a random discussion of the Phillies

[agentsteel53]

I am sad to say that the holdup is being caused by the junior senator from my home state. Even though I am of the same party as Jim Bunning, I haven't had much use for him for several years. On behalf of the Commonwealth of Kentucky, I apologize for his petulant act. If I see any of you this spring or summer, remind me to tell you about Bunning. I won't junk up this board with political stuff.

but hey he did throw a perfect game in 1964. Those '64 Phillies - quite a team, especially given the way they finished the season.  I believe Jim Bunning took lessons from that experience and has sought to emulate his political career based on the successes he experienced in late September of '64.  

[mightyace]

I believe Jim Bunning took lessons from that experience and has sought to emulate his political career based on the successes he experienced in late September of '64.  

As a lifelong Phillies fan, all I can say is OUCH!

[agentsteel53]

As a lifelong Phillies fan, all I can say is OUCH!

well, you have 1980 and 2008, and competent showings in 1983 and 2009 (even though, most recently, you let the bastards win - I will forgive you for that oversight, as long as you promise never do do it again ... though given that you did it before in 1950 ... just keep it to once every 49 years and we'll be all right), and in general the core of a team that will contend for many years to come!

(coming from a lifelong Red Sox fan!  I've got 2004 and 2007 and I am happy!   )

[corco]

and in general the core of a team that will contend for many years to come!

Wut? They've got a standard-issue Pat Gillick team (never mind that Ruben Amaro Jr is the general manager now)- largely aging (all their core players are on the wrong side of  30) , not a ton of depth on the farm (Tyson Gillies w00t!), and a lack of understanding for defense (hi Raul Ibanez!). See the 1994-95 Toronto Blue Jays and the 2003-04 Seattle Mariners for comps of what the Phillies are built to be here in a year or two (no later than 2011)- a team full of aging veterans that either collapse or get injured.  

Howard's got an old player skillset, Ibanez is due to collapse... as far as bright spots go you've basically got Rollins/Utley for ~3 more years and then a decent starting pitching staff. The rest of the cupboard is bare.

[agentsteel53]

and you have a guy named Roy Halladay who seems to have the type of makeup to be a competitive fastball pitcher into his 40s (see: Nolan Ryan, Satchel Paige, etc)...

[corco]

Three good players does not a great team make. Halladay's a bright spot, not denying that, but he's the brightest, and that's scary.

[agentsteel53]

Three good players does not a great team make. Halladay's a bright spot, not denying that, but he's the brightest, and that's scary.

how is that scary?  Halladay is a durable #1 pitcher who will, in the NL, likely result in a 2.30 or so ERA next season over 220-240 IP.  If that is your best player, you're doing pretty well!

[corco]

That's a good thing, but when the rest of your team is a bomb of old injury-proneness waiting to explode (hell, the risk is even there with Halladay), that's scary. He can only take the hill once every five days. What happens the other four?

[agentsteel53]

What happens the other four?

Hamels's fundamentals were unchanged between 2008 and 2009; his seemingly inferior stats were mainly the result of a much worse BABIP (which is mostly uncorrelated to actual baseball skills and is a result of luck) - look for him to return to the results he displayed in '08.

and then pray for rain...

[corco]

BABIP is largely related to luck, but also related to defense. As long as you have an Ibanez/Victorino/Werth outfield, I'd expect it to stay that way. Fewer balls in play are being converted into outs in Philadelphia- that's a function of poor fielding just as much as bad luck. Hamels is a remarkable pitcher, but he's not being helped by the team behind him.

[agentsteel53]

BABIP is largely related to luck, but also related to defense. As long as you have an Ibanez/Victorino/Werth outfield, I'd expect it to stay that way. Fewer balls in play are being converted into outs in Philadelphia- that's a function of poor fielding just as much as bad luck. Hamels is a remarkable pitcher, but he's not being helped by the team behind him.

I can agree with you on Ibanez (old player - good for precisely one three-week .360/.480/.620 hot streak per year), but Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino are both 30-31 - therefore in the prime of their careers, which tends to be between ages 27-32 or so.

and what of the infield?  Outfielders have a much easier job of converting fly balls to outs; it is the infield that will be the meat and potatoes of your defense, especially given that your new ace is a groundball pitcher.  

Howard at 1st (competent), Utley at 2nd (who is a once-in-a-generation player, offensively and defensively), Rollins at short (competent)... and I do not know who the starting 3rd baseman will be (been on the road too long to follow the off-season signings); not Feliz that is the last I heard - but still, you have two average defenders and one well-above-average defender....

and don't forget the offensive production that Utley and Howard will bring in.  Howard's good for 45 HR a year; Utley, for .400 OBP... those are not to be discounted.  For every ball that their average defense lets through, they'll clock an extra base hit or work a seven-pitch walk.

[Dougtone]

I am sad to say that the holdup is being caused by the junior senator from my home state. Even though I am of the same party as Jim Bunning, I haven't had much use for him for several years. On behalf of the Commonwealth of Kentucky, I apologize for his petulant act. If I see any of you this spring or summer, remind me to tell you about Bunning. I won't junk up this board with political stuff.

but hey he did throw a perfect game in 1964. Those '64 Phillies - quite a team, especially given the way they finished the season.  I believe Jim Bunning took lessons from that experience and has sought to emulate his political career based on the successes he experienced in late September of '64. 

Bunning threw that perfect game against the Mets, which were an awful team in 1964, and a team that is currently in worse shape than the government.  To make matters worse, Mets ownership had money invested in the Madoff ponzi scheme.  As a Mets fan, it saddens me to say that.

[agentsteel53]

the Madoff ponzi scheme.

a less well-marketed form of Social Security.

one Ponzi scheme has its originator in jail for what is likely the rest of his life.  The other remains praised by the administration, though even the official letters from Uncle Sam acknowledge that the system is hosed.

"will I get social security payments?"
"we predict that around 2034 we will start to run out, and you will get $760 for every thousand that you put in.  Congratulations, sucker.  Love, your relentless benefactors."

thank you, SS.  I appreciate you telling me exactly which drain my money disappears into.  I find you remarkable in your marketing, for attempting to convince me that a predicted -24% return on my investment is something to look forward to.