Canyon/Sequoia remains open...might be snow shoe time Saturday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 23, 2020, 08:58:30 PM
Washington residents are now being asked/forced to "stay in":

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1242253589667553286
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 23, 2020, 08:59:04 PM
In my neck of the woods, all of York Beach is being closed indefinitely after an "unacceptable influx of weekend visitors".  Apparently, Popham Beach State Park's car park up in Phippsburg ME was full, prompting the state of Maine to issue public safety warnings. There were a lot of people walking the trails in Portland's Back Cove yesterday. Not sure how this will affect the other state parks in the near future...

York beaches close amid coronavirus concerns (https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/local/york-beaches-close-amid-coronavirus/97-23a43916-ca30-4750-b15d-7acab8faf85d)

Quote from: Maine Department of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry"In the interest of public safety, we ask that visitors observe the following: If you are not feeling well, DO NOT enter. Practice social distancing. DO NOT gather in groups of ten or more."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on March 23, 2020, 09:39:11 PM
An annoying behavior I've observed and am already tired of:

At the store, people who come to the stack of baskets, pull out their wipes and fully sanitize the one they're going to use before they pull it out of the stack.  There are people behind you who have to wait for that.  You can grab the basket with your wipes, gloves or whatever, pull it out and move a few yards away and do all the cleaning you want over there without blocking anybody.

I also saw this on the airplane a few nights ago, the standing in the aisle and wiping down the seat during boarding, completely disregarding all the people lined up behind who are trying to get on the plane.

I hate being the a-hole but patience is going to wear thin pretty quickly on this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 09:53:48 PM
I don't think I've seen a single person wipe down a cart or basket all month.  Come to think of it the only day I went to the store and it was super busy was when I went for beer the night Fresno announced their stay at home measure.  It would had been a fast trip had the person in line in front of me not tried to use 8 million coupons. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on March 23, 2020, 10:10:45 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 09:53:48 PM
I don't think I've seen a single person wipe down a cart or basket all month.  Come to think of it the only day I went to the store and it was super busy was when I went for beer the night Fresno announced their stay at home measure.  It would had been a fast trip had the person in line in front of me not tried to use 8 million coupons. 
Because the wipes were hoarded off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:21:22 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 23, 2020, 10:10:45 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 09:53:48 PM
I don't think I've seen a single person wipe down a cart or basket all month.  Come to think of it the only day I went to the store and it was super busy was when I went for beer the night Fresno announced their stay at home measure.  It would had been a fast trip had the person in line in front of me not tried to use 8 million coupons. 
Because the wipes were hoarded off.

Perhaps so, I don't recall seeing the stand they are usually on present either.  Either way I feel like I missed out (probably for the best) on the widespread levels of malfeasance that wasreported afoot around that time in stores. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 7/8 on March 23, 2020, 10:29:53 PM
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-orders-all-non-essential-businesses-to-shut-down-1.4864492 (https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-orders-all-non-essential-businesses-to-shut-down-1.4864492)

Looks like I'll be working from home starting Wednesday. It'll be interesting to see how this affects my company's construction projects (mainly local road reconstruction).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 23, 2020, 10:34:44 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 09:53:48 PM
I don't think I've seen a single person wipe down a cart or basket all month.  Come to think of it the only day I went to the store and it was super busy was when I went for beer the night Fresno announced their stay at home measure.  It would had been a fast trip had the person in line in front of me not tried to use 8 million coupons. 

I'm very fortunate to live within walking distance of a grocery store.

My rule-of-thumb is this: no cart, no basket: only grab what you can carry in your arms. Since I ultimately have to carry everything home. Usually this is easy because I have a reusable bag with me to plop things into, but every now and then I forget. In which case my rule-of-thumb comes up.

At any rate, I refuse to use the trolleys or hand baskets. Extra important now with the Coronavirus issue (it's been my rule for a while anyways).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
^^^

I can't remember the last time I needed a shopping cart at a regular grocery store.  Usually all I ever go for is; something my wife wants, a 32oz Poweraid I need for a long run, or fried chicken from the deli.  The grocery store isn't so bad compared to the horrors I've seen inflicted upon shopping carts at places like Walmart and Target. 

Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 23, 2020, 11:21:22 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-chloroquine-idUSKBN21A3Y2 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-chloroquine-idUSKBN21A3Y2)

Warning there is a report of a Chloroquine overdose death and allegedly the intention was to stop COVID-19.

Also Hawaii has issued a stray at home order.


https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus-2/8-new-covid-19-cases-in-hawaii-bringing-state-total-to-56/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 11:35:51 PM
The pandemic is also revealing an ugly side of American culture: the widespread acceptance of anti-Asian racism.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1242292009844563968

Calling it the "Chinese virus", as the president does, just emboldens the racists.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on March 23, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them. 

Wait...what?!?!  "Honey, what are we going to give the Rockatanskys for a wedding present?"  "Hmmm...how about a couple of those 48-packs of toilet paper from Costco?  That would be perfect!"   :awesomeface:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 12:10:57 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 11:35:51 PM
The pandemic is also revealing an ugly side of American culture: the widespread acceptance of anti-Asian racism.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1242292009844563968

Calling it the "Chinese virus", as the president does, just emboldens the racists.

Needlessly too. You can talk objectively about the origins of the disease - no serious person doubts that the virus emerged in Wuhan/Hubei Province. But the political spin gives a proverbial "green light" for people to go an run with it.

Reminds me after 9/11 how some Sikh men (who are not Muslim) were harassed because they were wearing turbans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on March 24, 2020, 12:42:02 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
^^^

I can't remember the last time I needed a shopping cart at a regular grocery store.  Usually all I ever go for is; something my wife wants, a 32oz Poweraid I need for a long run, or fried chicken from the deli.  The grocery store isn't so bad compared to the horrors I've seen inflicted upon shopping carts at places like Walmart and Target. 

Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them.
lol... now you can send them pictures and say "you thought you were being clever by cheaping out, but's who's laughing now!?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 24, 2020, 12:47:01 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 24, 2020, 12:42:02 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
^^^

I can't remember the last time I needed a shopping cart at a regular grocery store.  Usually all I ever go for is; something my wife wants, a 32oz Poweraid I need for a long run, or fried chicken from the deli.  The grocery store isn't so bad compared to the horrors I've seen inflicted upon shopping carts at places like Walmart and Target. 

Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them.
lol... now you can send them pictures and say "you thought you were being clever by cheaping out, but's who's laughing now!?"

I was laughing all last year with those 140 something cans and bottles of beer that everyone didn't bother to finish.  It took me almost eight months to finish all of it.  I still have bulk bottles of bleach that probably would last me through a couple nuclear wars at this point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on March 24, 2020, 02:46:06 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 22, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 22, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM


I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.
I have both Mexican and Chinese guitars, and they are all excellent. The days when American guitars were a lot better than guitars that are made elsewhere are over.

U304AA

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 07:29:01 AM
Quote from: gonealookin on March 23, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them. 

Wait...what?!?!  "Honey, what are we going to give the Rockatanskys for a wedding present?"  "Hmmm...how about a couple of those 48-packs of toilet paper from Costco?  That would be perfect!"   :awesomeface:
My thoughts exactly.  And I thought our wedding was done on the cheap... :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 24, 2020, 07:49:58 AM
Quote from: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 07:29:01 AM
Quote from: gonealookin on March 23, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them. 

Wait...what?!?!  "Honey, what are we going to give the Rockatanskys for a wedding present?"  "Hmmm...how about a couple of those 48-packs of toilet paper from Costco?  That would be perfect!"   :awesomeface:
My thoughts exactly.  And I thought our wedding was done on the cheap... :D

One of my college roommates gave me some TP as a law school graduation present, but it was a joke that had to do with an incident during our fourth year of college in which he did a study to determine who in our apartment was using too much TP so he could divide up the TP cost in proportion to the number of squares used. (I'll explain later if you care.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on March 24, 2020, 08:00:42 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 23, 2020, 02:16:28 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)

And U.S. consumers went right along with it.  It's always easier to blame Business than to look in a mirror, but businesses produce the goods and services their customers buy.  If U.S. consumers (including me; I'm as guilty as anyone else) insisted on paying the higher prices for U.S.-made goods, things would be a lot different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 24, 2020, 08:10:47 AM
Quote from: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 07:29:01 AM
Quote from: gonealookin on March 23, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them. 

Wait...what?!?!  "Honey, what are we going to give the Rockatanskys for a wedding present?"  "Hmmm...how about a couple of those 48-packs of toilet paper from Costco?  That would be perfect!"   :awesomeface:
My thoughts exactly.  And I thought our wedding was done on the cheap... :D

For what it's my wife encouraged cleaning supplies as gifts.  We even had a taco truck cater the wedding, it was only $1,500 to feed 220 people people.  At this point in our lives practicality is definitely way more of a priority I would say than getting fancy gifts or spending a ton of money on weddings. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on March 24, 2020, 09:16:14 AM
About the "18 month" Imperial College predictions, about the possibility of multiple waves of illness, one major problem I have with that study is that it makes the assumption that restrictions are fully lifted after a few months. Of course the virus will start returning if everything returns to normal at once! The study never considers what happens if we return to normal life gradually, i.e. if we start out by lifting some of the restrictions but not others. For example, maybe we'll have to wait this out until summer, but by doing so they're buying time to advance testing and identify cases more conclusively.

Perhaps, let's say, by September, jurisdictions will have become so confident with the testing that schools can reopen to non-infected staff and students with minimal risk of invoking spread, but everything else stays closed. Maybe in December, they can close schools for a month or so (under the pretext of an extended winter break?), but reopen malls and department stores--albeit likely with limited hours, etc.--and allow religious worship services for the Christmas season. Taking these kinds of measures would make for a good way to return to regular lifestyles while simultaneously curbing the virus and preventing a second wave. It's certainly better than the other extremes (either staying under lockdown until a vaccine is available, or completely resuming the status quo). What do you think?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 09:33:39 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on March 24, 2020, 09:16:14 AM
About the "18 month" Imperial College predictions, about the possibility of multiple waves of illness, one major problem I have with that study is that it makes the assumption that restrictions are fully lifted after a few months. Of course the virus will start returning if everything returns to normal at once! The study never considers what happens if we return to normal life gradually, i.e. if we start out by lifting some of the restrictions but not others. For example, maybe we'll have to wait this out until summer, but by doing so they're buying time to advance testing and identify cases more conclusively.

Perhaps, let's say, by September, jurisdictions will have become so confident with the testing that schools can reopen to non-infected staff and students with minimal risk of invoking spread, but everything else stays closed. Maybe in December, they can close schools for a month or so (under the pretext of an extended winter break?), but reopen malls and department stores--albeit likely with limited hours, etc.--and allow religious worship services for the Christmas season. Taking these kinds of measures would make for a good way to return to regular lifestyles while simultaneously curbing the virus and preventing a second wave. It's certainly better than the other extremes (either staying under lockdown until a vaccine is available, or completely resuming the status quo). What do you think?
Think about it in such a way: what kind of restrictions are used to slow down the process when there are 10s thousands infected in the country, and what kind of restrictions would work when there are only 10s cases. Hint: exponent would be the same in similar conditions. Just easing restrictions after wave subsides would just cause a new wave - and then another month of lockdown.

This is not just about restrictions, this is about new world order. "social distancing" seem to be weak suppression.
In particular, face masks should become a fashion - like one couldn't walk out without a hat for centuries, one would need a mask and underware in foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 24, 2020, 10:03:39 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 09:33:39 AM
In particular, face masks should become a fashion - like one couldn't walk out without a hat for centuries, one would need a mask and underware in foreseeable future.

Masks make it hard to blow a bubble with bubble gum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 10:17:46 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 24, 2020, 10:03:39 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 09:33:39 AM
In particular, face masks should become a fashion - like one couldn't walk out without a hat for centuries, one would need a mask and underware in foreseeable future.

Masks make it hard to blow a bubble with bubble gum.

Not a problem in Singapore - chewing gum is banned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 24, 2020, 10:36:31 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 24, 2020, 10:03:39 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 09:33:39 AM
In particular, face masks should become a fashion - like one couldn't walk out without a hat for centuries, one would need a mask and underware in foreseeable future.

Masks make it hard to blow a bubble with bubble gum.

Thoughts and prayers
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 11:19:21 AM
New world order? :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on March 24, 2020, 11:22:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 24, 2020, 10:03:39 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 09:33:39 AM
In particular, face masks should become a fashion - like one couldn't walk out without a hat for centuries, one would need a mask and underware in foreseeable future.

Masks make it hard to blow a bubble with bubble gum.

Just means you're going to have to get skilled in blowing smaller bubbles or learn to enjoy a slight cottony taste with your gum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:18 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 12:10:57 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 11:35:51 PM
The pandemic is also revealing an ugly side of American culture: the widespread acceptance of anti-Asian racism.

Calling it the "Chinese virus", as the president does, just emboldens the racists.
Needlessly too. You can talk objectively about the origins of the disease - no serious person doubts that the virus emerged in Wuhan/Hubei Province. But the political spin gives a proverbial "green light" for people to go an run with it.

So if I call the 1918 flu outbreak the Spanish flu, does that mean I'm against Spanish people? Of course not! That's what it's most commonly known as, and no one thinks twice about using the term.

There's nothing different about calling this the Chinese virus - that's where it came from!
Give me a break, if we were all practicing social distancing and staying 6 feet from others like we should be, there would be no such narrative to build. It's baffling that people don't seem to be able to call the virus what it is while also not being against Asian-Americans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:52 AM
Quote from: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 11:19:21 AM
New world order? :D

Must.Not.Snark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 24, 2020, 11:35:02 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:18 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 12:10:57 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 11:35:51 PM
The pandemic is also revealing an ugly side of American culture: the widespread acceptance of anti-Asian racism.

Calling it the "Chinese virus", as the president does, just emboldens the racists.
Needlessly too. You can talk objectively about the origins of the disease - no serious person doubts that the virus emerged in Wuhan/Hubei Province. But the political spin gives a proverbial "green light" for people to go an run with it.

So if I call the 1918 flu outbreak the Spanish flu, does that mean I'm against Spanish people? Of course not! That's what it's most commonly known as, and no one thinks twice about using the term.

There's nothing different about calling this the Chinese virus - that's where it came from!
Give me a break, if we were all practicing social distancing and staying 6 feet from others like we should be, there would be no such narrative to build. It's baffling that people don't seem to be able to call the virus what it is while also not being against Asian-Americans.

This is Corvid-19, despite what some pumpkin-hued politician says.  Or we could rename Swine Flu "American Flu" since it started in the U.S.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on March 24, 2020, 11:35:30 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:18 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 12:10:57 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 11:35:51 PM
The pandemic is also revealing an ugly side of American culture: the widespread acceptance of anti-Asian racism.

Calling it the "Chinese virus", as the president does, just emboldens the racists.
Needlessly too. You can talk objectively about the origins of the disease - no serious person doubts that the virus emerged in Wuhan/Hubei Province. But the political spin gives a proverbial "green light" for people to go an run with it.

So if I call the 1918 flu outbreak the Spanish flu, does that mean I'm against Spanish people? Of course not! That's what it's most commonly known as, and no one thinks twice about using the term.

There's nothing different about calling this the Chinese virus - that's where it came from!
Give me a break, if we were all practicing social distancing and staying 6 feet from others like we should be, there would be no such narrative to build. It's baffling that people don't seem to be able to call the virus what it is while also not being against Asian-Americans.

It would be interesting to see of there was a rash of retaliation against the Spanish back then.  Oh wait...that was commonplace back then before that flu outbreak. And after. And other groups.

But this is an interesting point nonetheless.  IMO this shouldn't be called the Chinese Virus AND that shouldn't be called the Spanish Flu.  That's why there are more official names.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 11:43:13 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:18 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 12:10:57 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 11:35:51 PM
The pandemic is also revealing an ugly side of American culture: the widespread acceptance of anti-Asian racism.

Calling it the "Chinese virus", as the president does, just emboldens the racists.
Needlessly too. You can talk objectively about the origins of the disease - no serious person doubts that the virus emerged in Wuhan/Hubei Province. But the political spin gives a proverbial "green light" for people to go an run with it.

So if I call the 1918 flu outbreak the Spanish flu, does that mean I'm against Spanish people? Of course not! That's what it's most commonly known as, and no one thinks twice about using the term.

There's nothing different about calling this the Chinese virus - that's where it came from!
Give me a break, if we were all practicing social distancing and staying 6 feet from others like we should be, there would be no such narrative to build. It's baffling that people don't seem to be able to call the virus what it is while also not being against Asian-Americans.
You are wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on March 24, 2020, 11:54:25 AM
And yet we have no issues every time the weather people geographically tag weather systems? How about food? Any whackjob can turn anything into something derogatory. Where can/do we draw the line? I suppose it's much easier to make a blanket policy than it is to look at the context of who said it and how.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 24, 2020, 11:58:08 AM
Quote from: US71 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:52 AM
Quote from: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 11:19:21 AM
New world order? :D

Must.Not.Snark.

Unless this NWO somehow involves Lizard People operating out of Denver International Airport then I'm afraid I must say our new overlords are kind boring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 24, 2020, 12:06:09 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:18 AMSo if I call the 1918 flu outbreak the Spanish flu, does that mean I'm against Spanish people? Of course not! That's what it's most commonly known as, and no one thinks twice about using the term.

Actually, I do.  I've been calling it "the 1918 flu," not "the Spanish flu."  Admittedly, I am hyper-aware of how it is labelled because the most popular origin theory for decades was that it transitioned from birds to humans along the Mississippi flyway in Kansas, but it has never made sense to me to name it after Spain simply because it was a neutral country in World War I and thus had the press freedom to report it as it was once it mutated into something really virulent.  And now there are multiple origin theories, some of which put it in China.

Quote from: webny99 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:18 AMThere's nothing different about calling this the Chinese virus - that's where it came from!

Give me a break, if we were all practicing social distancing and staying 6 feet from others like we should be, there would be no such narrative to build. It's baffling that people don't seem to be able to call the virus what it is while also not being against Asian-Americans.

"Chinese virus" is still a stigmatizing phrase, and its use by authority figures amounts to tacit condoning of animus against Chinese and other people of east Asian descent.  And, in any event, current practice is no longer to name diseases after countries of supposed origin or groups of first sufferers--Marburg virus is not in fact from Marburg an der Lahn, you don't have to be a member of the American Legion to get Legionnaires disease, etc.  Why would we make an exception for COVID-19?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 12:15:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 24, 2020, 11:31:18 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 12:10:57 AM
Quote from: Bruce on March 23, 2020, 11:35:51 PM
The pandemic is also revealing an ugly side of American culture: the widespread acceptance of anti-Asian racism.

Calling it the "Chinese virus", as the president does, just emboldens the racists.
Needlessly too. You can talk objectively about the origins of the disease - no serious person doubts that the virus emerged in Wuhan/Hubei Province. But the political spin gives a proverbial "green light" for people to go an run with it.

So if I call the 1918 flu outbreak the Spanish flu, does that mean I'm against Spanish people? Of course not! That's what it's most commonly known as, and no one thinks twice about using the term.

There's nothing different about calling this the Chinese virus - that's where it came from!
Give me a break, if we were all practicing social distancing and staying 6 feet from others like we should be, there would be no such narrative to build. It's baffling that people don't seem to be able to call the virus what it is while also not being against
Asian-Americans.

Frankly speaking, Spanish flu settled over time and has little if any negative connotation.
Chinese virus was explicitly used to direct certain emotions, as COVID and coronavirus are common terms at this point. Given pretty strong anti-chinese policies and opinions, this adds up badly. US will pay a price for that. Actually, I think we're already paying - hospitals are collapsing without primitive equipment, and CHina is helping Italy, while not sending planeloads of stuff to US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 24, 2020, 12:40:19 PM
Certain politicians and media outlets only made it a big point once it became obvious that the disease would take off in the US. They needed a diversionary tactic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: dvferyance on March 24, 2020, 12:44:12 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 23, 2020, 02:16:28 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)
None the  less those jobs were lost to China. In fact right now we are relying on the Chinese for face mask and respirators. I don't see how that is a good thing. We need to make our own stuff and stop relying on other countries for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 12:48:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 24, 2020, 12:44:12 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 23, 2020, 02:16:28 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)
None the  less those jobs were lost to China. In fact right now we are relying on the Chinese for face mask and respirators. I don't see how that is a good thing. We need to make our own stuff and stop relying on other countries for it.
US labor is very expensive - in line with high living standards. While justified for high-end product, like planes, it makes a lot of low-tech stuff prohibitively expensive compared to competitors. Globalization strikes back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 24, 2020, 12:55:18 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 12:48:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 24, 2020, 12:44:12 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on March 23, 2020, 02:16:28 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 22, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 21, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on March 21, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.
Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)
None the  less those jobs were lost to China. In fact right now we are relying on the Chinese for face mask and respirators. I don't see how that is a good thing. We need to make our own stuff and stop relying on other countries for it.
US labor is very expensive - in line with high living standards. While justified for high-end product, like planes, it makes a lot of low-tech stuff prohibitively expensive compared to competitors. Globalization strikes back.

More so, how many people these days State Side really want to work in industrial jobs?  The decline of American Manufacturing began from middle of the 20th Century and has continued to this day.  The shift falls totally in line with the U.S. becoming far more of a consumer society than a producer.  American consumers expect to pay low prices but American workers won't work for low wages.  That directly causes manufacturers to seek new territory where the price of doing business can remains low.  It would take a massive change in lifestyles of the average American for things to start trending towards manufacturing.  Worse, as a society we sorely lack a skilled workforce that we once had. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on March 24, 2020, 01:02:08 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 24, 2020, 02:46:06 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 22, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 22, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM


I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.
I have both Mexican and Chinese guitars, and they are all excellent. The days when American guitars were a lot better than guitars that are made elsewhere are over.

U304AA

No Paul Reed Smith guitars (imported from Stevensville, Maryland) available in Oklahoma?

https://www.prsguitars.com/

https://www.prsguitars.com/about/

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Paul+Reed+Smith+Guitars/@38.9884762,-76.3140652,732m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x89b81b1fc65d283f:0x7752e14804a0b264!8m2!3d38.9881997!4d-76.3149753

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 01:03:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 24, 2020, 12:55:18 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 12:48:35 PM
US labor is very expensive - in line with high living standards. While justified for high-end product, like planes, it makes a lot of low-tech stuff prohibitively expensive compared to competitors. Globalization strikes back.

More so, how many people these days State Side really want to work in industrial jobs?  The decline of American Manufacturing began from middle of the 20th Century and has continued to this day.  The shift falls totally in line with the U.S. becoming far more of a consumer society than a producer.  American consumers expect to pay low prices but American workers won't work for low wages.  That directly causes manufacturers to seek new territory where the price of doing business can remains low.  It would take a massive change in lifestyles of the average American for things to start trending towards manufacturing.  Worse, as a society we sorely lack a skilled workforce that we once had.
Thanks. I had same thing written in pretty rude terms in my post, an choosen not to post that part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 24, 2020, 02:12:28 PM
All SF Bay Area bridges have recently suspended their cash collection. (https://dot.ca.gov/news-releases/news-release-2020-006) Wonder if this will be a precedent for the Bay Area Toll Authority to switch to All-Electronic Tolling on the other bridges, like how the Golden Gate Bridge has been AET since 2013...

EDIT: All of the Bay Area express lanes are also open to all drivers as the MTC is also suspending express lane tolling until 7th April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 24, 2020, 02:35:44 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 24, 2020, 11:19:21 AM
New world order? :D

(https://cdn.sescoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WWE-Encyclopedia2026-a62b574a8fbbf69d7177694b35989384-2-696x392.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM
After the outbreak of MERS in 2012, the WHO determined that using geography-based names for worldwide diseases caused negative reactions (if not outright racism), so they barred it from being used officially. COVID-19 is the first major disease to come under these new guidelines.

The "Spanish flu" is misnamed and outdated in use, and should be referred to as the 1918 outbreak instead. Retroactively renaming things is fine for other fields, so why not disease?

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 24, 2020, 03:49:26 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM
Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

He should proceed very carefully because if this pandemic explodes in the United States, it could be rebranded the TrumpVirus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 04:05:37 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
I can't remember the last time I needed a shopping cart at a regular grocery store.  Usually all I ever go for is; something my wife wants, a 32oz Poweraid I need for a long run, or fried chicken from the deli.  The grocery store isn't so bad compared to the horrors I've seen inflicted upon shopping carts at places like Walmart and Target.

I've definitely been to those stores when I was out; my local store tends to get expensive because of the property values and that they do have a parking lot (fairly expensive to own in a dense area). But day to day, it's easier for me to just pop over to the store (literally a six minute walk), grab a couple things, and then walk out. Luckily, most people in the area operate the same way, so there hasn't been a hoarding mentality like at Walmart or Target (where everyone is in such a rush, they forget basic sanitary rules like wiping cart handles!), which has made it so they have only been out of TP (lol) and for like one afternoon, hot dog buns. Everything is back to normal now, apart from TP still being gone by noon.

Now, credit where credit's due: those who went to the big-box stores and started hoarding likely haven't been back to those stores in a while, whereas I've continued to go every other day. But apart from being near other people, I've tried to take reasonable precautionary measures (as mentioned before) so that I don't have to stock up...not that I have room in my tiny apartment-sized refrigerator to stock up anyways.

Quote from: gonealookin on March 23, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 23, 2020, 10:44:08 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on March 23, 2020, 10:33:40 PM
Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them. 

Wait...what?!?!  "Honey, what are we going to give the Rockatanskys for a wedding present?"  "Hmmm...how about a couple of those 48-packs of toilet paper from Costco?  That would be perfect!"   :awesomeface:

Side note: "Rockatansky" would be a great surname (if only George Miller hadn't thought of it first!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 04:08:00 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 24, 2020, 03:49:26 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM
Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

He should proceed very carefully because if this pandemic explodes in the United States, it could be rebranded the TrumpVirus.

Particularly if A) the economy completely collapses, B) he forces the country back open (to avoid economic collapse) and infection/death rates skyrocket, or C) both/either of those things combined with him not getting re-elected (not a great legacy; the electorate does not forget poor executive leadership -- recall James Buchanan).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 24, 2020, 04:50:46 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 04:08:00 PM
recall James Buchanan).

well, I dunno about you, but he was a tad before my time  ;-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 04:54:55 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.
A naming convention is just that - naming convention. History knows examples when higher-ups deviation from those conventions ended up official. SR-71 comes to mind.
It is about intention of such naming, which is questionable
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 24, 2020, 05:04:57 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 04:54:55 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.
A naming convention is just that - naming convention. History knows examples when higher-ups deviation from those conventions ended up official. SR-71 comes to mind.
It is about intention of such naming, which is questionable

A "naming convention" , like the N word? Or calling someone "Retard" ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 05:05:35 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 24, 2020, 04:50:46 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 04:08:00 PM
recall James Buchanan).

well, I dunno about you, but he was a tad before my time  ;-)

Yeah, I guess. Point being that history remembers the morons. Although they can sometimes be overshadowed by relative gods (Abe Lincoln in Buchanan's case).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 24, 2020, 05:08:19 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM
Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

Or he's paying attention to, and trying to counter, the China government's efforts to blame us for the virus that seems to have started there.

But another thing wrong with "Chinese virus" -- what if another deadly virus later comes out of China? What do we call that one, to avoid confusion with the current virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 05:32:19 PM
Quote from: oscar on March 24, 2020, 05:08:19 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM
Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

Or he's paying attention to, and trying to counter, the China government's efforts to blame us for the virus that seems to have started there.

But another thing wrong with "Chinese virus" -- what if another deadly virus later comes out of China? What do we call that one, to avoid confusion with the current virus?
I suspect that if "wuhan virus" stuck from the beginning, nobody would really object. But by now, things are already settled - and accepted wording is  NOT "chinese" or "wuhan"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on March 24, 2020, 07:26:08 PM
From Taiwannews.com.tw:

A National Taiwan University (NTU) professor on Saturday (Feb. 22) said the virus is likely man-made, based on its unusual structure. At a seminar on the coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab).

At a seminar on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab). He said that what is known is that there are many deadly viruses being researched in the facility, such as SARS and Ebola, and that China's track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.

Fang said that COVID-19 is 96 percent similar to the bat virus RaTG13, which is known to be housed at the lab. Fang said that this in itself is not a smoking gun, as a genetic similarity of 99 percent would be required to declare them to be the same.

He said that a French team investigating COVID-19 had found that the key difference between RaTG13 and COVID-19 was that the latter has four additional amino acids not found in any other coronaviruses. Fang said that these four amino acids make the disease easier to transmit.

Fang said that the French team's findings had led some in the scientific community to speculate that Chinese scientists thought the SARS outbreak 17 years ago was too easy to deal with, so they developed an "upgraded version."  He said that with modern technology, such an "upgrade"  is theoretically possible.

The professor said that viruses normally only have small mutations in the form of singular changes in natural conditions. He asserted that in nature, it is "unlikely to have four amino acids added at once."

Fang concluded, "Therefore, from an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans."  He said that it is also still possible that this occurred in nature but that "the chances are very slim."

Fang stressed that the mutations found in the novel coronavirus are "unusual in an academic sense."  He asserted that "It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product."

He said that it would be critical to conduct an internal investigation of the records at BSL-4 Lab. However, given the opaque nature of the current regime in Beijing, he said such a public inquest into the lab's records looks highly unlikely in the near future.

On the positive side, Fang said that if it is an artificially generated virus, it means it does not occur naturally in the ecosystem. Therefore, after the last patient is cured, it should not become a seasonal illness such as the flu, which is generated naturally in the environment.

However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Feb. 1 refuted a similar theory being circulated that it was "bioweapon"  created by the U.S., saying the addition of the aforementioned four amino acids is not as "critical"  as some in the Chinese media had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.

He also noted that the four insertions in the spike glycoproteins that Indian authors described as unique to COVID-19 are not unusual in the results for pBLAST (an algorithm for comparing primary biological sequence information).

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 07:32:06 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on March 24, 2020, 07:26:08 PM
From Taiwannews.com.tw:

A National Taiwan University (NTU) professor on Saturday (Feb. 22) said the virus is likely man-made, based on its unusual structure. At a seminar on the coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab).

At a seminar on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab). He said that what is known is that there are many deadly viruses being researched in the facility, such as SARS and Ebola, and that China's track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.

Fang said that COVID-19 is 96 percent similar to the bat virus RaTG13, which is known to be housed at the lab. Fang said that this in itself is not a smoking gun, as a genetic similarity of 99 percent would be required to declare them to be the same.

He said that a French team investigating COVID-19 had found that the key difference between RaTG13 and COVID-19 was that the latter has four additional amino acids not found in any other coronaviruses. Fang said that these four amino acids make the disease easier to transmit.

Fang said that the French team's findings had led some in the scientific community to speculate that Chinese scientists thought the SARS outbreak 17 years ago was too easy to deal with, so they developed an "upgraded version."  He said that with modern technology, such an "upgrade"  is theoretically possible.

The professor said that viruses normally only have small mutations in the form of singular changes in natural conditions. He asserted that in nature, it is "unlikely to have four amino acids added at once."

Fang concluded, "Therefore, from an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans."  He said that it is also still possible that this occurred in nature but that "the chances are very slim."

Fang stressed that the mutations found in the novel coronavirus are "unusual in an academic sense."  He asserted that "It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product."

He said that it would be critical to conduct an internal investigation of the records at BSL-4 Lab. However, given the opaque nature of the current regime in Beijing, he said such a public inquest into the lab's records looks highly unlikely in the near future.

On the positive side, Fang said that if it is an artificially generated virus, it means it does not occur naturally in the ecosystem. Therefore, after the last patient is cured, it should not become a seasonal illness such as the flu, which is generated naturally in the environment.

However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Feb. 1 refuted a similar theory being circulated that it was "bioweapon"  created by the U.S., saying the addition of the aforementioned four amino acids is not as "critical"  as some in the Chinese media had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.

He also noted that the four insertions in the spike glycoproteins that Indian authors described as unique to COVID-19 are not unusual in the results for pBLAST (an algorithm for comparing primary biological sequence information).

Rick
The bare minumum for such a claim would be a link to a presentation and/or paper describing "unusual structure"
Without that, Dr. Fang just reduced the life expectancy of Taiwan as a standalone entity by a little bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 07:36:46 PM
We shouldn't repost articles without full attribution and vetting. This one is a month old, has only been re-transmitted once by a non-Taiwanese source (to the Independent, who have loose editorial guidelines), and has not been followed up. I think it's safe to say that his theory is not accepted among experts in the field.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 24, 2020, 08:08:00 PM
NC Gov. Roy Cooper has asked Trump for a major disaster declaration for the state.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19 (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 24, 2020, 08:25:51 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200325/5ce40ab2acab288d0afe49226a5eef05.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on March 24, 2020, 09:04:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 04:05:37 PM
I've definitely been to those stores when I was out; my local store tends to get expensive because of the property values and that they do have a parking lot (fairly expensive to own in a dense area). But day to day, it's easier for me to just pop over to the store (literally a six minute walk), grab a couple things, and then walk out. Luckily, most people in the area operate the same way, so there hasn't been a hoarding mentality like at Walmart or Target (where everyone is in such a rush, they forget basic sanitary rules like wiping cart handles!), which has made it so they have only been out of TP (lol) and for like one afternoon, hot dog buns. Everything is back to normal now, apart from TP still being gone by noon.
I wish things were back to normal here.  I'd like to think they're getting better, though; I was able to get my grocery shopping done at "only" two stores and in "only" an hour tonight, albeit with some compromises on what I buy (down from 2 hours at 4-5 stores for the previous two weeks, though).  I think this is also the first time I managed to get soup and frozen corn at Hannaford since the panic buying began (and the bread aisle looked more full and the parking lot more empty than usual for our new normal).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ErmineNotyours on March 24, 2020, 09:46:37 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 24, 2020, 08:25:51 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200325/5ce40ab2acab288d0afe49226a5eef05.jpg)

The antithesis of a square meal a day?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 24, 2020, 09:51:25 PM
Can you spare a square?

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 10:03:26 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 24, 2020, 09:04:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 04:05:37 PM
I've definitely been to those stores when I was out; my local store tends to get expensive because of the property values and that they do have a parking lot (fairly expensive to own in a dense area). But day to day, it's easier for me to just pop over to the store (literally a six minute walk), grab a couple things, and then walk out. Luckily, most people in the area operate the same way, so there hasn't been a hoarding mentality like at Walmart or Target (where everyone is in such a rush, they forget basic sanitary rules like wiping cart handles!), which has made it so they have only been out of TP (lol) and for like one afternoon, hot dog buns. Everything is back to normal now, apart from TP still being gone by noon.
I wish things were back to normal here.  I'd like to think they're getting better, though; I was able to get my grocery shopping done at "only" two stores and in "only" an hour tonight, albeit with some compromises on what I buy (down from 2 hours at 4-5 stores for the previous two weeks, though).  I think this is also the first time I managed to get soup and frozen corn at Hannaford since the panic buying began (and the bread aisle looked more full and the parking lot more empty than usual for our new normal).

I've been hearing stories like that. Once it became apparent on my recent visit that hot dog buns were gone, I was faced with two options: fish out another store that might have them (unlikely since panic buying was become a serious problem for a couple days), or accept eating hot dogs without the buns. Needless to say, the latter was far more attractive. Especially as my car keys were in my apartment and I didn't feel like walking back up there, just so I could find another store that would likely be out of buns as well).

Now that WA is a "stay home" state, the streets have gotten significantly quieter, but the grocery stores seem a tad busier as some restaurants choose to close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 24, 2020, 10:07:55 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 24, 2020, 08:08:00 PM
NC governor has asked Trump for a major disaster declaration for the state.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19 (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19)

Do they have any casinos?  </sarc>
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on March 25, 2020, 12:09:07 AM
Quote from: ixnay on March 24, 2020, 01:02:08 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 24, 2020, 02:46:06 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 22, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 22, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 22, 2020, 05:59:16 PM


I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.
I have both Mexican and Chinese guitars, and they are all excellent. The days when American guitars were a lot better than guitars that are made elsewhere are over.

U304AA

No Paul Reed Smith guitars (imported from Stevensville, Maryland) available in Oklahoma?

https://www.prsguitars.com/

https://www.prsguitars.com/about/

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Paul+Reed+Smith+Guitars/@38.9884762,-76.3140652,732m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x89b81b1fc65d283f:0x7752e14804a0b264!8m2!3d38.9881997!4d-76.3149753

ixnay
PRS guitars are available here, but they are quite expensive. The US-built ones are even more expensive. I have never paid more than $500 on a guitar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on March 25, 2020, 12:13:03 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 24, 2020, 07:32:06 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on March 24, 2020, 07:26:08 PM
From Taiwannews.com.tw:

A National Taiwan University (NTU) professor on Saturday (Feb. 22) said the virus is likely man-made, based on its unusual structure. At a seminar on the coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab).

At a seminar on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab). He said that what is known is that there are many deadly viruses being researched in the facility, such as SARS and Ebola, and that China's track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.

Fang said that COVID-19 is 96 percent similar to the bat virus RaTG13, which is known to be housed at the lab. Fang said that this in itself is not a smoking gun, as a genetic similarity of 99 percent would be required to declare them to be the same.

He said that a French team investigating COVID-19 had found that the key difference between RaTG13 and COVID-19 was that the latter has four additional amino acids not found in any other coronaviruses. Fang said that these four amino acids make the disease easier to transmit.

Fang said that the French team's findings had led some in the scientific community to speculate that Chinese scientists thought the SARS outbreak 17 years ago was too easy to deal with, so they developed an "upgraded version."  He said that with modern technology, such an "upgrade"  is theoretically possible.

The professor said that viruses normally only have small mutations in the form of singular changes in natural conditions. He asserted that in nature, it is "unlikely to have four amino acids added at once."

Fang concluded, "Therefore, from an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans."  He said that it is also still possible that this occurred in nature but that "the chances are very slim."

Fang stressed that the mutations found in the novel coronavirus are "unusual in an academic sense."  He asserted that "It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product."

He said that it would be critical to conduct an internal investigation of the records at BSL-4 Lab. However, given the opaque nature of the current regime in Beijing, he said such a public inquest into the lab's records looks highly unlikely in the near future.

On the positive side, Fang said that if it is an artificially generated virus, it means it does not occur naturally in the ecosystem. Therefore, after the last patient is cured, it should not become a seasonal illness such as the flu, which is generated naturally in the environment.

However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Feb. 1 refuted a similar theory being circulated that it was "bioweapon"  created by the U.S., saying the addition of the aforementioned four amino acids is not as "critical"  as some in the Chinese media had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.

He also noted that the four insertions in the spike glycoproteins that Indian authors described as unique to COVID-19 are not unusual in the results for pBLAST (an algorithm for comparing primary biological sequence information).

Rick
The bare minumum for such a claim would be a link to a presentation and/or paper describing "unusual structure"
Without that, Dr. Fang just reduced the life expectancy of Taiwan as a standalone entity by a little bit.


Just for the sake of argument, let's say the biolab in Wuhan was working on a WMD.  They got the highly contagious part right.  What was missing is a much deadlier payload  If that part of the deal had been done, we would be looking at "The Stand" taking place for real!

Also consider what the reaction would be if the PRC truly did the deed.  There would be something truly severe taking place in retaliation.   

Now as to how valid of a claim the Taiwanese scientist made, let's look at who he is accusing.  The People's Republic of China is a known bad actor.  If you or anyone else here wants to put their faith in the PRC's good will and pure intentions, be my guest!

The PRC is to us what the German Empire was to the British Empire prior to the Great War.  That's a "great power struggle" comparison.  There is always someone looking to dethrone the top dog!  One can then add in a similar perfidy and willingness to push a la Imperial Japan prior to their attack on Pearl Harbor. 

Better keep a close eye on China. 

Rick

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 01:54:08 AM
The daily death toll from the virus in the US has been 100 or greater for three days running.  Although we are locking down, I do not expect to see it back under 100 for at least two months, maybe three.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 25, 2020, 03:34:34 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 01:54:08 AM
The daily death toll from the virus in the US has been 100 or greater for three days running.  Although we are locking down, I do not expect to see it back under 100 for at least two months, maybe three.
And that is 1% increase over the normal average. Probably at least somewhat offset by decrease in road deaths, which are normally about 100 daily as well . 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 25, 2020, 07:42:41 AM
Push alert from the BBC this morning says HRH the Prince of Wales tested positive and has mild symptoms. He's gone into self-quarantine somewhere in Scotland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 25, 2020, 12:01:24 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM
After the outbreak of MERS in 2012, the WHO determined that using geography-based names for worldwide diseases caused negative reactions (if not outright racism), so they barred it from being used officially. COVID-19 is the first major disease to come under these new guidelines.

The "Spanish flu" is misnamed and outdated in use, and should be referred to as the 1918 outbreak instead. Retroactively renaming things is fine for other fields, so why not disease?

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.


I know some microbiology books have renamed 1918 Spanish Flu to 1918 Influenza Pandemic in recent years though.


https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-ohio-dewine-says-virus-peak-could-be-roughly-around-may-1/ (https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-ohio-dewine-says-virus-peak-could-be-roughly-around-may-1/)


Now there is Speculation that COVID-19 might peak in the USA between April and May. Note this is just preliminary investigation as states have issued Stay at home orders.


Also there are deaths by Chloroquine overdoses as there have been claims that Chloroquine is a cure of COVID-19. But by the time I looked I heard stuff that Chloroquine is just named as a candidate for clinical testing along with various COVID-19 vaccine candidates for clinical testing.


https://www.wistv.com/2020/03/24/arizona-death-prompts-warning-against-using-chloroquine-phosphate-treatment-coronavirus/ (https://www.wistv.com/2020/03/24/arizona-death-prompts-warning-against-using-chloroquine-phosphate-treatment-coronavirus/)




https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/nigeria-has-chloroquine-poisonings-after-trump-praised-drug/ar-BB11wxMQ (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/nigeria-has-chloroquine-poisonings-after-trump-praised-drug/ar-BB11wxMQ)


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/tracking-development-coronavirus-treatments-n1166691 (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/tracking-development-coronavirus-treatments-n1166691)




https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/03/25/covid-19-coronavirus-drug-vir-biotechnology.html (https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/03/25/covid-19-coronavirus-drug-vir-biotechnology.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 25, 2020, 12:17:24 PM
Quote from: bing101 on March 25, 2020, 12:01:24 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 24, 2020, 03:30:22 PM
After the outbreak of MERS in 2012, the WHO determined that using geography-based names for worldwide diseases caused negative reactions (if not outright racism), so they barred it from being used officially. COVID-19 is the first major disease to come under these new guidelines.

The "Spanish flu" is misnamed and outdated in use, and should be referred to as the 1918 outbreak instead. Retroactively renaming things is fine for other fields, so why not disease?

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.


I know some microbiology books have renamed 1918 Spanish Flu to 1918 Influenza Pandemic in recent years though.

My problem with such a change - maybe personal one  is that numbers stapled to events tend to mix up in my head.
Was it nineteen eighteen pandemic or eighteen ninety pandemic? And since there may be a complex link between the two...
Somewhat similar problem with hurricanes is solved by naming - Katrina or Sandy rings the bell quite well, as well as Labor Day hurricane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 25, 2020, 12:20:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 10:03:26 PM
I've been hearing stories like that. Once it became apparent on my recent visit that hot dog buns were gone, I was faced with two options: fish out another store that might have them (unlikely since panic buying was become a serious problem for a couple days), or accept eating hot dogs without the buns. Needless to say, the latter was far more attractive. Especially as my car keys were in my apartment and I didn't feel like walking back up there, just so I could find another store that would likely be out of buns as well).

Buns were a luxury when I was growing up. We ate hot dogs on regular light bread. Hamburgers, too.

Quote from: 1995hoo on March 24, 2020, 08:25:51 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200325/5ce40ab2acab288d0afe49226a5eef05.jpg)

I actually thought about resubscribing to the Lexington Herald-Leader and getting print subscriptions to the New York Times and Washington Post if there was a prolonged shortage of bathroom stationery. That's about all those papers are fit for.




I went to the office yesterday, mainly so I could make a Walmart run at lunch and pick up a few other things. The 1985-vintage Walmart had no paper towels and only a few packages of toilet paper. No bleach, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes, or Lysol-type spray. Other than that, they were well-stocked on pretty much everything else, including the meager selection of groceries that they normally carry. Not a lot of traffic in the store and there was no wait to check out. A few customers were wearing masks, including one woman who was coming out of the store when I went in and had two cases of beer in her buggy. Gotta keep plenty of the essentials on hand, I guess.

After work, I went to both the Family Dollar and Dollar General stores for a few other items. No toilet paper and a picked-over selection of paper towels at Family Dollar. Dollar General had plenty of toilet paper, and even had several boxes on a cart outside in front of the store. Very light traffic at both of those stores as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 25, 2020, 01:38:52 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 25, 2020, 12:20:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 10:03:26 PM
I've been hearing stories like that. Once it became apparent on my recent visit that hot dog buns were gone, I was faced with two options: fish out another store that might have them (unlikely since panic buying was become a serious problem for a couple days), or accept eating hot dogs without the buns. Needless to say, the latter was far more attractive. Especially as my car keys were in my apartment and I didn't feel like walking back up there, just so I could find another store that would likely be out of buns as well.

Buns were a luxury when I was growing up. We ate hot dogs on regular light bread. Hamburgers, too.

My grandmother mentioned the same thing to me. I recall being at her house once when we were making hot dogs, and she realized that they were out of hot dog buns. Without skipping a beat, she just pulled out regular bread. I was momentarily taken aback by such heresy; as it turns out, we just grew up in two different eras, and mine happens to have hot dog buns in plentiful supply relative to her upbringing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 25, 2020, 01:53:38 PM
Those "New England" style hot dog buns are basically just bread anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 02:47:43 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 25, 2020, 01:38:52 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 25, 2020, 12:20:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 10:03:26 PM
I've been hearing stories like that. Once it became apparent on my recent visit that hot dog buns were gone, I was faced with two options: fish out another store that might have them (unlikely since panic buying was become a serious problem for a couple days), or accept eating hot dogs without the buns. Needless to say, the latter was far more attractive. Especially as my car keys were in my apartment and I didn't feel like walking back up there, just so I could find another store that would likely be out of buns as well.

Buns were a luxury when I was growing up. We ate hot dogs on regular light bread. Hamburgers, too.

My grandmother mentioned the same thing to me. I recall being at her house once when we were making hot dogs, and she realized that they were out of hot dog buns. Without skipping a beat, she just pulled out regular bread. I was momentarily taken aback by such heresy; as it turns out, we just grew up in two different eras, and mine happens to have hot dog buns in plentiful supply relative to her upbringing.

The regular bread with hot dogs was incredibly common among older generations in Metro Detroit in the 1980s.  A lot of people way more frugal if they grew up before World War II and would buy almost everything on bargain basement prices.  I remember people would try to make things like clothes and furniture last as long as possible.  My Grandpa's couch was apparently close to 35 years old when we tossed it since it was mummified in plastic which preserved it like an Egyptian Pharaoh.  Getting by with what you can and making things last definitely isn't the forte of many recent generations. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 02:50:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 25, 2020, 03:34:34 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 01:54:08 AMThe daily death toll from the virus in the US has been 100 or greater for three days running.  Although we are locking down, I do not expect to see it back under 100 for at least two months, maybe three.

And that is 1% increase over the normal average. Probably at least somewhat offset by decrease in road deaths, which are normally about 100 daily as well.

All of that is true.  My concern is that deaths are still on an upward trajectory and will remain so for some time after the various lockdowns start to bite.  And even with the limited testing we are doing, there are still about 62,000 confirmed cases (disproportionately sampled from the more serious ones) and the number is still doubling every two days or so, so there are going to be plenty of new cases to feed the beast.

The rate of growth in confirmed cases in Italy has been under 10% for the past three days, and although daily deaths have not been dropping monotonically, the daily increase in total deaths is also slowing down and was 10% over the last 24 hours.

My thinking is that New York is on a similar trajectory, for similar reasons--northern Italy had the super-spreader who went to a football game, and NYC has been bedevilled by that super-spreading event in Westport, Connecticut--and things are going to get a lot worse before they start to get better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 25, 2020, 02:54:12 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 02:50:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 25, 2020, 03:34:34 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 01:54:08 AMThe daily death toll from the virus in the US has been 100 or greater for three days running.  Although we are locking down, I do not expect to see it back under 100 for at least two months, maybe three.

And that is 1% increase over the normal average. Probably at least somewhat offset by decrease in road deaths, which are normally about 100 daily as well.

All of that is true.  My concern is that deaths are still on an upward trajectory and will remain so for some time after the various lockdowns start to bite.  And even with the limited testing we are doing, there are still about 62,000 confirmed cases (disproportionately sampled from the more serious ones) and the number is still doubling every two days or so, so there are going to be plenty of new cases to feed the beast.

The rate of growth in confirmed cases in Italy has been under 10% for the past three days, and although daily deaths have not been dropping monotonically, the daily increase in total deaths is also slowing down and was 10% over the last 24 hours.

My thinking is that New York is on a similar trajectory, for similar reasons--northern Italy had the super-spreader who went to a football game, and NYC has been bedevilled by that super-spreading event in Westport, Connecticut--and things are going to get a lot worse before they start to get better.
Of course, worst is still to come. But it is projections and trends which make me pani feel uncomfortable. Present US numbers - well, color me unimpressed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 25, 2020, 04:03:16 PM
Norman, OK is under a shelter-in-place order, leaving only permitted to go to the grocery store, on an odd-even schedule much like water rationing (addresses ending in an odd number can only go to the grocery store on odd-numbered days).

This is going to be interesting if it continues much longer, since it will begin to overlap with Oklahoma tornado season.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 02:47:43 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 25, 2020, 01:38:52 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 25, 2020, 12:20:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 24, 2020, 10:03:26 PM
I've been hearing stories like that. Once it became apparent on my recent visit that hot dog buns were gone, I was faced with two options: fish out another store that might have them (unlikely since panic buying was become a serious problem for a couple days), or accept eating hot dogs without the buns. Needless to say, the latter was far more attractive. Especially as my car keys were in my apartment and I didn't feel like walking back up there, just so I could find another store that would likely be out of buns as well.

Buns were a luxury when I was growing up. We ate hot dogs on regular light bread. Hamburgers, too.

My grandmother mentioned the same thing to me. I recall being at her house once when we were making hot dogs, and she realized that they were out of hot dog buns. Without skipping a beat, she just pulled out regular bread. I was momentarily taken aback by such heresy; as it turns out, we just grew up in two different eras, and mine happens to have hot dog buns in plentiful supply relative to her upbringing.

The regular bread with hot dogs was incredibly common among older generations in Metro Detroit in the 1980s.  A lot of people way more frugal if they grew up before World War II and would buy almost everything on bargain basement prices.  I remember people would try to make things like clothes and furniture last as long as possible.  My Grandpa's couch was apparently close to 35 years old when we tossed it since it was mummified in plastic which preserved it like an Egyptian Pharaoh.  Getting by with what you can and making things last definitely isn't the forte of many recent generations. 

I always use regular bread for hot dogs because by the time I feel like eating six hot dogs the buns will have gotten moldy. I can use the bread faster because it can be used for more things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 25, 2020, 04:17:52 PM
https://www.fox9.com/news/minnesota-gov-tim-walz-issues-statewide-stay-at-home-order-amid-covid-19-pandemic


Update State of Minnesota has issued a stay at home order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 25, 2020, 05:22:41 PM
VA and NC governors are being pressured to issue stay-at-home orders. So far, they've been reluctant to do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 25, 2020, 06:12:11 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 25, 2020, 05:22:41 PM
VA and NC governors are being pressured to issue stay-at-home orders. So far, they've been reluctant to do it.

So the media pressure increases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 25, 2020, 06:23:25 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 25, 2020, 05:22:41 PM
VA and NC governors are being pressured to issue stay-at-home orders. So far, they've been reluctant to do it.
I'd say give it a few days. With Northam pressing down on more restriction, I can see him issuing the order as the next step. Pressure worked the first time, it will work again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 25, 2020, 06:29:23 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 25, 2020, 06:23:25 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 25, 2020, 05:22:41 PM
VA and NC governors are being pressured to issue stay-at-home orders. So far, they've been reluctant to do it.
I'd say give it a few days. With Northam pressing down on more restriction, I can see him issuing the order as the next step. Pressure worked the first time, it will work again.

Agreed. In NC, Cooper is being pressured by doctors and hospitals. Several cities and counties in NC have already issued stay-at-home orders, so he'll probably cave as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 06:36:30 PM
I'm looking at making a run up to the New Idria Mine for some off the grid "social distancing"  in a long abandoned ghost town.  So far I'm in talks with two people bring to take individual vehicles up there which probably would be helpful given the road might require someone carry a winch.  I figure at this point that is about safest bet to get some recreation in that isn't going to piss off the world outside the darkest corners of the Mojave Desert.  Personally I'd rather deal with mercury laden streams and naturally occurring asbestos than sitting around reading constant news headlines. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on March 25, 2020, 06:46:21 PM
Yesterday the state of Utah delayed all non-essential surgeries by at least a month. Today, Summit County has issued a full stay-at-home order with exceptions for essential services, becoming the first jurisdiction in Utah to do so. I'm hoping none of the Wasatch Front counties do anything similar until after this Friday, as I'm planning to clinch a few remaining roads in the SLC metro area on that day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 06:48:15 PM
Quote from: US 89 on March 25, 2020, 06:46:21 PM
Summit County has issued a full stay-at-home order with exception for essential services, becoming the first jurisdiction in Utah to do so. I'm hoping none of the Wasatch Front counties do anything similar until after this Friday, as I'm planning to clinch a few remaining roads in the SLC metro area on that day.

Would that actually even stop you from doing that?  Most of these orders coming out don't necessarily would stop the concept of road clinching provided you didn't interact with anyone. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on March 25, 2020, 07:13:02 PM
Some Kansas City barbecue joints use plain white bread instead of buns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on March 25, 2020, 07:14:17 PM
They need to stop giving hurricanes human names. The name Katrina has been ruined for a couple of generations because of the hurricane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on March 25, 2020, 07:17:08 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 25, 2020, 07:14:17 PM
They need to stop giving hurricanes human names. The name Katrina has been ruined for a couple of generations because of the hurricane.

My name (David) was retired in 1979. Many names have been retired, and they haven't gone away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 25, 2020, 07:33:38 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 25, 2020, 07:17:08 PM
Quote from: bugo on March 25, 2020, 07:14:17 PM
They need to stop giving hurricanes human names. The name Katrina has been ruined for a couple of generations because of the hurricane.

My name (David) was retired in 1979. Many names have been retired, and they haven't gone away.

Camille has also been retired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 07:53:14 PM
Kansas still doesn't have a statewide lockdown, but my county (Sedgwick) has had one since midnight last night.  I went out to wash the cars--it was sunny and warm (almost 80° F), so it was time to get rid of the last bits of salt residue clinging to the underbodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 25, 2020, 07:58:30 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 07:53:14 PM
Kansas still doesn't have a statewide lockdown, but my county (Sedgwick) has had one since midnight last night.  I went out to wash the cars--it was sunny and warm (almost 80° F), so it was time to get rid of the last bits of salt residue clinging to the underbodies.

Arkansas doesn't either. Pulaski County (Little Rock) seems to have it worst so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 25, 2020, 08:13:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 06:48:15 PM
Would that actually even stop you from doing that?

No. I went to Cincinnati today, and I noticed nobody cares that Ohio is under martial law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: wxfree on March 25, 2020, 09:15:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 17, 2020, 05:26:30 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on March 17, 2020, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 17, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
I think we should be able to use some common sense. [...] People who are at risk should minimize their risk. Those who are in contact with them should use common sense and their own good judgment about public interactions. But don't restrict the rest of us who aren't in those positions.

The problem is that the American public is full of selfish assholes who will do whatever they want without thinking about the consequences for anyone else. You would know better than to visit your elderly father and risk giving him the virus. There are people who would be like "This whole coronavirus thing is overblown, there's no way I could have it, I'm gonna go see Dad!" and end up murdering him with their own stupidity.

Hit the nail right on the head. Comment sections all over the internet are full of these specimens.

Murder is a tad strong sentiment. That's the extremism I'm starting to see out of the general populace and that has real potential to be an incredibly dangerous mindset.  .

Murder is a strong term for that kind of situation, but the Department of Justice is saying that people who intentionally spread the virus may be charged with terrorism.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/coronavirus-terrorism-justice-department/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/coronavirus-terrorism-justice-department/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 25, 2020, 09:36:59 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 25, 2020, 08:13:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 06:48:15 PM
Would that actually even stop you from doing that?

No. I went to Cincinnati today, and I noticed nobody cares that Ohio is under martial law.

Their funerals
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 25, 2020, 10:18:32 PM
https://www.nj.com/news/j66j-2020/03/30325b74141230/these-traffic-cams-and-new-stats-show-how-eerily-empty-nj-roads-are-at-rush-hour.html

QuoteIn less than two weeks coronavirus has obliterated the rush hour traffic that commuters love to hate.

Drivers have noticed it, traffic cameras have documented it and Inrix, a company that tracks global traffic statistics has confirmed it. An Inrix report said traffic dropped by 30% nationally by March 20. That figure was higher in the New York area where traffic has dropped 43%.

A positive side is that commercial traffic, specifically trucks hauling toilet paper and other needed groceries has remained "flat"  with no declines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 25, 2020, 10:34:56 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 24, 2020, 08:08:00 PM
NC Gov. Roy Cooper has asked Trump for a major disaster declaration for the state.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19 (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19)

Trump approved it.

https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2020/03/25/president-donald-j-trump-approves-major-disaster-declaration-north-carolina (https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2020/03/25/president-donald-j-trump-approves-major-disaster-declaration-north-carolina)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GenExpwy on March 26, 2020, 03:31:57 AM
Got an email yesterday that Spectrum cable is letting everyone watch the Showtime and Epix bundles of movie channels, because so many people are stuck at home.

I mention this because one of the Showtime movies last night happened to be 12 Monkeys. :crazy:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on March 26, 2020, 06:26:17 AM
Quote from: US71 on March 25, 2020, 09:36:59 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 25, 2020, 08:13:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 06:48:15 PM
Would that actually even stop you from doing that?

No. I went to Cincinnati today, and I noticed nobody cares that Ohio is under martial law.

Their funerals

It's hardly the Black Death (CFR of about 30% in 1348).  The CFR of this thing has been calculated to be anywhere from 0.05% to 1%.  The CDC is using a CFR of 0.8%; higher than the seasonal flu, but lower than the 1918 flu (CFR of 1% to 2.5%).
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Of course, if the FDA would get out of the way, we might actually get enough people tested to make a real difference (and it may lower the CFR even further).  The FDA's testing timeline is one of the reasons we haven't been able to move as fast as say, South Korea.  And that testing timeline goes back decades, through many administrations, both Republican and Democratic.
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/at-home-covid-19-test

The CDC and NIOSH also need to streamline their approvals for new N95 masks to make this work right.  Again, these are rules that go back decades.
Look at how complex the application itself is: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/resources/certpgmspt/pdfs/APR-FFR-03122018-508.pdf
And this is if you want to make them, even off a tried and true design that's already been approved by NIOSH.  Approval can take up to 90 days.  At least Congress and the White House managed to make it easier and got the FDA out of the way of the sales channels: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/19/change-us-law-will-make-millions-more-masks-available-doctors-nurses-white-house-says/

The only way to really be sure how to respond is to follow the South Korean model and test as many as we can (they tested 1 in 160).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-long-will-the-coronavirus-lockdowns-go-on-11584899513
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/23/mass-testing-is-only-sustainable-solution/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 26, 2020, 07:10:20 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 26, 2020, 06:26:17 AM
Quote from: US71 on March 25, 2020, 09:36:59 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 25, 2020, 08:13:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 25, 2020, 06:48:15 PM
Would that actually even stop you from doing that?

No. I went to Cincinnati today, and I noticed nobody cares that Ohio is under martial law.

Their funerals

It's hardly the Black Death (CFR of about 30% in 1348).  The CFR of this thing has been calculated to be anywhere from 0.05% to 1%.  The CDC is using a CFR of 0.8%; higher than the seasonal flu, but lower than the 1918 flu (CFR of 1% to 2.5%).
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Of course, if the FDA would get out of the way, we might actually get enough people tested to make a real difference (and it may lower the CFR even further).  The FDA's testing timeline is one of the reasons we haven't been able to move as fast as say, South Korea.  And that testing timeline goes back decades, through many administrations, both Republican and Democratic.
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/at-home-covid-19-test

The CDC and NIOSH also need to streamline their approvals for new N95 masks to make this work right.  Again, these are rules that go back decades.
Look at how complex the application itself is: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/resources/certpgmspt/pdfs/APR-FFR-03122018-508.pdf
And this is if you want to make them, even off a tried and true design that's already been approved by NIOSH.  Approval can take up to 90 days.  At least Congress and the White House managed to make it easier and got the FDA out of the way of the sales channels: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/19/change-us-law-will-make-millions-more-masks-available-doctors-nurses-white-house-says/

The only way to really be sure how to respond is to follow the South Korean model and test as many as we can (they tested 1 in 160).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-long-will-the-coronavirus-lockdowns-go-on-11584899513
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/23/mass-testing-is-only-sustainable-solution/
Two recent papers calculate fatality rate being 1.4 and 1.6%.
1% seems optimistic.
And there are long term effects, potentially serious disability.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on March 26, 2020, 08:52:02 AM
Somehow, Northwest Arkansas has only about 10 cases despite being a medium-sized metro area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on March 26, 2020, 10:22:22 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 26, 2020, 08:52:02 AM
Somehow, Northwest Arkansas has only about 10 cases despite being a medium-sized metro area.

I would chock it up more to a lack of testing than anything.  Although the schools in Arkansas shut down for AMI learning a week ago Monday, which undoubtedly helped, and lots of folks that I work with are working from home now as thankfully we have relatively large areas of fantastic fiber Internet here unless you're in the boonies of Benton County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 26, 2020, 10:39:08 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 26, 2020, 10:22:22 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 26, 2020, 08:52:02 AM
Somehow, Northwest Arkansas has only about 10 cases despite being a medium-sized metro area.

I would chock it up more to a lack of testing than anything.  Although the schools in Arkansas shut down for AMI learning a week ago Monday, which undoubtedly helped, and lots of folks that I work with are working from home now as thankfully we have relatively large areas of fantastic fiber Internet here unless you're in the boonies of Benton County.
Not sure if that is the only thing. a sure sign of NYC being a hot spot is morgues running out of capacity. I don't think there are similar issues elsewhere in US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on March 26, 2020, 10:55:14 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 26, 2020, 10:39:08 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 26, 2020, 10:22:22 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 26, 2020, 08:52:02 AM
Somehow, Northwest Arkansas has only about 10 cases despite being a medium-sized metro area.

I would chock it up more to a lack of testing than anything.  Although the schools in Arkansas shut down for AMI learning a week ago Monday, which undoubtedly helped, and lots of folks that I work with are working from home now as thankfully we have relatively large areas of fantastic fiber Internet here unless you're in the boonies of Benton County.
Not sure if that is the only thing. a sure sign of NYC being a hot spot is morgues running out of capacity. I don't think there are similar issues elsewhere in US.
New York City is a hot spot for these reasons (and likely others):
1. Very high population density (over 8 million residents (plus the office workers that live outside the city and commute in for work) in an area smaller than Benzie County, MI (the smallest by area county in Michigan))
2. Lots of international travel (recent immigrants going back and visiting their home country; there were direct flights from JFK Airport to Wuhan, China)
3. Large low-income population (I saw an article somewhere that one of the hardest-hit hospitals normally takes care of a lot of people that don't have primary doctors)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 26, 2020, 11:57:54 AM
Case fatality ratio is defined as number of deaths divided by number of cases and, as such, is regarded as a situationally specific measure that is dependent on the availability of treatment resource, demographics of the infected population, etc.  I distrust estimates of CFR for COVID-19 that put it as low as 1% because inevitably they rely on educated guesses as to how much current testing oversamples serious cases.

The leading candidate for disease agent causing the Black Death is bubonic plague, which (if caught early) is actually more straightforward to treat with modern antibiotics than COVID-19 is with therapies predicated on respiratory support.  The other plague I've seen cited as politically destabilizing is the one that hit Athens in 430 BC during the Peloponnesian War (killing something like 30% of the population), and the leading candidates for it are typhus and typhoid--both eminently treatable today.

The gold standard is the percentage of confirmed cases that end up in ICUs, as this gets past sampling bias in testing at a given point in time, though not large-scale expansion or contraction of testing through time.  If, for example, we find about 14% of those tested need ICU treatment and the ICUs are running at more than 100% load, then the death rate we end up with is going to be closer to 14%.

And Kalvado's point about nasty sequelae for survivors is well taken.  It's much too early to know this for COVID-19, but enough time has passed since SARS in 2003 that it has become evident it is correlated with very high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on March 26, 2020, 12:16:42 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 26, 2020, 11:57:54 AM
Case fatality ratio is defined as number of deaths divided by number of cases and, as such, is regarded as a situationally specific measure that is dependent on the availability of treatment resource, demographics of the infected population, etc.  I distrust estimates of CFR for COVID-19 that put it as low as 1% because inevitably they rely on educated guesses as to how much current testing oversamples serious cases.

The leading candidate for disease agent causing the Black Death is bubonic plague, which (if caught early) is actually more straightforward to treat with modern antibiotics than COVID-19 is with therapies predicated on respiratory support.  The other plague I've seen cited as politically destabilizing is the one that hit Athens in 430 BC during the Peloponnesian War (killing something like 30% of the population), and the leading candidates for it are typhus and typhoid--both eminently treatable today.

The gold standard is the percentage of confirmed cases that end up in ICUs, as this gets past sampling bias in testing at a given point in time, though not large-scale expansion or contraction of testing through time.  If, for example, we find about 14% of those tested need ICU treatment and the ICUs are running at more than 100% load, then the death rate we end up with is going to be closer to 14%.

And Kalvado's point about nasty sequelae for survivors is well taken.  It's much too early to know this for COVID-19, but enough time has passed since SARS in 2003 that it has become evident it is correlated with very high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors.
Are you in the medical field?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 26, 2020, 12:24:18 PM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 26, 2020, 10:22:22 AM
Quote from: 1 on March 26, 2020, 08:52:02 AM
Somehow, Northwest Arkansas has only about 10 cases despite being a medium-sized metro area.
I would chock it up more to a lack of testing than anything.

Definitely that, and probably the fact that there's multiple cities instead of a single larger one, no major international airport, and so on.
Not exactly a major travel/tourism hot spot.

In other news, West Virginia reports 51 cases, surpassing Wyoming at 49, ND at 45 and SD at 41, thus ending its long reign as the state with the fewest cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 26, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
Even those states that have issued shelter-in-place orders are, to the best of my knowledge, letting people whose businesses or offices aren't closed still go to work, still allowing them to shop at businesses that are still open, and are encouraging outdoor recreation. I've seen those "bear hunts" I mentioned yesterday being promoted in communities in several states.

On a totally unrelated note, what are those who are getting their stimulus checks planning to do with them? Any road-related thoughts? I may rent a car and go county-collecting or route-clinching.

The closest states to me that would be easiest to complete in terms of clinching counties are Missouri and Arkansas. Of course, I still lack Suffolk and Nassau in New York, and the island counties of Massachusetts, but I may forego those for awhile.

My best route-clinching options are I-65 and US 31, an easy down-and-back from Nashville. I have everything north of Birmingham for I-65, and everything north of Nashville for US 31. Two routes I'd really like to clinch, US 23 and US 52, are problematic because I have the middles of both routes pretty well done, but need portions on either end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 12:56:14 PM
Regarding road related use of the stimulus check upcoming I've been more or less buying up signs with a budget of 1/3rd of the money in mind.  I'll get out to Northern California sooner or later if not Idaho which I'll probably lump some of that money onto.  More than likely the rest will he spent on a October road trip I had planned to Arizona anyways. 

To that end if things start to cool off and work isn't so jumpy with phone calls I'll probably go for some route clinching around Los Angeles before the smoke totally clears.  I kind of want to go that way anyways to see if it's possible to finish the Old Ridge Route...because it was last year when I decided to hike much of it when it was supposedly closed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 26, 2020, 12:57:19 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 26, 2020, 11:57:54 AM
Case fatality ratio is defined as number of deaths divided by number of cases and, as such, is regarded as a situationally specific measure that is dependent on the availability of treatment resource, demographics of the infected population, etc.  I distrust estimates of CFR for COVID-19 that put it as low as 1% because inevitably they rely on educated guesses as to how much current testing oversamples serious cases.

The leading candidate for disease agent causing the Black Death is bubonic plague, which (if caught early) is actually more straightforward to treat with modern antibiotics than COVID-19 is with therapies predicated on respiratory support.  The other plague I've seen cited as politically destabilizing is the one that hit Athens in 430 BC during the Peloponnesian War (killing something like 30% of the population), and the leading candidates for it are typhus and typhoid--both eminently treatable today.

The gold standard is the percentage of confirmed cases that end up in ICUs, as this gets past sampling bias in testing at a given point in time, though not large-scale expansion or contraction of testing through time.  If, for example, we find about 14% of those tested need ICU treatment and the ICUs are running at more than 100% load, then the death rate we end up with is going to be closer to 14%.

And Kalvado's point about nasty sequelae for survivors is well taken.  It's much too early to know this for COVID-19, but enough time has passed since SARS in 2003 that it has become evident it is correlated with very high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors.

Would you take my statement about 1.4 and 1.6% fatality rate as well?
This is latest published data, and it actually rings well with a few other numbers I see. Much lower for <30, suchs to be in 60+ cohort though, moreso 70+.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 26, 2020, 01:13:18 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 26, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
Even those states that have issued shelter-in-place orders are, to the best of my knowledge, letting people whose businesses or offices aren't closed still go to work, still allowing them to shop at businesses that are still open, and are encouraging outdoor recreation. I've seen those "bear hunts" I mentioned yesterday being promoted in communities in several states.

On a totally unrelated note, what are those who are getting their stimulus checks planning to do with them? Any road-related thoughts? I may rent a car and go county-collecting or route-clinching.

....

Regarding the stimulus check, we need to have the outside of our house painted and some rotted wood repaired, so we plan to put the stimulus check towards that, along with the tax refunds we already received.

Regarding staying at home, I'm unaware of any state that says you can't go out at all. Most states encourage people to get outside for exercise (maintaining appropriate distance from anyone other than family members), and certainly there is no reason why you couldn't take your car out for a drive. I drove two of ours on a short loop this past weekend, maybe 15 minutes each, just to run them and to keep the tires from flat-spotting. Surely I could have gone further had I wanted to do so, but there was nowhere I really wanted to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 01:27:45 PM
Something else I need road related is new tires in about 10,000 miles.  I've been looking at a scrap compressor and mounting machine too, it would probably be good investment given how cheap they are. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on March 26, 2020, 01:49:18 PM
Given NY's catastrophic budget shortfall (we already had a sizeable deficit to try to close, which the economic fallout from the virus more than doubled at the same time Congress moved to block the strategy were were going to use to deal with the original deficit), I think I'm going to wait to see how state employees are affected by this before doing anything with the money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 26, 2020, 01:57:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 26, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
On a totally unrelated note, what are those who are getting their stimulus checks planning to do with them? Any road-related thoughts? I may rent a car and go county-collecting or route-clinching.

First thing I'm doing is packing up my crap and moving back to NC once the pandemic levels off, and if I have enough pennies left after the initial move, I'll probably go for a little joy ride. Haven't decided where yet, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 26, 2020, 03:11:30 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 26, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
Even those states that have issued shelter-in-place orders are, to the best of my knowledge, letting people whose businesses or offices aren't closed still go to work, still allowing them to shop at businesses that are still open, and are encouraging outdoor recreation.

Speaking for upstate New York (obviously a completely different world than the NYC area, but part of a shelter-in-place state nonetheless) I would say this is an accurate reflection of the situation here.

Traffic is light, but there's still movement of people, goods and services. It's just different. More economic activity is happening from home. Parks are busy, especially those with good walking trails. Restaurants have taken a bit hit but most are still operating in limited capacity. Most grocery stores are back to (somewhat) normal. If this is the new normal for a few months, I think I can handle it. Not exactly living the dream, but not horror movie type stuff, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 26, 2020, 03:39:03 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 26, 2020, 01:57:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 26, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
On a totally unrelated note, what are those who are getting their stimulus checks planning to do with them? Any road-related thoughts? I may rent a car and go county-collecting or route-clinching.

First thing I'm doing is packing up my crap and moving back to NC once the pandemic levels off, and if I have enough pennies left after the initial move, I'll probably go for a little joy ride. Haven't decided where yet, though.


I'm likely staying out, but a roadtrip is in order. I may take a couple extra days in June if the  Jefferson Highway Conference  (https://www.jeffersonhighway.org/event-3668739)is still on and try to follow it north.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 26, 2020, 04:50:06 PM
Quote from: tolbs17 on March 20, 2020, 04:24:55 PM
will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?
Didn't take too long. US is officially #1 on the list as of right now.
ANd probably that is not only the number of tested, but close match in the number of actual infected as death count is on the same page, and US number will keep increasing even if infection suddenly stops.  I still believe Italy is up there with much lower testing rate, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 26, 2020, 05:26:39 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 26, 2020, 01:49:18 PM
Given NY's catastrophic budget shortfall (we already had a sizeable deficit to try to close, which the economic fallout from the virus more than doubled at the same time Congress moved to block the strategy were were going to use to deal with the original deficit), I think I'm going to wait to see how state employees are affected by this before doing anything with the money.

CNBC had some really sobering numbers referencing that.  Ouch.

We know NJ will have a shortfall as well...I don't think I've seen any estimates yet though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 06:06:52 PM
Popping onto the forum for a minute after a bit of a break...  I've had a lot on my mind lately.

So, I was in Mexico last week, and travel was rather more stressful than usual.  This was a church mission trip, our family plus two other gentlemen.  It was originally planned for October but got postponed to Spring Break.

For starters, literally two days before we left home (Thursday 3/12), we started hearing rumors that Mexico was closing the border due to the Coronavirus.  For a day or so, I couldn't find any news articles to either confirm or deny the rumors.  Then, the day before we left (Friday 3/13), I saw that the Sub-secretary of Health in Mexico had stated publicly:  "If technically necessary, we would consider mechanisms to restrict or intensify surveillance (at the border)..."  So, basically, the news took a political "maybe" statement and ran with it.  Still, though, you never know.

When we arrived in Del Rio (TX) on Saturday evening (3/14), I asked the Motel 6 clerk about the border closing.  She responded with something like "yeah, that's what we've been hearing, and we're just going day by day here".  The next morning (Saturday 3/15), we crossed the border without issue–no search, no stop, no nothing–and drove the 1.5 hours to the customs building in Allende (Coah).  I asked the immigration agent there what he had heard about the border closing.  His reply (in Spanish):  "They haven't said anything;  there are only two cases in the whole state of Coahuila;  they haven't said anything."  Cool.  And so, we went on our merry way south to Parras de la Fuente.

On Wednesday (3/18), it was announced in Parras that they were shutting down the biggest tourist spots, including the big swimming tank (https://goo.gl/maps/uKaeGv9r5Fohzovw9).  We had all forgotten or decided not to pack swimming suits anyway, so we went with the children from the home down the street to the local swimming hole (https://goo.gl/maps/2tgiTd7dTe4eDwZA8) instead and just swam in our clothes.  Less sanitary (ironically), but more fun because all the kids were with us.

The next morning (Thursday 3/19), we hiked up to Santo Madero (https://goo.gl/maps/vM8zhNVzGU2eCMan6) because they hadn't closed that and it's one spot we simply can't ever miss because of the amazing views.  Later in the day, my boss called to let me know that, by order of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, I would be required to self-quarantine for two weeks upon returning home:  anyone who had traveled internationally after 3/15 had to do so.  I would not be allowed to set foot in the office, and I was to text her a list of everything I needed (computer included) so someone could drop it off on our front porch.  This was frustrating, considering I was traveling in both (1) a country with fewer cases of COVID-19 than the USA and also (2) a state with fewer cases of COVID-19 than Kansas.  But whatever.  I texted her my list.  Later that evening, we took the children's home directors out for steaks, and it was weird to see all the staff wearing face masks and only one other family in the whole restaurant.

Friday morning (3/20), we left town and headed north again.  Our youngest son got carsick in the middle of nowhere with no shoulder to pull off on, so I simply parked in the middle of the road somewhere just south of Hipólito (https://goo.gl/maps/fCKEW2k7tNX35LGV7), rummaged for all the napkins we could find in the glove box, dug a change of clothes out of luggage in the rear hatch (thank goodness that suitcase wasn't in the cargo box ratchet-strapped to the roof), wiped him down, changed his clothes, washed the booster seat fabric with bottled water, stuffed the nasty clothes in a plastic grocery bag, and pushed on.  A couple of hours later, my wife got a text message from a friend saying Trump was closing the US border.  We didn't figure they'd keep us out of our own country even if so, but you never know.  After texting a few other people for more details, we learned that they were merely closing the border to people who didn't already have papers (foreigners with no visa).  But, still, as I keep saying:  you never know.  So we decided to get our lunch to go, just in case and to not waste any time making it to the border.  I had already been driving about 5 to 10 mph faster than usual because we would be losing an hour at the border (re-entering DST), and this was becoming an ever more prudent practice.  In fact, I didn't even give up the wheel to let my wife take a turn driving, because I knew she wouldn't drive as fast as I wanted.

Back in Del Rio again that evening, we found out that the governor of Texas had shut down all restaurant dine-in.  Ordering in the drive-through for seven people, then trying to divvy up the food, with hardly any room to maneuver because of all the luggage–a minor inconvenience, really.  Boy, though, Chick-fil-A was ROCKING the drive-through (even more than usual).  We stayed the night in Sonora (TX), and I gave a hairy eyeball to the car with California plates in the parking lot:  What are you doing out of the state? at my motel? 

The next morning (Saturday 3/21), we went to the lobby for breakfast.  I always choose this particular motel because, in addition to the typical continental-type breakfast food you find everywhere, they also have someone who will cook you eggs and omelets to order.  Nope, not today.  Not only was the dining area closed (by order of the governor), but they weren't taking orders either.  Instead, there were brown-bag breakfasts lined up on the counter for guests to "grab and go".  Pretty lame, but better than nothing.  At least the coffee pot and juice dispenser were still OK to use.

And now here I am, on my fourth day of working from home, with another 1.5 weeks of self-quarantine to go.  My wife had to close down her home daycare because of the self-quarantine order, too.  Not that we'd probably have kids to watch anyway:  one parent was furloughed or laid off (I can't remember which), and the other kids' parents are a teacher (school is out for the rest of the year, though transitioning to online classes) and an A/V tech for hotel conventions (which aren't happening anymore).

I had been planning to get some pictures for the 1-2-3 road sign game–I could have gotten 2333, 2335, 2365, and 2395–but my heart and mind simply weren't in a place for snapping road sign photos.



Edited to add:  Two days ago, our friends who live in Parras as missionaries texted us that they've closed the entrance to town.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 06:32:07 PM
I was kind of wondering if you had popped down to Mexico.  Suffice to say your trip was way more eventful than mine was.  I flew back 2/25 and the only Virus talk I heard was at the airport when they asked I had been in China the previous 14 days prior.  We just had a similar restriction for border crossings requiring a 14 day quarantine at work that started last week.  Makes me glad in my case that I got to enjoy some quiet and not all that crazy crap. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 26, 2020, 06:56:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 06:06:52 PM
So, I was in Mexico last week, and travel was rather more stressful than usual.  This was a church mission trip, our family plus two other gentlemen.  It was originally planned for October but got postponed to Spring Break.

Although everything seems to have worked out fine, I'm surprised that you didn't postpone the trip again. Or just straight-up cancel it. Especially with how risky the border situation was.

I've been seeing people in my area canceling holidays/vacations right and left. To hear that you drove literally a thousand miles in each direction for a mission trip doesn't seem to have been advisable. But I'm also not religious, and don't necessarily understand the importance of missions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:17:38 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 26, 2020, 06:56:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 06:06:52 PM
So, I was in Mexico last week, and travel was rather more stressful than usual.  This was a church mission trip, our family plus two other gentlemen.  It was originally planned for October but got postponed to Spring Break.

Although everything seems to have worked out fine, I'm surprised that you didn't postpone the trip again. Or just straight-up cancel it. Especially with how risky the border situation was.

I've been seeing people in my area canceling holidays/vacations right and left. To hear that you drove literally a thousand miles in each direction for a mission trip doesn't seem to have been advisable. But I'm also not religious, and don't necessarily understand the importance of missions.

Honestly if I did have work to tie me down I probably would want to be in Mexico during things like what is going on now.  I'm not saying the virus won't spread but I don't see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I'm more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 07:22:32 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 26, 2020, 06:56:11 PM
Although everything seems to have worked out fine, I'm surprised that you didn't postpone the trip again. Or just straight-up cancel it. Especially with how risky the border situation was.

I've been seeing people in my area canceling holidays/vacations right and left. To hear that you drove literally a thousand miles in each direction for a mission trip doesn't seem to have been advisable. But I'm also not religious, and don't necessarily understand the importance of missions.

A few things...

(1)  We were traveling to a place with less prevalence of the coronavirus.  In that sense, you could say it was safer to travel than to stay home.  By the time we left Wichita, there had already been one positive case in town here (a resident of a neighboring county treated at a Wichita hospital)–whereas, in Coahuila, there have still been zero cases within 90 miles of our destination.

(2)  The rumors of border closings didn't start until literally two days before we left.  I mean, our family was already half-packed when we heard the first inklings of anything.  By the time I read that news article (which really wasn't anything), the rooftop cargo box was already loaded and strapped to the top of the car.  This is perhaps the most pertinent point:  we had no clue the border might be an issue until right before we left.  In fact, just a couple of weeks earlier, the US government had specifically stated it wouldn't be closing the border.

(3)  This wasn't just an evangelistic mission trip.  We had promised to demolish an old deteriorating roof and provide funds for new construction in order to help meet government regulations.  Considering that Mexico hadn't yet decided to close the schools (which they did while we were there), inspectors were expected to show up not long after our trip.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:17:38 PM
I'm not saying the virus won't spread but I don't see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I'm more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 

A lot of people in Mexico are spreading the rumor that the cornoavirus is just a big political stunt in the USA and that it isn't really a problem.  At least, that's what they had been saying until last week.  With all of the shutdowns and everything going on there now, I'm betting the people are starting to figure out it's a real thing.  I know I wasn't able to escape conversations about the virus:  both a local pastor and the children's home director brought it up in conversation with me, and the director mentioned that a lot of people are worried about their personal financial situations and also the national economy.

I suspect that's a big change since you were there, even recently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:30:51 PM
In the last couple weeks we've gotten a lot of calls from family in Jalisco asking about what is going on state side.  The biggest point of concern was that they thought "Stay at home"  was a serious actual lockdown inside your home.  I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened.  Most of our family can't close their shops since that is where they draw their entire income from and I don't think that they would unless there was some serious outside intervention.  I'll have to ask my wife how things were during the Swine Flu, everybody seems oddly (by the standards I see daily) chill and more concerned we can't get out of the house. 

But to your point, yes people are "actually"  at least seriously talking about the virus in our family circle now.  When I was down there it was nothing but Corona Beer Virus jokes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 26, 2020, 07:32:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:17:38 PM
Honestly if I did have work to tie me down I probably would want to be in Mexico during things like what is going on now.  I’m not saying the virus won’t spread but I don’t see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I’m more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 

ISTM that, on average, rural areas are safer than urban areas.

My solo road trip earlier this month to Georgia and the Carolinas (started before the virus panics and hassles escalated during the last few days of my trip) mostly avoided urban areas like where I reside. So getting out of town might've reduced my risks. It helped that I didn't go down to south Florida for some beach time like I usually do on winter road trips, giving priority instead to rural route-clinching with minimum human contact.

Conveniently, the self-checkouts at Walmarts and other big-box stores where I shopped were usually about six feet apart, helping with "social distancing". And I usually used drive-thrus at fast-food restaurants (even before the dine-in seating areas started closing), except sandwich shops which often don't have drive-thrus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 07:37:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:30:51 PM
I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened. 

Yes.  All Mexican schools are on the same schedule, so what happens happens nationwide.  School is now suspended for at least a month.  I seem to remember hearing a return date in May, but my memory is fuzzy on that.  It was announced last week.  Monday of last week was a school holiday, and we expected the kids to go to school Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday while we were there.  It turns out we got to be with them every day, because classes in town never resumed.  Secondary school students were allowed to pick up their schoolwork, whereas primary school students had to have a parent or guardian get it for them the next day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:42:20 PM
Quote from: oscar on March 26, 2020, 07:32:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:17:38 PM
Honestly if I did have work to tie me down I probably would want to be in Mexico during things like what is going on now.  I'm not saying the virus won't spread but I don't see the same level of constant media attention driving through panic like it did in the U.S.   Granted I'm more familiar with rural Jalisco, it seems that family there is handling potential uncertainty far more rationally than they are State Side. 

ISTM that, on average, rural areas are safer than urban areas.

My road trip earlier this month to Georgia and the Carolinas (started before the virus panics and hassles escalated during the last few days of my trip) mostly avoided urban areas like where I reside. So getting out of town might've reduced my risks. It helped that I didn't go down to south Florida for some beach time like I usually do on winter road trips, giving priority instead to rural route-clinching with minimum human contact.

Conveniently, the self-checkouts at Walmarts and other big-box stores where I shopped were usually about six feet apart, helping with "social distancing".

Perhaps, technically I live in the City of Fresno but I might as well be out in unincorporated Fresno County.  I went to the Sanger Walmart to buy weights the night Fresno declared "stay at home"  and it was very chill compared what I've seen elsewhere.  Even Fresno is far more "business as usual"  compared to the larger cities like Los Angeles and the Bay Area, comparatively our traffic drop is nominal. 

Out in Firebaugh there has been some problems with people supply hoarding and attempting to steal from homes.  Lemoore, Hanford, Visalia, and Madera all kind of have a Fresno-like atmosphere to them.  I kind of wonder how things are out in far off places like; King City, Avenal, Corcoran, and others like it?  As far as I know Fresno was the first city in the Central Valley to declare stay at home.  The counties seem to have been the ones pursuing the National Parks to close.  I still don't think Pinnacles has closed on the San Benito County side yet, but if you're willing to go that far out into the middle of nowhere on CA 25 you deserve to hike if you want to. 

To that end, I feel comfortable enough taking a trip to places like Sierra County like I had planned.  The virus stuff is definitely on minds but it isn't quite the reality of what dense urban cores are seeing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: noelbotevera on March 26, 2020, 07:52:18 PM
I've thoroughly recovered from my bought of flu (okay, some coughing, sniffles, and a rash due to too much medicine) so decided to do some stuff over this week. Some notes:

School is further delayed until April 14th and based on the PA cases I fully expect the rest of the school year to be cancelled. AP tests have been cancelled -- more or less -- forcing us to take a 45 minute mini version at home.

Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over. Considering testing is ramping up, we're probably going to discover (some too late) cases that previously went under the radar. For what it's worth, I got tested on March 19th and was expecting a phone call yesterday (3-4 business days) but still haven't gotten a response, meaning that rural responses seem a little slow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 08:03:47 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 07:37:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:30:51 PM
I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened. 

Yes.  All Mexican schools are on the same schedule, so what happens happens nationwide.  School is now suspended for at least a month.  I seem to remember hearing a return date in May, but my memory is fuzzy on that.  It was announced last week.  Monday of last week was a school holiday, and we expected the kids to go to school Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday while we were there.  It turns out we got to be with them every day, because classes in town never resumed.  Secondary school students were allowed to pick up their schoolwork, whereas primary school students had to have a parent or guardian get it for them the next day.

At least they have some school work, the schools here didn't do anything locally.  We were putting our niece through the 5th Grade this year and now we're the ones basically having to give her homework.  Granted the close proximity to schools to homes probably helps a ton down there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on March 26, 2020, 08:08:38 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-orleans-hospitals-reel-as-u-s-leads-world-in-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21D1ZR (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-orleans-hospitals-reel-as-u-s-leads-world-in-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21D1ZR)




Update the USA now has the most COVID-19 Reports.



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 26, 2020, 08:37:16 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 26, 2020, 07:52:18 PM
Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over.

Try by the end of tomorrow (Friday)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on March 26, 2020, 08:41:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 26, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
On a totally unrelated note, what are those who are getting their stimulus checks planning to do with them? Any road-related thoughts? I may rent a car and go county-collecting or route-clinching.

With non-essential travel banned in both New York and Massachusetts, and states one by one implementing rules that anyone who arrives from the NYC metro area must be quarantined... I'm not going anywhere until those restrictions go away.

I have no particular intention of altering my spending on account of any extra money we may receive from the IRS anyway. It may come in handy if one of us experiences a loss of income before this is over - no hints of such occurring yet, but at this point I take nothing for granted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 08:43:07 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 26, 2020, 08:37:16 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 26, 2020, 07:52:18 PM
Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over.

Try by the end of tomorrow (Friday)

You all realize this is mostly tests results that are coming back almost at once?  The published confirmed number isn't really indicative of the true infection rate. The real infection rate probably can never really be accurately quantified and is likely several times what is being reported. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on March 26, 2020, 08:45:00 PM
As of now, only Kansas, Oklahoma, and Virginia have officially cancelled the rest of the school year. AFAIK, all three of those states are early-out states, as in their school year normally ends around (or even before) Memorial Day. I think many states will end up canceling the rest of the school year, with some rural states (especially those whose school year normally runs into June) returning to school sometime in mid to late April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 26, 2020, 08:56:12 PM
https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/1243279807179370496
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 26, 2020, 09:04:40 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on March 26, 2020, 08:45:00 PM
AFAIK, all three of those states are early-out states, as in their school year normally ends around (or even before) Memorial Day.
Can't speak for the rest of the state, but schools in Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Northern Virginia in Virginia all let out in mid-June and begin in September after Labor Day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 26, 2020, 09:09:52 PM
Seattle is largely obeying the stay-at-home order. Things are a bit busier in the suburbs, but people are keeping to themselves.

https://twitter.com/EricJensenTV/status/1243339242882793473
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 09:33:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 08:03:47 PM

Quote from: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 07:37:12 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 07:30:51 PM
I know that around Zacoalco they were talking about dismissing school for a couple weeks but I don't know if that has actually happened. 

Yes.  All Mexican schools are on the same schedule, so what happens happens nationwide.  School is now suspended for at least a month.  I seem to remember hearing a return date in May, but my memory is fuzzy on that.  It was announced last week.  Monday of last week was a school holiday, and we expected the kids to go to school Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday while we were there.  It turns out we got to be with them every day, because classes in town never resumed.  Secondary school students were allowed to pick up their schoolwork, whereas primary school students had to have a parent or guardian get it for them the next day.

At least they have some school work, the schools here didn't do anything locally.  We were putting our niece through the 5th Grade this year and now we're the ones basically having to give her homework.  Granted the close proximity to schools to homes probably helps a ton down there. 

Business as usual for our children, considering they're home-schooled already.  They did homework while we were in Mexico, and they're doing homework now.  In fact, it's actually better for them because the daycare kids aren't around to distract them from their work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 26, 2020, 09:45:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 07:22:32 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 26, 2020, 06:56:11 PM
Although everything seems to have worked out fine, I'm surprised that you didn't postpone the trip again. Or just straight-up cancel it. Especially with how risky the border situation was.

I've been seeing people in my area canceling holidays/vacations right and left. To hear that you drove literally a thousand miles in each direction for a mission trip doesn't seem to have been advisable. But I'm also not religious, and don't necessarily understand the importance of missions.

A few things...

(1)  We were traveling to a place with less prevalence of the coronavirus.  In that sense, you could say it was safer to travel than to stay home, and avoid all contact beyond absolutely necessary trips.  By the time we left Wichita, there had already been one positive case in town here (a resident of a neighboring county treated at a Wichita hospital)–whereas, in Coahuila, there have still been zero cases within 90 miles of our destination.

I don't really think that's how it works. When there's an airborne virus, the point is not to flood towards somewhere that has no virus, but to simply stay put within one's home (reducing exposure). I've not seen any of my extended family for almost two weeks now, as we've been "quarantined" within our homes. My quarantine started last week after a visit to my friend's house, who had recently visited a casino. Basic things like that are getting people labeled as "morons" up here right now. Taking a driving vacation? You'd be locked up in a mental hospital.

The issue with travelling with a virus, as I see it, is with whom you come into contact with during the journey. Maybe there weren't any confirmed cases along your journey, but there's also been very little testing in those areas. Back when you took the trip? Probably no testing at all. There was 1 confirmed case in a neighboring county, but what about those with unconfirmed cases?

Quote from: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 07:22:32 PM
(2)  The rumors of border closings didn't start until literally two days before we left.  I mean, our family was already half-packed when we heard the first inklings of anything.  By the time I read that news article (which really wasn't anything), the rooftop cargo box was already loaded and strapped to the top of the car.  This is perhaps the most pertinent point:  we had no clue the border might be an issue until right before we left.  In fact, just a couple of weeks earlier, the US government had specifically stated it wouldn't be closing the border.

I mean, still. You left your house having heard rumblings of a possible border closure. I get if you were taking a day trip, but you undertook a 2000 mile journey with the understanding that you might get stuck. That just seems risky as hell, especially with things changing everyday. I would have taken the time to unpack, frankly.

I'm not trying to be overly critical, but I feel like a ton of the issues with this country and coronavirus has been our inability to comprehend basic consequences from simple tasks like going to the gas station, or walking along a sidewalk near other people. People jogging by are putting the rest of us at risk from their excessive breathing. This is serious stuff. Think about all those people that you came into contact with during your journey, physically and verbally. Are you 100% sure that none of them had the virus? I suppose there's no way to be sure, but then that leads back to my original point: why risk it at all?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 26, 2020, 09:53:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 26, 2020, 08:43:07 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 26, 2020, 08:37:16 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on March 26, 2020, 07:52:18 PM
Addendum: I think the US will definitely have 100k cases before the month is over.

Try by the end of tomorrow (Friday)

You all realize this is mostly tests results that are coming back almost at once?  The published confirmed number isn't really indicative of the true infection rate. The real infection rate probably can never really be accurately quantified and is likely several times what is being reported.

I agree with you. I was merely referring to the *confirmed* total. We are almost certainly in the hundreds of thousands right now in reality (just unconfirmed)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 26, 2020, 10:08:35 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 26, 2020, 06:06:52 PM
Popping onto the forum for a minute after a bit of a break...  I've had a lot on my mind lately.

So, I was in Mexico last week, and travel was rather more stressful than usual.  This was a church mission trip, our family plus two other gentlemen.  It was originally planned for October but got postponed to Spring Break.

Welcome back - and glad you made it back safely!
Sounds like the last couple of weeks have been more interesting for you than the rest of us, if not less stressful!

As I see it, the time period from Wed. 03/11 (when all the sports leagues shuttered) to Sun. 03/15 was basically when the reality of the situation hit us here in the US. Before that Wednesday, it was not being taken seriously by many people, including our own government, and by that Sunday, it was clear that we had a serious crisis on our hands, and the week were heading into was going to be an unprecedented one on many levels.

All that is to say, only about a week separated "business as usual" (not batting an eyelash about international travel) and "shutdown mode" (international travel strongly discouraged if not restricted or banned). Your trip happened to be scheduled to start during the week that everything was in limbo: I have no idea what I would have done in that situation, so I certainly can't criticize your decision. (I'm happy to watch from the sidelines as it gets hashed over though!  :D)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on March 26, 2020, 11:51:10 PM
I wonder how the toll road finances are doing, especially the companies and authorities that recently built new and incredibly expensive managed lanes.  Those projects have high debt loads and payments to make, but drivers have little reason to choose the tolled alternative because of much lower traffic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 26, 2020, 11:52:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on March 26, 2020, 11:51:10 PM
I wonder how the toll road finances are doing, especially the companies and authorities that recently built new and incredibly expensive managed lanes.  Those projects have high debt loads and payments to make, but drivers have little reason to choose the tolled alternative because of much lower traffic.

Obviously traffic counts are going to be way down, particularly in metropolitan areas. The best thing that toll operators have going for them are either going to be debt payment suspensions, or taking advantage of the ludicrously cheap loan market right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on March 27, 2020, 12:09:49 AM
Here's an interesting idea.  This restaurant had a unique family pack deal.

https://www.facebook.com/BlueMesaGrill/photos/a.174444237637/10158494731907638/?type=3&theater
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 27, 2020, 12:41:07 AM
Couple quick takes:

1) How is TX going to realistically enforce a mandatory quarantine for folks travelling by car from CT, NJ, NY or RI?  I get that that's a minority of travelers but the virus can still spread that way?

2) There's no way to enforce any executive order limiting travel if you're driving because you would have to already be breaking a traffic law to get pulled over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on March 27, 2020, 01:03:08 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 27, 2020, 12:41:07 AM
Couple quick takes:

1) How is TX going to realistically enforce a mandatory quarantine for folks travelling by car from CT, NJ, NY or RI?  I get that that's a minority of travelers but the virus can still spread that way?

2) There's no way to enforce any executive order limiting travel if you're driving because you would have to already be breaking a traffic law to get pulled over.

Law is always a last resort.  You would hope that people wouldn't steal because it's wrong.  After that, you would hope that people wouldn't steal because they don't want anyone to steal from them.  For the most reprobate, you need laws, so that people won't steal because they don't want to be punished.  If I'm under an order to stay home and leave only for essential purposes and I go to a store, no one is going to search my home to verify that I legitimately needed to go to a store.  But we should expect that people will behave responsibly and not put other people in danger.  This is similar to the language in TxDOT's speed limit guidance, which doesn't say that speed limits are absolute, but says that the purpose of speed limits is to inform drivers of what speed is safe for the roads.  We then hope that drivers will take the guidance seriously.  The enforcement is the hope that you don't want to contribute to the harm and death of other people.  If you don't care about that, then only the most draconian of laws can stop you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 27, 2020, 01:06:57 AM
Quote from: wxfree on March 27, 2020, 01:03:08 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 27, 2020, 12:41:07 AM
Couple quick takes:

1) How is TX going to realistically enforce a mandatory quarantine for folks travelling by car from CT, NJ, NY or RI?  I get that that's a minority of travelers but the virus can still spread that way?

2) There's no way to enforce any executive order limiting travel if you're driving because you would have to already be breaking a traffic law to get pulled over.

Law is always a last resort.  You would hope that people wouldn't steal because it's wrong.  After that, you would hope that people wouldn't steal because they don't want anyone to steal from them.  For the most reprobate, you need laws, so that people won't steal because they don't want to be punished.  If I'm under an order to stay home and leave only for essential purposes and I go to a store, no one is going to search my home to verify that I legitimately needed to go to a store.  But we should expect that people will behave responsibly and not put other people in danger.  This is similar to the language in TxDOT's speed limit guidance, which doesn't say that speed limits are absolute, but says that the purpose of speed limits is to inform drivers of what speed is safe for the roads.  We then hope that drivers will take the guidance seriously.  The enforcement is the hope that you don't want to contribute to the harm and death of other people.  If you don't care about that, then only the most draconian laws can stop you.
I'm more getting at the fact that it only takes one person to infect many others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on March 27, 2020, 01:57:00 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 27, 2020, 12:41:07 AM
1) How is TX going to realistically enforce a mandatory quarantine for folks travelling by car from CT, NJ, NY or RI? 

They're not - the mandatory quarantine only applies if you arrive by air (it also doesn't include RI).

As for how they'd enforce it, well, if you register with the state Department of Public Service as the order requires you to, they will send people to do random checks to make sure you are in what you have designated as your quarantine location and that no one else is in there with you.

If you do not register as required... I'm not sure exactly what the state has in mind, though it is worth noting that if you get on an airplane, an official record of this fact is kept by the airline. The state of Texas may be able to get access to the passenger logs for any flights arriving from the restricted areas - if they do, they can identify individuals who are out of compliance by cross-checking against who has registered with DPS.


There's also a decent chance this requirement would not hold up in court. But someone would have to be the test case, and the crisis will likely have passed by the time a grievance gets through the court system, thus rendering the matter moot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 27, 2020, 10:46:09 AM
604 confirmed cases in VA so far, including 5 in my area (4 in Danville, 1 in Pittsylvania County).

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/604-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-virginia-2-in-lynchburg-4-in-danville (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/604-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-virginia-2-in-lynchburg-4-in-danville)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 27, 2020, 11:40:51 AM
Louisiana has the 10th most cases of all US states, but the 3rd most deaths (behind only NY and WA). That's a worrying trend. It should have been clear early on that New Orleans was primed to be the #3 hot spot in the country after Seattle and NYC. It's a major cultural center, just hosted big events like Mardi Gras, is very densely populated and close-knit, has among the highest poverty rates in the nation, and the list goes on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 11:43:01 AM
Plus, Mardi Gras ended back when the U.S. had hardly any cases outside the Seattle area. This shows this virus has been floating around in America for months. People had it and didn't even know it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 27, 2020, 12:40:56 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 11:43:01 AM
Plus, Mardi Gras ended back when the U.S. had hardly any cases outside the Seattle area. This shows this virus has been floating around in America for months. People had it and didn't even know it.

Possibly as early as November or December from what I'm hearing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 12:47:09 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 27, 2020, 12:40:56 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 11:43:01 AM
Plus, Mardi Gras ended back when the U.S. had hardly any cases outside the Seattle area. This shows this virus has been floating around in America for months. People had it and didn't even know it.

Possibly as early as November or December from what I'm hearing.

I mentioned it upthread but I had something that matched the symptoms described in COVID-19 to a tee around Christmas.  Turns out my Wife's Cousin was feeling similarly under the weather the week before he visited us from San Diego.  One of my coworkers got sick just like I did around the same time.  The main point of emphasis everyone had was the dry cough and difficulty breathing seemed odd for a flu.

Of course now, we're all making jokes about the healing powers of Vick's...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 12:47:50 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 27, 2020, 12:40:56 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 11:43:01 AM
Plus, Mardi Gras ended back when the U.S. had hardly any cases outside the Seattle area. This shows this virus has been floating around in America for months. People had it and didn't even know it.

Possibly as early as November or December from what I'm hearing.
If that is indeed the case, US origin of the virus becomes a distinct possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on March 27, 2020, 12:51:47 PM
The first several known cases were all related to travel to China. If it was in the US in December, it would have spread quickly by January, many of which would have had unknown sources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 12:53:21 PM
^^^

Would it not be so far fetched to say that cases could have and likely were mistaken for severe flus?  It's not anyone at the time was looking for a new viral infection..it's not all that out there considering how apathetic H1N1 was treated as just "another flu."   It would explain the plausibility of figures reported out of China since they essentially have ground to a halt. 

Quote from: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 12:47:50 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 27, 2020, 12:40:56 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 11:43:01 AM
Plus, Mardi Gras ended back when the U.S. had hardly any cases outside the Seattle area. This shows this virus has been floating around in America for months. People had it and didn't even know it.

Possibly as early as November or December from what I'm hearing.
If that is indeed the case, US origin of the virus becomes a distinct possibility.

Is there any actual way of proving it though is the question?  People who would have recovered from the virus presumptively wouldn't test positive this far after the fact.  I suppose tests could be run on tissue samples of those who were suspected of dying from the Flu it Flu like infections. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 12:56:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 12:53:21 PM
Is there any actual way of proving it though is the question?  People who would have recovered from the virus presumptively wouldn't test positive this far after the fact.  I suppose tests could be run on tissue samples of those who were suspected of dying from the Flu it Flu like infections.

I think they just invented a serological test to see if anyone has had it and recovered. But - as with the tests for active coronavirus - excuse after excuse is being offered as to why we don't have this test in the U.S.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 27, 2020, 12:51:47 PM
The first several known cases were all related to travel to China. If it was in the US in December, it would have spread quickly by January, many of which would have had unknown sources.
Those are the cases that occurred after China outbreak; if the virus was spreading in US in November - it was distinctly before Chinese events
A hybrid scenario is also possible, with the virus spreading between people as relatively benign - until it mutated into a deadly form. The second event definitely happened in China,  but the original bat to human transition can become more interesting. I wonder if bats are sampled for viruses in US on a regular basis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 01:00:17 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 12:56:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 12:53:21 PM
Is there any actual way of proving it though is the question?  People who would have recovered from the virus presumptively wouldn't test positive this far after the fact.  I suppose tests could be run on tissue samples of those who were suspected of dying from the Flu it Flu like infections.

I think they just invented a serological test to see if anyone has had it and recovered. But - as with the tests for active coronavirus - excuse after excuse is being offered as to why we don't have this test in the U.S.
Those are mass produced in China. I don't think US will get too many until a profound apology for the "Chinese virus" is given. 50-year free trade agreement may be a good deal to offer...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 01:05:44 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 12:53:21 PM
Is there any actual way of proving it though is the question?  People who would have recovered from the virus presumptively wouldn't test positive this far after the fact.  I suppose tests could be run on tissue samples of those who were suspected of dying from the Flu it Flu like infections.
Exhumation of those who died with flu-like symptoms may work as a source of RNA for PCR. For example, they could recreate the Spanish flu virus from bodies of those buried in Alaska. Yes, those were in permafrost - but it is a much longer timespan
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 27, 2020, 01:20:09 PM
Chesapeake Expressway (VA-168) is going AET due to COVID-19. In the meantime, most people will continue shunpiking it anyways. The road is practically dead year-round until the summer months.

QuoteCHESAPEAKE EXPRESSWAY TOLL ALERT
As an important safety measure during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chesapeake Expressway will temporarily stop accepting cash and credit cards at the toll booths effective Friday, March 27 at noon until further notice. Tolls will still be required, but will be collected through an electronic process. For customers who do not have an E-ZPass account or use the GoToll mobile app, the toll system will capture an image of the license plate and a bill will be mailed to the registered owner of the vehicle. As part of this initiative, customers should continue driving through the toll plaza and pay attention to overhead and portable signs. Normal cash toll collection will resume as soon as it becomes safe for motorists and our staff members. Please see the information below regarding E-ZPass and the GoToll mobile app.

http://www.chesapeakeexpressway.com/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 01:43:08 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Depends on when the endless excuses about the lack of tests ends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on March 27, 2020, 01:43:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 27, 2020, 12:51:47 PM
The first several known cases were all related to travel to China. If it was in the US in December, it would have spread quickly by January, many of which would have had unknown sources.
Those are the cases that occurred after China outbreak; if the virus was spreading in US in November - it was distinctly before Chinese events
A hybrid scenario is also possible, with the virus spreading between people as relatively benign - until it mutated into a deadly form. The second event definitely happened in China,  but the original bat to human transition can become more interesting. I wonder if bats are sampled for viruses in US on a regular basis.
It's believed that patient 0 in China was infected in November, so if they infected someone who traveled to the US shortly thereafter, US transmission in late November/December is not unbelievable, especially if the article I read recently suggesting that there are a LOT more people who get this that never development symptoms than we thought (and therefore we're at a later portion of the outbreak than we think) is correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 27, 2020, 01:46:06 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

The Emperor says by Easter. I'm sticking close to home until the real experts say it's OK to travel. I've got lots of cleaning I can do and maybe prep some stuff for e-bay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: thspfc on March 27, 2020, 01:49:15 PM
My guess is that it will peak in late April/early May, and then begin to slow down. Of course, it might never die out all the way, it will only continue to dwindle until either a) the last infected person recovers or dies, or b) a vaccine is developed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:05:06 PM
Quote from: Rothman on March 26, 2020, 12:16:42 PMAre you in the medical field?

I am not.  I have about as much expertise in medicine as the stable genius currently running things.  However, I know my way around the back of an envelope, and as this crisis has unfolded, I have done some background reading.  Our World in Data has a synopsis (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data) of COVID-19 issues from a data analysis perspective that I have personally found helpful.

Quote from: kalvado on March 26, 2020, 12:57:19 PMWould you take my statement about 1.4 and 1.6% fatality rate as well?

This is latest published data, and it actually rings well with a few other numbers I see. Much lower for <30, suchs to be in 60+ cohort though, moreso 70+.

I would, though in all honesty I haven't followed that corner of the debate closely enough to try to referee.  The basic intuition is that the more you test, the closer your case fatality rate comes to the underlying infection fatality rate.

South Korea, AIUI, has come very close to "test everything that moves," and their percentage of over-65s is almost identical to the US'--14.42% for them versus 16.08% for us.  At the moment they have 9,332 cases and 132 deaths, which is a CFR of 1.4%.  But there is still room for their CFR to go higher because only 4,528 of the 9,332 are counted as having recovered.  I am not aware that South Korea has had to deal with ICU overload at all.

China outside Hubei has posted an overall CFR of 0.8%.  There has been some question as to whether Chinese numbers in the numerator and denominator can be trusted, but personally I think this has a lot to do with over-65s forming just 10.8% of the Chinese population.  China's overall CFR has been about 3% and the consensus is that this is partly because of ICU overload in Wuhan.

In Italy the over-65s form 23.1% of the population.  When age-stratified CFRs have been compared between China and Italy, they have been found to be almost the same up to about age 65, at which point the Italian numbers begin to be significantly higher.  This is thought to be partly because Italy has a fairly high smoking rate (24% for population as a whole, 28% for men) and also the highest prevalence of antibiotic resistance in Europe.  Since Italy has socialized medicine, but China basically does not, I think the Italian numbers may also reflect better health care allowing elders to survive longer with comorbidities, until COVID-19 comes along and kills them off.

As for us, I think we will be very lucky to achieve a CFR as low as South Korea's, not just because we are not testing nearly enough, but also because we are headed toward widespread ICU overload.

Quote from: jakeroot on March 26, 2020, 09:45:49 PMI'm not trying to be overly critical, but I feel like a ton of the issues with this country and coronavirus has been our inability to comprehend basic consequences from simple tasks like going to the gas station, or walking along a sidewalk near other people. People jogging by are putting the rest of us at risk from their excessive breathing. This is serious stuff. Think about all those people that you came into contact with during your journey, physically and verbally. Are you 100% sure that none of them had the virus? I suppose there's no way to be sure, but then that leads back to my original point: why risk it at all?

I can't speak for Kphoger, but as someone who lives in the same county he does, I wonder if your perspective is colored by Washington state being a week or two ahead of the curve in terms of measures to contain spread.  On another forum I frequent, a regular who lives in your state posted on March 4 that her husband had been instructed to work from home.

Here in Sedgwick County, the first sign I personally had that normal life was about to end was an email on March 10 from the Y advising me that they would be upgrading their sanitary measures.  I continued to exercise as normal (Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule) through Friday, March 13.  It was not until Sunday, March 15, that the Y announced it would be closing indefinitely (reviewable daily in the first instance; they later suspended membership charges).  Although city leisure facilities (including our library and art museum) closed to the public beginning on Tuesday, March 17, and many restaurants began either closing altogether or accepting takeaway orders only, we have been on mandatory lockdown only since midnight on the night of Tuesday, March 24.

And, ultimately, I think there has been a considerable amount of spread in terms of how we, individually, have been coming to terms with what all of this means for daily life.  I think it was on March 11 (my next-to-last day at the gym) that I walked past a guy watching a wall-mounted TV in the locker room.  It was a sports channel, the chyron was saying something about league cancellations, and the man looked like he wanted to cry (https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/weeping-frenchman-1940/).

Meanwhile, on the other forum, we had a woman talking as late as March 15 about how she and her husband were in Dallas hoping to fly back to Burkina Faso (which they call home, I think because they are missionaries), and another was worrying about whether she and her husband would be able to go on a cruise with their kids and grandkids in early April (!).  I was sitting reading this and thinking, "Not gonna happen," but as this crisis has unfolded, I realize now how slow I was to understand both (1) that fighting this thing is inherently a lot harder than SARS back in 2003, and (2) the gravity of the implications of restricting testing we have been doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:19:00 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PMSo how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

It really depends on what your chosen endpoint is.

I expect to see some relaxation of lockdowns late in the summer, depending on how effective they are in stopping further spread and allowing the health care system to catch up with backlogged cases, but I don't expect a return to full normal until there is a vaccine or a treatment (effective across all age groups) that ends the capacity of this disease to drive ICU utilization.

Wuhan has been under a strict lockdown for two months.  The ones in the West have been more porous, so they may be less effective and thus require more time to pull the basic reproduction number under unity.  Two months under lockdown from now is essentially until first of June.  How much more time beyond two months we will need has yet to be determined.

There is a growing consensus that any unwinding of lockdowns has to be buttressed by effective and widely available testing.  We can't continue testing as we have been if we want to lick this.  There has also been talk of some kind of temporary credentialing system that would allow people who have recovered from COVID-19 (and thus presumably have immunity) to undertake jobs and tasks carrying a higher risk of infection.  I am not sure we want to go in that direction because it will entail setting up a bureaucracy and risks entrenching discrimination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 02:33:54 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 27, 2020, 01:43:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 27, 2020, 12:51:47 PM
The first several known cases were all related to travel to China. If it was in the US in December, it would have spread quickly by January, many of which would have had unknown sources.
Those are the cases that occurred after China outbreak; if the virus was spreading in US in November - it was distinctly before Chinese events
A hybrid scenario is also possible, with the virus spreading between people as relatively benign - until it mutated into a deadly form. The second event definitely happened in China,  but the original bat to human transition can become more interesting. I wonder if bats are sampled for viruses in US on a regular basis.
It's believed that patient 0 in China was infected in November, so if they infected someone who traveled to the US shortly thereafter, US transmission in late November/December is not unbelievable, especially if the article I read recently suggesting that there are a LOT more people who get this that never development symptoms than we thought (and therefore we're at a later portion of the outbreak than we think) is correct.
The question is why it flared up much faster in Wuhan than at any other spot which saw infection earlier in the season. Wuhan flare-up is pretty well documented by now, and it is unlikely a similar process can go unnoticed elsewhere.
I still think that Wuhan being where the mutation of a milder virus took place can be a better explanation than anything else. I hear about some strange infections similar to COVID - not with COVID mortality rates, though - from friends in many countries; and from multiple corners of the US. Could be two waves from China, could be the first one originating anywhere else.
There are a few reports of human to pet transmission by now, showing that virus jumps between species, and eating massive amount of wildelife may be an unrelated issue to the case at hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 27, 2020, 02:37:48 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

I think we currently lack enough data to definitively know. 
here's an interesting article regarding various scenarios about how this plays out:
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/

I don't think we really ever get back to normal for a couple years and even then, society is going to have a shared sense of PTSD regarding what we'll have gone through.

But I do hope cases peak by June.  People need to take precautions seriously.  A friend of a friend just passed away and he was only 40.  This is deadly serious. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 02:39:17 PM
A couple sources said the new cases will probably peak in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's moving faster than some people thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 02:41:26 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 27, 2020, 02:37:48 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

I think we currently lack enough data to definitively know. 
here's an interesting article regarding various scenarios about how this plays out:
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/

I don't think we really ever get back to normal for a couple years and even then, society is going to have a shared sense of PTSD regarding what we'll have gone through.

But I do hope cases peak by June.  People need to take precautions seriously.  A friend of a friend just passed away and he was only 40.  This is deadly serious.

My primary concern in the aftermath of all this with COVID-19 is this really how people are going to react when the next big virus (even a seasonal one) rolls around?  Things tend to be cooling off gradually in day to day life now that there is some expectations on what to anticipate.  But that said, repeated instances of doing things like closing businesses and closing schools will have a huge negative effect no matter how well intended they may be.  Will society at large be so willing to do what is being done next time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 02:47:26 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 02:39:17 PM
A couple sources said the new cases will probably peak in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's moving faster than some people thought.
That would mean mass graves in NYC....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 27, 2020, 02:56:14 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 27, 2020, 01:46:06 PM
The Emperor says by Easter. I'm sticking close to home until the real experts say it's OK to travel. I've got lots of cleaning I can do and maybe prep some stuff for e-bay.

What the President says may not mean much on the ground, given that state and local governments largely control the pandemic response. At least in my area, they are taking Federal guidance with a grain of salt, and are unlikely to go along with an Easter target unless the data quickly start looking a lot better than now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on March 27, 2020, 04:21:02 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:19:00 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PMSo how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

It really depends on what your chosen endpoint is.

LIke JN Winkler said, it depends on your point of reference. There have been other viruses/diseases that in theory were eliminated, only to make a comeback years later. If/when a vaccine comes out for COVID-19, I'm curious what the anti-vaxers will do. Will COVID-19 be serious enough for them to change their tune?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on March 27, 2020, 04:29:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 02:39:17 PM
A couple sources said the new cases will probably peak in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's moving faster than some people thought.

I'm kind of leaning that way as most of the new cases being reported were already being spread prior to mass shutdowns.

Speaking of travel, I went (by car) to Florida the last weekend of February (when there were very few cases nationwide). I went to Universal for five days and I also went to an after-hours event at the Magic Kingdom. While at the parks, I noticed hand sanitizer stations being placed in high-traffic places and more frequent cleaning. Disney and Universal announced they were closing the night before I left Florida (which also happened to be my last day at Universal). I noticed some precautions being taken on my drive home, such as doors being propped open at rest areas. The day after I arrived back in Michigan, the state announced that bars and restaurants would have to go take-out only (which is in effect until at least April 13).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 27, 2020, 04:44:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 02:39:17 PM
A couple sources said the new cases will probably peak in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's moving faster than some people thought.

What were those sources, incidentally?  Curious to see what data sets they're using. 
Don't get me wrong, that'd be awesome if we peak in that time frame.  I'm just skeptical because the trajectory is still on a strong climb and this stuff is exponential in growth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 04:46:20 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 27, 2020, 04:44:27 PM
What were those sources, incidentally?  Curious to see what data sets they're using. 
Don't get me wrong, that'd be awesome if we peak in that time frame.  I'm just skeptical because the trajectory is still on a strong climb and this stuff is exponential in growth.

I think Cuomo said it would peak then. If it climbs faster though, it would peak earlier. It would overwhelm hospitals, but it would peak earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 27, 2020, 04:51:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 02:33:54 PM
There are a few reports of human to pet transmission by now, showing that virus jumps between species, and eating massive amount of wildelife may be an unrelated issue to the case at hand.

My understanding is that these have been debunked as false positives due to virus material from humans making contact with the animals. Animals are not actually contracting the disease. That is to say, a cat or dog can only "get" COVID-19 in the same way a keyboard or door handle could.

CDC hasn't been exploring this much–more important things to do–and thus is using vague and noncommittal language about it. My wife is a former vet tech, though, and still has contacts in the field; she said that a major veterinary disease-testing company has been conducting their own studies that show that pets do not contract COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 27, 2020, 05:05:01 PM
A stay-at-home order has been issued in NC, which will take effect this Monday at 5:00pm and last until April 29. The order also bans gatherings of more than 10 people and requires people to stay at least 6 feet apart from others.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29 (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 27, 2020, 05:15:54 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 27, 2020, 05:05:01 PM
A stay-at-home order has been issued in NC, which will take effect this Monday at 5:00pm and last until April 29. The order also bans gatherings of more than 10 people and requires people to stay at least 6 feet apart from others.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29 (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29)
Willing to bet Virginia will be next.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 05:39:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:05:06 PM
I can't speak for Kphoger, but as someone who lives in the same county he does, I wonder if your perspective is colored by Washington state being a week or two ahead of the curve in terms of measures to contain spread.

[...]

Meanwhile, on the other forum, we had a woman talking as late as March 15 about how she and her husband were in Dallas hoping to fly back to Burkina Faso (which they call home, I think because they are missionaries), and another was worrying about whether she and her husband would be able to go on a cruise with their kids and grandkids in early April (!).

Heck, just two days before we left–Thursday 3/13–one of our members was flown out to Pittsburgh for a two-day conference.  (One more reason I was stressed out this trip:  he was scheduled to fly back into Wichita around midnight the night before we left, with a tight connection in Dallas.)  His conference ended up being canceled, but that was a last-minute decision, and he ended up visiting several museums in Pittsburgh to pass the time instead.  Yes, boys and girls, museums in Pittsburgh were still open the day before we left to go to Mexico.  It certainly wasn't Lockdown Land in this part of the country yet.  At that point, the virus was mainly seen as a Pacific Northwest and New York State thing.

Quote from: DaBigE on March 27, 2020, 04:21:02 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:19:00 PM

Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

It really depends on what your chosen endpoint is.

LIke JN Winkler said, it depends on your point of reference. There have been other viruses/diseases that in theory were eliminated, only to make a comeback years later. If/when a vaccine comes out for COVID-19, I'm curious what the anti-vaxers will do. Will COVID-19 be serious enough for them to change their tune?

News outlets are reporting that somewhere around 10% of coronavirus patients in China who were given the all-clear based on a negative test result are now testing positive again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 27, 2020, 05:45:24 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 04:46:20 PM
I think Cuomo said it would peak then. If it climbs faster though, it would peak earlier. It would overwhelm hospitals, but it would peak earlier.

Do you know if he meant for NY or the US in general?  It would make sense for NY to peak in that time frame, just given other regions and their curves. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 27, 2020, 05:48:15 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 27, 2020, 05:15:54 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 27, 2020, 05:05:01 PM
A stay-at-home order has been issued in NC, which will take effect this Monday at 5:00pm and last until April 29. The order also bans gatherings of more than 10 people and requires people to stay at least 6 feet apart from others.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29 (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29)
Willing to bet Virginia will be next.

Agreed, but it doesn't look like it will be anytime soon.

https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/virginia-governor-explains-why-he-has-not-issued-stay-at-home-order (https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/virginia-governor-explains-why-he-has-not-issued-stay-at-home-order)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 05:48:28 PM
Quote from: kwellada on March 27, 2020, 05:45:24 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 04:46:20 PM
I think Cuomo said it would peak then. If it climbs faster though, it would peak earlier. It would overwhelm hospitals, but it would peak earlier.

Do you know if he meant for NY or the US in general?  It would make sense for NY to peak in that time frame, just given other regions and their curves.

I don't know if he meant just New York, or if he meant new cases or deaths. If he meant deaths, the new cases would peak earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on March 27, 2020, 06:03:14 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 05:39:36 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:05:06 PM
I can't speak for Kphoger, but as someone who lives in the same county he does, I wonder if your perspective is colored by Washington state being a week or two ahead of the curve in terms of measures to contain spread.

[...]

Meanwhile, on the other forum, we had a woman talking as late as March 15 about how she and her husband were in Dallas hoping to fly back to Burkina Faso (which they call home, I think because they are missionaries), and another was worrying about whether she and her husband would be able to go on a cruise with their kids and grandkids in early April (!).

Heck, just two days before we left—Thursday 3/13—one of our members was flown out to Pittsburgh for a two-day conference.  (One more reason I was stressed out this trip:  he was scheduled to fly back into Wichita around midnight the night before we left, with a tight connection in Dallas.)  His conference ended up being canceled, but that was a last-minute decision, and he ended up visiting several museums in Pittsburgh to pass the time instead.  Yes, boys and girls, museums in Pittsburgh were still open the day before we left to go to Mexico.  It certainly wasn't Lockdown Land in this part of the country yet.  At that point, the virus was mainly seen as a Pacific Northwest and New York State thing.

Quote from: DaBigE on March 27, 2020, 04:21:02 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:19:00 PM

Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PM
So how long do y’all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I’m guessing mid-July.

It really depends on what your chosen endpoint is.

LIke JN Winkler said, it depends on your point of reference. There have been other viruses/diseases that in theory were eliminated, only to make a comeback years later. If/when a vaccine comes out for COVID-19, I'm curious what the anti-vaxers will do. Will COVID-19 be serious enough for them to change their tune?

News outlets are reporting that somewhere around 10% of coronavirus patients in China who were given the all-clear based on a negative test result are now testing positive again.

That bit of news reminds me of a joke: What's the last word you want to hear in a nuclear reactor control room?  "Whoops!".

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 27, 2020, 07:01:33 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 02:19:00 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on March 27, 2020, 01:41:12 PMSo how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?
Last week, I guessed late April.
Now I'm guessing mid-July.

[...]

I expect to see some relaxation of lockdowns late in the summer, depending on how effective they are in stopping further spread and allowing the health care system to catch up with backlogged cases, but I don't expect a return to full normal until there is a vaccine or a treatment (effective across all age groups) that ends the capacity of this disease to drive ICU utilization.

I think that is the increasingly obvious correct answer, and it's surprising that such has not been more widely accepted and acknowledged yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 09:30:53 PM
This has been receiving a fair amount of attention across the news media:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It shows date of projected peak for the US as a whole (April 14) and various states (states with less aggressive growth in case count will peak later but are less likely to overrun treatment resource).

I think it may be optimistic, depending on how much the lockdowns "leak," but even so it forecasts a little over one month (April 2 to May 5) with more than 1000 US deaths per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 27, 2020, 09:38:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 09:30:53 PM
This has been receiving a fair amount of attention across the news media:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It shows date of projected peak for the US as a whole (April 14) and various states (states with less aggressive growth in case count will peak later but are less likely to overrun treatment resource).

I think it may be optimistic, depending on how much the lockdowns "leak," but even so it forecasts a little over one month (April 2 to May 5) with more than 1000 US deaths per day.

So I figure new cases will peak around April 9. I usually look at new cases, because I can at least do my part to prevent that by not going around sneezing on people. I can't prevent the deaths of people who are already ill, because I'm not a doctor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on March 27, 2020, 09:50:06 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 05:39:36 PM
News outlets are reporting that somewhere around 10% of coronavirus patients in China who were given the all-clear based on a negative test result are now testing positive again.
The reports of reinfection make me wonder if coronavirus is like Shingles, laying dormant and potentially reactivating after recovery instead of going away.  Or maybe it's like the common cold (which is a coronavirus, after all) and people don't really build immunity to it, which could be problematic for counting on a vaccine to save us from lockdowns.  If so, we might be stuck with a choice between letting lots of people die, permanent social distancing, or massively increased hospital ICU capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 27, 2020, 09:57:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
Note also that 50,000 die each year from norovirus, and that virus group has been known since the late 60's.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on March 27, 2020, 10:01:27 PM
I just found a news report about a kid who's making masks for doctors and nurses with a 3-D Printer;
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2020/03/27/pasco-teen-uses-3d-printer-to-make-reusable-masks-to-protect-against-covid-19

He's trying to get money to make more:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/3d-printed-hospital-masks?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link-tip&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet

He's also offering the software for it to other people with 3-D Printers. Elmhurst Hospital could really use this, but so could many others.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 27, 2020, 10:28:57 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 27, 2020, 09:57:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
Note also that 50,000 die each year from norovirus, and that virus group has been known since the late 60's.
Think about it in such a way - this is despite most draconian restrictions in decades; covid already kills more people per day than any other infection - and keeps growing. NYC will be a hell on Earth before this is over. It is already pretty hellish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on March 27, 2020, 10:30:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
IMHO, the number of indirect deaths might be as much if not more than COVID-19 deaths. Two weeks from now, we'll have a better idea on how this will play out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 11:23:00 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on March 27, 2020, 10:30:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
IMHO, the number of indirect deaths might be as much if not more than COVID-19 deaths. Two weeks from now, we'll have a better idea on how this will play out.

So if the COVID-19 death totals come out to less than the current flu will it be declared a "Social success"  or "overreaction?"   I'm sure there would be plenty of spin both ways. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 11:55:44 PM
Something that I've had some wondering about since this current outbreak got big was what will the ramifications be on things like mass transit plans and things like the New Urbanism movement?  It seems that media sources in California are starting to raise that question:

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/27/california-saw-dense-housing-near-transit-as-its-future-what-now-1269263
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 28, 2020, 12:25:35 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 11:23:00 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on March 27, 2020, 10:30:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
IMHO, the number of indirect deaths might be as much if not more than COVID-19 deaths. Two weeks from now, we'll have a better idea on how this will play out.
So if the COVID-19 death totals come out to less than the current flu will it be declared a "Social success"  or "overreaction?"   I'm sure there would be plenty of spin both ways.

I mean, we've basically shuttered the economy already, doesn't that speak to the fact that it's too dangerous to find out what would happen if we let it spread unhindered (like we do the flu)?
I sure hope no one is doubting that coronavirus death toll could easily surpass the flu if we didn't take all the measures we've been taking. Whether the exact count ends up higher or lower seems irrelevant in the big picture, and doesn't change the fact that we've stumbled into a major 2-in-1 health and economic crisis that it's simply too late to turn back from. The effect this has had is simply not comparable to the flu on any level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 28, 2020, 12:49:34 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 28, 2020, 12:25:35 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 11:23:00 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on March 27, 2020, 10:30:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
IMHO, the number of indirect deaths might be as much if not more than COVID-19 deaths. Two weeks from now, we'll have a better idea on how this will play out.
So if the COVID-19 death totals come out to less than the current flu will it be declared a "Social success"  or "overreaction?"   I'm sure there would be plenty of spin both ways.

I mean, we've basically shuttered the economy already, doesn't that speak to the fact that it's too dangerous to find out what would happen if we let it spread unhindered (like we do the flu)?
I sure hope no one is doubting that coronavirus death toll could easily surpass the flu if we didn't take all the measures we've been taking. Whether the exact count ends up higher or lower seems irrelevant in the big picture, and doesn't change the fact that we've stumbled into a major 2-in-1 health and economic crisis that it's simply too late to turn back from. The effect this has had is simply not comparable to the flu on any level.

Granted the present situation isn't over but it is a question if the present Coronavirus will even surpass the Swine Flue mortality rates of 2009.  That's what I was getting upthread with the approach to that pandemic almost being the total opposite of what is going on now.  What is really unnerving is that the estimates generally range for a total fatalities for H1N1 coming out between 150,000 to 575,000 world wide.

So in that sense, why the reaction now to this virus but not back then?  It really is an intriguing question as to what changed that shifted public opinion and governmental action towards trying to curve the rate of infection on this level?   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 28, 2020, 01:18:25 AM
The weekly CDC surveillance for anyone is interested:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on March 28, 2020, 02:09:17 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 28, 2020, 12:49:34 AM
Granted the present situation isn't over but it is a question if the present Coronavirus will even surpass the Swine Flue mortality rates of 2009.  That's what I was getting upthread with the approach to that pandemic almost being the total opposite of what is going on now.  What is really unnerving is that the estimates generally range for a total fatalities for H1N1 coming out between 150,000 to 575,000 world wide.

So in that sense, why the reaction now to this virus but not back then?

Because you're looking at the wrong metric. The reaction to shut everything down and tell everyone they need to stay home in response to Covid isn't because of how deadly it is - it's because of how quickly, easily, and stealthily it spreads.

H1N1 may have killed a whole bunch of people (just as all flu strains do), but its natural spread through the population was much slower, and it was a problem that remained at a manageable level with everyone mostly continuing to go about their lives as normal. Covid, on the other hand, we know empirically can overwhelm hospitals very quickly if left unchecked, so it is necessary to take more aggressive measures to get it and keep it in check.

Also, if Covid were like most other viruses, aggressive measures to keep it in check would only really need to entail quarantining the sick - everyone else would be able to continue going about their lives mostly as normal. But because of Covid's propensity to spread asymptomatically, we're unable to tell with nearly sufficient reliability who is sick and who isn't - thus, we're reduced to the extremely blunt measure of quarantining everyone as much as is feasible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on March 28, 2020, 02:34:05 AM
It appears that lottery ticket sales are down.  The minimum jackpot increase for Powerball is $10,000,000.  It's been increasing that much. Sometimes that happens, but most of the time it goes up faster.  Because of the high minimum, there's less variability.  The Mega Millions minimum increase is $5,000,000, and it's been increasing at or barely above that rate, which is substantially less than normal.  After 12 jackpot rolls, it's now at $113,000,000.  Looking at last year, after 12 rolls it would be in at least the 150s, and twice it was over 200.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 404inthe404 on March 28, 2020, 05:22:50 AM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 05:39:36 PM
News outlets are reporting that somewhere around 10% of coronavirus patients in China who were given the all-clear based on a negative test result are now testing positive again.

I am in Australia and everyone is very alarmed. Victoria, where I am, is going to go into full lockdown at any moment.

I was watching the ABC, which is Australia's PBS, and they were interviewing a doctor and they asked her about that 10% re-infection. What was notable was a complete lack of concern on her end - she said that these are people that still have the virus but what's notable is they are asymptomatic and they are not infecting their immediate family or anyone else in close quarters. So it seems like that's a bit of sensationalism that generates some click revenue and not really something to be worried about.

The other one I saw was that your lungs are permanently damaged after recovering from CV. I saw this a lot about a week or two ago, I don't know if this is still making the rounds. Well, I personally tracked this one down myself. It came from a study of 12 recovered patients in Hong Kong, where 3 of them didn't have full lung usage after 30 days. A far, far cry from most people's lungs were permanently damaged. I believe there are many illnesses that leave the lungs weak after recovery for some time, bronchitis being one of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 404inthe404 on March 28, 2020, 05:38:25 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 11:23:00 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on March 27, 2020, 10:30:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.
IMHO, the number of indirect deaths might be as much if not more than COVID-19 deaths. Two weeks from now, we'll have a better idea on how this will play out.
So if the COVID-19 death totals come out to less than the current flu will it be declared a "Social success"  or "overreaction?"   I'm sure there would be plenty of spin both ways.

It's going to be an overreaction. As long as CV is only a few multiples of the regular flu, that number will be disregarded, and the absolutely insane predictions made by a lot of people including politicians are going to be scrutinized and a lot of people are going to lose credibility. There's so much nonsense that people are posting on Facebook - some guy is on my feed going around like a dozen times a day with predictions about how a million will die in the US by end of April if we don't go into total lockdown right now. These things aren't going to happen. In a few months time, the focus will be on the histrionics that many people were playing and how it wasn't worth shutting down the economy.

I hate to say it because I don't like him, didn't vote for him, and won't vote for him,  but I feel as though this cemented Trump's re-election. A *lot* of people on the left went so overboard with their predictions when there was really no reason to do so, that there is going to be a widespread credibility problem. If CV kills "only" 3x what the flu does, the sentiment of moderates and independents will turn against the politicians who are publicly stating Trump is mishandling this crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on March 28, 2020, 06:43:35 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 27, 2020, 11:55:44 PM
Something that I've had some wondering about since this current outbreak got big was what will the ramifications be on things like mass transit plans and things like the New Urbanism movement?  It seems that media sources in California are starting to raise that question:

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/27/california-saw-dense-housing-near-transit-as-its-future-what-now-1269263

I'm hardly the biggest fan of new urbanism, but I really hope this doesn't screw up plans to extend the Second Avenue Subway. Or build any other proposed subway lines in NYC.


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 28, 2020, 09:32:55 AM
Sat outside by my firepit last night. We're about 1/4 - 1/2 mile from I-295. Sounded like a fair amount of traffic, and could easily hear the louder cars flying down the road.

We're also near PHL and without the leaves on the trees we can can see the flights as they are on their normal apporach to the airport (they fly near the Walt Whitman Bridge and the stadium complex). I think we took notice to 1 the entire time we were outside - over an hour. They normally land at a rate of roughly every 2 minutes.  Throughout the night sky,  air traffic was extremely sparse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 28, 2020, 10:04:00 AM
I hear you on the airport thing - I live a few minutes from Washington National (DCA), and it's a quite similar dropoff in flight activity.

Ironically, it's no quieter because the real noise culprits, low-flying helicopters continue to fly over my neighborhood, which sits along I-395 (and is hence a designated transit corridor)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on March 28, 2020, 10:05:36 AM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.

That's partly because we're doing the right thing in shutting things down so the spread is contained and hospitals get overrun.  You don't let a virus that is more contagious than the flu with a higher general death rate AND no vaccine/treatment run wild. 

People are trying to downplay the deaths, but remember this: only 3000 people died on 9/11 and everything changed.  It may be a strange comparison, but coronavirus IS NOT the usual flu, nor should people conflate the two. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 28, 2020, 10:27:25 AM
Quote from: kwellada on March 28, 2020, 10:05:36 AM
Quote from: kphoger on March 27, 2020, 09:45:13 PM
Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.

That's partly because we're doing the right thing in shutting things down so the spread is contained and hospitals get overrun.  You don't let a virus that is more contagious than the flu with a higher general death rate AND no vaccine/treatment run wild. 

People are trying to downplay the deaths, but remember this: only 3000 people died on 9/11 and everything changed.  It may be a strange comparison, but coronavirus IS NOT the usual flu, nor should people conflate the two.

I could be wrong but I believe he was referring the U.S. death total during this flu season which was somewhere north of 23,000 on the CDC website.  Compared to the flu the one thing that seems to be certain is that COVID-19 potentially spreads faster (fat faster) and the range of symptoms seems to be far more diverse (from nothing upward).  How deadly the COVID-19 is probably isn't the main issue that concerns health officials, it seems to be the chances it could put a lot of people rapidly in need of medical care.  To that end, the state goal of most of public officials hasn't been to "stop"  the viral spread but rather slow it down.  True prevention measures would have to be far more drastic than what you see right now to stop a viral spread State Side, even then there is a likelihood it wouldn't amount to more than a slow down. 

Comparing this to 9/11 probably is a good analogy.  Yes, only around 3,000 people died in the immediate effects but the aftermath had far reaching consequences that still affect everyday life for a lot of people.  So what are the consequences going to be here?  Is this something that people are going to forget about in five years or will it go the other way? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on March 28, 2020, 01:01:46 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 27, 2020, 09:30:53 PM
I think it may be optimistic, depending on how much the lockdowns "leak," but even so it forecasts a little over one month (April 2 to May 5) with more than 1000 US deaths per day.

I think the lockdowns will be leaking, if not openly defied the longer they go on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 28, 2020, 01:47:30 PM
I ended up going to Home Depot and Vons this morning on an errand run.  Home Depot had a whole line set up to funnel people in 50 at a time, fortunately I was way below their limit.  Vons had only one entrance open and was trying to get people to use the unmanned registers.  Both stores had almost no crowds and a bunch of water on hand.  I saw a decent amount of paper products at Vons and even eggs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 28, 2020, 03:15:52 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 28, 2020, 09:32:55 AM
Sat outside by my firepit last night. We're about 1/4 - 1/2 mile from I-295. Sounded like a fair amount of traffic, and could easily hear the louder cars flying down the road.

It's quieter overall, though, so the noise is probably just a bit more noticeable.

Depending on the winds, I can often hear the traffic on NY-590 from outside my house, and that's more than 2 miles away. I used to notice it most in the early morning (pre-7AM), but in the past few weeks I've been noticing it in the afternoon as well. My thought is that the traffic on all the closer roads used to drown out 590 in the afternoon, and now they're so much quieter that they don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: route56 on March 28, 2020, 06:55:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 25, 2020, 07:53:14 PM
Kansas still doesn't have a statewide lockdown, but my county (Sedgwick) has had one since midnight last night.  I went out to wash the cars--it was sunny and warm (almost 80° F), so it was time to get rid of the last bits of salt residue clinging to the underbodies.

UPDATE!: A state-wide stay-at-home order goes into effect for Kansas on Monday

My home county (Jefferson) went into 'lockdown' this morning [3/28/20], along with Osage County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 28, 2020, 07:17:36 PM
Is it... dare I say... an advantage to share a state with the Big Apple at a time of crisis like this?
The more I hear reports trickling in of other states going into lockdown, the more I realize that our situation in Upstate NY just might be a blessing in disguise: the rest of the state rolls with what NYC does, of course, so we get the advantage of the spread being curtailed very early relative to how much the virus had spread, while still being hundreds of miles removed from the physical epicenter of the outbreak.

So I guess we're indebted to NYC for forcing the rest of the state to shut down when it did. There's no telling when a theoretical separate state containing the non-NYC areas of NY would have shut down, but I guarantee it would have been a week or so later, at minimum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 28, 2020, 07:19:05 PM
Oregon will allow self-service gas pumping statewide in order to avoid person-to-person contact (but the virus can spread on pumps and buttons)

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1243994797976588289
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on March 28, 2020, 08:03:35 PM
Where's those screenshots of Oregonians posting to social media that the world is going to end if they have to pump their own gas?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: route56 on March 28, 2020, 08:05:22 PM
Quote from: Bruce on March 28, 2020, 07:19:05 PM
Oregon will allow self-service gas pumping statewide in order to avoid person-to-person contact (but the virus can spread on pumps and buttons)

OTOH, the one local station that still offers full service is encouraging their customers to stay in their car by offering the full service at self-service prices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 28, 2020, 09:20:11 PM
Self serve gas was never brought up in NJ, and really does seem counterintuitive.  Currently the only thing that's touched where transmission could occur is the credit card or cash. Self service, people are touching much more, as mentioned above. Not to mention being within 6 feet of others if others are nearby.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 28, 2020, 09:52:31 PM
So basically it's a good time to visit Oregon and not get annoyed by having to interact with a gas station attendant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on March 28, 2020, 10:12:04 PM
Fortunately for the state government, the first day of stay at home in Minnesota coincided with miserable weather statewide.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on March 28, 2020, 11:40:45 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 28, 2020, 07:17:36 PM
Is it... dare I say... an advantage to share a state with the Big Apple at a time of crisis like this?
The more I hear reports trickling in of other states going into lockdown, the more I realize that our situation in Upstate NY just might be a blessing in disguise: the rest of the state rolls with what NYC does, of course, so we get the advantage of the spread being curtailed very early relative to how much the virus had spread, while still being hundreds of miles removed from the physical epicenter of the outbreak.

So I guess we're indebted to NYC for forcing the rest of the state to shut down when it did. There's no telling when a theoretical separate state containing the non-NYC areas of NY would have shut down, but I guarantee it would have been a week or so later, at minimum.
On the other hand, an upstate that was a separate state would not be subject to the whims to states that don't want anything to do with people from NYC right now.  Rhode Island in particular has gotten draconian with respect to people from NY.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490019-cuomo-threatens-to-sue-ri-over-new-coronavirus-policy-targeting-ny
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 29, 2020, 12:07:27 AM
Anyone doing some updates with their highway sites, pages, or social media sites given the Virus stuff has most of shut down?  I've been doing a crap ton of writing this past week trying to finish two series I started back in 2018.  I haven't had a chance to make a dent like this week (four articles just today) in about three years.  I've also been trying to put at least one item up on the Facebook page daily from the photo albums and blog series.  I noticed that on Facebook we're getting a lot more comments than we usually do by a large margin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on March 29, 2020, 01:19:54 AM
Over/under on how many Oregonians will light themselves on fire during the pandemic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on March 29, 2020, 04:34:20 AM
Quote from: US 89 on March 29, 2020, 01:19:54 AM
Over/under on how many Oregonians will light themselves on fire during the pandemic?

There will be blood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on March 29, 2020, 06:53:01 AM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 29, 2020, 04:34:20 AM
Quote from: US 89 on March 29, 2020, 01:19:54 AM
Over/under on how many Oregonians will light themselves on fire during the pandemic?

There will be blood.

Because, you know...
Quote"I've lived in this state all my life and I REFUSE to pump my own gas. I had to do it once in California while visiting my brother and almost died doing it. This a service only qualified people should perform. I will literally park at the pump and wait until someone pumps my gas. I can't even"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 29, 2020, 09:12:40 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 29, 2020, 06:53:01 AM
Quote from: jakeroot on March 29, 2020, 04:34:20 AM
Quote from: US 89 on March 29, 2020, 01:19:54 AM
Over/under on how many Oregonians will light themselves on fire during the pandemic?

There will be blood.

Because, you know...
Quote"I've lived in this state all my life and I REFUSE to pump my own gas. I had to do it once in California while visiting my brother and almost died doing it. This a service only qualified people should perform. I will literally park at the pump and wait until someone pumps my gas. I can't even"

Wouldn't death by "failure to pump gas"  appropriately qualify as proof of Darwinism?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on March 29, 2020, 09:41:34 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 29, 2020, 06:53:01 AM
Because, you know...
Quote"I've lived in this state all my life and I REFUSE to pump my own gas. I had to do it once in California while visiting my brother and almost died doing it. This a service only qualified people should perform. I will literally park at the pump and wait until someone pumps my gas. I can't even"
How screwed up can people possibly be if they think pumping their own gas requires special qualification? This isn't rocket science, people! It's easier than doing laundry for Christ's sake! Remember, I've even done it in New Jersey and got away with it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 09:52:29 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.

I've been using disposable rubber gloves at both the gas station and the grocery store (and yesterday at Home Depot)–I use them while pumping gas or in the store, and I throw them away after replacing the pump or returning the shopping cart and before getting into the car, this so as to avoid the risk of contaminating the car (so yesterday, for example, when I went to Home Depot and then to Wegmans, I used two pairs of gloves–not three pairs because I didn't need to put gas in the car).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 29, 2020, 10:08:35 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.

Can't you just wash your hands immediately after pumping, or use disinfectant wipes if you have some at hand? AFAIK, unless your fingers have open wounds, any virus isn't going to get from a gas pump into your bloodstream or respiratory tract, unless you do something with unwashed hands to put it there like touching your face. Ordinary skin contact isn't enough.

Both of my cars have a supply of disinfectant towelettes in a door pocket. That's been my standard practice, -even pre-Covid-19, for when an adequately supplied bathroom isn't available when I need it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 29, 2020, 10:12:29 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 09:52:29 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.

I've been using disposable rubber gloves at both the gas station and the grocery store (and yesterday at Home Depot)–I use them while pumping gas or in the store, and I throw them away after replacing the pump or returning the shopping cart and before getting into the car, this so as to avoid the risk of contaminating the car (so yesterday, for example, when I went to Home Depot and then to Wegmans, I used two pairs of gloves–not three pairs because I didn't need to put gas in the car).
I bet I can do gas fill with just a single glove. Only time I really need both hands is taking the card out of the wallet, and wallet is arguably clean anyway
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 29, 2020, 11:04:56 AM
Speaking of hand washing, my hands are cracking pretty badly at times with all this extra washing due to the virus scare.  I've been applying some of my Wife's lotion lately which kind of helps.  I suppose a lot of people probably now have similar cracks and exposures on their skin that they wouldn't normally. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 11:31:40 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 29, 2020, 11:04:56 AM
Speaking of hand washing, my hands are cracking pretty badly at times with all this extra washing due to the virus scare.  I've been applying some of my Wife's lotion lately which kind of helps.  I suppose a lot of people probably now have similar cracks and exposures on their skin that they wouldn't normally.

Same here, but I always wash my hands a lot and they seem to crack up badly a few times every winter, so I haven't noticed it more than usual.
It does help to wear gloves outside in cold weather, and dry your hands with non-paper products. Paper towels are so coarse that they dry your hands out and make them crack much worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 11:44:10 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 29, 2020, 10:12:29 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 09:52:29 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.

I've been using disposable rubber gloves at both the gas station and the grocery store (and yesterday at Home Depot)–I use them while pumping gas or in the store, and I throw them away after replacing the pump or returning the shopping cart and before getting into the car, this so as to avoid the risk of contaminating the car (so yesterday, for example, when I went to Home Depot and then to Wegmans, I used two pairs of gloves–not three pairs because I didn't need to put gas in the car).
I bet I can do gas fill with just a single glove. Only time I really need both hands is taking the card out of the wallet, and wallet is arguably clean anyway

I probably could, except I prefer to use the thing that holds the pump open so I don't have to stand there doing it myself, and I usually need two hands to set that thing (plus I usually set it to the slower speed if there are two options).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 29, 2020, 11:48:58 AM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 11:31:40 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 29, 2020, 11:04:56 AM
Speaking of hand washing, my hands are cracking pretty badly at times with all this extra washing due to the virus scare.  I've been applying some of my Wife's lotion lately which kind of helps.  I suppose a lot of people probably now have similar cracks and exposures on their skin that they wouldn't normally.

Same here, but I always wash my hands a lot and they seem to crack up badly a few times every winter, so I haven't noticed it more than usual.
It does help to wear gloves outside in cold weather, and dry your hands with non-paper products. Paper towels are so coarse that they dry your hands out and make them crack much worse.

When I was in grade school I had an issue with being afraid of germs (which didn't translate past the 3rd grade thankfully).  This honestly kind of reminds me of those times with all the constant hand washing everyone is having to do.  It was kind of nice just being at home for the entire day yesterday working in the garage and yard.  My hands got dirt and mud all over then but I didn't t have wash them for a solid six hours which I'm taking as a small win.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 11:51:50 AM
Quote from: vdeane on March 28, 2020, 11:40:45 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 28, 2020, 07:17:36 PM
Is it... dare I say... an advantage to share a state with the Big Apple at a time of crisis like this?
The more I hear reports trickling in of other states going into lockdown, the more I realize that our situation in Upstate NY just might be a blessing in disguise: the rest of the state rolls with what NYC does, of course, so we get the advantage of the spread being curtailed very early relative to how much the virus had spread, while still being hundreds of miles removed from the physical epicenter of the outbreak.

So I guess we're indebted to NYC for forcing the rest of the state to shut down when it did. There's no telling when a theoretical separate state containing the non-NYC areas of NY would have shut down, but I guarantee it would have been a week or so later, at minimum.
On the other hand, an upstate that was a separate state would not be subject to the whims to states that don't want anything to do with people from NYC right now.  Rhode Island in particular has gotten draconian with respect to people from NY.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490019-cuomo-threatens-to-sue-ri-over-new-coronavirus-policy-targeting-ny
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge

Yikes! That does seem a bit extreme. But at least it's only Rhode Island, and 99% of the NY plates there probably actually  are from the NYC area, because of the proximity, the people that have summer homes there, and so on. That is to say, if there's going to be a state that assumes NY=NYC, it makes sense for Rhode Island to do so more than any other state.
If PA, VT, or MA tried something similar, then we'd have a problem since they share borders with upstate and probably even have people commuting across the state line. I would think those states would give much more careful consideration to the implications of such a policy, and ultimately I don't think we'll see them doing what Rhode Island is doing.

Some states, like Texas, have put airport restrictions in place, but those are all specific to the NYC airports, so I don't have any issues with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 11:54:28 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 11:44:10 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 29, 2020, 10:12:29 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 09:52:29 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.

I've been using disposable rubber gloves at both the gas station and the grocery store (and yesterday at Home Depot)–I use them while pumping gas or in the store, and I throw them away after replacing the pump or returning the shopping cart and before getting into the car, this so as to avoid the risk of contaminating the car (so yesterday, for example, when I went to Home Depot and then to Wegmans, I used two pairs of gloves–not three pairs because I didn't need to put gas in the car).
I bet I can do gas fill with just a single glove. Only time I really need both hands is taking the card out of the wallet, and wallet is arguably clean anyway

I probably could, except I prefer to use the thing that holds the pump open so I don't have to stand there doing it myself, and I usually need two hands to set that thing (plus I usually set it to the slower speed if there are two options).

I should point out those are almost non-existent in NY. It's a rare treat to find a gas station that still has them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 29, 2020, 12:52:41 PM
I last purchased gas on March 5 and do not expect to buy more until late April or early May because we are simply not driving much anymore.

I haven't been bothering with hand sanitizer or nitrile gloves.  I am not aware that anyone has confirmed a case of infection through surface contact; the CDC mentions it only as a possibility.  I think it is much more important to maintain six-foot separation (to keep clear of airborne droplets) and to refrain from touching unwashed fingers to any mucous membranes.

I am actually much more likely to wear nitrile gloves when changing the oil in a car, because used motor oil is full of polyaromatic hydrocarbons and those cause cancer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on March 29, 2020, 01:23:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 11:54:28 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 11:44:10 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 29, 2020, 10:12:29 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 29, 2020, 09:52:29 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.

I've been using disposable rubber gloves at both the gas station and the grocery store (and yesterday at Home Depot)–I use them while pumping gas or in the store, and I throw them away after replacing the pump or returning the shopping cart and before getting into the car, this so as to avoid the risk of contaminating the car (so yesterday, for example, when I went to Home Depot and then to Wegmans, I used two pairs of gloves–not three pairs because I didn't need to put gas in the car).
I bet I can do gas fill with just a single glove. Only time I really need both hands is taking the card out of the wallet, and wallet is arguably clean anyway

I probably could, except I prefer to use the thing that holds the pump open so I don't have to stand there doing it myself, and I usually need two hands to set that thing (plus I usually set it to the slower speed if there are two options).

I should point out those are almost non-existent in NY. It's a rare treat to find a gas station that still has them.
When I leave NY and am able to lock the pump, I think I've returned to civilization.

The Northeast had some hysteria over a woman who started on fire while pumping gas due to static electricity and that's when the clips went the way of the dodo.  Seems like an overreaction, since every other state out there is doing just fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on March 29, 2020, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on March 29, 2020, 09:41:34 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 29, 2020, 06:53:01 AM
Because, you know...
Quote"I've lived in this state all my life and I REFUSE to pump my own gas. I had to do it once in California while visiting my brother and almost died doing it. This a service only qualified people should perform. I will literally park at the pump and wait until someone pumps my gas. I can't even"
How screwed up can people possibly be if they think pumping their own gas requires special qualification? This isn't rocket science, people! It's easier than doing laundry for Christ's sake! Remember, I've even done it in New Jersey and got away with it.

You should have been arrested.  What would possess you to do something like that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 29, 2020, 03:16:34 PM
Quote from: oscar on March 29, 2020, 10:08:35 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on March 29, 2020, 09:47:55 AM
Actually, in the absence of cleaning the pump handles and buttons/touchscreens between customers, full service gas pumps might not be a bad idea for a few weeks at least.  I personally take a plastic glove to pump with and dispose of after pumping, but I'm sure I'm in the minority.

Can't you just wash your hands immediately after pumping, or use disinfectant wipes if you have some at hand? AFAIK, unless your fingers have open wounds, any virus isn't going to get from a gas pump into your bloodstream or respiratory tract, unless you do something with unwashed hands to put it there like touching your face. Ordinary skin contact isn't enough.

Both of my cars have a supply of disinfectant towelettes in a door pocket. That's been my standard practice, -even pre-Covid-19, for when an adequately supplied bathroom isn't available when I need it.

I've been screamed at for "being too slow" in disinfecting my hands after using the pump and pay screen (pre-virus). I can't imagine what they would do to my car if I were to leave and use an inside bathroom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on March 29, 2020, 03:31:30 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 29, 2020, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on March 29, 2020, 09:41:34 AM
How screwed up can people possibly be if they think pumping their own gas requires special qualification? This isn't rocket science, people! It's easier than doing laundry for Christ's sake! Remember, I've even done it in New Jersey and got away with it.

You should have been arrested.  What would possess you to do something like that?
Basic impatience. The people working at the gas station were too busy BS-ing with one another and gambling or some other dumb thing. Plus, somebody told me that the cops were frequent customers of the station. Guess what; Nobody cared, including me. I even got a receipt for my purchase. Having to pump your own gas doesn't even rate with a parking ticket.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: fwydriver405 on March 29, 2020, 03:50:03 PM
This started popping up on the VMS signs in the entire State of Maine. The first message is on a photo below which is only being displayed on the Maine Turnpike.

(https://i.ibb.co/Rcf0tXf/most-beaches-300x291.jpg) (https://imgbb.com/)

The other message (and the only message MaineDOT signs are displaying) on the sign says:

PLEASE STAY HOME
HELP FIGHT
COVID-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 29, 2020, 04:12:57 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 29, 2020, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on March 29, 2020, 09:41:34 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 29, 2020, 06:53:01 AM
Because, you know...
Quote"I've lived in this state all my life and I REFUSE to pump my own gas. I had to do it once in California while visiting my brother and almost died doing it. This a service only qualified people should perform. I will literally park at the pump and wait until someone pumps my gas. I can't even"
How screwed up can people possibly be if they think pumping their own gas requires special qualification? This isn't rocket science, people! It's easier than doing laundry for Christ's sake! Remember, I've even done it in New Jersey and got away with it.

You should have been arrested.  What would possess you to do something like that?

Under the assumption this isn't sarcasm...

You do know what the penalty is for someone pumping gas in NJ is, right?

It's a penalty starting at $50 for a first offense,  most likely given to the station owner.

A state Labor and Development Dept inspector would need to see the violation occurring, not the police.

So far, in the many decades of full service gas in the state (1949 was when the law was enacted), a total of 0 violations have been recorded, as far as I know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 29, 2020, 04:27:24 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 29, 2020, 04:12:57 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on March 29, 2020, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on March 29, 2020, 09:41:34 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 29, 2020, 06:53:01 AM
Because, you know...
Quote"I've lived in this state all my life and I REFUSE to pump my own gas. I had to do it once in California while visiting my brother and almost died doing it. This a service only qualified people should perform. I will literally park at the pump and wait until someone pumps my gas. I can't even"
How screwed up can people possibly be if they think pumping their own gas requires special qualification? This isn't rocket science, people! It's easier than doing laundry for Christ's sake! Remember, I've even done it in New Jersey and got away with it.

You should have been arrested.  What would possess you to do something like that?

Under the assumption this isn't sarcasm...

You do know what the penalty is for someone pumping gas in NJ is, right?

It's a penalty starting at $50 for a first offense,  most likely given to the station owner.

A state Labor and Development Dept inspector would need to see the violation occurring, not the police.

So far, in the many decades of full service gas in the state (1949 was when the law was enacted), a total of 0 violations have been recorded, as far as I know.

Anyone know what the counterpart law in Oregon is?  I've filled up on own there plenty of times because I didn't want to wait for an attendant.  Usually when questioned I just said "oh I'm from out of state and didn't know."   That excuse was always highly plausible when I had Arizona plated and was somewhat close to a state line. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on March 29, 2020, 09:05:05 PM
I took a drive down to Arkansas yesterday... Route US 65 to and through Branson is just totally abandoned, as a result of all the shows being unable to operate. While I was in Arkansas, I visited the popular Hawksbill Crag. It appears this virus is not stopping tourists from going there. Staying six feet apart from other hikers is simply impossible, not only due to the amount of people, but the sheer cliffs on the side of the trail. I definitely took a risk there, though the county the Crag is in has no cases.. yet. Online classes start for me tomorrow.

I am curious as to how this virus will affect AADT stats.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 09:36:03 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 29, 2020, 09:05:05 PM
I am curious as to how this virus will affect AADT stats.

Without a doubt it's having a tremendous, unprecedented impact. Around here traffic on most roads has easily dropped by 50% or more. Afternoons are a bit closer to normal, but the morning "rush" is literally non-existent; maybe 20% of former traffic levels on many roads. Besides businesses being closed and people working from home, schools are also closed. Two huge traffic generators basically shuttered overnight. And then you factor in anything entertainment-related or large-event related also being cancelled. And restaurants. Basically we are testing the limits of finding out just how few of our trips really are essential.

I would say all state and local DOT's should postpone all AADT counting until this is over.
I saw a counter set up a few miles from home the other day and was kind of hoping they'd just throw out whatever data they collect and redo it next year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 29, 2020, 10:35:37 PM
There was an article on NJ.com, mostly copying a Oregon article about their temporary self service. Honestly it was the oddest article with some head-scratchers of reasons. Supposedly pump jockies can't maintain the 6 foot distance, yet I'm sure the same stations have convenience stores inside the building where cashiers will be within 6 feet of customers. Apparently they are allowing pumps to be left on if no one is working at all.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/oregon-lifts-prohibition-on-self-service-gas-due-to-coronavirus-nj-unlikely-to-do-it.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 29, 2020, 10:36:28 PM
For what it's worth, the number of new U.S. cases on Worldometer dropped today, and is less than what it was even 2 days ago.

Even using a 2-day rolling total, it's dropped for the first time since at least March 3, maybe earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on March 29, 2020, 10:47:05 PM
NYSDOT is plowing ahead with counts to capture the effect...hopefully with enough care on how to handle them in the future when this is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on March 29, 2020, 10:49:32 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 29, 2020, 10:36:28 PM
For what it's worth, the number of new U.S. cases on Worldometer dropped today, and is less than what it was even 2 days ago.

Even using a 2-day rolling total, it's dropped for the first time since at least March 3, maybe earlier.

But there may be people who have it but don't show symptoms yet. So hold off on that victory lap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 29, 2020, 10:50:40 PM
Quote from: US71 on March 29, 2020, 10:49:32 PM
But there may be people who have it but don't show symptoms yet. So hold off on that victory lap.

I know there have been all along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 29, 2020, 11:16:38 PM
If I'm getting gas at a station where the gas pumps don't have hold-open latches, I slide the gas cap under the nozzle handle and it works perfectly. (Although the work vehicle I sometimes drive, a Jeep, doesn't even have a gas cap now, just a flap on the filler tube behind the door flap.)

I figure enough gas gets on the pump handle to kill any virii anyway, so I haven't been too worried about it, although I've been using hand sanitizer immediately after pumping gas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on March 30, 2020, 06:44:02 AM
Quote from: US71 on March 29, 2020, 10:49:32 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 29, 2020, 10:36:28 PM
For what it's worth, the number of new U.S. cases on Worldometer dropped today, and is less than what it was even 2 days ago.

Even using a 2-day rolling total, it's dropped for the first time since at least March 3, maybe earlier.

But there may be people who have it but don't show symptoms yet. So hold off on that victory lap.

Around 80% of people never even show symptoms anyway, and it's debatable as to how contagious they actually are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 30, 2020, 07:19:58 AM
Quote from: Brandon on March 30, 2020, 06:44:02 AM
Quote from: US71 on March 29, 2020, 10:49:32 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 29, 2020, 10:36:28 PM
For what it's worth, the number of new U.S. cases on Worldometer dropped today, and is less than what it was even 2 days ago.

Even using a 2-day rolling total, it's dropped for the first time since at least March 3, maybe earlier.

But there may be people who have it but don't show symptoms yet. So hold off on that victory lap.

Around 80% of people never even show symptoms anyway, and it's debatable as to how contagious they actually are.

Very contagious?  No.

Somewhat contagious?  Probably.

While most of the early 'victims' who got Covid-19 could have their source traced, we are now over 100k with the virus in the US.  Much of that has some via contact with others, many of whom had no or light symptoms, or left behind something (ie: on a door handle) that the next person would've picked up.  The more prone you are to catching something from someone else, the more likely you can get something from incidental contact.

For what it's worth, these people complaining about kids handing out playing basketball and such most likely also have gone out to a supermarket or convenience store to pick up supplies.  They're just as guilty as being out in a group setting as the kids playing a game. 

When my wife and I take walks, I get this feeling that people are looking at us as if we're not practicing social distancing, even though in the privacy of our home we're sitting and eating next to each other, and sleeping in the same bed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 30, 2020, 08:20:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 30, 2020, 07:19:58 AM
For what it's worth, these people complaining about kids handing out playing basketball and such most likely also have gone out to a supermarket or convenience store to pick up supplies.  They're just as guilty as being out in a group setting as the kids playing a game. 

First of all, getting groceries is a necessary activity and is going to require some risk of exposure.  Basketball is not a required activity.

Secondly, you can maneuver your way through a grocery store without close contact.  Basketball requires being in close contact. 

My wife is a respiratory therapist and is disconnecting ventilators from (dead) patients every night now.  If people saw what she saw, they would be staying 100% inside their homes except for once or twice per week grocery trips.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on March 30, 2020, 08:31:13 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 29, 2020, 10:36:28 PM
For what it's worth, the number of new U.S. cases on Worldometer dropped today, and is less than what it was even 2 days ago.

Even using a 2-day rolling total, it's dropped for the first time since at least March 3, maybe earlier.
Gee, that's funny. I've heard the opposite. On either Thursday or Friday, I heard the number of cases broke the 100,000 mark. Yesterday, I heard it broke 200,000.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on March 30, 2020, 08:33:49 AM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on March 30, 2020, 08:31:13 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 29, 2020, 10:36:28 PM
For what it's worth, the number of new U.S. cases on Worldometer dropped today, and is less than what it was even 2 days ago.

Even using a 2-day rolling total, it's dropped for the first time since at least March 3, maybe earlier.
Gee, that's funny. I've heard the opposite. On either Thursday or Friday, I heard the number of cases broke the 100,000 mark. Yesterday, I heard it broke 200,000.

It hasn't hit 200,000 yet. You're probably thinking of 1,000 vs. 2,000 deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Henry on March 30, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
As it is now, I'm working from home thanks to the stay-at-home order, so I haven't had too much time to be on this forum, but I'll find some breaks here and there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 30, 2020, 10:37:03 AM
Quote from: Rothman on March 29, 2020, 10:47:05 PM
NYSDOT is plowing ahead with counts to capture the effect...hopefully with enough care on how to handle them in the future when this is over.

I know March is usually a big month for traffic counts - I had seen quite a few around here at the beginning of the month.
I'm fine with them doing counts, as long as they're used only as a historical data point and not to justify long-term decisions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 30, 2020, 12:35:16 PM
Our governor is planning to make a "major announcement" during his press briefing today. Safe bet that VA is fixing to join the list of stay-at-home states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on March 30, 2020, 12:35:48 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 30, 2020, 08:20:21 AMSecondly, you can maneuver your way through a grocery store without close contact.  Basketball requires being in close contact.

In my weekly trips to the grocery store since this crisis arrived in Kansas, I've observed a wide spread in people's understanding of what social distancing means.  It was not until last Saturday's trip that I saw my first person wearing a mask, and there is still no shortage of people who don't realize that if the aisle is only six feet wide and they are standing still while trying to decide whether to put an item in the cart, they are blocking the way for everyone else.

Quote from: route56 on March 28, 2020, 06:55:16 PMUPDATE!: A state-wide stay-at-home order goes into effect for Kansas on Monday

My home county (Jefferson) went into 'lockdown' this morning [3/28/20], along with Osage County.

A concern about the governor's order has surfaced (https://www-1.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article241604141.html) in the last day or two:  it exempts churches and gun shops.  It also suspends all lockdown orders at the county level and prohibits counties from making orders that are less or more restrictive while it is in effect.  Exempt entities are still expected to practice social distancing, but the limit of 10 people gathering does not apply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 30, 2020, 12:50:53 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 30, 2020, 12:35:48 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on March 30, 2020, 08:20:21 AMSecondly, you can maneuver your way through a grocery store without close contact.  Basketball requires being in close contact.

In my weekly trips to the grocery store since this crisis arrived in Kansas, I've observed a wide spread in people's understanding of what social distancing means.  It was not until last Saturday's trip that I saw my first person wearing a mask, and there is still no shortage of people who don't realize that if the aisle is only six feet wide and they are standing still while trying to decide whether to put an item in the cart, they are blocking the way for everyone else.


Turn your back to them, hold your breath and pass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on March 30, 2020, 01:02:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 30, 2020, 12:35:48 PM


A concern about the governor's order has surfaced (https://www-1.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article241604141.html) in the last day or two:  it exempts churches and gun shops.  It also suspends all lockdown orders at the county level and prohibits counties from making orders that are less or more restrictive while it is in effect.  Exempt entities are still expected to practice social distancing, but the limit of 10 people gathering does not apply.

Because of separation of church and state, orders cannot apply to churches.  However it would be the height of irresponsibility for a church flaunt that status.

Perhaps gun shops are exempt because of 2nd Amendment issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on March 30, 2020, 01:06:20 PM
Quote from: GaryV on March 30, 2020, 01:02:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 30, 2020, 12:35:48 PM


A concern about the governor's order has surfaced (https://www-1.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article241604141.html) in the last day or two:  it exempts churches and gun shops.  It also suspends all lockdown orders at the county level and prohibits counties from making orders that are less or more restrictive while it is in effect.  Exempt entities are still expected to practice social distancing, but the limit of 10 people gathering does not apply.

Because of separation of church and state, orders cannot apply to churches.  However it would be the height of irresponsibility for a church flaunt that status.

Perhaps gun shops are exempt because of 2nd Amendment issues.
Because of separation of church and state, orders cannot apply to churches differently from other businesses – making an exception to keep them open is not allowed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on March 30, 2020, 02:24:10 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 30, 2020, 01:06:20 PM
Quote from: GaryV on March 30, 2020, 01:02:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 30, 2020, 12:35:48 PM


A concern about the governor's order has surfaced (https://www-1.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article241604141.html) in the last day or two:  it exempts churches and gun shops.  It also suspends all lockdown orders at the county level and prohibits counties from making orders that are less or more restrictive while it is in effect.  Exempt entities are still expected to practice social distancing, but the limit of 10 people gathering does not apply.

Because of separation of church and state, orders cannot apply to churches.  However it would be the height of irresponsibility for a church flaunt that status.

Perhaps gun shops are exempt because of 2nd Amendment issues.
Because of separation of church and state, orders cannot apply to churches differently from other businesses – making an exception to keep them open is not allowed.
Because the government cannot restrict the practice of religion, religious services must be exempt.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 30, 2020, 02:42:18 PM
The Constitution does not require "separation of church and state." Wish I had $1 for every time I've read or heard that it does. What the Constitution (First Amendment) does stipulate is that the government cannot establish an official religion, or prohibit anyone from worshipping freely as they see fit. It also does not permit the government to restrict the ability of the people to peaceably assemble.

I'm curious as to whether or not we will see any court challenges to some of these orders. In Kentucky, the very first thing the governor did was to encourage churches not to hold services. Then, he prohibited churches from holding services. Now, gatherings of more than 10 people are prohibited by executive order. I saw a story over the weekend that someone in Maryland had hosted a party with around 60 people in attendance, in defiance of the governor's order prohibiting gatherings of more than 10, and had been arrested or cited for it. I wonder if his lawyer will cite the assembly clause of the First Amendment as a defense.

Saw this morning that DiBlasio has stated that churches/synagogues in NYC that continue to hold services in defiance of his order might be permanently shut down. Now, that will almost definitely draw a court challenge if it happens.

As for gun shops being excluded, I don't think that's a Second Amendment issue. Some states actually address the closure of gun shops via executive order in their statutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 30, 2020, 02:49:36 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 30, 2020, 12:35:16 PM
Our governor is planning to make a "major announcement" during his press briefing today. Safe bet that VA is fixing to join the list of stay-at-home states.

Aaaaaand here's the stay-at-home order.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/march/headline-855702-en.html (https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/march/headline-855702-en.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on March 30, 2020, 02:51:02 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 30, 2020, 02:42:18 PM
As for gun shops being excluded, I don't think that's a Second Amendment issue. Some states actually address the closure of gun shops via executive order in their statutes.

The gun shops staying open as well was per Dept. of Homeland Security guidelines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 30, 2020, 02:51:30 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 30, 2020, 02:49:36 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 30, 2020, 12:35:16 PM
Our governor is planning to make a "major announcement" during his press briefing today. Safe bet that VA is fixing to join the list of stay-at-home states.

Aaaaaand here's the stay-at-home order.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/march/headline-855702-en.html (https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/march/headline-855702-en.html)
Didn't see that one coming...  :meh:

And until June 10, wow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 30, 2020, 03:07:13 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 30, 2020, 02:42:18 PM
The Constitution does not require "separation of church and state." Wish I had $1 for every time I've read or heard that it does. What the Constitution (First Amendment) does stipulate is that the government cannot establish an official religion, or prohibit anyone from worshipping freely as they see fit.

That's pretty much the same thing.

That said, limits on private gatherings must have only a limited time and scope. Government isn't allowed to arbitrarily prohibit all private gatherings, especially when these gatherings pose no risk to the community.

QuoteI saw a story over the weekend that someone in Maryland had hosted a party with around 60 people in attendance, in defiance of the governor's order prohibiting gatherings of more than 10, and had been arrested or cited for it. I wonder if his lawyer will cite the assembly clause of the First Amendment as a defense.

If it was a party of 60, a court challenge probably wouldn't work. The numbers and timeframes of any public policy are supposed to have a basis that is not arbitrary. If the order said no gatherings of more than 3, and he had a private gathering of 10, I think he'd have a case. If a constitutional right can be completely gutted by executive action, it's not worth the paper it's printed on.

We can be creative about avoiding these orders, as long as we're safe in the process. Take the upcoming Cincinnati roadmeet, for example. Instead of saying it's one event with 11 people, I can say it's 11 separate events each with one person. If we use an outdoor public space, and everyone is at least 6 feet apart, it's safe. Six feet isn't a huge distance. When the pirates drank lime juice to prevent scurvy, people thought that was unusual, but it worked. If we have 11 events spaced 6 feet apart to prevent a virus that should have been stamped out months ago, people will say, "Wow, people back in 2020 sure were weird." But it works. Of course, none of that should matter when it's almost June, but at the glacial pace at fighting this virus, who knows?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 30, 2020, 03:08:40 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 30, 2020, 02:51:30 PM
And until June 10, wow.

Nobody in their right mind is going to put up with it for that long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 30, 2020, 05:46:05 PM
Quote from: 1 on March 30, 2020, 01:06:20 PM
Quote from: GaryV on March 30, 2020, 01:02:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 30, 2020, 12:35:48 PM

A concern about the governor's order has surfaced (https://www-1.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article241604141.html) in the last day or two:  it exempts churches and gun shops.  It also suspends all lockdown orders at the county level and prohibits counties from making orders that are less or more restrictive while it is in effect.  Exempt entities are still expected to practice social distancing, but the limit of 10 people gathering does not apply.

Because of separation of church and state, orders cannot apply to churches.  However it would be the height of irresponsibility for a church flaunt that status.

Perhaps gun shops are exempt because of 2nd Amendment issues.
Because of separation of church and state, orders cannot apply to churches differently from other businesses – making an exception to keep them open is not allowed.

The Constitution itself treats religious institutions differently than their non-religious counterparts. For example, it forbids prohibitions on the free exercise of religion, but not prohibitions of non-religious exercises such as roadgeekery. This has come up most recently in cases creating a "ministerial exception" limiting the application of anti-discrimination laws to religious institutions' choices of who they employ to teach their faiths.

That doesn't necessarily mean churches get a free pass on "social distancing" restrictions, but it's not forbidden for state governments to cut them some slack. Just as a matter of preserving their memberships, churches have strong incentives to limit in-person worship and take it online as much as possible, even if not required by the government.

Quote from: bandit957 on March 30, 2020, 03:07:13 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 30, 2020, 02:42:18 PM
The Constitution does not require "separation of church and state." Wish I had $1 for every time I've read or heard that it does. What the Constitution (First Amendment) does stipulate is that the government cannot establish an official religion, or prohibit anyone from worshipping freely as they see fit.

That's pretty much the same thing.

Close, but not quite. One difference is that it gives churches more protection from the government, than vice versa -- a difference fully appreciated by Rev. Martin Luther King, Rev. Al Sharpton, and Rev. Jerry Falwell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on March 30, 2020, 05:56:27 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 09:36:03 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 29, 2020, 09:05:05 PM
I am curious as to how this virus will affect AADT stats.

Without a doubt it's having a tremendous, unprecedented impact. Around here traffic on most roads has easily dropped by 50% or more. Afternoons are a bit closer to normal, but the morning "rush" is literally non-existent; maybe 20% of former traffic levels on many roads. Besides businesses being closed and people working from home, schools are also closed. Two huge traffic generators basically shuttered overnight. And then you factor in anything entertainment-related or large-event related also being cancelled. And restaurants. Basically we are testing the limits of finding out just how few of our trips really are essential.

I would say all state and local DOT's should postpone all AADT counting until this is over.
I saw a counter set up a few miles from home the other day and was kind of hoping they'd just throw out whatever data they collect and redo it next year.

Same here in Charleston. Most roads traffic volume are down 40-50% at a minimum. Those are the main roads (US 17, I-26 and I-526). The streets in downtown Charleston are probably down 60-70%. All of the non-essential businesses are shut in the city of Charleston, and like in Rochester and most places around the country, almost nobody is working at a workplace except for essential people, plus schools are closed.

College of Charleston only holding classes virtually takes out 10,000+ students alone.

The SCDOT uses live traffic counts on their site. You can see them linked below.

As an example, our main thoroughfare, I-26 between I-526 and Ashley Phosphate was peaking at over 170,000, sometimes near 180,000 cars a day on Fridays before the pandemic. Last Friday it was at 104,000, and Sundays are even starker since churches aren't open. 26 was near 130K a day on the first Sunday of March. Yesterday, about 49,000. Less than 15,000 of that headed toward the city (EB).

https://www.scdot.org/travel/travel-trafficdata.aspx
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on March 30, 2020, 06:05:28 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on March 30, 2020, 05:56:27 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 09:36:03 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 29, 2020, 09:05:05 PM
I am curious as to how this virus will affect AADT stats.

Without a doubt it's having a tremendous, unprecedented impact. Around here traffic on most roads has easily dropped by 50% or more. Afternoons are a bit closer to normal, but the morning "rush" is literally non-existent; maybe 20% of former traffic levels on many roads. Besides businesses being closed and people working from home, schools are also closed. Two huge traffic generators basically shuttered overnight. And then you factor in anything entertainment-related or large-event related also being cancelled. And restaurants. Basically we are testing the limits of finding out just how few of our trips really are essential.

I would say all state and local DOT's should postpone all AADT counting until this is over.
I saw a counter set up a few miles from home the other day and was kind of hoping they'd just throw out whatever data they collect and redo it next year.

Same here in Charleston. Most roads traffic volume are down 40-50% at a minimum. Those are the main roads (US 17, I-26 and I-526). The streets in downtown Charleston are probably down 60-70%. All of the non-essential businesses are shut in the city of Charleston, and like in Rochester and most places around the country, almost nobody is working at a workplace except for essential people, plus schools are closed.

College of Charleston only holding classes virtually takes out 10,000+ students alone.

The SCDOT uses live traffic counts on their site. You can see them linked below.

As an example, our main thoroughfare, I-26 between I-526 and Ashley Phosphate was peaking at over 170,000, sometimes near 180,000 cars a day on Fridays before the pandemic. Last Friday it was at 104,000, and Sundays are even starker since churches aren’t open. 26 was near 130K a day on the first Sunday of March. Yesterday, about 49,000. Less than 15,000 of that headed toward the city (EB).

https://www.scdot.org/travel/travel-trafficdata.aspx

Coos Bay-North Bend OR morning traffic on a weekday looks like a typical Sunday. 

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on March 30, 2020, 06:40:37 PM
https://twitter.com/deedeverell/status/1244728377908637698?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 30, 2020, 07:28:32 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 30, 2020, 06:40:37 PM
https://twitter.com/deedeverell/status/1244728377908637698?s=21

They're just clinging to the gas attendant thing at the state level now...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on March 30, 2020, 08:28:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 30, 2020, 07:28:32 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 30, 2020, 06:40:37 PM
https://twitter.com/deedeverell/status/1244728377908637698?s=21

They're just clinging to the gas attendant thing at the state level now...
Jobs - way more important than health!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 30, 2020, 08:48:07 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on March 30, 2020, 08:28:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 30, 2020, 07:28:32 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on March 30, 2020, 06:40:37 PM
https://twitter.com/deedeverell/status/1244728377908637698?s=21

They're just clinging to the gas attendant thing at the state level now...
Jobs - way more important than health!

Entry level jobs which are being artificially kept alive.  I've never understood why there is such a mentality about creating entry level jobs when there ought to be a push to get more at the kid-career level and have more of a public push for career development. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on March 30, 2020, 11:52:44 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on March 30, 2020, 05:56:27 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 09:36:03 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 29, 2020, 09:05:05 PM
I am curious as to how this virus will affect AADT stats.

Without a doubt it's having a tremendous, unprecedented impact. Around here traffic on most roads has easily dropped by 50% or more. Afternoons are a bit closer to normal, but the morning "rush" is literally non-existent; maybe 20% of former traffic levels on many roads. Besides businesses being closed and people working from home, schools are also closed. Two huge traffic generators basically shuttered overnight. And then you factor in anything entertainment-related or large-event related also being cancelled. And restaurants. Basically we are testing the limits of finding out just how few of our trips really are essential.

I would say all state and local DOT's should postpone all AADT counting until this is over.
I saw a counter set up a few miles from home the other day and was kind of hoping they'd just throw out whatever data they collect and redo it next year.

Same here in Charleston. Most roads traffic volume are down 40-50% at a minimum. Those are the main roads (US 17, I-26 and I-526). The streets in downtown Charleston are probably down 60-70%. All of the non-essential businesses are shut in the city of Charleston, and like in Rochester and most places around the country, almost nobody is working at a workplace except for essential people, plus schools are closed.

College of Charleston only holding classes virtually takes out 10,000+ students alone.

[snippage]

Wouldn't that also drop the city's official 2020 population by about that much, seeing as Census Day is 01-April?

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on March 31, 2020, 08:35:05 AM
There is an article on people.com that talks about a choir in Washington state that held practice on March 6, where no one had any symptoms and where there were no reported cases...and out of 60 members, 45 came down with the virus and 2 died. 

What people aren't appreciating is that the virus is spread through breath.  Coughing and sneezing is the worst because it spreads more of the virus and farther from your face...and causes droplets to fall onto surfaces where they can last 4-96 hours depending on the surface...and that is why washing your hands and not touching your face is so important.

But what is a little more understated is this concept of spreading it while asymptomatic.  And that is by breathing.  And normal breathing doesn't spread enough of the virus and not far enough to cause any issues.  But put 10 infected people in a crowded room sitting at a table who are talking and laughing (or in the choirs' case, singing) for an hour...and they may be enough passing droplets around to pass it.  And that I think is being under-told in the media.

Taking road trips by yourself or someone you know isn't infected?  Not a risk as long as you're careful after you touch surfaces. But much more than that and I think you up the risk of getting it, and worse, spreading it while asymptomatic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 31, 2020, 09:34:55 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on March 30, 2020, 11:52:44 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on March 30, 2020, 05:56:27 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 29, 2020, 09:36:03 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on March 29, 2020, 09:05:05 PM
I am curious as to how this virus will affect AADT stats.

Without a doubt it's having a tremendous, unprecedented impact. Around here traffic on most roads has easily dropped by 50% or more. Afternoons are a bit closer to normal, but the morning "rush" is literally non-existent; maybe 20% of former traffic levels on many roads. Besides businesses being closed and people working from home, schools are also closed. Two huge traffic generators basically shuttered overnight. And then you factor in anything entertainment-related or large-event related also being cancelled. And restaurants. Basically we are testing the limits of finding out just how few of our trips really are essential.

I would say all state and local DOT's should postpone all AADT counting until this is over.
I saw a counter set up a few miles from home the other day and was kind of hoping they'd just throw out whatever data they collect and redo it next year.

Same here in Charleston. Most roads traffic volume are down 40-50% at a minimum. Those are the main roads (US 17, I-26 and I-526). The streets in downtown Charleston are probably down 60-70%. All of the non-essential businesses are shut in the city of Charleston, and like in Rochester and most places around the country, almost nobody is working at a workplace except for essential people, plus schools are closed.

College of Charleston only holding classes virtually takes out 10,000+ students alone.

[snippage]

Wouldn't that also drop the city's official 2020 population by about that much, seeing as Census Day is 01-April?

Mike

Yes, even though this pandemic is (hopefully) only going to last a couple months, the effects will be reflected for years to come.  College students are usually counted in their dorms/apartments as just about every college is in session on April 1, but for the 2020 Census, the dorms are pretty much closed and many of the students in off campus housing have also returned home.  College towns like East Lansing and West Lafayette will show substantial population losses.

An extreme example would be Notre Dame.  While not an incorporated city or town, it has its own ZIP Code and is a Census-designated place that has its own population totals.  In 2010, the population was 5973.  For 2020, I'm guessing it will be only a couple hundred (there are priests who live on campus year-round). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 09:40:01 AM
Is  it just me, or census push went down?
I suspect, it will be like olympics - rinse and repeat with 1 year delay. They did mail and internet counts by now, those are not that difficult to repeat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 31, 2020, 09:48:45 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 09:40:01 AM
Is  it just me, or census push went down?
I suspect, it will be like olympics - rinse and repeat with 1 year delay. They did mail and internet counts by now, those are not that difficult to repeat.

So, if there is a delay in completing the 2020 Census, reapportionment and redistricting can't be completed in time for the 2022 elections.  As of right now all field operations are suspended through at least April 15, and some of the processing operations can't be done from home and are on hold.  There's no decision yet to officially push the end date, but we're reaching a point where I don't see it being possible to crash operations enough to get everything done on time.

However, the reference day for the Census is going to remain April 1.  Regardless of whether someone's response gets delayed one month or several months, the response will still be based on residency as of April 1. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tdindy88 on March 31, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
They'll just do the census later in the year. I think the door-to-door visitations are being pushed back to May already. As for the colleges, you could do the count in the fall when the students are presumably back in their dorms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 31, 2020, 09:54:43 AM
Quote from: tdindy88 on March 31, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
They'll just do the census later in the year. I think the door-to-door visitations are being pushed back to May already. As for the colleges, you could do the count in the fall when the students are presumably back in their dorms.

Data collection can be pushed back, but the reference date has to remain April 1.  Every residence has to have the same reference date or else some people get counted twice and others not at all.  Students are going to get counted where they are living on April 1 regardless of when that count actually happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on March 31, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
The Census is not going to be moved, end of discussion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 10:10:03 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 31, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
The Census is not going to be moved, end of discussion.
Rest in peace, poor census takers...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Stephane Dumas on March 31, 2020, 10:12:03 AM
In some places, gas is now under 1.00$ per gallon but as that article mentionned, motorists had nowhere to go due to the Coronavirus.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/gas-cheap-motorists-69883051

QuoteDALLAS -- U.S. gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels in four years, and they are almost sure to go lower as oil prices plunge.

Price-tracking services put the national average Monday around $2 a gallon. Some stations were spotted charging under a dollar.

But don't expect a stampede to the pumps. Demand is weak because so many Americans are under shelter-in-place rules and businesses have been shuttered because of the coronavirus outbreak.

"For most Americans who are home practicing social distancing and not driving to work or taking their children to school, you are only filling up maybe once a week, maybe every couple of weeks,"  said Jeanette Casselano, a spokeswoman for the AAA auto club. "You are not reaping the benefits."

Prices have plenty of room to keep falling – maybe below $1.50, according to analysts.

Patrick DeHaan, an analyst for price tracker GasBuddy, said that eventually retail prices will reflect the even faster decline in wholesale prices

"Retailers are taking their time lowering prices because they have a lot of uncertainty around the corner,"  DeHaan said, adding that the practice boosts service station profit margins. "We've never seen gasoline retailers doing as well as they are now."

Investors expect weak demand to continuing pushing gasoline prices lower. Contracts in New York for gasoline futures plunged to well under $1 a gallon on Monday.

Oil accounts for about half the price of gasoline, and the drop at the pump is shadowing the steep slide in crude, which briefly on Monday hit the lowest levels since 2002. Benchmark prices for U.S. and international crude have both fallen by more than half in the past five weeks, as more Americans and Europeans have come under lockdown, cutting into demand for oil, and Saudi Arabia and Russia engaged in a price war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 31, 2020, 10:14:00 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 10:10:03 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 31, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
The Census is not going to be moved, end of discussion.
Rest in peace, poor census takers...
Nobody is out in the field until at least April 15, and I suspect that date will get pushed farther.  The number of Census employees actually working in offices and not from home right now is minimal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on March 31, 2020, 11:25:41 AM
I applied for a part-time Census job but never heard anything back from them other than the standard form e-mails. Guess I was overqualified...

A friend of mine (a forum participant) posited that there may be some population shifts reflected this year, because college kids who are usually counted in their college towns will instead be counted where they are at home with their parents. I don't know if this will result in any shifts of House seats between states, but it may shift House district lines (and state legislative districts) within states. For instance, how many of the approximately 23,000 UK students will be counted somewhere outside Lexington this year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on March 31, 2020, 11:40:26 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 31, 2020, 11:25:41 AM
I applied for a part-time Census job but never heard anything back from them other than the standard form e-mails. Guess I was overqualified...

A friend of mine (a forum participant) posited that there may be some population shifts reflected this year, because college kids who are usually counted in their college towns will instead be counted where they are at home with their parents. I don't know if this will result in any shifts of House seats between states, but it may shift House district lines (and state legislative districts) within states. For instance, how many of the approximately 23,000 UK students will be counted somewhere outside Lexington this year?

I doubt there are enough people who attend college out of state to affect apportionment, but it will almost certainly affect redistricting within states. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tdindy88 on March 31, 2020, 12:04:19 PM
I did a little looking around on this issue. It appears that students living in dorms on a college campus should get counted as living there regardless of whether or not they are there now. Universities should send the census a list of all those residing in their dorms on campus. As I was in college during the 2010 Census this makes sense. While in college I never had to fill out any census forms, I was automatically counted as having lived in the city of the university. Even now it is likely they will still be counted as being in those college towns as they are "supposed" to be there on April 1. Now those who live off-campus, that might be another thing. I don't know where that leaves the populations of college towns, it would be interested to see how they are finally counted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 31, 2020, 12:22:31 PM
The whole college town thing is interesting and complicated in ways that I didn't think about when I mentioned COVID-19 upthread as a a potential positive development for the the census.

And indeed, I still think that the benefit having everyone in their homes, in lockdown, sheltering in place, and so forth (and not traveling internationally or to other states), is a good thing for the census and likely outweighs the challenges created by cases like college students and snow birds and whoever else might be in limbo or somewhere else than they normally would be. You would certainly hope that less travel and more people being home would result in more people getting the form, a higher response rate and less follow up on the ground being needed. And just way less confusion in general.
Who knows how it will ultimately end up, but I just can't shake this feeling of elation that coronavirus is a net positive and even perfectly timed development for the 2020 census.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 12:22:37 PM
NKU is mostly a commuter campus. It does have some dorms though. It also had apartments for students maintained by the university, but the university did such a poor job of maintaining them that they basically fell apart, and they had to be permanently closed due to structural decay a few months ago.

I attended NKU in the '90s, and frankly, I think it's a sorry excuse for a university. But that matter is for another board entirely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:29:45 PM
Men charged with violating North Carolina's stay-at-home order while protesting outside abortion clinic (https://www.pilotonline.com/news/vp-nw-coronavirus-arrests-protest-20200331-3qfbjrmzknhz5jh47yuvqj4pge-story.html?fbclid=IwAR087VFCCnl6c7uMes_w6BgI_Q5sIWyfQR0WCZjUEX-aApk38fMsag-V48I)
QuoteSeven people have been charged with violating stay-at-home orders while protesting Monday outside an abortion clinic in Greensboro, authorities said.

Greensboro police said the seven demonstrators gathered outside A Woman's Choice of Greensboro were asked to leave because they were violating stay-at-home orders prompted by the new coronavirus. Police said the protesters refused.

Jason Oesterreich, Justin Reeder, Isaiah Burner, Andre Gonzalez, Richard Whittier, Leroy Stokes Jr., and John Mcatee were charged with violating Guilford County's stay-at-home order and resisting a public officer.

It wasn't the first time police had broken up a protest outside the clinic during the restrictions. Oesterreich, Reeder, Burner, and Carl Ubinas were charged with similar offenses after a protesting outside the clinic on Saturday, authorities said.

Police said the men were part of a group that contacted police before gathering outside the clinic on Saturday. Police told the leader of the group that their gathering would be considered nonessential and protesters would be given a citation or be arrested.

Authorities have said the order was imposed to stop the spread of the global pandemic.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper set new restrictions on business operations and prohibitions of gatherings of more than 10 people on Friday. Police said they will try to get violators to voluntarily comply with disperse requests but violators could ultimately be charged with a class 2 misdemeanor.

It's unclear if any of the men charged have attorneys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 12:33:47 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:29:45 PM
Men charged with violating North Carolina's stay-at-home order while protesting outside abortion clinic (https://www.pilotonline.com/news/vp-nw-coronavirus-arrests-protest-20200331-3qfbjrmzknhz5jh47yuvqj4pge-story.html?fbclid=IwAR087VFCCnl6c7uMes_w6BgI_Q5sIWyfQR0WCZjUEX-aApk38fMsag-V48I)
QuoteSeven people have been charged with violating stay-at-home orders while protesting Monday outside an abortion clinic in Greensboro, authorities said.

Greensboro police said the seven demonstrators gathered outside A Woman's Choice of Greensboro were asked to leave because they were violating stay-at-home orders prompted by the new coronavirus. Police said the protesters refused.

Jason Oesterreich, Justin Reeder, Isaiah Burner, Andre Gonzalez, Richard Whittier, Leroy Stokes Jr., and John Mcatee were charged with violating Guilford County's stay-at-home order and resisting a public officer.

It wasn't the first time police had broken up a protest outside the clinic during the restrictions. Oesterreich, Reeder, Burner, and Carl Ubinas were charged with similar offenses after a protesting outside the clinic on Saturday, authorities said.

Police said the men were part of a group that contacted police before gathering outside the clinic on Saturday. Police told the leader of the group that their gathering would be considered nonessential and protesters would be given a citation or be arrested.

Authorities have said the order was imposed to stop the spread of the global pandemic.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper set new restrictions on business operations and prohibitions of gatherings of more than 10 people on Friday. Police said they will try to get violators to voluntarily comply with disperse requests but violators could ultimately be charged with a class 2 misdemeanor.

It's unclear if any of the men charged have attorneys.

Well, the order does apply only to gatherings of more than 10 - not 7.

But if the protesters were actually blocking access to the clinic, that would be illegal - pandemic or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Anyone have the actual North Carolina statute that was actually applied to the circumstance above?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:56:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Anyone have the actual North Carolina statute that was actually applied to the circumstance above?
I don't, but I would love to see it.

While I agree people need to stay at home, social distance, etc., I can't see how this can actually be a chargeable offense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:58:31 PM
https://twitter.com/virginianpilot/status/1244991006208122881
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:59:42 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:56:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Anyone have the actual North Carolina statute that was actually applied to the circumstance above?
I don't, but I would love to see it.

While I agree people need to stay at home, social distance, etc., I can't see how this can actually be a chargeable offense.

I'm betting they were charged under some sort of "disturbing the peace"  type of law.  Usually those are vague enough to fall open to interpretation for any kind of civil unrest. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 01:23:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 31, 2020, 12:22:31 PM
The whole college town thing is interesting and complicated in ways that I didn't think about when I mentioned COVID-19 upthread as a a potential positive development for the the census.

And indeed, I still think that the benefit having everyone in their homes, in lockdown, sheltering in place, and so forth (and not traveling internationally or to other states), is a good thing for the census and likely outweighs the challenges created by cases like college students and snow birds and whoever else might be in limbo or somewhere else than they normally would be. You would certainly hope that less travel and more people being home would result in more people getting the form, a higher response rate and less follow up on the ground being needed. And just way less confusion in general.
Who knows how it will ultimately end up, but I just can't shake this feeling of elation that coronavirus is a net positive and even perfectly timed development for the 2020 census.
Your mention of snowbirds makes me wonder if Florida is going to get a bit more representation in the House and Electoral College than it otherwise would have.

In any case, the effect with respect to college towns means that the results of the 2020 Census are going to be garbage.  There is a lot of statistical work that is done based off Census data - basically all urban and government planning depends on it - beyond redistricting.  Since the 2020 Census is going to be very, very inaccurate with respect to typical conditions, the results should not be used any more than a state should make long-range plans based off of traffic counts completed right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 01:28:47 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:56:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Anyone have the actual North Carolina statute that was actually applied to the circumstance above?
I don't, but I would love to see it.

While I agree people need to stay at home, social distance, etc., I can't see how this can actually be a chargeable offense.

Here ya go. The quoted applies to the governor's executive order.

https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/HTML/BySection/Chapter_166A/GS_166A-19.30.html (https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/HTML/BySection/Chapter_166A/GS_166A-19.30.html)

Quote(d)       Violation. - Any person who violates any provision of a declaration or executive order issued pursuant to this section shall be guilty of a Class 2 misdemeanor in accordance with G.S. 14-288.20A.  (Former G.S. 14-288.15: 1969, c. 869, s. 1; 1993, c. 539, s. 197; 1994, Ex. Sess., c. 24, s. 14(c). Former G.S. 166A-6: 1951, c. 1016, s. 4; 1955, c. 387, s. 4; 1959, c. 284, s. 2; c. 337, s. 4; 1975, c. 734, ss. 11, 14; 1977, c. 848, s. 2; 1979, 2nd Sess., c. 1310, s. 2; 1993, c. 321, s. 181(a); 1995, c. 509, s. 125; 2001-214, s. 3; 2011-145, s. 19.1(g); 2011-183, s. 127(c); 2012-90, s. 1; 2012-12, s. 1(b); 2014-100, s. 14.7(i).)

https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/HTML/BySection/Chapter_14/GS_14-288.20A.html (https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/HTML/BySection/Chapter_14/GS_14-288.20A.html)

Quote§ 14-288.20A.  Violation of emergency prohibitions and restrictions.
Any person who does any of the following is guilty of a Class 2 misdemeanor:
(1)        Violates any provision of an ordinance or a declaration enacted or declared pursuant to G.S. 166A-19.31.
(2)        Violates any provision of a declaration or executive order issued pursuant to G.S. 166A-19.30.
(3)        Willfully refuses to leave the building as directed in a Governor's order issued pursuant to G.S. 166A-19.78.  (2012-12, s. 1(d).)

And here's a copy of the stay-at-home order:

https://files.nc.gov/governor/documents/files/EO121-Stay-at-Home-Order-3.pdf (https://files.nc.gov/governor/documents/files/EO121-Stay-at-Home-Order-3.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 02:53:57 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
I hope those cops wear masks...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.

Great, now we're a "papers please" country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 31, 2020, 03:25:56 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.

Great, now we're a "papers please" country.

Northern Italy says "join the club".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 03:27:16 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.

Great, now we're a "papers please" country.

It was going to cross that line eventually when the first emergency declarations were made.  It looks at the moment some of the eastern states are going to be more aggressive. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 04:03:13 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 12:33:47 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:29:45 PM
Men charged with violating North Carolina's stay-at-home order while protesting outside abortion clinic (https://www.pilotonline.com/news/vp-nw-coronavirus-arrests-protest-20200331-3qfbjrmzknhz5jh47yuvqj4pge-story.html?fbclid=IwAR087VFCCnl6c7uMes_w6BgI_Q5sIWyfQR0WCZjUEX-aApk38fMsag-V48I)
QuoteSeven people have been charged with violating stay-at-home orders while protesting Monday outside an abortion clinic in Greensboro, authorities said.

Greensboro police said the seven demonstrators gathered outside A Woman's Choice of Greensboro were asked to leave because they were violating stay-at-home orders prompted by the new coronavirus. Police said the protesters refused.

Jason Oesterreich, Justin Reeder, Isaiah Burner, Andre Gonzalez, Richard Whittier, Leroy Stokes Jr., and John Mcatee were charged with violating Guilford County's stay-at-home order and resisting a public officer.

It wasn't the first time police had broken up a protest outside the clinic during the restrictions. Oesterreich, Reeder, Burner, and Carl Ubinas were charged with similar offenses after a protesting outside the clinic on Saturday, authorities said.

Police said the men were part of a group that contacted police before gathering outside the clinic on Saturday. Police told the leader of the group that their gathering would be considered nonessential and protesters would be given a citation or be arrested.

Authorities have said the order was imposed to stop the spread of the global pandemic.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper set new restrictions on business operations and prohibitions of gatherings of more than 10 people on Friday. Police said they will try to get violators to voluntarily comply with disperse requests but violators could ultimately be charged with a class 2 misdemeanor.

It's unclear if any of the men charged have attorneys.

Well, the order does apply only to gatherings of more than 10 - not 7.

But if the protesters were actually blocking access to the clinic, that would be illegal - pandemic or not.
It isn't for that.  It's because they weren't engaged in an essential activity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 31, 2020, 04:23:17 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 01:23:59 PM
Your mention of snowbirds makes me wonder if Florida is going to get a bit more representation in the House and Electoral College than it otherwise would have.

I don't know, it's certainly an interesting question. Given the northbound rush of traffic from Florida during the time frame when this all hit, I think it might end up being more or less a wash. No doubt there's some folks that came back early (for what seems to be an early spring) and some that would have come back around now that are sheltering in place in Florida instead.


Quote from: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 01:23:59 PM
In any case, the effect with respect to college towns means that the results of the 2020 Census are going to be garbage.  There is a lot of statistical work that is done based off Census data - basically all urban and government planning depends on it - beyond redistricting.  Since the 2020 Census is going to be very, very inaccurate with respect to typical conditions, the results should not be used any more than a state should make long-range plans based off of traffic counts completed right now.

There's got to be some way to reconcile the situation to the point where the legitimacy of the census is kept intact. It's a little different than traffic counts in the sense that people are supposed to be reducing their travel right now, so the counts can just be put off and resume as normal later, while the census is a constitutional requirement with decade-long repercussions.
I'm just not sure how it's going to happen within the framework of the existing census questions: how do you identify who the college students are and where they normally would be on April 1st? Is there some sort of data sharing that could legally be worked out between the colleges and the census bureau directly? I wish I knew.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on March 31, 2020, 04:52:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:59:42 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on March 31, 2020, 12:56:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Anyone have the actual North Carolina statute that was actually applied to the circumstance above?
I don't, but I would love to see it.

While I agree people need to stay at home, social distance, etc., I can't see how this can actually be a chargeable offense.

I'm betting they were charged under some sort of "disturbing the peace"  type of law.  Usually those are vague enough to fall open to interpretation for any kind of civil unrest.

I imagine they were standing not nearly six feet apart, either, unless the clinic has a *very* wide entrance.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 31, 2020, 05:02:38 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 04:03:13 PM
It isn't for that.  It's because they weren't engaged in an essential activity.

ISTM that protests are an "essential activity", as an exercise of First Amendment free speech and assembly rights. 

If you're not crazy about this particular anti-abortion protest, what about a picket line (no more than ten people, spaced six feet apart) protesting government failures in doing battle against the epidemic?

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 12:59:42 PM
I'm betting they were charged under some sort of "disturbing the peace"  type of law.  Usually those are vague enough to fall open to interpretation for any kind of civil unrest.

The U.S. Supreme Court has stepped in against selective enforcement of such laws, or other laws specifically targeting protests near abortion clinics, to squelch anti-abortion protests (IIRC, in a case coming out of Massachusetts).

Quote from: ixnay on March 31, 2020, 04:52:09 PM
I imagine they were standing not nearly six feet apart, either, unless the clinic has a *very* wide entrance.

Unless they were on a public sidewalk, walking past the entrance. 

They might need to create a wider gap (at least twelve feet) as needed to let someone safely enter or exit the clinic. Protesters can still try to guilt-trip clinic clients and staff, but not block access.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: noelbotevera on March 31, 2020, 05:22:39 PM
My county is now under shelter-in-place orders until April 30th. The neighboring county, Fulton, isn't.

Okay, sure, that makes sense.

(context: Franklin County and Chambersburg are basically located in a valley, and Franklin County is basically the most populous county in this area thus reporting the most cases. Fulton County is beyond a mountain and is far more rural so they're reporting less cases. Naturally I'd expect PA to err on the side of caution and declare Fulton to shelter-in-place but...they didn't.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on March 31, 2020, 08:10:29 PM
Considering the strain on hospitals, this would be the time to not close abortion clinics (either by state orders or protests preventing access). Texas, Alabama, and Ohio have tried to close them down as part of shelter-in-place, but thankfully they were denied by federal judges (but Texas has an active appeal).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 09:00:34 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
Yikes.  I hope NY never goes that far.  I absolutely, positively, can't stand the idea of having to justify myself to authority figures.  It's the reason I've always hated crossing the border.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on March 31, 2020, 09:28:21 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 09:00:34 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
Yikes.  I hope NY never goes that far.  I absolutely, positively, can't stand the idea of having to justify myself to authority figures.  It's the reason I've always hated crossing the border.

Ditto. I hope NC law enforcement comes to its senses, and its VA (or DC or MD) counterparts don't follow that bad example. People going to and from work can carry and show their papers. But I can't possibly document my need for non-work local travel, to shop for groceries, or a restaurant to grab some breakfast at its drive-thru, or the post office to pick up mail for a friend who's housebound after leg surgery, or to my friend's house to check in on him and deliver his mail, or my storage unit to retrieve and update an external hard drive as part of replacing my laptop, or to a hardware store to buy a voltmeter, or to an auto parts store if my car needs a new battery, or my dentist next week if that appointment doesn't get delayed again.

Having to get and show papers just for leaving your house, like in at least parts of Italy, is more oppressive than is warranted in our circumstances.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 31, 2020, 09:48:28 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 10:10:03 AM

Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 31, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
The Census is not going to be moved, end of discussion.

Rest in peace, poor census takers...

We had a census taker come to our house a couple of months ago.  She came in, asked a whole lot of questions, filled our her forms, all of that jazz.  Now we've been getting reminders in the mail that we're required by law to fill out a census survey.  So what the heck was the census taker doing all that time, then??  Stupid bureaucracy...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on March 31, 2020, 09:49:30 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 27, 2020, 09:50:06 PM
Or maybe it's like the common cold (which is a coronavirus, after all)

Most colds are not caused by a coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on March 31, 2020, 10:01:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 31, 2020, 09:48:28 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 10:10:03 AM

Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 31, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
The Census is not going to be moved, end of discussion.

Rest in peace, poor census takers...

We had a census taker come to our house a couple of months ago.  She came in, asked a whole lot of questions, filled our her forms, all of that jazz.  Now we've been getting reminders in the mail that we're required by law to fill out a census survey.  So what the heck was the census taker doing all that time, then??  Stupid bureaucracy...

Sure that was a census taker?

Usually the first step in the census is people self-submitting their info online or via the phone, and that's going on now. Most field workers wouldn't hit the streets till summer of 2020.

Bad enough you let them in the house. Hopefully you didnt give too much personal information.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 11:11:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 31, 2020, 09:48:28 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 10:10:03 AM

Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 31, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
The Census is not going to be moved, end of discussion.

Rest in peace, poor census takers...

We had a census taker come to our house a couple of months ago.  She came in, asked a whole lot of questions, filled our her forms, all of that jazz.  Now we've been getting reminders in the mail that we're required by law to fill out a census survey.  So what the heck was the census taker doing all that time, then??  Stupid bureaucracy...
I don't believe you could get a census takers couple of months ago until you live in rural Alaska. Otherwise no door to door until at least this week we planned
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 31, 2020, 11:24:54 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on March 31, 2020, 10:01:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on March 31, 2020, 09:48:28 PM
Quote from: kalvado on March 31, 2020, 10:10:03 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on March 31, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
The Census is not going to be moved, end of discussion.
Rest in peace, poor census takers...
We had a census taker come to our house a couple of months ago.  She came in, asked a whole lot of questions, filled our her forms, all of that jazz.  Now we've been getting reminders in the mail that we're required by law to fill out a census survey.  So what the heck was the census taker doing all that time, then??  Stupid bureaucracy...

Sure that was a census taker?
Usually the first step in the census is people self-submitting their info online or via the phone, and that's going on now. Most field workers wouldn't hit the streets till summer of 2020.
Bad enough you let them in the house. Hopefully you didnt give too much personal information.

Yikes, yeah, I was thinking the exact same thing.
Census Day is tomorrow, so there's no way any census takers would have been in the field before now, much less a few months ago.
This year in particular, between the online option and the coronavirus, there's all the more reason for them to be reducing field work where possible.

https://2020census.gov/en/avoiding-fraud.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on March 31, 2020, 11:26:30 PM
In other news, wait, what?? How did this thread earn a sticky?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ErmineNotyours on March 31, 2020, 11:51:30 PM
On the religion topic: Pastor arrested for holding services amid virus outbreak (https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/Florida-officials-seek-arrest-for-pastor-that-15168415.php)

QuoteTAMPA, Fla. (AP) – Florida officials have arrested the pastor of a megachurch after detectives say he held two Sunday services with hundreds of people and violated a safer-at-home order in place to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

According to jail records, Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne turned himself in to authorities Monday afternoon in Hernando County, where he lives. He was charged with unlawful assembly and violation of a public health emergency order. Bail was set at $500, according to the jail's website, and he was released after posting bond. [etc.]
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 01, 2020, 12:05:07 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Is it?...I haven't heard of anything happening in Southern California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 12:33:40 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 01, 2020, 12:05:07 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Is it?...I haven't heard of anything happening in Southern California.
Santa Clara County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 01, 2020, 12:57:25 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 12:33:40 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 01, 2020, 12:05:07 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Is it?...I haven't heard of anything happening in Southern California.
Santa Clara County.

Santa Clara County isn't Southern California.  I digress though, what exactly happened?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 02:24:50 AM
Responding to a post from another thread (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26574.msg2486457#msg2486457) that's more relevant here:

Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on March 24, 2020, 03:53:01 PM
And by the way,

Life expectancy in Italy is 82.54 years.  In the US it's 78.69 years.

The infant mortality rate in Italy is 2.6 deaths per 1000 live births.  In the US it's 5.8 deaths per 1000 live births.

So, I don't think it's fair or accurate to say that Italy has a substandard healthcare system compared to that of the US.  If anything, these important metrics seem to indicate that the US has a substandard health care system to Italy.

It really depends on what you're looking at and why. The United States performs poorly compared to its first world peers on life expectancy and infant mortality, but this isn't because our healthcare system itself is less capable - it's because not everyone has equal access to it. Americans who lack the means to receive proper healthcare drag these metrics down.

Otherwise, Americans who do have access to healthcare enjoy higher standards of it. And fortunately for the purposes of fighting covid, governments have been stepping up and working to eliminate barriers to access for this specifically.

Here's a good sniff test: New York City has a population comparable to but slightly lower than Lombardy (8.4 million vs. 10.1 million). New York City has over 40,000 confirmed cases and is still treating everyone who requires hospitalization. By the time Lombardy got to that many cases, they were already picking and choosing who to attempt to save.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 01, 2020, 02:37:15 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 02:24:50 AM
Americans who lack the means to receive proper healthcare drag these metrics down.

But isn't that their point? If all Americans had better and equal access to proper healthcare, our metrics might improve.

I don't know if that's actually true, but that seems to be the consensus among countries with socialised medicine: America shoots itself in the foot by providing exceptional healthcare to most, but also then providing very little to those who cannot otherwise afford insurance, or access it through work; the latter group has (presumably) higher rates of infant mortality and lower life expectancies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 01, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Thought-processes like this makes it extremely hard for countries like the US to get pandemics like this under control.  By the summer months we'll be saying "China did a much better job containing the virus to just a few months".  But their people had a better understanding of just staying at home.  The same people complaining here in the US bitch about their Constitutional Rights won't stay the hell home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 01, 2020, 07:48:06 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 01, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about “where they are going and why” by a police officer under the pretense of “reasonable suspicion.”.  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these “stay at home orders” might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Thought-processes like this makes it extremely hard for countries like the US to get pandemics like this under control.  By the summer months we'll be saying "China did a much better job containing the virus to just a few months".  But their people had a better understanding of just staying at home.  The same people complaining here in the US bitch about their Constitutional Rights won't stay the hell home.

Because some people take "their constitutional right" to mean "I should be able to do whatever I want to regardless of how it may impact my fellow man, and therefore I will" to an entitled extreme. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Mapmikey on April 01, 2020, 08:06:57 AM
Quote from: oscar on March 31, 2020, 09:28:21 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 09:00:34 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
Yikes.  I hope NY never goes that far.  I absolutely, positively, can't stand the idea of having to justify myself to authority figures.  It's the reason I've always hated crossing the border.

Ditto. I hope NC law enforcement comes to its senses, and its VA (or DC or MD) counterparts don't follow that bad example. People going to and from work can carry and show their papers. But I can't possibly document my need for non-work local travel, to shop for groceries, or a restaurant to grab some breakfast at its drive-thru, or the post office to pick up mail for a friend who's housebound after leg surgery, or to my friend's house to check in on him and deliver his mail, or my storage unit to retrieve and update an external hard drive as part of replacing my laptop, or to a hardware store to buy a voltmeter, or to an auto parts store if my car needs a new battery, or my dentist next week if that appointment doesn't get delayed again.

Having to get and show papers just for leaving your house, like in at least parts of Italy, is more oppressive than is warranted in our circumstances.

I don't think the DC region is going to do much stopping of traffic to check why you're out, given the large number of federal facilities that have some kind of operations still going on (though my employer has said to carry the Atty General memo with us).  Even down in Fredericksburg there is still a fair amount of traffic but the only place I've seen a cop in my limited forays out are by a playground with hoops and a ball field as a deterrent for folks wanting to get out there in groups.  People are still walking the Rappahannock River trails with no hassles.

I think law enforcement will concentrate (as NC should be doing) on what people are doing once they exit the vehicle.  Doing the stuff on your list?  Almost certainly ok as long as the establishment (in Virginia) complies with the <10 customer rule.  Congregating in groups (for whatever reason)?  Then you're going to be questioned. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 01, 2020, 08:10:05 AM
Quote from: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 09:00:34 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
Yikes.  I hope NY never goes that far.  I absolutely, positively, can't stand the idea of having to justify myself to authority figures.  It's the reason I've always hated crossing the border.

Apparently, the level of enforcement in NC varies. The Johnston County Sheriff has said that his deputies would not be randomly pulling people over.

https://jocoreport.com/sheriff-bizzell-releases-statement-on-stay-at-home-order/ (https://jocoreport.com/sheriff-bizzell-releases-statement-on-stay-at-home-order/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 01, 2020, 08:18:10 AM
Quote from: Mapmikey on April 01, 2020, 08:06:57 AM
Quote from: oscar on March 31, 2020, 09:28:21 PM
Quote from: vdeane on March 31, 2020, 09:00:34 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
Yikes.  I hope NY never goes that far.  I absolutely, positively, can't stand the idea of having to justify myself to authority figures.  It's the reason I've always hated crossing the border.

Ditto. I hope NC law enforcement comes to its senses, and its VA (or DC or MD) counterparts don't follow that bad example. People going to and from work can carry and show their papers. But I can't possibly document my need for non-work local travel, to shop for groceries, or a restaurant to grab some breakfast at its drive-thru, or the post office to pick up mail for a friend who's housebound after leg surgery, or to my friend's house to check in on him and deliver his mail, or my storage unit to retrieve and update an external hard drive as part of replacing my laptop, or to a hardware store to buy a voltmeter, or to an auto parts store if my car needs a new battery, or my dentist next week if that appointment doesn't get delayed again.

Having to get and show papers just for leaving your house, like in at least parts of Italy, is more oppressive than is warranted in our circumstances.

I don't think the DC region is going to do much stopping of traffic to check why you're out, given the large number of federal facilities that have some kind of operations still going on (though my employer has said to carry the Atty General memo with us).  Even down in Fredericksburg there is still a fair amount of traffic but the only place I've seen a cop in my limited forays out are by a playground with hoops and a ball field as a deterrent for folks wanting to get out there in groups.  People are still walking the Rappahannock River trails with no hassles.

I think law enforcement will concentrate (as NC should be doing) on what people are doing once they exit the vehicle.  Doing the stuff on your list?  Almost certainly ok as long as the establishment (in Virginia) complies with the <10 customer rule.  Congregating in groups (for whatever reason)?  Then you're going to be questioned.

I went into Danville yesterday morning (I live outside city limits), and you'd never know there was a stay-at-home order, judging by the amount of traffic. The only cop I saw was a state trooper cruising along with traffic. Granted, I don't know how many were "essential" or how many were just giving Northam the middle finger...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 08:38:57 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 01, 2020, 07:48:06 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 01, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about “where they are going and why” by a police officer under the pretense of “reasonable suspicion.”.  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these “stay at home orders” might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Thought-processes like this makes it extremely hard for countries like the US to get pandemics like this under control.  By the summer months we'll be saying "China did a much better job containing the virus to just a few months".  But their people had a better understanding of just staying at home.  The same people complaining here in the US bitch about their Constitutional Rights won't stay the hell home.

Because some people take "their constitutional right" to mean "I should be able to do whatever I want to regardless of how it may impact my fellow man, and therefore I will" to an entitled extreme. 

I think the bigger issue is that China likely wouldn't hesitate to execute people in a summary fashion if they ignored these sorts of orders, so of course they probably see better adherence to these sorts of things than the US does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 09:17:04 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 08:38:57 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 01, 2020, 07:48:06 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 01, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about "where they are going and why"  by a police officer under the pretense of "reasonable suspicion." .  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these "stay at home orders"  might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Thought-processes like this makes it extremely hard for countries like the US to get pandemics like this under control.  By the summer months we'll be saying "China did a much better job containing the virus to just a few months".  But their people had a better understanding of just staying at home.  The same people complaining here in the US bitch about their Constitutional Rights won't stay the hell home.

Because some people take "their constitutional right" to mean "I should be able to do whatever I want to regardless of how it may impact my fellow man, and therefore I will" to an entitled extreme. 

I think the bigger issue is that China likely wouldn't hesitate to execute people in a summary fashion if they ignored these sorts of orders, so of course they probably see better adherence to these sorts of things than the US does.
Europe doing steep fines - hundreds and even thousands. I wonder if approach similar to parking - pay first, appeal later - can be implemented towards these fines. A bit short of execution, but a strong enough reminder. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 09:31:21 AM
The two films most appropriate to view at this time would be:  Fahrenheit 451 and Dr. Strangelove.

When watching the latter checkout the similarities between Doctors Fauci and Strangelove.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 01, 2020, 09:41:20 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 08:38:57 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 01, 2020, 07:48:06 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 01, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on March 31, 2020, 11:52:13 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on March 31, 2020, 01:41:50 PM
Reading the order and seeing the statute applied that certainly leaves the door open for people start being questioned about “where they are going and why” by a police officer under the pretense of “reasonable suspicion.”.  Granted I doubt that something like charging people with crimes for things like protests is going to upset many in the general public.  Nonetheless there might be some hidden escalation of how these “stay at home orders” might be enforced going forward in some states and jurisdictions.

A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.
It's also happening in SoCal. They have essentially suspended freedom of movement.

Thought-processes like this makes it extremely hard for countries like the US to get pandemics like this under control.  By the summer months we'll be saying "China did a much better job containing the virus to just a few months".  But their people had a better understanding of just staying at home.  The same people complaining here in the US bitch about their Constitutional Rights won't stay the hell home.

Because some people take "their constitutional right" to mean "I should be able to do whatever I want to regardless of how it may impact my fellow man, and therefore I will" to an entitled extreme. 

I think the bigger issue is that China likely wouldn't hesitate to execute people in a summary fashion if they ignored these sorts of orders, so of course they probably see better adherence to these sorts of things than the US does.
Agreed that it's an issue.  Not sure if it is bigger.  Both issues exist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 01, 2020, 11:35:50 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 02:24:50 AMIt really depends on what you're looking at and why. The United States performs poorly compared to its first world peers on life expectancy and infant mortality, but this isn't because our healthcare system itself is less capable - it's because not everyone has equal access to it. Americans who lack the means to receive proper healthcare drag these metrics down.

Otherwise, Americans who do have access to healthcare enjoy higher standards of it. And fortunately for the purposes of fighting covid, governments have been stepping up and working to eliminate barriers to access for this specifically.

Here's a good sniff test: New York City has a population comparable to but slightly lower than Lombardy (8.4 million vs. 10.1 million). New York City has over 40,000 confirmed cases and is still treating everyone who requires hospitalization. By the time Lombardy got to that many cases, they were already picking and choosing who to attempt to save.

I agree that the US health care system leads to better outcomes for certain categories of disease, such as cancer, than most if not all socialized medical systems in Europe, but I don't think a comparison of triaging between Lombardy and NYC really tells us much.  The age structure is different, smoking is more prevalent in Italy, the level of antibiotic resistance is likely higher there, and different terminology for similar types of intake may mask how perfunctory treatment really is for hopeless cases in NYC.

In any event, the Associated Press is now reporting the use of forklift trucks to load dead bodies into refrigerated trailers in NYC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 11:39:02 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 01, 2020, 11:35:50 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 02:24:50 AMIt really depends on what you're looking at and why. The United States performs poorly compared to its first world peers on life expectancy and infant mortality, but this isn't because our healthcare system itself is less capable - it's because not everyone has equal access to it. Americans who lack the means to receive proper healthcare drag these metrics down.

Otherwise, Americans who do have access to healthcare enjoy higher standards of it. And fortunately for the purposes of fighting covid, governments have been stepping up and working to eliminate barriers to access for this specifically.

Here's a good sniff test: New York City has a population comparable to but slightly lower than Lombardy (8.4 million vs. 10.1 million). New York City has over 40,000 confirmed cases and is still treating everyone who requires hospitalization. By the time Lombardy got to that many cases, they were already picking and choosing who to attempt to save.

I agree that the US health care system leads to better outcomes for certain categories of disease, such as cancer, than most if not all socialized medical systems in Europe, but I don't think a comparison of triaging between Lombardy and NYC really tells us much.  The age structure is different, smoking is more prevalent in Italy, the level of antibiotic resistance is likely higher there, and different terminology for similar types of intake may mask how perfunctory treatment really is for hopeless cases in NYC.

In any event, the Associated Press is now reporting the use of forklift trucks to load dead bodies into refrigerated trailers in NYC.
NYC is not at peak yet as well, things will get worse...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: thspfc on April 01, 2020, 11:49:57 AM
Is this the first time that a thread about an event has been stickied?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 01, 2020, 12:03:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 01, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
But their people had a better understanding of just staying at home.

Perhaps more precisely, their people have a better understanding of "do what the government says, or else".
It's a totally reversed mindset to what we're used to here in the US: "why would I listen to the government?" vs. "how could I even consider not listening to the government?"

Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 08:38:57 AM
I think the bigger issue is that China likely wouldn't hesitate to execute people in a summary fashion if they ignored these sorts of orders, so of course they probably see better adherence to these sorts of things than the US does.

Yeah, we have no idea what's going on there. They've got conflicting interests (public health vs. the economy) on a scale that's hard to even comprehend, which is no doubt why they're trying so hard to keep information under wraps.
They're not fooling anyone but themselves by reporting fewer deaths than the US though... that's not even remotely believable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 7/8 on April 01, 2020, 12:04:34 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 09:31:21 AM
The two films most appropriate to view at this time would be:  Fahrenheit 451 and Dr. Strangelove.

When watching the latter checkout the similarities between Doctors Fauci and Strangelove.

You forgot Contagion (a more intense version of COVID-19) :colorful:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 12:11:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.

Great, now we're a "papers please" country.

We have been ever since our driver's licenses became Soviet-style "Internal Passports".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 12:47:23 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 01, 2020, 12:03:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 01, 2020, 07:40:42 AM
But their people had a better understanding of just staying at home.

Perhaps more precisely, their people have a better understanding of "do what the government says, or else".
It's a totally reversed mindset to what we're used to here in the US: "why would I listen to the government?" vs. "how could I even consider not listening to the government?"

Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 08:38:57 AM
I think the bigger issue is that China likely wouldn't hesitate to execute people in a summary fashion if they ignored these sorts of orders, so of course they probably see better adherence to these sorts of things than the US does.

Yeah, we have no idea what's going on there. They've got conflicting interests (public health vs. the economy) on a scale that's hard to even comprehend, which is no doubt why they're trying so hard to keep information under wraps.
They're not fooling anyone but themselves by reporting fewer deaths than the US though... that's not even remotely believable.

I would say China is probably fairly honest. Unlike US, they got qualified people working these tasks; and their skills are battle-tested in SARS epidemics.
Numbers add up pretty reasonably.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 01, 2020, 01:39:42 PM
Regarding the abortion protests, there's a controversy ongoing in Kentucky about this. The governor has banned elective medical procedures under the terms of his emergency order. A number of people are upset that he's extended this prohibition to things like eye and dental exams, elective surgery, etc., but not elective abortions when the mother's life or health are not at risk. Some are even posting figures with the daily number of babies killed in Kentucky each day vs. virus fatalities. Others are saying that if the shortage of masks, gloves, and other medical equipment is as severe as some say it is, that equipment that is used for elective abortions could instead be used by medical personnel treating those infected by the virus. I know Planned Parenthood, ACLU, etc., have opposed such closures in other states, but it seems funny to me that an invented right such as abortion is upheld while actual enumerated rights such as the freedom of religion and freedom of assembly are being curtailed by executive order, and no one says a word.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:21:41 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 01, 2020, 01:39:42 PM
Regarding the abortion protests, there's a controversy ongoing in Kentucky about this. The governor has banned elective medical procedures under the terms of his emergency order. A number of people are upset that he's extended this prohibition to things like eye and dental exams, elective surgery, etc., but not elective abortions when the mother's life or health are not at risk. Some are even posting figures with the daily number of babies killed in Kentucky each day vs. virus fatalities. Others are saying that if the shortage of masks, gloves, and other medical equipment is as severe as some say it is, that equipment that is used for elective abortions could instead be used by medical personnel treating those infected by the virus. I know Planned Parenthood, ACLU, etc., have opposed such closures in other states, but it seems funny to me that an invented right such as abortion is upheld while actual enumerated rights such as the freedom of religion and freedom of assembly are being curtailed by executive order, and no one says a word.

The reasons behind all of this are complicated.

But they can't just prohibit all private gatherings. That would be unconstitutional. They'll do it, but it's not constitutional.

I heard that some church around here held services in the parking lot, and worshipers stayed in their cars. I'm sure that's allowable. The virus won't get into someone else's car from 100 feet away. A virus does what it can naturally do, and that's about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on April 01, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
It's just too bad that there are those out there who think "Constitutional Rights" allow their poor behavior.  The reality is that no one has the right to become a disease vector and infect others (which is essentially what those having large private gatherings are doing).  People right now should be adult and informed enough to realize they need to be proactive and smart about their activities, even if it's inconvenient or downright depressing (I'm in day 21 of my general isolation and my cats are getting sick of my conversation topics).  The US is leading the world in infections and there's very likely a correlation between that and "muh rights". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 01, 2020, 02:32:52 PM
Michigan's Executive Order states:
QuoteConsistent with prior guidance, a place of religious worship, when used for religious worship, is not subject to penalty under section 14.

And that is immediately followed by a separation of powers statement:
QuoteNothing in this order should be taken to interfere with or infringe on the powers of the legislative and judicial branches to perform their constitutional duties or exercise their authority.

EDIT: I agree with the above, the ability to do something because you have the right to do it, doesn't make it the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:38:46 PM
Some of these things are a matter of constitutional law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TravelingBethelite on April 01, 2020, 03:22:19 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 12:11:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.

Great, now we're a "papers please" country.

We have been ever since our driver's licenses became Soviet-style "Internal Passports".

How long has it been like that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 03:26:38 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:38:46 PM
Some of these things are a matter of constitutional law.
One of those situations where there is no good solution.
Limiting basic constitutional rights by an executive order and for an extended period of time is an undesired precedent (to say hte least)
Allowing those rights to be exercised in epidemics is pretty stupid as well.
Asking people to cooperate? Not really going to work.

Martial law may be harsh, but much more clear way of doing things. In-between solutions are... what they are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 01, 2020, 03:38:40 PM
So if the churches are allowed to remain open and someone gets the Corona virus, is it "God's Will"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 01, 2020, 03:40:03 PM
Florida has joined the "stay-at-home" club.

https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/orders/2020/EO_20-91.pdf (https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/orders/2020/EO_20-91.pdf)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 04:20:13 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:38:46 PM
Some of these things are a matter of constitutional law.
Here's the thing.

There is case law that affirms the government's right to quarantine someone.

There is no case law, AFIAK, that affirms the government's right to totally restrict freedom of movement outside of a time of war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 04:21:14 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 03:26:38 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:38:46 PM
Some of these things are a matter of constitutional law.
One of those situations where there is no good solution.
Limiting basic constitutional rights by an executive order and for an extended period of time is an undesired precedent (to say hte least)
Allowing those rights to be exercised in epidemics is pretty stupid as well.
Asking people to cooperate? Not really going to work.

Martial law may be harsh, but much more clear way of doing things. In-between solutions are... what they are.
There's no provision in the Constitution to suspend it completely.

Habeus corpus can be suspended, but only by Congress and only in a time of war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 01, 2020, 04:33:07 PM
Too idealistic and impossible to actually occur...but things would change real quick if people could be held criminally and/or civilly liable if it could be proven that their actions in defiance of these orders caused a specific spread of the virus that caused a death or permanent injury to someone else, including members of your own family.

Wanna go out and perform non-essential duties?  Have at it.  Further the spread?  See you in court.
Again, impossible to actually prove with solid evidence.

BUT...someone, somewhere, is going to attempt a lawsuit like this civilly if it hasn't occurred already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 04:45:58 PM
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on April 01, 2020, 03:22:19 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 12:11:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.

Great, now we're a "papers please" country.

We have been ever since our driver's licenses became Soviet-style "Internal Passports".

How long has it been like that?

New Jersey started requiring photo driver's licenses in the early 1980's.  However they were so unpopular that the requirement was soon revoked.  However, beginning in 2004 the State made them mandatory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 04:47:35 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 04:21:14 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 03:26:38 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:38:46 PM
Some of these things are a matter of constitutional law.
One of those situations where there is no good solution.
Limiting basic constitutional rights by an executive order and for an extended period of time is an undesired precedent (to say hte least)
Allowing those rights to be exercised in epidemics is pretty stupid as well.
Asking people to cooperate? Not really going to work.

Martial law may be harsh, but much more clear way of doing things. In-between solutions are... what they are.
There's no provision in the Constitution to suspend it completely.

Habeus corpus can be suspended, but only by Congress and only in a time of war.

Abraham Lincoln did it unilaterally anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 04:48:54 PM
Quote from: 7/8 on April 01, 2020, 12:04:34 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 09:31:21 AM
The two films most appropriate to view at this time would be:  Fahrenheit 451 and Dr. Strangelove.

When watching the latter checkout the similarities between Doctors Fauci and Strangelove.

You forgot Contagion (a more intense version of COVID-19) :colorful:

Is there a good motion picture version of George Orwell's 1984?  That would be appropriate viewing for these times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 01, 2020, 05:03:20 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 04:48:54 PM
Quote from: 7/8 on April 01, 2020, 12:04:34 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 09:31:21 AM
The two films most appropriate to view at this time would be:  Fahrenheit 451 and Dr. Strangelove.

When watching the latter checkout the similarities between Doctors Fauci and Strangelove.

You forgot Contagion (a more intense version of COVID-19) :colorful:

Is there a good motion picture version of George Orwell's 1984?  That would be appropriate viewing for these times.

Hence why the Pandemic Movie thread was made. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 05:09:05 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 04:48:54 PM
Quote from: 7/8 on April 01, 2020, 12:04:34 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 09:31:21 AM
The two films most appropriate to view at this time would be:  Fahrenheit 451 and Dr. Strangelove.

When watching the latter checkout the similarities between Doctors Fauci and Strangelove.

You forgot Contagion (a more intense version of COVID-19) :colorful:

Is there a good motion picture version of George Orwell's 1984?  That would be appropriate viewing for these times.
I prefer Escape from New York.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 05:20:45 PM
Q: What is an Economic Stimulus payment?
A: It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q: Where will the government get this money?
A: From taxpayers.

Q: So the government is giving me back my own money?
A: Only a smidgen of it.

Q: What is the purpose of this payment?
A: The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a high definition television set, a new iPad, or a new SUV, thus stimulating the economy.

Q: Isn't that stimulating the economy of China ?
A: Shut up.


Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the U. S. Economy with and your stimulus check wisely:

* If you spend the stimulus money at Walmart the money will go to China or Sri Lanka.
* if you spend it on gasoline, your money goes to the Arabs.
* if you purchase a computer, it goes to India, Taiwan or China.
* if you purchase fruits and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala.
* if you buy an efficient car, it will go to Japan or Korea.
* if you purchase useless stuff, it goes to Taiwan.
* if you pay your credit card off, or buy stock, it will go to the management bonuses and they will hide it offshore.

Instead keep the money in America by:

(1) Spending it at a yard sale, or
(2) Go to a ballgame, or
(3) Spend it on prostitutes, or
(4) Beer, or
(5) Tattoos
(These are the only American businesses still operating in the U.S.)

CONCLUSION: Go to a ballgame with a tattooed prostitute that you met at a yard sale and drink beer all day. No need to thank me, I'm just glad I could be of help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 05:22:12 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 05:20:45 PM
Q: What is an Economic Stimulus payment?
A: It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q: Where will the government get this money?
A: From taxpayers.

Q: So the government is giving me back my own money?
A: Only a smidgen of it.

Q: What is the purpose of this payment?
A: The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a high definition television set, a new iPad, or a new SUV, thus stimulating the economy.

Q: Isn't that stimulating the economy of China ?
A: Shut up.


Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the U. S. Economy with and your stimulus check wisely:

* If you spend the stimulus money at Walmart the money will go to China or Sri Lanka.
* if you spend it on gasoline, your money goes to the Arabs.
* if you purchase a computer, it goes to India, Taiwan or China.
* if you purchase fruits and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala.
* if you buy an efficient car, it will go to Japan or Korea.
* if you purchase useless stuff, it goes to Taiwan.
* if you pay your credit card off, or buy stock, it will go to the management bonuses and they will hide it offshore.

Instead keep the money in America by:

(1) Spending it at a yard sale, or
(2) Go to a ballgame, or
(3) Spend it on prostitutes, or
(4) Beer, or
(5) Tattoos
(These are the only American businesses still operating in the U.S.)

CONCLUSION: Go to a ballgame with a tattooed prostitute that you met at a yard sale and drink beer all day. No need to thank me, I'm just glad I could be of help.

It would be hilarious if everyone spent it on bubble gum and blew the World's Biggest Bubble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 05:31:37 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 05:20:45 PM
Q: What is an Economic Stimulus payment?
A: It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q: Where will the government get this money?
A: From taxpayers.

Q: So the government is giving me back my own money?
A: Only a smidgen of it.

Q: What is the purpose of this payment?
A: The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a high definition television set, a new iPad, or a new SUV, thus stimulating the economy.

Q: Isn't that stimulating the economy of China ?
A: Shut up.


Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the U. S. Economy with and your stimulus check wisely:

* If you spend the stimulus money at Walmart the money will go to China or Sri Lanka.
* if you spend it on gasoline, your money goes to the Arabs.
* if you purchase a computer, it goes to India, Taiwan or China.
* if you purchase fruits and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala.
* if you buy an efficient car, it will go to Japan or Korea.
* if you purchase useless stuff, it goes to Taiwan.
* if you pay your credit card off, or buy stock, it will go to the management bonuses and they will hide it offshore.

Instead keep the money in America by:

(1) Spending it at a yard sale, or
(2) Go to a ballgame, or
(3) Spend it on prostitutes, or
(4) Beer, or
(5) Tattoos
(These are the only American businesses still operating in the U.S.)

CONCLUSION: Go to a ballgame with a tattooed prostitute that you met at a yard sale and drink beer all day. No need to thank me, I'm just glad I could be of help.
No.

* It goes directly to Walmart, who then orders more product at wholesale value.
* It goes directly to the gas station, which then buys more gas on a contract for a wholesale price.  Affiliated gas stations by affiliated fuel.  Oil companies aren't allowed to directly own gas stations.
* It goes to the company in that country.
* It goes to the grocery store, which then buys fruit at wholesale from a food distributor, like McLane.
* It goes to the dealership, which buys the cars from the manufacturer at a slim margin.
* Or other countries
* Credit card companies make their money off swipe fees, interest, and cardholder fees.  Stock is, for most of us, bought through a broker who then makes the order on the market on our behalf.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 01, 2020, 05:33:21 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 05:20:45 PM
Q: What is an Economic Stimulus payment?
A: It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q: Where will the government get this money?
A: From taxpayers.

Q: So the government is giving me back my own money?
A: Only a smidgen of it.

Q: What is the purpose of this payment?
A: The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a high definition television set, a new iPad, or a new SUV, thus stimulating the economy.

Q: Isn't that stimulating the economy of China ?
A: Shut up.

Dave Barry, is that you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on April 01, 2020, 05:49:37 PM
In all likelihood, the payment will cover a bit of the rent due today for many Americans. And since this is a one-time payment instead of a monthly one (Canada is doing a four-month, $2K/mo program, for example), it is not going to be sufficient for those waiting for the unemployment queues to open up.

But hey, we've bailed out those poor and impoverished corporations again. USA! USA!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 05:54:09 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 01, 2020, 04:47:35 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 04:21:14 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 03:26:38 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:38:46 PM
Some of these things are a matter of constitutional law.
One of those situations where there is no good solution.
Limiting basic constitutional rights by an executive order and for an extended period of time is an undesired precedent (to say hte least)
Allowing those rights to be exercised in epidemics is pretty stupid as well.
Asking people to cooperate? Not really going to work.

Martial law may be harsh, but much more clear way of doing things. In-between solutions are... what they are.
There's no provision in the Constitution to suspend it completely.

Habeus corpus can be suspended, but only by Congress and only in a time of war.

Abraham Lincoln did it unilaterally anyway.

And he was afraid he'd be impeached for it at the end of the war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 01, 2020, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 01, 2020, 05:49:37 PM
In all likelihood, the payment will cover a bit of the rent due today for many Americans. And since this is a one-time payment instead of a monthly one (Canada is doing a four-month, $2K/mo program, for example), it is not going to be sufficient for those waiting for the unemployment queues to open up.

But hey, we've bailed out those poor and impoverished corporations again. USA! USA!
Its possible Congressional leaders push for more money to individual Americans.

And I wouldn't be so quick to assume big corporations have cash for days.  Some mega cap companies are cutting executive pay and dividends to shareholders to save up for the long haul.  Many have taking out huge lines of credit.  The mid and small-caps have it even worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 05:59:52 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 01, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
The US is leading the world in infections and there's very likely a correlation between that and "muh rights". 

Only in the pure, raw number, which is rather meaningless in of and by itself.  You want to look at the per capita numbers to get a better look at it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Using the per capita metric, the US (639 cases per million) is better than Germany (929 cases per million), nowhere even close to Italy (1829 cases per million) or Spain (2227 cases per million).  And right there (14 per million) with Germany (11 per million) on deaths, and well behind Italy (218 per million) and Spain (201 per million).  Note: all numbers as of 4:58 pm, April 1, 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 06:23:38 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 05:59:52 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 01, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
The US is leading the world in infections and there's very likely a correlation between that and "muh rights". 

Only in the pure, raw number, which is rather meaningless in of and by itself.  You want to look at the per capita numbers to get a better look at it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Using the per capita metric, the US (639 cases per million) is better than Germany (929 cases per million), nowhere even close to Italy (1829 cases per million) or Spain (2227 cases per million).  And right there (14 per million) with Germany (11 per million) on deaths, and well behind Italy (218 per million) and Spain (201 per million).  Note: all numbers as of 4:58 pm, April 1, 2020.
Most European numbers show the slow down tendency, at least on a log scale. US has only a week trend for now, so there is a chance to come out as #1 after all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 06:29:55 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 06:23:38 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 05:59:52 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 01, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
The US is leading the world in infections and there's very likely a correlation between that and "muh rights". 

Only in the pure, raw number, which is rather meaningless in of and by itself.  You want to look at the per capita numbers to get a better look at it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Using the per capita metric, the US (639 cases per million) is better than Germany (929 cases per million), nowhere even close to Italy (1829 cases per million) or Spain (2227 cases per million).  And right there (14 per million) with Germany (11 per million) on deaths, and well behind Italy (218 per million) and Spain (201 per million).  Note: all numbers as of 4:58 pm, April 1, 2020.
Most European numbers show the slow down tendency, at least on a log scale. US has only a week trend for now, so there is a chance to come out as #1 after all.

Cheering for it much? /snark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 06:31:39 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 06:29:55 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 01, 2020, 06:23:38 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 05:59:52 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 01, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
The US is leading the world in infections and there's very likely a correlation between that and "muh rights". 

Only in the pure, raw number, which is rather meaningless in of and by itself.  You want to look at the per capita numbers to get a better look at it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Using the per capita metric, the US (639 cases per million) is better than Germany (929 cases per million), nowhere even close to Italy (1829 cases per million) or Spain (2227 cases per million).  And right there (14 per million) with Germany (11 per million) on deaths, and well behind Italy (218 per million) and Spain (201 per million).  Note: all numbers as of 4:58 pm, April 1, 2020.
Most European numbers show the slow down tendency, at least on a log scale. US has only a week trend for now, so there is a chance to come out as #1 after all.

Cheering for it much? /snark.
Not really. Just a pinch of sarcasm
I am not too far from NYC. It's quiet here, but maybe the storm is coming....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 06:41:13 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 05:59:52 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 01, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
The US is leading the world in infections and there's very likely a correlation between that and "muh rights". 

Only in the pure, raw number, which is rather meaningless in of and by itself.  You want to look at the per capita numbers to get a better look at it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Using the per capita metric, the US (639 cases per million) is better than Germany (929 cases per million), nowhere even close to Italy (1829 cases per million) or Spain (2227 cases per million).  And right there (14 per million) with Germany (11 per million) on deaths, and well behind Italy (218 per million) and Spain (201 per million).  Note: all numbers as of 4:58 pm, April 1, 2020.

Also, the United States is far worse per capita than countries that did not issue any lockdowns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 01, 2020, 06:48:11 PM
The UK, the Netherlands, and Sweden have decided to go for the herd immunity strategy. They are doing very poorly.

Iceland seems to be doing really well with the deaths:recovered ratio, and somehow India has very few cases for its population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on April 01, 2020, 07:23:36 PM
Our resort town (I'm a Nevada resident but pretty much adjacent to South Lake Tahoe, CA) is very quiet, but maybe not as quiet as some expect or want.

Anecdotally, some people from urban areas (mostly the Bay Area, Sacramento and LA) who own property up here as vacation homes or income property are coming up to stay because they feel safer out of that urban environment.  If you're working from home it doesn't really matter whether home is "down there" or at Tahoe.  Snow usually keeps many of those folks away for several months but we're close to done with that.  While vacation rentals are supposed to be shut down, as are the hotels, it may also be that some who can afford it are renting those places for more than 30 days, thus making them "long term rentals" rather than vacation rentals.

Grocery stores are open, not crowded and mostly well-stocked unless you need TP.  There are also plenty of restaurants on the low end open for takeout, so fast food, pizza and the Denny's and IHOP type stuff is available, usually with shorter hours.

Driving US 50 through town is traffic-wise the easiest it has ever been in all my years as a full-time resident.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 01, 2020, 08:46:05 PM
I saw an article where Michigan could see 10-20% of their restaurants go under. If that is the case, I expect fine dining to take the biggest hit and fast food and pizza places will weather it the best (as fast food already has a drive-thru feature and many pizza places have no dining room to begin with or a very small one, with most business being take-out or delivery).

In Michigan, it seems like places that have been allowed to remain open have had to reduce their hours. For example, a local convenience store chain that has always been open 24/7/365 (even on Christmas!) will now be open 5am-midnight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 01, 2020, 08:51:27 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 01, 2020, 05:59:52 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 01, 2020, 02:27:32 PM
The US is leading the world in infections and there's very likely a correlation between that and "muh rights". 

Only in the pure, raw number, which is rather meaningless in of and by itself.  You want to look at the per capita numbers to get a better look at it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Using the per capita metric, the US (639 cases per million) is better than Germany (929 cases per million), nowhere even close to Italy (1829 cases per million) or Spain (2227 cases per million).  And right there (14 per million) with Germany (11 per million) on deaths, and well behind Italy (218 per million) and Spain (201 per million).  Note: all numbers as of 4:58 pm, April 1, 2020.
Europe is also a good 2-3 weeks ahead of us on the curve, so there's still a LOT of time for things to get worse.  It's hard to imagine, but we're still in the beginning of that curve.  Right now the peak isn't estimated to hit until late April!

Quote from: TravelingBethelite on April 01, 2020, 03:22:19 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 01, 2020, 12:11:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on March 31, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on March 31, 2020, 02:53:12 PM
A friend of mine works at Franklin Baking in Goldsboro, NC and he said that the cops were enforcing that order pretty heavily. He already got stopped once, but once he showed them a paper he got from his job, they let him go. Can't speak for other areas of NC, though.

Great, now we're a "papers please" country.

We have been ever since our driver's licenses became Soviet-style "Internal Passports".

How long has it been like that?
I'm guessing he's referring to things like how you need it for things like flying, entering federal buildings, etc.  I'm old enough to remember a time when just anyone could walk into a terminal with no idea and only a metal detector for security (no line either, unless you caused the metal detector to beep the whole process didn't even take 15 seconds).  Mom and I used to drop Dad off right at the gate when he went on business travel and wait there for him when he returned.

Quote from: bandit957 on April 01, 2020, 02:21:41 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 01, 2020, 01:39:42 PM
Regarding the abortion protests, there's a controversy ongoing in Kentucky about this. The governor has banned elective medical procedures under the terms of his emergency order. A number of people are upset that he's extended this prohibition to things like eye and dental exams, elective surgery, etc., but not elective abortions when the mother's life or health are not at risk. Some are even posting figures with the daily number of babies killed in Kentucky each day vs. virus fatalities. Others are saying that if the shortage of masks, gloves, and other medical equipment is as severe as some say it is, that equipment that is used for elective abortions could instead be used by medical personnel treating those infected by the virus. I know Planned Parenthood, ACLU, etc., have opposed such closures in other states, but it seems funny to me that an invented right such as abortion is upheld while actual enumerated rights such as the freedom of religion and freedom of assembly are being curtailed by executive order, and no one says a word.

The reasons behind all of this are complicated.

But they can't just prohibit all private gatherings. That would be unconstitutional. They'll do it, but it's not constitutional.

I heard that some church around here held services in the parking lot, and worshipers stayed in their cars. I'm sure that's allowable. The virus won't get into someone else's car from 100 feet away. A virus does what it can naturally do, and that's about it.
The local news showed such a service in Schenectady.  Those cars didn't look like they were 6 feet or more apart, so with your windows down to hear the service, the virus could spread if any of those cars had more than the driver inside (many had full families in what was shown, so the passenger and the driver in the adjacent car would only have been 2-3 feet away from each other).  It's less close contact than a regular service, but still not really social distancing.

Quote from: gonealookin on April 01, 2020, 07:23:36 PM
Grocery stores are open, not crowded and mostly well-stocked unless you need TP.
Just did groceries tonight.  Shelves are still low but not as bad as they were.  Had to compromise on bread and go to a different store for soup.  The brand of bread I buy seems to get sparser every time I go, which isn't a good sign, especially since other brands have so many slices in a loaf that it would start to go bad before I finished (also, it would be hard to put it in a large freezer bag to keep safe from the ants that once broke into my pantry).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on April 01, 2020, 09:33:22 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 01, 2020, 08:51:27 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on April 01, 2020, 07:23:36 PM
Grocery stores are open, not crowded and mostly well-stocked unless you need TP.
Just did groceries tonight.  Shelves are still low but not as bad as they were.  Had to compromise on bread and go to a different store for soup.  The brand of bread I buy seems to get sparser every time I go, which isn't a good sign, especially since other brands have so many slices in a loaf that it would start to go bad before I finished (also, it would be hard to put it in a large freezer bag to keep safe from the ants that once broke into my pantry).

Put the loaf in a freezer bag and then into a freezer, it's the best place to keep it.  Then take what you need out of the freezer, thaw it (does not take vary long) and eat it.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on April 01, 2020, 09:39:13 PM
Quote from: webny99 on March 31, 2020, 11:26:30 PM
In other news, wait, what?? How did this thread earn a sticky?
Welp that didn't last that long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 01, 2020, 09:40:55 PM
I drove by Costco at 10 AM this morning to see if it was even worth an attempt.  There was a line of about 400 people at the Clovis Avenue store.  It seemed pointless to try to fight a crowd like that when all I needed was food, so I went to Vons instead.  Vons aside from cleaning product was fully stocked and was about normal shopping volume.  I haven't really spent much time in the city this past three weeks so it was weird to see so many people dressed like Neo-Plague Doctors. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 09:49:51 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 01, 2020, 02:37:15 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 02:24:50 AM
Americans who lack the means to receive proper healthcare drag these metrics down.

But isn't that their point? If all Americans had better and equal access to proper healthcare, our metrics might improve.

My point is that the inferior overall results of the American healthcare system on standard metrics in normal times should not be taken as indicative that the American healthcare system is less capable of handling a virus outbreak specifically. Covid has nothing to do with life expectancy or infant mortality, and past performance is not predictive of future performance.

Quote from: hbelkins on April 01, 2020, 01:39:42 PM
Regarding the abortion protests, there's a controversy ongoing in Kentucky about this. The governor has banned elective medical procedures under the terms of his emergency order. A number of people are upset that he's extended this prohibition to things like eye and dental exams, elective surgery, etc., but not elective abortions when the mother's life or health are not at risk.

I think the important point here is that while an abortion may be "elective" in the sense that there is usually no medical necessity for one, it is still time-sensitive in all cases. You can skip your dentist appointment for now and come back in six months and it's no big deal. With abortions, that for obvious reasons isn't possible - any woman who is prevented from getting one during the virus outbreak will likely miss her window of opportunity to do so and be forced to carry the baby to term. This is, of course, exactly what the folks clamoring for the procedure to be suspended want, but it does run afoul of the established legal precedent that women can't be forced to do that.

Quote from: vdeane on April 01, 2020, 08:51:27 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on April 01, 2020, 07:23:36 PM
Grocery stores are open, not crowded and mostly well-stocked unless you need TP.
Just did groceries tonight.  Shelves are still low but not as bad as they were.  Had to compromise on bread and go to a different store for soup.  The brand of bread I buy seems to get sparser every time I go, which isn't a good sign, especially since other brands have so many slices in a loaf that it would start to go bad before I finished (also, it would be hard to put it in a large freezer bag to keep safe from the ants that once broke into my pantry).

You can just put the loaf of bread straight in the freezer without otherwise rebagging it. That's what I always do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 02, 2020, 01:33:28 AM
The United States Constitution wasn't meant to be a monarchical imposition of the will of a king or a founder on everyone else, but was meant to reflect the values of the Declaration of Independence, which states that all men are created equal.  The most wise should not make themselves like the most foolish, who go and party on the beach and commit mass murder by picking up and spreading viruses.  It was hoped that the wisdom of any common man could rise up and advise the leaders.  That is what equality means.  When freedom of religion means human sacrifice, and when freedom of speech means lying under oath, then we must realize that these freedoms must have limits.  True freedom is not a right to do whatever the fuck you want, but is the wisdom to know why you do what you must.  Our founders left us a beautiful heritage.  It is a heritage that is guided by wisdom and enlightenment.  They were slaveholders who preached equality.  They hoped that we would equally be believers in words who could also be believers in ideals.

How many people are you willing to murder in order to assert you constitutional right to run around being a stupid fucktard?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 07:49:32 AM
^^^

Murder?  That's an equally big as problem that there are people running around right now making declarations like that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 02, 2020, 08:21:20 AM
Does anyone know what Germany is doing differently from other European countries that is causing it to have a really good death:recovery ratio? Compare Germany's deaths to Italy, Spain, and France. (Iceland is doing even better with this ratio as I mentioned before, but there's a small sample size there.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 02, 2020, 08:34:31 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 30, 2020, 02:42:18 PM
The Constitution does not require "separation of church and state." Wish I had $1 for every time I've read or heard that it does. What the Constitution (First Amendment) does stipulate is that the government cannot establish an official religion, or prohibit anyone from worshipping freely as they see fit. It also does not permit the government to restrict the ability of the people to peaceably assemble.


Churches are required to abide by fire codes, building codes, etc.  This is no different.

It is irresponsible for Churches to assemble during this time.  They are endangering the safety of more than their own members.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 02, 2020, 10:17:16 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 02, 2020, 08:21:20 AM
Does anyone know what Germany is doing differently from other European countries that is causing it to have a really good death:recovery ratio? Compare Germany's deaths to Italy, Spain, and France. (Iceland is doing even better with this ratio as I mentioned before, but there's a small sample size there.)

For one, a nationwide lockdown until mid-April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
Apparently an engineer tried to ram his train into a hospital ship down in Los Angeles because he was "suspicious"  about the military vessel being present:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/engineer-tried-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles-233500380--abc-news-topstories.html

To that end the conspiracy crowd has started to pop up again on social media platforms also.  The whole thing about tanks being transported on trains thing is started to crop up again on Facebook as a common example. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 02, 2020, 11:30:26 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 02, 2020, 08:34:31 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on March 30, 2020, 02:42:18 PM
The Constitution does not require "separation of church and state." Wish I had $1 for every time I've read or heard that it does. What the Constitution (First Amendment) does stipulate is that the government cannot establish an official religion, or prohibit anyone from worshipping freely as they see fit. It also does not permit the government to restrict the ability of the people to peaceably assemble.


Churches are required to abide by fire codes, building codes, etc.  This is no different.

It is irresponsible for Churches to assemble during this time.  They are endangering the safety of more than their own members.

God's will?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on April 02, 2020, 11:33:10 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
The whole thing about trains being transported on trains thing is started to crop up again on Facebook as a common example.

Huh? I haven't had my caffeine for the day yet, but am I missing something here? Train on a train?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 11:40:02 AM
Quote from: DaBigE on April 02, 2020, 11:33:10 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
The whole thing about trains being transported on trains thing is started to crop up again on Facebook as a common example.

Huh? I haven't had my caffeine for the day yet, but am I missing something here? Train on a train?

Tanks, I just went back and corrected it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 02, 2020, 01:04:10 PM
With the capability for video arraignments these days, there is absolutely no reason for habeas corpus to be suspended for any reason.




The whole thing just reeks of a complete lack of good judgment. If you're at risk, or if you regularly interact with someone who's at risk, your behavior should be drastically different than someone who is not at risk. I've said this before; my behavior would be drastically different if I was still looking after my dad. Remember, I've said that he was very susceptible to the common cold, and anytime this big, strong man who lost a leg in Korea but could still outwork most people half his age until he was up in his late 60s or early 70s caught a cold, he'd practically be bedridden for a week. So if I had a cold, I wouldn't go around him. If I had to take him something, I'd stick it inside the door and leave.

It's like, why do people not use birth control if they have sex? They know how people get pregnant. Why do people use meth or coke or heroin for the first time? They know those are highly addictive substances. Why do they start smoking? Everyone knows tobacco's not good for you.

There are outliers, which garner all the headlines, but most of those who are dying or become seriously ill are members of the at-risk groups (elderly, immunocompromised, etc.). Everyone's talking about the 20-year-old who might go to a party and catch it and give it to grandma. Well, don't go see grandma!

There are a lot of things I'm more worried about than catching the virus. Tick-borne illnesses (Lyme disease, spotted fever, alpha-gal) and being bitten by a venomous snake are two of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on April 02, 2020, 01:04:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
Apparently an engineer tried to ram his train into a hospital ship down in Los Angeles because he was "suspicious"  about the military vessel being present:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/engineer-tried-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles-233500380--abc-news-topstories.html

To that end the conspiracy crowd has started to pop up again on social media platforms also.  The whole thing about tanks being transported on trains thing is started to crop up again on Facebook as a common example.

We've had similar waves of comments around here as well. So many people forget that Oshkosh has several large contracts with the military for humvee replacement vehicles (JLTVs), as well as refubs of other military vehicles. Bad timing for shipment? Maybe. But common sense would say they should be used to seeing them by now. No one screams martial law when EAA fly-in time rolls around and there are dozens of vehicles awaiting work or shipment, sitting in fields across from the airport.  :pan:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 02, 2020, 02:25:50 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 09:49:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 01, 2020, 08:51:27 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on April 01, 2020, 07:23:36 PM
Grocery stores are open, not crowded and mostly well-stocked unless you need TP.
Just did groceries tonight.  Shelves are still low but not as bad as they were.  Had to compromise on bread and go to a different store for soup.  The brand of bread I buy seems to get sparser every time I go, which isn't a good sign, especially since other brands have so many slices in a loaf that it would start to go bad before I finished (also, it would be hard to put it in a large freezer bag to keep safe from the ants that once broke into my pantry).

You can just put the loaf of bread straight in the freezer without otherwise rebagging it. That's what I always do.

That's actually what I do for whole loaves when I buy them before I need them (even when I'm not buying groceries days in advance, this happens about 50% of the time; at 2 slices of toast with 2 eggs for breakfast, for every three grocery cycles synced to cartons of eggs I buy 2 loaves of bread, so the first week I start the bread immediately, the second I start it half way through, and the third I don't buy bread*).

*Except for now, because of the scarcity of bread, I'm buying a loaf if I can find what I regularly buy whether it's a week where I need to or not, in case it's missing the following week.

Quote from: 1 on April 02, 2020, 08:21:20 AM
Does anyone know what Germany is doing differently from other European countries that is causing it to have a really good death:recovery ratio? Compare Germany's deaths to Italy, Spain, and France. (Iceland is doing even better with this ratio as I mentioned before, but there's a small sample size there.)
Early testing, and they're not quite on the same cycle as Italy/France/Spain; their peak will be later
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/opinion/germany-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on April 02, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
Outer Banks residents angered by out-of-state license plates; people caught trying to sneak past checkpoints (https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health/vp-nw-coronavirus-wrong-plates-20200402-5bxhw6m67zgvvid3cola4tooyy-story.html?fbclid=IwAR0wbldr1iT6YwdVsdJic5hZXwdzKj5PWF7cKFZV5mDG8D2aeCUivxWyFO8)
QuoteJamie Banjak was driving through Kill Devil Hills Friday in a friend's car when a woman in a white van started blowing her horn and shouting obscenities. The driver wanted her to go back to where she belonged.

This wasn't about racism or even a dust up over driving habits, though. It was about the New York plates on her friend's car.

"It's crazy,"  said Banjak, who has been letting her friend stay with her at her Dare County home since February.

Tempers have been running high in the Outer Banks in recent weeks, with locals fearing "outsiders"  with license plates from New York, New Jersey and other states are bringing the coronavirus to their quiet seaside community.

It's talked about among neighbors, berated on social media and complained about to elected officials. Blame is going in many directions.

Dare County closed its borders to visitors on March 17 and set up checkpoints to enforce the ban. On March 20, the county expanded the restriction to include non-resident property owners. Currituck County did the same for the Corolla area.

The move, however, wasn't enough to keep the virus out. It was announced Tuesday that a second person in Dare County had tested positive for the coronavirus. Both gave addresses that were outside Dare County.

Officials this week stressed most of the out-of-towners they are seeing in the Outer Banks are allowed to be there. But some are not.

At least one person was caught attempting to enter in the trunk of a car. Some others have been catching rides with local friends. Another had his car hefted onto the back of a tow truck to get through, but was stopped.

Currituck County commissioner Bob White said about three dozen people tried to cross the Currituck Sound last weekend in boats and come into a canal north of Corolla. Currituck officers in boats turned them around, he said.

Kitty Hawk Police also verified a post on Craigslist offering rides onto the Outer Banks for a price.

Dare County has received reports that property managers are driving clients past the checkpoints. Dare County manager Bobby Outten wrote a long letter to the Outer Banks Association of Realtors asking its members to comply. So far, the reports are unfounded, he said.

"That's not happening,"  said Doug Brindley, owner of Brindley Beach Vacation and Sales and tourism board director for the association.

"If you can think of a way to try and get around, they are doing it,"  said Dare County Sheriff Doug Doughtie, whose deputies at the Wright Memorial Bridge on U.S. 158 are checking 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles a day.

The Warren Bridge over the Alligator River on U.S. 64 is easier to control with about 300 vehicles a day, he said.

Dare County is allowing some exceptions for people to pass, said Drew Pearson, director of the county's emergency management.

"We do have a heart,"  he said. "Some people have legitimate reasons, but they are few and far between."

People have tried to enter with phony hardship stories, said Dare County commissioner Steve House. The trickery is similar to when officers are trying to control reentry following a hurricane evacuation.

Officials declined to give specific examples.

"People find loopholes,"  House said. "We can't eliminate the risk, we're trying to minimize the risk. You're talking about a handful of people compared to 200,000 people who could be here."

But Ed Troutman, a member of the Corolla Civic Association, said it appeared non-residents were around in greater numbers than expected.

He saw five cars at one time with out-of-state license plates in the parking lot of a small shopping center last week. He and his neighbors have also seen them on the highway and parked at beach houses, he said.

His neighbors saw foreign exchange students working at a supermarket.

"We were shocked,"  he said.

Between 80 to 120 exchange students have been working on the Outer Banks since February and now can't get home, said Banjak, chairperson for the Outer Banks International Student Outreach Program, a support group,

Most of the students are from Ecuador where summer break comes during winter here, she said. The students lost their jobs in some cases and have sought other work.

"These students have not done anything wrong,"  she said.

Banjak knows members of the Coast Guard stationed on the Outer Banks who have plates from other states, she said.

House said he'd heard of people using their Outer Banks property to get new North Carolina drivers' licenses, but such a scheme would take time to pull off.

A new license would not arrive for about 10 days, according to the North Carolina Division of Motor Vehicles. Applicants would have to surrender their home-state license, too.

Bob White, chairman of the Currituck County Board of Commissioners, said there is a much simpler explanation for the out-of-state tags people are seeing on the road: They were already there when the borders were closed and decided not to leave.

People came out with warmer weather and their vehicles are more visible, he said.

"If you're looking for those plates, you're going to see them,"  he said. "We're stopping most of them from coming in."

I find it assuming they are prohibiting outside visitors, yet they are just free to travel wherever they please. Somebody could easily leave, go to an area with a COVID-19 outbreak, travel back, and start a new internal outbreak.

IMO, if we can't enter, why should they be allowed to leave? Why only one way? They get the ability to travel where they please, meanwhile no outside visitors allowed, even property owners.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 02, 2020, 02:30:02 PM
Remdesivir when?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 02, 2020, 05:29:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
Apparently an engineer tried to ram his train into a hospital ship down in Los Angeles because he was "suspicious"  about the military vessel being present:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/engineer-tried-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles-233500380--abc-news-topstories.html

To that end the conspiracy crowd has started to pop up again on social media platforms also.  The whole thing about tanks being transported on trains thing is started to crop up again on Facebook as a common example.

One of the comments on that article summed it up perfectly.

QuoteI think its safe to say Eduardo Moreno left the tracks long before Mercy sailed in to port.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 02, 2020, 05:40:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 02, 2020, 05:29:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:20:15 AM
Apparently an engineer tried to ram his train into a hospital ship down in Los Angeles because he was "suspicious"  about the military vessel being present:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/engineer-tried-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles-233500380--abc-news-topstories.html

To that end the conspiracy crowd has started to pop up again on social media platforms also.  The whole thing about tanks being transported on trains thing is started to crop up again on Facebook as a common example.

One of the comments on that article summed it up perfectly.

QuoteI think its safe to say Eduardo Moreno left the tracks long before Mercy sailed in to port.

He was off his trolley? :p
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 02, 2020, 06:55:22 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on April 02, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
I find it assuming they are prohibiting outside visitors, yet they are just free to travel wherever they please. Somebody could easily leave, go to an area with a COVID-19 outbreak, travel back, and start a new internal outbreak.

IMO, if we can't enter, why should they be allowed to leave? Why only one way? They get the ability to travel where they please, meanwhile no outside visitors allowed, even property owners.

They may not legally have the authority to tell residents they can't leave.

But beyond that, it's a question of what is perceived as being the real threat: under ordinary circumstances, the vast majority of people on the roads entering Dare County are visitors. So letting residents only in is still a much lower risk than letting everyone in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 02, 2020, 07:19:37 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 02, 2020, 06:55:22 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on April 02, 2020, 02:28:54 PM
I find it assuming they are prohibiting outside visitors, yet they are just free to travel wherever they please. Somebody could easily leave, go to an area with a COVID-19 outbreak, travel back, and start a new internal outbreak.

IMO, if we can't enter, why should they be allowed to leave? Why only one way? They get the ability to travel where they please, meanwhile no outside visitors allowed, even property owners.

They may not legally have the authority to tell residents they can't leave.

But beyond that, it's a question of what is perceived as being the real threat: under ordinary circumstances, the vast majority of people on the roads entering Dare County are visitors. So letting residents only in is still a much lower risk than letting everyone in.

And conveniently, visitors can't vote in local elections, while residents can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 02, 2020, 08:18:41 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 02, 2020, 02:25:50 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 01, 2020, 09:49:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 01, 2020, 08:51:27 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on April 01, 2020, 07:23:36 PM
Grocery stores are open, not crowded and mostly well-stocked unless you need TP.
Just did groceries tonight.  Shelves are still low but not as bad as they were.  Had to compromise on bread and go to a different store for soup.  The brand of bread I buy seems to get sparser every time I go, which isn't a good sign, especially since other brands have so many slices in a loaf that it would start to go bad before I finished (also, it would be hard to put it in a large freezer bag to keep safe from the ants that once broke into my pantry).

You can just put the loaf of bread straight in the freezer without otherwise rebagging it. That's what I always do.

That's actually what I do for whole loaves when I buy them before I need them (even when I'm not buying groceries days in advance, this happens about 50% of the time; at 2 slices of toast with 2 eggs for breakfast, for every three grocery cycles synced to cartons of eggs I buy 2 loaves of bread, so the first week I start the bread immediately, the second I start it half way through, and the third I don't buy bread*).

*Except for now, because of the scarcity of bread, I'm buying a loaf if I can find what I regularly buy whether it's a week where I need to or not, in case it's missing the following week.
Looks like I forgot the reason I replied in the first place.  Whoops!  To continue, when the loaf is in the freezer, the moisture leaves the bread and condenses on the packaging.  When I have it defrost for the hours leading up to use, the moisture goes back into the bread.  I fear that opening it early and not allowing the defrost process to work its magic, the loaf will dry out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

https://twitter.com/kmov/status/1245323809059753985?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 02, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

The toilet paper was all huge rolls designed for dispensers in business restrooms, not like what we'd use at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 02, 2020, 10:43:42 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 02, 2020, 08:18:41 PM
Looks like I forgot the reason I replied in the first place.  Whoops!  To continue, when the loaf is in the freezer, the moisture leaves the bread and condenses on the packaging.  When I have it defrost for the hours leading up to use, the moisture goes back into the bread.  I fear that opening it early and not allowing the defrost process to work its magic, the loaf will dry out.

I just take two slices out of the freezer and throw them straight in the toaster. Works fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 02, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

The toilet paper was all huge rolls designed for dispensers in business restrooms, not like what we'd use at home.

Single ply is still better than splintered.  I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 02, 2020, 10:55:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 02, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

The toilet paper was all huge rolls designed for dispensers in business restrooms, not like what we'd use at home.

Single ply is still better than splintered.  I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide.
i am not sure I want to enter any bathroom outside of my home these days.... Other than no wash hands, maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 11:03:23 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 02, 2020, 10:55:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 02, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

The toilet paper was all huge rolls designed for dispensers in business restrooms, not like what we'd use at home.

Single ply is still better than splintered.  I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide.
i am not sure I want to enter any bathroom outside of my home these days.... Other than no wash hands, maybe.

I haven't missed a single day of work (out of necessity) since I got back from Mexico and walk around an environment that takes me by at least 50-100 people a day.  For the most part there are far less crowds out in public and people are far more worried about germs than ever before.  To that end I'm finding public bathroom cleanings are occurring almost 1-3 hours everywhere I go. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on April 03, 2020, 12:34:37 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 02, 2020, 10:43:42 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 02, 2020, 08:18:41 PM
Looks like I forgot the reason I replied in the first place.  Whoops!  To continue, when the loaf is in the freezer, the moisture leaves the bread and condenses on the packaging.  When I have it defrost for the hours leading up to use, the moisture goes back into the bread.  I fear that opening it early and not allowing the defrost process to work its magic, the loaf will dry out.

I just take two slices out of the freezer and throw them straight in the toaster. Works fine.

You can also microwave frozen breads to thaw them out.  I use this trick on non-frozen breads and pastries to make them have a measure of "freshness".  15 seconds does the trick!

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 03, 2020, 06:39:05 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 02, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

The toilet paper was all huge rolls designed for dispensers in business restrooms, not like what we'd use at home.

Single ply is still better than splintered.  I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide. 

Like this: https://www.thetrucker.com/trucking-news/the-nation/toilet-paper-bandits-strike-rest-stops-along-i-80-in-nebraska
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 03, 2020, 07:04:34 AM
Growing up my family bought several loafs of bread at one time, then put most of them in the extra freezer we had in the basement.  We'd thaw them out when we were low on the current loaf.  I never noticed any issue.  I've never done that as an adult though.

We also never bought Wonder Bread.  That sticks in my mind also, probably because of the multi-colored packaging when I was a kid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 03, 2020, 08:38:36 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 02, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

The toilet paper was all huge rolls designed for dispensers in business restrooms, not like what we'd use at home.

Single ply is still better than splintered.  I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide. 

(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2Fproduction.photos.funnyordie.com%2Fupload%2Faff3567c9abaad4b798a350dc1e1b1a3%2FQqq9XcmQfW5VLOnbpwCQ_Elaine%2520Steals%2520TP.gif&hash=e3aca2d525e4f2227387e350ca842cabf702ebd2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 03, 2020, 09:15:41 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 03, 2020, 08:38:36 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 02, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 02, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Tragedy strikes in Texas.

The toilet paper was all huge rolls designed for dispensers in business restrooms, not like what we'd use at home.

Single ply is still better than splintered.  I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide. 

(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2Fproduction.photos.funnyordie.com%2Fupload%2Faff3567c9abaad4b798a350dc1e1b1a3%2FQqq9XcmQfW5VLOnbpwCQ_Elaine%2520Steals%2520TP.gif&hash=e3aca2d525e4f2227387e350ca842cabf702ebd2)

That's what happens when you don't have a square to spare. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on April 03, 2020, 10:48:05 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 03, 2020, 07:04:34 AM
Growing up my family bought several loafs of bread at one time, then put most of them in the extra freezer we had in the basement.  We'd thaw them out when we were low on the current loaf.  I never noticed any issue.  I've never done that as an adult though.

We also never bought Wonder Bread.  That sticks in my mind also, probably because of the multi-colored packaging when I was a kid.

Bread in our family's freezer for six months was still good.  Amazing isn't it?

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 03, 2020, 10:59:55 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 03, 2020, 10:48:05 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 03, 2020, 07:04:34 AM
Growing up my family bought several loafs of bread at one time, then put most of them in the extra freezer we had in the basement.  We'd thaw them out when we were low on the current loaf.  I never noticed any issue.  I've never done that as an adult though.

We also never bought Wonder Bread.  That sticks in my mind also, probably because of the multi-colored packaging when I was a kid.

Bread in our family's freezer for six months was still good.  Amazing isn't it?

Rick
I am emptying the fridge - there is too much food frozen and never retrieved.. The other day some chicken breast with 2017 label went onto the grill... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 03, 2020, 11:50:45 AM
One way to solve the bread problem is simply not to eat it in the first place.  This can be very helpful in preventing unwanted weight gain.

So far we have been able to remain stocked on a one-week cycle, though we have had a few issues:

*  We normally buy 14.5-oz cans of diced tomato but have had to settle for the 28-oz size.

*  Last week there were only two baking potatoes left in the bin, both with mold.

*  Fresh bagged carrots have been running low for several weeks now.  At our usual supermarket I have not been able to buy 2-lb bags for three weeks running, and last weekend I had to make do with three 1-lb bags (usually I buy 4 lb a week).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 03, 2020, 01:03:36 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide.

I think anyone that was minded to steal toilet paper was already doing it before COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 03, 2020, 01:20:41 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 03, 2020, 01:03:36 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 02, 2020, 10:48:08 PM
I'm surprised people aren't raiding the bathrooms of stores and offices nationwide.

I think anyone that was minded to steal toilet paper was already doing it before COVID-19.

Yeah but what I can tell you from catching people stealing for 19 years is that people will take things for resale if there is an opportunity.  It seems like most retails are putting measures in for crowd control which is a deterrent to that kind of thing.  That still leaves places like public restrooms open (as described above on I-80) to get hit if they easily accessible.  There was people putting things like toilet paper on eBay almost the day the panic started nationwide.  If that isn't being sold for a considerable markup then there is a strong chance the items are stolen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 03, 2020, 06:17:40 PM
I had to go pick up a prescription today and noticed two things:

1.) People around here can't social distance for shit.

2.) Apparently, many think the stay-at-home order was just a friendly suggestion. I haven't noticed any difference in traffic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on April 03, 2020, 06:39:58 PM
Today's rush hour in Seattle

https://twitter.com/Seattle2019nCov/status/1246203861213147136

Bus ridership is also way down, with some commuter routes down 90 percent (Community Transit's 400/800 series).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tdindy88 on April 03, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
This kind of makes me wonder, will we ever see the heavy traffic on the highways again? Or even heavy ridership on public transit. I'm hopeful that things return to what they were in some fashion in the future, but could enough things become permanent (such as working at home) that may make heavy rushes into a city center less necessary?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 03, 2020, 07:06:54 PM
I had posited in the roads closed thread about the question of pursuing stay at home offenders as a secondary violation. In Minnesota it appears this is indeed happening in cases as people stopped for drunk driving and other violations have also been hit with stay at home violations.

https://m.startribune.com/several-charged-across-state-with-violating-gov-walz-s-order-to-stay-home-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/569362232/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 03, 2020, 07:12:39 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on April 03, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
This kind of makes me wonder, will we ever see the heavy traffic on the highways again? Or even heavy ridership on public transit. I'm hopeful that things return to what they were in some fashion in the future, but could enough things become permanent (such as working at home) that may make heavy rushes into a city center less necessary?

IMO the amount of people working from home will be cancelled out by those who will probably drive a car over piling onto mass transit.  To that end highway traffic I think will return to normal and mass transit will suffer for a couple years while outbreaks occasionally linger.  Beyond that it will be interesting to see if many communities are dead set on pushing mass transit alternatives as they are now. 

To that end some stuff in the work place that will probably gain a stronger hold:

-  Flexible sick hours and less fascist-like attendance policies. 
-  More white collar jobs will likely move to at-home or partially at home schedules. 
-  There will probably be an even more increased demand for jobs that were deemed essential during the pandemic.  Interestingly it seems a lot of blue collar jobs like farming seem to be holding up the best during all of this.
-  Companies might begin a slow move away from being totally urban centric. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on April 03, 2020, 07:17:10 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on April 03, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
This kind of makes me wonder, will we ever see the heavy traffic on the highways again? Or even heavy ridership on public transit.

This kind of makes me not wonder but want to link B.J. Thomas's other Bacharach/David hit (50 years ago on the heels of "Raindrops...").   ;-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiLII1skGOU

Not all the lyrics fit the Covid situation accurately but some do.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on April 03, 2020, 07:43:16 PM
QuoteTo that end some stuff in the work place that will probably gain a stronger hold:

-  Flexible sick hours and less fascist-like attendance policies.
-  More white collar jobs will likely move to at-home or partially at home schedules.
-  There will probably be an even more increased demand for jobs that were deemed essential during the pandemic.  Interestingly it seems a lot of blue collar jobs like farming seem to be holding up the best during all of this.
-  Companies might begin a slow move away from being totally urban centric. 

I think that a first step for many office jobs should be the option of working from home in place of sick leave.  I have had many days over the years in which I have gone to work or school sick with mild symptoms because that was what I felt expected to do or that I would get behind quickly.  If am mildly sick, and I am fine enough to wake up and get on my computer, then I do not see why I could not productively work from home instead of potentially sickening others in the office if possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 03, 2020, 08:03:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 03, 2020, 07:12:39 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on April 03, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
This kind of makes me wonder, will we ever see the heavy traffic on the highways again? Or even heavy ridership on public transit. I'm hopeful that things return to what they were in some fashion in the future, but could enough things become permanent (such as working at home) that may make heavy rushes into a city center less necessary?

IMO the amount of people working from home will be cancelled out by those who will probably drive a car over piling onto mass transit.  To that end highway traffic I think will return to normal and mass transit will suffer for a couple years while outbreaks occasionally linger.  Beyond that it will be interesting to see if many communities are dead set on pushing mass transit alternatives as they are now. 

To that end some stuff in the work place that will probably gain a stronger hold:

-  Flexible sick hours and less fascist-like attendance policies. 
-  More white collar jobs will likely move to at-home or partially at home schedules. 
-  There will probably be an even more increased demand for jobs that were deemed essential during the pandemic.  Interestingly it seems a lot of blue collar jobs like farming seem to be holding up the best during all of this.
-  Companies might begin a slow move away from being totally urban centric. 

I think we may see some permanent traffic decline due to people working from home, and realizing that if their home doesn't have to be tied to the location of their job, it can be wherever they want it to be. Some upper-class people have been "working from home" from vacation properties in Lake Tahoe or Montana. If work from home becomes the norm instead of a temporary thing, some people may decide to permanently relocate to smaller towns, preferring that lifestyle, or taking advantage of lower property values.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 03, 2020, 09:16:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 03, 2020, 07:12:39 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on April 03, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
This kind of makes me wonder, will we ever see the heavy traffic on the highways again? Or even heavy ridership on public transit. I'm hopeful that things return to what they were in some fashion in the future, but could enough things become permanent (such as working at home) that may make heavy rushes into a city center less necessary?

IMO the amount of people working from home will be cancelled out by those who will probably drive a car over piling onto mass transit.  To that end highway traffic I think will return to normal and mass transit will suffer for a couple years while outbreaks occasionally linger.  Beyond that it will be interesting to see if many communities are dead set on pushing mass transit alternatives as they are now. 

I think it will be interesting, fascinating even, to watch what happens to traffic levels in the coming months. It's just wild to see the entire US basically traffic-free 24/7 now, and I just can't help but think that coronavirus is going to last longer than people are prepared to stay off the roads.

Obviously, the three biggest factors affecting traffic are (1) blue collar jobs, (2) white collar jobs, and (3) schools. (1) is still generating traffic in a very limited capacity, while (2) and (3) are basically generating no traffic at all right now. That isn't going to last forever, of course, so traffic levels at some point in the future are going to climb back into the ballpark of their pre-corona levels. The question is how gradual will it be (unknown) and will coronavirus start or accelerate longer-term trends in traffic patterns (likely).

Increased working from home was mentioned; that seems likely. But driving instead of flying on medium-length trips? Also likely. Reduced mass transit ridership? Also likely. So there's plenty of uncertainty about what the net impact on AADT volumes will be. But one thing's for sure: we are not going to be seeing NYC and LA and Seattle completely congestion-free at 4 PM for months and years on end, so enjoy it while it lasts!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 03, 2020, 11:08:49 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 03, 2020, 09:16:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 03, 2020, 07:12:39 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on April 03, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
This kind of makes me wonder, will we ever see the heavy traffic on the highways again? Or even heavy ridership on public transit. I'm hopeful that things return to what they were in some fashion in the future, but could enough things become permanent (such as working at home) that may make heavy rushes into a city center less necessary?

IMO the amount of people working from home will be cancelled out by those who will probably drive a car over piling onto mass transit.  To that end highway traffic I think will return to normal and mass transit will suffer for a couple years while outbreaks occasionally linger.  Beyond that it will be interesting to see if many communities are dead set on pushing mass transit alternatives as they are now. 

I think it will be interesting, fascinating even, to watch what happens to traffic levels in the coming months. It's just wild to see the entire US basically traffic-free 24/7 now, and I just can't help but think that coronavirus is going to last longer than people are prepared to stay off the roads.

Obviously, the three biggest factors affecting traffic are (1) blue collar jobs, (2) white collar jobs, and (3) schools. (1) is still generating traffic in a very limited capacity, while (2) and (3) are basically generating no traffic at all right now. That isn't going to last forever, of course, so traffic levels at some point in the future are going to climb back into the ballpark of their pre-corona levels. The question is how gradual will it be (unknown) and will coronavirus start or accelerate longer-term trends in traffic patterns (likely).

Increased working from home was mentioned; that seems likely. But driving instead of flying on medium-length trips? Also likely. Reduced mass transit ridership? Also likely. So there's plenty of uncertainty about what the net impact on AADT volumes will be. But one thing's for sure: we are not going to be seeing NYC and LA and Seattle completely congestion-free at 4 PM for months and years on end, so enjoy it while it lasts!
No I won't, I'm driving into a petri dish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on April 04, 2020, 12:46:47 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 03, 2020, 11:08:49 PMNo I won't, I'm driving into a petri dish.

You would have been driving into a petri dish anyway.  The difference now is that you're consciously aware of the nature of the destination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on April 04, 2020, 04:03:37 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 02, 2020, 08:21:20 AM
Does anyone know what Germany is doing differently from other European countries that is causing it to have a really good death:recovery ratio? Compare Germany's deaths to Italy, Spain, and France. (Iceland is doing even better with this ratio as I mentioned before, but there's a small sample size there.)

I would think that it is likely due to them counting such deaths as being due to their other serious/terminal conditions, coupled with advanced age, being the true causes of the deaths (ie, 'natural causes'), while this virus was simply the feather that pushed them over the edge.

I suspect that this also applies to other communicable illnesses, such as influenza.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 04, 2020, 07:23:21 AM
I wonder how much of the traffic declines are due to WFH, and how much is due simply to people being out of work?  Hopefully traffic will increase again as people are allowed to go back to work.

Yes, there will be a new reality once we get to the other side of this virus.  But what that reality looks like isn't possible to discern today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 07:58:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.

There has been a lot of pictures of I-405 as of late with little to no traffic during rush hour on California Highway groups on Facebook. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 08:06:16 AM
Before the virus, there was no way I, or anyone within the organization, could have worked from home.  We needed to be in the office, communicating with people, getting to our files, etc.  We had laptops to get by for a day if the state was closed due to snow or other emergency, and I think there was some sort of plan to work in an offsite building if our building wasn't available.

Then the virus hit.  My section already had the tools available to work from home (our laptops).  We can remotely access our servers.  I have an extra monitor at home, and another computer, and could almost fully do my job without interruption. The only thing I didn't have was files in a filing cabinet, but I can get around that if needed.

When we'll finally be allowed to return to work, I hope that they allow us to work from home 1 or 2 days a week. Clearly we have shown it can be done...after years of being told it can't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on April 04, 2020, 09:00:56 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 03, 1970, 09:33:39 AM

When we'll finally be allowed to return to work, I hope that they allow us to work from home 1 or 2 days a week. Clearly we have shown it can be done...after years of being told it can't.

I think that's going to be a big change across the country for all sorts of white collar jobs. Expect to see a lot more vendors for remote working on the market after this (above what there already was)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 04, 2020, 11:46:52 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200404/a0109fd703ef410abd4912e198c70a5b.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 07:58:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.

There has been a lot of pictures of I-405 as of late with little to no traffic during rush hour on California Highway groups on Facebook. 

Wow!  When the 405 is quiet during rush hour, you know This Is A Serious Situation!  Back in 1986, the top part of a ship coming to dock in Coos Bay hit the McCullough Bridge.  There went 101's traffic in North Bend.  Since I lived in the north end of town at that time, I had a front row seat to a deserted highway.  That was spooky enough. 

We also had a sense of humor.  Stickers came out saying "The Ship Hit The Span!".

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 12:19:28 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 07:58:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.

There has been a lot of pictures of I-405 as of late with little to no traffic during rush hour on California Highway groups on Facebook. 

Wow!  When the 405 is quiet during rush hour, you know This Is A Serious Situation!  Back in 1986, the top part of a ship coming to dock in Coos Bay hit the McCullough Bridge.  There went 101's traffic in North Bend.  Since I lived in the north end of town at that time, I had a front row seat to a deserted highway.  That was spooky enough. 

We also had a sense of humor.  Stickers came out saying "The Ship Hit The Span!".

Rick

I kind of question when a lot of those photos are being taken.  Even before the whole virus thing started I was able to get empty freeway photos out of the Bay Area and Los Angeles pretty easily at certain hours.  I posted a photo of I-280 in San Francisco which I took on a normal Sunday which was pretty much identical to a Virus-Time photo that was popular for about a week.  Freeways around Fresno have less volume but are far from empty. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on April 04, 2020, 12:49:54 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 03, 2020, 09:16:42 PM
I think it will be interesting, fascinating even, to watch what happens to traffic levels in the coming months. It's just wild to see the entire US basically traffic-free 24/7 now, and I just can't help but think that coronavirus is going to last longer than people are prepared to stay off the roads.

The morning traffic reports for Chicagoland still have occasional congestion on NB I-55 approaching I-90/I-94 (possibly related to work at the Circle Interchange), and congestion on I-55 through the work zone south of the Des Plaines River in Will County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 01:12:55 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 04, 2020, 12:49:54 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 03, 2020, 09:16:42 PM
I think it will be interesting, fascinating even, to watch what happens to traffic levels in the coming months. It's just wild to see the entire US basically traffic-free 24/7 now, and I just can't help but think that coronavirus is going to last longer than people are prepared to stay off the roads.

The morning traffic reports for Chicagoland still have occasional congestion on NB I-55 approaching I-90/I-94 (possibly related to work at the Circle Interchange), and congestion on I-55 through the work zone south of the Des Plaines River in Will County.

Chicago is beyond help with traffic.  Even in the zombie apocalypse the undead would have the Kennedy Expressway backed up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 12:19:28 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 07:58:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.

There has been a lot of pictures of I-405 as of late with little to no traffic during rush hour on California Highway groups on Facebook. 

Wow!  When the 405 is quiet during rush hour, you know This Is A Serious Situation!  Back in 1986, the top part of a ship coming to dock in Coos Bay hit the McCullough Bridge.  There went 101's traffic in North Bend.  Since I lived in the north end of town at that time, I had a front row seat to a deserted highway.  That was spooky enough. 

We also had a sense of humor.  Stickers came out saying "The Ship Hit The Span!".

Rick

I kind of question when a lot of those photos are being taken.  Even before the whole virus thing started I was able to get empty freeway photos out of the Bay Area and Los Angeles pretty easily at certain hours.  I posted a photo of I-280 in San Francisco which I took on a normal Sunday which was pretty much identical to a Virus-Time photo that was popular for about a week.  Freeways around Fresno have less volume but are far from empty. 

Agreed.  I've read various things online such as how much cleaner the air is now, yet a picture that has gotten a lot of attention shows plenty of smog.  There's nothing to really indicate the time or date of the pictures, and as much as people should have learned long ago that you shouldn't believe everything you see on the internet, people are quick to believe everything they see on the internet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 01:39:45 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 12:19:28 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 07:58:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.

There has been a lot of pictures of I-405 as of late with little to no traffic during rush hour on California Highway groups on Facebook. 

Wow!  When the 405 is quiet during rush hour, you know This Is A Serious Situation!  Back in 1986, the top part of a ship coming to dock in Coos Bay hit the McCullough Bridge.  There went 101's traffic in North Bend.  Since I lived in the north end of town at that time, I had a front row seat to a deserted highway.  That was spooky enough. 

We also had a sense of humor.  Stickers came out saying "The Ship Hit The Span!".

Rick

I kind of question when a lot of those photos are being taken.  Even before the whole virus thing started I was able to get empty freeway photos out of the Bay Area and Los Angeles pretty easily at certain hours.  I posted a photo of I-280 in San Francisco which I took on a normal Sunday which was pretty much identical to a Virus-Time photo that was popular for about a week.  Freeways around Fresno have less volume but are far from empty. 

Agreed.  I've read various things online such as how much cleaner the air is now, yet a picture that has gotten a lot of attention shows plenty of smog.  There's nothing to really indicate the time or date of the pictures, and as much as people should have learned long ago that you shouldn't believe everything you see on the internet, people are quick to believe everything they see on the internet.

I can't speak for Los Angeles since I don't live there but the difference in air quality 200 miles north is about the same or nominally different for a rainy year.  The rain picking up into Spring probably is a bigger factor in clearing up the air quality.  Usually by this time of year the rain is gone and the snow pack is already melting.  There is more rain the forecast for this next week which I'm sure will keep the air particulate free for awhile longer.

Regarding Los Angeles, pollution control measures in cars in general have reduced the smog level significantly in the last couple decades.  I can't recall a time in recent memory on a sunny day I worked around L.A. where I couldn't see the San Gabriels. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 04, 2020, 04:43:46 PM
Without getting too far into political territory, the Democratic National Convention will begin on August 17 instead of July 13.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/490811-democrats-to-delay-convention-until-august-sources (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/490811-democrats-to-delay-convention-until-august-sources)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 04, 2020, 04:53:39 PM
I went to the grocery store. Lots of clear signs saying not use this door. So guess what the three people walking towards the store in front of me did when they saw this.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200404/3d61db80d53ee6a3023896d8fcfed3fe.jpg)


I found a mask in my garage this morning. It was already out of the package, so it wasn't suitable for donating. Very uncomfortable to wear this, but I guess having the virus would be even more uncomfortable.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200404/703335c67ce5c453b96fed2101e858e6.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on April 04, 2020, 04:59:07 PM
Ft Belvoir Wegmans?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 04, 2020, 05:00:56 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on April 04, 2020, 04:59:07 PM
Ft Belvoir Wegmans?

Yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 04, 2020, 05:37:30 PM
^^^ Is that an N95 mask? I've heard they uncomfortably constrict air flow, but seem to be popular with painters in auto body shops and other non-medical craftsmen.

I have a few better-than-nothing consumer-grade surgical masks, several still in their plastic wrapping. I got a small box of those in December, pre-coronavirus, while I was fighting off a nasty cold. They provide some protection against my spreading to other people, but not as much as an N95 against my catching a virus or other bug from someone else.

BTW, does that Wegman's have TP in stock? My own stock is still OK (lucked into a six-pack of double rolls at the Walmart in Brevard NC, on my way back from Georgia), but was expecting to revisit that Wegman's if I started getting desperate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 04, 2020, 05:59:18 PM
It is indeed an N95 mask, according to the label. I didn't feel like it constricted the air flow so much as it was pinching my ears and was annoying with eyeglasses at the same time (but I need those for distance!). I had to take off my glasses before putting on or taking off the mask. I think we bought it some years back when we were resurfacing a table. Didn't know anything about N95 versus any other type at the time.

The paper product aisle was pretty cleaned out when I was there, but I should note it was mid-afternoon when I went, so that likely made a difference. Meat and produce were better-stocked than the past few weeks and they had big signs about limit two packages of any one type of meat per customer.

I have heard from other people that the best-stocked local stores are Lidl and the Asian markets. I haven't yet been to Lidl, though it's not at all far from us (Commerce Street in Springfield between Backlick Road and Brandon Avenue). Just haven't had reason to check it out yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 06:04:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 01:39:45 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 12:19:28 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 07:58:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.

There has been a lot of pictures of I-405 as of late with little to no traffic during rush hour on California Highway groups on Facebook. 

Wow!  When the 405 is quiet during rush hour, you know This Is A Serious Situation!  Back in 1986, the top part of a ship coming to dock in Coos Bay hit the McCullough Bridge.  There went 101's traffic in North Bend.  Since I lived in the north end of town at that time, I had a front row seat to a deserted highway.  That was spooky enough. 

We also had a sense of humor.  Stickers came out saying "The Ship Hit The Span!".

Rick

I kind of question when a lot of those photos are being taken.  Even before the whole virus thing started I was able to get empty freeway photos out of the Bay Area and Los Angeles pretty easily at certain hours.  I posted a photo of I-280 in San Francisco which I took on a normal Sunday which was pretty much identical to a Virus-Time photo that was popular for about a week.  Freeways around Fresno have less volume but are far from empty. 

Agreed.  I've read various things online such as how much cleaner the air is now, yet a picture that has gotten a lot of attention shows plenty of smog.  There's nothing to really indicate the time or date of the pictures, and as much as people should have learned long ago that you shouldn't believe everything you see on the internet, people are quick to believe everything they see on the internet.

I can’t speak for Los Angeles since I don’t live there but the difference in air quality 200 miles north is about the same or nominally different for a rainy year.  The rain picking up into Spring probably is a bigger factor in clearing up the air quality.  Usually by this time of year the rain is gone and the snow pack is already melting.  There is more rain the forecast for this next week which I’m sure will keep the air particulate free for awhile longer.

Regarding Los Angeles, pollution control measures in cars in general have reduced the smog level significantly in the last couple decades.  I can’t recall a time in recent memory on a sunny day I worked around L.A. where I couldn’t see the San Gabriels. 

When I came through the Southland on my way back to Oregon in February 1999, the clarity of the air down there surprised me.  Back in the Seventies, one could drive from Santa Monica to Palm Springs and never escape the smog.

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 06:47:04 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 06:04:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 01:39:45 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 12:19:28 PM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 07:58:21 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 06:45:15 AM
Quote from: nexus73 on April 04, 2020, 01:27:52 AM
Right now I am curious as to how the Hollywood Freeway and San Diego Freeway are doing?  Is it still very busy or is it like the earliest of morning hours on a holiday? 

Rick

I've been looking at traffic cameras online.

There has been a lot of pictures of I-405 as of late with little to no traffic during rush hour on California Highway groups on Facebook. 

Wow!  When the 405 is quiet during rush hour, you know This Is A Serious Situation!  Back in 1986, the top part of a ship coming to dock in Coos Bay hit the McCullough Bridge.  There went 101's traffic in North Bend.  Since I lived in the north end of town at that time, I had a front row seat to a deserted highway.  That was spooky enough. 

We also had a sense of humor.  Stickers came out saying "The Ship Hit The Span!".

Rick

I kind of question when a lot of those photos are being taken.  Even before the whole virus thing started I was able to get empty freeway photos out of the Bay Area and Los Angeles pretty easily at certain hours.  I posted a photo of I-280 in San Francisco which I took on a normal Sunday which was pretty much identical to a Virus-Time photo that was popular for about a week.  Freeways around Fresno have less volume but are far from empty. 

Agreed.  I've read various things online such as how much cleaner the air is now, yet a picture that has gotten a lot of attention shows plenty of smog.  There's nothing to really indicate the time or date of the pictures, and as much as people should have learned long ago that you shouldn't believe everything you see on the internet, people are quick to believe everything they see on the internet.

I can't speak for Los Angeles since I don't live there but the difference in air quality 200 miles north is about the same or nominally different for a rainy year.  The rain picking up into Spring probably is a bigger factor in clearing up the air quality.  Usually by this time of year the rain is gone and the snow pack is already melting.  There is more rain the forecast for this next week which I'm sure will keep the air particulate free for awhile longer.

Regarding Los Angeles, pollution control measures in cars in general have reduced the smog level significantly in the last couple decades.  I can't recall a time in recent memory on a sunny day I worked around L.A. where I couldn't see the San Gabriels. 

When I came through the Southland on my way back to Oregon in February 1999, the clarity of the air down there surprised me.  Back in the Seventies, one could drive from Santa Monica to Palm Springs and never escape the smog.

Rick

It definitely isn't the cleanest city in the country by a large margin but it is far removed from the choking smog that was common in pictures in the 1950s and 1960s.  The problem is with a lot of California's big cities is that all the pollution gets trapped by the mountains and has nowhere to go.  In the Central Valley that pollution isn't much smog but rather dust from all the farms kicking stuff up.  You can almost see the later of dust kick up at 7 AM and immediately start to obscure the Sierras.  Oddly I never found that effect happen much in Phoenix, even after a dust storm. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 04, 2020, 08:12:16 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on April 03, 2020, 07:43:16 PM
I think that a first step for many office jobs should be the option of working from home in place of sick leave.  I have had many days over the years in which I have gone to work or school sick with mild symptoms because that was what I felt expected to do or that I would get behind quickly.  If am mildly sick, and I am fine enough to wake up and get on my computer, then I do not see why I could not productively work from home instead of potentially sickening others in the office if possible.

I'm hopeful that this will be the case in my agency, as well.

To add to this...

Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 08:06:16 AM
Before the virus, there was no way I, or anyone within the organization, could have worked from home.  We needed to be in the office, communicating with people, getting to our files, etc.  We had laptops to get by for a day if the state was closed due to snow or other emergency, and I think there was some sort of plan to work in an offsite building if our building wasn't available.

Then the virus hit.  My section already had the tools available to work from home (our laptops).  We can remotely access our servers.  I have an extra monitor at home, and another computer, and could almost fully do my job without interruption. The only thing I didn't have was files in a filing cabinet, but I can get around that if needed.

When we'll finally be allowed to return to work, I hope that they allow us to work from home 1 or 2 days a week. Clearly we have shown it can be done...after years of being told it can't.

There have been many times that I've taken a sick day when I could have worked, but didn't feel like getting ready and driving 45 minutes to the office. We've been working from home for a couple of weeks, but were told yesterday that we're not to come to the office unless absolutely necessary, and then get done what we need to get done and go finish out the day at home. I had been going in two days a week and working at home three days.

I don't have VPN access to my desktop or the server, as I'm running an older version of the Mac OS on my laptop so as not to break my full version of Adobe CS2. I have a more modern Mac OS loaded on an external drive, but I know it will take forever to get my stuff restored from a Time Machine backup on to it, so I haven't tried.  As it is, I can't even load the Remote Desktop software from the Mac app store. I'm also hampered by not having two monitors and a slower network connection, so what I do is slower than normal. Last week, I had to get out a press release with graphics and it took me about 45 minutes to turn it around, as opposed to 20 minutes if I was at the office.

I'm in hopes that when this is all over and they do the post-mortem on our response, they will allow working at home anytime someone feels ill but not ill enough to go to the doctor, or during times of inclement weather. (Presently, the weather policy is that you have three months to make up the time if you miss due to weather.)

I have to admit, it's handy to be able to wake up at 7:50 to be ready for work by 8, and work in T-shirt and shorts or sweats. I'm saving wear and tear on my vehicle, not having to drive 60 miles a day (and working from home is handy, since I've had car trouble each of the last two Fridays and would have had to miss this past Monday and this coming Monday). But when we do go back to work, gas will probably shoot up to $3 a gallon so the gas savings I'm enjoying will get eaten up. But this means special trips out to go to the store, as I was used to making Walmart runs at lunch and stopping at other stores on my way home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 04, 2020, 09:00:37 PM
Sweats and a t-shirts are nice.  However, One would be expected to be somewhat professional in my line of work.  Both my employer and the client stressed this.  Plus its one less thing to do before getting outside of the house to break the cabin fever.

Side note: looks like a good use for bandannas has been found.  COVID masks. (No I'm not going to cut it up) ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brian556 on April 04, 2020, 11:15:01 PM
I wonder if this will make people re-think living in New York City, if it will become less desirable, and if some people will move out
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 11:28:53 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on April 04, 2020, 11:15:01 PM
I wonder if this will make people re-think living in New York City, if it will become less desirable, and if some people will move out

A terrorist attack didn't. I don't see this causing a mass exodus either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 11:28:53 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on April 04, 2020, 11:15:01 PM
I wonder if this will make people re-think living in New York City, if it will become less desirable, and if some people will move out

A terrorist attack didn't. I don't see this causing a mass exodus either.

The problem with leaving New York City is that the mode of life is so substantially different than almost the rest of the country that it would be a hard adaptation.  If I recall correctly doesn't NYC have the lowest rate of car ownership in the country?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 05, 2020, 12:29:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 11:28:53 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on April 04, 2020, 11:15:01 PM
I wonder if this will make people re-think living in New York City, if it will become less desirable, and if some people will move out

A terrorist attack didn't. I don't see this causing a mass exodus either.

The problem with leaving New York City is that the mode of life is so substantially different than almost the rest of the country that it would be a hard adaptation.  If I recall correctly doesn't NYC have the lowest rate of car ownership in the country?

New York City is the only place in America where if you own a car, you are in the minority.

And yes I don't see this causing any mass long-term exodus. Where a person lives is generally something about their life that they tend to have relatively low flexibility on. People don't leave places in droves unless there is significant reason why staying isn't a viable option.

I also don't see this causing all that huge of a rethink of planning policies around densification, transit-oriented-development, etc. since the underlying motives for these things will remain and will not be easily ignored. Any changes to better enable people to avoid spreading diseases to each other in urban environments will only be tweaks around the edges of how things are done.

Some areas where I do think we should be on the lookout for changes in how things are done to persist include:
- people with office jobs being able and permitted to work remotely may remain more prevalent than it was previously, because a lot of companies that previously didn't have the infrastructure to enable it in place now will, and a lot of people who were previously skeptical of it will have seen it can work. Along the same lines, business travel may see some amount of permanent reduction as companies realize that some trips people had to cancel because of this weren't really necessary expenses to begin with.
- there was already a budding trend in many places in the world to try to roll back globalization and take on a more isolationist foreign policy stance. This potentially fuels that fire. Medical supplies in particular will come to be seen in the US as vital for national security, and there may be efforts to shift supply chains such that they are produced domestically with domestically-sourced materials. Also, a lot of countries may find themselves suddenly a little bit more reluctant to do business with China. I seriously doubt, however, that this will lead to the downfall of the PRC government anytime soon, as much as many people would love to see that happen.
- One thing that will help prevent repeats is that the next time there are reports of some virus outbreak occurring somewhere, the world will collectively quickly overreact to it. Up until a month ago, most people didn't really take the threat of a major nasty virus outbreak in the developed world seriously. Now they will.
- Do expect that, as with 9/11, there will be some forms of privacy and/or individual freedom which will be lost permanently in the name of attempting to guard against a repeat event. And as with 9/11, some of these losses will be pure security theater.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 01:23:53 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 05, 2020, 12:29:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 11:28:53 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on April 04, 2020, 11:15:01 PM
I wonder if this will make people re-think living in New York City, if it will become less desirable, and if some people will move out

A terrorist attack didn't. I don't see this causing a mass exodus either.

The problem with leaving New York City is that the mode of life is so substantially different than almost the rest of the country that it would be a hard adaptation.  If I recall correctly doesn't NYC have the lowest rate of car ownership in the country?

New York City is the only place in America where if you own a car, you are in the minority.

And yes I don't see this causing any mass long-term exodus. Where a person lives is generally something about their life that they tend to have relatively low flexibility on. People don't leave places in droves unless there is significant reason why staying isn't a viable option.

I also don't see this causing all that huge of a rethink of planning policies around densification, transit-oriented-development, etc. since the underlying motives for these things will remain and will not be easily ignored. Any changes to better enable people to avoid spreading diseases to each other in urban environments will only be tweaks around the edges of how things are done.

Some areas where I do think we should be on the lookout for changes in how things are done to persist include:
- people with office jobs being able and permitted to work remotely may remain more prevalent than it was previously, because a lot of companies that previously didn't have the infrastructure to enable it in place now will, and a lot of people who were previously skeptical of it will have seen it can work. Along the same lines, business travel may see some amount of permanent reduction as companies realize that some trips people had to cancel because of this weren't really necessary expenses to begin with.
- there was already a budding trend in many places in the world to try to roll back globalization and take on a more isolationist foreign policy stance. This potentially fuels that fire. Medical supplies in particular will come to be seen in the US as vital for national security, and there may be efforts to shift supply chains such that they are produced domestically with domestically-sourced materials. Also, a lot of countries may find themselves suddenly a little bit more reluctant to do business with China. I seriously doubt, however, that this will lead to the downfall of the PRC government anytime soon, as much as many people would love to see that happen.
- One thing that will help prevent repeats is that the next time there are reports of some virus outbreak occurring somewhere, the world will collectively quickly overreact to it. Up until a month ago, most people didn't really take the threat of a major nasty virus outbreak in the developed world seriously. Now they will.
- Do expect that, as with 9/11, there will be some forms of privacy and/or individual freedom which will be lost permanently in the name of attempting to guard against a repeat event. And as with 9/11, some of these losses will be pure security theater.
A seconldary flare up due to packed subway and a second - and I wouldn't be surprised with the third -wave of lockdown can be a good argument for business tol move out of city
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 05, 2020, 11:26:50 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 05, 2020, 12:29:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 11:28:53 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on April 04, 2020, 11:15:01 PM
I wonder if this will make people re-think living in New York City, if it will become less desirable, and if some people will move out

A terrorist attack didn't. I don't see this causing a mass exodus either.

The problem with leaving New York City is that the mode of life is so substantially different than almost the rest of the country that it would be a hard adaptation.  If I recall correctly doesn't NYC have the lowest rate of car ownership in the country?

New York City is the only place in America where if you own a car, you are in the minority.

And yes I don't see this causing any mass long-term exodus. Where a person lives is generally something about their life that they tend to have relatively low flexibility on. People don't leave places in droves unless there is significant reason why staying isn't a viable option.

I also don't see this causing all that huge of a rethink of planning policies around densification, transit-oriented-development, etc. since the underlying motives for these things will remain and will not be easily ignored. Any changes to better enable people to avoid spreading diseases to each other in urban environments will only be tweaks around the edges of how things are done.

Some areas where I do think we should be on the lookout for changes in how things are done to persist include:
- people with office jobs being able and permitted to work remotely may remain more prevalent than it was previously, because a lot of companies that previously didn't have the infrastructure to enable it in place now will, and a lot of people who were previously skeptical of it will have seen it can work. Along the same lines, business travel may see some amount of permanent reduction as companies realize that some trips people had to cancel because of this weren't really necessary expenses to begin with.
- there was already a budding trend in many places in the world to try to roll back globalization and take on a more isolationist foreign policy stance. This potentially fuels that fire. Medical supplies in particular will come to be seen in the US as vital for national security, and there may be efforts to shift supply chains such that they are produced domestically with domestically-sourced materials. Also, a lot of countries may find themselves suddenly a little bit more reluctant to do business with China. I seriously doubt, however, that this will lead to the downfall of the PRC government anytime soon, as much as many people would love to see that happen.
- One thing that will help prevent repeats is that the next time there are reports of some virus outbreak occurring somewhere, the world will collectively quickly overreact to it. Up until a month ago, most people didn't really take the threat of a major nasty virus outbreak in the developed world seriously. Now they will.
- Do expect that, as with 9/11, there will be some forms of privacy and/or individual freedom which will be lost permanently in the name of attempting to guard against a repeat event. And as with 9/11, some of these losses will be pure security theater.
I could see temperature checks start to be implemented at major airports. Many large Asian airports started temperature checks in the aftermath of SARS. Also, contact tracing will start to be implemented more than it already is.

Tourism should start to recover sometime this summer, especially for destinations where people already mostly drive to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 11:54:50 AM
Airports in Mexico were doing checks back in February before things got all nutty here in the Americas.  The airport was the only place I heard anything about the Coronavirus during the trip aside from some beer jokes.  I would be curious to hear what flying domestically is like at the moment, I'd have to imagine that the FAA has mandated some sort of screening procedure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 05, 2020, 01:50:47 PM
Observations for the United States:

* Louisiana's spread seems to be primarily due to Tony Spell, the pastor who refused to close his church.
* Nebraska is the only state where the doubling time is decreasing, although it might also be happening with South Dakota and Iowa.
* Minnesota is doing really well.
* Low cases relative to population: Quad Cities, northwest AR, Amarillo (although increasing very quickly), Rapid City, El Paso (no data for Ciudad Juárez), Rio Grande valley, Twin Cities
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 02:05:22 PM
Watched a video about the Great Plague of London which occurred in 1665-1666.  Kind of a mini localized Black Death with some "interesting"  methods of containment.  Essentially if someone got sick your house you were written off as already dead:

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 02:15:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 05, 2020, 01:50:47 PM
Observations for the United States:

* Louisiana's spread seems to be primarily due to Tony Spell, the pastor who refused to close his church.
* Nebraska is the only state where the doubling time is decreasing, although it might also be happening with South Dakota and Iowa.
* Minnesota is doing really well.
* Low cases relative to population: Quad Cities, northwest AR, Amarillo (although increasing very quickly), Rapid City, El Paso (no data for Ciudad Juárez), Rio Grande valley, Twin Cities

Lots of rural areas in the Central States.  Aside from the big cities in the Desert States there are similarly low numbers there as well.  I think Fresno County just passed 200 cases which I'm sure to some is a surprisingly low number considering Fresno has just over 500,000 residents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on April 05, 2020, 02:28:14 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 05, 2020, 01:50:47 PM
Observations for the United States:

* Louisiana's spread seems to be primarily due to Tony Spell, the pastor who refused to close his church.
* Nebraska is the only state where the doubling time is decreasing, although it might also be happening with South Dakota and Iowa.
* Minnesota is doing really well.
* Low cases relative to population: Quad Cities, northwest AR, Amarillo (although increasing very quickly), Rapid City, El Paso (no data for Ciudad Juárez), Rio Grande valley, Twin Cities

I'd say Texas as a whole is doing well in the Covid-19 per capita right now, especially considering that all other states with high populations have over 10,000 cases, while Texas is sitting at 6500 or so. For instance, Houston has about 1500 cases, but Chicago has 7500 or so.

Of course, that may change, but still, I'm not going to be afraid of it, however, everyone needs to respect what it can do and how it can spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 02:35:21 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 05, 2020, 02:28:14 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 05, 2020, 01:50:47 PM
Observations for the United States:

* Louisiana's spread seems to be primarily due to Tony Spell, the pastor who refused to close his church.
* Nebraska is the only state where the doubling time is decreasing, although it might also be happening with South Dakota and Iowa.
* Minnesota is doing really well.
* Low cases relative to population: Quad Cities, northwest AR, Amarillo (although increasing very quickly), Rapid City, El Paso (no data for Ciudad Juárez), Rio Grande valley, Twin Cities

I'd say Texas as a whole is doing well in the Covid-19 per capita right now, especially considering that all other states with high populations have over 10,000 cases, while Texas is sitting at 6500 or so. For instance, Houston has about 1500 cases, but Chicago has 7500 or so.

Of course, that may change, but still, I'm not going to be afraid of it, however, everyone needs to respect what it can do and how it can spread.

There really isn't much of a point of being afraid IMO...concerned yes.  As long as someone is taking rational measures to minimize their exposure than there really isn't much else anyone can do to mitigate if they'll get sick or not.  There is a pretty good chance by now a significant chunk of the population has been exposed and exhibited mild to no symptoms.  Even if you caught the virus you wouldn't likely know unless you became ill enough you got sick enough to need some actual medical intervention just to get tested.  Even then the help you get in the best cases is essentially is a stay in an ICU ward for a couple weeks or fully on actual quarantine at home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 07:26:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 11:54:50 AM
Airports in Mexico were doing checks back in February before things got all nutty here in the Americas.  The airport was the only place I heard anything about the Coronavirus during the trip aside from some beer jokes.  I would be curious to hear what flying domestically is like at the moment, I'd have to imagine that the FAA has mandated some sort of screening procedure.
Just asked a friend who travels for a living, even now.
No fever checks for domestic travel, only when arriving from a foreign destination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 07:30:07 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 07:26:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 11:54:50 AM
Airports in Mexico were doing checks back in February before things got all nutty here in the Americas.  The airport was the only place I heard anything about the Coronavirus during the trip aside from some beer jokes.  I would be curious to hear what flying domestically is like at the moment, I'd have to imagine that the FAA has mandated some sort of screening procedure.
Just asked a friend who travels for a living, even now.
No fever checks for domestic travel, only when arriving from a foreign destination.

Geeze, I would have thought they would at least ask the question.  I get asked everyday at work and have been for weeks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 05, 2020, 08:16:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 07:26:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 11:54:50 AM
Airports in Mexico were doing checks back in February before things got all nutty here in the Americas.  The airport was the only place I heard anything about the Coronavirus during the trip aside from some beer jokes.  I would be curious to hear what flying domestically is like at the moment, I'd have to imagine that the FAA has mandated some sort of screening procedure.
Just asked a friend who travels for a living, even now.
No fever checks for domestic travel, only when arriving from a foreign destination.

Is Louisiana a foreign destination? ;)
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Travel-from-Louisiana-further-tightened-by-new-15180553.php
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 08:31:41 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 05, 2020, 08:16:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 07:26:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 11:54:50 AM
Airports in Mexico were doing checks back in February before things got all nutty here in the Americas.  The airport was the only place I heard anything about the Coronavirus during the trip aside from some beer jokes.  I would be curious to hear what flying domestically is like at the moment, I'd have to imagine that the FAA has mandated some sort of screening procedure.
Just asked a friend who travels for a living, even now.
No fever checks for domestic travel, only when arriving from a foreign destination.

Is Louisiana a foreign destination? ;)
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Travel-from-Louisiana-further-tightened-by-new-15180553.php
That was about airport checks, and while I don't know his travel details - probably NE airports.
This is more about lack of federal policy, even in situation where federal authority is already exists and adding a step is unlikely to be disputed
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 05, 2020, 09:49:53 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 05, 2020, 12:29:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 04, 2020, 11:31:42 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 04, 2020, 11:28:53 PM
Quote from: Brian556 on April 04, 2020, 11:15:01 PM
I wonder if this will make people re-think living in New York City, if it will become less desirable, and if some people will move out

A terrorist attack didn't. I don't see this causing a mass exodus either.

The problem with leaving New York City is that the mode of life is so substantially different than almost the rest of the country that it would be a hard adaptation.  If I recall correctly doesn't NYC have the lowest rate of car ownership in the country?

New York City is the only place in America where if you own a car, you are in the minority.

And yes I don't see this causing any mass long-term exodus. Where a person lives is generally something about their life that they tend to have relatively low flexibility on. People don't leave places in droves unless there is significant reason why staying isn't a viable option.

I also don't see this causing all that huge of a rethink of planning policies around densification, transit-oriented-development, etc. since the underlying motives for these things will remain and will not be easily ignored. Any changes to better enable people to avoid spreading diseases to each other in urban environments will only be tweaks around the edges of how things are done.

Some areas where I do think we should be on the lookout for changes in how things are done to persist include:
- people with office jobs being able and permitted to work remotely may remain more prevalent than it was previously, because a lot of companies that previously didn't have the infrastructure to enable it in place now will, and a lot of people who were previously skeptical of it will have seen it can work. Along the same lines, business travel may see some amount of permanent reduction as companies realize that some trips people had to cancel because of this weren't really necessary expenses to begin with.
- there was already a budding trend in many places in the world to try to roll back globalization and take on a more isolationist foreign policy stance. This potentially fuels that fire. Medical supplies in particular will come to be seen in the US as vital for national security, and there may be efforts to shift supply chains such that they are produced domestically with domestically-sourced materials. Also, a lot of countries may find themselves suddenly a little bit more reluctant to do business with China. I seriously doubt, however, that this will lead to the downfall of the PRC government anytime soon, as much as many people would love to see that happen.
- One thing that will help prevent repeats is that the next time there are reports of some virus outbreak occurring somewhere, the world will collectively quickly overreact to it. Up until a month ago, most people didn't really take the threat of a major nasty virus outbreak in the developed world seriously. Now they will.
- Do expect that, as with 9/11, there will be some forms of privacy and/or individual freedom which will be lost permanently in the name of attempting to guard against a repeat event. And as with 9/11, some of these losses will be pure security theater.
Telecommuting will likely be a big cause a change in population distribution.  Right now, everyone is moving to large cities, whether they can afford to or not, because that's where the jobs are, and the jobs are there because companies like concentrating a ton of workers from their industry in one place to maximize the pool of people to hire from.  If more people start working from home, the need to do that is reduced.  As such, I would think that people who moved to the area because they like being in a large metro area would stay, but I could see the people who would prefer somewhere smaller/more affordable to move out if given the option to work from home.

This would likely have a side effect of making housing more affordable everywhere it currently isn't, since cities would no longer be able to rely on their employer base to attract residents, and property owners couldn't just raise rents as high as they want since people could just leave without having to look for a new job in a place with fewer employers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.

Almost all of them I know aren't fans of enforcing quarantine rules and the prospect of potentially having. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 10:58:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.

Almost all of them I know aren't fans of enforcing quarantine rules and the prospect of potentially having.
A big problem of all these restrictions. Not very clear legal standing; cops unwilling to interact with people - and potentially get infected, or infecting others; and overall question of what is really ok and what is not.
From my perspective, these orders are more an appeal to common sense and social responsibility, but too often it falls on deaf ears.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 05, 2020, 11:08:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 10:58:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.

Almost all of them I know aren't fans of enforcing quarantine rules and the prospect of potentially having.
A big problem of all these restrictions. Not very clear legal standing; cops unwilling to interact with people - and potentially get infected, or infecting others; and overall question of what is really ok and what is not.
From my perspective, these orders are more an appeal to common sense and social responsibility, but too often it falls on deaf ears.

Agreed. If you see a cop out there on a roadway stopping an out-of-stater, they're probably not doing it voluntary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 05, 2020, 11:16:30 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 05, 2020, 08:16:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 07:26:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 11:54:50 AM
Airports in Mexico were doing checks back in February before things got all nutty here in the Americas.  The airport was the only place I heard anything about the Coronavirus during the trip aside from some beer jokes.  I would be curious to hear what flying domestically is like at the moment, I'd have to imagine that the FAA has mandated some sort of screening procedure.
Just asked a friend who travels for a living, even now.
No fever checks for domestic travel, only when arriving from a foreign destination.

Is Louisiana a foreign destination? ;)
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Travel-from-Louisiana-further-tightened-by-new-15180553.php

I point this out for other reasons normally, but it holds true here as well. Our states are generally larger than most other countries. Comparing to Europe, the single state of Texas would be larger than nearly every country on that continent. Even Louisiana is larger than many of Europe's countries.

So, is Lousiana a foreign destination? By the US's standards, no. But if we were to look at is from a European viewpoint, then yes.  This may be one of the reasons why some  European countries have contained the spread better than others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 11:19:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 10:58:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.

Almost all of them I know aren't fans of enforcing quarantine rules and the prospect of potentially having.
A big problem of all these restrictions. Not very clear legal standing; cops unwilling to interact with people - and potentially get infected, or infecting others; and overall question of what is really ok and what is not.
From my perspective, these orders are more an appeal to common sense and social responsibility, but too often it falls on deaf ears.
My approach is always to let them figure it out.  You tell me what to do and I'll do it, but I don't have to talk to you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 12:03:18 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 11:19:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 10:58:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.

Almost all of them I know aren't fans of enforcing quarantine rules and the prospect of potentially having.
A big problem of all these restrictions. Not very clear legal standing; cops unwilling to interact with people - and potentially get infected, or infecting others; and overall question of what is really ok and what is not.
From my perspective, these orders are more an appeal to common sense and social responsibility, but too often it falls on deaf ears.
My approach is always to let them figure it out.  You tell me what to do and I'll do it, but I don't have to talk to you.

That approach never worked for anyone at a Border Patrol Checkpoint.  Lots of stupid people got defensive in Arizona and New Mexico who otherwise would have been fine had they just said they were a U.S. Citizen.  Beyond identifying yourself you have more of a reasonable stance of having nothing to say.  I would imagine a lot of people would end up being turned around at checkpoints in places like Florida if they refused to answer questions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 06, 2020, 12:47:32 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 12:03:18 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 11:19:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 10:58:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.

Almost all of them I know aren't fans of enforcing quarantine rules and the prospect of potentially having.
A big problem of all these restrictions. Not very clear legal standing; cops unwilling to interact with people - and potentially get infected, or infecting others; and overall question of what is really ok and what is not.
From my perspective, these orders are more an appeal to common sense and social responsibility, but too often it falls on deaf ears.
My approach is always to let them figure it out.  You tell me what to do and I'll do it, but I don't have to talk to you.

That approach never worked for anyone at a Border Patrol Checkpoint.  Lots of stupid people got defensive in Arizona and New Mexico who otherwise would have been fine had they just said they were a U.S. Citizen.  Beyond identifying yourself you have more of a reasonable stance of having nothing to say.  I would imagine a lot of people would end up being turned around at checkpoints in places like Florida if they refused to answer questions.
Even at an inland checkpoint though you can refuse to answer questions.  They might detain you longer but you cannot be arrested for not answering.

I don't think it's constitutional to deny someone entry to a state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 12:51:26 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 06, 2020, 12:47:32 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 12:03:18 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 11:19:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 05, 2020, 10:58:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 05, 2020, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 05, 2020, 09:46:27 PM
Friendly reminder: don't ever talk to cops.

Almost all of them I know aren't fans of enforcing quarantine rules and the prospect of potentially having.
A big problem of all these restrictions. Not very clear legal standing; cops unwilling to interact with people - and potentially get infected, or infecting others; and overall question of what is really ok and what is not.
From my perspective, these orders are more an appeal to common sense and social responsibility, but too often it falls on deaf ears.
My approach is always to let them figure it out.  You tell me what to do and I'll do it, but I don't have to talk to you.

That approach never worked for anyone at a Border Patrol Checkpoint.  Lots of stupid people got defensive in Arizona and New Mexico who otherwise would have been fine had they just said they were a U.S. Citizen.  Beyond identifying yourself you have more of a reasonable stance of having nothing to say.  I would imagine a lot of people would end up being turned around at checkpoints in places like Florida if they refused to answer questions.
Even at an inland checkpoint though you can refuse to answer questions.  They might detain you longer but you cannot be arrested for not answering.

I don't think it's constitutional to deny someone entry to a state.

If I recall correctly I don't think there has been anything where "technically"  there isn't a refusal of entry.  In Florida as an example some out of staters had to self quarantine for 14 days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 03:47:49 AM
Quote from: vdeane on April 05, 2020, 09:49:53 PM
Telecommuting will likely be a big cause a change in population distribution.  Right now, everyone is moving to large cities, whether they can afford to or not, because that's where the jobs are, and the jobs are there because companies like concentrating a ton of workers from their industry in one place to maximize the pool of people to hire from.  If more people start working from home, the need to do that is reduced.  As such, I would think that people who moved to the area because they like being in a large metro area would stay, but I could see the people who would prefer somewhere smaller/more affordable to move out if given the option to work from home.

This would likely have a side effect of making housing more affordable everywhere it currently isn't, since cities would no longer be able to rely on their employer base to attract residents, and property owners couldn't just raise rents as high as they want since people could just leave without having to look for a new job in a place with fewer employers.

It would also breathe new life into small towns that have been withering on the vine due to lack of jobs, like West Virginia coal country. All you need is a reliable Internet connection...which may be something a lot of those places lack. Hope they can get ahead of the curve on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 06, 2020, 07:49:34 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 03:47:49 AM
Quote from: vdeane on April 05, 2020, 09:49:53 PM
Telecommuting will likely be a big cause a change in population distribution.  Right now, everyone is moving to large cities, whether they can afford to or not, because that's where the jobs are, and the jobs are there because companies like concentrating a ton of workers from their industry in one place to maximize the pool of people to hire from.  If more people start working from home, the need to do that is reduced.  As such, I would think that people who moved to the area because they like being in a large metro area would stay, but I could see the people who would prefer somewhere smaller/more affordable to move out if given the option to work from home.

This would likely have a side effect of making housing more affordable everywhere it currently isn't, since cities would no longer be able to rely on their employer base to attract residents, and property owners couldn't just raise rents as high as they want since people could just leave without having to look for a new job in a place with fewer employers.

It would also breathe new life into small towns that have been withering on the vine due to lack of jobs, like West Virginia coal country. All you need is a reliable Internet connection...which may be something a lot of those places lack. Hope they can get ahead of the curve on that.

The reliable high-speed Internet connection is the big issue in some rural areas.

The notion of relocating to a state with no state income tax has sometimes crossed my mind since I telecommute and my boss recently noted that we could pretty much live anywhere in the USA we want (although for practical reasons, the Eastern time zone is the most logical to be on the same time as the actual office). I don't think I'll be moving any time soon, though. Among other reasons, it would feel kind of like abandoning my mom in Northern Virginia less than a year after we lost my dad. It just wouldn't feel right to leave her here alone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on April 06, 2020, 08:37:29 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)

"Tiger"?  Technically it was a tigress.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 06, 2020, 10:03:47 AM
Quote from: ixnay on April 06, 2020, 08:37:29 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)

"Tiger"?  Technically it was a tigress.

ixnay

Tiger is a unisex word
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on April 06, 2020, 10:30:43 AM
Quote from: ixnay on April 06, 2020, 08:37:29 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)

"Tiger"?  Technically it was a tigress.

ixnay

https://wikidiff.com/tiger/tigress

That should settle the issue...

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 10:39:34 AM
Now I'll never be able to convince my wife that we need a pet tiger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)

Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 10:59:07 AM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)

Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

It's the only logical explanation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on April 06, 2020, 11:45:02 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 06, 2020, 07:49:34 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 03:47:49 AM
Quote from: vdeane on April 05, 2020, 09:49:53 PM
Telecommuting will likely be a big cause a change in population distribution.  Right now, everyone is moving to large cities, whether they can afford to or not, because that's where the jobs are, and the jobs are there because companies like concentrating a ton of workers from their industry in one place to maximize the pool of people to hire from.  If more people start working from home, the need to do that is reduced.  As such, I would think that people who moved to the area because they like being in a large metro area would stay, but I could see the people who would prefer somewhere smaller/more affordable to move out if given the option to work from home.

This would likely have a side effect of making housing more affordable everywhere it currently isn't, since cities would no longer be able to rely on their employer base to attract residents, and property owners couldn't just raise rents as high as they want since people could just leave without having to look for a new job in a place with fewer employers.

It would also breathe new life into small towns that have been withering on the vine due to lack of jobs, like West Virginia coal country. All you need is a reliable Internet connection...which may be something a lot of those places lack. Hope they can get ahead of the curve on that.

The reliable high-speed Internet connection is the big issue in some rural areas.

The notion of relocating to a state with no state income tax has sometimes crossed my mind since I telecommute and my boss recently noted that we could pretty much live anywhere in the USA we want (although for practical reasons, the Eastern time zone is the most logical to be on the same time as the actual office). I don't think I'll be moving any time soon, though. Among other reasons, it would feel kind of like abandoning my mom in Northern Virginia less than a year after we lost my dad. It just wouldn't feel right to leave her here alone.

It's going to be a very different conversation in a couple of years as the Internet is just like electricity was about a 100 years ago.  Rural areas left behind because of a lack of profitability due to longer stretches of wire between customers.  The electric cooperatives were born of that era and now they are starting to string fiber on the poles they already own, at least in Arkansas.  I live in the woods west of Fayetteville, and have 1000Mbit up and down Internet, whereas people who live in the cities of Northwest Arkansas that had better Internet access and "competition" now have inferior options as our electric cooperative implemented fiber Internet in conjunction with their smart meter and pole replacement project.  Rural areas are about to be on an equal or even better footing than urban areas before too long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 06, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

No, New York just knows how to ramp up testing quickly, and they have done so to an extent that they have extra tests available for zoo animals. That's an other state problem, not a NY problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 06, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

No, New York just knows how to ramp up testing quickly, and they have done so to an extent that they have extra tests available for zoo animals. That's an other state problem, not a NY problem.

So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 04:58:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 06, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

No, New York just knows how to ramp up testing quickly, and they have done so to an extent that they have extra tests available for zoo animals. That's an other state problem, not a NY problem.

So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?
there are 8 sick tigers, and lack of tests allowed only one to be tested.

UPD:
Nadia, a 4-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo, has tested positive for COVID-19. She, her sister Azul, two Amur tigers, and three African lions had developed a dry cough and all are expected to recover.

https://newsroom.wcs.org/News-Releases/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/14010/A-Tiger-at-Bronx-Zoo-Tests-Positive-for-COVID-19-The-Tiger-and-the-Zoos-Other-Cats-Are-Doing-Well-at-This-Time.aspx
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on April 06, 2020, 05:10:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 06, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

No, New York just knows how to ramp up testing quickly, and they have done so to an extent that they have extra tests available for zoo animals. That's an other state problem, not a NY problem.

So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?

The tiger can stay with Joe Exotic, he'll be in quarantine for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 06, 2020, 05:32:01 PM
UK PM Boris Johnson now in Intensive Care. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 05:37:02 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 06, 2020, 05:10:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 06, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

No, New York just knows how to ramp up testing quickly, and they have done so to an extent that they have extra tests available for zoo animals. That's an other state problem, not a NY problem.

So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?

The tiger can stay with Joe Exotic, he'll be in quarantine for a while.

My world is a little darker for even knowing who that is.  Normally I would be out and active enough that TV water cooler talk wouldn't get to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: briantroutman on April 06, 2020, 07:24:32 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 03:47:49 AM
Quote from: vdeane on April 05, 2020, 09:49:53 PM
Right now, everyone is moving to large cities, whether they can afford to or not, because that's where the jobs are, and the jobs are there because companies like concentrating a ton of workers from their industry in one place to maximize the pool of people to hire from...

It would also breathe new life into small towns that have been withering on the vine due to lack of jobs, like West Virginia coal country. All you need is a reliable Internet connection...

You would think so, but everything I've read about the rise of telework over the past 10+ years (of which I am a part) indicates that the opposite has happened–more or less.

I can essentially work from anywhere, and I could easily afford twice as much housing for half of what I'm currently paying if I moved somewhere like Akron or Wheeling. But that's not what I want, so the savings wouldn't be worthwhile to me. Likewise, I work with other people who already telework from Manhattan or the Bay Area or Seattle–not because they have to, but because that's where they prefer to live.

When people work from home in solitude all day, that heightens their desire to get out of the house, and be with people at neighborhood restaurants, bars, entertainment venues, etc. Therefore, they prefer to live in vibrant neighborhoods where those amenities are immediately adjacent. And where are those vibrant neighborhoods? In cities that are already flush with jobs and high wage earners.

The one exception to this has been "poverty with a view"  -type places–cities and towns at beaches, mountain retreats, etc.–where people might otherwise want to live for recreational opportunities or scenic value but decent-paying jobs are hard to find locally. I've encountered a number of such people in Florida, for instance, where my impression is that the local job markets frequently lag their counterparts in other states per-capita because of the number of retirees and the state's reliance on the tourism industry.

I'm sure there are some teleworkers who have relocated to the lowest cost place they could find just to pocket the savings, but everything I've read and observed suggests that they are in a small minority.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 07:24:47 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 04:58:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 06, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

No, New York just knows how to ramp up testing quickly, and they have done so to an extent that they have extra tests available for zoo animals. That's an other state problem, not a NY problem.

So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?
there are 8 sick tigers, and lack of tests allowed only one to be tested.

WaPo is reporting that a veterinary test kit and lab were used, neither of which could be used for human testing, so no human was deprived of a test because of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 07:34:37 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 07:24:47 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 04:58:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 06, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Quote from: US 89 on April 06, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 06, 2020, 06:29:35 AM
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html (https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tiger-nycs-bronx-zoo-tests-205150772.html)
Now I know why we're having a nationwide test shortage. New York is stealing them all to test zoo animals.

No, New York just knows how to ramp up testing quickly, and they have done so to an extent that they have extra tests available for zoo animals. That's an other state problem, not a NY problem.

So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?
there are 8 sick tigers, and lack of tests allowed only one to be tested.

WaPo is reporting that a veterinary test kit and lab were used, neither of which could be used for human testing, so no human was deprived of a test because of this.
I don't believe there is a specific veterinary test. Most likely same primers as the  virus is the same anyway.
Otherwise, an ab initio sequencing could be used.
Both are 100% agnostic to species being tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 09:13:25 PM
Same process and chemicals, but human and veterinary equipment is very different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 06, 2020, 09:23:24 PM
Two companies have announced car insurance premium rebates due to the drastic change in risk profiles.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/business/allstate-payments-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/business/allstate-payments-coronavirus/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 09:56:56 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 09:13:25 PM
Same process and chemicals, but human and veterinary equipment is very different.
Sample collection may be a bit different, dna-free swab is the same,  PCR and sequencing machines are totally identical.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 07, 2020, 04:36:38 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 09:56:56 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 09:13:25 PM
Same process and chemicals, but human and veterinary equipment is very different.
Sample collection may be a bit different, dna-free swab is the same,  PCR and sequencing machines are totally identical.

Quote from: Meagan Flynn, The Washington Post
The Bronx Zoo also pointed out coronavirus tests for people and animals are different, with the latter being performed at a veterinary lab, so no human in need of a test lost one to the tiger.

"You cannot send human samples to the veterinary laboratory, and you cannot send animal tests to the human laboratories, so there is no competition for testing between these very different situations,"  Paul Calle, the Bronx Zoo's chief veterinarian, said in a statement.

I would expect you'd need a much longer swab to reach the part of a tiger's anatomy that needs to be swabbed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GreenLanternCorps on April 07, 2020, 09:05:53 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 09:56:56 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 09:13:25 PM
Same process and chemicals, but human and veterinary equipment is very different.
Sample collection may be a bit different, dna-free swab is the same,  PCR and sequencing machines are totally identical.
Yes, the human is not likely to eat you if you collect it wrong...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 07, 2020, 09:51:54 AM
Quote from: GreenLanternCorps on April 07, 2020, 09:05:53 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 09:56:56 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 09:13:25 PM
Same process and chemicals, but human and veterinary equipment is very different.
Sample collection may be a bit different, dna-free swab is the same,  PCR and sequencing machines are totally identical.
Yes, the human is not likely to eat you if you collect it wrong...
I guess this is exactly why only one animal was tested. Tearing protective gear and infecting test taker is another hazard. I assume animal had to be tranquilized.
I don't believe one test is that big of a deal when hundreds thousands are being done, and scientific value of this one can be huge, including human lives saved down the road due to awareness of possible animal infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on April 07, 2020, 10:02:02 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 05:37:02 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 06, 2020, 05:10:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?

The tiger can stay with Joe Exotic, he'll be in quarantine for a while.

My world is a little darker for even knowing who that is.  Normally I would be out and active enough that TV water cooler talk wouldn't get to me.

:-D That's what happens when my TV habits suddenly increase about 600% (from 5-15 minutes to 1-2 hours).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 07, 2020, 10:02:45 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 07, 2020, 04:36:38 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 06, 2020, 09:56:56 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 06, 2020, 09:13:25 PM
Same process and chemicals, but human and veterinary equipment is very different.
Sample collection may be a bit different, dna-free swab is the same,  PCR and sequencing machines are totally identical.

Quote from: Meagan Flynn, The Washington Post
The Bronx Zoo also pointed out coronavirus tests for people and animals are different, with the latter being performed at a veterinary lab, so no human in need of a test lost one to the tiger.

"You cannot send human samples to the veterinary laboratory, and you cannot send animal tests to the human laboratories, so there is no competition for testing between these very different situations,"  Paul Calle, the Bronx Zoo's chief veterinarian, said in a statement.

I would expect you'd need a much longer swab to reach the part of a tiger's anatomy that needs to be swabbed.
I actually thought about it, and I even asked my cat to help with those measurements. He is much smaller than me.
Overall, I assume human brain makes human head much bigger compared to even big animals.
Vets probably have animal grade swabs and procedures, which are not depleted as there is no animal epidemic (not yet, at least).
While physical differences may be non-existent, certification and fda red tapedont allow for test mixing. One thing this may mean is that instead of consuming one dose of primers, a bigger package had to be relabeled and shipped as animal grade stuff to animal grade lab.

...I'm from the government and I'm here to help!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 07, 2020, 01:01:42 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 07, 2020, 10:02:02 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 05:37:02 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 06, 2020, 05:10:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 06, 2020, 04:46:59 PM
So does the Tiger get stuck in quarantine for 14 days and have to practice social distancing?  What about a mask if social distancing can't be avoided?

The tiger can stay with Joe Exotic, he'll be in quarantine for a while.

My world is a little darker for even knowing who that is.  Normally I would be out and active enough that TV water cooler talk wouldn't get to me.

:-D That's what happens when my TV habits suddenly increase about 600% (from 5-15 minutes to 1-2 hours).

My wife tried to get me to watch, I refused and went to read in the garage.  I was hedging my bet that guy was from Florida but I guess he was from Oklahoma. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 07, 2020, 03:07:53 PM
I don't have Netflix, so I only know who Joe Exotic is -- and to a greater extent, Carole Baskin -- from all the memes that float across my Facebook feed.

So, why does everyone hate Carole Baskin?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 07, 2020, 10:28:50 PM
Heard that New York had it's cases slow down? Is that true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 07, 2020, 11:08:10 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 07, 2020, 10:28:50 PM
Heard that New York had it's cases slow down? Is that true?
Cuomo said so, but it only slowed down for a day or two.

Even then, NY has had over 5,000 deaths, or enough corpses to fill a four acre cemetery (four acres = Statue of Liberty, its platform and security entry, plus some surrounding grounds).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 07, 2020, 11:19:19 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 07, 2020, 10:28:50 PM
Heard that New York had it's cases slow down? Is that true?

It's slowed down in New York and gone way up in California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 07, 2020, 11:47:54 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 07, 2020, 11:08:10 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 07, 2020, 10:28:50 PM
Heard that New York had it's cases slow down? Is that true?
Cuomo said so, but it only slowed down for a day or two.

It's important to keep in mind that cases are going to slow down first, before deaths, since a death typically lags about 3-4 weeks behind the infection.


Quote from: Rothman on April 07, 2020, 11:08:10 PM
Even then, NY has had over 5,000 deaths, or enough corpses to fill a four acre cemetery (four acres = Statue of Liberty, its platform and security entry, plus some surrounding grounds).

As a more relevant point of comparison, the Holy Sepulchre and Riverside Cemeteries here in Rochester combine for 455 acres.
Also, note that natural population turnover results in around 200,000 deaths yearly in New York; the current death toll accounts for about 2% of that. 5,000 deaths is certainly 5,000 too many, but everyone already knows it's a bad situation, and it's important to keep positive and look at the data in the right context.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 10:24:39 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 07, 2020, 11:08:10 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 07, 2020, 10:28:50 PM
Heard that New York had it's cases slow down? Is that true?
Cuomo said so, but it only slowed down for a day or two.

Even then, NY has had over 5,000 deaths, or enough corpses to fill a four acre cemetery (four acres = Statue of Liberty, its platform and security entry, plus some surrounding grounds).
Less than that under contingency plan:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/nycs-grim-contingency-coronavirus-deaths-rise-temporary-mass/story?id=70008187
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 08, 2020, 01:41:52 PM
A lawsuit has been filed against Dare County in NC, claiming a violation of the Privileges & Immunities Clause.

https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/2020/04/07/dare-county-sued-for-barring-non-resident-property-owners/ (https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/2020/04/07/dare-county-sued-for-barring-non-resident-property-owners/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 08, 2020, 03:04:57 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 07, 2020, 11:47:54 PMAlso, note that natural population turnover results in around 200,000 deaths yearly in New York; the current death toll accounts for about 2% of that. 5,000 deaths is certainly 5,000 too many, but everyone already knows it's a bad situation, and it's important to keep positive and look at the data in the right context.

200,000 dead in NYS annually is about 700 deaths per day.  Coronavirus deaths have been over that threshold (representing 100% overload) for a couple of days now.  Since the deaths have been concentrated in NYC, the localized overload is higher and has been for longer, which is one reason temporary mass graves (as discussed in Kalvado's link above) have entered the conversation.

The mass graves that were dug in Philadelphia in 1918 were also supposed to be temporary--the bodies were tagged so they could be identified when they were exhumed.  Possibly those graves were indeed emptied out for reburial, but not long ago PennDOT had to deal with an unmarked 1918 mass grave in Schuylkill County that was exposed (https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/schuylkill-county/mass-grave-discovered-by-construction-worker/523-ed9aec83-243a-4a7b-850e-4764bf33bdaa) during the course of construction on SR 61.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 03:21:29 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 08, 2020, 03:04:57 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 07, 2020, 11:47:54 PMAlso, note that natural population turnover results in around 200,000 deaths yearly in New York; the current death toll accounts for about 2% of that. 5,000 deaths is certainly 5,000 too many, but everyone already knows it's a bad situation, and it's important to keep positive and look at the data in the right context.

200,000 dead in NYS annually is about 700 deaths per day.  Coronavirus deaths have been over that threshold (representing 100% overload) for a couple of days now.  Since the deaths have been concentrated in NYC, the localized overload is higher and has been for longer, which is one reason temporary mass graves (as discussed in Kalvado's link above) have entered the conversation.

The mass graves that were dug in Philadelphia in 1918 were also supposed to be temporary--the bodies were tagged so they could be identified when they were exhumed.  Possibly those graves were indeed emptied out for reburial, but not long ago PennDOT had to deal with an unmarked 1918 mass grave in Schuylkill County that was exposed (https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/schuylkill-county/mass-grave-discovered-by-construction-worker/523-ed9aec83-243a-4a7b-850e-4764bf33bdaa) during the course of construction on SR 61.
Right now NYS reports something like 140k cases - 0.7% of the population. With aggressive testing but overladed system - maybe 2-3% of the population were infected by now, and everything is out of wack. Fun to be in command of future planning, I suppose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 08, 2020, 03:27:49 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 08, 2020, 03:04:57 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 07, 2020, 11:47:54 PMAlso, note that natural population turnover results in around 200,000 deaths yearly in New York; the current death toll accounts for about 2% of that. 5,000 deaths is certainly 5,000 too many, but everyone already knows it's a bad situation, and it's important to keep positive and look at the data in the right context.

200,000 dead in NYS annually is about 700 deaths per day.  Coronavirus deaths have been over that threshold (representing 100% overload) for a couple of days now.  Since the deaths have been concentrated in NYC, the localized overload is higher and has been for longer, which is one reason temporary mass graves (as discussed in Kalvado's link above) have entered the conversation.

The mass graves that were dug in Philadelphia in 1918 were also supposed to be temporary--the bodies were tagged so they could be identified when they were exhumed.  Possibly those graves were indeed emptied out for reburial, but not long ago PennDOT had to deal with an unmarked 1918 mass grave in Schuylkill County that was exposed (https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/schuylkill-county/mass-grave-discovered-by-construction-worker/523-ed9aec83-243a-4a7b-850e-4764bf33bdaa) during the course of construction on SR 61.

Maybe that's why they don't want to dig up ole PA 61 in Centrailia, that road was ghostly enough. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.
Thing is, social distancing actually works. Epidemics flare out is arrested - even  NY is reporting drop in daily cases.
Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 08, 2020, 07:15:58 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 08, 2020, 01:41:52 PM
A lawsuit has been filed against Dare County in NC, claiming a violation of the Privileges & Immunities Clause.

https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/2020/04/07/dare-county-sued-for-barring-non-resident-property-owners/ (https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/2020/04/07/dare-county-sued-for-barring-non-resident-property-owners/)

Meanwhile in VA, a man from Russell County has filed a lawsuit claiming that his religious freedom is being violated by the governor's executive order...

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/man-files-lawsuit-claiming-govs-stay-at-home-order-interferes-with-right-to-go-to-church (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/man-files-lawsuit-claiming-govs-stay-at-home-order-interferes-with-right-to-go-to-church)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 08, 2020, 07:27:44 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 08, 2020, 07:15:58 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 08, 2020, 01:41:52 PM
A lawsuit has been filed against Dare County in NC, claiming a violation of the Privileges & Immunities Clause.

https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/2020/04/07/dare-county-sued-for-barring-non-resident-property-owners/ (https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/2020/04/07/dare-county-sued-for-barring-non-resident-property-owners/)

Meanwhile in VA, a man from Russell County has filed a lawsuit claiming that his religious freedom is being violated by the governor's executive order...

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/man-files-lawsuit-claiming-govs-stay-at-home-order-interferes-with-right-to-go-to-church (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/man-files-lawsuit-claiming-govs-stay-at-home-order-interferes-with-right-to-go-to-church)




https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-tony-spell-louisiana-pastor-20200408-4ijmxbx7mna43ics4qncmzmvae-story.html (https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-tony-spell-louisiana-pastor-20200408-4ijmxbx7mna43ics4qncmzmvae-story.html)


Pastor Tony Spell is one of many church leaders who are under investigation by state Law Enforcement for violating "Shelter in place orders" by their Governors. These pastors are putting their congregation in compromised situations. But they are trying to play the "Freedom of Religion" card with law enforcement.


https://www.nola.com/opinions/will_sutton/article_79ee008e-74f3-11ea-a9e7-27cf3f3b7756.html (https://www.nola.com/opinions/will_sutton/article_79ee008e-74f3-11ea-a9e7-27cf3f3b7756.html)


https://www.tmz.com/2020/04/08/louisiana-pastor-tony-spell-arrested-coronavirus-worshipers-sacrifice-god (https://www.tmz.com/2020/04/08/louisiana-pastor-tony-spell-arrested-coronavirus-worshipers-sacrifice-god/)/




https://www.christianpost.com/news/uganda-arrests-pastor-for-denying-coronavirus-outbreak-on-television.html


https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/update-police-ticket-church-leaders-after-they-refuse-to-disperse-sunday-service-of-more-than/article_9d26619f-955b-5a69-b87b-f47d01effb38.html (https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/update-police-ticket-church-leaders-after-they-refuse-to-disperse-sunday-service-of-more-than/article_9d26619f-955b-5a69-b87b-f47d01effb38.html)




https://www.kxii.com/content/news/Texoma-church-still-holding-in-person-services-during-COVID-19-crisis-569388571.html (https://www.kxii.com/content/news/Texoma-church-still-holding-in-person-services-during-COVID-19-crisis-569388571.html)




https://wlos.com/news/coronavirus/some-kentucky-churches-plan-to-gather-despite-virus-orders (https://wlos.com/news/coronavirus/some-kentucky-churches-plan-to-gather-despite-virus-orders)









Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on April 08, 2020, 07:30:08 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 08:15:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

Indeed. At what point do we conclude that social distancing is no longer the reason for declining cases? I do not want to be the one to make that call.

Quote from: Bruce on April 08, 2020, 07:30:08 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

Faaaaaantastic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 08, 2020, 08:50:56 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Probably due to a few things: It was caught early enough that it didn't spread for weeks uncontrolled. Social distancing was implemented much earlier than in other areas. And there's a large Asian American population, especially in the Seattle area. I don't want to read too much into that, but I think it's fair to say that Asian Americans were probably aware much sooner of the severity of the crisis, and more willing (and prepared) to listen to the government and do their part to social distance.

But by far the biggest reason is that they just haven't ramped up testing like NY and NJ have, so there's (likely) more unreported cases. That's not to say WA has done a bad job at all, it just goes to show just how much testing has ramped up in the NYC area relative to the rest of the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 09:11:57 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 08:15:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

Indeed. At what point do we conclude that social distancing is no longer the reason for declining cases? I do not want to be the one to make that call.

Not until the vaccine is available. What is needed is a controlled release of restrictions, often on a case by case basis.
But a lot of things would touch fundamental operations of society, and that would be hard to implement. See that pastor suing the state on religious freedom issues. My personal opinion that while the state has a rock solid scientific and societal reason to do what they do, constitutionally that stands no chance at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 08, 2020, 09:31:13 PM
A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 08, 2020, 11:54:00 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 09:11:57 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 08:15:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

Indeed. At what point do we conclude that social distancing is no longer the reason for declining cases? I do not want to be the one to make that call.

Not until the vaccine is available. What is needed is a controlled release of restrictions, often on a case by case basis.
But a lot of things would touch fundamental operations of society, and that would be hard to implement. See that pastor suing the state on religious freedom issues. My personal opinion that while the state has a rock solid scientific and societal reason to do what they do, constitutionally that stands no chance at all.

The facts will tell us when the reason for the decline is different.  That isn't something we just conclude because we want to change strategies.  Right now, separation is the only tool we have to prevent a catastrophic spread.  At some point, the widespread availability of testing and selective quarantines will let us start to go back outside while outbreaks are contained.  The availability of an effective treatment would make outbreaks more manageable.

After Katrina, I remember Andrew Napolitano being asked about forcing people to leave their own homes.  He said it would require showing that the person presented a danger to others by the act of remaining in his own home.  That would be very difficult to show.  Showing that large gatherings of people present a danger to those people and to the whole community is is basically a foregone conclusion right now.  As long as religious groups aren't being singled out, I don't see a constitutional issue.  No one thinks that a religion that practices human sacrifice should get an exemption from laws intended to secure public safety because of freedom of religion.  Your freedom of religion and freedom of speech and other freedoms don't exempt you from laws that are intended to protect people, in the least restrictive way possible, and apply to everyone equally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 12:00:53 AM
Popped up on my Facebook feed today, South Park throwback:

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 09, 2020, 12:14:52 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

The way I suspect this works out is once the caseload gets low enough, we switch from broad strategies to more targeted strategies.

This might mean, for example, that people are generally permitted to go about most of their day to day activities as normal, but if someone tests positive, you instantly put the surrounding area under lockdown, as well as the area around anywhere that person has been recently. You then send CDC staff (or delegates thereof) door to door testing everyone in these local areas. If everyone in the house tests negative, they get cleared to go out again. If anyone in the house tests positive, or refuses to consent to being tested, then everyone in the house is quarantined for two weeks.

Meanwhile in order to keep the number of occasions where this happens down, large gatherings continue to be banned and people continue to be told they shouldn't undertake any non-essential travel outside of the general area where they live, until it stops happening altogether.

We can't do things like this now because the virus is all over the place and we can't test everyone. But once we have it down to only popping up here and there occasionally, we can play that kind of whack-a-mole with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 09, 2020, 12:15:13 AM
FWIW the first round of rebate checks are supposed to go out this morning.  The IRS said this first wave will be to people who already have direct deposit set up from past tax returns.  That about 60M people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 12:21:40 AM
Apparently respiratory diseases was the number three likeliest thing to kill you even before Coronavirus according to the NSC:

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/

Heart disease barely beats out cancer in the odds.  I seem to recall both were 1/7 for a really long time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on April 09, 2020, 01:00:08 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 08, 2020, 08:50:56 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Probably due to a few things: It was caught early enough that it didn't spread for weeks uncontrolled. Social distancing was implemented much earlier than in other areas. And there's a large Asian American population, especially in the Seattle area. I don't want to read too much into that, but I think it's fair to say that Asian Americans were probably aware much sooner of the severity of the crisis, and more willing (and prepared) to listen to the government and do their part to social distance.

But by far the biggest reason is that they just haven't ramped up testing like NY and NJ have, so there's (likely) more unreported cases. That's not to say WA has done a bad job at all, it just goes to show just how much testing has ramped up in the NYC area relative to the rest of the country.

The virus actually did spread around the Seattle area beginning in January with the first detected case (and likely others on the same flight from China). The Fred Hutch Center compared samples from the first case and a case on February 28 and found that they shared a direct connection. (Source (https://www.geekwire.com/2020/genetic-analysis-suggests-coronavirus-infections-double-every-six-days-spreading-hundreds/))

And I'd probably credit the traditional Seattle freeze as much as the Asian influence (which also played into the freeze). We know how to stay home for long periods of time, and we are ready to drop contact at a moment's notice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 09, 2020, 02:54:23 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 08, 2020, 09:31:13 PM
A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

Well, the pushback doesn't need to happen later. Some of the most severe restrictions just can continue. They just can. It's way in hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:20:02 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 09, 2020, 02:54:23 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 08, 2020, 09:31:13 PM
A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

Well, the pushback doesn't need to happen later. Some of the most severe restrictions just can continue. They just can. It's way in hand.
Total quarantine is good for one thing - extinguishing initial flare out. NYC will stabilize in another 10-15 days, many other areas didn't flare that bad. We don't really hope to totally eliminate the problem worldwide. Once spread - it is out there. Took decades and centuries to eliminate smallpox - with a good vaccine and all that.
NYC had official infection rate of about 1%, probably 2-5% real, and it is very bad for hospitals. If we expect to keep hospital admissions flat, it will take 14 to 35 times as long to achieve 70% herd immunity.  4 months to 2 years
News flash: if farmers are not in field beginning of May, famine will overshadow infection problems.. 
So, we need to learn to coexist with the virus. Or things will turn much worse pretty quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 09, 2020, 07:31:08 AM
...and deaths in NY are back up.  The one or two day decline in the rate was a "blip," as Cuomo mentioned as a possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 09, 2020, 08:44:40 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 09, 2020, 07:31:08 AM
...and deaths in NY are back up.  The one or two day decline in the rate was a "blip," as Cuomo mentioned as a possibility.

The problem is this thing takes so long to run its cycle.  You can get infected, be asymptomatic for 7-10 days and then have mild/moderate symptoms for another 7 days before you require hospitalization.  You can hang on in the hospital for up to 21 days before dying.  That means you can go over a month with an infection before dying, which means it can be a month from the time stay at home orders were implemented until we start seeing the results. 

For the states that were earliest to implement stay at home orders, we should be getting close to the point where everybody who has it has either recovered or is in a hospital. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on April 09, 2020, 09:39:46 AM
Quote from: Bruce on April 08, 2020, 07:30:08 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

SE of Everett, NE of Seattle.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 11:40:36 AM
I think Inslee made the right choice in extending the stay at home order till May, which should really help in pushing us well past the peak in this state.  Afterwards, people still need to make good choices in how much they go out, interact in groups and personal hygiene.  Until there is an effective vaccine or some strong evidence that herd immunity is prevalent, we need to remain cautious. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 09, 2020, 12:23:34 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 08, 2020, 07:27:44 PMThese pastors are putting their congregation in compromised situations. But they are trying to play the "Freedom of Religion" card with law enforcement.

No, they aren't. People can make their own decisions about whether or not to attend services.

Quote from: bandit957 on April 08, 2020, 09:31:13 PM
A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

I agree with you. I don't think the general public or the business community will put up with this much longer than the end of the month. People want to work, they want to travel, businesses want to open, churches want to hold services, etc. There will be a revolt and the government will be powerless to stop it. They can't arrest every shopkeeper or pastor who opens up in defiance of an executive order that's likely unconstitutional. I think you'll see a massive pushback by the first weekend of May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 09, 2020, 12:39:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 09, 2020, 12:23:34 PM
I agree with you. I don't think the general public or the business community will put up with this much longer than the end of the month. People want to work, they want to travel, businesses want to open, churches want to hold services, etc. There will be a revolt and the government will be powerless to stop it. They can't arrest every shopkeeper or pastor who opens up in defiance of an executive order that's likely unconstitutional. I think you'll see a massive pushback by the first weekend of May.

I'm in no hurry for huge public gatherings. But limiting basic travel and simple assembly just rips everything out of society. And I don't even think it was effective. States or countries that issued major lockdowns still had more and more cases for a long time afterward. There should have been plenty of time to reduce new cases dramatically.

I wouldn't be that worried about the economy if I knew that a remedy for it would be enacted. The biggest threat is social. You cannot have a society under a lockdown. There have already been huge increases in domestic violence and suicides caused by lockdowns, and there will be more problems discovered in the long term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 09, 2020, 12:57:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 09, 2020, 12:23:34 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 08, 2020, 07:27:44 PMThese pastors are putting their congregation in compromised situations. But they are trying to play the "Freedom of Religion" card with law enforcement.

No, they aren't. People can make their own decisions about whether or not to attend services.

Quote from: bandit957 on April 08, 2020, 09:31:13 PM
A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

I agree with you. I don't think the general public or the business community will put up with this much longer than the end of the month. People want to work, they want to travel, businesses want to open, churches want to hold services, etc. There will be a revolt and the government will be powerless to stop it. They can't arrest every shopkeeper or pastor who opens up in defiance of an executive order that's likely unconstitutional. I think you'll see a massive pushback by the first weekend of May.


While people will be itching to get out of the house, there will be a general fear of the virus.  Store owners aren't being arrested per say, but rather served with a summons.  When their court date is held, that's when they'll be fined or jailed, depending on the nature of the offense.  But since most people want to be on the good side of the law, you're not going to see a rioting-type effect in the streets of people just ignoring the government's wishes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on April 09, 2020, 01:19:22 PM
And now, most of Wisconsin's State Parks will be indefinitely closed as of tomorrow: https://dnr.wi.gov/covid-19/ (https://dnr.wi.gov/covid-19/). Looks like our annual admission sticker has just turned into a government donation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 09, 2020, 08:44:40 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 09, 2020, 07:31:08 AM
...and deaths in NY are back up.  The one or two day decline in the rate was a "blip," as Cuomo mentioned as a possibility.

The problem is this thing takes so long to run its cycle.  You can get infected, be asymptomatic for 7-10 days and then have mild/moderate symptoms for another 7 days before you require hospitalization.  You can hang on in the hospital for up to 21 days before dying.  That means you can go over a month with an infection before dying, which means it can be a month from the time stay at home orders were implemented until we start seeing the results. 

For the states that were earliest to implement stay at home orders, we should be getting close to the point where everybody who has it has either recovered or is in a hospital. 
Exactly.  I would consider the number of new cases/hospitalizations as far more indicative of where we are on the curve than number of deaths.  Cases are to deaths as lightning is to thunder.

Quote from: Duke87 on April 09, 2020, 12:14:52 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 08, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

The way I suspect this works out is once the caseload gets low enough, we switch from broad strategies to more targeted strategies.

This might mean, for example, that people are generally permitted to go about most of their day to day activities as normal, but if someone tests positive, you instantly put the surrounding area under lockdown, as well as the area around anywhere that person has been recently. You then send CDC staff (or delegates thereof) door to door testing everyone in these local areas. If everyone in the house tests negative, they get cleared to go out again. If anyone in the house tests positive, or refuses to consent to being tested, then everyone in the house is quarantined for two weeks.

Meanwhile in order to keep the number of occasions where this happens down, large gatherings continue to be banned and people continue to be told they shouldn't undertake any non-essential travel outside of the general area where they live, until it stops happening altogether.

We can't do things like this now because the virus is all over the place and we can't test everyone. But once we have it down to only popping up here and there occasionally, we can play that kind of whack-a-mole with it.
This is the phase that people concerned about civil liberties should really be worried about.  Big things like widespread shelter in place orders are too heavy-handed to keep up forever and too tied to circumstances that have guaranteed endpoints.  These lighter measures, not so much - so there is a danger that, just like the Patriot Act or the TSA, they become permanent (especially if coronavirus proves to be impossible to vaccinate against, as I fear may be the case with the reinfection statistics we've been seeing).  I for one do not want any part of living in a society where you can be going about your life and get put on lockdown without warning.  I'd rather keep the heavier measures for long enough to eradicate the disease in the US and then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in infections. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 02:33:26 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PMI'd rather keep the heavier measures for long enough to eradicate the disease in the US and then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Forget eradication. Not really an option here.
Mutating virus to less severe disease is the best possible - but not guaranteed - case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 02:39:59 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in infections.
2 weeks quarantine at the border - international borders optimistically, state or regional borders within US mildly pessimistically, at city fence pessimistically.
Comparmentalization is  well known strategy for disease control... Constitutional? well, Darwin theory works regardless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.
Deaths may be a better metric, and NY has a chance to catch up with Italy and Spain - and probably already is on a per-capita basis.
This thing will be known as NYC virus after all, I'm afraid
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:46:34 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in infections. 
For now, but not forever.  Look at China.  For a while the danger was people from there spreading it to the rest of the world, but now the danger is people from everywhere else spreading it back, leading to China closing their border to prevent this.

Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 02:33:26 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PMI'd rather keep the heavier measures for long enough to eradicate the disease in the US and then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Forget eradication. Not really an option here.
Mutating virus to less severe disease is the best possible - but not guaranteed - case.

Maybe not globally, but within a country should be possible.  China managed - they got to a point where 100% of new cases could be traced to travel from out of the country, at which point they shut the border and reopened the country.  True, they're also not 100% normal, but they're an authoritarian country so if they can reopen sooner by using surveillance and civil liberties infringements rather than waiting for 100% of people with the virus to be recovered and no longer infectious, that's what they're going to do.

Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.
Deaths may be a better metric, and NY has a chance to catch up with Italy and Spain - and probably already is on a per-capita basis.
This thing will be known as NYC virus after all, I'm afraid
Italy had to ration who was treated for coronavirus.  As Cuomo said in a daily press briefing, NYC never got to the point where people were being refused care due to lack of capacity (though I'm sure it came uncomfortably close, and required special provisions like sharing ventilators).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:07:36 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:46:34 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
Deaths may be a better metric, and NY has a chance to catch up with Italy and Spain - and probably already is on a per-capita basis.
This thing will be known as NYC virus after all, I'm afraid
Italy had to ration who was treated for coronavirus.  As Cuomo said in a daily press briefing, NYC never got to the point where people were being refused care due to lack of capacity (though I'm sure it came uncomfortably close, and required special provisions like sharing ventilators).
NY had a much better preparedness, yet of right now Italy has 302 deaths per million, Spain 326 and NYS 360 - and unlike Europe, NYS isn't past death peak yet.
Underreporting is a big question. NYC has about 150-200 daily undiagnosed at-home deaths more than normal (10x normal, actually)  - about 20%. Not sure what EU numbers are (not trivial, for sure. France doubled their number in a single day because of similar issue). But even with hyperactive Cuomo, NYC is worse off than any other  spot on a map.

UPD: to put things into perspective, "normal" annual mortality in US is about 950 per million, or 80 people per million monthly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 03:18:35 PM
Apparently First Responders are being allowed to skip lines at Costco.  My wife is both I'm the former, so I suppose that's cool...although we don't need anything. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on April 09, 2020, 03:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 03:31:18 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 09, 2020, 03:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

The fact that NYC and NYS have about 150,000 reported cases is pretty telling that because that is the part of the U.S. that has a population density closest to Europe (at least NYC).  Now at the end of the day the actual fatalities will be a far more accurate statistic at plotting out the spread than reported cases.  Most cases won't ever go reported because people don't know they have it or don't have the symptom severity that would merit a test.  One thing is for sure, dense urban environments are getting hit way harder (which should be no surprise since that model has been something in almost every global pandemic). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:33:59 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 09, 2020, 03:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike
NYS has more reported cases than any country (other than USA, of course). That can be a result of aggressive testing, though, so not so bad per se.
We're also petty high in death counts, after Italy Spain and France - and still not at plateau in terms of daily deaths - which is a worse sign...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 09, 2020, 03:41:00 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 09, 2020, 03:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

Of course the population is a factor, but the fact that we exploded past the other countries in cases and deaths after we saw what was going on there tells us that we responded poorly. 

On January 30, the US confirmed its first person to person transmission, and the same day the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency.  Those two events should have been enough to trigger a lot of the measures that took until mid to late March to get put into place.

If we had locked down the country in early February, we probably could have limited the loss of life to a couple thousand or less, and we could be getting things back to normal by about now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 03:45:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 09, 2020, 03:41:00 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 09, 2020, 03:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

Of course the population is a factor, but the fact that we exploded past the other countries in cases and deaths after we saw what was going on there tells us that we responded poorly. 

On January 30, the US confirmed its first person to person transmission, and the same day the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency.  Those two events should have been enough to trigger a lot of the measures that took until mid to late March to get put into place.

If we had locked down the country in early February, we probably could have limited the loss of life to a couple thousand or less, and we could be getting things back to normal by about now.

But you're talking about measures that haven't been implemented in several generations.  All this talk over the last couple decades about "insert Virus"  coming to get us probably played a bigger factor than is being assumed in why the response was slow. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 03:47:16 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:53:31 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.
Are they even testing? (Hint: not nearly as much as US!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:55:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 03:47:16 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...
China is probably pretty accurate. Well, as accurate as anyone can be with mild symptoms not worthy of testing or seeking doctor help and so not accounted for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:59:31 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 09, 2020, 03:41:00 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 09, 2020, 03:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 09, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 09, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.
Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

Of course the population is a factor, but the fact that we exploded past the other countries in cases and deaths after we saw what was going on there tells us that we responded poorly. 

On January 30, the US confirmed its first person to person transmission, and the same day the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency.  Those two events should have been enough to trigger a lot of the measures that took until mid to late March to get put into place.

If we had locked down the country in early February, we probably could have limited the loss of life to a couple thousand or less, and we could be getting things back to normal by about now.
I would argue that a single 1-page document put out by CDC on February 1st is responsible for most of what we see in US now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 09, 2020, 04:01:42 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

It's incredibly likely that those numbers are underreported, but those are also two countries where there is not a lot of international travel to those countries or by their residents compared to China, Europe and the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 04:06:22 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 09, 2020, 04:01:42 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

It's incredibly likely that those numbers are underreported, but those are also two countries where there is not a lot of international travel to those countries or by their residents compared to China, Europe and the US.
Per worldmeter, Indonesia administered 14,000 tests, India 146,000 - and US 2.4 million
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 04:13:36 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:55:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 03:47:16 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...
China is probably pretty accurate. Well, as accurate as anyone can be with mild symptoms not worthy of testing or seeking doctor help and so not accounted for.

I know we talked about it up thread but that really opens the door to China not being the origin point if there is solid accuracy there.  It's sad to say but it is pretty hard to believe what the Chinese government puts out about anything on a humanitarian level, hopefully it is good information this time.  Granted there are a bunch of people around the world that probably are questioning what their public officials have done or told them regarding the current pandemic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 04:13:36 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 03:55:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 09, 2020, 03:47:16 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 09, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...
China is probably pretty accurate. Well, as accurate as anyone can be with mild symptoms not worthy of testing or seeking doctor help and so not accounted for.

I know we talked about it up thread but that really opens the door to China not being the origin point if there is solid accuracy there.  It's sad to say but it is pretty hard to believe what the Chinese government puts out about anything on a humanitarian level, hopefully it is good information this time.  Granted there are a bunch of people around the world that probably are questioning what their public officials have done or told them regarding the current pandemic.
You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.
There is a long twitter chain (is that the best source these days?) on the issue: https://twitter.com/chaosong/status/1247712587728519168 
Looks like reasonable set of arguments..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on April 09, 2020, 04:39:20 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 08, 2020, 07:30:08 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

It led to an uprising at the prison.

https://www.newser.com/story/289344/state-prison-erupts-after-6-inmates-test-positive.html

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:17 PM
Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:53 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:17 PM
Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 09, 2020, 05:51:30 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.
Duh, because the latter is based on the former!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 06:01:20 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 09, 2020, 05:51:30 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.
Duh, because the latter is based on the former!
No. There are some very interesting cross-checks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 09, 2020, 07:13:02 PM
Quote from: ixnay on April 09, 2020, 04:39:20 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 08, 2020, 07:30:08 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 08, 2020, 06:54:48 PM
It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

It led to an uprising at the prison.

https://www.newser.com/story/289344/state-prison-erupts-after-6-inmates-test-positive.html

Glad it didn't turn into a full-blown riot where guards start getting hurt.

Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 09, 2020, 08:02:26 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 09, 2020, 07:13:02 PM
Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?

I know there was a really bad one in New Mexico. There was also a really bad one in Ohio back around 1993.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on April 09, 2020, 08:15:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 06:01:20 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 09, 2020, 05:51:30 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 09, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.
Duh, because the latter is based on the former!
No. There are some very interesting cross-checks.

I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on April 09, 2020, 08:17:51 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 09, 2020, 08:15:11 PM
I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.
They aren't report the true number of cases, it's quite simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 09, 2020, 08:26:45 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on April 09, 2020, 08:17:51 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 09, 2020, 08:15:11 PM
I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.
They aren't report the true number of cases, it's quite simple.
{{citation-needed}}
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 08:30:32 PM
I remember saying that infection chains reaching from China to us through countries that waited longer to restrict travel would be our downfall.  Looks like I was right.  The NY cases came from Europe.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/health/new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-europe-origin/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on April 09, 2020, 08:39:04 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 09, 2020, 08:26:45 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on April 09, 2020, 08:17:51 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 09, 2020, 08:15:11 PM
I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.
They aren't report the true number of cases, it's quite simple.
{{citation-needed}}

Here's one article backing up my point:
https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/evidence-from-wuhans-morgues-crematoriums-suggests-covid-19-deaths-20-times-higher-than-official-count
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 09, 2020, 09:25:03 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 09, 2020, 08:30:32 PM
I remember saying that infection chains reaching from China to us through countries that waited longer to restrict travel would be our downfall.  Looks like I was right.  The NY cases came from Europe.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/health/new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-europe-origin/index.html

So basically we set up a Maginot line against the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: noelbotevera on April 09, 2020, 09:45:39 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:53 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:17 PM
Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.
Pennsylvania joined the pack today. The only work I have to do is a simple project and a condensed version of the AP tests.

Thus officially begins my 5 month summer vacation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 09, 2020, 11:01:59 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on April 09, 2020, 09:45:39 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:53 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:17 PM
Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.
Pennsylvania joined the pack today. The only work I have to do is a simple project and a condensed version of the AP tests.

Thus officially begins my 5 month summer vacation.
As of today, these states have cancelled in-person instruction for the rest of the school year:
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state
I expect to see most if not all other states follow suit in the next week or two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 09, 2020, 11:08:26 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 09, 2020, 11:01:59 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on April 09, 2020, 09:45:39 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:53 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on April 09, 2020, 05:07:17 PM
Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.
Pennsylvania joined the pack today. The only work I have to do is a simple project and a condensed version of the AP tests.

Thus officially begins my 5 month summer vacation.
As of today, these states have cancelled in-person instruction for the rest of the school year:
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state
I expect to see most if not all other states follow suit in the next week or two.

I have two kids.  One who is up by 8am and has her school work done by noon, the other who I rarely see before 9:30am and doesn't start his school work until 3pm.  When schools starts up in August (hopefully), that 6:45 alarm is going to be rough the first few days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 10, 2020, 12:18:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 09, 2020, 08:02:26 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 09, 2020, 07:13:02 PM
Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?

I know there was a really bad one in New Mexico. There was also a really bad one in Ohio back around 1993.

Doesn't look like anyone was hurt in the Monroe Riot. I guess that's good, and will keep it off the history books (largely).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 10, 2020, 11:24:57 AM
Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: sprjus4 on April 10, 2020, 11:45:47 AM
Report from the HRTPO (Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization) detailing the impact of COVID-19 on the Hampton Roads region as far as transportation, traffic volume decreases, transit ridership decreases, etc.

https://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/COVID-19%20Transportation_v3.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 10, 2020, 11:49:38 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 10, 2020, 11:24:57 AM
Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.

The NYC mass grave is temporary. I guess continuing to provide refrigerated trucks for storage was no longer feasible?

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. The other day, he reported something like 1,349 total cases and 336 people recovered. So what should have been reported, in my opinion, was 1,013 current active cases. The map he releases every day still shows counties with cases where everyone who was reported as testing positive has made a full recovery. My personal opinion is that he is manipulating the figures to continue to justify his heavy-handed shutdown of businesses and unconstitutional restrictions on religious services and the freedom of assembly. When asked, they will provide figures on hospitalizations (about a quarter or less of those who test positive) and ICU utilization (about a quarter or less of those who are hospitalized due to the virus.)

Also, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus. A truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 01:04:26 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 10, 2020, 11:49:38 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 10, 2020, 11:24:57 AM
Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.

The NYC mass grave is temporary. I guess continuing to provide refrigerated trucks for storage was no longer feasible?

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. The other day, he reported something like 1,349 total cases and 336 people recovered. So what should have been reported, in my opinion, was 1,013 current active cases. The map he releases every day still shows counties with cases where everyone who was reported as testing positive has made a full recovery. My personal opinion is that he is manipulating the figures to continue to justify his heavy-handed shutdown of businesses and unconstitutional restrictions on religious services and the freedom of assembly. When asked, they will provide figures on hospitalizations (about a quarter or less of those who test positive) and ICU utilization (about a quarter or less of those who are hospitalized due to the virus.)

Also, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus. A truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.
Not sure if  opening up this "temporary" thing would be a good idea. For one, what's the point of moving sealed coffin with pretty decomposed stuff inside?
Daily cases is the best number - they show what is going on. And deaths from unrelated cases - it is known that virus kills via complications of other problems. If not infected, people could live  long enough. So is it virus or unrelated? Overall, NYC death rate is about 3-4x normal rate at this point, and I suspect there is a singular reason for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 10, 2020, 01:16:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 10, 2020, 11:49:38 AM

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. ...

I work for a health insurer that is owned by a hospital system in Detroit.  The hospital reports the number of patients discharged and number deceased.  But they sent out this message on how "recovered" is defined:

QuoteDuring this response, MDHHS is reviewing vital records statistics to identify any laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases who are 30 days out from their onset of illness to represent recovery status. As the pandemic continues to impact Michigan, this pool will expand to include more cases. Recovered is defined as the number of persons with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis who are alive 30 days post-onset (or referral date if onset is not available).  The number of persons recovered on April 3rd, 2020 represents COVID-19 confirmed individuals with an onset date on or prior to March 4th, 2020. These numbers will be updated every Saturday.

Since this is such a fast-moving epidemic, most cases have been reported in the last 30 days, and so most cases can't be considered recovered yet, even if they are at home and exhibiting no symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 08:01:01 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 01:04:26 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 10, 2020, 11:49:38 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 10, 2020, 11:24:57 AM
Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.

The NYC mass grave is temporary. I guess continuing to provide refrigerated trucks for storage was no longer feasible?

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. The other day, he reported something like 1,349 total cases and 336 people recovered. So what should have been reported, in my opinion, was 1,013 current active cases. The map he releases every day still shows counties with cases where everyone who was reported as testing positive has made a full recovery. My personal opinion is that he is manipulating the figures to continue to justify his heavy-handed shutdown of businesses and unconstitutional restrictions on religious services and the freedom of assembly. When asked, they will provide figures on hospitalizations (about a quarter or less of those who test positive) and ICU utilization (about a quarter or less of those who are hospitalized due to the virus.)

Also, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus. A truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.
Not sure if  opening up this "temporary" thing would be a good idea. For one, what's the point of moving sealed coffin with pretty decomposed stuff inside?
Daily cases is the best number - they show what is going on. And deaths from unrelated cases - it is known that virus kills via complications of other problems. If not infected, people could live  long enough. So is it virus or unrelated? Overall, NYC death rate is about 3-4x normal rate at this point, and I suspect there is a singular reason for that.

Has COVID-19 been really conclusively shown to bring on things like heart problems?  If someone had a severe "underlying condition" and it ended up being brought to a head by an infection like COVID-19...is it still not more attributable to that underlying condition over the virus?  It does seem misleading to pinpoint the cause of death solely to a viral infection in cases where there was clearly a severe medical problem that was waiting on the straw to break the camel's back.  To that end, is there any clear data out there showing the percentage of deaths in individuals with serious known existing health problems versus those who don't? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on April 10, 2020, 09:04:06 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 10, 2020, 11:49:38 AMAlso, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus.
I think it more than balances out with the number of people who probably weren't diagnosed with it and died from it. While there might be a tiny handful overzealous diagnoses, there's possibly many more that weren't counted or just unknown.

At this time, it is a bit tougher to figure out how many people have recovered from it, without knowing how many people were affected in an enough of a manner as to be noticeable. Admittedly, it doesn't make the same sort of news, though we seem to know that many people can recover from it.

QuoteA truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.

Won't someone please think of the Benjamins? You do realize our Framers (nor much of anyone else) had no ideas about disease being a truly microscopic problem that would not be easily contained; they would have sooner chalked up such ills as "bad bile", "poor temperment", "fault in the cosmos", or some such ignorance 200 years ago?

Yeah, it sucks to be lonely right now and probably worse to be out of work when there's limited assistance, but economy is looking for retail jobs all over the few places I've been.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 10, 2020, 09:19:29 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 10, 2020, 09:04:06 PM
Won't someone please think of the Benjamins? You do realize our Framers (nor much of anyone else) had no ideas about disease being a truly microscopic problem that would not be easily contained; they would have sooner chalked up such ills as "bad bile", "poor temperment", "fault in the cosmos", or some such ignorance 200 years ago?

There were pandemics all the time 200 years ago. I thought I read that Congress wouldn't meet in Philadelphia (back when it was the capital) because there was a yellow fever epidemic there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 09:57:38 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 10, 2020, 09:19:29 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 10, 2020, 09:04:06 PM
Won't someone please think of the Benjamins? You do realize our Framers (nor much of anyone else) had no ideas about disease being a truly microscopic problem that would not be easily contained; they would have sooner chalked up such ills as "bad bile", "poor temperment", "fault in the cosmos", or some such ignorance 200 years ago?

There were pandemics all the time 200 years ago. I thought I read that Congress wouldn't meet in Philadelphia (back when it was the capital) because there was a yellow fever epidemic there.

Pandemics back then were infinitely worse and far more varied back in the 18th Century.  Public figures certainly would have been well versed in some of the more significant diseases in history.  Back then you pretty had a pretty good chance of dying from diseases that are easily treatable now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 10:22:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 08:01:01 PM
Has COVID-19 been really conclusively shown to bring on things like heart problems?  If someone had a severe "underlying condition" and it ended up being brought to a head by an infection like COVID-19...is it still not more attributable to that underlying condition over the virus?  It does seem misleading to pinpoint the cause of death solely to a viral infection in cases where there was clearly a severe medical problem that was waiting on the straw to break the camel's back.  To that end, is there any clear data out there showing the percentage of deaths in individuals with serious known existing health problems versus those who don't?
Well, the worsening of heart problems is obvious for me. You see, what this virus does it affects lungs - so oxygen absorption. Once the body doesn't get enough oxygen, rationing via blood vessels shrinkage and expansion starts (body's objective is to keep the brain alive at any cost). Heart is a very hard-working muscle, needs a lot of O2, and prone to problems with lack of transport.

What you're trying to say, as far as I understand,  is that average virus death means loss of fewer years of life than some non-discriminate issue, like a huge meteor hitting a town, where you can reasonably say that ~40 years of life is lost on average, averaging grandpa and grandkids.
Usually, such accounting is not really done as individual life expectancy is hard to predict, and too many ethical and legal problems would arise. Although, it is being done for expensive health procedures where cost-efficiency of spending finite funds starts to matter (death panels, huh?)
FOr the sake of argument, though - yes, many virus deaths are in 70+ range, and that means 15 or fewer years of life on average are lost per death. But continuing this discussion brings some really uncomfortable questions...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 10, 2020, 10:40:41 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 09, 2020, 08:02:26 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 09, 2020, 07:13:02 PM
Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?

I know there was a really bad one in New Mexico. There was also a really bad one in Ohio back around 1993.
You are thinking of the 1993 Lucasville Prision riot (which started 27 years ago tomorrow)
https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/things-remember-about-the-lucasville-prison-riot-years-later/OOZzf7iPcYnlEKF0wZ8mAM/

Meanwhile, there was a prision riot in Kansas yesterday.
https://www.kmbc.com/article/ks-corrections-department-investigating-lansing-prison-riot/32111654
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 10, 2020, 10:54:41 PM
So while Ohio has been getting good grades for how we're handling the Coronavirus pandemic, some folks begged to differ.
(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/04/10/PCIN/98981373-e7a6-4ffb-bb0f-bd986e93af0b-knec200410.jpg)

The cartoon was based on this incident that occurred Thursday afternoon:
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/04/09/coronavirus-ohio-gov-dewine-updates-ohioans-covid-19-response/5121814002/
https://radio.wosu.org/post/coronavirus-ohio-protesters-gather-outside-statehouse-criticize-shutdowns?fbclid=IwAR0DE_zVJMZUC3LTevc11_QayHZ60m5Szi1MqTa4hMOml1MZv2_bQx275W4#stream/0
Strangely, when asked by "mainstream media outlets" whose idea it was to organize this protest, no one wanted to divulge any names.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 11:16:40 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 10:22:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 08:01:01 PM
Has COVID-19 been really conclusively shown to bring on things like heart problems?  If someone had a severe "underlying condition" and it ended up being brought to a head by an infection like COVID-19...is it still not more attributable to that underlying condition over the virus?  It does seem misleading to pinpoint the cause of death solely to a viral infection in cases where there was clearly a severe medical problem that was waiting on the straw to break the camel's back.  To that end, is there any clear data out there showing the percentage of deaths in individuals with serious known existing health problems versus those who don't?
Well, the worsening of heart problems is obvious for me. You see, what this virus does it affects lungs - so oxygen absorption. Once the body doesn't get enough oxygen, rationing via blood vessels shrinkage and expansion starts (body's objective is to keep the brain alive at any cost). Heart is a very hard-working muscle, needs a lot of O2, and prone to problems with lack of transport.

What you're trying to say, as far as I understand,  is that average virus death means loss of fewer years of life than some non-discriminate issue, like a huge meteor hitting a town, where you can reasonably say that ~40 years of life is lost on average, averaging grandpa and grandkids.
Usually, such accounting is not really done as individual life expectancy is hard to predict, and too many ethical and legal problems would arise. Although, it is being done for expensive health procedures where cost-efficiency of spending finite funds starts to matter (death panels, huh?)
FOr the sake of argument, though - yes, many virus deaths are in 70+ range, and that means 15 or fewer years of life on average are lost per death. But continuing this discussion brings some really uncomfortable questions...

If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 10, 2020, 11:22:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 11:16:40 PM

If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence. 

So far, all I've had is the headcold from Hell, but I'm staying in rather than taking any chances.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 11:53:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on December 31, 1969, 07:02:38 PM
If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence.
As of right now, general message I hear - smoking MAY be correlated, but even that is not certain. Otherwise, the say it is fairly random.
I wouldn't be surprised, after all is said and done, it will turn out that certain genetic variations make people more vulnerable. It was "Asians are more prone" originally, doesn't look like the case anymore. Still, genetic links of many diseases are now coming up..
Feel free to push for a random agenda, though, a good crisis should never be wasted.
***edited to fix quote format
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:13:13 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 11:53:50 PM
[quote author=Max Rockatansky link=topic=26301.msg2490500#msg2490500 date=158
If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence.
As of right now, general message I hear - smoking MAY be correlated, but even that is not certain. Otherwise, the say it is fairly random.
I wouldn't be surprised, after all is said and done, it will turn out that certain genetic variations make people more vulnerable. It was "Asians are more prone" originally, doesn't look like the case anymore. Still, genetic links of many diseases are now coming up..
Feel free to push for a random agenda, though, a good crisis should never be wasted.
[/quote]

^^^

What pushing for people to actually live healthy lifestyles?  Especially those around me?...sign me up.  I'd argue if my Dad didn't spend 35 years of his life sitting around inactive and overeating he never would have had heart problems.  Conversely I doubt my Mom would have had lung cancer had she not smoked for 48 years.  To that end both of them would be lumped into the category of high risk during the current pandemic if they were alive.  These days I have a bunch of family now through my wife that I see making the exact same or very similar mistakes.  If making them worry about getting a virus is the push they need, why not give it a try?  Its not like I can make them change their ways, but it doesn't mean it isn't worth a try.

Besides, is it not the public message already that people in unhealthy groups/lifestyles are ones who at risk and needed protection from everyone else in society?  Living a healthier lifestyle doesn't completely eliminate risk nor makes one immune to disease but it certainly wouldn't hurt putting the odds in one's favor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:16:30 AM
Quote from: US71 on April 10, 2020, 11:22:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 11:16:40 PM

If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence. 

So far, all I've had is the headcold from Hell, but I'm staying in rather than taking any chances.

Isn't the general rule of thumb right now to isolate for 72 hours and to see if the symptoms improve?  Seems like the major symptoms are of COVID-19; fatigue, fever, and a dry cough by a large margin.  Apparently cold like symptoms show up in a small percentage of cases followed by some other flu-like symptoms or digestive issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:33:47 AM
It seems that the Coronavirus in California back late 2019 theory is starting to get a little mainstream attention.  There has been several articles today based of something a Stanford research said.

https://abc7.com/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-in-california-doctor-shares-his-thoughts/6093912/

Granted the comparisons between New York and California aren't one-for-one.  The only City that has a density near NYC is San Francisco and they shut down early.  Most communities are far more spread out in the rest of the state than they are in NYS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 12:42:21 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:33:47 AM
Most communities are far more spread out in the rest of the state than they are in NYS.

I think you mean NYC, not NYS?
The city is very dense, obviously, but there are not many densely populated areas up here north of the 42nd parallel.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:47:15 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 12:42:21 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:33:47 AM
Most communities are far more spread out in the rest of the state than they are in NYS.

I think you mean NYC, not NYS?
The city is very dense, obviously, but there are not many densely populated areas up here north of the 42nd parallel.  :)

I mean both, the East Coast in general is far more densely populated than anything on the west coast.  You can easily go 100 miles in between towns in California and even further than that in places like Nevada.  I can't think of a single place out East aside from maybe northern Maine that is similarly sparsely populated. 

Speaking of that, does anyone know what the population density of New York State is if New York City is excluded?  I'd be curious to see what the actual figure is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 11, 2020, 01:48:53 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 09, 2020, 12:39:09 PM
I'm in no hurry for huge public gatherings. But limiting basic travel and simple assembly just rips everything out of society. And I don't even think it was effective. States or countries that issued major lockdowns still had more and more cases for a long time afterward. There should have been plenty of time to reduce new cases dramatically.

There is no question that keeping people apart reduces the spread of viruses; that is an undeniable fact.  Pointing out the places that have the most severe restrictions also had the highest number of infections is like pointing out that the places that use the most water putting out wildfires have the most fires.  The relationship is obvious.  No one thinks that using less water will result in fewer fires.  Using less water to put out fires now will only result in using more water to put out bigger fires later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 11, 2020, 09:17:35 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 09, 2020, 12:23:34 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 08, 2020, 07:27:44 PMThese pastors are putting their congregation in compromised situations. But they are trying to play the "Freedom of Religion" card with law enforcement.

No, they aren't. People can make their own decisions about whether or not to attend services.


Its ridiculously dangerous when you consider that people can spread this disease for days before developing symptoms...if they ever develop symptoms.  Church goers are putting not just themselves at risk, but society at large.

Just stay the f*ck home and watch a service on TV or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: fwydriver405 on April 11, 2020, 10:48:50 AM
Are there any toll facilities that are still accepting cash tolls as of today? The Maine Turnpike is still collecting cash tolls full-time, and New Hampshire is still accepting cash, albeit exact change only from 5am-9pm daily, and then going AET outside of those hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on April 11, 2020, 11:59:05 AM
The freedom-of-religion nutjobs can wait their turn in the legal channels, after all the medical malpractice suits, contract breaking/wiggling, disputed business practices, are taken care of for the next two decades. Show us on the imaginary friend where the government hurt you, and then we'll await that day in court. I've met actual humans who had been deprived of their freedom to worship publicly for far longer than three weeks, and they lived to tell the tale.

"Freedom" and "ignorance" only come before "responsibility" in a dictionary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:02:38 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 11, 2020, 11:59:05 AM
The freedom-of-religion nutjobs can wait their turn in the legal channels, after all the medical malpractice suits, contract breaking/wiggling, disputed business practices, are taken care of for the next two decades. Show us on the imaginary friend where the government hurt you, and then we'll await that day in court.

"Freedom" and "ignorance" only come before "responsibility" in a dictionary.

Didn't the governor of Kentucky just mandate that anyone attending a Easter Service will have to 14 day self quarantine?  I'm sure that will go off without a hitch or legal challenge in a Bible Belt state...

Conversely, a lot of religions and individual churches can be very aggressive with persuading their "congregations"  to attend.  I'm not saying I agree I'm just saying that nobody should be surprised that a lot of push back will he coming. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 11, 2020, 12:12:43 PM
"Florida governor accelerates delayed infrastructure projects with less people on the road." - CNN
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 11, 2020, 12:16:55 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 11:53:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on December 31, 1969, 07:02:38 PM
If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence.

As of right now, general message I hear - smoking MAY be correlated, but even that is not certain.  Otherwise, they say it is fairly random.

I wouldn't be surprised, after all is said and done, it will turn out that certain genetic variations make people more vulnerable. It was "Asians are more prone" originally, doesn't look like the case anymore. Still, genetic links of many diseases are now coming up.

I expect it to be confirmed eventually that a young healthy person's likelihood of developing severe COVID-19 depends on the virus load associated with exposure.  Correlation has already been established (severe cases are associated with high virus load).  If and when causation is proven, our failure to ensure frontline healthcare workers are provided with adequate PPE will be seen in a new and unflattering light.

Choice of treatment method is also increasingly thought to have an effect on survival chances.  Hospitals have been increasingly relying on alternative treatment approaches, such as CPAP with oxygen supplementation, since it is now thought that invasive mechanical ventilation itself is killing a certain proportion of the patients on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 11, 2020, 01:15:14 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 10:22:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 10, 2020, 08:01:01 PM
Has COVID-19 been really conclusively shown to bring on things like heart problems?  If someone had a severe "underlying condition" and it ended up being brought to a head by an infection like COVID-19...is it still not more attributable to that underlying condition over the virus?  It does seem misleading to pinpoint the cause of death solely to a viral infection in cases where there was clearly a severe medical problem that was waiting on the straw to break the camel's back.  To that end, is there any clear data out there showing the percentage of deaths in individuals with serious known existing health problems versus those who don't?
Well, the worsening of heart problems is obvious for me. You see, what this virus does it affects lungs - so oxygen absorption. Once the body doesn't get enough oxygen, rationing via blood vessels shrinkage and expansion starts (body's objective is to keep the brain alive at any cost). Heart is a very hard-working muscle, needs a lot of O2, and prone to problems with lack of transport.

This is why I've been staying home as much as possible, even before our governor gave his executive order. I've had symptomatic PVC's and random bouts of sinus tachycardia (high heart rate) since 2013, and in 2018 my blood pressure became a big problem, especially the diastolic pressure.

I'm taking propranolol 20mg three times a day and losartan 25mg once a day just to keep me above ground and out of the hospital. Last damn thing I need is this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 11, 2020, 01:29:29 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 11, 2020, 12:16:55 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 11:53:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on December 31, 1969, 07:02:38 PM
If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence.

As of right now, general message I hear - smoking MAY be correlated, but even that is not certain.  Otherwise, they say it is fairly random.

I wouldn't be surprised, after all is said and done, it will turn out that certain genetic variations make people more vulnerable. It was "Asians are more prone" originally, doesn't look like the case anymore. Still, genetic links of many diseases are now coming up.

I expect it to be confirmed eventually that a young healthy person's likelihood of developing severe COVID-19 depends on the virus load associated with exposure.  Correlation has already been established (severe cases are associated with high virus load).  If and when causation is proven, our failure to ensure frontline healthcare workers are provided with adequate PPE will be seen in a new and unflattering light.

Choice of treatment method is also increasingly thought to have an effect on survival chances.  Hospitals have been increasingly relying on alternative treatment approaches, such as CPAP with oxygen supplementation, since it is now thought that invasive mechanical ventilation itself is killing a certain proportion of the patients on it.
Virus load most likely matters. Doctors seem to be falling sick, worse than regular people. NOT us only 95% efficient after all. Even the mask I have for work is better than 99.9... but it costs few hundred $..
I heard some very negative opinion about CPAP. Same people were advocating whole lung lavage as a better option, and I would call those arguments very sound. But that is just my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 11, 2020, 03:32:56 PM
So NYC mayor De Blasio decides to join the trend of closing schools for the rest of the year... only for his decision to be voided by NYS governor Cuomo. CT governor Lamont has extended the reopening date to May 20 (1 month), while NJ governor Murphy has dodged the question entirely for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 11, 2020, 03:59:08 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 11, 2020, 03:32:56 PM
So NYC mayor De Blasio decides to join the trend of closing schools for the rest of the year... only for his decision to be voided by NYS governor Cuomo. CT governor Lamont has extended the reopening date to May 20 (1 month), while NJ governor Murphy has dodged the question entirely for now.

I'm surprised it's taken this long for anyone in the NYC tri-state area to even consider it. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and California (which are #3, #4, and #5 respectively in number of cases) made the decision to close schools for the remainder of the year in the last week. The first state to call off school for the rest of the year was Kansas, which I think has less than 500 cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tidecat on April 11, 2020, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:02:38 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 11, 2020, 11:59:05 AM
The freedom-of-religion nutjobs can wait their turn in the legal channels, after all the medical malpractice suits, contract breaking/wiggling, disputed business practices, are taken care of for the next two decades. Show us on the imaginary friend where the government hurt you, and then we'll await that day in court.

"Freedom" and "ignorance" only come before "responsibility" in a dictionary.

Didn't the governor of Kentucky just mandate that anyone attending a Easter Service will have to 14 day self quarantine?  I'm sure that will go off without a hitch or legal challenge in a Bible Belt state...

Conversely, a lot of religions and individual churches can be very aggressive with persuading their "congregations"  to attend.  I'm not saying I agree I'm just saying that nobody should be surprised that a lot of push back will he coming. 
Louisville Metro has been enjoined on enforcing a county-wide ban on drive-in church services. The church that sued them had been holding drive-in services for a couple of weeks.  Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has allowed drive-in services to continue as long as they follow CDC guidelines. What may be a bigger issue tomorrow is the weather.

What has been particularly bad optics for Mayor Fischer is that LMPD announced they will no longer respond to certain calls a few weeks ago, but is being asked to collect license plate information from people attending church - and that's on top of other scandals in the months prior to that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 06:22:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:47:15 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 12:42:21 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 12:33:47 AM
Most communities are far more spread out in the rest of the state than they are in NYS.
I think you mean NYC, not NYS?
The city is very dense, obviously, but there are not many densely populated areas up here north of the 42nd parallel.  :)
I mean both, the East Coast in general is far more densely populated than anything on the west coast.  You can easily go 100 miles in between towns in California and even further than that in places like Nevada.  I can't think of a single place out East aside from maybe northern Maine that is similarly sparsely populated. 

Speaking of that, does anyone know what the population density of New York State is if New York City is excluded?  I'd be curious to see what the actual figure is.

Parts of New York's Adirondacks are probably similar to Northern Maine in terms of population density. Hamilton County (https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hamilton+County,+NY/@43.6672425,-75.0173718,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x89df17cb6a970eab:0x2d236705dcc7c72f!8m2!3d43.4764406!4d-74.4056612), for example: 4400 people / 1800 sq. miles = 2.4 people per sq. mile.

So to answer your other question:

Area
Total Area: 54,556
Less downstate (using county lines closest to 42nd parallel): ~4,500
Area upstate: 50,050

Population
Total 2010 Population: 19,378,102
Less downstate (using county lines closest to 42nd parallel): 13,298,866
Pop. upstate: 6,079,236

13,298,866 / 4,500 = 2,955.3 people per sq. mile downstate
6,079,236 / 50,050 = 121.4 people per sq. mile upstate

Overall, upstate is quite similar to Kentucky, density-wise. And personally I think it's quite similar to Wisconsin, too. Slightly denser, but very comparable areas and populations, and they're both on the Great Lakes too.  :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 11, 2020, 06:41:46 PM
Quote from: tidecat on April 11, 2020, 05:16:14 PM\Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has allowed drive-in services to continue as long as they follow CDC guidelines.

And he was quite right to allow it. I haven't been to Easter services since 1982, but a drive-in service doesn't seem to pose any viral threat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 11, 2020, 07:29:02 PM
Speaking of Kentucky...

https://kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=GovernorBeshear&prId=122 (https://kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=GovernorBeshear&prId=122)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 11, 2020, 07:46:26 PM
If you want to loot an electronics store like Best Buy, or a Lowe's (since they announced they would be closed on Easter), tomorrow at 11 a.m. would be a good opportunity if you're in Kentucky. The cops are going to be busy cruising church parking lots recording license places of the people there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 11, 2020, 08:12:04 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 11, 2020, 03:59:08 PMI'm surprised it's taken this long for anyone in the NYC tri-state area to even consider it. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and California (which are #3, #4, and #5 respectively in number of cases) made the decision to close schools for the remainder of the year in the last week. The first state to call off school for the rest of the year was Kansas, which I think has less than 500 cases

In Kansas we have 1268 cases as of today.  When Governor Kelly ordered schools to close for the remainder of the year on March 17, we had only 16 confirmed cases and were ten days after discovery of the first case on March 7.  However, we did have known community spread in Wyandotte County as of March 12 and Johnson County as of March 14.

Kelly's school closure order was controversial and resulted in the Legislature passing a joint resolution giving the Legislative Coordinating Council review rights over further gubernatorial orders.  This set the stage for an ongoing fight (the Kansas Supreme Court heard oral arguments earlier today) over a later order extending the 10-person gathering limit (part of the statewide lockdown, which Kelly instituted on March 30) to religious services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 08:55:11 PM
For states with school districts that don't have online classes and communication down to a science (which I assume is most or all states), it seems much too early to be closing schools for the rest of the year. That's over 2 months away in most states!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 11, 2020, 08:58:14 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 08:55:11 PM
For states with school districts that don't have online classes and communication down to a science (which I assume is most or all states), it seems much too early to be closing schools for the rest of the year. That's over 2 months away in most states!
I heard that many states close school at the beginning of June/late May. My school is open till June 19th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Ben114 on April 11, 2020, 09:13:31 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 08:55:11 PM
For states with school districts that don't have online classes and communication down to a science (which I assume is most or all states), it seems much too early to be closing schools for the rest of the year. That's over 2 months away in most states!

I am currently scheduled to return to school on Monday, May 4 (along with the rest of MA schools), but some people are already thinking we'll be out until the fall.

My school has the scheduled last day as Friday, May 29.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 11, 2020, 09:37:11 PM
Michigan ends the school year usually somewhere between June 11th-15th and starts the day after Labor Day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 09:39:28 PM
In other news, 39 states have now reported over 1000 cases. The 11 states that haven't?
Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, West Virginia, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Alaska, and Hawaii.

To say this virus spreads much faster among more dense/urban populations would be an understatement at this point:
-None of those states has a population of more than 2 million.
-They combine to make up just 3.8% of the US population (so 96.2% of the US population lives in a state with 1000+ cases).
-They're 11 of the bottom 14 in population.*
-They're all in the bottom half by population density.
-There are no Top 50 metro areas in any of these states.
-Only Nebraska (Omaha) and Hawaii (Honolulu) are home to a Top 100 (!) metro area.


*Delaware and Rhode Island (the two smallest and among the most dense states), and Idaho (which borders Washington), are the only states in the bottom 14 in population with more than 1000 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 11, 2020, 09:40:46 PM
In my day, school went to around June 1, and that was it. And that was in a district that always had a longer school year than other places did.

A lot of people are pretty sad that there won't be senior prom or a graduation ceremony, but I didn't have any of that anyway. I didn't really want those things though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 11, 2020, 09:44:55 PM
I probably won't be able to go to the lake this year. One of my favorite things about Michigan is the number of inland lakes we have and the Great Lakes as well they are like oceans since you can't see across them. But going up north to the lake is a Michigan tradition.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on April 12, 2020, 12:23:07 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.

Without reading the article, is this data from phone GPS records or is it from network 'ping' records?

('Pinging' allows the network to know what repeater towers are closest to the phone in order to route incoming calls and text messages, the ping signals that the phones reply to are sent out every ten minutes or so.)

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 12:28:41 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 12, 2020, 12:23:07 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.

Without reading the article, is this data from phone GPS records or is it from network 'ping' records?

('Pinging' allows the network to know what repeater towers are closest to the phone in order to route incoming calls and text messages, the ping signals that the phones reply to are sent out every ten minutes or so.)

Mike

That part isn't exactly clear.  The article cites that the Federal Government was also in talks with social media platforms on how their data from cellular use could be used to track movements.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 12, 2020, 12:59:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 10, 2020, 01:04:26 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 10, 2020, 11:49:38 AM
The NYC mass grave is temporary. I guess continuing to provide refrigerated trucks for storage was no longer feasible?
Not sure if  opening up this "temporary" thing would be a good idea. For one, what's the point of moving sealed coffin with pretty decomposed stuff inside?

It is and isn't temporary.

It is in the sense that the families of anyone buried there have the right to have the body exhumed and reburied in a location of their choosing with a more formal grave. Many people, understandably, don't want to go out and deal with that right now, especially considering that you're not allowed to have a funeral ceremony anyway.

But it isn't in the sense that a lot of those bodies will never be claimed by anyone and just left there. Hart Island has long served as New York City's "potter's field" - whenever anyone dies and their family can't afford a more formal burial (or they have no family that cares), that's where they go. Any covid victims whose family situation is such will be left there permanently.

Quote from: ftballfan on April 11, 2020, 03:59:08 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 11, 2020, 03:32:56 PM
So NYC mayor De Blasio decides to join the trend of closing schools for the rest of the year... only for his decision to be voided by NYS governor Cuomo. CT governor Lamont has extended the reopening date to May 20 (1 month), while NJ governor Murphy has dodged the question entirely for now.

I'm surprised it's taken this long for anyone in the NYC tri-state area to even consider it. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and California (which are #3, #4, and #5 respectively in number of cases) made the decision to close schools for the remainder of the year in the last week. The first state to call off school for the rest of the year was Kansas, which I think has less than 500 cases

Cuomo, at least, is taking the tactic of not wanting to make policy more than a few weeks forward at a time. Which is consistent with the guarded stance he's been taking in general.

He's also got an ongoing pissing contest with DiBlasio going back years that you knew was going to find its way into this matter before it was over, and here we go.

In this case, Cuomo is extremely adamant on keeping things coordinated at the state level, and is basically smacking DiBlasio for daring to try to make a decision on his own without coordinating it through the governor's office.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 01:02:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)

Well this isn't like the first time Patriot-Act like restrictions have happened.  During World War II there was arguably far more restrictions and freedoms in addition to everything else (which starts down a dark home with interment camps).   Even the Spanish Flu had some restrictions on state levels like is being seen today. 

At the moment it isn't real clear how the data is being used which in theory could be a non-story if it is just meant to measure the effectiveness of isolation measures.  Either way it does have me missing some of the pre-2009 times when I didn't even own a cell phone.  Constant surveillance used to be something people really worried about but now has become something of a norm with technology.  The main difference is that back 20-30 years ago people were worried a government body would do the tracking when it turned out to be more so run by commercial entities. 

Either way, I do look forward to a time when I can jettison things like a cell post career and go back to a quieter way of living.  I don't think that I would have a lot of gizmos that I do now if I wasn't pressured into getting them by work.  It seems like the communication platforms of modern times spread way too much information way too fast which has been counterproductive in a lot of ways with the current pandemic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on April 12, 2020, 01:50:38 AM
Most schools in SC get out between the end of May and June 7-8. In the Charleston area usually almost every HS graduation is held in our 13,000 seat North Charleston Coliseum or the smaller Performing Arts center attached to it. The districts rent the arena out for a couple days at a time each year to hold the graduations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 12, 2020, 08:13:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 01:02:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)

Well this isn't like the first time Patriot-Act like restrictions have happened.  During World War II there was arguably far more restrictions and freedoms in addition to everything else (which starts down a dark home with interment camps).   Even the Spanish Flu had some restrictions on state levels like is being seen today. 

At the moment it isn't real clear how the data is being used which in theory could be a non-story if it is just meant to measure the effectiveness of isolation measures.  Either way it does have me missing some of the pre-2009 times when I didn't even own a cell phone.  Constant surveillance used to be something people really worried about but now has become something of a norm with technology.  The main difference is that back 20-30 years ago people were worried a government body would do the tracking when it turned out to be more so run by commercial entities. 

Either way, I do look forward to a time when I can jettison things like a cell post career and go back to a quieter way of living.  I don't think that I would have a lot of gizmos that I do now if I wasn't pressured into getting them by work.  It seems like the communication platforms of modern times spread way too much information way too fast which has been counterproductive in a lot of ways with the current pandemic. 


I can't imagine going back to a landline. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 09:04:50 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 12, 2020, 08:13:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 01:02:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)

Well this isn't like the first time Patriot-Act like restrictions have happened.  During World War II there was arguably far more restrictions and freedoms in addition to everything else (which starts down a dark home with interment camps).   Even the Spanish Flu had some restrictions on state levels like is being seen today. 

At the moment it isn't real clear how the data is being used which in theory could be a non-story if it is just meant to measure the effectiveness of isolation measures.  Either way it does have me missing some of the pre-2009 times when I didn't even own a cell phone.  Constant surveillance used to be something people really worried about but now has become something of a norm with technology.  The main difference is that back 20-30 years ago people were worried a government body would do the tracking when it turned out to be more so run by commercial entities. 

Either way, I do look forward to a time when I can jettison things like a cell post career and go back to a quieter way of living.  I don't think that I would have a lot of gizmos that I do now if I wasn't pressured into getting them by work.  It seems like the communication platforms of modern times spread way too much information way too fast which has been counterproductive in a lot of ways with the current pandemic. 


I can't imagine going back to a landline.

I've never been the most bubbly person and did all my computer work on a PC.  It was nice to go outside the house and not be reachable, especially when I went for a hike or drive somewhere.  I would gladly sacrifice the convenience of having information and social media platforms at my finger tips to be left alone.  When people can call you in the middle of places like Yosemite Valley, atop a mountain in the Sierras, and the middle of Death Valley for me that's a problem.  Granted my complaints are mostly work related, I might feel slightly different if I make it to an age where family or friends are the only ones who might try to reach me. 

Then things like this with cell phones pop up and make me want one even less...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 12, 2020, 10:05:47 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 09:04:50 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 12, 2020, 08:13:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 01:02:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)

Well this isn't like the first time Patriot-Act like restrictions have happened.  During World War II there was arguably far more restrictions and freedoms in addition to everything else (which starts down a dark home with interment camps).   Even the Spanish Flu had some restrictions on state levels like is being seen today. 

At the moment it isn't real clear how the data is being used which in theory could be a non-story if it is just meant to measure the effectiveness of isolation measures.  Either way it does have me missing some of the pre-2009 times when I didn't even own a cell phone.  Constant surveillance used to be something people really worried about but now has become something of a norm with technology.  The main difference is that back 20-30 years ago people were worried a government body would do the tracking when it turned out to be more so run by commercial entities. 

Either way, I do look forward to a time when I can jettison things like a cell post career and go back to a quieter way of living.  I don't think that I would have a lot of gizmos that I do now if I wasn't pressured into getting them by work.  It seems like the communication platforms of modern times spread way too much information way too fast which has been counterproductive in a lot of ways with the current pandemic. 


I can't imagine going back to a landline.

I've never been the most bubbly person and did all my computer work on a PC.  It was nice to go outside the house and not be reachable, especially when I went for a hike or drive somewhere.  I would gladly sacrifice the convenience of having information and social media platforms at my finger tips to be left alone.  When people can call you in the middle of places like Yosemite Valley, atop a mountain in the Sierras, and the middle of Death Valley for me that's a problem.  Granted my complaints are mostly work related, I might feel slightly different if I make it to an age where family or friends are the only ones who might try to reach me. 

Then things like this with cell phones pop up and make me want one even less...
That's what the Do Not Disturb feature is for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on April 12, 2020, 10:24:26 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)

People have been exceedingly willing to share every minute personal detail of their lives via social media for over a decade now.  Corporations such as Google* and Facebook know far more about you than the government. 

* I deleted Facebook ages ago, but I admit that I love the Google Location History to be able to look back on roadtrips and be able to see where I went any given day.  So I'm just as much a part of this problem as anyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 11:03:39 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 12, 2020, 10:05:47 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 09:04:50 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 12, 2020, 08:13:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 01:02:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)

Well this isn't like the first time Patriot-Act like restrictions have happened.  During World War II there was arguably far more restrictions and freedoms in addition to everything else (which starts down a dark home with interment camps).   Even the Spanish Flu had some restrictions on state levels like is being seen today. 

At the moment it isn't real clear how the data is being used which in theory could be a non-story if it is just meant to measure the effectiveness of isolation measures.  Either way it does have me missing some of the pre-2009 times when I didn't even own a cell phone.  Constant surveillance used to be something people really worried about but now has become something of a norm with technology.  The main difference is that back 20-30 years ago people were worried a government body would do the tracking when it turned out to be more so run by commercial entities. 

Either way, I do look forward to a time when I can jettison things like a cell post career and go back to a quieter way of living.  I don't think that I would have a lot of gizmos that I do now if I wasn't pressured into getting them by work.  It seems like the communication platforms of modern times spread way too much information way too fast which has been counterproductive in a lot of ways with the current pandemic. 


I can't imagine going back to a landline.

I've never been the most bubbly person and did all my computer work on a PC.  It was nice to go outside the house and not be reachable, especially when I went for a hike or drive somewhere.  I would gladly sacrifice the convenience of having information and social media platforms at my finger tips to be left alone.  When people can call you in the middle of places like Yosemite Valley, atop a mountain in the Sierras, and the middle of Death Valley for me that's a problem.  Granted my complaints are mostly work related, I might feel slightly different if I make it to an age where family or friends are the only ones who might try to reach me. 

Then things like this with cell phones pop up and make me want one even less...
That's what the Do Not Disturb feature is for.

Problem is when you are the person who is also the emergency manager at work like I am.  I'm all good with taking a call on a real emergency like a fire or earthquake.  The problem is that what people think is an actual emergency is far less than what it would have been 10-20 years ago.  Back in the old days if an emergency contact wasn't available you went down a call list.  The call lists still exist but the expectation that you won't be able to answer sometimes has gone out the window. 

I even got into a debate with someone at work recently that there was places in the United States that didn't have cell service, they didn't believe me that was still a thing.  Like I said above, I wouldn't have a cell phone if work hadn't made me get one about a decade ago.  The media aspect of cell phones is kind of a luxury that isn't really necessary to me just as something like cable is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 12, 2020, 11:11:31 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 12, 2020, 08:13:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 01:02:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:47:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 11, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
New Mexico is apparently using cell phone location services to track movements in-state:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/us_world_news/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_0dbdd6d8-4e62-59b7-9793-392943d0fca6.html?fbclid=IwAR28LEnZappW_h_NP6k2iC84sVgA6mriH1HR0VNx58ABqNWeHA3kl8Rkmf4

Never mind the fact that one got off an Interstate Highway that they would likely lose cell service pretty quickly...especially on US 60 of US 180.
Could be a good idea now, but experts have warned about the loss of personal freedoms during crisis that sometimes don't comeback. (see-Patriot act)

Well this isn't like the first time Patriot-Act like restrictions have happened.  During World War II there was arguably far more restrictions and freedoms in addition to everything else (which starts down a dark home with interment camps).   Even the Spanish Flu had some restrictions on state levels like is being seen today. 

At the moment it isn't real clear how the data is being used which in theory could be a non-story if it is just meant to measure the effectiveness of isolation measures.  Either way it does have me missing some of the pre-2009 times when I didn't even own a cell phone.  Constant surveillance used to be something people really worried about but now has become something of a norm with technology.  The main difference is that back 20-30 years ago people were worried a government body would do the tracking when it turned out to be more so run by commercial entities. 

Either way, I do look forward to a time when I can jettison things like a cell post career and go back to a quieter way of living.  I don't think that I would have a lot of gizmos that I do now if I wasn't pressured into getting them by work.  It seems like the communication platforms of modern times spread way too much information way too fast which has been counterproductive in a lot of ways with the current pandemic. 


I can't imagine going back to a landline.
Half of my calls are prearranged conference calls, and are effectively on landline (wifi) anyway.
Half of remaining are "honey, I lost my phone, please call". Two thirds of leftovers can easily be emails.
That leaves desperate calls in stores "I am ready for checkout, where are you?" Without proper alternative. How did we survive shopping without a phone for decades is beyond me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
Count me as someone that prefers to have the totality of the world's knowledge in his pocket over a landline.

And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

And, I see a lot of benefit from using Facebook in just keeping in touch with friends.  The cost of having whatever data known is pretty low.

I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on April 12, 2020, 11:55:19 AM
Quote from: ixnay on April 03, 2020, 07:17:10 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on April 03, 2020, 06:59:35 PM
This kind of makes me wonder, will we ever see the heavy traffic on the highways again? Or even heavy ridership on public transit.

This kind of makes me not wonder but want to link B.J. Thomas's other Bacharach/David hit (50 years ago on the heels of "Raindrops...").   ;-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiLII1skGOU

Not all the lyrics fit the Covid situation accurately but some do.

ixnay

And for those itching for SIP to be lifted, I give you this ditty by a duo who helped make the Monkees the Monkees.  The song is called "Out and About".  Happy Easter/Resurrection Day!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkhBRFtpWRY

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 11:58:14 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
Count me as someone that prefers to have the totality of the world's knowledge in his pocket over a landline.

And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

And, I see a lot of benefit from using Facebook in just keeping in touch with friends.  The cost of having whatever data known is pretty low.

I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.
I kinda feel the same. You hear about the dangers of companies knowing too much, but I'm not totally sure what they are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 12:05:53 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
Count me as someone that prefers to have the totality of the world's knowledge in his pocket over a landline.

And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

And, I see a lot of benefit from using Facebook in just keeping in touch with friends.  The cost of having whatever data known is pretty low.

I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.

In my case the answer is kind of a yes, but is more burnout over a twenty year career which has become incredibly safety oriented.  To that end I'm not exactly worried about social media platforms or really supposed surveillance tracking, it's not like I have criminal activity to hide.  In fact I'd say that constantly updating the Gribblenation Facebook page has been one of the things that has helped stave off boredom for me during this whole pandemic.   My assumption is though at some point I'll be able to be as active as I usually am and things like social media will go back to their proper place low on the totem pole of things to do. 

One thing I have thought about during the pandemic though is how the hell did I get by when I was younger and couldn't afford things like internet much less going places?  College was the only other time I can recall in my adult life where basically I existed just to; exercise, work, study, and go home.  I seem to recall drinking far more back in those days just out of sheer boredom. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 12, 2020, 12:05:59 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
Count me as someone that prefers to have the totality of the world's knowledge in his pocket over a landline.

And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

And, I see a lot of benefit from using Facebook in just keeping in touch with friends.  The cost of having whatever data known is pretty low.

I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.
problem is, sometimes you don't even realize what kind of information van be given out. Think about immunisations they used to find Bin Laden...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:07:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 12, 2020, 12:05:59 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
Count me as someone that prefers to have the totality of the world's knowledge in his pocket over a landline.

And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

And, I see a lot of benefit from using Facebook in just keeping in touch with friends.  The cost of having whatever data known is pretty low.

I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.
problem is, sometimes you don't even realize what kind of information van be given out. Think about immunisations they used to find Bin Laden...
Yeah, I'm not a terrorist...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on April 12, 2020, 12:33:58 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 12, 2020, 12:07:21 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 12, 2020, 12:05:59 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
Count me as someone that prefers to have the totality of the world's knowledge in his pocket over a landline.

And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

And, I see a lot of benefit from using Facebook in just keeping in touch with friends.  The cost of having whatever data known is pretty low.

I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.
problem is, sometimes you don't even realize what kind of information van be given out. Think about immunisations they used to find Bin Laden...
Yeah, I'm not a terrorist...

The potential problem is what if someone out there decides to classify you as one due to your particular political opinions? 

Probably won't happen, but the world is getting weird in 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 12:35:46 PM
Immunisations were used to catch Bin Laden?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 12, 2020, 12:48:59 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 12:35:46 PM
Immunisations were used to catch Bin Laden?
Fake vaccinations, to make things worse.
CIA used vaccination as a way to collect DNA samples from kids - needles were collected and blood residue analyzed instead of disposal on the spot. Once they found close relatives of Bin Laden (and looks like he had a lot),  that area came under the microscope as possible family residence.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vaccinations-osama-bin-ladens-dna

Another example was when 23andme data allowed to identify close relative of someone wanted for an old crime.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/26/17288532/golden-state-killer-east-area-rapist-genealogy-websites-dna-genetic-investigation
While what the guy did means he deserves no mercy, overall situation is equally interesting.

This is not cell phone related, but these situations struck me as very unforeseen outcomes of data collection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 12, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Well when you retire and you don't want to be disturbed, just turn off your phone.  Or don't take it with you.  If you want to have just a landline, then go for it.  But there are alternatives between landline and full, in your face service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 12, 2020, 02:26:58 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AMCount me as someone that prefers to have the totality of the world's knowledge in his pocket over a landline.

And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

And, I see a lot of benefit from using Facebook in just keeping in touch with friends.  The cost of having whatever data known is pretty low.

I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.

Speaking for myself, I am very unresponsive to advertising in general, and targeting does not make it any better.  Since my initial strategy is to free-ride on other people's ad support, the marketing ecosystem will always look to enact business cases that engage people who respond to ads (whatever the underlying tech platform is) before it moves on to people like me.

I do have a Facebook account and regularly check it to stay in touch with friends and family.  However, long ago I largely got out of the business of generating my own content for it.  By now, I suspect a large share of those who use Facebook have come to realize that it is healthier to regard their lives as separate from their presentations of them on Facebook (or indeed any other social media platform).

I don't know that I am especially vocal about privacy concerns, or that I have an inflated sense of my own importance or significance, but what I do see is that social media platforms rely on one-sided contractual relationships.  I am a small and not especially well-off player, while each of the major platforms has a market capitalization in the billions of dollars.  I also know from my own experiences writing downloader scripts that they can scrape a considerable amount of psychologically relevant information about you just by looking at how fast you type stuff in text entry boxes, and they can also take advantage of third-party data brokerage to build a much richer and more elaborate profile of you than is directly available from any information you give them.  So I have always been sympathetic to arguments that there should be checks on exploitation of these technological possibilities to protect our right to privacy and to integrity of the person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 12, 2020, 03:20:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 11, 2020, 08:58:14 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 11, 2020, 08:55:11 PM
For states with school districts that don't have online classes and communication down to a science (which I assume is most or all states), it seems much too early to be closing schools for the rest of the year. That's over 2 months away in most states!
I heard that many states close school at the beginning of June/late May. My school is open till June 19th.
My school district is one of the early-ending districts, and we hardly get any snow days (we had 3, and at least one was for a storm that never happened). I only have 39 days of school left (and this includes weekends).
I had "early-closing" before the edit when ironically my school district is always the last to close, whatever the reason may be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 12, 2020, 03:40:24 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 12, 2020, 12:59:25 AM
Cuomo, at least, is taking the tactic of not wanting to make policy more than a few weeks forward at a time.
Which... seems like the pretty obvious thing to do. Info/data collection and reporting has been and will be lagging through this entire crisis, and as long as that's the case, how could you possibly expect to plan long-term at this point?

Quote from: Duke87 on April 12, 2020, 12:59:25 AM
In this case, Cuomo is extremely adamant on keeping things coordinated at the state level, and is basically smacking DiBlasio for daring to try to make a decision on his own without coordinating it through the governor's office.
NYC being forced to acknowledge they're part of a much larger state and not orbiting in their own solar system?
Snarky as it sounds, that's a very welcome development that's been a heck of a long time coming!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 12, 2020, 04:02:07 PM
YMMV on how states handle local governments - Iowa for example does not allow locals to set restrictions.  Dubuque County wanted to order up a stay-at-home.  They would have gotten it nixed.  (The state governor refuses to order one)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 12, 2020, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 12, 2020, 04:02:07 PMYMMV on how states handle local governments - Iowa for example does not allow locals to set restrictions.  Dubuque County wanted to order up a stay-at-home.  They would have gotten it nixed.  (The state governor refuses to order one)

In Kansas, the county health officer can order quarantines, lockdowns, staying at home, etc., but our county stay-at-home order is currently overriden by a gubernatorial executive order mandating a statewide lockdown and forbidding counties from enforcing orders of their own that are less or more restrictive while it is in effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 04:20:12 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 12, 2020, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 12, 2020, 04:02:07 PMYMMV on how states handle local governments - Iowa for example does not allow locals to set restrictions.  Dubuque County wanted to order up a stay-at-home.  They would have gotten it nixed.  (The state governor refuses to order one)

In Kansas, the county health officer can order quarantines, lockdowns, staying at home, etc., but our county stay-at-home order is currently overriden by a gubernatorial executive order mandating a statewide lockdown and forbidding counties from enforcing orders of their own that are less or more restrictive while it is in effect.

It's all over the place in California.  The state has orders but so do the counties and cities, to that end the local authorities seem to be more on the draconian side at this point with threats of actual police enforcement. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

This is actually much easier to enforce than one might expect. If state X is under such a restriction and borders state Y, state Y authorities can easily identify travelers from state X by spotting cars with state X license plates. Mass transit services between states X and Y can be halted, if they have not been already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 05:46:16 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

This is actually much easier to enforce than one might expect. If state X is under such a restriction and borders state Y, state Y authorities can easily identify travelers from state X by spotting cars with state X license plates. Mass transit services between states X and Y can be halted, if they have not been already.

Good luck staffing that with guards  at every state line at every possible state entrance.  That would be a drain on resources for emergency services that could used to do actual work that is necessary right now.  The amount of manpower it would take to pull over, ticket, question, and possible even arrest people with out of state tags would be essentially impossible...maybe even the scenario of actual martial law. 

Besides, lots of "essential workers"  cross state lines every day.  How do you account for those people getting to/from work?  If you end up cutting people off you take away resources and put only more in potential unemployment.  Total non-starter and unrealistic IMO even with how things are going presently.  More so there isn't an unlimited amount of policing power out there that seems to be a popular notion. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:53:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 05:46:16 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

This is actually much easier to enforce than one might expect. If state X is under such a restriction and borders state Y, state Y authorities can easily identify travelers from state X by spotting cars with state X license plates. Mass transit services between states X and Y can be halted, if they have not been already.

Good luck staffing that with guards  at every state line at every possible state entrance.  That would be a drain on resources for emergency services that could used to do actual work that is necessary right now.  The amount of manpower it would take to pull over, ticket, question, and possible even arrest people with out of state tags would be essentially impossible...maybe even the scenario of actual martial law. 

Besides, lots of "essential workers"  cross state lines every day.  How do you account for those people getting to/from work?  If you end up cutting people off you take away resources and put only more in potential unemployment.  Total non-starter and unrealistic IMO even with how things are going presently.  More so there isn't an unlimited amount of policing power out there that seems to be a popular notion.
Maybe not every crossing... Maybe only the interstates. But if they discourage out-of-state travel (even after other guidelines are lifted), I wonder how many people would try wheedling around the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 06:00:28 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:53:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 05:46:16 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

This is actually much easier to enforce than one might expect. If state X is under such a restriction and borders state Y, state Y authorities can easily identify travelers from state X by spotting cars with state X license plates. Mass transit services between states X and Y can be halted, if they have not been already.

Good luck staffing that with guards  at every state line at every possible state entrance.  That would be a drain on resources for emergency services that could used to do actual work that is necessary right now.  The amount of manpower it would take to pull over, ticket, question, and possible even arrest people with out of state tags would be essentially impossible...maybe even the scenario of actual martial law. 

Besides, lots of "essential workers"  cross state lines every day.  How do you account for those people getting to/from work?  If you end up cutting people off you take away resources and put only more in potential unemployment.  Total non-starter and unrealistic IMO even with how things are going presently.  More so there isn't an unlimited amount of policing power out there that seems to be a popular notion.
Maybe not every crossing... Maybe only the interstates. But if they discourage out-of-state travel (even after other guidelines are lifted), I wonder how many people would try wheedling around the rules.

If that was done there would still be a need to let essential workers and freight through.  If the freight couldn't use the primary highways it would cause food and supply shortages all over the place.  There would need to be a massive amount of logistics on determine who is "essential"  and still a crap ton of policing power to enforce it.  What's the point of sending so much emergency personnel into endeavors like that when it clearly isn't necessary to do?  Remember, there is a reason they say "flatten the curve"  instead of "stopping"  the virus.  Grinding everything to a full halt would be likely far worse consequences than staying the current course.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 06:02:39 PM
Then again I'm hearing a lot of comparisons right now to the Great Plague of London. Back then if someone in your family got sick you might get written off by association and sealed in your home to die.  Comparisons like that in a modern context aren't even close to one-to-one. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 11:09:35 PM
Apparently a car club tried to organize a cruise down Kings Canyon Road and Clovis Avenue tonight.  My wife saw several of the cruisers getting pulled over by Fresno PD on the way home tonight from the hospital.  The mayor announced the City Stay At Home order as mandatory a couple days ago and threatened police enforcement...guess that's a thing now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 13, 2020, 01:55:25 AM
From an AP article in the Philly Inquirer..

https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/coronavirus-covid-state-highway-projects-halted-less-driving-20200412.html

"Reduced vehicle traffic from stay-at-home orders imperils road funding across U.S."

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CtrlAltDel on April 13, 2020, 03:52:49 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 12, 2020, 02:26:58 PM
Speaking for myself, I am very unresponsive to advertising in general,

This is veering way off topic, but out of idle curiosity, how do you know this is true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:25:30 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.
All I got to ask anyone is how exactly do you enforce that? Saginaw isn't up North but it's on the fringes of being up north.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:28:47 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:25:30 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.
All I got to ask anyone is how exactly do you enforce that? Saginaw isn't up North but it's on the fringes of being up north.
Don't know.  Ask the gov.

Makes as much sense to me as the ban on buying vegetable seeds.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:35:14 AM


Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:28:47 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:25:30 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.
All I got to ask anyone is how exactly do you enforce that? Saginaw isn't up North but it's on the fringes of being up north.
Don't know.  Ask the gov.

Makes as much sense to me as the ban on buying vegetable seeds.

A lot of stuff she has said makes no sense to me. I heard there is a ban on buying paint now too. Gretchen is one of two governors I'm not a fan of, the other being the fatass in Illinois.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
A helpful regulation in theory, but nigh-unenforceable. I don't know if this is one of those questions all Michiganers should know the answer to, but how north is "up north"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 13, 2020, 08:02:15 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
A helpful regulation in theory, but nigh-unenforceable. I don't know if this is one of those questions all Michiganers should know the answer to, but how north is "up north"?

At least beyond Lansing.  I'm from the Detroit area originally and we have a family cabin "up north"  on Grand Traverse Bay. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 08:13:54 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
A helpful regulation in theory, but nigh-unenforceable. I don't know if this is one of those questions all Michiganers should know the answer to, but how north is "up north"?
It depends on who you ask. A poll about two years ago from WDIV-TV in Detroit gave 5 of the most popular answers.

1) Zilwaukee Bridge. I only live about 7 miles from that bridge and don't think I consider that the starting point myself.

2) West Branch. A small city about 60 miles north of the Zilwaukee Bridge which is a major stopping off point for trips up north. Lots of restaurants and stores for an I-75 exit in northern Michigan.

3) Draw a line between Flint and Grand Rapids. This is the furthest south I have ever heard of being the southern most point of up north. I'd say draw that line between Bay City and Ludington which won't be a perfectly straight line but it'll be close.

4) Past the tip of the thumb. This one is probably the most logical choice.

5) The Mighty Mac. This choice is too far north for me, by the time you get to the bridge you've already been up north for quite awhile.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 08:17:20 AM
I say we draw the line using a state highway. Let's use M-46. It crosses the state from east to west completely and some areas in the western part of the state as far south as M-46 already have that up north feel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 08:27:41 AM
On the topic of restrictions on interstate travel, China has had checkpoints at the borders of every province or municipality, even before the outbreak started. Like, if you wanted to travel by road from Shanghai municipality to Jiangsu province to the west, you'd have to go through a checkpoint, which doubles as a tollbooth on expressways. I'm not saying that this is a feasible idea for America, but it just goes to show how China might have the outbreak one step ahead of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 13, 2020, 09:24:04 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:35:14 AM


Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:28:47 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:25:30 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.
All I got to ask anyone is how exactly do you enforce that? Saginaw isn't up North but it's on the fringes of being up north.
Don't know.  Ask the gov.

Makes as much sense to me as the ban on buying vegetable seeds.

A lot of stuff she has said makes no sense to me. I heard there is a ban on buying paint now too. Gretchen is one of two governors I'm not a fan of, the other being the fatass in Illinois.


Nice.

Anyway I know people on the other side of the aisle who believe the Illinois governor is performing very well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on April 13, 2020, 09:39:08 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.

Ontonagon or Watersmeet . . . decisions, decisions....

:pan:

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 13, 2020, 09:55:20 AM
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 13, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:53:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 05:46:16 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

This is actually much easier to enforce than one might expect. If state X is under such a restriction and borders state Y, state Y authorities can easily identify travelers from state X by spotting cars with state X license plates. Mass transit services between states X and Y can be halted, if they have not been already.

Good luck staffing that with guards  at every state line at every possible state entrance.  That would be a drain on resources for emergency services that could used to do actual work that is necessary right now.  The amount of manpower it would take to pull over, ticket, question, and possible even arrest people with out of state tags would be essentially impossible...maybe even the scenario of actual martial law. 

Besides, lots of "essential workers"  cross state lines every day.  How do you account for those people getting to/from work?  If you end up cutting people off you take away resources and put only more in potential unemployment.  Total non-starter and unrealistic IMO even with how things are going presently.  More so there isn't an unlimited amount of policing power out there that seems to be a popular notion.
Maybe not every crossing... Maybe only the interstates. But if they discourage out-of-state travel (even after other guidelines are lifted), I wonder how many people would try wheedling around the rules.


Not only is this impractical, but it is is also more dangerous.  So then people are going to get off the highway and find a two lane crossing, stopping in small towns, etc.

And what do you do about the essential worker who works in Illinois but lives in Wisconsin?  I drove to O'Hare (from Wisconsin) to pick up a family member returning from overseas.  How do you manage this?  And my guess is that most of the unnecessary travel is not happening across state lines, but locally. 

It would be an incredibly wasteful use of resources.  The best thing to do is to encourage people to stay home.  Not to set up roadblocks at state lines. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 13, 2020, 10:36:38 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 13, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:53:31 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 12, 2020, 05:46:16 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

This is actually much easier to enforce than one might expect. If state X is under such a restriction and borders state Y, state Y authorities can easily identify travelers from state X by spotting cars with state X license plates. Mass transit services between states X and Y can be halted, if they have not been already.

Good luck staffing that with guards  at every state line at every possible state entrance.  That would be a drain on resources for emergency services that could used to do actual work that is necessary right now.  The amount of manpower it would take to pull over, ticket, question, and possible even arrest people with out of state tags would be essentially impossible...maybe even the scenario of actual martial law. 

Besides, lots of "essential workers"  cross state lines every day.  How do you account for those people getting to/from work?  If you end up cutting people off you take away resources and put only more in potential unemployment.  Total non-starter and unrealistic IMO even with how things are going presently.  More so there isn't an unlimited amount of policing power out there that seems to be a popular notion.
Maybe not every crossing... Maybe only the interstates. But if they discourage out-of-state travel (even after other guidelines are lifted), I wonder how many people would try wheedling around the rules.


Not only is this impractical, but it is is also more dangerous.  So then people are going to get off the highway and find a two lane crossing, stopping in small towns, etc.

And what do you do about the essential worker who works in Illinois but lives in Wisconsin?  I drove to O'Hare (from Wisconsin) to pick up a family member returning from overseas.  How do you manage this?  And my guess is that most of the unnecessary travel is not happening across state lines, but locally. 

It would be an incredibly wasteful use of resources.  The best thing to do is to encourage people to stay home.  Not to set up roadblocks at state lines. 
I agree that roadblocks would be a wasteful use of resources, especially considering there are likely hundreds of roads (or even thousands in some cases) that cross state lines. The two areas that I've heard of doing roadblocks (Dare County, NC and Monroe County, FL) have two things that make them unique: (1) There's one or two roads in or out and (2) These areas have used roadblocks before (during hurricanes)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 10:36:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
A helpful regulation in theory, but nigh-unenforceable. I don't know if this is one of those questions all Michiganers should know the answer to, but how north is "up north"?
My answer always was where you start to see the white bark birch trees - native, not those planted in someone's yard.

M-46 as suggested somewhat works, except it puts most of Saginaw and all of Bay City and Midland "up north", and I disagree with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 11:20:53 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 13, 2020, 09:24:04 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:35:14 AM


Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:28:47 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:25:30 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.
All I got to ask anyone is how exactly do you enforce that? Saginaw isn't up North but it's on the fringes of being up north.
Don't know.  Ask the gov.

Makes as much sense to me as the ban on buying vegetable seeds.

A lot of stuff she has said makes no sense to me. I heard there is a ban on buying paint now too. Gretchen is one of two governors I'm not a fan of, the other being the fatass in Illinois.


Nice.

Anyway I know people on the other side of the aisle who believe the Illinois governor is performing very well.
I don't know how he's doing to a tee but I just never liked the guy from day one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 11:28:36 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 10:36:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
A helpful regulation in theory, but nigh-unenforceable. I don't know if this is one of those questions all Michiganers should know the answer to, but how north is "up north"?
My answer always was where you start to see the white bark birch trees - native, not those planted in someone's yard.

M-46 as suggested somewhat works, except it puts most of Saginaw and all of Bay City and Midland "up north", and I disagree with that.
The line could be sent a little north, east of M-66 perhaps taking it east again when it crosses M-61 but that might be slightly too far north as it would cut Wixom Lake out. Saginaw, Midland and Bay City aren't up north to me either and none of the Thumb feels like up north except maybe along the northern rim of the Thumb on the lakeshore. Mount Pleasant doesn't have an up north feel to it either but Clare kind of does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 13, 2020, 11:40:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 11:20:53 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 13, 2020, 09:24:04 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:35:14 AM


Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:28:47 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:25:30 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:23:49 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 07:21:31 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
What about if you're from Saginaw?
You consider Saginaw "Up North"?  Anyway, it applies to the whole state.  You have to pick a residence and stay there.  So technically someone from Marquette can't go to a vacation home in Saginaw either, no matter how unlikely that example.
All I got to ask anyone is how exactly do you enforce that? Saginaw isn't up North but it's on the fringes of being up north.
Don't know.  Ask the gov.

Makes as much sense to me as the ban on buying vegetable seeds.

A lot of stuff she has said makes no sense to me. I heard there is a ban on buying paint now too. Gretchen is one of two governors I'm not a fan of, the other being the fatass in Illinois.


Nice.

Anyway I know people on the other side of the aisle who believe the Illinois governor is performing very well.
I don't know how he's doing to a tee but I just never liked the guy from day one.

Oh.

So maybe in a thread about a specific topic you should do some research on what he has done and/or hasn't done, before you make a statement about him while also making fun of his weight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on April 13, 2020, 11:49:42 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
And, I prefer advertisers knowing enough about me to tailor advertisements to me.  Much better than having irrelevant stuff thrown at me.

While it feels pathetic when it's repetitively wrong (mortgages, dental implants, and bowel cleansing), I do have to admit...it's actually quite funny when the tailored advertisements get it so very wrong (not sure why they think I'm into keeping pigeons or building my own fireworks platforms, as examples). I guess I'm winning the war on my own misinformation about correct information.

Quote from: Rothman on April 12, 2020, 11:52:47 AM
I often wonder if those that are most vocal about privacy concerns are those who struggle to find importance or significance in life.  Assigning value to personal data is a way of feeling more significant.

I don't know if there's a direct correlation to that - seems like simplistic pop psychology - after all, one's private data (that is, one individual) is probably worth less than one cent. Oh, we all want privacy and can't stand someone managing one's identity in a way, and that's something we can all agree on. The overall financial aspect of your online identity coming down to the value of a used coupon is really what makes people really angry, and then re-sold again and again to the tune of a dollar or two. Sadly, one is worth more as a statistical value against other data and trends, than as few random dust mite's droppings of data.

If people are smart about managing their online identity; not assigning a place to everything they do and see in the moment, careful not to give out too much information, not telling the world about every little thing they buy, there's not much to be gained nor lost. If the plethora of useless emails, texts, and is anything to go by, they're honestly not getting any better about figuring me out.

That's not to say that a lot of information isn't compiled about us but re-assembly of all your information (even if it genuinely is stored in massive data warehouses) might take a while, as it's created in larger batches than can probably be sorted. That might get weird in the next decade or so; a more-genuine/more-disingenuous avatar of ourselves exists as online storage because that's who we are now, but it's probably always going to be distorted.

tl;dr I can see where someone doesn't want a part of it, but I don't think my data is specifically valuable compared to what I get out of it / put into it for 1-5 minutes a day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 13, 2020, 01:50:21 PM
Quote from: CtrlAltDel on April 13, 2020, 03:52:49 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 12, 2020, 02:26:58 PM
Speaking for myself, I am very unresponsive to advertising in general . . .

This is veering way off topic, but out of idle curiosity, how do you know this is true?

The last time I got into something as a result of a Facebook ad, it was Outlander back in autumn 2018.

I've also developed an understanding of the kind of advertising that I find hard to resist.  For example, I continue to use Pennzoil Platinum (a full-synthetic oil) for the family cars not because I have checked the specs recently, but rather because back in 2015 Pennzoil was selling it with visuals of clean and new-looking piston skirts following Sequence IIIG tests.  Sequence IIIG uses a 3.8 L GM V6 and no car I have ever owned has had one (the closest I have come is 3.0 L V6 engines in a 1986 Nissan Maxima and a 2005 Toyota Camry).  It also involves running the engine nonstop at 3000 RPM for hours; there is no way I could ever do that in top gear on the public highway.  But, even though I would likely experience no noticeable sludging or performance loss over 20+ years if I used cheaper conventional oils, the visuals of clean metal still light up my brain.  (It helps that I did have experience of using Mobil 1 with the Maxima back in the nineties and seeing one of the camshafts, which was visible through the oil filler hole, go from dark brown to a pale gold color over a few tens of thousands of miles.)  This is the kind of material which, although it has clearly been massaged for marketing purposes, doesn't make it into Facebook videos or pay-per-click ads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 13, 2020, 01:53:44 PM
It's worth noting that there's a lot more to tracking than meets the eye.  Most websites don't just host dumb banner ads anymore - they're part of ad networks, and one of the things the advertising companies do is use things like tracking cookies and other technologies to build a profile about you that includes things like every website you visit, everything you search for on Google (who is actually one of the biggest businesses in the advertising business, especially after the DoubleClick acquisition), your Facebook (which is known to build shadow profiles for advertising purposes even for people who don't have accounts on the website) activity, etc.  This is why so much of targeted advertising consists of things people have already bought.  This information is then regularly traded among the companies.

This should be concerning for anyone.  It's amazing what can be reconstructed from data.  Know a few search terms, correlate location history to doctor's offices, etc., and you can figure out what medical conditions a person has.  Even "anonymized" data can often be tied back to a specific person with a small amount of work.  Imagine what would happen if one of these companies had a data breach.  Moreover, you don't have 4th Amendment protections on the data these companies have.  The government can ask Google for all the information they have on you and aren't even required to tell you about it (in fact, they can specifically order Google not to tell you).  If you wouldn't want the government collecting the data, you shouldn't want private companies to do so either, since it's basically the same thing these days, especially with how many private companies the NSA works with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 13, 2020, 01:55:54 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 13, 2020, 01:53:44 PM
It's worth noting that there's a lot more to tracking than meets the eye.  Most websites don't just host dumb banner ads anymore - they're part of ad networks, and one of the things the advertising companies do is use things like tracking cookies and other technologies to build a profile about you that includes things like every website you visit, everything you search for on Google (who is actually one of the biggest businesses in the advertising business, especially after the DoubleClick acquisition), your Facebook (which is known to build shadow profiles for advertising purposes even for people who don't have accounts on the website) activity, etc.  This is why so much of targeted advertising consists of things people have already bought.  This information is then regularly traded among the companies.

This should be concerning for anyone.  It's amazing what can be reconstructed from data.  Know a few search terms, correlate location history to doctor's offices, etc., and you can figure out what medical conditions a person has.  Even "anonymized" data can often be tied back to a specific person with a small amount of work.  Imagine what would happen if one of these companies had a data breach.  Moreover, you don't have 4th Amendment protections on the data these companies have.  The government can ask Google for all the information they have on you and aren't even required to tell you about it (in fact, they can specifically order Google not to tell you).  If you wouldn't want the government collecting the data, you shouldn't want private companies to do so either, since it's basically the same thing these days, especially with how many private companies the NSA works with.

The alternative is to have pretty much every website cost money to join or even read. (Wikipedia would be an exception.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 13, 2020, 02:00:13 PM
Not necessarily.  Non-targeted advertising exists (and given that personally targeted advertising has always been more of a promise in effectiveness than a reality, I would think it wouldn't be as much less profitable than one would think), and then there's the middle of the road path by knowing your site's audience and targeting your advertising to your demographic, like what's done on twit.tv.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 13, 2020, 02:15:41 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 13, 2020, 01:55:54 PM
The alternative is to have pretty much every website cost money to join or even read. (Wikipedia would be an exception.)

Why single out Wiki? They're still advertising - for donations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 13, 2020, 08:23:17 PM
The New York Times has become effectively paywalled, which is unfortunate, because they're usually great with data journalism and often have fascinating visuals and interactives, like this one (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html?mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=REGIWALL#7.80/42.83/-77.78).  But I do wish people were more cognizant of the paywall when linking to it... that is, unless it's just me with the paywall problem. I've almost started to think so, with the volume of links to the NYT vs. other known paywall sites. :meh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 13, 2020, 08:25:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 13, 2020, 08:23:17 PM
The New York Times has become effectively paywalled, which is unfortunate, because they're usually great with data journalism and often have fascinating visuals and interactives, like this one (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html?mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=REGIWALL#7.80/42.83/-77.78).  But I do wish people were more cognizant of the paywall when linking to it... that is, unless it's just me with the paywall problem. I've almost started to think so, with the volume of links to the NYT vs. other known paywall sites. :meh:

The New York Times has made all of their coronavirus information free.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 13, 2020, 11:42:52 PM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 11:28:36 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 10:36:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
A helpful regulation in theory, but nigh-unenforceable. I don't know if this is one of those questions all Michiganers should know the answer to, but how north is "up north"?
My answer always was where you start to see the white bark birch trees - native, not those planted in someone's yard.

M-46 as suggested somewhat works, except it puts most of Saginaw and all of Bay City and Midland "up north", and I disagree with that.
The line could be sent a little north, east of M-66 perhaps taking it east again when it crosses M-61 but that might be slightly too far north as it would cut Wixom Lake out. Saginaw, Midland and Bay City aren't up north to me either and none of the Thumb feels like up north except maybe along the northern rim of the Thumb on the lakeshore. Mount Pleasant doesn't have an up north feel to it either but Clare kind of does.
Let me solve the "Up North" and Michigan problem.
If the place is located north of the Indiana Toll Road, or the Ohio Turnpike, then the location is considered "Up North" by 3/4th of the United States.

You're welcome from the state that actually owns Michigan. :-P
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 13, 2020, 11:53:04 PM
SD's Governor has taken the route of inaction, thus letting the infection spread in her state when it is now plateauing or declining in others.  WTG.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on April 14, 2020, 07:48:44 AM
Quote from: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 13, 2020, 11:42:52 PM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 13, 2020, 11:28:36 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 10:36:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 13, 2020, 07:52:45 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 13, 2020, 07:20:46 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 12, 2020, 05:37:20 PM
If you ask me, I don't really see what's wrong with restricting interstate travel in a time like this. Sure, it's technically unconstitutional, but the Constitution can be bent sometimes in times of emergency.

Michigan has done the exact opposite.

If you're from Detroit (or any other downstate city) you can't go to your cabin "Up North".  But if you're from Chicago it's perfectly OK.
A helpful regulation in theory, but nigh-unenforceable. I don't know if this is one of those questions all Michiganers should know the answer to, but how north is "up north"?
My answer always was where you start to see the white bark birch trees - native, not those planted in someone's yard.

M-46 as suggested somewhat works, except it puts most of Saginaw and all of Bay City and Midland "up north", and I disagree with that.
The line could be sent a little north, east of M-66 perhaps taking it east again when it crosses M-61 but that might be slightly too far north as it would cut Wixom Lake out. Saginaw, Midland and Bay City aren't up north to me either and none of the Thumb feels like up north except maybe along the northern rim of the Thumb on the lakeshore. Mount Pleasant doesn't have an up north feel to it either but Clare kind of does.
Let me solve the "Up North" and Michigan problem.
If the place is located north of the Indiana Toll Road, or the Ohio Turnpike, then the location is considered "Up North" by 3/4th of the United States.

You're welcome from the state that actually owns Michigan. :-P
That isn't solving it in the least bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 14, 2020, 12:21:23 PM
We are at Arlington National Cemetery for my father's inurnment this afternoon. First time I've ever done this for a funeral (Arlington specifically requests attendees cover their faces right now). Hope I never have to again.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200414/0cd7eb0f7a3f20a695f5d11648742172.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 14, 2020, 01:54:52 PM
We might have to be dealing with social distancing till 2022... :(
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/some-social-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022-to-keep-coronavirus-in-check-new-study-says/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 14, 2020, 01:54:52 PM
We might have to be dealing with social distancing till 2022... :(
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/some-social-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022-to-keep-coronavirus-in-check-new-study-says/
Well fuck I'm NOT doing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 02:06:04 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 14, 2020, 01:54:52 PM
We might have to be dealing with social distancing till 2022... :(
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/some-social-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022-to-keep-coronavirus-in-check-new-study-says/
Well fuck I'm NOT doing that.

It will probably be on/off as local epidemics break out.  The 1918 Spanish Flu had outbreaks into 1920 as an example of how common flare ups are during pandemics.  I kind of sense the tolerance level of the strictest restrictions is waning given how many states seem to be creating collations on when to reopen facets of society. 

What I would be really interested in this this supposed "serum test"  for antibodies which in theory could be a "get out of pandemic card"  for some if reinfection isn't really a thing or low risk.  Granted that's far off if ever and you don't hear it talked much anymore. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 14, 2020, 02:17:33 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 14, 2020, 01:54:52 PM
We might have to be dealing with social distancing till 2022... :(
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/some-social-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022-to-keep-coronavirus-in-check-new-study-says/
Well fuck I'm NOT doing that.

Your funeral :p ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 02:21:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 02:06:04 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 14, 2020, 01:54:52 PM
We might have to be dealing with social distancing till 2022... :(
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/some-social-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022-to-keep-coronavirus-in-check-new-study-says/
Well fuck I'm NOT doing that.

It will probably be on/off as local epidemics break out.  The 1918 Spanish Flu had outbreaks into 1920 as an example of how common flare ups are during pandemics.  I kind of sense the tolerance level of the strictest restrictions is waning given how many states seem to be creating collations on when to reopen facets of society. 

What I would be really interested in this this supposed "serum test"  for antibodies which in theory could be a "get out of pandemic card"  for some if reinfection isn't really a thing or low risk.  Granted that's far off if ever and you don't hear it talked much anymore.
Well if it's on/off I can survive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 02:26:30 PM
In somewhat related virus boredom my wife and I are looking for a puppy to adopt.  "If"  we find one it will be the third dog in the house.  The short list of names we've come up with so far are as follows:

-  Virus
-  Covid
-  Cory
-  Corona
-  Rona
-  Coco
-  Pando

I'm leaning towards Virus since it kind mixes well with one of our dogs who is named Monster.  Some names that got a hard no were; Lysol, Teepee, and Mask. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 14, 2020, 02:37:40 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 14, 2020, 01:54:52 PM
We might have to be dealing with SOME social distancing till 2022... :(
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/some-social-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022-to-keep-coronavirus-in-check-new-study-says/
Fixed that for you - an important keyword.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 14, 2020, 02:40:46 PM
This is also worst case scenario stuff.

If people want to continue to reject this and thumb their nose at it, we'll have to do it longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 14, 2020, 02:41:43 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 14, 2020, 02:40:46 PM
This is also worst case scenario stuff.

If people want to continue to reject this and thumb their nose at it, we'll have to do it longer.
Worst case scenario stuff makes for good headlines
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 02:47:58 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 14, 2020, 02:41:43 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 14, 2020, 02:40:46 PM
This is also worst case scenario stuff.

If people want to continue to reject this and thumb their nose at it, we'll have to do it longer.
Worst case scenario stuff makes for good headlines

Good news doesn't keep people watching or reading.  Completely accurate headline synopsis usually doesn't get many people to click.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 14, 2020, 03:02:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 02:47:58 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 14, 2020, 02:41:43 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 14, 2020, 02:40:46 PM
This is also worst case scenario stuff.

If people want to continue to reject this and thumb their nose at it, we'll have to do it longer.
Worst case scenario stuff makes for good headlines

Good news doesn't keep people watching or reading.  Completely accurate headline synopsis usually doesn't get many people to click.

I think a best case scenario would also sell headlines (example: "Previously estimated to be 200K, estimates for the number of deaths are down to 30K; we're now in the last quarter of the pandemic."). An average case would not, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 14, 2020, 03:16:11 PM
Just remember 1918 (?) when there was a second wave after everyone thought the crisis was over.   I don't like being cooped up (though I have lots of projects I could work on), but I'm sticking out to the best of my abilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 03:18:38 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 14, 2020, 03:02:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 02:47:58 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 14, 2020, 02:41:43 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 14, 2020, 02:40:46 PM
This is also worst case scenario stuff.

If people want to continue to reject this and thumb their nose at it, we'll have to do it longer.
Worst case scenario stuff makes for good headlines

Good news doesn't keep people watching or reading.  Completely accurate headline synopsis usually doesn't get many people to click.

I think a best case scenario would also sell headlines (example: "Previously estimated to be 200K, estimates for the number of deaths are down to 30K; we're now in the last quarter of the pandemic."). An average case would not, though.

Yes, but it couldn't sustain a news cycle for long.  The topic would die and the next big thing to report on would be found. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 14, 2020, 03:20:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 14, 2020, 03:18:38 PM


Yes, but it couldn't sustain a news cycle for long.  The topic would die and the next big thing to report on would be found. 

"We all know that crap is king"...(Don Henley)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe

The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 07:15:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe

The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.
You sure about that? Sounds like a conspiracy theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:16:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 07:15:10 PMYou sure about that? Sounds like a conspiracy theory.

I lost faith in our public officials a long, long time ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 14, 2020, 07:55:09 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe

The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.


It's not cratering dramatically. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 08:06:34 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe

The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.
I can see alot improving in the years to come.

-more funding for science, medical & health

-respect for public official jobs, health, science & police

-respect for grocery store workers, drivers & etc

-people will be clean again?

Cons

-security like measures for health screening at airports or any cross continent travel

-more technology being implemented & to screen for sick people

-more 9/11 like health screenings

-public discrimination of asian people & out of country travelers.


Luckily I see more good then bad but it will definitely push us to the future & more good will come of it then bad.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 14, 2020, 09:36:09 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe

The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.
It's plateauing here (we may actually be starting to climb down the curve, but it would take a few more days to know for sure), but that's because of the social distancing; if it ended, the cases would tick back up.  That's why the states out here are talking about easing restrictions gradually, to keep the number of cases from overwhelming the healthcare system.  There's also talk of lots of surveillance and whatnot to enable it, so sick people can be isolated.  Quite frankly, I'd rather stay in lockdown longer knowing that it's predictable and can't be permanent because the impacts are too great than build a surveillance and quarantine state that will likely become at least partially permanent because people will get used to it as a "new normal" and where there's an even greater risk that you can have your entire life disrupted with no notice by a quarantine order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 14, 2020, 09:42:19 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 14, 2020, 12:21:23 PM
We are at Arlington National Cemetery for my father's inurnment this afternoon. First time I've ever done this for a funeral (Arlington specifically requests attendees cover their faces right now). Hope I never have to again.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200414/0cd7eb0f7a3f20a695f5d11648742172.jpg)

Those of you who have been to military funerals will understand how the protocol is different during the pandemic:

(https://virginia.sportswar.com/post_images/general/00/00/00/13/58/77/39/13587739_0.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 14, 2020, 10:31:38 PM
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/dot-engineer-lost-to-coronavirus-ensured-medical-supplies-could-get-to-nj.html

QuoteA veteran state Department of Transportation engineer, who Gov. Phil Murphy praised for working on a final project to get badly needed medical supplies to the state, is the DOT's first victim of the coronavirus.

Eddy Germain, 67, of Irvington, worked for the DOT for 41 years, rising through the ranks until he was named Director of Bridge Engineering and Infrastructure Management in late 2017, said Stephen Schapiro, a DOT spokesman. He would have celebrated his 42nd anniversary with the DOT in July, he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: route56 on April 14, 2020, 10:49:36 PM
Here in mid-america, Hy-Vee announced that it will offer full service at its gas stations.

https://www.hy-vee.com/corporate/news-events/news-press-releases/hyvee-offers-free-fullservice-fueling/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TravelingBethelite on April 14, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 08:06:34 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe

The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.
I can see alot improving in the years to come.

-more funding for science, medical & health

-respect for public official jobs, health, science & police

-respect for grocery store workers, drivers & etc

-people will be clean again?

Cons

-security like measures for health screening at airports or any cross continent travel

-more technology being implemented & to screen for sick people

-more 9/11 like health screenings

-public discrimination of asian people & out of country travelers.


Luckily I see more good then bad but it will definitely push us to the future & more good will come of it then bad.


iPhone

Yeah right. This is America. Our public attention span is shorter than a flea's so we'll get all of the cons with none of the pros. We're too short-sighted as a nation to plan ahead and be wise like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 14, 2020, 11:35:38 PM
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on April 14, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 08:06:34 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe

The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.
I can see alot improving in the years to come.

-more funding for science, medical & health

-respect for public official jobs, health, science & police

-respect for grocery store workers, drivers & etc

-people will be clean again?

Cons

-security like measures for health screening at airports or any cross continent travel

-more technology being implemented & to screen for sick people

-more 9/11 like health screenings

-public discrimination of asian people & out of country travelers.


Luckily I see more good then bad but it will definitely push us to the future & more good will come of it then bad.


iPhone

Yeah right. This is America. Our public attention span is shorter than a flea's so we'll get all of the cons with none of the pros. We're too short-sighted as a nation to plan ahead and be wise like that.
I agree, but I'm not sure if it's just America, or humans in general.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on April 15, 2020, 05:15:44 AM
1995hoo, that's the most dignified selfie ever taken or posted! :colorful: (I trust you know which one I'm talking about)

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 15, 2020, 07:45:09 AM
Quote from: ixnay on April 15, 2020, 05:15:44 AM
1995hoo, that's the most dignified selfie ever taken or posted! :colorful: (I trust you know which one I'm talking about)

ixnay

Thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 15, 2020, 11:06:10 AM
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on April 14, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 08:06:34 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 14, 2020, 06:42:40 PM
Interesting how scared this thread was a month go.

No faith anymore.

Im glad things are getting better & I hope everyone has been staying safe


The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

I can see alot improving in the years to come.

-more funding for science, medical & health

-respect for public official jobs, health, science & police

-respect for grocery store workers, drivers & etc

-people will be clean again?

Cons

-security like measures for health screening at airports or any cross continent travel

-more technology being implemented & to screen for sick people

-more 9/11 like health screenings

-public discrimination of asian people & out of country travelers.


Luckily I see more good then bad but it will definitely push us to the future & more good will come of it then bad.


iPhone


Yeah right. This is America. Our public attention span is shorter than a flea's so we'll get all of the cons with none of the pros. We're too short-sighted as a nation to plan ahead and be wise like that.



I hate to agree though and we might have to deal with another pandemic sooner than we think.






Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 15, 2020, 02:37:25 PM
So Cuomo just signed an executive order requiring all people in the state to wear face masks starting in three days.  That's great for those who can make one at home, but what about those of us who can't?  Ordering one online takes a LOT longer than three days... this one I found on Amazon takes until June (https://www.amazon.com/Adjustable-Cycling-Camping-Washable-Reusable/dp/B085BN1SV9/ref=sr_1_67?dchild=1&keywords=face+mask&qid=1586975127&sr=8-67&x=0&y=0) for delivery!

Honestly, it strikes me as a bit of security theater, given the limited effectiveness, the fact that we're supposed to maintain social distancing, and the fact that quickly passing by someone within a short distance isn't a big danger as long as they don't cough/sneeze because of the low viral load.  For me, since my Aspergers has left me with a tactile sensitivity (I prioritize comfort above all else when it comes to clothing, for example), this will probably be the most felt departure from normalcy yet, aside from working from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 15, 2020, 03:08:04 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 15, 2020, 02:37:25 PM
So Cuomo just signed an executive order requiring all people in the state to wear face masks starting in three days.  That's great for those who can make one at home, but what about those of us who can't?  Ordering one online takes a LOT longer than three days... this one I found on Amazon takes until June (https://www.amazon.com/Adjustable-Cycling-Camping-Washable-Reusable/dp/B085BN1SV9/ref=sr_1_67?dchild=1&keywords=face+mask&qid=1586975127&sr=8-67&x=0&y=0) for delivery!

Honestly, it strikes me as a bit of security theater, given the limited effectiveness, the fact that we're supposed to maintain social distancing, and the fact that quickly passing by someone within a short distance isn't a big danger as long as they don't cough/sneeze because of the low viral load.  For me, since my Aspergers has left me with a tactile sensitivity (I prioritize comfort above all else when it comes to clothing, for example), this will probably be the most felt departure from normalcy yet, aside from working from home.

If you look at reply 1772, you'll see what my mom did–I believe she cut an old cotton shirt and simply folded it over. She used rubber bands to secure it, although she did say those don't hold it in place as well as she'd like (she was certainly adjusting it often enough). Essentially, she passed the folded shirt through the rubber band at each end and then folded it back to the inside so it was sort of "hooked" over the rubber bands.

I'd wager you would find that to be more comfortable than the N95 mask I was wearing, in part because the two bands on the mask hold it in place quite tightly. That's good, of course, but it's also a bit uncomfortable. I told myself that I'd rather deal with discomfort from a mask than discomfort from the virus!


Edited to add: I asked my mom if she could give me the details on how she did it and she sent me a link to this video from Arlington County, Virginia. My mom didn't use a coffee filter as mentioned here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy76TG53Npo&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 15, 2020, 03:26:36 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 15, 2020, 02:37:25 PM
So Cuomo just signed an executive order requiring all people in the state to wear face masks starting in three days.  That's great for those who can make one at home, but what about those of us who can't?  Ordering one online takes a LOT longer than three days... this one I found on Amazon takes until June (https://www.amazon.com/Adjustable-Cycling-Camping-Washable-Reusable/dp/B085BN1SV9/ref=sr_1_67?dchild=1&keywords=face+mask&qid=1586975127&sr=8-67&x=0&y=0) for delivery!

Honestly, it strikes me as a bit of security theater, given the limited effectiveness, the fact that we're supposed to maintain social distancing, and the fact that quickly passing by someone within a short distance isn't a big danger as long as they don't cough/sneeze because of the low viral load.  For me, since my Aspergers has left me with a tactile sensitivity (I prioritize comfort above all else when it comes to clothing, for example), this will probably be the most felt departure from normalcy yet, aside from working from home.

The problem is this:  the scientists are still trying to figure things out.  At first, it was thought that just touching contaminated surfaces and transferring to your nose was bad.  Then it was being around coughing and sneezing only.  Then it was not touching your eyes either.  Then it was just being around someone talking is enough to get some.  No one knows what the viral load limits are. 

But think about it logically:  droplets are breathed out of your mouth and nose, in order of increasing volume  when you breathe normal, talk normal, yell/sing/talk loudly, breathe heavy, cough, sneeze. 

If you're walking in the woods and you're passing by one person breathing normally...probably ok.
If you're waking on a trail and 10 people pass you running and breathing heavily, even though keeping 6 feet laterally away from you...not as ok...but maybe still ok.
If you're in a supermarket, indoors, and you pass by 30 people breathing normal...not as ok, but maybe ok.  Maybe.

It's a gamble, right?  And it's not just a gamble for yourself.  Because you could catch it and be unaware, and now you're adding your breath droplets for 1-5 days before you realize it.  How much are you willing to risk...both getting it and passing it?

Everyone wants an iron-clad answer now to 1. how can we prevent getting it and passing it? and 2. when can we go back to normal?  Both are impossible to answer.

I'm not willing to pass it along to anyone if I can prevent it.  If it means I'm uncomfortable and inconvenienced for another month, so be it...I can be patient enough to live with that. 

If this is really all a big giant hoax to make us slaves to our corporate masters...then I've had a good run and I have a bridge in mind to jump off of.  Short of that...I'm just going to be patient and keep my parents and relatives and as many people alive and suffering as I can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 15, 2020, 04:15:35 PM
I am reluctant to wear a mask in public because I am concerned that it gives others a false sense of security when they wander into my six-foot space bubble.  I would rather not dilute their incentive to maintain the strict physical distancing that keeps all of us safe.  If masks become mandatory in my local area, however, I will be forced to wear one when I go out, just to send a social signal of willingness to do what is asked of us in terms of limiting spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 04:28:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 15, 2020, 04:15:35 PM
I am reluctant to wear a mask in public because I am concerned that it gives others a false sense of security when they wander into my six-foot space bubble.  I would rather not dilute their incentive to maintain the strict physical distancing that keeps all of us safe.  If masks become mandatory in my local area, however, I will be forced to wear one when I go out, just to send a social signal of willingness to do what is asked of us in terms of limiting spread.

Having a beard it makes my face itch infinitely worse than without one.  I can't imagine what I'm experiencing is a net win, I don't wear it when I'm not required to. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 15, 2020, 04:49:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 04:28:10 PM
Having a beard it makes my face itch infinitely worse than without one.  I can't imagine what I'm experiencing is a net win, I don't wear it when I'm not required to. 

IIRC, firefighters and others who really need to have a tight-fitting mask, with no leakage around the edges, aren't allowed to have beards.

I don't have that issue. I wear a mask only when I'm indoors with other people, but that's mainly to stretch out my few consumer-grade surgical masks (bought in December when I was battling a nasty cold during the holidays). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 15, 2020, 05:08:29 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 15, 2020, 04:15:35 PM
I am reluctant to wear a mask in public because I am concerned that it gives others a false sense of security when they wander into my six-foot space bubble.  I would rather not dilute their incentive to maintain the strict physical distancing that keeps all of us safe.  If masks become mandatory in my local area, however, I will be forced to wear one when I go out, just to send a social signal of willingness to do what is asked of us in terms of limiting spread.
6 feet are a weaker measure than a mask. 6 feet is enough (maybe) for bigger droplets to loose speed and settle on the floor, while mask intersepts those droplets it the point of origin. And mask may do so more efficiently
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 05:28:28 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 15, 2020, 04:49:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 04:28:10 PM
Having a beard it makes my face itch infinitely worse than without one.  I can't imagine what I'm experiencing is a net win, I don't wear it when I'm not required to. 

IIRC, firefighters and others who really need to have a tight-fitting mask, with no leakage around the edges, aren't allowed to have beards.

I don't have that issue. I wear a mask only when I'm indoors with other people, but that's mainly to stretch out my few consumer-grade surgical masks (bought in December when I was battling a nasty cold during the holidays).

That's true with most departments and usually is lumped into uniform standards somewhere.  Most of the masks I have are home brew which I'm required to wear at work.  The home brew stuff feels okay but I doubt the loose feel is what would ideally be desired.  The actual legitimate masks are the ones that get to my skin since they are a tight fit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
I was going to take the SAT this year, but all dates before August were cancelled, and many schools are waiving the requirement, so I don't know anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 05:45:25 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
I was going to take the SAT this year, but all dates before August were cancelled, and many schools are waiving the requirement, so I don't know anymore.

Could always enlist in the military if this stuff is going on still when you hit 18.  Might be beneficial to kick college down the road if you don't have an academic scholarship going. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:46:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 05:45:25 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
I was going to take the SAT this year, but all dates before August were cancelled, and many schools are waiving the requirement, so I don't know anymore.

Could always enlist in the military if this stuff is going on still when you hit 18.  Might be beneficial to kick college down the road if you don't have an academic scholarship going.
I'm not sure if I'd be eligible to serve even if I wanted too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 15, 2020, 06:30:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:46:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 05:45:25 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
I was going to take the SAT this year, but all dates before August were cancelled, and many schools are waiving the requirement, so I don't know anymore.

Could always enlist in the military if this stuff is going on still when you hit 18.  Might be beneficial to kick college down the road if you don't have an academic scholarship going.
I'm not sure if I'd be eligible to serve even if I wanted too.
You can serve at either 16 or 17 with parents' permission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 06:32:13 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 15, 2020, 06:30:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:46:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 05:45:25 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
I was going to take the SAT this year, but all dates before August were cancelled, and many schools are waiving the requirement, so I don't know anymore.

Could always enlist in the military if this stuff is going on still when you hit 18.  Might be beneficial to kick college down the road if you don't have an academic scholarship going.
I'm not sure if I'd be eligible to serve even if I wanted too.
You can serve at either 16 or 17 with parents' permission.

In all seriousness I was thinking that would be a viable alternative for a lot of people who all the sudden have really uncertain near term prospects for college.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 10:04:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 06:32:13 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 15, 2020, 06:30:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:46:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 05:45:25 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
I was going to take the SAT this year, but all dates before August were cancelled, and many schools are waiving the requirement, so I don't know anymore.

Could always enlist in the military if this stuff is going on still when you hit 18.  Might be beneficial to kick college down the road if you don't have an academic scholarship going.
I'm not sure if I'd be eligible to serve even if I wanted too.
You can serve at either 16 or 17 with parents' permission.

In all seriousness I was thinking that would be a viable alternative for a lot of people who all the sudden have really uncertain near term prospects for college.
A lot of schools are going test optional, and there are dates up until November so I should be fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 11:12:04 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 10:04:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 06:32:13 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 15, 2020, 06:30:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:46:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 15, 2020, 05:45:25 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 15, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
I was going to take the SAT this year, but all dates before August were cancelled, and many schools are waiving the requirement, so I don't know anymore.

Could always enlist in the military if this stuff is going on still when you hit 18.  Might be beneficial to kick college down the road if you don't have an academic scholarship going.
I'm not sure if I'd be eligible to serve even if I wanted too.
You can serve at either 16 or 17 with parents' permission.

In all seriousness I was thinking that would be a viable alternative for a lot of people who all the sudden have really uncertain near term prospects for college.
A lot of schools are going test optional, and there are dates up until November so I should be fine.

If I was paying for classes or having to take out a loan I wouldn't be so chancy with my money.  Its probably better to wait a year or two before all this virus BS levels out and you don't risk wasting a ton of time in addition to cash.  Even the regular work force has a ton of demand for certain jobs that will likely have some hazard pay for awhile.  Not all this college and school stuff can be done online, something will have to give....or break down (which it kind of has with this year) eventually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

If I were roadgeekteen, I would enroll where you want to go, and if they go "virtual," see if the local junior college offers the virtual option at a lower price.  Then talk with an admissions counselor about what courses could transfer in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:13:02 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

If I were roadgeekteen, I would enroll where you want to go, and if they go "virtual," see if the local junior college offers the virtual option at a lower price.  Then talk with an admissions counselor about what courses could transfer in.

I've yet to see (and maybe someone can enlighten on this) anything substantial yet that would show how the next college semester would be handled online...or the next couple.  At minimum you could have a guaranteed paycheck (which your parents might not have given the state of many non-essential businesses) and access to health insurance through Tri-Care. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:21:54 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

....

Note the various news reports this week about various military commanders insisting they maintain the haircut rules, purportedly in the name of "discipline," leading to lines of soldiers at the few barbershops that remain open to cater to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:30:58 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:21:54 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

....

Note the various news reports this week about various military commanders insisting they maintain the haircut rules, purportedly in the name of "discipline," leading to lines of soldiers at the few barbershops that remain open to cater to them.

Most bases have their own barbers located at the PXs.  That would be interesting to see how tightly that is regulated or if the solution ends up being something more home brew with a trimmer. 

Speaking of haircuts I'm seriously considering buzzing my hair or outright shaving for awhile.  My haircut is a standard 4 blade on the top and 2 on the side.  I have a beard trimmer but I can't find anything useful in the outside retail world at the moment.  At the very least buzzing would be low maintenance which would be nice (t was when I lived in Phoenix) for the summer months.  I'm sure my wife won't be happy though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:44:47 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:30:58 AM
....

Speaking of haircuts I'm seriously considering buzzing my hair or outright shaving for awhile.  My haircut is a standard 4 blade on the top and 2 on the side.  I have a beard trimmer but I can't find anything useful in the outside retail world at the moment.  At the very least buzzing would be low maintenance which would be nice (t was when I lived in Phoenix) for the summer months.  I'm sure my wife won't be happy though. 

I got my hair cut the weekend of February 29/March 1 because of a work event the following Thursday and Friday. Glad I got it cut then before all the barbershops closed! It's just now getting to the point where in the next week or two it'll start to feel like it's getting longer and it'll annoy me. Often I can stretch it for another week or two if necessary by using hairspray, but I'm going to have a tough time deciding what to do. My wife has offered to trim it, but I'm not sure I trust her. I don't think she understands my point about how it's not just trimming the sides so the hair doesn't grow over my ears, but also trimming the top so it's not as thick (especially as the weather gets warmer), and I think she thinks she can use my electric trimmer to do the whole thing (the barber uses scissors for a good bit of the process).

I was kind of struck by one of the pictures from Arlington Cemetery on Tuesday in which my wife took a picture from behind of my mom and me when we stopped at a family friend's niche located on the other side of the wall from where my father was inurned. I'm obviously well aware of how the hair on the sides of my head is getting grey, and I'm aware of the thin spot at the top of the back, but I didn't know just how grey the hair on the back of my head has gotten until I saw that picture. If I didn't know better, I might have thought the picture was a picture of my father and mother from a year or two ago because from behind I looked so much like him prior to his health issues in his final year or two (due to the combination of the hair, our having been a similar height, and my wearing a dark Brooks Brothers suit, as that was the maker he favored as well).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 09:58:05 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:13:02 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

If I were roadgeekteen, I would enroll where you want to go, and if they go "virtual," see if the local junior college offers the virtual option at a lower price.  Then talk with an admissions counselor about what courses could transfer in.

I've yet to see (and maybe someone can enlighten on this) anything substantial yet that would show how the next college semester would be handled online...or the next couple.  At minimum you could have a guaranteed paycheck (which your parents might not have given the state of many non-essential businesses) and access to health insurance through Tri-Care. 


If he's a student and under the age of 25 he can stay on his parent's health plan.  Anyway many college's offer remote learning as a matter of course.  So they are usually pretty good at it and have the technological capabilities.  If it is a community college that offers transfer credits to four year schools, it is a cheaper option.

And sure you can get a paycheck now.  But that just delays you from getting what is very likely a larger paycheck later when you earn your bachelors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TravelingBethelite on April 16, 2020, 10:17:54 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:13:02 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

If I were roadgeekteen, I would enroll where you want to go, and if they go "virtual," see if the local junior college offers the virtual option at a lower price.  Then talk with an admissions counselor about what courses could transfer in.

I've yet to see (and maybe someone can enlighten on this) anything substantial yet that would show how the next college semester would be handled online...or the next couple. [...]

As a current college student I can say (and this is probably true for most larger schools, I'm not sure where he wants to apply), my school administration has been handling this days and weeks at a time. I have only very recently heard discussions going on about classes next semester. Summer classes have already been pushed online. From what I know, my school (Missouri) is tentatively planning to have classes in person this fall, but has back-up plans (staying online) in case the crisis persists until then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:21:00 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 09:58:05 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:13:02 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

If I were roadgeekteen, I would enroll where you want to go, and if they go "virtual," see if the local junior college offers the virtual option at a lower price.  Then talk with an admissions counselor about what courses could transfer in.

I've yet to see (and maybe someone can enlighten on this) anything substantial yet that would show how the next college semester would be handled online...or the next couple.  At minimum you could have a guaranteed paycheck (which your parents might not have given the state of many non-essential businesses) and access to health insurance through Tri-Care. 


If he's a student and under the age of 25 he can stay on his parent's health plan.  Anyway many college's offer remote learning as a matter of course.  So they are usually pretty good at it and have the technological capabilities.  If it is a community college that offers transfer credits to four year schools, it is a cheaper option.

And sure you can get a paycheck now.  But that just delays you from getting what is very likely a larger paycheck later when you earn your bachelors.

Most college graduates I know would have been better off getting actual experience in their work field first rather than facing the debt of college loans just to get a degree.  Actual world experience is probably even more weighted on job applications than having a four degree is.  And a college degree doesn't mean guaranteed success.  A combination of working in a career field and going to school probably is the best bet if one can afford it.  If not I would probably say work in-field for a couple years until you can afford the burden of student loans (this assuming a no scholarship scenario).  At least with the military they'll give you a job and funding for college coming out the back end.  I would think these days that something like that would be really valuable given the uncertainty of any public exposure, especially in a school setting.

Maybe it's just me be it would be unfathomable to be supported by a parent until the age of 25.  Granted, my own personal experience was moving across the country at 18 and that's largely a generational thing from what I can see (25 is the 18 is something I hear regularly).  But I'm getting too far off the point I was tying to make.  One might not be able short term to rely on their parents having an income from employment and the flow of college is far from certain at least for the fall semester. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 16, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
RGteen's profile says he's 16.  He's also talking about taking the SAT this year.  I think that means he's a HS junior, not a senior, and would be applying for college with the results of the SAT.  So starting college Fall 2021, not Fall 2020.

Correct me if I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:47:24 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 16, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
RGteen's profile says he's 16.  He's also talking about taking the SAT this year.  I think that means he's a HS junior, not a senior, and would be applying for college with the results of the SAT.  So starting college Fall 2021, not Fall 2020.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

That seems about right.  I think in his scenario the door will be more wide open to "normalcy."   I was more intrigued as to what someone who was supposed to graduate this year would do...or if their plans might be altered for college. 

So something I'm curious about with school, are kids being advanced to the next grade if the year ended now or shuttered?  My niece's school district hasn't totally ruled out they aren't coming back (which given what the governor is saying lately seems unlikely) in the summer to finish the school year.  In the scenario that the year can't be completed, do all those kids get held back a grade or move onto the next grade?  Has anyone in their areas seen conclusive answers to that question?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 10:47:59 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:21:00 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 09:58:05 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:13:02 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
I wouldn't join the military if you are concerned about contracting Covid.  They're really not all that prepared either.

If I were roadgeekteen, I would enroll where you want to go, and if they go "virtual," see if the local junior college offers the virtual option at a lower price.  Then talk with an admissions counselor about what courses could transfer in.

I've yet to see (and maybe someone can enlighten on this) anything substantial yet that would show how the next college semester would be handled online...or the next couple.  At minimum you could have a guaranteed paycheck (which your parents might not have given the state of many non-essential businesses) and access to health insurance through Tri-Care. 


If he's a student and under the age of 25 he can stay on his parent's health plan.  Anyway many college's offer remote learning as a matter of course.  So they are usually pretty good at it and have the technological capabilities.  If it is a community college that offers transfer credits to four year schools, it is a cheaper option.

And sure you can get a paycheck now.  But that just delays you from getting what is very likely a larger paycheck later when you earn your bachelors.

Most college graduates I know would have been better off getting actual experience in their work field first rather than facing the debt of college loans just to get a degree.  Actual world experience is probably even more weighted on job applications than having a four degree is.  And a college degree doesn't mean guaranteed success.  A combination of working in a career field and going to school probably is the best bet if one can afford it.  If not I would probably say work in-field for a couple years until you can afford the burden of student loans (this assuming a no scholarship scenario).  At least with the military they'll give you a job and funding for college coming out the back end.  I would think these days that something like that would be really valuable given the uncertainty of any public exposure, especially in a school setting.

Maybe it's just me be it would be unfathomable to be supported by a parent until the age of 25.  Granted, my own personal experience was moving across the country at 18 and that's largely a generational thing from what I can see (25 is the 18 is something I hear regularly).  But I'm getting too far off the point I was tying to make.  One might not be able short term to rely on their parents having an income from employment and the flow of college is far from certain at least for the fall semester. 


Of course nothing is guaranteed, but ON AVERAGE the difference in annual income between a high school diploma and a bachelors degree is almost $25,000 annually.

https://smartasset.com/retirement/the-average-salary-by-education-level

Even if you rack up $25,000 in student loans, you are "even" even in one year.  The sooner you can earn your degree, ON AVERAGE, the sooner you will earn more money.  Exiting the workforce to earn your degree later, will likely result in less lifetime earning.

Student loans have become such a bogeyman.  My kids have them, and are paying them off while also making more money had they not gone to college.  They are living on their own and doing what they love.  Easy investment for them to make.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 10:51:08 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:44:47 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:30:58 AM
....

Speaking of haircuts I'm seriously considering buzzing my hair or outright shaving for awhile.  My haircut is a standard 4 blade on the top and 2 on the side.  I have a beard trimmer but I can't find anything useful in the outside retail world at the moment.  At the very least buzzing would be low maintenance which would be nice (t was when I lived in Phoenix) for the summer months.  I'm sure my wife won't be happy though. 

I got my hair cut the weekend of February 29/March 1 because of a work event the following Thursday and Friday. Glad I got it cut then before all the barbershops closed! It's just now getting to the point where in the next week or two it'll start to feel like it's getting longer and it'll annoy me. Often I can stretch it for another week or two if necessary by using hairspray, but I'm going to have a tough time deciding what to do. My wife has offered to trim it, but I'm not sure I trust her. I don't think she understands my point about how it's not just trimming the sides so the hair doesn't grow over my ears, but also trimming the top so it's not as thick (especially as the weather gets warmer), and I think she thinks she can use my electric trimmer to do the whole thing (the barber uses scissors for a good bit of the process).

I was kind of struck by one of the pictures from Arlington Cemetery on Tuesday in which my wife took a picture from behind of my mom and me when we stopped at a family friend's niche located on the other side of the wall from where my father was inurned. I'm obviously well aware of how the hair on the sides of my head is getting grey, and I'm aware of the thin spot at the top of the back, but I didn't know just how grey the hair on the back of my head has gotten until I saw that picture. If I didn't know better, I might have thought the picture was a picture of my father and mother from a year or two ago because from behind I looked so much like him prior to his health issues in his final year or two (due to the combination of the hair, our having been a similar height, and my wearing a dark Brooks Brothers suit, as that was the maker he favored as well).
Similar story - I got haircut shortly before onset of events. To make things worse, the guy didn't understand what I wanted and gave me a much shorter haircut than what I usually do. I wonder if he knew something...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:52:18 AM
^^^

Potentially 40k-120k in loans that affect your early adulthood is something I can't ever see as a worthwhile investment for early adulthood when alternatives like Junior College and the GI Bill are available.  My brother-in-law is a foreman and engineer at his job down in Tampa Area.  He just paid off his student loans two years ago, that's 15 years of debt...  In his case he actually made it in his career field but what about those who don't?  All of the sudden debt over that time scale in low-medium wage jobs is a boat anchor. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 16, 2020, 10:57:25 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:47:24 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 16, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
RGteen's profile says he's 16.  He's also talking about taking the SAT this year.  I think that means he's a HS junior, not a senior, and would be applying for college with the results of the SAT.  So starting college Fall 2021, not Fall 2020.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

That seems about right.  I think in his scenario the door will be more wide open to "normalcy."   I was more intrigued as to what someone who was supposed to graduate this year would do...or if their plans might be altered for college. 

So something I'm curious about with school, are kids being advanced to the next grade if the year ended now or shuttered?  My niece's school district hasn't totally ruled out they aren't coming back (which given what the governor is saying lately seems unlikely) in the summer to finish the school year.  In the scenario that the year can't be completed, do all those kids get held back a grade or move onto the next grade?  Has anyone in their areas seen conclusive answers to that question?
I'm pretty sure we are advancing, as we are doing online learning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 11:00:06 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 16, 2020, 10:57:25 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:47:24 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 16, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
RGteen's profile says he's 16.  He's also talking about taking the SAT this year.  I think that means he's a HS junior, not a senior, and would be applying for college with the results of the SAT.  So starting college Fall 2021, not Fall 2020.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

That seems about right.  I think in his scenario the door will be more wide open to "normalcy."   I was more intrigued as to what someone who was supposed to graduate this year would do...or if their plans might be altered for college. 

So something I'm curious about with school, are kids being advanced to the next grade if the year ended now or shuttered?  My niece's school district hasn't totally ruled out they aren't coming back (which given what the governor is saying lately seems unlikely) in the summer to finish the school year.  In the scenario that the year can't be completed, do all those kids get held back a grade or move onto the next grade?  Has anyone in their areas seen conclusive answers to that question?
I'm pretty sure we are advancing, as we are doing online learning.

But they haven't told you that with certainty?  At least they got you doing something, in the case of my niece her school doesn't have her doing anything at all.  Granted, the school is rural and not the highest income demographic which might be playing a part (not everyone has an internet capable device).  My wife and bought her a lap top but haven't heard anything from the school aside from they want to restart.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 16, 2020, 11:08:30 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 11:00:06 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 16, 2020, 10:57:25 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:47:24 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 16, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
RGteen's profile says he's 16.  He's also talking about taking the SAT this year.  I think that means he's a HS junior, not a senior, and would be applying for college with the results of the SAT.  So starting college Fall 2021, not Fall 2020.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

That seems about right.  I think in his scenario the door will be more wide open to “normalcy.”  I was more intrigued as to what someone who was supposed to graduate this year would do...or if their plans might be altered for college. 

So something I’m curious about with school, are kids being advanced to the next grade if the year ended now or shuttered?  My niece’s school district hasn’t totally ruled out they aren’t coming back (which given what the governor is saying lately seems unlikely) in the summer to finish the school year.  In the scenario that the year can’t be completed, do all those kids get held back a grade or move onto the next grade?  Has anyone in their areas seen conclusive answers to that question?
I'm pretty sure we are advancing, as we are doing online learning.

But they haven’t told you that with certainty?  At least they got you doing something, in the case of my niece her school doesn’t have her doing anything at all.  Granted, the school is rural and not the highest income demographic which might be playing a part (not everyone has an internet capable device).  My wife and bought her a lap top but haven’t heard anything from the school aside from they want to restart.   

That's an interesting question.  The district my son is in has converted to online, so there will be normal grade advancement...not sure how districts that haven't been able to convert will manage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 16, 2020, 11:09:29 AM
Quote from: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed. 

But hoaxes and conspiracy theories and my rights...  /sarcasm
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 11:19:12 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 16, 2020, 11:09:29 AM
Quote from: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed. 

But hoaxes and conspiracy theories and my rights...  /sarcasm

Nonetheless there are still a ton of people who were living paycheck to paycheck that now don't have a certainty for income beyond short term measures like stimulus checks or temporary debt forgiveness.  In those situations it's not too hard to understand where the outcry for going back to work would have some merit.  But as often is the case people who speak the loudest aren't even effected or have some sort of anti-government/political/biased based reason for the crap they spew all over social media. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 16, 2020, 11:29:53 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 11:19:12 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 16, 2020, 11:09:29 AM
Quote from: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed. 

But hoaxes and conspiracy theories and my rights...  /sarcasm

Nonetheless there are still a ton of people who were living paycheck to paycheck that now don't have a certainty for income beyond short term measures like stimulus checks or temporary debt forgiveness.  In those situations it's not too hard to understand where the outcry for going back to work would have some merit.  But as often is the case people who speak the loudest aren't even effected or have some sort of anti-government/political/biased based reason for the crap they spew all over social media. 

Two things: 

1) public health and safety should override any economic concerns.  Government can overcome economic problems, they can't overcome death

2) one of the many things that I expect will change permanently is that people are going to do more to avoid having to live paycheck to paycheck.  I realize that for many, this will never be possible, but I expect to see people being less willing to go into debt and more willing to save.  I think you'll see people buying more used cars and fewer new ones, buying $200K houses instead of $300K houses, opting for public universities rather than private, etc., in order to keep themselves more liquid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on April 16, 2020, 11:49:38 AM
I'm in the same boat as Roadgeekteen. I was supposed to take the SAT a few weeks ago, but it got canceled. I should be fine, though, I basically know what I want to do and I can take the SAT in the fall if schools reopen by then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
If Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.

As for someone's future plans after high school, don't neglect the skilled trades. There will always be a demand for plumbers and HVAC specialists and they make really good money, without all the debt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 16, 2020, 12:21:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 11:00:06 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 16, 2020, 10:57:25 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:47:24 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 16, 2020, 10:41:34 AM
RGteen's profile says he's 16.  He's also talking about taking the SAT this year.  I think that means he's a HS junior, not a senior, and would be applying for college with the results of the SAT.  So starting college Fall 2021, not Fall 2020.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

That seems about right.  I think in his scenario the door will be more wide open to "normalcy."   I was more intrigued as to what someone who was supposed to graduate this year would do...or if their plans might be altered for college. 

So something I'm curious about with school, are kids being advanced to the next grade if the year ended now or shuttered?  My niece's school district hasn't totally ruled out they aren't coming back (which given what the governor is saying lately seems unlikely) in the summer to finish the school year.  In the scenario that the year can't be completed, do all those kids get held back a grade or move onto the next grade?  Has anyone in their areas seen conclusive answers to that question?
I'm pretty sure we are advancing, as we are doing online learning.

But they haven't told you that with certainty?  At least they got you doing something, in the case of my niece her school doesn't have her doing anything at all.  Granted, the school is rural and not the highest income demographic which might be playing a part (not everyone has an internet capable device).  My wife and bought her a lap top but haven't heard anything from the school aside from they want to restart.
Most every student at my school has internet and a computer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:22:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
If Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.
Which is probably pretty adequate - until the supply chain for masks is established and those become  somewhat like socks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:28:51 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 16, 2020, 11:29:53 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 11:19:12 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 16, 2020, 11:09:29 AM
Quote from: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed. 

But hoaxes and conspiracy theories and my rights...  /sarcasm

Nonetheless there are still a ton of people who were living paycheck to paycheck that now don't have a certainty for income beyond short term measures like stimulus checks or temporary debt forgiveness.  In those situations it's not too hard to understand where the outcry for going back to work would have some merit.  But as often is the case people who speak the loudest aren't even effected or have some sort of anti-government/political/biased based reason for the crap they spew all over social media. 

Two things: 

1) public health and safety should override any economic concerns.  Government can overcome economic problems, they can't overcome death

2) one of the many things that I expect will change permanently is that people are going to do more to avoid having to live paycheck to paycheck.  I realize that for many, this will never be possible, but I expect to see people being less willing to go into debt and more willing to save.  I think you'll see people buying more used cars and fewer new ones, buying $200K houses instead of $300K houses, opting for public universities rather than private, etc., in order to keep themselves more liquid.

While I mostly agree, the fact is that the majority of Americans live pay check to pay check...it isn't really a "by choice"  thing.  While I tend to be a believer that most people are victims of the circumstances they put themselves in financially this is all very unprecedented and couldn't be planned for by the average American.  To that end I really hope that there is some emphasis put back on financial planning and how to grow savings.  Those topics used to be talked about a lot two decades ago but you hardly hear it touched on any more.  It would be really invaluable information for kids in High School and College to learn about even if they aren't into economics. 

To that end, the long term effects to the economy and the effects on the average person are too soon to really predict.  I do find it concerning that there are a lot of extended family members in my own inner circle that don't know where they'll get money if their unemployment claims don't go through.  There has been some surprises in my own family who are suddenly under financial hardship that I thought were far more squared away. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:22:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
If Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.
Which is probably pretty adequate - until the supply chain for masks is established and those become  somewhat like socks.

My wife and I have made about two dozen home brew masks out of almost everything cloth we have laying around.  They can be pretty easily made from scrap material and old shirts in a pinch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:31:43 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 16, 2020, 11:29:53 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 11:19:12 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 16, 2020, 11:09:29 AM
Quote from: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed. 

But hoaxes and conspiracy theories and my rights...  /sarcasm

Nonetheless there are still a ton of people who were living paycheck to paycheck that now don't have a certainty for income beyond short term measures like stimulus checks or temporary debt forgiveness.  In those situations it's not too hard to understand where the outcry for going back to work would have some merit.  But as often is the case people who speak the loudest aren't even effected or have some sort of anti-government/political/biased based reason for the crap they spew all over social media. 

Two things: 

1) public health and safety should override any economic concerns.  Government can overcome economic problems, they can't overcome death

2) one of the many things that I expect will change permanently is that people are going to do more to avoid having to live paycheck to paycheck.  I realize that for many, this will never be possible, but I expect to see people being less willing to go into debt and more willing to save.  I think you'll see people buying more used cars and fewer new ones, buying $200K houses instead of $300K houses, opting for public universities rather than private, etc., in order to keep themselves more liquid.

A question to ask: why  public health and safety don't override any economic concerns in case of regular seasonal flu?
There are two ways of answering - to go into a hysteric mode, or to pull out a calculator and do some math.
If you do the second option, it turns out that quarantine is MARGINALLY justified in the current situation. Tweak some parameters - and you can get easily get "yes" or "no". 

My impression is that quarantine the way it is working is justified for NYC and a few similar places, the rest of the world should unlock with precautions.
Again, my impression is that we're seing by-the-book responce, taken from textbook written in 1920s, on the aftermath of Spanish flu. Nobody working today has an actual experience of large scale pandemic control, and understanding is weak.

Quote from: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed.
This isn't actually a very high number - US death rate is about 10k/day during better times.
Worst case scenario for this virus - doubling 2020 death rate. THis is not spanish flu, when entire villages could die out. This is not black death, when quarter to half population died. This virus is bad - but not totally extremely bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:33:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:22:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
If Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.
Which is probably pretty adequate - until the supply chain for masks is established and those become  somewhat like socks.

My wife and I have made about two dozen home brew masks out of almost everything cloth we have laying around.  They can be pretty easily made from scrap material and old shirts in a pinch.
I have only 2 - but high quality ones. We also have about 10 medical ones from pre-crisi days.
Having a sewing machine - and knowing how to use that - definitely help.
Actually, there are posts on nextdoor where (I assume) old ladies with sewing hobby hand out masks for free.  Or maybe not-so-old ladies with a hobby but no job
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 16, 2020, 12:45:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:33:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:22:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
If Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.
Which is probably pretty adequate - until the supply chain for masks is established and those become  somewhat like socks.

My wife and I have made about two dozen home brew masks out of almost everything cloth we have laying around.  They can be pretty easily made from scrap material and old shirts in a pinch.
I have only 2 - but high quality ones. We also have about 10 medical ones from pre-crisi days.
Having a sewing machine - and knowing how to use that - definitely help.
Actually, there are posts on nextdoor where (I assume) old ladies with sewing hobby hand out masks for free.  Or maybe not-so-old ladies with a hobby but no job

A few years back we bought a box of dust masks.  Bought way too many, and they just sat around.  They're coming in handy now!

But no one needs a mask - something that covers your nose and mouth is fine.  Many are using bandanas. Even a t-shirt or winter scarf that's tied in the back covering your face is fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 16, 2020, 12:48:17 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 16, 2020, 12:45:11 PM
But no one needs a mask - something that covers your nose and mouth is fine.  Many are using bandanas.

Indeed, I have seen quite a few people using bandanas, and I know it's not a funny situation, but I do keep having to chuckle about the Wild West vibes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:50:57 PM
The panic caused by all this is really what should be concerning for public officials.  While the death rates aren't substantially higher than recent pandemics and even some seasonal flus the public panic is.  It's just an American phenomenon too, the panic was pretty much across the board this time around.  To that end, the question I have is this how society will react to a really bad flu season or even a "minor"  epidemic or pandemic in the future?   Granted things as leveling out now because people know what to expect and likely will in the future if something similar were to occur.  The main thing that I see as a trigger for the panic is the lack of real up front information that began to spread like wildfire (rumor, speculation, and conjecture in all forms of media) and a lack of uniform command in terms of response.  It seems like the states that had a clearer message and response up front aren't getting hit as hard. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 16, 2020, 12:57:36 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:50:57 PM
The panic caused by all this is really what should be concerning for public officials.  While the death rates aren't substantially higher than recent pandemics and even some seasonal flus the public panic is.  It's just an American phenomenon too, the panic was pretty much across the board this time around.  To that end, the question I have is this how society will react to a really bad flu season or even a "minor"  epidemic or pandemic in the future?   Granted things as leveling out now because people know what to expect and likely will in the future if something similar were to occur.  The main thing that I see as a trigger for the panic is the lack of real up front information that began to spread like wildfire (rumor, speculation, and conjecture in all forms of media) and a lack of uniform command in terms of response.  It seems like the states that had a clearer message and response up front aren't getting hit as hard. 

Other than Ohio, most states that aren't being hit that hard are large, low population states.  Ohio was notable for its quick action shutting the state down. Florida was noted for its lackluster response.  Otherwise, most states are learning what needs to be done as things roll along.  In NY, the city got hit very hard, but the state-wide response kept much of the rest of the state from being terribly impacted.  In my State of NJ, North Jersey was hit much harder than South Jersey, but again, all Executive Actions were statewide. 

The people also need to take action and responsibility as well.  There aren't many, but there's enough that believe rules don't apply to them and find every possible loophole to do whatever they want to do.  They're quick to blame the government for everything, yet refuse to look in the mirror to realize the government needs to do what they are doing because they caused it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:01:26 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 16, 2020, 12:57:36 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:50:57 PM
The panic caused by all this is really what should be concerning for public officials.  While the death rates aren't substantially higher than recent pandemics and even some seasonal flus the public panic is.  It's just an American phenomenon too, the panic was pretty much across the board this time around.  To that end, the question I have is this how society will react to a really bad flu season or even a "minor"  epidemic or pandemic in the future?   Granted things as leveling out now because people know what to expect and likely will in the future if something similar were to occur.  The main thing that I see as a trigger for the panic is the lack of real up front information that began to spread like wildfire (rumor, speculation, and conjecture in all forms of media) and a lack of uniform command in terms of response.  It seems like the states that had a clearer message and response up front aren't getting hit as hard. 

Other than Ohio, most states that aren't being hit that hard are large, low population states.  Ohio was notable for its quick action shutting the state down. Florida was noted for its lackluster response.  Otherwise, most states are learning what needs to be done as things roll along.  In NY, the city got hit very hard, but the state-wide response kept much of the rest of the state from being terribly impacted.  In my State of NJ, North Jersey was hit much harder than South Jersey, but again, all Executive Actions were statewide. 

The people also need to take action and responsibility as well.  There aren't many, but there's enough that believe rules don't apply to them and find every possible loophole to do whatever they want to do.  They're quick to blame the government for everything, yet refuse to look in the mirror to realize the government needs to do what they are doing because they caused it.

But the majority of people do follow the rules proscribed to them, the outliers are the ones getting media attention.  I was kind of surprised to see a large scale protest in downtown Lansing yesterday, but then again that's something people have historical done in Michigan.  For a large state like California I'm kind of surprised the numbers haven't been higher but then again  the problem spots are concentrated to large cities as one might expect.  Surprisingly a lot of individual cities out here locked down before anyone else ever did and it seems to have been effective (San Francisco Bay Area and Fresno especially). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 16, 2020, 01:02:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:50:57 PM
The panic caused by all this is really what should be concerning for public officials.  While the death rates aren't substantially higher than recent pandemics and even some seasonal flus the public panic is.  It's just an American phenomenon too, the panic was pretty much across the board this time around.  To that end, the question I have is this how society will react to a really bad flu season or even a "minor"  epidemic or pandemic in the future?   Granted things as leveling out now because people know what to expect and likely will in the future if something similar were to occur.  The main thing that I see as a trigger for the panic is the lack of real up front information that began to spread like wildfire (rumor, speculation, and conjecture in all forms of media) and a lack of uniform command in terms of response.  It seems like the states that had a clearer message and response up front aren't getting hit as hard. 

The death RATES, as in percentage of infected people dying, are far higher than any traditional flu virus.  The raw totals of deaths are lower precisely because of the extreme measures, often misinterpreted as public panic, that have mitigated the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:07:56 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 16, 2020, 01:02:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:50:57 PM
The panic caused by all this is really what should be concerning for public officials.  While the death rates aren't substantially higher than recent pandemics and even some seasonal flus the public panic is.  It's just an American phenomenon too, the panic was pretty much across the board this time around.  To that end, the question I have is this how society will react to a really bad flu season or even a "minor"  epidemic or pandemic in the future?   Granted things as leveling out now because people know what to expect and likely will in the future if something similar were to occur.  The main thing that I see as a trigger for the panic is the lack of real up front information that began to spread like wildfire (rumor, speculation, and conjecture in all forms of media) and a lack of uniform command in terms of response.  It seems like the states that had a clearer message and response up front aren't getting hit as hard. 

The death RATES, as in percentage of infected people dying, are far higher than any traditional flu virus.  The raw totals of deaths are lower precisely because of the extreme measures, often misinterpreted as public panic, that have mitigated the spread.

They'll probably come out to the neighborhood of a 1% mortality rate at the end of the day.  Basing mortality rates off of confirmed cases isn't exactly the most accurate way to get a mortality rate.  The rate of infection is undoubted way higher than that confirmed case amount.  So while yes the mortality rate will be higher than the majority of flu seasons the flip side we aren't talking Black Death or even Spanish Flu.  So while measures have had an effect on the spread the virus in it's current form isn't even close to one of the deadliest that has been encountered in recorded history. 

Regardless it kind of makes me wish people would take things like heart disease much more seriously given that COVID-19 is pulling similar daily mortality numbers state side right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 16, 2020, 01:09:17 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PMIf Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.

I don't want a mask order either.  We do have two masks, but they are both N95 (purchased long ago for a painting job), so to wear them in public would send a bad signal.  I'd rather not use something from the rag basket because we don't put anything in there until it is seriously holey, and I prefer to present a neat appearance in public.

Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PMAs for someone's future plans after high school, don't neglect the skilled trades. There will always be a demand for plumbers and HVAC specialists and they make really good money, without all the debt.

I have reservations about this approach from an economics standpoint.  To make decent pay working at a given occupation, it helps to have entry barriers.  Jobs that require college degrees (even if it is in an unrelated field) build this in.  For skilled trades this is done through multi-year apprenticeships (often paid) and graduated levels of certification.  But once you are in a given trade, you are committed to it, often for the remainder of your working life, and are subject to rises and falls in demand for that trade.  It can be hard to work as a carpenter when the bottom has fallen out of the real estate market and nobody is building new houses, for example.

Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:31:43 PMA question to ask: why  public health and safety don't override any economic concerns in case of regular seasonal flu?

Regular seasonal flu has much lower inherent lethality and our critical-care infrastructure is geared to handle it without any special measures to control spread other than making vaccines available to high-risk groups.  Simply put, it is part of the base load on the healthcare system.  COVID-19 has more in common with the 1918 flu.

Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:31:43 PMThere are two ways of answering - to go into a hysteric mode, or to pull out a calculator and do some math.

If you do the second option, it turns out that quarantine is MARGINALLY justified in the current situation. Tweak some parameters - and you can get easily get "yes" or "no".

Having had to delve into the literature on cost-benefit analysis as part of research into the history of the British motorway network, I would not like to try to work out the saving lives versus saving the economy argument on the back of an envelope, even with an agreed value for one human life saved that can be used for assessing the cost-effectiveness of various public health interventions.  It really is a difficult modeling problem, with tons of potential for double-counting both benefits and costs (many of which are joint) and counting internal transfer payments (such as the $2 trillion stimulus) as a cost.

The one thing that is really clear is to act early, as that gives you the scope to be less drastic and to work with much smaller numbers in terms both of humans and money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:10:13 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:33:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:22:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
If Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.
Which is probably pretty adequate - until the supply chain for masks is established and those become  somewhat like socks.

My wife and I have made about two dozen home brew masks out of almost everything cloth we have laying around.  They can be pretty easily made from scrap material and old shirts in a pinch.
I have only 2 - but high quality ones. We also have about 10 medical ones from pre-crisi days.
Having a sewing machine - and knowing how to use that - definitely help.
Actually, there are posts on nextdoor where (I assume) old ladies with sewing hobby hand out masks for free.  Or maybe not-so-old ladies with a hobby but no job

My wife and I actually know how to sow, I was surprised that I still could after about two decades.  We got lucky and found a new sowing machine.  She has been busy making masks for her co-workers at the behavioral health facilities and for the family.  I'm hardly home so it's nice to have a ready supply that we can make on our own. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 16, 2020, 01:12:06 PM
Minnesota is doing really well. Anyone know why?

(Unrelated: in this context, it's sew, not sow)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:19:42 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 16, 2020, 12:45:11 PM
But no one needs a mask - something that covers your nose and mouth is fine.  Many are using bandanas. Even a t-shirt or winter scarf that's tied in the back covering your face is fine.
Ideally, you need something a bit more efficient with electrostatically charged fiber - but if we're settled with basic cotton cloth by now, scarf or bandana is a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 16, 2020, 01:09:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:31:43 PMA question to ask: why  public health and safety don't override any economic concerns in case of regular seasonal flu?

Regular seasonal flu has much lower inherent lethality and our critical-care infrastructure is geared to handle it without any special measures to control spread other than making vaccines available to high-risk groups.  Simply put, it is part of the base load on the healthcare system.  COVID-19 has more in common with the 1918 flu.

Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 12:31:43 PMThere are two ways of answering - to go into a hysteric mode, or to pull out a calculator and do some math.

If you do the second option, it turns out that quarantine is MARGINALLY justified in the current situation. Tweak some parameters - and you can get easily get "yes" or "no".

Having had to delve into the literature on cost-benefit analysis as part of research into the history of the British motorway network, I would not like to try to work out the saving lives versus saving the economy argument on the back of an envelope, even with an agreed value for one human life saved that can be used for assessing the cost-effectiveness of various public health interventions.  It really is a difficult modeling problem, with tons of potential for double-counting both benefits and costs (many of which are joint) and counting internal transfer payments (such as the $2 trillion stimulus) as a cost.

The one thing that is really clear is to act early, as that gives you the scope to be less drastic and to work with much smaller numbers in terms both of humans and money.

My back-of-envelope calculation is that with human life cost of $5M, and potential loss of 3M lives in US as a worst case scenario (1% mortality, 90% infection rate) total cost of epidemic mortality is $15T.
US annual GDP is $20T, so as a first order approximation is that few months of shutdown are a break even or better.
Flu with 10K deaths doesn't come close.

Then you may add  cost of recovery, multiply by efficiency, tweak $5M figure to account for the older age of most deaths and arrive to the result which matches your agenda.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 16, 2020, 01:31:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
with human life cost of $5M

Does this number keep doing down, or it is just that nobody can agree on the exact number? (I remember 7.8M and then 6.3M.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on April 16, 2020, 01:36:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 16, 2020, 01:31:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
with human life cost of $5M

Does this number keep doing down, or it is just that nobody can agree on the exact number? (I remember 7.8M and then 6.3M.)

You're worth more than me.  The world already got another 25 years of use out of me than it has from you at this point.  So you'll be closer to the upper, whereas, I'll be closer to the lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:36:46 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 16, 2020, 01:31:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
with human life cost of $5M

Does this number keep doing down, or it is just that nobody can agree on the exact number? (I remember 7.8M and then 6.3M.)

I was always under the impression that the figure was way lower.  Is there any information on how something like that can even be quantified?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:37:46 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 16, 2020, 01:31:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
with human life cost of $5M

Does this number keep doing down, or it is just that nobody can agree on the exact number? (I remember 7.8M and then 6.3M.)
Its an estimate - and more like a guestimate. You can choose amd number between $10M and $100K and justify it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on April 16, 2020, 01:38:16 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:36:46 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 16, 2020, 01:31:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
with human life cost of $5M

Does this number keep doing down, or it is just that nobody can agree on the exact number? (I remember 7.8M and then 6.3M.)

I was always under the impression that the figure was way lower.  Is there any information on how something like that can even be quantified?

Insurance companies do it every day.  They just won't show you how they make the sausage!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:42:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:36:46 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 16, 2020, 01:31:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
with human life cost of $5M

Does this number keep doing down, or it is just that nobody can agree on the exact number? (I remember 7.8M and then 6.3M.)

I was always under the impression that the figure was way lower.  Is there any information on how something like that can even be quantified?

One of the ways is to look at how much extra people are willing to pay for a car with a better crash rating or an airline ticket for better safety rating airline.
Nobody is willing to sell their life upfront, but incremental risk/ aquired cost ratio is pretty measurable.
UPD: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:45:23 PM
Quote from: MikieTimT on April 16, 2020, 01:38:16 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:36:46 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 16, 2020, 01:31:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 16, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
with human life cost of $5M

Does this number keep doing down, or it is just that nobody can agree on the exact number? (I remember 7.8M and then 6.3M.)

I was always under the impression that the figure was way lower.  Is there any information on how something like that can even be quantified?

Insurance companies do it every day.  They just won't show you how they make the sausage!

I was hoping for Fight Club-like cost analysis...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 16, 2020, 01:57:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:07:56 PM
They'll probably come out to the neighborhood of a 1% mortality rate at the end of the day.  Basing mortality rates off of confirmed cases isn't exactly the most accurate way to get a mortality rate.  The rate of infection is undoubted way higher than that confirmed case amount.  So while yes the mortality rate will be higher than the majority of flu seasons the flip side we aren't talking Black Death or even Spanish Flu.  So while measures have had an effect on the spread the virus in it's current form isn't even close to one of the deadliest that has been encountered in recorded history. 

Regardless it kind of makes me wish people would take things like heart disease much more seriously given that COVID-19 is pulling similar daily mortality numbers state side right now. 

The two differences right now between COVID-19 and the flu are:  someone can go longer spreading the virus without knowing with COVID-19, and that we have no way of stopping the spread (vaccine) or no real way to treat it (anti-virals).

So if we're not careful, the number of deaths **within a certain timeframe** is not finalized yet. The only way we're stopping the spread is physically, via physical-distancing (I prefer that term vs social-distancing).  The number of severe infections, which leads to deaths within a time frame, is what is being ignored by a lot of people when comparing this vs the flu.  Yes, the flu has had a comparable and even higher number of deaths in a full season when compared to COVID-19 so far...but the COVID-19 season is far from over (if there is even a season).

So...both COVID-19 and the flu are about trying to manage the number of severe infections in a specific timeframe.  With the flu, we have tools, and we have an idea of how long the season is.  With COVID-19, we don't know the seasonality, and the only tool we have is physical-distancing (we don't even have adequate testing yet) and we have no other tools.

All that said...it seems like we're getting to the point where some of the restrictions can be and probably should be relaxed in some areas...knowing that this is all a fluid situation...but I wish that people would recognize that it's a bittersweet idea...because we haven't solved this yet, not by a long shot. Because relaxing some of the restrictions will increase the risk of spread...the question is to what degree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 16, 2020, 02:07:36 PM
Quote from: kwellada on April 16, 2020, 10:16:20 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 14, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
The number of new cases in the U.S. is cratering dramatically. But the government will continue to use the virus as an excuse to trample our rights.

I predicted a long time ago this would happen. This is like how they used 9/11 and other crises.

Yesterday was the highest single day total of deaths.  Perhaps it's a bit early to be trotting out "freedumb" cries.  The only reason the infection and death rate isn't higher is because enough people have minded the guidelines and stay at home orders.  The fools who want to immediately go back to normal will make 2600 deaths a day seem like a low number before long. 

It sucks and I'm among the many going utterly stir crazy, but this is the way pandemics are curbed. 
Deaths is not a good indicator to use for making policy.  It lags realtime infections by 4-6 weeks.  Hospitalizations is, though - it lags by 1-2 weeks, but we realistically can't get realtime infection data because then you'd need to somehow ramp up testing a LOT more than we have even in NY.

Cuomo seems to be making policy based off the emotional impact of death data reflecting the infections that happened before he shut the state down.  I'm guessing that's where his ridiculous mandate to wear something that is impossible to obtain by his deadline unless you're willing to destroy your clothing came from.  The hospitalization numbers in his briefings show quite clearly that the existing policies were working well and we were already starting to climb down the curve.  Meanwhile I've been a complete emotional wreck over trying to figure out how the heck I'm supposed to comply with this mandate.  I don't own a bandana or anything like that.  I wouldn't know where to buy one.  I wouldn't even know what one normally uses them for other than this!

If there's anything this pandemic has shown, it's that my current system of "I can live independently but only if I build a metaphorical box where that which I can handle is rigidly placed into a routine with planning done a minimum of several weeks in advance, with all other stuff shut out" is not sustainable.  It was already causing problems for my life, and it's gotten a million times worse since.  I'm somehow going to need to figure out a way where I don't need to do that anymore.  I just wish I knew how.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on April 16, 2020, 02:15:26 PM
Update on Houston area:

While Harris County has over 4000 cases or so, there is good news.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-houston-death-rate-low-compared-major-us-cities/285-572f982e-4946-4499-bce9-e4d7f9a3563f

According to this article, Houston's death rate is low compared to other cities of its size in the US, so apparently Houston (and Texas in general) is doing something right, considering the other Texas counties on the same level as Houston.

Speaking on a personal level, about 40% of Brazoria County cases are deemed recovered, as of now. It also appears to me that the curve is flattening in my area. Honestly, I'm pretty impressed with my local leaders in how they've handled this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 02:15:58 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 16, 2020, 01:09:17 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 16, 2020, 12:10:24 PMIf Kentucky issues a "wear a mask" order, I'm SOL. I don't have a mask and am not sure where I could obtain one at a reasonable price. I'd probably wear a bandana around my face, though.

I don't want a mask order either.  We do have two masks, but they are both N95 (purchased long ago for a painting job), so to wear them in public would send a bad signal.  I'd rather not use something from the rag basket because we don't put anything in there until it is seriously holey, and I prefer to present a neat appearance in public.

....

As you can see further up the thread, I don't hesitate to wear an N95 in public. Like yours, it was purchased a while ago for some other purpose, and it was in an already-opened package, so I feel it would be inappropriate to donate it because it's not sterile. I was wearing it yesterday when I was at the UPS Store and the guy behind the counter also had on an N95.

I'm seeing more and more ads for things like masks with sports team logos and the like. My wife said she ordered masks with a Capitals logo for both of us for when our current N95 ones get too cruddy to wear.

The thing I don't entirely get are the people I see driving solo with masks on. There are some situations where I get it–the person may have been somewhere and touched something and now doesn't want to take the mask off until he can wash his hands. That makes sense to me because I did that yesterday when I stopped at the grocery store after the UPS Store. I had walked over there and to take the mask off, I would have to take my glasses off, but I didn't want to touch my glasses without washing my face, so I walked three-quarters of a mile home with the mask on. But some people seem to be wearing the masks everywhere they go, and that seems like overkill. (On Tuesday we waited until we were parked at Arlington Cemetery to put them on because at the entrance they need to see your face to compare to the ID you present.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 02:33:05 PM
I did go ahead and make one of my stimulus check purchases, a new mountain bike.  I've been looking into getting a new mountain bike for several years and it no doubt will be a huge aid getting up unimproved roads my Impreza can't go because of clearance.  I'll be buying a fresh set of tires next week, I'm down to 4mm of tread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 16, 2020, 02:48:29 PM
A month or 2 ago, if you went into a store (or particularly a bank) with a mask, they'd call the cops on you.

These days if you're without a mask, they call the cops on you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:47:24 AM
I was more intrigued as to what someone who was supposed to graduate this year would do...or if their plans might be altered for college.

As someone who is set to graduate with my BS in June, I was planning on leaving college to join the workforce. This wouldn't be impossible, but with the number of jobs not exactly growing, I'm going to instead proceed with an MS in a very closely-related field that will only take me one year to complete. I'm graduating this June without any debt thanks to a Post-9/11 GI Bill, so the MS will require me taking on some debt. But it's very little compared to many Masters programs, and the long-term benefits of the degree are such that I will likely make much more, and be able to hold higher-up positions, than I would with experience alone.

My mother works for the federal government, and does quite a lot of hiring. She has stressed to me that there are many, many jobs where you can get in with a very basic degree and experience, or just being a veteran (frankly). But if someone is looking for those really-high-ranking positions that pay big money, a proper degree is necessary. At the end of the day, you'll end up competing with people who do have those Masters degrees (or even Doctorates), and they'll likely have just as much experience. At that point, your degree (or lack thereof) will hold you back. Probably forever.

A lot of people seem to make the "Dirty Jobs/Mike Rowe" argument: find a good trade, go to school for a year, get an apprentice, join a union, profit. That's cool, and thank God we have people who do that. But that's not for everyone. Plus, even the best paid people in some of those industries aren't exactly making buku bucks. Good money, but not exactly "I'm sending you to Harvard when you're older" money, or "we're gonna have three kids and go on tons of vacations" money. My friend who works in HVAC is stoked about a potential raise to $25/hr; good for him at only 24, but that's with experience and a degree. Long term prospects aren't exactly $50/hr either. It's probably a good thing school was cheap. If it wasn't, it would take him decades to pay it off.




My stimulus check went right into my savings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 16, 2020, 03:21:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 01:36:46 PMI was always under the impression that the figure was way lower.  Is there any information on how something like that can even be quantified?

The basic technique that is used is hedonic pricing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_regression).  In essence, you are measuring what you are willing to pay to save a single human life.  As Kalvado notes, this will vary from one context to another, and within a given context according to how many lives may be lost in the same event (hence the observation that the public will demand more be spent per life lost in a mass fatality event than in things like car accidents that take just one or very few lives per incident).

It is not really a measure of what your life is worth to you, or my life is to me.  It is more a tool for comparing the cost efficiency of various interventions that can save lives.  If you are a traffic engineer considering two safety improvements that cost approximately the same, and one is estimated to save more lives than the other, then you assign the first one a higher priority.

In the health economics field, the concept of a disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is used to permit more fine-grained analysis.  Instead of valuing interventions in terms of lives saved, you assess them according to the "healthy" person-years of life they yield.  On that basis one could try to construct an argument that we are spending too much (in terms of forgone GDP) on measures with a relatively low yield in terms of DALYs given that COVID-19 preferentially attacks the elderly.  Such a project would be cold-blooded and raise questions about age discrimination, but one of the basic realities of cost-benefit analysis is that it is agnostic as to the distribution of the benefits.  It will tell you that an intervention is worth doing if the benefits exceed the cost, even if all the benefits accrue to just one member of the community.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:24:01 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:47:24 AM
I was more intrigued as to what someone who was supposed to graduate this year would do...or if their plans might be altered for college.

As someone who is set to graduate with my BS in June, I was planning on leaving college to join the workforce. This wouldn't be impossible, but with the number of jobs not exactly growing, I'm going to instead proceed with an MS in a very closely-related field that will only take me one year to complete. I'm graduating this June without any debt thanks to a Post-9/11 GI Bill, so the MS will require me taking on some debt. But it's very little compared to many Masters programs, and the long-term benefits of the degree are such that I will likely make much more, and be able to hold higher-up positions, than I would with experience alone.

My mother works for the federal government, and does quite a lot of hiring. She has stressed to me that there are many, many jobs where you can get in with a very basic degree and experience, or just being a veteran (frankly). But if someone is looking for those really-high-ranking positions that pay big money, a proper degree is necessary. At the end of the day, you'll end up competing with people who do have those Masters degrees (or even Doctorates), and they'll likely have just as much experience. At that point, your degree (or lack thereof) will hold you back. Probably forever.

A lot of people seem to make the "Dirty Jobs/Mike Rowe" argument: find a good trade, go to school for a year, get an apprentice, join a union, profit. That's cool, and thank God we have people who do that. But that's not for everyone. Plus, even the best paid people in some of those industries aren't exactly making buku bucks. Good money, but not exactly "I'm sending you to Harvard when you're olders" money, or "we're gonna have three kids and go on tons of vacation" money. My friend who works in HVAC is stoked about a potential raise to $25/hr; good for him at only 24, but that's with experience and a degree. Long term prospects aren't exactly $50/hr either. It's probably a good thing school was cheap. If it wasn't, it would take him decades to pay it off.




My stimulus check went right into my savings.

Out of curiosity what is the career field you're looking at?  That more than anything ought to sway the level of schooling someone would need or ought to be looking into.  It seems like most of the higher jobs in the business sector these days require degrees from name brand school, but they again that isn't my field so I'm legitimately curious. 

In my case I've always worked in physical security, risk management, and safety.  When I got in played a big part why I ended up getting as far as I have since there wasn't much secondary education until maybe this past decade (more so with the safety and risk managment stuff).  Then again I kind of fell into what I do as an offshoot or waiting until I was 20.5 years of age to apply for Law Enforcement jobs in Arizona, it was the closest analog I could find in the private world.  I did end up going to school at 22 but I never finished because I ended working on the road half the year a couple years later. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 16, 2020, 03:44:35 PM
Wiktionary defines it as Max describes it, but I had never heard it before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:50:54 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 16, 2020, 03:44:35 PM
Wiktionary defines it as Max describes it, but I had never heard it before.

I think it's mostly Midwestern slang or at least that's the only source I can ever recall hearing it from regularly.  It never occurred to me until now that it wasn't common speech. 

Edit:  Apparently it is thought to be slang sourced from the Vietnam War, go figure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 16, 2020, 03:53:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 

She might've had "beaucoup" in mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:54:57 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 16, 2020, 03:53:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 

She might've had "beaucoup" in mind.

Apparently that's what the soldiers in Vietnam thought also (certainly gives additional context to the prostitute scene in Full Metal Jacket).  Knowing some French I can understand kind of how you might confuse the two in causal passing...kind of. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 16, 2020, 04:00:24 PM
What's gonna happen in all these states that have ridiculously long martial law orders if the number of new cases just absolutely craters?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 16, 2020, 04:01:26 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 16, 2020, 04:00:24 PM
What's gonna happen in all these states that have ridiculously long martial law orders if the number of new cases just absolutely craters?

Then the governor can change it again, moving it sooner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 16, 2020, 03:53:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 

She might've had "beaucoup" in mind.

Ahhhh, OK, yes, if it had said "beaucoup," I would have known what it meant immediately. My mom liked to say "merci beaucoup" when I was growing up just because she liked the way it sounds. I have never seen that word spelled as "buku" before. I assume someone heard the French word, didn't know what it was, and tried to sound it out as though it were an English word.

Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
I've seen "buku" as an Anglican translation of the French word. No, it's not actually a word (the actual French word is correct), but this spelling does exist. Just informally, and mostly amongst people without any French familiarity.

Quote from: oscar on April 16, 2020, 03:53:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 

She might've had "beaucoup" in mind.

Love you long time. (https://youtu.be/-AkB5qi1r4Q)




Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:24:01 PM
Out of curiosity what is the career field you're looking at?  That more than anything ought to sway the level of schooling someone would need or ought to be looking into.  It seems like most of the higher jobs in the business sector these days require degrees from name brand school, but they again that isn't my field so I'm legitimately curious.

My BS is in Urban Design. It's a focus on public space design. Many students proceed into architectural degrees, but I'm proceeding into GIS work. My school offers a Masters in Geospatial Technologies. For the next 15 years, I'm more interested in experience, but the Masters will help me in the future, especially when it comes to potentially leading a department.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 16, 2020, 05:26:33 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
A lot of people seem to make the "Dirty Jobs/Mike Rowe" argument: find a good trade, go to school for a year, get an apprentice, join a union, profit. That's cool, and thank God we have people who do that. But that's not for everyone. Plus, even the best paid people in some of those industries aren't exactly making buku bucks. Good money, but not exactly "I'm sending you to Harvard when you're older" money, or "we're gonna have three kids and go on tons of vacations" money. My friend who works in HVAC is stoked about a potential raise to $25/hr; good for him at only 24, but that's with experience and a degree. Long term prospects aren't exactly $50/hr either. It's probably a good thing school was cheap. If it wasn't, it would take him decades to pay it off.

Not to mention that HVAC, electrical work, plumbing, etc. has a tendency to involve a lot of crawling around in hot/cold/dirty/confined spaces, and not everyone is physically or mentally capable of doing that. My wife's dad was an electrician and tells stories of the first words out of his mouth when he came home being "Don't hug me, I'm covered in fiberglass". Even if I could make $50/hour doing that, I think I would absolutely hate doing it and the money wouldn't be enough to compensate for that.

Trade jobs also tend to have higher inherent safety risk than white-collar jobs do, so one has to balance the wages against the possibility of getting electrocuted, losing a finger, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 16, 2020, 05:32:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 10:52:18 AM
^^^

Potentially 40k-120k in loans that affect your early adulthood is something I can't ever see as a worthwhile investment for early adulthood when alternatives like Junior College and the GI Bill are available.  My brother-in-law is a foreman and engineer at his job down in Tampa Area.  He just paid off his student loans two years ago, that's 15 years of debt...  In his case he actually made it in his career field but what about those who don't?  All of the sudden debt over that time scale in low-medium wage jobs is a boat anchor. 


The average student loan debt for an undergraduate is about $30,000.  You are correct that if a graduate doesn't land a job in his or her degree field that can be a problem, but on average it is a very wise investment.  Especially since the interest is tax deductible.

You are right that cheaper alternatives exist.  Like a junior college or tech school.  And the GI Bill, although the armed forces aren't for everyone and carry significant risks as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 16, 2020, 06:42:44 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money.

My parents say it as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 16, 2020, 06:50:55 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
My BS is in Urban Design.

There's more than one way to interpret this sentence. :-D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: DaBigE on April 16, 2020, 07:36:33 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 16, 2020, 06:50:55 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
My BS is in Urban Design.

There's more than one way to interpret this sentence. :-D

  :rofl:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 07:45:11 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 16, 2020, 06:50:55 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
My BS is in Urban Design.

There's more than one way to interpret this sentence. :-D

:-D :-D Yeah being able to say I got my BS is a fair bit of fun!

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2020, 05:26:33 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
A lot of people seem to make the "Dirty Jobs/Mike Rowe" argument: find a good trade, go to school for a year, get an apprentice, join a union, profit. That's cool, and thank God we have people who do that. But that's not for everyone. Plus, even the best paid people in some of those industries aren't exactly making buku bucks. Good money, but not exactly "I'm sending you to Harvard when you're older" money, or "we're gonna have three kids and go on tons of vacations" money. My friend who works in HVAC is stoked about a potential raise to $25/hr; good for him at only 24, but that's with experience and a degree. Long term prospects aren't exactly $50/hr either. It's probably a good thing school was cheap. If it wasn't, it would take him decades to pay it off.

Not to mention that HVAC, electrical work, plumbing, etc. has a tendency to involve a lot of crawling around in hot/cold/dirty/confined spaces, and not everyone is physically or mentally capable of doing that. My wife's dad was an electrician and tells stories of the first words out of his mouth when he came home being "Don't hug me, I'm covered in fiberglass". Even if I could make $50/hour doing that, I think I would absolutely hate doing it and the money wouldn't be enough to compensate for that.

Trade jobs also tend to have higher inherent safety risk than white-collar jobs do, so one has to balance the wages against the possibility of getting electrocuted, losing a finger, etc.

The crawling around crap is exactly why I have no interest in it. Getting into crawl spaces, dark areas, dealing with pests and insects...fuck that, I'm out. I'd rather make enough money to pay someone else to do it for me lol

My friend in the HVAC industry has already injured himself on a few occasions. Never serious injuries, just lots of cuts and a couple major ones. Still though, I'm not getting injured doing computer work. The one thing I do envy is their exposure to the outdoors. Short of working with a window open, I'm not outside doing computer work (unless I'm working from a porch or balcony), nor am I getting much fitness in. Still, I'd rather visit the gym in the morning or night to accomplish that, then getting it day in and day out while potentially getting soaked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 16, 2020, 08:14:55 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 16, 2020, 06:42:44 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money.

My parents say it as well.
In the Northeast, it was common slang when I was a kid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 16, 2020, 08:23:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 
I believe the correct phrase for this context is "hella cash".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FFyZA_onM8
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 16, 2020, 08:38:32 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."

https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=21374.0
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 08:51:49 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 16, 2020, 08:23:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 
I believe the correct phrase for this context is "hella cash".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FFyZA_onM8

In all the years I've lived and worked in California I have yet to hear an actual person in normal speech use "hella"  in a sentence.  Sometimes it gets brought up sarcastically when the over use of things like "The 5"  or "The CHP"  come up.  Most Californians don't dress like Final Fantasy characters either...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:23:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 08:51:49 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 16, 2020, 08:23:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 
I believe the correct phrase for this context is "hella cash".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FFyZA_onM8

In all the years I've lived and worked in California I have yet to hear an actual person in normal speech use "hella"  in a sentence.  Sometimes it gets brought up sarcastically when the over use of things like "The 5"  or "The CHP"  come up.  Most Californians don't dress like Final Fantasy characters either...

https://youtu.be/7pohEb7DUac
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:31:10 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 07:45:11 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 16, 2020, 06:50:55 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
My BS is in Urban Design.

There's more than one way to interpret this sentence. :-D

:-D :-D Yeah being able to say I got my BS is a fair bit of fun!

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2020, 05:26:33 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
A lot of people seem to make the "Dirty Jobs/Mike Rowe" argument: find a good trade, go to school for a year, get an apprentice, join a union, profit. That's cool, and thank God we have people who do that. But that's not for everyone. Plus, even the best paid people in some of those industries aren't exactly making buku bucks. Good money, but not exactly "I'm sending you to Harvard when you're older" money, or "we're gonna have three kids and go on tons of vacations" money. My friend who works in HVAC is stoked about a potential raise to $25/hr; good for him at only 24, but that's with experience and a degree. Long term prospects aren't exactly $50/hr either. It's probably a good thing school was cheap. If it wasn't, it would take him decades to pay it off.

Not to mention that HVAC, electrical work, plumbing, etc. has a tendency to involve a lot of crawling around in hot/cold/dirty/confined spaces, and not everyone is physically or mentally capable of doing that. My wife's dad was an electrician and tells stories of the first words out of his mouth when he came home being "Don't hug me, I'm covered in fiberglass". Even if I could make $50/hour doing that, I think I would absolutely hate doing it and the money wouldn't be enough to compensate for that.

Trade jobs also tend to have higher inherent safety risk than white-collar jobs do, so one has to balance the wages against the possibility of getting electrocuted, losing a finger, etc.

The crawling around crap is exactly why I have no interest in it. Getting into crawl spaces, dark areas, dealing with pests and insects...fuck that, I'm out. I'd rather make enough money to pay someone else to do it for me lol

My friend in the HVAC industry has already injured himself on a few occasions. Never serious injuries, just lots of cuts and a couple major ones. Still though, I'm not getting injured doing computer work. The one thing I do envy is their exposure to the outdoors. Short of working with a window open, I'm not outside doing computer work (unless I'm working from a porch or balcony), nor am I getting much fitness in. Still, I'd rather visit the gym in the morning or night to accomplish that, then getting it day in and day out while potentially getting soaked.

Responding to what you said earlier, yes I can see the need to higher education something like Urban Design. 

That said, I guess the crafts and trades stuff really requires a desire or interest in that line of work to be successful in it.  I've been through plenty god awful camera installation which used to require more ability to stand extremely dirty (potentially hazardous) environments rather than actual skill. 

To that end I've never been interested in an office job or being tied to a 9-5 schedule.  About the worst thing that I ever happened to me in the "physical security" stand point is getting stabbed in the hand once and a couple tussles here or there.  The irony is that my Dad was a software designer and programmer before that was a considered a "legitimate" field of work that wasn't the domain of nerd types.  He actually did make it pretty far in his field trying to get an early online provider (Prodigy Online) a success.  I picked up a lot of skills from him in that realm but I always leaned towards the mechanical stuff.  If I didn't end up in the field I did I would probably be a mechanic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 09:32:34 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:23:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 08:51:49 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 16, 2020, 08:23:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 
I believe the correct phrase for this context is "hella cash".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FFyZA_onM8

In all the years I've lived and worked in California I have yet to hear an actual person in normal speech use "hella"  in a sentence.  Sometimes it gets brought up sarcastically when the over use of things like "The 5"  or "The CHP"  come up.  Most Californians don't dress like Final Fantasy characters either...

https://youtu.be/7pohEb7DUac

Damn it Cartman, stop saying hella!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2020, 09:51:14 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."

Not to pile on here, but it's spelled "voilà," with an accent grave. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:59:50 PM
Quote from: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2020, 09:51:14 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."

Not to pile on here, but it's spelled "voilà," with an accent grave. 

Yeah, but I didn't know how to type that on my PC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2020, 10:59:37 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:59:50 PM
Quote from: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2020, 09:51:14 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."

Not to pile on here, but it's spelled "voilà," with an accent grave. 

Yeah, but I didn’t know how to type that on my PC.

It's pretty easy. I just entered v o i l a into Google, and then cut and paste the correct spelling.  :-D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 17, 2020, 12:41:50 AM
Official guidance from the feds regarding phased relaxation of restrictions (https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6840723/Packet-for-Governors.pdf)... for whatever it is worth.

For those of us in the northeast, that is probably nothing as I do not expect the governors in the DE/NJ/PA/NY/CT/RI/MA coalition to pay this any mind. Instead, Governor Cuomo will be deciding what NY does and the rest of the states in that bloc will likely simply follow his lead. Cuomo has, of course, already outlined a different plan of his own.

The federal plan seems to read like it is aimed at states where the size of the outbreak has not been significant. For many states it may be somewhat reasonable to start loosening restrictions after a 14-day downward trend, but states where the disease blew up more before interventions could slow its transmission are going to need more time to get the number of cases down before it becomes responsible to consider any such thing.

It also does not make any sense to me that movie theaters - venues where large numbers of people congregate indoors - would be permitted to reopen in phase one. Indeed, for the same reason, houses of worship objectively should not be in phase one, though I can appreciate the political reasons why they are.
(On the other hand, if you want to show a movie or hold a religious service outdoors, that is safer than doing so indoors and might be okay)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on April 17, 2020, 01:19:05 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:59:50 PM
Quote from: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2020, 09:51:14 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."
Not to pile on here, but it's spelled "voilà," with an accent grave. 
Yeah, but I didn't know how to type that on my PC.

Copy it from your character map. If you're on your phone, a lot of keypads (like Swiftkey, for example), have all kinds of characters available. They appear if you hold down a letter key.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: briantroutman on April 17, 2020, 01:30:22 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Brought to mind the Richard Lewis commercials for Boku juice drinks that I remember seeing in the '90s.

Because of this product, I spent several years as a child thinking that beaucoup was spelled boku. Coincidentally at the same age, Get Smart taught me that chaos was spelled kaos.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 17, 2020, 01:33:23 AM
Quote from: briantroutman on April 17, 2020, 01:30:22 AM
Brought to mind the Richard Lewis commercials for Boku juice drinks that I remember seeing in the '90s.

Because of this product, I spent several years as a child thinking that beaucoup was spelled boku. Coincidentally at the same age, Get Smart taught me that chaos was spelled kaos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JEbnWl8iz0

Sidenote: as a fan of Curb Your Enthusiasm...holy fuck Richard Lewis has aged badly. He's like the damn crypt-keeper now. He looks 30 in this video by comparison.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 17, 2020, 08:20:22 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 09:59:50 PM
Quote from: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2020, 09:51:14 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."

Not to pile on here, but it's spelled "voilà," with an accent grave. 

Yeah, but I didn't know how to type that on my PC.

à can by typed by holding down the Alt key and typing 133.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 17, 2020, 08:26:20 AM
On my Mac, it's option-` + a. No need to memorize numbers for every single accented letter.

When I was working at Stop & Shop, every item had a description to go with the bar code. There was a frozen food sub-brand that was called Voilà, but two of the ~12 items under that brand were labeled "Viola" instead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 17, 2020, 09:46:21 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 17, 2020, 12:41:50 AM
Official guidance from the feds regarding phased relaxation of restrictions (https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6840723/Packet-for-Governors.pdf)... for whatever it is worth.

For those of us in the northeast, that is probably nothing as I do not expect the governors in the DE/NJ/PA/NY/CT/RI/MA coalition to pay this any mind. Instead, Governor Cuomo will be deciding what NY does and the rest of the states in that bloc will likely simply follow his lead. Cuomo has, of course, already outlined a different plan of his own.

The federal plan seems to read like it is aimed at states where the size of the outbreak has not been significant. For many states it may be somewhat reasonable to start loosening restrictions after a 14-day downward trend, but states where the disease blew up more before interventions could slow its transmission are going to need more time to get the number of cases down before it becomes responsible to consider any such thing.

It also does not make any sense to me that movie theaters - venues where large numbers of people congregate indoors - would be permitted to reopen in phase one. Indeed, for the same reason, houses of worship objectively should not be in phase one, though I can appreciate the political reasons why they are.
(On the other hand, if you want to show a movie or hold a religious service outdoors, that is safer than doing so indoors and might be okay)

If you ask me, they should start testing kids as well. That way, we could know whether kids are "silent spreaders", and schools could reopen safely, which solves the problem of other businesses not being able to reopen as long as schools remain shut. CDC and FEMA's plan prioritized school reopenings, but the Feds' plan doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 17, 2020, 01:23:16 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 08:51:49 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 16, 2020, 08:23:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 
I believe the correct phrase for this context is "hella cash".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FFyZA_onM8

In all the years I've lived and worked in California I have yet to hear an actual person in normal speech use "hella"  in a sentence.  Sometimes it gets brought up sarcastically when the over use of things like "The 5"  or "The CHP"  come up.  Most Californians don't dress like Final Fantasy characters either...
Well, most people don't live in a video game published by Square Enix, and the game is set in the Pacific Northwest (Arcadia Bay, OR specifically - based off the real-life Tillamook/Garibaldi/Cape Meares area), so that explains part of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 17, 2020, 01:27:58 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 17, 2020, 01:23:16 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 08:51:49 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 16, 2020, 08:23:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 03:41:22 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 03:10:58 PM
.... buku bucks....

????? What is "buku"????

Slang for "a lot."    My mom used to say that when attempting to describe a large amount of anything, especially money. 
I believe the correct phrase for this context is "hella cash".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FFyZA_onM8

In all the years I've lived and worked in California I have yet to hear an actual person in normal speech use "hella"  in a sentence.  Sometimes it gets brought up sarcastically when the over use of things like "The 5"  or "The CHP"  come up.  Most Californians don't dress like Final Fantasy characters either...
Well, most people don't live in a video game published by Square Enix, and the game is set in the Pacific Northwest (Arcadia Bay, OR specifically - based off the real-life Tillamook/Garibaldi/Cape Meares area), so that explains part of that.

I just pieced together that the video was from a Square game...now it makes actual sense.  I haven't played a Square Game since Final Fantasy 13 but that look is a dead ringer for what was common in those last couple games. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 17, 2020, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:24:01 PM
Out of curiosity what is the career field you're looking at?  That more than anything ought to sway the level of schooling someone would need or ought to be looking into.  It seems like most of the higher jobs in the business sector these days require degrees from name brand school, but they again that isn't my field so I'm legitimately curious.

My BS is in Urban Design. It's a focus on public space design. Many students proceed into architectural degrees, but I'm proceeding into GIS work. My school offers a Masters in Geospatial Technologies. For the next 15 years, I'm more interested in experience, but the Masters will help me in the future, especially when it comes to potentially leading a department.

20 years ago, it was called Geography.  :) Its how I got my BA around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 17, 2020, 11:05:03 PM
Quote from: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 17, 2020, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:24:01 PM
Out of curiosity what is the career field you're looking at?  That more than anything ought to sway the level of schooling someone would need or ought to be looking into.  It seems like most of the higher jobs in the business sector these days require degrees from name brand school, but they again that isn't my field so I'm legitimately curious.

My BS is in Urban Design. It's a focus on public space design. Many students proceed into architectural degrees, but I'm proceeding into GIS work. My school offers a Masters in Geospatial Technologies. For the next 15 years, I'm more interested in experience, but the Masters will help me in the future, especially when it comes to potentially leading a department.

20 years ago, it was called Geography.  :) Its how I got my BA around here.
I'm considering majoring in geography. That or statistics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 17, 2020, 11:33:54 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 17, 2020, 09:46:21 AM
That way, we could know whether kids are "silent spreaders", and schools could reopen safely, which solves the problem of other businesses not being able to reopen as long as schools remain shut.

See I would argue schools reopening should be one of the lowest priorities given that schools do not generate economic activity by being physically in session, and teachers are all still working anyway.

As for the "problem" that businesses can't reopen if schools don't, I don't see this as being a problem sufficiently critical that those two things must inherently be coupled. Yes, this is a major problem for you personally if:
- you have young kids
- you do not have a normally stay-at-home parent
- you do not have a parent who can work from home, AND
- you do not have a nearby friend or relative who is available to watch your kids during the day

But only a minority of the workforce has the intersection of all those criteria that make it an issue. Everyone else can go back to work with schools closed no problem, and if someone finds themselves personally in the situation where they cannot return to work until schools/daycare centers reopen... then they can stay home and continue collecting unemployment until schools reopen.

If we insist on delaying business reopenings purely so we can do them simultaneously with school/daycare reopenings, we're shooting ourselves in the foot economically, and creating a situation where a lot of people are going to get pissed off because "well this isn't a problem for me, why can't I go back to work yet?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 17, 2020, 11:40:29 PM
Quote from: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 17, 2020, 10:40:21 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 16, 2020, 04:09:53 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2020, 03:24:01 PM
Out of curiosity what is the career field you're looking at?  That more than anything ought to sway the level of schooling someone would need or ought to be looking into.  It seems like most of the higher jobs in the business sector these days require degrees from name brand school, but they again that isn't my field so I'm legitimately curious.

My BS is in Urban Design. It's a focus on public space design. Many students proceed into architectural degrees, but I'm proceeding into GIS work. My school offers a Masters in Geospatial Technologies. For the next 15 years, I'm more interested in experience, but the Masters will help me in the future, especially when it comes to potentially leading a department.

20 years ago, it was called Geography.  :) Its how I got my BA around here.

Universities with a "School of Geography" very often put GIS within it. My school does not, so it's under "Urban Studies".

But yeah, definitely the study of geography, although my school stresses the importance of the context: it's not just "where are wildfires more likely next year". It's also "do higher-end parts of a city have more square-footage of park space?", or "do we have enough food trucks?", etc, etc. They're all related to spatial studies (hence "geospatial") but it's a huge area of study now. Certainly more so than when it took off in the 90s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 17, 2020, 11:44:06 PM
Funny the topic of kids has come up.  This whole virus thing has been a turn off to the prospect of my wife and I having kids given how much chaos it has caused with immediate family.  We watch our 11 year old niece until the end of the school year right now.  Fortunately that's an age where she can take care of herself at home so it hasn't been that big of a deal aside from wondering if she will be held back.  Younger kids would be a huge issue since we both work which would require an expensive sitter or someone saying home.  Near term it doesn't seem economically feasible given all the uncertainty.  Given we are both close to 40 this might be the final nail in the coffin in the prospect of kids.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 18, 2020, 01:03:27 AM
The stay-at-home order has been great for my kids and me.  My ex-wife and I shared custody of them (I had them every weekend).  Due to the virus (ex-wife was concerned about possible exposure through her significant other's employment), I now have both kids here full-time, albeit that they're quite grown.  Has been a chance to feel more like a family.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 18, 2020, 09:21:43 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 17, 2020, 11:33:54 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 17, 2020, 09:46:21 AM
That way, we could know whether kids are "silent spreaders", and schools could reopen safely, which solves the problem of other businesses not being able to reopen as long as schools remain shut.

See I would argue schools reopening should be one of the lowest priorities given that schools do not generate economic activity by being physically in session, and teachers are all still working anyway.

As for the "problem" that businesses can't reopen if schools don't, I don't see this as being a problem sufficiently critical that those two things must inherently be coupled. Yes, this is a major problem for you personally if:
- you have young kids
- you do not have a normally stay-at-home parent
- you do not have a parent who can work from home, AND
- you do not have a nearby friend or relative who is available to watch your kids during the day

But only a minority of the workforce has the intersection of all those criteria that make it an issue. Everyone else can go back to work with schools closed no problem, and if someone finds themselves personally in the situation where they cannot return to work until schools/daycare centers reopen... then they can stay home and continue collecting unemployment until schools reopen.

If we insist on delaying business reopenings purely so we can do them simultaneously with school/daycare reopenings, we're shooting ourselves in the foot economically, and creating a situation where a lot of people are going to get pissed off because "well this isn't a problem for me, why can't I go back to work yet?"
Two points I would like to clarify:
1) The "nearby friend or relative" thing is still problematic considering that we shouldn't even be seeing those people anyway.
2) Try telling that to governor Cuomo. For those of you still confused why NY (or NJ, CT, etc.) hasn't shut down schools until September statewide already, he's using the logic of "schools closed implies businesses closed", compliant with CDC/FEMA, but not with Trump's plan/your opinion. Though of course I wouldn't be surprised of Cuomo chose to disregard both of them...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 18, 2020, 10:13:24 AM
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/murphy-not-ready-to-let-you-pump-your-own-gas-despite-coronavirus-concerns.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 18, 2020, 11:17:37 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 18, 2020, 10:13:24 AM
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/murphy-not-ready-to-let-you-pump-your-own-gas-despite-coronavirus-concerns.html (https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/murphy-not-ready-to-let-you-pump-your-own-gas-despite-coronavirus-concerns.html)

Damn this sounds too much like an Onion article on the surface though the New Jersey self service gas debate in the middle of the COVID-19 scare.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 18, 2020, 11:17:53 AM
I have a plan for gradual reopening (to go up a phase, there has to be a noticeable declining trend in new cases over 2-4 weeks):
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III

I also wouldn't be surprised to see major airports implement temperature checks (those were implemented in parts of Asia after the SARS epidemic in 2003; SARS is a cousin of COVID-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on April 18, 2020, 02:15:58 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 16, 2020, 02:15:26 PM
Speaking on a personal level, about 40% of Brazoria County cases are deemed recovered, as of now.

I spoke too soon. Out of about 300 cases in Brazoria County, over 50% are recovered.

Are any other counties or states like this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 18, 2020, 02:19:23 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 18, 2020, 02:15:58 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 16, 2020, 02:15:26 PM
Speaking on a personal level, about 40% of Brazoria County cases are deemed recovered, as of now.

I spoke too soon. Out of about 300 cases in Brazoria County, over 50% are recovered.

Are any other counties or states like this?

Minnesota
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 18, 2020, 02:40:00 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 18, 2020, 02:19:23 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 18, 2020, 02:15:58 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on April 16, 2020, 02:15:26 PM
Speaking on a personal level, about 40% of Brazoria County cases are deemed recovered, as of now.

I spoke too soon. Out of about 300 cases in Brazoria County, over 50% are recovered.

Are any other counties or states like this?

Minnesota

If recall correctly when California was at about 24,000 cases a couple days back the number of recoveries was about 11,000-12,000.  The data I was looking at seems to have been withdrawn from the source I was looking at since. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 18, 2020, 11:11:45 PM
Michigan's curve looks to be starting to flatten. For a couple of weeks, Michigan was #3 in total cases (only behind New York and New Jersey). Over the last few days, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania have passed Michigan and California and Illinois are likely to pass MI sometime in the next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 18, 2020, 11:14:50 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 18, 2020, 11:11:45 PM
Michigan's curve looks to be starting to flatten. For a couple of weeks, Michigan was #3 in total cases (only behind New York and New Jersey). Over the last few days, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania have passed Michigan and California and Illinois are likely to pass MI sometime in the next week.

Apparently five counties in the UP still have no reported cases...what a shock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 18, 2020, 11:23:10 PM
Just wondering if anyone else here works in or has a household member who works in a hospital.  My wife is a respiratory therapist and with this being a respiratory virus she's right in the thick of it.  Her hospital typically has 3-5 vented patients at any given time and now has 10-12.  I guarantee you the idiots out protesting stay at home orders don't have close family members working at hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 18, 2020, 11:26:52 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 18, 2020, 11:23:10 PM
Just wondering if anyone else here works in or has a household member who works in a hospital.  My wife is a respiratory therapist and with this being a respiratory virus she's right in the thick of it.  Her hospital typically has 3-5 vented patients at any given time and now has 10-12.  I guarantee you the idiots out protesting stay at home orders don't have close family members working at hospitals.

My wife does and has picked up a bunch of extra shifts.  So far Fresno County hasn't been hit all that hard (I think we passed 300 confirmed cases this week) but she works in a department that isn't involved with care that would directly interact with a COVID patient.  My wife has actually been pushing me to find a remote BLM (like the Diablo or Temblor Ranges) hike that is open so we can get out of the house and away from people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 18, 2020, 11:36:16 PM
Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 18, 2020, 11:52:31 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 18, 2020, 11:36:16 PM
Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 18, 2020, 11:54:10 PM
Quote from: CtrlAltDel on April 16, 2020, 09:51:14 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 16, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."

Not to pile on here, but it's spelled "voilà," with an accent grave.

This reminds me of Naomi on "Mama's Family" mispronounciating the word.  She unveiled something, I think a food item, and excitedly said "viola!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 19, 2020, 12:09:04 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 18, 2020, 11:36:16 PM
Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

I would not interpret this as Delta wagering it will be October before people are allowed to fly places again. Rather, I would interpret it as a move by Delta to get people comfortable with booking trips for the summer who otherwise would not for fear of losing money if they have to cancel them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on April 19, 2020, 10:14:23 AM
It's fast getting to the point with me that "Life itself is a risk, so let's go back to living it".

:no:

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:17:51 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 19, 2020, 10:14:23 AM
It's fast getting to the point with me that "Life itself is a risk, so let's go back to living it".

:no:

Mike
Well we can't social distance forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 19, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:48:38 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.
January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 19, 2020, 10:56:29 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:48:38 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.
January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

I don't see a way of safely having students together in a classroom, or more importantly, living in dorms, until we have a vaccine or a treatment.

I think we are going to get an "interim lockdown" of sorts, with relaxing of the state we're in now but still many restrictions until we get a vaccine or treatment.

1) No crowds at concerts, sporting events, etc.
2) Stores and museums can be open but must limit the number of patrons in the building and have paths/lines marked out on the floor to help shoppers keep their distance from each other
3) Workplaces can reopen with increased telework and reconfiguration of office space to keep workers 6 feet apart from each other

Residential buildings for students are almost certainly going to need to remain closed.  Classes are going to need to be online unless you can manage spacing students all 6 feet from each other in classrooms.

Casinos are going to be especially problematic.  Hard to open casinos and keep people 6 feet from each other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:57:26 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:56:29 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:48:38 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.
January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

I don't see a way of safely having students together in a classroom, or more importantly, living in dorms, until we have a vaccine or a treatment.

I think we are going to get an "interim lockdown" of sorts, with relaxing of the state we're in now but still many restrictions until we get a vaccine or treatment.

1) No crowds at concerts, sporting events, etc.
2) Stores and museums can be open but must limit the number of patrons in the building and have paths/lines marked out on the floor to help shoppers keep their distance from each other
3) Workplaces can reopen with increased telework and reconfiguration of office space to keep workers 6 feet apart from each other

Residential buildings for students are almost certainly going to need to remain closed.  Classes are going to need to be online unless you can manage spacing students all 6 feet from each other in classrooms.

Casinos are going to be especially problematic.  Hard to open casinos and keep people 6 feet from each other.
Wow online classes for over half a year I might go crazy by October.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 11:32:20 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:56:29 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:48:38 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.
January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

I don't see a way of safely having students together in a classroom, or more importantly, living in dorms, until we have a vaccine or a treatment.

I think we are going to get an "interim lockdown" of sorts, with relaxing of the state we're in now but still many restrictions until we get a vaccine or treatment.

1) No crowds at concerts, sporting events, etc.
2) Stores and museums can be open but must limit the number of patrons in the building and have paths/lines marked out on the floor to help shoppers keep their distance from each other
3) Workplaces can reopen with increased telework and reconfiguration of office space to keep workers 6 feet apart from each other

Residential buildings for students are almost certainly going to need to remain closed.  Classes are going to need to be online unless you can manage spacing students all 6 feet from each other in classrooms.

Casinos are going to be especially problematic.  Hard to open casinos and keep people 6 feet from each other.
Can be something along the lines of half online. 3 days online, 2 in person, halfclass size- or walls removed for double sized rooms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 19, 2020, 12:24:25 PM
I agree that we are likely to be under abnormal measures--not full lockdown, but social distancing mandatory in many, many contexts--until one of the following conditions is met:

*  A cheap, safe, and efficacious vaccine is available and is being produced at scale (the last is actually a nontrivial problem since we would be looking to do ~300 million in the US, not just the small fraction that are newborns or over 65 as with existing childhood immunizations and seasonal flu vaccines)

*  A cheap, safe, and effective treatment is available with rapid turnaround

*  Some combination of cheap, reliable, and highly convenient test and infrastructure for effectively instant contact tracing is available, such that any fresh outbreaks can be shut down while cases are still in the dozens even when typical super-spreading contexts (such as mass gatherings) are taken into account

I frankly think the third condition is more likely to be met than the first two.  We have been trying for a HIV vaccine for over three decades now, and still don't have one--indeed, we have run through multiple vaccine candidates that actually increase susceptibility to HIV.  The antiviral drugs we have in hand right now have largely been developed for viruses we have known about for years; their efficacy against COVID-19 is largely still unknown and given how bad things can get very quickly for patients who are elderly or have comorbidities, any that are found to be effective really probably should be produced at a scale that allows them to be used prophylactically.

On the other hand, I've seen reports of a device currently under development that would be able to detect COVID-19 on your breath, give you an instant answer, and cut the 10% false negative rate of current tests down to nothing.  If this works, and can be produced at the same large scale as, say, home glucose testers, it might be a real game-changer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 01:15:12 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 19, 2020, 12:24:25 PM

*  A cheap, safe, and efficacious vaccine is available and is being produced at scale (the last is actually a nontrivial problem since we would be looking to do ~300 million in the US, not just the small fraction that are newborns or over 65 as with existing childhood immunizations and seasonal flu vaccines)
This is when flu immunization effort can pay off and those capacities can be finally put to a good use.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 19, 2020, 12:24:25 PM
On the other hand, I've seen reports of a device currently under development that would be able to detect COVID-19 on your breath, give you an instant answer, and cut the 10% false negative rate of current tests down to nothing.  If this works, and can be produced at the same large scale as, say, home glucose testers, it might be a real game-changer.
Highly doubtful. What I hear is a lot of false negatives come down to not enough viral material in nasal cavity. May explain why runaway infection still has a pretty modest R0.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 19, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 01:15:12 PMHighly doubtful. What I hear is a lot of false negatives come down to not enough viral material in nasal cavity. May explain why runaway infection still has a pretty modest R0.

I have heard the same thing.  My understanding is that the breath test currently being developed is supposed to catch virus that is in the lungs and is breathed out, so it doesn't rely on a swab finding virus in the back of the nose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on April 19, 2020, 01:36:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 18, 2020, 11:52:31 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 18, 2020, 11:36:16 PM
Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.

I took some of the stimulus money I received this week and stimulated both United Airlines and Outrigger Resorts for a Kauai trip later this year.  The prices were pretty low, there aren't any fees for changing or cancelling the flight (the air fare would go back into "travel funds" that could be used up to a year from now) and the resort deposit is fully refundable.

I imagine when the travel industry is ready to get rolling again there will be $99 or less sale fares to anywhere in the country but the seats will be limited, demand will be high and it will be next to impossible to book cheap travel on the dates you want.  Likewise with hotel deals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 01:36:53 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 19, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 01:15:12 PMHighly doubtful. What I hear is a lot of false negatives come down to not enough viral material in nasal cavity. May explain why runaway infection still has a pretty modest R0.

I have heard the same thing.  My understanding is that the breath test currently being developed is supposed to catch virus that is in the lungs and is breathed out, so it doesn't rely on a swab finding virus in the back of the nose.
If that was the case, a lot of virus would end up in the upper respiratory tract, and infection would be spreading way faster. I don't believe in free viral particles, surface tension would prevent that. It has to be a droplet - and those don't generally come out of normal breath.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 19, 2020, 02:17:05 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on April 19, 2020, 01:36:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 18, 2020, 11:52:31 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 18, 2020, 11:36:16 PM
Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.

I took some of the stimulus money I received this week and stimulated both United Airlines and Outrigger Resorts for a Kauai trip later this year.  The prices were pretty low, there aren't any fees for changing or cancelling the flight (the air fare would go back into "travel funds" that could be used up to a year from now) and the resort deposit is fully refundable.

I imagine when the travel industry is ready to get rolling again there will be $99 or less sale fares to anywhere in the country but the seats will be limited, demand will be high and it will be next to impossible to book cheap travel on the dates you want.  Likewise with hotel deals.
Keep in mind that Hawaii is probably going to be the last state to let its guard down - I don't know the details but they consider non-essential travel a misdemeanor and are mandating quarantine of 14 days max.  There is an outside chance it could be still in place in July to October timeframe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on April 19, 2020, 02:37:08 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 19, 2020, 02:17:05 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on April 19, 2020, 01:36:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 18, 2020, 11:52:31 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 18, 2020, 11:36:16 PM
Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.

I took some of the stimulus money I received this week and stimulated both United Airlines and Outrigger Resorts for a Kauai trip later this year.  The prices were pretty low, there aren't any fees for changing or cancelling the flight (the air fare would go back into "travel funds" that could be used up to a year from now) and the resort deposit is fully refundable.

I imagine when the travel industry is ready to get rolling again there will be $99 or less sale fares to anywhere in the country but the seats will be limited, demand will be high and it will be next to impossible to book cheap travel on the dates you want.  Likewise with hotel deals.
Keep in mind that Hawaii is probably going to be the last state to let its guard down - I don't know the details but they consider non-essential travel a misdemeanor and are mandating quarantine of 14 days max.  There is an outside chance it could be still in place in July to October timeframe.
Well sure, if you're booking something it's a good idea to take a couple minutes to read the terms and conditions and make sure you're going to be able to get a refund easily if this drags on longer than we think (or if there's a second wave).  I'd be very hesitant about booking any of those super-cheap Priceline deals, for that reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 19, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
The USNS comfort and the Javits Center largely remain empty of COVID-19 patients even as NYC is coming down from the apex.  Waiting to open up the economy at this point is just delaying the second wave of infections from starting.  Sure, we can all shelter in place until they come up with a vaccine in a year but that's just not practical.  The whole point of flattening the curve was to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun and that has been accomplished in the first wave.  Here are 3 reasons why the NYC health care system won't be overrun if the economy reopens:

#1.  Herd immunity gained from the the first wave will reduce the infection rate of the second wave (widespread anti-body tests will give us a better idea to the percentage of herd immunity present... the governor will wait for the anti-body tests before making a decision to start opening the economy which is reasonable).

#2.  Even if the economy reopens, people will continue to wear masks and socially distance lowering the contagion rate (something that wasn't happening before the first wave).

#3.  A percentage of the population will continue to shelter in place even after the executive orders are lifted.  Less people out and about compared to the first wave of infections will lower the contagion rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:42:12 PM
All I'm getting out of this thread is that armchair analysis by non-experts will be our doom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 03:53:45 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:42:12 PM
All I'm getting out of this thread is that armchair analysis by non-experts will be our doom.
I'm afraid, there are no true experts to be had. Virology, epidemiology, psychology, economy, legal aspects are interweaved, all  have different requirements - often contradictory; and I suspect this will get resolved via try-and-fail methodology. A lot of  "I told ya!" and "It was obvious!" is to be heard. I don't want to be in charge of all this. Maybe someone who lived through 1918 Spanish flu could help coordinating things - but those are not in their best shape by now...
While we're at this - is it just me, or Cuomo actually looks 10-15 years older than he did last year?   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 19, 2020, 03:59:09 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:42:12 PM
All I'm getting out of this thread is that armchair analysis by non-experts will be our doom.

I trust Dr Fauci more than I trust the "wannabe's" of "Dr" Phil, Dr Oz or Dr Drew.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 04:00:03 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.
CDC failed so miserably in the beginning of the situation that I don't have enough salt to take with their advice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 04:12:43 PM


Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 04:00:03 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.
CDC failed so miserably in the beginning of the situation that I don't have enough salt to take with their advice.
I blame the Republican Administration for the botched response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 04:39:24 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 04:12:43 PM


Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 04:00:03 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.
CDC failed so miserably in the beginning of the situation that I don't have enough salt to take with their advice.
I blame the Republican Administration for the botched response.
Let's stray away from politics...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 04:49:47 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 04:12:43 PM


Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 04:00:03 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.
CDC failed so miserably in the beginning of the situation that I don't have enough salt to take with their advice.
I blame the Republican Administration for the botched response.
While it is fashionable to bring issues down to politics, I still believe decay of professional skills is a much bigger problem US faces - and this is a much longer term issue,  independent of POTUS' tie color.
When leading research hospital (in a deep blue state, if that matters) cannot perform ab initio sequencing of patient's virus sample, one only has to wonder if it is Trump's or Putin's fault.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 19, 2020, 05:35:35 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:42:12 PMAll I'm getting out of this thread is that armchair analysis by non-experts will be our doom.

All of this craic is occurring on the off-topic board of a roads forum, which serves a niche interest.  I tend to worry more about the Medium.com pieces that go viral, often reflecting garbled understandings of the established science, let alone the research currently being done.

Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 03:53:45 PMMaybe someone who lived through 1918 Spanish flu could help coordinating things - but those are not in their best shape by now...

Put it this way:  the social media platform of choice for those coordinating the response back in 1918--as opposed to experiencing the crisis as very young children and offering words of reassurance now while aged over 100--is Find A Grave, not Facebook.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Alps on April 19, 2020, 08:14:26 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 04:39:24 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 04:12:43 PM


Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 04:00:03 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.
CDC failed so miserably in the beginning of the situation that I don't have enough salt to take with their advice.
I blame the Republican Administration for the botched response.
Let's stray away from politics...
Agreed. Please do not discuss politics in this thread except in an absolute sense of who has or has not done what. One sentence like the above is NOT helpful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 19, 2020, 08:53:48 PM
Quote from: Alps on April 19, 2020, 08:14:26 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 04:39:24 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 04:12:43 PM


Quote from: kalvado on April 19, 2020, 04:00:03 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.
CDC failed so miserably in the beginning of the situation that I don't have enough salt to take with their advice.
I blame the Republican Administration for the botched response.
Let's stray away from politics...
Agreed. Please do not discuss politics in this thread except in an absolute sense of who has or has not done what. One sentence like the above is NOT helpful.

Put differently, the forum rules trump users' personal desire to put in their two pence on political issues.

:bigass:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 19, 2020, 09:49:18 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
Depends on what you're doing.  The world doesn't really go "on pause".  Students who are missing their senior year will not get it back, for example.

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:56:29 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:48:38 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 19, 2020, 10:44:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.
January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

I don't see a way of safely having students together in a classroom, or more importantly, living in dorms, until we have a vaccine or a treatment.

I think we are going to get an "interim lockdown" of sorts, with relaxing of the state we're in now but still many restrictions until we get a vaccine or treatment.

1) No crowds at concerts, sporting events, etc.
2) Stores and museums can be open but must limit the number of patrons in the building and have paths/lines marked out on the floor to help shoppers keep their distance from each other
3) Workplaces can reopen with increased telework and reconfiguration of office space to keep workers 6 feet apart from each other

Residential buildings for students are almost certainly going to need to remain closed.  Classes are going to need to be online unless you can manage spacing students all 6 feet from each other in classrooms.

Casinos are going to be especially problematic.  Hard to open casinos and keep people 6 feet from each other.
Dorms I could see, but at reduced capacity.  All single rooms, only every other sink available in the bathroom, etc.  Perhaps on-campus space could be given out by lottery, with priority to those who are in classes that need some things to be done in person, like Chemistry.  In any case, if online classes go too long, it's going to be a disservice to the students.  I've found that the real value of college doesn't have anything to do with what you learn in class - it's about networking as well as building experience though extracurriculars, internships, and co-ops.  Students are not getting that with online classes, so their career prospects will be hurt.

If this went on too long, I wonder what reduced capacity colleges would look like.  Perhaps people would be getting letters like this (https://www.parahumans.net/2017/10/31/glow-worm-0-5/).

Quote from: tradephoric on April 19, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
#2.  Even if the economy reopens, people will continue to wear masks and socially distance lowering the contagion rate (something that wasn't happening before the first wave).
Around here, people seem to be taking the mask mandate to mean that they don't need to keep 6' apart anymore, even though Cuomo specifically said that is not the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 11:40:53 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 19, 2020, 09:49:18 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.
Depends on what you're doing.  The world doesn't really go "on pause".  Students who are missing their senior year will not get it back, for example.

Actually, I have a family member in that situation. She's quite fortunate in this regard for reasons I won't get into in too much detail. But basically they're still able to have online classes and see everyone every day, and not really miss a beat as far as the day-to-day stuff. It's just the unknowns regarding the next few months and the physical graduation that's been the hardest part to deal with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 20, 2020, 12:53:18 AM
The dead don't contribute to GDP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 12:59:32 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 20, 2020, 12:53:18 AM
The dead don't contribute to GDP.
Wouldn't the GDP drop if people die?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on April 20, 2020, 01:10:52 AM
IIRC, wasn't the Spanish Flu of 1918 deadliest to the most healthy who were in their late teens through their 20s? 

This one appears to me to be generally deadliest to those who have other serious underlying health issues, especially those that relate to advanced age, with the virus being the 'feather' that ultimately pushes them over the edge.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 20, 2020, 01:10:52 AM
IIRC, wasn't the Spanish Flu of 1918 deadliest to the most healthy who were in their late teens through their 20s? 

This one appears to me to be generally deadliest to those who have other serious underlying health issues, especially those that relate to advanced age, with the virus being the 'feather' that ultimately pushes them over the edge.

Mike

Yes, but why are we so eager to write those people off as necessary/acceptable casualties?

Also, more people than we realize are high risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 01:44:33 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 20, 2020, 01:10:52 AM
IIRC, wasn't the Spanish Flu of 1918 deadliest to the most healthy who were in their late teens through their 20s? 

This one appears to me to be generally deadliest to those who have other serious underlying health issues, especially those that relate to advanced age, with the virus being the 'feather' that ultimately pushes them over the edge.

Mike

Yes, but why are we so eager to write those people off as necessary/acceptable casualties?

Also, more people than we realize are high risk.
Yeah, tons of obese Americans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 20, 2020, 02:00:34 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 20, 2020, 01:10:52 AM
IIRC, wasn't the Spanish Flu of 1918 deadliest to the most healthy who were in their late teens through their 20s? 

This one appears to me to be generally deadliest to those who have other serious underlying health issues, especially those that relate to advanced age, with the virus being the 'feather' that ultimately pushes them over the edge.

Mike

Yes, but why are we so eager to write those people off as necessary/acceptable casualties?

Because people are going stir-crazy and just want to return to living their lives as if nothing out of the ordinary is going on. And wherever there is a strong desire for something, there are psychological defense mechanisms to enable it.
"It won't affect me" - that one's called denial
"Some old people may die but so what, they didn't have long to live anyway" - rationalization
"I have rights dagnabbit, you have no authority to make me stay home!" - deflection
And so forth.

The middle one is particularly interesting since we do have longstanding norms regarding at what age we consider it socially acceptable for someone to die. The death of someone in their 20s is shocking and horrifying no matter what the cause, while the death of someone in their 80s is sad but normal. Indeed, if covid weren't so heavily discriminatory in what ages it kills at, you can bet a lot of people would be reacting very differently to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 20, 2020, 04:39:58 AM
Those who are old or have other underlying physical conditions will be the most likely to die.  Therefore, we shouldn't care about them because they're leeches on society.  Those who have underlying psychological conditions are most likely to be most severely affected by the effort to save lives.  Therefore, we shouldn't care about them because they're leeches on society.  It's almost like all of those people don't matter if saving them costs me something, as if nothing matters other than how things affect me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 07:48:40 AM
Quote from: vdeane on April 19, 2020, 09:49:18 PM


Quote from: tradephoric on April 19, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
#2.  Even if the economy reopens, people will continue to wear masks and socially distance lowering the contagion rate (something that wasn't happening before the first wave).
Around here, people seem to be taking the mask mandate to mean that they don't need to keep 6' apart anymore, even though Cuomo specifically said that is not the case.
Honestly speaking, reasonable masks should be more effective than 6' for large particulates. Six feet was a povety driven approach to begin with, with no factory masks and sheer panic in government.
If masks are not effective and aerosols are actually spreading virus, world is SOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 01:44:33 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 20, 2020, 01:10:52 AM
IIRC, wasn't the Spanish Flu of 1918 deadliest to the most healthy who were in their late teens through their 20s? 

This one appears to me to be generally deadliest to those who have other serious underlying health issues, especially those that relate to advanced age, with the virus being the 'feather' that ultimately pushes them over the edge.

Mike

Yes, but why are we so eager to write those people off as necessary/acceptable casualties?

Also, more people than we realize are high risk.
Yeah, tons of obese Americans.

Yes, the irony is that we are teaching people to sit watching TV at home all day and have high calorie fast food delivered via app.  Hence why I said upthread that there should be some public message to at least try to convince people to somehow stay active too.  Even something about learning to cook at home would be nice.  There are plenty of ads still on about eating from restaurants and how they have been "there for you"  and you need to be "there for them."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 08:32:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 01:44:33 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on April 20, 2020, 01:10:52 AM
IIRC, wasn't the Spanish Flu of 1918 deadliest to the most healthy who were in their late teens through their 20s? 

This one appears to me to be generally deadliest to those who have other serious underlying health issues, especially those that relate to advanced age, with the virus being the 'feather' that ultimately pushes them over the edge.

Mike

Yes, but why are we so eager to write those people off as necessary/acceptable casualties?

Also, more people than we realize are high risk.
Yeah, tons of obese Americans.

Yes, the irony is that we are teaching people to sit watching TV at home all day and have high calorie fast food delivered via app.  Hence why I said upthread that there should be some public message to at least try to convince people to somehow stay active too.  Even something about learning to cook at home would be nice.  There are plenty of ads still on about eating from restaurants and how they have been "there for you"  and you need to be "there for them."
Restaurants have their own business to save.
And I really wonder how Coursera and edX are doing. I, for one, listened through one course...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 20, 2020, 08:54:40 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 19, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
The USNS comfort and the Javits Center largely remain empty of COVID-19 patients even as NYC is coming down from the apex.  Waiting to open up the economy at this point is just delaying the second wave of infections from starting.  Sure, we can all shelter in place until they come up with a vaccine in a year but that's just not practical.  The whole point of flattening the curve was to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun and that has been accomplished in the first wave.  Here are 3 reasons why the NYC health care system won't be overrun if the economy reopens:

#1.  Herd immunity gained from the the first wave will reduce the infection rate of the second wave (widespread anti-body tests will give us a better idea to the percentage of herd immunity present... the governor will wait for the anti-body tests before making a decision to start opening the economy which is reasonable).

#2.  Even if the economy reopens, people will continue to wear masks and socially distance lowering the contagion rate (something that wasn't happening before the first wave).

#3.  A percentage of the population will continue to shelter in place even after the executive orders are lifted.  Less people out and about compared to the first wave of infections will lower the contagion rate.


I doubt we are even close to a herd immunity situation.  But you are right, antibody tests will tell the tale.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 08:57:54 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 20, 2020, 08:54:40 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 19, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
The USNS comfort and the Javits Center largely remain empty of COVID-19 patients even as NYC is coming down from the apex.  Waiting to open up the economy at this point is just delaying the second wave of infections from starting.  Sure, we can all shelter in place until they come up with a vaccine in a year but that's just not practical.  The whole point of flattening the curve was to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun and that has been accomplished in the first wave.  Here are 3 reasons why the NYC health care system won't be overrun if the economy reopens:

#1.  Herd immunity gained from the the first wave will reduce the infection rate of the second wave (widespread anti-body tests will give us a better idea to the percentage of herd immunity present... the governor will wait for the anti-body tests before making a decision to start opening the economy which is reasonable).

#2.  Even if the economy reopens, people will continue to wear masks and socially distance lowering the contagion rate (something that wasn't happening before the first wave).

#3.  A percentage of the population will continue to shelter in place even after the executive orders are lifted.  Less people out and about compared to the first wave of infections will lower the contagion rate.


I doubt we are even close to a herd immunity situation.  But you are right, antibody tests will tell the tale.
The WHO recently issued a warning about antibody tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 09:07:05 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 08:57:54 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 20, 2020, 08:54:40 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 19, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
The USNS comfort and the Javits Center largely remain empty of COVID-19 patients even as NYC is coming down from the apex.  Waiting to open up the economy at this point is just delaying the second wave of infections from starting.  Sure, we can all shelter in place until they come up with a vaccine in a year but that's just not practical.  The whole point of flattening the curve was to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun and that has been accomplished in the first wave.  Here are 3 reasons why the NYC health care system won't be overrun if the economy reopens:

#1.  Herd immunity gained from the the first wave will reduce the infection rate of the second wave (widespread anti-body tests will give us a better idea to the percentage of herd immunity present... the governor will wait for the anti-body tests before making a decision to start opening the economy which is reasonable).

#2.  Even if the economy reopens, people will continue to wear masks and socially distance lowering the contagion rate (something that wasn't happening before the first wave).

#3.  A percentage of the population will continue to shelter in place even after the executive orders are lifted.  Less people out and about compared to the first wave of infections will lower the contagion rate.


I doubt we are even close to a herd immunity situation.  But you are right, antibody tests will tell the tale.
The WHO recently issued a warning about antibody tests.
Everything is currently work in progress, very little certainty on the scientific level - but some decisions need to be taken here and now.
If you think about it, it is just about 100 days that the virus is subject to close study.

ANd if there is no reasonable immunity after recovery - maybe not very long term, but at least some - then the world is SOL. But given that recovered patient's plasma is successfully used for treatment - there should be immune system response. Maybe not perfect - viruses are known to linger around the body for a long time (herpes on lips as a most annoying example), but still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 20, 2020, 09:52:36 AM
Lets add some numbers to the conversation:

Current case count:  roughly 750,000 identified cases, roughly 40,000 deaths so far, in about 3 months.

There is a finding in Santa Clara County that did antibody testing that seems to think the asymptomatic (and therefore untested) cases represent 50x-85x the total number of tested, and that the county had about 15% infected.  There is a finding in a Boston homeless shelter that puts the percent infected in that shelter at 35%.  If I assume that both findings are valid, and I assume that the Boston one is higher because of it's density, but if that the Santa Clara County number is reasonable, then 15% of 320,000,000 Americans, or 48,000,000, have been infected.  With 40,000 deaths, that is a 0.08% death rate (not 1%).

Flu stats:  over a 6-8 month flu season, CDC reports a range of 9,000,000-45,000,000 infection count and 12,000-61,000 deaths over the past ten years, or a 0.13% death rate (not 1%).

So...all things being equal...COVID-19 is slightly better than the flu in terms of the number of deaths, SO FAR, BUT in a much shorter timeframe.  AND...we have no way of slowing it down right now beyond physical distancing, cleaning, and mask wearing.  The flu has a tested vaccine and tested treatments, and COVID-19 does NOT.  And...we're still learning about this virus...so some of these projections and assumptions haven't been truly tested.

About herd immunity:  herd immunity for most prior diseases hasn't occur until we get at least 80% infection rate, and some not until 95%.

So...we would need 256,000,000 Americans infected in total (5x more than the current total) to start to see herd immunity without a vaccine, which would lead to 213,000 deaths.  And that's excluding those who will retain new chronic conditions after.  The opinion question is...is that number acceptable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
213,000 deaths acceptable, even if this armchair analysis holds up?  That's not even a question.  Of course it isn't acceptable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
213,000 deaths acceptable, even if this armchair analysis holds up?  That's not even a question.  Of course it isn't acceptable.
and what is acceptable?

38,000 (road deaths)?
40,000 (firarms)?
55,000 (Flu and pneumonia)?

So far, nobody proven we can live forever - in fact, nobody passed 150 year mark since bible times. I believe 140 is pretty much the absolute maximum as lungs service life is limited.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 20, 2020, 10:12:33 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 08:57:54 AMThe WHO recently issued a warning about antibody tests.

The same organization that has parroted the ChiCom line? I trust nothing they say.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
Yes, the irony is that we are teaching people to sit watching TV at home all day and have high calorie fast food delivered via app.  Hence why I said upthread that there should be some public message to at least try to convince people to somehow stay active too.  Even something about learning to cook at home would be nice.  There are plenty of ads still on about eating from restaurants and how they have been "there for you"  and you need to be "there for them."

I keep seeing ads for delivery, and for online order/curbside pickup for groceries, and none of them are relevant to where I live. I'm an hour from the nearest Walmart Supercenter or Kroger that offers the click-list service. I'm a half-hour from the nearest McDonald's or Wendy's or Hardee's, and even those towns don't have GrubHub or DoorDash or any of those services. I'm sure those delivery services work great in places like Lexington, or possibly even Richmond, but not in my rural county of 7,000 with a county seat with a population of 1,000, whose only fast food places are a Dairy Queen, and a Subway in a convenience store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 20, 2020, 10:20:08 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 20, 2020, 09:52:36 AM
Lets add some numbers to the conversation:

Current case count:  roughly 750,000 identified cases, roughly 40,000 deaths so far, in about 3 months.

There is a finding in Santa Clara County that did antibody testing that seems to think the asymptomatic (and therefore untested) cases represent 50x-85x the total number of tested, and that the county had about 15% infected.  There is a finding in a Boston homeless shelter that puts the percent infected in that shelter at 35%.  If I assume that both findings are valid, and I assume that the Boston one is higher because of it's density, but if that the Santa Clara County number is reasonable, then 15% of 320,000,000 Americans, or 48,000,000, have been infected.  With 40,000 deaths, that is a 0.08% death rate (not 1%).

Flu stats:  over a 6-8 month flu season, CDC reports an average 9,000,000-45,000,000 infection count and 12,000-61,000 deaths, or a 0.13% death rate (not 1%).

So...all things being equal...COVID-19 is slightly better than the flu in terms of the number of deaths, SO FAR, BUT in a much shorter timeframe.  AND...we have no way of slowing it down right now beyond physical distancing, cleaning, and mask wearing.  The flu has a tested vaccine and tested treatments, and COVID-19 does NOT.  And...we're still learning about this virus...so some of these projections and assumptions haven't been truly tested.

About herd immunity:  herd immunity for most prior diseases hasn't occur until we get at least 80% infection rate, and some not until 95%.

So...we would need 256,000,000 Americans infected in total (5x more than the current total) to start to see herd immunity without a vaccine, which would lead to 213,000 deaths.  And that's excluding those who will retain new chronic conditions after.  The opinion question is...is that number acceptable?

If that antibody study is valid, and as much as I like to think it is, my guess is that it isn't quite THAT rosy, it is wonderful news.  That and even a partially effective vaccine pretty much gets things back to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 20, 2020, 10:21:44 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 20, 2020, 10:12:33 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 08:57:54 AMThe WHO recently issued a warning about antibody tests.

The same organization that has parroted the ChiCom line? I trust nothing they say.


Their infamous statement was in mid-January, when we had very little information. It turned out to be wrong, but that's because of new information, not because they were lying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 20, 2020, 10:36:10 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 20, 2020, 09:52:36 AM
So...we would need 256,000,000 Americans infected in total (5x more than the current total) to start to see herd immunity without a vaccine, which would lead to 213,000 deaths.  And that's excluding those who will retain new chronic conditions after.  The opinion question is...is that number acceptable?

1% natural population turnover is about 3 million. So in that sense, 213,000 is but a small fraction of the deaths that would have occurred anyways. And then how do we go about estimating how many of the 213,000 would have been included in the 3 million if COVID-19 didn't exist? Probably quite a few, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

This is really all about preventing the health care system from being overwhelmed, because of how violently this virus hits the elderly and otherwise susceptible people. So personally, I don't really think "Is XXX amount of deaths acceptable?" is the right question to be asking, at least not until we have a lot more hard facts than we do now. Obviously, any death of a person that was unlikely to die in the immediate future is unacceptable, so we need to focus on reducing those, and right now social distancing and locking down (to various extents) are the only proven tools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 10:38:18 AM


Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
213,000 deaths acceptable, even if this armchair analysis holds up?  That's not even a question.  Of course it isn't acceptable.
and what is acceptable?

38,000 (road deaths)?
40,000 (firarms)?
55,000 (Flu and pneumonia)?

So far, nobody proven we can live forever - in fact, nobody passed 150 year mark since bible times. I believe 140 is pretty much the absolute maximum as lungs service life is limited.

Nah, those aren't acceptable, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 20, 2020, 10:47:58 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 20, 2020, 10:21:44 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 20, 2020, 10:12:33 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 08:57:54 AMThe WHO recently issued a warning about antibody tests.
The same organization that has parroted the ChiCom line? I trust nothing they say.
Their infamous statement was in mid-January, when we had very little information. It turned out to be wrong, but that's because of new information, not because they were lying.

The information was new to us, but not to China. It was information they had all along, potentially even well before mid-January.
As far as the WHO, data from China is all they had to work with early on, so they ended up tremendously misinformed, just like everyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:49:39 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 10:38:18 AM


Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
213,000 deaths acceptable, even if this armchair analysis holds up?  That's not even a question.  Of course it isn't acceptable.
and what is acceptable?

38,000 (road deaths)?
40,000 (firarms)?
55,000 (Flu and pneumonia)?

So far, nobody proven we can live forever - in fact, nobody passed 150 year mark since bible times. I believe 140 is pretty much the absolute maximum as lungs service life is limited.

Nah, those aren't acceptable, either.

Thing is, we do accept those numbers - with some protest, of course.
Overall things boil down to pretty cynical cost-benefit analysis. And in that analysis, less than a million of deaths is a big factor - but not an overwhelming factor.
I suspect, current quarantine regine is established under the assumption of few millions, if not few tens millions, of deaths. It may not be warranted for a few tens thousands deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 20, 2020, 10:52:41 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:49:39 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 10:38:18 AM


Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
213,000 deaths acceptable, even if this armchair analysis holds up?  That's not even a question.  Of course it isn't acceptable.
and what is acceptable?

38,000 (road deaths)?
40,000 (firarms)?
55,000 (Flu and pneumonia)?

So far, nobody proven we can live forever - in fact, nobody passed 150 year mark since bible times. I believe 140 is pretty much the absolute maximum as lungs service life is limited.

Nah, those aren't acceptable, either.

Thing is, we do accept those numbers - with some protest, of course.
Overall things boil down to pretty cynical cost-benefit analysis. And in that analysis, less than a million of deaths is a big factor - but not an overwhelming factor.
I suspect, current quarantine regine is established under the assumption of few millions, if not few tens millions, of deaths. It may not be warranted for a few tens thousands deaths.

The "few tens thousands" is the number of deaths projected. The number you should be looking at is the difference between the current situation and the alternative of doing nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 11:16:42 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 20, 2020, 10:52:41 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:49:39 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 10:38:18 AM


Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
213,000 deaths acceptable, even if this armchair analysis holds up?  That's not even a question.  Of course it isn't acceptable.
and what is acceptable?

38,000 (road deaths)?
40,000 (firarms)?
55,000 (Flu and pneumonia)?

So far, nobody proven we can live forever - in fact, nobody passed 150 year mark since bible times. I believe 140 is pretty much the absolute maximum as lungs service life is limited.

Nah, those aren't acceptable, either.

Thing is, we do accept those numbers - with some protest, of course.
Overall things boil down to pretty cynical cost-benefit analysis. And in that analysis, less than a million of deaths is a big factor - but not an overwhelming factor.
I suspect, current quarantine regine is established under the assumption of few millions, if not few tens millions, of deaths. It may not be warranted for a few tens thousands deaths.

The "few tens thousands" is the number of deaths projected. The number you should be looking at is the difference between the current situation and the alternative of doing nothing.
There are lots of ways to spin the data. There are also a few options between the current lockdown and "do nothing". Question is, of course, if there are some ways to minimize some parameter - which is a combination of direct deaths and some sum of social and economic consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 11:37:22 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 20, 2020, 10:12:33 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 08:57:54 AMThe WHO recently issued a warning about antibody tests.

The same organization that has parroted the ChiCom line? I trust nothing they say.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
Yes, the irony is that we are teaching people to sit watching TV at home all day and have high calorie fast food delivered via app.  Hence why I said upthread that there should be some public message to at least try to convince people to somehow stay active too.  Even something about learning to cook at home would be nice.  There are plenty of ads still on about eating from restaurants and how they have been "there for you"  and you need to be "there for them."

I keep seeing ads for delivery, and for online order/curbside pickup for groceries, and none of them are relevant to where I live. I'm an hour from the nearest Walmart Supercenter or Kroger that offers the click-list service. I'm a half-hour from the nearest McDonald's or Wendy's or Hardee's, and even those towns don't have GrubHub or DoorDash or any of those services. I'm sure those delivery services work great in places like Lexington, or possibly even Richmond, but not in my rural county of 7,000 with a county seat with a population of 1,000, whose only fast food places are a Dairy Queen, and a Subway in a convenience store.

We've given a couple a try but most won't come out to us given we are in the corner of the Fresno City limit.  I think Wendy's has been the only major chain that has ever been willing to send someone to our house. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 11:46:56 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:49:39 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 10:38:18 AM


Quote from: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 09:54:27 AM
213,000 deaths acceptable, even if this armchair analysis holds up?  That's not even a question.  Of course it isn't acceptable.
and what is acceptable?

38,000 (road deaths)?
40,000 (firarms)?
55,000 (Flu and pneumonia)?

So far, nobody proven we can live forever - in fact, nobody passed 150 year mark since bible times. I believe 140 is pretty much the absolute maximum as lungs service life is limited.

Nah, those aren't acceptable, either.

Thing is, we do accept those numbers - with some protest, of course.
Overall things boil down to pretty cynical cost-benefit analysis. And in that analysis, less than a million of deaths is a big factor - but not an overwhelming factor.
I suspect, current quarantine regine is established under the assumption of few millions, if not few tens millions, of deaths. It may not be warranted for a few tens thousands deaths.
But then you get into a chicken-and-the-egg discussion that deaths are only low because of the measures taken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 20, 2020, 11:47:07 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 20, 2020, 09:52:36 AM
There is a finding in Santa Clara County that did antibody testing that seems to think the asymptomatic (and therefore untested) cases represent 50x-85x the total number of tested, and that the county had about 15% infected.  There is a finding in a Boston homeless shelter that puts the percent infected in that shelter at 35%.  If I assume that both findings are valid, and I assume that the Boston one is higher because of it's density, but if that the Santa Clara County number is reasonable, then 15% of 320,000,000 Americans, or 48,000,000, have been infected.  With 40,000 deaths, that is a 0.08% death rate (not 1%).

Flu stats:  over a 6-8 month flu season, CDC reports a range of 9,000,000-45,000,000 infection count and 12,000-61,000 deaths over the past ten years, or a 0.13% death rate (not 1%).


The mortality rate of COVID-19 is almost certainly greater than that of the flu.  In NYC (pop. 8.4 million) there have been 13,240 suspected COVID-19 deaths (8811 confirmed and 4429 probable).  Assuming every person in NYC has been infected with the virus, that would equate to a mortality rate of 0.15% (higher than the flu).  If we assume 50% of NYC residents have been infected, the fatality rate would jump to 0.31%.  With 25% of NYC residents infected, the mortality rate would be 0.63%.

As of April 19, 2020, NYC has performed 236,474 tests with 129,788 tests coming back positive (over 50% positive rate).  But for every person with severe symptoms getting tested there are probably 10 people with mild symptoms that aren't being tested.  Then there are those people that are asymptomatic... the Columbia University Medical Center in NYC mandated COVID-19 screenings for all pregnant women who came in to give birth.  Of the 215 women, 29 of them tested positive for COVID-19 (or 13.7%) even though none were exhibiting symptoms.  My guess is a few million people in NYC have been infected by COVID-19 which would mean the virus has a mortality rate of roughly 0.6% in NYC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 20, 2020, 12:10:35 PM
I think the idea that a substantial fraction of the US population has been silently infected with COVID-19 is going to turn out to be wishful thinking.  The conversation among experts has shifted toward the use of the percentage that test negative as a measure of how thoroughly the testing regime samples the infected population, with some describing 90% negative tests as a minimum to implement some form of a containment strategy.  Here in Kansas, we have so few tests that we rank somewhere around 50th and are essentially testing only symptomatic cases, but even so we are turning up 90% negative.

And with New York City having had to dig a mass grave for COVID-19 victims, there is no way we are going to conclude that COVID-19 (however large the population of asymptomatic infected turns out to be) is as benign as the seasonal flu.  I actually suspect it has inherent lethality similar to the 1918 flu but chalks up a smaller case fatality rate simply because antibiotics (developed in the 1940's) and mechanical ventilation (developed in its modern form in the 1950's) are now available to treat severe cases.  (The 1918 flu killed either by causing cytokine storms leading to organ failure, or by weakening the patient to the point bacterial pneumonia could take hold.)

The UK did consider achieving herd immunity by allowing COVID-19 to run wild while sheltering the most vulnerable populations, such as the elderly in care homes and people with serious comorbidities.  The backlash was immense.  At the time I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation that took into account the country's age structure and realized that even if the over-65s were sheltered in a totally airtight manner, the excess deaths would be around 88,000 out of a population of about 65 million.  And even though they did lock down, the virus has still made it into a share of care homes.

If you are looking to save money and preserve economic activity when confronted with a new and aggressive virus like the one that causes COVID-19, the one option that always wins is to act early.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 12:19:38 PM
Quote from: Rothman on April 20, 2020, 11:46:56 AM
But then you get into a chicken-and-the-egg discussion that deaths are only low because of the measures taken.
well, there is actually a need to balance the measures to risks.
IF (and that is a big if) symptoms show up in a few %% of those infected - life is good, it is just a bad flu, or at least we may pretend so.
IF (and that is an equally big if) symptoms show up in the majority of those infected as initial data indicated - then we may start getting used to living at home - and dealing with consequences, such as famine next winter as harvest will be significantly affected.

Truth is somewhere between those extremes, I assume, and the task our leaders are facing is to find some compromise based on incomplete information at hand. That's why immunological tests are pushed - there is a desperate and immediate need for more data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 12:34:50 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 20, 2020, 12:10:35 PM

If you are looking to save money and preserve economic activity when confronted with a new and aggressive virus like the one that causes COVID-19, the one option that always wins is to act early.
But now the question is - whats next? First wave of virus is arrested, somewhere around 1% of population got sick according to official data - maybe 5% including symptomless and sick-at-home.
Nowhere close to herd immunity, so once restrictions are lifted - the second wave may come? Or not? That is a trillion-dollar question..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 20, 2020, 06:46:28 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 20, 2020, 09:52:36 AM
There is a finding in Santa Clara County that did antibody testing that seems to think the asymptomatic (and therefore untested) cases represent 50x-85x the total number of tested, and that the county had about 15% infected.  There is a finding in a Boston homeless shelter that puts the percent infected in that shelter at 35%.

I'm certainly curious to see the results of more serology studies, though it's very important to keep in mind here that it matters a lot what the threshold is.

If someone has antibodies against covid, this confirms they were at some point exposed to it, but it does not necessarily confirm they were infected with it per se. After all, if a person is exposed to a relatively small viral load, their immune system has a very good chance of eliminating the virus before any infection of it really has much chance to take root, but this would still be sufficient to trigger the creation of some level of antibodies which might be enough to show up in a serology test - and which, to be fair, would confer the person some level of immunity against the virus above what someone with no antibodies has.

The problem is, though, that having immunity isn't a binary yes/no thing - one can have a small number of antibodies and what is in effect "partial immunity" - reduces your odds of getting sick and reduces the likely severity of the disease if you do, but doesn't mean you're invincible against it.

Still, this is one of those things where every little bit helps - anyone who is partially immune is at least at a lower risk, and if a large percentage of a population is partially immune this will at least slow transmission down a little. We need to know what these numbers are in order to have more informed policy, so it is good to see this being looked into. Nonetheless, temper your expectations and realize what we're after here - more informed policy, not a revelation that somehow we're saved. The latter is unlikely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 20, 2020, 06:55:02 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 20, 2020, 06:46:28 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 20, 2020, 09:52:36 AM
There is a finding in Santa Clara County that did antibody testing that seems to think the asymptomatic (and therefore untested) cases represent 50x-85x the total number of tested, and that the county had about 15% infected.  There is a finding in a Boston homeless shelter that puts the percent infected in that shelter at 35%.

I'm certainly curious to see the results of more serology studies, though it's very important to keep in mind here that it matters a lot what the threshold is.

If someone has antibodies against covid, this confirms they were at some point exposed to it, but it does not necessarily confirm they were infected with it per se. After all, if a person is exposed to a relatively small viral load, their immune system has a very good chance of eliminating the virus before any infection of it really has much chance to take root, but this would still be sufficient to trigger the creation of some level of antibodies which might be enough to show up in a serology test - and which, to be fair, would confer the person some level of immunity against the virus above what someone with no antibodies has.

The problem is, though, that having immunity isn't a binary yes/no thing - one can have a small number of antibodies and what is in effect "partial immunity" - reduces your odds of getting sick and reduces the likely severity of the disease if you do, but doesn't mean you're invincible against it.

Still, this is one of those things where every little bit helps - anyone who is partially immune is at least at a lower risk, and if a large percentage of a population is partially immune this will at least slow transmission down a little. We need to know what these numbers are in order to have more informed policy, so it is good to see this being looked into. Nonetheless, temper your expectations and realize what we're after here - more informed policy, not a revelation that somehow we're saved. The latter is unlikely.
And slow opening up with precautions can lead to just that- exposure to low viral loads...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 20, 2020, 07:51:37 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 01:44:33 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Also, more people than we realize are high risk.
Yeah, tons of obese Americans.

Yes, the irony is that we are teaching people to sit watching TV at home all day and have high calorie fast food delivered via app.  Hence why I said upthread that there should be some public message to at least try to convince people to somehow stay active too.

There's also a struggle against basic biological instinct here. When people are stressed out, what do they do? They eat more, and go for higher calorie foods given the choice.

This is a tendency which served humans well in prehistory, when stress often equaled food insecurity and so it was a survival skill to bulk up when you had the chance. Right now, though, that is not the primary threat we're facing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:19:48 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 20, 2020, 07:51:37 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 01:44:33 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Also, more people than we realize are high risk.
Yeah, tons of obese Americans.

Yes, the irony is that we are teaching people to sit watching TV at home all day and have high calorie fast food delivered via app.  Hence why I said upthread that there should be some public message to at least try to convince people to somehow stay active too.

There's also a struggle against basic biological instinct here. When people are stressed out, what do they do? They eat more, and go for higher calorie foods given the choice.

This is a tendency which served humans well in prehistory, when stress often equaled food insecurity and so it was a survival skill to bulk up when you had the chance. Right now, though, that is not the primary threat we're facing.

Yes, and those higher calorie foods in turn lack of activity tends compound stress.  Staying indoors all day also can lead to Vitamin D deficiency which often means more stress.  The higher calorie meals phenomenon is due to the instinctual driven need to consume high quantities of food for a potential famine.  The problem is that with heart disease being by far the number one cause of death is that things like staying active and watching what you consume shouldn't be ignored outright by health officials. 

To that end most stay at home orders at least have provisions that allow people to be outside for activities such as; walking, cycling, running, and even hiking.  You'd think that it would be critical to get the message out there on the importance of managing your body but that definitely hasn't been the case.  Given these "indefinite"  quarantine statuses that a lot of states are going with it really isn't so clear if people will be able to go back to normal short term...it's looking it will be on the longer side for most.  Kicking the can down on the road on nutrition and managing one's well being is just setting a lot of people up for longer term health issues.  Besides, it's pretty well established that even a little bit of exercise and physical activity can help relieve some stress...isn't anything better than nothing?

To that end, yeah it's discouraging seeing public PSAs pushing people to here in California to order out constantly.  Private eatery businesses are understandably trying to survive and they should be the ones pushing for advertising not public bodies.  I don't know if that's a local phenomenon I'm seeing here as some sort of outlier but I doubt that it is. 

Speaking of that has anyone altered their daily routing to adjust for potential increased sedentariness?   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 08:47:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:19:48 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 20, 2020, 07:51:37 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 20, 2020, 01:44:33 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 20, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Also, more people than we realize are high risk.
Yeah, tons of obese Americans.

Yes, the irony is that we are teaching people to sit watching TV at home all day and have high calorie fast food delivered via app.  Hence why I said upthread that there should be some public message to at least try to convince people to somehow stay active too.

There's also a struggle against basic biological instinct here. When people are stressed out, what do they do? They eat more, and go for higher calorie foods given the choice.

This is a tendency which served humans well in prehistory, when stress often equaled food insecurity and so it was a survival skill to bulk up when you had the chance. Right now, though, that is not the primary threat we're facing.

Yes, and those higher calorie foods in turn lack of activity tends compound stress.  Staying indoors all day also can lead to Vitamin D deficiency which often means more stress.  The higher calorie meals phenomenon is due to the instinctual driven need to consume high quantities of food for a potential famine.  The problem is that with heart disease being by far the number one cause of death is that things like staying active and watching what you consume shouldn't be ignored outright by health officials. 

To that end most stay at home orders at least have provisions that allow people to be outside for activities such as; walking, cycling, running, and even hiking.  You'd think that it would be critical to get the message out there on the importance of managing your body but that definitely hasn't been the case.  Given these "indefinite"  quarantine statuses that a lot of states are going with it really isn't so clear if people will be able to go back to normal short term...it's looking it will be on the longer side for most.  Kicking the can down on the road on nutrition and managing one's well being is just setting a lot of people up for longer term health issues.  Besides, it's pretty well established that even a little bit of exercise and physical activity can help relieve some stress...isn't anything better than nothing?

To that end, yeah it's discouraging seeing public PSAs pushing people to here in California to order out constantly.  Private eatery businesses are understandably trying to survive and they should be the ones pushing for advertising not public bodies.  I don't know if that's a local phenomenon I'm seeing here as some sort of outlier but I doubt that it is. 

Speaking of that has anyone altered their daily routing to adjust for potential increased sedentariness?
I still see people outside exercising. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
I have been horrified by this entire experience this past month. In mid-March, I was somewhat guarded but not terrified about the virus itself. But now I won't even go into a store (even the ones that are open). That's not to mention the horror of government abuse, which has been a concern all along.

The past month has been hands-down one of the worst of my life.

Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 20, 2020, 09:18:02 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

I think it depends on your individual health: those without lung issues, diabetes, heart conditions, or liver disease, as well as those who are not overweight nor immunocompromised, are at relatively low risk of catching COVID-19. Also not good for anyone over 65 or those who live in assisted care facilities. If those things don't apply to you, there's no reason to be terrified.

As someone who is near a healthy weight (for the first time in years), exercises daily, lacks any underlying conditions, and just had a successful(?) physical in mid-March, I'm not terrified at all. But I still take measures such as wearing a mask, keeping my distance, and using ample hand sanitizer. I also tend to walk in the street (against traffic) instead of on the sidewalk to further reduce my contact when I'm out packing on the miles. This is the best I can do, however, as I live in a very urban area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 20, 2020, 09:19:19 PM
^^^ @ RGT

That's good, I don't see the same people who used to run in the morning when I did but there is a larger amount of people out in the afternoon and evening doing activities.  I would imagine the people I saw in the morning I just getting out later.  My wife has even been taking the dogs out on more walks given she is home four out of five days a week now. 

Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
I have been horrified by this entire experience this past month. In mid-March, I was somewhat guarded but not terrified about the virus itself. But now I won't even go into a store (even the ones that are open). That's not to mention the horror of government abuse, which has been a concern all along.

The past month has been hands-down one of the worst of my life.

Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

Not even slightly.  I get more antsy having to wait in a capacity line to get in a store more than anything.  I've been going to gas stations much more frequently for small things since grocery stores and general stores have a bottleneck. 

Personally I gave up worry about disease a long time ago after almost being crippled in a car accident (I was on foot), taking care of two parents who had stage four cancer, and having two heart health scares myself.  The conclusion I came to was that life is worth is living to it's fullest.  I had a realization that no matter how hard I might try that I'll never fully be able to control when my time is up.

That isn't to say that I'm not "concerned"  about the current situation.  That also isn't to say that taking some measure of precautions isn't necessary too... I still run 35-50 miles a week after I was tested twice for irregular heartbeats (which turned out to be "nothing"  brought on by dehydration supposedly).  In the case of the virus stuff I do wear a mask when required and I pretty much was already a master of staying away from people aside from the gym.  I just can't bring myself to fear for my own personal safety given the totality of what I've seen occur so far...I'm certainly not afraid of the store.  I do worry more about some of my relatives who haven't been taking care of themselves and continue to do things that put them in situations that could have consequences. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 20, 2020, 10:22:29 PM
I, for one, am not terrified to go into the grocery store. I'm much more worried about compliance with all the policy changes and such that might catch me off guard than I am about actually catching the virus. However, I do feel for people that are high-risk. It's a really tough time to be over 65 or have an underlying condition.

It's got to be tens of pages ago now that I mentioned that sidewalks and trails have become the new roads - that's where all the traffic is! That seems to still be the case around here, especially on nice days like today. It has been refreshingly pleasant to see other people out getting exercise. Traffic on the roads has ticked back up, and seems to have settled into a new normal: congestion-free, but enough people out and about that there's still a (subdued) hum of economic activity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 20, 2020, 11:22:29 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 20, 2020, 10:22:29 PM
It's got to be tens of pages ago now that I mentioned that sidewalks and trails have become the new roads - that's where all the traffic is! That seems to still be the case around here, especially on nice days like today. It has been refreshingly pleasant to see other people out getting exercise. Traffic on the roads has ticked back up, and seems to have settled into a new normal: congestion-free, but enough people out and about that there's still a (subdued) hum of economic activity.

It's a very good point, this. I walk a lot because of where I live, and because I don't like looking for parking in the city. Needless to say, I'm very privy to where there are lots of pedestrians, versus where there aren't. I've seen a very sizeable increase in the amount of foot traffic, and in particular, the number of kids out riding bikes, drawing on sidewalks, or just enjoying the sun. The side streets are quieter than ever before, and the air seems cleaner. Things will change, of course, but if someone ever wondered what a typical neighborhood street might have looked like in the 20s or 30s, well...regards.

Three weeks ago, I would have predicted an uptick in local traffic, as people try everything to avoid contact with others, but that doesn't seem to have panned out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 20, 2020, 11:45:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 20, 2020, 10:22:29 PM
I, for one, am not terrified to go into the grocery store. I'm much more worried about compliance with all the policy changes and such that might catch me off guard than I am about actually catching the virus. However, I do feel for people that are high-risk. It's a really tough time to be over 65 or have an underlying condition.

It's got to be tens of pages ago now that I mentioned that sidewalks and trails have become the new roads - that's where all the traffic is! That seems to still be the case around here, especially on nice days like today. It has been refreshingly pleasant to see other people out getting exercise. Traffic on the roads has ticked back up, and seems to have settled into a new normal: congestion-free, but enough people out and about that there's still a (subdued) hum of economic activity.

I'm not too worried about myself (yet). I go to the store about every 10-14 days for supplies and stay home otherwise. Once or twice a week, I'll drive over to Braum's for a milkshake :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 21, 2020, 12:18:35 AM
Quote from: US71 on April 20, 2020, 11:45:34 PM
I'm not too worried about myself (yet). I go to the store about every 10-14 days for supplies and stay home otherwise. Once or twice a week, I'll drive over to Braum's for a milkshake :)

Same here, except my outings are more frequent, largely because I can't cook, and also my freezer doesn't hold more than a week's supply of frozen food to pop into the microwave. I stretch that out by getting breakfast at a drive-through most mornings, and also twice-weekly grocery trips. I also made a quick out-of-state (but still in the metro area) visit to my sister, to draw down her toilet paper stash, and swap some of my consumer-grade non-washable surgical masks for one of her handmade washable masks.

I'm still waiting to get back to road-tripping. But since I live in a regional pandemic hotspot, my state's stay-at-home order is unlikely to be lifted anytime soon (at least for northern Virginia). Also, all the surrounding states have their own travel restrictions. And the just-extended closure of the U.S./Canada border to tourist traffic further delays what had been my next planned road trip, to Toronto. So I just wait patiently for the situation to improve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SoCal Kid on April 21, 2020, 01:08:06 AM
Not seriously concerned about this whole pandemic, really just stay home, practice basic hygiene, and distance yourself if you have to go out. I have been mostly staying at home plus having online class. However, I do go outside a couple times a week. Recently traveled along a bit of the Angeles Crest Highway, was a rather fun experience. Kinda nice since now traffic is basically gone here in LA. It's actually rather relaxing to be quarantined like this, just have a break from normal life, which can be stressful at times. Of course, I do hope for things to resume to normal as soon as possible and I wish everyone a safe life during this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM
Quote from: oscar on April 21, 2020, 12:18:35 AM
Quote from: US71 on April 20, 2020, 11:45:34 PM
I'm not too worried about myself (yet). I go to the store about every 10-14 days for supplies and stay home otherwise. Once or twice a week, I'll drive over to Braum's for a milkshake :)

Same here, except my outings are more frequent, largely because I can't cook, and also my freezer doesn't hold more than a week's supply of frozen food to pop into the microwave. I stretch that out by getting breakfast at a drive-through most mornings, and also twice-weekly grocery trips. I also made a quick out-of-state (but still in the metro area) visit to my sister, to draw down her toilet paper stash, and swap some of my consumer-grade non-washable surgical masks for one of her handmade washable masks.

I'm still waiting to get back to road-tripping. But since I live in a regional pandemic hotspot, my state's stay-at-home order is unlikely to be lifted anytime soon (at least for northern Virginia). Also, all the surrounding states have their own travel restrictions. And the just-extended closure of the U.S./Canada border to tourist traffic further delays what had been my next planned road trip, to Toronto. So I just wait patiently for the situation to improve.
Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 07:54:52 AM
I hope I don't jinx myself by making this post, but I try to look at it from a practical standpoint. There are just under 2,000 confirmed cases here in Fairfax County, and the county's population is over 1.1 million. Of course there are bound to be unreported cases as well, but statistically, the odds of encountering one of those people is fairly low. That doesn't mean I don't take precautions like washing my hands, limiting where I go, and wearing a mask when I go to the grocery store or Home Depot, but I'm not one of these people who's terrified even to go outside at all. I haven't been wearing a mask when I go out for a walk in the afternoon after work because I make an effort to stay away from other people (except, of course, my wife, if she comes along with me), and I've been altering my usual walking route to find options where I'll encounter fewer people (e.g., I'm using a dirt trail through the woods more often provided the ground is dry).

But you can't put your whole life on hold, and I'm not really interested in trying grocery delivery. I prefer to pick out my own meat, fish, and produce, and there have been a lot of reports of two-week waits for grocery delivery in some cases.

The one thing that did really annoy me the last two times at the grocery store was that even though they have lines on the floor showing you where to stand to maintain the six feet from the person in front of you while waiting to check out, both of the past two times the guy behind me has been a "cart-puller" who seems determined to stand in front of his cart instead of behind it like everyone else, which immediately means he's too close to the person in front of him. I didn't say anything this past Saturday because the guy behind me was big and easily weighed 100 pounds more than I do.




Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM
Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.

Might depend on where you are and the type of restaurant. The Burger King drive-thru in our neighborhood had a very long line on Saturday. I suspect they may be open for drive-thru only, not carryout, because that way they don't have to deal with forcing people to leave after getting their food (no doubt with carryout somebody would "change his mind" and try to eat it at a table there).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 21, 2020, 08:11:05 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM


Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.

For the most part,  fast food restaurants are drive thru only. Some are open where people can enter for takeout orders, but that tends to be in the minority. Some may offer curbside pickup as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 21, 2020, 08:13:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM

Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.

What are you thinking of as "takeout"?  Maybe you mean "delivery", as common for pizza places, Chinese, Door Dash and other services, etc. - and now a whole lot more restaurants that didn't have delivery services before.

My definition of "takeout" is where you go to the place, pick up your order, and "take it out" with you.  Drive-thru is the epitome of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 08:37:19 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 21, 2020, 08:13:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM

Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.

What are you thinking of as "takeout"?  Maybe you mean "delivery", as common for pizza places, Chinese, Door Dash and other services, etc. - and now a whole lot more restaurants that didn't have delivery services before.

My definition of "takeout" is where you go to the place, pick up your order, and "take it out" with you.  Drive-thru is the epitome of that.

To me, "takeout" would mean you go inside the restaurant and order "to go," as opposed to "for here," the difference in normal times being that when you order "for here" they put your food on a tray that you then take to a table to eat your food, whereas when you order "to go" they put it in  a bag and you normally leave with it. I suppose "takeout" could also mean ordering from a walk-up window; the Popeye's that used to be at 11th & F in DC had one of those around the corner from the main entrance (they had no drive-thru). In my mind I distinguish the drive-thru from "takeout," although there probably isn't really any good reason for distinguishing between the two. I don't normally hear people using the term "takeout" except, perhaps, in reference to Chinese restaurants ("Chinese takeout").*

Prior to the current pandemic, I've sometimes gone inside to order "to go" at fast food places that have drive-thrus for two reasons–(1) usually a much shorter wait such that I can go inside, order, get my food, and leave in less time than it would take even to reach the point where you tell them your order at the drive-thru; (2) getting it "to go" lets me put the food in the trunk so the car's passenger section doesn't get any fast-food smell.

*Then, of course, there is this legendary place in Jacksonville: https://goo.gl/maps/HFgz7oNxHZphJt5z8
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 21, 2020, 08:51:34 AM
I'm not concerned about stores.  I go out every ten days or so.  Yesterday was the first in awhile so I enjoyed that.  A lot more people wearing masks (including myself) than the last time I was out.  People are being very respectful and keeping distance. 

I still get out of the house though.  Walk the day about a mile and a half at least once a day.  Usually get a good cardio workout in a few times a week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
I have been horrified by this entire experience this past month. In mid-March, I was somewhat guarded but not terrified about the virus itself. But now I won't even go into a store (even the ones that are open). That's not to mention the horror of government abuse, which has been a concern all along.

The past month has been hands-down one of the worst of my life.

Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

My wife is a respiratory therapist at a hospital, so she is coming in contact with positive patients every night she works.  Because this virus can take a week or more after infection to present symptoms, our family lives as though we are positive.  We aren't staying home because we're afraid of getting it, we're staying home because we're afraid of spreading it. 

This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.

Those "protests" need to just go away. Lockdowns will end, and must end, because society can't take it much longer. But the "protests" are bogging down the process.

The people behind these "protests" don't care about the lockdowns, or about the virus. They care only about exploiting the situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?

I may have had it in early March because there was one day when I was so tired I actually thought I was going to die. I suspect a family member had it just before then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 09:53:55 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove.
Many people probably have had it that will never know because they were asymptomatic. Several of my friends were out of school with a flu right before this happened, they could have had it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:56:22 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?

I may have had it in early March because there was one day when I was so tired I actually thought I was going to die. I suspect a family member had it just before then.

Around Christmas we had a family member from Los Angeles over who was very sick.  He mostly stayed in his room but was coughing a lot. 

I got suddenly sick myself on the 23rd.  I felt fine the majority of the day and even had a long run in the morning.  In the evening I ended up with a really bad fever coupled with chills that lasted for about 12 hours.  The fever lasted two more days but the extreme fatigue was around for about four days.  From about a day and half in I had a really persistent dry cough that lasted until about the 10th of January.  I eventually went to an urgent care because of linger stomach problems brought on when I was sick, I was told that I probably had a severe flu.  I ended up losing about fifteen pounds during the whole thing and didn't feel completely right until about the start of February.  I've never had symptoms identical to what I had during a cold or flu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 21, 2020, 10:06:14 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove. 

With my wife working at a hospital, I've been checking my temperature every day.  I'm usually a remarkably consistent 98.6 exactly.  There was a five day stretch a couple weeks back I was at 99.1 exactly.  Along with that I had a very mild, sporadic cough and a runny nose, and I was a bit achy.  I could have had a very mild case of COVID-19 or it could have just been any of a number of other things. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 21, 2020, 10:12:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove. 


Very highly doubtful.  There was a bad cold going around last fall that had many of the same symptoms, though nowhere near as severe.  A local doctor was on TV and addressed this a few weeks ago.

If it was Covid, you would have seen spikes everywhere because though people can be assymptomatic, not everyone is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 21, 2020, 10:26:50 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove. 

I was tested on March 27th after exhibiting symptoms for over a week (shortness of breath, fever, chills).  The test came back negative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 10:28:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.

Those "protests" need to just go away. Lockdowns will end, and must end, because society can't take it much longer. But the "protests" are bogging down the process.

The people behind these "protests" don't care about the lockdowns, or about the virus. They care only about exploiting the situation.

At least in NC the assholes are honest about the fact that the economy is more important than people's lives.

https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/ (https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/)

QuoteProtestors say they feel the economic toll of the stay-at-home order outweighs the public health benefits during the crisis.

Two girls I went to school with work at the hospital in Goldsboro, NC and right now, there's 575 cases in Wayne County, 458 of which is part of an outbreak at a prison there. From what I'm told, people are still going about like it's another day.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 21, 2020, 10:48:21 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove.
So far, mid-february is the earliest possible date to get infected in US. Late December infection is pretty much impossible outside of ill-fated Chinese province. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414295042965504?lang=en is a very good post from a very knowledgeable and reputable person. 
And yes, antibody test would likely tell the truth about your disease even now. And those become available and actually administered.

https://dailygazette.com/article/2020/04/20/antibody-testing-begins-officially-in-capital-region  - maybe there is something like that going on in your area?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 21, 2020, 10:12:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove. 


Very highly doubtful.  There was a bad cold going around last fall that had many of the same symptoms, though nowhere near as severe.  A local doctor was on TV and addressed this a few weeks ago.

If it was Covid, you would have seen spikes everywhere because though people can be assymptomatic, not everyone is.

In California?  It's not exactly something that has been outright dismissed that the virus was on the west coast earlier than suspected.  With all those flights coming in from China daily there is at least some plausibility to it.  The first known U.S. cases weren't far behind that time frame.  At minimum some researchers have suggested that the reason the case numbers on the West Coast might be so low is earlier exposure than is presently suspected.  I'm not saying that's the case, but doesn't seem to be something the mainstream research has totally dismissed regarding the west coast. 

Regarding antibody tests I'd be up for giving one a try if it was somehow possible for me to do.  So far I haven't seen anything that would suggest that locally it is possible.  But then again that still doesn't prove much, I could in theory have been exposed later and not had symptoms. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 10:59:05 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 10:28:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.


Those "protests" need to just go away. Lockdowns will end, and must end, because society can't take it much longer. But the "protests" are bogging down the process.

The people behind these "protests" don't care about the lockdowns, or about the virus. They care only about exploiting the situation.


At least in NC the assholes are honest about the fact that the economy is more important than people's lives.

https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/ (https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/)

QuoteProtestors say they feel the economic toll of the stay-at-home order outweighs the public health benefits during the crisis.


Two girls I went to school with work at the hospital in Goldsboro, NC and right now, there's 575 cases in Wayne County, 458 of which is part of an outbreak at a prison there. From what I'm told, people are still going about like it's another day.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/)


https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/04/small-protest-in-albany-demands-communist-cuomo-lift-stay-at-home-order-in-ny.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-washington/about-2500-protesters-converge-at-washington-state-capitol-against-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN22201H

https://fox40.com/news/local-news/crowd-gathers-at-capitol-to-protest-stay-at-home-order/

Apparently the protests against the "Mask Orders" and "Shelter in Place" orders is nationwide at a state capital though. Sacramento, Albany and Olympia had their protests at the same time for the same reasons though like in the one in North Carolina.



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 11:00:26 AM
Quote from: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 10:59:05 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 10:28:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.


Those "protests" need to just go away. Lockdowns will end, and must end, because society can't take it much longer. But the "protests" are bogging down the process.

The people behind these "protests" don't care about the lockdowns, or about the virus. They care only about exploiting the situation.


At least in NC the assholes are honest about the fact that the economy is more important than people's lives.

https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/ (https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/)

QuoteProtestors say they feel the economic toll of the stay-at-home order outweighs the public health benefits during the crisis.


Two girls I went to school with work at the hospital in Goldsboro, NC and right now, there's 575 cases in Wayne County, 458 of which is part of an outbreak at a prison there. From what I'm told, people are still going about like it's another day.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/)


https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/04/small-protest-in-albany-demands-communist-cuomo-lift-stay-at-home-order-in-ny.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-washington/about-2500-protesters-converge-at-washington-state-capitol-against-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN22201H

https://fox40.com/news/local-news/crowd-gathers-at-capitol-to-protest-stay-at-home-order/

Apparently the protests against the "Mask Orders" and "Shelter in Place" orders is nationwide at a state capital though. Sacramento, Albany and Olympia had their protests at the same time for the same reasons though like in the one in North Carolina.
Idiots. We will be locked up for longer if these assholes spread it  :banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 21, 2020, 11:19:17 AM
"Singapore was known as the gold standard when it came to a stay at home order, but then they just dropped the protections and went right back to life and now they have a second wave that is devastating.  That is what we need to avoid." - Gretchen Whitmer 4/20 press conference.

The governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer describing the spike in cases that is taking place in Singapore as a "second wave" is disingenuous.  Singapore was until recently doing a good job at containing the virus and at the beginning of April there was less than 1k confirmed cases in a country of 5.6 million people.  The reality is Singapore is undergoing their first wave of infections after losing their containment battle, which in no way reflects what is going on in Michigan which has already been ravaged by the virus with tens of thousands of people infected.  The comparison never should have been made, yet Gretchen uses these distortions to justify why the people of Michigan shouldn't be allowed to buy seed or travel between residences. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 21, 2020, 11:33:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 21, 2020, 10:12:49 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove. 


Very highly doubtful.  There was a bad cold going around last fall that had many of the same symptoms, though nowhere near as severe.  A local doctor was on TV and addressed this a few weeks ago.

If it was Covid, you would have seen spikes everywhere because though people can be assymptomatic, not everyone is.

In California?  It's not exactly something that has been outright dismissed that the virus was on the west coast earlier than suspected.  With all those flights coming in from China daily there is at least some plausibility to it.  The first known U.S. cases weren't far behind that time frame.  At minimum some researchers have suggested that the reason the case numbers on the West Coast might be so low is earlier exposure than is presently suspected.  I'm not saying that's the case, but doesn't seem to be something the mainstream research has totally dismissed regarding the west coast. 

Regarding antibody tests I'd be up for giving one a try if it was somehow possible for me to do.  So far I haven't seen anything that would suggest that locally it is possible.  But then again that still doesn't prove much, I could in theory have been exposed later and not had symptoms.

Again, read full chain of Bredford's posts above. THey outright dismiss any possibility of deceber infections, and Seattle (not CA, but definitely west coast) based testing showed 0 COVID among thousands samples prior to mid-February.

In another study, out of 3000 samples retroactively analyzed from January-February collections in Santa Clara county, first positive came from 2/21 collection
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764364

CA flare occured late February - early March. December is pretty much impossible.  Not absolutely physically impossible, but on par with winning jackpot - and doing so more than once.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 21, 2020, 12:01:20 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
In California?  It's not exactly something that has been outright dismissed that the virus was on the west coast earlier than suspected.  With all those flights coming in from China daily there is at least some plausibility to it.  The first known U.S. cases weren't far behind that time frame.  At minimum some researchers have suggested that the reason the case numbers on the West Coast might be so low is earlier exposure than is presently suspected.  I'm not saying that's the case, but doesn't seem to be something the mainstream research has totally dismissed regarding the west coast. 

I agree there is something strange going on.  California has a population 4X higher than Michigan yet have half the number of COVID-19 deaths.  But the theory that California experienced earlier exposure to COVID doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  If COVID was spreading along the west coast undetected in December/January then why wasn't California's health care system overrun at that time (especially considering nobody was socially distancing at that time)?  Where was the exponential rate of infections and hospitalizations?  Maybe it was just a less deadly strain coming from China which is why there weren't many deaths, but that doesn't make much sense either considering how deadly the strain was for Wuhan (and the theory is people from Wuhan were bringing the virus over to California). 

I just want to know why California hasn't seen nearly as many deaths as Michigan (even though their population is 4x higher).  Why can't a reporter ask that question in one of the pressers.  The fact is the west coast isn't getting hit as hard as other parts of the country.  Why? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 12:18:08 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 10:59:05 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 10:28:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.


Those "protests" need to just go away. Lockdowns will end, and must end, because society can't take it much longer. But the "protests" are bogging down the process.

The people behind these "protests" don't care about the lockdowns, or about the virus. They care only about exploiting the situation.


At least in NC the assholes are honest about the fact that the economy is more important than people's lives.

https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/ (https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/)

QuoteProtestors say they feel the economic toll of the stay-at-home order outweighs the public health benefits during the crisis.


Two girls I went to school with work at the hospital in Goldsboro, NC and right now, there's 575 cases in Wayne County, 458 of which is part of an outbreak at a prison there. From what I'm told, people are still going about like it's another day.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/)


https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/04/small-protest-in-albany-demands-communist-cuomo-lift-stay-at-home-order-in-ny.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-washington/about-2500-protesters-converge-at-washington-state-capitol-against-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN22201H

https://fox40.com/news/local-news/crowd-gathers-at-capitol-to-protest-stay-at-home-order/

Apparently the protests against the "Mask Orders" and "Shelter in Place" orders is nationwide at a state capital though. Sacramento, Albany and Olympia had their protests at the same time for the same reasons though like in the one in North Carolina.

We've got our fair share of idiots trying to "LIBERATE VIRGINIA!" as well. :banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SoCal Kid on April 21, 2020, 12:26:56 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 21, 2020, 12:01:20 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
In California?  It's not exactly something that has been outright dismissed that the virus was on the west coast earlier than suspected.  With all those flights coming in from China daily there is at least some plausibility to it.  The first known U.S. cases weren't far behind that time frame.  At minimum some researchers have suggested that the reason the case numbers on the West Coast might be so low is earlier exposure than is presently suspected.  I'm not saying that's the case, but doesn't seem to be something the mainstream research has totally dismissed regarding the west coast. 

I agree there is something strange going on.  California has a population 4X higher than Michigan yet have half the number of COVID-19 deaths.  But the theory that California experienced earlier exposure to COVID doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  If COVID was spreading along the west coast undetected in December/January then why wasn't California's health care system overrun at that time (especially considering nobody was socially distancing at that time)?  Where was the exponential rate of infections and hospitalizations?  Maybe it was just a less deadly strain coming from China which is why there weren't many deaths, but that doesn't make much sense either considering how deadly the strain was for Wuhan (and the theory is people from Wuhan were bringing the virus over to California). 

I just want to know why California hasn't seen nearly as many deaths as Michigan (even though their population is 4x higher).  Why can't a reporter ask that question in one of the pressers.  The fact is the west coast isn't getting hit as hard as other parts of the country.  Why?
I read an article that the Stanford University did a study and said that Californians likely were exposed earlier than the East Coast to COVID and gained a herd immunity to it. However, the claim did receive a lot of doubt from the media and most people. My question is though how an immunity could be developed so fast and also how despite having such high infectivity, people have an immunity to it. Here's an article summarizing it https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/california-coronavirus-herd-immunity-early-spread-stanford-expert-interview
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 21, 2020, 12:29:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 12:18:08 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 10:59:05 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 10:28:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.


Those "protests" need to just go away. Lockdowns will end, and must end, because society can't take it much longer. But the "protests" are bogging down the process.

The people behind these "protests" don't care about the lockdowns, or about the virus. They care only about exploiting the situation.


At least in NC the assholes are honest about the fact that the economy is more important than people's lives.

https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/ (https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/)

QuoteProtestors say they feel the economic toll of the stay-at-home order outweighs the public health benefits during the crisis.


Two girls I went to school with work at the hospital in Goldsboro, NC and right now, there's 575 cases in Wayne County, 458 of which is part of an outbreak at a prison there. From what I'm told, people are still going about like it's another day.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/)


https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/04/small-protest-in-albany-demands-communist-cuomo-lift-stay-at-home-order-in-ny.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-washington/about-2500-protesters-converge-at-washington-state-capitol-against-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN22201H

https://fox40.com/news/local-news/crowd-gathers-at-capitol-to-protest-stay-at-home-order/

Apparently the protests against the "Mask Orders" and "Shelter in Place" orders is nationwide at a state capital though. Sacramento, Albany and Olympia had their protests at the same time for the same reasons though like in the one in North Carolina.

We've got our fair share of idiots trying to "LIBERATE VIRGINIA!" as well. :banghead:
Virginia had it's own "liberation" problems before corona.. for a different reason.

SM-G965U

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 01:02:37 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on April 21, 2020, 12:29:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 12:18:08 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 10:59:05 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 21, 2020, 10:28:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:58:52 AM
This is what is so incredibly frustrating about these protestors who are demanding the reopening of businesses.  It's going to prolong our family's exposure to risk.


Those "protests" need to just go away. Lockdowns will end, and must end, because society can't take it much longer. But the "protests" are bogging down the process.

The people behind these "protests" don't care about the lockdowns, or about the virus. They care only about exploiting the situation.


At least in NC the assholes are honest about the fact that the economy is more important than people's lives.

https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/ (https://www.wral.com/hundreds-plan-to-meet-in-raleigh-for-another-reopen-nc-rally/19064821/)

QuoteProtestors say they feel the economic toll of the stay-at-home order outweighs the public health benefits during the crisis.


Two girls I went to school with work at the hospital in Goldsboro, NC and right now, there's 575 cases in Wayne County, 458 of which is part of an outbreak at a prison there. From what I'm told, people are still going about like it's another day.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/04/20/over-500-covid-19-cases-in-wayne-county-most-at-prison/)


https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/04/small-protest-in-albany-demands-communist-cuomo-lift-stay-at-home-order-in-ny.html (https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/04/small-protest-in-albany-demands-communist-cuomo-lift-stay-at-home-order-in-ny.html)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-washington/about-2500-protesters-converge-at-washington-state-capitol-against-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN22201H (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-washington/about-2500-protesters-converge-at-washington-state-capitol-against-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN22201H)

https://fox40.com/news/local-news/crowd-gathers-at-capitol-to-protest-stay-at-home-order/ (https://fox40.com/news/local-news/crowd-gathers-at-capitol-to-protest-stay-at-home-order/)

Apparently the protests against the "Mask Orders" and "Shelter in Place" orders is nationwide at a state capital though. Sacramento, Albany and Olympia had their protests at the same time for the same reasons though like in the one in North Carolina.

We've got our fair share of idiots trying to "LIBERATE VIRGINIA!" as well. :banghead:
Virginia had it's own "liberation" problems before corona.. for a different reason.

SM-G965U

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74aea/coronavirus-is-the-crisis-of-conspiracy-theorists-wildest-dreams
If you are wondering who the leaders of these protests against shelter in place orders and the Mask orders at the State Capital nationwide its a group of conspiracy theorists  and Pastor Tony Spell of Louisiana these are some of the leaders who are inciting people to violate the shelter in place and mask orders.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vaxxer-fear-coronavirus-vaccine/
https://www.wbrz.com/news/arrest-warrant-issued-for-controversial-central-pastor-tony-spell
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 01:33:35 PM
Baker cancelled school, so I'm at home till the fall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 21, 2020, 01:35:14 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 01:02:37 PM


https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74aea/coronavirus-is-the-crisis-of-conspiracy-theorists-wildest-dreams
If you are wondering who the leaders of these protests against shelter in place orders and the Mask orders at the State Capital nationwide its a group of conspiracy theorists  and Pastor Tony Spell of Louisiana these are some of the leaders who are inciting people to violate the shelter in place and mask orders.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vaxxer-fear-coronavirus-vaccine/
https://www.wbrz.com/news/arrest-warrant-issued-for-controversial-central-pastor-tony-spell


I see Alex Jones has joined the fray, as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 01:51:50 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 21, 2020, 01:35:14 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 01:02:37 PM


https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74aea/coronavirus-is-the-crisis-of-conspiracy-theorists-wildest-dreams (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74aea/coronavirus-is-the-crisis-of-conspiracy-theorists-wildest-dreams)
If you are wondering who the leaders of these protests against shelter in place orders and the Mask orders at the State Capital nationwide its a group of conspiracy theorists  and Pastor Tony Spell of Louisiana these are some of the leaders who are inciting people to violate the shelter in place and mask orders.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vaxxer-fear-coronavirus-vaccine/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vaxxer-fear-coronavirus-vaccine/)
https://www.wbrz.com/news/arrest-warrant-issued-for-controversial-central-pastor-tony-spell (https://www.wbrz.com/news/arrest-warrant-issued-for-controversial-central-pastor-tony-spell)


I see Alex Jones has joined the fray, as well.




https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/conservative-activist-family-behind-grassroots-anti-quarantine-facebook-events-n1188021 (https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/conservative-activist-family-behind-grassroots-anti-quarantine-facebook-events-n1188021)




https://www.inquirer.com/news/coronavirus-covid-rally-harrisburg-quarantine-shutdown-wolf-chris-dorr-20200420.html (https://www.inquirer.com/news/coronavirus-covid-rally-harrisburg-quarantine-shutdown-wolf-chris-dorr-20200420.html)


Apparently there is another group who is named as the leader of the Shelter in Place order Violations protests at the state Capital around the nation this group is called "The Dorr Brothers"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 03:04:37 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 21, 2020, 01:35:14 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 21, 2020, 01:02:37 PM


https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74aea/coronavirus-is-the-crisis-of-conspiracy-theorists-wildest-dreams
If you are wondering who the leaders of these protests against shelter in place orders and the Mask orders at the State Capital nationwide its a group of conspiracy theorists  and Pastor Tony Spell of Louisiana these are some of the leaders who are inciting people to violate the shelter in place and mask orders.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vaxxer-fear-coronavirus-vaccine/
https://www.wbrz.com/news/arrest-warrant-issued-for-controversial-central-pastor-tony-spell


I see Alex Jones has joined the fray, as well.
covid 19 will turn the frogs gay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on April 21, 2020, 03:14:23 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 21, 2020, 12:01:20 PM
I just want to know why California hasn't seen nearly as many deaths as Michigan (even though their population is 4x higher).  Why can't a reporter ask that question in one of the pressers.  The fact is the west coast isn't getting hit as hard as other parts of the country.  Why?

Better available health care+population with less risk factors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

I don't know about that, but I'm not terrified. The likelihood that any one person you may encounter has the virus is extremely low, and the odds are that you will catch it from an encounter with them are even lower.

As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 03:41:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

I don't know about that, but I'm not terrified. The likelihood that any one person you may encounter has the virus is extremely low, and the odds are that you will catch it from an encounter with them are even lower.

As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.
You won't be saying this once cases spike because people are protesting on the streets and everything is locked down for longer. Sure, personal rights are important, but not at the cost of public safety.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 21, 2020, 03:42:04 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

I don't know about that, but I'm not terrified. The likelihood that any one person you may encounter has the virus is extremely low, and the odds are that you will catch it from an encounter with them are even lower.


That's not at all true.  We know that many people have the virus and are asymptomatic.  As such, the likelihood that any one person you may encounter has the virus is higher than you think, and in "normal life" you encounter many people every day so it doesn't take long for the probability that you come in contact with someone with the virus gets above 50%.

Here's a better way to look at it: a health care worker, coming straight from their shift at a hospital, still dressed in scrubs, wants to join your first amendment gathering and be within 6 feet of everybody for several minutes.  If the organizer of the gathering would not allow it, then your first amendment argument is invalid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 21, 2020, 04:11:59 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 08:37:19 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 21, 2020, 08:13:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM
Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.
What are you thinking of as "takeout"?  Maybe you mean "delivery", as common for pizza places, Chinese, Door Dash and other services, etc. - and now a whole lot more restaurants that didn't have delivery services before.

My definition of "takeout" is where you go to the place, pick up your order, and "take it out" with you.  Drive-thru is the epitome of that.

To me, "takeout" would mean you go inside the restaurant and order "to go," as opposed to "for here," the difference in normal times being that when you order "for here" they put your food on a tray that you then take to a table to eat your food, whereas when you order "to go" they put it in  a bag and you normally leave with it... In my mind I distinguish the drive-thru from "takeout," although there probably isn't really any good reason for distinguishing between the two. I don't normally hear people using the term "takeout" except, perhaps, in reference to Chinese restaurants ("Chinese takeout").*

"To go" is generally used for fast food places, while "takeout" is generally used for other types of restaurants, like dine-in, and Chinese, as you mentioned. The difference is that you can walk right up to the counter at McDonalds or Wendys, place your order, and get your food right away, hence "to go". Not the case at other types of restaurants, where you'd be advised to place your order online or call it in in advance to avoid a lengthy wait.

The only practical point of distinction between the drive-thru and to-go is your physical location (at the counter vs. in your car) when you place your order. So that's not a very important distinction to make, but takeout, on the other hand, is distinct from the other two because it's a much slower type of service with a different order of events, and is generally not applicable to the fast-food industry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 21, 2020, 04:14:19 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 21, 2020, 04:11:59 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 08:37:19 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 21, 2020, 08:13:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM
Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.
What are you thinking of as "takeout"?  Maybe you mean "delivery", as common for pizza places, Chinese, Door Dash and other services, etc. - and now a whole lot more restaurants that didn't have delivery services before.

My definition of "takeout" is where you go to the place, pick up your order, and "take it out" with you.  Drive-thru is the epitome of that.

To me, "takeout" would mean you go inside the restaurant and order "to go," as opposed to "for here," the difference in normal times being that when you order "for here" they put your food on a tray that you then take to a table to eat your food, whereas when you order "to go" they put it in  a bag and you normally leave with it... In my mind I distinguish the drive-thru from "takeout," although there probably isn't really any good reason for distinguishing between the two. I don't normally hear people using the term "takeout" except, perhaps, in reference to Chinese restaurants ("Chinese takeout").*

"To go" is generally used for fast food places, while "takeout" is generally used for other types of restaurants, like dine-in, and Chinese, as you mentioned. The difference is that you can walk right up to the counter at McDonalds or Wendys, place your order, and get your food right away, hence "to go". Not the case at non-fast-food restaurants, where you'd be advised to place your order online or call it in in advance, to avoid a lengthy wait.

The only practical point of distinction between the drive-thru and to-go is your physical location (at the counter vs. in your car) when you place your order. So that's not a very important distinction to make, but takeout, on the other hand, is distinct from the other two because it's a much slower type of service with a different order of events.

Several chain restaurants in this area explicitly have to-go areas labeled, and they're not fast food.

I sometimes jokingly pronounce it Togo, just like the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 04:20:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.

The lockdowns have to go, but I think the protests might be delaying this process.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 21, 2020, 04:28:36 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 21, 2020, 04:14:19 PM
Several chain restaurants in this area explicitly have to-go areas labeled, and they're not fast food.

That may be, but the concept of to-go is unique to cases where you place your order in person right then and there. It's essentially synonymous with "on-demand".

If you're ordering off-site ahead of time, either by phone or online, then it's takeout.
If you're ordering in person and expecting your order right away, then you're either getting fast food, or wasting your time (or both, in some cases...)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 04:58:46 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 21, 2020, 04:11:59 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 08:37:19 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 21, 2020, 08:13:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM
Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.
What are you thinking of as "takeout"?  Maybe you mean "delivery", as common for pizza places, Chinese, Door Dash and other services, etc. - and now a whole lot more restaurants that didn't have delivery services before.

My definition of "takeout" is where you go to the place, pick up your order, and "take it out" with you.  Drive-thru is the epitome of that.

To me, "takeout" would mean you go inside the restaurant and order "to go," as opposed to "for here," the difference in normal times being that when you order "for here" they put your food on a tray that you then take to a table to eat your food, whereas when you order "to go" they put it in  a bag and you normally leave with it... In my mind I distinguish the drive-thru from "takeout," although there probably isn't really any good reason for distinguishing between the two. I don't normally hear people using the term "takeout" except, perhaps, in reference to Chinese restaurants ("Chinese takeout").*

"To go" is generally used for fast food places, while "takeout" is generally used for other types of restaurants, like dine-in, and Chinese, as you mentioned. The difference is that you can walk right up to the counter at McDonalds or Wendys, place your order, and get your food right away, hence "to go". Not the case at other types of restaurants, where you'd be advised to place your order online or call it in in advance to avoid a lengthy wait.

The only practical point of distinction between the drive-thru and to-go is your physical location (at the counter vs. in your car) when you place your order. So that's not a very important distinction to make, but takeout, on the other hand, is distinct from the other two because it's a much slower type of service with a different order of events, and is generally not applicable to the fast-food industry.


Prior to the pandemic situation, the term "takeout" hasn't really used a lot around here anyway, except sometimes in reference to Chinese restaurants. Pizza places sometimes use the word "carryout" to refer to someone going there to pick up the pizza as a way of distinguishing from "delivery."

I have heard the term "takeout" used in fast-food places in Brooklyn on occasion, but then they also don't say "for here"–they seem to prefer "to stay," as in "do you want this to stay or for takeout?" Maybe it's a regionalism because I've never heard that formulation outside of Brooklyn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 21, 2020, 05:19:54 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom.

Shouldn't I be free to not catch the virus? As long as there's a lockdown, I'm free from the tyranny of the economy forcing me to interact with the dipshit general public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 21, 2020, 05:23:21 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 04:58:46 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 21, 2020, 04:11:59 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 21, 2020, 08:37:19 AM
Quote from: GaryV on April 21, 2020, 08:13:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 07:49:18 AM
Drive through restaurants are still open? Thought it was just takeout.
What are you thinking of as "takeout"?  Maybe you mean "delivery", as common for pizza places, Chinese, Door Dash and other services, etc. - and now a whole lot more restaurants that didn't have delivery services before.

My definition of "takeout" is where you go to the place, pick up your order, and "take it out" with you.  Drive-thru is the epitome of that.

To me, "takeout" would mean you go inside the restaurant and order "to go," as opposed to "for here," the difference in normal times being that when you order "for here" they put your food on a tray that you then take to a table to eat your food, whereas when you order "to go" they put it in  a bag and you normally leave with it... In my mind I distinguish the drive-thru from "takeout," although there probably isn't really any good reason for distinguishing between the two. I don't normally hear people using the term "takeout" except, perhaps, in reference to Chinese restaurants ("Chinese takeout").*

"To go" is generally used for fast food places, while "takeout" is generally used for other types of restaurants, like dine-in, and Chinese, as you mentioned. The difference is that you can walk right up to the counter at McDonalds or Wendys, place your order, and get your food right away, hence "to go". Not the case at other types of restaurants, where you'd be advised to place your order online or call it in in advance to avoid a lengthy wait.

The only practical point of distinction between the drive-thru and to-go is your physical location (at the counter vs. in your car) when you place your order. So that's not a very important distinction to make, but takeout, on the other hand, is distinct from the other two because it's a much slower type of service with a different order of events, and is generally not applicable to the fast-food industry.


Prior to the pandemic situation, the term "takeout" hasn't really used a lot around here anyway, except sometimes in reference to Chinese restaurants. Pizza places sometimes use the word "carryout" to refer to someone going there to pick up the pizza as a way of distinguishing from "delivery."

I have heard the term "takeout" used in fast-food places in Brooklyn on occasion, but then they also don't say "for here"–they seem to prefer "to stay," as in "do you want this to stay or for takeout?" Maybe it's a regionalism because I've never heard that formulation outside of Brooklyn.
Looks like we need a map, similar to soda/cola/pop one
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 06:53:31 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 04:20:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.

The lockdowns have to go, but I think the protests might be delaying this process.

They're not the only ones.  Here's this gem from JB Priztker (Illinois Governor) today:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-peak-pritzker-20200421-wkf3uakc2bb7ph6iy6okfkyjqa-story.html

QuoteThe virus' peak had been expected in mid-to late April, but Pritzker said that's no longer the case in part because people have been adhering to his stay-at-home order.

"So it's been pushed out now, according to the models, to maybe mid-May, but at a lower level, and so we're moving, inching toward that date," Pritzker said during an online interview on The Washington Post Live.

So basically, since we've been "good" and stayed home, we pushed the "peak" back and have to stay home some more.

That's pretty fucked in the head, IMHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 06:54:00 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

I don't know about that, but I'm not terrified. The likelihood that any one person you may encounter has the virus is extremely low, and the odds are that you will catch it from an encounter with them are even lower.

As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.
OK Boomer.

Freedom to do what?  Die? 

The efforts to contain this are being countered because a bunch of dipshits felt they need to gather in close proximity to each other and risk theirs and others health so that their "word" is heard - with orange-stripe backing them (very unprofessional).

but of course, you won't hear, you only see the constitutions for what you want to see it for.  Do you see any further than 5 inches in front of your face? no? Didn't think so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 06:55:16 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 06:53:31 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 04:20:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.

The lockdowns have to go, but I think the protests might be delaying this process.

They're not the only ones.  Here's this gem from JB Priztker (Illinois Governor) today:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-peak-pritzker-20200421-wkf3uakc2bb7ph6iy6okfkyjqa-story.html

QuoteThe virus' peak had been expected in mid-to late April, but Pritzker said that's no longer the case in part because people have been adhering to his stay-at-home order.

"So it's been pushed out now, according to the models, to maybe mid-May, but at a lower level, and so we're moving, inching toward that date," Pritzker said during an online interview on The Washington Post Live.

So basically, since we've been "good" and stayed home, we pushed the "peak" back and have to stay home some more.

That's pretty fucked in the head, IMHO.
tell that to the protesters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 08:24:09 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 06:55:16 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 06:53:31 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 04:20:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.

The lockdowns have to go, but I think the protests might be delaying this process.

They're not the only ones.  Here's this gem from JB Priztker (Illinois Governor) today:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-peak-pritzker-20200421-wkf3uakc2bb7ph6iy6okfkyjqa-story.html

QuoteThe virus' peak had been expected in mid-to late April, but Pritzker said that's no longer the case in part because people have been adhering to his stay-at-home order.

"So it's been pushed out now, according to the models, to maybe mid-May, but at a lower level, and so we're moving, inching toward that date," Pritzker said during an online interview on The Washington Post Live.

So basically, since we've been "good" and stayed home, we pushed the "peak" back and have to stay home some more.

That's pretty fucked in the head, IMHO.
tell that to the protesters.

Did you bother to read the article?  It's not the protesters here, it's a governor saying that because we flattened the curve, we have to stay in more.  Excuse me, but that's fucked in the head.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 08:32:18 PM
Cases still being reported - how is the curve flat?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 21, 2020, 08:35:04 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 08:32:18 PM
Cases still being reported - how is the curve flat?

Flat means that the number of cases per day is remaining constant, and then it starts to decrease after that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 21, 2020, 08:35:44 PM
Because we've been staying home, fewer people have caught it, thus more people haven't caught it, so the peak of infections will be later, but the peak will also be lower which means fewer deaths. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 21, 2020, 08:40:46 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:35:44 PM
Because we've been staying home, fewer people have caught it, thus more people haven't caught it, so the peak of infections will be later, but the peak will also be lower which means fewer deaths.

That's not how I see it. What is basically happening is that every day, new cases multiply by 0.97 (example; unsure of exact number) under current conditions and 1.1 with only partial closure (or partial reopening – looking at you, Brian Kemp), but with a 14-day delay. As soon as a stay-in-place order is enacted, that should move the peak to one delay period after the executive order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 08:42:37 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:35:44 PM
Because we've been staying home, fewer people have caught it, thus more people haven't caught it, so the peak of infections will be later, but the peak will also be lower which means fewer deaths. 

Maybe, maybe not.  In some ways, and I hate to say it, it seems like just kicking the can down the road.  Either spike with x number of deaths early on or have x number of deaths over time.  Did I mention that x is a constant?

To play devil's advocate here, is this really worth it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 08:45:57 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 08:32:18 PM
Cases still being reported - how is the curve flat?

Pretty much every state had a big backlog of cases that was released a few days ago. California actually just released about 3,000 new cases from weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Alps on April 21, 2020, 08:46:21 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 08:42:37 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:35:44 PM
Because we've been staying home, fewer people have caught it, thus more people haven't caught it, so the peak of infections will be later, but the peak will also be lower which means fewer deaths. 

Maybe, maybe not.  In some ways, and I hate to say it, it seems like just kicking the can down the road.  Either spike with x number of deaths early on or have x number of deaths over time.  Did I mention that x is a constant?

To play devil's advocate here, is this really worth it?
You're missing the fact that if you spread out X number of cases (not deaths), hospitals are better equipped to handle it and potentially lower the number of deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 21, 2020, 08:49:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 08:42:37 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:35:44 PM
Because we've been staying home, fewer people have caught it, thus more people haven't caught it, so the peak of infections will be later, but the peak will also be lower which means fewer deaths. 

Maybe, maybe not.  In some ways, and I hate to say it, it seems like just kicking the can down the road.  Either spike with x number of deaths early on or have x number of deaths over time.  Did I mention that x is a constant?

To play devil's advocate here, is this really worth it?

x is not a constant. If you're going for herd immunity (as Sweden and the Netherlands are), the number of cases is a constant, but too many at once and the hospitals get overwhelmed, leading to a higher death rate. Compare Sweden with Norway; Norway matches most of the rest of the world regarding strategy, unlike Sweden.

There is an R0 value for any virus that indicates the average number of people each infected person will spread the virus to. (This refers back to my prior post, except it's per virus life cycle instead of per day). If R0 is more than 1, the virus will spread more. If R0 is less than 1, it will spread less and less with each cycle. Estimated values are 2.2-2.7 with life as usual and 0.9 with current conditions, but it also depends on population density.

If 20% of the population is immune (using 20% as an example number), R0 will be reduced by 20%. This is what herd immunity does. However, you can see that 20% is not high enough to get R0 below 1 with no social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 08:50:26 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 21, 2020, 10:26:50 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?  I'm fairly certain at this point I caught the virus in late December/early January but that's probably something I'll never have the chance to actually prove. 

I was tested on March 27th after exhibiting symptoms for over a week (shortness of breath, fever, chills).  The test came back negative.

We've had a couple family members tested here in California and at least one in Michigan.  I'm to understand the swabbing process is quite the "experience" .
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on April 21, 2020, 08:52:26 PM
Washington was on track to be able to ease out of our restrictions within a month or two, so long as the status quo of social distancing was maintained and upheld. Luckily, the vast majority of people have been doing so, but the hundred or so protesting in Olympia will inevitably cause it to spread and prolong the stay-home order. Because of a few nutjobs who think selfishly and consider themselves experts without being able to read anything longer than a Facebook post, we may be stuck for much longer.

This is what decades of dismantled education and anti-intellectualism gets us. Land of the Free, Home of the Braindead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 08:58:33 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 21, 2020, 08:52:26 PM
Washington was on track to be able to ease out of our restrictions within a month or two, so long as the status quo of social distancing was maintained and upheld. Luckily, the vast majority of people have been doing so, but the hundred or so protesting in Olympia will inevitably cause it to spread and prolong the stay-home order. Because of a few nutjobs who think selfishly and consider themselves experts without being able to read anything longer than a Facebook post, we may be stuck for much longer.

This is what decades of dismantled education and anti-intellectualism gets us. Land of the Free, Home of the Braindead.

Anti-intellectualism?...I don't see that as much of a major thing anymore.  Maybe twenty years ago being intelligent or being something of a thinker (god help you if you were a kid with a computer in the 1980s) would make one  a social pariah.  I would chalk most of what you see in the news as just the same stupid people who are always running around doing things of the like all the times .  I don't know what anyone is surprised to see the same crowd freaking out again over something like a lock down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 21, 2020, 09:03:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 21, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 20, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
Am I the only person who is terrified to even go into a store or a business now?

I don't know about that, but I'm not terrified. The likelihood that any one person you may encounter has the virus is extremely low, and the odds are that you will catch it from an encounter with them are even lower.

As for the protestors, I am firmly on their side. To me, it's not an issue of the economy, although I understand that people need to be able to work and pay their bills. To me, it's about freedom. How many constitutional rights have been cast aside because people are scared of getting sick? In Kentucky, three of the First Amendment freedoms have been violated -- freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and with the governor's decree banishing protestors to staying in their cars on the top level of the parking garage where they can't be seen or heard when he's doing his daily press conference/briefing, freedom to petition the governor for redress of grievances. The forced closure of businesses violates the "takings" clause because the government has taken away property from individuals by means other than eminent domain and has not offered just compensation. Restrictions on travel and store closures also likely violate the interstate commerce clause. I equate these protestors with the American revolutionaries of the 1770s because they are fighting for the same rights.

If basic rights aren't applicable in a time of crisis, they are worthless. They should especially be valid in times like these. The fact that people are voluntarily surrendering them for a false sense of safety scares me.


You have a very poor understanding of the Constitution.

First, no ones freedom of religion has been taken away. You can worship whatever you want. You can't do it in a church for the time being. Just like a zoning law. You don't have freedom to go to church.

Second, you haven't lost your right to assembly. No one is breaking up the political protests. And again, zoning laws are what's applicable here.

Third the takings clause applies when the government actually takes your property. Sales permits, liquor licsenses are all examples of limitations on commerce.

Everything is temporary. Nothing unconstitutional about any of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 09:09:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/378D22X.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 21, 2020, 09:27:28 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 21, 2020, 08:42:37 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 08:35:44 PM
Because we've been staying home, fewer people have caught it, thus more people haven't caught it, so the peak of infections will be later, but the peak will also be lower which means fewer deaths. 

Maybe, maybe not.  In some ways, and I hate to say it, it seems like just kicking the can down the road.  Either spike with x number of deaths early on or have x number of deaths over time.  Did I mention that x is a constant?

To play devil's advocate here, is this really worth it?
As was mentioned, cases, not deaths.  The idea is to avoid what happened to Italy, where people who otherwise could have been saved were just left to die because the medical system was overwhelmed.

Even with a flatter curve, NYC hospitals still had to line the hallways with beds to fit everyone in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 21, 2020, 09:47:54 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 21, 2020, 08:52:26 PM
Washington was on track to be able to ease out of our restrictions within a month or two, so long as the status quo of social distancing was maintained and upheld. Luckily, the vast majority of people have been doing so, but the hundred or so protesting in Olympia will inevitably cause it to spread and prolong the stay-home order. Because of a few nutjobs who think selfishly and consider themselves experts without being able to read anything longer than a Facebook post, we may be stuck for much longer.

So millions of people are more or less following social distancing rules, but a hundred or so who (I assume) on this one occasion didn't, are enough to undo the progress made so far? Maybe, but that seems a reach. Not helping, and not setting a good example, but ISTM not a disaster either.

I'm not really sympathetic to the protesters. They have a point about some states' restrictions (can't speak to your state) that seem more painful than helpful -- for example, the nonsense in some places about trying to prohibit drive-up (but fully socially-distant) church services, that thankfully got the pushback it deserved. OTOH, they say plenty of stupid or offensive things, especially attitudes unsympathetic to vulnerable populations (such as my elderly aunts, and to a lesser extent me, who I'd like to live) who they seem to treat as obstacles to economic recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 21, 2020, 09:54:13 PM
Part of the problem is that people keep saying "reopen the economy" instead of "reopen society." Economic losses can be quantified and remedied. Societal losses can't. You can't put a price tag on the fact that our social institutions have been pretty much destroyed by lockdowns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on April 21, 2020, 10:33:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 21, 2020, 05:19:54 PM
Shouldn't I be free to not catch the virus? As long as there's a lockdown, I'm free from the tyranny of the economy forcing me to interact with the dipshit general public.

There are some people who are not so lucky and are still having to go out for jobs.

Wasn't one of rally cries around the American Revolution "Give me liberty or give me death"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 21, 2020, 10:36:06 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 21, 2020, 10:33:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 21, 2020, 05:19:54 PM
Shouldn't I be free to not catch the virus? As long as there's a lockdown, I'm free from the tyranny of the economy forcing me to interact with the dipshit general public.

There are some people who are not so lucky and are still having to go out for jobs.

Wasn't one of rally cries around the American Revolution "Give me liberty or give me death"?
That's why we should be remedying that by giving benefits to workers out of a job so they don't have to work and spread the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PM
Your rights end when exercising them injures or kills another person, which is fairly universally accepted.

Ending lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Where people have trouble drawing the line is that ending the lockdown doesn't just put the people going out at risk.  The resulting increase in the number of cases creates more illness and death for health care workers, among others. 

If you wouldn't go to a hospital and shoot a health care worker, then you shouldn't be pushing to have lockdowns ended right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 21, 2020, 10:42:56 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 21, 2020, 09:47:54 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 21, 2020, 08:52:26 PM
Washington was on track to be able to ease out of our restrictions within a month or two, so long as the status quo of social distancing was maintained and upheld. Luckily, the vast majority of people have been doing so, but the hundred or so protesting in Olympia will inevitably cause it to spread and prolong the stay-home order. Because of a few nutjobs who think selfishly and consider themselves experts without being able to read anything longer than a Facebook post, we may be stuck for much longer.

So millions of people are more or less following social distancing rules, but a hundred or so who (I assume) on this one occasion didn't, are enough to undo the progress made so far? Maybe, but that seems a reach. Not helping, and not setting a good example, but ISTM not a disaster either.

I'm not really sympathetic to the protesters. They have a point about some states' restrictions (can't speak to your state) that seem more painful than helpful -- for example, the nonsense in some places about trying to prohibit drive-up (but fully socially-distant) church services, that thankfully got the pushback it deserved. OTOH, they say plenty of stupid or offensive things, especially attitudes unsympathetic to vulnerable populations (such as my elderly aunts, and to a lesser extent me, who I'd like to live) who they seem to treat as obstacles to economic recovery.
There was a fascinating story about one - ONE! - person in South Korea who got pretty much entirely responsible for a city-wide outbreak, infecting couple hundred people by ignoring recommendation and going to the church and busy restaurant.
Here we're talking about a hundred - most likely not most compliant people - who can easily double the case count in a city.
If you think about it, there is about 0.1-0.2% diagnosed infections, so ~1% infected in non-hot spot areas, few thousand in a mid-size city. These 100 people, plus their immediate family members,  plus incidental contacts...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 21, 2020, 10:51:18 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 21, 2020, 10:33:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 21, 2020, 05:19:54 PM
Shouldn't I be free to not catch the virus? As long as there's a lockdown, I'm free from the tyranny of the economy forcing me to interact with the dipshit general public.

There are some people who are not so lucky and are still having to go out for jobs.

Wasn't one of rally cries around the American Revolution "Give me liberty or give me death"?

Should people be honored at the idea of dying for "liberty"  on a ventilator in a hospital, that this is an honorable death in the name of American values?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 21, 2020, 10:52:30 PM
One of these protests are coming to my area soon... to the "abandoned" mall of all places, with 44 out of 10 going. Oddly enough, the guy hosting is lives at least two hours away from Springfield. The Ohio governor said that protesting was fine, as long as protesters stayed six feet apart.. seems like a good compromise between exercising the first and staying safe as first, but are people actually going to follow this, given they are protesting the very law that is making them stay that far apart? Probably not.

After SARS only seventeen years ago, then Swine flu ten years ago, I'm quite sure there will be another pandemic like this sometime in my lifetime. Considering the virus has had us spend three trillion, it may not be too bad of an idea to gradually start putting federal dollars aside in an untouchable fund reserved for another event like this? Start by fixing our budget. I'm looking at you, military.

My state was the first to bring legal action against China, claiming the virus had escaped from a lab. Do we have enough evidence on if that is true yet? No, Most scientists say it wasn't.       
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 21, 2020, 11:16:13 PM
Cases peaked in Michigan on April 3rd with 1,242 confirmed cases on that day.  On April 20th there were only 469 confirmed cases which is a 62% reduction in the number of daily cases.  Beaumont health just announced they are laying off nearly 2500 hundred workers as the hospitals are emptying out.  Based on the guidelines set forth by the Coronavirus task force, Michigan should begin Phase 1 in reopening the economy and begin easing restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 21, 2020, 11:55:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 21, 2020, 10:42:56 PM
There was a fascinating story about one - ONE! - person in South Korea who got pretty much entirely responsible for a city-wide outbreak, infecting couple hundred people by ignoring recommendation and going to the church and busy restaurant.

Of course, here and now that guy would've had less success spreading the virus, with in-person church services about as uncommon as busy restaurants, and widespread social distancing also limiting the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 22, 2020, 01:52:08 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 21, 2020, 09:47:05 AM
Has anyone who's been replying to this topic actually been tested or suspected they caught COVID-19?

I've had a few random bouts of coughing over the past month or so, though no fever or any other symptoms.

For a while I was assuming the idea I might have caught it was ridiculous, but the stats are now showing that >1.5% of the residents of the city I live in have explicitly tested positive - which means the actual percentage of the local population who've caught it is some amount greater than that.

Given the number of trips to the grocery store I've made since early March (once every 5-6 days), along with multiple trips to grab restaurant takeout and a trip to Home Depot a few weeks ago, I'd say it's statistically inevitable that I've been in close proximity to someone who was infected at least once, probably multiple times. This makes the idea that I may have had an asymptomatic/barely symptomatic case start to seem plausible, though without a serology test it's all speculative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 22, 2020, 06:56:03 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 09:09:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/378D22X.png)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/1c6943c372187ed186416b895f4eb06c/tenor.gif?itemid=5089552)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 22, 2020, 08:21:05 AM
Starting the week of March 22nd the country was effectively shutting down.  Two weeks later the daily new cases in the US peaked on April 4th suggesting the shut down was effective at stopping the spread.  Since then the daily new cases have dropped by 25%.  Even if we open up the country tomorrow it's going to take another two weeks before we see a potential increase in new cases, but until then the daily new cases in the US will continue dropping. It's my belief that once you reopen the country you won't see a spike in daily new cases but rather a plateau. 

(https://i.imgur.com/RPuTiZW.png)

Ultimately we have proven that we can control the spread of this virus by shutting down the country.  That's great but we can't keep this country shut down.  Even if the country reopens tomorrow, the contagion rate of the virus will be regulated by the simple fact that there is a healthy fear of this virus that didn't exist before the first wave of infections.  Sure, there are protesters but even many of them are wearing masks when they go out to protest.  Honestly, every day the economy doesn't reopen, the amount of protests will increase and that could have a bigger impact on how much this virus spreads vs if the country just began to slowly reopen (which we will eventually have to do anyways so let's start already).  These health experts can't stop the protests, so plug into the models if it would be more contagious to keep this country locked down and deal with an ever increasing number of protests, or if it would simply be better to slowly open things back up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 22, 2020, 08:37:17 AM
For those who do not survive the virus, the average number of days from onset of symptoms until death is 18 1/2 days.  With daily new cases peaking in America on April 4th, we would expect to see a peak in daily deaths around April 21st.  Hopefully daily deaths go down from here on out.

(https://i.imgur.com/m34s3Du.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 09:36:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
Autopsy done -when? Did they have bodies in cold storage until recently, did they do exhumations, or those are previously collected samples? If later, why do they call it autopsy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM
The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 11:28:19 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 09:36:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
Autopsy done -when? Did they have bodies in cold storage until recently, did they do exhumations, or those are previously collected samples? If later, why do they call it autopsy?

None that was clear to in the L.A. Times article.  The AP picked up the story also, I'm not sure if they have more information.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM
The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.
Related to that, I heard that the 49ers losing the super bowl could have saved many lives, as a parade attracts tons of people to one spot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 11:50:49 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM
The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.
Related to that, I heard that the 49ers losing the super bowl could have saved many lives, as a parade attracts tons of people to one spot.

Seems to be the case, I saw that same article a couple weeks backing you're referring to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 12:01:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 11:50:49 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM
The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.
Related to that, I heard that the 49ers losing the super bowl could have saved many lives, as a parade attracts tons of people to one spot.

Seems to be the case, I saw that same article a couple weeks backing you're referring to.
Yeah, Kansas City is inland enough so that covid took longer to reach it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 12:11:12 PM
California autopsy finding (based on tissue samples retained after death) that first COVID-19 death in US was likely February 6 rather than February 29 = increased likelihood that COVID-19 was spreading silently well before first cases were confirmed = more support for motivated reasoning in favor of "herd immunity is just around the corner: let's open it up now."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 22, 2020, 12:18:09 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 12:11:12 PM
California autopsy finding (based on tissue samples retained after death) that first COVID-19 death in US was likely February 6 rather than February 29 = increased likelihood that COVID-19 was spreading silently well before first cases were confirmed = more support for motivated reasoning in favor of "herd immunity is just around the corner: let's open it up now."

As I said earlier, herd immunity reduces R0. Estimated R0 for COVID-19 with no preventative measures is 2.2-2.7. If R0 is 2.5, that means that 1-1/2.5 = 60% of the population needs to have had it at some point for R0 to fall below 1. We're nowhere near 60%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 12:25:20 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 22, 2020, 12:18:09 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 12:11:12 PM
California autopsy finding (based on tissue samples retained after death) that first COVID-19 death in US was likely February 6 rather than February 29 = increased likelihood that COVID-19 was spreading silently well before first cases were confirmed = more support for motivated reasoning in favor of "herd immunity is just around the corner: let's open it up now."

As I said earlier, herd immunity reduces R0. Estimated R0 for COVID-19 with no preventative measures is 2.2-2.7. If R0 is 2.5, that means that 1-1/2.5 = 60% of the population needs to have had it at some point for R0 to fall below 1. We're nowhere near 60%.

Even still that news is going to put a ton of pressure to start opening things back up.  Some of the cities might backtrack on their orders but I doubt the Governor would given he has a pretty clear stance on.  I was reading somewhere this morning that Riverside County was looking at opening at least a partially in the near future.  I was kind of surprised given how close that is to Los Angeles County which is the virus hot spot in California. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 12:37:25 PM
It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 22, 2020, 12:53:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 12:37:25 PM
It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

I compare it to a bike with a wrecked front wheel. The wheel will be wobbly after the wreck, but it will still be somewhat usable until it gets to the shop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 01:00:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 12:37:25 PM
It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 01:05:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 01:00:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 12:37:25 PM
It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time.
Sure, question is finding the new balance - and that is means gradual reopening. Schools are the toughest part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 01:09:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 01:05:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 01:00:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 12:37:25 PM
It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time.
Sure, question is finding the new balance - and that is means gradual reopening. Schools are the toughest part.

Yes, the problem is that the two competing views are having issues finding a middle ground.  But then again that is just how most things in life tend to go whenever there is two views on any issue. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 22, 2020, 02:12:25 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM
The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.
School in NY goes through late June.  Lots of time between now and then.  The current stay at home order is only through May 15 - it hasn't been extended further yet.  Actually, that will be interesting, since Cuomo is talking about a regional approach to reopening.  And don't forget that school is de facto child care for most people.  It's going to be hard to have people come back to the office if they also have to be home supervising their children and guiding them through distance learning.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 01:00:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 12:37:25 PM
It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time. 
9/11 happened long enough ago that there will be people voting in this year's presidential election who weren't even born yet when it happened.  People still accept the "new normal" from that.  This is even bigger than 9/11.  Sure, a full lockdown can't stick around forever... but I wouldn't be surprised if we're still wearing masks in public, not having large gatherings, and dealing with annoying things like one-way aisles in the grocery store for a long, long time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 02:30:05 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

Wasn't close to half siding with the British anyways?  That war essentially was British citizens committing treason. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 22, 2020, 02:33:44 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 02:37:45 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 22, 2020, 02:33:44 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...
I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 22, 2020, 02:39:25 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 02:37:45 PM
I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?

I think there might actually be 3 different sides to this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 22, 2020, 02:43:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 02:37:45 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 22, 2020, 02:33:44 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...
I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?

Team Blue: WA, OR, CA (some inland places in all three states will unofficially be on Team Red), parts of MN, WI, MN, and PA unofficially (it's easier to stay than to secede, and all four states are split politically), all of DC, MD, DE, NY, NJ, and New England (NH doesn't want to be surrounded by the enemy on all sides), and IL and VA will split in two. If Canada is on Team Blue, both sides have entirely contiguous territory. (Note that NM and CO would be on Team Red for the same reason that NH is on Team Blue – they don't want to be surrounded by the enemy.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

It is truly baffling to me that this whole pandemic has somehow "compromised freedom". In case you hadn't heard, this virus is not unique to the US. It's affecting the entire world. Being the ultimate "free country" doesn't mean we can magically handle a novel, unprecedented pandemic in a different, more "free" way than other countries. It was an absolute must to lock down when we did. It was almost too late as it was. Give me a break with all the contrarian stuff about freedoms and liberties being infringed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 22, 2020, 02:55:38 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.


To be honest, there wasn't much of a difference.  Just replaced one ruling class with another.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 03:00:52 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 22, 2020, 02:43:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 02:37:45 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 22, 2020, 02:33:44 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...
I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?

Team Blue: WA, OR, CA (some inland places in all three states will unofficially be on Team Red), parts of MN, WI, MN, and PA unofficially (it's easier to stay than to secede, and all four states are split politically), all of DC, MD, DE, NY, NJ, and New England (NH doesn't want to be surrounded by the enemy on all sides), and IL and VA will split in two. If Canada is on Team Blue, both sides have entirely contiguous territory. (Note that NM and CO would be on Team Red for the same reason that NH is on Team Blue – they don't want to be surrounded by the enemy.)
I do feel like less states would secede, with most deep red confederate states wanting out. NM, COL, and AZ I feel like would stay.
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.
Every state still gets representation in congress, so your analogy falls apart. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 03:13:25 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 22, 2020, 02:33:44 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...

We aren't close to a Civil War.   The overwhelming majority of people who talk shit about succession on things like Facebook aren't willing to take up arms for the things they "believe."   Nobody would be a real driver in something like that is the political world is calling for succession.  What we see State side right now with the virus measures isn't exclusive to the United State. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 22, 2020, 04:04:44 PM
The owner of the Gold's Gym locations in Virginia has filed a lawsuit against the governor.

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/sen-stanley-helps-file-lawsuit-against-gov-northams-order-to-close-businesses (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/sen-stanley-helps-file-lawsuit-against-gov-northams-order-to-close-businesses)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 22, 2020, 04:16:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 22, 2020, 08:21:05 AM
Starting the week of March 22nd the country was effectively shutting down.  Two weeks later the daily new cases in the US peaked on April 4th suggesting the shut down was effective at stopping the spread.  Since then the daily new cases have dropped by 25%.  Even if we open up the country tomorrow it's going to take another two weeks before we see a potential increase in new cases, but until then the daily new cases in the US will continue dropping. It's my belief that once you reopen the country you won't see a spike in daily new cases but rather a plateau. 

(https://i.imgur.com/RPuTiZW.png)

Ultimately we have proven that we can control the spread of this virus by shutting down the country.  That's great but we can't keep this country shut down.  Even if the country reopens tomorrow, the contagion rate of the virus will be regulated by the simple fact that there is a healthy fear of this virus that didn't exist before the first wave of infections.  Sure, there are protesters but even many of them are wearing masks when they go out to protest.  Honestly, every day the economy doesn't reopen, the amount of protests will increase and that could have a bigger impact on how much this virus spreads vs if the country just began to slowly reopen (which we will eventually have to do anyways so let's start already).  These health experts can't stop the protests, so plug into the models if it would be more contagious to keep this country locked down and deal with an ever increasing number of protests, or if it would simply be better to slowly open things back up.

I disagree. If we loosen social distancing guidelines too quickly, then of course there would be a huge resurgence of cases. I'm looking at you GA and SC...   :crazy:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 22, 2020, 04:17:36 PM
Missouri and Mississippi are suing China.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494143-mississippi-to-sue-china-over-response-to-coronavirus-outbreak (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494143-mississippi-to-sue-china-over-response-to-coronavirus-outbreak)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 04:20:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

It is truly baffling to me that this whole pandemic has somehow "compromised freedom". In case you hadn't heard, this virus is not unique to the US. It's affecting the entire world. Being the ultimate "free country" doesn't mean we can magically handle a novel, unprecedented pandemic in a different, more "free" way than other countries. It was an absolute must to lock down when we did. It was almost too late as it was. Give me a break with all the contrarian stuff about freedoms and liberties being infringed.

From the perspective of an outsider, I always kind of laugh when I see American's touting their freedoms.

Americans aren't really any more or less "free" than any other citizen in any other democracy.

For example.  South Korea has both a constitution and a bill or rights, and their citizens are afforded the same general liberties as any American is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 04:29:34 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 04:20:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

From the perspective of an outsider, I always kind of laugh when I see American's touting their freedoms.

Americans aren't really any more or less "free" than any other citizen in any other democracy.

For example.  South Korea has both a constitution and a bill or rights, and their citizens are afforded the same general liberties as any American is.
It is truly baffling to me that this whole pandemic has somehow "compromised freedom". In case you hadn't heard, this virus is not unique to the US. It's affecting the entire world. Being the ultimate "free country" doesn't mean we can magically handle a novel, unprecedented pandemic in a different, more "free" way than other countries. It was an absolute must to lock down when we did. It was almost too late as it was. Give me a break with all the contrarian stuff about freedoms and liberties being infringed.
Quote broken, but I agree. America is just another country, it's not super "special" or exceptional". Some people need to chill out with America exceptionalism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 04:34:30 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 04:20:34 PMFrom the perspective of an outsider, I always kind of laugh when I see American's touting their freedoms.

Americans aren't really any more or less "free" than any other citizen in any other democracy.

For example.  South Korea has both a constitution and a bill or rights, and their citizens are afforded the same general liberties as any American is.

There is a tendency in the US, probably more marked than in other advanced countries, to see the document laying out basic civil rights--in our case, the Bill of Rights--as testamentary.

In any event, the discussion so far in this thread has been in broad strokes and has not taken into account the fact that rights are not absolutes and are not interpreted as such in our jurisprudence.  (Free speech does not allow falsely shouting "Fire!" in a crowded theatre, and so on.)  There is only a requirement that policies cutting across them be subject to what is called strict scrutiny:  this means that any measure suspending or limiting the exercise of a right must be of the minimum scope required to accomplish its purpose.  In Kansas, for example, this has meant the governor's order forbidding church services of more than 10 persons has been suspended in favor of an injunction laying out painfully strict social distancing requirements for churches.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 22, 2020, 04:37:24 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 22, 2020, 04:04:44 PM
The owner of the Gold's Gym locations in Virginia has filed a lawsuit against the governor.

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/sen-stanley-helps-file-lawsuit-against-gov-northams-order-to-close-businesses (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/sen-stanley-helps-file-lawsuit-against-gov-northams-order-to-close-businesses)

Not a gym rat myself, but I wonder how much of Gold's Gym membership will rush back to the gyms even if the order is enjoined (or if it unconditionally expires on May 8, rather than be extended at least in part). Opening up the economy takes more than just relaxing the rules. Business owners and their customers have to feel safe, too.

Just as one data point, even before my favorite barbershop was ordered to close, it was losing customer bookings as people decided they didn't need a haircut badly enough to take their chances. The customers who've gone for two months without a haircut, rather than get by with spousal or DIY haircuts (or just shaving their heads), might come back ... assuming the shop reopens at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 22, 2020, 04:43:26 PM
The NYC social distancing hotline went about as well as you would expect..

(https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/de-blasios-social-distancing-tip-line-flooded-with-obscenities/%5B/url)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 22, 2020, 04:46:39 PM
The first amendment doesn't disappear during a pandemic.  The governors have two options right now and both will lead to further virus spread:

Option 1:  Extend their stay at home orders.  In response, more people will congregate and protest what they see as their tyrannical governor.  Meanwhile, the economy is shut down and the virus spreads as the people ban together to protest.

Option 2: Relax restrictions.  Begin to open up the economy slowly, and the virus will spread with the increase in economic activity. But if you open things up slowly you can manage the spread.

If the virus is going to spread, I'd want it to be because the economy has started to reopen and not because someone on Facebook promotes a massive march on Washington to protest their tyrannical government.  The people are speaking loudly.  Are we really waiting to reopen the economy until we have enough tests available for contact tracing?  GMAFB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 22, 2020, 04:55:25 PM
There are more than two options. Americans are just specifically conditioned to believe there are only two irreconcilable choices in any given scenario.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 22, 2020, 05:06:41 PM
I intend to keep Social Distancing for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 22, 2020, 05:10:28 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM
The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.
OK, you can remove Nevada and South Carolina from that list now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 22, 2020, 05:31:32 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 22, 2020, 04:55:25 PM
There are more than two options. Americans are just specifically conditioned to believe there are only two irreconcilable choices in any given scenario.

There really are only two options these governors are considering - lifting the stay at home orders or keeping them in place.  Regardless of their choice there will be further virus spread.  Nationally daily new cases have declined over the past 2 weeks (which is the main criteria to meet before moving to phase one of reopening).  All i can say is thank god there is a mix of governors with different viewpoints on how to best deal with this situation.  If there were 50 Gretchen Whitmer's the entire country would be locked down till Christmas. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 22, 2020, 05:33:28 PM
2 kitty cats in NY tested positive.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2-pet-cats-new-york-test-positive-for-covid19-new-coronavirus-today-2020-04-22/# (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2-pet-cats-new-york-test-positive-for-covid19-new-coronavirus-today-2020-04-22/#)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 05:35:30 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 22, 2020, 04:37:24 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 22, 2020, 04:04:44 PM
The owner of the Gold's Gym locations in Virginia has filed a lawsuit against the governor.

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/sen-stanley-helps-file-lawsuit-against-gov-northams-order-to-close-businesses (https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/sen-stanley-helps-file-lawsuit-against-gov-northams-order-to-close-businesses)

Not a gym rat myself, but I wonder how much of Gold's Gym membership will rush back to the gyms even if the order is enjoined (or if it unconditionally expires on May 8, rather than be extended at least in part). Opening up the economy takes more than just relaxing the rules. Business owners and their customers have to feel safe, too.

Just as one data point, even before my favorite barbershop was ordered to close, it was losing customer bookings as people decided they didn't need a haircut badly enough to take their chances. The customers who've gone for two months without a haircut, rather than get by with spousal or DIY haircuts (or just shaving their heads), might come back ... assuming the shop reopens at all.

The last few times that I went to the gym before non-essential businesses were closed in Ontario things were definitely starting to thin out on their own.

Sweden is an interesting case because it's one of the few countries that hasn't imposed a lockdown, however despite the fact that most businesses haven't been legally required to close, foot traffic and sales is often way down anyways as people aren't as eager to go out in public as they were before the pandemic hit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 22, 2020, 04:37:24 PMNot a gym rat myself, but I wonder how much of Gold's Gym membership will rush back to the gyms even if the order is enjoined (or if it unconditionally expires on May 8, rather than be extended at least in part). Opening up the economy takes more than just relaxing the rules. Business owners and their customers have to feel safe, too.

Sedgwick County, where I live, was under a stay-at-home order that took effect at 12.01 AM on Wednesday, March 25, and was in effect until it was overriden by the statewide stay-at-home order on March 30.  But, really, March 15 (10 days earlier) was the last day things carried on as normal.  Our YMCA closed indefinitely on March 16 (membership fees were later suspended), our library and schools statewide were both closed on March 17, and so on.

I wonder if Gold's Gym is suing because it feels Virginia's stay-at-home order impinges on its business model to a greater degree than is the case for other fitness clubs.  From what I understand, it caters to serious bodybuilders and weightlifters and memberships are expensive, one of the selling points being that if you have to travel frequently for business, you can use your membership at any Gold's you find on the road and thus are not limited to the machines and granny weights in a typical hotel fitness center.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 05:37:08 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 22, 2020, 05:33:28 PM
2 kitty cats in NY tested positive.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2-pet-cats-new-york-test-positive-for-covid19-new-coronavirus-today-2020-04-22/# (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2-pet-cats-new-york-test-positive-for-covid19-new-coronavirus-today-2020-04-22/#)

Those cats must've eaten some bats.

:spin:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 05:54:26 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 22, 2020, 04:37:24 PMNot a gym rat myself, but I wonder how much of Gold's Gym membership will rush back to the gyms even if the order is enjoined (or if it unconditionally expires on May 8, rather than be extended at least in part). Opening up the economy takes more than just relaxing the rules. Business owners and their customers have to feel safe, too.

Sedgwick County, where I live, was under a stay-at-home order that took effect at 12.01 AM on Wednesday, March 25, and was in effect until it was overriden by the statewide stay-at-home order on March 30.  But, really, March 15 (10 days earlier) was the last day things carried on as normal.  Our YMCA closed indefinitely on March 16 (membership fees were later suspended), our library and schools statewide were both closed on March 17, and so on.

I wonder if Gold's Gym is suing because it feels Virginia's stay-at-home order impinges on its business model to a greater degree than is the case for other fitness clubs.  From what I understand, it caters to serious bodybuilders and weightlifters and memberships are expensive, one of the selling points being that if you have to travel frequently for business, you can use your membership at any Gold's you find on the road and thus are not limited to the machines and granny weights in a typical hotel fitness center.

I went to the gym up until the day it closed.  It progressively got more and more quiet the week or so up to when Fresno issues it's order.  I have a home gym that I set up and do all my cardio outside anyways, so in that sense I was as affected as most.  I'll be back the first day the gym reopens, I can't match the diversity of strength exercises at home forever. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on April 22, 2020, 06:14:46 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on April 21, 2020, 09:09:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/378D22X.png)
+1


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 06:24:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 05:54:26 PMI went to the gym up until the day it closed.  It progressively got more and more quiet the week or so up to when Fresno issues it's order.  I have a home gym that I set up and do all my cardio outside anyways, so in that sense I was as affected as most.  I'll be back the first day the gym reopens, I can't match the diversity of strength exercises at home forever.

Amen.

I maintained my routine right up to closure as well.  (March 16 would otherwise have been the first day of my usual Monday-Wednesday-Friday routine.)  The week before, there were signs management was getting antsy about COVID-19.  On March 11 we got an email telling us they were going to step up cleaning of contact surfaces; I was hoping this meant they would be more consistent about ensuring they had towels at the front desk to hand you when you checked in.  That day I got one, and they had a member of staff on the floor changing out the towels next to the bottles of sanitizer.  (Every machine has a holster for a sanitizer spray bottle and towel, but not all have a bottle at any given time, and you don't usually get dirty looks for not spraying and wiping as long as you drape your towel over skin contact areas and dry-wipe the handles.)  The next day I went--March 13, a Friday--it was back to normal, with no towel at the desk for me.

I plan to be back as soon as they reopen.  I didn't try to set up a gym at home--no room--and as a result I have lost strength and muscle tone, though I have been walking to stay active and have not gained any weight since my diet pretty much prevents it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 22, 2020, 06:28:06 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 22, 2020, 02:55:38 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.


To be honest, there wasn't much of a difference.  Just replaced one ruling class with another.   

The American "Revolution" wasn't really a true "revolution." It was a revolt or a rebellion.  The French Revolution was a true revolution in that it fundamentally remade French society in so many ways, whereas the American one was, as you say, more about changing the form of government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 22, 2020, 06:35:49 PM
Having a civil war over the way you choose to die is the ultimate in stupidity, if we'd rather do that than work together to figure out a way to survive.  I don't think we're at that point of divisiveness just yet.

On another topic, America is a special place.  We put a man on the moon.  We led the world through some of the greatest turmoil and the greatest prosperity in human history.  That kind of ambition and determination serves us well when we use it to help the world become better.  It serves us poorly when we look at our grandparents' accomplishment and believe that prideful arrogance is our birthright.  Americans, though, are not special.  We're no less likely to die from this virus than any other humans.  Actually, we're proving to be quite good at it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 22, 2020, 06:57:34 PM
The best way to clear up any confusion would be to acknowledge in these executive orders that they cannot preclude basic Constitutional rights.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 22, 2020, 07:03:39 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on April 22, 2020, 06:57:34 PM
The best way to clear up any confusion would be to acknowledge in these executive orders that they cannot preclude basic Constitutional rights.

Church services can be held online.

Freedom of assembly may be an issue, but when your actions cause the virus to spread, you're definitely not helping your cause. In addition, most of the "X people or fewer" restrictions are not enforced by law; it's mostly happening due to people not wanting to get the virus, and the few major exceptions go on the news, and everyone gets mad at the group.

State border checkpoints need to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 07:20:33 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 22, 2020, 06:24:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 05:54:26 PMI went to the gym up until the day it closed.  It progressively got more and more quiet the week or so up to when Fresno issues it's order.  I have a home gym that I set up and do all my cardio outside anyways, so in that sense I was as affected as most.  I'll be back the first day the gym reopens, I can't match the diversity of strength exercises at home forever.

Amen.

I maintained my routine right up to closure as well.  (March 16 would otherwise have been the first day of my usual Monday-Wednesday-Friday routine.)  The week before, there were signs management was getting antsy about COVID-19.  On March 11 we got an email telling us they were going to step up cleaning of contact surfaces; I was hoping this meant they would be more consistent about ensuring they had towels at the front desk to hand you when you checked in.  That day I got one, and they had a member of staff on the floor changing out the towels next to the bottles of sanitizer.  (Every machine has a holster for a sanitizer spray bottle and towel, but not all have a bottle at any given time, and you don't usually get dirty looks for not spraying and wiping as long as you drape your towel over skin contact areas and dry-wipe the handles.)  The next day I went--March 13, a Friday--it was back to normal, with no towel at the desk for me.

I plan to be back as soon as they reopen.  I didn't try to set up a gym at home--no room--and as a result I have lost strength and muscle tone, though I have been walking to stay active and have not gained any weight since my diet pretty much prevents it.

Here there wasn't so many dirty looks and extra cleaning but rather mostly just frustration but the regulars at the gym over what we probably all knew what was coming.  I had the home gym set up from equipment I had already on hand, it was just a matter of breaking it all out in the garage.  I used to train people as a side gig so coming up with at-home weight resistance training solutions wasn't too much of a hassle (except for installing my pull up bar with these high doors in the house).  I have a pretty solid routine for biceps, triceps, and shoulders.  I don't have a flat bench so I've been substituting in about 400-600 pushups for a chest work out.  Ab exercises are kind of easy to do with the medicine balls I have in addition to an older shower chair that I found outside.  I don't really have much in the way for back at the moment aside from cranking my rower up to the highest resistance and staying on it for 20 minutes/2,500 meters.  I do a lot of lunges but leg exercises never have been really all that necessary with how much distance running I do.

Regardless, it will be good to get back into the gym and start to diversify again.  I can't imagine the gym will be very busy for the first couple weeks after it opens.  I did step up from 30 miles running a week up to 50 interim to substitute for my hikes that I'm missing out on.  I did pick up a new mountain bike which I started training with last night.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 22, 2020, 08:33:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 02:30:05 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

Wasn't close to half siding with the British anyways?  That war essentially was British citizens committing treason.

As I recall being taught in school, people were about evenly split three ways - between being loyal to the king ("Tories"), being in favor of independence ("Patriots"), and not really having a strong opinion one way or the other.

It should also be noted that even this was only within the 13 colonies that had formed the continental congress and subsequently put the Declaration of Independence together. The British had 7 other colonies in North America in 1776 (5 of them are now part of Canada, the other 2 became part of the US later with the annexation of Florida), which remained generally loyal to the crown and didn't much care to get involved in any rebellion.

So in response to the assertion that "if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British", I'd say that that's rather consistent with history - at the time of the actual American Revolution, most people were on the side of the British. This is why Canada exists and still has the Queen of England as their head of state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 08:39:45 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 04:29:34 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 04:20:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.
It is truly baffling to me that this whole pandemic has somehow "compromised freedom". In case you hadn't heard, this virus is not unique to the US. It's affecting the entire world. Being the ultimate "free country" doesn't mean we can magically handle a novel, unprecedented pandemic in a different, more "free" way than other countries. It was an absolute must to lock down when we did. It was almost too late as it was. Give me a break with all the contrarian stuff about freedoms and liberties being infringed.
From the perspective of an outsider, I always kind of laugh when I see American's touting their freedoms.

Americans aren't really any more or less "free" than any other citizen in any other democracy.

For example.  South Korea has both a constitution and a bill or rights, and their citizens are afforded the same general liberties as any American is.
Quote broken, but I agree. America is just another country, it's not super "special" or exceptional". Some people need to chill out with America exceptionalism.

Yikes, FTFY.

America is special because of the basis on which it was founded, and the way it has been uniquely prospered as a nation in the years since. However, as far as the basics of democracy, especially as pertains to personal freedom, there are no fundamental differences from other democracies in places like Canada, Europe, and Australasia.

(The actual operations of the branches of government, the election process, and so on, are of course a very different story, but that's irrelevant to the current conversation.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 22, 2020, 08:49:21 PM
OK, so maybe Trump isn't THAT insane...
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494231-trump-i-disagree-strongly-over-ga-governors-decision-to-reopen-economy?amp=1&amp_recirculation=1
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PM
Your rights end when exercising them injures or kills another person, which is fairly universally accepted.

And I am not going to eventually get this virus on a trip to restock my stash of groceries or performing an essential job?

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:36:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)

Since when is 30s and 40s young adults?

Also, the article doesn't really go into any detail if these individuals were healthy or had conditions that might increase the risk of a stroke.  It would be one thing if trained athletes were having stroked versus someone of the same age who smokes and is overweight. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 02:07:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:36:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)

Since when is 30s and 40s young adults?

Also, the article doesn't really go into any detail if these individuals were healthy or had conditions that might increase the risk of a stroke.  It would be one thing if trained athletes were having stroked versus someone of the same age who smokes and is overweight.
I guess since 50 is the new 30. People are living till 80-100 so that means new age groups.


Also the article says they "had no prior health history" . Idk if that means they couldn't access files or that they were health adults. However Delaware has been letting it known if the person who passed had underlying health issues.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 23, 2020, 02:27:18 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 22, 2020, 02:43:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 22, 2020, 02:37:45 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 22, 2020, 02:33:44 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...
I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?

Team Blue: WA, OR, CA (some inland places in all three states will unofficially be on Team Red), parts of MN, WI, MN, and PA unofficially (it's easier to stay than to secede, and all four states are split politically), all of DC, MD, DE, NY, NJ, and New England (NH doesn't want to be surrounded by the enemy on all sides), and IL and VA will split in two. If Canada is on Team Blue, both sides have entirely contiguous territory. (Note that NM and CO would be on Team Red for the same reason that NH is on Team Blue – they don't want to be surrounded by the enemy.)

If secession seriously came up as something that might happen, I think you'd see WA, OR, and maybe some areas of CA become their own country. BC would likely be in for the party as well.

I only say this because Cascadia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_(independence_movement)) has been a serious discussion before, and this would be the perfect scenario that might cause this breaking-off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 07:42:56 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 02:07:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:36:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)

Since when is 30s and 40s young adults?

Also, the article doesn't really go into any detail if these individuals were healthy or had conditions that might increase the risk of a stroke.  It would be one thing if trained athletes were having stroked versus someone of the same age who smokes and is overweight.
I guess since 50 is the new 30. People are living till 80-100 so that means new age groups.


Also the article says they "had no prior health history" . Idk if that means they couldn't access files or that they were health adults. However Delaware has been letting it known if the person who passed had underlying health issues.


iPhone

I don't feel like a "young adult"  at close to forty.  I noticed that's a thing these days, people will tell me that I'm still "so young."   How is the case when statistically speaking my lifespan is about half over?  Nobody would have told my Dad and Grand Fathers that they were "young"  at 30 much less 40. 

Anyways, the "no health"  doesn't mean that all the individuals were in fact healthy.  Lots of people who lead unhealthy lives don't see the doctor regularly or if ever.  I've noticed that there has been an tendency to not really elaborate on really critical details in these articles that could be useful.  The way the article is written sounds as though it's meant to spook non-elderly readers into thinking that they could have sudden strokes.  That may be the case but it would be nice to have more substantive detail than just a couple paragraphs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 08:04:53 AM
NC governor is announcing a reopening plan today.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/governor-cooper-expected-to-announce-reopening-plan-thursday-afternoon/19067407/ (https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/governor-cooper-expected-to-announce-reopening-plan-thursday-afternoon/19067407/)

Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 22, 2020, 08:49:21 PM
OK, so maybe Trump isn't THAT insane...
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494231-trump-i-disagree-strongly-over-ga-governors-decision-to-reopen-economy?amp=1&amp_recirculation=1

Even a broken president clock is right twice a day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 23, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

You know who "must go outside?"  The health care workers, who have to increase/prolong their exposure risk because some idiot governor wants to be popular and free everybody.  The health care workers don't get to choose to stay home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 08:39:45 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 22, 2020, 04:29:34 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 04:20:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.
It is truly baffling to me that this whole pandemic has somehow "compromised freedom". In case you hadn't heard, this virus is not unique to the US. It's affecting the entire world. Being the ultimate "free country" doesn't mean we can magically handle a novel, unprecedented pandemic in a different, more "free" way than other countries. It was an absolute must to lock down when we did. It was almost too late as it was. Give me a break with all the contrarian stuff about freedoms and liberties being infringed.
From the perspective of an outsider, I always kind of laugh when I see American's touting their freedoms.

Americans aren't really any more or less "free" than any other citizen in any other democracy.

For example.  South Korea has both a constitution and a bill or rights, and their citizens are afforded the same general liberties as any American is.
Quote broken, but I agree. America is just another country, it's not super "special" or exceptional". Some people need to chill out with America exceptionalism.

Yikes, FTFY.

America is special because of the basis on which it was founded, and the way it has been uniquely prospered as a nation in the years since.


Sorry, but what is special about how the United States was founded?  Revolts against distant rule have happened for time eternal.  The continue to happen.  And will happen well into the future.

America would have prospered either way.  But instead of being colonies of a government ruled by white, male landowners in Britain, it became a governement of white, male, landowners here.  The British were not some tyranical regime.  Look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  They've all been just fine both during and after British rule.

Also, it shouldn't be lost on people that the UK banned slavery about 30 years before the American Civil War.

Don't get me wrong.  It's worked out just fine.  But a more critical understanding of history would see that it wasn't some unique revolution. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 23, 2020, 09:16:11 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  They've all been just fine both during and after British rule.

Those weren't wars. There are some good examples of independence via war, but not those three.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 23, 2020, 09:43:22 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 23, 2020, 09:16:11 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  They've all been just fine both during and after British rule.

Those weren't wars. There are some good examples of independence via war, but not those three.

That was SEWIGuy's point, wasn't it? You omitted the sentence prior to what you quoted: "The British were not some tyrannical regime."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:43:44 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 23, 2020, 09:16:11 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  They've all been just fine both during and after British rule.

Those weren't wars. There are some good examples of independence via war, but not those three.


That's my point, which I didn't articulate clearly enough.

Those three countries are examples of how countries formerly under British rule became independent anyway without the need of a war.  Their citizens were fine under British rule and are fine now.  The British weren't the tyrants that history sometimes paints them to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 23, 2020, 10:29:34 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 08:39:45 PM
America is special because of the basis on which it was founded, and the way it has been uniquely prospered as a nation in the years since.
Sorry, but what is special about how the United States was founded?  Revolts against distant rule have happened for time eternal.  The continue to happen.  And will happen well into the future.
...
Don't get me wrong.  It's worked out just fine.  But a more critical understanding of history would see that it wasn't some unique revolution.

It was the first major country not ruled by a king or queen and founded on the basis of freedom, equality, and justice. Most other countries were monarchies before the American Revolution, and it was because of the US that the concept of democracy became more widespread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 10:35:59 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

You know who "must go outside?"  The health care workers, who have to increase/prolong their exposure risk because some idiot governor wants to be popular and free everybody.  The health care workers don't get to choose to stay home.
Well yeah, but not everyone's a health care worker, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 23, 2020, 10:51:29 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 10:35:59 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

You know who "must go outside?"  The health care workers, who have to increase/prolong their exposure risk because some idiot governor wants to be popular and free everybody.  The health care workers don't get to choose to stay home.
Well yeah, but not everyone's a health care worker, right?
Yes, but their lives are being put at stake. Nobody is going to die because they can't go to the salon.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:43:44 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 23, 2020, 09:16:11 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  They've all been just fine both during and after British rule.

Those weren't wars. There are some good examples of independence via war, but not those three.


That's my point, which I didn't articulate clearly enough.

Those three countries are examples of how countries formerly under British rule became independent anyway without the need of a war.  Their citizens were fine under British rule and are fine now.  The British weren't the tyrants that history sometimes paints them to be.
The British were tyrants, just not to English speakers. Look up the Bengal famine or the Irish potato famine. I do understand your point though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 10:55:29 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

You know who "must go outside?"  The health care workers, who have to increase/prolong their exposure risk because some idiot governor wants to be popular and free everybody.  The health care workers don't get to choose to stay home.

I'm not sure how this will sound, but is it not part of a health care workers job to be potentially exposed to some hazards?   I certainly don't think anyone who is of sound mind who enters a health care field goes in with the perception they won't be exposed to a disease at some point.  Granted most health care works probably DO have an expectation about being provided proper PPE. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 23, 2020, 10:58:23 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 10:55:29 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

You know who "must go outside?"  The health care workers, who have to increase/prolong their exposure risk because some idiot governor wants to be popular and free everybody.  The health care workers don't get to choose to stay home.

I'm not sure how this will sound, but is it not part of a health care workers job to be potentially exposed to some hazards?   I certainly don't think anyone who is of sound mind who enters a health care field goes in with the perception they won't be exposed to a disease at some point.  Granted most health care works probably DO have an expectation about being provided proper PPE. 

We had a pandemic before we knew it and hundreds of thousands got infected and health care workers got put at risk.  Nobody could have prevented that.  However, now we're in a position to limit that risk, so unless you're willing to pony up a bunch of extra tax money to give the health care workers a boatload of hazard pay for preventable exposure, stay the fuck at home for a few more weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 11:10:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 07:42:56 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 02:07:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:36:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)

Since when is 30s and 40s young adults?

Also, the article doesn't really go into any detail if these individuals were healthy or had conditions that might increase the risk of a stroke.  It would be one thing if trained athletes were having stroked versus someone of the same age who smokes and is overweight.
I guess since 50 is the new 30. People are living till 80-100 so that means new age groups.


Also the article says they "had no prior health history" . Idk if that means they couldn't access files or that they were health adults. However Delaware has been letting it known if the person who passed had underlying health issues.


iPhone

I don't feel like a "young adult"  at close to forty.  I noticed that's a thing these days, people will tell me that I'm still "so young."   How is the case when statistically speaking my lifespan is about half over?  Nobody would have told my Dad and Grand Fathers that they were "young"  at 30 much less 40. 

Anyways, the "no health"  doesn't mean that all the individuals were in fact healthy.  Lots of people who lead unhealthy lives don't see the doctor regularly or if ever.  I've noticed that there has been an tendency to not really elaborate on really critical details in these articles that could be useful.  The way the article is written sounds as though it's meant to spook non-elderly readers into thinking that they could have sudden strokes.  That may be the case but it would be nice to have more substantive detail than just a couple paragraphs.
I do agree the article seemed like it was written to scare younger people. Its like they heard someone had a stroke from "corona"  & went crazy.

Why don't you feel young ? 40 is pretty young still maybe 30 years ago it was looked at differently.

But now 40 is like the new 20 you can start a whole new live just make sure you throw a workout routine in there just to be safe .

But for real though 40 really isnt that old anymore. Even though it seems like half your life I see 40 year old people looking good.

shit I saw a 70 year old lyft driver in Florida, dude looked no older then 40. It was 72.

I guess thats another way to stay young forever, live in the warm & sunshine.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 23, 2020, 11:24:23 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 10:55:29 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

You know who "must go outside?"  The health care workers, who have to increase/prolong their exposure risk because some idiot governor wants to be popular and free everybody.  The health care workers don't get to choose to stay home.

I'm not sure how this will sound, but is it not part of a health care workers job to be potentially exposed to some hazards?   I certainly don't think anyone who is of sound mind who enters a health care field goes in with the perception they won't be exposed to a disease at some point.  Granted most health care works probably DO have an expectation about being provided proper PPE.
I think everyone knows that they are risking their lives already, we are just trying to limit the risk so they can continue helping people recover from covid-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 23, 2020, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 22, 2020, 04:20:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 02:53:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM
Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

It is truly baffling to me that this whole pandemic has somehow "compromised freedom". In case you hadn't heard, this virus is not unique to the US. It's affecting the entire world. Being the ultimate "free country" doesn't mean we can magically handle a novel, unprecedented pandemic in a different, more "free" way than other countries. It was an absolute must to lock down when we did. It was almost too late as it was. Give me a break with all the contrarian stuff about freedoms and liberties being infringed.

From the perspective of an outsider, I always kind of laugh when I see American's touting their freedoms.

Americans aren't really any more or less "free" than any other citizen in any other democracy.

For example.  South Korea has both a constitution and a bill or rights, and their citizens are afforded the same general liberties as any American is.

I have to agree with you as a person born in the USA. except the problem here is that the people who do claim that American's touting their freedoms are pundits who go on cable news/ralk channels and
protestors who get their info from conspiracy theorists to protest at their state capital going after Governors to protest against "The Mask Orders" and "Shelter in Place" orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 11:33:00 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 11:10:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 07:42:56 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 02:07:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:36:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)

Since when is 30s and 40s young adults?

Also, the article doesn't really go into any detail if these individuals were healthy or had conditions that might increase the risk of a stroke.  It would be one thing if trained athletes were having stroked versus someone of the same age who smokes and is overweight.
I guess since 50 is the new 30. People are living till 80-100 so that means new age groups.


Also the article says they "had no prior health history" . Idk if that means they couldn't access files or that they were health adults. However Delaware has been letting it known if the person who passed had underlying health issues.


iPhone

I don't feel like a "young adult"  at close to forty.  I noticed that's a thing these days, people will tell me that I'm still "so young."   How is the case when statistically speaking my lifespan is about half over?  Nobody would have told my Dad and Grand Fathers that they were "young"  at 30 much less 40. 

Anyways, the "no health"  doesn't mean that all the individuals were in fact healthy.  Lots of people who lead unhealthy lives don't see the doctor regularly or if ever.  I've noticed that there has been an tendency to not really elaborate on really critical details in these articles that could be useful.  The way the article is written sounds as though it's meant to spook non-elderly readers into thinking that they could have sudden strokes.  That may be the case but it would be nice to have more substantive detail than just a couple paragraphs.
I do agree the article seemed like it was written to scare younger people. Its like they heard someone had a stroke from "corona"  & went crazy.

Why don't you feel young ? 40 is pretty young still maybe 30 years ago it was looked at differently.

But now 40 is like the new 20 you can start a whole new live just make sure you throw a workout routine in there just to be safe .

But for real though 40 really isnt that old anymore. Even though it seems like half your life I see 40 year old people looking good.

shit I saw a 70 year old lyft driver in Florida, dude looked no older then 40. It was 72.

I guess thats another way to stay young forever, live in the warm & sunshine.


iPhone

Regarding workouts a lot of what I do is littered through this thread given it has been something I've had to contend with regarding virus restrictions.  Suffice to say a good Half Marathon is the typical way I start my week on Monday.

I equate being "young"  with being also inexperienced.  I've been in my career field for 19 years at this point and I'm definitely more tenured than 95% of people I interact with.  To that end from a professional stand point I'm way past the point of starting over. 

But more so, while I don't feel old I don't feel the totality of my life experiences is something who is "young"  would typically have.  I always found it disrespectful when people my age would call people like me "young man, youngster, you're young"  because it was clearly meant to convey that somehow they knew something more than me because of age.  While I don't feel the need to make the same sentiments towards others in their late teens and early twenties there is a large degree of life experience an adult does accumulate. 

I don't know, my Dad looked like a 55 year old man at my age and both my Grand Parents looked 40 by the time they graduated high school.  Maybe people are aging better or at least taking care of themselves better health wise?  I know there is a slower progression into adulthood these days but it definitely wasn't something I experienced having gotten into career work and moving across the country at 18. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 11:54:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 11:33:00 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 11:10:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 07:42:56 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 02:07:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:36:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)

Since when is 30s and 40s young adults?

Also, the article doesn't really go into any detail if these individuals were healthy or had conditions that might increase the risk of a stroke.  It would be one thing if trained athletes were having stroked versus someone of the same age who smokes and is overweight.
I guess since 50 is the new 30. People are living till 80-100 so that means new age groups.


Also the article says they "had no prior health history" . Idk if that means they couldn't access files or that they were health adults. However Delaware has been letting it known if the person who passed had underlying health issues.


iPhone

I don't feel like a "young adult"  at close to forty.  I noticed that's a thing these days, people will tell me that I'm still "so young."   How is the case when statistically speaking my lifespan is about half over?  Nobody would have told my Dad and Grand Fathers that they were "young"  at 30 much less 40. 

Anyways, the "no health"  doesn't mean that all the individuals were in fact healthy.  Lots of people who lead unhealthy lives don't see the doctor regularly or if ever.  I've noticed that there has been an tendency to not really elaborate on really critical details in these articles that could be useful.  The way the article is written sounds as though it's meant to spook non-elderly readers into thinking that they could have sudden strokes.  That may be the case but it would be nice to have more substantive detail than just a couple paragraphs.
I do agree the article seemed like it was written to scare younger people. Its like they heard someone had a stroke from "corona"  & went crazy.

Why don't you feel young ? 40 is pretty young still maybe 30 years ago it was looked at differently.

But now 40 is like the new 20 you can start a whole new live just make sure you throw a workout routine in there just to be safe .

But for real though 40 really isnt that old anymore. Even though it seems like half your life I see 40 year old people looking good.

shit I saw a 70 year old lyft driver in Florida, dude looked no older then 40. It was 72.

I guess thats another way to stay young forever, live in the warm & sunshine.


iPhone

Regarding workouts a lot of what I do is littered through this thread given it has been something I've had to contend with regarding virus restrictions.  Suffice to say a good Half Marathon is the typical way I start my week on Monday.

I equate being "young"  with being also inexperienced.  I've been in my career field for 19 years at this point and I'm definitely more tenured than 95% of people I interact with.  To that end from a professional stand point I'm way past the point of starting over. 

But more so, while I don't feel old I don't feel the totality of my life experiences is something who is "young"  would typically have.  I always found it disrespectful when people my age would call people like me "young man, youngster, you're young"  because it was clearly meant to convey that somehow they knew something more than me because of age.  While I don't feel the need to make the same sentiments towards others in their late teens and early twenties there is a large degree of life experience an adult does accumulate. 

I don't know, my Dad looked like a 55 year old man at my age and both my Grand Parents looked 40 by the time they graduated high school.  Maybe people are aging better or at least taking care of themselves better health wise?  I know there is a slower progression into adulthood these days but it definitely wasn't something I experienced having gotten into career work and moving across the country at 18.
Thats a good point, but is it better to be old with no experience? Or young with experience? I think old w/non is just a damn fool.

I notice a workout regime & healthy eating habits (who would have thought) are what keep people young & fresh.

Just because you have time in doesn't mean you're an old fart. Hit a club up you probably would have way better dance moves & the same amount of energy as a 20 year old.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on April 23, 2020, 11:54:06 AM
The drop-off in miles driven in the DC area are doing wonders for local air quality. I've seen similar reports from other metropolitan areas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/22/washington-dc-air-quality-coronavirus/

QuoteWashington has its cleanest spring air in 25 years: How air quality has improved during the coronavirus crisis

QuoteWashingtonians are breathing the cleanest spring air they have in decades, a likely side effect of orders to stay at home during the ongoing coronavirus crisis, along with favorable weather, air quality experts say.

QuoteIn the Washington region, traffic along major interstate highways has decreased by approximately 50 percent while electricity demand has dropped by about 7 percent, according to Jennifer Desimone, the air program chief with the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:05:11 PM
8 big cats at the Bronx Zoo have tested positive...

https://newsroom.wcs.org/News-Releases/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/14084/Update-Bronx-Zoo-Tigers-and-Lions-Recovering-from-COVID-19.aspx (https://newsroom.wcs.org/News-Releases/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/14084/Update-Bronx-Zoo-Tigers-and-Lions-Recovering-from-COVID-19.aspx)

...and cases have been confirmed on 26 US Navy ships.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/494188-coronavirus-cases-reported-on-26-us-navy-ships (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/494188-coronavirus-cases-reported-on-26-us-navy-ships)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:16:50 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 11:54:00 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 11:33:00 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 11:10:31 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 07:42:56 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on April 23, 2020, 02:07:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 12:36:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 12:25:17 AM
Apparently, this shit is causing strokes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html)

Since when is 30s and 40s young adults?

Also, the article doesn't really go into any detail if these individuals were healthy or had conditions that might increase the risk of a stroke.  It would be one thing if trained athletes were having stroked versus someone of the same age who smokes and is overweight.
I guess since 50 is the new 30. People are living till 80-100 so that means new age groups.


Also the article says they "had no prior health history" . Idk if that means they couldn't access files or that they were health adults. However Delaware has been letting it known if the person who passed had underlying health issues.


iPhone

I don't feel like a "young adult"  at close to forty.  I noticed that's a thing these days, people will tell me that I'm still "so young."   How is the case when statistically speaking my lifespan is about half over?  Nobody would have told my Dad and Grand Fathers that they were "young"  at 30 much less 40. 

Anyways, the "no health"  doesn't mean that all the individuals were in fact healthy.  Lots of people who lead unhealthy lives don't see the doctor regularly or if ever.  I've noticed that there has been an tendency to not really elaborate on really critical details in these articles that could be useful.  The way the article is written sounds as though it's meant to spook non-elderly readers into thinking that they could have sudden strokes.  That may be the case but it would be nice to have more substantive detail than just a couple paragraphs.
I do agree the article seemed like it was written to scare younger people. Its like they heard someone had a stroke from "corona"  & went crazy.

Why don't you feel young ? 40 is pretty young still maybe 30 years ago it was looked at differently.

But now 40 is like the new 20 you can start a whole new live just make sure you throw a workout routine in there just to be safe .

But for real though 40 really isnt that old anymore. Even though it seems like half your life I see 40 year old people looking good.

shit I saw a 70 year old lyft driver in Florida, dude looked no older then 40. It was 72.

I guess thats another way to stay young forever, live in the warm & sunshine.


iPhone

Regarding workouts a lot of what I do is littered through this thread given it has been something I've had to contend with regarding virus restrictions.  Suffice to say a good Half Marathon is the typical way I start my week on Monday.

I equate being "young"  with being also inexperienced.  I've been in my career field for 19 years at this point and I'm definitely more tenured than 95% of people I interact with.  To that end from a professional stand point I'm way past the point of starting over. 

But more so, while I don't feel old I don't feel the totality of my life experiences is something who is "young"  would typically have.  I always found it disrespectful when people my age would call people like me "young man, youngster, you're young"  because it was clearly meant to convey that somehow they knew something more than me because of age.  While I don't feel the need to make the same sentiments towards others in their late teens and early twenties there is a large degree of life experience an adult does accumulate. 

I don't know, my Dad looked like a 55 year old man at my age and both my Grand Parents looked 40 by the time they graduated high school.  Maybe people are aging better or at least taking care of themselves better health wise?  I know there is a slower progression into adulthood these days but it definitely wasn't something I experienced having gotten into career work and moving across the country at 18.
Thats a good point, but is it better to be old with no experience? Or young with experience? I think old w/non is just a damn fool.

I notice a workout regime & healthy eating habits (who would have thought) are what keep people young & fresh.

Just because you have time in doesn't mean you're an old fart. Hit a club up you probably would have way better dance moves & the same amount of energy as a 20 year old.


iPhone

I tend to lean towards have knowledge and experience are the best things accumulate in life regardless of age.

Ironically I had relearn how to dance for my wedding in the next too recent past.  My wife likes to dance and I had completely forgotten how to.  But to that end, yes I would agree having an active lifestyle does seem to have an affect on the process of aging.  My grandparents were worn down by hard lives that were common around the World War II era.  Baby Boomers weren't exactly known for physical activity not having a healthy diet.  My Dad had totally grey hair at 30, I just have some in beard which was there when I was 23. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 23, 2020, 12:38:33 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 23, 2020, 10:51:29 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:43:44 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 23, 2020, 09:16:11 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  They've all been just fine both during and after British rule.

Those weren't wars. There are some good examples of independence via war, but not those three.


That's my point, which I didn't articulate clearly enough.

Those three countries are examples of how countries formerly under British rule became independent anyway without the need of a war.  Their citizens were fine under British rule and are fine now.  The British weren't the tyrants that history sometimes paints them to be.
The British were tyrants, just not to English speakers. Look up the Bengal famine or the Irish potato famine. I do understand your point though.

Then you really have to dial down on your praise of US to account for Americans being tyrant, just not to their own. Slavery and banana republics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 23, 2020, 12:42:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 10:55:29 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

You know who "must go outside?"  The health care workers, who have to increase/prolong their exposure risk because some idiot governor wants to be popular and free everybody.  The health care workers don't get to choose to stay home.

I'm not sure how this will sound, but is it not part of a health care workers job to be potentially exposed to some hazards?   I certainly don't think anyone who is of sound mind who enters a health care field goes in with the perception they won't be exposed to a disease at some point.  Granted most health care works probably DO have an expectation about being provided proper PPE.
One thing is to take a risk, and the other thing is to increase the risk beyond required. Proper PPE is only that good: N95 stopping 95% of particles means 5% still go through.  Looks like a lot of medical professionals getting sick from this virus - not to mention working beyond any reasonable schedule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 23, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Re: Secession

If California decides to secede, I hope the rest of the country doesn't take up arms to force them to stay if they don't want to. The Civil War didn't need to happen.

Re: Cats being tested

It's hard enough to give a cat a pill or a dropper full of medicine (I have the scratches to prove it). I can't imagine trying to stick a Q-tip up a cat's tiny nostrils (assuming they test felines the same way they test humans).

Re: Rallies

It's absolutely untrue to claim with 100 percent certainty that if you participate in a protest or other gathering, you are definitely spreading or contributing to the spread of the virus. That's just another scare tactic, fostered by leaders (governors) who don't like their authority being questioned or sheeple who believe everything the government says and go along with the "we know best; it's for your own good" argument when people are having trouble paying their bills, buying food, etc. I saw something yesterday from a Kentuckian who has not been able to successfully apply for unemployment due to the system being overwhelmed, and they're running out of food. The simple solution to solve that is to let her and her husband go back to work, and anyone who wants to stay in after things open back up are welcome to do so.

The whole idea of the lockdown was to "flatten the curve" to avoid overwhelming the health care system. Yet for 98 percent of the country (New York and environs being the glaring exception), not only did the health care system NOT become overwhelmed, but hospitals are mostly empty and staff members are being furloughed or laid off. In Kentucky, they've built two temporary hospitals (the fairgrounds in Louisville and the UK football practice facility in Lexington) and neither will be used because there's so much capacity in existing hospitals. So now, "overwhelming the health care system" is not a valid reason for continuing the forced closures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 23, 2020, 12:48:05 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 23, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Re: Secession

If California decides to secede, I hope the rest of the country doesn't take up arms to force them to stay if they don't want to. The Civil War didn't need to happen.

Re: Cats being tested

It's hard enough to give a cat a pill or a dropper full of medicine (I have the scratches to prove it). I can't imagine trying to stick a Q-tip up a cat's tiny nostrils (assuming they test felines the same way they test humans).

Re: Rallies

It's absolutely untrue to claim with 100 percent certainty that if you participate in a protest or other gathering, you are definitely spreading or contributing to the spread of the virus. That's just another scare tactic, fostered by leaders (governors) who don't like their authority being questioned or sheeple who believe everything the government says and go along with the "we know best; it's for your own good" argument when people are having trouble paying their bills, buying food, etc. I saw something yesterday from a Kentuckian who has not been able to successfully apply for unemployment due to the system being overwhelmed, and they're running out of food. The simple solution to solve that is to let her and her husband go back to work, and anyone who wants to stay in after things open back up are welcome to do so.

The whole idea of the lockdown was to "flatten the curve" to avoid overwhelming the health care system. Yet for 98 percent of the country (New York and environs being the glaring exception), not only did the health care system NOT become overwhelmed, but hospitals are mostly empty and staff members are being furloughed or laid off. In Kentucky, they've built two temporary hospitals (the fairgrounds in Louisville and the UK football practice facility in Lexington) and neither will be used because there's so much capacity in existing hospitals. So now, "overwhelming the health care system" is not a valid reason for continuing the forced closures.

Participating in the protests is not contributing to the spread of the virus directly, but if the protests succeed in achieving their goal, that is what will contribute to the spread of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 23, 2020, 12:49:54 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

So what happens if the lockdown is lifted, and your boss says, "Come back to work, or you're fired."  What choice do you have about staying inside then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 01:11:52 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 23, 2020, 10:29:34 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 22, 2020, 08:39:45 PM
America is special because of the basis on which it was founded, and the way it has been uniquely prospered as a nation in the years since.
Sorry, but what is special about how the United States was founded?  Revolts against distant rule have happened for time eternal.  The continue to happen.  And will happen well into the future.
...
Don't get me wrong.  It's worked out just fine.  But a more critical understanding of history would see that it wasn't some unique revolution.

It was the first major country not ruled by a king or queen and founded on the basis of freedom, equality, and justice.


Well unless you were a slave.  Or a woman. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 01:14:10 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 12:48:05 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 23, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Re: Secession

If California decides to secede, I hope the rest of the country doesn't take up arms to force them to stay if they don't want to. The Civil War didn't need to happen.

Re: Cats being tested

It's hard enough to give a cat a pill or a dropper full of medicine (I have the scratches to prove it). I can't imagine trying to stick a Q-tip up a cat's tiny nostrils (assuming they test felines the same way they test humans).

Re: Rallies

It's absolutely untrue to claim with 100 percent certainty that if you participate in a protest or other gathering, you are definitely spreading or contributing to the spread of the virus. That's just another scare tactic, fostered by leaders (governors) who don't like their authority being questioned or sheeple who believe everything the government says and go along with the "we know best; it's for your own good" argument when people are having trouble paying their bills, buying food, etc. I saw something yesterday from a Kentuckian who has not been able to successfully apply for unemployment due to the system being overwhelmed, and they're running out of food. The simple solution to solve that is to let her and her husband go back to work, and anyone who wants to stay in after things open back up are welcome to do so.

The whole idea of the lockdown was to "flatten the curve" to avoid overwhelming the health care system. Yet for 98 percent of the country (New York and environs being the glaring exception), not only did the health care system NOT become overwhelmed, but hospitals are mostly empty and staff members are being furloughed or laid off. In Kentucky, they've built two temporary hospitals (the fairgrounds in Louisville and the UK football practice facility in Lexington) and neither will be used because there's so much capacity in existing hospitals. So now, "overwhelming the health care system" is not a valid reason for continuing the forced closures.

Participating in the protests is not contributing to the spread of the virus directly, but if the protests succeed in achieving their goal, that is what will contribute to the spread of the virus.


And it *may* be contributing to the spread of the virus directly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 01:14:19 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 23, 2020, 12:48:05 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 23, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Re: Secession

If California decides to secede, I hope the rest of the country doesn't take up arms to force them to stay if they don't want to. The Civil War didn't need to happen.

Re: Cats being tested

It's hard enough to give a cat a pill or a dropper full of medicine (I have the scratches to prove it). I can't imagine trying to stick a Q-tip up a cat's tiny nostrils (assuming they test felines the same way they test humans).

Re: Rallies

It's absolutely untrue to claim with 100 percent certainty that if you participate in a protest or other gathering, you are definitely spreading or contributing to the spread of the virus. That's just another scare tactic, fostered by leaders (governors) who don't like their authority being questioned or sheeple who believe everything the government says and go along with the "we know best; it's for your own good" argument when people are having trouble paying their bills, buying food, etc. I saw something yesterday from a Kentuckian who has not been able to successfully apply for unemployment due to the system being overwhelmed, and they're running out of food. The simple solution to solve that is to let her and her husband go back to work, and anyone who wants to stay in after things open back up are welcome to do so.

The whole idea of the lockdown was to "flatten the curve" to avoid overwhelming the health care system. Yet for 98 percent of the country (New York and environs being the glaring exception), not only did the health care system NOT become overwhelmed, but hospitals are mostly empty and staff members are being furloughed or laid off. In Kentucky, they've built two temporary hospitals (the fairgrounds in Louisville and the UK football practice facility in Lexington) and neither will be used because there's so much capacity in existing hospitals. So now, "overwhelming the health care system" is not a valid reason for continuing the forced closures.

Participating in the protests is not contributing to the spread of the virus directly, but if the protests succeed in achieving their goal, that is what will contribute to the spread of the virus.

I had a thought about the protests.  If you're adhering to social distancing by staying in a car or in some other fashion during a protest then aren't you sending a contradictory message?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on April 23, 2020, 01:36:38 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 23, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Re: Rallies

It's absolutely untrue to claim with 100 percent certainty that if you participate in a protest or other gathering, you are definitely spreading or contributing to the spread of the virus. That's just another scare tactic, fostered by leaders (governors) who don't like their authority being questioned or sheeple who believe everything the government says and go along with the "we know best; it's for your own good" argument when people are having trouble paying their bills, buying food, etc. I saw something yesterday from a Kentuckian who has not been able to successfully apply for unemployment due to the system being overwhelmed, and they're running out of food. The simple solution to solve that is to let her and her husband go back to work, and anyone who wants to stay in after things open back up are welcome to do so.

The whole idea of the lockdown was to "flatten the curve" to avoid overwhelming the health care system. Yet for 98 percent of the country (New York and environs being the glaring exception), not only did the health care system NOT become overwhelmed, but hospitals are mostly empty and staff members are being furloughed or laid off. In Kentucky, they've built two temporary hospitals (the fairgrounds in Louisville and the UK football practice facility in Lexington) and neither will be used because there's so much capacity in existing hospitals. So now, "overwhelming the health care system" is not a valid reason for continuing the forced closures.

I don't think it's a scare tactic.

I'm sure the governors don't like the fact that their authority is being question -- it's only human not to like something like that.

I think the reason governors are upset is because the individual actions of the people (or perhaps conservative radio sheeple) participating in the protests has the potential to significantly impact the community at large.  That's the issue.

The actions of the protesters may not lead to a significant increase in the spread of the virus -- but also it could lead to the spread.  And if it does, everyone loses because of their actions.  Everyone.

I'm honestly not sure if any government is taking the right course of action to mitigate the spread of the virus.  And if you had have asked me six weeks ago, I'd have thought the situation would be worse than it is by now than it has turned out to be.

Personally, I am somewhat sympathetic to the cause of the protesters -- certainly I'm eager for normal life to resume as well -- but pretending that their actions is somehow completely and totally righteous completely ignores a set of facts.  Facts that are decidedly not irrelevant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 23, 2020, 01:37:44 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 23, 2020, 12:38:33 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 23, 2020, 10:51:29 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:43:44 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 23, 2020, 09:16:11 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 09:09:56 AM
Look at Canada, Australia and New Zealand.  They've all been just fine both during and after British rule.

Those weren't wars. There are some good examples of independence via war, but not those three.


That's my point, which I didn't articulate clearly enough.

Those three countries are examples of how countries formerly under British rule became independent anyway without the need of a war.  Their citizens were fine under British rule and are fine now.  The British weren't the tyrants that history sometimes paints them to be.
The British were tyrants, just not to English speakers. Look up the Bengal famine or the Irish potato famine. I do understand your point though.

Then you really have to dial down on your praise of US to account for Americans being tyrant, just not to their own. Slavery and banana republics.
I never said that the American's weren't tyrants, they definitely were.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/23/2-7-million-new-yorkers-may-have-been-exposed-to-coronavirus-study/amp/

About 20 percent of New Yorkers could have the virus...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 02:13:38 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 23, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Re: Secession

If California decides to secede, I hope the rest of the country doesn't take up arms to force them to stay if they don't want to. The Civil War didn't need to happen.

California couldn't secede if it wanted to. See Texas v. White (1869).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:27:27 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/23/2-7-million-new-yorkers-may-have-been-exposed-to-coronavirus-study/amp/

About 20 percent of New Yorkers could have the virus...

Assuming that's accurate...

On some levels that is good.  It shows that many people who get the disease are asymptomatic.

The bad news is that, even with all of that death, we are nowhere near herd immunity even in the hardest hit part of the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 02:13:38 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 23, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Re: Secession

If California decides to secede, I hope the rest of the country doesn't take up arms to force them to stay if they don't want to. The Civil War didn't need to happen.

California couldn't secede if it wanted to. See Texas v. White (1869).

Not to mention the logistics involved with water rights would pretty much make it a non-starter.  If something like that was going to happen it needed to before the big public works projects of the early 20th Century. 

Despite what you all might hear reported in other states there really isn't any kind of will power here to move towards making California it's own country.  Look to other examples like how close Quebec has come at times from splitting away from Canada as a closer analog to how something like that would work in reality.

Granted, Gavin Newsom using the term "Nation State"  fairly recently was probably ill advised.  That jab was made after repeated calls here locally for aid and disaster relief that didn't get heeded in the early going of Virus-Gate.     
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:54:56 PM
Meanwhile in Tennessee hubris is afoot: 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/brothers-hoarded-17-700-hand-122640360.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 23, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
Not to mention the logistics involved with water rights would pretty much make it a non-starter.  If something like that was going to happen it needed to before the big public works projects of the early 20th Century. 

Despite what you all might hear reported in other states there really isn't any kind of will power here to move towards making California it's own country.  Look to other examples like how close Quebec has come at times from splitting away from Canada as a closer analog to how something like that would work in reality.

IIRC, when Quebec came closest to voting for secession, Canada's federal government issued dark reminders just before the vote that secession can be a two-way street, and that the First Nations that control a lot of Quebec's hydropower resources might leave Quebec to stay with Canada.

In a similar "West Virginia" scenario, California's redder regions might be encouraged to remain with the Union, and take much of California's water supply with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 23, 2020, 03:38:22 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 23, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
Not to mention the logistics involved with water rights would pretty much make it a non-starter.  If something like that was going to happen it needed to before the big public works projects of the early 20th Century. 

Despite what you all might hear reported in other states there really isn't any kind of will power here to move towards making California it's own country.  Look to other examples like how close Quebec has come at times from splitting away from Canada as a closer analog to how something like that would work in reality.

IIRC, when Quebec came closest to voting for secession, Canada's federal government issued dark reminders just before the vote that secession can be a two-way street, and that the First Nations that control a lot of Quebec's hydropower resources might leave Quebec to stay with Canada.

In a similar "West Virginia" scenario, California's redder regions might be encouraged to remain with the Union, and take much of California's water supply with them.
I give the chance of California seceding at about 0.01%
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 23, 2020, 03:48:03 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 23, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
Not to mention the logistics involved with water rights would pretty much make it a non-starter.  If something like that was going to happen it needed to before the big public works projects of the early 20th Century. 

Despite what you all might hear reported in other states there really isn't any kind of will power here to move towards making California it's own country.  Look to other examples like how close Quebec has come at times from splitting away from Canada as a closer analog to how something like that would work in reality.

IIRC, when Quebec came closest to voting for secession, Canada's federal government issued dark reminders just before the vote that secession can be a two-way street, and that the First Nations that control a lot of Quebec's hydropower resources might leave Quebec to stay with Canada.

In a similar "West Virginia" scenario, California's redder regions might be encouraged to remain with the Union, and take much of California's water supply with them.

Any coastal state trying to leave the union is going to have trouble for those same reasons (all are politically split, although west coast "reds" seem slightly more purple when compared to the midwest or south). Washington and British Columbia have several of North America's busiest ports. For Canada to lose BC, or the US to lose WA (never mind Oregon or California) would be disastrous because of the sheer amount of product that is processed at those ports. In terms of power supply, I think it's simply a matter of whether these new countries could promise them good benefits. After all, staying in the US would still mean sharing power and water with the rest of the US.

IMO, any coastal state (east or west) trying to secede would have some merits, particularly if it sends more taxes out than it takes in. States like WA, NJ, and MA do well in this regard, as does CA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 23, 2020, 03:53:18 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:27:27 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/23/2-7-million-new-yorkers-may-have-been-exposed-to-coronavirus-study/amp/

About 20 percent of New Yorkers could have the virus...

Assuming that's accurate...

On some levels that is good.  It shows that many people who get the disease are asymptomatic.

The bad news is that, even with all of that death, we are nowhere near herd immunity even in the hardest hit part of the country.
At least part of that test was upstate, where official hit rate is about 1 in 1000
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 23, 2020, 04:24:25 PM
Some of you talk wistfully of California leaving "your country." But down south, white folk want Texas to leave the union.
https://www.texastribune.org/2016/06/24/can-texas-legally-secede-united-states/
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/the-secessionist/600739/
https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texas-secessionists-2019/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 04:40:41 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 23, 2020, 03:48:03 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 23, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
Not to mention the logistics involved with water rights would pretty much make it a non-starter.  If something like that was going to happen it needed to before the big public works projects of the early 20th Century. 

Despite what you all might hear reported in other states there really isn't any kind of will power here to move towards making California it's own country.  Look to other examples like how close Quebec has come at times from splitting away from Canada as a closer analog to how something like that would work in reality.

IIRC, when Quebec came closest to voting for secession, Canada's federal government issued dark reminders just before the vote that secession can be a two-way street, and that the First Nations that control a lot of Quebec's hydropower resources might leave Quebec to stay with Canada.

In a similar "West Virginia" scenario, California's redder regions might be encouraged to remain with the Union, and take much of California's water supply with them.

Any coastal state trying to leave the union is going to have trouble for those same reasons (all are politically split, although west coast "reds" seem slightly more purple when compared to the midwest or south). Washington and British Columbia have several of North America's busiest ports. For Canada to lose BC, or the US to lose WA (never mind Oregon or California) would be disastrous because of the sheer amount of product that is processed at those ports. In terms of power supply, I think it's simply a matter of whether these new countries could promise them good benefits. After all, staying in the US would still mean sharing power and water with the rest of the US.

IMO, any coastal state (east or west) trying to secede would have some merits, particularly if it sends more taxes out than it takes in. States like WA, NJ, and MA do well in this regard, as does CA.

San Joaquin Valley and Owens Valley are as red as they come I've found.   Even the Mojave Desert regions aside from Owens Valley tend to not follow the blue side of things you see in the coastal areas.  Considering that divide stretches onto both sides of the Sierras getting anyone to get on anything in California is hard and in the case of leaving the Union near impossible. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 05:14:51 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 23, 2020, 08:04:53 AM
NC governor is announcing a reopening plan today.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/governor-cooper-expected-to-announce-reopening-plan-thursday-afternoon/19067407/ (https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/governor-cooper-expected-to-announce-reopening-plan-thursday-afternoon/19067407/)

Here's the plan, which includes extending the stay-at-home order to May 8.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-may-8-plans-three-phase-lifting-restrictions-based (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-may-8-plans-three-phase-lifting-restrictions-based)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 23, 2020, 05:19:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 23, 2020, 03:53:18 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:27:27 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/23/2-7-million-new-yorkers-may-have-been-exposed-to-coronavirus-study/amp/

About 20 percent of New Yorkers could have the virus...

Assuming that's accurate...

On some levels that is good.  It shows that many people who get the disease are asymptomatic.

The bad news is that, even with all of that death, we are nowhere near herd immunity even in the hardest hit part of the country.
At least part of that test was upstate, where official hit rate is about 1 in 1000
OK, a bit more details:
New York City accounted for the highest percentage of those tested with the antibodies at 21.2 percent, according to statistics compiled by the governor's office. Long Island is the second highest at 16.7 percent. Across upstate, the study indicated that 3.6 percent of the population are carrying the antibodies
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 23, 2020, 06:05:20 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

I'm still employed (and getting paid) but my day job is closed for business. If the lockdown ends, and my boss says "You must go back to work", I can choose to either go to work and catch something from one of our disgusting customers, or become unemployed. I'd rather us have a lockdown in place so that I can stay safe.

The real tyranny in the United States emanates from the private sector, not the government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 23, 2020, 06:10:33 PM
They keep saying Ohio is lifting its martial law lockdown on May 1 (though some limits on businesses will continue). I'll believe it when I see it.

At this point, however, is there any state that makes these orders anything more than a secondary offense? Pretty soon, people are going to stop taking it seriously.

The moment May 1 hits, I'm gonna go to Ohio and bubble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 23, 2020, 06:17:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 04:40:41 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 23, 2020, 03:48:03 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 23, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
Not to mention the logistics involved with water rights would pretty much make it a non-starter.  If something like that was going to happen it needed to before the big public works projects of the early 20th Century. 

Despite what you all might hear reported in other states there really isn't any kind of will power here to move towards making California it's own country.  Look to other examples like how close Quebec has come at times from splitting away from Canada as a closer analog to how something like that would work in reality.

IIRC, when Quebec came closest to voting for secession, Canada's federal government issued dark reminders just before the vote that secession can be a two-way street, and that the First Nations that control a lot of Quebec's hydropower resources might leave Quebec to stay with Canada.

In a similar "West Virginia" scenario, California's redder regions might be encouraged to remain with the Union, and take much of California's water supply with them.

Any coastal state trying to leave the union is going to have trouble for those same reasons (all are politically split, although west coast "reds" seem slightly more purple when compared to the midwest or south). Washington and British Columbia have several of North America's busiest ports. For Canada to lose BC, or the US to lose WA (never mind Oregon or California) would be disastrous because of the sheer amount of product that is processed at those ports. In terms of power supply, I think it's simply a matter of whether these new countries could promise them good benefits. After all, staying in the US would still mean sharing power and water with the rest of the US.

IMO, any coastal state (east or west) trying to secede would have some merits, particularly if it sends more taxes out than it takes in. States like WA, NJ, and MA do well in this regard, as does CA.

San Joaquin Valley and Owens Valley are as red as they come I've found.   Even the Mojave Desert regions aside from Owens Valley tend to not follow the blue side of things you see in the coastal areas.  Considering that divide stretches onto both sides of the Sierras getting anyone to get on anything in California is hard and in the case of leaving the Union near impossible.

I guess that may be. I've always felt like there was a divide amongst those on the right geographically, much like how there is a divide amongst the left geographically. WA tends to vote more conservative locally (relative to our streak as a left stronghold nationally), but only because our local conservative politicians are more left of national conservatives. For example, they oppose toll roads because they consider it unfair to low-income households...that's definitely not a national opinion.

I bring this slightly-political topic up because when we talk about secession, we have to consider how local lefts or local rights might actually appreciate a separation from national parties. This is common in other countries (BC's Liberal Party is centre-right, compared to Canada's national Liberal Party which is centre-left), but not so much in the US. Conservatives in the San Joaquin Valley could develop a new party in a separate California; I highly doubt they have that strong of a devotion to national parties (I wouldn't consider voting for a national party as being a commitment to fight for them in a war on California).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 06:45:07 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 22, 2020, 05:10:28 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on April 22, 2020, 10:55:27 AM
The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 22, 2020, 09:15:45 AM
A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html
This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.
OK, you can remove Nevada and South Carolina from that list now.
And now Minnesota, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. Also, add Nebraska
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 23, 2020, 07:38:20 PM
There's been a lot of talk about how California developed herd immunity to the virus earlier this winter.  To that point recent autopsy results have revealed that two Californians died of coronavirus in early and mid-February -- three weeks before the previously known first US death from the virus.  I think most people assume that if the virus showed up in California early this winter that there must have been a silent outbreak that infected millions of Californians.  But it appears the virus just isn't as contagious along the West Coast (for whatever reason) than it is in the rest of the country. 

What I don't understand is this fascination with contact tracing especially given the data coming out of NYC (where it's estimated 21% of the city has virus antibodies).  This is a highly contagious virus, at least in parts of the country, and with so many people being asymptomatic, contact tracing is going to be largely ineffective.  Singapore attempted to contact trace and quarantine all their cases (and they had fewer than 100 cases to track compared to the US which has over 800k cases).  They were able to delay the spike by a few weeks in Singapore but now the daily number of COVID cases are skyrocketing.  How do you contact trace cases where the individual spreading the virus is asymptomatic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on April 23, 2020, 09:11:12 PM
I think there are a couple of things to note.

I have read that some doctors have some concern about the accuracy of the antibody tests.  I have read some articles that suggest that the tests to not search for enough proteins to really understand if a person has had the disease.  Obviously I'm not sure though, and it would be wonderful if indeed the disease is more prevalent, and therefore less severe than originally thought.

The numbers of cases in California, even if the antibody tests are accurate, are not indicative of herd immunity.  It is however indicative that the hospitalization rate of the disease would be lower than first thought.

Contract tracing was used extensively to stop the spread of SARS, as well as MERS.  It's a powerful containment method.  Obviously if as many as one in five people in a given geographic area has had the disease it's probably impracticable to contract trace on such a large scale.  If the outbreak is of a smaller scale, then contract tracing makes a lot more sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 24, 2020, 08:08:24 AM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 23, 2020, 09:11:12 PM
....

Contract tracing was used extensively to stop the spread of SARS, as well as MERS.  It's a powerful containment method.  Obviously if as many as one in five people in a given geographic area has had the disease it's probably impracticable to contract trace on such a large scale.  If the outbreak is of a smaller scale, then contract tracing makes a lot more sense.

I read on another site that one of the things they want to do for contract tracing is to call people. That doesn't seem particularly effective in today's world where most of us don't answer calls from unknown numbers. I know they can use cell-site location information as well, though that's imperfect and has been the subject of a lot of litigation in other contexts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
Two pieces of misinformation on this thread:

No state has issued actual martial law - these shelter-in-place and stay home orders fall short of actual martial law.

No area in the US is anywhere near herd immunity.  Herd immunity means that a large majority has already been infected and/or vaccinated...the lowest estimate I've seen noted is 60%...and it is not a magic specific number; each virus has it's own characteristics.  The most optimistic estimate I've seen is the above NYC study that estimates 21% in the dense, urban NYC area, has been infected.  So if that is accurate, and if we can extrapolate that across the entire US (both suspect), we need 3x more infections before we maybe start to achieve herd immunity.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 24, 2020, 08:23:46 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
Two pieces of misinformation on this thread:

No state has issued actual martial law - these shelter-in-place and stay home orders fall short of actual martial law.

....

The person who keeps using that term knows it's not martial law but doesn't care. He's prone to hyperbole (witness some of the very strange threads he's posted) and uses that term deliberately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on April 24, 2020, 08:55:30 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 23, 2020, 03:38:22 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 23, 2020, 03:24:28 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
Not to mention the logistics involved with water rights would pretty much make it a non-starter.  If something like that was going to happen it needed to before the big public works projects of the early 20th Century. 

Despite what you all might hear reported in other states there really isn't any kind of will power here to move towards making California it's own country.  Look to other examples like how close Quebec has come at times from splitting away from Canada as a closer analog to how something like that would work in reality.

IIRC, when Quebec came closest to voting for secession, Canada's federal government issued dark reminders just before the vote that secession can be a two-way street, and that the First Nations that control a lot of Quebec's hydropower resources might leave Quebec to stay with Canada.

In a similar "West Virginia" scenario, California's redder regions might be encouraged to remain with the Union, and take much of California's water supply with them.
I give the chance of California seceding at about 0.01%

I agree, and I give Texas the same percentage chance.

Perhaps Some of you should troll on freerepublic.com with this secession/are the protestors' motives pure debate. :)

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:36:38 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency.
Reagan was different, he was governor of California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:43:24 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:36:38 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency.
Reagan was different, he was governor of California.

Yes, but there has been a lot of celebrity governors and Reagan was one of them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 24, 2020, 12:01:40 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 23, 2020, 09:11:12 PMContract tracing was used extensively to stop the spread of SARS, as well as MERS.  It's a powerful containment method.  Obviously if as many as one in five people in a given geographic area has had the disease it's probably impracticable to contract trace on such a large scale.  If the outbreak is of a smaller scale, then contract tracing makes a lot more sense.

Quote from: 1995hoo on April 24, 2020, 08:08:24 AMI read on another site that one of the things they want to do for contract tracing is to call people. That doesn't seem particularly effective in today's world where most of us don't answer calls from unknown numbers. I know they can use cell-site location information as well, though that's imperfect and has been the subject of a lot of litigation in other contexts.

The approach to contact tracing I have seen discussed has basically two elements:

*  Old-fashioned in-person contact, but at scale--in the US 300,000 people would be doing this work (equivalent to 0.1% of the population)

*  Cellphones collecting encrypted keys from other cellphones in the immediate vicinity and later comparing them against a distributed database to see if any of the keys are associated with a phone belonging to someone who has tested positive (eliminates the need for GPS tracking or cellphone tower triangulation; won't necessarily help people who don't carry their phones with them everywhere they go, and has potential to generate needless alerts in situations where virus spread is basically impossible, such as when two phones are on either side of a wall)

The use of cellphone apps in South Korea conferred a significant automation benefit to contact tracing and is considered a key part of the reason the country has succeeded in keeping a lid on COVID-19 without having had to resort to a countrywide lockdown.  There are definite privacy concerns, and it has to be noted that South Korea has a long history of being among the more authoritarian countries in the free world.  This is part of the reason Apple and Google have been working on solutions that rely on distributed key storage.  South Korea also had the advantage, which we denied to ourselves, of having early on ramped up production of test kits at a time when tests were expensive and unreliable but the case count was small enough that the virus could be smothered by aggressive testing and contact tracing.

With asymptomatic spread, it is inevitable that contact tracing will be leaky.  But the real goal here is to keep the basic reproduction number below unity without having to incur the disruption and economic cost of continued lockdown.  Leaky methods can work as part of the total solution as long as the leakage is low enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 24, 2020, 12:17:37 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:43:24 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:36:38 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency.
Reagan was different, he was governor of California.

Yes, but there has been a lot of celebrity governors and Reagan was one of them. 

How many had the IQ of a turnip?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 24, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency. 


Yes there were many people who mocked him because of his acting background and questioned his intelligence.  But I do think there were a couple of differences.

Reagan's acting days were pretty long behind him.  He had been a politcal leader and a governor for some time.  Also, while I didn't like his policies, he was clearly a leader.  He was by and large consistent with his messaging and tried to (mostly) unite people instead of divide them.  He was also an eternal optimist. 

Politics is so different now than it was then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 24, 2020, 12:32:41 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 24, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency. 


Yes there were many people who mocked him because of his acting background and questioned his intelligence.  But I do think there were a couple of differences.

Reagan's acting days were pretty long behind him.  He had been a politcal leader and a governor for some time.  Also, while I didn't like his policies, he was clearly a leader.  He was by and large consistent with his messaging and tried to (mostly) unite people instead of divide them.  He was also an eternal optimist. 

Politics is so different now than it was then.

yes and no.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 01:26:46 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 24, 2020, 12:32:41 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 24, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency. 


Yes there were many people who mocked him because of his acting background and questioned his intelligence.  But I do think there were a couple of differences.

Reagan's acting days were pretty long behind him.  He had been a politcal leader and a governor for some time.  Also, while I didn't like his policies, he was clearly a leader.  He was by and large consistent with his messaging and tried to (mostly) unite people instead of divide them.  He was also an eternal optimist. 

Politics is so different now than it was then.

yes and no.

I don't know, this whole people having two opposing polarizing political views deal has been around as long as I can remember.  It has always felt to me like one third of people hold an extreme left view, one third extreme right, and everyone else either is in the middle or doesn't care. 

Regarding Reagan, I was just curious as to what people of the time thought of him.  I'm not insinuating an opinion myself one way or the other.  I do agree that the body of work in politics was definitely long established by the time he became president.  To that end, who's seen movies with Ronald Reagan in them?  I've seen probably at least 10 but I tend be something of a movie buff. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 24, 2020, 01:32:06 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 01:26:46 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 24, 2020, 12:32:41 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 24, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494473-trump-remarks-on-injecting-disinfectants-draw-blowback-from-doctors)

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/b13099e815d9f1977820ae4c30d062e2/tenor.gif?itemid=12371798)
That's what you get when we elect a reality tv star as president.

I'm curious were people saying the same thing when Ronald Reagan was in office?  I was too young really remember what any of the adults remember regarding Reagan being an actor aside from the quip in the first Back to the Future movie.  Granted, Reagan had an actual lengthy body of works in politics leading up to his presidency. 


Yes there were many people who mocked him because of his acting background and questioned his intelligence.  But I do think there were a couple of differences.

Reagan's acting days were pretty long behind him.  He had been a politcal leader and a governor for some time.  Also, while I didn't like his policies, he was clearly a leader.  He was by and large consistent with his messaging and tried to (mostly) unite people instead of divide them.  He was also an eternal optimist. 

Politics is so different now than it was then.

yes and no.

I don't know, this whole people having two opposing polarizing political views deal has been around as long as I can remember.  It has always felt to me like one third of people hold an extreme left view, one third extreme right, and everyone else either is in the middle or doesn't care. 

Regarding Reagan, I was just curious as to what people of the time thought of him.  I'm not insinuating an opinion myself one way or the other.  I do agree that the body of work in politics was definitely long established by the time he became president.  To that end, who's seen movies with Ronald Reagan in them?  I've seen probably at least 10 but I tend be something of a movie buff. 

Washington Post did a good job of putting a visual to how much more polarized Congress has become. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/04/23/a-stunning-visualization-of-our-divided-congress/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 24, 2020, 02:09:14 PM
Quote from: GaryV on April 23, 2020, 12:49:54 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 23, 2020, 08:50:18 AM
Quote from: Revive 755 on April 22, 2020, 10:15:29 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 21, 2020, 10:40:40 PMEnding lockdowns now will create a spike in the number of cases, which you would have to have your head buried pretty deep in the sand not to understand.

Considering the number of cases still turning up even with the lockdowns being in place for a month now. . .

Nothing says you cannot stay in on your own.

Too true. If you live in an area where lockdowns are being relaxed, but you object to it and are still concerned that you might contract Coronavirus, just keep staying inside. When lockdowns are added, they're saying "everybody must stay inside". But when lockdowns are removed, they're NOT saying "everybody must go outside". I have a feeling that even in those areas, much of the lockdown will continue, but it'll be self-enforced.

So what happens if the lockdown is lifted, and your boss says, "Come back to work, or you're fired."  What choice do you have about staying inside then?


My understanding of the federal relief legislation is that if an employee wishes to stay home for fear of contracting the virus, they can do so without penalty.

Regarding contact tracing: Why is that a thing now? I thought that the virus was now classified as "community spread" and contact tracing was no longer necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 24, 2020, 02:30:06 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 01:26:46 PMI don't know, this whole people having two opposing polarizing political views deal has been around as long as I can remember.  It has always felt to me like one third of people hold an extreme left view, one third extreme right, and everyone else either is in the middle or doesn't care.

I am old enough to remember the 1980's, when the parties functioned as ideologically diverse coalitions to a much greater degree than they do now.  Reagan (Republican President) and Tip O'Neill (Democratic House speaker) were doing deals seemingly all the time.  In the smoke-filled room days prior to the mid-1970's, the norm was even closer to consensus politics.

Since the 1980's, the key developments on the road to further political polarization have been the Contract with America in 1994 (part of Republican strategy was to resist co-optation by Clintonian New Democrats, who dialled policy toward the center-right) and the abolition of earmarking in ~2010 (it is a lot harder to reach compromise on difficult policy issues without earmarks as sweeteners).

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 24, 2020, 01:26:46 PMRegarding Reagan, I was just curious as to what people of the time thought of him.  I'm not insinuating an opinion myself one way or the other.  I do agree that the body of work in politics was definitely long established by the time he became president.  To that end, who's seen movies with Ronald Reagan in them?  I've seen probably at least 10 but I tend be something of a movie buff.

I have no memory of Ronald Reagan as a Hollywood performer at all.  To me, growing up, he was just the President.  It was only much later, as I got into roads and reading about the history of the freeway system, that I became aware of him as California governor, and I still tend to see him as one of the backlash governors because he succeeded Pat Brown at a time when the state was spending heavily not just on highways, but also the California Water Project and the University of California system.

Back in the 1980's, people were very engaged with the Reagan administration's "Morning in America" messaging.  He also had the good fortune to be in office at the time the economies of the Communist countries crumbled from their overemphasis on primary production.  But, in my experience, Reagan was reliably unpopular with people who had been college-educated to PhD level because they could see that what he was doing economically (cutting taxes and hiking deficit spending) failed to agree with what they saw as tried-and-true policy prescriptions (keep government at approximately the same size in relation to GDP through the business cycle, increase or decrease government spending against the cycle so that boom and bust are flattened out).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 24, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
No area in the US is anywhere near herd immunity.  Herd immunity means that a large majority has already been infected and/or vaccinated...the lowest estimate I've seen noted is 60%...and it is not a magic specific number; each virus has it's own characteristics.  The most optimistic estimate I've seen is the above NYC study that estimates 21% in the dense, urban NYC area, has been infected.  So if that is accurate, and if we can extrapolate that across the entire US (both suspect), we need 3x more infections before we maybe start to achieve herd immunity.

Is there a good resource out there that compares the infection rate of this virus with varying degrees of immunity?   For instance, how much does the infection rate drop for this virus when there is 20% immunity in the population as opposed to say 5% immunity?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 24, 2020, 03:29:48 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 24, 2020, 02:09:14 PM
Regarding contact tracing: Why is that a thing now? I thought that the virus was now classified as "community spread" and contact tracing was no longer necessary.

Right now we're in the mitigation phase, which is meant to reduce community spread through these widespread restrictions.  Contact tracing is a part of the containment phase, in which the restrictions are placed on people who are infected.  Ideally, you do containment before mitigation is necessary, but if we can get the numbers down, we can go to a containment strategy, easing up on widespread restrictions and tracing lines of infection directly.  The healthdata.org projections are now indicating when a shift to containment is projected to be feasible for each state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on April 24, 2020, 03:32:24 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 24, 2020, 02:09:14 PM
My understanding of the federal relief legislation is that if an employee wishes to stay home for fear of contracting the virus, they can do so without penalty.

Regarding contact tracing: Why is that a thing now? I thought that the virus was now classified as "community spread" and contact tracing was no longer necessary.

Things like lockdowns eliminate community spread by confining the virus to peoples homes where it can't easily be transmitted to people other than family members, or at least significantly reduce the amount of spread by containing the virus mostly at home.

Things like protests, as an example, have the potential to reintroduce community spread because if as little as one person who is unknowingly infected attends, that person can potentially re-introduce the virus into a large gathering of people.  All of those people then have the potential to unknowingly spread the virus to whomever they regularly interact with, and so on.

Once community spread is controlled though and absolute numbers of infections are low enough public health officials can potentially track and trace all of the people who have interacted with newly infected individuals in order to limit the spread of the virus before it can be spread widely within the greater community.  An effective tracking and tracing program could potentially give more public confidence to people once the economy opens up again so that more people feel comfortable engaging in more aspects of everyday life.  This is particularly important in more urban centres.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 24, 2020, 03:55:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 24, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
No area in the US is anywhere near herd immunity.  Herd immunity means that a large majority has already been infected and/or vaccinated...the lowest estimate I've seen noted is 60%...and it is not a magic specific number; each virus has it's own characteristics.  The most optimistic estimate I've seen is the above NYC study that estimates 21% in the dense, urban NYC area, has been infected.  So if that is accurate, and if we can extrapolate that across the entire US (both suspect), we need 3x more infections before we maybe start to achieve herd immunity.

Is there a good resource out there that compares the infection rate of this virus with varying degrees of immunity?   For instance, how much does the infection rate drop for this virus when there is 20% immunity in the population as opposed to say 5% immunity?

If each person infects 2 others on average with no immunity, it will be 20% less (1.6) with 20% immunity. The problem is that we don't know the initial number, and it also varies based on several factors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 04:39:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 24, 2020, 03:55:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 24, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
No area in the US is anywhere near herd immunity.  Herd immunity means that a large majority has already been infected and/or vaccinated...the lowest estimate I've seen noted is 60%...and it is not a magic specific number; each virus has it's own characteristics.  The most optimistic estimate I've seen is the above NYC study that estimates 21% in the dense, urban NYC area, has been infected.  So if that is accurate, and if we can extrapolate that across the entire US (both suspect), we need 3x more infections before we maybe start to achieve herd immunity.

Is there a good resource out there that compares the infection rate of this virus with varying degrees of immunity?   For instance, how much does the infection rate drop for this virus when there is 20% immunity in the population as opposed to say 5% immunity?

If each person infects 2 others on average with no immunity, it will be 20% less (1.6) with 20% immunity. The problem is that we don't know the initial number, and it also varies based on several factors.

Correct on both statements.  We don't know what the initial "infection rate" is without immunity (most articles I've see have it above 2 others) and we don't know the percent of the population currently infected and recovered.  And we don't know, once recovered, how long or effective their antibodies are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 24, 2020, 04:42:16 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 24, 2020, 03:32:24 PM
Things like protests, as an example, have the potential to reintroduce community spread because if as little as one person who is unknowingly infected attends, that person can potentially re-introduce the virus into a large gathering of people.  All of those people then have the potential to unknowingly spread the virus to whomever they regularly interact with, and so on.

Almost exactly the same could be said for any other "essential activity" outside the home permitted under the typical lockdown order in the U.S., such as commuting to an essential job, or getting food, prescription meds, or medical care.

I say "almost" because lockdown protesters sometimes -- not always! -- don't wear face masks or otherwise socially distance as they should. But except for that, protests (of lockdown orders, or anything else) are an essential activity under the U.S. Constitution, whether a lockdown order says so or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 04:51:46 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 24, 2020, 04:42:16 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 24, 2020, 03:32:24 PM
Things like protests, as an example, have the potential to reintroduce community spread because if as little as one person who is unknowingly infected attends, that person can potentially re-introduce the virus into a large gathering of people.  All of those people then have the potential to unknowingly spread the virus to whomever they regularly interact with, and so on.

Almost exactly the same could be said for any other "essential activity" outside the home permitted under the typical lockdown order in the U.S., such as commuting to an essential job, or getting food, prescription meds, or medical care.

I say "almost" because lockdown protesters sometimes -- not always! -- don't wear face masks or otherwise socially distance as they should. But except for that, protests (of lockdown orders, or anything else) are an essential activity under the U.S. Constitution, whether a lockdown order says so or not.
Yeah, but protests are not essential to life. Getting food is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 04:56:43 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 04:51:46 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 24, 2020, 04:42:16 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 24, 2020, 03:32:24 PM
Things like protests, as an example, have the potential to reintroduce community spread because if as little as one person who is unknowingly infected attends, that person can potentially re-introduce the virus into a large gathering of people.  All of those people then have the potential to unknowingly spread the virus to whomever they regularly interact with, and so on.

Almost exactly the same could be said for any other "essential activity" outside the home permitted under the typical lockdown order in the U.S., such as commuting to an essential job, or getting food, prescription meds, or medical care.

I say "almost" because lockdown protesters sometimes -- not always! -- don't wear face masks or otherwise socially distance as they should. But except for that, protests (of lockdown orders, or anything else) are an essential activity under the U.S. Constitution, whether a lockdown order says so or not.
Yeah, but protests are not essential to life. Getting food is.
Depends on the topic...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 24, 2020, 04:57:38 PM
NC schools are closed for the rest of the year.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-state-education-leaders-remote-learning-continue-through-end-2019-2020-school (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-state-education-leaders-remote-learning-continue-through-end-2019-2020-school)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 04:58:13 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 04:56:43 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 24, 2020, 04:51:46 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 24, 2020, 04:42:16 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on April 24, 2020, 03:32:24 PM
Things like protests, as an example, have the potential to reintroduce community spread because if as little as one person who is unknowingly infected attends, that person can potentially re-introduce the virus into a large gathering of people.  All of those people then have the potential to unknowingly spread the virus to whomever they regularly interact with, and so on.

Almost exactly the same could be said for any other "essential activity" outside the home permitted under the typical lockdown order in the U.S., such as commuting to an essential job, or getting food, prescription meds, or medical care.

I say "almost" because lockdown protesters sometimes -- not always! -- don't wear face masks or otherwise socially distance as they should. But except for that, protests (of lockdown orders, or anything else) are an essential activity under the U.S. Constitution, whether a lockdown order says so or not.
Yeah, but protests are not essential to life. Getting food is.
Depends on the topic...
Yeah, I know. But not this topic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 25, 2020, 02:28:24 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
No area in the US is anywhere near herd immunity.  Herd immunity means that a large majority has already been infected and/or vaccinated...the lowest estimate I've seen noted is 60%...and it is not a magic specific number; each virus has it's own characteristics.  The most optimistic estimate I've seen is the above NYC study that estimates 21% in the dense, urban NYC area, has been infected.  So if that is accurate, and if we can extrapolate that across the entire US (both suspect), we need 3x more infections before we maybe start to achieve herd immunity.

Guarantee you can't extrapolate. The same study that said 21% in NYC said 3% in upstate NY. The percent of people who have been exposed will vary from place to place.

It also needs to be kept in mind that these are the numbers of people who tested positive for antibodies - as a binary yes/no. In reality, immunity is not a yes/no thing; a person can have varying levels of resistance against a virus. It is not known how much resistance the people in these groups who tested positive for antibodies actually have, but it is likely that some of them are only partially resistant. Additionally, there is some margin of error on the numbers themselves - the antibody test we have is estimated to be around 95% accurate based on one small trial but even that number is a little fuzzy due to insufficient empirical data. That accuracy also cuts both ways, the test is capable of producing both false negatives and false positives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 10:12:06 AM
Some beaches in California are reopening, and this morning I saw an article that said the beach at Newport Beach is expecting 40,000 visitors this weekend. Apparently, you can even get in the ocean and swim or surf!

How in the world are they able to pull this off right now? Beaches should be open - to an extent - but I'm terrified even to visit any public building right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 25, 2020, 10:43:09 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 25, 2020, 02:28:24 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on April 24, 2020, 08:16:44 AM
No area in the US is anywhere near herd immunity.  Herd immunity means that a large majority has already been infected and/or vaccinated...the lowest estimate I've seen noted is 60%...and it is not a magic specific number; each virus has it's own characteristics.  The most optimistic estimate I've seen is the above NYC study that estimates 21% in the dense, urban NYC area, has been infected.  So if that is accurate, and if we can extrapolate that across the entire US (both suspect), we need 3x more infections before we maybe start to achieve herd immunity.

Guarantee you can't extrapolate. The same study that said 21% in NYC said 3% in upstate NY. The percent of people who have been exposed will vary from place to place.

It also needs to be kept in mind that these are the numbers of people who tested positive for antibodies - as a binary yes/no. In reality, immunity is not a yes/no thing; a person can have varying levels of resistance against a virus. It is not known how much resistance the people in these groups who tested positive for antibodies actually have, but it is likely that some of them are only partially resistant. Additionally, there is some margin of error on the numbers themselves - the antibody test we have is estimated to be around 95% accurate based on one small trial but even that number is a little fuzzy due to insufficient empirical data. That accuracy also cuts both ways, the test is capable of producing both false negatives and false positives.

ALL correct. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 25, 2020, 12:10:36 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Just like the first statement by the WHO about "no evidence", they could easily be wrong.

From what I understand, there is evidence for it, but there is also evidence against it.

(For those who don't click the link: it's about getting the disease twice, not about herd immunity.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 25, 2020, 12:12:28 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825
This is probably the original document: https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19
There is definitely evidence of some immunity, as blood plasma transfusion seems to work. Big question is if there is enough immunity to avoid secondary (hopefully still much weaker!) infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 25, 2020, 12:59:27 PM
The daily hospitalizations in NYC are lower today than they were on March 20th when Cuomo ordered a statewide lockdown.  It took about two weeks for daily hospitalizations to plateau once the lockdown was in effect (as it can take up to 14 days for symptoms to develop).   

(https://i.imgur.com/MR1HhpF.png)

Even if daily hospitalizations surpass 626 per day upon reopening the NYC economy, there are several reasons to believe the next wave of infections won't be as bad as the first wave:

#1.  Masks will be required to be worn when out in public, slowing the infection rate.
#2.  Social distancing guidelines will stay in effect, slowing the infection rate.
#3.  There is an estimated 21% immunity to the virus in NYC, slowing the infection rate.
#4.  The fear of this virus will keep many people from venturing out in public, slowing the infection rate.

Reopen the NYC economy and keep a close track of the daily hospitalizations.  If daily hospitalizations stay under 626, i think the city will be in good shape.  But if it does surpass 626, then lock the economy down again (knowing that locking things down at this level on March 20 was effective at preventing daily hospitalizations from overwhelming the heathcare system). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 25, 2020, 01:01:54 PM
That graph doesn't make sense. How did it fade to zero by 4/23 without a long tail?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 25, 2020, 01:08:56 PM
^They say that due to delays in reporting, recent data are incomplete.  My assumption though is data from 7 days out would be relatively complete data.  A week out daily hospitalizations are below 626 cases per day which is a good sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 25, 2020, 01:21:18 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 25, 2020, 12:59:27 PM
The daily hospitalizations in NYC are lower today than they were on March 20th when Cuomo ordered a statewide lockdown.  It took about two weeks for daily hospitalizations to plateau once the lockdown was in effect (as it can take up to 14 days for symptoms to develop).   

(https://i.imgur.com/MR1HhpF.png)

Even if daily hospitalizations surpass 626 per day upon reopening the NYC economy, there are several reasons to believe the next wave of infections won't be as bad as the first wave:

#1.  Masks will be required to be worn when out in public, slowing the infection rate.
#2.  Social distancing guidelines will stay in effect, slowing the infection rate.
#3.  There is an estimated 21% immunity to the virus in NYC, slowing the infection rate.
#4.  The fear of this virus will keep many people from venturing out in public, slowing the infection rate.

Reopen the NYC economy and keep a close track of the daily hospitalizations.  If daily hospitalizations stay under 626, i think the city will be in good shape.  But if it does surpass 626, then lock the economy down again (knowing that locking things down at this level on March 20 was effective at preventing daily hospitalizations from overwhelming the heathcare system).
You realize that reopening NYC is impossible without crammed subway -  where social distancing of 1" is a pipe dream?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 01:35:28 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 25, 2020, 12:10:36 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Just like the first statement by the WHO about "no evidence", they could easily be wrong.

From what I understand, there is evidence for it, but there is also evidence against it.

(For those who don't click the link: it's about getting the disease twice, not about herd immunity.)

Isn't there almost always a risk of reinfection with large percentage of viruses anyways?  Just because someone has antibodies might not mean that they can't conceivably be reinfected to some degree. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 25, 2020, 01:40:42 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 25, 2020, 01:21:18 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 25, 2020, 12:59:27 PM
The daily hospitalizations in NYC are lower today than they were on March 20th when Cuomo ordered a statewide lockdown.  It took about two weeks for daily hospitalizations to plateau once the lockdown was in effect (as it can take up to 14 days for symptoms to develop).   

(https://i.imgur.com/MR1HhpF.png)

Even if daily hospitalizations surpass 626 per day upon reopening the NYC economy, there are several reasons to believe the next wave of infections won't be as bad as the first wave:

#1.  Masks will be required to be worn when out in public, slowing the infection rate.
#2.  Social distancing guidelines will stay in effect, slowing the infection rate.
#3.  There is an estimated 21% immunity to the virus in NYC, slowing the infection rate.
#4.  The fear of this virus will keep many people from venturing out in public, slowing the infection rate.

Reopen the NYC economy and keep a close track of the daily hospitalizations.  If daily hospitalizations stay under 626, i think the city will be in good shape.  But if it does surpass 626, then lock the economy down again (knowing that locking things down at this level on March 20 was effective at preventing daily hospitalizations from overwhelming the heathcare system).
You realize that reopening NYC is impossible without crammed subway -  where social distancing of 1" is a pipe dream?

Until we have a vaccine, those that can work from home are going to have to continue working from home, leaving more room for those who can't to keep their distance from each other.  Businesses are also going to have to stagger shifts away from the normal times to try to cut down on peaks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 01:50:50 PM
Speaking of vaccines what is the actual latest on that anyways?  A lot of people seem to think that they can count on a vaccine but there hasn't been much in the news about that I've found as of late.  Besides, even if there was a vaccine it would take months and possibly even years to be mass produced in large enough to be the so called "cure-all"  a lot are touting it to be.  A year or longer is way too late to have large segments of any economy sitting around idle, there would have to be some of gradual return to normalcy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 01:50:50 PM
Speaking of vaccines what is the actual latest on that anyways?  A lot of people seem to think that they can count on a vaccine but there hasn't been much in the news about that I've found as of late.  Besides, even if there was a vaccine it would take months and possibly even years to be mass produced in large enough to be the so called "cure-all"  a lot are touting it to be.  A year or longer is way too late to have large segments of any economy sitting around idle, there would have to be some of gradual return to normalcy.
There is a vaccine that showed promise in monkeys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 25, 2020, 02:03:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 01:50:50 PM
Speaking of vaccines what is the actual latest on that anyways?  A lot of people seem to think that they can count on a vaccine but there hasn't been much in the news about that I've found as of late.  Besides, even if there was a vaccine it would take months and possibly even years to be mass produced in large enough to be the so called "cure-all"  a lot are touting it to be.  A year or longer is way too late to have large segments of any economy sitting around idle, there would have to be some of gradual return to normalcy.
I heard about a few clinical trials. This search produces 4 on the first page (3 in China, 1 in UK) - and I didn't go past first page.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=covid+vaccine&Search=Search
Production, when it comes to that, would have to use flu vaccine pipeline, I assume.
ANd yes, a year is too late, and we'll have to get creative in reopening things slowly and carefuly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 25, 2020, 04:19:27 PM
The mayor of Beaumont, TX was caught violating the stay-at-home order. Rules for thee, but not for me...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/texas-mayor-apologizes-after-violating-stay-home-order-go-nail-n1192631 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/texas-mayor-apologizes-after-violating-stay-home-order-go-nail-n1192631)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 04:35:02 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 25, 2020, 04:19:27 PM
The mayor of Beaumont, TX was caught violating the stay-at-home order. Rules for thee, but not for me...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/texas-mayor-apologizes-after-violating-stay-home-order-go-nail-n1192631 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/texas-mayor-apologizes-after-violating-stay-home-order-go-nail-n1192631)

Couldn't she just have paid someone in cash to come to her home if that was so important?  People might still call BS if they see the interaction but if it's behind closed doors of a residence so who's to say?  Either way, getting nails done seems like a pretty low priority.  Now haircuts on the other hand, that's getting interesting over here with all the barbers closed.  People have been suddenly buying up hair clippers left and right, my brother even resorted to shaving his head. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 25, 2020, 04:45:44 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 25, 2020, 12:10:36 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Just like the first statement by the WHO about "no evidence", they could easily be wrong.

From what I understand, there is evidence for it, but there is also evidence against it.

WHO is being overly cautious in their stance on this.

It is true that there is a lack of empirical data regarding how much resistance or immunity people who've gotten sick and survived have for covid specifically.

It is, however, a well understood fact about viruses in general that the body forms immunity against them after being infected. This is why vaccines work. So logically the same should be true of covid.

The catch is that viruses *can* thwart this immunity by mutating - this is why flu shots need to be readministered annually and are only so effective; influenza viruses mutate rapidly and so people's immunity to them fades over time as they become more and more dissimilar to what the body recognizes as what they caught before.

Covid is also mutating, which raises prospect of the same thing becoming a problem and is part of why WHO is taking the stance they are - but, fortunately, it does not appear to be mutating as rapidly as influenza does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 25, 2020, 05:00:14 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 25, 2020, 04:45:44 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 25, 2020, 12:10:36 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Just like the first statement by the WHO about "no evidence", they could easily be wrong.

From what I understand, there is evidence for it, but there is also evidence against it.

WHO is being overly cautious in their stance on this.

It is true that there is a lack of empirical data regarding how much resistance or immunity people who've gotten sick and survived have for covid specifically.

It is, however, a well understood fact about viruses in general that the body forms immunity against them after being infected. This is why vaccines work. So logically the same should be true of covid.

The catch is that viruses *can* thwart this immunity by mutating - this is why flu shots need to be readministered annually and are only so effective; influenza viruses mutate rapidly and so people's immunity to them fades over time as they become more and more dissimilar to what the body recognizes as what they caught before.

Covid is also mutating, which raises prospect of the same thing becoming a problem and is part of why WHO is taking the stance they are - but, fortunately, it does not appear to be mutating as rapidly as influenza does.
Its not only about infection, it is about prior knowledge:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1038/emi.2017.44
There was evidence of reinfection of camels (by MERS) that were previously seropositive, thus suggesting that prior infection does not provide complete immunity from reinfection
https://www.jci.org/articles/view/18819
In animals, reinfection with coronaviruses is common, with or without disease symptoms.


To me it sounds that personal immunity may be there, but herd immunity is difficult at immune individual still can get sick (albeit mildly)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
Wow...  I've been away for a few weeks, and this thread has 30+ pages of unread posts.  I got through a couple, then gave up.

Anyway, I see that earlier conversation briefly touched on cases per population, which is something I hardly ever see in the news.  Raw totals aren't really very useful when it comes to comparing different places, so why aren't people talking about per-population numbers more?

For the one on the left, I got the list of total confirmed cases of COVID-19, then took the top 49 countries, then ranked them based by total confirmed cases per 100,000 people.  To be clear:  there are countries with higher rates per 100,000 people, but I did it this way for two reasons:
  (1) I didn't feel like doing the math for every single country, and
  (2) I figured that countries with few cases would skew the results too much.

Reason #2, for example, is why I capped it at 49 instead of 50:  I thought Luxembourg (a small, urban nation) being at the top of the list would be less useful than simply leaving it out of the data.

(https://i.imgur.com/PBBZwzU.jpg)

Things to note:

  (1) For all the talk about how Sweden (kept the country going) has done so much worse than Norway (enforced more stringent shutdown measures), their per-population numbers are actually quite comparable.

  (2) China has a huge population.  It ranked 45th out of 49.  Would be even lower if I had included more countries.

  (3) Some smaller-population countries that aren't super-urban still do top the list, such as Belgium and Ireland, yet I haven't heard much in the news about them.

  (4) Numbers in New York state are approaching 1 confirmed case per 70 people.  Massachusetts, currently in 3rd place, isn't even half that rate.

  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.




As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:

At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 05:14:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some states have already, or are about to.

Ohio is saying May 1 and is acting very firm about it, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:15:50 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 25, 2020, 04:45:44 PM
It is, however, a well understood fact about viruses in general that the body forms immunity against them after being infected. This is why vaccines work. So logically the same should be true of covid.

The catch is that viruses *can* thwart this immunity by mutating - this is why flu shots need to be readministered annually and are only so effective; influenza viruses mutate rapidly and so people's immunity to them fades over time as they become more and more dissimilar to what the body recognizes as what they caught before.

Covid is also mutating, which raises prospect of the same thing becoming a problem and is part of why WHO is taking the stance they are - but, fortunately, it does not appear to be mutating as rapidly as influenza does.

This.

If someone gets re-infected with COVID, then it's likely they actually caught what is basically a different strain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:16:38 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 05:20:47 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some counties in California have begun loosening restrictions already, but they are mainly things like; beaches, skiing areas, and golf courses.  I'm glad the outdoor activities have been coming back first.  The pressure will be really on the NPS here in Central California to reopen probably starting in May.  Personally I don't think Los Angeles County should be driving what the rest of the state is doing but it seems to be what the Governor is going with.  So far the state has only loosened it's grip on allowing elective surgeries. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 25, 2020, 05:51:44 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:16:38 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.

Arkansas never has, but our governor will allow dental procedures starting May 18. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:56:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 05:20:47 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some counties in California have begun loosening restrictions already, but they are mainly things like; beaches, skiing areas, and golf courses.  I'm glad the outdoor activities have been coming back first.  The pressure will be really on the NPS here in Central California to reopen probably starting in May.  Personally I don't think Los Angeles County should be driving what the rest of the state is doing but it seems to be what the Governor is going with.  So far the state has only loosened it's grip on allowing elective surgeries.
Unfortunately, MA seems to be an epicenter so it could take longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 06:00:07 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:56:15 PMUnfortunately, MA seems to be an epicenter so it could take longer.

Massachusetts has been doing gobs of tests and contact tracing the past week. They're detecting cases no other state would ever detect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 06:03:42 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:56:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 05:20:47 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some counties in California have begun loosening restrictions already, but they are mainly things like; beaches, skiing areas, and golf courses.  I'm glad the outdoor activities have been coming back first.  The pressure will be really on the NPS here in Central California to reopen probably starting in May.  Personally I don't think Los Angeles County should be driving what the rest of the state is doing but it seems to be what the Governor is going with.  So far the state has only loosened it's grip on allowing elective surgeries.
Unfortunately, MA seems to be an epicenter so it could take longer.

The problem on the eastern seaboard is everyone is so packed atop each other that it makes it difficult to open things back up.  Out west the bigger cities (aside San Francisco) are spread out.  Los Angeles County is by far the hardest hit spot in California.  There are a couple counties still (I believe Mariposa was one) that don't even have a reported case. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 25, 2020, 06:13:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all (https://doh.sd.gov/news/coronavirus.aspx#updates). Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and the city is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 25, 2020, 06:42:27 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:

At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?

As someone who is religious, but does not attend church: you just to lean into your faith a bit. If you're actually facing sickness, and death, you definitely should not be near other people. That will cause further sickness and death. If your fear is strong, that's totally understandable, but why not simply call your pastor or bishop? Or even hold a Zoom conference. Churches near me have been ordered shut by the State of Washington, but have largely moved to electronic sermons. Maybe we can't touch and hold each other, but for the sake of everyone else (religious or not), that's probably a good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 25, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 25, 2020, 06:42:27 PM
Or even hold a Zoom conference.

Or, for the less tech-savvy, a drive-in service with the church using a low-power radio transmitter so churchgoers can listen on their car radios. Drive-in services have been hassled by some local authorities, but hopefully the Attorney General's forceful intervention in those cases will stop that nonsense.

Not a complete substitute for services with hugs and other personal contact (like what I'm accustomed to), but it will help the church keep its members alive until this all blows over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 06:55:57 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 25, 2020, 06:13:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all (https://doh.sd.gov/news/coronavirus.aspx#updates). Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City and ) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.

I wish there was similar measures here in California as I was trying to highlight with the differences between the urban counties versus rural. One size fits all doesn't exactly apply when you're talking about states like Wyoming or somewhere as far flung as say Sierra County. 

Interestingly here in California one of the largest rural outbreaks was in Mono County at Mammoth.  The outbreak was caused by non-locals from the Los Angeles Area trying to hunker down at second homes and ski resorts.  As if Mono County needed another reason to despise the Los Angeles Basin after the L.A. Aqueduct.   One of the reasons Mariposa County doesn't have any cases out in the western Sierras was local pressure to close Yosemite which kept tourists away. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 07:03:23 PM
I like the idea of drive-in religious services.

Right now I'd be terrified to attend an indoor service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 07:13:01 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 07:03:23 PM
I like the idea of drive-in religious services.

Right now I'd be terrified to attend an indoor service.

What about drive thru confessions?   Apparently that's actually a thing amusingly:

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/catholic-diocese-of-pittsburgh-drive-thru-confessions/

Those should start up in Florida, it would add a whole new wrinkle to the "McChurch"  format down there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 25, 2020, 07:16:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 06:55:57 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 25, 2020, 06:13:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all (https://doh.sd.gov/news/coronavirus.aspx#updates). Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City and ) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.

I wish there was similar measures here in California as I was trying to highlight with the differences between the urban counties versus rural. One size fits all doesn't exactly apply when you're talking about states like Wyoming or somewhere as far flung as say Sierra County. 

Interestingly here in California one of the largest rural outbreaks was in Mono County at Mammoth.  The outbreak was caused by non-locals from the Los Angeles Area trying to hunker down at second homes and ski resorts.  As if Mono County needed another reason to despise the Los Angeles Basin after the L.A. Aqueduct.   One of the reasons Mariposa County doesn't have any cases out in the western Sierras was local pressure to close Yosemite which kept tourists away.
Dang I had no Idea there was the Mammoth lakes outbreak though. This has to be one of many unreported cases out there of COVID-19 cases.

It's just that in here in NorCal all of the attention has been directed at Solano County, CA extending their Shelter in Place orders until May 17th.

https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/solano-county-stay-home-order/ (https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/solano-county-stay-home-order/)
Also the City of San Francisco is considering extending their Shelter in Place orders.
https://www.ktvu.com/news/san-francisco-shelter-in-place-order-very-likely-to-be-extended (https://www.ktvu.com/news/san-francisco-shelter-in-place-order-very-likely-to-be-extended)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article242129761.html (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article242129761.html)
If you are wondering why some counties in California are either already extending shelter in place or debating Shelter in place orders. Yes the recent protests in Downtown Sacramento demanding California to reopen is one factor here and the spike rumors have been at play here
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 07:29:31 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 25, 2020, 07:16:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 06:55:57 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 25, 2020, 06:13:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all (https://doh.sd.gov/news/coronavirus.aspx#updates). Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City and ) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.

I wish there was similar measures here in California as I was trying to highlight with the differences between the urban counties versus rural. One size fits all doesn't exactly apply when you're talking about states like Wyoming or somewhere as far flung as say Sierra County. 

Interestingly here in California one of the largest rural outbreaks was in Mono County at Mammoth.  The outbreak was caused by non-locals from the Los Angeles Area trying to hunker down at second homes and ski resorts.  As if Mono County needed another reason to despise the Los Angeles Basin after the L.A. Aqueduct.   One of the reasons Mariposa County doesn't have any cases out in the western Sierras was local pressure to close Yosemite which kept tourists away.
Dang I had no Idea there was the Mammoth lakes outbreak though. This has to be one of many unreported cases out there of COVID-19 cases.

It's just that in NorCal all of the attention has been directed at Solano County, CA extending their Shelter in Place orders until May 17th.

https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/solano-county-stay-home-order/ (https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/solano-county-stay-home-order/)
Also the City of San Francisco is considering extending their Shelter in Place orders.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article242129761.html
If you are wondering why some counties in California are either already extending shelter in place or debating Shelter in place orders. Yes the recent protests in Downtown Sacramento demanding California to reopen is one factor here and the spike rumors have been at play here

Interestingly Fresno County doesn't have a specific order but is advising following state directs.  Even stranger the City of Fresno has one and the mayor has even issued threats regarding fines in addition to possible jail time.  The City is also claiming (as of a couple days ago) that nobody has been fined:

https://news.yahoo.com/heres-stay-home-orders-expiring-195815567.html

https://www.co.fresno.ca.us/departments/public-health/covid-19

The Mammoth outbreak was pretty early on and led to a closure of CA 203.  Apparently the confirmed cases is at 24 for Mono County at the moment.  I suspect that figure doesn't count residents from other counties that were confirmed but had primary residences elsewhere. 

Right now the counties in California with 0 confirmed cases are:

Mariposa
Lassen
Modoc
Trinity
Sierra

Los Angeles County presently accounts for almost half of approximately 39,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in California at the moment and slightly more than half of the almost 1,600 fatalities. 

Referencing Solano County, apparently they are a tick just below 200 cases.  The term "swell"  tends to be misleading IMO if you go from say 200 cases in one day to 230.   That gets thrown around a lot by the Fresno Bee and it's kind of absurd when comparing to what is going on in Los Angeles County. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 07:46:47 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

I'll place my bets on mid-July for NJ. Kinda surprised at how Gov. Murphy's been instilling false hope by moving the school reopening date to mid-May instead of just (in the footsteps of 43 other states, mind you) outright shutting them till the fall altogether.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on April 25, 2020, 07:48:44 PM
Seen on humorist Dave Barry's blog:

Family Puts Up "˜Jurisdiction Of The Ministry Of Silly Walks' Sign In Front Of Their House, Films 30 Silly Walks By Passersby
https://www.boredpanda.com/yorkshire-silly-walks/?utm_source=mail.google&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=organic

Stuff like this give me a glimmer of hope for the future of humanity.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 25, 2020, 08:13:43 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?
Missouri is going to start loosening restrictions May 4, though local laws override this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 25, 2020, 08:41:42 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 25, 2020, 05:51:44 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:16:38 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.

Arkansas never has, but our governor will allow dental procedures starting May 18. 

Here in Virginia, emergency dental procedures are allowed. My wife went for a root canal this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on April 25, 2020, 09:00:23 PM
Utah still has five counties without a single reported case: Beaver, Daggett, Piute, Rich, and Wayne. Unsurprisingly, those are five of the six least populous counties of the state, and with the exception of Beaver, all have less than 3000 people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 25, 2020, 09:04:05 PM
It's a month old, but it's still funny:

There's a "Corona Antivirus" that you can install that will supposedly protect you from COVID-19. Unsurprisingly, it's a virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 25, 2020, 09:06:07 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 25, 2020, 08:41:42 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 25, 2020, 05:51:44 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:16:38 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.

Arkansas never has, but our governor will allow dental procedures starting May 18. 

Here in Virginia, emergency dental procedures are allowed. My wife went for a root canal this week.
If emergency root canal would not be allowed, I suspect government would be overturned within a week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 25, 2020, 06:42:27 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:

At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?

As someone who is religious, but does not attend church: you just to lean into your faith a bit. If you're actually facing sickness, and death, you definitely should not be near other people. That will cause further sickness and death. If your fear is strong, that's totally understandable, but why not simply call your pastor or bishop? Or even hold a Zoom conference. Churches near me have been ordered shut by the State of Washington, but have largely moved to electronic sermons. Maybe we can't touch and hold each other, but for the sake of everyone else (religious or not), that's probably a good thing.

I'd argue that religion is only partly defined by one's personal faith and belief system, but is also–perhaps moreso–defined by one's corporate acts of worship.  It's pretty hard to imagine, for example, the Roman Catholic religion without mass, the taking of Communion, confession and absolution, etc, etc.  Hymns were meant to be sung corporately, the Bible was written to be read publicly, the distribution of the bread and wine at Communion either (depending on your denomination) symbolizes or even carries on Jesus' giving of himself for his followers, and so on and so forth.

I'm reminded of back when my wife and I had a housemate from Saudi Arabia, a student at WSU.  One day in conversation, religious intolerance in that nation came up.  He stated that there is freedom of religion in Saudi Arabia, because religion is about what you personally believe in your heart, and the Saudi government can't stop you believing in your heart whatever you want.  That's ridiculous!  Religion is so much more than that.  It's actions.  It's practice.  It's traditions.  It's sights and sounds and smells and even peculiar vocabulary.  Take all the "extra" stuff away, and what you're left with is not religion.

Calling someone on the phone or seeing them on a screen is just not the same.  A human being with another human being is what it takes to make a real human connection.  Imagine if my wife died suddenly, and I were left to raise three sons without her.  I'd be livid if having a funeral were against the law–not allowed to cry with our brothers and sisters from church;  not allowed to sing songs of sorrow and comfort and joy with others who have lost loved ones;  not allowed to have our pastor and best friends lay their hands on my back and pray for me;  not allowed to have a potluck dinner of dishes prepared by the same ladies my wife cooked for when they were home with newborns or laid up from a recent hospital stay;  not allowed to look right into people's eyes and find no words to fill the silence;  not allowed to begin moving on with life by getting out of the house and having real conversations with other people...

This is literally what people are being deprived of.  My parents just received a dis-invitation to a wedding.  That couple will not get to celebrate what is perhaps the happiest day of their life in church.  No walking down the aisle past family and friends, no bridesmaids looking uncomfortable in their dresses, no lighting of the unity candle, no grinning at the ring bearer grabbing his crotch for the whole congregation to see, no cheering when they kiss, no pastor exhorting the whole congregation to support their marriage, no receiving line full of people to offer sage advice, no big family pictures out on the lawn, no dance, no reception, no rice thrown on their heads as they make their way to the car in the parking lot, none of that.  What they will have lost is a lot more than just a few Sundays in the pew, but a whole day of memories that might have been.

For what it's worth, tomorrow will be my family's seventh week in a row without going to church and without having our weekly "small group" meeting.  Our pastor records a sermon on Thursday afternoons, they air online Sunday mornings, and our family–along with most others from the church–watches them at home.  I usually pick out a couple of songs to play on the guitar and a Bible passage to read, and one of us prays out loud.  But that's just not the same thing.  This morning was the first time we musicians have gotten together at church since mid-March.  We did sound check, camera setup, and all that good stuff in preparation for recording two songs per week to go along with the online sermons.  While it felt great to see my friends again and to play songs of the faith again, it simply isn't the same when there's no one out in the congregation to sing along.  It felt more like making a music video than it did a worship experience, and I'm afraid that will be the case on recording day too.  And I'm also afraid that, for those at home, it will feel more like watching a music video than it will a worship experience.

I realize that this thread isn't supposed to be about religion, but I think it's simply illustrative of what gets taken away from us by mandatory self-isolation.  We lose each other.  What helps keep life moving along is to sit on your friends' couch and talk about work, joke about how your kids drive you nuts, self-diagnose your cars' latest mechanical issues, make fun of whatever political party is on the other side of the fence from you, eat sloppy joes and ice cream, and watch the game.  What keeps us sane is to roll our eyes at other people's kids, chuckle at wondering how that woman managed to squeeze into that dress, bite your tongue when your friend is being controlling with his wife and then mention it to your own wife later that day, and feel old when the college freshmen in front of you in line at Wendy's all have their noses buried in their smartphones.

We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:11:13 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 25, 2020, 05:51:44 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:16:38 PM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.

Arkansas never has, but our governor will allow dental procedures starting May 18. 

Heh.  When I first read that, it looked like you were saying Arkansas has never allowed dental procedures.

Actually, come to think of it, that sounds like the beginning of a pretty good joke....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 25, 2020, 09:32:36 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
Imagine if my wife died suddenly, and I were left to raise three sons without her.  I'd be livid if having a funeral were against the law–not allowed to cry with our brothers and sisters from church;  not allowed to sing songs of sorrow and comfort and joy with others who have lost loved ones;  not allowed to have our pastor and best friends lay their hands on my back and pray for me;  not allowed to have a potluck dinner of dishes prepared by the same ladies my wife cooked for when they were home with newborns or laid up from a recent hospital stay;  not allowed to look right into people's eyes and find no words to fill the silence;  not allowed to begin moving on with life by getting out of the house and having real conversations with other people...

Fair points. But it can be worse. In Milan and other parts of northern Italy, where some of my relatives are trying to outlast the pandemic, the only attendees at funerals are a priest and the undertaker. Not even immediate family can attend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 25, 2020, 09:40:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:11:13 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 25, 2020, 05:51:44 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:16:38 PM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.

Arkansas never has, but our governor will allow dental procedures starting May 18. 

Heh.  When I first read that, it looked like you were saying Arkansas has never allowed dental procedures.

Actually, come to think of it, that sounds like the beginning of a pretty good joke....

That's how you know the toothbrush was invented in West Virginia: Anybody else would have called it a "teethbrush."

:bigass:


(I've typed that smiley often enough that my autocorrect now suggests "bigass"!")
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 25, 2020, 09:50:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
Wow...  I've been away for a few weeks, and this thread has 30+ pages of unread posts.  I got through a couple, then gave up.

It certainly seems to be growing at a rate of at least a page a day. It's lost any semblance of control, and I feel like many of the posts I've made here have gotten completely and utterly lost in the shuffle.


Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:
At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it.

I guess I don't take the "in person" stuff that you've mentioned in this post and others quite as hard. Partly because I'm an introvert, partly because I'm not exactly lacking company in my current circumstances, and partly because, as others have already mentioned, church services can be held online, just like (almost) anything else these days.

As far as what you say as to church being needed now more than ever, that's something that I personally agree with, and I think it's clear, or at least should be, that what's happening now is part of the progression outlined in the Book of Revelation. I think this a really interesting topic, but given the forum guidelines, is probably something that should be taken to PM if we want to discuss in detail.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 09:58:18 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 25, 2020, 09:32:36 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
Imagine if my wife died suddenly, and I were left to raise three sons without her.  I'd be livid if having a funeral were against the law–not allowed to cry with our brothers and sisters from church;  not allowed to sing songs of sorrow and comfort and joy with others who have lost loved ones;  not allowed to have our pastor and best friends lay their hands on my back and pray for me;  not allowed to have a potluck dinner of dishes prepared by the same ladies my wife cooked for when they were home with newborns or laid up from a recent hospital stay;  not allowed to look right into people's eyes and find no words to fill the silence;  not allowed to begin moving on with life by getting out of the house and having real conversations with other people...

Fair points. But it can be worse. In Milan and other parts of northern Italy, where some of my relatives are trying to outlast the pandemic, the only attendees at funerals are a priest and the undertaker. Not even immediate family can attend.

Italy has been a cesspool or awfulness pretty much through the entire outbreak there.  Most of the people drawing comparisons to the Great Plague of London usually have brought up Italy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 10:20:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 25, 2020, 06:42:27 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:

At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?

As someone who is religious, but does not attend church: you just to lean into your faith a bit. If you're actually facing sickness, and death, you definitely should not be near other people. That will cause further sickness and death. If your fear is strong, that's totally understandable, but why not simply call your pastor or bishop? Or even hold a Zoom conference. Churches near me have been ordered shut by the State of Washington, but have largely moved to electronic sermons. Maybe we can't touch and hold each other, but for the sake of everyone else (religious or not), that's probably a good thing.

I'd argue that religion is only partly defined by one's personal faith and belief system, but is also–perhaps moreso–defined by one's corporate acts of worship.  It's pretty hard to imagine, for example, the Roman Catholic religion without mass, the taking of Communion, confession and absolution, etc, etc.  Hymns were meant to be sung corporately, the Bible was written to be read publicly, the distribution of the bread and wine at Communion either (depending on your denomination) symbolizes or even carries on Jesus' giving of himself for his followers, and so on and so forth.

I'm reminded of back when my wife and I had a housemate from Saudi Arabia, a student at WSU.  One day in conversation, religious intolerance in that nation came up.  He stated that there is freedom of religion in Saudi Arabia, because religion is about what you personally believe in your heart, and the Saudi government can't stop you believing in your heart whatever you want.  That's ridiculous!  Religion is so much more than that.  It's actions.  It's practice.  It's traditions.  It's sights and sounds and smells and even peculiar vocabulary.  Take all the "extra" stuff away, and what you're left with is not religion.

Calling someone on the phone or seeing them on a screen is just not the same.  A human being with another human being is what it takes to make a real human connection.  Imagine if my wife died suddenly, and I were left to raise three sons without her.  I'd be livid if having a funeral were against the law–not allowed to cry with our brothers and sisters from church;  not allowed to sing songs of sorrow and comfort and joy with others who have lost loved ones;  not allowed to have our pastor and best friends lay their hands on my back and pray for me;  not allowed to have a potluck dinner of dishes prepared by the same ladies my wife cooked for when they were home with newborns or laid up from a recent hospital stay;  not allowed to look right into people's eyes and find no words to fill the silence;  not allowed to begin moving on with life by getting out of the house and having real conversations with other people...

This is literally what people are being deprived of.  My parents just received a dis-invitation to a wedding.  That couple will not get to celebrate what is perhaps the happiest day of their life in church.  No walking down the aisle past family and friends, no bridesmaids looking uncomfortable in their dresses, no lighting of the unity candle, no grinning at the ring bearer grabbing his crotch for the whole congregation to see, no cheering when they kiss, no pastor exhorting the whole congregation to support their marriage, no receiving line full of people to offer sage advice, no big family pictures out on the lawn, no dance, no reception, no rice thrown on their heads as they make their way to the car in the parking lot, none of that.  What they will have lost is a lot more than just a few Sundays in the pew, but a whole day of memories that might have been.

For what it's worth, tomorrow will be my family's seventh week in a row without going to church and without having our weekly "small group" meeting.  Our pastor records a sermon on Thursday afternoons, they air online Sunday mornings, and our family–along with most others from the church–watches them at home.  I usually pick out a couple of songs to play on the guitar and a Bible passage to read, and one of us prays out loud.  But that's just not the same thing.  This morning was the first time we musicians have gotten together at church since mid-March.  We did sound check, camera setup, and all that good stuff in preparation for recording two songs per week to go along with the online sermons.  While it felt great to see my friends again and to play songs of the faith again, it simply isn't the same when there's no one out in the congregation to sing along.  It felt more like making a music video than it did a worship experience, and I'm afraid that will be the case on recording day too.  And I'm also afraid that, for those at home, it will feel more like watching a music video than it will a worship experience.

I realize that this thread isn't supposed to be about religion, but I think it's simply illustrative of what gets taken away from us by mandatory self-isolation.  We lose each other.  What helps keep life moving along is to sit on your friends' couch and talk about work, joke about how your kids drive you nuts, self-diagnose your cars' latest mechanical issues, make fun of whatever political party is on the other side of the fence from you, eat sloppy joes and ice cream, and watch the game.  What keeps us sane is to roll our eyes at other people's kids, chuckle at wondering how that woman managed to squeeze into that dress, bite your tongue when your friend is being controlling with his wife and then mention it to your own wife later that day, and feel old when the college freshmen in front of you in line at Wendy's all have their noses buried in their smartphones.

We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it.
It's a really tough situation, I will admit. My church is going online too, and it's kinda not the same. Hopefully we can see other humans in person again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 10:50:01 PM
To hit on a certain point kphoger made:

"We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it."

I guess that's what frustrates me and at times makes me angry about the current situation at hand.  I've seen scenarios play out in my immediate life where people have thought that they have "all the time in the world" to wait around for things to get better...sadly it did not turn out to be the case for many.  Truth is that none of really have any notion of when our time is up and in the manner said life will end.  To that end, the longer things like "shelter in place," "stay at home," "quarantine," or whatever you want to call goes on the less worthwhile life is becoming. 

I for one am not okay with living just to exist, and especially existing for no real purpose.  What frustrates me is that there are many out there in the world who seem that think stuff like staying at home like we are now is "normal" or "acceptable" when it comes with no clearly definition on when those restrictions will let up.  It leaves me questioning if things will get better any time soon?...and what will be missed because of it?

I got lucky, my wedding was last year.  I couldn't fathom having that day ruined because some governor told me that that I needed to stay at home because I might be spreading a virus that probably has a less than 1% chance of killing those it infects.  I look back at my parents and see what they had to struggle through at the ends of their lives with disease after doctors told them that "staying home" and "sticking to the plan" was the best course of action.  I can't imagine that either of them if they were alive today would look at the situation at hand and agree that staying home for an undefined amount of time was the right way to live.  The spart that angers me most is that people who follow the rules proscribed by whatever local health board end up being vilified by "the community" for making reasonable arguments for why things should begin to loose up (that's not an implication that some more "notable" actions and/or statements people have made are reasonable).

That said, part of my job is as a safety manager (which I find ironic).  To that end, I do understand the need for the restrictions that ended up happened.  I do understand uncertainty scares peoples, it causes things like panic and a break down of rational actions.  I do understand the need to not suddenly just "lift restrictions," but I can't sit back and say what is going on now is "life" or acceptable in the long term.  Hopefully things start loosening up soon or at least some measure of actual assurance starts to get out there.  Right now, I see a lot of hopelessness that is only going to get worse the longer things go on.  I can't help but wonder if in the end will more damage will be done by restrictions taking the potential joys of life away from so many...I guess we'll all find out sooner or later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 11:04:19 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 10:50:01 PM
To hit on a certain point kphoger made:

"We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it."

I guess that's what frustrates me and at times makes me angry about the current situation at hand.  I've seen scenarios play out in my immediate life where people have thought that they have "all the time in the world" to wait around for things to get better...sadly it did not turn out to be the case for many.  Truth is that none of really have any notion of when our time is up and in the manner said life will end.  To that end, the longer things like "shelter in place," "stay at home," "quarantine," or whatever you want to call goes on the less worthwhile life is becoming. 

I for one am not okay with living just to exist, and especially existing for no real purpose.  What frustrates me is that there are many out there in the world who seem that think stuff like staying at home like we are now is "normal" or "acceptable" when it comes with no clearly definition on when those restrictions will let up.  It leaves me questioning if things will get better any time soon?...and what will be missed because of it?

I got lucky, my wedding was last year.  I couldn't fathom having that day ruined because some governor told me that that I needed to stay at home because I might be spreading a virus that probably has a less than 1% chance of killing those it infects.  I look back at my parents and see what they had to struggle through at the ends of their lives with disease after doctors told them that "staying home" and "sticking to the plan" was the best course of action.  I can't imagine that either of them if they were alive today would look at the situation at hand and agree that staying home for an undefined amount of time was the right way to live.  The spart that angers me most is that people who follow the rules proscribed by whatever local health board end up being vilified by "the community" for making reasonable arguments for why things should begin to loose up (that's not an implication that some more "notable" actions and/or statements people have made are reasonable).

That said, part of my job is as a safety manager (which I find ironic).  To that end, I do understand the need for the restrictions that ended up happened.  I do understand uncertainty scares peoples, it causes things like panic and a break down of rational actions.  I do understand the need to not suddenly just "lift restrictions," but I can't sit back and say what is going on now is "life" or acceptable in the long term.  Hopefully things start loosening up soon or at least some measure of actual assurance starts to get out there.  Right now, I see a lot of hopelessness that is only going to get worse the longer things go on.  I can't help but wonder if in the end will more damage will be done by restrictions taking the potential joys of life away from so many...I guess we'll all find out sooner or later.

And all we have to show for the lockdowns is more and more deaths. The lockdowns were sold to us as a cure-all, and that turned out to be bogus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 11:13:17 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 11:04:19 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 10:50:01 PM
To hit on a certain point kphoger made:

"We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it."

I guess that's what frustrates me and at times makes me angry about the current situation at hand.  I've seen scenarios play out in my immediate life where people have thought that they have "all the time in the world" to wait around for things to get better...sadly it did not turn out to be the case for many.  Truth is that none of really have any notion of when our time is up and in the manner said life will end.  To that end, the longer things like "shelter in place," "stay at home," "quarantine," or whatever you want to call goes on the less worthwhile life is becoming. 

I for one am not okay with living just to exist, and especially existing for no real purpose.  What frustrates me is that there are many out there in the world who seem that think stuff like staying at home like we are now is "normal" or "acceptable" when it comes with no clearly definition on when those restrictions will let up.  It leaves me questioning if things will get better any time soon?...and what will be missed because of it?

I got lucky, my wedding was last year.  I couldn't fathom having that day ruined because some governor told me that that I needed to stay at home because I might be spreading a virus that probably has a less than 1% chance of killing those it infects.  I look back at my parents and see what they had to struggle through at the ends of their lives with disease after doctors told them that "staying home" and "sticking to the plan" was the best course of action.  I can't imagine that either of them if they were alive today would look at the situation at hand and agree that staying home for an undefined amount of time was the right way to live.  The spart that angers me most is that people who follow the rules proscribed by whatever local health board end up being vilified by "the community" for making reasonable arguments for why things should begin to loose up (that's not an implication that some more "notable" actions and/or statements people have made are reasonable).

That said, part of my job is as a safety manager (which I find ironic).  To that end, I do understand the need for the restrictions that ended up happened.  I do understand uncertainty scares peoples, it causes things like panic and a break down of rational actions.  I do understand the need to not suddenly just "lift restrictions," but I can't sit back and say what is going on now is "life" or acceptable in the long term.  Hopefully things start loosening up soon or at least some measure of actual assurance starts to get out there.  Right now, I see a lot of hopelessness that is only going to get worse the longer things go on.  I can't help but wonder if in the end will more damage will be done by restrictions taking the potential joys of life away from so many...I guess we'll all find out sooner or later.

And all we have to show for the lockdowns is more and more deaths. The lockdowns were sold to us as a cure-all, and that turned out to be bogus.

For what it's worth I don't think many public officials have sold it that way.  They way I've always seen it stated the goal was/is to not have the hospitals overwhelmed with sick.  It's mostly regular people who seem to think that all these measures had the goal of outright stopping the illness and death.  Yeah, isolation probably saved some given the hospitals haven't been overwhelmed.  But if things don't start open up the isolation will have start to have economic effects that will damage lives that can't be undone...for some that's already happened. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 11:22:26 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 11:04:19 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 10:50:01 PM
To hit on a certain point kphoger made:

"We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it."

I guess that's what frustrates me and at times makes me angry about the current situation at hand.  I've seen scenarios play out in my immediate life where people have thought that they have "all the time in the world" to wait around for things to get better...sadly it did not turn out to be the case for many.  Truth is that none of really have any notion of when our time is up and in the manner said life will end.  To that end, the longer things like "shelter in place," "stay at home," "quarantine," or whatever you want to call goes on the less worthwhile life is becoming. 

I for one am not okay with living just to exist, and especially existing for no real purpose.  What frustrates me is that there are many out there in the world who seem that think stuff like staying at home like we are now is "normal" or "acceptable" when it comes with no clearly definition on when those restrictions will let up.  It leaves me questioning if things will get better any time soon?...and what will be missed because of it?

I got lucky, my wedding was last year.  I couldn't fathom having that day ruined because some governor told me that that I needed to stay at home because I might be spreading a virus that probably has a less than 1% chance of killing those it infects.  I look back at my parents and see what they had to struggle through at the ends of their lives with disease after doctors told them that "staying home" and "sticking to the plan" was the best course of action.  I can't imagine that either of them if they were alive today would look at the situation at hand and agree that staying home for an undefined amount of time was the right way to live.  The spart that angers me most is that people who follow the rules proscribed by whatever local health board end up being vilified by "the community" for making reasonable arguments for why things should begin to loose up (that's not an implication that some more "notable" actions and/or statements people have made are reasonable).

That said, part of my job is as a safety manager (which I find ironic).  To that end, I do understand the need for the restrictions that ended up happened.  I do understand uncertainty scares peoples, it causes things like panic and a break down of rational actions.  I do understand the need to not suddenly just "lift restrictions," but I can't sit back and say what is going on now is "life" or acceptable in the long term.  Hopefully things start loosening up soon or at least some measure of actual assurance starts to get out there.  Right now, I see a lot of hopelessness that is only going to get worse the longer things go on.  I can't help but wonder if in the end will more damage will be done by restrictions taking the potential joys of life away from so many...I guess we'll all find out sooner or later.

And all we have to show for the lockdowns is more and more deaths. The lockdowns were sold to us as a cure-all, and that turned out to be bogus.
It's to flatten the curve, not eradicate the virus. We'll have to wait for a vaccine for the later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 25, 2020, 11:23:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 25, 2020, 11:22:26 PMIt's to flatten the curve, not eradicate the virus. We'll have to wait for a vaccine for the later.

The curve never got very flat. I'm sure actual cases are declining now, but the curve was very steep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 25, 2020, 11:39:14 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 25, 2020, 09:50:42 PM
As far as what you say as to church being needed now more than ever, that's something that I personally agree with, and I think it's clear, or at least should be, that what's happening now is part of the progression outlined in the Book of Revelation. I think this a really interesting topic, but given the forum guidelines, is probably something that should be taken to PM if we want to discuss in detail.
Yeah, it's freaky.  There are even locusts in East Africa right now.  It's made me do a lot of self-reflection on my religious/political beliefs and wonder what's next.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 11:13:17 PM
For what it's worth I don't think many public officials have sold it that way.  They way I've always seen it stated the goal was/is to not have the hospitals overwhelmed with sick.  It's mostly regular people who seem to think that all these measures had the goal of outright stopping the illness and death.  Yeah, isolation probably saved some given the hospitals haven't been overwhelmed.  But if things don't start open up the isolation will have start to have economic effects that will damage lives that can't be undone...for some that's already happened. 
There seem to be many people that think strictly in a binary - "either X can happen, or it can't", and they seem to have a hard time when it's not possible to stop all X but people propose policies to reduce it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on April 26, 2020, 01:12:46 AM
Quote from: oscar on April 25, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 25, 2020, 06:42:27 PM
Or even hold a Zoom conference.

Or, for the less tech-savvy, a drive-in service with the church using a low-power radio transmitter so churchgoers can listen on their car radios. Drive-in services have been hassled by some local authorities, but hopefully the Attorney General's forceful intervention in those cases will stop that nonsense.

Not a complete substitute for services with hugs and other personal contact (like what I'm accustomed to), but it will help the church keep its members alive until this all blows over.

Several churches in Western Washington have moved to drive-in sermons and it's had little opposition. But there's churches in Eastern Washington where reckless indoor sermons are being held and have to be broken up (but the county sheriffs are not complying).

I should note that a single church choir practice (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/washington-choir-practice-coronavirus-deaths/index.html) in Mount Vernon, WA resulted in a superspreader event that killed 2 people and infected 45 others (or more). The community at large does not need superspreader events.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 26, 2020, 01:17:15 AM
Hawaii is effectively deporting visitors who violate quarantine and can't afford a ticket out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox40.com/news/national-and-world-news/the-hawaii-tourism-authority-is-now-paying-for-visitors-to-leave/amp/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.

I've been pretty fortunate to be able to nominally retain my job, but stay home and still get paid regularly, so I don't have to stress about money. That's not a luxury everyone has. But since I'm at home, I've been having 36 extra hours a week to spend on my priorities instead of the priorities of some tie-wearing dipshit. Even though I can't go out to restaurants or hang out with friends in person, I've actually gotten to socialize with them more through using technology like Discord group chats, since we don't have to work around each others' work schedules now.

I learned how to install light fixtures on my house. I set up the pool for the summer. I've been catching up on things with my small business that I let slip for lack of time and energy. I've been less stressed so I'm not getting on my wife's nerves as often.

If instead of treating it like you're in jail, you treat it as you getting a break from the daily grind of life, it's really not so bad. I've been happier over the last couple of months than I have been in years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 26, 2020, 04:53:59 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 26, 2020, 01:17:15 AM
Hawaii is effectively deporting visitors who violate quarantine and can't afford a ticket out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox40.com/news/national-and-world-news/the-hawaii-tourism-authority-is-now-paying-for-visitors-to-leave/amp/

Yeah, I wonder how many of those people who bought cheap air tickets, expecting a nice "corona vacation", knew before they left the mainland that they were in for fourteen days stuck indoors as soon as they arrived (and even after they emerged from quarantine, getting the "stink eye" and even slashed tires from the locals). Not that I have much sympathy for them, but I wonder how well the quarantine policy was publicized, before these stories started coming out.

Hawaii normally gets a lot of tourist traffic from Japan and elsewhere in Asia, so it's not just the mainland U.S. that it's worried about. It still is a bit unexpected that Hawaii, which basically makes its living off high levels of "non-essential travel", would so drastically cut off the tourism trade.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 09:28:31 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 25, 2020, 06:42:27 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:

At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?

As someone who is religious, but does not attend church: you just to lean into your faith a bit. If you're actually facing sickness, and death, you definitely should not be near other people. That will cause further sickness and death. If your fear is strong, that's totally understandable, but why not simply call your pastor or bishop? Or even hold a Zoom conference. Churches near me have been ordered shut by the State of Washington, but have largely moved to electronic sermons. Maybe we can't touch and hold each other, but for the sake of everyone else (religious or not), that's probably a good thing.

I'd argue that religion is only partly defined by one's personal faith and belief system, but is also–perhaps moreso–defined by one's corporate acts of worship.  It's pretty hard to imagine, for example, the Roman Catholic religion without mass, the taking of Communion, confession and absolution, etc, etc.  Hymns were meant to be sung corporately, the Bible was written to be read publicly, the distribution of the bread and wine at Communion either (depending on your denomination) symbolizes or even carries on Jesus' giving of himself for his followers, and so on and so forth.

Yet our local Roman Catholic diocese was one of the first to close its parishes to worship, livestream masses, and encourage people to stay home. 

Pastors who are continuing to hold live services are putting their members at risk and should be cited by the local authorities.  And there should be no exception carved out in local regulations for them.  And this is coming from a regular church-goer whose dad is a retired pastor...and is saftely worshiping from home as well.


Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it.

LOL.  It's been a tough...<checks calendar>....six weeks.  Hang in there champ!  Your bravery will be noted in the history books.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 26, 2020, 09:58:38 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.

I've been pretty fortunate to be able to nominally retain my job, but stay home and still get paid regularly, so I don't have to stress about money. That's not a luxury everyone has. But since I'm at home, I've been having 36 extra hours a week to spend on my priorities instead of the priorities of some tie-wearing dipshit. Even though I can't go out to restaurants or hang out with friends in person, I've actually gotten to socialize with them more through using technology like Discord group chats, since we don't have to work around each others' work schedules now.

I learned how to install light fixtures on my house. I set up the pool for the summer. I've been catching up on things with my small business that I let slip for lack of time and energy. I've been less stressed so I'm not getting on my wife's nerves as often.

If instead of treating it like you're in jail, you treat it as you getting a break from the daily grind of life, it's really not so bad. I've been happier over the last couple of months than I have been in years.

In my case I haven't missed a day from work since being at home isn't an option for me.  To that end it's been soul crushingly boring at work as opposed to the normal fast moving hectic.  That slow pace coupled with the fact that I really don't have many options on off hours like I normally do is what sucks most.

I have read a lot since late March and I've been catching on highway page writing.  Normally on days off I would go hike, for now I've added extra running and started cycling again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
I agree that a mindset of looking to make lemonade out of a lemon is more helpful in fighting lockdown blues.

At this stage, however, as compliance with stay-at-home restrictions decays, I am becoming increasingly concerned that there may be no overlap between what we are willing to do to fight the virus and what we need to do to defeat it.

In Kansas, for example, the statewide stay-at-home order expires on May 3 but our governor has admitted that we don't have the testing capacity to reopen.  The news coverage I have seen has been less than lucid on the legal aspects involved, but it seems her emergency management powers do not allow further extension of the order or the underlying state of emergency, and declaring a new state of emergency would jeopardize federal COVID-19 funding.

Meanwhile, Sedgwick County recently hosted a conference of big players from the restaurant, hotel, tourism, and fitness-club sectors of the local economy to get a sense of what would be required to reopen.  Some common themes emerged:  those that serve the public directly want indemnification in the event they are found to be venues of fresh outbreaks, and many of them adhere to business models that require occupant densities that are not currently allowed by social distancing rules.

As a large share of restaurants remain closed, a lot of weight has fallen on the few that remain open for takeaway business, and wait times for order pickup have increased greatly.  On Friday night, we ordered a pizza over the telephone and were promised it would be ready in 25 to 30 minutes; in actuality, it took an hour and fifteen minutes (about 40 of which were spent waiting outside in the parking lot on a chilly day) before it was ready.  Saturday night's dinner was Popeye's, entailing thirty minutes spent waiting in the drive-thru.  Several of those present at the county's reopening conference noted that once you get a critical mass of people in an area, no matter how large it is, they start clumping together and social distancing collapses.

I don't know what's next--people trucking on through a second wave as the bodies stack up like cordwood?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 26, 2020, 12:45:31 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
At this stage, however, as compliance with stay-at-home restrictions decays, I am becoming increasingly concerned that there may be no overlap between what we are willing to do to fight the virus and what we need to do to defeat it.
Would we be able to defeat it at all?
Genie is out of the bottle, and we're dealing with something that is here to stay. In 2050 it will be just another cold virus - one out of 5 (4 until 2019) regular cold coronaviruses. We're just not immune to it yet. Kids are normally accumulating immunity in childhood while getting sick - or even seriously sick -  of relatively benign viruses. But look, kids are surviving this virus... as we did survive our share of childhood colds.
So my prediction is that everyone will get this virus within the next 3-5 years, 1% or so will die of it, the rest of us will accommodate and live on. Just pray you're not in that 1%.
So it makes limited sense to quarantine - flatten the curve and carry on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 26, 2020, 12:54:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2020, 12:45:31 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
At this stage, however, as compliance with stay-at-home restrictions decays, I am becoming increasingly concerned that there may be no overlap between what we are willing to do to fight the virus and what we need to do to defeat it.
Would we be able to defeat it at all?
Genie is out of the bottle, and we're dealing with something that is here to stay. In 2050 it will be just another cold virus - one out of 5 (4 until 2019) regular cold coronaviruses. We're just not immune to it yet. Kids are normally accumulating immunity in childhood while getting sick - or even seriously sick -  of relatively benign viruses. But look, kids are surviving this virus... as we did survive our share of childhood colds.
So my prediction is that everyone will get this virus within the next 3-5 years, 1% or so will die of it, the rest of us will accommodate and live on. Just pray you're not in that 1%.
So it makes limited sense to quarantine - flatten the curve and carry on.

We're not dealing with the 1918 flu every year. This one will go away, just like the others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 12:59:53 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 26, 2020, 12:54:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2020, 12:45:31 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
At this stage, however, as compliance with stay-at-home restrictions decays, I am becoming increasingly concerned that there may be no overlap between what we are willing to do to fight the virus and what we need to do to defeat it.
Would we be able to defeat it at all?
Genie is out of the bottle, and we're dealing with something that is here to stay. In 2050 it will be just another cold virus - one out of 5 (4 until 2019) regular cold coronaviruses. We're just not immune to it yet. Kids are normally accumulating immunity in childhood while getting sick - or even seriously sick -  of relatively benign viruses. But look, kids are surviving this virus... as we did survive our share of childhood colds.
So my prediction is that everyone will get this virus within the next 3-5 years, 1% or so will die of it, the rest of us will accommodate and live on. Just pray you're not in that 1%.
So it makes limited sense to quarantine - flatten the curve and carry on.

We're not dealing with the 1918 flu every year. This one will go away, just like the others.
H1N1 is still around though. The pandemic is over, but the virus is still here, just mutated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on April 26, 2020, 01:00:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 09:09:42 PM
I'd argue that religion is only partly defined by one's personal faith and belief system, but is also–perhaps moreso–defined by one's corporate acts of worship.  It's pretty hard to imagine, for example, the Roman Catholic religion without mass, the taking of Communion, confession and absolution, etc, etc.  Hymns were meant to be sung corporately, the Bible was written to be read publicly, the distribution of the bread and wine at Communion either (depending on your denomination) symbolizes or even carries on Jesus' giving of himself for his followers, and so on and so forth.

I'm reminded of back when my wife and I had a housemate from Saudi Arabia, a student at WSU.  One day in conversation, religious intolerance in that nation came up.  He stated that there is freedom of religion in Saudi Arabia, because religion is about what you personally believe in your heart, and the Saudi government can't stop you believing in your heart whatever you want.  That's ridiculous!  Religion is so much more than that.  It's actions.  It's practice.  It's traditions.  It's sights and sounds and smells and even peculiar vocabulary.  Take all the "extra" stuff away, and what you're left with is not religion.

Calling someone on the phone or seeing them on a screen is just not the same.  A human being with another human being is what it takes to make a real human connection.  Imagine if my wife died suddenly, and I were left to raise three sons without her.  I'd be livid if having a funeral were against the law–not allowed to cry with our brothers and sisters from church;  not allowed to sing songs of sorrow and comfort and joy with others who have lost loved ones;  not allowed to have our pastor and best friends lay their hands on my back and pray for me;  not allowed to have a potluck dinner of dishes prepared by the same ladies my wife cooked for when they were home with newborns or laid up from a recent hospital stay;  not allowed to look right into people's eyes and find no words to fill the silence;  not allowed to begin moving on with life by getting out of the house and having real conversations with other people...

This is literally what people are being deprived of.  My parents just received a dis-invitation to a wedding.  That couple will not get to celebrate what is perhaps the happiest day of their life in church.  No walking down the aisle past family and friends, no bridesmaids looking uncomfortable in their dresses, no lighting of the unity candle, no grinning at the ring bearer grabbing his crotch for the whole congregation to see, no cheering when they kiss, no pastor exhorting the whole congregation to support their marriage, no receiving line full of people to offer sage advice, no big family pictures out on the lawn, no dance, no reception, no rice thrown on their heads as they make their way to the car in the parking lot, none of that.  What they will have lost is a lot more than just a few Sundays in the pew, but a whole day of memories that might have been.

For what it's worth, tomorrow will be my family's seventh week in a row without going to church and without having our weekly "small group" meeting.  Our pastor records a sermon on Thursday afternoons, they air online Sunday mornings, and our family–along with most others from the church–watches them at home.  I usually pick out a couple of songs to play on the guitar and a Bible passage to read, and one of us prays out loud.  But that's just not the same thing.  This morning was the first time we musicians have gotten together at church since mid-March.  We did sound check, camera setup, and all that good stuff in preparation for recording two songs per week to go along with the online sermons.  While it felt great to see my friends again and to play songs of the faith again, it simply isn't the same when there's no one out in the congregation to sing along.  It felt more like making a music video than it did a worship experience, and I'm afraid that will be the case on recording day too.  And I'm also afraid that, for those at home, it will feel more like watching a music video than it will a worship experience.

I realize that this thread isn't supposed to be about religion, but I think it's simply illustrative of what gets taken away from us by mandatory self-isolation.  We lose each other.  What helps keep life moving along is to sit on your friends' couch and talk about work, joke about how your kids drive you nuts, self-diagnose your cars' latest mechanical issues, make fun of whatever political party is on the other side of the fence from you, eat sloppy joes and ice cream, and watch the game.  What keeps us sane is to roll our eyes at other people's kids, chuckle at wondering how that woman managed to squeeze into that dress, bite your tongue when your friend is being controlling with his wife and then mention it to your own wife later that day, and feel old when the college freshmen in front of you in line at Wendy's all have their noses buried in their smartphones.

We're sacrificing life in the name of staying alive.  And I'm about done with it.

Honestly, great post. My church is in the same boat, broadcasting services online and prerecording sermons, and I agree it's not the same. All my friends are at church (I'm homeschooled), and not being around them for the last month or so is not great. At least I get to play piano for my youth group when they broadcast their midweek messages with part of the band, but still, like you said, not the same. I can't wait for this to be over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2020, 01:12:46 AM
reckless indoor sermons

What, exactly, is a reckless indoor sermon? assuming the church had implemented measures to keep the congregants more than six feet apart during the delivery of said sermon?

Before the Kansas ban was changed to 10 people or more, my parents' church was already taking steps to comply with social distancing measures during worship.  Why is it unthinkable that religious services could be held responsibly?  It's simply a crock that you can easily go find people congregating at liquor stores and grocery stores and Wal-Mart, yet it's illegal for people to congregate in an activity guaranteed freedom by the First Amendment of the Constitution.  Why should we assume churches can't take the same sort of precautionary measures as grocery stores?

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.

I've been pretty fortunate to be able to nominally retain my job, but stay home and still get paid regularly, so I don't have to stress about money. That's not a luxury everyone has. But since I'm at home, I've been having 36 extra hours a week to spend on my priorities instead of the priorities of some tie-wearing dipshit. Even though I can't go out to restaurants or hang out with friends in person, I've actually gotten to socialize with them more through using technology like Discord group chats, since we don't have to work around each others' work schedules now.

I learned how to install light fixtures on my house. I set up the pool for the summer. I've been catching up on things with my small business that I let slip for lack of time and energy. I've been less stressed so I'm not getting on my wife's nerves as often.

If instead of treating it like you're in jail, you treat it as you getting a break from the daily grind of life, it's really not so bad. I've been happier over the last couple of months than I have been in years.

My "daily grind of life" hasn't changed much.  My work computer is set up in my bedroom instead of at the office, but I still do the same job as before, and I still work 40 hours a week at it.  The only extra time I've gotten is the 15-minute drive to work and the 15-minute drive back home.  All that's changed for me, really, is that I never get to see anyone outside my own family anymore.  And my wife and I couldn't go out for our anniversary on Wednesday because, well, where would we go?

I'm fortunate enough to live in a city and state that hasn't banned the mere act of going outside.  I can still go for a walk around the block at the end of my lunch break, for example.  But, still, the governing authorities have decided where you should be allowed to go and where you shouldn't.  Sorry if it's hard to consider that more like a "break" and less like "jail".

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 12:59:53 PM
H1N1 is still around though. The pandemic is over, but the virus is still here, just mutated.

More to the point, there were an estimated 60.8 million cases of swine flu in the USA during the 2009-10 season, and I don't remember hearing anyone even suggesting that we shut everything down.




What happens if COVID becomes like the flu, in which we end up having a "season" of it on a regular basis, and against which vaccinations have limited effectiveness due to mutation?  Does anyone think it would be prudent to shut the country down for a couple of months every year?  And if not, then why is it prudent now?

And let's not take lightly the fact that we are now setting the precedent for the government "prohibiting the free exercise [of religion]; ... the right of the people peaceably to assemble".  That is not a small thing.  The argument "it's a time of crisis, and it's only temporary" is ridiculous:  wouldn't it be precisely in a time of crisis that the government might seek to strip its opposition of the right to assemble? and wouldn't it be the first lie out of their lips to say "it's temporary"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2020, 01:12:46 AM
reckless indoor sermons

What, exactly, is a reckless indoor sermon? assuming the church had implemented measures to keep the congregants more than six feet apart during the delivery of said sermon?


You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 26, 2020, 01:18:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM


What happens if COVID becomes like the flu, in which we end up having a "season" of it on a regular basis, and against which vaccinations have limited effectiveness due to mutation?  Does anyone think it would be prudent to shut the country down for a couple of months every year?  And if not, then why is it prudent now?
Flu is a new disease pretty much every year, it comes from the natural reservoir of waterfowl.
COVID, I suspect, will be returning annually - but if you had it once, you have some level of immunity, so things will be much milder. Like these guys: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html  (please read the link - it is NOT about covid, it is about older versions)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2020, 01:12:46 AM
reckless indoor sermons

What, exactly, is a reckless indoor sermon? assuming the church had implemented measures to keep the congregants more than six feet apart during the delivery of said sermon?

Before the Kansas ban was changed to 10 people or more, my parents' church was already taking steps to comply with social distancing measures during worship.  Why is it unthinkable that religious services could be held responsibly?  It's simply a crock that you can easily go find people congregating at liquor stores and grocery stores and Wal-Mart, yet it's illegal for people to congregate in an activity guaranteed freedom by the First Amendment of the Constitution.  Why should we assume churches can't take the same sort of precautionary measures as grocery stores?

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.

I've been pretty fortunate to be able to nominally retain my job, but stay home and still get paid regularly, so I don't have to stress about money. That's not a luxury everyone has. But since I'm at home, I've been having 36 extra hours a week to spend on my priorities instead of the priorities of some tie-wearing dipshit. Even though I can't go out to restaurants or hang out with friends in person, I've actually gotten to socialize with them more through using technology like Discord group chats, since we don't have to work around each others' work schedules now.

I learned how to install light fixtures on my house. I set up the pool for the summer. I've been catching up on things with my small business that I let slip for lack of time and energy. I've been less stressed so I'm not getting on my wife's nerves as often.

If instead of treating it like you're in jail, you treat it as you getting a break from the daily grind of life, it's really not so bad. I've been happier over the last couple of months than I have been in years.

My "daily grind of life" hasn't changed much.  My work computer is set up in my bedroom instead of at the office, but I still do the same job as before, and I still work 40 hours a week at it.  The only extra time I've gotten is the 15-minute drive to work and the 15-minute drive back home.  All that's changed for me, really, is that I never get to see anyone outside my own family anymore.  And my wife and I couldn't go out for our anniversary on Wednesday because, well, where would we go?

I'm fortunate enough to live in a city and state that hasn't banned the mere act of going outside.  I can still go for a walk around the block at the end of my lunch break, for example.  But, still, the governing authorities have decided where you should be allowed to go and where you shouldn't.  Sorry if it's hard to consider that more like a "break" and less like "jail".

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 12:59:53 PM
H1N1 is still around though. The pandemic is over, but the virus is still here, just mutated.

More to the point, there were an estimated 60.8 million cases of swine flu in the USA during the 2009-10 season, and I don't remember hearing anyone even suggesting that we shut everything down.




What happens if COVID becomes like the flu, in which we end up having a "season" of it on a regular basis, and against which vaccinations have limited effectiveness due to mutation?  Does anyone think it would be prudent to shut the country down for a couple of months every year?  And if not, then why is it prudent now?

And let's not take lightly the fact that we are now setting the precedent for the government "prohibiting the free exercise [of religion]; ... the right of the people peaceably to assemble".  That is not a small thing.  The argument "it's a time of crisis, and it's only temporary" is ridiculous:  wouldn't it be precisely in a time of crisis that the government might seek to strip its opposition of the right to assemble? and wouldn't it be the first lie out of their lips to say "it's temporary"?

The government has always had the right to put reasonable limitations on first amendment rights.  You think we are "now" setting the precedent?  You should probably look a little deeper into our history.

And the reason we didn't do this for the swine flu is because this is more deadly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 12:59:53 PM
H1N1 is still around though. The pandemic is over, but the virus is still here, just mutated.

More to the point, there were an estimated 60.8 million cases of swine flu in the USA during the 2009-10 season, and I don't remember hearing anyone even suggesting that we shut everything down.

The mortality rate of H1N1 was relatively low.  Of the 60.8 million cases in the USA there was reportedly 12,469 deaths.  Extrapolating that out, even if every single American got infected with H1N1 deaths would have been 67,333.  Even with extreme mitigation measures being imposed, coronavirus will almost certainly kill more than 67,333 Americans. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 26, 2020, 02:15:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.
...
If instead of treating it like you're in jail, you treat it as you getting a break from the daily grind of life, it's really not so bad. I've been happier over the last couple of months than I have been in years.
My "daily grind of life" hasn't changed much.  My work computer is set up in my bedroom instead of at the office, but I still do the same job as before, and I still work 40 hours a week at it.  The only extra time I've gotten is the 15-minute drive to work and the 15-minute drive back home.  All that's changed for me, really, is that I never get to see anyone outside my own family anymore.

I would suggest that you set up somewhere outside your bedroom, but that's probably already crossed your mind. I'm feeling for a lot of people during these times, but people that have to share work environments in crowded or multi-purpose rooms are near the top of the list. Waking up and going somewhere, anywhere, is hugely helpful for maintaining a sense of sanity and routine.

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
And my wife and I couldn't go out for our anniversary on Wednesday because, well, where would we go?
You could do what we did and sit in the drive-thru line at Chick-Fil-A for half an hour...  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PMBefore the Kansas ban was changed to 10 people or more, my parents' church was already taking steps to comply with social distancing measures during worship.  Why is it unthinkable that religious services could be held responsibly?  It's simply a crock that you can easily go find people congregating at liquor stores and grocery stores and Wal-Mart, yet it's illegal for people to congregate in an activity guaranteed freedom by the First Amendment of the Constitution.  Why should we assume churches can't take the same sort of precautionary measures as grocery stores?

Congregation at liquor stores, supermarkets, Walmart, etc. should not be happening.  That is pretty much why I am deferring a coolant drain and fill in my daily driver (this service is not overdue enough to justify a trip to Walmart to pick up antifreeze and distilled water) and trying to limit trips to Dillons as much as possible.  Why expose oneself unnecessarily to other people's poor impulse control?

As others have already noted, it is established judicial precedent that the exercise of First Amendment freedoms can be curtailed so long as the relevant measures survive strict scrutiny.  This is more or less what has happened in Kansas with the enjoining of the part of the governor's stay-at-home order that extends the ten-person gathering limit to religious services.  Churches, per the terms of the injunction, can host services with more than ten people, but there is a long list of specific requirements that generates an enormous compliance headache:  so many people per hundred square feet, separate entrance and exit, door control to enforce headcount limits, and so on.  I haven't heard of any Catholic or mainline Protestant denominations locally that are holding services under such conditions.

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PMI'm fortunate enough to live in a city and state that hasn't banned the mere act of going outside.  I can still go for a walk around the block at the end of my lunch break, for example.  But, still, the governing authorities have decided where you should be allowed to go and where you shouldn't.  Sorry if it's hard to consider that more like a "break" and less like "jail".

I don't know of any US jurisdiction that has forbidden people to go outside for exercise.  I've found it helpful to walk twice a day (not just once) to fight cabin fever.

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PMMore to the point, there were an estimated 60.8 million cases of swine flu in the USA during the 2009-10 season, and I don't remember hearing anyone even suggesting that we shut everything down.

It didn't have anywhere near the propensity to fill ICUs that COVID-19 does.  People were very nervous about it because of its genetic similarities to 1918 flu, but it turned out to be a paper tiger.

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PMWhat happens if COVID becomes like the flu, in which we end up having a "season" of it on a regular basis, and against which vaccinations have limited effectiveness due to mutation?  Does anyone think it would be prudent to shut the country down for a couple of months every year?  And if not, then why is it prudent now?

If we are really lucky, it will mutate into a form we can treat on more or less the same basis as seasonal flu.  We are not there yet.

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PMAnd let's not take lightly the fact that we are now setting the precedent for the government "prohibiting the free exercise [of religion]; ... the right of the people peaceably to assemble".  That is not a small thing.  The argument "it's a time of crisis, and it's only temporary" is ridiculous:  wouldn't it be precisely in a time of crisis that the government might seek to strip its opposition of the right to assemble? and wouldn't it be the first lie out of their lips to say "it's temporary"?

Health emergencies are qualitatively different because they are time-limited and necessity is a matter of scientific proof.  This is part of the reason precedents in Kansas, such as denying a habeas petition filed by a chronic gonorrhea patient in jail (at a time when antibiotics were not available to cure gonorrhea), are almost a century old and still good.

The case of Mary Mallon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon) ("Typhoid Mary"), who died after 23 years in forcible quarantine, is instructive.  Once it was scientifically established that she was spreading disease, and she refused to have her gallbladder removed so that she would no longer be a typhoid carrier (as was her option), there was no question of setting her loose on society again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 26, 2020, 02:50:08 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2020, 02:15:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.
...
If instead of treating it like you're in jail, you treat it as you getting a break from the daily grind of life, it's really not so bad. I've been happier over the last couple of months than I have been in years.
My "daily grind of life" hasn't changed much.  My work computer is set up in my bedroom instead of at the office, but I still do the same job as before, and I still work 40 hours a week at it.  The only extra time I've gotten is the 15-minute drive to work and the 15-minute drive back home.  All that's changed for me, really, is that I never get to see anyone outside my own family anymore.

I would suggest that you set up somewhere outside your bedroom, but that's probably already crossed your mind. I'm feeling for a lot of people during these times, but people that have to share work environments in crowded or multi-purpose rooms are near the top of the list. Waking up and going somewhere, anywhere, is hugely helpful for maintaining a sense of sanity and routine.

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
And my wife and I couldn't go out for our anniversary on Wednesday because, well, where would we go?
You could do what we did and sit in the drive-thru line at Chick-Fil-A for half an hour...  :)

We at least ordered tri-tip and paid for it to be delivered for ours.  I couldn't fathom being that level of ghetto on an anniversary...really that applies to any fast food IMO.  Plus Chick-Fil-A might be the most overrated fast food restaurant out there out right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 26, 2020, 03:11:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 26, 2020, 02:50:08 PM
We at least ordered tri-tip and paid for it to be delivered for ours.  I couldn't fathom being that level of ghetto on an anniversary...really that applies to any fast food IMO.  Plus Chick-Fil-A might be the most overrated fast food restaurant out there out right now. 

Heh, it was a running joke in our family that my parents would have McDonald's for their anniversary dinner. Of course that has not happened for many years, but when my brother and I were kids, our family vacations were always in August and were almost always to the north, often to Canada, and there was more than one time that on my parents' anniversary we found ourselves in the middle of nowhere with the only thing around being a McDonald's, so we ate there.

I was going to give them a 20-piece McNuggets last August as a joke on their 50th anniversary, but Dad died a little over a month before that date rolled around. As you can imagine, I did not make McDonald's jokes with my mom when the actual day arrived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 26, 2020, 03:26:31 PM
In our on-line service today, the pastor said she didn't like worshiping that way, with no one in physical attendance.  But she is accepting it so that when restrictions are lifted, we can ALL return.  If we recklessly congregated together now, it is a virtual certainty that some of our congregation has it (maybe asymptomatic) and will pass it on.  And the most vulnerable in the church might not survive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 

The same is true of the grocery store.  I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
The government has always had the right to put reasonable limitations on first amendment rights.  You think we are "now" setting the precedent?  You should probably look a little deeper into our history.

Yes, and I realized that as I was typing it.  But I kept it in my post because two precedents are more than one precedent.  We could have instead set the opposite precedent of deciding the other way.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
And the reason we didn't do this for the swine flu is because this is more deadly.

Quote from: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
The mortality rate of H1N1 was relatively low.

Is that the reason we're doing it now, though??  I thought the reason for the shutdowns was to prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and flooding the hospitals.  Now you're telling me it's to prevent deaths.  Which is it?

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Congregation at liquor stores, supermarkets, Walmart, etc. should not be happening.  That is pretty much why I am deferring a coolant drain and fill in my daily driver (this service is not overdue enough to justify a trip to Walmart to pick up antifreeze and distilled water) and trying to limit trips to Dillons as much as possible.  Why expose oneself unnecessarily to other people's poor impulse control?

I still consider the risk of contracting the virus at the grocery store to be quite small.  So I don't really see going shopping as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to anything.  Certainly not much more than I consider it as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to myriad other airborne respiratory diseases that are always going around any other year.  But to answer the question more directly, one might choose to go to the store in order to feel some sense of normalcy by doing a normal routine activity.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
I don't know of any US jurisdiction that has forbidden people to go outside for exercise.

I don't either, but I know several people who live in countries that do prohibit such.  The first people we heard that sort of news from live in South Africa.  I know there have been such orders passed in Italy, although I don't know anyone who lives there.  Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Health emergencies are qualitatively different because they are time-limited and necessity is a matter of scientific proof.

If it were a matter of scientific proof, then there would be no argument.  Science does not prove that the government should have the right to prohibit people gathering and practicing their religion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 04:31:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 

The same is true of the grocery store.  I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
The government has always had the right to put reasonable limitations on first amendment rights.  You think we are "now" setting the precedent?  You should probably look a little deeper into our history.

Yes, and I realized that as I was typing it.  But I kept it in my post because two precedents are more than one precedent.  We could have instead set the opposite precedent of deciding the other way.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
And the reason we didn't do this for the swine flu is because this is more deadly.

Quote from: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
The mortality rate of H1N1 was relatively low.

Is that the reason we're doing it now, though??  I thought the reason for the shutdowns was to prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and flooding the hospitals.  Now you're telling me it's to prevent deaths.  Which is it?

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Congregation at liquor stores, supermarkets, Walmart, etc. should not be happening.  That is pretty much why I am deferring a coolant drain and fill in my daily driver (this service is not overdue enough to justify a trip to Walmart to pick up antifreeze and distilled water) and trying to limit trips to Dillons as much as possible.  Why expose oneself unnecessarily to other people's poor impulse control?

I still consider the risk of contracting the virus at the grocery store to be quite small.  So I don't really see going shopping as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to anything.  Certainly not much more than I consider it as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to myriad other airborne respiratory diseases that are always going around any other year.  But to answer the question more directly, one might choose to go to the store in order to feel some sense of normalcy by doing a normal routine activity.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
I don't know of any US jurisdiction that has forbidden people to go outside for exercise.

I don't either, but I know several people who live in countries that do prohibit such.  The first people we heard that sort of news from live in South Africa.  I know there have been such orders passed in Italy, although I don't know anyone who lives there.  Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Health emergencies are qualitatively different because they are time-limited and necessity is a matter of scientific proof.

If it were a matter of scientific proof, then there would be no argument.  Science does not prove that the government should have the right to prohibit people gathering and practicing their religion.
You don't need church to live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 26, 2020, 04:39:38 PM
CDC has added 6 new possible symptoms to it's list.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-adds-six-new-possible-coronavirus-symptoms-2020-04-25/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-adds-six-new-possible-coronavirus-symptoms-2020-04-25/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 04:48:02 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
I agree that a mindset of looking to make lemonade out of a lemon is more helpful in fighting lockdown blues.

At this stage, however, as compliance with stay-at-home restrictions decays, I am becoming increasingly concerned that there may be no overlap between what we are willing to do to fight the virus and what we need to do to defeat it.

I think most people would be willing to comply with restrictions and make the most of it. However, there are rich fuckers in this country that are sad because they'll make only one million dollars this year instead of ten million, so they're spending money to agitate people who don't know any better into fighting the lockdowns.

The unfortunate thing about the United States of America is that it has turned from a free country to a for-profit enterprise, where life doesn't matter, only profit. We may soon get to see how much profit a dead body turns. My suspicion is not much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 26, 2020, 04:52:16 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 04:31:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 

The same is true of the grocery store.  I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
The government has always had the right to put reasonable limitations on first amendment rights.  You think we are "now" setting the precedent?  You should probably look a little deeper into our history.

Yes, and I realized that as I was typing it.  But I kept it in my post because two precedents are more than one precedent.  We could have instead set the opposite precedent of deciding the other way.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
And the reason we didn't do this for the swine flu is because this is more deadly.

Quote from: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
The mortality rate of H1N1 was relatively low.

Is that the reason we're doing it now, though??  I thought the reason for the shutdowns was to prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and flooding the hospitals.  Now you're telling me it's to prevent deaths.  Which is it?

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Congregation at liquor stores, supermarkets, Walmart, etc. should not be happening.  That is pretty much why I am deferring a coolant drain and fill in my daily driver (this service is not overdue enough to justify a trip to Walmart to pick up antifreeze and distilled water) and trying to limit trips to Dillons as much as possible.  Why expose oneself unnecessarily to other people's poor impulse control?

I still consider the risk of contracting the virus at the grocery store to be quite small.  So I don't really see going shopping as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to anything.  Certainly not much more than I consider it as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to myriad other airborne respiratory diseases that are always going around any other year.  But to answer the question more directly, one might choose to go to the store in order to feel some sense of normalcy by doing a normal routine activity.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
I don't know of any US jurisdiction that has forbidden people to go outside for exercise.

I don't either, but I know several people who live in countries that do prohibit such.  The first people we heard that sort of news from live in South Africa.  I know there have been such orders passed in Italy, although I don't know anyone who lives there.  Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Health emergencies are qualitatively different because they are time-limited and necessity is a matter of scientific proof.

If it were a matter of scientific proof, then there would be no argument.  Science does not prove that the government should have the right to prohibit people gathering and practicing their religion.
You don't need church to live.

I used to say the same thing to my Grandpa when I was about your age just to piss him off, it was very successful.  Suffice to say there are A TON of people who would disagree with that statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 26, 2020, 04:59:42 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 04:31:50 PM
You don't need church to live.

(https://st2.depositphotos.com/1340907/8260/v/450/depositphotos_82602484-stock-illustration-confetti-pieces-and-winner-text.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 05:13:24 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 26, 2020, 04:52:16 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 04:31:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 

The same is true of the grocery store.  I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
The government has always had the right to put reasonable limitations on first amendment rights.  You think we are "now" setting the precedent?  You should probably look a little deeper into our history.

Yes, and I realized that as I was typing it.  But I kept it in my post because two precedents are more than one precedent.  We could have instead set the opposite precedent of deciding the other way.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
And the reason we didn't do this for the swine flu is because this is more deadly.

Quote from: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
The mortality rate of H1N1 was relatively low.

Is that the reason we're doing it now, though??  I thought the reason for the shutdowns was to prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and flooding the hospitals.  Now you're telling me it's to prevent deaths.  Which is it?

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Congregation at liquor stores, supermarkets, Walmart, etc. should not be happening.  That is pretty much why I am deferring a coolant drain and fill in my daily driver (this service is not overdue enough to justify a trip to Walmart to pick up antifreeze and distilled water) and trying to limit trips to Dillons as much as possible.  Why expose oneself unnecessarily to other people's poor impulse control?

I still consider the risk of contracting the virus at the grocery store to be quite small.  So I don't really see going shopping as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to anything.  Certainly not much more than I consider it as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to myriad other airborne respiratory diseases that are always going around any other year.  But to answer the question more directly, one might choose to go to the store in order to feel some sense of normalcy by doing a normal routine activity.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
I don't know of any US jurisdiction that has forbidden people to go outside for exercise.

I don't either, but I know several people who live in countries that do prohibit such.  The first people we heard that sort of news from live in South Africa.  I know there have been such orders passed in Italy, although I don't know anyone who lives there.  Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Health emergencies are qualitatively different because they are time-limited and necessity is a matter of scientific proof.

If it were a matter of scientific proof, then there would be no argument.  Science does not prove that the government should have the right to prohibit people gathering and practicing their religion.
You don't need church to live.

I used to say the same thing to my Grandpa when I was about your age just to piss him off, it was very successful.  Suffice to say there are A TON of people who would disagree with that statement.
Lots of people need religion to live, but actually going to church is not always necessary (especially during a pandemic).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 05:43:31 PM
Religion is beyond the remit of this forum, and discussion of it is against the forum rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 26, 2020, 05:47:52 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 04:48:02 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
I agree that a mindset of looking to make lemonade out of a lemon is more helpful in fighting lockdown blues.

At this stage, however, as compliance with stay-at-home restrictions decays, I am becoming increasingly concerned that there may be no overlap between what we are willing to do to fight the virus and what we need to do to defeat it.

I think most people would be willing to comply with restrictions and make the most of it. However, there are rich fuckers in this country that are sad because they'll make only one million dollars this year instead of ten million, so they're spending money to agitate people who don't know any better into fighting the lockdowns.

The unfortunate thing about the United States of America is that it has turned from a free country to a for-profit enterprise, where life doesn't matter, only profit. We may soon get to see how much profit a dead body turns. My suspicion is not much.

"If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population."  - Ebenezer Scrooge

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 26, 2020, 06:06:25 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 25, 2020, 06:13:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 25, 2020, 05:14:27 PM
  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all (https://doh.sd.gov/news/coronavirus.aspx#updates). Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and the city is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.

South Dakota's major problem has nothing to do with retail businesses or church services or anything like that. The hotspots in South Dakota are meat processing plants. The governor there has taken a reasonable approach to the situation, and their economy will rebound faster than other states that are imposing more draconian restrictions.

Kentucky has long been compared with Tennessee for a lot of reasons. Tennessee eats our lunch economically. They were well behind us in ordering businesses to be closed, and are reopening faster. If Kentucky wasn't already far behind Tennessee, it's going to be a lot worse because there's no reopening in sight here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 06:08:58 PM
I think Kentucky is starting to reopen businesses, but it's very slow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 06:12:46 PM
Also, some of the rural states are really eating everyone else's lunch in one regard: contact tracing apps.

Utah and North Dakota just put out apps that anyone can download that facilitate contact tracing. North Dakota's app has been picked up by South Dakota too. I downloaded both these apps, and they imply that they will be picked up by other states too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 06:16:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
The mortality rate of H1N1 was relatively low.
Is that the reason we're doing it now, though??  I thought the reason for the shutdowns was to prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and flooding the hospitals.  Now you're telling me it's to prevent deaths.  Which is it?

The result of a hospital system being overrun is more deaths as the hospitals can't adequately care for the influx of patients.  It's the whole scenario where two people need a ventilator but only one ventilator is available.  Once a health care system in a region gets overrun the mortality rate of the virus will increase in that region. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 26, 2020, 06:58:27 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

If there are less than 10 persons present, and you adhere to social distancing guidelines, who's to stop you?
But after all, and I hesitate to get into this, because we've already been reminded about the forum guidelines re: religion... but what is this time if not a time to prove inward reality and dependence, and not just dependence on the outwardly visible and social aspects of religion?
(And I'm happy to continue this conversation via PM, as I mentioned upthread.)

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Is that the reason we're doing it now, though??  I thought the reason for the shutdowns was to prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and flooding the hospitals.  Now you're telling me it's to prevent deaths.  Which is it?

It's both. It is to prevent deaths, but the #1 way to prevent deaths is to prevents the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Ultimately, if we go "back to normal" tomorrow, the healthcare system will get overwhelmed wherever a hot spot emerges, and that will be the case until there's a vaccine. Everyone would love for there to be a quick fix, but the nature of the situation dictates otherwise.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 26, 2020, 07:08:10 PM
If our hospitals are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, what about heart attack/stroke victims? Car accidents? They'll die too if there's nowhere to put them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 26, 2020, 07:19:07 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 26, 2020, 07:08:10 PM
If our hospitals are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, what about heart attack/stroke victims? Car accidents? They'll die too if there's nowhere to put them.

Already happening from what I'm hearing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 26, 2020, 07:25:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 

The same is true of the grocery store.  I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
The government has always had the right to put reasonable limitations on first amendment rights.  You think we are "now" setting the precedent?  You should probably look a little deeper into our history.

Yes, and I realized that as I was typing it.  But I kept it in my post because two precedents are more than one precedent.  We could have instead set the opposite precedent of deciding the other way.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 26, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
And the reason we didn't do this for the swine flu is because this is more deadly.

Quote from: tradephoric on April 26, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
The mortality rate of H1N1 was relatively low.

Is that the reason we're doing it now, though??  I thought the reason for the shutdowns was to prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and flooding the hospitals.  Now you're telling me it's to prevent deaths.  Which is it?

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Congregation at liquor stores, supermarkets, Walmart, etc. should not be happening.  That is pretty much why I am deferring a coolant drain and fill in my daily driver (this service is not overdue enough to justify a trip to Walmart to pick up antifreeze and distilled water) and trying to limit trips to Dillons as much as possible.  Why expose oneself unnecessarily to other people's poor impulse control?

I still consider the risk of contracting the virus at the grocery store to be quite small.  So I don't really see going shopping as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to anything.  Certainly not much more than I consider it as "exposing myself unnecessarily" to myriad other airborne respiratory diseases that are always going around any other year.  But to answer the question more directly, one might choose to go to the store in order to feel some sense of normalcy by doing a normal routine activity.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
I don't know of any US jurisdiction that has forbidden people to go outside for exercise.

I don't either, but I know several people who live in countries that do prohibit such.  The first people we heard that sort of news from live in South Africa.  I know there have been such orders passed in Italy, although I don't know anyone who lives there.  Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Health emergencies are qualitatively different because they are time-limited and necessity is a matter of scientific proof.

If it were a matter of scientific proof, then there would be no argument.  Science does not prove that the government should have the right to prohibit people gathering and practicing their religion.

So we should do like Walmart and limit the number of people inside at one time?  First 15 parishioners get a free sermon. Everyone after that gets free communion until we run out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 07:27:02 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 26, 2020, 07:08:10 PMIf our hospitals are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, what about heart attack/stroke victims? Car accidents? They'll die too if there's nowhere to put them.

Our ERs and ICUs have plenty of spare capacity, but there have been problems with patients trying to tough out serious symptoms at home because they fear there may not be a bed for them or that they may be exposed to COVID-19.  This has resulted in cases of appendicitis being caught late, stroke patients arriving past the window of effectiveness for clotbusters, and so on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:30:12 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 26, 2020, 07:27:02 PM

Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 26, 2020, 07:08:10 PMIf our hospitals are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, what about heart attack/stroke victims? Car accidents? They'll die too if there's nowhere to put them.

Our ERs and ICUs have plenty of spare capacity, but there have been problems with patients trying to tough out serious symptoms at home because they fear there may not be a bed for them or that they may be exposed to COVID-19.  This has resulted in cases of appendicitis being caught late, stroke patients arriving past the window of effectiveness for clotbusters, and so on.

I think that's an understandable reaction.  It's quite natural to avoid hospitals at a time when you believe them to be full of very contagious people.  One might figure his chances are better just toughing it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:33:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2020, 06:58:27 PM
But after all, and I hesitate to get into this, because we've already been reminded about the forum guidelines re: religion... but what is this time if not a time to prove inward reality and dependence, and not just dependence on the outwardly visible and social aspects of religion?
(And I'm happy to continue this conversation via PM, as I mentioned upthread.)

I'll keep my reply brief, as I was already stepping over the religion line (and the politics one) a while before the purple text appeared.  All I'll say in reply is that it was true and refreshing for the first few weeks, but now that "new car smell" of revitalized inner faith is quickly fading and I'm ready for "normal" again.  If you want to talk more about that, then I'm open to a PM conversation.  I'll leave it up to you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:35:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:30:12 PM
I think that's an understandable reaction.  It's quite natural to avoid hospitals at a time when you believe them to be full of very contagious people.  One might figure his chances are better just toughing it out.

I got a very intense pain in my heart when the lockdowns began, and it's only started to fade in the past couple days. It's the kind of pain that you usually experience for about a second when you feel fear, except it's lasted 5 weeks. I didn't see a doctor, because I wanted medical resources to be used for coronavirus patients instead.

My days are numbered. The average coronavirus patient has more years ahead.

I don't want society destroyed just to save me. When it's my time to go, and if destroying society is the only way to save me, I'd rather just go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 26, 2020, 07:25:07 PM
So we should do like Walmart and limit the number of people inside at one time?  First 15 parishioners get a free sermon. Everyone after that gets free communion until we run out.

Probably still wading in the shallows of political discussion here, but...  My preference would be to say something like "businesses, places of worship, and the like may re-open but must adopt special measures to ensure social distancing, limited personal contact, etc, etc, etc."  Then leave it up to them to figure out what those measures are, rather than dictating how they should operate.

I just don't get why it's assumed businesses (and churches and others) aren't able to make good decisions on their own.  Some grocery stores around here started implementing good ideas that weren't dictated by government, and that's a great thing.  I personally think some of them should remain after the crisis is over–specifically one-way aisles.  I think businesses (and churches and others) are quite capable of making good decisions like that while remaining open, especially now that were a couple of months in and a lot of good ideas have been percolating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 09:41:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:35:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:30:12 PM
I think that's an understandable reaction.  It's quite natural to avoid hospitals at a time when you believe them to be full of very contagious people.  One might figure his chances are better just toughing it out.

I got a very intense pain in my heart when the lockdowns began, and it's only started to fade in the past couple days. It's the kind of pain that you usually experience for about a second when you feel fear, except it's lasted 5 weeks. I didn't see a doctor, because I wanted medical resources to be used for coronavirus patients instead.

My days are numbered. The average coronavirus patient has more years ahead.

I don't want society destroyed just to save me. When it's my time to go, and if destroying society is the only way to save me, I'd rather just go.
Dude... what's wrong?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:44:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 09:41:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:35:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:30:12 PM
I think that's an understandable reaction.  It's quite natural to avoid hospitals at a time when you believe them to be full of very contagious people.  One might figure his chances are better just toughing it out.

I got a very intense pain in my heart when the lockdowns began, and it's only started to fade in the past couple days. It's the kind of pain that you usually experience for about a second when you feel fear, except it's lasted 5 weeks. I didn't see a doctor, because I wanted medical resources to be used for coronavirus patients instead.

My days are numbered. The average coronavirus patient has more years ahead.

I don't want society destroyed just to save me. When it's my time to go, and if destroying society is the only way to save me, I'd rather just go.
Dude... what's wrong?

I think the lockdowns destroyed my heart. I seriously thought I wasn't going to make it.

This has been among the roughest 5 weeks of my life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 09:45:59 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:44:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 09:41:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:35:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:30:12 PM
I think that's an understandable reaction.  It's quite natural to avoid hospitals at a time when you believe them to be full of very contagious people.  One might figure his chances are better just toughing it out.

I got a very intense pain in my heart when the lockdowns began, and it's only started to fade in the past couple days. It's the kind of pain that you usually experience for about a second when you feel fear, except it's lasted 5 weeks. I didn't see a doctor, because I wanted medical resources to be used for coronavirus patients instead.

My days are numbered. The average coronavirus patient has more years ahead.

I don't want society destroyed just to save me. When it's my time to go, and if destroying society is the only way to save me, I'd rather just go.
Dude... what's wrong?

I think the lockdowns destroyed my heart. I seriously thought I wasn't going to make it.

This has been among the roughest 5 weeks of my life.
Hope you're feeling better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:56:01 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 09:41:49 PM
Dude... what's wrong?

From the little bits of info I've picked up here and there, I'm guessing there are quite a few little things "wrong" with bandit957, but not a whole lot of major ones.  (Correct me if I'm wrong, of course.)  If one doesn't think his condition is serious, then it's quite natural to avoid medical treatment.  But something like "very intense pain in my heart" is a different beast.

I had sharp chest pain for several days last year, and it started just a couple of days after I had experienced shortness of breath and a racing heart during a backyard project.  I was very concerned, as anyone would be.  But then I realized the two were connected and no reason to be alarmed:  I had been digging post holes by hand in the middle of July, and I have a desk job.  So, (1) my stamina isn't what it was back when I did manual labor for a living, and I had started to get heat exhaustion and dehydration by the time afternoon rolled around.  Then, later, (2) those chest muscles I hadn't used in ages were sore, so just breathing or sneezing or whatever was starting to cause them pain.  Basically, my "heart" symptoms were just the product of doing hard work while out of shape.

It's possible Bandit957 similarly decided that what he was experiencing wasn't really likely to be a serious heart condition that required medical attention.  Most things like that, after all, aren't.  However, his comment about destroying society by saving him makes me think otherwise.

Bandit957:  Seriously, if you're honestly concerned about your heart, then go see someone.  Around 10% of people who get a heart attack die from it.  The survival rate for COVID-19 is much higher.  You are the more critical patient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 26, 2020, 09:59:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:33:34 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2020, 06:58:27 PM
But after all, and I hesitate to get into this, because we've already been reminded about the forum guidelines re: religion... but what is this time if not a time to prove inward reality and dependence, and not just dependence on the outwardly visible and social aspects of religion?
(And I'm happy to continue this conversation via PM, as I mentioned upthread.)
I'll keep my reply brief, as I was already stepping over the religion line (and the politics one) a while before the purple text appeared.  All I'll say in reply is that it was true and refreshing for the first few weeks, but now that "new car smell" of revitalized inner faith is quickly fading and I'm ready for "normal" again.  If you want to talk more about that, then I'm open to a PM conversation.  I'll leave it up to you.

OK, I get that, and I'm as ready as anyone else to put this in the history books too. But nothing this large in scale happens without good reason, so I feel it's important to be prepared to accept whatever comes. I could go on various tangents from there, but that's as good a spot as any to leave it, as far as I'm concerned.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 26, 2020, 10:09:31 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:44:48 PM


I think the lockdowns destroyed my heart. I seriously thought I wasn't going to make it.

This has been among the roughest 5 weeks of my life.

I hope you're joking. These last 3-4 weeks haven't been easy with being quarantined at home , but I'm surviving so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 26, 2020, 10:29:51 PM
Being the no-life, video gaming hermit I am, my life hasn't really changed a whole lot since the start of the pandemic, with the biggest difference being not going to school, which has destroyed my sleep schedule. I'm also fortunate that one of my parents work in the healthcare industry (not dealing directly with COVID patients), so they get to keep their job for the time being.

I also just miss my friends, but at least there is Discord :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 26, 2020, 11:10:43 PM
https://www.ksbw.com/article/monterey-county-intends-to-extend-shelter-in-place-order/32275040# (https://www.ksbw.com/article/monterey-county-intends-to-extend-shelter-in-place-order/32275040#)




Monterey County, CA in talks to extend their shelter in place orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 26, 2020, 11:46:13 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 10:50:01 PM
I got lucky, my wedding was last year.  I couldn't fathom having that day ruined because some governor told me that that I needed to stay at home because I might be spreading a virus that probably has a less than 1% chance of killing those it infects. I look back at my parents and see what they had to struggle through at the ends of their lives with disease after doctors told them that "staying home" and "sticking to the plan" was the best course of action. I can't imagine that either of them if they were alive today would look at the situation at hand and agree that staying home for an undefined amount of time was the right way to live.

Essentially this happened to one of my wife's friends. She was supposed to be married on March 28th, with a church ceremony and subsequent reception. Instead... they actually made a decision to call off the ceremony themselves before any executive order forced them to. But they saw things falling apart and didn't want to get stranded with an expired marriage license, so they rushed to the courthouse to get legally married while it was still open.

But I think the important point here is that the real reason their wedding was cancelled was because under the circumstances it was seen as inadvisable to gather a large number of people, some of them elderly, together in one place. If an executive order hadn't mandated the wedding be canceled, they would have cancelled it themselves anyway. And if they hadn't cancelled it themselves, a lot of people would have bailed and not showed up.

It is not the fault of the executive order that they were denied this experience.

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.

Realize that to a lot of people, hearing this sort of thing is unhelpful and just comes across as condescending/judgmental.

Given how Maslow's hierarchy of needs works, people will generally need to feel that their more basic needs for safety and security are met before they can focus on fulfilling any higher level self-actualization related needs. This is normal, and it is not a personal failing if anyone isn't productive during this time.

If you've successfully disengaged yourself from the situation enough that you are still able to focus on accomplishing other things, well... more power to you. But not everyone is going to be capable of doing this, and being told they should isn't going to change that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 12:02:58 AM
Quote from: bing101 on April 26, 2020, 11:10:43 PM
https://www.ksbw.com/article/monterey-county-intends-to-extend-shelter-in-place-order/32275040# (https://www.ksbw.com/article/monterey-county-intends-to-extend-shelter-in-place-order/32275040#)




Monterey County, CA in talks to extend their shelter in place orders.

Don't have the link myself but I'm to understand that South Lake Tahoe will be fining anyone caught in the City on "unessential travel" $1,000 dollars.  That's the second City that I'm aware of that is talking actual citations in California, it would be nice to known what the others are...there are definitely far more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 06:39:18 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
I just don't get why it's assumed businesses (and churches and others) aren't able to make good decisions on their own.  Some grocery stores around here started implementing good ideas that weren't dictated by government, and that's a great thing.  I personally think some of them should remain after the crisis is over–specifically one-way aisles.  I think businesses (and churches and others) are quite capable of making good decisions like that while remaining open, especially now that were a couple of months in and a lot of good ideas have been percolating.

Churches are a thing that I'm not addressing in this comment, since I don't know enough about how they operate, and there's a good degree of emotional attachment involved that complicates matters. And it's against forum policy, too.

But the reason that it's assumed businesses aren't able to make good decisions on their own is because any business always has an inherent conflict of interest. The purpose of any business is to make money. Fine, this is a capitalist society. But the problem is that so many businesses have proven that the profit motive is their only motive, and they will pursue making a profit over and above all other interests, such as employee safety, the overall benefit of society, etc.

The only thing that stops this is when business leadership is cognizant enough of the conflict and chooses to act in the public good, which is, strictly speaking, against the business's own self-interest. However, if the business is a publicly-held corporation, such leadership is accountable to a faceless group of shareholders, who will remove leadership which does not maximize the shareholders' return on investment. This means the only way to make such a corporation behave in the public interest is to make doing so compulsory.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 27, 2020, 08:28:38 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 

The same is true of the grocery store.  I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

Not everybody can afford the added cost of having food delivered, especially with so many people out of work.  If you can afford it, then you should absolutely be doing it instead of going to the store, but there's no way to enforce that kind of distinction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 08:38:35 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 27, 2020, 08:28:38 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 26, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
You're still touching everything everyone else has.  You're still going out, and while you're out, you might as well stop at a few other places, again touching what other people have touched.

A church isn't a magical place where everyone is suddenly touching base and no one will get sick. 

The same is true of the grocery store.  I have a fundamental problem with the government excluding religion from a list of "necessary" activities.  I can order my groceries online and have them delivered, yet I am also allowed to go to the grocery store in person if I so choose.  I can watch an online sermon, yet I am not allowed to go to church in person if I so choose.

Not everybody can afford the added cost of having food delivered, especially with so many people out of work.  If you can afford it, then you should absolutely be doing it instead of going to the store, but there's no way to enforce that kind of distinction.

I can afford it and I absolutely refuse to pay more for groceries than I have someone to come to my house with them.  Conversely it has been until recently (a larger percentage of restaurants have waived delivery fees) cheaper to order food and go get it rather than relying someone to deliver it.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 27, 2020, 08:46:45 AM
In addition to strokes, it seems like this shit can also cause heart damage. As someone who's been taking propranolol and losartan for over a year now, this puts my mind at ease. :ded:

https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/ (https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 09:23:27 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 26, 2020, 07:25:07 PM
So we should do like Walmart and limit the number of people inside at one time?  First 15 parishioners get a free sermon. Everyone after that gets free communion until we run out.

Probably still wading in the shallows of political discussion here, but...  My preference would be to say something like "businesses, places of worship, and the like may re-open but must adopt special measures to ensure social distancing, limited personal contact, etc, etc, etc."  Then leave it up to them to figure out what those measures are, rather than dictating how they should operate.

I just don't get why it's assumed businesses (and churches and others) aren't able to make good decisions on their own.  Some grocery stores around here started implementing good ideas that weren't dictated by government, and that's a great thing.  I personally think some of them should remain after the crisis is over–specifically one-way aisles.  I think businesses (and churches and others) are quite capable of making good decisions like that while remaining open, especially now that were a couple of months in and a lot of good ideas have been percolating.


It's not necessary for churches to be open.  It's necessary for grocery stores to be open.

Eventually churches will need to make the decisions you are talking about anyway, but from what I have seen, many of them won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 09:24:29 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:44:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2020, 09:41:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 26, 2020, 09:35:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:30:12 PM
I think that's an understandable reaction.  It's quite natural to avoid hospitals at a time when you believe them to be full of very contagious people.  One might figure his chances are better just toughing it out.

I got a very intense pain in my heart when the lockdowns began, and it's only started to fade in the past couple days. It's the kind of pain that you usually experience for about a second when you feel fear, except it's lasted 5 weeks. I didn't see a doctor, because I wanted medical resources to be used for coronavirus patients instead.

My days are numbered. The average coronavirus patient has more years ahead.

I don't want society destroyed just to save me. When it's my time to go, and if destroying society is the only way to save me, I'd rather just go.
Dude... what's wrong?

I think the lockdowns destroyed my heart. I seriously thought I wasn't going to make it.

This has been among the roughest 5 weeks of my life.


It clearly sounds like anxiety.  Do you have access / ability to speak to a counselor?  Many are doing virtual visits.  They have helped my wife.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 09:32:34 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 09:24:29 AM
It clearly sounds like anxiety.  Do you have access / ability to speak to a counselor?  Many are doing virtual visits.  They have helped my wife.

I have a social worker, but I haven't been able to get there since this began.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 27, 2020, 10:19:22 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 09:32:34 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 09:24:29 AM
It clearly sounds like anxiety.  Do you have access / ability to speak to a counselor?  Many are doing virtual visits.  They have helped my wife.

I have a social worker, but I haven't been able to get there since this began.

an you do anything on-line like a virtual meeting?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 10:20:40 AM
Quote from: US71 on April 27, 2020, 10:19:22 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 09:32:34 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 09:24:29 AM
It clearly sounds like anxiety.  Do you have access / ability to speak to a counselor?  Many are doing virtual visits.  They have helped my wife.

I have a social worker, but I haven't been able to get there since this began.

an you do anything on-line like a virtual meeting?

Maybe. I might be able to do a phone call. I just don't know if it will be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 27, 2020, 10:46:47 AM
I don't want to violate forum policy by discussing religion too much, but there are certain ritual aspects for several denominations that make it more difficult than just "remain six feet apart," especially Eastern denominations (Orthodox, Eastern Catholic) where Communion is distributed under both kinds via a spoon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 10:53:51 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 27, 2020, 10:46:47 AM
I don't want to violate forum policy by discussing religion too much, but there are certain ritual aspects for several denominations that make it more difficult than just "remain six feet apart," especially Eastern denominations (Orthodox, Eastern Catholic) where Communion is distributed under both kinds via a spoon.
When the pandemic seemed near my church just skipped communion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:00:20 AM
I think the local Roman Catholic diocese canceled all services. Almost all other churches did too, except maybe a few that had drive-in services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 11:37:58 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on April 27, 2020, 10:46:47 AM
I don't want to violate forum policy by discussing religion too much, but there are certain ritual aspects for several denominations that make it more difficult than just "remain six feet apart," especially Eastern denominations (Orthodox, Eastern Catholic) where Communion is distributed under both kinds via a spoon.


St. Sava, the big Serbian Orthodox church in Milwaukee, closed early and is live streaming their services.

The venn diagram of those churches that want to (or are) defying these orders, and those churches who are made up of science denying creationist types, are pretty well overlapped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on April 27, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Has a vaccine ever been approved for any Coronavirus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 11:55:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.


Oh come now.  Don't be fatalistic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 11:56:33 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.
When I said American exceptionalism was to much sometimes, I didn't mean go so far the other way! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 11:57:31 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 27, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Has a vaccine ever been approved for any Coronavirus?


No.  Mostly because they ethier kill people quickly (SARS) so mitigation issues are more effective, or it isn't worth the effort because symptoms are mild and the strains are constantly changing (common cold.)

There is debate whether or not a vaccine will even be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 27, 2020, 11:58:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.

American isn't broken yet.  But it's gonna be a while before it fully comes back. If anything, this just moved up an inevitable recession by a few years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 12:07:25 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 27, 2020, 11:58:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.

American isn't broken yet.  But it's gonna be a while before it fully comes back. If anything, this just moved up an inevitable recession by a few years.
At least I'm not entering the job market anytime soon. (probably entering it in about 5 years)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 27, 2020, 12:14:31 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 11:57:31 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on April 27, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Has a vaccine ever been approved for any Coronavirus?


No.  Mostly because they ethier kill people quickly (SARS) so mitigation issues are more effective, or it isn't worth the effort because symptoms are mild and the strains are constantly changing (common cold.)

There is debate whether or not a vaccine will even be effective.

There is a vaccine for FeCV - feline coronavirus; naturally, it is not approved for humans as there is no risk of infection. There is a vaccine for dog coronavirus, which is again not applicable to humans. I believe - but not sure - there is something for cattle as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: doorknob60 on April 27, 2020, 01:14:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 25, 2020, 06:55:57 PM
Interestingly here in California one of the largest rural outbreaks was in Mono County at Mammoth.  The outbreak was caused by non-locals from the Los Angeles Area trying to hunker down at second homes and ski resorts.  As if Mono County needed another reason to despise the Los Angeles Basin after the L.A. Aqueduct.   One of the reasons Mariposa County doesn’t have any cases out in the western Sierras was local pressure to close Yosemite which kept tourists away.

The same reason is why Blaine County Idaho got hit hardest. It's a resort area with a fairly small permanent population, but is home to the Sun Valley Resort and many people from out of state have second homes there.

The numbers:
Blaine County
Population: 23,021
Confirmed Cases: 483
2.1%

Compared to Idaho's most populated and urban county,
Ada County
Population: 481,587
Confirmed Cases: 615
0.13%

Blaine County has nearly the same number of confirmed cases as Ada County (where Boise and Meridian are), despite Ada having 20x the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 27, 2020, 01:35:33 PM
One of the leading protesters in NC tested positive. Wouldn't you know who won the pony? :pan:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article242317346.html (https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article242317346.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 27, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
My irony meter has been broken several times during this whole thing. This is one example.

Kentucky's hospitals are mostly empty, to the point where they are furloughing or laying off staff members. Meanwhile, two field hospitals were built. One at the fairgrounds in Louisville, and one at the UK football practice facility in Lexington. Odds are pretty good that neither will ever host one patient. The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was to avoid overwhelming the health care system, but there's no likelihood of that happening, even if we get a spike in cases requiring hospitalization, because there are so many beds empty at existing permanent facilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 27, 2020, 01:40:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 27, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
My irony meter has been broken several times during this whole thing. This is one example.

Kentucky's hospitals are mostly empty, to the point where they are furloughing or laying off staff members. Meanwhile, two field hospitals were built. One at the fairgrounds in Louisville, and one at the UK football practice facility in Lexington. Odds are pretty good that neither will ever host one patient. The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was to avoid overwhelming the health care system, but there's no likelihood of that happening, even if we get a spike in cases requiring hospitalization, because there are so many beds empty at existing permanent facilities.

That means it's working. If we continued life as usual, the system would be overwhelmed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 27, 2020, 01:45:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 27, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
My irony meter has been broken several times during this whole thing. This is one example.

Kentucky's hospitals are mostly empty, to the point where they are furloughing or laying off staff members. Meanwhile, two field hospitals were built. One at the fairgrounds in Louisville, and one at the UK football practice facility in Lexington. Odds are pretty good that neither will ever host one patient. The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was to avoid overwhelming the health care system, but there's no likelihood of that happening, even if we get a spike in cases requiring hospitalization, because there are so many beds empty at existing permanent facilities.
never say never. I expect worst is still to come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 01:47:42 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 27, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
My irony meter has been broken several times during this whole thing. This is one example.

Kentucky's hospitals are mostly empty, to the point where they are furloughing or laying off staff members. Meanwhile, two field hospitals were built. One at the fairgrounds in Louisville, and one at the UK football practice facility in Lexington. Odds are pretty good that neither will ever host one patient. The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was to avoid overwhelming the health care system, but there's no likelihood of that happening, even if we get a spike in cases requiring hospitalization, because there are so many beds empty at existing permanent facilities.


Nice!  It means that Kentucky's stay at home order was the right thing to do and Kentuckians are abiding by it!  Good job!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 27, 2020, 11:58:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.

American isn't broken yet.  But it's gonna be a while before it fully comes back. If anything, this just moved up an inevitable recession by a few years.

I think this is much bigger than a recession.  Many businesses are going under.  Not just Mom and Pop stores, either.  The Dunkin Donuts I'd pass by on my way to work is now gone - not just closed, but gone, with their logo taken down from the building.  Many restaurants are struggling with the loss of dine-in customers.

It's hard to envision movie theaters reopening, for example - people are going to be leery about congregating until there's a vaccine or treatment, and movie theaters are going to have to significantly reduce capacity to maintain social distancing.  That's very bad for them - movie theaters are a low-margin business, and they weren't in the greatest financial shape even before the pandemic, so even a 30% drop in attendance will send them to bankruptcy.  Add in the fact that concession sales are 50% of their revenue and mask wearing will make it hard to much on popcorn, and things do not look good for them.

The more businesses go under, the more people are unemployed or have a reduced income, the less spending there is, further straining businesses due to lost sales, and the cycle goes on and on.  The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on April 27, 2020, 02:53:06 PM
Even hospitals in metro Detroit are laying off workers.  This is not because there are no COVID patients.  It's because other patient counts are down due to elective procedures being cancelled.  If you're not doing a knee or hip replacement, you don't need the employees who work in those operating rooms and recovery.  You don't need food service employees to feed patients who aren't there.  You don't need someone in billing or accounts to take care of payments for services that aren't happening.

Not every hospital employee can be a direct caregiver for someone with COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus outbreak
Post by: kalvado on April 27, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 11:00:12 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 12:26:50 AMExpect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.
It is only end of april, and US just hit one million diagnosed cases - despite pretty drastic response.... I thought I was pessimistic back then....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on April 27, 2020, 04:01:21 PM
USA == Europe as far as population is concerned - Europe "wins".  :awesomeface:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 27, 2020, 04:18:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 27, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on March 09, 2020, 11:00:12 AM
Quote from: kalvado on March 09, 2020, 12:26:50 AMExpect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.

It is only end of April, and US just hit one million diagnosed cases - despite pretty drastic response.... I thought I was pessimistic back then....

Not to mention we now have about 50,000 COVID-19 deaths (depending on source you check--Wikipedia's stats page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) shows just 49,113 as of yesterday) and coronavirus victims buried in a mass grave on Hart Island (in 2 x 3 x 25 "pods" of pine coffins).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 04:29:22 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.

It was broken forever before, you just didn't notice yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 27, 2020, 04:31:40 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 27, 2020, 01:35:33 PM
One of the leading protesters in NC tested positive. Wouldn't you know who won the pony? :pan:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article242317346.html (https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article242317346.html)

https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges (https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges)
:pan:
One of the leaders of the San Diego COVID-19 protest is under investigation for sending people to Downtown San Diego to violate California shelter in Place orders. Not shocking if the same is happening  at State Capital Cities though.  Also in the Allegations the leader of the California protests has filed a lawsuit against the Governor over COVID-19 prevention orders. Umm why do you think some counties in California are being pressured to extend shelter in place and mask orders?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 05:03:45 PM
One of the leaders of Reopen NC got coronavirus  :pan:.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 27, 2020, 05:12:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 05:03:45 PM
One of the leaders of Reopen NC got coronavirus  :pan: .




https://www.newsweek.com/states-around-north-carolina-begin-reopening-governor-cooper-extends-stay-home-order-may-1500067 (https://www.newsweek.com/states-around-north-carolina-begin-reopening-governor-cooper-extends-stay-home-order-may-1500067)


Update North Carolina has extended their Stay at Home Orders until May 8th.



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 27, 2020, 05:13:13 PM
https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/coronavirus-local-updates-sc-governor-expected-extend-work-or-stay-home-order/G53SSTHJUFBJFPFGIVHRSCTXOQ/ (https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/coronavirus-local-updates-sc-governor-expected-extend-work-or-stay-home-order/G53SSTHJUFBJFPFGIVHRSCTXOQ/)


South Carolina has extended their State of Emergency orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 27, 2020, 05:25:21 PM
https://abc7news.com/society/live-mayor-breed-announces-details-on-covid-19-shelter-in-place-extension-in-sf--/6133024/ (https://abc7news.com/society/live-mayor-breed-announces-details-on-covid-19-shelter-in-place-extension-in-sf--/6133024/)


San Francisco has announced that they will extend their shelter in Place orders until May 31st.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 06:39:18 AM

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
I just don't get why it's assumed businesses (and churches and others) aren't able to make good decisions on their own.  Some grocery stores around here started implementing good ideas that weren't dictated by government, and that's a great thing.  I personally think some of them should remain after the crisis is over–specifically one-way aisles.  I think businesses (and churches and others) are quite capable of making good decisions like that while remaining open, especially now that were a couple of months in and a lot of good ideas have been percolating.

Churches are a thing that I'm not addressing in this comment, since I don't know enough about how they operate, and there's a good degree of emotional attachment involved that complicates matters. And it's against forum policy, too.

But the reason that it's assumed businesses aren't able to make good decisions on their own is because any business always has an inherent conflict of interest. The purpose of any business is to make money. Fine, this is a capitalist society. But the problem is that so many businesses have proven that the profit motive is their only motive, and they will pursue making a profit over and above all other interests, such as employee safety, the overall benefit of society, etc.

The only thing that stops this is when business leadership is cognizant enough of the conflict and chooses to act in the public good, which is, strictly speaking, against the business's own self-interest. However, if the business is a publicly-held corporation, such leadership is accountable to a faceless group of shareholders, who will remove leadership which does not maximize the shareholders' return on investment. This means the only way to make such a corporation behave in the public interest is to make doing so compulsory.

I disagree.  Businesses making decisions that benefit society–especially in this specific context–are likely to attract more customers.  If Store A implements social distancing measures and Store B does not, then any potential customers who are concerned about the virus will be more likely to shop at Store A.  You say the measures would not be in that stores financial interest, but I say it gets them more customers in the door.

Quote from: 1995hoo on April 27, 2020, 10:46:47 AM
I don't want to violate forum policy by discussing religion too much, but there are certain ritual aspects for several denominations that make it more difficult than just "remain six feet apart," especially Eastern denominations (Orthodox, Eastern Catholic) where Communion is distributed under both kinds via a spoon.

This is very true.  Not everything church-related can be done online or even six feet separated.  That could be spun either way, depending on your position.  Either it means banning in-person religious services is a good thing because people would definitely be too close together, or else it means banning in-person religious services is bad because that's the only way some religious activities can be done.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 11:37:58 AM
The venn diagram of those churches that want to (or are) defying these orders, and those churches who are made up of science denying creationist types, are pretty well overlapped.

Perhaps in this country, but that's not the case universally.  In eastern Europe and Russia, it is the Catholic and Orthodox churches that have taken the most defiant stands against restrictions.  I suspect that has something to do with the comment/reply immediately above this one.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on April 27, 2020, 11:58:38 AM
American isn't broken yet.  But it's gonna be a while before it fully comes back. If anything, this just moved up an inevitable recession by a few years.

Isn't it about time for one of tradephoric's spiffy line graphs?

Quote from: 1 on April 27, 2020, 01:40:32 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on April 27, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
My irony meter has been broken several times during this whole thing. This is one example.

Kentucky's hospitals are mostly empty, to the point where they are furloughing or laying off staff members. Meanwhile, two field hospitals were built. One at the fairgrounds in Louisville, and one at the UK football practice facility in Lexington. Odds are pretty good that neither will ever host one patient. The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was to avoid overwhelming the health care system, but there's no likelihood of that happening, even if we get a spike in cases requiring hospitalization, because there are so many beds empty at existing permanent facilities.

That means it's working. If we continued life as usual, the system would be overwhelmed.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 27, 2020, 01:47:42 PM
Nice!  It means that Kentucky's stay at home order was the right thing to do and Kentuckians are abiding by it!  Good job!

Logically, that is not the only conclusion to be drawn.  It's entirely possible that hbelkins is correct in that the building of the hospitals was going overboard and that they were never really needed to begin with.  I, for one, doubt that the number of patients kept out of treatment by the government orders amounts to that many empty hospital beds.  If they had built seventy hospitals, your argument would fall flat on its face.  Admit that maybe only one hospital was needed, or maybe there was already enough capacity to begin with.

Quote from: kalvado on April 27, 2020, 01:45:10 PM
never say never. I expect worst is still to come.

This is another possibility.  It's too soon to say whether they'll be used.  It might turn out that they'll start filling up in five weeks.  Who knows?  It might even turn out they should have built three.

Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PM
The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:56:10 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 26, 2020, 11:46:13 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.

Realize that to a lot of people, hearing this sort of thing is unhelpful and just comes across as condescending/judgmental.

Given how Maslow's hierarchy of needs works, people will generally need to feel that their more basic needs for safety and security are met before they can focus on fulfilling any higher level self-actualization related needs. This is normal, and it is not a personal failing if anyone isn't productive during this time.

If you've successfully disengaged yourself from the situation enough that you are still able to focus on accomplishing other things, well... more power to you. But not everyone is going to be capable of doing this, and being told they should isn't going to change that.

The bigger error is that he assumed I suddenly have a bunch of extra time that needs making use of.  Not everyone got laid off or furloughed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on April 27, 2020, 05:56:45 PM
I think there will be a few states (or parts of states) that will still have stay home orders on July 4th. The current farthest-out order is Virginia, and theirs currently expires on June 10.

Also, I could see a few states open regions of their state at different times, especially states that are dominated by one major metro area (IL, MI, and NY come to mind). In my home state of Michigan, there are a few counties (all in the UP) that have reported no cases. Michigan has a high caseload (currently 7th in # of cases, but was 3rd for a couple weeks behind NY and NJ), but 75-80% of the cases are in three counties (Macomb, Oakland, Wayne).

I'm not Catholic, but the local diocese won't have any in-person services until May 24 at the earliest. Once Sunday services resume, they'll likely be busy with the backlog of funerals and memorial services (if people choose to have them; even before COVID, there were people in my area that died during the winter but didn't have funerals or memorial services until the summer due to the number of older people that winter out of state).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 27, 2020, 06:36:51 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PMThe economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.

That claim is debatable.  It is hard to do comparisons with the 1918 flu because much of the econometric data that is collected now was not gathered back then, but with no social distancing, ICUs become overloaded and mortality soars, so the coronavirus now becomes pretty comparable to the 1918 flu in lethality (no antibiotics and no modern mechanical ventilation).  Anecdotal evidence from 1918 suggests there are economic impacts no matter what.  If you impose social distancing and stay-at-home orders (our current situation), the volume of business drops as many commercial transactions simply don't happen.  On the other hand, in 1918, many businesses (with some exceptions such as pharmacies, doctors' offices, etc.) experienced large drops of revenue and large losses as a result of workers and customers getting sick, perishable products having to be discarded for lack of buyers, etc.

So, even if we were prepared to ignore the ethical implications of allowing ICUs to overload so that treatable cases of COVID-19 end in death, it is not at all clear that the economy does well in the counterfactual case where social distancing and stay-at-home orders are not applied.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 06:40:56 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:56:10 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 26, 2020, 11:46:13 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2020, 02:23:09 AM
If the quarantine makes you feel like life is not worth living, that means you are not making use of the time properly.

Realize that to a lot of people, hearing this sort of thing is unhelpful and just comes across as condescending/judgmental.

Given how Maslow's hierarchy of needs works, people will generally need to feel that their more basic needs for safety and security are met before they can focus on fulfilling any higher level self-actualization related needs. This is normal, and it is not a personal failing if anyone isn't productive during this time.

If you've successfully disengaged yourself from the situation enough that you are still able to focus on accomplishing other things, well... more power to you. But not everyone is going to be capable of doing this, and being told they should isn't going to change that.

The bigger error is that he assumed I suddenly have a bunch of extra time that needs making use of.  Not everyone got laid off or furloughed.

In that vein, how many of us actually haven't missed a day of work or worked from home during all of this?  I still go into my office five days a week and I don't even think working from home has even been discussed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 27, 2020, 07:16:44 PM
Not sure this was posted or not...makes me worry about places like Georgia that are starting to peel back restrictions, despite cases continuing to rise (at a rate much higher than the point when Hokkaido started to relax):

This Japanese Island [Hokkaido] Lifted Its Coronavirus Lockdown Too Soon and Became a Warning to the World (https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/) (TIME)

Quote
Hokkaido's story is a sobering reality check for leaders across the world as they consider easing coronavirus lockdowns: Experts say restrictions were lifted too quickly and too soon because of pressure from local businesses, coupled with a false sense of security in its declining infection rate.
Quote
By mid-March, the health crisis was stabilizing–new cases were in the low single digits and even zero on some days–but complaints from businesses were increasing.
Quote
The announcement lifting restrictions came just before a three-day weekend; Hokkaido residents spilled onto streets and lingered in cafes, celebrating the conclusion of their weeks-long confinement. That likely kicked off the second wave of infections, says Nagase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 27, 2020, 07:19:37 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 27, 2020, 07:16:44 PM
Not sure this was posted or not...makes me worry about places like Georgia that are starting to peel back restrictions, despite cases continuing to rise (at a rate much higher than the point when Hokkaido started to relax):

South Carolina was initially doing the same as Georgia, but the governor reversed course; SC is now extending the stay-at-home order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on April 27, 2020, 08:44:12 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.

In that case, make sure you send your roadmeet plans to either Dan Garnell, or Steve Alpert before Memorial Day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 27, 2020, 08:46:31 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 27, 2020, 07:19:37 PM
South Carolina was initially doing the same as Georgia, but the governor reversed course; SC is now extending the stay-at-home order.

Only for another 15 days or less (the previous emergency declaration expired today, apparently all state emergency declarations in SC expire after 15 days). The governor indicated that the "home or work" order, automatically extended by the new emergency declaration, might be canceled before the 15 days are up. The emergency extension also appears not to reverse the governor's previous order loosening some restrictions on local businesses, only to make sure the remaining restrictions continue in force.

https://www.wistv.com/2020/04/27/gov-mcmaster-renews-covid-state-emergency-more-days-extending-home-or-work-order/

Text of new emergency declaration:

https://www.scribd.com/document/458659376/042720-Executive-Order-Mcmaster#from_embed 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 27, 2020, 08:47:36 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.

I disagree. Things will change. some for the better some for the worse, but things will change.

"While there's life, there's hope"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on April 27, 2020, 09:00:19 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
I don't think the United States is coming back after this. Other countries might have a fighting chance. But I think America is broken forever.
On the contrary, I think the USA will come back stronger so as long as we don't normalize this near unprecedented slap in the face to our rights and freedoms.

I'll also add, maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part, but if any country to collapse I think it will be China. I've been reading multiple articles about this or that company moving it's operations out of China. I think the world will change because of this and hopefully many other countries that are deserving will see economic boosts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 09:07:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 06:39:18 AM

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
I just don't get why it's assumed businesses (and churches and others) aren't able to make good decisions on their own.  Some grocery stores around here started implementing good ideas that weren't dictated by government, and that's a great thing.  I personally think some of them should remain after the crisis is over–specifically one-way aisles.  I think businesses (and churches and others) are quite capable of making good decisions like that while remaining open, especially now that were a couple of months in and a lot of good ideas have been percolating.

Churches are a thing that I'm not addressing in this comment, since I don't know enough about how they operate, and there's a good degree of emotional attachment involved that complicates matters. And it's against forum policy, too.

But the reason that it's assumed businesses aren't able to make good decisions on their own is because any business always has an inherent conflict of interest. The purpose of any business is to make money. Fine, this is a capitalist society. But the problem is that so many businesses have proven that the profit motive is their only motive, and they will pursue making a profit over and above all other interests, such as employee safety, the overall benefit of society, etc.

The only thing that stops this is when business leadership is cognizant enough of the conflict and chooses to act in the public good, which is, strictly speaking, against the business's own self-interest. However, if the business is a publicly-held corporation, such leadership is accountable to a faceless group of shareholders, who will remove leadership which does not maximize the shareholders' return on investment. This means the only way to make such a corporation behave in the public interest is to make doing so compulsory.

I disagree.  Businesses making decisions that benefit society–especially in this specific context–are likely to attract more customers.  If Store A implements social distancing measures and Store B does not, then any potential customers who are concerned about the virus will be more likely to shop at Store A.  You say the measures would not be in that stores financial interest, but I say it gets them more customers in the door.

You say theories that aren't borne out in reality. Efficacy of social distancing measures are not going to be the primary concern that shoppers have when they choose a place to do business with. Price, convenience, product selection, and brand loyalty are, just as they always are.

Check out this poll that someone did on the OKCTalk forums:
(https://i.imgur.com/RfhEQeb.png)

You can argue these people have the freedom to endanger themselves by choosing to patronize a store that refuses to implement social distancing. But that means more possible infections, more potential asymptomatic spreaders, and more people to potentially take up a hospital bed that you might need later on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 27, 2020, 09:16:37 PM
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/coronavirus/article_8c3f87c8-88b0-11ea-a367-2faccc4d6e0c.html (https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/coronavirus/article_8c3f87c8-88b0-11ea-a367-2faccc4d6e0c.html)


Louisiana will extend their stay at home orders until May 15th.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-new-york/new-york-governor-cuomo-to-extend-stay-at-home-order-in-some-parts-of-state-idUSKCN2292B3 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-new-york/new-york-governor-cuomo-to-extend-stay-at-home-order-in-some-parts-of-state-idUSKCN2292B3)




New York State to consider extending stay at home orders.



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on April 27, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
I was one of the ones that voted yes. If you, I, or anyone else end up on a hospital bed that is our fault. Any healthcare worker at that facility knew what they were getting into when they signed for it. I love and have the utmost respect for our healthcare workers for any asshole that tries to take my comment and spin it somehow.

None of that gives others the right to whine and bitch trying to take freedoms away. If you don't want to get sick then stay inside. I really wonder how many of these folks screaming and crying about others going out are really sitting inside themselves. It's like people just want others to be miserable with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 27, 2020, 09:22:07 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 09:07:28 PM
But this has never been the case before. Efficacy of social distancing measures are not going to be the primary concern that shoppers have when they choose a place to do business with. Price, convenience, product selection, and brand loyalty are, just as they always are.

Check out this poll that someone did on the OKCTalk forums:
(https://i.imgur.com/RfhEQeb.png)

You can argue these people have the freedom to endanger themselves by choosing to patronize a store that refuses to implement social distancing. But that means more possible infections, more potential asymptomatic spreaders, and more people to potentially take up a hospital bed that you might need later on.

Or maybe the people responding to the poll think the one-way aisle arrows are kind of a joke (as they are in my area, even though it's a regional coronavirus hotspot -- nice idea in theory, but not working as well as envisioned), and "checkout line Xs" (unclear what that means, but I assume it's markers six feet apart) are helpful reminders but not as dependable as using your shopping cart to create space or giving the "stink eye" to anyone getting too close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 27, 2020, 09:22:30 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 27, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
If you don't want to get sick then stay inside.

And if you work in a grocery store?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 09:46:48 PM
The one-way stuff at stores is a joke for numerous reasons.  First off, almost no store actually attempts to enforce the one-way aisles which makes sense when you think about it.  How can a store that is probably already hurting over spending on payroll possibly staff people to hunt down rule violators in store aisles...or even the six foot stand of spaces?  IMO the signage itself it usually inconsistent and really poorly placed, sometimes I've found myself walking the wrong way only to realize it after I leave the aisle.  The visual placement in most retailers isn't really oriented for highlighting safety signage and it is showing right now.  I kind of always wished there would be far more standardization in the retail industry in terms of safety signage, it is generally basic across the board and far from universal.  The basic ANSI stuff is usually around but there isn't much out there universal for things like foot traffic control.

Regarding stores and working in them everyday.  Realistically if you're a retail worker and you've been going to work everyday, there is a high probability that you've been exposed numerous times.  Stores are usually an assortment of random shoppers to begin with, so usually when one person gets something like a cold or flu it spreads fast in the work force.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 09:59:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PM
The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.
I take it you still believe in that V-shaped recovery?  Sorry, that's not going to happen.  Just because stay at home orders lift doesn't mean that people will magically return to normal behavior.  And that won't make businesses that already went under solvent again, it won't make up for spending from furloughed or laid off workers, etc.  And honestly, it's even worse than the article below implies, which doesn't mention that some businesses have already failed or that a large portion of the restaurant industry was based on the idea that people eat out on their lunch breaks (which is also one of the reasons for grocery shortages) - which isn't happening now that people are working from home, and likely will at higher levels than before even after a vaccine or treatment that allows for full normalcy is developed and deployed.  Lots of trends that would have happened over the next decade (increased telework, businesses that were on the decline, etc.) are now happening in the span of a few weeks.  With hour interconnected our economy is, that's going to be traumatic, no matter how this goes.

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Quote
The movement to "reopen"  America is a fallacy based on a fantasy.

The fallacy is the notion that lifting stay-at-home orders will result in people going back to their normal routines. This is false. The state-issued stay-at-home orders did not determine most people's desires to stay home–they merely ratified behaviors that the vast majority of people and institutions were already adopting in response to COVID-19.

The fantasy is that we can go back to what the world looked like 12 weeks ago. This is not possible now and will not be possible until we possess a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

Understand that I am not saying that stay-at-home orders should be indefinite. What I am saying is that whenever the stay-at-home orders are rolled back–whether it is tomorrow or a month from now–it will not result in anything like a "reopening"  of the country.  And the sooner people grasp how completely and fundamentally the world has changed, the faster we'll be able to adapt to this new reality.

We are not looking at a blip that everyone will soon forget and we'll all go back and pretend it never happened.  This is bigger than 9/11 - a LOT bigger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 27, 2020, 10:01:14 PM
One good thing: The number of new cases found today is the lowest it's been since way back on March 29. And that's with significantly more testing.

It baffles me why they keep extending the lockdown orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 27, 2020, 10:13:03 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 27, 2020, 09:22:30 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 27, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
If you don't want to get sick then stay inside.
And if you work in a grocery store?

Or in healthcare, or in manufacturing related to healthcare products?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 27, 2020, 10:26:22 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 27, 2020, 09:22:07 PMOr maybe the people responding to the poll think the one-way aisle arrows are kind of a joke (as they are in my area, even though it's a regional coronavirus hotspot -- nice idea in theory, but not working as well as envisioned), and "checkout line Xs" (unclear what that means, but I assume it's markers six feet apart) are helpful reminders but not as dependable as using your shopping cart to create space or giving the "stink eye" to anyone getting too close.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 09:46:48 PMThe one-way stuff at stores is a joke for numerous reasons.  First off, almost no store actually attempts to enforce the one-way aisles which makes sense when you think about it.  How can a store that is probably already hurting over spending on payroll possibly staff people to hunt down rule violators in store aisles...or even the six foot stand of spaces?  IMO the signage itself it usually inconsistent and really poorly placed, sometimes I've found myself walking the wrong way only to realize it after I leave the aisle.  The visual placement in most retailers isn't really oriented for highlighting safety signage and it is showing right now.  I kind of always wished there would be far more standardization in the retail industry in terms of safety signage, it is generally basic across the board and far from universal.  The basic ANSI stuff is usually around but there isn't much out there universal for things like foot traffic control.

At the Dillons (Kroger affiliate) near me, there are six-foot markings at the checkouts but the aisles are still two-way.  I would like them to remain so since I find I am better able to keep my distance if I can reverse out when the way forward is blocked by people searching for the specific item they want.




As for reopening the economy in general:  as I think I noted upthread, in my local area there is a considerable lack of unanimity even among the business community.  Everyone would like the hemorrhaging to stop, but we know we don't have the testing we need, and there are many  businesspeople out there who worry about their establishments becoming venues for outbreaks--in fact, we had many voluntary closures or conversions to takeout/delivery only before the county and state stay-at-home orders went into effect.  The baseline expectation is that social distancing will be necessary long after non-essential businesses are allowed to reopen, and many of them cannot operate profitably at customer densities that low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 27, 2020, 10:55:54 PM
Rather than try to reply to any specific comment, (been there, done that too many times in this thread...) I'll just note for the record that coronavirus would have certainly caused an economic recession, regardless of what the government did or didn't do.

Keep in mind that a lot of the fears and panic buying and so on began well before the business closures and lockdowns. Not to mention that the hit to the tourism and travel industry alone is enough to cause a recession, and much of the social distancing and reduced person-to-person contact happening now would have happened anyways, just in a less organized (and perhaps even more panic-inducing) fashion. It's really not even up for debate: there's just no way to spin this as an avoidable recession, or one that might not have happened with a different type of government response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 11:07:24 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 27, 2020, 10:26:22 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 27, 2020, 09:22:07 PMOr maybe the people responding to the poll think the one-way aisle arrows are kind of a joke (as they are in my area, even though it's a regional coronavirus hotspot -- nice idea in theory, but not working as well as envisioned), and "checkout line Xs" (unclear what that means, but I assume it's markers six feet apart) are helpful reminders but not as dependable as using your shopping cart to create space or giving the "stink eye" to anyone getting too close.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 09:46:48 PMThe one-way stuff at stores is a joke for numerous reasons.  First off, almost no store actually attempts to enforce the one-way aisles which makes sense when you think about it.  How can a store that is probably already hurting over spending on payroll possibly staff people to hunt down rule violators in store aisles...or even the six foot stand of spaces?  IMO the signage itself it usually inconsistent and really poorly placed, sometimes I've found myself walking the wrong way only to realize it after I leave the aisle.  The visual placement in most retailers isn't really oriented for highlighting safety signage and it is showing right now.  I kind of always wished there would be far more standardization in the retail industry in terms of safety signage, it is generally basic across the board and far from universal.  The basic ANSI stuff is usually around but there isn't much out there universal for things like foot traffic control.

At the Dillons (Kroger affiliate) near me, there are six-foot markings at the checkouts but the aisles are still two-way.  I would like them to remain so since I find I am better able to keep my distance if I can reverse out when the way forward is blocked by people searching for the specific item they want.




.

See that's what I've noticed too, people just end up back tracking into each other with all the confusing signage all over.  Most grocery store aisles are wide enough that people could get past each other fairly easily if left to their own whims.  The worst is when the same thing is attempted in a Soft Lines and Hard Lines setting, those aisles tend to be about 6-8 wide.  Then again those aisles usually aren't all that busy so it makes me wonder why bothering at all?  For what it's worth it seems like managing the number of people in the store like Costco does is a far better way to keep people from each than one-way aisles. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 27, 2020, 11:25:04 PM
(https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/46f408f/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1006x676+0+0/resize/840x564!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fae%2F2e%2Fa68fa58f431c9dba48d97418e03a%2Fscreenshot-2020-04-24-at-7.05.06%20AM.png)

There has been a sudden surge in new cases in Orange County over the weekend.  California was the first state to issue a stay-at-home order and those early measures may have been effective at limiting the spread of the virus early on.  But with a sudden spike in new cases, the governor may want to lock things down even tighter (even as residents of California have been under a stay-at-home order longer than anyone else in the country).  The people of California may not be too receptive to the governor wanting to extend the stay-at-home order further or making it even more restrictive.  California may be in a tough spot moving forward. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 11:36:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 27, 2020, 11:25:04 PM
(https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/46f408f/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1006x676+0+0/resize/840x564!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fae%2F2e%2Fa68fa58f431c9dba48d97418e03a%2Fscreenshot-2020-04-24-at-7.05.06%20AM.png)

There has been a sudden surge in new cases in Orange County over the weekend.  California was the first state to issue a stay-at-home order and those early measures may have been effective at limiting the spread of the virus early on.  But with a sudden spike in new cases, the governor may want to lock things down even tighter (even as residents of California have been under a stay-at-home order longer than anyone else in the country).  The people of California may not be too receptive to the governor wanting to extend the stay-at-home order further or making it even more restrictive.  California may be in a tough spot moving forward.
Play stupid games win stupid prizes
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on April 27, 2020, 11:38:18 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 09:59:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PM
The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.
I take it you still believe in that V-shaped recovery?  Sorry, that's not going to happen.  Just because stay at home orders lift doesn't mean that people will magically return to normal behavior.  And that won't make businesses that already went under solvent again, it won't make up for spending from furloughed or laid off workers, etc.  And honestly, it's even worse than the article below implies, which doesn't mention that some businesses have already failed or that a large portion of the restaurant industry was based on the idea that people eat out on their lunch breaks (which is also one of the reasons for grocery shortages) - which isn't happening now that people are working from home, and likely will at higher levels than before even after a vaccine or treatment that allows for full normalcy is developed and deployed.  Lots of trends that would have happened over the next decade (increased telework, businesses that were on the decline, etc.) are now happening in the span of a few weeks.  With hour interconnected our economy is, that's going to be traumatic, no matter how this goes.

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Quote
The movement to "reopen"  America is a fallacy based on a fantasy.

The fallacy is the notion that lifting stay-at-home orders will result in people going back to their normal routines. This is false. The state-issued stay-at-home orders did not determine most people's desires to stay home–they merely ratified behaviors that the vast majority of people and institutions were already adopting in response to COVID-19.

The fantasy is that we can go back to what the world looked like 12 weeks ago. This is not possible now and will not be possible until we possess a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

Understand that I am not saying that stay-at-home orders should be indefinite. What I am saying is that whenever the stay-at-home orders are rolled back–whether it is tomorrow or a month from now–it will not result in anything like a "reopening"  of the country.  And the sooner people grasp how completely and fundamentally the world has changed, the faster we'll be able to adapt to this new reality.

We are not looking at a blip that everyone will soon forget and we'll all go back and pretend it never happened.  This is bigger than 9/11 - a LOT bigger.

Yup. 9/11 shut down pro + college sports, entertainment and travel for a week, destroyed the largest employer and tallest building in New York, and brought us eventually into two wars, with all the security measures we have now.

But people were still going out to eat, even right after. The economy took a hit for a few months, but came back. Outside of New York + DC and security at public places, most people didn't notice major effects.

We were in the busiest time of sports of the entire year. Homestretch of the NBA and NHL seasons, college basketball conference tournaments with 4 games a day eventually leading to the men's and women's NCAAs, the Florida golf swing with the Masters coming, MLB spring training, the start of the NASCAR and MLS seasons, UFC, and the start of college spring sports (including baseball and softball). Coming NFL draft in Las Vegas.

One positive test from Rudy Gobert: all of that, gone. Within 36 hours. All college sports cancelled for the rest of the season. Professional sports significantly delayed. Going on 7 weeks of absolutely nothing. When/if they do come back this year, there most likely won't be any fans or significantly reduced crowds for months. College sports might not come back until the new year.

There will be tens of billions of dollars of revenue lost in the US this year. And that is just the sports industry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 11:42:59 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on April 27, 2020, 11:38:18 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 09:59:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PM
The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.
I take it you still believe in that V-shaped recovery?  Sorry, that's not going to happen.  Just because stay at home orders lift doesn't mean that people will magically return to normal behavior.  And that won't make businesses that already went under solvent again, it won't make up for spending from furloughed or laid off workers, etc.  And honestly, it's even worse than the article below implies, which doesn't mention that some businesses have already failed or that a large portion of the restaurant industry was based on the idea that people eat out on their lunch breaks (which is also one of the reasons for grocery shortages) - which isn't happening now that people are working from home, and likely will at higher levels than before even after a vaccine or treatment that allows for full normalcy is developed and deployed.  Lots of trends that would have happened over the next decade (increased telework, businesses that were on the decline, etc.) are now happening in the span of a few weeks.  With hour interconnected our economy is, that's going to be traumatic, no matter how this goes.

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Quote
The movement to “reopen” America is a fallacy based on a fantasy.

The fallacy is the notion that lifting stay-at-home orders will result in people going back to their normal routines. This is false. The state-issued stay-at-home orders did not determine most people’s desires to stay home—they merely ratified behaviors that the vast majority of people and institutions were already adopting in response to COVID-19.

The fantasy is that we can go back to what the world looked like 12 weeks ago. This is not possible now and will not be possible until we possess a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

Understand that I am not saying that stay-at-home orders should be indefinite. What I am saying is that whenever the stay-at-home orders are rolled back—whether it is tomorrow or a month from now—it will not result in anything like a “reopening” of the country.  And the sooner people grasp how completely and fundamentally the world has changed, the faster we’ll be able to adapt to this new reality.

We are not looking at a blip that everyone will soon forget and we'll all go back and pretend it never happened.  This is bigger than 9/11 - a LOT bigger.

Yup. 9/11 shut down pro + college sports, entertainment and travel for a week, destroyed the largest employer and tallest building in New York, and brought us eventually into two wars, with all the security measures we have now.

But people were still going out to eat, even right after. The economy took a hit for a few months, but came back. Outside of New York + DC and security at public places, most people didn’t notice major effects.

We were in the busiest time of sports of the entire year. Homestretch of the NBA and NHL seasons, college basketball conference tournaments with 4 games a day eventually leading to the men’s and women’s NCAAs, the Florida golf swing with the Masters coming, MLB spring training, the start of the NASCAR and MLS seasons, UFC, and the start of college spring sports (including baseball and softball). Coming NFL draft in Las Vegas.

One positive test from Rudy Gobert: all of that, gone. Within 36 hours. All college sports cancelled for the rest of the season. Professional sports significantly delayed. Going on 7 weeks of absolutely nothing. When/if they do come back this year, there most likely won’t be any fans or significantly reduced crowds for months. College sports might not come back until the new year.

There will be tens of billions of dollars of revenue lost in the US this year. And that is just the sports industry.
Just thinking, what if Gobert never test positive? When would sports shut down?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 11:44:57 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 27, 2020, 11:25:04 PM
(https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/46f408f/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1006x676+0+0/resize/840x564!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fae%2F2e%2Fa68fa58f431c9dba48d97418e03a%2Fscreenshot-2020-04-24-at-7.05.06%20AM.png)

There has been a sudden surge in new cases in Orange County over the weekend.  California was the first state to issue a stay-at-home order and those early measures may have been effective at limiting the spread of the virus early on.  But with a sudden spike in new cases, the governor may want to lock things down even tighter (even as residents of California have been under a stay-at-home order longer than anyone else in the country).  The people of California may not be too receptive to the governor wanting to extend the stay-at-home order further or making it even more restrictive.  California may be in a tough spot moving forward.

Half the cases are in Los Angeles County, a good chunk of the remaining percentage is located in the surrounding counties.  So why should the rest of the state be punished because of Los Angeles County?  The six northernmost counties have little cases and have been advocating hard to begin reopening.  Even here in the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada regions our case counts have been low.  That's what I was getting at by Los Angeles County presently dictating how the rest of the state is responding right now.  The problem is Los Angeles Area, not the rest of the state.

At the moment the top tend counties by the 43,658 cases in California are as follows:

1.  Los Angeles - 19,528
2.  Riverside - 3,563
3.  San Diego - 3,043
4.  Santa Clara - 2,084
5.  Orange - 2,074
6.  San Bernardino 1,751
7.  Alameda 1,468
8.  San Francisco 1,408
9.  Sacramento 1,037
10.  San Mateo 1,019

The majority of the early confirmed cases were in the San Francisco Bay Area which led to the early stay-at-home orders back on 3/16/20.  The case spike as of late has been around the Los Angeles Area, the virus has been in decline pretty much north of the Los Angeles County Line.  There are huge geographic divisions in California that should and in my opinion need to be considered in terms of the reopening process.  Why should counties like; Lassen, Trinity, Modoc, Alpine, Sierra, and many others still be subject to the harder restrictions that Southern California clearly needs?  Either way the case load is heavily concentrated in urbanize areas with the largest one being hit by far the hardest. 

Now what bothers me is that a lot of counties aren't reporting case recovery statistics anymore.  In the counties which have the recovery rate at this point is generally in the 50% range.  I'm not saying open everything right back up in Northern California, but start with something aside elective surgeries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ErmineNotyours on April 27, 2020, 11:45:21 PM
Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

Someone upthread wondered if movie theaters would open again soon.  I found evidence of one indoor theater (https://www.bigscreen.com/Marquee.php?theater=23040&view=sched) and several drive-ins showing movies now.  With few new releases, they are resorting to classics like Back To the Future, E. T., Grease and "Officers and a Gentleman."  Either that's a misprint, or it's the gay adult film version of that movie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 11:46:19 PM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on April 27, 2020, 11:45:21 PM
Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

Someone upthread wondered if movie theaters would open again soon.  I found evidence of one indoor theater (https://www.bigscreen.com/Marquee.php?theater=23040&view=sched) and several drive-ins showing movies now.  With few new releases, they are resorting to classics like Back To the Future, E. T., Grease and "Officers and a Gentleman."  Either that's a misprint, or it's the gay adult film version of that movie.
Will movie theaters be able to turn a profit with socially distanced seats?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 27, 2020, 11:55:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 11:42:59 PM
Just thinking, what if Gobert never test positive? When would sports shut down?

He isn't the only athlete (or coach) to test positive. His test might've slightly sped up the inevitable sports shutdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on April 28, 2020, 12:03:52 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 11:46:19 PM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on April 27, 2020, 11:45:21 PM
Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

Someone upthread wondered if movie theaters would open again soon.  I found evidence of one indoor theater (https://www.bigscreen.com/Marquee.php?theater=23040&view=sched) and several drive-ins showing movies now.  With few new releases, they are resorting to classics like Back To the Future, E. T., Grease and "Officers and a Gentleman."  Either that's a misprint, or it's the gay adult film version of that movie.
Will movie theaters be able to turn a profit with socially distanced seats?
If they could, they would have to thoroughly clean out the place between each movie. The time it takes to do this would most likely take away from some of the time the theater forces people to watch previews anyway. Heck, some shows will have plenty of open seats to spare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 03:29:42 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 27, 2020, 10:13:03 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 27, 2020, 09:22:30 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 27, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
If you don't want to get sick then stay inside.
And if you work in a grocery store?

Or in healthcare, or in manufacturing related to healthcare products?
I don't understand what is being suggested here. Is the notion behind this to shut down grocery stores or will you just accuse me of a strawman? Hmm
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 07:43:36 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Me and my wife don't have a choice if want to keep getting paid.  At minimum it's not hard to see "why"  we are required.  Yeah we could choose to stay home at the peril of losing our jobs and income to pay the mortgage, that's a not exactly much of a choice.  There are people in far more dire financial circumstances are in the same boat who probably work entry level jobs.  They have a choice, but the logical one is to keep working. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 28, 2020, 07:59:23 AM
I think everybody's missing the point here.  Yes, people who work in jobs that have to keep going: health care, public safety, public services, food, and medicine--they have to keep working.  The way we keep those people as safe as possible is for the rest of us to stay at home to the greatest extent possible. 

The number of COVID-19 patients at my wife's hospital is decreasing.  The number dying + the very few who get to leave alive is outnumbering the number of new ones coming in.  Health care workers are going to get very pissed off if restrictions get lifted too fast and they start seeing a new surge in patients.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on April 28, 2020, 08:02:03 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 11:07:24 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 27, 2020, 10:26:22 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 27, 2020, 09:22:07 PMOr maybe the people responding to the poll think the one-way aisle arrows are kind of a joke (as they are in my area, even though it's a regional coronavirus hotspot -- nice idea in theory, but not working as well as envisioned), and "checkout line Xs" (unclear what that means, but I assume it's markers six feet apart) are helpful reminders but not as dependable as using your shopping cart to create space or giving the "stink eye" to anyone getting too close.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 27, 2020, 09:46:48 PMThe one-way stuff at stores is a joke for numerous reasons.  First off, almost no store actually attempts to enforce the one-way aisles which makes sense when you think about it.  How can a store that is probably already hurting over spending on payroll possibly staff people to hunt down rule violators in store aisles...or even the six foot stand of spaces?  IMO the signage itself it usually inconsistent and really poorly placed, sometimes I've found myself walking the wrong way only to realize it after I leave the aisle.  The visual placement in most retailers isn't really oriented for highlighting safety signage and it is showing right now.  I kind of always wished there would be far more standardization in the retail industry in terms of safety signage, it is generally basic across the board and far from universal.  The basic ANSI stuff is usually around but there isn't much out there universal for things like foot traffic control.

At the Dillons (Kroger affiliate) near me, there are six-foot markings at the checkouts but the aisles are still two-way.  I would like them to remain so since I find I am better able to keep my distance if I can reverse out when the way forward is blocked by people searching for the specific item they want.




.

See that's what I've noticed too, people just end up back tracking into each other with all the confusing signage all over.  Most grocery store aisles are wide enough that people could get past each other fairly easily if left to their own whims.  The worst is when the same thing is attempted in a Soft Lines and Hard Lines setting, those aisles tend to be about 6-8 wide.  Then again those aisles usually aren't all that busy so it makes me wonder why bothering at all?  For what it's worth it seems like managing the number of people in the store like Costco does is a far better way to keep people from each than one-way aisles. 

One of the things that struck me when I went to Wegmans is that their checkout system is working really well–they have everyone form a single line for the regular checkouts (and a separate line for the self-checkouts) and at the front of the line an employee directs people to the next available lane. The line itself has markings on the floor showing how far apart you should stand. But the past two times I've gone there, the person behind me on line has been a "cart puller"–one of those people who pulls his cart around the store, instead of pushing it, and then wants to stand in front of his cart while waiting on line for the checkout. Totally defeats the purpose of trying to stand six feet apart.

On Sunday I went to Giant instead because the weather was nasty–Wegmans has a line to enter the store and it's not under a roof, whereas Giant has a roof over the sidewalk out front. Wegmans is a much better store, but Giant has the self-scan things, so I scanned and bagged everything as I walked around the store and then used the self-checkout without having to scan anything other than the barcode on the self-scanner unit. Much faster. I noted Giant had removed the one-way markings on the floor (people were ignoring them anyway). I asked the chain's management about it via Twitter and they said they will contact the store to ask what the deal is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 28, 2020, 08:05:46 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on April 27, 2020, 11:45:21 PM
Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

So due to the actions of one person, you won't go back to the entire supermarket?  What if he turned the same way you were going to turn at the end of the aisle?  What if there were other people behind you - would he be able to just duck back into the aisle?  What if he goes to a different supermarket next time...are you going to start writing off every supermarket in the region avoiding the one guy who looked at his phone in the supermarket?

Quote from: ozarkman417 on April 28, 2020, 12:03:52 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 27, 2020, 11:46:19 PM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on April 27, 2020, 11:45:21 PM
Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

Someone upthread wondered if movie theaters would open again soon.  I found evidence of one indoor theater (https://www.bigscreen.com/Marquee.php?theater=23040&view=sched) and several drive-ins showing movies now.  With few new releases, they are resorting to classics like Back To the Future, E. T., Grease and "Officers and a Gentleman."  Either that's a misprint, or it's the gay adult film version of that movie.
Will movie theaters be able to turn a profit with socially distanced seats?
If they could, they would have to thoroughly clean out the place between each movie. The time it takes to do this would most likely take away from some of the time the theater forces people to watch previews anyway. Heck, some shows will have plenty of open seats to spare.

Advertisers are paying for those previews before a movie.  By eliminating these previews you're gonna have movie tickets going up higher, or movie theatres to go out of business faster. 

To the question of if movie theatres turning a profit by distancing people - that's a huge concern in many industries.  Restaurants will have to eliminate tables.  Bowling alleys can only place people every 2 or 3 lanes apart.  Stores may continue to reduce occupancy inside.  Car dealerships may restrict how many can be in a showroom.  Conventions will be almost non-existent.  Basically - almost any business out there will need to change their approach.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 08:46:17 AM
Below are the daily totals of confirmed cases and deaths in San Francisco county.  The city has been locked down for 43 days now and they have been able to keep daily cases under control.  It appears the strategy is to bring the number of cases down to a very low level before reopening the city, and then contact tracing and isolating any new cases that pop up.  But how effective will they be in containing the virus once the city reopens?  I question how effective they will be in contact tracing and isolating the 16 new cases that popped up yesterday in the middle of the lockdown, much less all the new cases that will pop up once the city reopens.

(https://i.imgur.com/3QwbZdB.png)

NYC was hit hard in March but at least they have gained a level of immunity that may help prevent a big spike in cases moving forward.  A recent antibody study show that 21% of people in NYC have antibodies to the virus.  Compare that to a recent study out of California that found only 4% of people in LA county had antibodies to the virus.  If you look at the raw testing numbers, the percentage of positive tests in New York is much higher than it is in California (that's even with a higher percentage of the population being tested in NY).

(https://i.imgur.com/xTZQw2S.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:55:19 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 08:46:17 AM
Below are the daily totals of confirmed cases and deaths in San Francisco county.  The city has been locked down for 43 days now and they have been able to keep daily cases under control.  It appears the strategy is to bring the number of cases down to a very low level before reopening the city, and then contact tracing and isolating any new cases that pop up.  But how effective will they be in containing the virus once the city reopens?  I question how effective they will be in contact tracing and isolating the 16 new cases that popped up yesterday in the middle of the lockdown, much less all the new cases that will pop up once the city reopens.
So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

Contact tracing is one part of the puzzle, not the only one. Continued distancing, masks, hygiene, precautionary isolation are other parts of the deal. None of them is 100% effective, but  taken in complex they may keep things under control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:57:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM


Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PM
The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.


LOL.  No it wouldn't have.  Are you really this naive?  Without the government shutdowns, the pandemic would have been worse.  More people would be sick and die, which will would have caused people to stop going out anyway.

If partially shutting down the economy for a few weeks is that catastrophic, maybe the problem is the economy wasn't all that great to begin with if it was built on such a fragile foundation.  Maybe if our safety net was better, we could endure this easier.

One thing this pandemic has shown, is that a lot of what makes up the American economy is a facade - like an old western movie set.  It looks good from one angle, but if you really take a look around, it's not very substantive.  ie, sure unemployment numbers are low, but so are wages for a lot of people, and therefore savings.  Furthermore, government incentivizes companies to slash their payrolls, then provides employees with all sorts of barriers to access solutions.  Oh, and they don't have adequate health care either, so if they get sick, it may cause them to have to declare bankruptcy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 28, 2020, 09:09:39 AM
A church in Chincoteague, VA is suing the governor.

https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/accomack-county/chincoteague-church-sues-gov-northam-for-covid-19-orders-preventing-gathering-for-worship/ (https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/accomack-county/chincoteague-church-sues-gov-northam-for-covid-19-orders-preventing-gathering-for-worship/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 28, 2020, 09:12:05 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on April 25, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825
Well, the WHO took that back. They now say that there is most likely immunity, but we just don't know how long it lasts, etc. (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/27/who-walks-back-no-evidence-claim-coronavirus-immun/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 09:25:31 AM
Quote from: LM117 on April 28, 2020, 09:09:39 AM
A church in Chincoteague, VA is suing the governor.

https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/accomack-county/chincoteague-church-sues-gov-northam-for-covid-19-orders-preventing-gathering-for-worship/ (https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/accomack-county/chincoteague-church-sues-gov-northam-for-covid-19-orders-preventing-gathering-for-worship/)
If they can still worship online their rights are not being violated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 09:31:27 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:55:19 AM
So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

I'm proposing that California is delaying the inevitable spike in cases that will come once they do reopen.  There is a big difference between "flattening the curve" and "flat-lining the curve".  It seems like California has taken the "flat-lining" approach where they locked everything down early in an attempt to contain the virus.  The reality is California hasn't experienced their first big wave of infections but it might be coming.  Whenever they reopen, not only will the state be worried about "flatting the curve" but they may also be "behind the curve" as the population hasn't gained much immunity from the virus when compared to the east coast that has already been hit hard.   

Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:55:19 AM
Contact tracing is one part of the puzzle, not the only one. Continued distancing, masks, hygiene, precautionary isolation are other parts of the deal. None of them is 100% effective, but  taken in complex they may keep things under control.


That's true.  Maybe the combination of all of those things will be effective at preventing a spike in new cases in California upon reopening.  But you look at Singapore who have been doing all those things too for several weeks, and they were ultimately unable to contain the virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 28, 2020, 09:33:04 AM
In other VA litigation news, a judge has ruled that the SafeSide gun range in Lynchburg (which had filed a lawsuit against the governor) can reopen.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/27/846757355/virginia-gun-range-can-reopen-governor-overstepped-his-authority-judge-rules (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/27/846757355/virginia-gun-range-can-reopen-governor-overstepped-his-authority-judge-rules)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 28, 2020, 09:35:46 AM
For some reason, I've felt this entire time as if the entire country is in the situation my area is in, even though I live in a semi-hotspot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 09:44:30 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 09:31:27 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:55:19 AM
So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

I'm proposing that California is delaying the inevitable spike in cases that will come once they do reopen.  There is a big difference between "flattening the curve" and "flat-lining the curve".  It seems like California has taken the "flat-lining" approach where they locked everything down early in an attempt to contain the virus.  The reality is California hasn't experienced their first big wave of infections but it might be coming.  Whenever they reopen, not only will the state be worried about "flatting the curve" but they may also be "behind the curve" as the population hasn't gained much immunity from the virus when compared to the east coast that has already been hit hard.   
Delaying till what? The only way to get immunity is to get exposed to the virus - and possibly get sick with 10% probability (and die with 1% probability) as a result. No vaccine yet.
The only management strategy I see is getting people sick at a manageable rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 28, 2020, 09:58:43 AM
In addition to cats, dogs are getting hit with this shit, too. A pug in Chapel Hill, NC has tested positive and is the first known infected dog in the US.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/chapel-hill-pug-tests-positive-for-virus-that-causes-covid-19-first-known-case-in-a-dog-in-the-us/19074499/ (https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/chapel-hill-pug-tests-positive-for-virus-that-causes-covid-19-first-known-case-in-a-dog-in-the-us/19074499/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 28, 2020, 10:06:39 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 28, 2020, 09:35:46 AM
For some reason, I've felt this entire time as if the entire country is in the situation my area is in, even though I live in a semi-hotspot.

I would say throughout the country as a whole, there are a lot more similarities than differences.

Not in terms of the healthcare system (which is obviously much more strained in the hotspots), but in terms of how our daily lives have been affected, I think it's very similar no matter what state or city you're in. The biggest place-to-place difference is probably that things are a little more like normal in rural areas, simply because of the lower population density.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:15:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 10:24:08 AM
https://www.wral.com/fact-check-franklin-graham-says-sweden-avoided-infection-without-lockdown/19074082/ (https://www.wral.com/fact-check-franklin-graham-says-sweden-avoided-infection-without-lockdown/19074082/)

Now Sweden's COVID-19 response is examined after a statement by Franklin Graham was released.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:15:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.
Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:15:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.
Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?
We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 28, 2020, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 09:44:30 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 09:31:27 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:55:19 AM
So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

I'm proposing that California is delaying the inevitable spike in cases that will come once they do reopen.  There is a big difference between "flattening the curve" and "flat-lining the curve".  It seems like California has taken the "flat-lining" approach where they locked everything down early in an attempt to contain the virus.  The reality is California hasn't experienced their first big wave of infections but it might be coming.  Whenever they reopen, not only will the state be worried about "flatting the curve" but they may also be "behind the curve" as the population hasn't gained much immunity from the virus when compared to the east coast that has already been hit hard.   
Delaying till what? The only way to get immunity is to get exposed to the virus - and possibly get sick with 10% probability (and die with 1% probability) as a result. No vaccine yet.
The only management strategy I see is getting people sick at a manageable rate.

Flattening the curve isn't just about spreading out the infections over time--it's about reducing the total number of infections.  Just accepting that everybody will eventually get infected and 1% of the population will die is not acceptable.  There are going to have to be some long term restrictions that remain until we get a vaccine:

Offices are going to have to continue to allow staff to work from home as much as possible.  Office spaces are going to have to be reconfigured to keep the work spaces of those who are in the office at least 6 feet apart and require masks.

Larger stores are going to have to limit the number of people inside, require masks for customers and employees, and manage traffic flow inside the stores.  Smaller stores are going to have to take orders at the door/outside the door and complete transactions without having customers actually enter the store. 

No crowds for large concerts or sporting events.  Places like parks, beaches, museums and zoos either remain closed or come up with plans to restrict the numbers of and spacing of people. 

If you're reading this and you're in a position to influence the working conditions of employees, I'm begging you on behalf of the spouse of a respiratory therapist to follow these guidelines even if your state/local government become less restrictive.  She's seen way too many people die this past 8 weeks.

If you're reading this and your employer is forcing you to return to work in conditions that you think aren't safe, contact an attorney (I am NOT an attorney) before putting your health and life at risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 10:36:08 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:15:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.
Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?
We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.
We have to open up sometimes, just opening it up to early could be bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on April 28, 2020, 10:36:40 AM
The way the word "testing" is being bandied about by so many various officials one would think that it is a synonym for "curing".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:38:16 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:15:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.
Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?
We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.
not rush to open - CAREFULLY  open to avoid flare out. Restraunts and churches may go to hell, milestone 1: survive winter 2021.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 10:41:37 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:38:16 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:15:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.
Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?
We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.
not rush to open - CAREFULLY  open to avoid flare out.


Right.  And I think a lot of people aren't going to be going to restaurants for awhile regardless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 10:51:03 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 10:41:37 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:38:16 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 10:15:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:10:30 AM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.
Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.
Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.
Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?
We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.
not rush to open - CAREFULLY  open to avoid flare out.


Right.  And I think a lot of people aren't going to be going to restaurants for awhile regardless.
At least restaurants can still do take out. Places like movie theaters might be screwed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 28, 2020, 12:04:27 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 09:31:27 AMThat's true.  Maybe the combination of all of those things will be effective at preventing a spike in new cases in California upon reopening.  But you look at Singapore who have been doing all those things too for several weeks, and they were ultimately unable to contain the virus.

Singapore was doing quite well until the virus got into migrant worker dormitories where the residents could not socially distance.  This is not unlike the situation we face with jails, prisons, and nursing homes.

My concern about the portfolio approach of testing and contact tracing is not that it doesn't work (it does, and has in South Korea), but rather has to do with aspects of how the US response has fallen short.

*  We are still rationing tests even though a more or less universal lockdown keeps demand for them in check.

*  We don't have quick turnaround on results except for a minority of tests that is being reserved for workers in critically important industries (such as meatpacking).  If you are waiting three days for results, that is that much more time for a cluster to grow.

*  With the exception of a few jurisdictions such as Massachusetts that have been ramping up, we are nowhere close to having the contact-tracers we need.

*  Unlike South Korea, we don't have a contact-tracing app in wide use.

*  Even after about a month to mitigate spread, we are dealing with a very high load of active cases per capita.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 12:42:45 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2020, 10:35:28 AM
Flattening the curve isn't just about spreading out the infections over time--it's about reducing the total number of infections.  Just accepting that everybody will eventually get infected and 1% of the population will die is not acceptable.  There are going to have to be some long term restrictions that remain until we get a vaccine:

Even if NYC remains locked down indefinitely, the city will likely gain herd immunity long before a vaccine becomes available.  According to Phase II of the New York antibody tests, it's projected that 24.7% of the NYC population have antibodies to the virus.  With 16,936 reported deaths in NYC, that equates to a mortality rate of 0.8% (which is in the ballpark of the 1% mortality rate Dr. Fauci has routinely cited).  In Phase 1 of the study it was estimated that 1 in 5 NYC residents was infected by the virus.  Just a week later when Phase 2 was released, it was estimated that 1 in 4 NYC residents has been infected.  If herd immunity is coming (and it appears to be) why not quicken the process by reopening the city?  NYC should follow the Stockholm, Sweden approach.

Lockdown-free Stockholm 'could achieve herd immunity in May': Claim by Swedish ambassador as she reveals 30% of the city's population already have immunity
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8261519/Stockholm-achieve-herd-immunity-Claim-Swedish-ambassador-US.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 01:01:40 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 12:42:45 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2020, 10:35:28 AM
Flattening the curve isn't just about spreading out the infections over time--it's about reducing the total number of infections.  Just accepting that everybody will eventually get infected and 1% of the population will die is not acceptable.  There are going to have to be some long term restrictions that remain until we get a vaccine:

Even if NYC remains locked down indefinitely, the city will likely gain herd immunity long before a vaccine becomes available.  According to Phase II of the New York antibody tests, it's projected that 24.7% of the NYC population have antibodies to the virus.  With 16,936 reported deaths in NYC, that equates to a mortality rate of 0.8% (which is in the ballpark of the 1% mortality rate Dr. Fauci has routinely cited).  In Phase 1 of the study it was estimated that 1 in 5 NYC residents was infected by the virus.  Just a week later when Phase 2 was released, it was estimated that 1 in 4 NYC residents has been infected.  If herd immunity is coming (and it appears to be) why not quicken the process by reopening the city?  NYC should follow the Stockholm, Sweden approach.

Lockdown-free Stockholm 'could achieve herd immunity in May': Claim by Swedish ambassador as she reveals 30% of the city's population already have immunity
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8261519/Stockholm-achieve-herd-immunity-Claim-Swedish-ambassador-US.html
Original estimates of transmission rate is about 2.5 - so you need more than 60% immune, 2.5x what NYC has.
To get there, NYC went through a month in hell, including storing bodies in refrigerators and disposing of the dead in mass graves. It would take another 1.5-2 months of the same pattern at the same rate to achieve herd immunity. Including about 40-50k more deaths (current estimate is about 1/3 of excess deaths are not reported as covid).  You know, a mid-size city in some states  has that many people...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 28, 2020, 01:04:01 PM
If the goal is to achieve herd immunity without overwhelming the hospitals, eastern MA has done quite well. High but constant; no huge outbreaks like NYC, Detroit, Louisiana, Washington, or SW Georgia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 01:05:17 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 28, 2020, 01:04:01 PM
If the goal is to achieve herd immunity without overwhelming the hospitals, eastern MA has done quite well. High but constant; no huge outbreaks like NYC, Detroit, Louisiana, Washington, or SW Georgia.
They are likely nowhere close to herd immunity levels.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 28, 2020, 01:28:55 PM
One thing to keep in mind with the comparisons to Sweden: one of the reasons why we have many of the restrictions we do is because people were proving themselves unable to handle lesser restrictions.  If you don't believe me, just go to Walmart when it's busy.  Nobody follows the one-way aisles at all, and people walk every which way in such a way that you can't socially distance yourself effectively (like that guy mentioned earlier that stopped to text).  Many parks/playgrounds/etc. that are closed only closed because people were crowding the area.  Florida closed their beaches because people were having parties.  I would not be surprised if the Swedish were just better at following the rules than Americans, therefore avoiding the need to improve more restrictive, but easier to enforce, rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 28, 2020, 01:34:25 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 28, 2020, 01:28:55 PM
One thing to keep in mind with the comparisons to Sweden: one of the reasons why we have many of the restrictions we do is because people were proving themselves unable to handle lesser restrictions.  If you don't believe me, just go to Walmart when it's busy.  Nobody follows the one-way aisles at all, and people walk every which way in such a way that you can't socially distance yourself effectively (like that guy mentioned earlier that stopped to text).  Many parks/playgrounds/etc. that are closed only closed because people were crowding the area.  Florida closed their beaches because people were having parties.  I would not be surprised if the Swedish were just better at following the rules than Americans, therefore avoiding the need to improve more restrictive, but easier to enforce, rules.

That's 100% accurate.  Americans are very selfish and entitled in general, but particularly those who come from upper-middle and upper class backgrounds.  If guidelines say that there shouldn't be more than 50 people at a park, everyone thinks they should get to go whenever they want and everybody else should adjust around them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 28, 2020, 02:20:17 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 09:59:11 PM

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Quote
The movement to "reopen"  America is a fallacy based on a fantasy.

The fallacy is the notion that lifting stay-at-home orders will result in people going back to their normal routines. This is false. The state-issued stay-at-home orders did not determine most people's desires to stay home–they merely ratified behaviors that the vast majority of people and institutions were already adopting in response to COVID-19.

The fantasy is that we can go back to what the world looked like 12 weeks ago. This is not possible now and will not be possible until we possess a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

Understand that I am not saying that stay-at-home orders should be indefinite. What I am saying is that whenever the stay-at-home orders are rolled back–whether it is tomorrow or a month from now–it will not result in anything like a "reopening"  of the country.  And the sooner people grasp how completely and fundamentally the world has changed, the faster we'll be able to adapt to this new reality.

We are not looking at a blip that everyone will soon forget and we'll all go back and pretend it never happened.  This is bigger than 9/11 - a LOT bigger.

That's The Bulwark. A bunch of Never Trumpers. If the president was talking about keeping things shutdown for the foreseeable future, they'd be advocating opening everything now.

Re: reopening restaurants, bars, sporting events, movie theaters, etc. I don't go to events. Haven't been to a movie in years, haven't been to a ballgame of any type in ages, don't go to bars, etc. I don't like crowds, traffic jams, and all the things that go along with things like sporting events and concerts. But if restaurants reopened tomorrow for full-service dine-in, I'd have no reservations whatsoever about going. The odds of any one individual becoming ill from the virus are very long. Best I can tell, 40 percent of those who contract it are asymptomatic, 20 percent become ill with minor symptoms, 20 percent have more major symptoms. Of that last 20 percent, very few require hospitalization and even fewer end up in the ICU.

I don't take a flu shot, and I've never had the flu. Back in February, I was in a meeting with someone who wasn't feeling well and went home at lunchtime to see the doctor. He'd had the flu shot, and he tested positive for the flu. No one who was in the room with him caught the flu.

I have no plans to take a COVID-19 vaccine, especially something that will be rushed to market with very little testing. I also have no plans to be tested for COVID-19. I told my wife that even if I get sick, I won't be going to the doctor unless they cart me off in an ambulance. I have no desire to be told I have the virus and have the government tell us that we have to stay home for 14 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 02:21:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 01:01:40 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 12:42:45 PM
Even if NYC remains locked down indefinitely, the city will likely gain herd immunity long before a vaccine becomes available.  According to Phase II of the New York antibody tests, it's projected that 24.7% of the NYC population have antibodies to the virus.  With 16,936 reported deaths in NYC, that equates to a mortality rate of 0.8% (which is in the ballpark of the 1% mortality rate Dr. Fauci has routinely cited).  In Phase 1 of the study it was estimated that 1 in 5 NYC residents was infected by the virus.  Just a week later when Phase 2 was released, it was estimated that 1 in 4 NYC residents has been infected.  If herd immunity is coming (and it appears to be) why not quicken the process by reopening the city?  NYC should follow the Stockholm, Sweden approach.

Lockdown-free Stockholm 'could achieve herd immunity in May': Claim by Swedish ambassador as she reveals 30% of the city's population already have immunity
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8261519/Stockholm-achieve-herd-immunity-Claim-Swedish-ambassador-US.html
Original estimates of transmission rate is about 2.5 - so you need more than 60% immune, 2.5x what NYC has.
To get there, NYC went through a month in hell, including storing bodies in refrigerators and disposing of the dead in mass graves. It would take another 1.5-2 months of the same pattern at the same rate to achieve herd immunity. Including about 40-50k more deaths (current estimate is about 1/3 of excess deaths are not reported as covid).  You know, a mid-size city in some states  has that many people...

The 16,936 deaths cited includes 11,708 confirmed deaths and 5,228 probable deaths (with probable deaths being 1/3 of total deaths).  I believe the 1/3 excess deaths that you referenced has been accounted for in the totals.  Assuming NYC reopens, it's hard to believe there would be 20k deaths per month moving forward (ie. 40k deaths over 2 months) when there was under 17k deaths per month during the first wave of infections.  Second wave cases should be lower compared to the first wave due to the added immunity present, the social distancing guidelines being enforced, and people required to wear masks when out in public.  None of these things were happening back in early march... in fact on March 2nd Bill De Blasio tweeted the following:

"Since I'm encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions," de Blasio tweeted on March 2. "Here's the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see The Traitor [at Lincoln Center]. If The Wire was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film."

Ultimately the healthcare system could handle the spike in COVID cases back in March and there's no reason to believe they can't handle a second wave of infections.  Keep in mind that 40 deaths per day for the next year (ie. keeping NYC shut down) would be equivalent to 14,600 deaths over the course of a month (ie. NYC reopening and seeing a sudden but short term spike in deaths while herd immunity is gained). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 02:35:48 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 02:21:41 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 01:01:40 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 12:42:45 PM
Even if NYC remains locked down indefinitely, the city will likely gain herd immunity long before a vaccine becomes available.  According to Phase II of the New York antibody tests, it's projected that 24.7% of the NYC population have antibodies to the virus.  With 16,936 reported deaths in NYC, that equates to a mortality rate of 0.8% (which is in the ballpark of the 1% mortality rate Dr. Fauci has routinely cited).  In Phase 1 of the study it was estimated that 1 in 5 NYC residents was infected by the virus.  Just a week later when Phase 2 was released, it was estimated that 1 in 4 NYC residents has been infected.  If herd immunity is coming (and it appears to be) why not quicken the process by reopening the city?  NYC should follow the Stockholm, Sweden approach.

Lockdown-free Stockholm 'could achieve herd immunity in May': Claim by Swedish ambassador as she reveals 30% of the city's population already have immunity
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8261519/Stockholm-achieve-herd-immunity-Claim-Swedish-ambassador-US.html
Original estimates of transmission rate is about 2.5 - so you need more than 60% immune, 2.5x what NYC has.
To get there, NYC went through a month in hell, including storing bodies in refrigerators and disposing of the dead in mass graves. It would take another 1.5-2 months of the same pattern at the same rate to achieve herd immunity. Including about 40-50k more deaths (current estimate is about 1/3 of excess deaths are not reported as covid).  You know, a mid-size city in some states  has that many people...

The 16,936 deaths cited includes 11,708 confirmed deaths and 5,228 probable deaths (with probable deaths being 1/3 of total deaths).  I believe the 1/3 excess deaths that you referenced has been accounted for in the totals.  Assuming NYC reopens, it's hard to believe there would be 20k deaths per month moving forward (ie. 40k deaths over 2 months) when there was under 17k deaths per month during the first wave of infections.  Second wave cases should be lower compared to the first wave due to the added immunity present, the social distancing guidelines being enforced, and people required to wear masks when out in public.  None of these things were happening back in early march... in fact on March 2nd Bill De Blasio tweeted the following:

"Since I'm encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions," de Blasio tweeted on March 2. "Here's the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see The Traitor [at Lincoln Center]. If The Wire was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film."

Ultimately the healthcare system could handle the spike in COVID cases back in March and there's no reason to believe they can't handle a second wave of infections.  Keep in mind that 40 deaths per day for the next year (ie. keeping NYC shut down) would be equivalent to 14,600 deaths over the course of a month (ie. NYC reopening and seeing a sudden but short term spike in deaths while herd immunity is gained).
There was an article in NYT, they compared total reported mortality with previous years background - and concluded about 19k total in NYC so far. Probably includes things like a heart attack - but reported late to ER  and refused hospitalisation due to fear of infection.
Second wave could be slightly milder - but not 2x
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 02:40:39 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 02:21:41 PM
Ultimately the healthcare system could handle the spike in COVID cases back in March and there's no reason to believe they can't handle a second wave of infections.  Keep in mind that 40 deaths per day for the next year (ie. keeping NYC shut down) would be equivalent to 14,600 deaths over the course of a month (ie. NYC reopening and seeing a sudden but short term spike in deaths while herd immunity is gained).
And to put things in perspective:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/us/er-doctor-coronavirus-help-death-by-suicide-trnd/index.html
My friend works in one of those NYC hospitals; this news were followed by yet another e-mail with psychological help hotline number and contact information of various priests. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 28, 2020, 02:58:02 PM
^That's a tragic story no doubt.  This whole situation is stressful on everyone.  Over the past 5 weeks 26.5 million workers have lost their job and filed for unemployment.  Imagine the financial stress millions of Americans are going through right now.  Nothing about this is easy.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 28, 2020, 02:20:17 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 09:59:11 PM

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Quote
The movement to "reopen"  America is a fallacy based on a fantasy.

The fallacy is the notion that lifting stay-at-home orders will result in people going back to their normal routines. This is false. The state-issued stay-at-home orders did not determine most people's desires to stay home–they merely ratified behaviors that the vast majority of people and institutions were already adopting in response to COVID-19.

The fantasy is that we can go back to what the world looked like 12 weeks ago. This is not possible now and will not be possible until we possess a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

Understand that I am not saying that stay-at-home orders should be indefinite. What I am saying is that whenever the stay-at-home orders are rolled back–whether it is tomorrow or a month from now–it will not result in anything like a "reopening"  of the country.  And the sooner people grasp how completely and fundamentally the world has changed, the faster we'll be able to adapt to this new reality.

We are not looking at a blip that everyone will soon forget and we'll all go back and pretend it never happened.  This is bigger than 9/11 - a LOT bigger.

That's The Bulwark. A bunch of Never Trumpers. If the president was talking about keeping things shutdown for the foreseeable future, they'd be advocating opening everything now.

Re: reopening restaurants, bars, sporting events, movie theaters, etc. I don't go to events. Haven't been to a movie in years, haven't been to a ballgame of any type in ages, don't go to bars, etc. I don't like crowds, traffic jams, and all the things that go along with things like sporting events and concerts. But if restaurants reopened tomorrow for full-service dine-in, I'd have no reservations whatsoever about going. The odds of any one individual becoming ill from the virus are very long. Best I can tell, 40 percent of those who contract it are asymptomatic, 20 percent become ill with minor symptoms, 20 percent have more major symptoms. Of that last 20 percent, very few require hospitalization and even fewer end up in the ICU.

I don't take a flu shot, and I've never had the flu. Back in February, I was in a meeting with someone who wasn't feeling well and went home at lunchtime to see the doctor. He'd had the flu shot, and he tested positive for the flu. No one who was in the room with him caught the flu.

I have no plans to take a COVID-19 vaccine, especially something that will be rushed to market with very little testing. I also have no plans to be tested for COVID-19. I told my wife that even if I get sick, I won't be going to the doctor unless they cart me off in an ambulance. I have no desire to be told I have the virus and have the government tell us that we have to stay home for 14 days.

But you would do so voluntarily right?  Because otherwise you are being a danger to people you come in contact with.

And flu vaccines do work.  They aren't 100% effective in every case, but they keep people healthier by preventing community spread as well.  I presume it would be similar for a Covid vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 04:39:46 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
And flu vaccines do work.  They aren't 100% effective in every case, but they keep people healthier by preventing community spread as well.  I presume it would be similar for a Covid vaccine.
We had this discussion upstream. This is really a red herring for me in terms of understanding the level of discussion.
  Flu vaccine not really work, and can never work as intended by CDC in its present formulation. EU is much more honest in this regard. Fluead may work better, but for some reason has deliberately limited availability in US...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:51:24 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 04:39:46 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
And flu vaccines do work.  They aren't 100% effective in every case, but they keep people healthier by preventing community spread as well.  I presume it would be similar for a Covid vaccine.
We had this discussion upstream. This is really a red herring for me in terms of understanding the level of discussion.
  Flu vaccine not really work, and can never work as intended by CDC in its present formulation. EU is much more honest in this regard. Fluead may work better, but for some reason has deliberately limited availability in US...



When I say "work," I don't mean like a measels vaccine where it prevents you from getting the disease.  I mean that they lessen one's ability to get the flu, by both hopefully helping your body develop antibodies, and by preventing community spread by having a signficant number of others develop them. 

It's effectiveness depends on the year and the forecast for the strains that will become prevelent, but they supposedly reduce one's chances by 60% on average.  Which is good considering how deadly it can be for some people.  If that causes me to get the flu once every 20 years versus once every 10 years, I would be fine with those odds.

I've never heard of Fluead.  I will look into it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 05:12:00 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:51:24 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 04:39:46 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
And flu vaccines do work.  They aren't 100% effective in every case, but they keep people healthier by preventing community spread as well.  I presume it would be similar for a Covid vaccine.
We had this discussion upstream. This is really a red herring for me in terms of understanding the level of discussion.
  Flu vaccine not really work, and can never work as intended by CDC in its present formulation. EU is much more honest in this regard. Fluead may work better, but for some reason has deliberately limited availability in US...



When I say "work," I don't mean like a measels vaccine where it prevents you from getting the disease.  I mean that they lessen one's ability to get the flu, by both hopefully helping your body develop antibodies, and by preventing community spread by having a signficant number of others develop them. 

It's effectiveness depends on the year and the forecast for the strains that will become prevelent, but they supposedly reduce one's chances by 60% on average.  Which is good considering how deadly it can be for some people.  If that causes me to get the flu once every 20 years versus once every 10 years, I would be fine with those odds.

I've never heard of Fluead.  I will look into it.
60% is the best result of the past 15 years, an average of 30-40% improvement is a good guess. 25% this year for adults, actually. And good numbers are undermined by virus mutations, with mutated virus propagation faciliated (sic!) by vaccinated herd as fluad is not widely used.
The only good thing about flu vaccine is that we'll have pipeline for covid one when - and if - it is developed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 06:32:34 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 05:12:00 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:51:24 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 04:39:46 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 04:14:47 PM
And flu vaccines do work.  They aren't 100% effective in every case, but they keep people healthier by preventing community spread as well.  I presume it would be similar for a Covid vaccine.
We had this discussion upstream. This is really a red herring for me in terms of understanding the level of discussion.
  Flu vaccine not really work, and can never work as intended by CDC in its present formulation. EU is much more honest in this regard. Fluead may work better, but for some reason has deliberately limited availability in US...



When I say "work," I don't mean like a measels vaccine where it prevents you from getting the disease.  I mean that they lessen one's ability to get the flu, by both hopefully helping your body develop antibodies, and by preventing community spread by having a signficant number of others develop them. 

It's effectiveness depends on the year and the forecast for the strains that will become prevelent, but they supposedly reduce one's chances by 60% on average.  Which is good considering how deadly it can be for some people.  If that causes me to get the flu once every 20 years versus once every 10 years, I would be fine with those odds.

I've never heard of Fluead.  I will look into it.
60% is the best result of the past 15 years, an average of 30-40% improvement is a good guess. 25% this year for adults, actually. And good numbers are undermined by virus mutations, with mutated virus propagation faciliated (sic!) by vaccinated herd as fluad is not widely used.
The only good thing about flu vaccine is that we'll have pipeline for covid one when - and if - it is developed.

Don't agree with your numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:51:59 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 06:32:34 PM
Don't agree with your numbers.
That's why I always assume people don't know about flu vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 28, 2020, 07:07:23 PM
Sad but funny story out of Kentucky concerning all this.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/nation-world/national/article242331811.html#storylink=bignews_latest

TL;DR: Yesterday at his press conference, the governor said that someone had fraudulently filed for unemployment benefits in the name of Tupac Shakur, which was a joke that unfortunately further impeded the overburdened unemployment system. Turns out, there is actually someone named Tupac Malik Shakur who lives in Lexington and goes by "Malik", lost his jobs as a cook at two restaurants in Lexington, and filed for unemployment.  So the governor personally called him to apologize and then publicly apologized at his presser/briefing today. Seems that Mr. Shakur called the Lexington newspaper, and in turn a reporter contacted the governor's office and gave the governor his phone number. The official excuse statement was that they had difficulty verifying his claim. But the reporter was able to talk to the husband of the restaurants' owner who stated that yes, they employed someone with that name. So everyone knows him as Malik Shakur, but he had to use his legal first name on the official filing (something I'm familiar with, since I go by my initials everywhere except where I can't) and that caused someone in the unemployment office to flag his application.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 28, 2020, 07:40:18 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 28, 2020, 02:20:17 PM
That's The Bulwark. A bunch of Never Trumpers. If the president was talking about keeping things shutdown for the foreseeable future, they'd be advocating opening everything now.

Not exactly a neutral source... nonetheless the broad point is valid that we shouldn't underestimate the degree of economic disruption we're really facing.

We're already seeing some companies looking into permanently scaling back how much office space they're renting as they permit or even encourage working from home to be more commonplace permanently. This makes sense from a business perspective - real estate costs money, if you can operate just as effectively with less of it, you'd be foolish not to. But if you own and operate office space, or work for a company that does... well, sucks to be you.

Likewise, I don't see movie theaters really surviving - they're already obsolete businesses that have only survived this long due to moviemakers insisting on having initial releases exclusively in theaters. Moviemakers are now releasing movies that were supposed to be for theaters directly to home streaming services, and being forced to figure out how to make their businesses work with this business model. Once they've figured this out, will they really go back to releasing movies to theaters? Will they even have this as a feasible option, if a lot of theater companies end up in Chapter 7 by the end of the year?
On the other hand, expect some combination of future movies having lower production budgets, and the likes of Netflix getting more expensive since moviemakers are going to look for ways to replace lost box office revenue.

Restaurants, too... we're already seeing places that are used to serving as primarily dine-in establishments close because they've found they aren't getting enough business to make money as strictly takeout/delivery establishments. They will attempt to reopen when they are allowed to do dine-in again, but they will see lower than normal customer volumes as a lot of people will still not want to dine-in at any restaurant. Many will go out of business as a result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 07:54:58 PM
I can't see movie theaters going away, not when you had movies in the last three decades raking in over Billion in ticket sales over the past three decades.  It might be hard to get investors to do big budget movies in the same scale we're used to.  I think that opens the door for some more creative newer movies that have a lower budget but have to take chances to compete for audiences.  Downloads will have their place but I can't see people wanting to stay home forever when going to movie on a night out or day off has been such an ingrained thing to do for so long. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 28, 2020, 08:13:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 07:54:58 PM
I can't see movie theaters going away, not when you had movies in the last three decades raking in over Billion in ticket sales over the past three decades.  It might be hard to get investors to do big budget movies in the same scale we're used to.  I think that opens the door for some more creative newer movies that have a lower budget but have to take chances to compete for audiences.  Downloads will have their place but I can't see people wanting to stay home forever when going to movie on a night out or day off has been such an ingrained thing to do for so long. 

IMO things won't go back to "normal" overnight, and there will be changes, but from my perspective a lot of people will finally say f*** it and take their chances. If they are unscathed, they'll continue to roll the dice. We have Thai rice seemingly on every other corner. A few may fail, but others may be able to fill that void.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:21:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 07:54:58 PM
I can't see movie theaters going away, not when you had movies in the last three decades raking in over Billion in ticket sales over the past three decades.  It might be hard to get investors to do big budget movies in the same scale we're used to.  I think that opens the door for some more creative newer movies that have a lower budget but have to take chances to compete for audiences.  Downloads will have their place but I can't see people wanting to stay home forever when going to movie on a night out or day off has been such an ingrained thing to do for so long.
movie ticket sales peaked around 2002 and are on decline. Many people predicted business will be losing steam with all those home options, and now that decay can accelerate even further. If anything, I can envision movie theaters becoming more premium experience for old timers (it already goes premium way with 3D, IMAX, some super-duper sound and whatever else) - and, coincidently, fewer people in the room, and likely fewer venues. Something along the lines of live theater being premium experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 08:27:03 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:21:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 07:54:58 PM
I can't see movie theaters going away, not when you had movies in the last three decades raking in over Billion in ticket sales over the past three decades.  It might be hard to get investors to do big budget movies in the same scale we're used to.  I think that opens the door for some more creative newer movies that have a lower budget but have to take chances to compete for audiences.  Downloads will have their place but I can't see people wanting to stay home forever when going to movie on a night out or day off has been such an ingrained thing to do for so long.
movie ticket sales peaked around 2002 and are on decline. Many people predicted business will be losing steam with all those home options, and now that decay can accelerate even further. If anything, I can envision movie theaters becoming more premium experience for old timers (it already goes premium way with 3D, IMAX, some super-duper sound and whatever else) - and, coincidently, fewer people in the room, and likely fewer venues. Something along the lines of live theater being premium experience.

I wouldn't mind a premium experience that I have to pay more for but only it resulted in movies that aren't fully oriented towards being the "popcorn"  variety.  It seems like the biggest problem the movie industry hasn't isn't getting people watch but a lack of creativity and willingness to try new things.  How many Disney and 80s movie remakes to we really need at this point?...especially when they usually aren't done well. 

People as a whole get over almost everything given enough time.  Sure things won't be the same as before but I'd argue they needed to be improved upon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:42:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:51:59 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 06:32:34 PM
Don't agree with your numbers.
That's why I always assume people don't know about flu vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html



From the FAQ in the link:

"CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

So yeah I slightly overstated it. But that's still effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 09:29:21 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:42:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:51:59 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 06:32:34 PM
Don't agree with your numbers.
That's why I always assume people don't know about flu vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html



From the FAQ in the link:

"CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

So yeah I slightly overstated it. But that's still effective.
Fine print: It happened once in the past 5 years, when vaccine efficiency was just below 50%. Those are some beautiful small details!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 28, 2020, 09:32:42 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 08:21:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 07:54:58 PM
I can't see movie theaters going away, not when you had movies in the last three decades raking in over Billion in ticket sales over the past three decades.  It might be hard to get investors to do big budget movies in the same scale we're used to.  I think that opens the door for some more creative newer movies that have a lower budget but have to take chances to compete for audiences.  Downloads will have their place but I can't see people wanting to stay home forever when going to movie on a night out or day off has been such an ingrained thing to do for so long.
movie ticket sales peaked around 2002 and are on decline. Many people predicted business will be losing steam with all those home options, and now that decay can accelerate even further. If anything, I can envision movie theaters becoming more premium experience for old timers (it already goes premium way with 3D, IMAX, some super-duper sound and whatever else) - and, coincidently, fewer people in the room, and likely fewer venues. Something along the lines of live theater being premium experience.
There was a large consolidation in the number of multiplexes in my area.  Something on the order of a 50% reduction in the number of locations.  This resulted in the remaining locations being expanded with deluxe theaters and IMAX.

The only real big player in CT was National Amusements, who operated Showcase Cinemas and Multiplex Cinemas.  Now they've been rebranded as Cinemark.
AMC has moved into a couple of older NA locations and there's a few drafthouse-style theaters in Hartford.

I remember 15 years ago weekends were basically dedicated to catching up on new releases.  Most of the people that go now are from poorer neighborhoods or are just weird in general.  The food is never reasonably priced. Tickets are only reasonably priced on Tuesday.  People are on their phones or being loud.  It's just not a lucrative experience.

I think a bigger draw away from film as a media is that television has become more cinematic in the way the teleplays are written and the directing and lighting styles.  Since streaming services don't have commercial breaks there's more time that can be dedicated to the plot and there's no interruption.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:26 PM
https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges (https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges)


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules)


Now the leaders of the Sacramento and San Diego Shelter in place protests sues Governor Newsom over free speech violations and "Rights Infringement" issues in response to the Mask and Shelter in place orders of California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 09:48:56 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:26 PM
https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges (https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges)


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules)


Now the leaders of the Sacramento and San Diego Shelter in place protests sues Governor Newsom over free speech violations and "Rights Infringement" issues in response to the Mask and Shelter in place orders pf California.

Some people seem hell bent on trying to get the police to martyr them with an arrest.  From what I've seen almost every police department in California won't actually go ahead with arrests and charges on Stay At Home Orders  unless pushed to no other recourse.  Even still it seems most departments will give tons of warnings to disperse or not gather before bothering with charges.  That's not even close to the characteristic of a "Police State."  

Besides it's not the police who are really deciding on public health policies in California.  A more effective "protest"  would probably be social media based and not something my Mom would have done in the 1960s. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 10:08:42 PM
California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Colorado joined a western states pact to pledge to use science to fight covid-19. Take notes Georgia...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 28, 2020, 10:12:54 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:26 PM
https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges (https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges)


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules)


Now the leaders of the Sacramento and San Diego Shelter in place protests sues Governor Newsom over free speech violations and "Rights Infringement" issues in response to the Mask and Shelter in place orders pf California.
I don't see how you can get away with prosecuting them for protesting.  It would have to be for the social distancing.

Again, it would really help if the governor said, "provided they follow social distancing guidelines, nothing in this order shall preclude or infringe on an individual's basic Consititutional rights."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 10:25:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 10:08:42 PM
California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Colorado joined a western states pact to pledge to use science to fight covid-19. Take notes Georgia...

Given how much heat California is getting right now for staying almost fully restricted it's not really clear at the moment if who really has it right.  That probably won't be known or fully understood probably for at least a year.  Los Angeles County is half the issue in California but there is a blanket policy for everyone else in the state right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 11:01:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 09:48:56 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:26 PM
https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges (https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges)


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules)


Now the leaders of the Sacramento and San Diego Shelter in place protests sues Governor Newsom over free speech violations and "Rights Infringement" issues in response to the Mask and Shelter in place orders pf California.

Some people seem hell bent on trying to get the police to martyr them with an arrest.  From what I've seen almost every police department in California won't actually go ahead with arrests and charges on Stay At Home Orders  unless pushed to no other recourse.  Even still it seems most departments will give tons of warnings to disperse or not gather before bothering with charges.  That's not even close to the characteristic of a "Police State."  

Besides it's not the police who are really deciding on public health policies in California.  A more effective "protest"  would probably be social media based and not something my Mom would have done in the 1960s.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tony-spell-louisiana-pastor-house-arrest-church-services-coronavirus-lockdown/
All Law Enforcement all over the nation can do is investigate the leaders of the protests who are inciting the social distancing violations.


https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/louisiana-pastor-blows-social-distancing-to-hold-sunday-service/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on April 28, 2020, 11:32:53 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 10:25:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 10:08:42 PM
California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Colorado joined a western states pact to pledge to use science to fight covid-19. Take notes Georgia...

Given how much heat California is getting right now for staying almost fully restricted it's not really clear at the moment if who really has it right.  That probably won't be known or fully understood probably for at least a year.  Los Angeles County is half the issue in California but there is a blanket policy for everyone else in the state right now. 

Restrictions only work at a large scale, so limiting it to just the LA metro area would be pointless. People would travel out and bring the virus with them (as we've seen with rural cases in Washington, or the food plant shutdowns in the Midwest).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 28, 2020, 11:37:22 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 28, 2020, 11:32:53 PM
Restrictions only work at a large scale, so limiting it to just the LA metro area would be pointless. People would travel out and bring the virus with them (as we've seen with rural cases in Washington, or the food plant shutdowns in the Midwest).

Well... or you restrict travel so people can't do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 11:46:33 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 11:01:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 28, 2020, 09:48:56 PM
Quote from: bing101 on April 28, 2020, 09:39:26 PM
https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges (https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/organizer-of-downtown-san-diego-covid-19-protest-faces-arrest-possible-charges)


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/newsom-sued-by-california-residents-demanding-end-to-stay-at-home-rules)


Now the leaders of the Sacramento and San Diego Shelter in place protests sues Governor Newsom over free speech violations and "Rights Infringement" issues in response to the Mask and Shelter in place orders pf California.

Some people seem hell bent on trying to get the police to martyr them with an arrest.  From what I've seen almost every police department in California won't actually go ahead with arrests and charges on Stay At Home Orders  unless pushed to no other recourse.  Even still it seems most departments will give tons of warnings to disperse or not gather before bothering with charges.  That's not even close to the characteristic of a "Police State."  

Besides it's not the police who are really deciding on public health policies in California.  A more effective "protest"  would probably be social media based and not something my Mom would have done in the 1960s.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tony-spell-louisiana-pastor-house-arrest-church-services-coronavirus-lockdown/
All Law Enforcement all over the nation can do is investigate the leaders of the protests who are inciting the social distancing violations.


https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/louisiana-pastor-blows-social-distancing-to-hold-sunday-service/

They probably don't even want.  Most departments don't want to waste a ton of time on misdemeanor crimes that will he cited down anyways. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 29, 2020, 01:02:01 AM
Meat Processing plants ended up being declared essential via the Defense Production Act:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-sign-order-keeping-meat-182402327.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 29, 2020, 01:03:40 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 28, 2020, 11:37:22 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 28, 2020, 11:32:53 PM
Restrictions only work at a large scale, so limiting it to just the LA metro area would be pointless. People would travel out and bring the virus with them (as we've seen with rural cases in Washington, or the food plant shutdowns in the Midwest).

Well... or you restrict travel so people can't do that.

I shall imagine that it's easier to say "if you're in [state], don't do [this]", rather than saying "if you fall inside this imaginary line, don't do [this]". Which is exactly why things like metro areas aren't be blocked off. No one knows where they start and end, apart from those delineated by obvious geography like rivers (and even those are typically state or county boundaries, which don't always correspond to metro areas).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 29, 2020, 03:59:44 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 10:08:42 PM
California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Colorado joined a western states pact to pledge to use science to fight covid-19. Take notes Georgia...

Well, Georgia says it's using science too. But science isn't all that matters.

FWIW, I'm not crazy about Georgia (and South Carolina) not just adopting liberal statewide policies, but also preempting local restrictions to address things like the outbreak in the Albany GA area. Other states, like Tennessee, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, have liberal statewide policies but are allowing local governments to act, or in South Dakota's case putting in a targeted state order to deal with a meatpacking plant outbreak in the southeastern corner of the state while largely leaving alone the distant northwestern corner where there are no cases so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 29, 2020, 08:00:31 AM
4 people from the Flu Klux Klan ReOpen NC rally were arrested yesterday, one of which broke the gate at the governor's mansion. They look so proud in their mugshots.

https://www.wral.com/gate-at-governor-s-mansion-damaged-during-reopennc-rally-police-say/19076638/ (https://www.wral.com/gate-at-governor-s-mansion-damaged-during-reopennc-rally-police-say/19076638/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 29, 2020, 08:01:20 AM
Quote from: jakeroot on April 29, 2020, 01:03:40 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 28, 2020, 11:37:22 PM
Quote from: Bruce on April 28, 2020, 11:32:53 PM
Restrictions only work at a large scale, so limiting it to just the LA metro area would be pointless. People would travel out and bring the virus with them (as we've seen with rural cases in Washington, or the food plant shutdowns in the Midwest).

Well... or you restrict travel so people can't do that.

I shall imagine that it's easier to say "if you're in [state], don't do [this]", rather than saying "if you fall inside this imaginary line, don't do [this]". Which is exactly why things like metro areas aren't be blocked off. No one knows where they start and end, apart from those delineated by obvious geography like rivers (and even those are typically state or county boundaries, which don't always correspond to metro areas).

The San Gabriel Mountains seem to be aching as a pretty hard geographic barrier right now towards northern spread just as the Diablo Range was for San Francisco Bay.  The case loads in California drop off the map once a large mountain range near the big cities is encountered.  It takes an effort to get from the big cities in California, there isn't that wall to wall civilization that is seen out East. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 29, 2020, 08:11:38 AM
The worst case model was estimating 2.2 million American deaths if we did nothing to mitigate the virus.  But it looks like the experts overestimated the fatality rate of this virus.  Even if every single American gets infected and assuming a 0.63% death rate (the highest death rate of the antibody studies listed below), there would be 2.07 million deaths (which is 130k fewer deaths than the worst case scenario model).  Here are estimated coronavirus death rates based on antibody testing performed throughout the world:

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/24/00/27577628-8244533-image-a-129_1587683806111.jpg)

If you average all these antibody studies the death rate for coronavirus would be 0.3% or 3x more deadly than the flu.  Assuming a 0.3% death rate and 100% of Americans infected, there would be 990k deaths.  There have been recent antibody testing done in NY and Governor Cuomo is stated as saying the New York state fatality rate appears to be 0.5 percent (which is in the range of the other antibody tests done throughout the world). 


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 29, 2020, 08:18:19 AM
To whoever made that graphic: Chelsea is not part of Boston.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 29, 2020, 08:51:19 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 09:29:21 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:42:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:51:59 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 06:32:34 PM
Don't agree with your numbers.
That's why I always assume people don't know about flu vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html



From the FAQ in the link:

"CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

So yeah I slightly overstated it. But that's still effective.
Fine print: It happened once in the past 5 years, when vaccine efficiency was just below 50%. Those are some beautiful small details!



My point was a vaccine that would as well as the flu vaccine, combined with effective treatment would pretty much get us back to normal.  And everyone should get it regardless of how healthy you are and where you live because it helps against community spread.

That would be an "effective" vaccine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 29, 2020, 08:52:13 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 29, 2020, 08:11:38 AM
The worst case model was estimating 2.2 million American deaths if we did nothing to mitigate the virus.  But it looks like the experts overestimated the fatality rate of this virus.  Even if every single American gets infected and assuming a 0.63% death rate (the highest death rate of the antibody studies listed below), there would be 2.07 million deaths (which is 130k fewer deaths than the worst case scenario model).  Here are estimated coronavirus death rates based on antibody testing performed throughout the world:

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/24/00/27577628-8244533-image-a-129_1587683806111.jpg)

If you average all these antibody studies the death rate for coronavirus would be 0.3% or 3x more deadly than the flu.  Assuming a 0.3% death rate and 100% of Americans infected, there would be 990k deaths.  There have been recent antibody testing done in NY and Governor Cuomo is stated as saying the New York state fatality rate appears to be 0.5 percent (which is in the range of the other antibody tests done throughout the world). 





I think a lot of the reasons why this isn't as deadly as they projected is because the medical community is getting better at treating the disease. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 29, 2020, 08:53:00 AM
The number would be higher for coronavirus than flu, as flu mutates faster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 29, 2020, 09:15:55 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 29, 2020, 08:51:19 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 09:29:21 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:42:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 28, 2020, 06:51:59 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 06:32:34 PM
Don't agree with your numbers.
That's why I always assume people don't know about flu vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html



From the FAQ in the link:

"CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

So yeah I slightly overstated it. But that's still effective.
Fine print: It happened once in the past 5 years, when vaccine efficiency was just below 50%. Those are some beautiful small details!



My point was a vaccine that would as well as the flu vaccine, combined with effective treatment would pretty much get us back to normal.  And everyone should get it regardless of how healthy you are and where you live because it helps against community spread.

That would be an "effective" vaccine.
Any somewhat working vaccine for covid would be a great thing to have. I was more saying that flu vaccine is nowere near what vaccine should look like.
Biggest difference between flu and covid in this regard is that for covid animal-to-human transmission is an event of decade, if not century - so no guesswork would be required; while for flu such transmission is a regular event, requiring a lot of guesswork - and as a result an already subpar vaccine goes into questionable return of investment category.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 29, 2020, 09:17:55 AM
The IHME model is projecting 69,456 deaths by May 13th (2 weeks from now).  Today we stand at 59,266 deaths.  Over the course of 14 days the model is projecting an average of 727 deaths per day when we haven't seen under 1000 deaths since March 30th?  And it's not as if the daily cases have been dropping (they have just flattened) so I don't understand this optimism for a big drop in daily deaths.  By May 13th I'd expect to see around 80k deaths not 70k (and 10k deaths over the course of 2 weeks is a big difference)!

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 29, 2020, 09:24:17 AM
It's a simple math equation, right?  number of deaths / number of infections (spread) = death rate. 

For number of deaths, for both flu and with COVID-19, we can influence the number of deaths by the types of treatments. However, at first, there weren't any known COVID-19 treatments.  That fortunately is changing.  So we were, and still, less able to influence the number of COVID-19 deaths via treatment.

In terms of the number of infections, for the flu, the vaccine helps control the number of infections.  Also, our body is better equipped to naturally fight off the flu.  We have neither for COVID-19, yet.  In addition, it is believed that COVID-19 spreads easier...above reasons are part of that...and also largely because of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, which is a bigger factor with COVID-19 vs the flu.  In addition, we didn't understand the asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic part of this (and some people are still in denial about that). 

So because COVID-19 is still new, we're still trying to understand how both parts of the equation are impacted.  The only control we believe we have right now is to slow the rate of the number of infections by physical distancing.

And the final factor is timing...the number of infections and therefore deaths over time...in which Italy was the worst case scenario.

In order to control the number (and timing) of the deaths, it's simple algebra.
 
# of infections * death rate = number of deaths.

The question that everyone is arguing over is:  what is an acceptable # of deaths and in what timeframe vs the economic damage done, since right now, we can't really control either factor via science (treatments/vaccines). The only control we have is physical distancing, which creates an opposing factor...slowing movement of people slows the economy.

There is no perfect answer.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on April 29, 2020, 09:25:17 AM
All this time I've been wondering if FL 19 and FL 40 are closed in the Ocala National Forest, but somehow I doubt it.

Also, why have there been so many people trying to promote the idea that warm weather hinders the spread of the virus when so many people have been dying in Florida?

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on April 29, 2020, 09:51:39 AM
Quote from: oscar on April 29, 2020, 03:59:44 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 28, 2020, 10:08:42 PM
California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Colorado joined a western states pact to pledge to use science to fight covid-19. Take notes Georgia...

Well, Georgia says it's using science too. But science isn't all that matters.

FWIW, I'm not crazy about Georgia (and South Carolina) not just adopting liberal statewide policies, but also preempting local restrictions to address things like the outbreak in the Albany GA area. Other states, like Tennessee, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, have liberal statewide policies but are allowing local governments to act, or in South Dakota's case putting in a targeted state order to deal with a meatpacking plant outbreak in the southeastern corner of the state while largely leaving alone the distant northwestern corner where there are no cases so far.

As a Georgia resident, I'd say this largely mirrors my feelings. There very likely are some regions of the state that can start relaxing, but some places definitely cannot yet. Local authorities being essentially stripped of their power by our governor is the very last thing we need right now.

FWIW, in my part of the inner Atlanta suburbs, a few places have reopened, but most restaurants, etc., have opted not to change operations yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on April 29, 2020, 10:47:48 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 28, 2020, 10:35:28 AM
Flattening the curve isn't just about spreading out the infections over time--it's about reducing the total number of infections.  Just accepting that everybody will eventually get infected and 1% of the population will die is not acceptable.  There are going to have to be some long term restrictions that remain until we get a vaccine:
That's strange... when I first heard of flattening the curve, the opposite was true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 29, 2020, 10:54:09 AM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on April 29, 2020, 09:25:17 AM
All this time I've been wondering if FL 19 and FL 40 are closed in the Ocala National Forest, but somehow I doubt it.


They can't close roads going through national forests.  Half of northern Wisconsin would be inaccessible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 29, 2020, 11:56:06 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 29, 2020, 08:52:13 AMI think a lot of the reasons why this isn't as deadly as they projected is because the medical community is getting better at treating the disease.

It is partly that, and partly also mitigation of spread having (largely) prevented overruns of intensive-care resource.

Quote from: tradephoric on April 29, 2020, 09:17:55 AMThe IHME model is projecting 69,456 deaths by May 13th (2 weeks from now).  Today we stand at 59,266 deaths.  Over the course of 14 days the model is projecting an average of 727 deaths per day when we haven't seen under 1000 deaths since March 30th?  And it's not as if the daily cases have been dropping (they have just flattened) so I don't understand this optimism for a big drop in daily deaths.  By May 13th I'd expect to see around 80k deaths not 70k (and 10k deaths over the course of 2 weeks is a big difference)!

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The current version of the IHME model predicts 72,860 deaths by August 4.  It is updated periodically (they say "daily," but I think what they really mean is that an update is likely to come out on any given day; many days pass with no update), and since it became available in late March, I have seen the August 4 total fatality estimate fluctuate from as low as 60,000 to as high as 80,000.  Old instances of the model are archived online as CSV files, so it is only the current model that has the pretty plots and graphs.

As for estimated total fatality count by May 13, the numbers I see diverge from source to source and now that the numbers are in the tens of thousands, the differences are in the thousands.  For example, Wikipedia's count page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) shows us with 52,486 deaths through yesterday, while the JHU dashboard currently shows us with 58,471 deaths.

I have been keeping track of when US daily fatalities have been over 1,000.  We passed that threshold on April 1 (has seemingly been revised to March 31) and are not forecast to retreat back over it until May 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 29, 2020, 12:18:29 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 29, 2020, 11:56:06 AM

The current version of the IHME model predicts 72,860 deaths by August 4.  It is updated periodically (they say "daily," but I think what they really mean is that an update is likely to come out on any given day; many days pass with no update), and since it became available in late March, I have seen the August 4 total fatality estimate fluctuate from as low as 60,000 to as high as 80,000.  Old instances of the model are archived online as CSV files, so it is only the current model that has the pretty plots and graphs.

As for estimated total fatality count by May 13, the numbers I see diverge from source to source and now that the numbers are in the tens of thousands, the differences are in the thousands.  For example, Wikipedia's count page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) shows us with 52,486 deaths through yesterday, while the JHU dashboard currently shows us with 58,471 deaths.

I have been keeping track of when US daily fatalities have been over 1,000.  We passed that threshold on April 1 (has seemingly been revised to March 31) and are not forecast to retreat back over it until May 4.

Thanks for the  info regarding the IHME model.  I came across a study that looks at the accuracy of the model and the results were pretty striking (on its inaccuracies):

QuoteOur results suggest that the IHME model substantially underestimates the uncertainty associated with COVID19death count predictions.  We would expect to see approximately 5% of the observed number of deaths to falloutside the 95% prediction intervals.  In reality, we found that the observed percentage of death counts that lieoutside the 95% PI to be in the range 49% - 73%, which is more than an order of magnitude above the expectedpercentage.  Moreover, we would expect to see 2.5% of the observed death counts fall above and below the PI.In practice, the observed percentages were asymmetric, with the direction of the bias fluctuating across days.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/centre-for-translational-data-sience/statistical_accuracy_covid19_predictions_ihme_model.pdf


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 29, 2020, 02:20:33 PM
Looks like the coronavirus could have originally escaped from a virology lab in Wuhan...

https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503 (https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 29, 2020, 03:03:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 29, 2020, 02:20:33 PM
Looks like the coronavirus could have originally escaped from a virology lab in Wuhan...

https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503 (https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503)
In separate news
Due to delay of medical supplies shipments US re-opening pushed back by another two weeks...  [ /sarcasm]
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 29, 2020, 03:54:17 PM
Slate has an article (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/sweden-coronavirus-response-death-social-distancing.html) by a temporarily returned Swedish expat that tears brutally into the COVID-19 response in Sweden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 29, 2020, 03:59:20 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 29, 2020, 02:20:33 PM
Looks like the coronavirus could have originally escaped from a virology lab in Wuhan...

https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503 (https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503)

To add to this...

https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741 (https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 29, 2020, 04:52:05 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 29, 2020, 02:20:33 PM
Looks like the coronavirus could have originally escaped from a virology lab in Wuhan...

https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503 (https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503)


That article does a lot only to come to the conclusion buried down deep:  "To be sure, there's no evidence that SARS-Cov-2 came from the Wuhan lab, nor that the virus is the product of engineering. Most scientists believe, based on the evidence available, that a natural origin is the most likely explanation."

So there's that.

But the story about the lab and its purpose is problematic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 29, 2020, 06:17:11 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.

Yeah, the choice between "go into work, catch coronavirus, and die" and "don't go into work, lose your job, lose your house, live under a bridge and die."

Some choice!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on April 29, 2020, 06:20:09 PM


Quote from: Scott5114 on April 29, 2020, 06:17:11 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.

Yeah, the choice between "go into work, catch coronavirus, and die" and "don't go into work, lose your job, lose your house, live under a bridge and die."

Some choice!

It wouldn't be a choice if Trump and Congress would provide proper economic relief to individuals rather then giving millions to businesses that don't need it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:21:42 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 09:07:28 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Businesses making decisions that benefit society–especially in this specific context–are likely to attract more customers.  If Store A implements social distancing measures and Store B does not, then any potential customers who are concerned about the virus will be more likely to shop at Store A.  You say the measures would not be in that stores financial interest, but I say it gets them more customers in the door.

You say theories that aren't borne out in reality. Efficacy of social distancing measures are not going to be the primary concern that shoppers have when they choose a place to do business with. Price, convenience, product selection, and brand loyalty are, just as they always are.

Check out this poll that someone did on the OKCTalk forums:
(https://i.imgur.com/RfhEQeb.png)

You can argue these people have the freedom to endanger themselves by choosing to patronize a store that refuses to implement social distancing. But that means more possible infections, more potential asymptomatic spreaders, and more people to potentially take up a hospital bed that you might need later on.

The wrong question was asked.

You might get different results to "Given the choice between Store A with ______ (fill in the distancing protocol) and Store B without ______, would you be more likely to shop at Store A than at Store B?"

Plenty of people would shop at a store without those measures, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't prefer not to or choose which store to go to based on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:23:07 PM
Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 09:59:11 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM

Quote from: vdeane on April 27, 2020, 02:05:18 PM
The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.

I take it you still believe in that V-shaped recovery?  Sorry, that's not going to happen.  Just because stay at home orders lift doesn't mean that people will magically return to normal behavior.  And that won't make businesses that already went under solvent again, it won't make up for spending from furloughed or laid off workers, etc.  And honestly, it's even worse than the article below implies, which doesn't mention that some businesses have already failed or that a large portion of the restaurant industry was based on the idea that people eat out on their lunch breaks (which is also one of the reasons for grocery shortages) - which isn't happening now that people are working from home, and likely will at higher levels than before even after a vaccine or treatment that allows for full normalcy is developed and deployed.  Lots of trends that would have happened over the next decade (increased telework, businesses that were on the decline, etc.) are now happening in the span of a few weeks.  With hour interconnected our economy is, that's going to be traumatic, no matter how this goes.

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Quote
The movement to "reopen"  America is a fallacy based on a fantasy.

The fallacy is the notion that lifting stay-at-home orders will result in people going back to their normal routines. This is false. The state-issued stay-at-home orders did not determine most people's desires to stay home–they merely ratified behaviors that the vast majority of people and institutions were already adopting in response to COVID-19.

The fantasy is that we can go back to what the world looked like 12 weeks ago. This is not possible now and will not be possible until we possess a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

Understand that I am not saying that stay-at-home orders should be indefinite. What I am saying is that whenever the stay-at-home orders are rolled back–whether it is tomorrow or a month from now–it will not result in anything like a "reopening"  of the country.  And the sooner people grasp how completely and fundamentally the world has changed, the faster we'll be able to adapt to this new reality.

We are not looking at a blip that everyone will soon forget and we'll all go back and pretend it never happened.  This is bigger than 9/11 - a LOT bigger.

Aren't you sort of proving my point that it's the shutdown that killed the economy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 29, 2020, 06:26:15 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:23:07 PM

Aren't you sort of proving my point that it's the shutdown that killed the economy?

My sources say it was a contributing factor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:32:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:57:10 AM

Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
The economy would have endured the pandemic.

LOL.  No it wouldn't have.  Are you really this naive?  Without the government shutdowns, the pandemic would have been worse.  More people would be sick and die, which will would have caused people to stop going out anyway.

I believe that more businesses closed because they were forced to close by the government than would have closed if not forced to.  I believe that fewer people are spending their money at businesses because they're prevented by the government than would be if not prevented.  Are you really that naive, that you believe no businesses would have found a way to make it work?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on April 29, 2020, 06:40:33 PM
The dead spend no money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 06:40:59 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 29, 2020, 06:26:15 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:23:07 PM

Aren't you sort of proving my point that it's the shutdown that killed the economy?

My sources say it was a contributing factor.

The economy was going to die anyway.  Actually, this is more like an induced coma, because it's still alive.  If we'd done nothing and let the virus ravage the nation, the number of sick and dead would be much higher, people would still be staying home because of fear, and instead of being well supplied and getting fat (even if unhappy), we'd be scared and starving, too, after the supply chain shut down because of people either refusing or being unable to go to work.  I would argue that we saved the economy, because even though it's unhealthy, it is still running.  No amount of human sacrifice was going to save the economy, so we had to save the people to do that.

I'm not advocating that our situation continue forever, but I'm saying that it wasn't the wrong decision to make.  What it did was to us buy us time to come up with a better approach.  A combination of masks, distance and separation, testing, reduction of interactions, and hopefully soon a treatment will give us a way forward.  People will still die, and people will still be unhappy, and people will still wish for better times, but there are no good options.  Any action to relieve one kind of suffering will increase another kind, so we have to find a balance that hurts least.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on April 29, 2020, 06:41:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:21:42 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 27, 2020, 09:07:28 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
Businesses making decisions that benefit society–especially in this specific context–are likely to attract more customers.  If Store A implements social distancing measures and Store B does not, then any potential customers who are concerned about the virus will be more likely to shop at Store A.  You say the measures would not be in that stores financial interest, but I say it gets them more customers in the door.

You say theories that aren't borne out in reality. Efficacy of social distancing measures are not going to be the primary concern that shoppers have when they choose a place to do business with. Price, convenience, product selection, and brand loyalty are, just as they always are.

Check out this poll that someone did on the OKCTalk forums:
(https://i.imgur.com/RfhEQeb.png)

You can argue these people have the freedom to endanger themselves by choosing to patronize a store that refuses to implement social distancing. But that means more possible infections, more potential asymptomatic spreaders, and more people to potentially take up a hospital bed that you might need later on.

The wrong question was asked.

You might get different results to "Given the choice between Store A with ______ (fill in the distancing protocol) and Store B without ______, would you be more likely to shop at Store A than at Store B?"

Plenty of people would shop at a store without those measures, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't prefer not to or choose which store to go to based on that.

Still not good enough.

Store A may be thought of as a Wegmans. Store B may be thought of as an Aldi.  Some people will always shop at Wegmans, no matter what.  So the results still wouldn't be conclusive.

You would need to phrase the question with some leading questions, such as: Where do you normally shop? 

Then, using that, would you be more likely or less likely to shop at that store if they instituted one-way aisles.

But that may not be good enough either.  If someone is in an area with only one shopping choice, the supermarket could institute insane policies that you have to go along with, or find something else. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 29, 2020, 06:46:37 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 29, 2020, 06:17:11 PM
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on April 28, 2020, 04:32:35 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 28, 2020, 03:37:16 AM
The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.
They do have a choice.

Yeah, the choice between "go into work, catch coronavirus, and die" and "don't go into work, lose your job, lose your house, live under a bridge and die."

Some choice!

Still, chances of death for everyone long term is still 100%.  I'd rather risk that reported 0.3% mortality rate and still get paid so I can actually do some real living at some point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 29, 2020, 06:46:43 PM
Arkansas is going to start opening May 11. Of course, our death rate is still climbing (up to 57 today) , but big restaurants want their sales.   So who ordered the sacrificial lamb?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:54:03 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:57:10 AM
One thing this pandemic has shown, is that a lot of what makes up the American economy is a facade - like an old western movie set.  It looks good from one angle, but if you really take a look around, it's not very substantive.

Please let us know what country's economy is able to withstand this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:54:56 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 29, 2020, 06:40:33 PM
The dead spend no money.

No, but the millions upon millions of living, healthy Americans could spend plenty of money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:54:56 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 29, 2020, 06:40:33 PM
The dead spend no money.

No, but the millions upon millions of living, healthy Americans could spend plenty of money.

Only if they believe they can go out without getting sick, and only if the supply chains continue to run.  Part of the supply chain is already in danger in spite of the restrictions keeping the numbers down.  If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?  I would argue that we saved the economy by keeping it running at a low level, whereas even the most basic parts of it could have shut down if we'd done nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 07:24:18 PM
Quote from: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?

more than zero
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 29, 2020, 07:27:57 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 07:24:18 PM
Quote from: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?

more than zero
How much more than zero? 1 is more than 0.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 07:34:12 PM
more than one
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 29, 2020, 07:55:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 07:34:12 PM
more than one
You and someone else?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:58:53 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 29, 2020, 06:46:43 PM
Arkansas is going to start opening May 11. Of course, our death rate is still climbing (up to 57 today) , but big restaurants want their sales.   So who ordered the sacrificial lamb?

While I believe we did the right thing by shutting down, and probably saved the economy from a worse collapse, the purpose is to give us time to come up with better solutions, not to stay this way forever.  I am hoping that we can start easing up soon.  But even that may not be enough.  Restaurants are a good example.  They rely on packing people in, and you can't wear a mask while eating.  In Texas, restaurants will be limited to 25% of capacity.  I suspect that's a workable solution from the perspective of public health, but I don't know if it's any better economically.  Will it cost more to reopen than the revenue that can be raised with so few patrons?  Will opening make the owners lose money even faster?

We might have to think about life support for businesses that can't make it in the new normal.  It will be enormously expensive, but it may be less expensive than letting so much of the economy fail.  An obvious start is with tax breaks.  That will blow a hole in state budgets, but that same hole will exist if the businesses go under.  Something I just thought of is, for businesses that can prove the need, keeping workers on unemployment while they work, so that the business might have a chance of paying rent and other expenses.  Mass bankruptcies, reorganizing and writing down debt, might spread out the misery enough that things can stay alive.  Things like this will cost a lot, but the alternative might be even worse.  I'd compare this with the shutdown we have now, it's bad, but it might be the lesser of two evils when all you have are bad options.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 29, 2020, 09:37:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:23:07 PM
Aren't you sort of proving my point that it's the shutdown that killed the economy?
No.  Did you even read the article I linked to?  Here it is again: https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Do you seriously think people are just going to go back to normal when stay at home orders lift?  Most won't.  Here's another article, specifically addressing that:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/306053/americans-hesitant-return-normal-short-term.aspx

So: if people aren't willing to return to normal and spend money, does it really matter if the economy is "open" again?  And this didn't start with the stay at home orders, either.  The increased demands for groceries as people stopped eating out began two weeks before stay at home orders began here.  Heck, just look at the Utica roadmeet - it was cancelled a whole week before NY's stay at home order was extended to include the date it had been scheduled for.  It wasn't the stay at home order that caused the cancellation - if it was, then it wouldn't have been cancelled until a week later - but the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on April 29, 2020, 10:35:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:32:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:57:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
The economy would have endured the pandemic.
LOL.  No it wouldn't have.  Are you really this naive?  Without the government shutdowns, the pandemic would have been worse.  More people would be sick and die, which will would have caused people to stop going out anyway.
I believe that more businesses closed because they were forced to close by the government than would have closed if not forced to.  I believe that fewer people are spending their money at businesses because they're prevented by the government than would be if not prevented.  Are you really that naive, that you believe no businesses would have found a way to make it work?

I am with vdeane and SEWIGuy on this (as I basically already said in Reply# 2360). The recession was absolutely, 100% inevitable, and absolutely, 100% caused by the pandemic. Government action may have "worsened" it in the absolute sense of economic activity, but it would have been an even bigger disaster in terms of the lives lost and the long-term economic impacts, if they took any less action or, worse, no action at all.

Some businesses would have found ways to make it work, but I think it would have actually been much more traumatic, caused much faster spreading of the virus, and sowed much more confusion to have individual businesses figure out what works on their own. Seriously, try to imagine if nothing had been done by the government to curb the spread of the virus. It would be a lot more confusing and a lot scarier than it is now, and the majority of the population would be social distancing and staying home by now anyways. The only difference would be that cases would still be growing, and the economy would still be spiraling into a deeper hole. A shuttered economy at least provides universal clarity about the situation and sets the economic floor, so that at least we know it isn't going to keep getting worse from here.

And for closed businesses, each to their own, but I would much rather be told "you're temporarily closed", than have sales start spiraling downward for months on end, with no end in sight. By the time the closures occurred, the inevitably of the situation should have been obvious. At least this way they're not spending money on payroll and overheads this whole time when it ultimately wasn't going to be sustainable to stay open no matter what.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on April 29, 2020, 10:36:50 PM
That says something when you care more about a dead economy than dead citizens.

I myself have no intention of going to eat out so I can sacrifice my life for big business.  I intend to wait at least a couple weeks and monitor the situation.  I might carry-out a pizza, but I don't intend to patronize my favorite burger joint or Thai rice cafe until I am conformable going out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 29, 2020, 11:03:42 PM
Speaking of death...  My uncle went into the ICU two days ago for heart failure and didn't pull through.  I'm to understand that there is no reason to believe what happened is Corona related in any way.  The kicker is that we don't have plans to hold a service due to all the virus stuff and might hold one this summer.  I say "might"  because it really clear when and if the sufficient access to go from California to Ohio without 14 days quarantines will be available.  For what it's worth he had a pretty full life and was well into his 70s...I highly doubt he paid much mind to what is going on currently.  To that end, I would prefer to do some sort of service short term and I think most of my family members would too.  None of that is really possible with the disorganized approach to reopening, social distancing, possible work related consequences, and who knows what else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:32:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:57:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
The economy would have endured the pandemic.
LOL.  No it wouldn't have.  Are you really this naive?  Without the government shutdowns, the pandemic would have been worse.  More people would be sick and die, which will would have caused people to stop going out anyway.

I believe that more businesses closed because they were forced to close by the government than would have closed if not forced to.  I believe that fewer people are spending their money at businesses because they're prevented by the government than would be if not prevented.  Are you really that naive, that you believe no businesses would have found a way to make it work?

It's a question of which is really more of a contributory factor. Blaming shutdowns makes it sound like the majority of economic activity which is not currently occurring would be if not for the shutdowns.

It is possible there are some specific areas of the country where this may be true - places that haven't been hit very hard, and where the local culture is more cavalier. But this is not at all the reality on the ground in places that have been hit harder, or where the local culture is more paranoid.

I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 12:29:08 AM
FWIW, Q1 GDP estimates have been published and we are down 3%.  Assuming that this is all due to the lockdown and the impacts all fell within the final two weeks of a 12-week reporting period, that suggests economic activity will be down 18% for as long as we stay shut down.  I can see the drop in economic activity being at least that large, if not much larger, if we had done nothing whatsoever to mitigate the spread.

Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:32:25 PMI believe that more businesses closed because they were forced to close by the government than would have closed if not forced to.  I believe that fewer people are spending their money at businesses because they're prevented by the government than would be if not prevented.  Are you really that naive, that you believe no businesses would have found a way to make it work?

I wonder if your perspective in this regard is colored by being out of the country when the first round of voluntary closures occurred.  We have not been to one of our standbys for Friday takeaway for over six weeks, for example, because they decided to close completely the weekend of March 15-16, even though they have always had the freedom to sell food to go, and no restaurants in our county were required to close their dining areas until March 25.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on April 30, 2020, 12:31:40 AM
I hate when people say they're gonna "reopen" the economy.

No.  The economy never closed.  Some sectors have just seen a sharp decline in business. People are simply shifting their investment accounts around to save face.

Stay away from consumer discretionary, energy, utilites and technology.  Move over to blue chips, REITs and pharmaceuticals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on April 30, 2020, 01:32:47 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 12:29:08 AM
FWIW, Q1 GDP estimates have been published and we are down 3%.  Assuming that this is all due to the lockdown and the impacts all fell within the final two weeks of a 12-week reporting period, that suggests economic activity will be down 18% for as long as we stay shut down.  I can see the drop in economic activity being at least that large, if not much larger, if we had done nothing whatsoever to mitigate the spread.

Not going to try to argue the counterfactual scenario, though I do want to address "economic activity will be down 18% for as long as we stay shut down" - I do not think this is true, since it falsely presumes the economic impacts of being shut down are linear with time when they most certainly are not. When businesses shut down, they have to draw down cash reserves / take on debt to continue paying their bills. They can only do this for so long before they go under. Likewise, longer shutdowns equal greater losses in tax revenue equal greater impacts to state/county/local budgets equal more need to curtail government services and other spending. A shutdown that lasts twice as long will be more than twice as painful, ultimately.

Beyond this, you have to account for the fact that for some things there is a time delay in impacts being seen. Right now a lot of road construction work, for example, is still happening because it was funded pre-covid and has been deemed essential, but when governments put together their budgets for the next fiscal year, a lot of contractors are going to find themselves hurting for work.

Indeed, expect there to be lasting negative impacts across all sorts of industries as capital budgets both public and private get scaled back, some of which have not been felt yet because while projects already underway will finish, the pain will come from new projects that haven't started yet being delayed or canceled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 08:03:25 AM
Quote from: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
Only if they believe they can go out without getting sick, and only if the supply chains continue to run.  Part of the supply chain is already in danger in spite of the restrictions keeping the numbers down.  If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?  I would argue that we saved the economy by keeping it running at a low level, whereas even the most basic parts of it could have shut down if we'd done nothing.

There have already been 60k deaths and 20X more would be 1.2 million deaths.  Based on the averages of several antibody studies, the fatality rate of this virus appears to be 0.3%.  At that fatality rate, 400 million people would need to be infected before you see 1.2 million deaths (and the US population is only 329 million).  Keep in mind early on experts were predicting up to 2.2 million deaths.  Seeing that it's unlikely they overestimated the US population by hundreds of millions of people in their models, it appears that they greatly overestimated the death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 30, 2020, 08:20:28 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 08:03:25 AM
Quote from: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
Only if they believe they can go out without getting sick, and only if the supply chains continue to run.  Part of the supply chain is already in danger in spite of the restrictions keeping the numbers down.  If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?  I would argue that we saved the economy by keeping it running at a low level, whereas even the most basic parts of it could have shut down if we'd done nothing.

There have already been 60k deaths and 20X more would be 1.2 million deaths.  Based on the averages of several antibody studies, the fatality rate of this virus appears to be 0.3%.  At that fatality rate, 400 million people would need to be infected before you see 1.2 million deaths (and the US population is only 329 million).  Keep in mind early on experts were predicting up to 2.2 million deaths.  Seeing that it's unlikely they overestimated the US population by hundreds of millions of people in their models, it appears that they greatly overestimated the death rate.

He said SICK and dying...and willing and ABLE to work.  People who are sick with this can't work either for 2-3 weeks anecdotally.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 08:25:14 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 08:03:25 AM
Quote from: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
Only if they believe they can go out without getting sick, and only if the supply chains continue to run.  Part of the supply chain is already in danger in spite of the restrictions keeping the numbers down.  If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?  I would argue that we saved the economy by keeping it running at a low level, whereas even the most basic parts of it could have shut down if we'd done nothing.

There have already been 60k deaths and 20X more would be 1.2 million deaths.  Based on the averages of several antibody studies, the fatality rate of this virus appears to be 0.3%.  At that fatality rate, 400 million people would need to be infected before you see 1.2 million deaths (and the US population is only 329 million).  Keep in mind early on experts were predicting up to 2.2 million deaths.  Seeing that it's unlikely they overestimated the US population by hundreds of millions of people in their models, it appears that they greatly overestimated the death rate.
0.3% seem to be optimistic, 0.7-0.9 may be more realistic. And I still didn't hear how good those western blots come out anyway
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 30, 2020, 08:30:47 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

THIS. 

Whatever happened to "have a rainy day fund of 6 months of expenses" (both for people and businesses)?  Yes, some people can't do that.  But many could and didn't, either out of ignorance or out of arrogance.  We're only in month two.  And many expenses have been temporarily paused, like mortgages and car payments and credit cards. 

And those who still have jobs, what guarantees them that they will still have theirs three months from now? 

So no matter how much or how fast the economy reopens, I am not resuming normal life.  Because I don't trust the average person to act responsibly.  The spread of this virus requires that everyone cooperates and does their part to limit their potential asymptomatic spread of the virus.  And yes, things are going to have to reopen more than they are now.  But let's not act like fully reopening the economy is just going to solve everything.  It's not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 30, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
There is an awful lot of lack of comprehension of how all this works.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

Before restrictions were put into place, this virus had an R(0) [r-naught] of 2.2-2.7 [every infected person infects, on average, 2-3 others], and the number of infections was doubling every 6-7 days.  At that rate, 1000 cases becomes 300,000 in 2 months. 

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

To achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, we need to reach an infection rate of 70 percents.  With a population of 329 million, an infection rate of 70% is 229.6 million infections.  The death rate with an unchecked spread and hospitals overrun is a guess, but 0.6% would be on the low end of estimates, which translates to 1.38 million deaths.  I want to see anyone try to suggest that keeping the strictest level of lockdown for 3 months is worse than losing 1.38 million Americans.

The goal of the extreme measures being taken is to reduce the R(0) rate below 1.0.  When the R(0) rate falls below 1.0 and stays below 1.0 for long enough, herd immunity is reached long before 70% of the country is affected.  There are a lot of different estimates out there, but we the extreme measures appear to have reduced R(0) to around 0.7.  That's great, but with this virus taking so long to exhibit symptoms, we need to stay there for a few weeks before relaxing restrictions.

To all the people who are quick to point out that the death rate is a lot lower because there are so many more cases than have actually tested positive, that same fact means that there are a whole bunch more people who are positive and don't know it that will start spreading this thing again if we lift restrictions now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on April 30, 2020, 08:56:30 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 30, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
There is an awful lot of lack of comprehension of how all this works.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

Before restrictions were put into place, this virus had an R(0) [r-naught] of 2.2-2.7 [every infected person infects, on average, 2-3 others], and the number of infections was doubling every 6-7 days.  At that rate, 1000 cases becomes 300,000 in 2 months. 

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

To achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, we need to reach an infection rate of 70 percents.  With a population of 329 million, an infection rate of 70% is 229.6 million infections.  The death rate with an unchecked spread and hospitals overrun is a guess, but 0.6% would be on the low end of estimates, which translates to 1.38 million deaths.  I want to see anyone try to suggest that keeping the strictest level of lockdown for 3 months is worse than losing 1.38 million Americans.

The goal of the extreme measures being taken is to reduce the R(0) rate below 1.0.  When the R(0) rate falls below 1.0 and stays below 1.0 for long enough, herd immunity is reached long before 70% of the country is affected.  There are a lot of different estimates out there, but we the extreme measures appear to have reduced R(0) to around 0.7.  That's great, but with this virus taking so long to exhibit symptoms, we need to stay there for a few weeks before relaxing restrictions.

To all the people who are quick to point out that the death rate is a lot lower because there are so many more cases than have actually tested positive, that same fact means that there are a whole bunch more people who are positive and don't know it that will start spreading this thing again if we lift restrictions now.

It's not comprehension, it's denial.

If it doesn't match my personal narrative, I'll cherry pick facts (and/or opinions disguised as facts) to support my personal narrative.   Be it my perceived rights to my personal freedom, or my economic freedom, or whatever. 

It's the 21st Century Mantra...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 08:58:08 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:32:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 28, 2020, 08:57:10 AM

Quote from: kphoger on April 27, 2020, 05:49:04 PM
The economy would have endured the pandemic.

LOL.  No it wouldn't have.  Are you really this naive?  Without the government shutdowns, the pandemic would have been worse.  More people would be sick and die, which will would have caused people to stop going out anyway.

I believe that more businesses closed because they were forced to close by the government than would have closed if not forced to.  I believe that fewer people are spending their money at businesses because they're prevented by the government than would be if not prevented.  Are you really that naive, that you believe no businesses would have found a way to make it work?

Right.  But more people would have gotten sick and died.  The pandemic caused the government's response.  The pandemic is what is ultimately to blame. 

And no, I think a lot of businesses would not have made it work.  I was out and about in Wisconsin the weekend before safer at home and there was no social distancing.  No staying at home.  Look at the beaches in Florida and the spring break crowds.

Without an order, it wouldn't have happened.  Don't be naive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on April 30, 2020, 09:37:42 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 08:58:08 AMWithout an order, it wouldn't have happened.

Without the order, the world would still have slowed to a crawl, but the effect wouldn't have been to the same extent (such as it is) as it has been, and perhaps not as long.

My company went to 99.99% work from home before lockdown orders went into effect.  I road-tripped to/from Memphis just before most states started imposing lockdown orders; it was a roadtrip because I, like most other travelers, didn't want to risk airports or airplanes, and you could see changes in consumer behavior driving some business decisions at least as much as the daily changes in local orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 09:51:30 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 30, 2020, 08:52:41 AM


Before restrictions were put into place, this virus had an R(0) [r-naught] of 2.2-2.7 [every infected person infects, on average, 2-3 others], and the number of infections was doubling every 6-7 days.  At that rate, 1000 cases becomes 300,000 in 2 months. 

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

To achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, we need to reach an infection rate of 70 percents.  With a population of 329 million, an infection rate of 70% is 229.6 million infections.  The death rate with an unchecked spread and hospitals overrun is a guess, but 0.6% would be on the low end of estimates, which translates to 1.38 million deaths.  I want to see anyone try to suggest that keeping the strictest level of lockdown for 3 months is worse than losing 1.38 million Americans.

The goal of the extreme measures being taken is to reduce the R(0) rate below 1.0.  When the R(0) rate falls below 1.0 and stays below 1.0 for long enough, herd immunity is reached long before 70% of the country is affected.  There are a lot of different estimates out there, but we the extreme measures appear to have reduced R(0) to around 0.7.  That's great, but with this virus taking so long to exhibit symptoms, we need to stay there for a few weeks before relaxing restrictions.
First, we may need to change the lifestyle to keep R0<1. Masks are an obvious first step.
Second, 1 million lives may after all be... acceptable. Sad, but better than possible alternatives - including, as many people are saying,  damage done by 3 months of shutdown.
There are a lot of options between strict shutdown and "do-nothing", though, and  solution should be be somewhere there

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 09:57:25 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on April 30, 2020, 09:37:42 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 08:58:08 AMWithout an order, it wouldn't have happened.

Without the order, the world would still have slowed to a crawl, but the effect wouldn't have been to the same extent (such as it is) as it has been, and perhaps not as long.


And a lot of people would get sick and die.

Here is the main problem with this.  A two month *partial* shut down due to a pandemic shouldn't cause so much economic chaos.  The problem is our safety net sucks.  Unemployed not being able to access benefits.  Small businesses being shut out of loan and grant programs. 

Maybe our economy just isn't as good as we thought it was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 10:16:31 AM
Quote from: ErmineNotyours on April 27, 2020, 11:45:21 PM
Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

(https://i.imgflip.com/3yi272.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 10:23:36 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 30, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
The goal of the extreme measures being taken is to reduce the R(0) rate below 1.0.  When the R(0) rate falls below 1.0 and stays below 1.0 for long enough, herd immunity is reached long before 70% of the country is affected.  There are a lot of different estimates out there, but we the extreme measures appear to have reduced R(0) to around 0.7.  That's great, but with this virus taking so long to exhibit symptoms, we need to stay there for a few weeks before relaxing restrictions.

What does waiting two weeks before relaxing restrictions accomplish?  We have been locked down for a month and we are still seeing about 30k new cases a day and containing the virus seems like a pipe dream.  It's great that the R0 is below 1.0 during the lock down but won't it just spike back up above 1.0 once things reopen?  Ultimately we'll still be in the same boat of either waiting for a vaccine or building up a herd immunity to protect the population... but we'll be months behind the curve of gaining herd immunity while the country was locked down for months.  I don't understand why we won't have to gain 70% herd immunity if we just wait a little longer to reopen.

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 30, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
To all the people who are quick to point out that the death rate is a lot lower because there are so many more cases than have actually tested positive, that same fact means that there are a whole bunch more people who are positive and don't know it that will start spreading this thing again if we lift restrictions now.

The "wort case scenario"  in the Imperial College study estimated 2.2 million US deaths.  The model assumed an R0 of 2.4 and assumed 81% of the US population would be infected over the course of the epidemic.  So the Imperial Study was estimating a fatality rate of 0.82%.  Plug in a death rate of 0.6%, and total deaths drop to 1.6 million deaths.  Assuming 0.3% and it drops to 800k deaths.  H1N1 infected 60 million Americans and caused 12k deaths.  But even if every single American got infected, that would have resulted in 66k deaths.  There reaches a point where if the fatality rate is low enough, we wouldn't go through these extreme mitigation measures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 30, 2020, 10:24:32 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 10:23:36 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 30, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
The goal of the extreme measures being taken is to reduce the R(0) rate below 1.0.  When the R(0) rate falls below 1.0 and stays below 1.0 for long enough, herd immunity is reached long before 70% of the country is affected.  There are a lot of different estimates out there, but we the extreme measures appear to have reduced R(0) to around 0.7.  That's great, but with this virus taking so long to exhibit symptoms, we need to stay there for a few weeks before relaxing restrictions.

What does waiting two weeks before relaxing restrictions accomplish?  We have been locked down for a month and we are still seeing about 30k new cases a day and containing the virus seems like a pipe dream.  It's great that the R0 is below 1.0 during the lock down but won't it just spike back up above 1.0 once things reopen?  Ultimately we'll still be in the same boat of either waiting for a vaccine or building up a herd immunity to protect the population.  I don't understand why we won't have to gain 70% herd immunity if we just wait a little longer to reopen.

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 30, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
To all the people who are quick to point out that the death rate is a lot lower because there are so many more cases than have actually tested positive, that same fact means that there are a whole bunch more people who are positive and don't know it that will start spreading this thing again if we lift restrictions now.

The "wort case scenario"  in the Imperial College study estimated 2.2 million US deaths.  The model assumed an R0 of 2.4 and assumed 81% of the US population would be infected over the course of the epidemic.  So the Imperial Study was estimating a fatality rate of 0.82%.  Plug in a death rate of 0.6%, and total deaths drop to 1.6 million deaths.  Assuming 0.3% and it drops to 800k deaths.  H1N1 infected 60 million Americans and caused 12k deaths.  But even if every single American got infected by it, that would have resulted in about 66k deaths.  There reaches a point where if the fatality rate is low enough, we wouldn't go through these extreme mitigation measures.

If everyone gets it at once, the death rate will increase, as hospitals will be over capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 10:45:33 AM
^I agree that hospitals being overrun would result in a higher death rate, and the Imperial College study specifically stated that it was not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.  The best strategy may be reopening the economy with regional shut downs where health systems are getting overwhelmed.  That strategy would get us through this pandemic as quickly as possible while still trying to minimize deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 10:54:19 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on April 30, 2020, 09:37:42 AM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 08:58:08 AM
Without an order, it wouldn't have happened.

Without the order, the world would still have slowed to a crawl, but the effect wouldn't have been to the same extent (such as it is) as it has been, and perhaps not as long.

This is basically what I'm trying to say.  You guys paint the picture that, without government orders, the economy would have shut down to the same extent that it has.  I'm merely suggesting that it would have shut down to a lesser extent than it has, and with minimal difference in actual spread of the disease because most of the businesses that remained open would have initiated heightened safety protocols (as those businesses that are allowed to remain open have done, with or without government orders to initiate such protocols).

Quote from: kalvado on April 29, 2020, 07:55:04 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 07:24:18 PM

Quote from: wxfree on April 29, 2020, 07:03:30 PM
If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?

more than zero

Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 07:34:12 PM
more than one

You and someone else?

Oh, come on.  Even if only 20% of workers were still willing to go to work, that would be a heck of a lot more than two people.

The industry I work in is considered essential business.  I'm working from home because I have a desk job, but the "real" work is done by contractors out in the fields, interacting with customers.  The MSOs we work for very quickly and surprisingly well developed new protocols to adapt to the new situation, both technological and procedural.  Furthermore, our field techs have been given the ability to take a hiatus from work for weeks at a time without fear of punitive action or loss of their position in our workforce.  As such, the majority of our field techs have been willing and able to continue working, they're doing so quite safely, and our customers have appreciated both our willingness and ability to continue serving their needs and also the increased safety measures we've implemented for both their sake and our own.  I really don't see why it's so hard to believe that businesses can make this sort of accommodation and still stay operational.

If the infection rate were 20, 50, or 100 times higher than it is, then...
  (1)  everyone's opinions on the situation, including my own, might not be same that they actually are now, and
  (2)  a lot more people would be stepping out of the workforce, but that doesn't mean it would drop to zero.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 12:29:08 AM

Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:32:25 PMI believe that more businesses closed because they were forced to close by the government than would have closed if not forced to.  I believe that fewer people are spending their money at businesses because they're prevented by the government than would be if not prevented.  Are you really that naive, that you believe no businesses would have found a way to make it work?

I wonder if your perspective in this regard is colored by being out of the country when the first round of voluntary closures occurred.  We have not been to one of our standbys for Friday takeaway for over six weeks, for example, because they decided to close completely the weekend of March 15-16, even though they have always had the freedom to sell food to go, and no restaurants in our county were required to close their dining areas until March 25.

On March 14, I traveled southbound through Texas, finding every restaurant open for business and not hearing even a rumor that they might close down.  Six days later, I crossed the border northbound to find that the governor had ordered all restaurants in the state to shut down dine-in services.  Sorry, but I find it difficult to believe that every single one of those restaurants (1) would have closed their doors in that six-day period of their own accord and (2) could not have found a safe way to remain open for dine-in service with perhaps a one- or two-week hiatus to develop and implement a strategy.

Quote from: US71 on April 29, 2020, 10:36:50 PM
That says something when you care more about a dead economy than dead citizens.

Quit painting it in black and white.  There is a difference between a 2% dip in the economy and a 20% dip in the economy, and there is a difference between 1000 dead citizens and 100,000 dead citizens. 

Your argument is basically like saying people who resist lowering the speed limit care more about driving slower than dead citizens.

I don't believe that destroying the livelihood of 20 million citizens is necessarily better than preventing 70,000 deaths.  Maybe you disagree with that, and I totally understand.  But at least be honest enough to admit that you wouldn't believe destroying the livelihood of 20 million citizens is better than preventing, say, 70 deaths.

Quote from: vdeane on April 29, 2020, 09:37:31 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 29, 2020, 06:23:07 PM
Aren't you sort of proving my point that it's the shutdown that killed the economy?

No.  Did you even read the article I linked to?  Here it is again: https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Do you seriously think people are just going to go back to normal when stay at home orders lift?  Most won't.  Here's another article, specifically addressing that:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/306053/americans-hesitant-return-normal-short-term.aspx

So: if people aren't willing to return to normal and spend money, does it really matter if the economy is "open" again?  And this didn't start with the stay at home orders, either.  The increased demands for groceries as people stopped eating out began two weeks before stay at home orders began here.  Heck, just look at the Utica roadmeet - it was cancelled a whole week before NY's stay at home order was extended to include the date it had been scheduled for.  It wasn't the stay at home order that caused the cancellation - if it was, then it wouldn't have been cancelled until a week later - but the pandemic.

Yes, I read the article.  Except for perhaps the first couple of lines, the entire thing is about re-opening–not about what caused the halt in the first place.  There's a difference between the economy losing a leg and the economy being shot in the head and loaded into a wood-chipper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 11:10:29 AM
For what it's worth...  Weighing the death toll against injury to the economy, the numbers to compare are ones we don't even know:

How many people currently unemployed due to the virus are only unemployed due to government-mandated shutdowns?
How many people currently unemployed due to the virus would have lost their jobs anyway?
How many lives have been saved because hospitals weren't overrun to the extent they might have otherwise been?
How many lives have been saved because the actual transmission rate of the virus has been reduced?

Without knowing these numbers, one doesn't really know what to compare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 11:24:17 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 11:10:29 AM
For what it's worth...  Weighing the death toll against injury to the economy, the numbers to compare are ones we don't even know:

How many people currently unemployed due to the virus are only unemployed due to government-mandated shutdowns?
How many people currently unemployed due to the virus would have lost their jobs anyway?
How many lives have been saved because hospitals weren't overrun to the extent they might have otherwise been?
How many lives have been saved because the actual transmission rate of the virus has been reduced?

Without knowing these numbers, one doesn't really know what to compare.
Now imagine yourself in governor/POTUS position, who had to answer those questions a month ago and somehow act based on that answer...
For one, NYS governor looks like he gained 10 years within the past 2 months..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 11:33:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 11:24:17 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 11:10:29 AM
For what it's worth...  Weighing the death toll against injury to the economy, the numbers to compare are ones we don't even know:

How many people currently unemployed due to the virus are only unemployed due to government-mandated shutdowns?
How many people currently unemployed due to the virus would have lost their jobs anyway?
How many lives have been saved because hospitals weren't overrun to the extent they might have otherwise been?
How many lives have been saved because the actual transmission rate of the virus has been reduced?

Without knowing these numbers, one doesn't really know what to compare.
Now imagine yourself in governor/POTUS position, who had to answer those questions a month ago and somehow act based on that answer...
For one, NYS governor looks like he gained 10 years within the past 2 months..

Couldn't the same be said about a lot of high political offices in general?  I know that has been said of Presidency in the past.   Stress tends to whether people down and can do so visibility in short windows of time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 11:47:29 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 30, 2020, 01:32:47 AMNot going to try to argue the counterfactual scenario, though I do want to address "economic activity will be down 18% for as long as we stay shut down" - I do not think this is true, since it falsely presumes the economic impacts of being shut down are linear with time when they most certainly are not. When businesses shut down, they have to draw down cash reserves / take on debt to continue paying their bills. They can only do this for so long before they go under. Likewise, longer shutdowns equal greater losses in tax revenue equal greater impacts to state/county/local budgets equal more need to curtail government services and other spending. A shutdown that lasts twice as long will be more than twice as painful, ultimately.

To be sure, an 18% drop in economic activity is a very short-range extrapolation, and when all is said and done, I think a share of business failures and personal bankruptcies will be traced to poor implementation of the fiscal measures (stimulus checks, low-interest loans for small businesses, enhanced unemployment payments, paycheck protection, etc.) that were designed to float the least financially resilient among us through this crisis.  The social safety net has withered, taking advantage of the small measure of economic stabilization that is available through government programs is an unreasonably high-friction process, too large a share of US households live on the edge and rely on debt not just for bridging temporary deficits but also for lifestyle maintenance, etc.

Over the medium term, however, I think social distancing requirements will have a larger impact not just on the size but also the structure of the economy.  Large segments of the secondary sector operate to business models that do not allow profitability while maintaining social distancing.  There are disturbing indications that the same may be true for key elements of the primary sector, such as meatpacking, where we have seen the companies claim they are adhering to strict social distancing and making PPE available to their workers even as outbreaks at their plants reach the thousands of confirmed cases and workers say they are required to work shoulder-to-shoulder with inadequate PPE.

Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 10:54:19 AMOn March 14, I traveled southbound through Texas, finding every restaurant open for business and not hearing even a rumor that they might close down.  Six days later, I crossed the border northbound to find that the governor had ordered all restaurants in the state to shut down dine-in services.  Sorry, but I find it difficult to believe that every single one of those restaurants (1) would have closed their doors in that six-day period of their own accord and (2) could not have found a safe way to remain open for dine-in service with perhaps a one- or two-week hiatus to develop and implement a strategy.

See, that's what I mean--you were out of the country while all the heavy stuff was happening.  I can't speak for Texas, but here in Wichita Sunday, March 15, was the last reasonably normal day.  The closure of the local Y (March 16) and the public library (March 17) were all voluntary.  (Some suburban libraries continued to offer drive-thru or foyer service, but all had ceased to do so by the time closure was mandated.)  Denise Neil's "who's doing what" list in the Wichita Eagle was about one-third full closure by the time the county issued its order prohibiting dine-in, which was on March 25.

Even with the county now looking to phase out stay-at-home sooner rather than later, we are seeing footdragging from the business community locally.  Businesses don't want to have fresh outbreaks traced back to their premises, they don't want the community as a whole to bounce back into lockdown, and they consider themselves shielded from liability for as long as a mandatory order is in effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 11:50:29 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 11:47:29 AM
Even with the county now looking to phase out stay-at-home sooner rather than later, we are seeing footdragging from the business many businesses community locally.  Businesses don't want to have fresh outbreaks traced back to their premises, they don't want the community as a whole to bounce back into lockdown, and they consider themselves shielded from liability for as long as a mandatory order is in effect.

Edited to make it clear that not all businesses do the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 11:53:08 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 11:47:29 AM
the public library (March 17) ... (Some suburban libraries continued to offer drive-thru or foyer service, but all had ceased to do so by the time closure was mandated.)

Speaking of which...  I have a library book that's probably overdue by now.  Do you know how the library is handling this issue?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
A recent CNN article was critical of Sweden's handling of the pandemic noting that Sweden has enforced far fewer restrictions than other Nordic countries while having a "significantly higher"  death rate.  Here is the main graphic used in the article:

(https://i.imgur.com/1vZoG0F.png)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

Sweden currently having a higher death rate per 100k residents compared to their Nordic neighbors — perhaps due to the virus being more prevalent in response to Sweden's looser restrictions — doesn't mean their strategy isn't working.  It's like arguing the Yankees lost because they are down 3-1 in the first inning.  This pandemic is going to play out over a long period of time and the good news for Sweden is that they believe 30% of people in Stockholm have reached a level of immunity to the virus.  They believe the capital could reach herd immunity by as early as next month.  Jan Albert who is a professor at the Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology at the Karolinska Institute made some thought provoking comments in the article:

- "It's clear that Sweden had more deaths [than many other European countries] up until now, and that's probably at least in part because we haven't had as strict a lockdown and not a lockdown enforced by law."

- "What's the strategy of the other countries?  It [herd immunity] was already the only thing that will eventually stop this, unless there is a vaccine in time, which is quite unlikely."

- stricter lockdowns "only serve to flatten the curve and flattening the curve doesn't mean that cases disappear -- they are just moved in time."

-"As long as the healthcare system reasonably can cope with and give good care to the ones that need care, it's not clear that having the cases later in time is better."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 12:36:47 PM
I get what Sweden is thinking, but it seems to me that saving lives on the front end in hopes that you have better prevention and treatment options on the back end seems the more humane way to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 30, 2020, 12:44:53 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 12:36:47 PM
I get what Sweden is thinking, but it seems to me that saving lives on the front end in hopes that you have better prevention and treatment options on the back end seems the more humane way to go.

It's easier for Sweden when losing 0.5% of their population amounts to 50,000 people.  When 0.5% of your population amounts to 1.5 million people it's harder to just accept that and not try to stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 12:48:10 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 11:53:08 AMSpeaking of which...  I have a library book that's probably overdue by now.  Do you know how the library is handling this issue?

You can log on to your library account online (default username/password is your card number and last four digits of the telephone number on file; if you haven't already done so, you can configure a custom username) and check.

Due dates that have fallen during the closure period have been extended so that they fall some time after the announced reopening date.  Since we are now closed "until further notice" (none of the previously planned reopening dates--March 27, April 5, April 25, and May 3--having survived contact with reality), the due date currently programmed into the system is May 11, although I suspect that will be extended if we are still closed then.  Bookdrops are being left open, although returned materials are subject to 72-hour quarantine.

I've now started checking out books online.  I had a chance to stock up before the library closed and still have four print books I haven't yet finished, but as they are pretty slow going, I've turned to Andy Weir's The Martian for something light and fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 01:08:47 PM
Death rate for Sweden is substantially more out-of-line than confirmed case rate, when compared to its Nordic neighbors.

Current counts below:

Confirmed cases, per 100,000 population
Sweden - 204
Denmak - 157
Norway - 144
Finland - 89
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 01:30:19 PM
Supposedly the governor out here in California is closing the state owned beaches and State Parks some time today.  No real news if that will be mandated for non-state owner park/beach facilities at the moment.  Apparently this is some sort of response to the beaches in Southern California being filled with people last weekend.  The parking lots at State Beaches and Parks have been shuttered for awhile and they were allowing access to those on foot (who were supposed to be local to the area). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on April 30, 2020, 01:42:41 PM
US intelligence says that COVID-19 isn't "manmade or genetically modified", though they're still trying to figure out whether or not it escaped from the virology lab in Wuhan or if it came from contact with infected animals.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-us-intelligence-community-china-odni/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-us-intelligence-community-china-odni/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on April 30, 2020, 01:52:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 01:08:47 PM
Death rate for Sweden is substantially more out-of-line than confirmed case rate, when compared to its Nordic neighbors.

Current counts below:

Confirmed cases, per 100,000 population
Sweden - 204
Denmak - 157
Norway - 144
Finland - 89

Yeah the mortality rate in Sweden is way out of line compared to the other Nordic nations (which simply suggests there is a lack of testing compared to the other nations). I added USA in the mix for comparison sake.

Sweden =12.0% mortality rate (2,274 deaths among 18,926 cases)
Denmark = 4.7% mortality rate (427 deaths among 9,049 cases)
Norway = 2.7% mortality rate (206 deaths among 7,599 cases)
Finland = 4.1% mortality rate (193 deaths among 4,695 cases)
USA = 5.9% (~62,000 deaths among 1 million cases)

Here is the % herd immunity of each Nordic nation (and the USA) assuming a 0.3% fatality rate:
Sweden = 7.4% (758,000 infected among 10.3 million people)
Denmark = 2.4% (142,333 infected among 5.8 million people)
Norway = 1.3% (68,666 infected among 5.4 million people)
Finland = 1.2% (64,333 infected among 5.5 million people)
USA = 6.3% (20.6 million infected among 329 million people)

I'm estimating that 20.6 million Americans (6.3%) have already been infected by coronavirus.  Assuming herd immunity is reached at 63% that would mean roughly 630k people would die before the virus runs its course.  Turns out for every % point of herd immunity needed, it would increase the death toll by about a 1000.   So assuming 80% herd immunity, we could expect to see roughly 800k deaths. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 02:04:17 PM
Quote from: LM117 on April 30, 2020, 01:42:41 PM
US intelligence says that COVID-19 isn't "manmade or genetically modified", though they're still trying to figure out whether or not it escaped from the virology lab in Wuhan or if it came from contact with infected animals.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-us-intelligence-community-china-odni/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-us-intelligence-community-china-odni/)
I would prefer a better investigation of CDC actions at the beginning of US spread. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 30, 2020, 02:10:03 PM
The Atlantic just did an interesting piece about how coronavirus is changing retail.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-pandemic-will-change-face-retail/610738/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on April 30, 2020, 03:44:46 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Conversely, I'm not going to trust that it was ever unsafe because the government said so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on April 30, 2020, 04:38:15 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on April 30, 2020, 12:36:47 PM
I get what Sweden is thinking, but it seems to me that saving lives on the front end in hopes that you have better prevention and treatment options on the back end seems the more humane way to go.

That's what I was thinking. Sweden's route reminds me of Stephen King's the Mist. Spoiler alert: at the end, almost everybody kills themselves because it seems to the only route forward. Right afterwards, the mist clears and the main protagonist is left sitting there covered in the vain blood of his entire family.

If a vaccine comes around after Sweden hits "herd immunity" but before other countries begin to escalate (assuming total deaths will continue to rise in locked-down countries, just slowly), Sweden is gonna look pretty stupid for killing thousands of its own people when a vaccine could minimize or halt further death without tons of death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 30, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
On Tuesday morning, I had to go to the hospital because of a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lungs). This was absolutely caused by the lockdowns.

The lockdowns have very real consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on April 30, 2020, 04:51:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 30, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
On Tuesday morning, I had to go to the hospital because of a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lungs). This was absolutely caused by the lockdowns.

The lockdowns have very real consequences.
How were they caused by the lockdowns?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on April 30, 2020, 04:52:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 30, 2020, 04:51:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on April 30, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
On Tuesday morning, I had to go to the hospital because of a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lungs). This was absolutely caused by the lockdowns.

The lockdowns have very real consequences.
How were they caused by the lockdowns?

I can't handle the stress.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 05:36:44 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on April 30, 2020, 03:44:46 PM
Conversely, I'm not going to trust that it was ever unsafe because the government said so.

This.

Seeing teen-agers wearing masks to walk their dog down the middle of a quiet residential street is just craziness.

Quote from: jakeroot on April 30, 2020, 04:38:15 PM
If a vaccine comes around after Sweden hits "herd immunity" but before other countries begin to escalate (assuming total deaths will continue to rise in locked-down countries, just slowly), Sweden is gonna look pretty stupid for killing thousands of its own people when a vaccine could minimize or halt further death without tons of death.

But how likely, really, are we to have a vaccine in that window of time? that is substantially effective? in sufficient quantity to–what–vaccinate the whole world?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on April 30, 2020, 05:42:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 05:36:44 PM

But how likely, really, are we to have a vaccine in that window of time? that is substantially effective? in sufficient quantity to–what–vaccinate the whole world?

Just within the last week, doctors found a drug that reduces the death rate. As more drugs get tested, we can choose the best drug (which might be different for different people). If the death rate for those who have COVID-19 decreases by 80% or more, we can let it run its course (like we did with the 2009 swine flu) until we get herd immunity. Sweden and the Netherlands will not get this benefit of a drug reducing the fatality rate if they get most of their cases early.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 05:58:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

I fully realize there might be nobody wondering how this situation played out, but...

Because our friends (a couple with two young daughters) don't have proper visas yet and have been living in Mexico in the meantime on FMMs (commonly called tourist cards), they didn't know if they could even get new papers because of the government and border shutdown.  They had tried calling various government agencies in Mexico to find out, been put on hold, and never gotten an answer (including the INM office in Saltillo and even–I think–the US Consulate's emergency number in Mexico City).  I had then asked around on an expat forum and found out that their papers were set to expire during a window of time that had no solution in place.  If their papers had expired earlier, then there would have been a process to get new ones at any immigration office.  Unfortunately, even though the government shutdown had been extended to the end of May, that process had not been likewise extended.  So, with no answer to the problem, they packed up as if they would have to stay outside of Mexico for an indefinite amount of time, and drove 275 miles north, not knowing if they would be stopped and turned around in Monclova along the way, not knowing what would happen when they got to customs.

It was mid-morning yesterday that they started heading north.  At Castaños (just south of Monclova), the police were stopping traffic but waved our friends on.  They stopped anyway and asked which way they should go to head north of town, and they were directed to take the bypass around the east side of Monclova (an ugly route mainly used by local truckers, but which our friends were already familiar with).  Upon arrival at the customs office near Allende, they found out that they could indeed get new FMMs and vehicle permits, but that they would have to wait till the shift change a few hours later for the FMMs and until after midnight for the vehicle permits.  So they canceled their soon-to-expire papers and laid up for the night at a local hotel, which fortunately had no problem with their dog being in the room.  By around lunchtime today, they had their new FMMs and vehicle permits.  They're currently headed back south, and I estimate they're within 1.5 hours of home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 06:04:23 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 30, 2020, 05:42:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 05:36:44 PM

But how likely, really, are we to have a vaccine in that window of time? that is substantially effective? in sufficient quantity to–what–vaccinate the whole world?

Just within the last week, doctors found a drug that reduces the death rate. As more drugs get tested, we can choose the best drug (which might be different for different people). If the death rate for those who have COVID-19 decreases by 80% or more, we can let it run its course (like we did with the 2009 swine flu) until we get herd immunity. Sweden and the Netherlands will not get this benefit of a drug reducing the fatality rate if they get most of their cases early.
Remdisivir was listed as very promising since early February if not January. Problem is there are only research quantities available, not millions doses. It was not approved when the mess started, so no production runs. And looking at the structure, it should be a complex synthesis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 06:43:52 PM
Apparently the beaches and State Parks aren't closing after all, just the beaches in Orange County:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-likely-announce-closure-states-061910695.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on April 30, 2020, 07:23:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 06:43:52 PM
Apparently the beaches and State Parks aren't closing after all, just the beaches in Orange County:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-likely-announce-closure-states-061910695.html

Good, but even the Orange County closures were IMO an overreaction. While there were a lot of people at the beach, they looked in the photos I've seen (one of which is in the linked article) to be in small groups more than six feet apart. And the small groups aren't a problem, if each group is already living in the same household.

Methinks the Twitterverse, and the governor, are offended by people out having fun in the sun rather than sweltering in their homes, not any clear violation of social distancing guidelines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 30, 2020, 07:23:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 06:43:52 PM
Apparently the beaches and State Parks aren't closing after all, just the beaches in Orange County:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-likely-announce-closure-states-061910695.html

Good, but even the Orange County closures were IMO an overreaction. While there were a lot of people at the beach, they looked in the photos I've seen (one of which is in the linked article) to be in small groups more than six feet apart. And the small groups aren't a problem, if each group is already living in the same household.

Methinks the Twitterverse, and the governor, are offended by people out having fun in the sun rather than sweltering in their homes, not any clear violation of social distancing guidelines.

Apparently the memo police chiefs were getting was far more harsh and would have affected the whole state park system.  I'm sure there was some back door conversations on how enforceable that was and jurisdictions questioning why they were being punished for something that happened in Orange County.  At the end of the day the vibe I'm getting is that most police department don't want to enforce the stay at home order unless they are really forced to.  Bottom line IMO that was hard to justify making state wide when half the cases in California are concentrated to the Los Angeles area. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on April 30, 2020, 10:01:27 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 30, 2020, 07:23:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 06:43:52 PM
Apparently the beaches and State Parks aren't closing after all, just the beaches in Orange County:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-likely-announce-closure-states-061910695.html

Good, but even the Orange County closures were IMO an overreaction. While there were a lot of people at the beach, they looked in the photos I've seen (one of which is in the linked article) to be in small groups more than six feet apart. And the small groups aren't a problem, if each group is already living in the same household.

Methinks the Twitterverse, and the governor, are offended by people out having fun in the sun rather than sweltering in their homes, not any clear violation of social distancing guidelines.
A lot of this is being driven by image.  Cuomo's mask mandate came about after images leaked of crowded subway cars.  Today's announcement of it being closed at night for cleaning happened after reports that homeless people were living in the cars.

Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 05:36:44 PM
Seeing teen-agers wearing masks to walk their dog down the middle of a quiet residential street is just craziness.
If you're walking the dog, it might not be easy to put the mask on if you encounter someone.  I do something similar for laundry - mask on when I'm carrying laundry to/from my apartment, but mask off when walking back during a cycle and I'm not carrying anything.  Granted, I'm walking on a 3-4' sidewalk and not interested in walking on wet/muddy grass, not a street, so I don't have as much room to maneuver.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on April 30, 2020, 10:37:00 PM
Quote from: oscar on April 30, 2020, 07:23:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 06:43:52 PM
Apparently the beaches and State Parks aren't closing after all, just the beaches in Orange County:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-likely-announce-closure-states-061910695.html

Good, but even the Orange County closures were IMO an overreaction. While there were a lot of people at the beach, they looked in the photos I've seen (one of which is in the linked article) to be in small groups more than six feet apart. And the small groups aren't a problem, if each group is already living in the same household.

Methinks the Twitterverse, and the governor, are offended by people out having fun in the sun rather than sweltering in their homes, not any clear violation of social distancing guidelines.

"Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy."  - H.L. Mencken.
Just as true today as it was then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 30, 2020, 11:24:51 PM
Fresno County just had a clinic open COVID-19 antibody testing.  I'm not sure what the volume of people will be but my wife and I are strongly considering it.  I'll have to ask my HR department if there would be any negative ramifications that might keep me out of work for getting an antibody test, to my knowledge they haven't established any protocols for the scenario. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 01, 2020, 12:24:38 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 06:04:23 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 30, 2020, 05:42:02 PM
Just within the last week, doctors found a drug that reduces the death rate. As more drugs get tested, we can choose the best drug (which might be different for different people). If the death rate for those who have COVID-19 decreases by 80% or more, we can let it run its course (like we did with the 2009 swine flu) until we get herd immunity. Sweden and the Netherlands will not get this benefit of a drug reducing the fatality rate if they get most of their cases early.
Remdisivir was listed as very promising since early February if not January. Problem is there are only research quantities available, not millions doses. It was not approved when the mess started, so no production runs. And looking at the structure, it should be a complex synthesis.

It's worth noting that it was potentially "promising" months ago but this was only based on one very small trial in Japan. There was not nearly enough evidence gathered to have conclusively demonstrated it to be effective. Thus, the FDA in the US has not approved it for anything more than clinical trials because it is unproven, and we don't go prescribing drugs willy-nilly based on untested hunches they might work.
The upshot is, the existence of promising clinical trials domestically establishes something crucial: that the results of the original Japanese study are reproducible, which is necessary for them to be scientifically valid.

It's still going to take some time for all the data to be gathered, the numbers crunched, and for prescribing guidelines to be written up and vetted. But once all that happens - which, mind you, might still take another couple months, it's not coming tomorrow - then we'll have an actual FDA approved drug treatment, which would indeed be a huge milestone.

I don't know how much production capacity for this stuff its owner (Gilead) actually has, and indeed the existence of an approved drug treatment is a lot less of a game changer if it cannot be procured in sufficient quantities to treat everyone who needs it. But at the same time you also have to expect that if there is such an FDA approval in place, there is also going to be an effort to scale up production as much as possible as fast as possible. The public won't stand for anything less and it would be a PR disaster for Gilead if they're unable to deliver on this. If the folks in charge of that company have their heads screwed on halfway straight, they already have a plan - it's just not public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 01, 2020, 03:40:05 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 10:54:19 AM
The industry I work in is considered essential business.  I'm working from home because I have a desk job, but the "real" work is done by contractors out in the fields, interacting with customers. [...] Furthermore, our field techs have been given the ability to take a hiatus from work for weeks at a time without fear of punitive action or loss of their position in our workforce. [...] I really don't see why it's so hard to believe that businesses can make this sort of accommodation and still stay operational.

It's not hard to believe that businesses can make those accommodations. It's hard to believe that they will.

Retail and food service type places tend to run with a skeleton crew. When I managed a fast food restaurant we had a meter on the computer that computed the percentage, hour by hour, of the labor cost to sales. Our goal was for labor to be 15% of hourly sales. That was hard to do. As a result, we didn't have any extra people scheduled. One manager, one on front counter, one on drive thru, two in the kitchen. We weren't even staffed enough to have someone in the first drive thru window (the one where you pay). That means if someone called in, there was a scramble to call all of the employees scheduled off and try to sweet-talk them into coming in on their day off.

This was in the late-2000s. Things have gotten worse since then due to the expectation that a wider range of employers provide health insurance benefits to their employees (I didn't have health insurance at all at that job, despite working 60 hours a week). So since employers have to pay a fixed cost per employee, these type of employers cut back the number of positions to the bare minimum to cover that bare minimum staff level that keeps their daily labor cost down. And this isn't just one fast food restaurant doing this, it's sit-down restaurants, grocery stores, big-box stores, retail of all kinds. This isn't just mom and pop places, there are major multinational corporations that run this way.

Do you think a manager in a company following those types of business practice would willingly let an employee take weeks at a time off? They would be unable to operate the business being one person down, never mind the potential of more than one employee taking them up on the offer for leave at once. Yes, this is a very stupid way of running a business. Yes, thousands of businesses are run this way, because it saves the company money, and usually isn't a problem. But when it all goes to hell, the business should suffer for being short staffed, but in most cases, they actually make more money, while the employees suffer the consequence in the form of increased workload and angry customers (but not angry enough to not buy things, just angry enough to verbally abuse employees).

It should be acknowledged by those of us who have jobs that are run in a humane way that our experience is far from universal. Most employers are not so generous, because they don't have to be, and since doing so loses them money, why would they?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 01, 2020, 08:26:33 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 30, 2020, 05:42:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 05:36:44 PM

But how likely, really, are we to have a vaccine in that window of time? that is substantially effective? in sufficient quantity to–what–vaccinate the whole world?

Just within the last week, doctors found a drug that reduces the death rate. As more drugs get tested, we can choose the best drug (which might be different for different people). If the death rate for those who have COVID-19 decreases by 80% or more, we can let it run its course (like we did with the 2009 swine flu) until we get herd immunity. Sweden and the Netherlands will not get this benefit of a drug reducing the fatality rate if they get most of their cases early.

For months researchers around the world have been looking for a miracle drug to combat COVID.  The best hope we have is Remdesivir, a limited supply drug that had a mortality rate of 8% as opposed to 11% in the placebo group.  I don't even think that is statistically significant.  NYC has been locked down for over a month and they are still seeing 1000 new cases per day.  If they are unable to contain the virus then what are the lock downs accomplishing at this point?  The front end lives in NYC have already been lost.... just as the city is getting close to herd immunity they keep the city shut for the next 9 months until a vaccine can be developed?  With currently 1000 new cases per day, NYC may gain herd immunity long before the vaccine is ready.  The weather gets nice, people go out more, the spread of the virus begins to accelerate again... ultimately the city's extended lock down measures may do more harm than good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 01, 2020, 08:38:32 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 01, 2020, 12:24:38 AM
Quote from: kalvado on April 30, 2020, 06:04:23 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 30, 2020, 05:42:02 PM
Just within the last week, doctors found a drug that reduces the death rate. As more drugs get tested, we can choose the best drug (which might be different for different people). If the death rate for those who have COVID-19 decreases by 80% or more, we can let it run its course (like we did with the 2009 swine flu) until we get herd immunity. Sweden and the Netherlands will not get this benefit of a drug reducing the fatality rate if they get most of their cases early.
Remdisivir was listed as very promising since early February if not January. Problem is there are only research quantities available, not millions doses. It was not approved when the mess started, so no production runs. And looking at the structure, it should be a complex synthesis.

It's worth noting that it was potentially "promising" months ago but this was only based on one very small trial in Japan. There was not nearly enough evidence gathered to have conclusively demonstrated it to be effective. Thus, the FDA in the US has not approved it for anything more than clinical trials because it is unproven, and we don't go prescribing drugs willy-nilly based on untested hunches they might work.
The upshot is, the existence of promising clinical trials domestically establishes something crucial: that the results of the original Japanese study are reproducible, which is necessary for them to be scientifically valid.

It's still going to take some time for all the data to be gathered, the numbers crunched, and for prescribing guidelines to be written up and vetted. But once all that happens - which, mind you, might still take another couple months, it's not coming tomorrow - then we'll have an actual FDA approved drug treatment, which would indeed be a huge milestone.

I don't know how much production capacity for this stuff its owner (Gilead) actually has, and indeed the existence of an approved drug treatment is a lot less of a game changer if it cannot be procured in sufficient quantities to treat everyone who needs it. But at the same time you also have to expect that if there is such an FDA approval in place, there is also going to be an effort to scale up production as much as possible as fast as possible. The public won't stand for anything less and it would be a PR disaster for Gilead if they're unable to deliver on this. If the folks in charge of that company have their heads screwed on halfway straight, they already have a plan - it's just not public.
"Small study in Japan" is actually two studies in China with about 600 total participants. FDA approval gives way for 1000-participant study...
The company promised to produce 1 million sets by the end of the year, which will make a difference only if the spread is actually arrested. I also wonder what the price is going to be. With such complex molecule, produstion cost of tens thousands per treatment is not unrealistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 01, 2020, 10:50:10 AM
'Social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented'

This is the assumption made at the top of the IHME website.  The fact is most of the country locked down starting the week of March 22nd and daily new cases peaked at 35k two weeks later.  A month since the peak in new cases (and 6 weeks into the lock downs) we are still averaging about 30k new cases per day.  The infections are plateauing not minimizing.  The IHME model is currently projecting 72,433 deaths by August 4th when in reality deaths will likely surpass that number by next week.  Perhaps if we had draconian lock down measures in place this virus could be contained in this country, but that's not going to happen here.  So if we can't effectively contain the virus the next logical step is building a herd immunity to it (by reopening the economy at a slow pace to ensure that health care systems don't get overrun). 

The IHME model has to keep upping their projections because their fundamental assumption is flawed.  By locking down the country we aren't achieving containment or anything close to it.  Good luck attempting to contact trace 30k new cases a day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Perhaps, then, there is a fundamental difference between the way you and I live our lives.

Staying safe is not the goal of my life.  Heck, staying alive isn't even the goal of my life.  I fully expect to die at some point in my life.  That doesn't mean I live recklessly, but it does mean that "is it safe?" isn't the guiding question that controls my decisions.

In 2008, my wife and I decided to take steps towards doing mission work in Mexico.  A couple of months later, escalating cartel violence started making US headlines, and everybody we knew told is it wasn't safe to go to Mexico.  The first year we went (March 2009), my wife's own mother called her "stupid" for taking our one-year-old son to Mexico.  Her grandparents told us that, with any future trips, we shouldn't even tell them we were going until we got back to the USA.  Even today, the US Department of State says of the state we travel to:  "Reconsider Travel ... due to crime.  Violent crime and unpredictable gang activity are common..."  For the first several years, I did research about the safety of travel there.  I obtained detailed data from the Mexican attorney-general's office, downloaded Harvard mathematician-published research papers, looked through FBI crime statistics, made charts and graphs based on my findings, etc.  But all of that was really for the sake of others traveling with us.  It wasn't for our own sake.  We had a call on our lives to serve in Mexico, and it's our belief that one is supposed to follow his or her calling whether it's safe or not.  (I'm trying to avoid overtly religious language.)  Our best friends recently moved to the town we serve in, with our full encouragement and support.  "Is it safe?" is a question that factors into their decisions and ours, but it is far from the most important factor.

When we do go to Mexico, we often do roof demolition.  We destroy the very surface we stand on, sometimes swinging mattocks while balancing on the edge of the wall because there's nowhere else to stand.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  After the work is done, we take the children down the street to the swimming hole.  The water isn't treated, people dump all sorts of stuff into the canal that flows through it, my friend has even seen a turd floating by.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  But we decide to do these things anyway, because they are acts of ministry to the children there.

2 million drivers in the USA suffer permanent injury or disability because of car accidents in any given year.  I personally see or hear car crashes every year, and major wrecks on the highway frequently affect my commute.  But this does not keep me from driving a car.  Is driving safe?  Maybe, maybe not.

More than half a million Americans die from heart disease every year.  I have borderline cholesterol, and heart attacks run in the family.  But these things do not define how I choose what to eat.  I buy high-oleic sunflower oil for cooking applications I used to use lard for, for example, but I'm not about to switch to a raw diet.  Could I be healthier if I became religious about my diet?  Certainly.  But extending my life as long as possible isn't my goal.

If I drop food on the floor, I pick it up and eat it.  Might I get sick from that?  I suppose so.

Back when I didn't have a car, I used to hitchhike.  One week-end, I took Greyhound from Chicago to Menominee (MI), then hitchhiked for two days across and down through Michigan and back to Chicago.  Just for fun, because I wanted to see Michigan.  Was it safe?  Well, who knows? because there are almost no statistics on the safety of hitchhiking.

"Safety" is an illusion anyway.  What will you be looking for?  100% safety?  It doesn't exist.  There are always canaries, if you look hard enough.  When the government does tell us it's "safe", what will that mean anyway?  No risk of infection?  That we can go to the store with zero risk of catching any illness?  That's an impossibility.  We live our lives with a combination of myriad factors, each of which lies somewhere along a continuum of risk.  Focusing on that continuum will leave a person paralyzed, because it's impossible to eliminate all the risk factors.

I'm not about to give up spending time with my friends just because it might be risky.  I'm not about to stop going to the grocery store just because someone might have sneezed nearby at some point earlier in the day.  I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.  If I determine that the risks are great enough to warrant a lifestyle change on my part, then I'll change my behavior.  But, until that time, I'm going to continue living my life as normally as possible under current government and corporate restrictions.  And when those restrictions are lifted, I'll be only too eager to return to normal life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 01, 2020, 10:52:09 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 01, 2020, 10:50:10 AM
'Social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented'

This is the assumption made at the top of the IHME website.  The fact is most of the country locked down starting the week of March 22nd and daily new cases peaked at 35k two weeks later.  A month since the peak in new cases (and 6 weeks into the lock downs) we are still averaging about 30k new cases per day.  The infections are plateauing not minimizing.  The IHME model is currently projecting 72,433 deaths by August 4th when in reality deaths will likely surpass that number by next week.  Perhaps if we had draconian lock down measures in place this virus could be contained in this country, but that's not going to happen here.  So if we can't effectively contain the virus the next logical step is building a herd immunity to it (by reopening the economy at a slow pace to ensure that health care systems don't get overrun). 

The IHME model has to keep upping their projections because their fundamental assumption is flawed.  By locking down the country we aren't achieving containment or anything close to it.  Good luck attempting to contact trace 30k new cases a day.

There probably actually are far fewer new infections right now than there were a month ago. It's probably not even close. But we were doing far fewer tests a month ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Perhaps, then, there is a fundamental difference between the way you and I live our lives.

Staying safe is not the goal of my life.  Heck, staying alive isn't even the goal of my life.  I fully expect to die at some point in my life.  That doesn't mean I live recklessly, but it does mean that "is it safe?" isn't the guiding question that controls my decisions.

In 2008, my wife and I decided to take steps towards doing mission work in Mexico.  A couple of months later, escalating cartel violence started making US headlines, and everybody we knew told is it wasn't safe to go to Mexico.  The first year we went (March 2009), my wife's own mother called her "stupid" for taking our one-year-old son to Mexico.  Her grandparents told us that, with any future trips, we shouldn't even tell them we were going until we got back to the USA.  Even today, the US Department of State says of the state we travel to:  "Reconsider Travel ... due to crime.  Violent crime and unpredictable gang activity are common..."  For the first several years, I did research about the safety of travel there.  I obtained detailed data from the Mexican attorney-general's office, downloaded Harvard mathematician-published research papers, looked through FBI crime statistics, made charts and graphs based on my findings, etc.  But all of that was really for the sake of others traveling with us.  It wasn't for our own sake.  We had a call on our lives to serve in Mexico, and it's our belief that one is supposed to follow his or her calling whether it's safe or not.  (I'm trying to avoid overtly religious language.)  Our best friends recently moved to the town we serve in, with our full encouragement and support.  "Is it safe?" is a question that factors into their decisions and ours, but it is far from the most important factor.

When we do go to Mexico, we often do roof demolition.  We destroy the very surface we stand on, sometimes swinging mattocks while balancing on the edge of the wall because there's nowhere else to stand.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  After the work is done, we take the children down the street to the swimming hole.  The water isn't treated, people dump all sorts of stuff into the canal that flows through it, my friend has even seen a turd floating by.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  But we decide to do these things anyway, because they are acts of ministry to the children there.

2 million drivers in the USA suffer permanent injury or disability because of car accidents in any given year.  I personally see or hear car crashes every year, and major wrecks on the highway frequently affect my commute.  But this does not keep me from driving a car.  Is driving safe?  Maybe, maybe not.

More than half a million Americans die from heart disease every year.  I have borderline cholesterol, and heart attacks run in the family.  But these things do not define how I choose what to eat.  I buy high-oleic sunflower oil for cooking applications I used to use lard for, for example, but I'm not about to switch to a raw diet.  Could I be healthier if I became religious about my diet?  Certainly.  But extending my life as long as possible isn't my goal.

If I drop food on the floor, I pick it up and eat it.  Might I get sick from that?  I suppose so.

Back when I didn't have a car, I used to hitchhike.  One week-end, I took Greyhound from Chicago to Menominee (MI), then hitchhiked for two days across and down through Michigan and back to Chicago.  Just for fun, because I wanted to see Michigan.  Was it safe?  Well, who knows? because there are almost no statistics on the safety of hitchhiking.

"Safety" is an illusion anyway.  What will you be looking for?  100% safety?  It doesn't exist.  There are always canaries, if you look hard enough.  When the government does tell us it's "safe", what will that mean anyway?  No risk of infection?  That we can go to the store with zero risk of catching any illness?  That's an impossibility.  We live our lives with a combination of myriad factors, each of which lies somewhere along a continuum of risk.  Focusing on that continuum will leave a person paralyzed, because it's impossible to eliminate all the risk factors.

I'm not about to give up spending time with my friends just because it might be risky.  I'm not about to stop going to the grocery store just because someone might have sneezed nearby at some point earlier in the day.  I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.  If I determine that the risks are great enough to warrant a lifestyle change on my part, then I'll change my behavior.  But, until that time, I'm going to continue living my life as normally as possible under current government and corporate restrictions.  And when those restrictions are lifted, I'll be only too eager to return to normal life.
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 12:09:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 30, 2020, 05:58:03 PM

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

I fully realize there might be nobody wondering how this situation played out, but...

Because our friends (a couple with two young daughters) don't have proper visas yet and have been living in Mexico in the meantime on FMMs (commonly called tourist cards), they didn't know if they could even get new papers because of the government and border shutdown.  They had tried calling various government agencies in Mexico to find out, been put on hold, and never gotten an answer (including the INM office in Saltillo and even–I think–the US Consulate's emergency number in Mexico City).  I had then asked around on an expat forum and found out that their papers were set to expire during a window of time that had no solution in place.  If their papers had expired earlier, then there would have been a process to get new ones at any immigration office.  Unfortunately, even though the government shutdown had been extended to the end of May, that process had not been likewise extended.  So, with no answer to the problem, they packed up as if they would have to stay outside of Mexico for an indefinite amount of time, and drove 275 miles north, not knowing if they would be stopped and turned around in Monclova along the way, not knowing what would happen when they got to customs.

It was mid-morning yesterday that they started heading north.  At Castaños (just south of Monclova), the police were stopping traffic but waved our friends on.  They stopped anyway and asked which way they should go to head north of town, and they were directed to take the bypass around the east side of Monclova (an ugly route mainly used by local truckers, but which our friends were already familiar with).  Upon arrival at the customs office near Allende, they found out that they could indeed get new FMMs and vehicle permits, but that they would have to wait till the shift change a few hours later for the FMMs and until after midnight for the vehicle permits.  So they canceled their soon-to-expire papers and laid up for the night at a local hotel, which fortunately had no problem with their dog being in the room.  By around lunchtime today, they had their new FMMs and vehicle permits.  They're currently headed back south, and I estimate they're within 1.5 hours of home.

For anyone interested in what it's like to travel within Mexico right now...

Within the 275-mile drive south from customs to their house, which did not cross any state lines, here's what our friends encountered:

– questioned four times
– temperatures taken twice with IR thermomenters
– tires sprayed with bleach twice (wtf?), once at a tollbooth and once at a roadside checkpoint
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 12:17:19 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AMI'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Have you seen anyone doing this in your neighborhood?  I have not in mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 01, 2020, 12:18:03 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 12:17:19 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AMI'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Have you seen anyone doing this in your neighborhood?  I have not in mine.

People never wear masks outdoors around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 01, 2020, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 12:17:19 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AMI'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Have you seen anyone doing this in your neighborhood?  I have not in mine.

I've worn a mask while walking, but that's because I am walking 2000 feet to a convenience store to get deli meat. If I'm walking outside without going into a building, I don't wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 12:21:43 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 12:17:19 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AMI'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Have you seen anyone doing this in your neighborhood?  I have not in mine.

I see it on occasion with people walking but it might be 25% of them.  Usually those who are very elderly, I noticed they tend to have nitrile gloves too.  Someone actually got mad at me for not wearing a mask while running...clearly they don't get running. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 12:26:03 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 12:17:19 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Have you seen anyone doing this in your neighborhood?  I have not in mine.

Yes, on multiple occasions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on May 01, 2020, 12:29:18 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 01, 2020, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 12:17:19 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AMI'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Have you seen anyone doing this in your neighborhood?  I have not in mine.

I've worn a mask while walking, but that's because I am walking 2000 feet to a convenience store to get deli meat. If I'm walking outside without going into a building, I don't wear a mask.

Last time I walked my neighborhood, I saw one other person. So I wasn't concerned about not wearing a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
I've seen a few people in our neighborhood wearing masks on our (nearly-) daily walks.  But most don't.  In fact the latest from the governor specifically said you did NOT have to wear a mask during outside recreation - but still abide by social distancing.

It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 12:53:44 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
I've seen a few people in our neighborhood wearing masks on our (nearly-) daily walks.  But most don't.  In fact the latest from the governor specifically said you did NOT have to wear a mask during outside recreation - but still abide by social distancing.

It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.

With this virus, I'd avoid the elderly before avoiding the children.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 01, 2020, 01:03:24 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 12:17:19 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AMI'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Have you seen anyone doing this in your neighborhood?  I have not in mine.

Around me, probably about 2/3 of people are doing this. To be fair, I can't tell where they're going, and I live in a pretty dense area, so there's a reasonable chance they may be entering a building at some point.

I'm among those who feel that a mask probably isn't necessary if you're outside and away from other people, so right now I'm generally only putting one on for grocery runs (where now probably >90% are also doing so).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 01:29:04 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
I've seen a few people in our neighborhood wearing masks on our (nearly-) daily walks.  But most don't.  In fact the latest from the governor specifically said you did NOT have to wear a mask during outside recreation - but still abide by social distancing.

It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.

I've seen some seriously surprised people when I'll jump over medians and back when I'm out running.  I noticed that this past week there has been a lot more pre-sunrise walkers out.  I'm assuming that the extra amount of people taking walks as forced some to go out earlier.  Usually the only pre-sunrise people I see are serious cardio people who run or cycle. 

The most obnoxious group is the dog walkers.  There are a ton of them that have no control over their animals.  A lot of them still try to chase things that are moving fast, like me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 01:44:12 PM
Modoc County (which has zero cases) reopened today despite not getting approval from the governors office in Sacramento:

https://news.yahoo.com/california-county-defies-governors-statewide-152909124.html

Of note; one people official cited in the article echoed what I've been saying regarding law enforcement response to social distancing.  Most departments aren't going to go out of their way to cite people with misdemeanor offenses and will attempt to dissuade above all else.  I would have to imagine that similar sentiments from the law enforcement community probably can be found nation wide. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:13:22 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

Not my point, exactly.

I guess my point is this:  If avoiding risk is your guiding principle, your default modus operandi, then you're doing life the wrong way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 01, 2020, 02:17:16 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:13:22 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

Not my point, exactly.

I guess my point is this:  If avoiding risk is your guiding principle, your default modus operandi, then you're doing life the wrong way.
The end result is somewhat predictrable, though. First wave saw coffins in trenches; the second wave will be about dump trucks of bodies and lime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 01, 2020, 02:19:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:13:22 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

Not my point, exactly.

I guess my point is this:  If avoiding risk is your guiding principle, your default modus operandi, then you're doing life the wrong way.

The issue I have with this thought is that not all risks are equal, and it's up to people to decide what is a necessary and what is not a necessary risk.

While I don't think it's what you meant, it sounds like you're saying people trying too hard to avoid catching the virus aren't really living life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:22:25 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 01, 2020, 02:19:05 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:13:22 PM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

Not my point, exactly.

I guess my point is this:  If avoiding risk is your guiding principle, your default modus operandi, then you're doing life the wrong way.

The issue I have with this is that thought is that not all risks are equal, and it's up to people to decide what is a necessary and what is not a necessary risk.

I completely agree with that statement.

But what I was replying to was the assertion, "I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence."  Maybe I took it wrong, but that sounds like someone who is fully prepared to hibernate at the slightest hint of risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 01, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:13:22 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

Not my point, exactly.

I guess my point is this:  If avoiding risk is your guiding principle, your default modus operandi, then you're doing life the wrong way.
That's pretty black and white, or hyperbolic.  Some risks are worth taking and others aren't, right?

At this point, total lockdown is ridiculous...but total opening isn't good right now, right? 

Aren't we all really just arguing where to draw the line somewhere east and west of the midpoint?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:27:45 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 01, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
Some risks are worth taking and others aren't, right?

Right.

Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 01, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
At this point, total lockdown is ridiculous...but total opening isn't good right now, right? 

I'm remain unconvinced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 02:29:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 12:53:44 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
I've seen a few people in our neighborhood wearing masks on our (nearly-) daily walks.  But most don't.  In fact the latest from the governor specifically said you did NOT have to wear a mask during outside recreation - but still abide by social distancing.

It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.

With this virus, I'd avoid the elderly before avoiding the children.

Hey, I resemble that remark.  (OK, not elderly by any means, but sometimes I qualify for the senior discount.  And now, the senior shopping hours.)

The thing with the little kids is that they are hard to keep corralled, and the parents don't want to move with them into the street.  So we give way to them.

And yes, if I see someone walking slower and more feebly than us, then I will give way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:41:32 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 02:29:37 PM
The thing with the little kids is that they are hard to keep corralled, and the parents don't want to move with them into the street.  So we give way to them.

Hey, I resemble that remark.  (as a parent, not a child)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 02:42:17 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:22:25 PMBut what I was replying to was the assertion, "I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence."  Maybe I took it wrong, but that sounds like someone who is fully prepared to hibernate at the slightest hint of risk.

It did not strike me that way.  From the way people have been talking about silent cases, herd immunity, etc. just in this thread, it seems to me that much of the motivation for unwinding stay-at-home measures comes from "It hurts and I want it to stop."  In Kansas we are about to start the first phase of a four-phase reopening plan this coming Monday even though we had record-setting daily counts of new cases just a week ago, which puts us in defiance of the CDC recommendation not to transition to a new phase of relaxing restrictions until daily new cases have declined for 14 consecutive days.

Governors will be aware that as time goes on, compliance with stay-at-home orders decays, legislative support for emergency measures becomes more precarious, and the willingness of law enforcement to apply sanctions evaporates.  So I suspect many of them are trying to keep the situation from destabilizing by establishing frameworks that allow them to satisfy popular demand by relaxing restrictions, while providing for fallback to more stringent measures if cases take off again after 14 days in each new stage.  While this is not an unreasonable approach per se, I suspect it is happening too soon in many states.

The virus doesn't care whether you are or I am fed up about not being able to see friends in person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:55:34 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 02:42:17 PM
The virus doesn't care whether you are or I am fed up about not being able to see friends in person.

I fully understand that.  But that doesn't mean I intend to live in fear of it.

Quote from: J N Winkler on April 30, 2020, 11:47:29 AM
Even with the county now looking to phase out stay-at-home sooner rather than later, we are seeing footdragging from the business community locally.  Businesses don't want to have fresh outbreaks traced back to their premises, they don't want the community as a whole to bounce back into lockdown, and they consider themselves shielded from liability for as long as a mandatory order is in effect.

Meanwhile, in other news...

Quote from: KWCH-12  |  What's the plan? Wichita businesses prepare for end of stay-at-home order
With an assumption that Kansas' stay-at-home order will be lifted by Monday and a recommendation from the Sedgwick County Commission not to extend the local order further, businesses in Wichita share excitement to reopen while maintaining a focus on safe reintroduction.

...

"We're just hoping (Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly) lets us go back to work, hoping that she trusts in the community for them to take the right precautions," says Prime Time Barbershop owner Nelson Tovar.

Assuming that trust in the community gives such businesses the green light, Razor Smooth owner and barber Geneka Lindberg says she plans to open at 10 a.m. Monday (May 4) and "will work the full week straight."

I read a news article this morning that quoted a restaurant owner as being eager to reopen on Day 1, but I can't find the article now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 03:08:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:55:34 PMI fully understand that.  But that doesn't mean I intend to live in fear of it.

That's the thing--thinking the current push to unwind restrictions is too precipitate is not the same as living in fear of the virus.

Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:55:34 PMI read a news article this morning that quoted a restaurant owner as being eager to reopen on Day 1, but I can't find the article now.

I think we can take it as read that there is some diversity of opinion in the business community.  At the other end of this shutdown, there were some restaurants that opted to close right away, but the Eagle did at least one article on a bar whose owner did not want to shut down for St. Patrick's Day and was chafing against the headcount restrictions that were then in effect.

Meanwhile, right now the Eagle has an article on businesses that are all ready to go on May 4, and I have just received an email from Fidelity Bank telling me that they are not reopening for lobby service until May 31.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 03:33:46 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 01, 2020, 03:08:48 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:55:34 PM
I fully understand that.  But that doesn't mean I intend to live in fear of it.

That's the thing--thinking the current push to unwind restrictions is too precipitate is not the same as living in fear of the virus.

Agreed.  I'm sorry if I imply that I think people who hesitate to unwind restrictions are living in fear of the virus.  Again, what started this chain of posts was a specific statement made by a specific member about "staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating", "not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so", and "looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence".  I read that as indicative of something that more closely resembles living in fear than mere difference of opinion.  You didn't read it that way, and maybe I'm off the mark there.

To be clear, I don't personally look down on anyone who takes more restrictive measures than I do–staying indoors, wearing a mask everywhere, wearing gloves at the store, refusing to answer the door, staying away from family and friends–during these times.  I see it as a matter of different people determining for themselves what is an appropriate response.  Similarly, I expect others to not look down on me for taking less restrictive measures than they do.  But I do have a fundamental difference with someone who is not only content but even eager to make substantial lifestyle changes based primarily on "is it safe".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on May 01, 2020, 04:11:45 PM
NY finally shut down schools till September.
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-cuomo-schools-shut-20200501-atdzkkxjjzcyljyjnaejkfdahe-story.html

I expect NJ to follow shortly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 01, 2020, 04:21:01 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:22:25 PM
But what I was replying to was the assertion, "I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence."  Maybe I took it wrong, but that sounds like someone who is fully prepared to hibernate at the slightest hint of risk.

It should be noted that I am not fond of people to begin with, so avoiding crowded places is something that is not personally terribly painful for me to do. Indeed, I look forward to using "but covid" as an excuse for getting out of social obligations I wasn't thrilled about in the first place.

Regarding my attitude on safety for this matter, it should be noted that I am less concerned about my own personal safety, and more concerned about contributing to the problem by exposing others.

I am also more concerned about negative impacts to my finances than negative impacts to my health, which feeds both directly and indirectly into my desire to continue avoiding crowded places. Directly, because being in them typically means I am spending money on something that I don't *need* to be spending money on. Indirectly, because if there is a resurgence of cases requiring shutdown rules be retightened, this increases the likelihood I will experience a loss of income, so I do not want to be potentially contributing to such a thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 04:29:29 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on May 01, 2020, 04:11:45 PM
NY finally shut down schools till September.
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-cuomo-schools-shut-20200501-atdzkkxjjzcyljyjnaejkfdahe-story.html

I expect NJ to follow shortly.
Will any states go back to school this year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on May 01, 2020, 04:34:16 PM
https://fox40.com/news/local-news/sacramento-county-extends-health-order-through-may-22-some-restrictions-relaxed/ (https://fox40.com/news/local-news/sacramento-county-extends-health-order-through-may-22-some-restrictions-relaxed/)




https://fox40.com/news/local-news/yolo-county-extends-shelter-in-place-order-through-may-31/ (https://fox40.com/news/local-news/yolo-county-extends-shelter-in-place-order-through-may-31/)


Update Yolo and Sacramento counties have extended their shelter in place orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 04:38:09 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 01, 2020, 04:21:01 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 02:22:25 PM
But what I was replying to was the assertion, "I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence."  Maybe I took it wrong, but that sounds like someone who is fully prepared to hibernate at the slightest hint of risk.

It should be noted that I am not fond of people to begin with, so avoiding crowded places is something that is not personally terribly painful for me to do. Indeed, I look forward to using "but covid" as an excuse for getting out of social obligations I wasn't thrilled about in the first place.

Regarding my attitude on safety for this matter, it should be noted that I am less concerned about my own personal safety, and more concerned about contributing to the problem by exposing others.

I am also more concerned about negative impacts to my finances than negative impacts to my health, which feeds both directly and indirectly into my desire to continue avoiding crowded places. Directly, because being in them typically means I am spending money on something that I don't *need* to be spending money on. Indirectly, because if there is a resurgence of cases requiring shutdown rules be retightened, this increases the likelihood I will experience a loss of income, so I do not want to be potentially contributing to such a thing.

Thank you for not taking offense to my response, and for posting a well-crafted reply.

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 04:29:29 PM
Will any states go back to school this year?

Knowing quite a lot of teachers, I shudder to imagine their getting thrown back into "normal" class routine for just a few weeks before the end of the school year.  The Plan B that many public school districts and private schools have implemented could be described variously as lacking, haphazard, decentralized, disjointed, etc.  To go from that right back into a scheme in which everything is expected to be normalized, routine, and unified–right before the end of the year–goodness, I hope they don't do that to the teachers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on May 01, 2020, 04:53:26 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 04:29:29 PM
Will any states go back to school this year?

Seems very unlikely. Missouri Gov. Mike Parson ordered all schools in the state closed for the rest of the academic year in early April. At my high school, my last day was supposed to be May 6 (seniors get out a few weeks earlier than the rest of the student body). Seniors were allowed to freeze their grades per class as they stood at the end of 3rd quarter (the last day of school before spring break) and senior finals were cancelled as well. The other three grade levels don't have those options.

I'm not as sentimental about high school as are some of my friends, so while I would've liked to have a senior prom and an on-time graduation ceremony, I personally am very happy about how this turned out. School was out for the summer, like, three weeks ago.  8-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 04:54:23 PM
Prom and the graduation ceremony are greatly overrated, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 05:09:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 04:54:23 PM
Prom and the graduation ceremony are greatly overrated, in my opinion.

I didn't even bother to go to my prom, seemed like a waste of time.  I tried to get out of the graduation ceremony so I could get moving to Phoenix but my Grandma gave me $500 in cash to stay a week for the photo op.  I moved so much as a kid that I had zero attachment to my high school, the people, nor the town. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 05:10:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 05:09:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 04:54:23 PM
Prom and the graduation ceremony are greatly overrated, in my opinion.

I didn't even bother to go to my prom, seemed like a waste of time.  I tried to get out of the graduation ceremony so I could get moving to Phoenix but my Grandma gave me $500 in cash to stay a week for the photo op.  I moved so much as a kid that I had zero attachment to my high school, the people, nor the town.
Probably feels different if you move a ton. I've lived in one town my whole life so I have a bigger connection to my school. Not graduating till 2021 though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on May 01, 2020, 05:15:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 05:10:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 05:09:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 04:54:23 PM
Prom and the graduation ceremony are greatly overrated, in my opinion.

I didn't even bother to go to my prom, seemed like a waste of time.  I tried to get out of the graduation ceremony so I could get moving to Phoenix but my Grandma gave me $500 in cash to stay a week for the photo op.  I moved so much as a kid that I had zero attachment to my high school, the people, nor the town.
Probably feels different if you move a ton. I've lived in one town my whole life so I have a bigger connection to my school. Not graduating till 2021 though.

This. I'm not too broken up over not having a senior prom, but I've been in the same school district with the same people since I was four years old. The worst part about this is that my high school has a 100-year-old nationally renowned newsmagazine (The Kirkwood Call) for which I'm the design editor. It's a rite of passage to end your senior year on a publication with a banquet and a whole host of other celebratory gatherings, none of which are possible due to the virus. So prom and graduation don't really matter that much to me compared to that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 05:23:17 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on May 01, 2020, 05:15:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 05:10:15 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 05:09:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 04:54:23 PM
Prom and the graduation ceremony are greatly overrated, in my opinion.

I didn't even bother to go to my prom, seemed like a waste of time.  I tried to get out of the graduation ceremony so I could get moving to Phoenix but my Grandma gave me $500 in cash to stay a week for the photo op.  I moved so much as a kid that I had zero attachment to my high school, the people, nor the town.
Probably feels different if you move a ton. I've lived in one town my whole life so I have a bigger connection to my school. Not graduating till 2021 though.

This. I'm not too broken up over not having a senior prom, but I've been in the same school district with the same people since I was four years old. The worst part about this is that my high school has a 100-year-old nationally renowned newsmagazine (The Kirkwood Call) for which I'm the design editor. It's a rite of passage to end your senior year on a publication with a banquet and a whole host of other celebratory gatherings, none of which are possible due to the virus. So prom and graduation don't really matter that much to me compared to that.

In my case we moved six times by the time I was 18.  The last batch of real close friends I had during that time was in Middle School back in Connecticut.  By the time we ended up in Michigan I knew that I wanted to move to Arizona after my older brother (especially after we went off roading and a drinking bender at some questionable locales) showed me the city.  It meant way more for my parents and Grand parents than it did me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on May 01, 2020, 05:32:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 01, 2020, 05:23:17 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on May 01, 2020, 05:15:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 05:10:15 PM
Probably feels different if you move a ton. I've lived in one town my whole life so I have a bigger connection to my school. Not graduating till 2021 though.

This. I'm not too broken up over not having a senior prom, but I've been in the same school district with the same people since I was four years old. The worst part about this is that my high school has a 100-year-old nationally renowned newsmagazine (The Kirkwood Call) for which I'm the design editor. It's a rite of passage to end your senior year on a publication with a banquet and a whole host of other celebratory gatherings, none of which are possible due to the virus. So prom and graduation don't really matter that much to me compared to that.

In my case we moved six times by the time I was 18.  The last batch of real close friends I had during that time was in Middle School back in Connecticut.  By the time we ended up in Michigan I knew that I wanted to move to Arizona after my older brother (especially after we went off roading and a drinking bender at some questionable locales) showed me the city.  It meant way more for my parents and Grand parents than it did me.

It means way more for my parents and grandparents than it does for me, too. St. Louis has an absurd obsession with high schools — it's essentially a meme at this point because, if you meet someone for the first time in St. Louis, you will invariably be asked, "Where did you go to high school?"

Both my parents went to the same high school I did and graduated together. My mom, being a popular social butterfly all four years, enjoyed high school much more than my dad, who is a lot like me in that he had a derision for the "popular kids" but was well enough known and enjoyed his time with his closely knit group of friends. It's a miracle they ever got married, and equally as unsurprising that they divorced when I was 13.

Anyways, she, as a result, is far more concerned with the ceremonial aspect of graduation than is he, who couldn't care less whether there's a ceremony as long as I'm happy and get a diploma. I tend to fall more into his camp. It would be nice to have a ceremony (my school promised us we'd have one this summer, but we'll see how well they can stick to that promise given how uncertain the immediate future seems to be), but if there's not, I won't care too much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 01, 2020, 06:58:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 04:54:23 PM
Prom and the graduation ceremony are greatly overrated, in my opinion.

Remember that it's not for the graduate. It's for their family. I want my degree ASAP but my family wants a legit graduation. This virtual thing will be odd, but a nice holdover until something physical later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 02, 2020, 12:47:54 AM
Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.

Wouldn't they be on the other side of the street, more than 6 feet away?
Or unless it's a sidewalk: in that case I usually move a bit into the grass, and the other person/people usually do the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 02, 2020, 02:47:34 AM
As someone who went to his senior prom, I would advise anyone in the class of 2020... you're not missing anything important.

On the other hand, it takes having the experience and subsequent retrospective to fully appreciate that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 02, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 02, 2020, 02:47:34 AM
As someone who went to his senior prom, I would advise anyone in the class of 2020... you're not missing anything important.

On the other hand, it takes having the experience and subsequent retrospective to fully appreciate that.

Heh, I didn't go to mine, and I've never felt I missed anything. But then, I also disliked a lot of the people in my high school class other than my immediate circle of friends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 02, 2020, 09:08:12 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on May 02, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 02, 2020, 02:47:34 AM
As someone who went to his senior prom, I would advise anyone in the class of 2020... you're not missing anything important.

On the other hand, it takes having the experience and subsequent retrospective to fully appreciate that.

Heh, I didn’t go to mine, and I’ve never felt I missed anything. But then, I also disliked a lot of the people in my high school class other than my immediate circle of friends.

I didn't go to mine either...and hell, I didn't even have a circle of friends either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 02, 2020, 09:28:01 AM
Last year i had one kid get his undergraduate degree, one got his graduate degree, took the whole family to Mexico for a week and went on a two week trip to Europe with the wife.  None of those things would have happened this year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 10:06:00 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 02, 2020, 12:47:54 AM
Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.

Wouldn't they be on the other side of the street, more than 6 feet away?
Or unless it's a sidewalk: in that case I usually move a bit into the grass, and the other person/people usually do the same.

Most people don't even bother to stay right on a wide walk and take up a spot dead center.  The six foot thing wouldn't even be much of a problem if people actually followed the same right of way they do on a bike or car. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 02, 2020, 10:59:18 AM
It's interesting to see how the USA was dealing with the H2N2 influenza pandemic in the summer of 1957.  A vaccine was developed early on for the "Asian flu" but the US epidemic reached its peak in October 1957, when only about 7 million people had received the vaccine.  It is estimated the pandemic killed 116,000 in the United States, which is equivalent to 222,000 today when adjusted for population. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19GO1OnoeFI


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 11:03:21 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 02, 2020, 12:47:54 AMWouldn't they be on the other side of the street, more than 6 feet away?

Or unless it's a sidewalk: in that case I usually move a bit into the grass, and the other person/people usually do the same.

Here there are very few sidewalks more than six feet wide, so people often just go onto the grass to maintain six-foot spacing.

Not all blocks have sidewalks, and I used to be annoyed when people would walk along the curb on the right-hand side, thus aiming themselves right at me, instead of walking on the left side facing traffic, as people are supposed to do when they walk in the street.  However, I've come to realize these people are gone a lot faster than the ones who actually walk on the correct side and thus take forever to pass.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 02, 2020, 11:29:51 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 02, 2020, 10:59:18 AM
It's interesting to see how the USA was dealing with the H2N2 influenza pandemic in the summer of 1957.  A vaccine was developed early on for the "Asian flu" but the US epidemic reached its peak in October 1957, when only about 7 million people had received the vaccine.  It is estimated the pandemic killed 116,000 in the United States, which is equivalent to 222,000 today when adjusted for population. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19GO1OnoeFI
Too bad they didn't take the measures we did to keep deaths down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 12:01:38 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 29, 2020, 10:36:50 PM
That says something when you care more about a dead economy than dead citizens.

↓  couldn't help but think of this  ↓

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on May 02, 2020, 12:21:21 PM
Just saw the Blue Angels from the top of a hill in my neighborhood (near King St and I-395). Got them while they were flying north along Columbia Pike towards the Pentagon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 12:29:24 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.

Quote from: webny99 on May 02, 2020, 12:47:54 AM
Wouldn't they be on the other side of the street, more than 6 feet away?
Or unless it's a sidewalk: in that case I usually move a bit into the grass, and the other person/people usually do the same.

Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 11:03:21 AM
Here there are very few sidewalks more than six feet wide, so people often just go onto the grass to maintain six-foot spacing.

Not all blocks have sidewalks, and I used to be annoyed when people would walk along the curb on the right-hand side, thus aiming themselves right at me, instead of walking on the left side facing traffic, as people are supposed to do when they walk in the street.  However, I've come to realize these people are gone a lot faster than the ones who actually walk on the correct side and thus take forever to pass.

My neighborhood is hit or miss with sidewalks.  My block doesn't have any, some blocks have one sidewalk, others have two.  When going for a walk, especially without my kids, I often walk on the street even if there's a sidewalk available.  I do this for a number of reasons:  the sidewalk is often strewn with dirt, and I want to track as little of that as possible into the house;  an annoying number of people park their cars in the driveway straddling the sidewalk, which often means walking through their yard (more dirt);  I figure, with the virus panic, people coming toward me on the street would feel less intimidated by my coming the other way toward them than if we were on the narrow sidewalk.  But none of that answers the question initially asked, "Wouldn't they be on the other side of the street?"

When I go for a walk in the neighborhood, especially if I'm with my kids but otherwise as well, I choose which side to walk on primarily based on how many times I'll have to cross the street.  Consider, for example, these two paths for a simple walk around the block:

(https://i.imgur.com/QENYd5P.png)

The brown path crosses a street eight times.
The blue path crosses a street zero times.

I consider it safer practice to walk the blue path, even though that puts me on the "wrong" side of the street 100% of the route.  If the streets had heavy traffic, then I probably wouldn't.  On the other hand, if they had heavy traffic, then I probably wouldn't choose them for my walk to begin with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 01:02:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 12:29:24 PMMy neighborhood is hit or miss with sidewalks.  My block doesn't have any, some blocks have one sidewalk, others have two.  When going for a walk, especially without my kids, I often walk on the street even if there's a sidewalk available.  I do this for a number of reasons:  the sidewalk is often strewn with dirt, and I want to track as little of that as possible into the house;  an annoying number of people park their cars in the driveway straddling the sidewalk, which often means walking through their yard (more dirt);  I figure, with the virus panic, people coming toward me on the street would feel less intimidated by my coming the other way toward them than if we were on the narrow sidewalk.

Pretty much every subdivision in Wichita is hit-and-miss in terms of sidewalks.  I've also found dirt fouling to be common because far too many people use weeds, which don't provide an adequate defense against soil erosion, as their yard covering.

Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 12:29:24 PMWhen I go for a walk in the neighborhood, especially if I'm with my kids but otherwise as well, I choose which side to walk on primarily based on how many times I'll have to cross the street.  Consider, for example, these two paths for a simple walk around the block:

(https://i.imgur.com/QENYd5P.png)

The brown path crosses a street eight times.

The blue path crosses a street zero times.

I consider it safer practice to walk the blue path, even though that puts me on the "wrong" side of the street 100% of the route.  If the streets had heavy traffic, then I probably wouldn't.  On the other hand, if they had heavy traffic, then I probably wouldn't choose them for my walk to begin with.

If you walk counterclockwise along the blue path, you are in the street on the left side all the way around and thus are 100% kosher.

I have not checked whether Kansas law has a requirement to walk facing traffic when in the street.  If it does, I would expect the chances of active enforcement within a subdivision to be low.  Nevertheless, it is a best practice, and I prefer not to deviate from it if I can avoid doing so, because I otherwise have to pause to check my six for vehicles overtaking me in my lane.

I have observed that people who are walking their dogs are much more likely to walk on the right, and I have wondered whether this is a deliberate choice to minimize the amount of time they have to spend managing the dog's reaction to strangers.  On foot, propinquity is much more brief when meeting and passing from opposite directions than when overtaking in the same direction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 02, 2020, 01:11:47 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 12:01:38 PM
Quote from: US71 on April 29, 2020, 10:36:50 PM
That says something when you care more about a dead economy than dead citizens.

↓  couldn't help but think of this  ↓



People will die!  My favorite part is when he proposes a 4mph national speed limit lol.  These self righteous politicians should lock down the entire world economy until 2024 just to be safe... or people will die!

(https://i.imgur.com/kgtK2IV.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 01:26:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 12:29:24 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.

Quote from: GaryV on May 01, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
It is interesting to try to avoid the people you meet coming in the opposite direction.  It sometimes becomes like a game of "chicken" to determine who will turn aside first.  The only "rule" that seems to be universal is that you try to avoid the families with small kids.  After that, it's whoever blinks first.

Quote from: webny99 on May 02, 2020, 12:47:54 AM
Wouldn't they be on the other side of the street, more than 6 feet away?
Or unless it's a sidewalk: in that case I usually move a bit into the grass, and the other person/people usually do the same.

Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 11:03:21 AM
Here there are very few sidewalks more than six feet wide, so people often just go onto the grass to maintain six-foot spacing.

Not all blocks have sidewalks, and I used to be annoyed when people would walk along the curb on the right-hand side, thus aiming themselves right at me, instead of walking on the left side facing traffic, as people are supposed to do when they walk in the street.  However, I've come to realize these people are gone a lot faster than the ones who actually walk on the correct side and thus take forever to pass.

My neighborhood is hit or miss with sidewalks.  My block doesn't have any, some blocks have one sidewalk, others have two.  When going for a walk, especially without my kids, I often walk on the street even if there's a sidewalk available.  I do this for a number of reasons:  the sidewalk is often strewn with dirt, and I want to track as little of that as possible into the house;  an annoying number of people park their cars in the driveway straddling the sidewalk, which often means walking through their yard (more dirt);  I figure, with the virus panic, people coming toward me on the street would feel less intimidated by my coming the other way toward them than if we were on the narrow sidewalk.  But none of that answers the question initially asked, "Wouldn't they be on the other side of the street?"

When I go for a walk in the neighborhood, especially if I'm with my kids but otherwise as well, I choose which side to walk on primarily based on how many times I'll have to cross the street.  Consider, for example, these two paths for a simple walk around the block:

(https://i.imgur.com/QENYd5P.png)

The brown path crosses a street eight times.
The blue path crosses a street zero times.

I consider it safer practice to walk the blue path, even though that puts me on the "wrong" side of the street 100% of the route.  If the streets had heavy traffic, then I probably wouldn't.  On the other hand, if they had heavy traffic, then I probably wouldn't choose them for my walk to begin with.

Locally here in Fresno the lack of side walks or bike lanes for such a large city is surprisingly high.  Generally I run before sunrise and cycle when the sun is starting to come up.  My primary concern is getting hit by a car (which has happened twice) so I tend to run roads that have little traffic (even if they are in bad neighborhoods) or I can get to something like the dirt outcrop of some farmers land.  I try to always face traffic when I run which is counterintuitive to traditional traffic control but it has a huge advantage in that I can see what is coming and have time to get out of the way.  Nobody seems to give a crap if I jaywalk while running but they really do start caring fast if I'm on a bike.  Either way, I'm far more concerned about a vehicle over getting within six feet of someone not wearing a mask.  I would rank dogs as my number two concern, they are chase animals by nature.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 02:02:08 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 01:02:52 PM
If you walk counterclockwise along the blue path, you are in the street on the left side all the way around and thus are 100% kosher.

Well yeah, but I don't go the same direction or even walk around the same blocks every time I go on a walk.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 01:26:33 PM
I would rank dogs as my number two concern

I see what you did there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 02:06:45 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 02:02:08 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 01:02:52 PM
If you walk counterclockwise along the blue path, you are in the street on the left side all the way around and thus are 100% kosher.

Well yeah, but I don't go the same direction or even walk around the same blocks every time I go on a walk.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 01:26:33 PM
I would rank dogs as my number two concern

I see what you did there.

Actually that's an unintentional pun, but that definitely is a problem in the dark. 
Title: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 02, 2020, 05:11:16 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on May 02, 2020, 12:21:21 PM
Just saw the Blue Angels from the top of a hill in my neighborhood (near King St and I-395). Got them while they were flying north along Columbia Pike towards the Pentagon.

I parked at the medical office buildings on Woodburn Road near Fairfax Hospital. (If anyone watched the Alex Smith documentary on ESPN last night, you should recognize the hospital.) Convenient location because my mom had a few things she wanted to give me and it's near her house, so we met there and saw the flypast. Good place to watch and a beautiful day for it. I'll upload a picture later.


(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200502/7f3056ad3180cb538eb51341f4784725.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on May 02, 2020, 05:26:21 PM
I went to the office Thursday to work.  Coming home, I was caught in a traffic jam due to roadwork.  I actually welcomed it as a sign of normalcy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 05:34:55 PM
I've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 05:50:56 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 05:34:55 PM
I've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?

We're just forgetting about pandemics and recessions of the past.  One pandemic I wasn't even aware was discussed today.  The biggest thing we are forgetting is that as a collective civilization most of us live in the moment and don't pay the past much heed.  There will come a time when this all happens all over again and what is going on now will brought up by a few for historical context. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 02, 2020, 05:57:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 05:34:55 PM
I've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

I've usually heard that in commercials, trying to acknowledge the sucky current situation without saying anything meaningful. Makes sense, since the target audience (and probably the ad writers) include people too young to remember the earlier pandemics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 05:34:55 PMI've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

*  World War II was more fiscally disruptive (defense spending reached about 40% of GDP in 1944).

*  The Great Depression led to a higher percentage of unemployment, for a longer period, with no safety net (no unemployment insurance or Social Security at the beginning).

*  The 1918 influenza pandemic killed many more (both absolutely and as a percentage of the US population), though it itself was not as lethal as the Black Death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:00:20 PM
A month of lockdown for most of the world may be fairly unprecedented, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 06:11:38 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:00:20 PM
A month of lockdown for most of the world may be fairly unprecedented, though.

As opposed to years of it during WWII?  At least locally in the U.S. there was certainly travel and liberty restrictions.  Not to mention how much non-essential businesses were shuttered and never came back.  Example; World War II essentially killed off the pre-War Gold Mining industry.  I would imagine that similar stories can be found in every country that was in that war or closely affected by it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 02, 2020, 06:15:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 05:34:55 PM
I've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?

I was a fan of the word "unprecedented" before it was cool.  :)

There are plenty of historical comparisons to certain aspects of this pandemic, but the big defining feature that makes this unprecedented is that the whole world is affected. Nobody's exempt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 06:11:38 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:00:20 PM
A month of lockdown for most of the world may be fairly unprecedented, though.

As opposed to years of it during WWII?  At least locally in the U.S. there was certainly travel and liberty restrictions.  Not to mention how much non-essential businesses were shuttered and never came back.  Example; World War II essentially killed off the pre-War Gold Mining industry.  I would imagine that similar stories can be found in every country that was in that war or closely affected by it.
still quite a different story. At the very least, schools were not affected.
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:51:20 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...
Partially panic, partially economy affording such stay at home, partially people being used to epidemics being thing if the past.
Another interesting aspect, pretty strong for US in particular, it is about breaking the stereotype of "not gonna happen to us". Something similar happened with 9/11, if you think about it.
First, it was "for those unsanitary Asian countries only", then "OK, maybe Europe, but not US". Part 3 "only those dense liberal cities, not us outside of NYC" is now playing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on May 02, 2020, 07:01:27 PM
I see on the news the US just had its worst day so far with 2909 deaths.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 07:13:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there.

For one, data shows that restrictions barely work in US. Cas count is pretty flat for past month - meaning restrictions need to be tightened before relaxing them can be discussed. Right now, any ease of restrictions would cause flare up.
Don't get me wrong, I am willing to pay back my paycheck just to be allowed to go to work. But numbers tell a pretty ugly story...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:24:57 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 07:13:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there.

For one, data shows that restrictions barely work in US. Cas count is pretty flat for past month - meaning restrictions need to be tightened before relaxing them can be discussed. Right now, any ease of restrictions would cause flare up.
Don't get me wrong, I am willing to pay back my paycheck just to be allowed to go to work. But numbers tell a pretty ugly story...

I just look at the current hospital data and don't see a point at having every "non-essential"  business"  keep closed.  Stuff like bike shops, furniture stores, and car washes for example could follow the protocols already being set by other businesses that are required to operate.  I don't see why every park would need to be shut down like the governor out here in California was supposedly planning...closing a specific set of "problem"  beaches ultimately made more sense.  I'm not talking full opening, but not easing it up and allowing except a select few to operate isn't going to work either. 

Either way, I'm hoping this antibody stuff turns out to be promising.  It would be nice to get some sort of "qualified biological"  immunity on paper just in case that turns into some sort pandemic passport at some point.  Regardless I want to know just for my own curiosity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on May 02, 2020, 07:31:41 PM
Bike shops are open in NJ and deemed essential. I noticed that "self serve" automatic car washes seem to be able to operate as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:48:29 PM
Quote from: NJRoadfan on May 02, 2020, 07:31:41 PM
Bike shops are open in NJ and deemed essential. I noticed that "self serve" automatic car washes seem to be able to operate as well.

Our bike shop just reopened.  The car self serve car washes are operating but not the ones that had a detail service.  I detailed cars for years on a mobile service, the only real interaction you have with anyone is when you get paid/tipped. 

Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 02, 2020, 07:53:07 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 02, 2020, 07:01:27 PM
I see on the news the US just had its worst day so far with 2909 deaths.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

The worst day for deaths occurred even as America has been locked down for the past 6 weeks.  There are 244 days from now till January 1, 2021 which is the earliest most experts believe a vaccine can be developed.  Even if the US remained under lock down, if the US averages 2200 deaths per day we will be sitting at 603,000 deaths before the vaccine is ready to go.  With antibody tests suggesting a mortality rate of roughly .3% and assuming herd immunity is reached at 60%, there would be 592,200 deaths if the virus just naturally ran its course.  So unless if we start to average well below 2200 deaths per day, the vaccine won't have anybody left to save.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 07:58:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:24:57 PM
I just look at the current hospital data and don't see a point at having every "non-essential"  business"  keep closed.  Stuff like bike shops, furniture stores, and car washes for example could follow the protocols already being set by other businesses that are required to operate.  I don't see why every park would need to be shut down like the governor out here in California was supposedly planning...closing a specific set of "problem"  beaches ultimately made more sense.  I'm not talking full opening, but not easing it up and allowing except a select few to operate isn't going to work either. 
Thing is, it doesn't quite work that way. (disclaimer: nothing personal about bike shops, I am giving a generic argument)
Infection rate is a big deal, and currently, US balances at about 1.00 infectee per one infector. Opening a few businesses with all precautions may increase the rate just enough to go into flare-up mode - even with all those endless wipes and masks, there is no bullet-proof guarantee.  (although drive-through automatic car wash has as little effect as I can think of. But demand probably dropped like a rock - along with gas consumption). That's why something may need to be improved before something else is relaxed. I hope someone in CDC is collecting statistics on things like mask usage, takeout sales and associated regional trends to come up with a more sensible set of restrictions, but I am less than optimistic about their capabilities.
Again, this is all regional; for one, NYC may have a very solid baseline to start easing by now, but US as a whole is still in a bad shape. And you don't look at hospital capacity or bare case count, you have to look at day-to-day new case count trends.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:24:57 PM
Either way, I'm hoping this antibody stuff turns out to be promising.  It would be nice to get some sort of "qualified biological"  immunity on paper just in case that turns into some sort pandemic passport at some point.  Regardless I want to know just for my own curiosity.
Point is, nobody knows how well those "pandemic passports" would work. Secondary symptomless (or mild) reinfection can be safe for you, but you may be a spreader. No "get out of jail free" cards until that is clear.
As for curiosity... welcome to the club, your membership ID is US123,456,789
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:06:12 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 02, 2020, 07:53:07 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 02, 2020, 07:01:27 PM
I see on the news the US just had its worst day so far with 2909 deaths.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

The worst day for deaths occurred even as America has been locked down for the past 6 weeks.  There are 244 days from now till January 1, 2021 which is the earliest most experts believe a vaccine can be developed.  Even if the US remained under lock down, if the US averages 2200 deaths per day we will be sitting at 603,000 deaths before the vaccine is ready to go.  With antibody tests suggesting a mortality rate of roughly .3% and assuming herd immunity is reached at 60%, there would be 592,200 deaths if the virus just naturally ran its course.  So unless if we start to average well below 2200 deaths per day, the vaccine won't have anybody left to save.

And that's kind of the point I was getting at.  If the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?  Things in people's lives are already breaking if not completely broken from being non-functional.  If safety standards could be introduced into businesses that are closed right now will it really have a net worse affect than keeping everything closed?  That's the dollars and cents question that a lot of folks seem to be asking now.  How much longer at full restrictions is really going to cause a benefit to case loads?  If there is a way to slowly reintroduce facets of work and business that doesn't overwhelm hospital loads then it probably should explored on a regional basis.  Counting on a virus to save the day probably won't save anyone for at least a solid year.  Even when and IF a vaccine is developed it will take a long time to get wide distribution anyways. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:09:21 PM
Regarding a "pandemic passport"  I know that's just likely wishful thinking.  Either way it would be nice to know if my wife and I had it just for peace of mind.  My Cousin caught COVID in course of her job at work already earlier on in the pandemic, I would be curious to find out if she has taken an antibody test. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 08:11:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:06:12 PMIf the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?
I suspect this is not about hardening, this is about compliance.
Just a recent example: Here in NY, masks are required to be worn in public by governor's order; yet yesterday I saw a state trooper, of all people,  doing a traffic stop without a mask. A car window was rolled down, I didn't notice if driver had a mask. I specifically didn't quite like that since training a replacement trooper would have to be paid out of my taxes..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:19:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 08:11:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:06:12 PMIf the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?
I suspect this is not about hardening, this is about compliance.
Just a recent example: Here in NY, masks are required to be worn in public by governor's order; yet yesterday I saw a state trooper, of all people,  doing a traffic stop without a mask. A car window was rolled down, I didn't notice if driver had a mask. I specifically didn't quite like that since training a replacement trooper would have to be paid out of my taxes..

Funny, I was just talking to an officer that had his mask down once he got out of the squad car.  I don't even he realized that it was down when he was talking to me, there really wasn't time to have a conversation about pulling it back up.  I'm find myself questioning the effectiveness of some of the home brew masks I see, a lot of them seem to slip off the nose easily.  Right now in my day to day life I'm subject to four different orders on COVID-19, keeping them all straight is getting frustrating. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 08:28:36 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:19:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 08:11:30 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:06:12 PMIf the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?
I suspect this is not about hardening, this is about compliance.
Just a recent example: Here in NY, masks are required to be worn in public by governor's order; yet yesterday I saw a state trooper, of all people,  doing a traffic stop without a mask. A car window was rolled down, I didn't notice if driver had a mask. I specifically didn't quite like that since training a replacement trooper would have to be paid out of my taxes..

Funny, I was just talking to an officer that had his mask down once he got out of the squad car.  I don't even he realized that it was down when he was talking to me, there really wasn't time to have a conversation about pulling it back up.  I'm find myself questioning the effectiveness of some of the home brew masks I see, a lot of them seem to slip off the nose easily.  Right now in my day to day life I'm subject to four different orders on COVID-19, keeping them all straight is getting frustrating.
Covering nose makes you slightly less vulnerable, covering mouth makes those around you much less vulnerable.
But yes, there is a mess of ideas and orders. Starting with CDC saying masks are not needed (and how may lives did that cost, I wonder?)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bing101 on May 02, 2020, 10:01:22 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 05:34:55 PMI've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

*  World War II was more fiscally disruptive (defense spending reached about 40% of GDP in 1944).

*  The Great Depression led to a higher percentage of unemployment, for a longer period, with no safety net (no unemployment insurance or Social Security at the beginning).

*  The 1918 influenza pandemic killed many more (both absolutely and as a percentage of the US population), though it itself was not as lethal as the Black Death.


Also I remember hearing that Polio and Smallpox were once huge pandemics prior to COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 02, 2020, 10:01:45 PM
How long before we have stores & public places saying "You cannot wear a mask here"  

Then threaten the person by calling the cops or getting Angry


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on May 02, 2020, 10:38:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:48:29 PM
Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat?  :banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on May 02, 2020, 10:44:20 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on May 02, 2020, 10:38:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:48:29 PM
Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat?  :banghead:
Parks are another nonsensical one.

Take Los Angeles, for example – they closed all beaches in LA and Orange Counties the other week, but then everyone in those counties just went to Newport Beach. Before long there were 40,000 people at Newport Beach and the authorities in LA County were genuinely curious as to why that happened.

It's almost like keeping parks and beaches open will *reduce* overcrowding by allowing people more than one choice for recreational activities. Ugh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 02, 2020, 11:05:12 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 02, 2020, 10:01:45 PM
How long before we have stores & public places saying "You cannot wear a mask here"  

Then threaten the person by calling the cops or getting Angry


iPhone

This may or may  not be true, but I've seen in numerous places that if you have a health condition that precludes you wearing a mask, you're not required to. And due to HIPAA or other privacy concerns, stores are not allowed to inquire about your condition. So, if you decline to wear a mask and say it's because of your health, the facility has to take your word for it and cannot question you or refuse you entry.

I'm allergic to heavy-handed government decrees. They cause my blood pressure to skyrocket.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 02, 2020, 11:39:15 PM
I definitely remember thinking before the pandemic that infectious diseases were only a threat in undeveloped third world countries and that one could never possibly threaten the Western world.  Even past pandemics were not talked about as much - as far as I knew, the Western world hadn't seen one since Spanish Flu, which until recently was treated as a historical footnote, and other major diseases was made to sound like just a normal part of pre-vaccine life with the exception of the Black Death.  So yeah, the current crises would be very unprecedented for someone my age.

Not to mention the widespread bare shelves in grocery stores and the full-blown meat shortage.  Food has never been so hard to find in my life.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there. 
I would think the internet is another reason for the restrictions.  I imagine there would be a lot less support for them if people couldn't work from home, order things online, Zoom chat their friends, and binge watch Tiger King throughout the lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 03, 2020, 12:12:08 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 02, 2020, 11:39:15 PM
I definitely remember thinking before the pandemic that infectious diseases were only a threat in undeveloped third world countries and that one could never possibly threaten the Western world.  Even past pandemics were not talked about as much - as far as I knew, the Western world hadn't seen one since Spanish Flu, which until recently was treated as a historical footnote, and other major diseases was made to sound like just a normal part of pre-vaccine life with the exception of the Black Death.  So yeah, the current crises would be very unprecedented for someone my age.

Not to mention the widespread bare shelves in grocery stores and the full-blown meat shortage.  Food has never been so hard to find in my life.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.
I was wondering if this might be the answer.
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.
:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...
The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there. 
I would think the internet is another reason for the restrictions.  I imagine there would be a lot less support for them if people couldn't work from home, order things online, Zoom chat their friends, and binge watch Tiger King throughout the lockdown.

There's becoming less and less support for the restrictions as time goes by. Partly, I think, because so many (most?) can't work from home and risk losing their livelihoods from loss of their businesses or the jobs from the lost businesses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 12:26:06 AM
Quote from: qguy on May 03, 2020, 12:12:08 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 02, 2020, 11:39:15 PM
I definitely remember thinking before the pandemic that infectious diseases were only a threat in undeveloped third world countries and that one could never possibly threaten the Western world.  Even past pandemics were not talked about as much - as far as I knew, the Western world hadn't seen one since Spanish Flu, which until recently was treated as a historical footnote, and other major diseases was made to sound like just a normal part of pre-vaccine life with the exception of the Black Death.  So yeah, the current crises would be very unprecedented for someone my age.

Not to mention the widespread bare shelves in grocery stores and the full-blown meat shortage.  Food has never been so hard to find in my life.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.
I was wondering if this might be the answer.
Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.
:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...
The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there. 
I would think the internet is another reason for the restrictions.  I imagine there would be a lot less support for them if people couldn't work from home, order things online, Zoom chat their friends, and binge watch Tiger King throughout the lockdown.

There's becoming less and less support for the restrictions as time goes by. Partly, I think, because so many (most?) can't work from home and risk losing their livelihoods from loss of their businesses or the jobs from the lost businesses.

And...the weather is getting nicer out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on May 03, 2020, 01:17:11 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 02, 2020, 11:39:15 PM
I definitely remember thinking before the pandemic that infectious diseases were only a threat in undeveloped third world countries and that one could never possibly threaten the Western world.  Even past pandemics were not talked about as much - as far as I knew, the Western world hadn't seen one since Spanish Flu, which until recently was treated as a historical footnote, and other major diseases was made to sound like just a normal part of pre-vaccine life with the exception of the Black Death.  So yeah, the current crises would be very unprecedented for someone my age.

Not to mention the widespread bare shelves in grocery stores and the full-blown meat shortage.  Food has never been so hard to find in my life.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 02, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 05:57:42 PM
Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Quote from: kalvado on May 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

:hmmm:  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there. 
I would think the internet is another reason for the restrictions.  I imagine there would be a lot less support for them if people couldn't work from home, order things online, Zoom chat their friends, and binge watch Tiger King throughout the lockdown.

If this happened in 2005... or even 2010, things would be much different in this country. Sure, you'd have a different president handling things, but the economic shutdown would have been way worse.

Heck, broadband internet didn't even pass dial-up until 2005. Social media has also helped us as we can see how we are doing compared to other nations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 03:02:22 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 11:03:21 AM
Not all blocks have sidewalks, and I used to be annoyed when people would walk along the curb on the right-hand side, thus aiming themselves right at me, instead of walking on the left side facing traffic, as people are supposed to do when they walk in the street.  However, I've come to realize these people are gone a lot faster than the ones who actually walk on the correct side and thus take forever to pass.

I find this idea that one is "supposed to" walk on the left side of the street facing traffic intriguing. This is sound advice when you find yourself walking on a busy road with no sidewalk, but
1) I am not aware of there being any law to this effect around here, certainly not one that is ever enforced, and
2) I don't see the principle really being applicable when dealing with quiet residential side streets.

My walkings on sidewalkless streets are almost entirely of the "quiet residential side streets" variety. In these cases I don't consistently walk down one side versus the other. In order to avoid coming close to other people walking I may switch sides, or just temporarily walk in the middle (which is fine so long as there isn't a car coming).

Relatedly though, sometimes it is necessary for one person on a sidewalk to step out into a normally busy street in order to pass someone walking the other way at sufficient distance. Preferably it is the person walking towards oncoming traffic who does this for visibility reasons, though I have found myself doing it when walking with traffic in cases where the oncoming pedestrian is unwilling to depart the sidewalk.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:09:21 PM
Regarding a "pandemic passport"  I know that's just likely wishful thinking.  Either way it would be nice to know if my wife and I had it just for peace of mind.  My Cousin caught COVID in course of her job at work already earlier on in the pandemic, I would be curious to find out if she has taken an antibody test.

With currently available tests you can't know, as they are not accurate enough for clinical use. They are only accurate enough for epidemiological use, where the ~5% error rate can be smoothed away by aggregating data from enough people.

Quote from: Sctvhound on May 03, 2020, 01:17:11 AM
If this happened in 2005... or even 2010, things would be much different in this country. Sure, you'd have a different president handling things, but the economic shutdown would have been way worse.

I think it's more likely that if this happened in 2005, the technology available at the time would have forced the response to be different. The shutdowns ordered would have been less comprehensive, but the instructions to cover faces may have come sooner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Yes, it's good to maintain social distance while walking outside. No need to go overboard with it though when the encounter will last all of 1.5 seconds, usually with no conversation or contact which are the primary cause of virus transfers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 09:11:45 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Yes, it's good to maintain social distance while walking outside. No need to go overboard with it though when the encounter will last all of 1.5 seconds, usually with no conversation or contact which are the primary cause of virus transfers.
Sure - assuming both parties have their masks on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 09:18:39 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Yes, it's good to maintain social distance while walking outside. No need to go overboard with it though when the encounter will last all of 1.5 seconds, usually with no conversation or contact which are the primary cause of virus transfers.

It's not that I really feel the need, it's more that others have a deer in the headlights look.  That being the case I'm usually the one who takes the initiative to move reasonably.  The store doesn't bother me all that much, it's rare seeing anyone without at least a basic mask anymore mandated or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:39:38 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 09:11:45 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Yes, it's good to maintain social distance while walking outside. No need to go overboard with it though when the encounter will last all of 1.5 seconds, usually with no conversation or contact which are the primary cause of virus transfers.
Sure - assuming both parties have their masks on.

You missed the point about the mask. If you're not talking to each other, and you quickly pass by, the mask has no effect on each other. The 6 feet of social distance came about BEFORE the requirement to have a mask. The mask was an additional requirement WHILE INSIDE due to the fact that social distancing often csnt be fully maintained.

As parks reopen, masks generally are suggested but not required, and people are often going to be passing within 6 feet of each other.  A sidewalk is no different, except for the width being more narrow. Again, it's fine to move apart for a moment while passing each other. Feeling the need to walk in the middle of the street swings too far in the opposite direction, and puts you in more danger if you haphazardly do it without looking. And no matter how often people say they always look, our accident rate would be 0 if that was true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.

Also, something that I forgot to mention in the context of running.  Asphalt is way softer of a running surface as opposed to concrete.  I tend to prefer to run on the shoulder whenever possible over a sidewalk.  So maybe it doesn't make much different walking but it definitely does have less of an impact during exercise. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 10:32:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.

Also, something that I forgot to mention in the context of running.  Asphalt is way softer of a running surface as opposed to concrete.  I tend to prefer to run on the shoulder whenever possible over a sidewalk.
Many side streets don't have shoulders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:33:31 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 10:32:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.

Also, something that I forgot to mention in the context of running.  Asphalt is way softer of a running surface as opposed to concrete.  I tend to prefer to run on the shoulder whenever possible over a sidewalk.
Many side streets don't have shoulders.

Many streets here don't have shoulders or sidewalks.  I refer to the detail I went into above about facing traffic while running. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 11:14:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:39:38 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 09:11:45 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Yes, it's good to maintain social distance while walking outside. No need to go overboard with it though when the encounter will last all of 1.5 seconds, usually with no conversation or contact which are the primary cause of virus transfers.
Sure - assuming both parties have their masks on.

You missed the point about the mask. If you're not talking to each other, and you quickly pass by, the mask has no effect on each other. The 6 feet of social distance came about BEFORE the requirement to have a mask. The mask was an additional requirement WHILE INSIDE due to the fact that social distancing often csnt be fully maintained.

As parks reopen, masks generally are suggested but not required, and people are often going to be passing within 6 feet of each other.  A sidewalk is no different, except for the width being more narrow. Again, it's fine to move apart for a moment while passing each other. Feeling the need to walk in the middle of the street swings too far in the opposite direction, and puts you in more danger if you haphazardly do it without looking. And no matter how often people say they always look, our accident rate would be 0 if that was true.
Yes it is all about probability. And we're arguing if the glass is half empty or half full.
Quickly passing without a mask has very low transmission probability - lets say 0.1%. Now you multiply that by number of such encounters and probability of stranger carrying a hidden infection. Opening parks increases number of encounters - hence transmissions. You may argue it is a very odd chance and the number of transmissions is minimal; I am saying this  is yet another straw. Straws add up - and we know what the last straw can do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on May 03, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:33:31 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 10:32:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.

Also, something that I forgot to mention in the context of running.  Asphalt is way softer of a running surface as opposed to concrete.  I tend to prefer to run on the shoulder whenever possible over a sidewalk.
Many side streets don't have shoulders.

Many streets here don't have shoulders or sidewalks.  I refer to the detail I went into above about facing traffic while running.

I always found this baffling, particularly in residential areas in urban or suburban areas. Where are people expected to go when they need to walk somewhere (my guess is that these are parts of the country where people don't walk).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 03, 2020, 11:45:32 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.

Also, something that I forgot to mention in the context of running.  Asphalt is way softer of a running surface as opposed to concrete.  I tend to prefer to run on the shoulder whenever possible over a sidewalk.  So maybe it doesn't make much different walking but it definitely does have less of an impact during exercise.
Philly would hate you bro . They hate the asphalt runners & dont believe ashphalt is softer then the sidewalk.

The runners are usually older gentlemen who run in the middle of the street & hold up traffic for blocks


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 03, 2020, 11:49:50 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on May 03, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:33:31 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 10:32:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.

Also, something that I forgot to mention in the context of running.  Asphalt is way softer of a running surface as opposed to concrete.  I tend to prefer to run on the shoulder whenever possible over a sidewalk.
Many side streets don't have shoulders.

Many streets here don't have shoulders or sidewalks.  I refer to the detail I went into above about facing traffic while running.

I always found this baffling, particularly in residential areas in urban or suburban areas. Where are people expected to go when they need to walk somewhere (my guess is that these are parts of the country where people don't walk).
Blame this on developers who deliberately cut sidewalks & proper draining in neighborhoods in order to save money.

Here in Delaware/Delco area many many many neighborhoods & streets are missing sidewalks because of this.

Developers are now required to add sidewalks in every construction project they do along with the Dot helping on road improvements.

This could have been solved years ago if they wouldnt have had this loophole in construction.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 03, 2020, 12:00:31 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on May 03, 2020, 11:39:29 AMI always found this [nonprovision of sidewalks] baffling, particularly in residential areas in urban or suburban areas. Where are people expected to go when they need to walk somewhere (my guess is that these are parts of the country where people don't walk).

In this very auto-dependent city, some people do walk for exercise, and house lots are routinely platted with a sidewalk easement.  I've long suspected that whether a physical sidewalk is actually built (otherwise than as driveway crossings) comes down to how willing planners are to keep their feet on house builders' and developers' necks.  Locally, that seems to have reached an apogee in the 1970's and 1980's (most houses from that period that I see in my subdivision do have sidewalks in front).  Older postwar houses, from the 1950's and 1960's, tend not to have sidewalks, and in some subdivisions did not even have paved streets in front (another concession the planners should never have made--paving with curbs and enclosed drainage takes a paving petition, which essentially requires unanimity from the abutters, though some of these streets now have a thin layer of asphalt for dust suppression).  Subdivisions from the 1980's onward, which tend to be built out faster so that the developers can unload Clean Water Act responsibilities onto the residents ASAP, also tend not to have sidewalks.

Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 03:02:22 AMI find this idea that one is "supposed to" walk on the left side of the street facing traffic intriguing. This is sound advice when you find yourself walking on a busy road with no sidewalk, but 1) I am not aware of there being any law to this effect around here, certainly not one that is ever enforced, and 2) I don't see the principle really being applicable when dealing with quiet residential side streets.

I haven't yet dug into the law for either Kansas or New York.  In California it is a requirement statewide outside what are called "business or residential districts" (per CVC 21956), and municipalities have the ability to enact ordinances requiring people to walk facing traffic everywhere within their jurisdictions where a sidewalk is absent.  There is actually caselaw on this that comes back in a quick Google search because failure to walk facing traffic is a pretext that police in California use for what are called "wall stops."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 12:09:51 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 03, 2020, 12:00:31 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on May 03, 2020, 11:39:29 AMI always found this [nonprovision of sidewalks] baffling, particularly in residential areas in urban or suburban areas. Where are people expected to go when they need to walk somewhere (my guess is that these are parts of the country where people don't walk).

In this very auto-dependent city, some people do walk for exercise, and house lots are routinely platted with a sidewalk easement.  I've long suspected that whether a physical sidewalk is actually built (otherwise than as driveway crossings) comes down to how willing planners are to keep their feet on house builders' and developers' necks.  Locally, that seems to have reached an apogee in the 1970's and 1980's (most houses from that period that I see in my subdivision do have sidewalks in front).  Older postwar houses, from the 1950's and 1960's, tend not to have sidewalks, and in some subdivisions did not even have paved streets in front (another concession the planners should never have made--paving with curbs and enclosed drainage takes a paving petition, which essentially requires unanimity from the abutters, though some of these streets now have a thin layer of asphalt for dust suppression).  Subdivisions from the 1980's onward, which tend to be built out faster so that the developers can unload Clean Water Act responsibilities onto the residents ASAP, also tend not to have sidewalks.

One thing which makes homeowners oppose sidewalk construction is requirement to clear snow (shich can be a pain in this climate) and in some areas maintain sidewalks on their expense (or, better, city bills for maintenance).
Our home is on cul-de-sac of a side street with about 10 homes, making sidewalk moot. The idea that I may have to clean our pretty long street front would easily shave off 10% of property value. 
There were some horror stories of people facing 10-20+ thousand bills for city sidewalk projects (not in our town, though).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 12:21:06 PM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on May 03, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:33:31 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 10:32:13 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Hey now, don't knock it till you try it.

Also, something that I forgot to mention in the context of running.  Asphalt is way softer of a running surface as opposed to concrete.  I tend to prefer to run on the shoulder whenever possible over a sidewalk.
Many side streets don't have shoulders.

Many streets here don't have shoulders or sidewalks.  I refer to the detail I went into above about facing traffic while running.

I always found this baffling, particularly in residential areas in urban or suburban areas. Where are people expected to go when they need to walk somewhere (my guess is that these are parts of the country where people don't walk).

In the context of Fresno it has annexed a lot of areas that were once part of unincorporated Fresno County.  The County doesn't have the same rules that the City does on pedestrian access so it encourages developers to do things on the cheap.  The City doesn't have the budget to quickly install side walks in areas they annex so usually they just make new developments install them.  Given the huge empty tracts of land or older neighborhoods it doesn't lead to much consistently with side walk access.  For what it is worth overwhelming most people drive here.  There is a bus service but it isn't the best. 

J.N.; I was surprised to see anyone mention a "pretext stop" besides me.  I have the hardest time explaining what those are to anyone who hasn't lived around some sort of Law Enforcement environment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 03, 2020, 12:30:41 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200503/b5c3541cae2ecae1bf17ab4244097782.jpg)

Maga protesters in Delaware.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 03, 2020, 12:36:44 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on May 02, 2020, 10:38:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:48:29 PM
Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat?  :banghead:
Often times, families are generally exempt from social distancing rules (or should be, at the very least), as they are within six feet apart in their own house anyways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 01:02:58 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 03, 2020, 12:36:44 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on May 02, 2020, 10:38:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:48:29 PM
Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat?  :banghead:
Often times, families are generally exempt from social distancing rules (or should be, at the very least), as they are within six feet apart in their own house anyways.

Exactly, how is a large family who lives in the same house at any more risk because they piled into a vehicle?  As long as nobody else tags along it's hard to see how policies like that are legit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 01:07:35 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 01:02:58 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 03, 2020, 12:36:44 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on May 02, 2020, 10:38:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:48:29 PM
Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat?  :banghead:
Often times, families are generally exempt from social distancing rules (or should be, at the very least), as they are within six feet apart in their own house anyways.

Exactly, how is a large family who lives in the same house at any more risk because they piled into a vehicle?  As long as nobody else tags along it's hard to see how policies like that are legit.
If there was a bit more time to discuss and formulate things, then yes. A lot of these emergency policies are issued in a "first rough draft" conditions, though - and I find it hard to blame policymakers for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 01:12:38 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 01:07:35 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 01:02:58 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 03, 2020, 12:36:44 PM
Quote from: Revive 755 on May 02, 2020, 10:38:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 07:48:29 PM
Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat?  :banghead:
Often times, families are generally exempt from social distancing rules (or should be, at the very least), as they are within six feet apart in their own house anyways.

Exactly, how is a large family who lives in the same house at any more risk because they piled into a vehicle?  As long as nobody else tags along it's hard to see how policies like that are legit.
If there was a bit more time to discuss and formulate things, then yes. A lot of these emergency policies are issued in a "first rough draft" conditions, though - and I find it hard to blame policymakers for that.

Don't get me wrong, I know a lot of these policies are made on the fly.  The bigger problem is that when there are glaring errors like this there is often little motivation to get them clarified or adjusted. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 01:29:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 01:12:38 PM
Don't get me wrong, I know a lot of these policies are made on the fly.  The bigger problem is that when there are glaring errors like this there is often little motivation to get them clarified or adjusted.
Thing is, we're on exact same page. I am looking at the thing a bit from "what I would do in this situation? Would I do it better?" perspective - and I have to admit that many mistakes are very understandable. That doesn't make them non-mistakes, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 03, 2020, 01:30:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 01:12:38 PM
Don't get me wrong, I know a lot of these policies are made on the fly.  The bigger problem is that when there are glaring errors like this there is often little motivation to get them clarified or adjusted. 

They can at least draw on other states' orders. That might repeat other states' mistakes, but at least avoid making new ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 03, 2020, 01:33:54 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 03, 2020, 01:30:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 01:12:38 PM
Don't get me wrong, I know a lot of these policies are made on the fly.  The bigger problem is that when there are glaring errors like this there is often little motivation to get them clarified or adjusted. 

They can at least draw on other states' orders. That might repeat other states' mistakes, but at least avoid making new ones.

People in Kentucky with access to Ohio media markets got in the habit of seeing what DeWine would do to predict what Beshear would do the next day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 02:34:28 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Yes, it's good to maintain social distance while walking outside. No need to go overboard with it though when the encounter will last all of 1.5 seconds, usually with no conversation or contact which are the primary cause of virus transfers.

This is one of those things where I've adopted the habit mostly because I've observed other people doing it and thus determined it is the socially expected behavior. Objectively, yes, the exposure from briefly walking past someone outdoors, even unmasked, is basically nil... but now doesn't seem like a good time to antagonize people, so I just roll with it.

In the supermarket, obviously, it is not physically possible to pass people at greater than six feet. And ironically it's probably a higher risk situation even with faces covered since it is indoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 03:04:08 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 03, 2020, 12:30:41 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200503/b5c3541cae2ecae1bf17ab4244097782.jpg)

Maga protesters in Delaware.


iPhone

What are they gonna do? Shoot the virus? :-D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?

Nope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?

Nope.
Interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 03:59:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?

Nope.
Interesting
Problem of this virus is that it takes about 2 weeks for infections to show up. Places can change policies and not realize response is there, but delayed. Once acceleration is there, nothing will change the trend for another 2 weeks.
So anything is done at risk....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 04:15:05 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?

Nope.
Interesting

This website shows which states are reducing the rate of contagion the fastest:

https://rt.live

Alaska was the first state to reopen. It's doing the best at reducing its r0.

Montana was the second state to reopen. It's doing second best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 04:15:05 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?

Nope.
Interesting

This website shows which states are reducing the rate of contagion the fastest:

https://rt.live

Alaska was the first state to reopen. It's doing the best at reducing its r0.

Montana was the second state to reopen. It's doing second best.
Or maybe it's just because barely anyone lives in these states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 03, 2020, 05:20:54 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 04:15:05 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?
Nope.
Interesting
This website shows which states are reducing the rate of contagion the fastest:
https://rt.live
Alaska was the first state to reopen. It's doing the best at reducing its r0.
Montana was the second state to reopen. It's doing second best.
Or maybe it's just because barely anyone lives in these states.

More specifically, they have no large cities and a very low population density.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 05:33:38 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 03, 2020, 05:20:54 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 04:15:05 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?
Nope.
Interesting
This website shows which states are reducing the rate of contagion the fastest:
https://rt.live
Alaska was the first state to reopen. It's doing the best at reducing its r0.
Montana was the second state to reopen. It's doing second best.
Or maybe it's just because barely anyone lives in these states.

More specifically, they have no large cities and a very low population density.
That's kinda what I said just worded better
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 05:55:49 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 03, 2020, 05:20:54 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 04:15:05 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?
Nope.
Interesting
This website shows which states are reducing the rate of contagion the fastest:
https://rt.live
Alaska was the first state to reopen. It's doing the best at reducing its r0.
Montana was the second state to reopen. It's doing second best.
Or maybe it's just because barely anyone lives in these states.

More specifically, they have no large cities and a very low population density.

Also, it can take up to 14 days to get sick, so we're well under that time period so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 06:34:53 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 02, 2020, 07:53:07 PM
There are 244 days from now till January 1, 2021 which is the earliest most experts believe a vaccine can be developed.  Even if the US remained under lock down, if the US averages 2200 deaths per day we will be sitting at 603,000 deaths before the vaccine is ready to go. 

I'm curious what you mean by "developed" and "ready to go".  Does that mean invented, tested, government approved, large-scale produced, and widely distributed?  I'm more than a little bit skeptical about even the "government approved" part being completed by end of year.  End of next year, maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 06:35:58 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 09:11:45 AM

Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Sure - assuming both parties have their masks on.

:bigass:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on May 03, 2020, 08:04:19 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 03:02:22 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 02, 2020, 11:03:21 AM
Not all blocks have sidewalks, and I used to be annoyed when people would walk along the curb on the right-hand side, thus aiming themselves right at me, instead of walking on the left side facing traffic, as people are supposed to do when they walk in the street.  However, I've come to realize these people are gone a lot faster than the ones who actually walk on the correct side and thus take forever to pass.

I find this idea that one is "supposed to" walk on the left side of the street facing traffic intriguing. This is sound advice when you find yourself walking on a busy road with no sidewalk, but
1) I am not aware of there being any law to this effect around here, certainly not one that is ever enforced, and
2) I don't see the principle really being applicable when dealing with quiet residential side streets.


My walkings on sidewalkless streets are almost entirely of the "quiet residential side streets" variety. In these cases I don't consistently walk down one side versus the other. In order to avoid coming close to other people walking I may switch sides, or just temporarily walk in the middle (which is fine so long as there isn't a car coming).

Relatedly though, sometimes it is necessary for one person on a sidewalk to step out into a normally busy street in order to pass someone walking the other way at sufficient distance. Preferably it is the person walking towards oncoming traffic who does this for visibility reasons, though I have found myself doing it when walking with traffic in cases where the oncoming pedestrian is unwilling to depart the sidewalk.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 02, 2020, 08:09:21 PM
Regarding a "pandemic passport"  I know that's just likely wishful thinking.  Either way it would be nice to know if my wife and I had it just for peace of mind.  My Cousin caught COVID in course of her job at work already earlier on in the pandemic, I would be curious to find out if she has taken an antibody test.

With currently available tests you can't know, as they are not accurate enough for clinical use. They are only accurate enough for epidemiological use, where the ~5% error rate can be smoothed away by aggregating data from enough people.

Quote from: Sctvhound on May 03, 2020, 01:17:11 AM
If this happened in 2005... or even 2010, things would be much different in this country. Sure, you'd have a different president handling things, but the economic shutdown would have been way worse.

I think it's more likely that if this happened in 2005, the technology available at the time would have forced the response to be different. The shutdowns ordered would have been less comprehensive, but the instructions to cover faces may have come sooner.
The law here is:
1) if there's no sidewalk and no shoulder, walk on the left side facing traffic
2) if there's no sidewalk but there is a shoulder, walk with traffic in the shoulder
3) if there is a sidewalk, you must use it.  It is an infraction not to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:00:40 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 03, 2020, 12:00:31 PM
I haven't yet dug into the law for either Kansas or New York. 

It's pretty standard for the Vehicle Code to require walking on the left side.

Quote from: Uniform Vehicle Code, Millennium Edition, Chapter 11, Article V, Section 6
S 11-506-Pedestrians on highways

(a) Where a sidewalk is provided and its use is practicable, it shall be unlawful for any pedestrian to walk along and upon an adjacent roadway.

(b) Where a sidewalk is not available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk only on the shoulder, as far as practicable from the edge of the roadway.

(c) Where neither a sidewalk nor a shoulder is available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk as near as practicable to an outside edge of the roadway, and if on a two-way roadway, shall walk only on the left side of the roadway.

(d) Except as otherwise provided in this chapter, any pedestrian upon a roadway shall yield the right of way to all vehicles upon the roadway.

Quote from: Kansas Statutes, Chapter 8, Article 15, Section 37
8-1537. Same; use of roadways.

(a) Where a sidewalk is provided and its use is practicable, it shall be unlawful for any pedestrian to walk along and upon an adjacent roadway.

(b) Where a sidewalk is not available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk only on a shoulder, as far as practicable from the edge of the roadway.

(c) Where neither a sidewalk nor a shoulder is available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk as near as practicable to an outside edge of the roadway, and, if on a two-way roadway, shall walk only on the left side of the roadway.

(d) Except as otherwise provided in this article, any pedestrian upon a roadway shall yield the right-of-way to all vehicles upon the roadway.

Quote from: New York State Consolidated Laws, Title 7, Article 27, Section 1156
§ 1156. Pedestrians on roadways.

(a) Where sidewalks are provided and they may be used with safety it shall be unlawful for any pedestrian to walk along and upon an adjacent roadway.

(b) Where sidewalks are not provided any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall when practicable walk only on the left side of the roadway or its shoulder facing traffic which may approach from the opposite direction.  Upon the approach of any vehicle from the opposite direction, such pedestrian shall move as far to the left as is practicable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:02:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 03, 2020, 09:18:39 AM

Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 03, 2020, 09:01:48 AM
For those that feel the need to walk in the street to keep 6 feet away...what do you do in the supermarket when passing by someone in the aisle? Climb over the shelving?

Yes, it's good to maintain social distance while walking outside. No need to go overboard with it though when the encounter will last all of 1.5 seconds, usually with no conversation or contact which are the primary cause of virus transfers.

It's not that I really feel the need, it's more that others have a deer in the headlights look.  That being the case I'm usually the one who takes the initiative to move reasonably.  The store doesn't bother me all that much, it's rare seeing anyone without at least a basic mask anymore mandated or not.

Same here.  I try not to walk too closely to other pedestrians not out concern to avoid catching the virus, but out of concern for the feelings of the other person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:04:25 PM
My sister and her husband have decided to come down from the Des Moines area to spend time with family.  My parents and they will have dinner at our house Friday evening, and then we'll grill out at my parents' house on Saturday for Mothers Day.

Nine people total, just under the legal limit.  *whew*
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 09:05:51 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:04:25 PM
My sister and her husband have decided to come down from the Des Moines area to spend time with family.  My parents and they will have dinner at our house Friday evening, and then we'll grill out at my parents' house on Saturday for Mothers Day.

Nine people total, just under the legal limit.  *whew*

I don't think people even pay attention to the stay-at-home orders anymore, to be quite frank. It really wore on people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 09:44:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

I'm not even sure what the rules are anymore.

People keep having huge events in states that supposedly have stay-at-home orders. It's not just the big public protests we keep hearing about, but also a protest by nurses who need more medical equipment. They traveled from California and Puerto Rico all the way to D.C.

I see my neighbors having gatherings that obviously aren't following the orders. And people still keep visiting other states.

A lot of governors express dismay over the protests, but they don't really specifically try to stop them.

I saw a news photo taken just yesterday of people gathering in Central Park, of all places. They weren't wearing masks or bandanas or anything like that. Plus there was the photos of people on beaches in California last weekend.

The lockdowns are frankly pretty dumb, and the lockdowns literally damaged my health. But I think now people just stopped caring about them. There's limits on what people can handle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:49:54 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 09:44:02 PM
There's limits on what people can are willing to handle.

Your own health crisis aside (but only briefly for the purpose of this argument), I think my edit is more accurate as it pertains to the specific situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:08:19 PM
Also, a lot of websites say Kentucky never really had a stay-at-home order, since it was phrased as more of a less threatening "healthy at home" statement. A lot of states are moving towards that, maybe even Ohio.

But trust me, it was a stay-at-home order. It was a really rough time.

I'm not sure if anyone was arrested over it. A lot of people say it was really just a very, very strong suggestion, not an order. But trust me, it was an order. I always thought it was mandatory. Kentucky did tell churches specifically not to have Easter services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 10:15:41 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:08:19 PM
Also, a lot of websites say Kentucky never really had a stay-at-home order, since it was phrased as more of a less threatening "healthy at home" statement. A lot of states are moving towards that, maybe even Ohio.

But trust me, it was a stay-at-home order. It was a really rough time.

I'm not sure if anyone was arrested over it. A lot of people say it was really just a very, very strong suggestion, not an order. But trust me, it was an order. I always thought it was mandatory. Kentucky did tell churches specifically not to have Easter services.
I mean you could still go outside. But everything was closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:19:55 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 10:15:41 PMI mean you could still go outside. But everything was closed.

Most businesses are closed, but I was under the impression that it was an order not to travel more than a very short distance from home, and not even visit friends or family. I got the feeling that all activities were to be limited to just members of one's own household (or alone, if one lives alone). I thought the order was to stay away from all other people unless it was EXTREMELY necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 03, 2020, 10:20:17 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.
I know I became a bit more relaxed. Maybe this is about a better understanding of what is going on... We did some stock up before it became popular (e.g. I bought 5 lb bag of rice - half empty by now), and we didn't go anywhere for about two weeks.
I was in Home Depot today - the third time in 10 days, I believe (and not for vital repairs - those are long term home maintenance projects). Mask, being scared of people, paranoic handwashing and sanitizing - but definitely not panicky lockdown of first few days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:22:12 PM
I'm still terrified to enter any building except my apartment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 10:33:48 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:08:19 PM
Also, a lot of websites say Kentucky never really had a stay-at-home order, since it was phrased as more of a less threatening "healthy at home" statement. A lot of states are moving towards that, maybe even Ohio.

But trust me, it was a stay-at-home order. It was a really rough time.

I'm not sure if anyone was arrested over it. A lot of people say it was really just a very, very strong suggestion, not an order. But trust me, it was an order. I always thought it was mandatory. Kentucky did tell churches specifically not to have Easter services.

Kentucky's order was only to "encourage ... social distancing", yet the governor also officially requested that all the mayors monitor people gathering in groups and "stop them if people are not practicing social distancing".  Ummmm..... that sounds like more than just encouragement to me.

I see a bunch of references to Kentucky having issued an order that no more than ten people can gather.  However, interestingly, the only pertinent executive order I can find on the topic doesn't specify the number ten anywhere in it–but rather prohibiting "any event or convening that brings together groups of
individuals".  Pretty vague.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

It's difficult to say. Locally, today, I observed numerous people hanging out on closed beaches and recreating in closed parks. I don't know if some people have actually stopped caring, but I do know that this is the first time I have observed what is clearly deliberate noncompliance with the rules.

That said, I don't think it is a coincidence that today is the first day this year that the temperature climbed into the 70s here. So this is going to continue and authorities are going to have to either reopen the parks, make the very unpopular move of sending the police out to disperse people, or - perhaps the most likely path - leave the signs and barriers saying things are closed up to try to intimidate people, but don't take any action against those who disregard them.

Of course, closing parks was one of the dumbest moves a lot of places made to begin with - any respiratory infection doesn't spread nearly as effectively outdoors due to air movement, and if it's sunny you have the extra benefit of UV radiation neutralizing virus particles. It's perfectly fine for people to be recreating outdoors so long as they understand they need to not pile on top of each other.

Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:08:19 PM
Also, a lot of websites say Kentucky never really had a stay-at-home order, since it was phrased as more of a less threatening "healthy at home" statement. A lot of states are moving towards that, maybe even Ohio.

Yeah, the media kind of latched onto the term "stay-at-home order" to broadly describe comprehensive shutdown actions, when in fact this is a detail that varies more than the reporting implies.

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this. But many more states have not, and have merely banned the operation of non-essential businesses. CT/NY/NJ aren't stopping anyone from going out for a Sunday drive if they feel like. In CT you are also permitted to go boating so long as you adhere to the rules saying no more than 5 people gathered, and you're even nominally permitted to go see your friends/family so long as they also live in CT and you keep the number of people present to 5 or less.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 03, 2020, 10:41:45 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

It's difficult to say. Locally, today, I observed numerous people hanging out on closed beaches and recreating in closed parks. I don't know if some people have actually stopped caring, but I do know that this is the first time I have observed what is clearly deliberate noncompliance with the rules.

That said, I don't think it is a coincidence that today is the first day this year that the temperature climbed into the 70s here. So this is going to continue and authorities are going to have to either reopen the parks, make the very unpopular move of sending the police out to disperse people, or - perhaps the most likely path - leave the signs and barriers saying things are closed up to try to intimidate people, but don't take any action against those who disregard them.

Of course, closing parks was one of the dumbest moves a lot of places made to begin with - any respiratory infection doesn't spread nearly as effectively outdoors due to air movement, and if it's sunny you have the extra benefit of UV radiation neutralizing virus particles. It's perfectly fine for people to be recreating outdoors so long as they understand they need to not pile on top of each other.

In theory, it should be fine to open parks and beaches because of the reasons you've described above.  In practice, people are incredibly selfish and are going to do whatever they want and force you to be the one to stay out of their way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:43:06 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 10:33:48 PM
I see a bunch of references to Kentucky having issued an order that no more than ten people can gather.  However, interestingly, the only pertinent executive order I can find on the topic doesn't specify the number ten anywhere in it–but rather prohibiting "any event or convening that brings together groups of
individuals".  Pretty vague.

I had thought groups of 2 or more were prohibited.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 10:43:16 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:22:12 PM
I'm still terrified to enter any building except my apartment.

0.09% of Campbell County has tested positive for the virus.  That's one out of 1100 people.  Roughly the same figure as rapes per capita in Cincinnati.  So look at it this way:  if you've never been raped in Cincy, then you probably won't get the virus in Campbell County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 10:47:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 10:43:16 PM
0.09% of Campbell County has tested positive for the virus.  That's one out of 1100 people.

I'm sure it's much more than that. It has to be. There just hasn't been a lot of testing or contact tracing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 03, 2020, 11:19:49 PM
Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 04, 2020, 12:40:16 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 03, 2020, 10:41:45 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

It's difficult to say. Locally, today, I observed numerous people hanging out on closed beaches and recreating in closed parks. I don't know if some people have actually stopped caring, but I do know that this is the first time I have observed what is clearly deliberate noncompliance with the rules.

That said, I don't think it is a coincidence that today is the first day this year that the temperature climbed into the 70s here. So this is going to continue and authorities are going to have to either reopen the parks, make the very unpopular move of sending the police out to disperse people, or - perhaps the most likely path - leave the signs and barriers saying things are closed up to try to intimidate people, but don't take any action against those who disregard them.

Of course, closing parks was one of the dumbest moves a lot of places made to begin with - any respiratory infection doesn't spread nearly as effectively outdoors due to air movement, and if it's sunny you have the extra benefit of UV radiation neutralizing virus particles. It's perfectly fine for people to be recreating outdoors so long as they understand they need to not pile on top of each other.

In theory, it should be fine to open parks and beaches because of the reasons you've described above.  In practice, people are incredibly selfish and are going to do whatever they want and force you to be the one to stay out of their way.

There are different ways of doing things like having a limit on the number of people on popular trails in National Parks or even State Parks.  If a particular trail can't be managed close down the main trail head and require a detour via some longer trails.  People having to walk longer than they normally would tends to get rid of the problem crowds who are just out to overcrowd a short trail or overlook.  Either way, on about 90% of trails out in California you wouldn't run into an issue encountering other people.  Its that 10% of trails that people see on Instagram that are the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 04, 2020, 01:10:54 AM
Sutter County and Yuba County are set to reopen in California.  I would expect a lot more Northern California counties to do the same this week if the Governor's Office keeps holding out on even partially reopening:

https://news.yahoo.com/two-more-california-counties-defy-100023035.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 04, 2020, 01:23:48 AM
Missouri is now starting to reopen, one of multiple phases is in effect starting today. Most, if not all businesses can re-open as long as social distancing guidelines are met.  Local laws override this, however.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 04, 2020, 07:59:47 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.

This isn't the first time I read some most likely false reporting of people being stopped.  I've read it for other states also, which tends to stem from the "a friend of a friend told me" evidence, or may have been a single town that went a little overboard, but suddenly becomes "the entire state is stopping everyone".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tdindy88 on May 04, 2020, 08:32:41 AM
In Indiana the only people being stopped by the cops are those already breaking other laws like speeding or DUI (or both.) If they are seen "violating" the stay-at-home order they'll throw that charge on top of the others. I suspect other states are doing something similar. The police aren't interested in every single person driving out there, just those actively causing trouble. In other words, just like all the other times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on May 04, 2020, 08:33:32 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 03, 2020, 11:19:49 PM
Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.

So by that metric, the U.S. has almost 10,000,000 cases. OK...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 04, 2020, 08:34:27 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on May 04, 2020, 08:33:32 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 03, 2020, 11:19:49 PM
Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.

So by that metric, the U.S. has almost 10,000,000 cases. OK...

3% isn't that unreasonable of a guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 08:44:00 AM
Quote from: tdindy88 on May 04, 2020, 08:32:41 AM
In Indiana the only people being stopped by the cops are those already breaking other laws like speeding or DUI (or both.) If they are seen "violating" the stay-at-home order they'll throw that charge on top of the others. I suspect other states are doing something similar. The police aren't interested in every single person driving out there, just those actively causing trouble. In other words, just like all the other times.

I don't think any motorists are being stopped in the U.S. anymore unless they're breaking some other law or if there's some other extenuating circumstances. A month ago, I'm sure they were. But not now.

I think this is becoming true of other events too. Over the weekend, there was a huge mass gathering in Kentucky. This didn't just violate the stay-at-home order but also an earlier order against very large gatherings such as parades and festivals. When some reporter asked the governor if they'd be punished for it, all he said was, "We'll see." He didn't really commit to punishing them. This seems to be true in other states too.

I don't think the local Memorial Day parade was even officially canceled until just a few days ago. I think they were going to go ahead with it, before they finally decided it would be better to just postpone it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 08:44:32 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 04, 2020, 08:34:27 AM
3% isn't that unreasonable of a guess.

I'm surprised it's not a lot higher.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 08:47:48 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on May 04, 2020, 08:33:32 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 03, 2020, 11:19:49 PM
Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.

So by that metric, the U.S. has almost 10,000,000 cases. OK...

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the USA has had over 10 million cases (that's only 10x higher than the official numbers and until recently they were only testing the most severe cases).  There are potentially millions of asymptomatic cases in this country.  If you assume the mortality rate of this virus is 0.3% (which is the average mortality rate based on worldwide antibody testing) then the number of US cases would surpass 20 million cases (or roughly 6% of the US population has already been exposed to the virus).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 08:53:33 AM
This coronavirus model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it?
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic

The IHME projections have been all over the place.  The projections have ranged from a high of 93,531 deaths on their April 2nd release to a low of 60,308 deaths on their April 17th release (the grey lines are the upper and lower ranges).  Overall their projections have been trending downwards.  Their latest estimate of 72,433 deaths will likely be surpassed over the coming days. 

(https://i.imgur.com/938jIQ3.png)

Per the VOX article: 'the IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak – an assumption that has not been borne out.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 04, 2020, 08:58:57 AM
Quote from: tdindy88 on May 04, 2020, 08:32:41 AM
In Indiana the only people being stopped by the cops are those already breaking other laws like speeding or DUI (or both.) If they are seen "violating" the stay-at-home order they'll throw that charge on top of the others. I suspect other states are doing something similar. The police aren't interested in every single person driving out there, just those actively causing trouble. In other words, just like all the other times.

The main ticket-related reports I've been seeing around here are speeding tickets for extreme speeds. This weekend the Virginia State Police tweeted an image of a summons they issued to someone clocked at 132 mph on I-95 in Fairfax County (speed limit is either 55 or 65, depending on whether he was in the HO/T lanes–they didn't say). The guy's court date isn't until August.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 09:00:08 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 05:33:38 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 03, 2020, 05:20:54 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 04:57:35 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 04:15:05 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?
Nope.
Interesting
This website shows which states are reducing the rate of contagion the fastest:
https://rt.live
Alaska was the first state to reopen. It's doing the best at reducing its r0.
Montana was the second state to reopen. It's doing second best.
Or maybe it's just because barely anyone lives in these states.

More specifically, they have no large cities and a very low population density.
That's kinda what I said just worded better


Not only that, but it also depends on how many they are testing. 

We will know in about 10 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 09:58:11 AM
Let's also take into account the states that are seeing spikes in new cases even while they remain under lock down.  California took aggressive actions when they started to see cases pop in San Francisco and those measures may have prevented the state from getting hit hard early on compared to other states (California has 5 times the population of Michigan yet have reported half the number of deaths).   But now California is seeing an outbreak in new cases and they may experience a worst-case scenario:  you lock down your state for 6 weeks to try to contain the spread... now that containment has failed strict lock down measures are actually needed just as the residents of California lack the motivation to keep adhering to them.

(https://i.imgur.com/HNjr3yY.png)

I'm going under the assumption that no state government will be effective at containing this virus. Enforcing draconian measures in this country will lead Americans to rise up in their capitals to remind their elected leaders that the 1st and 2nd amendments still apply in this country... wait that's already happening! 

Quote from: LM117 on May 03, 2020, 03:04:08 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 03, 2020, 12:30:41 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200503/b5c3541cae2ecae1bf17ab4244097782.jpg)

Maga protesters in Delaware.


iPhone

What are they gonna do? Shoot the virus? :-D

With that in mind, opening the economy back up and implementing regional lock downs when hospitals start to get overrun seems like the only practical solution.  Residents are much more likely to observe stay at home orders when they see body bags being loaded up into frozen semi-containers on their local news.  Until then they probably won't take it too seriously when there's only a few confirmed cases in their county.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:03:04 AM
I think that at this point, this pandemic is dying off in the U.S. It looks like the official count of new cases hasn't gone down much, but that's because they've ramped up testing. These pandemics like this just don't last forever. We saw the same thing with SARS.

It can't last, and it won't last.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AlexandriaVA on May 04, 2020, 10:54:27 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I spent a month in Terra Haute one night...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 10:58:14 AM
Quote from: AlexandriaVA on May 04, 2020, 10:54:27 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I spent a month in Terra Haute one night...


I lived there two years. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 04, 2020, 11:01:18 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I might be able to see the point here. They might be trying to get people out of Michigan beaches and densely populated Chicago, and since Indiana has no famous tourism spots, the tourists will be more spread out. I still don't agree with the decision, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 04, 2020, 11:03:52 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 04, 2020, 11:01:18 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I might be able to see the point here. They might be trying to get people out of Michigan beaches and densely populated Chicago, and since Indiana has no famous tourism spots, the tourists will be more spread out. I still don't agree with the decision, though.

I don't know about that, the Indiana Dunes was a favorite for many I lived in Chicago.  That place always seemed well known to me and I wasn't surprised it ended up becoming a National Park. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tdindy88 on May 04, 2020, 11:39:22 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

Umm...no. There is nothing...NOTHING in the media here in Indianapolis actively promoting people to head out for tourist reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 04, 2020, 11:49:04 AM
Quote from: tdindy88 on May 04, 2020, 11:39:22 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

Umm...no. There is nothing...NOTHING in the media here in Indianapolis actively promoting people to head out for tourist reasons.

I've also not seen anything in this part of the state.  The statewide stay-at-home order was relaxed beginning today, except for Marion, Lake and Cass counties.  The plan is now to relax those three a week from today. 

Retail and restaurants are limited to 50% capacity.  Social gatherings limited to 25 people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 04, 2020, 11:52:17 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 08:53:33 AMPer the VOX article: 'the IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak – an assumption that has not been borne out.'

I think the key takeaway is that the IHME model is an exercise in curve-fitting based on previous experience in China and Italy, not based on underlying SIR/SEIR theories of disease spread.

I don't view these criticisms as offering support for falling back to a strategy of allowing herd immunity to develop.  I haven't seen any advocacy of this approach that explains how overrun of intensive-care resource will be prevented once exponential growth in cases resumes, or accounts for the possibility of disastrous long-term sequelae (SARS, for example, has been correlated with high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 04, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 04, 2020, 12:16:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 04, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

I have to agree! Over the next few years, I feel it will come out that there were a significant number of indirect deaths from causes such as suicides, overdoses, heart attacks (and people that didn't go to the hospital with a legitimate emergency), cancer (due to cancelled elective surgeries), and other causes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on May 04, 2020, 12:18:01 PM
NJ closed the schools... https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1257335443491893249
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 04, 2020, 12:24:05 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 04, 2020, 12:16:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 04, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

I have to agree! Over the next few years, I feel it will come out that there were a significant number of indirect deaths from causes such as suicides, overdoses, heart attacks (and people that didn't go to the hospital with a legitimate emergency), cancer (due to cancelled elective surgeries), and other causes.

And there will be other causes of death that are reduced, such as car accidents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on May 04, 2020, 12:25:45 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 04, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

That's the part of all this that not enough people are considering. Suicides and murders will increase due to the mental stress of isolation and more free time to stew about things out of our control. There are women and children that may now be trapped in abusive situations that increase the time around the abusers. So, in essence, we are trading the lives of the ones with compromised immunities for those with compromised mental or living situations. Which are more valuable to society? Who can say? There are no easy or right answers, but I don't think enough have asked the questions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 04, 2020, 12:51:57 PM
Quote from: MikieTimT on May 04, 2020, 12:25:45 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 04, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

That's the part of all this that not enough people are considering. Suicides and murders will increase due to the mental stress of isolation and more free time to stew about things out of our control. There are women and children that may now be trapped in abusive situations that increase the time around the abusers. So, in essence, we are trading the lives of the ones with compromised immunities for those with compromised mental or living situations. Which are more valuable to society? Who can say? There are no easy or right answers, but I don't think enough have asked the questions.
And what kind of answer do you expect?
Worst case scenario is doubling, if not tripling total annual death rates if in-rush of infected become such that even oxygen will not be available for those who need it. Thar is about 3 -5 million deaths on top of normal. US annual suicide rate is 1% of that, so even 10x increase in suicide does not trip the balance.
100 years ago, when there was no effective cancer or heart attack therapy, psychological support, no concept of family abuse, no social security at all - US life expectancy was about 60% of today's, so death rate was 1.6 times higher. Again, not nearly enough to trip the balance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 04, 2020, 01:24:52 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on May 04, 2020, 12:18:01 PM
NJ closed the schools... https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1257335443491893249

Can't say I'm surprised about that.  Based on informal Facebook groups for the town I live in, most people would rather keep their kids home anyway at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 04, 2020, 02:19:32 PM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on May 04, 2020, 12:18:01 PM
NJ closed the schools... https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1257335443491893249
Took them long enough! Michigan (which was #3 in total cases behind NJ and NY in early April but has been passed by CA, IL, MA, and PA since then) called off in-person instruction for the remainder of the year on April 2
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 02:24:15 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I think people are just sort of ignoring it.

I walked around the neighborhood earlier, and I was floored to see cars with Alabama and Pennsylvania plates parked along the street. This isn't even a neighborhood that really gets any tourism.

My jaw practically hit the ground when I saw this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 04, 2020, 02:40:01 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 02:24:15 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I think people are just sort of ignoring it.

I walked around the neighborhood earlier, and I was floored to see cars with Alabama and Pennsylvania plates parked along the street. This isn't even a neighborhood that really gets any tourism.

My jaw practically hit the ground when I saw this.
People love freedom here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 03:30:42 PM
Ultimately the government needs to weigh the health impacts of reopening the economy vs. the economic impacts of keeping everything shut down.  While Fauci and Berx are concerned with their coronavirus models, those don't take into the long-term health impacts of keeping the country closed for an extended period.  By extending the stay at home orders, you may save 100k lives from COVID but 150k more people end up committing suicide.  Also, the models don't factor in how deeply Americans value their 1st and 2nd amendment rights.  When Americans feel their rights are being violated, they will protest in large gatherings which will impact the infection rate of the virus.  Deborah Birx recently said that the Michigan stay-at-home protests are "˜devastatingly worrisome'.  But they honestly couldn't see that coming?  If the virus is going to spread anyways (either due to large gathering protests or by reopening businesses), letting it spread due to the economy reopening sounds more beneficial.  Now just imagine if the extended economic decline due to the extreme mitigation measures push the world into war.  Compare the hundreds of thousands of COVID lives saved in the short term to the potentially millions of lives lost in war... it becomes a complicated issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on May 04, 2020, 03:35:07 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I have been making sure that I make sure to have some sort of way to show a cop that I am doing something essential (such as ordering food on the Sheetz app and keeping the email in the inbox)  whenever I do head out.  Otherwise, it is too risky for me to bother even though apparently paperwork is not necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 04, 2020, 03:39:37 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 02, 2020, 11:05:12 PM
This may or may  not be true, but I've seen in numerous places that if you have a health condition that precludes you wearing a mask, you're not required to. And due to HIPAA or other privacy concerns, stores are not allowed to inquire about your condition. So, if you decline to wear a mask and say it's because of your health, the facility has to take your word for it and cannot question you or refuse you entry.

I think the problem with that is those last three words. Firefighters who can't wear masks for their breathing equipment, or surgeons who can't wear masks to prevent their germs from getting sneezed inside their patients while they're cut open, are told to not report for duty, or to go into some other line of work, even if they have good health reasons for going unmasked. ISTM that a store can adopt a similar policy to help protect its workers and customers, especially if ordered by the government, or even if (in my state, so far) it's not under government order.

I understand that one southern state, that had forbidden the wearing of masks as an anti-KKK measure, had to modify that policy so people could go into storm shelters with their masks as a tornado approached, since storm shelters aren't normally conducive to social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 03:30:42 PM
Ultimately the government needs to weigh the health impacts of reopening the economy vs. the economic impacts of keeping everything shut down.  While Fauci and Berx are concerned with their coronavirus models, those don't take into the long-term health impacts of keeping the country closed for an extended period.  By extending the stay at home orders, you may save 100k lives from COVID but 150k more people end up committing suicide.  Also, the models don't factor in how deeply Americans value their 1st and 2nd amendment rights.  When Americans feel their rights are being violated, they will protest in large gatherings which will impact the infection rate of the virus.  Deborah Birx recently said that the Michigan stay-at-home protests are "˜devastatingly worrisome'.  But they honestly couldn't see that coming?  If the virus is going to spread anyways (either due to large gathering protests or by reopening businesses), letting it spread due to the economy reopening sounds more beneficial.  Now just imagine if the extended economic decline due to the extreme mitigation measures push the world into war.  Compare the hundreds of thousands of COVID lives saved in the short term to the potentially millions of lives lost in war... it becomes a complicated issue.


First of all, I want to see hard evidence, and not just anecdotal stories, that show how much suicides actually go up due to "stay at home" orders.  And 150,000 *additional* suicides would mean a quadrupling of the number of suicides a year which is just shy of about 50,000 nationwide in any given year. 

Second, regarding the protests.  I firmly believe that if we had strong and consistent messaging from the very top at the beginning of this, that these protests would not have happened.  Or they would have been significantly smaller.  But we haven't.  We have had mixed messages from the President from the beginning on this thing.  And no offense, but the idea that we shouldn't have had "stay at home" orders because people will stupidly protest them, is a huge failure in logic.

Finally, and people don't seem to grasp this, economic decline was going to happen regardless of the stay at home orders.  What if we didn't issue those orders, and we had outbreaks across the country like they saw in New York and are seeing at the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.  Do you think people would operate with a business as normal approach?  Going out to eat, going to work, etc.?  Of course not.  The economic decline was going to happen with this pandemic regardless if we are staying at home. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 04, 2020, 03:53:36 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 04, 2020, 03:39:37 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 02, 2020, 11:05:12 PM
This may or may  not be true, but I've seen in numerous places that if you have a health condition that precludes you wearing a mask, you're not required to. And due to HIPAA or other privacy concerns, stores are not allowed to inquire about your condition. So, if you decline to wear a mask and say it's because of your health, the facility has to take your word for it and cannot question you or refuse you entry.

I think the problem with that is those last three words. Firefighters who can't wear masks for their breathing equipment, or surgeons who can't wear masks to prevent their germs from getting sneezed inside their patients while they're cut open, are told to not report for duty, or to go into some other line of work, even if they have good health reasons for going unmasked. ISTM that a store can adopt a similar policy to help protect its workers and customers, especially if ordered by the government, or even if (in my state, so far) it's not under government order.

I understand that one southern state, that had forbidden the wearing of masks as an anti-KKK measure, had to modify that policy so people could go into storm shelters with their masks as a tornado approached, since storm shelters aren't normally conducive to social distancing.
Actually, I don't think those simple cloth curtains have any health limitations.
That is more for forced filtering masks, N95 and better. Simple masks are aimed primarily at intercepting droplets, and faceshield may be an alternative with no flow restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 04, 2020, 03:57:33 PM
California appears to be getting ready to move to Phase 2 of reopening:

https://news.yahoo.com/california-gov-gavin-newsom-says-193909930.html

Some of the beach closures in Orange County were also rescinded today after agreements were made with local authorities.  As of now Modoc County, Sutter County, and Yuba County have all proceeded with their own reopening plans despite what the State is mandating. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 04, 2020, 03:57:38 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 03:30:42 PM
Ultimately the government needs to weigh the health impacts of reopening the economy vs. the economic impacts of keeping everything shut down.  While Fauci and Berx are concerned with their coronavirus models, those don't take into the long-term health impacts of keeping the country closed for an extended period.  By extending the stay at home orders, you may save 100k lives from COVID but 150k more people end up committing suicide.  Also, the models don't factor in how deeply Americans value their 1st and 2nd amendment rights.  When Americans feel their rights are being violated, they will protest in large gatherings which will impact the infection rate of the virus.  Deborah Birx recently said that the Michigan stay-at-home protests are "˜devastatingly worrisome'.  But they honestly couldn't see that coming?  If the virus is going to spread anyways (either due to large gathering protests or by reopening businesses), letting it spread due to the economy reopening sounds more beneficial.  Now just imagine if the extended economic decline due to the extreme mitigation measures push the world into war.  Compare the hundreds of thousands of COVID lives saved in the short term to the potentially millions of lives lost in war... it becomes a complicated issue.


First of all, I want to see hard evidence, and not just anecdotal stories, that show how much suicides actually go up due to "stay at home" orders.  And 150,000 *additional* suicides would mean a quadrupling of the number of suicides a year which is just shy of about 50,000 nationwide in any given year. 

Second, regarding the protests.  I firmly believe that if we had strong and consistent messaging from the very top at the beginning of this, that these protests would not have happened.  Or they would have been significantly smaller.  But we haven't.  We have had mixed messages from the President from the beginning on this thing.  And no offense, but the idea that we shouldn't have had "stay at home" orders because people will stupidly protest them, is a huge failure in logic.

Finally, and people don't seem to grasp this, economic decline was going to happen regardless of the stay at home orders.  What if we didn't issue those orders, and we had outbreaks across the country like they saw in New York and are seeing at the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.  Do you think people would operate with a business as normal approach?  Going out to eat, going to work, etc.?  Of course not.  The economic decline was going to happen with this pandemic regardless if we are staying at home.

Some of the people who are opposing stay-at-home orders believe that R0 would be below 1 even without them for one of two reasons, either herd immunity (NY is partially there) or they're in a desolate area where they don't meet many people to begin with (South Dakota governor's reasoning).

Then there are the things that are closed that shouldn't be. If people in an area have 20 places to take a walk, and half of them are closed, the remaining ones will be twice as crowded. Also, Massachusetts closed fabric stores. The fabric stores stayed open past the closure date, claiming that they were essential because people make masks out of fabric, but the state disagreed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 04, 2020, 04:11:23 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on May 04, 2020, 03:35:07 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I have been making sure that I make sure to have some sort of way to show a cop that I am doing something essential (such as ordering food on the Sheetz app and keeping the email in the inbox)  whenever I do head out.  Otherwise, it is too risky for me to bother even though apparently paperwork is not necessary.

Sheetz Order:
Burger, all toppings available
Chili (Extra Large)
Fries, topped with Cheese
44 oz Coke.

Officer:  Yeah, this isn't life-sustaining.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 04, 2020, 04:24:45 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 04, 2020, 04:11:23 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on May 04, 2020, 03:35:07 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I have been making sure that I make sure to have some sort of way to show a cop that I am doing something essential (such as ordering food on the Sheetz app and keeping the email in the inbox)  whenever I do head out.  Otherwise, it is too risky for me to bother even though apparently paperwork is not necessary.

Sheetz Order:
Burger, all toppings available
Chili (Extra Large)
Fries, topped with Cheese
44 oz Coke.

Officer:  Yeah, this isn't life-sustaining.
...for your health and safety, please  turn around immediately, return to your home and cook something healthy!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 05:12:00 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 04, 2020, 03:57:38 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 03:30:42 PM
Ultimately the government needs to weigh the health impacts of reopening the economy vs. the economic impacts of keeping everything shut down.  While Fauci and Berx are concerned with their coronavirus models, those don't take into the long-term health impacts of keeping the country closed for an extended period.  By extending the stay at home orders, you may save 100k lives from COVID but 150k more people end up committing suicide.  Also, the models don't factor in how deeply Americans value their 1st and 2nd amendment rights.  When Americans feel their rights are being violated, they will protest in large gatherings which will impact the infection rate of the virus.  Deborah Birx recently said that the Michigan stay-at-home protests are "˜devastatingly worrisome'.  But they honestly couldn't see that coming?  If the virus is going to spread anyways (either due to large gathering protests or by reopening businesses), letting it spread due to the economy reopening sounds more beneficial.  Now just imagine if the extended economic decline due to the extreme mitigation measures push the world into war.  Compare the hundreds of thousands of COVID lives saved in the short term to the potentially millions of lives lost in war... it becomes a complicated issue.


First of all, I want to see hard evidence, and not just anecdotal stories, that show how much suicides actually go up due to "stay at home" orders.  And 150,000 *additional* suicides would mean a quadrupling of the number of suicides a year which is just shy of about 50,000 nationwide in any given year. 

Second, regarding the protests.  I firmly believe that if we had strong and consistent messaging from the very top at the beginning of this, that these protests would not have happened.  Or they would have been significantly smaller.  But we haven't.  We have had mixed messages from the President from the beginning on this thing.  And no offense, but the idea that we shouldn't have had "stay at home" orders because people will stupidly protest them, is a huge failure in logic.

Finally, and people don't seem to grasp this, economic decline was going to happen regardless of the stay at home orders.  What if we didn't issue those orders, and we had outbreaks across the country like they saw in New York and are seeing at the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.  Do you think people would operate with a business as normal approach?  Going out to eat, going to work, etc.?  Of course not.  The economic decline was going to happen with this pandemic regardless if we are staying at home.

Some of the people who are opposing stay-at-home orders believe that R0 would be below 1 even without them for one of two reasons, either herd immunity (NY is partially there) or they're in a desolate area where they don't meet many people to begin with (South Dakota governor's reasoning).

Then there are the things that are closed that shouldn't be. If people in an area have 20 places to take a walk, and half of them are closed, the remaining ones will be twice as crowded. Also, Massachusetts closed fabric stores. The fabric stores stayed open past the closure date, claiming that they were essential because people make masks out of fabric, but the state disagreed.


Actually we have no idea if New York is near herd immunity.  We really don't know enough about this virus and if exposure to it causes one to be immune yet.  So just because the antibody test says "yes, you were exposed to Covid," that may not mean you were exposed to it enough to be immune.  Immunity may only be possible through a vaccine.  Or maybe not even then.

And as far as rural areas, its only a matter of time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 05:17:30 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PM
First of all, I want to see hard evidence, and not just anecdotal stories, that show how much suicides actually go up due to "stay at home" orders.  And 150,000 *additional* suicides would mean a quadrupling of the number of suicides a year which is just shy of about 50,000 nationwide in any given year.

There is a story today in the Washington Post talking about how the coronavirus pandemic is pushing America into a mental health crisis.  It cites a Kaiser Family Foundation poll that found nearly half of Americans report the coronavirus crisis is harming their mental health.  The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration reported their hotline for people in emotional distress registered a more than 1,000 percent increase in April compared with the same time last year.  A study of the Great Depression found that for every percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there was about a 1.6 percent increase in suicides.  Models from Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute estimate that suicides could increase by 18,000 and overdose deaths by more than 22,000 if unemployment rises by 20 percentage points.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PMSecond, regarding the protests.  I firmly believe that if we had strong and consistent messaging from the very top at the beginning of this, that these protests would not have happened.  Or they would have been significantly smaller.  But we haven't.  We have had mixed messages from the President from the beginning on this thing.  And no offense, but the idea that we shouldn't have had "stay at home" orders because people will stupidly protest them, is a huge failure in logic.

From the beginning Americans were told that the stay-at-home measures were needed to help "flatten the curve" to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.  For the most part those measures were successful as the number of hospitalizations in the hardest hit areas have dropped significantly.  But the American people were never told these measures would be extended in an attempt to try to reach containment of the virus, and that appears to be what is happening now.  I think that's why we are seeing these protests as the stay-at-home measures accomplished the original goal of preventing the hospital overruns, yet many Americans are still in lock down.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PMFinally, and people don't seem to grasp this, economic decline was going to happen regardless of the stay at home orders.  What if we didn't issue those orders, and we had outbreaks across the country like they saw in New York and are seeing at the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.  Do you think people would operate with a business as normal approach?  Going out to eat, going to work, etc.?  Of course not.  The economic decline was going to happen with this pandemic regardless if we are staying at home. 

This sounds like an argument for lifting the stay-at-home orders.  When the most effective part of a stay-at-home order is motivating people to gather in large groups to protest them; then they have probably run their course. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 05:26:52 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.
They DID NOT ban non-essential travel they way you're looking at it.  I live in PA.

They defined spending time outdoors as essential activities.  They have strongly recommended social distancing and added masks, but they have ENCOURAGED spending time outdoors.  They later defined it as "in your local area", but at NO POINT did they ever say they were going to pull over travelers and give them tickets.

I live on a road that is not good for walking.  So most days, I have driven to places within 10 min drive to walk.  On weekends when I am not working, I have taken hikes in places within a 30 min drive.  I'm careful to limit myself to places where I think there are few people, but I prefer it that way.  Even though State Parks are closed, many local parks are not.  SO this fallacy that we're "stuck" inside is not a true statement at all in PA.  Yes...many retail and entertainment places are closed...but PA is not in this "lockdown" that is being assumed.

Certain words and terms are being thrown around loosely and it's inaccurate.  "Lockdown" for one.  "Martial law" for another. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 05:28:11 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 08:53:33 AM
The IHME projections have been all over the place.  The projections have ranged from a high of 93,531 deaths on their April 2nd release to a low of 60,308 deaths on their April 17th release (the grey lines are the upper and lower ranges).  Overall their projections have been trending downwards.  Their latest estimate of 72,433 deaths will likely be surpassed over the coming days. 

(https://i.imgur.com/938jIQ3.png)

The key IHME model was just updated and is now predicting 134,000 by August 4th; an 86% increase from the 72,433 deaths they predicted 5 days ago.  These models are really all over the place!

(https://i.imgur.com/BVvMwu9.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 04, 2020, 06:07:01 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 05:17:30 PM
From the beginning Americans were told that the stay-at-home measures were needed to help "flatten the curve" to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.  For the most part those measures were successful as the number of hospitalizations in the hardest hit areas have dropped significantly.  But the American people were never told these measures would be extended in an attempt to try to reach containment of the virus, and that appears to be what is happening now.  I think that's why we are seeing these protests as the stay-at-home measures accomplished the original goal of preventing the hospital overruns, yet many Americans are still in lock down.
My understanding (although it seems tough to understand thinking - or lack theirof - of those in charge) is that current goal is not total containment, as that is impossible by now, but reducing to a daily nuisance - on par with heart attacks. That would impy unlocking - but with limitations, some of them harsh. some SMART limitations.
As for right now, NYT has an article about administration expecting 200k daily infections and 3k daily deaths by the end of month. Hopefully avoidable, but who knows...   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 04, 2020, 06:12:28 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 04, 2020, 04:11:23 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on May 04, 2020, 03:35:07 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 04, 2020, 02:08:56 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 04, 2020, 07:45:44 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 03, 2020, 10:34:05 PM
Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.
I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder
Quote
All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I have been making sure that I make sure to have some sort of way to show a cop that I am doing something essential (such as ordering food on the Sheetz app and keeping the email in the inbox)  whenever I do head out.  Otherwise, it is too risky for me to bother even though apparently paperwork is not necessary.

Sheetz Order:
Burger, all toppings available
Chili (Extra Large)
Fries, topped with Cheese
44 oz Coke.

Officer:  Yeah, this isn't life-sustaining.
Wendy's didn't even let me order a double cheeseburger due to a meat shortage. What did I do instead? Ordered two singles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 04, 2020, 06:23:19 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 04, 2020, 06:12:28 PM
Wendy's didn't even let me order a double cheeseburger due to a meat shortage. What did I do instead? Ordered two singles.

I thought that might happen. Wendy's promise of fresh rather than frozen beef makes it more vulnerable to supply-chain problems.

So far, the supply issues haven't yet impacted my favorite frozen meat lasagna, or non-Wendy's breakfast sandwiches. That includes today's breakfast at Burger King, and the five packages of frozen meat lasagna I bought this afternoon (I could've bought more, if there had been room in my freezer). For fresh beef or chicken, YMMV.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 04, 2020, 06:26:55 PM
In NC, license and registration expiration dates have been extended 5 months.

https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2020/2020-05-04-license-registration-expiration-extension.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2020/2020-05-04-license-registration-expiration-extension.aspx)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on May 04, 2020, 06:29:53 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

Via broadcast ads?

Ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 06:43:31 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 05:17:30 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PM
First of all, I want to see hard evidence, and not just anecdotal stories, that show how much suicides actually go up due to "stay at home" orders.  And 150,000 *additional* suicides would mean a quadrupling of the number of suicides a year which is just shy of about 50,000 nationwide in any given year.

There is a story today in the Washington Post talking about how the coronavirus pandemic is pushing America into a mental health crisis.  It cites a Kaiser Family Foundation poll that found nearly half of Americans report the coronavirus crisis is harming their mental health.  The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration reported their hotline for people in emotional distress registered a more than 1,000 percent increase in April compared with the same time last year.  A study of the Great Depression found that for every percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there was about a 1.6 percent increase in suicides.  Models from Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute estimate that suicides could increase by 18,000 and overdose deaths by more than 22,000 if unemployment rises by 20 percentage points.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PMSecond, regarding the protests.  I firmly believe that if we had strong and consistent messaging from the very top at the beginning of this, that these protests would not have happened.  Or they would have been significantly smaller.  But we haven't.  We have had mixed messages from the President from the beginning on this thing.  And no offense, but the idea that we shouldn't have had "stay at home" orders because people will stupidly protest them, is a huge failure in logic.

From the beginning Americans were told that the stay-at-home measures were needed to help "flatten the curve" to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.  For the most part those measures were successful as the number of hospitalizations in the hardest hit areas have dropped significantly.  But the American people were never told these measures would be extended in an attempt to try to reach containment of the virus, and that appears to be what is happening now.  I think that's why we are seeing these protests as the stay-at-home measures accomplished the original goal of preventing the hospital overruns, yet many Americans are still in lock down.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 03:48:47 PMFinally, and people don't seem to grasp this, economic decline was going to happen regardless of the stay at home orders.  What if we didn't issue those orders, and we had outbreaks across the country like they saw in New York and are seeing at the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.  Do you think people would operate with a business as normal approach?  Going out to eat, going to work, etc.?  Of course not.  The economic decline was going to happen with this pandemic regardless if we are staying at home. 

This sounds like an argument for lifting the stay-at-home orders.  When the most effective part of a stay-at-home order is motivating people to gather in large groups to protest them; then they have probably run their course. 


Lol. You backed down on your 150,000 figure pretty quickly. As I said we will see what the figures are when all is said and done.

And no the messaging hasn't been consistent. Are you kidding me?  The entire thing was downplayed early on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 04, 2020, 06:55:06 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 04, 2020, 03:39:37 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on May 02, 2020, 11:05:12 PM
This may or may  not be true, but I've seen in numerous places that if you have a health condition that precludes you wearing a mask, you're not required to. And due to HIPAA or other privacy concerns, stores are not allowed to inquire about your condition. So, if you decline to wear a mask and say it's because of your health, the facility has to take your word for it and cannot question you or refuse you entry.

I think the problem with that is those last three words. Firefighters who can't wear masks for their breathing equipment, or surgeons who can't wear masks to prevent their germs from getting sneezed inside their patients while they're cut open, are told to not report for duty, or to go into some other line of work, even if they have good health reasons for going unmasked. ISTM that a store can adopt a similar policy to help protect its workers and customers, especially if ordered by the government, or even if (in my state, so far) it's not under government order.

I understand that one southern state, that had forbidden the wearing of masks as an anti-KKK measure, had to modify that policy so people could go into storm shelters with their masks as a tornado approached, since storm shelters aren't normally conducive to social distancing.

I have no problem with a private business establishing a dress code, and I see the requirement to wear a mask as basically a dress code.  So I'm opposed in principle to disallowing businesses to require masks.  However, I hadn't before considered that there were health conditions precluding anyone from wearing a mask, so now I'm not sure where I stand on the issue.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 04, 2020, 05:12:00 PM
Actually we have no idea if New York is near herd immunity.  We really don't know enough about this virus and if exposure to it causes one to be immune yet.  So just because the antibody test says "yes, you were exposed to Covid," that may not mean you were exposed to it enough to be immune.  Immunity may only be possible through a vaccine.  Or maybe not even then.

An important thing to know is that your immune system only keeps antibodies around for so long before deciding it's OK to "forget" that particular virus.  That amount of time varies from virus type to virus type.  For some viruses, you're immune for three weeks;  for others, three years.  Because we don't know how long the human body will "remember" SARS Cov-2, I don't trust that any given percentage of the population being infected will provide herd immunity, because it's quite possible that those infected at the beginning of the curve will have "lost" their immunity by the time the supposed herd immunity is reached, and then they could contract the disease and start the process over again.  You're quite right in saying that "we really don't know enough about this virus".  Models are only as valuable as the data you put in, and predictions are only as good as the assumptions you make.  There's too much uncertainty to trust models and predictions at this stage of the game.

Quote from: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 05:28:11 PM
These models are really all over the place!

See above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 04, 2020, 07:04:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 04, 2020, 06:55:06 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 04, 2020, 03:39:37 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on May 02, 2020, 11:05:12 PM
This may or may  not be true, but I've seen in numerous places that if you have a health condition that precludes you wearing a mask, you're not required to. And due to HIPAA or other privacy concerns, stores are not allowed to inquire about your condition. So, if you decline to wear a mask and say it's because of your health, the facility has to take your word for it and cannot question you or refuse you entry.

I think the problem with that is those last three words. Firefighters who can't wear masks for their breathing equipment, or surgeons who can't wear masks to prevent their germs from getting sneezed inside their patients while they're cut open, are told to not report for duty, or to go into some other line of work, even if they have good health reasons for going unmasked. ISTM that a store can adopt a similar policy to help protect its workers and customers, especially if ordered by the government, or even if (in my state, so far) it's not under government order.

I understand that one southern state, that had forbidden the wearing of masks as an anti-KKK measure, had to modify that policy so people could go into storm shelters with their masks as a tornado approached, since storm shelters aren't normally conducive to social distancing.

I have no problem with a private business establishing a dress code, and I see the requirement to wear a mask as basically a dress code.  So I'm opposed in principle to disallowing businesses to require masks.  However, I hadn't before considered that there were health conditions precluding anyone from wearing a mask, so now I'm not sure where I stand on the issue.

If you have a health condition that precludes you from wearing a mask, it's a really bad idea to be going anywhere right now.  You should have a family member or freind be doing your shopping for you or having stuff delivered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 04, 2020, 07:51:43 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 04, 2020, 06:07:01 PM
As for right now, NYT has an article about administration expecting 200k daily infections and 3k daily deaths by the end of month. Hopefully avoidable, but who knows...   

That would be frightening to see 30k cases per day turn into 200k per day by the end of May.  The governors should just open up their states methodically with the lowest risk business opening first, and keep a close eye on the case count moving forward.  That's about all that can be done at this point.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXL6jZGWAAA3JI5?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXL6LvFXQAAuwom.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 04, 2020, 08:50:18 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 04, 2020, 07:04:34 PM
If you have a health condition that precludes you from wearing a mask, it's a really bad idea to be going anywhere right now.  You should have a family member or freind be doing your shopping for you or having stuff delivered.

That's all well and good if you have someone to do that for you.  But there are plenty of people who don't.




Yesterday, my family went over to the house of an elderly lady from church to take down her picture window, clean it, and put it back up.  While we were there, my wife asked if she had been able to watch our pastor's sermons online.  She had no idea how to even begin to try, so my wife got the link saved to desktop and showed her how to find the videos.  Eight weeks in a row without any church activity, and the problem was solved in about three minutes.

Saying what people "can" and "should" do simply cannot apply to everyone.  Yes, people "can" have some church interaction online, but only people who (a) have the internet and (b) know how to do it.  Similarly, at-risk people "should" have someone else do their shopping for them, but that doesn't work for the loneliest among us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 04, 2020, 08:57:01 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 04, 2020, 11:52:17 AM
I don't view these criticisms as offering support for falling back to a strategy of allowing herd immunity to develop.  I haven't seen any advocacy of this approach that explains how overrun of intensive-care resource will be prevented once exponential growth in cases resumes, or accounts for the possibility of disastrous long-term sequelae (SARS, for example, has been correlated with high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors).

It may be hubris to assume we have any other choice.

For the whole time we've been in shutdown mode, there's been this general idea a lot of people have held onto that if we can just remain shut down long enough, we can snuff the virus out and not have to worry about it anymore thereafter. It seems increasingly apparent that this is not realistic, and indeed, if you look at what the experts have been saying from the beginning - it's been that we can't stop this, we can only slow it down, hopefully enough to prevent hospitals from becoming overrun.

At what point do we collectively acknowledge that perhaps the only way out of this is through?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 04, 2020, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 04, 2020, 08:57:01 PM
At what point do we collectively acknowledge that perhaps the only way out of this is through?

Some nations acknowledged that in the beginning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 04, 2020, 09:25:19 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 04, 2020, 08:57:01 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 04, 2020, 11:52:17 AM
I don't view these criticisms as offering support for falling back to a strategy of allowing herd immunity to develop.  I haven't seen any advocacy of this approach that explains how overrun of intensive-care resource will be prevented once exponential growth in cases resumes, or accounts for the possibility of disastrous long-term sequelae (SARS, for example, has been correlated with high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors).

It may be hubris to assume we have any other choice.

For the whole time we've been in shutdown mode, there's been this general idea a lot of people have held onto that if we can just remain shut down long enough, we can snuff the virus out and not have to worry about it anymore thereafter. It seems increasingly apparent that this is not realistic, and indeed, if you look at what the experts have been saying from the beginning - it's been that we can't stop this, we can only slow it down, hopefully enough to prevent hospitals from becoming overrun.

At what point do we collectively acknowledge that perhaps the only way out of this is through?
I don't know where idea of happily ever after came from. It could - and actually almost did - work on Wuhan as sole hot spot. Not any more.
There are different ways through, including suppressing infection rate with smart measures.
Idea that minimum clothing set of underwear and a gun now has to be supplemented with the mask may be hard to digest, so I don't expect such approach to work in US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 05, 2020, 08:28:01 AM
Here are the countries that saw a significant spike in daily cases yet were able to reduce them by over 90% in short order.  Of these, Switzerland had the biggest spike with daily new cases exceeding 1000 for several days before bringing things under control.

(https://i.imgur.com/RSYOlWs.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/2rmC6NQ.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/utmCbCx.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/v04F8qA.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/MNHpisO.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/IF3Biyh.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 09:09:58 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 04, 2020, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 04, 2020, 08:57:01 PM
At what point do we collectively acknowledge that perhaps the only way out of this is through?

Some nations acknowledged that in the beginning.


Under the assumption that herd immunity is actually a thing with this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 09:19:33 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 09:09:58 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 04, 2020, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 04, 2020, 08:57:01 PM
At what point do we collectively acknowledge that perhaps the only way out of this is through?

Some nations acknowledged that in the beginning.


Under the assumption that herd immunity is actually a thing with this virus.
Lol if it's not some countries are so screwed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 05, 2020, 08:28:01 AM
Here are the countries that saw a significant spike in daily cases yet were able to reduce them by over 90% in short order.  Of these, Switzerland had the biggest spike with daily new cases exceeding 1000 for several days before bringing things under control.

(https://i.imgur.com/RSYOlWs.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/2rmC6NQ.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/utmCbCx.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/v04F8qA.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/MNHpisO.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/IF3Biyh.png)

Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

Did their shutdowns and lockdowns resemble true closures?  Meaning, nothing was open: Supermarkets were closed,  restaurants were closed, hardware and general stores were closed?  Were people not allowed to go outside for almost any reason, unless they had to get to a hospital?

In the US, our "Stay At Home" and "Shutdown" orders were so loose, that there appeared to be more exceptions than requirements.  Supermarkets experienced larger than normal sales.  Restaurants could do takeout, curbside and delivery.  People were allowed to go out and walk around.

While travel was supposedly restricted, you could basically travel the entire country on interstates and not be bothered. Many other counties are quite small, and can easily restrict travel between countries.  Some countries restricted travel between their states or regions.  The US never truly restricted travel between states, with the exception of a few states that may stop people with out of state tags on local roads.

Anytime anyone complains about our shutdown orders, they immediately bring up their constitutional rights.  The US tends to be a wide open country, and people don't like being told "No".   Heck, many stores and restaurants can't even kick out a group of people at closing in fear of losing their tips, their business, and online negative reviews.  When people don't want to respect closing hours, how are they going to respect the closing of the economy!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 10:40:54 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM

Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.
....
When people don't want to respect closing hours, how are they going to respect the closing of the economy!
Well, SMS permits for leaving the home with start time, limited trip duration, and a limited number of trips per week were implemented in a few places. Supermarket admission tied to last name (along the lines of  "A-K can go on Monday" etc). Impossible to implement in the world of First and Second amendments.

Closing hours matter only that much, its not that virus becomes more active in the dark. Going to a public place is a risk by itself, though - and often avoidable risk..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 10:51:06 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 10:40:54 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM

Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.
....
When people don't want to respect closing hours, how are they going to respect the closing of the economy!
Well, SMS permits for leaving the home with start time, limited trip duration, and a limited number of trips per week were implemented in a few places. Supermarket admission tied to last name (along the lines of  "A-K can go on Monday" etc). Impossible to implement in the world of First and Second amendments.

Closing hours matter only that much, its not that virus becomes more active in the dark. Going to a public place is a risk by itself, though - and often avoidable risk..
Who cares about the constitution people are dying Edit: sounded too harsh but look what happened after 9/11
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 10:55:38 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 10:51:06 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 10:40:54 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM

Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.
....
When people don't want to respect closing hours, how are they going to respect the closing of the economy!
Well, SMS permits for leaving the home with start time, limited trip duration, and a limited number of trips per week were implemented in a few places. Supermarket admission tied to last name (along the lines of  "A-K can go on Monday" etc). Impossible to implement in the world of First and Second amendments.

Closing hours matter only that much, its not that virus becomes more active in the dark. Going to a public place is a risk by itself, though - and often avoidable risk..
Who cares about the constitution people are dying Edit: sounded too harsh but look what happened after 9/11
The flip side of the coin - US is unable to meet new challenges. You know, those nuclear carriers did so much to combat this epidemic.
This sends a certain message to the world. And that message is going to be  much more devastating to economy than some restaurants going out of business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 05, 2020, 10:57:37 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 04, 2020, 09:25:19 PMIdea that minimum clothing set of underwear and a gun now has to be supplemented with the mask may be hard to digest, so I don't expect such approach to work in US.

This is a bit of a tangent, but don't you need a holster as well?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 04, 2020, 07:04:34 PM
If you have a health condition that precludes you from wearing a mask, it's a really bad idea to be going anywhere right now.  You should have a family member or freind be doing your shopping for you or having stuff delivered.

Claustrophobia, panic attacks, and such are what's being discussed here, not any kind of chronic breathing problems that would be exacerbated by the virus. I've never considered myself to be claustrophobic, but my hospital experience a few years ago when they put a temporary dialysis port in my neck was something I don't ever care to repeat. They had me reclined on the bed with my head lower than the rest of my body, with a sheet over my face to create a sterile field. I felt like I was suffocating and nearly went into a full-blown panic attack, and it seemed to take forever. They wouldn't even take the sheet off my nose for just a second to allow me to take a few breaths.

Of course, I have an allergy to heavy-handed government overreach, so that's my medical condition that will preclude my wearing a mask in public.

I haven't been able to get any clarification on this from someone who knows, but anyone who's spent any time on social media has probably seen those claims about stores not being able to stop you from entering without a mask if you say you have a medical condition that precludes it. The general line of this reasoning is that if you have a medical condition, the ADA prohibits stores from denying you entry, and HIPAA regulations mean they cannot ask what your condition is.

Kentucky is under a "wear a mask if you're in public" recommendation starting May 11. The governor has said that no one will be cited, but if law enforcement sees someone without a mask, that person will be asked to put one on. Seems to me that's like wearing a rubber after she's already pregnant. And why is May 11 the date that masks are "required?" Why not immediately?

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 10:51:06 AMWho cares about the constitution people are dying Edit: sounded too harsh but look what happened after 9/11

If our rules and guiding principles aren't equally as applicable in times of crisis as they are in normal times, then they are worthless. Times like these are precisely when they should matter most. Freedom isn't easy. It can be uncomfortable at times. But we're far removed from "give me liberty or give me death," "live free or die," or even "better dead than red." Most of what was done after 9/11 was overreach and there has been some pushback. I'm expecting even more after this. Already, many in Kentucky's legislature are proposing changes to the statute that gives the governor the authority to declare an emergency and issue some of the executive orders he's implemented. And more and more legislators are becoming involved in the reopen protests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 05, 2020, 11:03:56 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

I took a look at how Switzerland responded to their outbreak (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Switzerland ).  Switzerland's first confirmed case was on February 25th.  On February 28th when there was 8 confirmed cases (0.93 cases per million population) the national government banned all events with more than 1,000 participants.  Compare that to the US where the NBA and NHL played their last games on March 11th when there was 1,105 confirmed cases (3.35 cases per million population). 

Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Did their shutdowns and lockdowns resemble true closures?  Meaning, nothing was open: Supermarkets were closed,  restaurants were closed, hardware and general stores were closed?  Were people not allowed to go outside for almost any reason, unless they had to get to a hospital?

Switzerland had similar shut down orders as the US.  On 16 March 2020, the Federal Council announced measures that included the closure of bars, shops and other gathering places.  Essential services such as grocery shops, pharmacies, the postal service, and (reduced) public transport remained open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 05, 2020, 11:13:54 AM
It looks like geography may play a big role in managing the virus.  It appears island nations are having a better time limiting the spread of the virus as they are naturally isolated from the rest of the world and can better track who is coming in/out.  Also, while Switzerland and Austria are completely land locked, they have massive mountain ranges that cuts them off from their neighbors to some degree.  The more isolated a country is geographically maybe the better shot they have at containing and slowing the spread.

To that point the Associated Press just published an article describing how Hawaii and other island nations are tamping down the virus.  According to the article Hawaii has among the lowest COVID-19 infection and mortality rates in the U.S.

Isolated by oceans: Hawaii, other islands tamp down virus
https://apnews.com/158fbfc9ce2145d26940999a4f3bc3c5
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 11:37:57 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 05, 2020, 11:13:54 AM
It looks like geography may play a big role in managing the virus.  It appears island nations are having a better time limiting the spread of the virus as they are naturally isolated from the rest of the world and can better track who is coming in/out.  Also, while Switzerland and Austria are completely land locked, they have massive mountain ranges that cuts them off from their neighbors to some degree.  The more isolated a country is geographically maybe the better shot they have at containing and slowing the spread.

To that point the Associated Press just published an article describing how Hawaii and other island nations are tamping down the virus.  According to the article Hawaii has among the lowest COVID-19 infection and mortality rates in the U.S.

Isolated by oceans: Hawaii, other islands tamp down virus
https://apnews.com/158fbfc9ce2145d26940999a4f3bc3c5

US as a whole had a huge advantage of being isolated from most of the world by oceans with most traffic funneled through a few entry points. Yet CDC worked hard to lose that advantage.
This is much better than "mountains cutting off" - but people still travelling from Villbach to Venecia on day trips
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 12:15:07 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM

Of course, I have an allergy to heavy-handed government overreach, so that's my medical condition that will preclude my wearing a mask in public.



It would be logically much easier to simply say you're selfish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 10:51:06 AM
Who cares about the constitution people are dying

I do.  People die every day, from all sorts of things.  Epidemics happen every so often.  That doesn't mean I stop caring about liberty.

What about the people who died in order to establish those freedoms?  Do you care about them, or only the ones who are dying now?

Quote from: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
If our rules and guiding principles aren't equally as applicable in times of crisis as they are in normal times, then they are worthless. Times like these are precisely when they should matter most. Freedom isn't easy. It can be uncomfortable at times.

Exactly.  The rights and freedoms we are guaranteed exist for precisely those times during which they might reasonably be taken away.  As an example, imagine if the Second Amendment could be repealed any time the government were worried people might take up arms against it.  That would completely negate the purpose of having the Amendment in the first place!  It's the same with the First Amendment:  "the right of the people peaceably to assemble" is most important during times of crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 10:51:06 AM
Who cares about the constitution people are dying

I do.  People die every day, from all sorts of things.  Epidemics happen every so often.  That doesn't mean I stop caring about liberty.

What about the people who died in order to establish those freedoms?  Do you care about them, or only the ones who are dying now?

Quote from: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
If our rules and guiding principles aren't equally as applicable in times of crisis as they are in normal times, then they are worthless. Times like these are precisely when they should matter most. Freedom isn't easy. It can be uncomfortable at times.

Exactly.  The rights and freedoms we are guaranteed exist for precisely those times during which they might reasonably be taken away.  As an example, imagine if the Second Amendment could be repealed any time the government were worried people might take up arms against it.  That would completely negate the purpose of having the Amendment in the first place!  It's the same with the First Amendment:  "the right of the people peaceably to assemble" is most important during times of crisis.
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 05, 2020, 01:13:54 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
Kentucky is under a "wear a mask if you're in public" recommendation starting May 11. The governor has said that no one will be cited, but if law enforcement sees someone without a mask, that person will be asked to put one on. Seems to me that's like wearing a rubber after she's already pregnant. And why is May 11 the date that masks are "required?" Why not immediately?

I think it only applies in indoor businesses or similar buildings. Who's going to wear a mask outdoors?

I was able to get a bandana, but it's not for outdoor use.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time.
2-3 million deaths in US are feasible as worst case scenario
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time.
2-3 million deaths in US are feasible as worst case scenario

Who's actually saying that currently though?  The CDC came out with something that projected high deaths which a lot of media outlets are running with.  If I recall correctly the number most sources who are reported about what the CDC said cite a "possible"  3,000 deaths per day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 05, 2020, 01:30:54 PM
In mid-March, Imperial College put out a study that said something like 1.8 million deaths in the U.S. alone. This study was ripped to shreds by peer reviews, but still was cited as an excuse for all the lockdowns.

It wasn't going to be 1.8 million. It cannot, and it won't be. That is, unless you try very hard to make it that high. I know it won't get that high, because most of our public officials are incapable of trying very hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time.
2-3 million deaths in US are feasible as worst case scenario

Who's actually saying that currently though?  The CDC came out with something that projected high deaths which a lot of media outlets are running with.  If I recall correctly the number most sources who are reported about what the CDC said cite a "possible"  3,000 deaths per day.
simple arithmetic. Uncontained epidemics - and seems we're heading that way - would take down 1% of population. Which is about 3 million.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:33:15 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 05, 2020, 01:30:54 PM
In mid-March, Imperial College put out a study that said something like 1.8 million deaths in the U.S. alone. This study was ripped to shreds by peer reviews, but still was cited as an excuse for all the lockdowns.

It wasn't going to be 1.8 million. It cannot, and it won't be. That is, unless you try very hard to make it that high. I know it won't get that high, because most of our public officials are incapable of trying very hard.
Oh they do. CDC did their best to get things out of control.
And I would trust imperial college numbers. They do have a clue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:45:13 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time.
2-3 million deaths in US are feasible as worst case scenario

Who's actually saying that currently though?  The CDC came out with something that projected high deaths which a lot of media outlets are running with.  If I recall correctly the number most sources who are reported about what the CDC said cite a "possible"  3,000 deaths per day.
simple arithmetic. Uncontained epidemics - and seems we're heading that way - would take down 1% of population. Which is about 3 million.

Where are you pulling 1% from?  Most sources (numerous found in the proceeding pages) are citing below a 1% mortality rate for cases contracted at this point. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:48:21 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:45:13 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time.
2-3 million deaths in US are feasible as worst case scenario

Who's actually saying that currently though?  The CDC came out with something that projected high deaths which a lot of media outlets are running with.  If I recall correctly the number most sources who are reported about what the CDC said cite a "possible"  3,000 deaths per day.
simple arithmetic. Uncontained epidemics - and seems we're heading that way - would take down 1% of population. Which is about 3 million.

Where are you pulling 1% from?  Most sources (numerous found in the proceeding pages) are citing below a 1% mortality rate for cases contracted at this point.
That is with available medical help. Once no oxygen is available, things will go much grimmer pretty quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:51:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:48:21 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:45:13 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time.
2-3 million deaths in US are feasible as worst case scenario

Who's actually saying that currently though?  The CDC came out with something that projected high deaths which a lot of media outlets are running with.  If I recall correctly the number most sources who are reported about what the CDC said cite a "possible"  3,000 deaths per day.
simple arithmetic. Uncontained epidemics - and seems we're heading that way - would take down 1% of population. Which is about 3 million.

Where are you pulling 1% from?  Most sources (numerous found in the proceeding pages) are citing below a 1% mortality rate for cases contracted at this point.
That is with available medical help. Once no oxygen is available, things will go much grimmer pretty quickly.

Is there some sort of evidence for reserve medical oxygen supply being in peril? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:58:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:51:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:48:21 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:45:13 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 01:19:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 01:12:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 01:08:32 PM
Hey, I do care about the constitution. I'm just saying that we can't be super strict about things when thousands upon millions could die. This isn't just the flu.

What good is the Constitution if not strictly applied in times of strife?  That's the point.

I don't think even the worst and doomsday oriented State Side projections anyone is saying "millions."   Ergo, people have made similar arguments about World War II when numerous constitutional right were waived.  A lot of people retroactively look back at some of those actions not so favorably and they weren't exactly universally praised at the time.
2-3 million deaths in US are feasible as worst case scenario

Who's actually saying that currently though?  The CDC came out with something that projected high deaths which a lot of media outlets are running with.  If I recall correctly the number most sources who are reported about what the CDC said cite a "possible"  3,000 deaths per day.
simple arithmetic. Uncontained epidemics - and seems we're heading that way - would take down 1% of population. Which is about 3 million.

Where are you pulling 1% from?  Most sources (numerous found in the proceeding pages) are citing below a 1% mortality rate for cases contracted at this point.
That is with available medical help. Once no oxygen is available, things will go much grimmer pretty quickly.

Is there some sort of evidence for reserve medical oxygen supply being in peril?
Oxygen is not the issue - at least as long as those cryogenic companies are running. Mask for supplying it to a patient, nurse to turn the valve on, access to the tap can easily be the limiting factors.  Home concentrators are available, but my understanding those are few and not sure they are stocked. We'll need millions, if not tens millions access point easily..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 01:59:41 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
Of course, I have an allergy to heavy-handed government overreach, so that's my medical condition that will preclude my wearing a mask in public.

If that's the excuse you give to the cops when you're driving 80 mph in a 25 mph residential zone while snorting crack cocaine off a naked hooker in a convertible, then maybe that's reasonable.  But if you're just have opinions about it, then that's not an illness, and it takes away from those that do have true issues.

If your employer has said that you can work from home, have you protested saying that the government is overreaching and you demand to go into the office every day?

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:09:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 10:51:06 AM
Who cares about the constitution people are dying

I do.  People die every day, from all sorts of things.  Epidemics happen every so often.  That doesn't mean I stop caring about liberty.

What about the people who died in order to establish those freedoms?  Do you care about them, or only the ones who are dying now?

But, do you care only about liberty?

And specifically only individual liberty?

This pandemic is a tricky thing.  The impact to this illness to an individual person, in most cases, is a lot less severe than the impact to the community at large.

So in the case of the lockdowns, or mask requirements, there is a push to put the needs of the community ahead of the needs of an individual.  You may not agree with this, but the logic isn't necessarily wrong.

And societies balance the needs of individuals with the needs of the community all the time.

A drunk driver may need to get home, but the cost to society is very great if that drunk driver gets behind the wheel and kills an innocent road user.  So, our society made it illegal to drive drunk.  Our society placed the community need ahead of the individual need and made drunk driving illegal.  That drunk probably still needs to get home.

I tire of people complaining about how the coronavirus has impacted their rights -- the coronavirus isn't some foreign power taxing tea -- no matter which option society takes there is going to be a bitter pill to swallow.

Less lockdowns > more sickness and death.  More lockdowns < less sickness and death.

If individuals in society don't alter their behaviour more people will get sick and die.  If individuals in society alter their behaviour, less people will get sick and die.  You don't have to like it, or agree with it, but at least acknowledge and appreciate that no matter which path forward society takes in tackling this pandemic their is some kind of negative externality associated with that choice.

The needs of the many vs. the needs of the few.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 02:09:39 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 01:59:41 PM
If that's the excuse you give to the cops when you're driving 80 mph in a 25 mph residential zone while snorting crack cocaine off a naked hooker in a convertible

(https://i.gifer.com/5YSR.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 02:15:50 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:09:34 PM
A drunk driver may need to get home, but the cost to society is very great if that drunk driver gets behind the wheel and kills an innocent road user.  So, our society made it illegal to drive drunk.  Our society placed the community need ahead of the individual need and made drunk driving illegal.  That drunk probably still needs to get home.

The drunk driver committed a crime by driving drunk.  It's illegal to drive drunk because doing so imminently risks the safety of others.

That's not the same thing as imposing restrictions on every citizen.  If you don't have the virus, haven't even been tested for it, then your liberties should not be impinged upon.  That would be like disallowing everyone from driving, whether they're drunk or not.

Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:09:34 PM
If individuals in society don't alter their behaviour more people will get sick and die.  If individuals in society alter their behaviour, less people will get sick and die.

This is true.  It's also true during every other epidemic.  That doesn't change my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 02:15:50 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:09:34 PM
A drunk driver may need to get home, but the cost to society is very great if that drunk driver gets behind the wheel and kills an innocent road user.  So, our society made it illegal to drive drunk.  Our society placed the community need ahead of the individual need and made drunk driving illegal.  That drunk probably still needs to get home.

The drunk driver committed a crime by driving drunk.  It's illegal to drive drunk because doing so imminently risks the safety of others.

That's not the same thing as imposing restrictions on every citizen.  If you don't have the virus, haven't even been tested for it, then your liberties should not be impinged upon.  That would be like disallowing everyone from driving, whether they're drunk or not.

Studies indicate that the virus is transmitted before people become symptomatic.  So your approach probably doesn't mitigate transmission much.

And if you think that drunk driving should be illegal, then at least in principal, you agree that there are situations where governments should be able to regulate individual behaviour to achieve a greater societal benefit.

In this case, it seems that you have drawn your arbitrary line in the sand of how much society should be able to curtail individual rights in a different location than those you are arguing against.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 02:40:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 02:15:50 PM
The drunk driver committed a crime by driving drunk.  It's illegal to drive drunk because doing so imminently risks the safety of others.

What's the definition of driving drunk?  It's up to the whim of the government to determine what is "drunk".  49 States say it's a BAC of .08.  1 says it's .05.  Unless you have a CDL, when it's .04.

Sounds like government overreach and we should eliminate the definition of a drunk driver, just like we should eliminate masks and closures based on the whim of the government due to COVID-19.  After all, more people have died this year from COVID-19 than from all forms of deaths due to traffic offenses last year.

The inherent risks of getting Covid-19 is why we have the measures in place that we have now, just like the BAC levels we have to determine who is a drunk driver.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 02:44:19 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
Studies indicate that the virus is transmitted before people become symptomatic.  So your approach probably doesn't mitigate transmission much.

Quite possibly true.  But again, that's true of any virus that's transmissible before symptoms present.  That doesn't mean I agree our rights should be impinged.

Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
And if you think that drunk driving should be illegal, then at least in principal, you agree that there are situations where governments should be able to regulate individual behaviour to achieve a greater societal benefit.

No:  it means that, in principle, I agree there are situations where governments should be able to regulate individual behavior to avoid impinging upon another individual's safety.  In my opinion, legislation enacted with the goal of "societal benefit" should be very, very limited.




Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 02:40:52 PM
What's the definition of driving drunk?  It's up to the whim of the government to determine what is "drunk".  49 States say it's a BAC of .08.  1 says it's .05.  Unless you have a CDL, when it's .04.

Sounds like government overreach and we should eliminate the definition of a drunk driver,

That's a ridiculous argument.  Not being able to agree on the specifics is no reason to discount the principle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 05, 2020, 03:13:07 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:09:34 PM
But, do you care only about liberty?

And specifically only individual liberty?

This pandemic is a tricky thing.  The impact to this illness to an individual person, in most cases, is a lot less severe than the impact to the community at large.

So in the case of the lockdowns, or mask requirements, there is a push to put the needs of the community ahead of the needs of an individual.  You may not agree with this, but the logic isn't necessarily wrong.

And societies balance the needs of individuals with the needs of the community all the time.

A drunk driver may need to get home, but the cost to society is very great if that drunk driver gets behind the wheel and kills an innocent road user.  So, our society made it illegal to drive drunk.  Our society placed the community need ahead of the individual need and made drunk driving illegal.  That drunk probably still needs to get home.

I tire of people complaining about how the coronavirus has impacted their rights -- the coronavirus isn't some foreign power taxing tea -- no matter which option society takes there is going to be a bitter pill to swallow.

Less lockdowns > more sickness and death.  More lockdowns < less sickness and death.

If individuals in society don't alter their behaviour more people will get sick and die.  If individuals in society alter their behaviour, less people will get sick and die.  You don't have to like it, or agree with it, but at least acknowledge and appreciate that no matter which path forward society takes in tackling this pandemic their is some kind of negative externality associated with that choice.

The needs of the many vs. the needs of the few.

Yes, yes 100%.  Yes the curve has been flattened for now, but we still don't have a vaccine and still don't have widespread testing.  Literally anybody could be infected with this virus and not know it, and above all other liberties is the right to life and health, and the only way to ensure that is to continue to keep people away from each other as much as possible. 

It's absolutely true that if businesses open up that nobody is forcing people to patronize them, but businesses opening up forces people to show up for work or lose their jobs, thus forcing them to choose between their jobs or their lives, because other people think their right to get out and about is more important. 

It's also true that if businesses open up, hospital workers and first responders get increased exposure to the inevitable surge in cases.  Their rights to health and safety are apparently less important than people's rights to enjoy themselves.

Finally, if you want to blame someone for the lockdowns going on to long, the only one to blame is the person who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, NW.  His response to this is why we don't currently have enough testing available to safely end the lockdowns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 05, 2020, 03:18:40 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 05, 2020, 01:13:54 PM
I think it only applies in indoor businesses or similar buildings. Who's going to wear a mask outdoors?

I was able to get a bandana, but it's not for outdoor use.

I saw a lot of people wearing masks outdoors, just today while doing my shopping.

It's really unnecessary, but no big deal if you're wearing a washable mask. The masks I use are non-washable, so I stretch out my supply by using them only indoors. I also have a washable mask, but it's less comfortable so I'm saving that until I run out of the non-washable masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:19:01 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:13:07 PM
above all other liberties is the right to life and health

That's not what the right to life means.  It doesn't mean that the government is allowed to remove the freedoms of everyone else in order to ensure you stay alive.  It means that the government doesn't get to kill you (with the obvious exceptions).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 03:19:36 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
Exactly.  The rights and freedoms we are guaranteed exist for precisely those times during which they might reasonably be taken away.  As an example, imagine if the Second Amendment could be repealed any time the government were worried people might take up arms against it.  That would completely negate the purpose of having the Amendment in the first place!  It's the same with the First Amendment:  "the right of the people peaceably to assemble" is most important during times of crisis.


But no right is absolute.  The right of assembly has been shaped by courts over the years and allows for reasonable restrictions based on a compelling government interest. 

Under this standard, a government highly suggeting, or even mandating, that people wear a mask during a pandemic clearly isn't unconstitutional.  It really isn't even close. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 05, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
There are two types of freedoms - the right to do something, and the right to be protected from the negative consequences of someone else doing something.  Which you consider more important (and to what extent) determines how you feel about the lockdowns (and a host of other issues).

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 02:44:19 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
Studies indicate that the virus is transmitted before people become symptomatic.  So your approach probably doesn't mitigate transmission much.

Quite possibly true.  But again, that's true of any virus that's transmissible before symptoms present.  That doesn't mean I agree our rights should be impinged.
It's not just "quite possibly true".  It's most definitely true!  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if MOST people spreading the virus don't have symptoms!

It's also worth noting that coronavirus is more severe than most other diseases that we deal with.  If you go to the hospital for the flu, you're there a few days.  If you get a severe case of coronavirus and have to go to the hospital, you're going to be in the ICU for WEEKS.  Our hospitals were not built to handle this.  They are built to rapidly turn over patients with little to no spare capacity.  Combine this with the far greater severity for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, and the extreme ease of spreading coronavirus, is why it tends to max out hospital capacity if allowed to spread without restrictions like social distancing and lockdowns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:32:47 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 03:19:36 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
Exactly.  The rights and freedoms we are guaranteed exist for precisely those times during which they might reasonably be taken away.  As an example, imagine if the Second Amendment could be repealed any time the government were worried people might take up arms against it.  That would completely negate the purpose of having the Amendment in the first place!  It's the same with the First Amendment:  "the right of the people peaceably to assemble" is most important during times of crisis.

But no right is absolute.  The right of assembly has been shaped by courts over the years and allows for reasonable restrictions based on a compelling government interest. 

Under this standard, a government highly suggeting, or even mandating, that people wear a mask during a pandemic clearly isn't unconstitutional.  It really isn't even close. 

This, sir, is the reasonable argument, and it's not the first time I've seen it on here.  It also makes me woefully aware that I know too little about what restrictions are and are not allowed to be enacted during a disaster.  It also makes me wonder about the timeline:  should the government be able to issue temporary order after temporary order after temporary order?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 05, 2020, 03:37:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:32:47 PM
It also makes me wonder about the timeline:  should the government be able to issue temporary order after temporary order after temporary order?

I see no difference between that and "until further notice".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:19:01 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:13:07 PM
above all other liberties is the right to life and health

That's not what the right to life means.  It doesn't mean that the government is allowed to remove the freedoms of everyone else in order to ensure you stay alive.  It means that the government doesn't get to kill you (with the obvious exceptions).

If the government lifts stay at home orders and that causes people to die, then in a way the government is killing them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:13 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 05, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
It's also worth noting that coronavirus is more severe than most other diseases that we deal with.  If you go to the hospital for the flu, you're there a few days.  If you get a severe case of coronavirus and have to go to the hospital, you're going to be in the ICU for WEEKS.  Our hospitals were not built to handle this.  They are built to rapidly turn over patients with little to no spare capacity.  Combine this with the far greater severity for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, and the extreme ease of spreading coronavirus, is why it tends to max out hospital capacity if allowed to spread without restrictions like social distancing and lockdowns.

I'm very aware of that.  Our good friends' cousin up in Iowa got the virus several weeks ago, and he almost died.  He got fluid in his lungs and, AIUI, he had to be kept prone on a vibrating bed in order to prevent him suffocating to death.  He still cannot speak due to damage done to his respiratory system.  I think he might still be in the hospital, but I'm not sure of that.

Quote from: 1 on May 05, 2020, 03:37:05 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:32:47 PM
It also makes me wonder about the timeline:  should the government be able to issue temporary order after temporary order after temporary order?

I see no difference between that and "until further notice".

Exactly.  And I don't believe the government should be allowed to remove our liberties "until further notice" period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:52 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
If the government lifts stay at home orders and that causes people to die, then in a way the government is killing them.

Nope.  No more than, if they raise the speed limit and more people die in car crashes, the government killed them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 03:46:18 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:32:47 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 03:19:36 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
Exactly.  The rights and freedoms we are guaranteed exist for precisely those times during which they might reasonably be taken away.  As an example, imagine if the Second Amendment could be repealed any time the government were worried people might take up arms against it.  That would completely negate the purpose of having the Amendment in the first place!  It's the same with the First Amendment:  "the right of the people peaceably to assemble" is most important during times of crisis.

But no right is absolute.  The right of assembly has been shaped by courts over the years and allows for reasonable restrictions based on a compelling government interest. 

Under this standard, a government highly suggeting, or even mandating, that people wear a mask during a pandemic clearly isn't unconstitutional.  It really isn't even close. 

This, sir, is the reasonable argument, and it's not the first time I've seen it on here.  It also makes me woefully aware that I know too little about what restrictions are and are not allowed to be enacted during a disaster.  It also makes me wonder about the timeline:  should the government be able to issue temporary order after temporary order after temporary order?


Cornell Law School has an excellent site on Constitutional Law and Civil Liberties.  Here is what they say on Freedom of Assembly.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-1/rights-of-assembly-and-petition
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 05, 2020, 03:52:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:32:47 PMThis, sir, is the reasonable argument, and it's not the first time I've seen it on here.  It also makes me woefully aware that I know too little about what restrictions are and are not allowed to be enacted during a disaster.  It also makes me wonder about the timeline:  should the government be able to issue temporary order after temporary order after temporary order?

I suggest a look at the Kansas Emergency Management Act, which sets limits on the length of time the governor can declare a state of emergency without obtaining legislative buy-in.  I suspect most if not all states have similar limits in their emergency management statutes, though the specifics will vary from state to state.

As a general rule, I would not expect attempts to evade these limitations by chaining together discretionary exercises of state power to survive constitutional analysis by the courts.  A substantive argument as to necessity has to be made, and quite significant limitations on rights can survive strict scrutiny (e.g., incitement is not protected by the First Amendment, with criminally facilitative speech--such as instructions on how to make a bomb--being where precedent starts to become nuanced).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 05, 2020, 03:55:06 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:52 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
If the government lifts stay at home orders and that causes people to die, then in a way the government is killing them.

Nope.  No more than, if they raise the speed limit and more people die in car crashes, the government killed them.

If speed limits were raised to the point that they caused a significant increase in car crash deaths, then yes, that would be irresponsible government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:59:05 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:55:06 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:52 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
If the government lifts stay at home orders and that causes people to die, then in a way the government is killing them.

Nope.  No more than, if they raise the speed limit and more people die in car crashes, the government killed them.

If speed limits were raised to the point that they caused a significant increase in car crash deaths, then yes, that would be irresponsible government.

Ah, so if the increase is "significant", then the government killed people, but if it isn't "significant" enough, then it didn't?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 04:02:13 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 05, 2020, 03:52:29 PM
incitement is not protected by the First Amendment, with criminally facilitative speech--such as instructions on how to make a bomb--being where precedent starts to become nuanced

Ah, yes, I once hitchhiked a ride from a couple who had obtained a copy of Steal This Book and couldn't rave about it enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 05, 2020, 04:38:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:59:05 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:55:06 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:52 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
If the government lifts stay at home orders and that causes people to die, then in a way the government is killing them.

Nope.  No more than, if they raise the speed limit and more people die in car crashes, the government killed them.

If speed limits were raised to the point that they caused a significant increase in car crash deaths, then yes, that would be irresponsible government.

Ah, so if the increase is "significant", then the government killed people, but if it isn't "significant" enough, then it didn't?

Significant in the statistical sense.  A 2% increase isn't an insignificant number of deaths, but statistically insignificant as to determining causation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 05:36:31 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 05, 2020, 03:52:29 PM
I suggest a look at the Kansas Emergency Management Act, which sets limits on the length of time the governor can declare a state of emergency without obtaining legislative buy-in. 

Chapter 48, Article 9?
Goodness, which section?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:15:46 PM
Quote from: MikieTimT on May 04, 2020, 12:25:45 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 04, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

That's the part of all this that not enough people are considering. Suicides and murders will increase due to the mental stress of isolation and more free time to stew about things out of our control. There are women and children that may now be trapped in abusive situations that increase the time around the abusers. So, in essence, we are trading the lives of the ones with compromised immunities for those with compromised mental or living situations. Which are more valuable to society? Who can say? There are no easy or right answers, but I don't think enough have asked the questions.

Do we have any evidence to believe that this is anything close to resembling a 1:1 trade? If we save, say, 500 patients from the covid for every 1 that dies of mental health issues, I think most people would agree that it would be worth it. But I haven't seen any numbers on how many excess mental-health-related deaths have occurred during the pandemic. Not to mention that theoretically, if our mental health system was up to snuff, it would be a more balanced use of resources to reduce the number of infectious-disease staff needed and shift some of the load onto mental health professionals.

Of course, the underlying problem here is that the US mental health system is far, far below the standard of most Western countries. We tend to take care of the mentally unwell by throwing them in jail, or in a facility that is marketed for mental health treatment but is still basically a jail.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:32:47 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 03:19:36 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
Exactly.  The rights and freedoms we are guaranteed exist for precisely those times during which they might reasonably be taken away.  As an example, imagine if the Second Amendment could be repealed any time the government were worried people might take up arms against it.  That would completely negate the purpose of having the Amendment in the first place!  It's the same with the First Amendment:  "the right of the people peaceably to assemble" is most important during times of crisis.

But no right is absolute.  The right of assembly has been shaped by courts over the years and allows for reasonable restrictions based on a compelling government interest. 

Under this standard, a government highly suggeting, or even mandating, that people wear a mask during a pandemic clearly isn't unconstitutional.  It really isn't even close. 

This, sir, is the reasonable argument, and it's not the first time I've seen it on here. 

Fire marshal codes are allowed to limit gatherings of more than a certain number within a building due to safety reasons.

How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 05, 2020, 06:51:17 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

The WalMart I went to this afternoon had a temporary reduced occupancy limit (higher than 10, given the size of the store), and a long line of people waiting outside for previous customers to leave. (Too bad it was out of stock for what I wanted, so my wait was mostly futile.) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 06:55:06 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?
Problem is, I suspect, is what we grew up with. It is fairly natural, starting from pre-school, that room capacity is limited. Fy fire code, by square footage, by air volume and what not. Same for, e.g., bus capacity, plane weight etc. Even Times Square or big sports arena have their capacity numbers. 
Now there is a new limitation reducing those numbers - and it is no longer natural, but a heavy-handed regulation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on May 05, 2020, 06:55:47 PM
And now everything's opening up while we're still climbing in places (Iowa - now above 10K after passing WI and IL - which is now catching up with Joisey.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 05, 2020, 07:00:25 PM
The governor of NC has announced a modified stay-at-home order, as well as details regarding the transition to Phase 1 of easing restrictions.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-modified-stay-home-order-and-transition-phase-1-easing-restrictions (https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-modified-stay-home-order-and-transition-phase-1-easing-restrictions)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.
"sooner" doesn't make a difference. Question is how to reduce transmission rate and quench the spread - and this is something US fails at while other countries can manage the task.
US as a whole still has 1.0 spread factor after a month of shutdown - and most states are above 0.8, meaning little wiggle room for opening up from current restrictions. We have people On this forum pretty much defying masks requirements. The THing I like most - there are photos of police in CA without masks... Well, good luck arresting the spread, officers. You cannot handcuff this virus, you know...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:12:56 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
We have people On this forum pretty much defying masks requirements.

I hope that wasn't aimed at me, because I don't live under a single mask requirement, nor have I even entered a building that had one.  The only time I've worn a mask was to try it on after my wife made them like a month and a half ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 07:13:39 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 05, 2020, 06:55:47 PM
And now everything's opening up while we're still climbing in places (Iowa - now above 10K after passing WI and IL - which is now catching up with Joisey.)
I think we have to start sort of opening up. The goal of quarantine was to slow the spread, not get rid of corona). Some states are opening up to fast though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:19:23 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 05, 2020, 06:51:17 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

A few key differences:

(1)  In those situations, the government wouldn't be telling you (or anyone else) that you can't go in the building.  You would be perfectly free to go there, just not when there are more than a certain number of other people there.  And, once inside, you'd be perfectly free to associate with the other people there.  In the situation we have now, there are jurisdictions telling every citizen they're flat-out not allowed to go somewhere.

(2)  Fire marshal codes exist because, if more people than that limit are in the property at once, then it has been determined to cause imminent danger to the others in case of a fire–by virtue of the very number of people on the premises.  That's not the same thing as saying that you are by your very existence an imminent danger to another person without even having been determined to be carrying the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:20:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:12:56 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
We have people On this forum pretty much defying masks requirements.

I hope that wasn't aimed at me, because I don't live under a single mask requirement, nor have I even entered a building that had one.  The only time I've worn a mask was to try it on after my wife made them like a month and a half ago.
Meanwhile, KS is above 1.0 spreading factor. Good luck, mask orders may not apply, but Darwin theory does-  regardless of your opinion about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 07:21:27 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:19:23 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 05, 2020, 06:51:17 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

A few key differences:

(1)  In those situations, the government wouldn't be telling you (or anyone else) that you can't go in the building.  You would be perfectly free to go there, just not when there are more than a certain number of other people there.  And, once inside, you'd be perfectly free to associate with the other people there.  In the situation we have now, there are jurisdictions telling every citizen they're flat-out not allowed to go somewhere.

(2)  Fire marshal codes exist because, if more people than that limit are in the property at once, then it has been determined to cause imminent danger to the others in case of a fire–by virtue of the very number of people on the premises.  That's not the same thing as saying that you are by your very existence an imminent danger to another person without even having been determined to be carrying the virus.
Until we have a way to test everyone, you never know if you have the virus or not. And this thing can spread like wildfire. You could be asymptomatic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 05, 2020, 07:29:59 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:20:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:12:56 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
We have people On this forum pretty much defying masks requirements.

I hope that wasn't aimed at me, because I don't live under a single mask requirement, nor have I even entered a building that had one.  The only time I've worn a mask was to try it on after my wife made them like a month and a half ago.
Meanwhile, KS is above 1.0 spreading factor. Good luck, mask orders may not apply, but Darwin theory does-  regardless of your opinion about it.

Surprisingly, despite many of the states in this area being "never lockdown" states, that can't be the only cause – Minnesota, which was previously doing really well, is just like the nearby states in doing poorly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 08:20:35 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:19:23 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 05, 2020, 06:51:17 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

A few key differences:

(1)  In those situations, the government wouldn't be telling you (or anyone else) that you can't go in the building.  You would be perfectly free to go there, just not when there are more than a certain number of other people there.  And, once inside, you'd be perfectly free to associate with the other people there.  In the situation we have now, there are jurisdictions telling every citizen they're flat-out not allowed to go somewhere.

(2)  Fire marshal codes exist because, if more people than that limit are in the property at once, then it has been determined to cause imminent danger to the others in case of a fire–by virtue of the very number of people on the premises.  That's not the same thing as saying that you are by your very existence an imminent danger to another person without even having been determined to be carrying the virus.


You're really just splitting hairs here.  The fact is that the government at times has a compelling interest to restrict assembly in a reasonable manner.  The questions then are "is the interest compelling?" And "is the restriction reasonable?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 05, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.


China lied about the virus, which is big part of why the US reacted slowly.  Even with the bad info from China, the US should have immediately gone into lockdown mode once we knew how bad it was and utilized the Defense Production Act to mass produce as many test kits a day as possible until we had a billion of them.  Literally every factory that could possibly make them should have been making them.  I'm not certain a different administration would have reacted a lot better, but they couldn't have done worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on May 05, 2020, 08:35:58 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on May 04, 2020, 11:39:22 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 04, 2020, 10:45:51 AM
Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

Umm...no. There is nothing...NOTHING in the media here in Indianapolis actively promoting people to head out for tourist reasons.

Perhaps they are airing on the Cincinnati stations.  Cincinnati is fairly close to Indiana.  Per his profile, bandit957 lives in Bellevue, KY which is across from Cincy.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
The National Park Service is moving forward with phases reopenings:

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/us-national-parks-reopen-week-124213381.html

Looks like Bryce Canyon is the place to be short term. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 05, 2020, 08:52:40 PM
Does anyone here know the effect supermarkets are having on the coronavirus spread?

From what I've seen, no grocery stores are shutting down due to coronavirus spread among its workers, but meat processing plants are? I'd think coronavirus would spread more quickly in grocery stores than in meat processing centers or churches or parks. I'd think the workers who've interacted with the most people since coronavirus came here would probably be grocery store workers.

If the government is so intent on reducing coronavirus transmission, then why did they not tell grocery stores to use curbside pickup or delivery only instead of potential contamination in the stores, since grocery stores were literally one of the only public places that were open in full a couple weeks ago? Seems fishy to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 08:55:53 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
The National Park Service is moving forward with phases reopenings:

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/us-national-parks-reopen-week-124213381.html

Looks like Bryce Canyon is the place to be short term.
Hopefully GSMNP opens up. I was thinking of going there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 05, 2020, 09:15:07 PM
A security guard at a Family Dollar in Flint, MI was shot and killed for telling a customer to wear a mask.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/michigan-security-guard-mask-killing-trnd/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/michigan-security-guard-mask-killing-trnd/index.html)

This is insane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 05, 2020, 09:23:11 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 05, 2020, 08:52:40 PM
If the government is so intent on reducing coronavirus transmission, then why did they not tell grocery stores to use curbside pickup or delivery only instead of potential contamination in the stores, since grocery stores were literally one of the only public places that were open in full a couple weeks ago? Seems fishy to me.

Delivery services are overloaded in my area.

As for curbside pickup, that requires customers to know exactly what they want, that it's in stock, etc., sight unseen (especially for produce, you might not trust store workers to pick out the items for your order, either for delivery or curbside). Then a lot of store labor to assemble the orders and bring them out to the curb. I know some Wal-Marts offer curbside pickup, but it'd probably be a real PITA if everybody had to use it.

Keep in mind that some of the people who need to shop for food aren't tech-savvy, or even have computers or cellphones. Also, sometimes you need something immediately, such as if your family is preparing a dish and finds it's missing an ingredient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 09:28:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 05, 2020, 08:55:53 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
The National Park Service is moving forward with phases reopenings:

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/us-national-parks-reopen-week-124213381.html

Looks like Bryce Canyon is the place to be short term.
Hopefully GSMNP opens up. I was thinking of going there.

I got two visits to Yosemite in during the winter and one at Pinnacles before all this crap started.  I would be really happy to see Sequoia/Kings Canyon reopen since it's an hour from my house.  Yosemite will get a lot of interest given it is far more well known.  I just want to get on some back trails and GTFO out this city.  Running 20 extra miles a week on increasingly busy streets is wearing thin in the tooth, "Safer on Trail"  I say. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 09:31:33 PM
City of Clovis voted to reopen:

https://www.clovisroundup.com/city-council-votes-5-0-to-reopen-city-will-not-enforce-shelter-in-place-order/

Apparently Clovis is taking a hands off approach to the Governor's order akin to Modoc County.  The City of Fresno is allowing most retail and certain other businesses to reopen this week but has a standing order to May 31st.  The City Council of Clovis had some interesting things to say about one-size fits all orders not working for smaller communities...kind of a common snarky shot around these parts. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 05, 2020, 09:42:47 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 05, 2020, 08:52:40 PM
Does anyone here know the effect supermarkets are having on the coronavirus spread?

From what I've seen, no grocery stores are shutting down due to coronavirus spread among its workers, but meat processing plants are? I'd think coronavirus would spread more quickly in grocery stores than in meat processing centers or churches or parks. I'd think the workers who've interacted with the most people since coronavirus came here would probably be grocery store workers.

If the government is so intent on reducing coronavirus transmission, then why did they not tell grocery stores to use curbside pickup or delivery only instead of potential contamination in the stores, since grocery stores were literally one of the only public places that were open in full a couple weeks ago? Seems fishy to me.
Around here, grocery stores are taking actions to limit the spread.  One-way aisles, mandated social distancing in checkout line, etc.  Plus it's not just a binary fact that you're near a person, length and intensity of contact matter.  When you're in line at the grocery store, you're standing six feet apart, and you're only there a few minutes at most (I've been using the self-checkouts, so no wait).  People in meat packing plants, in contrast, stand shoulder to shoulder with other people for hours on end.

There's also the political element to this.  Most people won't notice if their meat comes from a different plant.  They will notice if they can't go in to the store and get groceries.  I for one would be absolutely livid if I couldn't go into the store and do my shopping myself, ESPECIALLY with these shortages.  If there's something that's out that day, then I need to either go to additional stores or get an approved alternate product (sometimes both, and sometimes even the approved alternates are out too, leaving me to scramble to figure out something workable).  I would not want someone else to be handling that process for me.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.

The same is true for other countries.  They managed.  We didn't - because we had a federal government that  dragged its feet, rather than quickly reacting when the first intelligence reports showed China was lying.  It doesn't help that certain officials wanted to keep our official case counts low at all costs (remember the cruise ship we almost didn't let dock because "it would make the numbers look bad"?).  Also because we insisted on having the CDC develop its own test instead of accepting the WHO test like everyone else did.

We also dragged out feet with the travel bans.  Our ban for China had a ton of holes, and we went WAY too long before extending it to Europe, and as a result, New York became a hot spot.  We should have shut down travel with the entire EU the moment community spread was detected in Italy.  The moment we knew that the disease could spread without a fever, we should have closed our borders completely to non-citizens who had been in (not just coming from) countries with any community spread in the last two weeks and subjected returning citizens from those countries to a mandatory quarantine on a military base.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 05, 2020, 10:05:28 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on May 05, 2020, 02:09:34 PM
I tire of people complaining about how the coronavirus has impacted their rights -- the coronavirus isn't some foreign power taxing tea -- no matter which option society takes there is going to be a bitter pill to swallow.

Could not agree more. It's a time for listening, learning, and reflecting. Rebelling, protesting, bringing up the Constitution as if it has been violated, etc., etc., seems to me to be petty, foolish, and impractical. It should be clear by now that the goal is to end this thing as soon as possible without costing too many lives, and criticize all you want, but I think everything that our government (and really, most Western governments) has done has been done quite pointedly to that end.

This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government. I'm not saying it's entirely unwarranted, but I am saying it's an incredible privilege to live in a democracy to begin with, and now is probably the most important time ever to just be trusting it, and letting this thing run its course. After all, there are much bigger issues at stake than one's own rights here. You would think the least one could do is not contribute to the problem by sowing more mistrust than there already is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 05, 2020, 10:10:37 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.

Well, come to think of it, the Super Bowl did take place on Monday morning in China. :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 11:47:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
"sooner" doesn't make a difference. Question is how to reduce transmission rate and quench the spread - and this is something US fails at while other countries can manage the task.
US as a whole still has 1.0 spread factor after a month of shutdown - and most states are above 0.8, meaning little wiggle room for opening up from current restrictions.

It absolutely does make a difference though, in a couple ways. First, when you flatten the curve early on, it becomes feasible to arrest it back down to zero and snuff things out. Let the curve get too high before you act, and the length of shutdown theoretically necessary to get cases down to zero grows past what is economically tenable and what people are willing to tolerate.

Second, the impact of shutdown measures on reducing transmission weakens as the percent of the population that is infected increases, because the spreading effect compounds. For example, having two infected people in a grocery store at the same time does not double the risk another customer will get sick - it more than doubles it. Because you now have scenarios where neither person alone exposes you to enough viral load to get you sick, but the combined viral load from both of them does. Naturally, as the percent of the population that is infected grows, the so does the likelihood of this compounding situation.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever.

WHO was willing to hand them to us, readymade, and we said "no thanks". Supply was never going to be endless, but this debacle set our testing ability back by several weeks compared to what it could have been if we weren't busy boycotting WHO out of spite.

QuoteThis is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.

My point is that the reason no one would have been willing at the time was precisely because we didn't have the ability to test for the virus and thus were oblivious to the fact that it was already spreading under our noses. If we had had more test kits sooner, we would have seen more positive results sooner, and we would have felt the urgency to act sooner.

It is important to not forget one crucial thing here. The outcome the US has seen was not inevitable - it is the direct result of repeated missteps on the part of the federal government. We cannot fix these missteps, but we can and should be learning from them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 05, 2020, 11:59:19 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 05, 2020, 09:42:47 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 05, 2020, 08:52:40 PM
Does anyone here know the effect supermarkets are having on the coronavirus spread?

From what I've seen, no grocery stores are shutting down due to coronavirus spread among its workers, but meat processing plants are? I'd think coronavirus would spread more quickly in grocery stores than in meat processing centers or churches or parks. I'd think the workers who've interacted with the most people since coronavirus came here would probably be grocery store workers.

If the government is so intent on reducing coronavirus transmission, then why did they not tell grocery stores to use curbside pickup or delivery only instead of potential contamination in the stores, since grocery stores were literally one of the only public places that were open in full a couple weeks ago? Seems fishy to me.
Around here, grocery stores are taking actions to limit the spread.  One-way aisles, mandated social distancing in checkout line, etc.  Plus it's not just a binary fact that you're near a person, length and intensity of contact matter.  When you're in line at the grocery store, you're standing six feet apart, and you're only there a few minutes at most (I've been using the self-checkouts, so no wait).  People in meat packing plants, in contrast, stand shoulder to shoulder with other people for hours on end.

There's also the political element to this.  Most people won't notice if their meat comes from a different plant.  They will notice if they can't go in to the store and get groceries.  I for one would be absolutely livid if I couldn't go into the store and do my shopping myself, ESPECIALLY with these shortages.  If there's something that's out that day, then I need to either go to additional stores or get an approved alternate product (sometimes both, and sometimes even the approved alternates are out too, leaving me to scramble to figure out something workable).  I would not want someone else to be handling that process for me.

Very true, I see your point. The only business I've stepped into since this all started was a Buc-ee's; my family does the online ordering and pickup, so I guess I had misconceptions about stores and processing plants during this time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 06, 2020, 12:30:47 AM
I once heard a talking head pundit, a liberal Democrat, if you're wondering, say on television that he believed the First Amendment should be held to prohibit laws against perjury, because freedom of speech should include the right to lie under oath.  Few reasonable people think that, because individual rights have to be weighed against societal harms.  This reasonably applies to all rights.  If some of your freedoms cost others too much, and if you know this and don't care, then they're not really freedoms; they're traps.  They trap you in the mindset that the only thing that matters is whether you get to do what you want regardless of the effects.  True freedom is the ability to choose to do the right thing, not because someone else threatens you, but because you know it's the right thing.  If you fail that test, that's where laws come to be needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 06, 2020, 06:48:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 09:31:33 PM
City of Clovis voted to reopen:

https://www.clovisroundup.com/city-council-votes-5-0-to-reopen-city-will-not-enforce-shelter-in-place-order/

Apparently Clovis is taking a hands off approach to the Governor's order akin to Modoc County.  The City of Fresno is allowing most retail and certain other businesses to reopen this week but has a standing order to May 31st.  The City Council of Clovis had some interesting things to say about one-size fits all orders not working for smaller communities...kind of a common snarky shot around these parts.

Counties in eastern NC are taking a similar view.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/05/06/commissioners-ask-for-regional-approach-to-reopening-state/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/05/06/commissioners-ask-for-regional-approach-to-reopening-state/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 06, 2020, 07:52:11 AM
Regarding curbside grocery pick-up:  it's hit or miss.  I switched to it for myself and my parents at the beginning of the shelter-in-place orders. 

The first hurdle was that there wasn't an open slot for over a week - and you still basically need a one-week lead time even now.  So that necessitated a trip to the store to pick up the things needed for that week - but that was a one-time thing. I sign up for a slot once every two weeks. 

Then the process of going online and selecting the products is cumbersome.  The website is organized by food type; kind of like aisles, and you look for and select your products.  If something isn't in stock that day you can't select it.  I'd say it's slightly more difficult vs being in the store as normal, looking for what you want.  Not overly more difficult, but slightly.  But if you're not comfortable on a computer, it would be more than just slightly more difficult. 

Our store lets you add to or change your order up until 24 hours before your pickup time, so that does help.  So if you at least "reserve" a slot, you're not stuck with thinking of your entire order immediately.

The pick-up process is fairly easy.  But the final flaw is if they run out of your product after you had successfully put it in your order, you don't find out until you get home and check your receipt.  The receipt clearly shows what wasn't available and you're not charged for it, but depending on how necessary those items were, it does mean trying to find it somewhere else. 

They've only done this with one store.  I don't know how much easier or harder other stores are.  It seems to be not terrible but not great either.  But some of that is personal preference.  I spend about 75% less time in grocery stores now...the time spent going to other stores to get those other things accounts for the 25%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 08:06:42 AM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 05, 2020, 08:52:40 PM

From what I've seen, no grocery stores are shutting down due to coronavirus spread among its workers, but meat processing plants are? I'd think coronavirus would spread more quickly in grocery stores than in meat processing centers or churches or parks.

My brother, an accountant with an inordinate number of jobs, once worked at a turkey processing plant.  Anyone going onto the processing floor had to wear full protection - paper gowns, booties on the shoes, masks, etc.  He wonders how the corona virus spread so much in meat processing plants.  His conclusion is that they didn't get it at the plant, they got it in their interactions outside of work.  I don't know if that's true or not.  But it does seem to make some sense.

Now we are being told that once churches reopen, they should not allow congregational singing.  This is probably in reaction to the choir (community, not church) in WA that early on didn't cancel rehearsal, and a large number of them got the virus.  There is some science that says singing could cause dispersion farther than normal breathing.  But I'm not sure anything has been quantified.  If 6 feet isn't a safe distance for singing, what distance is?


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 09:00:14 AM
Quote from: wxfree on May 06, 2020, 12:30:47 AM
I once heard a talking head pundit, a liberal Democrat, if you're wondering, say on television that he believed the First Amendment should be held to prohibit laws against perjury, because freedom of speech should include the right to lie under oath.  Few reasonable people think that, because individual rights have to be weighed against societal harms.  This reasonably applies to all rights.  If some of your freedoms cost others too much, and if you know this and don't care, then they're not really freedoms; they're traps.  They trap you in the mindset that the only thing that matters is whether you get to do what you want regardless of the effects.  True freedom is the ability to choose to do the right thing, not because someone else threatens you, but because you know it's the right thing.  If you fail that test, that's where laws come to be needed.


This is it.  Exactly.  My favorite course in college was one in Civil Liberties, where we studied in depth the case law built up around the Bill of Rights and other liberties in the Constitution.  And what the courts have done over time is attempt to strike the balance you are mentioning, and by and large have done a good job.

So when people say "I'm not going to wear a mask because the government is infringing on my rights," the have no idea what they are talking about.  And they probably don't really care either.  They just don't want the government telling you what to do.  But you know what?  Sometimes the government gets to tell you what to do.  And as a citizen, you need to abide by that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 06, 2020, 09:03:22 AM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 05, 2020, 08:52:40 PM
Does anyone here know the effect supermarkets are having on the coronavirus spread?

From what I've seen, no grocery stores are shutting down due to coronavirus spread among its workers, but meat processing plants are? I'd think coronavirus would spread more quickly in grocery stores than in meat processing centers or churches or parks. I'd think the workers who've interacted with the most people since coronavirus came here would probably be grocery store workers.

If the government is so intent on reducing coronavirus transmission, then why did they not tell grocery stores to use curbside pickup or delivery only instead of potential contamination in the stores, since grocery stores were literally one of the only public places that were open in full a couple weeks ago? Seems fishy to me.

Meat processing plants are cold environments, which are believed to be prime breeding grounds for the virus. Workers are also in close quarters.  Although it seems like whenever I see video of a meat processing plant, there's usually 1 guy just slowing walking around big slabs of meat.  Clearly some self-promoting video that they can pass along to news organizations! 

There's also going to be a concern for farms.  While most of the farm hands are out in the fields during the day, at night they are often in close quarters, and that's going to present some issues with the passing of the virus.

In Supermarkets, people are constantly moving around and are generally separated from each other.  The two worst areas for consumers: getting the grocery cart, although many supermarkets are constantly spraying them and there's usually some sort of disinfectant nearby.  1 way aisles are basically for show, as people are still going to pass each other anyway.  But the worst area is checking out, where congregating for longer periods of time is natural and you are guaranteed to be touching things that haven't been cleaned after every customer passes by.   You are also going to be hanging around employees, that are hanging around customers all day in that checkout area.  98% of the grocery shopping experience is pretty safe, and wearing masks help with that.  It's that final 2% of time at the end of the trip where it's most hazardous!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 06, 2020, 09:13:09 AM
Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 08:06:42 AM
His conclusion is that they didn't get it at the plant, they got it in their interactions outside of work.

People were saying that about the South Dakota meat processing plant outbreak, that it didn't help that the workers lived in crowded housing (not sure it was company-provided, or rather workers choosing group housing to stretch out their low pay).

It suggests that the fix for the meat processing plant outbreaks will be more complicated than some imagine. Waving the Defense Production Act wand won't by itself improve working conditions, or worker housing. That will cost money, which will mean significantly higher meat prices down the road even if and when we get past the immediate meat shortages due to closed plants, and sick or dead workers. Not a good outlook for carnivores like me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:30:04 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 11:47:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
"sooner" doesn't make a difference. Question is how to reduce transmission rate and quench the spread - and this is something US fails at while other countries can manage the task.
US as a whole still has 1.0 spread factor after a month of shutdown - and most states are above 0.8, meaning little wiggle room for opening up from current restrictions.

It absolutely does make a difference though, in a couple ways. First, when you flatten the curve early on, it becomes feasible to arrest it back down to zero and snuff things out. Let the curve get too high before you act, and the length of shutdown theoretically necessary to get cases down to zero grows past what is economically tenable and what people are willing to tolerate.

Second, the impact of shutdown measures on reducing transmission weakens as the percent of the population that is infected increases, because the spreading effect compounds. For example, having two infected people in a grocery store at the same time does not double the risk another customer will get sick - it more than doubles it. Because you now have scenarios where neither person alone exposes you to enough viral load to get you sick, but the combined viral load from both of them does. Naturally, as the percent of the population that is infected grows, the so does the likelihood of this compounding situation.
Certainly, there was a chance to stop infection at the border, pretty much the same way it happened with SARS. But there was a lot of arrogant mentality in both government and public for that to work. Frankly speaking, general public still has tons of that attitude.
And I didn't see virulence studies for this virus. Anyway. I would expect log dependence on initial virus loading, so 1 vs 2 wouldn't make a difference.
Slightly tangential, but still pretty relevant write-up on topic: http://systrom.com/blog/the-numbers-behind-social-distancing/

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:38:39 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.


China lied about the virus, which is big part of why the US reacted slowly.  Even with the bad info from China, the US should have immediately gone into lockdown mode once we knew how bad it was and utilized the Defense Production Act to mass produce as many test kits a day as possible until we had a billion of them.  Literally every factory that could possibly make them should have been making them.  I'm not certain a different administration would have reacted a lot better, but they couldn't have done worse.

Defece Production, my ass... You know what was the show stopper for testing program for quite a while?
DNA-free swabs. Aka all-plastic Q-tips. Those had to be imported on dedicated flights. 
Not to mention that PCR tests are pretty labor-intensive. QUALIFIED and CERTIFIED labor.

As for lockdown.. SHould that be implemented in 2003 for SARS as well? For Ebola in 2014?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:38:39 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.


China lied about the virus, which is big part of why the US reacted slowly.  Even with the bad info from China, the US should have immediately gone into lockdown mode once we knew how bad it was and utilized the Defense Production Act to mass produce as many test kits a day as possible until we had a billion of them.  Literally every factory that could possibly make them should have been making them.  I'm not certain a different administration would have reacted a lot better, but they couldn't have done worse.

Defece Production, my ass... You know what was the show stopper for testing program for quite a while?
DNA-free swabs. Aka all-plastic Q-tips. Those had to be imported on dedicated flights. 
Not to mention that PCR tests are pretty labor-intensive. QUALIFIED and CERTIFIED labor.

As for lockdown.. SHould that be implemented in 2003 for SARS as well? For Ebola in 2014?

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:00:46 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.
Thing is, understanding the scale of the problem takes time and - sigh - experience. While it is pretty clear in hindsight that the problem was pretty bad, most people ( me included) thought up to some point, (in my case  till mid- to late february), that the problem would be contained, authorities are on top of things, and we will have another SARS-like confinement scenario.
My belief was somewhat shaken mid-february, when I realized the scope of US testing is heavily restricted, but not totally ruined till very late February or early March. And I know I was pretty much ahead of the curve in realizing the scale of it. We were joking about the virus during Saratoga meet on 2/27, but none of us was really serious. Nobody would accept lockdown at that point.

UPD: Saratoga meet was actually March 6th..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:00:46 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.
Thing is, understanding the scale of the problem takes time and - sigh - experience. While it is pretty clear in hindsight that the problem was pretty bad, most people ( me included) thought up to some point, (in my case  till mid- to late february), that the problem would be contained, authorities are on top of things, and we will have another SARS-like confinement scenario.
My belief was somewhat shaken mid-february, when I realized the scope of US testing is heavily restricted, but not totally ruined till very late February or early March. And I know I was pretty much ahead of the curve in realizing the scale of it. We were joking about the virus during Saratoga meet on 2/27, but none of us was really serious. Nobody would accept lockdown at that point.

UPD: Saratoga meet was actually March 6th..


I agree with you.  I wasn't really even all that concerned the first weekend in March. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:17:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:38:39 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.


China lied about the virus, which is big part of why the US reacted slowly.  Even with the bad info from China, the US should have immediately gone into lockdown mode once we knew how bad it was and utilized the Defense Production Act to mass produce as many test kits a day as possible until we had a billion of them.  Literally every factory that could possibly make them should have been making them.  I'm not certain a different administration would have reacted a lot better, but they couldn't have done worse.

Defece Production, my ass... You know what was the show stopper for testing program for quite a while?
DNA-free swabs. Aka all-plastic Q-tips. Those had to be imported on dedicated flights. 
Not to mention that PCR tests are pretty labor-intensive. QUALIFIED and CERTIFIED labor.

As for lockdown.. SHould that be implemented in 2003 for SARS as well? For Ebola in 2014?

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.
So coronavirus isn't deadly enough?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 06, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 05, 2020, 07:29:59 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:20:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:12:56 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 05, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
We have people On this forum pretty much defying masks requirements.

I hope that wasn't aimed at me, because I don't live under a single mask requirement, nor have I even entered a building that had one.  The only time I've worn a mask was to try it on after my wife made them like a month and a half ago.
Meanwhile, KS is above 1.0 spreading factor. Good luck, mask orders may not apply, but Darwin theory does-  regardless of your opinion about it.

Surprisingly, despite many of the states in this area being "never lockdown" states, that can't be the only cause – Minnesota, which was previously doing really well, is just like the nearby states in doing poorly.

1. Increased testing.

2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.

The state expected case numbers o go up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 06, 2020, 11:25:10 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:17:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:38:39 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.


China lied about the virus, which is big part of why the US reacted slowly.  Even with the bad info from China, the US should have immediately gone into lockdown mode once we knew how bad it was and utilized the Defense Production Act to mass produce as many test kits a day as possible until we had a billion of them.  Literally every factory that could possibly make them should have been making them.  I'm not certain a different administration would have reacted a lot better, but they couldn't have done worse.

Defece Production, my ass... You know what was the show stopper for testing program for quite a while?
DNA-free swabs. Aka all-plastic Q-tips. Those had to be imported on dedicated flights. 
Not to mention that PCR tests are pretty labor-intensive. QUALIFIED and CERTIFIED labor.

As for lockdown.. SHould that be implemented in 2003 for SARS as well? For Ebola in 2014?

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.
So coronavirus isn't deadly enough?
This virus has killed more people than the previous Ebola and SARS outbreaks because it is far more widespread then those two ever were. While the death rate might be lower, total deaths are higher. Say you have 1000 people and the death rate of a virus is 5%. 50 people die. However, if you have 5000 subjects with a 1% death rate, the same amount of people die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 11:28:48 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:17:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:38:39 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 05, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Personally, what I would like to see is how these countries were able to reduce them so fast, especially in regards to their Shutdown/Lockdown rules.

By reacting quickly and swiftly.

Based on what we've seen from old samples being tested ex post facto and autopsies, it's clear the virus was already in the US and spreading by the end of February. We just weren't aware of the scope of the problem because of a completely botched federal response that resulted in a month-long delay in the country having test kits available in any useful quantity and quality.

If we had shut everything down a few weeks sooner than we did, our graph might look like those above. But instead, we likely blew past the point of no return without realizing it and so we're going to be stuck dealing with this until it runs its course.

The country doesn't have an endless supply of secret stash of test kits for the virus.  They need to be developed, created, produced, whatever. 

This is also a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking.  Try to think back to mid February.  We knew the virus was in China, and heard of the restrictions they were undergoing there.  Would you have been open to an economic shutdown in February?  Most people, at the time, would've said No.  Most people now would say yes, even though those same people were laughing and posting memes about how the Coronavirus was causing a toilet paper shortage.


China lied about the virus, which is big part of why the US reacted slowly.  Even with the bad info from China, the US should have immediately gone into lockdown mode once we knew how bad it was and utilized the Defense Production Act to mass produce as many test kits a day as possible until we had a billion of them.  Literally every factory that could possibly make them should have been making them.  I'm not certain a different administration would have reacted a lot better, but they couldn't have done worse.

Defece Production, my ass... You know what was the show stopper for testing program for quite a while?
DNA-free swabs. Aka all-plastic Q-tips. Those had to be imported on dedicated flights. 
Not to mention that PCR tests are pretty labor-intensive. QUALIFIED and CERTIFIED labor.

As for lockdown.. SHould that be implemented in 2003 for SARS as well? For Ebola in 2014?

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.
So coronavirus isn't deadly enough?


2003 SARS had a fatality rate of something like 9%.  And it only took a couple of days for symptoms to appear.  Those two factors limited the "community spread" of the disease. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 11:40:05 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:38:39 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 05, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
China lied about the virus, which is big part of why the US reacted slowly.  Even with the bad info from China, the US should have immediately gone into lockdown mode once we knew how bad it was and utilized the Defense Production Act to mass produce as many test kits a day as possible until we had a billion of them.  Literally every factory that could possibly make them should have been making them.  I'm not certain a different administration would have reacted a lot better, but they couldn't have done worse.

Defece Production, my ass... You know what was the show stopper for testing program for quite a while?
DNA-free swabs. Aka all-plastic Q-tips. Those had to be imported on dedicated flights. 
Not to mention that PCR tests are pretty labor-intensive. QUALIFIED and CERTIFIED labor.

As for lockdown.. SHould that be implemented in 2003 for SARS as well? For Ebola in 2014?

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.

This can't be stressed enough.  Everybody who keeps comparing COVID-19 to any other recent virus purely by using numbers of infections or deaths is missing the key factor of how and when this spreads.

People can have this virus and transmit it to others without having symptoms themselves for a long time, and after that they can be sick for quite a while before dying.  There really isn't anything that compares in this respect.

Until we can test everyone who is asymptomatic, minimizing the number of interactions that people who don't live together have within 6 feet of each other, and wearing masks when those interactions are unavoidable, is still the only way to minimize the number of deaths we ultimately have.  That reality hasn't changed just because after 7 weeks we're sick and tired of staying home.

Other countries that responded quicker and flattened their curves quicker have had to shut back down after opening things back up because cases and deaths spiked again, because so many people had it and were asymptomatic and started coming in contact with a bunch of other people again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 11:44:26 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 08:20:35 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:19:23 PM

Quote from: oscar on May 05, 2020, 06:51:17 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

A few key differences:

(1)  In those situations, the government wouldn't be telling you (or anyone else) that you can't go in the building.  You would be perfectly free to go there, just not when there are more than a certain number of other people there.  And, once inside, you'd be perfectly free to associate with the other people there.  In the situation we have now, there are jurisdictions telling every citizen they're flat-out not allowed to go somewhere.

(2)  Fire marshal codes exist because, if more people than that limit are in the property at once, then it has been determined to cause imminent danger to the others in case of a fire–by virtue of the very number of people on the premises.  That's not the same thing as saying that you are by your very existence an imminent danger to another person without even having been determined to be carrying the virus.

You're really just splitting hairs here.  The fact is that the government at times has a compelling interest to restrict assembly in a reasonable manner.  The questions then are "is the interest compelling?" And "is the restriction reasonable?"

Sorry, I guess we'll just have to disagree that it's splitting hairs to distinguish...

(1)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when you are a criminal or have tested positive for a communicable disease;

(2)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when they have nothing against you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 11:45:35 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:17:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 10:52:48 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 10:38:39 AM
Defece Production, my ass... You know what was the show stopper for testing program for quite a while?
DNA-free swabs. Aka all-plastic Q-tips. Those had to be imported on dedicated flights. 
Not to mention that PCR tests are pretty labor-intensive. QUALIFIED and CERTIFIED labor.

As for lockdown.. SHould that be implemented in 2003 for SARS as well? For Ebola in 2014?

No, cause SARS 2003 killed people relatively quickly and Ebola was blood borne.  You almost have a perfect storm with this virus.  Relatively easy to transmit....long time before symptoms appear....assymptomatic spread....more deadly than the flu.
So coronavirus isn't deadly enough?

COVID-19 is in a very weird middle spot as far as death rates go.  Something with a much higher death rate, like 2003 SARS, kills people so quickly that it naturally limits the spread which ultimately keeps the death toll down despite its deadliness.  Something with a much lower death rate, like your garden variety flu, kills so few people that we can just use normal measures (vaccines, handwashing, staying home when you're symptomatic) to fight it.

COVID-19 kills too many people to just allow it to spread without trying to stop it, but it doesn't kill enough people to stop itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 11:47:17 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 05, 2020, 10:05:28 PM
This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 09:00:14 AM
They just don't want the government telling you what to do. 

And our most venerated founding fathers would be proud.  Distrust of the government lay at the heart of our nation's foundation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:47:45 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 06, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.
One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 11:48:49 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 11:44:26 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 08:20:35 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:19:23 PM

Quote from: oscar on May 05, 2020, 06:51:17 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

A few key differences:

(1)  In those situations, the government wouldn't be telling you (or anyone else) that you can't go in the building.  You would be perfectly free to go there, just not when there are more than a certain number of other people there.  And, once inside, you'd be perfectly free to associate with the other people there.  In the situation we have now, there are jurisdictions telling every citizen they're flat-out not allowed to go somewhere.

(2)  Fire marshal codes exist because, if more people than that limit are in the property at once, then it has been determined to cause imminent danger to the others in case of a fire–by virtue of the very number of people on the premises.  That's not the same thing as saying that you are by your very existence an imminent danger to another person without even having been determined to be carrying the virus.

You're really just splitting hairs here.  The fact is that the government at times has a compelling interest to restrict assembly in a reasonable manner.  The questions then are "is the interest compelling?" And "is the restriction reasonable?"

Sorry, I guess we'll just have to disagree that it's splitting hairs to distinguish...

(1)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when you are a criminal or have tested positive for a communicable disease;

(2)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when they have nothing against you.

But we don't have widespread testing, which is exactly why we can't single out people who have tested positive.

Would you feel safe resuming "normal" life or something close to it, if you knew that 10% of the population had this virus but didn't know it?  What if it's 25%?  Or 50%? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 11:51:01 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 11:47:17 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 05, 2020, 10:05:28 PM
This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 09:00:14 AM
They just don't want the government telling you what to do. 

And our most venerated founding fathers would be proud.  Distrust of the government lay at the heart of our nation's foundation.

Yes, but distrust of science lays at the heart of conservative talk radio's foundation.  If you ignored everything the government said but paid attention to what scientists said, you'd be following 90% or more of what the government is asking you to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:58:50 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 11:51:01 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 11:47:17 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 05, 2020, 10:05:28 PM
This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 09:00:14 AM
They just don't want the government telling you what to do. 

And our most venerated founding fathers would be proud.  Distrust of the government lay at the heart of our nation's foundation.

Yes, but distrust of science lays at the heart of conservative talk radio's foundation.  If you ignored everything the government said but paid attention to what scientists said, you'd be following 90% or more of what the government is asking you to do.
Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 12:01:47 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:58:50 AM
Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.

I have noticed that a lot of scientific and economic "experts" have been wrong a lot over the years. That's how we end up with ruined economies and dangerous prescription drugs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 12:10:45 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 12:01:47 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:58:50 AM
Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.

I have noticed that a lot of scientific and economic "experts" have been wrong a lot over the years. That's how we end up with ruined economies and dangerous prescription drugs.

First of all, medical science and economics are entirely different fields.  Secondly, "a lot" is a vague term, but as our knowledge base advances, it's inevitable that a certain number of things we thought at the time were correct turned out to be wrong.  Deciding to selectively or wholly mistrust what medical science is telling us because a small percentage of it is inevitably going to turn out to be wrong is completely irrational.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 12:11:24 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 08:06:42 AM
Now we are being told that once churches reopen, they should not allow congregational singing. 

This is very much on my mind right now.  Just yesterday, our pastor announced a tentative date for re-opening and, in that e-mail, he stated:

"Our thought, and a common theme for churches around the country, is that we do not want to miss the opportunity to reopen with great impact.  We want to have as many people, and as much of a large celebratory nature as we possibly can."

I'm worried by that statement, especially the "common theme for churches around the country" part.  I expressed my concern in reply, but the few people who have been imprudent enough to reply-all to a mass e-mail (pet peeve!) so far don't seem to share my same concern.  While many businesses may be hesitant to re-open once restrictions are lifted, I fear that there are going to be a lot of individual citizens going hog-wild and immediately throwing all caution to the wind.  I think that may set us up for a renewed flare-up and start the process all over again.

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 11:48:49 AM
Would you feel safe resuming "normal" life or something close to it, if you knew that 10% of the population had this virus but didn't know it?  What if it's 25%?  Or 50%? 

I don't know what number would make me stop feeling safe returning to normal life or something close to it.  But it's certainly larger than 0.5%.

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 11:48:49 AM
But we don't have widespread testing, which is exactly why we can't single out people who have tested positive.

You say that like I don't know it.

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 11:51:01 AM
If you ignored everything the government said but paid attention to what scientists said, you'd be following 90% or more of what the government is asking you to do.

Who said I'm not paying attention to what scientists say?  It's possible to for two people to weigh the facts and settle on two different courses of action, you know.

Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 12:01:47 PM

Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:58:50 AM
Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.

I have noticed that a lot of scientific and economic "experts" have been wrong a lot over the years. That's how we end up with ruined economies and dangerous prescription drugs.

Two points:

(1)  Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.  Being wrong is the nature of science.  Hypotheses and theories are formed, but then they are adjusted as new facts come to light.  "Being right" in the beginning is more the exception than the rule, by the very nature of how science works.  That doesn't make scientists stupid or crackpots.  It just means that, despite their being fallible and always needing more information, they are still humble and willing enough to give it their best shot and present the public with as accurate a picture as possible with the data at hand.

(2)  Don't save the bathwater.  The media are very eager to jump on any new development, whether it's borne the weight of testing and peer review or not.  And, especially right now, prediction models are all the rage.  Prediction models are perhaps one of the weakest parts of science.  It's predicting the future, the world is a rather complicated place, and–especially in the beginning of something–one shouldn't put a whole lot of confidence in the assumptions made while crafting the models.  This is why the models have been all over the place.  One modeler's worst case scenario will be wildly different than another's, because they make different assumptions in the beginning.  Always keep in mind that, just because a CNN article comes across your suggestion list on your cell phone, that doesn't mean it's the latest consensus of the scientific community.




Meanwhile, I'm half-expecting to be back in the office starting sometime next week.  My closest co-worker was already called in this week.  They were going to have us all at home still this week, then gradually bring people back next week, but there was a big stack of paperwork for my co-worker to get to, so she was called in early.  She's being very cautious around the office, though, because she's on medication that depresses her immune system, plus she has very frequent interactions with her elderly grandmother.  I expect that, over the next two or three weeks, we'll all be settling back into our normal work routines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 06, 2020, 12:17:23 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:00:46 AMThing is, understanding the scale of the problem takes time and - sigh - experience. While it is pretty clear in hindsight that the problem was pretty bad, most people (me included) thought up to some point, (in my case  till mid- to late February), that the problem would be contained, authorities are on top of things, and we will have another SARS-like confinement scenario.

My belief was somewhat shaken mid-February, when I realized the scope of US testing is heavily restricted, but not totally ruined till very late February or early March. And I know I was pretty much ahead of the curve in realizing the scale of it. We were joking about the virus during Saratoga meet on 2/27, but none of us was really serious. Nobody would accept lockdown at that point.

UPD: Saratoga meet was actually March 6th.

In my case, the timeline was pretty similar.  My thinking in early February was that China would be even more effective at containing it than it was with SARS because its HDI was higher, translating into more resources to throw at the problem.  I was actually preoccupied with the possibility of long-term sequelae like bone tissue necrosis (something that is still a concern and is part of the reason I argue we should be very wary of buying into a herd immunity strategy), but I was not mentally prepared to give up on containment.

The uh-oh moment came for me in early March when I read about a documented example of asymptomatic spread in Italy that is now believed to be part of the reason cases really took off in Lombardy.  For all of the criticism that has been heaped on the CDC's complacency and its insistence that a native-to-the-US test be used, it has to be remembered that other countries were willing to use the tests that were available (including the WHO test), yet fell into the same trap of thinking, "No problem, we can still contain this" while they were already knee-deep in silent cases.

I also woke up to the problem of test reliability comparatively late.  We still don't have a test that offers better than a 10% false negative rate, do we?

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 11:40:05 AMOther countries that responded quicker and flattened their curves quicker have had to shut back down after opening things back up because cases and deaths spiked again, because so many people had it and were asymptomatic and started coming in contact with a bunch of other people again.

At this stage I am pretty cynical and operating under the assumption that governors are unwinding stay-at-home orders because they realize that the public will not voluntarily comply with lockdown rules unless they have visuals of people dying in overcrowded ICUs right in front of their noses.  I fully expect a large share (not the entirety) of states that have unwound restrictions to crash back into lockdown.

Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:47:45 AMOne thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.

I suspect that things didn't quite change...

I don't know about Tyson specifically or the chicken industry in general, but the beef producers in western Kansas have largely switched to Somali refugees (who are already US citizens) to avoid having production shut down by ICE raids.  Kansas is also an open-shop state, and one of the tactics meatpackers use to discourage workers from organizing (and thus advocating for better conditions as well as higher pay) is to prohibit them from being rehired at the same plant if they quit voluntarily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 12:26:51 PM
I think U.S. cases are declining rapidly now just based on a formula that we can use:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of new cases on a given day. 'T' is the percentage of tests administered that day that come back positive.

I don't know what formula any state or government agency uses, but that's the best I can come up with.

If you go by that, we only have about one-fourth the number of new cases we had a month ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 12:35:52 PM
This past week I've had several requests from numerous friends asking they can use our home gym (Post Driveway cookout on National BBQ Day).  I'm cool with letting people grab a work out but they seemed kind of disappointed that I don't have a ton of benches or really high weight sets.  I'm essentially on a parts hunt every time I've gone out to some general store.  If anything this whole virus thing renewed my interest  in gathering strength training equipment. 

I'm planning on hitting my bike starting this Friday for 25 miles to go see the historic rail depot in Sanger.  I might start looking at 25-40 mile rides (this is a mountain bike and not a street bike) as a weekly challenge to mix up some of the cardio exercise I've been doing and get more time on the road. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 12:38:31 PM
Quote from: LM117 on May 06, 2020, 06:48:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 05, 2020, 09:31:33 PM
City of Clovis voted to reopen:

https://www.clovisroundup.com/city-council-votes-5-0-to-reopen-city-will-not-enforce-shelter-in-place-order/

Apparently Clovis is taking a hands off approach to the Governor's order akin to Modoc County.  The City of Fresno is allowing most retail and certain other businesses to reopen this week but has a standing order to May 31st.  The City Council of Clovis had some interesting things to say about one-size fits all orders not working for smaller communities...kind of a common snarky shot around these parts.

Counties in eastern NC are taking a similar view.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/05/06/commissioners-ask-for-regional-approach-to-reopening-state/ (http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/05/06/commissioners-ask-for-regional-approach-to-reopening-state/)

I suspect most states are facing similar problems right now.  Interestingly things like this aren't drawing a ton of media attention outside of local areas.  The Governor put out some sort of half hearted statement last night about putting people at risk but it appears to have no teeth to it.  Supposedly the Phase 2 announcement for California tomorrow is going to allow some local leeway on deciding repealing restrictions. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 12:44:37 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 06, 2020, 12:17:23 PMMy thinking in early February was that China would be even more effective at containing it than it was with SARS because its HDI was higher, translating into more resources to throw at the problem.  I was actually preoccupied with the possibility of long-term sequelae like bone tissue necrosis (something that is still a concern and is part of the reason I argue we should be very wary of buying into a herd immunity strategy), but I was not mentally prepared to give up on containment.
Frankly speaking, China did beautifully on containment. There was never an assumprion that there would be no leak out of the country. There were what, 50 cases of SARS in US and 200 in Montreal alone?
Europe was somewhat more vulnerable geografically, but US definitely had a rock solid chance of staying out of trouble. You might remember that single document I blame for the failure...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 12:48:53 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 12:26:51 PM
I think U.S. cases are declining rapidly now just based on a formula that we can use:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of new cases on a given day. 'T' is the percentage of tests administered that day that come back positive.

I don't know what formula any state or government agency uses, but that's the best I can come up with.

If you go by that, we only have about one-fourth the number of new cases we had a month ago.

U.S. cases are declining, but the decline is definitely not rapid.

To understand the graph below, you need to know a few things about how it's set up:

(1) The scale is logarithmic, meaning each tick mark is ten times larger than the tick mark before.  This basically turns the ubiquitous exponential curve into a straight line, so it's easier to comprehend.

(2) The x-axis is not time, but rather total number of confirmed cases.  This is more useful, because the pertinent information is what percentage of total cases are new cases.

(3)  Falling below the straight line indicates a decline in new cases as a portion of the total cases so far (that is, it indicates a "flattening of the curve", as they say).  Falling clear down to the baseline would indicate the virus has been kicked in the butt.

(https://i.imgur.com/xKonhNu.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 12:52:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 12:48:53 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 12:26:51 PM
I think U.S. cases are declining rapidly now just based on a formula that we can use:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of new cases on a given day. 'T' is the percentage of tests administered that day that come back positive.

I don't know what formula any state or government agency uses, but that's the best I can come up with.

If you go by that, we only have about one-fourth the number of new cases we had a month ago.

U.S. cases are declining, but the decline is definitely not rapid.

To understand the graph below, you need to know a few things about how it's set up:

(1) The scale is logarithmic, meaning each tick mark is ten times larger than the tick mark before.  This basically turns the ubiquitous exponential curve into a straight line, so it's easier to comprehend.

(2) The x-axis is not time, but rather total number of confirmed cases.  This is more useful, because the pertinent information is what percentage of total cases are new cases.

(3)  Falling below the straight line indicates a decline in new cases as a portion of the total cases so far (that is, it indicates a "flattening of the curve", as they say).  Falling clear down to the baseline would indicate the virus has been kicked in the butt.

(https://i.imgur.com/xKonhNu.jpg)
Can you post a link to that analysis as well? I am data hungry, and I love playing with such toys...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 06, 2020, 12:59:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:47:45 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 06, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.
One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...

Meanwhile, we still had Kentucky counties with double-digit unemployment rates even before all this started. There are plenty of American citizens who are available to work. I still don't understand the need to import workers, especially illegal aliens, when there are citizens who'd love to have a job.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 01:00:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 12:52:52 PM
Can you post a link to that analysis as well? I am data hungry, and I love playing with such toys...

Oh, if you didn't already know about this site, then you're going to love it.  You can break it down by country, or even by sub-national unit for four countries.  You can also switch between confirmed cases or reported deaths, and between logarithmic or linear scale.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ (https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Alps on May 06, 2020, 01:09:21 PM
Let's try to steer back away from politics... this is not a roads-related post so the tolerance for politics is lower
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 01:09:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 12:11:24 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 08:06:42 AM
Now we are being told that once churches reopen, they should not allow congregational singing. 

This is very much on my mind right now.  Just yesterday, our pastor announced a tentative date for re-opening and, in that e-mail, he stated:

"Our thought, and a common theme for churches around the country, is that we do not want to miss the opportunity to reopen with great impact.  We want to have as many people, and as much of a large celebratory nature as we possibly can."


That's not what I'm hearing from our church (United Methodist).  Both our Michigan Bishop and the Wisconsin Bishop have similar reopening plans.

You start slowly - first only 10 people.  This would be your pastor, worship leaders, key musicians, probably a tech person, etc.  This mean you go from streaming mostly recorded services to streaming live services (for those churches that have an online presence).

Then 50 people, then 100.  This is where it gets sticky - how do you determine which group of 50 or 100 members can come any given Sunday?

At the beginning of this, when it became apparent that we wouldn't be open by Easter, the bishop said that once we reopen he would "declare" it to be Easter for celebration.  It looks like that position is being modified for the slower opening approach.  We may end up celebrating Easter just before Christmas, if at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 01:11:34 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 06, 2020, 12:59:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:47:45 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 06, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.
One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...

Meanwhile, we still had Kentucky counties with double-digit unemployment rates even before all this started. There are plenty of American citizens who are available to work. I still don't understand the need to import workers, especially illegal aliens, when there are citizens who'd love to have a job.
Because US citizens would need at least a minimum wage, workers comp, very likely some benefits etc. You can cut a lot of corners breaking the law just a touch.
I mean, Abe Lincoln was a great guy - but that abolition thingie  was a bit rushed, so lots of workarounds have to be used..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 06, 2020, 12:59:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:47:45 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 06, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.
One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...

Meanwhile, we still had Kentucky counties with double-digit unemployment rates even before all this started. There are plenty of American citizens who are available to work. I still don't understand the need to import workers, especially illegal aliens, when there are citizens who'd love to have a job.

The problem is that most Americans who have an established footprint in the work force don't want to work at Meat Processing facilities, Harvesting Facilities, farms, or even ranches for what those jobs pay.  I suspect that even the current pandemic has done little to change that mindset towards pay in those industries.  If the wages of the work force increased the costs just get pushed down the roads to consumers who will complain. 

Interestingly given that there is a such a large agricultural foot print here in Central California it seems to be the primary reason this part of the State has been so active.  Pretty all those ranches and farms were deemed essential from the get-go. Much of the yields are being wasted right now because there isn't enough restaurant demand which led to an over supply.  I've found it easier through much of the pandemic just to order groceries from places like Denny's over going to the grocery store.  Driving around the sticks looking for fruit and vegetable stands has been also practical. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 06, 2020, 01:24:10 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 11:47:17 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 05, 2020, 10:05:28 PM
This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government.
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 09:00:14 AM
They just don't want the government telling you what to do. 
And our most venerated founding fathers would be proud.  Distrust of the government lay at the heart of our nation's foundation.

Distrust, yes, in a monarchy with very limited freedoms. So we created a democracy, which was supposed to, above all things, remove that distrust. That seems to no longer be working. But I will say, having no government at all would be exponentially scarier than a government that has implemented a few policies that we don't like. Having a communist government would also be exponentially scarier.
Our government is much closer to the middle of that spectrum than it is to either end, and I think that's important context to remember during the current situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 06, 2020, 01:30:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 11:44:26 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 05, 2020, 08:20:35 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 07:19:23 PM

Quote from: oscar on May 05, 2020, 06:51:17 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on May 05, 2020, 06:22:05 PM
How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

A few key differences:

(1)  In those situations, the government wouldn't be telling you (or anyone else) that you can't go in the building.  You would be perfectly free to go there, just not when there are more than a certain number of other people there.  And, once inside, you'd be perfectly free to associate with the other people there.  In the situation we have now, there are jurisdictions telling every citizen they're flat-out not allowed to go somewhere.

(2)  Fire marshal codes exist because, if more people than that limit are in the property at once, then it has been determined to cause imminent danger to the others in case of a fire–by virtue of the very number of people on the premises.  That's not the same thing as saying that you are by your very existence an imminent danger to another person without even having been determined to be carrying the virus.

You're really just splitting hairs here.  The fact is that the government at times has a compelling interest to restrict assembly in a reasonable manner.  The questions then are "is the interest compelling?" And "is the restriction reasonable?"

Sorry, I guess we'll just have to disagree that it's splitting hairs to distinguish...

(1)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when you are a criminal or have tested positive for a communicable disease;

(2)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when they have nothing against you.


Who says they need to have something against you?  You are creating a standard that doesn't exist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 01:49:17 PM
Meanwhile in Cleveland enterprising individuals have decided to use up their free time to rename the street grid:

https://m.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2020/05/05/genital-street-signs-overtake-tremont
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 01:50:39 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 01:09:33 PM
That's not what I'm hearing from our church (United Methodist).  Both our Michigan Bishop and the Wisconsin Bishop have similar reopening plans.

You start slowly - first only 10 people.  This would be your pastor, worship leaders, key musicians, probably a tech person, etc.  This mean you go from streaming mostly recorded services to streaming live services (for those churches that have an online presence).

Then 50 people, then 100.  This is where it gets sticky - how do you determine which group of 50 or 100 members can come any given Sunday?

It's for that reason that our church leadership has decided on a later re-opening date rather than an earlier one.  Here in Kansas, the restrictions will relax to be no more than 90 in attendance.  Our church just doesn't see how to re-open for worship and still keep under that threshold, so we'll simply wait until the limitation of 90 also elapses.  I suppose one solution would be to go to two services instead of one service, but–at least for our congregation–that would require a HECK of a lot of re-organization of staff, and we likely wouldn't even have enough people willing and able to fill the spots.

Quote from: Alps on May 06, 2020, 01:09:21 PM
Let's try to steer back away from politics... this is not a roads-related post so the tolerance for politics is lower

Yes, sir.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
Pretty all those ranches and farms were deemed essential from the get-go. Much of the yields are being wasted right now because there isn't enough restaurant demand which led to an over supply.

This is a tragic irony, isn't it?  It's easy to say, But people still eat the same amount of food, and wonder how there can be such a waste of agricultural produce.  But that ignores the fact that people have switched from eating out (commercial supply chain) to eating at home (residential supply chain).

I remember, when Florida dairymen were first grieving at having to dump huge amounts of milk, some people started asking why they couldn't simply donate that milk to food banks etc.  In one article I read back then, it was pointed out that–even if it were legal to do so–one can't exactly back up a tanker truck to a food bank and unload it.  It just doesn't work that way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 01:52:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 01:49:17 PM
Meanwhile in Cleveland enterprising individuals have decided to use up their free time to rename the street grid:

https://m.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2020/05/05/genital-street-signs-overtake-tremont

:rolleyes:  Couldn't even spell "wiener" correctly, could they?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 01:58:02 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 01:59:41 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
Of course, I have an allergy to heavy-handed government overreach, so that's my medical condition that will preclude my wearing a mask in public.

If that's the excuse you give to the cops when you're driving 80 mph in a 25 mph residential zone while snorting crack cocaine off a naked hooker in a convertible, then maybe that's reasonable.  But if you're just have opinions about it, then that's not an illness, and it takes away from those that do have true issues.

If your employer has said that you can work from home, have you protested saying that the government is overreaching and you demand to go into the office every day?
+1 & funny


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:00:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 01:52:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 01:49:17 PM
Meanwhile in Cleveland enterprising individuals have decided to use up their free time to rename the street grid:

https://m.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2020/05/05/genital-street-signs-overtake-tremont

:rolleyes:  Couldn't even spell "wiener" correctly, could they?

Well, it is Cleveland after all...

Yes, people really don't get how much goes into food disposal.  I usually have to stop people at least a dozen times a year from donating or trying to sell expired goods.  The State Standards are pretty high on when stuff needs to go but they are even more strict on the Federal side. 

To that end, I think my wife and I hit on the over saturation of people going to the grocery store early.  We've been getting some kick ass discounts from restaurants trying to get rid of bulk amounts of food.  We just had tri-tip steak for about a solid week when I bought seven pounds from a restaurant we frequent for $18 dollars.  They have a similar chicken deal coming up this week and I'll definitely be partaking.  Either way it shouldn't be a shock that the commercial side is wasting product while the grocery side can't keep up with the almost 180 degree change in dining habits nation wide.  That said, I would argue going to a place to pick up dinner or buy bulk from a restaurant is probably "safer"  than piling into a place like Costco which is now limiting purchase quantities of meat. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:08:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:00:46 PM
That said, I would argue going to a place to pick up dinner or buy bulk from a restaurant is probably "safer"  than piling into a place like Costco which is now limiting purchase quantities of meat. 

When we were still in the middle of the toilet paper crisis, I read an article whose author had purchased rolls of toilet paper along with his dinner order at a now-carryout-only restaurant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:13 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 05, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
It's also worth noting that coronavirus is more severe than most other diseases that we deal with.  If you go to the hospital for the flu, you're there a few days.  If you get a severe case of coronavirus and have to go to the hospital, you're going to be in the ICU for WEEKS.  Our hospitals were not built to handle this.  They are built to rapidly turn over patients with little to no spare capacity.  Combine this with the far greater severity for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, and the extreme ease of spreading coronavirus, is why it tends to max out hospital capacity if allowed to spread without restrictions like social distancing and lockdowns.

I'm very aware of that.  Our good friends' cousin up in Iowa got the virus several weeks ago, and he almost died.  He got fluid in his lungs and, AIUI, he had to be kept prone on a vibrating bed in order to prevent him suffocating to death.  He still cannot speak due to damage done to his respiratory system.  I think he might still be in the hospital, but I'm not sure of that.

So you know this & still don't care?

I have to go out everyday & work.

I have to wear a mask & take it off & put it on every time I go into a public space.

Yea it's annoying. However its protecting other people as well.

Its not hard just to listen & do what told in order to get this shit over & done with.

The "trampling of rights"  is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee's.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
I have to admit, I never realized how much most people eat out until this pandemic.  With the exception of their weekly trip to Proietti's for pizza (usually... sometimes they'll be different and order an entree off the menu), my parents only eat out once in a blue moon.  I eat out even less often... outside of roadtrips, eating out for me is mainly my weekly pizza/wings takeout (my parents have been making their weekly trip for longer than I've been alive; the habit stuck), especially as I view a sit-down restaurant (as opposed to fast food or fast casual) as primarily being a social affair.  Meanwhile, eating out for lunch on work days is both unhealthy and expensive, so I only do it when I'm out in the field rather than in the office.

I assumed everyone was this way.  Given the huge disruptions we had even before outbreaks at meat packing plants, I guess not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 02:15:52 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
I have to admit, I never realized how much most people eat out until this pandemic.  With the exception of their weekly trip to Proietti's for pizza (usually... sometimes they'll be different and order an entree off the menu), my parents only eat out once in a blue moon.  I eat out even less often... outside of roadtrips, eating out for me is mainly my weekly pizza/wings takeout (my parents have been making their weekly trip for longer than I've been alive; the habit stuck), especially as I view a sit-down restaurant (as opposed to fast food or fast casual) as primarily being a social affair.  Meanwhile, eating out for lunch on work days is both unhealthy and expensive, so I only do it when I'm out in the field rather than in the office.

I assumed everyone was this way.  Given the huge disruptions we had even before outbreaks at meat packing plants, I guess not.
My family rarely eats out, we have been getting takeout every week during this, which is actually more than normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 06, 2020, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
I have to admit, I never realized how much most people eat out until this pandemic.  With the exception of their weekly trip to Proietti's for pizza (usually... sometimes they'll be different and order an entree off the menu), my parents only eat out once in a blue moon.  I eat out even less often... outside of roadtrips, eating out for me is mainly my weekly pizza/wings takeout (my parents have been making their weekly trip for longer than I've been alive; the habit stuck), especially as I view a sit-down restaurant (as opposed to fast food or fast casual) as primarily being a social affair.  Meanwhile, eating out for lunch on work days is both unhealthy and expensive, so I only do it when I'm out in the field rather than in the office.

I assumed everyone was this way.  Given the huge disruptions we had even before outbreaks at meat packing plants, I guess not.

I saw something on the news about certain cities experiencing an increase in 911 calls due to people who normally eat out all the time, who tried to cook, and who didn't know what they were doing and caused fires.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:19:24 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:08:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:00:46 PM
That said, I would argue going to a place to pick up dinner or buy bulk from a restaurant is probably "safer"  than piling into a place like Costco which is now limiting purchase quantities of meat. 

When we were still in the middle of the toilet paper crisis, I read an article whose author had purchased rolls of toilet paper along with his dinner order at a now-carryout-only restaurant.

Yes, there was a couple restaurants offering commercial toilet paper on their carry out options here as well.  We didn't need to take them up on any of that since we had excess toilet paper from the wedding last year.  Since TP-Gate started we've only gone through six rolls and have 24 left, we have about 70% of what we had to family. 

I forgot to note, partially reopening restaurants to dine in service to reopen the commercial food supply chain has been used in some local arguments here for going against state orders.  A lot of restaurants have set up screens and other safety things in place.  Modoc County made such a move first and I expect that similar local moves will he made here.  The City of Clovis might have allowed dine in service again but I haven't read their official order to see if that's the case. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:20:30 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:13 PM

Quote from: vdeane on May 05, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
It's also worth noting that coronavirus is more severe than most other diseases that we deal with.  If you go to the hospital for the flu, you're there a few days.  If you get a severe case of coronavirus and have to go to the hospital, you're going to be in the ICU for WEEKS.  Our hospitals were not built to handle this.  They are built to rapidly turn over patients with little to no spare capacity.  Combine this with the far greater severity for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, and the extreme ease of spreading coronavirus, is why it tends to max out hospital capacity if allowed to spread without restrictions like social distancing and lockdowns.

I'm very aware of that.  Our good friends' cousin up in Iowa got the virus several weeks ago, and he almost died.  He got fluid in his lungs and, AIUI, he had to be kept prone on a vibrating bed in order to prevent him suffocating to death.  He still cannot speak due to damage done to his respiratory system.  I think he might still be in the hospital, but I'm not sure of that.

So you know this & still don't care?

I have to go out everyday & work.

I have to wear a mask & take it off & put it on every time I go into a public space.

Yea it's annoying. However its protecting other people as well.

Its not hard just to listen & do what told in order to get this shit over & done with.

The "trampling of rights"  is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee's.

When have I said I don't care?  Disagreeing with the measures being implemented doesn't mean I don't care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:30:51 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:13 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 05, 2020, 03:31:11 PM
It's also worth noting that coronavirus is more severe than most other diseases that we deal with.  If you go to the hospital for the flu, you're there a few days.  If you get a severe case of coronavirus and have to go to the hospital, you're going to be in the ICU for WEEKS.  Our hospitals were not built to handle this.  They are built to rapidly turn over patients with little to no spare capacity.  Combine this with the far greater severity for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, and the extreme ease of spreading coronavirus, is why it tends to max out hospital capacity if allowed to spread without restrictions like social distancing and lockdowns.

I'm very aware of that.  Our good friends' cousin up in Iowa got the virus several weeks ago, and he almost died.  He got fluid in his lungs and, AIUI, he had to be kept prone on a vibrating bed in order to prevent him suffocating to death.  He still cannot speak due to damage done to his respiratory system.  I think he might still be in the hospital, but I'm not sure of that.

So you know this & still don't care?

I have to go out everyday & work.

I have to wear a mask & take it off & put it on every time I go into a public space.

Yea it's annoying. However its protecting other people as well.

Its not hard just to listen & do what told in order to get this shit over & done with.

The "trampling of rights"  is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee's.


iPhone

Note; I know this wasn't directed at me but I'll opine anyways. 

Personally I know at least a half dozen people who have had COVID-19 or were being investigated.  I know at least another half dozen who have reasonable arguments (myself included) to believe they had COVID-19 before Virus-Time exploded in California.  To that end, I'm finding myself caring far less if the restrictions continue, but I do abide them.  I do think that locally they need to start loosening up to a degree and not everything is a "one size fits all."   I'm noticing there is a lot of similar sentiments in my immediate family, especially after what happened with my Uncle recently passing of heart disease.  It almost feels like people have forgotten en masse that there are tons of ways life ends besides the Coronavirus.  My view is only solidified by the fact that I have a ton of family and friends out of work right now, they need the money.   

At some point life has to start carrying on, even if that carries considerably risk.  I think we are far past the point of "stopping"  the virus and probably the best that can be done minimize the impacts.  The trouble is that society will have to adapt to operating under this current pandemic somehow or the economic effects will be just as worse if not more so than the disease.  Sitting around forever is and not finding a way to adapt isn't the way to do things.  It seems like that a lot of people who want the restrictions to continue in full force believe everyone else somehow doesn't care people are getting sick.  I've frequently observed that crowd resorting "social shaming"  to ensure compliance to their views. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
The “trampling of rights” is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee’s.

No, it isn't.  It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:44:29 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
The “trampling of rights” is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee’s.

No, it isn't.  It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.
I believe they should start letting people go back to work. They already are. But majority posts Ive seen (not on here) are people complaining about not being able to go out & "do things" . That may be a small percentage of people saying that.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
The “trampling of rights” is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee’s.

No, it isn't.  It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.

If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:48:19 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:30:51 PM
At some point life has to start carrying on, even if that carries considerably risk.  I think we are far past the point of "stopping"  the virus and probably the best that can be done minimize the impacts.  The trouble is that society will have to adapt to operating under this current pandemic somehow or the economic effects will be just as worse if not more so than the disease.  Sitting around forever is and not finding a way to adapt isn't the way to do things.  It seems like that a lot of people who want the restrictions to continue in full force believe everyone else somehow doesn't care people are getting sick.  I've frequently observed that crowd resorting "social shaming"  to ensure compliance to their views. 

Exactly.  We are going to have to learn to live with it instead of staying shutdown/shut in forever.  I'm a bit sick of the social shaming stuff I've seen in the media and on places like Facebook with no acknowledgement from those doing the shaming that there are others out there who fear being hungry and broke more than they fear this virus.  These folks who want everything shutdown (seemingly forever) seem to lack a lot of empathy for those who have been tossed out of their jobs.  That means, as we are currently, they have lost healthcare insurance, cannot make their rent or mortgage, cannot pay their utility bills, and in some cases, have gone without food to make sure their kids eat.  I count myself as one of the lucky ones, able to work for an "essential" business from home.  But, I have neighbors who have had their hours cut, or lost their jobs completely.  And to tell some of these folks tossed out of jobs to just find a new one is just cold, as it isn't all that easy.  The jobs out there for the taking are much lower-paying than they have had, and do not match the skill sets these folks have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:50:02 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
The "trampling of rights"  is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee's.

No, it isn't.  It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.

If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

Define how the government is to "do its job" here?  Even government income (at all levels) is way down due to the lack of incoming taxes.  As an example, there's some serious discussion about putting off road projects here in Illinois (a state which seriously needs to rebuild and upgrade its system) due to the lack of gas tax money coming in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:50:17 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:30:51 PM

Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 05, 2020, 03:38:13 PM
Our good friends' cousin up in Iowa got the virus several weeks ago, and he almost died.  He got fluid in his lungs and, AIUI, he had to be kept prone on a vibrating bed in order to prevent him suffocating to death.  He still cannot speak due to damage done to his respiratory system.  I think he might still be in the hospital, but I'm not sure of that.

So you know this & still don't care?

It almost feels like people have forgotten en masse that there are tons of ways life ends besides the Coronavirus.  My view is only solidified by the fact that I have a ton of family and friends out of work right now, they need the money.   

At some point life has to start carrying on, even if that carries considerably risk.  I think we are far past the point of "stopping"  the virus and probably the best that can be done minimize the impacts.  The trouble is that society will have to adapt to operating under this current pandemic somehow or the economic effects will be just as worse if not more so than the disease.  Sitting around forever is and not finding a way to adapt isn't the way to do things.  It seems like that a lot of people who want the restrictions to continue in full force believe everyone else somehow doesn't care people are getting sick.  I've frequently observed that crowd resorting "social shaming"  to ensure compliance to their views. 

Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.

This, this, and this a thousand times more.  It's not that I don't care about the sick and dying.  It's that I also care about other things too, such as the loss of livelihood for millions of Americans for one thing.  I also care about rights and freedoms.

Heck, the only person I personally know who has specifically suggested disobeying the 10-person state limit was that very friend whose cousin nearly died from the virus.  Surely you aren't going to accuse him of "not caring" about his cousin, are you?




Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

That all depends on what you believe the role of government is, and that's quite overtly a political topic.  We've already been admonished to keep the politics out of this discussion, so let's let that one lie, OK?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 02:56:55 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:48:19 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 02:30:51 PM
At some point life has to start carrying on, even if that carries considerably risk.  I think we are far past the point of "stopping"  the virus and probably the best that can be done minimize the impacts.  The trouble is that society will have to adapt to operating under this current pandemic somehow or the economic effects will be just as worse if not more so than the disease.  Sitting around forever is and not finding a way to adapt isn't the way to do things.  It seems like that a lot of people who want the restrictions to continue in full force believe everyone else somehow doesn't care people are getting sick.  I've frequently observed that crowd resorting "social shaming"  to ensure compliance to their views. 

Exactly.  We are going to have to learn to live with it instead of staying shutdown/shut in forever.  I'm a bit sick of the social shaming stuff I've seen in the media and on places like Facebook with no acknowledgement from those doing the shaming that there are others out there who fear being hungry and broke more than they fear this virus.  These folks who want everything shutdown (seemingly forever) seem to lack a lot of empathy for those who have been tossed out of their jobs.  That means, as we are currently, they have lost healthcare insurance, cannot make their rent or mortgage, cannot pay their utility bills, and in some cases, have gone without food to make sure their kids eat.  I count myself as one of the lucky ones, able to work for an "essential" business from home.  But, I have neighbors who have had their hours cut, or lost their jobs completely.  And to tell some of these folks tossed out of jobs to just find a new one is just cold, as it isn't all that easy.  The jobs out there for the taking are much lower-paying than they have had, and do not match the skill sets these folks have.

Thing is, even with the mid-scale reopening, a lot of low-paying jobs will not come back. Waiters may be the ones hurt most, retail was already struggling - and at least Amazon should be hiring to compensate for that. 
I suspect, a whole new layer of social net would have to appear - somewhat similar to a "Year without a summer" basically setting up a concept of social security in Europe.
The other aspect of the continued shutdown is purely material. While some things may be done from home, tangible goods production and distribution require people to physically do something - at least some people. I am mostly concerned about the agricultural aspect of it. Even with most advanced social security system, there will be a problem if corn, wheat, potatoes are not harvested...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:03:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 02:56:55 PM
I am mostly concerned about the agricultural aspect of it. Even with most advanced social security system, there will be a problem if corn, wheat, potatoes are not harvested...

Such a catastrophe would be similar to a region-wide drought, wouldn't it?  If so, then most farmers would be able to weather it.  The friends I was talking about earlier (whose cousin is still in bad shape from the virus) just got back from visiting family in the farm country of southwestern Kansas.  If I can catch whichever one of them is picking up their kids from our house today, I'll ask what they've heard recently about the ag impact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:12:41 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:03:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 02:56:55 PM
I am mostly concerned about the agricultural aspect of it. Even with most advanced social security system, there will be a problem if corn, wheat, potatoes are not harvested...

Such a catastrophe would be similar to a region-wide drought, wouldn't it?  If so, then most farmers would be able to weather it.  The friends I was talking about earlier (whose cousin is still in bad shape from the virus) just got back from visiting family in the farm country of southwestern Kansas.  If I can catch whichever one of them is picking up their kids from our house today, I'll ask what they've heard recently about the ag impact.
More like worldwide drought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:12:41 PM
More like worldwide drought.

I was assuming not every corner of the globe would lose a year's harvest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:26:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:12:41 PM
More like worldwide drought.

I was assuming not every corner of the globe would lose a year's harvest.
I don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?
Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 03:28:31 PM
Wall Street Journal piece on California beginning Phase 2 of reopening.  Weird to see Fresno used as a talking point in a publication that large:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/californias-lockdown-liberation-11588721029

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 03:33:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:50:17 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

That all depends on what you believe the role of government is, and that's quite overtly a political topic.  We've already been admonished to keep the politics out of this discussion, so let's let that one lie, OK?

The problem is that it shouldn't be political.  It shouldn't be a political issue as to whether or not the government takes care of people who can't work because it's not safe to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:38:35 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 03:33:43 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:50:17 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

That all depends on what you believe the role of government is, and that's quite overtly a political topic.  We've already been admonished to keep the politics out of this discussion, so let's let that one lie, OK?

The problem is that it shouldn't be political.  It shouldn't be a political issue as to whether or not the government takes care of people who can't work because it's not safe to do so.

It is, though.  It's the difference between big government and small government, between a large social safety net and a limited social safety net.  That's a political topic.  Not everyone believes it's the government's job to "take care" of you.  Enough said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 03:39:42 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 02:56:55 PM
and at least Amazon should be hiring to compensate for that. 

My son worked at Amazon for a couple weeks after he was laid off from his job.  They called him back when his employer got a PPP loan, and he jumped for it.  He had heard that the new hires at Amazon would be laid off once things started back toward normal, and all the existing Amazon employees who took a voluntary layoff to stay away from others started coming back to work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 03:42:28 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:26:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:12:41 PM
More like worldwide drought.

I was assuming not every corner of the globe would lose a year's harvest.
I don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?
Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.

The other part of this equation is that the US and Canada provide much of the world's grain, be it soybeans, corn, or wheat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maize#Production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics This one is most interesting and most telling, IMHO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exports
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_soybean_production

If we here in North America cannot produce grains, then a lot of the world will starve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2020, 03:47:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:38:35 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 03:33:43 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:50:17 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

That all depends on what you believe the role of government is, and that's quite overtly a political topic.  We've already been admonished to keep the politics out of this discussion, so let's let that one lie, OK?

The problem is that it shouldn't be political.  It shouldn't be a political issue as to whether or not the government takes care of people who can't work because it's not safe to do so.

It is, though.  It's the difference between big government and small government, between a large social safety net and a limited social safety net.  That's a political topic.  Not everyone believes it's the government's job to "take care" of you.  Enough said.

Perhaps I'm not framing it properly.  It's ridiculous that normal political positions, right or left, can't be set aside temporarily for a crisis.  It's a sign that people have let ideology override common sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:47:56 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 03:42:28 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:26:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:22:33 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:12:41 PM
More like worldwide drought.

I was assuming not every corner of the globe would lose a year's harvest.
I don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?
Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.

The other part of this equation is that the US and Canada provide much of the world's grain, be it soybeans, corn, or wheat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maize#Production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics This one is most interesting and most telling, IMHO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exports
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_soybean_production

If we here in North America cannot produce grains, then a lot of the world will starve.
And if you think about many other places facing the same issue, things become even more interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 06, 2020, 03:48:50 PM
At the beginning of the crisis, the goal was to "flatten the curve." The purpose of flattening the curve was not to save lives. It was to reduce the number of COVID patients at any one time so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed.

By most accounts, we have successfully flattened the curve. In some states, or parts of states, hospitals were overwhelmed; in other states or parts of states, they weren't.

In either event, the curve was flattened. The thing about flattening the curve, though, is that it doesn't save lives. Flattening the curve merely lengthens it. IOW the area under the curve stays about the same. So we'll eventually see the same number of deaths from COVID than if we had done nothing, but across a longer time span.

Somewhere along the line, however, the goal morphed from "flattening the curve" to "saving lives." So now, we dare not restart the economy lest someone, anyone, dies from COVID. Well guess what, whatever we do, whenever we restart the economy, there were be more deaths.

The problem is, the longer we wait before we get the economic engine running again, the more businesses (especially small busniesses) will shutter permanently, the more jobs they create will be lost for good, the more lives will be ruined. If the goal stays "saving lives at all cost," we will end up in a depression that will result in more misery than twenty COVID crises.

We've been flattening the curve. Now it's time to care about people and get back to work. Like many people, I think we can do both. And I would hope that those who think we can do both would not be so easily accused of being cold-hearted bastards.

Someone upthread warn against distrusting government. Let me find it...

Quote from: webny99 on May 05, 2020, 10:05:28 PM
This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government. I'm not saying it's entirely unwarranted, but I am saying it's an incredible privilege to live in a democracy to begin with, and now is probably the most important time ever to just be trusting it, and letting this thing run its course. After all, there are much bigger issues at stake than one's own rights here. You would think the least one could do is not contribute to the problem by sowing more mistrust than there already is.

I respectfully disagree. The Founders thought it was important to distrust government. That's why they framed the constitution the way they did. A read of the Federalist Papers will convince anyone of their attitudes in that regard. They recognized that government, by its very nature, tends to expand, tends to overstep, tends to abuse the rights of the people. And the behavior of some of our governors has cast this issue in stark relief, with arbitrary and inconsistent restrictions and refusal to disclose the process by which decisions were made or how waivers were granted (my own governor of Pennsylvania being an example). Some governors have given us every reason to distrust them.

Our constitutional rights are important not only in happy times. Actually those rights are even more important in crisis times. Because it's in times of crisis that a government is most likely to abuse those rights, not in happy times. People need to be more vigilant, not less, during crises.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 03:42:28 PM
The other part of this equation is that the US and Canada provide much of the world's grain, be it soybeans, corn, or wheat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maize#Production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics This one is most interesting and most telling, IMHO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exports
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_soybean_production

If we here in North America cannot produce grains, then a lot of the world will starve.

I remember the drought of 2002.  While two friends and I were on a road trip from Chicago to southwestern Colorado, we stopped in for lunch at a farmhouse in northwestern Kansas, with family friends from when I had grown up there.  I asked them how much of that year's wheat harvest they were able to save.  The answer was "none of it".

Maybe I misunderstood the concern.  I thought the concern was that farmers would be put out of business.  That's why I suggested that, because most farmers plan ahead for bad yields and droughts every so often by such measures, they should be able to rebound from a lost year of harvest.  However, now I realize the concern may have been that we simply wouldn't have enough food because the loss of harvest would be more widespread than in the case of a drought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:59:17 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 06, 2020, 03:48:50 PM
The Founders ... the constitution ... government ... rights ... abuse ...

If we keep discussing this, the thread will get locked.  I, for one, as much as I think it's important to discuss these things, don't want this thread to get locked.  I think it's very important for us to have a place to discuss this pandemic, and please don't be responsible for our losing that place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:03:30 PM
The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:05:24 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:03:30 PM
The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 04:05:54 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 03:47:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:38:35 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 03:33:43 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 02:50:17 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

That all depends on what you believe the role of government is, and that's quite overtly a political topic.  We've already been admonished to keep the politics out of this discussion, so let's let that one lie, OK?

The problem is that it shouldn't be political.  It shouldn't be a political issue as to whether or not the government takes care of people who can't work because it's not safe to do so.

It is, though.  It's the difference between big government and small government, between a large social safety net and a limited social safety net.  That's a political topic.  Not everyone believes it's the government's job to "take care" of you.  Enough said.

Perhaps I'm not framing it properly.  It's ridiculous that normal political positions, right or left, can't be set aside temporarily for a crisis.  It's a sign that people have let ideology override common sense.
Regardless of political standing, one has to assume that government resources are not infinite. There is a lot of money printing going on - whatever you call it. Do they use "loan from federal reserve" by now?
Regardless, those are dollars not backed up by any goods. That destabilizes the economy, that will have consequences.
The more such money enters the system, the harder those consequences will be.
Inflation would be just the first pass of the problem - and probably significant inflation.. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:06:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:05:24 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:03:30 PM
The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

It wasn't coincidental. My heart started racing on March 17 or 18.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 06, 2020, 04:07:53 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:06:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:05:24 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:03:30 PM
The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

It wasn't coincidental. My heart started racing on March 17 or 18.

That could still be coincidental.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:08:04 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:06:29 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:05:24 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:03:30 PM
The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

It wasn't coincidental. My heart started racing on March 17 or 18.

I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:09:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:08:04 PM
I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

They didn't say how or why it happened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 06, 2020, 04:26:16 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 03:59:17 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 06, 2020, 03:48:50 PM
The Founders ... the constitution ... government ... rights ... abuse ...
If we keep discussing this, the thread will get locked.  I, for one, as much as I think it's important to discuss these things, don't want this thread to get locked.  I think it's very important for us to have a place to discuss this pandemic, and please don't be responsible for our losing that place.

I'm not advocating partisan politics. I was in part responding to a suggestion we should trust now more than ever. I was expressing more along the lines of "trust but verify." Along with data and approach to the data, it has direct bearing on the topic at hand.

As long as we do so respectfully, of course, I would hope we could discus the wisdom of that without the thread being locked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 04:30:14 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:09:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:08:04 PM
I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

They didn't say how or why it happened.

What's going could be a contributing factor to an existing health concern.  Do you have a history of heart related disease or other related issues?  Sometimes you don't even know there is a problem until you have to see a Doctor for something closely related.  That's how I found out my EKG readings are all over the place. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:31:33 PM
Yes, but...

Quote from: Alps on May 06, 2020, 01:09:21 PM
Let's try to steer back away from politics... this is not a roads-related post so the tolerance for politics is lower

(emphasis mine)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:31:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 04:30:14 PM
What's going could be a contributing factor to an existing health concern.  Do you have a history of heart related disease or other related issues?  Sometimes you don't even know there is a problem until you have to see a Doctor for something closely related.  That's how I found out my EKG readings are all over the place.

I had major health problems but they weren't really heart-related.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 04:35:05 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:31:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 04:30:14 PM
What's going could be a contributing factor to an existing health concern.  Do you have a history of heart related disease or other related issues?  Sometimes you don't even know there is a problem until you have to see a Doctor for something closely related.  That's how I found out my EKG readings are all over the place.

I had major health problems but they weren't really heart-related.

Sometimes you just don't know until some straw breaks the camels back and all of the sudden you find out.  I know in my case I had zero indicators of possible Afib.  I was in the E.R. dehydration the first time that jazz came up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 06, 2020, 04:42:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:26:02 PMI don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?  Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.

It is arguable that most physically mature adults in the US eat too much meat, especially red meat--our per capita annual consumption of red meat is about half again that of the UK even though average heights for adult males and females is basically the same.  We probably also eat cereal grains (especially wheat) to a degree that is inconsistent with good long-term metabolic health.

On the other hand, kinks in the meat supply have the potential to price the poor out of protein depending on the price elasticity of processed meat.  I also worry about nutritional sufficiency if COVID-19 triggers a collapse of truck farming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 04:55:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:09:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:08:04 PM
I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

They didn't say how or why it happened.

And if it was caused by stress, was it stress over the lockdown?  Or stress over COVID itself?

Hospitals around here are starting to encourage people to go to the ER when they need to.  Many didn't go because they thought if it wasn't COVID, they shouldn't go.  Doctors want them to go to the ER when they have problems like yours so they can be treated sooner rather than too late.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:57:12 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 04:55:49 PM
And if it was caused by stress, was it stress over the lockdown?  Or stress over COVID itself?

It was over the lockdown. I actually wasn't that afraid of the virus until the lockdown created all the panic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 04:58:29 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 06, 2020, 04:42:53 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 03:26:02 PMI don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?  Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.

It is arguable that most physically mature adults in the US eat too much meat, especially red meat--our per capita annual consumption of red meat is about half again that of the UK even though average heights for adult males and females is basically the same.  We probably also eat cereal grains (especially wheat) to a degree that is inconsistent with good long-term metabolic health.

On the other hand, kinks in the meat supply have the potential to price the poor out of protein depending on the price elasticity of processed meat.  I also worry about nutritional sufficiency if COVID-19 triggers a collapse of truck farming.

Most adults consume way too many calories period regardless of what they consistent of nutritionally.  Most people probably lean towards the sedentary side of things which probably equates to a daily caloric intake need of 1,800-2,400 calories a day.  That number is actually pretty easy to get to eating relatively small portions.  That's why I kind of see what's going on now as the perfect time to push a public health message about exercise and being active. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 04:58:57 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:50:02 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
The "trampling of rights"  is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee's.

No, it isn't.  It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.

If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

Define how the government is to "do its job" here?  Even government income (at all levels) is way down due to the lack of incoming taxes.  As an example, there's some serious discussion about putting off road projects here in Illinois (a state which seriously needs to rebuild and upgrade its system) due to the lack of gas tax money coming in.
Canada has been giving everyone $2000/month.  European countries have been giving people a high percentage of their salaries.  Meanwhile, the US can't be bothered to do more than throw a one-time $1200 check at people.

Quote from: qguy on May 06, 2020, 03:48:50 PM
In either event, the curve was flattened. The thing about flattening the curve, though, is that it doesn't save lives. Flattening the curve merely lengthens it. IOW the area under the curve stays about the same. So we'll eventually see the same number of deaths from COVID than if we had done nothing, but across a longer time span.
False, false, false.  If the hospitals are overwhelmed, that means they can't treat everyone.  If someone gets the disease (or has something else that sends them to a hospital) and can't get treated because the hospital has no more capacity or equipment to treat them, then they die.  So yes, it did save lives.  This isn't just a hypothetical - it actually happened in Italy, where some people were left to die just because they were old or had certain conditions.  NYC was ready to tell EMTs that if a person who called 911 couldn't be stabilized right where they were to leave them to die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 06, 2020, 05:02:57 PM
The Supreme Court declines to consider a petition against Pennsylvania's stay at home order, which could portend the ultimate fate of any of these lawsuits.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/496448-supreme-court-declines-to-lift-pennsylvania-health-order
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 05:05:24 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 04:58:57 PM

Quote from: qguy on May 06, 2020, 03:48:50 PM
In either event, the curve was flattened. The thing about flattening the curve, though, is that it doesn't save lives. Flattening the curve merely lengthens it. IOW the area under the curve stays about the same. So we'll eventually see the same number of deaths from COVID than if we had done nothing, but across a longer time span.

False, false, false.  If the hospitals are overwhelmed, that means they can't treat everyone.  If someone gets the disease (or has something else that sends them to a hospital) and can't get treated because the hospital has no more capacity or equipment to treat them, then they die.  So yes, it did save lives.  This isn't just a hypothetical - it actually happened in Italy, where some people were left to die just because they were old or had certain conditions.  NYC was ready to tell EMTs that if a person who called 911 couldn't be stabilized right where they were to leave them to die.

Correct.

Geometrically speaking, the area under the curve could be the same either way, but in the real world there are other factors to affect the area under the curve that change with the shape of the curve.

The pertinent question, however, is how many people's lives are being saved by the hospitals' not being overrun.  That is perhaps a question we'll never know the answer to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 06, 2020, 05:14:22 PM
NC's Outer Banks will be lifting visitor restrictions on May 16.

https://www.wavy.com/news/north-carolina/obx/outer-banks-lifting-visitor-restrictions-on-may-16/ (https://www.wavy.com/news/north-carolina/obx/outer-banks-lifting-visitor-restrictions-on-may-16/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 05:17:50 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 06, 2020, 05:02:57 PM
The Supreme Court declines to consider a petition against Pennsylvania's stay at home order, which could portend the ultimate fate of any of these lawsuits.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/496448-supreme-court-declines-to-lift-pennsylvania-health-order

Those type, maybe.  However, the ones in Michigan and Wisconsin are not about the orders themselves, but about whether the executive branch has exceeded its authority, brought by the legislative branch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 06, 2020, 05:18:51 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:50:02 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 06, 2020, 02:45:10 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
The "trampling of rights"  is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee's.

No, it isn't.  It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.

If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

Define how the government is to "do its job" here?  Even government income (at all levels) is way down due to the lack of incoming taxes.  As an example, there's some serious discussion about putting off road projects here in Illinois (a state which seriously needs to rebuild and upgrade its system) due to the lack of gas tax money coming in.

Shit is already hitting the fan for NCDOT.

https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2020/2020-05-04-revenue-decline-depletes-ncdot-cash.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2020/2020-05-04-revenue-decline-depletes-ncdot-cash.aspx)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 06, 2020, 05:25:14 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 04:58:57 PM
Canada has been giving everyone $2000/month.  European countries have been giving people a high percentage of their salaries.  Meanwhile, the US can't be bothered to do more than throw a one-time $1200 check at people.

I'm not going to check every country, but stuff like this gets translated badly.

Per these stories: https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/trudeau-covid-19-emergency-response-benefit and https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/04/17/canada-is-already-paying-its-unemployed-citizens-2000-per-month-for-coronavirus-relief/ , the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) gives $2,000 a month for the next four months for people who lost their job because of COVID-19. It would apply to people who are quarantined, helping a sick family member, have been laid off or have not received payment from their employer.

So, let's give this a little thought.  Everyone in Canada is NOT getting $2,000 a month. 

Canada is giving certain people who are laid off, can't work due to Coronovirus, or are working but not getting paid $2,000 a month for 4 months.

The US is giving certain people who are laid off or can't work due to Coronovirus, $600 per week.  I seriously doubt our rules would allow most people to work but not get paid.

Now, I may not be a very good accountant, but if I calculate for just 4 weeks per month, that equates to Americans getting $2,400 per month, whereas Canada is giving their citizens $2,000 per month.

My research took 1/4 of the time it took to write up this description.

So, people need to stop reading the stories from sources that intentionally deceive people.  The whole reason they stay in business is because they know everything people read on the internet is true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 06, 2020, 06:16:50 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 06, 2020, 05:25:14 PMThe US is giving certain people who are laid off or can't work due to Coronovirus, $600 per week.  I seriously doubt our rules would allow most people to work but not get paid.

We are also allowing "soft furloughs" where employees are kept on the payroll and paid for hours worked, but their hours are cut, and they qualify for the $600/week payment.  For many (perhaps most) employees covered by this provision in the law, this actually amounts to a temporary pay raise.  However, this program is not widely used because it requires employers to liaise with state unemployment insurance providers, who are overwhelmed.

What people and small businesses are eligible for on paper is just one part of the whole picture; another, and in the US context perhaps more critical, is how well the administrative machinery works to deliver these benefits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 06, 2020, 06:33:03 PM
Arizona has a slightly higher population than Massachusetts yet Massachusetts has seen 10x the number of COVID deaths.  Will Arizona be spared from this pandemic or is their spike in cases still coming?   

(https://i.imgur.com/euiuKAk.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=Arizona&location=Massachusetts&doublingtime=3

I would include California in the list of states that haven't yet seen a big spike in cases.  California is twice the population of New York yet at their worst they were seeing 540 deaths per week compared to New York which at its worse was seeing 5318 deaths (and since then weekly deaths have dropped by 62%).  Today weekly deaths in California are 502 which is only an 8% reduction from its peak.  If California starts to see exponential growth in cases upon loosening restrictions they could quickly overtake New York in Covid deaths.

(https://i.imgur.com/ek77PYZ.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=California&location=New+York&doublingtime=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 06, 2020, 06:42:05 PM
^^ It is suspected that there may be two different strains of the virus, one, less lethal, directly from China, and one, more lethal, from Europe.  California and Arizona seem to have gotten the Chinese strain.  New York and Massachusetts seem to have gotten the European strain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 06:45:31 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 06, 2020, 06:33:03 PM


Using the logarithmic scale on that site, which is easier for me to process...

Massachusetts appears to have been on the downward trend for about a week now.

Arizona had begun to plateau but has now been on the upward trend again for the past two weeks straight, so I think its safe to say their peak is yet to come.

California looks pretty typical to me, with a gradual flattening of the curve but nothing to get excited about.  I'd say it totally remains to be seen which way it will go there.

New York is on a very clear downward trend.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 06:53:06 PM
It was the mom who picked up the girls today, so I asked her what she heard during her recent time with family in southwestern Kansas.  She said her dad talks a lot about the shutdowns affecting agriculture, but not really any specifics.  It's all just speculation right now.  The only thing she mentioned specifically is that the price of beef is expected to increase (good for them, I suppose, considering they're in the cattle market).  Other than that, she just mentioned concern about perishable produce having to be binned.

Isn't this actually the opposite of a drought situation, though?  It's not that there isn't anyone to harvest the corn, wheat, and potatoes.  It's that there's too much produce being harvested.

I suspect the real impact will be similar to the toilet paper issue:  a glut of commercial-grade product and a dearth of residential-grade product.  This would be a direct result of shutdowns:  the faster people are allowed to get back into their "usual" routines, the sooner demand will more closely match the established supply chain, and thus the less disruption there will overall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 07:26:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 06:53:06 PM
It was the mom who picked up the girls today, so I asked her what she heard during her recent time with family in southwestern Kansas.  She said her dad talks a lot about the shutdowns affecting agriculture, but not really any specifics.  It's all just speculation right now.  The only thing she mentioned specifically is that the price of beef is expected to increase (good for them, I suppose, considering they're in the cattle market).  Other than that, she just mentioned concern about perishable produce having to be binned.

Isn't this actually the opposite of a drought situation, though?  It's not that there isn't anyone to harvest the corn, wheat, and potatoes.  It's that there's too much produce being harvested.

I suspect the real impact will be similar to the toilet paper issue:  a glut of commercial-grade product and a dearth of residential-grade product.  This would be a direct result of shutdowns:  the faster people are allowed to get back into their "usual" routines, the sooner demand will more closely match the established supply chain, and thus the less disruption there will overall.
for most places, the harvest is still a few months away.  I don't think crops are even planted here in NY.
As for the amount of food - I suspect the "number of calories" argument still holds. If some milk gets disposed, it is not because milk is not needed, it is because kids would have to go without their soft-serve icecream  and eat more other food to compensate - or... maybe... they will just be a bit slimmer?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 07:31:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 06:45:31 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 06, 2020, 06:33:03 PM


Using the logarithmic scale on that site, which is easier for me to process...

Massachusetts appears to have been on the downward trend for about a week now.

Arizona had begun to plateau but has now been on the upward trend again for the past two weeks straight, so I think its safe to say their peak is yet to come.

California looks pretty typical to me, with a gradual flattening of the curve but nothing to get excited about.  I'd say it totally remains to be seen which way it will go there.

New York is on a very clear downward trend.

California has been plateauing despite the virus hitting a huge hot spot in Los Angeles County.  Take that one county out of the picture and trends become far more positive.  San Francisco and the Bay Area are barely even registering any new cases.  That's a large reason why so many counties here are splitting from the Governor and doing their own thing with phased reopening.  The issue for many is 1/4 of the state population in a relatively small area has been driving healthy policy state wide.  Granted the entire top 5 counties with cases are all from SoCal now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 06, 2020, 07:54:15 PM
There have been a lot of tiring things during this pandemic, but trying to keep up with this thread has got to be nearing the top of the list...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: renegade on May 06, 2020, 08:00:12 PM
As stressful as this whole coronavirus thing has been ... now I get to deal with the fast  :confused: and easy  :-o  Unemployment system for both my spouse and myself.  I've pulled most of my hair out over the past week, and I don't have that much to begin with! :crazy:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 06, 2020, 10:04:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 07:31:05 PM
California has been plateauing despite the virus hitting a huge hot spot in Los Angeles County.  Take that one county out of the picture and trends become far more positive.  San Francisco and the Bay Area are barely even registering any new cases.  That's a large reason why so many counties here are splitting from the Governor and doing their own thing with phased reopening.  The issue for many is 1/4 of the state population in a relatively small area has been driving healthy policy state wide.  Granted the entire top 5 counties with cases are all from SoCal now.

Yeah, I think another line of thinking that has been gaining more prominence recently is that looking at things on a state-by-state basis is really not a sufficient level of granularity, especially for large states like California. When you take things apart further you see areas where there really haven't been many infections, areas where infections have been trending downward for a while, areas where infections have plateaued, and areas where infections are currently increasing.

Given this, it makes sense to take regional approaches to what is or isn't safe to permit, as a way of allowing more economic activity to resume while still focusing on curve flattening where needed. But... this comes with the pitfall that it creates an incentive for people to travel to regions with looser restrictions in order to do things not allowed where they live. So you need means of preventing people from doing this or you're just going to have people bringing the virus into places that had it more under control.

Still, it's worth stressing that at this time the majority of Americans still live in a region that would have to be classified as less safe. Indeed, there are some pretty staggering statistical realities currently about how much one area can dominate the numbers:
- cases in Texas are declining, but if you remove Houston (which had the state's largest early outbreak but is now past peak) the rest of the state is still trending upward
- cases in the US as a whole are declining, but if you remove New York City (which had the country's largest early outbreak but is now past peak) the rest of the country is still trending upward.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 10:13:26 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 06, 2020, 07:54:15 PM
There have been a lot of tiring things during this pandemic, but trying to keep up with this thread has got to be nearing the top of the list...
This is now the most replied to off topic thread by almost 2 times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Perhaps, then, there is a fundamental difference between the way you and I live our lives.

Staying safe is not the goal of my life.  Heck, staying alive isn't even the goal of my life.  I fully expect to die at some point in my life.  That doesn't mean I live recklessly, but it does mean that "is it safe?" isn't the guiding question that controls my decisions.

In 2008, my wife and I decided to take steps towards doing mission work in Mexico.  A couple of months later, escalating cartel violence started making US headlines, and everybody we knew told is it wasn't safe to go to Mexico.  The first year we went (March 2009), my wife's own mother called her "stupid" for taking our one-year-old son to Mexico.  Her grandparents told us that, with any future trips, we shouldn't even tell them we were going until we got back to the USA.  Even today, the US Department of State says of the state we travel to:  "Reconsider Travel ... due to crime.  Violent crime and unpredictable gang activity are common..."  For the first several years, I did research about the safety of travel there.  I obtained detailed data from the Mexican attorney-general's office, downloaded Harvard mathematician-published research papers, looked through FBI crime statistics, made charts and graphs based on my findings, etc.  But all of that was really for the sake of others traveling with us.  It wasn't for our own sake.  We had a call on our lives to serve in Mexico, and it's our belief that one is supposed to follow his or her calling whether it's safe or not.  (I'm trying to avoid overtly religious language.)  Our best friends recently moved to the town we serve in, with our full encouragement and support.  "Is it safe?" is a question that factors into their decisions and ours, but it is far from the most important factor.

When we do go to Mexico, we often do roof demolition.  We destroy the very surface we stand on, sometimes swinging mattocks while balancing on the edge of the wall because there's nowhere else to stand.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  After the work is done, we take the children down the street to the swimming hole.  The water isn't treated, people dump all sorts of stuff into the canal that flows through it, my friend has even seen a turd floating by.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  But we decide to do these things anyway, because they are acts of ministry to the children there.

2 million drivers in the USA suffer permanent injury or disability because of car accidents in any given year.  I personally see or hear car crashes every year, and major wrecks on the highway frequently affect my commute.  But this does not keep me from driving a car.  Is driving safe?  Maybe, maybe not.

More than half a million Americans die from heart disease every year.  I have borderline cholesterol, and heart attacks run in the family.  But these things do not define how I choose what to eat.  I buy high-oleic sunflower oil for cooking applications I used to use lard for, for example, but I'm not about to switch to a raw diet.  Could I be healthier if I became religious about my diet?  Certainly.  But extending my life as long as possible isn't my goal.

If I drop food on the floor, I pick it up and eat it.  Might I get sick from that?  I suppose so.

Back when I didn't have a car, I used to hitchhike.  One week-end, I took Greyhound from Chicago to Menominee (MI), then hitchhiked for two days across and down through Michigan and back to Chicago.  Just for fun, because I wanted to see Michigan.  Was it safe?  Well, who knows? because there are almost no statistics on the safety of hitchhiking.

"Safety" is an illusion anyway.  What will you be looking for?  100% safety?  It doesn't exist.  There are always canaries, if you look hard enough.  When the government does tell us it's "safe", what will that mean anyway?  No risk of infection?  That we can go to the store with zero risk of catching any illness?  That's an impossibility.  We live our lives with a combination of myriad factors, each of which lies somewhere along a continuum of risk.  Focusing on that continuum will leave a person paralyzed, because it's impossible to eliminate all the risk factors.

I'm not about to give up spending time with my friends just because it might be risky.  I'm not about to stop going to the grocery store just because someone might have sneezed nearby at some point earlier in the day.  I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.  If I determine that the risks are great enough to warrant a lifestyle change on my part, then I'll change my behavior.  But, until that time, I'm going to continue living my life as normally as possible under current government and corporate restrictions.  And when those restrictions are lifted, I'll be only too eager to return to normal life.
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

But if you are selfish and go out anyway, it could cause others to lose their health or their lives. Think about others. Your right to go outside does not trump my right to not get sick. It's all about me me me me me and damn the collateral damage that can lead to death. How can you sleep with blood on your hands?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on May 06, 2020, 11:03:26 PM
The weather forecast for Mother's Day around here is good but Phil Murphy will have ruined it as he did Easter.

I assume that he plans to continue punishing us over Memorial Day weekend too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:03:53 PM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Perhaps, then, there is a fundamental difference between the way you and I live our lives.

Staying safe is not the goal of my life.  Heck, staying alive isn't even the goal of my life.  I fully expect to die at some point in my life.  That doesn't mean I live recklessly, but it does mean that "is it safe?" isn't the guiding question that controls my decisions.

In 2008, my wife and I decided to take steps towards doing mission work in Mexico.  A couple of months later, escalating cartel violence started making US headlines, and everybody we knew told is it wasn't safe to go to Mexico.  The first year we went (March 2009), my wife's own mother called her "stupid" for taking our one-year-old son to Mexico.  Her grandparents told us that, with any future trips, we shouldn't even tell them we were going until we got back to the USA.  Even today, the US Department of State says of the state we travel to:  "Reconsider Travel ... due to crime.  Violent crime and unpredictable gang activity are common..."  For the first several years, I did research about the safety of travel there.  I obtained detailed data from the Mexican attorney-general's office, downloaded Harvard mathematician-published research papers, looked through FBI crime statistics, made charts and graphs based on my findings, etc.  But all of that was really for the sake of others traveling with us.  It wasn't for our own sake.  We had a call on our lives to serve in Mexico, and it's our belief that one is supposed to follow his or her calling whether it's safe or not.  (I'm trying to avoid overtly religious language.)  Our best friends recently moved to the town we serve in, with our full encouragement and support.  "Is it safe?" is a question that factors into their decisions and ours, but it is far from the most important factor.

When we do go to Mexico, we often do roof demolition.  We destroy the very surface we stand on, sometimes swinging mattocks while balancing on the edge of the wall because there's nowhere else to stand.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  After the work is done, we take the children down the street to the swimming hole.  The water isn't treated, people dump all sorts of stuff into the canal that flows through it, my friend has even seen a turd floating by.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  But we decide to do these things anyway, because they are acts of ministry to the children there.

2 million drivers in the USA suffer permanent injury or disability because of car accidents in any given year.  I personally see or hear car crashes every year, and major wrecks on the highway frequently affect my commute.  But this does not keep me from driving a car.  Is driving safe?  Maybe, maybe not.

More than half a million Americans die from heart disease every year.  I have borderline cholesterol, and heart attacks run in the family.  But these things do not define how I choose what to eat.  I buy high-oleic sunflower oil for cooking applications I used to use lard for, for example, but I'm not about to switch to a raw diet.  Could I be healthier if I became religious about my diet?  Certainly.  But extending my life as long as possible isn't my goal.

If I drop food on the floor, I pick it up and eat it.  Might I get sick from that?  I suppose so.

Back when I didn't have a car, I used to hitchhike.  One week-end, I took Greyhound from Chicago to Menominee (MI), then hitchhiked for two days across and down through Michigan and back to Chicago.  Just for fun, because I wanted to see Michigan.  Was it safe?  Well, who knows? because there are almost no statistics on the safety of hitchhiking.

"Safety" is an illusion anyway.  What will you be looking for?  100% safety?  It doesn't exist.  There are always canaries, if you look hard enough.  When the government does tell us it's "safe", what will that mean anyway?  No risk of infection?  That we can go to the store with zero risk of catching any illness?  That's an impossibility.  We live our lives with a combination of myriad factors, each of which lies somewhere along a continuum of risk.  Focusing on that continuum will leave a person paralyzed, because it's impossible to eliminate all the risk factors.

I'm not about to give up spending time with my friends just because it might be risky.  I'm not about to stop going to the grocery store just because someone might have sneezed nearby at some point earlier in the day.  I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.  If I determine that the risks are great enough to warrant a lifestyle change on my part, then I'll change my behavior.  But, until that time, I'm going to continue living my life as normally as possible under current government and corporate restrictions.  And when those restrictions are lifted, I'll be only too eager to return to normal life.
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

But if you are selfish and go out anyway, it could cause others to lose their health or their lives. Think about others. Your right to go outside does not trump my right to not get sick. It's all about me me me me me and damn the collateral damage that can lead to death. How can you sleep with blood on your hands?
Chill I'm not really going out yet. I just don't want to be stuck inside for like 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:09:52 PM


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:03:53 PM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Perhaps, then, there is a fundamental difference between the way you and I live our lives.

Staying safe is not the goal of my life.  Heck, staying alive isn't even the goal of my life.  I fully expect to die at some point in my life.  That doesn't mean I live recklessly, but it does mean that "is it safe?" isn't the guiding question that controls my decisions.

In 2008, my wife and I decided to take steps towards doing mission work in Mexico.  A couple of months later, escalating cartel violence started making US headlines, and everybody we knew told is it wasn't safe to go to Mexico.  The first year we went (March 2009), my wife's own mother called her "stupid" for taking our one-year-old son to Mexico.  Her grandparents told us that, with any future trips, we shouldn't even tell them we were going until we got back to the USA.  Even today, the US Department of State says of the state we travel to:  "Reconsider Travel ... due to crime.  Violent crime and unpredictable gang activity are common..."  For the first several years, I did research about the safety of travel there.  I obtained detailed data from the Mexican attorney-general's office, downloaded Harvard mathematician-published research papers, looked through FBI crime statistics, made charts and graphs based on my findings, etc.  But all of that was really for the sake of others traveling with us.  It wasn't for our own sake.  We had a call on our lives to serve in Mexico, and it's our belief that one is supposed to follow his or her calling whether it's safe or not.  (I'm trying to avoid overtly religious language.)  Our best friends recently moved to the town we serve in, with our full encouragement and support.  "Is it safe?" is a question that factors into their decisions and ours, but it is far from the most important factor.

When we do go to Mexico, we often do roof demolition.  We destroy the very surface we stand on, sometimes swinging mattocks while balancing on the edge of the wall because there's nowhere else to stand.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  After the work is done, we take the children down the street to the swimming hole.  The water isn't treated, people dump all sorts of stuff into the canal that flows through it, my friend has even seen a turd floating by.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  But we decide to do these things anyway, because they are acts of ministry to the children there.

2 million drivers in the USA suffer permanent injury or disability because of car accidents in any given year.  I personally see or hear car crashes every year, and major wrecks on the highway frequently affect my commute.  But this does not keep me from driving a car.  Is driving safe?  Maybe, maybe not.

More than half a million Americans die from heart disease every year.  I have borderline cholesterol, and heart attacks run in the family.  But these things do not define how I choose what to eat.  I buy high-oleic sunflower oil for cooking applications I used to use lard for, for example, but I'm not about to switch to a raw diet.  Could I be healthier if I became religious about my diet?  Certainly.  But extending my life as long as possible isn't my goal.

If I drop food on the floor, I pick it up and eat it.  Might I get sick from that?  I suppose so.

Back when I didn't have a car, I used to hitchhike.  One week-end, I took Greyhound from Chicago to Menominee (MI), then hitchhiked for two days across and down through Michigan and back to Chicago.  Just for fun, because I wanted to see Michigan.  Was it safe?  Well, who knows? because there are almost no statistics on the safety of hitchhiking.

"Safety" is an illusion anyway.  What will you be looking for?  100% safety?  It doesn't exist.  There are always canaries, if you look hard enough.  When the government does tell us it's "safe", what will that mean anyway?  No risk of infection?  That we can go to the store with zero risk of catching any illness?  That's an impossibility.  We live our lives with a combination of myriad factors, each of which lies somewhere along a continuum of risk.  Focusing on that continuum will leave a person paralyzed, because it's impossible to eliminate all the risk factors.

I'm not about to give up spending time with my friends just because it might be risky.  I'm not about to stop going to the grocery store just because someone might have sneezed nearby at some point earlier in the day.  I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.  If I determine that the risks are great enough to warrant a lifestyle change on my part, then I'll change my behavior.  But, until that time, I'm going to continue living my life as normally as possible under current government and corporate restrictions.  And when those restrictions are lifted, I'll be only too eager to return to normal life.
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

But if you are selfish and go out anyway, it could cause others to lose their health or their lives. Think about others. Your right to go outside does not trump my right to not get sick. It's all about me me me me me and damn the collateral damage that can lead to death. How can you sleep with blood on your hands?
Chill I'm not really going out yet. I just don't want to be stuck inside for like 6 months.

I don't want to be stuck inside either, but I don't want to get sick a lot more. It can would make me very angry if some punk kid gave me COVID-19 because he or she is selfish and careless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:11:08 PM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:09:52 PM


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 11:03:53 PM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 01, 2020, 12:05:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on April 29, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Perhaps, then, there is a fundamental difference between the way you and I live our lives.

Staying safe is not the goal of my life.  Heck, staying alive isn't even the goal of my life.  I fully expect to die at some point in my life.  That doesn't mean I live recklessly, but it does mean that "is it safe?" isn't the guiding question that controls my decisions.

In 2008, my wife and I decided to take steps towards doing mission work in Mexico.  A couple of months later, escalating cartel violence started making US headlines, and everybody we knew told is it wasn't safe to go to Mexico.  The first year we went (March 2009), my wife's own mother called her "stupid" for taking our one-year-old son to Mexico.  Her grandparents told us that, with any future trips, we shouldn't even tell them we were going until we got back to the USA.  Even today, the US Department of State says of the state we travel to:  "Reconsider Travel ... due to crime.  Violent crime and unpredictable gang activity are common..."  For the first several years, I did research about the safety of travel there.  I obtained detailed data from the Mexican attorney-general's office, downloaded Harvard mathematician-published research papers, looked through FBI crime statistics, made charts and graphs based on my findings, etc.  But all of that was really for the sake of others traveling with us.  It wasn't for our own sake.  We had a call on our lives to serve in Mexico, and it's our belief that one is supposed to follow his or her calling whether it's safe or not.  (I'm trying to avoid overtly religious language.)  Our best friends recently moved to the town we serve in, with our full encouragement and support.  "Is it safe?" is a question that factors into their decisions and ours, but it is far from the most important factor.

When we do go to Mexico, we often do roof demolition.  We destroy the very surface we stand on, sometimes swinging mattocks while balancing on the edge of the wall because there's nowhere else to stand.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  After the work is done, we take the children down the street to the swimming hole.  The water isn't treated, people dump all sorts of stuff into the canal that flows through it, my friend has even seen a turd floating by.  Is it safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  But we decide to do these things anyway, because they are acts of ministry to the children there.

2 million drivers in the USA suffer permanent injury or disability because of car accidents in any given year.  I personally see or hear car crashes every year, and major wrecks on the highway frequently affect my commute.  But this does not keep me from driving a car.  Is driving safe?  Maybe, maybe not.

More than half a million Americans die from heart disease every year.  I have borderline cholesterol, and heart attacks run in the family.  But these things do not define how I choose what to eat.  I buy high-oleic sunflower oil for cooking applications I used to use lard for, for example, but I'm not about to switch to a raw diet.  Could I be healthier if I became religious about my diet?  Certainly.  But extending my life as long as possible isn't my goal.

If I drop food on the floor, I pick it up and eat it.  Might I get sick from that?  I suppose so.

Back when I didn't have a car, I used to hitchhike.  One week-end, I took Greyhound from Chicago to Menominee (MI), then hitchhiked for two days across and down through Michigan and back to Chicago.  Just for fun, because I wanted to see Michigan.  Was it safe?  Well, who knows? because there are almost no statistics on the safety of hitchhiking.

"Safety" is an illusion anyway.  What will you be looking for?  100% safety?  It doesn't exist.  There are always canaries, if you look hard enough.  When the government does tell us it's "safe", what will that mean anyway?  No risk of infection?  That we can go to the store with zero risk of catching any illness?  That's an impossibility.  We live our lives with a combination of myriad factors, each of which lies somewhere along a continuum of risk.  Focusing on that continuum will leave a person paralyzed, because it's impossible to eliminate all the risk factors.

I'm not about to give up spending time with my friends just because it might be risky.  I'm not about to stop going to the grocery store just because someone might have sneezed nearby at some point earlier in the day.  I'm not about to wear a mask to walk down the street just because I might pass by someone else.  If I determine that the risks are great enough to warrant a lifestyle change on my part, then I'll change my behavior.  But, until that time, I'm going to continue living my life as normally as possible under current government and corporate restrictions.  And when those restrictions are lifted, I'll be only too eager to return to normal life.
Nicely said. Some risks are a part of life.

But if you are selfish and go out anyway, it could cause others to lose their health or their lives. Think about others. Your right to go outside does not trump my right to not get sick. It's all about me me me me me and damn the collateral damage that can lead to death. How can you sleep with blood on your hands?
Chill I'm not really going out yet. I just don't want to be stuck inside for like 6 months.

I don't want to be stuck inside either, but I don't want to get sick a lot more. It can would make me very angry if some punk kid gave me COVID-19 because he or she is selfish and careless.
So you suggest staying inside until we have a vaccine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:17:07 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:57:12 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 04:55:49 PM
And if it was caused by stress, was it stress over the lockdown?  Or stress over COVID itself?

It was over the lockdown. I actually wasn't that afraid of the virus until the lockdown created all the panic.
I've been struggling with crippling anxiety all my life, but I've never heard of anxiety causing blood clots in the lungs. However, blood clots in the lungs is one of the major symptoms of COVID-19. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 06, 2020, 11:18:53 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 06, 2020, 10:04:49 PM
But... this comes with the pitfall that it creates an incentive for people to travel to regions with looser restrictions in order to do things not allowed where they live. So you need means of preventing people from doing this or you're just going to have people bringing the virus into places that had it more under control.

Sometimes raw distance will do the trick, especially out west. For example, in South Dakota it takes several hours of driving on I-90 (most of which has an 80 mph speed limit) to travel from the state's current meat processing outbreak and related state and local restrictions, to the northwestern counties with no cases at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 07, 2020, 04:15:58 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on May 06, 2020, 11:03:26 PM
The weather forecast for Mother's Day around here is good but Phil Murphy will have ruined it as he did Easter.

This sounds like Phil Murphy is going to, like, personally cause a rainstorm or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 07, 2020, 07:27:30 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.

At a possible chance you might have gotten it, and even then, you'll more likely be among the 75-80% who have no to few symptoms, never even realizing you had it.  If you're among the 20% when get symptoms you can feel, then odds are, you'll stay out of the hospital anyway.  Only if you're among the 0.5-0.8% (and that number may be high, given some of the more recent serology tests), you perish.  It's a number below the 1918 H1N1 flu, and vastly lower than the 1348 Black Plague (which some folks seem to act like this is).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 07, 2020, 07:31:58 AM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on May 06, 2020, 11:03:26 PM
The weather forecast for Mother's Day around here is good but Phil Murphy will have ruined it as he did Easter.

I assume that he plans to continue punishing us over Memorial Day weekend too.

You're not going to be able to take mom out to a restaurant for Mother's Day, but otherwise you can drive around, go to many shore towns, go to most parks, etc.  Cooking for mom is permitted also.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 10:33:59 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 07, 2020, 07:27:30 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.

At a possible chance you might have gotten it, and even then, you'll more likely be among the 75-80% who have no to few symptoms, never even realizing you had it.  If you're among the 20% when get symptoms you can feel, then odds are, you'll stay out of the hospital anyway.  Only if you're among the 0.5-0.8% (and that number may be high, given some of the more recent serology tests), you perish.  It's a number below the 1918 H1N1 flu, and vastly lower than the 1348 Black Plague (which some folks seem to act like this is).
75% have no symptoms? Thought it was 40.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 07, 2020, 10:35:35 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 10:33:59 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 07, 2020, 07:27:30 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.

At a possible chance you might have gotten it, and even then, you'll more likely be among the 75-80% who have no to few symptoms, never even realizing you had it.  If you're among the 20% when get symptoms you can feel, then odds are, you'll stay out of the hospital anyway.  Only if you're among the 0.5-0.8% (and that number may be high, given some of the more recent serology tests), you perish.  It's a number below the 1918 H1N1 flu, and vastly lower than the 1348 Black Plague (which some folks seem to act like this is).
75% have no symptoms? Thought it was 40.

See bolded words.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 07, 2020, 11:03:10 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 07, 2020, 10:35:35 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 10:33:59 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 07, 2020, 07:27:30 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.

At a possible chance you might have gotten it, and even then, you'll more likely be among the 75-80% who have no to few symptoms, never even realizing you had it.  If you're among the 20% when get symptoms you can feel, then odds are, you'll stay out of the hospital anyway.  Only if you're among the 0.5-0.8% (and that number may be high, given some of the more recent serology tests), you perish.  It's a number below the 1918 H1N1 flu, and vastly lower than the 1348 Black Plague (which some folks seem to act like this is).
75% have no symptoms? Thought it was 40.

See bolded words.


Where did you come up with that figure?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:11:19 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 07, 2020, 11:03:10 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 07, 2020, 10:35:35 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 10:33:59 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 07, 2020, 07:27:30 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.

At a possible chance you might have gotten it, and even then, you'll more likely be among the 75-80% who have no to few symptoms, never even realizing you had it.  If you're among the 20% when get symptoms you can feel, then odds are, you'll stay out of the hospital anyway.  Only if you're among the 0.5-0.8% (and that number may be high, given some of the more recent serology tests), you perish.  It's a number below the 1918 H1N1 flu, and vastly lower than the 1348 Black Plague (which some folks seem to act like this is).
75% have no symptoms? Thought it was 40.

See bolded words.


Where did you come up with that figure?
Well, when I looked it up it said that 80% of cases were mild.

Source: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-its-like-to-survive-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 07, 2020, 11:11:35 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
I have to admit, I never realized how much most people eat out until this pandemic.  With the exception of their weekly trip to Proietti's for pizza (usually... sometimes they'll be different and order an entree off the menu), my parents only eat out once in a blue moon.  I eat out even less often... outside of roadtrips, eating out for me is mainly my weekly pizza/wings takeout (my parents have been making their weekly trip for longer than I've been alive; the habit stuck), especially as I view a sit-down restaurant (as opposed to fast food or fast casual) as primarily being a social affair.  Meanwhile, eating out for lunch on work days is both unhealthy and expensive, so I only do it when I'm out in the field rather than in the office.

I assumed everyone was this way.  Given the huge disruptions we had even before outbreaks at meat packing plants, I guess not.



My wife and I used to eat out about three times a week.  We also would eat lunch at the cafeteria at work (we work at the same place) pretty regularly, meaning we often just had a small meal at home after work.  We were running our dishwasher about twice a week pre-pandemic.  We are running it 6 or 7 times now because not only are we at home all of the time, but we are making dinner about five or six nights a week.  Rotating where we order out from the other nights.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 07, 2020, 11:15:44 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:11:19 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 07, 2020, 11:03:10 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 07, 2020, 10:35:35 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 10:33:59 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 07, 2020, 07:27:30 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.
You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.

At a possible chance you might have gotten it, and even then, you'll more likely be among the 75-80% who have no to few symptoms, never even realizing you had it.  If you're among the 20% when get symptoms you can feel, then odds are, you'll stay out of the hospital anyway.  Only if you're among the 0.5-0.8% (and that number may be high, given some of the more recent serology tests), you perish.  It's a number below the 1918 H1N1 flu, and vastly lower than the 1348 Black Plague (which some folks seem to act like this is).
75% have no symptoms? Thought it was 40.

See bolded words.


Where did you come up with that figure?
Well, when I looked it up it said that 80% of cases were mild.

Source: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-its-like-to-survive-covid-19


No, he said 75%-80% with no or few symptoms, "never even realizing you had it."  Where does he come up with the figure that 75-80% never realize they had it?  There is no basis for that assertion at all because that would require that we not only were regularly testing assymptomatic or people with few symptoms, but at a rate four times of those with symptoms.  And we aren't doing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 11:20:58 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:06:39 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 01:15:21 PM
On the other hand, we had the bug guy come to our house yesterday because of an ant problem, and he didn't even wear a mask in our house.

I think you all can assume by now that it didn't bother me.

You might have contacted SARS-COV-2 from that very person. You might be doomed already, you just don't know it yet.

Yep.  I know.  And literally every person who comes into my house on any given day in any given year might transmit a virus to me and my family.  It doesn't paralyze me with fear.




Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 07, 2020, 07:31:58 AM
You're not going to be able to take mom out to a restaurant for Mother's Day, but otherwise you can drive around, go to many shore towns, go to most parks, etc.  Cooking for mom is permitted also.

Not in New Jersey, but I could take my mom to a restaurant on Sunday if I chose to.  I just saw that my local Chili's is open for dine-in business, for example.  But my sister and her husband are coming into town (today?) from Iowa, and we'll be grilling out at my parents' house for Mothers Day.  That's the family tradition every year anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 11:22:48 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM
How can you sleep with blood on your hands?

See Reply #2590.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:29:33 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 11:22:48 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM
How can you sleep with blood on your hands?

See Reply #2590.

We're back on this "blood on your hands"  stuff about "murdering"  people by not staying in? :eyebrow:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:38:24 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:29:33 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 11:22:48 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM
How can you sleep with blood on your hands?

See Reply #2590.

We're back on this "blood on your hands"  stuff about "murdering"  people by not staying in? :eyebrow:
Yes, he called me a "murderer". Excessive maybe Bugo? I'm sleeping fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:57:45 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:38:24 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:29:33 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 11:22:48 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM
How can you sleep with blood on your hands?

See Reply #2590.

We're back on this "blood on your hands"  stuff about "murdering"  people by not staying in? :eyebrow:
Yes, he called me a "murderer". Excessive maybe Bugo? I'm sleeping fine.

Unless you are purposely getting sick with COViD-19 and finding people in health to cough on.  A couple people have said similar things to me because I go to work everyday and have delivered food/supplies to family.  How the conclusion that I'm a "murderer"  by those actions is beyond me but it is an opinion lots seems to share as absurd as it seems...I guess that's an example of "social shaming?"   I sleep okay, maybe a little less since I'm out running the empty streets pretty much everyday now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:58:51 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:57:45 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:38:24 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:29:33 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 11:22:48 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM
How can you sleep with blood on your hands?

See Reply #2590.

We're back on this "blood on your hands"  stuff about "murdering"  people by not staying in? :eyebrow:
Yes, he called me a "murderer". Excessive maybe Bugo? I'm sleeping fine.

Unless you are purposely getting sick with COViD-19 and finding people in health to cough on.  A couple people have said similar things to me because I go to work everyday and have delivered food/supplies to family.  How the conclusion that I'm a "murderer"  by those actions is beyond me but it is an opinion lots seems to share as absurd as it seems.  I sleep okay, maybe a little less since I'm out running the empty streets pretty much everyday now.
I'm practicing social distancing when I take a walk, trying to stay 6 feet apart from people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:02:47 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:58:51 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:57:45 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:38:24 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 11:29:33 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 11:22:48 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:02:41 PM
How can you sleep with blood on your hands?

See Reply #2590.

We're back on this "blood on your hands"  stuff about "murdering"  people by not staying in? :eyebrow:
Yes, he called me a "murderer". Excessive maybe Bugo? I'm sleeping fine.

Unless you are purposely getting sick with COViD-19 and finding people in health to cough on.  A couple people have said similar things to me because I go to work everyday and have delivered food/supplies to family.  How the conclusion that I'm a "murderer"  by those actions is beyond me but it is an opinion lots seems to share as absurd as it seems.  I sleep okay, maybe a little less since I'm out running the empty streets pretty much everyday now.
I'm practicing social distancing when I take a walk, trying to stay 6 feet apart from people.

Usually there isn't anyone even out at 4:30-5 AM in the morning for that to be a problem.  The only people I see are the other runners or cyclists, none of them are new. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 12:03:51 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:58:51 AM
I'm practicing social distancing when I take a walk, trying to stay 6 feet apart from people.

It was never a habit of mine to get within six feet of other people when taking a walk anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 12:14:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:08:04 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:06:29 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 04:05:24 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:03:30 PM
The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

It wasn't coincidental. My heart started racing on March 17 or 18.

I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:09:04 PM
They didn't say how or why it happened.

Quote from: bugo on May 06, 2020, 11:17:07 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 06, 2020, 04:57:12 PM

Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 04:55:49 PM
And if it was caused by stress, was it stress over the lockdown?  Or stress over COVID itself?

It was over the lockdown. I actually wasn't that afraid of the virus until the lockdown created all the panic.

I've been struggling with crippling anxiety all my life, but I've never heard of anxiety causing blood clots in the lungs.

bugo:   Where in that whole conversation did bandit957 claim the blood clot was due to anxiety?  Nowhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Ben114 on May 07, 2020, 12:14:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 12:03:51 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:58:51 AM
I'm practicing social distancing when I take a walk, trying to stay 6 feet apart from people.

It was never a habit of mine to get within six feet of other people when taking a walk anyway.

My dog will pull me at least 10-15 feet away from anyone

(ooh 300 posts)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 07, 2020, 12:16:02 PM
From an anonymous employee at Henry Ford Hospital:

QuoteZero.
For a surgery department — a poor case count. For a supply chain rep — not enough supplies.
Zero is "just a number" that means little to us during our day-to-day lives.
But today "zero" is different.
Today we had zero deaths — and I cried.
Today zero means so much more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:19:29 PM
Quote from: Ben114 on May 07, 2020, 12:14:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 12:03:51 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 11:58:51 AM
I'm practicing social distancing when I take a walk, trying to stay 6 feet apart from people.

It was never a habit of mine to get within six feet of other people when taking a walk anyway.

My dog will pull me at least 10-15 feet away from anyone

(ooh 300 posts)

Usually I go to the other side of the road if possible depending on the size of a dog when I'm running.  Most aren't receptive of having someone flying past them at 8 MPH or will want to chase. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 07, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
The fact is...more people are going to die because of this than before this existed, including people who have higher risk factors (known and unknown).  The fact that we're going to all die someday hasn't changed, it just has changed the potential timeframe.  The opinion is, in some people who are staunchly asserting their rights, it sounds asympathetic and self-absorbed, whether it's intended or not.  But some of the social shaming is going too far in the other direction.

The fact is...we didn't know much about this in Feb, and by March, the level of information and trusted information and misinformation were confusing.  The opinion is...the reaction of what occurred in Italy prompted a reaction that probably saved lives but caused a ton of other issues.

The opinion is...the worst thing we can do is pick an answer that is one extreme (total lockdown) or the other (total wide-open "back-to-normal a/k/a pre-COVID-19" lifestyle).  But how to manage that?  Particularly in a society where if you give an inch, people take a mile?  The ol' question of where do you draw the line?  Of which you can't ever possibly please everyone?   

There's a lot of arm-chair quarterbacking of what "should have been done" through today...too late to change that.  And I wouldn't want to be a governor wrestling with this...it's a no win.  But what to do going forward isn't clear cut, either.  It's a question of balance...of which there isn't a perfect one.

My only wish is that there's some empathy in the fact that bad shit is going to occur no matter what.  And some comments, both sides, seem to miss that.



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 12:26:06 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 07, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
The fact is...more people are going to die because of this than before this existed, including people who have higher risk factors (known and unknown).  The fact that we're going to all die someday hasn't changed, it just has changed the potential timeframe.  The opinion is, in some people who are staunchly asserting their rights, it sounds asympathetic and self-absorbed, whether it's intended or not.  But some of the social shaming is going too far in the other direction.

The fact is...we didn't know much about this in Feb, and by March, the level of information and trusted information and misinformation were confusing.  The opinion is...the reaction of what occurred in Italy prompted a reaction that probably saved lives but caused a ton of other issues.

The opinion is...the worst thing we can do is pick an answer that is one extreme (total lockdown) or the other (total wide-open "back-to-normal a/k/a pre-COVID-19" lifestyle).  But how to manage that?  Particularly in a society where if you give an inch, people take a mile?  The ol' question of where do you draw the line?  Of which you can't ever possibly please everyone?   

There's a lot of arm-chair quarterbacking of what "should have been done" through today...too late to change that.  And I wouldn't want to be a governor wrestling with this...it's a no win.  But what to do going forward isn't clear cut, either.  It's a question of balance...of which there isn't a perfect one.

My only wish is that there's some empathy in the fact that bad shit is going to occur no matter what.  And some comments, both sides, seem to miss that.
I understand that neither side is completely right. Let's just try to get through this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 07, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 07, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
The fact is...more people are going to die because of this than before this existed, including people who have higher risk factors (known and unknown).  The fact that we're going to all die someday hasn't changed, it just has changed the potential timeframe.  The opinion is, in some people who are staunchly asserting their rights, it sounds asympathetic and self-absorbed, whether it's intended or not.  But some of the social shaming is going too far in the other direction.

The fact is...we didn't know much about this in Feb, and by March, the level of information and trusted information and misinformation were confusing.  The opinion is...the reaction of what occurred in Italy prompted a reaction that probably saved lives but caused a ton of other issues.

The opinion is...the worst thing we can do is pick an answer that is one extreme (total lockdown) or the other (total wide-open "back-to-normal a/k/a pre-COVID-19" lifestyle).  But how to manage that?  Particularly in a society where if you give an inch, people take a mile?  The ol' question of where do you draw the line?  Of which you can't ever possibly please everyone?   

There's a lot of arm-chair quarterbacking of what "should have been done" through today...too late to change that.  And I wouldn't want to be a governor wrestling with this...it's a no win.  But what to do going forward isn't clear cut, either.  It's a question of balance...of which there isn't a perfect one.

My only wish is that there's some empathy in the fact that bad shit is going to occur no matter what.  And some comments, both sides, seem to miss that.


I have a bit of a different perspective on this being married to a respiratory therapist. She's experiencing the worst of this every day. It baffles me that people wouldn't do whatever is necessary to reduce the death rate and get this thing over with as soon as possible.

The suggestion that if you go out when you don't need to, you're causing someone to die, is a bit overblown, but perhaps necessarily so in a society where we are so focused on ourselves and our individual rights and have little regard for the collective.

For every x personal contacts made, another person will die from this. That's an irrefutable fact. We don't know the exact value of x because of the lack of testing, and x certainly varies by area based on current infection rates and population density, but every time you go out, you get us to x more quickly.

Everybody is complaining about the government suppressing people's liberties, but the government shouldn't even have to be doing it. It ought to be common sense that we all just do this for the good of everybody.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 12:33:40 PM
If things continue as badly as they did in late March and April (though I know May has been better so far), what kind of life do we really have? There were many times in March and April when I really didn't even want to live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:42:49 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 07, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
The fact is...more people are going to die because of this than before this existed, including people who have higher risk factors (known and unknown).  The fact that we're going to all die someday hasn't changed, it just has changed the potential timeframe.  The opinion is, in some people who are staunchly asserting their rights, it sounds asympathetic and self-absorbed, whether it's intended or not.  But some of the social shaming is going too far in the other direction.

The fact is...we didn't know much about this in Feb, and by March, the level of information and trusted information and misinformation were confusing.  The opinion is...the reaction of what occurred in Italy prompted a reaction that probably saved lives but caused a ton of other issues.

The opinion is...the worst thing we can do is pick an answer that is one extreme (total lockdown) or the other (total wide-open "back-to-normal a/k/a pre-COVID-19" lifestyle).  But how to manage that?  Particularly in a society where if you give an inch, people take a mile?  The ol' question of where do you draw the line?  Of which you can't ever possibly please everyone?   

There's a lot of arm-chair quarterbacking of what "should have been done" through today...too late to change that.  And I wouldn't want to be a governor wrestling with this...it's a no win.  But what to do going forward isn't clear cut, either.  It's a question of balance...of which there isn't a perfect one.

My only wish is that there's some empathy in the fact that bad shit is going to occur no matter what.  And some comments, both sides, seem to miss that.


I have a bit of a different perspective on this being married to a respiratory therapist. She's experiencing the worst of this every day. It baffles me that people wouldn't do whatever is necessary to reduce the death rate and get this thing over with as soon as possible.

The suggestion that if you go out when you don't need to, you're causing someone to die, is a bit overblown, but perhaps necessarily so in a society where we are so focused on ourselves and our individual rights and have little regard for the collective.

For every x personal contacts made, another person will die from this. That's an irrefutable fact. We don't know the exact value of x because of the lack of testing, and x certainly varies by area based on current infection rates and population density, but every time you go out, you get us to x more quickly.

Everybody is complaining about the government suppressing people's liberties, but the government shouldn't even have to be doing it. It ought to be common sense that we all just do this for the good of everybody.

In my case I haven't made one complaint about civil liberties.   My major was in criminal law so that argument about "constitutional infringements"  in most cases is pretty weak most of the time...not always though in some instances.  I do want things to "start"  reopening and I do think at least locally that it is overdue to start the process. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:53:48 PM
Apparently I still have $116 dollars in my wallet left over from when I got home from Mexico.  I don't think that I've had that much money in my wallet for that long (a little over two months) my entire life. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 07, 2020, 01:00:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 06, 2020, 10:13:26 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 06, 2020, 07:54:15 PM
There have been a lot of tiring things during this pandemic, but trying to keep up with this thread has got to be nearing the top of the list...
This is now the most replied to off topic thread by almost 2 times.

Wow, true!! And the runners-up ("Threads You'll Never See on aaroads.com" and "DST 2018") are both locked.

Next in line after that only has 1089 posts. This thread should easily be triple that within a few days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 01:01:55 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 07, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
The fact is...more people are going to die because of this than before this existed, including people who have higher risk factors (known and unknown).  The fact that we're going to all die someday hasn't changed, it just has changed the potential timeframe.  The opinion is, in some people who are staunchly asserting their rights, it sounds asympathetic and self-absorbed, whether it's intended or not.  But some of the social shaming is going too far in the other direction.

The fact is...we didn't know much about this in Feb, and by March, the level of information and trusted information and misinformation were confusing.  The opinion is...the reaction of what occurred in Italy prompted a reaction that probably saved lives but caused a ton of other issues.

The opinion is...the worst thing we can do is pick an answer that is one extreme (total lockdown) or the other (total wide-open "back-to-normal a/k/a pre-COVID-19" lifestyle).  But how to manage that?  Particularly in a society where if you give an inch, people take a mile?  The ol' question of where do you draw the line?  Of which you can't ever possibly please everyone?   

There's a lot of arm-chair quarterbacking of what "should have been done" through today...too late to change that.  And I wouldn't want to be a governor wrestling with this...it's a no win.  But what to do going forward isn't clear cut, either.  It's a question of balance...of which there isn't a perfect one.

My only wish is that there's some empathy in the fact that bad shit is going to occur no matter what.  And some comments, both sides, seem to miss that.


I have a bit of a different perspective on this being married to a respiratory therapist. She's experiencing the worst of this every day. It baffles me that people wouldn't do whatever is necessary to reduce the death rate and get this thing over with as soon as possible.

The suggestion that if you go out when you don't need to, you're causing someone to die, is a bit overblown, but perhaps necessarily so in a society where we are so focused on ourselves and our individual rights and have little regard for the collective.

For every x personal contacts made, another person will die from this. That's an irrefutable fact. We don't know the exact value of x because of the lack of testing, and x certainly varies by area based on current infection rates and population density, but every time you go out, you get us to x more quickly.

Everybody is complaining about the government suppressing people's liberties, but the government shouldn't even have to be doing it. It ought to be common sense that we all just do this for the good of everybody.
I understand, but we can't understate the mental effect of this, as Bandit has stated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 07, 2020, 01:12:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 07, 2020, 01:01:55 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 07, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
The fact is...more people are going to die because of this than before this existed, including people who have higher risk factors (known and unknown).  The fact that we're going to all die someday hasn't changed, it just has changed the potential timeframe.  The opinion is, in some people who are staunchly asserting their rights, it sounds asympathetic and self-absorbed, whether it's intended or not.  But some of the social shaming is going too far in the other direction.

The fact is...we didn't know much about this in Feb, and by March, the level of information and trusted information and misinformation were confusing.  The opinion is...the reaction of what occurred in Italy prompted a reaction that probably saved lives but caused a ton of other issues.

The opinion is...the worst thing we can do is pick an answer that is one extreme (total lockdown) or the other (total wide-open "back-to-normal a/k/a pre-COVID-19" lifestyle).  But how to manage that?  Particularly in a society where if you give an inch, people take a mile?  The ol' question of where do you draw the line?  Of which you can't ever possibly please everyone?   

There's a lot of arm-chair quarterbacking of what "should have been done" through today...too late to change that.  And I wouldn't want to be a governor wrestling with this...it's a no win.  But what to do going forward isn't clear cut, either.  It's a question of balance...of which there isn't a perfect one.

My only wish is that there's some empathy in the fact that bad shit is going to occur no matter what.  And some comments, both sides, seem to miss that.


I have a bit of a different perspective on this being married to a respiratory therapist. She's experiencing the worst of this every day. It baffles me that people wouldn't do whatever is necessary to reduce the death rate and get this thing over with as soon as possible.

The suggestion that if you go out when you don't need to, you're causing someone to die, is a bit overblown, but perhaps necessarily so in a society where we are so focused on ourselves and our individual rights and have little regard for the collective.

For every x personal contacts made, another person will die from this. That's an irrefutable fact. We don't know the exact value of x because of the lack of testing, and x certainly varies by area based on current infection rates and population density, but every time you go out, you get us to x more quickly.

Everybody is complaining about the government suppressing people's liberties, but the government shouldn't even have to be doing it. It ought to be common sense that we all just do this for the good of everybody.
I understand, but we can't understate the mental effect of this, as Bandit has stated.

There are a lot of ways people could have/can mitigate the mental/emotional impact of being locked down.  I have a cousin who lives by himself and he and another single friend decided to go stay with a 3rd friend for the past two months.  It's better for them emotionally plus it helps as now only one of them has to go out for groceries, etc.

If actually staying somewhere away from home isn't feasible because of having to care for your home and/or pets, other people have formed "lockdown groups" where a few households have banded together and visited only each other during this time.  It's technically violating stay at home orders but doing so in a way that limits risk exposure as nobody from the group was going out to be in contact with other people.  Think of it as just merging a few households into one big one and still isolating that household from others.

There are plenty of hobbies that can be adjusted to the circumstances.  I like to play poker.  Casinos are closed, but a lot of the online poker sites support private games, so I've been playing poker 4-5 nights per week with friends.  A lot of people connect socially by chatting on zoom while watching the same TV shows.

I'm not going to speak to any one person's circumstances, but a lot of people let a bunch of garbage posted on Facebook affect their emotional state way too much and getting all upset rather than trying to find a way to deal with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 01:17:31 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 07, 2020, 12:21:10 PM
There's a lot of arm-chair quarterbacking of what "should have been done" through today...too late to change that.

Actually, I personally haven't been hearing a whole terrible lot of back-and-forth about what should have been done in the past, and that's been refreshing.  Almost all the back-and-forth I hear has been about what to do moving forward.  I think most people understand that decisions were, by and large, made "in the dark", so to speak, and they understand the governing authorities' decisions even if they don't agree with them.

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
Everybody is complaining about the government suppressing people's liberties, but the government shouldn't even have to be doing it. It ought to be common sense that we all just do this for the good of everybody.

Yes, this is true.  I'd even add that it ought to be common sense for businesses to do it as well.  It's just that the definition of the "it" people should be doing isn't universally agreed upon.  But you are correct that people should not flaunt their political views by putting others at risk.

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 01:12:40 PM
There are a lot of ways people could have/can mitigate the mental/emotional impact of being locked down.  I have a cousin who lives by himself and he and another single friend decided to go stay with a 3rd friend for the past two months.  It's better for them emotionally plus it helps as now only one of them has to go out for groceries, etc.

If actually staying somewhere away from home isn't feasible because of having to care for your home and/or pets, other people have formed "lockdown groups" where a few households have banded together and visited only each other during this time.  It's technically violating stay at home orders but doing so in a way that limits risk exposure as nobody from the group was going out to be in contact with other people.  Think of it as just merging a few households into one big one and still isolating that household from others.

There are plenty of hobbies that can be adjusted to the circumstances.  I like to play poker.  Casinos are closed, but a lot of the online poker sites support private games, so I've been playing poker 4-5 nights per week with friends.  A lot of people connect socially by chatting on zoom while watching the same TV shows.

I'm not going to speak to any one person's circumstances, but a lot of people let a bunch of garbage posted on Facebook affect their emotional state way too much and getting all upset rather than trying to find a way to deal with it.

The fact that there are ways to mitigate the problem doesn't negate the fact that people are being affected.  It's just one step away from saying it's their own fault if they're not coping well, because they should be doing x-y-z.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 07, 2020, 01:26:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 01:17:31 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 01:12:40 PM
There are a lot of ways people could have/can mitigate the mental/emotional impact of being locked down.  I have a cousin who lives by himself and he and another single friend decided to go stay with a 3rd friend for the past two months.  It's better for them emotionally plus it helps as now only one of them has to go out for groceries, etc.

If actually staying somewhere away from home isn't feasible because of having to care for your home and/or pets, other people have formed "lockdown groups" where a few households have banded together and visited only each other during this time.  It's technically violating stay at home orders but doing so in a way that limits risk exposure as nobody from the group was going out to be in contact with other people.  Think of it as just merging a few households into one big one and still isolating that household from others.

There are plenty of hobbies that can be adjusted to the circumstances.  I like to play poker.  Casinos are closed, but a lot of the online poker sites support private games, so I've been playing poker 4-5 nights per week with friends.  A lot of people connect socially by chatting on zoom while watching the same TV shows.

I'm not going to speak to any one person's circumstances, but a lot of people let a bunch of garbage posted on Facebook affect their emotional state way too much and getting all upset rather than trying to find a way to deal with it.

The fact that there are ways to mitigate the problem doesn't negate the fact that people are being affected.  It's just one step away from saying it's their own fault if they're not coping well, because they should be doing x-y-z.

As I noted, everybody's circumstances are different, but a lot of what I'm seeing is people demanding that lockdowns be lifted because it's affecting them negatively as opposed to trying to find a different way of dealing with it. To a certain extent it is your fault if you aren't willing to try something outside your normal routine in order to mitigate your emotional state.  Also, to a certain extent it's the responsibility of all of us to try to help friends and family members who are struggling.  I only know my cousin went to stay with a friend because I called him to check on him, knowing that he lived alone and is an extrovert.  On the other hand I have a sister who lives alone but is an extreme introvert and I don't have to worry about her because she's having the time of her life not having to be around anybody.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 01:55:02 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 01:26:46 PM
On the other hand I have a sister who lives alone but is an extreme introvert and I don't have to worry about her because she's having the time of her life not having to be around anybody.

The danger is an introvert who is nonetheless not doing well.  I worry there are those who are struggling but hesitant to reach out and confess that to anyone.

Without seeing people in person and chatting, it's very easy right now to forget–not to forget about everyone else, but to forget about someone else.  You know, people "falling through the cracks".  That happens as part of our normal life routine but, when there's nobody else around you mentioning someone's name for weeks at a time, it's easy to forget they even exist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 07, 2020, 01:56:19 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 01:26:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 01:17:31 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on May 07, 2020, 01:12:40 PM
There are a lot of ways people could have/can mitigate the mental/emotional impact of being locked down.  I have a cousin who lives by himself and he and another single friend decided to go stay with a 3rd friend for the past two months.  It's better for them emotionally plus it helps as now only one of them has to go out for groceries, etc.

If actually staying somewhere away from home isn't feasible because of having to care for your home and/or pets, other people have formed "lockdown groups" where a few households have banded together and visited only each other during this time.  It's technically violating stay at home orders but doing so in a way that limits risk exposure as nobody from the group was going out to be in contact with other people.  Think of it as just merging a few households into one big one and still isolating that household from others.

There are plenty of hobbies that can be adjusted to the circumstances.  I like to play poker.  Casinos are closed, but a lot of the online poker sites support private games, so I've been playing poker 4-5 nights per week with friends.  A lot of people connect socially by chatting on zoom while watching the same TV shows.

I'm not going to speak to any one person's circumstances, but a lot of people let a bunch of garbage posted on Facebook affect their emotional state way too much and getting all upset rather than trying to find a way to deal with it.

The fact that there are ways to mitigate the problem doesn't negate the fact that people are being affected.  It's just one step away from saying it's their own fault if they're not coping well, because they should be doing x-y-z.

As I noted, everybody's circumstances are different, but a lot of what I'm seeing is people demanding that lockdowns be lifted because it's affecting them negatively as opposed to trying to find a different way of dealing with it. To a certain extent it is your fault if you aren't willing to try something outside your normal routine in order to mitigate your emotional state.  Also, to a certain extent it's the responsibility of all of us to try to help friends and family members who are struggling.  I only know my cousin went to stay with a friend because I called him to check on him, knowing that he lived alone and is an extrovert.  On the other hand I have a sister who lives alone but is an extreme introvert and I don't have to worry about her because she's having the time of her life not having to be around anybody.

It is pretty hard to manage the uncertainty of job and income loss.
I, for one, is also very concerned about the future of the country and the entire world. Keeping myself busy with remote work (only that efficient for my job) and home maintenance goes only that far when I am waiting for things to turn to the worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 07, 2020, 02:19:13 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 07:31:05 PM
California has been plateauing despite the virus hitting a huge hot spot in Los Angeles County.  Take that one county out of the picture and trends become far more positive.  San Francisco and the Bay Area are barely even registering any new cases.  That's a large reason why so many counties here are splitting from the Governor and doing their own thing with phased reopening.  The issue for many is 1/4 of the state population in a relatively small area has been driving healthy policy state wide.  Granted the entire top 5 counties with cases are all from SoCal now.

The bolded part could also apply to a few other states, such as Illinois (91% of cases in Chicagoland) and Michigan (74% of cases in the Detroit metro area; the Upper Peninsula has less than 100 total cases (and four counties with zero cases) and the counties with the highest caseloads in northern Lower Michigan have had nursing home outbreaks)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 07, 2020, 02:22:38 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 06, 2020, 01:58:02 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 05, 2020, 01:59:41 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 05, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
Of course, I have an allergy to heavy-handed government overreach, so that's my medical condition that will preclude my wearing a mask in public.

If that's the excuse you give to the cops when you're driving 80 mph in a 25 mph residential zone while snorting crack cocaine off a naked hooker in a convertible, then maybe that's reasonable.  But if you're just have opinions about it, then that's not an illness, and it takes away from those that do have true issues.

If your employer has said that you can work from home, have you protested saying that the government is overreaching and you demand to go into the office every day?
+1 & funny


iPhone

When the idea of telecommuting was first floated, I said I didn't mind continuing to go in to the office every day. But there are advantages to working from home. I'm saving on gas and wear & tear on my car. Plus saving on water since I don't have to shower or do laundry as often. And the biggest advantage is being able to get up at 7:55 to go on the clock at 8, and not having to get up a lot earlier to shower and undertake a 45-minute drive. 6:30 wakeups are going to be hard to get used to when we resume a normal schedule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 02:25:33 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 07, 2020, 02:19:13 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 07:31:05 PM
California has been plateauing despite the virus hitting a huge hot spot in Los Angeles County.  Take that one county out of the picture and trends become far more positive.  San Francisco and the Bay Area are barely even registering any new cases.  That's a large reason why so many counties here are splitting from the Governor and doing their own thing with phased reopening.  The issue for many is 1/4 of the state population in a relatively small area has been driving healthy policy state wide.  Granted the entire top 5 counties with cases are all from SoCal now.

The bolded part could also apply to a few other states, such as Illinois (91% of cases in Chicagoland) and Michigan (74% of cases in the Detroit metro area; the Upper Peninsula has less than 100 total cases (and four counties with zero cases) and the counties with the highest caseloads in northern Lower Michigan have had nursing home outbreaks)

As a former resident of Michigan I don't understand why rules for the Lower Peninsula (especially Metro Detroit) would be universal to the Upper Peninsula.  Similar to California there is a massive geographic break which also happens to be far from the population centers.  I haven't kept up on everything that has been going in Michigan but what I have seen regarding how aggressive the protests have been is kind of surprising.  Granted I know things like Union Strikes and picket rallies have always been common in Michigan...and really most of the Blue Collar Midwest.  The guys with long guns in Lansing was something of a surprise, I thought most of those Michigan-Militia types went the way of the Dodo by now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 02:35:31 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 07, 2020, 02:19:13 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 07:31:05 PM
California has been plateauing despite the virus hitting a huge hot spot in Los Angeles County.  Take that one county out of the picture and trends become far more positive.  San Francisco and the Bay Area are barely even registering any new cases.  That's a large reason why so many counties here are splitting from the Governor and doing their own thing with phased reopening.  The issue for many is 1/4 of the state population in a relatively small area has been driving healthy policy state wide.  Granted the entire top 5 counties with cases are all from SoCal now.

The bolded part could also apply to a few other states, such as Illinois (91% of cases in Chicagoland) and Michigan (74% of cases in the Detroit metro area; the Upper Peninsula has less than 100 total cases (and four counties with zero cases) and the counties with the highest caseloads in northern Lower Michigan have had nursing home outbreaks)

I believe this is why the Kansas governor put off a statewide order for as long as she did.  She was leaving things up to the individual counties for as long as reasonable.




Quote from: hbelkins on May 07, 2020, 02:22:38 PM
And the biggest advantage is being able to get up at 7:55 to go on the clock at 8

I made this .gif two weeks ago.

(https://i.imgur.com/MODZkV0.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 02:49:56 PM
What is interesting with California is the local governments were the ones dictating the lock downs first.  The six Bay Area Counties locked up before the state and several cities (including Fresno) followed suit.  Interestingly a lot of those early counties and locales are still enacting some of the strictest polices despite evidence they can proceed with beginning the reopening process. 

What's frustrating locally is the City of Fresno has been far stricter than neighboring Clovis or even Fresno County.  Fresno County and Clovis essentially deferred to the State to enforce order, the latter just rescinded their local order.  As of today Fresno has put a policy regarding masks in public places into effect that is vaguely worded.  The mayor even went out of his way to keep it purposely vague and stated that it wouldn't "be enforced"  on streets or sidewalks.  So essentially the way I take that is that even I'm out and about in the process of exercise at 4:30 AM in the City Limits I'm supposed to "wear"  a mask.  But if I go 800 feet from front door into unincorporated Fresno County I can yank that thing off since the State doesn't have such a mask order.  And people wonder why we go to Sanger to do all our shopping as of late...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 07, 2020, 02:50:57 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 06, 2020, 12:59:26 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 06, 2020, 11:47:45 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 06, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.
One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...

Meanwhile, we still had Kentucky counties with double-digit unemployment rates even before all this started. There are plenty of American citizens who are available to work. I still don't understand the need to import workers, especially illegal aliens, when there are citizens who'd love to have a job.

The problem is that most Americans who have an established footprint in the work force don't want to work at Meat Processing facilities, Harvesting Facilities, farms, or even ranches for what those jobs pay.  I suspect that even the current pandemic has done little to change that mindset towards pay in those industries.  If the wages of the work force increased the costs just get pushed down the roads to consumers who will complain. 

Interestingly given that there is a such a large agricultural foot print here in Central California it seems to be the primary reason this part of the State has been so active.  Pretty all those ranches and farms were deemed essential from the get-go. Much of the yields are being wasted right now because there isn't enough restaurant demand which led to an over supply.  I've found it easier through much of the pandemic just to order groceries from places like Denny's over going to the grocery store.  Driving around the sticks looking for fruit and vegetable stands has been also practical.

I've always contended that we make it too easy for people not to work. Tobacco is not really an economic engine for Kentucky anymore, but 20 years ago it was. Every year in the fall, there would be an influx of migrant workers into tobacco-growing counties in central Kentucky. And the horse industry (racing, breeding, etc.) is dependent on migrant workers. I hesitate to say "illegal aliens," but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the majority of them aren't here legally.

Magoffin County is a 90-minute drive from Lexington, at the end of the Mountain Parkway. It consistently has the highest unemployment rate in the state. Yet somehow it's easier for people there to draw UI benefits than it is for them to go to work. I've always said that instead of allowing so many in Magoffin to draw unemployment -- which we pay for through tax dollars and employer contributions that would otherwise go into employees' paychecks -- they should run vans every day from Salyersville to the horse farms around Lexington. If you're able to work and don't take one of those available jobs, you don't get to draw UI.

A news story made the rounds a couple of weeks ago about the business owner who got one of the Paycheck Protection loans to keep on paying her employees, and she became a pariah to her employees because they were able to make more on unemployment (including the extra $600 per week) than they would if they were working. That just doesn't seem right.

I was surprised to read a few years ago of an ICE raid at a business; I think it may have been a meat processing plant; in NE Tennessee near Kingsport. Kingsport is a regional hub of an area that extends as far north as Pikeville, Ky. The stories of coal's decline are widespread. East Tennessee doesn't mine a lot of coal, but southwestern Virginia and southeastern Kentucky used to.  Yet that facility had to employ illegal aliens because area residents would rather not work and draw UI benefits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on May 07, 2020, 02:53:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 02:35:31 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 07, 2020, 02:19:13 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 06, 2020, 07:31:05 PM
California has been plateauing despite the virus hitting a huge hot spot in Los Angeles County.  Take that one county out of the picture and trends become far more positive.  San Francisco and the Bay Area are barely even registering any new cases.  That's a large reason why so many counties here are splitting from the Governor and doing their own thing with phased reopening.  The issue for many is 1/4 of the state population in a relatively small area has been driving healthy policy state wide.  Granted the entire top 5 counties with cases are all from SoCal now.

The bolded part could also apply to a few other states, such as Illinois (91% of cases in Chicagoland) and Michigan (74% of cases in the Detroit metro area; the Upper Peninsula has less than 100 total cases (and four counties with zero cases) and the counties with the highest caseloads in northern Lower Michigan have had nursing home outbreaks)

I believe this is why the Kansas governor put off a statewide order for as long as she did.  She was leaving things up to the individual counties for as long as reasonable.





That's also why I'm glad we DON'T have a nationwide direction on any of this like some of the talking heads online like to bash our federal govt. for. What makes sense for one area is totally ludicrous for another in terms of lockdown.  It's different for different states, and even within a state, it's different from the urban areas than it should for the rural ones.  It's all about reducing the number of contact points between folks, and that's the status quo anyway for some rural areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 03:14:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 02:49:56 PM
What is interesting with California is the local governments were the ones dictating the lock downs first.  The six Bay Area Counties locked up before the state and several cities (including Fresno) followed suit.  Interestingly a lot of those early counties and locales are still enacting some of the strictest polices despite evidence they can proceed with beginning the reopening process. 

In general, this makes sense to me.  The earliest and hardest-hit areas would naturally be the first to issue orders, and the state would naturally want to give other areas with far less impact the freedom to enforce less stringent measures.  Then, it would be natural for the hardest hit areas to be the most skeptical about a green light to re-open.

Perfectly normal, if you ask me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 03:47:44 PM
I was thinking about this today.  Other than while I was hitchhiking, I can only think of two times I've had interaction with any police officer while I was a pedestrian.  The first was when a Glen Ellyn (IL) officer accosted me for walking across Roosevelt Road while the red hand was flashing.  I had sat down on a bench to wait for my bus, and he pulled into the parking lot behind me to chew me out.  The second was the day after it had snowed a large amount in Wheaton (IL), and I was walking down President Street with a suitcase toward the Metra station, about a mile away from it at that point.  The officer stopped and offered me a ride to the station.  Other than that, the police have always just ignored me as a pedestrian (unless also hitchhiking).

Quote from: kphoger on May 03, 2020, 09:00:40 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on May 03, 2020, 12:00:31 PM
I haven't yet dug into the law for either Kansas or New York. 

It's pretty standard for the Vehicle Code to require walking on the left side.

Quote from: Uniform Vehicle Code, Millennium Edition, Chapter 11, Article V, Section 6
S 11-506-Pedestrians on highways

(a) Where a sidewalk is provided and its use is practicable, it shall be unlawful for any pedestrian to walk along and upon an adjacent roadway.

(b) Where a sidewalk is not available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk only on the shoulder, as far as practicable from the edge of the roadway.

(c) Where neither a sidewalk nor a shoulder is available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk as near as practicable to an outside edge of the roadway, and if on a two-way roadway, shall walk only on the left side of the roadway.

(d) Except as otherwise provided in this chapter, any pedestrian upon a roadway shall yield the right of way to all vehicles upon the roadway.

Quote from: Kansas Statutes, Chapter 8, Article 15, Section 37
8-1537. Same; use of roadways.

(a) Where a sidewalk is provided and its use is practicable, it shall be unlawful for any pedestrian to walk along and upon an adjacent roadway.

(b) Where a sidewalk is not available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk only on a shoulder, as far as practicable from the edge of the roadway.

(c) Where neither a sidewalk nor a shoulder is available, any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall walk as near as practicable to an outside edge of the roadway, and, if on a two-way roadway, shall walk only on the left side of the roadway.

(d) Except as otherwise provided in this article, any pedestrian upon a roadway shall yield the right-of-way to all vehicles upon the roadway.

Quote from: New York State Consolidated Laws, Title 7, Article 27, Section 1156
§ 1156. Pedestrians on roadways.

(a) Where sidewalks are provided and they may be used with safety it shall be unlawful for any pedestrian to walk along and upon an adjacent roadway.

(b) Where sidewalks are not provided any pedestrian walking along and upon a highway shall when practicable walk only on the left side of the roadway or its shoulder facing traffic which may approach from the opposite direction.  Upon the approach of any vehicle from the opposite direction, such pedestrian shall move as far to the left as is practicable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: catch22 on May 07, 2020, 04:02:41 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 01:50:39 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 01:09:33 PM
That's not what I'm hearing from our church (United Methodist).  Both our Michigan Bishop and the Wisconsin Bishop have similar reopening plans.

You start slowly - first only 10 people.  This would be your pastor, worship leaders, key musicians, probably a tech person, etc.  This mean you go from streaming mostly recorded services to streaming live services (for those churches that have an online presence).

Then 50 people, then 100.  This is where it gets sticky - how do you determine which group of 50 or 100 members can come any given Sunday?

It's for that reason that our church leadership has decided on a later re-opening date rather than an earlier one.  Here in Kansas, the restrictions will relax to be no more than 90 in attendance.  Our church just doesn't see how to re-open for worship and still keep under that threshold, so we'll simply wait until the limitation of 90 also elapses.  I suppose one solution would be to go to two services instead of one service, but–at least for our congregation–that would require a HECK of a lot of re-organization of staff, and we likely wouldn't even have enough people willing and able to fill the spots.


Here in Michigan, our church is working out what to do.  One proposal is to begin at some future date, as safety and state edicts allow, having our small groups gather in one place to watch our online service and have fellowship time afterwards, with the eventual goal of gradually having larger and larger groups meeting until such time as it's safe to all meet in the same building as before.

We did the math, and there's no way to get more than 75 people in our worship space following social distance guidelines. We normally have two services and each has an attendance somewhere around 185 to 200.  Even going to three services won't work, even without considering the staffing and logistic issues.  And, what to do with the children's program?  No way to social distance that.  That's still being worked on.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 04:16:10 PM
Quote from: catch22 on May 07, 2020, 04:02:41 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 01:50:39 PM

Quote from: GaryV on May 06, 2020, 01:09:33 PM
That's not what I'm hearing from our church (United Methodist).  Both our Michigan Bishop and the Wisconsin Bishop have similar reopening plans.

You start slowly - first only 10 people.  This would be your pastor, worship leaders, key musicians, probably a tech person, etc.  This mean you go from streaming mostly recorded services to streaming live services (for those churches that have an online presence).

Then 50 people, then 100.  This is where it gets sticky - how do you determine which group of 50 or 100 members can come any given Sunday?

It's for that reason that our church leadership has decided on a later re-opening date rather than an earlier one.  Here in Kansas, the restrictions will relax to be no more than 90 in attendance.  Our church just doesn't see how to re-open for worship and still keep under that threshold, so we'll simply wait until the limitation of 90 also elapses.  I suppose one solution would be to go to two services instead of one service, but–at least for our congregation–that would require a HECK of a lot of re-organization of staff, and we likely wouldn't even have enough people willing and able to fill the spots.

Here in Michigan, our church is working out what to do.  One proposal is to begin at some future date, as safety and state edicts allow, having our small groups gather in one place to watch our online service and have fellowship time afterwards, with the eventual goal of gradually having larger and larger groups meeting until such time as it's safe to all meet in the same building as before.

We did the math, and there's no way to get more than 75 people in our worship space following social distance guidelines. We normally have two services and each has an attendance somewhere around 185 to 200.  Even going to three services won't work, even without considering the staffing and logistic issues.  And, what to do with the children's program?  No way to social distance that.  That's still being worked on.

I haven't heard yet what the plan is for small groups, but I assume they'll get the green light as soon as the ten-person group limit order is lifted.  The small group my wife and I are personally a part of had considered disobeying the order and resuming to meet again already.  One member suggested it, I could go either way, but the other family has been very cautious and wouldn't go for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:34:29 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has had a higher death rate than the U.S.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sweden-different-coronavirus-approaches-both-could-cause-deaths-2020-5
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:34:29 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has had a higher death rate than the U.S.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sweden-different-coronavirus-approaches-both-could-cause-deaths-2020-5

Sweden automatically counts nursing home deaths as coronavirus deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:40:20 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:34:29 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has had a higher death rate than the U.S.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sweden-different-coronavirus-approaches-both-could-cause-deaths-2020-5

Sweden automatically counts nursing home deaths as coronavirus deaths.
Says who?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 04:41:54 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:40:20 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:35:46 PM

Quote from: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:34:29 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has had a higher death rate than the U.S.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sweden-different-coronavirus-approaches-both-could-cause-deaths-2020-5

Sweden automatically counts nursing home deaths as coronavirus deaths.

Says who?

Even if that's not quite true, a very large portion of Sweden's outbreaks have been in nursing homes.  I'm not really sure how much lockdowns would have prevented that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:45:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 04:41:54 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:40:20 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:35:46 PM

Quote from: Rothman on May 07, 2020, 04:34:29 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has had a higher death rate than the U.S.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sweden-different-coronavirus-approaches-both-could-cause-deaths-2020-5

Sweden automatically counts nursing home deaths as coronavirus deaths.

Says who?

Even if that's not quite true, a very large portion of Sweden's outbreaks have been in nursing homes.  I'm not really sure how much lockdowns would have prevented that.
Well, visitors staying home rather than bringing the virus into the nursing home would have helped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 07, 2020, 04:49:17 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:53:48 PM
Apparently I still have $116 dollars in my wallet left over from when I got home from Mexico.  I don't think that I've had that much money in my wallet for that long (a little over two months) my entire life. 

I have the opposite experience. I usually get $100 out of my check in $10 bills to spend on smaller purchases or whenever I visit small businesses so they don't have to incur credit card fees. Since mid-March, however, it's been all plastic all the time (mostly online, but for groceries too). I even went ahead and rolled up the contents of my change jar and deposited it, since it wasn't doing me any good just sitting at home.

Once things get back to normal, I'll go back to using cash, but if I had it right now, it'd be sitting around like your $116.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 05:20:09 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 07, 2020, 04:49:17 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:53:48 PM
Apparently I still have $116 dollars in my wallet left over from when I got home from Mexico.  I don't think that I've had that much money in my wallet for that long (a little over two months) my entire life. 

I have the opposite experience. I usually get $100 out of my check in $10 bills to spend on smaller purchases or whenever I visit small businesses so they don't have to incur credit card fees. Since mid-March, however, it's been all plastic all the time (mostly online, but for groceries too). I even went ahead and rolled up the contents of my change jar and deposited it, since it wasn't doing me any good just sitting at home.

Once things get back to normal, I'll go back to using cash, but if I had it right now, it'd be sitting around like your $116.

I would have burned through it awhile back paying cash at small gas stations and food stands on day trips.  Even before the lock down stuff happened I was just packing my own lunch for the day and it just sat there.  Now pretty much the only business I frequent that wants cash still is a local car wash/detailer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 06:23:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 05:20:09 PM
I would have burned through it awhile back paying cash at small gas stations and food stands on day trips.  Even before the lock down stuff happened I was just packing my own lunch for the day and it just sat there.  Now pretty much the only business I frequent that wants cash still is a local car wash/detailer.

There are basically only two times we spend cash these days.

First, tipping carhops at Sonic.  My usual rule is that I only tip them if they have to make a second trip to the car.  But, these days, I tip them no matter what, because I value their service more and I'm sure they're really glad to even have a job right now.

Second, buying avocados at the local Mexican grocery store.  It's a small operation that probably has a very slim profit margin.  They have a minimum limit on credit/debit card transactions, but I pay cash no matter what because, even if I'm over the limit, it isn't by much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 06:32:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 07, 2020, 06:23:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 05:20:09 PM
I would have burned through it awhile back paying cash at small gas stations and food stands on day trips.  Even before the lock down stuff happened I was just packing my own lunch for the day and it just sat there.  Now pretty much the only business I frequent that wants cash still is a local car wash/detailer.

There are basically only two times we spend cash these days.

First, tipping carhops at Sonic.  My usual rule is that I only tip them if they have to make a second trip to the car.  But, these days, I tip them no matter what, because I value their service more and I'm sure they're really glad to even have a job right now.

Second, buying avocados at the local Mexican grocery store.  It's a small operation that probably has a very slim profit margin.  They have a minimum limit on credit/debit card transactions, but I pay cash no matter what because, even if I'm over the limit, it isn't by much.

Speaking of local Mexican markets, that might be an idea for the bike ride tomorrow.  They are cash only and I could go for some tacos.  Same thing though, they can't afford the credit merchant fees.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 06:07:18 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 07, 2020, 04:49:17 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:53:48 PM
Apparently I still have $116 dollars in my wallet left over from when I got home from Mexico.  I don't think that I've had that much money in my wallet for that long (a little over two months) my entire life. 

I have the opposite experience. I usually get $100 out of my check in $10 bills to spend on smaller purchases or whenever I visit small businesses so they don't have to incur credit card fees. Since mid-March, however, it's been all plastic all the time (mostly online, but for groceries too). I even went ahead and rolled up the contents of my change jar and deposited it, since it wasn't doing me any good just sitting at home.

Once things get back to normal, I'll go back to using cash, but if I had it right now, it'd be sitting around like your $116.


Many small businesses prefer to incur the fees versus handling the cash.  Friend of mine who opens a small microbrew says that credit fees are worth it because it is much easier to account and deposit into your account.  She said they are going cashless when this is done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 08, 2020, 06:59:39 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 06:07:18 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 07, 2020, 04:49:17 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 07, 2020, 12:53:48 PM
Apparently I still have $116 dollars in my wallet left over from when I got home from Mexico.  I don't think that I've had that much money in my wallet for that long (a little over two months) my entire life. 

I have the opposite experience. I usually get $100 out of my check in $10 bills to spend on smaller purchases or whenever I visit small businesses so they don't have to incur credit card fees. Since mid-March, however, it's been all plastic all the time (mostly online, but for groceries too). I even went ahead and rolled up the contents of my change jar and deposited it, since it wasn't doing me any good just sitting at home.

Once things get back to normal, I'll go back to using cash, but if I had it right now, it'd be sitting around like your $116.


Many small businesses prefer to incur the fees versus handling the cash.  Friend of mine who opens a small microbrew says that credit fees are worth it because it is much easier to account and deposit into your account.  She said they are going cashless when this is done.

I feel like it very much depends on the business, what they do, and the preferences of the owner. My day job has been in an all-cash business for the last 10 years, so I'm very comfortable handling the accounting of cash when I do so as a business owner. Cash works just fine if you can clearly demarcate which employee is responsible for it and who will be held accountable in the case of a shortage. That means that each register can be used by one and only one employee–no taking over someone else's drawer while they're on break or any funny business like that. Any time cash is transferred from the custody of one person to another the amount has to be verified by both of them and agreed to in writing.

Not all businesses have the luxury of having the time and manpower to enact such strict controls, though, so cash doesn't work so well in those businesses. My comfort level with cash is high enough, and my margins low enough, that I'd prefer to claw back the dollar and change I pay in CC fees on each transaction if at all possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 08:05:43 AM
I read something interesting a few days ago. Scientists at Arizona State University did a study that says this virus is mutating in the same way SARS did, thus making it far less deadly. This is occurring at the same point SARS died out.

Viruses have to adapt, and in order to do this, they need living hosts who are out and about. They cannot continue to kill people. This is how pandemics die out. The virus will still be out there, but it basically joins all the less lethal viruses out there.

I thought way back in March this would happen sooner or later, just because of the way viruses adapt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 08:33:46 AM
Countries like Luxembourg, Australia, South Korea, Israel, Austria, and Switzerland have had big outbreaks of the virus but have since contained it.  Countries like Egypt, Pakistan, Mexico, India, Brazil, and Russia are still experiencing near exponential growth of the virus.

(https://i.imgur.com/fsHdp0Z.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Brazil&location=Egypt&location=India&location=Mexico&location=Pakistan&location=Russia&doublingtime=3

(https://i.imgur.com/hchX2ZG.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Australia&location=Austria&location=Israel&location=Luxembourg&location=South+Korea&location=Switzerland&doublingtime=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 08:44:50 AM
^There is also a 3rd group of countries that have diverted from the exponential growth curve but are now just treading water and not seeing a steep drop in new cases.  The US, UK, Canada, Singapore, Indonesia, and Finland fall into this category.  If you watch that interactive graph, Singapore seemed like they had control of the virus only to see a spike in new cases and they jumped back on to that exponential wave and got hit hard again.

(https://i.imgur.com/llsBrYo.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=Finland&location=Indonesia&location=Singapore&location=US&location=United+Kingdom&doublingtime=3

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 08:49:58 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 08:05:43 AM
I read something interesting a few days ago. Scientists at Arizona State University did a study that says this virus is mutating in the same way SARS did, thus making it far less deadly. This is occurring at the same point SARS died out.

Viruses have to adapt, and in order to do this, they need living hosts who are out and about. They cannot continue to kill people. This is how pandemics die out. The virus will still be out there, but it basically joins all the less lethal viruses out there.

I thought way back in March this would happen sooner or later, just because of the way viruses adapt.


This virus is nowhere near as deadly as SARS and spreads much easier because people can be assymptomatic longer.  It is obviously mutating.  Everything does.  But my guess is that it won't be mutating much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 08, 2020, 09:31:52 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 08:49:58 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 08:05:43 AM
I read something interesting a few days ago. Scientists at Arizona State University did a study that says this virus is mutating in the same way SARS did, thus making it far less deadly. This is occurring at the same point SARS died out.

Viruses have to adapt, and in order to do this, they need living hosts who are out and about. They cannot continue to kill people. This is how pandemics die out. The virus will still be out there, but it basically joins all the less lethal viruses out there.

I thought way back in March this would happen sooner or later, just because of the way viruses adapt.


This virus is nowhere near as deadly as SARS and spreads much easier because people can be assymptomatic longer.  It is obviously mutating.  Everything does.  But my guess is that it won't be mutating much.

I think some of the reason it's not as deadly is because of the shutting down of offices and restaurants and such. Doing this with everything, even the flu, would reduce the illnesses and deaths. Heck, even sunburn would be reduced, as you would be home and could easily go back inside if you're in the yard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 10:09:13 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 08:49:58 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 08:05:43 AM
I read something interesting a few days ago. Scientists at Arizona State University did a study that says this virus is mutating in the same way SARS did, thus making it far less deadly. This is occurring at the same point SARS died out.

Viruses have to adapt, and in order to do this, they need living hosts who are out and about. They cannot continue to kill people. This is how pandemics die out. The virus will still be out there, but it basically joins all the less lethal viruses out there.

I thought way back in March this would happen sooner or later, just because of the way viruses adapt.



This virus is nowhere near as deadly as SARS and spreads much easier because people can be assymptomatic longer.  It is obviously mutating.  Everything does.  But my guess is that it won't be mutating much.

there is plenty of mutating, Bedford's site keeps track of those.
Recently there was a paper about one of mutations which seemingly occurred in Europe sometime in early February, and which made the virus more contagious: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1
US has about 20% of that mutation in circulation. A thread from Bedford's twitter discussing the issue (and he seems to be not so sure about the effect): https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825352660877313
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 08, 2020, 10:11:57 AM
I think most of Singapore's recent cases are from overcrowded migrant housing, where people live on top of each other with not the best sanitary procedures
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
In Kansas, as we unwind restrictions, we are seeing cases take off in prisons, care facilities, and at meatpacking plants.  Nobody is saying anything about the possibility that these will function as incubators for renewed community spread.

Although it is to become legal for us to visit hair salons beginning on May 18, two days ago I gave myself an all-around number-one haircut, effectively shaving my head.  This is a measure of my confidence that policy is on the correct trajectory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 08, 2020, 12:03:08 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
In Kansas, as we unwind restrictions, we are seeing cases take off in prisons, care facilities, and at meatpacking plants.  Nobody is saying anything about the possibility that these will function as incubators for renewed community spread.

Although it is to become legal for us to visit hair salons beginning on May 18, two days ago I gave myself an all-around number-one haircut, effectively shaving my head.  This is a measure of my confidence that policy is on the correct trajectory.

Heh, my wife helped me with a 4 and 2 the other day.  I've actually cut hair enough to know basic military style cuts so it worked out with a $40 dollar hair trimmer.  Some towns like Parlier and Coalinga have given the go ahead to reopen hair places but the state hasn't.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 12:10:20 PM
I, for one, could care less about haircuts. I upgraded from 2 per year to 3 per year a few years back; and I had a much shorter than usual haircut in February (by mistake, or it was just a very visionary barber?). My plan was to have next one in August... I have some time to see how things would work out!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 12:31:01 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
Although it is to become legal for us to visit hair salons beginning on May 18, two days ago I gave myself an all-around number-one haircut, effectively shaving my head.  This is a measure of my confidence that policy is on the correct trajectory.

Before we went to Mexico in March, my wife figured she'd better schedule a hair appointment.  The two available dates were (1) the day we'd be driving through Texas on the way south or (2) after we got back.  Obviously, she chose option 2.  Shortly after we returned from Mexico, all hair salons were shut down as non-essential business.  So she's now two months overdue on a haircut.  It's driving her nuts, and I'm sick of her hair clogging up the shower drain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 12:40:34 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
In Kansas, as we unwind restrictions, we are seeing cases take off in prisons, care facilities, and at meatpacking plants.  Nobody is saying anything about the possibility that these will function as incubators for renewed community spread.

Although it is to become legal for us to visit hair salons beginning on May 18, two days ago I gave myself an all-around number-one haircut, effectively shaving my head.  This is a measure of my confidence that policy is on the correct trajectory.

Kansas and Nebraska appear to have the highest infection rates for states with population densities below 50 people per square mile:
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=Alaska&location=Idaho&location=Kansas&location=Maine&location=Montana&location=Nebraska&location=Nevada&location=New+Mexico&location=North+Dakota&location=Oregon&location=South+Dakota&location=Utah&location=Wyoming&doublingtime=3

Here is the same graph looking at states with population densities greater than 250 people per square mile: 
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=Connecticut&location=Delaware&location=Florida&location=Maryland&location=Massachusetts&location=New+Jersey&location=New+York&location=Ohio&location=Pennsylvania&location=Rhode+Island&doublingtime=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 12:51:33 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 12:40:34 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
In Kansas, as we unwind restrictions, we are seeing cases take off in prisons, care facilities, and at meatpacking plants.  Nobody is saying anything about the possibility that these will function as incubators for renewed community spread.

Although it is to become legal for us to visit hair salons beginning on May 18, two days ago I gave myself an all-around number-one haircut, effectively shaving my head.  This is a measure of my confidence that policy is on the correct trajectory.

Kansas and Nebraska appear to have the highest infection rates for states with population densities below 50 people per square mile:
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=Alaska&location=Idaho&location=Kansas&location=Maine&location=Montana&location=Nebraska&location=Nevada&location=New+Mexico&location=North+Dakota&location=Oregon&location=South+Dakota&location=Utah&location=Wyoming&doublingtime=3

Here is the same graph looking at states with population densities greater than 250 people per square mile: 
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=Connecticut&location=Delaware&location=Florida&location=Maryland&location=Massachusetts&location=New+Jersey&location=New+York&location=Ohio&location=Pennsylvania&location=Rhode+Island&doublingtime=3

Yes, I've been thinking the timing is strange for Kansas.  We downward trend started trending back upwards three weeks ago.  Maybe things were already in motion politically by then, I don't know.

But anyway, I just got the call that I'm back in the office starting Monday morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:18:23 PM
Quote from: Ben114 on May 07, 2020, 12:14:43 PM
My dog will pull me at least 10-15 feet away from anyone

(ooh 300 posts)

My dog will try to pull me 10-15 millimeters toward anyone!  :sombrero:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin).

Isn't "leveling off" what the lockdown is trying to do? I thought the object of lockdown wasn't exactly to cut down on the number of cases, but to lessen the severity of each case by giving the hospitals more time to care for each patient, and not to overload our hospitals with new patients really quickly, like what happened in NYC and in Italy.

All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 01:54:43 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin).

Isn't "leveling off" what the lockdown is trying to do? I thought the object of lockdown wasn't exactly to cut down on the number of cases, but to lessen the severity of each case by giving the hospitals more time to care for each patient, and not to overload our hospitals with new patients really quickly, like what happened in NYC and in Italy.

All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I assume people were looking at how CHina managed to arrest their spread and take things under control - and assumed same thing would happen elsewhere. Besides, Johnson and Johnson promised vaccinations would begin in April..
By now, it is probably safe to assume that things will keep spreading until we reach 70%+ for herd immunity.  That is about 2 million deaths in US.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 01:57:34 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM

Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin).

Isn't "leveling off" what the lockdown is trying to do? I thought the object of lockdown wasn't exactly to cut down on the number of cases, but to lessen the severity of each case by giving the hospitals more time to care for each patient, and not to overload our hospitals with new patients really quickly, like what happened in NYC and in Italy.

All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.

The graph that tradephoric and I are looking at isn't merely measuring total cases, but rather rate of change in new cases.  So, when I say 'downward' or 'upward' trend, it's not about total cases per time period.  There can be a downward trend in this sense, even though total cases continue to rise:  they would just be rising at a slower rate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 02:10:17 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 01:57:34 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM

Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin).

Isn't "leveling off" what the lockdown is trying to do? I thought the object of lockdown wasn't exactly to cut down on the number of cases, but to lessen the severity of each case by giving the hospitals more time to care for each patient, and not to overload our hospitals with new patients really quickly, like what happened in NYC and in Italy.

All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.

The graph that tradephoric and I are looking at isn't merely measuring total cases, but rather rate of change in new cases.  So, when I say 'downward' or 'upward' trend, it's not about total cases per time period.  There can be a downward trend in this sense, even though total cases continue to rise:  they would just be rising at a slower rate.

Ok, thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 08, 2020, 02:13:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 01:54:43 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin).

Isn't "leveling off" what the lockdown is trying to do? I thought the object of lockdown wasn't exactly to cut down on the number of cases, but to lessen the severity of each case by giving the hospitals more time to care for each patient, and not to overload our hospitals with new patients really quickly, like what happened in NYC and in Italy.

All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I assume people were looking at how CHina managed to arrest their spread and take things under control - and assumed same thing would happen elsewhere. Besides, Johnson and Johnson promised vaccinations would begin in April..
By now, it is probably safe to assume that things will keep spreading until we reach 70%+ for herd immunity.  That is about 2 million deaths in US.   

China arrested their spread basically by arresting their citizens if they dared walked outside.  In the US, we have a significantly less restrictive policy, up to and including encouraging people to go outside and walk around.

Did J&J really promise vaccines by April?  I never heard that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 02:15:56 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 06, 2020, 05:05:24 PM

Quote from: vdeane on May 06, 2020, 04:58:57 PM

Quote from: qguy on May 06, 2020, 03:48:50 PM
In either event, the curve was flattened. The thing about flattening the curve, though, is that it doesn't save lives. Flattening the curve merely lengthens it. IOW the area under the curve stays about the same. So we'll eventually see the same number of deaths from COVID than if we had done nothing, but across a longer time span.

False, false, false.  If the hospitals are overwhelmed, that means they can't treat everyone.  If someone gets the disease (or has something else that sends them to a hospital) and can't get treated because the hospital has no more capacity or equipment to treat them, then they die.  So yes, it did save lives.  This isn't just a hypothetical - it actually happened in Italy, where some people were left to die just because they were old or had certain conditions.  NYC was ready to tell EMTs that if a person who called 911 couldn't be stabilized right where they were to leave them to die.

Correct.

Geometrically speaking, the area under the curve could be the same either way, but in the real world there are other factors to affect the area under the curve that change with the shape of the curve.

The pertinent question, however, is how many people's lives are being saved by the hospitals' not being overrun.  That is perhaps a question we'll never know the answer to.

I realized yesterday that this was not quite an accurate answer, or at least not a complete one.

To say that "flattening the curve" doesn't save lives is to assume that the death rate is a simple function of the total number of cases.  That is to say, if the virus has a 1% death rate, then 1% of the people who contract it will die, and that it doesn't matter when they get it.

However, this is not true in the real world.  Recovery from the virus depends to a substantial degree on the availability of health care.

In the illustration below, the area under each curve represents the total number of people who get the virus.  You are correct that "flattening the curve" won't necessarily change the area under the curve (i.e., how many people get the virus).  But it does increase the likelihood that those who do get the virus receive the required medical care.  The area highlighted in gold are those people who have a higher chance of dying due to an overrun health care system.  "Flattening the curve" makes that area smaller to nonexistent, therefore the total number of people who die is smaller even if the total number of infections is not.

(https://i.imgur.com/iqx8Sll.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 02:38:16 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 12:31:01 PMBefore we went to Mexico in March, my wife figured she'd better schedule a hair appointment.  The two available dates were (1) the day we'd be driving through Texas on the way south or (2) after we got back.  Obviously, she chose option 2.  Shortly after we returned from Mexico, all hair salons were shut down as non-essential business.  So she's now two months overdue on a haircut.  It's driving her nuts, and I'm sick of her hair clogging up the shower drain.

Have you explored DIY options?  I was reluctant to take a chance on a salon appointment because I was several weeks overdue (last haircut was on February 26 and I try not to go more than eight weeks without one) and long hair can aggravate traction alopecia.

Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 12:51:33 PM
Yes, I've been thinking the timing is strange for Kansas.  We downward trend started trending back upwards three weeks ago.  Maybe things were already in motion politically by then, I don't know.

The numbers in Kansas are so unbelievably noisy it is hard to get an accurate picture of trends.  Because we had our first confirmed cases late and locked down early, the daily death numbers are small and lumpy (what statisticians call a "small-numbers problem").  With nursing home and meatpacking plant outbreaks in the picture, the underlying mortality rate fluctuates in time since the virus varies in how it samples the age structure (care home residents are mostly older with comorbidities while meatpackers are young).  Before outbreaks were detected in the meatpacking plants in western Kansas, day-to-day numbers were lumpy owing to capacity constraints in the KDHE lab, forcing some counties (including ours) to resort to commercial labs with multi-day turnover.  We were also struggling to get test kits and were applying strict test criteria, though our ratio of positive cases to tests performed was about 10%.  Then, after it became evident to the feds that outbreaks in the plants threatened about 20%-30% of the US meat supply, all of a sudden we had test kits (a large share of which were Abbott Laboratories kits offering rapid if less reliable results) that can be used only in the counties where those plants are located.  So now we can see things go to hell in western Kansas virtually in real time, ratcheting up our positive-cases percentage, while we have less clarity as to what is happening in the more densely populated parts of the state.

I think there is a good chance we will end up crashing back into lockdown when it is time for us to decide whether to transition to a less restrictive phase.  Here is why I think so:

*  I don't think we know just how bad the situation is in the meatpacking counties.  People don't work in meat plants because they have a lot of financial headroom, so their capacity to maintain social distancing away from work is limited.  I expect to see family clusters at least, if not out-and-out community spread.

*  Western Kansas has few medical resources of its own.  Wichita is the main medical provider for the area, meaning that when meatpacking cases hit ICUs, the explosion will happen here, not in Dodge City or Garden City.  Western Kansas cases taking up ICU beds means no capacity to handle local cases if the virus takes off due to relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions in Sedgwick County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 02:40:30 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.

This graphic sums up my argument about Kansas (and many other states) that have been under extended lock downs even while there is excess capacity in their healthcare systems.  Maybe governors believe they can squash the virus and push cases to near zero if they keep extending the lock downs (and then begin aggressive contact tracing for any cases that pop up), but looking at what's actually happening that appears to be wishful thinking.  By the way i'm not trying to pick on Kansas... you could just as easily replace Kansas with California in the graphic.

(https://i.imgur.com/MBOF7p4.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 02:41:35 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 08, 2020, 02:13:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 01:54:43 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin).

Isn't "leveling off" what the lockdown is trying to do? I thought the object of lockdown wasn't exactly to cut down on the number of cases, but to lessen the severity of each case by giving the hospitals more time to care for each patient, and not to overload our hospitals with new patients really quickly, like what happened in NYC and in Italy.

All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I assume people were looking at how CHina managed to arrest their spread and take things under control - and assumed same thing would happen elsewhere. Besides, Johnson and Johnson promised vaccinations would begin in April..
By now, it is probably safe to assume that things will keep spreading until we reach 70%+ for herd immunity.  That is about 2 million deaths in US.   

China arrested their spread basically by arresting their citizens if they dared walked outside.  In the US, we have a significantly less restrictive policy, up to and including encouraging people to go outside and walk around.

Did J&J really promise vaccines by April?  I never heard that one.
Looking at older news, I guess I misunderstood things - this is the best I can find: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/us-fast-tracks-coronavirus-vaccine-hopes-to-start-trial-in-three-months.html
I believe J&J were the ones behind the timeline, but this is the closest to what I remember: https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/coronavirus-vaccine-candidates-include-vaccines-inovio-moderna-and-vaccitech
Trials are actually ongoing, but I didn't hear about the success of those.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 08, 2020, 02:42:28 PM
My wife has been cutting my hair for five years or so. I have psoriasis on the back of my head, so I try to keep it cut short to allow air and sunlight to get to my scalp and to keep my sweat from aggravating it (if I sweat a lot, it tends to cause me to scratch the spots.) I just let her take a #1 guard and cut my whole head to that length. I'm not losing a lot of hair to male pattern baldness, but the combination of me going gray and keeping my hair short makes me look bald sometimes. Plus, it's a whole lot easier to take care of. The closure of barber shops and salons has not impacted me at all. I quit using professionals due to financial reasons, as well as  time constraints. I didn't want to take off work to go get my hair cut, Saturdays tend to be crowded at barber shops, and I'd found myself driving an hour on Sunday morning to a Smart Style in Walmart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 02:40:30 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.

This graphic sums up my argument about Kansas (and many other states) that have been under extended lock downs even while there is excess capacity in their healthcare systems.  Maybe governors believe they can squash the virus and push cases to near zero if they keep extending the lock downs (and then begin aggressive contact tracing for any cases that pop up), but looking at what's actually happening that appears to be wishful thinking.  By the way i'm not trying to pick on Kansas... you could just as easily replace Kansas with California in the graphic.

(https://i.imgur.com/MBOF7p4.png)
Now just push "healthcare system capacity" line way down to get a more accurate picture.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 02:51:27 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 02:38:16 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 12:31:01 PM
Before we went to Mexico in March, my wife figured she'd better schedule a hair appointment.  The two available dates were (1) the day we'd be driving through Texas on the way south or (2) after we got back.  Obviously, she chose option 2.  Shortly after we returned from Mexico, all hair salons were shut down as non-essential business.  So she's now two months overdue on a haircut.  It's driving her nuts, and I'm sick of her hair clogging up the shower drain.

Have you explored DIY options?  I was reluctant to take a chance on a salon appointment because I was several weeks overdue (last haircut was on February 26 and I try not to go more than eight weeks without one) and long hair can aggravate traction alopecia.

My wife cuts my hair and has for years.  I think the last time I went to a barber for a haircut was probably twelve years ago.

I took my three sons to the barber just shortly before leaving for Mexico, so their hair isn't too terribly long yet.

But there's no way my wife is letting me cut her hair.  I've joked with her about it, but it's a big NO.  I tell her I could just get the right size of mixing bowl and my electric clippers...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on May 08, 2020, 03:01:26 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 02:51:27 PM

But there's no way my wife is letting me cut her hair.  I've joked with her about it, but it's a big NO.  I tell her I could just get the right size of mixing bowl and my electric clippers...

Sounds like you have a death wish.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 03:01:54 PM
I just cut my hair myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 03:03:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 02:51:27 PMBut there's no way my wife is letting me cut her hair.  I've joked with her about it, but it's a big NO.  I tell her I could just get the right size of mixing bowl and my electric clippers...

Yes--I figured you were probably dealing with a hard No.

I do have a friend who wears her hair long and had her husband cut it very short on the lower sides and back so it would be a little more visually pleasing and easier to deal with.  She says that was successful.  But when she asked their two kids beforehand if she should ask him to give her a trim, the reaction was something like "No!  No!  Don't do it!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 03:06:18 PM
I just read on WLWT's site that the local city of Ludlow, Ky., is no longer going to enforce social distancing rules at its city parks, including the basketball courts. The police posted on Twitter that they don't want people calling and complaining about people not social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 03:20:46 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 03:03:37 PM
But when she asked their two kids beforehand if she should ask him to give her a trim, the reaction was something like "No!  No!  Don't do it!"

Kids are affected by small changes in appearance like that, though.

Just yesterday, I trimmed by beard down to a #1 all over (with the grain).  In the recent past, I've been keeping it at a #1.5 or #2, with the bottom kept longer.  I knew she'd like it because she's been egging me for a while to cut it shorter.  But, when we asked my eldest son what he thought, he said he liked it long better, then specifically said "I'm just not used to it".

I know a man whose own child wouldn't let him into the house after he'd shaved his beard off.  The kid didn't even recognize his own father, thought he was a stranger trying to break in, and refused to open the door.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on May 08, 2020, 06:25:37 PM
I'm clean-shaven on the face but am kind of enjoying being a little shaggy up top.  It's something different.  In college I went 6 months between haircuts so it's a little throwback.  It has been about 3.5 months this time and the hair doesn't grow at the rate it did 40 years ago, so not out of control. Nevada's governor is allowing haircut places to open with some restrictions tomorrow, but I'll let the initial rush pass before I go in.

I've often thought it would also be different to go for a total clean shave up top just to try it out, but living above 6000 feet elevation the sun exposure issues (or cold exposure issues in winter) have dictated against that idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 06:42:58 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 08, 2020, 09:31:52 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 08:49:58 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 08:05:43 AM
I read something interesting a few days ago. Scientists at Arizona State University did a study that says this virus is mutating in the same way SARS did, thus making it far less deadly. This is occurring at the same point SARS died out.

Viruses have to adapt, and in order to do this, they need living hosts who are out and about. They cannot continue to kill people. This is how pandemics die out. The virus will still be out there, but it basically joins all the less lethal viruses out there.

I thought way back in March this would happen sooner or later, just because of the way viruses adapt.


This virus is nowhere near as deadly as SARS and spreads much easier because people can be assymptomatic longer.  It is obviously mutating.  Everything does.  But my guess is that it won't be mutating much.

I think some of the reason it's not as deadly is because of the shutting down of offices and restaurants and such. Doing this with everything, even the flu, would reduce the illnesses and deaths. Heck, even sunburn would be reduced, as you would be home and could easily go back inside if you're in the yard.


SARS had a 9% mortality rate.  Even with no mitigation, no way does COVID-19 reach that high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 08, 2020, 06:45:44 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 08, 2020, 06:25:37 PM
I'm clean-shaven on the face but am kind of enjoying being a little shaggy up top.  It's something different.  In college I went 6 months between haircuts so it's a little throwback.  It has been about 3.5 months this time and the hair doesn't grow at the rate it did 40 years ago, so not out of control. Nevada's governor is allowing haircut places to open with some restrictions tomorrow, but I'll let the initial rush pass before I go in.

I've often thought it would also be different to go for a total clean shave up top just to try it out, but living above 6000 feet elevation the sun exposure issues (or cold exposure issues in winter) have dictated against that idea.

I have the opposite problem down here in San Joaquin Valley with the temperature lapping 100F today.  Usually I keep my hair as short as possible during the summer months so all that nasty excess hair doesn't become an issue out running and hiking in the heat.  When I lived in Phoenix I had my hair at a constant buzz cut length.  My wife wasn't pleased I didn't want my hair longer but for me it's a practicality thing over how it looks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 08, 2020, 06:57:21 PM
I had my last haircut during the first week of March from my usual barber (all the way down in Seattle). His business had already been declining because people didn't want an Asian person touching their heads, apparently.

I'm considering just shaving as much as I can. This weekend, we're heating up to the low 80s and it's going to be hard with my longer hair.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 08, 2020, 07:48:11 PM
I last had a haircut in February. I am growing a bit of a mustache, so I will need to start shaving soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 08, 2020, 07:53:03 PM
Two B-2 stealth bombers flew over Springfield's National Ave (it has the region's two largest hospitals along it) and I live not too far from one of them.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200508/c9714083b77485181c7bbe5e5d0132c7.jpg)

SM-G965U

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 08, 2020, 08:31:31 PM
I haven't cut my hair since 2017, so not having access to a barber isn't really affecting me much. I can trim off split ends myself if I feel the need to.

Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 08, 2020, 07:53:03 PM
Two B-2 stealth bombers flew over Springfield's National Ave (it has the region's two largest hospitals along it) and I live not too far from one of them.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200508/c9714083b77485181c7bbe5e5d0132c7.jpg)

That's not very stealthy of them, is it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 08, 2020, 08:56:29 PM
Culver's rolls out their plan for reopening dining rooms, but saying it's ultimately up to each franchise owner to decide when they're ready.

https://www.culvers.com/coronavirus-update
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 09, 2020, 07:37:41 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 08, 2020, 08:56:29 PM
Culver's rolls out their plan for reopening dining rooms, but saying it's ultimately up to each franchise owner to decide when they're ready.

https://www.culvers.com/coronavirus-update


Went to the local Culvers last night.  About 15 cars in the parking lot calling in orders.  About 15 more in the drive through.  I got through in about 20 minutes.  Order was accurate.  Food was hot and good.  They had a nice system down and it worked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 09, 2020, 08:25:11 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html)

What takes precedence in this case? The fact that they're sovereign nations with a right to restrict movements on their lands, or the SD DOT maintained highways?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 08:34:35 AM
I'm still befuddled what a "questionnaire"  is supposed to accomplish.  Unless someone was visibly showing signs of a fever, why would they even answer truthfully if they didn't meet the criteria in the questionnaire?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 09, 2020, 08:49:56 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html)

The Sioux tribes have been unhappy with the Governor, too (part of a generally rocky relationship with the state governments of both Dakotas). The Oglala Sioux tribe put out the unwelcome mat for her (I think it wasn't this year), when she indicated she wanted to visit their reservation.

The South Dakota health department website states that there have been a total of two cases (out of over 3000 statewide) in the three counties where the two Sioux tribes with checkpoints are located. Most of the 169 cases among Native Americans in the state are in other tribes' reservations (some closer to the state's current hotspot in the Sioux Falls area than the checkpointing tribes, both west of the Missouri River), or off-reservation. Reasonable that the checkpointing tribes (which have stay-at-home orders for their members) want to keep their case counts down, but restricting or prohibiting through travel on US and state highways crossing the reservations seems excessive.

I crossed both reservations last year, on US 18 and US 212.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 09, 2020, 09:04:11 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 09, 2020, 08:25:11 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html)

What takes precedence in this case? The fact that they're sovereign nations with a right to restrict movements on their lands, or the SD DOT maintained highways?

The Bureau of Indian Affairs told them they can restrict travel on tribal roads. US and state highways passing through the reservations are another story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/0de91ccb5ee2000833f4cd813a23e3ac.jpg)


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 09, 2020, 12:37:51 PM
ADA rights do not include the right to put others' health and lives at risk, so businesses still have the right to refuse entry to someone no matter how fancy they've made their sign.

At most, someone would be entitled to after-hours shopping, free delivery, or something of the sort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 12:46:01 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/0de91ccb5ee2000833f4cd813a23e3ac.jpg)


iPhone

That's suspiciously home brew, where was that posted at?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 09, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
^ See https://www.truthorfiction.com/covid-19-hipaa-face-mask-exemption-passes/ for a discussion (leading to a "Not True" rating) of a similar sign.

As noted above, any required "reasonable accommodation" of a disability precluding face mask wearing could include denying entry to a business (or, for an employee, sending the person home on unpaid leave) until the disability or the pandemic goes away.

A rule requiring mask wearing in public places outdoors, with nobody else nearby, might be a different story. But how many jurisdictions have such a rule?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 09, 2020, 12:55:07 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 09, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
^ See https://www.truthorfiction.com/covid-19-hipaa-face-mask-exemption-passes/ for a discussion (leading to a "Not True" rating) of a similar sign.

As noted above, any required "reasonable accommodation" of a disability precluding face mask wearing could include denying entry to a business (or, for an employee, sending the person home on unpaid leave) until the disability or the pandemic goes away.

A rule requiring mask wearing in public places outdoors, with nobody else nearby, might be a different story. But how many jurisdictions have such a rule?

A few towns in Massachusetts have done so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 09, 2020, 12:59:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 09, 2020, 12:55:07 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 09, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
^ See https://www.truthorfiction.com/covid-19-hipaa-face-mask-exemption-passes/ for a discussion (leading to a "Not True" rating) of a similar sign.

As noted above, any required "reasonable accommodation" of a disability precluding face mask wearing could include denying entry to a business (or, for an employee, sending the person home on unpaid leave) until the disability or the pandemic goes away.

A rule requiring mask wearing in public places outdoors, with nobody else nearby, might be a different story. But how many jurisdictions have such a rule?

A few towns in Massachusetts have done so.
A better question is how they are going to enforce that if mask is readily available and is worn by the time of enforcement effort?
And having mask handy is much weaker and pretty reasonable requirement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:11:07 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 09, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
^ See https://www.truthorfiction.com/covid-19-hipaa-face-mask-exemption-passes/ for a discussion (leading to a "Not True" rating) of a similar sign.

As noted above, any required "reasonable accommodation" of a disability precluding face mask wearing could include denying entry to a business (or, for an employee, sending the person home on unpaid leave) until the disability or the pandemic goes away.

A rule requiring mask wearing in public places outdoors, with nobody else nearby, might be a different story. But how many jurisdictions have such a rule?

Apparently Fresno does under the wording of "Public Spaces."   But then again when the mayor made the announcement he also stated officers wouldn't be enforcing it per se if someone was walking or exercising alone outside.  It kind of felt like the City didn't think that one through or is just taking the gambit on the vague wording will ensure maximum compliance. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 01:30:35 PM
Riverside and San Bernardino counties in California just repealed mask rules. I don't think they applied outdoors anyway.

Who wears masks outdoors? It would be easier to just blow a huge bubble with bubble gum that busts all over your face.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:37:53 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 01:30:35 PM
Riverside and San Bernardino counties in California just repealed mask rules. I don't think they applied outdoors anyway.

Who wears masks outdoors? It would be easier to just blow a huge bubble with bubble gum that busts all over your face.

I don't unless I'm about to go into a building.  If Fresno hadn't made it mandatory I probably wouldn't be wearing one at all...unless a store required it.  Supposedly my gym plans to reopen but with a requirement for people to wear masks, that will be interesting. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 12:46:01 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/0de91ccb5ee2000833f4cd813a23e3ac.jpg)


iPhone

That's suspiciously home brew, where was that posted at?
Found it on Instagram from a very known retired vet/cop that isn't afraid to speak his mind (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/22aba842aa3a7bd5babd123443a5fd12.jpg)


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Heh...He looks like a bag of fun, or at wants to antagonize as many people as possible.  My brother is running around doing stuff like that right now all over social media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 01:49:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Heh...He looks like a bag of fun, or at wants to antagonize as many people as possible.  My brother is running around doing stuff like that right now all over social media.
In terms of what he speaks about he has good points, in other cases ehh not so much.

I notice alot of people are getting tired of mask wearing. Even though you only have to wear them indoors or areas with alot of people.

We could start concerts back up. Everyone just has yo wear a face mask!


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 01:53:05 PM
I'm tired of the national media insisting that whether or not a person wears a mask is a symbol of their political views. My own practices on this (and the practices of other folks I know) contradict what they claim.

It's really a matter of whether it's realistic to wear one depending on what activity you're engaged in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on May 09, 2020, 01:53:37 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 09, 2020, 12:37:51 PM
ADA rights do not include the right to put others' health and lives at risk, so businesses still have the right to refuse entry to someone no matter how fancy they've made their sign.

At most, someone would be entitled to after-hours shopping, free delivery, or something of the sort.

Are you a robot?  You've said this so many times before on this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 09, 2020, 01:54:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 09, 2020, 12:59:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 09, 2020, 12:55:07 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 09, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
^ See https://www.truthorfiction.com/covid-19-hipaa-face-mask-exemption-passes/ for a discussion (leading to a "Not True" rating) of a similar sign.

As noted above, any required "reasonable accommodation" of a disability precluding face mask wearing could include denying entry to a business (or, for an employee, sending the person home on unpaid leave) until the disability or the pandemic goes away.

A rule requiring mask wearing in public places outdoors, with nobody else nearby, might be a different story. But how many jurisdictions have such a rule?

A few towns in Massachusetts have done so.
A better question is how they are going to enforce that if mask is readily available and is worn by the time of enforcement effort?
And having mask handy is much weaker and pretty reasonable requirement.

Why would you have a mask handy and available if your argument is that it poses a mental or physical risk to you?

Now you just lied about your ADA excuse not to wear a mask, and are in violation for not wearing a mask.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 01:49:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Heh...He looks like a bag of fun, or at wants to antagonize as many people as possible.  My brother is running around doing stuff like that right now all over social media.
In terms of what he speaks about he has good points, in other cases ehh not so much.

I notice alot of people are getting tired of mask wearing. Even though you only have to wear them indoors or areas with alot of people.

We could start concerts back up. Everyone just has yo wear a face mask!


iPhone

The problem with guys like that is that any good points they actually make get buried quickly by an avalanche of inane ranting.  That's kind of how my brother's manifesto on COVID-19 was.  He made actually several good points but went off the deep end about not "trusting scientists and the government"  in a conspiratorial sense. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 09, 2020, 02:23:56 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 09, 2020, 01:54:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 09, 2020, 12:59:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 09, 2020, 12:55:07 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 09, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
^ See https://www.truthorfiction.com/covid-19-hipaa-face-mask-exemption-passes/ for a discussion (leading to a "Not True" rating) of a similar sign.

As noted above, any required "reasonable accommodation" of a disability precluding face mask wearing could include denying entry to a business (or, for an employee, sending the person home on unpaid leave) until the disability or the pandemic goes away.

A rule requiring mask wearing in public places outdoors, with nobody else nearby, might be a different story. But how many jurisdictions have such a rule?

A few towns in Massachusetts have done so.
A better question is how they are going to enforce that if mask is readily available and is worn by the time of enforcement effort?
And having mask handy is much weaker and pretty reasonable requirement.

Why would you have a mask handy and available if your argument is that it poses a mental or physical risk to you?

Now you just lied about your ADA excuse not to wear a mask, and are in violation for not wearing a mask.
Two different things are messed up here.
ADA approach (and I am withholding my opinion on that) , and
Requirement to wear mask outdoors - IMHO unnecessary when people are far away, but it is wise to have a mask handy in case someone comes close - including an enforcement official
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 02:35:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 01:49:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Heh...He looks like a bag of fun, or at wants to antagonize as many people as possible.  My brother is running around doing stuff like that right now all over social media.
In terms of what he speaks about he has good points, in other cases ehh not so much.

I notice alot of people are getting tired of mask wearing. Even though you only have to wear them indoors or areas with alot of people.

We could start concerts back up. Everyone just has yo wear a face mask!


iPhone

The problem with guys like that is that any good points they actually make get buried quickly by an avalanche of inane ranting.  That's kind of how my brother's manifesto on COVID-19 was.  He made actually several good points but went off the deep end about not "trusting scientists and the government"  in a conspiratorial sense.
100% its the ranting & dismissal of science that makes them sound crazy.

I understand science has good & bad. But so does everything else in life.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:47:59 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 02:35:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 01:49:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Heh...He looks like a bag of fun, or at wants to antagonize as many people as possible.  My brother is running around doing stuff like that right now all over social media.
In terms of what he speaks about he has good points, in other cases ehh not so much.

I notice alot of people are getting tired of mask wearing. Even though you only have to wear them indoors or areas with alot of people.

We could start concerts back up. Everyone just has yo wear a face mask!


iPhone

The problem with guys like that is that any good points they actually make get buried quickly by an avalanche of inane ranting.  That's kind of how my brother's manifesto on COVID-19 was.  He made actually several good points but went off the deep end about not "trusting scientists and the government"  in a conspiratorial sense.
100% its the ranting & dismissal of science that makes them sound crazy.

I understand science has good & bad. But so does everything else in life.


iPhone

In the case of my brother it got bad enough one time that he told my Mom's doctor during an appointment for cancer treatment options that he was a quack who was in the pocket of the medical industry.  I get it that he really believes in holistic remedies and stuff like that but he has zero understanding of how cancer actually works.  Similarly he made comments in that Facebook post in reference to vaccinations, especially if a COVID-19 vaccine was created.  I don't get why people listen to him at all when does things like that, to me he sounds like a crazy person.  Granted, I don't have circuit training franchise...so maybe that's part of the "brand strategy?"  
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 02:50:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:47:59 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 02:35:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 01:49:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Heh...He looks like a bag of fun, or at wants to antagonize as many people as possible.  My brother is running around doing stuff like that right now all over social media.
In terms of what he speaks about he has good points, in other cases ehh not so much.

I notice alot of people are getting tired of mask wearing. Even though you only have to wear them indoors or areas with alot of people.

We could start concerts back up. Everyone just has yo wear a face mask!


iPhone

The problem with guys like that is that any good points they actually make get buried quickly by an avalanche of inane ranting.  That's kind of how my brother's manifesto on COVID-19 was.  He made actually several good points but went off the deep end about not "trusting scientists and the government"  in a conspiratorial sense.
100% its the ranting & dismissal of science that makes them sound crazy.

I understand science has good & bad. But so does everything else in life.


iPhone

In the case of my brother it got bad enough one time that he told my Mom's doctor during an appointment for cancer treatment options that he was a quack who was in the pocket of the medical industry.  I get it that he really believes in holistic remedies and stuff like that but he has zero understanding of how cancer actually works.  Similarly he made comments in that Facebook post in reference to vaccinations, especially if a COVID-19 vaccine was created.  I don't get why people listen to him at all when does things like that, to me he sounds like a crazy person.  Granted, I don't have circuit training franchise...so maybe that's part of the "brand strategy?"  
I wonder if the people who think vaccines are bad. Would still think the same if they were teleported to a time where medicine was nothing & the only remedy they had was a rock to the head


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 09, 2020, 03:07:45 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 01:30:35 PMWho wears masks outdoors?

I don't.  There is no point.  I normally don't congregate with others outdoors, and wearing a mask dilutes the benefits of exercise.  I am about to embark on my fourth weekly grocery shop with a mask, however (the over-under on masks indoors at supermarkets etc. tipped for me in mid-April).

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:37:53 PMSupposedly my gym plans to reopen but with a requirement for people to wear masks, that will be interesting.

Our Y has announced it plans to reopen on May 18 and to share specifics of how that will work on May 11 (this Monday).  At this point, I am speculating that equipment availability will take a hit because of social distancing, but I don't know if that will translate to more active users per piece because I expect some vulnerable users (especially the over-65s) to stay away.  The big question is masks--so far I have heard nothing one way or the other.

I expect to be making at least one visit to reconnoiter before I commit to returning to the Y on a regular basis.  If there is a mask requirement, I may wait until that is phased out (or we crash back into lockdown, which is not outside the realm of possibility).

Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 02:50:49 PMI wonder if the people who think vaccines are bad. Would still think the same if they were teleported to a time where medicine was nothing & the only remedy they had was a rock to the head

There are many theories to account for anti-vaxxers.  While there has long (perhaps always) been opposition to vaccination and inoculation on religious grounds, I hypothesize that a large share of modern anti-vaxxers are looking to free-ride on herd immunity.  You can see the incentive to do so if you look at the COVID-19 herd immunity debate.  We are likely to find (1) immunity, if it exists, can be had only by contracting the disease, and (2) getting COVID-19 sets you up for nasty long-term sequelae (SARS has been correlated with bone tissue necrosis; there are indications that COVID-19 zaps liver function).  Given these factors, it becomes really tempting to avoid getting COVID-19 by letting other people catch it and deal with the health consequences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 03:21:32 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 02:50:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:47:59 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 02:35:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 01:49:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 01:46:19 PM
Heh...He looks like a bag of fun, or at wants to antagonize as many people as possible.  My brother is running around doing stuff like that right now all over social media.
In terms of what he speaks about he has good points, in other cases ehh not so much.

I notice alot of people are getting tired of mask wearing. Even though you only have to wear them indoors or areas with alot of people.

We could start concerts back up. Everyone just has yo wear a face mask!


iPhone

The problem with guys like that is that any good points they actually make get buried quickly by an avalanche of inane ranting.  That's kind of how my brother's manifesto on COVID-19 was.  He made actually several good points but went off the deep end about not "trusting scientists and the government"  in a conspiratorial sense.
100% its the ranting & dismissal of science that makes them sound crazy.

I understand science has good & bad. But so does everything else in life.


iPhone

In the case of my brother it got bad enough one time that he told my Mom's doctor during an appointment for cancer treatment options that he was a quack who was in the pocket of the medical industry.  I get it that he really believes in holistic remedies and stuff like that but he has zero understanding of how cancer actually works.  Similarly he made comments in that Facebook post in reference to vaccinations, especially if a COVID-19 vaccine was created.  I don't get why people listen to him at all when does things like that, to me he sounds like a crazy person.  Granted, I don't have circuit training franchise...so maybe that's part of the "brand strategy?"  
I wonder if the people who think vaccines are bad. Would still think the same if they were teleported to a time where medicine was nothing & the only remedy they had was a rock to the head


iPhone

My brother is definitely not a historian and probably couldn't tell you about much of anything that occurred before 1975. 

Regarding the gym I'll be probably back the day it opens during the morning hours.  Most causal members weren't coming by the time the closure came, I doubt they'll be back any time soon.  I'm to understand that wiping down the equipment will be a big thing.  I basically just plan on finding a adjustable bench and camping out there until I'm done with free weight exercises before I move onto machines.  At the very least it will probably stop people from slowing down the pace by wanting to work in or asking for a spot. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 03:43:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.
In Massachusetts, military aircraft flew over hospitals to celebrate hospital workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 09, 2020, 03:44:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PMWhat does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.

I think the purpose is the same as banging pots and pans at NHS shift change times in Britain--thanking the healthcare workers on the frontlines.  (While I'm sure the gesture is appreciated, I would personally prefer giving them the security of working with adequate PPE.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 03:49:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.
Apparently the military aircrafts flying above are leaving chemtrials with more "corona virus or another human harming ingredient"


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 03:56:19 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 03:49:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.
Apparently the military aircrafts flying above are leaving chemtrials with more "corona virus or another human harming ingredient"


iPhone
Chemtrials? What are you, a conspiracy theorist?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 03:59:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.

About the same thing as when people post pictures of military convoys or tanks loaded onto freight trains.  It's either "chem trails"  or "martial law"  according to most of those posts.  Never mind the fact that if you live near a military base that it is common to see military vehicles of all kinds everyday.  One of the highlights of my day was watching the F18s chase the F5s all over Key West when I lived in the area. 
Title: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 04:02:14 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 03:56:19 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 03:49:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.
Apparently the military aircrafts flying above are leaving chemtrials with more "corona virus or another human harming ingredient"


iPhone
Chemtrials? What are you, a conspiracy theorist?
Naa dude im not the one who came up with this. Nor do I believe it.

Edit: Also Chemtrials are a real thing. Look it up.

iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:20:29 PM
What is amusing to me is that the conspiracy people are still out there when it has been clear from the get go with Virus Time that the Federal Government hasn't been the governing body pushing restrictions.  Most restrictions in the U.S. have come from local, County, and State governments.  Regardless of what anyone thinks of the Federal response it's hard to look at the situation and say that they were the ones pushing for restrictions or maintaining them now.  If anything the varied response has clearly shown that States Rights are definitely still a thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:20:29 PM
What is amusing to me is that the conspiracy people are still out there when it has been clear from the get go with Virus Time that the Federal Government hasn't been the governing body pushing restrictions.  Most restrictions in the U.S. have come from local, County, and State governments.  Regardless of what anyone thinks of the Federal response it's hard to look at the situation and say that they were the ones pushing for restrictions or maintaining them now.  If anything the varied response has clearly shown that States Rights are definitely still a thing.
Good ol news pushing the narrative & the good ol "˜Mericans not researching shit before they go off.

Classic


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
Tesla is apparently threatening to pull out of Alameda County if they don't allow them to resume operations:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-threatens-pull-tesla-172731578.html

The above is interesting because the order affecting Tesla is localized to the Bay Area (including Alameda County).  This is probably biggest company I've seen so far in the Bay Area start speaking out against local stay at home orders.  That said, Elon Musk has had some pretty "interesting"  statements regarding Stay-at-home orders that have made the news the past couple weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:28:09 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 04:25:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:20:29 PM
What is amusing to me is that the conspiracy people are still out there when it has been clear from the get go with Virus Time that the Federal Government hasn't been the governing body pushing restrictions.  Most restrictions in the U.S. have come from local, County, and State governments.  Regardless of what anyone thinks of the Federal response it's hard to look at the situation and say that they were the ones pushing for restrictions or maintaining them now.  If anything the varied response has clearly shown that States Rights are definitely still a thing.
Good ol news pushing the narrative & the good ol "˜Mericans not researching shit before they go off.

Classic


iPhone

I would probably chalk it more up to a lot of people think someone is always out to get them and will always find a scapegoat to fit their narrative.  The news agencies that feed into that kind of thinking are just catering to a market just like any other demographic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 04:41:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
Tesla is apparently threatening to pull out of Alameda County if they don't allow them to resume operations:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-threatens-pull-tesla-172731578.html

The above is interesting because the order affecting Tesla is localized to the Bay Area (including Alameda County).  This is probably biggest company I've seen so far in the Bay Area start speaking out against local stay at home orders.  That said, Elon Musk has had some pretty "interesting"  statements regarding Stay-at-home orders that have made the news the past couple weeks.
Musk really showing his true colors here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:49:20 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 04:41:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
Tesla is apparently threatening to pull out of Alameda County if they don't allow them to resume operations:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-threatens-pull-tesla-172731578.html

The above is interesting because the order affecting Tesla is localized to the Bay Area (including Alameda County).  This is probably biggest company I've seen so far in the Bay Area start speaking out against local stay at home orders.  That said, Elon Musk has had some pretty "interesting"  statements regarding Stay-at-home orders that have made the news the past couple weeks.
Musk really showing his true colors here.

Well it is a business after all.  It probably would be easier to sell moving to Nevada completely or partially to Texas if you can blame a localized ordinance for why you did it.  I'm kind of surprised they actually wanted to operate in California to begin with given how difficult the business climate is here compared to other states.  Granted that giant factory in Nevada needed quite a bit of time to get built. 

Tesla seems to tied completely to the antics of Elon Musk for good or bad.  Some stuff they push for (like Tesla stores as opposed to franchise dealerships) has actually been pretty good whereas others could be considered "questionable."   For such a large company they are surprisingly still almost completely tied to investors pumping in money to keep it afloat.  Shuttering completely in one of your major manufacturing areas in situations like that isn't exactly viable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 09, 2020, 05:01:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 04:41:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
Tesla is apparently threatening to pull out of Alameda County if they don't allow them to resume operations:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-threatens-pull-tesla-172731578.html

The above is interesting because the order affecting Tesla is localized to the Bay Area (including Alameda County).  This is probably biggest company I've seen so far in the Bay Area start speaking out against local stay at home orders.  That said, Elon Musk has had some pretty "interesting"  statements regarding Stay-at-home orders that have made the news the past couple weeks.
Musk really showing his true colors here.

I mean, this is the dipshit trying to name his kid "X Æ A-12", so should anyone really listen to what he wants?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 05:06:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 09, 2020, 05:01:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 04:41:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
Tesla is apparently threatening to pull out of Alameda County if they don't allow them to resume operations:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-threatens-pull-tesla-172731578.html

The above is interesting because the order affecting Tesla is localized to the Bay Area (including Alameda County).  This is probably biggest company I've seen so far in the Bay Area start speaking out against local stay at home orders.  That said, Elon Musk has had some pretty "interesting"  statements regarding Stay-at-home orders that have made the news the past couple weeks.
Musk really showing his true colors here.

I mean, this is the dipshit trying to name his kid "X Æ A-12", so should anyone really listen to what he wants?

I'm sure the City of Fremont will since Tesla has 10,000 employees there. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 05:11:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 09, 2020, 05:01:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 04:41:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
Tesla is apparently threatening to pull out of Alameda County if they don't allow them to resume operations:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-threatens-pull-tesla-172731578.html

The above is interesting because the order affecting Tesla is localized to the Bay Area (including Alameda County).  This is probably biggest company I've seen so far in the Bay Area start speaking out against local stay at home orders.  That said, Elon Musk has had some pretty "interesting"  statements regarding Stay-at-home orders that have made the news the past couple weeks.
Musk really showing his true colors here.

I mean, this is the dipshit trying to name his kid "X Æ A-12", so should anyone really listen to what he wants?
Hey dude not cool. Thats a good name


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 05:36:35 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 09, 2020, 05:01:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 04:41:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
Tesla is apparently threatening to pull out of Alameda County if they don't allow them to resume operations:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-threatens-pull-tesla-172731578.html

The above is interesting because the order affecting Tesla is localized to the Bay Area (including Alameda County).  This is probably biggest company I've seen so far in the Bay Area start speaking out against local stay at home orders.  That said, Elon Musk has had some pretty "interesting"  statements regarding Stay-at-home orders that have made the news the past couple weeks.
Musk really showing his true colors here.

I mean, this is the dipshit trying to name his kid "X Æ A-12", so should anyone really listen to what he wants?
Is that a name or a secret code? And I thought that North West was bad... at least that's a word in the English language (or any language)!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 09, 2020, 07:23:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 03:20:46 PM
I know a man whose own child wouldn't let him into the house after he'd shaved his beard off.  The kid didn't even recognize his own father, thought he was a stranger trying to break in, and refused to open the door.

Sounds like something that happened to me. I've kept a beard pretty much constantly since 1984, when I broke up with a girlfriend who didn't want me to grow one. I've only shaved it a handful of times, mostly when I slipped with the electric trimmer and cut a big gap in it. (And for awhile, I had a goatee, but it was a pain to shave around it, so I grew the whole thing back.) The first Christmas we were married, I decided to shave my beard. My wife of four months had never seen me without it. After I shaved it, I went to the other bathroom where she was getting ready, and she screamed when she saw me because she thought there was a stranger standing behind her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 07:25:21 PM
And unsurprisingly the City of Fremont comes out with a statement expressing concerns about manufacturing facilities not being allowed to reopen:

http://www.fremont.gov/CivicAlerts/SingleAlertItem?alertID=1768

It wouldn't shock me if suddenly the City of Fremont comes out with a directive stating that manufacturers like Tesla are "essential."   For reference on the State Level manufacturing facilities have been allowed to resume operations.  While what Elon Musk said was nutty it does seem a little strange that the Bay Area hasn't been so willing to really progress into the start of reopening phases.  Alameda County and the Bay Area in general are way past the spike in their case loads.  Oddly none of the six Bay Area counties on a joint order are reporting recovery statistics on COVID cases anymore.  Marin County has reported recoveries at 208 of 257 confirmed cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 07:25:44 PM
Anyone else remember the bushy Tom Selleck mustaches of the '80s?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:00:45 PM
For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16. This is one of the leading metrics you can use to see if the outbreak is weakening.

Today was 8.57%, which was down from 9.56% yesterday. For comparison, it was 25.42% on April 2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 10:19:05 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:00:45 PM
For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16. This is one of the leading metrics you can use to see if the outbreak is weakening.

Today was 8.57%, which was down from 9.56% yesterday. For comparison, it was 25.42% on April 2.
Massachusetts has had declining cases for a few days now, so hopefully we can open up soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:20:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 10:19:05 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:00:45 PM
For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16. This is one of the leading metrics you can use to see if the outbreak is weakening.

Today was 8.57%, which was down from 9.56% yesterday. For comparison, it was 25.42% on April 2.
Massachusetts has had declining cases for a few days now, so hopefully we can open up soon.

I think most states have been declining for a while, except the ones that get a big outbreak at a meatpacking plant.

There's more testing now, so they discover cases they never would have discovered a month ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 09, 2020, 10:58:04 PM
Now Tesla has filed a lawsuit against Alameda County under the pretense that they are part of the Federally defined energy sector.  Apparently the City of Fremont all in backing Tesla:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tesla-sues-california-county-over-002227640.html

Interestingly some of the language of the lawsuit could have consequences for other communities in California which have moved further into reopening than the Governor's order.  There is an increasingly large number of cities that have opened things like Barber shops or outright declared all their businesses essential (deferring social distancing standards mostly as part of PPE and safety protocols).  If this actually gets heard this could have an interesting result for the rest of California one way or the other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 10, 2020, 06:17:41 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html)

That article has been updated. The Cheyenne River Sioux basically told Noem to fuck off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 10, 2020, 09:02:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 10, 2020, 06:17:41 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html)

That article has been updated. The Cheyenne River Sioux basically told Noem to fuck off.

Which probably means the dispute with the Governor will escalate. 

You have communities along US 212 west of the reservation that will have a tough time traveling east, without going through the reservation. For example, people in Faith (over 400 people) would have to take a long detour up to US 12 to cross the Missouri River into eastern South Dakota -- and that highway crosses another reservation. The other decent alternate route, SD 73 to SD 34 to Pierre or to I-90, cuts through a corner of the Cheyenne River reservation.

Many of the Cheyenne Sioux communities near US 212 are off the highway on tribal roads, on which the tribe can restrict travel and place checkpoints to keep through travelers from leaving the highway. US 212 cuts through the major community of Eagle Butte, but maybe the tribe can accommodate through travelers with a detour on tribal roads, as part of an agreement with the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 10, 2020, 09:27:25 AM
Quote from: oscar on May 10, 2020, 09:02:18 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 10, 2020, 06:17:41 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html)

That article has been updated. The Cheyenne River Sioux basically told Noem to fuck off.

Which probably means the dispute with the Governor will escalate. 

You have communities along US 212 west of the reservation that will have a tough time traveling east, without going through the reservation. For example, people in Faith (over 400 people) would have to take a long detour up to US 12 to cross the Missouri River into eastern South Dakota -- and that highway crosses another reservation. The other decent alternate route, SD 73 to SD 34 to Pierre or to I-90, cuts through a corner of the Cheyenne River reservation.

Many of the Cheyenne Sioux communities near US 212 are off the highway on tribal roads, on which the tribe can restrict travel and place checkpoints to keep through travelers from leaving the highway. US 212 cuts through the major community of Eagle Butte, but maybe the tribe can accommodate through travelers with a detour on tribal roads, as part of an agreement with the state.

The Oglalga Sioux has pretty much given the same response to the governor.

https://www.kotatv.com/content/news/Oglala-Sioux-Tribe-to-Gov-Noem-Your-threats-of-legal-action-are-not-helpful-570346431.html (https://www.kotatv.com/content/news/Oglala-Sioux-Tribe-to-Gov-Noem-Your-threats-of-legal-action-are-not-helpful-570346431.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 10, 2020, 09:35:30 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 10, 2020, 09:27:25 AM
The Oglalga Sioux has pretty much given the same response to the governor.

https://www.kotatv.com/content/news/Oglala-Sioux-Tribe-to-Gov-Noem-Your-threats-of-legal-action-are-not-helpful-570346431.html (https://www.kotatv.com/content/news/Oglala-Sioux-Tribe-to-Gov-Noem-Your-threats-of-legal-action-are-not-helpful-570346431.html)

At least that tribe is trying only to monitor rather than block through traffic. It is supplementing the checkpoints on state-maintained routes, with checkpoints on tribal roads on which it can legally prohibit travel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 09:40:33 AM
Well, the reservations are sort of like countries, and countries have border checkpoints.

An island would be similar. If my town was an island, why wouldn't I want it blocked from the rest of the country during a pandemic? As far as I'm concerned, people could move about the island all they want. But would I want the rest of the country visiting? If a visitor could be quickly tested for coronavirus, I probably wouldn't have a problem though. But I'm not sure if that's doable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 09:41:19 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone

Montana has absolutely crushed it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 10, 2020, 09:51:27 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.

Until the 2nd wave hits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 10:01:46 AM
Quote from: GaryV on May 10, 2020, 09:51:27 AM
Until the 2nd wave hits.

If there's a second wave, it won't be for months. By that time, I expect them to have learned from the stupid mistakes they made this time so it can be stamped out quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 10, 2020, 12:25:37 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 09:40:33 AM
Well, the reservations are sort of like countries, and countries have border checkpoints.

An island would be similar. If my town was an island, why wouldn't I want it blocked from the rest of the country during a pandemic? As far as I'm concerned, people could move about the island all they want. But would I want the rest of the country visiting? If a visitor could be quickly tested for coronavirus, I probably wouldn't have a problem though. But I'm not sure if that's doable.

Did the tribe agree to permit through travel, as part of the deal where the state built paved high-speed highways across the reservation (much better than the crappy BIA roads I saw from the highway in that reservation)? If the state crammed US 212 down the tribe's throat, that would help its case. But I suspect that the tribe wanted that highway and the other state highways, to improve its access to communities outside the reservation as well as travel within that large reservation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 10, 2020, 02:32:36 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone

More great news: Brazoria County has over 650 cases, but over half of those are recovered, and 71% of the remaining active cases are inmates at the county jails, meaning only 89 cases are active in the public areas of the county.

On a side note, many counties in the Houston area are reporting more recovered cases than active ones, most notably, Wharton, Brazoria, and Galveston counties. However, Fort Bend and Harris counties have about a 2 to 1 ratio of active to recovered, a trend I see in other parts of the country.

Are the counties reporting a higher percentage of recovered cases being too lenient with the recovered term, or are the other counties simply not updating their recovered case counts? I'm thinking it might be the latter, because there have not been any recovered cases reported in the state jails in Brazoria County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 02:35:11 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 10, 2020, 02:32:36 PM
Are the counties reporting a higher percentage of recovered cases being too lenient with the recovered term, or are the other counties simply not updating their recovered case counts? I'm thinking it might be the latter, because there have not been any recovered cases reported in the state jails in Brazoria County.

Some health departments just don't report recovered cases, or they wait a very long time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 10, 2020, 03:32:54 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone

Except that we're not going to keep it up because all the states are relaxing restrictions.  That trend will reverse soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 10, 2020, 03:40:14 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 10, 2020, 03:32:54 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone

Except that we're not going to keep it up because all the states are relaxing restrictions.  That trend will reverse soon.
Challenge is to set up  set of restrictions strong enough to keep infection from flaring up, but weak enough to keep economy going as much as possible.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 03:44:52 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 10, 2020, 03:40:14 PM
Challenge is to set up  set of restrictions strong enough to keep infection from flaring up, but weak enough to keep economy going as much as possible.

That's what Sweden does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 10, 2020, 03:47:14 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 10, 2020, 03:40:14 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 10, 2020, 03:32:54 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone

Except that we're not going to keep it up because all the states are relaxing restrictions.  That trend will reverse soon.
Challenge is to set up  set of restrictions strong enough to keep infection from flaring up, but weak enough to keep economy going as much as possible.


And to that end, I haven't heard of single governmental body in the United States that has declared "business as normal"  in regards to any kind of reopening.  Almost every state, local jurisdiction, or even business has some sort of safety policy put in place as part of their reopening process.  The impression I get is that a lot of people assume any kind of reopening is analogous to ripping the band aid completely off when it isn't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 10, 2020, 04:45:25 PM
My work's "liberty zone"  has been expanded to include; Yosemite National Park, Kings Canyon National Park, Sierra National Forest, and Sequoia National Forest.  While the National Parks aren't open pretty much everything in the National Forests is.  To that end my wife and I are planning on cycling/hiking numerous Forest Service Road/Trails starting this next weekend.  Suffice to say I can handle having a summer that includes the remote Sierra Nevada Mountains over not having it at all. 

Long term I'm hoping for Sequoia National Park to open up so I can head back out to Mineral King.  I much rather be on some remote trail or camp ground fending for myself on my days off again over being in Fresno...really any urban area.  At least I'll have some new material to put on Gribblenation, it's been hard coming up with new stuff.  I really am surprised at how excited I am to get out of the city and have it be legit finally.  I started ripping up my left knee running excess miles and I can finally scale back to 35 a week since my regular mountain grounds are back in play. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 10, 2020, 05:46:37 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 10, 2020, 03:32:54 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone

Except that we're not going to keep it up because all the states are relaxing restrictions.  That trend will reverse soon.

Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 10, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 10, 2020, 05:46:37 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 10, 2020, 03:32:54 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone

Except that we're not going to keep it up because all the states are relaxing restrictions.  That trend will reverse soon.

Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.
If you will, fact that containment is successful so far means that those measures work, and nothing else. NYC shows that going into catastrophic mode is very possible, and any further steps have to account for, and avoid as much as possible, that very scenario.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 10, 2020, 09:22:38 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 10, 2020, 05:46:37 PM
Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.

Seattle came extremely close until the remote-work policies from major employers and shutdown from the state government really took effect. My local hospital (Everett Providence) was within days of running out of supplies, with similar stories reported at Harborview, Swedish, and UW Medical.

That was the whole point of flattening the curve. The virus will still have new cases because it's impossible to totally stamp out here, but if it's kept at a low enough level there won't be a total collapse of the health system.

Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on May 11, 2020, 12:37:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 01:53:05 PM
I'm tired of the national media insisting that whether or not a person wears a mask is a symbol of their political views. My own practices on this (and the practices of other folks I know) contradict what they claim.

It's really a matter of whether it's realistic to wear one depending on what activity you're engaged in.

For at least the past several decades, the national press corps has been pretty much 100% political in nearly all of their 'reporting', such that I seldom pay any attention to them anymore.

Sad, but that is the state of the USA's 4th estate.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on May 11, 2020, 12:38:56 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 03:56:19 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 03:49:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.
Apparently the military aircrafts flying above are leaving chemtrials with more "corona virus or another human harming ingredient"


iPhone
Chemtrials? What are you, a conspiracy theorist?

Well, they do leave behind a mixture of chemicals, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, soot, etc.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 11, 2020, 12:49:07 AM
Quote from: Bruce on May 10, 2020, 09:22:38 PM
Seattle came extremely close until the remote-work policies from major employers and shutdown from the state government really took effect. My local hospital (Everett Providence) was within days of running out of supplies, with similar stories reported at Harborview, Swedish, and UW Medical.

That was the whole point of flattening the curve. The virus will still have new cases because it's impossible to totally stamp out here, but if it's kept at a low enough level there won't be a total collapse of the health system.

This is exactly the way I see it. Hospitals being empty is a bit unusual, but clearly a sign that staying home is working: leaving your home naturally results in a massive increase in the chance of being injured or contracting a disease.

Fact is, at the end of the day, your chance of contracting COVID-19 is virtually zero if you don't leave your home. If you leave regularly, driving a car, smoking a cigarette, and shaking hands with everyone you meet? Well, naturally, your chance of getting injured, sick, or killed is much higher, COVID-19 or not. This stay-at-home order has certainly reduced hospital visits for numerous reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 11, 2020, 08:42:36 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/0de91ccb5ee2000833f4cd813a23e3ac.jpg)


iPhone

Something tells me this sort of sign is likely to be popular with the so-called "sovereign citizen" crowd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
Quote from: mgk920 on May 11, 2020, 12:37:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 01:53:05 PM
I'm tired of the national media insisting that whether or not a person wears a mask is a symbol of their political views. My own practices on this (and the practices of other folks I know) contradict what they claim.

It's really a matter of whether it's realistic to wear one depending on what activity you're engaged in.

For at least the past several decades, the national press corps has been pretty much 100% political in nearly all of their 'reporting', such that I seldom pay any attention to them anymore.

Sad, but that is the state of the USA's 4th estate.

Mike


Fox, MSNBC, CNN have all evolved from "news channels" to "opinion channels."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 11, 2020, 08:58:06 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on May 11, 2020, 08:42:36 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/0de91ccb5ee2000833f4cd813a23e3ac.jpg)


iPhone

Something tells me this sort of sign is likely to be popular with the so-called "sovereign citizen" crowd.
You know it!

When the government is taking away your righ.... Wait our rights havent been taken away.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:18:39 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 11, 2020, 08:58:06 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on May 11, 2020, 08:42:36 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/0de91ccb5ee2000833f4cd813a23e3ac.jpg)


iPhone

Something tells me this sort of sign is likely to be popular with the so-called "sovereign citizen" crowd.
You know it!

When the government is taking away your righ.... Wait our rights havent been taken away.


iPhone


I'm pretty sure that some people would protest "No Shirt. No Shoes. No Service" policies if they came out today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 11, 2020, 09:32:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't. The whole point of requiring masks is so that people don't get sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 11, 2020, 09:32:46 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:18:39 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 11, 2020, 08:58:06 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on May 11, 2020, 08:42:36 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200509/0de91ccb5ee2000833f4cd813a23e3ac.jpg)


iPhone

Something tells me this sort of sign is likely to be popular with the so-called "sovereign citizen" crowd.
You know it!

When the government is taking away your righ.... Wait our rights havent been taken away.


iPhone


I'm pretty sure that some people would protest "No Shirt. No Shoes. No Service" policies if they came out today.
I know you're saying this jokingly but this would definitely happen. I can see it.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 10:40:05 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.
If anything, I would expect masks to become much more acceptable - not just Asian extravagance, but something socially accepted and even expected from those with even minor cold.
Hopefully same goes for handwashing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 11, 2020, 10:46:42 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't stick around.  In the south, there's plenty of laws temporarily overridden that specifically prohibit mask wearing in public (for what should be obvious historical reasons).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 11, 2020, 10:50:27 AM
Yesterday, Michigan reported its fewest new cases since the very early stages of the outbreak. That comes as testing volume has gone up. One day last week, Michigan administered over 12,000 COVID tests and around 7% came back positive.

Outside of the metro areas, the counties with the highest caseloads have had nursing home outbreaks (Alpena, Crawford, and Otsego come to mind)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 10:55:18 AM
Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 11, 2020, 11:07:41 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 10:55:18 AM
Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.
Is that because of declining cases or increased testing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 11, 2020, 11:07:41 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 10:55:18 AM
Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.
Is that because of declining cases or increased testing?

Both.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 11:22:35 AM
With over 80k deaths, the average US COVID death rate is roughly 25 per 100k.  There are 38 states that are averaging below that and only 10 states averaging above that death rate (i rounded every state to the nearest 5... so some states are technically closer to 0 deaths per 100,000 than 5 deaths per 100,000). 

(https://i.imgur.com/iu0YZw3.png)

I'm hopeful that those 38 states can come out this pandemic relatively unscathed when compared to the other states that have already been hit hard.  But is there any reason to believe that Texas won't catch up to their neighbor Louisiana in their death rate?  Also, Ohio's death rate won't catch up to their neighbors in Michigan and Pennsylvania?  This chart does estimate the number of deaths to expect during this pandemic given an average nationwide death rate (and currently IL and MD are the average death rate states).   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 12:01:09 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 11, 2020, 10:46:42 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't stick around.  In the south, there's plenty of laws temporarily overridden that specifically prohibit mask wearing in public (for what should be obvious historical reasons).

can evolve to "(respiratory) masks covering the lower part of face" vs "masks covering area around eyes". Large sunglasses already make people hard to recognize, though, and combination of respiratory mask and large sunglasses can fully obscure face. That doesn't lead to banning sunglasses, though.
Overall, I assume that historical reasons are just that - historical reasons these days (especially with recognition evolving into harder to fake things like walking as well as forensic methods like fingerprint and DNA tests), vs pretty pressing health issues. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 12:04:40 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 11:22:35 AM
With over 80k deaths, the average US COVID death rate is roughly 25 per 100k.  There are 38 states that are averaging below that and only 10 states averaging above that death rate (i rounded every state to the nearest 5... so some states are technically closer to 0 deaths per 100,000 than 5 deaths per 100,000). 
Again, keep in mind that those successes are far from being watertight. Spanish flu did hit remote areas as well, as well as historically plague - leading to dying out for some places. Somewhat similar concept to meat plants being hit today; being in remote area grants no immunity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 12:06:16 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 11, 2020, 10:50:27 AM
Yesterday, Michigan reported its fewest new cases since the very early stages of the outbreak. That comes as testing volume has gone up. One day last week, Michigan administered over 12,000 COVID tests and around 7% came back positive.

Outside of the metro areas, the counties with the highest caseloads have had nursing home outbreaks (Alpena, Crawford, and Otsego come to mind)

The states that have been hit hard by the virus are seeing coronavirus cases drop.  But most of the states that haven't been hit hard are seeing cases rise even during the lock down measures.  There are a few states (Hawaii, Alaska, Montana) that appear to be successful in containing the virus, but short of completely stomping the virus out the states that are seeing a slow climb in cases during the lock down may be in trouble.  California has been averaging 10k new cases per week and are seeing more new cases today than they were at the beginning of the lock down (more testing plays a role in that, but the point I'm making is the virus hasn't gone away).  Remember when the government thought they could contain 15 cases?  Well 15 cases turned into 1,000,000.  What will 10,000 cases in California turn into once things really start to reopen?

(https://i.imgur.com/4NWU3LV.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=Connecticut&location=Louisiana&location=Massachusetts&location=Michigan&location=New+Jersey&location=New+York&location=Pennsylvania&location=Rhode+Island&doublingtime=3

(https://i.imgur.com/f7ZdScw.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=Kentucky&location=North+Carolina&location=North+Dakota&doublingtime=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 11, 2020, 12:07:28 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 11:22:35 AMBut is there any reason to believe that Texas won't catch up to their neighbor Louisiana in their death rate?

I hypothesize that when we have more time to crunch numbers, we will find much of the variation in infection rates between adjacent jurisdictions comes from super-spreader events.  In Louisiana's case, this was Mardi Gras in New Orleans.  Texas had a similar potential for disaster with SXSW in Austin, but that was cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:09:13 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 12:06:16 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 11, 2020, 10:50:27 AM
Yesterday, Michigan reported its fewest new cases since the very early stages of the outbreak. That comes as testing volume has gone up. One day last week, Michigan administered over 12,000 COVID tests and around 7% came back positive.

Outside of the metro areas, the counties with the highest caseloads have had nursing home outbreaks (Alpena, Crawford, and Otsego come to mind)

The states that have been hit hard by the virus are seeing coronavirus cases drop.  But most of the states that haven't been hit hard are seeing cases rise even during the lock down measures.  There are a few states (Hawaii, Alaska, Montana) that appear to be successful in containing the virus, but short of completely stomping the virus out the states that are seeing a slow climb in cases during the lock down may be in trouble.  California has been averaging 10k new cases per week and are seeing more new cases today than they were at the beginning of the lock down (more testing plays a role in that, but the point I'm making is the virus hasn't gone away).  Remember when the government thought they could contain 15 cases?  Well 15 cases turned into 1,000,000.  What will 10,000 cases in California turn into once things really start to reopen?

(https://i.imgur.com/4NWU3LV.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=Connecticut&location=Louisiana&location=Massachusetts&location=Michigan&location=New+Jersey&location=New+York&location=Pennsylvania&location=Rhode+Island&doublingtime=3

(https://i.imgur.com/f7ZdScw.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=Kentucky&location=North+Carolina&location=North+Dakota&doublingtime=3

Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 11, 2020, 12:12:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 12:01:09 PM
Overall, I assume that historical reasons are just that - historical reasons these days (especially with recognition evolving into harder to fake things like walking as well as forensic methods like fingerprint and DNA tests), vs pretty pressing health issues. 

It's not completely "historical". If it's not the KKK, there's always Antifa.

Some people are bothered (but shouldn't be) about the niqabs worn by some Muslim women in my area to cover all of their faces except their eyes. Helpful coincidence that the niqabs also provide some incidental protection against coronavirus spreading, but those women won't stop wearing niqabs (for religious reasons) even if the coronavirus threat goes away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:09:13 PM
Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 12:17:43 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 11, 2020, 12:12:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 12:01:09 PM
Overall, I assume that historical reasons are just that - historical reasons these days (especially with recognition evolving into harder to fake things like walking as well as forensic methods like fingerprint and DNA tests), vs pretty pressing health issues. 

It's not completely "historical". If it's not the KKK, there's always Antifa.
On the other hand,  there is faster police response and a lot of surveillance cameras.
Facial recognition by witnesses is only that good anyway. It definitely works in smaller communities, but barely a factor in a multimillion city.
My message is that open face is only that good of a protection against prosecution these days - and that protection keeps diminishing; and it needs to be weighed against the benefit of a sanitary mask that may become better recognized by the society.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:26:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:09:13 PM
Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.

Yes, and that example was no less cherry picking data to paint a narrative that certainly isn't true state wide.  Of the approximately 2,700 deaths in California approximately 1,500 have occurred in Los Angeles County.  Your inference suggests that places like Tehema County and Humboldt County are just at risk as Los Angeles County when there has been zero evidence to support that notion.  The Bay Area doesn't even have a County in the top five in the State (those counties start popping up in sixth place for active cases).  Right now the entire top five counties with active cases in Southern California. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 11, 2020, 12:29:00 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

If you fly on an airplane, the Patriot Act most certainly does impact your life every time you have to take your shoes off to board a plane, every time you're not allowed to take liquid soap or shampoo or mouthwash in a container more than 3 ounces on a plane, or you have to stand in line and empty your pockets and open up your laptop. If you travel by car across the border, just search through some of the posts on this forum to see how American citizens have been grilled upon trying to return home. And beyond that, just google "Edward Snowden" to find out just how intrusive the government is into everyday activities since 9/11.

Quote from: Bruce on May 10, 2020, 09:22:38 PM
Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.

Interesting. I've seen reports that the death toll is overcounted because people who have the virus, but didn't actually die of the virus, are being counted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 11, 2020, 12:30:19 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:26:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:09:13 PM
Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.

Yes, and that example was no less cherry picking data to paint a narrative that certainly isn't true state wide.  Of the approximately 2,700 deaths in California approximately 1,500 have occurred in Los Angeles County.  Your inference suggests that places like Tehema County and Humboldt County are just at risk as Los Angeles County when there has been zero evidence to support that notion.  The Bay Area doesn't even have a County in the top five in the State (those counties start popping up in sixth place for active cases).  Right now the entire top five counties with active cases in Southern California.

The most populous county in the Bay Area, Santa Clara County, has only 1/5 the population of Los Angeles County. It's also ranked 6th by population – if the virus was evenly distributed by population, there would still be nothing in the Bay Area in the top five.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on May 11, 2020, 12:45:24 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 10:40:05 AM
If anything, I would expect masks to become much more acceptable - not just Asian extravagance, but something socially accepted and even expected from those with even minor cold.
Hopefully same goes for handwashing.

I don't expect the US to maintain the habit of wearing a mask to keep germs to themselves...Americans dislike personal discomfort and personal inconvenience...which is a shame.

Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 11, 2020, 11:07:41 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 10:55:18 AM
Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.
Is that because of declining cases or increased testing?
Both.

However there are regions within states where new hospitalizations (a more reliable metric than new confirmed cases) are trending up.  The rates are low enough to not be as scary as, say, the upward trend in New York City a few weeks ago, but they are enough to be a reminder that the first wave isn't over everywhere in the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:46:35 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 11, 2020, 12:30:19 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:26:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:09:13 PM
Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.

Yes, and that example was no less cherry picking data to paint a narrative that certainly isn't true state wide.  Of the approximately 2,700 deaths in California approximately 1,500 have occurred in Los Angeles County.  Your inference suggests that places like Tehema County and Humboldt County are just at risk as Los Angeles County when there has been zero evidence to support that notion.  The Bay Area doesn't even have a County in the top five in the State (those counties start popping up in sixth place for active cases).  Right now the entire top five counties with active cases in Southern California.

The most populous county in the Bay Area, Santa Clara County, has only 1/5 the population of Los Angeles County. It's also ranked 6th by population – if the virus was evenly distributed by population, there would still be nothing in the Bay Area in the top five.

Yes, the main point I was trying to make was that the situation state wide isn't as grim as it as in Los Angeles County.  That even distribution state wide is essentially something that never could happen in reality given how spread out the population is outside the of the big metro areas.  Something that Los Angeles County does share with the Bay Area is an urban population density.  Even having a simple geographic barrier like San Francisco Bay or the Carquinez Strait does seem to have had an effect on containment.  Marin County and Solano County by comparison to their neighbors directly south have far lower overall cases.  Interestingly Contra Costa County has a low case load per 10,000.  In that particular case it might have much to do with the population center being removed from the rest of the Bay Area by way of the Diablo Range. 

Tulare County is interesting to me considering how high the case load per 10,000; right now it is 24.54.  Neighbor Kings County had a run of infections from a meat processing plant which drove their case load to about 19 per 10,000.  Kern County (Bakersfield) is just below the state average at about 14 per 10,000.  Fresno County is at about 9 per 10,000 presently.  What's interesting with Fresno County is that the City of Fresno was one of the first to order a lockdown which seems to have paid off. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 11, 2020, 12:47:19 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

Where is wearing a mask written into law? Passed by the legislature and signed by the governor?  Or passed by a city commission, town council?

Sure, there's a lot of executive orders - and those expire.  But any laws?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:51:51 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 11, 2020, 12:47:19 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

Where is wearing a mask written into law? Passed by the legislature and signed by the governor?  Or passed by a city commission, town council?

Sure, there's a lot of executive orders - and those expire.  But any laws?

In my case locally it is an emergency City Ordinance with a set expiration date.  I believe the fine is $1,000 dollars potentially.  The State (California) doesn't have a mask law on the books but there is an emergency order.  The emergency order essentially refers to existing statutes on the books about the Governor's powers to declare an emergency.  I would imagine most states would find something similar digging into statutory definitions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 01:14:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 12:46:35 PM
Yes, the main point I was trying to make was that the situation state wide isn't as grim as it as in Los Angeles County.  That even distribution state wide is essentially something that never could happen in reality given how spread out the population is outside the of the big metro areas.  Something that Los Angeles County does share with the Bay Area is an urban population density.  Even having a simple geographic barrier like San Francisco Bay or the Carquinez Strait does seem to have had an effect on containment.  Marin County and Solano County by comparison to their neighbors directly south have far lower overall cases.  Interestingly Contra Costa County has a low case load per 10,000.  In that particular case it might have much to do with the population center being removed from the rest of the Bay Area by way of the Diablo Range. 

None of California has been hit exceptionally hard.  Go to the John Hopkins map and not a single county in California is shaded dark purple (compared to a sea of purple in major metropolitan areas like NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit, New Orleans, Washington, and Chicago).  Major cities that haven't been hit hard yet (like LA, Dallas, Orlando, Phoenix) haven't necessarily dodged a bullet, but rather are delaying the inevitable.  Stay at home orders are successful if a region is able to contain the virus and prevent it from spreading upon reopening the economy.  If all California has done is delay a big spike in cases i don't view that as a success.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 01:56:08 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 11, 2020, 12:29:00 PM

Quote from: Bruce on May 10, 2020, 09:22:38 PM
Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.

Interesting. I've seen reports that the death toll is overcounted because people who have the virus, but didn't actually die of the virus, are being counted.

While that is concerning, I don't think it's as concerning as some people have been making it out to be.  The main reason I say that is that the 'underlying condition' for the majority (literally more than 50%) of cases is either obesity or hypertension.  So, in those cases, let's face it:  it wasn't the 'underlying condition' that killed the patient.  Those conditions may have contributed to the death, but the death wouldn't have happened at that time if not for the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 01:59:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:18:39 AM
I'm pretty sure that some people would protest "No Shirt. No Shoes. No Service" policies if they came out today.

"No shirt, no shoes, no service" is a store policy, not a state ordinance.  Despite what the cute signs on the wall at Jimmy John's say, there is no state health code requiring people to wear shirts and shoes (at least in any state I'm aware of).  It was a way of keeping the hippies out.  Not wearing a shirt or shoes in no way affects the sanitation of the store or health of the employees and other customers.

To that end, stores are perfectly able to require their customers to wear masks, no matter what similar local ordinance may or may not say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 02:03:16 PM
So, today is my first day back in the office.

It feels kind of normal and kind of weird.  On the upside, I remembered to brush my teeth this morning, which has been difficult to remember while I was eating breakfast halfway through my morning.  On the downside, I have to make my own lunch in the morning instead of just waiting for my wife to call me out to the dining room for lunch.  On the upside, I have a decent copy machine at my disposal.  On the downside, I can no longer play CDs through my guitar amplifier while I work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 02:08:49 PM
Los Angeles County has 10 million residents and 31,703 confirmed COVID-19 cases.  That's 0.32% of the population.  Considering 292 pitches are thrown in an average MLB game (146 pitches by each team), you could argue that based on the official numbers Los Angeles is 1 pitch into this pandemic (1/292=0.34%).  LA may have a long way to go before they get through this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 02:13:01 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 01:56:08 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 11, 2020, 12:29:00 PM

Quote from: Bruce on May 10, 2020, 09:22:38 PM
Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.

Interesting. I've seen reports that the death toll is overcounted because people who have the virus, but didn't actually die of the virus, are being counted.

While that is concerning, I don't think it's as concerning as some people have been making it out to be.  The main reason I say that is that the 'underlying condition' for the majority (literally more than 50%) of cases is either obesity or hypertension.  So, in those cases, let's face it:  it wasn't the 'underlying condition' that killed the patient.  Those conditions may have contributed to the death, but the death wouldn't have happened at that time if not for the virus.
Determining "true" cause of death for an infirm person (and there is a lot of nursing home residents and eldery people affected by this virus) may be challenging. Do we have to count someone who would pobably die within next week (say from late-stage cancer) - but got infected and died a few days early  - as a pandemic victim? What about someone who had a month to live?  6 months? 1 year? 10 years? 25 years?

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 01:59:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:18:39 AM
I'm pretty sure that some people would protest "No Shirt. No Shoes. No Service" policies if they came out today.

"No shirt, no shoes, no service" is a store policy, not a state ordinance.  Despite what the cute signs on the wall at Jimmy John's say, there is no state health code requiring people to wear shirts and shoes (at least in any state I'm aware of).  It was a way of keeping the hippies out.  Not wearing a shirt or shoes in no way affects the sanitation of the store or health of the employees and other customers.

To that end, stores are perfectly able to require their customers to wear masks, no matter what similar local ordinance may or may not say.

Shoes MAY affect sanitation as small objects on the floor can cause injury, and store needs either do a better cleaning or face possible liability AND blood contamination - aka biohazard - cleanup.

*** reminds me of the case when I picked 32 sharp shirt pins from the floor of Macy's fitting room. I was trying on something like jeans or slacks, so keeping shoes on wasn't an option... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 02:26:39 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 11, 2020, 12:47:19 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

Where is wearing a mask written into law? Passed by the legislature and signed by the governor?  Or passed by a city commission, town council?

Sure, there's a lot of executive orders - and those expire.  But any laws?


I meant to type "isn't a law most places."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 02:31:00 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 11, 2020, 12:29:00 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

If you fly on an airplane, the Patriot Act most certainly does impact your life every time you have to take your shoes off to board a plane, every time you're not allowed to take liquid soap or shampoo or mouthwash in a container more than 3 ounces on a plane, or you have to stand in line and empty your pockets and open up your laptop. If you travel by car across the border, just search through some of the posts on this forum to see how American citizens have been grilled upon trying to return home. And beyond that, just google "Edward Snowden" to find out just how intrusive the government is into everyday activities since 9/11.

Quote from: Bruce on May 10, 2020, 09:22:38 PM
Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.

Interesting. I've seen reports that the death toll is overcounted because people who have the virus, but didn't actually die of the virus, are being counted.


None of the bolded was authorized by the Patriot Act.  And it can be argued that only the border security was indirectly enhanced by it.

But regardless, none of those are daily occurances for most Americans.  Wearing a mask would be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 11, 2020, 02:34:12 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 02:13:01 PMDetermining "true" cause of death for an infirm person (and there is a lot of nursing home residents and eldery people affected by this virus) may be challenging. Do we have to count someone who would pobably die within next week (say from late-stage cancer) - but got infected and died a few days early  - as a pandemic victim? What about someone who had a month to live?  6 months? 1 year? 10 years? 25 years?

There is an analogy to what is sometimes called the "eggshell skull" doctrine in manslaughter cases.  The basic rule is "the defendant takes the victim as he finds him"--in other words, he or she is found criminally liable even if the victim is unusually frail in such a way that an identical attack would be readily survivable by a person in robust good health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 02:53:10 PM
Our family went out to eat at Applebee's yesterday for lunch.  It was our first time dining in at a restaurant since March 20.

The last time we went to Applebee's (a different location here in the same metro area), we had a terrible customer service experience.  It was so bad that, when the manager asked how everything had been, we laid it all out, and he didn't even offer us any money back or anything like it.  This experience was completely different.  We were attended by multiple waiters/waitresses, the manager stopped by to check on us partway through the meal, everyone was extremely polite and helpful, etc.  The waitress even walked us through using the tabletop credit card machine (which we already knew how to use), which is more than any waiter has ever done for us before.  Super great service!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 02:54:19 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 02:03:16 PM
So, today is my first day back in the office.

It feels kind of normal and kind of weird.  On the upside, I remembered to brush my teeth this morning, which has been difficult to remember while I was eating breakfast halfway through my morning.  On the downside, I have to make my own lunch in the morning instead of just waiting for my wife to call me out to the dining room for lunch.  On the upside, I have a decent copy machine at my disposal.  On the downside, I can no longer play CDs through my guitar amplifier while I work.

I've been telling my people to play music at night here at the office.  So far they have been hesitant to do because it might seem "unprofessional"  if someone hears a stray note or two in the admin area.  When this all started it was briefly discussed working from home but none of us thought it was viable and we needed to be on site.  My opinion hasn't really changed all that much but right now it's slow enough I feel like that I can justify people taking days off and not scheduling someone else.  My wife has been in the office only one day a week in her regular job this past 45 days.  I suspect they will tell her they are coming back at least partially later this week.  Given she is in Behavioral Health I would imagine that they are getting pushed to see people right now in person. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 02:56:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 10:40:05 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 11, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?


Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.


OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.
If anything, I would expect masks to become much more acceptable - not just Asian extravagance, but something socially accepted and even expected from those with even minor cold.
Hopefully same goes for handwashing.
I suspect that is the real reason many policy makers have been pushing masks as of late.  They're been pretty open about wanting to import this item of Asian culture into the Western world.  Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci basically called BS on all this mask wearing.  Sure, the "experts" are claiming "we now know the virus can spread asymptomatically" to try to debunk it, but let's be realistic: we knew that by the end of January, more than a month before Fauci gave that interview.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/preventing-coronavirus-facemask-60-minutes-2020-03-08/

As such, I would not at all be surprised if mask wearing is here to stay.  Masks might even become the new underwear.  Schools and workplaces were petri dishes even before coronavirus, it's just we didn't care much when it was just the cold and flu.  Given how many politicians keep talking about a "new normal" and whatnot (in Australia, Queensland even went so far as to add quarantine signs to their MUTCD!), I would not be surprised if the plan is to never end all these measures, just reduce them to an economically sustainable level.

I wonder how Uber drivers and others who are forced to wear masks while driving are faring.  I'm pretty sure I couldn't safely drive with a mask on because it constantly rides up and obstructs half to two thirds of my field of vision.

Quote from: mgk920 on May 11, 2020, 12:38:56 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 09, 2020, 03:56:19 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 09, 2020, 03:49:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 09, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Question:

What does military aircraft flying overhead have to do with the pandemic?  I've seen a couple of posts now about seeing them, and I don't get the connection.
Apparently the military aircrafts flying above are leaving chemtrials with more "corona virus or another human harming ingredient"


iPhone
Chemtrials? What are you, a conspiracy theorist?

Well, they do leave behind a mixture of chemicals, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, soot, etc.

Mike
Can we play this jingle (https://media.phoneboy.com/najingles/Chemtrails.mp3) when the subject comes up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 03:07:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 02:54:19 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 02:03:16 PM
So, today is my first day back in the office.

It feels kind of normal and kind of weird.  On the upside, I remembered to brush my teeth this morning, which has been difficult to remember while I was eating breakfast halfway through my morning.  On the downside, I have to make my own lunch in the morning instead of just waiting for my wife to call me out to the dining room for lunch.  On the upside, I have a decent copy machine at my disposal.  On the downside, I can no longer play CDs through my guitar amplifier while I work.

I've been telling my people to play music at night here at the office.  So far they have been hesitant to do because it might seem "unprofessional"  if someone hears a stray note or two in the admin area.  When this all started it was briefly discussed working from home but none of us thought it was viable and we needed to be on site.  My opinion hasn't really changed all that much but right now it's slow enough I feel like that I can justify people taking days off and not scheduling someone else.  My wife has been in the office only one day a week in her regular job this past 45 days.  I suspect they will tell her they are coming back at least partially later this week.  Given she is in Behavioral Health I would imagine that they are getting pushed to see people right now in person. 

I share an office with one other person, so I can't exactly play music very loudly.  Also, office drama happened a couple of years ago over something similar, so the only music technically allowed is the radio, because no one here in the office decides what comes over the air waves (other than choosing the station, of course).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 03:31:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 03:07:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 02:54:19 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 02:03:16 PM
So, today is my first day back in the office.

It feels kind of normal and kind of weird.  On the upside, I remembered to brush my teeth this morning, which has been difficult to remember while I was eating breakfast halfway through my morning.  On the downside, I have to make my own lunch in the morning instead of just waiting for my wife to call me out to the dining room for lunch.  On the upside, I have a decent copy machine at my disposal.  On the downside, I can no longer play CDs through my guitar amplifier while I work.

I've been telling my people to play music at night here at the office.  So far they have been hesitant to do because it might seem "unprofessional"  if someone hears a stray note or two in the admin area.  When this all started it was briefly discussed working from home but none of us thought it was viable and we needed to be on site.  My opinion hasn't really changed all that much but right now it's slow enough I feel like that I can justify people taking days off and not scheduling someone else.  My wife has been in the office only one day a week in her regular job this past 45 days.  I suspect they will tell her they are coming back at least partially later this week.  Given she is in Behavioral Health I would imagine that they are getting pushed to see people right now in person. 

I share an office with one other person, so I can't exactly play music very loudly.  Also, office drama happened a couple of years ago over something similar, so the only music technically allowed is the radio, because no one here in the office decides what comes over the air waves (other than choosing the station, of course).

My people are manning a security tower.  When I did what they do I listed to the radio, podcasts, and even sports events.  The problem with the main tower is that it is close to fussy office staff that gets particular about things like that.  Trouble is that they are all gone past 5 PM and it's an absolute ghost town.  Given the volume of potential people to annoy has gone down I see no reason to sit in silence.  Then again I've recommended headphone and/or earbuds too.  I would have to imagine lots more people will be bothering them for stuff in the months to come, but not any time short term. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 03:56:33 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 02:56:51 PM

I suspect that is the real reason many policy makers have been pushing masks as of late.  They're been pretty open about wanting to import this item of Asian culture into the Western world.  Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci basically called BS on all this mask wearing.  Sure, the "experts" are claiming "we now know the virus can spread asymptomatically" to try to debunk it, but let's be realistic: we knew that by the end of January, more than a month before Fauci gave that interview.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/preventing-coronavirus-facemask-60-minutes-2020-03-08/

The only time masks were not advised is when "leave them for professionals" was the tune.  That's when idea of homemade masks should come up, not weeks later.
Mask efficiency as being primarily the way to prevent people from exerting virus, not as a way to get from the environment, has to be clearly understood. But that seems to be too complicated for many people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 11, 2020, 04:12:52 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 02:56:51 PM
As such, I would not at all be surprised if mask wearing is here to stay.  Masks might even become the new underwear.  Schools and workplaces were petri dishes even before coronavirus, it's just we didn't care much when it was just the cold and flu.  Given how many politicians keep talking about a "new normal" and whatnot (in Australia, Queensland even went so far as to add quarantine signs to their MUTCD!), I would not be surprised if the plan is to never end all these measures, just reduce them to an economically sustainable level.

My gut feeling on this: no, once this is all over, we're not going to see most people still wearing masks everywhere. What I do think we might see, though, is people being more likely to do so whenever they have to go out and they already know they're sick, say with a minor affliction like a cold. (Ideally, that would also be the situation right now, but of course the biggest problem is that we don't know who's sick, so we sort of have to assume everyone is until we can get it figured out.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:18:04 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 11, 2020, 04:12:52 PM
My gut feeling on this: no, once this is all over, we're not going to see most people still wearing masks everywhere. What I do think we might see, though, is people being more likely to do so whenever they have to go out and they already know they're sick, say with a minor affliction like a cold. (Ideally, that would also be the situation right now, but of course the biggest problem is that we don't know who's sick, so we sort of have to assume everyone is until we can get it figured out.)

It's not like people know when they're sick otherwise, either.  Influenza is contagious before symptoms develop too.

For example, last time I had the flu, the earliest minor symptoms developed on New Year's Eve and took a turn for the worse late during the party at our house.  I'm sure I was highly contagious during the party, but I didn't realize it when people were arriving and giving me hugs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on May 11, 2020, 04:18:27 PM
Meat section in my local Costco today:

(https://i.imgur.com/3NqUE2G.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 04:26:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:18:04 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 11, 2020, 04:12:52 PM
My gut feeling on this: no, once this is all over, we're not going to see most people still wearing masks everywhere. What I do think we might see, though, is people being more likely to do so whenever they have to go out and they already know they're sick, say with a minor affliction like a cold. (Ideally, that would also be the situation right now, but of course the biggest problem is that we don't know who's sick, so we sort of have to assume everyone is until we can get it figured out.)

It's not like people know when they're sick otherwise, either.  Influenza is contagious before symptoms develop too.

For example, last time I had the flu, the earliest minor symptoms developed on New Year's Eve and took a turn for the worse late during the party at our house.  I'm sure I was highly contagious during the party, but I didn't realize it when people were arriving and giving me hugs.
It is not uncommon to disregard minor cold as a minor thing which doesn't warrant a stay at home and missing work or not going to the store etc. Thats when the mask may help big time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 11, 2020, 04:32:37 PM
Quote from: US 89 on May 11, 2020, 04:18:27 PM
Meat section in my local Costco today:

(https://i.imgur.com/3NqUE2G.jpg)

Maybe the refrigeration isn't working properly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:33:05 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 04:26:33 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:18:04 PM

Quote from: Eth on May 11, 2020, 04:12:52 PM
My gut feeling on this: no, once this is all over, we're not going to see most people still wearing masks everywhere. What I do think we might see, though, is people being more likely to do so whenever they have to go out and they already know they're sick, say with a minor affliction like a cold. (Ideally, that would also be the situation right now, but of course the biggest problem is that we don't know who's sick, so we sort of have to assume everyone is until we can get it figured out.)

It's not like people know when they're sick otherwise, either.  Influenza is contagious before symptoms develop too.

For example, last time I had the flu, the earliest minor symptoms developed on New Year's Eve and took a turn for the worse late during the party at our house.  I'm sure I was highly contagious during the party, but I didn't realize it when people were arriving and giving me hugs.

It is not uncommon to disregard minor cold as a minor thing which doesn't warrant a stay at home and missing work or not going to the store etc. Thats when the mask may help big time.

Oh, I get that.  The reason I replied is that Eth seemed to imply that "we don't know who's sick" is a phenomenon unique to COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 04:37:00 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 11, 2020, 04:32:37 PM
Quote from: US 89 on May 11, 2020, 04:18:27 PM
Meat section in my local Costco today:

(https://i.imgur.com/3NqUE2G.jpg)

Maybe the refrigeration isn't working properly?

I'm thinking it's probably good I really like eggs and can tolerate egg whites for the time being.  Then again considering I'm marathon training right now losing 10-15 pounds from a meatless diet wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  What did the Costco Ham supply look like?   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
My wife is on a diet that has her eating protein with every meal and pairing it with either fats or carbs–but not very much of both fats and carbs in the same meal.  Finding lean meat alternatives is not easy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 04:43:15 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 11, 2020, 04:32:37 PM
Quote from: US 89 on May 11, 2020, 04:18:27 PM
Meat section in my local Costco today:


Maybe the refrigeration isn't working properly?
It works for fish, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 04:44:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
My wife is on a diet that has her eating protein with every meal and pairing it with either fats or carbs–but not very much of both fats and carbs in the same meal.  Finding lean meat alternatives is not easy.

Hard boiled egg or two with every meal.  Depending on the size that's a good 6-8 grams of protein if the yolk is pulled.  Only trouble is that it tends to bring on "other problems"  if someone has a sensitive stomach.  Protein bars/meal replacement bars are another good one to go to.  The Cliff Builders Bars I regular have 20g of protein in them and actually function decently as a snack. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:48:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 04:44:46 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
My wife is on a diet that has her eating protein with every meal and pairing it with either fats or carbs–but not very much of both fats and carbs in the same meal.  Finding lean meat alternatives is not easy.

Hard boiled egg or two with every meal.  Depending on the size that's a good 6-8 grams of protein if the yolk is pulled.  Only trouble is that it tends to bring on "other problems"  if someone has a sensitive stomach.  Protein bars/meal replacement bars are another good one to go to.  The Cliff Builders Bars I regular have 20g of protein in them and actually function decently as a snack.

Yes, she eats scrambled egg whites with Canadian bacon and veggies mixed in for breakfast.  But it's not easy to figure out a dinner plan for a family of five that features egg whites as the main protein–week after week.  Chicken features prominently in our meal plans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 04:57:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:48:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 04:44:46 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
My wife is on a diet that has her eating protein with every meal and pairing it with either fats or carbs–but not very much of both fats and carbs in the same meal.  Finding lean meat alternatives is not easy.

Hard boiled egg or two with every meal.  Depending on the size that's a good 6-8 grams of protein if the yolk is pulled.  Only trouble is that it tends to bring on "other problems"  if someone has a sensitive stomach.  Protein bars/meal replacement bars are another good one to go to.  The Cliff Builders Bars I regular have 20g of protein in them and actually function decently as a snack.

Yes, she eats scrambled egg whites with Canadian bacon and veggies mixed in for breakfast.  But it's not easy to figure out a dinner plan for a family of five that features egg whites as the main protein–week after week.  Chicken features prominently in our meal plans.

When I was doing that regularly it was for two reason; one I was training for police tests and needed to build muscle, secondly because in my late teens/early 20s because I couldn't afford much lean meat...or anywhere close to what I needed.  At the time I was going for about 250g of protein or about 1.5g of lean body mass I weighed at the time.  The real pain in the ass was trying to consume 400-500g of carbs.  That was a crap ton of fruits and veggies.  None of it was really designed for long term.  I suppose in a "food shortage"  or short term diet it might be viable.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 05:25:24 PM
QuoteCDC finds New York City coronavirus death toll may be much worse than official tally
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/cdc-finds-additional-5000-nyc-deaths-possibly-linked-to-coronavirus.html

U.S. health officials have identified 5,000 fatalities in New York City that may have been caused by Covid-19 but weren't counted as part of the official coronavirus death toll, the CDC said Monday.

If what the CDC says is true, the total deaths in NYC due to COVID would be nearly 25k.  If we assume a 0.6% fatality rate (which is the highest fatality rate of various worldwide antibody tests), that would mean roughly 4.2 million people living in NYC have antibodies to the virus (or about half the population).  When Governor Cuomo was reporting on New York antibody testing he reported the fatality rate of the virus in the state appeared to be about 0.5%.  At that fatality rate  that would equate to 5 million people in NYC having antibodies to the virus (or 60% of the population).  NYC may be close to herd immunity.  In Mid-April at the worst of the outbreak NY was seeing 6,868 weekly deaths due to the virus compared to 2,222 weekly deaths now.  That's a 67% reduction in deaths.  I feel like residents of NYC would literally have to take off their face masks and intentionally cough on each other to get back to the number of deaths the city was seeing in mid-April (or put another way i believe the virus has pretty much run its course in NYC). And just look at the drop in deaths:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=New+York&doublingtime=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 05:40:06 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 05:25:24 PM
QuoteCDC finds New York City coronavirus death toll may be much worse than official tally
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/cdc-finds-additional-5000-nyc-deaths-possibly-linked-to-coronavirus.html

U.S. health officials have identified 5,000 fatalities in New York City that may have been caused by Covid-19 but weren't counted as part of the official coronavirus death toll, the CDC said Monday.

If what the CDC says is true, the total deaths in NYC due to COVID would be nearly 25k.  If we assume a 0.6% fatality rate (which is the highest fatality rate of various worldwide antibody tests), that would mean roughly 4.2 million people living in NYC have antibodies to the virus (or about half the population).  When Governor Cuomo was reporting on New York antibody testing he reported the fatality rate of the virus in the state appeared to be about 0.5%.  At that fatality rate  that would equate to 5 million people in NYC having antibodies to the virus (or 60% of the population).  NYC may be close to herd immunity.  In Mid-April at the worst of the outbreak NY was seeing 6,868 weekly deaths due to the virus compared to 2,222 weekly deaths now.  That's a 67% reduction in deaths.  I feel like residents of NYC would literally have to take off their face masks and intentionally cough on each other to get back to the number of deaths the city was seeing in mid-April (or put another way i believe the virus has pretty much run its course in NYC). And just look at the drop in deaths:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=New+York&doublingtime=3
Nope. It doesn't mean that there are more immune people, it means that death rates are underestimated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 06:06:01 PM
NYC:
Population - 8.39 million
COVID deaths - 19,931

Los Angeles County: 
Population - 10.04 million
COVID deaths - 1,530

There seems to be a big disconnect between deaths in NYC and LA. Unless if there are 20k unreported COVID deaths in Los Angeles County, NYC has been hit much harder than LA (which also means the herd immunity in NYC is much greater than Southern California).  Upon reopening it's reasonable to assume that Southern California is in greater danger to seeing a spike in cases (since NYC has already gone through hell and experienced around 20k deaths... as much as 25k deaths according to new reports from the CDC).  If we see a second wave, it's likely to hit California hard while NYC will largely be spared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on May 11, 2020, 06:07:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 04:37:00 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 11, 2020, 04:32:37 PM
Quote from: US 89 on May 11, 2020, 04:18:27 PM
Meat section in my local Costco today:

(https://i.imgur.com/3NqUE2G.jpg)

Maybe the refrigeration isn't working properly?

I’m thinking it’s probably good I really like eggs and can tolerate egg whites for the time being.  Then again considering I’m marathon training right now losing 10-15 pounds from a meatless diet wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.  What did the Costco Ham supply look like?

They were out of essentially all meat products. The only non-processed meats I recall seeing off the top of my head were fish (what you see in that photo is about 1/4 of what they had) and rotisserie chickens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 11, 2020, 06:14:43 PM
NYC: Land area: 302 sq miles.
LA County: Land area: 4,751 sq miles.

Not even in the same ballpark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 06:19:17 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 11, 2020, 06:14:43 PM
NYC: Land area: 302 sq miles.
LA County: Land area: 4,751 sq miles.

Not even in the same ballpark.

San Francisco is the onto County/City even close to the density of NYC in California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 06:51:32 PM
What is the density of LA and Detroit?  Wayne County (population 1.75 million) has 2,105 COVID deaths while Los Angeles County (population 10.04 million) has 1,530 deaths.  Is Detroit really going to see more COVID deaths than LA when this is all said and done?  California looks to be on the verge of an outbreak even in the midst of a lock down.  Yeah i get it.. more testing is why they are seeing a rise in cases but New York is doing more testing and they are seeing their cases drop precipitously (as is Michigan and listening to Gretchen Whitmer's press conference today they have nearly tripled testing capacity):

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=Michigan&location=New+York&doublingtime=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 06:56:34 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 06:51:32 PM
What is the density of LA and Detroit?  Wayne County (population 1.75 million) has 2,105 COVID deaths while Los Angeles County (population 10.04 million) has 1,530 deaths.  Is Detroit really going to see more COVID deaths than LA when this is all said and done?  California looks to be on the verge of an outbreak even in the midst of a lock down.  Yeah i get it.. more testing is why that's happening but New York is doing more testing too and they are seeing their cases drop precipitously (not the case for Cali).   

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=New+York&doublingtime=3

Detroit is way the hell down density wise from when it had 1.8 million residents.  The density is still around 4,900 per square mile but you would hardly know it visiting the city (my home town).   What I don't get with Detroit is how people are contracting COVID when there is almost no big box retail in the entire city (seriously it is crazy how little there is in the City limit).  Wayne County is about 3,000 people per square mile.  Even my cousin ended up getting a confirmed case working out in Wayne County. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 07:04:37 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 06:56:34 PM
Detroit is way the hell down density wise from when it had 1.8 million residents.  The density is still around 4,900 per square mile but you would hardly know it visiting the city (my home town).   What I don't get with Detroit is how people are contracting COVID when there is almost no big box retail in the entire city (seriously it is crazy how little there is in the City limit).  Wayne County is about 3,000 people per square mile.  Even my cousin ended up getting a confirmed case working out in Wayne County. 

It really is pretty insane.  Short of the Woodward corridor most of downtown are parking lots and the residential areas of the city look like this:

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/12/16/2413746B00000578-0-image-a-36_1418690525724.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 11, 2020, 07:09:55 PM
The demographics of coronavirus cases is also about economic disparity. The hardest-hit populations are Hispanic/Latino and African American communities, where residents are more likely to be essential workers exposed to the public instead of working from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 07:29:31 PM
^^^

Suffice to say that Detroit by American standards is second to none when it comes to poverty.  A lot of bad things have happened over the decades which are probably playing a huge factor in the current pandemic. 

Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 07:04:37 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 06:56:34 PM
Detroit is way the hell down density wise from when it had 1.8 million residents.  The density is still around 4,900 per square mile but you would hardly know it visiting the city (my home town).   What I don't get with Detroit is how people are contracting COVID when there is almost no big box retail in the entire city (seriously it is crazy how little there is in the City limit).  Wayne County is about 3,000 people per square mile.  Even my cousin ended up getting a confirmed case working out in Wayne County. 

It really is pretty insane.  Short of the Woodward corridor most of downtown are parking lots and the residential areas of the city look like this:

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/12/16/2413746B00000578-0-image-a-36_1418690525724.jpg)

Yeah, it's kind of fun actually going out ruin hunting like one would on a ghost town hunt...at least I think so.  Woodward really caught me off guard last year.  I would have never thought I'd would see the day when young people and business wanted to be in downtown Detroit.  The light rail line was especially a surprise after the infamous years of the People Mover.  North of downtown Woodward really cleaned up, especially around the Red Wings new arena and Wayne State. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 11, 2020, 07:38:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:33:05 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 04:26:33 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 11, 2020, 04:18:04 PM

Quote from: Eth on May 11, 2020, 04:12:52 PM
My gut feeling on this: no, once this is all over, we're not going to see most people still wearing masks everywhere. What I do think we might see, though, is people being more likely to do so whenever they have to go out and they already know they're sick, say with a minor affliction like a cold. (Ideally, that would also be the situation right now, but of course the biggest problem is that we don't know who's sick, so we sort of have to assume everyone is until we can get it figured out.)

It's not like people know when they're sick otherwise, either.  Influenza is contagious before symptoms develop too.

For example, last time I had the flu, the earliest minor symptoms developed on New Year's Eve and took a turn for the worse late during the party at our house.  I'm sure I was highly contagious during the party, but I didn't realize it when people were arriving and giving me hugs.

It is not uncommon to disregard minor cold as a minor thing which doesn't warrant a stay at home and missing work or not going to the store etc. Thats when the mask may help big time.

Oh, I get that.  The reason I replied is that Eth seemed to imply that "we don't know who's sick" is a phenomenon unique to COVID-19.

Sorry, that's not what I meant to imply. kalvado's response pretty much hits on what I was trying to say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 07:46:00 PM
Lengthy article on the state of the domestic automakers now versus the "Great Recession:"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/coronavirus-detroits-automakers-have-enough-cash-to-last-the-year-without-a-bailout.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 11, 2020, 07:56:36 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 11, 2020, 09:32:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't. The whole point of requiring masks is so that people don't get sick.

The ordinances may go away, but it seems likely that at least some people will be wearing masks in public for a long, long, time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 09:00:10 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 11, 2020, 07:56:36 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 11, 2020, 09:32:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't. The whole point of requiring masks is so that people don't get sick.

The ordinances may go away, but it seems likely that at least some people will be wearing masks in public for a long, long, time.
Let me put it so. I personally would not feel weird to wear a mask around if I have a running nose. Did that literally once or twice before when I went to doctor with a pretty bad one and it was.... Strange.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 11, 2020, 09:28:55 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

I don't think that's likely.  There's no real benefit to it.  Law enforcement really doesn't like people being harder to identify.  Governments aren't so in love with control that they're willing to make bad policy that also makes crime easier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 09:48:50 PM
So many of you are talking about mask requirements, but how many of you have mandated temperature checks and screening questionnaires?  I deal with both daily at one of the four local agencies I interact with.  The external temperature check seems like an odd one to me given that it scan wildly one way or the other depending if the person was sitting in a cold car or out in the sun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:52:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 09:48:50 PM
So many of you are talking about mask requirements, but how many of you have mandated temperature checks and screening questionnaires?

A temperature check seems acceptable to me. It seems like there was one time I was entering a restaurant and they did this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 09:58:00 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:52:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 09:48:50 PM
So many of you are talking about mask requirements, but how many of you have mandated temperature checks and screening questionnaires?

A temperature check seems acceptable to me. It seems like there was one time I was entering a restaurant and they did this.

I did test ours out to see how wild of a variance I could get.  I came in reading 97.8F after sitting in a normally air conditioned car.  I went outside for a good hour when it was about 95F out and I really 100.8F afterwards.  The next morning I cranked the AC up to full blast for the last ten miles coming into work and measured 93.6F.  I guess that if someone measured under 100F on a rescan after 5-10 minutes they are probably fine but it didn't seem anywhere as accurate as people were trying to convince me of. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 11, 2020, 10:14:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 09:58:00 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:52:32 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 11, 2020, 09:48:50 PM
So many of you are talking about mask requirements, but how many of you have mandated temperature checks and screening questionnaires?

A temperature check seems acceptable to me. It seems like there was one time I was entering a restaurant and they did this.

I did test ours out to see how wild of a variance I could get.  I came in reading 97.8F after sitting in a normally air conditioned car.  I went outside for a good hour when it was about 95F out and I really 100.8F afterwards.  The next morning I cranked the AC up to full blast for the last ten miles coming into work and measured 93.6F.  I guess that if someone measured under 100F on a rescan after 5-10 minutes they are probably fine but it didn't seem anywhere as accurate as people were trying to convince me of.
I assume forehead temperature read is sort of a compromise between being too intrusive and being able to detect those obviously sick. These readers may have a better chance in a year or so as investment into improvement of those would be eye watering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Temperature checks strike me as security theater as well.  Not only is there huge variation if you were out in the cold, exercising, etc., but given that a lot (I would guess most) of the spread is from asymptomatic people that wouldn't have fevers, it doesn't seems like there's much point.

Quote from: Eth on May 11, 2020, 04:12:52 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 02:56:51 PM
As such, I would not at all be surprised if mask wearing is here to stay.  Masks might even become the new underwear.  Schools and workplaces were petri dishes even before coronavirus, it's just we didn't care much when it was just the cold and flu.  Given how many politicians keep talking about a "new normal" and whatnot (in Australia, Queensland even went so far as to add quarantine signs to their MUTCD!), I would not be surprised if the plan is to never end all these measures, just reduce them to an economically sustainable level.

My gut feeling on this: no, once this is all over, we're not going to see most people still wearing masks everywhere. What I do think we might see, though, is people being more likely to do so whenever they have to go out and they already know they're sick, say with a minor affliction like a cold. (Ideally, that would also be the situation right now, but of course the biggest problem is that we don't know who's sick, so we sort of have to assume everyone is until we can get it figured out.)
That would require the states currently mandating mask wearing to eventually rescind the executive orders requiring it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on May 11, 2020, 11:59:17 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 11, 2020, 06:06:01 PM
NYC:
Population - 8.39 million
COVID deaths - 19,931

Los Angeles County: 
Population - 10.04 million
COVID deaths - 1,530

There seems to be a big disconnect between deaths in NYC and LA. Unless if there are 20k unreported COVID deaths in Los Angeles County, NYC has been hit much harder than LA (which also means the herd immunity in NYC is much greater than Southern California).  Upon reopening it's reasonable to assume that Southern California is in greater danger to seeing a spike in cases (since NYC has already gone through hell and experienced around 20k deaths... as much as 25k deaths according to new reports from the CDC).  If we see a second wave, it's likely to hit California hard while NYC will largely be spared.
NYC consists of five separate counties.
LA only has one.

The overwhelming majority of deaths in NYC has been in Queen County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 12, 2020, 12:36:12 AM
North Dakota cancels its state fair. For those of you on the coasts, the state and county fairs are a BFD in these parts.

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/05/11/coronavirus-impact-north-dakota-state-fair-canceled-due-to-covid-19/?utm_campaign=true_anthem&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=social
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 12, 2020, 01:16:14 AM
Quote from: wxfree on May 11, 2020, 09:28:55 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

I don't think that's likely.  There's no real benefit to it.  Law enforcement really doesn't like people being harder to identify.  Governments aren't so in love with control that they're willing to make bad policy that also makes crime easier.

Why is it not a problem for law enforcement in Japan?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 01:21:27 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Temperature checks strike me as security theater as well.  Not only is there huge variation if you were out in the cold, exercising, etc., but given that a lot (I would guess most) of the spread is from asymptomatic people that wouldn't have fevers, it doesn't seems like there's much point.

They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

The way you make this actually effective is if someone fails a temperature check, you immediately whisk them away to get tested. And then, if they test positive, you identify everyone they've been in close contact with in the past few days and isolate them (unless they're already immune in which case they'd be exempt from the isolation requirement).

Once someone has a fever, yes, they will have already potentially infected others. But if you can quickly identify who those others may be, you can isolate them before they become contagious. Find the virus' potential kids before they have a chance to make grandkids, if you will. South Korea stamped out the virus domestically on this strategy alone - it can be effective if done right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 12, 2020, 01:50:25 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has a much higher death count than any of the other Scandinavian countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 12, 2020, 01:57:14 AM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 12, 2020, 12:36:12 AM
North Dakota cancels its state fair. For those of you on the coasts, the state and county fairs are a BFD in these parts.

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/05/11/coronavirus-impact-north-dakota-state-fair-canceled-due-to-covid-19/?utm_campaign=true_anthem&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=social

The Evergreen State Fair was cancelled a while ago. We have multiple state fairs, despite the stereotype.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 12, 2020, 02:10:40 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 09:40:33 AM
Well, the reservations are sort of like countries, and countries have border checkpoints.

An island would be similar. If my town was an island, why wouldn't I want it blocked from the rest of the country during a pandemic? As far as I'm concerned, people could move about the island all they want. But would I want the rest of the country visiting? If a visitor could be quickly tested for coronavirus, I probably wouldn't have a problem though. But I'm not sure if that's doable.
None of the reservations in Oklahoma have checkpoints. I work on the Osage reservation, and I've never heard of checkpoints.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 12, 2020, 02:11:38 AM
Quote from: GaryV on May 10, 2020, 09:51:27 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.

Until the 2nd wave hits.
The second wave will be much worse than the first one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 12, 2020, 02:13:37 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
That would require the states currently mandating mask wearing to eventually rescind the executive orders requiring it.

In some states, such executive orders are tied to emergency declarations, that unlike Federal emergency declarations don't last forever unless a governor acts to renew a declaration (like South Carolina's governor, who's kept on a short leash, apparently has to do every 15 days).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 12, 2020, 02:19:18 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 10, 2020, 03:32:54 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 10, 2020, 09:39:05 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 07:45:37 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 09, 2020, 10:04:20 PM
Also, if you estimate the number of new cases today to account for the number of tests, there were 44,224 cases nationwide - the lowest since March 25. This contrasts with the estimated 171,462 new cases on April 9.

Another positive metric: Using a 7-day rolling average, this number has declined by at least 2,972 on each of the past 5 days. If it keeps up at this rate, the number of new cases will be a drop in the bucket within weeks.
Beautiful. Keep up the good work everyone


iPhone

Except that we're not going to keep it up because all the states are relaxing restrictions.  That trend will reverse soon.
^He's right, you know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 12, 2020, 02:22:39 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 11, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?
About $3.50.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on May 12, 2020, 02:45:22 AM
This graph shows the number of cases in Oklahoma. It hasn't come anywhere near peaking. Opening things up too soon will be disastrous.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200512/268917a59861b9b2a9eb5092fc3bd489.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 12, 2020, 08:03:47 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 01:21:27 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Temperature checks strike me as security theater as well.  Not only is there huge variation if you were out in the cold, exercising, etc., but given that a lot (I would guess most) of the spread is from asymptomatic people that wouldn't have fevers, it doesn't seems like there's much point.

They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

The way you make this actually effective is if someone fails a temperature check, you immediately whisk them away to get tested. And then, if they test positive, you identify everyone they've been in close contact with in the past few days and isolate them (unless they're already immune in which case they'd be exempt from the isolation requirement).

Once someone has a fever, yes, they will have already potentially infected others. But if you can quickly identify who those others may be, you can isolate them before they become contagious. Find the virus' potential kids before they have a chance to make grandkids, if you will. South Korea stamped out the virus domestically on this strategy alone - it can be effective if done right.
For one, I would follow up on fever check with some diligence. I may withhold full immediate action and wait for some time to see if there was a measurement glitch, but ignoring is not an option. I don't really see ignoring as an option for anyone, but maybe I am too optimistic?...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:07:12 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 01:21:27 AM
Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Temperature checks strike me as security theater as well.  Not only is there huge variation if you were out in the cold, exercising, etc., but given that a lot (I would guess most) of the spread is from asymptomatic people that wouldn't have fevers, it doesn't seems like there's much point.

They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

The way you make this actually effective is if someone fails a temperature check, you immediately whisk them away to get tested. And then, if they test positive, you identify everyone they've been in close contact with in the past few days and isolate them (unless they're already immune in which case they'd be exempt from the isolation requirement).

Once someone has a fever, yes, they will have already potentially infected others. But if you can quickly identify who those others may be, you can isolate them before they become contagious. Find the virus' potential kids before they have a chance to make grandkids, if you will. South Korea stamped out the virus domestically on this strategy alone - it can be effective if done right.

In my case, we aren't capable of whisking people off to some dark room and COVID testing them...we would have to rely and telling them to get tested.  All we can do is basically turn them away and call it a day.  Given the wild variance in the temperature scan portion I wouldn't count on that being anywhere close enough to warrant a test anyways.  Even if someone was to test positive there is very little that can be done in regarding to the so called "contact tracing."    About the best thing possible is review camera footage, but there is no guarantee the person stays in one place.  Even still how long is too long of expose, how do you notify those exposed, and what do you do with people exposed?  One person has the real potential to send a dozen or more works home for two weeks possibly under the pretense of monitoring. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 08:31:32 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 12, 2020, 01:50:25 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has a much higher death count than any of the other Scandinavian countries.

Compared to many places in Europe, it's pretty low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 08:37:24 AM
Yesterday, the United States released a record number of tests, yet reported fewer new cases than any day since March 26. The percentage of tests that came back positive fell from 7.25% to 4.62%, the lowest since March 4.

When weighted with the number of new tests, the number of new cases would be less than one-tenth of what they were at their peak, and the lowest since March 19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 12, 2020, 08:38:10 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 08:31:32 AM
Quote from: bugo on May 12, 2020, 01:50:25 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.
Sweden has a much higher death count than any of the other Scandinavian countries.

Compared to many places in Europe, it's pretty low.

Look per capita, or as a percentage of total cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 08:45:07 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 08:38:10 AM
Look per capita, or as a percentage of total cases.

Per capita. It's much lower in Sweden than it is in Britain, Italy, France, Spain, and Belgium.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 08:46:15 AM
Here is the estimated herd immunity for each state.  To achieve these estimates it was assumed that the mortality rate of the virus is 0.4%.  The key takeaway is there are a LOT of states that haven't had much exposure to the virus.  When things got shut down the big outbreaks were seen in the NE, Louisiana, and Michigan.  Now that things are reopening will other states with low immunity start to see their big outbreaks?  Moving forward I'm more concerned for the residents of California (1.76% immunity) and Texas (0.99% immunity) than i am for New York (34.7% immunity):

(https://i.imgur.com/yI4m9oZ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 12, 2020, 08:55:10 AM
New York shouldn't blanket reopen. The NYC area and upstate are completely different.

What should be the first thing to reopen? I'm imagining things like jewelry stores, antique shops, and other stores where you probably have only one or two customers in the store at a time and the single worker is behind a desk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 08:59:42 AM
You can't just reopen everything completely - yet. It's coming, but not quite yet.

Some school districts in Montana have already reopened, so it's coming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:10:55 AM
The fact that Sweden has more deaths right now than their Nordic neighbors doesn't mean their strategy isn't working.  In the end of this pandemic, if Sweden has lower deaths per capita than Norway will it really matter if those deaths were front-loaded or back-loaded?  Similarly just because California has seen 1/10th the number of COVID deaths than New York (even though they are twice the population) doesn't mean they are going to end up with lower deaths at the end of this pandemic.  What does seem like a silly strategy is keeping everything shuttered even after you've gained herd immunity.  There is enough data to suggest that a high level of herd immunity has been achieved in the NYC area and perhaps they could rollout their reopening plans at a quicker pace.  I'd almost be more concerned opening up Buffalo at this point than NYC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 12, 2020, 09:18:13 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:10:55 AM
The fact that Sweden has more deaths right now than their Nordic neighbors doesn't mean their strategy isn't working.  In the end of this pandemic, if Sweden has lower deaths per capita than Norway will it really matter if those deaths were front-loaded or back-loaded?  Similarly just because California has seen 1/10th the number of COVID deaths than New York (even though they are twice the population) doesn't mean they are going to end up with lower deaths at the end of this pandemic.  What does seem like a silly strategy is keeping everything shuttered even after you've gained herd immunity.  There is enough data to suggest that a high level of herd immunity has been achieved in the NYC area and perhaps they could rollout their reopening plans at a quicker pace.  I'd almost be more concerned opening up Buffalo at this point than NYC.

We have a drug that reduces deaths by 1/3 for those who already have COVID-19. It's likely that this 1/3 will keep getting better as we find new drugs. A later peak means that we can take more advantage of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 09:23:40 AM
To 1's point regarding tradephoric's chart:  what I'd like to see is the same analysis, but broken down for each state into three categories:  urban, suburban, rural - population, confirmed, and deaths.  I'd be willing to guess that there are some wider variances.

Because then the follow-up questions are:
How isolated are the rural areas, which anecdotally are seeing very little impact so far?  Are they quite isolated, such as far northern CA and Montana, for example?  Or are they less so, like, say, the eastern short of MD, which is rural but close to BC, Baltimore, Philly?  Because the next question in line is:  if you extend shut downs in urban areas but the neighboring suburban areas are reopened, will people in the urban areas "bombard" the suburban areas?  Or the less isolated rural areas?

And then...what is the hospital capacity in each state's categories?  Can the urban areas withstand even a small cluster?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 09:31:07 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:10:55 AM
The fact that Sweden has more deaths right now than their Nordic neighbors doesn't mean their strategy isn't working.  In the end of this pandemic, if Sweden has lower deaths per capita than Norway will it really matter if those deaths were front-loaded or back-loaded?  Similarly just because California has seen 1/10th the number of COVID deaths than New York (even though they are twice the population) doesn't mean they are going to end up with lower deaths at the end of this pandemic.  What does seem like a silly strategy is keeping everything shuttered even after you've gained herd immunity.  There is enough data to suggest that a high level of herd immunity has been achieved in the NYC area and perhaps they could rollout their reopening plans at a quicker pace.  I'd almost be more concerned opening up Buffalo at this point than NYC.

You're misusing the term herd immunity.  Herd immunity - the percentage of a population's immunity that reduces the spread of a pandemic...doesn't occur until at least 60% and that's the low end. The high end is 90%.  And it is gradual.

What you're looking for is the R0 factor - the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.  An R0 factor below 1.0 slows the spread, above 1.0 increases the spread.  The initial estimated R0 for COVID-19 was 2.5.  The more immune the population is, the lower the R0 becomes...that's what you're looking for.

New York...at 35% immunity...is only now halfway to where a R0 factor of < 1.0 is possible without vaccines and without physical distancing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:56:11 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:18:13 AM
We have a drug that reduces deaths by 1/3 for those who already have COVID-19. It's likely that this 1/3 will keep getting better as we find new drugs. A later peak means that we can take more advantage of this.

Are you referring to Gilead's drug Remdesivir?  I read a study where the mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8% compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; but that the mortality difference was not statistically significant.  What drug is seeing a 1/3 reduction in deaths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 12, 2020, 09:58:03 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:56:11 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:18:13 AM
We have a drug that reduces deaths by 1/3 for those who already have COVID-19. It's likely that this 1/3 will keep getting better as we find new drugs. A later peak means that we can take more advantage of this.

Are you referring to Gilead's drug Remdesivir?  I read a study where the mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8% compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; but that the mortality difference was not statistically significant.  What drug is seeing a 1/3 reduction in deaths?

1 - 8%/11.6% ≈ 1/3. I didn't realize that it was statistically insignificant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 09:31:07 AM
You're misusing the term herd immunity.  Herd immunity - the percentage of a population's immunity that reduces the spread of a pandemic...doesn't occur until at least 60% and that's the low end. The high end is 90%.  And it is gradual.

What you're looking for is the R0 factor - the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.  An R0 factor below 1.0 slows the spread, above 1.0 increases the spread.  The initial estimated R0 for COVID-19 was 2.5.  The more immune the population is, the lower the R0 becomes...that's what you're looking for.

New York...at 35% immunity...is only now halfway to where a R0 factor of < 1.0 is possible without vaccines and without physical distancing. 

The CDC just estimated that NYC has had around 25k COVID deaths.  On May 9th Governor Cuomo said that 19.9% of people tested for antibodies in New York City tested positive.  Also when Governor Cuomo was announcing the antibody results, he said the fatality rate in New York appeared to be 0.5%.  But these numbers don't add up.  Assuming the deaths and mortality are correct, than immunity would be 60%.  If deaths and immunity are correct, than mortality would be 1.5%.  If mortality and immunity are correct, then deaths would need to be revised down to 8,300.  What is going on here?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 10:58:58 AM
Johns Hopkins lists the mortality rate of the virus.  There are several countries with case mortality rates below 1%.  There are other countries with much higher case mortality rates, but that indicates more a lack of testing than the virus being more deadly there. 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

So bringing this discussion back to NYC, it's hard to believe the mortality rate would be 1.5% in NYC when other countries are seeing case mortality rates much lower than that (with some below 0.5%).  Also there has been a lot of talk to the actual number of COVID deaths, but it's relatively straight forward to estimate the number of deaths you would expect to see in a region during a given time period.  In a report released Monday the CDC found between March 11 and May 2, about 24,000 more people died in the city than researchers would ordinarily expect during that time period (which ends up being about 5,300 more deaths than were blamed on the coronavirus in official tallies).  So if anything, it appears that NYC is underreporting COVID deaths.  If it's safe to say there have been over 20k COVID deaths in NYC and the mortality rate is about 0.5%, than over half of NYC population should have antibodies (but officials are saying only about 20% of people in NYC have antibodies). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 11:09:26 AM
Tradephoric - good questions.  and if anything you're questioning the 34.7% you showed above when stating that NYS is close to herd immunity (if herd immunity is reached at 60% for COVID-19 and not 90%...that remains to be seen, since herd immunity is not a metric that is applicable at the same rate for all diseases), when NYS is not.  NYC might be.  Not NYS.  Which is good for NYC.  And maybe North Jersey and SE CT and Westchester County NY...and some others. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 11:42:23 AM
^Yeah that 34.7% wasn't meant to suggest that New York State as a whole was gaining herd immunity.  Of the 3 main data points that New York State officials have shared (deaths, mortality rate, antibody results) two are relatively easy to verify (deaths & mortality rate).  That really puts the antibody testing into question.  If officials say that 20% of the population have antibodies when the other data points suggest that number has to be closer to 60%.  Am i missing something here?  This is my math.

(Deaths / Mortality) / Population = % antibodies

Where:
Deaths = 25,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm)
Mortality = 0.5% (https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html)
Population = 8,400,000

(25,000 / 0.005) / 8,400,000 = 59.5% antibodies
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 11:53:22 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 09:31:07 AM

Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:10:55 AM
The fact that Sweden has more deaths right now than their Nordic neighbors doesn't mean their strategy isn't working.  In the end of this pandemic, if Sweden has lower deaths per capita than Norway will it really matter if those deaths were front-loaded or back-loaded?  Similarly just because California has seen 1/10th the number of COVID deaths than New York (even though they are twice the population) doesn't mean they are going to end up with lower deaths at the end of this pandemic.  What does seem like a silly strategy is keeping everything shuttered even after you've gained herd immunity.  There is enough data to suggest that a high level of herd immunity has been achieved in the NYC area and perhaps they could rollout their reopening plans at a quicker pace.  I'd almost be more concerned opening up Buffalo at this point than NYC.

You're misusing the term herd immunity.  Herd immunity - the percentage of a population's immunity that reduces the spread of a pandemic...doesn't occur until at least 60% and that's the low end. The high end is 90%.  And it is gradual.

What you're looking for is the R0 factor - the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.  An R0 factor below 1.0 slows the spread, above 1.0 increases the spread.  The initial estimated R0 for COVID-19 was 2.5.  The more immune the population is, the lower the R0 becomes...that's what you're looking for.

New York...at 35% immunity...is only now halfway to where a R0 factor of < 1.0 is possible without vaccines and without physical distancing. 

Allow me to also reiterate that we don't know how long the immune system hangs onto SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.  This means we don't know how long a person who has contracted the virus actually remains immune.  Even if 70% of the population contracts the virus, that does little good if that same 70% gradually lose their immunity before the epidemic dies down.  Our immune system hangs onto antibodies for some pathogens for years, but for others it's only months or even weeks.  So all this talk about herd immunity only goes so far, until we know how long a recovered person actually remains immune.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 11:56:35 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 11:53:22 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 09:31:07 AM

Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:10:55 AM
The fact that Sweden has more deaths right now than their Nordic neighbors doesn't mean their strategy isn't working.  In the end of this pandemic, if Sweden has lower deaths per capita than Norway will it really matter if those deaths were front-loaded or back-loaded?  Similarly just because California has seen 1/10th the number of COVID deaths than New York (even though they are twice the population) doesn't mean they are going to end up with lower deaths at the end of this pandemic.  What does seem like a silly strategy is keeping everything shuttered even after you've gained herd immunity.  There is enough data to suggest that a high level of herd immunity has been achieved in the NYC area and perhaps they could rollout their reopening plans at a quicker pace.  I'd almost be more concerned opening up Buffalo at this point than NYC.

You're misusing the term herd immunity.  Herd immunity - the percentage of a population's immunity that reduces the spread of a pandemic...doesn't occur until at least 60% and that's the low end. The high end is 90%.  And it is gradual.

What you're looking for is the R0 factor - the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.  An R0 factor below 1.0 slows the spread, above 1.0 increases the spread.  The initial estimated R0 for COVID-19 was 2.5.  The more immune the population is, the lower the R0 becomes...that's what you're looking for.

New York...at 35% immunity...is only now halfway to where a R0 factor of < 1.0 is possible without vaccines and without physical distancing. 

Allow me to also reiterate that we don't know how long the immune system hangs onto SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.  This means we don't know how long a person who has contracted the virus actually remains immune.  Even if 70% of the population contracts the virus, that does little good if that same 70% gradually lose their immunity before the epidemic dies down.  Our immune system hangs onto antibodies for some pathogens for years, but for others it's only months or even weeks.  So all this talk about herd immunity only goes so far, until we know how long a recovered person actually remains immune.

CORRECT.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 12:25:42 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 08:38:10 AM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 08:31:32 AM

Quote from: bugo on May 12, 2020, 01:50:25 AM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
I just wish we had taken Sweden's approach. It's not a "leave everything open" approach, but it's not a lockdown either.

The WHO now has some very good things to say about this method.

Sweden has a much higher death count than any of the other Scandinavian countries.

Compared to many places in Europe, it's pretty low.

Look per capita, or as a percentage of total cases.

OK, here's per capita, for all European nations with a population of more than 1 million:

(https://i.imgur.com/C3m8pyr.jpg)

Yes, Sweden is higher than its Nordic neighbors on both charts, but it's hardly out of the ballpark in Europe.  I note specifically that the total case rate per capita of Sweden is less than 50% larger than that of Denmark.  And it should be clear to anyone that several countries in Europe took more drastic shutdown measures than Sweden yet have higher case rates and death rates than Sweden.  So let's stop talking about Sweden's plan as if it's an obvious failure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 12:40:22 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 10, 2020, 06:58:08 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on May 10, 2020, 05:46:37 PM
Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.

If you will, fact that containment is successful so far means that those measures work, and nothing else. NYC shows that going into catastrophic mode is very possible, and any further steps have to account for, and avoid as much as possible, that very scenario.

Empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors in Kentucky are proof of neither position.

How many of the empty beds are ICU beds?  A canceled hip replacement surgery leaves a hospital bed empty, but that has nothing to do with how close to capacity the ICU is.  Did a hospital postpone all hysterectomies?  If so, there are some more empty hospital beds that have nothing to do with COVID.  And I assume the furloughed doctors couldn't all be sent over to ICU to treat COVID patients, right?  Can you imagine that many doctors all crammed into one wing of the hospital?  And so a hospital could very well be at capacity for COVID patients while simultaneously having empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors.

My dad suffers from back pain due in part to Parkinson's disease.  He had been, until this past week, unable to get an injection to help with that because the procedure had been deemed "non-essential".  That empty seat in the waiting room, that PA not attending to him while waiting for the doctor, that doctor not seeing him–those are neither evidence of local shutdown measures working effectively nor of their being unnecessary.

About five weeks ago, Wesley Woodlawn Hospital suspended all in-patient services, which created a lot of empty hospital beds.  Such was not an indication that there were hardly any COVID cases in Wichita, because the reason they made that move was to send staff and other resources to a different hospital.  Was that move premature and unnecessary?  Without it, would the health care system in Wichita overrun capacity, or would it have handled the outbreak just fine?  Those are questions that simply cannot be answered by the mere presence of empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors in the city.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 12, 2020, 12:57:56 PM
Dentists are reopening in MA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 12, 2020, 01:05:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:58:03 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:56:11 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:18:13 AM
We have a drug that reduces deaths by 1/3 for those who already have COVID-19. It's likely that this 1/3 will keep getting better as we find new drugs. A later peak means that we can take more advantage of this.

Are you referring to Gilead's drug Remdesivir?  I read a study where the mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8% compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; but that the mortality difference was not statistically significant.  What drug is seeing a 1/3 reduction in deaths?

1 - 8%/11.6% ≈ 1/3. I didn't realize that it was statistically insignificant.

From what I remember of that study, both the death rate and the recovery time for surviving patients were observed to be reduced by about 1/3, but only the recovery time metric was shown to be statistically significant.

Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 09:31:07 AM
What you're looking for is the R0 factor - the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.  An R0 factor below 1.0 slows the spread, above 1.0 increases the spread.  The initial estimated R0 for COVID-19 was 2.5.  The more immune the population is, the lower the R0 becomes...that's what you're looking for.

New York...at 35% immunity...is only now halfway to where a R0 factor of < 1.0 is possible without vaccines and without physical distancing. 

Slight nitpick: R0 specifically refers to the initial value (in this case, ~2.5). Rt is the value at any other given point in time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 01:36:59 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 12, 2020, 01:05:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:58:03 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:56:11 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:18:13 AM
We have a drug that reduces deaths by 1/3 for those who already have COVID-19. It's likely that this 1/3 will keep getting better as we find new drugs. A later peak means that we can take more advantage of this.

Are you referring to Gilead's drug Remdesivir?  I read a study where the mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8% compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; but that the mortality difference was not statistically significant.  What drug is seeing a 1/3 reduction in deaths?

1 - 8%/11.6% ≈ 1/3. I didn't realize that it was statistically insignificant.

From what I remember of that study, both the death rate and the recovery time for surviving patients were observed to be reduced by about 1/3, but only the recovery time metric was shown to be statistically significant.

It almost feels like the media latched on to a negative study regarding Hydroxychloriquine for the sole person of proving Trump wrong.  Similarly they are now touting the drug Remdesivir even though a lot of questions remain regarding its effectiveness.  In the meantime, researchers from NYU Grossman School of Medicine looked at 900 Covid-19 patients and published their findings on Monday (to be clear the paper has not been peer reviewed).  Half were given zinc sulfate, hydroxychloroquine, and the antibiotic azithromycin.  The other half were given just hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.  Those receiving the zinc sulfate were 44% less likely to die compared to those who weren't given the zinc in combination with hydroxychloroquine.  The theory is that the zinc is the primary substance that attacks the virus while the Hydroxychloroquine is the agent that transports the zinc into the cells.  It's possibly the combination of the two drugs that make them effective.

https://www.trtworld.com/americas/zinc-hydroxychloroquine-found-effective-in-some-covid-19-patients-study-36233
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 01:57:13 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 12, 2020, 01:05:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:58:03 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 09:56:11 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 09:18:13 AM
We have a drug that reduces deaths by 1/3 for those who already have COVID-19. It's likely that this 1/3 will keep getting better as we find new drugs. A later peak means that we can take more advantage of this.

Are you referring to Gilead's drug Remdesivir?  I read a study where the mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8% compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; but that the mortality difference was not statistically significant.  What drug is seeing a 1/3 reduction in deaths?

1 - 8%/11.6% ≈ 1/3. I didn't realize that it was statistically insignificant.

From what I remember of that study, both the death rate and the recovery time for surviving patients were observed to be reduced by about 1/3, but only the recovery time metric was shown to be statistically significant.

Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 12, 2020, 09:31:07 AM
What you're looking for is the R0 factor - the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.  An R0 factor below 1.0 slows the spread, above 1.0 increases the spread.  The initial estimated R0 for COVID-19 was 2.5.  The more immune the population is, the lower the R0 becomes...that's what you're looking for.

New York...at 35% immunity...is only now halfway to where a R0 factor of < 1.0 is possible without vaccines and without physical distancing. 

Slight nitpick: R0 specifically refers to the initial value (in this case, ~2.5). Rt is the value at any other given point in time.

CORRECT...I oversimplified a little bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 02:02:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 11:53:22 AM
Allow me to also reiterate that we don't know how long the immune system hangs onto SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.  This means we don't know how long a person who has contracted the virus actually remains immune.  Even if 70% of the population contracts the virus, that does little good if that same 70% gradually lose their immunity before the epidemic dies down.  Our immune system hangs onto antibodies for some pathogens for years, but for others it's only months or even weeks.  So all this talk about herd immunity only goes so far, until we know how long a recovered person actually remains immune.

"Given what we know about the recovery from virus' such as coronavirus' in general, or even any infectious disease with very few exceptions, that when you have antibodies present it very likely indicates a degree of protection." - Dr. Fauci
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 12, 2020, 02:07:24 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 12, 2020, 08:55:10 AM
New York shouldn't blanket reopen. The NYC area and upstate are completely different.

What should be the first thing to reopen? I'm imagining things like jewelry stores, antique shops, and other stores where you probably have only one or two customers in the store at a time and the single worker is behind a desk.
NY's plan is detailed online.  Phase 1 retail is curbside pickup only.
https://forward.ny.gov/
https://forward.ny.gov/industries-reopening-phase

Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 02:02:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 11:53:22 AM
Allow me to also reiterate that we don't know how long the immune system hangs onto SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.  This means we don't know how long a person who has contracted the virus actually remains immune.  Even if 70% of the population contracts the virus, that does little good if that same 70% gradually lose their immunity before the epidemic dies down.  Our immune system hangs onto antibodies for some pathogens for years, but for others it's only months or even weeks.  So all this talk about herd immunity only goes so far, until we know how long a recovered person actually remains immune.

"Given what we know about the recovery from virus' such as coronavirus' in general, or even any infectious disease with very few exceptions, that when you have antibodies present it very likely indicates a degree of protection." - Dr. Fauci
"very likely" is not the same as "guarantee" and "a degree" does not say to what specific degree.  About the only thing we know from antibody studies right now is high-level data about how far the virus has spread.  Everything else is still up in the air.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:13:53 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.


Indoors or outdoors?

??   See bolded.   ??
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:14:00 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:14:00 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.
And your point is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:14:00 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.
And your point is?

Pooing is cool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:16:07 PM
It sounds like his point is that most people aren't wearing masks outdoors.

Considering that I've been routinely seeing people wearing masks outdoors, that's something worth noting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:17:00 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Pooing is cool.

Is that because it bips?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:17:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:17:00 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Pooing is cool.

Is that because it bips?

If poo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:20:36 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:16:07 PM
It sounds like his point is that most people aren't wearing masks outdoors.

Considering that I've been routinely seeing people wearing masks outdoors, that's something worth noting.

Hmm.  We've been told specifically that masks are required for indoor public spaces, but not required outdoor.  I've seen some, but the majority of people out walking are not wearing masks.  Perhaps not as drastic as 79-1, but at least 85-90% are not.

And to your prior post, he said "went out".  That doesn't necessarily mean outside.  For example, "We last went out to eat in February."  But we didn't eat outside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 12, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:14:00 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.
And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:45:35 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 01:21:27 AM

Quote from: vdeane on May 11, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Temperature checks strike me as security theater as well.  Not only is there huge variation if you were out in the cold, exercising, etc., but given that a lot (I would guess most) of the spread is from asymptomatic people that wouldn't have fevers, it doesn't seems like there's much point.

They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

Speak for yourself.  My best friends recently had their temperatures taken twice "with Harbor Freight type IR thermometers" (his words) at roadside checkpoints while on a 275-mile drive home.  "Security theater" isn't so entertaining when it's being done on the side of a highway by the military, and being "denied entry to wherever you were trying to get" is a lot more of an interruption when that "wherever" is your home town.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 12, 2020, 03:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 12, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:14:00 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.
And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.

:rofl:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 03:44:58 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 12, 2020, 03:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 12, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:14:00 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.
And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.

:rofl:

Come on, even I know that I wasn't even around for MTR. Lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 12, 2020, 04:26:11 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 03:44:58 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 12, 2020, 03:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 12, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 02:14:00 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 12, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 12, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.
And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.

:rofl:

Come on, even I know that I wasn't even around for MTR. Lol


Well honestly up until pandemic time, I have usually limited myself to the Great Lakes regional board.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 12, 2020, 04:39:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 12:40:22 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 10, 2020, 06:58:08 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on May 10, 2020, 05:46:37 PM
Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.

If you will, fact that containment is successful so far means that those measures work, and nothing else. NYC shows that going into catastrophic mode is very possible, and any further steps have to account for, and avoid as much as possible, that very scenario.

Empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors in Kentucky are proof of neither position.

How many of the empty beds are ICU beds?  A canceled hip replacement surgery leaves a hospital bed empty, but that has nothing to do with how close to capacity the ICU is.  Did a hospital postpone all hysterectomies?  If so, there are some more empty hospital beds that have nothing to do with COVID.  And I assume the furloughed doctors couldn't all be sent over to ICU to treat COVID patients, right?  Can you imagine that many doctors all crammed into one wing of the hospital?  And so a hospital could very well be at capacity for COVID patients while simultaneously having empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors.

My dad suffers from back pain due in part to Parkinson's disease.  He had been, until this past week, unable to get an injection to help with that because the procedure had been deemed "non-essential".  That empty seat in the waiting room, that PA not attending to him while waiting for the doctor, that doctor not seeing him–those are neither evidence of local shutdown measures working effectively nor of their being unnecessary.

About five weeks ago, Wesley Woodlawn Hospital suspended all in-patient services, which created a lot of empty hospital beds.  Such was not an indication that there were hardly any COVID cases in Wichita, because the reason they made that move was to send staff and other resources to a different hospital.  Was that move premature and unnecessary?  Without it, would the health care system in Wichita overrun capacity, or would it have handled the outbreak just fine?  Those are questions that simply cannot be answered by the mere presence of empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors in the city.

Only a small percentage of Kentucky hospitalizations for the virus are requiring use of the ICU. There's no reason other wings of the hospital could not be used for virus patients, or those rooms could be converted to ICU rooms if necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on May 12, 2020, 04:48:55 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 12, 2020, 12:57:56 PM
Dentists are reopening in MA.

Where did you hear that one? Can't find anything anywhere about that. Ironic timing in that I was supposed to have a routine teeth cleaning tonight. So much for that in the short term...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 05:04:04 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
June.  Flying

You got me with just those two words.  Ugghhh...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 12, 2020, 05:18:10 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Yeah I'm not so sure, the Massachusetts is only slowly reopening starting in mid May, August could be better but I dunno.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 12, 2020, 05:22:03 PM
Quote from: bugo on May 12, 2020, 02:10:40 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 10, 2020, 09:40:33 AM
Well, the reservations are sort of like countries, and countries have border checkpoints.

An island would be similar. If my town was an island, why wouldn't I want it blocked from the rest of the country during a pandemic? As far as I'm concerned, people could move about the island all they want. But would I want the rest of the country visiting? If a visitor could be quickly tested for coronavirus, I probably wouldn't have a problem though. But I'm not sure if that's doable.
None of the reservations in Oklahoma have checkpoints. I work on the Osage reservation, and I've never heard of checkpoints.

I think the Osage is technically the only reservation in Oklahoma. The Chickasaw Nation refers to its boundaries as a "tribal service area", which just means that certain programs are only available inside that area, and they have exclusivity on casinos in that area (although Stitt signed an agreement with the Comanche that would allow them to open casinos in the Chickasaw area, which I'm sure is going to get litigated). The Chickasaws have opened an area office in Oklahoma City, outside their service area, however, so it's definitely a much more porous border than the traditional-style reservations operated in the West.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 12, 2020, 05:31:58 PM
Things are finally looking up for me during this time. I can finally test for my driver's license (so long as I wear a mask). I will wait for a time where it isn't going to rain all week.

That rain will hopefully bring up the water on the upper Buffalo Nat'l River, as I am planning a day trip to float on the river (it opens in three days for day-use). This comes as my online school is coming to a close. The district cancelled all finals.

Arkansas is not allowing visitors from COVID-19 hotspots, including New Orleans, New York, and New Jersey.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 12, 2020, 05:33:26 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 12, 2020, 05:31:58 PM
Things are finally looking up for me during this time. I can finally test for my driver's license (so long as I wear a mask). I will wait for a time where it isn't going to rain all week.

That rain will hopefully bring up the water on the upper Buffalo Nat'l River, as I am planning a day trip to float on the river (it opens in three days for day-use). This comes as my online school is coming to a close. The district cancelled all finals.

Arkansas is not allowing visitors from COVID-19 hotspots, including New Orleans, New York, and New Jersey.
Your school closes soon? Lucky, we go till mid June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 06:38:17 PM
When Gov. Newsom issued a stay-at-home order on March 19 there were 207 new cases in Los Angeles County.  On May 5th there were 964 new cases.  During the lock down there has been over a 300% increase in daily cases.  Now it's just been announced that L.A. County stay-at-home orders will be extended through July. 

(https://i.imgur.com/UEyOr3q.png)
http://dashboard.publichealth.lacounty.gov/covid19_surveillance_dashboard/

California and New York are trending in opposite directions.  California is about to overtake New York in weekly confirmed cases (even with their extended lock down measures, a big outbreak appears to be coming to California).

(https://i.imgur.com/2AYFehd.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&doublingtime=3&location=California&location=New+York
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 12, 2020, 07:38:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 12:25:42 PM
OK, here's per capita, for all European nations with a population of more than 1 million:

(https://i.imgur.com/C3m8pyr.jpg)

Yes, Sweden is higher than its Nordic neighbors on both charts, but it's hardly out of the ballpark in Europe.  I note specifically that the total case rate per capita of Sweden is less than 50% larger than that of Denmark.  And it should be clear to anyone that several countries in Europe took more drastic shutdown measures than Sweden yet have higher case rates and death rates than Sweden.  So let's stop talking about Sweden's plan as if it's an obvious failure.

I look at that from the other direction.  Some places got hit harder than others.  New York City is obvious, because it would have gotten there early, due to the high rates of international travel, before we knew as much about it, and it would have spread very rapidly due to the high density.  By the time they were able to start identifying patients, it was probably already on a trajectory toward an unavoidable disaster.  These factors are probably pretty common in areas with major outbreaks.  (Unless there's something I don't know about Ireland, it seems like that's an outlier.)  That may have had an influence on how bad the rates got because it reduced the effectiveness of the mitigation measures, since the virus was already spread around so much.  To me, it makes sense that the places with the worst outbreaks took the most restrictive measures to slow it down.  I wouldn't see that as meaning the measures were ineffective, but as meaning that they were warranted.  In places with lesser outbreaks and less restrictive measures, that may not be success as much as their societies having less viral characteristics, such as less travel and lower density (and maybe even a higher degree of a sense of societal responsibility, where they don't rush in and crowd places just because those places are open and then bitch and moan about personal freedoms when asked to be respectful of the safety of others).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 12, 2020, 08:19:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown (https://forward.ny.gov/industries-reopening-phase)).  Only three regions have been cleared so far to begin Phase 1, and those regions may be able to shift to phase 2 at the end of the month if things don't worsen.  Phase 3 would begin at least two weeks after that.

The Capital Region is still waiting for its death count to decline more (personally, I'm not really sure why that's a metric, since it lags new infections by 6-8 weeks, but that's what they're using), and NYC and the Mid-Hudson regions are still hot spots, so even phase 1 by the end of the month may be optimistic.  I don't know how MA is doing, but last I heard, Boston was a hot spot.

Everything you could want to know about NY's reopening plan and how the regions are doing is here: https://forward.ny.gov/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 12, 2020, 08:44:03 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 12, 2020, 08:19:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown (https://forward.ny.gov/industries-reopening-phase)). 

Weren't hotels/motels allowed to remain open, at least for truckers transporting food and other essential goods, and other essential personnel?

Good to make reservations (not just in NY) before you need to decide on rescheduling, just to be sure.

Also make sure you won't be put into quarantine when you get back home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:44:57 PM
Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:48:58 PM
Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Park seems to be hinting reopening might come post Memorial Day:

https://www.nps.gov/seki/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 12, 2020, 09:20:53 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 12, 2020, 08:19:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown (https://forward.ny.gov/industries-reopening-phase)).  Only three regions have been cleared so far to begin Phase 1, and those regions may be able to shift to phase 2 at the end of the month if things don't worsen.  Phase 3 would begin at least two weeks after that.

The Capital Region is still waiting for its death count to decline more (personally, I'm not really sure why that's a metric, since it lags new infections by 6-8 weeks, but that's what they're using), and NYC and the Mid-Hudson regions are still hot spots, so even phase 1 by the end of the month may be optimistic.  I don't know how MA is doing, but last I heard, Boston was a hot spot.

Everything you could want to know about NY's reopening plan and how the regions are doing is here: https://forward.ny.gov/
In the NY Forward link, are the regions in yellow the ones that will be Phase I beginning this weekend?
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:48:58 PM
Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Park seems to be hinting reopening might come post Memorial Day:

https://www.nps.gov/seki/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
Speaking of national parks, Isle Royale is closed until June 15 while Pictured Rocks is in limited operations until June 26. Sleeping Bear is closed until July 1, but there is a chance some parts might open before then. These closures (and the length of them) may have more to do with staffing issues and pre-season cleanup than with COVID itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 12, 2020, 09:27:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:44:57 PM
Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.
Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 12, 2020, 09:38:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 12, 2020, 05:18:10 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Yeah I'm not so sure, the Massachusetts is only slowly reopening starting in mid May, August could be better but I dunno.

We rescheduled to August.  Boston hotel is in Medford.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 09:42:26 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 11:42:23 AM
Of the 3 main data points that New York State officials have shared (deaths, mortality rate, antibody results) two are relatively easy to verify (deaths & mortality rate).  That really puts the antibody testing into question.  If officials say that 20% of the population have antibodies when the other data points suggest that number has to be closer to 60%.  Am i missing something here?  This is my math.

(Deaths / Mortality) / Population = % antibodies

Where:
Deaths = 25,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm)
Mortality = 0.5% (https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html)
Population = 8,400,000

(25,000 / 0.005) / 8,400,000 = 59.5% antibodies

So, a couple things you're missing here.

One is that the official count of confirmed covid deaths in New York City is, as of today, only 14,800. This is based purely on how many people have died after having tested positive. The 25,000 figure in your first cite is an inferred estimate of the "true" death count in NYC which is based on looking at the total number of people that have died in the past couple months and comparing that number to the same period in prior years. The mortality estimates put forth by Cuomo are based on the number of confirmed deaths, not on any estimates of the true number.

Another is that the 0.5% mortality rate figure was based on statewide antibody test results. Within NYC specifically the number was actually stated to be higher - about 0.9%. It has been posited that the true mortality rate may, in fact, be higher in dense cities, because living in closer quarters with more people increases your exposure and makes more severe cases more likely.

Anyway with these caveats in mind the numbers add up: (14,800 / 0.009) / 8,400,000 = 19.6% antibodies, which is about what the first round of testing said. Subsequent testing put the number closer to 25%, which lowers the resulting mortality rate.

Nonetheless, I would expect that these antibody testing results are overestimates of true disease prevalence due to sampling bias. They obtained samples by pulling people aside at random at grocery stores. This means they're testing the prevalence among people who are going out and shopping, which for obvious reasons is likely to be higher than among people who are staying home and having their groceries delivered or sending another member of their household out for them.

Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:45:35 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 01:21:27 AM
They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

Speak for yourself.  My best friends recently had their temperatures taken twice "with Harbor Freight type IR thermometers" (his words) at roadside checkpoints while on a 275-mile drive home.  "Security theater" isn't so entertaining when it's being done on the side of a highway by the military, and being "denied entry to wherever you were trying to get" is a lot more of an interruption when that "wherever" is your home town.

So... the term "security theater" doesn't imply it is entertaining to anyone. It describes procedures which look tough and intimidating, but don't do much to improve actual safety.

If someone fails a temperature check and all you do is turn them around, they remain free to potentially keep infecting others elsewhere, and you thus have merely redirected the problem rather than actually addressing it. Hence, security theater - looks tough (and yes, can in some cases massively inconvenience people subject to it), but doesn't really protect people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 12, 2020, 09:45:44 PM
Washington has already started its phased reopening with ginger steps. Car washes and curbside retail are part of the first phase for most counties. Rural counties with stagnant or falling case growth are being prepped for the next phase.

...But we have a new hotspot in Yakima County because of unsafe working conditions at fruit picking/processing facilities and meat processors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ErmineNotyours on May 12, 2020, 09:49:56 PM
A couple of weeks ago when car washes were still supposedly closed, Elephant Car Wash had all but their Seattle and Burien locations opened.  Brown Bear finally opened this week and I've never seen the interior so clean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 09:55:09 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 12, 2020, 09:27:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:44:57 PM
Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.
Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone

Personally I found it miserable.  The traffic is absolutely terrible and you almost always have to commute from some massive distance.  At least in Chicago (where my opinion the traffic is the worst in the country) you aren't spread out over some massive basin like Metro Los Angeles.  The first two times I worked in Los Angeles I managed to have it incorporated into my work area out of Phoenix.  The cost of living and daily traffic was a massive turn off that really made me fight hard against forced transfers out there.  I usually spent one or two weeks around Los Angeles every month traveling from site to site.  It wasn't so bad on my own terms since I was paid lodging, meal, and gas but it is by far my least favorite place I've ever worked. 

The funny thing is that I actually really enjoy visiting.  The traffic isn't too bad when you're trying to feature it on a highway page like I do.  The hiking is surprisingly good around the city and the air has cleaned up substantially even these past two decades.  I like having Los Angeles 3-4 hours away right now for an occasional visit, but I don't think I'll go back unless someone throws stupidly absurd levels of money at me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 12, 2020, 09:59:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 09:55:09 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 12, 2020, 09:27:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:44:57 PM
Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.
Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone

Personally I found it miserable.  The traffic is absolutely terrible and you almost always have to commute from some massive distance.  At least in Chicago (where my opinion the traffic is the worst in the country) you aren't spread out over some massive basin like Metro Los Angeles.  The first two times I worked in Los Angeles I managed to have it incorporated into my work area out of Phoenix.  The cost of living and daily traffic was a massive turn off that really made me fight hard against forced transfers out there.  I usually spent one or two weeks around Los Angeles every month traveling from site to site.  It wasn't so bad on my own terms since I was paid lodging, meal, and gas but it is by far my least favorite place I've ever worked. 

The funny thing is that I actually really enjoy visiting.  The traffic isn't too bad when you're trying to feature it on a highway page like I do.  The hiking is surprisingly good around the city and the air has cleaned up substantially even these past two decades.  I like having Los Angeles 3-4 hours away right now for an occasional visit, but I don't think I'll go back unless someone throws stupidly absurd levels of money at me.
Sheesh so basically the traffic & cost of living make it kinda bad if you need to live there & commute for work. But its good if you're rich or visiting. Roger that.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 11:00:05 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 09:42:26 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 12, 2020, 11:42:23 AM
Of the 3 main data points that New York State officials have shared (deaths, mortality rate, antibody results) two are relatively easy to verify (deaths & mortality rate).  That really puts the antibody testing into question.  If officials say that 20% of the population have antibodies when the other data points suggest that number has to be closer to 60%.  Am i missing something here?  This is my math.

(Deaths / Mortality) / Population = % antibodies

Where:
Deaths = 25,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm)
Mortality = 0.5% (https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html)
Population = 8,400,000

(25,000 / 0.005) / 8,400,000 = 59.5% antibodies

So, a couple things you're missing here.

One is that the official count of confirmed covid deaths in New York City is, as of today, only 14,800. This is based purely on how many people have died after having tested positive. The 25,000 figure in your first cite is an inferred estimate of the "true" death count in NYC which is based on looking at the total number of people that have died in the past couple months and comparing that number to the same period in prior years. The mortality estimates put forth by Cuomo are based on the number of confirmed deaths, not on any estimates of the true number.

Another is that the 0.5% mortality rate figure was based on statewide antibody test results. Within NYC specifically the number was actually stated to be higher - about 0.9%. It has been posited that the true mortality rate may, in fact, be higher in dense cities, because living in closer quarters with more people increases your exposure and makes more severe cases more likely.

Anyway with these caveats in mind the numbers add up: (14,800 / 0.009) / 8,400,000 = 19.6% antibodies, which is about what the first round of testing said. Subsequent testing put the number closer to 25%, which lowers the resulting mortality rate.

Nonetheless, I would expect that these antibody testing results are overestimates of true disease prevalence due to sampling bias. They obtained samples by pulling people aside at random at grocery stores. This means they're testing the prevalence among people who are going out and shopping, which for obvious reasons is likely to be higher than among people who are staying home and having their groceries delivered or sending another member of their household out for them.

Thank you Duke that was helpful information.  Assuming a 0.9% mortality rate in dense urban environments make all the difference in the antibody estimates.  Even assuming the estimated 25,000 deaths, with a 0.9% mortality roughly 33% of the population would have antibodies (which is now in the same ballpark as the 25% antibody findings). 

QuoteAnyway with these caveats in mind the numbers add up: (14,800 / 0.009) / 8,400,000 = 19.6% antibodies, which is about what the first round of testing said. Subsequent testing put the number closer to 25%, which lowers the resulting mortality rate.

This is the one part i'm not following.  Wasn't the Phase 1 and Phase 2 antibody studies performed several days apart?  If that's true couldn't the increase in people testing positive for antibodies in the Phase 2 study simply mean that more people had gotten infected (and more people had died) from the time the Phase 1 trial was performed?  In that case the mortality rate wouldn't have gone down.  Or maybe i'm wrong in assuming there was a lag between the two studies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 11:05:22 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 12, 2020, 09:59:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 09:55:09 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 12, 2020, 09:27:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 12, 2020, 08:44:57 PM
Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.
Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone

Personally I found it miserable.  The traffic is absolutely terrible and you almost always have to commute from some massive distance.  At least in Chicago (where my opinion the traffic is the worst in the country) you aren't spread out over some massive basin like Metro Los Angeles.  The first two times I worked in Los Angeles I managed to have it incorporated into my work area out of Phoenix.  The cost of living and daily traffic was a massive turn off that really made me fight hard against forced transfers out there.  I usually spent one or two weeks around Los Angeles every month traveling from site to site.  It wasn't so bad on my own terms since I was paid lodging, meal, and gas but it is by far my least favorite place I've ever worked. 

The funny thing is that I actually really enjoy visiting.  The traffic isn't too bad when you're trying to feature it on a highway page like I do.  The hiking is surprisingly good around the city and the air has cleaned up substantially even these past two decades.  I like having Los Angeles 3-4 hours away right now for an occasional visit, but I don't think I'll go back unless someone throws stupidly absurd levels of money at me.
Sheesh so basically the traffic & cost of living make it kinda bad if you need to live there & commute for work. But its good if you're rich or visiting. Roger that.


iPhone

I wouldn't say you need to be rich but even 80k on an individual income isn't going to get much more than a nice apartment anywhere near the core of the urban center.  For me it was better to commute from another city or not get paid as much to live somewhere more affordable.  Even with the pay pump I would get living there the cost of living would offset it and then some by a large margin.  As I've gotten older, I've found for me that less tends to be more.  Nowadays I don't work or live in a big metro area but I live far more comfortably and I'm far more happy.

Now with the virus stuff in places like Los Angeles and NYC I can see that being a big turn off to a lot of job seekers just on that basis.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 12, 2020, 11:54:25 PM
Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 13, 2020, 02:01:34 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 12, 2020, 05:33:26 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 12, 2020, 05:31:58 PM
Things are finally looking up for me during this time. I can finally test for my driver's license (so long as I wear a mask). I will wait for a time where it isn't going to rain all week.

That rain will hopefully bring up the water on the upper Buffalo Nat'l River, as I am planning a day trip to float on the river (it opens in three days for day-use). This comes as my online school is coming to a close. The district cancelled all finals.

Arkansas is not allowing visitors from COVID-19 hotspots, including New Orleans, New York, and New Jersey.
Your school closes soon? Lucky, we go till mid June.

I don't know about Missouri, but in Oklahoma, school finishes up in mid-May. We were always out before Memorial Day. However, we go back in mid-August.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 13, 2020, 07:33:09 AM
According to John Hopkins Italy has had 221,216 confirmed cases and 30,911 deaths (which equals a case mortality rate of 13.97%).  A high mortality rate usually suggests a lack of testing, but supposedly Italy has tested more people per capita than any other country.  But look at how different countries constitute a "test".  So much country data is out there but there are a lot of Apples and Oranges comparisons taking place.

(https://i.imgur.com/9TPD5ah.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 13, 2020, 09:27:18 AM
The Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Cincinnati will start having mass again on May 25.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 13, 2020, 11:12:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 13, 2020, 09:27:18 AM
The Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Cincinnati will start having mass again on May 25.

The Archdiocese of Detroit will open partially in a week and fully on May 29, the day after the latest extension of the "Stay Home" order expires.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 13, 2020, 01:14:12 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 12, 2020, 09:20:53 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 12, 2020, 08:19:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown (https://forward.ny.gov/industries-reopening-phase)).  Only three regions have been cleared so far to begin Phase 1, and those regions may be able to shift to phase 2 at the end of the month if things don't worsen.  Phase 3 would begin at least two weeks after that.

The Capital Region is still waiting for its death count to decline more (personally, I'm not really sure why that's a metric, since it lags new infections by 6-8 weeks, but that's what they're using), and NYC and the Mid-Hudson regions are still hot spots, so even phase 1 by the end of the month may be optimistic.  I don't know how MA is doing, but last I heard, Boston was a hot spot.

Everything you could want to know about NY's reopening plan and how the regions are doing is here: https://forward.ny.gov/
In the NY Forward link, are the regions in yellow the ones that will be Phase I beginning this weekend?
Not all of them.  Those are the ones classified as "lower risk" based on their current hospitalization trends and utilization.  The Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, and Mohawk Valley were the ones that were originally announced as having met all seven criteria to reopen; since then, the North Country has ramped up its testing capability and will be reopening as well.  Central NY is still doing that.

The dashboard is updated daily with each region's status, as is the hospitalization trend chart.  I'm not sure what's driving the current spike of cases in the Capital District (especially since we're fully cleared for elective surgeries and the media keeps talking about how our case count is at a record low), but it's making me start to believe the people who say the Capital District is really downstate instead of upstate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 13, 2020, 03:09:34 PM
Quote from: wxfree on May 12, 2020, 07:38:04 PM
To me, it makes sense that the places with the worst outbreaks took the most restrictive measures to slow it down.  I wouldn't see that as meaning the measures were ineffective, but as meaning that they were warranted.  In places with lesser outbreaks and less restrictive measures, that may not be success as much as their societies having less viral characteristics, such as less travel and lower density (and maybe even a higher degree of a sense of societal responsibility, where they don't rush in and crowd places just because those places are open and then bitch and moan about personal freedoms when asked to be respectful of the safety of others).

So...

[A]  If a country has loose restrictions and many cases, then it proves restrictions are necessary:  with tighter restrictions, the number of cases would surely be lower.

[.B]  If a country has tight restrictions and few cases, then it proves restrictions are necessary:  with looser restrictions, the number of cases would surely be higher.

On the other hand...

[C]  If a country has tight restrictions and many cases, then it doesn't prove restrictions are unnecessary:  restrictions must have been warranted because it must have had a huge initial outbreak to be slowed down.

[D]  If a country has loose restrictions and few cases, then it doesn't prove restrictions are unnecessary:  people there must have less viral characteristics.


To me, this seems like a position that leaves no possibility of being refuted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 13, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 12, 2020, 11:54:25 PM
Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 13, 2020, 04:17:12 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 09:42:26 PM
If someone fails a temperature check and all you do is turn them around, they remain free to potentially keep infecting others elsewhere, and you thus have merely redirected the problem rather than actually addressing it. Hence, security theater - looks tough (and yes, can in some cases massively inconvenience people subject to it), but doesn't really protect people.

A whole lot of things can cause one to run a fever. The chances of having this particular virus, as opposed to anything else that causes your body temperature to rise, are slim.  And the infrared skin temperature scanners don't seem to be particularly great. If you've been out in the sun or have worked up a sweat via exercise or physical labor, your skin can be warmer than usual. And if you're one of those much-demonized asymptomatic carriers that's killing people and you don't even know it [/sarcasm] then a temperature scan is worthless anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 13, 2020, 04:43:36 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 09:42:26 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 12, 2020, 02:45:35 PM

Quote from: Duke87 on May 12, 2020, 01:21:27 AM
They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

Speak for yourself.  My best friends recently had their temperatures taken twice "with Harbor Freight type IR thermometers" (his words) at roadside checkpoints while on a 275-mile drive home.  "Security theater" isn't so entertaining when it's being done on the side of a highway by the military, and being "denied entry to wherever you were trying to get" is a lot more of an interruption when that "wherever" is your home town.

So... the term "security theater" doesn't imply it is entertaining to anyone. It describes procedures which look tough and intimidating, but don't do much to improve actual safety.

If someone fails a temperature check and all you do is turn them around, they remain free to potentially keep infecting others elsewhere, and you thus have merely redirected the problem rather than actually addressing it. Hence, security theater - looks tough (and yes, can in some cases massively inconvenience people subject to it), but doesn't really protect people.

Quote from: hbelkins on May 13, 2020, 04:17:12 PM
A whole lot of things can cause one to run a fever. The chances of having this particular virus, as opposed to anything else that causes your body temperature to rise, are slim.  And the infrared skin temperature scanners don't seem to be particularly great. If you've been out in the sun or have worked up a sweat via exercise or physical labor, your skin can be warmer than usual. And if you're one of those much-demonized asymptomatic carriers that's killing people and you don't even know it [/sarcasm] then a temperature scan is worthless anyway.

Indeed, I wonder what would have happened to my friends if they had failed the temperature check.  They and their two young daughters are living in Mexico on tourist cards and were stopped while heading south away from the border, after having just obtained new six-month papers.  What would being "turned around" have looked like?  Perhaps sent back to the border, who knows?  At least they had packed up most of their belongings ahead of time (uncertain if they could even obtain new papers), but what if they hadn't done so and had been left stranded at the border with naught but one change of clothes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 13, 2020, 05:48:10 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 13, 2020, 11:12:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 13, 2020, 09:27:18 AM
The Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Cincinnati will start having mass again on May 25.

The Archdiocese of Detroit will open partially in a week and fully on May 29, the day after the latest extension of the "Stay Home" order expires.
Whitmer mentioned that the protests at the Capitol might extend her stay home order even if the case load keeps declining (under 400 reported today statewide; my home county hasn't reported a new case in almost a month).

Side note: Clergy and funeral directors will likely be a little busier than normal this summer due to the backlog of funerals and memorial services for people who have passed since early March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 13, 2020, 05:50:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 13, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 12, 2020, 11:54:25 PM
Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt.

I would definitely agree. As long as you don't mind the bus, it's a fairly painless experience. Individual cities and the transit providers do an excellent job provisioning street space for transit, often making it quicker to use the bus with all the exclusive lanes and queue jumps. The LRT line should really help improve the experience overall, and provide some much-needed grade separation in the busy areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 13, 2020, 07:22:32 PM
Looks like Tesla ended up getting Alameda County to see things their way after all:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/spat-over-reopening-california-tesla-061416556.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 07:50:05 PM
I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 13, 2020, 08:05:26 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 13, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 12, 2020, 11:54:25 PM
Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt. 

The ferries are fine if you are a walk-on passenger and/or able to live with organizing your entire lifestyle around the boat schedules. Driving on is a pain, especially for the Bremerton and Clinton runs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 13, 2020, 08:21:37 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 13, 2020, 08:05:26 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 13, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 12, 2020, 11:54:25 PM
Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt. 

The ferries are fine if you are a walk-on passenger and/or able to live with organizing your entire lifestyle around the boat schedules. Driving on is a pain, especially for the Bremerton and Clinton runs.

That's what my boss does right.  He's not particularly fond of the ferry in Kingston but seems to able keep up more with the Port Townsend ferry schedule.  I usually hit the first Bremerton-Seattle Ferry of the day when I'm working up there on the return trip to SeaTac.  I've found in rush hour the time difference between WA 16 and I-5 is fairly even. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 13, 2020, 09:10:22 PM
Minnesota is letting their stay-at-home order expire. I think Rhode Island already did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 13, 2020, 10:04:32 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 07:50:05 PM
I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 10:16:09 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 13, 2020, 10:04:32 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 07:50:05 PM
I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.
Incorrect Brandon, the stay was never granted - Bars here in town opened up swiftly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 13, 2020, 10:16:36 PM
Our governor has delayed Phase One of reopening for Northern VA until May 28.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html (https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 13, 2020, 10:32:43 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 10:16:09 PM
Incorrect Brandon, the stay was never granted - Bars here in town opened up swiftly.

Complicating things is that some Wisconsin localities put in their own restrictions ahead of the anticipated Supreme Court ruling. AIUI, that ruling does not apply to the local orders, though I suspect there will be a second wave of lawsuits against the localities anyway.

Good times for Wisconsin lawyers, huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Quote from: County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health
Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 01:54:33 PM
The Wisconsin order requiring legislative involvement looks like a good, legal ruling.  The Court not extending a stay was their big mistake and has caused some chaos.  A stay that both sides wanted by the way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 14, 2020, 01:54:44 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 10:16:09 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 13, 2020, 10:04:32 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 07:50:05 PM
I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.
Incorrect Brandon, the stay was never granted - Bars here in town opened up swiftly.

So I noted this morning.  A bit hasty, IMHO.  Although, DHS should never be in charge of anything directly (I've got experience here dealing with them - they're not what I'd call "user friendly").  A better option (for both Wisconsin and Illinois) would be to follow Indiana's lead here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: JoePCool14 on May 14, 2020, 01:58:15 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Quote from: County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health
Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

That's insane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 02:03:00 PM
I don't understand why anyone is so upset now at states revoking a stay-at-home order. Montana did it. Indiana did it. Rhode Island did it, and they had one of the highest rates of this virus per capita of any state. A bunch of other states did it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 14, 2020, 02:07:27 PM
Quote from: JoePCool14 on May 14, 2020, 01:58:15 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Quote from: County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health
Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

That's insane.

Not exactly any different than what they have been doing already aside from the lack of an expiration date. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:16:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 14, 2020, 02:07:27 PM

Quote from: JoePCool14 on May 14, 2020, 01:58:15 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Quote from: County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health
Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.


That's insane.

Not exactly any different than what they have been doing already aside from the lack of an expiration date. 

True, but this contradicts what several people have said about these orders not impinging our rights because they're only temporary with clear end dates.

This new order could theoretically stay on the books forever.




Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 02:03:00 PM
I don't understand why anyone is so upset now at states revoking a stay-at-home order. Montana did it. Indiana did it. Rhode Island did it, and they had one of the highest rates of this virus per capita of any state. A bunch of other states did it.

Agreed.  HB asked if any place other than New York has been in danger of the health care system being overrun and, as far as I know, Seattle has been the only answer given.  It's possible I'm forgetting another.

Quote from: Bruce on May 10, 2020, 09:22:38 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on May 10, 2020, 05:46:37 PM
Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.

Seattle came extremely close until the remote-work policies from major employers and shutdown from the state government really took effect. My local hospital (Everett Providence) was within days of running out of supplies, with similar stories reported at Harborview, Swedish, and UW Medical.

That was the whole point of flattening the curve. The virus will still have new cases because it's impossible to totally stamp out here, but if it's kept at a low enough level there won't be a total collapse of the health system.

Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 02:22:06 PM
The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093336v1.full.pdf

^If true this is good news.  If herd immunity is reached when 43% of the population has been infected, NYC could expect to see roughly 8,000 additional COVID deaths before herd immunity is reached.

(25,000 current total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 33% immunity....

(33,000 future total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 43% immunity...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on May 14, 2020, 02:23:39 PM
Utah is now moving into the yellow phase of its coronavirus recovery plan, except for Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Summit County, Wasatch County, and Grand County, which will all remain at the orange phase for now.

Among other things, in the yellow phase, all businesses can reopen and gatherings of up to 50 people may happen as long as social distancing is observed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 14, 2020, 02:27:43 PM
@kphoger

I think that is where Los Angeles County is going to run into a problem with no advertising an end date on their order.  I'm not exactly boned up on my California Law but I don't believe County Officials can issue an Emergency Order without any end date.  If that's the case it's likely that someone will end up suing Los Angeles County to get an expiration date in place. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 02:30:38 PM
Endcoronavirus.org breaks up the states that are beating COVID-19, states that are nearly there, and states that need to take action:

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: dvferyance on May 14, 2020, 02:33:24 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 01:54:33 PM
The Wisconsin order requiring legislative involvement looks like a good, legal ruling.  The Court not extending a stay was their big mistake and has caused some chaos.  A stay that both sides wanted by the way.
If the stay at home order was to be extended that was the job of the legislature. The court just ruled that the Governor did not have sole power to extend the order beyond the 60 day emergency peroid on his own. Which they are correct on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 14, 2020, 02:35:49 PM
Quote from: LM117 on May 13, 2020, 10:16:36 PM
Our governor has delayed Phase One of reopening for Northern VA until May 28.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html (https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html)
Good to see Virginia not punishing the whole state for the high caseloads of a few counties that are in close proximity to each other (*cough*Illinois*cough*Michigan*cough)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 14, 2020, 02:36:14 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 13, 2020, 10:04:32 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 07:50:05 PM
I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.

The ends don't justify the means. No matter how well-intentioned an executive officer's order may be -- and I have my doubts that governors like in Wisconsin, Kentucky, and other places have totally altruistic aims, given their ideologies -- those orders must be lawful. As I've repeatedly said, rights were written just for times such as these. If those rights are not applicable in times of crisis, they are worthless at all times. A court should not disregard the law just because there's a virus going around. Courts should rule on the law, not on current events.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 14, 2020, 02:42:07 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 14, 2020, 02:36:14 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 13, 2020, 10:04:32 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on May 13, 2020, 07:50:05 PM
I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.

The ends don't justify the means. No matter how well-intentioned an executive officer's order may be -- and I have my doubts that governors like in Wisconsin, Kentucky, and other places have totally altruistic aims, given their ideologies -- those orders must be lawful. As I've repeatedly said, rights were written just for times such as these. If those rights are not applicable in times of crisis, they are worthless at all times. A court should not disregard the law just because there's a virus going around. Courts should rule on the law, not on current events.

The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 02:42:25 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 02:22:06 PM
The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093336v1.full.pdf

^If true this is good news.  If herd immunity is reached when 43% of the population has been infected, NYC could expect to see roughly 8,000 additional COVID deaths before herd immunity is reached.

(25,000 current total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 33% immunity....

(33,000 future total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 43% immunity...

Compare the level of immunity for NYC and LA County.  Assuming herd immunity is reached at 43%, NYC is about 75% of the way through the pandemic (25,000 current deaths / 33,000 expected deaths).  OTOH, LA County is about 4% of the way through it and LA County could expect 40k deaths before herd immunity is reached. 

(1,545 current deaths / .9% mortality) / 10.0 million people = 4% immunity...

(40,000 future deaths / .9% mortality) / 10.0 million people = 43% immunity...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:43:54 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 14, 2020, 02:42:07 PM
The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

So are people still allowed to gather for political protests?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 14, 2020, 02:45:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:43:54 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 14, 2020, 02:42:07 PM
The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

So are people still allowed to gather for political protests?

While they can't be prohibited entirely, it goes against what the protesters are trying to advocate for, as they might be spreading the virus.

I don't believe anywhere prevents protesting if the 6-foot rule is followed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:51:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 14, 2020, 02:45:48 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:43:54 PM

Quote from: 1 on May 14, 2020, 02:42:07 PM
The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

So are people still allowed to gather for political protests?

While they can't be prohibited entirely, it goes against what the protesters are trying to advocate for, as they might be spreading the virus.

I don't believe anywhere prevents protesting if the 6-foot rule is followed.

I don't see it listed as a purpose "expressly permitted" by the Los Angeles County order (http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/docs/HOO/HOO_Safer_at_Home_Order_for_Control_of_COVID_20200513.pdf) I quoted up-thread.  All gatherings other than those expressly permitted are prohibited.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 02:55:25 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on May 14, 2020, 02:33:24 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 01:54:33 PM
The Wisconsin order requiring legislative involvement looks like a good, legal ruling.  The Court not extending a stay was their big mistake and has caused some chaos.  A stay that both sides wanted by the way.
If the stay at home order was to be extended that was the job of the legislature. The court just ruled that the Governor did not have sole power to extend the order beyond the 60 day emergency peroid on his own. Which they are correct on.


Right.  Which is why I said it was the right legal decision.  However both the Legislature and the Governor wanted a six day stay.  But the stay wasn't ordered, which has lead to a patchwork of various counties being various degrees of "open."  Six days would have given time for the Legislature and Governor time to try to work together on a compromise plan.  Now its just chaos.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 03:12:23 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Can you swim with a mask?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/98/57/86/98578638639cba1aba7df978bf99b56f.jpg (https://i.pinimg.com/originals/98/57/86/98578638639cba1aba7df978bf99b56f.jpg)   :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:13:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 03:12:23 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Can you swim with a mask?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/98/57/86/98578638639cba1aba7df978bf99b56f.jpg (https://i.pinimg.com/originals/98/57/86/98578638639cba1aba7df978bf99b56f.jpg)   :D
Oops, feel stupid now. So will swimmers have to wear that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 03:15:30 PM
Park City, a suburb of Wichita, has decided to not open the pool this summer.  We're hoping Haysville will open theirs, because it's a great spot for our good friends' daughter's birthday in a few months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 14, 2020, 03:17:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Quote from: County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health
Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

No end date? Yeah, I seriously doubt this would hold up in court.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 03:25:15 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/0o8M84i.png)

What curve does your state look like?

Louisiana:  Big outbreak followed by a decline and leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

Georgia:  Slow increase in cases before leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

California:  Slow increase in cases still searching for their "lock down" equilibrium.

Montana:  One of the lucky state where their "lock down" equilibrium equals zero cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 14, 2020, 03:25:40 PM
Quote from: LM117 on May 14, 2020, 03:17:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Quote from: County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health
Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

No end date? Yeah, I seriously doubt this would hold up in court.

Probably just takes one company or advocacy group to protest to get an expiration date back on there.  Alameda County tried to stand up to Tesla the other day and backed off hard once they threatened to move out of state.  Either way, man my commentary about on Metro Los Angeles is looking only more sound by the day. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:30:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 03:25:15 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/0o8M84i.png)

What curve does your state look like?

Louisiana:  Big outbreak followed by a decline and leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

Georgia:  Slow increase in cases before leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

California:  Slow increase in cases still searching for their "lock down" equilibrium.

Montana:  One of the lucky state where their "lock down" equilibrium equals zero cases.
How are the cases still soaring in California? I thought that they were one of the first to lock down?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 14, 2020, 03:39:55 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:30:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 03:25:15 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/0o8M84i.png)

What curve does your state look like?

Louisiana:  Big outbreak followed by a decline and leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

Georgia:  Slow increase in cases before leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

California:  Slow increase in cases still searching for their "lock down" equilibrium.

Montana:  One of the lucky state where their "lock down" equilibrium equals zero cases.
How are the cases still soaring in California? I thought that they were one of the first to lock down?

Mostly Los Angeles County which wasn't really doing much of anything until the State order came out.  The six Bay Area Counties did their own thing first along with several other cities before the State order.  Ten million people live in Los Angeles County which to give some idea of why the numbers are so high there.  Los Angeles County has about 33.5 cases per 10,000 whereas the State average is about 18.5 per 10,000. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

Chlorine kills it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 14, 2020, 03:43:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:51:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 14, 2020, 02:45:48 PM
I don't believe anywhere prevents protesting if the 6-foot rule is followed.

I don't see it listed as a purpose "expressly permitted" by the Los Angeles County order (http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/docs/HOO/HOO_Safer_at_Home_Order_for_Control_of_COVID_20200513.pdf) I quoted up-thread.  All gatherings other than those expressly permitted are prohibited.

Unless that prohibition is overridden by the U.S. and/or state constitutions.

The Los Angeles County order has lots of exceptions, and incorporates other orders by reference, some of which might allow an out for political protests (including but not limited to coronavirus-related issues).

All those exceptions could also support a legal challenge to the order. That's what happened in Kentucky regarding restrictions on worship activities. The Federal appeals court basically said "you allow a lot of other group activities to go on such as law firms, laundromats, airlines, or liquor stores, subject to social distancing rules, but it's unconstitutional discrimination not to give similar breaks to churches". The same could easily be said for political protests also protected by the First Amendment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 03:59:21 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 14, 2020, 03:43:23 PM
All those exceptions could also support a legal challenge to the order. That's what happened in Kentucky regarding restrictions on worship activities. The Federal appeals court basically said "you allow a lot of other group activities to go on such as law firms, laundromats, airlines, or liquor stores, subject to social distancing rules, but it's unconstitutional discrimination not to give similar breaks to churches". The same could easily be said for political protests also protected by the First Amendment.

I'm aware of one church here in Wichita that has already re-opened for worship services.  Because they are a small congregation in a large building, they have been able to abide by all the guidelines–including roping off areas for groups of ten congregants or less.

I'm actually kind of interested to know what it's like worshiping in that context.

Most churches in town are shooting for a re-opening date 5½ weeks from now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 04:25:55 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

I don't think this virus is waterborne, and I very much doubt people are going to be swimming with masks.

Some areas around the country have opened beaches even for swimming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 04:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:30:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 14, 2020, 03:25:15 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/0o8M84i.png)

What curve does your state look like?

Louisiana:  Big outbreak followed by a decline and leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

Georgia:  Slow increase in cases before leveling off to their "lock down" equilibrium.

California:  Slow increase in cases still searching for their "lock down" equilibrium.

Montana:  One of the lucky state where their "lock down" equilibrium equals zero cases.
How are the cases still soaring in California? I thought that they were one of the first to lock down?

California is increasing their testing so it's likely that the actual daily infections is pretty flat right now (as increasing testing finds more cases).  But flat during the lock down isn't great either.  The California and Georgia curves reminds me of a stock that had a big run up and is now in its consolidation phase (or in this case the "lock down" phase).  It looks like a coiled spring ready to explode higher when the next wave of buyers step in (or when the economy reopens). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 04:42:56 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 04:25:55 PM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.

Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

I don't think this virus is waterborne, and I very much doubt people are going to be swimming with masks.

Some areas around the country have opened beaches even for swimming.

I was assuming it wasn't even about the water.  At the pool, people are still in close quarters in the shower room, in line for the diving board, wading around...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: renegade on May 14, 2020, 06:02:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

Chlorine kills it.
So I've heard!   :bigass:

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on May 14, 2020, 06:39:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:51:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 14, 2020, 02:45:48 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 14, 2020, 02:43:54 PM

Quote from: 1 on May 14, 2020, 02:42:07 PM
The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

So are people still allowed to gather for political protests?

While they can't be prohibited entirely, it goes against what the protesters are trying to advocate for, as they might be spreading the virus.

I don't believe anywhere prevents protesting if the 6-foot rule is followed.

I don't see it listed as a purpose "expressly permitted" by the Los Angeles County order (http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/docs/HOO/HOO_Safer_at_Home_Order_for_Control_of_COVID_20200513.pdf) I quoted up-thread.  All gatherings other than those expressly permitted are prohibited.
But does a protest satisfy the legal definition of "gathering" under CA law?

If it doesn't then it would have to be permitted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 14, 2020, 07:47:53 PM
Quote from: renegade on May 14, 2020, 06:02:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

Chlorine kills it.
So I've heard!   :bigass:
Clearing out water from the nose/mouth/ears means literally spraying infection around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 14, 2020, 08:54:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 14, 2020, 07:47:53 PM
Quote from: renegade on May 14, 2020, 06:02:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

Chlorine kills it.
So I've heard!   :bigass:
Clearing out water from the nose/mouth/ears means literally spraying infection around.

I don't know how you swim, but I've never seen that, nor done that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 14, 2020, 09:39:43 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 13, 2020, 01:14:12 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 12, 2020, 09:20:53 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 12, 2020, 08:19:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 12, 2020, 04:56:56 PM
So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.
Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown (https://forward.ny.gov/industries-reopening-phase)).  Only three regions have been cleared so far to begin Phase 1, and those regions may be able to shift to phase 2 at the end of the month if things don't worsen.  Phase 3 would begin at least two weeks after that.

The Capital Region is still waiting for its death count to decline more (personally, I'm not really sure why that's a metric, since it lags new infections by 6-8 weeks, but that's what they're using), and NYC and the Mid-Hudson regions are still hot spots, so even phase 1 by the end of the month may be optimistic.  I don't know how MA is doing, but last I heard, Boston was a hot spot.

Everything you could want to know about NY's reopening plan and how the regions are doing is here: https://forward.ny.gov/
In the NY Forward link, are the regions in yellow the ones that will be Phase I beginning this weekend?
Not all of them.  Those are the ones classified as "lower risk" based on their current hospitalization trends and utilization.  The Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, and Mohawk Valley were the ones that were originally announced as having met all seven criteria to reopen; since then, the North Country has ramped up its testing capability and will be reopening as well.  Central NY is still doing that.

The dashboard is updated daily with each region's status, as is the hospitalization trend chart.  I'm not sure what's driving the current spike of cases in the Capital District (especially since we're fully cleared for elective surgeries and the media keeps talking about how our case count is at a record low), but it's making me start to believe the people who say the Capital District is really downstate instead of upstate.
Update: Central NY had upped their testing capability, so now all the regions that were in yellow will be reopening tomorrow, although that map is no longer on the page.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on May 14, 2020, 10:59:47 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 14, 2020, 02:35:49 PM
Good to see Virginia not punishing the whole state for the high caseloads of a few counties that are in close proximity to each other (*cough*Illinois*cough*Michigan*cough)

The Illinois one appears to be having disobedience forming at county levels, particularly Madison County (St. Louis area) and Kendall County (west of Joliet for those unfamiliar with Chicagoland).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 14, 2020, 11:07:51 PM
Casinos are starting to open up in Oklahoma.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 14, 2020, 11:30:31 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 14, 2020, 11:07:51 PM
Casinos are starting to open up in Oklahoma.

One of ours (Angel of the Winds) reopened yesterday and has been causing some large traffic jams. They take your temperature at the door and have banned smoking in all indoor facilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 14, 2020, 11:37:44 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 14, 2020, 11:30:31 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 14, 2020, 11:07:51 PM
Casinos are starting to open up in Oklahoma.

One of ours (Angel of the Winds) reopened yesterday and has been causing some large traffic jams. They take your temperature at the door and have banned smoking in all indoor facilities.

Some of the casinos in California are talking about opening in early June.  I'm kind of surprised that some of them in Fresno County haven't put out a plan since the County doesn't really have it's own order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 15, 2020, 12:14:22 AM
Snohomish County is starting to look into some pneumonia cases from December that may have been undetected COVID-19. It was likely in the community long before we had our first confirmed case in late January.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/antibody-test-results-of-2-snohomish-county-residents-throw-into-question-timeline-of-coronaviruss-u-s-arrival/

I came down with an unusually strong cold in mid-January after some other people in my class sat near me while coughing away. Perhaps I should order a test for antibodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 15, 2020, 12:21:15 AM
Quote from: Bruce on May 15, 2020, 12:14:22 AM
Snohomish County is starting to look into some pneumonia cases from December that may have been undetected COVID-19. It was likely in the community long before we had our first confirmed case in late January.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/antibody-test-results-of-2-snohomish-county-residents-throw-into-question-timeline-of-coronaviruss-u-s-arrival/

I came down with an unusually strong cold in mid-January after some other people in my class sat near me while coughing away. Perhaps I should order a test for antibodies.

Had the same sentiment down here along with several other people.  There was some deaths in the Bay Area that confirmed that COVID-19 was in California at least by January if not sooner.  I'm still considering the antibody test but I don't know what it actually would prove this far after the fact.  Its not like I get a prize or something for antibodies, really there isn't much incentive given I still work from my office five days a week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 15, 2020, 12:48:13 AM
Apparently a Blockbuster Video of all things has survived time, obsolescence, and pandemic only to start thriving:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/world-last-blockbuster-overcame-netflix-170750841.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on May 15, 2020, 09:07:26 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

Chlorine kills it.

Does salt water kill it as well?  And what if you take a dip in a freshwater lake?

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 09:30:31 AM
Quote from: Bruce on May 15, 2020, 12:14:22 AM
Snohomish County is starting to look into some pneumonia cases from December that may have been undetected COVID-19. It was likely in the community long before we had our first confirmed case in late January.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/antibody-test-results-of-2-snohomish-county-residents-throw-into-question-timeline-of-coronaviruss-u-s-arrival/

I came down with an unusually strong cold in mid-January after some other people in my class sat near me while coughing away. Perhaps I should order a test for antibodies.
as far as I understand, X-ray they show has no similarity to covid images.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 15, 2020, 09:34:50 AM
Quote from: ixnay on May 15, 2020, 09:07:26 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 14, 2020, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 14, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 14, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.
Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

Chlorine kills it.

Does salt water kill it as well?  And what if you take a dip in a freshwater lake?

ixnay


No idea. The question was asked in the context of swimming pools opening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ET21 on May 15, 2020, 09:44:42 AM
Illinois announced that we're on tracked for a phase 3 shift by the end of this month. This means most non-essential businesses will be allowed to open with safety precautions in place. Some have already reopened after submitting a plan to the state health dept.

Chicago's mayor is also looking for ideas on how to continue some annual summertime activities in the city with input from the public. One idea brought up was drive-in concerts, similar to a drive-in movie theater.

This is all however as Cook County became the county with the highest amount of cases in the country, likely due to more widespread testing that has become available in the past couple of weeks. Also, some collar county sheriffs of Chicago are beginning to "rebel" against the stay at home by proclaiming they will not prosecute anyone who disobeys the order. This is due to these counties being linked to more densely populated Cook and DuPage counties in health regions, which were drawn based on available hospital capacity
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 15, 2020, 10:00:08 AM
Quote from: ET21 on May 15, 2020, 09:44:42 AM
This is all however as Cook County became the county with the highest amount of cases in the country

This is based more on county population (Cook ranks second behind only Los Angeles) than anything else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 15, 2020, 10:47:25 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 13, 2020, 10:16:36 PM
Our governor has delayed Phase One of reopening for Northern VA until May 28.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html (https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html)

It's also been delayed for Accomack County and the city of Richmond.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856796-en.html (https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856796-en.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 15, 2020, 10:47:58 AM
I downloaded a new contact tracing app called NOVID. It was developed by a professor in Pittsburgh. It's supposed to be very secure, and it uses contact tracing to help find cases of this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 15, 2020, 11:43:06 AM
Ocean City MD has lifted its ban on non-essential hotel and short-term lodging ban, and has lifted it's 14-day quarantine requirement for travelers from NY, NJ, or CT.

Meanwhile, DE has stated they will continue to patrol commonly traveled routes by out-of-state drivers to enforce Carney's self-quarantine requirement. Travelers will be stopped, asked some questions and given information about the 14-day quarantine.

One can avoid DE from the northeast to go to OCMD...if they want...but not easily...and not quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 15, 2020, 12:06:57 PM
QuoteCalifornia coronavirus deaths hit stubborn plateau; experts fearful about future
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-11/california-coronavirus-deaths-have-reached-stubborn-plateau

"If we were to see the kind of spike that's predicted in that model, that would be extraordinarily worrisome,"  said Barbara Ferrer, director of public health for Los Angeles County, which so far has seen 56% of all of California's coronavirus deaths despite being home to one-quarter of the state's population.

If the model's projections became reality, Ferrer said that would result in an even slower reopening of society in L.A. County or force the nation's most populous county to reimplement stricter stay-at-home measures. L.A. County implemented its first major easing of stay-at-home measures on Friday, allowing some retail businesses to open for curbside pickup, and plans to reopen beaches for active recreation this week.

Right now California is reporting nearly as many daily deaths as New York even as an influential model is forecasting that California will see a large increases in projected cumulative deaths by August.  This has led to LA County to extend their lock down measures for another 3 months.  But if California is unable to lower the daily deaths, what good are the current lock down orders doing?  A state could average 1000 deaths per day for 18 days (think New York) or a state could average 100 deaths per day for the next 6 months (think California).  Overall the deaths are the same.

(https://i.imgur.com/pwyI5vJ.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 15, 2020, 01:52:04 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 15, 2020, 11:43:06 AM
One can avoid DE from the northeast to go to OCMD...if they want...but not easily...and not quickly.

Best I can tell, it would add about 1:45 to the trip (I-95, US 322, US 1, PA 841, MD 213, US 301, MD 213, US 50; you might shave off a couple more minutes with MD 313, but it's negligible).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on May 15, 2020, 02:06:12 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 15, 2020, 11:43:06 AM
Ocean City MD has lifted its ban on non-essential hotel and short-term lodging ban, and has lifted it's 14-day quarantine requirement for travelers from NY, NJ, or CT.

Meanwhile, DE has stated they will continue to patrol commonly traveled routes by out-of-state drivers to enforce Carney's self-quarantine requirement. Travelers will be stopped, asked some questions and given information about the 14-day quarantine.

One can avoid DE from the northeast to go to OCMD...if they want...but not easily...and not quickly.
Or just invoke their right to remain silent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 03:24:54 PM
King County [Seattle, Bellevue] records no new coronavirus deaths for first time in over 2 months (https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/king-co-records-no-new-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-in-over-2-months): KOMO News, Seattle.

Quote from: komonews.com
Public health officials said 86 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed over the past 24 hours in King County - but not a single death. It was the first time that King County had recorded no new coronavirus deaths in a 24-hour period since March 7.
Quote from: komonews.com
The number of deaths and confirmed cases is rising at a slower rate than at the peak of the outbreak in late March and early April, but health experts say it is still too soon to begin moving to Phase 2 of the recovery in most parts of the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 15, 2020, 03:44:43 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 15, 2020, 01:52:04 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 15, 2020, 11:43:06 AM
One can avoid DE from the northeast to go to OCMD...if they want...but not easily...and not quickly.

Best I can tell, it would add about 1:45 to the trip (I-95, US 322, US 1, PA 841, MD 213, US 301, MD 213, US 50; you might shave off a couple more minutes with MD 313, but it's negligible).

DE troopers are not patrolling I-95, I-295,or I-495, so you wouldn't have to veer into PA at all...you could jump off at MD 279 to MD 213.  And you could actually take MD 213 to MD 313 to US 301 and that is a little faster. 

But it's absurd.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 15, 2020, 03:51:15 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 15, 2020, 03:44:43 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 15, 2020, 01:52:04 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 15, 2020, 11:43:06 AM
One can avoid DE from the northeast to go to OCMD...if they want...but not easily...and not quickly.

Best I can tell, it would add about 1:45 to the trip (I-95, US 322, US 1, PA 841, MD 213, US 301, MD 213, US 50; you might shave off a couple more minutes with MD 313, but it's negligible).

DE troopers are not patrolling I-95, I-295,or I-495, so you wouldn't have to veer into PA at all...you could jump off at MD 279 to MD 213.  And you could actually take MD 213 to MD 313 to US 301 and that is a little faster.

That's been my understanding, the focus was on routes heading to southern Delaware beach towns.

Whether Ocean City MD has opened up enough to be worth the hassle is another question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
So...  I was reading about the Asian Flu (H2N2) and Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemics, from 1657-8 and 1968-9 respectively.

H2N2
Worldwide death toll = 2 million
US death toll = 69 800

H3N2
Worldwide death toll = 1 million
US death toll = 100 000

In both cases, a vaccine became available within one year of the start of the pandemic.  In the case of H3N2, it was available just four months in.  My, how times have bureaucratic red tape has changed since then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 04:53:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
So...  I was reading about the Asian Flu (H2N2) and Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemics, from 1657-8 and 1968-9 respectively.

H2N2
Worldwide death toll = 2 million
US death toll = 69 800

H3N2
Worldwide death toll = 1 million
US death toll = 100 000

In both cases, a vaccine became available within one year of the start of the pandemic.  In the case of H3N2, it was available just four months in.  My, how times have bureaucratic red tape has changed since then.
Not sure what you mean. Flu vaccine is a known technology; much less so for a completely differnt virus. Still, 1 year is a possible (pretty optimistic) timeframe for the vaccine.
As for deaths and quarantines - US is at 88k deaths right now, and number would be much worse without drastic measures 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:55:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 04:53:46 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
So...  I was reading about the Asian Flu (H2N2) and Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemics, from 1657-8 and 1968-9 respectively.

H2N2
Worldwide death toll = 2 million
US death toll = 69 800

H3N2
Worldwide death toll = 1 million
US death toll = 100 000

In both cases, a vaccine became available within one year of the start of the pandemic.  In the case of H3N2, it was available just four months in.  My, how times have bureaucratic red tape has changed since then.

Not sure what you mean. Flu vaccine is a known technology; much less so for a completely differnt virus. Still, 1 year is a possible (pretty optimistic) timeframe for the vaccine.
As for deaths and quarantines - US is at 88k deaths right now, and number would be much worse without drastic measures 

What I mean is that it takes a LOT longer than four months to get a vaccine through the approval process nowadays.  A year and a half is the fast-track best-case scenario.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 05:02:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:55:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 04:53:46 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
So...  I was reading about the Asian Flu (H2N2) and Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemics, from 1657-8 and 1968-9 respectively.

H2N2
Worldwide death toll = 2 million
US death toll = 69 800

H3N2
Worldwide death toll = 1 million
US death toll = 100 000

In both cases, a vaccine became available within one year of the start of the pandemic.  In the case of H3N2, it was available just four months in.  My, how times have bureaucratic red tape has changed since then.

Not sure what you mean. Flu vaccine is a known technology; much less so for a completely differnt virus. Still, 1 year is a possible (pretty optimistic) timeframe for the vaccine.
As for deaths and quarantines - US is at 88k deaths right now, and number would be much worse without drastic measures 

What I mean is that it takes a LOT longer than four months to get a vaccine through the approval process nowadays.  A year and a half is the fast-track best-case scenario.
So far, there is no working candidate as far as I understand.
Also, flu vaccine is pretty much pre-approved as a concept, it is just about a specific virus flavor substituted into the process.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 05:49:22 PM
They had vaccines in the 1600s?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 15, 2020, 06:03:50 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 05:49:22 PM
They had vaccines in the 1600s?
I don't think so, the smallpox vaccine got invented in 1796.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 15, 2020, 06:51:53 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 05:49:22 PM
They had vaccines in the 1600s?

If I remember right vaccines started when people began experimenting with injecting themselves with known diseases.  Apparently they would do things like grind up puss from stuff like small pox and inject it via needle tip scratches.  Apparently people would often get sick but it would be less severe and render most immune from reinfection. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 07:19:00 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 15, 2020, 06:03:50 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 05:49:22 PM
They had vaccines in the 1600s?
I don't think so, the smallpox vaccine got invented in 1796.

I was responding to kphoger's comment about "the Asian Flu (H2N2) [pandemic], from 1657-8..."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 15, 2020, 07:33:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 07:19:00 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 15, 2020, 06:03:50 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 05:49:22 PM
They had vaccines in the 1600s?
I don't think so, the smallpox vaccine got invented in 1796.

I was responding to kphoger's comment about "the Asian Flu (H2N2) [pandemic], from 1657-8..."

Wikipedia says it's just a typo (the 6 should be a 9).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 09:30:36 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 15, 2020, 07:33:12 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 07:19:00 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 15, 2020, 06:03:50 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 15, 2020, 05:49:22 PM
They had vaccines in the 1600s?
I don't think so, the smallpox vaccine got invented in 1796.

I was responding to kphoger's comment about "the Asian Flu (H2N2) [pandemic], from 1657-8..."

Wikipedia says it's just a typo (the 6 should be a 9).

I did eventually figure it out. Just not used to him making errors. When I first read the comment, I genuinely thought he meant "1657-8" and spent way too long researching to make sure it was wrong. Nothing against him, of course. Just caught me off guard. Put simply, there are users here who make many errors, and some who don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 15, 2020, 09:35:48 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 04:53:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
So...  I was reading about the Asian Flu (H2N2) and Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemics, from 1657-8 and 1968-9 respectively.

H2N2
Worldwide death toll = 2 million
US death toll = 69 800

H3N2
Worldwide death toll = 1 million
US death toll = 100 000

In both cases, a vaccine became available within one year of the start of the pandemic.  In the case of H3N2, it was available just four months in.  My, how times have bureaucratic red tape has changed since then.
Not sure what you mean. Flu vaccine is a known technology; much less so for a completely differnt virus. Still, 1 year is a possible (pretty optimistic) timeframe for the vaccine.
As for deaths and quarantines - US is at 88k deaths right now, and number would be much worse without drastic measures 
I can't help but wonder if the fact that the coronavirus vaccine candidates are RNA vaccines, a completely unproven way to make vaccines that has never been tried before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 09:50:10 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 15, 2020, 09:35:48 PM

I can't help but wonder if the fact that the coronavirus vaccine candidates are RNA vaccines, a completely unproven way to make vaccines that has never been tried before.
Not all of them...
(https://media.nature.com/lw800/magazine-assets/d41573-020-00073-5/d41573-020-00073-5_17880746.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 16, 2020, 12:59:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:55:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 15, 2020, 04:53:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 15, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
So...  I was reading about the Asian Flu (H2N2) and Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemics, from 1657-8 and 1968-9 respectively.
{...}
In both cases, a vaccine became available within one year of the start of the pandemic.  In the case of H3N2, it was available just four months in.  My, how times have bureaucratic red tape has changed since then.

Not sure what you mean. Flu vaccine is a known technology; much less so for a completely differnt virus. Still, 1 year is a possible (pretty optimistic) timeframe for the vaccine.

What I mean is that it takes a LOT longer than four months to get a vaccine through the approval process nowadays.  A year and a half is the fast-track best-case scenario.

There's a false equivalence here. Influenza vaccines have existed since 1945. When a new strain emerges, it is a comparatively simple process to take the existing, known method of vaccinating against influenza and adapt it to the new strain. This is why in 1957 and 1968 a vaccine was available in a matter of months, and you may note that this was also the case in 2009 with swine flu.

But covid-19 is different. The reason we can't come up with something that fast for it isn't because of bureaucracy. It's because there are no existing coronavirus vaccines that we can just take and adapt to this new strain - we have to create one mostly from scratch. That takes longer.

Fortunately, some of the early development work was started in 2002 for SARS (and subsequently abandoned once SARS was successfully contained, thus rendering the vaccine unnecessary), so we're not starting completely from scratch. If not for SARS we'd be saying 2 years instead of 18 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 16, 2020, 07:41:14 PM
So here's some fun science:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340418430_Airborne_transmission_of_COVID-19_epidemiologic_evidence_from_two_outbreak_investigations

A case study from China involving a group of people who all rode a charter bus together. One of them was infected, but asymptomatic, at the time of the bus ride. Of the 66 other people on the bus, 23 of them got infected, but - here's the money fact: the 23 people who got infected were scattered all over the bus. There was absolutely NO correlation with how close to the previously infected individual they were sitting:
(https://i.imgur.com/lQyBMLV.png)

Another key fact here is that the windows on the bus were closed and the bus' HVAC system was recirculating air.

So what's the takeaway from this? Well, for one, the takeaway is that, at least indoors, forget about the whole 6 feet thing - spacing people out won't reduce the risk. On the other hand, we have good reason to believe that ventilation will - so, if you're going to have people in an enclosed space together (vehicle, room, whatever), open all the windows. Or, if this isn't feasible, set your HVAC system to pull in as much outside air as it can. Either way, do not have people gathering in a room that you cannot make well-ventilated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 16, 2020, 11:08:56 PM
That hiking expedition into Sierra National Forest went off without a hitch yesterday to Stevenson Creek Falls.  I was a little surprised how many people were out hiking in such a remote part of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on a Friday but it doesn't help that the National Parks are still closed.  Most of the people I saw were definitely the typical Yosemite Valley crowd as opposed to the more seasoned hikers I'm used to seeing out in a National Forest.  That kind of indicates to me that people who are predisposed to at least casually enjoy the outdoors are going to do so one way or the other.  It doesn't seem like such a hot idea to push people deeper into National Forest where a lack of experience can actually get someone into trouble.  I'm planning on doing some cycling alone Blackrock Road and the Kings River out in Sierra/Sequoia National Forest next week...we'll see how that turns with the weather so nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 17, 2020, 12:22:02 AM
I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 12:26:13 AM
Atwater apparently declares itself a "Sanctuary City" ( :rolleyes:) from California's COVID-19 order:

https://ktla.com/news/california/atwater-declares-itself-a-sanctuary-from-californias-stay-at-home-order/

Now if the Castle Air Museum does reopen I might be paying a return visit.  The SR71 Blackbird is worth the visit alone.

In more minor news, my detail shop has announced they are reopening on Monday.  I'll probably be stopping by this week to get my daily driver waxed and interior cleaned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TravelingBethelite on May 17, 2020, 02:12:44 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 17, 2020, 12:22:02 AM
I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

I second this for similar reasons but also I desperately miss in-person classes. I can make online classes work but I just do not learn nearly as well as I do in person. This is especially the case with calculus, my worst subject and also one of the most important for my major.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 17, 2020, 08:46:49 AM
A federal judge in NC has granted church leaders a 14-day restraining order against the governor's ban on gatherings of more than 10 people.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/federal-judge-allows-nc-churches-to-meet-inside/19101332/ (https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/federal-judge-allows-nc-churches-to-meet-inside/19101332/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 17, 2020, 09:10:37 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 13, 2020, 05:48:10 PM
....

Side note: Clergy and funeral directors will likely be a little busier than normal this summer due to the backlog of funerals and memorial services for people who have passed since early March.

My wife's sister died of cancer on March 31. The memorial service is set for May 30 precisely to avoid the sort of backlog you mention. The funeral home is going to livestream it so those of us unwilling to travel can see it. (She's going to be interred in Ohio, so Ms1995hoo and I are taking care of that this fall once travel is a more reasonable option.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ghYHZ on May 17, 2020, 09:39:36 AM
Help me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 10:38:28 AM
Quote from: ghYHZ on May 17, 2020, 09:39:36 AM
Help me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.

You pay if you don't have insurance.  Even with insurance a hospital stay is usually a hefty bill after "reasonable and customary charges."   When I was run over by a car my insurance paid $17,000 roughly, I still had to pick up $900 of the tab.  My insurance was good, people with high deductibles are going to have a bad day when the bill comes.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 17, 2020, 11:18:08 AM
The other thing is, the rate the uninsured person pays (the "chargemaster" rate) is not the same as the rate someone with insurance pays, especially if the insured person goes to an "in-network" facility. This is an oversimplification, but essentially, the normal procedure is that a provider (doctor, hospital, etc.) that contracts to be part of the insurance carrier's network agrees to accept a specific amount for a particular service and the patient is not billed for the difference (other than any deductible or coinsurance, but those are a matter between the carrier and the patient, not between the patient and the provider). If you go to a "out-of-network" provider, they don't have a contract with the carrier and they can bill you for the difference between the insurance payment and the full rate. (Some medical insurance won't pay anything at all for out-of-network services other than emergency room care. HMOs are a classic example of that, but there are also "in-network-only" plans through traditional insurance. If you have Blue Cross Blue Shield, this isn't that big of a problem because a majority of providers are in-network with them; if you have a lesser carrier, it can be a problem–I used to have difficulties getting in-network service when I had CIGNA for two years.)

To give an example, my dentist is out-of-network on my dental insurance. A cleaning without x-rays costs $98. Insurance pays $87. If he were in-network, the $87 would cover the whole cost, but since he's not, I pay the $11 difference. (Why do I go to an out-of-network dentist? I've gone to him since 1984 and he does a good job. The dental insurance is primarily for my wife and she goes to an in-network provider.) Obviously, $11 isn't a big deal, but multiply that out to some larger amount for more serious medical procedures or inpatient things requiring hospital stays and you'll see how the bills could be crippling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 17, 2020, 11:52:19 AM
Quote from: ghYHZ on May 17, 2020, 09:39:36 AMHelp me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.

Unemployed people losing their health insurance--yes, that is a big problem.

People not seeking medical attention they need because they don't have insurance--yes, also a big problem.

Long and short of it:  we are going to hell in a handbasket.

Besides deductibles/co-pays (which can really drive household debt even if they don't actually result in medical bankruptcies), and the difference between negotiated rates and the chargemaster, we have inflexible enrollment windows.  There has actually been a proposal to reopen the Obamacare exchanges (which normally open only in the late autumn for plans that take effect for the following calendar year) to allow people who had insurance but lost it, or possibly never had it in the first place, to buy insurance so they are covered if they come down with COVID-19.  I am not aware action has been taken on it.

Under Obamacare, you used to need "qualifying health insurance" in order not to face a fine (really a tax calculated from your AGI with a floor in the hundreds of dollars).  The Trump administration no longer enforces this requirement, so many people choose to go without insurance.  And even bare Medicare--which will not protect you from bankruptcy if you have serious health problems, because it comes with a 20% copay for most services; most retirees have a Medicare supplement plan to cover it--constitutes qualifying health insurance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ghYHZ on May 17, 2020, 01:14:50 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 17, 2020, 11:52:19 AM
Quote from: ghYHZ on May 17, 2020, 09:39:36 AMHelp me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.

Unemployed people losing their health insurance--yes, that is a big problem.

People not seeking medical attention they need because they don't have insurance--yes, also a big problem.

Long and short of it:  we are going to hell in a handbasket.


This just blows me away! It's something I don't even think about. My out of pocket cost 'if' a Covid hospital stay in the ICU was required would be $0. There are no premiums, deductibles or co-pays.

Sure my taxes might be a bit higher. But comparing that on a monthly basis (doing a rough calculation) is not nearly as much as my brother-in-law in the US now pays for his health insurance premiums and deductibles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 03:06:12 PM
I'm watching the NASCAR pre-race at Darlington.  I'm kind of regretting watching the pre-race, I'm more than a little burnt out on the "changed world and this has never happened before" talk.  The medical stuff and preparations are kind of interesting to hear about though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 17, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
Coverage... varies.

My insurance which is through my employer announced at the beginning of April that they would cover 100% of the cost of any covid-related healthcare through May 31st, regardless of whether you have met your deductible or not. I was told expect this to be extended though I have not yet seen any announcement to such effect.

Some states are using taxpayer money to cover the cost of testing specifically, but in other states you have to pay even for that if you don't have insurance. I don't know to what degree this may extend to the cost of subsequent medical care.

It has been observed that Americans in lower-income households are getting sick and dying at far greater rates than Americans in higher-income households. There is a plethora of reasons why, but out-of-pocket costs for healthcare certainly aren't helping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 17, 2020, 04:27:44 PM
QuoteThere has actually been a proposal to reopen the Obamacare exchanges (which normally open only in the late autumn for plans that take effect for the following calendar year) to allow people who had insurance but lost it, or possibly never had it in the first place, to buy insurance so they are covered if they come down with COVID-19.  I am not aware action has been taken on it.

This shouldn't be an issue. If you have a "qualifying event," even outside the open enrollment season, you can go to the exchange and sign up for insurance. I did that in 2018 when I lost my medical insurance because my wife lost her job during the spring–I simply had to provide evidence she had lost her job. The Obamacare coverage is very expensive, though, so it's not at all a particularly good solution for most people who lose their jobs–it costs significantly more than the employee's share of most employer-subsidized coverage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 17, 2020, 05:18:06 PM
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on May 17, 2020, 02:12:44 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 17, 2020, 12:22:02 AM
I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

I second this for similar reasons but also I desperately miss in-person classes. I can make online classes work but I just do not learn nearly as well as I do in person. This is especially the case with calculus, my worst subject and also one of the most important for my major.

Take this as an opportunity to build the skills to learn without an instructor. Once you graduate, you'll still need to keep learning–the world doesn't stop changing, and new skills will be needed for employment–there just won't be anyone there to teach it to you except you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 18, 2020, 02:26:02 PM
Governor Baker has announced plans to start reopening Massachusetts.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/gov-charlie-baker-to-detail-reopening-massachusetts/2126266/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on May 18, 2020, 05:41:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 03:06:12 PM
I'm watching the NASCAR pre-race at Darlington.  I'm kind of regretting watching the pre-race, I'm more than a little burnt out on the "changed world and this has never happened before" talk.  The medical stuff and preparations are kind of interesting to hear about though.

I'm about ready to put a brick through my television the next time I hear the announcer on some retail company's commercial talking about "these uncertain times" with emotional music in the background.  Just get to the real message, which is that you want us to still buy your product.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 05:59:12 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on May 18, 2020, 05:41:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 17, 2020, 03:06:12 PM
I'm watching the NASCAR pre-race at Darlington.  I'm kind of regretting watching the pre-race, I'm more than a little burnt out on the "changed world and this has never happened before" talk.  The medical stuff and preparations are kind of interesting to hear about though.

I'm about ready to put a brick through my television the next time I hear the announcer on some retail company's commercial talking about "these uncertain times" with emotional music in the background.  Just get to the real message, which is that you want us to still buy your product.

It kind of made me thing; "what times are actually certain for most people?"   Most people live paycheck to paycheck even before the virus stuff happened, any little thing could have potentially brought on "uncertainty."   Hell, anyone of us could get sick from horrible disease or suffer a horrific injury...there isn't any certainty to any of that.  I think that there is a lot of reason to believe that most place "routine and normalcy"  as the same thing as "certainty and stability."   Either way, it's annoying hearing how awful the world is by every single entity attempting to advertise something. 

The worst is the commercials with celebrity types telling people to stay home.  The last thing I'll listen to is the advice of someone like Kim Kardashian. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 18, 2020, 06:06:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 17, 2020, 12:22:02 AM
I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.
Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 06:09:00 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 18, 2020, 06:06:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 17, 2020, 12:22:02 AM
I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.
Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.

Apparently there had been a ton of extra military retention given most colleges don't have a clear plan for the next semester.  The stable paycheck of a military renewal seems to be a pretty attractive, especially when the GI bill can be kicked down the road. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on May 18, 2020, 06:18:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 06:09:00 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 18, 2020, 06:06:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 17, 2020, 12:22:02 AM
I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.
Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.

Apparently there had been a ton of extra military retention given most colleges don't have a clear plan for the next semester.  The stable paycheck of a military renewal seems to be a pretty attractive, especially when the GI bill can be kicked down the road.

Not to mention the awesome socialized medical coverage for life that is the VA!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 06:38:46 PM
Quote from: MikieTimT on May 18, 2020, 06:18:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 06:09:00 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 18, 2020, 06:06:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 17, 2020, 12:22:02 AM
I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.
Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.

Apparently there had been a ton of extra military retention given most colleges don't have a clear plan for the next semester.  The stable paycheck of a military renewal seems to be a pretty attractive, especially when the GI bill can be kicked down the road.

Not to mention the awesome socialized medical coverage for life that is the VA!!

Even Tricare and access to something like a military base clinic look pretty good right now.  Usually those clinics are ghost towns compared to the outside world. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 07:41:40 PM
Oregon's stay at home order was tossed out in a court appeal.  Apparently the governor only issue an emergency declaration without legislative approval for one month:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/judge-tosses-coronavirus-restrictions-oregon-201711786.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on May 18, 2020, 10:44:13 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 07:41:40 PM
Oregon's stay at home order was tossed out in a court appeal.  Apparently the governor only issue an emergency declaration without legislative approval for one month:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/judge-tosses-coronavirus-restrictions-oregon-201711786.html

Last Week, Wisconsin's Supreme Court ruled that the governor cannot unilaterally renew an emergency declaration without legislative assent.  Here the maximum is two months.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 11:33:00 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on May 18, 2020, 10:44:13 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 07:41:40 PM
Oregon's stay at home order was tossed out in a court appeal.  Apparently the governor only issue an emergency declaration without legislative approval for one month:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/judge-tosses-coronavirus-restrictions-oregon-201711786.html

Last Week, Wisconsin's Supreme Court ruled that the governor cannot unilaterally renew an emergency declaration without legislative assent.  Here the maximum is two months.

Mike

Yes, pretty much the exact same thing too.  I find it kind of strange that a lot of these Governor's offices are either naive to their own emergency laws or surprised this is what happens when they ignore the legislative process.  I know a lot of people were pissed about what happened in Wisconsin but shouldn't the Governor's office been aware that an extension would have required state legislature approval?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 19, 2020, 02:08:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 11:33:00 PM
Yes, pretty much the exact same thing too.  I find it kind of strange that a lot of these Governor's offices are either naive to their own emergency laws or surprised this is what happens when they ignore the legislative process.  I know a lot of people were pissed about what happened in Wisconsin but shouldn't the Governor's office been aware that an extension would have required state legislature approval?

At least in Wisconsin's case, the legislature was unlikely to approve. So the governor's choices realistically were to say "oh well I'm not going to be able to impose any statewide restrictions after this point" and then roll over about it, or play political hardball and put up a fight to try to keep them in place as long as possible. He chose the latter.


As for Oregon, the state supreme court still needs to look at it so we don't yet know how this will ultimately play out. That said the enabling statute (https://www.oregonlaws.org/ors/433.441) for the governor to declare a public health emergency doesn't necessarily make it clear cut which way this will ultimately go. The passage in question is this:
QuoteA proclamation of a state of public health emergency expires when terminated by a declaration of the Governor or no more than 14 days after the date the public health emergency is proclaimed unless the Governor expressly extends the proclamation for an additional 14-day period.

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit are arguing that this only allows for a single 14-day extension, thus meaning the public health emergency cannot be extended past 28 days without legislative action. The defense, meanwhile, will argue that it doesn't explicitly say an extension can only happen once.

I don't know if there is any prior case law from Oregon on this matter but I am guessing there is not.

Regardless, if I were the governor right now I'd be asking the legislature to convene and explicitly pass something allowing for the emergency to be extended, and thus render the court case moot. Oregon's legislature, unlike Wisconsin's, would likely approve such a request.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 19, 2020, 06:07:31 AM
Minnesota moving into Phase 1 of reopening was one of those things no one seems real happy about, since the governor's supporters feel he caved to the pressure from the right, while the right is obviously not satisfied with anything less than full and immediate reopens. I think courts getting involved in other states probably also provided pressure for something to be done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 19, 2020, 08:23:47 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on May 19, 2020, 02:08:57 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 11:33:00 PM
Yes, pretty much the exact same thing too.  I find it kind of strange that a lot of these Governor's offices are either naive to their own emergency laws or surprised this is what happens when they ignore the legislative process.  I know a lot of people were pissed about what happened in Wisconsin but shouldn't the Governor's office been aware that an extension would have required state legislature approval?

At least in Wisconsin's case, the legislature was unlikely to approve. So the governor's choices realistically were to say "oh well I'm not going to be able to impose any statewide restrictions after this point" and then roll over about it, or play political hardball and put up a fight to try to keep them in place as long as possible. He chose the latter.


As for Oregon, the state supreme court still needs to look at it so we don't yet know how this will ultimately play out. That said the enabling statute (https://www.oregonlaws.org/ors/433.441) for the governor to declare a public health emergency doesn't necessarily make it clear cut which way this will ultimately go. The passage in question is this:
QuoteA proclamation of a state of public health emergency expires when terminated by a declaration of the Governor or no more than 14 days after the date the public health emergency is proclaimed unless the Governor expressly extends the proclamation for an additional 14-day period.

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit are arguing that this only allows for a single 14-day extension, thus meaning the public health emergency cannot be extended past 28 days without legislative action. The defense, meanwhile, will argue that it doesn't explicitly say an extension can only happen once.

I don't know if there is any prior case law from Oregon on this matter but I am guessing there is not.

Regardless, if I were the governor right now I'd be asking the legislature to convene and explicitly pass something allowing for the emergency to be extended, and thus render the court case moot. Oregon's legislature, unlike Wisconsin's, would likely approve such a request.

I'm actually really curious to see how things play out in Oregon.  Given the close proximity to where I live I had a trip planned through the state en route to Boise.  There isn't much point in executing those plans unless some of the restrictions here and Oregon start to loosen up.  Seeing challenges or disputes about legislative process is always something I find fascinating.  Scanning the news it looks like the Oregon Supreme Court reinstated they order and stated the matter needed to be heard by at their level:

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-oregon-supreme-court-reinstates-restrictions-20200519-4x4yj6dkwfemtec5thuvq64qhy-story.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on May 19, 2020, 08:57:33 AM
The court told Oregon to keep their order for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 19, 2020, 08:59:19 AM
Oregon is actually doing really well (and has been the entire time). However, I said the same about Minnesota a few weeks ago, and look what happened...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 19, 2020, 09:00:54 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 19, 2020, 08:59:19 AM
Oregon is actually doing really well (and has been the entire time). However, I said the same about Minnesota a few weeks ago, and look what happened...

Minnesota had an outbreak at a meatpacker.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 19, 2020, 09:08:09 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 19, 2020, 09:00:54 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 19, 2020, 08:59:19 AM
Oregon is actually doing really well (and has been the entire time). However, I said the same about Minnesota a few weeks ago, and look what happened...

Minnesota had an outbreak at a meatpacker.
Meatpacking plants have seemed to be hotspots for this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: roadman65 on May 19, 2020, 09:25:58 AM
How come law enforcement officers are mask less?  They deal with people when they pull over or better yet what about a person they have to transport in their back seat?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 19, 2020, 09:36:06 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on May 19, 2020, 09:25:58 AM
How come law enforcement officers are mask less?  They deal with people when they pull over or better yet what about a person they have to transport in their back seat?

Too many lawyers who will use the mask as a claim that the officer gave unclear instructions or asked unclear questions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 19, 2020, 10:42:28 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 18, 2020, 11:33:00 PMYes, pretty much the exact same thing too.  I find it kind of strange that a lot of these Governor's offices are either naive to their own emergency laws or surprised this is what happens when they ignore the legislative process.  I know a lot of people were pissed about what happened in Wisconsin but shouldn't the Governor's office been aware that an extension would have required state legislature approval?

As we discovered in Kansas when we had a fight over our governor's attempt to extend the ten-person cap on gatherings to church services, state emergency-management statutes can raise complex constitutional questions not just in terms of fundamental freedoms but also separation of powers.  When the gathering cap first went to court, the Kansas Supreme Court ignored the whole First Amendment dimension in favor of ruling that since the action the legislature relied on in trying to overturn the order, a joint resolution, was not a bill passed by both houses and presented to the governor for signature, it could not be used as a basis for challenging an order validly adopted under the Kansas Emergency Management Act.  It was not until the churches went to federal court that a compromise was worked out whereby services could have more than ten persons but strict social distancing requirements applied.

So it isn't a simple question of ignorance of the black-letter law.  In many (perhaps most) states there are murky aspects for which there is no clear precedent as to what is constitutional, and especially when there is divided control (as in Kansas where Republicans control both houses of the legislature but the governor is a Democrat), that can give rise to political brinkmanship.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 19, 2020, 10:42:39 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 19, 2020, 08:59:19 AM
Oregon is actually doing really well (and has been the entire time). However, I said the same about Minnesota a few weeks ago, and look what happened...

There are currently 13 states with 5 deaths per 100k or fewer.  Some of these states have seen a decline to near zero new cases while other states are seeing a slow and steady rise in new cases even while they were in the midst of lock-downs (Oregon included):

(https://i.imgur.com/h3ZBxzu.png)

It's interesting to compare the curves of Louisiana and Minnesota.  Louisiana was hit hard early in the pandemic (most of their cases being contracted even before the lock downs took effect).  OTOH, Minnesota had relatively few cases through March and early April but have recently seen exponential growth in new cases (even during the lock downs).  But keep in mind Minnesota still has 20k fewer COVID cases than Louisiana despite the fact that Minnesota has 1 million more people.  That spike in Minnesota may get much worse once things reopen (as the state still doesn't have a high level of herd immunity when compared to Louisiana).   

(https://i.imgur.com/9KoBOLx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 19, 2020, 11:44:56 AM
Here is a tale of 4 states.  They were all at one point following the 3 day doubling curve.  What state are you in?  I think the majority of states would fall in the "wait and see" category.

Containment state (Vermont):  Fell off the curve and was able to contain the virus. 

Wait and see state (Missouri):  Fell off the curve and new cases have plateaued for weeks. 

Losing the battle state (Minnesota): Fell off the curve and cases plateaued only to see a big spike in new cases.

Worst is over state
(Louisiana): Got hit hard from the beginning of the outbreak but now are seeing cases drop precipitously.

(https://i.imgur.com/9X3zFWC.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&doublingtime=3&location=Louisiana&location=Minnesota&location=Missouri&location=Vermont
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 19, 2020, 02:07:29 PM
Kansas cases seem to be bouncing up and down now.  I see a similarity between this state's trend and that of Arkansas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 03:27:02 PM
I believe the right thing was done issuing the emergency orders, and in most places it probably looks like an overreaction only because it was done, because if it hadn't been there probably would have been a lot more disasters.  However, I agree with the legislatures about the limits of emergencies.  When something severe happens, immediate action is needed.  Legislatures are not designed for immediate action, they're intended to be deliberative so that they (hopefully) make good decisions for the longer term.  Only executives can make and implement quick decisions to respond to emergency situations.

The way I see it, the emergency isn't strictly defined by how bad a situation is, but also by how new it is.  Right now, ending a state of emergency and going back to normal governing doesn't mean that the bad situation is over, but it means that the legislative body has had time to convene, gather information, and deliberate an appropriate course of action.  What had been an emergency isn't short-term, it's the new normal.  Normal is now bad, but it's an ongoing situation to which government must adapt.  In states like Texas, where the legislature isn't allowed to convene except for defined sessions, unless the governor calls for a special session, the governors should have called special sessions as soon as it became clear that emergency orders were needed and would likely be needed for a prolonged period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 19, 2020, 04:00:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 19, 2020, 02:07:29 PM
Kansas cases seem to be bouncing up and down now.  I see a similarity between this state's trend and that of Arkansas.

It could be the result of irregularities and/or lags between testing and reporting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 19, 2020, 04:50:39 PM
I would place Michigan somewhere between "wait and see" and "worst is over".

32 counties in Michigan (the entire UP plus 17 counties in the northern Lower Peninsula, including my home county) can open retail and dine-in restaurants (at 50% capacity) on Friday (a week earlier than what many were expecting). I would expect some more counties (maybe even the rest of the state outside Metro Detroit) to join that group either next week or the week after.

Michigan's cases kind of bounce up and down with a slight downward trend, but they've been testing way more in the past couple of weeks (and some of the cases might be backlogged from earlier). The majority of the cases likely fall in one of these categories:
1. Exposed prior to everything shutting down
2. Close contact with other cases
3. Long term care facilities (a significant portion of the state's deaths are in LTCFs in metro Detroit and most of the rural counties with relatively high caseloads had an outbreak in an LTCF)
4. Prisons (MI includes inmate cases in the total # of cases, but reports them separately from county data)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 04:52:51 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 19, 2020, 04:00:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 19, 2020, 02:07:29 PM
Kansas cases seem to be bouncing up and down now.  I see a similarity between this state's trend and that of Arkansas.

It could be the result of irregularities and/or lags between testing and reporting.

Generally you use running averages to smooth things out.  But this virus seems strange to me.  I'm not a statistician, so maybe there's a reason for this I'm not familiar with, but even on the national scale and global scale, large enough that you'd think the irregularities would smooth out, since not every place has the same irregularities, the daily new cases numbers follow a fairly regular wave pattern with peaks and troughs.  I would expect this would be more random, with an average daily number of X over a weeklong period, and each day staying mostly within a certain percentage of that number, but randomly either higher or lower.  In such a pattern, waves would sometimes happen by chance, but you wouldn't expect waves consistently.  It isn't a perfect wave pattern.  Sometimes it goes up, down, then up.  But it isn't nearly as random as I would expect.

On Worldometer, the global "Total Serious and Critical Cases" graph shows a very broad wave, with a quick climb to a peak on April 29 and a slow descent, but within that the numbers go up and down with seemingly no order.  That's what I would expect.  On the Johns Hopkins site, the New Jersey daily numbers show a broad wave with a lot of day-to-day chaos.  New York seems to be settling into a regular diminishing wave pattern.  Texas shows a broadly growing wave with a lot of daily randomness.  That's the pattern I would expect.  Does anyone more familiar with numbers know why such a large scale event would follow a pattern of waves?  Should it be more random?  Am I misreading the graphs and seeing more order than what exists?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 19, 2020, 06:09:19 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 19, 2020, 10:42:39 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/h3ZBxzu.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/9KoBOLx.png)

Why should anyone take a graph with no y-axis seriously?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 19, 2020, 06:17:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 19, 2020, 06:09:19 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 19, 2020, 10:42:39 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/h3ZBxzu.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/9KoBOLx.png)

Why should anyone take a graph with no y-axis seriously?
Won't tell you raw deaths, but you can still tell the curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 19, 2020, 06:19:45 PM
Quote from: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 04:52:51 PM
Generally you use running averages to smooth things out.  But this virus seems strange to me.  I'm not a statistician, so maybe there's a reason for this I'm not familiar with, but even on the national scale and global scale, large enough that you'd think the irregularities would smooth out, since not every place has the same irregularities, the daily new cases numbers follow a fairly regular wave pattern with peaks and troughs.  I would expect this would be more random, with an average daily number of X over a weeklong period, and each day staying mostly within a certain percentage of that number, but randomly either higher or lower.  In such a pattern, waves would sometimes happen by chance, but you wouldn't expect waves consistently.  It isn't a perfect wave pattern.  Sometimes it goes up, down, then up.  But it isn't nearly as random as I would expect.

On Worldometer, the global "Total Serious and Critical Cases" graph shows a very broad wave, with a quick climb to a peak on April 29 and a slow descent, but within that the numbers go up and down with seemingly no order.  That's what I would expect.  On the Johns Hopkins site, the New Jersey daily numbers show a broad wave with a lot of day-to-day chaos.  New York seems to be settling into a regular diminishing wave pattern.  Texas shows a broadly growing wave with a lot of daily randomness.  That's the pattern I would expect.  Does anyone more familiar with numbers know why such a large scale event would follow a pattern of waves?  Should it be more random?  Am I misreading the graphs and seeing more order than what exists?

It's probably best to use a 7-day rolling average. On some days of the week, fewer tests are released, and not as many counties report the number of deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 19, 2020, 06:22:12 PM
Wow, I used to think I was more terrified of germs than everyone else who ever lived. But if the guidelines for controlling this virus wore on me in March, I can only imagine how rough it must be for everyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 06:23:47 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 19, 2020, 06:09:19 PM
Why should anyone take a graph with no y-axis seriously?

Each one has a y-axis where the bottom is zero and the top is the high point of the line.  The purpose is to compare the shapes and directions, not the heights.  If each state had a y-axis as high as New York's, you could compare the heights, but it would make the changes in direction harder to see on the very short curves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 19, 2020, 07:38:38 PM
Quote from: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 06:23:47 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 19, 2020, 06:09:19 PM
Why should anyone take a graph with no y-axis seriously?

Each one has a y-axis where the bottom is zero and the top is the high point of the line.  The purpose is to compare the shapes and directions, not the heights.  If each state had a y-axis as high as New York's, you could compare the heights, but it would make the changes in direction harder to see on the very short curves.

Except since they're not labeled, you have no frame of reference for any of the numbers. So you have no idea if the graph maker is doing stupid shit like this.

(https://i.imgur.com/sPzIxn7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 19, 2020, 08:07:44 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 19, 2020, 06:19:45 PM
Quote from: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 04:52:51 PM
Generally you use running averages to smooth things out.  But this virus seems strange to me.  I'm not a statistician, so maybe there's a reason for this I'm not familiar with, but even on the national scale and global scale, large enough that you'd think the irregularities would smooth out, since not every place has the same irregularities, the daily new cases numbers follow a fairly regular wave pattern with peaks and troughs.  I would expect this would be more random, with an average daily number of X over a weeklong period, and each day staying mostly within a certain percentage of that number, but randomly either higher or lower.  In such a pattern, waves would sometimes happen by chance, but you wouldn't expect waves consistently.  It isn't a perfect wave pattern.  Sometimes it goes up, down, then up.  But it isn't nearly as random as I would expect.

On Worldometer, the global "Total Serious and Critical Cases" graph shows a very broad wave, with a quick climb to a peak on April 29 and a slow descent, but within that the numbers go up and down with seemingly no order.  That's what I would expect.  On the Johns Hopkins site, the New Jersey daily numbers show a broad wave with a lot of day-to-day chaos.  New York seems to be settling into a regular diminishing wave pattern.  Texas shows a broadly growing wave with a lot of daily randomness.  That's the pattern I would expect.  Does anyone more familiar with numbers know why such a large scale event would follow a pattern of waves?  Should it be more random?  Am I misreading the graphs and seeing more order than what exists?

It's probably best to use a 7-day rolling average. On some days of the week, fewer tests are released, and not as many counties report the number of deaths.

Exactly this. Here's an example:

Georgia deaths reported on Sundays:
4/5 – 10
4/12 – 5
4/19 – 14
4/26 – 8
5/3 – 3
5/10 – 5
5/17 – 14
Last 7 weeks total: 59

Georgia deaths reported on Mondays:
4/6 – 18
4/13 – 31
4/20 – 46
4/27 – 59
5/4 – 45
5/11 – 36
5/18 – 36
Last 7 weeks total: 271

Does the virus really kill five times as many people on Mondays? Probably not. It's all about reporting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 08:30:01 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 19, 2020, 08:07:44 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 19, 2020, 06:19:45 PM
Quote from: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 04:52:51 PM
Generally you use running averages to smooth things out.  But this virus seems strange to me.  I'm not a statistician, so maybe there's a reason for this I'm not familiar with, but even on the national scale and global scale, large enough that you'd think the irregularities would smooth out, since not every place has the same irregularities, the daily new cases numbers follow a fairly regular wave pattern with peaks and troughs.  I would expect this would be more random, with an average daily number of X over a weeklong period, and each day staying mostly within a certain percentage of that number, but randomly either higher or lower.  In such a pattern, waves would sometimes happen by chance, but you wouldn't expect waves consistently.  It isn't a perfect wave pattern.  Sometimes it goes up, down, then up.  But it isn't nearly as random as I would expect.

On Worldometer, the global "Total Serious and Critical Cases" graph shows a very broad wave, with a quick climb to a peak on April 29 and a slow descent, but within that the numbers go up and down with seemingly no order.  That's what I would expect.  On the Johns Hopkins site, the New Jersey daily numbers show a broad wave with a lot of day-to-day chaos.  New York seems to be settling into a regular diminishing wave pattern.  Texas shows a broadly growing wave with a lot of daily randomness.  That's the pattern I would expect.  Does anyone more familiar with numbers know why such a large scale event would follow a pattern of waves?  Should it be more random?  Am I misreading the graphs and seeing more order than what exists?

It's probably best to use a 7-day rolling average. On some days of the week, fewer tests are released, and not as many counties report the number of deaths.

Exactly this. Here's an example:

Georgia deaths reported on Sundays:
4/5 – 10
4/12 – 5
4/19 – 14
4/26 – 8
5/3 – 3
5/10 – 5
5/17 – 14
Last 7 weeks total: 59

Georgia deaths reported on Mondays:
4/6 – 18
4/13 – 31
4/20 – 46
4/27 – 59
5/4 – 45
5/11 – 36
5/18 – 36
Last 7 weeks total: 271

Does the virus really kill five times as many people on Mondays? Probably not. It's all about reporting.

The global and US numbers do seem to be mostly on a week-long wave pattern.  I hadn't noticed that, but it could help explain the waves as reporting varies through the week.  Global new infections tend to peak on Friday, and US on Friday and for the past two weeks on Thursday.  Since the US numbers are so high, that would have a large influence the shape of the global pattern, which is another thing I didn't think of before.

The US daily death numbers have a less consistent, but still evident wave pattern, and it's just about weekly, too.  I would think that deaths would be reported more consistently since the actual dates are known, unlike when infections happen.  Still, the low points tend to be on Sundays, which I guess is understandable (although I don't like the idea that the death reporting business takes weekends off).  If they do take weekends off, I would expect something like the Georgia pattern, with high counts on Mondays, but the peaks tend to be on Tuesdays (which is even more upsetting if we're so lazy about reporting that it takes two to three days to report weekend deaths).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 19, 2020, 08:50:35 PM
Quote from: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 08:30:01 PMThe US daily death numbers have a less consistent, but still evident wave pattern, and it's just about weekly, too.  I would think that deaths would be reported more consistently since the actual dates are known, unlike when infections happen.

I haven't dug into the exact reporting chain for COVID-19 deaths, but I am reasonably certain that the day a given person appears in the COVID-19 death tally is usually not the same as the day that appears on his or her death certificate.  And some jurisdictions (e.g., Britain) explicitly do not include certain types of COVID-19 deaths in their daily totals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 19, 2020, 08:55:50 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 19, 2020, 11:44:56 AM
What state are you in?

I think Texas is in the wait and see state. For example, my home county has had an increase in active cases nearly each day, however, that may be because it has a high concentration of prisons and I don't think the prisons report recovered cases.

The rate change in new cases appears to be slowly increasing in both my county and the state as a whole, but I think that may be attributed to increased testing. Texas has increased its testing from approx 15000 per day to about 20000-25000 this last week.

However, Texas isn't out of the woods just yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on May 19, 2020, 09:39:02 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 19, 2020, 08:55:50 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 19, 2020, 11:44:56 AM
What state are you in?

I think Texas is in the wait and see state. For example, my home county has had an increase in active cases nearly each day, however, that may be because it has a high concentration of prisons and I don't think the prisons report recovered cases.

It was the same way in Wayne County in eastern North Carolina. The county now has over 800 cases, most of which is due to an outbreak at a state prison in Goldsboro. Recovered cases weren't being reported until the county Board of Commissioners became concerned that the number of cases was making the county look bad from a PR standpoint. Lo and behold, the local newspaper suddenly reported that most of the cases have recovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 19, 2020, 09:57:54 PM
For some reason the federal government is still moving immigration prisoners around.  It's like they're trying to spread the virus.  Jails, which are ideal places for viruses to spread, are getting infected federal prisoners and the virus spreads like wildfire.  In one case, the workers who were exposed had to quarantine in the jail so it wouldn't get out into the community.  What was reported is that those prisoners, at least the way Texas counts them, add to the state total but not the county totals, since they were imported from other states and don't reflect the conditions in the community.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 12:23:05 AM
California's current emergency order is presently under some hot water from the Department of Justice for not allowing churches to begin reopening in Phase 2:

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/05/19/california-order-discriminates-against-churches-u-s-says/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 20, 2020, 12:27:36 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 12:23:05 AM
California's current emergency order is presently under some hot water from the Department of Justice for not allowing churches to begin reopening in Phase 2:

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/05/19/california-order-discriminates-against-churches-u-s-says/
I mean, if a church is following strict guidelines, than they could reopen, but I'm not sure how many churches will. In Massachusetts many churches are remaining closed even after Baker will allow them to reopen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 12:32:12 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 20, 2020, 12:27:36 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 12:23:05 AM
California's current emergency order is presently under some hot water from the Department of Justice for not allowing churches to begin reopening in Phase 2:

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/05/19/california-order-discriminates-against-churches-u-s-says/
I mean, if a church is following strict guidelines, than they could reopen, but I'm not sure how many churches will. In Massachusetts many churches are remaining closed even after Baker will allow them to reopen.

Considering many churches in rural counties (including the one in the news lately in Butte County) already are in defiance of the State Order I would say quite a few. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 20, 2020, 04:20:36 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 19, 2020, 09:36:06 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on May 19, 2020, 09:25:58 AM
How come law enforcement officers are mask less?  They deal with people when they pull over or better yet what about a person they have to transport in their back seat?

Too many lawyers who will use the mask as a claim that the officer gave unclear instructions or asked unclear questions.

If HBO's Watchmen is any indication, masks would also conceal identity. This was intentional to protect the police from being tracked down and attacked/murdered.

It's actually quite humerous to see peace officers in various jurisdictions (locally and worldwide) who have been using masks or other face coverings, since it reminds me a ton of Watchmen, apart from them not being yellow:

(https://s3.us-east-1.wasabisys.com/localnews8.com/2020/04/IMG_0736-860x645.jpg)

Image from KIDK Idaho (https://localnews8.com/news/top-stories/2020/04/14/ifpd-adapts-new-processes-to-stay-safe-from-covid-19/) -- All police in Idaho Falls are now wearing masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 20, 2020, 11:09:43 AM
In Kentucky, fully two-thirds of the deaths are those in nursing homes, which indicates that age or other medical issues were indicated comorbidities. There was also a major outbreak in one prison in Western Kentucky. Nursing home-related infections and this one particular prison show that a large number of the cases tend to be concentrated in specific areas where repeated exposure in a closely-confined space is a major contributing factor. The nursing home in one county adjoining mine has seen an outsized number of infections and deaths. The two confirmed cases in another adjoining county were from people who worked at that particular nursing home.

My county is currently one of four in Kentucky that does not yet have a confirmed case. All residents and employees of our local nursing home were tested and all tests came back negative.

We had our largest single-day reported number of deaths yesterday -- 20 -- but even our fear-mongering and dictatorial governor acknowledged that the number was probably skewed due to reporting considerations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 20, 2020, 11:11:12 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 12:32:12 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 20, 2020, 12:27:36 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 12:23:05 AM
California's current emergency order is presently under some hot water from the Department of Justice for not allowing churches to begin reopening in Phase 2:

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/05/19/california-order-discriminates-against-churches-u-s-says/
I mean, if a church is following strict guidelines, than they could reopen, but I'm not sure how many churches will. In Massachusetts many churches are remaining closed even after Baker will allow them to reopen.

Considering many churches in rural counties (including the one in the news lately in Butte County) already are in defiance of the State Order I would say quite a few.

I think it should be the church's decision when they'll open up. There are some in rural areas that probably would be perfectly fine opening up but their state government is still on lockdown.
On the other hand, there probably are churches that would rather not open up right now, even though their state government says they can.

There are just so many factors in the logistics of churches that I don't think a definitive ban (or opening) for them would work. Nevertheless, they should all still follow social distancing rules.

For example, my church's main congregation is only meeting on Sundays at 9 and 11, with no childcare. Only every other pew will be available, and they will still stream services online just as they have for the past few months. Instead of doing a midweek service, they're letting the youth group use the main sanctuary on Wednesday nights.

My point still stands, though. I think it should be the church's decision when they open up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 20, 2020, 11:15:01 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 19, 2020, 09:39:02 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 19, 2020, 08:55:50 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 19, 2020, 11:44:56 AM
What state are you in?

I think Texas is in the wait and see state. For example, my home county has had an increase in active cases nearly each day, however, that may be because it has a high concentration of prisons and I don't think the prisons report recovered cases.

It was the same way in Wayne County in eastern North Carolina. The county now has over 800 cases, most of which is due to an outbreak at a state prison in Goldsboro. Recovered cases weren't being reported until the county Board of Commissioners became concerned that the number of cases was making the county look bad from a PR standpoint. Lo and behold, the local newspaper suddenly reported that most of the cases have recovered.
In Michigan, prison cases among inmates aren't counted among the county the prison is in; they're recorded separately as "Michigan Department of Corrections". Cases among employees, however, are reported in the county they live in (for example, about a third of Mason County's cases (and at least one case in a few other counties) are among prison workers at the private prison in Lake County)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 20, 2020, 12:16:06 PM
I think a large plurality of people accept that things are closed but will eagerly return immediately when things reopen. The "open everything now"  and "keep everything closed/boycott open business"  groups are just vocal minorities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 01:59:56 PM
Why are comments getting deleted? This is like the 10th time this has happened.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 20, 2020, 02:08:28 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 01:59:56 PM
Why are comments getting deleted? This is like the 10th time this has happened.


iPhone

Political discussion is prohibited unless it relates to roads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 02:19:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 20, 2020, 02:08:28 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 01:59:56 PM
Why are comments getting deleted? This is like the 10th time this has happened.


iPhone

Political discussion is prohibited unless it relates to roads.
On a corona virus thread? Eh ok.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 20, 2020, 02:26:44 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 02:19:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 20, 2020, 02:08:28 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 01:59:56 PM
Why are comments getting deleted? This is like the 10th time this has happened.


iPhone

Political discussion is prohibited unless it relates to roads.
On a corona virus thread? Eh ok.


iPhone
You can talking about the virus without getting too political.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 20, 2020, 03:00:16 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 20, 2020, 02:26:44 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 02:19:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 20, 2020, 02:08:28 PM
Quote from: Tonytone on May 20, 2020, 01:59:56 PM
Why are comments getting deleted? This is like the 10th time this has happened.


iPhone

Political discussion is prohibited unless it relates to roads.
On a corona virus thread? Eh ok.

You can talking about the virus without getting too political.

And even closures and the like.  You can say "Governor X is mandating that Y shuts down or reopens".  You cannot say "Governor X sucks donkey balls for his closure/reopen strategy".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 20, 2020, 03:02:42 PM
Quote from: Alps on May 06, 2020, 01:09:21 PM
Let's try to steer back away from politics... this is not a roads-related post so the tolerance for politics is lower

(emphasis mine)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 20, 2020, 04:12:53 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 02:38:16 PM
The numbers in Kansas are so unbelievably noisy it is hard to get an accurate picture of trends.  Because we had our first confirmed cases late and locked down early, the daily death numbers are small and lumpy (what statisticians call a "small-numbers problem").  With nursing home and meatpacking plant outbreaks in the picture, the underlying mortality rate fluctuates in time since the virus varies in how it samples the age structure (care home residents are mostly older with comorbidities while meatpackers are young). 

Our good friends were in Meade County a couple of weeks ago, visiting friends.  He said it was really weird what a difference there was from just one county away.

Ford County, which is only #17 in population, has had the highest number of cases in the state.  (Finney County, #11 by population, is now in second place.)  Yet, just one county away, there's almost nothing.  Current numbers are 1403 compared to only 22.

Both Ford and Finney counties are home to huge meat-packing plants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 04:44:36 PM
Finally got my Virus check yesterday.  I ended up spending about $1,000 dollars on a new mountain bike and parts.  I'll be field testing it out on Blackrock Road in Sierra National Forest come Sunday it seems.  I haven't had to use my bike rack in forever so that will be interesting getting that thing dusted off again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 20, 2020, 04:53:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 04:44:36 PM
Finally got my Virus check yesterday.  I ended up spending about $1,000 dollars on a new mountain bike and parts.  I'll be field testing it out on Blackrock Road in Sierra National Forest come Sunday it seems.  I haven't had to use my bike rack in forever so that will be interesting getting that thing dusted off again.
Virus check as a nasal swab or blood test?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 20, 2020, 05:01:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 20, 2020, 04:53:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 04:44:36 PM
Finally got my Virus check yesterday.  I ended up spending about $1,000 dollars on a new mountain bike and parts.  I’ll be field testing it out on Blackrock Road in Sierra National Forest come Sunday it seems.  I haven’t had to use my bike rack in forever so that will be interesting getting that thing dusted off again.
Virus check as a nasal swab or blood test?

Stimulus check.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 20, 2020, 05:08:04 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 20, 2020, 05:01:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 20, 2020, 04:53:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 04:44:36 PM
Finally got my Virus check yesterday.  I ended up spending about $1,000 dollars on a new mountain bike and parts.  I'll be field testing it out on Blackrock Road in Sierra National Forest come Sunday it seems.  I haven't had to use my bike rack in forever so that will be interesting getting that thing dusted off again.
Virus check as a nasal swab or blood test?

Stimulus check.
:awesomeface:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 05:22:38 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 20, 2020, 05:01:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 20, 2020, 04:53:41 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 04:44:36 PM
Finally got my Virus check yesterday.  I ended up spending about $1,000 dollars on a new mountain bike and parts.  I'll be field testing it out on Blackrock Road in Sierra National Forest come Sunday it seems.  I haven't had to use my bike rack in forever so that will be interesting getting that thing dusted off again.
Virus check as a nasal swab or blood test?

Stimulus check.

There would be no stimulus without a certain virus, hence " Virus Check."   I'm torn on whether there should be a second check.  While the extra money would be nice, I can't help but wonder when inflation starts kicking in. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 20, 2020, 05:43:27 PM
My employer is requiring all of their employees to take a covid nasal swab test before being allowed to return to work prior to opening. They are administering the tests themselves through their medical division, and will not accept tests other than those they administer.

I got mine today. It definitely wasn't comfortable, but it was bearable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 20, 2020, 07:44:49 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 20, 2020, 05:43:27 PM
My employer is requiring all of their employees to take a covid nasal swab test before being allowed to return to work prior to opening. They are administering the tests themselves through their medical division, and will not accept tests other than those they administer.

Which means kickbacks for the testing company they're using, I presume. Seems odd that they wouldn't accept a test from any certified provider.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 20, 2020, 07:53:20 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 20, 2020, 03:00:16 PMYou can say "Governor X is mandating that Y shuts down or reopens".  You cannot say "Governor X sucks donkey balls for his closure/reopen strategy".

As long as that applies to all governors, fair enough.




Georgia's numbers have looked pretty promising for the last few weeks, but there have been repeated questions about test reporting lately. The Columbus Ledger-Enquirer reports (https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/coronavirus/article242831786.html) that the Department of Public Health is now reporting "regular" tests and antibody tests together without differentiating them, which may be a possible explanation for the recent dramatic increase in reported testing volume.

That certainly makes me wonder how much I can actually trust the data. Still, if we assume it to be generally accurate, Georgia would fall into the "wait and see" category from earlier. Still no changes for me – my employer hasn't given a timetable for a return to the office and has said there'll be at least a month of advance warning before it happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 20, 2020, 08:00:52 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 20, 2020, 07:53:20 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 20, 2020, 03:00:16 PMYou can say "Governor X is mandating that Y shuts down or reopens".  You cannot say "Governor X sucks donkey balls for his closure/reopen strategy".

As long as that applies to all governors, fair enough.




Georgia's numbers have looked pretty promising for the last few weeks, but there have been repeated questions about test reporting lately. The Columbus Ledger-Enquirer reports (https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/coronavirus/article242831786.html) that the Department of Public Health is now reporting "regular" tests and antibody tests together without differentiating them, which may be a possible explanation for the recent dramatic increase in reported testing volume.

I keep hearing this about Virginia. Cases in Virginia have dropped like they have in most states, but all these websites keep saying it's a hoax, and that it's a conspiracy to try to justify reopening the beaches.

I used to read these sites for serious news. Now they're a joke. They profit off of panic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 10:50:15 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 05:22:38 PM
I'm torn on whether there should be a second check.  While the extra money would be nice, I can't help but wonder when inflation starts kicking in. 

I'm no economist, but I didn't realize inflation could "kick in".  Isn't it a matter of degrees?  That is, inflation happens with one stimulus check, then happens even more with a second one.  Right?  Wrong?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 11:10:44 AM
Florida under some heat for firing of scientist.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/19/858977838/florida-fires-a-scientist-for-her-refusal-to-manipulate-states-coronavirus-data
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 21, 2020, 11:11:14 AM
Brazil will soon overtake the USA in weekly confirmed cases even as the USA is testing 11X more per capita.  The president of Brazil has continually downplayed the virus even as his country is getting consumed by it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 11:46:25 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 11:10:44 AM
Florida under some heat for firing of scientist.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/19/858977838/florida-fires-a-scientist-for-her-refusal-to-manipulate-states-coronavirus-data

Apparently there's more to the story:
https://wjno.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2020-05-21-desantis-fired-state-employee-is-not-a-scientist-faces-criminal-charges/

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/20/desantis-reveals-harassment-charge-against-fired-data-manager-but-questions-remain/

And she's not a scientist, not even the architect of the state's dashboard (from Tuesday).
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/19/florida-health-department-officials-told-manager-to-delete-coronavirus-data-before-reassigning-her-emails-show/

It's an interesting mess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 11:50:50 AM
Found this one rather interesting regarding asymptomatic transmission:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

QuoteBut the researchers didn't actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: "They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms."  Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)

However,

QuoteThe German cluster does reveal another interesting aspect about the new virus, Drosten says. So far most attention has gone to patients who get seriously ill, but all four cases in Germany had a very mild infection. That may be true for many more patients, Drosten says, which may help the virus spread. "There is increasingly the sense that patients may just experience mild cold symptoms, while already shedding the virus,"  he says. "Those are not symptoms that lead people to stay at home."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 12:03:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 11:46:25 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 11:10:44 AM
Florida under some heat for firing of scientist.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/19/858977838/florida-fires-a-scientist-for-her-refusal-to-manipulate-states-coronavirus-data

Apparently there's more to the story:
https://wjno.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2020-05-21-desantis-fired-state-employee-is-not-a-scientist-faces-criminal-charges/

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/20/desantis-reveals-harassment-charge-against-fired-data-manager-but-questions-remain/

And she's not a scientist, not even the architect of the state's dashboard (from Tuesday).
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/19/florida-health-department-officials-told-manager-to-delete-coronavirus-data-before-reassigning-her-emails-show/

It's an interesting mess.
It's so confusing, as it's hard to tell who's wrong and who's right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 12:14:18 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 10:50:15 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 05:22:38 PM
I'm torn on whether there should be a second check.  While the extra money would be nice, I can't help but wonder when inflation starts kicking in. 

I'm no economist, but I didn't realize inflation could "kick in".  Isn't it a matter of degrees?  That is, inflation happens with one stimulus check, then happens even more with a second one.  Right?  Wrong?

I think that a better way to describe it would be; printing money to boost the economy has a poor track record of causing inflation.  One stimulus might not be enough to cause a noticeable effect, but what about a second?...third?...fourth?  For awhile there was some legislators in the Federal Government pushing for a $2,000 dollar a month stimulus.  Granted, even if a second stimulus ended up being approved I can't fathom a third would be. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on May 21, 2020, 12:17:08 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 12:03:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 11:46:25 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 11:10:44 AM
Florida under some heat for firing of scientist.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/19/858977838/florida-fires-a-scientist-for-her-refusal-to-manipulate-states-coronavirus-data

Apparently there's more to the story:
https://wjno.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2020-05-21-desantis-fired-state-employee-is-not-a-scientist-faces-criminal-charges/

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/20/desantis-reveals-harassment-charge-against-fired-data-manager-but-questions-remain/

And she's not a scientist, not even the architect of the state's dashboard (from Tuesday).
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/19/florida-health-department-officials-told-manager-to-delete-coronavirus-data-before-reassigning-her-emails-show/

It's an interesting mess.
It's so confusing, as it's hard to tell who's wrong and who's right.

Sadly it's getting harder and harder to trust NPR when they take out an agenda against those asking them to be self-sufficient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 21, 2020, 12:26:13 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 10:50:15 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 05:22:38 PMI'm torn on whether there should be a second check.  While the extra money would be nice, I can't help but wonder when inflation starts kicking in.

I'm no economist, but I didn't realize inflation could "kick in".  Isn't it a matter of degrees?  That is, inflation happens with one stimulus check, then happens even more with a second one.  Right?  Wrong?

We are not anywhere near inflation taking hold because we are undergoing a demand shock.  The supply chain has largely held up, so goods and services are still available, but people are buying less of them partly because of stay-at-home orders and partly because they are worried about continuity of employment.  We are already seeing business failures and that, too, has a deflationary impact.

When you have many dollars chasing few goods and services, that sets the stage for inflation.  If it gets bad enough that consumers and firms intentionally schedule their spending to maximize the purchasing power of the dollars they have in hand, that sets up the feedback loop that underlies hyperinflation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 12:43:17 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 21, 2020, 12:26:13 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 10:50:15 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 20, 2020, 05:22:38 PMI’m torn on whether there should be a second check.  While the extra money would be nice, I can’t help but wonder when inflation starts kicking in.

I'm no economist, but I didn't realize inflation could "kick in".  Isn't it a matter of degrees?  That is, inflation happens with one stimulus check, then happens even more with a second one.  Right?  Wrong?

We are not anywhere near inflation taking hold because we are undergoing a demand shock.  The supply chain has largely held up, so goods and services are still available, but people are buying less of them partly because of stay-at-home orders and partly because they are worried about continuity of employment.  We are already seeing business failures and that, too, has a deflationary impact.

When you have many dollars chasing few goods and services, that sets the stage for inflation.  If it gets bad enough that consumers and firms intentionally schedule their spending to maximize the purchasing power of the dollars they have in hand, that sets up the feedback loop that underlies hyperinflation.

However, one can have monetary inflation without the demand shock.  We went through it in the 1970s: stagflation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).  Is it likely?  Probably not this time.  It might follow more like the Great Depression and New Deal instead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 21, 2020, 01:19:27 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 12:43:17 PMHowever, one can have monetary inflation without the demand shock.  We went through it in the 1970s: stagflation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).  Is it likely?  Probably not this time.  It might follow more like the Great Depression and New Deal instead.

Stagflation is certainly a theoretical possibility, but I don't think we will see it arise (if it does at all) in the same way as the 1970's.  Unions are weaker now than they were back then, so their ability to enforce wage demands is correspondingly reduced.  And instead of oil prices spiking, we have the bottom falling out of the oil market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Sweden experient turning out not so good.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC

So compared to their Nordic neighbors, they kept their economy more open, yet have a higher death rate and their economy is no better off. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 03:36:38 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Sweden experient turning out not so good.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC

So compared to their Nordic neighbors, they kept their economy more open, yet have a higher death rate and their economy is no better off. 

The article cited doesn't actually talk about the economy at all.  However, other articles I've read tend to indicate that Sweden's economy will indeed suffer, just a little bit less than other countries'.

The article does include an anecdote about a nursing home resident dying of the virus after untested patients were admitted, with the author referring to it as "a failure to protect the old and infirm in a country famed for its welfare state".  Well, let's not forget that it was the state policy of New York to require nursing homes to accept patients with the virus, clear up until just a couple of weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:41:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 03:36:38 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Sweden experient turning out not so good.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC

So compared to their Nordic neighbors, they kept their economy more open, yet have a higher death rate and their economy is no better off. 

The article cited doesn't actually talk about the economy at all.  However, other articles I've read tend to indicate that Sweden's economy will indeed suffer, just a little bit less than other countries'.

The article does include an anecdote about a nursing home resident dying of the virus after untested patients were admitted, with the author referring to it as "a failure to protect the old and infirm in a country famed for its welfare state".  Well, let's not forget that it was the state policy of New York to require nursing homes to accept patients with the virus, clear up until just a couple of weeks ago.


I never claimed it talked about the economy.  Others have such as this.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-economy-likely-wont-benefit-from-decision-avoid-lockdown-report-2020-5

And not sure what New York has to do with anything.  I guess just something to distract from those of you who suggested that the Swedish model was the one to follow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 03:44:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:41:25 PM
And not sure what New York has to do with anything.  I guess just something to distract from those of you who suggested that the Swedish model was the one to follow.

It had about as much to do with anything as putting the anecdote in the article to begin with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:45:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 03:44:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:41:25 PM
And not sure what New York has to do with anything.  I guess just something to distract from those of you who suggested that the Swedish model was the one to follow.

It had about as much to do with anything as putting the anecdote in the article to begin with.


Take it up with the author then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 03:51:06 PM
OK, so I wasn't supposed to share my opinion of the article on here?  Why did you post it on a forum, then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 03:58:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 10:50:15 AM
I'm no economist, but I didn't realize inflation could "kick in".  Isn't it a matter of degrees?  That is, inflation happens with one stimulus check, then happens even more with a second one.  Right?  Wrong?

Me either... and I guess that's what I thought, too.

I also thought inflation was a cause of a recession, not an effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 21, 2020, 04:54:41 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 20, 2020, 07:44:49 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 20, 2020, 05:43:27 PM
My employer is requiring all of their employees to take a covid nasal swab test before being allowed to return to work prior to opening. They are administering the tests themselves through their medical division, and will not accept tests other than those they administer.

Which means kickbacks for the testing company they're using, I presume. Seems odd that they wouldn't accept a test from any certified provider.

My employer is a tribal government. They're doing the testing in-house through their Division of Health. I was tested in the parking lot of a clinic normally only accessible to tribal citizens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 05:29:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 03:51:06 PM
OK, so I wasn't supposed to share my opinion of the article on here?  Why did you post it on a forum, then?

I posted it on the forum to show that those who thought the Sweden approach was valid, is proving to be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 06:15:29 PM
A fraud ring from Nigeria has managed to steal "hundreds of millions" out of Washington's unemployment system because we don't have two-factor authentication or other forms of verification beyond the ever insecure SSN system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-adds-more-than-145000-weekly-jobless-claims-as-coronavirus-crisis-lingers/

We need a national ID program like most other developed countries that is secure and harder to crack. But of course the obstructionists don't like the idea of following in the lead of better countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 06:44:38 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 06:15:29 PM
A fraud ring from Nigeria has managed to steal "hundreds of millions" out of Washington's unemployment system because we don't have two-factor authentication or other forms of verification beyond the ever insecure SSN system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-adds-more-than-145000-weekly-jobless-claims-as-coronavirus-crisis-lingers/

We need a national ID program like most other developed countries that is secure and harder to crack. But of course the obstructionists don't like the idea of following in the lead of better countries.
Agreed, don't know why the US doesn't have national ID's. We have driver's licences and other stuff like that, but it's not good enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 07:08:24 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 06:44:38 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 06:15:29 PM
A fraud ring from Nigeria has managed to steal "hundreds of millions" out of Washington's unemployment system because we don't have two-factor authentication or other forms of verification beyond the ever insecure SSN system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-adds-more-than-145000-weekly-jobless-claims-as-coronavirus-crisis-lingers/

We need a national ID program like most other developed countries that is secure and harder to crack. But of course the obstructionists don't like the idea of following in the lead of better countries.
Agreed, don't know why the US doesn't have national ID's. We have driver's licences and other stuff like that, but it's not good enough.

There is kind of a couple forms of that for Department of Defense employees in the form of CAC cards.  CAC cards even have chip reader security features which are a huge step up from MDOT state IDs.  They are an acceptable form of identification in most situations akin to how a Driver's License is.  A passport similarly is pretty much universally accepted as an common form of identification. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 07:09:17 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 07:08:24 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 06:44:38 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 06:15:29 PM
A fraud ring from Nigeria has managed to steal "hundreds of millions" out of Washington's unemployment system because we don't have two-factor authentication or other forms of verification beyond the ever insecure SSN system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-adds-more-than-145000-weekly-jobless-claims-as-coronavirus-crisis-lingers/

We need a national ID program like most other developed countries that is secure and harder to crack. But of course the obstructionists don't like the idea of following in the lead of better countries.
Agreed, don't know why the US doesn't have national ID's. We have driver's licences and other stuff like that, but it's not good enough.

There is kind of a couple forms of that for Department of Defense employees in the form of CAC cards.  They are an acceptable form of identification in most situations akin to how a Driver's License is.  A passport similarly is pretty much universally accepted as an common form of identification.
But most Americans don't have a passport.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 07:18:13 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 06:15:29 PM
A fraud ring from Nigeria has managed to steal "hundreds of millions" out of Washington's unemployment system because we don't have two-factor authentication or other forms of verification beyond the ever insecure SSN system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-adds-more-than-145000-weekly-jobless-claims-as-coronavirus-crisis-lingers/

We need a national ID program like most other developed countries that is secure and harder to crack. But of course the obstructionists don't like the idea of following in the lead of better countries.

We don't need a national ID for things like this.  Washington screwed up by using the SSNs in the first place.  One can make an effective system with passwords and unique PINs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 07:20:44 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 07:18:13 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 06:15:29 PM
A fraud ring from Nigeria has managed to steal "hundreds of millions" out of Washington's unemployment system because we don't have two-factor authentication or other forms of verification beyond the ever insecure SSN system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-adds-more-than-145000-weekly-jobless-claims-as-coronavirus-crisis-lingers/

We need a national ID program like most other developed countries that is secure and harder to crack. But of course the obstructionists don't like the idea of following in the lead of better countries.

We don't need a national ID for things like this.  Washington screwed up by using the SSNs in the first place.  One can make an effective system with passwords and unique PINs.

That's exactly how we have it set up, but SSNs are the main form of verification.

A proper national ID system is the exact solution to this kind of situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 21, 2020, 08:23:29 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 07:20:44 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 21, 2020, 07:18:13 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 21, 2020, 06:15:29 PM
A fraud ring from Nigeria has managed to steal "hundreds of millions" out of Washington's unemployment system because we don't have two-factor authentication or other forms of verification beyond the ever insecure SSN system.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-adds-more-than-145000-weekly-jobless-claims-as-coronavirus-crisis-lingers/

We need a national ID program like most other developed countries that is secure and harder to crack. But of course the obstructionists don't like the idea of following in the lead of better countries.

We don't need a national ID for things like this.  Washington screwed up by using the SSNs in the first place.  One can make an effective system with passwords and unique PINs.

That's exactly how we have it set up, but SSNs are the main form of verification.

A proper national ID system is the exact solution to this kind of situation.

Is it the only solution?

Anyone know, or has an intelligent guess, why Washington states's unemployment system, rather than some other state's, was targeted? A dozen other states are larger, and some are much larger. If their systems were similarly vulnerable, the Nigerians might've targeted them (maybe they did, but the other states haven't yet noticed), since their fraud would be less noticeable. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 21, 2020, 08:50:56 PM
As someone who is currently using Washington State's unemployment system ("self-employed" Uber driver while I'm in school), I think part of it might be that it has never experienced this level of demand. Washington was not hit nearly as hard (http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2012/06/22/Great-Recession-Hurt-Some-States-More-Than-Others) by the Great Recession as many other states, and I don't know how much investment there has been post-recession in a more fool-proof unemployment payout system.

As an example, judging by how badly the state fared during the Great Recession, and how many people were likely on unemployment, California probably has a very well structured unemployment system. Simply because it has dealt with this level of craziness before.

On national ID's: this shouldn't even be a discussion. The fact that we don't have them is downright insane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on May 21, 2020, 09:59:28 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 21, 2020, 08:50:56 PM
On national ID's: this shouldn't even be a discussion. The fact that we don't have them is downright insane.

We don't have national IDs because that sort of thing has generally been reserved to the states. Any attempt to implement them would be quickly criticized as federal overreach.

As such, SSNs were never intended to be used as a national identification number.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
You (and me to a lesser extent) live close to Canada. People from Kansas and Missouri don't live near any other country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 21, 2020, 10:33:32 PM
Dine-in restaurants open tomorrow at 50% of capacity in the county I live in.

My county hasn't had a new case in over a month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 10:35:03 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
You (and me to a lesser extent) live close to Canada. People from Kansas and Missouri don't live near any other country.

I always think it's weird when someone tells me that they haven't been outside of California or only to a handful of states.  The number of people who travel a long distance, especially regularly is actually pretty slim.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:37:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 10:35:03 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
You (and me to a lesser extent) live close to Canada. People from Kansas and Missouri don't live near any other country.

I always think it's weird when someone tells me that they haven't been outside of California or only to a handful of states.  The number of people who travel a long distance, especially regularly is actually pretty slim.
I like traveling, and I've traveled extensively in the Northeast, but I've only left the Northeast a couple of times. I've taken a few trips to Canada, one to Florida, a couple to Charlotte, and one to Hawaii.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 21, 2020, 10:58:58 PM
Quote from: US 89 on May 21, 2020, 09:59:28 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 21, 2020, 08:50:56 PM
On national ID's: this shouldn't even be a discussion. The fact that we don't have them is downright insane.

We don't have national IDs because that sort of thing has generally been reserved to the states. Any attempt to implement them would be quickly criticized as federal overreach.

As such, SSNs were never intended to be used as a national identification number.

Maybe we don't need to go straight to national ID's, but some form of compulsory identification at the state level would go a long ways too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 21, 2020, 11:06:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 21, 2020, 03:36:38 PM
The article does include an anecdote about a nursing home resident dying of the virus after untested patients were admitted, with the author referring to it as "a failure to protect the old and infirm in a country famed for its welfare state".  Well, let's not forget that it was the state policy of New York to require nursing homes to accept patients with the virus, clear up until just a couple of weeks ago.

Pennsylvania did a similar thing, with the result that 69% of covid deaths in the state have occurred in nursing homes. It has become a real scandal here. Since it was learned that the state Secretary of Health pulled her mother out of a nursing home and placed her in a luxury hotel two days before issuing the order forcing nursing homes to accept covid patients, there have been substantial calls for her resignation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 21, 2020, 11:09:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
You (and me to a lesser extent) live close to Canada. People from Kansas and Missouri don't live near any other country.

Another country is only an airplane flight away.

Another reason is the size of our country. The US is unusually large. The average European country is the size of PA.  Massachusetts is the 6th smallest state in the US, yet there's 15 countries smaller than Massachusetts in Europe!  Since you can travel so freely around the US, a passport isn't necessary. No so in many other countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 11:13:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:37:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 10:35:03 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
You (and me to a lesser extent) live close to Canada. People from Kansas and Missouri don't live near any other country.

I always think it's weird when someone tells me that they haven't been outside of California or only to a handful of states.  The number of people who travel a long distance, especially regularly is actually pretty slim.
I like traveling, and I've traveled extensively in the Northeast, but I've only left the Northeast a couple of times. I've taken a few trips to Canada, one to Florida, a couple to Charlotte, and one to Hawaii.

You'll be surprised how many people really don't have much travel experience.  I recall flying out of Phoenix one time to Houston with one of my investigators.  We traveled pretty extensively in Arizona, California, Nevada, and New Mexico but I noticed he was extremely nervous.  Apparently it was first time flying (he was 31 at the time) and I come to find out that he had never been outside of the Los Angeles Area before he started.  Another one of my investigators in Orlando was from Palm Beach Counties.  Apparently she had lived in Florida her entire life and had never been north of Daytona.  Those are some pretty extreme examples of lack of mobility, but I think in the road world we tend to over estimate how much the average person travels in their life time. 

In my case, my brother is the only person I am aware of in my immediate family who has a passport.  My Dad was the only other person I know of in my family who traveled anywhere close to the level that me and my brother do.  I have an Uncle who is so mortally terrified of freeway traffic that he won't travel outside of the Tri-State area unless it is by a form of mass transit.  My Wife's family has far more passports, but that largely induced by family trips to Jalisco. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 11:41:24 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 11:13:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:37:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 10:35:03 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
You (and me to a lesser extent) live close to Canada. People from Kansas and Missouri don't live near any other country.

I always think it's weird when someone tells me that they haven't been outside of California or only to a handful of states.  The number of people who travel a long distance, especially regularly is actually pretty slim.
I like traveling, and I've traveled extensively in the Northeast, but I've only left the Northeast a couple of times. I've taken a few trips to Canada, one to Florida, a couple to Charlotte, and one to Hawaii.

You'll be surprised how many people really don't have much travel experience.  I recall flying out of Phoenix one time to Houston with one of my investigators.  We traveled pretty extensively in Arizona, California, Nevada, and New Mexico but I noticed he was extremely nervous.  Apparently it was first time flying (he was 31 at the time) and I come to find out that he had never been outside of the Los Angeles Area before he started.  Another one of my investigators in Orlando was from Palm Beach Counties.  Apparently she had lived in Florida her entire life and had never been north of Daytona.  Those are some pretty extreme examples of lack of mobility, but I think in the road world we tend to over estimate how much the average person travels in their life time. 

In my case, my brother is the only person I am aware of in my immediate family who has a passport.  My Dad was the only other person I know of in my family who traveled anywhere close to the level that me and my brother do.  I have an Uncle who is so mortally terrified of freeway traffic that he won't travel outside of the Tri-State area unless it is by a form of mass transit.  My Wife's family has far more passports, but that largely induced by family trips to Jalisco.
Never leaving the LA area in 30 years? I would get stir crazy!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 22, 2020, 07:55:41 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 11:41:24 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 11:13:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:37:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 10:35:03 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 21, 2020, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.
You (and me to a lesser extent) live close to Canada. People from Kansas and Missouri don't live near any other country.

I always think it's weird when someone tells me that they haven't been outside of California or only to a handful of states.  The number of people who travel a long distance, especially regularly is actually pretty slim.
I like traveling, and I've traveled extensively in the Northeast, but I've only left the Northeast a couple of times. I've taken a few trips to Canada, one to Florida, a couple to Charlotte, and one to Hawaii.

You'll be surprised how many people really don't have much travel experience.  I recall flying out of Phoenix one time to Houston with one of my investigators.  We traveled pretty extensively in Arizona, California, Nevada, and New Mexico but I noticed he was extremely nervous.  Apparently it was first time flying (he was 31 at the time) and I come to find out that he had never been outside of the Los Angeles Area before he started.  Another one of my investigators in Orlando was from Palm Beach Counties.  Apparently she had lived in Florida her entire life and had never been north of Daytona.  Those are some pretty extreme examples of lack of mobility, but I think in the road world we tend to over estimate how much the average person travels in their life time. 

In my case, my brother is the only person I am aware of in my immediate family who has a passport.  My Dad was the only other person I know of in my family who traveled anywhere close to the level that me and my brother do.  I have an Uncle who is so mortally terrified of freeway traffic that he won't travel outside of the Tri-State area unless it is by a form of mass transit.  My Wife's family has far more passports, but that largely induced by family trips to Jalisco.
Never leaving the LA area in 30 years? I would get stir crazy!

There are a lot of folks who never leave their respective areas.  Here, near Chicago, there are a lot of people who never venture beyond the Tri-State Tollway.  In fact, when Katrina hit, and New Orleans had to be evacuated, a number of people there had never even left Orleans Parish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 22, 2020, 07:58:42 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 10:19:20 PM
It has always seemed incredibly weird to me that many US citizens don't have a passport.

Because they cost money.  If you have no plans of foreign travel, why spend it?

Despite being less than 20 miles from the Canadian border, we simply didn't go to Canada for a number of years after the 9/11 border restrictions.  It was only when we planned a Canadian vacation a few years ago that we got them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 22, 2020, 08:26:44 AM
Growing up in southern Wisconsin in the 70s and 80s, I didn't go west of the Mississippi River until my 20s (outside of switching planes once in St. Louis).  Never north of the US-10  corridor between Stevens Point and Appleton.  Never south of the I-80 corridor except for a high school trip to Washington DC.  I went to New England regularly because my grandparents lived there.  But even though we flew into LaGuardia, we never went to Manhattan and I think only twice left the state of Connecticut.

I think I was in my mid teens before I slept in any other state but Wisconsin and Connecticut.

I don't recall my friends travelling much either so I never felt I missed out on anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 22, 2020, 09:14:08 AM
Fresno's emergency order is being lifted on Tuesday (I suspect Sequoia/Kings Canyon will open that day also) and the City/County will be moving into the so called "Phase 2.5."    Apparently that will mean that dine in restaurants can reopen service if so desired.  My friend's business is planning on starting dine-in and we'll probably go at the first real opportunity on a day off. 

I'm to understand my local gym is ready to reopen too but won't be able to until the State moves to Phase 3.  I'll probably be spending some time picking up more weight sets after the reopening just in case things get nutty with lockdowns in the fall. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 22, 2020, 11:52:01 AM
The 7-day moving average in percentage positive tests is now below 6% nationally.  Testing has definitely been ramped up with over 400k tests being performed per day and 13 million total tests reported.

(https://i.imgur.com/6GlSbsn.png)
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 22, 2020, 12:32:35 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 22, 2020, 09:14:08 AMI'm to understand my local gym is ready to reopen too but won't be able to until the State moves to Phase 3.  I'll probably be spending some time picking up more weight sets after the reopening just in case things get nutty with lockdowns in the fall.

Mine reopened last Monday, but with significant restrictions.  Owing to daily counts of new confirmed cases being still too high in Kansas, our governor opted to transition to something called Phase 1.5 instead of Phase 2.  For gyms the differences between the two include a requirement that locker rooms stay shut.  My gym has announced that floor staff is now required to wear masks, and members are strongly encouraged to do the same.  Social distancing also has to be observed, and the publicity includes reproductions of the signs that will be placed on certain pieces of equipment to take them out of use.  Members are also expected to sanitize everything they use once they finish.  Issue of towels at the front desk has been discontinued--you bring your own.  We used to check in by entering our member codes (basically registered phone number plus a sequence number that is different for each member of the household) on keypads; before the COVID-19 crisis started, we also gained the ability to check in through an app, and that is now the only option since the keypads (being contact surfaces) have been withdrawn.  Opening times have been reduced (IIRC, by two hours on both ends of each day) to allow enhanced cleaning and sanitizing.

It has been five days and I have not been to the gym even once.  I am planning to go this afternoon, but strictly for reconnaissance:  I want to get an idea of how unhandy things will be with social distancing requirements.  I don't fancy going to and from the gym in my workout clothes because I wear shorts and my car has leather seats, but if the locker rooms are going to be shut for a while, I can work out some alternatives.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 21, 2020, 10:35:03 PMI always think it's weird when someone tells me that they haven't been outside of California or only to a handful of states.  The number of people who travel a long distance, especially regularly is actually pretty slim.

There was a Livable/Ipsos poll done a few years ago (2016/2017) that found the average number of states visited by an American was 12.

I have known people who have visited 40 or more states without being members of the road enthusiast community, but they have tended to have reasons for travel that led to purposive accumulation of states visited.  For example, our family friends include a retired couple that are currently working on clinching state capitols and Merci trains (48 railway carriages, one for each of the then US states, loaded with gifts and given by the French people to the US to express gratitude for their liberation during World War II).  And one of my mother's old college friends has a campervan and is pretty systematically working through national parks and national historical sites in the US.  Before the coronavirus pandemic hit, she and several siblings were also planning to fly to France for a belated 75th anniversary tour of the Normandy battlefields.

I have friends who have never made the connection between travel and personal enrichment:  to them "going somewhere" means several hours of tedium in a car or plane to see friends or relatives who live out of town.  And I have other friends for whom travel seems to trigger anxiety because it means adding geographical distance between themselves and their support networks at home.

As for passports, currently about 42% of Americans have them.  The percentage was about 10% as recently as 1990, but WHTI (brought in as a result of 9/11) has really pushed it up--it reached 27% in 2007, the year photo ID with citizenship proof became obligatory.  Cheaper air travel and relaxation of visa restrictions have also had weaker stimulative effects.  In my family, we obtained our first passports in 1985 and have been chaining DS-86 renewals continuously since 1997.

Quote from: webny99 on May 21, 2020, 03:58:59 PMI also thought inflation was a cause of a recession, not an effect.

It can be, but the two are separate and not necessarily related.  Recession is basically a sustained fall in GDP, while inflation is a rise in the general price level.  Cost-push inflation (https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1128/economics/is-inflation-causing-recession/) (arising from spikes in prices for economic inputs like oil, for example) is one example of a scenario that can trigger a recession.

Quote from: kphoger on May 20, 2020, 04:12:53 PMOur good friends were in Meade County a couple of weeks ago, visiting friends.  He said it was really weird what a difference there was from just one county away.

Ford County, which is only #17 in population, has had the highest number of cases in the state.  (Finney County, #11 by population, is now in second place.)  Yet, just one county away, there's almost nothing.  Current numbers are 1403 compared to only 22.

Both Ford and Finney counties are home to huge meat-packing plants.

Besides Ford (Dodge City) and Finney (Garden City), Seward County (Liberal) has been a COVID-19 hotspot, to the extent that its community hospital has actually handled more cases (https://www.kansas.com/news/local/article242793006.html) (some of them from Oklahoma and Texas) than Ascension Via Christi in Wichita.

A while ago I saw a heat map showing COVID-19 hotspots at the county level.  It accompanied an article discussing how state-level curves can obscure late peaking at the local level.  Blue meant cool, while red meant hot, and for Kansas those three counties were red-hot while the rest of the state was varying shades of ice-blue.

Since the meatpackers are considered critical to the protein supply for the US as a whole, Kansas has received tests from the federal government that can be used only in the counties where they are located.  This decouples them from the statewide test pool to a certain extent and thus further complicates trend analysis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 22, 2020, 12:38:44 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 22, 2020, 12:32:35 PM
As for passports, currently about 42% of Americans have them.  The percentage was about 10% as recently as 1990, but WHTI (brought in as a result of 9/11) has really pushed it up--it reached 27% in 2007, the year photo ID with citizenship proof became obligatory.  Cheaper air travel and relaxation of visa restrictions have also had weaker stimulative effects.  In my family, we obtained our first passports in 1985 and have been chaining DS-86 renewals continuously since 1997.

Are those under 18 counted as "no" or excluded entirely?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 12:52:25 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 22, 2020, 12:32:35 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 22, 2020, 09:14:08 AMI'm to understand my local gym is ready to reopen too but won't be able to until the State moves to Phase 3.  I'll probably be spending some time picking up more weight sets after the reopening just in case things get nutty with lockdowns in the fall.

Mine reopened last Monday, but with significant restrictions.  Owing to daily counts of new confirmed cases being still too high in Kansas, our governor opted to transition to something called Phase 1.5 instead of Phase 2.  For gyms the differences between the two include a requirement that locker rooms stay shut. 

My boss and my boss's boss are big into working out at the gym, and they sometimes go during an extended lunch break during the work day.  One of them owns a large RV and keeps it parked on the property.  Because the gym showers are out of use, he showers in the RV instead upon returning to the office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 22, 2020, 12:55:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 22, 2020, 12:38:44 PMAre those under 18 counted as "no" or excluded entirely?

The piece I rely on (https://blogs.voanews.com/all-about-america/2018/01/18/record-number-of-americans-hold-passports/) cites "Census and State Department data" (linking to State Department passport statistics (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html)) without going into detail on child passports, multiple US passports held by an individual (can be legal in some situations), etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: noelbotevera on May 22, 2020, 01:24:39 PM
As of May 22nd, I've finished school (all tests and assignments completed the week of May 10-16). Unfortunately, my county is still a hotspot for cases; lockdown orders are due to expire June 4th (extended from a statewide opening on May 8th). The borough of Chambersburg attempted to force a reopening, but the governor threatened to cut state funding - that shut up any naysayers.

As for the state, 49 counties (73%) will partially reopen by tonight. Most of the state bar Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and parts of Amish Country have opened, including Harrisburg.

Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 22, 2020, 01:37:46 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on May 22, 2020, 01:24:39 PM
Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.

A lot of places are seeing "increases" in cases merely due to more testing.  The numbers to watch are those admitted to the hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 01:38:19 PM
My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 22, 2020, 01:40:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 01:38:19 PM
My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?

Cleaning supplies?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 22, 2020, 01:52:12 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on May 22, 2020, 01:24:39 PM
As of May 22nd, I've finished school (all tests and assignments completed the week of May 10-16). Unfortunately, my county is still a hotspot for cases; lockdown orders are due to expire June 4th (extended from a statewide opening on May 8th). The borough of Chambersburg attempted to force a reopening, but the governor threatened to cut state funding - that shut up any naysayers.

As for the state, 49 counties (73%) will partially reopen by tonight. Most of the state bar Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and parts of Amish Country have opened, including Harrisburg.

Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.
Gov Wolf has hinted that more counties will go from red to yellow and some from yellow to green...stay tuned, to be announced today...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 22, 2020, 02:01:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Sweden experient turning out not so good.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC

So compared to their Nordic neighbors, they kept their economy more open, yet have a higher death rate and their economy is no better off. 

Sweden might not be as well off as their Nordic neighbors, but compared to France, the UK, Italy, Spain, Andorra, Belgium, and San Marino, they look rather good.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 02:09:53 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 22, 2020, 01:40:03 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 01:38:19 PM
My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?

Cleaning supplies?

Aw, come on, man...

Toilet paper!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 22, 2020, 03:06:33 PM
Quote from: noelbotevera on May 22, 2020, 01:24:39 PM
As of May 22nd, I've finished school (all tests and assignments completed the week of May 10-16). Unfortunately, my county is still a hotspot for cases; lockdown orders are due to expire June 4th (extended from a statewide opening on May 8th). The borough of Chambersburg attempted to force a reopening, but the governor threatened to cut state funding - that shut up any naysayers.

As for the state, 49 counties (73%) will partially reopen by tonight. Most of the state bar Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and parts of Amish Country have opened, including Harrisburg.

Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.
The spike in cases might not be related to the partial reopening; it might be tied to an increased number of tests being given.

Bars, restaurants, and retail were allowed to open (dine in) in my county and 31 others in Michigan. Most of the chain restaurants appear to be drive thru and/or takeout only (the local A&W might be open for dine-in; they kept their lobby open for takeout the entire time in part due to its location in the middle of town with a small and tight drive-thru area). Some local restaurants are open for dine-in, while at least two are remaining take-out only for now (the two I know of that are remaining take-out only have very small and cramped indoor seating areas; one of the two will allow people to buy beer to drink while they're waiting for their take-out)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 22, 2020, 04:07:07 PM
Churches are now considered "essential (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/22/coronavirus-trump-share-guidelines-churches-places-worship/5242780002/)" now..

Your neighborhood church opening vs a megachurch are two totally different things.. A church in a Springfield Suburb has at least 500-1k members in a congregation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:11:00 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 22, 2020, 04:07:07 PM
Churches are now considered "essential (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/22/coronavirus-trump-share-guidelines-churches-places-worship/5242780002/)" now..

Your neighborhood church opening vs a megachurch are two totally different things.. A church in a Springfield Suburb has at least 500-1k members in a congregation.

"Considered" by Trump, that is.  The laws haven't actually changed, as I understand it.

At least in Kansas, churches have been allowed to remain open, but only if they met a whole host of tough-to-follow guidelines.  I know a single congregation in Wichita that has already resumed services during the recent 10-person limit.  (There may be more I'm unaware of, surely.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 22, 2020, 04:15:12 PM
The church I mentioned earlier has been streaming their services long before COVID-19 was a thing. As a result, I haven't really needed to enter the building in months. Other churches have gone to meeting via ZOOM or similar software.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 22, 2020, 04:29:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.
My church has had us do communion at home, it's different but still doable (sort of).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:31:03 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 22, 2020, 04:29:02 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

My church has had us do communion at home, it's different but still doable (sort of).

That doesn't really work for denominations in which only an ordained pastor/priest can administer the sacrament.  My parents' church is one such denomination.  The pastor offers in-home communion, but it isn't really feasible to go to every single congregant's home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 22, 2020, 04:35:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

On the other hand, communion just became a whole bottle of wine Christ's blood, along with cheese and crackers wafers!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:44:25 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 22, 2020, 04:35:05 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

On the other hand, communion just became a whole bottle of wine Christ's blood Rioja, along with cheese and crackers wafers a box of Triscuits and tapenade!

Edited for accuracy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on May 22, 2020, 05:35:54 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:44:25 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 22, 2020, 04:35:05 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 04:24:19 PM
It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

On the other hand, communion just became a whole bottle of wine Christ's blood Rioja, along with cheese and crackers wafers a box of Triscuits and tapenade!

Edited for accuracy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 22, 2020, 10:41:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 02:09:53 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 22, 2020, 01:40:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 22, 2020, 01:38:19 PM
My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?
Cleaning supplies?
Aw, come on, man...
Toilet paper!

That's a cleaning supply in my book!  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: noelbotevera on May 23, 2020, 12:12:09 AM
Following Gov. Wolf's announcement today, 17 (23% of PA's counties) move into the green phase, AKA complete reopening next week. These are all in the northern part of the state, north of I-80. My county (Franklin) plus counties in the Allentown area move to yellow phase (partial reopening), with the Philadelphia area partially reopening on June 5th. Come June 5th, the entire state of PA is reopened to some extent.

Looks like my plans to go to Rochester will work out after all; I can stay in a hotel in Mansfield or Coudersport then travel up to Rochester/Buffalo/Southern Tier from there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 23, 2020, 07:50:38 AM
Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on May 23, 2020, 11:36:28 AM
Quote from: noelbotevera on May 23, 2020, 12:12:09 AM
Following Gov. Wolf's announcement today, 17 (23% of PA's counties) move into the green phase, AKA complete reopening next week. These are all in the northern part of the state, north of I-80. My county (Franklin) plus counties in the Allentown area move to yellow phase (partial reopening), with the Philadelphia area partially reopening on June 5th. Come June 5th, the entire state of PA is reopened to some extent.

Looks like my plans to go to Rochester will work out after all; I can stay in a hotel in Mansfield or Coudersport then travel up to Rochester/Buffalo/Southern Tier from there.

It would be more accurate to state that the rest of Central PA (minus Lancaster County) and the rest of northeast PA (minus Lackawanna County (Scranton)) move into yellow next week then the rest of PA on June 5th.

Anyway I am planning a road trip next weekend to get some Central PA routes I have not finished yet (at least PA 641 and PA 35 tentatively).

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on May 23, 2020, 12:22:10 PM
This morning's MIT model (https://covid19-projections.com/):

US projected mean: 184,015 (-11,691 from last week)

NY: 32,851 (-642)
NJ: 15,476 (-2,010)
IL: 15,262 (-3,733). Projecting 6,189 more deaths in Cook County (Chicago)
PA: 11,246 (-2,121). Projecting 1,969 more deaths in Philadelphia County
CA: 10,233 (+654). Projecting 3,102 more deaths in Los Angeles County
MA: 9,645 (-635)
OH: 6,885 (+1,073)
MI: 6,715 (-257)
IN: 5,953 (-788)
FL: 5,386 (-147). Projecting 721 more deaths in Miami-Dade County.
TX: 5,287 (-1,098)
CT: 5,222 (-194)
MD: 5,176 (+43)
GA: 4,796 (+639)
LA: 3,908 (+50)
AZ: 3,902 (-475)
CO: 3,561 (-208)
MN: 3,471 (-163)
VA: 3,144 (-622)
MS: 2,646 (+95)
MO: 2,378 (-94)
NC: 2,204 (-237)
IA: 2,177 (-447)
AL: 1,894 (-483)
RI: 1,471 (+123)
WA: 1,406 (-64)
SC: 1,297 (-170)
NM: 1,229 (+17)
DE: 1,034 (+25)
WI: 909 (-17)
KY: 868 (+212)
NV: 850 (-14)
DC: 800 (-181)
NH: 740 (+60)
NE: 694 (+161)
TN: 581 (+12)
OK: 471 (-56)
UT: 341 (+25)
KS: 319 (-88)
AR: 245 (-3)
ND: 227 (+4)
OR: 215 (-28)
SD: 205 (-34)
PR: 171 (-39)
WV: 128 (-34)
ME: 112 (-26)
ID: 104 (+3)
VT: 67 (-8)
WY: 31 (+12)
HI: 25 (-3)
MT: 21 (-3)
AK: 13 (-1)
Guam: 9 (-2)
Virgin Islands: 9 (-2)

Some encouraging numbers, but you gotta watch for a spike after the Memorial Day weekend. States like Alabama which have very few ICU beds could get hit really hard.

And in the counties where the outbreak is worst, it's gonna be a very long summer (like Chicago). Their model is projecting 1/4 of Cook County will get infected by this by August.

Also Brazil is really gonna get hit over the summer. Their model is projecting 164,798 deaths by August, rising to nearly 3,000 a day by then, in a nation 1/3 smaller in population than the US. They also project almost 92,000 deaths for Mexico.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: catch22 on May 23, 2020, 12:56:11 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 23, 2020, 07:50:38 AM
Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.

I really don't understand why more people don't get this ("It's the people, not the building," as a friend of mine is fond of saying).  At my church (which has no plans to reopen our building for Sunday worship any time soon, and is under no pressure from anyone to do so), we've seen an amazing increase in the amount of people participating in outreach programs of one sort or another, both with their time and their wallets.  That's what it's all about.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 01:59:09 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

No, if anything the affects of the on the world virus have been grating and annoying more than anything.  I've been exposed to at least a solid 100 plus people five days a week at work through out all this lock down stuff.  Similarly my wife is exposed to people who are homeless and otherwise destitute at one her behavioral health job in downtown Fresno.  While I maintain that I "think" that I already got sick, I can't imagine that there is anyway that I haven't been exposed numerous times by now.  I can't look at the situation at hand and really bring myself to worry about the prospect of getting sick.  I'm much more worried about long term health problems like heart issues or my family having a bad track record with getting cancer.

To that end regarding outdoor activity, I haven't strayed from it and will only continue to expand what I do now that restrictions are expanding.  Since I returned from Mexico twelve weeks ago I've run 50 miles in eleven of those weeks.  As of late I've been able to comfortably resume my usual back water hiking routines out in the mountains.  I would rather just be away from people in general even before the pandemic and nothing that is going on presently has changed my mindset towards that.  Hopefully the National Parks open soon, but for now I'm settling for much more rugged BLM and National Forest lands to spend my down time.  Either way, it's far more productive than spending my time wallowing in a city full of upset people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on May 23, 2020, 02:19:29 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

I pick #2.  As of yesterday our county of just under 50,000 residents has had 26 identified cases.  24 of those people have recovered and 2 cases are listed as still "active".  No deaths.  Even if I hit the 1:2000 lottery I think I'll come out the other side OK.  Once I returned from Florida at the very beginning of it (March 19) I haven't traveled more than 50 miles from home since this started, and I'd add my concerns might be different in a crowded city.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on May 23, 2020, 03:31:52 PM
Minnesota's governor caves to pressure and will allow churches to open at 25%. He seems to be taking a middle of the road path that no one is happy with; people on the left fee he's giving in to pressure from the right and religious communities who announced they would no longer abide by quarantine restrictions, and the right and restaurant sectors who feel he's not opening enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 04:26:59 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 23, 2020, 07:50:38 AM
Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.

Yep. Washington has had drive-thru or online church services since March (https://www.heraldnet.com/news/churches-rethink-services-in-light-of-coronavirus/). There's plenty of evidence that regular church routines (singing, close socializing, eating together) spread the virus, to deadly effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on May 23, 2020, 04:28:06 PM
I'm going with #1. I'm concerned about the second wave
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 04:28:52 PM
California apparently has started a new contact trace program:

https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/california-launches-covid-19-contact-tracing-program/

Interestingly the program is based off of responses given by someone who has tested positive as opposed to something like cell phone data.  It might not be fool proof but I would imagine asking people who they interacted with is a far more accurate means of finding out who might have been exposed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 23, 2020, 04:34:13 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.
2. I'm not super afraid, I'm just taking proper precautions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 23, 2020, 05:18:13 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?
1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

2) No.

I am not concerned that I personally will contract the virus. It appears that weather has some impact, just like the flu, so my fear will probably follow a course roughly inverse to the outside temperature and continue to do so until a vaccine is available.

I believe a second wave is likely, and when it hits it will almost certainly catch areas that didn't get hit hard the first time off guard.
But right now I'm taking this whole thing a day - an hour, even - at a time, so I couldn't spend to much time worrying about it. I'm just enjoying the mildly encouraging numbers, the gradual re-opening, and the beautiful spring weather.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 06:14:42 PM
Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
An observation I've had about the National Park closures here in Central California.  This weekend and the previous weekend I've noticed that there has been huge uptick on some really remote and kind of dicey trails.   Most of the notable trails in the National Forests are seeing much casual hiker traffic.  The Lewis Creek Trail of Sierra National Forest this weekend seems to be a huge draw given Redrock Falls is still moving fast.  The problem is with the Lewis Creek Trail is that a bridge is out and it requires hikers use a rope to cross Lewis Creek by way of a log.  That's a pretty dicey proposition even for experienced hikers much less the casual crowd that usually frequents Yosemite.  Apparently one person already drowned attempted to cross the similarly fast moving Willow Creek. 

I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend.  Apparently the only National Park I. The area that has reopened is Pinnacles by way of hiking or cycling.  Considering Pinnacles will see 105F degree temperatures this week that kind of seems silly to have them even slightly open whereas Yosemite, Sequoia, And Kings Canyon are all closed...in much cooler climates.  It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

For what it's worth I'm planning on Lewis Creek myself this next Thursday when the crowds die down.  Considering how fast I just saw the creek moving in a friend's video I don't think I'll be making an attempt over that log unless the current slows considerably. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 23, 2020, 06:55:14 PM
As for Tim's poll, I'm doing a #2. (Insert your own pun there.)

As for church services, a number of denominations practice anointing or the laying on of hands during prayers. And there is a Bible verse regarding not forsaking assembly. So they most assuredly cannot fulfill the same worship obligations doing an online service.

A number of court cases are being won by plaintiffs suing to overturn government orders closing churches to in-person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on May 23, 2020, 07:19:45 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 07:30:28 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 23, 2020, 07:19:45 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.

I noticed a huge surge in Sierra National Forest on the Stevenson Creek Trail.  There is no way that trail would have been such a huge draw if Yosemite was even partially opened.  It was interesting coming back from the Falls and seeing a massive amount of cars lining up a one-lane road on a weekday.  I don't think I'm the Fresno/Central Valley Area that many are willing sacrifice their holiday weekend at this point.  It's been busy enough that my wife talked me out of cycling on the road we originally planned on Sierra National Forest since they campgrounds apparently partially reopened. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't South Lake Tahoe still have a pretty hard local restriction on recreation from outsiders?  I seem recall El Dorado County had a similar order for awhile.  I would imagine that the Nevada side has some differing interests given that there are casinos involved on the lake shore.  Comparatively speaking Fresno County never did their own order and other local counties like Madera and Tulare have largely been pretty lax. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 23, 2020, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 06:14:42 PM
Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:07:03 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 23, 2020, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 06:14:42 PM
Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.

If only people on the whole cared as much as much about things heart disease or cancer.  Not to dismiss the number of people that have died from COVID-19 but it is curious how pretty much every other cause of death is being pretty much overlooked in mainstream media...even when they are still more prevalent.  I guess that I might be jaded by the fact that I just lost an uncle suddenly of heart disease and somehow that was "routine." . 

For reference the latest statistics on heart disease deaths in the United States was 647,000 deaths annually.  If 100,000 is scary than how is 647,000 not?...am I missing something beyond it being a known quantity?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 23, 2020, 09:21:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:07:03 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 23, 2020, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 06:14:42 PM
Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.

If only people on the whole cared as much as much about things heart disease or cancer.  Not to dismiss the number of people that have died from COVID-19 but it is curious how pretty much every other cause of death is being pretty much overlooked in mainstream media...even when they are still more prevalent.  I guess that I might be jaded by the fact that I just lost an uncle suddenly of heart disease and somehow that was "routine." . 

For reference the latest statistics on heart disease deaths in the United States was 647,000 deaths annually.  If 100,000 is scary than how is 647,000 not?...am I missing something beyond it being a known quantity?

It's not a matter of exclusivity and I find the comparison less than profound.  I can't catch COPD from you, just for starters.


We've been spending millions on heart disease research already, COVID is new...

*sigh*
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:31:36 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 23, 2020, 09:21:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:07:03 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 23, 2020, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 06:14:42 PM
Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.

If only people on the whole cared as much as much about things heart disease or cancer.  Not to dismiss the number of people that have died from COVID-19 but it is curious how pretty much every other cause of death is being pretty much overlooked in mainstream media...even when they are still more prevalent.  I guess that I might be jaded by the fact that I just lost an uncle suddenly of heart disease and somehow that was "routine." . 

For reference the latest statistics on heart disease deaths in the United States was 647,000 deaths annually.  If 100,000 is scary than how is 647,000 not?...am I missing something beyond it being a known quantity?

It's not a matter of exclusivity and I find the comparison less than profound.  I can't catch COPD from you, just for starters.


We've been spending millions on heart disease research already, COVID is new...

*sigh*

But you can have heart problems or cancer and not even know it.  In some cases you might not really even have any symptoms until it is too late.  I wasn't really trying to insinuate anything was "profound,"  rather my own lack of an understand of why COVID-19 is somehow more scary for the average person.  The question of the day was "does COVID-19"  still scare you?  I think there is plenty of merit to questioning the logic behind why a disease that is less likely to kill scares more than others that are more likely to do the deed.  That isn't to say that there isn't a problem nor any of COVID-19 deaths aren't tragic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on May 23, 2020, 09:34:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 07:30:28 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 23, 2020, 07:19:45 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.

I noticed a huge surge in Sierra National Forest on the Stevenson Creek Trail.  There is no way that trail would have been such a huge draw if Yosemite was even partially opened.  It was interesting coming back from the Falls and seeing a massive amount of cars lining up a one-lane road on a weekday.  I don't think I'm the Fresno/Central Valley Area that many are willing sacrifice their holiday weekend at this point.  It's been busy enough that my wife talked me out of cycling on the road we originally planned on Sierra National Forest since they campgrounds apparently partially reopened. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't South Lake Tahoe still have a pretty hard local restriction on recreation from outsiders?  I seem recall El Dorado County had a similar order for awhile.  I would imagine that the Nevada side has some differing interests given that there are casinos involved on the lake shore.  Comparatively speaking Fresno County never did their own order and other local counties like Madera and Tulare have largely been pretty lax. 

True, there are still official restrictions on travel to Tahoe (https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article242866301.html) in El Dorado County.

QuoteNonessential travel by visitors into much of the south side of the Lake Tahoe area remains banned. The city of South Lake Tahoe announced in a news release Wednesday that property owners, such as vacation home owners, can return to the area, "but visitors are still asked not to be here at this time."

El Dorado County has also banned nonessential travel to the unincorporated Tahoe basin area indefinitely, a measure designed to limit travel-based transmission of the coronavirus following the expiration of its separate, countywide coronavirus health order. El Dorado was California's first county to let its local stay-at-home or shelter-in-place order expire, while remaining under the statewide stay-at-home mandate.

Realistically that ban isn't enforceable, short of putting up some checkpoint on US 50 and demanding to know people's reason for traveling, which might raise a legal issue or three.  The only real enforcement actions in the last two months were carried out against a few property owners who were continuing to operate their properties as vacation rentals.  We've succeeded in keeping people out by eliminating the availability of any place to stay overnight, unless you have a key to private property or are willing to do "dispersed camping" on USFS land (i.e. just pull off a road and set up without any campground-type facilities, which is perfectly legal).

The tentative date for allowing the hotel/casino properties on the Nevada side to reopen is June 4.  I suppose restrictions on the Nevada vacation rentals would be lifted at that time as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:40:46 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 23, 2020, 09:34:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 07:30:28 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 23, 2020, 07:19:45 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.

I noticed a huge surge in Sierra National Forest on the Stevenson Creek Trail.  There is no way that trail would have been such a huge draw if Yosemite was even partially opened.  It was interesting coming back from the Falls and seeing a massive amount of cars lining up a one-lane road on a weekday.  I don't think I'm the Fresno/Central Valley Area that many are willing sacrifice their holiday weekend at this point.  It's been busy enough that my wife talked me out of cycling on the road we originally planned on Sierra National Forest since they campgrounds apparently partially reopened. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't South Lake Tahoe still have a pretty hard local restriction on recreation from outsiders?  I seem recall El Dorado County had a similar order for awhile.  I would imagine that the Nevada side has some differing interests given that there are casinos involved on the lake shore.  Comparatively speaking Fresno County never did their own order and other local counties like Madera and Tulare have largely been pretty lax. 

True, there are still official restrictions on travel to Tahoe (https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article242866301.html) in El Dorado County.

QuoteNonessential travel by visitors into much of the south side of the Lake Tahoe area remains banned. The city of South Lake Tahoe announced in a news release Wednesday that property owners, such as vacation home owners, can return to the area, "but visitors are still asked not to be here at this time."

El Dorado County has also banned nonessential travel to the unincorporated Tahoe basin area indefinitely, a measure designed to limit travel-based transmission of the coronavirus following the expiration of its separate, countywide coronavirus health order. El Dorado was California's first county to let its local stay-at-home or shelter-in-place order expire, while remaining under the statewide stay-at-home mandate.

Realistically that ban isn't enforceable, short of putting up some checkpoint on US 50 and demanding to know people's reason for traveling, which might raise a legal issue or three.  The only real enforcement actions in the last two months were carried out against a few property owners who were continuing to operate their properties as vacation rentals.  We've succeeded in keeping people out by eliminating the availability of any place to stay overnight, unless you have a key to private property or are willing to do "dispersed camping" on USFS land (i.e. just pull off a road and set up without any campground-type facilities, which is perfectly legal).

The tentative date for allowing the hotel/casino properties on the Nevada side to reopen is June 4.  I suppose restrictions on the Nevada vacation rentals would be lifted at that time as well.

I would have to imagine the Nevada Side of the Lake pushing for a reopening is going to force the California side to do the same.  There isn't much that South Lake Tahoe or El Dorado County can do to stop everyone from going to Nevada (Sand Harbor sounds nice right now) especially with only 67 confirmed cases.  Granted I'm not up to par on Tahoe area politics to know if what state does really greases the wheels in the other. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 23, 2020, 09:48:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 06:14:42 PM
Sunday's New York Times front page:

They're a local New York City paper.  If anything, they should be critical of Cuomo's response whereby he put sick people in the nursing homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 23, 2020, 09:52:21 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

#2.  Use proper precautions, but don't freak out.  I'm also sick of these stupid "Alone Together"  PSAs.

As for a second wave, until there's actual evidence for one and not just conjecture, count me skeptical.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:57:35 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 23, 2020, 09:52:21 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

#2.  Use proper precautions, but don't freak out.  I'm also sick of these stupid "Alone Together"  PSAs.

As for a second wave, until there's actual evidence for one and not just conjecture, count me skeptical.

Those PSAs alone have essentially rendered TV unwatchable.  I don't recall a time when I've hit the mute button so many times during commercial breaks.  I am seriously considering trying the MRN radio broadcast of the Coca Cola 600 even just to avoid the onslaught (I noticed radio is more mellow on COVID than TV). 

Also, those PSAs tend to remind me of how far I am behind the times with tech.  I barely know how to Skype and barely even found out Face Time was a thing until late last year.  If you believe those commercials everyone is on some sort of video chat platform. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 23, 2020, 10:21:23 PM
#1. If you catch it, you might be completely asymptomatic, you might die, you might live but be fucked up for life. Being young and in shape helps, but even people my age have died from it, so there's no way to be sure what outcome you're going to have.

My workplace is a total cesspool of gross people doing gross things, and my employer has strict attendance policies that will dictate that someone who has it will show up to work and spread it around to everyone, so once we go back to "normal", there's a pretty high chance I'll catch it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 23, 2020, 11:21:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PMA quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

I pick #4:  pragmatic but cautious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 23, 2020, 11:34:16 PM
The COVID pandemic has led to volatility in the markets.  Buy in November 2022 when the DOW dips below 11k (this is not financial advice just a prediction).

(https://i.imgur.com/nrHKJgt.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 23, 2020, 11:38:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:57:35 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 23, 2020, 09:52:21 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

#2.  Use proper precautions, but don't freak out.  I'm also sick of these stupid "Alone Together"  PSAs.

As for a second wave, until there's actual evidence for one and not just conjecture, count me skeptical.

Those PSAs alone have essentially rendered TV unwatchable.  I don't recall a time when I've hit the mute button so many times during commercial breaks.  I am seriously considering trying the MRN radio broadcast of the Coca Cola 600 even just to avoid the onslaught (I noticed radio is more mellow on COVID than TV). 

Also, those PSAs tend to remind me of how far I am behind the times with tech.  I barely know how to Skype and barely even found out Face Time was a thing until late last year.  If you believe those commercials everyone is on some sort of video chat platform.
YouTube was even worse, up until about a month ago. They had those PSAs where an "influencer" (I hate that term) would literally say the same scripted garbage "Hey guys, in order to stop the spread of COVID-19, we NEED to stay home. So, stay home, and watch me (do whatever boring stuff they do)".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 11:48:43 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 23, 2020, 11:38:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 23, 2020, 09:57:35 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 23, 2020, 09:52:21 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

#2.  Use proper precautions, but don't freak out.  I'm also sick of these stupid "Alone Together"  PSAs.

As for a second wave, until there's actual evidence for one and not just conjecture, count me skeptical.

Those PSAs alone have essentially rendered TV unwatchable.  I don't recall a time when I've hit the mute button so many times during commercial breaks.  I am seriously considering trying the MRN radio broadcast of the Coca Cola 600 even just to avoid the onslaught (I noticed radio is more mellow on COVID than TV). 

Also, those PSAs tend to remind me of how far I am behind the times with tech.  I barely know how to Skype and barely even found out Face Time was a thing until late last year.  If you believe those commercials everyone is on some sort of video chat platform.
YouTube was even worse, up until about a month ago. They had those PSAs where an "influencer" (I hate that term) would literally say the same scripted garbage "Hey guys, in order to stop the spread of COVID-19, we NEED to stay home. So, stay home, and watch me (do whatever boring stuff they do)".

We must get different ads.  Almost every ad I see is for some sort of some of home improvement item or service.  But yes, seeing the likes of a Justin Bieber or Kim Kardashian attempting to tell me what to do just makes me want to do the opposite on principle. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 24, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

2

So much so that last week my wife and I, with our two over-18 kids, ate in at a nearby Italian café that defiantly opened ahead of the governor's orders for our PA County. (Businesses are starting to do that rather than go out of business.) The place was practicing social distancing, but no employees or patrons wore masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 24, 2020, 06:40:50 AM
We record all the tv shows we want to watch.  That way we aren't held captive by a schedule.  A side benefit is that we fast forward during the commercials.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on May 24, 2020, 07:51:24 AM
QuoteMy workplace is a total cesspool of gross people doing gross things, and my employer has strict attendance policies that will dictate that someone who has it will show up to work and spread it around to everyone, so once we go back to "normal", there's a pretty high chance I'll catch it.

This is my biggest concern.  I really do not understand why everyone seems to have a desire to be back around each other as quickly as possible knowing that one positive case could lead to a 14-day quarantine for everyone.  I definitely do not trust my coworkers to socially distance from each other considering how much they spoke to each other before we started working from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:17:57 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 23, 2020, 09:48:02 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 06:14:42 PM
Sunday's New York Times front page:

They're a local New York City paper.  If anything, they should be critical of Cuomo's response whereby he put sick people in the nursing homes.


You probably should do a little more research on this before you completely blame Cuomo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:22:37 AM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

2

So much so that last week my wife and I, with our two over-18 kids, ate in at a nearby Italian café that defiantly opened ahead of the governor's orders for our PA County. (Businesses are starting to do that rather than go out of business.) The place was practicing social distancing, but no employees or patrons wore masks.


Very interest to me that a group of people who usually tend to be the law and order sort, somehow cheer things like this as a good thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:27:40 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.


I'm absolutely not "afraid" of the virus.

I am understanding of the science around the virus that, while I would likely survive catching COVID, I could assymptomatically spread it to those who would have a harder time.

So I think it is part of my responsibility to society to minimize (note I didn't say eliminate) activities where I would participate in the virus' spread.  That's not fear.  That's "loving my neighbor."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on May 24, 2020, 08:47:02 AM
Quote from: GaryV on May 24, 2020, 06:40:50 AM
We record all the tv shows we want to watch.  That way we aren't held captive by a schedule.  A side benefit is that we fast forward during the commercials.

So do I.  For the same reason and with the same side benefit.   About the only shows I deliberately watch as they are being broadcast are some sports events.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 24, 2020, 08:53:48 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:27:40 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.


I'm absolutely not "afraid" of the virus.

I am understanding of the science around the virus that, while I would likely survive catching COVID, I could assymptomatically spread it to those who would have a harder time.

So I think it is part of my responsibility to society to minimize (note I didn't say eliminate) activities where I would participate in the virus' spread.  That's not fear.  That's "loving my neighbor."

THIS.

For the small subset of people who have no risk (known or unknown) **AND** are rarely around people who have no risk (known or unknown) risk, then fine...you're good to go. 

But for the rest of us, especially knowing that there is not a 100% effective way of stopping a spread.  Masks help...not 100% - excluding the fact that people don't want to wear them in obvious situations - like indoors. And washing hands helps you not get it; doesn't stop you from spreading it; my answer is #4:  not afraid, but cautious.  And especially knowing that the average person can't wait to no longer be cautions and go back to the American Way; being self-absorbed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 24, 2020, 09:06:06 AM
New Brunswick has completely eliminated the virus. 120 known cases, all recovered. No deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:17:58 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 24, 2020, 08:53:48 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:27:40 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.


I'm absolutely not "afraid" of the virus.

I am understanding of the science around the virus that, while I would likely survive catching COVID, I could assymptomatically spread it to those who would have a harder time.

So I think it is part of my responsibility to society to minimize (note I didn't say eliminate) activities where I would participate in the virus' spread.  That's not fear.  That's "loving my neighbor."

THIS.

For the small subset of people who have no risk (known or unknown) **AND** are rarely around people who have no risk (known or unknown) risk, then fine...you're good to go. 

But for the rest of us, especially knowing that there is not a 100% effective way of stopping a spread.  Masks help...not 100% - excluding the fact that people don't want to wear them in obvious situations - like indoors. And washing hands helps you not get it; doesn't stop you from spreading it; my answer is #4:  not afraid, but cautious.  And especially knowing that the average person can't wait to no longer be cautions and go back to the American Way; being self-absorbed.



That's why when I see people say things like "the staff had no masks!!!" as if it is somehow a defiant symbol of freedom, I shake my head and say WTF?

It's a simple gesture to help others.  For a society who praises the sacrifices of those in the military, or the essential workers, you would think that doing something that small wouldn't be that big of a deal.

But here we are.  Viewing it as some sort of assault on our liberties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:27:16 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 24, 2020, 09:06:06 AM
New Brunswick has completely eliminated the virus. 120 known cases, all recovered. No deaths.
Wish that could happen down here in Massachusetts, but that's likely unrealistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 24, 2020, 10:48:08 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:27:16 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 24, 2020, 09:06:06 AM
New Brunswick has completely eliminated the virus. 120 known cases, all recovered. No deaths.
Wish that could happen down here in Massachusetts, but that's likely unrealistic.

It would be great if states and provinces were vacuums, but unfortunately 0 active cases doesn't mean much when you still have an extensive network of people traveling in and out that's almost impossible to control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:51:10 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 24, 2020, 10:48:08 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:27:16 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 24, 2020, 09:06:06 AM
New Brunswick has completely eliminated the virus. 120 known cases, all recovered. No deaths.
Wish that could happen down here in Massachusetts, but that's likely unrealistic.

It would be great if states and provinces were vacuums, but unfortunately 0 active cases doesn't mean much when you still have an extensive network of people traveling in and out that's almost impossible to control.
Most states ask people to quarantine for 14 days, but not sure how strictly enforced that is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 24, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:51:10 AMMost states ask people to quarantine for 14 days, but not sure how strictly enforced that is.

I thought Alaska and Hawaii were the only states that even cared after about late April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 24, 2020, 11:43:36 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

I pick 2.

People should be cautious about covid-19, but, in the same way it should not be feared.

Personally, I believe I had it in February, so I'm not very scared of it now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 11:44:11 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 24, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:51:10 AMMost states ask people to quarantine for 14 days, but not sure how strictly enforced that is.

I thought Alaska and Hawaii were the only states that even cared after about late April.

It's mostly employers at this point that want the 14 self isolation thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 24, 2020, 12:27:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 11:44:11 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 24, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:51:10 AMMost states ask people to quarantine for 14 days, but not sure how strictly enforced that is.

I thought Alaska and Hawaii were the only states that even cared after about late April.

It's mostly employers at this point that want the 14 self isolation thing.

There's still a VMS on the border of MA/NH 125 that tells people who stay in NH to quarantine for 14 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 01:09:39 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 24, 2020, 12:27:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 11:44:11 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 24, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:51:10 AMMost states ask people to quarantine for 14 days, but not sure how strictly enforced that is.

I thought Alaska and Hawaii were the only states that even cared after about late April.

It's mostly employers at this point that want the 14 self isolation thing.

There's still a VMS on the border of MA/NH 125 that tells people who stay in NH to quarantine for 14 days.
Is it enforced?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 24, 2020, 01:41:57 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 01:09:39 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 24, 2020, 12:27:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 11:44:11 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 24, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 24, 2020, 10:51:10 AMMost states ask people to quarantine for 14 days, but not sure how strictly enforced that is.

I thought Alaska and Hawaii were the only states that even cared after about late April.

It's mostly employers at this point that want the 14 self isolation thing.

There's still a VMS on the border of MA/NH 125 that tells people who stay in NH to quarantine for 14 days.
Is it enforced?

I think it uses "encouraged" or a similar word, so it's just a suggestion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 24, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.
2

So much so that last week my wife and I, with our two over-18 kids, ate in at a nearby Italian café that defiantly opened ahead of the governor's orders for our PA County. (Businesses are starting to do that rather than go out of business.) The place was practicing social distancing, but no employees or patrons wore masks.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:17:58 AM
...when I see people say things like "the staff had no masks!!!" as if it is somehow a defiant symbol of freedom, I shake my head and say WTF?

It's a simple gesture to help others.  For a society who praises the sacrifices of those in the military, or the essential workers, you would think that doing something that small wouldn't be that big of a deal.

But here we are.  Viewing it as some sort of assault on our liberties.

I have a biology degree and my wife is a nurse who works in our local hospital. We know how the virus is transmitted, we know what the stats are in our area, and we know the risks. We also know that in PA, 69% of the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. So the number of deaths in the general population is roughly only 31% of the total. We also have first responder and medical community friends who have begun to go mask-less wherever they're allowed. They've heartily approved. We'll probably patronize the restaurant again soon. Sans masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on May 24, 2020, 04:15:52 PM
The VMS displays in Washington had been saying, for quite a while, "STAYING HOME IS SAVING LIVES -- KEEP IT UP WA!"

Just saw one yesterday that now displays something to the effect of "please slow down" since everyone is going 10 to 20 over the limit. 10 over is normal, but I'm seeing more packs of drivers going much faster than that (more than compared to pre-virus). I was briefly with a group on I-5 near Burien that was approaching 85 to 90, which is well over the limit of 60 and certainly a bit faster than most drivers would go, even when quiet. I think these "super speeders" are more common than they used to be. Not that they bother me, since everyone going fast isn't much if any more dangerous than everyone going 60, assuming herds of deer don't suddenly wander onto the freeway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:26:32 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.
2

So much so that last week my wife and I, with our two over-18 kids, ate in at a nearby Italian café that defiantly opened ahead of the governor's orders for our PA County. (Businesses are starting to do that rather than go out of business.) The place was practicing social distancing, but no employees or patrons wore masks.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:17:58 AM
...when I see people say things like "the staff had no masks!!!" as if it is somehow a defiant symbol of freedom, I shake my head and say WTF?

It's a simple gesture to help others.  For a society who praises the sacrifices of those in the military, or the essential workers, you would think that doing something that small wouldn't be that big of a deal.

But here we are.  Viewing it as some sort of assault on our liberties.

I have a biology degree and my wife is a nurse who works in our local hospital. We know how the virus is transmitted, we know what the stats are in our area, and we know the risks. We also know that in PA, 69% of the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. So the number of deaths in the general population is roughly only 31% of the total. We also have first responder and medical community friends who have begun to go mask-less wherever they're allowed. They've heartily approved. We'll probably patronize the restaurant again soon. Sans masks.

You are irresponsible and so are your friends. Too bad your stupidity can hurt people other than yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 04:30:39 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:26:32 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.
2

So much so that last week my wife and I, with our two over-18 kids, ate in at a nearby Italian café that defiantly opened ahead of the governor's orders for our PA County. (Businesses are starting to do that rather than go out of business.) The place was practicing social distancing, but no employees or patrons wore masks.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:17:58 AM
...when I see people say things like "the staff had no masks!!!" as if it is somehow a defiant symbol of freedom, I shake my head and say WTF?

It's a simple gesture to help others.  For a society who praises the sacrifices of those in the military, or the essential workers, you would think that doing something that small wouldn't be that big of a deal.

But here we are.  Viewing it as some sort of assault on our liberties.

I have a biology degree and my wife is a nurse who works in our local hospital. We know how the virus is transmitted, we know what the stats are in our area, and we know the risks. We also know that in PA, 69% of the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. So the number of deaths in the general population is roughly only 31% of the total. We also have first responder and medical community friends who have begun to go mask-less wherever they're allowed. They've heartily approved. We'll probably patronize the restaurant again soon. Sans masks.

You are irresponsible and so are your friends. Too bad your stupidity can hurt people other than yourself.

Is that example of the so called "social pressure"  I hear so much about?  If I wasn't required to wear a mask in so many places be it by ordinance, emergency law, or policy of a building I wouldn't either. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on May 24, 2020, 04:31:34 PM
Social distancing not found at Lake of the Ozarks (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/us/ozarks-missouri-party/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 04:36:30 PM
^^^

Virus or not that's a perfect example why I usually just avoid going anywhere on holiday weekends.  I am looking forward to my days off later this week when everyone and their dog will be entrenched at wherever they work. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:41:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 04:30:39 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:26:32 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.
2

So much so that last week my wife and I, with our two over-18 kids, ate in at a nearby Italian café that defiantly opened ahead of the governor's orders for our PA County. (Businesses are starting to do that rather than go out of business.) The place was practicing social distancing, but no employees or patrons wore masks.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:17:58 AM
...when I see people say things like "the staff had no masks!!!" as if it is somehow a defiant symbol of freedom, I shake my head and say WTF?

It's a simple gesture to help others.  For a society who praises the sacrifices of those in the military, or the essential workers, you would think that doing something that small wouldn't be that big of a deal.

But here we are.  Viewing it as some sort of assault on our liberties.

I have a biology degree and my wife is a nurse who works in our local hospital. We know how the virus is transmitted, we know what the stats are in our area, and we know the risks. We also know that in PA, 69% of the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. So the number of deaths in the general population is roughly only 31% of the total. We also have first responder and medical community friends who have begun to go mask-less wherever they're allowed. They've heartily approved. We'll probably patronize the restaurant again soon. Sans masks.

You are irresponsible and so are your friends. Too bad your stupidity can hurt people other than yourself.

Is that example of the so called "social pressure"  I hear so much about?  If I wasn't required to wear a mask in so many places be it by ordinance, emergency law, or policy of a building I wouldn't either. 

Congrats. You're just as selfish.

Very representative of our problems as a society.  Care more about self rather than community.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:26:32 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
I have a biology degree and my wife is a nurse who works in our local hospital. We know how the virus is transmitted, we know what the stats are in our area, and we know the risks. We also know that in PA, 69% of the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. So the number of deaths in the general population is roughly only 31% of the total. We also have first responder and medical community friends who have begun to go mask-less wherever they're allowed. They've heartily approved. We'll probably patronize the restaurant again soon. Sans masks.

You are irresponsible and so are your friends. Too bad your stupidity can hurt people other than yourself.

So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Congratulations, you just won the ignorant asshole commenter of the day award!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 04:48:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:41:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 04:30:39 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:26:32 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 12:40:32 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.
2

So much so that last week my wife and I, with our two over-18 kids, ate in at a nearby Italian café that defiantly opened ahead of the governor's orders for our PA County. (Businesses are starting to do that rather than go out of business.) The place was practicing social distancing, but no employees or patrons wore masks.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:17:58 AM
...when I see people say things like "the staff had no masks!!!" as if it is somehow a defiant symbol of freedom, I shake my head and say WTF?

It's a simple gesture to help others.  For a society who praises the sacrifices of those in the military, or the essential workers, you would think that doing something that small wouldn't be that big of a deal.

But here we are.  Viewing it as some sort of assault on our liberties.

I have a biology degree and my wife is a nurse who works in our local hospital. We know how the virus is transmitted, we know what the stats are in our area, and we know the risks. We also know that in PA, 69% of the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. So the number of deaths in the general population is roughly only 31% of the total. We also have first responder and medical community friends who have begun to go mask-less wherever they're allowed. They've heartily approved. We'll probably patronize the restaurant again soon. Sans masks.

You are irresponsible and so are your friends. Too bad your stupidity can hurt people other than yourself.

Is that example of the so called "social pressure"  I hear so much about?  If I wasn't required to wear a mask in so many places be it by ordinance, emergency law, or policy of a building I wouldn't either. 

Congrats. You're just as selfish.

Very representative of our problems as a society.  Care more about self rather than community.

Your opinion, seems like you have a problem with anyone who views things differently than you do.  I didn't even say I didn't wear a mask, I just said that I wouldn't if it was an option...it isn't.  You jumped on me probably just as fast as anyone else who offends your sensibilities.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 05:56:49 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

And just as drunken driving goes I don't engage in simply due to the fact that it is illegal...it really doesn't matter what I think one way or the other.  Right now a lot of the local communities actual can charge you with a misdemeanor crime if you don't abide by...including wearing a mask in public.  Regardless of what I think about that I don't want a $1,000 fine, potential jail time, or risking losing my job over a piece of cloth.  Either way, I don't think that anyone would disagree that avoiding others as much as possible is a far more effective measure than wearing a mask.  Hence why I'm sitting at home on Memorial Weekend banging out Highway articles as opposed to joining a mosh pit of humanity.   

To that end, places of business are perfectly within their right to require their patrons to wear masks regardless if a local order exists or not.  A private business can chose to serve whoever they wish and turn away those that won't abide by the rules of their facility.  I'm still surprised that people get angry or outraged when they are asked to leave a business that requires a mask. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 24, 2020, 06:14:01 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on May 24, 2020, 04:15:52 PM
Just saw one yesterday that now displays something to the effect of "please slow down" since everyone is going 10 to 20 over the limit. 10 over is normal, but I'm seeing more packs of drivers going much faster than that (more than compared to pre-virus). I was briefly with a group on I-5 near Burien that was approaching 85 to 90, which is well over the limit of 60 and certainly a bit faster than most drivers would go, even when quiet. I think these "super speeders" are more common than they used to be. Not that they bother me, since everyone going fast isn't much if any more dangerous than everyone going 60, assuming herds of deer don't suddenly wander onto the freeway.

I have noticed that here too. I used to cruise at around or just below 70 mph in 55 mph zones, and would be one of the faster ones on the road. More recently, 70-75 is the norm, and I've even been passed by people doing 80+, so I've now been picking 72 or 73 as my cruising speed. As far as enforcement, I'm not worried as long as I stay under 75 (20 over). You can get ticketed for 15-20 over, but I know all the cop hideouts for the freeways I use regularly, so I make sure to spot them early and slow down to my old speed (high 60's, usually 68 or 69).

I love the faster speeds and hope it endures well beyond the end of the pandemic. The only drawback is that getting stuck behind someone on a two-lane road, which was already annoying, has become even more so (but fortunately, it's also less frequent because of the lower overall volumes).

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:14:40 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 04:26:32 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
I have a biology degree and my wife is a nurse who works in our local hospital. We know how the virus is transmitted, we know what the stats are in our area, and we know the risks. We also know that in PA, 69% of the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. So the number of deaths in the general population is roughly only 31% of the total. We also have first responder and medical community friends who have begun to go mask-less wherever they're allowed. They've heartily approved. We'll probably patronize the restaurant again soon. Sans masks.

You are irresponsible and so are your friends. Too bad your stupidity can hurt people other than yourself.

So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Congratulations, you just won the ignorant asshole commenter of the day award!

I don't think I know more than a slew of federal, state and local officials, and heads of various medical systems in my area, that say masking is important.

I don't pretend that my college degree trumps the above knowledge by people who devoted their careers to this work.

So frankly I'm not the ignorant one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 06:21:54 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Did you ever go off to war?   What does that have to do with having opinion that is different from you regarding masks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 06:25:05 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")
Common sense is not a very good tool in many cases.
We're talking about virus being spread through larger droplets coming off the mouth. People spit those out at high speed (~10 feet) when sneezing, less so when coughing (~6 feet) and talking(~3 feet). Droplets may later dry out and travel with air, but they are flying ballistically once they are coming out - and can be intercepted at that point. Remember - cover your mouth with a napkin, or at least an elbow when you sneeze/cough? That is exactly same thing - except now we care a bit more and want you to cover you... (censored)... I mean your mouth.... whenever it is opened. Mask is intercepting those droplets, pretty much like napkin - exept for you don't have to reach for napkin any more.
So yes, mask has a one way sign - virus takes different form outside and inside the mask.

See how futile your common sense is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 24, 2020, 07:25:20 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 06:25:05 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")
Common sense is not a very good tool in many cases.
We're talking about virus being spread through larger droplets coming off the mouth. People spit those out at high speed (~10 feet) when sneezing, less so when coughing (~6 feet) and talking(~3 feet). Droplets may later dry out and travel with air, but they are flying ballistically once they are coming out - and can be intercepted at that point. Remember - cover your mouth with a napkin, or at least an elbow when you sneeze/cough? That is exactly same thing - except now we care a bit more and want you to cover you... (censored)... I mean your mouth.... whenever it is opened. Mask is intercepting those droplets, pretty much like napkin - exept for you don't have to reach for napkin any more.
So yes, mask has a one way sign - virus takes different form outside and inside the mask.

See how futile your common sense is?

And this is the point - respiratory droplets - that many people aren't getting, for whatever reason...and there are a lot of reasons.

A sneeze:  releases 30,000 droplets at 200MPH over 10 feet
A cough:  releases 3,000 droplets at 50 MPH over 6 feet
A breath:  releases at least 50 droplets, low velocity and distance

Talking releases 200 droplets per minute,
Talking loudly more,
Yelling or singing more.

Indoors vs outdoors is important, air movement in or out is important as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

[Edited for typos. ]
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 07:41:08 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.
Problem here is that this is "the weakest link" type of a situation. Flareup will occur among those not willing to play nice - and the result more long weeks of lockdown for everyone.
This virus is too weak to cause true Darwinian selection, though...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:43:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

Really can't help yourself, eh? Can't just say someone looks at it differently, maybe even say I just don't understand them? Gotta backhandedly say I'm a bad person? Ooo-kay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 24, 2020, 07:46:48 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

This really isn't about fear.  Or at least it doesn't need to be.  I know I can die while driving, but I'm not afraid of it.  I even enjoy it and often drive more than I really need to.  I use the safety belt, I pay attention, I don't drive like maniac.  That doesn't take away all of the risk, but it takes away a lot of it.  Likewise, I'm not going to the crowded places we're seeing in the news, I don't stand around up close to people, if I have to go by someone in a store, I pass by swiftly.  That doesn't take away all of the risk, but it takes away a lot of it.  Unless we get a vaccine soon, which is unlikely, it's probable that a substantial portion of the population will catch this.  I might have had it in March, I had something that wasn't very bad, which this is for some people.  If I haven't had it yet, I want to avoid catching it if I can at least until we have effective treatments.

Fear is an interesting thing.  It's an emotion, but it's also a motivation, or more accurately, a motivator.  Fear can call to action make people more vigilant, and it an also cause people to collapse.  As with many emotions, it's up to us to use it well and not be harmed by it.  I treat this virus like a car, or a rattlesnake.  Either can kill me, but that's a lot more likely if I do something stupid.  It may be inevitable that many of us catch it.  Even in that case, caution is still helpful.  At a minimum, we want to avoid all catching it at once so we don't have people dying in hospital parking lots with no one to help them.  Also, the more we can hold it back until we get some good treatments, the better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 24, 2020, 07:46:57 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:43:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

Really can't help yourself, eh? Can't just say someone looks at it differently, maybe even say I just don't understand them? Gotta backhandedly say I'm a bad person? Ooo-kay.

"Looking at it differently" or "don't understand them" are code for "science isn't convenient for me so I'm going to pretend it doesn't exist"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 24, 2020, 07:58:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

I haven't worn a mask at all.  It isn't required anywhere I've gone.  But in stores I keep a distance from people and I keep my mouth closed.  I've been in a store and had someone crowd up behind me in line and exhale vigorously.  I wanted to turn around and give an expression of disapproval, but it was probably best not to turn around.  I have a mask and I would put it on if I were going to be close to someone for a while or talking.  I don't really want to wear it, but I would if circumstances warranted.  Other than people standing too close behind me, where they aren't really in the path of me breathing, things aren't so crowded that I can't keep a pretty consistent distance or pass by someone within a few seconds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 24, 2020, 08:32:35 PM
Just imagine the resistance if y'all actually had to do something difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:41:04 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:43:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

Really can't help yourself, eh? Can't just say someone looks at it differently, maybe even say I just don't understand them? Gotta backhandedly say I'm a bad person? Ooo-kay.


Looks at it differently?  It's not an opinion FFS.

You are ignorant and you are selfish.  Don't like that I am labelling you a bad person?  Then stop being one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 08:43:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:41:04 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:43:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

Really can't help yourself, eh? Can't just say someone looks at it differently, maybe even say I just don't understand them? Gotta backhandedly say I'm a bad person? Ooo-kay.


Looks at it differently?  It's not an opinion FFS.

You are ignorant and you are selfish.  Don't like that I am labelling you a bad person?  Then stop being one.

Kind of proving my point about attacking everyone who doesn't agree with you fully.  You never did answer my question if you've actually been a war. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 24, 2020, 08:59:53 PM
I'm not afraid of the virus.

I'm afraid of all the idiots who refuse to wear a thin piece of cloth because they are whiny adults who can't deal with the being told what to do.

They will bring the virus into public spaces and spread it around out of their willful ignorance while demanding things reopen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:04:43 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 24, 2020, 08:59:53 PM
I'm not afraid of the virus.

I'm afraid of all the idiots who refuse to wear a thin piece of cloth because they are whiny adults who can't deal with the being told what to do.

They will bring the virus into public spaces and spread it around out of their willful ignorance while demanding things reopen.

I wear a mask when I go out, I take care of my business as efficiently as I can, then come home.  Knock on wood. I have not come down with the virus and I intend to stay that way, even if I'm the only one in the store with a mask.

If you choose NOT to, that's your problem and maybe your funeral.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:08:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 08:43:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:41:04 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:43:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

Really can't help yourself, eh? Can't just say someone looks at it differently, maybe even say I just don't understand them? Gotta backhandedly say I'm a bad person? Ooo-kay.


Looks at it differently?  It's not an opinion FFS.

You are ignorant and you are selfish.  Don't like that I am labelling you a bad person?  Then stop being one.

Kind of proving my point about attacking everyone who doesn't agree with you fully.  You never did answer my question if you've actually been a war. 

I've never "been a war."

And I didn't notice your question earlier because I usually don't read your posts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 09:12:21 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:04:43 PM
If you choose NOT to, that's your problem and maybe your funeral.
The problem is that its the other way around. Aerosol particles easily get around the cloth mask, so people without masks are YOUR problem.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:23:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 09:12:21 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:04:43 PM
If you choose NOT to, that's your problem and maybe your funeral.
The problem is that its the other way around. Aerosol particles easily get around the cloth mask, so people without masks are YOUR problem.



Oh, I didn't know you were an infectious disease expert?  Anyway, I wear an N95 mask, not cheap cloth mask. I want to protect myself, not play Lone Ranger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 24, 2020, 09:27:02 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:23:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 09:12:21 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:04:43 PM
If you choose NOT to, that's your problem and maybe your funeral.
The problem is that its the other way around. Aerosol particles easily get around the cloth mask, so people without masks are YOUR problem.



Oh, I didn't know you were an infectious disease expert?  Anyway, I wear an N95 mask, not cheap cloth mask. I want to protect myself, not play Lone Ranger.

He's saying the reverse as in "wearing a mask protects others more than you", not as in "masks aren't necessary".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 09:35:24 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:23:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 09:12:21 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:04:43 PM
If you choose NOT to, that's your problem and maybe your funeral.
The problem is that its the other way around. Aerosol particles easily get around the cloth mask, so people without masks are YOUR problem.



Oh, I didn't know you were an infectious disease expert?  Anyway, I wear an N95 mask, not cheap cloth mask. I want to protect myself, not play Lone Ranger.
A bit better for you, and depending on mask design - presence of outflow valve - possibly a bit worse for those around you. I hope you read how to maintain the mask - they lose efficiency pretty quickly..
Still lame, I have a mask with a fit factor of 1500.
As for expert.. Due to occupational exposure, I am in a respiratory protection program for past 15 years or so; had to read and write a few things - including on dust and aerosol control...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:39:24 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:08:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 08:43:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:41:04 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:43:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

Really can't help yourself, eh? Can't just say someone looks at it differently, maybe even say I just don't understand them? Gotta backhandedly say I'm a bad person? Ooo-kay.


Looks at it differently?  It's not an opinion FFS.

You are ignorant and you are selfish.  Don't like that I am labelling you a bad person?  Then stop being one.

Kind of proving my point about attacking everyone who doesn't agree with you fully.  You never did answer my question if you've actually been a war. 

I've never "been a war."

And I didn't notice your question earlier because I usually don't read your posts.

Then what business do you have telling anyone how they would act/react in a war?  You're the one who's posting like an ass lobbing insults at numerous members and not expecting to be called out on it.  In my case, even though I don't necessarily agree with the rules in front of me regarding masks I do abide by them.  You even went as far as to call me "selfish"  and "what is wrong with society."   I've also had to abide by way more medical screens than probably most will ever see during this pandemic and even a hard travel restriction which for a time threatened to have me living in a hotel away from my wife.  I also stop at least a half dozen to a dozen people a day and make sure they put their masks on...in spite of how effective/not effective it might be. To that end, I've done what I can within the rules to take of my family and make sure they have been okay.  Maybe you'll actually want to consider that not everyone is a complete piece of crap who doesn't agree with your stance on the pandemic?...maybe not? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:51:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

I would imagine that it wouldn't help if those affected had severe damage to their lungs.  I remember during the couple years after there was a lot of reports of people exposed to the debris of the Twin Towers having respiratory problems. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on May 24, 2020, 10:05:38 PM
Quote from: wxfree on May 24, 2020, 07:46:48 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

This really isn't about fear.  Or at least it doesn't need to be.  I know I can die while driving, but I'm not afraid of it.  I even enjoy it and often drive more than I really need to.  I use the safety belt, I pay attention, I don't drive like maniac.  That doesn't take away all of the risk, but it takes away a lot of it.  Likewise, I'm not going to the crowded places we're seeing in the news, I don't stand around up close to people, if I have to go by someone in a store, I pass by swiftly.  That doesn't take away all of the risk, but it takes away a lot of it.  Unless we get a vaccine soon, which is unlikely, it's probable that a substantial portion of the population will catch this.  I might have had it in March, I had something that wasn't very bad, which this is for some people.  If I haven't had it yet, I want to avoid catching it if I can at least until we have effective treatments.

Fear is an interesting thing.  It's an emotion, but it's also a motivation, or more accurately, a motivator.  Fear can call to action make people more vigilant, and it an also cause people to collapse.  As with many emotions, it's up to us to use it well and not be harmed by it.  I treat this virus like a car, or a rattlesnake.  Either can kill me, but that's a lot more likely if I do something stupid.  It may be inevitable that many of us catch it.  Even in that case, caution is still helpful.  At a minimum, we want to avoid all catching it at once so we don't have people dying in hospital parking lots with no one to help them.  Also, the more we can hold it back until we get some good treatments, the better.

Great post. Kinda sums up my attitude toward it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 24, 2020, 10:07:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:51:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

I would imagine that it wouldn't help if those affected had severe damage to their lungs.  I remember during the couple years after there was a lot of reports of people exposed to the debris of the Twin Towers having respiratory problems. 
The crowded living conditions doesn't help matters either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 10:08:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:51:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

I would imagine that it wouldn't help if those affected had severe damage to their lungs.  I remember during the couple years after there was a lot of reports of people exposed to the debris of the Twin Towers having respiratory problems. 

One has to wonder how many hidden health issues might be out there.  Apparently (and, please, NYCers, correct me if I'm wrong), the worst-hit borough was Queens, which is east of the WTC site.  If the prevailing winds took enough fine debris out that way, it could've created a ticking time bomb for borough residents.  To me, it sounds like it is worth investigating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 10:12:25 PM
Quote from: US71 on May 24, 2020, 09:04:43 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 24, 2020, 08:59:53 PM
I'm not afraid of the virus.

I'm afraid of all the idiots who refuse to wear a thin piece of cloth because they are whiny adults who can't deal with the being told what to do.

They will bring the virus into public spaces and spread it around out of their willful ignorance while demanding things reopen.

I wear a mask when I go out, I take care of my business as efficiently as I can, then come home.  Knock on wood. I have not come down with the virus and I intend to stay that way, even if I'm the only one in the store with a mask.

If you choose NOT to, that's your problem and maybe your funeral.

CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus patients don't have symptoms (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html)

QuoteIn new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.
The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
The agency cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about Covid-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. Still, the agency says its estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29.

QuoteFor people age 65 and older, the CDC puts that number at 1.3%. For people 49 and under, the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 10:14:20 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 10:08:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:51:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

I would imagine that it wouldn't help if those affected had severe damage to their lungs.  I remember during the couple years after there was a lot of reports of people exposed to the debris of the Twin Towers having respiratory problems. 

One has to wonder how many hidden health issues might be out there.  Apparently (and, please, NYCers, correct me if I'm wrong), the worst-hit borough was Queens, which is east of the WTC site.  If the prevailing winds took enough fine debris out that way, it could've created a ticking time bomb for borough residents.  To me, it sounds like it is worth investigating.

Apparently 1,000 tons of asbestos was tossed around after the attack on the World Trade Center.  The list of respiratory related deaths among first responders was pretty considerable:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_effects_arising_from_the_September_11_attacks#Examples_of_health_issues
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 24, 2020, 10:33:35 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 10:14:20 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 10:08:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:51:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

I would imagine that it wouldn't help if those affected had severe damage to their lungs.  I remember during the couple years after there was a lot of reports of people exposed to the debris of the Twin Towers having respiratory problems. 

One has to wonder how many hidden health issues might be out there.  Apparently (and, please, NYCers, correct me if I'm wrong), the worst-hit borough was Queens, which is east of the WTC site.  If the prevailing winds took enough fine debris out that way, it could've created a ticking time bomb for borough residents.  To me, it sounds like it is worth investigating.

Apparently 1,000 tons of asbestos was tossed around after the attack on the World Trade Center.  The list of respiratory related deaths among first responders was pretty considerable:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_effects_arising_from_the_September_11_attacks#Examples_of_health_issues
While dust and asbestos likely didn't help, it would be very difficult to actually trace things. Research on humans is pretty difficult as it is, and it should be  even worse in a crazy pandemic scenario
If you think about it, we still have no distinct answers to much easier questions: if smoking affects things one way or the other (there are claims going both ways!), if certain drugs work, or if ibuprofen indeed makes things worse.
as for wind...
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/ynk2Tk3hoYkDgJur5ck7xR-970-80.jpg

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 10:33:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 10:14:20 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 10:08:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:51:26 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

I would imagine that it wouldn't help if those affected had severe damage to their lungs.  I remember during the couple years after there was a lot of reports of people exposed to the debris of the Twin Towers having respiratory problems. 

One has to wonder how many hidden health issues might be out there.  Apparently (and, please, NYCers, correct me if I'm wrong), the worst-hit borough was Queens, which is east of the WTC site.  If the prevailing winds took enough fine debris out that way, it could've created a ticking time bomb for borough residents.  To me, it sounds like it is worth investigating.

Apparently 1,000 tons of asbestos was tossed around after the attack on the World Trade Center.  The list of respiratory related deaths among first responders was pretty considerable:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_effects_arising_from_the_September_11_attacks#Examples_of_health_issues

This would be very fine dust, and asbestos is particularly insidious in this.  It's too small to see, has no smell, no sound, no taste, and causes no irritation on the skin.  A slightly reduced lung capacity might not even be noticed until something like Covid-19 shows up.  The worst-affected areas in the city were in Brooklyn and Queens, IIRC, all downwind of the WTC site.  Anyone older than 19-20 would potentially be vulnerable here due to the dust raised by the collapse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: cl94 on May 24, 2020, 10:37:41 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

"World Trade Center Cough" was mostly confined to first responders who worked on the site or people who were within a few blocks of the collapse (nearby schools and businesses, etc.). High dust exposure didn't go beyond Lower Manhattan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 25, 2020, 01:06:35 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

I wouldn't be so quick to assume there isn't a very real mechanism by which it could make a difference. A couple things to consider:

- while the virus can only be exhaled through your nose and/or mouth, it can potentially get into your body through your eyes.
- the process of inhaling from a cloud of virus-containing water droplets is not precisely mirror to the process of exhaling virus-containing water droplets. The droplets gradually shrink as they spend time in the air (because water evaporates), and smaller droplets may be better able to pass through or around a mask than larger ones.

Quote from: cl94 on May 24, 2020, 10:37:41 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

"World Trade Center Cough" was mostly confined to first responders who worked on the site or people who were within a few blocks of the collapse (nearby schools and businesses, etc.). High dust exposure didn't go beyond Lower Manhattan.

Beyond this, consider the air quality in NYC on a daily basis. It is continuously out of EPA compliance on multiple key pollutants. This would have much more of an impact on people's respiratory health than a one-time event 19 years ago would.

But yes, air quality in NYC (not having anything to do with 9/11) is a plausible aggravating factor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on May 25, 2020, 04:13:19 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

Why do you suppose a surgeon in an operating room wears a mask? It's not because they're afraid of catching anything from the patient...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 25, 2020, 07:49:22 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I just had a thought regarding the seriousness of the pandemic in New York City.  It is possible that the dust from the collapse of the Twin Towers left more people there vulnerable to a respiratory disease such as Covid-19 than in other, similar areas in the US?

After 19 years, I suspect a large number of those living in NYC weren't living there on 9/11.  Lots of births and migrations have happened in the intervening time.  It would be interesting to find out how much of a "churn" the NYC population has.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 08:46:11 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 09:39:24 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 09:08:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 24, 2020, 08:43:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 08:41:04 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:43:27 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: qguy on May 24, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 24, 2020, 06:20:09 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

The whole concepts of asymptomatic transmission and the virus living on external surfaces are starting to be disputed. I've seen two separate studies this weekend ripping the idea of asymptomatic transmission to shreds, and now there's evidence that the virus doesn't live on stuff like doorknobs or steering wheels the way it was once thought.

I am sick to death of this fear-mongering. I only wear a mask when required, and so far have not yet been required to, although I will the next time I am in a public area of my office. I have not worn one inside a business, and fully 60 percent of fellow shoppers I've encountered aren't wearing masks.

It's not being selfish -- it's called having discernment.

It's not only being selfish, it shows an ignorance of people who know this stuff and recommending a course of action to benefit society. But it's too hard. Good thing you bozos weren't around when Pearl Harbor was born. If it's too hard to wear a mask to benefit others, going off to war would be way to inconvenient.

Y'know what I'm really tired of? When someone labels those who disagree with them as bad people. Not just holding a different opinion, not perhaps as having different ideas of how to achieve similar goals, but of being "selfish," "arrogant," and the list of insults could go on from there.

Meh, even what you think of me is just your opinion.

We ate at a local restaurant mainly to support a local business and help prevent it from disappearing. My wife and I wear masks (without complaining to people) where they are required, like my local supermarkets, pizzerias, and takeouts. But we understand that what masks mostly do is make people feel better. Most of our neighbors do not wear masks as they walk and jog around the neighborhood. (Some do.) Our friends in the neighborhood don't wear masks when we talk with each other. We don't look at masks as a sacrifice we're not willing to bear. I don't know anyone who thinks that. We think they're usually unnecessary and sometimes counterproductive. So we wear them to be nice or when it's required.

Don't like that we think that? Then take it up with the dueling experts. It would be nice if they all agreed with each other but they don't.

I'm not going to place value judgments on people, but if you know you are going to be within 6 feet of somebody you don't live with and don't wear a mask, you are increasing the chances that person contracts the virus. If you don't think that makes you a bad person, I'm not going to argue with that.

Really can't help yourself, eh? Can't just say someone looks at it differently, maybe even say I just don't understand them? Gotta backhandedly say I'm a bad person? Ooo-kay.


Looks at it differently?  It's not an opinion FFS.

You are ignorant and you are selfish.  Don't like that I am labelling you a bad person?  Then stop being one.

Kind of proving my point about attacking everyone who doesn't agree with you fully.  You never did answer my question if you've actually been a war. 

I've never "been a war."

And I didn't notice your question earlier because I usually don't read your posts.

Then what business do you have telling anyone how they would act/react in a war?  You're the one who's posting like an ass lobbing insults at numerous members and not expecting to be called out on it.  In my case, even though I don't necessarily agree with the rules in front of me regarding masks I do abide by them.  You even went as far as to call me "selfish"  and "what is wrong with society."   I've also had to abide by way more medical screens than probably most will ever see during this pandemic and even a hard travel restriction which for a time threatened to have me living in a hotel away from my wife.  I also stop at least a half dozen to a dozen people a day and make sure they put their masks on...in spite of how effective/not effective it might be. To that end, I've done what I can within the rules to take of my family and make sure they have been okay.  Maybe you'll actually want to consider that not everyone is a complete piece of crap who doesn't agree with your stance on the pandemic?...maybe not? 


You can "call me out" on whatever you want. 

I don't care about the opinion of inherently selfish people such as yourself so it will largely be ignored anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 08:48:05 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 25, 2020, 04:13:19 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

Why do you suppose a surgeon in an operating room wears a mask? It's not because they're afraid of catching anything from the patient...


Let's be honest here, HB and others aren't actually actively engaging in any intelligent "discernment."  They are simply attempting to justify how they want to act.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 25, 2020, 08:52:05 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 08:48:05 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 25, 2020, 04:13:19 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

Why do you suppose a surgeon in an operating room wears a mask? It's not because they're afraid of catching anything from the patient...


Let's be honest here, HB and others aren't actually actively engaging in any intelligent "discernment."  They are simply attempting to justify how they want to act.

Masks aren't required for everything. Max Rockatansky does a lot of long-distance running, where it's not needed.

They are definitely needed inside a building, although I could see possible exceptions for things like jewelry stores where you have a single employee behind a counter and no more than one or two customers in the store at any given time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:20:43 AM
Quote from: 1 on May 25, 2020, 08:52:05 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 08:48:05 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 25, 2020, 04:13:19 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

Why do you suppose a surgeon in an operating room wears a mask? It's not because they're afraid of catching anything from the patient...


Let's be honest here, HB and others aren't actually actively engaging in any intelligent "discernment."  They are simply attempting to justify how they want to act.

Masks aren't required for everything. Max Rockatansky does a lot of long-distance running, where it's not needed.

They are definitely needed inside a building, although I could see possible exceptions for things like jewelry stores where you have a single employee behind a counter and no more than one or two customers in the store at any given time.

Hopefully this will come off more tactful than my initial response I drafted to two posts back...   What people like SEWIguy don't understand is that there absolutely situations where masks aren't necessary, even in areas where they aren't required.  Example; in Fresno everyone is supposed to have a mask on while out in a "public space."   That vague definition can be inferred to mean any place that really isn't inside a home where a person is isolated from everyone else.  It isn't realistic to have an order that exactly and expect people to follow it to a tee in all situations.  To your point, there is no way a mask would be workable on a distance run or even a walk for some people.   When I go to the store, I put the mask on...even though I would prefer not to.  We didn't have a mask requirement for quite a long ways into the pandemic and the numbers of new cases really has remained fairly proportional to what they were.  So to that end, I tend to question their effectiveness...that's all.  If holding that opinion somehow makes me a horrible and selfish person in the eyes of someone like SEWIguy then so be it.  I do get tired of people like SEWIguy who are forceful with their views dog piling on anyone who doesn't agree with them. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
LOL, I never argued that you should be wearing masks outside when you are on a run.  I walk the dog every day, don't wear a mask, and never come within 20 feet of another human being.  The entire context of the discussion was in places like stores, restaurants, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on May 25, 2020, 11:04:07 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 25, 2020, 04:13:19 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

Why do you suppose a surgeon in an operating room wears a mask? It's not because they're afraid of catching anything from the patient...

Or, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4480558/

A few studies have confirmed surgeons wearing a mask changes nothing for post-operative infection rates.

I also didn't know this until finding it. It kind of shocked me as I would not have expected them to be so useless, but your comment piqued my curiosity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 25, 2020, 11:17:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:20:43 AMWhat people like SEWIguy don't understand is that there absolutely situations where masks aren't necessary, even in areas where they aren't required.
Much better definition would be - within 6-10' from people other than household members, and having one available when such contact may be plausible (having one in a pocket may be a good idea even on a remote trail). But that may be too lousy of a definition.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 25, 2020, 11:24:52 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on May 25, 2020, 11:04:07 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 25, 2020, 04:13:19 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 24, 2020, 06:09:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 24, 2020, 05:40:05 PM
Wearing a mask is not to prevent you from catching the virus. It's to keep you from giving it to others. Thus, not wearing a mask is essentially the same as drunk driving. The law is not there to keep you from doing something stupid and hurting yourself, it's to protect the people around you from you. You don't know if the strangers you're around in the store are diabetic, or if they have some other underlying condition, or if they live with or care for someone who is high risk.

Quote from: Brandon on May 24, 2020, 04:46:58 PM
So you think you know more than a person with a biology degree and whose wife is a nurse!?!

Is the biology degree with a specialization in epidemiology? If not, it's irrelevant. Likewise, nurses do not necessarily have expertise in viral infection–a nurse who works in physical therapy or neurology wouldn't necessarily have helpful information to give, for instance.

Use a little common sense. (Not just you, but everyone). If the mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, how can it be expected to prevent you from spreading it? Do the masks have little "one way" or "do not enter" signs on them? People act like the virus is a sentinent being that can make conscious decisions, or like a flea that jumps from one surface to another. If the virus can get in through a mask ("protecting you") then it most certainly can get out through a mask ("protecting others.")

Why do you suppose a surgeon in an operating room wears a mask? It's not because they're afraid of catching anything from the patient...

Or, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4480558/

A few studies have confirmed surgeons wearing a mask changes nothing for post-operative infection rates.

I also didn't know this until finding it. It kind of shocked me as I would not have expected them to be so useless, but your comment piqued my curiosity.

Looks like some bad science to me. 95% CI on 36 cases? gimme a break!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: cl94 on May 25, 2020, 11:28:22 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 25, 2020, 11:17:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:20:43 AMWhat people like SEWIguy don't understand is that there absolutely situations where masks aren't necessary, even in areas where they aren't required.
Much better definition would be - within 6-10' from people other than household members, and having one available when such contact may be plausible (having one in a pocket may be a good idea even on a remote trail). But that may be too lousy of a definition.

I like that definition. For example, when hiking yesterday, I had a mask in my pocket. Generally, I was able to move several feet off the trail so people could pass at distance. But when we couldn't, I masked up and the other people generally did as well. Hell, fellow forum user Dougtone and I had a short meet-up from our cars in Delhi, NY (we were both in the area hiking) and masked up for the short time we talked. It's just not worth the risk and, as a transportation professional, I want to show good behavior when out in the public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
LOL, I never argued that you should be wearing masks outside when you are on a run.  I walk the dog every day, don't wear a mask, and never come within 20 feet of another human being.  The entire context of the discussion was in places like stores, restaurants, etc.

But you jumped on me for not liking the concept of not wearing mask, despite me doing so in practice.  To that end, you revealed your true colors on your thought process behind the issue; anyone who thinks differently than you is wrong.  That was the point of me saying "is this an example of social pressure?"    People like you forcing their views unreasonably onto others are just as bad (IMO) as those who are willfully defiant of safety regulation and law. 

Should someone be going to the diner without a mask on if it is required by law or establishment policy?...no.  That doesn't mean that they have to like it or agree with the reasoning behind it.  Like I said, I wasn't under a blank of mask regulations myself I probably wouldn't be wearing one myself.   I personally of the mind that I don't want to get fined, cited, or trespass from a place of business I frequent.  More so, I personally find it pretty lame to vilify someone completely for not wearing a mask either in that situation.  There are infinitely far worse things that a person can do than not wearing a mask.  Not wearing a mask doesn't by default a terrible person make.  The problem is that the concept of "social pressure"  inevitably leads to situations like what transpired above. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:55:46 AM
Quote from: cl94 on May 25, 2020, 11:28:22 AM
Quote from: kalvado on May 25, 2020, 11:17:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:20:43 AMWhat people like SEWIguy don't understand is that there absolutely situations where masks aren't necessary, even in areas where they aren't required.
Much better definition would be - within 6-10' from people other than household members, and having one available when such contact may be plausible (having one in a pocket may be a good idea even on a remote trail). But that may be too lousy of a definition.

I like that definition. For example, when hiking yesterday, I had a mask in my pocket. Generally, I was able to move several feet off the trail so people could pass at distance. But when we couldn't, I masked up and the other people generally did as well. Hell, fellow forum user Dougtone and I had a short meet-up from our cars in Delhi, NY (we were both in the area hiking) and masked up for the short time we talked. It's just not worth the risk and, as a transportation professional, I want to show good behavior when out in the public.

I do likewise when I'm out hiking.  Fortunately most of the trails I venture onto are so remote that encountering others and getting around them really isn't a problem.  If I need to stop at a store I carry a mask with me anyways because I legitimately don't know if it is their policy to have them on usually until I get to the front door. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
LOL, I never argued that you should be wearing masks outside when you are on a run.  I walk the dog every day, don't wear a mask, and never come within 20 feet of another human being.  The entire context of the discussion was in places like stores, restaurants, etc.

But you jumped on me for not liking the concept of not wearing mask, despite me doing so in practice.  To that end, you revealed your true colors on your thought process behind the issue; anyone who thinks differently than you is wrong.  That was the point of me saying "is this an example of social pressure?"    People like you forcing their views unreasonably onto others are just as bad (IMO) as those who are willfully defiant of safety regulation and law. 

Should someone be going to the diner without a mask on if it is required by law or establishment policy?...no.  That doesn't mean that they have to like it or agree with the reasoning behind it.  Like I said, I wasn't under a blank of mask regulations myself I probably wouldn't be wearing one myself.   


Then you would be selfish.  Period.

If you don't want me to keep jumping on you, stop saying stupid, selfish sh*t.  It's very simple.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 12:34:42 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
LOL, I never argued that you should be wearing masks outside when you are on a run.  I walk the dog every day, don't wear a mask, and never come within 20 feet of another human being.  The entire context of the discussion was in places like stores, restaurants, etc.

But you jumped on me for not liking the concept of not wearing mask, despite me doing so in practice.  To that end, you revealed your true colors on your thought process behind the issue; anyone who thinks differently than you is wrong.  That was the point of me saying "is this an example of social pressure?"    People like you forcing their views unreasonably onto others are just as bad (IMO) as those who are willfully defiant of safety regulation and law. 

Should someone be going to the diner without a mask on if it is required by law or establishment policy?...no.  That doesn't mean that they have to like it or agree with the reasoning behind it.  Like I said, I wasn't under a blank of mask regulations myself I probably wouldn't be wearing one myself.   


Then you would be selfish.  Period.

If you don't want me to keep jumping on you, stop saying stupid, selfish sh*t.  It's very simple.

See, it's all about you and what you think.  Be damned what anyone else thinks or feels does it?  Kind of ironic that you're pointing the "selfish"  at me when you can't have your way with everyone agreeing with you wholesale. 

There is a substantial difference between having a reasonable disagreement with someone and being a hot headed jerk about it.  You can't even formulate a clear argument as to why I should change my opinion because you'd rather lob insults.  Maybe it wasn't my place to interject when you did it to another poster but I'm but I rather have my say on how lame it was. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 12:40:50 PM
To that end there had been more than a fair share of disagreements in this thread.  I know in my case there was one early on where I "strongly"  disagreed with what another poster was saying. Personally I don't see a problem with disagreements or having different views on this topic (or any other for that matter) so long as they don't descend into outright insults.  I know full well that people are passionate in what they believe one way or the other, but does this really have go bush league like so many other social media posts do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 25, 2020, 01:03:25 PM
Not wearing a mask because it isn't necessary is reasonable, even though I disagree with it. The problem is not wearing a mask as a form of protest, or specifically because the virus is overhyped/a hoax/a conspiracy, or because "freedom". Those are the people I want to stay away from.

I do think that if someone is an essential worker at a grocery store or something else that requires being near people for several hours a day, a mask is absolutely required, and this situation is much more important than being a customer for just a few minutes.

Please stop throwing the same insult over and over. It only weakens your case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on May 25, 2020, 03:06:41 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Then you would be selfish.  Period.

If you don't want me to keep jumping on you, stop saying stupid, selfish sh*t.  It's very simple.

You're the type of person that's going to egg on a jogger or cyclist murdered by some nut with your ridiculous rhetoric because some mask nitwit runs them off the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 03:18:58 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on May 25, 2020, 03:06:41 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Then you would be selfish.  Period.

If you don't want me to keep jumping on you, stop saying stupid, selfish sh*t.  It's very simple.

You're the type of person that's going to egg on a jogger or cyclist murdered by some nut with your ridiculous rhetoric because some mask nitwit runs them off the road.


Note to board. Don't run joggers off the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 03:21:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 12:34:42 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
LOL, I never argued that you should be wearing masks outside when you are on a run.  I walk the dog every day, don't wear a mask, and never come within 20 feet of another human being.  The entire context of the discussion was in places like stores, restaurants, etc.

But you jumped on me for not liking the concept of not wearing mask, despite me doing so in practice.  To that end, you revealed your true colors on your thought process behind the issue; anyone who thinks differently than you is wrong.  That was the point of me saying "is this an example of social pressure?"    People like you forcing their views unreasonably onto others are just as bad (IMO) as those who are willfully defiant of safety regulation and law. 

Should someone be going to the diner without a mask on if it is required by law or establishment policy?...no.  That doesn't mean that they have to like it or agree with the reasoning behind it.  Like I said, I wasn't under a blank of mask regulations myself I probably wouldn't be wearing one myself.   


Then you would be selfish.  Period.

If you don't want me to keep jumping on you, stop saying stupid, selfish sh*t.  It's very simple.

See, it's all about you and what you think.  Be damned what anyone else thinks or feels does it?  Kind of ironic that you're pointing the "selfish"  at me when you can't have your way with everyone agreeing with you wholesale. 

There is a substantial difference between having a reasonable disagreement with someone and being a hot headed jerk about it.  You can't even formulate a clear argument as to why I should change my opinion because you'd rather lob insults.  Maybe it wasn't my place to interject when you did it to another poster but I'm but I rather have my say on how lame it was. 

You haven't changed your mind despite mounds of evidence here and presented by experts all over the country.

Because you are selfish and care only about yourself.

I'm not going to try to change your mind. You won't. Selfish people don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 03:57:03 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 03:21:51 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 12:34:42 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 25, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
LOL, I never argued that you should be wearing masks outside when you are on a run.  I walk the dog every day, don't wear a mask, and never come within 20 feet of another human being.  The entire context of the discussion was in places like stores, restaurants, etc.

But you jumped on me for not liking the concept of not wearing mask, despite me doing so in practice.  To that end, you revealed your true colors on your thought process behind the issue; anyone who thinks differently than you is wrong.  That was the point of me saying "is this an example of social pressure?"    People like you forcing their views unreasonably onto others are just as bad (IMO) as those who are willfully defiant of safety regulation and law. 

Should someone be going to the diner without a mask on if it is required by law or establishment policy?...no.  That doesn't mean that they have to like it or agree with the reasoning behind it.  Like I said, I wasn't under a blank of mask regulations myself I probably wouldn't be wearing one myself.   


Then you would be selfish.  Period.

If you don't want me to keep jumping on you, stop saying stupid, selfish sh*t.  It's very simple.

See, it's all about you and what you think.  Be damned what anyone else thinks or feels does it?  Kind of ironic that you're pointing the "selfish"  at me when you can't have your way with everyone agreeing with you wholesale. 

There is a substantial difference between having a reasonable disagreement with someone and being a hot headed jerk about it.  You can't even formulate a clear argument as to why I should change my opinion because you'd rather lob insults.  Maybe it wasn't my place to interject when you did it to another poster but I'm but I rather have my say on how lame it was. 

You haven't changed your mind despite mounds of evidence here and presented by experts all over the country.

Because you are selfish and care only about yourself.

I'm not going to try to change your mind. You won't. Selfish people don't.

Well you seem to think that you know more than all of us, so why try to actually educate if your word is absolute?  If you didn't want a debate then why did you start one?  It seems like all you have been capable of is single  sentence insults together and not much more.  It kind of makes me question if you really have thought your stance through at all?  Why not start with some facts and figures from the evidence you cited without reference?  At this point I'm giving you the open door to actually engage in intelligent dialog and perhaps not come off as piggishly hostile towards anyone who doesn't share your world views.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on May 25, 2020, 04:04:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 03:57:03 PM
It kind of makes me question if you really have thought your stance through at all?  Why not start with some facts and figures from the evidence you cited without reference?  At this point I'm giving you the open door to actually engage in intelligent dialog and perhaps not come off as piggishly hostile towards anyone who doesn't share your world views.

The basic concept is simple: if you have the virus, wearing a mask will reduce the risk of spreading it to other people. If you are walking or running outside, you're probably not going to encounter anyone, or if you do, you'll pass by for a few seconds at most. Inside buildings, not only are there more people close by, but it's an enclosed space, and wearing a mask is recommended.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 04:18:11 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 25, 2020, 04:04:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 03:57:03 PM
It kind of makes me question if you really have thought your stance through at all?  Why not start with some facts and figures from the evidence you cited without reference?  At this point I'm giving you the open door to actually engage in intelligent dialog and perhaps not come off as piggishly hostile towards anyone who doesn't share your world views.

The basic concept is simple: if you have the virus, wearing a mask will reduce the risk of spreading it to other people. If you are walking or running outside, you're probably not going to encounter anyone, or if you do, you'll pass by for a few seconds at most. Inside buildings, not only are there more people close by, but it's an enclosed space, and wearing a mask is recommended.

I don't necessarily disagree.  I was more driving home a point that expecting to being outwardly hostile towards several posters usually doesn't go well.  SEWIguy seems to think his opinion has more value than others and has done little to back his reasons.  I'm not the only person he's gotten into debates on this thread. 

Objectively speaking by definition my stance on wearing masks isn't selfish.  I wear the masks regardless of how I feel, by the nature of that act I'm not being selfish.  By the nature of going to work during the holiday weekend despite wanting to be outside and around others is also not selfish.  So basically I'm left with the conclusion that SEWIguy can't put together a sound reasoning to support the argument that my mental state and not agreeing with him makes me a selfish/ignorant person. 

So my question is, if SEWIguy is so resolute in his beliefs why not try to actually defend them?  I don't think he can actually do it without resulting to insults, maybe he can prove me wrong? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 04:37:40 PM
At this point in case anyone is wondering I'm fully aware that I'm not making this current situation any better myself.  That said, if anyone has any new Coronavirus information or topical discussion then I'm game to drop this and move on. 

Here is a starter topic, a federal court ruled in favor of California being allowed to keep churches closed for the time being.  I find that interesting given the Department of Justice just sent a letter to the government regarding potential violations of civil liberties with keeping churches closed.  Los Angeles County received a similar notice from the Department of Justice recently about the length of their emergency order:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/federal-court-backs-california-gov-gavin-newsoms-orders-162800993--abc-news-topstories.html

In National Park news Pinnacles reopened to cyclists and hikers on 5/22.  That said, you literally have to hike or cycle into the park unless you require handicap access.  Death Valley announced they won't reopen until California enters Phase 3. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 25, 2020, 04:44:22 PM
I went to the blue hills for a little drive with my family, and the parking lots were almost full.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 04:50:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 25, 2020, 04:44:22 PM
I went to the blue hills for a little drive with my family, and the parking lots were almost full.

A friend of mine went out to the Lewis Creek Trail on Saturday, reported it was packed in spite of trail damage.  I have an employee out at Stevenson Creek Falls, the Trail I busy but they got out early to avoid the crowds.  My wife is driving to her Dad's, she says that people are out fishing on the San Joaquin River but it is otherwise quiet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 05:46:06 PM
Regarding the church debate in California apparently there has been an appeal to the US Supreme Court:

https://www.newsweek.com/california-churchs-battle-gov-gavin-newsom-over-reopening-could-head-supreme-court-1506379

To that end the state issued it's first Church Reopening guidelines today.  The big guideline is in person service capacity will be limited to 25% for the first three weeks of reopening:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-25/california-churches-coronavirus-guidance

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 25, 2020, 05:58:54 PM
Having sat out the mask debate, I figure I may as well report on my reconnaissance visit to the gym last Friday.

Downtown Wichita YMCA (https://www.google.com/maps/@37.69245,-97.3355991,3a,75y,274.23h,86.18t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sBTZfAT4pqYbIYtLkLrN7Kw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192)

The basics:

*  Normally the parking lot is full, to the extent that I was having to use overflow parking about one-third of the time before COVID-19 took hold here.  Last Friday it was two-thirds empty and I had my choice of free spaces next to the handicap parking in front.

*  About half of the equipment was marked out of use, though adjacent pieces were available if people using each could maintain six-foot separation.

*  Pools and locker rooms were closed, though bathrooms were open.

*  Water fountains were disabled.  Water bottle refilling stations had the fountain function disabled, though they could still be used to refill bottles.

*  All staff were wearing masks and gloves (it is mandatory for them).  I was pretty much the only member wearing a mask.  Nobody appeared to be wearing gloves for purely sanitary reasons (some members use weightlifters' gloves).

*  Members are asked to sanitize equipment both before and after use.  On the main exercise floor, there were stations where staff issued bottles of sanitizer and clean towels.

*  Sanitizer bottle holsters on weight machines etc. were empty.  The only sanitizer bottles you are supposed to use are ones that have been sanitized (on the outside) before being handed to you by a glove-wearing member of staff.

*  Small lockers (used for securing wallets, keys, and other small valuables) appeared still to be in service.

*  Because the gym is located downtown, which has the bulk of lawyers' offices, and is the flagship for the local YMCA, it ordinarily attracts a broad cross-section by age, income, and education level, though the male/female ratio is about two to one and skewed even more toward males in the weight area.  Last Friday, nearly everyone I saw was young and male; I could count the women on the fingers of one hand.  Most of the activity was concentrated in the weight area, with almost no-one using the cardio machines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 06:03:47 PM
How were free weights handled?  I would imagine that those would be wiped down after use?  I can see that leading to hoarding of certain weights or people running off with them.  That's probably the biggest problem at my local gym, there has historically been no control of keeping free weights organized and racked properly.  Supposedly my gym is just waiting on the State to announce Phase 3.  I'll probably do a couple extra workouts the week they reopen to get a lay of the land.  I have a feeling the pace will be slowed considerably from what I'm used (mostly circuit training).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 25, 2020, 06:22:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 06:03:47 PMHow were free weights handled?  I would imagine that those would be wiped down after use?  I can see that leading to hoarding of certain weights or people running off with them.  That's probably the biggest problem at my local gym, there has historically been no control of keeping free weights organized and racked properly.  Supposedly my gym is just waiting on the State to announce Phase 3.  I'll probably do a couple extra workouts the week they reopen to get a lay of the land.  I have a feeling the pace will be slowed considerably from what I'm used (mostly circuit training).

I didn't see anyone spraying sanitizer on barbell handhold areas, weight plates, dumbbells, cable machine pull handles, or other things that are routinely touched by hand.  I'd expect spraying to be limited largely to weight benches and the like (as was the norm before COVID-19).  At my gym we have issues with weight plates being re-racked out of order that come and go.  We used to have great difficulty keeping barbell weight clips on hand, but this has abated, I think because management is intentionally overstocking them.

I think sanitizing stuff is going to be a time pit, but probably largely offset by low demand (thus no waiting time) for the weight benches and cable machines, even with the young bucks gravitating to that part of the floor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 25, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 05:46:06 PM
Regarding the church debate in California apparently there has been an appeal to the US Supreme Court:

https://www.newsweek.com/california-churchs-battle-gov-gavin-newsom-over-reopening-could-head-supreme-court-1506379

To that end the state issued it's first Church Reopening guidelines today.  The big guideline is in person service capacity will be limited to 25% for the first three weeks of reopening:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-25/california-churches-coronavirus-guidance
Those 25% would have to pray real hard to make up for th rest of the gang.
In slightly differnt news:
(https://i.imgur.com/nlTp6on.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 06:27:43 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 25, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 05:46:06 PM
Regarding the church debate in California apparently there has been an appeal to the US Supreme Court:

https://www.newsweek.com/california-churchs-battle-gov-gavin-newsom-over-reopening-could-head-supreme-court-1506379

To that end the state issued it's first Church Reopening guidelines today.  The big guideline is in person service capacity will be limited to 25% for the first three weeks of reopening:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-25/california-churches-coronavirus-guidance
Those 25% would have to pray real hard to make up for th rest of the gang.
In slightly differnt news:
(https://i.imgur.com/nlTp6on.jpg)

Hell, I'd drink for four or five...maybe six if I'm feeling up to it.  Usually I drink all the beer at home anyways, I finished the 70 surplus beers from the wedding in less than three months. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 25, 2020, 06:22:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 06:03:47 PMHow were free weights handled?  I would imagine that those would be wiped down after use?  I can see that leading to hoarding of certain weights or people running off with them.  That's probably the biggest problem at my local gym, there has historically been no control of keeping free weights organized and racked properly.  Supposedly my gym is just waiting on the State to announce Phase 3.  I'll probably do a couple extra workouts the week they reopen to get a lay of the land.  I have a feeling the pace will be slowed considerably from what I'm used (mostly circuit training).

I didn't see anyone spraying sanitizer on barbell handhold areas, weight plates, dumbbells, cable machine pull handles, or other things that are routinely touched by hand.  I'd expect spraying to be limited largely to weight benches and the like (as was the norm before COVID-19).  At my gym we have issues with weight plates being re-racked out of order that come and go.  We used to have great difficulty keeping barbell weight clips on hand, but this has abated, I think because management is intentionally overstocking them.

I think sanitizing stuff is going to be a time pit, but probably largely offset by low demand (thus no waiting time) for the weight benches and cable machines, even with the young bucks gravitating to that part of the floor.

Hopefully that's the case, it was leading up to closing.  I think it was just me and about six other serious regulars who were showing leading into the City Shutdown.  I have access to a military base gym too, that one will have me curious since they have BUMED hanging over their heads. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 25, 2020, 07:18:50 PM
California and Illinois have surpassed New York in daily confirmed cases:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&doublingtime=3&location=California&location=Illinois&location=New+York
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 08:29:31 PM
Regarding self quarantine orders for out of state travel, here is a more up to date list:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-reopening-many-still-require-215946935.html

There is a lot of "please quarantine for 14 days"  but still a handful of hard orders out there.  I was kind of surprised to see Nevada asking for voluntary quarantines still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 25, 2020, 08:49:13 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 25, 2020, 04:04:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 03:57:03 PM
It kind of makes me question if you really have thought your stance through at all?  Why not start with some facts and figures from the evidence you cited without reference?  At this point I'm giving you the open door to actually engage in intelligent dialog and perhaps not come off as piggishly hostile towards anyone who doesn't share your world views.

The basic concept is simple: if you have the virus, wearing a mask will reduce the risk of spreading it to other people. If you are walking or running outside, you're probably not going to encounter anyone, or if you do, you'll pass by for a few seconds at most. Inside buildings, not only are there more people close by, but it's an enclosed space, and wearing a mask is recommended.

To add to this...someone may have the virus and not know they have it.  For people who get symptoms, those symptoms do not appear for the first few days at a minimum.  There are those who don't have symptoms.  I feel this point gets forgotten or glossed over, by those who are waiting for a fever to appear to think they have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 08:54:39 PM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 25, 2020, 08:49:13 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 25, 2020, 04:04:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 03:57:03 PM
It kind of makes me question if you really have thought your stance through at all?  Why not start with some facts and figures from the evidence you cited without reference?  At this point I'm giving you the open door to actually engage in intelligent dialog and perhaps not come off as piggishly hostile towards anyone who doesn't share your world views.

The basic concept is simple: if you have the virus, wearing a mask will reduce the risk of spreading it to other people. If you are walking or running outside, you're probably not going to encounter anyone, or if you do, you'll pass by for a few seconds at most. Inside buildings, not only are there more people close by, but it's an enclosed space, and wearing a mask is recommended.

To add to this...someone may have the virus and not know they have it.  For people who get symptoms, those symptoms do not appear for the first few days at a minimum.  There are those who don't have symptoms.  I feel this point gets forgotten or glossed over, by those who are waiting for a fever to appear to think they have it.

Some of the latest figures I see frequently thrown out there are 35-40% asymptomatic.  From there a large percentage seems to have mild symptoms which probably wouldn't have ever raised a red flag in any other time prior in recent memory.  There is a pretty good chance if that someone was to spend a fair amount of time out in the world that they have already been infected and never knew it.  Even with something as mundane as a common cold symptoms can range from nothing to approaching flu like. 

Looking back to the beginning of the year there was so many unknown variables with COVID-19 that have had some solid answers now.  Back there wasn't a really much in the way of a clear understanding of how the disease was spread and how lethal it was.  Early in the going a lot of epidemiology experts were throwing out mortality rates of 3-5% which i think really scared a lot of people.  As more and more facts come out, that scary "unknown"  factor is starting to wane in the general populace.  Right now that seems to be evident in the form most people have stopped panic buying, the stock markets have largely stabilized after falling hard, and more people are willing/wanting their lives to go back to some semblance of normal.  While none of this COVID-19 stuff has been good it hasn't turned out to be the doomsday scenario it was often touted to be months ago. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 25, 2020, 10:00:38 PM
...thanks to the measures that were taken.

Of course, after this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if positive trends worsened or reversed in a couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 25, 2020, 10:05:44 PM
I'm not so sure some of the measures taken made much of a difference.  Some states never fully shut down and had fatality rates well below states that did shut completely down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:11:15 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 25, 2020, 10:00:38 PM
...thanks to the measures that were taken.

Of course, after this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if positive trends worsened or reversed in a couple of weeks.

Yes, but that assumed 3-5% mortality rate didn't end up being a thing.  No one measure was the catch all that sometimes they get singled out to be.  Aside masks some of the other common measures have been:

-  Stay at home/shelter in place orders of varying degrees.  Some were pretty harsh (I was under a 50 mile radius one myself for awhile) whereas others were lax.
-  Pushing to close, shutter or reduce operations of non-essential businesses and facilities
-  Pushing hand washing and disinfecting as a regular practice. 
-  Additonal PPE requirements, the retail world seemed to be the most aggressive on this front.  Masks would fall under this definition. 

As I've stated many times in this thread, I've never once read anything from a public health official saying that virus could be stopped once it was here.  Now that there is established facts the degree of risk of reopening can be more properly calculated.  I don't think really many jurisdictions (Wisconsin comes to mind as an odd exceptions) where everyone was thrown into the mix like it was business as usual.  People will still get sick, there isn't anything that will stop that now.  Now it seems the goal is to introduce as much normalcy as possible that doesn't lead to case overload, because things like the economy and financial welfare of a ton of people are at stake. 

I guess that's the primary reason why I don't see masks as the be all end all so many think it is.  It was more so the other measures that was able to control movement kept things stable so hospitals didn't get overwhelmed.  There doesn't appear to be a ton of evidence to suggest that outside of a few exceptions that hospitals will get overwhelmed.  If anything the mask wearing ought to be pushed as a way of speeding up the process of reopening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 25, 2020, 10:17:22 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 25, 2020, 10:05:44 PM
I'm not so sure some of the measures taken made much of a difference.  Some states never fully shut down and had fatality rates well below states that did shut completely down.
Such as?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on May 25, 2020, 10:17:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:11:15 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 25, 2020, 10:00:38 PM
...thanks to the measures that were taken.

Of course, after this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if positive trends worsened or reversed in a couple of weeks.

Yes, but that assumed 3-5% mortality rate didn't end up being a thing.  No one measure was the catch all that sometimes they get singled out to be.  Aside masks some of the other common measures have been:

-  Stay at home/shelter in place orders of varying degrees.  Some were pretty harsh (I was under a 50 mile radius one myself for awhile) whereas others were lax.
-  Pushing to close, shutter or reduce operations of non-essential businesses and facilities
-  Pushing hand washing and disinfecting as a regular practice. 
-  Additonal PPE requirements, the retail world seemed to be the most aggressive on this front.  Masks would fall under this definition. 

As I've stated many times in this thread, I've never once read anything from a public health official saying that virus could be stopped once it was here.  Now that there is established facts the degree of risk of reopening can be more properly calculated.  I don't think really many jurisdictions (Wisconsin comes to mind as an odd exceptions) where everyone was thrown into the mix like it was business as usual.  People will still get sick, there isn't anything that will stop that now.  Now it seems the goal is to introduce as much normalcy as possible that doesn't lead to case overload, because things like the economy and financial welfare of a ton of people are at stake. 

I guess that's the primary reason why I don't see masks as the be all end all so many think it is.  It was more so the other measures that was able to control movement kept things stable so hospitals didn't get overwhelmed.  There doesn't appear to be a ton of evidence to suggest that outside of a few exceptions that hospitals will get overwhelmed.  If anything the mask wearing ought to be pushed as a way of speeding up the process of reopening.
Johns Hopkins reports a 6% fatality to case rate in the U.S.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:22:46 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 25, 2020, 10:17:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 10:11:15 PM
Quote from: Rothman on May 25, 2020, 10:00:38 PM
...thanks to the measures that were taken.

Of course, after this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if positive trends worsened or reversed in a couple of weeks.

Yes, but that assumed 3-5% mortality rate didn't end up being a thing.  No one measure was the catch all that sometimes they get singled out to be.  Aside masks some of the other common measures have been:

-  Stay at home/shelter in place orders of varying degrees.  Some were pretty harsh (I was under a 50 mile radius one myself for awhile) whereas others were lax.
-  Pushing to close, shutter or reduce operations of non-essential businesses and facilities
-  Pushing hand washing and disinfecting as a regular practice. 
-  Additonal PPE requirements, the retail world seemed to be the most aggressive on this front.  Masks would fall under this definition. 

As I've stated many times in this thread, I've never once read anything from a public health official saying that virus could be stopped once it was here.  Now that there is established facts the degree of risk of reopening can be more properly calculated.  I don't think really many jurisdictions (Wisconsin comes to mind as an odd exceptions) where everyone was thrown into the mix like it was business as usual.  People will still get sick, there isn't anything that will stop that now.  Now it seems the goal is to introduce as much normalcy as possible that doesn't lead to case overload, because things like the economy and financial welfare of a ton of people are at stake. 

I guess that's the primary reason why I don't see masks as the be all end all so many think it is.  It was more so the other measures that was able to control movement kept things stable so hospitals didn't get overwhelmed.  There doesn't appear to be a ton of evidence to suggest that outside of a few exceptions that hospitals will get overwhelmed.  If anything the mask wearing ought to be pushed as a way of speeding up the process of reopening.
Johns Hopkins reports a 6% fatality to case rate in the U.S.

Correct if I'm wrong, but isn't that on "confirmed cases?"   I don't think anyone reasonably assuming that the current "confirmed case count"  is even close to what's really out there.  The common number I see floating in the news with suspected cases factored in is 0.3%-1%. 

Some other measures I forgot about:

-  Encouraging people who didn't feel good to stay home.
-  Health screens
-  Temperature checks

Out of the three the staying home part probably was by far the most effective I noted.  It pissed a lot of people off at first but they got over their 100% attendance mindset pretty fast. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 25, 2020, 10:52:58 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 25, 2020, 01:03:25 PM
The problem is not wearing a mask as a form of protest, or specifically because the virus is overhyped/a hoax/a conspiracy, or because "freedom". Those are the people I want to stay away from.

I agree with you on that; but it's not because I think I'm more likely to contract the virus from them. It's because these viewpoints are harmful to society.

An example was mentioned upthread comparing mask wearing to other basic requirements that we don't even think about, for example, "No Shirt, No Shoes, No Service". Most people wouldn't dream of walking into a grocery store or a Thruway service area barefoot and shirtless. 300 years ago, it would have probably been normal (not on the Thruway, of course, but say, at a trading post), but things have evolved over time. Wearing a face covering is no different, it just feels different because it was sprung on us and became normal in a matter of weeks instead of centuries. Some resistance to change is normal, but it's important to be able to accept societal shifts like this one, because if we abandon our willingness to accept changes we don't like, we are in effect abandoning society itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 25, 2020, 11:08:44 PM
Do you think that we will lock down again if a second wave comes? Belgium just said that they won't lockdown as hard if there is a second wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 25, 2020, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 25, 2020, 10:05:44 PM
I'm not so sure some of the measures taken made much of a difference.  Some states never fully shut down and had fatality rates well below states that did shut completely down.

That's a unfair comparison.  There's 6 counties in NJ that have a higher population than all of Wyoming.  New York City - just the city - has a higher population than 38 states.  So of course there should be states that fared better than others with fewer restrictions...because the restrictions wouldn't make any sense relative to their mostly rural populations..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:18:04 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 25, 2020, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 25, 2020, 10:05:44 PM
I'm not so sure some of the measures taken made much of a difference.  Some states never fully shut down and had fatality rates well below states that did shut completely down.

That's a unfair comparison.  There's 6 counties in NJ that have a higher population than all of Wyoming.  New York City - just the city - has a higher population than 38 states.  So of course there should be states that fared better than others with fewer restrictions...because the restrictions wouldn't make any sense relative to their mostly rural populations..

The one thing I think most would agree on is that densely populated areas got hit way harder than rural population centers.  But then again, that's kind of par for the course in almost every pandemic ever.  With regards to San Francisco and the Bay Area that was one of the few major population centers that somehow managed to not get totally hammered like NYC did and how Los Angeles is now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:32:16 PM
Here is an article that cites the CDC estimated 0.3-0.4% mortality rate of COVID-19:

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Again, while that's not a good number is leagues below what some of the initial worst case mortality rates that were being thrown out early in the pandemic.  It isn't so far fetched to see why 3-4% would scare people but 0.3-0.4% would far less so. 

For reference the 1918 Spanish Flu was thought to have had a mortality rate possibly over 10%.  If you think things are bad now put yourself in the shoes of someone who lived through World War I just to come home to watch an even greater number of people die of the flu. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on May 26, 2020, 12:06:15 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 25, 2020, 11:08:44 PM
Do you think that we will lock down again if a second wave comes? Belgium just said that they won't lockdown as hard if there is a second wave.

Hopefully we'll have the capacity to test people, and identify others who were exposed and get them tested.  If we can do that, we can only quarantine people who were exposed until they either recover or are determined not to have it.  An effective treatment that lowers the fatality rate and the damage the disease causes will make it less scary.  If people are more careful, that will help slow it down.  I've reduced my shopping from pretty much every day to weekly.  The few non-supermarket items I've bought I ordered online and had delivered, which I never did before unless I couldn't get something at a store within about 50 miles.  If people are more aware and make little changes, especially not gathering in crowds, then we may not get massive uncontrolled spread like we had before.  Also, if the numbers start to go up too fast, maybe we'll be quicker to act this time.  Since we have more testing, we're able to figure out when the numbers are going up sooner.  Hopefully any stay at home orders will be limited to certain places if there's an outbreak.  I am hopeful that it won't be as bad as it was in spring, but I'm not really optimistic.  Maybe people acting like idiots, gathering together in huge numbers with no precautions, is just a temporary celebration of freedom, and they'll start being safer as time goes on.  How bad this gets is up to us.  Our behavior determines how many people are going to die and how severe the restrictions will be later on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 26, 2020, 07:39:14 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:32:16 PM
Here is an article that cites the CDC estimated 0.3-0.4% mortality rate of COVID-19:

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Again, while that's not a good number is leagues below what some of the initial worst case mortality rates that were being thrown out early in the pandemic.  It isn't so far fetched to see why 3-4% would scare people but 0.3-0.4% would far less so. 

For reference the 1918 Spanish Flu was thought to have had a mortality rate possibly over 10%.  If you think things are bad now put yourself in the shoes of someone who lived through World War I just to come home to watch an even greater number of people die of the flu. 

I've usually seen rates anywhere from 3-5% for the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.  The second wave, which was really deadly, was caused in part by sick troops being sent back and forth during the last year of WWI.  That pandemic killed 500,000 to 850,000 in the US (out of a then population of 100 million).

Then we have the 1968 H3N2 pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu) (Hong Kong Flu) that killed 100,000 in the US alone (out of a then population of about 200 million).  This seems to be a forgotten pandemic for some reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 08:07:50 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 26, 2020, 07:39:14 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:32:16 PM
Here is an article that cites the CDC estimated 0.3-0.4% mortality rate of COVID-19:

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Again, while that's not a good number is leagues below what some of the initial worst case mortality rates that were being thrown out early in the pandemic.  It isn't so far fetched to see why 3-4% would scare people but 0.3-0.4% would far less so. 

For reference the 1918 Spanish Flu was thought to have had a mortality rate possibly over 10%.  If you think things are bad now put yourself in the shoes of someone who lived through World War I just to come home to watch an even greater number of people die of the flu. 

I've usually seen rates anywhere from 3-5% for the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.  The second wave, which was really deadly, was caused in part by sick troops being sent back and forth during the last year of WWI.  That pandemic killed 500,000 to 850,000 in the US (out of a then population of 100 million).

Then we have the 1968 H3N2 pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu) (Hong Kong Flu) that killed 100,000 in the US alone (out of a then population of about 200 million).  This seems to be a forgotten pandemic for some reason.

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 09:03:15 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 08:07:50 AM
Quote from: Brandon on May 26, 2020, 07:39:14 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 25, 2020, 11:32:16 PM
Here is an article that cites the CDC estimated 0.3-0.4% mortality rate of COVID-19:

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Again, while that's not a good number is leagues below what some of the initial worst case mortality rates that were being thrown out early in the pandemic.  It isn't so far fetched to see why 3-4% would scare people but 0.3-0.4% would far less so. 

For reference the 1918 Spanish Flu was thought to have had a mortality rate possibly over 10%.  If you think things are bad now put yourself in the shoes of someone who lived through World War I just to come home to watch an even greater number of people die of the flu. 

I've usually seen rates anywhere from 3-5% for the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.  The second wave, which was really deadly, was caused in part by sick troops being sent back and forth during the last year of WWI.  That pandemic killed 500,000 to 850,000 in the US (out of a then population of 100 million).

Then we have the 1968 H3N2 pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu) (Hong Kong Flu) that killed 100,000 in the US alone (out of a then population of about 200 million).  This seems to be a forgotten pandemic for some reason.

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 26, 2020, 09:04:24 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 08:07:50 AM


Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic.
More like changing meaning of "normal". What we don't appreciate is the amount of work and money invested in keeping people safe.
Think about it in such a way: life expectancy in US pre-WWI (pre-Spanish flu baseline) was about 50 years compared to 80 years today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.

The biggest factor in media today that is different than at any other point in time is that regular people are part of in the form of social media platform.  Think about all the theories and conjecture that spawn from even the smallest media sensation, that absolutely carries some real world impact.  In cases like COVID-19 there wasn't many known facts early on so the internet got to work on coming up with their own theories, that doesn't usually bode well in terms not starting panics.  This thread itself is kind of a perfect example of said phenomenon. 

Either way this whole experience with COVID-19 will probably be really interesting retroactively.  It seems that this was the first really serious effort by society as a whole to control the spread of a pandemic that had some relative uniformity to it. 

Speaking of the NBA, man I'm really surprised they haven't resumed play with some of the European Soccer leagues have gotten going.  I thought NASCAR put together a pretty decent template with pit crews and PPE.  The bigger issue that the NBA, NHL, and MLB probably will have is finding a state/states that are willing to host them like NASCAR did.  While that might be possible out East in some states like Florida I couldn't fathom California being okay with sports right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 10:48:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.

The biggest factor in media today that is different than at any other point in time is that regular people are part of in the form of social media platform.  Think about all the theories and conjecture that spawn from even the smallest media sensation, that absolutely carries some real world impact.  In cases like COVID-19 there wasn't many known facts early on so the internet got to work on coming up with their own theories, that doesn't usually bode well in terms not starting panics.  This thread itself is kind of a perfect example of said phenomenon. 

Either way this whole experience with COVID-19 will probably be really interesting retroactively.  It seems that this was the first really serious effort by society as a whole to control the spread of a pandemic that had some relative uniformity to it. 

Speaking of the NBA, man I'm really surprised they haven't resumed play with some of the European Soccer leagues have gotten going.  I thought NASCAR put together a pretty decent template with pit crews and PPE.  The bigger issue that the NBA, NHL, and MLB probably will have is finding a state/states that are willing to host them like NASCAR did.  While that might be possible out East in some states like Florida I couldn't fathom California being okay with sports right now. 

I think part of the problem is at what price are the players willing to come back - both salary wise and isolation wise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 26, 2020, 11:22:19 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 10:48:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.

The biggest factor in media today that is different than at any other point in time is that regular people are part of in the form of social media platform.  Think about all the theories and conjecture that spawn from even the smallest media sensation, that absolutely carries some real world impact.  In cases like COVID-19 there wasn't many known facts early on so the internet got to work on coming up with their own theories, that doesn't usually bode well in terms not starting panics.  This thread itself is kind of a perfect example of said phenomenon. 

Either way this whole experience with COVID-19 will probably be really interesting retroactively.  It seems that this was the first really serious effort by society as a whole to control the spread of a pandemic that had some relative uniformity to it. 

Speaking of the NBA, man I'm really surprised they haven't resumed play with some of the European Soccer leagues have gotten going.  I thought NASCAR put together a pretty decent template with pit crews and PPE.  The bigger issue that the NBA, NHL, and MLB probably will have is finding a state/states that are willing to host them like NASCAR did.  While that might be possible out East in some states like Florida I couldn't fathom California being okay with sports right now. 

I think part of the problem is at what price are the players willing to come back - both salary wise and isolation wise.

One thing to keep in mind - while a regular person may mostly recover from the virus, top performing athlets may take a long time to recover to full breathing capability - if ever. So isolation price may be much more reasonable given that career is otherwise at stake
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 26, 2020, 11:25:40 AM
The first 5 NASCAR Cup races are no farther than 150 miles from the teams shops in Charlotte (2 Darlington races, 2 Charlotte races, 1 Bristol race).  The Michigan race on June 7th will be the first race where the teams will have to travel a significant distance from their race shops. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 10:48:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.

The biggest factor in media today that is different than at any other point in time is that regular people are part of in the form of social media platform.  Think about all the theories and conjecture that spawn from even the smallest media sensation, that absolutely carries some real world impact.  In cases like COVID-19 there wasn't many known facts early on so the internet got to work on coming up with their own theories, that doesn't usually bode well in terms not starting panics.  This thread itself is kind of a perfect example of said phenomenon. 

Either way this whole experience with COVID-19 will probably be really interesting retroactively.  It seems that this was the first really serious effort by society as a whole to control the spread of a pandemic that had some relative uniformity to it. 

Speaking of the NBA, man I'm really surprised they haven't resumed play with some of the European Soccer leagues have gotten going.  I thought NASCAR put together a pretty decent template with pit crews and PPE.  The bigger issue that the NBA, NHL, and MLB probably will have is finding a state/states that are willing to host them like NASCAR did.  While that might be possible out East in some states like Florida I couldn't fathom California being okay with sports right now. 

I think part of the problem is at what price are the players willing to come back - both salary wise and isolation wise.

Perhaps, if I recall correctly the NFL by comparison tends to hold more sway over it's players since the contracts aren't guaranteed.  I haven't looked into collective bargaining in the other three leagues in a long time but I believe that the players tend to be in far stronger positions than their NFL counterparts.  So far it really only seems to be the NFL out of the four mainstream American sports that has been serious about playing this year (which is evidenced by the schedule being released recently).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:27:58 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 26, 2020, 11:25:40 AM
The first 5 NASCAR Cup races are no farther than 150 miles from the teams shops in Charlotte (2 Darlington races, 2 Charlotte races, 1 Bristol race).  The Michigan race on June 7th will be the first race where the teams will have to travel a significant distance from their race shops.

Yes, that was what I referring to when I said that they got buy in from a handful of states.  The stance that NASCAR took was that the teams don't get paid unless they race.  NASCAR has traditionally had no real employee collectiveness and only had one real push for a driver's union. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 26, 2020, 12:26:21 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 25, 2020, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 25, 2020, 10:05:44 PM
I'm not so sure some of the measures taken made much of a difference.  Some states never fully shut down and had fatality rates well below states that did shut completely down.

That's a unfair comparison.  There's 6 counties in NJ that have a higher population than all of Wyoming.  New York City - just the city - has a higher population than 38 states.  So of course there should be states that fared better than others with fewer restrictions...because the restrictions wouldn't make any sense relative to their mostly rural populations..

During this whole thing, I made a comparison to New York City based on a bordering county to the one I live in that covers slightly more area than NYC.

NYC land area: 302.6 square miles
NYC population (2019): 8,336,817

Benzie County land area: 320 square miles (smallest county in Michigan by land area)
Benzie County population (2018): 17,753
Benzie County, last I heard, has a confirmed COVID-19 caseload in the single digits, and I think most of them have recovered by now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 01:22:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
Perhaps, if I recall correctly the NFL by comparison tends to hold more sway over it's players since the contracts aren't guaranteed.  I haven't looked into collective bargaining in the other three leagues in a long time but I believe that the players tend to be in far stronger positions than their NFL counterparts.  So far it really only seems to be the NFL out of the four mainstream American sports that has been serious about playing this year (which is evidenced by the schedule being released recently).

The NFL schedule is often released in April.  The NBA and NHL schedules are often released in June.  It's not that the other leagues aren't serious about playing next year; they normally haven't released their schedules by this time anyway.

The NBA and NHL, along with MLB, are still trying to figure out how to finish their current seasons - they need to do it fairly, and are trying to do with it minimal travel.  There's another issue as well...without fans in the stands, it takes away a large source of income which is needed to pay the players, pay all the employees, and pay the arenas and parks they play in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on May 26, 2020, 01:30:27 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 26, 2020, 11:25:40 AM
The first 5 NASCAR Cup races are no farther than 150 miles from the teams shops in Charlotte (2 Darlington races, 2 Charlotte races, 1 Bristol race).  The Atlanta race on June 7th will be the first race where the teams will have to travel a significant distance from their race shops. 

FTFY.  Rumors are that the August weekend in Michigan will be a doubleheader if they get to race there.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 01:43:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 10:48:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.

The biggest factor in media today that is different than at any other point in time is that regular people are part of in the form of social media platform.  Think about all the theories and conjecture that spawn from even the smallest media sensation, that absolutely carries some real world impact.  In cases like COVID-19 there wasn't many known facts early on so the internet got to work on coming up with their own theories, that doesn't usually bode well in terms not starting panics.  This thread itself is kind of a perfect example of said phenomenon. 

Either way this whole experience with COVID-19 will probably be really interesting retroactively.  It seems that this was the first really serious effort by society as a whole to control the spread of a pandemic that had some relative uniformity to it. 

Speaking of the NBA, man I'm really surprised they haven't resumed play with some of the European Soccer leagues have gotten going.  I thought NASCAR put together a pretty decent template with pit crews and PPE.  The bigger issue that the NBA, NHL, and MLB probably will have is finding a state/states that are willing to host them like NASCAR did.  While that might be possible out East in some states like Florida I couldn't fathom California being okay with sports right now. 

I think part of the problem is at what price are the players willing to come back - both salary wise and isolation wise.

Perhaps, if I recall correctly the NFL by comparison tends to hold more sway over it's players since the contracts aren't guaranteed.  I haven't looked into collective bargaining in the other three leagues in a long time but I believe that the players tend to be in far stronger positions than their NFL counterparts.  So far it really only seems to be the NFL out of the four mainstream American sports that has been serious about playing this year (which is evidenced by the schedule being released recently).


The NFL contract with the players association has no give-back provision should the league season be shortened though.  In other words, if the NFL has a season that even lasts one game, they would have to pay the contracts for players they do not want to cut.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TravelingBethelite on May 26, 2020, 02:16:18 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 26, 2020, 12:26:21 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 25, 2020, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: Brandon on May 25, 2020, 10:05:44 PM
I'm not so sure some of the measures taken made much of a difference.  Some states never fully shut down and had fatality rates well below states that did shut completely down.

That's a unfair comparison.  There's 6 counties in NJ that have a higher population than all of Wyoming.  New York City - just the city - has a higher population than 38 states.  So of course there should be states that fared better than others with fewer restrictions...because the restrictions wouldn't make any sense relative to their mostly rural populations..

During this whole thing, I made a comparison to New York City based on a bordering county to the one I live in that covers slightly more area than NYC.

NYC land area: 302.6 square miles
NYC population (2019): 8,336,817

Benzie County land area: 320 square miles (smallest county in Michigan by land area)
Benzie County population (2018): 17,753
Benzie County, last I heard, has a confirmed COVID-19 caseload in the single digits, and I think most of them have recovered by now.

What point are you trying to make? New York City is one of the most densely packed cities in the world. Naturally anything that spreads virally is going to do so much faster in such an environment versus a much sparser area like Benzie County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 02:57:42 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 01:43:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 10:48:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.

The biggest factor in media today that is different than at any other point in time is that regular people are part of in the form of social media platform.  Think about all the theories and conjecture that spawn from even the smallest media sensation, that absolutely carries some real world impact.  In cases like COVID-19 there wasn't many known facts early on so the internet got to work on coming up with their own theories, that doesn't usually bode well in terms not starting panics.  This thread itself is kind of a perfect example of said phenomenon. 

Either way this whole experience with COVID-19 will probably be really interesting retroactively.  It seems that this was the first really serious effort by society as a whole to control the spread of a pandemic that had some relative uniformity to it. 

Speaking of the NBA, man I'm really surprised they haven't resumed play with some of the European Soccer leagues have gotten going.  I thought NASCAR put together a pretty decent template with pit crews and PPE.  The bigger issue that the NBA, NHL, and MLB probably will have is finding a state/states that are willing to host them like NASCAR did.  While that might be possible out East in some states like Florida I couldn't fathom California being okay with sports right now. 

I think part of the problem is at what price are the players willing to come back - both salary wise and isolation wise.

Perhaps, if I recall correctly the NFL by comparison tends to hold more sway over it's players since the contracts aren't guaranteed.  I haven't looked into collective bargaining in the other three leagues in a long time but I believe that the players tend to be in far stronger positions than their NFL counterparts.  So far it really only seems to be the NFL out of the four mainstream American sports that has been serious about playing this year (which is evidenced by the schedule being released recently).


The NFL contract with the players association has no give-back provision should the league season be shortened though.  In other words, if the NFL has a season that even lasts one game, they would have to pay the contracts for players they do not want to cut.

But they do have that incentive to play though as that needs to actually happen for them to get paid.  Does that actually hold true in the other sports league or do they get paid anyways?   The NBA and NHL certainly would have some pay given their seasons were half over when they shut down.  Do MLB players get paid anyways, some, or not at all if there isn't a season? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 03:15:16 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 02:57:42 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 01:43:59 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 26, 2020, 10:48:16 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
Quote
Quote

Regarding the 1968 pandemic it probably wasn't something that was big enough to overshadow the other news events domestically at the time such as Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement.   It might be just my observation but it feels like the further back in time you go the more accepting generations tended to be that disease and death by it was just a part of life.  The modern 24/7 news cycle probably plays a much bigger factor than in why so much panic started with the current pandemic. 


I really doubt that's the case.  Things got shut down very severely in China and large parts of Italy as horror stories were coming out of those locations about hospitals being overrun, dealth toll, etc.  That had nothing to do with the 24/7 news cycle.

So when things started getting real bad in New York, and an NBA player contracted the virus and the NBA shut down its season, it made perfect sense for the US to follow the path of Italy and a good portion of Europe in shutting things down.

Regarding the 24/7 news cycle, I do believe that to an extent.  And it goes far beyond the CNNs and FOX News' of the world.  As people can post on social media, and much of that it opinion stated as fact, and much of that is posted by friends and friends of friends that supports their views, it just constantly encourages people to dig in even further on their believes and views.

It made perfect sense for the US to shut down, because if we didn't, we would've looked like some outcasts.  We *had* to shut down almost to save face.  And yet, some people think we should've shut down earlier, and some think we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did.

That's what makes this such a tough decision - no matter what, the majority of the people believe it was done wrong.  Even if 1/3 believe we should've shut down earlier, 1/3 believe we shouldn't have shut down to the extent we did, and 1/3 believe we did it the right way, that means 2/3rds of the population disagreed with what we did.

The biggest factor in media today that is different than at any other point in time is that regular people are part of in the form of social media platform.  Think about all the theories and conjecture that spawn from even the smallest media sensation, that absolutely carries some real world impact.  In cases like COVID-19 there wasn't many known facts early on so the internet got to work on coming up with their own theories, that doesn't usually bode well in terms not starting panics.  This thread itself is kind of a perfect example of said phenomenon. 

Either way this whole experience with COVID-19 will probably be really interesting retroactively.  It seems that this was the first really serious effort by society as a whole to control the spread of a pandemic that had some relative uniformity to it. 

Speaking of the NBA, man I'm really surprised they haven't resumed play with some of the European Soccer leagues have gotten going.  I thought NASCAR put together a pretty decent template with pit crews and PPE.  The bigger issue that the NBA, NHL, and MLB probably will have is finding a state/states that are willing to host them like NASCAR did.  While that might be possible out East in some states like Florida I couldn't fathom California being okay with sports right now. 

I think part of the problem is at what price are the players willing to come back - both salary wise and isolation wise.

Perhaps, if I recall correctly the NFL by comparison tends to hold more sway over it's players since the contracts aren't guaranteed.  I haven't looked into collective bargaining in the other three leagues in a long time but I believe that the players tend to be in far stronger positions than their NFL counterparts.  So far it really only seems to be the NFL out of the four mainstream American sports that has been serious about playing this year (which is evidenced by the schedule being released recently).


The NFL contract with the players association has no give-back provision should the league season be shortened though.  In other words, if the NFL has a season that even lasts one game, they would have to pay the contracts for players they do not want to cut.

But they do have that incentive to play though as that needs to actually happen for them to get paid.  Does that actually hold true in the other sports league or do they get paid anyways?   The NBA and NHL certainly would have some pay given their seasons were half over when they shut down.  Do MLB players get paid anyways, some, or not at all if there isn't a season? 



MLB players agreed to a pro-rated salary based on the number of games played.  However owners are asking for more right now as they will lose more money without any paid attendance.  That is where negotiations are right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 03:18:25 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 26, 2020, 01:22:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
Perhaps, if I recall correctly the NFL by comparison tends to hold more sway over it's players since the contracts aren't guaranteed.  I haven't looked into collective bargaining in the other three leagues in a long time but I believe that the players tend to be in far stronger positions than their NFL counterparts.  So far it really only seems to be the NFL out of the four mainstream American sports that has been serious about playing this year (which is evidenced by the schedule being released recently).

The NFL schedule is often released in April.  The NBA and NHL schedules are often released in June.  It's not that the other leagues aren't serious about playing next year; they normally haven't released their schedules by this time anyway.

The NBA and NHL, along with MLB, are still trying to figure out how to finish their current seasons - they need to do it fairly, and are trying to do with it minimal travel.  There's another issue as well...without fans in the stands, it takes away a large source of income which is needed to pay the players, pay all the employees, and pay the arenas and parks they play in.

I know that I'm hugely oversimplifying but isn't TV revenue the main source of incomes for most leagues these days?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 05:16:20 PM
Barbershops can reopen in 47 California counties:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/california-to-allow-hair-salons-and-barbershops-to-reopen-in-majority-of-states-counties-gov-newsom-says.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:38 PM
My semi annual teeth cleaning for tomorrow ended up being cancelled.  Not that I'm shocked but it is kind of long in the game for cancellations since so many dentists have long since reopened.  One of my employees is going to the dentist this week and ended up getting a health screen call.  Apparently the big thing they wanted to know was if she had traveled outside the "local area."    Apparently the local area was the cited of Lemoore and Hanford which are both kind of back water.  She answered no and they confirmed the appointment anyways.  Is that now a thing with Doctor's visits and for stuff like dentistry?...or has it become common?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 26, 2020, 11:30:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:38 PM
My semi annual teeth cleaning for tomorrow ended up being cancelled.  Not that I'm shocked but it is kind of long in the game for cancellations since so many dentists have long since reopened.  One of my employees is going to the dentist this week and ended up getting a health screen call.  Apparently the big thing they wanted to know was if she had traveled outside the "local area."    Apparently the local area was the cited of Lemoore and Hanford which are both kind of back water.  She answered no and they confirmed the appointment anyways.  Is that now a thing with Doctor's visits and for stuff like dentistry?...or has it become common?
The cancellation might be as much to deal with more emergent cases that have had to wait since mid-March. In Michigan, dentists finally get to open up statewide for non-emergency appointments this week. Nice to see that 47 of 58 counties in CA will allow hair salons and barbershops to reopen (including Sacramento, Fresno, San Diego, and SoCal outside of Los Angeles County), while Michigan has to wait until at least June 15 (and possibly even longer in Metro Detroit) for hair salons and barbershops to reopen, even in the rural parts of the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 11:53:47 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on May 26, 2020, 11:30:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 26, 2020, 09:53:38 PM
My semi annual teeth cleaning for tomorrow ended up being cancelled.  Not that I'm shocked but it is kind of long in the game for cancellations since so many dentists have long since reopened.  One of my employees is going to the dentist this week and ended up getting a health screen call.  Apparently the big thing they wanted to know was if she had traveled outside the "local area."    Apparently the local area was the cited of Lemoore and Hanford which are both kind of back water.  She answered no and they confirmed the appointment anyways.  Is that now a thing with Doctor's visits and for stuff like dentistry?...or has it become common?
The cancellation might be as much to deal with more emergent cases that have had to wait since mid-March. In Michigan, dentists finally get to open up statewide for non-emergency appointments this week. Nice to see that 47 of 58 counties in CA will allow hair salons and barbershops to reopen (including Sacramento, Fresno, San Diego, and SoCal outside of Los Angeles County), while Michigan has to wait until at least June 15 (and possibly even longer in Metro Detroit) for hair salons and barbershops to reopen, even in the rural parts of the state.

They added a note that they would try to reschedule for June, so we'll see what happens.  I'm kind of curious to find out what will happen if they do a screen and I tell them I live in Fresno...since they are in Hanford.

Regarding the haircuts, I actually managed a trim with my wife helping out.  My hair cut is just a simple 4 and 2 on the sides, so it wasn't something that could be totally botched starting with the 4.  I'm not sure when or if my barber shop will open back up since it has to abide by far greater restrictions than the general populace does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 27, 2020, 03:03:06 AM
My January dental exam/cleaning has been on hold after several attempts. Got sick the first time and postponed to a date that was just a day after the voluntary early shutdown (because of a COVID outbreak at the same clinic building). Now the backlog for appointments means I can't get anything until maybe September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 27, 2020, 08:58:42 AM
My dentist texted that they are reopening June 1.  I wonder how long it will be before I can fit in my cancelled cleaning appt.

Still haven't heard from my eye doctor - the last they said is that they'd call when it was time to reschedule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on May 27, 2020, 12:50:41 PM
For those discussing masks earlier, here's the New England Journal of Medicine on the subject:

Universal Masking in Hospitals in the Covid-19 Era (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372?fbclid=IwAR1EoJkVn0xxmfBb6RNhasEb2XXM6E2Lr-p7YOMrvMFl9iMBwKPQLl96lIo)

QuoteAs the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to explode, hospital systems are scrambling to intensify their measures for protecting patients and health care workers from the virus. An increasing number of frontline providers are wondering whether this effort should include universal use of masks by all health care workers. Universal masking is already standard practice in Hong Kong, Singapore, and other parts of Asia and has recently been adopted by a handful of U.S. hospitals.
We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.

QuoteThe calculus may be different, however, in health care settings. First and foremost, a mask is a core component of the personal protective equipment (PPE) clinicians need when caring for symptomatic patients with respiratory viral infections, in conjunction with gown, gloves, and eye protection. Masking in this context is already part of routine operations for most hospitals.

QuoteIt is also clear that masks serve symbolic roles. Masks are not only tools, they are also talismans that may help increase health care workers' perceived sense of safety, well-being, and trust in their hospitals. Although such reactions may not be strictly logical, we are all subject to fear and anxiety, especially during times of crisis. One might argue that fear and anxiety are better countered with data and education than with a marginally beneficial mask, particularly in light of the worldwide mask shortage, but it is difficult to get clinicians to hear this message in the heat of the current crisis. Expanded masking protocols' greatest contribution may be to reduce the transmission of anxiety, over and above whatever role they may play in reducing transmission of Covid-19. The potential value of universal masking in giving health care workers the confidence to absorb and implement the more foundational infection-prevention practices described above may be its greatest contribution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on May 27, 2020, 01:30:14 PM
Well, the 100,000 death mark hit sooner than I thought it would.

https://a.msn.com/r/2/BB14FYKn?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2020, 01:32:47 PM
Of note; my own workplace follows the 10 minute rule for exposure on contact tracing in regards to a confirmed COVID-19 case.  Apparently I need to go back, review footage, and determine all the people who would be within contact of a person who tested positive in the hypothetical scenario of a employee coming back positive.   That 10 minutes doesn't factor in if anyone is wearing masks or not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on May 27, 2020, 01:35:44 PM
The NEJM article reinforces what has been said.  A mask does not protect the wearer, absent the other PPE that hospital workers wear.  But it does provide at least some protection to others, particularly if the person with the mask is asymptomatic or has unrecognized symptoms.  That protection is most important the closer the people are to each other, and the longer they spend time together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 27, 2020, 02:00:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2020, 01:32:47 PM
Of note; my own workplace follows the 10 minute rule for exposure on contact tracing in regards to a confirmed COVID-19 case.  Apparently I need to go back, review footage, and determine all the people who would be within contact of a person who tested positive in the hypothetical scenario of a employee coming back positive.   That 10 minutes doesn't factor in if anyone is wearing masks or not.
Need to formalize the rules. If mask was indeed used, then questions come - was it properly worn? What kind of mask? Did it have exhaust valve?
Since we're not talking criminal conviction, there is no need to go "beyond reasonable doubt", so strong enough indication may be it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 27, 2020, 02:08:40 PM
Quote from: GaryV on May 27, 2020, 01:35:44 PM
The NEJM article reinforces what has been said.  A mask does not protect the wearer, absent the other PPE that hospital workers wear.  But it does provide at least some protection to others, particularly if the person with the mask is asymptomatic or has unrecognized symptoms.  That protection is most important the closer the people are to each other, and the longer they spend time together.
Paper doesn't present any factual evidence, though. Overall, it is just a policy proposal and explanation, not a research paper
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 27, 2020, 02:28:11 PM
I thought the map on page 9 of this study (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf) was an interesting look at which states have the virus under control and which don't.  I had been considering a cross-country trip for late summer/fall if things started to open up and my job isn't impacted by NY's economic problems, but that large swath of red in the rust belt made me change my mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2020, 02:28:38 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 27, 2020, 02:00:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2020, 01:32:47 PM
Of note; my own workplace follows the 10 minute rule for exposure on contact tracing in regards to a confirmed COVID-19 case.  Apparently I need to go back, review footage, and determine all the people who would be within contact of a person who tested positive in the hypothetical scenario of a employee coming back positive.   That 10 minutes doesn't factor in if anyone is wearing masks or not.
Need to formalize the rules. If mask was indeed used, then questions come - was it properly worn? What kind of mask? Did it have exhaust valve?
Since we're not talking criminal conviction, there is no need to go "beyond reasonable doubt", so strong enough indication may be it.

Hell, I haven't even seen a clear answer on what I'm supposed to do with those people that were  in that 10 minute contact window.  I'm assuming that they are supposed to 14 days self quarantine but I haven't gotten an answer when I asked the question.  We have clear rules for pretty much everything else such as when someone calls out for not feeling good or scans with a high temperature.  I'm just hoping it's a bridge that doesn't need to be crossed ultimately. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 27, 2020, 02:38:30 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 04:26:59 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 23, 2020, 07:50:38 AM
Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.

Yep. Washington has had drive-thru or online church services since March (https://www.heraldnet.com/news/churches-rethink-services-in-light-of-coronavirus/). There's plenty of evidence that regular church routines (singing, close socializing, eating together) spread the virus, to deadly effect.

Ah.  So people are still perfectly free to practice their religion–just so long as their religion doesn't include any practices you disagree with, such as corporate prayer and singing, socializing, shared meals...  Essentially, this means they're free to engage in some of their religious practices, but not free to engage in others.  Just because religious communities are still engaging in religious practices, that doesn't mean their religious practice as a whole is still continuing.  And just because one religion is able to continue its practices without gathering corporately, that doesn't mean all religions are also able.

As an example, Holy Communion cannot be separated from an Orthodox Christian's religion.  Take away the ability to gather corporately for the Eucharist, and you take away the central act of their religion.

Quote from: Orthodox Church in America:  "The Orthodox Faith – Vol. II - Worship – The Sacraments
Holy Eucharist

The Holy Eucharist is called the "sacrament of sacraments"  in the Orthodox tradition. It is also called the "sacrament of the Church."  The eucharist is the center of the Church's life. Everything in the Church leads to the eucharist, and all things flow from it. It is the completion of all of the Church's sacraments–the source and the goal of all of the Church's doctrines and institutions.

[...]

As a word, the term eucharist means thanksgiving. This name is given to the sacred meal-not only to the elements of bread and wine, but to the whole act of gathering, praying, reading the Holy Scriptures and proclaiming God's Word, remembering Christ and eating and drinking his Body and Blood in communion with him and with God the Father, by the Holy Spirit. The word eucharist is used because the all-embracing meaning of the Lord's Banquet is that of thanksgiving to God in Christ and the Holy Spirit for all that he has done in making, saving and glorifying the world.

The sacrament of the eucharist is also called holy communion since it is the mystical communion of men with God, with each other, and with all men and all things in him through Christ and the Spirit. The eucharistic liturgy is celebrated in the Church every Sunday, the Day of the Lord, as well as on feast days.

[...]

Thus, by eating and drinking the bread and wine which are mystically consecrated by the Holy Spirit, we have genuine communion with God through Christ who is himself "the bread of life"  (Jn 6.34, 41).

[...]
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 27, 2020, 02:40:35 PM
Apparently Ford Interceptor patrol vehicles can be equipped with a software program that raises the temperature of the cabin to 133F for 15 minutes to kill COVID-19.  Amusingly I think my car is probably already at that temperature in the cabin right now since it's 107F outside today:

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/ford-police-interceptor-utility-destroy-153100565.html

I guess that bodes well for race car drivers.  The cabins of some of those stock cars are definitely near that level of heat on warm days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 27, 2020, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 27, 2020, 02:28:11 PM
I thought the map on page 9 of this study (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf) was an interesting look at which states have the virus under control and which don't.  I had been considering a cross-country trip for late summer/fall if things started to open up and my job isn't impacted by NY's economic problems, but that large swath of red in the rust belt made me change my mind.

Very interesting paper.  They estimate that about 4% of the population has had the virus and that there is "no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over".  Many experts say that herd immunity will be reached at 60%.  Does that mean things are going to get over 10X worse from here?  Instead of 100k deaths there will be over one million deaths?  Nationally we've reached a point where there are fewer than 1,000 COVID deaths per day.  At that rate it will take over 900 days (2 1/2 years) to reach 1 million deaths in this country.  I guess my point is at this rate, we will never reach herd immunity because the rate of infection is so slow.  And are we really expecting to see 60% herd immunity in a rural county in Texas vs Cook County in Illinois?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 03:30:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 27, 2020, 02:38:30 PM
Quote from: Bruce on May 23, 2020, 04:26:59 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 23, 2020, 07:50:38 AM
Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.

Yep. Washington has had drive-thru or online church services since March (https://www.heraldnet.com/news/churches-rethink-services-in-light-of-coronavirus/). There's plenty of evidence that regular church routines (singing, close socializing, eating together) spread the virus, to deadly effect.

Ah.  So people are still perfectly free to practice their religion–just so long as their religion doesn't include any practices you disagree with, such as corporate prayer and singing, socializing, shared meals...  Essentially, this means they're free to engage in some of their religious practices, but not free to engage in others.  Just because religious communities are still engaging in religious practices, that doesn't mean their religious practice as a whole is still continuing.  And just because one religion is able to continue its practices without gathering corporately, that doesn't mean all religions are also able.

As an example, Holy Communion cannot be separated from an Orthodox Christian's religion.  Take away the ability to gather corporately for the Eucharist, and you take away the central act of their religion.

Quote from: Orthodox Church in America:  "The Orthodox Faith – Vol. II - Worship – The Sacraments
Holy Eucharist

The Holy Eucharist is called the "sacrament of sacraments"  in the Orthodox tradition. It is also called the "sacrament of the Church."  The eucharist is the center of the Church's life. Everything in the Church leads to the eucharist, and all things flow from it. It is the completion of all of the Church's sacraments–the source and the goal of all of the Church's doctrines and institutions.

[...]

As a word, the term eucharist means thanksgiving. This name is given to the sacred meal-not only to the elements of bread and wine, but to the whole act of gathering, praying, reading the Holy Scriptures and proclaiming God's Word, remembering Christ and eating and drinking his Body and Blood in communion with him and with God the Father, by the Holy Spirit. The word eucharist is used because the all-embracing meaning of the Lord's Banquet is that of thanksgiving to God in Christ and the Holy Spirit for all that he has done in making, saving and glorifying the world.

The sacrament of the eucharist is also called holy communion since it is the mystical communion of men with God, with each other, and with all men and all things in him through Christ and the Spirit. The eucharistic liturgy is celebrated in the Church every Sunday, the Day of the Lord, as well as on feast days.

[...]

Thus, by eating and drinking the bread and wine which are mystically consecrated by the Holy Spirit, we have genuine communion with God through Christ who is himself "the bread of life"  (Jn 6.34, 41).

[...]


Interesting since most (all?) Orthodox churches in the United States directed their parishes to close regardless of the state and local orders in place.  The Orthodox Church in America has put together a phased plan for reopening and provided a bunch of resources to parishes about how to conduct their services remotely.

Not one bit of communication urging state or local authorities to "open up" and allow them to worship freely.

https://www.oca.org/resources-coronavirus

So I guess they largely have the same view.  Church continues even if buildings are closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 27, 2020, 03:35:06 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 27, 2020, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 27, 2020, 02:28:11 PM
I thought the map on page 9 of this study (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf) was an interesting look at which states have the virus under control and which don't.  I had been considering a cross-country trip for late summer/fall if things started to open up and my job isn't impacted by NY's economic problems, but that large swath of red in the rust belt made me change my mind.

Very interesting paper.  They estimate that about 4% of the population has had the virus and that there is "no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over".  Many experts say that herd immunity will be reached at 60%.  Does that mean things are going to get over 10X worse from here?  Instead of 100k deaths there will be over one million deaths?  Nationally we've reached a point where there are fewer than 1,000 COVID deaths per day.  At that rate it will take over 900 days (2 1/2 years) to reach 1 million deaths in this country.  I guess my point is at this rate, we will never reach herd immunity because the rate of infection is so slow.  And are we really expecting to see 60% herd immunity in a rural county in Texas vs Cook County in Illinois?

We don't want to reach herd immunity. If we wanted to reach herd immunity we'd have all gone out and coughed all over each other the first day we found out about this and we'd have reached herd immunity long ago.

The purpose of the stay at home orders and the physical distancing and the wearing masks is to prevent us from reaching herd immunity before we have a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 27, 2020, 04:14:03 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 27, 2020, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 27, 2020, 02:28:11 PM
I thought the map on page 9 of this study (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf) was an interesting look at which states have the virus under control and which don't.  I had been considering a cross-country trip for late summer/fall if things started to open up and my job isn't impacted by NY's economic problems, but that large swath of red in the rust belt made me change my mind.

Very interesting paper.  They estimate that about 4% of the population has had the virus and that there is "no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over".  Many experts say that herd immunity will be reached at 60%.  Does that mean things are going to get over 10X worse from here?  Instead of 100k deaths there will be over one million deaths?  Nationally we've reached a point where there are fewer than 1,000 COVID deaths per day.  At that rate it will take over 900 days (2 1/2 years) to reach 1 million deaths in this country.  I guess my point is at this rate, we will never reach herd immunity because the rate of infection is so slow.  And are we really expecting to see 60% herd immunity in a rural county in Texas vs Cook County in Illinois?
People expect second wave in winter - weather, more relaxed attitude may become factors.
And its a race what comes first - herd immunity or vaccine. I bet on herd immunity. Rural areas would serve as reservoir for flare-ups...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 27, 2020, 04:17:52 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 27, 2020, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: vdeane on May 27, 2020, 02:28:11 PM
I thought the map on page 9 of this study (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf) was an interesting look at which states have the virus under control and which don't.  I had been considering a cross-country trip for late summer/fall if things started to open up and my job isn't impacted by NY's economic problems, but that large swath of red in the rust belt made me change my mind.

Very interesting paper.  They estimate that about 4% of the population has had the virus and that there is "no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over".  Many experts say that herd immunity will be reached at 60%.  Does that mean things are going to get over 10X worse from here?  Instead of 100k deaths there will be over one million deaths?  Nationally we've reached a point where there are fewer than 1,000 COVID deaths per day.  At that rate it will take over 900 days (2 1/2 years) to reach 1 million deaths in this country.  I guess my point is at this rate, we will never reach herd immunity because the rate of infection is so slow.  And are we really expecting to see 60% herd immunity in a rural county in Texas vs Cook County in Illinois?

The hope is that the death and hospitalization is kept reasonably low until a vaccine is found...and then your immunity is found via vaccine and not "the herd".  Key word - and the word that all of these debates center around - is reasonably.  One persons "reasonable" is different from another's.

With 320,000,000 people, 60% infection = 192,000,000 infected.  0.5% mortality rate (we don't know what the true number is) = 960,000 deaths.  That is close to your 900 day number.  The hope is that we can find and distribute a vaccine sooner than 900 days.

And by the way, 60% is not a definitive number.  I've seen reports that the number could be anywhere from 60%-90%.  It's virus-specific.

And that's ignoring people who don't die but end up with permanently-degraded health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 27, 2020, 04:23:17 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 03:30:21 PM
Interesting since most (all?) Orthodox churches in the United States directed their parishes to close regardless of the state and local orders in place.  The Orthodox Church in America has put together a phased plan for reopening and provided a bunch of resources to parishes about how to conduct their services remotely.

Not one bit of communication urging state or local authorities to "open up" and allow them to worship freely.

https://www.oca.org/resources-coronavirus

So I guess they largely have the same view.  Some aspects of Church continues even if buildings are closed.

Edited for accuracy.

In the early days of the virus, back in March, the Orthodox church in Russia had a substantially different outlook.  For example, after church leaders in Saint Petersburg banned members from attending service, leadership in Moscow overruled and demanded that church doors remain open.  I believe it wasn't until April 27 that Cyril, Patriarch of Moscow, finally capitulated and insisted that parishes obey virus-related government orders.

In the very resource link you posted are found the words "And yet, many of us were deprived of the opportunity ... even to enter the temple in order to sing: Bless God in the congregations, the Lord, O you who are of Israel's fountain. (Psalm 68:26) ... Indeed, with you, the Holy Synod of Bishops longs for the full opening of our churches, missions, monasteries, and seminaries so that we all might return to the fullness of our church life ...  we make our way through the spiritual, emotional, and psychological effects of isolation and quarantine."

Religious life isn't simply "continuing".  It's limping.  The fact that there are resources out there to help congregations doesn't negate that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 05:15:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 27, 2020, 04:23:17 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 03:30:21 PM
Interesting since most (all?) Orthodox churches in the United States directed their parishes to close regardless of the state and local orders in place.  The Orthodox Church in America has put together a phased plan for reopening and provided a bunch of resources to parishes about how to conduct their services remotely.

Not one bit of communication urging state or local authorities to "open up" and allow them to worship freely.

https://www.oca.org/resources-coronavirus

So I guess they largely have the same view.  Church continues even if buildings are closed.

Edited for accuracy.

In the early days of the virus, back in March, the Orthodox church in Russia had a substantially different outlook.  For example, after church leaders in Saint Petersburg banned members from attending service, leadership in Moscow overruled and demanded that church doors remain open.  I believe it wasn't until April 27 that Cyril, Patriarch of Moscow, finally capitulated and insisted that parishes obey virus-related government orders.

In the very resource link you posted are found the words "And yet, many of us were deprived of the opportunity ... even to enter the temple in order to sing: Bless God in the congregations, the Lord, O you who are of Israel's fountain. (Psalm 68:26) ... Indeed, with you, the Holy Synod of Bishops longs for the full opening of our churches, missions, monasteries, and seminaries so that we all might return to the fullness of our church life ...  we make our way through the spiritual, emotional, and psychological effects of isolation and quarantine."

Religious life isn't simply "continuing".  It's limping.  The fact that there are resources out there to help congregations doesn't negate that.


Editing my quote back because Church indeed continues

Yes of course they are being deprived of the ability to worship - because of the virus.  They aren't blaming some sort of governmental edict.  The fact is that the government can take reasonable steps to limit worship, and many denominations are supportive of that.  Including the Orthodox church even though Sunday worship with the eucharist is important to them.

Because they actually care about their members.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 05:15:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 27, 2020, 04:23:17 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 03:30:21 PM
Interesting since most (all?) Orthodox churches in the United States directed their parishes to close regardless of the state and local orders in place.  The Orthodox Church in America has put together a phased plan for reopening and provided a bunch of resources to parishes about how to conduct their services remotely.

Not one bit of communication urging state or local authorities to "open up" and allow them to worship freely.

https://www.oca.org/resources-coronavirus

So I guess they largely have the same view.  Church continues even if buildings are closed.

Edited for accuracy.

In the early days of the virus, back in March, the Orthodox church in Russia had a substantially different outlook.  For example, after church leaders in Saint Petersburg banned members from attending service, leadership in Moscow overruled and demanded that church doors remain open.  I believe it wasn't until April 27 that Cyril, Patriarch of Moscow, finally capitulated and insisted that parishes obey virus-related government orders.

In the very resource link you posted are found the words "And yet, many of us were deprived of the opportunity ... even to enter the temple in order to sing: Bless God in the congregations, the Lord, O you who are of Israel's fountain. (Psalm 68:26) ... Indeed, with you, the Holy Synod of Bishops longs for the full opening of our churches, missions, monasteries, and seminaries so that we all might return to the fullness of our church life ...  we make our way through the spiritual, emotional, and psychological effects of isolation and quarantine."

Religious life isn't simply "continuing".  It's limping.  The fact that there are resources out there to help congregations doesn't negate that.


Editing my quote back because Church indeed continues

Yes of course they are being deprived of the ability to worship - because of the virus.  They aren't blaming some sort of governmental edict.  The fact is that the government can take reasonable steps to limit worship, and many denominations are supportive of that.  Including the Orthodox church even though Sunday worship with the eucharist is important to them.

Because they actually care about their members.
My church's pastor said that he's doesn't think that we will go back to in person service this year. Many churches just want people to donate money to them, which can't really happen as much at home online.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Stephane Dumas on May 28, 2020, 07:49:29 AM
Singer Ray Stevens posted a song about quarentine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtjceaknzHQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 12:52:04 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 05:15:40 PM
Editing my quote back because Church indeed continues

Yes of course they are being deprived of the ability to worship - because of the virus.  They aren't blaming some sort of governmental edict.  The fact is that the government can take reasonable steps to limit worship, and many denominations are supportive of that.  Including the Orthodox church even though Sunday worship with the eucharist is important to them.

Because they actually care about their members.

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM
My church's pastor said that he's doesn't think that we will go back to in person service this year. Many churches just want people to donate money to them, which can't really happen as much at home online.

Our in-home small group is starting up again this coming Sunday, and our church plans to resume corporate worship in four weeks.  The first full band rehearsal was yesterday.

Apparently that's because we don't care about our members.   :rolleyes:

Not all churches are set up for online anything.  In order to make sermons available for watching at home, a congregation has to have...
- the equipment necessary for recording
- someone who is willing and able and has the time to do the recording each week, typically for free
- video editing software
- someone who is willing and able and has the time to post-edit the video each week, typically for free
- someone who knows how to host the final product online, preferably across multiple platforms
- members who have internet access and know how to use it

My home congregation is fortunate enough that, of the four people knowledgeable enough to make this happen, two are on staff, one isn't working every week during the virus, and one has flexible hours and a very light work load during the virus.  It was a learning curve, but that curve went fairly quickly for us.  However, I know specifically of members who don't even have a computer, let alone internet access.  For them, church most certainly is not "indeed continuing":  it completely stopped for them nine weeks ago.  A few weeks ago, while cleaning another member's picture window, my wife and I realized she had no idea how to find the sermons online.  If we hadn't been there and asked about it, she would be disconnected as well.

A lot of congregations don't have the equipment, know-how, and/or people to even make this stuff available in the first place.  My parents' congregation, for example, had already been posting audio-only files of sermons online, but that's as much as they have the ability to do.  Others don't even do that.

But I still have a fundamental problem with saying that religion continues without gathering.  Religion is by nature a corporate thing.  If it weren't, then we wouldn't even have churches, mosques, synagogues, or temples.  Religion is about more than just personal beliefs, reading, and listening.  It's what people do, and it's what they do together.  It's rituals, it's music, it's the things that separate it from mere philosophy.  Just as tennis doesn't continue if you take away the actual game–despite people still being able to train on their own, watch video, work out, etc–neither does religion continue if you take away the worship service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 28, 2020, 12:57:01 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 12:52:04 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 27, 2020, 05:15:40 PM
Editing my quote back because Church indeed continues

Yes of course they are being deprived of the ability to worship - because of the virus.  They aren't blaming some sort of governmental edict.  The fact is that the government can take reasonable steps to limit worship, and many denominations are supportive of that.  Including the Orthodox church even though Sunday worship with the eucharist is important to them.

Because they actually care about their members.

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on May 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM
My church's pastor said that he's doesn't think that we will go back to in person service this year. Many churches just want people to donate money to them, which can't really happen as much at home online.

Our in-home small group is starting up again this coming Sunday, and our church plans to resume corporate worship in four weeks.  The first full band rehearsal was yesterday.

Apparently that's because we don't care about our members.   :rolleyes:

Not all churches are set up for online anything.  In order to make sermons available for watching at home, a congregation has to have...
- the equipment necessary for recording
- someone who is willing and able and has the time to do the recording each week, typically for free
- video editing software
- someone who is willing and able and has the time to post-edit the video each week, typically for free
- someone who knows how to host the final product online, preferably across multiple platforms
- members who have internet access and know how to use it

My home congregation is fortunate enough that, of the four people knowledgeable enough to make this happen, two are on staff, one isn't working every week during the virus, and one has flexible hours and a very light work load during the virus.  It was a learning curve, but that curve went fairly quickly for us.  However, I know specifically of members who don't even have a computer, let alone internet access.  For them, church most certainly is not "indeed continuing":  it completely stopped for them nine weeks ago.  A few weeks ago, while cleaning another member's picture window, my wife and I realized she had no idea how to find the sermons online.  If we hadn't been there and asked about it, she would be disconnected as well.

A lot of congregations don't have the equipment, know-how, and/or people to even make this stuff available in the first place.  My parents' congregation, for example, had already been posting audio-only files of sermons online, but that's as much as they have the ability to do.  Others don't even do that.

But I still have a fundamental problem with saying that religion continues without gathering.  Religion is by nature a corporate thing.  If it weren't, then we wouldn't even have churches, mosques, synagogues, or temples.  Religion is about more than just personal beliefs, reading, and listening.  It's what people do, and it's what they do together.  It's rituals, it's music, it's the things that separate it from mere philosophy.  Just as tennis doesn't continue if you take away the actual game–despite people still being able to train on their own, watch video, work out, etc–neither does religion continue if you take away the worship service.


Very limiting view of what a church and religion are.  Pretty sad.

Anyway, I am glad the state and local governments shut your church down for safety reasons.  Someone has to care about your members.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on May 28, 2020, 01:03:23 PM
Regardless of whether or not religion is involved, large gatherings of people simply aren't safe, and with this virus being able to be spread so quickly by asymptomatic carriers, there is a larger public interest beyond individual parishoners willingness to accept a certain level of risk.

Some churches have turned to online services, drive in services, small gatherings, etc, to find a way to continue to practice their religion safely. Others have decided to use their religion as a political weapon because politics are more important to them than actual faith.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on May 28, 2020, 01:50:36 PM
Bad news for the pharmaceutical industry.  A recent survey shows that fifty percent of the population does not intend to get any of their expedited COVID-19 vaccines.

Well at least they made large profits foisting opioids on us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on May 28, 2020, 01:53:25 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 28, 2020, 01:03:23 PM
Regardless of whether or not religion is involved, large gatherings of people simply aren't safe, and with this virus being able to be spread so quickly by asymptomatic carriers, there is a larger public interest beyond individual parishoners willingness to accept a certain level of risk.

Some churches have turned to online services, drive in services, small gatherings, etc, to find a way to continue to practice their religion safely. Others have decided to use their religion as a political weapon because politics are more important to them than actual faith.


https://news.wsiu.org/post/jackson-county-experiences-surge-covid-19-cases?fbclid=IwAR1Ia3z5WIQlFnQwtqapwLRNL5lanV7hL2aWyxVIxtksb7iEnWZySfup904#stream/0

As southern Illinois prepares for Phase 3 of the state's reopening plan, COVID-19 cases in Jackson County are on the rise.

Bart Hagston, administrator of the Jackson county health department, said most of the cases are connected to a local church that has been holding in-person services in defiance of public health orders.

"We have seen an uptick in the number of cases over the last several days. Most of those cases are tied to an outbreak associated with a church in Jackson County,"  he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 02:04:43 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 28, 2020, 12:57:01 PM
Very limiting view of what a church and religion are.  Pretty sad.

Anyway, I am glad the state and local governments shut your church down for safety reasons.  Someone has to care about your members.

Perhaps you've misunderstood my point.  I don't mean by what I've said to limit religion to only those aspects that are external and practiced corporately.  On the contrary, I wholeheartedly agree that religion involves personal faith, devotion, understanding, etc.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say that something devoid of those personal aspects maybe  shouldn't be considered "religion".

But I refuse to accept the opposite just as much:  limiting religion to only those aspects that are internal and practiced personally.  I'm not saying such a spiritual life isn't valid–but that it is something that shouldn't be called "religion".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on May 28, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on May 28, 2020, 01:50:36 PM
Bad news for the pharmaceutical industry.  A recent survey shows that fifty percent of the population does not intend to get any of their expedited COVID-19 vaccines.

Well at least they made large profits foisting opioids on us.
Don't worry, those refusing vaccine will more than make up for lost profits by paying for antivirals. Even at 2-3% hospitalization rate, durgs used in treatment will cost more than what can be made from vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on May 28, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
Our neighborhood just sent around an e-mail saying the pools will not open this year, based on advice from counsel and the liability insurance carrier. While I think ultimately that's the right decision under the circumstances, I'm mildly surprised they reached the decision this soon. The previous announcement had said the pools' opening (which would normally have been this past Saturday, weather permitting) was delayed until at least June 10. I figured they'd delay it again until the end of June and then re-assess.

Gonna be some very disappointed kids in our neighborhood when their parents tell them the news!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 02:37:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 21, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Sweden experient turning out not so good.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC

So compared to their Nordic neighbors, they kept their economy more open, yet have a higher death rate and their economy is no better off. 

Sweden's curve has definitely not been flattened to the same extent as that of its Nordic neighbors.  However, it strikes me as remarkably similar to nearby Poland.

Curious to see if anyone here knows what distinguishes Poland's response from that of, say, Norway.

(https://i.imgur.com/RRfVkOB.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 28, 2020, 03:25:33 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 08:33:46 AM
Countries like Luxembourg, Australia, South Korea, Israel, Austria, and Switzerland have had big outbreaks of the virus but have since contained it.  Countries like Egypt, Pakistan, Mexico, India, Brazil, and Russia are still experiencing near exponential growth of the virus.

(https://i.imgur.com/fsHdp0Z.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Brazil&location=Egypt&location=India&location=Mexico&location=Pakistan&location=Russia&doublingtime=3

(https://i.imgur.com/hchX2ZG.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Australia&location=Austria&location=Israel&location=Luxembourg&location=South+Korea&location=Switzerland&doublingtime=3

Twenty days later and Brazil, Egypt, India, Mexico, and Pakistan are close to that exponential growth curve.  Just recently it looks like Russia may have made a turn for the better.

(https://i.imgur.com/CC0Orb6.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?doublingtime=3&location=Brazil&location=Egypt&location=Mexico&location=Pakistan&location=Russia
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 03:44:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 02:04:43 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 28, 2020, 12:57:01 PM
Very limiting view of what a church and religion are.  Pretty sad.
Anyway, I am glad the state and local governments shut your church down for safety reasons.  Someone has to care about your members.
Perhaps you've misunderstood my point.
I think it was more trolling than anything. "Very limiting view" in response to one of the longer and more detailed posts in this thread and maybe even the entire forum? Tell me another one.

Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 12:52:04 PM
Not all churches are set up for online anything.  In order to make sermons available for watching at home, a congregation has to have...
Not necessarily. They could do a live sermon through Zoom or a similar platform.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 03:51:40 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 03:44:04 PM
Not necessarily. They could do a live sermon through Zoom or a similar platform.

Oh yeah, I suppose that's true.  In fact, I now remember watching a comedy sketch on YouTube recently about Zoom-platform church.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 03:44:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 12:52:04 PM
Not all churches are set up for online anything.  In order to make sermons available for watching at home, a congregation has to have...
Not necessarily. They could do a live sermon through Zoom or a similar platform.

Not low-tech enough for all congregations. In my age group, I know people who don't have Internet access, or smartphones.

For some, the "similar platform" is a low-power FM transmitter broadcasting to drive-in congregants. That requires an FM transmitter; any license required (don't know if there is any); parking lot with room for congregants to park within range of the transmitter; and some other arrangement for congregants who don't have their own cars.

And none of this might work for congregations in densely-populated cities. For example, parking for Sunday services has been a huge issue in the District of Columbia, with persistent problems with suburbanites parking illegally near the church they still attend even after moving out of the city (though perhaps lessened by the suburbanites who can use streaming, etc. to participate in services without leaving home).

Don't assume that there are easy or good solutions to reconciling the right to worship with public health needs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:15:02 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
For some, the "similar platform" is a low-power FM transmitter broadcasting to drive-in congregants. That requires an FM transmitter; any license required (don't know if there is any); parking lot with room for congregants to park within range of the transmitter; and some other arrangement for congregants who don't have their own cars.

And none of this might work for congregations in densely-populated cities.

Or in Greenville (MS), where the mayor banned drive-in church services and eight police officers issued $500 tickets to people who refused to leave one last month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 28, 2020, 04:31:00 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on May 28, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
Our neighborhood just sent around an e-mail saying the pools will not open this year, based on advice from counsel and the liability insurance carrier. While I think ultimately that's the right decision under the circumstances, I'm mildly surprised they reached the decision this soon. The previous announcement had said the pools' opening (which would normally have been this past Saturday, weather permitting) was delayed until at least June 10. I figured they'd delay it again until the end of June and then re-assess.

Gonna be some very disappointed kids in our neighborhood when their parents tell them the news!
It might be partially a budget cut (as in the people in charge of maintenance may have been furloughed)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

I know Estes Park (CO) did at the beginning of the month for the downtown district, set to expire June 10.

Quote from: ORDINANCE NO. 07-20
Section 2: Face Coverings Required.

All persons shall wear face coverings at all times when:

b.  outdoors within the boundaries of the Commercial Downtown zoning district, as delineated in the Town of Estes Park Development Code and Official Zoning Map.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:47:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:15:02 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
For some, the "similar platform" is a low-power FM transmitter broadcasting to drive-in congregants. That requires an FM transmitter; any license required (don't know if there is any); parking lot with room for congregants to park within range of the transmitter; and some other arrangement for congregants who don't have their own cars.

And none of this might work for congregations in densely-populated cities.

Or in Greenville (MS), where the mayor banned drive-in church services and eight police officers issued $500 tickets to people who refused to leave one last month.

Is Greenville, or any other jurisdiction, still doing that? They seem to have given up on that nonsense, after intervention by the Justice Department and/or the courts.

But that issue is shooting-fish-in-a-barrel easy. In-person worship issues, not so much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on May 28, 2020, 05:38:59 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on May 28, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
Our neighborhood just sent around an e-mail saying the pools will not open this year, based on advice from counsel and the liability insurance carrier. While I think ultimately that's the right decision under the circumstances, I'm mildly surprised they reached the decision this soon. The previous announcement had said the pools' opening (which would normally have been this past Saturday, weather permitting) was delayed until at least June 10. I figured they'd delay it again until the end of June and then re-assess.

Gonna be some very disappointed kids in our neighborhood when their parents tell them the news!

And here it comes, right on time...liability.  And counsel. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 05:50:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

I know Estes Park (CO) did at the beginning of the month for the downtown district, set to expire June 10.

Quote from: ORDINANCE NO. 07-20
Section 2: Face Coverings Required.

All persons shall wear face coverings at all times when:

b.  outdoors within the boundaries of the Commercial Downtown zoning district, as delineated in the Town of Estes Park Development Code and Official Zoning Map.

Fresno had one but it expired with the City's emergency order on the 26th. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 28, 2020, 06:05:20 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 05:50:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

I know Estes Park (CO) did at the beginning of the month for the downtown district, set to expire June 10.

Quote from: ORDINANCE NO. 07-20
Section 2: Face Coverings Required.

All persons shall wear face coverings at all times when:

b.  outdoors within the boundaries of the Commercial Downtown zoning district, as delineated in the Town of Estes Park Development Code and Official Zoning Map.

Fresno had one but it expired with the City's emergency order on the 26th.

There's no way this was enforceable outdoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:27:38 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

San Francisco is joining this list.  https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak (https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak)

QuoteIn general, you are required to wear something to cover your face when you leave your home.
...
You must wear a face covering when you are:
...
-- Walking outside and you see someone within 30 feet (about the length of a MUNI bus)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:27:49 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 28, 2020, 06:05:20 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 05:50:05 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

I know Estes Park (CO) did at the beginning of the month for the downtown district, set to expire June 10.

Quote from: ORDINANCE NO. 07-20
Section 2: Face Coverings Required.

All persons shall wear face coverings at all times when:

b.  outdoors within the boundaries of the Commercial Downtown zoning district, as delineated in the Town of Estes Park Development Code and Official Zoning Map.

Fresno had one but it expired with the City's emergency order on the 26th.

There's no way this was enforceable outdoors.

Interestingly the mayor admitted that here in Fresno when the mask order was instituted.  During the press conference the mayor went onto say that the police weren't looking for people not wearing masks outside, despite it being mandatory in all public places.   That's kind of how Fresno rolled with their emergency order, they often put enforceable provisions in only to say they "wouldn't really"  even try to.  That probably didn't do the City government many favors since it probably encourages numerous public protests. 

To that end, the only places in the City I've seen instituting mask rules are major retails like Vons or Costco.  Every gas station I've been in since the 26th has taken their mask signage down and my car wash/detailer was just enforcing mask adherence with their own staff.  Meanwhile up in places like Prather and Auberry it's rare to even see anyone even wearing a mask at all.  Fresno County briefly made mask mandatory but changed the language in the first couple days to "recommended."  
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:30:17 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:27:38 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

San Francisco is joining this list.  https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak (https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak)

QuoteIn general, you are required to wear something to cover your face when you leave your home.
...
You must wear a face covering when you are:
...
-- Walking outside and you see someone within 30 feet (about the length of a MUNI bus)

Is that a new order?  I thought SF was already requiring masks...then again I don't follow what they do all that much anymore.  Interesting to see the exercise provision accounted for, that didn't happen here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:35:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:30:17 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:27:38 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

San Francisco is joining this list.  https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak (https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak)

QuoteIn general, you are required to wear something to cover your face when you leave your home.
...
You must wear a face covering when you are:
...
-- Walking outside and you see someone within 30 feet (about the length of a MUNI bus)

Is that a new order?  I thought SF was already requiring masks...then again I don't follow what they do all that much anymore.  Interesting to see the exercise provision accounted for, that didn't happen here. 

According to SFGate (https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/updates-coronavirus-San-Francisco-Bay-Area-15300700.php) it's new (like you I don't pay attention to that city's politics, just happened to be looking at the web site).  (Edit:  Here's the order from the Department of Public Health (https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/files/Order-No-C19-12b-RequiringFaceCoverings-05282020.pdf).)

QuoteLATEST May 28, 3:05 p.m. The City of San Francisco is now requiring that individuals wear masks whenever they leave their homes and interact with people outside their households.

The city previously only required masks in mostly indoor situations, but it now mandates that individuals wear masks when exercising less than 30 feet from others or when passing people on the sidewalk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 28, 2020, 07:49:53 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:35:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:30:17 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:27:38 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

San Francisco is joining this list.  https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak (https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak)

QuoteIn general, you are required to wear something to cover your face when you leave your home.
...
You must wear a face covering when you are:
...
-- Walking outside and you see someone within 30 feet (about the length of a MUNI bus)

Is that a new order?  I thought SF was already requiring masks...then again I don't follow what they do all that much anymore.  Interesting to see the exercise provision accounted for, that didn't happen here. 

According to SFGate (https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/updates-coronavirus-San-Francisco-Bay-Area-15300700.php) it's new (like you I don't pay attention to that city's politics, just happened to be looking at the web site).  (Edit:  Here's the order from the Department of Public Health (https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/files/Order-No-C19-12b-RequiringFaceCoverings-05282020.pdf).)

QuoteLATEST May 28, 3:05 p.m. The City of San Francisco is now requiring that individuals wear masks whenever they leave their homes and interact with people outside their households.

The city previously only required masks in mostly indoor situations, but it now mandates that individuals wear masks when exercising less than 30 feet from others or when passing people on the sidewalk.

Other cities have this, but nobody follows it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:58:35 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 28, 2020, 07:49:53 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:35:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:30:17 PM
Quote from: gonealookin on May 28, 2020, 07:27:38 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

San Francisco is joining this list.  https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak (https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-coronavirus-outbreak)

QuoteIn general, you are required to wear something to cover your face when you leave your home.
...
You must wear a face covering when you are:
...
-- Walking outside and you see someone within 30 feet (about the length of a MUNI bus)

Is that a new order?  I thought SF was already requiring masks...then again I don't follow what they do all that much anymore.  Interesting to see the exercise provision accounted for, that didn't happen here. 

According to SFGate (https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/updates-coronavirus-San-Francisco-Bay-Area-15300700.php) it's new (like you I don't pay attention to that city's politics, just happened to be looking at the web site).  (Edit:  Here's the order from the Department of Public Health (https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/files/Order-No-C19-12b-RequiringFaceCoverings-05282020.pdf).)

QuoteLATEST May 28, 3:05 p.m. The City of San Francisco is now requiring that individuals wear masks whenever they leave their homes and interact with people outside their households.

The city previously only required masks in mostly indoor situations, but it now mandates that individuals wear masks when exercising less than 30 feet from others or when passing people on the sidewalk.

Other cities have this, but nobody follows it.

There is probably a more pretty good chance that there is heavy public support in SF.  The city and really the whole Bay Area tends to best to their own drum on things like this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 28, 2020, 08:08:02 PM
Since there's been so much bad news about this pandemic, maybe it's time to focus on some good news...

* Today, the rate of positive tests in the U.S. is among the lowest it's been since early March.

* The 7-day rolling average of new cases multiplied by the positive rate appears to be the lowest since March 24.

* More states and cities are reopening. I think even hard-hit District of Columbia is reopening.

* More people are out and about - and maskless.

* More beaches are opening.

* Medical breakthroughs are coming as we learn more and more about this virus.

* The IHME model says that by August 1, the prevalence of this virus in the U.S. will be only 1/34th of what it is now.

So many websites try to profit from gloom and scam their supporters. But the next couple months will see more reopenings and a continued steep decline in cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 09:42:46 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 03:44:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 12:52:04 PM
Not all churches are set up for online anything.  In order to make sermons available for watching at home, a congregation has to have...
Not necessarily. They could do a live sermon through Zoom or a similar platform.
Not low-tech enough for all congregations. In my age group, I know people who don't have Internet access, or smartphones.

That's true, although kids and grandkids can often help the older folks with technology. Not having any internet access in this day and age is problematic for many other reasons, not being able to join a zoom meeting being fairly low on the list. I get that it's a reality for some people, and maybe that's potentially something their church should be helping/supporting them with, both practically and financially.

Quote from: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
Don't assume that there are easy or good solutions to reconciling the right to worship with public health needs.

One thing this pandemic has proven, though, is that there are solutions if you're committed to finding them and prepared to think outside the box. Not necessarily easy or good or conventional solutions, but there are ways to make things work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on May 28, 2020, 09:47:10 PM
Bars and nightclubs have been cleared to reopen in Georgia beginning Monday. As I understand it, they'll have to follow a certain set of safety regulations much like those restaurants that have reopened their dining rooms.

I hope it works out, but I'm still skeptical. While the situation here doesn't seem to be obviously getting any worse at the moment, it does appear to no longer be getting any better either. Progress has pretty much stalled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 28, 2020, 09:49:40 PM
Quote from: Eth on May 28, 2020, 09:47:10 PM
Bars and nightclubs have been cleared to reopen in Georgia beginning Monday. As I understand it, they'll have to follow a certain set of safety regulations much like those restaurants that have reopened their dining rooms.

I hope it works out, but I'm still skeptical. While the situation here doesn't seem to be obviously getting any worse at the moment, it does appear to no longer be getting any better either. Progress has pretty much stalled.
Nightclubs aren't even opening in Massachusetts until like phase 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on May 28, 2020, 09:55:09 PM
I think it won't be long before Brazil will be worse off than the US (as in a higher number of cases per capita).

Fun with data: Qatar has nearly 51,000 confirmed cases, but only 33 deaths for a CFR of 0.065%. The actual CFR likely isn't that low, but is likely under 1%. If one were to use Qatar's CFR (or the CFR of the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, or Saudi Arabia, each of which is under 1%) to estimate the total # of cases in each country based on death data, parts of Europe and the US might be flirting with herd immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on May 29, 2020, 07:07:15 AM
^Brazil is already reporting more daily cases than the USA even though Brazil has 120 million fewer people.  On Thursday Brazil reported a record 26,417 new coronavirus cases while America reported 22,658.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on May 29, 2020, 08:00:03 AM
Quote from: jemacedo9 on May 28, 2020, 05:38:59 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on May 28, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
Our neighborhood just sent around an e-mail saying the pools will not open this year, based on advice from counsel and the liability insurance carrier. While I think ultimately that's the right decision under the circumstances, I'm mildly surprised they reached the decision this soon. The previous announcement had said the pools' opening (which would normally have been this past Saturday, weather permitting) was delayed until at least June 10. I figured they'd delay it again until the end of June and then re-assess.

Gonna be some very disappointed kids in our neighborhood when their parents tell them the news!

And here it comes, right on time...liability.  And counsel.


Nah, that doesn't count until the RESIDENTS start with lawsuits claiming theft (of their HOA dues), fraud, and of course that the pools not reopening is inflicting emotional distress.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 29, 2020, 08:52:08 AM
I struck out for the Courtright and Wishon Reservoirs yesterday out in Sierra National Forest.  It seems as though most National Forest campgrounds are closed and there is presently no garbage collection going on.  All the developed toilet facilities were locked up and there wasn't a single trace of anyone from the Forest Service.  The picnics and OHV trails were listed as closed on the NF Interactive Map but didn't have any actual obstruction in field.  Some campers set up their own camp sites along some of the roads and appeared to be fairly entrenched.  PG&E did have their RV and Campground open in Wishon Village.  The impression I got was that the crowds were heavy Memorial Day weekend and the Forest Service essentially shuttered their work force. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: citrus on May 29, 2020, 09:46:39 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:58:35 PM
There is probably a more pretty good chance that there is heavy public support in SF.  The city and really the whole Bay Area tends to best to their own drum on things like this. 

You are right, of course. Pretty much everyone's wearing masks out and about in SF. The update to the public health order about masks made things more restrictive; previously, masks were only required indoors, and waiting in line to go indoors. Most people had 'em outside anyways.

The city also released its reopening plan: https://sf.gov/information/reopening-san-francisco.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 29, 2020, 10:14:57 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 09:42:46 PM
One thing this pandemic has proven, though, is that there are solutions if you're committed to finding them and prepared to think outside the box. Not necessarily easy or good or conventional solutions, but there are ways to make things work.

Overall, I've been very impressed by how well many entities have adapted to the business-from-home model, and also how quickly they were able to implement new practices and tools.  However, I've noticed quite a disparity between some institutions and other comparable ones–most notably a disparity between school districts.

As it relates to the ability of religious groups to continue offering services to their members:  the notion of finding solutions and committing to make them work still assumes there are knowledgeable people within the group who are able and willing to make it happen.  For a lot of congregations, that group of people doesn't include the paid staff, so it means finding members who are able and willing to donate their time–which could range from easy to impossible, depending on the congregation.

Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 09:42:46 PM

Quote from: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
In my age group, I know people who don't have Internet access, or smartphones.

That's true, although kids and grandkids can often help the older folks with technology. Not having any internet access in this day and age is problematic for many other reasons, not being able to join a zoom meeting being fairly low on the list. I get that it's a reality for some people, and maybe that's potentially something their church should be helping/supporting them with, both practically and financially.

It sounds like you're suggesting that religious groups cover the cost of computers and internet subscriptions for members who apparently don't even want them, then commit to training them to use it.  In my frank opinion, even if that were reasonable, those members still wouldn't use it.  You've grown up in a culture in which the internet has been ubiquitous, and so the filter through which you view life is colored by that.  For people who've lived 80% of their life in a culture in which the internet either didn't exist or else wasn't the primary tool of communication, it would require a radical shift in outlook for them to suddenly value the internet enough to actually incorporate it into their daily life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 29, 2020, 10:25:42 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:27:49 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 28, 2020, 06:05:20 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 05:50:05 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

I know Estes Park (CO) did at the beginning of the month for the downtown district, set to expire June 10.

Quote from: ORDINANCE NO. 07-20
Section 2: Face Coverings Required.

All persons shall wear face coverings at all times when:

b.  outdoors within the boundaries of the Commercial Downtown zoning district, as delineated in the Town of Estes Park Development Code and Official Zoning Map.


Fresno had one but it expired with the City's emergency order on the 26th.

There's no way this was enforceable outdoors.

Interestingly the mayor admitted that here in Fresno when the mask order was instituted.  During the press conference the mayor went onto say that the police weren't looking for people not wearing masks outside, despite it being mandatory in all public places.   

But that doesn't mean such orders are 'unenforceable', just that that they're 'unenforced'.  I fail to see how an order requiring masks inside city hall could be enforceable while requiring masks in a city park could be unenforceable.  Plenty of jurisdictions, especially cities, have enforceable municipal codes prohibiting nudity in outdoor public spaces, so why would one requiring a mask be unenforceable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 29, 2020, 11:01:46 AM
Quote from: kphoger on May 29, 2020, 10:25:42 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 07:27:49 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on May 28, 2020, 06:05:20 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 28, 2020, 05:50:05 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 28, 2020, 04:35:17 PM
What cities have issued orders requiring people to wear masks while outdoors?

I know Estes Park (CO) did at the beginning of the month for the downtown district, set to expire June 10.

Quote from: ORDINANCE NO. 07-20
Section 2: Face Coverings Required.

All persons shall wear face coverings at all times when:

b.  outdoors within the boundaries of the Commercial Downtown zoning district, as delineated in the Town of Estes Park Development Code and Official Zoning Map.


Fresno had one but it expired with the City's emergency order on the 26th.

There's no way this was enforceable outdoors.

Interestingly the mayor admitted that here in Fresno when the mask order was instituted.  During the press conference the mayor went onto say that the police weren't looking for people not wearing masks outside, despite it being mandatory in all public places.   

But that doesn't mean such orders are 'unenforceable', just that that they're 'unenforced'.  I fail to see how an order requiring masks inside city hall could be enforceable while requiring masks in a city park could be unenforceable.  Plenty of jurisdictions, especially cities, have enforceable municipal codes prohibiting nudity in outdoor public spaces, so why would one requiring a mask be unenforceable?

Got me, I never bothered to wear a mask outside of a building the entire time that order was in effect.  As far as I know there was never anyone actually ever ticketed for the mask ordinance inside a building or not.  It kind of seemed like a waste given City Hall was making statements like it did and how fast it ended up dropping it all together in the end. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on May 29, 2020, 01:18:07 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
For some, the "similar platform" is a low-power FM transmitter broadcasting to drive-in congregants. That requires an FM transmitter; any license required (don't know if there is any); parking lot with room for congregants to park within range of the transmitter; and some other arrangement for congregants who don't have their own cars.

Low power 'Part 15' transmitters require no license.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 29, 2020, 08:27:35 PM
Something kind of unique to this pandemic is the amount of office cleaning that has been done. We've lost several keyboards since this all started since people are getting into a bad habit of spraying them down with bleach solution rather than wetting down a rag.  I just spent five minutes blowing out a keyboard to get it working again, kind of defeated the purpose of the initial cleaning..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on May 29, 2020, 08:45:58 PM
Interesting article about how Japan has handled this.  It sounds like they view this not as much as a temporary emergency measure but as a permanent change to avoid closed spaces, crowded spaces, and close contact.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-japan-tackled-coronavirus-without-a-lockdown-2020-5
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on May 29, 2020, 08:51:47 PM
Quote from: kphoger on May 29, 2020, 10:14:57 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 09:42:46 PM
One thing this pandemic has proven, though, is that there are solutions if you're committed to finding them and prepared to think outside the box. Not necessarily easy or good or conventional solutions, but there are ways to make things work.
Overall, I've been very impressed by how well many entities have adapted to the business-from-home model, and also how quickly they were able to implement new practices and tools. However, I've noticed quite a disparity between some institutions and other comparable ones–most notably a disparity between school districts.

That could have a lot to do with internet access, too. But it's not just that. Such tends to go hand in hand with other challenges, like poverty, which only magnifies the disparity between school districts. On the one hand, you have wealthy suburbanites with good internet access that are more comfy at home anyways and easily made the transition to doing everything online. And on the other, you have impoverished districts in which many students lack internet access and hardly have a roof over their head at the best of times. For those students, going to the actual physical school building is an extremely fundamental part of their education. Take that away, and there's really not much left to work with or any precedent for how to overcome it. It's a brutal exposure of societal haves and have-nots, to put it mildly.

Quote from: kphoger on May 29, 2020, 10:14:57 AM
Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 09:42:46 PM
Quote from: oscar on May 28, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
In my age group, I know people who don't have Internet access, or smartphones.
That's true, although kids and grandkids can often help the older folks with technology. Not having any internet access in this day and age is problematic for many other reasons, not being able to join a zoom meeting being fairly low on the list. I get that it's a reality for some people, and maybe that's potentially something their church should be helping/supporting them with, both practically and financially.
It sounds like you're suggesting that religious groups cover the cost of computers and internet subscriptions for members who apparently don't even want them, then commit to training them to use it. In my frank opinion, even if that were reasonable, those members still wouldn't use it. You've grown up in a culture in which the internet has been ubiquitous, and so the filter through which you view life is colored by that.  For people who've lived 80% of their life in a culture in which the internet either didn't exist or else wasn't the primary tool of communication, it would require a radical shift in outlook for them to suddenly value the internet enough to actually incorporate it into their daily life.

That's fair enough. I totally get that. I just don't want to hear "there are no solutions", when solutions do exist, just maybe not ones we like or are used to.
And you're right - I'm in a particularly interesting spot being born right at the tail end of the 20th century. Technology was evolving as I was growing up. I grew with it, so to speak. Older people tend to think of my generation as the generation that was born in to all this technology, but I don't think it's that clear cut. I certainly didn't grow up constantly staring at the computer or phone in my early formative years like someone born a few years ago might be.

(In 20 years, I can easily imagine telling kids about the days of flip phones, for example, and the days before Zoom and video calls existed, and the days when kids under 10 (and even some adults!) didn't have their own phones. And the days when the Internet was a slow beast and worked best with a plug-in cord. And back when I was in school, schools didn't even provide everyone with computers. We actually used pen and paper and I've still got the penmanship to prove it!  :))
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on May 30, 2020, 04:53:43 PM
In light of all the comments upthread about roadtripping and other travel plans being frustrated by the coronavirus pandemic, I thought I would share a little perspective.

I've been doing a little family history research and ran across this blurb about my great-great-grandfather:

Quote from: Salina Daily Union, June 11, 1914, page 5Mr. Schmitter expects to leave on Friday of this week for New York.  On June 30 he will sail on the SS Hamburg for Switzerland, Italy, France and the Holy Land.  He will be accompanied as far as New York by his daughter, Miss Inez Schmitter, who will spend the summer with relatives.

I think he must have intended this trip to have a psychologically restorative effect since he had lost his wife (my great-great-grandmother) to cancer earlier in the year.  But, in any event, he was just about to leave for the overseas portion of his itinerary when a certain Austrian archduke got assassinated.  A little over a month later, the shooting war was in progress on the western front, and he was scrambling to get back to the US via a ship leaving from Amsterdam (the Netherlands remained neutral during World War I).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 30, 2020, 06:40:23 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on May 30, 2020, 04:53:43 PM
In light of all the comments upthread about roadtripping and other travel plans being frustrated by the coronavirus pandemic, I thought I would share a little perspective.

I've been doing a little family history research and ran across this blurb about my great-great-grandfather:

Quote from: Salina Daily Union, June 11, 1914, page 5Mr. Schmitter expects to leave on Friday of this week for New York.  On June 30 he will sail on the SS Hamburg for Switzerland, Italy, France and the Holy Land.  He will be accompanied as far as New York by his daughter, Miss Inez Schmitter, who will spend the summer with relatives.

I think he must have intended this trip to have a psychologically restorative effect since he had lost his wife (my great-great-grandmother) to cancer earlier in the year.  But, in any event, he was just about to leave for the overseas portion of his itinerary when a certain Austrian archduke got assassinated.  A little over a month later, the shooting war was in progress on the western front, and he was scrambling to get back to the US via a ship leaving from Amsterdam (the Netherlands remained neutral during World War I).

Funny, we were talking about what might have happened if our trip to Mexico was a couple weeks later.  As it stood the only Coronavirus anything we ran into during the trip was a couple questions if we had been China at the airport.  Had we gone later there was a pretty good chance we wouldn't have been able to fly home or had to deal with all that 14 day quarantine jazz that so many had to.  There really isn't anyway really to know when something like a pandemic or full scale war is going to break out...

Today was a rare day that my wife had a weekend day off.  That being the case we spent much of the morning out doing errands for the next two weeks.  Costco in Clovis wasn't restricting the number of people who could go into the store but still has a mask rule in effect.  Lowes didn't have a capacity either and only requires people to stay six feet from each other.  We had our first meal out in two months at a restaurant at a local Poki Bowl diner near the house.  It was kind of nice having the place to ourselves, most people were still doing carry out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 31, 2020, 02:28:47 PM
Quote from: webny99 on May 29, 2020, 08:51:47 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 29, 2020, 10:14:57 AM

Quote from: webny99 on May 28, 2020, 09:42:46 PM
One thing this pandemic has proven, though, is that there are solutions if you're committed to finding them and prepared to think outside the box. Not necessarily easy or good or conventional solutions, but there are ways to make things work.

Overall, I've been very impressed by how well many entities have adapted to the business-from-home model, and also how quickly they were able to implement new practices and tools. However, I've noticed quite a disparity between some institutions and other comparable ones–most notably a disparity between school districts.

That could have a lot to do with internet access, too. But it's not just that. Such tends to go hand in hand with other challenges, like poverty, which only magnifies the disparity between school districts. On the one hand, you have wealthy suburbanites with good internet access that are more comfy at home anyways and easily made the transition to doing everything online. And on the other, you have impoverished districts in which many students lack internet access and hardly have a roof over their head at the best of times. For those students, going to the actual physical school building is an extremely fundamental part of their education. Take that away, and there's really not much left to work with or any precedent for how to overcome it. It's a brutal exposure of societal haves and have-nots, to put it mildly.

I wasn't referring to the students, I was referring to the school districts.  That is to say, I've seen great variations in the ability of school districts to implement technology, training, and clear expectations for their teachers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on May 31, 2020, 02:45:36 PM
I've been doing some number crunching this morning based on the latest info from the CDC, in order to fact-check an article I read recently.

(https://i.imgur.com/FN7mtgX.png)

According to the CDC's current best estimate (Scenario 5 in source [1] above), I calculate that 0.26% of all COVID cases end in death.  For those under age 50, the symptomatic case fatality rate is only 0.05%.  If we can assume that the CDC's estimated asymptomatic case rate holds true equally for all age groups–and I don't if that's a safe assumption to make or not–then the net fatality case rate in those over age 65 would be 0.085%, while the net fatality case rate in those under age 50 would be 0.033%.  That is to say, for all people under age 50 (with or without underlying conditions), 1 out of every 3077 who contract the virus will die from it.  If for some reason the asymptomatic case rate varies across age groups, then I doubt it would alter the numbers a whole heck of a lot.

Also note how lopsided the fatality rate is between inside and outside nursing homes or assisted living facilities.  An estimated 42% of all COVID deaths have occurred in nursing homes or assisted living facilities–which account for only 0.62% of the total US population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 31, 2020, 03:10:42 PM
^^^

I cited the same thing from the CDC a couple pages back myself.  Suffice to say that the neighborhood of 0.3% is far less scary than those numbers that were being reported out of China early on regarding a near 4% mortality rate.  For reference, if I recall correctly a 4% mortality rate is about equal to what one could expect attempting to Climb Mount Everest.  I think someone early on in this thread referenced the typical flu season carrying about a 0.1% mortality rate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 31, 2020, 04:25:22 PM
In a little bit of an update to last night we were invited out to dinner by some of our friends.  Some of the differences I noted where we are were as follows:

-  The whole staff was wearing masks and gloves. 
-  We had to order at the front counter and pay in advance. 
-  The server brought us disposable cups and utensils, but regular plates were used. 
-  Condiments came in a baggy as opposed to being at the table. 

I kind of dig the ordering first and taking my seat.  It actually really sped up the process of getting my meal instead of waiting for the server. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on May 31, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
So, what's everyone experiencing in terms of retail prices and product availability?

Gas is slowly going back up. Around here, it's up between 10 cents and 30 cents a gallon from its low a few weeks ago.

Last week, fresh packaged hamburger (73/27, the cheap stuff) went up from $6.19 to $7.99 a pound between Tuesday and Friday at the local grocery store. At Kroger, 30 miles away, the prepackaged five-pound tubes of 73/27 ground beef are $25 ($5 a pound) and three-pound tubes of 80/20 ground chuck are $18 ($6 a pound). Prices for pork chops and tenderloin have tripled or quadrupled locally as well.

Hand sanitizer and disinfectant products are still hard to come by, and some stores are still experiencing paper towel shortages.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on May 31, 2020, 06:29:12 PM
Here in Central California:

-  Gas is up about $0.30 on average but I haven't seen a station climb back over $3 a gallon for 87 Octane.
-  Pretty everyone is stocked with toilet paper and water by now, the demand seems to have dropped through the floor. 
-  Clorox wipes might as well never have existed at all, I haven't seen them in about a month. 
-  Meat is about the same price, but we have a ton of food processing facilities locally. 
-  Interestingly there is a massive shortage in weight sets still.  Those got cleaned out early by people like me and they haven't come back since California won't let gyms reopen yet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on May 31, 2020, 06:38:10 PM
Did drive through at Kellys roast beef in Danvers, they increased the prices of the sandwich due to the meat shortage. However, they accidentally gave us two extra sandwiches so lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on May 31, 2020, 07:53:52 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 31, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
So, what's everyone experiencing in terms of retail prices and product availability?

It's bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on May 31, 2020, 09:50:36 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 31, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
So, what's everyone experiencing in terms of retail prices and product availability?

Current status in SW CT:

- gas prices stubbornly refused to fall in March, but gradually fell over the course of April. Around early May they stopped falling but have held steady since, not observed to be increasing yet. Currently gas is about 70 cents a gallon cheaper than it was 3 months ago ($1.99-$2.09 vs. $2.69-$2.79).

- paper towels and toilet paper were very difficult to find from mid-March through the end of April. Has since improved but still far from normal. Big box stores more reliably have these things than grocery stores or pharmacies.

- hand sanitizer was impossible to find until a few weeks ago but now it's everywhere. Stores have bins overflowing with it. Hand soap on the other hand remains difficult to find. Walmart and Stop&Shop have been completely out every time I've looked. CVS occasionally has a slim supply of single bottles but no big refills. When I checked Costco recently they had pallets of bar soap but the only liquid hand soap was the foofy scented kind, nothing plain.

- supply of generic store meats (beef, pork, chicken) is basically normal, but prepackaged/processed meats (bacon, sausage, etc.) are a bit slim pickings. I haven't bought any of the former in a month since I stocked us up when I first heard rumblings of meatpacking plants having trouble, so I haven't been paying attention to the prices. The prices of the latter, at least at the local Stop & Shop, are unchanged from the normal sticker price - they haven't had any sales on this stuff since April though, so there's that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on May 31, 2020, 10:58:59 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 31, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
So, what's everyone experiencing in terms of retail prices and product availability?

Gas prices are starting to climb back up (now to $2.17 from $2.09). Meat prices are holding steady, as are most other consumable goods.

Hand sanitizer is occasionally available at various stores. Even Dollar Tree had a shipment of Chinese-made sanitizer. Costco is selling sanitizers made by local distilleries and breweries, complete with glass bottles. Paper products are widely available, but there are fewer in number and restrictions on customer purchases.

Masks are actually easy to find if you go to smaller stores. Daiso (the Japanese 100-yen store) has plenty of them in stock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 01, 2020, 05:53:14 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 31, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
So, what's everyone experiencing in terms of retail prices and product availability?

Gas is slowly going back up. Around here, it's up between 10 cents and 30 cents a gallon from its low a few weeks ago.

Last week, fresh packaged hamburger (73/27, the cheap stuff) went up from $6.19 to $7.99 a pound between Tuesday and Friday at the local grocery store. At Kroger, 30 miles away, the prepackaged five-pound tubes of 73/27 ground beef are $25 ($5 a pound) and three-pound tubes of 80/20 ground chuck are $18 ($6 a pound). Prices for pork chops and tenderloin have tripled or quadrupled locally as well.

Hand sanitizer and disinfectant products are still hard to come by, and some stores are still experiencing paper towel shortages.

Damn, does nobody raise cattle in Kentucky? In Oklahoma it's about $6/lb for 90/10. Eye round steak is $11.98/lb.

We haven't had any real shortages of products at the Crest grocery store in Norman since about early April. Major brands are often depleted, but there is always at least a no-name or budget equivalent available. (Colortex toilet paper sucks. At least I only had to buy that once.) Cleaning supplies are available, but they are all brands I've never heard of. Clorox is nowhere to be found, but there is still off-brand bleach. Many of them seem like rush-job packaging from vendors that don't normally sell to consumers; a lot of the labels look like a simple copy-paste of an MSDS or similar sheet, sometimes with a logo hurriedly slapped on.
(https://i.imgur.com/V3Vf4kl.jpg)

There are also some instances of businesses that don't normally make cleaning supplies doing so. Crest carries a brand of hand sanitizer made at a brewery in Guthrie, as well as one made at a CBD company in New Jersey.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bugo on June 01, 2020, 07:35:39 AM
Damn, does nobody raise cattle in Kentucky? In Oklahoma it's about $6/lb for 90/10. Eye round steak is $11.98/lb.
[/quote]

Pork is really cheap in Oklahoma, at least at Reasor's. I bought some pork chops for $1.55 a pound a while back, and I paid $6 or $7 for two nice sized little pork roasts that was enough for two meals a few months ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 01, 2020, 08:52:02 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 31, 2020, 04:25:22 PM
In a little bit of an update to last night we were invited out to dinner by some of our friends.  Some of the differences I noted where we are were as follows:

-  The whole staff was wearing masks and gloves. 
-  We had to order at the front counter and pay in advance. 
-  The server brought us disposable cups and utensils, but regular plates were used. 
-  Condiments came in a baggy as opposed to being at the table. 

I kind of dig the ordering first and taking my seat.  It actually really sped up the process of getting my meal instead of waiting for the server. 

On Saturday my wife and I went out on a date for the first time since....ummmm....January, I think.  We biked down to a Middle Eastern restaurant near our house for lunch.  Even at 12:15 on a Saturday, I think we were the first people to sit down.  It's a seat-yourself and pay-later establishment.  Every other table was blocked off (as is the norm in my experience these days), but our waitress didn't even wear a mask.  The other employees I saw were wearing masks, but it was very refreshing to actually see our waitress's smile as she served us.  It was like a human interaction, almost like normal life.  So far, that's only the third dine-in restaurant we've been to since March.

Quote from: hbelkins on May 31, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
So, what's everyone experiencing in terms of retail prices and product availability?

The only things I've paid attention to have been toilet paper and meat.  I don't pay much attention to the price of gas, for two reasons:  (1) I use the same amount no matter what the price is and (2) with my grocery store shopper's card, the price I pay never matches what's on the sign anyway.

Toilet paper has been well stocked for at least a month now.

I only noticed meat shortages for about two weeks.  Nowadays, not only are the shelves stocked with meat (perhaps even better stocked than before), but I also no longer see signs limiting customers to one or two of an item.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 01, 2020, 09:28:29 AM
My church held in-person services for the first time since mid-March yesterday. Some things that were different:

- They had two services, divided by last name (A-M went at 9am while N-Z went at 10:30am)
- Every pew had tape on one side (so each pew had one entrance from the aisles, alternating sides)
- Groups were set three to four pews apart
- Offering plates were set at the entrance to church
- The hymnals and Bibles were removed from the pews, with the hymns being sung on that day printed out in the bulletin
- Communion was done by family group, with the elder setting out a wafer and wine for each person on a napkin
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 01, 2020, 09:36:20 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 01, 2020, 09:28:29 AM
My church held in-person services for the first time since mid-March yesterday. Some things that were different:

- They had two services, divided by last name (A-M went at 9am while N-Z went at 10:30am)
- Every pew had tape on one side (so each pew had one entrance from the aisles, alternating sides)
- Groups were set three to four pews apart
- Offering plates were set at the entrance to church
- The hymnals and Bibles were removed from the pews, with the hymns being sung on that day printed out in the bulletin
- Communion was done by family group, with the elder setting out a wafer and wine for each person on a napkin

Our in-home small group started yesterday evening (started off with game night, actual content to begin next week), with corporate worship not scheduled to begin till June 21.  We determined that the main thing that needed to be adjusted at small group was dinner.  The galley-style kitchen tended to be where everyone congregated at once, for one thing.  We spaced the tables out more, and switched from everyone serving him- or herself, à la buffet, to having everyone sit down and then one person from each family serve the rest of the family.

I think the trickiest thing for us to figure out at church will be how to maintain personal space in Sunday school classrooms.  The age in between nursery and about nine years old is, in our opinion, the age during which kids simply can't keep their fingers out of their mouth and nose and can't seem to keep their hands to themselves.  Splitting them up into smaller classes is the obvious solution, but teachers are in short supply in our congregation, with some of them likely not to return for a while due to ongoing fear of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 01, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on May 31, 2020, 03:10:42 PM
^^^

I cited the same thing from the CDC a couple pages back myself.  Suffice to say that the neighborhood of 0.3% is far less scary than those numbers that were being reported out of China early on regarding a near 4% mortality rate.  For reference, if I recall correctly a 4% mortality rate is about equal to what one could expect attempting to Climb Mount Everest.  I think someone early on in this thread referenced the typical flu season carrying about a 0.1% mortality rate?
One thing to remember - there are lots of lessons learned over these months. Care must be way more effective these days that it was in Wuhan.
Another thing to consider is long term consequences. What I heard lat time, about 7% of those recovered are left with degraded health, and that may be another thing to look at
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 01, 2020, 10:45:32 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 01, 2020, 10:41:25 AMAnother thing to consider is long term consequences. What I heard lat time, about 7% of those recovered are left with degraded health, and that may be another thing to look at

That was actually my focus back in February, since SARS (2003) is correlated with high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors.  This is the main reason I've been skeptical of a herd-immunity strategy all along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on June 01, 2020, 01:25:59 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on May 31, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
So, what's everyone experiencing in terms of retail prices and product availability?

Gas is up about 10-15 cents/gal from the lowest point, now generally in the $1.70s in my area.

Meat supplies seem to be fine, at least at my local Kroger, with only marginally higher prices than usual (80/20 ground beef going for $5.29/lb instead of $4.99, for instance). There are still signs limiting shoppers to a maximum item count of 3 (not a problem for me, shopping for one person).

Toilet paper inventory seemed to still be a little light, but by no means wiped out. I don't know how bad that got, because this trip was the first time I actually looked for it since...whenever I last bought TP. January, maybe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 01, 2020, 01:58:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 01, 2020, 05:53:14 AM
Damn, does nobody raise cattle in Kentucky? In Oklahoma it's about $6/lb for 90/10. Eye round steak is $11.98/lb.

We haven't had any real shortages of products at the Crest grocery store in Norman since about early April. Major brands are often depleted, but there is always at least a no-name or budget equivalent available. (Colortex toilet paper sucks. At least I only had to buy that once.) Cleaning supplies are available, but they are all brands I've never heard of. Clorox is nowhere to be found, but there is still off-brand bleach. Many of them seem like rush-job packaging from vendors that don't normally sell to consumers; a lot of the labels look like a simple copy-paste of an MSDS or similar sheet, sometimes with a logo hurriedly slapped on.
(https://i.imgur.com/V3Vf4kl.jpg)

There are also some instances of businesses that don't normally make cleaning supplies doing so. Crest carries a brand of hand sanitizer made at a brewery in Guthrie, as well as one made at a CBD company in New Jersey.

I've read that Kentucky is the largest cattle-producing state east of the Mississippi, but that doesn't mean that the animals can be slaughtered and processed. Some people are buying beef in bulk, but for those who are new to that, they're having problems finding deep freezes in which to store the beef. And even if they could, people generally don't have enough spare cash to buy a side of beef and a freezer. Add to that the fact that many prefer their meat fresh, not frozen.

A number of our distilleries have started making hand sanitizer, but several of those are bulk-selling to institutions and other facilities (like hospitals and state agencies) and not marketing it to the general public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 01, 2020, 02:03:08 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 01, 2020, 10:45:32 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 01, 2020, 10:41:25 AMAnother thing to consider is long term consequences. What I heard lat time, about 7% of those recovered are left with degraded health, and that may be another thing to look at

That was actually my focus back in February, since SARS (2003) is correlated with high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors.  This is the main reason I've been skeptical of a herd-immunity strategy all along.

One I've noticed in almost all the survivors that had significant symptoms is massive weight loss.  Usually it seems to be in excess of 20 pounds, one nurse in San Francisco apparently lost close to 60.  The unnerving in the last instance was that the dude was (maybe still will be) a triathlete. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 02:11:57 PM
I'm skeptical of the government's ability to manage this virus and develop an effective vaccine before herd immunity is reached.  Besides herd immunity sounds like a better strategy than what some governors have been doing - allowing confirmed coronavirus cases to mingle with the most vulnerable populations inside nursing homes while forcing the non-vulnerable to shelter at home.  The social-economic impacts of people being out of work for months can't be understated.  Over the past few months over 40 million Americans have lost their jobs and it's creating a mental health disaster in this country.  One of the Americans to lose his source of livelihood was 46 year-old George Floyd who lost his job as a security guard at a restaurant when Minnesota's governor issued a stay-at-home order.  Now a powder-keg is going off in this country and say bye-bye to social distancing measures.  The same governors who were so concerned about people congregating to protest the stay-at-home measures are largely silent about the dangers of the virus spreading during the George Floyd protests.  If the governors don't want people to congregate in large groups they are doing a horrible job at preventing it.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 01, 2020, 02:22:15 PM
Of Mexico's 32 states, 31 of them are continuing this month in "Maximum risk" mode–a red light on their new four-color stoplight paradigm.  The only state to move beyond red (Zacatecas) only moves to orange or "High risk".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 01, 2020, 02:25:23 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 02:11:57 PM
I'm skeptical of the government's ability to manage this virus and develop an effective vaccine before herd immunity is reached.  Besides herd immunity sounds like a better strategy than what some governors have been doing - allowing confirmed coronavirus cases to mingle with the most vulnerable populations inside nursing homes while forcing the non-vulnerable to shelter at home.  The social-economic impacts of people being out of work for months can't be understated.  Over the past few months over 40 million Americans have lost their jobs and it's creating a mental health disaster in this country.  One of the Americans to lose his source of livelihood was 46 year-old George Floyd who lost his job as a security guard at a restaurant when Minnesota's governor issued a stay-at-home order.  Now a powder-keg is going off in this country and say bye-bye to social distancing measures.  The same governors who were so concerned about people congregating to protest the stay-at-home measures are largely silent about the dangers of the virus spreading during the George Floyd protests.  If the governors don't want people to congregate in large groups they are doing a horrible job at preventing it.

I think people really need to consider the fact that there might not be a vaccine coming any time soon.  I keep hearing people say "I'll wait for a cure."    That could end up being a huge time frame or not at all, it's definitely not a guarantee. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 01, 2020, 02:31:31 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 02:11:57 PM
I'm skeptical of the government's ability to manage this virus and develop an effective vaccine before herd immunity is reached.  Besides herd immunity sounds like a better strategy than what some governors have been doing - allowing confirmed coronavirus cases to mingle with the most vulnerable populations inside nursing homes while forcing the non-vulnerable to shelter at home.  The social-economic impacts of people being out of work for months can't be understated.  Over the past few months over 40 million Americans have lost their jobs and it's creating a mental health disaster in this country.  One of the Americans to lose his source of livelihood was 46 year-old George Floyd who lost his job as a security guard at a restaurant when Minnesota's governor issued a stay-at-home order.  Now a powder-keg is going off in this country and say bye-bye to social distancing measures.  The same governors who were so concerned about people congregating to protest the stay-at-home measures are largely silent about the dangers of the virus spreading during the George Floyd protests.  If the governors don't want people to congregate in large groups they are doing a horrible job at preventing it.   

Actually many governors have stated that protestors should be masked and otherwise safe, but clearly that has gotten lost given everything else that is happening.

And are you somehow trying to indirectly blame Minnesota's safer at home orders for Floyd's death?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 01, 2020, 02:43:58 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 02:11:57 PM
... sounds like a better strategy than what some governors have been doing - allowing confirmed coronavirus cases to mingle with the most vulnerable populations inside nursing homes while forcing the non-vulnerable to shelter at home.

Highlighted below are those states I've seen reference to requiring long-term care facilities to accept patients with the virus.  Of course, saying that the one necessarily led to the other could be a case of post hoc ergo propter hoc, but I provide the numbers for you nevertheless.

(https://i.imgur.com/um1Wht5.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 01, 2020, 03:00:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 01, 2020, 08:52:02 AM
The other employees I saw were wearing masks, but it was very refreshing to actually see our waitress's smile as she served us.  It was like a human interaction, almost like normal life.

It's been very refreshing to get to wear a mask at work, because I don't have to deal with people bitching about me not smiling enough.

For some reason, they don't like it when I concentrate on contorting my face into a fake smile instead of what I'm doing and short them $20 as a result, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
How many of these price increases are due to the money supply being increased by the 'stimulus'?  The amount of money that was 'printed' by that reduced the value of all of the money that was already in circulation in proportion to how much that 'printing' increased the supply - that is the very definition of 'inflation'.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 01, 2020, 03:31:43 PM
Quote from: Angie Aparo, 'The American'
Got a pocket full
Of government issued cures for poverty
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 01, 2020, 03:50:34 PM
I hope that there is not a huge spike in two weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 01, 2020, 04:00:14 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
How many of these price increases are due to the money supply being increased by the 'stimulus'?  The amount of money that was 'printed' by that reduced the value of all of the money that was already in circulation in proportion to how much that 'printing' increased the supply - that is the very definition of 'inflation'.

Mike

Reuters (April 16): Americans are spending coronavirus checks on rent and groceries (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-relief/americans-are-spending-coronavirus-checks-on-rent-and-groceries-idUSKBN21Y2YF)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on June 01, 2020, 04:27:20 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 01, 2020, 01:58:36 PM
I've read that Kentucky is the largest cattle-producing state east of the Mississippi, but that doesn't mean that the animals can be slaughtered and processed. Some people are buying beef in bulk, but for those who are new to that, they're having problems finding deep freezes in which to store the beef. And even if they could, people generally don't have enough spare cash to buy a side of beef and a freezer. Add to that the fact that many prefer their meat fresh, not frozen.

A number of our distilleries have started making hand sanitizer, but several of those are bulk-selling to institutions and other facilities (like hospitals and state agencies) and not marketing it to the general public.

I got fed up with the pricing and availability of beef to the point that I bought an 1100lb steer Saturday morning, had it delivered to my cousin's decommissioned meat processing shop, and we shot it, hung it, and butchered it right there from the winch in about 4.5 hours.  Left him with the head, hooves, hide, stomach, spleen, intestines, and one of the rear hindquarters for his services and hauled the rest on ice in 2 100 gallon water tanks in my box trailer back home for my wife and her sisters to further process and package, and we had steak Saturday night that was mooing 9 hours earlier.  And had some Laotion pho with the bones and some sliced chuck roast the next night.  Still processing the ground beef and packaging, but that steer is feeding 4 families for several months, and at only $1.30/lb. on the hoof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 01, 2020, 04:31:10 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
How many of these price increases are due to the money supply being increased by the 'stimulus'?  The amount of money that was 'printed' by that reduced the value of all of the money that was already in circulation in proportion to how much that 'printing' increased the supply - that is the very definition of 'inflation'.

Mike


From what I understand, the price issues are mostly due to lack of supply.

My anecdotal experience is that the price of beef is whacky high, but it has been high for awhile.  But the price of produce, and other meat like chicken, isn't that much different than pre-pandemic. 

I also read something where a lot of the stimulous money hasn't actually been spent yet.  That those people who are employed and can still pay their bills, stuck it in savings accounts for a later date.  Which means any inflationary aspects will likely be played out over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 04:52:17 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
And are you somehow trying to indirectly blame Minnesota's safer at home orders for Floyd's death?

Swatting an insignificant mosquito can change the course of history.  Who knows what happens if Minnesota (or any other state for that matter) doesn't enact their safer at home orders.  George Floyd losing his job is a significant event in his life no doubt.  What we do know is 40 million jobs have been lost, large groups of people are protesting in the streets, and some disenfranchised groups are rioting.  All this and the virus is still prevalent in America with over 20,000 new cases a day. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZT7gzEM56s
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 01, 2020, 05:06:31 PM
FWIW, my stimulus payment is sitting in my credit union account.

Meat availability here has remained good.  There have been no empty shelves in the meat department at the Dillons near me, although there are purchase limits and we have more or less given up on being able to buy flatiron steak on sale until this crisis works itself out.

On the other hand, it has been a month since I have been able to buy linguine.  This is apparently a result of the pasta mills ceasing production of specialty pastas in favor of spaghetti.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 01, 2020, 05:07:06 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 04:52:17 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
And are you somehow trying to indirectly blame Minnesota's safer at home orders for Floyd's death?

Swatting an insignificant mosquito can change the course of history.  Who knows what happens if Minnesota (or any other state for that matter) doesn't enact their safer at home orders.  George Floyd losing his job is a significant event in his life no doubt.  What we do know is 40 million jobs have been lost, large groups of people are protesting in the streets, and some disenfranchised groups are rioting.  All this and the virus is still prevalent in America with over 20,000 new cases a day. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZT7gzEM56s

Ehh...I've really tried to stay out of this but I'll opine just this once.  I haven't really haven't looked the circumstances that brought George Floyd into contact with Minneapolis PD.  What I did see for what I briefly watched (I wasn't interested in watching a man die) was a blatant case of excessive force.  From all the  accounts I've seen the officer was a hot head who I'm to understand didn't have a squeaky clean track record.  Yeah, a series of Pandemic domino effects might have contributed to bringing the parties together but it doesn't change the fact that George Floyd is dead.  It's hard for me to look at what happened with the police officer and not think that it would have just happened to someone else had there been no pandemic.  To me associating what happened to George Floyd is missing the point that it was a clear case of excessive force. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 01, 2020, 05:12:48 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 04:52:17 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
And are you somehow trying to indirectly blame Minnesota's safer at home orders for Floyd's death?

Swatting an insignificant mosquito can change the course of history.  Who knows what happens if Minnesota (or any other state for that matter) doesn't enact their safer at home orders.  George Floyd losing his job is a significant event in his life no doubt.  What we do know is 40 million jobs have been lost, large groups of people are protesting in the streets, and some disenfranchised groups are rioting.  All this and the virus is still prevalent in America with over 20,000 new cases a day. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZT7gzEM56s


Or, how about the cop doesn't kill him regardless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on June 01, 2020, 05:17:03 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 01, 2020, 09:28:29 AM
My church held in-person services for the first time since mid-March yesterday. Some things that were different:

- They had two services, divided by last name (A-M went at 9am while N-Z went at 10:30am)
- Every pew had tape on one side (so each pew had one entrance from the aisles, alternating sides)
- Groups were set three to four pews apart
- Offering plates were set at the entrance to church
- The hymnals and Bibles were removed from the pews, with the hymns being sung on that day printed out in the bulletin
- Communion was done by family group, with the elder setting out a wafer and wine for each person on a napkin

My church also started yesterday. Things I noticed:
- Every other pew was blocked off.
- No Communion at church right now
- Dropboxes for offering were installed all around the church.
- No childcare for the foreseeable future.
- Pretty low attendance, it probably looked like more than it was because everyone was spread out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on June 01, 2020, 06:10:54 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 04:52:17 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
And are you somehow trying to indirectly blame Minnesota's safer at home orders for Floyd's death?

Swatting an insignificant mosquito can change the course of history.  Who knows what happens if Minnesota (or any other state for that matter) doesn't enact their safer at home orders.  George Floyd losing his job is a significant event in his life no doubt.  What we do know is 40 million jobs have been lost, large groups of people are protesting in the streets, and some disenfranchised groups are rioting.  All this and the virus is still prevalent in America with over 20,000 new cases a day. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZT7gzEM56s

Uh, what does all that have to do with the Simpsons becoming Flanderized (one of my favorite Treehouse of Horror scenes)?

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 01, 2020, 06:22:51 PM
Kings Canyon National Park and Sequoia National Park to reopen on the 4th sans Campgrounds:

https://www.nps.gov/seki/planyourvisit/conditions.htm

I guess that I know what I'll be doing next week or maybe even Friday.  Now it Yosemite reopens I'll be pretty much set to resume my full list of outdoor activities I had planned for this year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 02, 2020, 09:32:35 AM
It looks like Isle Royale National Park might not open at all this summer: https://www.nps.gov/isro/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
It might be partly budgetary reasons, but that isn't mentioned. Isle Royale has a very short season to begin with (in a normal year, it doesn't open until around Memorial Day weekend and closes in September)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 02, 2020, 10:32:18 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 02, 2020, 09:32:35 AM
It looks like Isle Royale National Park might not open at all this summer: https://www.nps.gov/isro/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
It might be partly budgetary reasons, but that isn't mentioned. Isle Royale has a very short season to begin with (in a normal year, it doesn't open until around Memorial Day weekend and closes in September)

In other National Park news Yosemite won't open until California hits Phase 3 and you'll have to buy a pass off recreation.gov if you are using a western entrance.  Apparently Death Valley is reopening during Phase 3 also.  Much of Channel Islands National Park was reopen as of yesterday and Island Packers have begun operating boat shuttles again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 02, 2020, 10:58:34 AM
California cases are trending higher even as people are filling the streets to protest.  At this rate in a few weeks California will have more daily cases than New York had at its peak.  California is quickly losing control of the situation.

(https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/12/25/17/19485633/3/core_breaking_now.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 02, 2020, 11:22:24 AM
Of Mexico's 32 states, 31 remain on the "Maximum Risk" level of shutdowns for the month of June.

(https://e00-marca.uecdn.es/assets/multimedia/imagenes/2020/05/29/15907696687136.jpg)

It's possible there's a very gradual flattening of the curve in Mexico but, if so, it's just beginning to show and it's very slight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 02, 2020, 11:44:41 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 02, 2020, 10:58:34 AM
California cases are trending higher even as people are filling the streets to protest.  At this rate in a few weeks California will have more daily cases than New York had at its peak.  California is quickly losing control of the situation.

(https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/12/25/17/19485633/3/core_breaking_now.jpg)

Got a citation that shows causality between the protests and the case count going up?  That would be some pretty fast test results after weekend protesting...just saying...   About 55k of the 113k confirmed cases are still from Los Angeles County.  The entire top five counties are in urbanized Southern California Counties:

2.  Riverside approximately 7,700
3.  San Diego approximately 7,500
4.  Orange approximately 6,500
5.  San Bernardino approximately 5,200

From there the Bay Area Counties start coming with Alameda in 6th at approximately 3,500 cases.   As far as I know even with the current case numbers there haven't been any reports of overwhelmed medical facilities.  Sierra County instituted some additional emergency procedures after it had its first four confirmed cases.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 02, 2020, 11:58:29 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 02, 2020, 11:44:41 AM
Got a citation that shows causality between the protests and the case count going up?  That would be some pretty fast test results after weekend protesting...just saying...   

But isn't it worrisome that the case count is trending up even before the protests are taken into account?  I didn't suggest that the confirmed cases included the protesters.  You just wouldn't think having thousands gather in the middle of a pandemic while your state is seeing increased daily cases would be a good idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 02, 2020, 12:09:21 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 02, 2020, 11:58:29 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 02, 2020, 11:44:41 AM
Got a citation that shows causality between the protests and the case count going up?  That would be some pretty fast test results after weekend protesting...just saying...   

But isn't it worrisome that the case count is trending up even before the protests are taken into account?  I didn't suggest that the confirmed cases included the protesters.  You just wouldn't think having thousands gather in the middle of a pandemic while your state is seeing increased daily cases would be a good idea.

Perhaps, but that isn't something exclusive to California alone as other states are having protests as well.  It probably won't be clear for quite some time what effect large protests will have on case numbers.  Interestingly in that photo you linked it does show the majority of people wearing masks.  In a way that might be in a way be an informal test of their effectiveness in a mass gathering. 

But going back to what you did say.  It really wasn't clear if you meant the protests, case numbers, or hospitalizations were out of control.  An increase in cases doesn't mean that a measure of control hasn't been lost (Again the photo shows people with masks) or that hospitals will suddenly become overwhelmed/overburdened. 

Regarding the protests people were assembling in large numbers before the death of George Floyd.  Those protests were oriented towards the actual COVID-19 restrictions and they occurred all over the state for months.  To that end while they certainly aren't the same scale of protest I've yet to see any evidence that those mass gatherings were the start of a COVID-19 case spike.  Again, it's way too early to draw causality between protests and case numbers. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 02, 2020, 03:59:20 PM
Quote from: Bruce on June 01, 2020, 04:00:14 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
How many of these price increases are due to the money supply being increased by the 'stimulus'?  The amount of money that was 'printed' by that reduced the value of all of the money that was already in circulation in proportion to how much that 'printing' increased the supply - that is the very definition of 'inflation'.

Mike

Reuters (April 16): Americans are spending coronavirus checks on rent and groceries (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-relief/americans-are-spending-coronavirus-checks-on-rent-and-groceries-idUSKBN21Y2YF)

Two weeks ago last Friday, after most stimulus payments had either been delivered by direct deposit, paper check, or debit card (more on that later), I was in the traditional 1985-model non-supercenter Walmart in Jackson, Ky. They did not have one single solitary television in stock. Not even any displays. At least a month prior, they had been well-stocked. I think I know where a bunch of stimulus money went, given that TVs had sold out.

And speaking of the physical distribution of the money, I remember reading about a controversy over the inclusion of the president's name on the checks. Why, then, were payments being made via debit card? What was the determining factor in who got a paper check vs. who got a debit card? Did the Treasury opt to send debit cards to keep from having to put the president's name on the checks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 02, 2020, 04:05:00 PM
I know my dad spent the stimulus check on a new enamel-wear pot.

Frankly, I don't trust people to honest self-report where they spent their check.  They probably think they're more likely to get a second check if they lie and say they spent it on rent and utilities than if they spent it on a new TV.  Of course, that's just the cynical part of me.  The other part of me believes that most people did indeed spend it on rent and utilities, considering how many people were laid off or furloughed from work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 02, 2020, 04:08:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 02, 2020, 04:05:00 PM
I know my dad spent the stimulus check on a new enamel-wear pot.

Frankly, I don't trust people to honest self-report where they spent their check.  They probably think they're more likely to get a second check if they lie and say they spent it on rent and utilities than if they spent it on a new TV.  Of course, that's just the cynical part of me.  The other part of me believes that most people did indeed spend it on rent and utilities, considering how many people were laid off or furloughed from work.

I spent mine on taxes (local property taxes) and car repairs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 02, 2020, 04:19:26 PM
The whole point of the stimulus checks was to stimulate the economy by spending money.  So if people went out and spent it on televisions, enamel-wear pots and car repairs, that was the entire idea.

That is why they were sent to everyone under a certain income level - and not just those who had financial problems.

But my understanding is that more people are saving instead of spending, and that is negating part of the reason for the stimulus.  That could be why the IRS is sending debit cards to "qualified individuals without bank information on file"  whose last tax returns were filed to IRS service centers in Andover, Mass., and Austin, Texas."

https://money.com/stimulus-check-payment-debit-card/

It's harder to save it when it is on a debit card.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 02, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 02, 2020, 03:59:20 PM
And speaking of the physical distribution of the money, I remember reading about a controversy over the inclusion of the president's name on the checks. Why, then, were payments being made via debit card? What was the determining factor in who got a paper check vs. who got a debit card? Did the Treasury opt to send debit cards to keep from having to put the president's name on the checks?

I had expected a direct deposit to my checking account. Several Federal agencies have my direct deposit information. But I got a paper check instead.

Since Treasury is led by an Administration loyalist, I don't buy that as a reason for debit card (or direct deposit).

Quote from: hbelkins on June 02, 2020, 04:08:50 PM
I spent mine on taxes (local property taxes) and car repairs.

I just saved mine, to partially offset the hit taken on my retirement savings. Not nearly as much hurt as other people have endured, but my economic impact payment was put to good use anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 02, 2020, 04:31:36 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 02, 2020, 03:59:20 PM
And speaking of the physical distribution of the money, I remember reading about a controversy over the inclusion of the president's name on the checks. Why, then, were payments being made via debit card? What was the determining factor in who got a paper check vs. who got a debit card? Did the Treasury opt to send debit cards to keep from having to put the president's name on the checks?
We got our stimulus via direct deposit, no signature. But a letter with Trump's signature came in today - very similar to this picture. Check or not...
https://i1.wp.com/xperimentalhamid.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/IRS-Notice-Letter-1444-sample-01.png
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 02, 2020, 04:39:13 PM
I ended up getting my stimulus via a check.  I spent about $1,000 of it on a new mountain bike I've needed for years.  Considering the money went to a local bike shop my wife and I supported it didn't leave me with any hang ups about it.  Personally I never considered saving the money but planned for an expense which would have come out of pocket otherwise. 

I got one of those letters yesterday.  My wife wants to hang it up in the garage (along with masks she made6,, I'm not so keen on the idea.  Personally I don't want to hang onto memorabilia from a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 04:46:04 PM
I also had my income tax return go through at the same time as the stimulus check. I saved mine for want of anything important to spend the money on. That and I had the fortune to be told to stay home from work (casinos were closed), but was still being paid by my employer. I had no way of knowing whether that would continue to be the case, and wanted to be prepared.

I may end up investing it in a business venture some of my friends cooked up while we were closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 02, 2020, 04:48:03 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 02, 2020, 04:31:30 PMI had expected a direct deposit to my checking account. Several Federal agencies have my direct deposit information. But I got a paper check instead.

I got a paper check too, with "Economic Impact Payment - President Donald J. Trump" printed in the memo area.

Quote from: oscar on June 02, 2020, 04:31:30 PMSince Treasury is led by an Administration loyalist, I don't buy that as a reason for debit card (or direct deposit).

I buy the economic-policy justification for the debit cards that SEWIGuy links to.  But I think the mailing was very ineptly executed, as evidenced by all of the media advisories warning people not to mistake the debit cards for credit card offers.

Quote from: kalvado on June 02, 2020, 04:31:36 PMWe got our stimulus via direct deposit, no signature. But a letter with Trump's signature came in today - very similar to this picture. Check or not...

https://i1.wp.com/xperimentalhamid.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/IRS-Notice-Letter-1444-sample-01.png

I received this as well, mailed separately from the check--it arrived about two weeks ago.  While the letter (including Trump's signature) is clearly a standard form letter, the amount and the method of delivery in the fourth paragraph is custom-printed (in ink, presumably using an inkjet printer; the rest is in toner).  The PNG linked above shows "direct debit" while mine reads "check/debit card."

"EN-SP" in the form number is clearly a language combination code (English on front, Spanish on reverse:  in Spanish, the delivery method designation on mine is "cheque/tarjeta de débito").  I wonder what other language combinations were used as part of this mailing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 02, 2020, 04:52:46 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 02, 2020, 04:48:03 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 02, 2020, 04:31:36 PMWe got our stimulus via direct deposit, no signature. But a letter with Trump's signature came in today - very similar to this picture. Check or not...

https://i1.wp.com/xperimentalhamid.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/IRS-Notice-Letter-1444-sample-01.png
I received this as well, mailed separately from the check--it arrived about two weeks ago.

Interesting, I just received the letter yesterday, also separate from the check.
I got a paper check, while my parents got a direct deposit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 02, 2020, 06:26:58 PM
We got a check, with Trump's name printed on it, not a signature.

We haven't received our tax refund for 2019 yet.  We had to file on paper because of a complexity with my HSA that is still partially funded by a former employer.

And since we had to pay on our 2018 return, they won't have our direct deposit info on file until 2019 is processed.  Hence the check.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 02, 2020, 07:17:40 PM
Quote from: GaryV on June 02, 2020, 06:26:58 PM
We got a check, with Trump's name printed on it, not a signature.

Since Trump isn't authorized to sign Treasury checks. Nor is Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, though his signature -- much more legible than Trump's -- appears on at least the latest $1, $5, $10, and $20 bills. I think the economic impact checks have the printed signature of the current Treasurer of the United States, Jovita Carranza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 02, 2020, 08:43:55 PM
I find the whole question of "what did you spend your stimulus check on?" to be nonsensical. We got our money direct deposited into our bank account. Pretty much everything we spend any money on ultimately comes out of the same bank account. Asking what we spent the stimulus money on is a little bit like asking which glass on someone's table the milk from a particular cow at the dairy farm ended up in - that's not how it works, you can't map a particular output to a particular input. Dollars in the bank account don't have individual identities.

If I were asked a multiple choice question about this I'd probably say we spent it on our mortgage since that is our largest single expense. But that's not a meaningful answer. I can't give a meaningful answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 02, 2020, 08:58:18 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 02, 2020, 07:17:40 PMI think the economic impact checks have the printed signature of the current Treasurer of the United States, Jovita Carranza.

No.  I think the signature on your check (if you received one) depends on where you live in the country.  Mine bore the signature of Vona S. Robinson, identified (in fine print) as a Regional Disbursing Officer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 02, 2020, 08:59:56 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on June 02, 2020, 08:43:55 PM
I find the whole question of "what did you spend your stimulus check on?" to be nonsensical. We got our money direct deposited into our bank account. Pretty much everything we spend any money on ultimately comes out of the same bank account. Asking what we spent the stimulus money on is a little bit like asking which glass on someone's table the milk from a particular cow at the dairy farm ended up in - that's not how it works, you can't map a particular output to a particular input. Dollars in the bank account don't have individual identities.

If I were asked a multiple choice question about this I'd probably say we spent it on our mortgage since that is our largest single expense. But that's not a meaningful answer. I can't give a meaningful answer.

Put it this way in my case then.  If a $1,200 stimulus check didn't show up then I wasn't buying a $1,000 dollar bike until my three paycheck month in July.  There is total causation with the stimulus check bumping my purchase up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 02, 2020, 09:05:16 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on June 02, 2020, 08:43:55 PM
I find the whole question of "what did you spend your stimulus check on?" to be nonsensical.
...
If I were asked a multiple choice question about this I'd probably say we spent it on our mortgage since that is our largest single expense. But that's not a meaningful answer. I can't give a meaningful answer.

Perhaps a more meaningful question is "Did you use or save your stimulus check?"
I haven't spent money on anything that I wouldn't have anyways, so my answer would be Save.

Now, I could list out how I spent the next $1200 in the immediate aftermath of receiving the check, say I "used" the check on that, and then say I "saved" my next $1200 of regular income. And indeed, that would be completely nonsensical. That's why use or save is the better question to be asking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on June 02, 2020, 09:14:13 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 02, 2020, 03:59:20 PM
Quote from: Bruce on June 01, 2020, 04:00:14 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 01, 2020, 03:29:29 PM
How many of these price increases are due to the money supply being increased by the 'stimulus'?  The amount of money that was 'printed' by that reduced the value of all of the money that was already in circulation in proportion to how much that 'printing' increased the supply - that is the very definition of 'inflation'.

Mike

Reuters (April 16): Americans are spending coronavirus checks on rent and groceries (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-relief/americans-are-spending-coronavirus-checks-on-rent-and-groceries-idUSKBN21Y2YF)

Two weeks ago last Friday, after most stimulus payments had either been delivered by direct deposit, paper check, or debit card (more on that later), I was in the traditional 1985-model non-supercenter Walmart in Jackson, Ky. They did not have one single solitary television in stock. Not even any displays. At least a month prior, they had been well-stocked. I think I know where a bunch of stimulus money went, given that TVs had sold out.

And speaking of the physical distribution of the money, I remember reading about a controversy over the inclusion of the president's name on the checks. Why, then, were payments being made via debit card? What was the determining factor in who got a paper check vs. who got a debit card? Did the Treasury opt to send debit cards to keep from having to put the president's name on the checks?
The President cannot legally sign Treasury checks, so they had his name put on the "For" line.
Its probably for the best that the President can't sign those checks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 02, 2020, 09:51:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 02, 2020, 04:19:26 PM
The whole point of the stimulus checks was to stimulate the economy by spending money.  So if people went out and spent it on televisions, enamel-wear pots and car repairs, that was the entire idea.

That is why they were sent to everyone under a certain income level - and not just those who had financial problems.

But my understanding is that more people are saving instead of spending, and that is negating part of the reason for the stimulus.  That could be why the IRS is sending debit cards to "qualified individuals without bank information on file"  whose last tax returns were filed to IRS service centers in Andover, Mass., and Austin, Texas."

https://money.com/stimulus-check-payment-debit-card/

It's harder to save it when it is on a debit card.
You can still use it for things you'd buy anyways and save the money you would have normally spent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 02, 2020, 07:17:40 PM
Quote from: GaryV on June 02, 2020, 06:26:58 PM
We got a check, with Trump's name printed on it, not a signature.

Since Trump isn't authorized to sign Treasury checks. Nor is Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, though his signature -- much more legible than Trump's -- appears on at least the latest $1, $5, $10, and $20 bills. I think the economic impact checks have the printed signature of the current Treasurer of the United States, Jovita Carranza.

There is no current Treasurer of the United States; Carranza resigned to take over the Small Business Administration, succeeding the WWE's Linda McMahon. The position of Treasurer is vacant about as often as it's not; it is a political position whose job duties include overseeing the agencies that produce paper money and coins, though each of these have a director and are staffed with civil service employees who actually do the work. Its only real importance is furnishing a signature to be printed on the left half of paper money. (I am surprised that a President hasn't ordered his own signature to appear there instead.)

Steven Mnuchin's signature looks like that of a five-year-old. Not that his predecessor Jeop J. Jaul Jacob J. Lew had one that was any better.

Quote from: vdeane on June 02, 2020, 09:51:25 PM
Quote
It's harder to save it when it is on a debit card.
You can still use it for things you'd buy anyways and save the money you would have normally spent.

I'd imagine a bank could do an ACH pull to transfer the money off of it into a real account.

I despise getting prepaid debit cards, as it's always a pain to get the random loose change off of it when the card is nearly exhausted. Asking a cashier to charge 39¢ on one debit card and the remainder on another is mortifyingly assholish. I usually try to do this at a self-checkout when it's not busy. Of course, the other option is to simply forfeit the unused change value and discard it, but that's what the card issuer wants...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: mgk920 on June 03, 2020, 06:26:16 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
Quote
Since Trump isn't authorized to sign Treasury checks. Nor is Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, though his signature -- much more legible than Trump's -- appears on at least the latest $1, $5, $10, and $20 bills. I think the economic impact checks have the printed signature of the current Treasurer of the United States, Jovita Carranza.

There is no current Treasurer of the United States; Carranza resigned to take over the Small Business Administration, succeeding the WWE's Linda McMahon. The position of Treasurer is vacant about as often as it's not; it is a political position whose job duties include overseeing the agencies that produce paper money and coins, though each of these have a director and are staffed with civil service employees who actually do the work. Its only real importance is furnishing a signature to be printed on the left half of paper money. (I am surprised that a President hasn't ordered his own signature to appear there instead.)

Steven Mnuchin's signature looks like that of a five-year-old. Not that his predecessor Jeop J. Jaul Jacob J. Lew had one that was any better.

Mnuchin's legal signature looks like a simple horizontal line with a couple of slight waves in it, so he had to print it out longhand for the banknotes.

As for me, because I owed the last few tax cycles (F***ING Unaffordable Care Act!!!   :verymad: ), a paper check showed up in my mailbox a few weeks ago.  I simply deposited it to be spent on recurring bills, as I would any other funds that are in that account.

Mike
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 03, 2020, 06:55:49 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
Steven Mnuchin's signature looks like that of a five-year-old. Not that his predecessor Jeop J. Jaul Jacob J. Lew had one that was any better.

I thought messy signatures were a sign of importance. The messier it gets, the higher up you probably are, or at least think you are.


Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
I despise getting prepaid debit cards, as it's always a pain to get the random loose change off of it when the card is nearly exhausted. Asking a cashier to charge 39¢ on one debit card and the remainder on another is mortifyingly assholish. I usually try to do this at a self-checkout when it's not busy. Of course, the other option is to simply forfeit the unused change value and discard it, but that's what the card issuer wants...

Hmm. I can't say I've ever used 2 debit cards for the same purchase, but I have used 2 gift cards on various occasions, and thought nothing of it. I guess I'm not sure what the difference is (if any) from a cashier standpoint, but I've never felt like it was that terrible or embarrassing of a thing to do. It happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 03, 2020, 07:52:02 AM
The latest quarantine requirements by state:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-reopening-many-still-require-215946935.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 03, 2020, 09:10:26 AM
Sweden's epidemiologist admits he got it wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 03, 2020, 10:03:03 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 02, 2020, 04:19:26 PM
The whole point of the stimulus checks was to stimulate the economy by spending money.  So if people went out and spent it on televisions, enamel-wear pots and car repairs, that was the entire idea.

The whole point of the stimulus checks was "To provide emergency assistance" [S.3548 - CARES Act (https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3548/text) / 116th Congress (2019-2020)].

Quote from: Duke87 on June 02, 2020, 08:43:55 PM
I find the whole question of "what did you spend your stimulus check on?" to be nonsensical. We got our money direct deposited into our bank account. Pretty much everything we spend any money on ultimately comes out of the same bank account. Asking what we spent the stimulus money on is a little bit like asking which glass on someone's table the milk from a particular cow at the dairy farm ended up in - that's not how it works, you can't map a particular output to a particular input. Dollars in the bank account don't have individual identities.

If I were asked a multiple choice question about this I'd probably say we spent it on our mortgage since that is our largest single expense. But that's not a meaningful answer. I can't give a meaningful answer.

It's a sensible question.  If my parents hadn't received that check, then they wouldn't have bought a new enamel-wear pot.  They therefore can be said to have spent the check on cookwear.  As Max Rockatansky pointed out, if he hadn't received that check, then he wouldn't have bought a bicycle.  He therefore can be said to have spent the check on a new bike.  Some people, if they hadn't received that check, wouldn't have been able to afford the next month's rent.  They therefore can be said to have spent the check on rent, groceries, utilities, etc.

Quote from: vdeane on June 02, 2020, 09:51:25 PM
You can still use it for things you'd buy anyways and save the money you would have normally spent.

Effectively, then, you'd be putting your stimulus check into savings.

Quote from: webny99 on June 03, 2020, 06:55:49 AM
I thought messy signatures were a sign of importance. The messier it gets, the higher up you probably are, or at least think you are.

Years ago, I used to have a complicated, hard-to-recreate signature.  But, when my job later had me signing my name multiple times every day, I changed it up to something with a LOT fewer strokes.  It's basically just a very stylized version of my initials, and it takes me less than one second to complete.  I suspect a lot of prominent people with famous signatures have messy or illegible ones because they have to sign their name so many times during a given week that anything neat and composed would quickly grow tiresome.

FWIW, I still have to remember how to sign my name the "old" way, because that's the signature in my passport.  When I cross into Mexico and get my papers at the customs office, I'm instructed to sign my name the same way it appears in my passport.  Hence, when I then proceed to get my vehicle import paperwork, the signature on my driver's license and vehicle documents does not match the signature on my passport and tourist card.   :-/

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 03, 2020, 07:52:02 AM
The latest quarantine requirements by state:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-reopening-many-still-require-215946935.html

We have good friends who are going on family vacation next week.  They're renting a camper to tow behind their pickup and going to Wyoming.  Along the way, they plan to camp, hike, see family.  One thing they've mentioned is that so much of Wyoming is federal land, many of the places they'd like to visit are still shut down due to federal orders.  However, for other states such as South Dakota, it's been easier to find places they're able to visit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheGrassGuy on June 03, 2020, 10:23:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 03, 2020, 09:10:26 AM
Sweden's epidemiologist admits he got it wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

...because he was asked a loaded question. He clarified this himself later, what he meant was that while he still thinks the Swedish strategy was solid as a whole there are improvements
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 03, 2020, 10:34:40 AM
Quote from: TheGrassGuy on June 03, 2020, 10:23:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 03, 2020, 09:10:26 AM
Sweden's epidemiologist admits he got it wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

...because he was asked a loaded question. He clarified this himself later, what he meant was that while he still thinks the Swedish strategy was solid as a whole there are improvements

And reading further into the article clearly conveyed that wasn't an admission of failure.  I'm not saying I agree/disagree with Sweden's take but it would be nice to have a break down beyond a headline title.  Even the headline title isn't "an absolute admission of failure."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 03, 2020, 10:35:24 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 03, 2020, 10:03:03 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 02, 2020, 04:19:26 PM
The whole point of the stimulus checks was to stimulate the economy by spending money.  So if people went out and spent it on televisions, enamel-wear pots and car repairs, that was the entire idea.

The whole point of the stimulus checks was "To provide emergency assistance" [S.3548 - CARES Act (https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3548/text) / 116th Congress (2019-2020)].



That's the title of the bill, which is often nonsense.

Read various narratives about the reason for the stimulus.  It was to provide help yes, but it was also sent to people who didn't really need it so they would spent money and keep the economy going.  The same thing was done in 2008.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on June 03, 2020, 12:17:43 PM
Re spending of stimulus checks...as with many things, there isn't a single answer.  Some people deposited directly into a savings account.  Some people spent it on everyday expenses - either out of need or out of frugality or whatever, which as mentioned is basically savings.  Some spent it on one-time wants.

I did about 50/50...I spent half on new camera equipment that I had wanted but wasn't really saving for, and the other half put directly into savings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 03, 2020, 12:45:42 PM
If I hadn't gotten the stimulus check, my property taxes would have remained unpaid, and I would be driving my wife's vehicle when I needed to go somewhere. I spent that money on things I couldn't afford had I not gotten it, so I can very easily identify where mine went.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 03, 2020, 02:30:55 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 03, 2020, 07:52:02 AM
The latest quarantine requirements by state:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-reopening-many-still-require-215946935.html
I think it's interesting that so many states have quarantine requirements specific to states like NY, where we have things largely under control, and completely ignore the new hot spots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 03, 2020, 02:34:34 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 03, 2020, 02:30:55 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 03, 2020, 07:52:02 AM
The latest quarantine requirements by state:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-reopening-many-still-require-215946935.html
I think it's interesting that so many states have quarantine requirements specific to states like NY, where we have things largely under control, and completely ignore the new hot spots.

Apparently Florida just dropped the requirement for Californians.  I find that odd since Los Angeles County and the surrounding area seems to be the worst off right now as a hot spot.  I would imagine that probably has a lot to do with Snow Bird season in sunbelt states like Florida as to why New York was emphasized. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 03, 2020, 05:26:17 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 03, 2020, 06:26:16 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
Steven Mnuchin's signature looks like that of a five-year-old. Not that his predecessor Jeop J. Jaul Jacob J. Lew had one that was any better.

Mnuchin's legal signature looks like a simple horizontal line with a couple of slight waves in it, so he had to print it out longhand for the banknotes.

He didn't have to. There is a ceremony whenever a new Treasurer or Secretary of the Treasury is sworn in where they sign a special card (it looks like a diploma) and that's turned over to the BEP to copy onto the engraving plates. If Mnuchin drew a dick on the card, then that'd ostensibly be what's printed on the right half of the bills.

The Bush administration used to bring out a gigantic $10 bill, the size of those novelty checks, and have them sign that.

President Obama brought a bit of levity to the process by making fun of Treasury Secretary nominee Jacob Lew's signature, which was at the time just a spiral. He joked that he asked Lew to clean it up because otherwise it'd "debase our currency".

It doesn't look like Lew took Obama too seriously.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/Jacob_J_Lew_Signature.svg/231px-Jacob_J_Lew_Signature.svg.png)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Jacob_Lew_new_money_signature.png)

Quote from: webny99 on June 03, 2020, 06:55:49 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
Steven Mnuchin's signature looks like that of a five-year-old. Not that his predecessor Jeop J. Jaul Jacob J. Lew had one that was any better.

I thought messy signatures were a sign of importance. The messier it gets, the higher up you probably are, or at least think you are.

I've found that mine's actually gotten neater as I've gotten older, simply because I've practiced signing my name quickly while maintaining legibility. It baffles my coworkers, most of whom just scribble to get it done faster.

I hope my signature getting neater doesn't mean I'm getting less important as I get older. By age 65 I'd be signing in perfect Series E(M) and not even my vacuum cleaner would take me seriously.

Quote
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
I despise getting prepaid debit cards, as it's always a pain to get the random loose change off of it when the card is nearly exhausted. Asking a cashier to charge 39¢ on one debit card and the remainder on another is mortifyingly assholish. I usually try to do this at a self-checkout when it's not busy. Of course, the other option is to simply forfeit the unused change value and discard it, but that's what the card issuer wants...

Hmm. I can't say I've ever used 2 debit cards for the same purchase, but I have used 2 gift cards on various occasions, and thought nothing of it. I guess I'm not sure what the difference is (if any) from a cashier standpoint, but I've never felt like it was that terrible or embarrassing of a thing to do. It happens.

I don't know that it's necessarily much effort on the cashier's end. Mostly what I want to avoid is holding up the line by waiting for two separate transactions to authorize. I'd definitely feel better about that if I were, say, using two cards for ten dollars each. But one being a piddling amount of change feels like I'm wasting everyone's time.

I'd rather have a paper check to take to the bank and commingle with the rest of my money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 03, 2020, 08:02:55 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 03, 2020, 05:26:17 PM
I hope my signature getting neater doesn't mean I'm getting less important as I get older. By age 65 I'd be signing in perfect Series E(M) and not even my vacuum cleaner would take me seriously.
LOL...  :-D

Quote from: Scott5114 on June 03, 2020, 05:26:17 PM
Quote
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
I despise getting prepaid debit cards, as it's always a pain to get the random loose change off of it when the card is nearly exhausted. Asking a cashier to charge 39¢ on one debit card and the remainder on another is mortifyingly assholish. I usually try to do this at a self-checkout when it's not busy. Of course, the other option is to simply forfeit the unused change value and discard it, but that's what the card issuer wants...
Hmm. I can't say I've ever used 2 debit cards for the same purchase, but I have used 2 gift cards on various occasions, and thought nothing of it. I guess I'm not sure what the difference is (if any) from a cashier standpoint, but I've never felt like it was that terrible or embarrassing of a thing to do. It happens.
I don't know that it's necessarily much effort on the cashier's end. Mostly what I want to avoid is holding up the line by waiting for two separate transactions to authorize. I'd definitely feel better about that if I were, say, using two cards for ten dollars each. But one being a piddling amount of change feels like I'm wasting everyone's time.
I'd rather have a paper check to take to the bank and commingle with the rest of my money.

Yeah, I guess when we're talking about pennies it almost takes more than the cashier's time is worth to collect the 39¢ or whatever. Plus, if there's a line, keeping people waiting doesn't bring positive vibes, and people might start thinking you or the cashier are just being slow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 04, 2020, 07:48:28 AM
On April 10th during the worst of the outbreak, New York was reporting 69,179 weekly confirmed cases.  Since then weekly confirmed cases have dropped to 9,212 (an 87% reduction).  Compare that to California which on April 10th had 8,797 weekly confirmed cases and now has 18,156 cases (a 106% increase).  Right now California has roughly double the weekly confirmed cases as New York and they also have roughly double the population.  Short of a large herd immunity present in NY that is preventing new cases, you would expect the cases per capita to remain consistent between the two states moving forward.  So if New York were to jump back up to 70k weekly cases in their "˜second wave' California may see 140k weekly cases in their "˜second.... or depending how you look at it first wave'. 

(https://i.imgur.com/iOjysUq.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&region=US&doublingtime=3&location=California&location=New+York
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on June 04, 2020, 08:25:55 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 03, 2020, 05:26:17 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 03, 2020, 06:26:16 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
I despise getting prepaid debit cards, as it's always a pain to get the random loose change off of it when the card is nearly exhausted. Asking a cashier to charge 39¢ on one debit card and the remainder on another is mortifyingly assholish. I usually try to do this at a self-checkout when it's not busy. Of course, the other option is to simply forfeit the unused change value and discard it, but that's what the card issuer wants...

Hmm. I can't say I've ever used 2 debit cards for the same purchase, but I have used 2 gift cards on various occasions, and thought nothing of it. I guess I'm not sure what the difference is (if any) from a cashier standpoint, but I've never felt like it was that terrible or embarrassing of a thing to do. It happens.

I don't know that it's necessarily much effort on the cashier's end. Mostly what I want to avoid is holding up the line by waiting for two separate transactions to authorize. I'd definitely feel better about that if I were, say, using two cards for ten dollars each. But one being a piddling amount of change feels like I'm wasting everyone's time.

I'd rather have a paper check to take to the bank and commingle with the rest of my money.

If you're going to go to the bank either way, note that with a branded (Visa or MasterCard logo) paycard or prefunded general-purpose debit card, you can walk into any Visa- or MasterCard-member bank and withdraw any amount from the account, down to the last penny, with no fee and no account relationship at that bank required. 

At least, that's Visa and MasterCard's rule -- there are still some banks and some bank tellers who don't know it or won't observe it, particularly the part about no account relationship required.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 04, 2020, 08:41:50 AM
It really isn't that much effort to run two debit cards when checking out of a grocery store or some such.  I don't know why people are overthinking this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 04, 2020, 10:47:08 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 04, 2020, 08:41:50 AM
It really isn't that much effort to run two debit cards when checking out of a grocery store or some such.  I don't know why people are overthinking this.

People do it all the time with food stamp cards, paying the remaining balance with a credit/debit card.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 04, 2020, 11:38:37 AM
For a little good news (kind of) from yesterday's Washington Post, Canada's arctic Nunavut Territory remains the only coronavirus-free state-level jurisdiction in the U.S. and Canada. Its only reported Covid-19 case was determined to be a false positive.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-canada-nunavut-inuit-first-nations/2020/05/31/5bd6aeec-9f74-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html (may be paywalled)

But don't think of fleeing there to escape the virus. Severe travel restrictions, including 14-day quarantines in other territories and provinces before residents are allowed to return to Nunavut (even the territory's representative in the House of Commons), help keep Nunavut virus-free. Social distancing measures, including face masks, are an additional safeguard just in case the virus somehow manages to sneak in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 04, 2020, 11:33:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 04, 2020, 10:47:08 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 04, 2020, 08:41:50 AM
It really isn't that much effort to run two debit cards when checking out of a grocery store or some such.  I don't know why people are overthinking this.

People do it all the time with food stamp cards, paying the remaining balance with a credit/debit card.

The thing to be careful with is that if it is a debit card, the cashier needs to specifically make a charge for the remaining balance. Anything over will result in the card being declined and, depending on the terms, an overdraft fee being incurred.

This is distinct from credit-based gift cards which require no such effort on the part of the cashier - they will simply cap out at the remaining balance, and the POS system will respond by telling you you still owe the difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 05, 2020, 05:09:28 AM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on June 04, 2020, 08:25:55 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 03, 2020, 05:26:17 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on June 03, 2020, 06:26:16 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 02, 2020, 11:02:23 PM
I despise getting prepaid debit cards, as it's always a pain to get the random loose change off of it when the card is nearly exhausted. Asking a cashier to charge 39¢ on one debit card and the remainder on another is mortifyingly assholish. I usually try to do this at a self-checkout when it's not busy. Of course, the other option is to simply forfeit the unused change value and discard it, but that's what the card issuer wants...

Hmm. I can't say I've ever used 2 debit cards for the same purchase, but I have used 2 gift cards on various occasions, and thought nothing of it. I guess I'm not sure what the difference is (if any) from a cashier standpoint, but I've never felt like it was that terrible or embarrassing of a thing to do. It happens.

I don't know that it's necessarily much effort on the cashier's end. Mostly what I want to avoid is holding up the line by waiting for two separate transactions to authorize. I'd definitely feel better about that if I were, say, using two cards for ten dollars each. But one being a piddling amount of change feels like I'm wasting everyone's time.

I'd rather have a paper check to take to the bank and commingle with the rest of my money.

If you're going to go to the bank either way, note that with a branded (Visa or MasterCard logo) paycard or prefunded general-purpose debit card, you can walk into any Visa- or MasterCard-member bank and withdraw any amount from the account, down to the last penny, with no fee and no account relationship at that bank required. 

At least, that's Visa and MasterCard's rule -- there are still some banks and some bank tellers who don't know it or won't observe it, particularly the part about no account relationship required.

This is good to know, and something I'll try the next time i get one.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 04, 2020, 08:41:50 AM
It really isn't that much effort to run two debit cards when checking out of a grocery store or some such.  I don't know why people are overthinking this.

It's not about effort. It's about being considerate to the people in line behind me and not holding them up if it's not strictly necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 05, 2020, 10:21:50 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 04, 2020, 08:41:50 AM
It really isn't that much effort to run two debit cards when checking out of a grocery store or some such.  I don't know why people are overthinking this.

It's not that big of a deal for most POS systems, maybe an extra 30 seconds. Of course, you have to do it in the right order, and to not hold up the line while you tell the clerk to cancel the previous transaction so you can spend $1.23 on one card and then re-do the other one.

Remembering your exact balance is the tougher part...I'll type the remaining value from a gift card in my phone but then go home and use a Sharpie to write the balance on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 05, 2020, 10:35:34 AM
Quote from: formulanone on June 05, 2020, 10:21:50 AM
Remembering your exact balance is the tougher part...I'll type the remaining value from a gift card in my phone but then go home and use a Sharpie to write the balance on it.

If you're lucky, the cashier might do it for you. It's handy when they do this for gift cards.

(Forum Post# 799,999!  :awesomeface:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 05, 2020, 10:54:20 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 05, 2020, 10:35:34 AM
Quote from: formulanone on June 05, 2020, 10:21:50 AM
Remembering your exact balance is the tougher part...I'll type the remaining value from a gift card in my phone but then go home and use a Sharpie to write the balance on it.

If you're lucky, the cashier might do it for you. It's handy when they do this for gift cards.

(Forum Post# 799,999!  :awesomeface:)

They might be able to do that with in house gift cards, but pre-paid debit cards and third party gift cards?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 05, 2020, 04:07:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 05, 2020, 10:54:20 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 05, 2020, 10:35:34 AM
Quote from: formulanone on June 05, 2020, 10:21:50 AM
Remembering your exact balance is the tougher part...I'll type the remaining value from a gift card in my phone but then go home and use a Sharpie to write the balance on it.
If you're lucky, the cashier might do it for you. It's handy when they do this for gift cards.
(Forum Post# 799,999!  :awesomeface:)

They might be able to do that with in house gift cards, but pre-paid debit cards and third party gift cards?

Not sure - as I mentioned upthread, I've only ever done this with gift cards, and it never occurred to me that people might be doing it with debit cards, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 05, 2020, 05:21:28 PM
Gyms, bars, and schools will be able to reopen in California starting next week:

https://ktla.com/news/california/california-to-allow-schools-gyms-and-bars-to-reopen-next-week/

I do plan on finishing a round of garage weight training routines next week in addition to seeing how the pace of the gym is.  I'll post my thoughts whenever I get the opportunity to go back. 

Apparently Camping and some sports are part of the same thing. 

https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/health/2020/06/05/california-allow-reopening-schools-day-camps-bars-gyms-some-sports-starting-next-week/3158637001/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on June 05, 2020, 05:29:53 PM
In Washington State, Pierce County (Tacoma, surrounding suburbs) has entered phase 2. Bit earlier than I would have expected, honestly, but I doubt much will change in terms of how people will go about their daily life. Thurston County (Olympia, WA's capital, and surrounding suburbs) has been in phase 2 for a bit, and from what I've heard, restaurants and pubs have remained well below their capacity cap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 05, 2020, 05:54:11 PM
Haircuts in Michigan, a week from Monday.  Yee-hah!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 05, 2020, 11:09:49 PM
I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 05, 2020, 11:45:03 PM
Quote from: GaryV on June 05, 2020, 05:54:11 PM
Haircuts in Michigan, a week from Monday.  Yee-hah!


In my county, they can open June 10. My mom already has an appointment set up with her hairdresser for 8am that morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 06, 2020, 07:58:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 05, 2020, 11:09:49 PM
I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 06, 2020, 08:19:37 AM
Quote from: GaryV on June 06, 2020, 07:58:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 05, 2020, 11:09:49 PM
I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 06, 2020, 08:24:42 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 06, 2020, 08:19:37 AM
Quote from: GaryV on June 06, 2020, 07:58:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 05, 2020, 11:09:49 PM
I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.

Cases have gone down in most places. However, a decent number of places have gone up. Gallatin County, KY went up recently; who knows if yours is next?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 06, 2020, 08:29:16 AM
Quote from: 1 on June 06, 2020, 08:24:42 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 06, 2020, 08:19:37 AM
Quote from: GaryV on June 06, 2020, 07:58:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 05, 2020, 11:09:49 PM
I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.

Cases have gone down in most places. However, a decent number of places have gone up. Gallatin County, KY went up recently; who knows if yours is next?

But the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 06, 2020, 09:00:14 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 06, 2020, 08:19:37 AM
Quote from: GaryV on June 06, 2020, 07:58:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 05, 2020, 11:09:49 PM
I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.
It takes 2-3 weeks for things to become scary again. Do they have an ice rink to store bodies where you live?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 06, 2020, 09:12:41 AM
Quote from: GaryV on June 05, 2020, 05:54:11 PM
Haircuts in Michigan, a week from Monday.  Yee-hah!


I got my haircut this morning for the first time since February 29. Barbershops reopened May 29 here. Funny how it takes such troubled times to make you really appreciate the little things in life like haircuts. It wasn't ideal wearing a mask (I had to hold it to my face for part of the time), and the disposable plastic smock they used was rather hot, but those are trivial issues (especially the smock, since I normally come home and shower after a haircut anyway). I'm glad they reopened. There are plenty of small businesses out there that won't.

Next up will be to take the car for the state inspection. The place I normally go had a sign up saying they aren't open today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 06, 2020, 11:06:37 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 06, 2020, 09:12:41 AM
I got my haircut this morning for the first time since February 29. Barbershops reopened May 29 here. Funny how it takes such troubled times to make you really appreciate the little things in life like haircuts. It wasn't ideal wearing a mask (I had to hold it to my face for part of the time), and the disposable plastic smock they used was rather hot, but those are trivial issues (especially the smock, since I normally come home and shower after a haircut anyway). I'm glad they reopened. There are plenty of small businesses out there that won't.

One of them is the one-man barbershop I've used for many years. I just found out today he decided to retire, for his health and his family's. He was old enough to be thinking about retirement, so this is not a shock, though he put off his decision a week after he could've reopened.

My last haircut was in mid-March, just before barbershops in my region were shut down. I could use a haircut after almost three months, and will need to find another shop in the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 06, 2020, 11:27:24 AM
Oscar, I'm sure the place I go is too inconvenient for you–the Rose Hill Barber Shop in the strip mall at the intersection of Franconia Road and Rose Hill Drive. I got there at 7:45 this morning and was the first person on line (three others came before they opened at 8:00). It's at the far end of the shopping center just past Safeway. I'm pleased with the haircut I got today. My wife is complaining that it's too short, but I wanted it fairly short now that the weather is getting hotter and humid. The longer hair was driving me nuts.

When my brother and I were kids, we used to go to the Around the Corner Barber Shop on Annandale Road at its intersection with Route 50 (next to where the Jefferson Theatre used to be). It's still there–he went there again for a couple of years when he lived in Falls Church until he moved to Louisiana last spring. He spoke highly of it, even though none of the same barbers are there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ghYHZ on June 06, 2020, 12:24:49 PM
The inter-provincial borders here in the Maritimes and Newfoundland are still closed and you cannot cross into the adjacent province unless it's for essential travel and if you do get across you are required to isolate for 14 days. Trucking is exempt.

Our Charter of Rights (Constitution) allows for unimpeded travel across provincial borders. It's a federal jurisdiction but the provinces appear to be getting around it by declaring a health emergency (a provincial jurisdiction) and the feds seem to be looking the other way.

And the borders here might remain closed for the summer. Anecdotal.....but from news articles I've read  it appears most (including myself) are quite happy to leave as-is and keep the borders closed for now but there are going to be Charter (constitutional) challenges coming.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/n-b-p-e-i-n-l-territories-border-ban-ccla-court-challenge-1.5600235

Covid numbers here in the Maritimes are low. New Brunswick had an count of only 120 cases total and no deaths until last week when someone crossed from Quebec.....didn't self isolate and now's there's a new cluster in the Campbellton area. Now they have recorded a death so the ammunition's there to just keep the borders closed.

Nova Scotia had 61 deaths total but Covid did get into one Seniors Care Home here and 58 of the 61 deaths were in that one facility. Sad!

Prince Edward Island with only 27 cases is considering allowing cottage owners to apply to enter but they would have to isolate for 14 days both coming to PEI and upon return to their own province.....so only practicle if staying for the summer! 

But things are starting to reopen here (Nova Scotia) As of yesterday, June 5.....I can finally get a haircut and our favourite restaurant downtown also reopened last evening with a very spread-out patio. We were lucky to get a seat!
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on June 06, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
QuoteBut the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on June 06, 2020, 03:25:09 PM
NJ is moving to phase 2 (mostly) on June 15th with outdoor dining (only) and non-essential retail opening up at 50% capacity, along with barbers a few days later. New cases have consistently dropped below 1000/day for a few days now. I might have to put any summer trips to NC on hold. Cases there are slowly raising and they are consistently above 1000/day now. Today's NC numbers were more than DOUBLE what was reported in NJ. Keep in mind that NJ reports 2-3x the amount of daily testing NC does, so not a good trend down south.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on June 06, 2020, 05:42:22 PM
Updated death projections from covid19-projections.com this Saturday.

US projected mean: 188,662 (-11,468 from last week)

NY: 33,175 (+212)
NJ: 14,776 (-146)
CA: 13,429 (+527)
IL: 10,740 (-2,920)
PA: 9,876 (+219)
MA: 9,474 (-705)
FL: 7,400 (-263)
MI: 6,913 (+49)
OH: 6,799 (-1,359)
MD: 6,133 (+23)
TX: 5,442 (+264)
CT: 5,236 (+6)
GA: 5,029 (-380)
IN: 4,818 (-1,065)
LA: 4,376 (-314)
MN: 4,284 (-206)
VA: 3,834 (-1,266)
NC: 3,492 (-721)
AZ: 3,432 (-964)
CO: 3,132 (-963)
MS: 2,455 (-648)
MO: 2,387 (-27)
AL: 2,157 (-236)
SC: 1,984 (-201)
WA: 1,978 (+283)
WI: 1,765 (+233)
RI: 1,739 (-103)
IA: 1,607 (-657)
TN: 1,245 (+157)
KY: 1,239 (+214)
NM: 1,117 (-203)
NV: 928 (-19)
NH: 825 (-391)
DE: 724 (-219)
DC: 721 (-87)
AR: 598 (+43)
NE: 570 (-245)
OK: 532 (-61)
UT: 450 (+15)
KS: 413 (+30)
OR: 249 (+24)
PR: 203 (+16)
ND: 195 (-57)
SD: 183 (-115)
ME: 163 (+26)
WV: 154 (+25)
ID: 103 (-2)
VT: 64 (-2)
WY: 34 (-31)
MT: 22 (+1)
HI: 21 (-2)
Northern Mariana Islands: 20 (+16)
AK: 12 (Same)
US Virgin Islands: 8 (Same)
Guam: 7 (Same)

Drops in death projections in most states, with California having the highest gain, but we'll see how the Memorial Day holiday and the George Floyd protests could change this outbreak in the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 06, 2020, 07:21:44 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on June 06, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
QuoteBut the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.

I think that really depends on the individual.  In my case I've never exactly been the guy who has really exercised a ton of caution in their day-to-day life to begin with given how active I am.  To that end not being in the middle of the world during the entire pandemic hasn't been an option for me.  I was ruled essential with my job from Day 1 with the lock downs.  It wasn't even a question, I had to be at work given I manage emergency response as one of my primary job responsibilities.  To that end I've been around hundreds of people for the past three months, I can't imagine on that basis I haven't exposed to COVID numerous times regardless of PPE.  Further, my wife works in the behavioral health field and has been around people who have been sick since the beginning of the pandemic.  I think that the way I've always lived has had a influence on what I feel towards COVID-19 but even more so the fact that there hasn't been a "stay at home" for me.  Nonetheless, I'm very much happy getting out of the house and being active as much as possible.  At the very least I can get back out to most of hiking destinations with the parks reopening and back country drives that I enjoy given my work restrictions have lessened. 

With things like the gym the potential slow pace and PPE requirements are a bigger concern over safety to me.  Then again I was going to the gym until they day they closed, it was slow then and I imagine it will be for some time after reopening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on June 06, 2020, 07:29:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 06, 2020, 07:21:44 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on June 06, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
QuoteBut the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.

I think that really depends on the individual.  In my case I've never exactly been the guy who has really exercised a ton of caution in their day-to-day life to begin with given how active I am.  To that end not being in the middle of the world during the entire pandemic hasn't been an option for me.  I was ruled essential with my job from Day 1 with the lock downs.  It wasn't even a question, I had to be at work given I manage emergency response as one of my primary job responsibilities.  To that end I've been around hundreds of people for the past three months, I can't imagine on that basis I haven't exposed to COVID numerous times regardless of PPE.  Further, my wife works in the behavioral health field and has been around people who have been sick since the beginning of the pandemic.  I think that the way I've always lived has had a influence on what I feel towards COVID-19 but even more so the fact that there hasn't been a "stay at home" for me.  Nonetheless, I'm very much happy getting out of the house and being active as much as possible.  At the very least I can get back out to most of hiking destinations with the parks reopening and back country drives that I enjoy given my work restrictions have lessened. 

With things like the gym the potential slow pace and PPE requirements are a bigger concern over safety to me.  Then again I was going to the gym until they day they closed, it was slow then and I imagine it will be for some time after reopening.

I have a friend that has worked with the public the entire time that thinks similarly.  He has always gone to the gym almost daily, and he feels that he has less of a chance of catching it at the gym than at work.  It makes sense that you both think that way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 06, 2020, 07:33:19 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on June 06, 2020, 07:29:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 06, 2020, 07:21:44 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on June 06, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
QuoteBut the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.

I think that really depends on the individual.  In my case I've never exactly been the guy who has really exercised a ton of caution in their day-to-day life to begin with given how active I am.  To that end not being in the middle of the world during the entire pandemic hasn't been an option for me.  I was ruled essential with my job from Day 1 with the lock downs.  It wasn't even a question, I had to be at work given I manage emergency response as one of my primary job responsibilities.  To that end I've been around hundreds of people for the past three months, I can't imagine on that basis I haven't exposed to COVID numerous times regardless of PPE.  Further, my wife works in the behavioral health field and has been around people who have been sick since the beginning of the pandemic.  I think that the way I've always lived has had a influence on what I feel towards COVID-19 but even more so the fact that there hasn't been a "stay at home" for me.  Nonetheless, I'm very much happy getting out of the house and being active as much as possible.  At the very least I can get back out to most of hiking destinations with the parks reopening and back country drives that I enjoy given my work restrictions have lessened. 

With things like the gym the potential slow pace and PPE requirements are a bigger concern over safety to me.  Then again I was going to the gym until they day they closed, it was slow then and I imagine it will be for some time after reopening.

I have a friend that has worked with the public the entire time that thinks similarly.  He has always gone to the gym almost daily, and he feels that he has less of a chance of catching it at the gym than at work.  It makes sense that you both think that way.

In my case I can definitely say that I would encounter less people at the gym as opposed to work even if times were normal.  I can't fathom anyone but the regulars will end up showing up to the gym.  Everyone shows up to work in addition to everyone who has business there, really on that front there has been almost no fall off.  We didn't adopt mask requirements until Mid-April and COVID-19 had been out here in California at least since January (so far that's the proven start time in California). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on June 06, 2020, 11:07:29 PM
I must start out by saying that originally I thought a possible second wave would not happen at all, but the events of the past week changed that for me. Now I'm thinking a second wave is all but assured.

With all these protests going around I'm betting we're going to see a large increase in cases in the big cities where covid was dying out, due to a lack of social distancing in these protests. If that stupid police officer had not murdered Floyd, I'd bet covid would be inconsequential by July. Since he did, I'm predicting covid will stick around for at least until September.

Don't get me wrong, but I'm not trying to discredit the protests surrounding Floyd's death (In fact, I support the black community's right to speak out about it) but now isn't really the time to meet up in large groups and protest traditionally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 07, 2020, 12:46:16 AM
Quote from: CoreySamson on June 06, 2020, 11:07:29 PM
I must start out by saying that originally I thought a possible second wave would not happen at all, but the events of the past week changed that for me. Now I'm thinking a second wave is all but assured.

With all these protests going around I'm betting we're going to see a large increase in cases in the big cities where covid was dying out, due to a lack of social distancing in these protests. If that stupid police officer had not murdered Floyd, I'd bet covid would be inconsequential by July. Since he did, I'm predicting covid will stick around for at least until September.

Don't get me wrong, but I'm not trying to discredit the protests surrounding Floyd's death (In fact, I support the black community's right to speak out about it) but now isn't really the time to meet up in large groups and protest traditionally.

This topic fascinates me.  Flu pandemics seem to happen in waves.  I would love to know why.  We've never had a coronavirus pandemic (that we know of), so we don't know how they behave.  There's no strong evidence of waves yet.  I heard an interview yesterday with someone saying that we're still in the first wave, if this happens in waves.  The numbers in hard-hit areas have gone down, but that's probably a result of distancing.  Since the numbers were so high to begin with, it's hard to keep those numbers growing ever-faster unless you have people intentionally crowding together, and reducing mobility will make it hard for the numbers not to fall by a lot.  If this is a wave, then a few months after it starts the numbers will go down regardless of what we do.  We're just now getting into that period.  If it's a wave, then it will probably come back in another wave.  A wave pattern would be dangerous, because it will make people feel safe when they're not and let more quiet spread happen like it did when the virus first got here.  I would love to know why some viruses have waves, but the projections seem to be calling for a "slow burn" scenario, in which the numbers don't rise, fall to very low levels, and rise again, but just keep going at a slower pace than the first onslaught.  The problem with the projections (besides not knowing if they're accurate) is that they don't go very far into the potential "second wave" season, which would probably start between late August and early November.

A slow burn would probably be a best case scenario (of those that are realistic), because it would keep everyone aware of the ongoing danger with the sustained numbers of diagnoses and hospitalizations, but it wouldn't overwhelm our medical capacity during the upcoming flu season.  I suppose it could be a wave pattern with a high base, not falling to near zero but to a slow burn and then exploding in a second wave later.  I've never gotten a flu shot, but I plan to this year.  If I can keep from catching the flu and maybe needing some hospital space at a time when it might be short, or infecting someone else who might need a hospital space, I want to do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 07, 2020, 04:06:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 06, 2020, 07:21:44 PMBut the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

Including even the most basic threshold of knowing he exists. Part of why covid was able to blow up so bad in places like New York is that the virus had entered the local population and begun spreading for... at least a month before we really figured out that anything out of the ordinary was amiss.

February 2020, people would do things like go to work or go hang out with their friends while coughing but otherwise feeling fine, figuring "eh it's just a little cough". And even if the idea that it might be covid crossed their mind, they wouldn't have been able to get tested to confirm this since testing capacity just wasn't there.

Now that we're aware of the bogeyman and have the ability to identify his presence, that coughing person will now - if they have any sense - stay away from others and go get tested. Thus reducing their ability to spread the virus if they in fact have it.

Quote from: wxfree on June 07, 2020, 12:46:16 AM
This topic fascinates me.  Flu pandemics seem to happen in waves.  I would love to know why. 

Influenza's transmissibility has a strong seasonal variation. Exactly why it has a strong seasonal variation is complex and not fully understood, but it does have the effect of making influenza pandemics die out in the summer only to return in the fall. What's actually happening in the summer though isn't that the virus is gone - only that since it is more difficult to transmit, fewer people catch it and those that do have less severe cases of it.

There is reason to believe that covid's transmissibility may also vary seasonally, but we won't have any confirmation of if this is true until fall.


Beyond the seasonal aspect, though, there's the simple reality that the human population is not a big well-mixed group that a virus can spread steadily throughout. Instead, people have relatively fixed small groups others which they regularly spend time around. Once one person in such a group becomes infected, it can rapidly spread to others in the group, but it will lose momentum once it's infected everyone in the group. It then requires one of those people to spread it to someone outside the group in order to keep going. Some groups of people overlap more than others, so the aggregate impact of this is that a virus can spread a bunch among overlapping groups, but then slow down and hit resistance when continuing to spread means it has to jump between two people who don't normally spend much time around each other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 08, 2020, 04:15:52 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

Kind of what I thought from the beginning.

From the article:
Quote"From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,"  Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."

Quote"We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,"  she said. "They're following asymptomatic cases. They're following contacts. And they're not finding secondary transmission onward. It's very rare."

If asymptomatic spread proves to not be a main driver of coronavirus transmission, the policy implications could be tremendous. A report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published on April 1 cited the "potential for presymptomatic transmission"  as a reason for the importance of social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on June 08, 2020, 04:20:41 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?
No.  It's called being careful until science figures it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:42:41 PM
Quote from: Rothman on June 08, 2020, 04:20:41 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?
No.  It's called being careful until science figures it out.

It sounds to me like they just figured it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on June 08, 2020, 05:01:21 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:42:41 PM
Quote from: Rothman on June 08, 2020, 04:20:41 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?
No.  It's called being careful until science figures it out.

It sounds to me like they just figured it out.
Um...exactly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 05:11:26 PM
Quote from: Rothman on June 08, 2020, 05:01:21 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:42:41 PM
Quote from: Rothman on June 08, 2020, 04:20:41 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?
No.  It's called being careful until science figures it out.

It sounds to me like they just figured it out.
Um...exactly.

Which more or less what has been happening since the lockdowns started.  Ergo what was discussed upthread about the amount of knowledge about the Virus increasing massively since the beginning of the year.   Question is now, will the CDC and other health officials agree with the WHO?  I suspect many will in time but I wouldn't expect mask requirements to disappear overnight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 08, 2020, 05:34:18 PM
^ Wouldn't the mask requirements still be useful, to deal with people who (a) are symptomatic but don't recognize the symptoms (especially in their early stages), or (b) are jerks who know or suspect they're symptomatic but don't give a crap, but can be shamed or forced into wearing masks anyway?

The governor where I live was late to the game in imposing mask requirements. That's consistent with his overall, sometimes infuriatingly cautious approach, including his being slow to remove requirements (which I expect to include this one).

Today's Washington Post (print edition) has an article on how nudists are responding to facemask requirements. One of them joked that they'll have tan lines, just not in the usual places. Others, who work hard to acquire perfect tans with no tan lines, might push back harder against mask requirements now that there's (not terribly conclusive, IMO) evidence against such requirements.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 05:39:52 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 08, 2020, 05:34:18 PM
^ Wouldn't the mask requirements still be useful, to deal with people who (a) are symptomatic but don't recognize the symptoms (especially in their early stages), or (b) are jerks who know or suspect they're symptomatic but don't give a crap?

The governor where I live was late to the game in imposing mask requirements. That's consistent with his overall, sometimes infuriatingly cautious approach, including his being slow to remove requirements (which I expect to include this one).

Today's Washington Post (print edition) has an article on how nudists are responding to facemask requirements. One of them joked that they'll have tan lines, just not in the usual places. Others, who work hard to acquire perfect tans with no tan lines, might push back harder against mask requirements now that there's (not terribly conclusive, IMO) evidence against such requirements.

Quite possibly, but I suspect with the people who don't care they simply aren't going to wear a mask anyways.  Personally having people who aren't feeling well stay home remains the biggest priority in my view.  Most employers I deal with have strict rules right now that relax things like call-outs/attendance policies for not feeling well and sometimes increased sick leave. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 08, 2020, 06:09:11 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 08, 2020, 04:15:52 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

Kind of what I thought from the beginning.

From the article:
Quote"From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,"  Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."

Quote"We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,"  she said. "They're following asymptomatic cases. They're following contacts. And they're not finding secondary transmission onward. It's very rare."

If asymptomatic spread proves to not be a main driver of coronavirus transmission, the policy implications could be tremendous. A report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published on April 1 cited the "potential for presymptomatic transmission"  as a reason for the importance of social distancing.
There may be some fine line between "no symptoms" and "no symptoms yet". But given that virus seems to be nested deep in lungs, coughing may be a big part of transmission. Fine print - cough from dust or allergies may still be enough to bring that deep infection to the surface.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on June 08, 2020, 07:04:13 PM
Yeah, well, they also once said that "if excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one" (W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954).  So who knows?

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 07:20:11 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on June 08, 2020, 07:04:13 PM
Yeah, well, they also once said that "if excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one" (W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954).  So who knows?

Man...tobacco is really one of those situations where it is hard not to look back and understand how people in the general populace couldn't figure out that they were harming themselves willingly (at least at first). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 08, 2020, 07:53:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 07:20:11 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on June 08, 2020, 07:04:13 PM
Yeah, well, they also once said that "if excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one" (W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954).  So who knows?

Man...tobacco is really one of those situations where it is hard not to look back and understand how people in the general populace couldn't figure out that they were harming themselves willingly (at least at first). 

Thalidomide was prescribed in the 1950's for pregnant women for nausea, but caused serious birth defects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 08:10:09 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 08, 2020, 07:53:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 07:20:11 PM
Quote from: wanderer2575 on June 08, 2020, 07:04:13 PM
Yeah, well, they also once said that "if excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one" (W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954).  So who knows?

Man...tobacco is really one of those situations where it is hard not to look back and understand how people in the general populace couldn't figure out that they were harming themselves willingly (at least at first). 

Thalidomide was prescribed in the 1950's for pregnant women for nausea, but caused serious birth defects.

My personal favorites are giving Cocaine for pain/aches and opium for headaches (Old West Style).   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 08, 2020, 08:37:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 08, 2020, 06:09:11 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 08, 2020, 04:15:52 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

Kind of what I thought from the beginning.

From the article:
Quote"From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,"  Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."

Quote"We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,"  she said. "They're following asymptomatic cases. They're following contacts. And they're not finding secondary transmission onward. It's very rare."

If asymptomatic spread proves to not be a main driver of coronavirus transmission, the policy implications could be tremendous. A report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published on April 1 cited the "potential for presymptomatic transmission"  as a reason for the importance of social distancing.
There may be some fine line between "no symptoms" and "no symptoms yet". But given that virus seems to be nested deep in lungs, coughing may be a big part of transmission. Fine print - cough from dust or allergies may still be enough to bring that deep infection to the surface.
Yeah, all of this.  If someone has symptoms, but they're mild enough that they don't realize they're sick, does the "not really asymptomatic" distinction really matter to anyone who isn't an epidemiologist?  I would say no.  Plus "rare" is not "never".  In any case, if simply isolating those with symptoms and their contacts is all that needs to be done, one would think that the countries in East Asia wouldn't be seeing second waves right now.  The point is, there may be a lot less asymptomatic transmission than we thought (certainly good news), but we must not let our guard down because of that.

Given that the revelations about how easily the virus spreads in the air and how surface transmission isn't nearly as big a factor as the "experts" thought (which I think is a rather "well, duh" moment due to how it was spreading) haven't led to policy changes, I'm not sure I would expect this to, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 08, 2020, 11:07:59 PM
Yeah, not so fast about the to-do being pointless:

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1270069131652427776
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 11:11:33 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 08, 2020, 11:07:59 PM
Yeah, not so fast about the to-do being pointless:

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1270069131652427776

Who's that?  Some epidemiologist I assume?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 08, 2020, 11:20:12 PM
I guess. I got it from a retweet. I had no idea you could just copy the link and the tweet would automatically display.
If you click on it he goes into some additional detail about PRE-symptomatic vs. asymptomatic.

Basically, you can have the virus, not know it, and spread it before you have symptoms. Your symptoms may show up after you've already spread it to others. So, that's why saying "asymptomatic spread is rare" is confusing, problematic, and probably not as positive as it sounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 08, 2020, 11:26:14 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 08, 2020, 11:20:12 PM
I guess. I got it from a retweet. I had no idea you could just copy the link and the tweet would automatically display.
If you click on it he goes into some additional detail about PRE-symptomatic vs. asymptomatic.

Basically, you can have the virus, not know it, and spread it before you have symptoms. Your symptoms may show up after you've already spread it to others. So, that's why saying "asymptomatic spread is rare" is confusing, problematic, and probably not as positive as it sounds.

Yeah, but it would be nice to know who the person saying it is.  For all I know that's just some random Twitter person when I could be someone who holds qualifications.  Twitter doesn't really leave any meat on the bone to glean really any real information. 

Edit:  Apparently that's the Dean of Brown University's Public Health division.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 09, 2020, 12:44:13 AM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?
I mean I've left my town a few times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 09, 2020, 01:10:49 AM
A study from the Imperial College London published in Nature examined the stay-at-home orders and estimates that 60 million coronavirus infections were prevented in the United States by the shutdowns.

Washington Post has a summary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/

So yes, the measures did prevent wider spread and they were the right move, even if a bit late. It's better to be overly cautious and trudging through a pandemic without a full-blown system meltdown like Brazil is currently experiencing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 09, 2020, 01:14:01 AM
Quote from: vdeane on June 08, 2020, 08:37:06 PM
Yeah, all of this.  If someone has symptoms, but they're mild enough that they don't realize they're sick, does the "not really asymptomatic" distinction really matter to anyone who isn't an epidemiologist?

It's very key here to understand exactly what "asymptomatic" means - it means absolutely no symptoms. It does not mean symptoms sufficiently mild that you don't really notice or think much about them.

Recall the example here of the woman from China who got a few Germans sick on a business trip. The German patients reported that they didn't notice any symptoms from the Chinese woman. The woman herself stated she didn't start feeling sick until she was on the plane back to China. Buuuut CCTV footage showed her coughing while she was in Germany. In other words, she wasn't actually asymptomatic.

So, if this new conclusion from WHO holds any water... it's potentially dangerous if people treat it as permission to live their lives as normal so long as they think they feel fine. Because no, it is not that. If you wake up one day and find yourself occasionally coughing a little, you can't just go out and about your business like you would have in February. You need to assume you might have covid and stay home until the coughing stops or you get a negative test result back. The fact that people weren't staying home unless they felt seriously sick (or in many cases, were not being allowed by their employers to stay home unless they felt seriously sick) is how the initial wave of infections got out of control, and that will happen again if we don't isolate the mild cases along with the severe ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 09, 2020, 08:23:34 AM
Quote from: Bruce on June 09, 2020, 01:10:49 AM
A study from the Imperial College London published in Nature examined the stay-at-home orders and estimates that 60 million coronavirus infections were prevented in the United States by the shutdowns.

Imperial College was the organization that predicted back in March that we'd have an unrealistically high number of deaths. The man behind the March study has been completely discredited now, so I have a very hard time trusting Imperial College.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 09, 2020, 08:49:04 AM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?

Was it safe to be there in the first place?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 09, 2020, 09:27:13 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 09, 2020, 08:23:34 AM
Quote from: Bruce on June 09, 2020, 01:10:49 AM
A study from the Imperial College London published in Nature examined the stay-at-home orders and estimates that 60 million coronavirus infections were prevented in the United States by the shutdowns.

Imperial College was the organization that predicted back in March that we'd have an unrealistically high number of deaths. The man behind the March study has been completely discredited now, so I have a very hard time trusting Imperial College.
The problem of many catastrofic forecasts is that once people take them seriously they start acting -  and that averts disaster. If there would be no lockdowns and mask orders, those numbers could very well become reality. And of course those who predicted and who acted are now labeled as panic mongers. Well, sort of - they did their job right and things were only that bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 09, 2020, 10:31:41 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 09, 2020, 12:44:13 AM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?
I mean I've left my town a few times.

Something tells me your town wasn't hit nearly as hard as New Rochelle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 11:35:46 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 09, 2020, 08:49:04 AM

Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?

Was it safe to be there in the first place?

Nope.  It has never been "safe" to be anywhere.  Risk is inherent in the world.

"Until it's safe" means "Never"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 11:45:45 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 11:35:46 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 09, 2020, 08:49:04 AM

Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?

Was it safe to be there in the first place?

Nope.  It has never been "safe" to be anywhere.  Risk is inherent in the world.

"Until it's safe" means "Never"

And yet somehow we live in the age of "safety."   It's hard not to notice that almost everyone throws that term around though it was a birth right. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 11:55:35 AM
My wife recently saw a post on social media someone had made.  It included snapshots of their county's restrictions:  gatherings limited to 15 people, and protests limited to 100 people.  So the person announced that there would be a protest held in their back yard; there would be meat from the grill, so please bring toppings you're opposed to and want to protest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 09, 2020, 01:43:57 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on June 09, 2020, 01:14:01 AM
Quote from: vdeane on June 08, 2020, 08:37:06 PM
Yeah, all of this.  If someone has symptoms, but they're mild enough that they don't realize they're sick, does the "not really asymptomatic" distinction really matter to anyone who isn't an epidemiologist?

It's very key here to understand exactly what "asymptomatic" means - it means absolutely no symptoms. It does not mean symptoms sufficiently mild that you don't really notice or think much about them.

Recall the example here of the woman from China who got a few Germans sick on a business trip. The German patients reported that they didn't notice any symptoms from the Chinese woman. The woman herself stated she didn't start feeling sick until she was on the plane back to China. Buuuut CCTV footage showed her coughing while she was in Germany. In other words, she wasn't actually asymptomatic.

So, if this new conclusion from WHO holds any water... it's potentially dangerous if people treat it as permission to live their lives as normal so long as they think they feel fine. Because no, it is not that. If you wake up one day and find yourself occasionally coughing a little, you can't just go out and about your business like you would have in February. You need to assume you might have covid and stay home until the coughing stops or you get a negative test result back. The fact that people weren't staying home unless they felt seriously sick (or in many cases, were not being allowed by their employers to stay home unless they felt seriously sick) is how the initial wave of infections got out of control, and that will happen again if we don't isolate the mild cases along with the severe ones.
Yeah, the would be another case of a distinction that mostly matters to epidemiologists.  To a layman, "asymptomatic" and "I don't feel sick" are one and same, and are going to be treated as such.  This is especially important because one can't know if they're going to get sick later when making day to day decisions.  And what about people who aren't very good at telling when they're sick?  Even when I had the flu, I never noticed - it was noticed by others, and that's how I found out I was sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on June 09, 2020, 02:22:34 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

"Lol. Just kidding."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/amid-confusion-who-clarifies-covid-19-can-be-spread-without-n1228426 (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/amid-confusion-who-clarifies-covid-19-can-be-spread-without-n1228426)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 09, 2020, 02:24:56 PM
Quote from: LM117 on June 09, 2020, 02:22:34 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

"Lol. Just kidding."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/amid-confusion-who-clarifies-covid-19-can-be-spread-without-n1228426 (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/amid-confusion-who-clarifies-covid-19-can-be-spread-without-n1228426)

They certainly didn't walk it back. Today they basically just reinforced it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 02:36:49 PM
Quote from: LM117 on June 09, 2020, 02:22:34 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on June 08, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

"Lol. Just kidding."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/amid-confusion-who-clarifies-covid-19-can-be-spread-without-n1228426 (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/amid-confusion-who-clarifies-covid-19-can-be-spread-without-n1228426)

One of the most important statements from that article is this one, in my opinion:

Quote
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention further clarified in a statement Tuesday, explaining there are two groups of people with the virus who may be contagious even though they aren't showing symptoms, such as fever, cough or shortness of breath. Some are asymptomatic and never develop symptoms. Others are presymptomatic, meaning they go on to develop symptoms.

It's largely impossible for anyone to know which group they're in. ..."

Unless I'm mistaken, this means that–while transmission by asymptomatic carriers may indeed be quite rare–that doesn't necessarily mean transmission by presymptomatic carriers is equally rare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 09, 2020, 02:42:10 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 02:36:49 PM

One of the most important statements from that article is this one, in my opinion:

Quote
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention further clarified in a statement Tuesday, explaining there are two groups of people with the virus who may be contagious even though they aren't showing symptoms, such as fever, cough or shortness of breath. Some are asymptomatic and never develop symptoms. Others are presymptomatic, meaning they go on to develop symptoms.

It's largely impossible for anyone to know which group they're in. ..."

Unless I'm mistaken, this means that–while transmission by asymptomatic carriers may indeed be quite rare–that doesn't necessarily mean transmission by presymptomatic carriers is equally rare.

That's my understanding, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on June 09, 2020, 03:19:32 PM
Taken with the idea that the more symptomatic you are, the more likely you are to spread the virus, and the more of it you're spreading:

Someone who is asymptomatic never realizes they have it, and has possibly spread it, but in a low enough quantity that it's probably a low (not zero) concern.  Context is key here...is that person an essential worker, in enclosed spaces, etc.
Someone who is presymptomatic has been spreading it in increasing quantity until they realize it and are tested, generally a handful of days after they caught it. This is where contact tracing comes in.

On the other side, you could be in a room with someone and not know if they are not affected, if they are affected but asymptomatic, or affected but presymptomatic (and how far along).

Asking people to wear masks is in the hopes that someone who is presymptomatic reduces the amount they are spreading outwardly.  And not perfectly. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 09, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
Adding to the asymptomatic transmission deal, there have also been reports that the virus doesn't live on external surfaces and isn't spread from them as easily as once believed.

I've been symptomatic for it for months before it became a thing. Coughing due to drainage in my throat, sneezing due to allergens, body aches and pains due to age and weight and various "itis" visitations, and occasional diarrhea due to stress or something I've eaten disagreeing with me. There's been one confirmed case in my county; a child who was tested prior to an unrelated medical procedure. That child is now reported as having recovered and the parents never tested positive. My county was one of the last three in Kentucky to report a case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 09, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
Adding to the asymptomatic transmission deal, there have also been reports that the virus doesn't live on external surfaces and isn't spread from them as easily as once believed.

The nice thing is that everyone is hyper-fixated on sanitation now. We actually get to keep disinfectant and glass cleaner at our work stations now, whereas before it wasn't allowed because they were "extraneous". Stuff is getting disinfected way more frequently. I'd hope people are washing their hands more.

An interesting study (which I don't think is feasible to actually conduct, sadly) would be whether cold and flu cases took a hit in March-May of 2020 due to increased sanitation for COVID-19 killing cold and flu viruses as a byproduct.

Quote
I've been symptomatic for it for months before it became a thing. Coughing due to drainage in my throat, sneezing due to allergens, body aches and pains due to age and weight and various "itis" visitations, and occasional diarrhea due to stress or something I've eaten disagreeing with me. There's been one confirmed case in my county; a child who was tested prior to an unrelated medical procedure. That child is now reported as having recovered and the parents never tested positive. My county was one of the last three in Kentucky to report a case.

Unless you have an antibody test showing that you did have it, that means very little.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 05:01:28 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on June 09, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
I've been symptomatic for it for months before it became a thing. Coughing due to drainage in my throat, sneezing due to allergens, body aches and pains due to age and weight and various "itis" visitations, and occasional diarrhea due to stress or something I've eaten disagreeing with me. There's been one confirmed case in my county; a child who was tested prior to an unrelated medical procedure. That child is now reported as having recovered and the parents never tested positive. My county was one of the last three in Kentucky to report a case.

Unless you have an antibody test showing that you did have it, that means very little.

Huh.  I thought that was his point:  symptoms don't mean much.

Maybe I read it wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 09, 2020, 05:11:59 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 09, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
I've been symptomatic for it for months before it became a thing. Coughing due to drainage in my throat, sneezing due to allergens, body aches and pains due to age and weight and various "itis" visitations, and occasional diarrhea due to stress or something I've eaten disagreeing with me.

That's the problem with making too much of some specific symptoms associated with coronavirus. Many Covid-19 symptoms are also symptoms of other ailments, including minor ones. In my case, I occasionally cough, and sneeze due to allergens ... just like I've been doing for many years before Covid-19 came along, even when I wasn't ill. And I've never this year experienced the more serious symptoms such as sustained shortness of breath or fever (none of my twice-daily temperature checks since mid-March have come in above 98.6F).

Out of an abundance of caution (and also as now required in Virginia), I wear a facemask when I'm indoors, in close proximity to other people, to provide some protection for those other people as well as myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on June 09, 2020, 06:19:52 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 11:45:45 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 11:35:46 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 09, 2020, 08:49:04 AM

Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?

Was it safe to be there in the first place?

Nope.  It has never been "safe" to be anywhere.  Risk is inherent in the world.

"Until it's safe" means "Never"

And yet somehow we live in the age of “safety.”  It’s hard not to notice that almost everyone throws that term around though it was a birth right. 

"Is it safe?"  That's a line from the movie "Marathon Man".  Dustin Hoffman's character had no idea what the Nazis were talking about.  So much for safety...LOL!

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 06:38:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 05:01:28 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on June 09, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
I've been symptomatic for it for months before it became a thing. Coughing due to drainage in my throat, sneezing due to allergens, body aches and pains due to age and weight and various "itis" visitations, and occasional diarrhea due to stress or something I've eaten disagreeing with me. There's been one confirmed case in my county; a child who was tested prior to an unrelated medical procedure. That child is now reported as having recovered and the parents never tested positive. My county was one of the last three in Kentucky to report a case.

Unless you have an antibody test showing that you did have it, that means very little.

Huh.  I thought that was his point:  symptoms don't mean much.

Maybe I read it wrong.

I took it as a statement of "I already had something that sort of was like covid back in December/January so therefore I am invincible", which is a depressingly common argument around here. Though that may be due to my hearing that from, like, everyone I've talked to over the last few weeks, so I may have jumped to that conclusion.

Anyway, the only way to know that you're truly invincible is if you hear music playing around you wherever you go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Poge3wBxZ00
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 09, 2020, 06:45:32 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 06:38:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 05:01:28 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on June 09, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
I've been symptomatic for it for months before it became a thing. Coughing due to drainage in my throat, sneezing due to allergens, body aches and pains due to age and weight and various "itis" visitations, and occasional diarrhea due to stress or something I've eaten disagreeing with me. There's been one confirmed case in my county; a child who was tested prior to an unrelated medical procedure. That child is now reported as having recovered and the parents never tested positive. My county was one of the last three in Kentucky to report a case.

Unless you have an antibody test showing that you did have it, that means very little.

Huh.  I thought that was his point:  symptoms don't mean much.

Maybe I read it wrong.

I took it as a statement of "I already had something that sort of was like covid back in December/January so therefore I am invincible", which is a depressingly common argument around here. Though that may be due to my hearing that from, like, everyone I've talked to over the last few weeks, so I may have jumped to that conclusion.


I saw it the way kphoger did.

Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 06:38:29 PM
Anyway, the only way to know that you're truly invincible is if you hear music playing around you wherever you go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Poge3wBxZ00

What if you fall into a bottomless pit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 06:48:12 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 09, 2020, 06:45:32 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 06:38:29 PM
Anyway, the only way to know that you're truly invincible is if you hear music playing around you wherever you go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Poge3wBxZ00

What if you fall into a bottomless pit?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xs0h2YOE8o

I don't think COVID-19 antibodies are effective against bottomless pits either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 07:26:11 PM
Falling into pits and being crushed doesn't work with the Chaos Emeralds either...so probably a no go for COVID also.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 09, 2020, 07:42:55 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM
I'd hope people are washing their hands more.

Sidebar: Here's one person that actually isn't washing their hands more. I tended to wash them almost to the point of being obsessive even before COVID-19 hit, so I didn't see a need to start washing them more often when my typical frequency suddenly became normal for everyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 07:47:30 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 09, 2020, 07:42:55 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM
I'd hope people are washing their hands more.

Sidebar: Here's one person that actually isn't washing their hands more. I tended to wash them almost to the point of being obsessive even before COVID-19 hit, so I didn't see a need to start washing them more often when my typical frequency suddenly became normal for everyone else.

I backed off constant hand washing when my hands started to crack and bleed from getting dried out.  I went back to the normal routine of washing before I eat, touch something dirty, or used the bathroom.  Most of my focus has been on not biting my nails or rubbing my face/eyes. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 09:15:31 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 09, 2020, 08:49:04 AM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 09, 2020, 12:26:14 AM
One question; Is it safe to go in and out of New Rochelle, New York yet?

Was it safe to be there in the first place?
I had no problem going there on my Wiki-Photography crusades, but I haven't had one there since 2018. At the end of November 2019, I rode the Metro-North New Haven Line through the place on my way to Danbury Railway Museum, but that was it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on June 09, 2020, 09:54:59 PM
I have been taking a perverse pride in how I have not set foot inside a building other than my house since 16 March.

Sadly, the streak may end Thursday -- depends on whether I can get set up to just schedule UPS/Fed Ex to drop by and pick up a box.   But it's been an interesting run while it's lasted.

I also think I've reached the point where I've spent more consecutive nights at home than I have in at least 35 (possibly 40) years.   Assuming no resurgence in infection rates, no zombies, and protests having settled down, that streak will end in just under 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 10:13:48 PM
Yosemite is to open by way of a reservation system on the 11th.  I'm looking at booking my seven day pass for the 18th.  My gym is looking to reopen on the 12th but still is pursuing clearance from the county.  If it does reopen on the 12th I'll be there first thing in the morning. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 09, 2020, 10:41:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 07:47:30 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 09, 2020, 07:42:55 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM
I'd hope people are washing their hands more.

Sidebar: Here's one person that actually isn't washing their hands more. I tended to wash them almost to the point of being obsessive even before COVID-19 hit, so I didn't see a need to start washing them more often when my typical frequency suddenly became normal for everyone else.

I backed off constant hand washing when my hands started to crack and bleed from getting dried out.  I went back to the normal routine of washing before I eat, touch something dirty, or used the bathroom.  Most of my focus has been on not biting my nails or rubbing my face/eyes.
after coming home from work may be another good time.
As a side note, though, I do observe a lot more soap being used after restroom business. We had soap dispensers at work  running dry in the last days before lockdown
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 11:42:05 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 09, 2020, 10:41:22 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 07:47:30 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 09, 2020, 07:42:55 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM
I'd hope people are washing their hands more.

Sidebar: Here's one person that actually isn't washing their hands more. I tended to wash them almost to the point of being obsessive even before COVID-19 hit, so I didn't see a need to start washing them more often when my typical frequency suddenly became normal for everyone else.

I backed off constant hand washing when my hands started to crack and bleed from getting dried out.  I went back to the normal routine of washing before I eat, touch something dirty, or used the bathroom.  Most of my focus has been on not biting my nails or rubbing my face/eyes.
after coming home from work may be another good time.
As a side note, though, I do observe a lot more soap being used after restroom business. We had soap dispensers at work  running dry in the last days before lockdown

Usually I eat shortly after getting home, so that part has always been routine.  I'll have to remember to wash my hands after leaving the gym though since anti-viral wipes essentially are still unobtainable.  At work the cleaning supplies have been under lock and keep.  They certainly are used up faster but having a custodian probably deterred theft and hoarding. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 10, 2020, 12:26:26 AM
The fact that washing hands after using the bathroom and when returning to home from the outside isn't common is terrifying. Too many gross people out there.

I've always carried around lotion-infused hand sanitizer for when I'm out and about, but apparently this wasn't common either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 10, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Quote from: Bruce on June 10, 2020, 12:26:26 AM
The fact that washing hands after using the bathroom and when returning to home from the outside isn't common is terrifying. Too many gross people out there.

I've always carried around lotion-infused hand sanitizer for when I'm out and about, but apparently this wasn't common either.
Even more interesting is the fact that just a few months ago people in this very thread were saying that epidemic would not spread in US since we have so much better hygiene than China..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 09:31:03 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 10, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Quote from: Bruce on June 10, 2020, 12:26:26 AM
The fact that washing hands after using the bathroom and when returning to home from the outside isn't common is terrifying. Too many gross people out there.

I've always carried around lotion-infused hand sanitizer for when I'm out and about, but apparently this wasn't common either.
Even more interesting is the fact that just a few months ago people in this very thread were saying that epidemic would not spread in US since we have so much better hygiene than China..

Most people aren't as hygienic as they think they are though.  I've seen things like the five second rule or applied or sharing a drink and/or food way too many times over the year by people who claim to be "clean"  for that to be anywhere near a truism. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 09:34:21 AM
My gym just posted an update that they are indeed opening on the 12th.  Apparently they are posting their "guidelines"  at some point today or tomorrow.  I'm hoping at this point to be able to just find an adjustable bench and just hang out on it all morning at this rate. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 10, 2020, 10:07:06 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 09, 2020, 07:47:30 PM
Most of my focus has been on not biting my nails or rubbing my face/eyes. 

I've chewed my nails ever since I can remember.  Man, I wish I could stop!

When rubbing my eyes, I've switched from using my fingertips to using my knuckles.

Quote from: kalvado on June 09, 2020, 10:41:22 PM
I do observe a lot more soap being used after restroom business.

My personal habits:

I was never one to wash my hands after every time using the bathroom.  I was closer to the George Carlin quote:

"And speaking of my colon, I want you to know I don't automatically wash my hands every time I go to the bathroom okay? Can you deal with that? Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't. You know when I wash my hands? When I shit on them! That's the only time. And you know how often that happens? Tops, TOPS, 2-3 times a week tops! Maybe a little more frequently over the holidays, you know what I mean?"

OK, not quite.  But I almost never bothered to wash my hands within my own house.  In public or at work, I washed them only if I either (a) had to touch the toilet with my fingers or (b) noticed I got something on my hands.

But most pertinent is that I only used soap probably half the times I washed my hands.  The other half of the time, I just used water.  Nowadays, though, I'm washing with soap every single time I use the restroom.

I've also noticed that co-workers who used to not wash hands after using the restroom have started washing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 10:44:21 AM
With the nail chewing I've had that issue my entire life.  I've managed to mostly switched to picking instead of biting as of late, either way it still makes them look like crap.  I've noticed that I almost only ever chew or pick at work which makes me think it's related to stress. 

Regarding the bathroom; if I manage not urinate all over my hands and avoid touching the plunger then I usually don't wash my hands unless I'm about to go eat (or someone I know is picky might be watching).  The way I figure it, the bathroom door handle is way more dirty than any part of my body or even the surface of my clothing.  My wife was taken aback when I explained all that to her once but at the same token she leaves food out for hours (then eats it) and does things like eat food off of an unclean surface (like the stove or table) or takes a swig of my drinks. 

Regarding fecal matter, yeah that's always going to be a solid hand wash for me.  Granted, I'm I know full well fecal matter and insect matter makes it into food and yet that doesn't bother me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 10, 2020, 10:45:04 AM
Quote from: Bruce on June 10, 2020, 12:26:26 AM
The fact that washing hands after using the bathroom and when returning to home from the outside isn't common is terrifying. Too many gross people out there.

I've always carried around lotion-infused hand sanitizer for when I'm out and about, but apparently this wasn't common either.

One of the things that bugs me is public restroom design that to some degree renders hand-washing futile. I'm thinking in particular of the restrooms at Verizon Center in DC. The sinks are the type where you push down to turn on the water, but the water then turns off very quickly and most people wind up having to push down two or three times to get enough water to rinse off the soap. Dumb design to require you to re-touch the same part of the device that you touched before lathering your hands with soap.

Then there are public restrooms that use only air dryers but have exit doors that open inwards so you have to pull them open, but the lack of paper towels means you don't have a way to avoid touching the handle that non-hand-washers have also touched. I guess you could go over to a booth and grab a few squares of TP to use to open the door.

(I suppose when I was growing up none of us thought about any of this sort of thing and we all survived OK, but then there weren't any pandemics then aside from the usual things we all got like chicken pox, which spread like wildfire through my first-grade classroom.)

I've always washed my hands after hitting the head. My parents emphasized that to us as kids and it just became ingrained. But I'm certainly washing more thoroughly now. I do think there's something to the idea that a more thorough washing is in order after taking a dump because you're handling TP and the possibility of some sort of bacteria or whatever getting transferred to your hand seems like it ought to be more likely in that situation, especially if you're using the flimsy TP that's prevalent in most public restrooms. (This makes me think of my brother's comment about the importance of doing the "three Ss" in the correct order in the morning because the second "S" will wash out anything you missed following the first "S.") Lately I've also become conscious of washing my hands after blowing my nose if the tissue feels damp or I blow a hole in it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 12:16:09 PM
Booked my pass for Yosemite dated for the 18th.  The pass is good for seven days, given the restriction is 1,700 cars a day I'll probably be going the; 18th, 20th, and 21st.  The processing fee was only $2 dollars on recreation.gov and they gave me a PDF pass.  The COVID day use hours are posted as 5 AM to 11 PM.  Apparently the reservation system will be ongoing until October 31st as of now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 10, 2020, 12:20:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 10, 2020, 10:45:04 AM
One of the things that bugs me is public restroom design that to some degree renders hand-washing futile.

Indeed, there are times I use the restroom without actually touching anything except my fly.  I can flush a urinal with the back of my hand or even my elbow.  The door can be opened in one direction by simply pushing it open with my back or shoulder, and in the other direction I tend to open it with only one finger.  Even if the door latches, many have handles instead of knobs, and those can be pushed down with the back of the hand.  I fail to see how, in those situations, using a sink handle that everyone else has touched is all that much more sanitary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 01:34:41 PM
Well, this took an interesting turn.

My theory about hand washing after using the restroom is fairly simple.
If #1, case by case basis.
If #2, always, no exceptions. I mean, seriously.

Normally, you would think that washing your hands is more important after using a public restroom, as compared to at home, work, or any other place with less frequent usage and more knowledge of the potential occupants. However, it really depends on the sink arrangement (or "design", as 1995hoo puts it). If I see automatic soap dispensers, automatic faucets, and blow dryers, I will for sure wash my hands. If one or more of those things are lacking, I may decide that it's not really a net positive to wash them.

It would take a lot for me to skip hand washing after #2, though. Probably once or twice in the past year I've seen bars of soap in use at a public restroom. That might be the only thing that fully turns me off enough to settle for hand sanitizer in the car.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 10, 2020, 01:51:11 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 01:34:41 PM
Probably once or twice in the past year I've seen bars of soap in use at a public restroom. That might be the only thing that fully turns me off enough to settle for hand sanitizer in the car.

Nothing wrong with bars of soap.  Any germs that might survive living on it is quickly scrubbed off and washed down the drain.

And, unless you spend just as long scrubbing with hand sanitizer as you would have with soap, it's not doing as good a job.  Most people tend to only rub sanitizer onto their hands for a few seconds, and that's not long enough for it to be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 10, 2020, 01:53:45 PM
Not to mention that studies have shown blow dryers are less sanitary than paper towels, and anyone who touched a paper towel dispenser probably already washed their hands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 10, 2020, 01:59:13 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 10, 2020, 01:53:45 PM
Not to mention that studies have shown blow dryers are less sanitary than paper towels, and anyone who touched a paper towel dispenser probably already washed their hands.

Unless, of course, it's the kind of dispenser that requires you to turn a wheel to get a towel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 02:07:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 10, 2020, 01:51:11 PM
Nothing wrong with bars of soap.  Any germs that might survive living on it is quickly scrubbed off and washed down the drain.

And, unless you spend just as long scrubbing with hand sanitizer as you would have with soap, it's not doing as good a job.  Most people tend to only rub sanitizer onto their hands for a few seconds, and that's not long enough for it to be effective.

I have no objection to bars of soap as a concept. For the shower, or use in the bathroom at home, fine. But in a public restroom, where it's sitting on a dirty tray and has been used by potentially hundreds of people, I just can't do it. As far as hand sanitizer, I always rub for a good 10-15 seconds, and often repeat with a second squirt. It seems intuitive to me that you should lather for longer, not shorter, when using an alternative to good ol' soap and water.


Quote from: vdeane on June 10, 2020, 01:53:45 PM
Not to mention that studies have shown blow dryers are less sanitary than paper towels, and anyone who touched a paper towel dispenser probably already washed their hands.

The reason I mentioned blow-dryers is because they complete the "touchless" hand washing experience. I actually prefer paper towels myself, preferably the folded kind that you can grab one at a time directly from the dispenser, not the kind with the wheel or pump handle. There's also automatic paper towel dispensers (although for whatever reason, those seem to often have ineffective or dysfunctional sensors; maybe just my luck).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 10, 2020, 02:20:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 02:07:07 PM
The reason I mentioned blow-dryers is because they complete the "touchless" hand washing experience. I actually prefer paper towels myself, preferably the folded kind that you can grab one at a time directly from the dispenser, not the kind with the wheel or pump handle. There's also automatic paper towel dispensers (although for whatever reason, those seem to often have ineffective or dysfunctional sensors; maybe just my luck).

Theoretically, that depends on the type of blow-dryer used. There are still plenty of the old-style type where you turned them on by pressing the button–you know, the ones that are invariably vandalized to say "Push Butt. Rub Hands Gently Under Arm. Tops All." (Why people still do that is beyond me. That joke was old by 1980, yet people still do it 40 years later.) Those are certainly not "touchless," though you need not use your hand to push the button.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 10, 2020, 02:34:29 PM
I haven't changed how I wash my hands for COVID-19, other than to make sure I wash them at least once when I come in from the outdoors.

I do wash hands (with soap or with whatever substitute foam/gel is provided) whenever I use the toilet, whether at home or out in public.  It is impossible for me to use a toilet without touching myself at least once in the crotch, which is one of two areas on the body with apocrine sweat glands (the other being the armpits), and part of being a member of civilized society is not smearing your crotch smell willy-nilly on surfaces others have to touch.

I do agree that sinks in public bathrooms are often filthy.  This is why I often soap up my hands, wash and rinse the faucet, run my wet hand around the outside of the sink, and rinse the basin before I wash my hands.

I avoid touching my eyes largely by eliminating the urge.  I try to get a full eight hours of sleep each night, I go to bed at approximately the same time every night, and I keep allergies under control by using a neti pot.

When I exit a public bathroom, I generally try to avoid touching door hardware with the pads of my fingers.  If the door opens outward to exit, I generally lean against it or touch the handle with the side of my palm.  If the door has to be pulled inward, I try to do it by laying the handle across my palm.  I was doing all of this long before COVID-19.

Auto flushing in public bathrooms was a health risk even before coronavirus.  I keep my eye on the bowl so I can exhale or hold my breath if the flush mechanism trips.  Optical activation often results in ill-timed flushes, so if I need to do an additional flush to clear the bowl completely (I always try to pick up stray bits of toilet paper in the stall before I leave), I use the knuckle of one finger to press the manual flush button.  I hardly ever try to save water when using the toilet.  While the Wichita area has a climate that classifies as semi-arid, in reality public drinking water comes from an aquifer that is systematically recharged in wet years and is discharged into the Arkansas River as treated sewage once it is used.  If I put a few more gallons into the Keystone Reservoir in Oklahoma, so what?

I never use urinals in public bathrooms if I can possibly avoid them--as far as I am concerned, they are inventions of the devil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 10, 2020, 03:05:11 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 02:07:07 PM
It seems intuitive to me that you should lather for longer, not shorter, when using an alternative to good ol' soap and water.

Wow, you can lather up hand sanitizer?  Bravo!

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 10, 2020, 02:34:29 PM
smearing your crotch smell willy-nilly

Your mastery of the English language never ceases to delight us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 10, 2020, 03:23:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 10, 2020, 02:34:29 PM
I never use urinals in public bathrooms if I can possibly avoid them--as far as I am concerned, they are inventions of the devil.

Why's that? They're typically better than commodes in terms of upkeep and cleanliness (crap thrown in the bottom of the urinal notwithstanding.)

Quote from: kphoger on June 09, 2020, 05:01:28 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 09, 2020, 04:47:28 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on June 09, 2020, 04:36:54 PM
I've been symptomatic for it for months before it became a thing. Coughing due to drainage in my throat, sneezing due to allergens, body aches and pains due to age and weight and various "itis" visitations, and occasional diarrhea due to stress or something I've eaten disagreeing with me. There's been one confirmed case in my county; a child who was tested prior to an unrelated medical procedure. That child is now reported as having recovered and the parents never tested positive. My county was one of the last three in Kentucky to report a case.

Unless you have an antibody test showing that you did have it, that means very little.

Huh.  I thought that was his point:  symptoms don't mean much.

Maybe I read it wrong.

No, you didn't read it wrong. My point was that there are a whole lot of things that are considered to be symptoms of it that are also caused by a host of other things (as in my example, coughing due to drainage or dust in the throat, sneezing due to dust or allergens, aches or pains due to aging or arthritis or various other muscle/joint strains or ailments, gastrointestinal distress due to something you ate, shortness of breath due to being fat and out of shape) and having one or more of them isn't an automatic "OMG, I may have the 'rona, I need to go get a big Q-tip stuck up my nose to double-check." They've also added symptoms, most notably the vomiting/diarrhea warning. The big joke during the toilet paper shortage was that since people were reacting to a respiratory ailment by buying up all the bathroom stationery, the next time there's an intestinal bug going around, people should go out and hoard Benadryl or NyQuil.

As for washing hands, I don't know that I'm doing it any more often than I did before. I always washed them after using a public restroom, after taking a dump at home, prior to eating if I'd been out somewhere, and after returning from the store. I have taken to using hand sanitizer after every trip to a store when I get back in the car, but I will get out of the habit of doing that once the virus is less of a big deal.

I know someone at my office who never washed his hands after using the restroom, even if he'd just taken a crap. That strikes me as disgusting. I don't always wash my hands after urinating, since I know where my male member has been and it's not likely to have picked up any viruses or bacteria. I can certainly flush a urinal with my elbow or foot.

When our new office opened a couple of years ago, we switched from paper towels to air dryers, which I hate (even the high-velocity ones like the XLerator models). With the advent of the virus, they've installed paper towel dispensers in our restrooms, but they're the ones that have the towels in one continuous vertically-mounted machine where the towels are pulled down one at a time from the center. I don't like those as much as the ones that mount the rolls horizontally and you pull them, or they're dispensed, from the outside of the roll.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 05:31:26 PM
I feel like if your paper towels need a dispenser, you're probably doing it wrong. My old workplace had used paper towel "dispensers" that were just a slot in the wall that you could pull paper towels downward from. You could also choose to use a Dyson hand dryer that would occasionally trip the breaker.

Where I work now, they use dispensers that pull from a roll of paper towels that come out at pre-determined lengths. The start of the towel hangs out of the dispenser and you pull on it, releasing the towel and a little bit of the next one to grab on to. The problem is, of course, your hands are wet most of the time when you use a paper towel dispenser, so your wet hands cause the towel to lose its tensile strength and tear without actually dispensing the next towel. There's a little wheel you can turn to force the next towel to present itself, but it's possible to tear the towel in such a way that this wheel also gets jammed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 06:05:35 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 05:31:26 PM
I feel like if your paper towels need a dispenser, you're probably doing it wrong.

Just to clarify, I'm talking about C-fold paper towels, which is what my workplace has. You're supposed to be able to pull one fold and get the whole towel out, while also leaving a flap of the next towel for the next person to pull, somewhat similar to pulling napkins from a dispenser at a restaurant.


Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 05:31:26 PM
Where I work now, they use dispensers that pull from a roll of paper towels that come out at pre-determined lengths. The start of the towel hangs out of the dispenser and you pull on it, releasing the towel and a little bit of the next one to grab on to. The problem is, of course, your hands are wet most of the time when you use a paper towel dispenser, so your wet hands cause the towel to lose its tensile strength and tear without actually dispensing the next towel.

Yes, I know exactly what you're talking about. Hate it when that happens. I'd rather have a pump handle and tear a big piece myself than deal with that nonsense four or five times consecutively.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 06:05:35 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 05:31:26 PM
I feel like if your paper towels need a dispenser, you're probably doing it wrong.

Just to clarify, I'm talking about C-fold paper towels, which is what my workplace has. You're supposed to be able to pull one fold and get the whole towel out, while also leaving a flap of the next towel for the next person to pull, somewhat similar to pulling napkins from a dispenser at a restaurant.

Right, C-fold towels don't really "need" a dispenser at all. I've seen some higher-end places that just leave a stack of them in a fancy-looking tray. I'd prefer putting them in some form of container so that they're protected from aerosolized shit, though.

I actually got a really nice chrome C-fold towel dispenser in an auction, but I've never used it because C-fold towels are annoyingly difficult to purchase. Only industrial suppliers like Uline or AmSan tend to carry them.

Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 06:05:35 PM
Yes, I know exactly what you're talking about. Hate it when that happens. I'd rather have a pump handle and tear a big piece myself than deal with that nonsense four or five times consecutively.

Yeah, I always need exactly four towels to dry my hands. Another pet peeve about the dispensers is that they tend to enforce stinginess with the towels. Buddy, if you're a business and paper towel usage is seriously something driving your costs to the point that you're wanting everyone to leave the restroom with damp hands, you need to seriously re-examine your business model, or consider whether owning a business is really the right career path for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 10, 2020, 06:53:14 PM
Quote from: GaryV on June 06, 2020, 07:58:17 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 05, 2020, 11:09:49 PM
I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Also, in addition to things not being as scary now, some of this was on principle. I may have still been afraid to visit certain indoor businesses, but it may have actually been pretty safe. At that point, I just thought people should have a choice whether to visit such places.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 08:53:34 PM
My gym just announced it's reopening guidelines:

https://www.gb3clubs.com/

Considering how fast I move around I might just keep my mask on or find my altitude training mask.  Kind of crappy I can't access the bathroom (in the locker room) to wash my hands after working out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 09:31:53 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
Right, C-fold towels don't really "need" a dispenser at all. I've seen some higher-end places that just leave a stack of them in a fancy-looking tray. I'd prefer putting them in some form of container so that they're protected from aerosolized shit, though.

I actually got a really nice chrome C-fold towel dispenser in an auction, but I've never used it because C-fold towels are annoyingly difficult to purchase. Only industrial suppliers like Uline or AmSan tend to carry them.

OK, gotcha. Yeah, ours pull from the bottom from a wall mount dispenser, but pulling from the top - maybe even just from a regular container instead of a dispenser - makes sense to me, too. I would normally mention that C-fold towels are also available on Amazon, but knowing your thoughts on them, maybe I won't.  ;-)

Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 06:05:35 PM
Yes, I know exactly what you're talking about. Hate it when that happens. I'd rather have a pump handle and tear a big piece myself than deal with that nonsense four or five times consecutively.
Yeah, I always need exactly four towels to dry my hands. Another pet peeve about the dispensers is that they tend to enforce stinginess with the towels. Buddy, if you're a business and paper towel usage is seriously something driving your costs to the point that you're wanting everyone to leave the restroom with damp hands, you need to seriously re-examine your business model, or consider whether owning a business is really the right career path for you.

LOL. I always need at least four. I know what you're talking about when it comes to stinginess, but I can't even imagine how it could be enforced with something like paper towels.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 08:53:34 PM
Considering how fast I move around I might just keep my mask on or find my altitude training mask.  Kind of crappy I can't access the bathroom (in the locker room) to wash my hands after working out. 

It says the bathrooms and sinks will be accessible. I'm not sure if your gym is set up like mine, but there when you walk into the locker room, the sink is to the left, urinals/stalls to the right, and if you continue straight, you're in the actual locker room area. My gym could theoretically close off the locker room by putting a barrier of some kind between it and the bathroom area.

That being said, lack of locker room access would be a dealkiller for me going in. My routine is to stop in on the way home from work, and my work uniform isn't suitable for working out. Going home to change would entail driving across town twice (my work is west of town, the gym is on the west side, and my house is on the east side). I could wear gym clothes under my uniform, I suppose, but that doesn't strike me as being remotely comfortable at work, especially during the summer months.

Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 09:31:53 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
Right, C-fold towels don't really "need" a dispenser at all. I've seen some higher-end places that just leave a stack of them in a fancy-looking tray. I'd prefer putting them in some form of container so that they're protected from aerosolized shit, though.

I actually got a really nice chrome C-fold towel dispenser in an auction, but I've never used it because C-fold towels are annoyingly difficult to purchase. Only industrial suppliers like Uline or AmSan tend to carry them.

OK, gotcha. Yeah, ours pull from the bottom from a wall mount dispenser, but pulling from the top - maybe even just from a regular container instead of a dispenser - makes sense to me, too. I would normally mention that C-fold towels are also available on Amazon, but knowing your thoughts on them, maybe I won't.  ;-)

I do actually carry an Amazon Prime membership, because my wife refuses to let it expire, despite how Amazon has treated us in the past. Each year I try to make the case against renewing it, but as of yet have not managed to amass the requisite political capital to do so. But hey, the Bella Vista Bypass is under construction now, so hope springs eternal, I guess.

Uline manages to disgust me more than Amazon–for all Bezos's faults, he at least hasn't used his money to take over an entire town by force like Liz Uihlein did.

In any case, I try to avoid getting things such as towels and bath tissue online, since even if the shipping is "free" it still is a huge waste of carbon when I can easily just pick some up at Crest. I also am admittedly pretty bad at judging when I need to get more towels, so it's not uncommon for that to be the breaking factor of "Okay, need to go to the store tomorrow". Relying on Amazon entails a two-day delay, or possibly more, since Amazon order arrival reliability has gone straight out the window since the pandemic started.

Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 09:31:53 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 06:05:35 PM
Yes, I know exactly what you're talking about. Hate it when that happens. I'd rather have a pump handle and tear a big piece myself than deal with that nonsense four or five times consecutively.
Yeah, I always need exactly four towels to dry my hands. Another pet peeve about the dispensers is that they tend to enforce stinginess with the towels. Buddy, if you're a business and paper towel usage is seriously something driving your costs to the point that you're wanting everyone to leave the restroom with damp hands, you need to seriously re-examine your business model, or consider whether owning a business is really the right career path for you.

LOL. I always need at least four. I know what you're talking about when it comes to stinginess, but I can't even imagine how it could be enforced with something like paper towels.

That's the purpose of the dispensers–to give preordained length of towel in hopes that people will accept that as all the towel they deserve and reduce consumption. This is the same reason behind the faucets that give you a spritz of water and then shut off, and automatic soap dispensers (ask yourself, is pushing a pump to get some soap enough effort to justify having an electric motor do it for you?)
[/quote]
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 10:11:56 PM
Regarding my gym they've made a couple updates to the page it seems.  The wiping down equipment part is now in there, although I expected that to be the case.  The sinks are located deep in the heart of the locker rooms, I suspect that they got some complaints and clarified.  For me I usually go lift after running in the morning.  It's only a 1.5 mile trip from my house to the gym, so changing/showering at home is pretty easy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 10:56:19 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
Uline manages to disgust me more than Amazon–for all Bezos's faults, he at least hasn't used his money to take over an entire town by force like Liz Uihlein did.

Yeah, Uline has great customer service, but I think they try too hard to be "perfect" and almost come across as superficial because of it, right from the ownership on down. And there seems to be no end of the thick glossy catalogs they send, which seems incredibly wasteful in this day and age. Those things have to weigh a couple pounds each, and they often come to the business address 2 or 3 at a time.


Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
That's the purpose of the dispensers–to give preordained length of towel in hopes that people will accept that as all the towel they deserve and reduce consumption.

Wow, of course. My bad. I took "enforced" way too literally and missed the forest for the trees there.
In any case, I guess I fly in the face of this theory every time I use the dispenser. I just keep grabbing until I have enough to dry my hands properly without the towels disintegrating in real time. I don't think I'd take any more or less if they were easier to grab.


Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
This is the same reason behind the faucets that give you a spritz of water and then shut off, and automatic soap dispensers (ask yourself, is pushing a pump to get some soap enough effort to justify having an electric motor do it for you?)

I've always thought the primary reason for automatic soap and water was to create a "touchless" (and therefore more sanitary) hand-washing experience. I can't say I've ever felt shortchanged by an automatic soap dispenser, although, come to think of it, the spritzes of water are a pretty obvious attempt at conservation. However, the faucets that only give a spritz are usually the kind you have to push on (and hold on, if you want decent water flow), so I guess I just chalked those up to poor and/or outdated design.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 11:22:45 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 10:56:19 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
Uline manages to disgust me more than Amazon–for all Bezos's faults, he at least hasn't used his money to take over an entire town by force like Liz Uihlein did.

Yeah, Uline has great customer service, but I think they try too hard to be "perfect" and almost come across as superficial because of it, right from the ownership on down. And there seems to be no end of the thick glossy catalogs they send, which seems incredibly wasteful in this day and age. Those things have to weigh a couple pounds each, and they often come to the business address 2 or 3 at a time.

Never had a problem with their customer service, it's the Uihleins themselves I don't like. Next time you see one of their catalogs, leaf around in the back for a Very Special Message from ol' Lizzy (in the current catalog, it's page 807). Let's just say I know what channel she gets her news from.

I do value the Uline catalog in the same way that a lot of people use Best Buy–it's a great way to browse for stuff that you might want to buy elsewhere.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 10, 2020, 10:11:56 PM
Regarding my gym they've made a couple updates to the page it seems.  The wiping down equipment part is now in there, although I expected that to be the case.  The sinks are located deep in the heart of the locker rooms, I suspect that they got some complaints and clarified.  For me I usually go lift after running in the morning.  It's only a 1.5 mile trip from my house to the gym, so changing/showering at home is pretty easy. 

I just checked my gym's website. They are completely open for business, locker rooms and saunas included, and are starting group fitness classes on Monday. However, they're now closing at 9pm every night, which is irritating because on nights that I work I get to town around 11pm, so I still couldn't go even if I wanted to. (Normally it's 24 hours except on weekends.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 12:17:39 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PMIt says the bathrooms and sinks will be accessible. I'm not sure if your gym is set up like mine, but there when you walk into the locker room, the sink is to the left, urinals/stalls to the right, and if you continue straight, you're in the actual locker room area. My gym could theoretically close off the locker room by putting a barrier of some kind between it and the bathroom area.

That being said, lack of locker room access would be a dealkiller for me going in. My routine is to stop in on the way home from work, and my work uniform isn't suitable for working out. Going home to change would entail driving across town twice (my work is west of town, the gym is on the west side, and my house is on the east side). I could wear gym clothes under my uniform, I suppose, but that doesn't strike me as being remotely comfortable at work, especially during the summer months.

The pools and locker rooms are now open at our Y.  We have also been advised that the meter starts running again on memberships June 15 (this coming Monday)--we have been on a fee holiday since March.

Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PMUline manages to disgust me more than Amazon–for all Bezos's faults, he at least hasn't used his money to take over an entire town by force like Liz Uihlein did.

Manitowish Waters, you mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 11, 2020, 01:35:44 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 12:17:39 AM
Manitowish Waters, you mean?

That's the one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 11, 2020, 07:56:49 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 10, 2020, 03:23:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 10, 2020, 02:34:29 PM
I never use urinals in public bathrooms if I can possibly avoid them--as far as I am concerned, they are inventions of the devil.

Why's that? They're typically better than commodes in terms of upkeep and cleanliness ...

I must say I was wondering that myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 11, 2020, 08:08:42 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
That's the purpose of the dispensers–to give preordained length of towel in hopes that people will accept that as all the towel they deserve and reduce consumption. This is the same reason behind the faucets that give you a spritz of water and then shut off, and automatic soap dispensers (ask yourself, is pushing a pump to get some soap enough effort to justify having an electric motor do it for you?)

The automatic soap dispensers at my workplace certainly don't save soap.  You get 3 or 4 extra squirts while you're rinsing off your hands, because the sensor is too close to the water stream from the faucet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 11, 2020, 09:42:56 AM
Uno Chicago Grill in Haverhill, MA, which has its parking lot cross the state line, is now doing outside seating. I'm pretty sure that the seating is across the border in New Hampshire, as Massachusetts won't allow it. I haven't been there to check, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 10:53:42 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 10, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
C-fold towels don't really "need" a dispenser at all. I've seen some higher-end places that just leave a stack of them in a fancy-looking tray.

This is what we have at our house.  As a licensed home daycare, we are required to provide that children not have to share a towel.  My wife therefore buys C-fold towels by the case online and keeps a stack of them in a clear acrylic holder on the over-the-toilet shelving.  No dispenser needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 12:27:48 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 11, 2020, 07:56:49 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 10, 2020, 03:23:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 10, 2020, 02:34:29 PM
I never use urinals in public bathrooms if I can possibly avoid them--as far as I am concerned, they are inventions of the devil.

Why's that? They're typically better than commodes in terms of upkeep and cleanliness ...

I must say I was wondering that myself.

Urinals are difficult for me to use because I wear trousers at my natural waist rather than my hips and tuck in my shirt, meaning I have a lot of fabric to pull out of the way before I can create an unobstructed stream.  For me--not necessarily for other men--having elastic at my waist under tension and routing the business end out through a small pee slit has a hose-kinking effect.  I've also encountered various types of urinals that were badly designed and either overflowed or splashed back onto me.

All things considered, I prefer to do my business in a closed toilet stall where I can evacuate my bladder fully in comfort and adjust my clothing in privacy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 12:36:41 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 12:27:48 PM
I prefer to do my business in a closed toilet stall where I can evacuate my bladder fully in comfort and adjust my clothing in privacy.

And you call yourself an American...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 12:55:27 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 12:36:41 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 12:27:48 PM
I prefer to do my business in a closed toilet stall where I can evacuate my bladder fully in comfort and adjust my clothing in privacy.

And you call yourself an American...

Man...maybe we should tell people about the public restrooms in Mexico?  The best part is that you usually have to pay $5-$10 Pesos for the privilege of what most Americans would consider a restroom nightmare. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 01:01:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 12:55:27 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 12:36:41 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 12:27:48 PM
I prefer to do my business in a closed toilet stall where I can evacuate my bladder fully in comfort and adjust my clothing in privacy.

And you call yourself an American...

Man...maybe we should tell people about the public restrooms in Mexico?  The best part is that you usually have to pay $5-$10 Pesos for the privilege of what most Americans would consider a restroom nightmare. 

I regularly see tip jars at restrooms in Mexico, but I've only ever put money in once–and that was because the restroom used to be utterly filthy but was now decently clean.

Also, most public restrooms I've used in Mexico are halfway decent.  This may be because I stick to restaurants, gas stations, and toll booths.  Other than the aforementioned one (at the customs office near Allende, Coah), the only other horrible one I recall was at the bus terminal in Cd Chihuahua back in 2001-02.  Then again, the Chicago bus terminal's bathroom isn't much better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 01:08:06 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 01:01:12 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 12:55:27 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 12:36:41 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 12:27:48 PM
I prefer to do my business in a closed toilet stall where I can evacuate my bladder fully in comfort and adjust my clothing in privacy.

And you call yourself an American...

Man...maybe we should tell people about the public restrooms in Mexico?  The best part is that you usually have to pay $5-$10 Pesos for the privilege of what most Americans would consider a restroom nightmare. 

I regularly see tip jars at restrooms in Mexico, but I've only ever put money in once–and that was because the restroom used to be utterly filthy but was now decently clean.

Also, most public restrooms I've used in Mexico are halfway decent.  This may be because I stick to restaurants, gas stations, and toll booths.  Other than the aforementioned one (at the customs office near Allende, Coah), the only other horrible one I recall was at the bus terminal in Cd Chihuahua back in 2001-02.  Then again, the Chicago bus terminal's bathroom isn't much better.

Don't get me wrong what I typically encounter is nowhere near as bad as the old school pee troths of Tiger Stadium or Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  By the same token I could see someone like my brother (much more fussy than I about hygiene)  being freaked out by things like potentially not having a stall door or troth configurations.  Pretty much every public restroom I used on the last trip had an attendant taking payments; the Grand Mercado in Guadalajara, Chapala, and Zacolaco de Torres come to mind.  The park on Lake Chapala in Jocotepc had the tip jar though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 11, 2020, 01:12:43 PM
The worst public restroom I've encountered in Mexico was the one at Rasta's (https://goo.gl/maps/TPSEX49KLZ9tq3Tk7) on Cozumel's east side (in that Street View image, it's the place on the left, and its restroom serves Marley's across the street as well). At least there was a door, because the shitter, which generally looked like a standard American toilet, had no toilet seat and there was no running water to flush. Instead, you pretty much had to squat over the bowl using a stick that was tied to the wall to help you balance; there was also a hook on the door for people who desired to remove their shorts to avoid splatter. Once you were done, you wiped and put the TP in a wastebasket, then went outside to a rain bucket to get a pail of water to pour down the toilet.

The most ridiculous public restroom crapper I've ever used was in a building in the parking lot of Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia. There was no door and the only privacy you got while sitting was a shoulder-high cinderblock wall, but even that was of questionable value because they had a chair set up facing the crapper for the next person to sit on while waiting for you to finish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jmacswimmer on June 11, 2020, 01:17:08 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 12:55:27 PM
Man...maybe we should tell people about the public restrooms in Mexico?  The best part is that you usually have to pay $5-$10 Pesos for the privilege of what most Americans would consider a restroom nightmare. 

When I studied abroad in England, I remember a lot of the major rail stations charged 30 pence (collected by turnstile) for the toilets.  And they were typically, er, not the nicest restrooms out of all the ones I used over there. X-(
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: spooky on June 11, 2020, 01:28:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 11, 2020, 09:42:56 AM
Uno Chicago Grill in Haverhill, MA, which has its parking lot cross the state line, is now doing outside seating. I'm pretty sure that the seating is across the border in New Hampshire, as Massachusetts won't allow it. I haven't been there to check, though.

Massachusetts is allowing outdoor seating, requiring 6 foot separation between tables and parties no larger than 6 people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 01:49:44 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 11, 2020, 01:12:43 PM
At least there was a door, because the shitter, which generally looked like a standard American toilet, had no toilet seat and there was no running water to flush. Instead, you pretty much had to squat over the bowl using a stick that was tied to the wall to help you balance; there was also a hook on the door for people who desired to remove their shorts to avoid splatter. Once you were done, you wiped and put the TP in a wastebasket, then went outside to a rain bucket to get a pail of water to pour down the toilet.

Having no toilet seat is completely normal in Mexico, in both public and private restrooms, but the lack of one has never prevented me from sitting down.  If the rim is dirty, then I either wipe it off or just accept the fact that the backs of my thighs won't be squeaky clean.

I've only been in one situation where I had to use a bucket to flush, and that was when our mission team camped at a family's house in La Constancia (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=17092.msg2165053#msg2165053), which is way out in the middle of the desert (https://goo.gl/maps/h557RDFmLgvedkoc7).  There, the (seatless) toilet was flushed by filling and bringing a bucket of water in from a 55-gallon drum outside the house.  Even then, it still sometimes didn't flush properly.

However, on a previous trip, we donated church funds to the school in Ganivete (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=6616.msg154296#msg154296), which is also out in the middle of the desert (https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=af68ff7c-5535-42b7-b20a-f3c57c4f4391&cp=25.637603~-102.09085&lvl=10&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027).  Before we donated the funds, the toilets were not hooked up to plumbing, and the little kids couldn't fill the bucket if the holding tank was below half-full;  now they have flush toilets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PM
Quote from: jmacswimmer on June 11, 2020, 01:17:08 PMWhen I studied abroad in England, I remember a lot of the major rail stations charged 30 pence (collected by turnstile) for the toilets.  And they were typically, er, not the nicest restrooms out of all the ones I used over there. X-(

Yes--I don't think I have seen free toilets at any of the London terminus stations, though they do tend to be free further down the line, e.g. at Oxford.  There is also a tendency for pay toilets to have taps marked as non-potable water, so they can't be used to refill water bottles.

Charges to use public bathrooms are the modern descendants of Vespasian's toilet tax (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urine#History) (itself the origin of the phrase pecunia non olet, "money doesn't smell").  Oddly enough, while I've seen charges in countries like England and Italy that were formerly part of the Roman Empire, they are uncommon in Spain (also under Roman rule) yet common in Germany (never conquered by the Romans).

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 12:55:27 PMMan...maybe we should tell people about the public restrooms in Mexico?  The best part is that you usually have to pay $5-$10 Pesos for the privilege of what most Americans would consider a restroom nightmare.

I've used bathrooms in Mexico.  The ones I have encountered have done all right in terms of privacy; for Americans I think the biggest adjustment is having to throw away toilet paper in bins next to the toilet rather than flushing it.

Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 01:49:44 PMHaving no toilet seat is completely normal in Mexico, in both public and private restrooms, but the lack of one has never prevented me from sitting down.  If the rim is dirty, then I either wipe it off or just accept the fact that the backs of my thighs won't be squeaky clean.

Sitting down directly on the bowl is part of my current strategy for securing a flat anorectal angle.  I have only ever done this at home, however, and have thus had the ability to shower immediately afterward.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PM
I don't think I have seen free toilets at any of the London terminus stations, though they do tend to be free further down the line, e.g. at Oxford.  There is also a tendency for pay toilets to have taps marked as non-potable water, so they can't be used to refill water bottles.

Charges to use public bathrooms are the modern descendants of Vespasian's toilet tax (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urine#History) (itself the origin of the phrase pecunia non olet, "money doesn't smell").  Oddly enough, while I've seen charges in countries like England and Italy that were formerly part of the Roman Empire, they are uncommon in Spain (also under Roman rule) yet common in Germany (never conquered by the Romans).

I remember our family needing to use the restroom while transferring trains in Brussels back in the 1990s.  Our bank had given us out-of-date Belgian francs.  So my mom just held out all the Belgian francs she had, the restroom attendant picked through the pile of coins, and took the few that were current issue.

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PM
I've used bathrooms in Mexico.  The ones I have encountered have done all right in terms of privacy; for Americans I think the biggest adjustment is having to throw away toilet paper in bins next to the toilet rather than flushing it.

When I lead teams to Mexico, I describe that as THE most important thing to know.  In fact, I keep a wire coat hanger in the car just in case someone forgets and we need to fish TP out of the toilet.  At the children's home where we often serve, plumbing clogs can necessitate scooping sludge out of a hole near the street by hand.  I've found that telling people that is enough to scare them into remembering.

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PM
Sitting down directly on the bowl is part of my current strategy for securing a flat anorectal angle.  I have only ever done this at home, however, and have thus had the ability to shower immediately afterward.

Please tell me you don't shower after every BM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 11, 2020, 03:52:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PM
I don't think I have seen free toilets at any of the London terminus stations, though they do tend to be free further down the line, e.g. at Oxford.  There is also a tendency for pay toilets to have taps marked as non-potable water, so they can't be used to refill water bottles.

Charges to use public bathrooms are the modern descendants of Vespasian's toilet tax (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urine#History) (itself the origin of the phrase pecunia non olet, "money doesn't smell").  Oddly enough, while I've seen charges in countries like England and Italy that were formerly part of the Roman Empire, they are uncommon in Spain (also under Roman rule) yet common in Germany (never conquered by the Romans).

I remember our family needing to use the restroom while transferring trains in Brussels back in the 1990s.  Our bank had given us out-of-date Belgian francs.  So my mom just held out all the Belgian francs she had, the restroom attendant picked through the pile of coins, and took the few that were current issue.


Belgium never reformed their currency until they got the euro. Inflation might have made older coins worthless, but 5 francs is 5 francs regardless of when it was made.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 04:07:02 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 11, 2020, 03:52:42 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 03:40:10 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PM
I don't think I have seen free toilets at any of the London terminus stations, though they do tend to be free further down the line, e.g. at Oxford.  There is also a tendency for pay toilets to have taps marked as non-potable water, so they can't be used to refill water bottles.

Charges to use public bathrooms are the modern descendants of Vespasian's toilet tax (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urine#History) (itself the origin of the phrase pecunia non olet, "money doesn't smell").  Oddly enough, while I've seen charges in countries like England and Italy that were formerly part of the Roman Empire, they are uncommon in Spain (also under Roman rule) yet common in Germany (never conquered by the Romans).

I remember our family needing to use the restroom while transferring trains in Brussels back in the 1990s.  Our bank had given us out-of-date Belgian francs.  So my mom just held out all the Belgian francs she had, the restroom attendant picked through the pile of coins, and took the few that were current issue.


Belgium never reformed their currency until they got the euro. Inflation might have made older coins worthless, but 5 francs is 5 francs regardless of when it was made.

Wikipedia states all coins except 50 centimes were redesigned in 1994.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on June 11, 2020, 04:13:40 PM
For those wondering about testing, I had it done today (work required it for all employees). Its quick and painless and had the negative result in 15 minutes (much to my surprise, they had the rapid test). They don't shove the swab all the way back your nose, but it does go pretty far in. For those on the fence, don't be afraid to get tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 11, 2020, 04:33:21 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 11, 2020, 01:12:43 PM
The most ridiculous public restroom crapper I've ever used was in a building in the parking lot of Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia. There was no door and the only privacy you got while sitting was a shoulder-high cinderblock wall, but even that was of questionable value because they had a chair set up facing the crapper for the next person to sit on while waiting for you to finish.

Wow. Some old New York State Park bathrooms are almost that bad, with less than half-height stall walls and no doors, but I've never seen a chair facing the opening, LOL.  :-D


Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PM
Sitting down directly on the bowl is part of my current strategy for securing a flat anorectal angle.  I have only ever done this at home, however, and have thus had the ability to shower immediately afterward.
Please tell me you don't shower after every BM.

Only after sitting directly on the bowl, is how I interpreted it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 11, 2020, 04:39:56 PM
(All the bathroom and hygiene talk has generated almost 100 replies, more than enough for its own thread at this point, so it might be a good time to get back to the actual topic!!)

Quote from: NJRoadfan on June 11, 2020, 04:13:40 PM
For those wondering about testing, I had it done today (work required it for all employees). Its quick and painless and had the negative result in 15 minutes (much to my surprise, they had the rapid test). They don't shove the swab all the way back your nose, but it does go pretty far in. For those on the fence, don't be afraid to get tested.

Totally agree. Testing is now widely available, easy, and fast in most areas, so why not do it just for peace of mind?
In this area, there are self-testing facilities where you can literally drive up, get a swab wheeled up to your window on a cart, do the swab yourself, put it back on the cart, drive away and have them call you with the results within the hour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 04:45:58 PM
While I do agree that bathroom hygiene would make a good individual topic I don't think it necessarily should be divorced from the conversation at hand.  In particular the change of habits in regards to COVID are topical. 

Regarding testing, are there actually any states that require testing for things like travel or returning to work?  There is such a push for testing but there seems to be very little weight to actually being tested aside peace of mind.  For me I see zero incentive given that I feel fine, but there is a public push for people like me to get tested anyways.  Given what is coming out about asymptomatic spread not really being as big of an issue as originally thought it seems like taking a test for the sake of taking one is pointless. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 04:56:18 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 11, 2020, 04:33:21 PM
Only after sitting directly on the bowl, is how I interpreted it.

Yes, but he said that's his "current strategy".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 11, 2020, 04:59:02 PM
The IHME model has been extended to October 1 in the US.  Nationwide, it's showing a swing upward starting in late August.  It isn't a typical second wave, but more like a rebound of a first wave that never really ended, but that's just a composite of multiple regional epidemics.  The variation by state is very high.  In New York, they show the disease pretty much gone by August (100 to 200 daily infections and a few daily deaths).  New Jersey and Connecticut are similar.  The resurgence seems to be mostly places that weren't hit hard the first time.  A lot of southern states, from Georgia to Texas, are shown with higher infection and death rates than they had before.  Louisiana got high pretty hard, so it would be harder to get higher numbers, but Louisiana's curve not only doesn't get higher than before, it looks more like New York, with the virus tapering off, although more slowly.  A quick overview makes it look like the states that were worst off before are expected to get a lot better, and those states that were spared are more likely to see rapid increases.  One that stands out to me is Minnesota, which has a pretty strong wave pattern, having been over a pretty big hump already and seeing another one ahead of them.

My first thought as to why the projections look this way is that places that were hit hard before would be more likely to be more careful, but that isn't what they're assuming.  New York and New Jersey are shown with increasing mobility the whole time, and Louisiana is shown with mobility going back nearly to normal.  Of course, if the counts are as low as projected in those places, then there's really no reason not to.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 11, 2020, 05:06:05 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 10, 2020, 03:52:54 PM

Quote
lather
/ˈlaT͟Hər/
verb: cover something with liberal amounts of (a substance).

I always used the term "slather" in that context. "I slathered A1 sauce all over my steak before I ate it."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on June 11, 2020, 05:08:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 04:45:58 PM
Regarding testing, are there actually any states that require testing for things like travel or returning to work?  There is such a push for testing but there seems to be very little weight to actually being tested aside peace of mind.  For me I see zero incentive given that I feel fine, but there is a public push for people like me to get tested anyways.  Given what is coming out about asymptomatic spread not really being as big of an issue as originally thought it seems like taking a test for the sake of taking one is pointless. 

Many employers are requiring it, likely to have a baseline. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread is a serious issue with this virus (the WHO backpedaled that statement). There have been cases that have been detected in random testing that wouldn't have been caught otherwise. The reason for getting testing capacity up and to have otherwise healthy people get tested is to increase the sample set ("where is/isn't the virus right now") and catch cases that would otherwise go undetected. Ready access to testing also allows contact tracers to get results from a known case's contacts quickly and contain any spread.

Hindsight is 20/20, but if rapid testing like this was readily available back in February (when it was impossible to get ANY test), outcomes would have been very different, particularly here in NJ which clearly had undetected community spread for several weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 11, 2020, 05:13:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 11, 2020, 04:45:58 PM
Regarding testing, are there actually any states that require testing for things like travel or returning to work?

Alaska is giving arriving tourists the option of getting tested before they arrive in Alaska (plus again after their arrival) (https://www.alaskapublic.org/2020/06/06/the-state-has-revised-its-two-week-quarantine-requirement-heres-what-we-know-about-the-changes/), in lieu of a full-on two-week quarantine. That is still a bit of a buzz-kill for county counters yearning to finish off Alaska this year (also recent positive cases among the crew of the ferry vessel serving the Aleutian counties/equivalents (http://dot.alaska.gov/amhs/doc/service_notices/pr_060920.pdf), which means the ferry system will have to scrounge up a replacement crew while the original crew is stuck in quarantine).

QuoteThere is such a push for testing but there seems to be very little weight to actually being tested aside peace of mind.  For me I see zero incentive given that I feel fine, but there is a public push for people like me to get tested anyways.  Given what is coming out about asymptomatic spread not really being as big of an issue as originally thought it seems like taking a test for the sake of taking one is pointless. 

That's where I am, too, at least until my health plan starts nagging me to come in for a test, like it does for vaccinations. It's softening its initial stance against testing asymptomatic patients, but is still requiring a referral from a plan doctor or other provider to qualify for a free in-house test.

The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 11, 2020, 05:19:25 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 11, 2020, 05:13:02 PM
The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

Kentucky's governor said today that the self-administered tests are less uncomfortable than the professionally-administered ones are. I'm not sure why there's a difference.

I thought a saliva test was under development.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 06:43:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 11, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 11, 2020, 02:41:51 PMSitting down directly on the bowl is part of my current strategy for securing a flat anorectal angle.  I have only ever done this at home, however, and have thus had the ability to shower immediately afterward.

Please tell me you don't shower after every BM.

Sorry to be disobliging--usually I do.  I work with solids just once a day, generally after I wake up and have coffee and oatmeal, so a shower afterward slots neatly into my morning routine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on June 11, 2020, 08:15:02 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 11, 2020, 05:13:02 PM
That's where I am, too, at least until my health plan starts nagging me to come in for a test, like it does for vaccinations. It's softening its initial stance against testing asymptomatic patients, but is still requiring a referral from a plan doctor or other provider to qualify for a free in-house test.

Your health plan should be offering testing no questions asked. I had zero problems getting the test with no referral and the co-pay was waived.

Quote from: hbelkins on June 11, 2020, 05:19:25 PM
Kentucky's governor said today that the self-administered tests are less uncomfortable than the professionally-administered ones are. I'm not sure why there's a difference.

I thought a saliva test was under development.

The Rutgers University developed saliva test is in use at some testing sites here in NJ. The concern with people self-administering the nasal swab is that they may not go far enough back into the nose to get a proper sample.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 11, 2020, 09:18:13 PM
I took a free drive-thru COVID test yesterday.

The swabs did cause a bit of burning and I had to pull over for a few minutes before I could drive off, but overall it was a simple 10-minute process.

I got my result the next morning: a negative for COVID.

(Seattle is reusing the abandoned state emissions testing centers for COVID testing, which is brilliant)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 12, 2020, 10:52:56 AM
Quote from: oscar on June 11, 2020, 05:13:02 PM
The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

If it's anything like the flu swab, then I seriously doubt my ability to stick that thing far enough into my brain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2020, 11:09:06 AM
Went to the gym when they opened this morning.  Checking in was no big deal since it was the typical six foot space thing and a small Q&A at the front counter.  All the equipment was shifted so there was a six foot gap between each bench and machine.  Masks weren't required while working out but I guess you are supposed to have it on if you're walking to the next bench or loafing around?  Wiping down equipment is required and there is a person running around telling people they can't be within six feet or spot.  On the plus side I think that will deter a lot of people who tend to hog up benches in groups or sit around talking rather than working out. 

There wasn't too much of an upswing for me aside from the first couple sets of flat bench.  Using the bench felt weird until my muscle memory kicked in.  I want to say that I was either flat to the weights I was lifting before lockdown or maybe down only five pounds.  My hands got tore up a little bit since I was using gloves at home but that will take about a week for them to callus properly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 12, 2020, 11:16:10 AM
I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2020, 11:37:09 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 12, 2020, 11:16:10 AM
I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

Hence my sense of urgency cramming so much personal travel, hiking, and other stuff as much as I can now.  It's just a matter of time before some state starts locking things down again.  Then again I still wouldn't hesitate to travel to Arizona or Florida right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 12, 2020, 11:45:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 12, 2020, 11:16:10 AM
I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

Any sense of whether or not tourist sites in MA will be open by the first of August?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 12, 2020, 11:46:32 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on June 12, 2020, 11:45:28 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 12, 2020, 11:16:10 AM
I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

Any sense of whether or not tourist sites in MA will be open by the first of August?
Well the earliest date that museums can open in June 29th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on June 12, 2020, 01:04:57 PM
Quote from: wxfree on June 11, 2020, 04:59:02 PM
The IHME model has been extended to October 1 in the US.  Nationwide, it's showing a swing upward starting in late August.  It isn't a typical second wave, but more like a rebound of a first wave that never really ended, but that's just a composite of multiple regional epidemics.  The variation by state is very high.  In New York, they show the disease pretty much gone by August (100 to 200 daily infections and a few daily deaths).  New Jersey and Connecticut are similar.  The resurgence seems to be mostly places that weren't hit hard the first time.  A lot of southern states, from Georgia to Texas, are shown with higher infection and death rates than they had before.  Louisiana got high pretty hard, so it would be harder to get higher numbers, but Louisiana's curve not only doesn't get higher than before, it looks more like New York, with the virus tapering off, although more slowly.  A quick overview makes it look like the states that were worst off before are expected to get a lot better, and those states that were spared are more likely to see rapid increases.  One that stands out to me is Minnesota, which has a pretty strong wave pattern, having been over a pretty big hump already and seeing another one ahead of them.

My first thought as to why the projections look this way is that places that were hit hard before would be more likely to be more careful, but that isn't what they're assuming.  New York and New Jersey are shown with increasing mobility the whole time, and Louisiana is shown with mobility going back nearly to normal.  Of course, if the counts are as low as projected in those places, then there's really no reason not to.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They appear to be assuming some kind of significant societal change or event in Georgia occurring on precisely August 14th, as the estimated infection projection abruptly starts sloping upward at that point. My best guess would be some sort of attempt at a "back-to-school" factor, though that would be a lazy implementation as not everyone starts school at the same time (plus that would be rather late based on typical schedules, which would likely have a start date within about a week in either direction of August 5th).

There is then also apparently some kind of major medical breakthrough scheduled for September 26th, which brings with it a sudden very sharp decrease in required hospital resources.

Yeah, forgive me if I don't put too much stock in this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 12, 2020, 01:15:57 PM
Quote from: Eth on June 12, 2020, 01:04:57 PM
They appear to be assuming some kind of significant societal change or event in Georgia occurring on precisely August 14th, as the estimated infection projection abruptly starts sloping upward at that point. My best guess would be some sort of attempt at a "back-to-school" factor, though that would be a lazy implementation as not everyone starts school at the same time (plus that would be rather late based on typical schedules, which would likely have a start date within about a week in either direction of August 5th).

That's the precise point at which the social distancing/mobility line makes a sudden jump up to the same level as back on March 12.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 12, 2020, 01:27:52 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 12, 2020, 11:16:10 AM
I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

I compared the COVID deaths in Massachusetts to Arizona in this thread on May 6th.  At the time Massachusetts was reporting over 1000 COVID deaths per week compared to 100 weekly deaths in Arizona.  Fast forward to today and Massachusetts is still reporting more weekly COVID deaths (291 deaths) than Arizona (130 deaths) even as Arizona is seeing a spike in new cases.   

Quote from: tradephoric on May 06, 2020, 06:33:03 PM
Arizona has a slightly higher population than Massachusetts yet Massachusetts has seen 10x the number of COVID deaths.  Will Arizona be spared from this pandemic or is their spike in cases still coming?   

(https://i.imgur.com/euiuKAk.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=Arizona&location=Massachusetts&doublingtime=3

I would include California in the list of states that haven't yet seen a big spike in cases.  California is twice the population of New York yet at their worst they were seeing 540 deaths per week compared to New York which at its worse was seeing 5318 deaths (and since then weekly deaths have dropped by 62%).  Today weekly deaths in California are 502 which is only an 8% reduction from its peak.  If California starts to see exponential growth in cases upon loosening restrictions they could quickly overtake New York in Covid deaths.

(https://i.imgur.com/ek77PYZ.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=California&location=New+York&doublingtime=3
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 12, 2020, 04:26:35 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 12, 2020, 10:52:56 AM
Quote from: oscar on June 11, 2020, 05:13:02 PM
The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.
If it's anything like the flu swab, then I seriously doubt my ability to stick that thing far enough into my brain.

Our self-testing site gives instructions to put it in an inch. I don't necessarily trust myself to do it just right, but I'm certainly a lot more comfortable doing so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 12, 2020, 04:28:29 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 12, 2020, 04:26:35 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 12, 2020, 10:52:56 AM

Quote from: oscar on June 11, 2020, 05:13:02 PM
The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

If it's anything like the flu swab, then I seriously doubt my ability to stick that thing far enough into my brain.

Our self-testing site gives instructions to put it in an inch. I don't necessarily trust myself to do it just right, but I'm certainly a lot more comfortable doing so.

That would be nice.  When I got swabbed for the flu several years ago, I felt the swab poke the inside of my skull.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tolbs17 on June 12, 2020, 07:55:45 PM
Not sure what's up with North Carolina. There has been more cases lately compared to the last few months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 12, 2020, 09:09:12 PM
Quote from: Eth on June 12, 2020, 01:04:57 PM
Quote from: wxfree on June 11, 2020, 04:59:02 PM
The IHME model has been extended to October 1 in the US.  Nationwide, it's showing a swing upward starting in late August.  It isn't a typical second wave, but more like a rebound of a first wave that never really ended, but that's just a composite of multiple regional epidemics.  The variation by state is very high.  In New York, they show the disease pretty much gone by August (100 to 200 daily infections and a few daily deaths).  New Jersey and Connecticut are similar.  The resurgence seems to be mostly places that weren't hit hard the first time.  A lot of southern states, from Georgia to Texas, are shown with higher infection and death rates than they had before.  Louisiana got high pretty hard, so it would be harder to get higher numbers, but Louisiana's curve not only doesn't get higher than before, it looks more like New York, with the virus tapering off, although more slowly.  A quick overview makes it look like the states that were worst off before are expected to get a lot better, and those states that were spared are more likely to see rapid increases.  One that stands out to me is Minnesota, which has a pretty strong wave pattern, having been over a pretty big hump already and seeing another one ahead of them.

My first thought as to why the projections look this way is that places that were hit hard before would be more likely to be more careful, but that isn't what they're assuming.  New York and New Jersey are shown with increasing mobility the whole time, and Louisiana is shown with mobility going back nearly to normal.  Of course, if the counts are as low as projected in those places, then there's really no reason not to.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They appear to be assuming some kind of significant societal change or event in Georgia occurring on precisely August 14th, as the estimated infection projection abruptly starts sloping upward at that point. My best guess would be some sort of attempt at a "back-to-school" factor, though that would be a lazy implementation as not everyone starts school at the same time (plus that would be rather late based on typical schedules, which would likely have a start date within about a week in either direction of August 5th).

There is then also apparently some kind of major medical breakthrough scheduled for September 26th, which brings with it a sudden very sharp decrease in required hospital resources.

Yeah, forgive me if I don't put too much stock in this one.

That drop-off in hospital resource utilization at the end is strange, especially with infections rising.  I wouldn't take that as a reason to dismiss the whole thing.  I've been surprised at how accurate it's been, even with the swings that have happened.  As with weather forecasts, or sports rankings, as you get closer to the predicted event, or the end of the season, it gets more accurate.  That's expected.  The drop-off at the end is probably from some mathematical anomaly that they will figure out how to smooth over in future runs.  They may have been figuring that we'll shorten hospital stays by finding better treatments, but the computer put that whole effect on a certain day instead of blending it in gradually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 13, 2020, 09:26:36 AM
Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 13, 2020, 09:27:59 AM
Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 09:26:36 AM
Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

I thought most of the cases there were from a prison in eastern Arkansas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 11:06:58 AM
Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 09:26:36 AM
Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.
Wait what. How can infections go down if they are going up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Ben114 on June 13, 2020, 11:23:05 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 11:06:58 AM
Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 09:26:36 AM
Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.
Wait what. How can infections go down if they are going up?

They can't. It's just in a state which is rushing to reopen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 13, 2020, 11:23:40 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 13, 2020, 09:27:59 AM
Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 09:26:36 AM
Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

I thought most of the cases there were from a prison in eastern Arkansas.

Apparently not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on June 13, 2020, 02:04:50 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
They Hornets are stuck in Washington due to protests & restrictive travel.

They have allowed the cicadas to come out this year, & have decided to make their cross country trip in 2021.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on June 13, 2020, 02:29:50 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQtM1syENmQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...

Is it this year though?  I've been catching wind of a new "missing time"  conspiracy theory that puts us in 2012.  The crux of the "theory"  is that we are on the middle of the Mayan Apocalypse. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 13, 2020, 04:27:06 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?

Yay for allowing plastic pollution to become so common in the environment thanks to deregulation.

The murder hornets have not been confirmed further south than Bellingham, WA, but I'll let y'all know if I see one in my area. We were the first place in the U.S. to detect COVID, and we'll probably be the first to have someone stung by a murder hornet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 13, 2020, 04:38:02 PM
Hey Mom, remember when you threatened to slap me into next year?


Can I still take you up on that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on June 13, 2020, 05:51:22 PM
2019 - States banning plastics

2020 - Stores banning reusable bags forcing plastic bags back in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 05:53:43 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on June 13, 2020, 05:51:22 PM
2019 - States banning plastics

2020 - Stores banning reusable bags forcing plastic bags back in.

So you're saying that it wasn't the Charmin Bear behind COVID and really the plastic bag companies? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 13, 2020, 10:52:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...

Is it this year though?  I've been catching wind of a new "missing time"  conspiracy theory that puts us in 2012.  The crux of the "theory"  is that we are on the middle of the Mayan Apocalypse. 
Wow, that's a weird one.  I can think of a few critiques:
1. The 11 day jump (for the UK and its colonies) to switch to the Gregorian calendar was to account for the drift from the Julian calendar over the centuries since the date of Easter was standardized - it does not mean the Gregorian year is 11 days shorter than the Julian year.
2. Even if it did, the Mayan calendar is completely separate from both and the apocalypse would take place at the same time in both, whatever day each happened to declare for when it occurred.  Thus, the day of the Mayan apocalypse would NOT be December 21, 2012 on the Julian calendar.
3. If Nibiru was coming to destroy us next week, I'm sure someone would have noticed by now.
4. The Mayans didn't necessarily regard the end of their calendar cycle as an apocalypse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 13, 2020, 11:04:58 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 13, 2020, 10:52:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...

Is it this year though?  I've been catching wind of a new "missing time"  conspiracy theory that puts us in 2012.  The crux of the "theory"  is that we are on the middle of the Mayan Apocalypse. 
Wow, that's a weird one.  I can think of a few critiques:
1. The 11 day jump (for the UK and its colonies) to switch to the Gregorian calendar was to account for the drift from the Julian calendar over the centuries since the date of Easter was standardized - it does not mean the Gregorian year is 11 days shorter than the Julian year.
2. Even if it did, the Mayan calendar is completely separate from both and the apocalypse would take place at the same time in both, whatever day each happened to declare for when it occurred.  Thus, the day of the Mayan apocalypse would NOT be December 21, 2012 on the Julian calendar.
3. If Nibiru was coming to destroy us next week, I'm sure someone would have noticed by now.
4. The Mayans didn't necessarily regard the end of their calendar cycle as an apocalypse.

People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...time-y wimey...stuff. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 11:05:44 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 13, 2020, 10:52:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...

Is it this year though?  I've been catching wind of a new "missing time"  conspiracy theory that puts us in 2012.  The crux of the "theory"  is that we are on the middle of the Mayan Apocalypse. 
Wow, that's a weird one.  I can think of a few critiques:
1. The 11 day jump (for the UK and its colonies) to switch to the Gregorian calendar was to account for the drift from the Julian calendar over the centuries since the date of Easter was standardized - it does not mean the Gregorian year is 11 days shorter than the Julian year.
2. Even if it did, the Mayan calendar is completely separate from both and the apocalypse would take place at the same time in both, whatever day each happened to declare for when it occurred.  Thus, the day of the Mayan apocalypse would NOT be December 21, 2012 on the Julian calendar.
3. If Nibiru was coming to destroy us next week, I'm sure someone would have noticed by now.
4. The Mayans didn't necessarily regard the end of their calendar cycle as an apocalypse.

The gist of what I read made the assumption that the calendar year was 11 days shorter than it had been which is a well established to be incorrect.  The concept of the Mayan Calendar being the end of time is a modern invention, essentially it just would have started over. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 13, 2020, 11:11:13 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 11:04:58 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 13, 2020, 10:52:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...

Is it this year though?  I've been catching wind of a new "missing time"  conspiracy theory that puts us in 2012.  The crux of the "theory"  is that we are on the middle of the Mayan Apocalypse. 
Wow, that's a weird one.  I can think of a few critiques:
1. The 11 day jump (for the UK and its colonies) to switch to the Gregorian calendar was to account for the drift from the Julian calendar over the centuries since the date of Easter was standardized - it does not mean the Gregorian year is 11 days shorter than the Julian year.
2. Even if it did, the Mayan calendar is completely separate from both and the apocalypse would take place at the same time in both, whatever day each happened to declare for when it occurred.  Thus, the day of the Mayan apocalypse would NOT be December 21, 2012 on the Julian calendar.
3. If Nibiru was coming to destroy us next week, I'm sure someone would have noticed by now.
4. The Mayans didn't necessarily regard the end of their calendar cycle as an apocalypse.

People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...time-y wimey...stuff. ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 14, 2020, 12:08:58 AM
Quote from: Brandon on June 13, 2020, 11:11:13 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 11:04:58 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 13, 2020, 10:52:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...

Is it this year though?  I've been catching wind of a new "missing time"  conspiracy theory that puts us in 2012.  The crux of the "theory"  is that we are on the middle of the Mayan Apocalypse. 
Wow, that's a weird one.  I can think of a few critiques:
1. The 11 day jump (for the UK and its colonies) to switch to the Gregorian calendar was to account for the drift from the Julian calendar over the centuries since the date of Easter was standardized - it does not mean the Gregorian year is 11 days shorter than the Julian year.
2. Even if it did, the Mayan calendar is completely separate from both and the apocalypse would take place at the same time in both, whatever day each happened to declare for when it occurred.  Thus, the day of the Mayan apocalypse would NOT be December 21, 2012 on the Julian calendar.
3. If Nibiru was coming to destroy us next week, I'm sure someone would have noticed by now.
4. The Mayans didn't necessarily regard the end of their calendar cycle as an apocalypse.

People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly...time-y wimey...stuff. ;)



That's all any of us need right now is Weeping Angels.  Blink and your dead!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 14, 2020, 12:30:17 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 11:05:44 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 13, 2020, 10:52:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 03:36:40 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 13, 2020, 03:34:09 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?
This year man...

Is it this year though?  I've been catching wind of a new "missing time"  conspiracy theory that puts us in 2012.  The crux of the "theory"  is that we are on the middle of the Mayan Apocalypse. 
Wow, that's a weird one.  I can think of a few critiques:
1. The 11 day jump (for the UK and its colonies) to switch to the Gregorian calendar was to account for the drift from the Julian calendar over the centuries since the date of Easter was standardized - it does not mean the Gregorian year is 11 days shorter than the Julian year.
2. Even if it did, the Mayan calendar is completely separate from both and the apocalypse would take place at the same time in both, whatever day each happened to declare for when it occurred.  Thus, the day of the Mayan apocalypse would NOT be December 21, 2012 on the Julian calendar.
3. If Nibiru was coming to destroy us next week, I'm sure someone would have noticed by now.
4. The Mayans didn't necessarily regard the end of their calendar cycle as an apocalypse.

The gist of what I read made the assumption that the calendar year was 11 days shorter than it had been which is a well established to be incorrect.  The concept of the Mayan Calendar being the end of time is a modern invention, essentially it just would have started over.

The end of the Mayan calendar is their version of December 31.  It isn't the end of the world, it's just time to start a new calendar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 14, 2020, 12:50:38 AM
Quote from: Bruce on June 13, 2020, 04:27:06 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2020, 01:47:53 PM
Why are we all talking about Corona when we should be more worried about Plastic Rain?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/forget-acid-rain-plastic-rain-184931724.html

I was looking forward to my epic confrontation with the Murder Hornets, what happened to that?

Yay for allowing plastic pollution to become so common in the environment thanks to deregulation.

I mean, dust blowing about the atmosphere and being flushed out whenever it rains is a natural phenomenon that has been happening for as long as there has been rain.

That some of that dust is now made of plastic is certainly interesting, but is this actually consequential to the functioning of ecosystems in any way? The clickbaity article of course wants you to jump to the conclusion that it is. And I'm not saying it isn't, but this hasn't been addressed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 14, 2020, 05:21:03 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 14, 2020, 12:08:58 AM
That's all any of us need right now is Weeping Angels.  Blink and your dead!

Well, it is 2020...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

I have only so far met one person who has, a coworker who had it at the beginning of May but recovered before work reopened. She didn't have any of the stereotypical symptoms, just a crippling fatigue.

One of my coworkers went home halfway through Saturday night's shift with sudden onset of what could be covid symptoms (muscle soreness, shortness of breath). I'm alarmed because he came over to my house Thursday afternoon, so it's likely that if he has it, I do too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Truvelo on June 14, 2020, 06:41:56 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

Whilst not actually been tested I believe myself, mom+dad have had it. Last December he was admitted to hospital with pneumonia. At around the same time mom lost her sense of taste and smell which is still not fully back to normal. As I am in close contact with them if they had it then it's almost certain I have too but I didn't display any symptoms. Although December is well before official cases were recorded outside China it is generally believed the virus was already in circulation overseas before the end of the year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 14, 2020, 08:28:08 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

....

Our 17-year-old nephew in Florida tested positive in March and has since tested positive four more times. He's never shown any symptoms (the reason he was originally tested is that his father, who is a fireman, seemed to be showing symptoms so they tested the whole family, but only their son was positive).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 14, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
It seems like everywhere in the United States is getting a wave once and only once. Originally the Northeast plus Louisiana, then the Midwest plus Maine, then the Southeast plus California, and now it's the places that have had very few so far (AK, HI, MT, VT, OR) plus Arizona. Nobody seems to be getting it twice except possibly Louisiana. (The initial breakout in Washington wasn't large enough to count as one since it was so early.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 14, 2020, 09:01:34 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

I have only so far met one person who has, a coworker who had it at the beginning of May but recovered before work reopened. She didn't have any of the stereotypical symptoms, just a crippling fatigue.

One of my coworkers went home halfway through Saturday night's shift with sudden onset of what could be covid symptoms (muscle soreness, shortness of breath). I'm alarmed because he came over to my house Thursday afternoon, so it's likely that if he has it, I do too.

Some of my Wife's coworkers have tested positive at a mental health facility.  A couple of her family members were tested and came back negative.  My cousin was tested but came back negative also. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Ben114 on June 14, 2020, 10:12:02 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?
A classmate of mine tested positive along with his parents and siblings. (The father is a doctor working with COVID patients.) They were able to recover without hospitalization.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on June 14, 2020, 10:21:34 AM
Quote from: 1 on June 14, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
It seems like everywhere in the United States is getting a wave once and only once. Originally the Northeast plus Louisiana, then the Midwest plus Maine, then the Southeast plus California, and now it's the places that have had very few so far (AK, HI, MT, VT, OR) plus Arizona. Nobody seems to be getting it twice except possibly Louisiana. (The initial breakout in Washington wasn't large enough to count as one since it was so early.)

That's the strangest thing about it. It's bizarre seeing hundreds of people get together and there be no positive cases out of it in one place, and then another a huge chunk of people will have it. We've now had weeks of protests, mostly in cities that had the larger waves it, and next to nothing for a spike in cases.

Also, someone I know how works in a hospital in Massachusetts, can confirm the state's reporting of how many hospitalized, in ICU, and ventilated currently is a complete lie (the numbers reported are higher than actuality).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 14, 2020, 10:45:46 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on June 14, 2020, 10:21:34 AM
Quote from: 1 on June 14, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
It seems like everywhere in the United States is getting a wave once and only once. Originally the Northeast plus Louisiana, then the Midwest plus Maine, then the Southeast plus California, and now it's the places that have had very few so far (AK, HI, MT, VT, OR) plus Arizona. Nobody seems to be getting it twice except possibly Louisiana. (The initial breakout in Washington wasn't large enough to count as one since it was so early.)

That's the strangest thing about it. It's bizarre seeing hundreds of people get together and there be no positive cases out of it in one place, and then another a huge chunk of people will have it. We've now had weeks of protests, mostly in cities that had the larger waves it, and next to nothing for a spike in cases.

It comes down to testing. If they sense they have it and decide to stay home without being officially tested, they're not going to be counted.  Protesters especially probably aren't going to admit they were protesting, so even if they decide to get tested they will most likely blame it on another, vague reason. There are people that have to get tested due to work, or are fearful of the virus and get tested, and ultimately some of them will actually be found positive. 

QuoteAlso, someone I know how works in a hospital in Massachusetts, can confirm the state's reporting of how many hospitalized, in ICU, and ventilated currently is a complete lie (the numbers reported are higher than actuality).

Hopefully that person is reporting her suspicions to the proper supervisors and administrators. 

While I say that in jest, there have been so many rumors of some people claiming the numbers are underreported, and other people claiming the numbers are over reported, that the true number is probably close to what's being reported anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 14, 2020, 10:49:16 AM
 US is done with Covid-19 (https://time.com/5852913/covid-second-wave/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20200614&xid=newsletter-brief&et_rid=31908452) but it's not done with us.

Arkansas, as been previously stated, is reopening businesses while cases of Covid-19 are going up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on June 14, 2020, 11:19:14 AM
Quote from: 1 on June 14, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
It seems like everywhere in the United States is getting a wave once and only once. Originally the Northeast plus Louisiana, then the Midwest plus Maine, then the Southeast plus California, and now it's the places that have had very few so far (AK, HI, MT, VT, OR) plus Arizona. Nobody seems to be getting it twice except possibly Louisiana. (The initial breakout in Washington wasn't large enough to count as one since it was so early.)
I think this is counting chickens before they hatch.  I think the states where daily cases are currently increasing or stubbornly not decreasing are bound to start another wave due to lessening restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on June 14, 2020, 01:27:40 PM
Quote from: Rothman on June 14, 2020, 11:19:14 AM
Quote from: 1 on June 14, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
It seems like everywhere in the United States is getting a wave once and only once. Originally the Northeast plus Louisiana, then the Midwest plus Maine, then the Southeast plus California, and now it's the places that have had very few so far (AK, HI, MT, VT, OR) plus Arizona. Nobody seems to be getting it twice except possibly Louisiana. (The initial breakout in Washington wasn't large enough to count as one since it was so early.)
I think this is counting chickens before they hatch.  I think the states where daily cases are currently increasing or stubbornly not decreasing are bound to start another wave due to lessening restrictions.

I've been starting to look at this more on the local level. Cases in Georgia as a whole appear to be increasing much like with the rest of the South (if maybe not at quite the rate of neighboring states). But if we look at the two cities that previously had major outbreaks, Albany and Gainesville, we're not seeing that same trend. Here are the Department of Health's numbers for Dougherty and Hall Counties (note that I'm looking only at the data outside the "14-day window" as the numbers from within the last two weeks are provisional):

(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ften93.com%2F2020%2Fcovid-dougherty.png&hash=52bd4ed895b02922c20ce697eb88b1ca72ca91ad) (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ften93.com%2F2020%2Fcovid-hall.png&hash=071563c28dbf29b9382ef38d1759b65d36a0bc30)

Contrast those with Gwinnett County in metro Atlanta, which has not had such an outbreak previously:

(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ften93.com%2F2020%2Fcovid-gwinnett.png&hash=89b418433a73073e32a1c47820c0ec53a2db72fc)

So I think there may be something to the idea that once there's been a notable peak it doesn't seem to be happening again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 14, 2020, 02:11:11 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 14, 2020, 10:49:16 AM
US is done with Covid-19 (https://time.com/5852913/covid-second-wave/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20200614&xid=newsletter-brief&et_rid=31908452) but it's not done with us.

Arkansas, as been previously stated, is reopening businesses while cases of Covid-19 are going up.

As attributed (probably falsely) to Mark Twain, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That sudden spike in Michigan cases shown in the Time data in early June was because the state started counting "presumed" cases and deaths.  People had never been confirmed as having COVID by testing, but were presumed to have it based on symptoms.  Since they couldn't "presume" when those cases happened, they added them all at once, a nearly 10% jump.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 14, 2020, 03:42:54 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

A colleague of my supervisor who works in Lexington tested positive several weeks ago. I don't really know him well, but am acquainted with him. He has asthma and went to the doctor for asthma-related issues but wasn't presenting any of the major symptoms. His doctor asked him if he wanted to be tested, and he said, "sure, why not?" He was surprised to have a positive result. He never did develop symptoms and has since recovered.

We have one person in my county that's tested positive. This was a child who was tested in advance of a medical procedure. Interestingly enough, the parents tested negative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 14, 2020, 04:38:31 PM
My gym posted a couple updates on their website after being open for a couple days:

-  Masks are recommended during workouts but not required.  That "recommend"  line is brand new. 
-  Now members are supposed to wipe down their bench/machine before they use it and not just after. 

I'll probably be heading over at 7 AM after I run and eat tomorrow morning.  It will be interesting to see if the crowd has tapered any, especially after when rush hour begins.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 14, 2020, 05:27:52 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 14, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
It seems like everywhere in the United States is getting a wave once and only once. Originally the Northeast plus Louisiana, then the Midwest plus Maine, then the Southeast plus California, and now it's the places that have had very few so far (AK, HI, MT, VT, OR) plus Arizona. Nobody seems to be getting it twice except possibly Louisiana. (The initial breakout in Washington wasn't large enough to count as one since it was so early.)

We still haven't left the first wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on June 14, 2020, 08:07:36 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

I have only so far met one person who has, a coworker who had it at the beginning of May but recovered before work reopened. She didn't have any of the stereotypical symptoms, just a crippling fatigue.

One of my coworkers went home halfway through Saturday night's shift with sudden onset of what could be covid symptoms (muscle soreness, shortness of breath). I'm alarmed because he came over to my house Thursday afternoon, so it's likely that if he has it, I do too.

I have not tested positive, but I am pretty sure I had Covid back in the first couple weeks of February.

I believe that the Friday before the Super Bowl, one of my family members started feeling sick and she threw up. Turns out she drank some spoiled milk, but afterwards she still felt bad. Then on Saturday, I didn't feel right, and so did my parents.

That Sunday I was supposed to play piano at church, so I called in sick with my youth pastor. I texted him and he replied that a number of other youth group members, some of which were in the band with me, including my GF, had also called in sick that same day. That should have been a red flag.

I was sick on and off for basically the rest of the month. I had a headache, a fever, and a really bad wet cough. That cough never really went away for about a month. One of my parents also had chills and a temperature of 104 or so, so they went to the doctor. They were diagnosed with bronchitis (not the flu) and was put on antibiotics.

Interestingly, when they went to the doctor, the waiting room was full of people with similar symptoms.

My children's pastor had it really bad as well. She had the same symptoms as my parent, but also had pinkeye and I believe pneumonia.

I might have been Covid, but it could have been the flu. Just saying, I've had the flu before but it didn't feel like that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 15, 2020, 02:06:20 AM
Quote from: Eth on June 14, 2020, 01:27:40 PM
So I think there may be something to the idea that once there's been a notable peak it doesn't seem to be happening again.

Eh... all this really means is that the local outbreak subsided. It does not preclude the occurrence of a second local outbreak, but not enough time has gone by for that to have happened yet.

Local is the correct way to look at this though. Cases naturally occur in clusters, an outbreak 100 miles away from where you live doesn't necessarily mean your area is at comparable risk even if it is within the same state. But it does mean it's important to not interact with the people who live in the area of the outbreak.

Quote from: SectorZ on June 14, 2020, 10:21:34 AM
That's the strangest thing about it. It's bizarre seeing hundreds of people get together and there be no positive cases out of it in one place, and then another a huge chunk of people will have it. We've now had weeks of protests, mostly in cities that had the larger waves it, and next to nothing for a spike in cases.

Possibly important fact: protests are outdoors. Respiratory infections spread less readily outdoors because air movement disperses virus-carrying droplets.

Also possibly important fact: there is a very conspicuous correlation with where spikes are currently being seen and latitude. Places further south = places where it's hotter = places where people are more likely to gather indoors because it's not bearable without air conditioning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 15, 2020, 02:51:18 AM
Quote from: Truvelo on June 14, 2020, 06:41:56 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

Whilst not actually been tested I believe myself, mom+dad have had it. Last December he was admitted to hospital with pneumonia. At around the same time mom lost her sense of taste and smell which is still not fully back to normal. As I am in close contact with them if they had it then it's almost certain I have too but I didn't display any symptoms. Although December is well before official cases were recorded outside China it is generally believed the virus was already in circulation overseas before the end of the year.

Quote from: CoreySamson on June 14, 2020, 08:07:36 PM
I have not tested positive, but I am pretty sure I had Covid back in the first couple weeks of February.

A lot of my coworkers caught something over the winter, so they (as well as management) believe they're immune to it. But then my coworker tested positive for it in May, so whatever was going around in December was not COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 15, 2020, 08:52:23 AM
I have a friend who was really sick in December with Covid-like symptoms and swore he had it even though there was no evidence that could be the case.  He finally took an antibody test....and he didn't have it.

Even early February in Texas was more than likely a different resperatory infection of some sort. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 15, 2020, 12:26:15 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 11:23:40 AM

Quote from: bandit957 on June 13, 2020, 09:27:59 AM

Quote from: US71 on June 13, 2020, 09:26:36 AM
Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

I thought most of the cases there were from a prison in eastern Arkansas.

Apparently not.

Communiqué from work that was issued Thursday afternoon:

Quote
The Arkansas Department of Health is reporting 448 new cases since yesterday's report. 49 percent of those come from Washington (143) and Benton Counties (78). Of the new Washington County cases, 93 percent are located in Springdale. The CDC team will be arriving tomorrow to assist the Department of Health with the breakout in NWA.

This was pertinent, because our regional office is in Springdale, and almost all of our work in that region is done in Benton and Washington Counties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 15, 2020, 01:22:30 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

A friend's mom was in an assisted living facility and got it.  They determined it was a maintenance worker that happened to stop in the room one night passed it to her. After a few tough days, she improved and is fine now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ET21 on June 15, 2020, 03:38:18 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
Has anyone on the forum tested positive for covid, or know someone who has?

My aunt had it but has gotten past the worse symptoms. Few of my friends have been exposed and did 14 day quarantines. No direct exposure for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 16, 2020, 12:21:43 AM
Our malls have started reopening, with limited capacity at stores. Mask requirements are on a store-by-store basis, which is unfortunate given how many people aren't wearing them properly (if at all).

REI is at least doing it right. They had someone outside to manage the lines.

(https://i.imgur.com/Rh0n9VX.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: D-Dey65 on June 16, 2020, 03:54:17 PM
Thankfully, I don't know anybody who has... at least anybody that I can remember.

Back in November some of my Wiki-Photography crusades brought me into Flushing, which as far as I know is still considered "the Chinatown of Queens," despite the influx of Chinese in other Queens neighborhoods from Jackson Heights to Bayside. This was one of my targets:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:United_States_Post_Office_(Flushing,_Queens)

Around the time the news of the virus was spreading, I considered the possibility it may have been in the city sooner, especially in the various Chinatowns of the city. The worst problems I had to deal with since I got back from my time in the tri-state area were sinus problems, and I can get those even without traveling to and from the region of the country I consider to be my true home.

As of now, I haven't been tested yet... and I'm not really sure I want to get tested.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 16, 2020, 05:07:58 PM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on June 16, 2020, 03:54:17 PM
As of now, I haven't been tested yet... and I'm not really sure I want to get tested.

It's not that bad. Unpleasant, but the unpleasantness lasts 30 seconds or so. It's probably not even as unpleasant as getting an injection.

It may depend on how experienced the person administering the test is, of course. When I was tested it was done by a nurse that had been standing outside doing drive-thru testing all day. A general practitioner who doesn't do nasal swabs very often may be a bit rougher.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 16, 2020, 08:52:04 PM
Here's an interesting site tracking hospitalizations I came across.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html
You can even separate different groups and see the effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 16, 2020, 10:26:11 PM
I flew on Monday, to Jackson, Mississippi. I've done the drive enough and round-trip airfare was $189. Besides, I had to two hours south near the Louisiana border, so the whole thing would have taken me about 7 hours (over 5-6 hours, they let us book air travel). This was also because we have a flight to Seattle to visit family in three weeks, and this was a sort of test drive of what it's like for air travel right now.

The airports strongly suggest masks: maybe 60-70% wear them all the time. There seemed to be enough room for everyone to distance themselves, though people sometimes aren't very good at that. It's not hard to follow in single line lines, but some folks still insist on the phalanx formation in Atlanta. To be fair, the D concourse is the narrowest, but I also didn't have to take the little train or the underground hallway. So it wasn't very crowded...think 25-30% capacity at HSV (considering that many flights have been cancelled and consolidated) and 30-40% at Atlanta.

There's was a slightly longer line as there weren't as many TSA workers. The TSA asks you to lift up your mask after presenting your ID and boarding pass. You can bring up to 12 ounces of hand sanitizer; I don't need that much of it, just a few ounces. Carrying wipes is a must for rental cars and hotels; the TSA doesn't say how much they'll allow, but I was able to bring 10 folded Lysol wipes in a plastic bag with no issues. I put the sanitizer in a separate bag outside the usual items.

I typically fly Delta, but since I must look ahead to flights 6-8 weeks out, I have no allegiance to any airline right now. For one, flights in/out/returning (with decent layovers) are tough to find, so you get whatever is available. Also, airline loyalty has been extended throughout 2021 regardless of what you fly throughout 2020.

The gate agents would offer people masks, and ask that you put it on your face when boarding. The typical pre-boarders can go first (wheelchairs, people needing assistance, et cetera), but then they board the back of the plane first (by rows, in groups of five) then move up. If you're in first class, you board whenever you feel like. Overall, the flights were about 30-40% full, but they've blocked off about 50% of the seats in advance. I sat next to nobody on both flights.

The airline gave everyone a little bag with an 8oz bottle of water, a pack of cookies, almonds/granola bar, a single-serve packet of hand sanitizer, and a Purell wipe for your seat. The airplane actually looked fairly clean; usually there's crumbs, grease on the window panes, panels are rarely spotless. I suppose people are actually cleaning them up now, or the lack of flights means they have more time to clean them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
Thanks for the detailed post about your airport experiences! We're considering flying later this summer, so that's really interesting and helpful. It might ultimately come down to whether the 2-week quarantine upon arrival is still in effect, but nice to know that airports are creaking to life somewhat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 16, 2020, 11:37:02 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
It might ultimately come down to whether the 2-week quarantine upon arrival is still in effect

Which state's? Hawaii? Alaska? New Mexico (for air travelers only)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: roadman65 on June 16, 2020, 11:42:59 PM
My supervisor informed me that being the Fireworks that are traditionally held on Independence Day at the Washington Monument will be held thousands of miles away in Mount Rushmore National Park in South Dakota.  I do not know if that is true or not, but it does seem plausible being SD never had stay at home and social distancing during this whole pandemic. 

Plus DC has a stay at home plus the protests on Mr. Trump's doorstep and being no one wants to celebrate anyway as the tone from this racism and that the history of our nation is believed to have created it, many would not support it anyway.  In fact, this on the other hand would be a welcome change.  Not to stab DC in the back, but a change of location might just do some good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:47:24 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 16, 2020, 11:37:02 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
It might ultimately come down to whether the 2-week quarantine upon arrival is still in effect

Which state's? Hawaii? Alaska? New Mexico (for air travelers only)?

Minnesota. Some friends went last week and decided to drive because they couldn't stay the (supposedly) required 2 weeks after air travel. However, I'm having trouble finding an official answer online as to whether that requirement ever was, or still is, in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 11:26:20 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:47:24 PM

Quote from: oscar on June 16, 2020, 11:37:02 PM

Quote from: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
It might ultimately come down to whether the 2-week quarantine upon arrival is still in effect

Which state's? Hawaii? Alaska? New Mexico (for air travelers only)?

Minnesota. Some friends went last week and decided to drive because they couldn't stay the (supposedly) required 2 weeks after air travel. However, I'm having trouble finding an official answer online as to whether that requirement ever was, or still is, in place.

I can find no record of Minnesota or New York having issued such a restriction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 01:32:27 PM
Reading customer satisfaction surveys for our field technicians, I've seen customers who...

(a)  ...are irritated that their technician didn't wear a mask when greeting them at the door or when passing equipment back and forth over the threshold, and wish more restrictive policies were in place;

(b)  ...are irritated that their technician wasn't allowed to come inside the home to actually troubleshoot firsthand, and wish less restrictive policies were in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 17, 2020, 03:34:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 11:26:20 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:47:24 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 16, 2020, 11:37:02 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 16, 2020, 11:29:45 PM
It might ultimately come down to whether the 2-week quarantine upon arrival is still in effect
Which state's? Hawaii? Alaska? New Mexico (for air travelers only)?
Minnesota. Some friends went last week and decided to drive because they couldn't stay the (supposedly) required 2 weeks after air travel. However, I'm having trouble finding an official answer online as to whether that requirement ever was, or still is, in place.

I can find no record of Minnesota or New York having issued such a restriction.

Well, that's why I included that last sentence. Just to be clear that this was based on hearsay and not anything official.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 03:36:17 PM
That is, however, quite a drastic change to one's travel plans based on hearsay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 17, 2020, 03:43:54 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 03:36:17 PM
That is, however, quite a drastic change to one's travel plans based on hearsay.

Well, I probably shouldn't have even mentioned it, since who knows if we'll end up traveling at all?

I guess all I'm saying is, if the idea of traveling to Minnesota ever starts turning into an actual plan to travel there, whether there's a 2-week quarantine requirement will be a major factor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on June 17, 2020, 03:46:27 PM
We have no such quarantine restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 03:53:08 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 17, 2020, 03:43:54 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 03:36:17 PM
That is, however, quite a drastic change to one's travel plans based on hearsay.

Well, I probably shouldn't have even mentioned it, since who knows if we'll end up traveling at all?

I guess all I'm saying is, if the idea of traveling to Minnesota ever starts turning into an actual plan to travel there, whether there's a 2-week quarantine requirement will be a major factor.

I meant your friends, who apparently decided to drive a thousand miles instead of flying, based on a restriction that didn't exist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 17, 2020, 04:12:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 03:53:08 PM
I meant your friends, who apparently decided to drive a thousand miles instead of flying, based on a restriction that didn't exist.

Oh, gotcha. Well, I heard second-hand that that was the reason, so who knows what they actually thought?  :-D

Yeah, I really should have kept my blabbermouth shut. Live and learn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 04:18:56 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 17, 2020, 04:12:31 PM
I really should have kept my blabbermouth shut. Live and learn.

Nah.

Now you know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 17, 2020, 04:23:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 01:32:27 PM
Reading customer satisfaction surveys for our field technicians, I've seen customers who...

(a)  ...are irritated that their technician didn't wear a mask when greeting them at the door or when passing equipment back and forth over the threshold, and wish more restrictive policies were in place;

(b)  ...are irritated that their technician wasn't allowed to come inside the home to actually troubleshoot firsthand, and wish less restrictive policies were in place.

I think these are both reasonable positions to hold. If I were having Internet problems, I would be annoyed if the tech didn't both wear a mask and come in to resolve the issue. (I can troubleshoot my own router issues; if I call the ISP, it is because something is messed up on Cox's end and I have no ability to fix it.) I would imagine a tech standing at the door asking troubleshooting questions without actually accessing the hardware wouldn't be able to do much more than the first-level tech on the phone already did ("would you try rebooting the modem for me?").
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 17, 2020, 04:25:15 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on June 17, 2020, 03:46:27 PM
We have no such quarantine restrictions.
Quote from: kphoger on June 17, 2020, 04:18:56 PM
Now you know.

Fair enough. Finding that much out was a nice bonus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 18, 2020, 11:11:54 AM
Quote from: Brandon on June 16, 2020, 08:52:04 PM
Here's an interesting site tracking hospitalizations I came across.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html
You can even separate different groups and see the effects.

I saw (or read) something out of Italy that said that a very high percentage of their COVID deaths were in the presence of multiple other underlying conditions
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on June 18, 2020, 11:28:11 AM
Well, seems I was right about my second wave prediction. Cases in Texas (and some other states) have been skyrocketing ever since the protests started.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 18, 2020, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: CoreySamson on June 18, 2020, 11:28:11 AM
Well, seems I was right about my second wave prediction. Cases in Texas (and some other states) have been skyrocketing ever since the protests started.


In many states where there have been large protests over either the stay at home orders or the racial injustice issues, have seen very little increase.  I mean, Minnesota has seen no significant increase and they were at the epicenter.  Of course that could come in the next week or so.

States that have seen an uptick have been those who have lessened restrictions and look like they have large indoor gatherings - probably cause its too hot and people are seeking air conditioning?

I think we have seen two things come out of this.  Outdoor transmission isn't much of a worry.  Indoor transmission, where people are close to one another for extended periods of time and the air is stale, is VERY MUCH of a worry.  (Bars, nursing homes, etc.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:45:43 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 18, 2020, 11:11:54 AMI saw (or read) something out of Italy that said that a very high percentage of their COVID deaths were in the presence of multiple other underlying conditions

Yes.  On the other hand, there is abundant anecdotal evidence that for many young covid-19 patients without underlying conditions, recovery does not equate to 100% return to health.  You are counted as recovered even if the disease leaves you needing a double lung transplant, for example.  I am growing increasingly concerned about what we will find out when we are able to do some statistical analysis on the long-term disease burden that results from contracting covid-19 and then recovering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on June 18, 2020, 11:59:35 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:45:43 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 18, 2020, 11:11:54 AMI saw (or read) something out of Italy that said that a very high percentage of their COVID deaths were in the presence of multiple other underlying conditions

Yes.  On the other hand, there is abundant anecdotal evidence that for many young covid-19 patients without underlying conditions, recovery does not equate to 100% return to health.  You are counted as recovered even if the disease leaves you needing a double lung transplant, for example.  I am growing increasingly concerned about what we will find out when we are able to do some statistical analysis on the long-term disease burden that results from contracting covid-19 and then recovering.

Young and without underlying conditions only because they're still young possibly. I'd love to know if they've been smoking (cigarettes or weed), are significantly overweight, or drink a lot. It may be that their behavior didn't catch up to them yet and Covid accelerated the timetable. It would be consistent with those older that got severely sick (almost all have underlying conditions).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 18, 2020, 12:11:54 PM
For instance, the correlation of this map to the states who had the strictest stay at home orders is pretty clear.  Plus these are the states who are just emerging into summer and have less indoor transmission.

https://twitter.com/GovNedLamont/status/1273333468794159116?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 18, 2020, 12:29:29 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on June 18, 2020, 11:59:35 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:45:43 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 18, 2020, 11:11:54 AMI saw (or read) something out of Italy that said that a very high percentage of their COVID deaths were in the presence of multiple other underlying conditions

Yes.  On the other hand, there is abundant anecdotal evidence that for many young covid-19 patients without underlying conditions, recovery does not equate to 100% return to health.  You are counted as recovered even if the disease leaves you needing a double lung transplant, for example.  I am growing increasingly concerned about what we will find out when we are able to do some statistical analysis on the long-term disease burden that results from contracting covid-19 and then recovering.

Young and without underlying conditions only because they're still young possibly. I'd love to know if they've been smoking (cigarettes or weed), are significantly overweight, or drink a lot. It may be that their behavior didn't catch up to them yet and Covid accelerated the timetable. It would be consistent with those older that got severely sick (almost all have underlying conditions).
If anything, one can easily expect covid to become just another cold virus once initial innocent immunity status is over.
Kids are having serious colds all the time, but mostly recover without a trace.

An interesting piece of data: a family who was isolated from the rest of the world for a few decades got heavily affected by... something after coming out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lykov_family
There was at least one pneumonia, and I am not sure if kidney failures were actually just that. I wouldn't be surprised if one of today's common cold coronaviruses did to them something similar to what covid is doing with the rest of us today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 18, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 18, 2020, 12:11:54 PM
For instance, the correlation of this map to the states who had the strictest stay at home orders is pretty clear.  Plus these are the states who are just emerging into summer and have less indoor transmission.

https://twitter.com/GovNedLamont/status/1273333468794159116?s=20
I can see a clear north-south divide here and also an east-west divide. Always knew this was the best region of the country...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 18, 2020, 01:38:23 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 18, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 18, 2020, 12:11:54 PM
For instance, the correlation of this map to the states who had the strictest stay at home orders is pretty clear.  Plus these are the states who are just emerging into summer and have less indoor transmission.

https://twitter.com/GovNedLamont/status/1273333468794159116?s=20
I can see a clear north-south divide here and also an east-west divide. Always knew this was the best region of the country...

What I find interesting about this chart is that Maine is only in the yellow.

Could it be that while they're mandating 14 day quarantining for out-of-state residents, they're giving their own residents a free pass.  This free pass means after they've travelled, they're going out on the town infecting each other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 18, 2020, 02:26:25 PM
I think that's the case for a lot of states - they figured "we don't need to do anything, it's those people from other states bringing it here that are the problem, just quarantine them", and that attitude has now come back to bite them in the rear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 18, 2020, 02:31:34 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on June 18, 2020, 11:59:35 AM

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:45:43 AM

Quote from: ftballfan on June 18, 2020, 11:11:54 AM
I saw (or read) something out of Italy that said that a very high percentage of their COVID deaths were in the presence of multiple other underlying conditions

Yes.  On the other hand, there is abundant anecdotal evidence that for many young covid-19 patients without underlying conditions, recovery does not equate to 100% return to health.  You are counted as recovered even if the disease leaves you needing a double lung transplant, for example.  I am growing increasingly concerned about what we will find out when we are able to do some statistical analysis on the long-term disease burden that results from contracting covid-19 and then recovering.

Young and without underlying conditions only because they're still young possibly. I'd love to know if they've been smoking (cigarettes or weed), are significantly overweight, or drink a lot. It may be that their behavior didn't catch up to them yet and Covid accelerated the timetable. It would be consistent with those older that got severely sick (almost all have underlying conditions).

Obesity and hypertension are the top 2 "underlying conditions" in the US.  Ergo, if they're significantly overweight, then they're already not counted as "without underlying conditions".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 18, 2020, 03:04:52 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 18, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
I can see a clear north-south divide here and also an east-west divide. Always knew this was the best region of the country...

Yeah, clearly the Northeast and Midwest/Plains are doing better than other regions of the country.

I said right from the beginning that Upstate NY was in the best possible situation: in a state that got hit really hard, but physically far away from the worst of the outbreak. That has been a huge advantage at every step of the way, everyone takes it pretty seriously here because of NYC. I still can't believe there's areas of the country where mask wearing hasn't become the norm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 18, 2020, 03:06:47 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on June 18, 2020, 03:01:42 PM
I don't even know anymore. This is never going to get contained.


It will.  Pandemics die down.  A vaccine, even one that isn't perfectly effective, will help a lot.  Treatments are improving.  Knowledge is being gained.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 18, 2020, 03:07:17 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on June 18, 2020, 03:01:42 PM
I don't even know anymore. This is never going to get contained.

Is containment really what we're aiming for?

Quote from: Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General / 11 MAR 2020
And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 18, 2020, 09:25:32 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should shall be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

Masks don't need to be required when just going out for a walk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:29:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 18, 2020, 09:25:32 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should shall be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

Masks don't need to be required when just going out for a walk.

I think you missed the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 18, 2020, 09:43:47 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 18, 2020, 03:04:52 PM
I still can't believe there's areas of the country where mask wearing hasn't become the norm.

For a while there, some people trotted out some excuse why they couldn't wear one when they saw you wear one. Now, I don't even hear excuses. I guess people just stopped caring for others because whatever excuse they want to believe is the one they'll run with. Some people have to make a living, I suppose...and so do I. But that was part of the social contract: if you want things to be open again, you have to shoulder some public responsibility. And whenever you have to rely on that R-word in a public sense, it falls apart when too many aim for the margins and bend limits as much as possible. Everyone's a snowflake now, even those who deem others frosty bits of precipitation or nutjobs when it's something they don't believe in.

Most people that I see wearing them consistently seem to be "at work", or are genuinely concerned. Masks are less-common sights in some of the more rural or small-town places I've traveled to. I've been to Selma, Alabama and probably 70-75% of the folks I met and customers I saw were wearing masks, a slightly higher percentage in Atlanta, back to a little less in Cairo-Paducah-Sikeston, and next to none out here in the north-eastern corner of Louisiana. But in my area of Huntsville, it's really hit-or-miss...maybe 80-90% of people wore them two months ago, and my estimates have dropped to less than half in stores, and almost nobody in my neighborhood when the food trucks come out and everyone (else) starts socializing.

My co-workers aren't even all that good at staying six feet apart, and it's not as if it's their first time out of the house since March. Figure it out, I don't want to go to a restaurant for an hour, I don't want to sit next to someone who travels as much as I do and is the loudest (and most-expelling) one in the room, I try to go to the store 30 minutes before closing to minimize my impacts on others. I'm not going to be 100% free from this, I understand that. But every reasonable chance at reduction counts for something. If I get it, I'll survive...but I think there's others who might not. It pains me to see older folks out there in this maelstrom and I honestly tend to feel a little guilty for my actions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:00:06 PM
Quote from: formulanone on June 18, 2020, 09:43:47 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 18, 2020, 03:04:52 PMI still can't believe there's areas of the country where mask wearing hasn't become the norm.

For a while there, some people trotted out some excuse why they couldn't wear one when they saw you wear one. Now, I don't even hear excuses. I guess people just stopped caring for others because whatever excuse they want to believe is the one they'll run with. Some people have to make a living, I suppose...and so do I. But that was part of the social contract: if you want things to be open again, you have to shoulder some public responsibility. And whenever you have to rely on that R-word in a public sense, it falls apart when too many aim for the margins and bend limits as much as possible. Everyone's a snowflake now, even those who deem others frosty bits of precipitation or nutjobs when it's something they don't believe in.

In my local area, mask wearing is only a recommendation, and it is one that is followed by half of the population at best.  Few members of the county commission wear masks even though the advice is given in their name (as the local health board).

I confess I started wearing a mask comparatively late, about three weeks after the CDC recommended cloth face coverings.  I dismissed the don't-tread-on-me argument right away.  My initial reluctance had more to do with a sense that social distancing was the gold standard and wearing a mask might amount to a perverse incentive not to maintain it.  Eventually I realized that many people are just inept at maintaining a six-foot space bubble, faces covered or not, and let the decision to wear a mask be driven by the benefits of modelling pro-social behavior.

As the pandemic has worn on and we have entered the current false dawn of reopening, I have become slapdash.  I basically reuse a medical mask and keep it in my car trunk so I can pull it on when I park and pull it off when I am about to leave.  When I am grocery shopping, I no longer wait for people to clear out of my bubble before I pick up what I need.  I never used hand sanitizer, and still don't, though I generally try to ensure I wash my hands once I am back at home, and haven't used a public bathroom at all since March (toilets are excellent at aerosolizing germs).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 18, 2020, 11:09:52 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:29:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 18, 2020, 09:25:32 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should shall be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)
Masks don't need to be required when just going out for a walk.
I think you missed the point.

I guess the state wins, so it doesn't matter what Fayetteville says.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 18, 2020, 11:25:47 PM
Quote from: formulanone on June 18, 2020, 09:43:47 PM
I've been to Selma, Alabama and probably 70-75% of the folks I met and customers I saw were wearing masks, a slightly higher percentage in Atlanta, back to a little less in Cairo-Paducah-Sikeston, and next to none out here in the north-eastern corner of Louisiana. But in my area of Huntsville, it's really hit-or-miss...maybe 80-90% of people wore them two months ago, and my estimates have dropped to less than half in stores ...
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:00:06 PM
In my local area, mask wearing is only a recommendation, and it is one that is followed by half of the population at best.  Few members of the county commission wear masks even though the advice is given in their name (as the local health board).

Interesting! Around here, you get seriously funny looks for not wearing a mask in indoor public places. Everyone requires it: grocery stores, convenience stores, banks, restaurants (while not eating), clothing stores now that they've reopened, etc. And people have been pretty good about abiding by it, too. In my last trip to the grocery store I saw a grand total of 2 people without masks in the store, and they were getting a lot of funny looks - including from me, because I just couldn't help but notice. I should note that I'm currently in a suburban area. I imagine the rate of mask wearing is lower in both the inner city and rural areas.


Quote from: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:00:06 PM
I basically reuse a medical mask and keep it in my car trunk so I can pull it on when I park and pull it off when I am about to leave.

A lot of people in this area keep them handy in the front of their vehicle. Probably at least 1/4 - 1/3 of cars will have one or more masks hanging from the internal rearview mirror. I keep a small stash in the glovebox.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 18, 2020, 11:50:36 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 18, 2020, 01:38:23 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 18, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
I can see a clear north-south divide here and also an east-west divide. Always knew this was the best region of the country...

What I find interesting about this chart is that Maine is only in the yellow.

Could it be that while they're mandating 14 day quarantining for out-of-state residents, they're giving their own residents a free pass.  This free pass means after they've travelled, they're going out on the town infecting each other.

I think this is simply a consequence of what the colors actually mean: they say nothing about the current number of cases in a state, only about whether they are clearly increasing (red), more or less holding steady (yellow) or clearly decreasing (green).

Maine is yellow because it never had that many cases to begin with. It's holding steady at a low number. It can't be green no matter what it does since it doesn't have a large caseload to decrease from.

Meanwhile states like Vermont and Hawaii get colored red for going from having had basically no cases recently to now having a small handful. Still not a lot, but it's an upward trend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 18, 2020, 11:52:05 PM
I visited Yosemite National Park today after I book a reservation for Day Use.  The Park Staff was wearing masks at the attendant booths but really there wasn't much different aside all the campgrounds being closed down.  Yosemite on the whole was open 5 AM to 11 PM for Day use but I'm to understand that's pretty easy to get around by way of applying for a Wilderness Permit.  There was a large amount of people taking advantage of the ease of getting Wilderness Permits at Hetch Hetchy of all places.  The traffic volume was pretty nominal for this time of year and I could have parked directly in front of the Yosemite Falls Trailheads at 10 AM if so desired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 19, 2020, 03:35:42 AM
I had a customer argue with me at work on Monday because I wouldn't serve him without him putting his mask on (he preferred to wear it around his neck). Company policy is that face masks must be on unless the customer is eating, drinking, or smoking. His reason for not wanting to wear a mask was because COVID-19 is fake and I shouldn't watch the news so much.

Quote from: Scott5114 on June 14, 2020, 05:47:42 AM
One of my coworkers went home halfway through Saturday night's shift with sudden onset of what could be covid symptoms (muscle soreness, shortness of breath). I'm alarmed because he came over to my house Thursday afternoon, so it's likely that if he has it, I do too.

My coworker notified me that he received his test results today–negative, so I am in the clear...for the time being...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 08:05:04 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 19, 2020, 03:35:42 AM
His reason for not wanting to wear a mask was because COVID-19 is fake and I shouldn't watch the news so much.

Obviously, we know who's the one getting the fake news, but I can't put too much blame on people in areas that haven't been hit badly yet for conceiving the idea that it's overhyped. That will all change if/when there's actually a bad outbreak in your area, though.

And it's also why I think it will end up being an advantage to have been hit hard earlier on - there's a lot less naysayers and generally a lot more compliance with government recommendations, reducing not only confrontational interactions like you had, but also the likelihood of a bad second or third wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 19, 2020, 08:07:04 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 19, 2020, 03:35:42 AM
I had a customer argue with me at work on Monday because I wouldn't serve him without him putting his mask on (he preferred to wear it around his neck). Company policy is that face masks must be on unless the customer is eating, drinking, or smoking. His reason for not wanting to wear a mask was because COVID-19 is fake and I shouldn't watch the news so much.

....

So what was the result of the argument?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on June 19, 2020, 08:26:39 AM
I don't wear a mask unless absolutely necessary (i.e. if I enter a shop to buy something). Outside I prefer to keep distance with everyone and besides that I wear glasses and I don't want them to become foggy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 09:39:18 AM
Quote from: formulanone on June 18, 2020, 09:43:47 PM
I don't even hear excuses. I guess people just stopped caring for others

That's such a crock.  When the swine flu was going around, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they walked around without masks on.  But now suddenly, because there's something going around that's worse than the swine flu, you feel justified in claiming that.  Not wearing a mask doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's necessary.

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:00:06 PM
In my local area, mask wearing is only a recommendation, and it is one that is followed by half of the population at best. 

Indeed.  As I've already mentioned up-thread, I've even had a restaurant waitress without a mask serve my wife and me on a date.  Day before yesterday, I noticed that none of the gas station convenience store attendants were wearing masks when my family took a walk over there to buy snacks.  Around here, mask wearing has never been ubiquitous.

Quote from: webny99 on June 18, 2020, 11:25:47 PM
Around here, you get seriously funny looks for not wearing a mask in indoor public places. Everyone requires it: grocery stores, convenience stores, banks, restaurants (while not eating), clothing stores now that they've reopened, etc.

I've only been to one business that required a mask, and that was a store that has seriously crowded aisles and shoppers in very close proximity.  If ever there were store that should require them, that store is the one.

So far, I've worn a mask a total of three times, and the other two times were at a grocery store that has a sign on the door saying to "please" wear masks.  But I don't think it's actually required, and I've seen plenty of people in the store not wearing masks without any hubbub from the staff.

I don't recall anyone ever giving me a "seriously funny" look for not wearing a mask.  It's completely normal around here to not wear one.

Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on June 19, 2020, 08:26:39 AM
I don't wear a mask unless absolutely necessary

Same here.  If a store requires it, then I'll comply.  Otherwise I don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 09:49:58 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 09:39:18 AM
Quote from: formulanone on June 18, 2020, 09:43:47 PM
I don't even hear excuses. I guess people just stopped caring for others

That's such a crock.  When the swine flu was going around, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they walked around without masks on.  But now suddenly, because there's something going around that's worse than the swine flu, you feel justified in claiming that.  Not wearing a mask doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's necessary.

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 18, 2020, 11:00:06 PM
In my local area, mask wearing is only a recommendation, and it is one that is followed by half of the population at best. 

Indeed.  As I've already mentioned up-thread, I've even had a restaurant waitress without a mask serve my wife and me on a date.  Day before yesterday, I noticed that none of the gas station convenience store attendants were wearing masks when my family took a walk over there to buy snacks.  Around here, mask wearing has never been ubiquitous.

Quote from: webny99 on June 18, 2020, 11:25:47 PM
Around here, you get seriously funny looks for not wearing a mask in indoor public places. Everyone requires it: grocery stores, convenience stores, banks, restaurants (while not eating), clothing stores now that they've reopened, etc.

I've only been to one business that required a mask, and that was a store that has seriously crowded aisles and shoppers in very close proximity.  If ever there were store that should require them, that store is the one.

So far, I've worn a mask a total of three times, and the other two times were at a grocery store that has a sign on the door saying to "please" wear masks.  But I don't think it's actually required, and I've seen plenty of people in the store not wearing masks without any hubbub from the staff.

I don't recall anyone ever giving me a "seriously funny" look for not wearing a mask.  It's completely normal around here to not wear one.

Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on June 19, 2020, 08:26:39 AM
I don't wear a mask unless absolutely necessary

Same here.  If a store requires it, then I'll comply.  Otherwise I don't.


It's necessary to help stop the spread of the disease.  If you don't comply in situations where spread is more easilly occurred, yet is not required, you're selfish.  Period.

You care more about your comfort than the fact that you may be spreading a deadly disease.  That is the definition of selfish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 10:00:39 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 09:49:58 AM
Period.

Oh.  I was going to disagree.  But then I saw you typed "Period".  That means any position I take is invalid.  And you're right and I'm wrong.

OK, snark aside...

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 09:49:58 AM
It's necessary to help stop the spread of the disease. 

1.  I think the benefit of wearing masks in controlling the spread of the disease is overrated.

2.  What you said is true of every communicable respiratory illness, such as influenza.  Why is it selfish to not wear a mask during one outbreak but not selfish during a different outbreak?  You've drawn a line and decided that everyone who draws the line in a different spot than you is a bad person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 10:54:04 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 09:39:18 AM
That's such a crock.  When the swine flu was going around, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they walked around without masks on.  But now suddenly, because there's something going around that's worse than the swine flu, you feel justified in claiming that.  Not wearing a mask doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's necessary.
Just touching a hot topic...
When slavery was going around in 1800, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they owned slaves.  But in 1860s suddenly, because there's something going around, people feel justified in claiming that.  Owning a slave in 1800 doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's an issue. Fast forward to 2020 - well, it was a shame even in 1800!

I bet masks for even minor cold and in flu season would become the norm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 19, 2020, 11:03:55 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 10:54:04 AM
I bet masks for even minor cold and in flu season would become the norm.

In some other countries, wearing masks all the time or during certain seasons is the norm. We may see that happen here and other countries as well, since the stigma of wearing masks in public is gone. No longer does it represent the look of a bank robber!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
I've been back at the office for six weeks now.  I haven't seen a single person here–management, co-workers, field techs, applicants, delivery drivers–wear a face mask in the building.

I suppose that means that every single one of us has stopped caring for others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on June 19, 2020, 11:13:21 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
I've been back at the office for six weeks now.  I haven't seen a single person here–management, co-workers, field techs, applicants, delivery drivers–wear a face mask in the building.

I suppose that means that every single one of us has stopped caring for others.

No, it just means that as a business, you just want to get this crap over with and move on to make a living.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:13:49 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 09:39:18 AM
I don't recall anyone ever giving me a "seriously funny" look for not wearing a mask.  It's completely normal around here to not wear one.

I find it truly fascinating that I could drive halfway across the country and there would be a totally different attitude towards the virus, with mask wearing being a microcosm of that. It almost starts to feel like the US is functioning as 50 individual countries right now.

And yet, with travel being restricted, I can't just go around as I please and see for myself what it's like on the ground in other states. It's all left up to the imagination except what you see on the news, learn from friends and family, or learn on a forum like this one.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
I haven't seen a single person here–management, co-workers, field techs, applicants, delivery drivers–wear a face mask in the building.

Where I work we are able to social distance pretty effectively, so there's not much - but still some - mask wearing by employees. Also, some employees are still working from home, primarily those that are elderly or otherwise high-risk. However, delivery drivers absolutely wear masks. Customers would expect to, as well, and most do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 10:00:39 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 09:49:58 AM
Period.

Oh.  I was going to disagree.  But then I saw you typed "Period".  That means any position I take is invalid.  And you're right and I'm wrong.

OK, snark aside...

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 09:49:58 AM
It's necessary to help stop the spread of the disease. 

1.  I think the benefit of wearing masks in controlling the spread of the disease is overrated.

2.  What you said is true of every communicable respiratory illness, such as influenza.  Why is it selfish to not wear a mask during one outbreak but not selfish during a different outbreak?  You've drawn a line and decided that everyone who draws the line in a different spot than you is a bad person.


1. You're wrong.  I can't provide links where experts say that, but you will ignore them because you want an excuse to be selfish.

2. This is deadlier.  And a significant number of experts didn't call for it then.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
I've been back at the office for six weeks now.  I haven't seen a single person here–management, co-workers, field techs, applicants, delivery drivers–wear a face mask in the building.

I suppose that means that every single one of us has stopped caring for others.

If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:16:32 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on June 19, 2020, 11:13:21 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
I've been back at the office for six weeks now.  I haven't seen a single person here–management, co-workers, field techs, applicants, delivery drivers–wear a face mask in the building.

I suppose that means that every single one of us has stopped caring for others.

No, it just means that as a business, you just want to get this crap over with and move on to make a living.


"Getting this crap over with" isn't going to happen any faster or slower by wearing a mask.  And you can still make a living and wear a mask at work.  It isn't mutually exclusive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:16:45 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:13:49 AM
And yet, with travel being restricted, I can't just go around as I please and see for myself what it's like on the ground in other states. It's all left up to the imagination except what you see on the news, learn from friends and family, or learn on a forum like this one.

What do you mean, travel is restricted?  My good friends just got back from a family vacation to Wyoming.  My sister and her husband have been down at least once from Iowa to visit.  Not everything's necessarily open, but what restrictions are keeping you from going to another state?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 19, 2020, 11:19:22 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:13:49 AM
I find it truly fascinating that I could drive halfway across the country and there would be a totally different attitude towards the virus, with mask wearing being a microcosm of that. It almost starts to feel like the US is functioning as 50 individual countries right now.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" board on Reddit, and attitudes in most of the country are pretty much the same. Someone said they live in Queens, which was the epicenter, and hardly anyone wears masks.

I have a family member who just went to the Detroit area, and they said masks are even less common there than they are here, even though Detroit was hit hard for a while. And masks aren't even common here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:29:06 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
1. You're wrong.  I can't provide links where experts say that, but you will ignore them because you want an excuse to be selfish.

2. This is deadlier.  And a significant number of experts didn't call for it then.

I didn't say that masks don't help reduce transmission.  What I said is that I think the benefit is overrated.  Transmission in the absence of symptoms is significantly lower than first assumed.  Expert recommendations for mask wearing generally include a phrase similar to "where social distancing is not possible", and the recommendations are stronger for situations in which people are likely to raise their voice–situations that are rare for me to encounter, even in a grocery store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.

Give me a break. Masks are not really needed in workplaces that aren't open to the public. There's a limited number of known people going in and out, and, where I work, we do temperature checks on the way in and you can't enter with a fever.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:16:45 AM
What do you mean, travel is restricted?  My good friends just got back from a family vacation to Wyoming.  My sister and her husband have been down at least once from Iowa to visit.  Not everything's necessarily open, but what restrictions are keeping you from going to another state?

I meant restricted more in an abstract sense, not a strictly legal sense. I haven't been going to Canada, for example, and a lot of the other travels I used to do, both day trips and longer, weekend trips, aren't happening. It's not that I can't travel, it's just that I'm not, and I think many other people are the same. This actually fits right in with the broader point that things are very different right now in different areas of the country.


Quote from: bandit957 on June 19, 2020, 11:19:22 AM
I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" board on Reddit, and attitudes in most of the country are pretty much the same. Someone said they live in Queens, which was the epicenter, and hardly anyone wears masks.

Well, of course everyone on the "Lockdown Skepticism" board is going to have similar attitudes about mask wearing. No kidding!
Quite frankly, I don't believe that hardly anyone is wearing a mask in Queens. I don't know, of course, I'm not there, but I trust my knowledge of what's happening in a less hard-hit part of the same state more than what someone says on the internet.

(And I know this is the internet too.. #irony)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:30:21 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.   

No, I work with people who make their own informed decisions about how to conduct their lives.  Their decision doesn't align with yours, but such doesn't make them bad people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:32:28 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Well, of course everyone on the "Lockdown Skepticism" board is going to have similar attitudes about mask wearing. No kidding!

I don't think that's necessarily true.  There are plenty of people who have wholeheartedly embraced wearing face masks but think the shutdowns have been a bad idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.

Give me a break. Masks are not really needed in workplaces that aren't open to the public. There's a limited number of known people going in and out, and, where I work, we do temperature checks on the way in and you can't enter with a fever.


Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever.  You should wear a mask indoors unless you are in your personal workspace.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:30:21 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.   

No, I work with people who make their own informed decisions about how to conduct their lives.  Their decision doesn't align with yours, but such doesn't make them bad people.

Right.  They want to be selfish.  Just like you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever. 

My problem with temperature checks is that, as has already been pointed out by ... hmmm, I think it was Max Rockatansky ... people's temperature can be elevated for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with the coronavirus.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
They want to be selfish.  Just like you.

So the HR director is only out for herself and doesn't care about the well-being of the employees.  Right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on June 19, 2020, 11:50:00 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.

Give me a break. Masks are not really needed in workplaces that aren't open to the public. There's a limited number of known people going in and out, and, where I work, we do temperature checks on the way in and you can't enter with a fever.


Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever.  You should wear a mask indoors unless you are in your personal workspace.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:30:21 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.   

No, I work with people who make their own informed decisions about how to conduct their lives.  Their decision doesn't align with yours, but such doesn't make them bad people.

Right.  They want to be selfish.  Just like you.

And I have a problem with people like you who assume to have all the answers, when the people who actually do this for a living don't.  For all you know, everyone in his office has already had it and has immunity already.  Not only that, a significant portion of the disposable masks that are actually out the available for purchase slough off some of their fibers, which does who knows what to your respiratory system long term.  Some people actually wear glasses at their job, which means if they can't see through fogged up lenses, they can't work.  I just read an article yesterday about "superspreaders" being responsible for over 80% of the infection growth.  There's information all over the place right now, so NO ONE knows for sure anything at the moment.  Quite frankly, all this mask outrage is pretty much how I view the TSA in general: security theatre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:58:27 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on June 19, 2020, 11:50:00 AM
Quite frankly, all this mask outrage is pretty much how I view the TSA in general: security theatre.

I'm not sure I've heard any expert not recommend wearing a mask.  But masks are primarily effective for up-close situations, which means their effectiveness in other situations is less.  Mask use is not a simple black-and-white thing.  (Which was kind of your point, but kind of not.)

As for the "rage", the only rage I've been hearing has come from one internet forum user.  Even people I personally know who have drastically different opinions on mask wearing don't exhibit "rage".  Heck, the co-worker I share office space with gets frustrated that anyone would go into a gas station without a mask on.  She knows I don't wear one, she rolls her eyes at me, but she certainly doesn't exhibit "rage".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 12:02:13 PM
California put out a mandatory mask order:

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/COVID-19/Guidance-for-Face-Coverings_06-18-2020.pdf

Really it's pretty tame all things considered and the order goes into a lot of detail to be really specific when it is/isn't needed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 19, 2020, 12:06:45 PM
Why is this really so hard to understand?

(1) The best means of preventing the spread is to not come within 6 feet of others.

(2) When that is impossible or impractical, the next best means of preventing the spread is to wear a face covering, and because it can spread asymptomatically, it is beneficial for everybody to wear face coverings.

(3) Choosing not to wear face coverings even when asymptomatic increases the chances of infecting someone else. On an individual level, the difference is small, but multiplied by hundreds of millions of contacts by millions of people every day, it becomes substantial.

(4) Temperature checks at the entry to buildings where people will be within 6 feet of each other, even if masks are required, are beneficial because (1) and yes, some negative people will fail temperature checks but that's the cost of catching people who are positive and don't know it.

(5) Denying any or all of these things isn't your opinion, it's willful disregard for scientific data for the sake of convenience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 12:08:08 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:32:28 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Well, of course everyone on the "Lockdown Skepticism" board is going to have similar attitudes about mask wearing. No kidding!
I don't think that's necessarily true.  There are plenty of people who have wholeheartedly embraced wearing face masks but think the shutdowns have been a bad idea.

Poor phrasing on my part. I should have said, of course there are going to be plenty of people that are against mask wearing on that type of board. There may be people that are for it, too, or don't have a strong opinion one way or the other, but people that are against it will certainly be prevalent. "Lockdown Skepticism" is a pretty broad brush that's going to attract anti-mask folks in addition to anti-lockdown folks.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever. 
My problem with temperature checks is that, as has already been pointed out by ... hmmm, I think it was Max Rockatansky ... people's temperature can be elevated for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with the coronavirus.

It's not perfect, by any means, but it still makes sense. You probably shouldn't be coming to work with a fever regardless of whether you have COVID or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on June 19, 2020, 12:06:45 PM
Why is this really so hard to understand?

(1) The best means of preventing the spread is to not come within 6 feet of others.

(2) When that is impossible or impractical, the next best means of preventing the spread is to wear a face covering, and because it can spread asymptomatically, it is beneficial for everybody to wear face coverings.

(3) Choosing not to wear face coverings even when asymptomatic increases the chances of infecting someone else. On an individual level, the difference is small, but multiplied by hundreds of millions of contacts by millions of people every day, it becomes substantial.

(4) Temperature checks at the entry to buildings where people will be within 6 feet of each other, even if masks are required, are beneficial because (1) and yes, some negative people will fail temperature checks but that's the cost of catching people who are positive and don't know it.

(5) Denying any or all of these things isn't your opinion, it's willful disregard for scientific data for the sake of convenience.

All of what you just said is true of any and every communicable respiratory disease.  Yet, for some reason, people are allowed the dignity of making their own informed decisions at other times but not now.  Masks, social distancing, frequent hand washing, temperature checks:  all of these things would be indisputably advantageous at all times, not just now.  But, presumably, it was OK for people to not do all those things five years ago, and it will be OK for people to not do all those things five years from now as well.  The risk of this virus is greater than that of other outbreaks, and this has caused most people to take steps they don't typically take in order to prevent spread, but the exact steps each person takes is naturally going to be unique to their own determination.

Re:  (1)  –  The six-foot rule, AIUI, was based on a decades-old study of large-droplet dispersion.  Considering that this virus can spread on much smaller droplets, it's likely that a six-foot radius is too small to keep everyone out of the zone.  I think it's much better to suggest people simply stay as far apart as reasonable, rather than giving them the false impression 70 inches is too close but 75 inches is just fine and dandy.

Re:  (5)  –  "That's the cost of..." is not scientific data.  It's your opinion.  Other than that one point, I agree that every point you made is more or less scientifically uncontestable.  That doesn't mean, however, that every person should come to the same conclusion when reviewing the scientific data and applying it to their daily life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 12:08:08 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:32:28 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Well, of course everyone on the "Lockdown Skepticism" board is going to have similar attitudes about mask wearing. No kidding!
I don't think that's necessarily true.  There are plenty of people who have wholeheartedly embraced wearing face masks but think the shutdowns have been a bad idea.

Poor phrasing on my part. I should have said, of course there are going to be plenty of people that are against mask wearing on that type of board. There may be people that are for it, too, or don't have a strong opinion one way or the other, but people that are against it will certainly be prevalent. "Lockdown Skepticism" is a pretty broad brush that's going to attract anti-mask folks in addition to anti-lockdown folks.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever. 
My problem with temperature checks is that, as has already been pointed out by ... hmmm, I think it was Max Rockatansky ... people's temperature can be elevated for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with the coronavirus.

It's not perfect, by any means, but it still makes sense. You probably shouldn't be coming to work with a fever regardless of whether you have COVID or not.

The main problem is that at least in the United States you often run into problems if you call out too much or perceived as lazy even if you are legitimately sick.  I've told my people for years not to come in if they have a fever or strong cold symptoms but they still end up doing it anyways.  They even have sick hours to back them up even.  When I ask them why they didn't take the day off they tell me that they are afraid of being written up.  It's so engrained in work place culture that calling sick is bad that even me literally telling my staff they won't get in trouble isn't enough to convince them that they won't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 12:46:52 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
The main problem is that at least in the United States you often run into problems if you call out too much or perceived as lazy even if you are legitimately sick.  I've told my people for years not to come in if they have a fever or strong cold symptoms but they still end up doing it anyways.  They even have sick hours to back them up even.  When I ask them why they didn't take the day off they tell me that they are afraid of being written up.  It's so engrained in work place culture that calling sick is bad that even me literally telling my staff they won't get in trouble isn't enough to convince them that they won't. 

Definitely true here moreso than in other countries. "Calling in sick" has a lot of negative connotations, especially on Mondays and on holiday weekends, when a lot of people would rather just come in half sick than have people assume you were partying or hung over or who knows what else. 

If anything, this pandemic has shaken that up, though, because everyone would be so mad if you had COVID and kept coming to work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 12:49:09 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
They want to be selfish.

Analogy time!

Common cold is to COVID-19  as  selfishness is to self-righteousness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 19, 2020, 12:49:35 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 12:46:52 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
The main problem is that at least in the United States you often run into problems if you call out too much or perceived as lazy even if you are legitimately sick.  I've told my people for years not to come in if they have a fever or strong cold symptoms but they still end up doing it anyways.  They even have sick hours to back them up even.  When I ask them why they didn't take the day off they tell me that they are afraid of being written up.  It's so engrained in work place culture that calling sick is bad that even me literally telling my staff they won't get in trouble isn't enough to convince them that they won't. 

Definitely true here moreso than in other countries. "Calling in sick" has a lot of negative connotations, especially on Mondays and on holiday weekends, when a lot of people would rather just come in half sick than have people assume you were partying or hung over or who knows what else. 

If anything, this pandemic has shaken that up, though, because everyone would be so mad if you had COVID and kept coming to work.

Some businesses will not pay an employee for a paid holiday if he takes sick leave the day before or the day after the holiday (or holiday weekend) unless he produces a doctor's note.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jmacswimmer on June 19, 2020, 12:53:37 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 12:46:52 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
The main problem is that at least in the United States you often run into problems if you call out too much or perceived as lazy even if you are legitimately sick.  I've told my people for years not to come in if they have a fever or strong cold symptoms but they still end up doing it anyways.  They even have sick hours to back them up even.  When I ask them why they didn't take the day off they tell me that they are afraid of being written up.  It's so engrained in work place culture that calling sick is bad that even me literally telling my staff they won't get in trouble isn't enough to convince them that they won't. 

Definitely true here moreso than in other countries. "Calling in sick" has a lot of negative connotations, especially on Mondays and on holiday weekends, when a lot of people would rather just come in half sick than have people assume you were partying or hung over or who knows what else. 

If anything, this pandemic has shaken that up, though, because everyone would be so mad if you had COVID and kept coming to work.

^^^This.  As my company prepares to start bringing us back to the office, they've been emphasizing repeatedly to stay home if you're sick, be it COVID-19 or something/anything else.  I'm hoping that the rise in telework will help change that negative mentality around "calling in sick".  Speaking as someone who's worked thru colds in the past, I know I would feel a lot less guilty if I felt sick and simply worked from home rather than using sick leave.  But of course, not every profession has the ability to telework.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 12:56:08 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 19, 2020, 12:49:35 PM
Some businesses will not pay an employee for a paid holiday if he takes sick leave the day before or the day after the holiday (or holiday weekend) unless he produces a doctor's note.

Interesting that you mention that, as my company does just that. You can, of course, still schedule the day off in advance, but no pay if you call in sick without a doctor's note.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 01:13:47 PM
The PTO issue gets even muddier when the person has kids at home.  The more dependents at home who might get sick, the thinner your PTO gets spread.  Some parents, therefore, will go to work with an illness in order to still have PTO to use when their kid is sick.

Plus, not everyone is a salaried or hourly employee.  For example, all of my company's field techs are contractors who get paid not just per job, but per point based on what work the job entailed.  If they don't run a route, then they don't get paid for that day.  Guys will keep pushing through an illness in order to finish their route, because every job they can't complete is money lost.  That mentality may have changed somewhat recently, but I can't imagine it could ever be eliminated entirely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 02:04:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.

Give me a break. Masks are not really needed in workplaces that aren't open to the public. There's a limited number of known people going in and out, and, where I work, we do temperature checks on the way in and you can't enter with a fever.

Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever.  You should wear a mask indoors unless you are in your personal workspace.
It is all about risks and it all adds up. Like driving sober and fastening seat belt - those are two complimentary measures....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 02:12:19 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 10:54:04 AM

Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 09:39:18 AM
That's such a crock.  When the swine flu was going around, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they walked around without masks on.  But now suddenly, because there's something going around that's worse than the swine flu, you feel justified in claiming that.  Not wearing a mask doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's necessary.

Just touching a hot topic...
When slavery was going around in 1800, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they owned slaves.  But in 1860s suddenly, because there's something going around, people feel justified in claiming that.  Owning a slave in 1800 doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's an issue. Fast forward to 2020 - well, it was a shame even in 1800!

I'm not entirely clear what you were getting at.  So, my reply will either reinforce your point or argue against it.  :-/

Considering that slavery in some form existed in nearly every ancient civilization we know of since the Neolithic Revolution, and that the earliest extant law code (written more than 4000 years ago) treats it as an established institution, and that it has existed in nearly every corner of the globe–well, I think it would be quite ethnocentric to claim that the world as a whole, throughout history, "didn't care" about people.  That is obviously not to say I think slavery is a good thing, but rather that there is a fundamental problem with viewing other cultures and times through the colored lens of 21st-Century America.  I guarantee that there is something about each of us that, when looked back upon 100 years from now by people who live in a different society than we, will be indicative of our heartlessness.  That doesn't make us heartless.

But I'm not entirely sure how this relates to a virus.  Slavery didn't "go around".  Accepting or rejecting slavery is not equivalent to choosing to or choosing not to take a certain preventive measure against the spread of disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 02:36:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 02:12:19 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 10:54:04 AM

Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 09:39:18 AM
That's such a crock.  When the swine flu was going around, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they walked around without masks on.  But now suddenly, because there's something going around that's worse than the swine flu, you feel justified in claiming that.  Not wearing a mask doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's necessary.

Just touching a hot topic...
When slavery was going around in 1800, I assume you didn't claim that people "stopped caring for others" because they owned slaves.  But in 1860s suddenly, because there's something going around, people feel justified in claiming that.  Owning a slave in 1800 doesn't mean someone "stopped caring for others".  It just means they don't think it's an issue. Fast forward to 2020 - well, it was a shame even in 1800!

I'm not entirely clear what you were getting at.  So, my reply will either reinforce your point or argue against it.  :-/

Considering that slavery in some form existed in nearly every ancient civilization we know of since the Neolithic Revolution, and that the earliest extant law code (written more than 4000 years ago) treats it as an established institution, and that it has existed in nearly every corner of the globe–well, I think it would be quite ethnocentric to claim that the world as a whole, throughout history, "didn't care" about people.  That is obviously not to say I think slavery is a good thing, but rather that there is a fundamental problem with viewing other cultures and times through the colored lens of 21st-Century America.  I guarantee that there is something about each of us that, when looked back upon 100 years from now by people who live in a different society than we, will be indicative of our heartlessness.  That doesn't make us heartless.

But I'm not entirely sure how this relates to a virus.  Slavery didn't "go around".  Accepting or rejecting slavery is not equivalent to choosing to or choosing not to take a certain preventive measure against the spread of disease.
Just saying that standards change. Not wearing a mask 10 years ago was the norm - and maybe unfortunate norm from today's perspective. But one need to move along and change some habits - be it owning a slave like 200 years ago, driving without seatbelt like 50 years ago  or walking around with bare face like 10 years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 02:56:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 02:36:29 PM
Just saying that standards change. Not wearing a mask 10 years ago was the norm - and maybe unfortunate norm from today's perspective. But one need to move along and change some habits - be it owning a slave like 200 years ago, driving without seatbelt like 50 years ago  or walking around with bare face like 10 years ago.

I wear a seat belt, but I don't disparage those who choose not to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 03:07:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 02:56:32 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 02:36:29 PM
Just saying that standards change. Not wearing a mask 10 years ago was the norm - and maybe unfortunate norm from today's perspective. But one need to move along and change some habits - be it owning a slave like 200 years ago, driving without seatbelt like 50 years ago  or walking around with bare face like 10 years ago.

I wear a seat belt, but I don't disparage those who choose not to.

That said, in most circumstances I would make a passenger put one on because I don't want to be responsible for what happens in an accident.  Down in Mexico it was a far different norm with something we consider as routine as wearing seat belts.  Down there isn't uncommon to see a bunch of dudes in the back of a truck, I've transported family as such numerous times.  That's an interesting example of how expectations might be one way in one place and entirely different in another.  The same thing is starting to happen with mask wearers and non mask wearers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
Yeah, I don't do this in the USA, but no problem in Mexico!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/3604/3406090339_b524e26146_k.jpg)
[photo from 2009]
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 19, 2020, 03:17:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever. 

My problem with temperature checks is that, as has already been pointed out by ... hmmm, I think it was Max Rockatansky ... people's temperature can be elevated for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with the coronavirus.

There's almost going to be nothing that is 100% perfect in detection.  But people try their dammest to discount everything.

The likelihood of someone not being sick yet have a temperature over 100 degrees is close to nill.  There may be a small percentage of the population that has a condition that causes this, and they probably already know who they are.  If not, maybe this would be a good time for them to see a doc to find out!

There's a more likelihood that someone registers a close-to-normal temp but has the virus and doesn't know it.  That's where the masks and other protections come in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 19, 2020, 03:17:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever. 

My problem with temperature checks is that, as has already been pointed out by ... hmmm, I think it was Max Rockatansky ... people's temperature can be elevated for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with the coronavirus.

There's almost going to be nothing that is 100% perfect in detection.  But people try their dammest to discount everything.

The likelihood of someone not being sick yet have a temperature over 100 degrees is close to nill.  There may be a small percentage of the population that has a condition that causes this, and they probably already know who they are.  If not, maybe this would be a good time for them to see a doc to find out!

There's a more likelihood that someone registers a close-to-normal temp but has the virus and doesn't know it.  That's where the masks and other protections come in.

We have half a dozen workers show up every day with a temperatures at 100F or higher.  We typically sit them in a cool area for 5 minutes and rescan.  In the two months we have been scanning we have only had one person rescan at over 100F.  The summer sun does play a huge factor in environments like where I live when it gets above 100F daily.  When we first got the scanners I had myself tested eight times through the day.  I even scanned over 100F myself after going for a 5 minute walk outside.  To that end the temperature scan IMO is the least effective measure we do and something that I think we could cease doing given how ineffective it has been. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 03:27:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
Yeah, I don't do this in the USA, but no problem in Mexico!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/3604/3406090339_b524e26146_k.jpg)
[photo from 2009]

The same thing on the Moped is a hoot to watch sometimes, especially when it is three or more people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 03:30:49 PM
Quote from: MikieTimT on June 19, 2020, 11:50:00 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.

Give me a break. Masks are not really needed in workplaces that aren't open to the public. There's a limited number of known people going in and out, and, where I work, we do temperature checks on the way in and you can't enter with a fever.


Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever.  You should wear a mask indoors unless you are in your personal workspace.


Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:30:21 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:15:36 AM
If they aren't masking in their personal workspace, they most certainly do not.  You seemingly work with selfish people. I guess you fit in well.   

No, I work with people who make their own informed decisions about how to conduct their lives.  Their decision doesn't align with yours, but such doesn't make them bad people.

Right.  They want to be selfish.  Just like you.

And I have a problem with people like you who assume to have all the answers, when the people who actually do this for a living don't.  For all you know, everyone in his office has already had it and has immunity already.  Not only that, a significant portion of the disposable masks that are actually out the available for purchase slough off some of their fibers, which does who knows what to your respiratory system long term.  Some people actually wear glasses at their job, which means if they can't see through fogged up lenses, they can't work.  I just read an article yesterday about "superspreaders" being responsible for over 80% of the infection growth.  There's information all over the place right now, so NO ONE knows for sure anything at the moment.  Quite frankly, all this mask outrage is pretty much how I view the TSA in general: security theatre.

I truly don't care if you have a problem with me. The opinions of the selfish don't mean much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 03:31:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 19, 2020, 03:17:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever. 

My problem with temperature checks is that, as has already been pointed out by ... hmmm, I think it was Max Rockatansky ... people's temperature can be elevated for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with the coronavirus.

There's almost going to be nothing that is 100% perfect in detection.  But people try their dammest to discount everything.

The likelihood of someone not being sick yet have a temperature over 100 degrees is close to nill.  There may be a small percentage of the population that has a condition that causes this, and they probably already know who they are.  If not, maybe this would be a good time for them to see a doc to find out!

There's a more likelihood that someone registers a close-to-normal temp but has the virus and doesn't know it.  That's where the masks and other protections come in.

We have half a dozen workers show up every day with a temperatures at 100F or higher.  We typically sit them in a cool area for 5 minutes and rescan.  In the two months we have been scanning we have only had one person rescan at over 100F.  The summer sun does play a huge factor in environments like where I live when it gets above 100F daily.  When we first got the scanners I had myself tested eight times through the day.  I even scanned over 100F myself after going for a 5 minute walk outside.  To that end the temperature scan IMO is the least effective measure we do and something that I think we could cease doing given how ineffective it has been.
May end up as a regional or lifestyle thing. I suspect things may be interesting in Phoenix; but over here weather is more moderate, and at my workplace most people would show up at the gate in a car with AC running (subject to weather, of course) and don't really have a  chance to overheat.
I will ask screening  folks if they do see false positives way to often.
Separate recommendation is to self-screen at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jmacswimmer on June 19, 2020, 03:38:09 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 03:31:29 PM
May end up as a regional or lifestyle thing. I suspect things may be interesting in Phoenix; but over here weather is more moderate, and at my workplace most people would show up at the gate in a car with AC running (subject to weather, of course) and don't really have a  chance to overheat.
I will ask screening  folks if they do see false positives way to often.
Separate recommendation is to self-screen at home.
That is exactly what my company will be doing once we return (which I agree with) - they figured it made more sense that way versus showing up, having to congregate waiting to use the same thermometer, and possibly getting false positives should it be an especially hot day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:41:02 PM
For my friends, who had their temperatures taken at a roadside checkpoint several weeks ago, I wonder what would have happened if their A/C hadn't been working and they'd had elevated temperatures for that reason.  Would they have been turned back?

Quote from: kphoger on May 01, 2020, 12:09:30 PM
For anyone interested in what it's like to travel within Mexico right now...

Within the 275-mile drive south from customs to their house, which did not cross any state lines, here's what our friends encountered:

– questioned four times
– temperatures taken twice with IR thermomenters
– tires sprayed with bleach twice (wtf?), once at a tollbooth and once at a roadside checkpoint




This is what I meant.  Imagine being sent to another city for work and booking a flight on Frontier Airlines.  You walk across the hot parking lot, hauling luggage with you, huff it into the airport, hurry through the building, and then register a fever.  Sorry, can't board the plane!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
Do you think that the NBA's plan for resumming will work?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 03:53:12 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
Do you think that the NBA's plan for resumming will work?

Wrong thread?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 19, 2020, 03:53:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
Do you think that the NBA's plan for resumming will work?
Shouldn't that be discussed in the sports thread, not here?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:56:51 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
Do you think that the NBA's plan for resumming will work?

I'm surprised to hear that any school sports have resumed already, but I can see a professional outfit having the ability to make it work safely.  Are these games planned to have fans in attendance?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 03:58:30 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 03:31:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 03:23:58 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 19, 2020, 03:17:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 11:36:32 AM
Temperature checks are worthless.  You can spread it without a fever. 

My problem with temperature checks is that, as has already been pointed out by ... hmmm, I think it was Max Rockatansky ... people's temperature can be elevated for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with the coronavirus.

There's almost going to be nothing that is 100% perfect in detection.  But people try their dammest to discount everything.

The likelihood of someone not being sick yet have a temperature over 100 degrees is close to nill.  There may be a small percentage of the population that has a condition that causes this, and they probably already know who they are.  If not, maybe this would be a good time for them to see a doc to find out!

There's a more likelihood that someone registers a close-to-normal temp but has the virus and doesn't know it.  That's where the masks and other protections come in.

We have half a dozen workers show up every day with a temperatures at 100F or higher.  We typically sit them in a cool area for 5 minutes and rescan.  In the two months we have been scanning we have only had one person rescan at over 100F.  The summer sun does play a huge factor in environments like where I live when it gets above 100F daily.  When we first got the scanners I had myself tested eight times through the day.  I even scanned over 100F myself after going for a 5 minute walk outside.  To that end the temperature scan IMO is the least effective measure we do and something that I think we could cease doing given how ineffective it has been.
May end up as a regional or lifestyle thing. I suspect things may be interesting in Phoenix; but over here weather is more moderate, and at my workplace most people would show up at the gate in a car with AC running (subject to weather, of course) and don't really have a  chance to overheat.
I will ask screening  folks if they do see false positives way to often.
Separate recommendation is to self-screen at home.

One of my buildings is capable of doing the car drive by scan which seems to be going fairly efficiently.  But then again they haven't turned away a single person despite there being numerous people going home sick in the middle of the day.  Really the true test I think comes back if you don't feel good then stay home.  We dump so much payroll into this screening thing when it's easier just to keep assuring people it's okay to call out sick or outright asking people if they okay if they look unwell.  With all these hundreds of people who get scanned every week it's hard to not see the temperature scan as much more than a placebo measure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 19, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
Yeah, I don't do this in the USA, but no problem in Mexico!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/3604/3406090339_b524e26146_k.jpg)
[photo from 2009]

Either the laws of physics don't exist in Mexico, or you aren't allowed go above 10 mph?

Speaking as a parent, I sincerely hope you don't plan on carrying children in your lap in a moving vehicle anymore. That's just reckless contempt for life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 05:21:50 PM
Quote from: formulanone on June 19, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
Yeah, I don't do this in the USA, but no problem in Mexico!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/3604/3406090339_b524e26146_k.jpg)
[photo from 2009]

Either the laws of physics don't exist in Mexico, or you aren't allowed go above 10 mph?

Speaking as a parent, I sincerely hope you don't plan on carrying children in your lap in a moving vehicle anymore. That's just reckless contempt for life.

But it is a common part of life down there in Mexico.  I'm not trying to justify it or say the practice is bad, but that's a pretty tame example of what is normal down there.  It kind of reminds me of how driving used to be during the 1980s when things like seat belt use wasn't universally accepted as a truism.  Back in that era even in the United States most would look twice if kids were in the back seat with no belt on or sitting on a parents lap. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 19, 2020, 05:30:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 05:21:50 PM
Quote from: formulanone on June 19, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
Yeah, I don't do this in the USA, but no problem in Mexico!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/3604/3406090339_b524e26146_k.jpg)
[photo from 2009]

Either the laws of physics don't exist in Mexico, or you aren't allowed go above 10 mph?

Speaking as a parent, I sincerely hope you don't plan on carrying children in your lap in a moving vehicle anymore. That's just reckless contempt for life.

But it is a common part of life down there in Mexico.  I'm not trying to justify it or say the practice is bad, but that's a pretty tame example of what is normal down there.  It kind of reminds me of how driving used to be during the 1980s when things like seat belt use wasn't universally accepted as a truism.  Back in that era even in the United States most would look twice if kids were in the back seat with no belt on or sitting on a parents lap. 

It was the norm for decades, but not since most of us here received our drivers' licenses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 19, 2020, 05:31:17 PM
^^^^^

Heh. Remember when it was normal for a group, like a Cub Scout group or similar, to be all in one station wagon with one kid in the front seat, two or three in the back seat, and four or five kids in what my friends and I called the "back-back" (that is, the "trunk" or cargo area where there were no seats, let alone seat belts)? Certainly it wasn't unusual in the 1970s and 1980s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 05:34:17 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 19, 2020, 05:31:17 PM
^^^^^

Heh. Remember when it was normal for a group, like a Cub Scout group or similar, to be all in one station wagon with one kid in the front seat, two or three in the back seat, and four or five kids in what my friends and I called the "back-back" (that is, the "trunk" or cargo area where there were no seats, let alone seat belts)? Certainly it wasn't unusual in the 1970s and 1980s.

Hell my siblings and I fought over who got to sit atop the rear wheel in my Dad's truck bed because it was extra "fun"  with all the bouncing.  Nobody batted an eye at it back in those days and still don't in a lot of other countries.  I don't think a lot of people really get exposed to the fact that other parts of the world often have totally different sensibilities and taboos than the United States. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 05:39:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:56:51 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 03:42:19 PM
Do you think that the NBA's plan for resumming will work?

I'm surprised to hear that any school sports have resumed already, but I can see a professional outfit having the ability to make it work safely.  Are these games planned to have fans in attendance?
No
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.





Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 05:21:50 PM
Quote from: formulanone on June 19, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Speaking as a parent, I sincerely hope you don't plan on carrying children in your lap in a moving vehicle anymore. That's just reckless contempt for life.

... that's a pretty tame example ...

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well. There is good reason he shouldn't have his kids on his lap anymore: after all, this was 11 years ago; he probably shouldn't be holding teenagers on his lap. But "reckless contempt" is an overstatement, at least with regards to babies and younger kids like the one in the photo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 19, 2020, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

How does one person's declaration supersede a legislatively-approved ordinance?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 19, 2020, 06:35:36 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 19, 2020, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

How does one person's declaration supersede a legislatively-approved ordinance?

Rank?  The governor is above (or thinks he's above) local ordinances ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 19, 2020, 06:38:38 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 19, 2020, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PMFayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them).

How does one person's declaration supersede a legislatively-approved ordinance?

It can if the Arkansas emergency management statute gives the governor power to make orders that override ordinances that local agencies pass under their home-rule powers.  In Kansas, any order the governor makes within the context of a declared emergency can be designed to override orders made by counties under their public-health powers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 07:28:49 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.





Given that the coronavirus isn't going away any time soon, I wonder if this thread will become the most posted on thread on this forum first or get locked first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 19, 2020, 07:30:09 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 19, 2020, 05:31:17 PM
^^^^^

Heh. Remember when it was normal for a group, like a Cub Scout group or similar, to be all in one station wagon with one kid in the front seat, two or three in the back seat, and four or five kids in what my friends and I called the "back-back" (that is, the "trunk" or cargo area where there were no seats, let alone seat belts)? Certainly it wasn't unusual in the 1970s and 1980s.
My old Chevy Celebrity was officially an 8-seat car: 3 on undivided front seat, 3 on the back, and 2 in the trunk - a lid opened on the floor to put legs down; and I believe back of the rear seat was double-sided. Possibly there were even some belts there. Never had a chance to load more than 3 people total in that car, though...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 19, 2020, 07:31:27 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 07:28:49 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.





Given that the coronavirus isn't going away any time soon, I wonder if this thread will become the most posted on thread on this forum first or get locked first.

I've only been checking it every 3-4 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 07:32:12 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 19, 2020, 07:31:27 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 07:28:49 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.





Given that the coronavirus isn't going away any time soon, I wonder if this thread will become the most posted on thread on this forum first or get locked first.

I've only been checking it every 3-4 days.
I check it frequently but I don't read every post closely, as there are just so many posts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 07:49:13 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 19, 2020, 07:28:49 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.
Given that the coronavirus isn't going away any time soon, I wonder if this thread will become the most posted on thread on this forum first or get locked first.

This thread is already longer than anything in General Highway Talk. "Crash Prone Modern Roundabouts" is the only one that even comes close.

Sadly, we no longer have the quick reference to view the longest threads, but I believe there are only 10 longer than this one: 8 in Traffic Control, plus the general New York and Virginia threads. The longest of those has 5618 posts at this moment, so my bet is this will easily surpass that.

(General New York thread is also currently longer than this one, edited to reflect.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 08:59:45 PM
Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 20, 2020, 12:08:34 AM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on June 19, 2020, 08:26:39 AM
I don't wear a mask unless absolutely necessary (i.e. if I enter a shop to buy something). Outside I prefer to keep distance with everyone and besides that I wear glasses and I don't want them to become foggy.

Same here. I'm planning on going to theme parks in a few weeks and they'll be requiring a mask, but it won't fog up my glasses as I don't wear glasses in theme parks (and haven't since I got glasses)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 20, 2020, 12:10:25 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 08:59:45 PM
Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20
The graph isn't wrong, but different states peaked at different times, like New York peaked earlier than Arizona.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 20, 2020, 12:14:20 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 20, 2020, 12:10:25 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 08:59:45 PM
Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20
The graph isn't wrong, but different states peaked at different times, like New York peaked earlier than Arizona.
Also, more asymptomatic cases are being found via no-reason testing. In early April, one had to be showing symptoms to even be considered for a test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 20, 2020, 02:23:47 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.

Five months since the first U.S. case was identified in my county, and we've only just reopened for limited-capacity retail. Time really crawls.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 20, 2020, 07:28:28 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 20, 2020, 12:14:20 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 20, 2020, 12:10:25 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 19, 2020, 08:59:45 PM
Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20
The graph isn't wrong, but different states peaked at different times, like New York peaked earlier than Arizona.
Also, more asymptomatic cases are being found via no-reason testing. In early April, one had to be showing symptoms to even be considered for a test.

Europe does the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 20, 2020, 10:40:58 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 19, 2020, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

How does one person's declaration supersede a legislatively-approved ordinance?

It trumps the....oh, never mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 20, 2020, 12:20:42 PM
Quote from: Bruce on June 20, 2020, 02:23:47 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.

Five months since the first U.S. case was identified in my county, and we've only just reopened for limited-capacity retail. Time really crawls.

Seems to me like Washington has been a lot stricter than other states, but I guess people are probably more accepting of the restrictions since you got hit so early, plus being on the West Coast with more ties to China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 20, 2020, 03:10:06 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 20, 2020, 12:20:42 PM
Quote from: Bruce on June 20, 2020, 02:23:47 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 19, 2020, 05:55:39 PM
As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.

Five months since the first U.S. case was identified in my county, and we've only just reopened for limited-capacity retail. Time really crawls.

Seems to me like Washington has been a lot stricter than other states, but I guess people are probably more accepting of the restrictions since you got hit so early, plus being on the West Coast with more ties to China.
Are the cases still increasing in Washington?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 3467 on June 20, 2020, 03:20:19 PM
Yes Washington is getting a second wave since they had a first one. covidexitstrategy.org is a really good complication of data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on June 20, 2020, 03:50:09 PM
South Carolina is getting our major wave now. We have over 11,000 active cases right now...

https://carolinasportsthoughts.wordpress.com/2020/06/20/active-coronavirus-cases-in-south-carolina-6-20/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 20, 2020, 04:20:52 PM
The increase in Washington lately is centered on some agricultural operations in Yakima County.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 20, 2020, 05:31:02 PM
Quote from: 3467 on June 20, 2020, 03:20:19 PM
Yes Washington is getting a second wave since they had a first one. covidexitstrategy.org is a really good complication of data.

Not a second wave. The numbers are in Central WA, which is only now experiencing its first wave. The Puget Sound region is mostly flat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 20, 2020, 07:52:22 PM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 20, 2020, 10:40:58 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 19, 2020, 06:27:10 PM
Quote from: US71 on June 18, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

How does one person's declaration supersede a legislatively-approved ordinance?

It trumps the....oh, never mind.

See, I don't get the thinking that a local legislative body can pass a local ordinance (law) but a state executive can come in and unilaterally say, "wait a minute, that goes too far, I decree that you roll it back." Seems to me that the local folks would know better and can or should be able to enact policies and regulations that fit their communities. And yes, I'm aware that there are some state laws that specify that local ordinances cannot be more stringent than state laws, but executive orders aren't laws.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 20, 2020, 10:45:05 PM
Well, this is bad.  If true, I don't see how a vaccine could be effective enough to bring us back to normal if immunity wouldn't last more than 2-3 months.  It's not like we can give it to every person on the planet at the same time.  I wonder how long this was suspected?  It would certainly explain why the experts and politicians are increasingly talking like the pandemic response measures are permanent.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-only-last-months-weaker-in-asymptomatic-cases-2020-6
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 20, 2020, 11:19:44 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 20, 2020, 10:45:05 PM
Well, this is bad.  If true, I don't see how a vaccine could be effective enough to bring us back to normal if immunity wouldn't last more than 2-3 months.  It's not like we can give it to every person on the planet at the same time.  I wonder how long this was suspected?  It would certainly explain why the experts and politicians are increasingly talking like the pandemic response measures are permanent.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-only-last-months-weaker-in-asymptomatic-cases-2020-6

Don't antibodies for the majority of viral infections tend to disappear relatively quickly within a few months anyways? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 21, 2020, 10:42:15 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 20, 2020, 11:19:44 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 20, 2020, 10:45:05 PM
Well, this is bad.  If true, I don't see how a vaccine could be effective enough to bring us back to normal if immunity wouldn't last more than 2-3 months.  It's not like we can give it to every person on the planet at the same time.  I wonder how long this was suspected?  It would certainly explain why the experts and politicians are increasingly talking like the pandemic response measures are permanent.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-only-last-months-weaker-in-asymptomatic-cases-2020-6

Don't antibodies for the majority of viral infections tend to disappear relatively quickly within a few months anyways?
Depends. Measles, smallpox, and chickenpox last for life, and antibodies can be detected decades later.
However, antibodies concentration isnot the only thing to consider. Even if antibody concentration is low, they can come up pretty fast on the second infection. In fact, antibody production in living organisms uses second infection to spur production - something that is difficult to do in humans for ethical reasons. It is possible that even IgM is below the detection limit, a second exposure to virus will cause disease - but much weaker than the first one. This is what was observed by SARS study in ferrets, actually.
However, this means that someone who got sick may still be infected and spread infection while travelling, hence no immune passports.
(https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/courses-images/wp-content/uploads/sites/1094/2016/11/03172721/OSC_Microbio_18_04_PriSec.jpg)
UPD to clarify - this is generic graph, not covid specific.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 09:29:22 AM
We are nowhere near herd immunity.

(https://images.newscientist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/17143834/200620_n_seroprevalanceweb.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 22, 2020, 09:33:43 AM
Does anyone know why Mississippi is decreasing while the rest of the South is increasing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 09:50:40 AM
Another article popped up regarding "potential"  COVID-19 potentially been in California during late 2019:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mysterious-deaths-infants-children-raise-140052428.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 22, 2020, 10:35:42 AM
There has been a spike in cases in many states (Arizona, Florida, Texas, California) but there hasn't been a spike in deaths.  I realize that deaths lag the new cases but Arizona has been seeing spikes in cases since mid-May.  Some people infected early on in the spike should have already died of the virus. Also, the percent positive tests in Arizona have been increasing indicating that the spike in new cases isn't just due to more testing being done (and the rise in positive tests indicate there really is an outbreak taking place).  So where are the increased deaths in the states that are seeing a spike in cases?  Is it possible the virus has mutated to a  less deadly strain or that the people who are getting infected have a lower viral load due to the precautions being taken (ie. social distancing, face masks, etc.).  I've heard there has been increases in hospitalizations in some states but maybe now more people are recovering.

(https://i.imgur.com/4qnRJxm.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&region=US&doublingtime=3&location=Arizona&location=California&location=Florida&location=Texas



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 10:49:18 AM
In those states in the South and Southwest that have had more cases lately, it's mostly younger people, who are the least likely to die from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 22, 2020, 10:57:06 AM
Deaths have a multiple-week lag after people are tested positive.  Since this latest wave is still relatively young, these ill people are still being treated. There's also a bit more knowledge about the virus.  Hospitals can treat people differently than they did back in March and April.

Also, and more importantly (as to what Bandit said): a lot of people getting sick now are those in their 20's and 30's as they are going out to bars and other places where they tend to lose focus on social distancing, don't have the ability to wear masks during their gatherings, etc. However, this group tends to be healthier overall, and when they do become ill they can fight off the virus more successfully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 11:06:24 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 22, 2020, 10:35:42 AM
There has been a spike in cases in many states (Arizona, Florida, Texas, California) but there hasn't been a spike in deaths.  I realize that deaths lag the new cases but Arizona has been seeing spikes in cases since mid-May.  Some people infected early on in the spike should have already died of the virus. Also, the percent positive tests in Arizona have been increasing indicating that the spike in new cases isn't just due to more testing being done (and the rise in positive tests indicate there really is an outbreak taking place).  So where are the increased deaths in the states that are seeing a spike in cases?  Is it possible the virus has mutated to a  less deadly strain or that the people who are getting infected have a lower viral load due to the precautions being taken (ie. social distancing, face masks, etc.).  I've heard there has been increases in hospitalizations in some states but maybe now more people are recovering.

(https://i.imgur.com/4qnRJxm.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&region=US&doublingtime=3&location=Arizona&location=California&location=Florida&location=Texas

Most current estimates put the mortality rate of COVID-19 are 0.3%.  It certainly is nowhere near as deadly as was feared early on in the pandemic.  As stated numerous times upthread that's about three times as deadly as the typical flu.  What you're seeing with large number of test samples coming back is that mortality rate beginning to line up more with how deadly the virus actual is rather than a sample size of people showing only severe symptoms. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 22, 2020, 11:58:53 AM
^That makes sense.  So basically early in the pandemic the sample size was heavily weighted to the most vulnerable populations (ie. elderly and people with underlying conditions) as these were the people most likely to be tested and suffering severe symptoms.  Now that nearly anyone can get tested, it's sampling younger healthier individuals who are much more likely to survive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 12:11:42 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 22, 2020, 11:58:53 AM
^That makes sense.  So basically early in the pandemic the sample size was heavily weighted to the most vulnerable populations (ie. elderly and people with underlying conditions) as these were the people most likely to be tested and suffering severe symptoms.  Now that nearly anyone can get tested, it's sampling younger healthier individuals who are much more likely to survive.

Kind of, but don't assume everyone who is elderly is also in poor health of has a compromised immune system...it is just more common in the age demographic..  Don't forget, nobody really knew for certain how deadly COVID-19 was early in the year.  It didn't help that certain places in Europe were reporting things like mass graves and having to pick who had better odds of living.  Those kinds of stories doubled up with a whole hell of a lot of unknowns tends to fear/panic inducing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 22, 2020, 12:47:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 05:21:50 PM

Quote from: formulanone on June 19, 2020, 05:08:48 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
Yeah, I don't do this in the USA, but no problem in Mexico!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/3604/3406090339_b524e26146_k.jpg)
[photo from 2009]


Either the laws of physics don't exist in Mexico, or you aren't allowed go above 10 mph?

Speaking as a parent, I sincerely hope you don't plan on carrying children in your lap in a moving vehicle anymore. That's just reckless contempt for life.

But it is a common part of life down there in Mexico.  I'm not trying to justify it or say the practice is bad, but that's a pretty tame example of what is normal down there.  It kind of reminds me of how driving used to be during the 1980s when things like seat belt use wasn't universally accepted as a truism.  Back in that era even in the United States most would look twice if kids were in the back seat with no belt on or sitting on a parents lap. 

For one thing, traffic generally moves at around 10-20 mph in that town.  But, besides that...  different culture, different norms.  I've sat on the side of a pickup truck bed while being driven down a state highway in Mexico, completely normal there.  When I was in high school, during a Spanish class trip to Mexico, I once sat in a plastic lawn chair in the middle of a conversion van because there weren't enough seats for our whole group.  I believe that, on the day the picture above was taken, there weren't enough seats in the vehicle for all of us, so I had my son sit with me.

Heck, in Mexico, it's common to see on-duty police officers standing up in the back of pickup trucks.

And, anyway, there have been times that my wife breast-fed a baby in the passenger seat while I was driving down the highway here in the US–rather than finding somewhere to park and wasting 15 minutes of drive time.  I also remember once, while my wife was driving south through northern Iowa while one of our sons was potty-training, I crawled into the back of the minivan, got the potty chair out, and had my son use it while we were going 75 mph down the Interstate.  Legal? no.  Safe during a crash? no.  Worth the very slight risk risk, yes.  In my opinion, what's pictured is really safer than putting a kid in a seat on the back of a bicycle and cycling down city streets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 22, 2020, 12:51:20 PM
In other news...

My wife and all three of my sons have now finally had haircuts!

She needed a haircut back in March, but the earliest appointment she could get was the day we left town to go on our most recent Mexico trip.  So she scheduled for the end of March instead.  Then, when we got back, state orders had us home-quarantine for two weeks (all travelers coming in from out of the country), so she had to reschedule for April.  Then further state orders shut down hair salons, so she canceled her appointment altogether.  When salons reopened, she was in the back of line behind all the customers who hadn't canceled, so Thursday was the first opportunity she's had to get a haircut–three months after she needed it.

I took the three boys to the barber on Saturday.

Then we went to church yesterday, for the first time since early March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 04:59:32 PM
So in March and April, the Northeast and Midwest get hit hard when it's cold and gloomy and everyone wants to be inside. Meanwhile the weather in the South and Southwest is pleasant, and they largely get through without a large outbreak.

Now in June, Texas, Arizona and Florida are getting hit hard when it's hot as heck and everyone wants to be inside. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest finally get some beautiful weather, people want to be outside, and they've largely gotten things under control.

There's just no way that's mere coincidence. There's a strong, direct, relationship between time spent indoors and COVID cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 05:04:43 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 04:59:32 PM
So in March and April, the Northeast and Midwest get hit hard when it's cold and gloomy and everyone wants to be inside. Meanwhile the weather in the South and Southwest is pleasant, and they largely get through unscathed.

Now in June, Texas, Arizona and Florida are getting hit hard when it's hot as heck and everyone wants to be inside. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest finally get some beautiful weather, people want to be outside, and they've largely gotten things well under control.

There's just no way that's a coincidence.


I agree.  Especially since it doesn't look like there has been much surge due to protests regardless of the location.

Indoor, sustained contact is the problem.  Bars, restaurants, etc. where social distancing isn't occuring seems to be where we are seeing a lot of the new cases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 22, 2020, 05:37:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.

I've often wondered if we wouldn't have been better off simply requiring masks where needed indoors first, instead of shutting everything down and keeping everyone inside all the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:40:01 PM
An Italian doctor said that the Coronavirus might go away on it's own. IDK but I hope he's right.

https://whdh.com/news/coronavirus-is-getting-weaker-could-disappear-without-vaccine-doctor-suggests/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 05:40:43 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 22, 2020, 05:37:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.

I've often wondered if we wouldn't have been better off simply requiring masks where needed indoors first, instead of shutting everything down and keeping everyone inside all the time.

Probably, but again I refer to all those unknowns with the Virus and the scary scenes out of Europe driving a lot of local health policies here.  I would think the mask requirement would be the go-to in a future pandemic rather than it being a point of resistance like it was with COVID-19. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 05:40:43 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 22, 2020, 05:37:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.

I've often wondered if we wouldn't have been better off simply requiring masks where needed indoors first, instead of shutting everything down and keeping everyone inside all the time.

Probably, but again I refer to all those unknowns with the Virus and the scary scenes out of Europe driving a lot of local health policies here.  I would think the mask requirement would be the go-to in a future pandemic rather than it being a point of resistance like it was with COVID-19.
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:43:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

There's plenty of reasons why people just aren't crazy about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:44:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:43:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

There's plenty of reasons why people just aren't crazy about it.
Like what?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Flint1979 on June 22, 2020, 05:44:22 PM
I wish we were still under a stay-at-home order now we have all the idiots out driving again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:44:58 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:44:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:43:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

There's plenty of reasons why people just aren't crazy about it.
Like what?

It makes it very, very hard to breathe. It also interferes with social interaction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:48:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:44:58 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:44:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:43:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

There's plenty of reasons why people just aren't crazy about it.
Like what?

It makes it very, very hard to breathe. It also interferes with social interaction.
I mean if you can't breathe well with one on than don't wear it but I can breathe fine with a mask on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 22, 2020, 05:52:55 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:44:58 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:44:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:43:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

There's plenty of reasons why people just aren't crazy about it.
Like what?

It makes it very, very hard to breathe. It also interferes with social interaction.

Those are features, not bugs.

Could it possibly be that the areas that got hit hardest first - NYC, Detroit, Seattle - learned their lessons and are applying them so the cases are going down?  And those places where it is increasing have not yet learned?  That's not a coincidence of north/south or hot/cold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 1995hoo on June 22, 2020, 05:58:16 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:48:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:44:58 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:44:06 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:43:48 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

There's plenty of reasons why people just aren't crazy about it.
Like what?

It makes it very, very hard to breathe. It also interferes with social interaction.
I mean if you can't breathe well with one on than don't wear it but I can breathe fine with a mask on.

Or try a different type of mask/face covering. I've got a number of different ones and they all have pluses and minuses, especially for someone who (like me) wears glasses. I don't find it hard to breathe through any of them except for the softer of the two N95 masks we have, and I think the reason for that one bothering me is that it's a little small for my face and fits too snugly (so we washed it and my wife sometimes uses it instead because the other N95 mask we have is too big for her).

My wife ordered two face coverings that are sort of like a "neck-up" for skiing except much lighter weight; you can wear it around your neck and then pull it up over your face only when you need to cover your face. Makes it easier compared to taking a mask on and off for driving, for example, and I was surprised to find on Saturday when I wore it for the first time that it wasn't uncomfortably warm.

In general, I've found the more snugly the part that bridges your nose fits, the less eyeglass fogging there is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 07:59:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 05:40:43 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 22, 2020, 05:37:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.

I've often wondered if we wouldn't have been better off simply requiring masks where needed indoors first, instead of shutting everything down and keeping everyone inside all the time.

Probably, but again I refer to all those unknowns with the Virus and the scary scenes out of Europe driving a lot of local health policies here.  I would think the mask requirement would be the go-to in a future pandemic rather than it being a point of resistance like it was with COVID-19.
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

It's not. It's a ridiculous argument.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on June 22, 2020, 08:05:12 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 07:59:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 05:40:43 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 22, 2020, 05:37:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.

I've often wondered if we wouldn't have been better off simply requiring masks where needed indoors first, instead of shutting everything down and keeping everyone inside all the time.

Probably, but again I refer to all those unknowns with the Virus and the scary scenes out of Europe driving a lot of local health policies here.  I would think the mask requirement would be the go-to in a future pandemic rather than it being a point of resistance like it was with COVID-19.
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

It's not. It's a ridiculous argument.

An argument that a lot of folks on free republic.com are fond of making.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 08:38:29 PM
I have a really hard time with making things mandatory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 22, 2020, 08:41:27 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 08:38:29 PM
I have a really hard time with making things mandatory.
It's mandatory the people can't: kill you, assault you, rob you, print lies about you, defraud you, etc. I'm guessing you don't have a problem with any of those things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 08:45:38 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 08:38:29 PM
I have a really hard time with making things mandatory.

Get over it. Shoes are mandatory in stores and restaurants too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 08:46:20 PM
Quote from: ixnay on June 22, 2020, 08:05:12 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 07:59:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 22, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 22, 2020, 05:40:43 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 22, 2020, 05:37:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.

I've often wondered if we wouldn't have been better off simply requiring masks where needed indoors first, instead of shutting everything down and keeping everyone inside all the time.

Probably, but again I refer to all those unknowns with the Virus and the scary scenes out of Europe driving a lot of local health policies here.  I would think the mask requirement would be the go-to in a future pandemic rather than it being a point of resistance like it was with COVID-19.
I would hope, but tons of people seem to think that wearing a mask is an infringement of their freedoms.

It's not. It's a ridiculous argument.

An argument that a lot of folks on free republic.com are fond of making.

Good for them. They're wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
Wearing a mask is not that hard, and it's unfortunate that many people are resistant to it. It's literally the least one can do, not just to stop the spread of COVID, but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it. As I mentioned upthread (somewhere in the vast 4200-post expanse ...), would you claim that "no shirt, no shoes, no service" rules are an infringement of ones freedom? Of course not, and mask wearing is not any different. It's not even like it's all the time, just indoors in stores and when social distancing is impractical.

Obviously, if you've got breathing problems, that's different. Mask wearing is no fun with glasses, either, but it's really not that big of a deal if it means we're helping contain the virus and allowing the economy to hum along somewhat normally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 22, 2020, 10:21:07 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 22, 2020, 05:37:50 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 22, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Maybe instead of a "stay at home" order, there should have been a "stay outside" order.

I've often wondered if we wouldn't have been better off simply requiring masks where needed indoors first, instead of shutting everything down and keeping everyone inside all the time.

Of course, as Dr. Fauci admitted, the government initially lied about the usefulness of masks for the general public, to keep masks available for medical personnel, etc. who most needed them.

Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
It's literally the least one can do, not just to stop the spread of COVID, but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it.

So should people stop wearing masks if they don't necessarily "accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it", even if they otherwise agree with you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 10:38:46 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 22, 2020, 10:21:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
It's literally the least one can do, not just to stop the spread of COVID, but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it.
So should people stop wearing masks if they don't necessarily "accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it", even if they otherwise agree with you?

I guess I'm not sure where the distinction comes in. If people aren't accepting of the current situation/restrictions, (a) they wouldn't be wearing masks, and (b) they wouldn't otherwise agree with me.


Quote from: oscar on June 22, 2020, 10:21:07 PM
the government initially lied about the usefulness of masks for the general public, to keep masks available for medical personnel, etc. who most needed them.

To be fair, the situation was evolving very quickly, and it is true that medical personnel needed the masks more than the average citizen. Requiring/recommending masks for the population at large would have drained the already limited supply and created a lot of unnecessary panic in the time frame before supply chains ramped up.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 22, 2020, 10:54:44 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 10:38:46 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 22, 2020, 10:21:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
It's literally the least one can do, not just to stop the spread of COVID, but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it.
So should people stop wearing masks if they don't necessarily "accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it", even if they otherwise agree with you?

I guess I'm not sure where the distinction comes in. If people aren't accepting of the current situation/restrictions, (a) they wouldn't be wearing masks, and (b) they wouldn't otherwise agree with me.

People can agree with you that masks are an easy way to "stop the spread of COVID", while dissenting from some other aspects of the conventional wisdom or (to be oxymoronic) "government wisdom" about how to deal with COVID.

Some people may refuse to wear masks to send their own signals (including political ones). I'd rather that people on all sides stop with the signals, so they don't get in the way of the substantive steps they should be taking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on June 22, 2020, 11:03:54 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 04:59:32 PM
So in March and April, the Northeast and Midwest get hit hard when it's cold and gloomy and everyone wants to be inside. Meanwhile the weather in the South and Southwest is pleasant, and they largely get through without a large outbreak.

Now in June, Texas, Arizona and Florida are getting hit hard when it's hot as heck and everyone wants to be inside. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest finally get some beautiful weather, people want to be outside, and they've largely gotten things under control.

There's just no way that's mere coincidence. There's a strong, direct, relationship between time spent indoors and COVID cases.

Yup. And the beach areas are the ones which have been especially affected over the past couple of weeks as people vacation in those areas from the places where weather isn't as nice.

Like here in South Carolina. The beach areas (Charleston, Beaufort, Horry Counties) have all had surges in cases over this time.

Another major reason why cases are surging in this part of the country is the food and beverage industry. The large majority of those workers are in their 20s and early 30s. Most of them couldn't afford to take a day off of work pre-pandemic. The moment the Governors opened doors back up it was "full steam ahead"  for these places. They'd go to work sick or not feeling well. Restaurants have been closing due to 1 or 2 cases in each.

As some of the northern states start opening back up, I wonder if that will be a trend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 23, 2020, 12:53:22 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
As I mentioned upthread (somewhere in the vast 4200-post expanse ...), would you claim that "no shirt, no shoes, no service" rules are an infringement of ones freedom? Of course not, and mask wearing is not any different. It's not even like it's all the time, just indoors in stores and when social distancing is impractical.

Shoes and shirts requirements differ from mask requirements in one important way - they are the status quo.

Everyone has been used to wearing shoes and a shirt (and hopefully also pants) whenever they go out in public their whole lives. It doesn't seem onerous because it is merely codifying what has already long been normal behavior. But there has never been any expectation that people cover their faces before - and it thus produces a negative reaction from anyone resistant to change.

If prior to earlier this year it was normal and expected that everyone went to restaurants topless, and then suddenly there was a rule requiring shirts, many of the same people would be up in arms about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on June 23, 2020, 01:07:39 AM
If wearing shoes and shirts was commonplace, those signs would be unnecessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 23, 2020, 04:19:43 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on June 22, 2020, 05:58:16 PM
Or try a different type of mask/face covering.

Or even try a different design of the type you've been using. My work mandates everyone wear a company-issued disposable mask (not N95, just the flimsy surgical-style masks, and no bringing cloth masks from home allowed), and I've gotten experienced wildly different comfort from different brands of the same type of mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 23, 2020, 06:43:31 AM
Quote from: oscar on June 22, 2020, 10:54:44 PM
Some people may refuse to wear masks to send their own signals (including political ones). I'd rather that people on all sides stop with the signals, so they don't get in the way of the substantive steps they should be taking.

Unfortunately, we all know we're on Candid Camera now: Not to give anyone more attention, but there's always that a loud fraction of a percentage who are agent provocateurs, which is French for "noisy jackass who does it for internet fame". 

Quote from: kphoger on June 22, 2020, 12:47:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 19, 2020, 05:21:50 PM

Quote from: formulanone on June 19, 2020, 05:08:48 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 19, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
Yeah, I don't do this in the USA, but no problem in Mexico!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/3604/3406090339_b524e26146_k.jpg)
[photo from 2009]


Either the laws of physics don't exist in Mexico, or you aren't allowed go above 10 mph?

Speaking as a parent, I sincerely hope you don't plan on carrying children in your lap in a moving vehicle anymore. That's just reckless contempt for life.

But it is a common part of life down there in Mexico.  I’m not trying to justify it or say the practice is bad, but that’s a pretty tame example of what is normal down there.  It kind of reminds me of how driving used to be during the 1980s when things like seat belt use wasn’t universally accepted as a truism.  Back in that era even in the United States most would look twice if kids were in the back seat with no belt on or sitting on a parents lap. 

For one thing, traffic generally moves at around 10-20 mph in that town.  But, besides that...  different culture, different norms.  I've sat on the side of a pickup truck bed while being driven down a state highway in Mexico, completely normal there.  When I was in high school, during a Spanish class trip to Mexico, I once sat in a plastic lawn chair in the middle of a conversion van because there weren't enough seats for our whole group.  I believe that, on the day the picture above was taken, there weren't enough seats in the vehicle for all of us, so I had my son sit with me.

Heck, in Mexico, it's common to see on-duty police officers standing up in the back of pickup trucks.

And, anyway, there have been times that my wife breast-fed a baby in the passenger seat while I was driving down the highway here in the US—rather than finding somewhere to park and wasting 15 minutes of drive time.  I also remember once, while my wife was driving south through northern Iowa while one of our sons was potty-training, I crawled into the back of the minivan, got the potty chair out, and had my son use it while we were going 75 mph down the Interstate.  Legal? no.  Safe during a crash? no.  Worth the very slight risk risk, yes.  In my opinion, what's pictured is really safer than putting a kid in a seat on the back of a bicycle and cycling down city streets.

See, I've known (though second-hand) examples of people killed while in moving vehicles because they got up at the wrong time to feed a baby or help a child out. Maybe you hadn't. My point is, that cultural norms shouldn't take precedence over trying to do something carefully instead worrying about what anyone else thinks. We all have personal examples where we do the "right thing" instead of the "popular thing", because those are called "values".

If you can afford to keep your child safe regardless of the additional hassle or loss of time, you do so. Yeah, I'm locking the gate long after the foal left the stable to be a thoroughbred, but you're basically proving the point that it's okay to do things that may not be safe because that's okay in another land.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?  That's almost the number one thing you hear stated in commercials and/or ads these days.  I want to say it began shifting this way after 9/11 and at least in the context of work places it has really ramped up this last decade.  Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

Speaking of 9/11 the response to in the general population has been very similar.  It started with people yanking all their money out of investments and becoming super obsessed with safety or locking up for a couple months.  Back then the level of fear gradually began to wane as it did now but it took a solid decade for concerns about terrorism not to be an everyday thing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 07:48:52 AM
Quote from: oscar on June 22, 2020, 10:54:44 PM
Some people may refuse to wear masks to send their own signals (including political ones). I'd rather that people on all sides stop with the signals, so they don't get in the way of the substantive steps they should be taking.

Gotcha. No disagreement there; I guess maybe "signal" was the wrong framing for what I was trying to say. Mask wearing is an appropriate substantive step people should be taking that also happens to be in compliance with what the government recommends, so just manning up and doing it kills two birds with one stone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 07:50:17 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

I've definitely heard that on the phone and even seen it in people's email signatures. But it's been entirely since the pandemic started. I didn't notice it at all before March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 07:59:49 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on June 23, 2020, 12:53:22 AM
Shoes and shirts requirements differ from mask requirements in one important way - they are the status quo.

Everyone has been used to wearing shoes and a shirt (and hopefully also pants) whenever they go out in public their whole lives. It doesn't seem onerous because it is merely codifying what has already long been normal behavior. But there has never been any expectation that people cover their faces before - and it thus produces a negative reaction from anyone resistant to change.

If prior to earlier this year it was normal and expected that everyone went to restaurants topless, and then suddenly there was a rule requiring shirts, many of the same people would be up in arms about it.

I get that people don't like change - me included - but mask wearing will soon be the status quo, and I would argue it already is in certain parts of the country. I'm just not sure why anyone would refuse to comply. Grumbling about it is normal and even expected, but you should still do it even if you don't like it. Also, the benefits to public health, safety, and sanitation are pretty clearly more tangible than the shirt and shoes requirements, IMO.


Quote from: Rothman on June 23, 2020, 01:07:39 AM
If wearing shoes and shirts was commonplace, those signs would be unnecessary.

:eyebrow: Since when is wearing shoes and shirts not commonplace, at least with reference to indoor public places?
My house doesn't have a shoes and shirts requirement, and neither does the local beach, but that's different.


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?  That's almost the number one thing you hear stated in commercials and/or ads these days.  I want to say it began shifting this way after 9/11 and at least in the context of work places it has really ramped up this last decade.  Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

Speaking of 9/11 the response to in the general population has been very similar.  It started with people yanking all their money out of investments and becoming super obsessed with safety or locking up for a couple months.  Back then the level of fear gradually began to wane as it did now but it took a solid decade for concerns about terrorism not to be an everyday thing. 


Workplace safety has been a thing for longer than the past decade.  It became a thing when businesses realized that it made more sense to spend more up front on workplace safety than to pay increased liability insurance and OSHA fines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 09:29:04 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?  That's almost the number one thing you hear stated in commercials and/or ads these days.  I want to say it began shifting this way after 9/11 and at least in the context of work places it has really ramped up this last decade.  Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

Speaking of 9/11 the response to in the general population has been very similar.  It started with people yanking all their money out of investments and becoming super obsessed with safety or locking up for a couple months.  Back then the level of fear gradually began to wane as it did now but it took a solid decade for concerns about terrorism not to be an everyday thing. 


Workplace safety has been a thing for longer than the past decade.  It became a thing when businesses realized that it made more sense to spend more up front on workplace safety than to pay increased liability insurance and OSHA fines.
Seems to be growing worse with OSHA enforcement of private laws. While it is US approach for a while, things may be going to a snapping point where safety defeats the purpose of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 10:04:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?  That's almost the number one thing you hear stated in commercials and/or ads these days.  I want to say it began shifting this way after 9/11 and at least in the context of work places it has really ramped up this last decade.  Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

Speaking of 9/11 the response to in the general population has been very similar.  It started with people yanking all their money out of investments and becoming super obsessed with safety or locking up for a couple months.  Back then the level of fear gradually began to wane as it did now but it took a solid decade for concerns about terrorism not to be an everyday thing. 


Workplace safety has been a thing for longer than the past decade.  It became a thing when businesses realized that it made more sense to spend more up front on workplace safety than to pay increased liability insurance and OSHA fines.

Ralph Nader and the Occupational Safety Healthy Act of 1970 came to mind when I was writing my post as a more historic starting point.  That OSHA Act was kind of the culmination of abusive and unsafe work practices of the late 19th Century/20th Century.  Unsafe at any Speed really brought how dangerous driving was to light. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 10:04:14 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 08:43:07 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?  That's almost the number one thing you hear stated in commercials and/or ads these days.  I want to say it began shifting this way after 9/11 and at least in the context of work places it has really ramped up this last decade.  Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

Speaking of 9/11 the response to in the general population has been very similar.  It started with people yanking all their money out of investments and becoming super obsessed with safety or locking up for a couple months.  Back then the level of fear gradually began to wane as it did now but it took a solid decade for concerns about terrorism not to be an everyday thing. 


Workplace safety has been a thing for longer than the past decade.  It became a thing when businesses realized that it made more sense to spend more up front on workplace safety than to pay increased liability insurance and OSHA fines.

Ralph Nader and the Occupational Safety Healthy Act of 1970 came to mind when I was writing my post as a more historic starting point.  That OSHA Act was kind of the culmination of abusive and unsafe work practices of the late 19th Century/20th Century.  Unsafe at any Speed really brought how dangerous driving was to light.
A lot of practices we now despise could easily be the best ones at the time when they were used, and the government wasn't the main driving force behind improvements. An interesting graph showing technology advances behind mine safety:
(https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/M822A1F5.GIF)

Interestingly enough, the number of workplace death in US is essentially flat for a few years. Coupled with a lot of outsourcing of manual labor jobs, one may assume that things are actually getting worse. My strong impression is that the bureaucratic approach is now the king, without regard to actual work conditions - and that covers multiple federal agencies. I can dig out my rant about how FDA and CDC handled start of COVID - and I still didn't change my mind that some high ranked officials are to be held personally criminally liable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
...but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it.

This hints at my biggest problems with this whole deal.

For years, we've been conditioned to believe that it's acceptable to question and challenge government edicts. Everyone is always opposed to some government decision. One former first lady, U.S. senator, secretary of state, and twice-failed presidential candidate even went on an epic screeching rant about it. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7ziSDQKTLA)



But now, we're supposed to accept what the government says without question? Just happily comply without a word of opposition? Smile and say "thank you sir, may I have another?" Why is it so terrible to question the government's actions about this, while it's actually encouraged to protest other acts?

We don't need "a new normal." We need "normal" with the understanding that things happen. There's an assumption of risk for everything one does in life. It's cloudy outside today with a chance of storms. I could get in the shower and then get electrocuted if lightning strikes the ground near my home and the current is conducted through the pipes and the water. I could get hit by a car when I go out to vote later today.

There's been so much conflicting information put out about masks and their effectiveness that why wouldn't someone with discernment be skeptical?

Everyone has probably seen the "blonde joke" meme about the woman wearing a crocheted mask. It's tempting to get one and wear it to comply with the letter of the directives. And everyone has probably seen the "putting up chain link fence to keep mosquitoes out" meme as well.

My position is this: If you want to wear a mask to protect yourself, feel free. If you think you've been exposed and want to wear a mask to keep your germs to yourself, feel free. But if you haven't been exposed, there's no good reason for you to wear a mask.

The desperation Kentucky's governor is showing in his semi-weekly live updates/press conferences (I think he knows the people are growing weary of him; he's cut from seven days a week to five, then to four, and now he's just doing two or three a week) is comical. Every day his pleadings get more frantic, "I'm not seeing enough people wearing masks, too many people aren't wearing masks, please please please do what I say!" It's funny yet sad to watch his influence evaporate.

Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 07:50:17 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

I've definitely heard that on the phone and even seen it in people's email signatures. But it's been entirely since the pandemic started. I didn't notice it at all before March.

I have a co-worker who's been saying that for 15 years, anytime she parts company with me, in person or on the phone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 12:01:49 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
...but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it.

This hints at my biggest problems with this whole deal.

For years, we've been conditioned to believe that it's acceptable to question and challenge government edicts. Everyone is always opposed to some government decision. One former first lady, U.S. senator, secretary of state, and twice-failed presidential candidate even went on an epic screeching rant about it. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7ziSDQKTLA)



But now, we're supposed to accept what the government says without question? Just happily comply without a word of opposition? Smile and say "thank you sir, may I have another?" Why is it so terrible to question the government's actions about this, while it's actually encouraged to protest other acts?

We don't need "a new normal." We need "normal" with the understanding that things happen. There's an assumption of risk for everything one does in life. It's cloudy outside today with a chance of storms. I could get in the shower and then get electrocuted if lightning strikes the ground near my home and the current is conducted through the pipes and the water. I could get hit by a car when I go out to vote later today.

There's been so much conflicting information put out about masks and their effectiveness that why wouldn't someone with discernment be skeptical?

Everyone has probably seen the "blonde joke" meme about the woman wearing a crocheted mask. It's tempting to get one and wear it to comply with the letter of the directives. And everyone has probably seen the "putting up chain link fence to keep mosquitoes out" meme as well.

My position is this: If you want to wear a mask to protect yourself, feel free. If you think you've been exposed and want to wear a mask to keep your germs to yourself, feel free. But if you haven't been exposed, there's no good reason for you to wear a mask.

The desperation Kentucky's governor is showing in his semi-weekly live updates/press conferences (I think he knows the people are growing weary of him; he's cut from seven days a week to five, then to four, and now he's just doing two or three a week) is comical. Every day his pleadings get more frantic, "I'm not seeing enough people wearing masks, too many people aren't wearing masks, please please please do what I say!" It's funny yet sad to watch his influence evaporate.

Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 07:50:17 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Now even one of the popular ways to say goodbye to someone is to use the phrase "stay safe."

I've definitely heard that on the phone and even seen it in people's email signatures. But it's been entirely since the pandemic started. I didn't notice it at all before March.

I have a co-worker who's been saying that for 15 years, anytime she parts company with me, in person or on the phone.
You wear a mask to protects others too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 12:06:48 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
...but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it.


But now, we're supposed to accept what the government says without question? Just happily comply without a word of opposition? Smile and say "thank you sir, may I have another?" Why is it so terrible to question the government's actions about this, while it's actually encouraged to protest other acts?


I am cutting most of this post out because you can't seem to not "go political."

But as far as your bolded item, no one is suggesting that you accept what the government says without question.  The appropriate question are, why should I wear a mask?  Or, why would wearing a mask help?

Then the government could point to numerous studies that show that wearing masks prevents the spread of the disease.  For instance, here is a meta-analysis of 172 studies that shows that masking is an important way to stop the spread by the Lancet.  And the Lancet is one of the most respected, peer reviewed medical journals around.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

So yes HB.  Ask all the questions you want.  But in the end, those questions will be answered with facts.  And the facts support the position that wearing a mask is important.

But that really isn't your problem.  You don't want to ask questions and have them answered with facts.  You simply don't want to wear a mask and are using a dippy "freedom" argument to justify it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 23, 2020, 12:14:45 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 10:59:14 AMA lot of practices we now despise could easily be the best ones at the time when they were used, and the government wasn't the main driving force behind improvements. An interesting graph showing technology advances behind mine safety:

(https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/M822A1F5.GIF)

The trouble with graphs such as this is that they can be less than illuminating as to the underlying causal relationships.  For example, this one is consistent with mine owners resisting upgrades from the Davy lamp (the main means of preventing mine explosions in the nineteenth century) because there was no federal oversight to require them to use better equipment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 23, 2020, 12:28:08 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
But if you know you haven't been exposed, there's no good reason for you to wear a mask.
FIFY.

Question is, how do you know?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 23, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
Quote from: GaryV on June 23, 2020, 12:28:08 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
But if you know you haven't been exposed, there's no good reason for you to wear a mask.
FIFY.

Question is, how do you know?


Maybe HB only leaves his house once every fourteen days and interacts with no other humans.

As far as the mask debate - I actually also oppose mandating masks, but also recognize that with freedom comes responsibility and duty to community. Freedom doesn't come without sacrifice, and I love my country and am more than willing to make the tiniest of stupid little sacrifices by wearing a mask if it seems to help my community.

The overwhelming body of data shows that wearing a mask is at least marginally "better" than not wearing a mask for the broader community, so I freely choose to wear a mask. The people that actually know what they are talking about in my community (not pseudo-scientists on the internet) recommend wearing a face covering, and they're the people who my community has placed faith and confidence in, so I trust those people to be giving the best available advice, even if it's imperfect. If that guidance changes down the line that doesn't mean those people were "wrong" - that's not how this works - our epidemiologists and public health leaders are providing the best information they have based on what they know. Because we've never seen anything like this before what we "know" is going to change and evolve every day. And that's fine!

To me the question really comes down to "Do you believe that public health officials are acting in good faith to make their communities a better place or do you believe that public health officials have some nefarious secondary agenda?" I choose to believe the former.

The decision to wear a mask is one I make freely. I also freely negatively judge people who do not wear masks and freely do not spend money at establishments that don't freely choose to be good neighbors and take this seriously. If you accept the premise that public health officials are generally acting in good faith, this has nothing to do with questioning authority and everything to do with being a good neighbor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 01:05:16 PM
A fascinating story I didn't know, despite the entire thing discovered in 2005:
It is pretty possible that humans already went through a carbon copy of today's situation.
One of today's common cold coronaviruses -  HCoV-OC43 - split from bovine coronavirus in about 1890. It coincides with a pandemic of "Russian flu" of 1889-90. There is no specific evidence, but that was not the common flu - it had unusually high mortality and neurologic complications.

A bit more details:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/did-a-coronavirus-cause-the-pandemic-that-killed-queen-victorias-heir
and the original research paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544107/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 01:17:34 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 23, 2020, 12:14:45 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 10:59:14 AMA lot of practices we now despise could easily be the best ones at the time when they were used, and the government wasn't the main driving force behind improvements. An interesting graph showing technology advances behind mine safety:

The trouble with graphs such as this is that they can be less than illuminating as to the underlying causal relationships.  For example, this one is consistent with mine owners resisting upgrades from the Davy lamp (the main means of preventing mine explosions in the nineteenth century) because there was no federal oversight to require them to use better equipment.
I would relate this to the mask issue  and another reply on this page:
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
The overwhelming body of data shows that wearing a mask is at least marginally "better" than not wearing a mask for the broader community, so I freely choose to wear a mask. The people that actually know what they are talking about in my community (not pseudo-scientists on the internet) recommend wearing a face covering, and they're the people who my community has placed faith and confidence in, so I trust those people to be giving the best available advice, even if it's imperfect. If that guidance changes down the line that doesn't mean those people were "wrong" - that's not how this works - our epidemiologists and public health leaders are providing the best information they have based on what they know. Because we've never seen anything like this before what we "know" is going to change and evolve every day. And that's fine!

A pretty comparable situation IMHO - a good argument that something is safer goes a long way. New approaches may still have some people resisting the change, but at some point things just settle. In case of business -  rumors about unsafe conditions, and eventually liability would come into play. Can we assume that insurance company, qualified engineers fleeing and lack of risky workforce would do the same with non-compliant mine owner?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on June 23, 2020, 01:20:19 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
The decision to wear a mask is one I make freely. I also freely negatively judge people who do not wear masks and freely do not spend money at establishments that don't freely choose to be good neighbors and take this seriously. If you accept the premise that public health officials are generally acting in good faith, this has nothing to do with questioning authority and everything to do with being a good neighbor.

This is a big reason why the bad advice early on about not wearing masks was so damaging. In that particular instance, they arguably weren't acting in good faith (more concerned about the mask supply chain instead of overall effectiveness), which has unfortunately made it harder for many to trust them now. As a result, we all suffer, because insufficient precautions being taken means the virus doesn't go away, in turn meaning we all, regardless of how much we trust/distrust the government or public health officials, have to continue dealing with the situation far longer than we would have needed to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 23, 2020, 01:48:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?

If I were to take a guess at this question, it would be when cars went into hyper-mode to be safe, which would be the advent of the airbag.  While seatbelts became mandatory first, the laws concentrated on those in the front seat, and the penalties were a slap on the risk and only enforced when another violation was noticed first.  When auto manufacturers had to chose between automatic seat belts or airbags, the overwhelming majority went with airbags.  And after that is when you saw a serious increase in the yearn for safety. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 23, 2020, 01:53:22 PM
Quote from: Eth on June 23, 2020, 01:20:19 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
The decision to wear a mask is one I make freely. I also freely negatively judge people who do not wear masks and freely do not spend money at establishments that don't freely choose to be good neighbors and take this seriously. If you accept the premise that public health officials are generally acting in good faith, this has nothing to do with questioning authority and everything to do with being a good neighbor.

This is a big reason why the bad advice early on about not wearing masks was so damaging. In that particular instance, they arguably weren't acting in good faith (more concerned about the mask supply chain instead of overall effectiveness), which has unfortunately made it harder for many to trust them now. As a result, we all suffer, because insufficient precautions being taken means the virus doesn't go away, in turn meaning we all, regardless of how much we trust/distrust the government or public health officials, have to continue dealing with the situation far longer than we would have needed to.

I don't think they were acting in bad faith - the supply chain concern was very very valid at the time in an era where nobody knew just how bad this was going to get and people were actively hoarding large quantities of supplies - I just think the messaging retroactively ended up not looking good.

The initial argument was "don't wear a mask" because people were hoarding and stocking up on N95 masks that hospitals needed,so "don't wear a mask" was the right argument at the time. Some small minority of people were making cloth face masks but the vast majority of people who wanted to mask up were trying to buy PPE that was better used in hospitals, so "a mask is minimally helpful" was a good way to nip it in the bud. Given the run on PPE during the initial wave I think the call to citizens to not put pressure on the supply chain was the right one, even if the messaging doesn't look all that great in hindsight. It's easy to look back and say they should have messaged it better as this being a case of triage, but given how paranoid people were for a month and how much strain it put on the supply chain I'm not sure how effective that would have been.

We also didn't know as much about how the virus was transmitted in the early days (how much was from airborne v. contact, etc). We were also in a different world then, where the order of the day was "stay at home," which rendered masks wholly unnecessary. Now that the order of the day is "live your lives with caution," the whole mask thing becomes more important. I'm sure the preference of public health officials is that from a pure public health standpoint we all still stay at home, but they're only one voice at the table (and this is fine!), so their recommendations have to adapt based on what our leaders collectively agree on. While I agree it's easy to look back in hindsight and say "our public health people screwed up the messaging," the reasoning made sense at the time and still logically tracks today.

I suppose the overall issue is this whole situation is very nuanced and humans collectively aren't all that great at nuance. We want clean, simple answers to complex questions and sometimes that's not possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 01:57:42 PM
Smart people make corrections when they realize their initial thoughts were wrong.  They recieve and process additional information, and change course accordingly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 02:09:55 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 23, 2020, 01:48:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?

If I were to take a guess at this question, it would be when cars went into hyper-mode to be safe, which would be the advent of the airbag.  While seatbelts became mandatory first, the laws concentrated on those in the front seat, and the penalties were a slap on the risk and only enforced when another violation was noticed first.  When auto manufacturers had to chose between automatic seat belts or airbags, the overwhelming majority went with airbags.  And after that is when you saw a serious increase in the yearn for safety.

Heh...I remember a lot of import cars had those automatic seat belts standard and the air bags were the option.  That was also the era when anti-lock brakes were more of an optional item instead of being even close to mandatory.  I seem to recall there was a lot of news stories in the early 1990s promoting the use of air bags as a life saving device.  If I recall correctly the main counter points were increased costs and less fuel efficiency due to increased weight. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 02:12:39 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 01:53:22 PM
Quote from: Eth on June 23, 2020, 01:20:19 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
The decision to wear a mask is one I make freely. I also freely negatively judge people who do not wear masks and freely do not spend money at establishments that don't freely choose to be good neighbors and take this seriously. If you accept the premise that public health officials are generally acting in good faith, this has nothing to do with questioning authority and everything to do with being a good neighbor.

This is a big reason why the bad advice early on about not wearing masks was so damaging. In that particular instance, they arguably weren't acting in good faith (more concerned about the mask supply chain instead of overall effectiveness), which has unfortunately made it harder for many to trust them now. As a result, we all suffer, because insufficient precautions being taken means the virus doesn't go away, in turn meaning we all, regardless of how much we trust/distrust the government or public health officials, have to continue dealing with the situation far longer than we would have needed to.

I don't think they were acting in bad faith - the supply chain concern was very very valid at the time in an era where nobody knew just how bad this was going to get and people were actively hoarding large quantities of supplies - I just think the messaging retroactively ended up not looking good.

The initial argument was "don't wear a mask" because people were hoarding and stocking up on N95 masks that hospitals needed,so "don't wear a mask" was the right argument at the time. Some small minority of people were making cloth face masks but the vast majority of people who wanted to mask up were trying to buy PPE that was better used in hospitals, so "a mask is minimally helpful" was a good way to nip it in the bud. Given the run on PPE during the initial wave I think the call to citizens to not put pressure on the supply chain was the right one, even if the messaging doesn't look all that great in hindsight. It's easy to look back and say they should have messaged it better as this being a case of triage, but given how paranoid people were for a month and how much strain it put on the supply chain I'm not sure how effective that would have been.

We also didn't know as much about how the virus was transmitted in the early days (how much was from airborne v. contact, etc). We were also in a different world then, where the order of the day was "stay at home," which rendered masks wholly unnecessary. Now that the order of the day is "live your lives with caution," the whole mask thing becomes more important. I'm sure the preference of public health officials is that from a pure public health standpoint we all still stay at home, but they're only one voice at the table (and this is fine!), so their recommendations have to adapt based on what our leaders collectively agree on. While I agree it's easy to look back in hindsight and say "our public health people screwed up the messaging," the reasoning made sense at the time and still logically tracks today.

I suppose the overall issue is this whole situation is very nuanced and humans collectively aren't all that great at nuance. We want clean, simple answers to complex questions and sometimes that's not possible.

Going to "use cloth mask instead, save cool stuff for hospitals" could be a much safer message
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 23, 2020, 02:15:25 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 02:12:39 PM


Going to "use cloth mask instead, save cool stuff for hospitals" could be a much safer message

Probably in hindsight that would have been the right message to use but at the time a) nobody had really studied the effectiveness of cloth masks so there wasn't much in the way of data to support that statement and b) given how people were hoarding medical supplies anyway I'm not sure people would have respected the latter part of that statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 02:24:25 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 02:15:25 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 02:12:39 PM


Going to "use cloth mask instead, save cool stuff for hospitals" could be a much safer message

Probably in hindsight that would have been the right message to use but at the time a) nobody had really studied the effectiveness of cloth masks so there wasn't much in the way of data to support that statement and b) given how people were hoarding medical supplies anyway I'm not sure people would have respected the latter part of that statement.

b) agreed
a) using a napkin/elbow to cover one's cough is as old as idea of respiratory infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 02:46:49 PM
Quote from: formulanone on June 23, 2020, 06:43:31 AM
If you can afford to keep your child safe regardless of the additional hassle or loss of time, you do so ... you're basically proving the point that it's okay to do things that may not be safe because that's okay in another land.

I do believe it's OK to do things that may not be safe.  Period.  Safety is not my number one priority.




Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 12:06:48 PM
no one is suggesting that you accept what the government says without question.  The appropriate question are, why should I wear a mask?  Or, why would wearing a mask help?

[...]

So yes HB.  Ask all the questions you want.  But in the end, those questions will be answered with facts.  And the facts support the position that wearing a mask is important.

But that really isn't your problem.  You don't want to ask questions and have them answered with facts.  You simply don't want to wear a mask and are using a dippy "freedom" argument to justify it.

Fallacy of equivocation.  Your suggestion is not what "questioning the government" means.

You're basically saying that we may question only the reasons and rationale behind what the government says, but that we must not question what the government says–that we must only accept and obey it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 23, 2020, 02:49:45 PM
It's not just the government; scientists are also saying to wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 02:51:18 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 23, 2020, 02:49:45 PM
It's not just the government; scientists are also saying to wear a mask.

That wasn't the point of his question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 02:52:29 PM
The pertinent question is shown below.

Quote from: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
Why is it so terrible to question the government's actions about this, while it's actually encouraged to protest other acts?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 02:56:56 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 02:52:29 PM
The pertinent question is shown below.

Quote from: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
Why is it so terrible to question the government's actions about this, while it's actually encouraged to protest other acts?
Because not just the government is saying that we should wear masks. Health experts are saying the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:07:49 PM
OK, to spell it out:  It was suggested that people should wear a mask specifically to signal a willingness to accept what the government says.  See below.

Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
Wearing a mask is ... the least one can do ... to signal a general willingness to accept ... the government recommendations

The question was then asked:  Why is an unwillingness to accept what the government says so "unfortunate" in this context, while it's both actively and tacitly encouraged in other contexts?  (Those specific contexts should be obvious.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 23, 2020, 03:10:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:07:49 PM
OK, to spell it out:  It was suggested that people should wear a mask specifically to signal a willingness to accept what the government says.  See below.

Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
Wearing a mask is ... the least one can do ... to signal a general willingness to accept ... the government recommendations

The question was then asked:  Why is an unwillingness to accept what the government says so "unfortunate" in this context, while it's both actively and tacitly encouraged in other contexts?  (Those specific contexts should be obvious.)

The argument had bits of straw popping out it anyhow. Nobody was always conditioned to deny everything or accept everything unless they're on the desperate fringes of society.

We typically make individual decisions which range from "mostly harmless" and "good", because it's difficult to impossible to foresee the impact and chaos of all decision-making. In most cases, there's little to no impact that hasn't been dealt with. But when calculated as a total, the masses can make lots of minor decisions with harsh consequences. (Personally, I think that's just a natural law of entropy...it's largely inescapable in a society that increases in sheer numbers and consumption.) Masses of people play into a lot of hive-mind thinking, because deep thought and judgement about science, medicine, statistics, risk, can be difficult for those who only read in memetic structures and sound bites.

I think the rallying cry of "Flatten the Curve" has been lost in all this; it wasn't about stopping COVID-19 dead in its tracks, just reasonably keeping as many people out of hospitals as possible.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 23, 2020, 01:48:03 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Speaking of "safe"  does anyone know when this whole American cultural preoccupation with "safety"  started?

If I were to take a guess at this question, it would be when cars went into hyper-mode to be safe, which would be the advent of the airbag.  While seatbelts became mandatory first, the laws concentrated on those in the front seat, and the penalties were a slap on the risk and only enforced when another violation was noticed first.  When auto manufacturers had to chose between automatic seat belts or airbags, the overwhelming majority went with airbags.  And after that is when you saw a serious increase in the yearn for safety. 

Maybe some of us realized at 40,000 people were dying every year and wanted to do something about it (but still eat the unhealthy things and keep most speed limits in place).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 23, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 02:52:29 PM
The pertinent question is shown below.

Quote from: hbelkins on June 23, 2020, 11:37:47 AM
Why is it so terrible to question the government's actions about this, while it's actually encouraged to protest other acts?

Because that's a weird false equivocation that doesn't account for context.

There's nothing wrong with questioning government in either case. If you want to debate the effectiveness of face masks or even the motivations of policymakers, fine, that's great. If you want to debate the role of systemic racism in America, fine, great.

The devil is in the details though when it comes to willfully disregarding government in the form of not wearing a mask or mass protests. Divorcing the timing of how this has come about for a second,look at it from a game theory perspective for each issue:

Four possibilities on masks:
1. Government is right on masks and you wear a mask - you have helped stopped the spread of disease
2. Government is right on masks and you do not wear a mask - you have willfully endangered other people
3. Government is wrong on masks and you wear a mask - you've been somewhat inconvenienced for no reason
4. Government is wrong on masks and you don't wear a mask - no effect one way or another

The worst case downside for wearing a mask is that you're doing something that is somewhat annoying for no reason and are inconvenienced by that. This is not a significant sacrifice.

The best case upside for wearing a mask is that you're actively saving lives.

Based on that game theory, it makes sense to wear a mask.
--

Four possibilities on protests:
1. There is a systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you support protests to resolve - you have raised awareness of an issue and have helped to save lives
2. There is a systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you do not support protests to resolve - you are a racist
3. There is no systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you support protests to resolve - there is some unnecessary graffiti/property damage
4. There is no systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you do not support protests to resolve - no effect

The worst case scenario for protesting is that we end up with some property damage that can be repaired.
The best case scenario for protesting is that you're actively saving lives.

Based on that game theory, it makes sense to support protests.

--

At least to me, that's why willfully disregarding government to protest perceived racism is a far more noble pursuit than willfully disregarding government to protest perceived inconvenience(?) for having to wear a mask.

Certainly I think it's fair to say that the motives of those protesting masks are more rooted in the individual ("I don't like wearing a mask and think this is inconvenient") where the motives of those protesting systemic racism are more rooted in the community ("I don't think black people should be killed by police if they haven't committed a capital offense").

As a patriotic American, I care about my country, and so I'm always going to be more sympathetic to those who are trying to collectively improve their community than those who are trying to avoid individual inconvenience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 03:17:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:07:49 PM
OK, to spell it out:  It was suggested that people should wear a mask specifically to signal a willingness to accept what the government says.  See below.

Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
Wearing a mask is ... the least one can do ... to signal a general willingness to accept ... the government recommendations

The question was then asked:  Why is an unwillingness to accept what the government says so "unfortunate" in this context, while it's both actively and tacitly encouraged in other contexts?  (Those specific contexts should be obvious.)


Hold on.  You snipped out half of his setence.  He said...  "It's literally the least one can do, not just to stop the spread of COVID, but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it."

It is obvious that the context of his quote was rooted into the helping to stop the spread of COVID.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 02:46:49 PM
Quote from: formulanone on June 23, 2020, 06:43:31 AM
If you can afford to keep your child safe regardless of the additional hassle or loss of time, you do so ... you're basically proving the point that it's okay to do things that may not be safe because that's okay in another land.

I do believe it's OK to do things that may not be safe.  Period.  Safety is not my number one priority.
There is an additional qualifier - safety of those around you.
I may care less if my neighbor works on a flimsy ladder - I may offer a better one if I have it, but that's about it. Safety glasses and hard hat? Same thing.  Burning things with chunks of wood flying out? Not so fast, burning up my place is now at stake. 
Virus is, by its nature, is a collective problem.  Your lack of mask is a direct threat to me, so it is not you doing unsafe things (your call man!) but you affecting me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
The worst case scenario for protesting is that we end up with some property damage that can be repaired.

I hesitate to post this, at the risk of this turning even more political than it already has.  But I don't believe that what you typed is the actual worst-case scenario in that context–rather that the police will end up being less willing to intervene in minority disputes, and that even more minority lives will be lost as a result than are currently being lost due to any existing police bias.

(And my own personal research into the data suggests that any police bias leads to only a minuscule disparity between black and white deaths–possibly even so minuscule as to be statistically insignificant–and that we should instead be focusing more of our scrutiny on the parts of the political process that happen after arrest.  But that's a topic for another time and another forum.)

But, other than that, your response was well thought out and presented.




Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 03:17:49 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:07:49 PM
OK, to spell it out:  It was suggested that people should wear a mask specifically to signal a willingness to accept what the government says.  See below.

Quote from: webny99 on June 22, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
Wearing a mask is ... the least one can do ... to signal a general willingness to accept ... the government recommendations

The question was then asked:  Why is an unwillingness to accept what the government says so "unfortunate" in this context, while it's both actively and tacitly encouraged in other contexts?  (Those specific contexts should be obvious.)

Hold on.  You snipped out half of his setence.  He said...  "It's literally the least one can do, not just to stop the spread of COVID, but also just to signal a general willingness to accept the current situation and the government recommendations that come along with it."

It is obvious that the context of his quote was rooted into the helping to stop the spread of COVID.

Yes, exactly.  Willingness to bend the knee to the government is hailed as our duty in the context of and in the name of stopping COVID, while such willingness is derided in other contexts.  The willingness to follow government directives in one area of life and the unwillingness in other areas of life–especially by the same individuals–is perplexing to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:27:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
Your lack of mask is a direct threat to me

No it's not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:29:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:27:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
Your lack of mask is a direct threat to me

No it's not.
It is your personal unqualified opinion.
On the same page, you may claim that loaded gun with safety off in the holster is not a threat to anyone;  or a couple of drinks before the drive is OK as you're a great driver - but I may have a different opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:33:29 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:29:25 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:27:08 PM

Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
Your lack of mask is a direct threat to me

No it's not.

It is your personal unqualified opinion.
On the same page, you may claim that loaded gun with safety off in the holster is not a threat to anyone;  or a couple of drinks before the drive is OK as you're a great driver - but I may have a different opinion.

My not wearing a mask, my carrying a loaded gun, my getting behind the wheel after a couple of drinks–none of those things would constitute a direct threat to you.  Likewise, your lighting bottle rockets from your back porch would not be a direct threat to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 03:34:47 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:33:29 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:29:25 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:27:08 PM

Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
Your lack of mask is a direct threat to me

No it's not.

It is your personal unqualified opinion.
On the same page, you may claim that loaded gun with safety off in the holster is not a threat to anyone;  or a couple of drinks before the drive is OK as you're a great driver - but I may have a different opinion.

My not wearing a mask, my carrying a loaded gun, my getting behind the wheel after a couple of drinks–none of those things would constitute a direct threat to you.  Likewise, your lighting bottle rockets from your back porch would not be a direct threat to me.
But it constitutes a risk to others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:39:07 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 03:34:47 PM
But it constitutes a risk to others.

Yep.  But I won't get upset if he chooses to do so.

If he aims that at my house, though, I probably will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 03:40:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:39:07 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 03:34:47 PM
But it constitutes a risk to others.

Yep.  But I won't get upset if he chooses to do so.

If he aims that at my house, though, I probably will.
I don't get what you are trying to say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:41:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:33:29 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:29:25 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:27:08 PM

Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:25:25 PM
Your lack of mask is a direct threat to me

No it's not.

It is your personal unqualified opinion.
On the same page, you may claim that loaded gun with safety off in the holster is not a threat to anyone;  or a couple of drinks before the drive is OK as you're a great driver - but I may have a different opinion.

My not wearing a mask, my carrying a loaded gun, my getting behind the wheel after a couple of drinks–none of those things would constitute a direct threat to you.  Likewise, your lighting bottle rockets from your back porch would not be a direct threat to me.
Well, not to me as I am far away from you. Those closer to you may have a different opinion. And the same thing, you (and me) may take some risks personally and accept some risks from others (my neighbor LOVES fireworks. I occasionally find burnt leftovers on my wooden deck) - but there are limits to what I am willing to tolerate in terms of MY idea of how big that threat is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 03:44:06 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 03:40:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:39:07 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 03:34:47 PM
But it constitutes a risk to others.

Yep.  But I won't get upset if he chooses to do so.

If he aims that at my house, though, I probably will.
I don't get what you are trying to say.


What he's trying to do is contruct an argument, no matter how absurd, that defends his decision not to wear a mask even when it is not required. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:46:29 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:41:11 PM
Well, not to me as I am far away from you. Those closer to you may have a different opinion. And the same thing, you (and me) may take some risks personally and accept some risks from others (my neighbor LOVES fireworks. I occasionally find burnt leftovers on my wooden deck) - but there are limits to what I am willing to tolerate in terms of MY idea of how big that threat is.

People closer to me don't seem to have any problem with folks not wearing masks.  Most people in Wichita, in my experience, don't wear them, and nobody gets upset by that.  Meanwhile, people on the other side of the country on this forum–people I'll probably never even meet in real life–seem to have a problem with my not wearing a mask.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 03:44:06 PM
What he's trying to do is contruct an argument, no matter how absurd, that defends his decision not to wear a mask even when it is not required. 

What I'm trying to do is point out that nothing I wear or don't wear is a direct threat to someone hundreds of miles away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 03:49:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
Yes, exactly.  Willingness to bend the knee to the government is hailed as our duty in the context of and in the name of stopping COVID, while such willingness is derided in other contexts.  The willingness to follow government directives in one area of life and the unwillingness in other areas of life–especially by the same individuals–is perplexing to me.


Is it really?  We have a pandemic that has killed over 120,000 Americans, and we have a way to slow the spread of that pandemic, and you wonder why people think a government recommendation should be followed?

I mean, in three months this disease has killed about four times as many people who die in OWI accidents in a year.  Do you question why people "bend the knee to the government" and follow drunk driving laws?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:59:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:46:29 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 03:41:11 PM
Well, not to me as I am far away from you. Those closer to you may have a different opinion. And the same thing, you (and me) may take some risks personally and accept some risks from others (my neighbor LOVES fireworks. I occasionally find burnt leftovers on my wooden deck) - but there are limits to what I am willing to tolerate in terms of MY idea of how big that threat is.

People closer to me don't seem to have any problem with folks not wearing masks.  Most people in Wichita, in my experience, don't wear them, and nobody gets upset by that.  Meanwhile, people on the other side of the country on this forum–people I'll probably never even meet in real life–seem to have a problem with my not wearing a mask.
Fair enough. Your personal threat to me personally (as opposed to figurative meaning of "you and me")  is 0.
Some of us may feel you're "nearby" due to the way we communicate. Or it may be assuming that the world is small, and someone else on a different forum tells similar things to my neighbour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:01:01 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 03:49:46 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
Yes, exactly.  Willingness to bend the knee to the government is hailed as our duty in the context of and in the name of stopping COVID, while such willingness is derided in other contexts.  The willingness to follow government directives in one area of life and the unwillingness in other areas of life–especially by the same individuals–is perplexing to me.

Is it really?  We have a pandemic that has killed over 120,000 Americans, and we have a way to slow the spread of that pandemic, and you wonder why people think a government recommendation should be followed?

I mean, in three months this disease has killed about four times as many people who die in OWI accidents in a year.  Do you question why people "bend the knee to the government" and follow drunk driving laws?

People's cow-like willingness to follow directives started long before the death toll rose this far.  When shutdowns first started becoming widespread, the US death toll was under 300, yet a huge number of Americans were unquestioningly in agreement.  That's what's so perplexing.

Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
Four possibilities on masks:
1. Government is right on masks and you wear a mask - you have helped stopped the spread of disease
2. Government is right on masks and you do not wear a mask - you have willfully endangered other people
3. Government is wrong on masks and you wear a mask - you've been somewhat inconvenienced for no reason
4. Government is wrong on masks and you don't wear a mask - no effect one way or another

The worst case downside for wearing a mask is that you're doing something that is somewhat annoying for no reason and are inconvenienced by that. This is not a significant sacrifice.

The best case upside for wearing a mask is that you're actively saving lives.

Based on that game theory, it makes sense to wear a mask.
--

Four possibilities on protests:
1. There is a systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you support protests to resolve - you have raised awareness of an issue and have helped to save lives
2. There is a systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you do not support protests to resolve - you are a racist
3. There is no systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you support protests to resolve - there is some unnecessary graffiti/property damage
4. There is no systemic racism problem that leads to people dying and you do not support protests to resolve - no effect

The worst case scenario for protesting is that we end up with some property damage that can be repaired.
The best case scenario for protesting is that you're actively saving lives.

Based on that game theory, it makes sense to support protests.

--

At least to me, that's why willfully disregarding government to protest perceived racism is a far more noble pursuit than willfully disregarding government to protest perceived inconvenience(?) for having to wear a mask.

This seems to suggest two things:

(1)  People should always wear masks, forever until the end of their days.  The best case scenario will always be saving lives, and the worst case scenario will always be slight inconvenience–even if the government and scientists aren't declaring an active emergency.

(2)  People should always protest racism in every context, whether there is evidence of it or not.  The best and worse case scenarios will remain the same, so what's the harm?

I find neither suggestion palatable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 04:07:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:01:01 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 03:49:46 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
Yes, exactly.  Willingness to bend the knee to the government is hailed as our duty in the context of and in the name of stopping COVID, while such willingness is derided in other contexts.  The willingness to follow government directives in one area of life and the unwillingness in other areas of life–especially by the same individuals–is perplexing to me.

Is it really?  We have a pandemic that has killed over 120,000 Americans, and we have a way to slow the spread of that pandemic, and you wonder why people think a government recommendation should be followed?

I mean, in three months this disease has killed about four times as many people who die in OWI accidents in a year.  Do you question why people "bend the knee to the government" and follow drunk driving laws?

People's cow-like willingness to follow directives started long before the death toll rose this far.  When shutdowns first started becoming widespread, the US death toll was under 300, yet a huge number of Americans were unquestioningly in agreement.  That's what's so perplexing.


Not really.  They saw what was happening in Europe and didn't want that to happen here.

And you know what?  Europeans, who trust their governments more than we do, have done a much better job in dealing with this virus than we have.  It's not a coincidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on June 23, 2020, 04:07:35 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 03:46:29 PM
People closer to me don't seem to have any problem with folks not wearing masks.  Most people in Wichita, in my experience, don't wear them, and nobody gets upset by that.  Meanwhile, people on the other side of the country on this forum–people I'll probably never even meet in real life–seem to have a problem with my not wearing a mask.

Most people will rarely interact in public with others with entirely different opinions, anyhow. It's considered rude...whatever tone is set by the public generally keeps things civil. Besides, there's always the threat it works against the agitator. There's other stuff to do than try to turn around everyone's view points when you're buying groceries or trying to repair your toilet. So you don't know if someone is or isn't judging you for not wearing a mask, nor cares one way nor another.

That's why we lambast each other on the internet.

Sports team fanaticism is kind of the mysterious exception: someone will be rude pretty much anywhere on earth in which silence is not required nor expected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 04:07:29 PM
Not really.  They saw what was happening in Europe and didn't want that to happen here.

And you know what?  Europeans, who trust their governments more than we do, have done a much better job in dealing with this virus than we have.  It's not a coincidence.

Then, back to HB's point:  Why isn't everyone encouraging people to "trust their government" in other aspects of life right now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 23, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 04:07:29 PM
Not really.  They saw what was happening in Europe and didn't want that to happen here.

And you know what?  Europeans, who trust their governments more than we do, have done a much better job in dealing with this virus than we have.  It's not a coincidence.

Then, back to HB's point:  Why isn't everyone encouraging people to "trust their government" in other aspects of life right now?

I think people have a hard time distinguishing between political and non-political functions of government. Health, scientific and statistical functions of government are non-political (no matter how much any one person might try to make it so) and should not be met with the level of skepticism that is rightly leveled against political functions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 04:20:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 04:07:29 PM
Not really.  They saw what was happening in Europe and didn't want that to happen here.

And you know what?  Europeans, who trust their governments more than we do, have done a much better job in dealing with this virus than we have.  It's not a coincidence.

Then, back to HB's point:  Why isn't everyone encouraging people to "trust their government" in other aspects of life right now?
Because there are different reasons to believe in things. I trust government that I better pay the taxes because the government has some nice ways to encourage me doing the right thing.  I trust the government that my car needs to go through that recall because I somewhat trust professionals, namely manufacturer's engineers who discovered and fixed the problem  - and the government is just a messenger here. I trust  government when they say that drunk driving is bad because of those two reasons combined. 
There may be other reasons to trust; but plainly being elected official is NOT on the list.
I trust the government when they say that drunk driving is bad because of those two seasons combined. 
I don't really trust the government that maximum speed on the road to work is 65 MPH, though,  despite them trying to convince me using some nice cars with beautiful flashes.

In the case of masks, I don't trust government per se, I trust professional opinion which coincides with my understanding of things. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:22:47 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on June 23, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
I think people have a hard time distinguishing between political and non-political functions of government. Health, scientific and statistical functions of government are non-political (no matter how much any one person might try to make it so) and should not be met with the level of skepticism that is rightly leveled against political functions.

Couldn't it also be argued that the police is a non-political function of the government?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 23, 2020, 04:23:45 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on June 23, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 04:07:29 PM
Not really.  They saw what was happening in Europe and didn't want that to happen here.

And you know what?  Europeans, who trust their governments more than we do, have done a much better job in dealing with this virus than we have.  It's not a coincidence.

Then, back to HB's point:  Why isn't everyone encouraging people to "trust their government" in other aspects of life right now?

I think people have a hard time distinguishing between political and non-political functions of government. Health, scientific and statistical functions of government are non-political (no matter how much any one person might try to make it so) and should not be met with the level of skepticism that is rightly leveled against political functions.
Well, as in the example above - speed limits are supposed to be a non-political function, but people tend not to trust those numbers...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 23, 2020, 04:25:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:22:47 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on June 23, 2020, 04:13:09 PM
I think people have a hard time distinguishing between political and non-political functions of government. Health, scientific and statistical functions of government are non-political (no matter how much any one person might try to make it so) and should not be met with the level of skepticism that is rightly leveled against political functions.

Couldn't it also be argued that the police is a non-political function of the government?

In theory it should be, but it clearly isn't. Police unions spend millions of dollars lobbying politicians. There are no statistician unions doing anything similar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 23, 2020, 04:28:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:01:01 PM
This seems to suggest two things:

(1)  People should always wear masks, forever until the end of their days.  The best case scenario will always be saving lives, and the worst case scenario will always be slight inconvenience—even if the government and scientists aren't declaring an active emergency.

(2)  People should always protest racism in every context, whether there is evidence of it or not.  The best and worse case scenarios will remain the same, so what's the harm?

I find neither suggestion palatable.

That's the ol' slippery slope fallacy - to look at this as something that will always be valid is to again ignore context.

All but the fringiest parts of society are in alignment on two things right now:
1. We're in a pandemic. While there may be wildly varying ideas perspectives on how to handle the pandemic (ranging from total lockdown to "accept the deaths and have business as usual"), I think the one thing pretty much everybody agrees on is that we are in a pandemic.

2. The way George Floyd died was both well documented and unnecessary. Regardless of if you think there's systemic racism or it was just one bad incident or whatever, I don't think it's in dispute that he didn't commit a capital offense and therefore did not deserve to die the way he did.

--

The question then becomes "okay so what do we do about it," which makes the conversations about protests and masks valid. If we weren't in the middle of a pandemic the argument to wear a mask probably does get into the situation where the potential cost/benefit of the inconvenience outweighs any negligible life savings and the conversation shifts entirely. Society quantifies the value of human life all the time - otherwise we wouldn't have cars, for instance, so it's not like "the safest action always wins" or something.

The racism/protest one does admittedly get a lot more complicated and I'm not even really sure it's my place to address that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:48:03 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 04:28:31 PM
The racism/protest one does admittedly get a lot more complicated and I'm not even really sure it's my place to address that.

It's best left out of this thread anyway.

Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 04:28:31 PM
Society quantifies the value of human life all the time - otherwise we wouldn't have cars, for instance, so it's not like "the safest action always wins" or something.

And "society" isn't quantifying COVID-related things uniformly either.  I think no ill of people who evaluate the situation and choose to wear a mask every time they go out, nor people who only wear one in certain specific circumstances, nor people who haven't worn a mask a single time since this whole thing began.  I tend toward choosing to afford each person the decency of making his or her own decisions in life.  Each person's values, experiences, outlook, and background are unique to that person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on June 23, 2020, 05:39:56 PM
Phase 3 of VA's reopening plan begins July 1.

https://www.wdbj7.com/2020/06/23/governor-set-to-speak-as-va-coronavirus-cases/ (https://www.wdbj7.com/2020/06/23/governor-set-to-speak-as-va-coronavirus-cases/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 23, 2020, 05:42:46 PM
The problem is that in this case your decision can negatively–and potentially fatally–impact people you don't know.

Consider the following as given for the purposes of a scenario:
1. Bob has COVID-19 and is currently highly contagious, but asymptomatic. Because Bob is asymptomatic, he has no reason to believe that he will test positive for the virus, so he has not sought a test.
2. Bob has access to a theoretical face mask that traps 100% of outgoing coronaviruses. Bob cannot infect anyone else when wearing this mask.
3. Bob needs to go to the grocery store, which contains several other customers of varying risk levels of death from COVID-19.

How could we possibly afford Bob the luxury of making his own choice on whether to wear the mask or not? And what benefit does that give us as a society? "Mildred ended up dead because of Bob's choice, but her death is worth it because it means Bob got to make his own decision?"

I cannot subscribe to such rubbish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 23, 2020, 05:50:48 PM
I saw on the news that an official in Los Angeles said that the George Floyd protests might be tied to a rise in COVID cases in southern California.

Michigan has been averaging around 200 new cases a day for the last couple of weeks, and that's with them administering around 10,000 (or more) tests per day. In early April, Michigan was third in the number of total cases (behind only New York and New Jersey). Now, Michigan is ninth (if you count probable cases, which some sources use) or 11th (if counting just confirmed cases).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 23, 2020, 05:55:59 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 23, 2020, 05:50:48 PM
I saw on the news that an official in Los Angeles said that the George Floyd protests might be tied to a rise in COVID cases in southern California.

The problem is that the timing of the Floyd protests coincided with the opening of businesses in a lot of places, so people can argue for political purposes that it's the protests causing it, rather than the easing of lockdown restrictions.

Oklahoma opened early, on May 1, and Rt crossed 1.0 on May 13.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 07:25:29 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 23, 2020, 05:42:46 PM
The problem is that in this case your decision can negatively–and potentially fatally–impact people you don't know.

Consider the following as given for the purposes of a scenario:
1. Bob has COVID-19 and is currently highly contagious, but asymptomatic. Because Bob is asymptomatic, he has no reason to believe that he will test positive for the virus, so he has not sought a test.
2. Bob has access to a theoretical face mask that traps 100% of outgoing coronaviruses. Bob cannot infect anyone else when wearing this mask.
3. Bob needs to go to the grocery store, which contains several other customers of varying risk levels of death from COVID-19.

How could we possibly afford Bob the luxury of making his own choice on whether to wear the mask or not? And what benefit does that give us as a society? "Mildred ended up dead because of Bob's choice, but her death is worth it because it means Bob got to make his own decision?"

I cannot subscribe to such rubbish.

Quote from: kphoger on June 23, 2020, 04:08:49 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 23, 2020, 04:07:29 PM
Not really.  They saw what was happening in Europe and didn't want that to happen here.

And you know what?  Europeans, who trust their governments more than we do, have done a much better job in dealing with this virus than we have.  It's not a coincidence.

Then, back to HB's point:  Why isn't everyone encouraging people to "trust their government" in other aspects of life right now?
Imagine if you were Bob?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 08:13:53 PM
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 12:30:29 PM
To me the question really comes down to "Do you believe that public health officials are acting in good faith to make their communities a better place or do you believe that public health officials have some nefarious secondary agenda?" I choose to believe the former.
Quote from: corco on June 23, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
As a patriotic American, I care about my country, and so I'm always going to be more sympathetic to those who are trying to collectively improve their community than those who are trying to avoid individual inconvenience.

Well put and not only do I agree wholeheartedly, I think it's a nice bow on the past 2-3 pages of discussion that increasingly seems to be going in circles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 23, 2020, 08:22:23 PM
One lesson from the pandemic: We do need a "nanny state" because we're a bunch of children who  can't follow basic suggestions.

Washington is starting a mandatory mask order on Friday because cases are spiking again, mostly in conservative areas, and the risk of spreading it to the rest of the state is very high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 09:36:18 PM
Personally I don't think if I wasn't one of the people was put in charge of Virus response at work then I don't think that I really would been paying much mind to COVID.  It felt that in my situation I was more or less just trying to stop people from panicking when there wasn't any answers.  To that end I really don't know if I was successful but I thought if I showed panic or fear people would pick up on that.  Now things kind of feel normal aside from some stuff like the massive amounts of cleaning and masks. 

In my day to day life I can really only control what I do (and to some degree my immediate family).  In that regard I have followed the rules proscribed to me through out the pandemic, even the ones I absolutely hated.  The gyms closing and not being able to go most of my favorite outdoor locales got to me the most by far.  I guess things like this really are relative to the individual but I felt like was pretty easily able to mildly adjust and move on with life in a couple weeks.  Generally I've usually kept to myself anyways and really that hasn't been altered at all through out the Coronavirus response. 

As this all wears on I don't find myself as compelled to get worked up over what is in the news or what others might/might not be doing.  I've started to tune out all the back and forth as just background noise.  Not even news stories these days are really offering anything enlightening about the Coronavirus anymore.  It's been a couple weeks in fact since I've even looked at local case statistics.  I guess that I don't really feel there is a lot of value in debates anymore or trying to convince people to see things a certain way.  It might be something of Sunnydale syndrome on my part but I guess that's where I'm at on what others are doing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:09:20 PM
Quote from: Bruce on June 23, 2020, 08:22:23 PM
One lesson from the pandemic: We do need a "nanny state" because we're a bunch of children who  can't follow basic suggestions.

Washington is starting a mandatory mask order on Friday because cases are spiking again, mostly in conservative areas, and the risk of spreading it to the rest of the state is very high.
You don't magically become mature when you turn 18.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:12:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:09:20 PM
You don't magically become mature when you turn 18.

Well, you figured that out before turning 18, so that's a step in the right direction!!  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:13:29 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:12:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:09:20 PM
You don't magically become mature when you turn 18.

Well, you figured that out before turning 18, so that's a step in the right direction!!  :D
I know adults
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:18:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:13:29 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:12:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:09:20 PM
You don't magically become mature when you turn 18.

Well, you figured that out before turning 18, so that's a step in the right direction!!  :D
I know adults

Personally, or just in general?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 11:40:42 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:18:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:13:29 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:12:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:09:20 PM
You don't magically become mature when you turn 18.

Well, you figured that out before turning 18, so that's a step in the right direction!!  :D
I know adults

Personally, or just in general?
Well I know that some adults are immature
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:52:16 AM
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/mongolian-government-donates-ppe-us-help-fight-covid-19/FNNQGLZ4ARG4RIUGQSCRQOVAKM/
https://akipress.com/news:643974:Mongolia_delivers_$1_million_humanitarian_aid_to_United_States/

You know...just follow the procedures. America used to be the envy of the world, and while the loudest piece of our national leadership tells us "the worst is behind us" and "this is all over" and disparages those who wear masks, the federal government is also quietly accepting foreign aid from countries like Mongolia. With all due respect to the good people of Mongolia, it's entirely a disgrace that we aren't leaders in this and are in this position.

The rest of the developed, free world more or less listened to their scientists and wore masks and stayed home, and their case rates are in steep decline as they open back up. We're not, because we're a bunch of toddlers that can't be bothered to put a piece of cloth over our face to go to Kroger and make some sacrifices for the good of our community.

We're becoming the laughingstock of the world while our national leaders fiddle away. I am heartbroken over what has happened to our once great country. Freedom comes with responsibility and duty to community and I'm ashamed and embarassed that huge parts of our country have forgotten that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 08:57:52 AM
Let's see which places haven't gotten the first wave yet:

Erie, PA
Northern New England (Burlington VT recently had a quick spike but not a full wave)
West Virginia and nearby portions of adjacent states, excluding the area of Virginia near DC (includes Pittsburgh)
Montana
Oregon, although it might be beginning now
Northeast quadrant of Minnesota, UP of Michigan, and the part of Wisconsin in between
Southern half of Missouri except Northwest Arkansas adjacent
Non-factory, non-Kansas City places in Kansas, unless it's just starting now
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 24, 2020, 09:03:59 AM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 08:57:52 AM
Let's see which places haven't gotten the first wave yet:

Erie, PA
Northern New England (Burlington VT recently had a quick spike but not a full wave)
West Virginia and nearby portions of adjacent states, excluding the area of Virginia near DC (includes Pittsburgh)
Montana
Oregon, although it might be beginning now
Northeast quadrant of Minnesota, UP of Michigan, and the part of Wisconsin in between
Southern half of Missouri except Northwest Arkansas adjacent
Non-factory, non-Kansas City places in Kansas, unless it's just starting now
So essentially very rural areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 09:22:52 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 24, 2020, 09:03:59 AM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 08:57:52 AM
...
Erie, PA
So essentially very rural areas.

PennDOT disagrees, given the 55 mph "urban area" speed limit on I-90.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 10:17:51 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 11:40:42 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:18:15 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:13:29 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 23, 2020, 10:12:29 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 23, 2020, 10:09:20 PM
You don't magically become mature when you turn 18.

Well, you figured that out before turning 18, so that's a step in the right direction!!  :D
I know adults

Personally, or just in general?
Well I know that some adults are immature
I know a few who may be mature, but I am not 100% sure..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 23, 2020, 05:42:46 PM
How could we possibly afford Bob the luxury of making his own choice on whether to wear the mask or not? And what benefit does that give us as a society?

Your typed the answer.  The benefit to society is that Bob gets to make his own choice.  That's called liberty, and I believe it's a fundamentally noble thing for a nation to afford its citizens.

Quote from: Bruce on June 23, 2020, 08:22:23 PM
One lesson from the pandemic: We do need a "nanny state"

One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.




Some observations from having been to church for corporate worship for the first time since early March:

(1)  Because our congregation is currently using a space with movable seats, the distance between rows was easily increased.  This was incredibly handy, considering that childcare hasn't started up yet, because it allowed little kids to sit on the floor and draw.  Our family was sitting with a very good friend and her daughter;  our youngest son and her daughter were able to sit right in front of us during the whole sermon and share colored pencils.  Our son was even practicing his writing by copying words from the projection screen.  It was awesome!

(2)  The large majority of people weren't wearing masks, but most people still kept a reasonable distance when greeting each other.  Apparently–and I guess I didn't realize it until this thread–this means most folks at my church are terrible, immature people who have blatant disregard for the well-being of others and have no idea what it means to be a responsible adult.  How could I have not noticed that until now?

(3)  Some people have a hard time maintaining distance, even when greeting someone who is likely to be more worried about viral spread than they.  It's one thing to wait for one person to say "Oh who cares give me a hug" and then close the gap, but it's another thing to just walk right up to someone and start talking.  Those people tend to be loud and exuberant talkers, too.

(4)  A lot of those who did wear masks took them off for singing.  While that's understandable, I did think it was rather counterproductive to remove a mask during the specific time when one would be expelling the most droplets into the air.

(5)  No coffee, tea, or ice water provided–in the name of sanitation.  This was no problem for me because I knew ahead of time, so I made some tea before leaving home and put it in a thermos.  Church coffee is really more of a social thing than a pick-me-up thing anyway, I think:  I'm sure nearly everyone has already had their cup before they ever show up to church.

(6)  Even though childcare hasn't started up yet, the church still provided a DIY diaper changing room, a nursing mothers room, and a "coloring room" for kids who are no longer toddlers but still need to "wiggle" sometimes.  I thought that latter idea was a great one, and one I probably would never have thought to implement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 11:24:21 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.
Well, there are situations when people must join forces and act together. Wars, fires, floods, well - pandemics.
Would you insist on your freedom to dig through the levee when everyone else tries to build it up and avoid flood?  Well, thanks to Second amendment, some of us would have something to say about it..
Freedom only works when people have some inner feeling of good and bad. Once your idea of freedom starts to go past some line - killing others for no good reason is the most universal example - it ends. In this case, you may argue what is good and what is bad. That would be at least a subject to discussion. But you argue the basic concept. Let me remind you:
QuoteWe hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 23, 2020, 05:42:46 PM
How could we possibly afford Bob the luxury of making his own choice on whether to wear the mask or not? And what benefit does that give us as a society?
Your typed the answer.  The benefit to society is that Bob gets to make his own choice.  That's called liberty, and I believe it's a fundamentally noble thing for a nation to afford its citizens.

That may be, but willingness to be inconvenienced for the health and safety of one's fellow-citizens is a much more noble thing for a citizen to afford their nation.


Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.

It's not about freedom. I very much value freedom, I just happen to value the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank, or the grocery store, much more than I value the freedom of not wearing a mask. It's a trade-off I'm more than willing to make for a restored sense of normalcy. This really has nothing to do with the government, so leave that out of the picture for a minute. This is about understanding what's right for society, and being willing to do it.

I get the feeling that we may just have to wait until there's a bad outbreak in every corner of the country before this starts to sink in.
Not to sound self-righteous here, but I'm quite proud of upstate New York for being one of the only areas of the country to adopt mask-wearing as the norm before getting hit badly by the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 24, 2020, 11:39:59 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.


This really is an absurd statement.  If anything, we love our personal freedom to our detriment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 11:24:21 AM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.

Well, there are situations when people must join forces and act together. Wars, fires, floods, well - pandemics.
Would you insist on your freedom to dig through the levee when everyone else tries to build it up and avoid flood?  Well, thanks to Second amendment, some of us would have something to say about it..
Freedom only works when people have some inner feeling of good and bad. Once your idea of freedom starts to go past some line - killing others for no good reason is the most universal example - it ends. In this case, you may argue what is good and what is bad. That would be at least a subject to discussion. But you argue the basic concept. Let me remind you:

QuoteWe hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed


So you don't see a fundamental difference between (a) committing an act that directly leads to destruction and loss of property and life, and (b) not taking a certain step that would slightly help avoid the potential of inadvertently leading to loss of health or life?  Those two things are equivalent to you and should be treated equally?

Also, thank you for quoting the portion of the Declaration that identifies liberty as an unalienable right.




Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
That may be, but willingness to be inconvenienced for the health and safety of one's fellow-citizens is a much more noble thing for a citizen to afford their nation.

Did I at some point say I don't wear a mask because I consider it an inconvenience?  I don't remember saying that.  What I have said is that I think the benefits of wearing one are overstated.  I rarely find myself in any situation in which I consider the risk I might pose to be in any way significant.  When I anticipate being somewhere that entails confined spaces and little opportunity for proper personal space, then I take a mask along with me.  So far, I've only found myself in one situation where I genuinely believed a mask was appropriately required.

Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
It's not about freedom. I very much value freedom, I just happen to value the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank, or the grocery store, much more than I value the freedom of not wearing a mask. It's a trade-off I'm more than willing to make for a restored sense of normalcy.

I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
This really has nothing to do with the government, so leave that out of the picture for a minute. This is about understanding what's right for society, and being willing to do it.

As I've said, most people around here don't believe wearing a mask everywhere is "what's right for society", and neither do I.  I guess things are different wear you live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 24, 2020, 11:48:28 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 11:24:21 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.
Well, there are situations when people must join forces and act together. Wars, fires, floods, well - pandemics.
Would you insist on your freedom to dig through the levee when everyone else tries to build it up and avoid flood?  Well, thanks to Second amendment, some of us would have something to say about it..
Freedom only works when people have some inner feeling of good and bad. Once your idea of freedom starts to go past some line - killing others for no good reason is the most universal example - it ends. In this case, you may argue what is good and what is bad. That would be at least a subject to discussion. But you argue the basic concept. Let me remind you:
QuoteWe hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed



I think the modern interpretation of "freedom" has gotten absurdly skewed - "freedom" isn't just the ability to do whatever the hell you want without regard for the the well-being for others if you want to.

Our founders envisioned "freedom" as freedom from an unjust, unelected king - as a new country we were "free" because we had the ability to elect our own leaders and form our own government and use representative democracy to choose how we would be governed. "Freedom" was never intended to be freedom from government or freedom from community responsibility. 

I hate what Bruce said but don't totally disagree with it. I don't want us to have to mandate masks - I think that's stupid and is counterthetical to what we should stand for as Americans. But if we don't mandate masks that requires us to all take our civic duty seriously and follow consensus science and data and the leadership of the public health officials that we pay for with our tax dollars and protect our neighbors by making the conscious, patriotic choice to rally around a common cause and wear a mask.

I guess what irks me is we know what we need to do to get cases down to a manageable level and not have a bunch of people die - developed, free (and admittedly some not-so-free) countries all around the world are pulling that off. But we're too stubborn about some ill-defined principles or something to just rally together and follow that same formula, and that's heart-breaking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: roadman65 on June 24, 2020, 11:57:34 AM
Plus you have way too many stubborn people and know it all types that will refuse to wear it and cannot be enforced so it is no good.  Those who wear the masks (well most of them) will wear them regardless if it is a mandate or not up until the medical community accepts a drug that can cure this disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on June 24, 2020, 11:57:34 AM
until the medical community accepts a drug that can cure this disease.

What is the latest on that?  I haven't seen any articles lately about it, plus I'm trying to distance myself from a lot of the news lately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 11:24:21 AM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.

Well, there are situations when people must join forces and act together. Wars, fires, floods, well - pandemics.
Would you insist on your freedom to dig through the levee when everyone else tries to build it up and avoid flood?  Well, thanks to Second amendment, some of us would have something to say about it..
Freedom only works when people have some inner feeling of good and bad. Once your idea of freedom starts to go past some line - killing others for no good reason is the most universal example - it ends. In this case, you may argue what is good and what is bad. That would be at least a subject to discussion. But you argue the basic concept. Let me remind you:

QuoteWe hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed


So you don't see a fundamental difference between (a) committing an act that directly leads to destruction and loss of property and life, and (b) not taking a certain step that would slightly help avoid the potential of inadvertently leading to loss of health or life?  Those two things are equivalent to you and should be treated equally?

Also, thank you for quoting the portion of the Declaration that identifies liberty as an unalienable right.

SO you're backing up from "we don't need no government" to "do you think it worth it"?
That's a big step  in the right direction!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:11:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.


Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Did I at some point say I don't wear a mask because I consider it an inconvenience?  I don't remember saying that.  What I have said is that I think the benefits of wearing one are overstated.  I rarely find myself in any situation in which I consider the risk I might pose to be in any way significant.
...
As I've said, most people around here don't believe wearing a mask everywhere is "what's right for society", and neither do I.  I guess things are different wear you live.

Pun aside, intentional or otherwise, yes, I think things are different where I live, not least because there have been 31,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in New York state. That was part of the reason I included those last two sentences:

Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
I get the feeling that we may just have to wait until there's a bad outbreak in every corner of the country before this starts to sink in.
Not to sound self-righteous here, but I'm quite proud of upstate New York for being one of the only areas of the country to adopt mask-wearing as the norm before getting hit badly by the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:12:49 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
SO you're backing up from "we don't need no government" to ...

When did I say that?

I absolutely believe we need a government.  And the government should pass laws prohibiting people from actively harming others, as well as punish people who do so.

But this isn't that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 12:14:16 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:11:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.

Only in some states. It's true where I live, but not where kphoger lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 24, 2020, 12:14:40 PM
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/tri-state-to-require-visitors-from-covid-hotspots-to-quarantine/2482284/

I wish that the Northeast could shut the border with the south. I don't want people coming from Florida ruining our progress.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 12:17:14 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 24, 2020, 12:14:40 PM
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/tri-state-to-require-visitors-from-covid-hotspots-to-quarantine/2482284/

I wish that the Northeast could shut the border with the south. I don't want people coming from Florida ruining our progress.

And what about the people that work across wherever you put the border?

(Looking at the NYTimes map, the border would be somewhere near Richmond, but that doesn't affect my statement above in any way.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: roadman65 on June 24, 2020, 12:19:52 PM
I went to school for communication and learned how people nowadays get their news from FB and Twitter over traditional sources.   When Whitney Houston died, our teacher wanted to know how we found out about it.  We as a class said we heard it on the internet.

He used that to prove how this day and age no one watches the news not like before and he was not being political either.  He was implying what others on here in another thread about malls and radio being dead these days due to the Skynet.

If doom comes it would probably not be believed unless someone close by gets it as to many the news and social media is like the boy crying wolf lately. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: roadman65 on June 24, 2020, 12:21:07 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 24, 2020, 12:14:40 PM
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/tri-state-to-require-visitors-from-covid-hotspots-to-quarantine/2482284/

I wish that the Northeast could shut the border with the south. I don't want people coming from Florida ruining our progress.
Then Cuomo needs to stop driving them into the south in his plight to make all of his state blue.  Then the greedy developers here are more than welcome the refugees from New York to buy their condos and homes and add more traffic to a state that has no new roads and needs more road expansions to accommodate Dick Scott's plan to develop for jobs and kill the farms to do it.  He is out but his wrath survives his leaving Tallahassee.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:23:44 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:14:16 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:11:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.
There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.
Only in some states. It's true where I live, but not where kphoger lives.

Yes, that was my point, but I see where the confusion came in: I was saying "here" in reference to my location, not "here" as in this thread.

Here (in Upstate NY) I do have to wear a mask, but I think it's worth it if places can reopen, and doing it doesn't mean I am against freedom or want the government to always tell me what to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 12:26:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:12:49 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
SO you're backing up from "we don't need no government" to ...

When did I say that?

I absolutely believe we need a government.  And the government should pass laws prohibiting people from actively harming others, as well as punish people who do so.

But this isn't that.
Well, so the only difference between us is that you have your own opinion about good and bad things  - you don't deny government right to mandate things?
Think about it in terms of flood, levee, and some idiot who thinks having some water flowing by his home would make a great sight. 
Once we're on the same page, the only question is how much enforcement can be put into the regulation...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: roadman65 on June 24, 2020, 12:32:39 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:23:44 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:14:16 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:11:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.
There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.
Only in some states. It's true where I live, but not where kphoger lives.

Yes, that was my point, but I see where the confusion came in: I was saying "here" in reference to my location, not "here" as in this thread.

Here (in Upstate NY) I do have to wear a mask, but I think it's worth it if places can reopen, and doing it doesn't mean I am against freedom or want the government to always tell me what to do.
I do not like this whole thing and nothing against these as much as we do not have time to weigh in on this whole thing.  I for one do not trust the news as that they care more about their own survival, however it is what it is. This could not happen at a worse time as its an election year so it is politsized out of control and rumors fly so fast it surpasses the speed of sound.  People believe it and many get upset.

Plus people still can get it with masks on.  If you fail to wash your masks and touch your face to fix the falling masks and that is if youhave the money to afford these masks as they are $35 for a box of 50.   Plus gloves are only good if you switch them out regurlally as the germs stay on them once you touch a foreign object.  Then many itch their eyes with the gloves too which is the same as using your bare hands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:33:32 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:11:34 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Did I at some point say I don't wear a mask because I consider it an inconvenience?  I don't remember saying that.  What I have said is that I think the benefits of wearing one are overstated.  I rarely find myself in any situation in which I consider the risk I might pose to be in any way significant.
...
As I've said, most people around here don't believe wearing a mask everywhere is "what's right for society", and neither do I.  I guess things are different wear you live.

Pun aside, intentional or otherwise, yes, I think things are different where I live, not least because there have been 31,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in New York state. That was part of the reason I included those last two sentences:

Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
I get the feeling that we may just have to wait until there's a bad outbreak in every corner of the country before this starts to sink in.
Not to sound self-righteous here, but I'm quite proud of upstate New York for being one of the only areas of the country to adopt mask-wearing as the norm before getting hit badly by the pandemic.


It was unintentional.  :)

If you admit that the pandemic is not equal from one part of the country to another, then why do you insist that people's actions be the same in all parts of the country?  To illustrate what I mean, take a look at the map below.

(https://i.imgur.com/ndc5lfW.png)

In those 22 counties outlined, there have only been a combined 69 cases TOTAL.  One-third of those counties haven't recorded a single case of COVID.  Why would you demand that those residents' actions be the same as, say, Sullivan County (NY), which has two-thirds the population but 21 times the COVID cases?  That makes no sense to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 12:40:54 PM
Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 12:41:54 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:33:32 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 12:11:34 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Did I at some point say I don't wear a mask because I consider it an inconvenience?  I don't remember saying that.  What I have said is that I think the benefits of wearing one are overstated.  I rarely find myself in any situation in which I consider the risk I might pose to be in any way significant.
...
As I've said, most people around here don't believe wearing a mask everywhere is "what's right for society", and neither do I.  I guess things are different wear you live.

Pun aside, intentional or otherwise, yes, I think things are different where I live, not least because there have been 31,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in New York state. That was part of the reason I included those last two sentences:

Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
I get the feeling that we may just have to wait until there's a bad outbreak in every corner of the country before this starts to sink in.
Not to sound self-righteous here, but I'm quite proud of upstate New York for being one of the only areas of the country to adopt mask-wearing as the norm before getting hit badly by the pandemic.


It was unintentional.  :)

If you admit that the pandemic is not equal from one part of the country to another, then why do you insist that people's actions be the same in all parts of the country?  To illustrate what I mean, take a look at the map below.

In those 22 counties outlined, there have only been a combined 69 cases TOTAL.  One-third of those counties haven't recorded a single case of COVID.  Why would you demand that those residents' actions be the same as, say, Sullivan County (NY), which has two-thirds the population but 21 times the COVID cases?  That makes no sense to me.

I would say a pretty valid argument. However, experience show that one infected person can pass virus to 1000 others - that actually happened in Korea. This can mean that great statistics can be ruined pretty fast.
Bigger US cities already learned the lesson on being arrogant - remember "it can only happen in dirty China, not in US"?  Guess what would come next...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:44:03 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:40:54 PM
Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 24, 2020, 12:44:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:33:32 PMIn those 22 counties outlined, there have only been a combined 69 cases TOTAL.  One-third of those counties haven't recorded a single case of COVID.  Why would you demand that those residents' actions be the same as, say, Sullivan County (NY), which has two-thirds the population but 21 times the COVID cases?  That makes no sense to me.

The situation in northwestern Kansas is nowhere near a crisis--we are still having a mask debate here in Sedgwick County as hospitalizations have doubled in the past week and keep on climbing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:44:03 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:40:54 PM
Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:48:00 PM
Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:46:08 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:44:03 PM

Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:40:54 PM
Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?

I don't recall if that was ever determined.

So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:48:00 PM
Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:46:08 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:44:03 PM

Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:40:54 PM
Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner — it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?

I don't recall if that was ever determined.

So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?

My thinking is twofold:

1) We're already seeing how this thing moves around and migrates from community to community. We don't know when it will hit NW Kansas, but it's nearly certain that it will. Best to be prepared and on the defensive.

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 12:52:59 PM
Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 12:26:46 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:12:49 PM

Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
SO you're backing up from "we don't need no government" to ...

When did I say that?

I absolutely believe we need a government.  And the government should pass laws prohibiting people from actively harming others, as well as punish people who do so.

But this isn't that.

Well, so the only difference between us is that you have your own opinion about good and bad things  - you don't deny government right to mandate things?
Think about it in terms of flood, levee, and some idiot who thinks having some water flowing by his home would make a great sight. 
Once we're on the same page, the only question is how much enforcement can be put into the regulation...

Nope.  You think the two things are equivalent, and I don't.

Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:48:00 PM
So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?

My thinking is twofold:

1) We're already seeing how this thing moves around and migrates from community to community. We don't know when it will hit NW Kansas, but it's nearly certain that it will. Best to be prepared and on the defensive.

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

So, the answer is yes.

Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:52:59 PM

Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 01:02:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:48:00 PM
Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:46:08 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:44:03 PM

Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:40:54 PM
Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?

I don't recall if that was ever determined.

So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?

Not that they have to - but they may regret that later.
On the other hand, its pretty likely that we'll end up in a situation when everyone would get sick sooner or later.  So it doesn't matter that much overall, and any suppression of infection rates is temporary only. 
Catch-22 at its best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 01:07:46 PM
(Dang, knew I'd lose my short window to reply without quoting...)

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:52:59 PM
I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.
Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.

Probably because things are very county-centric in the rural Midwest, with spread emanating from the county seat and not necessarily a whole lot of travel between counties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 01:15:44 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 01:07:46 PM
(Dang, knew I'd lose my short window to reply without quoting...)

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:59:07 PM

Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:52:59 PM
I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.

Probably because things are very county-centric in the rural Midwest, with spread emanating from the county seat and not necessarily a whole lot of travel between counties.

I haven't been following county-specific data outside of Kansas.

1, have you noticed a difference between Midwestern states and states in other regions in that regard?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 01:27:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 01:15:44 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 01:07:46 PM
(Dang, knew I'd lose my short window to reply without quoting...)

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:59:07 PM

Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 12:52:59 PM
I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.

Probably because things are very county-centric in the rural Midwest, with spread emanating from the county seat and not necessarily a whole lot of travel between counties.

I haven't been following county-specific data outside of Kansas.

1, have you noticed a difference between Midwestern states and states in other regions in that regard?

It appears that only the Midwest, extended to AR and TN, has single-county spikes, although the NE/IA border area does spread to nearby counties. In the Northeast and the rest of the South, cases are high or low as a region, with similar numbers in adjacent counties, but you also don't have the "1 in 18 infected" like you see in Ford County, KS. The West doesn't have any extremely high numbers per capita except for some counties on the NM/AZ border that are highly Native American, and that particular area has similar numbers throughout.

Remember the Georgia funeral about two months back? That one definitely spread to adjacent counties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 01:28:17 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 09:29:22 AM
We are nowhere near herd immunity.

(https://images.newscientist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/17143834/200620_n_seroprevalanceweb.jpg)


Does anyone know where those numbers came from?  There have been about 2.4 million confirmed cases in the USA, and the CDC estimates that 35% of cases are asymptomatic.  With a national population of 328 million, how does that math work out to ~6% of the population having been infected?  Is it because there has been a huge number of symptomatic cases that were never confirmed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 24, 2020, 01:35:09 PM
Since early May there has been about an 8 fold increase in daily cases in Arizona and the percentage of positive tests have tripled.  Yet the 7-day average of daily deaths in Arizona is lower today than it was in early May.  According to the data there has been a month long outbreak in Arizona yet we aren't seeing a new high in deaths.  Similar trends are starting to be seen in Florida, Texas and California.  Some theories to why we aren't seeing increases in deaths:

1.  A disproportionate number of young and healthy people are catching the virus now compared to early in the pandemic (not totally buying this argument).
2.  The virus has mutated and has become less deadly.
3.  The people who are getting infected may be experiencing less viral load due to preventative measures instituted by our government (social distancing/face masks).
4.  Treatments are getting better and hospital care is improving.
5.  The data is just all F@#$@ up and nothing can be trusted.

(https://i.imgur.com/GlkmDet.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 01:36:49 PM
6. Deaths lag cases. You're going to see a spike in cases first, then a spike in deaths later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 24, 2020, 01:42:49 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 01:36:49 PM
6. Deaths lag cases. You're going to see a spike in cases first, then a spike in deaths later.

I agree that deaths lag cases but the spike in Arizona cases and the rise in percentage positive test began nearly a month ago.  We should already be seeing a spike in deaths in Arizona but we aren't.  If you look at New York early in this pandemic, peak death occurred only about 1 week after peak cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on June 24, 2020, 01:43:25 PM
Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.
It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 01:58:05 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 24, 2020, 01:43:25 PM

Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?

Assuming that the virus didn't appear out of thin air at the Tyson plant, we can assume it came in from outside the plant.  And, assuming that the virus doesn't appear out of thin air in a town, we can assume it comes in from outside of town as well.  This is what I was actually getting at.  In the county I grew up in, for example, there have been zero cases of COVID.  So it makes no sense for a local, who interacts with basically nobody from outside of town, to wear a mask when running errands around town.  The chances that she is infected are basically nil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 02:04:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 01:28:17 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 22, 2020, 09:29:22 AM
We are nowhere near herd immunity.

(https://images.newscientist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/17143834/200620_n_seroprevalanceweb.jpg)


Does anyone know where those numbers came from?  There have been about 2.4 million confirmed cases in the USA, and the CDC estimates that 35% of cases are asymptomatic.  With a national population of 328 million, how does that math work out to ~6% of the population having been infected?  Is it because there has been a huge number of symptomatic cases that were never confirmed?
Antibody tests, I assume. Which means a lot more than 35% are asyptomatic and it is really more like a very bad flu than a black plague.
THink backward - US passed 100K deaths a while ago, and now official mortality estimate is 0.3%, higher in early days of it when ventilator use was not worked out.  That means 30 million total infected - 10% - which sort of matches the graph. 
Bad news is that we have a lot more to come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 02:12:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 02:04:28 PM
Bad news is that we have a lot more to come.

I had intended to, but forgot to, preface my question by reiterating my skepticism about the herd immunity argument to begin with.  Until we know how long our immune systems hang on to SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, I don't frankly care how close we are to reaching "herd immunity".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 02:20:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 02:12:54 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 02:04:28 PM
Bad news is that we have a lot more to come.

I had intended to, but forgot to, preface my question by reiterating my skepticism about the herd immunity argument to begin with.  Until we know how long our immune systems hang on to SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, I don't frankly care how close we are to reaching "herd immunity".
Did you read the guardian link I posted yesterday? I fully believe the ultimate outcome would  be the same:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/did-a-coronavirus-cause-the-pandemic-that-killed-queen-victorias-heir
So "flattening the curve" still stands, but the only difference it makes is WHEN you and me (literal use this time) would be infected, not IF we would get away with no infection
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on June 24, 2020, 03:59:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 01:58:05 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 24, 2020, 01:43:25 PM

Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?

Assuming that the virus didn't appear out of thin air at the Tyson plant, we can assume it came in from outside the plant.  And, assuming that the virus doesn't appear out of thin air in a town, we can assume it comes in from outside of town as well.  This is what I was actually getting at.  In the county I grew up in, for example, there have been zero cases of COVID.  So it makes no sense for a local, who interacts with basically nobody from outside of town, to wear a mask when running errands around town.  The chances that she is infected are basically nil.

Unless your birth county is living under a dome, there's no way to guarantee that interaction isn't occurring with an infected person. "Basically nil" is still "more than none".

And before you say "well of course", I would then ask why the county wouldn't take precautions when inter-county interaction is still physically possible? There's no way to guarantee virus containment without a physical containment of the people. Doing absolutely nothing, because there's basically no outside interaction, is simply asking for trouble. Can a mask prevent spread? No, but can it help? Yes, so why doesn't the county do what it can to keep it out? They're ahead of the game, and they need to stay ahead as long as US cases keep growing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 24, 2020, 04:02:18 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 23, 2020, 05:42:46 PM
How could we possibly afford Bob the luxury of making his own choice on whether to wear the mask or not? And what benefit does that give us as a society? "Mildred ended up dead because of Bob's choice, but her death is worth it because it means Bob got to make his own decision?"

Your typed the answer.  The benefit to society is that Bob gets to make his own choice.  That's called liberty, and I believe it's a fundamentally noble thing for a nation to afford its citizens.

Quote from: Bruce on June 23, 2020, 08:22:23 PM
One lesson from the pandemic: We do need a "nanny state"

One other lesson from the pandemic:  Nobody values freedom in America anymore.  It saddens me to hear a grown American wishing the government would dictate how he lives his life.

Does Mildred not get the freedom to live? Why should Bob have the freedom to choose actions that lead to Mildred's life ending without Mildred's input? Should Mildred not then have the freedom to mow Bob down with an AR-15, in self defense, because he isn't wearing a mask and thus presents a threat to her?

Jefferson was a pretty smart guy and wrote the phrase "life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness" in the order that he did for a reason. You can't have any of them without the values that precede them. Right to life is the first thing listed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 24, 2020, 04:12:56 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 24, 2020, 01:43:25 PM
Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.
It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?

Shouldn't people who work in food processing facilities (like meatpacking plants/slaughterhouses) already be wearing masks for food safety reasons?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 04:13:41 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on June 24, 2020, 03:59:29 PM
I would then ask why the county wouldn't take precautions when inter-county interaction is still physically possible? There's no way to guarantee virus containment without a physical containment of the people.

Because county governments don't tend to impose restrictions on their citizens when there is no evidence of imminent threat to those citizens.  And because they're not in the business of guaranteeing anything.  It's also not standard practice for Joe Citizen to "guarantee" any sort of perceived safety;  everyone makes judgement calls all the time about all sorts of things.  People shouldn't be expected to feel the need to do something to prevent what they consider to have a near-zero chance of happening.  And they certainly shouldn't be labeled as uncaring or irresponsible for such.

Quote from: Scott5114 on June 24, 2020, 04:02:18 PM
Does Mildred not get the freedom to live? Why should Bob have the freedom to choose actions that lead to Mildred's life ending without Mildred's input? Should Mildred not then have the freedom to mow Bob down with an AR-15, in self defense, because he isn't wearing a mask and thus presents a threat to her?

Jefferson was a pretty smart guy and wrote the phrase "life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness" in the order that he did for a reason. You can't have any of them without the values that precede them. Right to life is the first thing listed.

Mildred does have the right to live.  But Mildred doesn't have the right to live a life completely protected from any threat of danger.  Neither do you, and neither do I.  And no, Mildred doesn't have the freedom to murder Bob.  What kind of twisted mind equates not wearing a mask to killing someone with an AR-15?

Every time you go for a drive, you're surrounded by people who have the potential to inadvertently kill you with their car.  But that doesn't mean your "right to live" should prevent all those people from using the road at the same time as you, even though nobody knows upon stepping into their car if they'll cause an accident that day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 04:31:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 09:36:18 PM
As this all wears on I don't find myself as compelled to get worked up over what is in the news or what others might/might not be doing.  I've started to tune out all the back and forth as just background noise.  Not even news stories these days are really offering anything enlightening about the Coronavirus anymore.  It's been a couple weeks in fact since I've even looked at local case statistics.  I guess that I don't really feel there is a lot of value in debates anymore or trying to convince people to see things a certain way.

I'm getting to that point.  A few days ago, I made the determination to avoid consuming any more political talking heads–whether on YouTube or in the news–because I get worked up and I don't like the negativity that's building up inside me.  I think my perspective on life is getting out of whack because of it.  I considered that my next step might be to stop reading any news articles at all.  One of the guys at work here stopped watching the news a couple of months ago because he got sick of it all too.  I've said for years that I don't like getting into politics, because I get worked up and I don't like to get worked up.  And here I am.

Perhaps what I also need to do is stop reading this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 04:37:48 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 04:31:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 23, 2020, 09:36:18 PM
As this all wears on I don't find myself as compelled to get worked up over what is in the news or what others might/might not be doing.  I've started to tune out all the back and forth as just background noise.  Not even news stories these days are really offering anything enlightening about the Coronavirus anymore.  It's been a couple weeks in fact since I've even looked at local case statistics.  I guess that I don't really feel there is a lot of value in debates anymore or trying to convince people to see things a certain way.

I'm getting to that point.  A few days ago, I made the determination to avoid consuming any more political talking heads–whether on YouTube or in the news–because I get worked up and I don't like the negativity that's building up inside me.  I think my perspective on life is getting out of whack because of it.  I considered that my next step might be to stop reading any news articles at all.  One of the guys at work here stopped watching the news a couple of months ago because he got sick of it all too.  I've said for years that I don't like getting into politics, because I get worked up and I don't like to get worked up.  And here I am.

Perhaps what I also need to do is stop reading this thread.

I gave up on news a few years back.
However... a friendly advice.. do not try to politicize things - panties, holster with the gun, and a mask is the bare minimum a real man should wear outside of bed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 04:31:56 PM
A few days ago, I made the determination to avoid consuming any more political talking heads–whether on YouTube or in the news–because I get worked up and I don't like the negativity that's building up inside me.  I think my perspective on life is getting out of whack because of it.  I considered that my next step might be to stop reading any news articles at all.  One of the guys at work here stopped watching the news a couple of months ago because he got sick of it all too.  I've said for years that I don't like getting into politics, because I get worked up and I don't like to get worked up.  And here I am.

Perhaps what I also need to do is stop reading this thread.

Too much news can be a bad thing especially in this current environment, but it's still important to have at least some degree of current events awareness. I stay away from the major news outlets, as I've found I can get all the news I need from this data-based journalism site (https://fivethirtyeight.com/), which I've plugged more than once on this forum. It's as close to bi-partisan/non-politically charged as you can get, plus has great election coverage and the best podcasts around in both sports and politics IMO.

At 60+ new posts per day, this thread is certainly a lot to keep up with. Taking a few days off from it doesn't sound like a horrible idea.



Quote from: kalvado on June 24, 2020, 04:37:48 PM
However... a friendly advice.. do not try to politicize things - panties, holster with the gun, and a mask is the bare minimum a real man should wear outside of bed.

LOL!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 24, 2020, 05:12:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 24, 2020, 04:12:56 PM
Quote from: vdeane on June 24, 2020, 01:43:25 PM
Quote from: corco on June 24, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.
It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?

Shouldn't people who work in food processing facilities (like meatpacking plants/slaughterhouses) already be wearing masks for food safety reasons?

Only while they're both at work and actively packing meat? That doesn't include when they're not at work and out in the community or hanging out in the lunchroom or whatever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on June 24, 2020, 05:19:44 PM
The governor of NC has announced that the state will remain in Phase 2 for three more weeks. Masks will also be mandatory in public places. A copy of the executive order can be found near the bottom of the press release.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings (https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 24, 2020, 05:20:05 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
I've found I can get all the news I need from this data-based journalism site (https://fivethirtyeight.com/)

Same here. My main issue with it is that they do almost no articles on Saturday or Sunday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 24, 2020, 05:22:58 PM
The EU is considering banning American travelers.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/06/23/eu-ban-american-travelers-might-prohibited-visiting-europe/3244710001/

Not surprising, considering that the EU has done a much better job containing the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 24, 2020, 05:32:56 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 04:31:56 PMI'm getting to that point.  A few days ago, I made the determination to avoid consuming any more political talking heads–whether on YouTube or in the news–because I get worked up and I don't like the negativity that's building up inside me.  I think my perspective on life is getting out of whack because of it.  I considered that my next step might be to stop reading any news articles at all.  One of the guys at work here stopped watching the news a couple of months ago because he got sick of it all too.  I've said for years that I don't like getting into politics, because I get worked up and I don't like to get worked up.  And here I am.

Looking back over the last few pages of discussion, what I see is that people are getting worked up over questions of what mask wearing signifies in principle (the kind of docile acceptance of official diktat that, in the past, has been associated with acceptance of segregation, death camps, etc. versus accepting personal responsibility for promoting collective well-being), while no-one has admitted to wearing or refusing to wear masks in a manner contrary to what is officially required in his or her respective area.

Questions of principle aside, the necessity or otherwise of wearing masks is fundamentally an operational question for health professionals, who have been developing this advice on the basis of training and judgment that most members of the public do not have, and often also on the basis of data that is not publicly available.  This is the natural result of us, as a society, pursuing increases in productivity through economic specialization.  Does this enhance our vulnerability to bad faith on the part of experts?  Perhaps it does, but when the system works, it promotes economic efficiency.

As for the news, here is what I do:

*  I free myself from any sense of obligation to act on it unless I believe that my own actions can move the needle.

*  I get my information mainly from newspapers of record, since it comes to me after a layer of vetting by people who are skeptical (if not outright oppositional) by professional disposition if not temperamental inclination, and thus are unwilling to accept totally at face value the stories offered by newsmakers.  Social media has more immediacy, but is more vulnerable to abuse as a propaganda channel.  I do not get my news from TV, because it is engineered to disturb, explicitly for ratings.  Traditional media also has a clear distinction between news and editorial, which is helpful for separating facts from spin.

*  I read book-length nonfiction partly to try to develop a background understanding of how political institutions work.

*  I have been limiting my exposure to Medium.com pieces, which have become a secondary plague in the wake of covid-19.  They are written by (admittedly semi-informed) nonspecialists who don't have the key kernels of subject matter expertise that are necessary to avoid elaborating possibly dangerous misconceptions.  Often they are provocative in tone and posted with the poorly concealed intention to boost the authors' personal profiles at the expense of the information commons.

*  I tend to view online discussion venues (including Web forums such as this) as a vehicle for thinking through issues, not for organizing activism.  For the latter, there is no substitute for face-to-face contact to establish an actual shoe-leather commitment to advance action on an issue.  I have seen people twist themselves into pretzels because they have allowed themselves to believe that failing to speak out against injustice on an online forum amounts to acting on privilege that is not justly theirs.  I think this is both unfortunate and wrong.  If you see injustice and it prompts you to feel guilt about your own privilege, then yes, taking efficacious action (whatever that is) is an appropriate response, but Arguing With People On The Internet is not it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 24, 2020, 05:49:21 PM
More or less that's the point I was trying to make about most COVID articles not even being insightful anymore.  This whole issue has moved more towards the political than a public safety issue.  Really it shouldn't be that way but tends to be how things usually go in the U.S. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 24, 2020, 05:53:03 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 24, 2020, 04:12:56 PM
Shouldn't people who work in food processing facilities (like meatpacking plants/slaughterhouses) already be wearing masks for food safety reasons?

They should. I thought they wore hazmat suits even before the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 24, 2020, 05:56:38 PM
One thing I'm sick of is the phrase "in public" with regard to mask orders. For instance, news reports always say the mask order in Kentucky applies "in public." Nope. It applies at businesses, doctor's offices, etc. That's not the same as "in public."

People disobey it, but I'm pretty sure it's still on the books.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 24, 2020, 08:08:49 PM
Bring on the "killer"  dust storms:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-stricken-u-faces-another-144854519.html

Speaking from experience with Valley Fever I can say that it definitely isn't a bag of fun.  Maybe there will be a swarm of Murder Hornets in said dust storm?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 09:12:43 PM
Quote from: 1 on June 24, 2020, 05:20:05 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
I've found I can get all the news I need from this data-based journalism site (https://fivethirtyeight.com/)

Same here. My main issue with it is that they do almost no articles on Saturday or Sunday.

That's true, it's pretty rare to get new content on the weekends except in the height of election season.
I don't personally have a problem with that, though, since I often wouldn't be catching up until Monday anyways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 24, 2020, 09:28:16 PM
Texas is in bad enough shape that the governor is discussing the possibility of re-imposing restrictions.  This time, it would be based on location, like it was before the statewide order was issued.  I do think that's best, as long as it doesn't result in people fleeing the restrictions in the more heavily affected areas and carrying the virus to rural areas where it isn't a problem.

I think that the orders should be issued by states, not local governments, because most cities and counties don't have the expertise to come up with the best policies, and the efforts need to be coordinated.  That doesn't mean that there should be one rule for the whole state.  CDC issues guidance, state governments have the resources to interpret and apply it, and we can have an effective set of rules that is as limited as it can be while still working.

Look at the new IHME projection.  It shows more than 20,000 fewer deaths nationwide than the last run.  Then look at the ones for Florida and Texas.  Dubya tee eff!  What happened?  Most of the other states are doing better, but these numbers explode to a level near New Jersey.  Also, it shows the projected effect of wearing masks, if adopted by the whole population.  Places with an explosion of deaths ahead (where they can still be changed), such as Arizona, Texas, and Florida, show mask-wearing as causing a huge reduction, by more than half in Texas and Florida, and saving close to 20,000 lives in those three states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on June 25, 2020, 07:39:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 24, 2020, 05:19:44 PM
The governor of NC has announced that the state will remain in Phase 2 for three more weeks. Masks will also be mandatory in public places. A copy of the executive order can be found near the bottom of the press release.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings (https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings)

The sheriffs of Sampson and Halifax counties say they won't enforce the mask requirement...

https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/ (https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 08:20:38 AM
"Sampson County Sheriff Jimmy Thornton wrote that he believes Cooper's order is unconstitutional and unenforceable."

I wonder if Jimmy believes that if I walked around without a shirt or shoes on that enforcing that ordiance is unconstitutional as well?  Seriously we are run by idiots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 25, 2020, 09:19:23 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 25, 2020, 07:39:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 24, 2020, 05:19:44 PM
The governor of NC has announced that the state will remain in Phase 2 for three more weeks. Masks will also be mandatory in public places. A copy of the executive order can be found near the bottom of the press release.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings (https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings)

The sheriffs of Sampson and Halifax counties say they won't enforce the mask requirement...

https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/ (https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/)

If you read the Governor's order, you'll see that law enforcement doesn't have much of a role in enforcing the mask requirement anyway. Maybe if a shopowner orders an unmasked person to leave, and that person doesn't, the cops can issue a citation for trespassing. This is similar to what Virginia's governor did, in giving the health department the lead role in civil (not criminal) enforcement of mask requirements.

Methinks there's a bit of showboating here, by those NC sheriffs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on June 25, 2020, 10:14:20 AM
Quote from: oscar on June 25, 2020, 09:19:23 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 25, 2020, 07:39:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 24, 2020, 05:19:44 PM
The governor of NC has announced that the state will remain in Phase 2 for three more weeks. Masks will also be mandatory in public places. A copy of the executive order can be found near the bottom of the press release.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings (https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings)

The sheriffs of Sampson and Halifax counties say they won't enforce the mask requirement...

https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/ (https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/)

If you read the Governor's order, you'll see that law enforcement doesn't have much of a role in enforcing the mask requirement anyway. Maybe if a shopowner orders an unmasked person to leave, and that person doesn't, the cops can issue a citation for trespassing.

Yep, they can.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/statewide-mask-requirement-begins-friday-businesses-customers-can-be-cited-if-they-don-t-comply/19160441/ (https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/statewide-mask-requirement-begins-friday-businesses-customers-can-be-cited-if-they-don-t-comply/19160441/)

QuoteCooper said that businesses and customers could be cited if they do not obey the new order. Law enforcement can use trespassing laws to help businesses enforce these rules when customers refuse to obey them.

Quote from: oscar on June 25, 2020, 09:19:23 AMMethinks there's a bit of showboating here, by those NC sheriffs.

Agreed. I'm pretty familiar with Sampson County and ENC in general and this doesn't surprise me any. More in that region will probably follow suit. I know the sheriff of Johnston County doesn't have any love for Cooper, obviously for political reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 10:58:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 08:20:38 AM
"Sampson County Sheriff Jimmy Thornton wrote that he believes Cooper's order is unconstitutional and unenforceable."

I wonder if Jimmy believes that if I walked around without a shirt or shoes on that enforcing that ordiance is unconstitutional as well?  Seriously we are run by idiots.

Cite your reference for claiming there is a shirt & shoes ordinance.  People say all the time that shirt and shoes are required by ordinance, but I know of no such state law*.  Local ordinances, perhaps.  Businesses requiring shirt and shoes do so by their own individual policies, not based on any supposed health code.  However, if a business refuses to serve someone because he isn't wearing shirt or shoes, and then that person refuses to leave, the police could get involved as a matter of trespassing.



*  Except, of course, for state nudity laws that apply only to women.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 11:05:33 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
it's still important to have at least some degree of current events awareness.

I've begun to question the importance of that.  I never really much followed the news until just a few years ago, and I'm almost 39 years old.  When I think back to 15-20 years ago, it was a time in which I had no TV service, no internet at home or on my phone, and no newspaper subscription.  Am I happier now than I was back then because I'm more aware of current events?  No, I can't say that I am.  Do I think I'm more of a well-rounded individual by following the news?  Maybe slightly, but not much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 11:44:41 AM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 10:58:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 08:20:38 AM
"Sampson County Sheriff Jimmy Thornton wrote that he believes Cooper's order is unconstitutional and unenforceable."

I wonder if Jimmy believes that if I walked around without a shirt or shoes on that enforcing that ordiance is unconstitutional as well?  Seriously we are run by idiots.

Cite your reference for claiming there is a shirt & shoes ordinance.  People say all the time that shirt and shoes are required by ordinance, but I know of no such state law*.  Local ordinances, perhaps.  Businesses requiring shirt and shoes do so by their own individual policies, not based on any supposed health code.  However, if a business refuses to serve someone because he isn't wearing shirt or shoes, and then that person refuses to leave, the police could get involved as a matter of trespassing.



*  Except, of course, for state nudity laws that apply only to women.


My point is that such an ordinance would not be unconstitutional.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 25, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Isn't it a general rule that a person on private property without lawful excuse must be offered an opportunity to "cure trespass" before he or she is arrested?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 25, 2020, 11:53:48 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 25, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Isn't it a general rule that a person on private property without lawful excuse must be offered an opportunity to "cure trespass" before he or she is arrested?

The first time, yes. How it generally works:
Property owner asks someone to leave
Person refuses to leave
Property owner calls police
Police order person to leave

At this point, the property owner has the option of just having the person leave, or having them ordered not to return. If they choose the latter, the next time the person shows up, an arrest can be made without warning. This of course also assumes that the person did not commit any crimes in the process of refusing to leave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 25, 2020, 12:09:52 PM
Authoritarian measures are not a plan.

If the government is going to tell people they gotta do something, they should tell them they should stay OUTSIDE as much as possible, not inside. Then the government should provide the support for people to do it.

You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 25, 2020, 12:15:07 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 10:58:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 08:20:38 AM
...
I wonder if Jimmy believes that if I walked around without a shirt or shoes on that enforcing that ordiance is unconstitutional as well? 

Cite your reference for claiming there is a shirt & shoes ordinance.  People say all the time that shirt and shoes are required by ordinance, but I know of no such state law*.  Local ordinances, perhaps.  Businesses requiring shirt and shoes do so by their own individual policies, not based on any supposed health code.  However, if a business refuses to serve someone because he isn't wearing shirt or shoes, and then that person refuses to leave, the police could get involved as a matter of trespassing.

Shirt and shoes requirements are comparable to mask wearing in the sense that no one really cares if you do it outside of indoor public places, but for those type of places it makes sense to do it (IMO, for the purpose of this discussion) regardless of whether there's a sign stating that you must or not.

In this area, signs at entry points to indoor public places stating face covering requirements are already much more common (and much more prominent) than shoes/shirt requirements signs ever were. There's one local grocery chain that's always had a small shoes/shirt requirement on their sliding doors, and all the Thruway rest areas have similar signs, but I can't think of too many places beyond that that bothered to post a sign - because, as you mentioned, it's the specific company requirement, not an ordinance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 12:15:39 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 25, 2020, 12:09:52 PM
Authoritarian measures are not a plan.

If the government is going to tell people they gotta do something, they should tell them they should stay OUTSIDE as much as possible, not inside. Then the government should provide the support for people to do it.

You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.

Telling people to wear a mask isn't "authoritarian."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 25, 2020, 12:22:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 11:05:33 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
it's still important to have at least some degree of current events awareness.

I've begun to question the importance of that.  I never really much followed the news until just a few years ago, and I'm almost 39 years old.  When I think back to 15-20 years ago, it was a time in which I had no TV service, no internet at home or on my phone, and no newspaper subscription.  Am I happier now than I was back then because I'm more aware of current events?  No, I can't say that I am.  Do I think I'm more of a well-rounded individual by following the news?  Maybe slightly, but not much.

I remember 2016 as the year I started following the news in some form or fashion. I find data and statistics fascinating (as many here no doubt know already), so I was much more interested in that aspect of the election than the politics or the candidates, and that's kind of stuck ever since.

I think the reasons it's important to be aware of current events are social and contextual, not so much practical or because it will make you a better person. I don't want to be that guy that's totally clued out and/or misses something important that happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 25, 2020, 12:56:54 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 25, 2020, 12:22:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 11:05:33 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 24, 2020, 04:55:52 PM
it's still important to have at least some degree of current events awareness.

I've begun to question the importance of that.  I never really much followed the news until just a few years ago, and I'm almost 39 years old.  When I think back to 15-20 years ago, it was a time in which I had no TV service, no internet at home or on my phone, and no newspaper subscription.  Am I happier now than I was back then because I'm more aware of current events?  No, I can't say that I am.  Do I think I'm more of a well-rounded individual by following the news?  Maybe slightly, but not much.

I remember 2016 as the year I started following the news in some form or fashion. I find data and statistics fascinating (as many here no doubt know already), so I was much more interested in that aspect of the election than the politics or the candidates, and that's kind of stuck ever since.

I think the reasons it's important to be aware of current events are social and contextual, not so much practical or because it will make you a better person. I don't want to be that guy that's totally clued out and/or misses something important that happens.
Hey same with me! Maybe something important happened in 2016...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 01:13:03 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 11:44:41 AM

Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 10:58:18 AM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 25, 2020, 08:20:38 AM
"Sampson County Sheriff Jimmy Thornton wrote that he believes Cooper's order is unconstitutional and unenforceable."

I wonder if Jimmy believes that if I walked around without a shirt or shoes on that enforcing that ordiance is unconstitutional as well?  Seriously we are run by idiots.

Cite your reference for claiming there is a shirt & shoes ordinance.  People say all the time that shirt and shoes are required by ordinance, but I know of no such state law*.  Local ordinances, perhaps.  Businesses requiring shirt and shoes do so by their own individual policies, not based on any supposed health code.  However, if a business refuses to serve someone because he isn't wearing shirt or shoes, and then that person refuses to leave, the police could get involved as a matter of trespassing.



*  Except, of course, for state nudity laws that apply only to women.

My point is that such an ordinance would not be unconstitutional.

Gotcha.  Yeah, that's what I get for skimming posts.

Also, it isn't the Executive branch of the government that's responsible for deciding constitutionality.  That is to say, even if a law violates the Constitution, it's still the police's job to enforce that law as written.

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 25, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Isn't it a general rule that a person on private property without lawful excuse must be offered an opportunity to "cure trespass" before he or she is arrested?

I wonder if posted signs have any bearing on the answer to that question.  If you have signs on your property that state "No trespassing", can I be arrested for camping on it without first being given the opportunity to leave voluntarily?  Or is it the same regardless of posted notice?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 25, 2020, 01:27:03 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 24, 2020, 05:56:38 PM
One thing I'm sick of is the phrase "in public" with regard to mask orders. For instance, news reports always say the mask order in Kentucky applies "in public." Nope. It applies at businesses, doctor's offices, etc. That's not the same as "in public."


What then do you consider "public"?  I'm sure that the places you've listed qualify as "public accommodations" in the eyes of civil rights laws disallowing discrimination. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 01:33:20 PM
Quote from: GaryV on June 25, 2020, 01:27:03 PM

Quote from: bandit957 on June 24, 2020, 05:56:38 PM
One thing I'm sick of is the phrase "in public" with regard to mask orders. For instance, news reports always say the mask order in Kentucky applies "in public." Nope. It applies at businesses, doctor's offices, etc. That's not the same as "in public."

What then do you consider "public"?  I'm sure that the places you've listed qualify as "public accommodations" in the eyes of civil rights laws disallowing discrimination. 

Outdoor spaces are also "in public" but are typically excluded from such orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 01:40:43 PM
Also, I cannot find any indication that Kentucky requires masks even in the locations described by bandit957.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 25, 2020, 02:19:51 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 11:05:33 AMI've begun to question the importance of that.  I never really much followed the news until just a few years ago, and I'm almost 39 years old.  When I think back to 15-20 years ago, it was a time in which I had no TV service, no internet at home or on my phone, and no newspaper subscription.  Am I happier now than I was back then because I'm more aware of current events?  No, I can't say that I am.  Do I think I'm more of a well-rounded individual by following the news?  Maybe slightly, but not much.

Following the news in some form is not just a means of personal enrichment--it is also a way of engaging with the outside world.  Whether and how one does it comes down, I think, to values, preferences, and how one wishes to present oneself to others.

I have known people who have never picked up a newspaper and never watch TV news "because it is too upsetting."  Would I like to live like that?  No.  Do I condemn them?  I don't feel it's my place to do so.

I have known others who get all of their news from Fox News.  Same questions, same answers.

And I run across people who rely on Facebook and Twitter as their primary sources.  Again--same questions, same answers.

I decided long ago that I have zero interest in sports news.  I generally don't even see it except when it bleeds through into straight, non-sports coverage, as it did when the KC Chiefs won the Super Bowl.  Do I regret it?  Not really, but as I have gotten older, I have become more aware that there are tradeoffs--for example, other people whose interest in sports is superficial at best follow it anyway in order to have an entrée into water-cooler conversations where the topics may shift into areas of more interest to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on June 25, 2020, 03:57:46 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 01:13:03 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 25, 2020, 11:47:53 AM
Isn't it a general rule that a person on private property without lawful excuse must be offered an opportunity to "cure trespass" before he or she is arrested?

I wonder if posted signs have any bearing on the answer to that question.  If you have signs on your property that state "No trespassing", can I be arrested for camping on it without first being given the opportunity to leave voluntarily?  Or is it the same regardless of posted notice?

I've read that a posted sign is legally equivalent to a person physically telling you to leave the property.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Another question is this:  Who has the right to tell you to leave the property?  The manager? a security guard? a cashier? a janitor?

For example, probably 13 years ago now, I was out around town (Herrin, IL) with my wife, and I didn't have shoes on.  We went into WalMart, and the greeter told me I couldn't be in the store without shoes.  There may or may not have been a sign on the front window saying shirt and shoes required, I can't remember.  Because my shoes were back at home, I ignored the greeter and we proceeded to shop.  If a WalMart greeter tells you to leave, does that constitute proper notice, or would someone else have to tell you?

I think the answers to these questions have bearing on the issue of face masks.  But I don't know the answers to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 25, 2020, 04:22:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Another question is this:  Who has the right to tell you to leave the property?  The manager? a security guard? a cashier? a janitor?

For example, probably 13 years ago now, I was out around town (Herrin, IL) with my wife, and I didn't have shoes on.  We went into WalMart, and the greeter told me I couldn't be in the store without shoes.  There may or may not have been a sign on the front window saying shirt and shoes required, I can't remember.  Because my shoes were back at home, I ignored the greeter and we proceeded to shop.  If a WalMart greeter tells you to leave, does that constitute proper notice, or would someone else have to tell you?

I think the answers to these questions have bearing on the issue of face masks.  But I don't know the answers to them.

Any employee can tell you to leave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 04:30:26 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Another question is this:  Who has the right to tell you to leave the property?  The manager? a security guard? a cashier? a janitor?

In the absence of knowledge of the specifics of the corporate management structure, it should be assumed that any of these people have the right to do so. An employee is an agent of the company and thus speaks for the employer. If you accept a cashier telling you "Your total is $25.32" or "watch out, I just mopped, so the floor is slippery", you are accepting them as a mouthpiece for the employer. Different types of employees are delegated different tasks, but since you weren't in the meeting where they did that, you have no idea who management delegated what duties to.

That, and there's always the possibility of misidentifying an employee's position. If you go into the casino my mom works at, you can often find her mopping the floor. It would be reasonable to assume she's a janitor if you knew nothing about her. But she's actually management. She's over the housekeeping department, so she goes out to mop the floor sometimes when her employees are behind. Now, she wears business casual, so you may well identify her as a member of management. But asking people to leave is the job of the Operations department, which also wears business casual...

With the shoe thing there is also an aspect of liability for the business. If you are told "don't enter without shoes", then go step on a broken glass in the Housewares department and sue the store, the business will be able to say "We warned him to wear shoes but he ignored the warning."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: cl94 on June 25, 2020, 04:30:45 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
For example, probably 13 years ago now, I was out around town (Herrin, IL) with my wife, and I didn't have shoes on.  We went into WalMart, and the greeter told me I couldn't be in the store without shoes.  There may or may not have been a sign on the front window saying shirt and shoes required, I can't remember.  Because my shoes were back at home, I ignored the greeter and we proceeded to shop.

So you're one of those people...  X-(
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 25, 2020, 04:33:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Another question is this:  Who has the right to tell you to leave the property?  The manager? a security guard? a cashier? a janitor?

For example, probably 13 years ago now, I was out around town (Herrin, IL) with my wife, and I didn't have shoes on.  We went into WalMart, and the greeter told me I couldn't be in the store without shoes.  There may or may not have been a sign on the front window saying shirt and shoes required, I can't remember.  Because my shoes were back at home, I ignored the greeter and we proceeded to shop.  If a WalMart greeter tells you to leave, does that constitute proper notice, or would someone else have to tell you?

Stay classy, hoger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:42:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 04:30:26 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Another question is this:  Who has the right to tell you to leave the property?  The manager? a security guard? a cashier? a janitor?

In the absence of knowledge of the specifics of the corporate management structure, it should be assumed that any of these people have the right to do so. An employee is an agent of the company and thus speaks for the employer. If you accept a cashier telling you "Your total is $25.32" or "watch out, I just mopped, so the floor is slippery", you are accepting them as a mouthpiece for the employer. Different types of employees are delegated different tasks, but since you weren't in the meeting where they did that, you have no idea who management delegated what duties to.

That, and there's always the possibility of misidentifying an employee's position. If you go into the casino my mom works at, you can often find her mopping the floor. It would be reasonable to assume she's a janitor if you knew nothing about her. But she's actually management. She's over the housekeeping department, so she goes out to mop the floor sometimes when her employees are behind. Now, she wears business casual, so you may well identify her as a member of management. But asking people to leave is the job of the Operations department, which also wears business casual...

With the shoe thing there is also an aspect of liability for the business. If you are told "don't enter without shoes", then go step on a broken glass in the Housewares department and sue the store, the business will be able to say "We warned him to wear shoes but he ignored the warning."

Well, what I was really getting at is the question of what would legally constitute notice to leave a business because one wasn't wearing a mask.  I wasn't really asking about wearing shoes in WalMart, but only brought it up as an analogue.

Quote from: cl94 on June 25, 2020, 04:30:45 PM
So you're one of those people...  X-(

A hippie?

But no, seriously, I haven't gone around barefoot in probably ten years.  My feet are weenies now.

Quote from: corco on June 25, 2020, 04:33:09 PM
Stay classy, hoger.

But WalMart.   :bigass:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 05:00:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:42:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 04:30:26 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Another question is this:  Who has the right to tell you to leave the property?  The manager? a security guard? a cashier? a janitor?

In the absence of knowledge of the specifics of the corporate management structure, it should be assumed that any of these people have the right to do so. An employee is an agent of the company and thus speaks for the employer. If you accept a cashier telling you "Your total is $25.32" or "watch out, I just mopped, so the floor is slippery", you are accepting them as a mouthpiece for the employer. Different types of employees are delegated different tasks, but since you weren't in the meeting where they did that, you have no idea who management delegated what duties to.

That, and there's always the possibility of misidentifying an employee's position. If you go into the casino my mom works at, you can often find her mopping the floor. It would be reasonable to assume she's a janitor if you knew nothing about her. But she's actually management. She's over the housekeeping department, so she goes out to mop the floor sometimes when her employees are behind. Now, she wears business casual, so you may well identify her as a member of management. But asking people to leave is the job of the Operations department, which also wears business casual...

With the shoe thing there is also an aspect of liability for the business. If you are told "don't enter without shoes", then go step on a broken glass in the Housewares department and sue the store, the business will be able to say "We warned him to wear shoes but he ignored the warning."

Well, what I was really getting at is the question of what would legally constitute notice to leave a business because one wasn't wearing a mask.

The say-so of anyone acting in their capacity as an employee of the company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 05:02:11 PM
Wow!  I've never realized I had such authority as an employee.  It certainly never crossed my mind when I was pushing carts at Target that I could tell people to leave the store and have it be legally enforceable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 25, 2020, 05:30:17 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 05:02:11 PM
Wow!  I've never realized I had such authority as an employee.  It certainly never crossed my mind when I was pushing carts at Target that I could tell people to leave the store and have it be legally enforceable.

It's absolutely legally enforceable, though it is likely to get you fired as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 25, 2020, 05:32:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PM
Another question is this:  Who has the right to tell you to leave the property?  The manager? a security guard? a cashier? a janitor?

For example, probably 13 years ago now, I was out around town (Herrin, IL) with my wife, and I didn't have shoes on.  We went into WalMart, and the greeter told me I couldn't be in the store without shoes.  There may or may not have been a sign on the front window saying shirt and shoes required, I can't remember.  Because my shoes were back at home, I ignored the greeter and we proceeded to shop.  If a WalMart greeter tells you to leave, does that constitute proper notice, or would someone else have to tell you?

I think the answers to these questions have bearing on the issue of face masks.  But I don't know the answers to them.

Doesn't matter if a sign is posted or not.  There isn't a sign saying "Don't pee on the tomatoes".  Are you going to fight an employee that catches you doing this?  Or are you going to head over to the fishing lures and poo?

However, that is the reason why we have "The stuff in here may be hot" on coffee cups and "Baby not included" on a box containing a playpen.  People ignore common sense and basic levels of safety, which include wearing shoes when in a business.  Because we all know that if you cut yourself on a piece of glass due to a broken bottle that your wife dropped moments before you moved out of the way and stepped on it, you would not tell the court that the greeter told you to wear shoes and you ignored that person because you didn't think the greeter had that authority to tell you that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 25, 2020, 05:38:49 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on June 25, 2020, 05:30:17 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 05:02:11 PM
Wow!  I've never realized I had such authority as an employee.  It certainly never crossed my mind when I was pushing carts at Target that I could tell people to leave the store and have it be legally enforceable.

It's absolutely legally enforceable, though it is likely to get you fired as well.

I would estimate (I don't have direct knowledge of this), that if a greeter tells you you're not allowed to be there, then when police are called, that notice serves as evidence that you were legally informed that you're trespassing.  It's "legally enforceable" in that way.  However, if the situation escalates to involve law enforcement, then higher-ups would know about it.  If the notice was given properly, it would likely have been restated by a superior.  If the notice was given wrongly, then it can be countermanded by a superior.  The employee would be fired if the act constituted abuse or severe indiscretion (or upset an important customer).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 25, 2020, 05:43:55 PM
I also wonder about the extent to which this varies from state to state.  In New York, according to an explainer I found in a casual Google search, trespassing is apparently illegal per se, but posting no-trespassing signs gives the landowner a higher standard of protection from liability.

And I also wonder about variation according to context.  In Kansas, for example, if you carry a gun and (without lawful excuse) enter a building that has a gun-free sign, you are considered to be trespassing, and that is all it is--there is no other offense attached to the act that relates specifically to firearms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 05:50:56 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 25, 2020, 05:32:21 PM
Doesn't matter if a sign is posted or not.  There isn't a sign saying "Don't pee on the tomatoes".  Are you going to fight an employee that catches you doing this?  Or are you going to head over to the fishing lures and poo?

However, you can legally be in my front yard, so long as I don't have NO TRESPASSING signs posted.  If I come out of the house and tell you to get off my property, then that's another matter.

In fact, I believe one can legally pitch a tent and camp the night on someone's land if their NO TRESPASSING signs are posted too far apart to meet the legal requirements.  It's been a long time since I've looked up the laws regarding this stuff, though, so my memory is a bit fuzzy.

In such cases, it does matter if a sign is posted or not.

Here (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=9387.msg218265#msg218265) is the discussion we had about trespassing a few years ago, for reference.  Looks like I didn't cite any laws back then either.  Lazy me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 25, 2020, 05:58:27 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 05:50:56 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 25, 2020, 05:32:21 PM
Doesn't matter if a sign is posted or not.  There isn't a sign saying "Don't pee on the tomatoes".  Are you going to fight an employee that catches you doing this?  Or are you going to head over to the fishing lures and poo?

However, you can legally be in my front yard, so long as I don't have NO TRESPASSING signs posted.  If I come out of the house and tell you to get off my property, then that's another matter.

So, if there was no sign saying to wear shoes into a business, but someone working at the business told you to wear shoes, then it would be legally enforceable?

And you would tell the court that there was no sign prohibiting you to pee on the tomatoes?

I'm no lawyer, but I would advise against representing yourself in court.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 25, 2020, 06:14:33 PM
Here's what Texas says about trespassing, as an example:

Sec. 30.05.  CRIMINAL TRESPASS.  (a)  A person commits an offense if the person enters or remains on or in property of another, including residential land, agricultural land, a recreational vehicle park, a building, or an aircraft or other vehicle, without effective consent and the person:
(1)  had notice that the entry was forbidden; or
(2)  received notice to depart but failed to do so.
(b)  For purposes of this section:
(1)  "Entry" means the intrusion of the entire body.
(2)  "Notice" means:
(A)  oral or written communication by the owner or someone with apparent authority to act for the owner;
(B)  fencing or other enclosure obviously designed to exclude intruders or to contain livestock;
(C)  a sign or signs posted on the property or at the entrance to the building, reasonably likely to come to the attention of intruders, indicating that entry is forbidden; 
(D)  the placement of identifying purple paint marks on trees or posts on the property, provided that the marks are:
(i)  vertical lines of not less than eight inches in length and not less than one inch in width;
(ii)  placed so that the bottom of the mark is not less than three feet from the ground or more than five feet from the ground;  and
(iii)  placed at locations that are readily visible to any person approaching the property and no more than:
(a)  100 feet apart on forest land;  or
(b)  1,000 feet apart on land other than forest land;  or
(E)  the visible presence on the property of a crop grown for human consumption that is under cultivation, in the process of being harvested, or marketable if harvested at the time of entry.

Signs or paint aren't necessary if there's a fence (or crops).  It would be legal for someone to be in your yard outside of a fence if there's no sign, until you or another authorized person says it's not.

This applies to residential land, but not to habitations.  You don't need a No Trespassing sign for people to know they're not allowed to enter your house without an invitation.  Entry without consent into a habitation or a building not open to the public is burglary, with no notice required.  This applies not to the whole body, but to any part of the body or any object connected with the body.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 06:27:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 25, 2020, 05:58:27 PM
So, if there was no sign saying to wear shoes into a business, but someone working at the business told you to wear shoes, then it would be legally enforceable?

Yes, it would.  And, from what others are saying, any employee can be the one to tell you that.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 25, 2020, 05:58:27 PM
And you would tell the court that there was no sign prohibiting you to pee on the tomatoes?

I don't pee on tomatoes.

But, anyway, no I wouldn't tell them that, because urinating in public is a separate crime.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 25, 2020, 05:58:27 PM
I'm no lawyer, but I would advise against representing yourself in court.

That's fine, because I'm not in court.




How did this all start, again?  Oh, that's right:  it was asked, Does a person have to be given the opportunity to leave voluntarily before an arrest can be made?  It seems the answer to that question might be not in all situations.  Therefore, if there is a sign at a store entrance requiring a face mask, then it is possible that sign would legally count as notice to anyone without a mask to leave the premises, thus satisfying any such requirement.  Now, I'm not sure I've seen sufficient evidence presented thus far to say that with certainty, but that is what the comments so far are leading me to believe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 06:30:01 PM
Quote from: wxfree on June 25, 2020, 06:14:33 PM
Signs or paint aren't necessary if there's a fence (or crops). 

If there's "fencing or other enclosure obviously designed to exclude intruders or to contain livestock".  I don't think that necessarily describes every fence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 25, 2020, 07:22:29 PM
Quote from: GaryV on June 25, 2020, 01:27:03 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 24, 2020, 05:56:38 PM
One thing I'm sick of is the phrase "in public" with regard to mask orders. For instance, news reports always say the mask order in Kentucky applies "in public." Nope. It applies at businesses, doctor's offices, etc. That's not the same as "in public."


What then do you consider "public"?  I'm sure that the places you've listed qualify as "public accommodations" in the eyes of civil rights laws disallowing discrimination.

Those are privately owned businesses, not like parks or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 08:01:29 PM
Houston has reached 100% ICU capacity. Some real shit's about to go down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 25, 2020, 08:09:27 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 08:01:29 PM
Houston has reached 100% ICU capacity. Some real shit's about to go down.

The governor has ordered elective procedures suspended in the counties containing Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio.  He hasn't rolled back any openings, but has paused any new ones from taking effect.  He is not allowing local governments to order people to wear masks, but he is allowing local governments to order businesses to require people to wear masks.  (He's a lawyer and a politician, so we end up with things like that.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 08:31:31 PM
I get that he wants to limit the orders to counties with a large urban population, but leaving out Tarrant, Nueces, and El Paso counties (not to mention suburban counties like Denton) is a little suspect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 25, 2020, 10:07:32 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 08:31:31 PM
I get that he wants to limit the orders to counties with a large urban population, but leaving out Tarrant, Nueces, and El Paso counties (not to mention suburban counties like Denton) is a little suspect.
Maybe those counties aren't as affected yet and still have hospital capacity
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 25, 2020, 10:34:35 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 25, 2020, 10:07:32 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 25, 2020, 08:31:31 PM
I get that he wants to limit the orders to counties with a large urban population, but leaving out Tarrant, Nueces, and El Paso counties (not to mention suburban counties like Denton) is a little suspect.
Maybe those counties aren't as affected yet and still have hospital capacity

Why be reactive when you know it's coming? Once hospitals are at capacity it's too late, because any additional case growth will put them over capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 25, 2020, 11:06:05 PM
Hospitalization numbers today reflect what was happening one to three weeks ago.  Even if we take the strictest measures right now, the cases will continue to rise.  A certain amount of increase is already baked into the cake.  More of it gets baked in every day.  And no matter how awful that cake tastes, we're going to have to eat it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 26, 2020, 01:33:56 AM
I bought a bottle of Zeiss "Fog Defender" from CVS today and it's pretty effective at preventing the fogging that happens when wearing masks and glasses. Would definitely recommend, as it doesn't seem to be hoarded-out yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on June 26, 2020, 08:14:59 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 25, 2020, 10:14:20 AM
Quote from: oscar on June 25, 2020, 09:19:23 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 25, 2020, 07:39:55 AM
Quote from: LM117 on June 24, 2020, 05:19:44 PM
The governor of NC has announced that the state will remain in Phase 2 for three more weeks. Masks will also be mandatory in public places. A copy of the executive order can be found near the bottom of the press release.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings (https://governor.nc.gov/news/north-carolina-pauses-safer-home-phase-2-adds-statewide-requirement-%EF%BB%BF-face-coverings)

The sheriffs of Sampson and Halifax counties say they won't enforce the mask requirement...

https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/ (https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/some-central-nc-sheriffs-say-they-wont-enforce-coopers-statewide-mask-requirement/)

If you read the Governor's order, you'll see that law enforcement doesn't have much of a role in enforcing the mask requirement anyway. Maybe if a shopowner orders an unmasked person to leave, and that person doesn't, the cops can issue a citation for trespassing.

Yep, they can.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/statewide-mask-requirement-begins-friday-businesses-customers-can-be-cited-if-they-don-t-comply/19160441/ (https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/statewide-mask-requirement-begins-friday-businesses-customers-can-be-cited-if-they-don-t-comply/19160441/)

QuoteCooper said that businesses and customers could be cited if they do not obey the new order. Law enforcement can use trespassing laws to help businesses enforce these rules when customers refuse to obey them.

Quote from: oscar on June 25, 2020, 09:19:23 AMMethinks there's a bit of showboating here, by those NC sheriffs.

Agreed. I'm pretty familiar with Sampson County and ENC in general and this doesn't surprise me any. More in that region will probably follow suit.

As predicted...

https://www.wnct.com/local-news/enc-sheriffs-wont-enforce-face-mask-mandate/ (https://www.wnct.com/local-news/enc-sheriffs-wont-enforce-face-mask-mandate/)

And on a somewhat related note regarding Cooper's executive orders, Lt. Gov. Dan Forest has filed a lawsuit against Cooper. He's running against Cooper in November, so I'm sure this is all a coincidence.

https://www.wnct.com/news/north-carolina/lt-gov-forest-says-hes-suing-gov-cooper-for-violating-emergency-management-act/ (https://www.wnct.com/news/north-carolina/lt-gov-forest-says-hes-suing-gov-cooper-for-violating-emergency-management-act/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 26, 2020, 08:47:16 AM
More evidence for "every area gets one wave":

Alabama continues to go up mildly except for the majority black area, which already had their first wave before and is going down.
The part of Florida increasing the fastest is the northern half outside the panhandle, although it's extremely fast vs. moderately fast. The part of Florida that had the most before is the southern half.
The Native American parts of AZ and NM (the counties near Four Corners) are the only parts of either of the two states going down; they had their wave earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 26, 2020, 09:19:12 AM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 24, 2020, 12:44:37 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 24, 2020, 12:33:32 PM
In those 22 counties outlined, there have only been a combined 69 cases TOTAL.  One-third of those counties haven't recorded a single case of COVID.  Why would you demand that those residents' actions be the same as, say, Sullivan County (NY), which has two-thirds the population but 21 times the COVID cases?  That makes no sense to me.

The situation in northwestern Kansas is nowhere near a crisis--we are still having a mask debate here in Sedgwick County as hospitalizations have doubled in the past week and keep on climbing.

I do see a slight trend increase in Sedgwick County recently, but nothing super-alarming yet.

(https://i.imgur.com/vUxxTnj.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/ifgp4vl.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: cl94 on June 26, 2020, 02:34:00 PM
So much for Texas not rolling anything back- bars were closed at noon CDT (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-18e795f).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 26, 2020, 02:36:35 PM
Quote from: cl94 on June 26, 2020, 02:34:00 PM
So much for Texas not rolling anything back- bars were closed at noon CDT (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-18e795f).

Hey, if you're still at the bar by the time noon rolls around, then you obviously have a drinking problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 26, 2020, 03:01:56 PM
Quote from: cl94 on June 26, 2020, 02:34:00 PM
So much for Texas not rolling anything back- bars were closed at noon CDT (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-18e795f).

I usually go for local news rather than the local-to-New York NYT

https://www.chron.com/coronavirus/article/Houston-coronavirus-updates-What-you-need-to-15368473.php

https://www.mysanantonio.com/coronavirus/article/Texas-Gov-Greg-Abbott-closes-Texas-bars-once-15368484.php

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/06/26/texas-gov-greg-abbott-closes-bars-dials-back-restaurants-to-half-capacity-shuts-river-rafting/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 26, 2020, 03:03:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 04:07:39 PMFor example, probably 13 years ago now, I was out around town (Herrin, IL) with my wife, and I didn't have shoes on.  We went into WalMart, and the greeter told me I couldn't be in the store without shoes.  There may or may not have been a sign on the front window saying shirt and shoes required, I can't remember.  Because my shoes were back at home, I ignored the greeter and we proceeded to shop.  If a WalMart greeter tells you to leave, does that constitute proper notice, or would someone else have to tell you?

I have been thinking about this, not in terms of who is legally in the right, but rather how this plays out as a matter of social psychology.  To third parties witnessing such an incident, it seems to me highly likely to come across as a case of an outsider refusing to cooperate with someone acting in a ministerial role, and that tends to align sympathies in a way not favorable to you.  This can later cause you problems if you are later forced to rely on eyewitness testimony to defend yourself, given people's natural tendency to remember events in a way that gives them moral clarity.

Here is an example:  on Election Day last November I was involved in an incident where a poll worker accosted me as I was trying to photograph my voted ballot and tried to snatch it out of my hand.  She was apparently under the impression that what I was trying to do was illegal.  In fact it is legal in Kansas, though our county elections official has made it clear she does not want voters to do it and has encouraged voters to take selfies next to an "I voted" sign if they wish to post on Facebook that they have voted.  (This does not work for people like me:  I photograph my ballot not to post on social media, but rather to record that I voted, and for whom.)

What happened, from my point of view, is that the poll worker laid fingers on my ballot and started pulling.  I clamped down on the ballot paper before I got angry and said "No!" in a very loud voice--this is a classic James-Lange response (physical reaction first, then emotional).  It is my belief, however, that since I was doing what no-one else in the polling place was doing (even if it was perfectly legal), and was being openly noncooperative with a poll worker, third parties would have remembered this as the poll worker taking the ballot and then my snatching it back.

In the end, because I was viewed as a "problem customer," I had an entourage of poll workers following me to the tabulator to ensure that I actually fed it my ballot.  If I had left the polling place with my ballot, that would have been a clear violation of state law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 26, 2020, 03:04:25 PM
Quote from: Brandon on June 26, 2020, 03:01:56 PM
I usually go for local news rather than the local-to-New York NYT

It never takes me long to hit NYT's paywall anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 26, 2020, 03:15:41 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 26, 2020, 03:03:52 PM
In the end, because I was viewed as a "problem customer," I had an entourage of poll workers following me to the tabulator to ensure that I actually fed it my ballot.

Boy, it must be hard to look back on that with anything but sour emotions.

(FWIW, the 1st Circuit Court of Appeals–which is not over Kansas, of course–ruled that such a restriction is an unconstitutional violation of free speech, and the ruling still stands.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 26, 2020, 04:03:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 26, 2020, 03:15:41 PMBoy, it must be hard to look back on that with anything but sour emotions.

Indeed, it is!

This incident is actually driving my decision to apply for absentee ballots for both the August primary and November general election.

Quote from: kphoger on June 26, 2020, 03:15:41 PM(FWIW, the 1st Circuit Court of Appeals–which is not over Kansas, of course–ruled that such a restriction is an unconstitutional violation of free speech, and the ruling still stands.)

In Kansas, the clause that bans ballot disclosure applies to people with "election duty," which is not considered to include voters, so there isn't even a law against posting your own ballot online, though the elections officials from the Secretary of State on down do their best to discourage it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 26, 2020, 04:58:04 PM
https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3

Looks like flattening the curve didn't work very well in Texas...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on June 26, 2020, 05:14:13 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 26, 2020, 04:58:04 PM
https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3

Looks like flattening the curve didn't work very well in Texas...

Remember when the lt. gov said he'd take the risk of death over keeping the doors closed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 26, 2020, 05:19:41 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on June 26, 2020, 05:14:13 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 26, 2020, 04:58:04 PM
https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3

Looks like flattening the curve didn't work very well in Texas...

Remember when the lt. gov said he'd take the risk of death over keeping the doors closed?
Yikes
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 26, 2020, 05:20:30 PM
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2020-80/

Loss in consumer traffic due much more to people not feeling safe and not the lockdowns.

IOW, even for long-term economic reasons, opening carefuly with limitations in place was a much better alternative than the one many state chose.  Their short shutdowns, with quick reopenings, is not only a bad decision health wise, but a bad decision for economic reasons as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 26, 2020, 05:21:08 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on June 26, 2020, 05:14:13 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 26, 2020, 04:58:04 PM
https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3

Looks like flattening the curve didn't work very well in Texas...

Remember when the lt. gov said he'd take the risk of death over keeping the doors closed?

One way or another, people will die from it.  Either we had it early (as in some northern states) or later (as we see in parts of Texas).  I think we need to accept that fact.  It may sound a bit cold to some, but we do need to face facts, people will perish from it, and most of them will have underlying illnesses (approximately 0.3-0.4% mortality overall).  This isn't the Black Death (1348 - 30% mortality) nor does it even rate up with the Spanish Flu (1918 - 5% mortality).  Yes, it's bad (3x worse than seasonal flu - 0.1% mortality), but it could be worse (see the Black Death and Spanish Flu for more).

Anyway, no one gets out of life alive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on June 26, 2020, 05:43:05 PM
The insanity has reached Utah:

Quote from: Darin Bushman, Piute County Commissioner
Hang on friends, it won't be long before you are required to do the Sieg Heil salute to Herbert. Welcome to Utah now extend your right arm straight at 45 degrees keeping your hand parallel to your arm and offer your "Heil Herbert"  @GovHerbert #utah #nazi #masks #utpol

Yes, a county commissioner tweeted this. He did eventually take the tweet down but was apparently surprised that everyone was finding it offensive. And the best part? He wasn't even affected. He tweeted this in response to the governor allowing a mandatory mask order for Salt Lake and Summit Counties, both of which are still at the yellow or orange risk levels. Piute was lowered to green weeks ago.

Unrelated, we had 676 new cases today in Utah, the largest single-day increase yet and pushing us over 20,000 total cases. Our state epidemiologist has been pushing for a statewide mask requirement for a while now, but the governor won't do it. Every time there's a press conference he'll strongly state that everyone needs to be wearing a mask, but he refuses to sign an order because he seems to think the entire state's population will mask up on their own for the good of society. Clearly that is not happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 26, 2020, 06:27:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 25, 2020, 01:40:43 PM
Also, I cannot find any indication that Kentucky requires masks even in the locations described by bandit957.

The governor basically admitted that his "wear masks" order was a paper tiger and not enforceable for general retail establishments.

But it's different in businesses that are licensed by the state -- barber shops, hair and nail salons, medical offices, etc. Masks are pretty much required by the various licensure boards and such an establishment can lose its license if it doesn't enforce the requirement.

As for going barefoot, you're a braver man than I am if you go barefoot in public, especially at Walmart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 26, 2020, 08:12:00 PM
It's starting to bother me that the media is hyper focused on the rise in daily cases.  Today over 600k Americans are being tested for coronavirus compared to about 130k in early April during the initial peak.  If only 130k people were being tested today, there would be around 10k new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.  Also daily deaths from Covid is 1/4th of what it was back in April yet we hardly hear a mention of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 26, 2020, 08:27:39 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 26, 2020, 08:12:00 PM
It's starting to bother me that the media is hyper focused on the rise in daily cases.  Today over 600k Americans are being tested for coronavirus compared to about 130k in early April during the initial peak.  If only 130k people were being tested today, there would be around 10k new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.  Also daily deaths from Covid is 1/4th of what it was back in April yet we hardly hear a mention of that.

Because that statistic doesn't make for as good of a headline.  I'm not saying the news is good with case increases but it shouldn't be a shock with large scale reopening and far more tests that the confirmed case numbers are going way up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: corco on June 26, 2020, 08:29:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 26, 2020, 08:12:00 PM
It's starting to bother me that the media is hyper focused on the rise in daily cases.  Today over 600k Americans are being tested for coronavirus compared to about 130k in early April during the initial peak.  If only 130k people were being tested today, there would be around 10k new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.  Also daily deaths from Covid is 1/4th of what it was back in April yet we hardly hear a mention of that.

That's because it's not just the case numbers if you look beyond the headlines - the percentage of positive tests is also going up in most places, which suggests that it's spreading more quickly than it was before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Alps on June 26, 2020, 08:30:36 PM
Quote from: corco on June 26, 2020, 08:29:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 26, 2020, 08:12:00 PM
It's starting to bother me that the media is hyper focused on the rise in daily cases.  Today over 600k Americans are being tested for coronavirus compared to about 130k in early April during the initial peak.  If only 130k people were being tested today, there would be around 10k new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.  Also daily deaths from Covid is 1/4th of what it was back in April yet we hardly hear a mention of that.

That's because it's not just the case numbers if you look beyond the headlines - the percentage of positive tests is also going up in most places, which suggests that it's spreading more quickly than it was before.
And ICU occupancy is getting maxed out, which means that the serious cases are rising, which is exactly what we need to be concerned about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: cl94 on June 26, 2020, 08:47:47 PM
Quote from: Alps on June 26, 2020, 08:30:36 PM
And ICU occupancy is getting maxed out, which means that the serious cases are rising, which is exactly what we need to be concerned about.

Ding ding ding! THIS is what should concern people. ICU cases going up is bad, because that's what causes problems. Sure, we're testing more, but ICU occupancy isn't dependent on testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 26, 2020, 09:00:04 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 26, 2020, 08:12:00 PM
It's starting to bother me that the media is hyper focused on the rise in daily cases.  Today over 600k Americans are being tested for coronavirus compared to about 130k in early April during the initial peak.  If only 130k people were being tested today, there would be around 10k new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.  Also daily deaths from Covid is 1/4th of what it was back in April yet we hardly hear a mention of that.


More people are being tested because the virus is more widespread.  New cases is just one of a number of stats that look terrible right now.  We have utterly failed as a nation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 26, 2020, 09:51:11 PM
Read this thread. An avoidable disaster. Failed leadership.

https://twitter.com/drtomfrieden/status/1276681496624070657?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
Quote from: US 89 on June 26, 2020, 05:43:05 PM
Every time there's a press conference he'll strongly state that everyone needs to be wearing a mask, but he refuses to sign an order because he seems to think the entire state's population will mask up on their own for the good of society. Clearly that is not happening.

I am in southern Utah right now. Mask-wearing here isn't as consistent as it should be, but it seems similar to New Mexico and what little I saw of Colorado. And it's much better than the pathetic levels (with the striking exception, aside from the elderly, of black people) I saw in all the states between Virginia (mask requrement) and New Mexico I passed through on my way out west.

That last bothers me. I'm consistently wearing my mask where I can't completely avoid other people, which offers me some protection. But I would be better protected if more of the other people around me also wore masks. I hope the situation improves on the return trip, which will take a more northerly route (TBD).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 26, 2020, 11:38:17 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I am in southern Utah right now. Mask-wearing here isn't as consistent as it should be, but it seems similar to New Mexico and what little I saw of Colorado. And it's much better than the pathetic levels (with the striking exception, aside from the elderly, of black people) I saw in all the states between Virginia (mask requrement) and New Mexico I passed through on my way out west.

Which states? And is any distinct type of urban vs. rural divide noticeable?


Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I hope the situation improves on the return trip, which will take a more northerly route (TBD).

Fortunately, all current signs point to the bolded pairs going hand-in-hand with one another, while heading south is associated with things getting worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 26, 2020, 11:41:01 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 26, 2020, 09:00:04 PM
More people are being tested because the virus is more widespread.  New cases is just one of a number of stats that look terrible right now.  We have utterly failed as a nation.

They are reporting record daily cases yet deaths have dropped by roughly 75% since April.  The reality is testing capacity has substantially increased and with more testing comes more positive tests.  At this point comparing the number of daily cases today to the number of daily cases back in April is almost meaningless.  I just wish the media would do a better job at putting these numbers in context and lay off the fear mongering just a tiny bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 26, 2020, 11:51:52 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I am in southern Utah right now. Mask-wearing here isn't as consistent as it should be, but it seems similar to New Mexico and what little I saw of Colorado. And it's much better than the pathetic levels (with the striking exception, aside from the elderly, of black people) I saw in all the states between Virginia (mask requrement) and New Mexico I passed through on my way out west.

That last bothers me. I'm consistently wearing my mask where I can't completely avoid other people, which offers me some protection. But I would be better protected if more of the other people around me also wore masks. I hope the situation improves on the return trip, which will take a more northerly route (TBD).

I have in the past week been in Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, California, Oregon, Wyoming, Nebaska, South Dakota, and now Iowa.

Of these, the best mask wearing rate I've seen has been in California. The rest... all equally bad.

It's probably a safe bet that if you want to be somewhere where the majority of people are wearing masks you're best off sticking to the northeast and maybe also urban areas on the west coast. Anywhere else, you're likely to be the only customer wearing one, and even for employees it's hit or miss unless you're in a chain where corporate HQ has sufficient control over operations to mandate and enforce it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 27, 2020, 12:17:06 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 26, 2020, 11:38:17 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I am in southern Utah right now. Mask-wearing here isn't as consistent as it should be, but it seems similar to New Mexico and what little I saw of Colorado. And it's much better than the pathetic levels (with the striking exception, aside from the elderly, of black people) I saw in all the states between Virginia (mask requrement) and New Mexico I passed through on my way out west.

Which states? And is any distinct type of urban vs. rural divide noticeable?

I took a southern route, though not including Florida or Louisiana. So far, little overlap with Duke87's trip.

I generally avoided urban areas, and the ones I couldn't avoid, I usually didn't even get out of my car. So I can't speak to any urban vs. rural divide.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 27, 2020, 12:18:12 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on June 26, 2020, 11:51:52 PM
It's probably a safe bet that if you want to be somewhere where the majority of people are wearing masks you're best off sticking to the northeast and maybe also urban areas on the west coast. Anywhere else, you're likely to be the only customer wearing one ...

Possibly also the Midwest?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 01:20:12 AM
Quote from: Brandon on June 26, 2020, 05:21:08 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on June 26, 2020, 05:14:13 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 26, 2020, 04:58:04 PM
https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3

Looks like flattening the curve didn't work very well in Texas...

Remember when the lt. gov said he'd take the risk of death over keeping the doors closed?

One way or another, people will die from it.  Either we had it early (as in some northern states) or later (as we see in parts of Texas).  I think we need to accept that fact.  It may sound a bit cold to some, but we do need to face facts, people will perish from it, and most of them will have underlying illnesses (approximately 0.3-0.4% mortality overall).  This isn't the Black Death (1348 - 30% mortality) nor does it even rate up with the Spanish Flu (1918 - 5% mortality).  Yes, it's bad (3x worse than seasonal flu - 0.1% mortality), but it could be worse (see the Black Death and Spanish Flu for more).

Anyway, no one gets out of life alive.

I don't know what the fatality rate would be without remediation, but it would be higher if we all caught it at once and most of us couldn't get life-saving help.  Besides that, accepting the inevitability of mass death, justified by the universal inevitability of death, should be our last resort, not our first choice.  Just about every wealthy and advanced nation in the world has brought the numbers way down, by responding strongly to the smallest outbreaks instead of waiting for a disaster to be imminent before making small course changes.  They're also getting back to a more normal life faster and have less economic loss.  It seems to be a uniquely American predilection that we're eager to thin the herd even though we already know it isn't going to get us back to normal faster, but will make it take longer.  In Black Death and 1918 flu days, they may have had no choice, but we have the ability to quickly identify and put down outbreaks and have a high likelihood of soon having effective treatments.  There's no reason to jump right into the mass death option just because it's easier for everyone who doesn't die (or survive with organ damage).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on June 27, 2020, 05:37:03 AM
Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
Quote from: US 89 on June 26, 2020, 05:43:05 PM
Every time there's a press conference he'll strongly state that everyone needs to be wearing a mask, but he refuses to sign an order because he seems to think the entire state's population will mask up on their own for the good of society. Clearly that is not happening.

I am in southern Utah right now. Mask-wearing here isn't as consistent as it should be, but it seems similar to New Mexico and what little I saw of Colorado. And it's much better than the pathetic levels (with the striking exception, aside from the elderly, of black people) I saw in all the states between Virginia (mask requrement) and New Mexico I passed through on my way out west.

That last bothers me. I'm consistently wearing my mask where I can't completely avoid other people, which offers me some protection. But I would be better protected if more of the other people around me also wore masks. I hope the situation improves on the return trip, which will take a more northerly route (TBD).

Hardly anybody here in Danville/Pittsylvania County is wearing masks and they're sure as hell not social distancing for shit. The stores aren't enforcing the mask requirement, either. My mom (who is high risk) recently went in Family Dollar, which had a sign on the door telling people that masks were required. Of course, nobody paid it any attention, including the employees. When she mentioned the sign to them, they laughed at her.

Every time there's an article in the local newspaper on the virus or Northam, the Facebook comments make me weep for humanity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 27, 2020, 07:06:55 AM
Mask wearing is pretty good where I live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 26, 2020, 11:41:01 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 26, 2020, 09:00:04 PM
More people are being tested because the virus is more widespread.  New cases is just one of a number of stats that look terrible right now.  We have utterly failed as a nation.

They are reporting record daily cases yet deaths have dropped by roughly 75% since April.  The reality is testing capacity has substantially increased and with more testing comes more positive tests.  At this point comparing the number of daily cases today to the number of daily cases back in April is almost meaningless.  I just wish the media would do a better job at putting these numbers in context and lay off the fear mongering just a tiny bit.


Yeah.  100,000 dead.   Positive testing has gone UP after weeks of decreasing.  (And decreasing substantially in Europe.)  Hospitalizations rising in a number of areas.

But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

But anyway, my point is lack of proper controls is increasing cases across the country - which will mean both hospitalizations and deaths eventually - yet the economy still stinks.

Failure of leadership. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 27, 2020, 07:34:33 AM
Quote from: cl94 on June 26, 2020, 08:47:47 PM
Quote from: Alps on June 26, 2020, 08:30:36 PM
And ICU occupancy is getting maxed out, which means that the serious cases are rising, which is exactly what we need to be concerned about.

Ding ding ding! THIS is what should concern people. ICU cases going up is bad, because that's what causes problems. Sure, we're testing more, but ICU occupancy isn't dependent on testing.

But the ICUs aren't actually all that full.

100 percent of regular ICU beds in Texas Medical Center occupied, but hospitals have space for surge (https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3)

QuoteAll regular ICU beds in the Texas Medical Center are now being used, according to numbers just released on the TMC website, but officials say they can add more.

Hospitals in Houston's Medical Center will now move some ICU patients to beds not normally used for critical care.

Twenty-eight percent of the ICU patients are being treated for COVID-19.

Quote

The average ICU occupancy rate at the world's largest medical center is 70 to 80 percent, but higher rates aren't unheard of.

"It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s," Methodist Hospital CEO Dr. Marc Boom said. "That's how all hospitals operate."

Quote"The spread is increasing and it's very concerning. However, our hospitals are okay and ready to manage this surge effectively and appropriately," said Dr. Doug Lawson, CEO of CHI St. Luke's Health, CHI. "The reality is our capacity to care for those patients significantly exceeds what we're staffing on any given day."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 08:11:59 AM
Quote from: Brandon on June 27, 2020, 07:34:33 AM
Quote from: cl94 on June 26, 2020, 08:47:47 PM
Quote from: Alps on June 26, 2020, 08:30:36 PM
And ICU occupancy is getting maxed out, which means that the serious cases are rising, which is exactly what we need to be concerned about.

Ding ding ding! THIS is what should concern people. ICU cases going up is bad, because that's what causes problems. Sure, we're testing more, but ICU occupancy isn't dependent on testing.

But the ICUs aren't actually all that full.

100 percent of regular ICU beds in Texas Medical Center occupied, but hospitals have space for surge (https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3)

QuoteAll regular ICU beds in the Texas Medical Center are now being used, according to numbers just released on the TMC website, but officials say they can add more.

Hospitals in Houston's Medical Center will now move some ICU patients to beds not normally used for critical care.

Twenty-eight percent of the ICU patients are being treated for COVID-19.

Quote

The average ICU occupancy rate at the world's largest medical center is 70 to 80 percent, but higher rates aren't unheard of.

"It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s," Methodist Hospital CEO Dr. Marc Boom said. "That's how all hospitals operate."

Quote"The spread is increasing and it's very concerning. However, our hospitals are okay and ready to manage this surge effectively and appropriately," said Dr. Doug Lawson, CEO of CHI St. Luke's Health, CHI. "The reality is our capacity to care for those patients significantly exceeds what we're staffing on any given day."

The regular ICU capacity is kept on standby and ready to go.  The capacity is expandable.  The covid dashboard has the numbers.  Right now in Texas there are 1,284 ICU beds available, ready to be used today.  There are 5,807 ventilators available.  Some of those are ready to use on those ICU beds, and others are stored for surges.  ICU capacity can be increased by setting up ventilators and other equipment and bringing in more staff to monitor the patients.  There are field hospitals that were set up in some places to house these units.  I don't know if they were taken down after the initial surge in other places, but I assumed they would be maintained because it's entirely foreseeable that they'll be needed eventually.

In Trauma Service Area E (DFW, the most populous area with 8 million), there are 419 ICU beds and 1,323 ventilators available, and there are 1,180 covid patients hospitalized.  It isn't too bad here.  Area Q, Houston (6.7 million) has 159 ICU beds and 1,252 ventilators available, with 1,606 covid patients.  The worst area is R, Beaumont (1.3 million).  They have 9 ICU beds (it's been as low as 3) and 194 ventilators available, and they have 271 covid patients (30 times the ICU capacity available).  I would assume they're setting up extra ICU capacity since availability is so low.

I'm just learning about it this week, but the way I understand it is that the published ICU availability is what's set up and staffed and can be used now, and that can be increased by hooking up the equipment and bringing in more staff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 08:34:25 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 08:11:59 AM
I'm just learning about it this week, but the way I understand it is that the published ICU availability is what's set up and staffed and can be used now, and that can be increased by hooking up the equipment and bringing in more staff.
IF that equipment and stuff exist. NYC was gathering equipment and people from wherever they could - but that was just one sour spot at that point.
If Houston, Dallas, LA, and Phoenix go into a peak mode at the same time, there may only be only that much to go around. "Flatten the curve" is not a buzz word any more, but still the name of the game.

People forget that while death rates are going down - and sounds like a better understanding of care principles is a big part of it - at this point recovery is just a synonym of survival. Post-effects may be a big issue...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 08:53:57 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 08:34:25 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 08:11:59 AM
I'm just learning about it this week, but the way I understand it is that the published ICU availability is what's set up and staffed and can be used now, and that can be increased by hooking up the equipment and bringing in more staff.
IF that equipment and stuff exist. NYC was gathering equipment and people from wherever they could - but that was just one sour spot at that point.
If Houston, Dallas, LA, and Phoenix go into a peak mode at the same time, there may only be only that much to go around. "Flatten the curve" is not a buzz word any more, but still the name of the game.

People forget that while death rates are going down - and sounds like a better understanding of care principles is a big part of it - at this point recovery is just a synonym of survival. Post-effects may be a big issue...

It bothers me that we use the term "recovery," because it's rather presumptive.  One local government uses the term "released," meaning that the person is no longer under a quarantine order because he appears to no longer have the virus and be capable of spreading it.  That's an important thing to know, but it doesn't mean that the person is recovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 09:59:24 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
Yeah.  100,000 dead.   Positive testing has gone UP after weeks of decreasing.  (And decreasing substantially in Europe.)  Hospitalizations rising in a number of areas.

In the UK there has been 43,414 reported COVID deaths.  If the same mortality per capita was applied to the US there would be 215,000 deaths here (luckily the US deaths aren't that high).  According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, as of June 27th there has been 1,542,621 confirmed cases and 176,383 deaths in the EU/EEA and the UK  (compare that to 2,553,771 confirmed cases and 127,649 deaths in the US).  They are reporting a million fewer cases yet 48,734 more deaths than America.  That's crazy.  https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
But anyway, my point is lack of proper controls is increasing cases across the country - which will mean both hospitalizations and deaths eventually - yet the economy still stinks.

Failure of leadership. 

Your initial point was that more people were being tested today because the virus is more widespread.  The data doesn't support this and if you are only looking at daily new cases you aren't seeing the full picture.  As mentioned before if daily tests were at the same level today as it was back in April, you would be seeing about 10k daily new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on June 27, 2020, 10:10:21 AM
When I've had family members in the ICU, the above quotes match my observations. It's not unusual in my local hospital for, out of ICU 12 beds, that 10 or so are normally in use.  Obviously that can vary...I would go in the next day, and 11 or 9 beds would be in use.  And that was during normal times.  If 11 people were in there for historic illness reasons, and 1 person went in for Covid-related reasons, the "news" would claim the ICU beds were maxed out and relate it to Covid, even though only 1 bed may be in use due to that.  One morning I stopped in to visit a relative: Only 7 of 12 beds were in use, and they were commenting how slow it was that day.

That said...

Clearly the illnesses are on the rise.  And there should be by now a very clear relationship to wearing masks and social distancing does help dampen the spread, especially in public, group setting.  Warm/Hot weather, which was at first assumed to help diminish the virus, appears to have no effect on it.

And one last story...

I had a doctor's appointment yesterday.  After you walk in they quickly scan your head for your temp, and mine was well over 2 degrees off from normal...in the 95 degree range!  The girl looked a bit surprised, then asked if I was running my air conditioning.  In the car, yes, I keep it quite chilly, so it was probably that.  However, the week before I took my temperature at home and it was in the 95 and 96 degree range here too, and I'm not a foot away from an air conditioning vent. So I guess I just have a lower than normal body temp! :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 10:59:04 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 27, 2020, 10:10:21 AM
When I've had family members in the ICU, the above quotes match my observations. It's not unusual in my local hospital for, out of ICU 12 beds, that 10 or so are normally in use.  Obviously that can vary...I would go in the next day, and 11 or 9 beds would be in use.  And that was during normal times.  If 11 people were in there for historic illness reasons, and 1 person went in for Covid-related reasons, the "news" would claim the ICU beds were maxed out and relate it to Covid, even though only 1 bed may be in use due to that.  One morning I stopped in to visit a relative: Only 7 of 12 beds were in use, and they were commenting how slow it was that day.
Hospitals are for-profit organisations in US, it doesn't make sense for them to setup assets that would go unused. Some spare capacity, maybe.
ICU are used after major surgeries, though, so baseline use can be lower than normal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 11:07:55 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 09:59:24 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
Yeah.  100,000 dead.   Positive testing has gone UP after weeks of decreasing.  (And decreasing substantially in Europe.)  Hospitalizations rising in a number of areas.

In the UK there has been 43,414 reported COVID deaths.  If the same mortality per capita was applied to the US there would be 215,000 deaths here (luckily the US deaths aren't that high).  According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, as of June 27th there has been 1,542,621 confirmed cases and 176,383 deaths in the EU/EEA and the UK  (compare that to 2,553,771 confirmed cases and 127,649 deaths in the US).  They are reporting a million fewer cases yet 48,734 more deaths than America.  That's crazy.  https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
But anyway, my point is lack of proper controls is increasing cases across the country - which will mean both hospitalizations and deaths eventually - yet the economy still stinks.

Failure of leadership. 

Your initial point was that more people were being tested today because the virus is more widespread.  The data doesn't support this and if you are only looking at daily new cases you aren't seeing the full picture.  As mentioned before if daily tests were at the same level today as it was back in April, you would be seeing about 10k daily new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.
The best figure of merit could be hospital admissions - and even that may be skewed.
Number of deaths may strongly depend on the treatment approach - for example, I hear that ventilators were used in a way that didn't quite work. Now there is more understanding of how to deal with the disease, including less damaging use of ventilators.
The number of diagnosed infections may or may not include asymptomatic and cold-grade symptoms which are just disregarded as non-event near the peak.
Even the number of hospital admissions is not bullet proof, as admissions threshold can change quite a bit. During the peak, those capable of breathing and sustaining heartbeat without external help  may just be quarantined at home as there isn't much what could be done for them anyway. off-peak, it may be wise to keep them under constant monitoring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 27, 2020, 11:38:39 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 10:59:04 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 27, 2020, 10:10:21 AM
When I've had family members in the ICU, the above quotes match my observations. It's not unusual in my local hospital for, out of ICU 12 beds, that 10 or so are normally in use.  Obviously that can vary...I would go in the next day, and 11 or 9 beds would be in use.  And that was during normal times.  If 11 people were in there for historic illness reasons, and 1 person went in for Covid-related reasons, the "news" would claim the ICU beds were maxed out and relate it to Covid, even though only 1 bed may be in use due to that.  One morning I stopped in to visit a relative: Only 7 of 12 beds were in use, and they were commenting how slow it was that day.
Hospitals are for-profit organisations in US,
And that's a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 27, 2020, 11:47:57 AM
Quote from: Brandon on June 27, 2020, 07:34:33 AMBut the ICUs aren't actually all that full.

100 percent of regular ICU beds in Texas Medical Center occupied, but hospitals have space for surge (https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3)

Yes--when that link was posted earlier in this thread (by Roadgeekteen), I clicked through and discovered it was largely about hospital system CEOs trying to reel back an earlier communication about ICUs filling up that caused alarm to a degree they didn't intend.

This said, the underlying problem--the potential for cases to grow exponentially while ICU capacity can be increased arithmetically at best--doesn't go away.

I did a small back-of-the-envelope calculation based on TMC's quoted numbers:  ~400 beds in the ICU, ~25% covid-19 patients, ~350 additional beds available through reallocation, 500 beds available through opening up an ICU that is currently shuttered.  This means that available new capacity for covid-19 patients is about 8.5 times what is currently being utilized (ignoring the possibility, mentioned by Wxfree above, that there will be patients incoming from areas with higher load factors).  This added capacity can fill up in about three times the doubling period for cases plus some lag time for incubation.

So what is the doubling period?  For Texas my current back-of-the-envelope estimate is two weeks (based on ~5% growth in confirmed cases over the past couple of days), which gives about two months before things really hit the buffers, but this assumes the doubling period doesn't shorten.

So it doesn't surprise me that the governor has ordered bars closed and counties are now enforcing mask wearing more aggressively.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on June 27, 2020, 01:21:26 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 09:59:24 AM
Your initial point was that more people were being tested today because the virus is more widespread.  The data doesn't support this and if you are only looking at daily new cases you aren't seeing the full picture.  As mentioned before if daily tests were at the same level today as it was back in April, you would be seeing about 10k daily new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.

That might be true at the national level, but not at the state level. If case numbers are rising faster than test numbers are, if indeed test numbers are rising at all (looking at you, Florida) (https://covidtracking.com/blog/its-not-just-testing), you can't just blame it on more tests.

As for death rates still going down: people generally aren't dying immediately upon testing positive. Don't be surprised if that trend changes in the next couple weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 27, 2020, 01:25:51 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on June 27, 2020, 10:10:21 AM
Warm/Hot weather, which was at first assumed to help diminish the virus, appears to have no effect on it.

It does, to the extent that it affects whether you spend time indoors or outdoors. It's just that warm/hot weather has different meanings and implications in different parts of the country.

In the Northeast/Upper Midwest, warm/hot weather means summer! Time to get outside!
In the Deep South and Southwest, warm/hot weather means the "nice" season is over, time to crank up the AC and stay inside!
And the spread is greatly reduced outdoors, so that's why we're now seeing the significant north/south divide largely opposite to what we saw in March/April.




I went to a local ice cream shop last weekend, which was very busy now that it's summer and this area has reopened. There was probably several hundred people there, and quite long lines - certainly the largest "gathering" I had seen since the pandemic began. Probably about 2/3 of people were wearing masks, and social distancing was being observed in a loose and general sense (keep an arm's length away from other parties, but don't worry about taking 6 feet too literally). But no one seem bothered at all about the virus spreading because the lines and order points are outside. If it had been indoors, there would have been close to 100% mask wearing, and stricter social distancing. This just goes to show that indoors vs. outdoors is one of the most important factors in the spread of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 27, 2020, 01:27:24 PM
I don't understand why they don't test everyone. I'd gladly take the test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 02:10:13 PM
Quote from: Eth on June 27, 2020, 01:21:26 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 09:59:24 AM
Your initial point was that more people were being tested today because the virus is more widespread.  The data doesn't support this and if you are only looking at daily new cases you aren't seeing the full picture.  As mentioned before if daily tests were at the same level today as it was back in April, you would be seeing about 10k daily new cases as opposed to the 40k being reported.

That might be true at the national level, but not at the state level. If case numbers are rising faster than test numbers are, if indeed test numbers are rising at all (looking at you, Florida) (https://covidtracking.com/blog/its-not-just-testing), you can't just blame it on more tests.

As for death rates still going down: people generally aren't dying immediately upon testing positive. Don't be surprised if that trend changes in the next couple weeks.

Percentage positive tests in Arizona have been rising since mid-May going from a 7-day rolling average of 6.5% to 23.2% today.  Even with that big rise there hasn't been a big increase in deaths.  I know deaths lag cases but this rise has been going on in Arizona for over a month now.  To put things in perspective Arizona would have to average 358 deaths a day to compare with what has happening in NY back in April.  Today Arizona is averaging 32 deaths a day which is only 18% higher than the 27 deaths they were averaging on May 8th.  What is going on in Arizona?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 27, 2020, 02:47:20 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 27, 2020, 01:27:24 PMI don't understand why they don't test everyone. I'd gladly take the test.

I wouldn't if it meant calling and then waiting for a callback that might not arrive for a week, if at all, which is the situation here for people who aren't reporting symptoms.  Test take-up would likely be much better if it did not need to be booked in advance and reliable results were available within fifteen minutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 02:52:20 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 27, 2020, 01:27:24 PM
I don't understand why they don't test everyone. I'd gladly take the test.

Waste of resources. All that will do is tell you that you don't have it at that one point in time. You could catch it five minutes later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on June 27, 2020, 03:12:33 PM
In Michigan, I would say 80-90% of people are wearing masks inside at grocery stores (even in my home county, which had 12 COVID cases [11 of whom have recovered] as of earlier this week).

Whitmer is alarmed with the rise of cases this week (most of them found via contact tracing and known exposure locations), but there have been around 2,500 new cases in the last week (which is much lower than TX, AZ, FL, and CA, all of whom are averaging over 2,500 per DAY). ICU capacity is very good in Michigan (under 400 hospitalized COVID cases statewide last week, when there were nearly 4,000 hospitalized COVID cases statewide in mid-April).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 03:16:20 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 27, 2020, 01:27:24 PM
I don't understand why they don't test everyone. I'd gladly take the test.
There are two types of tests, and before you do testing - just think what would you do differently once you have the result.

1. Antibody blood test. I am flirting with the idea of getting one; over here it is $100 at urgent care (+$130 visit fee), should be mostly covered by insurance. It generally tells if you got a lucky ticket and already recovered (maybe without noticing it). Still not too reliable, still rare.  If positive, you may take a deep breath - pandemic is over for you personally.
2. Nasal swab PCR test. It tells only if you're actually having infection here and now. You could get infected 2 days before the test and it will not show up; you could get infected 5 minutes after the test, or possibly you're recovered. As such, it is IMHO meaningless to those who don't have a reason to be tested as it doesn't really change anythig. That is, those sick - to plan treatment and isolation options; those who got in close contact with sick may benefit - but quarantine is still required; and those who may feasibly infect lots of others - say nurses at nursing home, preferably before each shift. Otherwise, it tells you only that much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 03:44:31 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 03:16:20 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 27, 2020, 01:27:24 PM
I don't understand why they don't test everyone. I'd gladly take the test.
There are two types of tests, and before you do testing - just think what would you do differently once you have the result.

1. Antibody blood test. I am flirting with the idea of getting one; over here it is $100 at urgent care (+$130 visit fee), should be mostly covered by insurance. It generally tells if you got a lucky ticket and already recovered (maybe without noticing it). Still not too reliable, still rare.  If positive, you may take a deep breath - pandemic is over for you personally.
2. Nasal swab PCR test. It tells only if you're actually having infection here and now. You could get infected 2 days before the test and it will not show up; you could get infected 5 minutes after the test, or possibly you're recovered. As such, it is IMHO meaningless to those who don't have a reason to be tested as it doesn't really change anythig. That is, those sick - to plan treatment and isolation options; those who got in close contact with sick may benefit - but quarantine is still required; and those who may feasibly infect lots of others - say nurses at nursing home, preferably before each shift. Otherwise, it tells you only that much.

Increased testing would help scientists understand more about how widely spread it is.  It would also catch some people who are spreading it around sooner.  I heard a doctor on television give an estimate that 1 in 200 Americans are currently infected (about 1.65 million).  That's just his professional opinion.  It would be nice if there were more data.  One thing I've been wondering about, that I've finally seen discussed, is pooled testing.  You can combine samples from several people and test all of them in the same specimen, using the same amount of  chemicals.  If the overall result is negative, then each individual is negative.  That could greatly increase the capacity.  If the overall result is positive, then the rest of each sample, which would have been saved, would be tested individually.  Until we get the much more efficient antigen testing, this could help us squeeze more tests out of our capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 05:38:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 03:44:31 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 03:16:20 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 27, 2020, 01:27:24 PM
I don't understand why they don't test everyone. I'd gladly take the test.
There are two types of tests, and before you do testing - just think what would you do differently once you have the result.

1. Antibody blood test. I am flirting with the idea of getting one; over here it is $100 at urgent care (+$130 visit fee), should be mostly covered by insurance. It generally tells if you got a lucky ticket and already recovered (maybe without noticing it). Still not too reliable, still rare.  If positive, you may take a deep breath - pandemic is over for you personally.
2. Nasal swab PCR test. It tells only if you're actually having infection here and now. You could get infected 2 days before the test and it will not show up; you could get infected 5 minutes after the test, or possibly you're recovered. As such, it is IMHO meaningless to those who don't have a reason to be tested as it doesn't really change anythig. That is, those sick - to plan treatment and isolation options; those who got in close contact with sick may benefit - but quarantine is still required; and those who may feasibly infect lots of others - say nurses at nursing home, preferably before each shift. Otherwise, it tells you only that much.

Increased testing would help scientists understand more about how widely spread it is.  It would also catch some people who are spreading it around sooner.  I heard a doctor on television give an estimate that 1 in 200 Americans are currently infected (about 1.65 million).  That's just his professional opinion.  It would be nice if there were more data.  One thing I've been wondering about, that I've finally seen discussed, is pooled testing.  You can combine samples from several people and test all of them in the same specimen, using the same amount of  chemicals.  If the overall result is negative, then each individual is negative.  That could greatly increase the capacity.  If the overall result is positive, then the rest of each sample, which would have been saved, would be tested individually.  Until we get the much more efficient antigen testing, this could help us squeeze more tests out of our capacity.
"more data" is a great argument - until you realize it gives very little reason for you personally to seek the test.
Signing up potential plasma donors for IgM loaded plasma is another possible reason - assuming those symptomless patients have enough IgM to bother.

As for combined - PCR test is sensitive, but amount of virus in upper respiration tract is limited. My understanding is that poor test responce is already due to that limitation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on June 27, 2020, 06:06:24 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 26, 2020, 11:38:17 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I am in southern Utah right now. Mask-wearing here isn't as consistent as it should be, but it seems similar to New Mexico and what little I saw of Colorado. And it's much better than the pathetic levels (with the striking exception, aside from the elderly, of black people) I saw in all the states between Virginia (mask requrement) and New Mexico I passed through on my way out west.

Which states? And is any distinct type of urban vs. rural divide noticeable?


Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I hope the situation improves on the return trip, which will take a more northerly route (TBD).

Fortunately, all current signs point to the bolded pairs going hand-in-hand with one another, while heading south is associated with things getting worse.

Part of the reason for that inversion is thought to be the weather, and not necessarily a refutation of the theory that heat would kill the virus. When the outbreak first started, it was cool in the north and people weren't out and about as much. They stayed indoors more. Now, it's mostly pleasant in the north, but it's time for summer heat in the south, and people are staying inside where it's air-conditioned. And since transmission is said to be more common inside than outside...

If this is still happening when winter comes, you're likely to see another inversion unless having the virus really does give you immunity. A rise in cases up north, and a decline down south.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 06:14:15 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 27, 2020, 06:06:24 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 26, 2020, 11:38:17 PM
Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I am in southern Utah right now. Mask-wearing here isn't as consistent as it should be, but it seems similar to New Mexico and what little I saw of Colorado. And it's much better than the pathetic levels (with the striking exception, aside from the elderly, of black people) I saw in all the states between Virginia (mask requrement) and New Mexico I passed through on my way out west.

Which states? And is any distinct type of urban vs. rural divide noticeable?


Quote from: oscar on June 26, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
I hope the situation improves on the return trip, which will take a more northerly route (TBD).

Fortunately, all current signs point to the bolded pairs going hand-in-hand with one another, while heading south is associated with things getting worse.

Part of the reason for that inversion is thought to be the weather, and not necessarily a refutation of the theory that heat would kill the virus. When the outbreak first started, it was cool in the north and people weren't out and about as much. They stayed indoors more. Now, it's mostly pleasant in the north, but it's time for summer heat in the south, and people are staying inside where it's air-conditioned. And since transmission is said to be more common inside than outside...

If this is still happening when winter comes, you're likely to see another inversion unless having the virus really does give you immunity. A rise in cases up north, and a decline down south.
While any explanation is plausible at this point, flu and common cold seasonality can be a good comparison. As far as I understand, relation of cold weather to rhinovirus infection is fairly straightforward. Flu, however, is more complicated. Interestingly enough, seasonality of flu can vary even within single country. This is for India, more northern Srinagar (top) and New Dehli (bottom):
(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4193176/bin/14-0431-F1.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on June 27, 2020, 10:26:24 PM
It turns out Houston's hospitals are not in a panic, echoing what Brandon said earlier in the thread:

http://www.memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke's-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children's-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 27, 2020, 10:28:28 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on June 27, 2020, 10:26:24 PM
It turns out Houston's hospitals are not in a panic, echoing what Brandon said earlier in the thread:

http://www.memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke's-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children's-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/
Well that's good. Hopefully cases don't increase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 11:18:22 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 09:59:24 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

If the increase in diagnoses were a result of more testing, the positivity rate would be going down.  The positivity rate is going up rapidly, meaning that whatever portion of the cases we're catching is smaller than it was before, meaning that the actual spread is much faster than what's being measured, and by a higher multiple than it was a month ago.  I don't know if it's worse than April, but it's bad.  The spread today won't be measured for another week, and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths will continue for another three weeks after that.  The first thing to slow down will probably be the positivity rate, then the confirmed case rate.  The other numbers will keep going up for a while.  For right now, everything is headed in the wrong direction very fast.  Hopefully what we've learned from other places will help keep the death rate down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on June 27, 2020, 11:33:18 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 27, 2020, 06:06:24 PM
Part of the reason for that inversion is thought to be the weather, and not necessarily a refutation of the theory that heat would kill the virus. When the outbreak first started, it was cool in the north and people weren't out and about as much. They stayed indoors more. Now, it's mostly pleasant in the north, but it's time for summer heat in the south, and people are staying inside where it's air-conditioned. And since transmission is said to be more common inside than outside...

There is probably some truth to this.

Still, this is an explanation, not an excuse. If it's too hot to comfortably socialize outside... too bad. Build up some heat tolerance or abstain from socializing with people. Socializing indoors gets us the case surges we're now seeing and this should not be surrendered to as acceptable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on June 27, 2020, 11:41:33 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 27, 2020, 03:12:33 PM
In Michigan, I would say 80-90% of people are wearing masks inside at grocery stores (even in my home county, which had 12 COVID cases [11 of whom have recovered] as of earlier this week).

Whitmer is alarmed with the rise of cases this week (most of them found via contact tracing and known exposure locations), but there have been around 2,500 new cases in the last week (which is much lower than TX, AZ, FL, and CA, all of whom are averaging over 2,500 per DAY). ICU capacity is very good in Michigan (under 400 hospitalized COVID cases statewide last week, when there were nearly 4,000 hospitalized COVID cases statewide in mid-April).
I have yet to see someone not wearing a mask. Everyone seems to have just accepted it as a part of life for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on June 28, 2020, 01:09:03 AM
Quote from: kalvado on June 27, 2020, 10:59:04 AM
Hospitals are for-profit organisations in US, it doesn't make sense for them to setup assets that would go unused.

Only a small percentage are for-profit. Many more are private non-profit.

Of course, the private non-profits pay attention to the bottom line, too. As famously said by the nun who led one of the largest Catholic hospital systems, "no margin, no mission".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 28, 2020, 02:35:49 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on June 27, 2020, 11:41:33 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 27, 2020, 03:12:33 PM
In Michigan, I would say 80-90% of people are wearing masks inside at grocery stores (even in my home county, which had 12 COVID cases [11 of whom have recovered] as of earlier this week).

Whitmer is alarmed with the rise of cases this week (most of them found via contact tracing and known exposure locations), but there have been around 2,500 new cases in the last week (which is much lower than TX, AZ, FL, and CA, all of whom are averaging over 2,500 per DAY). ICU capacity is very good in Michigan (under 400 hospitalized COVID cases statewide last week, when there were nearly 4,000 hospitalized COVID cases statewide in mid-April).
I have yet to see someone not wearing a mask. Everyone seems to have just accepted it as a part of life for now.

I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 28, 2020, 08:44:12 AM
Quote from: CoreySamson on June 27, 2020, 10:26:24 PM
It turns out Houston's hospitals are not in a panic, echoing what Brandon said earlier in the thread:

http://www.memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke's-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children's-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/



I think a lot of hospitals learned from what happened in New York.

But I will point out that this doesn't mean that hospitalizations are going down.  Just that the hospitals have created capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 10:30:34 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 28, 2020, 02:35:49 AM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on June 27, 2020, 11:41:33 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 27, 2020, 03:12:33 PM
In Michigan, I would say 80-90% of people are wearing masks inside at grocery stores (even in my home county, which had 12 COVID cases [11 of whom have recovered] as of earlier this week).

Whitmer is alarmed with the rise of cases this week (most of them found via contact tracing and known exposure locations), but there have been around 2,500 new cases in the last week (which is much lower than TX, AZ, FL, and CA, all of whom are averaging over 2,500 per DAY). ICU capacity is very good in Michigan (under 400 hospitalized COVID cases statewide last week, when there were nearly 4,000 hospitalized COVID cases statewide in mid-April).
I have yet to see someone not wearing a mask. Everyone seems to have just accepted it as a part of life for now.

I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.
Is mask usage required in Oklahoma?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 10:47:02 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 11:18:22 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 09:59:24 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

If the increase in diagnoses were a result of more testing, the positivity rate would be going down.  The positivity rate is going up rapidly, meaning that whatever portion of the cases we're catching is smaller than it was before, meaning that the actual spread is much faster than what's being measured, and by a higher multiple than it was a month ago.  I don't know if it's worse than April, but it's bad.  The spread today won't be measured for another week, and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths will continue for another three weeks after that.  The first thing to slow down will probably be the positivity rate, then the confirmed case rate.  The other numbers will keep going up for a while.  For right now, everything is headed in the wrong direction very fast.  Hopefully what we've learned from other places will help keep the death rate down.

Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 

(https://i.imgur.com/jaGzhQV.png)
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 28, 2020, 11:16:30 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 10:47:02 AM
Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 
Probably not. There should be few cohorts being tested - something like high priority with symptoms, the medium priority with traced contact, lower priority walk-ins. I bet probability of positive test is higher in first two groups - and a lot of capacity increase should go to lower risk cohort.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 28, 2020, 12:36:18 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 28, 2020, 02:35:49 AMI went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

On my recent weekly trips to the grocery store, all of the employees have been wearing masks while only about half of the customers have been.  And grocery shopping is often a family activity (with cases going up, it's been getting harder not to think of this as making sure the virus gets spread).

In Wichita, we are currently up to five restaurants that have reopened and then had to close as a result of employees contracting covid-19 or being exposed to someone who has it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 12:50:07 PM
https://people.com/health/85-new-coronavirus-cases-linked-michigan-bar/

Bars. don't. need. to. open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 28, 2020, 12:58:31 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 12:50:07 PM
https://people.com/health/85-new-coronavirus-cases-linked-michigan-bar/

Bars. don't. need. to. open.

Texas closed theirs (finally)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: AsphaltPlanet on June 28, 2020, 01:05:43 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 10:47:02 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 11:18:22 PM

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

If the increase in diagnoses were a result of more testing, the positivity rate would be going down.  The positivity rate is going up rapidly, meaning that whatever portion of the cases we're catching is smaller than it was before, meaning that the actual spread is much faster than what's being measured, and by a higher multiple than it was a month ago.  I don't know if it's worse than April, but it's bad.  The spread today won't be measured for another week, and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths will continue for another three weeks after that.  The first thing to slow down will probably be the positivity rate, then the confirmed case rate.  The other numbers will keep going up for a while.  For right now, everything is headed in the wrong direction very fast.  Hopefully what we've learned from other places will help keep the death rate down.

Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 

(https://i.imgur.com/jaGzhQV.png)
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
[/quote]
Quote from: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 10:47:02 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 27, 2020, 11:18:22 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 27, 2020, 09:59:24 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 27, 2020, 07:19:30 AM
But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

If the increase in diagnoses were a result of more testing, the positivity rate would be going down.  The positivity rate is going up rapidly, meaning that whatever portion of the cases we're catching is smaller than it was before, meaning that the actual spread is much faster than what's being measured, and by a higher multiple than it was a month ago.  I don't know if it's worse than April, but it's bad.  The spread today won't be measured for another week, and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths will continue for another three weeks after that.  The first thing to slow down will probably be the positivity rate, then the confirmed case rate.  The other numbers will keep going up for a while.  For right now, everything is headed in the wrong direction very fast.  Hopefully what we've learned from other places will help keep the death rate down.

Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 

(https://i.imgur.com/jaGzhQV.png)
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

Except that when there were days where a large amount of tests were being conducted in the middle of May, the amount of positive tests didn't spike like it is spiking now.

I'm sure that there is a relationship between the number of tests and the number of positive tests (there has to be), but to think that the numbers aren't growing as a result of rather lax restrictions on spreading is a pretty naive assumption.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jmacswimmer on June 28, 2020, 01:09:57 PM
Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: jmacswimmer on June 28, 2020, 01:09:57 PM
Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html
Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 28, 2020, 01:36:00 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: jmacswimmer on June 28, 2020, 01:09:57 PM
Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html
Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.
It is still something to be seen in a few years.
Total virus eradication is not on the table. So what would happen in 10 years? Some plausible scenarios are herd immunity, either via vaccination or disease survival, or an island of non-immune people locked in their safe area with periodic flares of infection, followed by lockdowns, and what not.  I don't really see any other options.
A vaccine is still an IF, not WHEN. And if previous major epidemics are of any comparative value, second wave would arrive to NE US/Europe in winter. Chances are no massive vaccinations by then.
So "slow burn" Sweden approach may turn out to be the best, and well-handled EU may be hammered.  US is not taking advantage of either maintaining economy during high season nor of a break in the middle of the fire.
Or maybe US rate would end up optimal, with enough people being immune to quench winter wave. Hindsight never lies, so those of us who survive this will know for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 28, 2020, 01:36:00 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: jmacswimmer on June 28, 2020, 01:09:57 PM
Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html
Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.
It is still something to be seen in a few years.
Total virus eradication is not on the table. So what would happen in 10 years? Some plausible scenarios are herd immunity, either via vaccination or disease survival, or an island of non-immune people locked in their safe area with periodic flares of infection, followed by lockdowns, and what not.  I don't really see any other options.
A vaccine is still an IF, not WHEN. And if previous major epidemics are of any comparative value, second wave would arrive to NE US/Europe in winter. Chances are no massive vaccinations by then.
So "slow burn" Sweden approach may turn out to be the best, and well-handled EU may be hammered.  US is not taking advantage of either maintaining economy during high season nor of a break in the middle of the fire.
Or maybe US rate would end up optimal, with enough people being immune to quench winter wave. Hindsight never lies, so those of us who survive this will know for sure.
Didn't Fauci say that a vaccine was a when not an if?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 02:20:09 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: jmacswimmer on June 28, 2020, 01:09:57 PM
Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html
Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

Europe has handled this better based on what metric?  According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control there has been 1.54 million cases and 176k deaths in the European Economic Area (EEA).   America has 2.56 million cases yet only 127k deaths.  America has more robust testing (resulting in a million more cases) and fewer deaths than the EEA.... based on the data how is Europe handling this a lot better?? 

(https://i.imgur.com/pwH26a8.png)
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 28, 2020, 02:26:30 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 02:12:10 PM

Didn't Fauci say that a vaccine was a when not an if?

"When" seems to be a sticking point. Also effectiveness (permanent vs temporary immunity).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 28, 2020, 03:14:20 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 02:12:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 28, 2020, 01:36:00 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: jmacswimmer on June 28, 2020, 01:09:57 PM
Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html
Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.
It is still something to be seen in a few years.
Total virus eradication is not on the table. So what would happen in 10 years? Some plausible scenarios are herd immunity, either via vaccination or disease survival, or an island of non-immune people locked in their safe area with periodic flares of infection, followed by lockdowns, and what not.  I don't really see any other options.
A vaccine is still an IF, not WHEN. And if previous major epidemics are of any comparative value, second wave would arrive to NE US/Europe in winter. Chances are no massive vaccinations by then.
So "slow burn" Sweden approach may turn out to be the best, and well-handled EU may be hammered.  US is not taking advantage of either maintaining economy during high season nor of a break in the middle of the fire.
Or maybe US rate would end up optimal, with enough people being immune to quench winter wave. Hindsight never lies, so those of us who survive this will know for sure.
Didn't Fauci say that a vaccine was a when not an if?
in principle, 2100 is "when", but for practical purposes it is "never"...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on June 28, 2020, 03:53:34 PM
Quote from: AsphaltPlanet on June 28, 2020, 01:05:43 PM
I'm sure that there is a relationship between the number of tests and the number of positive tests (there has to be), but to think that the numbers aren't growing as a result of rather lax restrictions on spreading is a pretty naive assumption.

Think of it this way:  when test kits are limited, testing was prioritized for those who had suspected cases or suspected exposures to COVID, and you would expect positivity rates to be relatively high.  Then, as more test kits become available, if testing criteria evolve towards "everybody just get tested on a regular basis", then all other things being equal, you would expect the positivity rates to trend down towards the "real" active infection rate in the population.

The fact that testing rates have increased and the quoted positivity rates have remained the same or increased is not a good sign.

A point of trivia for comparison:  In Connecticut, positivity rates are about 1.25%.   A positivity rate in excess of 10% is one of the criteria for a state to be covered by the (relatively toothless) NJ/NY/CT quarantine order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
There is roughly 6X more testing being done today than in early April when daily cases peaked at 34k.  We would need to see about 200k daily cases before returning to how bad things were in April (when over 2000 people were dying each day). That's not to say we won't get to that number especially considering the South and West have begun their exponential rise in cases (but 10k daily cases in Florida today isn't the same as 10k daily cases in New York back in April).  If people are freaking out about 40k daily cases today, jut wait till it's up over 200k.  It's just unfortunate that the media will focus on the daily numbers to argue that the administration is failing (especially when increases in daily numbers indicates that robust testing is taking place).   

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12034/production/_113108737_optimised-us_cases-nc.png)

What are the chances we get to 200k cases per day?  Pretty good considering we locked down the entire country when only the Northeast region was experiencing a significant outbreak.  The lock-downs delayed the "first wave" from extending to the other regions of the country but the virus is hitting them pretty hard now.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/14744/production/_113108738_optimised-us_cases_regions-nc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on June 28, 2020, 04:33:10 PM
Quote from: ftballfan on June 27, 2020, 03:12:33 PM
In Michigan, I would say 80-90% of people are wearing masks inside at grocery stores (even in my home county, which had 12 COVID cases [11 of whom have recovered] as of earlier this week).

Whitmer is alarmed with the rise of cases this week (most of them found via contact tracing and known exposure locations), but there have been around 2,500 new cases in the last week (which is much lower than TX, AZ, FL, and CA, all of whom are averaging over 2,500 per DAY). ICU capacity is very good in Michigan (under 400 hospitalized COVID cases statewide last week, when there were nearly 4,000 hospitalized COVID cases statewide in mid-April).

Different story here in SC. We probably are one of the 2-3 worst states right now, as our positivity rate has gone to 20%. Masks depend on where you are in the state. Columbia has a mask ordinance, along with Greenville (two of the largest cities). Charleston starts July 1.

I was at the grocery store on James Island (near Charleston) today and 75% of shoppers were wearing masks. You go to a more conservative area though, and some places barely anybody is wearing one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 04:42:28 PM
In Massachusetts today, the percent positive dipped back under 2% so that's good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 28, 2020, 09:34:14 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 03:56:08 PM
There is roughly 6X more testing being done today than in early April when daily cases peaked at 34k.  We would need to see about 200k daily cases before returning to how bad things were in April (when over 2000 people were dying each day). That's not to say we won't get to that number especially considering the South and West have begun their exponential rise in cases (but 10k daily cases in Florida today isn't the same as 10k daily cases in New York back in April).  If people are freaking out about 40k daily cases today, jut wait till it's up over 200k.  It's just unfortunate that the media will focus on the daily numbers to argue that the administration is failing (especially when increases in daily numbers indicates that robust testing is taking place).   

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12034/production/_113108737_optimised-us_cases-nc.png)

What are the chances we get to 200k cases per day?  Pretty good considering we locked down the entire country when only the Northeast region was experiencing a significant outbreak.  The lock-downs delayed the "first wave" from extending to the other regions of the country but the virus is hitting them pretty hard now.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/14744/production/_113108738_optimised-us_cases_regions-nc.png)


This was just explained to you. Testing is not prioritized for the sick. This high a percentage rate based on "anyone can get a test"  is a sign of very large community spread. If that many people are carrying around and no realizing it, they can pass it to those more vulnerable. Which means hospitalizations and deaths could significantly rise in the coming weeks.

So yes the cases going up with this amount of testing is alarming and a bad sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 09:35:36 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 02:20:09 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 01:16:51 PM
Quote from: jmacswimmer on June 28, 2020, 01:09:57 PM
Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html
Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

Europe has handled this better based on what metric?  According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control there has been 1.54 million cases and 176k deaths in the European Economic Area (EEA).   America has 2.56 million cases yet only 127k deaths.  America has more robust testing (resulting in a million more cases) and fewer deaths than the EEA.... based on the data how is Europe handling this a lot better?? 

(https://i.imgur.com/pwH26a8.png)
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Well, our cases are increasing right now and their cases are decreasing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 10:26:33 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 28, 2020, 09:35:36 PM
Well, our cases are increasing right now and their cases are decreasing.

Since April 30th daily testing has nearly tripled in the United States while daily testing has actually decreased in the UK during the same time period.  It's easy for the numbers to drop on the back side of a pandemic if testing isn't increasing.  I don't disagree that the cases are rising in the United States but a consistent rise in daily tests over the past 2 months is largely the reason.  Nationwide there has been a bump in percentage positive tests (largely due to outbreaks in Arizona, California, Texas, South Carolina, and Florida) and that is why we are seeing daily cases really taking off... but the spike in daily cases are magnified by the fact we are testing so many more people now than we were in early April. 

You can look at the raw numbers and say America is doing a poor job simply because daily cases are increasing.  That would be a superficial view of the situation but that's exactly what the media is going to be doing for the next 2 months so you might as well join in on the fun.

(https://i.imgur.com/oUmGVuk.png)
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?time=..&country=GBR~USA
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 11:04:58 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 28, 2020, 09:34:14 PM
This was just explained to you. Testing is not prioritized for the sick. This high a percentage rate based on "anyone can get a test"  is a sign of very large community spread. If that many people are carrying around and no realizing it, they can pass it to those more vulnerable. Which means hospitalizations and deaths could significantly rise in the coming weeks.

So yes the cases going up with this amount of testing is alarming and a bad sign.

What can i say of course it isn't great that there is a significant rise in cases in some states.  But did you really think Florida, Texas, and Arizona - who were largely spared from the virus in March/April - would just magically avoid it when they started to reopen?  No doubt more people are catching the virus in certain states (evidenced by the rising percentage positive tests) but it's nowhere near as bad as what New York was facing in April (which has been my main point over the past few posts.. just because we are seeing record high cases doesn't mean things are that bad).  At its worse there were 1,000 deaths a day in NY.  California being double the population of NY could potentially see 2,000 deaths per day if they get hit similarly hard.  Today California is averaging 59 deaths a day due to COVID which is 28% fewer deaths than its peak average of 82 deaths on April 23rd.   So even with a tripling in daily cases in California since April 23rd, there has been a 28% reduction in deaths.  Increased cases doesn't necessarily equate to increased deaths... California being a good example of this.  Just pump the brakes a little.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 28, 2020, 11:22:20 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 28, 2020, 12:36:18 PM
In Wichita, we are currently up to five restaurants that have reopened and then had to close as a result of employees contracting covid-19 or being exposed to someone who has it.

I think we are beyond that phase here in New York, including upstate. Testing is easy and readily available - for a few weeks there you could drive up to DIY testing sites, but more recently, appointments are being required. These are typically booked online for your choice of time (in 15-minute blocks) the next day. Test results are guaranteed to be emailed within 24 hours, but often much sooner - I have heard several reports through the grapevine of results being obtained in 1-2 hours.
As such, a deep cleaning of the facility in question and negative test result from all employees can be done in 48 hours or less, so it seems unlikely that a business would have to officially "close" for any significant length of time, although I'm not sure how this has been working in practice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 28, 2020, 11:42:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 28, 2020, 11:22:20 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 28, 2020, 12:36:18 PM
In Wichita, we are currently up to five restaurants that have reopened and then had to close as a result of employees contracting covid-19 or being exposed to someone who has it.

I think we are beyond that phase here in New York, including upstate. Testing is easy and readily available - for a few weeks there you could drive up to DIY testing sites, but more recently, appointments are being required. These are typically booked online for your choice of time (in 15-minute blocks) the next day. Test results are guaranteed to be emailed within 24 hours, but often much sooner - I have heard several reports through the grapevine of results being obtained in 1-2 hours.

As such, a deep cleaning of the facility in question and negative test result from all employees can be done in 48 hours or less, so it seems unlikely that a business would have to officially "close" for any significant length of time, although I'm not sure how this has been working in practice.

Testing is not that readily available here--you have to phone and wait for a callback, which typically comes the next day if you have symptoms, or a week later (if at all) if you don't.  We can only dream of being able to book them online.  Some of the restaurants that had to close did opt to sanitize and re-open within a few days, but not all have.  Reopening as quickly as we have has done nothing for business owners' confidence that the pandemic is under control locally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on June 29, 2020, 07:57:38 AM
CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases (https://reason.com/2020/06/28/cdc-antibody-studies-confirm-huge-gap-between-covid-19-infections-and-known-cases/)

Some food for thought.

QuoteThe CDC analyzed blood samples drawn for routine tests unrelated to COVID-19 from patients in New York City, Connecticut, South Florida, Missouri, Utah, and western Washington state. Although these samples may not be representative of the general population, they provide a clearer picture of virus prevalence than screening limited to people who sought virus tests because they had symptoms consistent with COVID-19 or because they were in close contact with known carriers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 08:28:14 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on June 28, 2020, 11:04:58 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 28, 2020, 09:34:14 PM
This was just explained to you. Testing is not prioritized for the sick. This high a percentage rate based on "anyone can get a test"  is a sign of very large community spread. If that many people are carrying around and no realizing it, they can pass it to those more vulnerable. Which means hospitalizations and deaths could significantly rise in the coming weeks.

So yes the cases going up with this amount of testing is alarming and a bad sign.

What can i say of course it isn't great that there is a significant rise in cases in some states.  But did you really think Florida, Texas, and Arizona - who were largely spared from the virus in March/April - would just magically avoid it when they started to reopen?  No doubt more people are catching the virus in certain states (evidenced by the rising percentage positive tests) but it's nowhere near as bad as what New York was facing in April (which has been my main point over the past few posts.. just because we are seeing record high cases doesn't mean things are that bad).  At its worse there were 1,000 deaths a day in NY.  California being double the population of NY could potentially see 2,000 deaths per day if they get hit similarly hard.  Today California is averaging 59 deaths a day due to COVID which is 28% fewer deaths than its peak average of 82 deaths on April 23rd.   So even with a tripling in daily cases in California since April 23rd, there has been a 28% reduction in deaths.  Increased cases doesn't necessarily equate to increased deaths... California being a good example of this.  Just pump the brakes a little.


Increased cases, while not necessarily increasing the the death rate, will undoubtedly lead to more deaths.  The problem was the opening up without reasonable restrictions AND the last of a robust contact tracing program.  Other countries have showed what can be done with both of those.  We failed because we didn't have the patience to be reasonable with our reopening and our leadership had no desire to significantly invest in contact tracing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 09:59:49 AM
https://covidtracking.com/blog/why-changing-covid-19-demographics-in-the-us-make-death-trends-harder-to

What we know: the death lag

According to the CDC, the average period from symptom onset to death is about two weeks. The average lag between death and the reporting of a death is just over seven days.

New daily positive cases only began to exceed the plateau of the previous two weeks around June 18-19, which means that an increase in deaths as a result of the rise in new cases would not be expected to show up until July.

This may be one reason why the US deaths trend currently differs from Brazil and India. In those, cases have risen consistently; the current surge in the US comes after a decline and a plateau.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 11:48:09 AM
Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 29, 2020, 12:17:32 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 09:59:49 AM
https://covidtracking.com/blog/why-changing-covid-19-demographics-in-the-us-make-death-trends-harder-to

What we know: the death lag

According to the CDC, the average period from symptom onset to death is about two weeks. The average lag between death and the reporting of a death is just over seven days.

New daily positive cases only began to exceed the plateau of the previous two weeks around June 18-19, which means that an increase in deaths as a result of the rise in new cases would not be expected to show up until July.

Good link.  Nationally it appears cases have been solidly rising for the past two weeks yet average deaths continues to decline.  This is not what we saw in New York  back in April where the peak in deaths only lagged the peak in new cases by 3 days.  How long before we actually see deaths start to rise?  I'm not complaining but i'd argue that enough time has elapsed where it should have already happened (especially in somes states where case positivity rates have been rising for over a month).
 
(https://images.ctfassets.net/o2ll9t4ee8tq/5cr2vrKOCkDo4loRxlWhyd/dca1f8e559b34f30a4c7fbd3335fb443/image3.png?w=1196&h=682&q=50)

(https://i.imgur.com/j85Bo7B.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 12:26:58 PM
I think its pretty hard to have an apples-to-apples comparison between what was happening as this was emerging and what is happening now.  The testing environment is different.  How doctors manage cases is different.  How data is reporting may be different.

I mean, we will know by about mid to late July right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 12:38:40 PM
Lengthy video on the process of production of vaccines, lots of COVID stuff tossed in because it was topical:

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 11:48:09 AM
Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 12:59:44 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 11:48:09 AM
Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.


Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 01:38:54 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 12:59:44 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 11:48:09 AM
Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.


Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless.

It matters because brief mask-on visit for pickup is probably much less hazardous than long mask-off dine-in. Hot food is likely safe enough anyway.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 02:27:29 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 01:38:54 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 12:59:44 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 11:48:09 AM
Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.


Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless.

It matters because brief mask-on visit for pickup is probably much less hazardous than long mask-off dine-in. Hot food is likely safe enough anyway.   


Right but the point is that increased visits to restaurants is followed by increased positive tests.  It doesn't really matter if its for sit down or take out, but I think everybody realizes its due to sit down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 02:34:33 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 02:27:29 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 01:38:54 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 12:59:44 PM
Quote from: kalvado on June 29, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on June 29, 2020, 11:48:09 AM
Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.


Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless.

It matters because brief mask-on visit for pickup is probably much less hazardous than long mask-off dine-in. Hot food is likely safe enough anyway.   


Right but the point is that increased visits to restaurants is followed by increased positive tests.  It doesn't really matter if its for sit down or take out, but I think everybody realizes its due to sit down.
That's why I think it would be grat to have separate take-out and eat-in data. But sometimes you can only have the data you can have, and not the data you want... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on June 29, 2020, 02:37:16 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 06, 2020, 06:33:03 PM
Arizona has a slightly higher population than Massachusetts yet Massachusetts has seen 10x the number of COVID deaths.  Will Arizona be spared from this pandemic or is their spike in cases still coming?   

(https://i.imgur.com/euiuKAk.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=Arizona&location=Massachusetts&doublingtime=3

Revisiting this post from early May.   Arizona has most definitely seen a spike in cases yet their deaths have not risen significantly.  Arizona has a long way to go before they reach the high of 1,223 weekly reported deaths Massachusetts faced back in April.  Right now Arizona is reporting 244 weekly reported deaths.  For the last month Arizona has basically been experiencing an exponential rise in daily cases with roughly a 3-day doubling time.  During this exponential growth of cases, why hasn't there been a rise in deaths similar to what Massachusetts saw when they underwent their exponential growth in cases?  Here is a graph of the reported cases and deaths from each state:

(https://i.imgur.com/BiDYlRj.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 29, 2020, 03:31:58 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 28, 2020, 02:35:49 AM
I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

Hey now, a typical Lowe's is larger than some New England states!   :biggrin:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 29, 2020, 03:53:41 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 29, 2020, 03:31:58 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 28, 2020, 02:35:49 AM
I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

Hey now, a typical Lowe's is larger than some New England states!   :biggrin:

Mid-Atlantic states, too: I think I could clinch Delaware's counties faster than Lowe's aisles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on June 29, 2020, 07:27:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on June 29, 2020, 03:53:41 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 29, 2020, 03:31:58 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 28, 2020, 02:35:49 AM
I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

Hey now, a typical Lowe's is larger than some New England states!   :biggrin:

Mid-Atlantic states, too: I think I could clinch Delaware's counties faster than Lowe's aisles.

You can pass through all three counties in about 30 minutes (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/38.917178,-75.4021549/39.3100514,-75.5969597/@39.1517264,-75.673919,10.35z), so you'd have a good shot. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning. (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html)  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning. (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html)  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

That's ridiculous.  We should wear masks indoors in public places or where people are crowded together, but not when alone outside.  Instead of responding to the best scientific evidence, people are reacting to the stupidest elements of some "other side."  I remember a time when we worked together to accomplish the goal we all had.  I remember what the world was like before it was full of ignorant experts.  We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:22:59 PM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning. (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html)  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

That's ridiculous.  We should wear masks indoors in public places or where people are crowded together, but not when alone outside.  Instead of responding to the best scientific evidence, people are reacting to the stupidest elements of some "other side."  I remember a time when we worked together to accomplish the goal we all had.  I remember what the world was like before it was full of ignorant experts.  We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 29, 2020, 09:44:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:22:59 PM
California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" sub on Reddit, and people in California say it's never enforced outdoors (although a few people apparently do wear masks outdoors).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:47:18 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 29, 2020, 09:44:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:22:59 PM
California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" sub on Reddit, and people in California say it's never enforced outdoors (although a few people apparently do wear masks outdoors).

How can it be enforced even if that was a priority?  No police department has that kind of man power to stop people on side walks and parking lots for not wearing a mask.  The order should have been limited to indoor settings or places where a 6 foot clearance couldn't be maintained.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 29, 2020, 10:05:38 PM
Here's an interesting 20-minute listen regarding mask wearing that hits on a lot of the aspects that have been discussed in this thread.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-now-know-about-face-masks/

(Reply 4500! :coffee:)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on June 29, 2020, 10:41:04 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 29, 2020, 09:44:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:22:59 PM
California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" sub on Reddit, and people in California say it's never enforced outdoors (although a few people apparently do wear masks outdoors).

That sub seems to not consider scientific data or reliable sources at all. Probably should be banned like the other problematic fake news subs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on June 29, 2020, 10:42:54 PM
Quote from: Bruce on June 29, 2020, 10:41:04 PM
That sub seems to not consider scientific data or reliable sources at all. Probably should be banned like the other problematic fake news subs.

So the American Academy of Pediatrics and the BBC aren't reliable sources?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 11:27:40 PM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PMThat's ridiculous.  We should wear masks indoors in public places or where people are crowded together, but not when alone outside.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:22:59 PMCalifornia has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

One of the TV stations local to me has a story (https://www.kake.com/story/42305739/kansas-will-require-face-masks-in-public-beginning-friday) saying that the requirement to wear a mask outdoors will apply only in public settings where six-foot social distancing cannot be maintained.  But I don't know that this is based on actual sight of any draft verbiage.

I think the majority of the motivation is to get mask wearing in public indoor spaces to 100% or close to it.  If that happens, it may be enough to tamp down the current surge in cases, since large gatherings are basically no longer happening outdoors--Fourth of July fireworks and large events like Taco Fest have been cancelled, and we are in the dog days of summer.  I'm skeptical there is any real interest in attempting to enforce a mask order outdoors, with or without a carve-out for open spaces.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 11:49:11 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 11:27:40 PM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PMThat's ridiculous.  We should wear masks indoors in public places or where people are crowded together, but not when alone outside.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:22:59 PMCalifornia has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

One of the TV stations local to me has a story (https://www.kake.com/story/42305739/kansas-will-require-face-masks-in-public-beginning-friday) saying that the requirement to wear a mask outdoors will apply only in public settings where six-foot social distancing cannot be maintained.  But I don't know that this is based on actual sight of any draft verbiage.

I think the majority of the motivation is to get mask wearing in public indoor spaces to 100% or close to it.  If that happens, it may be enough to tamp down the current surge in cases, since large gatherings are basically no longer happening outdoors--Fourth of July fireworks and large events like Taco Fest have been cancelled, and we are in the dog days of summer.  I'm skeptical there is any real interest in attempting to enforce a mask order outdoors, with or without a carve-out for open spaces.

That's all fine and good, but I would rather not have enforceable provisions added just for show.  It kind of undermines the goal of attempting to get more people to wear make more when things like almost universal outdoor usage is mandated.  Emergency orders/procedures should be two things; exacting and to the point as possible.  If any part gets complicated or questionable it undermines pretty everything else in the order/procedure. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on June 30, 2020, 08:49:49 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html

"The coronavirus is spreading too rapidly and too broadly for the U.S. to bring it under control, Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday."

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on June 30, 2020, 08:59:36 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PM
We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

The coronavirus was caused by the Northwest Arkansas airport? That's a new one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on June 30, 2020, 09:00:41 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 30, 2020, 08:59:36 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PM
We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

The coronavirus was caused by the Northwest Arkansas airport? That's a new one.

Northwest Arkansas saw a huge spike recently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on June 30, 2020, 09:12:58 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 30, 2020, 08:59:36 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PM
We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

The coronavirus was caused by the Northwest Arkansas airport? That's a new one.
RNA I assume. That would be Ulawa Airport in Madagascar. Probably he's talking about recent plague epidemics over there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on June 30, 2020, 10:50:29 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 30, 2020, 08:59:36 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PM
We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

The coronavirus was caused by the Northwest Arkansas airport? That's a new one.

Well, considering all the people flying in to visit the house of Sam.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 30, 2020, 11:01:06 AM
Quote from: US71 on June 30, 2020, 10:50:29 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on June 30, 2020, 08:59:36 AM
Quote from: wxfree on June 29, 2020, 09:01:56 PM
We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

The coronavirus was caused by the Northwest Arkansas airport? That's a new one.

Well, considering all the people flying in to visit the house of Sam.....

Does this all involve the Langoliers and "scaring the little girl"  somehow?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning. (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html)  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

From what I read, the order won't be published until Thursday–the day before it takes effect.  Supposedly, it won't take effect until Friday in order to give businesses time to prepare, but–considering we don't know what the order says exactly–how will they know how to prepare?  I know my company's HR director has already been in my office and didn't say one word about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on June 30, 2020, 01:04:24 PM
I would imagine the mask order wouldn't apply to businesses that aren't "open to the public", but that can be a bit of an ambiguous phrase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 01:47:11 PM
A question for those of you who are already under mask orders:

My wife and I are planning to go out to eat for a date on the day this takes effect.  How does wearing a mask in a restaurant work, exactly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on June 30, 2020, 02:03:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 01:47:11 PM
A question for those of you who are already under mask orders:

My wife and I are planning to go out to eat for a date on the day this takes effect.  How does wearing a mask in a restaurant work, exactly?

Generally you wear it until after you've ordered your food and your drinks have arrived, then you take it off until you've finished and are ready for the bill and then put it back on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: route56 on June 30, 2020, 02:30:12 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
From what I read, the order won't be published until Thursday–the day before it takes effect.  Supposedly, it won't take effect until Friday in order to give businesses time to prepare, but–considering we don't know what the order says exactly–how will they know how to prepare?  I know my company's HR director has already been in my office and didn't say one word about it.

It would likely be along the lines of this Order from Douglas County, Kansas (https://ldchealth.org/DocumentCenter/View/3011/MarcellinoOrderRegardingMasks062920_updated), which take effect tomorrow, July 1.

Basically, this order requires masks indoors and/or where 6-foot physical distancing is not feasible. Masks can be taken off while working in a single-person office or while eating.

Also exempt are the deaf/hard of hearing, and children under 5. The order states that children under 2 should NEVER wear a face covering, as they face a greater risk of suffocating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 30, 2020, 02:55:13 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 01:47:11 PM
A question for those of you who are already under mask orders:

My wife and I are planning to go out to eat for a date on the day this takes effect.  How does wearing a mask in a restaurant work, exactly?

Most places make you wear them until you sit down, most are big on standing six feet part from the next group waiting.  The tables have been spaced at least a 8-10 places I've been to.  All the waiters have been wearing masks but not all the cashiers if they are behind a screen of some kind. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 03:01:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 30, 2020, 02:55:13 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 01:47:11 PM
A question for those of you who are already under mask orders:

My wife and I are planning to go out to eat for a date on the day this takes effect.  How does wearing a mask in a restaurant work, exactly?

Most places make you wear them until you sit down, most are big on standing six feet part from the next group waiting.  The tables have been spaced at least a 8-10 places I've been to.  All the waiters have been wearing masks but not all the cashiers if they are behind a screen of some kind. 

Oh, we've been out to eat a few times in the last couple of months already, so we know what the restaurant situation is like.  Just didn't how, for example, ordering works with masks on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on June 30, 2020, 03:24:47 PM
Quote from: route56 on June 30, 2020, 02:30:12 PM
Also exempt are the deaf/hard of hearing

Why?  Wouldn't they want to read the lips of the others they are with, and can't because of their masks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on June 30, 2020, 06:32:54 PM
Brewster County, Texas, now has 130 confirmed cases.  That's where Big Bend National Park is.  When the park re-opened, there were no cases in the county.  Now it's reached 1.4% of the population.  The county is purple on the JHU "confirmed by population" map.  It increased from 85 to 130 in one day.  People complained about parks being closed.  It's true that being in the park can be very lonely and very safe, but what people don't think about is the way there.  They pass through small towns and stop for supplies.  People from all over the country are bringing the virus to Alpine and Terlingua.  There are four ICU beds in the region, covering three counties with a total area the size of Maryland, and larger hospitals are hundreds of miles away.  They need to close the park again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on June 30, 2020, 06:42:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 03:01:01 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 30, 2020, 02:55:13 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 01:47:11 PM
A question for those of you who are already under mask orders:

My wife and I are planning to go out to eat for a date on the day this takes effect.  How does wearing a mask in a restaurant work, exactly?

Most places make you wear them until you sit down, most are big on standing six feet part from the next group waiting.  The tables have been spaced at least a 8-10 places I've been to.  All the waiters have been wearing masks but not all the cashiers if they are behind a screen of some kind. 

Oh, we've been out to eat a few times in the last couple of months already, so we know what the restaurant situation is like.  Just didn't how, for example, ordering works with masks on.

Only one place we frequent (that isn't fast food) requires an order be placed at the cashier stand with masks on.  Other than that one it is pretty much normal once we take our seats and the masks come off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on June 30, 2020, 07:51:54 PM
Quote from: Bruce on June 29, 2020, 10:41:04 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on June 29, 2020, 09:44:34 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 29, 2020, 09:22:59 PM
California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" sub on Reddit, and people in California say it's never enforced outdoors (although a few people apparently do wear masks outdoors).

That sub seems to not consider scientific data or reliable sources at all. Probably should be banned like the other problematic fake news subs.
I would say "13k members? They have more important matters to worry about", but they banned over 2k subreddits including the_donald, many of which probably have far fewer members just yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on June 30, 2020, 09:59:07 PM
0 deaths today in Massachusetts!  :clap:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 30, 2020, 09:59:07 PM
0 deaths today in Massachusetts!  :clap:
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths. MA still has room for improvement!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Henry on July 01, 2020, 10:18:39 AM
It's going to be very interesting to see what happens on the Fourth, as many places have had to either cancel or scale back their plans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 01, 2020, 10:36:31 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Well, it was outside the US, so that at least makes the scenario plausible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
Two of Kentucky's constitutional statewide elected officers have filed or joined in lawsuits against the governor's executive orders.

The agriculture commissioner joined the owner of an orchard in Scott County in filing a suit because they have been unable to get state guidance on how to reopen their playground and for-rent event venue.

And today, the attorney general is joining a lawsuit filed by three northern Kentucky businesses. In their complaint, the AG is asking that ALL of the governor's executive orders regarding closures or limitations on the number of customers allowed be repealed.

In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.

It's going to get interesting here. The governor has already lost suits regarding protests and prohibiting in-person church services. At last count, I think he's 0-fer-6 in virus-related suits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Does being reanimated as undead technically count as -1 fatality?  Seriously that sounds the start of almost every zombie movie over the last two decades.   :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 01:17:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Does being reanimated as undead technically count as ...

No, I'm sure it doesn't technically count as anything.  Because it doesn't happen, I doubt anyone has made an official ruling on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 01, 2020, 02:09:01 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on June 30, 2020, 09:59:07 PM
0 deaths today in Massachusetts!  :clap:

We technically had negative-41 due to some sort of "data correction". They reported "zero" since the overall death count went down due to that correction.

Of course every headline ignored that fact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.

This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 01, 2020, 04:12:56 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.

Basically this. But what's worse than the governor issuing orders unilaterally is when some unelected bureaucrat issues these orders. It's happened in lots of cities and states all over America during this crisis.

A governor at least has more accountability to the people, and is supposed to consider the advice of different advisers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 04:20:20 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.

Viral epidemics have been "the world now" for decades, at least.  While this one is worse than others in the past, the government mechanism to deal with a weather incident simply shouldn't be the same mechanism that deals with an epidemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 01, 2020, 04:34:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 01:17:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Does being reanimated as undead technically count as ...

No, I'm sure it doesn't technically count as anything.  Because it doesn't happen, I doubt anyone has made an official ruling on it.

As someone who runs a D&D game, I have to make official rulings on things like that all the time... (In this case, I feel like it would depend on the exact spell used and whether the dead person were simply being used as a zombie-like puppet or if they had truly been brought back to life.)

Probably the most hilarious ruling I had to decide was what would happen if someone banished the President of the United States to another plane of existence. (The ruling was that under the text of the Constitution, the president would be unable to discharge the duties and powers of his office from another plane of existence, and therefore the Vice President would become President.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 04:49:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 01:17:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Does being reanimated as undead technically count as ...

No, I'm sure it doesn't technically count as anything.  Because it doesn't happen, I doubt anyone has made an official ruling on it.

I would assume if a dead body was reanimated that at minimum some life functions would resume.  We might call that "undead"  but that would likely falling under the definition of a living organism again. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 02 Park Ave on July 01, 2020, 04:51:41 PM
When one passes an UV light over an object to kill off any Virus on it, is that considered illuminating or irradiating the object?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 04:59:00 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 04:49:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 01:17:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Does being reanimated as undead technically count as ...

No, I'm sure it doesn't technically count as anything.  Because it doesn't happen, I doubt anyone has made an official ruling on it.

I would assume if a dead body was reanimated that at minimum some life functions would resume.  We might call that "undead"  but that would likely falling under the definition of a living organism again.
Given that plants are alive, it doesn't take a lot of functions to call something alive.
Human death is legally defined in terms of brain activity, and even that is not a clear cut leading to legal battles about bodies in vegetative conditions (with some nasty outcomes)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 05:05:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 12:27:09 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning. (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html)  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

From what I read, the order won't be published until Thursday–the day before it takes effect.  Supposedly, it won't take effect until Friday in order to give businesses time to prepare, but–considering we don't know what the order says exactly–how will they know how to prepare?  I know my company's HR director has already been in my office and didn't say one word about it.

We asked HR whether we would need to wear masks to work beginning Friday.  She said she won't know till Thursday.  And she's off work both Thursday and Friday, so I guess she'll text us to let us know.   :hmm:

(Fortunately, we're off Friday as well for the holiday.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 01, 2020, 05:28:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 05:05:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 12:27:09 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning. (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html)  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

From what I read, the order won't be published until Thursday–the day before it takes effect.  Supposedly, it won't take effect until Friday in order to give businesses time to prepare, but–considering we don't know what the order says exactly–how will they know how to prepare?  I know my company's HR director has already been in my office and didn't say one word about it.

We asked HR whether we would need to wear masks to work beginning Friday.  She said she won't know till Thursday.  And she's off work both Thursday and Friday, so I guess she'll text us to let us know.   :hmm:

(Fortunately, we're off Friday as well for the holiday.)

Sounds like people will do whatever they can do to make an easy situation difficult.

Masks?  What masks?  What kind of masks?  Where do we need to specifically where the masks?  Do we need to where them here?  Or here?  Or here?  Or here?  What exceptions will there be?  What if I'm walking in the hallway? Or in my office?  Or in the parking garage?  What if?  What if? What if?

This whole situation would be mostly under control if people didn't hunt down 99 exceptions to an easy concept.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 01, 2020, 05:55:24 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 01, 2020, 05:28:32 PMSounds like people will do whatever they can do to make an easy situation difficult.

Masks?  What masks?  What kind of masks?  Where do we need to specifically where the masks?  Do we need to where them here?  Or here?  Or here?  Or here?  What exceptions will there be?  What if I'm walking in the hallway? Or in my office?  Or in the parking garage?  What if?  What if? What if?

Not to worry.  Our local elected officials have the situation under control, having just approved a $21,000 $80,000 line item for chiller space to store dead bodies (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243934667.html).

Edit:  Added link and corrected dollar amount.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on July 01, 2020, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Does being reanimated as undead technically count as -1 fatality?  Seriously that sounds the start of almost every zombie movie over the last two decades.   :rolleyes:
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/4841502.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 07:22:04 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 01, 2020, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Does being reanimated as undead technically count as -1 fatality?  Seriously that sounds the start of almost every zombie movie over the last two decades.   :rolleyes:
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/4841502.jpg)

Yes, but not everyone has access to the Genesis Planet. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 01, 2020, 07:55:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 07:22:04 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 01, 2020, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Does being reanimated as undead technically count as -1 fatality?  Seriously that sounds the start of almost every zombie movie over the last two decades.   :rolleyes:
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/4841502.jpg)

Yes, but not everyone has access to the Genesis Planet.
GEN-I-SIS???
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 01, 2020, 08:05:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 07:22:04 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 01, 2020, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Does being reanimated as undead technically count as -1 fatality?  Seriously that sounds the start of almost every zombie movie over the last two decades.   :rolleyes:
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/4841502.jpg)

Yes, but not everyone has access to the Genesis Planet. 

Or Gaiilfreyan bioloigy ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 01, 2020, 08:39:04 PM
Quote from: 02 Park Ave on July 01, 2020, 04:51:41 PM
When one passes an UV light over an object to kill off any Virus on it, is that considered illuminating or irradiating the object?

All light is electromagnetic radiation, so you can never go wrong with irradiating...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 09:59:09 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 01, 2020, 07:55:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 07:22:04 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 01, 2020, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Does being reanimated as undead technically count as -1 fatality?  Seriously that sounds the start of almost every zombie movie over the last two decades.   :rolleyes:
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/4841502.jpg)

Yes, but not everyone has access to the Genesis Planet.
GEN-I-SIS???

Does what Nintendon't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 10:00:51 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 01, 2020, 08:05:18 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 07:22:04 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 01, 2020, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 09:21:19 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 01, 2020, 06:04:12 AM
One day Finland had -1 (negative one) covid deaths.

I can only assume that someone woke up down in the morgue.  But, because that death had already been recorded on a previous day, it had to be removed from the current day's tally instead.

More likely a death that had previously been recorded as COVID was redesignated as not-COVID related on a day where there were no other COVID deaths to subtract it from.

Oh, come on!  You think they'd admit they made a mistake without someone waking up in the morgue?

Does being reanimated as undead technically count as -1 fatality?  Seriously that sounds the start of almost every zombie movie over the last two decades.   :rolleyes:
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/4841502.jpg)

Yes, but not everyone has access to the Genesis Planet. 

Or Gaiilfreyan bioloigy ;)

I thought the Doctor was way past the number of regenerations he/she could have?  Did they ever actually give explanation for that in the show?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 10:17:13 PM
Big Bend National Park is closing again.  The county now has 136 cases, with hundreds of tests pending.  This is in a very rural area.  They're in the top 20 counties nationally for spread per capita.  There's now a positive case in the park, someone who lives there.  Public entry will be closed tomorrow.  They aren't allowing backcountry camping right now and have only one campground open, so it should be easy to find everyone staying in the park.  The news release doesn't say whether they'll be allowed to stay until they leave or will be sent away immediately.

https://www.nps.gov/bibe/learn/news/bbnp-closed-2020-07-01.htm (https://www.nps.gov/bibe/learn/news/bbnp-closed-2020-07-01.htm)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 10:22:55 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 10:17:13 PM
Big Bend National Park is closing again.  The county now has 136 cases, with hundreds of tests pending.  This is in a very rural area.  They're in the top 20 counties nationally for spread per capita.  There's now a positive case in the park, someone who lives there.  Public entry will be closed tomorrow.  They aren't allowing backcountry camping right now and have only one campground open, so it should be easy to find everyone staying in the park.  The news release doesn't say whether they'll be allowed to stay until they leave or will be sent away immediately.

https://www.nps.gov/bibe/learn/news/bbnp-closed-2020-07-01.htm (https://www.nps.gov/bibe/learn/news/bbnp-closed-2020-07-01.htm)

Looks like it's because the Park Staff popped up with a bunch of infections.  This is part of the reason why National Forests have been such a reprieve for all this virus stuff, they have way less manpower and visitors largely are on their own. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Revive 755 on July 01, 2020, 10:41:13 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 10:00:51 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 01, 2020, 08:05:18 PM
Or Gaiilfreyan bioloigy ;)

I thought the Doctor was way past the number of regenerations he/she could have?  Did they ever actually give explanation for that in the show?

The Doctor got a new set of regenerations in the last Matt Smith special.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: STLmapboy on July 02, 2020, 01:48:51 AM
Found a Corona beer distribution truck in March 2020 Miami GSV:
https://www.google.pl/maps/@25.7736435,-80.3206657,3a,75y,239.18h,77.61t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s8r2MJ7n-Gcbh2DkrIr5Olw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 02, 2020, 07:43:50 AM
^^^

As did I in Chapala back in February.  We're a little past the Corona Beer Virus at this point, but that was once a thing.

Quote from: Revive 755 on July 01, 2020, 10:41:13 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 01, 2020, 10:00:51 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 01, 2020, 08:05:18 PM
Or Gaiilfreyan bioloigy ;)

I thought the Doctor was way past the number of regenerations he/she could have?  Did they ever actually give explanation for that in the show?

The Doctor got a new set of regenerations in the last Matt Smith special.

Ah, that would have been after I really stopped watching regularly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 02, 2020, 07:51:38 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 02, 2020, 07:43:50 AM
We're a little past the Corona Beer Virus at this point, but that was once a thing.

It's a tired thing that's not really funny anymore, but, you're still going to be associating the beer with the virus for a long, long, time if not forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 02, 2020, 08:20:45 AM
Sort of a tasteless joke when 120,000 people are dead from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 02, 2020, 09:04:19 AM
Quote from: STLmapboy on July 02, 2020, 01:48:51 AM
Found a Corona beer distribution truck in March 2020 Miami GSV:
https://www.google.pl/maps/@25.7736435,-80.3206657,3a,75y,239.18h,77.61t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s8r2MJ7n-Gcbh2DkrIr5Olw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

Is that what happened back in March?  Someone opened a can?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 02, 2020, 09:08:11 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 01, 2020, 05:28:32 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 01, 2020, 05:05:21 PM

Quote from: kphoger on June 30, 2020, 12:27:09 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 29, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning. (https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html)  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

From what I read, the order won't be published until Thursday–the day before it takes effect.  Supposedly, it won't take effect until Friday in order to give businesses time to prepare, but–considering we don't know what the order says exactly–how will they know how to prepare?  I know my company's HR director has already been in my office and didn't say one word about it.

We asked HR whether we would need to wear masks to work beginning Friday.  She said she won't know till Thursday.  And she's off work both Thursday and Friday, so I guess she'll text us to let us know.   :hmm:

(Fortunately, we're off Friday as well for the holiday.)

Sounds like people will do whatever they can do to make an easy situation difficult.

Masks?  What masks?  What kind of masks?  Where do we need to specifically where the masks?  Do we need to where them here?  Or here?  Or here?  Or here?  What exceptions will there be?  What if I'm walking in the hallway? Or in my office?  Or in the parking garage?  What if?  What if? What if?

This whole situation would be mostly under control if people didn't hunt down 99 exceptions to an easy concept.

Companies are told to prepare for the order, yet they can't know what the order actually says until the day before it takes effect.

Yeah, blame everyone else for the confusion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 02, 2020, 09:55:10 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 02, 2020, 07:51:38 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 02, 2020, 07:43:50 AM
We're a little past the Corona Beer Virus at this point, but that was once a thing.

It's a tired thing that's not really funny anymore, but, you're still going to be associating the beer with the virus for a long, long, time if not forever.

It was more amusing in Mexico because it's as common there as Budweiser is here.  Our family kept asking me at the house every night if I wanted "another Corona Virus."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 02, 2020, 10:21:51 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 02, 2020, 09:55:10 AM

Quote from: webny99 on July 02, 2020, 07:51:38 AM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 02, 2020, 07:43:50 AM
We're a little past the Corona Beer Virus at this point, but that was once a thing.

It's a tired thing that's not really funny anymore, but, you're still going to be associating the beer with the virus for a long, long, time if not forever.

It was more amusing in Mexico because it's as common there as Budweiser is here.  Our family kept asking me at the house every night if I wanted "another Corona Virus."

Of course, that was back when half of Mexico thought the virus was made up by American politicians.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 02, 2020, 01:13:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 02, 2020, 09:04:19 AM
Is that what happened back in March?  Someone opened a can?

Someone, somewhere, opened a can of something, according to theories out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 02, 2020, 02:23:41 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 02, 2020, 01:13:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 02, 2020, 09:04:19 AM
Is that what happened back in March?  Someone opened a can?

Someone, somewhere, opened a can of something, according to theories out there.
According to some very reliable information, cats are trying to take over the world..
(https://i.imgur.com/XNrKkOq.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 02, 2020, 02:29:45 PM
[nit] That picture would be funnier if they had used the name of the virus, rather than the name of the disease, on the label. [/pick]
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.

This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.

A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 02, 2020, 03:15:15 PM
Full text for the Kansas mandatory mask order is now available. (https://governor.kansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200702093130003.pdf)

Although Sedgwick County has not yet taken action, Johnson County has already voted not to relax the mask mandate.

After studying it, I have determined that I will have to make zero modifications to my current way of wearing a mask.  My main concerns with the order had to do with the possibility of having to carry the mask in the passenger cabin of my car (due to it no longer being legal to climb out and walk to the trunk bare-faced) or wear it when walking around the neighborhood.  The mask requirement does not apply in either case since I am always able to maintain social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 02, 2020, 03:18:00 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 02, 2020, 03:15:15 PM
Full text for the Kansas mandatory mask order is now available. (https://governor.kansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200702093130003.pdf)

Although Sedgwick County has not yet taken action, Johnson County has already voted not to relax the mask mandate.

After studying it, I have determined that I will have to make zero modifications to my current way of wearing a mask.  My main concerns with the order had to do with the possibility of having to carry the mask in the passenger cabin of my car (due to it no longer being legal to climb out and walk to the trunk bare-faced) or wear it when walking around the neighborhood.  The mask requirement does not apply in either case since I am always able to maintain social distancing.

At our office, it means we'll wear masks when getting up to leave the room but not when we're just sitting in the office.  I share a huge room with one other co-worker, who sits 15 feet away from me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 02, 2020, 03:33:26 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.

This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.

A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.


And given all that is going on, it probably wouldn't be the greatest look for them to be advocating for a massive reopening at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: dvferyance on July 02, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
Quote from: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
This is the kind of power our founding fathers were so much against.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 02, 2020, 06:59:05 PM
The governor of Texas has issued an order requiring masks in public buildings.  It applies to buildings "open to the public," so it doesn't cover workplaces like factories and offices where the public is not allowed.  Those situations are better handled by the employer, since conditions are so variable.  It doesn't apply outside as long as people maintain an appropriate distance.

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-establishes-statewide-face-covering-requirement-issues-proclamation-to-limit-gatherings (https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-establishes-statewide-face-covering-requirement-issues-proclamation-to-limit-gatherings)

I agree with the need for the order, but it's been months, plenty of time for the legislature to convene and debate and start making rules the normal way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 02, 2020, 10:11:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on July 02, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
Quote from: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
This is the kind of power our founding fathers were so much against.

I'm about curbing executive power as much as the next guy, but in 1776 they still believed illness was caused by imbalance of humors in the body.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 02, 2020, 10:45:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 02, 2020, 10:11:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on July 02, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
Quote from: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
This is the kind of power our founding fathers were so much against.

I'm about curbing executive power as much as the next guy, but in 1776 they still believed illness was caused by imbalance of humors in the body.

It still needs to go through the legislature, not a dictator-wannabe.  I don't give a damn what party it is, or what the issue is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on July 03, 2020, 01:59:30 AM
Washington's mask order now has some teeth: businesses are now required to kick out anyone who isn't wearing a mask without an appropriate medical reason to not wear one.

I hope it gets used. My own area has very poor rates of mask usage at grocery stores, while Seattle-area stores I visited are at 100% (with door checks by security).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 03, 2020, 02:10:33 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 03, 2020, 01:59:30 AM
Washington's mask order now has some teeth: businesses are now required to kick out anyone who isn't wearing a mask without an appropriate medical reason to not wear one.

Are some people going to present a bogus "appropriate medical reason" to not wear a mask? Are stores going to require a doctor's note? I know you said "some teeth" (my emphasis), perhaps with these issues in mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 03, 2020, 03:31:41 AM
Quote from: Brandon on July 02, 2020, 10:45:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 02, 2020, 10:11:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on July 02, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
Quote from: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
This is the kind of power our founding fathers were so much against.

I'm about curbing executive power as much as the next guy, but in 1776 they still believed illness was caused by imbalance of humors in the body.

It still needs to go through the legislature, not a dictator-wannabe.  I don't give a damn what party it is, or what the issue is.

So, to get anything done through the legislature, a bill needs to:
- Be written and introduced by a member
- Be referred to the appropriate committee
- Marked up/amended by the committee
- Pass the committee vote
- Be placed on the voting calendar by the speaker/majority leader
- Marked up/amended by the full chamber
- Pass the full chamber vote
- Be referred to the appropriate committee in the other chamber
- Marked up/amended by the committee in the other chamber
- Pass the committee vote in the other chamber
- Be placed on the voting calendar by the speaker/majority leader in the other chamber
- Marked up/amended by the full chamber in the other chamber
- Pass the full chamber vote in the other chamber
- Go through reconciliation to resolve differences between the two chambers' bills
- Be signed by the executive

While all of these things are happening, more people are becoming infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 03, 2020, 04:09:24 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 03, 2020, 03:31:41 AM
Quote from: Brandon on July 02, 2020, 10:45:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 02, 2020, 10:11:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on July 02, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
Quote from: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
This is the kind of power our founding fathers were so much against.

I'm about curbing executive power as much as the next guy, but in 1776 they still believed illness was caused by imbalance of humors in the body.

It still needs to go through the legislature, not a dictator-wannabe.  I don't give a damn what party it is, or what the issue is.

So, to get anything done through the legislature, a bill needs to:
- Be written and introduced by a member
- Be referred to the appropriate committee
- Marked up/amended by the committee
- Pass the committee vote
- Be placed on the voting calendar by the speaker/majority leader
- Marked up/amended by the full chamber
- Pass the full chamber vote
- Be referred to the appropriate committee in the other chamber
- Marked up/amended by the committee in the other chamber
- Pass the committee vote in the other chamber
- Be placed on the voting calendar by the speaker/majority leader in the other chamber
- Marked up/amended by the full chamber in the other chamber
- Pass the full chamber vote in the other chamber
- Go through reconciliation to resolve differences between the two chambers' bills
- Be signed by the executive

While all of these things are happening, more people are becoming infected.

That long process is the reason executives have emergency powers, but this situation has been going on for months, and will continue for months more.  There's been enough time for legislatures to study and debate.  The problem I have with the situation is that they're not even trying (in some states).  I can't think of anything that the governors are doing that's especially bad, but that still isn't how law should be made.  Legislatures should at least be in session to keep the governors in check.  If they approve of all of the executive orders, then they don't need to do anything, or they can pass legislation making the executive order a proper statute.  They should be ready to respond if a governor starts going the wrong direction.  In states in which only the governor can call a special session, maybe we need constitutional amendments that automatically put the legislature in session after 30 days of emergency executive orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 03, 2020, 05:04:51 AM
Quote from: wxfree on July 03, 2020, 04:09:24 AM
That long process is the reason executives have emergency powers, but this situation has been going on for months, and will continue for months more.  There's been enough time for legislatures to study and debate.  The problem I have with the situation is that they're not even trying (in some states).  [...] If they approve of all of the executive orders, then they don't need to do anything, or they can pass legislation making the executive order a proper statute.

Then there isn't a problem, is there? Unless they are constitutionally unable to act, then by declining to act, they are tacitly approving the emergency orders. Of course, they should be able to stop the executive if things get out of control. But so far that doesn't seem to be happening.

For what it's worth, polling shows approval of how state governors have been handling the situation higher than the federal elected officials of either branch. (Non-elected executive-branch officials and organizations, like Fauci and the CDC, also poll higher.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 03, 2020, 08:40:03 AM
Quote from: Brandon on July 02, 2020, 10:45:22 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 02, 2020, 10:11:35 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on July 02, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
Quote from: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
This is the kind of power our founding fathers were so much against.

I'm about curbing executive power as much as the next guy, but in 1776 they still believed illness was caused by imbalance of humors in the body.

It still needs to go through the legislature, not a dictator-wannabe.  I don't give a damn what party it is, or what the issue is.


Apparently not.  I love how y'all have become a bunch of Constitutional scholars now.  Has anyone looked into the state laws of Pennsylvania to see why he is able to do this?

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 03, 2020, 08:41:41 AM
Quote from: dvferyance on July 02, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
Quote from: qguy on July 02, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 02, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 01, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 01, 2020, 12:12:47 PM
In addition, one state legislator is pre-filing a bill that would require legislative approval of any state of emergency or related executive orders that last longer than two weeks.
This really is the way it should be.  Executives issue emergency orders in emergency times, but when there's a long-term problem, the legislative body should convene and start gathering information and debating how to proceed.  Emergency orders shouldn't be used until the problem is gone.  Restoring normal government doesn't mean that the problem is over, it just means that the slower part of government has had time to catch up.  We can't treat this like a tornado or a flood, a situation that will be over before the legislature can respond.  This is the world now, and government has to adjust.  In states where the legislature isn't in session and can't convene themselves, the governors should be calling special sessions instead of assuming that rule by decree is good enough until the next session.
A special session won't happen here. The governor is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis. Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities. The governor isn't even really talking to legislative leaders about what he's doing, even to the chairs of the interim committees. Here, only the governor can call a special session, and the governor alone sets the agenda. He's hesitant to call a special session to deal with anything regarding this because he knows there would probably be some wiggle room for the legislators to rein him in.

We have a lot of people wondering where the legislature is in dealing with some of his overreaching orders. They don't realize that outside of the session, or outside the scope of interim committees, the legislature is powerless to do anything.

We have a similar situation here in Pennsylvania. The governor is still issuing executive orders like he's the only game in town. There has been virtually 100% opacity in decision-making (including ignoring official FOIA-type requests) and zero consultation with the legislative branch. It's been executive fiat with no representational input.
This is the kind of power our founding fathers were so much against.


Really?  Look up the Alien and Sedition Acts and tell me about how much the founders were against limiting freedoms.

Honestly people who say stuff like this need to understand their history better. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 03, 2020, 09:06:35 AM
Quote from: oscar on July 03, 2020, 02:10:33 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 03, 2020, 01:59:30 AM
Washington's mask order now has some teeth: businesses are now required to kick out anyone who isn't wearing a mask without an appropriate medical reason to not wear one.

Are some people going to present a bogus "appropriate medical reason" to not wear a mask? Are stores going to require a doctor's note? I know you said "some teeth" (my emphasis), perhaps with these issues in mind.

And under HIPAA, are you even allowed to ask what that appropriate medical reason is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 03, 2020, 09:19:15 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 03, 2020, 09:06:35 AM
Quote from: oscar on July 03, 2020, 02:10:33 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 03, 2020, 01:59:30 AM
Washington's mask order now has some teeth: businesses are now required to kick out anyone who isn't wearing a mask without an appropriate medical reason to not wear one.

Are some people going to present a bogus "appropriate medical reason" to not wear a mask? Are stores going to require a doctor's note? I know you said "some teeth" (my emphasis), perhaps with these issues in mind.

And under HIPAA, are you even allowed to ask what that appropriate medical reason is?
Probably nothing beyond simple "i cannot" statement. However, at thaT point one needs to explicitly lie while facing an actual person - a much higher threshold compared to just ignoring messages. And maybe face an offer of free curbside delivery....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 03, 2020, 09:54:20 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 03, 2020, 09:06:35 AM
Quote from: oscar on July 03, 2020, 02:10:33 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 03, 2020, 01:59:30 AM
Washington's mask order now has some teeth: businesses are now required to kick out anyone who isn't wearing a mask without an appropriate medical reason to not wear one.

Are some people going to present a bogus "appropriate medical reason" to not wear a mask? Are stores going to require a doctor's note? I know you said "some teeth" (my emphasis), perhaps with these issues in mind.

And under HIPAA, are you even allowed to ask what that appropriate medical reason is?

You are allowed to ask for documentation that there is an appropriate medical reason, thus my reference to a doctor's note (which need not specify what exactly is the reason).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 03, 2020, 10:02:22 AM
Quote from: Henry on July 01, 2020, 10:18:39 AM
It's going to be very interesting to see what happens on the Fourth, as many places have had to either cancel or scale back their plans.
Many areas of Michigan cancelled fireworks back in April or May. Also, many areas have a fiscal year that begins on July 1, and removing the fireworks was an easy budget cut.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 03, 2020, 03:39:29 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 03, 2020, 04:09:24 AM
That long process is the reason executives have emergency powers, but this situation has been going on for months, and will continue for months more. There's been enough time for legislatures to study and debate. The problem I have with the situation is that they're not even trying (in some states).

They're not even trying because there's no functional purpose to passing legislation that matches what existing executive orders already say. It'd achieve nothing but putting on a show for the sake of procedure. It would also in some cases be politically risky for legislators to go on the record explicitly supporting or opposing specific provisions which may be wise but unpopular with their constituents. Sitting back and letting the executive handle it is a "safe" course of (in)action because the legislator won't suffer any negative consequences at the ballot box for the rules when they didn't make them.

They can, of course, at any time pass legislation overruling any executive orders they don't like - the fact that they are not means they are implicitly approving of what the executive is doing.




In other noteworthy news, both effective July 1st:
- Connecticut has resumed charging 10 cents for disposable grocery bags. So it's back to lugging the grody reusable bags around.
- Residents of MA, RI, CT, NY, and NJ are now exempted from needing to quarantine or get a negative test in order to travel to Maine (VT and NH were already exempted since June 8 and remain so).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on July 03, 2020, 04:12:21 PM
Plus, if the legislature made laws for things like a mask mandate, wouldn't that mean that we'd be more likely to be stuck with them once the pandemic is over?  The governor would just need to issue an executive order repealing the earlier order... the legislature would need to go through the whole process all over again, and you'd definitely have people pontificating about how masks should remain a requirement because they'd also hinder the spread of the flu and the common cold.  For another example, you'd have people arguing that malls should never reopen because Urbanism good, suburbs bad.

Legislatures strike me as a better way to handle permanent things than temporary ones.  Guess what other piece of legislation was sold as temporary?  The Patriot Act.  Theoretically temporary emergency legislation, still here, probably never going away.  So, people who want the legislative branch to be handling these things, be careful what you wish for... you just might get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 03, 2020, 04:14:00 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 03, 2020, 03:39:29 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 03, 2020, 04:09:24 AM
That long process is the reason executives have emergency powers, but this situation has been going on for months, and will continue for months more. There's been enough time for legislatures to study and debate. The problem I have with the situation is that they're not even trying (in some states).

They're not even trying because there's no functional purpose to passing legislation that matches what existing executive orders already say. It'd achieve nothing but putting on a show for the sake of procedure. It would also in some cases be politically risky for legislators to go on the record explicitly supporting or opposing specific provisions which may be wise but unpopular with their constituents. Sitting back and letting the executive handle it is a "safe" course of (in)action because the legislator won't suffer any negative consequences at the ballot box for the rules when they didn't make them.

They can, of course, at any time pass legislation overruling any executive orders they don't like - the fact that they are not means they are implicitly approving of what the executive is doing.




In other noteworthy news, both effective July 1st:
- Connecticut has resumed charging 10 cents for disposable grocery bags. So it's back to lugging the grody reusable bags around.
- Residents of MA, RI, CT, NY, and NJ are now exempted from needing to quarantine or get a negative test in order to travel to Maine (VT and NH were already exempted since June 8 and remain so).

My objection doesn't apply to every state.  In Texas, the legislature cannot convene outside of a regular session unless the governor calls a special session.  Regular sessions happen only 140 days every other year (and the first 30 of those days they can't pass any bills except on topics declared to be an emergency by the governor).  They have no independent legislative power until February.  I don't believe we should have long-term government by executive order, without the legislature at least having the ability to meet and decide if they approve.  Where the legislature is free to legislate whenever they want, that isn't a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 04, 2020, 12:36:14 AM
The Maverik gas station/C-store chain in some southwestern states (like the one I shopped at today in southern Utah) have an odd sign at store entrances, telling you not to enter if in the last 24 hours your body temperature has risen above 99F, or fallen below 94F. The first leaves little margin above the normal 98.6F body temperature. But the second seemed pretty weird, since I had not heard of Covid-19 (or any other contagious disease) symptoms including subnormal temperatures, not just fever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tidecat on July 04, 2020, 02:28:33 AM
Quote from: oscar on July 04, 2020, 12:36:14 AM
The Maverik gas station/C-store chain in some southwestern states (like the one I shopped at today in southern Utah) have an odd sign at store entrances, telling you not to enter if in the last 24 hours your body temperature has risen above 99F, or fallen below 94F. The first leaves little margin above the normal 98.6F body temperature. But the second seemed pretty weird, since I had not heard of Covid-19 (or any other contagious disease) symptoms including subnormal temperatures, not just fever.
I have a friend whose husband got it. Her husband was wrapped up in electric blankets and was still struggling to feel warm for well over a day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 04, 2020, 04:06:59 AM
Quote from: vdeane on July 03, 2020, 04:12:21 PM
Plus, if the legislature made laws for things like a mask mandate, wouldn't that mean that we'd be more likely to be stuck with them once the pandemic is over?  The governor would just need to issue an executive order repealing the earlier order... the legislature would need to go through the whole process all over again, and you'd definitely have people pontificating about how masks should remain a requirement because they'd also hinder the spread of the flu and the common cold.  For another example, you'd have people arguing that malls should never reopen because Urbanism good, suburbs bad.

Legislatures strike me as a better way to handle permanent things than temporary ones.  Guess what other piece of legislation was sold as temporary?  The Patriot Act.  Theoretically temporary emergency legislation, still here, probably never going away.  So, people who want the legislative branch to be handling these things, be careful what you wish for... you just might get it.

You could pass a law explicitly granting powers to declare a public health emergency and to require mask-wearing to the Department of Health and/or the Governor. That still gives the power to the executive branch, but it makes it harder to challenge in court.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 04, 2020, 05:17:12 AM
Quote from: oscar on July 04, 2020, 12:36:14 AM
The Maverik gas station/C-store chain in some southwestern states (like the one I shopped at today in southern Utah) have an odd sign at store entrances, telling you not to enter if in the last 24 hours your body temperature has risen above 99F, or fallen below 94F. The first leaves little margin above the normal 98.6F body temperature. But the second seemed pretty weird, since I had not heard of Covid-19 (or any other contagious disease) symptoms including subnormal temperatures, not just fever.
They probably feel that zombie apocalypse is coming and try to protect themselves against walking deads?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 04, 2020, 12:21:33 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 04, 2020, 04:06:59 AMYou could pass a law explicitly granting powers to declare a public health emergency and to require mask-wearing to the Department of Health and/or the Governor. That still gives the power to the executive branch, but it makes it harder to challenge in court.

That is exactly how emergency-management statutes in many states work.  The governor declares an emergency and then gains the ability to make enforceable orders while the emergency is in effect, subject to certain safeguards such as orders sunsetting with the end of the emergency, review by a legislative body (in Kansas, the State Finance Council) required to extend the term of the emergency, and a ban on chaining separate emergency declarations to hang onto enhanced rulemaking powers indefinitely.

It is not a perfect system--when one of Governor Kelly's orders was challenged in Kansas, the state supreme court eventually rendered a decision where one of the concurring opinions noted that it was constitutionally murky for the legislature to devolve lawmaking power onto the executive branch, even temporarily.  But it does allow the executive to respond agilely to an emergency, relying on up-to-the-minute advice in technically complex situations, while providing for a measure of democratic oversight to prevent a Machtergreifung.

There are, to my mind, two main weaknesses.  First, emergency management laws have evolved over time to address situations that are limited in duration (such as tornadoes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc.) because those are the most frequently encountered.  Provisions for pandemics are "bolted on" and, as we are finding, they don't square very well with the uncertainties associated with a new and poorly understood disease that has been allowed to escape containment and will be around indefinitely, probably until a vaccine is developed.  And second, any form of emergency response requires cooperation.  If a member of one party is in charge of the response and the other party then slides into a state of reflexive opposition, then it becomes a huge struggle to secure measures that subsequent analysis may well prove to be necessary but not sufficient to contain the pandemic.

Right now, Kansas is under a statewide mandatory mask order issued by the governor.  Under the emergency management statute as it stood at the time the first covid-19 case was confirmed in Kansas, that would be the end of the story.  However, maintaining the pandemic response required the Democratic governor to compromise with the Republican legislature in such a way that counties now have the ability to opt out of statewide orders.  As a result, in Sedgwick County we have just had two huge fights (one in the county commission, the other in the Wichita city council) to secure a mandatory mask order that covers only the part of the county population that lives in Wichita.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 04, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
Massachusetts is opening Phase 3 (of 4) on Monday. They absolutely should not be doing this. Cases have stopped going down. They're constant or increasing the slightest bit, being nothing like Florida or Arizona, but I expect them to go up pretty soon.

NJ, CT, and NYC appear to have done the same thing; they are now staying steady instead of decreasing like they were before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 04, 2020, 12:33:07 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 04, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
Massachusetts is opening Phase 3 (of 4) on Monday. They absolutely should not be doing this. Cases have stopped going down. They're constant or increasing the slightest bit, being nothing like Florida or Arizona, but I expect them to go up pretty soon.

NJ, CT, and NYC appear to have done the same thing; they are now staying steady instead of decreasing like they were before.

Number of tests have been going way up. Yesterday had by far the most tests of any day so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 04, 2020, 01:18:19 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 04, 2020, 12:21:33 PM
Right now, Kansas is under a statewide mandatory mask order issued by the governor.  Under the emergency management statute as it stood at the time the first covid-19 case was confirmed in Kansas, that would be the end of the story.  However, maintaining the pandemic response required the Democratic governor to compromise with the Republican legislature in such a way that counties now have the ability to opt out of statewide orders.  As a result, in Sedgwick County we have just had two huge fights (one in the county commission, the other in the Wichita city council) to secure a mandatory mask order that covers only the part of the county population that lives in Wichita.

At this time, I'm only aware of four counties in Kansas that either accepted the governor's mask order or had already written their own mask order.  All of those counties I'm aware of are in the Manhattan—KC area.

My wife and I went grocery shopping yesterday during a strange legal time in which (a) the Kansas governor had issued a statewide mask order, (b) Sedgwick County had opted out of that order, and (c) the Wichita city council was in session deciding whether or not to issue a local city mask order.  Whereas a week ago I estimate that 50% of shoppers were wearing masks, I estimate that 7 out of 8 were wearing them during that time yesterday.  My wife and I wore our masks, not just because of the evolving legal situation but also because we knew grocery shopping on a Friday afternoon the day before July 4 is not a good way to avoid crowded spaces.  We planned on a crowded store in which maintaining proper distancing wouldn't be likely.

What I see in the data right now is that case levels in Kansas began rising sharply immediately upon the implementation of Phase 3.  Because of the exact correspondence of those two things, I suspect people were already letting their guard down during Phase 2.  Here in Sedgwick County, cases began rising sharply about a week or two after the implementation of Phase 3.  My belief is that–at least where you and I live–this is now a more critical time of the outbreak than we've seen so far.  The slope of the line on Aatish Bhatia's tracker is steeper for Kansas now than it had been previously, and so is that on Sedgwick County's dashboard.

We're not alone, either.  Oklahoma and Missouri, just like Kansas, had already flattened the curve and were already on a NY-like downward trend.  Now they, like Kansas, are on a steep upward trend.  Arkansas started that upward trend a month before we did, and it's too soon to tell Nebraska's trajectory.




In Mexican news, 15 states are currently on "Red" level and 17 are on "Orange" level.  While four states recently graduated from red to orange, five others went back from orange to red again–including the state our good friends live in.  They had just decided to head north to Wichita, and then Mexico announced that the Ciudad Acuña and Piedras Negras border crossings would halt anyone coming in from Texas who isn't either a citizen or carrying an official notice from an employer stating they perform essential work in Mexico.  We suspect that order–currently only set to last for two weeks and only applicable to two crossings–may expand.  Now they're not sure that, if they come north, they'll be allowed back south again at the end of the summer.




Quote from: vdeane on July 03, 2020, 04:12:21 PM
Plus, if the legislature made laws for things like a mask mandate, wouldn't that mean that we'd be more likely to be stuck with them once the pandemic is over?  The governor would just need to issue an executive order repealing the earlier order... the legislature would need to go through the whole process all over again, and you'd definitely have people pontificating about how masks should remain a requirement because they'd also hinder the spread of the flu and the common cold.  For another example, you'd have people arguing that malls should never reopen because Urbanism good, suburbs bad.

Legislatures strike me as a better way to handle permanent things than temporary ones.  Guess what other piece of legislation was sold as temporary?  The Patriot Act.  Theoretically temporary emergency legislation, still here, probably never going away.  So, people who want the legislative branch to be handling these things, be careful what you wish for... you just might get it.

Before the Kansas governor issued the executive order, various local officials stated the following:

Quote from: Sedgwick County Sheriff Jeff Easter
"Our belief now on the surface is we are not seeing anything that we can enforce by law."

Quote from: Comanche County Sheriff Mike Lehl
"There is no law in the State of Kansas that states that you will/shall wear a mask, therefore there will be absolutely no lawful enforcement within Comanche County."

Quote from: Bourbon County Sheriff's Office statement
"It's my understanding that our Sheriff's office has no authority to enforce the order as it stands."

Quote from: City of St Marys Police and Fire Department statement
"As with the Governor's previous orders, they are not laws, and they are not enforceable."

Here, at least, infraction is punishable by fine–basically like a lawsuit.  If someone violates the order and the police are called, then they can file a report and send it to the prosecutor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 05, 2020, 12:31:29 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 04, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
NJ, CT, and NYC appear to have done the same thing; they are now staying steady instead of decreasing like they were before.

I mean, there is a floor to how low they physically can go. The closer to zero you get the slower the case counts will drop, even with all else being equal - an Rt<1 will mathematically result in a curve that asymptotically approaches zero.

Connecticut is now finding under 100 new cases/day after having peaked around 1200 in April:
(https://i.imgur.com/iITirQ2.png)
(the gray shaded period at the end represents days from which not all test results have yet been reported)

But has the number actually leveled out or is this just asymptotic behavior? Too early to be quite sure.

Even if it has leveled out though... under 100 new cases/day is totally sustainable as far as healthcare system capacity is concerned, so we can ride this out like this until there's a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 01:02:26 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 04, 2020, 12:33:07 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 04, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
Massachusetts is opening Phase 3 (of 4) on Monday. They absolutely should not be doing this. Cases have stopped going down. They're constant or increasing the slightest bit, being nothing like Florida or Arizona, but I expect them to go up pretty soon.

NJ, CT, and NYC appear to have done the same thing; they are now staying steady instead of decreasing like they were before.

Number of tests have been going way up. Yesterday had by far the most tests of any day so far.

While in many jurisdictions the "cases are up because there's more testing" isn't true (I've been following stats in Tennessee because my next trip to Memphis is dependent on local COVID stats; testing is up, but the new case count is growing faster than the number of tests given; you can see it also in the increase in positivity rates.)...CT seems to be an exception.   

In CT in the most recent week the positivity was 0.8%, while the prior week the positivity rate was 1.4%.  (By comparison, a 10% positivity rate is one of the criteria for qualifying for the CT/NY/NJ quarantine.)

When I went out today (the 4th), I saw a lot of people ignoring social distancing in general, and ignoring masks at yard parties, so I wouldn't be surprised if CT loses ground soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 05, 2020, 09:03:11 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 01:02:26 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 04, 2020, 12:33:07 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 04, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
Massachusetts is opening Phase 3 (of 4) on Monday. They absolutely should not be doing this. Cases have stopped going down. They're constant or increasing the slightest bit, being nothing like Florida or Arizona, but I expect them to go up pretty soon.

NJ, CT, and NYC appear to have done the same thing; they are now staying steady instead of decreasing like they were before.

Number of tests have been going way up. Yesterday had by far the most tests of any day so far.

While in many jurisdictions the "cases are up because there's more testing" isn't true (I've been following stats in Tennessee because my next trip to Memphis is dependent on local COVID stats; testing is up, but the new case count is growing faster than the number of tests given; you can see it also in the increase in positivity rates.)...CT seems to be an exception.   

In CT in the most recent week the positivity was 0.8%, while the prior week the positivity rate was 1.4%.  (By comparison, a 10% positivity rate is one of the criteria for qualifying for the CT/NY/NJ quarantine.)

When I went out today (the 4th), I saw a lot of people ignoring social distancing in general, and ignoring masks at yard parties, so I wouldn't be surprised if CT loses ground soon.
I don't believe that outdoor events are the main issue. It's indoors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 05, 2020, 09:59:34 AM
Yes. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/it-okay-go-beach/613849/

Keep the beaches open.  Closing them may promote more dangerous behavior.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 05, 2020, 11:06:33 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 05, 2020, 09:59:34 AM
Yes. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/it-okay-go-beach/613849/

Keep the beaches open.  Closing them may promote more dangerous behavior.
I have a better idea. Distribute some free cocaine. Not doing so  may promote more dangerous behavior.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 05, 2020, 11:51:56 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 05, 2020, 11:06:33 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 05, 2020, 09:59:34 AM
Yes. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/it-okay-go-beach/613849/

Keep the beaches open.  Closing them may promote more dangerous behavior.
I have a better idea. Distribute some free cocaine. Not doing so  may promote more dangerous behavior.

Using cocaine is far more dangerous than going to the beach.

And ironically enough, closing beaches may promote it if house parties (where drug use can be a thing) are a substitute leisure activity.

Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 01:02:26 AM
When I went out today (the 4th), I saw a lot of people ignoring social distancing in general, and ignoring masks at yard parties, so I wouldn't be surprised if CT loses ground soon.

You don't need masks at a yard party so long as you don't hang out closer than 6 feet from others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 05, 2020, 12:00:20 PM
The coast of Georgia and the northern half of Florida's Atlantic coast are getting more cases per capita than inland. I believe it was true for South Carolina a week ago, but I can only see current numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!). 

(https://i.imgur.com/nqCx7Wv.png)
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa

Daily tests were averaging around 150k when positive tests in April peaked at 34k.  Today we are testing nearly 650k.  If the same 150k daily tests were being performed today, there would only be around 12k positive tests as opposed to the 52k reported now.  Average daily cases and percentage positive tests have been increasing nationally since June 9th but daily deaths are still on the decline.  It's been nearly a month since this rise in cases started yet we haven't seen so much as a bump in deaths?   The longer we go without seeing a rise in deaths and you begin to question whether the virus is as deadly as it was early on during this pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 02:26:09 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!).

However, you are looking at data at a national level, when outbreaks are occurring on a local/regional basis.

When you look at national data, you blend what's happening in states like Florida and Connecticut.

In Florida, 7-day running average of tests administered increased by 18.2% for the week ended 4 July.  There was a 48.4% increase in the 7-day running average of new cases over the same timeframe.  The number of new cases grew MUCH faster than the number of new tests, so it is inaccurate in Florida to blame and increase in testing for the increase of cases.  The infection rate is simply getting worse there.

In Connecticut, on the other hand, the 7 day running average of tests administered increased by 124.0% for the week ended 2 July.  There was a 31.1% increase in the 7-day running average of new cases.  So, for Connecticut, it is appropriate to attribute the rate of growth of the case count to the increase of testing AND to observe that since the testing rate grew much faster than the new case rate, the (more tests=more cases) phenomenon masks that the infection rate declined over the period.

It could very well be possible that if you repeat this exercise in the other 54 states/district/territories of the US, you would observe a similar national growth in cases and testing.  However, that statistic would very likely be meaningless due to the loss of information of what's happening in specific parts of the country. 

I would also be careful about picking dates for comparing testing vs new cases.  It looks like "things started changing" in late May/early June, presumably due to fatigue and warm weather causing reduced compliance with pandemic protocols, lag from changes set in motion by states that opened up too quickly, etc. 

Regarding the lack of a change in death rates....that's an interesting one.   I believe the current thinking is that it's a combination of factors:

The emergence of a less-lethal strain of the coronavirus is a possibility (such a kinder, gentler version of the virus has been observed in the Mediterranean region and Middle East), but I haven't seen much literature supporting the idea of that being an explanation for current stats in the US.  Some of the literature I've read on recent mutation has suggested that the primary change occurring in the US is that the virus may be becoming easlier to transmit, if anything....with nothing being said about lethality or the potential for the nastier, longer-lasting non-lethal effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 05, 2020, 02:38:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!). 

Very impressive cherry-picking. :nod:

Let's try again with a start date of June 10th instead of May 10th. Now the positive tests go from 20,761 to 52,391 (+152%), while the total daily tests go from 429,207 to 644,415 (+50%). More testing leads to more positive tests...but not that many.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 05, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 05, 2020, 02:38:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!). 

Very impressive cherry-picking. :nod:

Let's try again with a start date of June 10th instead of May 10th. Now the positive tests go from 20,761 to 52,391 (+152%), while the total daily tests go from 429,207 to 644,415 (+50%). More testing leads to more positive tests...but not that many.


Not only that, but if you are testing more, you want the rate to go DOWN.  Not stay the same.  It means that a lot more people have the disease and can spread it to others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 03:42:13 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 05, 2020, 02:38:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!). 

Very impressive cherry-picking. :nod:

Let's try again with a start date of June 10th instead of May 10th. Now the positive tests go from 20,761 to 52,391 (+152%), while the total daily tests go from 429,207 to 644,415 (+50%). More testing leads to more positive tests...but not that many.

OK, but then why not pick April 10th?  Now the positive tests go from 34,229 to 52,391 (+53%), while the total daily tests go from 157,405 to 644,415 (+309%).  Comparing April 10th to today would be a better date to use to prove that increased testing results in increased positive tests.  But the reason i chose to compare June 10th to July 4th was because both dates had the same percentage positive tests.  To put things in perspective Florida (which has a slightly higher population than New York) is reporting 10k daily cases, which is the same number of daily cases New York was reporting during their peak in April.  At their worse New York was experiencing 1,000 daily deaths whereas right now Florida is averaging 45 daily deaths.  But since daily cases in Florida are as high as what New York was seeing when 1,000 people a day were dying, do we really expect daily deaths in Florida to increase from 45 to 1,000 over the next few weeks?   Of course not.  Until Florida starts seeing anywhere close to 1,000 deaths a day, things are NOWHERE near as bad as they were in April.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 05, 2020, 03:48:00 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 03:42:13 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 05, 2020, 02:38:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!). 

Very impressive cherry-picking. :nod:

Let's try again with a start date of June 10th instead of May 10th. Now the positive tests go from 20,761 to 52,391 (+152%), while the total daily tests go from 429,207 to 644,415 (+50%). More testing leads to more positive tests...but not that many.

OK, but then why not pick April 10th?  Now the positive tests go from 34,229 to 52,391 (+53%), while the total daily tests go from 157,405 to 644,415 (+309%).  Comparing April 10th to today would be a better date to use to prove that increased testing results in increased positive tests.  But the reason i chose to compare June 10th to July 4th was because both dates had the same percentage positive tests.  To put things in perspective Florida (which has a slightly higher population than New York) is reporting 10k daily cases, which is the same number of daily cases New York was reporting during their peak in April.  At their worse New York was experiencing 1,000 daily deaths whereas right now Florida is averaging 45 daily deaths.  But since daily cases in Florida are as high as what New York was seeing when 1,000 people a day were dying, do we really expect daily deaths in Florida to increase from 45 to 1,000 over the next few weeks?   Of course not.  Until Florida starts seeing anywhere close to 1,000 deaths a day, things are NOWHERE near as bad as they were in April.

April NYC is worse than current Florida. However, current Florida is worse than most of the country in April, now that it's in or near the lead in infection growth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 05, 2020, 04:37:14 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 03:42:13 PMBut the reason i chose to compare [May] 10th to July 4th was because both dates had the same percentage positive tests.
(fixed quote – June 10 was the starting date I chose, May 10 was yours)

Exactly my point. You knew the outcome you wanted to show, so you went back to find the exact starting date that would produce that outcome.

As you and I have both shown, you can use the same data to show whatever you want if you just pick the right parts of it to use.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 05:04:56 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 05, 2020, 04:37:14 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 03:42:13 PMBut the reason i chose to compare [May] 10th to July 4th was because both dates had the same percentage positive tests.
(fixed quote – June 10 was the starting date I chose, May 10 was yours)

Exactly my point. You knew the outcome you wanted to show, so you went back to find the exact starting date that would produce that outcome.

As you and I have both shown, you can use the same data to show whatever you want if you just pick the right parts of it to use.

Thank you for fixing that quote!  My larger point has always been that just because we are seeing record highs in daily cases doesn't mean things are worse now than they were back in April.  The first graphic shown in nearly every news report is the daily new cases and how we are seeing record highs.  But it's irresponsible for the media to continually show that graphic without putting it into context for the American people.  Many people will believe the virus is more widespread today than it was back in April simply because there are more daily cases.  Without consistently reporting the effects increased testing has on daily case counts, the American people may think the situation is much worse than it really is.  Why not focus on the fact that daily deaths have declined by over 75% and that deaths continue to decline nationally even as daily cases have been on the rise for about the past month.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 07:00:03 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 05:04:56 PMThank you for fixing that quote!  My larger point has always been that just because we are seeing record highs in daily cases doesn't mean things are worse now than they were back in April.  The first graphic shown in nearly every news report is the daily new cases and how we are seeing record highs.  But it's irresponsible for the media to continually show that graphic without putting it into context for the American people.

Sadly, most Americans (including too many news reporters) are functionally illiterate when it comes to statistics.  Thus the news reports get dumbed down.

The headlines should be:
It is probably fair to criticize headlines of "record cases" (nationally, or for individual states, or...) being distorted due to increased testing.   But it would also be fair to say that official case counts are metrics that are interesting but not particularly important.

Positivity rates, hospitalization rates, numbers of deaths are better metrics for looking at how the pandemic is going in the country or in a particular area.  They aren't perfect metrics -- positivity rates can be influenced by local testing criteria / local availability of test kits; some of the hospitalization metrics are confused by how different areas/different hospital systems are set up to account for surge capacity; and numbers of deaths might be being distorted by the changes in demographics of new cases and the evolution of treatment regimens -- and some of them are difficult for the public to understand.

But when you look at the available data, it becomes clear that within the past month/month-and-a-half, COVID has gotten out of control in some parts of the US.   That's what the real story ought to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 05, 2020, 11:51:56 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 01:02:26 AM
When I went out today (the 4th), I saw a lot of people ignoring social distancing in general, and ignoring masks at yard parties, so I wouldn't be surprised if CT loses ground soon.

You don't need masks at a yard party so long as you don't hang out closer than 6 feet from others.

I should have phrased my statement better.

I went out yesterday (the 4th).   I observed:
It is true that official mask guidelines indicate that masks are not needed if social distancing is observed (especially if outside, and especially if close-proximity contact with others is brief/incidental).  But the parties I saw seemed pretty "pre-COVID normal", leading me to wonder how much longer CT will hold the title of "best in the country" when it comes to having COVID under control.

I'll also note that while official guidelines do say masks are not particularly useful when social distancing is observed...it should also be remembered that the six-foot/two-meter rule was rather arbitrarily set, based on a study of a cough.  When folks look at more robust studies of how long aerosolized exhaled particulate matter can stay in the air, and that the mode of transmission seems to hinge on prolonged exposure to viral particles, there's an argument to be made that a better distance rule-of-thumb would be 3-5 meters, but-for the problem of not wanting updated guidelines to be ignored due to a change in guidelines being perceived as damaging health officials' credibility.

(C.f. some of the arguments raised by mask-opponents.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 05, 2020, 08:14:57 PM
I've seen people mock the six-foot rule guideline, as if they think we're being told that there's a shield that extends six feet, and that distance magically makes the difference between certain infection and certain non-infection.  One of the problems we have is how people have a hard time with the idea of how risk, and protection, is cumulative.  The difference between kissing someone and standing 6 feet away is probably more than the difference between being 6 feet away and being 12 feet away.  Guidelines have to be easy to understand and follow.  We can't say "spend no more than 5 seconds within a foot, no more than 20 seconds within two feet... and no more than 15 minutes within 6 feet" and expect anyone to remember it.  But if they want to dismiss the threat and mock those who take it seriously, they'll find some way to do it.  I especially enjoy reading about how a cloth mask won't filter anything, how viruses and droplets fly right through, except that it will block things that are almost infinitely small, such as oxygen and carbon dioxide molecules, and make you suffocate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on July 05, 2020, 09:52:29 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 05, 2020, 12:00:20 PM
The coast of Georgia and the northern half of Florida's Atlantic coast are getting more cases per capita than inland. I believe it was true for South Carolina a week ago, but I can only see current numbers.

Still the same. My county (Charleston) has more cases than any other county in the state, even the more populated Greenville County. Over 3,800 actives.

https://carolinasportsthoughts.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/active-coronavirus-cases-in-south-carolina-7-5/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 05, 2020, 09:55:16 PM
So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on July 05, 2020, 09:57:14 PM
There's also the fact that asking people to stand 9-15 feet apart would start to get impractical very fast.  Things like grocery shopping are already impractical if one is to actually strictly observe the 6' rule.  Expanding it would make such things impossible.  There's always a compromise between what is needed to reduce the spread of the virus and what is practical to actually do.  If there wasn't, we'd just throw everyone into solitary confinement for a few weeks and the disease would be eradicated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 05, 2020, 10:08:00 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 05, 2020, 09:55:16 PM
So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?

No, especially that can't be reasonably calculated.  Realistically this will probably be a thing with COVID probably at minimum for another 12-18 months.  The way I see it things like masks and restrictions going all over the place will be around for awhile.  Personally I guess that I can't accept that as "normal"  and do what I can to keep up with the things I feel are necessary to do. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Ben114 on July 05, 2020, 10:24:53 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 05, 2020, 09:55:16 PM
So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?

I'm hoping to go visit colleges in spring / summer 2021.

(Luckily for me, I want to stay within the Northeast, and it's unlikely of any bad hotspot now that we have it under control.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 05, 2020, 10:40:16 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 05, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 05, 2020, 02:38:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!). 

Very impressive cherry-picking. :nod:

Let's try again with a start date of June 10th instead of May 10th. Now the positive tests go from 20,761 to 52,391 (+152%), while the total daily tests go from 429,207 to 644,415 (+50%). More testing leads to more positive tests...but not that many.


Not only that, but if you are testing more, you want the rate to go DOWN.  Not stay the same.  It means that a lot more people have the disease and can spread it to others.

Not necessarily. You're probably finding a lot more asymptomatic people, and I'm pretty sure I read over the weekend yet another study that pooh-poohs the concept of asymptomatic transmission. What's the difference between being asymptomatic and not knowing you have it vs. being asymptomatic and testing positive? Nothing, really. Higher numbers of asymptomatic tests doesn't really mean anything. The important numbers are hospitalizations and deaths. I think the statistics are still that 40 percent of positive tests are asymptomatic, 20 percent exhibit only very mild symptoms, and only about 10 percent requiring hospitalization, especially among the elderly and those with significant comorbidities. In Kentucky, fully 60 percent of the deaths have come from those who were in nursing homes. And isn't the national fatality rate 4 out of every 1,000? That's a 99.6 percent survival rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 05, 2020, 10:54:01 PM
Not everyone who survives will recover.  But maybe the tragedy here isn't how many people die or suffer organ damage or extreme pain, maybe the tragedy here is how many people simply don't care because to do so would be inconvenient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: renegade on July 05, 2020, 11:13:15 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 05, 2020, 09:55:16 PM
So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?
Yeah, me:  a chili run on my way down to the Bourbon Trail.   :awesomeface:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on July 06, 2020, 12:50:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 05, 2020, 09:55:16 PM
So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?

Nope.  I've learned better.  :)

I'm probably to blame for the pandemic.  I was SO proud of myself, getting nice and organized, and getting travel plans in place for most of the year very early on.  Given how I shuttle among CT, QC, and TN, I've found that if I lock in "defensible" travel dates, I can usually get work and my father's doctors to accommodate my already-made travel plans....and for 2020 I had those plans made in such a way that I wouldn't wear myself out with back-to-back  (or back-to-back-to-back) trips.

And then the pandemic went and made all those plans moot.  I don't know when the US/Canadian border will reopen, so it's pointless for me to plan to go to QC, and I don't know when my father's assisted living will be open for visitors / when Connecticut will stop requiring people arriving from Tennessee to quarantine upon arrival.  So, in a couple of weeks, I will be able to say "I haven't spent this much time in one place in my memory/probably in my life."

Pre-pandemic, I had 4-5 trips queued up:
Those are still "on the list", although I'm becoming more inclined to drop the cruise and just fly to someplace and simply "be unplugged" for a week or two, and I'm tempted to add a cross-country rail trip after having watched a few YouTube videos.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 06, 2020, 01:51:51 AM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 06, 2020, 12:50:24 AM
when Connecticut will stop requiring people arriving from Tennessee to quarantine upon arrival. 

So, Connecticut does not actually require this, although they would prefer people believe and act as if they do. Examine things closely and you will note that there is no mechanism for enforcement in place.

On the other hand, New York is able to fine people found to be in violation - so it is an actual requirement there. They've also started making people arriving at airports fill out forms, which turns up the heat as well since now you have to either go on official record as being required to quarantine or commit perjury. Though I do wonder what happens if you simply refuse to complete the form.


Regardless, the whole thing is a bunch of security theater anyway. Last night the mayor of Hoboken was on TV making noise about how "even if you have been tested and tested negative you still have to quarantine for 14 days". Why? You afraid people are going to spread a disease it was just confirmed they don't have?
Indeed, this creates a perverse incentive for people to not go and get tested after returning from travel, in order to avoid having any questions asked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 06, 2020, 08:17:36 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 06, 2020, 01:51:51 AM

Regardless, the whole thing is a bunch of security theater anyway. Last night the mayor of Hoboken was on TV making noise about how "even if you have been tested and tested negative you still have to quarantine for 14 days". Why? You afraid people are going to spread a disease it was just confirmed they don't have?
Indeed, this creates a perverse incentive for people to not go and get tested after returning from travel, in order to avoid having any questions asked.
Because negative test doesn't mean " confirmed they don't have virus". Two tests with a week interval seem to be a somewhat reasonable "no" at best.
That's why I don't understand if tests are actually that useful - the only case they are actually important for a patient is when a person has actual symptoms, and then a proper treatment may be chosen. But since there is no good treatment anyway...
Otherwise, it is mostly about public health - quarantine of those who may be spreaders - travellers, close contacts, confirmed positive cases. it is about meeting any ONE criteria..
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 06, 2020, 08:35:35 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 05, 2020, 10:40:16 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 05, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 05, 2020, 02:38:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 05, 2020, 01:16:42 PM
According to testing data compiled by Johns Hopkins, there has been a 2.4X increase in positive tests from May 10th to July 4th (21,602 vs. 52,391).  But this 2.4X increase in positive tests can be attributed to a 2.4X increase in daily testing during the same time period (267,961 vs 644,415).  Both May 10th and July 4th data had the same percentage positivity rate of 8.1%.  More testing leads to more positive tests (shocking results!). 

Very impressive cherry-picking. :nod:

Let's try again with a start date of June 10th instead of May 10th. Now the positive tests go from 20,761 to 52,391 (+152%), while the total daily tests go from 429,207 to 644,415 (+50%). More testing leads to more positive tests...but not that many.


Not only that, but if you are testing more, you want the rate to go DOWN.  Not stay the same.  It means that a lot more people have the disease and can spread it to others.

Not necessarily. You're probably finding a lot more asymptomatic people, and I'm pretty sure I read over the weekend yet another study that pooh-poohs the concept of asymptomatic transmission. What's the difference between being asymptomatic and not knowing you have it vs. being asymptomatic and testing positive? Nothing, really. Higher numbers of asymptomatic tests doesn't really mean anything. The important numbers are hospitalizations and deaths. I think the statistics are still that 40 percent of positive tests are asymptomatic, 20 percent exhibit only very mild symptoms, and only about 10 percent requiring hospitalization, especially among the elderly and those with significant comorbidities. In Kentucky, fully 60 percent of the deaths have come from those who were in nursing homes. And isn't the national fatality rate 4 out of every 1,000? That's a 99.6 percent survival rate.


Even if the 40% figure is right, and nobody really knows if it is, that is still A LOT of poeple who have the disease with the abilty to transmit it presymptomatic or when they actually develop symptoms.

And I agree that hospitalizations and deaths are by far the more important stats.  But they seem to lag where large number of positives crop up.  Well at least the hospitalizations are - hopefully we won't see death rates crop up in Texas and Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 06, 2020, 10:05:13 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 05, 2020, 10:40:16 PMAnd isn't the national fatality rate 4 out of every 1,000? That's a 99.6 percent survival rate.

I suppose that depends on how many cases have gone undetected. Currently in Georgia (as of midday yesterday) there have been 95,516 detected cases and 2,860 deaths, which would be a fatality rate right at 3%. (That rate is falling; it was as high as 4.3% as recently as mid-June.) The actual number of total infections is generally estimated to be somewhere in the range of 4 to 9 times that number; if it's at the high end of that range, that would be fairly close to that 4/1000 figure.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 06, 2020, 08:35:35 AM
And I agree that hospitalizations and deaths are by far the more important stats.  But they seem to lag where large number of positives crop up.  Well at least the hospitalizations are - hopefully we won't see death rates crop up in Texas and Florida.

The dynamic here is certainly interesting in that death rates have continued to decline, dropping from about 40/day in mid-June to around 12/day now, while in that same time period hospitalizations have roughly doubled from 75-80/day to 150/day. I can't help but feel like we're just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 06, 2020, 10:11:44 AM
Michigan reported their first day with no new deaths yesterday since mid-March!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 06, 2020, 11:04:33 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 06, 2020, 10:05:13 AM
I suppose that depends on how many cases have gone undetected. Currently in Georgia (as of midday yesterday) there have been 95,516 detected cases and 2,860 deaths, which would be a fatality rate right at 3%. (That rate is falling; it was as high as 4.3% as recently as mid-June.) The actual number of total infections is generally estimated to be somewhere in the range of 4 to 9 times that number; if it's at the high end of that range, that would be fairly close to that 4/1000 figure.
That's exactly the math - but 10-12x that officially diagnosed is a more common range.
So anyone who gets it has a 90% chance of not realizing they just won the lottery, 6% recover from a bad-bad cold, 4% get it for real and if it is for real, it is 1 out of 10 chance of death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 06, 2020, 12:05:31 PM
Over the past 7 weeks Arizona's test positivity rate has risen from 6.5% on May 16th to 25.9% on July 4th yet deaths over the same period has remained relatively flat.  Arizona has a similar population to Massachusetts and their test positivity rate peaked in April at 29.4%.  When compared to Massachusetts outbreak, i'd expect Arizona to be averaging well over 100 deaths a day at this point but last check they were only average 31 deaths a day.  I get that deaths lag new cases, but to this degree?  Was there a massive outbreak in Massachusetts nursing homes that we just aren't seeing in Arizona?  There has to be a reason why not as many people are dying in Arizona's outbreak.

(https://i.imgur.com/yV7GNUy.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/AZII8AD.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 06, 2020, 12:17:50 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 06, 2020, 12:05:31 PM
Over the past 7 weeks Arizona's test positivity rate has risen from 6.5% on May 16th to 25.9% on July 4th yet deaths over the same period has remained relatively flat.  Arizona has a similar population to Massachusetts and their test positivity rate peaked in April at 29.4%.  When compared to Massachusetts outbreak, i'd expect Arizona to be averaging well over 100 deaths a day at this point but last check they were only average 31 deaths a day.  I get that deaths lag new cases, but to this degree?  Was there a massive outbreak in Massachusetts nursing homes that we just aren't seeing in Arizona?  There has to be a reason why not as many people are dying in Arizona's outbreak.
Nurising homes can be a big part of it.
Another reason is well summed in this article: https://www.physiciansweekly.com/update-mortality-rate-of-covid-19-patients-on-ventilators/
QuoteData released on May 8 by the UK's Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) shows the mortality rate for 4287 COVID 19 patients who received advanced respiratory support was 58.8%. This figure is much lower than percentages of 86% to 97% as reported in earlier studies included in my March 30 post on this topic.
Basically doctors learned a thing or two about how to deal with the virius
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 06, 2020, 12:29:58 PM
It also matters if growth in cases follows an exponential pattern.  If it does, it is just a matter of time before your ICUs are clogged with young covid-19 patients, even if you are 100% successful at keeping the virus out of congregate settings involving the elderly and other high-risk groups.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 06, 2020, 01:14:27 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 06, 2020, 12:29:58 PM
It also matters if growth in cases follows an exponential pattern.  If it does, it is just a matter of time before your ICUs are clogged with young covid-19 patients, even if you are 100% successful at keeping the virus out of congregate settings involving the elderly and other high-risk groups.

Arizona was experiencing exponential growth in new cases from May 26th through June 23rd.  The exponential growth has been tapering off over the past 2 weeks suggesting Arizona may be near the peak of their outbreak.  But you would have expected to see increased deaths associated with the exponential rise in cases but we largely haven't seen that.  I've been pointing out the low deaths in Arizona for weeks now and deaths just continue to remain fairly flat (in fact over the past 3 days average daily deaths have been declining). 

(https://i.imgur.com/2u44YWs.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&region=US&doublingtime=3&location=Arizona&location=Massachusetts

(https://i.imgur.com/y9qNgjD.png)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&doublingtime=3&location=Arizona&location=Massachusetts
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
it should also be remembered that the six-foot/two-meter rule was rather arbitrarily set, based on a study of a cough. 

This.

It has amazed me how everybody and their uncle has latched onto the six-foot rule.  It was based on a decades-old study that measured the distance large-droplet spray was likely to travel.  This coronavirus is capable of traveling on much smaller droplets, yet nobody seems to have any issue with keeping the "safe" distance at six feet.

Quote from: vdeane on July 05, 2020, 09:57:14 PM
There's also the fact that asking people to stand 9-15 feet apart would start to get impractical very fast.

This is true for many situations, but not all.

Quote from: J N Winkler on July 06, 2020, 12:29:58 PM
It also matters if growth in cases follows an exponential pattern.  If it does, it is just a matter of time before your ICUs are clogged with young covid-19 patients, even if you are 100% successful at keeping the virus out of congregate settings involving the elderly and other high-risk groups.

And I think we're seeing that where you and I live.  The data below is little bit out of date because I made these files on Friday night, but they illustrate steeper slopes now than ever before.

(https://i.imgur.com/k4EplhO.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/5o37Jd7.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 01:31:27 PM
Depending on how loosely you define the word "know", my wife and I now know someone who has tested positive.  It is the relative of a customer of my wife's MLM business.  We've met him once, maybe twice.  I'm kind of surprised it's taken this long for us to personally know someone who's tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 06, 2020, 02:03:28 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
it should also be remembered that the six-foot/two-meter rule was rather arbitrarily set, based on a study of a cough. 

This.

It has amazed me how everybody and their uncle has latched onto the six-foot rule.  It was based on a decades-old study that measured the distance large-droplet spray was likely to travel.  This coronavirus is capable of traveling on much smaller droplets, yet nobody seems to have any issue with keeping the "safe" distance at six feet.
It works the same with diets - plainly being aware of situation is doing a lot. 6' may be worse than 20', but better than nothing - and 20' is often impossible to begin with.
After all, R0 was about 2 at the beginning - it's not like thing spreads at a blink of an eye. SOME reduction of transmission should be enough to keep things in check, and increasing recommended distance may actually make things worse 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 06, 2020, 03:58:55 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week
NY/NJ/CT only has restrictions for certain states, and I don't think that Illinois is one of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 06, 2020, 04:04:28 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 06, 2020, 03:58:55 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week
NY/NJ/CT only has restrictions for certain states, and I don't think that Illinois is one of them.

The New England states, save CT, are the only lower 48 states I haven't been to and I was really wanting to get them all on the same trip. I guess if no better options emerge, we can modify our trip to exclude the Boston portion and then maybe just cross into MA for a few minutes to get the state on a technicality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 06, 2020, 04:09:30 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 04:04:28 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 06, 2020, 03:58:55 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week
NY/NJ/CT only has restrictions for certain states, and I don't think that Illinois is one of them.

The New England states, save CT, are the only lower 48 states I haven't been to and I was really wanting to get them all on the same trip. I guess if no better options emerge, we can modify our trip to exclude the Boston portion and then maybe just cross into MA for a few minutes to get the state on a technicality.
I mean Massachusetts isn't really enforcing the rules so you should be good if you don't stay at any lodging. Just make sure to wear a mask when out in public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 06, 2020, 04:18:57 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
it should also be remembered that the six-foot/two-meter rule was rather arbitrarily set, based on a study of a cough. 

This.

It has amazed me how everybody and their uncle has latched onto the six-foot rule.  It was based on a decades-old study that measured the distance large-droplet spray was likely to travel.  This coronavirus is capable of traveling on much smaller droplets, yet nobody seems to have any issue with keeping the "safe" distance at six feet.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebd-CyHU8AUp0PQ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

It's generally the case the farther the distance, the less viral load is transmitted. So you have to find a distance that is far enough to curb transmission, but not so far away that it becomes impractical, since there would be less compliance with a ten-foot rule or a twenty-foot rule. There's also a point at which you're likely to experience diminishing returns. Six feet is efficacious while still being reasonably practical, so that's been the consensus recommendation.

There's also the benefit that six feet is a distance that the human brain is better at estimating, because it happens to be close to the height of a human male. It is easy to picture someone lying down on the floor as a mental measuring tape. If the recommended distance were, say, eight feet, that'd be more difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 06, 2020, 04:43:17 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week
Honestly your best bet would be to take a couple extra days and drive to your destination. That way you avoid the solicitation of the quarantine at the airport.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 06, 2020, 04:44:54 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 06, 2020, 04:43:17 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week
Honestly your best bet would be to take a couple extra days and drive to your destination. That way you avoid the solicitation of the quarantine at the airport.

We're specifically trying to use airline tickets that are going to expire.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 05:17:45 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 06, 2020, 04:18:57 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebd-CyHU8AUp0PQ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)

That image is obviously not testing SARS-CoV-2.

The fact that respiratory bacteria, attached to large droplets, fall down to the ground within six feet does not mean that SARS CoV-2 viruses, which are able to attach to smaller droplets, necessarily follow the same pattern.

Diameter of SARS-CoV-2 (virus) = 0.1 μm
Diameter of streptococcus pneumoniae (bacterium) = 0.5 to 1.25 μm
Length of streptococcus pyogenes chains (bacterial coccus) = 0.5 mm
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 06, 2020, 05:53:17 PM
So what?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikeTheActuary on July 06, 2020, 07:10:16 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 06, 2020, 03:58:55 PM
NY/NJ/CT only has restrictions for certain states, and I don't think that Illinois is one of them.

And, FWIW, Illinois is only roughly half-way to the criteria NY/NJ/CT are using.  If it doesn't get much worse there....

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week

At the moment, BDL has one daily nonstop to/from MDW...although the schedule sucks.

You'd technically still have to avoid MA, RI, VT, NH, and ME under current rules...but I'm uncertain as to how well the rules are enforced...but NYC is within the specified radius by car or by train.

In CT most attractions are open or are opening soon, albeit with some restrictions for the obvious reason.  State parks and forests have been seeing heavy use as well, to the point that there have been closures for capacity reasons.  Bars and nightclubs are the only businesses that are still universally closed (although most white-collar offices are still ordered to do WFH to the greatest extent practical).

There are likely other sources that can better report on the tourist situation in NYC.

CT's positivity rate was running below 1% and trending down the last I checked...but that could have course change between now and then (c.f. my remarks elsewhere on lack of distancing/masks over the Fourth).


Another place that fits your criteria is Memphis, which is perhaps a bit too open given the COVID trends there.   If you stretch the 3 hour time limit, you could split the week between Memphis and Nashville (although I haven't confirmed the status of MDW-BNA).

Do your tickets expire before Labor Day?  Southwest's timetable really sucks right now with all the service cutbacks.  However, after Labor Day, the timetables currently look more normal, potentially giving you more options.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 06, 2020, 07:37:10 PM
This kind of backs up tradephoric's numbers, with a lot of links in the article.

As COVID-19 Cases Surge, Daily Deaths and the Case Fatality Rate Continue To Fall (https://reason.com/2020/07/06/as-covid-19-cases-surge-daily-deaths-and-the-case-fatality-rate-continue-to-fall/)

QuoteIn Texas, newly confirmed cases rose 13-fold, from 623 to 8,258, between May 25 and July 4 before falling to 3,449 yesterday. The number had risen six-fold as of two weeks ago, and by now that increase should be having an impact on daily deaths. Yet the rolling seven-day average of daily deaths has risen only modestly since Memorial Day, from 26 to 32. Meanwhile, the crude case fatality rate for Texas, which peaked at 3.4 percent on April 30, has continued to fall, reaching 0.5 percent yesterday.

"So far," The New York Times notes, "the death toll has not climbed much in Texas and other parts of the South and West seeing a surge." Even taking into account the increase in cases during the last two weeks, Youyang Gu's epidemiological model projects that daily deaths in Texas will rise to a peak of 64 in mid-to-late August before declining to 52 by the end of September. That's a substantial increase but not at all commensurate with the spike in cases.

QuoteOne of the arguments for lockdowns was that delaying cases would reduce the ultimate death toll by buying time for improvements like these. That may indeed be what happened, although the extent to which lockdowns actually reduced virus transmission is a matter of much debate. Cellphone and foot traffic data show that Americans were practicing social distancing before they were legally required to do so and started moving around more before lockdowns were lifted.

Gu's estimates likewise show that the COVID-19 reproductive number–the number of people infected by the average carrier–was falling before states started imposing lockdowns, although that policy may have reinforced the preexisting trend in some places. As of yesterday, according to his model, the reproductive number in California was 1.1, compared to 1.07 in Texas and Florida.

QuoteAs recently as May 4, The New York Times was warning that the United States could see 3,000 COVID-19 deaths a day by June 1, thanks to "reopening the economy." That is 12 times the current level and four times the number Gu is projecting for late August.

For the record, Gu's model has been fairly good at predicting both what has happened, and seems to be happening, rather well. https://covid19-projections.com/us
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 06, 2020, 07:40:09 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 06, 2020, 07:10:16 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 06, 2020, 03:58:55 PM
NY/NJ/CT only has restrictions for certain states, and I don't think that Illinois is one of them.

And, FWIW, Illinois is only roughly half-way to the criteria NY/NJ/CT are using.  If it doesn't get much worse there....

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 06, 2020, 03:56:34 PM
We have a family vacation planned for August 3-9, already postponed once from June. Trip is supposed to be to New England, but Massachusetts is requiring a 14 day quarantine upon entering the state, so that pretty much kills the trip. We hate to postpone again, as we are running up against the start of the school year and eventually risk losing our airline credit.

Is there any city that meets all of the following criteria:
1) At least 400 miles from Chicago (worth the effort to fly instead of drive)
2) Has non-stop flights on Southwest from Midway (not doing layovers, no exceptions)
3) Has no restrictions on people traveling from IL/IN
4) Has enough tourist destinations within a 3-hour drive that are open to justify going there for a week

At the moment, BDL has one daily nonstop to/from MDW...although the schedule sucks.

You'd technically still have to avoid MA, RI, VT, NH, and ME under current rules...but I'm uncertain as to how well the rules are enforced...but NYC is within the specified radius by car or by train.

In CT most attractions are open or are opening soon, albeit with some restrictions for the obvious reason.  State parks and forests have been seeing heavy use as well, to the point that there have been closures for capacity reasons.  Bars and nightclubs are the only businesses that are still universally closed (although most white-collar offices are still ordered to do WFH to the greatest extent practical).

There are likely other sources that can better report on the tourist situation in NYC.

CT's positivity rate was running below 1% and trending down the last I checked...but that could have course change between now and then (c.f. my remarks elsewhere on lack of distancing/masks over the Fourth).


Another place that fits your criteria is Memphis, which is perhaps a bit too open given the COVID trends there.   If you stretch the 3 hour time limit, you could split the week between Memphis and Nashville (although I haven't confirmed the status of MDW-BNA).

Do your tickets expire before Labor Day?  Southwest's timetable really sucks right now with all the service cutbacks.  However, after Labor Day, the timetables currently look more normal, potentially giving you more options.

The tickets don't expire before Labor Day, but the kids start back to school August 14, and unless we decide to skip family Christmas activities, aren't going to have a full week we can go anywhere with the kids before they do expire.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 06, 2020, 09:24:18 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 06, 2020, 08:17:36 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 06, 2020, 01:51:51 AMRegardless, the whole thing is a bunch of security theater anyway. Last night the mayor of Hoboken was on TV making noise about how "even if you have been tested and tested negative you still have to quarantine for 14 days". Why? You afraid people are going to spread a disease it was just confirmed they don't have?
Indeed, this creates a perverse incentive for people to not go and get tested after returning from travel, in order to avoid having any questions asked.
Because negative test doesn't mean " confirmed they don't have virus".

Not literally, no, since false negatives are a thing, but it provides enough confidence that the cost/benefit of placing the individual under house arrest for two weeks is no longer there.
You want to encourage people to get tested after traveling, and waving the carrot of being exempt from quarantine requirements if you test negative is a great way to do this.

It's also ridiculous in that it depends purely on what state a person traveled to with no regard for what a person did while there. Spent a week camping in the middle of the desert in Arizona? Quarantine for you! Went barhopping every night in Wisconsin? You're free to go about your business!

Quote from: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 05, 2020, 07:11:33 PM
it should also be remembered that the six-foot/two-meter rule was rather arbitrarily set, based on a study of a cough. 

This.

It has amazed me how everybody and their uncle has latched onto the six-foot rule.  It was based on a decades-old study that measured the distance large-droplet spray was likely to travel.  This coronavirus is capable of traveling on much smaller droplets, yet nobody seems to have any issue with keeping the "safe" distance at six feet.

I think it's best understood probabilisticly. No, it's not the case that standing 5'11" from someone infected is guaranteed to get you sick while standing 6'1" from the same person is guaranteed to not. Rather, there is a risk curve which starts very high immediately adjacent to someone and then decreases with increasing distance. It is not zero after six feet, but it is low enough to be deemed acceptable.

And yes it's true that small droplets can carry further, but it does still logically follow that the point at which the big droplets have fallen away is a point at which that risk will see a notable drop. Better to only be exposed to small droplets than to both small and large ones.

Quote from: tradephoric on July 06, 2020, 12:05:31 PM
Over the past 7 weeks Arizona's test positivity rate has risen from 6.5% on May 16th to 25.9% on July 4th yet deaths over the same period has remained relatively flat.  Arizona has a similar population to Massachusetts and their test positivity rate peaked in April at 29.4%.  When compared to Massachusetts outbreak, i'd expect Arizona to be averaging well over 100 deaths a day at this point but last check they were only average 31 deaths a day.  I get that deaths lag new cases, but to this degree?  Was there a massive outbreak in Massachusetts nursing homes that we just aren't seeing in Arizona?  There has to be a reason why not as many people are dying in Arizona's outbreak.

Methinks this is a factor of who is getting infected. Back in March/April there were a lot of outbreaks in nursing homes, i.e. highly vulnerable populations. Now, we're not seeing that - the surge in cases are being driven predominately by people going to crowded bars, house parties, etc. These are activities which are disproportionately partaken in by younger people, i.e. less vulnerable populations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 06, 2020, 09:29:12 PM
I think it's clear that we are getting better at treating this too which is why death rates haven't increased. Hospitalizations are still a problem though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on July 06, 2020, 09:42:41 PM
Quote from: MikeTheActuary on July 06, 2020, 12:50:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 05, 2020, 09:55:16 PM
So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?

Nope.  I've learned better.  :)

I'm probably to blame for the pandemic.  I was SO proud of myself, getting nice and organized, and getting travel plans in place for most of the year very early on.  Given how I shuttle among CT, QC, and TN, I've found that if I lock in "defensible" travel dates, I can usually get work and my father's doctors to accommodate my already-made travel plans....and for 2020 I had those plans made in such a way that I wouldn't wear myself out with back-to-back  (or back-to-back-to-back) trips.

And then the pandemic went and made all those plans moot.  I don't know when the US/Canadian border will reopen, so it's pointless for me to plan to go to QC, and I don't know when my father's assisted living will be open for visitors / when Connecticut will stop requiring people arriving from Tennessee to quarantine upon arrival.  So, in a couple of weeks, I will be able to say "I haven't spent this much time in one place in my memory/probably in my life."

Pre-pandemic, I had 4-5 trips queued up:
  • Fly to Denver, and drive a loop CO»WY»SD»ND»MT»ID»OR»ID»UT»CO, to set foot in the 6 states in the lower 48 that I still lack.
  • Operate the one of the CQWW radio contests from Sept-ÃŽles, QC
  • Drive up to the Lac-Saint-Jean region of Québec
  • Drive QC138 out to Kegasha
  • Cruise, probably to the southern Caribbean
Those are still "on the list", although I'm becoming more inclined to drop the cruise and just fly to someplace and simply "be unplugged" for a week or two, and I'm tempted to add a cross-country rail trip after having watched a few YouTube videos.

If that's the case, then I'm to blame too.  I also had the whole year planned out already (and a good chunk of next year).  I also remember wishing really hard that something would be done about the traffic on the Thruway that had been getting worse every year until recently.  Well, I've had no complaints about Thruway this year.  I guess I should be careful what I wish for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on July 07, 2020, 07:55:18 AM
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e5/eb/79/e5eb799997137350b07a4997126838bc.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 07, 2020, 09:03:05 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 05:17:45 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on July 06, 2020, 04:18:57 PM
[img

That image is obviously not testing SARS-CoV-2.

The fact that respiratory bacteria, attached to large droplets, fall down to the ground within six feet does not mean that SARS CoV-2 viruses, which are able to attach to smaller droplets, necessarily follow the same pattern.

Diameter of SARS-CoV-2 (virus) = 0.1 μm
Diameter of streptococcus pneumoniae (bacterium) = 0.5 to 1.25 μm
Length of streptococcus pyogenes chains (bacterial coccus) = 0.5 mm

Quote from: Scott5114 on July 06, 2020, 05:53:17 PM
So what?

So, if this virus attaches to smaller droplets that travel farther in the air before falling to the ground, then people should stop using a number that was the result of bacteria that only attach to larger droplets which can't travel as far.  The picture you posted implies in the context of this discussion that, at six feet, there is almost no presence of SARS CoV-2 from respiratory cough spray.  However, it means no such thing, because the experiment the picture was taken from wasn't studying this virus, but rather bacteria that were substantially larger and cannot travel as far through the air.  Just because six feet might be a magic number for one germ, that doesn't make it a magic number for a different one.

But, having said that...

Quote from: Duke87 on July 06, 2020, 09:24:18 PM
I think it's best understood probabilisticly ... Better to only be exposed to small droplets than to both small and large ones.

This makes sense.  A certain amount of the virus-laden droplets will have fallen away at six feet, even if other smaller ones continue their journey through the air beyond that point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on July 07, 2020, 11:34:15 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 05, 2020, 09:55:16 PM
So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?

This is the virus that never ends
It just goes on and on, my friends
Some people started bringing it
Not knowing what it was
And they'll continue bringing it
Forever just because...

Restrictions will tail off very gradually, in the great scheme of things. I think many people had this notion that it's like opening a store at 00:00:00 on Black Friday, and that was never going to be the case. But it's going to be this hissy-fit of "winners and losers" that have more restrictions than others, and traveling is about 50% less fun right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 07, 2020, 11:36:54 AM
Really I see no reason not to think that unless we start chaning our behavior soon, that this fall is going to be a disaster.  People in the north are going to start heading back indoors, and there will be numerous outbreaks tied to schools and colleges.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 07, 2020, 11:56:36 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 07, 2020, 11:36:54 AM
Really I see no reason to think that unless we start chaning our behavior soon, that this fall is going to be a disaster.

Did you type that right?

I kind of expect the real-world risk to be worse in the fall than it was in the spring, yet I expect restrictions to be lighter.  Which is, of course, a feedback loop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 07, 2020, 12:04:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 07, 2020, 11:56:36 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 07, 2020, 11:36:54 AM
Really I see no reason to think that unless we start chaning our behavior soon, that this fall is going to be a disaster.

Did you type that right?

I kind of expect the real-world risk to be worse in the fall than it was in the spring, yet I expect restrictions to be lighter.  Which is, of course, a feedback loop.


Edited.

Yeah exactly.  We may have overreacted in the Spring, but the thought is we would have done something with that downtime.  And yeah we have done a lot to create emergency room space, manage the disease better, manufacture PPE, but it seems like we are about to backslide in a way that is not going to be manageable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 07, 2020, 12:38:54 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 07, 2020, 12:04:30 PM
it seems like we are about to backslide in a way that is not going to be manageable.

Some places have demonstrated that, even after the virus's butt is kicked in an area, a resurgence is still possible (AK, HI, MT).  But, having said that, other places have not shown any up-slope yet, such as the region below.

(https://i.imgur.com/kwylVjR.jpg)

Meanwhile, other states (including my own) were showing a clear and sustained down-slope, then have been bouncing back up again sharply.  And plenty of states are similar to that, just with less-obvious down-slopes preceding the resurgence.

So I'm not sure that, even if things turn worse, they will do so everywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 07, 2020, 01:46:24 PM
If cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 07, 2020, 01:52:18 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 07, 2020, 01:46:24 PM
If cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?

A few possibilities:

Deaths start rising again – yes
Cases are due only to increased testing – no
Virus becomes less lethal – hmmmm, maybe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 07, 2020, 01:54:58 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 07, 2020, 01:46:24 PM
If cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?
Looks like quite a few people left with problems after virus "recovery"
Look for #covid1in20
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 07, 2020, 02:35:36 PM
New York just added Delaware to the advisory... something tells me that their high cases is because of the people not letting them in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 07, 2020, 02:51:38 PM
Quote from: formulanone on July 07, 2020, 11:34:15 AM
... traveling is about 50% less fun right now.

I'm not sure I agree. Traffic is lighter than usual for the most part, mask wearing has become habit at this point, and I was one for social distancing even before the pandemic hit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 07, 2020, 03:35:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 07, 2020, 01:52:18 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 07, 2020, 01:46:24 PMIf cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?

A few possibilities:

Deaths start rising again – yes
Cases are due only to increased testing – no
Virus becomes less lethal – hmmmm, maybe?

Because the current crop of cases skews much younger, I think the lag time before hospitalizations and deaths start going up is likely to be longer.

There seems to be a hopeful expectation that since testing has ramped up and testing criteria have been loosened in many jurisdictions, the current case numbers reflect greater sampling of mild cases.  That may be true if the comparison is to mid-March when criteria were more stringent, but not if it is to mid-May when states started reopening, since positive test percentages have been increasing.

I think what might save states like Texas and Florida, and maybe even Arizona, is the fact that covid-19 is to an extent a known quantity in a way it was not in New York back in March, and people have been modifying their behavior accordingly.  Also, the fact most new cases are in young people should buy a bit more time for mask mandates and other nonpharmaceutical interventions (short of full lockdown) to choke off exponential growth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on July 07, 2020, 04:04:06 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 07, 2020, 11:36:54 AM
Really I see no reason not to think that unless we start chaning our behavior soon, that this fall is going to be a disaster.  People in the north are going to start heading back indoors, and there will be numerous outbreaks tied to schools and colleges.


This is why I'm concerned about the 2nd wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on July 07, 2020, 04:12:30 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 07, 2020, 02:51:38 PM
Quote from: formulanone on July 07, 2020, 11:34:15 AM
... traveling is about 50% less fun right now.

I'm not sure I agree. Traffic is lighter than usual for the most part, mask wearing has become habit at this point, and I was one for social distancing even before the pandemic hit.

YMMV: though I can't say I see a huge difference on the roads. On one hand, I was able to breeze through rush hours in Chattanooga and Huntsville, but those are also places where a single disruption can turn their major corridors to a crawl. We usually go to the Gulf Shores during Memorial Day but I was able to swap out to a few days before July 4th; traffic is always terrible in the former, but was easy-peasy for a quick jump to the beach this time.

We went to beaches in the morning and evening, when it's quiet and less chance of a sunburn in 90 minutes. No difficulty keeping 20 feet apart, though we seemed to be one of three families wearing masks throughout the hotel (outside of the rooms). We stayed out of the pools and did take out. Washed up frequently and I think we did the right thing. They haven't come in contact with anyone but two visits from relatives over a month apart. I'm the dangerous one, so to speak...though I've requested projects with few personnel to train (1-5 people) and being reclusive throughout.

Though air travel has less crowds, the flight choices are lean, and the amenities become very spartan (which is what happens when you get spoiled...play me a very tiny fiddle). The warning from some airlines is that they might try to increase load capacity to 90-100% again...not looking forward to that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 07, 2020, 04:26:41 PM
City traffic was only noticeably light for a few weeks here.  I've noticed rush hour being a little lighter.  I haven't been on a road trip since March, though, and I haven't inquired about road conditions of those I know who have traveled out of state recently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 07, 2020, 05:21:46 PM
I haven't really been anywhere since a doctor's appointment in Lexington back in the spring, and a Saturday trip to London to check out some construction and a new J-turn on KY 80, so I haven't noticed any upticks in traffic. But gas prices are up. Increased demand and the switch to summer blend probably plays a part, but I'd imagine the biggest reason is the end of the Saudi-Russian price war.

I'm supposed to go back to the doctor in Lexington on Friday, but I'm giving serious thought to canceling that appointment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: roadman65 on July 07, 2020, 07:15:49 PM
Not surprising this:
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0PXKvGOe?s=a99&pd=03tKkkTW
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 07, 2020, 11:34:01 PM
Quote from: formulanone on July 07, 2020, 11:34:15 AM
traveling is about 50% less fun right now.

Agreed. My current trip is heavily focused on route-clinching, with the incidental benefit of improving my "round 2" county count (counties revisited in the U.S. after I completed them all in summer 2010). About zero socializing. No visits to relatives (especially my 90-something aunt who is just a few counties away from my current location), too dangerous to their health.. No trips to the beach. No hot springs. No fun, aside from driving.

One reason for doing this all now is the hope that more sports will come back to life later in the year, giving me more to do at home. That's turning into a "maybe" at best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on July 07, 2020, 11:47:09 PM
What was most disappointing for my recent drive was having to restrict myself to chain restaurants out of uncertainty of what was open as well as likely better standardized protocols for safety than a local joint may have had (both for their safety and mine).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 08, 2020, 07:56:38 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on July 07, 2020, 07:15:49 PM
Not surprising this:
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0PXKvGOe?s=a99&pd=03tKkkTW

The Dunks that are closing are only the ones in Speedway gas stations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 10:25:48 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on July 07, 2020, 07:15:49 PM
Not surprising this:
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0PXKvGOe?s=a99&pd=03tKkkTW

Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on July 07, 2020, 11:47:09 PM
What was most disappointing for my recent drive was having to restrict myself to chain restaurants out of uncertainty of what was open as well as likely better standardized protocols for safety than a local joint may have had (both for their safety and mine).

Two points about this:

* A lot of chain fast-food restaurants have limited ability to rearrange their space.  Some of them have tables bolted to the floor.  However, some other chains don't have this problem.  For example, the Firehouse Subs near us totally removed half of the tables in their dining area, which makes distancing really easy.

* A lot of sit-down restaurants–whether part of a chain or locally owned–have large booths, half of which are blocked off nowadays.*  Furthermore, if a restaurant isn't a franchise of a nationwide chain, then I suspect the manager feels less pressure to earn every dollar possible, meaning the manager feels less pressure to allow more customers than safe.



*  Note:  A few weeks ago, my parents were at a sit-down restaurant with half the booths blocked off.  When those tables filled up, the server un-blocked the booth next to my parents and seated guests there without asking if that was OK with my parents first.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 08, 2020, 03:02:38 PM
Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 08, 2020, 03:04:07 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 08, 2020, 03:02:38 PM
Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.


It's a way for them to limit the number of people in the place and spread them apart from one another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 03:11:44 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 08, 2020, 03:04:07 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on July 08, 2020, 03:02:38 PM
Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.

It's a way for them to limit the number of people in the place and spread them apart from one another.

Also, not blocking them off would leave not much more than 6 feet between facing diners.

(https://i.imgur.com/ihVGsPY.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 08, 2020, 03:53:08 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 03:11:44 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 08, 2020, 03:04:07 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on July 08, 2020, 03:02:38 PM
Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.

It's a way for them to limit the number of people in the place and spread them apart from one another.

Also, not blocking them off would leave not much more than 6 feet between facing diners.

(https://i.imgur.com/ihVGsPY.png)


Right.  Then there is the kid that turns around, the people getting in and out of the booth, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on July 08, 2020, 04:33:13 PM
I went to a place called Ford's Garage for dinner last week (the location northeast of Fishers, IN), and they had put up clear plastic screens between all the booths. This allowed them to open up all of the booths. The tables were still pretty far apart, as expected.

I also went a place called Texas Roadhouse (chain I hadn't heard of), and they also had clear plastic screens between the booths, but I don't know if this is part of their normal decor. Every other booth was also not being used, from what I could see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 04:38:38 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 08, 2020, 04:33:13 PM
I went to a place called Ford's Garage for dinner last week (the location northeast of Fishers, IN), and they had put up clear plastic screens between all the booths. This allowed them to open up all of the booths. The tables were still pretty far apart, as expected.

Yes, that's a perfect solution.  I assume it can get expensive, though.  I'm only really familiar with plastic drum shields, but those panels ain't cheap.

Quote from: jakeroot on July 08, 2020, 04:33:13 PM
I also went a place called Texas Roadhouse (chain I hadn't heard of)

One of the best values around for going on a date, in my opinion.  My wife had never gone to it until last year, and we didn't realize what we were missing.  In my opinion, Texas Roadhouse is worth probably at least 20% more than what they charge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on July 08, 2020, 04:46:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 04:38:38 PM
[clipped because I'm on mobile]

The screens weren't like bendable or anything. I think they may have been closer to those shields you describe. Literally just like hard clear plastic.

We have a local "chain" [of two] here in Seattle called Jimmy Macs that takes the place of Texas Roadhouse. I would agree that the value is indeed excellent. Although a growing number of people, including my own girlfriend, do shy away from meat. So presenting it as a date option is risky :-D.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 04:50:43 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 08, 2020, 04:46:09 PM
Although a growing number of people, including my own girlfriend, do shy away from meat. So presenting it as a date option is risky :-D.

My wife and I probably only eat steak twice a year.  I think something like that would certainly fit into a lifestyle that "shies away" from meat.  Unless you meant she's actually a vegetarian, in which case I got nothin'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 05:49:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 04, 2020, 01:18:19 PM
My wife and I went grocery shopping yesterday during a strange legal time in which (a) the Kansas governor had issued a statewide mask order, (b) Sedgwick County had opted out of that order, and (c) the Wichita city council was in session deciding whether or not to issue a local city mask order.  Whereas a week ago I estimate that 50% of shoppers were wearing masks, I estimate that 7 out of 8 were wearing them during that time yesterday.  My wife and I wore our masks, not just because of the evolving legal situation but also because we knew grocery shopping on a Friday afternoon the day before July 4 is not a good way to avoid crowded spaces.  We planned on a crowded store in which maintaining proper distancing wouldn't be likely.

Heh.  My experience described above was at what my wife and I call "the Gucci Dillon's".  On my way home from work, I stopped at the Dillon's that's actually closer to my house for a jug of milk and some tortillas.  That one is in more of a "oh yeah, and what are you going to do about it?" kind of neighborhood.  There, even with a citywide mask order now in place, I estimate that only about 5 out of 6 shoppers were wearing one in the store.

In other news, Sedgwick County Health Officer Garold Minns just announced he'd be signing an order to limit gatherings to 45 people again starting Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 08, 2020, 09:23:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 03:11:44 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 08, 2020, 03:04:07 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on July 08, 2020, 03:02:38 PM
Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.

It's a way for them to limit the number of people in the place and spread them apart from one another.

Also, not blocking them off would leave not much more than 6 feet between facing diners.

Our local Burger King has EVERY booth flagged as "Throne out of order" (cute). Only every other table in the middle is available for use.

They're not required to do this, Connecticut currently allows indoor seating up to 50% of normal capacity. So it was their own decision to close more seating than required. Maybe they didn't want to have to deal with sanitizing the booths, I dunno.

Functionally speaking it doesn't appear to be much of a constraint though - nobody was sitting down to eat inside when I was there.

Possibly worth noting for context that even in normal times, that dining room never fills up. Majority of their business has long been to-go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:37:37 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 08, 2020, 09:23:55 PM
Our local Burger King has EVERY booth flagged as "Throne out of order" (cute).

Now I'm kicking myself for not coming up with that for when the toilet was broken when I was a manager there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 08, 2020, 09:43:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 04:50:43 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 08, 2020, 04:46:09 PM
Although a growing number of people, including my own girlfriend, do shy away from meat. So presenting it as a date option is risky :-D.

My wife and I probably only eat steak twice a year.  I think something like that would certainly fit into a lifestyle that "shies away" from meat.  Unless you meant she's actually a vegetarian, in which case I got nothin'.
I eat steak a little more than that, but it's mostly store bought, not restaurant. I don't actually love steak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:48:09 PM
I was eating steak fairly often during lockdown since it was a nice break from regular burgers and takeout food.  Then the price of beef shot up and I haven't bought it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 08, 2020, 11:31:31 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 08, 2020, 09:43:02 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 04:50:43 PM
My wife and I probably only eat steak twice a year. ...
I eat steak a little more than that, but it's mostly store bought, not restaurant. I don't actually love steak.

Same here, I enjoy steak but it can be hard to find the right cut and cook it just right.
Best case is bliss, worst case is mostly gristle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 09, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:48:09 PM
I was eating steak fairly often during lockdown since it was a nice break from regular burgers and takeout food.  Then the price of beef shot up and I haven't bought it.

Hamburger shot up to $7 or $8 a pound here a couple of months ago, but it's now back down to closer-to-normal levels.

There's still a shortage of hand sanitizer, cleaning/disinfecting supplies, toilet paper, and paper towns in some locations here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 09, 2020, 04:07:25 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 08, 2020, 05:49:53 PMIn other news, Sedgwick County Health Officer Garold Minns just announced he'd be signing an order to limit gatherings to 45 people again starting Friday.

He has also announced that he will be signing a mask order more or less identical to the one the county commissioners rejected last Friday.  At least two of the commissioners have announced that they will not be voting to overturn it this time.

Since Wichita has its own mask ordinance, which the state Attorney General has said is a constitutionally proper application of its home rule powers, I am wondering if we will now see one or both of these pre-emption controversies:

*  A small town elsewhere in the county trying to carve itself out of the county mask order (does a health officer's powers override home rule?)

*  Someone in Wichita trying to get out of a fine for not wearing a mask by arguing that the penalties in the county order override the ones in the city order

As for compliance at grocery stores, I shop at the Dillons at 13th and West, and last Saturday I did not see anyone who was not wearing a mask.  The previous Saturday, six days before the order went into effect, about half of the customers were not wearing masks, although all of the employees were.




Regarding steaks:  before the pandemic bit, we usually had flatiron steak 20 to 25 times a year, and I always prepare it by sprinkling it with lemon pepper and broiling it on both sides.  We hardly ever go out to steakhouses to eat (in fact, I have not been to a restaurant in that format for at least five years), because they don't offer us the novelty of food prepared a different way or in a different culinary tradition.  However, we refuse to buy flatiron steak or any other high-type beef cuts unless they are on sale, which they have not been since March.  With the meatpackers reeling from thousands of covid-19 cases and oil prices now going back up (beef production is very petroleum-intensive--a few years ago, National Geographic ran a photo of a young woman in farm overalls posing next to a cow and the two barrels of oil it takes to raise the cow from birth to slaughter), I don't expect to see flatiron steak discounted anytime soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 09, 2020, 04:20:27 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 09, 2020, 04:07:25 PM
*  Someone in Wichita trying to get out of a fine for not wearing a mask by arguing that the penalties in the county order override the ones in the city order

Actually, as I read the county order (and I'm only now getting around to reading it), people are only required to wear a mask if six-foot distancing is not possible–whether indoors our out.  And that's true of the city order as well.  The only substantive difference I see is that the county order limits gatherings to 45 people, but even then it carves out the possibility of multiple groups of 45 using the same space as long as there is at least six feet separating the groups.




Edited to clarify:

Individuals are mandated to wear a mask if six-foot distancing is not possible, whether indoors or outdoors.  Businesses are mandated to require their customers to wear masks.  Therefore, if a grocery store customer isn't wearing a mask, it's only an infraction by the individual if six-foot distancing wasn't possible in that situation.  Perhaps the grocery store as a business would be found in violation, but it's not really clear if requiring customers to wear mask is the same thing as policing that policy within their establishment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 05:27:31 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 09, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:48:09 PM
I was eating steak fairly often during lockdown since it was a nice break from regular burgers and takeout food.  Then the price of beef shot up and I haven't bought it.

Hamburger shot up to $7 or $8 a pound here a couple of months ago, but it's now back down to closer-to-normal levels.

There's still a shortage of hand sanitizer, cleaning/disinfecting supplies, toilet paper, and paper towns in some locations here.

It's funny that my local Walmart is now putting hand sanitizer in the clearance section ($1 for a medium size, originally $3) because we have too much. Most grocery stores now have plenty of bottles, paper products, and masks (both disposable and reusable cloth). Some drugstores are even selling face shields.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 09, 2020, 05:34:49 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 05:27:31 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 09, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:48:09 PM
I was eating steak fairly often during lockdown since it was a nice break from regular burgers and takeout food.  Then the price of beef shot up and I haven't bought it.

Hamburger shot up to $7 or $8 a pound here a couple of months ago, but it's now back down to closer-to-normal levels.

There's still a shortage of hand sanitizer, cleaning/disinfecting supplies, toilet paper, and paper towns in some locations here.

It's funny that my local Walmart is now putting hand sanitizer in the clearance section ($1 for a medium size, originally $3) because we have too much. Most grocery stores now have plenty of bottles, paper products, and masks (both disposable and reusable cloth). Some drugstores are even selling face shields.
I remember people freaking out about shortages back in March when coronavirus cases were a lot lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 05:51:17 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 09, 2020, 05:34:49 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 05:27:31 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 09, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:48:09 PM
I was eating steak fairly often during lockdown since it was a nice break from regular burgers and takeout food.  Then the price of beef shot up and I haven't bought it.

Hamburger shot up to $7 or $8 a pound here a couple of months ago, but it's now back down to closer-to-normal levels.

There's still a shortage of hand sanitizer, cleaning/disinfecting supplies, toilet paper, and paper towns in some locations here.

It's funny that my local Walmart is now putting hand sanitizer in the clearance section ($1 for a medium size, originally $3) because we have too much. Most grocery stores now have plenty of bottles, paper products, and masks (both disposable and reusable cloth). Some drugstores are even selling face shields.
I remember people freaking out about shortages back in March when coronavirus cases were a lot lower.

Just like people were panicking about water, then toilet paper, then Clorox wipes....  Out of all those supposed shortages the only one that really stuck was Clorox Wipes.  In the particular case of Clorox Wipes that's more about demand exceeding supply and alternatives have popped up, especially on the commercial level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 09, 2020, 06:38:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 05:51:17 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 09, 2020, 05:34:49 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 05:27:31 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 09, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:48:09 PM
I was eating steak fairly often during lockdown since it was a nice break from regular burgers and takeout food.  Then the price of beef shot up and I haven't bought it.

Hamburger shot up to $7 or $8 a pound here a couple of months ago, but it's now back down to closer-to-normal levels.

There's still a shortage of hand sanitizer, cleaning/disinfecting supplies, toilet paper, and paper towns in some locations here.

It's funny that my local Walmart is now putting hand sanitizer in the clearance section ($1 for a medium size, originally $3) because we have too much. Most grocery stores now have plenty of bottles, paper products, and masks (both disposable and reusable cloth). Some drugstores are even selling face shields.
I remember people freaking out about shortages back in March when coronavirus cases were a lot lower.

Just like people were panicking about water, then toilet paper, then Clorox wipes....  Out of all those supposed shortages the only one that really stuck was Clorox Wipes.  In the particular case of Clorox Wipes that's more about demand exceeding supply and alternatives have popped up, especially on the commercial level.
People also panicked about hand sanitizer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 06:55:09 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 09, 2020, 06:38:02 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 05:51:17 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 09, 2020, 05:34:49 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 05:27:31 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 09, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 08, 2020, 09:48:09 PM
I was eating steak fairly often during lockdown since it was a nice break from regular burgers and takeout food.  Then the price of beef shot up and I haven't bought it.

Hamburger shot up to $7 or $8 a pound here a couple of months ago, but it's now back down to closer-to-normal levels.

There's still a shortage of hand sanitizer, cleaning/disinfecting supplies, toilet paper, and paper towns in some locations here.

It's funny that my local Walmart is now putting hand sanitizer in the clearance section ($1 for a medium size, originally $3) because we have too much. Most grocery stores now have plenty of bottles, paper products, and masks (both disposable and reusable cloth). Some drugstores are even selling face shields.
I remember people freaking out about shortages back in March when coronavirus cases were a lot lower.

Just like people were panicking about water, then toilet paper, then Clorox wipes....  Out of all those supposed shortages the only one that really stuck was Clorox Wipes.  In the particular case of Clorox Wipes that's more about demand exceeding supply and alternatives have popped up, especially on the commercial level.
People also panicked about hand sanitizer.

I'm sure there is more that I'm forgetting.  By the time meat started to make the news I don't think people were willing to listen about "shortages"  again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.

All about saving a buck on office supplies.  If splintered toilet paper was still around I'm sure it would be massively bulk ordered if it was a cheaper option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:34:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.

All about saving a buck on office supplies.  If splintered toilet paper was still around I'm sure it would be massively bulk ordered if it was a cheaper option.

But of course. Why spend $5 more a month on toilet paper, when you can just reverse the hit to employee morale with Wacky Tie Day?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 08:01:02 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:34:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.

All about saving a buck on office supplies.  If splintered toilet paper was still around I'm sure it would be massively bulk ordered if it was a cheaper option.

But of course. Why spend $5 more a month on toilet paper, when you can just reverse the hit to employee morale with Wacky Tie Day?

Because it's the philosophy of most workplaces that everyone is replaceable and can quit if they don't like their job.  That mindset subsided for awhile with "essential workers"  during the pandemic but it sure is rearing up again now that things are opening back up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 09, 2020, 08:21:36 PM
A lot of businesses don't even handle their own cleaning and bathroom stocking anyway.  It's the cleaning service that puts the TP in the bathroom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 09, 2020, 08:22:07 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 09, 2020, 08:19:21 PM
Which stat is more dubious..  Trump saying that 99% of the virus is totally harmless or Anderson Cooper citing that the fatality rate of the virus is 4.6%? 

Well, 99% of a gun is harmless.  It's only the bullet that's harmful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 08:24:26 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 09, 2020, 08:22:07 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 09, 2020, 08:19:21 PM
Which stat is more dubious..  Trump saying that 99% of the virus is totally harmless or Anderson Cooper citing that the fatality rate of the virus is 4.6%? 

Well, 99% of a gun is harmless.  It's only the bullet that's harmful.

Both are examples of political spin that shouldn't be at the forefront of any emergency. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 09:10:57 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 08:01:02 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:34:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.

All about saving a buck on office supplies.  If splintered toilet paper was still around I'm sure it would be massively bulk ordered if it was a cheaper option.

But of course. Why spend $5 more a month on toilet paper, when you can just reverse the hit to employee morale with Wacky Tie Day?

Because it's the philosophy of most workplaces that everyone is replaceable and can quit if they don't like their job.  That mindset subsided for awhile with "essential workers"  during the pandemic but it sure is rearing up again now that things are opening back up. 

I'd submit that the level of success in beating back this philosophy is what separates the mediocre companies from the truly successful ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on July 09, 2020, 09:13:22 PM
I don't think a vaccine nor treatment is being worked on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 09:22:23 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 09:10:57 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 08:01:02 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:34:33 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.

All about saving a buck on office supplies.  If splintered toilet paper was still around I'm sure it would be massively bulk ordered if it was a cheaper option.

But of course. Why spend $5 more a month on toilet paper, when you can just reverse the hit to employee morale with Wacky Tie Day?

Because it's the philosophy of most workplaces that everyone is replaceable and can quit if they don't like their job.  That mindset subsided for awhile with "essential workers"  during the pandemic but it sure is rearing up again now that things are opening back up. 

I'd submit that the level of success in beating back this philosophy is what separates the mediocre companies from the truly successful ones.

I don't necessarily disagree, especially the further back in time you go.  The trouble is now that treating staff like a complete crap/garbage tends to push the most talented people away to other employers.  There are some industries where that is more apparent than other.  Anything entry level tends to operate as plug and replace, that likely will never change since there is so much demand for those jobs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 10:24:32 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on July 09, 2020, 09:13:22 PM
I don't think a vaccine nor treatment is being worked on.

Where's your evidence?

The Milken Institute has a list of 190 vaccine studies (https://airtable.com/shrSAi6t5WFwqo3GM/tblEzPQS5fnc0FHYR/viwDBH7b6FjmIBX5x?blocks=hide) currently in progress. Three of them (AstraZeneca/Oxford, CanSino, and Moderna/NIAID) have moved into Phase II trials that will last until the end of the year.

A viable vaccine takes a long time to develop, so don't expect daily updates. But it is happening, and has been in progress since the first vaccine trials began in Seattle in mid-March (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 10:35:57 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 10:24:32 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on July 09, 2020, 09:13:22 PM
I don't think a vaccine nor treatment is being worked on.

Where's your evidence?

The Milken Institute has a list of 190 vaccine studies (https://airtable.com/shrSAi6t5WFwqo3GM/tblEzPQS5fnc0FHYR/viwDBH7b6FjmIBX5x?blocks=hide) currently in progress. Three of them (AstraZeneca/Oxford, CanSino, and Moderna/NIAID) have moved into Phase II trials that will last until the end of the year.

A viable vaccine takes a long time to develop, so don't expect daily updates. But it is happening, and has been in progress since the first vaccine trials began in Seattle in mid-March (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins).

Isn't there over half a dozen vaccines currently in any level of trial phases?  Given we're talking a slow mutating Coronavirus it's only likely a matter of time before at least one viable vaccine is fully approved.  The notion of world wide distribution or requiring a populace to get it are other matters all together. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 09, 2020, 11:18:47 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 10:24:32 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on July 09, 2020, 09:13:22 PM
I don't think a vaccine nor treatment is being worked on.

Where's your evidence?

For that matter, where's your motive? Why would no one be working on either of these things?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on July 09, 2020, 11:21:00 PM
For what I'm concerned, The vaccine might not work enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 11:25:16 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 10:24:32 PM
CanSino

Sounds like something you'd call a vending machine that may or may not dispense the beverage you paid for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 09, 2020, 11:40:54 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on July 09, 2020, 11:21:00 PM
For what I'm concerned, The vaccine might not work enough.

Based off of?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brian556 on July 09, 2020, 11:47:15 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 07:25:14 PM
Most of these "shortages" were just spikes in demand that production had to catch up on. The toilet paper one was particularly vexing to solve because the production capacity was there, but set up to make that sandpaper stuff they put in commercial buildings, presumably because managers are afraid if they put actual toilet paper in there, people will spend all day shitting instead of working? I don't know.

(https://memecrunch.com/meme/AUORW/that-s-why-i-poop-on-company-time/image.gif?w=400&c=1)
I have IBS, so I use the restroom at work more than the average person. At least at my last two employers, I have not had any issues with their toilet paper. I cant tell a difference between it and the Angel Soft that I use at home.

Paper towels are another story. Target was using Scott, which is pretty good, when I started there. Then they switched to Cascade. Their paper towels were useless, and would not absorb anything. This made cleaning up minor spills difficult, and meant that we would have to go get the mop more often than before
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: STLmapboy on July 10, 2020, 01:20:50 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 10, 2020, 02:39:07 AM
Quote from: STLmapboy on July 10, 2020, 01:20:50 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

133,000 deaths is in no way pretty good. That is just under a quarter of the deaths worldwide. The US doesn't have anywhere near 25% of the world population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on July 10, 2020, 03:34:24 AM
Quote from: STLmapboy on July 10, 2020, 01:20:50 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

The U.S. is second in terms of deaths per 100,000 residents (40.44), only behind the United Kingdom (67.08).

We're in the same neighborhood as Chile (35.10), Peru (34.80), Brazil (32.45), and Brazil (32.45).

The worst continental European nation is Russia at 7.37. That's a world apart from us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 04:20:50 AM
It's undeniable that the UK was hit hard by this pandemic in terms of deaths, worse than the US.  Here's a rolling 7-day average of the daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people.

(https://i.imgur.com/Ud3CM1E.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 04:21:58 AM
^Of course stats like this are all a numbers game.  If you compare per capita deaths in the UK to the Northeast region of the United States then the UK doesn't look so bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 10, 2020, 05:40:14 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 11:25:16 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 10:24:32 PM
CanSino

Sounds like something you'd call a vending machine that may or may not dispense the beverage you paid for.

For a Spanish speaker like me that sounds like someone you're tired of hearing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 09:07:15 AM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on July 09, 2020, 11:21:00 PM
For what I'm concerned, The vaccine might not work enough.


A vaccine even as good as the influenza vaccine would make a huge difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:14:05 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 10, 2020, 03:34:24 AM

Quote from: STLmapboy on July 10, 2020, 01:20:50 AM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

The U.S. is second in terms of deaths per 100,000 residents (40.44), only behind the United Kingdom (67.08).

We're in the same neighborhood as Chile (35.10), Peru (34.80), Brazil (32.45), and Brazil (32.45).

The worst continental European nation is Russia at 7.37. That's a world apart from us.

But what about deaths per positive case?  That's a more meaningful comparison to make.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 10:19:30 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:14:05 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 10, 2020, 03:34:24 AM

Quote from: STLmapboy on July 10, 2020, 01:20:50 AM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

The U.S. is second in terms of deaths per 100,000 residents (40.44), only behind the United Kingdom (67.08).

We're in the same neighborhood as Chile (35.10), Peru (34.80), Brazil (32.45), and Brazil (32.45).

The worst continental European nation is Russia at 7.37. That's a world apart from us.

But what about deaths per positive case?  That's a more meaningful comparison to make.


That stat tells us how well we manage the case once we have a positive, but does nothing to show how poorly we are containing the virus in the first place.  Which is the root of the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 10, 2020, 11:07:26 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 10, 2020, 02:39:07 AM
Quote from: STLmapboy on July 10, 2020, 01:20:50 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Deaths starting to go up in Florida:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-reports-record-high-coronavirus-deaths-single-day

It's coming. Deaths lag behind cases.

America's been pretty good about deaths so far, at or below other countries (in stark contrast to the case rate).

133,000 deaths is in no way pretty good. That is just under a quarter of the deaths worldwide. The US doesn't have anywhere near 25% of the world population.
Reported cases. That can make a lot of difference.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 10, 2020, 11:12:34 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.
Anything is subject to some bias. Better testing may mean more cases and fewer deaths per case.
Thing is, whatever happens on the front line should focus on helping individuals , not on validity of statistics....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 10, 2020, 11:32:44 AM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 08, 2020, 04:33:13 PM
I went to a place called Ford's Garage for dinner last week (the location northeast of Fishers, IN), and they had put up clear plastic screens between all the booths. This allowed them to open up all of the booths. The tables were still pretty far apart, as expected.

I also went a place called Texas Roadhouse (chain I hadn't heard of), and they also had clear plastic screens between the booths, but I don't know if this is part of their normal decor. Every other booth was also not being used, from what I could see.

A local restaurant in my hometown put plastic sheets between all of their booths and removed some of their tables, although they did put on a small addition during the closure, where they moved one of the tables to.

I saw that there might be a substantial increase in diseases of despair in the next few years, including alcoholism and opioid use disorder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 10, 2020, 11:46:36 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:14:05 AMBut what about deaths per positive case?  That's a more meaningful comparison to make.

It is susceptible to several layers of sampling bias, including the amount of testing you do and the prevalence of covid-19 cases by age group.

Confirmed cases per unit of population is actually a pretty slippery measure.  I'd say that, for purposes of making comparisons across different jurisdictions, it begins to be reliable only if the following conditions are met:

*  Testing criteria are the same

*  Positive test percentage is about the same

*  Throughput in the testing system is quite large compared to the number of cases encountered (less likely to be true in Arizona, where about 25% are testing positive right now, than in Connecticut, where the positive test percentage is closer to 1%)

*  Effective measures are taken to avoid the development of pools of infection that are not visible to testing

There are quite a few things to think about in terms of throughput because, especially in the US with its patchwork healthcare system, it is very easy to create disincentives to get tested.  Early in the pandemic, there was widespread confusion about whether tests would be free, as well as severe bottlenecks on test availability.  Now it is easier to get tested, except in areas where cases are taking off (there are reports of hour-long waits at drive-thru centers in Arizona, at a time of year when daytime high temperatures are 100° F or more; in Sedgwick County, Kansas, you can expect to wait as long as two weeks for results if you do not report symptoms).  Criteria tend to change in time to respond to the underlying level of demand (Sedgwick County has now suspended testing of asymptomatic cases).  Many jurisdictions also access tests from multiple pools, often with strings attached that promote sampling bias and lead to results becoming available in a lumpy and not necessarily predictable fashion--for example, at various times during this crisis Kansas has had access to rapid tests (provided by the federal government) that can be used only for meatpacking workers, which is the main reason the statewide case count zoomed upward in May when outbreaks were detected at the meat plants in Ford, Finney, Seward, and Lyon Counties.

Many of these factors are not necessarily visible to the public.  Newspaper reporters try to do their jobs, but they don't have the information at first hand because they aren't sitting in the offices where it is coming in, and some of those responsible for managing the crisis in each jurisdiction deliberately stymie information requests, often because they view control of information to the public as an integral part of their response to the crisis.  (There are many tricks available for this under state open-records laws.  For example, in Pennsylvania the Right To Know Law allows agencies to build in 30-day delay just by claiming some of the information asked for is held by district offices.  The Kansas Open Records Act has a very long exemption list and some of the specific exemptions are vaguely defined.)  Some of the information that comes in is impressionistic and is reported in an opaque manner:  for example, in Sedgwick County free hospital capacity is reported as a rating (was Good with a green checkmark in the recent past, is now Moderate with a yellow stop sign and exclamation mark) solely on the basis of conversations the county manager has with administrators at the two major hospitals in Wichita.  To get an idea of where things are headed, the numbers can be less helpful than, for example, the fact that contact tracing is breaking down because there are now too many cases under investigation for the personnel available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 10, 2020, 12:38:59 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 09, 2020, 11:25:16 PM
Quote from: Bruce on July 09, 2020, 10:24:32 PM
CanSino

Sounds like something you'd call a vending machine that may or may not dispense the beverage you paid for.

Yep, and you didn't even need to clarify - I would have assumed that anyways based on my experience with vending machines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   


That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 10, 2020, 12:48:06 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   


That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?
4x? suspiciously optimistic.
Current estimates are mostly around 10x between infected and actually diagnosed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

Why not?.  Some people don't exhibit symptoms.  Some others may mistake it for a cold and not bother getting tested.  Some others may worry about having to pay for a test.  Some others may not see the point of being tested, considering there's no cure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: catch22 on July 10, 2020, 01:11:35 PM
In response to recent upticks in cases, Michigan has modified its face mask rules making it mandatory to require masks in all public spaces (and in outdoor spaces where social distancing guidelines can't be met) and requiring businesses to refuse entry to those not following the rules, with some exceptions.

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90640-533941--,00.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 01:13:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

Why not?.  Some people don't exhibit symptoms.  Some others may mistake it for a cold and not bother getting tested.  Some others may worry about having to pay for a test.  Some others may not see the point of being tested, considering there's no cure.

Don't most states already estimate they have double to quadruple suspected cases to known cases?  That's definitely what California projects. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 10, 2020, 01:26:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   

That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

At a minimum.  The best estimates from the CDC are closer to 10 times as many as have tested positive.

For predictions, I'd look at this model first.  It's by Youyang Gu, and Gu has been rather accurate thus far with this model.
https://covid19-projections.com/
https://covid19-projections.com/about/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 10, 2020, 01:27:26 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

Why not?.  Some people don't exhibit symptoms.  Some others may mistake it for a cold and not bother getting tested.  Some others may worry about having to pay for a test.  Some others may not see the point of being tested, considering there's no cure.

Also, people may think it's a big, time-consuming hassle to get tested. Or, they might avoid getting tested because they don't want to test positive for social, work-related or other reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 01:50:35 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   


That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

What do you believe?  Based on the responses to your post you seem to be in the minority if you believe the majority of cases have been accounted for with testing.  I wouldn't be surprised if 15-20X more people have had the virus than the official cases suggest (which would mean a fatality rate between 0.2% and 0.3%).  What do you believe the actual fatality rate is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 10, 2020, 01:52:50 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 10, 2020, 01:27:26 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

Why not?.  Some people don't exhibit symptoms.  Some others may mistake it for a cold and not bother getting tested.  Some others may worry about having to pay for a test.  Some others may not see the point of being tested, considering there's no cure.

Also, people may think it's a big, time-consuming hassle to get tested. Or, they might avoid getting tested because they don't want to test positive for social, work-related or other reasons.
My understanding that the testing procedure is less than humane. Swab goes deep inside nasal cavity. I had something similar done on me before - with a hefty dose of lidocaine being applied first (but with a bigger camera probe, to be fair). Wasn't fun at all. So I would hold on until i really-really need that...
(https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/images/coronavirus-testing.PNG)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 01:58:12 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 10, 2020, 01:26:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   

That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

At a minimum.  The best estimates from the CDC are closer to 10 times as many as have tested positive.

For predictions, I'd look at this model first.  It's by Youyang Gu, and Gu has been rather accurate thus far with this model.
https://covid19-projections.com/
https://covid19-projections.com/about/

Huh.  Thanks for that.  That's very interesting.  That model suggests something like seven times if I am reading that right.  Yet it is still less than 10% of the US population.


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 01:58:43 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 01:50:35 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   


That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

What do you believe?  Based on the responses to your post you seem to be in the minority if you believe the majority of cases have been accounted for with testing.  I wouldn't be surprised if 15-20X more people have had the virus than the official cases suggest (which would mean a fatality rate between 0.2% and 0.3%).  What do you believe the actual fatality rate is?

I have no idea.  I guess I was just surprised at the thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 01:59:44 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 10, 2020, 01:27:26 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

Why not?.  Some people don't exhibit symptoms.  Some others may mistake it for a cold and not bother getting tested.  Some others may worry about having to pay for a test.  Some others may not see the point of being tested, considering there's no cure.

Also, people may think it's a big, time-consuming hassle to get tested. Or, they might avoid getting tested because they don't want to test positive for social, work-related or other reasons.

Speaking for myself I think that I would have to be severely ill to go get a test.  Considering the ramifications that a positive test or PUI holds it's probably better just to self isolate and see if symptoms improve if you have anything mild.  I know in my case I rather not be involved in some sort of contact tracing program or having to provide test paperwork upon being questioned if I've ever tested positive.  Besides, the lines to get tested usually are extremely long and filled with people who have mild symptoms...seems kind of pointless to add to that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 02:06:57 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 01:58:12 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 10, 2020, 01:26:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   

That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

At a minimum.  The best estimates from the CDC are closer to 10 times as many as have tested positive.

For predictions, I'd look at this model first.  It's by Youyang Gu, and Gu has been rather accurate thus far with this model.
https://covid19-projections.com/
https://covid19-projections.com/about/

Huh.  Thanks for that.  That's very interesting.  That model suggests something like seven times if I am reading that right.  Yet it is still less than 10% of the US population.

I think it says more about mortality statistics more than anything.  The projected mortality rate of COVID-19 has been dropping more and more as the months wear on.  At the start of the first epidemic in China numbers like 4% were being tossed around.  As the pandemic got going the estimated mortality rate fell to 0.3-0.4% from what CDC data I looked at last (upthread somewhere).  Granted that doesn't factor in things like people who survive but are greatly affected physically in some way.  Nonetheless it is pretty clear at this point that COVID-19 is far deadlier than a common Flu it definitely isn't approaching the 1918 Spanish Flu level that often was being cited months ago. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:12:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 02:06:57 PM
it definitely isn't approaching the 1918 Spanish Flu level that often was being cited months ago. 

Playing the Devil's advocate, I'll say that medical care a century ago wasn't what it is now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 02:12:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.
Um I'd stay away from Florida with a 10 foot pole at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 10, 2020, 02:25:59 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 02:12:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.
Um I'd stay away from Florida with a 10 foot pole at the moment.
I think a 6-foot pole is recommended.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 02:30:56 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 02:06:57 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 01:58:12 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 10, 2020, 01:26:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 11:08:16 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 10:23:00 AM
Positive cases per total population = How well we're containing the virus.

Deaths per positive cases = How well we're managing cases.

At least, that's the way I look at it.  Deaths per total population is just a function of the other two things.

Deaths per positive cases is largely a function of how much testing is being done.  The UK has a case fatality rate of 15.5% (44,650 deaths among 288,133 cases) because they have done much less testing than America which has a case fatality rate of only 4.4% (135,978 deaths among 3,235,926 cases).  The actual fatality rate of the virus is almost certainly below 1.0% when you consider all the people who actually got the virus and not just the confirmed cases through testing.   

That would mean four times as many people have the virus than have tested positive.  You really believe that?

At a minimum.  The best estimates from the CDC are closer to 10 times as many as have tested positive.

For predictions, I'd look at this model first.  It's by Youyang Gu, and Gu has been rather accurate thus far with this model.
https://covid19-projections.com/
https://covid19-projections.com/about/

Huh.  Thanks for that.  That's very interesting.  That model suggests something like seven times if I am reading that right.  Yet it is still less than 10% of the US population.

I think it says more about mortality statistics more than anything.  The projected mortality rate of COVID-19 has been dropping more and more as the months wear on.  At the start of the first epidemic in China numbers like 4% were being tossed around.  As the pandemic got going the estimated mortality rate fell to 0.3-0.4% from what CDC data I looked at last (upthread somewhere).  Granted that doesn't factor in things like people who survive but are greatly affected physically in some way.  Nonetheless it is pretty clear at this point that COVID-19 is far deadlier than a common Flu it definitely isn't approaching the 1918 Spanish Flu level that often was being cited months ago. 


Yeah I mean when you see hospitalizations and deaths like we are seeing in certain places, it is obvious that this is very dangerous.  Especially when you consider that we haven't even started going back in places like schools, colleges, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 10, 2020, 02:53:54 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PMHas anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.

I can't imagine going to Florida, especially at this time of year.  I personally haven't left Kansas at all since this crisis began--it is just not worth it to be away from home base with a pandemic going on, especially with many tourist attractions either closed or under severe restriction.

We have to RSVP by August 1 for a family wedding that is being held on August 22 in rural Iowa about thirty minutes' drive out of downtown Omaha.  Since the criterion for inclusion on Kansas' quarantine list is new cases over the past two weeks three (or more) times greater than Kansas over the same period, I do not think chances are high that quarantine will be required for either Nebraska or Iowa, though they have higher case counts per 100,000 population than we do.  But, frankly, I would feel much better about going to this wedding after the pandemic is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 03:00:24 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:12:40 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 02:06:57 PM
it definitely isn't approaching the 1918 Spanish Flu level that often was being cited months ago. 

Playing the Devil's advocate, I'll say that medical care a century ago wasn't what it is now.

True, but it didn't help that World War I vastly aided the spread and distribution of the Spanish a Flu.  That was back in the era was casualties was far more acceptable in every facet of society than now.  The Spanish Flu was running rampant all over the end stage of World War I and commanders weren't going to shut down combat operations because people got sick.  Even in places like the United States it wasn't too far removed from a time when things like TB killed people on the regular, early Death was far more part of everyday life. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 03:02:23 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 10, 2020, 02:25:59 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 02:12:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.
Um I'd stay away from Florida with a 10 foot pole at the moment.
I think a 6-foot pole is recommended.

Some have been pushing for a 12-15 foot "pole"  so to speak.  Last week there was a lot of news stories about COVID being airborne and something about how a lot of professionals were staying the WHO was ignoring the evidence.  That 12-15 recommendation was cited in those stories frequently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 10, 2020, 02:53:54 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.

I can't imagine going to Florida, especially at this time of year.  I personally haven't left Kansas at all since this crisis began--it is just not worth it to be away from home base with a pandemic going on, especially with many tourist attractions either closed or under severe restriction.

We have to RSVP by August 1 for a family wedding that is being held on August 22 in rural Iowa about thirty minutes' drive out of downtown Omaha.  Since the criterion for inclusion on Kansas' quarantine list is new cases over the past two weeks three (or more) times greater than Kansas over the same period, I do not think chances are high that quarantine will be required for either Nebraska or Iowa, though they have higher case counts per 100,000 population than we do.  But, frankly, I would feel much better about going to this wedding after the pandemic is over.

I wondered why people would go to Florida in the middle of the summer, but I'm not much of a beach person myself.

As for traveling out of state, I know plenty of people who are still traveling.  My sister and her husband have driven down from Iowa, my parents recently drove up to Iowa from here to visit family, our good friends went on a family vacation to Wyoming with camper trailer in tow a few weeks ago.

Heck, our eldest son just got invited to go on a church youth group trip to Table Rock lake in three weeks.  My wife and I decided to decline that invitation, primarily because the people hosting the group are some of the most vocally anti-everything-coronavirus-related people we know, so we don't really expect there to be any sort of caution whatsoever–not to mention the six-hour-each-way van drive with children of various families.  (I'm kind of wondering if anyone will even accept.)  Besides which, I don't have any confidence that Missouri will even be letting Kansas into their state without self-quarantining by the time the trip comes around.

But none of the people I personally know who have traveled recently have done so with full expectation of home-quarantining.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 03:30:02 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 02:30:56 PM
Yeah I mean when you see hospitalizations and deaths like we are seeing in certain places, it is obvious that this is very dangerous.  Especially when you consider that we haven't even started going back in places like schools, colleges, etc.

But the deaths in Florida doesn't seem to compare to what happened in NY in April.  According to worldometer it took NY only 24 days for daily deaths to rise from 33 to 999.  Compare that to Florida where 24 days ago the state was averaging 33 daily deaths.  Today they are averaging 56 daily deaths.  That's not a huge increase compared to what we saw in NY. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 04:01:06 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 10, 2020, 03:30:02 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 02:30:56 PM
Yeah I mean when you see hospitalizations and deaths like we are seeing in certain places, it is obvious that this is very dangerous.  Especially when you consider that we haven't even started going back in places like schools, colleges, etc.

But the deaths in Florida doesn't seem to compare to what happened in NY in April.  According to worldometer it took NY only 24 days for daily deaths to rise from 33 to 999.  Compare that to Florida where 24 days ago the state was averaging 33 daily deaths.  Today they are averaging 56 daily deaths.  That's not a huge increase compared to what we saw in NY. 


My opinion: the people infected are younger and we are better at managing the disease now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 10, 2020, 04:01:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 03:02:23 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 10, 2020, 02:25:59 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 02:12:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.
Um I'd stay away from Florida with a 10 foot pole at the moment.
I think a 6-foot pole is recommended.

Some have been pushing for a 12-15 foot "pole"  so to speak.  Last week there was a lot of news stories about COVID being airborne and something about how a lot of professionals were staying the WHO was ignoring the evidence.  That 12-15 recommendation was cited in those stories frequently.
1 mile is probably even safer.  what would 12-15' mean in terms of common situations? Is it feasible and manageable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 10, 2020, 04:03:13 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 10, 2020, 02:53:54 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.

I can't imagine going to Florida, especially at this time of year.  I personally haven't left Kansas at all since this crisis began--it is just not worth it to be away from home base with a pandemic going on, especially with many tourist attractions either closed or under severe restriction.

We have to RSVP by August 1 for a family wedding that is being held on August 22 in rural Iowa about thirty minutes' drive out of downtown Omaha.  Since the criterion for inclusion on Kansas' quarantine list is new cases over the past two weeks three (or more) times greater than Kansas over the same period, I do not think chances are high that quarantine will be required for either Nebraska or Iowa, though they have higher case counts per 100,000 population than we do.  But, frankly, I would feel much better about going to this wedding after the pandemic is over.

I wondered why people would go to Florida in the middle of the summer, but I'm not much of a beach person myself.

As for traveling out of state, I know plenty of people who are still traveling.  My sister and her husband have driven down from Iowa, my parents recently drove up to Iowa from here to visit family, our good friends went on a family vacation to Wyoming with camper trailer in tow a few weeks ago.

Heck, our eldest son just got invited to go on a church youth group trip to Table Rock lake in three weeks.  My wife and I decided to decline that invitation, primarily because the people hosting the group are some of the most vocally anti-everything-coronavirus-related people we know, so we don't really expect there to be any sort of caution whatsoever–not to mention the six-hour-each-way van drive with children of various families.  (I'm kind of wondering if anyone will even accept.)  Besides which, I don't have any confidence that Missouri will even be letting Kansas into their state without self-quarantining by the time the trip comes around.

But none of the people I personally know who have traveled recently have done so with full expectation of home-quarantining.


My wife and I are getting out of here for a weekend in a couple of weeks.  Just a road trip to somewhere we haven't been before.  My wife has spent every night but one at our house for the past year.  I have a couple business trips in there, but none since January.

We need a break.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 04:25:30 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 06, 2020, 01:31:27 PM
Depending on how loosely you define the word "know", my wife and I now know someone who has tested positive.  It is the relative of a customer of my wife's MLM business.  We've met him once, maybe twice.  I'm kind of surprised it's taken this long for us to personally know someone who's tested positive.

It's now quite likely that some pretty good husband-and-wife friends of ours have COVID-19.  The wife's mom works in health care and was unknowingly exposed to someone with it at work.  Before she found that out, though, our friends spent time over at their house.  Now our friends have several telltale symptoms–including cough, loss of smell, lethargy, fever.  Their symptoms are mild:  the wife, a teacher, even said there have been days in the past she's gone to work feeling worse than they do now.  They got tested for COVID-19 yesterday and are awaiting the results.

In between that time spent with family and finding all of this out, our friends were at church.

Before worship services were first shut down back in March, their daughter always used to run up to my wife when we walked in the door and give her a huge hug.  They have a special bond because my wife was her childcare provider when she was little.  Last Sunday, she said to my wife, "I told my parents I didn't want to come back to church because I can't give you a hug anymore".  My wife told her, "We're both wearing masks, so let's both go wash our hands and then we can hug".  And that's what they did.

The husband plays electric guitar in the church band, so I was up in the front with him on Sunday (I'm the drummer) but not really near him.  And everyone in the band had masks on the whole time we played music.

Because of all this, it was just announced that worship is canceled for this Sunday.

I've been saying for a while now that singing in church is probably the riskiest behavior we do during the week.  At a grocery store, we only briefly pass by people and most of our time is spent away from others.  But, singing in church, we're surrounded by people for a prolonged time–people who because they're singing are naturally expelling more breath than usual, people whose Monday—Saturday social interactions we don't really know much about.  Sure, the rows are now spread six feet apart, but still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 10, 2020, 04:01:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 03:02:23 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 10, 2020, 02:25:59 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 02:12:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.
Um I'd stay away from Florida with a 10 foot pole at the moment.
I think a 6-foot pole is recommended.

Some have been pushing for a 12-15 foot "pole"  so to speak.  Last week there was a lot of news stories about COVID being airborne and something about how a lot of professionals were staying the WHO was ignoring the evidence.  That 12-15 recommendation was cited in those stories frequently.
1 mile is probably even safer.  what would 12-15' mean in terms of common situations? Is it feasible and manageable?

That's what supposedly was being suggested was the 12-15 foot distance.  To that end I can't fathom that being realistic in any facet and definitely would be ignored.  If it was 39.5 foot then we would be onto something, but I would need a big pole. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 10, 2020, 06:05:42 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 04:47:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 10, 2020, 04:01:58 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 10, 2020, 03:02:23 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 10, 2020, 02:25:59 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 10, 2020, 02:12:58 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

My wife knows two people who are either currently in Florida or will be going to Florida soon, and they're just planning to home-quarantine for two weeks when they get back to Kansas.
Um I'd stay away from Florida with a 10 foot pole at the moment.
I think a 6-foot pole is recommended.

Some have been pushing for a 12-15 foot "pole"  so to speak.  Last week there was a lot of news stories about COVID being airborne and something about how a lot of professionals were staying the WHO was ignoring the evidence.  That 12-15 recommendation was cited in those stories frequently.
1 mile is probably even safer.  what would 12-15' mean in terms of common situations? Is it feasible and manageable?

That's what supposedly was being suggested was the 12-15 foot distance.  To that end I can't fathom that being realistic in any facet and definitely would be ignored.  If it was 39.5 foot then we would be onto something, but I would need a big pole. 

I keep as much distance as I can at the store, but it's not always easy. I also wear a mask when I go out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on July 10, 2020, 07:40:41 PM
People are about 50/50 on keeping six feet apart, mostly because humans are selfish and/or poor judges of distances. People are getting a bit impatient in stores compared to a few months ago...basically, they're reverting back to previous habits. I didn't notice a run on paprika, so why reach 3 inches from my face? Wait the extra 10 seconds and try to excuse yourself if you went the wrong way down the already-occupied aisle.

Didn't really have much of a problem in suburban Seattle/Redmond, but I think the distancing and the overall quarantine situation has been going on longer. Airports haven't been that bad, either...I'm not expecting perfection there as there's always some confusion there.

I've had exactly one person (some 20-year-old twerp) actually quibble about my mask. I quietly flicked him off, and the conversation ended right there while waiting in a line for take-out. So these masks are effective at stopping bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 10, 2020, 07:50:44 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
I wondered why people would go to Florida in the middle of the summer, but I'm not much of a beach person myself.

It's when school is out. I've only been to Florida twice. Once on a high school band trip, and once on a family vacation. My dad was a teacher, so summer was the only time when we could take family trips.

It was on that trip that I discovered that my dad had a bit of roadgeek in him. On our way home, after we finished at St. Augustine, Dad decided to drive up into Georgia to the southern terminus of US 25, and then take that route most of the way home. It's one of the closest US routes to my hometown, and it went right through the college campus my dad attended (Berea College). We took 25 all the way to the point where it intersected I-26, but opted for I-40 and I-81 to Morristown instead of staying on 25 through Asheville and Marshall to Newport. I got my clinch of 25 (and the E and W splits) years later, but Dad seemed to want to drive as much of 25 as he could until he decided to take the faster way home once we got closer.




I went to the doctor in Lexington today. Traffic was about normal on the Mountain Parkway and I-64, but decidedly lighter on the Lexington routes I was on (Man O'War, Alumni Drive, Nicholasville Road.) When I went into the doctor's office, they asked a bunch of questions and I will readily admit to lying about a couple of them. I'm 58 years old. Of course I get muscle aches and pains, and I get an occasional headache. If I have drainage in my throat, sometimes I'll cough. Some poor guy who got queried after me admitted to coughing, but then had to clarify it by saying he's a smoker, he drives a truck and doesn't cough when he's in northern climes but as soon as he gets back into Kentucky where the humidity is higher, he starts coughing. I was thinking, "Dude, just say 'no' and be done with it. Temp scan was 96.7.

Coming out, traffic was pretty much normal, but it was lunch hour. Went to Culver's to eat, but the dining room was closed and the drive-through was terribly backed up, so I left. Thought about Raising Cane's, but their dining room was also closed and the drive-through was even worse than Culver's. So I ended up eating inside at Freddy's.

Paid $1.959 for gas at Murphy Oil; saw the same price at Thornton's and Speedway at I-75 Exit 110 while gas was $2.059 at the Man O'War exit (Shell, Meijer) just south.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 10, 2020, 08:55:36 PM
Texas is still going downhill.  We now have around 10,000 new cases per day, and 100 deaths per day.  The Beaumont area, with a population of 1.3 million was down to 1 ICU bed available.  They're up to 9.  I don't know if people got better, or died, or got shipped out (or if they assembled more beds).  The Houston area, with 6.7 million, has 98 ICU beds.  The DFW area, population 8 million, has been doing better, in part because of the vast capacity, but is now down to 259 ICU beds (it dropped pretty quickly from above 400, as hospitalizations rose from 1,100 to 1,900).  The Brownsville area, population 1.4 million, is down to 22 ICU beds and they're now requesting a field hospital be set up by the feds.  The state has already shipped in support personnel.  The Hidalgo County health authority is complaining about people not taking it seriously.  The ICU availability is reported by "trauma service area," so we don't know where exactly the available capacity is.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/article/As-Texas-reports-10K-COVID-patients-officials-15400477.php (https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/article/As-Texas-reports-10K-COVID-patients-officials-15400477.php)

https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Tsunami-of-COVID-cases-crushing-Hidalgo-15398472.php (https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Tsunami-of-COVID-cases-crushing-Hidalgo-15398472.php)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 10, 2020, 09:36:42 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 10, 2020, 11:46:36 AM
There are quite a few things to think about in terms of throughput because, especially in the US with its patchwork healthcare system, it is very easy to create disincentives to get tested.

There's also the issue that Americans' stubborn desire to minimize disruption to their own personal lives creates its own disincentive. Someone feeling a little sick but not too bad may not want to go get tested so that they aren't forced to quarantine at home if they test positive. Someone who has recently traveled to a hot state but feels fine may not want to go get tested in order to stay under the radar and avoid getting in trouble for not quarantining like they're supposed to.

It should be noted that in China, when they started setting up temperature checkpoints, they would force people to drop what they're doing and immediately go get tested if they had a fever. And anyone getting tested would be detained at the testing site until their results came back, you'd have to test negative before you'd be released and permitted to resume going about your business.

Now, this isn't China, and authorities in the US do not have the authority to do that. But the fact remains that your testing regime is inherently limited in effectiveness for as long as going and getting tested is entirely voluntary.

I do think that because of this we could stand to have less mandatory quarantining and more mandatory testing. Forget about making people isolate at home because they traveled, but you know what? Make it so no one gets on an airplane without a negative test. Procure rapid testing kits and have the TSA administer them to everyone. Would be the most useful thing the TSA has ever done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 11, 2020, 12:09:43 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 10, 2020, 02:53:54 PM
I can't imagine going to Florida, especially at this time of year.

I wondered why people would go to Florida in the middle of the summer, but I'm not much of a beach person myself.

I would not call myself a beach person either but I've never been to Florida and certainly wouldn't go there in the summer. This summer has been bad enough here, 1200 miles north. IMO Florida and South Carolina beaches are for winter; North Carolina and Virginia beaches could go either way, and from Maryland north the beaches are for summer.

Pretty much everyone I know did some sort of traveling over the July 4th long weekend. I did, mostly in the Delmarva Peninsula and to/from home. There were many out-of-state license plates both on the road and at the ocean. It was the first time I'd been out of state since January, and the first time I clinched any new counties in almost a year.


Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
Besides which, I don't have any confidence that Missouri will even be letting Kansas into their state without self-quarantining ...

I wonder what kind of legal procedures would be involved in one state moving into another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 11, 2020, 12:29:52 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 10, 2020, 07:50:44 PM
... he drives a truck and doesn't cough when he's in northern climes but as soon as he gets back into Kentucky where the humidity is higher, he starts coughing.

I thought humidity was mostly affected by east/west, not north/south. It's plenty humid here in the summer, I wouldn't have thought humidity could possibly increase by much more as you head south.


Quote from: hbelkins on July 10, 2020, 07:50:44 PM
Coming out, traffic was pretty much normal, but it was lunch hour.

Yeah, I tried to start a thread about that once, but it kinda flopped (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26942.0)...
In any case, I do think mid-day traffic being similar to pre-pandemic is one thing that's more or less consistent everywhere in the country, while AM and PM rush hours are more variable: nowhere near normal in this area, but others have mentioned "similar" or "slightly less" traffic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 11, 2020, 03:34:34 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 10, 2020, 07:50:44 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 03:04:10 PM
I wondered why people would go to Florida in the middle of the summer, but I'm not much of a beach person myself.

It's when school is out. I've only been to Florida twice. Once on a high school band trip, and once on a family vacation. My dad was a teacher, so summer was the only time when we could take family trips.

I don't get it either but it is a big thing.

Growing up we went to Florida on vacation a bunch of times, but we did so the week our schools had their winter break in February. The entire point was to go somewhere warm when it was cold at home.
We would often have a separate summer vacation, but these trips were mostly to places no more than a few hours' drive away.


This year in particular, a lot of people in the northeast wanted to go and get away somewhere once travel restrictions began lifting, and because people are basic and unoriginal a lot of them chose Florida as their destination. At the same time, a lot of these people made a point of going to bars and/or large house parties while they were in Florida, since these things are still not allowed in the northeast. Nevermind that there is a good reason why these things are still not allowed up here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 11, 2020, 09:23:22 AM
The panhandle of Florida is a bigtime summer vacation spot.  I've been there a few times in the late Spring / early summer, and while it most certainly is hot, isn't like going to Orlando or something like that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 11, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
An interesting risk estimation:
(https://www.texmed.org/uploadedimages/Current/Images/TMT_Images/COVID-19_Risk_Chart_Final.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 12:44:58 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 11, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
An interesting risk estimation:
(https://www.texmed.org/uploadedimages/Current/Images/TMT_Images/COVID-19_Risk_Chart_Final.jpg)
Looks like school is less risky than indoor dining.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on July 11, 2020, 01:39:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 12:44:58 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 11, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
An interesting risk estimation:
redacted
Looks like school is less risky than indoor dining.
Which makes me wonder how the lunch period will play out. The social aspect of it will likely be lost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 11, 2020, 01:44:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

If my workplace gets too obnoxious (and boy, they are sure working on slowly but steadily inching up there), I am considering a county-clinching trip to Texas. None of the counties I would be visiting have a meaningful number of cases, but my workplace's policies do not discriminate between "drove through unincorporated Ochiltree County without stopping" and "licked every toilet in Houston", so either way, I'd get some "involuntary" unpaid time off work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Ben114 on July 11, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on July 11, 2020, 01:39:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 12:44:58 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 11, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
An interesting risk estimation:
redacted
Looks like school is less risky than indoor dining.
Which makes me wonder how the lunch period will play out. The social aspect of it will likely be lost.
Massachusetts is requiring students to eat in the classroom when schools open back up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 02:48:09 PM
Quote from: Ben114 on July 11, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on July 11, 2020, 01:39:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 12:44:58 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 11, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
An interesting risk estimation:
redacted
Looks like school is less risky than indoor dining.
Which makes me wonder how the lunch period will play out. The social aspect of it will likely be lost.
Massachusetts is requiring students to eat in the classroom when schools open back up.
Given the crowds at the cafeteria, I'm not the least bit surprised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on July 11, 2020, 02:55:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?
Anywhere's a risk - some are just higher risks than others.  Florida is the highest - that state's government is oblivious to the reality

That being said - pondering a trip -- but it won't go south of Virginia or west of Illinois.  The route taken depends on how NJ/NY treat the midwest (outside Iowa) - and I won't be surprised if IL and WI make their "list".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on July 11, 2020, 02:56:49 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 11, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
An interesting risk estimation:
<image clipped to shrink the post>
From one state's point of view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 11, 2020, 03:21:43 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 11, 2020, 01:44:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

If my workplace gets too obnoxious (and boy, they are sure working on slowly but steadily inching up there), I am considering a county-clinching trip to Texas. None of the counties I would be visiting have a meaningful number of cases, but my workplace's policies do not discriminate between "drove through unincorporated Ochiltree County without stopping" and "licked every toilet in Houston", so either way, I'd get some "involuntary" unpaid time off work.

Again, I ask ... how would they know if you went to Texas on your own time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 03:50:33 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 11, 2020, 02:55:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?
Anywhere's a risk - some are just higher risks than others.  Florida is the highest - that state's government is oblivious to the reality

That being said - pondering a trip -- but it won't go south of Virginia or west of Illinois.  The route taken depends on how NJ/NY treat the midwest (outside Iowa) - and I won't be surprised if IL and WI make their "list".
I thought that Illinois's cases were flat?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 11, 2020, 04:04:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 03:50:33 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 11, 2020, 02:55:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?
Anywhere's a risk - some are just higher risks than others.  Florida is the highest - that state's government is oblivious to the reality

That being said - pondering a trip -- but it won't go south of Virginia or west of Illinois.  The route taken depends on how NJ/NY treat the midwest (outside Iowa) - and I won't be surprised if IL and WI make their "list".
I thought that Illinois's cases were flat?

Illinois is increasing slowly. The only states that are truly flat are in the northeast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 11, 2020, 04:06:40 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 11, 2020, 04:04:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 03:50:33 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 11, 2020, 02:55:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?
Anywhere's a risk - some are just higher risks than others.  Florida is the highest - that state's government is oblivious to the reality

That being said - pondering a trip -- but it won't go south of Virginia or west of Illinois.  The route taken depends on how NJ/NY treat the midwest (outside Iowa) - and I won't be surprised if IL and WI make their "list".
I thought that Illinois's cases were flat?

Illinois is increasing slowly. The only states that are truly flat are in the northeast.

The testing volume has been huge the past few days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 11, 2020, 04:24:28 PM
Any state that isn't CT, RI, VT, NH, ME or MT is either way by the same or losing the battle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 11, 2020, 04:28:30 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 11, 2020, 04:24:28 PM
Any state that isn't CT, RI, VT, NH, ME or MT is either way by the same or losing the battle.

Even assuming MT was a typo, New York and New Jersey are doing as well as New England.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 11, 2020, 04:32:58 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 11, 2020, 04:28:30 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 11, 2020, 04:24:28 PM
Any state that isn't CT, RI, VT, NH, ME or MT is either way by the same or losing the battle.

Even assuming MT was a typo, New York and New Jersey are doing as well as New England.
It isn't a typo. Montana has had very few case
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 11, 2020, 04:38:19 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 11, 2020, 04:24:28 PM
Any state that isn't CT, RI, VT, NH, ME or MT is either way by the same or losing the battle.
No MA/NY/NJ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NE2 on July 11, 2020, 05:01:07 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 09, 2020, 12:44:50 PM
There's still a shortage of hand sanitizer, cleaning/disinfecting supplies, toilet paper, and paper towns in some locations here.
Why? Have people been camping out in the formerly empty paper towns?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: gonealookin on July 11, 2020, 11:36:16 PM
It has been more than 4 days since I took the test.  "Lamentablemente", you bet, because if I tested positive but don't know about it I've been spreading the virus all that time.  Need a quicker turnaround on the results.

(https://i.imgur.com/MRvAJIL.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on July 11, 2020, 11:59:08 PM
Find a place that does Rapid PCR testing on-site. I had a result within 15 minutes of being swabbed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: rickmastfan67 on July 12, 2020, 12:29:58 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 11, 2020, 03:21:43 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 11, 2020, 01:44:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

If my workplace gets too obnoxious (and boy, they are sure working on slowly but steadily inching up there), I am considering a county-clinching trip to Texas. None of the counties I would be visiting have a meaningful number of cases, but my workplace's policies do not discriminate between "drove through unincorporated Ochiltree County without stopping" and "licked every toilet in Houston", so either way, I'd get some "involuntary" unpaid time off work.

Again, I ask ... how would they know if you went to Texas on your own time?

Betting they make him keep a work phone on him at all times that is GPS tracked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on July 12, 2020, 12:50:11 AM
We're doing just fine.

(https://i.imgur.com/tvj12SN.png)

(The U.S. has 19 times more COVID-19 cases per capita than the EU...including the UK)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 12, 2020, 02:03:13 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 11, 2020, 03:21:43 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 11, 2020, 01:44:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 02:10:47 PM
Has anyone here continued with travel plans, knowing that you'd be required to home-quarantine based on the itinerary?

If my workplace gets too obnoxious (and boy, they are sure working on slowly but steadily inching up there), I am considering a county-clinching trip to Texas. None of the counties I would be visiting have a meaningful number of cases, but my workplace's policies do not discriminate between "drove through unincorporated Ochiltree County without stopping" and "licked every toilet in Houston", so either way, I'd get some "involuntary" unpaid time off work.

Again, I ask ... how would they know if you went to Texas on your own time?

They wouldn't. But I'd take a selfie under the "Drive Friendly–The Texas Way" sign with a big grin and send it to the boss so I can get the time off. Unpaid, mind you, but they also zeroed out my paid vacation time after we came back from lockdown. So I think it's only fair.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:17:25 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 12, 2020, 12:50:11 AM
We're doing just fine.

(https://i.imgur.com/tvj12SN.png)

(The U.S. has 19 times more COVID-19 cases per capita than the EU...including the UK)

This chart is confirmation bias for anyone who believes America sucks.  Maybe Europe has had 10 times more deaths than America (this chart doesn't tell me otherwise) but due to their woefully inadequate testing, their cases per million is lower than America.  Maybe Europe was totally inept at limiting the spread of the virus early on which explains why their curve is flat now (while America was effective at delaying the outbreak in many states which is saving lives today as doctors know how to better treat patients).  I'm not saying my scenario is accurate but you would never know it by simply looking at this chart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 12, 2020, 10:34:06 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

This chart is confirmation bias for anyone who believes America sucks.  Maybe Europe has had 10 times more deaths than America (this chart doesn't tell me otherwise) but due to their woefully inadequate testing, their cases per million is lower than America.  Maybe Europe was totally inept at limiting the spread of the virus early on which explains why their curve is flat now (while America was effective at delaying the outbreak in many states which is saving lives today as doctors know how to better treat patients).  I'm not saying my scenario is accurate but you would never know it by simply looking at this chart.

So, eliminate the bias of volume of testing by looking just at the curves individually and not the numbers they represent. Europe brought their daily infection rate down to about 15% of its peak and has kept it there. The US brought the daily infection rate down to about 65% of its peak and then shot back up to nearly double the previous peak. Looking at the data that way eliminates any bias due to differences in testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:44:54 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 12, 2020, 10:34:06 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

This chart is confirmation bias for anyone who believes America sucks.  Maybe Europe has had 10 times more deaths than America (this chart doesn't tell me otherwise) but due to their woefully inadequate testing, their cases per million is lower than America.  Maybe Europe was totally inept at limiting the spread of the virus early on which explains why their curve is flat now (while America was effective at delaying the outbreak in many states which is saving lives today as doctors know how to better treat patients).  I'm not saying my scenario is accurate but you would never know it by simply looking at this chart.

So, eliminate the bias of volume of testing by looking just at the curves individually and not the numbers they represent. Europe brought their daily infection rate down to about 15% of its peak and has kept it there. The US brought the daily infection rate down to about 65% of its peak and then shot back up to nearly double the previous peak. Looking at the data that way eliminates any bias due to differences in testing.

Maybe a better comparison is looking at the curve of the European Union to the curve of the Northeast United States.  Now the curves look nearly identical.  But can we argue that the Northeast is doing a better job compared to other regions of the United States because they have been able to flatten their curve?  Keep in mind the Northeast accounts for over 50% of COVID deaths in America while only making up 17% of the country's population.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cpsprodpb/14744/production/_113108738_optimised-us_cases_regions-nc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 12, 2020, 11:32:22 AM
And honestly, some people don't even care about the news. In a another Facebook group (not related to roads), someone posted that they need to shut more things down in New Jersey because cases are on the rise. I pointed out a news story showing it's clear cases have actually fallen. Then since I'm a little crass I asked why she even posted something with absolutely no proof whatsoever. That went unanswered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 12, 2020, 11:34:38 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 12, 2020, 12:50:11 AM
We're doing just fine.

(https://i.imgur.com/tvj12SN.png)

(The U.S. has 19 times more COVID-19 cases per capita than the EU...including the UK)
I've said this before but the stats in the US should be treated as if the states were individual countries. The states are 100% responsible for controlling the virus. EU nations are smaller and have more centralized governments, closer to how states operate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 12, 2020, 11:53:29 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 12, 2020, 11:32:22 AMAnd honestly, some people don't even care about the news. In a another Facebook group (not related to roads), someone posted that they need to shut more things down in New Jersey because cases are on the rise. I pointed out a news story showing it's clear cases have actually fallen. Then since I'm a little crass I asked why she even posted something with absolutely no proof whatsoever. That went unanswered.

This is what life is like under a different political dispensation.  In my county we now have about ten times as many active cases as we did a month ago, but the public conversation is all about masks.  The state has even published draft guidelines for reopening schools.  With cases still on the increase, I think it is more likely we will have to shut down again, but no-one is talking about that yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 12:06:52 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:44:54 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 12, 2020, 10:34:06 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

This chart is confirmation bias for anyone who believes America sucks.  Maybe Europe has had 10 times more deaths than America (this chart doesn't tell me otherwise) but due to their woefully inadequate testing, their cases per million is lower than America.  Maybe Europe was totally inept at limiting the spread of the virus early on which explains why their curve is flat now (while America was effective at delaying the outbreak in many states which is saving lives today as doctors know how to better treat patients).  I'm not saying my scenario is accurate but you would never know it by simply looking at this chart.

So, eliminate the bias of volume of testing by looking just at the curves individually and not the numbers they represent. Europe brought their daily infection rate down to about 15% of its peak and has kept it there. The US brought the daily infection rate down to about 65% of its peak and then shot back up to nearly double the previous peak. Looking at the data that way eliminates any bias due to differences in testing.

Maybe a better comparison is looking at the curve of the European Union to the curve of the Northeast United States.  Now the curves look nearly identical.  But can we argue that the Northeast is doing a better job compared to other regions of the United States because they have been able to flatten their curve?  Keep in mind the Northeast accounts for over 50% of COVID deaths in America while only making up 17% of the country's population.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cpsprodpb/14744/production/_113108738_optimised-us_cases_regions-nc.png)



Whatever makes you feel better I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 12, 2020, 12:09:06 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 12, 2020, 11:34:38 AM
Quote from: Bruce on July 12, 2020, 12:50:11 AM
We're doing just fine.

(https://i.imgur.com/tvj12SN.png)

(The U.S. has 19 times more COVID-19 cases per capita than the EU...including the UK)
I've said this before but the stats in the US should be treated as if the states were individual countries. The states are 100% responsible for controlling the virus. EU nations are smaller and have more centralized governments, closer to how states operate.
Yes, some states are doing well (Massachusetts), some, not so much (Texas)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 12:33:26 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 12, 2020, 12:09:06 PM
Yes, some states are doing well (Massachusetts), some, not so much (Texas)

The advantage of Texas, Florida, and Arizona going through their peaks during the summer is that it doesn't correspond with flu season.  My concern is for California who has been treading water for months but hasn't been able to eradicate the virus.  Worse case is a major outbreak starts up in California heading into the fall just as the flu season kicks off.  The most populous state in the country getting slammed with coronavirus at the same time as flu season... that isn't going to be a good scenario.  With the ramp up in testing, California could easily be seeing 30-40k positive tests a day during their peak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 12, 2020, 12:52:30 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 12:06:52 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:44:54 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 12, 2020, 10:34:06 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

This chart is confirmation bias for anyone who believes America sucks.  Maybe Europe has had 10 times more deaths than America (this chart doesn't tell me otherwise) but due to their woefully inadequate testing, their cases per million is lower than America.  Maybe Europe was totally inept at limiting the spread of the virus early on which explains why their curve is flat now (while America was effective at delaying the outbreak in many states which is saving lives today as doctors know how to better treat patients).  I'm not saying my scenario is accurate but you would never know it by simply looking at this chart.

So, eliminate the bias of volume of testing by looking just at the curves individually and not the numbers they represent. Europe brought their daily infection rate down to about 15% of its peak and has kept it there. The US brought the daily infection rate down to about 65% of its peak and then shot back up to nearly double the previous peak. Looking at the data that way eliminates any bias due to differences in testing.

Maybe a better comparison is looking at the curve of the European Union to the curve of the Northeast United States.  Now the curves look nearly identical.  But can we argue that the Northeast is doing a better job compared to other regions of the United States because they have been able to flatten their curve?  Keep in mind the Northeast accounts for over 50% of COVID deaths in America while only making up 17% of the country's population.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cpsprodpb/14744/production/_113108738_optimised-us_cases_regions-nc.png)



Whatever makes you feel better I guess.

There are multiple contradictory ways of explaining things.
EU and US NE were definitely taken by surprise. Nobody really expected what has happened. Part of the reason is arrogance and outright racism, part - genuine unpreparedness. But the crisis was somehow handled and extinguished, not without significant losses. US South cannot claim "by surprize" - NYC was all over the news. (Wuhan was as well, honesty speaking)
Another aspect is the weather. Indoors vs too hot outdoors is the most obvious factor. It may make an interesting turn of events for cooler areas (NE, EU) in winter. I guess we will see.

However, reluctance on enforcing mask orders - and the resulting growth in the south -  tells one thing: US governments and population at large can no longer respond to challenges (until a proper response is a swarm of B-52s and Tomohawks)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 12, 2020, 01:19:46 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 12, 2020, 12:52:30 PM
However, reluctance on enforcing mask orders - and the resulting growth in the south -  tells one thing: US governments and population at large can no longer respond to challenges (until a proper response is a swarm of B-52s and Tomohawks)

The ironic thing about this, is that the US amd its citizens prides itself on having the ability to say what you want to say and do what you want to do. Unfortunately in times like this it backfires, because suddenly people feel it's a constitutional right to wear masks or not, or do things that would otherwise be helpful in curtailing an issue. And as much as wearing shirts and shoes into a business should be normal, there still people that feel they don't need to do it all the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Sctvhound on July 12, 2020, 03:52:00 PM
If you labeled this "World War III,"  people's attitudes would have been completely different. This is a war against a virus that barely existed outside of one Chinese city last Christmas. 570,000 people have died worldwide in barely over 6 months.

That's more people than living in the entire metro areas of Lexington KY, Lansing MI, Chattanooga, and Spokane WA. In 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 12, 2020, 03:54:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 12:06:52 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:44:54 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 12, 2020, 10:34:06 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

This chart is confirmation bias for anyone who believes America sucks.  Maybe Europe has had 10 times more deaths than America (this chart doesn't tell me otherwise) but due to their woefully inadequate testing, their cases per million is lower than America.  Maybe Europe was totally inept at limiting the spread of the virus early on which explains why their curve is flat now (while America was effective at delaying the outbreak in many states which is saving lives today as doctors know how to better treat patients).  I'm not saying my scenario is accurate but you would never know it by simply looking at this chart.

So, eliminate the bias of volume of testing by looking just at the curves individually and not the numbers they represent. Europe brought their daily infection rate down to about 15% of its peak and has kept it there. The US brought the daily infection rate down to about 65% of its peak and then shot back up to nearly double the previous peak. Looking at the data that way eliminates any bias due to differences in testing.

Maybe a better comparison is looking at the curve of the European Union to the curve of the Northeast United States.  Now the curves look nearly identical.  But can we argue that the Northeast is doing a better job compared to other regions of the United States because they have been able to flatten their curve?  Keep in mind the Northeast accounts for over 50% of COVID deaths in America while only making up 17% of the country's population.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cpsprodpb/14744/production/_113108738_optimised-us_cases_regions-nc.png)



Whatever makes you feel better I guess.

Whatever makes you feel worse, I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 12, 2020, 05:24:45 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on July 12, 2020, 03:52:00 PM
If you labeled this "World War III,"  people's attitudes would have been completely different. This is a war against a virus that barely existed outside of one Chinese city last Christmas. 570,000 people have died worldwide in barely over 6 months.

That's more people than living in the entire metro areas of Lexington KY, Lansing MI, Chattanooga, and Spokane WA. In 6 months.
News flash: around 40 million people died within past 6 months from reasons not related to pandemic.
That's more people than living in the entire metro areas of NYC and LA combined. In 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 12, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 12, 2020, 05:24:45 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on July 12, 2020, 03:52:00 PM
If you labeled this "World War III,"  people's attitudes would have been completely different. This is a war against a virus that barely existed outside of one Chinese city last Christmas. 570,000 people have died worldwide in barely over 6 months.

That's more people than living in the entire metro areas of Lexington KY, Lansing MI, Chattanooga, and Spokane WA. In 6 months.
News flash: around 40 million people died within past 6 months from reasons not related to pandemic.
That's more people than living in the entire metro areas of NYC and LA combined. In 6 months.

How many were traffic accidents?
How many were expiring from old age?
How many were Darwin candidates?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 07:38:00 PM
This current pandemic is similar to the 1968 Hong Kong Flu where an estimated 100,000 Americans died.  Similar to this current pandemic, the majority of excess deaths during the Hong Kong flu occurred in people 65 years and older. To keep things in perspective, the deaths per capita during this current pandemic is lower than the deaths per capita during the 1968 Hong Kong Flu. 

But this current pandemic isn't over yet.  Ultimately i think we see anywhere from 200-300k COVID deaths in the United States.  That would be a similar death per capita that the country saw during the 1957-1958 Asian Flu.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 12, 2020, 03:54:51 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 12:06:52 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:44:54 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 12, 2020, 10:34:06 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

This chart is confirmation bias for anyone who believes America sucks.  Maybe Europe has had 10 times more deaths than America (this chart doesn't tell me otherwise) but due to their woefully inadequate testing, their cases per million is lower than America.  Maybe Europe was totally inept at limiting the spread of the virus early on which explains why their curve is flat now (while America was effective at delaying the outbreak in many states which is saving lives today as doctors know how to better treat patients).  I'm not saying my scenario is accurate but you would never know it by simply looking at this chart.

So, eliminate the bias of volume of testing by looking just at the curves individually and not the numbers they represent. Europe brought their daily infection rate down to about 15% of its peak and has kept it there. The US brought the daily infection rate down to about 65% of its peak and then shot back up to nearly double the previous peak. Looking at the data that way eliminates any bias due to differences in testing.

Maybe a better comparison is looking at the curve of the European Union to the curve of the Northeast United States.  Now the curves look nearly identical.  But can we argue that the Northeast is doing a better job compared to other regions of the United States because they have been able to flatten their curve?  Keep in mind the Northeast accounts for over 50% of COVID deaths in America while only making up 17% of the country's population.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cpsprodpb/14744/production/_113108738_optimised-us_cases_regions-nc.png)



Whatever makes you feel better I guess.

Whatever makes you feel worse, I guess.


Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 12, 2020, 08:21:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

What we do know is there was massive amounts of deaths in New York.  That state was a disaster zone in April.  But compare that to LA County which has seen declining daily deaths over the past two months even as the test positivity rate has been on the rise.  These numbers seem to defy logic but whatever LA County is doing seems to be working (especially when compared to what happened in NYC).

(https://i.imgur.com/SVRGIWx.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 12, 2020, 08:47:22 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 12, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 12, 2020, 05:24:45 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on July 12, 2020, 03:52:00 PM
If you labeled this "World War III,"  people's attitudes would have been completely different. This is a war against a virus that barely existed outside of one Chinese city last Christmas. 570,000 people have died worldwide in barely over 6 months.

That's more people than living in the entire metro areas of Lexington KY, Lansing MI, Chattanooga, and Spokane WA. In 6 months.
News flash: around 40 million people died within past 6 months from reasons not related to pandemic.
That's more people than living in the entire metro areas of NYC and LA combined. In 6 months.

How many were traffic accidents?
How many were expiring from old age?
How many were Darwin candidates?

The bolded one could also apply to people that died from COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 01:14:05 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 11, 2020, 11:56:21 AM
An interesting risk estimation:

(https://www.texmed.org/uploadedimages/Current/Images/TMT_Images/COVID-19_Risk_Chart_Final.jpg)


Good.  Only religious services with more than 500 in attendance pose any risk.   :crazy:  :hmmm:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 41 on July 13, 2020, 01:35:40 PM
I eat inside restaurants everyday which is a 7 on the risk chart. I'm a truck driver and quite frankly if there are mass shutdowns again this winter and I can't dine in a restaurant I'm turning in my keys. Most restaurants just shut down the last time if they couldn't have dine in, even in the truck stops. I'm not eating fast food again everyday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:23:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Yeah, 'cause that would have been effective.   :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on July 13, 2020, 02:33:15 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 12, 2020, 05:24:45 PM
Quote from: Sctvhound on July 12, 2020, 03:52:00 PM
If you labeled this “World War III,” people’s attitudes would have been completely different. This is a war against a virus that barely existed outside of one Chinese city last Christmas. 570,000 people have died worldwide in barely over 6 months.

That’s more people than living in the entire metro areas of Lexington KY, Lansing MI, Chattanooga, and Spokane WA. In 6 months.
News flash: around 40 million people died within past 6 months from reasons not related to pandemic.
That’s more people than living in the entire metro areas of NYC and LA combined. In 6 months.

Except that's now one more reason people are dying. Might as well say, "yeah, but lawn dart accidents are zero".

Look at like this: chose your favorite passenger vehicle, and load it to capacity. Everyone gets a seat belt. Then, add one more passenger...what's one more, after all? But they don't get a seat nor a seat belt. Chances are, the conveyance departs, goes somewhere, and arrives, with no accidents, and nobody gets hurt. But what happens if there is an accident? Someone is going get hurt or die, with an impact on the health of others.

So it's too cavalier to say, "more people die from X than Y", and then do nothing about it...so why bother? Perhaps some people can make room, make seats, increase demand, find ways to reduce capacity, but really everyone just wants things to get back to normal as quickly as possible without thought of the consequences. Basically, take the path of least resistance because that make people who aren't ill to feel better.

Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

Sure, that'll fix it. Except this really could have been a signature moment for national leadership to make stand and do something about it. Or at least, actually make some sense of it for the populace and deferred it to individuals who knew what they were doing.

We can't have each state making their own rules for things while subsequently allowing anyone to walk in and out of those rules. Works fine for most situations, but less so when the enemy is microscopic and virtually undetectable.

It's amazing how the tiniest thing becomes the elephant in the room.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 13, 2020, 02:33:48 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

QuoteWe the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare,
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:39:15 PM
Quote from: formulanone on July 13, 2020, 02:33:15 PM
Might as well say, "yeah, but lawn dart accidents are zero".

I miss Jarts.  Best game ever for church youth group camping trips.

Quote from: formulanone on July 13, 2020, 02:33:15 PM
Look at like this: chose your favorite passenger vehicle, and load it to capacity. Everyone gets a seat belt. Then, add one more passenger...what's one more, after all? But they don't get a seat nor a seat belt. Chances are, the conveyance departs, goes somewhere, and arrives, with no accidents, and nobody gets hurt. But what happens if there is an accident? Someone is going get hurt or die, with an impact on the health of others.

People should be allowed to make their own decision to buckle up or not.  If I climb into the back of a pickup truck, then let me assume my own risk in doing so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:47:29 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 13, 2020, 02:33:48 PM

Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM

Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.

We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

QuoteWe the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare,


The Preamble to the Constitution is neither (a) a federal law, (b) a clause of the Constitution, nor (c) an Amendment.

Try again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.


Of course there can be.  First of all, the CARES Act was a national response to the economic circumstances of the pandemic.

But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:52:22 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

What is the CDC, if not an entity of the federal government?  The CDC has issued guidance, no?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:54:07 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 13, 2020, 02:33:48 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

QuoteWe the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare,

Again, name the federal law or section of the constitution that allows the president to dictate anything.

I'll help you a bit here with the only section that allows anything in the constitution to be suspended by the federal government:

Article 1, Section 9: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_One_of_the_United_States_Constitution
QuoteThe Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.

Only in those cases, and then, only by Congress (emphasis mine).

Here's Article 2 for your reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_United_States_Constitution
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:54:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:52:22 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

What is the CDC, if not an entity of the federal government?  The CDC has issued guidance, no?

Guidance yes, but they cannot issue mandates.  That's either for Congress or for the individual states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 13, 2020, 02:57:11 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.


Of course there can be.  First of all, the CARES Act was a national response to the economic circumstances of the pandemic.

But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now.

Telling me there is no guidance or funding? No guidance? The CDC literally has thousands of links on their page along about how to handle almost every situation, at our fingertips in an instant. No funding? We're planning on spending an annual budget's worth of money on fighting this. Would you like us to just spend so much that the US dollar just becomes meaningless. Worked great for Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela.

The morals stuff, I don't care, my governor is quite 'moral' and we've got the third worst unemployment in the nation now, all caused by him, and that feels a tad immoral to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 03:03:28 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:54:50 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:52:22 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

What is the CDC, if not an entity of the federal government?  The CDC has issued guidance, no?

Guidance yes, but they cannot issue mandates.  That's either for Congress or for the individual states.

Right, exactly.

It is not within the powers of the federal government to legislate a national mandate in response to a pandemic.

The CDC, an institution of the federal government, has issued guidance.  Therefore it is not lacking.

Congress and the President passed the $300 billion CARES Act.  Therefore funding is not lacking.

Moral thought leadership?  What does that even mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 03:34:03 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:54:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:52:22 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

What is the CDC, if not an entity of the federal government?  The CDC has issued guidance, no?

Guidance yes, but they cannot issue mandates.  That's either for Congress or for the individual states.
Like with drinking age - funding can be dependent on certain provisions. Not sure how that would work in general, though. Mandatory masks if certain conditions are met may be the only reasonable one. A lot of things, especially during early NYC spike, were limited by availability of supplies - for example, testing mandate would be meaningless as there was limited testing capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 13, 2020, 03:38:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:39:15 PM

Quote from: formulanone on July 13, 2020, 02:33:15 PM
Look at like this: chose your favorite passenger vehicle, and load it to capacity. Everyone gets a seat belt. Then, add one more passenger...what's one more, after all? But they don't get a seat nor a seat belt. Chances are, the conveyance departs, goes somewhere, and arrives, with no accidents, and nobody gets hurt. But what happens if there is an accident? Someone is going get hurt or die, with an impact on the health of others.

People should be allowed to make their own decision to buckle up or not.  If I climb into the back of a pickup truck, then let me assume my own risk in doing so.

Are you willing to take the entire financial risk, to absolve insurance companies for paying any of your bills?  And to absolve the rest of us taxpayers from paying SS, SSI or Medicaid for your kids should you be disabled or killed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 13, 2020, 03:50:20 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:39:15 PM
Quote from: formulanone on July 13, 2020, 02:33:15 PM
Look at like this: chose your favorite passenger vehicle, and load it to capacity. Everyone gets a seat belt. Then, add one more passenger...what's one more, after all? But they don't get a seat nor a seat belt. Chances are, the conveyance departs, goes somewhere, and arrives, with no accidents, and nobody gets hurt. But what happens if there is an accident? Someone is going get hurt or die, with an impact on the health of others.

People should be allowed to make their own decision to buckle up or not.  If I climb into the back of a pickup truck, then let me assume my own risk in doing so.

There isn't a single dead person that ever complained about their right not to wear a seatbelt.  The reason why we have those laws now is because their friends and loved ones fought to get it.

In how politics work, the dead person probably fought their own family on wearing a seatbelt.  Now that the dead person ain't there to fight their family, the family can now say that if there was a law, or more stringent penalties, their loved one would be alive today, full well knowing that they would still drive around without that seatbelt on.

BTW, if you decide to sit in the bed of a pickup, that's your doing.  However, the penalty wouldn't be solely against you, it'll be against the driver.  You're simply contributing to the issue.  If you managed to fall out of the truck and someone else hits you, or swerves to miss you and crashes, the penalty will go against the driver.   Also, how much personal insurance do you carry?  Can that other person that crashed trying to miss you go against some personal insurance policy you have?  If you feel you can ride around in a bed of a pickup, it's doubtful you carry some sort of personal insurance policy, so that other person would need to go after the driver's insurance policy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 03:51:20 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 13, 2020, 03:38:32 PM
Are you willing to take the entire financial risk, to absolve insurance companies for paying any of your bills?  And to absolve the rest of us taxpayers from paying SS, SSI or Medicaid for your kids should you be disabled or killed?

Do you only want to know those answers as they relate to seat belts?  What about riding a bicycle without a helmet?  Smoking cigarettes?  Should people be disallowed to engage in those behaviors unless they're willing to take the entire financial risk of all that jazz?  I don't believe so.

But this was only a side response to formulanone's example of seat belt use or mandates being analogous to...  actually, I'm not entirely clear on that point.  I'm unsure how it's supposed to relate to something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 03:54:03 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 13, 2020, 03:50:20 PM
BTW, if you decide to sit in the bed of a pickup, that's your doing.  However, the penalty wouldn't be solely against you, it'll be against the driver.  You're simply contributing to the issue.  If you managed to fall out of the truck and someone else hits you, or swerves to miss you and crashes, the penalty will go against the driver.   Also, how much personal insurance do you carry?  Can that other person that crashed trying to miss you go against some personal insurance policy you have?  If you feel you can ride around in a bed of a pickup, it's doubtful you carry some sort of personal insurance policy, so that other person would need to go after the driver's insurance policy.

Yeah, I knew while I was typing it that other issues were at play when it comes to the bed of a pickup.  Unless it has a topper, that is.

If I, as a driver, want to reduce my liability for a passenger's injury while not buckled up, then I should make them buckle up before riding in my car.  Seems reasonable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 13, 2020, 02:57:11 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.


Of course there can be.  First of all, the CARES Act was a national response to the economic circumstances of the pandemic.

But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now.

Telling me there is no guidance or funding? No guidance? The CDC literally has thousands of links on their page along about how to handle almost every situation, at our fingertips in an instant. No funding? We're planning on spending an annual budget's worth of money on fighting this. Would you like us to just spend so much that the US dollar just becomes meaningless. Worked great for Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela.

The morals stuff, I don't care, my governor is quite 'moral' and we've got the third worst unemployment in the nation now, all caused by him, and that feels a tad immoral to me.


Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

And I never claimed the CDC wasn't issuing guidance.  I was simply stating that was part of the federal response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Of course there can be.  First of all, the CARES Act was a national response to the economic circumstances of the pandemic.

But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
I never claimed the CDC wasn't issuing guidance.

Yes you did.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

If a business that would otherwise have stayed open is forced to close by governor's order, and then the owner lays the employees off, then how can you claim their unemployment wasn't caused by the governor?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:37:13 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Of course there can be.  First of all, the CARES Act was a national response to the economic circumstances of the pandemic.

But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
I never claimed the CDC wasn't issuing guidance.

Yes you did.

I absolutely did not.  If you go back and look at the thread, Brandon says there "will never actually be a national response."  I was pointing out that the CARES Act, funding, and CDC guidance is part of the "national response."


Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

If a business that would otherwise have stayed open is forced to close by governor's order, and then the owner lays the employees off, then how can you claim their unemployment wasn't caused by the governor?

Because the pandemic is forcing the governor to act.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 04:40:08 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:54:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:52:22 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

What is the CDC, if not an entity of the federal government?  The CDC has issued guidance, no?

Guidance yes, but they cannot issue mandates.  That's either for Congress or for the individual states.

So, the federal government has the authority to take a much more active role in this than they have been. A lot of that authority comes on account of interstate commerce - they could, for example, demand passengers be tested before they're allowed to board airplanes (and I'd say this would be an entirely prudent thing to do). But they haven't, and states don't have the authority to do this, which hampers their ability to fight case importation or forces them to take more draconian measures such as mandatory quarantines instead.

The feds also decided to pull funding for testing, which makes absolutely no sense under the circumstances.
This also ties into something else the feds could and should be doing but aren't: providing cash infusions to the general funds of state and local governments in order to make up for tax revenue shortfalls. State and local governments can't run deficits, so they're under fiscal pressure to get businesses to reopen regardless of whether it is advisable to do so (see for example the debacle with Disney World). This pressure could be relieved if the feds (who can run deficits) chipped in to help out, but they won't, because the current administration likes that there is that pressure to reopen and wants to maintain it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:43:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:37:13 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Of course there can be.  First of all, the CARES Act was a national response to the economic circumstances of the pandemic.

But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
I never claimed the CDC wasn't issuing guidance.

Yes you did.

I absolutely did not.  If you go back and look at the thread, Brandon says there "will never actually be a national response."  I was pointing out that the CARES Act, funding, and CDC guidance is part of the "national response."

I read the plain text on the screen, as highlighted in bold.  You said guidance from the federal government is lacking.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:37:13 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

If a business that would otherwise have stayed open is forced to close by governor's order, and then the owner lays the employees off, then how can you claim their unemployment wasn't caused by the governor?

Because the pandemic is forcing the governor to act.   

That claim cannot be made if another state's governor did not order the same type of business to be shut down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:45:10 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 04:40:08 PM
So, the federal government has the authority to take a much more active role in this than they have been. A lot of that authority comes on account of interstate commerce - they could, for example, demand passengers be tested before they're allowed to board airplanes (and I'd say this would be an entirely prudent thing to do). But they haven't, and states don't have the authority to do this, which hampers their ability to fight case importation or forces them to take more draconian measures such as mandatory quarantines instead.

How would that work, absent kits that return instant results?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:55:59 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:43:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:37:13 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 02:47:49 PM
Of course there can be.  First of all, the CARES Act was a national response to the economic circumstances of the pandemic.

But anyway, yes, the federal government cannot mandate business closings, etc.  But it can certainly issue guidance, funding and moral thought leadership to how we approach this.  All of that is lacking right now. 

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
I never claimed the CDC wasn't issuing guidance.

Yes you did.

I absolutely did not.  If you go back and look at the thread, Brandon says there "will never actually be a national response."  I was pointing out that the CARES Act, funding, and CDC guidance is part of the "national response."

I read the plain text on the screen, as highlighted in bold.  You said guidance from the federal government is lacking.

One of the definitions of "lacking" is "deficient" or not having enough of something.  For instance, "I find your posts lacking in substance."



Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:43:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:37:13 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

If a business that would otherwise have stayed open is forced to close by governor's order, and then the owner lays the employees off, then how can you claim their unemployment wasn't caused by the governor?

Because the pandemic is forcing the governor to act.   

That claim cannot be made if another state's governor did not order the same type of business to be shut down.

Of course it can.  I just made it.  And really you can't prove my assertion wrong because you have no idea what the situation would be like without those orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: paulthemapguy on July 13, 2020, 04:57:16 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:23:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Yeah, 'cause that would have been effective.   :rolleyes:

It would have been effective if we had an effective federal government, like say, New Zealand or Australia, which have no new cases and very few new cases to report, respectively.  More new cases have popped up in the U.S. in July, than Australia has EVER HAD.

Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.
Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

Do you or the president need to consult the Constitution every time you take a dump, to see if there's a provision in there that will allow you to do it?  The act of deferring to an archaic document in a frantic search for a moral code to compensate for your lack of one, isn't going to help when the creators of that document had no way of even conceiving of the problem you're trying to solve.  You aren't going to be able to rely on precedent to grapple with the unprecedented.  We needed leadership, and leadership on the federal level is much too interested in undermining the law and subverting our governmental system for the personal gain of plutocrats, to even try and help the American people in a national and global crisis.  This is what happens when you vote based on your hatred of the other, instead of voting based on consideration for the life or death of yourself and others. 

In strange times, we need leadership that's able to think on their feet.  The Constitution wasn't going to help us.  We needed new legislation and new mandates, and the people in charge of those mandates needed to consult with scientific experts and state and federal officials concerning disease control and prevention.

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

If a business that would otherwise have stayed open is forced to close by governor's order, and then the owner lays the employees off, then how can you claim their unemployment wasn't caused by the governor?

The way I'd express the situation is that "the unemployment was a result of a response to the pandemic imposed by the governor." That's how I looked at it in the early stages, anyway.  At this point, the unemployment could have been eradicated if we had an effective enough response to containing the virus, and we had a population that wasn't brainwashed into downplaying the reality and urgency of the situation.  Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are much closer to all going back to work, if they're not there already.  The failure to address coronavirus on the state or federal level (I live in a state that DID address it and impose rigorous enough restrictions) is now what we can look at as the reason we can't get back to normal.  Furthermore, mass unemployment caused by a governor is a small blemish on such a governor's résumé, compared to mass death caused by a governor.  The act of simply saying "governor causes job loss" ignores context and is intellectually dishonest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 05:25:50 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:55:59 PM
One of the definitions of "lacking" is "deficient" or not having enough of something.  For instance, "I find your posts lacking in substance."

Ah.  Gotcha.  Misunderstanding.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:55:59 PM
Of course it can.  I just made it.  And really you can't prove my assertion wrong.

I find your post lacking in logical soundness.

Premises

1.  COVID-19 exists in the state.
2.  The governor closed golf courses during COVID-19 in the state.
3.  Only closed golf courses lay off employees.

4.  COVID-19 exists in Illinois.
5.  The Illinois governor closed golf courses during COVID-19.

6.  COVID-19 exists in Iowa.
7.  The Iowa governor did not close golf courses during COVID-19.

8.  Golf course employees are laid off.

1 & 2 & 3 → 8
1 & ¬2 & 3 → ¬8

Illinois
4 → 1
5 → 2
3
8

Iowa
6 → 1
7 → ¬2
3
¬8
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 13, 2020, 05:26:51 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 13, 2020, 02:33:48 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

QuoteWe the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare,
The Preamble is a statement of purpose, not an actual law.
The Constitution only instructs the Federal government to ensure the States are given a Republic form of government and defended by enemies in times of war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 13, 2020, 05:31:56 PM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on July 13, 2020, 04:57:16 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:23:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Yeah, 'cause that would have been effective.   :rolleyes:

It would have been effective if we had an effective federal government, like say, New Zealand or Australia, which have no new cases and very few new cases to report, respectively.  More new cases have popped up in the U.S. in July, than Australia has EVER HAD.

Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.
Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

Do you or the president need to consult the Constitution every time you take a dump, to see if there's a provision in there that will allow you to do it?  The act of deferring to an archaic document in a frantic search for a moral code to compensate for your lack of one, isn't going to help when the creators of that document had no way of even conceiving of the problem you're trying to solve.  You aren't going to be able to rely on precedent to grapple with the unprecedented.  We needed leadership, and leadership on the federal level is much too interested in undermining the law and subverting our governmental system for the personal gain of plutocrats, to even try and help the American people in a national and global crisis.  This is what happens when you vote based on your hatred of the other, instead of voting based on consideration for the life or death of yourself and others. 

In strange times, we need leadership that's able to think on their feet.  The Constitution wasn't going to help us.  We needed new legislation and new mandates, and the people in charge of those mandates needed to consult with scientific experts and state and federal officials concerning disease control and prevention.

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:19:13 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

If a business that would otherwise have stayed open is forced to close by governor's order, and then the owner lays the employees off, then how can you claim their unemployment wasn't caused by the governor?

The way I'd express the situation is that "the unemployment was a result of a response to the pandemic imposed by the governor." That's how I looked at it in the early stages, anyway.  At this point, the unemployment could have been eradicated if we had an effective enough response to containing the virus, and we had a population that wasn't brainwashed into downplaying the reality and urgency of the situation.  Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are much closer to all going back to work, if they're not there already.  The failure to address coronavirus on the state or federal level (I live in a state that DID address it and impose rigorous enough restrictions) is now what we can look at as the reason we can't get back to normal.  Furthermore, mass unemployment caused by a governor is a small blemish on such a governor's résumé, compared to mass death caused by a governor.  The act of simply saying "governor causes job loss" ignores context and is intellectually dishonest.
Don't go lumping in the whole of the US's response with that of Australia or New Zealand. For the enth time, LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL STATES. No other country gives such broad autonomy to geographical regions than does the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 13, 2020, 05:33:52 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.

We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

Spending Clause. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxing_and_Spending_Clause)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on July 13, 2020, 06:25:06 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 03:51:20 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 13, 2020, 03:38:32 PM
Are you willing to take the entire financial risk, to absolve insurance companies for paying any of your bills?  And to absolve the rest of us taxpayers from paying SS, SSI or Medicaid for your kids should you be disabled or killed?

Do you only want to know those answers as they relate to seat belts?  What about riding a bicycle without a helmet?  Smoking cigarettes?  Should people be disallowed to engage in those behaviors unless they're willing to take the entire financial risk of all that jazz?  I don't believe so.

But this was only a side response to formulanone's example of seat belt use or mandates being analogous to...  actually, I'm not entirely clear on that point.  I'm unsure how it's supposed to relate to something.

To explain again a bit more succinctly: lots of things can kill people, we have ways to stop/cure/defend most of them. Add another that has no cure...that was my analogy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on July 13, 2020, 07:34:41 PM
Has there been any pushback outside the U.S. against the lockdown all these months?  I haven't heard or read of such.

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Takumi on July 13, 2020, 07:40:29 PM
^ I've seen some anti-lockdown protests reported in a few European countries, but they were nowhere nearly as widespread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NE2 on July 13, 2020, 08:07:32 PM
Quote from: ixnay on July 13, 2020, 07:34:41 PM
Has there been any pushback outside the U.S. against the lockdown all these months?  I haven't heard or read of such.

ixnay
The Brazilian Trump joined a such a protest back in April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 13, 2020, 08:18:56 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 05:25:50 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:55:59 PM
One of the definitions of "lacking" is "deficient" or not having enough of something.  For instance, "I find your posts lacking in substance."

Ah.  Gotcha.  Misunderstanding.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:55:59 PM
Of course it can.  I just made it.  And really you can't prove my assertion wrong.

I find your post lacking in logical soundness.

Premises

1.  COVID-19 exists in the state.
2.  The governor closed golf courses during COVID-19 in the state.
3.  Only closed golf courses lay off employees.

4.  COVID-19 exists in Illinois.
5.  The Illinois governor closed golf courses during COVID-19.

6.  COVID-19 exists in Iowa.
7.  The Iowa governor did not close golf courses during COVID-19.

8.  Golf course employees are laid off.

1 & 2 & 3 → 8
1 & ¬2 & 3 → ¬8

Illinois
4 → 1
5 → 2
3
8

Iowa
6 → 1
7 → ¬2
3
¬8

I would dispute premise #3 here. While I admit little experience with golf courses specifically, I'm fully aware that in general companies lay off workers all the time without necessarily closing outright.

I also dispute the bolded assertion, unless you're asking me to assume that golf courses can be closed only by gubernatorial edict and not for any other reason (such as, say, a demand crash on account of a pandemic making people scared to leave their homes).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 08:44:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:45:10 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 04:40:08 PM
So, the federal government has the authority to take a much more active role in this than they have been. A lot of that authority comes on account of interstate commerce - they could, for example, demand passengers be tested before they're allowed to board airplanes (and I'd say this would be an entirely prudent thing to do). But they haven't, and states don't have the authority to do this, which hampers their ability to fight case importation or forces them to take more draconian measures such as mandatory quarantines instead.

How would that work, absent kits that return instant results?

Well that's exactly how it would work. Quick tests already exist that can produce results in 15 minutes. Not instant, but fast enough to make it part of the process of clearing security at the airport.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 13, 2020, 08:47:41 PM
Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 13, 2020, 05:26:51 PM
QuoteWe the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare,
The Preamble is a statement of purpose, not an actual law.

More precisely, the Preamble states what the Founders hoped adoption of the Constitution would do. It does not grant any power or responsibility, over and above what is done in the specific provisions of Articles I-VII and later constitutional amendments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 08:44:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:45:10 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 04:40:08 PM
So, the federal government has the authority to take a much more active role in this than they have been. A lot of that authority comes on account of interstate commerce - they could, for example, demand passengers be tested before they're allowed to board airplanes (and I'd say this would be an entirely prudent thing to do). But they haven't, and states don't have the authority to do this, which hampers their ability to fight case importation or forces them to take more draconian measures such as mandatory quarantines instead.

How would that work, absent kits that return instant results?

Well that's exactly how it would work. Quick tests already exist that can produce results in 15 minutes. Not instant, but fast enough to make it part of the process of clearing security at the airport.
15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 13, 2020, 09:13:14 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 02:23:46 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Yeah, 'cause that would have been effective.   :rolleyes:

That also assumes that the national government is more functional and competent than the states (this is not a partisan comment, the U.S. plainly has had a string of bad Presidents lately, though people might differ on which ones they were). WRT the current crisis, the CDC's initial botch of test kits was not a good start, and highlighted the need for states to try to do better than the Feds. This issue has come up WRT other kinds of disasters, such as with some Gulf Coast states preferring to depend primarily on their own resources for hurricane response, rather than on FEMA (whose "performance" in Hurricane Katrina should also give pause to those who want national responses).

Having states take the lead also is a safeguard against "least common denominator" solutions. As much as Gov. Cuomo was initially harping on the need for a uniform pandemic response, he was fantasizing if he really thought a national response would've even come close to meeting New York's specific needs, rather than accommodating the states that ultimately never even adopted statewide stay-at-home orders. I'm sure he's now glad he was not stuck with uniform mediocrity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on July 13, 2020, 09:16:29 PM
My city council is currently voting on a mandatory mask order. Some nearby cities such as Joplin and Fayetteville have passed similar resolutions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
For the record, here's Florida's Covid-19 dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
https://open-fdoh.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/florida-covid19-case-line-data
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 10:18:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 08:44:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:45:10 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 04:40:08 PM
So, the federal government has the authority to take a much more active role in this than they have been. A lot of that authority comes on account of interstate commerce - they could, for example, demand passengers be tested before they're allowed to board airplanes (and I'd say this would be an entirely prudent thing to do). But they haven't, and states don't have the authority to do this, which hampers their ability to fight case importation or forces them to take more draconian measures such as mandatory quarantines instead.

How would that work, absent kits that return instant results?

Well that's exactly how it would work. Quick tests already exist that can produce results in 15 minutes. Not instant, but fast enough to make it part of the process of clearing security at the airport.
15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?
I mean airport security lines are already so long, so what is 15 more minutes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 13, 2020, 10:27:28 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 10:18:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 08:44:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:45:10 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 04:40:08 PM
So, the federal government has the authority to take a much more active role in this than they have been. A lot of that authority comes on account of interstate commerce - they could, for example, demand passengers be tested before they're allowed to board airplanes (and I'd say this would be an entirely prudent thing to do). But they haven't, and states don't have the authority to do this, which hampers their ability to fight case importation or forces them to take more draconian measures such as mandatory quarantines instead.

How would that work, absent kits that return instant results?

Well that's exactly how it would work. Quick tests already exist that can produce results in 15 minutes. Not instant, but fast enough to make it part of the process of clearing security at the airport.
15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?
I mean airport security lines are already so long, so what is 15 more minutes?

A lot of people already show up to the airport with barely enough time to make it through standard TSA checkpoints as is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on July 13, 2020, 10:28:38 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?

Pool testing. You don't have to test 100+ people individually. Divide the entire plane into groups of people and combine their tests. If a batch comes up negative, that group is cleared. The batch that came up positive can be further divided and tested to find who is actually positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Tonytone on July 13, 2020, 11:08:32 PM
Wear a mask, stop the spread.

Can we all just get this shit over with. We were doing good & we all got too comfortable & ahead of ourselves.


iPhone
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 14, 2020, 01:05:18 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on July 13, 2020, 11:08:32 PM
Wear a mask, stop the spread.

Can we all just get this shit over with. We were doing good & we all got too comfortable & ahead of ourselves.


iPhone
I wear a mask unless I'm alone outside with nobody around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 08:18:13 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 14, 2020, 01:05:18 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on July 13, 2020, 11:08:32 PM
Wear a mask, stop the spread.

Can we all just get this shit over with. We were doing good & we all got too comfortable & ahead of ourselves.


iPhone
I wear a mask unless I'm alone outside with nobody around.
Must be tough taking a shower in a mask...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 14, 2020, 08:26:36 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 03:54:03 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 13, 2020, 03:50:20 PM
BTW, if you decide to sit in the bed of a pickup, that's your doing.  However, the penalty wouldn't be solely against you, it'll be against the driver.  You're simply contributing to the issue.  If you managed to fall out of the truck and someone else hits you, or swerves to miss you and crashes, the penalty will go against the driver.   Also, how much personal insurance do you carry?  Can that other person that crashed trying to miss you go against some personal insurance policy you have?  If you feel you can ride around in a bed of a pickup, it's doubtful you carry some sort of personal insurance policy, so that other person would need to go after the driver's insurance policy.

Yeah, I knew while I was typing it that other issues were at play when it comes to the bed of a pickup.  Unless it has a topper, that is.

If I, as a driver, want to reduce my liability for a passenger's injury while not buckled up, then I should make them buckle up before riding in my car.  Seems reasonable.

Which is exactly what stores are doing when they enforce mask requirements - mitigating their risk that someone catches it in their store.  Not saying it can't happen with a mask, just saying that it is much less likely.

Only to have a potential shopper pull a knife on someone who is trying to enforce the requirement (Meijer in Acme, near Traverse City) or kill a security guard (a dollar store in Flint).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 14, 2020, 08:36:32 AM
Quote from: ixnay on July 13, 2020, 07:34:41 PM
Has there been any pushback outside the U.S. against the lockdown all these months?  I haven't heard or read of such.

ixnay


Not really and for two reasons.  One, is that they trust their governments a lot more when it comes to how to handle this.  Two, they have done a better job at protecting the small businesses, paychecks, etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 14, 2020, 08:58:43 AM
Quote from: Tonytone on July 13, 2020, 11:08:32 PM
Wear a mask, stop the spread.

Can we all just get this shit over with. We were doing good & we all got too comfortable & ahead of ourselves.


iPhone

I want to agree, but then say look at California right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 14, 2020, 11:22:19 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 13, 2020, 10:27:28 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 10:18:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?
I mean airport security lines are already so long, so what is 15 more minutes?
A lot of people already show up to the airport with barely enough time to make it through standard TSA checkpoints as is.

I can't remember the last time I waited 15 minutes in the security line, but it was definitely before I had TSA pre-check. I get annoyed by anything more than 5 minutes, much less 15.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 12:53:31 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.
Whatever responce is, it is driven by the same ultimate goal - minimizing negative effects  through various (conflicting) approaches due to differences in risk asessment. And unemployment is definitely a good figure of merit  - one of many.
And it is fair to say that risk asessment will be differen between NYC area, population 20 million -  and Middle of Nowhere ND, population 20.

Only time will tell who got it better - pretty possible that NY is overreacting, and it is equally possible that SD will regret... My crystal ball is out of comission at the moment. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 14, 2020, 01:07:16 PM
Our system of government--a minimal Federal government with the bulk of the governing decentralized to the states, has had enormous advantages that have created the kind of scientific achievement and wealth that we enjoy.

However, the same system of government has enormous drawbacks when it comes to dealing with nationwide problems like poverty or health care, and we are seeing the fruits of that right now.

We have a culture that is hard-wired in absolutes, and can't deal with the reality that the most effective government needs to be more centralized and more socialist at certain times and in certain areas, and less centralized and less socialist in others. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that accepting government orders to stay home and wear masks in 2020 doesn't mean that we are more at risk of having to accept government orders to give up the rights to free speech or bear arms in 2025. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that the government helping out other people in times of need doesn't necessarily make out lives any worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 14, 2020, 01:17:30 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.

So then what about the numerous businesses that haven't returned to full operation despite being legally allowed to do so in their states? I suppose we'll never know what could be causing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 13, 2020, 08:18:56 PM
I would dispute premise #3 here. While I admit little experience with golf courses specifically, I'm fully aware that in general companies lay off workers all the time without necessarily closing outright.

I also dispute the bolded assertion, unless you're asking me to assume that golf courses can be closed only by gubernatorial edict and not for any other reason (such as, say, a demand crash on account of a pandemic making people scared to leave their homes).

Yes, I realized that Premise 3 could be easily disputed, but I didn't realize it until I was already driving home for the evening.  It would be more accurate to say "closed golf courses lay off more people than open ones".

As for the demand crash:  demand actually went up, at least before Iowa restricted access to exclude out-of-state golfers.  I didn't read any demand comparison for after that restriction, however.




Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 10:18:06 PM

Quote from: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM

Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 08:44:55 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 13, 2020, 04:45:10 PM

Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 04:40:08 PM
So, the federal government has the authority to take a much more active role in this than they have been. A lot of that authority comes on account of interstate commerce - they could, for example, demand passengers be tested before they're allowed to board airplanes (and I'd say this would be an entirely prudent thing to do). But they haven't, and states don't have the authority to do this, which hampers their ability to fight case importation or forces them to take more draconian measures such as mandatory quarantines instead.

How would that work, absent kits that return instant results?

Well that's exactly how it would work. Quick tests already exist that can produce results in 15 minutes. Not instant, but fast enough to make it part of the process of clearing security at the airport.

15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?

I mean airport security lines are already so long, so what is 15 more minutes?

15 extra minutes per TSA clearance does not yield an extra 15 minutes for every passenger.  If there are eight people in line in front of you, and each one takes an extra 15 minutes to clear TSA, then you don't get to the front of the line for another two hours.




Quote from: GaryV on July 14, 2020, 08:26:36 AM
Which is exactly what stores are doing when they enforce mask requirements - mitigating their risk that someone catches it in their store.  Not saying it can't happen with a mask, just saying that it is much less likely.

I have yet to see a store actually enforce a mask requirement.  For example, my parents and I went to Chili's on Saturday, and a party of about six people came in and not one of them was wearing a mask.  Even though the restaurant is required by ordinance to require all guests to wear masks, restaurant staff did not bar their entry.  Rather, they promptly seated their six paying guests in a booth and took their order.  And I haven't been in a single grocery store or home improvement store in the past week where every single customer was wearing a mask, yet I also haven't seen the staff kicking anybody out.




Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 01:07:16 PM
Our system of government--a minimal Federal government with the bulk of the governing decentralized to the states, has had enormous advantages that have created the kind of scientific achievement and wealth that we enjoy.

However, the same system of government has enormous drawbacks when it comes to dealing with nationwide problems like poverty or health care, and we are seeing the fruits of that right now.

We have a culture that is hard-wired in absolutes, and can't deal with the reality that the most effective government needs to be more centralized and more socialist at certain times and in certain areas, and less centralized and less socialist in others. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that accepting government orders to stay home and wear masks in 2020 doesn't mean that we are more at risk of having to accept government orders to give up the rights to free speech or bear arms in 2025. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that the government helping out other people in times of need doesn't necessarily make out lives any worse.

If you see a failure in the response to COVID in the USA, then why do you not blame the individual states?  If, say, you think Wyoming's response has been inadequate, then why do you pin the blame on a weak federal government rather than blaming the existing, more able state government?  In fact, I think that a stronger federal government, composed of representatives from individual states and districts, would be even less able to actually pass stronger legislation–because attempts to do so would be blocked by representatives who oppose it.  As it is, at least some states maintain the ability to move swiftly and decisively, even if other states simultaneously maintain the ability to not do so.

I agree that our citizens deal in absolutes.  This is what has been so disheartening to me about businesses opening back up.  People seem to think that now they can throw all caution to the wind.  Proceed with caution doesn't seem to be a concept that Americans understand very well.




Quote from: Eth on July 14, 2020, 01:17:30 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.

So then what about the numerous businesses that haven't returned to full operation despite being legally allowed to do so in their states? I suppose we'll never know what could be causing that.

Some businesses would have closed regardless, and indeed some aren't opening yet even though they're allowed to.  But other businesses would have remained open if not forced to shut down, and indeed some of them are no longer financially solvent, have laid off their employees, and have even sold their property.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 14, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
State responses don't seem to have that much of a difference. AZ and CA started increasing at about the same time despite being opposite political parties. (AZ went up faster, but only because more people were inside, as Phoenix gets really hot.) TX and FL are getting big news, but the states in between are having just as much of a problem. (TN isn't, and I have no idea why.) VT, NH, and ME are doing as well as MA, RI, CT, downstate NY, and NJ currently despite never getting the first wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 14, 2020, 01:34:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 01:07:16 PM
Our system of government--a minimal Federal government with the bulk of the governing decentralized to the states, has had enormous advantages that have created the kind of scientific achievement and wealth that we enjoy.

However, the same system of government has enormous drawbacks when it comes to dealing with nationwide problems like poverty or health care, and we are seeing the fruits of that right now.

We have a culture that is hard-wired in absolutes, and can't deal with the reality that the most effective government needs to be more centralized and more socialist at certain times and in certain areas, and less centralized and less socialist in others. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that accepting government orders to stay home and wear masks in 2020 doesn't mean that we are more at risk of having to accept government orders to give up the rights to free speech or bear arms in 2025. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that the government helping out other people in times of need doesn't necessarily make out lives any worse.

If you see a failure in the response to COVID in the USA, then why do you not blame the individual states?  If, say, you think Wyoming's response has been inadequate, then why do you pin the blame on a weak federal government rather than blaming the existing, more able state government?  In fact, I think that a stronger federal government, composed of representatives from individual states and districts, would be even less able to actually pass stronger legislation–because attempts to do so would be blocked by representatives who oppose it.  As it is, at least some states maintain the ability to move swiftly and decisively, even if other states simultaneously maintain the ability to not do so.

I agree that our citizens deal in absolutes.  This is what has been so disheartening to me about businesses opening back up.  People seem to think that now they can throw all caution to the wind.  Proceed with caution doesn't seem to be a concept that Americans understand very well.



This pandemic has been the exact poster child for why 50 individual state responses don't work in a situation like this. All it takes is one state to take a different approach and that sets off all the people in the other states complaining that their state is doing it wrong and then we end up with what we had. 

We needed a single, clear, national plan to deal with this. We didn't have it, partially because of our absolutism and partially because decisions were being made for political rather than public health reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 14, 2020, 01:48:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.


"The terrorists didn't cause the Twin Towers to collapse.  Gravity did."

Honestly anyone who advocates for letting "people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open" in places where this is running amok, you need to open your eyes.  The problem will never be solved.  Too many people like you minimizing the issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 14, 2020, 02:05:37 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
State responses don't seem to have that much of a difference. AZ and CA started increasing at about the same time despite being opposite political parties. (AZ went up faster, but only because more people were inside, as Phoenix gets really hot.) TX and FL are getting big news, but the states in between are having just as much of a problem. (TN isn't, and I have no idea why.) VT, NH, and ME are doing as well as MA, RI, CT, downstate NY, and NJ currently despite never getting the first wave.
VT, NH, and ME are isolated by NY and MA so maybe people didn't travel to them as much. Also state response could have been good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on July 14, 2020, 02:14:37 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 14, 2020, 08:58:43 AM
I want to agree, but then say look at California right now.
I recall reading that a lot of California cases are tied to travel from Mexico.  That border is still open for some reason.

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PM
I have yet to see a store actually enforce a mask requirement.  For example, my parents and I went to Chili's on Saturday, and a party of about six people came in and not one of them was wearing a mask.  Even though the restaurant is required by ordinance to require all guests to wear masks, restaurant staff did not bar their entry.  Rather, they promptly seated their six paying guests in a booth and took their order.  And I haven't been in a single grocery store or home improvement store in the past week where every single customer was wearing a mask, yet I also haven't seen the staff kicking anybody out.
It actually does happen in New York, to the point that seeing people in stores without masks is really weird now.

Quote
If you see a failure in the response to COVID in the USA, then why do you not blame the individual states?  If, say, you think Wyoming's response has been inadequate, then why do you pin the blame on a weak federal government rather than blaming the existing, more able state government?  In fact, I think that a stronger federal government, composed of representatives from individual states and districts, would be even less able to actually pass stronger legislation–because attempts to do so would be blocked by representatives who oppose it.  As it is, at least some states maintain the ability to move swiftly and decisively, even if other states simultaneously maintain the ability to not do so.
I don't know of anywhere that has addressed the pandemic with legislation, beyond a bill passing all control to the executive (as was done in NY and Canada).  In any case, you're going to have the "people traveling from locked-down jurisdiction with lots of community spread to places with fewer restrictions" problem anywhere that has a non-uniform response with border controls, and we've all seen how problematic that can be.  Even Italy had that problem - news of the lockdown for Lombardy leaked early before it went into effect, causing a bunch of people to flee and spread the virus to the rest of the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 02:35:49 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 01:34:39 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 01:07:16 PM
Our system of government--a minimal Federal government with the bulk of the governing decentralized to the states, has had enormous advantages that have created the kind of scientific achievement and wealth that we enjoy.

However, the same system of government has enormous drawbacks when it comes to dealing with nationwide problems like poverty or health care, and we are seeing the fruits of that right now.

We have a culture that is hard-wired in absolutes, and can't deal with the reality that the most effective government needs to be more centralized and more socialist at certain times and in certain areas, and less centralized and less socialist in others. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that accepting government orders to stay home and wear masks in 2020 doesn't mean that we are more at risk of having to accept government orders to give up the rights to free speech or bear arms in 2025. We aren't programmed to deal with the reality that the government helping out other people in times of need doesn't necessarily make out lives any worse.

If you see a failure in the response to COVID in the USA, then why do you not blame the individual states?  If, say, you think Wyoming's response has been inadequate, then why do you pin the blame on a weak federal government rather than blaming the existing, more able state government?  In fact, I think that a stronger federal government, composed of representatives from individual states and districts, would be even less able to actually pass stronger legislation–because attempts to do so would be blocked by representatives who oppose it.  As it is, at least some states maintain the ability to move swiftly and decisively, even if other states simultaneously maintain the ability to not do so.

I agree that our citizens deal in absolutes.  This is what has been so disheartening to me about businesses opening back up.  People seem to think that now they can throw all caution to the wind.  Proceed with caution doesn't seem to be a concept that Americans understand very well.

This pandemic has been the exact poster child for why 50 individual state responses don't work in a situation like this. All it takes is one state to take a different approach and that sets off all the people in the other states complaining that their state is doing it wrong and then we end up with what we had. 

We needed a single, clear, national plan to deal with this. We didn't have it, partially because of our absolutism and partially because decisions were being made for political rather than public health reasons.

I still think that any national response would end up being much weaker than what many individual states ended up doing.  What would end up passing would be the maximum that a majority of representatives could agree to.  If you think that most states didn't do enough, then why would you think those states' representatives in Congress would agree to do more nationwide?

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 14, 2020, 01:48:47 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.

"The terrorists didn't cause the Twin Towers to collapse.  Gravity did."

The virus wasn't responsible for 100% of the closures/unemployment, and state/county/local orders weren't responsible for 100% of the closures/unemployment either.  Some people would still be laid off, and some businesses would have closed, even without government intervention.  However, some other out-of-work people would still have jobs, and some out-of-business establishments would still be open, if it weren't for government intervention.  It's not an either-or issue.  It's a both-and issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 14, 2020, 02:38:07 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
TX and FL are getting big news, but the states in between are having just as much of a problem. (TN isn't, and I have no idea why.)

Climate is more bearable for spending time outdoors, and fewer people traveling there on summer vacation?



Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
VT, NH, and ME are doing as well as MA, RI, CT, downstate NY, and NJ currently despite never getting the first wave.

Is Upstate NY not doing as well? I thought we were, but haven't dug into the data recently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 14, 2020, 02:41:23 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 14, 2020, 02:38:07 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2020, 01:31:32 PM
VT, NH, and ME are doing as well as MA, RI, CT, downstate NY, and NJ currently despite never getting the first wave.

Is Upstate NY not doing as well? I thought we were, but haven't dug into the data recently.

Upstate NY is about halfway between the states mentioned above (which are constant) and the states south and west of New York ranging from MD to MN (which are increasing significantly, but not at Deep South levels).

Looking at the numbers again, upstate NY can be included with the states mentioned above. However, unlike a few of the above states, there's no possibility that it's decreasing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 03:04:27 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 12:53:31 PMOnly time will tell who got it better - pretty possible that NY is overreacting, and it is equally possible that SD will regret... My crystal ball is out of comission at the moment.

Mine is clear on a couple of aspects.

*  The worm will turn.  Right now we are a mess because cases are on an exponential trend in moderate- to large-population states like Arizona, Florida, and Texas, but countries that have successfully implemented a containment strategy (like New Zealand, Singapore, China, etc.) have a tiger by the tail, since any momentary lapse in disease surveillance can develop very quickly into a large outbreak.

*  This pandemic represents a major blow to US soft power, since the dismantling of the overseas medical liaison system is now and will increasingly be seen as an unforced error.  The issue is not that China lied about covid-19 to save face:  the issue is rather that we knew they might do so, because we had experience with their having done it in the past (notably with SARS in 2003), yet we went ahead and stopped funding our own eyes on the situation.  This tells our allies, some of whom were relying on the umbrella provided by our medical liaisons, that the US cannot be trusted to look after their interests even when it is in the US' own selfish interest to do so.  In fact, I think the situation is likely to be even worse--there is bound to be deep and lasting resentment in allied countries at US inaction poisoning their own pandemic responses.

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PMI have yet to see a store actually enforce a mask requirement.  For example, my parents and I went to Chili's on Saturday, and a party of about six people came in and not one of them was wearing a mask.  Even though the restaurant is required by ordinance to require all guests to wear masks, restaurant staff did not bar their entry.  Rather, they promptly seated their six paying guests in a booth and took their order.  And I haven't been in a single grocery store or home improvement store in the past week where every single customer was wearing a mask, yet I also haven't seen the staff kicking anybody out.

The justification for having a compulsory mask order, even if it is not actively enforced, is that compliance will be better at the margin simply because people will want not to be told off for failing to follow the rules.

I usually do the weekly grocery shopping on Saturday afternoon.  The week before Wichita's mask ordinance went into effect, all of the staff at the Dillons near me (13th and West) were wearing masks, but only about half the customers were.  The following week, when the ordinance had been in force for about 36 hours, I saw no-one not wearing a mask.  Last Saturday, I saw just two not wearing masks:  one was a black woman who was wearing a face shield instead, and the other was a gray-haired white man (late middle age) who was pretty obviously spoiling for a fight, with a dour and truculent expression on his face.

Mind you, Wichita does have sharp cleavages--not just the classic east-west divide, but also north-south.

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PMIf you see a failure in the response to COVID in the USA, then why do you not blame the individual states?  If, say, you think Wyoming's response has been inadequate, then why do you pin the blame on a weak federal government rather than blaming the existing, more able state government?  In fact, I think that a stronger federal government, composed of representatives from individual states and districts, would be even less able to actually pass stronger legislation–because attempts to do so would be blocked by representatives who oppose it.

There is no shortage of blame to go around.  However, timing is critical in containing a fast-spreading pandemic like covid-19, and most of the machinery for taking early and rapid action (especially for a pandemic that originates in another country) is within the hands of the federal government.  There were actually well-elaborated pandemic response plans at the federal level that took into account the different scopes of responsibility of the feds, the states, the territories, and the tribal governments, but no-one pushed the buttons to set them in train until it was too late.

I also disagree that the efficacy or otherwise of a federal response is solely a function of legislative action.  Some of the deficiencies of the federal response, not just the initial complacency but also the decision to reserve the medical-supplies stockpile for "federal purposes" rather than to use it as a load-balancing tool to relieve the stress on hard-hit states, resulted from decisions made entirely within the executive branch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 03:14:15 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 03:04:27 PM
I usually do the weekly grocery shopping on Saturday afternoon.  The week before Wichita's mask ordinance went into effect, all of the staff at the Dillons near me (13th and West) were wearing masks, but only about half the customers were.  The following week, when the ordinance had been in force for about 36 hours, I saw no-one not wearing a mask.  Last Saturday, I saw just two not wearing masks:  one was a black woman who was wearing a face shield instead, and the other was a gray-haired white man (late middle age) who was pretty obviously spoiling for a fight, with a dour and truculent expression on his face.

Mind you, Wichita does have sharp cleavages--not just the classic east-west divide, but also north-south.

Oh, it's more local than even that.  It's from store to store.

At the Central/Rock Dillon's, I only saw three people not wearing a mask last Saturday morning, and two of those were a man-woman couple.  That's a very small percentage, considering how many people shop there.

But, at the Harry/Edgemoor Dillon's just three days earlier, I estimate that 1 in 6 shoppers wasn't wearing one.

Yesterday afternoon, probably only 50-60% of the shoppers at Lowe's (29th/Maize) wore masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 14, 2020, 03:21:29 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 03:04:27 PM
Last Saturday, I saw just two not wearing masks:  one was a black woman who was wearing a face shield instead, and the other was a gray-haired white man (late middle age) ...

Which leads to an interesting question: Is a face shield an acceptable substitute for a mask?

I'm curious for reasons I won't get into here, but I did use a face shield instead of a mask a few times earlier in the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 03:26:30 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 14, 2020, 03:21:29 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 03:04:27 PM
Last Saturday, I saw just two not wearing masks:  one was a black woman who was wearing a face shield instead, and the other was a gray-haired white man (late middle age) ...

Which leads to an interesting question: Is a face shield an acceptable substitute for a mask?

I'm curious for reasons I won't get into here, but I did use a face shield instead of a mask a few times earlier in the pandemic.

I haven't done extensive reading, but the impression I get is that face shields are effective at preventing a disease you're carrying from infecting others, but only moderately effective at preventing you from catching some else's contagion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 03:04:27 PM

*  This pandemic represents a major blow to US soft power, since the dismantling of the overseas medical liaison system is now and will increasingly be seen as an unforced error.  The issue is not that China lied about covid-19 to save face:  the issue is rather that we knew they might do so, because we had experience with their having done it in the past (notably with SARS in 2003), yet we went ahead and stopped funding our own eyes on the situation.  This tells our allies, some of whom were relying on the umbrella provided by our medical liaisons, that the US cannot be trusted to look after their interests even when it is in the US' own selfish interest to do so.  In fact, I think the situation is likely to be even worse--there is bound to be deep and lasting resentment in allied countries at US inaction poisoning their own pandemic responses.
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.
Biggest blows to US soft power are self-inflicted.
1. Inability to respond to a challenge. Bad in 2008, even worse in 2020.
2. Inability to help others. Who was sending help when Italy was the first hot spot? China and Russia, of all places. What did the US do to help? A friend in need...
3. Of course, medical liason... How well surveillance systems worked within US and what makes you think it would work any better outside of the US?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:00:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

The Chinese government is not a racial group.

That's like, if people say the Kremlin lied about something, claiming they're racist against ethnic Russians.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 14, 2020, 04:03:34 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:00:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

The Chinese government is not a racial group.

That's like, if people say the Kremlin lied about something, claiming they're racist against ethnic Russians.

That was the justification for the US to put ethnic Japanese in camps during WWII. It shouldn't have any connection, but some people equate the two.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:04:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:00:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

The Chinese government is not a racial group.

That's like, if people say the Kremlin lied about something, claiming they're racist against ethnic Russians.
There was A LOT of "we have much better hygiene, infection will never spread over here" thinking - and (IN)ACTION. So yes, it was about race.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 14, 2020, 04:18:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:04:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:00:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

The Chinese government is not a racial group.

That's like, if people say the Kremlin lied about something, claiming they're racist against ethnic Russians.
There was A LOT of "we have much better hygiene, infection will never spread over here" thinking - and (IN)ACTION. So yes, it was about race.

I've never heard that even once until you just posted it now. There's no question that China lied, or at the very least hid the truth about this virus in the beginning. It doesn't excuse the inaction that led this country to have the highest death rate, but it is most certainly a contributing factor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:21:37 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:04:22 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:00:51 PM

Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

The Chinese government is not a racial group.

That's like, if people say the Kremlin lied about something, claiming they're racist against ethnic Russians.

There was A LOT of "we have much better hygiene, infection will never spread over here" thinking - and (IN)ACTION. So yes, it was about race.

That's correct.  And it may or may not be true that we have better hygiene here.  And saying so may or may not be racist.  But that has nothing do with "China lied".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:25:25 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 04:18:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:04:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:00:51 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

The Chinese government is not a racial group.

That's like, if people say the Kremlin lied about something, claiming they're racist against ethnic Russians.
There was A LOT of "we have much better hygiene, infection will never spread over here" thinking - and (IN)ACTION. So yes, it was about race.

I've never heard that even once until you just posted it now. There's no question that China lied, or at the very least hid the truth about this virus in the beginning. It doesn't excuse the inaction that led this country to have the highest death rate, but it is most certainly a contributing factor.
If you count initial confusion - which is an expected part of any crisis - as lied, then you will have to admit that US lied even more.... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:26:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:21:37 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:04:22 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:00:51 PM

Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

The Chinese government is not a racial group.

That's like, if people say the Kremlin lied about something, claiming they're racist against ethnic Russians.

There was A LOT of "we have much better hygiene, infection will never spread over here" thinking - and (IN)ACTION. So yes, it was about race.

That's correct.  And it may or may not be true that we have better hygiene here.  And saying so may or may not be racist.  But that has nothing do with "China lied".

Well, slightly different aspect from this very thread:
Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 27, 2020, 06:28:48 PM
Quote from: Bruce on February 27, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
We really shouldn't downplay the spread of COVID-19, which has a much higher fatality rate than the normal flu (around 2%) and seems to spread quite fast. Japan and South Korea have both started their own quarantines to try and contain the spread, Italy has its outbreak, and there's only so much we can learn out of China. Even the "underreported" figures are quite significant, and it's also having an impact on the world economy as more and more man-hours are lost in China.

That being said, the media hype is causing its own problems. Locally, there's been an uptick in anti-Asian racism, including harassment that I have experienced myself on the street.
That racism towards Asians and Asian-Americans (myself included–my mother and her family are from Taichung, Taiwan) really is disgusting when you get down to the nitty-gritty. I keep telling this to my friends that I have talked to on FB and whatnot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on July 14, 2020, 04:30:00 PM
Quote2. Inability to help others. Who was sending help when Italy was the first hot spot? China and Russia, of all places. What did the US do to help? A friend in need...

Samaritan's Purse sent a field hospital to Cremona, Italy (https://www.samaritanspurse.org/article/field-hospital-opens-receives-patients-in-italy/), before later setting up the one in NYC.

(Note that I understand that Samaritan's Purse is a religious organization. Knowing that posting this is debatably against the Forum Guidelines, my intent here in mentioning this is only to state that an organization in the U.S. did help out in Italy.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:26:23 PM
Well, slightly different aspect from this very thread:

Quote from: kevinb1994 on February 27, 2020, 06:28:48 PM

Quote from: Bruce on February 27, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
We really shouldn't downplay the spread of COVID-19, which has a much higher fatality rate than the normal flu (around 2%) and seems to spread quite fast. Japan and South Korea have both started their own quarantines to try and contain the spread, Italy has its outbreak, and there's only so much we can learn out of China. Even the "underreported" figures are quite significant, and it's also having an impact on the world economy as more and more man-hours are lost in China.

That being said, the media hype is causing its own problems. Locally, there's been an uptick in anti-Asian racism, including harassment that I have experienced myself on the street.

That racism towards Asians and Asian-Americans (myself included–my mother and her family are from Taichung, Taiwan) really is disgusting when you get down to the nitty-gritty. I keep telling this to my friends that I have talked to on FB and whatnot.


So you're saying that, when people claimed China's government was under-reporting the numbers, it was because they were racist against ethnic Chinese people?  Or are you saying it caused other people to be racist against ethnic Chinese people?

Quote from: 74/171FAN on July 14, 2020, 04:30:00 PM

Quote
2. Inability to help others. Who was sending help when Italy was the first hot spot? China and Russia, of all places. What did the US do to help? A friend in need..

Samaritan's Purse sent a field hospital to Cremona, Italy (https://www.samaritanspurse.org/article/field-hospital-opens-receives-patients-in-italy/), before later setting up the one in NYC.

(Note that I understand that Samaritan's Purse is a religious organization. Knowing that posting this is debatably against the Forum Guidelines, my intent here in mentioning this is only to state that an organization in the U.S. did help out in Italy.)

You weren't discussing religion.  All you did was state what a non-profit entity did in response to the epidemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 04:35:33 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 04:18:17 PM
I've never heard that even once until you just posted it now. There's no question that China lied, or at the very least hid the truth about this virus in the beginning. It doesn't excuse the inaction that led this country to have the highest death rate, but it is most certainly a contributing factor.

America doesn't have the highest death rate.  The UK's 67.55 deaths per 100k is 63% higher than America's 41.45 deaths per 100,000k.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:49:18 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on July 14, 2020, 04:30:00 PM
Quote2. Inability to help others. Who was sending help when Italy was the first hot spot? China and Russia, of all places. What did the US do to help? A friend in need...

Samaritan's Purse sent a field hospital to Cremona, Italy (https://www.samaritanspurse.org/article/field-hospital-opens-receives-patients-in-italy/), before later setting up the one in NYC.

(Note that I understand that Samaritan's Purse is a religious organization. Knowing that posting this is debatably against the Forum Guidelines, my intent here in mentioning this is only to state that an organization in the U.S. did help out in Italy.)
If you will, it is about large scale recovery operations - US seemingly didn't respond properly to Katrina in NO or, arguably, Maria in PR as well - so this is a pattern. Single religious organization certainly doesn't have resources anywhere close to what largest economy of the world would.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 14, 2020, 04:50:14 PM
I can't believe Connecticut had only 20 cases today. Twenty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 14, 2020, 04:54:32 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 14, 2020, 04:50:14 PM
I can't believe Connecticut had only 20 cases today. Twenty.

They had 11 on June 18, 27 on June 22, and 14 on June 24 (with -1594 tests). I think they're data adjustments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:56:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
So you're saying that, when people claimed China's government was under-reporting the numbers, it was because they were racist against ethnic Chinese people?  Or are you saying it caused other people to be racist against ethnic Chinese people?

I am saying that there was a lot of "it cannot happen here!" attitude, which found its way into CDC documents - and which led to uncontrolled growth of first wave in US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 14, 2020, 04:57:23 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 03:04:27 PM

*  This pandemic represents a major blow to US soft power, since the dismantling of the overseas medical liaison system is now and will increasingly be seen as an unforced error.  The issue is not that China lied about covid-19 to save face:  the issue is rather that we knew they might do so, because we had experience with their having done it in the past (notably with SARS in 2003), yet we went ahead and stopped funding our own eyes on the situation.  This tells our allies, some of whom were relying on the umbrella provided by our medical liaisons, that the US cannot be trusted to look after their interests even when it is in the US' own selfish interest to do so.  In fact, I think the situation is likely to be even worse--there is bound to be deep and lasting resentment in allied countries at US inaction poisoning their own pandemic responses.
I hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.
Biggest blows to US soft power are self-inflicted.
1. Inability to respond to a challenge. Bad in 2008, even worse in 2020.
2. Inability to help others. Who was sending help when Italy was the first hot spot? China and Russia, of all places. What did the US do to help? A friend in need...
3. Of course, medical liason... How well surveillance systems worked within US and what makes you think it would work any better outside of the US?


Look, the whole "China lied" issue may have been a semi-decent excuse back in March and April.

But it is an absolutely unjustifiable excuse now.  We have had plenty of time to adjust, and had actually been doing a decent job, but then we decided we were done and it's exploded on us again.  Can't blame China for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:59:45 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 04:56:32 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
So you're saying that, when people claimed China's government was under-reporting the numbers, it was because they were racist against ethnic Chinese people?  Or are you saying it caused other people to be racist against ethnic Chinese people?

I am saying that there was a lot of "it cannot happen here!" attitude, which found its way into CDC documents - and which led to uncontrolled growth of first wave in US.

Which, again, has nothing to do with "China lied".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 05:02:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 14, 2020, 04:57:23 PM
Look, the whole "China lied" issue may have been a semi-decent excuse back in March and April.

But it is an absolutely unjustifiable excuse now.  We have had plenty of time to adjust, and had actually been doing a decent job, but then we decided we were done and it's exploded on us again.  Can't blame China for that.

Actually, I haven't really been hearing much about China at all in at least a month.  Not about under-reporting the numbers, not about the virus leaking out of a lab, not about hygiene, not about anything.  This thread is the first I've heard about China in quite some time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 05:05:32 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 05:02:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 14, 2020, 04:57:23 PM
Look, the whole "China lied" issue may have been a semi-decent excuse back in March and April.

But it is an absolutely unjustifiable excuse now.  We have had plenty of time to adjust, and had actually been doing a decent job, but then we decided we were done and it's exploded on us again.  Can't blame China for that.

Actually, I haven't really been hearing much about China at all in at least a month.  Not about under-reporting the numbers, not about the virus leaking out of a lab, not about hygiene, not about anything.  This thread is the first I've heard about China in quite some time.

Totalitarian government doesn't argue with those who refuse to wear mask - so CHina is doing fairly well from what I hear,  working hard to supply US with masks which  largest economy in the world unable to make and population unable to use...
An outbreak of plague in Inner Mongolia (as well as Mongolia) is another story. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 74/171FAN on July 14, 2020, 05:08:17 PM
QuoteIf you will, it is about large scale recovery operations - US seemingly didn't respond properly to Katrina in NO or, arguably, Maria in PR as well - so this is a pattern. Single religious organization certainly doesn't have resources anywhere close to what largest economy of the world would.

I agree in that the response from the US government itself to these events has been lacking. 

Beyond that, I do not remember a huge push from the US to help people in Puerto Rico after Maria even compared to the push to help people in New Orleans after Katrina.  After Katrina, I could not even tell you how many nonprofit organizations helped clean up New Orleans.  In my circles as a teenager, I heard about trips to Louisiana to help clean up for up two years after the event.  (For the record, I did not go on any of those.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 05:13:04 PM
Quote from: 74/171FAN on July 14, 2020, 05:08:17 PM
QuoteIf you will, it is about large scale recovery operations - US seemingly didn't respond properly to Katrina in NO or, arguably, Maria in PR as well - so this is a pattern. Single religious organization certainly doesn't have resources anywhere close to what largest economy of the world would.

I agree in that the response from the US government itself to these events has been lacking. 

Beyond that, I do not remember a huge push from the US to help people in Puerto Rico after Maria even compared to the push to help people in New Orleans after Katrina.  After Katrina, I could not even tell you how many nonprofit organizations helped clean up New Orleans.  In my circles as a teenager, I heard about trips to Louisiana to help clean up for up two years after the event.  (For the record, I did not go on any of those.)

NY governor was trying to make national stage (personal take on it) by helping PR - with things like restoration of power grid... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 05:29:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PMI hear a lot about "china lied" - nothing concrete. So far my impression is US racism extends way beyond issue of white-and-black.

Yes--racism comes in rainbow colors in this country.

Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PMBiggest blows to US soft power are self-inflicted.

Agreed.

Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PMOf course, medical liaison... How well surveillance systems worked within US and what makes you think it would work any better outside of the US?

There are no guarantees it would have worked, but it would have given us much more of a fighting chance.  To win the game, you have to go to the locker room and suit up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
The idea that we wouldn't have already had a recession with 135,000 consumers suddenly removed from the economy over the space of five months is absurd. If your primary concern is the economy, you should favor virus containment issues, because the dead spend no money.

Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PM
I have yet to see a store actually enforce a mask requirement.  For example, my parents and I went to Chili's on Saturday, and a party of about six people came in and not one of them was wearing a mask.  Even though the restaurant is required by ordinance to require all guests to wear masks, restaurant staff did not bar their entry.  Rather, they promptly seated their six paying guests in a booth and took their order.  And I haven't been in a single grocery store or home improvement store in the past week where every single customer was wearing a mask, yet I also haven't seen the staff kicking anybody out.

Not a store, but the casino I work at has security posted at the entrance that will not let you in without a mask. (If you don't have one on you, they will happily sell you a disposable one for $3.) If you take your mask off inside when not eating/drinking/smoking, security will tell you that you  have to put it on, and refusing to do so is grounds for getting kicked out and probably banned. Most of the cashiers will not redeem your tickets or chips if you are not properly wearing a mask.

Why anyone is gambling in a pandemic in the first place, though, is beyond me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 14, 2020, 05:43:43 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
Why anyone is gambling in a pandemic at any time at games at are overwhelmingly in the house's favor in the first place, though, is beyond me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 14, 2020, 05:45:22 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 05:43:43 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
Why anyone is gambling in a pandemic at any time at games at are overwhelmingly in the house's favor in the first place, though, is beyond me.

Casino games are MUCH closer to fair than lottery tickets are. I would not call it "overwhelmingly" at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 14, 2020, 05:49:35 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2020, 05:45:22 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 05:43:43 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
Why anyone is gambling in a pandemic at any time at games at are overwhelmingly in the house's favor in the first place, though, is beyond me.

Casino games are MUCH closer to fair than lottery tickets are. I would not call it "overwhelmingly" at all.

If you're going to repeat the activity for any significant amount of time, a 3% house edge for a 10 second event is pretty overwhelming.

Lotteries are of course worse odds, but you can have fun playing $5-10 on the lottery once or twice a week. Hard to have much fun at a casino on $10-20.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on July 14, 2020, 06:15:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PMI have yet to see a store actually enforce a mask requirement.

Same in my area. No social distancing, either. :banghead:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ixnay on July 14, 2020, 06:30:41 PM
Quote from: Takumi on July 13, 2020, 07:40:29 PM
^ I've seen some anti-lockdown protests reported in a few European countries, but they were nowhere nearly as widespread.

Quote from: NE2 on July 13, 2020, 08:07:32 PM

The Brazilian Trump joined a such a protest back in April.

There seem to be some tweeters in the UK pushing back.

https://twitter.com/samisam147/status/1282796400795951104

[link is from another mb]

ixnay
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 06:48:45 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 05:49:35 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2020, 05:45:22 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 14, 2020, 05:43:43 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
Why anyone is gambling in a pandemic at any time at games at are overwhelmingly in the house's favor in the first place, though, is beyond me.

Casino games are MUCH closer to fair than lottery tickets are. I would not call it "overwhelmingly" at all.

If you're going to repeat the activity for any significant amount of time, a 3% house edge for a 10 second event is pretty overwhelming.

Lotteries are of course worse odds, but you can have fun playing $5-10 on the lottery once or twice a week. Hard to have much fun at a casino on $10-20.

I mean, you can stretch $100 out all day if you bet horses. (If you bet a single 10¢ superfecta each race, with 20 minutes between each race, you're down 30¢/hour for each track you bet on. Even if you box it, it's only $7.20/hour.) Another good option is playing $3-$6 limit poker. A slot machine will eat it up in a couple of hours no matter what you do, though.

For someone with a healthy outlook on it, it is a pastime rather than any serious attempt at making meaningful amounts of money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 06:58:55 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 14, 2020, 05:29:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PMOf course, medical liaison... How well surveillance systems worked within US and what makes you think it would work any better outside of the US?

There are no guarantees it would have worked, but it would have given us much more of a fighting chance.  To win the game, you have to go to the locker room and suit up.
How  exactly it would help?
What kind of information could such liaison provide which was not published otherwise?

People somehow assume that China got the virus with the standard datasheet - which was apparently not the case. And apparently US virologists and epidemiologists are not way more qualified than Chinese specialists. If anything, its the other way around
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 14, 2020, 07:00:39 PM
A federal response wouldn't be based on shutdown orders.  The federal government doesn't have that kind of direct authority over people (unless they want to claim it affects interstate commerce, in which case they can do whatever they want).  Such orders come from the police power of the states.  The federal response would be more strategic, such as issuing guidance and coordinating the importation, production, and distribution of supplies.  That's an executive function.  The only thing Congress would be needed for is paying for it.  The state and federal governments each have their place.  The states are in direct contact with the people, while the feds are more in contact with the states.  A better federal response would have coordinated the supply chain and would have issued guidance and then actually recommended that states follow the guidance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 07:01:53 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 06:48:45 PM
I mean, you can stretch $100 out all day if you bet horses.
Reminds me how I was gambling in Vegas...  Long story short: By the time I lost my third dollar....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 07:02:57 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 14, 2020, 07:00:39 PM
A federal response wouldn't be based on shutdown orders.  The federal government doesn't have that kind of direct authority over people (unless they want to claim it affects interstate commerce, in which case they can do whatever they want).  Such orders come from the police power of the states.  The federal response would be more strategic, such as issuing guidance and coordinating the importation, production, and distribution of supplies.  That's an executive function.  The only thing Congress would be needed for is paying for it.  The state and federal governments each have their place.  The states are in direct contact with the people, while the feds are more in contact with the states.  A better federal response would have coordinated the supply chain and would have issued guidance and then actually recommended that states follow the guidance.
And that is exactly where CDC failed miserably and probably criminally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:05:38 PM
Back in April Florida was testing 10,000 people a day.  Now they are reporting 15,000 positive cases a day (among ~100k daily tests).  That means the test positivity rate in Florida would need to be 150% (an impossibility) for the increase in cases to be attributed entirely to the virus spread.  The reality is roughly 85% of the daily cases can be attributed to increases in testing.  You are going to find a LOT more cases when you are testing 100k people a day as opposed to 10k.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 07:16:09 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:05:38 PM
Back in April Florida was testing 10,000 people a day.  Now they are reporting 15,000 positive cases a day (among ~100k daily tests).  That means the test positivity rate in Florida would need to be 150% (an impossibility) for the increase in cases to be attributed entirely to the virus spread.  The reality is roughly 85% of the daily cases can be attributed to increases in testing.  You are going to find a LOT more cases when you are testing 100k people a day as opposed to 10k.
In your dreams maybe... on a more solid base - FL was reporting 40-50 virus deaths a day in april-early may, and up to 80 last week. With a clear improvement in treatment... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:41:01 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 07:16:09 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:05:38 PM
Back in April Florida was testing 10,000 people a day.  Now they are reporting 15,000 positive cases a day (among ~100k daily tests).  That means the test positivity rate in Florida would need to be 150% (an impossibility) for the increase in cases to be attributed entirely to the virus spread.  The reality is roughly 85% of the daily cases can be attributed to increases in testing.  You are going to find a LOT more cases when you are testing 100k people a day as opposed to 10k.
In your dreams maybe... on a more solid base - FL was reporting 40-50 virus deaths a day in april-early may, and up to 80 last week. With a clear improvement in treatment... 

My larger point is that if Florida was testing 10k people a day like they were back in April, it would be impossible to see 15k daily new cases today.  With 10k daily tests and a 20% test positivity rate, they would be reporting about 2k daily cases.  That's a far cry from the 15k daily cases Florida is reporting today (due to the increased testing). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 14, 2020, 08:11:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 10:18:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 08:44:55 PM
Well that's exactly how it would work. Quick tests already exist that can produce results in 15 minutes. Not instant, but fast enough to make it part of the process of clearing security at the airport.
15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?
I mean airport security lines are already so long, so what is 15 more minutes?
15 extra minutes per TSA clearance does not yield an extra 15 minutes for every passenger.  If there are eight people in line in front of you, and each one takes an extra 15 minutes to clear TSA, then you don't get to the front of the line for another two hours.

If done correctly it's 15 extra minutes for each person. There is no sane reason why you would need to wait for the person in front of you to get their result before you can start the process. They can do multiple tests in parallel.

Could even be less than 15 minutes - have people get swabbed or whatever at the desk where IDs are being checked. Then the time they take to put their bags through the X-ray machine and get scanned overlaps with the time waiting for test results to come back.

Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:41:01 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 07:16:09 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:05:38 PM
Back in April Florida was testing 10,000 people a day.  Now they are reporting 15,000 positive cases a day (among ~100k daily tests).  That means the test positivity rate in Florida would need to be 150% (an impossibility) for the increase in cases to be attributed entirely to the virus spread.  The reality is roughly 85% of the daily cases can be attributed to increases in testing.  You are going to find a LOT more cases when you are testing 100k people a day as opposed to 10k.
In your dreams maybe... on a more solid base - FL was reporting 40-50 virus deaths a day in april-early may, and up to 80 last week. With a clear improvement in treatment... 

My larger point is that if Florida was testing 10k people a day like they were back in April, it would be impossible to see 15k daily new cases today.  With 10k daily tests and a 20% test positivity rate, they would be reporting about 2k daily cases.  That's a far cry from the 15k daily cases Florida is reporting today (due to the increased testing). 

Yeah the logic here is completely backwards. Florida is doing more tests because they keep finding more cases and thus there is cause to keep boosting the capacity. Not the other way around.

Compare to Connecticut: Connecticut is doing 4 times as many tests per day now as they were in April, but is finding 10 times fewer cases.

It is true that lack of testing capacity can and has obscured the true number of cases, but this doesn't mean apparent increases in case counts aren't real. If you suspect there is a testing capacity constraint messing with the numbers, look at the trend on hospitalizations - Florida has a lot more of those now than they did in April. More tests aren't the reason for that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 14, 2020, 08:31:27 PM
People are hospitalized and die because of virus tests as often as they get pregnant because of pregnancy tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on July 14, 2020, 08:33:59 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.
You are wrong. several states chose not to close or open way too early. that led to the businesses trying to make money at the expense of health issues and people not giving a shit whatsoever about the pandemic and states turning a blind eye to it all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 08:38:07 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 14, 2020, 08:31:27 PM
People are hospitalized and die because of virus tests as often as they get pregnant because of pregnancy tests.
I wouldn't be surprized there are quite a few heart attact related to pregnancy test. Probably more than related to virus tests... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 09:19:04 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 14, 2020, 08:11:43 PM
It is true that lack of testing capacity can and has obscured the true number of cases, but this doesn't mean apparent increases in case counts aren't real. If you suspect there is a testing capacity constraint messing with the numbers, look at the trend on hospitalizations - Florida has a lot more of those now than they did in April. More tests aren't the reason for that.

According to Johns Hopkins testing dashboard, on April 3rd Florida reported 1,575 cases among 14,426 daily tests (test positivity=10.9%).  I picked April 3rd because it was the highest number of cases Florida reported in March and April.  On July 12th, Florida performed 98,708 tests and reported a record 15,300 cases (test positivity=15.5%).  Assuming the same test positivity rate of 10.9% back in April, you would have expected to see 10,776 daily cases on July 12th (which is 70% of 15,300).  So the increase in testing (from 14,426 on April 3rd to 98,708 on July 12th) account for 70% of the increase in daily cases while 30% is due to an increase in the test positivity rate (from 10.9% on April 3rd to 15.5% on July 12th). 

Ultimately if Florida performed the 14,426 daily tests on July 12th that they tested back in April, they would have reported 2,236 daily cases (as opposed to the 15,300 they actually reported).  Can we agree that 2,236 daily cases would sound a lot less daunting to Floridians than 15,300 daily cases?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 14, 2020, 09:23:18 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 09:19:04 PM
Ultimately if Florida performed the 14,426 daily tests on July 12th that they tested back in April, they would have reported 2,236 daily cases (as opposed to the 15,300 they actually reported).  Can we agree that 2,236 daily cases would sound a lot less daunting to Floridians than 15,300 daily cases?

If Florida only tested 14,426 people per day now, over 50% of them would be positive, as the people getting tested would be the ones who more obviously have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on July 14, 2020, 09:26:38 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
If you don't have one on you, they will happily sell you a disposable one for $3
Wow, at Tim Hortons I saw them give one away for free!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 09:41:50 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2020, 09:23:18 PM
If Florida only tested 14,426 people per day now, over 50% of them would be positive, as the people getting tested would be the ones who more obviously have it.

That may be true.  We saw 50% positivity rates in New York early in this pandemic when testing was scarce.  But 7213 daily cases would still be a lot less than 15,300. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 11:20:33 PM
Quote from: vdeane on July 14, 2020, 09:26:38 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
If you don't have one on you, they will happily sell you a disposable one for $3
Wow, at Tim Hortons I saw them give one away for free!

It's not a terribly popular policy with the customers. This has never stopped management, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 15, 2020, 02:21:16 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 09:19:04 PM
Assuming the same test positivity rate

Yeah, see, the problem is this is a flawed assumption, because who gets tested is not chosen at random. When fewer tests are available they are rationed in a way that reserves them for people more likely to test positive. So no, you can't just linearly scale this and assume Florida would have been finding 10,000 daily positives in April if they were testing as much then as now.

And again, look at hospitalizations: the 7-day moving average of covid hospital admissions in Florida was hovering a bit over 150/day back in April. It's now up to close to 350/day. (source) (https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/07/08/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/) This suggests real daily case counts have more than doubled, at a minimum, in the past few months. In reality the percent increase is even higher than this, since newer cases are skewing more towards younger demographics who are less likely to warrant hospitalization.

Even if we assume the ratio is 350/150 though, this means that the April counts normalized to current testing rate would be about 6,557, not 10,776. This would leave us with 36% of the count increase being attributable to increased testing, and even that is a highball number because of the aforementioned demographic skew.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 08:05:20 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 15, 2020, 02:21:16 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 09:19:04 PM
Assuming the same test positivity rate

Yeah, see, the problem is this is a flawed assumption, because who gets tested is not chosen at random. When fewer tests are available they are rationed in a way that reserves them for people more likely to test positive. So no, you can't just linearly scale this and assume Florida would have been finding 10,000 daily positives in April if they were testing as much then as now.

A safe assumption is that Florida would never be reporting 15,300 daily cases today if they were still only testing 14,426 people a day.  Here is a simple scenario (somewhat similar to Florida):

April:
10,000 tests a day
1,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate

July:
100,000 tests a day
30,000 positive cases
30% positivity rate

In this scenario, cases jumped from 1,000 a day to 30,000.  Assuming 10k tests a day with a 30% positivity rate, that would equate to 3,000 cases not 30,000.  That means the remaining 27,000 cases (90%) can be attributed to the 10X increase in testing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 15, 2020, 08:56:21 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 08:05:20 AM
A safe assumption is that Florida would never be reporting 15,300 daily cases today if they were still only testing 14,426 people a day. 
It is not a safe assumption. It is an explicitly wrong one.
If there is limited means of diagnostics - as it was February-March, other diagnostic approaches would be used. CT and MRI present a characteristic "ground glass" image of the lungs. MRI is slow, CT means significant dose, and both are fairly expensive - but that is definitely a possibility that was used. The worst case scenario is symptomatic diagnostics, where pneumonia is assumed to be COVID related if there is no reason to believe otherwise.
You know, they didn't have PCR or MRI in 1918 -still, people were diagnosed...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 09:05:00 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 14, 2020, 08:11:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 01:22:45 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 10:18:06 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 13, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 13, 2020, 08:44:55 PM
Well that's exactly how it would work. Quick tests already exist that can produce results in 15 minutes. Not instant, but fast enough to make it part of the process of clearing security at the airport.
15 min is a lot - and is there enough of such 15 min kits? And who's paying, btw?
I mean airport security lines are already so long, so what is 15 more minutes?
15 extra minutes per TSA clearance does not yield an extra 15 minutes for every passenger.  If there are eight people in line in front of you, and each one takes an extra 15 minutes to clear TSA, then you don't get to the front of the line for another two hours.

If done correctly it's 15 extra minutes for each person. There is no sane reason why you would need to wait for the person in front of you to get their result before you can start the process. They can do multiple tests in parallel.

Could even be less than 15 minutes - have people get swabbed or whatever at the desk where IDs are being checked. Then the time they take to put their bags through the X-ray machine and get scanned overlaps with the time waiting for test results to come back.

Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:41:01 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 07:16:09 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 07:05:38 PM
Back in April Florida was testing 10,000 people a day.  Now they are reporting 15,000 positive cases a day (among ~100k daily tests).  That means the test positivity rate in Florida would need to be 150% (an impossibility) for the increase in cases to be attributed entirely to the virus spread.  The reality is roughly 85% of the daily cases can be attributed to increases in testing.  You are going to find a LOT more cases when you are testing 100k people a day as opposed to 10k.
In your dreams maybe... on a more solid base - FL was reporting 40-50 virus deaths a day in april-early may, and up to 80 last week. With a clear improvement in treatment... 

My larger point is that if Florida was testing 10k people a day like they were back in April, it would be impossible to see 15k daily new cases today.  With 10k daily tests and a 20% test positivity rate, they would be reporting about 2k daily cases.  That's a far cry from the 15k daily cases Florida is reporting today (due to the increased testing). 

Yeah the logic here is completely backwards. Florida is doing more tests because they keep finding more cases and thus there is cause to keep boosting the capacity. Not the other way around.

Compare to Connecticut: Connecticut is doing 4 times as many tests per day now as they were in April, but is finding 10 times fewer cases.

It is true that lack of testing capacity can and has obscured the true number of cases, but this doesn't mean apparent increases in case counts aren't real. If you suspect there is a testing capacity constraint messing with the numbers, look at the trend on hospitalizations - Florida has a lot more of those now than they did in April. More tests aren't the reason for that.


tradephoric is trying REALLY hard not to see something that is pretty f**king obvious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 15, 2020, 09:33:30 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 15, 2020, 08:56:21 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 08:05:20 AM
A safe assumption is that Florida would never be reporting 15,300 daily cases today if they were still only testing 14,426 people a day. 
It is not a safe assumption. It is an explicitly wrong one.
If there is limited means of diagnostics - as it was February-March, other diagnostic approaches would be used. CT and MRI present a characteristic "ground glass" image of the lungs. MRI is slow, CT means significant dose, and both are fairly expensive - but that is definitely a possibility that was used. The worst case scenario is symptomatic diagnostics, where pneumonia is assumed to be COVID related if there is no reason to believe otherwise.
You know, they didn't have PCR or MRI in 1918 -still, people were diagnosed...

15300 > 14426

However, this is only because if you have a low number of tests, you're guaranteed to have a low number of positives regardless of how many there actually are. You're artificially limiting yourself by doing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 15, 2020, 09:45:22 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 08:05:20 AM

A safe assumption is that Florida would never be reporting 15,300 daily cases today if they were still only testing 14,426 people a day.  Here is a simple scenario (somewhat similar to Florida):

April:
10,000 tests a day
1,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate

July:
100,000 tests a day
30,000 positive cases
30% positivity rate

In this scenario, cases jumped from 1,000 a day to 30,000.  Assuming 10k tests a day with a 30% positivity rate, that would equate to 3,000 cases not 30,000.  That means the remaining 27,000 cases (90%) can be attributed to the 10X increase in testing.


That's not even close to how math works. There is a 30% positivity rate now compared to a 10% positivity rate back in April, so real infections have tripled, regardless of how many people are tested, and that's a massive failure on the part of Federal and state governments to get to that point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 15, 2020, 10:01:40 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM

Why anyone is gambling in a pandemic in the first place, though, is beyond me.

It's just a bigger gamble, all the more exciting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 15, 2020, 10:15:32 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 08:05:20 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 15, 2020, 02:21:16 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 14, 2020, 09:19:04 PM
Assuming the same test positivity rate

Yeah, see, the problem is this is a flawed assumption, because who gets tested is not chosen at random. When fewer tests are available they are rationed in a way that reserves them for people more likely to test positive. So no, you can't just linearly scale this and assume Florida would have been finding 10,000 daily positives in April if they were testing as much then as now.

A safe assumption is that Florida would never be reporting 15,300 daily cases today if they were still only testing 14,426 people a day.  Here is a simple scenario (somewhat similar to Florida):

April:
10,000 tests a day
1,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate

July:
100,000 tests a day
30,000 positive cases
30% positivity rate

In this scenario, cases jumped from 1,000 a day to 30,000.  Assuming 10k tests a day with a 30% positivity rate, that would equate to 3,000 cases not 30,000.  That means the remaining 27,000 cases (90%) can be attributed to the 10X increase in testing.

Your point that you can't get more positive results than tests is obvious, but to assume that means that the increase in positives is because of the increase in tests is incorrect.  If the virus weren't spreading, we wouldn't be finding those positives.  If you increase testing and the positives go up and the positivity rate goes down, that increase may be attributable to the increase in testing and may not reflect faster spread.  If you test more, and get more positives, and the positivity rate goes up, that means the actual increase in spread is more than the increase in testing.

Refusing to take a pregnancy test is not an effective means of contraception.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 15, 2020, 10:36:16 AM
My small town had a drive-thru test a couple of weeks ago. The local paper had a big headline saying that nine positive cases were founded. The fine print below the headline says that around 600 tests were administered, for a positivity rate of around 1.5%.

The county two counties to the south of mine has had a big outbreak (around 400 cases in a county of less than 30,000 population), mostly attributed to agricultural workers that live and work closely together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 11:35:07 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 05:05:32 PM
An outbreak of plague in Inner Mongolia (as well as Mongolia) is another story. 

There's a bubonic plague 'outbreak' in that part of the world all the time.  Heck, there are around a dozen or two cases of it in the USA every year too.  For some reason, though, headlines occasionally pop through as if that weren't the case.

Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
The idea that we wouldn't have already had a recession with 135,000 consumers suddenly removed from the economy over the space of five months is absurd. If your primary concern is the economy, you should favor virus containment issues, because the dead spend no money.

Not even close to the same numbers.  Weekly unemployment claims in the USA average between 200k and 250k per week.  These days, California alone exceeds that in initial claims.  For week ending 27-JUN-2020, there were 1,421,058 initial unemployment claims nationwide.

Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
Why anyone is gambling in a pandemic in the first place, though, is beyond me.

I'm not interested in gambling, never have been.  But, two possible answers:

(1)  Gambling is an addiction, and they're addicted.

(2)  Their finances have not been affected by the pandemic, they don't consider being at the casino to be a significant health risk, and they needed to use up some PTO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 11:44:00 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 14, 2020, 08:33:59 PM

Quote from: hbelkins on July 14, 2020, 12:23:56 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 13, 2020, 04:13:49 PM
Nope. The unemployment is being caused by the pandemic.  Not your governor.

Wrong. The virus didn't order businesses to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. Each individual state's governor issued those orders. More governors could have chosen to do what South Dakota's did -- not order closures, and let people and businesses make their own decisions about whether to stay open and at what level of service, whether or not to patronize open businesses, etc. The virus didn't cause any of this. The response to the virus did.

You are wrong. several states chose not to close or open way too early. that led to the businesses trying to make money at the expense of health issues and people not giving a shit whatsoever about the pandemic and states turning a blind eye to it all.

Which does not contradict what hbelkins said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 11:44:45 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
The idea that we wouldn't have already had a recession with 135,000 consumers suddenly removed from the economy over the space of five months is absurd. If your primary concern is the economy, you should favor virus containment issues, because the dead spend no money.


That's not the main reason the economy is bad.  In fact that is a very small reason it is bad.

The biggest reason is that otherwise healthy people aren't engaging is as much economic activity.  They aren't going out to eat, etc. due to fears of the virus.  Furthermore, the lack of economic activity, combined with increases in unemployment, is causing people to stop spending in case they face tougher economic circumstance.

My wife and I have both faced pay cuts, yet our savings account balance has increased since March.  Not caused by tax returns or stimulus - simply spending less and saving more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 15, 2020, 12:14:44 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 11:35:07 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 14, 2020, 05:05:32 PM
An outbreak of plague in Inner Mongolia (as well as Mongolia) is another story. 
There's a bubonic plague 'outbreak' in that part of the world all the time.  Heck, there are around a dozen or two cases of it in the USA every year too.  For some reason, though, headlines occasionally pop through as if that weren't the case.
Close, but not exactly. THere are slower times in terms of plague and flare-outs. Animal to human and human to human transmission are two options, second one being more dangerous - and I believe they have that dangerous option right now.
On the same page - covid  was originally believed to be animal-to-human disease, so not warranting highest alert. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NE2 on July 15, 2020, 12:22:41 PM
I heard parclo B4s spread Covid. Hoax?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 15, 2020, 12:37:23 PM
Quote from: NE2 on July 15, 2020, 12:22:41 PM
I heard parclo B4s spread Covid. Hoax?
Almost. Someone was standing there with a cardboard sign at the interchange. Not sure if that was "unemployed and evicted" or "Biden 2020" - but apparently that person was without a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on July 15, 2020, 02:20:47 PM
The governor of Oklahoma has tested positive.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/kevin-stitt-oklahoma-governor-coronavirus/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/kevin-stitt-oklahoma-governor-coronavirus/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jdb1234 on July 15, 2020, 02:45:08 PM
Alabama has issued a statewide mask order:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/gov-ivey-covid-update-today-press-conference-planned-for-11-am-watch-live.html

I wonder if it is too little too late. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 02:56:17 PM
Quote from: jdb1234 on July 15, 2020, 02:45:08 PM
too late

Is that possible?  Isn't something more effective than nothing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on July 15, 2020, 03:04:07 PM
Quote from: LM117 on July 15, 2020, 02:20:47 PM
The governor of Oklahoma has tested positive.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/kevin-stitt-oklahoma-governor-coronavirus/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/kevin-stitt-oklahoma-governor-coronavirus/index.html)
While he may have attended the Trump Rally, that was 25 days ago while the incubation period is 2-14 days. So unless he was asymptomatic for the time between the rally and testing, it would be a different cause.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 15, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 15, 2020, 03:43:51 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 02:56:17 PM
Quote from: jdb1234 on July 15, 2020, 02:45:08 PM
too late

Is that possible?  Isn't something more effective than nothing?
Case count may go up for another 15-20 days, potentially by as much as a factor of 100 total. So with a 1600 cases latest daily number, having 100's thousand sick (out of 5M population) by the end of the month is pessimistic estimate. Realistically, 2-3 k/daily for the next two weeks mean 30k active cases by the end of month - and I wonder if AL can handle that case load.  0.3% fatality rate is only realistic with good care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 15, 2020, 04:00:49 PM
Quote from: jdb1234 on July 15, 2020, 02:45:08 PM
Alabama has issued a statewide mask order:

https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/gov-ivey-covid-update-today-press-conference-planned-for-11-am-watch-live.html

I wonder if it is too little too late. 

I don't think it's too late, but as other states have shown it will help bring down the cases over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 15, 2020, 04:00:49 PM
as other states have shown it will help bring down the cases over time.

Does anyone here know what caused the following:

Alaska – After having about three weeks of really low numbers in May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

Hawaii – After having about four weeks of really low numbers in May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

Montana – After having about four weeks of really low numbers in April-May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

(https://i.imgur.com/MfiXWDb.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 15, 2020, 04:17:22 PM
Quote from: LM117 on July 15, 2020, 02:20:47 PM
The governor of Oklahoma has tested positive.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/kevin-stitt-oklahoma-governor-coronavirus/index.html  (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/kevin-stitt-oklahoma-governor-coronavirus/index.html)

Oklahoma had its first day of over 1,000 new cases today as well. In the same press conference where Stitt announced he was carrying the virus, he also declined to enact any change to state policies such as a mandatory mask order or stay-at-home order, saying Oklahoma is doing better than other states and that shutting down again won't get rid of the virus.

Stitt was photographed in an Oklahoma City Walmart on Saturday not wearing a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:29:39 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 15, 2020, 10:15:32 AM
Your point that you can't get more positive results than tests is obvious, but to assume that means that the increase in positives is because of the increase in tests is incorrect.  If the virus weren't spreading, we wouldn't be finding those positives.  If you increase testing and the positives go up and the positivity rate goes down, that increase may be attributable to the increase in testing and may not reflect faster spread.  If you test more, and get more positives, and the positivity rate goes up, that means the actual increase in spread is more than the increase in testing.

Keep the math simple and assume the virus isn't spreading.  The public hears cases have gone up from 1,000 a day to 10,000 and they assume the virus is 10X worse than before.  The public is duped into believing the virus is out of control because the media focuses nearly all of their attention on daily case counts.  In the scenario below, 100% of the additional cases is due to increased testing.  That's why news headlines like "37 states are seeing rise in cases" is totally ambiguous.

April:
10,000 tests a day
1,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate

July:
100,000 tests a day
10,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 15, 2020, 04:33:43 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:29:39 PM
Keep the math simple and assume the virus isn't spreading.

It is, though, despite your desire to keep the math simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:34:05 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:29:39 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 15, 2020, 10:15:32 AM
Your point that you can't get more positive results than tests is obvious, but to assume that means that the increase in positives is because of the increase in tests is incorrect.  If the virus weren't spreading, we wouldn't be finding those positives.  If you increase testing and the positives go up and the positivity rate goes down, that increase may be attributable to the increase in testing and may not reflect faster spread.  If you test more, and get more positives, and the positivity rate goes up, that means the actual increase in spread is more than the increase in testing.

Keep the math simple and assume the virus isn't spreading.  The public hears cases have gone up from 1,000 a day to 10,000 and they assume the virus is 10X worse than before.  The public is duped into believing the virus is out of control because the media focuses nearly all of their attention on daily case counts.  In the scenario below, 100% of the additional cases is due to increased testing.  That's why news headlines like "37 states are seeing rise in cases" is totally ambiguous.

April:
10,000 tests a day
1,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate

July:
100,000 tests a day
10,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate



The scenario you are detailing above means the virus is spreading further.  This is bad.  The tests per day should be increasing, but the positivity rate should be decreasing.  Not staying the same.  This is what is happening in the countries that are handling this better than we are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

(https://i.imgur.com/jsHKmYa.png)



Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

(https://i.imgur.com/jsHKmYa.png)



Uh. No.  That's simply not the case.  If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

How could you anecdotally even say that?  It makes so sense.

It's like you know the names of statistics, but have no idea what they mean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 15, 2020, 05:04:02 PM
This is the same guy who believes that you can predict stocks by drawing flagging pennants on them or whatever the fuck. Best to not take him seriously, especially now that he's spreading dangerous misinformation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 05:08:08 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

To be fair, that statement isn't actually true.  Positive tests are only a subset of total tests, and therefore they are not an absolute measure of how widespread the virus is.

I'm not saying tradephoric is on the right track, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 05:11:28 PM
Here is the national overview of new tests, new cases, current hospitalizations, and new deaths.  While daily cases are 83% higher today than they were during April's peak, hospitalizations are down over 10% and deaths are down by over 70%.  Ultimately deaths are nowhere near where they were back in April which is really good news.  As bad as thing are in Florida right now, at least we aren't seeing 1000 deaths a day like we were in New York back in April (and both states have similar populations). 

(https://i.imgur.com/1lY1iPw.png)








Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 05:12:36 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 05:08:08 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

To be fair, that statement isn't actually true.  Positive tests are only a subset of total tests, and therefore they are not an absolute measure of how widespread the virus is.

I'm not saying tradephoric is on the right track, though.


You snipped my quote.  It was in the context of his example of increasing number of tests and increasing number of positives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 05:16:19 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 15, 2020, 05:04:02 PM
This is the same guy who believes that you can predict stocks by drawing flagging pennants on them or whatever the fuck. Best to not take him seriously, especially now that he's spreading dangerous misinformation.

It's called technical analysis.  You can focus on fundamentals but with all the tricks the FED is doing I'd argue the fundamentals are fundamentally flawed.  This is definitely a crazy world we live in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 05:19:40 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 05:12:36 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 05:08:08 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

To be fair, that statement isn't actually true.  Positive tests are only a subset of total tests, and therefore they are not an absolute measure of how widespread the virus is.

I'm not saying tradephoric is on the right track, though.

You snipped my quote.  It was in the context of his example of increasing number of tests and increasing number of positives.

I know the context.  But increasing daily positive does not, in fact, necessarily mean the virus is more widespread each day.  The number of total tests each day needs to be factored in as well.

I'm sure you know that full well.  I just wanted to point it out for clarity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 15, 2020, 05:27:29 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 05:11:28 PM
Here is the national overview of new tests, new cases, current hospitalizations, and new deaths.  While daily cases are 83% higher today than they were during April's peak, hospitalizations are down over 10% and deaths are down by over 70%.  Ultimately deaths are nowhere near where they were back in April which is really good news.  As bad as thing are in Florida right now, at least we aren't seeing 1000 deaths a day like we were in New York back in April (and both states have similar populations). 

(https://i.imgur.com/1lY1iPw.png)










Hospitalizations are only down 10% from the peak but are steeply on the rise right now. Many more people are suffering/dying right now than a month ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 15, 2020, 05:35:31 PM
Do we have any stats on reinfection in the US?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 15, 2020, 05:48:58 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:29:39 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 15, 2020, 10:15:32 AM
Your point that you can't get more positive results than tests is obvious, but to assume that means that the increase in positives is because of the increase in tests is incorrect.  If the virus weren't spreading, we wouldn't be finding those positives.  If you increase testing and the positives go up and the positivity rate goes down, that increase may be attributable to the increase in testing and may not reflect faster spread.  If you test more, and get more positives, and the positivity rate goes up, that means the actual increase in spread is more than the increase in testing.

Keep the math simple and assume the virus isn't spreading.  The public hears cases have gone up from 1,000 a day to 10,000 and they assume the virus is 10X worse than before.  The public is duped into believing the virus is out of control because the media focuses nearly all of their attention on daily case counts.  In the scenario below, 100% of the additional cases is due to increased testing.  That's why news headlines like "37 states are seeing rise in cases" is totally ambiguous.

April:
10,000 tests a day
1,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate

July:
100,000 tests a day
10,000 positive cases
10% positivity rate

The question is about whether the increase in testing reflects an increase in actual spread.  Your point is that the numbers are higher because of increased testing.  But the question remains: Is the virus spreading faster?  The answer is Yes.  The positive results reflect an increase in spread.  It's true that you can't have more positives than tests, but the increase in spread is greater than the increase in testing.  If we had no increase in testing, there would still be an increase in positive results because the positivity rate would go up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 15, 2020, 05:57:27 PM
IHME seems to be projecting stay at home orders in Florida and Texas (and possibly other states I didn't see).  The projection calls for a sharp drop in mobility in Texas starting August 14.  The projection says there will be 35,000 new infections and 226 deaths that day.  The number of daily infections immediately starts dropping, and the number of deaths starts dropping about two weeks later.

In Florida, they show in drastic decrease in mobility starting October 24.  On that day it shows 21,000 new infections and 169 deaths.  New infections start dropping, but the projection ends November 1, too soon to show a drop in deaths.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)

The governor of Texas has been mentioning the possibility of such an order.  What he seems to be doing could be seen as either testing the wind or softening the ground.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 06:36:31 PM
Michigan reported 666 new cases yesterday which is higher than the cases reported on April 19th.  Now the governor is talking about closing down the economy again.  The reality is the positivity rate in Michigan has dropped by 80% since April 19th (from 16.6% down to 3.3%).  The fundamental point is you can't just look at daily cases to determine how bad the situation is but that's all the media seems to focus on.  If Michigan had testing 3172 people yesterday they would have only reported 104 cases.  That's a lot less daunting sounding than 528 cases or 666 cases. 

April 19th :
3172 tests
528 positive cases
16.6% positivity rate

July 14th:
20,359
666 positive cases
3.3% positivity rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 15, 2020, 07:37:44 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 06:36:31 PMIf Michigan had testing 3172 people yesterday they would have only reported 104 cases. 
What makes you think so? I would say if they tested 3000 people, they would get  450 positives. Any reason to think otherwise?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 15, 2020, 07:37:56 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 06:36:31 PM
If Michigan had testing 3172 people yesterday they would have only reported 104 cases.  That's a lot less daunting sounding than 528 cases or 666 cases. 

1. As I said before, 6× as many tests means fewer than 6× as many positives. With fewer tests, the more obvious ones get tested.

2. They could have tested more people in order to avoid getting the Number of the Beast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wanderer2575 on July 15, 2020, 08:02:16 PM
Michigan is back to its semi-regular practice of posting highway death counts.  This message was on VMSs today.  Interesting that with three months of emptied roadways earlier, year-to-date highway deaths are down only 21 compared to last year.

(https://i.imgur.com/wQ7Kpc8.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:14:26 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 14, 2020, 05:02:10 PM
Actually, I haven't really been hearing much about China at all in at least a month.  Not about under-reporting the numbers, not about the virus leaking out of a lab, not about hygiene, not about anything.  This thread is the first I've heard about China in quite some time.

Same here. However, in this case I don't necessarily think no news is good news. We've just been pre-occupied with our own COVID situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:31:46 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 11:44:45 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 14, 2020, 05:31:09 PM
The idea that we wouldn't have already had a recession with 135,000 consumers suddenly removed from the economy over the space of five months is absurd. If your primary concern is the economy, you should favor virus containment issues, because the dead spend no money.
That's not the main reason the economy is bad.  In fact that is a very small reason it is bad.

Second that.

Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 11:35:07 AM
Not even close to the same numbers.  Weekly unemployment claims in the USA average between 200k and 250k per week.  These days, California alone exceeds that in initial claims.  For week ending 27-JUN-2020, there were 1,421,058 initial unemployment claims nationwide.

Not to mention that (a) there were about 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 (more than 20x the current COVID death toll), (b) many of those who have died were retired or not in the workforce to begin with, and (c) may have died anyways even without the pandemic.

I don't want to sound dismissive of the massive problem on our hands, but the actual reduction in population is a minuscule factor in the economic impact. Still important to note, though, that the death toll would have been much, much higher if we continued completely as normal, almost certainly to the point of meaningfully contributing to a recession on its own.

But let's not kid ourselves: there was literally no way to avoid a recession when this hit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NJRoadfan on July 15, 2020, 11:18:57 PM
Keep in mind that in the states where things are "under control" (mostly the northeast) have test positivity rates under 2% and R0 under 1. Lower daily case counts allows for effective contact tracing and containment.

Under federal guidelines, states shouldn't be reopening if their case positivity rate is over 5%, one reason why Michigan was concerned. Most of the places that are out of control are well above 5% and some close/at 10% at this point and should be rolling back into stage 1/lock down. Yeah, it sucks, but its clear folks in these states didn't take this seriously like the folks in areas that got hit hard early on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 16, 2020, 12:02:02 AM
Quote from: NJRoadfan on July 15, 2020, 11:18:57 PM
Keep in mind that in the states where things are "under control" (mostly the northeast) have test positivity rates under 2% and R0 under 1. Lower daily case counts allows for effective contact tracing and containment.

Under federal guidelines, states shouldn't be reopening if their case positivity rate is over 5%, one reason why Michigan was concerned. Most of the places that are out of control are well above 5% and some close/at 10% at this point and should be rolling back into stage 1/lock down. Yeah, it sucks, but its clear folks in these states didn't take this seriously like the folks in areas that got hit hard early on.

In Texas, the positivity rate is nearly 17%.  The highest it got in April was nearly 14%.  The Beaumont trauma service area, which has a population of 1.3 million, has no ICU beds, zero, available.  They have another 145 ventilators, but can't expand their ICU capacity because they don't have enough people to staff those beds for labor-intensive patients.  The Houston area with its 6.7 million population and 2,900 covid patients, has fewer than 100 ICU beds.  ICU availability in other areas, each with hundreds of thousands of people, are on the range of 14, 15, 2, or 1.  The Austin and San Antonio areas, with a combined population of 5.3 million and more than 2,000 covid patients, have a total of 136 ICU beds available.  The only stronghold is DFW, which is the most populated area because the two cities are combined, and has vast medical resources.  That 8 million plus region, which is backing up the rest of the state, is down to 263 ICU beds.  The patient load in that area is steady to moving slightly downward, although the ICU availability is also ticking downward (possibly because of importing patients from elsewhere).  The whole state is down to ICU capacity for another 853 people, and nearly a third of that is in one area (which is close to a corner and far from much of the state).  We are already right at the edge of a disaster, and if we were able to stop all transmission today, the numbers would keep going up for weeks.  That's what people don't understand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 16, 2020, 01:17:35 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
Does anyone here know what caused the following:

Alaska – After having about three weeks of really low numbers in May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

Hawaii – After having about four weeks of really low numbers in May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

Montana – After having about four weeks of really low numbers in April-May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

I don't know definitively, but the rebound in cases seen in these states may be attributable to one or more infected individuals traveling to the state from elsewhere and seeding a fresh outbreak.

Quote from: RobbieL2415 on July 15, 2020, 05:35:31 PM
Do we have any stats on reinfection in the US?

No, because in spite of panicked media not missing a beat in bringing the idea up given the opportunity, there has yet to be an actual confirmed instance of reinfection occurring anywhere.

What there have been have been cases where someone, after testing negative and being deemed recovered, has subsequently tested positive again at a later date. But this doesn't necessarily indicate reinfection. Some of these cases of positive test after being ruled recovered are simply false positives triggered by harmless leftover virus debris in the body. Others may be relapses, where the initial infection never actually went away, it just dropped below the threshold of detectability.

Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

https://i.imgur.com/jsHKmYa.png (https://i.imgur.com/jsHKmYa.png)

Yeah, look at your own graph. You may have drawn a nice little downward slope connecting the April peak to today with a straight line, but this completely ignores what the curve itself is doing. Notice how the national positivity rate bottomed out around June and has been going back up since. That's not the direction we want that trend to be going in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Bruce on July 16, 2020, 04:10:25 AM
Since the mask mandate (and empowerment to businesses to kick people out for not wearing them), I have noticed a major improvement in mask-wearing ettiquette in Seattle and surrounding suburbs. Some stores were down to under 50% of patrons wearing masks, and now non-maskers / virus-spreading heathens are very rare indoors.

Though even the rare ones get antsy about being told to wear masks. Perhaps instead of direct confrontation, a triple charge on any products or services they attempt to buy and a written message about mindfulness of others and basic public decency would be useful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 06:22:14 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:31:46 PM
Not to mention that (a) there were about 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 (more than 20x the current COVID death toll), (b) many of those who have died were retired or not in the workforce to begin with, and (c) may have died anyways even without the pandemic.

So what? That's still 137,419 people that, this time last year, were buying food, gas, and clothing. Now they are spending nothing. Assuming they spent only $4 per meal, that's 137,419× 3 × $4 = $1,649,028 per day or $601,895,220 per year that is no longer being spent by these people because they are no longer in the market for food.

Is it a good idea, economically, to allow the food sector take a $602 million hit? Even if that's not a substantial percentage of the economy, that's still $602 million that can't end up in other people's paychecks. People will lose jobs, and then they cut back their spending, meaning other people lose their jobs, and...

That's just the total for the 137,419 people that have died so far. If you do nothing, and the death toll doubles, so does the economic hit; now you're up to $1.2 billion/year in money not being spent feeding dead covid patients. Again, this is only food, these people were also driving cars, and buying socks, and paying taxes, and all the other usual non-discretionary spending every American engages in.

Clearly it's a better bet to go through short-term economic pain and institute sensible policies to keep people alive, so that when all is safe again, as many consumers are around to rejoin the economy as possible.


This is not the point I am making, but if you want to get really morbid about it, a 2016 USDOT memorandum values one human life at $9.6 million, for the purposes of calculating when a safety project is worth the cost. Using this figure, COVID-19 has cost the US $1,319,222,400,000 ($1.3 trillion) in human resources so far, or about 65% of the total amount spent on the war in Iraq.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 16, 2020, 06:54:26 AM
Quote from: NJRoadfan on July 15, 2020, 11:18:57 PM
Keep in mind that in the states where things are "under control" (mostly the northeast) have test positivity rates under 2% and R0 under 1. Lower daily case counts allows for effective contact tracing and containment.

Massachusetts seems to have R0 above 1 now, but just barely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 07:06:23 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 06:22:14 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:31:46 PM
Not to mention that (a) there were about 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 (more than 20x the current COVID death toll), (b) many of those who have died were retired or not in the workforce to begin with, and (c) may have died anyways even without the pandemic.

So what? That's still 137,419 people that, this time last year, were buying food, gas, and clothing. Now they are spending nothing. Assuming they spent only $4 per meal, that's 137,419× 3 × $4 = $1,649,028 per day or $601,895,220 per year that is no longer being spent by these people because they are no longer in the market for food.

Is it a good idea, economically, to allow the food sector take a $602 million hit? Even if that's not a substantial percentage of the economy, that's still $602 million that can't end up in other people's paychecks. People will lose jobs, and then they cut back their spending, meaning other people lose their jobs, and...

That's just the total for the 137,419 people that have died so far. If you do nothing, and the death toll doubles, so does the economic hit; now you're up to $1.2 billion/year in money not being spent feeding dead covid patients. Again, this is only food, these people were also driving cars, and buying socks, and paying taxes, and all the other usual non-discretionary spending every American engages in.

Clearly it's a better bet to go through short-term economic pain and institute sensible policies to keep people alive, so that when all is safe again, as many consumers are around to rejoin the economy as possible.


This is not the point I am making, but if you want to get really morbid about it, a 2016 USDOT memorandum values one human life at $9.6 million, for the purposes of calculating when a safety project is worth the cost. Using this figure, COVID-19 has cost the US $1,319,222,400,000 ($1.3 trillion) in human resources so far, or about 65% of the total amount spent on the war in Iraq.
A billion here, a billion there - and suddenly we're talking almost about some real money!
Human life cost is a touchy subject, you would drift into quite controversial things, borderline to criminal.
But 9.6M is too high of a number here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 07:22:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 07:06:23 AM
Human life cost is a touchy subject, you would drift into quite controversial things, borderline to criminal.

And yet I know there's at least one person on this forum who makes these calculations as his day job!

For what it's worth, the $9.6 million figure is not really meant for the purpose I used it there, but instead the figure is
Quote
defined as the additional cost that individuals would be willing to bear for improvements in safety (that is, reductions in risks) that, in the aggregate, reduce the expected number of fatalities by one.  This conventional terminology has often provoked misunderstanding on the part of both the public and decision-makers. What is involved is not the valuation of life as such, but the valuation of reductions in risks.

So a proper use of the figure would be that it would have been considered, in USDOT's eyes, cost-effective to spend $1.3 trillion on safety improvements to eliminate this crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 07:37:16 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 07:22:25 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 07:06:23 AM
Human life cost is a touchy subject, you would drift into quite controversial things, borderline to criminal.

And yet I know there's at least one person on this forum who makes these calculations as his day job!

For what it's worth, the $9.6 million figure is not really meant for the purpose I used it there, but instead the figure is
Quote
defined as the additional cost that individuals would be willing to bear for improvements in safety (that is, reductions in risks) that, in the aggregate, reduce the expected number of fatalities by one.  This conventional terminology has often provoked misunderstanding on the part of both the public and decision-makers. What is involved is not the valuation of life as such, but the valuation of reductions in risks.

So a proper use of the figure would be that it would have been considered, in USDOT's eyes, cost-effective to spend $1.3 trillion on safety improvements to eliminate this crisis.
Of course there are people who do this professionally. That doesn't mean this is not a delicate issue.
And again, even in US $2-3M is more realistic for average population sample.
However (and this is an example of touchy questions) covid mortality is not uniform. More than half of US deaths are in 75+ age group, and a metric health insurance would apply is $50k per year of quality life estimate. That still translates into millions per average life, but kids are more valuable than grandpas. That is true for rescue operations as well - kids saved first.
But in covid case such approach would cut total numbers big time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 16, 2020, 08:58:29 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 07:06:23 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 06:22:14 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:31:46 PM
Not to mention that (a) there were about 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 (more than 20x the current COVID death toll), (b) many of those who have died were retired or not in the workforce to begin with, and (c) may have died anyways even without the pandemic.

So what? That's still 137,419 people that, this time last year, were buying food, gas, and clothing. Now they are spending nothing. Assuming they spent only $4 per meal, that's 137,419× 3 × $4 = $1,649,028 per day or $601,895,220 per year that is no longer being spent by these people because they are no longer in the market for food.

Is it a good idea, economically, to allow the food sector take a $602 million hit? Even if that's not a substantial percentage of the economy, that's still $602 million that can't end up in other people's paychecks. People will lose jobs, and then they cut back their spending, meaning other people lose their jobs, and...

That's just the total for the 137,419 people that have died so far. If you do nothing, and the death toll doubles, so does the economic hit; now you're up to $1.2 billion/year in money not being spent feeding dead covid patients. Again, this is only food, these people were also driving cars, and buying socks, and paying taxes, and all the other usual non-discretionary spending every American engages in.

Clearly it's a better bet to go through short-term economic pain and institute sensible policies to keep people alive, so that when all is safe again, as many consumers are around to rejoin the economy as possible.


This is not the point I am making, but if you want to get really morbid about it, a 2016 USDOT memorandum values one human life at $9.6 million, for the purposes of calculating when a safety project is worth the cost. Using this figure, COVID-19 has cost the US $1,319,222,400,000 ($1.3 trillion) in human resources so far, or about 65% of the total amount spent on the war in Iraq.
A billion here, a billion there - and suddenly we're talking almost about some real money!
Human life cost is a touchy subject, you would drift into quite controversial things, borderline to criminal.
But 9.6M is too high of a number here.


The average household spends $3,000 a year in restaurants per year.  So that's about $400,000,000 less the dead would have spent in restaurants.

There are 660,000 restaurants in the United States.

So that's about $600 a year per restaurant.  In an industry where the average restaurant grosses over $1 million per year, it's not even close to being an issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 09:07:05 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 16, 2020, 08:58:29 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 07:06:23 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 06:22:14 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:31:46 PM
Not to mention that (a) there were about 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 (more than 20x the current COVID death toll), (b) many of those who have died were retired or not in the workforce to begin with, and (c) may have died anyways even without the pandemic.

So what? That's still 137,419 people that, this time last year, were buying food, gas, and clothing. Now they are spending nothing. Assuming they spent only $4 per meal, that's 137,419× 3 × $4 = $1,649,028 per day or $601,895,220 per year that is no longer being spent by these people because they are no longer in the market for food.

Is it a good idea, economically, to allow the food sector take a $602 million hit? Even if that's not a substantial percentage of the economy, that's still $602 million that can't end up in other people's paychecks. People will lose jobs, and then they cut back their spending, meaning other people lose their jobs, and...

That's just the total for the 137,419 people that have died so far. If you do nothing, and the death toll doubles, so does the economic hit; now you're up to $1.2 billion/year in money not being spent feeding dead covid patients. Again, this is only food, these people were also driving cars, and buying socks, and paying taxes, and all the other usual non-discretionary spending every American engages in.

Clearly it's a better bet to go through short-term economic pain and institute sensible policies to keep people alive, so that when all is safe again, as many consumers are around to rejoin the economy as possible.


This is not the point I am making, but if you want to get really morbid about it, a 2016 USDOT memorandum values one human life at $9.6 million, for the purposes of calculating when a safety project is worth the cost. Using this figure, COVID-19 has cost the US $1,319,222,400,000 ($1.3 trillion) in human resources so far, or about 65% of the total amount spent on the war in Iraq.
A billion here, a billion there - and suddenly we're talking almost about some real money!
Human life cost is a touchy subject, you would drift into quite controversial things, borderline to criminal.
But 9.6M is too high of a number here.


The average household spends $3,000 a year in restaurants per year.  So that's about $400,000,000 less the dead would have spent in restaurants.

There are 660,000 restaurants in the United States.

So that's about $600 a year per restaurant.  In an industry where the average restaurant grosses over $1 million per year, it's not even close to being an issue.
A different estimate of the same: we're talking about 1 of 2000 lives lost - 150k of 300M population (rough back of envelope values). That is 0.05% loss of customer base for an average business, or $500 of $1M.
Loss of disposable income, however, would be a much bigger problem for restaurants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 09:10:39 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 10, 2020, 04:25:30 PM
It's now quite likely that some pretty good husband-and-wife friends of ours have COVID-19.  The wife's mom works in health care and was unknowingly exposed to someone with it at work.  Before she found that out, though, our friends spent time over at their house.  Now our friends have several telltale symptoms–including cough, loss of smell, lethargy, fever.  Their symptoms are mild:  the wife, a teacher, even said there have been days in the past she's gone to work feeling worse than they do now.  They got tested for COVID-19 yesterday and are awaiting the results.

In between that time spent with family and finding all of this out, our friends were at church.

Before worship services were first shut down back in March, their daughter always used to run up to my wife when we walked in the door and give her a huge hug.  They have a special bond because my wife was her childcare provider when she was little.  Last Sunday, she said to my wife, "I told my parents I didn't want to come back to church because I can't give you a hug anymore".  My wife told her, "We're both wearing masks, so let's both go wash our hands and then we can hug".  And that's what they did.

The husband plays electric guitar in the church band, so I was up in the front with him on Sunday (I'm the drummer) but not really near him.  And everyone in the band had masks on the whole time we played music.

Because of all this, it was just announced that worship is canceled for this Sunday.

I've been saying for a while now that singing in church is probably the riskiest behavior we do during the week.  At a grocery store, we only briefly pass by people and most of our time is spent away from others.  But, singing in church, we're surrounded by people for a prolonged time–people who because they're singing are naturally expelling more breath than usual, people whose Monday—Saturday social interactions we don't really know much about.  Sure, the rows are now spread six feet apart, but still.

Well, our friends' COVID tests came back negative.  However, they're still going to complete the rest of their 14 days at home before venturing out again, just in case the tests were false negatives.  Their symptoms were just too striking to ignore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 09:14:29 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 16, 2020, 01:17:35 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
Does anyone here know what caused the following:

Alaska – After having about three weeks of really low numbers in May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

Hawaii – After having about four weeks of really low numbers in May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

Montana – After having about four weeks of really low numbers in April-May, subsequently bouncing back up ever since then?

I don't know definitively, but the rebound in cases seen in these states may be attributable to one or more infected individuals traveling to the state from elsewhere and seeding a fresh outbreak.

Do you have any evidence that's what happened?  I wasn't really interested in purely hypothetical reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
tradephoric:

Shown below is a simple illustration of how increased testing with level positivity rates doesn't mean the virus isn't spreading.  In the illustration, testing increased tenfold, but the infected population size still grew twofold.

(https://i.imgur.com/F95mv8V.png)

But, as has been pointed out, more tests become available all the time and, with more tests available, a larger percentage of them are given to asymptomatic people.  Because symptomatic people are more likely to be infected than asymptomatic people, their presence in the sample size skews the results.

(https://i.imgur.com/az9SNLa.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 16, 2020, 10:00:04 AM
Focus on hospitalization rates. That eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time. Regardless of testing volumes and numbers of positive tests and positivity rates, people are going to be hospitalized when they reach a certain level of illness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 10:14:33 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
tradephoric:

Shown below is a simple illustration of how increased testing with level positivity rates doesn't mean the virus isn't spreading.  In the illustration, testing increased tenfold, but the infected population size still grew twofold.

(https://i.imgur.com/F95mv8V.png)

I don't understand why the total infected population just arbitrarily increased from 100k to 200k in this chart.  How did you come up with this doubling? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 10:51:14 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 10:14:33 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
tradephoric:

Shown below is a simple illustration of how increased testing with level positivity rates doesn't mean the virus isn't spreading.  In the illustration, testing increased tenfold, but the infected population size still grew twofold.

(https://i.imgur.com/F95mv8V.png)


I don't understand why the total infected population just arbitrarily increased from 100k to 200k in this chart.  How did you come up with this doubling? 

It was a purely hypothetical illustration, to show that actual infections can indeed be going up even as testing increases and positivity rates remain steady.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:07:32 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 16, 2020, 10:00:04 AM
Focus on hospitalization rates. That eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time. Regardless of testing volumes and numbers of positive tests and positivity rates, people are going to be hospitalized when they reach a certain level of illness.

I agree just tell that to USA Today.  They published an article on July 15th with the headline "Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now".  The article details how 32 states are adding coronavirus cases at a rate far worse than the Spring.  But at no point in the article do they mention how much additional testing has taken place since the Spring. 

They could have just as easily wrote an article entitled "Spring's testing capacity was bad, but 50 states are seeing testing at a rate far higher than the Spring".   Of course an article focusing entirely on testing data would tell you nothing about cases, but then again an article focusing entirely on daily cases tells you nothing about testing.

Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/15/florida-texas-not-only-states-covid-spike-32-pass-spring-record/5442350002/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 16, 2020, 11:11:52 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:07:32 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 16, 2020, 10:00:04 AM
Focus on hospitalization rates. That eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time. Regardless of testing volumes and numbers of positive tests and positivity rates, people are going to be hospitalized when they reach a certain level of illness.

I agree just tell that to USA Today.  They published an article on July 15th with the headline "Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now".  The article details how 32 states are adding coronavirus cases at a rate far worse than the Spring.  But at no point in the article do they mention how much additional testing has taken place since the Spring. 

They could have just as easily wrote an article entitled "Spring's testing capacity was bad, but 50 states are seeing testing at a rate far higher than the Spring".   Of course an article focusing entirely on testing data would tell you nothing about cases, but then again an article focusing entirely on daily cases tells you nothing about testing.

Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/15/florida-texas-not-only-states-covid-spike-32-pass-spring-record/5442350002/

That article does (briefly) mention hospitalization rates, and even though not mentioned much, hospitalization rates are skyrocketing in most of those 32 states, so the increase in cases is most certainly not just because of increased testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 11:13:56 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:07:32 AM

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 16, 2020, 10:00:04 AM
Focus on hospitalization rates. That eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time. Regardless of testing volumes and numbers of positive tests and positivity rates, people are going to be hospitalized when they reach a certain level of illness.

I agree just tell that to USA Today.  They published an article on July 15th with the headline "Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now".  The article details how 32 states are adding coronavirus cases at a rate far worse than the Spring.  But at no point in the article do they mention how much additional testing has taken place since the Spring. 

They could have just as easily wrote an article entitled "Spring's testing capacity was bad, but 50 states are seeing testing at a rate far higher than the Spring".   Of course an article focusing entirely on testing data would tell you nothing about cases, but then again an article focusing entirely on daily cases tells you nothing about testing.

Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/15/florida-texas-not-only-states-covid-spike-32-pass-spring-record/5442350002/

Huh?  You agree that it's better to focus on hospitalizations, but your proposed fix to USA Today's reporting has nothing to do with hospitalizations?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 16, 2020, 11:17:31 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:07:32 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 16, 2020, 10:00:04 AM
Focus on hospitalization rates. That eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time. Regardless of testing volumes and numbers of positive tests and positivity rates, people are going to be hospitalized when they reach a certain level of illness.

I agree just tell that to USA Today.  They published an article on July 15th with the headline "Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now".  The article details how 32 states are adding coronavirus cases at a rate far worse than the Spring.  But at no point in the article do they mention how much additional testing has taken place since the Spring. 

They could have just as easily wrote an article entitled "Spring's testing capacity was bad, but 50 states are seeing testing at a rate far higher than the Spring".   Of course an article focusing entirely on testing data would tell you nothing about cases, but then again an article focusing entirely on daily cases tells you nothing about testing.

Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/15/florida-texas-not-only-states-covid-spike-32-pass-spring-record/5442350002/


Do you simply ignore arguments that point out how bad you are misreading these stats and what they imply?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: paulthemapguy on July 16, 2020, 11:20:24 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 15, 2020, 05:08:08 PM

To be fair, that statement isn't actually true.  Positive tests are only a subset of total tests, and therefore they are not an absolute measure of how widespread the virus is.

This made absolutely no sense.
In addition, everything tradephoric says makes absolutely no sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 11:21:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 16, 2020, 11:17:31 AM
Do you simply ignore arguments ... ?

Wait, are tradephoric and Fritzowl really the same guy, and he's been trolling us all along?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 16, 2020, 11:27:58 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 06:22:14 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:31:46 PM
Not to mention that (a) there were about 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 (more than 20x the current COVID death toll), (b) many of those who have died were retired or not in the workforce to begin with, and (c) may have died anyways even without the pandemic.

So what? That's still 137,419 people that, this time last year, were buying food, gas, and clothing. Now they are spending nothing. Assuming they spent only $4 per meal, that's 137,419× 3 × $4 = $1,649,028 per day or $601,895,220 per year that is no longer being spent by these people because they are no longer in the market for food.

So, I don't think $601 million - or even triple or quadruple that - is very significant in a $20.5 trillion economy. Leaving aside the validity of the figures for a minute, roughly 20 times that amount of people (and thus, money) comes and goes due to the natural life and death cycle every single year.

I don't want to de-emphasize the death toll, because it is hugely problematic and we have not done well as a country in handling this virus, but the lost consumers, on their own, are a drop in the bucket from an economic perspective; obviously, it's a much different story from a social and public health perspective.


Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 06:22:14 AMClearly it's a better bet to go through short-term economic pain and institute sensible policies to keep people alive, so that when all is safe again, as many consumers are around to rejoin the economy as possible.

No disagreement on that point. Even though our response has been imperfect on many levels, I think the death toll would have been many, many times higher if there was no public response at all and everyone continued as normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:28:14 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 10:51:14 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 10:14:33 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
tradephoric:

Shown below is a simple illustration of how increased testing with level positivity rates doesn't mean the virus isn't spreading.  In the illustration, testing increased tenfold, but the infected population size still grew twofold.

(https://i.imgur.com/F95mv8V.png)


I don't understand why the total infected population just arbitrarily increased from 100k to 200k in this chart.  How did you come up with this doubling? 

It was a purely hypothetical illustration, to show that actual infections can indeed be going up even as testing increases and positivity rates remain steady.

I'm not trying to be critical but from what i see the only reason the actual infections went up from 100k to 200k in your chart is because you arbitrarily inputted them.  If a region has 1.25 million people and a positivity rate of 8%, the actual total infected population is going to equal 100k whether they are testing 10k people a day or 100k people a day.  Why did it jump to 200k in that chart you set up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 11:39:29 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:28:14 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 10:51:14 AM

Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 10:14:33 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 09:53:20 AM
tradephoric:

Shown below is a simple illustration of how increased testing with level positivity rates doesn't mean the virus isn't spreading.  In the illustration, testing increased tenfold, but the infected population size still grew twofold.

(https://i.imgur.com/F95mv8V.png)


I don't understand why the total infected population just arbitrarily increased from 100k to 200k in this chart.  How did you come up with this doubling? 

It was a purely hypothetical illustration, to show that actual infections can indeed be going up even as testing increases and positivity rates remain steady.

I'm not trying to be critical but from what i see the only reason the actual infections went up from 100k to 200k in your chart is because you arbitrarily inputted them.  If a region has 1.25 million people and a positivity rate of 8%, the actual total infected population is going to equal 100k whether they are testing 10k people a day or 100k people a day.  Why did it jump to 200k in that chart you set up?

No.  If a region has 1.25 million people and a positivity rate of 8%, then you still have no idea what the total infected population is.  Positivity rate is how many people test positive out of the total tested population, not out of the total population.

You're right that the only reason total infected population increased from 100k to 200k in my illustration is that I arbitrarily did that.  But you, by the same token, are being just as arbitrary in claiming that total infections are going this way or that based on the same metrics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:40:52 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 11:13:56 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:07:32 AM

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 16, 2020, 10:00:04 AM
Focus on hospitalization rates. That eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time. Regardless of testing volumes and numbers of positive tests and positivity rates, people are going to be hospitalized when they reach a certain level of illness.

I agree just tell that to USA Today.  They published an article on July 15th with the headline "Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now".  The article details how 32 states are adding coronavirus cases at a rate far worse than the Spring.  But at no point in the article do they mention how much additional testing has taken place since the Spring. 

They could have just as easily wrote an article entitled "Spring's testing capacity was bad, but 50 states are seeing testing at a rate far higher than the Spring".   Of course an article focusing entirely on testing data would tell you nothing about cases, but then again an article focusing entirely on daily cases tells you nothing about testing.

Spring's coronavirus surge was bad, but 32 states are doing much worse now
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/15/florida-texas-not-only-states-covid-spike-32-pass-spring-record/5442350002/

Huh?  You agree that it's better to focus on hospitalizations, but your proposed fix to USA Today's reporting has nothing to do with hospitalizations?

My point wasn't THAT difficult to comprehend.  I agree with cabiness42 that looking at hospitalization rates is a better metric to use than daily case counts as it eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time.  But if USA Today is going to write an article focused on case counts, they really should provide that data with context in regards to testing.  It would be like writing an article arguing that automobiles were safer 100 years ago because motor vehicle fatalities were a fraction of what they are today (never mind that fatalities per 100 million VMT have dropped by 95% over the past 100 years).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 16, 2020, 11:47:58 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:40:52 AM
I agree with cabiness42 that looking at hospitalization rates is a better metric to use than daily case counts as it eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time.

and hospitalization rates are up sharply over the past couple months, therefore infection rates are up sharply over the past couple months regardless of how much testing is being done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 16, 2020, 12:02:21 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 11:21:10 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 16, 2020, 11:17:31 AM
Do you simply ignore arguments ... ?

Wait, are tradephoric and Fritzowl really the same guy, and he's been trolling us all along?

tradephoric tries to fight back criticism. FritzOwl ignores it entirely; I have never seen a single "you're wrong" statement from him.

I also think they live in different parts of the country.

Last, why would FritzOwl register before tradephoric if they're the same person?

I've done some research, and unless FritzOwl doesn't actually live in California, he's not an alternate account of anyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 12:07:03 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 16, 2020, 11:47:58 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 11:40:52 AM
I agree with cabiness42 that looking at hospitalization rates is a better metric to use than daily case counts as it eliminates any bias from the differing volumes of testing over time.

and hospitalization rates are up sharply over the past couple months, therefore infection rates are up sharply over the past couple months regardless of how much testing is being done.

Nationally, the percentage positive rate began rising on June 16th.   I don't dispute that.  Still that USA Today article focuses on daily cases to write a narrative that the virus is more widespread today than it was in the Spring.  That's just not reality when looking at either the case positivity rate or the hospitalization rate.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 12:09:25 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 12:07:03 PM
Nationally, the percentage positive rate began rising on June 16th.   I don't dispute that.  Still that USA Today article focuses on daily cases to write a narrative that the virus is more widespread today than it was in the Spring.  That's just not reality when looking at either the case positivity rate or the hospitalization rate.

If the virus is not more widespread, then how do you explain the increase in hospitalizations?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 16, 2020, 12:14:18 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 12:09:25 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 12:07:03 PM
Nationally, the percentage positive rate began rising on June 16th.   I don't dispute that.  Still that USA Today article focuses on daily cases to write a narrative that the virus is more widespread today than it was in the Spring.  That's just not reality when looking at either the case positivity rate or the hospitalization rate.

If the virus is not more widespread, then how do you explain the increase in hospitalizations?

Sounds like a bit of splitting hairs. Hospitalizations, at least nationally, are still below the highest rates from the spring, but have also been increasing sharply over the past month.

Some individual states do have higher hospitalizations than the spring, but nationally we aren't there . . . yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 12:23:04 PM
To be clear I've been focusing on the USA Today article that compares the daily cases today to the daily cases in the Spring.  Using that time-frame, the hospitalization rate has gone down roughly 10% since its peak in April (even after a big spike over the past month).  It's just misleading for the media to report daily cases without putting context to how much additional testing has taken place.  These selective news articles cause the public to believe things are 10x worse than reality.   

(https://i.imgur.com/1lY1iPw.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 16, 2020, 12:28:38 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 16, 2020, 11:27:58 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 06:22:14 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 15, 2020, 10:31:46 PMNot to mention that (a) there were about 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 (more than 20x the current COVID death toll), (b) many of those who have died were retired or not in the workforce to begin with, and (c) may have died anyways even without the pandemic.

So what? That's still 137,419 people that, this time last year, were buying food, gas, and clothing. Now they are spending nothing. Assuming they spent only $4 per meal, that's 137,419× 3 × $4 = $1,649,028 per day or $601,895,220 per year that is no longer being spent by these people because they are no longer in the market for food.

So, I don't think $601 million - or even triple or quadruple that - is very significant in a $20.5 trillion economy. Leaving aside the validity of the figures for a minute, roughly 20 times that amount of people (and thus, money) comes and goes due to the natural life and death cycle every single year.

I don't want to de-emphasize the death toll, because it is hugely problematic and we have not done well as a country in handling this virus, but the lost consumers, on their own, are a drop in the bucket from an economic perspective; obviously, it's a much different story from a social and public health perspective.

What actually drives the implosion in demand is not people dying and thus no longer spending their discretionary income on restaurants etc., but rather healthy people (the vast majority of whom, based on our experience of 20th-century pandemics like the 1918 flu, will not contract the illness) staying at home and not spending money because they do not wish to court exposure to the virus without good reason.  It isn't really possible for the restaurant sector as a whole to respond to this risk aversion by going from dine-in to takeout--there is inevitably a large population of restaurants that depend on dine-in.

Economists' term for the kind of estimation USDOT does to come up with the value of a human life is called hedonic pricing.  It is tricky to do because it is based on willingness to pay, which varies by context.  It is also not, in any absolute sense, the value of a human life, or necessarily even correlated to disability-adjusted life years, which is what you are talking about when prioritizing kids higher than grandpas for rescue operations.  Its main use is as a number to rank different options for spending to save lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 16, 2020, 12:41:14 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 12:23:04 PM
To be clear I've been focusing on the USA Today article that compares the daily cases today to the daily cases in the Spring.  Using that time-frame, the hospitalization rate has gone down roughly 10% since its peak in April (even after a big spike over the past month).  It's just misleading for the media to report daily cases without putting context to how much additional testing has taken place.  These selective news articles cause the public to believe things are 10x worse than reality.   

(https://i.imgur.com/1lY1iPw.png)

If you look at the numbers of cases and hospitalizations, there is a strong (near 100%) correlation to when those graphs turn down and then back up. It appears that you are focused in on the fact that the number of cases has shot well past the previous peak and the number of hospitalizations has yet to do so, and concluded that testing is the primary reason why.

The fact that hospitalizations have gone back up so steeply indicate that while the magnitude of the increase in cases can be attributed to testing, the underlying hospitalization rates indicate that the raw number of cases is not nearly as horrible a proxy for the real seriousness of the current situation as you are claiming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jemacedo9 on July 16, 2020, 01:00:20 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 12:23:04 PM
To be clear I've been focusing on the USA Today article that compares the daily cases today to the daily cases in the Spring.  Using that time-frame, the hospitalization rate has gone down roughly 10% since its peak in April (even after a big spike over the past month).  It's just misleading for the media to report daily cases without putting context to how much additional testing has taken place.  These selective news articles cause the public to believe things are 10x worse than reality.   

(https://i.imgur.com/1lY1iPw.png)


Yes...hospitalizations are down compared to April.  Tradephoric is right.  FOR NOW.

But just wait a week or two or so.  The current trajectory is that that statement above will no longer be true.
The question is...why is the trend of hospitalizations going up?  And then, how do you stop it, if you can?

And...you can't take a long-term downward trend as meaning anything if there are erratic ups and downs and the latest shorter term trend is oppositely up.

So stop cherry-picking data to fit your narrative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 16, 2020, 02:59:04 PM
Arkansas has just mandated masks beginning Monday (7/20)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 03:03:02 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 16, 2020, 02:59:04 PM
Arkansas has just mandated masks beginning Monday (7/20)
Looks like many states are starting to catch on. Florida I'm waiting for you...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Florida government should be commended for keeping deaths down to a low level compared to what we saw in New York back in April.  For states with nearly identical populations we aren't seeing anywhere close to the 1,000 deaths a day like we saw in New York.  I know people will say deaths lag, but does anybody believe Florida will see a 10 fold increase in average daily deaths over the next several weeks (which is what would need to happen before deaths become comparable between the two states).  It's amazing how much of a media love fest there is for Andrew Cuomo when so many New York residents died under his watch and how much disdain there is for Ron DeSantis when the deaths out of Florida are much much lower than New York.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 03:25:48 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Florida government should be commended for keeping deaths down to a low level compared to what we saw in New York back in April. 

At least some of that has to do with the fact that half the cases early on were nursing home and assisted living residents, whereas younger and healthier people are getting the virus now.  State governments can't necessarily be commended for that, because they weren't necessarily responsible for the demographic shift.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 16, 2020, 03:27:27 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 03:03:02 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 16, 2020, 02:59:04 PM
Arkansas has just mandated masks beginning Monday (7/20)
Looks like many states are starting to catch on. Florida I'm waiting for you...

And then...there's Georgia (https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-governor-extends-coronavirus-restrictions/75SLQWLJ6FBULIGVEDMNSY5M64/). (Note: the URL doesn't tell the whole story here.)

My opinion on the relationship between the state and local governments on these matters is unwelcome here, as I've already been made aware, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 16, 2020, 03:30:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 03:25:48 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Florida government should be commended for keeping deaths down to a low level compared to what we saw in New York back in April. 

At least some of that has to do with the fact that half the cases early on were nursing home and assisted living residents, whereas younger and healthier people are getting the virus now.  State governments can't necessarily be commended for that, because they weren't necessarily responsible for the demographic shift.

The hospitalization rate in Florida suggests that the death rate isn't going to stay low for very long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 03:34:54 PM
Question:  Is there really a good reason to toss your face mask in the laundry every night?

I have three masks, and I cycle through them every three days.  Considering that the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn't remain viable on fabric for two days, what advantage would there really be to washing them instead of just leaving them out for 2-3 days between uses?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on July 16, 2020, 03:35:35 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 15, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

CVS, Target, Kroger, Kohl's, and Best Buy have joined the club.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html)

_________

In other news, refrigerated trucks are heading to Arizona and Texas.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 16, 2020, 03:50:22 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 03:34:54 PM
Question:  Is there really a good reason to toss your face mask in the laundry every night?

I don't have the answer, but the question never even occurred to me because I've been using the disposable style of masks and discarding them after maybe 3 or 4 uses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 16, 2020, 04:03:43 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Florida government should be commended for keeping deaths down to a low level compared to what we saw in New York back in April. 

No they shouldn't.

It's the state government's irresponsible opening that has caused cases and hospitalizations to rise.  They don't get to take credit for what doctors and other health care professionals are doing to save lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 16, 2020, 04:11:59 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Florida government should be commended for keeping deaths down to a low level compared to what we saw in New York back in April.  For states with nearly identical populations we aren't seeing anywhere close to the 1,000 deaths a day like we saw in New York.  I know people will say deaths lag, but does anybody believe Florida will see a 10 fold increase in average daily deaths over the next several weeks (which is what would need to happen before deaths become comparable between the two states).  It's amazing how much of a media love fest there is for Andrew Cuomo when so many New York residents died under his watch and how much disdain there is for Ron DeSantis when the deaths out of Florida are much much lower than New York.

This is 100% solely due to New York, and the rest of the country, trying to figure out how to handle the virus early on. 

Also, as in many cases, there is no comparing NYC to the rest of the country.  You simply don't have the intense population within a small area elsewhere like you do in NYC. 

For all your cherrypicking of datasets and graphics, I'm surprised you would let this try to sneak by everyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 04:24:08 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 16, 2020, 04:11:59 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Florida government should be commended for keeping deaths down to a low level compared to what we saw in New York back in April.  For states with nearly identical populations we aren't seeing anywhere close to the 1,000 deaths a day like we saw in New York.  I know people will say deaths lag, but does anybody believe Florida will see a 10 fold increase in average daily deaths over the next several weeks (which is what would need to happen before deaths become comparable between the two states).  It's amazing how much of a media love fest there is for Andrew Cuomo when so many New York residents died under his watch and how much disdain there is for Ron DeSantis when the deaths out of Florida are much much lower than New York.

This is 100% solely due to New York, and the rest of the country, trying to figure out how to handle the virus early on. 

Also, as in many cases, there is no comparing NYC to the rest of the country.  You simply don't have the intense population within a small area elsewhere like you do in NYC. 

For all your cherrypicking of datasets and graphics, I'm surprised you would let this try to sneak by everyone.
One thing about NY death rate - and many people believe that is direct fault of Cuomo - is the way nursing homes were forced to accept sick patients. Quite a few issues, and hopefully some lessons leaned.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/14/gov-cuomos-report-on-nursing-home-deaths-ripped-by-experts/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:31:10 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 04:24:08 PM

Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 16, 2020, 04:11:59 PM

Quote from: tradephoric on July 16, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Florida government should be commended for keeping deaths down to a low level compared to what we saw in New York back in April.  For states with nearly identical populations we aren't seeing anywhere close to the 1,000 deaths a day like we saw in New York.  I know people will say deaths lag, but does anybody believe Florida will see a 10 fold increase in average daily deaths over the next several weeks (which is what would need to happen before deaths become comparable between the two states).  It's amazing how much of a media love fest there is for Andrew Cuomo when so many New York residents died under his watch and how much disdain there is for Ron DeSantis when the deaths out of Florida are much much lower than New York.

This is 100% solely due to New York, and the rest of the country, trying to figure out how to handle the virus early on. 

Also, as in many cases, there is no comparing NYC to the rest of the country.  You simply don't have the intense population within a small area elsewhere like you do in NYC. 

For all your cherrypicking of datasets and graphics, I'm surprised you would let this try to sneak by everyone.

One thing about NY death rate - and many people believe that is direct fault of Cuomo - is the way nursing homes were forced to accept sick patients. Quite a few issues, and hopefully some lessons leaned.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/14/gov-cuomos-report-on-nursing-home-deaths-ripped-by-experts/

Yep, which tradephoric himself pointed out a month and a half ago.

Quote from: kphoger on June 01, 2020, 02:43:58 PM

Quote from: tradephoric on June 01, 2020, 02:11:57 PM
... sounds like a better strategy than what some governors have been doing - allowing confirmed coronavirus cases to mingle with the most vulnerable populations inside nursing homes while forcing the non-vulnerable to shelter at home.

Highlighted below are those states I've seen reference to requiring long-term care facilities to accept patients with the virus.  Of course, saying that the one necessarily led to the other could be a case of post hoc ergo propter hoc, but I provide the numbers for you nevertheless.

(https://i.imgur.com/um1Wht5.jpg)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
Quote from: LM117 on July 16, 2020, 03:35:35 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 15, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

CVS, Target, Kroger, Kohl's, and Best Buy have joined the club.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html)

_________

In other news, refrigerated trucks are heading to Arizona and Texas.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html)
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 16, 2020, 04:40:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.

In theory, everything, the level of lockdown, mask requirements, social gathering requirements, etc., should vary by county depending on population density and recent infection rates.

In practice, people everywhere are going to default to following the the rules of the least-restrictive county that is anywhere near them even if their own county is more restrictive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 16, 2020, 04:56:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.
It's not that much a function of a county as a function of crowd size.  Things can go from zero to (anti)hero pretty quick.
Store with 10s people inside? Mask regardless of where it is. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 16, 2020, 04:58:46 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 16, 2020, 04:40:43 PM
In practice, people everywhere are going to default to following the the rules of the least-restrictive county that is anywhere near them even if their own county is more restrictive.

That was not the case here. In April, when we had high case counts, people were following the rules quite well. (They still are, but I'm in a low-case area now.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 16, 2020, 05:53:10 PM
I heard a commentator say that calling Texas a "hotspot" is like calling the sun a hotspot.  We do seem to be making some progress.  Daily cases and the positivity rate are still high, but hospitalizations are leveling off.  Of people in hospitals, more of them are moving into ICUs, and much of the state has severe shortages of capacity.  And the death numbers are going up.  Late-stage numbers (ICU and deaths) are rising, but early and mid-stage numbers (infections and hospitalizations) are steady.  The daily cases chart is wavy, and weekly, with each week's numbers forming a plateau higher than the week before, but this week's plateau is only a little bit higher than last week's.  We might be reaching the peak of the wave in early numbers.  If so, the spike in late-stage bad outcomes is still ahead, and some cities and counties are bringing in refrigerated trailers to serve as makeshift morgues.

San Antonio has five trailers.

https://www.expressnews.com/coronavirus/article/San-Antonio-officials-secure-5-refrigerated-15412726.php (https://www.expressnews.com/coronavirus/article/San-Antonio-officials-secure-5-refrigerated-15412726.php)

Cameron and Hidalgo Counties are sharing a trailer, and Dallas had to use a truck, which the interview makes it seem like they own and keep as a backup.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 16, 2020, 06:27:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 03:34:54 PM
Question:  Is there really a good reason to toss your face mask in the laundry every night?

I have three masks, and I cycle through them every three days.  Considering that the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn't remain viable on fabric for two days, what advantage would there really be to washing them instead of just leaving them out for 2-3 days between uses?

Depends, at least in part, on whether you've sneezed or coughed into them. If so, your main concern isn't about any virus on the outside of the mask, but all the crud accumulating inside. True, that stuff came from inside you originally (and it's good the mask stopped it from spreading to other people), but still.

I have a few cloth masks, but still have a supply of non-washable disposables, which go into the trash rather than the laundry hamper.

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

As allergic as I am to anything "nationwide" (as stated by kphoger), it would help travelers who are confused about mask requirements varying by jurisdiction. At rest areas in Maryland, I saw out-of-state travelers perplexed by the mask requirement posted outside the restrooms. Most of them just went into the restrooms (sometimes using single-user "family restrooms" where available) anyway, rather than go back to their cars to pull out a mask if they had one.

At least with stores under mask requirements, often someone will be around to give you a disposable mask, or sell you a cloth one. Walmarts tend to have a bin near entrances, with sometimes clever cloth masks. Even though I didn't need it right away, I bought a "Keep Calm and Stay 6 Feet Away" mask for future use.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 06:31:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.
Maybe not nationwide, but in counties throughout America with some amount of cases. I do agree that this matter might be better left to the states, but if that's the case states should be allowed to close their borders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 16, 2020, 06:38:53 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 06:31:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.
Maybe not nationwide, but in counties throughout America with some amount of cases. I do agree that this matter might be better left to the states, but if that's the case states should be allowed to close their borders.

Weren't some kind of doing that early on?  I seem to recall some Tennessee/North Carolina State Lines out in the Blue Ridge Mountains got some Jersey Barriers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 16, 2020, 07:08:44 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.

That's probably reasonable, though from my perspective that's a purely hypothetical situation as there are no such counties in my state. Then again, I also think counties with 5-digit case totals should probably at least be permitted to pass such a requirement, but some state governors apparently disagree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
A mask order still makes some degree of sense in a zero-case county, because an infected visitor could bring it in and not make it a zero-case county anymore. Having a mask order means that visitor would have to stay masked, protecting the residents from exposure.

(Early on in the pandemic, there was a case of an asymptomatic Tulsa preacher traveling to rural southwest Oklahoma nursing homes to give sermons, and being the first to introduce the virus to that region. The preacher later died of the virus himself.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: 3467 on July 16, 2020, 07:41:37 PM
The inventor of the n95 said if you have more than one set it aside and the virus and bacteria it caught will just die out. That was on CNN. Surgical masks are common enough to toss.
Illinois has a huge amount of testing and I know one little county where everyone celebrated no active cases by ditching their masks. Only problem even though most wear them while traveling they still have these things we talk about called roads and they are 40 miles from a hot spot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 16, 2020, 09:14:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.

Regardless, a nationwide order isn't really consistent with how federalism works.

The feds have the authority to mandate masks, if they're so inclined, in places and circumstances that fall under their direct jurisdiction - so, for example, they could mandate everyone wear masks in post offices, on airplanes, on military bases, etc. And they could, through OSHA, mandate all employees wear masks while at work. But it's not really their place to make rules about what customers do while shopping, dining, etc. - this is under the purview of states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 09:21:10 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 16, 2020, 06:38:53 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 06:31:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.
Maybe not nationwide, but in counties throughout America with some amount of cases. I do agree that this matter might be better left to the states, but if that's the case states should be allowed to close their borders.

Weren't some kind of doing that early on?  I seem to recall some Tennessee/North Carolina State Lines out in the Blue Ridge Mountains got some Jersey Barriers.
I think closing state borders might be illegal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 16, 2020, 11:02:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
A mask order still makes some degree of sense in a zero-case county, because an infected visitor could bring it in and not make it a zero-case county anymore. Having a mask order means that visitor would have to stay masked, protecting the residents from exposure.

And, how can we be sure it really is a zero-case county? Just because no one has an official positive test result doesn't mean no one has it. People are traveling back and forth between counties (to work, to shop, to visit friends or family) all the time. They could pick it up anywhere, and if they're asymptomatic, they likely won't bother to get tested.

And even if they do have symptoms, there are a ton of reasons not to get tested:
(a) they think the virus isn't spreading in their area, so they write it off and don't bother
(b) they don't personally know anyone who has been tested, and are dissuaded by the "PITA" factor and uncertainty of how it works
(c) they might lack information on how and where to get tested, considering their county probably hasn't administered many tests
(d) they fear being the first positive case in the county

...just to name a few.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 07:53:34 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 15, 2020, 07:37:44 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 06:36:31 PMIf Michigan had testing 3172 people yesterday they would have only reported 104 cases. 
What makes you think so? I would say if they tested 3000 people, they would get  450 positives. Any reason to think otherwise?

Well my original 104 estimate was based on the fact that there has been an 85% drop in test positivity in Michigan from April 19th to today (16.6% down to 3.3%).  But you can also estimate how many people would test positive based on hospitalizations.  Since April 19th the Covid hospitalizations in Michigan have dropped 85% from 3,500 hospitalizations down to about 500.  So if 3172 tests resulted in 528 positive cases back in April, then you would expect 3172 tests performed today to result in roughly 75 cases (or 15% of 528). 

(https://i.imgur.com/2cHnj72.png)

Whether you focus on test positivity rate or hospitalizations, things in Michigan are magnitudes better than what they were in April.  Yet the media has an obsession with daily cases and only wants to focus on how they are rising now.  I guess reporting that both the test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down by over 80% isn't sexy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 17, 2020, 07:59:11 AM
Michigan has gone way down and then started going slightly up. However, CA, AZ, TX, MS, AL, and FL (and probably several others) are at their peak, way above what they were in April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks
**Mask orders in place
**Open back up responsibly

That's the short-term solution.  We should have started this three weeks ago.

We won't do it.  But that's how you would be able to open schools safely, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 17, 2020, 09:16:30 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks
**Mask orders in place
**Open back up responsibly

That's the short-term solution.  We should have started this three weeks months ago.

We won't do it.  But that's how you would be able to open schools safely, etc.

People won't allow it.  What if they run out of food?  What if they run out of bottled water?  What if they run out of baby formula?  What if they need suntan lotion?  What if they need a new Apple Watch?

We live in a country where people don't like to be told not to do something.  In other certain countries, if they complain, or if they are found outside, the results would be fatal, and they know it, and most accept it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 09:18:30 AM
Shutting down still means essential businesses open.  Just like in Europe, Japan, Korea, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 17, 2020, 09:23:24 AM
Maybe the South and Southwest should shut down, since they never shut down properly last time, and that's where the spikes in cases are.
But the Northeast is definitely not shutting down again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: RobbieL2415 on July 17, 2020, 09:52:55 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
Quote from: LM117 on July 16, 2020, 03:35:35 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 15, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

CVS, Target, Kroger, Kohl's, and Best Buy have joined the club.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html)

_________

In other news, refrigerated trucks are heading to Arizona and Texas.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html)
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.
Not allowed from within the states. That's on them

Between the states? Probably.

Masks can be required in/for
- All Federal buildings and for all Federal contractors.
- Carriers under the jurisdiction of the FAA and NTSB
- Firearms dealers
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 17, 2020, 09:54:46 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks
**Mask orders in place
**Open back up responsibly

That's the short-term solution.  We should have started this three weeks ago.

We won't do it.  But that's how you would be able to open schools safely, etc.

The feds cannot shut down the country.  They have control over external borders, but they cannot restrict travel within the US.  The only way they (the feds) can do a mask order is to tie it to some sort of funding, i.e. like the 55 mph law.  Otherwise, it's up to each individual state, with the exceptions of those areas that are federal property (office buildings, post offices, etc.).  I'd strongly suggest reading the constitution sometime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 09:58:34 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 09:18:30 AM
Shutting down still means essential businesses open.

Isn't that what the shutdown orders have specifically said?  Non-essential businesses must close or do work-from-home, essential businesses stay open.  That's what we've had already.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks
**Mask orders in place
**Open back up responsibly

That's the short-term solution.  We should have started this three weeks ago.

More like three months ago.

Quote from: webny99 on July 16, 2020, 11:02:03 PM

Quote from: Scott5114 on July 16, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
A mask order still makes some degree of sense in a zero-case county, because an infected visitor could bring it in and not make it a zero-case county anymore. Having a mask order means that visitor would have to stay masked, protecting the residents from exposure.

And, how can we be sure it really is a zero-case county? Just because no one has an official positive test result doesn't mean no one has it. People are traveling back and forth between counties (to work, to shop, to visit friends or family) all the time. They could pick it up anywhere, and if they're asymptomatic, they likely won't bother to get tested.

And even if they do have symptoms, there are a ton of reasons not to get tested:
(a) they think the virus isn't spreading in their area, so they write it off and don't bother
(b) they don't personally know anyone who has been tested, and are dissuaded by the "PITA" factor and uncertainty of how it works
(c) they might lack information on how and where to get tested, considering their county probably hasn't administered many tests
(d) they fear being the first positive case in the county

...just to name a few.

Isn't that paranoia?

Vast majority of businesses serving locals only?
Near-zero tourism?
Not a single reported case this entire time?
But the bogey man might pop out at any time!

Seriously, in the town I grew up in, the highway through town has two gas stations and a diner.  That's it.  There used to be a motel or two, but they're not even open anymore.  Every other business in town sees basically zero customers from out of town.  It's rare to see more than a couple of customers in any business except the grocery store at one time.  Back when there was still a coffee/donut shop in the "downtown area" (such as that is), it was the same old farts in there every single morning, retired farmers who never go anywhere.  And that's the county seat, with no larger town within 29 miles in any direction.  To date, there have been zero COVID cases reported anywhere in the county.  Other than the people in the gas stations and perhaps the diner, why would anybody there need to wear a mask?

In fact, mandating from the capital that everyone wear one just reinforces that the politicians in Topeka are out of touch with the reality of rural Kansas.  Imagine three local farmers hanging out on the floor of the grain elevator in nearby Ludell (population 80), and tell me what they think of the governor when she requires them to wear masks because they're not members of the same household.  Or I remember when my mom worked as a clerk at the feed store in town.  That was technically a public-facing business open to customers.  Yet not a single one of those employees or customers were from out of town;  furthermore, every one of them knew most of the others by name, where they lived, what they did for a living, who their family members were, etc.  Is it realistic to purport that they must live in fear of some outsider spreading contagion?

What would, in my opinion, generate greater respect would be a statewide order that triggers mask mandates once a county hits a certain threshold of case numbers.  (I don't know if that threshold should be a static number or some formula based on population and/or healthcare capacity.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 10:02:35 AM
Quote from: Brandon on July 17, 2020, 09:54:46 AM
The feds cannot shut down the country.  They have control over external borders, but they cannot restrict travel within the US.  The only way they (the feds) can do a mask order is to tie it to some sort of funding, i.e. like the 55 mph law.  Otherwise, it's up to each individual state, with the exceptions of those areas that are federal property (office buildings, post offices, etc.).  I'd strongly suggest reading the constitution sometime.

↓  Which is why JNW linked to it in answer to the question posed earlier.  ↓

Quote from: J N Winkler on July 13, 2020, 05:33:52 PM

Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:30:21 PM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 13, 2020, 02:14:50 PM

Quote from: Brandon on July 13, 2020, 02:11:25 PM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 12, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
Nice try.  The fact is our national response has been a disaster.  Explaining away these number is ridiculous.

When one considers that each state is responsible for the response, it will never actually be a "national" response.

We should have had a national response, not every state for themselves.

Name the federal law or relevant clause in the constitution and amendments that allows for it.

Spending Clause. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxing_and_Spending_Clause)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 10:07:30 AM
Quote from: Brandon on July 17, 2020, 09:54:46 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks
**Mask orders in place
**Open back up responsibly

That's the short-term solution.  We should have started this three weeks ago.

We won't do it.  But that's how you would be able to open schools safely, etc.

The feds cannot shut down the country.  They have control over external borders, but they cannot restrict travel within the US.  The only way they (the feds) can do a mask order is to tie it to some sort of funding, i.e. like the 55 mph law.  Otherwise, it's up to each individual state, with the exceptions of those areas that are federal property (office buildings, post offices, etc.).  I'd strongly suggest reading the constitution sometime.


I know all of this.  But that's what would work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 10:14:44 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 17, 2020, 10:38:14 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 09:58:34 AM
Quote from: webny99 on July 16, 2020, 11:02:03 PM
And, how can we be sure it really is a zero-case county? Just because no one has an official positive test result doesn't mean no one has it. People are traveling back and forth between counties (to work, to shop, to visit friends or family) all the time. They could pick it up anywhere, and if they're asymptomatic, they likely won't bother to get tested.
...
Isn't that paranoia?

I actually wasn't strongly on the side that masks should be required in so-called zero-case counties.
I was just pointing out that the premise of "zero-case" itself might not be accurate: the virus could be spreading there for weeks before a positive case is reported, but by the time people realize it's spreading and start taking it seriously, it might be too late.


Quote from: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 09:58:34 AM
Seriously, in the town I grew up in, the highway through town has two gas stations and a diner.  That's it.  There used to be a motel or two, but they're not even open anymore.  Every other business in town sees basically zero customers from out of town.  It's rare to see more than a couple of customers in any business except the grocery store at one time.
...

Or I remember when my mom worked as a clerk at the feed store in town.  That was technically a public-facing business open to customers.  Yet not a single one of those employees or customers were from out of town;  furthermore, every one of them knew most of the others by name, where they lived, what they did for a living, who their family members were, etc.

Yup. Having spent quite a bit of time in rural North Dakota, I get it. Rural towns are so totally different from suburban and urban areas in this regard, to the point where it's fun to joke with friends and family about the "everyone knows everyone" phenomenon, and how visitors can get completely confused trying follow all the names mentioned in any given conversation.

In our neighborhood, we come up with standard ways to refer to the neighbors we don't know, using descriptions of them, or their house or dog or whatever. But in small-town America, you know everyone in town, and the next town over, and all the farms in between, on a first-name basis. It's just expected.


Quote from: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 09:58:34 AM
What would, in my opinion, generate greater respect would be a statewide order that triggers mask mandates once a county hits a certain threshold of case numbers.  (I don't know if that threshold should be a static number or some formula based on population and/or healthcare capacity.)

I agree with that, although I think a formula would probably work better than a static number. 20 cases is insignificant in an urban county, but a potential big problem in a rural county with 2500 residents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 10:42:10 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 10:14:44 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.


No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 10:48:57 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 16, 2020, 09:14:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.

Regardless, a nationwide order isn't really consistent with how federalism works.

The feds have the authority to mandate masks, if they're so inclined, in places and circumstances that fall under their direct jurisdiction - so, for example, they could mandate everyone wear masks in post offices, on airplanes, on military bases, etc. And they could, through OSHA, mandate all employees wear masks while at work. But it's not really their place to make rules about what customers do while shopping, dining, etc. - this is under the purview of states.
If anything, centrally coordinated PR campaign could make sense. Probably strassing on "patriotic". Celebrities, 9/11 responders, politicians of all flavors.
Probably too late by now as "no mask" became a political statement as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
The cases and hospitalization data out of NYC has been encouraging as of late.  They got hit extremely hard in April but for months now their cases have cratered.  This is a good sign for places like Arizona, Florida, and Texas as once their cases begin to drop they hopefully won't see a resurgence (this virus basically appears to be 'One and Done'). 

It seems that once a state reaches a test positivity of about 30% the virus begins to peter out (basically running out of new people to infect).  Once you reach the point where you feel like the healthcare system is at capacity (like Arizona right now), that's the point when the virus starts to subside.  Two major field hospitals were build in metro Detroit in March during the heart of the outbreak there and both of which went almost entirely unused.  Same thing happened in NYC where that ship they sent treated very few COVID patients (along with the Javits Center). 

(https://i.imgur.com/HT4I7kf.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 10:54:37 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 10:48:57 AM

Quote from: Duke87 on July 16, 2020, 09:14:52 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 16, 2020, 04:33:49 PM

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 16, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
I think we should have a nationwide mask order if it's allowed.

I still think it makes little sense to require residents of a county with zero COVID cases to date (such as the county I grew up in, zero cases within 30 miles of the town I grew up in) to wear a mask at all times.  But apparently I'm in the minority on that one.

Regardless, a nationwide order isn't really consistent with how federalism works.

The feds have the authority to mandate masks, if they're so inclined, in places and circumstances that fall under their direct jurisdiction - so, for example, they could mandate everyone wear masks in post offices, on airplanes, on military bases, etc. And they could, through OSHA, mandate all employees wear masks while at work. But it's not really their place to make rules about what customers do while shopping, dining, etc. - this is under the purview of states.

If anything, centrally coordinated PR campaign could make sense. Probably strassing on "patriotic". Celebrities, 9/11 responders, politicians of all flavors.
Probably too late by now as "no mask" became a political statement as well.

Fixed your quote string.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 11:05:22 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
The cases and hospitalization data out of NYC has been encouraging as of late.  They got hit extremely hard in April but for months now their cases have cratered.  This is a good sign for places like Arizona, Florida, and Texas as once their cases begin to drop they hopefully won't see a resurgence (this virus basically appears to be 'One and Done'). 

It seems that once a state reaches a test positivity of about 30% the virus begins to peter out (basically running out of new people to infect).  Once you reach the point where you feel like the healthcare system is at capacity (like Arizona right now), that's the point when the virus starts to subside.  Two major field hospitals were build in metro Detroit in March during the heart of the outbreak there and both of which went almost entirely unused.  Same thing happened in NYC where that ship they sent treated very few COVID patients (along with the Javits Center). 

(https://i.imgur.com/HT4I7kf.png)


It isn't about the virus "petering out."  It's about governments reacting by shutting things down and/or citizens not putting themsevles in risky situations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 17, 2020, 11:28:44 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
The cases and hospitalization data out of NYC has been encouraging as of late.  They got hit extremely hard in April but for months now their cases have cratered.  This is a good sign for places like Arizona, Florida, and Texas as once their cases begin to drop they hopefully won't see a resurgence (this virus basically appears to be 'One and Done'). 

It seems that once a state reaches a test positivity of about 30% the virus begins to peter out (basically running out of new people to infect).  Once you reach the point where you feel like the healthcare system is at capacity (like Arizona right now), that's the point when the virus starts to subside.  Two major field hospitals were build in metro Detroit in March during the heart of the outbreak there and both of which went almost entirely unused.  Same thing happened in NYC where that ship they sent treated very few COVID patients (along with the Javits Center). 

(https://i.imgur.com/HT4I7kf.png)
Hopefully cases down south drop but the difference is NYC was locked down out the peak. AZ/FL/TX are not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 17, 2020, 11:30:02 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 09:18:30 AM
Shutting down still means essential businesses open.  Just like in Europe, Japan, Korea, etc.

Yeah, but a whole lot of things were deemed "essential" so they stayed open.  For example, all the yard signs paying tribute to healthcare workers, first responders, teachers, etc. - who printed those? why was that essential?

And then because there were so many exceptions, all the places that didn't get an exception wanted one.  And I will grant that many of them had good points.  Why could you go inside your big-box home improvement store in Michigan and buy a hammer, but you couldn't go to their outside area and buy a tomato plant for your garden?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:31:02 AM
It appears the virus has already 'petered out' in many regions.  Does it make sense to keep everything locked down for the areas that have already been ravaged by the virus?  It's like keeping the tornado sirens on after the tornado has already blown through town.  For instance why can't things fully reopen in NYC at this point?

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 17, 2020, 11:32:52 AM
Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 11:34:13 AM
My own state of Kansas was well into a good downward trend, when suddenly the curve started trending steeply upward again.  "Petering out" isn't necessarily the beginning of the end.

Again, take a look at Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 11:45:48 AM
SMH.  Viruses don't "peter out."  Stop with that nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 17, 2020, 11:32:52 AM
Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau.  That's why i don't think NYC has to be fearful of people from Florida coming in and reinfecting everyone... as many from NYC have already been infected and there is no widespread proof that people are getting infected a second time.

Quote from: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 11:34:13 AM
My own state of Kansas was well into a good downward trend, when suddenly the curve started trending steeply upward again.  "Petering out" isn't necessarily the beginning of the end.

Again, take a look at Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii.

There has never been widespread infections in Montana, Alaska, Hawaii, or Kansas.  None of those states had positivity rates anywhere close to what New York and Michigan were experiencing back in April.  The virus hasn't "petered out" in those states, rather those states have just been able to temporarily contain the virus.  But upon reopening their economies, the virus is rearing it's ugly head again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 11:50:54 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

Have they actually figured out yet how long people remain immune to the virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 11:59:33 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 17, 2020, 11:32:52 AM
Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 


They haven't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 12:21:56 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 11:59:33 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 17, 2020, 11:32:52 AM
Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 


They haven't. 

What's your proof that NYC hasn't reached "herd immunity"?  Admittedly i don't know the full status of NYC lock down measures, but it's pretty evident that not everyone is safely socially distancing.  There were groups of thousands of people gathering together during the George Floyd protests yet that didn't lead to a noticeable increase in cases.  I just took a random screenshot of a NYC traffic cam and people are filling the streets.  Back in March when looking through the NYC traffic cams the city was looking a bit deserted, but not anymore. 

(https://i.imgur.com/FdnjlnE.png)

There was a case study out of China where one infected person on a bus infected dozens of other riders.  There are coronavirus infected people in NYC as we speak, some probably riding on a NYC bus, yet they aren't infecting everyone around them.  Early in this pandemic a few dozen coronavirus hospitalizations exploded into over 1700 in less than a month.  Now over the past several weeks hospitalizations have been averaging below 50 (and holding steady even as more people in the city seem to disregard social distancing guidelines). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 12:24:14 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 12:21:56 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 11:59:33 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
Quote from: GaryV on July 17, 2020, 11:32:52 AM
Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 


They haven't. 

What's your proof that NYC hasn't reached "herd immunity"?


Scientific consensus.  Yours?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 12:31:23 PM
The novel coronavirus is a new virus by its very definition.  There's not a tremendous amount of "scientific consensus" as it relates to this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 12:32:06 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 12:31:23 PM
The novel coronavirus is a new virus by its very definition.  There's not a tremendous amount of "scientific consensus" as it relates to this virus.


There is pretty strong scientific consensus about herd immunity. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 01:29:13 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 12:32:06 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 12:31:23 PM
The novel coronavirus is a new virus by its very definition.  There's not a tremendous amount of "scientific consensus" as it relates to this virus.


There is pretty strong scientific consensus about herd immunity.
I didn't see a good explanation why certain people get very sick, some don't. A friend-of-a-friend had 2 positive swabs (not a false positive!), no symptoms, no antibodies.
There is a number for antibody carriers - in 20-25-30% range in hot spots - which is way below herd limit, but what it really means? Is it possible that another 50% are naturally resistive to this virus? Or maybe IgM is below detection limit in another 30%?
We will certainly know much more 5 years from now, though...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 17, 2020, 01:53:58 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 17, 2020, 09:23:24 AM
Maybe the South and Southwest should shut down, since they never shut down properly last time, and that's where the spikes in cases are.
But the Northeast is definitely not shutting down again.

Maybe we need a Control-ALT-Delete on 2020?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 17, 2020, 02:00:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 11:50:54 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

Have they actually figured out yet how long people remain immune to the virus?

If NYC has, they haven't told the rest of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 02:03:33 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 17, 2020, 09:23:24 AM
Maybe the South and Southwest should shut down, since they never shut down properly last time, and that's where the spikes in cases are.
But the Northeast is definitely not shutting down again.

New England, New York, and New Jersey are still looking pretty good–although I'm wondering if Rhode Island might be starting to trend upward again.

However, Maryland is starting to trend upward again and Delaware is still bouncing around.  Depending on whether or not you count Virginia and West Virginia as being part of the Northeast, you can count those two states as having upward-moving trends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 02:11:20 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 17, 2020, 02:00:43 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 11:50:54 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 11:46:44 AM
I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

Have they actually figured out yet how long people remain immune to the virus?

If NYC has, they haven't told the rest of us.
SARS - which is a related virus - has immunity response going down in 2-3 years with <10% people having significant antibodies at 6 year mark. What that means  in terms of reinfection is not known.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 17, 2020, 02:29:30 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 17, 2020, 10:52:59 AM
It seems that once a state reaches a test positivity of about 30% the virus begins to peter out (basically running out of new people to infect).

Sure enough (going by rolling 7-day totals), Georgia's test positivity rate peaked at about 29% in early April before starting to go down. It's pretty clear that it had not run out of people in the state to infect at that time, though; rather, the drop is likely attributable to (a) testing beginning to ramp up, and (b) the fact that a statewide shelter-in-place order went into effect about one week earlier.

Quote from: kphoger on July 17, 2020, 11:34:13 AM
My own state of Kansas was well into a good downward trend, when suddenly the curve started trending steeply upward again.  "Petering out" isn't necessarily the beginning of the end.

Again, take a look at Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii.

Likewise, Georgia's downward trend was proceeding quite well through about mid-May, with the positive test ratio falling below 4%*. Now, of course, we're back to over 15%.

* This number may be artificially low, as it occurred during the time period when GDPH was not differentiating between regular tests and antibody tests. The "real" number was likely more like 5-6%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on July 17, 2020, 05:03:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on July 16, 2020, 03:35:35 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 15, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

CVS, Target, Kroger, Kohl's, and Best Buy have joined the club.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html)

Lowe's and Home Depot have also announced mask requirements.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/business/home-depot-lowes-masks-required/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/business/home-depot-lowes-masks-required/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 17, 2020, 05:14:44 PM
Quote from: LM117 on July 17, 2020, 05:03:32 PM
Quote from: LM117 on July 16, 2020, 03:35:35 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 15, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

CVS, Target, Kroger, Kohl's, and Best Buy have joined the club.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html)

Lowe's and Home Depot have also announced mask requirements.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/business/home-depot-lowes-masks-required/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/business/home-depot-lowes-masks-required/index.html)

The Fox Business article linked above gives July 20 as the effective date of Walmart's policy, which also applies to Sam's Club.

I went to a Sam's near me yesterday to do some bulk shopping.  I had to show my membership card at a booth within the entrance, which had a large sign indicating masks were required and blaming it on the "local government."  Since I had my mask on when I entered, I am not sure whether they were actively enforcing mask wearing at that store.

Most shoppers were wearing their masks correctly, though a few people were wearing theirs around their necks rather than their noses and mouths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 17, 2020, 05:22:42 PM
I made a quick trip to Harp's Grocery today and many people weren't wearing masks. Employees were, I was, but less that half of the other customers. They also didn't have "One Way Aisles"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 05:50:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 10:42:10 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 10:14:44 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.


No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.


I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 06:40:30 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 05:50:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 10:42:10 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 10:14:44 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.


No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.


I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...

Part of something that has consistently bothered me more and more during the COVID pandemic is the lack of acknowledgement that death occurs many other ways.  Even with how cases are trending now COVID won't even approach the number of fatalities related to heart disease and cancer.  I've had relatively die of both of those already this year and a third one is likely to be taken down by cancer by year end.  I only know of one family member who tested positive for COVID-19 and the only reason she took a test was due to her job as a nurse.  We're way past the point of telling people to sit in their houses and not leave them for six weeks (Which I believe actually occurred in Europe early on) with the present mortality projections.  Given recent projections on mortality have been as low as 0.3% those uber draconian lock down policies seen early on 2020 aren't going to garner much support. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 17, 2020, 06:59:03 PM
FWIW I've been in self isolation (except for groceries and laundry) since mid-March. Otherwise, This forum and Fakebook are the only contact I've had with the outside world.  I don't like it, but I'm doing it for myself and the greater good (tm).

I don't believe the rubbish about "more people will die", but I'm sure some will simply for lack of any semblance of human contact.

My 2 pfennigs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 07:16:19 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 17, 2020, 06:59:03 PM
FWIW I've been in self isolation (except for groceries and laundry) since mid-March. Otherwise, This forum and Fakebook are the only contact I've had with the outside world.  I don't like it, but I'm doing it for myself and the greater good (tm).

I don't believe the rubbish about "more people will die", but I'm sure some will simply for lack of any semblance of human contact.

My 2 pfennigs.

I'm a pretty introverted person myself.  To that end I've found myself in the unusual position of having to be in contact with more people than normal since the pandemic began.  A lot of that is driven by my job, it still seems odd to me to find out how many white collar workers haven't been on their office in months.  On the private life side I've been often the one who has gone and gotten things or done errands for family members who couldn't leave the house...or werent comfortable doing so.

To that end as time wears on I don't think the bulk of the so called "greater good"  to be as much as a thing as people say...or perhaps not as worth it as it might have previously been stated.  But to that end a lot of that has to do with how more is known about COVID-19 versus early 2020.  I do find myself kind of surprised that many people really thought and continue to think that the cat can be put back in the bag with cases rising.  Even with masks and all these safety protocols in public places it is pretty much inevitable at this point for known cases to increase.  Sure increased testing plays a part but any virus will spread given the opportunity to do so.  It seems as though the calculus being used now is assuming the benefits of reopening outweighs the risks in a lot of states and places (certainly not all).  I guess everyone has to decide for themselves how they want to respond to what is happening around them.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 07:25:23 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 06:40:30 PM
Part of something that has consistently bothered me more and more during the COVID pandemic is the lack of acknowledgement that death occurs many other ways.  Even with how cases are trending now COVID won't even approach the number of fatalities related to heart disease and cancer.  I've had relatively die of both of those already this year and a third one is likely to be taken down by cancer by year end.  I only know of one family member who tested positive for COVID-19 and the only reason she took a test was due to her job as a nurse.  We're way past the point of telling people to sit in their houses and not leave them for six weeks (Which I believe actually occurred in Europe early on) with the present mortality projections.  Given recent projections on mortality have been as low as 0.3% those uber draconian lock down policies seen early on 2020 aren't going to garner much support.
Depends on how you measure. During days and weeks of the peak, covid is the dominant reason of death as in total death rate more than doubles.
And remember, 0.3% is with all the resources - including those freed up from "non-essential elective" surgeries (which, of course, also has its human cost!). It could end up being higher if runaway mode in the south doesn't stop, like, yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 07:34:34 PM
Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 17, 2020, 07:56:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 07:34:34 PM
Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't that like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 08:08:50 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 17, 2020, 07:56:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 07:34:34 PM
Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

No I'm not saying that, I'm not even sure how you drew the inference to the reply you quoted (maybe the one before?).   I was just saying that any projection on mortality is just that; "a projection."  

But to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?

In the context of Confirmed Cases versus Hospitalizations and Fatalities yes I think there is far more value in the latter two.  Confirmed Cases doesn't really convey the degree of seriousness a case or may/may not have.  It has value in terms of determine who should self isolate for 14 days or contact tracing but it doesn't provide much data on the effects of COVID beyond projected distribution.  If I recall correctly the amount of real cases in most jurisdictions is projected to be two to four times higher than confirmed cases at any time?  Hospitalizations and fatalities get more to the meat of how people with serious symptoms are being affected by the virus. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 08:12:53 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 17, 2020, 07:56:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 07:34:34 PM
Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?
I mean what is called "excess deaths".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 08:18:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 08:08:50 PM
But to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?
Looks like formal accounting is done under died+covid = died from covid. Not sure if that would include those with a bullet wound in vital organs. Someone in this thread mentioned "eggshell skull" approach in criminal prosecution working same way.
The immediate cause of death, though, could be a heart issue - but that wouldn't occur if the virus didn't affect blood flow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 08:38:44 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 17, 2020, 07:56:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 07:34:34 PM
Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death

Yes, someone here at least blatantly lied in this case.

George Floyd was also positive for Covid-19, and I guarantee Minnesota listed him as a Covid related death.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 08:42:45 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 08:18:07 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 08:08:50 PM
But to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?
Looks like formal accounting is done under died+covid = died from covid. Not sure if that would include those with a bullet wound in vital organs. Someone in this thread mentioned "eggshell skull" approach in criminal prosecution working same way.
The immediate cause of death, though, could be a heart issue - but that wouldn't occur if the virus didn't affect blood flow.

Would it though?  That seems to be something that medical examiners ought to be putting effort into actually determining given it could be vital data in the context of a pandemic.  I guess that's the rub, say it was someone who never had heart issues I could see it being classified likely as COVID related.  But then again if it's a person who has a long history of heart problems can that cause really just be lumped into COVID?  I'm assuming that if that's the case for COVID the eggshell approach would also be the rule for other diseases like the Flu?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 17, 2020, 09:26:15 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 05:50:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 10:42:10 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 10:14:44 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.


No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.


I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...

This may have made news nationally. The wife of Congressman Andy Barr from Lexington died suddenly and unexpectedly. The cause was ruled to be a heart valve problem. I've been told by a family friend that she had been scheduled for elective corrective surgery, but that got canceled when Kentucky banned all elective medical procedures in advance of the wave of hospitalizations that never happened. Had the surgery taken place as planned, she would not have died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 17, 2020, 10:44:26 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 08:42:45 PM
Would it though?  That seems to be something that medical examiners ought to be putting effort into actually determining given it could be vital data in the context of a pandemic.  I guess that's the rub, say it was someone who never had heart issues I could see it being classified likely as COVID related.  But then again if it's a person who has a long history of heart problems can that cause really just be lumped into COVID?  I'm assuming that if that's the case for COVID the eggshell approach would also be the rule for other diseases like the Flu?
Statistically, it looks a bit different. Here is the graph of (weekly?) mortality in NYC. It is pretty smooth... normally (https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total-promo-1588123095036/coronavirus-death-toll-total-promo-1588123095036-facebookJumbo-v4.jpg)

And then, CDC compares that spike with reported causes:
(https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6919e5-F.gif)

But at least some of that excess is explicitly booked as not directly  related to the virus:

(https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20200411_WOC207.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 18, 2020, 12:20:11 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 08:08:50 PMBut to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?

Certification of medical cause of death is the responsibility of the states, but death certificates are more or less standardized nationwide and the CDC publishes guidance on how underlying and contributory causes are to be reported.

Here is a circular specific to covid-19:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

And here is the handbook for medical certification of death:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_cod.pdf

This is a cheat sheet:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf

Additionally, I suspect the rules vary somewhat among the states in how edge cases are treated for purposes of counting covid-19 deaths.  My experience with the death certificates I've encountered as part of genealogical research also suggests that there is variation in whether the rules are observed at all.  For example, death certificate forms have long called for causes to be listed as a progressive sequence from immediate to underlying, yet for my second great-grandmother (died in Texas in 1951 at age 98), it goes "Arteriosclerotic heart disease--Decubitus ulcers, senility--Arteriosclerotic gangrene of left leg and foot."
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 18, 2020, 01:53:15 AM
Things are getting scary in Oklahoma.

A coworker of mine had her mother end up in the hospital in Chickasha this week, for an injury that was bad enough she needed the ICU (i.e. non-COVID-related). She ended up needing more advanced care than Chickasha was able to provide, but none of the hospitals in Oklahoma City or Norman (closer to where my coworker lives) would accept the transfer. She ended up being sent to Lawton instead. Even that was kind of touch-and-go for a while and there had been talk of Wichita Falls being the backup plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 18, 2020, 02:14:14 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 18, 2020, 01:53:15 AM
Things are getting scary in Oklahoma.

A coworker of mine had her mother end up in the hospital in Chickasha this week, for an injury that was bad enough she needed the ICU (i.e. non-COVID-related). She ended up needing more advanced care than Chickasha was able to provide, but none of the hospitals in Oklahoma City or Norman (closer to where my coworker lives) would accept the transfer. She ended up being sent to Lawton instead. Even that was kind of touch-and-go for a while and there had been talk of Wichita Falls being the backup plan.

Wichita Falls reports 12 ICU beds available today in its region.  That might seem like an abundance in normal times for a rural area, but in these times a number like that could evaporate.  In Texas, we have over 5,000 ventilators available, but much less ICU capacity, because you can't make an ICU bed just by plugging in a ventilator.  ICU patients are labor intensive, and you need doctors and nurses to monitor them constantly.  The last time I saw a report on the matter, a minority of ICU patients were covid patients, but it doesn't matter why they're taking up space, because when that space is taken, it's taken.  When people who need that space can't get it, things can go bad quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:01:56 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 05:50:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 10:42:10 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 10:14:44 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 17, 2020, 08:56:18 AM
**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.


No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.


I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...


Are you really that intellectually dishonest or dumb to think your anecdotal stories are representative of larger trends?  Fine.  I had a friend's son die of Covid.  Guess what is happening more frequenetly? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:07:37 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 08:38:44 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 17, 2020, 07:56:54 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 17, 2020, 07:34:34 PM
Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death

Yes, someone here at least blatantly lied in this case.

George Floyd was also positive for Covid-19, and I guarantee Minnesota listed him as a Covid related death.


Wrong again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/us/george-floyd-independent-autopsy/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 08:35:19 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

Bingo. People that are against something constantly hang on to the newest reason that they heard on the internet, even when it contradicts their previous reasoning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:55:34 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 18, 2020, 10:40:31 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:55:34 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.
Well... A somewhat similar scenario in the norheast: government requires people drive 65 MPH on a certain I-xx. There are penalties for going 66.
A lot of people believe that is a stupid one, and a drive 80+ on a said highway outside rush hour. Police has heavy presence, enforcing... I believe 85 is when they care.
Pretty similar logic if you think about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 10:41:40 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:55:34 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.

Toasting a virtual Busch Light to you. Cheers!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 10:44:10 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 18, 2020, 10:40:31 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:55:34 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.
Well... A somewhat similar scenario in the norheast: government requires people drive 65 MPH on a certain I-xx. There are penalties for going 66.
A lot of people believe that is a stupid one, and a drive 80+ on a said highway outside rush hour. Police has heavy presence, enforcing... I believe 85 is when they care.
Pretty similar logic if you think about it.

Completely disagree.

Some of those roads are easier to drive over 80 mph during rush hour when you get a good pack of traffic doing this same.  :-D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 18, 2020, 11:41:57 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:07:37 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 17, 2020, 08:38:44 PMGeorge Floyd was also positive for Covid-19, and I guarantee Minnesota listed him as a Covid related death.

Wrong again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/us/george-floyd-independent-autopsy/index.html

To be clear, I have not seen George Floyd's death certificate or whatever guidance Minnesota is issuing to physicians who have to certify cause of death, but his autopsy report is available online (https://www.hennepin.us/-/media/hennepinus/residents/public-safety/documents/Autopsy_2020-3700_Floyd.pdf) and notes that his positive test for covid-19 was on April 3 while his death was on May 25.  Other sources (cited in his Wikipedia article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd)) describe him as having recovered after a few weeks.  I'd be skeptical that his death certificate lists covid-19 even under the "other significant conditions" section.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 18, 2020, 11:59:14 AM

(Reuters) - George Floyd, whose fatal encounter with Minneapolis police stirred a global outcry over racial bias by U.S. law enforcement, tested positive for the coronavirus, his autopsy showed, but the infection was not listed as a factor in his death". (emphasis added)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ASTaj3G.png)

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 18, 2020, 01:32:57 PM
Well, okay then. Everything's safe and sound cause tradephoric said so. I'm gonna go have everyone at work cough on me in celebration. Ciao!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 18, 2020, 01:36:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ASTaj3G.png)

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).
I guess all 50 states should open up then! Let's mass gather and celebrate!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:53:00 PM
A major tornado blew through Europe in March.

A major tornado blew through America in July.

Should we only look at July power outage data to determine how many residents are without power?  Doesn't seem like a very fair comparison. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 18, 2020, 03:29:38 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:53:00 PM
A major tornado blew through Europe in March.

A major tornado blew through America in July.

Should we only look at July power outage data to determine how many residents are without power?  Doesn't seem like a very fair comparison.
Was power still out in Europe in July?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 18, 2020, 03:42:20 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 18, 2020, 03:29:38 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:53:00 PM
A major tornado blew through Europe in March.

A major tornado blew through America in July.

Should we only look at July power outage data to determine how many residents are without power?  Doesn't seem like a very fair comparison.
Was power still out in Europe in July?

I think this was just an example, not meant to be taken literally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 18, 2020, 04:37:48 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ASTaj3G.png)

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).

Spain has been in the order of 6,000 cases in the last week. Most of them came in Aragon and Catalonia, mainly due to fruit pickers who usually live in poor conditions. The former reacted as soon as cases started to rebound and imposed some restrictions again, while the latter didn't react until it was too late. Guess who managed to keep the number of cases low... However this has now reached Zaragoza, and I don't know what will happen now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 18, 2020, 04:43:58 PM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on July 18, 2020, 04:37:48 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ASTaj3G.png)

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).

Spain has been in the order of 6,000 cases in the last week. Most of them came in Aragon and Catalonia, mainly due to fruit pickers who usually live in poor conditions. The former reacted as soon as cases started to rebound and imposed some restrictions again, while the latter didn't react until it was too late. Guess who managed to keep the number of cases low... However this has now reached Zaragoza, and I don't know what will happen now.

Weren't you under some pretty heavy restrictions early in the pandemic?  I seem to recall you mentioning things like people being unable to leave the house for even exercise. 
Title: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 18, 2020, 05:04:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 18, 2020, 01:36:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
[image snipped]

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).
I guess all 50 states should open up then! Let's mass gather and celebrate!

Yeah, that's not what he said, nor what any of the panic skeptics are arguing for.

Much of his statement happens to be true. According to ourworldindata.org (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing), which sources data from various reporting institutions around the world, has determined that the United States (pop. 327M) ranks sixth overall in daily tests per 1M population, behind Luxembourg (pop. 613k), Bahrain (pop. 1.6M), the United Arab Emirates (pop. 10M), Singapore (pop. 5.6M) and Israel (pop. 8.8M). For a country that is more than 12 times the size of all those countries combined, I'd say we have administered, by far, the most COVID-19 tests of any country in the world.

Thanks to federalism, the United States has been without a unified federal government response, so the current patchwork of responses has been built up by the individual states and municipalities. The media seems fairly keen on attacking Texas and Florida for their current sharp rises in cases, but it's fairly obvious they did a good job containing the spread of the virus when deaths in states like New Jersey and New York were sky high. In fact, since those early states got absolutely walloped by coronavirus in late March and early to mid-April, they still top the charts in terms of COVID-19-related deaths per 100k population, with 176 and 167 deaths per 100k, respectively. According to this page from Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/), Florida and Texas rank much further down the line, in 25th and 35th place, respectively.

Nobody with any serious credentials is attempting to legitimately argue for a complete, no-holds-barred reopening of the entire country absent any guidelines from the CDC. The American people are, buy and large, adhering to local face covering guidelines (including myself), and as COVID-19 testing becomes easier to access and more prevalent across the country, we will only begin to see a more complete picture of the true situation. Of course, all the figures I just mentioned do not take into account the very high likelihood that the total number of infections could very well be as much as 10x the number of confirmed positive cases (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-covid-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134), which has been hypothesized after extrapolating antibody test results over the entire U.S. population. If that's true, the COVID-19 death rate would plummet to a fraction of one-tenth of a percent across the board, and for young people it would be reduced to a value so infinitesimally small that it would be rendered statistically insignificant.

"There are more people who have COVID-19 in the U.S. than in any other country" is not sufficient to arrive at any meaningful statistical conclusions. The media doesn't seem to believe this is the case, which is unfortunately what has been responsible for all the disingenuous messaging from the last few months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 18, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084 (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26301.msg2517603#msg2517603). Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on July 18, 2020, 09:55:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
Only in Florida....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 18, 2020, 10:33:13 PM
Quote from: SSOWorld on July 18, 2020, 09:55:47 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
Only in Florida....

and Arkansas (several Sheriffs are saying they won't issue tickets for no mask)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 19, 2020, 05:20:11 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 18, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084 (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26301.msg2517603#msg2517603). Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 19, 2020, 06:49:30 AM
Quote from: Brandon on July 19, 2020, 05:20:11 AM
Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

Did you even bother to read the post HB was responding to? "These people aren't really dying of Covid" and "Florida labs are reporting bad data" are not, in fact, the same thing. Hell, you didn't even have to click an extra link for that one!

And yes, the data from Florida in particular has been notoriously bad throughout all this. I'm sure you remember the official who was fired because she refused to lie on the state government's behalf to say it was better than it actually was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:27:44 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 18, 2020, 05:04:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 18, 2020, 01:36:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
[image snipped]

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).
I guess all 50 states should open up then! Let's mass gather and celebrate!

Yeah, that's not what he said, nor what any of the panic skeptics are arguing for.

Much of his statement happens to be true. According to ourworldindata.org (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing), which sources data from various reporting institutions around the world, has determined that the United States (pop. 327M) ranks sixth overall in daily tests per 1M population, behind Luxembourg (pop. 613k), Bahrain (pop. 1.6M), the United Arab Emirates (pop. 10M), Singapore (pop. 5.6M) and Israel (pop. 8.8M). For a country that is more than 12 times the size of all those countries combined, I'd say we have administered, by far, the most COVID-19 tests of any country in the world.

Thanks to federalism, the United States has been without a unified federal government response,


Oh it's so very cute that you think that!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:28:52 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 19, 2020, 06:49:30 AM
Quote from: Brandon on July 19, 2020, 05:20:11 AM
Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

Did you even bother to read the post HB was responding to? "These people aren't really dying of Covid" and "Florida labs are reporting bad data" are not, in fact, the same thing. Hell, you didn't even have to click an extra link for that one!

And yes, the data from Florida in particular has been notoriously bad throughout all this. I'm sure you remember the official who was fired because she refused to lie on the state government's behalf to say it was better than it actually was.


Florida has been a disaster

People make mistakes

A lot of people are dying from Covid because our response has been a disaster

These statements are all true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 10:28:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:28:52 AM

Florida has been a disaster

People make mistakes

A lot of people are dying from Covid because our response has been a disaster

These statements are all true.

The lock-down measures put in place in March were effective at delaying communal spread of the virus for much of the country (e.g., FL, TX, AZ).  The extra time has allowed for improvements in therapeutics and patient care which has resulted in higher survival rates among hospitalized patients.  Also, lessons have been learned from states that were hit hard by the virus in March.  While increased testing and delaying the virus spread has led to higher daily cases today, that stat shouldn't be used by the media to try to prove failure (again increased testing capacity and delaying the spread are both good things).  A point that should not be lost:  America has seen fewer deaths per capita than many Western European countries including the UK, Spain, France, Sweden, and Italy. 

If Florida has been a disaster what has New York been?  While making up only 5.9% of the countries population, New York has accounted for 22.8% of America's COVID deaths.  New York has reported 6X the number of Covid deaths than Florida (32,552 vs 4,898) even as both states have similar populations and have had widespread communal spread.  Even if Florida reports 10,000 additional deaths as their current outbreak abates (right now FL is averaging 100 deaths a day), New York would still have double the number of COVID deaths than Florida.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 19, 2020, 10:34:34 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 10:28:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:28:52 AM

Florida has been a disaster

People make mistakes

A lot of people are dying from Covid because our response has been a disaster

These statements are all true.

The lock-down measures put in place in March were effective at delaying communal spread of the virus for much of the country (e.g., FL, TX, AZ).  The extra time has allowed for improvements in therapeutics and patient care which has resulted in higher survival rates among hospitalized patients.  Also, lessons have been learned from states that were hit hard by the virus in March.  While increased testing and delaying the virus spread has led to higher daily cases today, that stat shouldn't be used by the media to try to prove failure (again increased testing capacity and delaying the spread are both good things).  A point that should not be lost:  America has seen fewer deaths per capita than many Western European countries including the UK, Spain, France, Sweden, and Italy. 

If Florida has been a disaster what has New York been?  While making up only 5.9% of the countries population, New York has accounted for 22.8% of America's COVID deaths.  New York has reported 6X the number of Covid deaths than Florida (32,552 vs 4,898) even as both states have similar populations and have had widespread communal spread.  Even if Florida reports 10,000 additional deaths as their current outbreak abates (right now FL is averaging 100 deaths a day), New York would still have double the number of COVID deaths than Florida.
Maybe Florida should have locked down later than New York.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 10:43:24 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 10:28:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:28:52 AM

Florida has been a disaster

People make mistakes

A lot of people are dying from Covid because our response has been a disaster

These statements are all true.

The lock-down measures put in place in March were effective at delaying communal spread of the virus for much of the country (e.g., FL, TX, AZ).  The extra time has allowed for improvements in therapeutics and patient care which has resulted in higher survival rates among hospitalized patients.  Also, lessons have been learned from states that were hit hard by the virus in March.  While increased testing and delaying the virus spread has led to higher daily cases today, that stat shouldn't be used by the media to try to prove failure (again increased testing capacity and delaying the spread are both good things).  A point that should not be lost:  America has seen fewer deaths per capita than many Western European countries including the UK, Spain, France, Sweden, and Italy. 

If Florida has been a disaster what has New York been?  While making up only 5.9% of the countries population, New York has accounted for 22.8% of America's COVID deaths.  New York has reported 6X the number of Covid deaths than Florida (32,552 vs 4,898) even as both states have similar populations and have had widespread communal spread.  Even if Florida reports 10,000 additional deaths as their current outbreak abates (right now FL is averaging 100 deaths a day), New York would still have double the number of COVID deaths than Florida.


New York's deaths were early in the pandemic when we were still figuring things out.  What is happening in Florida, Arizona and Texas is reprehensible because it is coming AFTER we knew what was happening and how to prevent it. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 19, 2020, 11:47:43 AM
Here are a few things to think about:

*  Early in the crisis, New York benefited from nurses and other medical personnel flown in from all over the US.  Now that the virus is out of control in much of the rest of the US, nurses etc. from New York are prepared to reciprocate . . . but are there enough to go around?

*  With testing ramped up and the virus now sampling younger populations, the ratio of confirmed positive cases per covid-19 ICU admission is much higher now than it was at the start of the crisis.  But when the virus is still spreading exponentially, this only means it takes a bit longer to overload ICUs, which is now happening in multiple states.  Younger patients also mean steeper losses in terms of disability-adjusted life years and ongoing need for added medical care.

*  We are inching back toward losing 1,000 or more a day to covid-19.  While things may be stabilizing in Arizona (new confirmed cases per 100,000 has been trending down for about a week), they are deteriorating in Texas, which has a lot more population to feed the fire (2019 estimated populations of 7.2 million versus 29 million).
Title: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 11:53:06 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:27:44 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 18, 2020, 05:04:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 18, 2020, 01:36:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
[image snipped]

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).
I guess all 50 states should open up then! Let's mass gather and celebrate!
Thanks to federalism, the United States has been without a unified federal government response,
Oh it's so very cute that you think that!

Ha. I like how that's what you took away from what I wrote. I'm not entirely sure how to interpret your attempt at a witty retort, but assuming you're saying I'm wrong, care to explain why?

Sure, we've had guidelines issued by the CDC and other federal government entities, but besides issuing guidelines and saying "please wear a mask and socially distance,"  what else can they do? The state governments have public health power, *not* the federal government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 11:59:56 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 10:43:24 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 10:28:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:28:52 AM

Florida has been a disaster

People make mistakes

A lot of people are dying from Covid because our response has been a disaster

These statements are all true.

The lock-down measures put in place in March were effective at delaying communal spread of the virus for much of the country (e.g., FL, TX, AZ).  The extra time has allowed for improvements in therapeutics and patient care which has resulted in higher survival rates among hospitalized patients.  Also, lessons have been learned from states that were hit hard by the virus in March.  While increased testing and delaying the virus spread has led to higher daily cases today, that stat shouldn't be used by the media to try to prove failure (again increased testing capacity and delaying the spread are both good things).  A point that should not be lost:  America has seen fewer deaths per capita than many Western European countries including the UK, Spain, France, Sweden, and Italy. 

If Florida has been a disaster what has New York been?  While making up only 5.9% of the countries population, New York has accounted for 22.8% of America's COVID deaths.  New York has reported 6X the number of Covid deaths than Florida (32,552 vs 4,898) even as both states have similar populations and have had widespread communal spread.  Even if Florida reports 10,000 additional deaths as their current outbreak abates (right now FL is averaging 100 deaths a day), New York would still have double the number of COVID deaths than Florida.


New York's deaths were early in the pandemic when we were still figuring things out.  What is happening in Florida, Arizona and Texas is reprehensible because it is coming AFTER we knew what was happening and how to prevent it.

I'm old enough to remember when we were all told to flatten the curve early on during the initial spread of the virus. Florida, Arizona and Texas did an excellent job of doing this, seeing as they are only now experiencing their first major wave of cases and they're not being accompanied by a sharp rise in deaths. New York, by contrast, had a policy up until about five seconds ago that forced hospitals to send elderly people who tested positive for COVID-19 BACK TO THEIR NURSING HOMES.

THAT is reprehensible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:08:34 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 11:59:56 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 10:43:24 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 10:28:18 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:28:52 AM

Florida has been a disaster

People make mistakes

A lot of people are dying from Covid because our response has been a disaster

These statements are all true.

The lock-down measures put in place in March were effective at delaying communal spread of the virus for much of the country (e.g., FL, TX, AZ).  The extra time has allowed for improvements in therapeutics and patient care which has resulted in higher survival rates among hospitalized patients.  Also, lessons have been learned from states that were hit hard by the virus in March.  While increased testing and delaying the virus spread has led to higher daily cases today, that stat shouldn't be used by the media to try to prove failure (again increased testing capacity and delaying the spread are both good things).  A point that should not be lost:  America has seen fewer deaths per capita than many Western European countries including the UK, Spain, France, Sweden, and Italy. 

If Florida has been a disaster what has New York been?  While making up only 5.9% of the countries population, New York has accounted for 22.8% of America's COVID deaths.  New York has reported 6X the number of Covid deaths than Florida (32,552 vs 4,898) even as both states have similar populations and have had widespread communal spread.  Even if Florida reports 10,000 additional deaths as their current outbreak abates (right now FL is averaging 100 deaths a day), New York would still have double the number of COVID deaths than Florida.


New York's deaths were early in the pandemic when we were still figuring things out.  What is happening in Florida, Arizona and Texas is reprehensible because it is coming AFTER we knew what was happening and how to prevent it.

I'm old enough to remember when we were all told to flatten the curve early on during the initial spread of the virus. Florida, Arizona and Texas did an excellent job of doing this, seeing as they are only now experiencing their first major wave of cases and they're not being accompanied by a sharp rise in deaths.

LOL what?  Do you live under a f**king rock?

Hospitals are running out of room and deaths are rising.  Sure they flattened the curve, but that's useless if you simply go back and engage in the same behavior that lets it get out of control in the first place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:10:57 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 11:53:06 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 08:27:44 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 18, 2020, 05:04:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 18, 2020, 01:36:08 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 18, 2020, 01:24:09 PM
[image snipped]

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).
I guess all 50 states should open up then! Let's mass gather and celebrate!
Thanks to federalism, the United States has been without a unified federal government response,
Oh it's so very cute that you think that!

Ha. I like how that's what you took away from what I wrote. I'm not entirely sure how to interpret your attempt at a witty retort, but assuming you're saying I'm wrong, care to explain why?

Sure, we've had guidelines issued by the CDC and other federal government entities, but besides issuing guidelines and saying "please wear a mask and socially distance,"  what else can they do? The state governments have public health power, *not* the federal government.


There is plenty the federal government can do.  They can provide money for all sorts of things.  They can provide leadership and messaging that doesn't implore that states open up when they shouldn't.  Etc. etc. etc.

And that's all I took out of your post because most of it was uninteresting and uninformative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:08:34 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 11:59:56 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 10:43:24 AM

New York's deaths were early in the pandemic when we were still figuring things out.  What is happening in Florida, Arizona and Texas is reprehensible because it is coming AFTER we knew what was happening and how to prevent it.

I'm old enough to remember when we were all told to flatten the curve early on during the initial spread of the virus. Florida, Arizona and Texas did an excellent job of doing this, seeing as they are only now experiencing their first major wave of cases and they're not being accompanied by a sharp rise in deaths.

LOL what?  Do you live under a f**king rock?

Hospitals are running out of room and deaths are rising.  Sure they flattened the curve, but that's useless if you simply go back and engage in the same behavior that lets it get out of control in the first place.

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

This is an individual responsibility issue. If you don't want to get the virus, wear a mask, practice social distancing, and don't go out if you have symptoms. The data I've read suggest that it's mostly younger people getting this in Florida, Texas and Arizona, which is why deaths aren't rising nearly as sharply as they did in March-April, and as such they require shorter stays in the ICU, assuming they even need to go there at all!
Title: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:15:30 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:10:57 PM
And that's all I took out of your post because most of it was uninteresting and uninformative.

And there it is.

Translation: "I didn't like how the statistics you posted contravene my "˜THE SKY IS FALLING!' narrative, so I will choose not to engage in a thoughtful debate about the merit of said statistics, and instead will fire back with a childish platitude. That'll show him!"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:08:34 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 11:59:56 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 10:43:24 AM

New York's deaths were early in the pandemic when we were still figuring things out.  What is happening in Florida, Arizona and Texas is reprehensible because it is coming AFTER we knew what was happening and how to prevent it.

I'm old enough to remember when we were all told to flatten the curve early on during the initial spread of the virus. Florida, Arizona and Texas did an excellent job of doing this, seeing as they are only now experiencing their first major wave of cases and they're not being accompanied by a sharp rise in deaths.

LOL what?  Do you live under a f**king rock?

Hospitals are running out of room and deaths are rising.  Sure they flattened the curve, but that's useless if you simply go back and engage in the same behavior that lets it get out of control in the first place.

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

This is an individual responsibility issue. If you don't want to get the virus, wear a mask, practice social distancing, and don't go out if you have symptoms. The data I've read suggest that it's mostly younger people getting this in Florida, Texas and Arizona, which is why deaths aren't rising nearly as sharply as they did in March-April, and as such they require shorter stays in the ICU, assuming they even need to go there at all!


We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And its not simply a personal responsibility issue.  The young are spreading it to the old and vulnerable.  People who haven't engaged in risky behavior.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:15:30 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:10:57 PM
And that's all I took out of your post because most of it was uninteresting and uninformative.

And there it is.

Translation: "I didn't like how the statistics you posted contravene my "˜THE SKY IS FALLING!' narrative, so I will choose not to engage in a thoughtful debate about the merit of said statistics, and instead will fire back with a childish platitude. That'll show him!"


Misusing stats is not engaging in thoughtful debate.  It's intellectual dishonestly.  I don't debate with people who are dishonest.

Everything that I predicted would happen when states opened back up without the necessary safety precautions in place is happening.  Increased spread....followed by hospitalizations...followed by deaths. 

Every.  Single.  Thing.

Instead of looking at what other countries have done, invest heavilly in testing and tracing, shutting down for lengthy times and opening up responsibly, we have largely decided to screw it and throw caution to the wind.

And you want to engage in "thoughtful debate" about what exactly?  It's very obvious what needs to be done.  And we won't do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:23:47 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

This is an individual responsibility issue. If you don't want to get the virus, wear a mask, practice social distancing, and don't go out if you have symptoms. The data I've read suggest that it's mostly younger people getting this in Florida, Texas and Arizona, which is why deaths aren't rising nearly as sharply as they did in March-April, and as such they require shorter stays in the ICU, assuming they even need to go there at all!


We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And its not simply a personal responsibility issue.  The young are spreading it to the old and vulnerable.  People who haven't engaged in risky behavior.

Vague. What does "responsibly"  mean?

I'm all for trenching populations and trying our best to control people's access to the elderly, especially those who live in nursing homes, so they won't get infected and die in massive numbers.

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:26:21 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:15:30 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:10:57 PM
And that's all I took out of your post because most of it was uninteresting and uninformative.

And there it is.

Translation: "I didn't like how the statistics you posted contravene my "˜THE SKY IS FALLING!' narrative, so I will choose not to engage in a thoughtful debate about the merit of said statistics, and instead will fire back with a childish platitude. That'll show him!"


Misusing stats is not engaging in thoughtful debate.  It's intellectual dishonestly.  I don't debate with people who are dishonest.

Everything that I predicted would happen when states opened back up without the necessary safety precautions in place is happening.  Increased spread....followed by hospitalizations...followed by deaths. 

Every.  Single.  Thing.

Instead of looking at what other countries have done, invest heavilly in testing and tracing, shutting down for lengthy times and opening up responsibly, we have largely decided to screw it and throw caution to the wind.

And you want to engage in "thoughtful debate" about what exactly?  It's very obvious what needs to be done.  And we won't do it.

I didn't fucking misuse any statistics. I posted them as they were, and derived the obvious conclusion from them that Florida and Texas did exactly what they were supposed to do, while New York and New Jersey, which get tons of praise from the media, utterly botched it. The statistics I posted even prove that we ARE investing in testing, even more than other western countries!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:26:55 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:23:47 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

This is an individual responsibility issue. If you don't want to get the virus, wear a mask, practice social distancing, and don't go out if you have symptoms. The data I've read suggest that it's mostly younger people getting this in Florida, Texas and Arizona, which is why deaths aren't rising nearly as sharply as they did in March-April, and as such they require shorter stays in the ICU, assuming they even need to go there at all!


We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And its not simply a personal responsibility issue.  The young are spreading it to the old and vulnerable.  People who haven't engaged in risky behavior.

Vague. What does "responsibly"  mean?

I'm all for trenching populations and trying our best to control people's access to the elderly, especially those who live in nursing homes, so they won't get infected and die in massive numbers.

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.


Because it wasn't relative to what we were talking about.  Just another way you engage in dishonest debates.

Fine.  Blame him.  Now what?  How do we move forward?  THAT'S what we are talking about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:29:23 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:26:21 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:15:30 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:10:57 PM
And that's all I took out of your post because most of it was uninteresting and uninformative.

And there it is.

Translation: "I didn't like how the statistics you posted contravene my "˜THE SKY IS FALLING!' narrative, so I will choose not to engage in a thoughtful debate about the merit of said statistics, and instead will fire back with a childish platitude. That'll show him!"


Misusing stats is not engaging in thoughtful debate.  It's intellectual dishonestly.  I don't debate with people who are dishonest.

Everything that I predicted would happen when states opened back up without the necessary safety precautions in place is happening.  Increased spread....followed by hospitalizations...followed by deaths. 

Every.  Single.  Thing.

Instead of looking at what other countries have done, invest heavilly in testing and tracing, shutting down for lengthy times and opening up responsibly, we have largely decided to screw it and throw caution to the wind.

And you want to engage in "thoughtful debate" about what exactly?  It's very obvious what needs to be done.  And we won't do it.

I didn't fucking misuse any statistics. I posted them as they were, and derived the obvious conclusion from them that Florida and Texas did exactly what they were supposed to do, while New York and New Jersey, which get tons of praise from the media, utterly botched it. The statistics I posted even prove that we ARE investing in testing, even more than other western countries!


LOL, when you use completely different timeframes, it's not apples to apples.  It's dishonestly.   

Arizona, Florida, and Texas have NOT done what is necessary.  You are blind to what is happening.  Congrats.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 19, 2020, 12:30:23 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 11:59:56 AM... we were all told to flatten the curve early on during the initial spread of the virus. Florida, Arizona and Texas did an excellent job of doing this, seeing as they are only now experiencing their first major wave of cases and they're not being accompanied by a sharp rise in deaths.

Can you explain just what Florida was doing in March and April to flatten their curve?  Because from what I heard, it was pretty much business as usual.  My thought is that they had just gotten lucky that it hadn't reached them yet.

QuoteNew York, by contrast, had a policy up until about five seconds ago that forced hospitals to send elderly people who tested positive for COVID-19 BACK TO THEIR NURSING HOMES.

THAT is reprehensible.

Very true.  Michigan did the same thing.  There's a reason nursing home deaths account for nearly a third of all deaths.  Michigan did it at the same time that the 1000-bed field hospital at TCF (formerly Cobo) was essentially empty - because the field hospital "didn't have the capability" to handle nursing home patients.  Huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:26:55 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:23:47 PM

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.

Because it wasn't relative to what we were talking about.  Just another way you engage in dishonest debates.

Fine.  Blame him.  Now what?  How do we move forward?  THAT'S what we are talking about.

It was, indeed, relative. You called Florida's, Texas', and Arizona's responses to the virus "reprehensible,"  using the logic that, at this point, we know more about the virus and how to prevent it.

I mentioned the nursing home policy because that was actually reprehensible, because New York held onto that policy until May.

Your "dishonest debate"  line is just a cop out. We move forward with the knowledge that a) there is no magic government response to this in a federalist country with 330 million people, b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it, and c) protecting the vulnerable by keeping them away from the rest of the people who need to do their jobs and stimulate the economy is the best way to get through this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 19, 2020, 12:36:09 PM
3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.
Title: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:41:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 19, 2020, 12:36:09 PM
3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.
Yeah, that's probably true. I wasn't trying to attribute the deaths simply to the nursing home policies, but there's an argument to be made that there are a lot more people in NY than in CT, MA and RI. I suppose some of those states, especially CT, are in the New York City metro area, so they felt effects of NY's mismanagement of the virus.

What I find *really* interesting is how NOBODY is talking about California right now. They're having the same rise in cases and deaths as are Florida, Texas and Arizona. Gavin Newsom was pretty strict about lockdowns in his state though... maybe they just don't fit the narrative?

Governed by Democrats: NY, NJ, CT, RI, CA
Governed by Republicans: FL, TX, AZ, MA

Hmmm...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:43:45 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:26:55 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:23:47 PM

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.

Because it wasn't relative to what we were talking about.  Just another way you engage in dishonest debates.

Fine.  Blame him.  Now what?  How do we move forward?  THAT'S what we are talking about.

It was, indeed, relative. You called Florida's, Texas', and Arizona's responses to the virus "reprehensible,"  using the logic that, at this point, we know more about the virus and how to prevent it.

I mentioned the nursing home policy because that was actually reprehensible, because New York held onto that policy until May.

Your "dishonest debate"  line is just a cop out. We move forward with the knowledge that a) there is no magic government response to this in a federalist country with 330 million people, b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it, and c) protecting the vulnerable by keeping them away from the rest of the people who need to do their jobs and stimulate the economy is the best way to get through this.


a) Who asked for a "magic" response?  More dishonesty.  A more coordinated response could definitely have happened and would have worked better.

b) You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how this disease spreads.  The vulnerable have to work.  They have to go out. It is impossible to do what you are suggeting.

c) No it isn't.  Countries who have engaged in the path you suggest have seen both higher death rates AND shi**y economies.  The economy is going to suck until you tamp down the virus. 

It's very obvious.  Countless examples show that.  Your supposed path results in more death, more spread and an economy that still sucks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:44:10 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:41:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 19, 2020, 12:36:09 PM
3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.

For now.
Yeah, that's probably true. I wasn't trying to attribute the deaths simply to the nursing home policies, but there's an argument to be made that there are a lot more people in NY than in CT, MA and RI. I suppose some of those states, especially CT, are in the New York City metro area, so they felt effects of NY's mismanagement of the virus.

What I find *really* interesting is how NOBODY is talking about California right now. They're having the same rise in cases and deaths as are Florida, Texas and Arizona. Gavin Newsom was pretty strict about lockdowns in his state though... maybe they just don't fit the narrative?

Governed by Democrats: NY, NJ, CT, RI, CA
Governed by Republicans: FL, TX, AZ, MA

Hmmm...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 19, 2020, 12:48:40 PM
MA has a Republican governor, although he's a true moderate. (The legislature is under Democratic control.)

"NY and NJ have more people" means nothing when comparing numbers per capita.

Rising really fast: FL, SC (plus ID, but that's just because Boise is most of the state)
Second fastest: TX, LA, MS, AL, GA, southern CA
Northern CA is below all these.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:52:19 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 19, 2020, 12:48:40 PM
"NY and NJ have more people" means nothing when comparing numbers per capita.

True. Really don't know why I mentioned that. I guess I was trying to hypothesize what role the nursing home policies played in the death rates by thinking about population size and how many nursing homes NY has compared to CT.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 01:06:39 PM
There is a real life story of the Tortoise and the Hare taking place (California is the Tortoise and New York is the Hare).  Ignoring the test positivity rate early in the pandemic when few tests were being done, the test positivity rate in California has been hovering between 4-8% this entire pandemic.  Of the 6 most populous states in the country, California is the only state that hasn't seen a test positivity rate in the double digits (TX, FL, NY, PA, IL have all seen test positivity rates of at least 18%).  On the surface that sounds like good news but the problem is what happens if California starts to see test positivity rates of 20-30% in the fall and winter when the state is in the middle of flu season? 

(https://i.imgur.com/PPj9MyT.png)

We have heard about "flattening the curve" but California delaying the big spike in cases now (by reclosing the economy) may mean they will see their spike in cases during the middle of flu season.  That sounds like a worse case scenario.  Or perhaps residents of California are slowly but surely getting infected by the virus and achieving a herd immunity that will prevent the test positivity rate from climbing to 20-30% like all the other populous states have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 19, 2020, 02:44:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 18, 2020, 04:43:58 PM
Weren't you under some pretty heavy restrictions early in the pandemic?  I seem to recall you mentioning things like people being unable to leave the house for even exercise. 

Yep, we were under some pretty heavy restrictions. I had to resort to run back and forth through the corridor, something I would have been called crazy at the start of the year. However since early May we are allowed to go outside for exercise again. Still no races, originally I had one of my favorites scheduled for today that I had to do at my own risk. On the bright side I've already secured one entry for 2021, they sell out in few minutes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 19, 2020, 07:23:29 PM
I noticed today about half the eateries that reopened have gone back to carry-out only.  Doesn't seem to apply to fast feeders, just local mom & pop dine-ins
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NE2 on July 19, 2020, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it
What the fuck does this mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 19, 2020, 08:38:03 PM
Quote from: NE2 on July 19, 2020, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it
What the fuck does this mean?

Will of God (tm) ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 19, 2020, 09:41:17 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 19, 2020, 07:23:29 PM
I noticed today about half the eateries that reopened have gone back to carry-out only.  Doesn't seem to apply to fast feeders, just local mom & pop dine-ins

Most of the fast food places in my town have remained drive-thru only and will likely remain that way until there is a vaccine and/or effective treatment. At least one of them has a yard sign listing a phone number for big rigs to call in to order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 19, 2020, 09:46:44 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 19, 2020, 05:20:11 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 18, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084 (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26301.msg2517603#msg2517603). Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 19, 2020, 09:47:36 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:41:01 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 19, 2020, 12:36:09 PM
3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.
Yeah, that's probably true. I wasn't trying to attribute the deaths simply to the nursing home policies, but there's an argument to be made that there are a lot more people in NY than in CT, MA and RI. I suppose some of those states, especially CT, are in the New York City metro area, so they felt effects of NY's mismanagement of the virus.

Dunno about MA and RI, but here in CT we definitely had a huge nursing home problem. The state tried to set up a system where they'd set some nursing homes aside specifically for covid-positive residents only in the hopes of isolating them from the others, and move people around as needed to try to keep the sick patients and the healthy ones in different places.

This backfired royally, once they started moving people around it just created a way for the virus to start spreading between nursing homes. Our state pubic health commissioner ended up getting fired back in May over this.

QuoteWhat I find *really* interesting is how NOBODY is talking about California right now. They're having the same rise in cases and deaths as are Florida, Texas and Arizona. Gavin Newsom was pretty strict about lockdowns in his state though... maybe they just don't fit the narrative?

This is because government policies don't enable or inhibit the spread of a virus, people's behavior does. Strict rules handed down from the governor's mansion aren't effective if people don't follow them.

New York and New Jersey not only made strict rules, they also threw resources into enforcement and made it clear they weren't fucking around. Connecticut in comparison has been a bit looser with its rules than most of its northeastern peers and hasn't brought the enforcement hammer down very hard... but Connecticut is full of the type of people who even in normal times bathe their kids in Purell and go to the doctor once a week to make sure their freckles aren't skin cancer, so enforcement hasn't been necessary.

Quote from: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 01:06:39 PM
There is a real life story of the Tortoise and the Hare taking place (California is the Tortoise and New York is the Hare).

Quick question: what website are you getting these graphs from?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 19, 2020, 10:04:09 PM
Quote from: NE2 on July 19, 2020, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it
What the fuck does this mean?
I mean we all die eventually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on July 19, 2020, 10:06:43 PM
Quote from: NE2 on July 19, 2020, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it
What the fuck does this mean?
Natural Selection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 19, 2020, 10:18:19 PM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on July 19, 2020, 02:44:27 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 18, 2020, 04:43:58 PM
Weren't you under some pretty heavy restrictions early in the pandemic?  I seem to recall you mentioning things like people being unable to leave the house for even exercise. 

Yep, we were under some pretty heavy restrictions. I had to resort to run back and forth through the corridor, something I would have been called crazy at the start of the year. However since early May we are allowed to go outside for exercise again. Still no races, originally I had one of my favorites scheduled for today that I had to do at my own risk. On the bright side I've already secured one entry for 2021, they sell out in few minutes!

I remember I was preparing to resort to some pretty weird stuff regarding exercise myself upon hearing stories like that and the rumors that were floating around California.  I'm still kind of surprised that Fresno of all places was one of the first places that decided to do a city wide lock down in the entire U.S.  I had a railroad grade even picked up just outside the City Limits just in case I needed it.  It got pretty dicey for awhile when there was a 50 mile radius rule (not a state rule) that was put in place.  I never bothered to put my garage back together since I assumed correctly the state wouldn't hesitate to shut gyms down again.  If anything I've been expanding it whenever I can find things to add.  At minimum the crack down on outdoor exercises State Side are something I don't think will back track.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 19, 2020, 10:21:57 PM
The states that didn't take this pandemic seriously at the beginning are getting hit hard now. These are mostly states where people spent a lot of time outdoors in the nice March/April/May weather, and are now indoors in the A/C breathing re-circulated (and in some cases, COVID-filled) air.

Of course hospitalizations/deaths are increasing much more slowly in the South now than they were in NYC in April. But please, that's not an accomplishment: We're 4-1/2 months in to this thing! Old people are being quite cautious for the most part, there's preventative measures like mask wearing and social distancing, there's less travel, we know more about the virus, etc., etc., etc.

Call the response in Southern states bungled if you wish - it has been less than stellar, and it is truly wild that mask debates are still raging - but I think a big increase in cases in the South in these hot summer months was basically inevitable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 19, 2020, 10:27:02 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 19, 2020, 10:21:57 PM
The states that didn't take this pandemic seriously at the beginning are getting hit hard now. These are mostly states where people spent a lot of time outdoors in the nice March/April/May weather, and are now indoors in the A/C breathing re-circulated (and in some cases, COVID-filled) air.

Of course hospitalizations/deaths are increasing much more slowly in the South now than they were in NYC in April. But please, that's not an accomplishment: We're 4-1/2 months in to this thing! Old people are being quite cautious for the most part, there's preventative measures like mask wearing and social distancing, there's less travel, we know more about the virus, etc., etc., etc.

Call the response in Southern states bungled if you wish - it has been less than stellar, and it is truly wild that mask debates are still raging - but I think a big increase in cases in the South in these hot summer months was basically inevitable.

A lot that did take it seriously are being hit just as hard anyways, sure seems that way here in California.  People probably don't want to hear this but there was probably no stopping a run of the virus once it got here.  I don't think any of the States that had early lock downs even had the goal of "stopping the virus" but rather keeping hospitalizations from getting out of control like they did in Europe and NYC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CoreySamson on July 19, 2020, 10:31:00 PM
I'm just going to leave this here:

Quote from: CoreySamson on June 06, 2020, 11:07:29 PM
I must start out by saying that originally I thought a possible second wave would not happen at all, but the events of the past week changed that for me. Now I'm thinking a second wave is all but assured.

With all these protests going around I'm betting we're going to see a large increase in cases in the big cities where covid was dying out. . .

If that stupid police officer had not murdered Floyd, I'd bet covid would be inconsequential by July. Since he did, I'm predicting covid will stick around for at least until September.


Quote from: webny99 on July 19, 2020, 10:21:57 PM
The states that didn't take this pandemic seriously at the beginning are getting hit hard now. These are mostly states where people spent a lot of time outdoors in the nice March/April/May weather, and are now indoors in the A/C breathing re-circulated (and in some cases, COVID-filled) air.

Of course hospitalizations/deaths are increasing much more slowly in the South now than they were in NYC in April. But please, that's not an accomplishment: We're 4-1/2 months in to this thing! Old people are being quite cautious for the most part, there's preventative measures like mask wearing and social distancing, there's less travel, we know more about the virus, etc., etc., etc.

Call the response in Southern states bungled if you wish - it has been less than stellar, and it is truly wild that mask debates are still raging - but I think a big increase in cases in the South in these hot summer months was basically inevitable.

I completely agree with your statement an increase in cases in the South in the summer was inevitable; the fact that everyone is inside to get out of the heat only makes things worse.

I also think it doesn't really matter whether your state had a good response to Covid or not; I think every single place is going to get it sooner or later. My county had a great initial response, only about 100 cases per week in April and May, but now we've got almost 200 cases per day right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 10:33:24 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 19, 2020, 09:47:36 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 01:06:39 PM
There is a real life story of the Tortoise and the Hare taking place (California is the Tortoise and New York is the Hare).

Quick question: what website are you getting these graphs from?

Worldometer and Daily State-by-State Testing Trends from Johns Hopkins.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 11:07:57 PM
Daily deaths in NYC have declined by 98% since its peak in April (going from 597 daily deaths on April 7th to single digit deaths today).  NYC enters phase 4 of their reopening on Monday and it's refreshing that the largest city in the country can get back to living.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Rothman on July 19, 2020, 11:40:36 PM
...until they can't because of infected people coming into NY from the states on the restriction list.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 11:55:05 PM
Neighborhoods in Queens are finding that up to 68% of people are testing positive for anti-bodies.  Hopefully communities in NYC have gained a level of herd immunity that will protect its citizenry from a "second wave".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 20, 2020, 12:26:39 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 19, 2020, 11:55:05 PM
Neighborhoods in Queens are finding that up to 68% of people are testing positive for anti-bodies.  Hopefully communities in NYC have gained a level of herd immunity that will protect its citizenry from a "second wave".

So, devil in the details: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

There was a medical clinic in Corona (yes, that's the name of the neighborhood) where 68% of people who walked in and requested an antibody test got a positive result from it. This is the results from people asking for tests, not a random sample - so no you can't say 68% of the neighborhood's population has antibodies. The number is almost certainly lower this, since people going to the clinic asking for tests are going to be people who have some reason to suspect they may have had it.

It's also only one clinic in one neighborhood. The numbers elsewhere are not as high.

NYC certainly has taken a pretty big bite out of things - more randomized testing back at the end of April suggested over 20% of the city's population may have been infected. This is substantial enough to slow down transmission, but not to prevent it from being able to take off again if people aren't careful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 12:55:07 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 20, 2020, 12:59:35 AM
Quote from: NE2 on July 19, 2020, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it
What the fuck does this mean?
It means exactly what it says.

Flattening the curve was never about reducing the total number of cases; it was about spreading them out over time. This virus is unprecedented and extremely transmissible, much more so than other coronaviruses (influenza, the common cold, etc.).

The medical community has recognized for months at this point that a certain percentage of the population is just going to be infected no matter what, and the evidence that government action can reduce that percentage is not sound.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wolfiefrick on July 20, 2020, 01:09:09 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 12:55:07 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...
New Zealand didn't lock down for much longer than we did. They just benefit from the fact that they're an island country of 5 million people.

They used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand also saw a total of only 1,154 cases and 22 deaths, but in a country less than one-sixtieth the size of the United States and without separation of powers, it's a lot easier for them to take very swift action.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 20, 2020, 01:54:52 AM
An interesting elimination list - the following counties have yet to report a single case:
- Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, AK
- Yakutiat Borough, AK
- Modoc County, CA
- Kiowa County, CO
- Kalawao County, HI
- Butte County, ID
- Rawlins County, KS
- Wallace County, KS
- Wichita County, KS
- Lake of the Woods County, MN
- Carter County, MT
- Daniels County, MT
- McCone County, MT
- Mineral County, MT
- Petroleum County, MT
- Phillips County, MT
- Powder River County, MT
- Powell County, MT
- Judith Basin County, MT
- Arthur County, NE
- Blaine County, NE
- Brown County, NE
- Grant County, NE
- Hayes County, NE
- Keya Paha County, NE
- Logan County, NE
- Loup County, NE
- Perkins County, NE
- Wheeler County, NE
- Esmeralda County, NV
- De Baca County, NM
- Adams County, ND
- Harding County, SD
- Potter County, SD
- King County, TX
- Loving County, TX
- Sterling County, TX
- Daggett County, UT
- Wayne County, UT
- Martinsville City, VA
- Doddridge County, WV

On a map that's these counties:
(https://i.imgur.com/tROd68M.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 20, 2020, 07:37:36 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 20, 2020, 12:59:35 AM
Quote from: NE2 on July 19, 2020, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:32:54 PM
b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it
What the fuck does this mean?
It means exactly what it says.

Flattening the curve was never about reducing the total number of cases; it was about spreading them out over time. This virus is unprecedented and extremely transmissible, much more so than other coronaviruses (influenza, the common cold, etc.).

The medical community has recognized for months at this point that a certain percentage of the population is just going to be infected no matter what, and the evidence that government action can reduce that percentage is not sound.

To that end I don't even recall a major public official even making a statement about stopping the virus.  A lot of people in the general public seem to that is possible when it never really was even with the lockdowns were in full force. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 20, 2020, 07:43:10 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 20, 2020, 01:54:52 AM
An interesting elimination list - the following counties have yet to report a single case:
- Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, AK
- Yakutiat Borough, AK
- Modoc County, CA
- Kiowa County, CO
- Kalawao County, HI
- Butte County, ID
- Rawlins County, KS
- Wallace County, KS
- Wichita County, KS
- Lake of the Woods County, MN
- Carter County, MT
- Daniels County, MT
- McCone County, MT
- Mineral County, MT
- Petroleum County, MT
- Phillips County, MT
- Powder River County, MT
- Powell County, MT
- Judith Basin County, MT
- Arthur County, NE
- Blaine County, NE
- Brown County, NE
- Grant County, NE
- Hayes County, NE
- Keya Paha County, NE
- Logan County, NE
- Loup County, NE
- Perkins County, NE
- Wheeler County, NE
- Esmeralda County, NV
- De Baca County, NM
- Adams County, ND
- Harding County, SD
- Potter County, SD
- King County, TX
- Loving County, TX
- Sterling County, TX
- Daggett County, UT
- Martinsville City, VA
- Wirt County, WV

On a map that's these counties:
(https://i.imgur.com/wd52a02.png)

Modoc County is an interesting place being geographically isolated by the Cascades and Great Basin Desert.  Esmeralda County is essentially close to the size of some East Coast states and near devoid of human life.  Goldfield once had a population of about 10,000 but might have recently dipped under 200.  I don't believe there is even an active gas station in Esmeralda County anymore, most stop in Tonopah or Beatty for services. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 08:49:07 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 19, 2020, 09:46:44 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 19, 2020, 05:20:11 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 18, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084 (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26301.msg2517603#msg2517603). Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.


Yes.  Message board DOT guy knows causes of death accross his state.  Clearly we should all take your word on this issue.

If anything, deaths from Covid are being undercounted.  Here is an actual statistical analysis:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

"Results:  There were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19—reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths."

IOW, more people have died than normal in 2020.  That excess is more than have been attributed to Covid. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 20, 2020, 08:52:16 AM
I'm not surpriseed by Kalawao and Loving counties having not been hit by the coronavirus, as they are the two least populated counties (and in the case of Kalawao it has been isolated for a long time). The real outlier is Wirt County, surprised to see a corona-free county that far East.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 20, 2020, 08:55:22 AM
It's Doddridge County, not Wirt County. (The graphic above highlights the correct county.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 20, 2020, 09:58:50 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 20, 2020, 01:09:09 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 12:55:07 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...
New Zealand didn't lock down for much longer than we did. They just benefit from the fact that they're an island country of 5 million people.

They used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand also saw a total of only 1,154 cases and 22 deaths, but in a country less than one-sixtieth the size of the United States and without separation of powers, it's a lot easier for them to take very swift action.
Some other factors that helped NZ:
1. No direct flights to Europe
2. Very few direct flights to the early Asian hot spots
3. Its total population is around 60% of the population of just the five boroughs of New York City

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 20, 2020, 10:07:12 AM
Quote from: ftballfan on July 20, 2020, 09:58:50 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 20, 2020, 01:09:09 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 12:55:07 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 19, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...
New Zealand didn't lock down for much longer than we did. They just benefit from the fact that they're an island country of 5 million people.

They used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand also saw a total of only 1,154 cases and 22 deaths, but in a country less than one-sixtieth the size of the United States and without separation of powers, it's a lot easier for them to take very swift action.
Some other factors that helped NZ:
1. No direct flights to Europe
2. Very few direct flights to the early Asian hot spots
3. Its total population is around 60% of the population of just the five boroughs of New York City



How countries were affected initially had a lot to do with population density and the frequency of international travel to/from the country.

How countries were affected once everybody had a better grasp of how widespread the virus was and how it spread had a lot to do with how effectively the government managed the situation and how effectively the people followed the government's management of the situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 11:18:19 AM
Quote from: wolfiefrick on July 20, 2020, 01:09:09 AMThey used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand did not actually progress to Level 1 (no restrictions other than mandatory managed quarantine at the border) until after they confirmed active cases had gone down all the way to zero.  Most US states had weaker lockdowns to begin with and moved all the way to full decontrol (de facto if not de jure) while they still had hundreds if not thousands of active cases.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 20, 2020, 07:37:36 AMTo that end I don't even recall a major public official even making a statement about stopping the virus.  A lot of people in the general public seem to that is possible when it never really was even with the lockdowns were in full force.

I think New Zealand and other countries that successfully enacted full containment define the scope of what was possible.  I do agree that few if any governors would have put their necks in nooses by promising it even within the borders of their own states.  Effective federal coordination would have been required for that to happen, and three years is long enough to form a realistic view of the likelihood of that happening under our current national leadership.

The fundamental reality is that covid-19 obeys an exponential growth law if no control measures are undertaken.  This means that timing is important and full control is achievable at relatively low cost if you start early.  This means no-one in the chain of authority shrugging his or her shoulders and saying "Can't be done" while there are still just a few cases.  The costs only go up from that point, and in addition to direct costs they start to include indirect costs from forgone economic activity, since a minimum-effort lockdown that starts late and ends early will not pull the economy back to 100% output.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 11:29:43 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.


No one has presented actual evidence otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 20, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 12:10:53 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.

So you're saying people with cancer should forego care?

This is what we've come to. Most people with cancer can't help they got cancer. Most people hospitalized with Covid-19 that aren't elderly are not taking care of themselves physically. I am NOT making a choice between someone who was already sick having to forego medical care and someone with Coronavirus. Ever.

SEWIGuy - so you're calling me a liar? I pointed out specifics from personal experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 20, 2020, 12:12:53 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 12:10:53 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.

So you're saying people with cancer should forego care?

This is what we've come to. Most people with cancer can't help they got cancer. Most people hospitalized with Covid-19 that aren't elderly are not taking care of themselves physically. I am NOT making a choice between someone who was already sick having to forego medical care and someone with Coronavirus. Ever.

SEWIGuy - so you're calling me a liar? I pointed out specifics from personal experience.

My Wife's Cousin has pancreatic cancer and has had a lot of treatments deferred in lieu of COVID, it definitely is a real phenomenon. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 12:33:33 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 11:43:21 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.
Not even that. Hospitals are laying off "regular care" staff and loosing money - and a big concern is that people postpone treatment as much as they can (I, for one,  postponed my annual physical and dental cleaning)
Not completely unfounded - a friend of mine had to go to ER and brought back the virus. He had minor cold, his wife had it on a serious side.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/01/americans-are-delaying-medical-care-its-devastating-health-care-providers/?arc404=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ET21 on July 20, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue
-Gyms can only have 10 people in personal classes
-6 people per table max at restaurants
-No spa services that require the removal of masks

Overall, Illinois has been steady with 800-1200 cases per day the past month and a positive rate around 3%. But some hotspots are starting to pop in city neighborhoods known for their bars and clubs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 12:40:16 PM
It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 01:02:37 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 12:40:16 PM
It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.
What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 01:05:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 01:02:37 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 12:40:16 PM
It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.
What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 01:11:33 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 01:05:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 01:02:37 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 12:40:16 PM
It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.
What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.
Well, wouldn't that be a constitutional level challenge?
As for "done well"... Do it American way! We definitely need a precedent when someone without a mask is shot, and shooter is cleared on "self defense against deadly threat" grounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 01:37:48 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 01:05:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 01:02:37 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 12:40:16 PM
It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.
What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.

And how are you going to close a border like this one: https://goo.gl/maps/etxLRub45TW14bWRA ?
Just between Pennsylvania and New York, there are 7 freeway crossings and hundreds of smaller roads along 328 miles of state border, of which about 245 miles are on land.

And that's just New York-Pennsylvania.  Texas-New Mexico runs for about 540 miles, mostly as a land border.  Then we run into the constitutional problem of regulating interstate commerce, which is the purview of the federal government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 01:43:21 PM
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it.  :ded:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 01:45:46 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 08:49:07 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 19, 2020, 09:46:44 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 19, 2020, 05:20:11 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 18, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084 (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26301.msg2517603#msg2517603). Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.


Yes.  Message board DOT guy knows causes of death accross his state.  Clearly we should all take your word on this issue.

I live here. I know. If I was so inclined to waste time with you and your crappy attitude, I'd dig up the public statements from next of kin in the Carter and Lincoln county cases and post them. In the Carter County case, I'm friends with one of the deceased's childhood friends.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 11:29:43 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.


No one has presented actual evidence otherwise.

I guess you missed my comment about the wife of a Kentucky congressman who died of a heart valve condition. She had been scheduled for elective surgery to correct that problem but it got delayed when the governor ordered elective surgeries to cease in anticipation of a wave of COVID hospitalizations that never came. Confirmed by a mutual friend.

I'm hopeful that sometime in the future, the congressman will make a public statement about it. Right now everyone's sensitive to politicizing the issue because the Kentucky attorney general has joined lawsuits challenging the legality of the governor's executive orders.

Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 01:37:48 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 01:05:02 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 01:02:37 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 12:40:16 PM
It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.
What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.

And how are you going to close a border like this one: https://goo.gl/maps/etxLRub45TW14bWRA ?
Just between Pennsylvania and New York, there are 7 freeway crossings and hundreds of smaller roads along 328 miles of state border, of which about 245 miles are on land.

And that's just New York-Pennsylvania.  Texas-New Mexico runs for about 540 miles, mostly as a land border.  Then we run into the constitutional problem of regulating interstate commerce, which is the purview of the federal government.

Kentucky's governor instituted a travel ban. It got struck down in federal court.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 01:51:47 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

Well, you either have a shutdown of non-essential care, or you start having shutdowns of essential care because all the covid patients are crowding everyone else out of the hospital. See my post a few pages back about what's going on in Oklahoma–a coworker's mom was denied ICU care at all in Oklahoma City and ended up having to be transported to Lawton.

Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 01:43:21 PM
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it.  :ded:

Well...it does, in a manner of speaking. Bars have been serving as superspreaders nationwide. Mostly because drunk people aren't inclined to follow social distancing or wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 02:04:55 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 01:45:46 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 08:49:07 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 19, 2020, 09:46:44 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 19, 2020, 05:20:11 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 18, 2020, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 18, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM
I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084 (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=26301.msg2517603#msg2517603). Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.


Yes.  Message board DOT guy knows causes of death accross his state.  Clearly we should all take your word on this issue.

I live here. I know. If I was so inclined to waste time with you and your crappy attitude, I'd dig up the public statements from next of kin in the Carter and Lincoln county cases and post them. In the Carter County case, I'm friends with one of the deceased's childhood friends.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 11:29:43 AM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 20, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 09:16:41 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 20, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.


No one has presented actual evidence otherwise.

I guess you missed my comment about the wife of a Kentucky congressman who died of a heart valve condition.

Well, that's an example of something that may or may not be a problem.  There is no evidence to suggest that massive numbers of people are dying due to delayed health care.

But regardless, the solution is to manage Covid so people can and will access health care.  Again, you don't have your cause correct.  The cause IS the pandemic.

The fact:  A statistically significant greater number of people are dying this year.  (That shoots down your "but they really aren't dying of Covid" farce.)  Those people are dying mostly from Covid, or because people can't access or won't access health care they normally would.

So you want to save lives?  Then we should be doing what we can to manage this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 20, 2020, 02:07:41 PM
Daily deaths aren't rising very fast compared to April.   It's taking a week for daily deaths to nudge up 6.7% whereas back in April we were seeing daily deaths more than double during the same time period. 

-The 7-day average daily deaths from 4/1 thru 4/8 increased from 741 to 1642 (222% increase).
-The 7-day average daily deaths from 7/12 thru 7/19 increased from 741 to 791 (6.7% increase).

*This data was taken from Worldometers.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 89 on July 20, 2020, 02:43:39 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 20, 2020, 01:54:52 AM
An interesting elimination list - the following counties have yet to report a single case:

On a map that's these counties:
(https://i.imgur.com/wd52a02.png)

Wayne County, Utah should also be on there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:47:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM

Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

Why do people keep making that comparison?  Shirt and shoes are not required by state order.  Masks are.  Not the same thing.

Clothing in general is required in many jurisdictions, but that is because even innocent nudity is considered indecent exposure there.  Note that, in some jurisdictions, the requirement for a woman to wear a shirt has been struck down as sexist.  In Yew York, for example, a person out in public without shirt or shoes or face mask could only be cited for the lack of a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:50:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 20, 2020, 02:57:43 PM
Arizona has seen their test positivity rate drop over the past week.  In addition the average number of daily cases has dropped by 18% from their peak of 3697 cases on July 7th to 3022 cases today.  Arizona may finally be past their peak and start to see cases drop precipitously.

(https://i.imgur.com/DVVAB4L.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:50:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?

I don't know that we need as strict of a shutdown as we had previously. Requiring masks in all buildings, restricting buildings to 25% of capacity, and limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period should be enough to get things under control if everybody would actually do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 03:03:29 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:50:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?

I don't know that we need as strict of a shutdown as we had previously. Requiring masks in all buildings, restricting buildings to 25% of capacity, and limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period should be enough to get things under control if everybody would actually do it.
That may be not as strict as we had before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 03:07:10 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:50:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?

I don't know that we need as strict of a shutdown as we had previously. Requiring masks in all buildings, restricting buildings to 25% of capacity, and limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period should be enough to get things under control if everybody would actually do it.
What if it doesn't? You may hope for the best- but still need to have a backup plan...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 03:07:10 PMWhat if it doesn't? You may hope for the best- but still need to have a backup plan...

Backup plan:  Rolling lockdowns (organized on a countywide basis in much of the country, this representing probably the best compromise between statewide uniformity and over-regulation in counties that have no cases) in areas that meet trigger criteria.  This continues until a vaccine is developed.  Depending on how long the immunity lasts, we either vaccinate everybody as we reopen, or we try to vaccinate as many people as possible within a short period and have a coordinated nationwide lockdown to freeze out outbreaks among people for whom the vaccine doesn't work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 03:25:23 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 20, 2020, 02:07:41 PM
Daily deaths aren't rising very fast compared to April.   It's taking a week for daily deaths to nudge up 6.7% whereas back in April we were seeing daily deaths more than double during the same time period. 

-The 7-day average daily deaths from 4/1 thru 4/8 increased from 741 to 1642 (222% increase).
-The 7-day average daily deaths from 7/12 thru 7/19 increased from 741 to 791 (6.7% increase).

*This data was taken from Worldometers.

And it looks like this is the peak for some states.
https://covid19-projections.com/ (which has been one of the most accurate models so far)

Florida: https://covid19-projections.com/us-fl
Texas: https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx
Iowa: https://covid19-projections.com/us-ia
Georgia: https://covid19-projections.com/us-ga
California: https://covid19-projections.com/us-ca
California actually looks like it may be just past the hump.

New York and New Jersey lead the way in the number and percentage of people infected:
https://covid19-projections.com/us-nj
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ny
And it looks like New Jersey is in for a little bump in the future.

Hawai'i, in spite of a quarantine focused on travelers from the rest of the country, is increasing quite a bit: https://covid19-projections.com/us-hi

South Dakota, which never shut down, has reproduction number of 0.95, below New York's and New Jersey's: https://covid19-projections.com/us-sd

Maine, which wants quarantine from all out-of-state travelers, has a reproduction number of 1.07: https://covid19-projections.com/us-me
They also have increasing numbers of newly infected and total infected.

To use some other comparisons, Ontario has a reproduction number similar to a lot of US states at 0.98: https://covid19-projections.com/canada-ontario
As does Quebec at 0.97: https://covid19-projections.com/canada-quebec

Sweden actually looks pretty good.  A reproduction number of 0.88, and a total infected of 11.1%, below New York and New Jersey: https://covid19-projections.com/sweden

The UK; however, has a reproductive number of 0.97, above that of South Dakota: https://covid19-projections.com/united-kingdom

By contrast, Australia seems to be in for an increase, even with controls, in the future: https://covid19-projections.com/australia
Their reproductive number is 1.02.

As for India, they have a reproductive number of 1.05 and appear to be in for a world of hurt in the future: https://covid19-projections.com/india

Japan seems to be on a steady increase: https://covid19-projections.com/japan

Iran does seem to be in a world of hurt, with a peak that just keeps growing: https://covid19-projections.com/iran

South Korea, by contrast to most, seems to have a handle on it: https://covid19-projections.com/south-korea

Some maps:
US: https://covid19-projections.com/maps/
Europe: https://covid19-projections.com/maps-europe/
World: https://covid19-projections.com/maps-global/
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 20, 2020, 03:37:10 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 01:51:47 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 01:43:21 PM
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it.  :ded:

Well...it does, in a manner of speaking. Bars have been serving as superspreaders nationwide. Mostly because drunk people aren't inclined to follow social distancing or wear a mask.

But why does it matter whether or not the bar serves food? That should be completely irrelevant from an epidemiological perspective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 20, 2020, 03:38:29 PM
Quote from: Eth on July 20, 2020, 03:37:10 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 01:51:47 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 01:43:21 PM
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it.  :ded:

Well...it does, in a manner of speaking. Bars have been serving as superspreaders nationwide. Mostly because drunk people aren't inclined to follow social distancing or wear a mask.

But why does it matter whether or not the bar serves food? That should be completely irrelevant from an epidemiological perspective.

Bars that don't serve food tend to have people closer together for longer periods of time compared to bars/restaurants that serve food.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 03:44:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:47:22 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM
Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.
I'd like to know what rights they're talking about. In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

Why do people keep making that comparison?  Shirt and shoes are not required by state order.  Masks are.  Not the same thing.

Clothing in general is required in many jurisdictions, but that is because even innocent nudity is considered indecent exposure there.  Note that, in some jurisdictions, the requirement for a woman to wear a shirt has been struck down as sexist.  In Yew York, for example, a person out in public without shirt or shoes or face mask could only be cited for the lack of a mask.

People keep making the comparison because it's an easy and understandable one to make. Even though it's not exactly the same from a legal perspective, it doesn't make sense to complain about wearing a mask, but not about wearing a shirt/shoes. There's not even really a health-related basis for shoes/shirts requirements like there is for masks.

They're also similar in the sense that it matters more when you're indoors and in close proximity to others. When exercising on your own, I couldn't care less if you have a mask, shirt, or shoes. I just went for a walk today sans two of those items, maintained my social distance, and no one cared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:48:02 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
This continues until a vaccine is developed.

Not a good plan.  What if the vaccine is four years away?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 03:51:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:48:02 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
This continues until a vaccine is developed.

Not a good plan.  What if the vaccine is four years away?
I think that we will have at least a somewhat effective vaccine sometime next year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:51:56 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 03:44:23 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:47:22 PM

Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM

Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about. In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

Why do people keep making that comparison?  Shirt and shoes are not required by state order.  Masks are.  Not the same thing.

Clothing in general is required in many jurisdictions, but that is because even innocent nudity is considered indecent exposure there.  Note that, in some jurisdictions, the requirement for a woman to wear a shirt has been struck down as sexist.  In Yew York, for example, a person out in public without shirt or shoes or face mask could only be cited for the lack of a mask.

People keep making the comparison because it's an easy and understandable one to make. Even though it's not exactly the same from a legal perspective, it doesn't make sense to complain about wearing a mask, but not about wearing a shirt/shoes. There's not even really a health-related basis for shoes/shirts requirements like there is for masks.

They're also similar in the sense that it matters more when you're indoors and in close proximity to others. When exercising on your own, I couldn't care less if you have a mask, shirt, or shoes. I just went for a walk today sans two of those items, maintained my social distance, and no one cared.

But, if a sheriff publicly stated that officers wouldn't be citing citizens for going barefoot because such would be infringing on their rights, I'm betting there wouldn't be the same level of whining in response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:52:42 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 03:51:31 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:48:02 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
This continues until a vaccine is developed.

Not a good plan.  What if the vaccine is four years away?

I think that we will have at least a somewhat effective vaccine sometime next year.

No offense, but action plans should be based on "I think".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 20, 2020, 04:00:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:51:56 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 03:44:23 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:47:22 PM

Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 18, 2020, 09:14:18 AM

Quote from: US71 on July 18, 2020, 09:08:07 AM
Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about. In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

Why do people keep making that comparison?  Shirt and shoes are not required by state order.  Masks are.  Not the same thing.

Clothing in general is required in many jurisdictions, but that is because even innocent nudity is considered indecent exposure there.  Note that, in some jurisdictions, the requirement for a woman to wear a shirt has been struck down as sexist.  In Yew York, for example, a person out in public without shirt or shoes or face mask could only be cited for the lack of a mask.

People keep making the comparison because it's an easy and understandable one to make. Even though it's not exactly the same from a legal perspective, it doesn't make sense to complain about wearing a mask, but not about wearing a shirt/shoes. There's not even really a health-related basis for shoes/shirts requirements like there is for masks.

They're also similar in the sense that it matters more when you're indoors and in close proximity to others. When exercising on your own, I couldn't care less if you have a mask, shirt, or shoes. I just went for a walk today sans two of those items, maintained my social distance, and no one cared.

But, if a sheriff publicly stated that officers wouldn't be citing citizens for going barefoot because such would be infringing on their rights, I'm betting there wouldn't be the same level of whining in response.

Wearing shirts and shoes aren't laws, at least not anywhere I've been. They're requirements created by business owners. The only way you could get arrested would be to violate the business' requirement and then refuse to leave when asked, at which point you're being arrested for trespassing and not for failure to wear shirt/shoes.

Also, shoe requirements are as much if not more for liability reasons than for public health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 04:00:39 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:52:42 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 03:51:31 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:48:02 PM

Quote from: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
This continues until a vaccine is developed.

Not a good plan.  What if the vaccine is four years away?

I think that we will have at least a somewhat effective vaccine sometime next year.

No offense, but action plans should be based on "I think".
It can, but it also has to have a part
Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 03:07:10 PM
What if it doesn't? You may hope for the best- but still need to have a backup plan...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 04:00:29 PM
Wearing shirts and shoes aren't laws, at least not anywhere I've been. They're requirements created by business owners. The only way you could get arrested would be to violate the business' requirement and then refuse to leave when asked, at which point you're being arrested for trespassing and not for failure to wear shirt/shoes.

Also, shoe requirements are as much if not more for liability reasons than for public health.

Precisely my point.

If the governor passed an order to require shirt and shoes, one might reasonably expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.  Similarly, when governors pass orders to require masks, it's likewise reasonable to expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 20, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 04:00:29 PM
Wearing shirts and shoes aren't laws, at least not anywhere I've been. They're requirements created by business owners. The only way you could get arrested would be to violate the business' requirement and then refuse to leave when asked, at which point you're being arrested for trespassing and not for failure to wear shirt/shoes.

Also, shoe requirements are as much if not more for liability reasons than for public health.

Precisely my point.

If the governor passed an order to require shirt and shoes, one might reasonably expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.  Similarly, when governors pass orders to require masks, it's likewise reasonable to expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.

I just explained how they're different. Requiring shoes isn't a public health issue, requiring masks is. You don't endanger anybody else by not wearing shoes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:14:20 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
I just explained how they're different. Requiring shoes isn't a public health issue, requiring masks is. You don't endanger anybody else by not wearing shoes.

Right, but that's not how the argument went.  People bring up shirt and shoes in order to knock down the premise that wearing a mask infringes on people's rights.  They say, if the law can require you to wear shirt and shoes, then it can require you to wear a mask.

And that's why I brought up the fact that the law doesn't require you to wear shirt and shoes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 04:16:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:51:56 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 03:44:23 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:47:22 PM
Why do people keep making that comparison?  Shirt and shoes are not required by state order.  Masks are.  Not the same thing.
...
People keep making the comparison because it's an easy and understandable one to make. Even though it's not exactly the same from a legal perspective, it doesn't make sense to complain about wearing a mask, but not about wearing a shirt/shoes. There's not even really a health-related basis for shoes/shirts requirements like there is for masks.
They're also similar in the sense that it matters more when you're indoors and in close proximity to others. When exercising on your own, I couldn't care less if you have a mask, shirt, or shoes. I just went for a walk today sans two of those items, maintained my social distance, and no one cared.

But, if a sheriff publicly stated that officers wouldn't be citing citizens for going barefoot because such would be infringing on their rights, I'm betting there wouldn't be the same level of whining in response.

I'm not sure rights infringement would or could ever be part of that conversation, unless it was somehow public-health related the way masks are.


Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:52:42 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 03:51:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:48:02 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
This continues until a vaccine is developed.
Not a good plan.  What if the vaccine is four years away?
I think that we will have at least a somewhat effective vaccine sometime next year.

No offense, but action plans shouldn't be based on "I think".

FTFY (I think)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 20, 2020, 04:16:33 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:14:20 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
I just explained how they're different. Requiring shoes isn't a public health issue, requiring masks is. You don't endanger anybody else by not wearing shoes.

Right, but that's not how the argument went.  People bring up shirt and shoes in order to knock down the premise that wearing a mask infringes on people's rights.  They say, if the law can require you to wear shirt and shoes, then it can require you to wear a mask.

And that's why I brought up the fact that the law doesn't require you to wear shirt and shoes.

People use the wrong reasoning to come up with the right conclusion all the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 04:18:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 04:00:29 PM
Wearing shirts and shoes aren't laws, at least not anywhere I've been. They're requirements created by business owners. The only way you could get arrested would be to violate the business' requirement and then refuse to leave when asked, at which point you're being arrested for trespassing and not for failure to wear shirt/shoes.

Also, shoe requirements are as much if not more for liability reasons than for public health.

Precisely my point.

If the governor passed an order to require shirt and shoes, one might reasonably expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.  Similarly, when governors pass orders to require masks, it's likewise reasonable to expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.
"reasonable" is not a good word here.  Until your reasoning is "yeah, since elected officials are less than brightest and smartest people".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: oscar on July 20, 2020, 04:21:42 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 03:25:23 PM
South Dakota, which never shut down

Not statewide. But some local restrictions, such as for the state's largest city (after a meatpacking plant outbreak), its second-largest city, and some Sioux reservations in the western part of the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:22:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 04:16:04 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:51:56 PM
No offense, but action plans shouldn't be based on "I think".

FTFY (I think)?

Dang, man, you are the MASTER at finding my typos!  Gotta keep me humble, so thank you.

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 04:16:33 PM
People use the wrong reasoning to come up with the right conclusion all the time.

Yeah, my comments weren't so much to be in favor of or against mask orders.  Just that they have nothing to do with shirt and shoes requirements.

Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 04:18:42 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:06:44 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 04:00:29 PM
Wearing shirts and shoes aren't laws, at least not anywhere I've been. They're requirements created by business owners. The only way you could get arrested would be to violate the business' requirement and then refuse to leave when asked, at which point you're being arrested for trespassing and not for failure to wear shirt/shoes.

Also, shoe requirements are as much if not more for liability reasons than for public health.

Precisely my point.

If the governor passed an order to require shirt and shoes, one might reasonably expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.  Similarly, when governors pass orders to require masks, it's likewise reasonable to expect local politicians and sheriffs to balk at that.

"reasonable" is not a good word here.  Until your reasoning is "yeah, since elected officials are less than brightest and smartest people".

Actually, it might be the ambiguity of the word "expect".  I didn't mean it to say reasonable people should want their mayors and sheriffs to go against governor mask orders.  Rather, I meant it to say that reasonable people should not be surprised when they do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 04:26:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:50:10 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 19, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?


I think shutting down to "re-flatten the curve," then opening up thoughtfully is the way to go.  But that means bars don't open until this is over.  Restaurants at limited capacity, etc.

When outbreaks occur, you do aggressive contact tracing and testing to avoid having to lock down again.  And if you do, you have it be geographically limited to where it is occurring.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 20, 2020, 04:29:53 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 03:51:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:48:02 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 20, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
This continues until a vaccine is developed.

Not a good plan.  What if the vaccine is four years away?
I think that we will have at least a somewhat effective vaccine sometime next year.

Some preliminary trials are showing promise, though we're still a ways from "official" testing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 04:45:45 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:22:01 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 20, 2020, 04:18:42 PM
"reasonable" is not a good word here.  Until your reasoning is "yeah, since elected officials are less than brightest and smartest people".

Actually, it might be the ambiguity of the word "expect".  I didn't mean it to say reasonable people should want their mayors and sheriffs to go against governor mask orders.  Rather, I meant it to say that reasonable people should not be surprised when they do.
well, it is reasonable to expect that some people are unreasonable. It it reasonable to expect elected  leaders to be unreasonable? Well, some would say  it is a part of a politician's job description.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 04:49:27 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:22:01 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 20, 2020, 04:16:04 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 03:51:56 PM
No offense, but action plans shouldn't be based on "I think".
FTFY (I think)?

Dang, man, you are the MASTER at finding my typos!  Gotta keep me humble, so thank you.

Oh, anytime! :)

It's just how we roll
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 02:47:22 PM
In Yew York




(Dang, forgive me... but that set up was just too perfect!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 04:26:31 PM
But that means bars don't open until this is over.  Restaurants at limited capacity, etc.

Oh, thanks for bringing that up again.  I forgot to comment earlier, when I was reading through five pages of new posts since I was last on...

Restaurant bars (such as, say, Chili's), in my opinion, are different beasts to traditional bars.  Part of the point of going to a bar is to be close to other people.  Restaurant bars and hotel bars, though, don't seem to have that same sort of vibe.  So that puts me on the fence about opening bars or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 20, 2020, 05:03:51 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 04:26:31 PM
But that means bars don't open until this is over.  Restaurants at limited capacity, etc.

Oh, thanks for bringing that up again.  I forgot to comment earlier, when I was reading through five pages of new posts since I was last on...

Restaurant bars (such as, say, Chili's), in my opinion, are different beasts to traditional bars.  Part of the point of going to a bar is to be close to other people.  Restaurant bars and hotel bars, though, don't seem to have that same sort of vibe.  So that puts me on the fence about opening bars or not.

Allow bars to be open if they serve customers in the same manner as a restaurant--seated at a table and ordering from a server. Prohibit sitting at the actual bar or otherwise ordering directly from the bartender. That's where you lose control of how spaced out people are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 05:29:41 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"


No rights are absolute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
You can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 05:59:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
You can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater.

Unless there's an actual fire.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 20, 2020, 05:59:37 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 20, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 20, 2020, 04:26:31 PM
But that means bars don't open until this is over.  Restaurants at limited capacity, etc.

Oh, thanks for bringing that up again.  I forgot to comment earlier, when I was reading through five pages of new posts since I was last on...

Restaurant bars (such as, say, Chili's), in my opinion, are different beasts to traditional bars.  Part of the point of going to a bar is to be close to other people.  Restaurant bars and hotel bars, though, don't seem to have that same sort of vibe.  So that puts me on the fence about opening bars or not.

I guess in most areas of the country, Chili's (and the many other restaurants like it) usually are for family dining.  Some people may prefer to sit at the bar, but it rarely gets too crowded.  However, if the restaurant has the only bar in the area, or it's located in a business park or hotel area catering to those staying on business, those restaurants probably have a much larger bar-feel to it with more people standing around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 20, 2020, 06:09:46 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 05:59:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
You can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater.

Unless there's an actual fire.

Are there any crowded theaters these days?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 20, 2020, 08:47:14 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 20, 2020, 06:09:46 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 05:59:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
You can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater.

Unless there's an actual fire.

Are there any crowded theaters these days?

Yell in a theater and appeal the conviction.  Let the Supreme Court decide what constitutes crowded.  This is a legal question that's long overdue for an answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 20, 2020, 09:05:10 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
You can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater.

A better comparison is that fire marshals have the authority to limit the legal occupancy of public assembly spaces. If the fire marshal says that having more than 120 people in a restaurant is unsafe because in the event of a fire they won't all be able to evacuate fast enough, you can't use "but my first amendment rights" as defense for having 150 people in there. It's illegal and the fire marshal absolutely can show up and order people to leave.

It's the same basic idea that having more than 10 people in a dwelling unit is unsafe because in the event one of them has covid this can result in them spreading it to too many other people. The difference is that the risk being mitigated is highly variable from time to time and place to place, and therefore so are the limits.

That said, it does seem that even in states where governors have moved to tighten things back down, no one is really going after gatherings in private homes since they've realized this is both difficult to enforce and generally unpopular over how intrusive it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 21, 2020, 12:06:08 AM
Couple other news roundup items.

Item 1: NY Governor Cuomo flies to Savannah to hold a press conference (https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2020/07/20/ny-gov-andrew-cuomo-flies-georgia-talk-coronavirus-response/5470915002/). He won't be quarantining upon his return to NY. While technically he isn't required to, this still is not really going over well from a PR perspective.

Item 2: restaurants in Manhattan are bleeding money (https://www.thecity.nyc/2020/7/19/21330266/new-york-restaurants-closing-ppp-loans-food?utm_content=buffere7047&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=buffer) and a lot of them will be out of business by the end of the year if they aren't bailed out. They're all allowed to be open, that's not their problem - their problem is that they're located in areas where not very many people actually live, so they don't really have local customers to support them. They're used to subsisting on office workers going there for lunch, groups of friends stopping in for dinner before going to see a show or a concert, tourists stopping in for a meal on their tour of the city, etc... all of these demographics are still absent from the city and will not be coming back for quite a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 12:35:34 AM
Quote from: wxfree on July 20, 2020, 08:47:14 PM
Quote from: GaryV on July 20, 2020, 06:09:46 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 05:59:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
You can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater.

Unless there's an actual fire.

Are there any crowded theaters these days?

Yell in a theater and appeal the conviction.  Let the Supreme Court decide what constitutes crowded.  This is a legal question that's long overdue for an answer.
I think yelling it would put people in danger so that would apply to large gatherings too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 05:11:10 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 20, 2020, 03:37:10 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 20, 2020, 01:51:47 PM
Quote from: Brandon on July 20, 2020, 01:43:21 PM
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it.  :ded:

Well...it does, in a manner of speaking. Bars have been serving as superspreaders nationwide. Mostly because drunk people aren't inclined to follow social distancing or wear a mask.

But why does it matter whether or not the bar serves food? That should be completely irrelevant from an epidemiological perspective.

Because that is how you have to word it to keep from shutting down something like Applebee's.

In before someone posts "Why would it be a bad thing to shut down Applebee's?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 21, 2020, 05:29:59 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 20, 2020, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"
You can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater.

There is a difference between "inciting violence to cause a stampede that is a clear and present danger" and "don't congregate with fellow humans because you MAY transmit a disease (even if you had it months ago and really can't) that has a .5% fatality rate".

It's pretty offensive to congregates to think they're the same, but I presume those good Metrowest schools teach you religion is superfluous these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 21, 2020, 05:34:52 AM
For those of you saying that the virus has a 0.5% fatality rate or less: Many people who recover don't fully recover, and there is something wrong with them afterwards that will never heal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 06:05:19 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 05:34:52 AM
For those of you saying that the virus has a 0.5% fatality rate or less: Many people who recover don't fully recover, and there is something wrong with them afterwards that will never heal.
"never" is a big word given that there are no patients who are more than 7 months into recovery. SARS had some pretty nasty post-effects though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 21, 2020, 07:03:46 AM
Quote from: wxfree on July 20, 2020, 08:47:14 PM
Yell in a theater and appeal the conviction.  Let the Supreme Court decide what constitutes crowded.  This is a legal question that's long overdue for an answer.

Sure, Mr. Money Bags.  First, yell it, get yourself arrested. Get convicted of a crime. Possibly go to jail. Then, lawyer up and let the municipal court, county court, state court, state appeals court, and state supreme court rule against you first, then ask to have it heard in the federal Supreme Court, which may or may not elect to hear your argument that you have a constitutional right to yell fire in a movie theatre because 'crowded' is a vague term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 08:50:26 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 05:34:52 AM
For those of you saying that the virus has a 0.5% fatality rate or less: Many people who recover don't fully recover, and there is something wrong with them afterwards that will never heal.


It is a way for people to continue to minimize this.  These people should be ignored because they don't have the capacity for more than the simplest of thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 09:17:57 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 08:50:26 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 05:34:52 AM
For those of you saying that the virus has a 0.5% fatality rate or less: Many people who recover don't fully recover, and there is something wrong with them afterwards that will never heal.


It is a way for people to continue to minimize this.  These people should be ignored because they don't have the capacity for more than the simplest of thought.
OK, Mr. Braniak, without googling it - your comments on D614G?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:19:17 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 09:17:57 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 08:50:26 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 05:34:52 AM
For those of you saying that the virus has a 0.5% fatality rate or less: Many people who recover don't fully recover, and there is something wrong with them afterwards that will never heal.


It is a way for people to continue to minimize this.  These people should be ignored because they don't have the capacity for more than the simplest of thought.
OK, Mr. Braniak, without googling it - your comments on D614G?

It's not relevant to my point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 05:34:52 AM
For those of you saying that the virus has a 0.5% fatality rate or less: Many people who recover don't fully recover, and there is something wrong with them afterwards that will never heal.

Asthmatic people who contract influenza can develop bronchitis or pneumonia that linger after the flu is gone, but that doesn't mean the fatality rate of influenza is somehow not a valuable metric.

Resultant health problems from COVID are indeed a concern that need to be considered, but that doesn't mean the fatality rate is higher than it actually is, nor that people should stop citing it.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 08:50:26 AM
It is a way for people to continue to minimize this.  These people should be ignored because they don't have the capacity for more than the simplest of thought.

Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:55:40 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 20, 2020, 05:09:07 PM

Quote from: cabiness42 on July 20, 2020, 03:01:14 PM
...limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period...

How is that compatible with "abridging...the right of the people peaceably to assemble?"

It would be fairly easy to word such a restriction so as to permit larger gatherings, while maintaining that each 10-or-fewer cluster be separated from the others by some minimum distance.  That is, a gathering of 100 people could be required to divide into ten groups of ten people each.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.


Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.


Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 11:45:52 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.


Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

Because it is the correct one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.

Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

The notion that "science" has only one conclusion is ridiculous.  Scientists disagree about things.  Statistics get manipulated based on politics and personal bias from all sides.  Claiming to follow "the science" is a meaningless claim.  There is no such thing as "the science".  Rather, science is a field of study in which individual scientists disagree and common understanding constantly shifts.

tradephoric is looking at data and interpreting it.  Other people disagree with him and use other data or interpret the given data differently.  But he isn't "ignoring science" any more than anybody else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 21, 2020, 12:12:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.

Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

The notion that "science" has only one conclusion is ridiculous.  Scientists disagree about things.  Statistics get manipulated based on politics and personal bias from all sides.  Claiming to follow "the science" is a meaningless claim.  There is no such thing as "the science".  Rather, science is a field of study in which individual scientists disagree and common understanding constantly shifts.

tradephoric is looking at data and interpreting it.  Other people disagree with him and use other data or interpret the given data differently.  But he isn't "ignoring science" any more than anybody else.

When you are interpreting data in such a bizarre way so as to fit a specific political point, that's pretty much ignoring science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 21, 2020, 12:15:56 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 21, 2020, 12:12:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
The notion that "science" has only one conclusion is ridiculous.  Scientists disagree about things.  Statistics get manipulated based on politics and personal bias from all sides.  Claiming to follow "the science" is a meaningless claim.  There is no such thing as "the science".  Rather, science is a field of study in which individual scientists disagree and common understanding constantly shifts.

tradephoric is looking at data and interpreting it.  Other people disagree with him and use other data or interpret the given data differently.  But he isn't "ignoring science" any more than anybody else.

When you are interpreting data in such a bizarre way so as to fit a specific political point, that's pretty much ignoring science.

It's not bizarre. He's making one major error, which is assuming that twice as many tests means twice as many positive cases. Other things he's saying, such as getting a wave in April vs. July, are up for debate. (Getting it later is better because we know some partial treatment, but on the other hand, getting it later is more preventable because we know more about the virus.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 21, 2020, 12:17:50 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 12:15:56 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 21, 2020, 12:12:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
The notion that "science" has only one conclusion is ridiculous.  Scientists disagree about things.  Statistics get manipulated based on politics and personal bias from all sides.  Claiming to follow "the science" is a meaningless claim.  There is no such thing as "the science".  Rather, science is a field of study in which individual scientists disagree and common understanding constantly shifts.

tradephoric is looking at data and interpreting it.  Other people disagree with him and use other data or interpret the given data differently.  But he isn't "ignoring science" any more than anybody else.

When you are interpreting data in such a bizarre way so as to fit a specific political point, that's pretty much ignoring science.

It's not bizarre. He's making one major error, which is assuming that twice as many tests means twice as many positive cases. Other things he's saying, such as getting a wave in April vs. July, are up for debate. (Getting it later is better because we know some partial treatment, but on the other hand, getting it later is more preventable because we know more about the virus.)

There has been ample evidence that that assumption is false, but he's sticking to it. That's moved into the territory of ignoring science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 12:29:50 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on July 21, 2020, 12:12:49 PM
When you are interpreting data in such a bizarre way so as to fit a specific political point, that's pretty much ignoring science.

I haven't seen tradephoric tie anything he's said to "a specific political point".  Did I miss something?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 12:57:57 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 11:45:52 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.


Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

Because it is the correct one.
How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:02:31 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM

Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.

Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

The notion that "science" has only one conclusion is ridiculous.  Scientists disagree about things.  Statistics get manipulated based on politics and personal bias from all sides.  Claiming to follow "the science" is a meaningless claim.  There is no such thing as "the science".  Rather, science is a field of study in which individual scientists disagree and common understanding constantly shifts.

tradephoric is looking at data and interpreting it.  Other people disagree with him and use other data or interpret the given data differently.  But he isn't "ignoring science" any more than anybody else.


Yes.  He is interpreting it differently.  Wrongly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 12:57:57 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 11:45:52 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.


Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

Because it is the correct one.
How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 21, 2020, 01:04:12 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 08:50:26 AM
[attacks on people's intelligence]

Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 11:16:32 AM
[attacks on people's intelligence]

Let's just ignore both of them and move on. Trying to discuss anything here with either of them is pointless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

(https://i.imgur.com/jsHKmYa.png)



Uh. No.  That's simply not the case.  If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

How could you anecdotally even say that?  It makes so sense.

It's like you know the names of statistics, but have no idea what they mean.

I don't understand the logic that "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it [the virus] is more widespread".   Increasing daily positive tests since April is largely an indication of how much more testing is being done.  My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).  I don't disagree that we have seen a recent spike in infections upon states reopening (evidenced by the recent increase in test positivity rate and hospitalizations) but this Summer spike isn't as bad as the spike we saw in the Spring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 01:43:28 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:19:17 AM

Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 09:17:57 AM
OK, Mr. Braniak, without googling it - your comments on D614G?

It's not relevant to my point.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:03:19 PM

Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 12:57:57 PM
How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.

I gotta admit:  I'm not sure how D614G is pertinent to your point either.  Not sure what kalvado was getting at.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 21, 2020, 01:48:24 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

(https://i.imgur.com/jsHKmYa.png)



Uh. No.  That's simply not the case.  If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

How could you anecdotally even say that?  It makes so sense.

It's like you know the names of statistics, but have no idea what they mean.

I don't understand the logic that "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it [the virus] is more widespread".   Increasing daily positive tests since April is largely an indication of how much more testing is being done.  My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).  I don't disagree that we have seen a recent spike in infections upon states reopening (evidenced by the recent increase in test positivity rate and hospitalizations) but this Summer spike isn't as bad as the spike we saw in the Spring.

Nobody is saying that the virus is more widespread than it was at its April peak (though it's getting very close). We are saying that the virus is more widespread, by a lot, than it was when lockdowns were ended in May, and the hospitalization rates support that.

You insist on ignoring that reality and circling back around to testing rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 21, 2020, 01:49:55 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 01:43:28 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 12:57:57 PM
How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....
Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.

I gotta admit:  I'm not sure how D614G is pertinent to your point either.  Not sure what kalvado was getting at.

If he knows so much about the virus, and has the "only" correct opinion, it should be easy for him to tell us all about D614G.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 01:50:36 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 12:57:57 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 11:45:52 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.


Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

Because it is the correct one.
How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.
So, still - what makes you feel you're entitled for an opinion?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 01:53:33 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:54:48 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 15, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 15, 2020, 04:45:14 PM
The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

(https://i.imgur.com/jsHKmYa.png)





Uh. No.  That's simply not the case.  If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

How could you anecdotally even say that?  It makes so sense.

It's like you know the names of statistics, but have no idea what they mean.

I don't understand the logic that "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it [the virus] is more widespread".   Increasing daily positive tests since April is largely an indication of how much more testing is being done.  My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).  I don't disagree that we have seen a recent spike in infections upon states reopening (evidenced by the recent increase in test positivity rate and hospitalizations) but this Summer spike isn't as bad as the spike we saw in the Spring.



So let's use the graph you have there.  So around April 1, 150,000 or so people were tested with a 25% positivity rate.  37,500.  Now you have 750,000 tests at an 8% positivity.  56,000

On top of that, those figures have to be added to people who tested positive for the disease and are still not recovered.  If you do that, there are hundreds of thousands of more cases now.  It is simply much more widespread than it was in April.  And it's not even close.  And those are just the people who have been tested!

You simply do not understand how to interpret data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:55:12 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 01:50:36 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 12:57:57 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 11:45:52 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 11:15:15 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 10:57:02 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 10:52:36 AM
Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.


Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

Because it is the correct one.
How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.
So, still - what makes you feel you're entitled for an opinion?



What?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 02:07:25 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:54:48 PM
So let's use the graph you have there.  So around April 1, 150,000 or so people were tested with a 25% positivity rate.  37,500.  Now you have 750,000 tests at an 8% positivity.  56,000

On top of that, those figures have to be added to people who tested positive for the disease and are still not recovered.  If you do that, there are hundreds of thousands of more cases now.  It is simply much more widespread than it was in April.  And it's not even close.  And those are just the people who have been tested!

You simply do not understand how to interpret data.

I don't think counting not-yet-recovered persons is useful in determining how widespread something is.  Spread is intuitively defined has how many new infections are taking place.

Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:55:12 PM
What?

I think he's asking why you consider yourself entitled to an opinion but dismiss others' opinions as rubbish.  He used a question about D614G to illustrate that maybe you're not as "expert" and "scientific" as you think you are.  But, as I said earlier, my own opinion is that you were correct in saying D614G is irrelevant to the point you had been making (which was about some recovered patients suffering long-term issues, for those just tuning in)–so I'm not sure why he threw that particular stick in the wheel.  Maybe he took your deflection as ignorance of the topic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 02:47:17 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 21, 2020, 01:54:48 PM
So let's use the graph you have there.  So around April 1, 150,000 or so people were tested with a 25% positivity rate.  37,500.  Now you have 750,000 tests at an 8% positivity.  56,000

Your logic is "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that the virus is more widespread".  Wouldn't that also mean if daily positive tests are decreasing that the virus is less widespread?  Well then let's just stop testing for the virus!  Zero testing = zero positive cases = zero spread = pandemic over.  Can you see how silly your logic is?


Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 03:01:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 01:53:33 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).

I was just looking at the nationwide overview of hospitalizations from the COVID tracking project. 

https://covidtracking.com/data

No doubt there are states that are seeing big spikes in hospitalizations now, but combined they still don't match the hospitalizations we were seeing in the Northeast in April.  It really goes to show how hard the Northeast was hit in the spring, specifically New York.  At its peak New York was reporting 1,000 deaths a day.  Thank God no other state has gotten anywhere close to those daily death numbers. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 03:01:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 01:53:33 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).

I was just looking at the nationwide overview of hospitalizations from the COVID tracking project. 

https://covidtracking.com/data

No doubt there are states that are seeing big spikes in hospitalizations now, but combined they still don't match the hospitalizations we were seeing in the Northeast in April.  It really goes to show how hard the Northeast was hit in the spring, specifically New York.  At its peak New York was reporting 1,000 deaths a day.  Thank God no other state has gotten anywhere close to those daily death numbers.
States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 21, 2020, 03:08:33 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 03:01:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 01:53:33 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).

I was just looking at the nationwide overview of hospitalizations from the COVID tracking project. 

https://covidtracking.com/data

No doubt there are states that are seeing big spikes in hospitalizations now, but combined they still don't match the hospitalizations we were seeing in the Northeast in April.  It really goes to show how hard the Northeast was hit in the spring, specifically New York.  At its peak New York was reporting 1,000 deaths a day.  Thank God no other state has gotten anywhere close to those daily death numbers.

Comparing states doesn't quite work here. The distribution of the virus in April was much more concentrated in one place than it is now.

No single place is as bad as New York City was in April, but several entire states (LA, MS, AL, FL, SC) are bad, which is a larger population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 03:26:30 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.

I think the only state that has a remote chance of catching NY in total deaths is California.  According to IHME COVID-19 Projections the high end projection for deaths in California is 34,437 by November 1st (in comparison New York has so far reported 32,598 deaths).  It's almost certain that California will overtake New York in total cases though (they already almost have). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 03:27:41 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 03:26:30 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.

I think the only state that has a remote chance of catching NY in total deaths is California.  According to IHME COVID-19 Projections the high end projection for deaths in California is 34,437 by November 1st (in comparison New York has so far reported 32,598 deaths).  It's almost certain that California will overtake New York in total cases though (they already almost have).
New York also has more people than almost all the other states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 04:00:02 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 03:27:41 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 21, 2020, 03:26:30 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.

I think the only state that has a remote chance of catching NY in total deaths is California.  According to IHME COVID-19 Projections the high end projection for deaths in California is 34,437 by November 1st (in comparison New York has so far reported 32,598 deaths).  It's almost certain that California will overtake New York in total cases though (they already almost have).
New York also has more people than almost all the other states.
NY is #4 in population right now, if I remember correctly. 3 more populous states are CA, TX and FL - all the current hot spots. So size will not be deciding factor in case count.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:35:45 PM
Poof go the posts.

This thread is not for insulting other posters, nor is it for talking about how great or shitty your favorite/least favorite elected official is.

I'm starting to think letting a thread on this topic continue was a mistake. Please prove me wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 21, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:45:48 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

I feel so, so sorry for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 04:46:05 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

Same here.

I, for one, will be very disappointed if we all can't keep it civil enough to keep the thread alive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 04:50:03 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

As did I but that was mostly early in the pandemic.  As of late what gets posted here is more opinions more than actual news, but that's kind of how the conversation on COVID everywhere has gone.  As of late I tend to talk about the topic more in private chat groups in the road community.  Those conversations are generally more about actual news pertaining to things like changing local restrictions.  I was kind of surprised to learn how much more restrictive places like NY and New England are compared to what I deal with now. 

To that end, I don't see a reason why this thread can't remain civil.  I think that I missed out on some of what was posted after I left the house, but compared to other topics similar in nature it has been a tame going until recently.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 21, 2020, 04:52:51 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID laughs from this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:54:25 PM
If I had the money, I'd buy everyone in here a subscription to an actual news source.

Please don't make this forum be your source for important news like this. It is very bad at that and half of the stuff posted here is wrong. Learn what's going on from somewhere that has actual standards for what's posted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 05:01:57 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:54:25 PM
If I had the money, I'd buy everyone in here a subscription to an actual news source.

I really don't think at this point that reading "normal" news sources as a daily or regular thing is even all that healthy habit anymore.  As a general rule I've found that almost all mainstream media in general to be increasingly highly slanted, misleading, or selectively edited.  That's not even a statement about COVID, it's almost like you have to read between the lines on almost every major news story reported these days to get a somewhat accurate picture.  I know stuff like that has always been a thing but it just feels like everyone reports on stories in a hugely sensationalized way regardless of the angle.  It doesn't help that things like the 24 hour TV news cycle and social media really drive the push to get some sort of new content out there.  As someone who works in the Safety world it was really frustrating especially when it was starting to cause panics. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 05:06:59 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:54:25 PM
If I had the money, I'd buy everyone in here a subscription to an actual news source.

Please don't make this forum be your source for important news like this. It is very bad at that and half of the stuff posted here is wrong. Learn what's going on from somewhere that has actual standards for what's posted.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 05:01:57 PM
As a general rule I've found that almost all mainstream media in general to be increasingly highly slanted, misleading, or selectively edited.  That's not even a statement about COVID ...

Yeah, exactly.  No matter where you get your news, somebody edited the stories.

Keeping up with actual data and research is a lot more labor-intensive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 05:15:53 PM
If a newspaper reporter gets things wrong enough, they could, at least, theoretically lose their job.

I can just post on here that a newly discovered, alarming side effect of COVID-19 is sudden onset Applebee's cravings and suffer zero consequences for making stuff up.

I have five or six news sources, both national and local, that I consult to stay informed. I also participate on a few forums to find stories that my regular news sources missed. But even that is too much for most people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 05:21:11 PM
I'm kind of craving Applebee's now...

More to your point, usually once a week I'll scan the news for California and Fresno.  Generally I read maybe a dozen stories, usually they are pertain to the current status of restrictions locally.  I want to say that there is at least half a dozen news agencies that seem to be somewhat reliable and generally report more or less matter of fact.  The trouble is that I have to dig through a lot of filth click bait headlines just to get to information about what actually is going on locally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 05:40:41 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 05:06:59 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:54:25 PM
If I had the money, I'd buy everyone in here a subscription to an actual news source.

Please don't make this forum be your source for important news like this. It is very bad at that and half of the stuff posted here is wrong. Learn what's going on from somewhere that has actual standards for what's posted.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 05:01:57 PM
As a general rule I've found that almost all mainstream media in general to be increasingly highly slanted, misleading, or selectively edited.  That's not even a statement about COVID ...

Yeah, exactly.  No matter where you get your news, somebody edited the stories.

Keeping up with actual data and research is a lot more labor-intensive.
Mainstream media is slanted and bias, but I trust it a lot more than a bunch of randos on the internet. I also try to get my news from reliable sources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 21, 2020, 05:44:56 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 05:40:41 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 21, 2020, 05:06:59 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:54:25 PM
If I had the money, I'd buy everyone in here a subscription to an actual news source.

Please don't make this forum be your source for important news like this. It is very bad at that and half of the stuff posted here is wrong. Learn what's going on from somewhere that has actual standards for what's posted.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 21, 2020, 05:01:57 PM
As a general rule I've found that almost all mainstream media in general to be increasingly highly slanted, misleading, or selectively edited.  That's not even a statement about COVID ...

Yeah, exactly.  No matter where you get your news, somebody edited the stories.

Keeping up with actual data and research is a lot more labor-intensive.
Mainstream media is slanted and bias, but I trust it a lot more than a bunch of randos on the internet. I also try to get my news from reliable sources.

Paywalled sources are usually reliable. The problem is... they're paywalled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 21, 2020, 06:00:03 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 21, 2020, 05:44:56 PM
Paywalled sources are usually reliable. The problem is... they're paywalled.

More and more newspaper sites are going the paywall route, so that's certainly no guarantee.

More and more newspaper sites are also getting rid of the comment sections, so even the stuff that is 100% wrong is easier to be missed. And I'm not talking about stories that are opinionated.  I'm talking "On June 31..." stuff, where the basis of fact simply doesn't or can't exist.  nj.com a site I read regularly, was part of a company that took out the comment section, then said how badly people need to "donate" to their site, then started limiting articles to those that pay for a subscription, then write articles how their own reporters are the frontline in giving us the news we need.  Guess if all of this were true, they wouldn't need to beg.

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 06:01:39 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 21, 2020, 05:40:41 PM
Mainstream media is slanted and bias, but I trust it a lot more than a bunch of randos on the internet. I also try to get my news from reliable sources.

Most of the sources I read are generally not overtly slanted in the articles themselves. However, bias often appears in what is not reported. Thus it's good to read multiple sources to fill in the gaps that other sources leave.

Just to use a bland example from local media, since that will hopefully prevent anyone from getting bent out of shape–the Oklahoman hardly ever covers any local business leaders negatively, even when they're actively doing illegal things like tax evasion. Most business coverage is just a summary of press releases the businesses themselves put out, and is all things like "X Co. is planning to build a new warehouse", "Y Energy seeks to add 1.4 billion new jobs over the next week", etc. If you want to get the other side of the coin and read things like "X Co. new warehouse cancelled", "Teemco headquarters shut down by Tax Commission for tax evasion", or "Hobby Lobby warehouse employees work in 100° heat with no air conditioning",  you have to read the Oklahoma Gazette.

Of course, this is because all the big businesses advertise in the Oklahoman and the small ones advertise in the Gazette.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 21, 2020, 06:24:06 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 04:35:45 PM
Poof go the posts.


Thank you.  It was getting tiresome.

Quote from: Scott5114 on July 21, 2020, 05:15:53 PM
I can just post on here that a newly discovered, alarming side effect of COVID-19 is sudden onset Applebee's cravings and suffer zero consequences for making stuff up.

I heard it was Olive Garden ....    :poke:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 21, 2020, 06:49:32 PM
I've noticed this: Every time a state reaches either 15,000 known cases per million or 500 deaths per million, the number of new cases drops off precipitously. Louisiana seems to be the only exception, but they do so many tests there that it probably is dropping off a lot there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 21, 2020, 07:58:48 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 21, 2020, 06:49:32 PM
I've noticed this: Every time a state reaches either 15,000 known cases per million or 500 deaths per million, the number of new cases drops off precipitously. Louisiana seems to be the only exception, but they do so many tests there that it probably is dropping off a lot there.

Well, we should be able to test that hypothesis soon with Georgia, then. We're at about 14,000 known cases per million as of today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: keithvh on July 21, 2020, 08:30:40 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 21, 2020, 06:49:32 PM
I've noticed this: Every time a state reaches either 15,000 known cases per million or 500 deaths per million, the number of new cases drops off precipitously. Louisiana seems to be the only exception, but they do so many tests there that it probably is dropping off a lot there.

I agree, it's not universal but that trend is there.  There is a watch-out, of course, as you noted with LA.  Testing rates have not been consistent across either states or time, and "known cases per million" depends on that.

Concurrent with what you've noticed: Rt tends to be significantly negatively correlated with "known cases per million."  Again, a non-universal statement but the trend is there.

But both of these trends lend credibility to a opinion that we are beginning to benefit from significant levels of immunity within the population as a whole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 21, 2020, 08:46:37 PM
Quote from: keithvh on July 21, 2020, 08:30:40 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 21, 2020, 06:49:32 PM
I've noticed this: Every time a state reaches either 15,000 known cases per million or 500 deaths per million, the number of new cases drops off precipitously. Louisiana seems to be the only exception, but they do so many tests there that it probably is dropping off a lot there.

I agree, it's not universal but that trend is there.  There is a watch-out, of course, as you noted with LA.  Testing rates have not been consistent across either states or time, and "known cases per million" depends on that.

Concurrent with what you've noticed: Rt tends to be significantly negatively correlated with "known cases per million."  Again, a non-universal statement but the trend is there.

But both of these trends lend credibility to a opinion that we are beginning to benefit from significant levels of immunity within the population as a whole.
Another explanation is that people start to behave when things hit close to home. Seeing the light at the end of the tunnel is certainly a more attractive idea, but things may still turn ugly if we got it wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 21, 2020, 10:18:39 PM
I think new cases will start to go down slightly this week for a couple of reasons:
1. Several states have implemented renewed restrictions (including mask requirements), and some of those have been in place for more than two weeks now
2. The Fourth of July is more than 14 days in the past

It's hard to believe that New York City alone (not including any suburbs) had over 5,000 COVID deaths in just one week in early April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 22, 2020, 06:41:00 AM
You guys are really trying to get this thread locked, aren't you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 22, 2020, 07:50:31 AM
I got mad when your guys forced to lock one of my favorite threads (the "Threads you'll never see on aaroads.com" one), and now I don't know where to post some really crazy ideas I've had since then, including some corona-related. That said, I really don't care what is happening with corona outside Spain, as my area is again somewhat ****ed up and I'm focusing on that. Although it appears it's starting to get down again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 09:45:55 AM
Aw, geez...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on July 22, 2020, 10:04:23 AM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on July 22, 2020, 09:10:57 AM
If I am silenced, let me be silenced as a Jew speaking out against a Jew's worst nightmare: another instance of civilian mass death caused by a fascist propaganda machine defending state recklessness.

Sometimes a road forum is just a road forum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 10:13:09 AM
I'm not taking anything on this thread too seriously, and certainly not using it as a legitimate news source. It's still been interesting, though, and it would be disheartening if people go and get it locked.

But then, it's already five times longer than the next-longest (open) off-topic thread, so perhaps I've set my expectations too high and should just be glad it's lasted this long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Takumi on July 22, 2020, 10:41:01 AM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on July 22, 2020, 07:50:31 AM
I got mad when your guys forced to lock one of my favorite threads (the "Threads you'll never see on aaroads.com" one)
You did that to yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: vdeane on July 22, 2020, 01:24:29 PM
This thread was interesting to see how the virus is affecting different areas, but I feel like as of late it's devolved into the same arguments over and over again, like the DST thread, but less interesting and much more time consuming (there were days a third to half of the time it takes me to check the forum was just this one thread).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 01:31:12 PM
Quote from: vdeane on July 22, 2020, 01:24:29 PM
This thread was interesting to see how the virus is affecting different areas, but I feel like as of late it's devolved into the same arguments over and over again, like the DST thread, but less interesting and much more time consuming (there were days a third to half of the time it takes me to check the forum was just this one thread).

This thread has gone through phases.  Until very recently, it had been quite a while since people had gotten uncharitable.  We possess the ability to keep our vitriol in check.  Our willingness to do so ebbs and flows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 01:49:45 PM
Quote from: vdeane on July 22, 2020, 01:24:29 PM
This thread was interesting to see how the virus is affecting different areas, but I feel like as of late it's devolved into the same arguments over and over again, like the DST thread, but less interesting and much more time consuming (there were days a third to half of the time it takes me to check the forum was just this one thread).
The virus has become politicized.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 22, 2020, 01:54:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 01:49:45 PM
Quote from: vdeane on July 22, 2020, 01:24:29 PM
This thread was interesting to see how the virus is affecting different areas, but I feel like as of late it's devolved into the same arguments over and over again, like the DST thread, but less interesting and much more time consuming (there were days a third to half of the time it takes me to check the forum was just this one thread).
The virus has become politicized.

I more or less share the same view.  Most conversations regarding COVID aren't even about the merits of safety.  Politics doesn't interest me in any capacity, especially when it comes to COVID.  While it hasn't been all much of a thing in this thread it is brutal to read a news feed on any social media platform.  I've never understood why so many people waste so much energy on arguing political views. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Takumi on July 22, 2020, 01:58:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 22, 2020, 01:54:21 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 01:49:45 PM
Quote from: vdeane on July 22, 2020, 01:24:29 PM
This thread was interesting to see how the virus is affecting different areas, but I feel like as of late it's devolved into the same arguments over and over again, like the DST thread, but less interesting and much more time consuming (there were days a third to half of the time it takes me to check the forum was just this one thread).
The virus has become politicized.

I more or less share the same view.  Most conversations regarding COVID aren't even about the merits of safety.  Politics doesn't interest me in any capacity, especially when it comes to COVID.  While it hasn't been all much of a thing in this thread it is brutal to read a news feed on any social media platform.  I've never understood why so many people waste so much energy on arguing political views. 
Pretty much my sentiment as well. I have my own opinions on the politicization of the virus, but I also don't expect my views to sway anyone else's, nor vice versa, so I don't express them in many places. But you know, you have those people on both polar extremes who think if they insult their opposition enough, maybe that'll finally convince them. Nah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on July 22, 2020, 02:30:08 PM
Honest to God, I don't know how anyone has the time to keep up with this thread. It's just too much.

If things really get out of hand, don't lock: simply allow the thread to become an RSS feed. Users can share links to news, and snippets of that story, but cannot give personal opinions about the stories.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 02:42:28 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 22, 2020, 02:30:08 PM
Honest to God, I don't know how anyone has the time to keep up with this thread. It's just too much.

If things really get out of hand, don't lock: simply allow the thread to become an RSS feed. Users can share links to news, and snippets of that story, but cannot give personal opinions about the stories.
There would be no opinion sharing in that case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Takumi on July 22, 2020, 02:45:32 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 22, 2020, 02:30:08 PM
Honest to God, I don't know how anyone has the time to keep up with this thread. It's just too much.

If things really get out of hand, don't lock: simply allow the thread to become an RSS feed. Users can share links to news, and snippets of that story, but cannot give personal opinions about the stories.
Is that possible on SMF?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:52:34 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 01:49:45 PM
The virus has become politicized.

Has become?

When was it not?

Quote from: vdeane on February 05, 2020, 08:45:31 PM
-The Communist Party's first response to reports of the virus was not to take preventative measures but to pretend nothing was happening and punish anyone who said otherwise to anyone (even in private communications).  That allowed the virus to spread far, far more than it otherwise should have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:55:28 PM
I've been thinking about this...

A while ago, the state of Kansas decided that anyone arriving from Arkansas had to home-quarantine because the virus was too widespread there.  Then later, when it became more widespread in Kansas than in Arkansas, the home-quarantine order was rescinded.

Was that the right move to make?  Or should Arkansas have stayed on Kansas' naughty list?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on July 22, 2020, 03:09:51 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:55:28 PM
Was that the right move to make?  Or should Arkansas have stayed on Kansas' naughty list?

My impression is the naughty lists are haphazard, difficult to keep standardized, and fluctuate too much to work effectively. For example, I was not welcome in NY last week, but am welcome this week, and will likely be unwelcome again next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on July 22, 2020, 03:13:06 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 02:42:28 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 22, 2020, 02:30:08 PM
Honest to God, I don't know how anyone has the time to keep up with this thread. It's just too much.

If things really get out of hand, don't lock: simply allow the thread to become an RSS feed. Users can share links to news, and snippets of that story, but cannot give personal opinions about the stories.
There would be no opinion sharing in that case.

That's the point.

Quote from: Takumi on July 22, 2020, 02:45:32 PM
Is that possible on SMF?

It would be up to the individual user to format each post appropriately. It would be "like" an RSS feed, more than an actual one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on July 22, 2020, 03:18:18 PM
Minnesota joined mandatory masks today. Perhaps to a fault, our governor has given people ample chances to behave like responsible adults before making these kinds of decisions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 03:20:15 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on July 22, 2020, 03:09:51 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:55:28 PM
Was that the right move to make?  Or should Arkansas have stayed on Kansas' naughty list?

My impression is the naughty lists are haphazard, difficult to keep standardized, and fluctuate too much to work effectively. For example, I was not welcome in NY last week, but am welcome this week, and will likely be unwelcome again next week.

Kansas numbers surpassing Arkansas numbers was specifically stated to be the reason that Arkansas was taken off Kansas' naughty list.  Part of me thinks that makes sense, but another part of me doesn't.

Imagine if the virus were ten times more widespread in two states than anywhere else.  Would it make sense to remove travel restrictions from one to the other, just because they flip-flopped the #1 and #2 spots?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: stormwatch7721 on July 22, 2020, 03:20:49 PM
Ohio also joins the mask order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 22, 2020, 03:24:03 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:55:28 PMA while ago, the state of Kansas decided that anyone arriving from Arkansas had to home-quarantine because the virus was too widespread there.  Then later, when it became more widespread in Kansas than in Arkansas, the home-quarantine order was rescinded.

Was that the right move to make?  Or should Arkansas have stayed on Kansas' naughty list?

Speaking in broad terms, the rationale for these quarantine requirements is to prevent people from a badly affected state seeding new outbreaks in another that is less hard-hit.  It might be that Kansas should now be on Arkansas' naughty list.

This said, I wonder to what extent the science supports the specific criteria.  For example, Kansas blacklists (https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/175/Travel-Exposure-Related-Isolation-Quaran) another state once its fourteen-day total of new cases per 100,000 reaches three times Kansas' own.  Why that ratio and not, say, one and a half, two, or even four?

Moreover, the blacklist appears to be reviewed at two-week intervals and is entirely backward-looking (only cases already found are considered).  Wouldn't it yield a significantly higher degree of protection if it were reviewed daily and states that are not already on the list, but where it is clear cases are in an exponential growth pattern, were evaluated for addition to the list on the basis of their projected two-week case count up to two weeks later?  (Apropos of a parallel thread, this looks like an interesting use case for Excel conditionals and pivot tables.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 22, 2020, 03:25:18 PM
Quote from: stormwatch7721 on July 22, 2020, 03:20:49 PM
Ohio also joins the mask order.

They were, IIRC, the first state to have any shutdowns and they're starting a mask order now? Wow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 03:27:14 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:55:28 PM
Was that the right move to make?  Or should Arkansas have stayed on Kansas' naughty list?

I think whether Arkansas is on the naughty list should be 100% based on what's happening in Arkansas, and 0% based on what's happening in Kansas. So no, I guess it doesn't make much sense to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tdindy88 on July 22, 2020, 03:41:15 PM
Add Indiana to the mask list as well. Considering just reading about Minnesota and Ohio I'm guessing the rest of the Great Lakes states are starting to all fall in line again as a region. I guess this now puts Wisconsin on the clock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Big John on July 22, 2020, 03:46:01 PM
Quote from: tdindy88 on July 22, 2020, 03:41:15 PM
Add Indiana to the mask list as well. Considering just reading about Minnesota and Ohio I'm guessing the rest of the Great Lakes states are starting to all fall in line again as a region. I guess this now puts Wisconsin on the clock.
The legislature, not the governor, has this power and they have no intention of doing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 03:51:52 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 03:27:14 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:55:28 PM
Was that the right move to make?  Or should Arkansas have stayed on Kansas' naughty list?

I think whether Arkansas is on the naughty list should be 100% based on what's happening in Arkansas, and 0% based on what's happening in Kansas. So no, I guess it doesn't make much sense to me.

That's what half of me thinks.  But then, the other half of me...

Imagine a graduation party here in Wichita, one that had been postponed until now.  Family traveling to the graduation from within Kansas (where the virus is more widespread) would have no restrictions, while family traveling from Arkansas (where it's less widespread) would be required to self-isolate for two weeks.  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: MikieTimT on July 22, 2020, 04:01:11 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 03:51:52 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 03:27:14 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 02:55:28 PM
Was that the right move to make?  Or should Arkansas have stayed on Kansas' naughty list?

I think whether Arkansas is on the naughty list should be 100% based on what's happening in Arkansas, and 0% based on what's happening in Kansas. So no, I guess it doesn't make much sense to me.

That's what half of me thinks.  But then, the other half of me...

Imagine a graduation party here in Wichita, one that had been postponed until now.  Family traveling to the graduation from within Kansas (where the virus is more widespread) would have no restrictions, while family traveling from Arkansas (where it's less widespread) would be required to self-isolate for two weeks.  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.

We just had the converse of that scenario 3 weeks ago.  Family came down with their daughters from KS to AR for our niece's graduation/prom on our back deck and their kids.  No one experienced anything unusual in the 3 weeks since.  Neighbors didn't even complain about the loud music played outdoors until 11PM!
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 04:22:49 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 03:51:52 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 03:27:14 PM
I think whether Arkansas is on the naughty list should be 100% based on what's happening in Arkansas, and 0% based on what's happening in Kansas. So no, I guess it doesn't make much sense to me.

That's what half of me thinks.  But then, the other half of me...

Imagine a graduation party here in Wichita, one that had been postponed until now.  Family traveling to the graduation from within Kansas (where the virus is more widespread) would have no restrictions, while family traveling from Arkansas (where it's less widespread) would be required to self-isolate for two weeks.  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.

Well, if the virus is still spreading rampantly, the party should probably be postponed again. I agree that it doesn't make sense to require people from places where the virus is less widespread to quarantine.

But then this calls into question the value of having your own naughty list if you're on everyone else's naughty list. What's the point?
Seems to me quarantine restrictions make the most sense for places like NY/NJ/CT where the virus is largely under control. States should be focused on reducing spread within their own population first: encouraging mask wearing and social distancing, scaling back bars and restaurant openings, encourage spending time outdoors, etc. Worry about out-of-state travelers later, once you've got the spread contained.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 04:31:27 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 04:22:49 PM
Well, if the virus is still spreading rampantly, the party should probably be postponed again.

Not necessarily, if everyone is coming from locales with very few cases.

Quote from: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 04:22:49 PM
States should be focused on reducing spread within their own population first: encouraging mask wearing and social distancing, scaling back bars and restaurant openings, encourage spending time outdoors, etc., etc., and worry about out-of-state travelers later, once you've got the spread contained.

Why?  The goal of the governor is presumably to keep the number of new infections low–no matter who it is that infects a resident or where they came from.  Whether an New Yorker or a fellow Kansas infects a Kansan, it's one more case regardless.  Besides which, spread cannot be "contained" without accounting for people coming from outside the state.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 22, 2020, 05:11:30 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 22, 2020, 03:24:03 PM
This said, I wonder to what extent the science supports the specific criteria.  For example, Kansas blacklists (https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/175/Travel-Exposure-Related-Isolation-Quaran) another state once its fourteen-day total of new cases per 100,000 reaches three times Kansas' own.  Why that ratio and not, say, one and a half, two, or even four?
Compartmentalizing the population is one of the long-established measures to limit the spread. Since people are much more dependent on others these days, full isolation is not practical. So there have to be some formal criteria to have enough mobility but maximizing benefits of isolation. 3x, 2x or 5x - any number can be equally questioned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 22, 2020, 05:34:13 PM
Kentucky's governor tried a travel ban. It got struck down in federal court. (https://www.courthousenews.com/federal-judge-rules-kentuckys-covid-19-travel-ban-is-unconstitutional/) I would imagine that this is in effect for the entire Sixth Circuit (Michigan, Ohio, Kntuckky, and Tennessee.) (Note that the ban on in-person church services referenced in the story was also struck down later by another federal court).

So now the governor is trying what he calls a "travel advisory" and asks anyone who travels to a list of states at or near 15 percent positivity rates to self-quarantine for 14 days. From what I've heard, public opinion is against him on this and anyone who goes to Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, or any of the other states is thumbing their noses at him. Now he's been reduced to pleading with people with plans to vacation in one of those places to cancel their travel plans since there's nothing he can compel them to do, having been neutered by a federal court.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 05:37:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 22, 2020, 05:34:13 PM
Kentucky's governor tried a travel ban. It got struck down in federal court. (https://www.courthousenews.com/federal-judge-rules-kentuckys-covid-19-travel-ban-is-unconstitutional/) I would imagine that this is in effect for the entire Sixth Circuit (Michigan, Ohio, Kntuckky, and Tennessee.) (Note that the ban on in-person church services referenced in the story was also struck down later by another federal court).

So now the governor is trying what he calls a "travel advisory" and asks anyone who travels to a list of states at or near 15 percent positivity rates to self-quarantine for 14 days. From what I've heard, public opinion is against him on this and anyone who goes to Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, or any of the other states is thumbing their noses at him. Now he's been reduced to pleading with people with plans to vacation in one of those places to cancel their travel plans since there's nothing he can compel them to do, having been neutered by a federal court.
Kentuckians should listen to him and not travel to hotspots. It's really that simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 22, 2020, 05:40:54 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 05:37:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 22, 2020, 05:34:13 PM
Kentucky's governor tried a travel ban. It got struck down in federal court. (https://www.courthousenews.com/federal-judge-rules-kentuckys-covid-19-travel-ban-is-unconstitutional/) I would imagine that this is in effect for the entire Sixth Circuit (Michigan, Ohio, Kntuckky, and Tennessee.) (Note that the ban on in-person church services referenced in the story was also struck down later by another federal court).

So now the governor is trying what he calls a "travel advisory" and asks anyone who travels to a list of states at or near 15 percent positivity rates to self-quarantine for 14 days. From what I've heard, public opinion is against him on this and anyone who goes to Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, or any of the other states is thumbing their noses at him. Now he's been reduced to pleading with people with plans to vacation in one of those places to cancel their travel plans since there's nothing he can compel them to do, having been neutered by a federal court.
Kentuckians should listen to him and not travel to hotspots. It's really that simple.

Nashville and its metro area is a hotspot (and more than the rest of Tennessee outside the southwest corner). I'm not sure how many live in Kentucky and work in Tennessee, but those people definitely need to be able to travel between the states.

That being said, going to a non-adjacent state that's a hotspot is highly discouraged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: formulanone on July 22, 2020, 06:20:21 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 22, 2020, 05:34:13 PM...in effect for the entire Sixth Circuit (Michigan, Ohio, Kntuckky, and Tennessee.)

...and you've only been warning us about Louisville all these years?   :bigass:
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 06:25:06 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 22, 2020, 05:40:54 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 22, 2020, 05:37:10 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 22, 2020, 05:34:13 PM
Kentucky's governor tried a travel ban. It got struck down in federal court. (https://www.courthousenews.com/federal-judge-rules-kentuckys-covid-19-travel-ban-is-unconstitutional/) I would imagine that this is in effect for the entire Sixth Circuit (Michigan, Ohio, Kntuckky, and Tennessee.) (Note that the ban on in-person church services referenced in the story was also struck down later by another federal court).

So now the governor is trying what he calls a "travel advisory" and asks anyone who travels to a list of states at or near 15 percent positivity rates to self-quarantine for 14 days. From what I've heard, public opinion is against him on this and anyone who goes to Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, or any of the other states is thumbing their noses at him. Now he's been reduced to pleading with people with plans to vacation in one of those places to cancel their travel plans since there's nothing he can compel them to do, having been neutered by a federal court.
Kentuckians should listen to him and not travel to hotspots. It's really that simple.

Nashville and its metro area is a hotspot (and more than the rest of Tennessee outside the southwest corner). I'm not sure how many live in Kentucky and work in Tennessee, but those people definitely need to be able to travel between the states.

That being said, going to a non-adjacent state that's a hotspot is highly discouraged.
Well essential travel is different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 22, 2020, 07:31:49 PM
This virus is causing a lot of harm in a lot of different ways.  To remediate some of that harm, Houston now has a drive-through strip club.  It's nice to know we can find solutions to these problems.

https://www.chron.com/local/article/Would-you-like-a-side-of-glitter-with-that-burger-15423217.php (https://www.chron.com/local/article/Would-you-like-a-side-of-glitter-with-that-burger-15423217.php)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Duke87 on July 22, 2020, 08:28:18 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 22, 2020, 03:24:03 PM
Moreover, the blacklist appears to be reviewed at two-week intervals and is entirely backward-looking (only cases already found are considered).  Wouldn't it yield a significantly higher degree of protection if it were reviewed daily and states that are not already on the list, but where it is clear cases are in an exponential growth pattern, were evaluated for addition to the list on the basis of their projected two-week case count up to two weeks later?  (Apropos of a parallel thread, this looks like an interesting use case for Excel conditionals and pivot tables.)

You know, I have already been thinking about this and how it relates to the way HVAC controls are programmed in order to deliver better end results. What you're suggesting parallels one of them - the concept of PID (Proportional, Integral, Derivative) loops, where how the HVAC system is told to run is determined not just by the current temperature and humidity inside the building, but also by whether they're going up or down and how fast.

Another older and simpler one is the concept of the deadband, designed to prevent rapid cycling by requiring a stricter condition to turn the system off than to turn it on. Delaware went on the NY/NJ/CT naughtly list a couple weeks ago only to come off it last week and then go back on it this week. Minnesota is possibly poised to get caught in a similar pattern. Currently NY will put you on the list if you exceed 70 new cases per 100k people in a week and take you off if you drop below this same number. The naughty list could be made more stable if, say, you waited until states hit 80 cases/100k before putting them on but then also required they drop below 60 cases/100k before taking them off.



Ultimately though neither of these methods would solve what I find to be the greater problem here, which is that looking at things at the state level is not nearly enough level of granularity to really make a proper risk assessment. As Scott previously pithily put it:
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 11, 2020, 01:44:39 PM
policies do not discriminate between "drove through unincorporated Ochiltree County without stopping" and "licked every toilet in Houston"

Vermont, for their part, determines whether quarantine is required for visitors on a county by county basis rather than a state by state one, at least for states that they've deemed to be within a reasonable day's drive (OH, WV, VA, and every state north and east of these).

New York and Connecticut meanwhile have gone a different route with this and while they will put entire states on the naughty list at once, they don't require you to quarantine unless you spend more than 24 hours in one. The intent of this is to not ding people for passing through naughty states en route to nice ones, but it does create an interesting loophole where in theory you can road trip all across America and not be required to quarantine upon return so long as you do not spend more than 24 hours in any single naughty state. You can even fly to Florida, go to Disney World, and spend the night so long as you get on a flight home the next day that leaves at an earlier time than your outbound flight arrived.

I wouldn't recommend doing the latter, though the former is readily exploitable for roadgeeking purposes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 10:59:45 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 22, 2020, 04:31:27 PM
Quote from: webny99 on July 22, 2020, 04:22:49 PM
States should be focused on reducing spread within their own population first: encouraging mask wearing and social distancing, scaling back bars and restaurant openings, encourage spending time outdoors, etc., etc., and worry about out-of-state travelers later, once you've got the spread contained.

Why?  The goal of the governor is presumably to keep the number of new infections low–no matter who it is that infects a resident or where they came from.  Whether an New Yorker or a fellow Kansas infects a Kansan, it's one more case regardless.  Besides which, spread cannot be "contained" without accounting for people coming from outside the state.

Because, there's only so much travel across state lines. Quarantine requirements are useful for maintaining low case numbers, but they don't have much value in reducing the case numbers in the first place. If the virus is spreading rapidly, almost all of it is happening between residents of the state, so cutting that spread out is where the big reduction in cases is going to come from.

Travel to/from other states is trivial until you've got things under control. The virus is going to keep spreading at roughly the same rate regardless of whether out-of-state visitors are allowed, until you can dramatically lower the cases through other means like the ones I mentioned above. Additionally, if potential visitors join the locals in taking these proper precautions, they're less likely to spread the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 23, 2020, 06:18:35 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/us/coronavirus-northeast-governors.html

Learn from Europe. Learn from the northeast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 23, 2020, 07:53:28 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 23, 2020, 06:18:35 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/us/coronavirus-northeast-governors.html

Learn from Europe. Learn from the northeast.

Are we learning from the northeast how to achieve the highest death rate?  The top 5 states with the highest death rates are all from the northeast.  Compare that to other states outside of the northeast that got hit hard by the virus in March (e.g., Michigan and Louisiana) and their death rates are nowhere close to the top northeastern states. 

Arizona is getting hit hard by the virus yet their death rate is only a quarter of what New York and New Jersey is (and Arizona's total cases and test positivity rates are dropping suggesting it will not see anywhere close the same number of deaths per capita as NY/NJ saw).   

(https://i.imgur.com/42Dc3vK.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 23, 2020, 08:47:30 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 23, 2020, 06:18:35 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/us/coronavirus-northeast-governors.html

Learn from Europe. Learn from the northeast.
Thing is, nobody knows what would be the long-term winning strategy. Virus eradication is out of question short term - for a decade at the very least - so long term strategy is to learn to coexist with it. Or maybe vaccine would be available in a few months. 
Virus comeback is definitely a possibility, and then all european/northeast sacrifices would be for nothing.
And I, for one, think that at least some of current measures are plain overreaction - and sometimes a costly one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 23, 2020, 11:19:50 AM
Isn't Spain having a second wave?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 23, 2020, 11:31:25 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 23, 2020, 11:19:50 AM
Isn't Spain having a second wave?
Probably just a small flare. Nothing compared to the first peak.  That's not really what they mean by the "second wave". Think about 1918 spanish flu, when the second wave was THE wave. Big concern is that history may repeat itself and we're still to see the real pandemic in action.

(https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/images/death-chart.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 23, 2020, 11:35:53 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 23, 2020, 11:31:25 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 23, 2020, 11:19:50 AM
Isn't Spain having a second wave?
Probably just a small flare. Nothing compared to the first peak.  That's not really what they mean by the "second wave". Think about 1918 spanish flu, when the second wave was THE wave. Big concern is that history may repeat itself and we're still to see the real pandemic in action.

(https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/images/death-chart.jpg)

Isn't it also suspect that the second wave of the Spanish Flu was a deadlier mutated strain?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 23, 2020, 12:04:47 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on July 23, 2020, 11:35:53 AM
Quote from: kalvado on July 23, 2020, 11:31:25 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 23, 2020, 11:19:50 AM
Isn't Spain having a second wave?
Probably just a small flare. Nothing compared to the first peak.  That's not really what they mean by the "second wave". Think about 1918 spanish flu, when the second wave was THE wave. Big concern is that history may repeat itself and we're still to see the real pandemic in action.

(https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/images/death-chart.jpg)

Isn't it also suspect that the second wave of the Spanish Flu was a deadlier mutated strain?
Who knows? Looks like the most interesting one to decipher would be the "Russian flu" of 1893. I read 2 very interesting hypotheses about that one, with ties to 1918 and 2019 events;  both of them look plausible - but there is a small problem: they are mutually exclusive. I suspect there should be some search for permafrost burials to get samples of those old viruses. Actually, 1918 virus was reconstructed that way - but it didn't quite match some parameters. Hard to tell though...  Definitely worth spending some money and effort on analyzing those events!
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 23, 2020, 12:16:14 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 23, 2020, 11:19:50 AM
Isn't Spain having a second wave?

Sort of. The most affected areas right now are Aragon (my home region) and Catalonia. The former has just announced they are tightening restrictions for some areas, including Zaragoza city which now accounts for a quarter of all new (PCR-confirmed) cases. Other areas remain under the same restrictions as before, including my hometown Huesca (which is seeing about a dozen new cases per day now and remains stable).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 23, 2020, 12:24:59 PM
Quote from: formulanone on July 22, 2020, 06:20:21 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 22, 2020, 05:34:13 PM...in effect for the entire Sixth Circuit (Michigan, Ohio, Kntuckky, and Tennessee.)

...and you've only been warning us about Louisville all these years?   :bigass:

Darn typos and fingers finding the wrong keys on the laptop keyboard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 23, 2020, 03:20:25 PM
Daily cases in Michigan have been steadily rising from a 7-day average of 181 on June 16th to an average of 743 on July 21st.  Even with a 4x increase in daily cases the daily deaths have been falling (averaging 13 daily deaths on June 16th and 8 daily deaths on July 21st).  This is with the test positivity rate rising from 1.5% to 2.7%.  So rising cases and a bump in the test positivity rate yet deaths have been dropping.  It's interesting data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US 41 on July 23, 2020, 05:38:41 PM
The Swedish model seems to be working. They hit their peak early with the deaths and it has been a constant slope downwards. They have only had a couple deaths a day lately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SSOWorld on July 23, 2020, 09:44:11 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 23, 2020, 03:20:25 PM
Daily cases in Michigan have been steadily rising from a 7-day average of 181 on June 16th to an average of 743 on July 21st.  Even with a 4x increase in daily cases the daily deaths have been falling (averaging 13 daily deaths on June 16th and 8 daily deaths on July 21st).  This is with the test positivity rate rising from 1.5% to 2.7%.  So rising cases and a bump in the test positivity rate yet deaths have been dropping.  It's interesting data.
Think about it what you said about the death rate lagging there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ozarkman417 on July 23, 2020, 11:02:00 PM
My school district has announced a strange re-entry plan for when school starts in the end of August. There is the in-person option and the online option.. even though the in-person option is only actually in person two of five days a week. Plus, Students A-K and L-Z will never see each other, which is an insult as if I wanted to do the in-person option most of my friends are A-K and my last name is L-Z.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 23, 2020, 11:03:18 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on July 23, 2020, 11:02:00 PM
My school district has announced a strange re-entry plan for when school starts in the end of August. There is the in-person option and the online option.. even though the in-person option is only actually in person two of five days a week. Plus, Students A-K and L-Z will never see each other, which is an insult as if I wanted to do the in-person option most of my friends are A-K and my last name is L-Z.

May not be a bad thing, because social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: noelbotevera on July 23, 2020, 11:14:28 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on July 23, 2020, 11:02:00 PM
My school district has announced a strange re-entry plan for when school starts in the end of August. There is the in-person option and the online option.. even though the in-person option is only actually in person two of five days a week. Plus, Students A-K and L-Z will never see each other, which is an insult as if I wanted to do the in-person option most of my friends are A-K and my last name is L-Z.
Same deal here. I'm gonna do my health a favor and opt for online, since it also frees up my schedule (more of a go-at-your-own-pace atmosphere).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 23, 2020, 11:34:45 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 23, 2020, 08:47:30 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 23, 2020, 06:18:35 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/us/coronavirus-northeast-governors.html

Learn from Europe. Learn from the northeast.
Thing is, nobody knows what would be the long-term winning strategy. Virus eradication is out of question short term - for a decade at the very least - so long term strategy is to learn to coexist with it. Or maybe vaccine would be available in a few months. 
Virus comeback is definitely a possibility, and then all european/northeast sacrifices would be for nothing.
And I, for one, think that at least some of current measures are plain overreaction - and sometimes a costly one.

We don't know what the long-term winning strategy will be, so we have to settle for a short-term winning strategy.  It may be that lives that were saved early at great cost will be lost later.  But we know that lives that are lost early will not be restored if we find that a different strategy is better in the longer term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 12:34:18 AM
Quote from: noelbotevera on July 23, 2020, 11:14:28 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on July 23, 2020, 11:02:00 PM
My school district has announced a strange re-entry plan for when school starts in the end of August. There is the in-person option and the online option.. even though the in-person option is only actually in person two of five days a week. Plus, Students A-K and L-Z will never see each other, which is an insult as if I wanted to do the in-person option most of my friends are A-K and my last name is L-Z.
Same deal here. I'm gonna do my health a favor and opt for online, since it also frees up my schedule (more of a go-at-your-own-pace atmosphere).
If there is an option, I will opt for in person as this is my senior year, and I have friends who's last name starts with all different letters so I should be fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:47:58 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 12:34:18 AM
Quote from: noelbotevera on July 23, 2020, 11:14:28 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on July 23, 2020, 11:02:00 PM
My school district has announced a strange re-entry plan for when school starts in the end of August. There is the in-person option and the online option.. even though the in-person option is only actually in person two of five days a week. Plus, Students A-K and L-Z will never see each other, which is an insult as if I wanted to do the in-person option most of my friends are A-K and my last name is L-Z.
Same deal here. I'm gonna do my health a favor and opt for online, since it also frees up my schedule (more of a go-at-your-own-pace atmosphere).
If there is an option, I will opt for in person as this is my senior year, and I have friends who's last name starts with all different letters so I should be fine.

Funny, if I had had the option, I would have opted for online, since I had people I disliked whose last names started with all different letters...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 09:23:38 AM
Schools and colleges have got to come back like normal. They should allow students to use remote learning, but that should not be mandatory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 09:43:27 AM
The Mexican government has announced that there is a possibility of resuming in-person classes in September–in states that have reached the "Green" phase of the four-phase COVID system.  Sounds like good news, right?  Well, until you realize that not a single state is even to the "Yellow" phase yet...

(https://i.imgur.com/0qLOTKy.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Eth on July 24, 2020, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 09:23:38 AM
Schools and colleges have got to come back like normal. They should allow students to use remote learning, but that should not be mandatory.

I try not to be prone to hyperbole, but normal college life right now seems like it would have a pretty good chance of near-apocalyptic consequences, at least at the local level. You're gonna have no chance whatsoever of enforcing the necessary safety precautions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 10:44:46 AM
Quote from: Eth on July 24, 2020, 10:26:46 AM

Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 09:23:38 AM
Schools and colleges have got to come back like normal. They should allow students to use remote learning, but that should not be mandatory.

I try not to be prone to hyperbole, but normal college life right now seems like it would have a pretty good chance of near-apocalyptic consequences, at least at the local level. You're gonna have no chance whatsoever of enforcing the necessary safety precautions.

I believe Rice University plans to return to in-person classes this fall, in phases.  But it won't be "normal college life", really. For example, disobedience to campus mask and distancing rules will be subject to disciplinary action.  They're also reworking their housing plan, utilizing a staggered move-in schedule, prohibiting even students from visiting other dorm floors, requiring students to clean their own rooms and bathrooms, giving students a specific timeframe for receiving lunch and dinner, etc.  Each dorm room is being treated as if its residents were a family unit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 10:59:28 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 10:44:46 AM
I believe Rice University plans to return to in-person classes this fall, in phases.  But it won't be "normal college life", really. For example, disobedience to campus mask and distancing rules will be subject to disciplinary action.  They're also reworking their housing plan, utilizing a staggered move-in schedule, prohibiting even students from visiting other dorm floors, requiring students to clean their own rooms and bathrooms, giving students a specific timeframe for receiving lunch and dinner, etc.  Each dorm room is being treated as if its residents were a family unit.

Nothing less than "normal college life" should be accepted.

It's too bad they're using a plan written in April to decide what happens in August or September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:07:24 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 10:59:28 AM
It's too bad they're using a plan written in April to decide what happens in August or September.

The most recent updates I saw on their plan were from just two weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Takumi on July 24, 2020, 11:10:08 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 10:59:28 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 10:44:46 AM
I believe Rice University plans to return to in-person classes this fall, in phases.  But it won't be "normal college life", really. For example, disobedience to campus mask and distancing rules will be subject to disciplinary action.  They're also reworking their housing plan, utilizing a staggered move-in schedule, prohibiting even students from visiting other dorm floors, requiring students to clean their own rooms and bathrooms, giving students a specific timeframe for receiving lunch and dinner, etc.  Each dorm room is being treated as if its residents were a family unit.

Nothing less than "normal college life" should be accepted.

It's too bad they're using a plan written in April to decide what happens in August or September.
August starts next week. There's zero chance this dwindles enough for that to be possible by then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:11:15 AM
Quote from: Takumi on July 24, 2020, 11:10:08 AM
August starts next week. There's zero chance this dwindles enough for that to be possible by then.

Well, the B.S. needs to end. It's been going on since March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 24, 2020, 11:12:23 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 10:59:28 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 10:44:46 AM
I believe Rice University plans to return to in-person classes this fall, in phases.  But it won't be "normal college life", really. For example, disobedience to campus mask and distancing rules will be subject to disciplinary action.  They're also reworking their housing plan, utilizing a staggered move-in schedule, prohibiting even students from visiting other dorm floors, requiring students to clean their own rooms and bathrooms, giving students a specific timeframe for receiving lunch and dinner, etc.  Each dorm room is being treated as if its residents were a family unit.

Nothing less than "normal college life" should be accepted.

It's too bad they're using a plan written in April to decide what happens in August or September.
I fully agree. Teaching responsibility, ability to handle crisis, thinking about others?
No way!
Just set up a refrigeration trailer near those dorms and get done with it. We have too many people on the planet anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 10:59:28 AM
Nothing less than "normal college life" should be accepted.

I don't buy such an all-or-nothing approach.  As so many colleges are either delaying their start date or doing virtual only, it would be quite irresponsible for one to just say, Ah, screw it, let's see what happens!

Instead, they've been devoting significant time, effort, and money into making college life happen again.  And, IMHO, some of their changes are simply a good idea anyway and should probably stick around after the virus dies down.  They might end up being a model that other institutions can follow into the daylight.

Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:11:15 AM
Well, the B.S. needs to end. It's been going on since March.

What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

Pretending the virus is gone doesn't make it go away.  A lot of the preventive measures should be fairly easy to deal with, the way Rice is doing things.  And don't reduce their safety procedures to "hype".
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 11:24:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden
America is not Sweden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Takumi on July 24, 2020, 11:28:24 AM
Quote
We have too many people on the planet anyway.
I actually agree with this statement, but I also know that letting the plague go willy-nilly across the planet isn't the morally/ethically/socially responsible way to change that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 24, 2020, 11:41:05 AM
Quote from: Takumi on July 24, 2020, 11:28:24 AM
Quote
We have too many people on the planet anyway.
I actually agree with this statement, but I also know that letting the plague go willy-nilly across the planet isn't the morally/ethically/socially responsible way to change that.
Well, there are two ways Mother Nature deals with overabundant species: hunger and epidemics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article244429392.html#storylink=sectionheadlines

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county?fbclid=IwAR3qMOusmGuhNDr1KcXYqs_FMayemQHABKWgW3WvbZO-8nEKaZPHYqK2dKY

See why so many are rightfully skeptical of what's being fed to us?

http://kentuckyvalleyviews.blogspot.com/2020/07/reasons-for-healthy-skepticism.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:53:06 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden

Sweden's numbers have recently been dropping precipitously, but they only started dropping about 4 weeks ago.

In contrast, Germany, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands' numbers started dropping precipitously at least 3 months ago.  Finland's numbers started doing so more than 2 months ago.

And, as for total numbers in the region...

(https://i.imgur.com/esh4zES.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:54:11 AM
Sweden has fewer cases per capita than the U.S. does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:56:39 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article244429392.html#storylink=sectionheadlines

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county?fbclid=IwAR3qMOusmGuhNDr1KcXYqs_FMayemQHABKWgW3WvbZO-8nEKaZPHYqK2dKY

See why so many are rightfully skeptical of what's being fed to us?

http://kentuckyvalleyviews.blogspot.com/2020/07/reasons-for-healthy-skepticism.html

Meanwhile our family's good friends, who developed COVID-like symptoms after having been close contacts to someone who tested positive for COVID (having been exposed while working in healthcare), have treated their negative test result as a false negative–self-isolating for two weeks despite the negative result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 24, 2020, 11:58:52 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 11:24:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden
America is not Sweden.

Michigan is Sweden:

-Michigan and Sweden have nearly identical populations. 
-Michigan and Sweden have similar covid deaths (6,395 in Michigan vs. 5,676 deaths in Sweden).
-Michigan and Sweden both saw recent upticks in daily cases without a corresponding increase in deaths.
-Michigan and Sweden were both hit hard by the virus in the Spring. 
-Michigan and Sweden have similar looking daily death curves.

(https://i.imgur.com/bv8XC4Ol.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:54:11 AM
Sweden has fewer cases per capita than the U.S. does.

This is true.

Does anyone know why Sweden's numbers started tumbling about four weeks ago?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 12:04:20 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:54:11 AM
Sweden has fewer cases per capita than the U.S. does.

This is true.

Does anyone know why Sweden's numbers started tumbling about four weeks ago?

They probably reached herd immunity.

I think the same happened in much of the Northeastern U.S. and it's probably happening in Arizona now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 24, 2020, 12:09:19 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 12:04:20 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:54:11 AM
Sweden has fewer cases per capita than the U.S. does.

This is true.

Does anyone know why Sweden's numbers started tumbling about four weeks ago?

They probably reached herd immunity.

I think the same happened in much of the Northeastern U.S. and it's probably happening in Arizona now.

VT, NH, and ME are acting like the rest of the northeast, despite never getting a first wave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 12:10:32 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 24, 2020, 12:09:19 PM
VT, NH, and ME are acting like the rest of the northeast, despite never getting a first wave.

Those states probably don't have enough major cities to have many cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 24, 2020, 12:11:42 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:54:11 AM
Sweden has fewer cases per capita than the U.S. does.

This is true.

Does anyone know why Sweden's numbers started tumbling about four weeks ago?

My guess is the virus ran out of people to infect. I keep looking back at NYC and refuse to believe that their low numbers today is due to everyone properly socially distancing and wearing masks.  Do we really believe people of NYC are doing that much better at socially distancing than the people of Miami?  My belief is the fire raged out of control in NYC during the Spring and there is simply nothing left to burn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 12:16:19 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 12:10:32 PM

Quote from: 1 on July 24, 2020, 12:09:19 PM
VT, NH, and ME are acting like the rest of the northeast, despite never getting a first wave.

Those states probably don't have enough major cities to have many cases.

There are only a couple that top 50,000 population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 12:18:41 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 12:04:20 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Does anyone know why Sweden's numbers started tumbling about four weeks ago?

They probably reached herd immunity.

So is that just what you want to be the reason?  Or is any scientist actually saying that's the reason?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 12:20:08 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:54:11 AM
Sweden has fewer cases per capita than the U.S. does.

This is true.

Does anyone know why Sweden's numbers started tumbling about four weeks ago?

I do.  It is summer there and Swedes take their vacation time seriously, often spending it in log cabins and other types of rustic second homes out in the country.  So there is a lot of natural social distancing going on in places like Jämtland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 12:21:42 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 12:20:08 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Does anyone know why Sweden's numbers started tumbling about four weeks ago?

I do.  It is summer there and Swedes take their vacation time seriously, often spending it in log cabins and other types of rustic second homes out in the country.  So there is a lot of natural social distancing going on in places like Jämtland.

So is that just what you want to be the reason?  Or is any scientist actually saying that's the reason?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jakeroot on July 24, 2020, 12:36:35 PM
I would like to mention that, as it relates to colleges, there are some that start much later than others. I know a lot of kids "go back" at the beginning of next month. That's the middle of our summer here in the PNW.

I am attending one more year at the University of Washington. Our Autumn 2020 start date is 30 Sept (https://www.tacoma.uw.edu/office-registrar/academic-calendar-2020-2021).

This is why, by and large, there has not been (https://www.washington.edu/coronavirus/) any solid news yet, with regard to moving everything or just some things online. Too many variables at play.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 12:53:47 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 12:21:42 PMSo is that just what you want to be the reason?  Or is any scientist actually saying that's the reason?

The summer vacation season was mentioned in a Slate article last week (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-sweden-herd-immunity.html) (the person being interviewed is described as a former medical researcher).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 24, 2020, 12:57:31 PM
Herd immunity could have a partial effect. For example, let's say that R is 1.2 with current conditions (most people wearing masks, large gatherings closed, etc.) and no herd immunity. If 25% have been infected enough to be immune, R becomes 0.9, and infections are decreasing.

rt.live says that R is 1.06 in MA, 0.99 in CT, 1.07 in RI, and 1.04 in NH. (These numbers are all close enough that they're the same number within the margin of error.) We don't know what percent is immune, but even if it's 10%, that means that it would be above 1.10 if there was no herd immunity – a faster increase than what there currently is. That being said, the numbers per state don't seem to differ for NH and VT vs. the rest of the northeast.

(Maine had 0 positives on July 22, which is likely a data issue. Its R value of 0.84 might not be accurate right now.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 24, 2020, 01:38:16 PM
Quote from: 1 on July 24, 2020, 12:57:31 PM
Herd immunity could have a partial effect. For example, let's say that R is 1.2 with current conditions (most people wearing masks, large gatherings closed, etc.) and no herd immunity. If 25% have been infected enough to be immune, R becomes 0.9, and infections are decreasing.

rt.live says that R is 1.06 in MA, 0.99 in CT, 1.07 in RI, and 1.04 in NH. (These numbers are all close enough that they're the same number within the margin of error.) We don't know what percent is immune, but even if it's 10%, that means that it would be above 1.10 if there was no herd immunity – a faster increase than what there currently is. That being said, the numbers per state don't seem to differ for NH and VT vs. the rest of the northeast.

(Maine had 0 positives on July 22, which is likely a data issue. Its R value of 0.84 might not be accurate right now.)
R is conditions-based. If  R=0.9 is with bars and schools closed and mask mandates in place - it can easily become R=1.2 if those are open and 1.5 if masks are no longer worn. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 01:38:45 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 12:53:47 PM

Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 12:21:42 PM
So is that just what you want to be the reason?  Or is any scientist actually saying that's the reason?

The summer vacation season was mentioned in a Slate article last week (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-sweden-herd-immunity.html) (the person being interviewed is described as a former medical researcher).

Which is also speculation, as she stated in the interview.  I don't mean to dis Lena Einhorn but, while she does have a doctorate degree in virology, she hasn't been in the medical research field since the 1980s.  She's a filmmaker-turned-author who hasn't even done science TV programs since the early 1990s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 03:18:56 PM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 01:38:45 PMWhich is also speculation, as she stated in the interview.  I don't mean to dis Lena Einhorn but, while she does have a doctorate degree in virology, she hasn't been in the medical research field since the 1980s.  She's a filmmaker-turned-author who hasn't even done science TV programs since the early 1990s.

You have dug much more deeply into Dr. Einhorn's background than I have.

I will be frank:  my main reason for bringing up the Swedish summer vacation season is to stick a crowbar between the spokes of the "herd immunity in Sweden" talking point, which is often used to buttress the argument that the US should pursue the same.  As someone who has visited Sweden, I have a sense of the cultural differences that this glosses over, and can envision ways in which a given approach to disease management could look the same on paper for both countries yet succeed there while leading to disaster here.  The stylized fact is that Swedish society is much more cohesive, so compliance with social distancing requirements there is described as quite good, for example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on July 24, 2020, 03:59:29 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:47:58 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 12:34:18 AM
Quote from: noelbotevera on July 23, 2020, 11:14:28 PM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on July 23, 2020, 11:02:00 PM
My school district has announced a strange re-entry plan for when school starts in the end of August. There is the in-person option and the online option.. even though the in-person option is only actually in person two of five days a week. Plus, Students A-K and L-Z will never see each other, which is an insult as if I wanted to do the in-person option most of my friends are A-K and my last name is L-Z.
Same deal here. I'm gonna do my health a favor and opt for online, since it also frees up my schedule (more of a go-at-your-own-pace atmosphere).
If there is an option, I will opt for in person as this is my senior year, and I have friends who's last name starts with all different letters so I should be fine.

Funny, if I had had the option, I would have opted for online, since I had people I disliked whose last names started with all different letters...

Same here. I'm glad I graduated (2007) long before this pandemic hit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 04:02:16 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 03:18:56 PM
I will be frank:  my main reason for bringing up the Swedish summer vacation season is to stick a crowbar between the spokes of the "herd immunity in Sweden" talking point, which is often used to buttress the argument that the US should pursue the same.

As mentioned already a few times on here, I don't buy herd immunity as a reasonable strategy to begin with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:04:39 PM
I have just resigned from my job because I was ordered to expose myself to what I consider an unnecessary level of risk of catching the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 24, 2020, 04:05:39 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:04:39 PM
I have just resigned from my job because I was ordered to expose myself to what I consider an unnecessary level of risk of catching the virus.

OMG, really?  You had been there quite a while, hadn't you? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 04:22:15 PM
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fauci-threats-wife-daughters-family/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=94959066

Imagine threatening people because you aren't willing to accept science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Takumi on July 24, 2020, 04:29:47 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 24, 2020, 11:41:05 AM
Quote from: Takumi on July 24, 2020, 11:28:24 AM
Quote
We have too many people on the planet anyway.
I actually agree with this statement, but I also know that letting the plague go willy-nilly across the planet isn't the morally/ethically/socially responsible way to change that.
Well, there are two ways Mother Nature deals with overabundant species: hunger and epidemics.
Sure, but more people could choose to either not have kids, or to adopt, though the latter is often complicated. Of course, there's still a major social stigma against those of us who don't want kids (and communities like r/childfree don't exactly help the optics of that).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:56:13 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 24, 2020, 04:05:39 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:04:39 PM
I have just resigned from my job because I was ordered to expose myself to what I consider an unnecessary level of risk of catching the virus.

OMG, really?  You had been there quite a while, hadn't you? 


Yes, I had worked for the Chickasaw Nation for 10½ years. Since 2014, I had been a cage cashier and picked up the extra responsibilities of an OTB teller last year. The Chickasaw Nation had closed all of its casinos as non-essential businesses between mid-March and the end of May, and unlike most places, we were still paid during the shutdown, which was very generous. When we reopened at the end of May, plexiglas shields had been installed at the cages at the behest of the tribal management in Ada. Tribal management had also issued a mask mandate and social distancing rules, requiring the removal of every other chair at the slot machines.

Crucially, however, the Chickasaw Nation did not mandate the same rules that New Jersey did as a condition to reopening Atlantic City, meaning that patrons are free to smoke, drink, and eat on the floor. Of course, you cannot do these things wearing a mask. This led to situations where people would do things like buying a candy bar, taking one bite, and then hanging out without a mask covering their face claiming to security that they had it down because they were eating. Smoking is a particularly dangerous habit during a pandemic; with smoke, you can actually see how far someone's breath can go, and it's not a particularly reassuring thought to think of viruses potentially being mixed in with the smoke.

All of this made me uncomfortable, and I expressed these concerns to management in May. However, because I was separated from all of this by the plexiglas shields, I figured the viral load I was exposed to would be comparatively small. This made the situation barely tolerable, especially since a number of employee amenities had been discontinued due to the pandemic (employee water coolers, for instance, were removed, meaning that if I wanted to fix myself a cup of ramen for lunch, I would have to get water from the tap in the customer restroom or bring a suitable amount from home).

This all came to a head when cases in Oklahoma started to spike again, and facility management (i.e. at a lower level than Ada) decided that all employees, including those not normally on the gaming floor, such as cage, vault, and soft count, would be required to spend part of the day out on the floor sanitizing machines. While I am not per se opposed to undertaking cleaning duties, the Chickasaw Nation had already hired an outside vendor to perform the same duties, in addition to the same duties being done by in-house housekeeping staff. To do this would mean exposing myself to the environment described above: smokers, drinkers, people with flimsy excuses for not wearing a mask. I was called in the office today and told that everyone in the department was required to clean the gaming floor, that there would be no exceptions, and that refusal to do so would result in disciplinary action.

This was not a position my manager would budge from, because it came from management above her, and she was not willing to lead by sticking her neck out to protect her employees. So I resigned, absent any other option.

Since I wasn't going out and doing anything during the shutdown, I was able to save almost all of the money I was paid during that time. I also saved the majority of my CARES Act stimulus money, as well as savings from other sources. So I will be fine until this all settles down, I hope.

During the shutdown, a couple of my (now-former) coworkers decided to start putting together a medical marijuana grow business (legal in Oklahoma), and I have been asked to join them to help with the administrative side of things, since I have been running a small business on the side for years. So, ironically, despite my being made fun of on here a couple years back for not knowing the price of weed, I now find myself part of the industry. Funny how life works out, huh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 05:07:42 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:56:13 PMSince I wasn't going out and doing anything during the shutdown, I was able to save almost all of the money I was paid during that time. I also saved the majority of my CARES Act stimulus money, as well as savings from other sources. So I will be fine until this all settles down, I hope.

During the shutdown, a couple of my (now-former) coworkers decided to start putting together a medical marijuana grow business (legal in Oklahoma), and I have been asked to join them to help with the administrative side of things, since I have been running a small business on the side for years. So, ironically, despite my being made fun of on here a couple years back for not knowing the price of weed, I now find myself part of the industry. Funny how life works out, huh?

Best wishes for success with the new venture!  It should be more fun and rewarding than your old job, which sounded like it afforded very little employee autonomy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 06:30:27 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:56:13 PM
This all came to a head when cases in Oklahoma started to spike again, and facility management (i.e. at a lower level than Ada) decided that all employees, including those not normally on the gaming floor, such as cage, vault, and soft count, would be required to spend part of the day out on the floor sanitizing machines. While I am not per se opposed to undertaking cleaning duties, the Chickasaw Nation had already hired an outside vendor to perform the same duties, in addition to the same duties being done by in-house housekeeping staff. To do this would mean exposing myself to the environment described above: smokers, drinkers, people with flimsy excuses for not wearing a mask. I was called in the office today and told that everyone in the department was required to clean the gaming floor, that there would be no exceptions, and that refusal to do so would result in disciplinary action.

If masks work, then if you wore yours, it shouldn't have been an issue. Your risk wouldn't be that high.

Having said that, you should have made them fire you. Unless I misunderstand how it works, or unless state laws are different, if you're let go due to concerns over the virus, you're eligible for unemployment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on July 24, 2020, 06:34:23 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:56:13 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 24, 2020, 04:05:39 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:04:39 PM
I have just resigned from my job because I was ordered to expose myself to what I consider an unnecessary level of risk of catching the virus.

OMG, really?  You had been there quite a while, hadn't you? 


Yes, I had worked for the Chickasaw Nation for 10½ years. Since 2014, I had been a cage cashier and picked up the extra responsibilities of an OTB teller last year. The Chickasaw Nation had closed all of its casinos as non-essential businesses between mid-March and the end of May, and unlike most places, we were still paid during the shutdown, which was very generous. When we reopened at the end of May, plexiglas shields had been installed at the cages at the behest of the tribal management in Ada. Tribal management had also issued a mask mandate and social distancing rules, requiring the removal of every other chair at the slot machines.

Crucially, however, the Chickasaw Nation did not mandate the same rules that New Jersey did as a condition to reopening Atlantic City, meaning that patrons are free to smoke, drink, and eat on the floor. Of course, you cannot do these things wearing a mask. This led to situations where people would do things like buying a candy bar, taking one bite, and then hanging out without a mask covering their face claiming to security that they had it down because they were eating. Smoking is a particularly dangerous habit during a pandemic; with smoke, you can actually see how far someone's breath can go, and it's not a particularly reassuring thought to think of viruses potentially being mixed in with the smoke.

All of this made me uncomfortable, and I expressed these concerns to management in May. However, because I was separated from all of this by the plexiglas shields, I figured the viral load I was exposed to would be comparatively small. This made the situation barely tolerable, especially since a number of employee amenities had been discontinued due to the pandemic (employee water coolers, for instance, were removed, meaning that if I wanted to fix myself a cup of ramen for lunch, I would have to get water from the tap in the customer restroom or bring a suitable amount from home).

This all came to a head when cases in Oklahoma started to spike again, and facility management (i.e. at a lower level than Ada) decided that all employees, including those not normally on the gaming floor, such as cage, vault, and soft count, would be required to spend part of the day out on the floor sanitizing machines. While I am not per se opposed to undertaking cleaning duties, the Chickasaw Nation had already hired an outside vendor to perform the same duties, in addition to the same duties being done by in-house housekeeping staff. To do this would mean exposing myself to the environment described above: smokers, drinkers, people with flimsy excuses for not wearing a mask. I was called in the office today and told that everyone in the department was required to clean the gaming floor, that there would be no exceptions, and that refusal to do so would result in disciplinary action.

This was not a position my manager would budge from, because it came from management above her, and she was not willing to lead by sticking her neck out to protect her employees. So I resigned, absent any other option.

Since I wasn't going out and doing anything during the shutdown, I was able to save almost all of the money I was paid during that time. I also saved the majority of my CARES Act stimulus money, as well as savings from other sources. So I will be fine until this all settles down, I hope.

During the shutdown, a couple of my (now-former) coworkers decided to start putting together a medical marijuana grow business (legal in Oklahoma), and I have been asked to join them to help with the administrative side of things, since I have been running a small business on the side for years. So, ironically, despite my being made fun of on here a couple years back for not knowing the price of weed, I now find myself part of the industry. Funny how life works out, huh?

Oklahoma's medpot laws look even easier to deal with than California's before that state legalized recreational MJ.  You might wind up working in a growing field...LOL!

(that can be taken two ways so enjoy a laugh)

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 06:43:12 PM
Quote from: J N Winkler on July 24, 2020, 05:07:42 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:56:13 PMSince I wasn't going out and doing anything during the shutdown, I was able to save almost all of the money I was paid during that time. I also saved the majority of my CARES Act stimulus money, as well as savings from other sources. So I will be fine until this all settles down, I hope.

During the shutdown, a couple of my (now-former) coworkers decided to start putting together a medical marijuana grow business (legal in Oklahoma), and I have been asked to join them to help with the administrative side of things, since I have been running a small business on the side for years. So, ironically, despite my being made fun of on here a couple years back for not knowing the price of weed, I now find myself part of the industry. Funny how life works out, huh?

Best wishes for success with the new venture!  It should be more fun and rewarding than your old job, which sounded like it afforded very little employee autonomy.

Thank you for the well wishes! Yes, that was one of the worst things about it. This lack of autonomy is mostly driven by a desire for compliance with gaming rules theoretically written to ensure compliance with NIGC regulations and the state-tribal gaming compact. However, it resulted in a management structure that is utterly inflexible on matters both big and small, and suffers the age-old problem that those writing and interpreting are people who do so by trade, and who are wholly alienated from what actually goes on at the front-line level. As someone who considers themselves a creative person, it was not really a great fit from the start, so it was always a question of not if but when I would be moving on. The pandemic basically served to hasten an exit that was inevitable in the long term.

I am excited about the new venture, because I have an established positive work history with my two partners, and we are very much on the same page when it comes to company culture and expectations. I am also happy to be rid of direct customer service obligations, which have never really been my cup of tea.

Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 06:30:27 PM
If masks work, then if you wore yours, it shouldn't have been an issue. Your risk wouldn't be that high.

The masks we were required to wear–we were not allowed to wear masks from home, only those provided by the facility–were disposable surgical masks. They were not N95 masks, so I don't believe they did anything meaningful to block incoming viral load, only outgoing.

QuoteHaving said that, you should have made them fire you. Unless I misunderstand how it works, or unless state laws are different, if you're let go due to concerns over the virus, you're eligible for unemployment.

I had considered this course of action, but interpreting how state law might apply to tribal entities was fraught before McGirt v. Oklahoma, and is even more so now. I could have held out and tried to see what would happen, but honestly I don't need the stress in my life. It's better for my mental state to just be done with it and make a clean break.

Additionally, I am the fourth employee on the shift (out of ten scheduled per day) to leave their position this month, and the second for this specific reason. I am hoping my resignation will lead to better outcomes for my former coworkers, if for no other reason than they no longer have the available manpower to cover both regular duties and cleaning.

Quote from: nexus73 on July 24, 2020, 06:34:23 PM
Oklahoma's medpot laws look even easier to deal with than California's before that state legalized recreational MJ.  You might wind up working in a growing field...LOL!

(that can be taken two ways so enjoy a laugh)

That's the hope! Oklahoma's laws are currently fairly strict compared to other states', but we are very early on in the legalization, so I'm hoping they'll be streamlined as time goes on. And with a growing movement for recreational here, there's definitely a lot of potential for growth, in both ways! :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 06:43:57 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 06:30:27 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 04:56:13 PM
This all came to a head when cases in Oklahoma started to spike again, and facility management (i.e. at a lower level than Ada) decided that all employees, including those not normally on the gaming floor, such as cage, vault, and soft count, would be required to spend part of the day out on the floor sanitizing machines. While I am not per se opposed to undertaking cleaning duties, the Chickasaw Nation had already hired an outside vendor to perform the same duties, in addition to the same duties being done by in-house housekeeping staff. To do this would mean exposing myself to the environment described above: smokers, drinkers, people with flimsy excuses for not wearing a mask. I was called in the office today and told that everyone in the department was required to clean the gaming floor, that there would be no exceptions, and that refusal to do so would result in disciplinary action.

If masks work, then if you wore yours, it shouldn't have been an issue. Your risk wouldn't be that high.

Having said that, you should have made them fire you. Unless I misunderstand how it works, or unless state laws are different, if you're let go due to concerns over the virus, you're eligible for unemployment.
Masks are more for protecting others than yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 24, 2020, 07:08:33 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article244429392.html#storylink=sectionheadlines

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county?fbclid=IwAR3qMOusmGuhNDr1KcXYqs_FMayemQHABKWgW3WvbZO-8nEKaZPHYqK2dKY

See why so many are rightfully skeptical of what's being fed to us?

http://kentuckyvalleyviews.blogspot.com/2020/07/reasons-for-healthy-skepticism.html

Sigh

Already showed why this was bogus and how COVID deaths are actually being undercounted.

But yeah. Keep clinging to the info you want.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 24, 2020, 07:10:10 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden

Lol. This isn't going to end by wishing it away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SectorZ on July 24, 2020, 07:10:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 11:24:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden
America is not Sweden.

Like with heavy metal music, they're better than us in this case, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 07:27:06 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on July 24, 2020, 07:10:50 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 11:24:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden
America is not Sweden.

Like with heavy metal music, they're better than us in this case, too.

Hey, at least we don't have Tratex...
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: ftballfan on July 24, 2020, 08:17:14 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 24, 2020, 11:58:52 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 11:24:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden
America is not Sweden.

Michigan is Sweden:

-Michigan and Sweden have nearly identical populations. 
-Michigan and Sweden have similar covid deaths (6,395 in Michigan vs. 5,676 deaths in Sweden).
-Michigan and Sweden both saw recent upticks in daily cases without a corresponding increase in deaths.
-Michigan and Sweden were both hit hard by the virus in the Spring. 
-Michigan and Sweden have similar looking daily death curves.

(https://i.imgur.com/bv8XC4Ol.png)


I remember seeing in early April that Michigan was third in recorded cases (only behind New York and New Jersey). According to worldometers (which includes probable cases, which aren't included in some sources), Michigan is now 14th in cases and will likely get passed by VA, OH, MD, SC, and AL within the next 1 to 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: LM117 on July 25, 2020, 04:06:29 AM
SCOTUS has ruled in favor of Nevada, regarding it's policy of limiting the number of people attending church in person.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/politics/supreme-court-nevada-church/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/politics/supreme-court-nevada-church/index.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kphoger on July 25, 2020, 11:03:40 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 24, 2020, 06:43:12 PM
I am also happy to be rid of direct customer service obligations, which have never really been my cup of tea.

In my opinion, that might end up being the brightest light on your horizon.  It's always good when a job change results in something more in line with your own personality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 25, 2020, 07:03:23 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 24, 2020, 07:08:33 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article244429392.html#storylink=sectionheadlines

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county?fbclid=IwAR3qMOusmGuhNDr1KcXYqs_FMayemQHABKWgW3WvbZO-8nEKaZPHYqK2dKY

See why so many are rightfully skeptical of what's being fed to us?

http://kentuckyvalleyviews.blogspot.com/2020/07/reasons-for-healthy-skepticism.html

Sigh

Already showed why this was bogus and how COVID deaths are actually being undercounted.

But yeah. Keep clinging to the info you want.

You get factual examples of deaths being misreported, and you still keep clinging to the info YOU want.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: US71 on July 25, 2020, 07:43:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 25, 2020, 07:03:23 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 24, 2020, 07:08:33 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article244429392.html#storylink=sectionheadlines

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county?fbclid=IwAR3qMOusmGuhNDr1KcXYqs_FMayemQHABKWgW3WvbZO-8nEKaZPHYqK2dKY

See why so many are rightfully skeptical of what's being fed to us?

http://kentuckyvalleyviews.blogspot.com/2020/07/reasons-for-healthy-skepticism.html

Sigh

Already showed why this was bogus and how COVID deaths are actually being undercounted.

But yeah. Keep clinging to the info you want.

You get factual examples of deaths being misreported, and you still keep clinging to the info YOU want.


Who decides which numbers are correct? The CDC had their authority stripped by Trump  cuz, you know, those numbers make him look bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 25, 2020, 07:51:31 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 25, 2020, 07:43:32 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 25, 2020, 07:03:23 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 24, 2020, 07:08:33 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article244429392.html#storylink=sectionheadlines

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county?fbclid=IwAR3qMOusmGuhNDr1KcXYqs_FMayemQHABKWgW3WvbZO-8nEKaZPHYqK2dKY

See why so many are rightfully skeptical of what's being fed to us?

http://kentuckyvalleyviews.blogspot.com/2020/07/reasons-for-healthy-skepticism.html

Sigh

Already showed why this was bogus and how COVID deaths are actually being undercounted.

But yeah. Keep clinging to the info you want.

You get factual examples of deaths being misreported, and you still keep clinging to the info YOU want.


Who decides which numbers are correct? The CDC had their authority stripped by Trump  cuz, you know, those numbers make him look bad.
Putin will publish correct numbers before the election. Those would probably be the most accurate numbers one would get.

On a more serious note - there will be some census estimates, public records estimates etc.
Actually there are pretty good estimates of the number of excess deaths. I posted NYC numbers before, someone had US totals. Looks like number of excess deaths exceeds number of COVID reported deaths by a factor of 1.5-2.
And it is impossible to argue with having those excess numbers - footage of refrigeration trailers and mass graves in NYC is out there.
Yes, there are errors reported both ways. These days autopsy is out of favor with families, and doctors certainly have better things to do. Finding a couple of mistakes (or couple hundred of mistakes) proves pretty much nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 25, 2020, 08:55:42 PM
At least one place in south Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, has set up ethics committees, death panels, in case they have to decide which patients to let die.  They've been shipping ICU patients all over Texas and to Oklahoma City.  It's a very hard hit area.  And today they got hit by a hurricane.  I've read about giant jellyfish in the Atlantic, and a plague of locusts, I think in India.  It makes me wonder which chapter of Revelation will be playing tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 25, 2020, 09:16:34 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 25, 2020, 08:55:42 PM
At least one place in south Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, has set up ethics committees, death panels, in case they have to decide which patients to let die.  They've been shipping ICU patients all over Texas and to Oklahoma City.  It's a very hard hit area.  And today they got hit by a hurricane.  I've read about giant jellyfish in the Atlantic, and a plague of locusts, I think in India.  It makes me wonder which chapter of Revelation will be playing tomorrow.
locusts are raging in eastern Africa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 25, 2020, 10:09:47 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 25, 2020, 08:55:42 PM
At least one place in south Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, has set up ethics committees, death panels, in case they have to decide which patients to let die.  They've been shipping ICU patients all over Texas and to Oklahoma City.

And Oklahoma City is shipping patients to Lawton and Wichita Falls. It's getting bad all over the south plains.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 25, 2020, 10:31:56 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 25, 2020, 08:55:42 PM
At least one place in south Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, has set up ethics committees, death panels, in case they have to decide which patients to let die.  They've been shipping ICU patients all over Texas and to Oklahoma City.  It's a very hard hit area.  And today they got hit by a hurricane.  I've read about giant jellyfish in the Atlantic, and a plague of locusts, I think in India.  It makes me wonder which chapter of Revelation will be playing tomorrow.
The end times are near.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Scott5114 on July 25, 2020, 10:59:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 25, 2020, 10:31:56 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 25, 2020, 08:55:42 PM
At least one place in south Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, has set up ethics committees, death panels, in case they have to decide which patients to let die.  They've been shipping ICU patients all over Texas and to Oklahoma City.  It's a very hard hit area.  And today they got hit by a hurricane.  I've read about giant jellyfish in the Atlantic, and a plague of locusts, I think in India.  It makes me wonder which chapter of Revelation will be playing tomorrow.
The end times are near.

if there's not an "END" sign to take a picture of i'm gonna be so damn pissed
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: J N Winkler on July 25, 2020, 11:07:11 PM
In the US as a whole, we have been losing 1,000 or more a day since last Tuesday (July 21).  We were last over that threshold between April 2 and June 3 inclusive, a period of about two months.  I am afraid it may take longer for the death rate to go back down this time since we are doing less to limit spread (mostly mandatory mask orders, with bar closures in some areas) and a younger population is affected, which I think will result in fatal cases taking longer to play out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: wxfree on July 26, 2020, 01:51:30 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 25, 2020, 10:59:44 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 25, 2020, 10:31:56 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 25, 2020, 08:55:42 PM
At least one place in south Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, has set up ethics committees, death panels, in case they have to decide which patients to let die.  They've been shipping ICU patients all over Texas and to Oklahoma City.  It's a very hard hit area.  And today they got hit by a hurricane.  I've read about giant jellyfish in the Atlantic, and a plague of locusts, I think in India.  It makes me wonder which chapter of Revelation will be playing tomorrow.
The end times are near.

if there's not an "END" sign to take a picture of i'm gonna be so damn pissed

I want to know what kind of shield it'll have.  I've never seen anything above Interstate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tolbs17 on July 26, 2020, 03:47:09 AM
Looks like the US is peaking at 65,000 cases. Is this the last wave?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: jeffandnicole on July 26, 2020, 08:28:25 AM
Quote from: tolbs17 on July 26, 2020, 03:47:09 AM
Looks like the US is peaking at 65,000 cases. Is this the last wave?

Should we use a Magic 8 ball?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: GaryV on July 26, 2020, 08:59:51 AM
"Reply hazy, ask again"

"Cannot predict now"

"Ask again later"
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 26, 2020, 10:27:13 AM
Quote from: tolbs17 on July 26, 2020, 03:47:09 AM
Looks like the US is peaking at 65,000 cases. Is this the last wave?
Haven't we passed 70K cases?
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hotdogPi on July 26, 2020, 10:48:54 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 26, 2020, 10:27:13 AM
Quote from: tolbs17 on July 26, 2020, 03:47:09 AM
Looks like the US is peaking at 65,000 cases. Is this the last wave?
Haven't we passed 70K cases?

65,000 is the 7-day average.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 26, 2020, 11:01:39 AM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 15, 2020, 12:06:57 PM
QuoteCalifornia coronavirus deaths hit stubborn plateau; experts fearful about future
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-11/california-coronavirus-deaths-have-reached-stubborn-plateau

"If we were to see the kind of spike that's predicted in that model, that would be extraordinarily worrisome,"  said Barbara Ferrer, director of public health for Los Angeles County, which so far has seen 56% of all of California's coronavirus deaths despite being home to one-quarter of the state's population.

If the model's projections became reality, Ferrer said that would result in an even slower reopening of society in L.A. County or force the nation's most populous county to reimplement stricter stay-at-home measures. L.A. County implemented its first major easing of stay-at-home measures on Friday, allowing some retail businesses to open for curbside pickup, and plans to reopen beaches for active recreation this week.

Right now California is reporting nearly as many daily deaths as New York even as an influential model is forecasting that California will see a large increases in projected cumulative deaths by August.  This has led to LA County to extend their lock down measures for another 3 months.  But if California is unable to lower the daily deaths, what good are the current lock down orders doing?  A state could average 1000 deaths per day for 18 days (think New York) or a state could average 100 deaths per day for the next 6 months (think California).  Overall the deaths are the same.

(https://i.imgur.com/pwyI5vJ.png)

California is about to surpass Massachusetts to become the state with the 3rd most Covid-19 deaths.  California was the earliest state to lock-down and imposed some of the strictest lock-down measures yet they are still seeing their daily deaths rising.  The story of the tortoise and the hare continues, but California is slowly becoming the hare as their daily deaths ramp up despite of all the states measures taken to try to contain the virus. 

(https://i.imgur.com/Z3QeKeU.png)

The good news for the country is that once California sees their big outbreak, all 5 major states will have gone through the pandemic (CA, NY, FL, TX, PA).  Maybe once the last big regional outbreak occurs in California over the coming months, things can start to return to normal. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: nexus73 on July 26, 2020, 11:28:49 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 25, 2020, 10:31:56 PM
Quote from: wxfree on July 25, 2020, 08:55:42 PM
At least one place in south Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, has set up ethics committees, death panels, in case they have to decide which patients to let die.  They've been shipping ICU patients all over Texas and to Oklahoma City.  It's a very hard hit area.  And today they got hit by a hurricane.  I've read about giant jellyfish in the Atlantic, and a plague of locusts, I think in India.  It makes me wonder which chapter of Revelation will be playing tomorrow.
The end times are near.

"Murder hornets" from Japan are present in Whatcom County WA.  They kinda-sorta sound like the bugs described in Revelations. 

Rick
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 26, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
Currently Australia has reported 155 COVID-19 deaths.  But the country has only reported 36 flu related deaths this year compared to 430 during the same period last year (or 394 fewer flu deaths).  So while the coronavirus has cost 155 Australian lives, it may have saved 394 lives due to the social distancing and mask wearing measures taken to fight the coronavirus.  It can be argued that during this worldwide pandemic that lives have been saved in Australia.

Flu deaths drop in Australia as coronavirus restrictions save hundreds of lives
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restrictions-cause-flu-cases-to-drop-australia/12480190
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Max Rockatansky on July 26, 2020, 01:39:21 PM
Seems the new Planet of the Apes movies were onto something with the whole pandemic angle:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/safari-park-baboons-knives-chainsaw-160316231.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Roadgeekteen on July 26, 2020, 02:05:31 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 26, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
Currently Australia has reported 155 COVID-19 deaths.  But the country has only reported 36 flu related deaths this year compared to 430 during the same period last year (or 394 fewer flu deaths).  So while the coronavirus has cost 155 Australian lives, it may have saved 394 lives due to the social distancing and mask wearing measures taken to fight the coronavirus.  It can be argued that during this worldwide pandemic that lives have been saved in Australia.

Flu deaths drop in Australia as coronavirus restrictions save hundreds of lives
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restrictions-cause-flu-cases-to-drop-australia/12480190
I wish I lived in Australia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: kalvado on July 26, 2020, 02:31:28 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 26, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
Currently Australia has reported 155 COVID-19 deaths.  But the country has only reported 36 flu related deaths this year compared to 430 during the same period last year (or 394 fewer flu deaths).  So while the coronavirus has cost 155 Australian lives, it may have saved 394 lives due to the social distancing and mask wearing measures taken to fight the coronavirus.  It can be argued that during this worldwide pandemic that lives have been saved in Australia.

Flu deaths drop in Australia as coronavirus restrictions save hundreds of lives
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restrictions-cause-flu-cases-to-drop-australia/12480190
On a similar note, number of deaths from 8nfections in Asia dropped for a few years after SARS: people were washing hand religiously... I wonder if any effect would be observed in US after all this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: tradephoric on July 26, 2020, 04:30:12 PM
New York State has seen a 99% reduction in daily deaths going from reporting 1,000 daily deaths in April to under 10 daily deaths today.  Looking at citywide data, NYCs massive drop in deaths is similar to the massive drop in death Philadelphia experienced during the 1918 pandemic.  Luckily Philadelphia didn't see a second wave and hopefully NYC will track their curve. 

(https://miro.medium.com/max/2436/1*vOGO6p2dWhrBxGw6iJGEqg.jpeg)

This is a great chart looking at the curves of various US cities during the Spanish Flu and how social distancing measures affected the death rates.  I'd argue 2020 LA is comparable to 1918 LA - where the city has a flatter curve (compared to 2020 NYC or 1918 Philly) but the multiple lock-downs extend the curve out for a longer duration.   It's interesting to look at how Kansas City had extended lock down measures but still had a higher death rate than Baltimore (which had a similar curve to Philly).  However, the case studies always focus on the comparison of Philadelphia to St. Louis when demonstrating the importance of lock-downs.  It appears California is leaning towards locking down for the remainder of 2020 while NYC can largely move on from this pandemic (just like Philly did back in 1918).
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: hbelkins on July 26, 2020, 04:33:34 PM
Shhh. Officially verified by a state health agency:

https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washington/washington-health-officials-gunshot-victims-counted-as-covid-19-deaths/ (https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washington/washington-health-officials-gunshot-victims-counted-as-covid-19-deaths/)

https://mynorthwest.com/1889564/rantz-gun-shot-victims-washington-coronavirus-deaths/? (https://mynorthwest.com/1889564/rantz-gun-shot-victims-washington-coronavirus-deaths/?)

And this was back in the spring, before other incidents came to light.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NE2 on July 26, 2020, 04:44:01 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 26, 2020, 04:33:34 PM
freedomfoundation
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fexternal-preview.redd.it%2FpfgiVAhWSTpj0IEijor0f_x6E-XEhlWT8C5O-tvuF_Y.png%3Fwidth%3D480%26amp%3Bauto%3Dwebp%26amp%3Bs%3D6b38eebb510b96b56ac26e9053fd087191cdcd16&hash=5a0c70d11b83553489c58e2181fe32a48db69966)
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 26, 2020, 04:45:27 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 26, 2020, 04:33:34 PM
Shhh. Officially verified by a state health agency:

https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washington/washington-health-officials-gunshot-victims-counted-as-covid-19-deaths/ (https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washington/washington-health-officials-gunshot-victims-counted-as-covid-19-deaths/)

https://mynorthwest.com/1889564/rantz-gun-shot-victims-washington-coronavirus-deaths/? (https://mynorthwest.com/1889564/rantz-gun-shot-victims-washington-coronavirus-deaths/?)

And this was back in the spring, before other incidents came to light.

People who know very little about the medical field and get all of their news from politically-biased sites would be likely to see this as some sort of government conspiracy. The reality is that even gunshot victims, underlying health conditions can impact whether the victims survives or dies. Breathing problems caused by COVID-19, even if not severe enough to cause death on their own, could very easily make it harder to survive a trauma like a gunshot wound, so it definitely can be a contributing factor.

A state deciding to unilaterally count every single death of a COVID-positive person as a COVID-related death instead of relying on the individual coroners sounds like an overreach, but when you're talking about handful of deaths out of 150K nationally, it's not going to bias the numbers enough to impact anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 26, 2020, 05:35:30 PM
Quote from: kalvado on July 25, 2020, 07:51:31 PM
On a more serious note - there will be some census estimates, public records estimates etc.
Actually there are pretty good estimates of the number of excess deaths. I posted NYC numbers before, someone had US totals. Looks like number of excess deaths exceeds number of COVID reported deaths by a factor of 1.5-2.
And it is impossible to argue with having those excess numbers - footage of refrigeration trailers and mass graves in NYC is out there.
Yes, there are errors reported both ways. These days autopsy is out of favor with families, and doctors certainly have better things to do. Finding a couple of mistakes (or couple hundred of mistakes) proves pretty much nothing.

I would love to see a basic comparison of
1) Reported US COVID death totals
2) Total number of US deaths to date in 2020 - Avg number of US deaths to date for the previous 5 years

Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on July 26, 2020, 05:41:05 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on July 24, 2020, 11:58:52 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on July 24, 2020, 11:24:38 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on July 24, 2020, 11:24:10 AM
Quote from: kphoger on July 24, 2020, 11:21:22 AM
What BS?  The virus?  The preventive measures?  The political hype?

All of it.

Sweden has done a very good job at dealing with the virus. Look at these graphs:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden
America is not Sweden.

Michigan is Sweden:

-Michigan and Sweden have nearly identical populations. 
-Michigan and Sweden have similar covid deaths (6,395 in Michigan vs. 5,676 deaths in Sweden).
-Michigan and Sweden both saw recent upticks in daily cases without a corresponding increase in deaths.
-Michigan and Sweden were both hit hard by the virus in the Spring. 
-Michigan and Sweden have similar looking daily death curves.

(https://i.imgur.com/bv8XC4Ol.png)



The major difference between Michigan and Sweden is population density.  Michigan's population density is far higher than Sweden's, so everything else being equal, Michigan's death rate should be much higher. It isn't, which suggests that Sweden's approach (no total lockdown, not even for a couple weeks) may not have been the best one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: SEWIGuy on July 26, 2020, 05:45:21 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 25, 2020, 07:03:23 PM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on July 24, 2020, 07:08:33 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on July 24, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article244429392.html#storylink=sectionheadlines

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county?fbclid=IwAR3qMOusmGuhNDr1KcXYqs_FMayemQHABKWgW3WvbZO-8nEKaZPHYqK2dKY

See why so many are rightfully skeptical of what's being fed to us?

http://kentuckyvalleyviews.blogspot.com/2020/07/reasons-for-healthy-skepticism.html

Sigh

Already showed why this was bogus and how COVID deaths are actually being undercounted.

But yeah. Keep clinging to the info you want.

You get factual examples of deaths being misreported, and you still keep clinging to the info YOU want.



Sigh.

I'm not pretending that a couple of one-off stories equals a trend.  Logic failure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus pandemic
Post by: Alps on July 26, 2020, 07:01:47 PM
This is just going down an unending rabbit hole. Locked for now.