Coronavirus pandemic

[tradephoric]

Let's also take into account the states that are seeing spikes in new cases even while they remain under lock down.  California took aggressive actions when they started to see cases pop in San Francisco and those measures may have prevented the state from getting hit hard early on compared to other states (California has 5 times the population of Michigan yet have reported half the number of deaths).   But now California is seeing an outbreak in new cases and they may experience a worst-case scenario:  you lock down your state for 6 weeks to try to contain the spread... now that containment has failed strict lock down measures are actually needed just as the residents of California lack the motivation to keep adhering to them.



I'm going under the assumption that no state government will be effective at containing this virus. Enforcing draconian measures in this country will lead Americans to rise up in their capitals to remind their elected leaders that the 1st and 2nd amendments still apply in this country... wait that's already happening! 

Maga protesters in Delaware.


iPhone

What are they gonna do? Shoot the virus?

With that in mind, opening the economy back up and implementing regional lock downs when hospitals start to get overrun seems like the only practical solution.  Residents are much more likely to observe stay at home orders when they see body bags being loaded up into frozen semi-containers on their local news.  Until then they probably won't take it too seriously when there's only a few confirmed cases in their county.

[bandit957]

I think that at this point, this pandemic is dying off in the U.S. It looks like the official count of new cases hasn't gone down much, but that's because they've ramped up testing. These pandemics like this just don't last forever. We saw the same thing with SARS.

It can't last, and it won't last.

[bandit957]

Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

[AlexandriaVA]

Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I spent a month in Terra Haute one night...

[SEWIGuy]

Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I spent a month in Terra Haute one night...

I lived there two years. 

[hotdogPi]

Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I might be able to see the point here. They might be trying to get people out of Michigan beaches and densely populated Chicago, and since Indiana has no famous tourism spots, the tourists will be more spread out. I still don't agree with the decision, though.

[Max Rockatansky]

Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

I might be able to see the point here. They might be trying to get people out of Michigan beaches and densely populated Chicago, and since Indiana has no famous tourism spots, the tourists will be more spread out. I still don't agree with the decision, though.

I don't know about that, the Indiana Dunes was a favorite for many I lived in Chicago.  That place always seemed well known to me and I wasn't surprised it ended up becoming a National Park. 

[tdindy88]

Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

Umm...no. There is nothing...NOTHING in the media here in Indianapolis actively promoting people to head out for tourist reasons.

[NWI_Irish96]

Surprisingly, Indiana is actually encouraging tourism this week.

Umm...no. There is nothing...NOTHING in the media here in Indianapolis actively promoting people to head out for tourist reasons.

I've also not seen anything in this part of the state.  The statewide stay-at-home order was relaxed beginning today, except for Marion, Lake and Cass counties.  The plan is now to relax those three a week from today. 

Retail and restaurants are limited to 50% capacity.  Social gatherings limited to 25 people.

[J N Winkler]

Per the VOX article: 'the IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak – an assumption that has not been borne out.'

I think the key takeaway is that the IHME model is an exercise in curve-fitting based on previous experience in China and Italy, not based on underlying SIR/SEIR theories of disease spread.

I don't view these criticisms as offering support for falling back to a strategy of allowing herd immunity to develop.  I haven't seen any advocacy of this approach that explains how overrun of intensive-care resource will be prevented once exponential growth in cases resumes, or accounts for the possibility of disastrous long-term sequelae (SARS, for example, has been correlated with high rates of bone tissue necrosis in survivors).

[hbelkins]

There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

[ftballfan]

There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

I have to agree! Over the next few years, I feel it will come out that there were a significant number of indirect deaths from causes such as suicides, overdoses, heart attacks (and people that didn't go to the hospital with a legitimate emergency), cancer (due to cancelled elective surgeries), and other causes.

[TheGrassGuy]

NJ closed the schools... https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1257335443491893249

[hotdogPi]

There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

I have to agree! Over the next few years, I feel it will come out that there were a significant number of indirect deaths from causes such as suicides, overdoses, heart attacks (and people that didn't go to the hospital with a legitimate emergency), cancer (due to cancelled elective surgeries), and other causes.

And there will be other causes of death that are reduced, such as car accidents.

[MikieTimT]

There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

That's the part of all this that not enough people are considering. Suicides and murders will increase due to the mental stress of isolation and more free time to stew about things out of our control. There are women and children that may now be trapped in abusive situations that increase the time around the abusers. So, in essence, we are trading the lives of the ones with compromised immunities for those with compromised mental or living situations. Which are more valuable to society? Who can say? There are no easy or right answers, but I don't think enough have asked the questions.

[kalvado]

There's going to be a real human toll in this that has nothing to do with contracting the virus itself.

The son of a former boss of mine OD'd and died over the weekend. The family asked me to write his obituary. This kid was a talented artist but had battled substance abuse issues for a few years. He'd recently been promoted at his job and had been clean for two years. His sister told me that it appeared the isolation from the guidelines that have been set got to him and caused him to relapse -- sadly, fatally for him.

I'm also familiar with at least one suicide; a "friend of a friend" deal. A young man lost his job due to the virus reactions/restrictions and was already behind on his child support payments. It pushed him over the edge and he killed himself.

That's the part of all this that not enough people are considering. Suicides and murders will increase due to the mental stress of isolation and more free time to stew about things out of our control. There are women and children that may now be trapped in abusive situations that increase the time around the abusers. So, in essence, we are trading the lives of the ones with compromised immunities for those with compromised mental or living situations. Which are more valuable to society? Who can say? There are no easy or right answers, but I don't think enough have asked the questions.

And what kind of answer do you expect?
Worst case scenario is doubling, if not tripling total annual death rates if in-rush of infected become such that even oxygen will not be available for those who need it. Thar is about 3 -5 million deaths on top of normal. US annual suicide rate is 1% of that, so even 10x increase in suicide does not trip the balance.
100 years ago, when there was no effective cancer or heart attack therapy, psychological support, no concept of family abuse, no social security at all - US life expectancy was about 60% of today's, so death rate was 1.6 times higher. Again, not nearly enough to trip the balance. 

[jeffandnicole]

NJ closed the schools... https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1257335443491893249

Can't say I'm surprised about that.  Based on informal Facebook groups for the town I live in, most people would rather keep their kids home anyway at this point.

[vdeane]

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.

I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder

All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

[ftballfan]

NJ closed the schools... https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1257335443491893249

Took them long enough! Michigan (which was #3 in total cases behind NJ and NY in early April but has been passed by CA, IL, MA, and PA since then) called off in-person instruction for the remainder of the year on April 2

[bandit957]

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.

I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder

All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I think people are just sort of ignoring it.

I walked around the neighborhood earlier, and I was floored to see cars with Alabama and Pennsylvania plates parked along the street. This isn't even a neighborhood that really gets any tourism.

My jaw practically hit the ground when I saw this.

[Roadgeekteen]

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.

I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder

All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I think people are just sort of ignoring it.

I walked around the neighborhood earlier, and I was floored to see cars with Alabama and Pennsylvania plates parked along the street. This isn't even a neighborhood that really gets any tourism.

My jaw practically hit the ground when I saw this.

People love freedom here.

[tradephoric]

Ultimately the government needs to weigh the health impacts of reopening the economy vs. the economic impacts of keeping everything shut down.  While Fauci and Berx are concerned with their coronavirus models, those don't take into the long-term health impacts of keeping the country closed for an extended period.  By extending the stay at home orders, you may save 100k lives from COVID but 150k more people end up committing suicide.  Also, the models don't factor in how deeply Americans value their 1st and 2nd amendment rights.  When Americans feel their rights are being violated, they will protest in large gatherings which will impact the infection rate of the virus.  Deborah Birx recently said that the Michigan stay-at-home protests are "˜devastatingly worrisome'.  But they honestly couldn't see that coming?  If the virus is going to spread anyways (either due to large gathering protests or by reopening businesses), letting it spread due to the economy reopening sounds more beneficial.  Now just imagine if the extended economic decline due to the extreme mitigation measures push the world into war.  Compare the hundreds of thousands of COVID lives saved in the short term to the potentially millions of lives lost in war... it becomes a complicated issue.

[74/171FAN]

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.

I can't comment about the cops, but they really did ban non-essential travel

https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to-covid-19/#StayatHomeOrder

All individuals in counties subject to this policy must STAY AT HOME except for certain essential activities and work to provide life-sustaining business and government services.

I have been making sure that I make sure to have some sort of way to show a cop that I am doing something essential (such as ordering food on the Sheetz app and keeping the email in the inbox)  whenever I do head out.  Otherwise, it is too risky for me to bother even though apparently paperwork is not necessary.

[oscar]

This may or may  not be true, but I've seen in numerous places that if you have a health condition that precludes you wearing a mask, you're not required to. And due to HIPAA or other privacy concerns, stores are not allowed to inquire about your condition. So, if you decline to wear a mask and say it's because of your health, the facility has to take your word for it and cannot question you or refuse you entry.

I think the problem with that is those last three words. Firefighters who can't wear masks for their breathing equipment, or surgeons who can't wear masks to prevent their germs from getting sneezed inside their patients while they're cut open, are told to not report for duty, or to go into some other line of work, even if they have good health reasons for going unmasked. ISTM that a store can adopt a similar policy to help protect its workers and customers, especially if ordered by the government, or even if (in my state, so far) it's not under government order.

I understand that one southern state, that had forbidden the wearing of masks as an anti-KKK measure, had to modify that policy so people could go into storm shelters with their masks as a tornado approached, since storm shelters aren't normally conducive to social distancing.

[SEWIGuy]

Ultimately the government needs to weigh the health impacts of reopening the economy vs. the economic impacts of keeping everything shut down.  While Fauci and Berx are concerned with their coronavirus models, those don't take into the long-term health impacts of keeping the country closed for an extended period.  By extending the stay at home orders, you may save 100k lives from COVID but 150k more people end up committing suicide.  Also, the models don't factor in how deeply Americans value their 1st and 2nd amendment rights.  When Americans feel their rights are being violated, they will protest in large gatherings which will impact the infection rate of the virus.  Deborah Birx recently said that the Michigan stay-at-home protests are "˜devastatingly worrisome'.  But they honestly couldn't see that coming?  If the virus is going to spread anyways (either due to large gathering protests or by reopening businesses), letting it spread due to the economy reopening sounds more beneficial.  Now just imagine if the extended economic decline due to the extreme mitigation measures push the world into war.  Compare the hundreds of thousands of COVID lives saved in the short term to the potentially millions of lives lost in war... it becomes a complicated issue.

First of all, I want to see hard evidence, and not just anecdotal stories, that show how much suicides actually go up due to "stay at home" orders.  And 150,000 *additional* suicides would mean a quadrupling of the number of suicides a year which is just shy of about 50,000 nationwide in any given year. 

Second, regarding the protests.  I firmly believe that if we had strong and consistent messaging from the very top at the beginning of this, that these protests would not have happened.  Or they would have been significantly smaller.  But we haven't.  We have had mixed messages from the President from the beginning on this thing.  And no offense, but the idea that we shouldn't have had "stay at home" orders because people will stupidly protest them, is a huge failure in logic.

Finally, and people don't seem to grasp this, economic decline was going to happen regardless of the stay at home orders.  What if we didn't issue those orders, and we had outbreaks across the country like they saw in New York and are seeing at the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.  Do you think people would operate with a business as normal approach?  Going out to eat, going to work, etc.?  Of course not.  The economic decline was going to happen with this pandemic regardless if we are staying at home.