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How Likely is a White Christmas in Your City?

Started by Henry, November 14, 2017, 11:38:50 AM

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US 89

In Salt Lake City, we've had a white Christmas for 3 (or 4?) years in a row now. But each of those times it's been because a huge storm hit starting the night before Christmas. Last year it snowed almost a foot on Christmas Day itself, which is definitely rare.


dvferyance

The 6 last Christmas in my area
2011 No
2012 Yes but barely areas just to the south did not as we were on the southern fringe of a storm a few days before
2013 Yes
2014 No
2015 No
2016 Yes although much of it melted the next day
So really 50-50 which is about our ranking.

slorydn1

Christmas 1989 was the only Christmas where there was measurable snow on the ground here in New Bern during my lifetime. I was just visiting here then (didn't move here until 1991) and it was a lucky thing that my dad's last business trip before our vacation went long that year so the snow tires were still on his car when we drove down from Chicago.

Based on that, I would say the chances of having a white Christmas this year are slim to none.
Please Note: All posts represent my personal opinions and do not represent those of any governmental agency, non-governmental agency, quasi-governmental agency or wanna be governmental agency

Counties: Counties Visited

sparker

During the four years I spent in Portland (OR), Christmas time was about the only time the city received even a dusting of snow (in two years out of the four) -- but it was invariably accompanied by most of the roads icing over, which particularly affected my commute home, since I lived near the top of the ridge between Portland and Tigard; a couple of evenings I ended up spending most of the night in a pizza parlor near my PSU T.A. office waiting for someone to clear either I-5 or the parallel Barbur Blvd.  After spending the first 40+ years of my life in CA, having winter disrupt my local travel was a new one on me.  Particularly "chilling" was the ice buildup on the Willamette River bridges -- especially those with steel grates as the driving surface!

jakeroot

Quote from: sparker on November 22, 2017, 06:08:40 AM
During the four years I spent in Portland (OR), Christmas time was about the only time the city received even a dusting of snow (in two years out of the four) -- but it was invariably accompanied by most of the roads icing over, which particularly affected my commute home, since I lived near the top of the ridge between Portland and Tigard; a couple of evenings I ended up spending most of the night in a pizza parlor near my PSU T.A. office waiting for someone to clear either I-5 or the parallel Barbur Blvd.  After spending the first 40+ years of my life in CA, having winter disrupt my local travel was a new one on me.  Particularly "chilling" was the ice buildup on the Willamette River bridges -- especially those with steel grates as the driving surface!

Over the last few winters, Portland has been hit particularly hard by ice and snow. Enough so that, if the list in the OP was limited to just the last 10 years, I bet Portland would shoot way up the list.

As I recall reading, Portland has a lot of issues with ice because of the Columbia River Gorge. The humid, milder air, on the west side of the Cascades, combines with the cold, dry air on the east side. I'm not sure why these conditions contribute to ice, but they seem to in Portland quite a lot.

21stCenturyRoad

The truth is the truth even if no one believes it, and a lie is a lie even if everyone believes it.

hotdogPi

Quote from: jakeroot on November 22, 2017, 06:58:02 PM
Over the last few winters, Portland has been hit particularly hard by ice and snow. Enough so that, if the list in the OP was limited to just the last 10 years, I bet Portland would shoot way up the list.

As I recall reading, Portland has a lot of issues with ice because of the Columbia River Gorge. The humid, milder air, on the west side of the Cascades, combines with the cold, dry air on the east side. I'm not sure why these conditions contribute to ice, but they seem to in Portland quite a lot.

This list is based on climate, not weather. You can't distinguish a 0.1% difference with under 200 years of data.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

jakeroot

#32
Quote from: 1 on November 22, 2017, 10:33:50 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on November 22, 2017, 06:58:02 PM
Over the last few winters, Portland has been hit particularly hard by ice and snow. Enough so that, if the list in the OP was limited to just the last 10 years, I bet Portland would shoot way up the list.

This list is based on climate, not weather. You can't distinguish a 0.1% difference with under 200 years of data.

Always ready to correct someone as usual, 1;-)

I thought the list was based on the number of white Christmas' over a select period.

tdindy88

Taking meteorology classes back in school I seem to remember that the average temperature, precipitation and snowfall were based on their average over the last 30 years. The 200 year stuff is mainly for historical data and records.

ColossalBlocks

St Louis more than likely won't get a White Christmas.





Probably more so a wet Christmas like back in 2015.  :-D
I am inactive for a while now my dudes. Good associating with y'all.

US Highways: 36, 49, 61, 412.

Interstates: 22, 24, 44, 55, 57, 59, 72, 74 (West).

sparker

Wet?  maybe!  Snow -- possibly up on Mt. Hamilton; it's happened 3 of the 5 winters I've been in San Jose.  But down here on the barely-above-sea-level flatlands, only a chance in hell!  We got up to 80 the day after Thanksgiving, so even a cold Christmas isn't a certainty (although it rained and only got up to about 56 today!).

english si

La Nina and a predicted cold snap have meant odds are reduced to 4/6. Traditionally the odds are about a single flake of snow on the roof of the Met Office building in London but they've added alternative sites.

2009 and 2010 had snow on the ground at more than half the weather stations in Britain, and snow was falling Christmas Day at 10-20% of stations. In 2010, my area had over a foot of snow a few days before, but no snow after that blizzard and much it of it had melted as it was sunny (though that means very cold for most of the day due to the heat escaping at night and the sun not being that strong this far north at that time of year) for there on out (same 2009, but less so - there were perhaps a few patches left that year rather than a relatively high amount). I ate Christmas Dinner at a neighbours, outside in a marquee. Other than that, the only time I've seen snow at Christmas was 2011, on the mountains near Los Angeles.

But mostly it's too early for lots of snow with a maritime climate. A White Easter is more likely than a White Christmas. My Birthday is four months after Christmas (to the day) and there was significant snow on the ground after an overnight flurry in 1989 (I got a slide for the garden, and it had to be inside as there was a few inches of snow outside), my mum said it snowed in '91 as well, and it snowed a tiny amount this year - this is about as good as the Christmas Day levels of snow despite being a month into Spring.

The Dickensian White Christmas was a few 2010-esque years when Dickens was young (during The Little Ice Age). A Christmas Carol's snow on the ground in London is nostalgic as even then the snow usually came later in the year. Now it rarely comes at all. Love Actually rightly referred to it as a miracle with snow settling on Christmas Eve in inner London (add in that it was after the warm/wet 90s winters and before the few cold/snow winters in my lifetime) - the urban heat island effect, its low-lying nature, and it being sheltered from the south, north and west by hills, means that it gets far less snow (and almost never settling) than even the surrounding areas. But London in snow is somehow a Christmas image thanks to Dickens remembering some freak years in his childhood and injecting them into the culture in such a big way (Bing and that from America added to the falsehood). In 2010, my parents travelled at an average of walking pace on the M25 due to the snowfall - the guy in front fell asleep as visibility was too low to move for a while (and even they, only about 10 miles away, were shocked at my "about 8 inches" estimate of what we'd got, which was an underestimate), but couple of inches of snow melted not long after it touched the ground in Inner London just over 20 miles away, and my Grandparents further east than London and next to the sea didn't understand why we weren't sure if we'd be able to visit them on the next afternoon as they had only had a few flakes.

kkt

Quote from: sparker on November 27, 2017, 02:59:08 AM
Wet?  maybe!  Snow -- possibly up on Mt. Hamilton; it's happened 3 of the 5 winters I've been in San Jose.  But down here on the barely-above-sea-level flatlands, only a chance in hell!  We got up to 80 the day after Thanksgiving, so even a cold Christmas isn't a certainty (although it rained and only got up to about 56 today!).

Mt. Hamilton isn't in San Jose, any more than Snoqualmie Summit is in Seattle.

Seattle has some snow in the city most years, but it falls and typically melts within hours or a couple of days, so it's still a long shot having snow on the ground on Christmas.

jakeroot

Quote from: kkt on November 27, 2017, 04:58:59 PM
Quote from: sparker on November 27, 2017, 02:59:08 AM
Wet?  maybe!  Snow -- possibly up on Mt. Hamilton; it's happened 3 of the 5 winters I've been in San Jose.  But down here on the barely-above-sea-level flatlands, only a chance in hell!  We got up to 80 the day after Thanksgiving, so even a cold Christmas isn't a certainty (although it rained and only got up to about 56 today!).

Mt. Hamilton isn't in San Jose, any more than Snoqualmie Summit is in Seattle.

I'm guessing that's part of the gag...

Yeah, there could be a white Christmas -- in the mountains!



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