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Author Topic: Tornadoes in the south  (Read 5341 times)

tolbs17

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Tornadoes in the south
« on: March 17, 2021, 09:15:34 PM »

Well, I guess this is something that I will experience for years. Especially during a pandemic

For here, it says it will happen sometime around 7pm (sunset).

https://www.wral.com/severe-weather-coming-medium-to-high-threat-for-tornadoes-thursday-afternoon/19576470/


« Last Edit: March 17, 2021, 09:20:31 PM by tolbs17 »
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Re: Tornado warning
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2021, 09:17:47 PM »

There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.
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Re: Tornado warning
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2021, 09:19:00 PM »

I thought tornado warnings only come at most 15 minutes in advance, not a whole day.
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tolbs17

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Re: Tornado warning
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2021, 09:20:09 PM »

There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.
Well, MS (and some of my friends live there) got rekt and they have no power when a tornado hit. I know I'm ain't gonna go there.

I know there will be heavy rain and damaging winds.
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tolbs17

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Re: Tornado warning
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2021, 09:20:44 PM »

I thought tornado warnings only come at most 15 minutes in advance, not a whole day.
Retitled the thread.

I wanted to make this so the weather thread doesn't get gung-ho with the tornado discussion rather than just normal weather talk.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2021, 09:22:56 PM by tolbs17 »
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Scott5114

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2021, 10:57:30 PM »

There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.

I thought tornado warnings only come at most 15 minutes in advance, not a whole day.

The folks down on Highway 9 in beautiful Norman, Oklahoma can do a pretty fair job at determining a few days in advance that tornadoes are likely, even to the point that they can forecast the time of day they'll form and how long-tracked and strong they'll be. Of course, none of that says where exactly will be affected—tornado tracks are just too small and unpredictable for that.

Day 1 convective outlook (tonight). Wouldn't want to be in Alabama right now—High risk areas are no joke, and tend to end up with results like the May 20, 2013 or May 3, 1999 outbreaks.


Day 2 (tomorrow). Better, but Moderate risk is still nothing to fool around with. (I've had to take shelter on Slight risk days too many times.)
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tolbs17

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2021, 11:40:50 PM »

Or May 22, 2011.

I guess moderate risk would have some tree damage and that's all.

Greenville is roughly in the moderate zone, but is pretty close to enhanched.
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Scott5114

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2021, 12:48:44 AM »

I guess moderate risk would have some tree damage and that's all.

Moderate risk is roughly to tornadoes what a Category 4 is to hurricanes. "Some tree damage" is Marginal.
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2021, 07:54:34 AM »

Does Oklahoma count as the south?
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2021, 08:01:31 AM »

Does Oklahoma count as the south?

I would say the eastern third does, but not the rest. The area covering the current second congressional district was previously Democratic and has turned Republican recently (like the rest of the South, later at the state level than the national level). It also matches the Texas split where the eastern part is in the South but the western part is not. While Oklahoma has very few African Americans compared to most of the South, so does the eastern half of Tennessee, which is unambiguously in the South.
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2021, 08:18:03 AM »

Day 2 (tomorrow). Better, but Moderate risk is still nothing to fool around with. (I've had to take shelter on Slight risk days too many times.)


Based on the weather forecasts combined, parts of PA and NJ will see over an inch of rain, have a slight chance of tornados, then a chance of snow overnight.
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Scott5114

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2021, 04:41:06 PM »

Does Oklahoma count as the south?

I would say the eastern third does, but not the rest. The area covering the current second congressional district was previously Democratic and has turned Republican recently (like the rest of the South, later at the state level than the national level). It also matches the Texas split where the eastern part is in the South but the western part is not. While Oklahoma has very few African Americans compared to most of the South, so does the eastern half of Tennessee, which is unambiguously in the South.

Maybe go with the eastern third, south of about I-40. I wouldn't consider Tulsa or anything east of there on I-44 particularly Southern.

The real answer is that Oklahoma is the product of a one-night stand between Kansas and Texas, so categorize it wherever you'd put the midpoint between our neighbors, or a watered-down Texas.
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2021, 06:20:32 PM »

where I live my town was in the slight risk area but we only had flash flooding
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2021, 06:23:01 PM »

Quote
While Oklahoma has very few African Americans compared to most of the South, so does the eastern half of Tennessee, which is unambiguously in the South.

Hm.  Read Tulsa's history.

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tolbs17

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2021, 08:37:06 PM »

We got nothing yet, storm is still coming. It's a complete waste to just cancel school, really.
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Scott5114

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2021, 09:36:29 PM »

Such is life with mesocyclones. Sometimes something as minor as a cloud bank forming, or a front coming in an hour earlier than expected and triggering convection early, sucks enough energy out of the atmosphere that what could have been a really bad storm never materializes.

Consider it a blessing: nobody died, and you got a free day off.
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tolbs17

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2021, 09:58:07 PM »

Such is life with mesocyclones. Sometimes something as minor as a cloud bank forming, or a front coming in an hour earlier than expected and triggering convection early, sucks enough energy out of the atmosphere that what could have been a really bad storm never materializes.

Consider it a blessing: nobody died, and you got a free day off.
I guess so. It's REALLY going to rain tomorrow with some winds.
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Re: Tornado warning
« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2021, 11:27:35 AM »

There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.

Warnings nowadays are usually 20-30 minutes in advance of the actual storm, sometimes more. So yes, there is advanced warning
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2021, 02:30:06 PM »

Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2021, 08:07:10 PM »

Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.

You see this a lot more in the south and at night than you do in the plains or during the day. I can recall multiple instances where a radar signature in Nebraska or Kansas wasn't tornado warned that would've been in Alabama or Mississippi. Sometimes, warnings aren't even issued until a tornado is actually sighted on the ground in those states. It's harder to visually determine whether a tornado is down in the south (due to terrain and HP vs LP supercells) which is why radar indicated warnings are very common. It often took 30 minutes to an hour to determine if anything was down (before CC/Dual Pol was a thing).
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2021, 08:19:10 PM »

Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.

You see this a lot more in the south and at night than you do in the plains or during the day. I can recall multiple instances where a radar signature in Nebraska or Kansas wasn't tornado warned that would've been in Alabama or Mississippi. Sometimes, warnings aren't even issued until a tornado is actually sighted on the ground in those states. It's harder to visually determine whether a tornado is down in the south (due to terrain and HP vs LP supercells) which is why radar indicated warnings are very common. It often took 30 minutes to an hour to determine if anything was down (before CC/Dual Pol was a thing).
Yeah all of the tornado warnings I've gotten over the years were issued because of that "radar-indicated rotation", never a "tornado sighted". It seems that if you get a warning like that, it usually ends up becoming a weak, rain-wrapped funnel that most don't even know is there (if it even comes down at all). On a serious note, I think it's always better to overwarn a storm rather than underwarn it, because other parts of the storm (hail, downdrafts, etc) can also be dangerous and worth sheltering for, even if there isn't a tornado.

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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2021, 09:54:17 PM »

Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.

You see this a lot more in the south and at night than you do in the plains or during the day. I can recall multiple instances where a radar signature in Nebraska or Kansas wasn't tornado warned that would've been in Alabama or Mississippi. Sometimes, warnings aren't even issued until a tornado is actually sighted on the ground in those states. It's harder to visually determine whether a tornado is down in the south (due to terrain and HP vs LP supercells) which is why radar indicated warnings are very common. It often took 30 minutes to an hour to determine if anything was down (before CC/Dual Pol was a thing).
Yeah all of the tornado warnings I've gotten over the years were issued because of that "radar-indicated rotation", never a "tornado sighted". It seems that if you get a warning like that, it usually ends up becoming a weak, rain-wrapped funnel that most don't even know is there (if it even comes down at all). On a serious note, I think it's always better to overwarn a storm rather than underwarn it, because other parts of the storm (hail, downdrafts, etc) can also be dangerous and worth sheltering for, even if there isn't a tornado.

But at the same time overwarning makes people take warnings less seriously. If you have enough false alarms, people will stop taking action and will eventually when an actual tornado occurs less people will be ready for it.
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #22 on: March 25, 2021, 02:41:18 PM »

Another High Risk day in the Deep South today.
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #23 on: March 25, 2021, 03:49:31 PM »

Already several tornadoes reported in Alabama, including one that produced a Tornado Emergency near Birmingham.
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Re: Tornadoes in the south
« Reply #24 on: March 25, 2021, 03:52:52 PM »

Is being on the edge of the light green, in a location where nobody is used to tornadoes, something to worry about? (I live barely outside it, but as it travels from west to east, it will enter my location.)
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