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The New Madrid Fault Zone

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From FEMA and GeoCONOPS:

The NMSZ has a 10 percent probability of a catastrophic NMSZ earthquake in the next fifty years. (from 2018)

A scenario analysis of a 7.7 NMSZ quake found that bridges as far north as Rock Island and Hennepin (yes, that I-180 bridge) and as far south as Natchez would sustain damage.

Bridges predicted to fail in a 7.7 are as follows:

- The 2 Cairo Bridges
- The Chester bridge
- The Paducah Bridge (US-45)
- I-155 Bridge
- Arkansas-Memphis Bridge
- DeSoto Bridge
- Helena Bridge
- Pine Bluff Bypass (Busn US-79)

The scenario analysis of a New Madrid event reaching 7.7 can be found here:

Too much information to cover in this thread, but they go through all the consequences in stark detail, including deaths, homelessness, how long it will take first responders to arrive, FEMA to get the National Guard in. All covered.

Maybe instead of a movie called "San Andreas", we need a new one called "New Madrid" and see if Dwayne Johnson can save us.

The chance of a major solar flare within the next 50 years is also about 10 percent, and it will be as disruptive as COVID-19 (but in a different way), but globally. It will actually be quite the opposite of COVID-19; everything will be moved from online to physical and non-electronic for several months. This type of event happened in 1859; with very little technology at the time, there were few issues.

Seismic retrofits are a fun chunk of the highway budgets on the West Coast, so perhaps y'all should get used to seeing them. Though even if the major bridges are retrofitted, it won't be entirely passable if the approaches and overpasses collapse and block the way.

I didn’t see the Cape Girardeau, I-57/Cairo, nor I-24/Paducah bridges on the “likely to fail” list

The Cairo/IL-KY bridge is already scheduled to be replaced

The Chester bridge has failed once, and I believe it is coming due for replacement anyway

If/When/Should the Big One happen, maybe that would be good justification for giving the Cape Girardeau bridge its Parkway/Expressway/Freeway connection to I-57 and I-24 that has been studied but no further action, cutting thru the Shawnee National Forest - for Trans-Mississippi River redundancy


--- Quote from: ilpt4u on October 14, 2021, 07:06:58 PM ---I didn’t see the Cape Girardeau, I-57/Cairo, nor I-24/Paducah bridges on the “likely to fail” list

--- End quote ---

They were on the "damage" list.

According to the damage chart, most of the seismic energy will travel south.

But because the midwest is so flat and regular, the shock waves will travel much farther.


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