The Sears catalogue model was the low-tech spitting image of what the Amazon model became. All Sears had to do was transfer it to online in the 1990s and they might be at least holding their own against Walmart today.
Had they kept the catalog just 3 more years they could have made a seamless (for the time) transition. 1992 was the last year of the Big Book.
They essentially did try with Prodigy Online. It was WAY too soon for online retail to be viable and it flopped. Sears and IBM pulled their money out of Prodigy Online in 1997.
I think it was 1993 when Sears discontinued the catalog. And it was only 4 years later when they launched Sears.com on the WWW. Bad timing to say the least.
Yes, the downfall of Sears is inexcusable. Even with all the blunders they had made in the 80s/90s, they could have been resurrected in the last 15-20 years to become something like what Target has become for instance, but Eddie Lampert and to some extent, Alan Lacy (the last CEO before Eddie bought them) ran them into the ground.
I still think Walmart and Amazon would have surpassed Sears even if they had successfully reinvented themselves and moved their catalog business online, but at least Sears would be a solid #3 and a decent quality alternative to the Amazon/Walmart duopoly.
The shareholders would not tolerate any changes to their dividends to help fund the needed changes. It all had to come out of operational margins.
This would have worked in the 1970's when Sears was a cash flow engine. and into the early 80's. But they spent a lot of excess capital acquiring other non-strategic entities. Entities they later had to sell off as per store profits started their long term decline in the late 80's.
Sears management tried and tried many times in the early 90's to cut the dividend so they could recapitalize their target markets and all of the pension funds refused to permit it. Wall Street had become risk adverse.
Former Sears leadership took over Home Depot because the Sears BOD refused to buy them. By the time the BOD approved the Sears Grand Central concept to compete with Wal-Mart, it was too little too late. The concept was a hit, but again, they couldn't put the capital together to execute it and they were all closed.
The list goes on ad-infinitum.
So instead of going through all of these so called "transformational changes" like AT&T does (and fool people over and over) every few years to keep Wall Street happy, Sears wasn't compelled to play the same silly game AT&T does to keep Wall Street at bay.
The list of worthless attempts at buys outs, mergers and new markets by AT&T is totally ridiculous, but Wall Street loves them because their churn looks like growth. But when you look at the list over the past 30 years, it has really become nothing but moving pieces around.
They haven't created anything.
If Sears had played the same game, they would have merged and spun off with several companies just like AT&T did. All to prop up that almighty dividend.