Coronavirus pandemic

[kalvado]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.

Not even that. Hospitals are laying off "regular care" staff and loosing money - and a big concern is that people postpone treatment as much as they can (I, for one,  postponed my annual physical and dental cleaning)
Not completely unfounded - a friend of mine had to go to ER and brought back the virus. He had minor cold, his wife had it on a serious side.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/01/americans-are-delaying-medical-care-its-devastating-health-care-providers/?arc404=true

[ET21]

Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue
-Gyms can only have 10 people in personal classes
-6 people per table max at restaurants
-No spa services that require the removal of masks

Overall, Illinois has been steady with 800-1200 cases per day the past month and a positive rate around 3%. But some hotspots are starting to pop in city neighborhoods known for their bars and clubs. 

[webny99]

It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.

[kalvado]

It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.

What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

[webny99]

It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.

What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.

[kalvado]

It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.

What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.

Well, wouldn't that be a constitutional level challenge?
As for "done well"... Do it American way! We definitely need a precedent when someone without a mask is shot, and shooter is cleared on "self defense against deadly threat" grounds.

[Brandon]

It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.

What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.

And how are you going to close a border like this one: https://goo.gl/maps/etxLRub45TW14bWRA ?
Just between Pennsylvania and New York, there are 7 freeway crossings and hundreds of smaller roads along 328 miles of state border, of which about 245 miles are on land.

And that's just New York-Pennsylvania.  Texas-New Mexico runs for about 540 miles, mostly as a land border.  Then we run into the constitutional problem of regulating interstate commerce, which is the purview of the federal government.

[Brandon]

Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it. 

[hbelkins]

I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084. Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.

Yes.  Message board DOT guy knows causes of death accross his state.  Clearly we should all take your word on this issue.

I live here. I know. If I was so inclined to waste time with you and your crappy attitude, I'd dig up the public statements from next of kin in the Carter and Lincoln county cases and post them. In the Carter County case, I'm friends with one of the deceased's childhood friends.

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

No one has presented actual evidence otherwise.

I guess you missed my comment about the wife of a Kentucky congressman who died of a heart valve condition. She had been scheduled for elective surgery to correct that problem but it got delayed when the governor ordered elective surgeries to cease in anticipation of a wave of COVID hospitalizations that never came. Confirmed by a mutual friend.

I'm hopeful that sometime in the future, the congressman will make a public statement about it. Right now everyone's sensitive to politicizing the issue because the Kentucky attorney general has joined lawsuits challenging the legality of the governor's executive orders.

It seems sensible at this point to recognize that individual states in this country should either be granted more control, or less, but not the amount they currently have.

What do you mean by "more"? The only thing which is IMHO missing is state ability to close borders, and that is not something easily done both legally and logistically, as many urban areas have cross-state commute and delivery flows.

Yes, ability to close state borders is a big one. Basically if the federal government is going to leave things to the states, states should be able to do (almost) anything that an individual country could do to contain the virus, like NZ and some EU countries that have done well.

And how are you going to close a border like this one: https://goo.gl/maps/etxLRub45TW14bWRA ?
Just between Pennsylvania and New York, there are 7 freeway crossings and hundreds of smaller roads along 328 miles of state border, of which about 245 miles are on land.

And that's just New York-Pennsylvania.  Texas-New Mexico runs for about 540 miles, mostly as a land border.  Then we run into the constitutional problem of regulating interstate commerce, which is the purview of the federal government.

Kentucky's governor instituted a travel ban. It got struck down in federal court.

[Scott5114]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

Well, you either have a shutdown of non-essential care, or you start having shutdowns of essential care because all the covid patients are crowding everyone else out of the hospital. See my post a few pages back about what's going on in Oklahoma–a coworker's mom was denied ICU care at all in Oklahoma City and ended up having to be transported to Lawton.

Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it. 

Well...it does, in a manner of speaking. Bars have been serving as superspreaders nationwide. Mostly because drunk people aren't inclined to follow social distancing or wear a mask.

[SEWIGuy]

I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084. Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.

Yes.  Message board DOT guy knows causes of death accross his state.  Clearly we should all take your word on this issue.

I live here. I know. If I was so inclined to waste time with you and your crappy attitude, I'd dig up the public statements from next of kin in the Carter and Lincoln county cases and post them. In the Carter County case, I'm friends with one of the deceased's childhood friends.

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

No one has presented actual evidence otherwise.

I guess you missed my comment about the wife of a Kentucky congressman who died of a heart valve condition.

Well, that's an example of something that may or may not be a problem.  There is no evidence to suggest that massive numbers of people are dying due to delayed health care.

But regardless, the solution is to manage Covid so people can and will access health care.  Again, you don't have your cause correct.  The cause IS the pandemic.

The fact:  A statistically significant greater number of people are dying this year.  (That shoots down your "but they really aren't dying of Covid" farce.)  Those people are dying mostly from Covid, or because people can't access or won't access health care they normally would.

So you want to save lives?  Then we should be doing what we can to manage this.

[tradephoric]

Daily deaths aren't rising very fast compared to April.   It's taking a week for daily deaths to nudge up 6.7% whereas back in April we were seeing daily deaths more than double during the same time period. 

-The 7-day average daily deaths from 4/1 thru 4/8 increased from 741 to 1642 (222% increase).
-The 7-day average daily deaths from 7/12 thru 7/19 increased from 741 to 791 (6.7% increase).

*This data was taken from Worldometers.

[US 89]

An interesting elimination list - the following counties have yet to report a single case:

On a map that's these counties:

Wayne County, Utah should also be on there.

[kphoger]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

Why do people keep making that comparison?  Shirt and shoes are not required by state order.  Masks are.  Not the same thing.

Clothing in general is required in many jurisdictions, but that is because even innocent nudity is considered indecent exposure there.  Note that, in some jurisdictions, the requirement for a woman to wear a shirt has been struck down as sexist.  In Yew York, for example, a person out in public without shirt or shoes or face mask could only be cited for the lack of a mask.

[kphoger]

We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?

[tradephoric]

Arizona has seen their test positivity rate drop over the past week.  In addition the average number of daily cases has dropped by 18% from their peak of 3697 cases on July 7th to 3022 cases today.  Arizona may finally be past their peak and start to see cases drop precipitously.

[NWI_Irish96]

We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?

I don't know that we need as strict of a shutdown as we had previously. Requiring masks in all buildings, restricting buildings to 25% of capacity, and limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period should be enough to get things under control if everybody would actually do it.

[Roadgeekteen]

We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?

I don't know that we need as strict of a shutdown as we had previously. Requiring masks in all buildings, restricting buildings to 25% of capacity, and limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period should be enough to get things under control if everybody would actually do it.

That may be not as strict as we had before.

[kalvado]

We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And then, when we open up responsibly and case numbers start to rise again, we should shut down again?  Rinse and repeat forever?  Doesn't shutting down just delay the inevitable?

That's a genuine question, not sarcasm.  If we shut down again, is there actually any long-term benefit, or are we just kicking the can down the street a ways?

I don't know that we need as strict of a shutdown as we had previously. Requiring masks in all buildings, restricting buildings to 25% of capacity, and limiting outdoor social gatherings to 10 or fewer people for an 8-week period should be enough to get things under control if everybody would actually do it.

What if it doesn't? You may hope for the best- but still need to have a backup plan...

[J N Winkler]

What if it doesn't? You may hope for the best- but still need to have a backup plan...

Backup plan:  Rolling lockdowns (organized on a countywide basis in much of the country, this representing probably the best compromise between statewide uniformity and over-regulation in counties that have no cases) in areas that meet trigger criteria.  This continues until a vaccine is developed.  Depending on how long the immunity lasts, we either vaccinate everybody as we reopen, or we try to vaccinate as many people as possible within a short period and have a coordinated nationwide lockdown to freeze out outbreaks among people for whom the vaccine doesn't work.

[Brandon]

Daily deaths aren't rising very fast compared to April.   It's taking a week for daily deaths to nudge up 6.7% whereas back in April we were seeing daily deaths more than double during the same time period. 

-The 7-day average daily deaths from 4/1 thru 4/8 increased from 741 to 1642 (222% increase).
-The 7-day average daily deaths from 7/12 thru 7/19 increased from 741 to 791 (6.7% increase).

*This data was taken from Worldometers.

And it looks like this is the peak for some states.
https://covid19-projections.com/ (which has been one of the most accurate models so far)

Florida: https://covid19-projections.com/us-fl
Texas: https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx
Iowa: https://covid19-projections.com/us-ia
Georgia: https://covid19-projections.com/us-ga
California: https://covid19-projections.com/us-ca
California actually looks like it may be just past the hump.

New York and New Jersey lead the way in the number and percentage of people infected:
https://covid19-projections.com/us-nj
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ny
And it looks like New Jersey is in for a little bump in the future.

Hawai'i, in spite of a quarantine focused on travelers from the rest of the country, is increasing quite a bit: https://covid19-projections.com/us-hi

South Dakota, which never shut down, has reproduction number of 0.95, below New York's and New Jersey's: https://covid19-projections.com/us-sd

Maine, which wants quarantine from all out-of-state travelers, has a reproduction number of 1.07: https://covid19-projections.com/us-me
They also have increasing numbers of newly infected and total infected.

To use some other comparisons, Ontario has a reproduction number similar to a lot of US states at 0.98: https://covid19-projections.com/canada-ontario
As does Quebec at 0.97: https://covid19-projections.com/canada-quebec

Sweden actually looks pretty good.  A reproduction number of 0.88, and a total infected of 11.1%, below New York and New Jersey: https://covid19-projections.com/sweden

The UK; however, has a reproductive number of 0.97, above that of South Dakota: https://covid19-projections.com/united-kingdom

By contrast, Australia seems to be in for an increase, even with controls, in the future: https://covid19-projections.com/australia
Their reproductive number is 1.02.

As for India, they have a reproductive number of 1.05 and appear to be in for a world of hurt in the future: https://covid19-projections.com/india

Japan seems to be on a steady increase: https://covid19-projections.com/japan

Iran does seem to be in a world of hurt, with a peak that just keeps growing: https://covid19-projections.com/iran

South Korea, by contrast to most, seems to have a handle on it: https://covid19-projections.com/south-korea

Some maps:
US: https://covid19-projections.com/maps/
Europe: https://covid19-projections.com/maps-europe/
World: https://covid19-projections.com/maps-global/

[Eth]

Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it. 

Well...it does, in a manner of speaking. Bars have been serving as superspreaders nationwide. Mostly because drunk people aren't inclined to follow social distancing or wear a mask.

But why does it matter whether or not the bar serves food? That should be completely irrelevant from an epidemiological perspective.

[NWI_Irish96]

Chicago will be rolling back in a few areas starting Friday

-Bars that don't serve food must close indoor seating, outdoor can continue

Lori must think alcohol spreads it. 

Well...it does, in a manner of speaking. Bars have been serving as superspreaders nationwide. Mostly because drunk people aren't inclined to follow social distancing or wear a mask.

But why does it matter whether or not the bar serves food? That should be completely irrelevant from an epidemiological perspective.

Bars that don't serve food tend to have people closer together for longer periods of time compared to bars/restaurants that serve food.

[webny99]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about. In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

Why do people keep making that comparison?  Shirt and shoes are not required by state order.  Masks are.  Not the same thing.

Clothing in general is required in many jurisdictions, but that is because even innocent nudity is considered indecent exposure there.  Note that, in some jurisdictions, the requirement for a woman to wear a shirt has been struck down as sexist.  In Yew York, for example, a person out in public without shirt or shoes or face mask could only be cited for the lack of a mask.

People keep making the comparison because it's an easy and understandable one to make. Even though it's not exactly the same from a legal perspective, it doesn't make sense to complain about wearing a mask, but not about wearing a shirt/shoes. There's not even really a health-related basis for shoes/shirts requirements like there is for masks.

They're also similar in the sense that it matters more when you're indoors and in close proximity to others. When exercising on your own, I couldn't care less if you have a mask, shirt, or shoes. I just went for a walk today sans two of those items, maintained my social distance, and no one cared.

[kphoger]

This continues until a vaccine is developed.

Not a good plan.  What if the vaccine is four years away?