Coronavirus pandemic

[J N Winkler]

I've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

*  World War II was more fiscally disruptive (defense spending reached about 40% of GDP in 1944).

*  The Great Depression led to a higher percentage of unemployment, for a longer period, with no safety net (no unemployment insurance or Social Security at the beginning).

*  The 1918 influenza pandemic killed many more (both absolutely and as a percentage of the US population), though it itself was not as lethal as the Black Death.

[kalvado]

A month of lockdown for most of the world may be fairly unprecedented, though.

[Max Rockatansky]

A month of lockdown for most of the world may be fairly unprecedented, though.

As opposed to years of it during WWII?  At least locally in the U.S. there was certainly travel and liberty restrictions.  Not to mention how much non-essential businesses were shuttered and never came back.  Example; World War II essentially killed off the pre-War Gold Mining industry.  I would imagine that similar stories can be found in every country that was in that war or closely affected by it. 

[webny99]

I've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?

I was a fan of the word "unprecedented" before it was cool. 

There are plenty of historical comparisons to certain aspects of this pandemic, but the big defining feature that makes this unprecedented is that the whole world is affected. Nobody's exempt.

[kalvado]

A month of lockdown for most of the world may be fairly unprecedented, though.

As opposed to years of it during WWII?  At least locally in the U.S. there was certainly travel and liberty restrictions.  Not to mention how much non-essential businesses were shuttered and never came back.  Example; World War II essentially killed off the pre-War Gold Mining industry.  I would imagine that similar stories can be found in every country that was in that war or closely affected by it.

still quite a different story. At the very least, schools were not affected.
Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

[kphoger]

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

[kalvado]

Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

Partially panic, partially economy affording such stay at home, partially people being used to epidemics being thing if the past.
Another interesting aspect, pretty strong for US in particular, it is about breaking the stereotype of "not gonna happen to us". Something similar happened with 9/11, if you think about it.
First, it was "for those unsanitary Asian countries only", then "OK, maybe Europe, but not US". Part 3 "only those dense liberal cities, not us outside of NYC" is now playing.

[Max Rockatansky]

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there. 

[US71]

I see on the news the US just had its worst day so far with 2909 deaths.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

[kalvado]

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there.

For one, data shows that restrictions barely work in US. Cas count is pretty flat for past month - meaning restrictions need to be tightened before relaxing them can be discussed. Right now, any ease of restrictions would cause flare up.
Don't get me wrong, I am willing to pay back my paycheck just to be allowed to go to work. But numbers tell a pretty ugly story...

[Max Rockatansky]

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

I was wondering if this might be the answer.

Pandemic with total lockdown may be unprecedented thing.

  Maybe it's the panic that's unprecedented...

The degree of mass hysteria and media driven panic is a relatively new phenomenon.  That's one of the biggest problems with having so much access to information.  People were spun up about all this months ago.  Having everyone stirred up from the get go definitely plays a bigger factor in why restrictions ended up as harsh they did and why a lot of places aren't starting to ease up at all. 

But then again, there panic usually about whatever is negative in the news cycle.  Not exactly usually to this degree, but it is there.

For one, data shows that restrictions barely work in US. Cas count is pretty flat for past month - meaning restrictions need to be tightened before relaxing them can be discussed. Right now, any ease of restrictions would cause flare up.
Don't get me wrong, I am willing to pay back my paycheck just to be allowed to go to work. But numbers tell a pretty ugly story...

I just look at the current hospital data and don't see a point at having every "non-essential"  business"  keep closed.  Stuff like bike shops, furniture stores, and car washes for example could follow the protocols already being set by other businesses that are required to operate.  I don't see why every park would need to be shut down like the governor out here in California was supposedly planning...closing a specific set of "problem"  beaches ultimately made more sense.  I'm not talking full opening, but not easing it up and allowing except a select few to operate isn't going to work either. 

Either way, I'm hoping this antibody stuff turns out to be promising.  It would be nice to get some sort of "qualified biological"  immunity on paper just in case that turns into some sort pandemic passport at some point.  Regardless I want to know just for my own curiosity. 

[NJRoadfan]

Bike shops are open in NJ and deemed essential. I noticed that "self serve" automatic car washes seem to be able to operate as well.

[Max Rockatansky]

Bike shops are open in NJ and deemed essential. I noticed that "self serve" automatic car washes seem to be able to operate as well.

Our bike shop just reopened.  The car self serve car washes are operating but not the ones that had a detail service.  I detailed cars for years on a mobile service, the only real interaction you have with anyone is when you get paid/tipped. 

Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

[tradephoric]

I see on the news the US just had its worst day so far with 2909 deaths.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

The worst day for deaths occurred even as America has been locked down for the past 6 weeks.  There are 244 days from now till January 1, 2021 which is the earliest most experts believe a vaccine can be developed.  Even if the US remained under lock down, if the US averages 2200 deaths per day we will be sitting at 603,000 deaths before the vaccine is ready to go.  With antibody tests suggesting a mortality rate of roughly .3% and assuming herd immunity is reached at 60%, there would be 592,200 deaths if the virus just naturally ran its course.  So unless if we start to average well below 2200 deaths per day, the vaccine won't have anybody left to save.

[kalvado]

I just look at the current hospital data and don't see a point at having every "non-essential"  business"  keep closed.  Stuff like bike shops, furniture stores, and car washes for example could follow the protocols already being set by other businesses that are required to operate.  I don't see why every park would need to be shut down like the governor out here in California was supposedly planning...closing a specific set of "problem"  beaches ultimately made more sense.  I'm not talking full opening, but not easing it up and allowing except a select few to operate isn't going to work either. 

Thing is, it doesn't quite work that way. (disclaimer: nothing personal about bike shops, I am giving a generic argument)
Infection rate is a big deal, and currently, US balances at about 1.00 infectee per one infector. Opening a few businesses with all precautions may increase the rate just enough to go into flare-up mode - even with all those endless wipes and masks, there is no bullet-proof guarantee.  (although drive-through automatic car wash has as little effect as I can think of. But demand probably dropped like a rock - along with gas consumption). That's why something may need to be improved before something else is relaxed. I hope someone in CDC is collecting statistics on things like mask usage, takeout sales and associated regional trends to come up with a more sensible set of restrictions, but I am less than optimistic about their capabilities.
Again, this is all regional; for one, NYC may have a very solid baseline to start easing by now, but US as a whole is still in a bad shape. And you don't look at hospital capacity or bare case count, you have to look at day-to-day new case count trends.

Either way, I'm hoping this antibody stuff turns out to be promising.  It would be nice to get some sort of "qualified biological"  immunity on paper just in case that turns into some sort pandemic passport at some point.  Regardless I want to know just for my own curiosity.

Point is, nobody knows how well those "pandemic passports" would work. Secondary symptomless (or mild) reinfection can be safe for you, but you may be a spreader. No "get out of jail free" cards until that is clear.
As for curiosity... welcome to the club, your membership ID is US123,456,789

[Max Rockatansky]

I see on the news the US just had its worst day so far with 2909 deaths.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

The worst day for deaths occurred even as America has been locked down for the past 6 weeks.  There are 244 days from now till January 1, 2021 which is the earliest most experts believe a vaccine can be developed.  Even if the US remained under lock down, if the US averages 2200 deaths per day we will be sitting at 603,000 deaths before the vaccine is ready to go.  With antibody tests suggesting a mortality rate of roughly .3% and assuming herd immunity is reached at 60%, there would be 592,200 deaths if the virus just naturally ran its course.  So unless if we start to average well below 2200 deaths per day, the vaccine won't have anybody left to save.

And that's kind of the point I was getting at.  If the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?  Things in people's lives are already breaking if not completely broken from being non-functional.  If safety standards could be introduced into businesses that are closed right now will it really have a net worse affect than keeping everything closed?  That's the dollars and cents question that a lot of folks seem to be asking now.  How much longer at full restrictions is really going to cause a benefit to case loads?  If there is a way to slowly reintroduce facets of work and business that doesn't overwhelm hospital loads then it probably should explored on a regional basis.  Counting on a virus to save the day probably won't save anyone for at least a solid year.  Even when and IF a vaccine is developed it will take a long time to get wide distribution anyways. 

[Max Rockatansky]

Regarding a "pandemic passport"  I know that's just likely wishful thinking.  Either way it would be nice to know if my wife and I had it just for peace of mind.  My Cousin caught COVID in course of her job at work already earlier on in the pandemic, I would be curious to find out if she has taken an antibody test. 

[kalvado]

If the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?

I suspect this is not about hardening, this is about compliance.
Just a recent example: Here in NY, masks are required to be worn in public by governor's order; yet yesterday I saw a state trooper, of all people,  doing a traffic stop without a mask. A car window was rolled down, I didn't notice if driver had a mask. I specifically didn't quite like that since training a replacement trooper would have to be paid out of my taxes..

[Max Rockatansky]

If the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?

I suspect this is not about hardening, this is about compliance.
Just a recent example: Here in NY, masks are required to be worn in public by governor's order; yet yesterday I saw a state trooper, of all people,  doing a traffic stop without a mask. A car window was rolled down, I didn't notice if driver had a mask. I specifically didn't quite like that since training a replacement trooper would have to be paid out of my taxes..

Funny, I was just talking to an officer that had his mask down once he got out of the squad car.  I don't even he realized that it was down when he was talking to me, there really wasn't time to have a conversation about pulling it back up.  I'm find myself questioning the effectiveness of some of the home brew masks I see, a lot of them seem to slip off the nose easily.  Right now in my day to day life I'm subject to four different orders on COVID-19, keeping them all straight is getting frustrating. 

[kalvado]

If the measures being done right now aren't slowing the virus on the whole nationwide what makes anyone think that hardening things even more so will make a difference?

I suspect this is not about hardening, this is about compliance.
Just a recent example: Here in NY, masks are required to be worn in public by governor's order; yet yesterday I saw a state trooper, of all people,  doing a traffic stop without a mask. A car window was rolled down, I didn't notice if driver had a mask. I specifically didn't quite like that since training a replacement trooper would have to be paid out of my taxes..

Funny, I was just talking to an officer that had his mask down once he got out of the squad car.  I don't even he realized that it was down when he was talking to me, there really wasn't time to have a conversation about pulling it back up.  I'm find myself questioning the effectiveness of some of the home brew masks I see, a lot of them seem to slip off the nose easily.  Right now in my day to day life I'm subject to four different orders on COVID-19, keeping them all straight is getting frustrating.

Covering nose makes you slightly less vulnerable, covering mouth makes those around you much less vulnerable.
But yes, there is a mess of ideas and orders. Starting with CDC saying masks are not needed (and how may lives did that cost, I wonder?)

[bing101]

I've been hearing the phrase "these unprecedented times" a whole heck of a lot lately.

Question for those of you who know history better than I do:  Are these unprecedented times?  Or are other pandemics or recessions repeating themselves, and we've just forgotten about them?

Unprecedented in the life of anyone currently younger than retirement age, yes.  In terms of the broad sweep of history, no.

*  World War II was more fiscally disruptive (defense spending reached about 40% of GDP in 1944).

*  The Great Depression led to a higher percentage of unemployment, for a longer period, with no safety net (no unemployment insurance or Social Security at the beginning).

*  The 1918 influenza pandemic killed many more (both absolutely and as a percentage of the US population), though it itself was not as lethal as the Black Death.

Also I remember hearing that Polio and Smallpox were once huge pandemics prior to COVID-19.

[Tonytone]

How long before we have stores & public places saying "You cannot wear a mask here"  

Then threaten the person by calling the cops or getting Angry


iPhone

[Revive 755]

Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat? 

[wolfiefrick]

Regardless it seems like the variations between is and isn't essential are far from uniform across the board. 

Then there are the nonsensical ones.  Take Illinois, where now only two people can go on a boat for recreation.  So a family of three or more, living in the same house, can't go on the same boat? 

Parks are another nonsensical one.

Take Los Angeles, for example – they closed all beaches in LA and Orange Counties the other week, but then everyone in those counties just went to Newport Beach. Before long there were 40,000 people at Newport Beach and the authorities in LA County were genuinely curious as to why that happened.

It's almost like keeping parks and beaches open will *reduce* overcrowding by allowing people more than one choice for recreational activities. Ugh.

[hbelkins]

How long before we have stores & public places saying "You cannot wear a mask here"  

Then threaten the person by calling the cops or getting Angry


iPhone

This may or may  not be true, but I've seen in numerous places that if you have a health condition that precludes you wearing a mask, you're not required to. And due to HIPAA or other privacy concerns, stores are not allowed to inquire about your condition. So, if you decline to wear a mask and say it's because of your health, the facility has to take your word for it and cannot question you or refuse you entry.

I'm allergic to heavy-handed government decrees. They cause my blood pressure to skyrocket.