AARoads Forum

Non-Road Boards => Off-Topic => Weather => Topic started by: Interstate 69 Fan on January 16, 2018, 12:08:10 PM

Title: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on January 16, 2018, 12:08:10 PM
Any predictions for the upcoming season?
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Hurricane Rex on January 16, 2018, 09:19:16 PM
Less active than last year. I don't make predictions till May.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: ET21 on January 18, 2018, 02:40:04 PM
Once we see how the upcoming La Nina setup affects the weather for the rest of Winter and Spring, we'll have a better idea of the tropics
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Hurricane Rex on April 17, 2018, 03:05:49 PM
CSU and Accuweater predict slightly above to highly above average season this year.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on April 18, 2018, 02:19:23 PM
CSU and Accuweater predict slightly above to highly above average season this year.

LG-TP260
I’m thinking something like 2017’s activity will occur this year.

Besides, 27 Days until the https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Pacific_hurricane_season (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Pacific_hurricane_season) begins. I have no clue what the predictions are for that season.

Something also to note, Infamous John is on this year’s list, which happens to be my middle name!
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on April 18, 2018, 03:10:05 PM
Im thinking something like 2017s activity will occur this year.

Besides, 27 Days until the 2018 Pacific hurricane season (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Pacific_hurricane_season) begins. I have no clue what the predictions are for that season.

Something also to note, Infamous John is on this years list, which happens to be my middle name!

FTFY. Don't link to mobile Wikipedia.

Please use the thread I created a few years ago.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: US71 on May 23, 2018, 08:32:59 AM
We may be getting our first Tropical Storm (Alberto) around Memorial Day
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: abefroman329 on May 23, 2018, 09:44:50 AM
The other day, I was thinking of how we learned about confidence intervals as part of a finance course in my MBA program.  So I predict that this year's hurricane season will include between 0 and 10,000 hurricanes.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Beltway on May 23, 2018, 11:48:46 AM
CSU and Accuweater predict slightly above to highly above average season this year.

They always do.  Usually are wrong.  Want to create hype.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on May 23, 2018, 12:35:32 PM
We may be getting our first Tropical Storm (Alberto) around Memorial Day

You know that if the CMC model predicts a storm, your getting a storm. I have never seen a CMC model that predicts a storm, and the storm doesnt actually end up forming. Albeit, the CMC intensity on the model is a bit low (It was only saying that Irma last year would only be a minimal TS),.

Conditions ahead of the newly-tagged Invest 90L are pretty favorable, and will remain so. Id give it a 70% chance right now.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on May 24, 2018, 08:40:06 AM
80% officially in 5 days, and the NHC is calling a storm of at least tropical depression strength likely to form.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: US71 on May 24, 2018, 08:47:52 AM
80% officially in 5 days, and the NHC is calling a storm of at least tropical depression strength likely to form.

Most likely Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida will see most of it.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Hurricane Rex on May 25, 2018, 11:05:48 AM
Subtropical storm Alberto has formed.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: ET21 on May 25, 2018, 11:49:40 AM
It has begun lol
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 02, 2018, 02:04:06 PM
Get this African Dust out of here.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: jeffandnicole on August 02, 2018, 02:14:19 PM
Weather people are fun.  These two stories were written in the past 24 hours:

July active month for Atlantic basin, with formation of two hurricanes  (The paper claims 2 is active because normally a hurricane occurs once every two years.  It then goes on to say "August is one of the most active months in the hurricane season.."
https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2018/08/01/july-active-month-atlantic-basin-formation-two-hurricanes/878219002/

Another newspaper:  "Experts at Colorado State University predict storm activity for the remainder of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be 'below average.'"  Yet, they show an alarming image of 2 hurricanes...from last year.
https://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2018/08/hurricane_2018_forecast_update.html

Yay for a job where you can be wrong and exaggerate and still have people hang onto every word.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: ET21 on August 03, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
Weather people are fun.  These two stories were written in the past 24 hours:

July active month for Atlantic basin, with formation of two hurricanes  (The paper claims 2 is active because normally a hurricane occurs once every two years.  It then goes on to say "August is one of the most active months in the hurricane season.."
https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2018/08/01/july-active-month-atlantic-basin-formation-two-hurricanes/878219002/

Another newspaper:  "Experts at Colorado State University predict storm activity for the remainder of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be 'below average.'"  Yet, they show an alarming image of 2 hurricanes...from last year.
https://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2018/08/hurricane_2018_forecast_update.html

Yay for a job where you can be wrong and exaggerate and still have people hang onto every word.

Both links are your usual click-bait articles for newspapers
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 06, 2018, 04:39:51 PM
So when Did Hector decide to become a step away from Cat 5?
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 07, 2018, 02:18:30 PM
Oh hi Debby.
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: ET21 on September 14, 2018, 09:20:58 AM
Helene and possibly Joyce could make for some rough weather for Ireland and the UK early next week
Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 15, 2018, 07:14:09 PM
So much for 60% chance for this season being below average, and we still have 47% if the season left. ACE has reached 80 (66-110 is near average)

LG-TP260

Title: Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Post by: Hurricane Rex on November 12, 2018, 08:47:55 PM
Its fair to say 2018 hurricane seasons are over for the big ones, yes I know about the 60% chance area if interest but I just want to put this out there.

Chance of retirement IMO:
Atlantic:
Alberto: <1%
Beryl: <1%
Chris: 0%
Debby: 0%
Ernesto: 0%
Florence: 99%
Gordon: 2%
Helene: 1%
Isaac: 0%
Joyce: 0%
Kirk: 0%
Leslie: 20%
Michael: 99%
Nadine: 0%
Oscar: 0%

EPac (unless otherwise stated, chance is 0%):
Bud: <1%
Caroletta: <1%
Hector: 3%
Lane: 55% (damages not as severe as predicted)
Olivia: 3%
Nineteen: wait....
Rosa: 5%
Sergio: 8%
Walaka: 1%
Vicentee: 50% (16 deaths)
Willia: 40%

LG-TP260