Covid vaccination status?

[Big John]

Getting my first shot next Tuesday.  I don't know which one I'm getting.

[bm7]

There's no option for J&J people like me? I got mine prior to Grp 3. PM me if you like the proof.

I suppose you could choose the option for already having gotten both shots, since that's the functional equivalent of your situation.

[Scott5114]

Unfortunately, in these sorts of businesses, there's a cultural norm in the US to pinch a nickel so hard the buffalo shits on the employee

You still see those nickels in circulation?

If I remember right, |Scott5114| has seen more rare currency in the last nine years than most of us will see in a lifetime, by virtue of his having worked in a casino.

I have definitely seen a decent number of buffalo nickels. They certainly aren't as common as things like wheat pennies or bicentennial quarters but you do see them occasionally. They're nowhere near as rare as Indian head pennies or the nickels with the big "V" on the back (had one of those fall out of a bank roll of all things). Unfortunately, it's hard to gauge what normal circulation is from the casino, since we did get a decent number of transactions where someone had pretty clearly cleaned out their grandpa's coin collection to turn in for face value to get a $1 bill to stick in a slot machine.

Don't let any of that distract you from what I was communicating with the turn of phrase though

[snowc]

There's no option for J&J people like me? I got mine prior to Grp 3. PM me if you like the proof.

I suppose you could choose the option for already having gotten both shots, since that's the functional equivalent of your situation.

There you go...

[SectorZ]

Variants are the main reason I suspect we may need more than one round of vaccination and that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent.

See, I agree that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent, but would put forth an entirely different reason why: the percentage of the population in the US that is both able and willing to get vaccinated against covid is insufficient to render it as minor a public health threat as other diseases we don't generally worry much about due to vaccines. Masks in public ceasing to be warranted will thus have to wait for the people who can't and/or won't get vaccinated to gain immunity the hard way.

Or we can just make them suffer the consequences of not being vaccinated.

[hotdogPi]

Variants are the main reason I suspect we may need more than one round of vaccination and that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent.

See, I agree that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent, but would put forth an entirely different reason why: the percentage of the population in the US that is both able and willing to get vaccinated against covid is insufficient to render it as minor a public health threat as other diseases we don't generally worry much about due to vaccines. Masks in public ceasing to be warranted will thus have to wait for the people who can't and/or won't get vaccinated to gain immunity the hard way.

Or we can just make them suffer the consequences of not being vaccinated.

If we reach herd immunity by having enough vaccinated, the virus will die out. If we don't, it won't go away, and we'll have to deal with new variants and possibly get new vaccinations to deal with the new variants.

[kphoger]

Variants are the main reason I suspect we may need more than one round of vaccination and that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent.

See, I agree that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent, but would put forth an entirely different reason why: the percentage of the population in the US that is both able and willing to get vaccinated against covid is insufficient to render it as minor a public health threat as other diseases we don't generally worry much about due to vaccines. Masks in public ceasing to be warranted will thus have to wait for the people who can't and/or won't get vaccinated to gain immunity the hard way.

That's just making everyone protect those who don't want to be protected.

If we reach herd immunity by having enough vaccinated, the virus will die out. If we don't, it won't go away, and we'll have to deal with new variants and possibly get new vaccinations to deal with the new variants.

Maybe.  Or maybe not.

[webny99]

If we reach herd immunity by having enough vaccinated, the virus will die out. If we don't, it won't go away, and we'll have to deal with new variants and possibly get new vaccinations to deal with the new variants.

Maybe.  Or maybe not.

Given how Canada has been struggling with the vaccine rollout and is also having issues with new variants, it's safe to say that getting the vaccine out will reduce issues with future variants, at least in the short and medium term.

[SectorZ]

Variants are the main reason I suspect we may need more than one round of vaccination and that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent.

See, I agree that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent, but would put forth an entirely different reason why: the percentage of the population in the US that is both able and willing to get vaccinated against covid is insufficient to render it as minor a public health threat as other diseases we don't generally worry much about due to vaccines. Masks in public ceasing to be warranted will thus have to wait for the people who can't and/or won't get vaccinated to gain immunity the hard way.

Or we can just make them suffer the consequences of not being vaccinated.

If we reach herd immunity by having enough vaccinated, the virus will die out. If we don't, it won't go away, and we'll have to deal with new variants and possibly get new vaccinations to deal with the new variants.

I'm not living in a deprecated state for years longer because some QAnon/RFK Jr types think vaccines are a conspiracy. They want to spread it among themselves and die from it, that's their choice. To paraphrase a famous Soviet boxer, "if they die, they die".

[kphoger]

I'm not living in a deprecated state for years longer because some QAnon/RFK Jr types think vaccines are a conspiracy.

Right.  That's the only reason anyone doesn't get a vaccine.

[jakeroot]

I know quite a lot of people playing the "wait and see" game, but few of them have actually indicated to me when they plan to get it. I'm not sure at what point they'll feel comfortable.

My guess is that they're secretly hoping COVID will die out before they need to get it. But it seems there may be too many people playing the "wait and see" game for COVID to actually die out.

[hotdogPi]

I know quite a lot of people playing the "wait and see" game, but few of them have actually indicated to me when they plan to get it. I'm not sure at what point they'll feel comfortable.

My guess is that they're secretly hoping COVID will die out before they need to get it. But it seems there may be too many people playing the "wait and see" game for COVID to actually die out.

Before I was convinced to get it early (I'm still not eligible yet), I decided I would be one of the last adults to get it, since I'm only 22 years old. If I had kept that plan, I would have gotten it after most other people, but I did have a definite plan.

[jakeroot]

I know quite a lot of people playing the "wait and see" game, but few of them have actually indicated to me when they plan to get it. I'm not sure at what point they'll feel comfortable.

My guess is that they're secretly hoping COVID will die out before they need to get it. But it seems there may be too many people playing the "wait and see" game for COVID to actually die out.

Before I was convinced to get it early (I'm still not eligible yet), I decided I would be one of the last adults to get it, since I'm only 22 years old. If I had kept that plan, I would have gotten it after most other people, but I did have a definite plan.

I was in the same boat until I learned about my tribal health authority offering it to all ages back in January. But I'm more concerned about those who have been eligible under an earlier phase but declined to accept the vaccine as they'd rather wait to see how it plays out. I'd love to know when those people will be comfortable getting the vaccine.

[JayhawkCO]

I'm selfish and wanted to get my vaccine as quickly as possible.  Obviously I was going to wait for the other priority groups (who I agree should have gotten it long before me), but I don't feel the need to wait if the government says I don't have to. 

I was never all that concerned about what would happen if I got it since I'm healthy, but I just would feel terrible if I got it, passed it along to someone else, and they had a serious reaction. Now I don't have to have that concern nearly as much.

Chris

[J N Winkler]

I know quite a lot of people playing the "wait and see" game, but few of them have actually indicated to me when they plan to get it. I'm not sure at what point they'll feel comfortable.

My guess is that they're secretly hoping COVID will die out before they need to get it. But it seems there may be too many people playing the "wait and see" game for COVID to actually die out.

When the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines first received emergency use authorization, I set September 30, 2021 (end of the third quarter of this year) as an earliest date to seek vaccination, for the following reasons:

*  I expected manufacturers to have much more difficulty ramping up production than seems to have been the case, and was very pessimistic about getting even half of the US population vaccinated by the end of 2021.  We may still not reach herd immunity this year (or ever), but if we fail, it won't be because of supply constraints.

*  I had no medical or occupational claim to priority, the most common underlying condition I don't share being BMI in excess of 25 (applies to 65% of Americans).

*  I didn't want to spend much of 2021 in a cloud of impatience waiting for vaccine to be available.

*  To keep waiting to a minimum, I preferred to engage with the process once demand had slackened after an initial wave.

So, by having my first shot on March 27, I have acted a full six months earlier than I expected.  At the time I booked it, I did not know that the Osage tribal clinic in Pawhuska, Oklahoma had started taking all comers on March 11.  If I had, I would willingly have made the 240-mile round trip twice for the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

There are three reasons I don't feel guilty about receiving vaccination earlier than called for in most of the prioritization schemes.

*  Refusal rates have been high among earlier priority groups.

*  I felt, and still feel, that I needed to start the vaccination process ASAP to counterbalance the elevated risk from covid variants and from governments prematurely dismantling nonpharmaceutical interventions (such as mask mandates).

*  I had no interest in receiving the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, and it was easier to avoid when it still formed only a small fraction of the available supply.

[hbelkins]

There's no option for J&J people like me? I got mine prior to Grp 3. PM me if you like the proof.

I suppose you could choose the option for already having gotten both shots, since that's the functional equivalent of your situation.

At the time the poll was created, the J&J shot was not yet available. If you've already taken it, you wouldn't be wrong in saying you plan to take it when it becomes available.

Variants are the main reason I suspect we may need more than one round of vaccination and that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent.

See, I agree that a plausible safe endpoint for mask wearing is not imminent, but would put forth an entirely different reason why: the percentage of the population in the US that is both able and willing to get vaccinated against covid is insufficient to render it as minor a public health threat as other diseases we don't generally worry much about due to vaccines. Masks in public ceasing to be warranted will thus have to wait for the people who can't and/or won't get vaccinated to gain immunity the hard way.

Or we can just make them suffer the consequences of not being vaccinated.

If we reach herd immunity by having enough vaccinated, the virus will die out. If we don't, it won't go away, and we'll have to deal with new variants and possibly get new vaccinations to deal with the new variants.

There seems to be this paranoid school of thought that everyone who doesn't get vaccinated will get covid. I'm not sure why people think that. I've never taken a flu shot, and I've never had the flu. There's no reason for me to think that I'll get covid just because I don't take the shot.

[hotdogPi]

There seems to be this paranoid school of thought that everyone who doesn't get vaccinated will get covid. I'm not sure why people think that. I've never taken a flu shot, and I've never had the flu. There's no reason for me to think that I'll get covid just because I don't take the shot.

The percentage vaccinated matters a lot more than whether any specific person gets it or not. If at least ≈75% get the shot (we don't know the exact number), we can return to normal life (maybe not immediately – if it's barely above the threshold, it will decrease slowly, but at least it won't increase). If at least 25% (using the prior number as an example) say "I'm not getting the shot because I'm not going to get COVID", the virus will continue to spread.

[kphoger]

So then, what is your expectation if we assume that the threshold (whatever number it is) will never be reached in America?  Never return to normal?

[hotdogPi]

So then, what is your expectation if we assume that the threshold (whatever number it is) will never be reached in America?  Never return to normal?

Getting COVID counts as being immune unless the variants diverge too far. If they do diverge, we could see it being like the seasonal flu, but I don't expect that to happen.

Typically, when a virus is required to mutate in order to survive, it becomes less deadly.

Also keep in mind that the 1918 flu lasted until 1920, and it hasn't been two years yet.

[NWI_Irish96]

So then, what is your expectation if we assume that the threshold (whatever number it is) will never be reached in America?  Never return to normal?

If we never reach herd immunity, then eventually we get a vaccine-resistant variant, and we're in pretty big trouble then.

[snowc]

Wake County pauses J&J vaccine clinic at PNC Arena. At 4, WRAL explains why and how many people were affected – After "several" people had adverse reactions Thursday to Johnson & Johnson vaccines delivered at Raleigh's PNC Arena, Wake County put a halt to vaccinations there "in an abundance of caution," spokeswoman Stacy Beard said. Beginning at 4, WRAL gets answers to what's next for those with appointments.

Here we go again... 🙄

[kphoger]

So then, what is your expectation if we assume that the threshold (whatever number it is) will never be reached in America?  Never return to normal?

If we never reach herd immunity, then eventually we get a vaccine-resistant variant, and we're in pretty big trouble then.

So is that a yes?  (not to imply you're the one I originally asked the question)

[J N Winkler]

So then, what is your expectation if we assume that the threshold (whatever number it is) will never be reached in America?  Never return to normal?

As time passes and we gain more experience with the disease, I expect management strategies to evolve.  I certainly don't think it is a given that we will have to wear masks indefinitely, or that public health authorities will default to recommending mask wearing (in the teeth of widespread noncompliance) as the main mechanism for preventing spread.  So, yes, I think we will return to normal in some form.  My main concern about vaccine hesitancy is not that we will fail to reach herd immunity (a goal which I am not sure is achievable in the first place), but rather that a low vaccination percentage will tie us to worse outcomes in terms of a return to pre-2019 conditions.

I also continue to stand by my prediction upthread that we won't use vaccine passports.  I think it is much more likely that business models that rely on congregation will be defended through indemnification.  For example, if you choose to watch a movie in the theatre, your ticket may be sold subject to the condition that you don't sue the cinema chain if you catch covid on the premises.

[kphoger]

I think it is much more likely that business models that rely on congregation will be defended through indemnification.  For example, if you choose to watch a movie in the theatre, your ticket may be sold subject to the condition that you don't sue the cinema chain if you catch covid on the premises.

I'm sure that, if such things happen, they won't single out COVID specifically–rather, any illness.

[NWI_Irish96]

So then, what is your expectation if we assume that the threshold (whatever number it is) will never be reached in America?  Never return to normal?

If we never reach herd immunity, then eventually we get a vaccine-resistant variant, and we're in pretty big trouble then.

So is that a yes?  (not to imply you're the one I originally asked the question)

If we never reach herd immunity we shouldn't return to normal but given that some states essentially have already returned to normal or very close to it, that's not what will happen.