Coronavirus pandemic

[bandit957]

Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?

I know there was a really bad one in New Mexico. There was also a really bad one in Ohio back around 1993.

[CoreySamson]

You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.

Duh, because the latter is based on the former!

No. There are some very interesting cross-checks.

I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.

[sprjus4]

I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.

They aren't report the true number of cases, it's quite simple.

[SSOWorld]

I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.

They aren't report the true number of cases, it's quite simple.

{{citation-needed}}

[vdeane]

I remember saying that infection chains reaching from China to us through countries that waited longer to restrict travel would be our downfall.  Looks like I was right.  The NY cases came from Europe.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/health/new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-europe-origin/index.html

[CoreySamson]

I personally can't trust the figures out of China right now. Wasn't there a news story recently stating that the morgues in Wuhan were running full blast? That sounds like more than the amount of deaths China is reporting.

Besides, how did COVID-19 not affect more people in Beijing and Shanghai than it did? Shanghai has more people than NYC.

Either China's not reporting the true number of cases, or they know something about containing COVID-19 that we don't, in my opinion.

They aren't report the true number of cases, it's quite simple.

{{citation-needed}}

Here's one article backing up my point:
https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/evidence-from-wuhans-morgues-crematoriums-suggests-covid-19-deaths-20-times-higher-than-official-count

[Duke87]

I remember saying that infection chains reaching from China to us through countries that waited longer to restrict travel would be our downfall.  Looks like I was right.  The NY cases came from Europe.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/health/new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-europe-origin/index.html

So basically we set up a Maginot line against the virus.

[noelbotevera]

Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.

Pennsylvania joined the pack today. The only work I have to do is a simple project and a condensed version of the AP tests.

Thus officially begins my 5 month summer vacation.

[ftballfan]

Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.

Pennsylvania joined the pack today. The only work I have to do is a simple project and a condensed version of the AP tests.

Thus officially begins my 5 month summer vacation.

As of today, these states have cancelled in-person instruction for the rest of the school year:
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state
I expect to see most if not all other states follow suit in the next week or two.

[NWI_Irish96]

Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.

Pennsylvania joined the pack today. The only work I have to do is a simple project and a condensed version of the AP tests.

Thus officially begins my 5 month summer vacation.

As of today, these states have cancelled in-person instruction for the rest of the school year:
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state
I expect to see most if not all other states follow suit in the next week or two.

I have two kids.  One who is up by 8am and has her school work done by noon, the other who I rarely see before 9:30am and doesn't start his school work until 3pm.  When schools starts up in August (hopefully), that 6:45 alarm is going to be rough the first few days.

[jakeroot]

Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?

I know there was a really bad one in New Mexico. There was also a really bad one in Ohio back around 1993.

Doesn't look like anyone was hurt in the Monroe Riot. I guess that's good, and will keep it off the history books (largely).

[J N Winkler]

Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.

[sprjus4]

Report from the HRTPO (Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization) detailing the impact of COVID-19 on the Hampton Roads region as far as transportation, traffic volume decreases, transit ridership decreases, etc.

https://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/COVID-19%20Transportation_v3.pdf

[hbelkins]

Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.

The NYC mass grave is temporary. I guess continuing to provide refrigerated trucks for storage was no longer feasible?

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. The other day, he reported something like 1,349 total cases and 336 people recovered. So what should have been reported, in my opinion, was 1,013 current active cases. The map he releases every day still shows counties with cases where everyone who was reported as testing positive has made a full recovery. My personal opinion is that he is manipulating the figures to continue to justify his heavy-handed shutdown of businesses and unconstitutional restrictions on religious services and the freedom of assembly. When asked, they will provide figures on hospitalizations (about a quarter or less of those who test positive) and ICU utilization (about a quarter or less of those who are hospitalized due to the virus.)

Also, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus. A truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.

[kalvado]

Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.

The NYC mass grave is temporary. I guess continuing to provide refrigerated trucks for storage was no longer feasible?

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. The other day, he reported something like 1,349 total cases and 336 people recovered. So what should have been reported, in my opinion, was 1,013 current active cases. The map he releases every day still shows counties with cases where everyone who was reported as testing positive has made a full recovery. My personal opinion is that he is manipulating the figures to continue to justify his heavy-handed shutdown of businesses and unconstitutional restrictions on religious services and the freedom of assembly. When asked, they will provide figures on hospitalizations (about a quarter or less of those who test positive) and ICU utilization (about a quarter or less of those who are hospitalized due to the virus.)

Also, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus. A truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.

Not sure if  opening up this "temporary" thing would be a good idea. For one, what's the point of moving sealed coffin with pretty decomposed stuff inside?
Daily cases is the best number - they show what is going on. And deaths from unrelated cases - it is known that virus kills via complications of other problems. If not infected, people could live  long enough. So is it virus or unrelated? Overall, NYC death rate is about 3-4x normal rate at this point, and I suspect there is a singular reason for that.

[GaryV]

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. ...

I work for a health insurer that is owned by a hospital system in Detroit.  The hospital reports the number of patients discharged and number deceased.  But they sent out this message on how "recovered" is defined:

During this response, MDHHS is reviewing vital records statistics to identify any laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases who are 30 days out from their onset of illness to represent recovery status. As the pandemic continues to impact Michigan, this pool will expand to include more cases. Recovered is defined as the number of persons with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis who are alive 30 days post-onset (or referral date if onset is not available).  The number of persons recovered on April 3rd, 2020 represents COVID-19 confirmed individuals with an onset date on or prior to March 4th, 2020. These numbers will be updated every Saturday.

Since this is such a fast-moving epidemic, most cases have been reported in the last 30 days, and so most cases can't be considered recovered yet, even if they are at home and exhibiting no symptoms.

[Max Rockatansky]

Upthread, I predicted that no First World country would be obliged to resort to mass graves for coronavirus victims.  This morning, I woke up to a story in the paper announcing 16.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment that was illustrated with a photo of coffins being placed into a trench in Hart Island.

The NYC mass grave is temporary. I guess continuing to provide refrigerated trucks for storage was no longer feasible?

There's lots that I've found to be disingenuous about this whole thing. Kentucky, for example, continues to report  total cases instead of active cases. The governor has started reporting the number of people who have recovered (including, notably, Sen. Rand Paul) but I guess reporting the total number of cases is scarier and more alarming. The other day, he reported something like 1,349 total cases and 336 people recovered. So what should have been reported, in my opinion, was 1,013 current active cases. The map he releases every day still shows counties with cases where everyone who was reported as testing positive has made a full recovery. My personal opinion is that he is manipulating the figures to continue to justify his heavy-handed shutdown of businesses and unconstitutional restrictions on religious services and the freedom of assembly. When asked, they will provide figures on hospitalizations (about a quarter or less of those who test positive) and ICU utilization (about a quarter or less of those who are hospitalized due to the virus.)

Also, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus. A truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.

Not sure if  opening up this "temporary" thing would be a good idea. For one, what's the point of moving sealed coffin with pretty decomposed stuff inside?
Daily cases is the best number - they show what is going on. And deaths from unrelated cases - it is known that virus kills via complications of other problems. If not infected, people could live  long enough. So is it virus or unrelated? Overall, NYC death rate is about 3-4x normal rate at this point, and I suspect there is a singular reason for that.

Has COVID-19 been really conclusively shown to bring on things like heart problems?  If someone had a severe "underlying condition" and it ended up being brought to a head by an infection like COVID-19...is it still not more attributable to that underlying condition over the virus?  It does seem misleading to pinpoint the cause of death solely to a viral infection in cases where there was clearly a severe medical problem that was waiting on the straw to break the camel's back.  To that end, is there any clear data out there showing the percentage of deaths in individuals with serious known existing health problems versus those who don't? 

[formulanone]

Also, reporting the virus as the cause of death for everyone who tests positive is very misleading. Heart attack but a positive test? You died of the virus. Car wreck? The virus got you. Overdose? Shouldn't have been mainlining that virus.

I think it more than balances out with the number of people who probably weren't diagnosed with it and died from it. While there might be a tiny handful overzealous diagnoses, there's possibly many more that weren't counted or just unknown.

At this time, it is a bit tougher to figure out how many people have recovered from it, without knowing how many people were affected in an enough of a manner as to be noticeable. Admittedly, it doesn't make the same sort of news, though we seem to know that many people can recover from it.

A truer count of the virus' casualties would be those who are committing suicide because they are out of work due to the overreaching government-ordered closures.

Won't someone please think of the Benjamins? You do realize our Framers (nor much of anyone else) had no ideas about disease being a truly microscopic problem that would not be easily contained; they would have sooner chalked up such ills as "bad bile", "poor temperment", "fault in the cosmos", or some such ignorance 200 years ago?

Yeah, it sucks to be lonely right now and probably worse to be out of work when there's limited assistance, but economy is looking for retail jobs all over the few places I've been.

[bandit957]

Won't someone please think of the Benjamins? You do realize our Framers (nor much of anyone else) had no ideas about disease being a truly microscopic problem that would not be easily contained; they would have sooner chalked up such ills as "bad bile", "poor temperment", "fault in the cosmos", or some such ignorance 200 years ago?

There were pandemics all the time 200 years ago. I thought I read that Congress wouldn't meet in Philadelphia (back when it was the capital) because there was a yellow fever epidemic there.

[Max Rockatansky]

Won't someone please think of the Benjamins? You do realize our Framers (nor much of anyone else) had no ideas about disease being a truly microscopic problem that would not be easily contained; they would have sooner chalked up such ills as "bad bile", "poor temperment", "fault in the cosmos", or some such ignorance 200 years ago?

There were pandemics all the time 200 years ago. I thought I read that Congress wouldn't meet in Philadelphia (back when it was the capital) because there was a yellow fever epidemic there.

Pandemics back then were infinitely worse and far more varied back in the 18th Century.  Public figures certainly would have been well versed in some of the more significant diseases in history.  Back then you pretty had a pretty good chance of dying from diseases that are easily treatable now. 

[kalvado]

Has COVID-19 been really conclusively shown to bring on things like heart problems?  If someone had a severe "underlying condition" and it ended up being brought to a head by an infection like COVID-19...is it still not more attributable to that underlying condition over the virus?  It does seem misleading to pinpoint the cause of death solely to a viral infection in cases where there was clearly a severe medical problem that was waiting on the straw to break the camel's back.  To that end, is there any clear data out there showing the percentage of deaths in individuals with serious known existing health problems versus those who don't?

Well, the worsening of heart problems is obvious for me. You see, what this virus does it affects lungs - so oxygen absorption. Once the body doesn't get enough oxygen, rationing via blood vessels shrinkage and expansion starts (body's objective is to keep the brain alive at any cost). Heart is a very hard-working muscle, needs a lot of O2, and prone to problems with lack of transport.

What you're trying to say, as far as I understand,  is that average virus death means loss of fewer years of life than some non-discriminate issue, like a huge meteor hitting a town, where you can reasonably say that ~40 years of life is lost on average, averaging grandpa and grandkids.
Usually, such accounting is not really done as individual life expectancy is hard to predict, and too many ethical and legal problems would arise. Although, it is being done for expensive health procedures where cost-efficiency of spending finite funds starts to matter (death panels, huh?)
FOr the sake of argument, though - yes, many virus deaths are in 70+ range, and that means 15 or fewer years of life on average are lost per death. But continuing this discussion brings some really uncomfortable questions...

[Hot Rod Hootenanny]

Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?

I know there was a really bad one in New Mexico. There was also a really bad one in Ohio back around 1993.

You are thinking of the 1993 Lucasville Prision riot (which started 27 years ago tomorrow)
https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/things-remember-about-the-lucasville-prison-riot-years-later/OOZzf7iPcYnlEKF0wZ8mAM/

Meanwhile, there was a prision riot in Kansas yesterday.
https://www.kmbc.com/article/ks-corrections-department-investigating-lansing-prison-riot/32111654

[Hot Rod Hootenanny]

So while Ohio has been getting good grades for how we're handling the Coronavirus pandemic, some folks begged to differ.


The cartoon was based on this incident that occurred Thursday afternoon:
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/04/09/coronavirus-ohio-gov-dewine-updates-ohioans-covid-19-response/5121814002/
https://radio.wosu.org/post/coronavirus-ohio-protesters-gather-outside-statehouse-criticize-shutdowns?fbclid=IwAR0DE_zVJMZUC3LTevc11_QayHZ60m5Szi1MqTa4hMOml1MZv2_bQx275W4#stream/0
Strangely, when asked by "mainstream media outlets" whose idea it was to organize this protest, no one wanted to divulge any names.

[Max Rockatansky]

Has COVID-19 been really conclusively shown to bring on things like heart problems?  If someone had a severe "underlying condition" and it ended up being brought to a head by an infection like COVID-19...is it still not more attributable to that underlying condition over the virus?  It does seem misleading to pinpoint the cause of death solely to a viral infection in cases where there was clearly a severe medical problem that was waiting on the straw to break the camel's back.  To that end, is there any clear data out there showing the percentage of deaths in individuals with serious known existing health problems versus those who don't?

Well, the worsening of heart problems is obvious for me. You see, what this virus does it affects lungs - so oxygen absorption. Once the body doesn't get enough oxygen, rationing via blood vessels shrinkage and expansion starts (body's objective is to keep the brain alive at any cost). Heart is a very hard-working muscle, needs a lot of O2, and prone to problems with lack of transport.

What you're trying to say, as far as I understand,  is that average virus death means loss of fewer years of life than some non-discriminate issue, like a huge meteor hitting a town, where you can reasonably say that ~40 years of life is lost on average, averaging grandpa and grandkids.
Usually, such accounting is not really done as individual life expectancy is hard to predict, and too many ethical and legal problems would arise. Although, it is being done for expensive health procedures where cost-efficiency of spending finite funds starts to matter (death panels, huh?)
FOr the sake of argument, though - yes, many virus deaths are in 70+ range, and that means 15 or fewer years of life on average are lost per death. But continuing this discussion brings some really uncomfortable questions...

If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence. 

[US71]

If anything something that could be parlayed in public messages is promoting living a healthy lifestyle as a way of being able to fight off disease.  I don't any data to back this up but it sure seems that a good percentage of younger people who (under 50) who are getting the worst symptoms (and end up in news stories) aren't exactly the bastions of healthy living.  Considering how many professional athletes who were diagnosed had mild symptoms no symptoms at all probably isn't a coincidence. 

So far, all I've had is the headcold from Hell, but I'm staying in rather than taking any chances.