Where will be the newest major city?

[Bruce]

Doesn't Boise have a relatively easy time getting renewable energy sources (hydro and wind, I imagine)? That might be a huge boost in their direction. Just need to improve the public transit situation and you'd have priced-out people from the urban Northwest flocking there.

[dvferyance]

Obviously, Rochester, NY, will be the next "major" city. definitely #3 or #4 within the US before the century is over.

Sioux Falls SD has seen major growth over the years. Now it's population is pushing 200,000 nearly double from 1990. I don't get what the attraction is that so many people are moving there. Boring terrain cold weather the big attractions South Dakota has like Mt Rushmore and Deadwood ect are way on the other side of the state.

i doubt that will ever be a major city.

It depends on what you define as major. Will it be major like Denver or Minneapolis? Most likely not but I could see it falling into the size of like Des Moines or Grand Rapids.

Isn't Sioux Falls already a similar size to Des Moines and Grand Rapids?

As far as city population goes maybe but it's metro population is much smaller.

[sparker]

Doesn't Boise have a relatively easy time getting renewable energy sources (hydro and wind, I imagine)? That might be a huge boost in their direction. Just need to improve the public transit situation and you'd have priced-out people from the urban Northwest flocking there.

While the Boise/T.V. metro is approaching 1M (probably get there by about 2022-23 or so at current rates of increase), Boise itself is at about 240K -- a bit shy of what's considered minimal for a high-capital system such as LR.  However, as from all accounts congestion has been affecting both I-184 and I-84 west of their junction, bus-only lanes featuring express routes out to the Nampa/Caldwell area might be appropriate -- providing they feed into an efficient in-town network linking such disparate destinations as the capital area, the industrial south part of town, and BSU.  And it would surely help if the buses themselves were either fully electric or biofuel-based hybrids -- i.e., stop the heavy hydrocarbon stuff before it even starts!     

[DJStephens]

El Paso TX is likely close to a million, within city limits, if everyone is counted.  Add Cuidad Juarez directly to the south, and it is a metro area of at least three million.  It has gotten very crowded in El Paso, with too much overly dense development being allowed.  Not what it used to be in terms of livability.

El Paso = approx. to 700,000 in city limits
Cd Juárez = approx. 1.5 million in city limits
Bi-national metro area = approx. 2.7 million



My vote goes to India.  The newest major city will be in India.

There are likely large groups and numbers of individuals not being counted in El Paso.  Due to the proximity of the international border, and the ability to flow across it there.   In either direction.   And large numbers not wanting to "be counted" due to their immigration or citizenship status. 
The texdot used to post "official" population numbers once one crossed into city limits.  The "official" 1990 number was 515,000.  No signs were posted following either the 00 or 10 census.  Both texas and the federal government have a disgusting $7.25 minimum wage on the books.   Although likely most "minimum" wage workers there, of which there are lot, make a couple of bucks per hour above that.    There are oppressive property tax rates in texas, and they likely vary all over the map statewide. A city such as El Paso, which has a lot of school age children, and too much school administration, soaks up a lot of tax revenue.   A simple $100K home, has a yearly property tax bill of well over $3K.  In a low wage town.   Not a recipe for success.   

[kphoger]

There are likely large groups and numbers of individuals not being counted in El Paso.  Due to the proximity of the international border, and the ability to flow across it there.   In either direction.   And large numbers not wanting to "be counted" due to their immigration or citizenship status. 

My experience with the international border (having crossed by land nineteen times in each direction so far (though only once in each direction at Juárez)) is that it is not exactly easy for Mexicans to "flow across it".

Illegal immigrants are counted in the census.

[Road Hog]

There are likely large groups and numbers of individuals not being counted in El Paso.  Due to the proximity of the international border, and the ability to flow across it there.   In either direction.   And large numbers not wanting to "be counted" due to their immigration or citizenship status. 

My experience with the international border (having crossed by land nineteen times in each direction so far (though only once in each direction at Juárez)) is that it is not exactly easy for Mexicans to "flow across it".

Illegal immigrants are counted in the census.

And ironically, the Trump Census Department will cost the state of Texas possibly hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding in its effort to undercount illegals in 2020.

[Bruce]

Doesn't Boise have a relatively easy time getting renewable energy sources (hydro and wind, I imagine)? That might be a huge boost in their direction. Just need to improve the public transit situation and you'd have priced-out people from the urban Northwest flocking there.

While the Boise/T.V. metro is approaching 1M (probably get there by about 2022-23 or so at current rates of increase), Boise itself is at about 240K -- a bit shy of what's considered minimal for a high-capital system such as LR.  However, as from all accounts congestion has been affecting both I-184 and I-84 west of their junction, bus-only lanes featuring express routes out to the Nampa/Caldwell area might be appropriate -- providing they feed into an efficient in-town network linking such disparate destinations as the capital area, the industrial south part of town, and BSU.  And it would surely help if the buses themselves were either fully electric or biofuel-based hybrids -- i.e., stop the heavy hydrocarbon stuff before it even starts!     

I think Boise is at the level where they can support a regional bus system and a frequent in-city network. I tried Valley Transit during a brief stay in Boise a few weeks ago and it had some good facilities to work with (the downtown transit center is quite nice, though the signage is lacking) but the service is far worse than I would expect of a city with more than 250K.

[MantyMadTown]

New Clark City, Tarlac is in the running for new Major city in the Philippines.

Where do other countries get the funding to build new cities out of nowhere? We certainly can't do that here.

[brad2971]

New Clark City, Tarlac is in the running for new Major city in the Philippines.

Where do other countries get the funding to build new cities out of nowhere? We certainly can't do that here.

New Clark City isn't exactly "out of nowhere." It's being built on what was the former US Clark Air Force Base. Think of what was done on former bases like Lowry (CO), NTC Orlando, and NTC San Diego, only with quite a few more office and condo towers.


Also, bear in mind that the Phillippines is a country that has yet to run into the "middle income trap." Combine that fact with the near 3.00 TFR (total fertility rate), and there's still quite a bit of room to grow economically, if not physically.

[bing101]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/12/12/why-hundreds-of-completely-new-cities-are-being-built-around-the-world/

And heres another one on New Major cities that are in the process of being formed all over the world and one of them is Songdo, South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Songdo_International_Business_District

So far as of 2018 100k people live in Songdo but this is subject to change as South Korea attempts to spread economic wealth outside of Seoul.

[Chris]

Chinese cities have experienced extraordinary growth over the past 30 years. Some are well known, like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. But inland cities have exploded as well.

This is Chengdu in Sichuan province. It now has more than 10 million people in the urban area.

[TheStranger]

New Clark City, Tarlac is in the running for new Major city in the Philippines.

Where do other countries get the funding to build new cities out of nowhere? We certainly can't do that here.

New Clark City isn't exactly "out of nowhere." It's being built on what was the former US Clark Air Force Base. Think of what was done on former bases like Lowry (CO), NTC Orlando, and NTC San Diego, only with quite a few more office and condo towers.

New Clark City actually isn't on the Clark AFB property at all:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Clark_City

[bing101]

How about Reno is it in the running for new major city status given that I hear about former Sacramento and Bay Area Residents moving to Nevada for retirement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reno,_Nevada

[sparker]

How about Reno is it in the running for new major city status given that I hear about former Sacramento and Bay Area Residents moving to Nevada for retirement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reno,_Nevada

Reno itself has recently increased to about 225K in the city and about 360K in the metro area.  And, yes, much of the growth is coming from displaced CA residents (from all over that state) looking for affordable housing, a lower general cost of living, and considerably lower taxes.  But it's not only Reno; the whole Washoe Valley south from there along I-580/US 395 is becoming a magnet for disaffected CA folks; Carson City and the towns arrayed along US 395 south of there (Minden, Gardnerville, etc.) are experiencing a high rate of growth, principally because they attract residents who want "ranch"-style living on large plots of land, which is either unavailable or exorbitant in much of CA.  And a lot of the Reno-area growth is along US 395 north of town; so it could safely be stated that the entire US 395 corridor from Gardnerville north to where 395 crosses back in to CA is becoming a single extended metro area, with "infill" between Carson City and Reno becoming more common since I-580 was completed several years ago. 

In addition, about 30 miles east of Reno is another growing area, with housing tracts popping up between Fernley and Fallon (about where the nascent I-11 is slated to eventually connect to I-80); these tend to be dominated by "55-plus" retirement communities; the growth there is tied to relatively low housing costs, even when compared with the US 395 corridor several miles to the west.  The one issue with both Reno and the Fallon area is that it is very cold during the winter (Reno sits at about 4500' elevation); Carson City and points to the south usually are at least 10 degrees higher except during storm weather.  But the area has plenty of amenities -- with winter sports in immediately adjacent areas, so it's considered a desirable choice.  My guess is that the combined Reno-Carson-Fallon area will exceed 1M population no later than 2030, with a high percentage of retirees in than number.

[MikieTimT]

Since the thread seems to be about a singular city rather than MSA, I'd probably say Austin would be the next to cross 1M.  There are several fast growing MSAs poised to cross 1M, but most are several smaller cities growing into each other.

[FightingIrish]

Since we're talking about southern cities, aside from North Carolina, Nashville seems to be heavily hyped.

[kevinb1994]

Since we're talking about southern cities, aside from North Carolina, Nashville seems to be heavily hyped.

Especially due to the fact that Amazon chose to locate a mini HQ2 there.

[MantyMadTown]

I think in this discussion we've been talking about two different tiers of cities:

1st tier - cities with international levels of influence, like New York, Washington DC, Chicago, LA, and San Francisco/Silicon Valley. I would also argue that Seattle's one of those cities as well, given the presence of the major companies in the area.
2nd tier - cities with a smaller level of influence than 1st tier, but are still pretty large. Some of the cities in this discussion fit this category presently and are on track to becoming 1st tier cities, and some are mid-sized cities looking to become 2nd tier.

I could go on with more tiers, like the 3rd tier–I would say these are the mid-sized cities (city proper around 200k-500k and MSA usually less than 1 mil)–4th tier, and so on.

[sparker]

Since we're talking about southern cities, aside from North Carolina, Nashville seems to be heavily hyped.

Especially due to the fact that Amazon chose to locate a mini HQ2 there.

Which in itself isn't surprising, considering its prominence in the entertainment industry -- as well as its central location in the Mid-South, with Interstate corridor radiating in 6 directions, reflected by radial rail lines (excepting due east).  If Amazon was intent on establishing a secondary hub not on the east coast, Nashville's probably as good as any location (the traffic situation in Atlanta probably scared them off!).   

[Bruce]

I think in this discussion we've been talking about two different tiers of cities:

The Globalization and World Cities Research Network publishes an annual city classification based on economic status, cultural influence, and political dominance. It's been pretty well regarded as having a consistent method for classifying cities.

The highest tier is Alpha (with subdivisions). NYC is the only Alpha++ city in North America; Chicago, Los Angeles, and Miami appear at Alpha (regular) alongside Toronto; San Francisco, Houston, and Washington D.C. are at Alpha - (minus).

I've always thought they rated Seattle a bit too low down the rankings, with only Beta - compared to Vancouver at Beta +.

[kevinb1994]

Since we're talking about southern cities, aside from North Carolina, Nashville seems to be heavily hyped.

Especially due to the fact that Amazon chose to locate a mini HQ2 there.

Which in itself isn't surprising, considering its prominence in the entertainment industry -- as well as its central location in the Mid-South, with Interstate corridor radiating in 6 directions, reflected by radial rail lines (excepting due east).  If Amazon was intent on establishing a secondary hub not on the east coast, Nashville's probably as good as any location (the traffic situation in Atlanta probably scared them off!).

Yeah if you draw a line from both (or either) Chicago and Miami, the halfway aka middle point would naturally be Nashville, a strategic move made by those behind the Dixie Highway, which funneled traffic from Chicago and Detroit to Miami via Indianapolis and Louisville (and going out of order alphabetically, Cincinnati, Nashville, Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Orlando).

Also before the Dixie Highway, there was the Louisville and Nashville Railroad and before that, the Louisville and Nashville Turnpike and before that, the Wilderness Road (blazed by Daniel Boone, at least initially) with branches from southwestern Virginia on the Great Wagon Road (which brought travelers from Philadelphia to the Appalachians and eventually to the Carolinas, especially to Charlotte) to either Lexington and Louisville or Knoxville and Nashville. Unfortunately the Wilderness Road was passed over in favor of the National Road which used the old Cumberland Road (the successor to the old Braddock Road which was blazed by General Braddock during the French and Indian War between Cumberland, MD and Pittsburgh) which ran from Cumberland, MD to the Ohio River Valley and extended it westward over the portion of the Zane Trace between Wheeling and Zanesville before running out of time and money in Vandalia, IL the former capital of the Land of Lincoln (running through Columbus and Indianapolis in order to get there in the first place). Of course the prominent bankers and financiers wanted it to extend to Baltimore and the District of Columbia (Washington, and before reconstruction, Alexandria and Arlington) and so it did as well.

In those olden days and years, one would continue on the Vincennes Trace and Road from Louisville west to the Wabash River Valley, or continue on the Natchez Trace and Road from Nashville west to the Mississippi River Valley. In essence there was a choice of heading northwest or heading southwest in those days.

[bing101]

I think in this discussion we've been talking about two different tiers of cities:

The Globalization and World Cities Research Network publishes an annual city classification based on economic status, cultural influence, and political dominance. It's been pretty well regarded as having a consistent method for classifying cities.

The highest tier is Alpha (with subdivisions). NYC is the only Alpha++ city in North America; Chicago, Los Angeles, and Miami appear at Alpha (regular) alongside Toronto; San Francisco, Houston, and Washington D.C. are at Alpha - (minus).

I've always thought they rated Seattle a bit too low down the rankings, with only Beta - compared to Vancouver at Beta +.

Here is something interesting though San Jose is listed as a gamma city in the rankings even though they have more people than San Francisco.

[bing101]

The Fresno Metro Area was around 973,000 the last time I looked.   Certainly wouldn't have thought that moving here, certainly doesn't feel that way now.  Apparently the population in the City of Fresno has jumped from 217,000 in 1980 to about 500,000 today.

Wow what's amazing here is that Fresno city proper is the largest city in the Central Valley and its technically bigger than Sacramento though.
I would have guessed Sacramento City proper though as the central valleys largest city though until I looked at population list though for Sacramento city and Sacramento county though.

[DTComposer]

I think in this discussion we've been talking about two different tiers of cities:

The Globalization and World Cities Research Network publishes an annual city classification based on economic status, cultural influence, and political dominance. It's been pretty well regarded as having a consistent method for classifying cities.

The highest tier is Alpha (with subdivisions). NYC is the only Alpha++ city in North America; Chicago, Los Angeles, and Miami appear at Alpha (regular) alongside Toronto; San Francisco, Houston, and Washington D.C. are at Alpha - (minus).

I've always thought they rated Seattle a bit too low down the rankings, with only Beta - compared to Vancouver at Beta +.

Here is something interesting though San Jose is listed as a gamma city in the rankings even though they have more people than San Francisco.

Not interesting if you actually read the web site. The listings have little to do with population - notice Miami is an Alpha city, even though it is smaller than San Francisco, Dallas, Houston, etc.

From the website:

The world according to GaWC is a city-centred world of flows in contrast to the more familiar state-centred world of boundaries.

Cities are assessed in terms of their advanced producer services using the interlocking network model (see GaWC Research Bulletin 23). Indirect measures of flows are derived to compute a city's network connectivity — this measures a city's integration into the world city network.

The connectivity measures are used to classify cities into levels of world city network integration.

San Francisco has been a national and/or international center for business, finance, culture, and tourism for well over 100 years. San Jose was little more than a regional center until perhaps the last 30 years, and only has national and/or international significance now because of Silicon Valley.

[hotdogPi]

It seems like it correlates more strongly to how well-known the city is to outsiders than its actual population.