Most aged 18-34 would rather have a smartphone/computer (65%) than a car (35%)

[AlexandriaVA]

I wouldn't get too much down the road of the car vs smartphone debate. A car is merely a tool. Some tools, such as toilets, are timeless. Others, such as the telegraph are not. Time will tell how and if the car lasts.

Given that the car merely replaced the horse and horse and wagon/buggy, I'd say it's here to stay.  The telegraph was very limited in what it could do, and was outdone by the phone fairly quickly.  And the phone is also very much here to stay.

I would argue that a car is very limited in what it can do - move people and things over improved surfaces.

Think how much space we've allocated in this country for the storage and mobility of cars. Once airborne delivery of goods via drones becomes common, we'll see how archaic roads and parking lots will seem.

A car is useless when it approaches an unimproved surface, forest, body of water without a bridge or ferry, etc. The only terrain feature that will really matter for a drone will be its landing spots.

Again, the car will seem simple and limited in its capabilities. People will wonder what it was like not being able to deliver goods or services to areas un-served by roads.

[corco]

I'd also argue that the phone is quickly becoming obsolete - smartphones are not phones in the sense we think of them, they're a computer with the ability to send and receive voice communication.  If you went back to 1950 and showed people a smartphone and asked them to give it a name, I doubt very much that the word "phone" would be in that name.

Once we move away from the current physical phone infrastructure to, say, satellites, there will be nothing left of the original "telephone" - we'll have something that can do the same thing as a phone in a completely different way, but also do a whole lot more.

Whatever replaces cars will likely do the same thing - provide the ability to travel whenever/wherever, but may in no other way be a "car" as we know it.

[Duke87]

In the sense of being able to travel wherever/whenever, you're essentially describing teleportation. Which interestingly also would mean replacing physical infrastructure with wireless methods.

Someday, perhaps, but we've barely figured out how to teleport particles in a lab. Teleporting people, if it's even physically possible, is a long way off.

Given that teleportation technically involves destroying the original and then creating a perfect copy elsewhere, I've speculated that it might not be possible to teleport any living thing and have it come out the other end still alive, that the process might unavoidably kill the subject. We don't really understand what makes a living thing live as opposed to just being an inanimate pile of flesh, so who knows.

[AlexandriaVA]

In the sense of being able to travel wherever/whenever, you're essentially describing teleportation. Which interestingly also would mean replacing physical infrastructure with wireless methods.

Someday, perhaps, but we've barely figured out how to teleport particles in a lab. Teleporting people, if it's even physically possible, is a long way off.

Given that teleportation technically involves destroying the original and then creating a perfect copy elsewhere, I've speculated that it might not be possible to teleport any living thing and have it come out the other end still alive, that the process might unavoidably kill the subject. We don't really understand what makes a living thing live as opposed to just being an inanimate pile of flesh, so who knows.

Not describing that at all. Merely described a means of transportation superior to the car. Namely, the vehicle is not limited to a roadway.

Besides, I'm too much of a fan of Dr McCoy to endorse teleportation.

[nexus73]

40 years from now when these younger folks are older and have money to spend on fun things, there won't be as much demand for collector cars but maybe there will be a market for old tech toys!

Rick

[Pete from Boston]

40 years from now when these younger folks are older and have money to spend on fun things, there won't be as much demand for collector cars but maybe there will be a market for old tech toys!

Rick

There's a PCjr in my basement waiting for that day.

[vdeane]

I would argue that a car is very limited in what it can do - move people and things over improved surfaces.

Think how much space we've allocated in this country for the storage and mobility of cars. Once airborne delivery of goods via drones becomes common, we'll see how archaic roads and parking lots will seem.

A car is useless when it approaches an unimproved surface, forest, body of water without a bridge or ferry, etc. The only terrain feature that will really matter for a drone will be its landing spots.

Again, the car will seem simple and limited in its capabilities. People will wonder what it was like not being able to deliver goods or services to areas un-served by roads.

Let's see how much you like drone delivery when that package your ordered or your takeout pizza is shot down by a rogue baseball.

In the sense of being able to travel wherever/whenever, you're essentially describing teleportation. Which interestingly also would mean replacing physical infrastructure with wireless methods.

Someday, perhaps, but we've barely figured out how to teleport particles in a lab. Teleporting people, if it's even physically possible, is a long way off.

Given that teleportation technically involves destroying the original and then creating a perfect copy elsewhere, I've speculated that it might not be possible to teleport any living thing and have it come out the other end still alive, that the process might unavoidably kill the subject. We don't really understand what makes a living thing live as opposed to just being an inanimate pile of flesh, so who knows.

Teleportation by actually "beaming" the matter/energy around... that's hard.  More powerful (because you can filter out weapons and stuff)... but MUCH harder than simply moving the space surrounding the object to be teleported (comparatively very easy, if you have both the power and know the fundamentals of spatial folding and point-to-point wormhole generation).  As such, matter/energy teleportation is rare but spatial teleportation can be quite common depending on the local technological development curve and a species' innate science/technological potential (and a million other factors).

How pervasive it is and how much it displaces other means of travel is largely based on culture and need.  On Earth, where everyone values the destination and hates the journey, and tries to maximize every dollar of profit, teleportation could conceivably replace everything depending on how it's priced.  I don't see that happening though.  It would probably replace air and sea travel (aside from recreation), and maybe long distance car travel, but shorter distances, like commuting, could remain with the car.  Keep in mind that allowing the citizenry unrestricted teleportation would be a national security concern (as well as an undeniable military asset; pervasive enough uses of teleportation could even enable advances such as micro fusion power).

[TravelingBethelite]

Let's see how much you like drone delivery when that package your ordered or your takeout pizza is shot down by a rogue baseball.


[/quote]

*ahem*

That is all.

[noelbotevera]

I'm still 11, I'd desire a car more than a phone. I myself like driving games (seriously, got Euro Truck Simulator 2 about 2 days ago, 17 hours logged in), and want to drive in the future. I know a bit about driving too, so this info is false.

[Pete from Boston]

I'm still 11, I'd desire a car more than a phone. I myself like driving games (seriously, got Euro Truck Simulator 2 about 2 days ago, 17 hours logged in), and want to drive in the future. I know a bit about driving too, so this info is false.

I hope you get some kind of running shoes or something to break up the sitting in the car and the sitting in front of the TV for 17 hours.

Good habits early and all that.  Many people over 30 view your generation as never getting exercise unless forced.

[slorydn1]

As someone who is above the cutline of this survey (46) I have a question to ask: Why do I have to choose? Can't I have my cake and eat it, too?

Our little slice of the generations (end of the Baby Boomers, beginning of the Gen X) were the first to have daily access to video games and computers as teenagers, and cell phones as young adults. We are now middle age (so probably considered ancient by the respondents in this survey) and I can tell you that most of my friends and colleagues would say they wouldn't want to give up either of these things.

I had my first bag-phone that stayed in the car at all times at 26. I had my first personal carry cell phone at 33. I got my first somewhat smart phone at 40 (a Crackberry as we called them). I now have a truly capable smart phone (for the last 3 years) and find it to be indispensable, for many of the reasons that Scott addressed.

That said, I could in no way shape or form live without a car. That was the case in the 80's when I lived in Schaumburg IL and commuted to high school in downtown Chicago and it's the case now that I live in podunk eastern NC. For us, and those that came before us, the car is an extension of our home, or rather our home on wheels. The sooner we are back inside the familiar cocoon of our car, we are really home, even if we have to drive an hour to get to our actual residence, if that makes any sense.
It gives us, an admittedly false, sense of security that a train or bus just can't convey.....

I guess if I had to absolutely choose between one or the other, I would keep the car and do without the smartphone. But only as a last resort, there are other things I would give up first (TV comes to mind).

[MikeTheActuary]

Re Smartphones -- When I went with my father to get a new phone (we couldn't get a replacement battery for his old flip phone any more), I realized that it's somewhat more difficult than you might expect to get a dumbphone.

For me, my smartphone is a multifunction device.  It's what I use to read or listen to news, I have a rather large library of ebooks (dating back to the days when I carried a PDA and a candybar phone), it's handy for keeping my calendar, and it enables me to take short trips without toting a computer.  (And, if I need to use a computer...I can remote into one from my phone.)  I mostly don't do social media or instant messaging, however.

I could do all that without my smartphone...but it would be less convenient, require more "things", etc.

While I'm above the age break used...even though I live in exurbia, I actually can get by without a car.   A couple of years ago, I managed to go a full month without driving my car (admittedly because it had problems)....but I telecommute, I live in an area where grocery delivery is available, and I did have to rent a car a couple of times (once because I couldn't bear the thought of relying on cabs to go car shopping).

Despite that, i think it would be more inconvenient to not have a car than it would be to not have a smartphone....but I could see situations (mostly involving living someplace with robust public transportation) where that would not be the case.

[kkt]

I don't see it as a choice either.  A base ipad mini is only about $300.  That won't go very far when you're car shopping.

[vdeane]

While the base costs don't compare, the costs of a data plan vs. car insurance does, especially for a young person.

[The Nature Boy]

While the base costs don't compare, the costs of a data plan vs. car insurance does, especially for a young person.

My car insurance is like twice the cost of my data plan.

[froggie]

While the base costs don't compare, the costs of a data plan vs. car insurance does, especially for a young person.

Nature Boy beat me to it, but I'd argue that those don't compare either, especially for the pre-25 crowd.

[ET21]

I have both 

[vdeane]

Lucky you.  I can't afford to have both.  My car insurance runs about $90-100 or so a month when broken out that way (I'm billed twice a year).  My monthly cell phone bill is $43, and keep in mind that I don't have a data plan; that's just 700 minutes (outside of Verizon's network during weekdays; I have unlimited within Verizon and on nights/weekends) and unlimited texting.  I would expect that to go up quite substantially if I added a data plan, especially if I added one large enough to cover typical 20-something usage of a smartphone.

I'm aware that other networks are cheaper, but my parents are on Verizon, and none of the other carriers sans AT&T (which isn't cheaper) are nearly as reliable, which is an issue for a roadgeek (and a DOT employee who goes out in the field occasionally); I can't just say "they work OK in my area so I don't care if the network is small or calls frequently drop out" (or if the service is junk, which seems to be true of most MVNOs).  Basically, you pay a premium if you want customer service that doesn't screw you over (seriously, some of the MVNO horror stories I've read are REALLY bad; I'm talking about customers that lose their phone numbers because someone doesn't know what they're talking about) and a phone that works in most of the US and Canada.

[Pete from Boston]

You're most of the way to a reasonable data allowance even at $43.  For folks with $100/month insurance (as others have said, that's quite a deal for a young driver in the northeast) it's pretty doable.

Before cell phones, people who had cars still paid a chunk of change on phone lines.  Even those in their twenties.  With inflation, cell phone rates aren't much more.  We're talking proverbial nickels and dimes here.

[vdeane]

If I wanted to add 1 GB of data, I'd have to pay another $20/month.  Most young people probably use closer to 3 GB, which is significantly more.

It's amazing how many discounts you can get when you got a 4.0 through high school and college and have a perfect driving record (no tickets, no reported accidents).

There are, of course, other costs to having the car.  I estimate I spend $500/month  once maintenance and car payments (currently lease payments, then loan payments when I buy out the lease next year).  I'm not exactly made of money.  I also have to pay $315/month for student loans for the next eight years and my rent is higher than many peoples mortgage payments.  I'm also trying to put as much money as I can into an emergency fund, as you never know when a government deficit or agency restructure can cause jobs to be cut.  Put simply, I have no idea how people afford smartphones.

[Rothman]

  I estimate I spend $500/month  once maintenance and car payments (currently lease payments, then loan payments when I buy out the lease next year). 

You including gas in that figure?  Seems really, really high.

[jeffandnicole]

  I estimate I spend $500/month  once maintenance and car payments (currently lease payments, then loan payments when I buy out the lease next year). 

You including gas in that figure?  Seems really, really high.

The IRS's standard mileage reimbursement rate was 57.5 cents per mile in 2015, which will reimburse one for the fixed and variable costs of operating an automobile, including depreciation, insurance, repairs, tires, maintenance, gas and oil.   If someone driving approximately 1,000 miles per month, the average cost of owning a vehicle comes to about $575 a month.

So, based on V's estimate, she's estimating she actually spends less than the average!  Her figure isn't high at all.

[Rothman]

  I estimate I spend $500/month  once maintenance and car payments (currently lease payments, then loan payments when I buy out the lease next year). 

You including gas in that figure?  Seems really, really high.

The IRS's standard mileage reimbursement rate was 57.5 cents per mile in 2015, which will reimburse one for the fixed and variable costs of operating an automobile, including depreciation, insurance, repairs, tires, maintenance, gas and oil.   If someone driving approximately 1,000 miles per month, the average cost of owning a vehicle comes to about $575 a month.

So, based on V's estimate, she's estimating she actually spends less than the average!  Her figure isn't high at all.

Sounds like the $500/mo. is an average, then -- an average that I wonder if it's the proper summary measure for  the data, given that you're not replacing tires (a notable expense) or conducting major maintenance every month, or even every year.

[Pete from Boston]

My smartphone saves me enough money in a month to pay for a reasonable data plan.  I think most smartphone users would say the flexibility and opportunity provided by the data plan is a bargain, but I'm talking about monetizable, quantifiable savings.  Last month it paid for itself one transaction.  It's the single biggest improvement in travel of any kind in my lifetime (take that, E-ZPass).

We all have to weigh our priorities, but the smartphone to me is an investment that pays handsomely.

[vdeane]

How does a smartphone save money?  The only way I can think is if one replaced a car or taxi with Uber or transit.