Stock Market breaking key resistance levels...

[kphoger]

What was this thread about, again?  Oh yeah, that's right...

[tradephoric]

Here is a graph of previous secular bear markets in the DOW.  Based on previous market contractions, we really haven't seen much pain in the markets yet.

[Duke87]

Re: Scandinavia and general happiness, I do think to some degree you're seeing the same basic concept in action as in the climate theory of political stability.

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are.


As for what the stock market is doing this year, who the hell knows. It's easily conceivable that it could shake this recent correction off and steadily climb back up, finishing the year in the black... it's also conceivable that another selloff could be coming. Or that there won't be a big selloff but that things may gradually start trending down.

Anyone in it for the long run should have course be not reacting to this and continuing to make whatever regular contributions they are going to make because the stock market always goes up over sufficiently long timeframes. People seeking to cash out in the near future, on the other hand, may have more reason to be skiddish.

[kphoger]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

Not me, boy.  I'm usually ready for spring by the time January rolls around.

[US 89]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

[abefroman329]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

Yeah, there are significant parts of Scandinavia that are above the Arctic Circle, after all. I understand that if you're in the military and stationed up there, you get hazard pay. 

[Roadgeekteen]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

I can confirm that to be true. I get a little depressed when it's 4-5 pm and dark.

[webny99]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

I can confirm that to be true. I get a little depressed when it's 4-5 pm and dark.

We are wildly off-topic, but I am just obliged to mention that if you lived at the other end of the EST time zone (Michigan, Indiana), it would be more like 5-6 pm. I'm somewhere in the middle. In fact, our 9 hours of winter daylight align almost perfectly with my 7:30 - 4:30 working hours. For a few weeks, the sun is just rising as I arrive and just setting as I leave.

[Roadgeekteen]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

I can confirm that to be true. I get a little depressed when it's 4-5 pm and dark.

We are wildly off-topic, but I am just obliged to mention that if you lived at the other end of the EST time zone (Michigan, Indiana), it would be more like 5-6 pm. I'm somewhere in the middle. In fact, our 9 hours of winter daylight align almost perfectly with my 7:30 - 4:30 working hours. For a few weeks, the sun is just rising as I arrive and just setting as I leave.

Maybe we should be in the Atlantic time zone.

[hbelkins]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

I can confirm that to be true. I get a little depressed when it's 4-5 pm and dark.

We are wildly off-topic, but I am just obliged to mention that if you lived at the other end of the EST time zone (Michigan, Indiana), it would be more like 5-6 pm. I'm somewhere in the middle. In fact, our 9 hours of winter daylight align almost perfectly with my 7:30 - 4:30 working hours. For a few weeks, the sun is just rising as I arrive and just setting as I leave.

Maybe we should be in the Atlantic time zone.

Haven't we had this discussion before?

[hotdogPi]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

I can confirm that to be true. I get a little depressed when it's 4-5 pm and dark.

We are wildly off-topic, but I am just obliged to mention that if you lived at the other end of the EST time zone (Michigan, Indiana), it would be more like 5-6 pm. I'm somewhere in the middle. In fact, our 9 hours of winter daylight align almost perfectly with my 7:30 - 4:30 working hours. For a few weeks, the sun is just rising as I arrive and just setting as I leave.

Maybe we should be in the Atlantic time zone.

Haven't we had this discussion before?

Yes, except that nobody has suggested that webny99's region would switch to Atlantic until now.

[tradephoric]

I modified the chart above to show roughly 2 years of price action leading up to the top of each market (left side of the chart) and 2 years of price action once the top was formed (right side of the chart).  The legend shows the exact date of the each top (the top in 2001 actually formed a year prior but the major downtrend didn't begin until 2001).  The similarities of 1987 to 1929 are quite interesting... they both had the biggest run up leading to the top and the largest initial crash. 



IMO, the current price action in the DJIA resembles that from 2007.  I adjusted the current market top by 15 trading days to show just how similarly the price action has been in recent months to the previous crash. 

[Roadgeekteen]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

I can confirm that to be true. I get a little depressed when it's 4-5 pm and dark.

We are wildly off-topic, but I am just obliged to mention that if you lived at the other end of the EST time zone (Michigan, Indiana), it would be more like 5-6 pm. I'm somewhere in the middle. In fact, our 9 hours of winter daylight align almost perfectly with my 7:30 - 4:30 working hours. For a few weeks, the sun is just rising as I arrive and just setting as I leave.

Maybe we should be in the Atlantic time zone.

Haven't we had this discussion before?

Yes, except that nobody has suggested that webny99's region would switch to Atlantic until now.

I said we inferring to my region, not to me and webny.

[wxfree]

Having to deal with heat makes people cranky. The cooler the climate, the happier people are

But the farther north you are, the less sun you get. Lack of sun in winter makes people depressed.

I can confirm that to be true. I get a little depressed when it's 4-5 pm and dark.

We are wildly off-topic, but I am just obliged to mention that if you lived at the other end of the EST time zone (Michigan, Indiana), it would be more like 5-6 pm. I'm somewhere in the middle. In fact, our 9 hours of winter daylight align almost perfectly with my 7:30 - 4:30 working hours. For a few weeks, the sun is just rising as I arrive and just setting as I leave.

Maybe we should be in the Atlantic time zone.

Haven't we had this discussion before?

That depends on your time zone.  For some of us, this discussion is still in the future.

[ce929wax]

I live on the other side of the Eastern Time Zone (Michigan) and I still battle depression this time of year even though it is still twilight at 6.  It isn't so much the early sunset, as it is the lack of sunshine, although today was a nice day.

[tradephoric]

Support has now become resistance.  The market broke below the February 2017 lows in December and this week will be key in seeing if the market can break back above those February lows.  Powell's lip service, along with a blowout jobs number, helped propel the markets higher on Friday and we will see if those gains continue into next week.  My take is Powell is going to stand pat on rate hikes in March.  I know everyone says the Fed is independent but Powell saw what the markets did after the fed hike... it's easy for him to come up with some excuse why the fed isn't raising rates in March.  But the fed's guidance calls for a few rate hikes in 2019, so he'll probably try to sneak one in during the June meeting.  That to me is when the market starts to roll over again.  There's always the chance we do shoot up like a rocket from here (just like happened in the 1962, 1987, and 2015 bear markets) but i believe the downside risk is higher than the upside at this point.

[tradephoric]

The market recently bounced higher after testing the 200-week moving average (red line in charts). The good thing is it hasn't broken the 200-week moving average yet.  There are several examples where the S&P 500 tested the 200-week MA only to bounce higher (1962, 1987, 1990 & 2015).  This is the best case scenario moving forward:



However, there are also times when the market broke down after testing the 200- week moving average.  The most obvious examples are 2001 and 2008.  A lot of the bear markets during 1966-1982 aren't included in these charts.  While the market essentially traded sideways during this time-frame, runaway inflation during the 70s really masked any significant losses in the market. This is the worst case scenario moving forward:



So what do you guys think.  Is this market going to continue higher like 2016 or crash like 2008?

[formulanone]

So what do you guys think.  Is this market going to continue higher like 2016 or crash like 2008?

My Dow Jones plan has it peaking at around 29,000 and then going down a little to bypass Yellowstone National Park. Except it's called the 366 Industrials while servicing Canada and Mexico.

[US 89]

So what do you guys think.  Is this market going to continue higher like 2016 or crash like 2008?

My Dow Jones plan has it peaking at around 29,000 and then going down a little to bypass Yellowstone National Park. Except it's called the 366 Industrials while servicing Canada and Mexico.

Per obscure bylaws, it may not rise or fall more than 85 points in a day. Except when it does.

[tradephoric]

It's almost spooky how closely the market is coorelating to early 2008 right now. Over the past month you can literally trade the market on a day-by-day basis by looking at the price action from the DOW in early 2008.  If history is any indication, we are looking at -700 point drop on Wednesday of this week (and a relatively flat day tomorrow).

[TheHighwayMan3561]

It's almost spooky how closely the market is coorelating to early 2008 right now. Over the past month you can literally trade the market on a day-by-day basis by looking at the price action from the DOW in early 2008.  If history is any indication, we are looking at -700 point drop on Wednesday of this week (and a relatively flat day tomorrow).

Because your prediction right before Christmas about the worst day in the history of the markets was spot on too. 

[tradephoric]

Because your prediction right before Christmas about the worst day in the history of the markets was spot on too. 

I'll give you that!  While the day of that prediction was a down day, it was nowhere near the worst points loss in the history of the markets.  OTOH, on Christmas Day i made the call that a short term bottom would occur in the markets at 11AM on December 26th.  After opening higher that day (which was a surprise to me) the DOW got totally slammed in morning trading before bottoming out at 21,712 at 10:54 AM.  At 11AM it turned on a dime and skyrocketting about 1,200 points into the close.  I was literally 6 minutes off from calling a short term bottom in this market and it resembled that V-shaped trading day i predicted.  In addition, i first posted a correlation chart of the current market with the 2008 market back on November 20th.  Since that time, the current market has traded in lockstep with the 2008 market (look at the "Current DJIA to 2008 DJIA" chart above in this thread to see how close the correlation has been).

[kphoger]

My Dow Jones plan has it peaking at around 29,000 and then going down a little to bypass Yellowstone National Park. Except it's called the 366 Industrials while servicing Canada and Mexico.

Per obscure bylaws^[1], it may not rise or fall more than 85 points in a day. Except when it does.

Edited to add citation.

[tradephoric]

Here is a chart of every bear market in the DOW since WWII (and 1929 for good measure).  It's kind of a jumbled up mess but there are some interesting observations to be made.  If you sold roughly 6 months after a market top, you were able to buy back into the market about 12-15 months from the market top at a lower level.  The only times this wasn't the case was in 1962, 1990, and 1998.  For the markets that really dropped, this strategy would protect you from significant market losses and you still don't lose out on that much during the fake-outs.

[Brandon]

So what do you guys think.  Is this market going to continue higher like 2016 or crash like 2008?

My Dow Jones plan has it peaking at around 29,000 and then going down a little to bypass Yellowstone National Park. Except it's called the 366 Industrials while servicing Canada and Mexico.

Per obscure bylaws, it may not rise or fall more than 85 points in a day. Except when it does.

The Alanland Mercantile Exchange (AllMerEgg)?