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The Census has released its population estimates for 2020

Started by kernals12, December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM

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NWI_Irish96

The Census 2020 redistricting apportionment totals were released today. This includes the national population total of 331,449,281, as well as the individual state, DC and territorial totals. This data is used to determine the number of seats in the US House of Representatives allocated to each state, based on the total number of 435 seats set by Congress. This figure is typically released on or just before December 31 of the Census year but with COVID delaying the various in-person operations, everything has been pushed back.

States gaining Congressional seats are:
Texas +2
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Montana +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1

States losing seats:
California -1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
New York -1
Ohio -1
Pennsylvania -1
West Virginia -1

Redistricting data, which includes counts down to the block level, is expected to be delivered to the states by August 16. While also a few months later than usual, it will still be in time for all states to redistrict in time for the 2022 Congressional primary elections, and for state legislature elections that occur in 2022. States that have state legislature elections in 2021 will not be able to redistrict in time.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%


Roadgeekteen

Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
God-emperor of Alanland, king of all the goats and goat-like creatures

Current Interstate map I am making:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1PEDVyNb1skhnkPkgXi8JMaaudM2zI-Y&ll=29.05778059819179%2C-82.48856825&z=5

kevinb1994

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
This is expected, the tax rate is one reason why.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.

In general yes, but there's also some shifting within the rust belt. In my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%. It wasn't enough to gain a Congressional seat, but we're in much better shape than the rest of the region.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

kevinb1994

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:39 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.

In general yes, but there's also some shifting within the rust belt. In my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%. It wasn't enough to gain a Congressional seat, but we're in much better shape than the rest of the region.
Well, they don't call Indiana the Crossroads of America for nothing.

kalvado

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...

Roadgeekteen

Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...
Maybe more people answered the census in New York.
God-emperor of Alanland, king of all the goats and goat-like creatures

Current Interstate map I am making:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1PEDVyNb1skhnkPkgXi8JMaaudM2zI-Y&ll=29.05778059819179%2C-82.48856825&z=5

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...

Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

webny99


Bruce

NY was 89 seats short on its lost seat, which is a shame given that follow-up surveys by enumerators were suspended too early. There were probably thousands in NY who weren't counted in time.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2021, 05:18:51 PM
NY was 89 seats short on its lost seat, which is a shame given that follow-up surveys by enumerators were suspended too early. There were probably thousands in NY who weren't counted in time.

There are backup methodologies for determining population counts for non-responsive households. Non-response has an incredibly minimal impact on the final population counts, although 89 would fall within that "minimal" range.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

kalvado

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:14:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...

Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Half a million deaths is across US, NY reports 52k covid deaths. This doesn't change +879k people actually counted over the estimate by that much.
Honestly speaking, I would look closely at double counting those who fled city to upstate and were counted in both locations.

webny99

Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...

"Visible loss" is a bit of a stretch, except in rural areas, but those aren't where most of the people are. You'd think upstate was booming judging from the housing market - and there has been a noticeable shift within the state from downstate to upstate. I've been confused for a few years now why all the estimates kept showing upstate in steady decline. I was really hoping that it would self-correct during the census, so I'm glad to see that materialize.


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 05:13:13 PM
Maybe more people answered the census in New York.

Cabiness42 could confirm this, but I don't think the final count is entirely dependent on the response rates. People usually still get counted one way or another even if they don't respond - that's why it's a population "estimate".


NWI_Irish96

Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:25:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:14:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...

Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Half a million deaths is across US, NY reports 52k covid deaths. This doesn't change +879k people actually counted over the estimate by that much.
Honestly speaking, I would look closely at double counting those who fled city to upstate and were counted in both locations.

We have an entire operation that weeds out double responses. It's one of the areas I work with. Unless people are deliberately using different names and ages (to be clear we aren't aware of any reports of this happening on a wide-spread scale), that's something we catch.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

TheHighwayMan3561

Quote from: Bruce on April 26, 2021, 05:18:51 PM
NY was 89 seats short on its lost seat, which is a shame given that follow-up surveys by enumerators were suspended too early. There were probably thousands in NY who weren't counted in time.

Minnesota was the state that held onto all 8 of its seats by the margin of that 89 people.
self-certified as the dumbest person on this board for 5 years running

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 05:31:27 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...

"Visible loss" is a bit of a stretch, except in rural areas, but those aren't where most of the people are. You'd think upstate was booming judging from the housing market - and there has been a noticeable shift within the state from downstate to upstate. I've been confused for a few years now why all the estimates kept showing upstate in steady decline. I was really hoping that it would self-correct during the census, so I'm glad to see that materialize.


Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 05:13:13 PM
Maybe more people answered the census in New York.

Cabiness42 could confirm this, but I don't think the final count is entirely dependent on the response rates. People usually still get counted one way or another even if they don't respond - that's why it's a population "estimate".



So, there are two different data products. There are annual estimates which are statistical formulas based on the survey responses of a sample of households. Then there is the every-ten-year Census which is an actual count of every household in the nation. For the households where we never get an actual response from the household, there are other methods for determining the number of people in the household. I don't work in that area, so I don't want to speak to the specifics and get something wrong, but rest assured the error rate is very low. Of course, 89 people out of 20 million is a very low error rate, but if you want that level of accuracy in a 331 million person country it's going to cost trillions and not billions.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

OCGuy81

It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio.  It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?

kalvado

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:33:42 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:25:40 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:14:17 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:05:41 PM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on April 26, 2021, 04:49:59 PM
Without getting political, looks like power is shifting from the rust belt to the sun belt.
NY managed to find an extra million people, +4.5% over earlier estimate,  to avoid loosing a second seat (and almost retained the lost one)
With people leaving NYC during early covid days and visible loss in upstate, I really wonder where those people were hiding...

Population counts are based on where you lived 4/1/20, so there hadn't really been any shifting due to COVID yet. Also, most of the half million that died did so after that date so they were counted.
Half a million deaths is across US, NY reports 52k covid deaths. This doesn't change +879k people actually counted over the estimate by that much.
Honestly speaking, I would look closely at double counting those who fled city to upstate and were counted in both locations.

We have an entire operation that weeds out double responses. It's one of the areas I work with. Unless people are deliberately using different names and ages (to be clear we aren't aware of any reports of this happening on a wide-spread scale), that's something we catch.
I am sure there are some safeguards, but data still looks pretty strange to me. Maybe things will be clearer once county and city level data is released.
Or I really would love to see an explanation why estimates went off specifically in 2 nearby states - NY and NJ - more than elsewhere.

tolbs17


kphoger

Quote from: OCGuy81 on April 26, 2021, 05:42:31 PM
It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio.  It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?

The nation sure paid a lot more attention to those states this past election than usual.
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

webny99

Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:43:02 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 26, 2021, 05:33:42 PM
We have an entire operation that weeds out double responses. It's one of the areas I work with. Unless people are deliberately using different names and ages (to be clear we aren't aware of any reports of this happening on a wide-spread scale), that's something we catch.
I am sure there are some safeguards, but data still looks pretty strange to me.

As a kid, I had always wondered if/when NY would ever crack 20 million, and over the past few years I basically concluded it wasn't going to happen anytime soon, so to see 20.2M seems strange and pleasantly surprising to me as well.


Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:43:02 PM
Maybe things will be clearer once county and city level data is released.

Speaking of which - when will that be?
The 2010 census had a great interactive map that I'm hoping will come back for 2020 as well.

webny99

Quote from: kphoger on April 26, 2021, 05:58:41 PM
Quote from: OCGuy81 on April 26, 2021, 05:42:31 PM
It'll be interesting to see the eventual shift in battleground states, especially with losses of seats in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio.  It likely won't be much different this decade, but will we begin to see Ohio being less the political Holy Land, giving that title to a place like Arizona or Nevada?

The nation sure paid a lot more attention to those states this past election than usual.

Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.

Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.

Scott5114

Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.

Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.

Ohio is far less competitive than it has been in the past, to the point that some people don't even consider it a purple state anymore. The same is true of Florida, for what it's worth.

Quote from: kevinb1994 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:31 PM
This is expected, the tax rate is one reason why.

That's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at it. The majority of people don't choose where to live based on tax rates. If they did Oklahoma would be booming, and it's not. Every person makes a decision where to live based on a number of factors that are unique to them, and while tax rates can be part of that, often times good schools, good climate, good jobs in the person's desired field, and interesting things to do nearby factor into it. (A professional surfer isn't going to move to Tennessee because the tax rate is good.)

Quote from: tolbs17 on April 26, 2021, 05:45:48 PM
Population crisis that's for sure .

What about any of this data constitutes a crisis?
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

Roadgeekteen

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 26, 2021, 07:07:42 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:54:57 PM
Not to get too far into politics here, but it is worth distinguishing between Ohio and PA/MI/WI.

Ohio has been "the" bellwether for a long time, so it probably got about average or maybe even less attention than usual. The other three obviously got way more attention than usual, since they hadn't been considered competitive during the previous ~five cycles.

Ohio is far less competitive than it has been in the past, to the point that some people don't even consider it a purple state anymore. The same is true of Florida, for what it's worth.

Quote from: kevinb1994 on April 26, 2021, 04:54:31 PM
This is expected, the tax rate is one reason why.

That's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at it. The majority of people don't choose where to live based on tax rates. If they did Oklahoma would be booming, and it's not. Every person makes a decision where to live based on a number of factors that are unique to them, and while tax rates can be part of that, often times good schools, good climate, good jobs in the person's desired field, and interesting things to do nearby factor into it. (A professional surfer isn't going to move to Tennessee because the tax rate is good.)

Quote from: tolbs17 on April 26, 2021, 05:45:48 PM
Population crisis that's for sure .

What about any of this data constitutes a crisis?
Florida is still red tinted purple, Ohio is blood red now.
God-emperor of Alanland, king of all the goats and goat-like creatures

Current Interstate map I am making:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1PEDVyNb1skhnkPkgXi8JMaaudM2zI-Y&ll=29.05778059819179%2C-82.48856825&z=5

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: webny99 on April 26, 2021, 06:44:39 PM
Quote from: kalvado on April 26, 2021, 05:43:02 PM
Maybe things will be clearer once county and city level data is released.

Speaking of which - when will that be?
The 2010 census had a great interactive map that I'm hoping will come back for 2020 as well.

It's supposed to be released to the states no later than August 16. Probably a few weeks beyond that to get all the data products live on the web site. I don't know what all is planned but that map was popular so I'd expect it to be back.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%



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