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Author Topic: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970  (Read 4550 times)

kernals12

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See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« on: December 27, 2020, 12:25:24 AM »

https://www.climatecentral.org/outreach/alert-archive/2020/2020WinterPackage.html

3 degrees Fahrenheit in Boston, and thank the lord for that. In Minneapolis though, it was 6 degrees. If they made the Mary Tyler Moore Show today, she would've been throwing a pair of sunglasses, not a hat, into the air.
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2020, 01:30:42 AM »

Oh look, Denver's winters have actually cooled since 1970.


CLIMATE CHANGE IS FAKE!!!!

</s>

On a serious note though, it bothers me that the site hides the actual temperature change number for cities that have observed a decreasing or relatively steady trend. Make no mistake, global climate change is a very real thing, but withholding data that disagrees with your conclusion is bad science and likely plays into why there are so many deniers out there who think climate scientists are just "pushing an agenda".

kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2020, 08:32:02 AM »

Oh look, Denver's winters have actually cooled since 1970.


CLIMATE CHANGE IS FAKE!!!!

</s>

On a serious note though, it bothers me that the site hides the actual temperature change number for cities that have observed a decreasing or relatively steady trend. Make no mistake, global climate change is a very real thing, but withholding data that disagrees with your conclusion is bad science and likely plays into why there are so many deniers out there who think climate scientists are just "pushing an agenda".

It looks like there's a trend toward less year to year variation though.
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2020, 08:52:05 AM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2020, 09:04:00 AM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

Here's what NASA's earth observatory has to say:
"The cost and benefits of global warming will vary greatly from area to area. For moderate climate change, the balance can be difficult to assess."

And there's this study showing that winters have become more pleasant for 80% of Americans since 1970 as winters have warmed substantially while summers have barely gotten hotter.

And for a real have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too scenario, we could do this.
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2020, 09:25:34 AM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

Here's what NASA's earth observatory has to say:
"The cost and benefits of global warming will vary greatly from area to area. For moderate climate change, the balance can be difficult to assess."

And there's this study showing that winters have become more pleasant for 80% of Americans since 1970 as winters have warmed substantially while summers have barely gotten hotter.

And for a real have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too scenario, we could do this.

Cold temperatures have more variation than hot temperatures (this is why Minnesota has the record for largest difference, and Miami Beach has never hit 100°F), so it makes sense that cold temperatures increase more than hot temperatures. However, global warming is definitely a net negative:
  • Hurricanes become more extreme on average.
  • Unwanted animals and plants, such as cockroaches and kudzu, move farther north.
  • The difference between 92°F and 94°F is more than you would expect if there is high humidity. Not much difference between 0°F and 2°F, even with windchill.
  • Most of the world lives in warmer temperatures than where we both live. Beijing corresponds to Massachusetts, but it's one of the more northern cities in China. India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Brazil, as well as the entire Middle East are hotter. Most of the United States is hotter. Africa is hotter than Massachusetts, barely for South Africa but more if you move north. (Europe has a completely different incomparable climate, being much milder than the US for both high and low temperatures.)
  • At cold temperatures, you can put on extra layers. At hot temperatures, there's not much you can do except move to a place that isn't as hot, which can be a long way if you're far from water or mountains.
  • It's not just humans. Species are dying off due to climate change, not all of which is related to temperature.

One year, when I was in DC between Christmas and New Year's, there were concerns that the cherry trees would start to bloom and refreeze, killing them. In a typical year, the temperature stays cold enough during the entire winter that they don't start to bloom until spring, which is what is supposed to happen.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2020, 09:28:10 AM by 1 »
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2020, 09:26:01 AM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.

Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2020, 09:30:38 AM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.


Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.

Whatever climate change does for insects, it will be irrelevant in the face of our ability to breed sterile versions of those insects and then release them into the wild, driving them to extinction.

« Last Edit: December 27, 2020, 09:32:39 AM by kernals12 »
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2020, 11:00:28 AM »

Rare day I get to reference King of the Hill:

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2020, 01:23:59 PM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.


Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.

Whatever climate change does for insects, it will be irrelevant in the face of our ability to breed sterile versions of those insects and then release them into the wild, driving them to extinction.

So you hope we engineer insects to replace the ones we lose due to climate change? Bold strategy there Cotton
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2020, 01:46:31 PM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.


Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.

Whatever climate change does for insects, it will be irrelevant in the face of our ability to breed sterile versions of those insects and then release them into the wild, driving them to extinction.

So you hope we engineer insects to replace the ones we lose due to climate change? Bold strategy there Cotton

No, I believe we will engineer insects that will eradicate the ones that become more common due to climate change. They're already deploying it in Florida.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2020, 02:23:13 PM by kernals12 »
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2020, 01:53:10 PM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.


Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.

Whatever climate change does for insects, it will be irrelevant in the face of our ability to breed sterile versions of those insects and then release them into the wild, driving them to extinction.

So you hope we engineer insects to replace the ones we lose due to climate change? Bold strategy there Cotton

No, I believe we will engineer insects that will eradicate the ones that become more common due to climate change. They're already deploying it in Florida.

Dead link but it begs the question; this isn’t about Love Bugs is it?
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2020, 01:56:53 PM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.


Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.

Whatever climate change does for insects, it will be irrelevant in the face of our ability to breed sterile versions of those insects and then release them into the wild, driving them to extinction.

So you hope we engineer insects to replace the ones we lose due to climate change? Bold strategy there Cotton

No, I believe we will engineer insects that will eradicate the ones that become more common due to climate change. They're already deploying it in Florida.

Dead link but it begs the question; this isn’t about Love Bugs is it?

I fixed the link
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2020, 02:09:18 PM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.


Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.

Whatever climate change does for insects, it will be irrelevant in the face of our ability to breed sterile versions of those insects and then release them into the wild, driving them to extinction.

So you hope we engineer insects to replace the ones we lose due to climate change? Bold strategy there Cotton

No, I believe we will engineer insects that will eradicate the ones that become more common due to climate change. They're already deploying it in Florida.

Dead link but it begs the question; this isn’t about Love Bugs is it?

I fixed the link

Still dead. 
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2020, 02:23:28 PM »

kernals12, you seem to be treating this change like it's a good thing. While it may help the northern US, it's at the expense of the rest of the US and most of the world, and overall, global warming is something that must be mitigated.

I don't think it helps the Northern US at all. It disrupts a lot of natural processes. For example: ticks now stay around longer and aren't able to properly die off in the winter, which results in more ticks in the summer months. Ticks carry disease and bite and infect wildlife (namely moose), who eventually die from these bites, which throws off other natural processes.


Climate change isn't good for an ecosystem that evolved to deal with bitter cold winters.

Whatever climate change does for insects, it will be irrelevant in the face of our ability to breed sterile versions of those insects and then release them into the wild, driving them to extinction.

So you hope we engineer insects to replace the ones we lose due to climate change? Bold strategy there Cotton

No, I believe we will engineer insects that will eradicate the ones that become more common due to climate change. They're already deploying it in Florida.

Dead link but it begs the question; this isn’t about Love Bugs is it?

I fixed the link

Still dead.

Try it now
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2020, 08:58:44 PM »

Yeah, I wouldn't call climate change a good thing even for the northeast.  Quite frankly, I don't want southern pests around here, or tropical diseases in the US.  Plus our weather isn't actually getting uniformly warmer, but rather more variable and extreme.  I remember when snow tires were something that were absolutely not needed where I am, and people who had been around for 30 years couldn't remember getting a snow day even once in their entire careers when I first moved here seven years ago.  Fast forward to today - we get the same amount of snow as we did before, but instead of being spread out through the season, it now gets dumped in a couple of really large storms.  The last winter season is the first where I've had substantial trouble getting up the hill to my apartment (along with issues on my drives between Rochester and Albany, as I normally avoid the worst of the winter season), and we've had three snow days in the last 5 years.  Also, Lake Ontario has been insanely high in two of the last four years, flooding homes and communities, increasing erosion, and making boating more hazardous.  While people of a certain political persuasion try to pin the blame of Plan 2014 for managing the water level, the reason why the lake got and stayed so high those years was because the Ottawa River flooded Montréal, meaning more water couldn't be let out regardless of what management plan was in effect.
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2020, 09:08:32 PM »

Yeah, I wouldn't call climate change a good thing even for the northeast.  Quite frankly, I don't want southern pests around here, or tropical diseases in the US.  Plus our weather isn't actually getting uniformly warmer, but rather more variable and extreme.  I remember when snow tires were something that were absolutely not needed where I am, and people who had been around for 30 years couldn't remember getting a snow day even once in their entire careers when I first moved here seven years ago.  Fast forward to today - we get the same amount of snow as we did before, but instead of being spread out through the season, it now gets dumped in a couple of really large storms.  The last winter season is the first where I've had substantial trouble getting up the hill to my apartment (along with issues on my drives between Rochester and Albany, as I normally avoid the worst of the winter season), and we've had three snow days in the last 5 years.  Also, Lake Ontario has been insanely high in two of the last four years, flooding homes and communities, increasing erosion, and making boating more hazardous.  While people of a certain political persuasion try to pin the blame of Plan 2014 for managing the water level, the reason why the lake got and stayed so high those years was because the Ottawa River flooded Montréal, meaning more water couldn't be let out regardless of what management plan was in effect.

No it's not
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/06/more-temperature-variability-in-a-warming-world-not-so/

And we have ways of keeping away those pests and tropical diseases, they're called pesticides and antibiotics.
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2020, 09:11:04 PM »

Yeah, I wouldn't call climate change a good thing even for the northeast.  Quite frankly, I don't want southern pests around here, or tropical diseases in the US.  Plus our weather isn't actually getting uniformly warmer, but rather more variable and extreme.  I remember when snow tires were something that were absolutely not needed where I am, and people who had been around for 30 years couldn't remember getting a snow day even once in their entire careers when I first moved here seven years ago.  Fast forward to today - we get the same amount of snow as we did before, but instead of being spread out through the season, it now gets dumped in a couple of really large storms.  The last winter season is the first where I've had substantial trouble getting up the hill to my apartment (along with issues on my drives between Rochester and Albany, as I normally avoid the worst of the winter season), and we've had three snow days in the last 5 years.  Also, Lake Ontario has been insanely high in two of the last four years, flooding homes and communities, increasing erosion, and making boating more hazardous.  While people of a certain political persuasion try to pin the blame of Plan 2014 for managing the water level, the reason why the lake got and stayed so high those years was because the Ottawa River flooded Montréal, meaning more water couldn't be let out regardless of what management plan was in effect.

No it's not
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/06/more-temperature-variability-in-a-warming-world-not-so/

vdeane was referring to precipitation variability, not temperature variability.
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2020, 09:17:21 PM »

for my city, yikes
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2020, 09:18:44 PM »

Yeah, I wouldn't call climate change a good thing even for the northeast.  Quite frankly, I don't want southern pests around here, or tropical diseases in the US.  Plus our weather isn't actually getting uniformly warmer, but rather more variable and extreme.  I remember when snow tires were something that were absolutely not needed where I am, and people who had been around for 30 years couldn't remember getting a snow day even once in their entire careers when I first moved here seven years ago.  Fast forward to today - we get the same amount of snow as we did before, but instead of being spread out through the season, it now gets dumped in a couple of really large storms.  The last winter season is the first where I've had substantial trouble getting up the hill to my apartment (along with issues on my drives between Rochester and Albany, as I normally avoid the worst of the winter season), and we've had three snow days in the last 5 years.  Also, Lake Ontario has been insanely high in two of the last four years, flooding homes and communities, increasing erosion, and making boating more hazardous.  While people of a certain political persuasion try to pin the blame of Plan 2014 for managing the water level, the reason why the lake got and stayed so high those years was because the Ottawa River flooded Montréal, meaning more water couldn't be let out regardless of what management plan was in effect.

No it's not
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/06/more-temperature-variability-in-a-warming-world-not-so/

And we have ways of keeping away those pests and tropical diseases, they're called pesticides and antibiotics.
You need to start looking at what the weather is actually doing.  We can go from having little to no snow for weeks and then get 2-3' dumped in one storm.  That is not normal.  That's not even what the weather was like even when I moved here, much less decades ago.  From talking to my parents, I know the weather around Rochester isn't what it once was either.  We can also go from having absurdly cold temperatures to absurdly warm ones real quick.  That just didn't use to happen as much.  For reference, that article was published the year I moved here, so the real world doesn't reflect its conclusion.  At least not here.

We are NOT going to go back to the era of spraying DDT everywhere (not that DDT even works half as much as it used to... the pests adapted).  It's bad for the environment.  And antibiotics only work against bacteria, and more and more are becoming resistant - if anything, we need to reduce antibiotic usage, not increase it.
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2020, 09:22:33 PM »

Yeah, I wouldn't call climate change a good thing even for the northeast.  Quite frankly, I don't want southern pests around here, or tropical diseases in the US.  Plus our weather isn't actually getting uniformly warmer, but rather more variable and extreme.  I remember when snow tires were something that were absolutely not needed where I am, and people who had been around for 30 years couldn't remember getting a snow day even once in their entire careers when I first moved here seven years ago.  Fast forward to today - we get the same amount of snow as we did before, but instead of being spread out through the season, it now gets dumped in a couple of really large storms.  The last winter season is the first where I've had substantial trouble getting up the hill to my apartment (along with issues on my drives between Rochester and Albany, as I normally avoid the worst of the winter season), and we've had three snow days in the last 5 years.  Also, Lake Ontario has been insanely high in two of the last four years, flooding homes and communities, increasing erosion, and making boating more hazardous.  While people of a certain political persuasion try to pin the blame of Plan 2014 for managing the water level, the reason why the lake got and stayed so high those years was because the Ottawa River flooded Montréal, meaning more water couldn't be let out regardless of what management plan was in effect.

No it's not
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/06/more-temperature-variability-in-a-warming-world-not-so/

And we have ways of keeping away those pests and tropical diseases, they're called pesticides and antibiotics.
You need to start looking at what the weather is actually doing.  We can go from having little to no snow for weeks and then get 2-3' dumped in one storm.  That is not normal.  That's not even what the weather was like even when I moved here, much less decades ago.  From talking to my parents, I know the weather around Rochester isn't what it once was either.  We can also go from having absurdly cold temperatures to absurdly warm ones real quick.  That just didn't use to happen as much.  For reference, that article was published the year I moved here, so the real world doesn't reflect its conclusion.  At least not here.

We are NOT going to go back to the era of spraying DDT everywhere (not that DDT even works half as much as it used to... the pests adapted).  It's bad for the environment.  And antibiotics only work against bacteria, and more and more are becoming resistant - if anything, we need to reduce antibiotic usage, not increase it.

I need evidence for that, not anecdotes.
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #21 on: December 27, 2020, 09:23:10 PM »

for my city, yikes

Congrats dude, you broke the frost barrier.
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kernals12

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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #22 on: December 27, 2020, 09:25:28 PM »

Yeah, I wouldn't call climate change a good thing even for the northeast.  Quite frankly, I don't want southern pests around here, or tropical diseases in the US.  Plus our weather isn't actually getting uniformly warmer, but rather more variable and extreme.  I remember when snow tires were something that were absolutely not needed where I am, and people who had been around for 30 years couldn't remember getting a snow day even once in their entire careers when I first moved here seven years ago.  Fast forward to today - we get the same amount of snow as we did before, but instead of being spread out through the season, it now gets dumped in a couple of really large storms.  The last winter season is the first where I've had substantial trouble getting up the hill to my apartment (along with issues on my drives between Rochester and Albany, as I normally avoid the worst of the winter season), and we've had three snow days in the last 5 years.  Also, Lake Ontario has been insanely high in two of the last four years, flooding homes and communities, increasing erosion, and making boating more hazardous.  While people of a certain political persuasion try to pin the blame of Plan 2014 for managing the water level, the reason why the lake got and stayed so high those years was because the Ottawa River flooded Montréal, meaning more water couldn't be let out regardless of what management plan was in effect.

No it's not
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/06/more-temperature-variability-in-a-warming-world-not-so/

vdeane was referring to precipitation variability, not temperature variability.

It sounds like he's talking about temperature variability.
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2020, 09:53:25 PM »

Yeah, I wouldn't call climate change a good thing even for the northeast.  Quite frankly, I don't want southern pests around here, or tropical diseases in the US.  Plus our weather isn't actually getting uniformly warmer, but rather more variable and extreme.  I remember when snow tires were something that were absolutely not needed where I am, and people who had been around for 30 years couldn't remember getting a snow day even once in their entire careers when I first moved here seven years ago.  Fast forward to today - we get the same amount of snow as we did before, but instead of being spread out through the season, it now gets dumped in a couple of really large storms.  The last winter season is the first where I've had substantial trouble getting up the hill to my apartment (along with issues on my drives between Rochester and Albany, as I normally avoid the worst of the winter season), and we've had three snow days in the last 5 years.  Also, Lake Ontario has been insanely high in two of the last four years, flooding homes and communities, increasing erosion, and making boating more hazardous.  While people of a certain political persuasion try to pin the blame of Plan 2014 for managing the water level, the reason why the lake got and stayed so high those years was because the Ottawa River flooded Montréal, meaning more water couldn't be let out regardless of what management plan was in effect.

No it's not
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/06/more-temperature-variability-in-a-warming-world-not-so/

vdeane was referring to precipitation variability, not temperature variability.

It sounds like she's talking about temperature variability.

Then what is all this mention of snow about?

(Unrelated: I'm surprised it's taken almost 12 years for someone to make that mistake.)
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Re: See How Your City's Winters Have Warmed Since 1970
« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2020, 10:45:48 PM »

(Unrelated: I'm surprised it's taken almost 12 years for someone to make that mistake.)

If you're referring to the pronoun, I don't see how you could know for sure.
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