Interstate 87 (NC-VA)

[Beltway]

Exactly!!!  NC has two ports that have been dredged or are in the process of being dredged to accommodate the largest container vessels -- Wilmington and Morehead City.  The first features ample rail and Interstate service, which may be enhanced when and if I-74 or a child route extends from the west; the second is the basic raison d'etre for I-42.  But they're relatively new ports without long-term pedigree; Wilmington exports more than it imports (export tobacco accounts for much of that), and Morehead is, to most overseas corporations, an unknown factor as of yet.  It is more than likely that the "Big Three" of southern seaboard ports: Norfolk, Charleston, and Savannah -- will split the lion's share of inbound traffic, as they are established facilities with a proven track record.  In time, the NC ports will get their share (particularly if they engage in competition re pricing), but for the foreseeable future, it's likely that overseas shippers will prefer the known quantity.  Thus northeast NC, which wishes to recast itself as a major national distribution hub, has elected to enhance the corridor between the nearest established port facility and themselves.  Also, it's widely understood that the presence of an Interstate trunk is a benchmark necessity for regions to attract warehouse/distribution facilities of overseas corporations.  Thus with I-87 the eastern region of NC is simply hedging its bets -- by providing a maximally efficient road corridor to a port with ample capacity plus a proven record (Norfolk), that region is demonstrating that it's up to the task of functioning as a commercial hub.  To the interests in that region, it's just good business! 

Except they can't make a decision on what roads are built in other states, or make assumptions about them.  Major highways should not be built on one-dimensional justifications.

The Port of Virginia already has an extensive highway and railroad system connecting to the west and northwest of the port, with warehouses and distribution centers.

These eastern cities have large established ports -- Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Brunswick, Savannah, Charleston, Hampton Roads, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Providence, Boston, Portland.  Panamax imports will be well distributed among them, not to mention at least 7 ports on the Gulf of Mexico.

[sparker]

In that case, NC will just build the corridor up to the state line and let it go at that -- and let VA take flack from road users pissing & moaning about being held up at traffic lights on Dominion (probably nary a peep about the swamp section of US 17 unless a few major traffic accidents -- like T-bones -- occur as a result of cross traffic).  I suppose if VA agrees to post "TO I-87" trailblazers along US 17 and its approaches that would be a reasonable interim situation until such time as upgrades are approved and constructed.  But I don't see VA reluctance quashing the NC portion of the project; to its backers, there's too much at stake to throw in the towel; its not unlikely that their plan calls for doing what they can on their side of the playing field and then applying continuous pressure on the VA actors until (a) a change in attitude occurs over time within VA transportation circles or (b) in time VDOT and cohorts capitulate just so they don't have to deal with a constant barrage of entreaties from south of the border. 

The word should, ensconced in a priori conceptualizations as it is, has little or no value in today's hyper-utilitarian world of transportation planning & policy.  Relatively few agencies or interests can afford to disregard the doable simply because it isn't optimal.  This corridor certainly fits that category -- believe me, if I were planning a SE Interstate-grade outlet from Hampton Roads US 17 would be, well, about my 3rd or 4th choice.  But if that's where the funding is headed, then the die has indeed been cast.  There might be consequences for VA if they don't follow through -- then, again, those may well prove to be minimal.  So be prepared for construction south of the state line and a shitload of inbound emails, phone calls, and political pressure to the north.  That's the way things seem to be done these days, for better or worse!     

[NJRoadfan]

It would be somewhat amusing if NC is desperate enough to somehow manage to fund VA's portion of the highway upgrades.

[Mapmikey]

ISTM that Virginia is in the position that it can wait for North Carolina to build its portion and then see if it actually brings the additional truck traffic NC thinks will occur.  Then VDOT can upgrade US 17 if the traffic actually materializes that overpowers the 2 remaining stop-lighted intersections.

[Beltway]

ISTM that Virginia is in the position that it can wait for North Carolina to build its portion and then see if it actually brings the additional truck traffic NC thinks will occur.  Then VDOT can upgrade US 17 if the traffic actually materializes that overpowers the 2 remaining stop-lighted intersections.

Those two signalized intersections are on the southern part of the recently widened Dominion Boulevard.  If the need arises in the future then they can build interchanges there.

Sparker seems to be driving really hard on this I-87 proposal.  I wonder that if he isn't on the Eastern NC CoC, then what is he doing differently than if he is on the Eastern NC CoC?

[froggie]

These eastern cities have large established ports -- Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Brunswick, Savannah, Charleston, Hampton Roads, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Providence, Boston, Portland.  Panamax imports will be well distributed among them, not to mention at least 7 ports on the Gulf of Mexico.

Norfolk *MAY* have a leg up and pick up more PANAMAX traffic than most of the others mentioned, given that it and NYC's port approaches are naturally deep.  Norfolk is also regularly dredged to close-to-PANAMAX-size standards because of the aircraft carriers stationed there.

[Beltway]

These eastern cities have large established ports -- Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Brunswick, Savannah, Charleston, Hampton Roads, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Providence, Boston, Portland.  Panamax imports will be well distributed among them, not to mention at least 7 ports on the Gulf of Mexico.

Norfolk *MAY* have a leg up and pick up more PANAMAX traffic than most of the others mentioned, given that it and NYC's port approaches are naturally deep.  Norfolk is also regularly dredged to close-to-PANAMAX-size standards because of the aircraft carriers stationed there.

Nearly all eastern ports meet current Panamax containership standards, 39-40 feet depth.
As the containership fleet is upgraded to larger ships, there are later Panamax stages.
https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch4en/conc4en/uswaterwaysystem.html

Four ports currently meet the later standard for 48-50 foot depth -- Miami, Hampton Roads, Baltimore and NY-NJ.

Other eastern and gulf ports have plans to upgrade to at or near that depth --
https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch1en/appl1en/table_east_coast_port_projects.html

The dredging projects are dynamic and are part of the means of competition for containership traffic.

[sparker]

ISTM that Virginia is in the position that it can wait for North Carolina to build its portion and then see if it actually brings the additional truck traffic NC thinks will occur.  Then VDOT can upgrade US 17 if the traffic actually materializes that overpowers the 2 remaining stop-lighted intersections.

Those two signalized intersections are on the southern part of the recently widened Dominion Boulevard.  If the need arises in the future then they can build interchanges there.

Sparker seems to be driving really hard on this I-87 proposal.  I wonder that if he isn't on the Eastern NC CoC, then what is he doing differently than if he is on the Eastern NC CoC?

FYI, I'm (obviously) not on any NC CoC or is my consultation firm contracted by any NC interests at this time.  I just think that some iteration of a Hampton Roads Interstate-grade corridor providing access to the southwest has been long overdue, considering the growth of both the area and its port facilities.  Couple this with the population and commercial growth of the NC "Research Triangle" and you have an obvious "target" zone for the other end of such a corridor.  Now, again obviously, the corridor doesn't have to directly serve the area; all it needs to do is feed into an existing facility that does so.  If VA had had the wherewithal to promote US 58 as the most efficient of all the corridor possibilities (which it actually is!), a really useful facility would have already been in use -- one that could access I-85 and all the areas along its length, as well as I-95 -- and through the short US 64 section between Raleigh and I-95 originally propos ed and partially signed as I-495 -- the rest of the "Triangle".  But, for various reasons (mainly because it's in Virginia!) that didn't occur.  So, 25 years after it was codified as HPC #13, the corridor (which, IMO, should have used US 13 rather than the less direct US 17) was finally folded into the Interstate compendium.  No, it's not the optimal choice; the corridor as legislated never was to begin with.  But it's there, and NC interests are behind it to the point that it's pretty much a lock for construction over the next 15 years or so (of course, depending upon the whims of in-state politicos).  Attempts to derail this process, absent a viable alternative, would be at best quixotic and a waste of effort.  And I for one applaud any efforts to effect needed corridors; while I would prefer a more efficient alternative, I don't dismiss the imperfect just because it is imperfect.  And considering the proclivities within NC, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see, in the next 20-25 years or so, full development of US 17 between Williamston and Wilmington as an Interstate-grade route -- and at least the northern/I-87 portion of that would have been developed ahead of the inevitable inflationary cycle. 

Let's put it this way -- as someone who's studied this sort of thing for close to a half-century -- and seen the process go through many iterations only to end up as a political football -- any serious attempt to establish a viable Interstate corridor -- albeit often a flawed example -- is something I see as a positive development.  There's not a project across the country of this type of which I've developed a white-hot despising despite shortcomings -- I'm just glad to see activity in the arena -- it's reassuring to see that the whole notion of efficient interregional roadways hasn't been cast aside for ideological or cynical reasons. 

Just as "Beltway" wonders about my motivations here; I also wonder what is happening on their side of the issue -- why the adamant dismissal of this particular corridor.  I can see -- but not agree with -- a postion that the Interstate system doesn't need expansion, and that current roads are adequate for their purposes -- or even a standpoint that requires a degree of vetting of such corridors that only the very most deserving survive the process.  And in a way I can sympathize with those who decry the transformation of the Interstate-designation process from a merit-based approach to one where political considerations more often than not prevail.  But I'm pretty much a utilitarian -- if a corridor is proposed -- and it's not completely gratuitous -- I have to look at it on balance: do the benefits, even those best described as potential, outweigh the negative aspects of the project (raw cost, environmental considerations, etc.).  With I-87, the needle, as I have calculated it, is above center -- while it's a bit rambling in its alignment and doesn't contact any significant metro areas east of the Rocky Mount-Tarboro extended region (its negatives), it does provide that needed link between the two metro areas that it was intended to connect, it achieves a level of developmental efficiency because of the 97 miles of freeway from Raleigh to Williamston (only marginal levels of property acquisition for necessary upgrades) and the fact that much of the remainder of the route can be finalized by upgrading of existing facilities, and even the portion in VA won't be too hard to upgrade.  And it certainly doesn't hurt that it, because of its US 17 routing, can function as an evacuation route in case of hurricanes and/or other regional disasters (not that it can't now, but getting rid of cross traffic would help in this regard).  And it's actually pretty scenic in nice weather (at least the US 17 portion; I've been on it a couple of times).  Not perfect by any means, but on balance not too shabby!  I'm just not one to dismiss the feasible because it isn't perfect.

Now if they could just listen to reason regarding that fucking number....................... 


     

[Beltway]

<<< With I-87, the needle, as I have calculated it, is above center -- while it's a bit rambling in its alignment and doesn't contact any significant metro areas east of the Rocky Mount-Tarboro extended region (its negatives), it does provide that needed link between the two metro areas that it was intended to connect >>>

That is the reason why it effectively does -not- connect Raleigh and Norfolk.  It does not supplant the very capable existing Interstate and interregional route which has SYP improvement projects coming in the near future.

You could say that an Interstate connection already exists, Future I-495, I-95 and I-64.  But that would be a bit absurd to think that traffic would utilize a far out of the way routing.  That is the point!

Southerly routes into N.C. are not feasible for Hampton Roads hurricane evacuation, and are not recommended as that would generally take you toward the storm and/or into areas already impacted by storm damage and flooding.

Hurricane evacuation routes are to the west, northwest and north
https://www.norfolk.gov/DocumentCenter/View/1290

I don't have the "Interstate-itis" that lots of roadgeeks seem to have.  Interstates obviously have their role, and there are some valid proposals for new Interstate routes, but there are also proposals that IMHO are nothing but pork.

[Jmiles32]

Not sure if it would be too late to change the current route or not, but IMO the routing of I-87 should have been Raliegh to Rocky Mount via US-64, then overlaps I-95 for about 60 miles north to Emporia, before finally following/upgrading the US-58 corridor east all the way to Bowers Hill. This is the most direct/quickest route between the two metro areas(assuming the US-13 route is not an option) and by far already the most popular route between them as well. Not only would this interstate become far more attractive to Virginia(as a couple of GOP hopeful candidates have expressed interest in turning the corridor into an interstate already), it would make the interstate definitively east/west, hopefully promoting a name change. As for US-64 east of Rocky Mount, NC could turn that into an X-87 if they really wanted to in order to satisfy northeast NC, while also not having to deal with VA wanting nothing to do with it.

I don't have the "Interstate-itis" that lots of roadgeeks seem to have.  Interstates obviously have their role, and there are some valid proposals for new Interstate routes, but there are also proposals that IMHO are nothing but pork.

With all due respect Beltway, did you not do this?

Part of my highway advocacy efforts will be to submit detailed justifications to VDOT recommending that they pursue designation as Interstate routes on the following.  Good candidates every one.

VA-895 ==> I-895
VA-195 ==> I-195
VA-288 ==> I-695
VA-164 ==> I-164
MLK Fwy segment ==> I-764
VA-267 ==> I-595

[Beltway]

My comment about valid proposals for new Interstate routes, I was meaning new location routes, involving new construction.  Those 6 routes are already built to Interstate standards and are already in functional roles as auxiliary Interstate routes.  IMHO anyhow.

[Jmiles32]

My comment about valid proposals for new Interstate routes, I was meaning new location routes, involving new construction.  Those 6 routes are already built to Interstate standards and are already in functional roles as auxiliary Interstate routes.  IMHO anyhow.

Ok thanks for the clarification and agreed^

[michealbond]

Not sure if it would be too late to change the current route or not, but IMO the routing of I-87 should have been Raliegh to Rocky Mount via US-64, then overlaps I-95 for about 60 miles north to Emporia, before finally following/upgrading the US-58 corridor east all the way to Bowers Hill. This is the most direct/quickest route between the two metro areas(assuming the US-13 route is not an option) and by far already the most popular route between them as well. Not only would this interstate become far more attractive to Virginia(as a couple of GOP hopeful candidates have expressed interest in turning the corridor into an interstate already), it would make the interstate definitively east/west, hopefully promoting a name change. As for US-64 east of Rocky Mount, NC could turn that into an X-87 if they really wanted to in order to satisfy northeast NC, while also not having to deal with VA wanting nothing to do with it.

Yea...pretty sure it's already too late for that. Besides, once it's done, it will probably as fast , if not faster to get to Norfolk since it will be completely 70 mph and will avoid the speed traps in the Emporia area. I"m sure the officials in the Emporia area want to keep things as they are, so I"m sure they would fight hard to put an interstate through that area pretty hard.

[froggie]

I"m sure the officials in the Emporia area want to keep things as they are, so I"m sure they would fight hard to put an interstate through that area pretty hard.

I've conceptualized a routing that would primarily keep such a route in Greensville County (which IMO is a worse jurisdiction for speeding tickets than Emporia itself is).  VDOT and NCDOT could also theoretically build a new-alignment route along the NC/VA 186/SR 671 corridor that would even further avoid Emporia (and could tie into NCDOT plans for some sort of US 158 bypass/realignment near Roanoke Rapids).

Emporia would also have to tread carefully, because outright opposition to an Interstate-grade US 58 would expose them and their police department for the type of speed trapping that most roadgeeks accuse them of doing (but, despite years stationed in Norfolk and traveling through Emporia, I never actually saw or experienced).

[Beltway]

Besides, once it's done, it will probably as fast , if not faster to get to Norfolk since it will be completely 70 mph

No!  It would be about 25 miles longer, do the math, the new route would take considerably more time, and for large trucks with their low fuel mileage there would be a substantial financial penalty as well.

[sparker]

<<< With I-87, the needle, as I have calculated it, is above center -- while it's a bit rambling in its alignment and doesn't contact any significant metro areas east of the Rocky Mount-Tarboro extended region (its negatives), it does provide that needed link between the two metro areas that it was intended to connect >>>

That is the reason why it effectively does -not- connect Raleigh and Norfolk.  It does not supplant the very capable existing Interstate and interregional route which has SYP improvement projects coming in the near future.

You could say that an Interstate connection already exists, Future I-495, I-95 and I-64.  But that would be a bit absurd to think that traffic would utilize a far out of the way routing.  That is the point!

Southerly routes into N.C. are not feasible for Hampton Roads hurricane evacuation, and are not recommended as that would generally take you toward the storm and/or into areas already impacted by storm damage and flooding.

Hurricane evacuation routes are to the west, northwest and north
https://www.norfolk.gov/DocumentCenter/View/1290

I don't have the "Interstate-itis" that lots of roadgeeks seem to have.  Interstates obviously have their role, and there are some valid proposals for new Interstate routes, but there are also proposals that IMHO are nothing but pork.

I wasn't thinking of hurricane-evacuation routes out of Hampton Roads -- more like evacuation routes from NE NC either into the Roads or SW toward Williamston and the US 64 segment of the I-87 corridor, which presumably would be single-direction during such an emergency.  Would be a bit unrealistic to think that the entire population of VA Beach/Chesapeake/Norfolk could be evacuated anywhere in an emergency; there would need to be "shelter in place" plans in order to deal with that type of event. 

I don't have "interstatitis" like some on the forum; I'm simply reasoning that optimally there would have been in place a system (following the format used for the 1968 batch of additions) to regularly assess the network with an eye toward programming and constructing additions as demographic changes occur across the country.  Unfortunately, the Nixonian effort to shove impetus downward to the state level in the early '70's threw the proverbial monkey wrench into any such prospects.  It also insured that politics -- on every level -- would be the driving force behind any future projects -- producing a broad mix of rationales for new Interstate corridor development.  Barring a change in the legislative agendas at both national and state levels to a postition favoring increased expenditures for interregional facilities, all of us are stuck with the system in situ!  Someone somewhere has to see any given corridor proposal as benefiting their constituency -- or, at least as often, their or their constituency's pocketbooks -- to get any project off the ground.  You may not like the prospect of a corridor not standing solely on its own merits as a connector -- but today's reality is twofold: (a) it has to serve as many parties as possible in order to gain political and economic support, and (b) after 61 years, the Interstate system has become its own rationale; to potential overseas investors in the US economy, Interstate=egress.  It's not a game of horseshoes; "leaners" (in this sense, "adequate" non-Interstate freeways or expressways) don't count!  So the prospect of East Carolina transforming into a major East Coast distribution hub has become the driving force for the I-87 corridor alignment as presently planned.  They -- the backers of this corridor in and out of NC state circles -- are the ones with "interstateitis", and they have the wherewithal to polish off at least the in-state portion of the corridor.  As an observer, I'm just acknowledging the realities encountered with just about any corridor project these days.  Even such a worthy connector as I-22 would have been "stuck in the mud", so to speak, until Toyota insisted upon a close Interstate connection as a prerequisite for constructing their Tupelo, MS assembly plant.  Like it or not; for better or worse; yada yada......it is what it is!     

[Beltway]

I wasn't thinking of hurricane-evacuation routes out of Hampton Roads -- more like evacuation routes from NE NC either into the Roads or SW toward Williamston and the US 64 segment of the I-87 corridor, which presumably would be single-direction during such an emergency.  Would be a bit unrealistic to think that the entire population of VA Beach/Chesapeake/Norfolk could be evacuated anywhere in an emergency; there would need to be "shelter in place" plans in order to deal with that type of event. 

If you would look at the site I posted you would see that indeed Virginia does have mass evacuation plans for major hurricanes, which ideally would start 2 or 3 days in advance.

No way that emergency service officials would send evacuees -into- the Hampton Roads area, since the typical hurricane track that hits eastern N.C. will hit southeastern Virginia next.  Westward is the plan, and a US-64 freeway already exists from Williamston westward.

So you are left with a one-dimensional justification for I-87 -- the prospect of possible increases in truck traffic for possible warehouse development in eastern N.C.  That is the definition of -pork-.

[sparker]

So what's new?  Since 1973, almost all Interstate additions (save the ones financed through the Howard-Cramer Act) have had more than a few ounces of pork; that's part & parcel of the system.  Even direct connections such as I-22 and I-49 have had the pot sweetened by the prospects of localized benefit.  Before no-tax/no-spend ideology stuck its head into the mix, this was the modus operandi of Congress regarding domestic projects in and out of the transportation realm.  And, for the most part, it functioned quite smoothly -- representatives had something to point to when they stood for reelection, rather than stir up resentment and even hatred to draw in marginal constituents.  For better or worse, "pork" worked reasonably well to get things done.   

Carla (GF) was looking over my shoulder while I was writing this reply and, prompted by the reference to pork, reminded me that we haven't been over to the Smoking Pig for several weeks for ribs and "wolf turds" (their term for rib ends wrapped in bacon).  So Sunday "date night" venue is now settled.  We'll just have to agree to disagree about the merits of the I-87 (still hate that number!) corridor -- but thanks for the porcine reference!

P.S. -- after finally looking at the Hampton Roads hurricane plan (which, except for the list of evacuation routes and storm-surge diagrams seems pretty vague), it's pretty obvious that besides US 64 westward from Williamston, NC, anyone trying to move NW out of the Outer Banks and Elizabeth City area would likely just head west on US 158.  The sole reason to go north would be if (a) 158 were jammed and (b) northward traffic would eventually head west on 58 or 460, which have greater capacity than the more direct 158 in any case. 

[LM117]

I"m sure the officials in the Emporia area want to keep things as they are, so I"m sure they would fight hard to put an interstate through that area pretty hard.

Emporia would also have to tread carefully, because outright opposition to an Interstate-grade US 58 would expose them and their police department for the type of speed trapping that most roadgeeks accuse them of doing (but, despite years stationed in Norfolk and traveling through Emporia, I never actually saw or experienced).

Lucky you. I just came through the area twice today and US-58 between Emporia and Suffolk was crawling with cops.

[Beltway]

P.S. -- after finally looking at the Hampton Roads hurricane plan (which, except for the list of evacuation routes and storm-surge diagrams seems pretty vague), it's pretty obvious that besides US 64 westward from Williamston, NC, anyone trying to move NW out of the Outer Banks and Elizabeth City area would likely just head west on US 158.  The sole reason to go north would be if (a) 158 were jammed and (b) northward traffic would eventually head west on 58 or 460, which have greater capacity than the more direct 158 in any case. 

Implementation details on what routes to use and when, would vary depending on the storm diameter, category level, track speed, and track itself.  That page is a framework, and the details would be announced thru the media for that particular storm.

[sparker]

P.S. -- after finally looking at the Hampton Roads hurricane plan (which, except for the list of evacuation routes and storm-surge diagrams seems pretty vague), it's pretty obvious that besides US 64 westward from Williamston, NC, anyone trying to move NW out of the Outer Banks and Elizabeth City area would likely just head west on US 158.  The sole reason to go north would be if (a) 158 were jammed and (b) northward traffic would eventually head west on 58 or 460, which have greater capacity than the more direct 158 in any case. 

Implementation details on what routes to use and when, would vary depending on the storm diameter, category level, track speed, and track itself.  That page is a framework, and the details would be announced thru the media for that particular storm.

Yeah -- that page showing the hurricane "eye" coming in from due east was, I thought, a bit presumptive; considering the storm tracks as of late, they'd more likely come in from SSE that in any other direction (after royally screwing the Outer Banks!).  Either way, folks in the Roads would be best off scooting west to higher ground -- since it looks like everything east of the Intracoastal, along with downtown Norfolk, would be inundated with a Class 3 or higher.   You guys have got your hurricanes; we've got our fires -- seems like these days, every region bites it one way or the other weather-wise (gee, I wonder why?). 

On the porcine note -- a while back I was coming through Richmond from the Outer Banks, and stopped at a BBQ place off I-295 at the US 360 interchange at Mechanicsville; it was a block or two east in a strip mall -- and it was damn good!  Can't remember the name of the place (and my receipt has long been flushed) -- if anyone can supply me with the restaurant's name, it would be greatly appreciated (for future reference when I'm in the area). 

[GreenLanternCorps]

P.S. -- after finally looking at the Hampton Roads hurricane plan (which, except for the list of evacuation routes and storm-surge diagrams seems pretty vague), it's pretty obvious that besides US 64 westward from Williamston, NC, anyone trying to move NW out of the Outer Banks and Elizabeth City area would likely just head west on US 158.  The sole reason to go north would be if (a) 158 were jammed and (b) northward traffic would eventually head west on 58 or 460, which have greater capacity than the more direct 158 in any case. 

Implementation details on what routes to use and when, would vary depending on the storm diameter, category level, track speed, and track itself.  That page is a framework, and the details would be announced thru the media for that particular storm.

Yeah -- that page showing the hurricane "eye" coming in from due east was, I thought, a bit presumptive; considering the storm tracks as of late, they'd more likely come in from SSE that in any other direction (after royally screwing the Outer Banks!).  Either way, folks in the Roads would be best off scooting west to higher ground -- since it looks like everything east of the Intracoastal, along with downtown Norfolk, would be inundated with a Class 3 or higher.   You guys have got your hurricanes; we've got our fires -- seems like these days, every region bites it one way or the other weather-wise (gee, I wonder why?). 

On the porcine note -- a while back I was coming through Richmond from the Outer Banks, and stopped at a BBQ place off I-295 at the US 360 interchange at Mechanicsville; it was a block or two east in a strip mall -- and it was damn good!  Can't remember the name of the place (and my receipt has long been flushed) -- if anyone can supply me with the restaurant's name, it would be greatly appreciated (for future reference when I'm in the area).

I can't give you the name, but you can go to the intersection on Google maps and retrace your route, that should get you the name.

[Beltway]

Implementation details on what routes to use and when, would vary depending on the storm diameter, category level, track speed, and track itself.  That page is a framework, and the details would be announced thru the media for that particular storm.

Yeah -- that page showing the hurricane "eye" coming in from due east was, I thought, a bit presumptive; considering the storm tracks as of late, they'd more likely come in from SSE that in any other direction (after royally screwing the Outer Banks!).  Either way, folks in the Roads would be best off scooting west to higher ground -- since it looks like everything east of the Intracoastal, along with downtown Norfolk, would be inundated with a Class 3 or higher.   You guys have got your hurricanes; we've got our fires -- seems like these days, every region bites it one way or the other weather-wise (gee, I wonder why?). 

Sure that graphic was generic, there is great variability in hurricane tracks, and even 4 or 5 days out the NOAA National Hurricane Center official estimates have up to 200 miles of error.  And it's not really an error, it is the difficulty of predicting.

Try Googling "strange hurricane tracks", look at the images.  Possible hurricane tracks into the SE Virginia could range on almost 180 degrees of the compass.  Most common would range somewhere between due north and due west.

[hotdogPi]

Sure that graphic was generic, there is great variability in hurricane tracks, and even 4 or 5 days out the NOAA National Hurricane Center official estimates have up to 200 miles of error.  And it's not really an error, it is the difficulty of predicting.

It is error. Error is uncertainty. You may be referring to mistakes, which do indicate that someone did something wrong.

[Beltway]

Sure that graphic was generic, there is great variability in hurricane tracks, and even 4 or 5 days out the NOAA National Hurricane Center official estimates have up to 200 miles of error.  And it's not really an error, it is the difficulty of predicting.

It is error. Error is uncertainty. You may be referring to mistakes, which do indicate that someone did something wrong.

Well, the dictionary definition of 'error' is --
- a mistake.
synonyms: mistake, inaccuracy, miscalculation, blunder, oversight; fallacy, misconception, delusion; misprint, erratum; informals lip-up, boo-boo, goof 
- the state or condition of being wrong in conduct or judgment.


In any event, the word 'uncertainty' best matches what I was trying to say.