Coronavirus pandemic

[jakeroot]

I can't remember the last time I needed a shopping cart at a regular grocery store.  Usually all I ever go for is; something my wife wants, a 32oz Poweraid I need for a long run, or fried chicken from the deli.  The grocery store isn't so bad compared to the horrors I've seen inflicted upon shopping carts at places like Walmart and Target.

I've definitely been to those stores when I was out; my local store tends to get expensive because of the property values and that they do have a parking lot (fairly expensive to own in a dense area). But day to day, it's easier for me to just pop over to the store (literally a six minute walk), grab a couple things, and then walk out. Luckily, most people in the area operate the same way, so there hasn't been a hoarding mentality like at Walmart or Target (where everyone is in such a rush, they forget basic sanitary rules like wiping cart handles!), which has made it so they have only been out of TP (lol) and for like one afternoon, hot dog buns. Everything is back to normal now, apart from TP still being gone by noon.

Now, credit where credit's due: those who went to the big-box stores and started hoarding likely haven't been back to those stores in a while, whereas I've continued to go every other day. But apart from being near other people, I've tried to take reasonable precautionary measures (as mentioned before) so that I don't have to stock up...not that I have room in my tiny apartment-sized refrigerator to stock up anyways.

Just in case anyone needs to know how much TP they really have: https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

I was at something like 1,100%.  We are still going through wedding supplies from last year and that was one of them. 

Wait...what?!?!  "Honey, what are we going to give the Rockatanskys for a wedding present?"  "Hmmm...how about a couple of those 48-packs of toilet paper from Costco?  That would be perfect!"   

Side note: "Rockatansky" would be a great surname (if only George Miller hadn't thought of it first!)

[jakeroot]

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

He should proceed very carefully because if this pandemic explodes in the United States, it could be rebranded the TrumpVirus.

Particularly if A) the economy completely collapses, B) he forces the country back open (to avoid economic collapse) and infection/death rates skyrocket, or C) both/either of those things combined with him not getting re-elected (not a great legacy; the electorate does not forget poor executive leadership -- recall James Buchanan).

[kwellada]

recall James Buchanan).

well, I dunno about you, but he was a tad before my time 

[kalvado]

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

A naming convention is just that - naming convention. History knows examples when higher-ups deviation from those conventions ended up official. SR-71 comes to mind.
It is about intention of such naming, which is questionable

[US71]

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

A naming convention is just that - naming convention. History knows examples when higher-ups deviation from those conventions ended up official. SR-71 comes to mind.
It is about intention of such naming, which is questionable

A "naming convention" , like the N word? Or calling someone "Retard" ?

[jakeroot]

recall James Buchanan).

well, I dunno about you, but he was a tad before my time 

Yeah, I guess. Point being that history remembers the morons. Although they can sometimes be overshadowed by relative gods (Abe Lincoln in Buchanan's case).

[oscar]

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

Or he's paying attention to, and trying to counter, the China government's efforts to blame us for the virus that seems to have started there.

But another thing wrong with "Chinese virus" -- what if another deadly virus later comes out of China? What do we call that one, to avoid confusion with the current virus?

[kalvado]

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

Or he's paying attention to, and trying to counter, the China government's efforts to blame us for the virus that seems to have started there.

But another thing wrong with "Chinese virus" -- what if another deadly virus later comes out of China? What do we call that one, to avoid confusion with the current virus?

I suspect that if "wuhan virus" stuck from the beginning, nobody would really object. But by now, things are already settled - and accepted wording is  NOT "chinese" or "wuhan"

[nexus73]

From Taiwannews.com.tw:

A National Taiwan University (NTU) professor on Saturday (Feb. 22) said the virus is likely man-made, based on its unusual structure. At a seminar on the coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab).

At a seminar on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab). He said that what is known is that there are many deadly viruses being researched in the facility, such as SARS and Ebola, and that China's track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.

Fang said that COVID-19 is 96 percent similar to the bat virus RaTG13, which is known to be housed at the lab. Fang said that this in itself is not a smoking gun, as a genetic similarity of 99 percent would be required to declare them to be the same.

He said that a French team investigating COVID-19 had found that the key difference between RaTG13 and COVID-19 was that the latter has four additional amino acids not found in any other coronaviruses. Fang said that these four amino acids make the disease easier to transmit.

Fang said that the French team's findings had led some in the scientific community to speculate that Chinese scientists thought the SARS outbreak 17 years ago was too easy to deal with, so they developed an "upgraded version."  He said that with modern technology, such an "upgrade"  is theoretically possible.

The professor said that viruses normally only have small mutations in the form of singular changes in natural conditions. He asserted that in nature, it is "unlikely to have four amino acids added at once."

Fang concluded, "Therefore, from an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans."  He said that it is also still possible that this occurred in nature but that "the chances are very slim."

Fang stressed that the mutations found in the novel coronavirus are "unusual in an academic sense."  He asserted that "It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product."

He said that it would be critical to conduct an internal investigation of the records at BSL-4 Lab. However, given the opaque nature of the current regime in Beijing, he said such a public inquest into the lab's records looks highly unlikely in the near future.

On the positive side, Fang said that if it is an artificially generated virus, it means it does not occur naturally in the ecosystem. Therefore, after the last patient is cured, it should not become a seasonal illness such as the flu, which is generated naturally in the environment.

However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Feb. 1 refuted a similar theory being circulated that it was "bioweapon"  created by the U.S., saying the addition of the aforementioned four amino acids is not as "critical"  as some in the Chinese media had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.

He also noted that the four insertions in the spike glycoproteins that Indian authors described as unique to COVID-19 are not unusual in the results for pBLAST (an algorithm for comparing primary biological sequence information).

Rick

[kalvado]

From Taiwannews.com.tw:

A National Taiwan University (NTU) professor on Saturday (Feb. 22) said the virus is likely man-made, based on its unusual structure. At a seminar on the coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab).

At a seminar on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab). He said that what is known is that there are many deadly viruses being researched in the facility, such as SARS and Ebola, and that China's track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.

Fang said that COVID-19 is 96 percent similar to the bat virus RaTG13, which is known to be housed at the lab. Fang said that this in itself is not a smoking gun, as a genetic similarity of 99 percent would be required to declare them to be the same.

He said that a French team investigating COVID-19 had found that the key difference between RaTG13 and COVID-19 was that the latter has four additional amino acids not found in any other coronaviruses. Fang said that these four amino acids make the disease easier to transmit.

Fang said that the French team's findings had led some in the scientific community to speculate that Chinese scientists thought the SARS outbreak 17 years ago was too easy to deal with, so they developed an "upgraded version."  He said that with modern technology, such an "upgrade"  is theoretically possible.

The professor said that viruses normally only have small mutations in the form of singular changes in natural conditions. He asserted that in nature, it is "unlikely to have four amino acids added at once."

Fang concluded, "Therefore, from an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans."  He said that it is also still possible that this occurred in nature but that "the chances are very slim."

Fang stressed that the mutations found in the novel coronavirus are "unusual in an academic sense."  He asserted that "It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product."

He said that it would be critical to conduct an internal investigation of the records at BSL-4 Lab. However, given the opaque nature of the current regime in Beijing, he said such a public inquest into the lab's records looks highly unlikely in the near future.

On the positive side, Fang said that if it is an artificially generated virus, it means it does not occur naturally in the ecosystem. Therefore, after the last patient is cured, it should not become a seasonal illness such as the flu, which is generated naturally in the environment.

However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Feb. 1 refuted a similar theory being circulated that it was "bioweapon"  created by the U.S., saying the addition of the aforementioned four amino acids is not as "critical"  as some in the Chinese media had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.

He also noted that the four insertions in the spike glycoproteins that Indian authors described as unique to COVID-19 are not unusual in the results for pBLAST (an algorithm for comparing primary biological sequence information).

Rick

The bare minumum for such a claim would be a link to a presentation and/or paper describing "unusual structure"
Without that, Dr. Fang just reduced the life expectancy of Taiwan as a standalone entity by a little bit.

[Bruce]

We shouldn't repost articles without full attribution and vetting. This one is a month old, has only been re-transmitted once by a non-Taiwanese source (to the Independent, who have loose editorial guidelines), and has not been followed up. I think it's safe to say that his theory is not accepted among experts in the field.

[LM117]

NC Gov. Roy Cooper has asked Trump for a major disaster declaration for the state.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19

[1995hoo]

[vdeane]

I've definitely been to those stores when I was out; my local store tends to get expensive because of the property values and that they do have a parking lot (fairly expensive to own in a dense area). But day to day, it's easier for me to just pop over to the store (literally a six minute walk), grab a couple things, and then walk out. Luckily, most people in the area operate the same way, so there hasn't been a hoarding mentality like at Walmart or Target (where everyone is in such a rush, they forget basic sanitary rules like wiping cart handles!), which has made it so they have only been out of TP (lol) and for like one afternoon, hot dog buns. Everything is back to normal now, apart from TP still being gone by noon.

I wish things were back to normal here.  I'd like to think they're getting better, though; I was able to get my grocery shopping done at "only" two stores and in "only" an hour tonight, albeit with some compromises on what I buy (down from 2 hours at 4-5 stores for the previous two weeks, though).  I think this is also the first time I managed to get soup and frozen corn at Hannaford since the panic buying began (and the bread aisle looked more full and the parking lot more empty than usual for our new normal).

[ErmineNotyours]

The antithesis of a square meal a day?

[Max Rockatansky]

Can you spare a square?

[jakeroot]

I've definitely been to those stores when I was out; my local store tends to get expensive because of the property values and that they do have a parking lot (fairly expensive to own in a dense area). But day to day, it's easier for me to just pop over to the store (literally a six minute walk), grab a couple things, and then walk out. Luckily, most people in the area operate the same way, so there hasn't been a hoarding mentality like at Walmart or Target (where everyone is in such a rush, they forget basic sanitary rules like wiping cart handles!), which has made it so they have only been out of TP (lol) and for like one afternoon, hot dog buns. Everything is back to normal now, apart from TP still being gone by noon.

I wish things were back to normal here.  I'd like to think they're getting better, though; I was able to get my grocery shopping done at "only" two stores and in "only" an hour tonight, albeit with some compromises on what I buy (down from 2 hours at 4-5 stores for the previous two weeks, though).  I think this is also the first time I managed to get soup and frozen corn at Hannaford since the panic buying began (and the bread aisle looked more full and the parking lot more empty than usual for our new normal).

I've been hearing stories like that. Once it became apparent on my recent visit that hot dog buns were gone, I was faced with two options: fish out another store that might have them (unlikely since panic buying was become a serious problem for a couple days), or accept eating hot dogs without the buns. Needless to say, the latter was far more attractive. Especially as my car keys were in my apartment and I didn't feel like walking back up there, just so I could find another store that would likely be out of buns as well).

Now that WA is a "stay home" state, the streets have gotten significantly quieter, but the grocery stores seem a tad busier as some restaurants choose to close.

[US71]

NC governor has asked Trump for a major disaster declaration for the state.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-requests-major-disaster-declaration-covid-19

Do they have any casinos?  </sarc>

[bugo]

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.

I have both Mexican and Chinese guitars, and they are all excellent. The days when American guitars were a lot better than guitars that are made elsewhere are over.

U304AA

No Paul Reed Smith guitars (imported from Stevensville, Maryland) available in Oklahoma?

https://www.prsguitars.com/

https://www.prsguitars.com/about/

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Paul+Reed+Smith+Guitars/@38.9884762,-76.3140652,732m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x89b81b1fc65d283f:0x7752e14804a0b264!8m2!3d38.9881997!4d-76.3149753

ixnay

PRS guitars are available here, but they are quite expensive. The US-built ones are even more expensive. I have never paid more than $500 on a guitar.

[nexus73]

From Taiwannews.com.tw:

A National Taiwan University (NTU) professor on Saturday (Feb. 22) said the virus is likely man-made, based on its unusual structure. At a seminar on the coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab).

At a seminar on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hosted by the Taiwan Public Health Association at NTU, Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰), a professor at NTU's College of Public Health, addressed the many theories circulating that the virus somehow leaked from or was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology biosafety level 4 laboratory (BSL-4 Lab). He said that what is known is that there are many deadly viruses being researched in the facility, such as SARS and Ebola, and that China's track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.

Fang said that COVID-19 is 96 percent similar to the bat virus RaTG13, which is known to be housed at the lab. Fang said that this in itself is not a smoking gun, as a genetic similarity of 99 percent would be required to declare them to be the same.

He said that a French team investigating COVID-19 had found that the key difference between RaTG13 and COVID-19 was that the latter has four additional amino acids not found in any other coronaviruses. Fang said that these four amino acids make the disease easier to transmit.

Fang said that the French team's findings had led some in the scientific community to speculate that Chinese scientists thought the SARS outbreak 17 years ago was too easy to deal with, so they developed an "upgraded version."  He said that with modern technology, such an "upgrade"  is theoretically possible.

The professor said that viruses normally only have small mutations in the form of singular changes in natural conditions. He asserted that in nature, it is "unlikely to have four amino acids added at once."

Fang concluded, "Therefore, from an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans."  He said that it is also still possible that this occurred in nature but that "the chances are very slim."

Fang stressed that the mutations found in the novel coronavirus are "unusual in an academic sense."  He asserted that "It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product."

He said that it would be critical to conduct an internal investigation of the records at BSL-4 Lab. However, given the opaque nature of the current regime in Beijing, he said such a public inquest into the lab's records looks highly unlikely in the near future.

On the positive side, Fang said that if it is an artificially generated virus, it means it does not occur naturally in the ecosystem. Therefore, after the last patient is cured, it should not become a seasonal illness such as the flu, which is generated naturally in the environment.

However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Feb. 1 refuted a similar theory being circulated that it was "bioweapon"  created by the U.S., saying the addition of the aforementioned four amino acids is not as "critical"  as some in the Chinese media had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.

He also noted that the four insertions in the spike glycoproteins that Indian authors described as unique to COVID-19 are not unusual in the results for pBLAST (an algorithm for comparing primary biological sequence information).

Rick

The bare minumum for such a claim would be a link to a presentation and/or paper describing "unusual structure"
Without that, Dr. Fang just reduced the life expectancy of Taiwan as a standalone entity by a little bit.

Just for the sake of argument, let's say the biolab in Wuhan was working on a WMD.  They got the highly contagious part right.  What was missing is a much deadlier payload  If that part of the deal had been done, we would be looking at "The Stand" taking place for real!

Also consider what the reaction would be if the PRC truly did the deed.  There would be something truly severe taking place in retaliation.   

Now as to how valid of a claim the Taiwanese scientist made, let's look at who he is accusing.  The People's Republic of China is a known bad actor.  If you or anyone else here wants to put their faith in the PRC's good will and pure intentions, be my guest!

The PRC is to us what the German Empire was to the British Empire prior to the Great War.  That's a "great power struggle" comparison.  There is always someone looking to dethrone the top dog!  One can then add in a similar perfidy and willingness to push a la Imperial Japan prior to their attack on Pearl Harbor. 

Better keep a close eye on China. 

Rick

[J N Winkler]

The daily death toll from the virus in the US has been 100 or greater for three days running.  Although we are locking down, I do not expect to see it back under 100 for at least two months, maybe three.

[kalvado]

The daily death toll from the virus in the US has been 100 or greater for three days running.  Although we are locking down, I do not expect to see it back under 100 for at least two months, maybe three.

And that is 1% increase over the normal average. Probably at least somewhat offset by decrease in road deaths, which are normally about 100 daily as well . 

[1995hoo]

Push alert from the BBC this morning says HRH the Prince of Wales tested positive and has mild symptoms. He's gone into self-quarantine somewhere in Scotland.

[bing101]

After the outbreak of MERS in 2012, the WHO determined that using geography-based names for worldwide diseases caused negative reactions (if not outright racism), so they barred it from being used officially. COVID-19 is the first major disease to come under these new guidelines.

The "Spanish flu" is misnamed and outdated in use, and should be referred to as the 1918 outbreak instead. Retroactively renaming things is fine for other fields, so why not disease?

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

I know some microbiology books have renamed 1918 Spanish Flu to 1918 Influenza Pandemic in recent years though.


https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-ohio-dewine-says-virus-peak-could-be-roughly-around-may-1/


Now there is Speculation that COVID-19 might peak in the USA between April and May. Note this is just preliminary investigation as states have issued Stay at home orders.


Also there are deaths by Chloroquine overdoses as there have been claims that Chloroquine is a cure of COVID-19. But by the time I looked I heard stuff that Chloroquine is just named as a candidate for clinical testing along with various COVID-19 vaccine candidates for clinical testing.


https://www.wistv.com/2020/03/24/arizona-death-prompts-warning-against-using-chloroquine-phosphate-treatment-coronavirus/




https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/nigeria-has-chloroquine-poisonings-after-trump-praised-drug/ar-BB11wxMQ


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/tracking-development-coronavirus-treatments-n1166691




https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/03/25/covid-19-coronavirus-drug-vir-biotechnology.html

[kalvado]

After the outbreak of MERS in 2012, the WHO determined that using geography-based names for worldwide diseases caused negative reactions (if not outright racism), so they barred it from being used officially. COVID-19 is the first major disease to come under these new guidelines.

The "Spanish flu" is misnamed and outdated in use, and should be referred to as the 1918 outbreak instead. Retroactively renaming things is fine for other fields, so why not disease?

Trump ignoring it (to the point of scratching it out on in his notes in front of cameras) is just another part of his blatant disregard for science that got us so deep into this mess.

I know some microbiology books have renamed 1918 Spanish Flu to 1918 Influenza Pandemic in recent years though.

My problem with such a change - maybe personal one  is that numbers stapled to events tend to mix up in my head.
Was it nineteen eighteen pandemic or eighteen ninety pandemic? And since there may be a complex link between the two...
Somewhat similar problem with hurricanes is solved by naming - Katrina or Sandy rings the bell quite well, as well as Labor Day hurricane.