AARoads Forum

Non-Road Boards => Off-Topic => Weather => Topic started by: thspfc on September 27, 2019, 07:43:43 PM

Title: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: thspfc on September 27, 2019, 07:43:43 PM
In Wisconsin, we might get a dusting of snow in late October, but we don't get big storms until around Thanksgiving, if even then. But southern Alberta is going to get over a foot of snow this weekend, and it has gotten me wondering just how rare those types of things are. If you live in a cold climate, tell about your September/October snowstorm experiences.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Alps on September 27, 2019, 07:49:23 PM
There was one year recently where we in NJ had a giant snowstorm that cancelled Halloween, and an otherwise quiet winter.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Kniwt on September 27, 2019, 08:01:29 PM
Up to 3 feet of snow across parts of Montana this weekend. It's a "significant and rare" event.
https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2019/09/25/rare-early-season-winter-weather-event-heading-great-falls-weekend/2442916001/

QuoteThe Front could potentially see in the ballpark of 1-3 feet of snow through the weekend.

"We're expecting severe to extreme winter weather impacts along the Front,"  said Paul Nutter, a meteorologist with NWS Great Falls.

Great Falls has a forecasted high of 37 degrees on Saturday, with the potential for falling temperatures during the day as the rain looks to turn to snow.

Such an event this early in the year is not unprecedented, Nutter said, but is few and far between. NWS records indicate a similar winter-weather occurrence over a three-day period in 1934.

"This type of event has happened in the historical record, but it is rather rare,"  Nutter said. "Some potentially similar matches, maybe one in the '50s, one in the '80s. We're talking about the type of event that we don't really see but maybe once every 10 or 20 years in the historical record that we have."
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: SectorZ on September 27, 2019, 08:52:32 PM
In Massachusetts, any snow before about Veteran's Day is very rare, but can be quite strong when it does happen.

Just before Halloween 2011, my current home of Tewksbury got about 5 inches of snow. Former home in Fitchburg got 17, and Ashburnham to the northwest got over 25. It was also 60+ degrees for about 10 straight days after and in Fitchburg I got a mere 20 inches of snow the rest of the year after.

Famously, a Baltimore Orioles World Series game in 1979 got snowed out on Columbus Day. Given how far south and how early that was, that one always fascinated me.

The Patriots also played a mid-October game in 2009 that had snow throughout. The Tennessee Titans were a complete mess dealing with it, and the Pats won 59-0.

The earliest I've seen snow in Massachusetts is October 10th (in 2000).
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: kalvado on September 27, 2019, 09:28:31 PM
I was in Banff pretty much a year ago sharp. It was october 1st I believe.  Banff got some snow, Calgary got a lot...
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Max Rockatansky on September 27, 2019, 09:31:40 PM
Not that rare in California.  We are having them above 6,000 feet in much of the State this weekend.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: US 89 on September 27, 2019, 09:35:09 PM
In Salt Lake City, typically you'll see the first flakes of the year fall in mid to late October, but major accumulations don't really happen until the last week of November. The mountains on the other hand might start seeing flakes in late September and major accumulations usually begin around the middle of October.

Of course, rules like this are made to be broken. In fact, the biggest storm total accumulation I remember happened on November 9-11, 2012, when over two feet of snow fell. The main cold front passed through on Friday the 9th and didn't amount to much, but a persistent lake-effect snow band developed and persisted through Sunday afternoon.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: MNHighwayMan on September 27, 2019, 09:52:08 PM
Quote from: US 89 on September 27, 2019, 09:35:09 PM
Of course, rules like this are made to be broken. In fact, the biggest storm total accumulation I remember happened on November 9-11, 2012, when over two feet of snow fell. The main cold front passed through on Friday the 9th and didn't amount to much, but a persistent lake-effect snow band developed and persisted through Sunday afternoon.

The Great Salt Lake is big enough to produce lake-effect snow? Neat.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on September 27, 2019, 10:33:00 PM
Quote from: thspfc on September 27, 2019, 07:43:43 PM
In Wisconsin, we might get a dusting of snow in late October, but we don't get big storms until around Thanksgiving, if even then. But southern Alberta is going to get over a foot of snow this weekend, and it has gotten me wondering just how rare those types of things are. If you live in a cold climate, tell about your September/October snowstorm experiences.

About as rare as Central Ohio reaching 90 degrees in October
(That is what is forecasted for October 1)
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Brandon on September 27, 2019, 10:59:18 PM
Quote from: thspfc on September 27, 2019, 07:43:43 PM
In Wisconsin, we might get a dusting of snow in late October, but we don't get big storms until around Thanksgiving, if even then. But southern Alberta is going to get over a foot of snow this weekend, and it has gotten me wondering just how rare those types of things are. If you live in a cold climate, tell about your September/October snowstorm experiences.

Depends.  In Houghton, north of you, expect snow September through May, inclusive.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: nexus73 on September 27, 2019, 11:37:37 PM
One year the first Monday Night Football game for the season was played in Denver.  It turned out to be a Snow Bowl. 

Glad I am not venturing into the continental interior right now!

Rick
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: ce929wax on September 28, 2019, 12:32:59 AM
I've seen it snow here in Michigan on my birthday (October 30th).  It only happened once that I can remember.  I think it was 1993.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: MNHighwayMan on September 28, 2019, 01:01:32 AM
Most Minnesotans who were alive then will remember the Halloween blizzard of 1991 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Halloween_blizzard). I was only in the womb at the time, but I'm sure my parents remember it well.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 28, 2019, 01:07:04 AM
Quote from: Alps on September 27, 2019, 07:49:23 PM
There was one year recently where we in NJ had a giant snowstorm that cancelled Halloween, and an otherwise quiet winter.
I remember reading about that, but I didn't live it. However, I do remember more than a few November snowfalls from my childhood, which at the time I found disturbing because I was taught that snow didn't fall until December.

Having said that, the second line of the song "To Grandmother's House We Go" gradually introduced me to the idea of snow falling before then,  especially when redone by the Peanuts gang in "A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving."

Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: US 89 on September 28, 2019, 01:20:40 AM
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on September 27, 2019, 09:52:08 PM
Quote from: US 89 on September 27, 2019, 09:35:09 PM
Of course, rules like this are made to be broken. In fact, the biggest storm total accumulation I remember happened on November 9-11, 2012, when over two feet of snow fell. The main cold front passed through on Friday the 9th and didn't amount to much, but a persistent lake-effect snow band developed and persisted through Sunday afternoon.

The Great Salt Lake is big enough to produce lake-effect snow? Neat.

Yep. It's also notoriously difficult to forecast, and a significant amount of research has gone into the Great Salt Lake effect, determining the parameters that are likely to produce lake-effect snow based on past events. In addition, every lake-effect event has slightly different characteristics (will it be scattered showers? one intense band? exactly where will these set up?) Even the high-resolution models don't resolve the lake very well, so there's a significant amount of local expertise that goes into forecasting it.

Doesn't have to be snow, either. Lake-effect rain can occur in early fall or late spring when Pacific storm systems bring in upper-level cold air, but temperatures at the surface are too warm for snow. And somtimes, lake-effect showers are strong enough to produce some lightning -- yes, this means thundersnow can happen on occasion.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Duke87 on September 28, 2019, 01:31:44 AM
Quote from: Alps on September 27, 2019, 07:49:23 PM
There was one year recently where we in NJ had a giant snowstorm that cancelled Halloween, and an otherwise quiet winter.

That was 2011.

Wasn't all that big of a snowstorm in terms of the amount that fell, but the problem was that it was a wet clumpy snow and the trees mostly still had leaves on them. Resultingly a lot of trees and pieces of trees collapsed under the weight, which meant a lot of blocked roads, downed power lines, and general damage that made it undesireable to have kids walking around outside. My parents (in CT) had no power for several days after that one.


Then the very next year Halloween was cancelled again due to Sandy. Would have been a sucky time to be a kid around here.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: GaryV on September 28, 2019, 07:43:40 AM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on September 28, 2019, 01:07:04 AM
"To Grandmother's House We Go"
Jingle Bells was also originally a Thanksgiving song.

I heard that Mackinac Island has had snow recorded in every month of the year.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Jim on September 28, 2019, 08:25:08 AM
The earliest major snow in eastern New York during my time was October 4, 1987.  We had about 6 inches up on the hill where I lived in Amsterdam, with much more in higher elevations.  With all the trees still filled with leaves, there was significant tree damage.

A Google search of "october 4 1987 snowstorm" gives several articles and videos.

A more typical timing of our first significant snow would be late November or early December.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Rothman on September 28, 2019, 10:21:32 AM
Had flurries in late September in western MA when I was a kid.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: froggie on September 28, 2019, 11:00:11 AM
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on September 28, 2019, 01:01:32 AM
Most Minnesotans who were alive then will remember the Halloween blizzard of 1991 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Halloween_blizzard). I was only in the womb at the time, but I'm sure my parents remember it well.

Coincidentally, the next storm system behind the one that caused the Perfect Storm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Perfect_Storm) off the New England coast.  I remember it well, not only from being caught in snow trying to get home but also the temperature going from the 50s early on Halloween to below zero less than 48 hours later.  Still the earliest recorded below zero temperature at MSP.

Back to the OP, up here September snow is rare, but not unheard of.  At my house, we typically get our first inch of snow before Halloween, though a few years ago we had received a foot of snow (not all at once, thankfully) by Halloween.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: ozarkman417 on September 28, 2019, 11:40:08 AM
Since 2016 there hasen't been much snow at all here, only getting about 3-4 inches a year. That amount fell in the first days of May of 2013. As far as fall goes, as long as I have been alive getting more than an inch of snow before December is very rare, and the first snow usually occurs around mid November. Instead, I get a fair deal of ice.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Rothman on September 28, 2019, 11:44:42 AM
Heh.  Regarding the Halloween Blizzard in 1991, kids in Superior, WI still went trick-or-treating.  My sister-in-law knocked on a door and was asked what she was.  Kind of hard to be a princess when you're wearing all that snow gear.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: MNHighwayMan on September 28, 2019, 01:10:26 PM
Quote from: Rothman on September 28, 2019, 11:44:42 AM
Heh.  Regarding the Halloween Blizzard in 1991, kids in Superior, WI still went trick-or-treating.  My sister-in-law knocked on a door and was asked what she was.  Kind of hard to be a princess when you're wearing all that snow gear.

Too bad that was well before anything Frozen existed. :)
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: NJRoadfan on September 28, 2019, 01:21:46 PM
NJ has had a string the past decade.

-The infamous 2011 October snowstorm that resulted in power outages and downed trees everywhere.
http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/29-Oct-11.html
-A week after Sandy hit, we had a Nor'easter dump snow on the affected areas as a final insult. The only bonus was that we were able to use the snow on the deck as a refrigerator since we STILL didn't have electric. Refueling a generator in driving wind and snow was NOT fun.
http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2013/07-Nov-12.html
-Last year's November 15-16 snowstorm disaster. It was only supposed to be "a few inches and done by the evening". Yeah right. It stuck around and landed up dumping over 6 inches on day one and areas got a 2nd round on the morning of day two.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/weather/2018/11/16/nj-snowstorm-2018-why-did-hit-so-hard/2023921002/
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: thspfc on September 28, 2019, 06:00:27 PM
Quote from: GaryV on September 28, 2019, 07:43:40 AM
I heard that Mackinac Island has had snow recorded in every month of the year.
I'm not calling you out, but that sounds fake. Snow in July just seems impossible at 45 degrees north and no altitude to speak of.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Brandon on September 28, 2019, 06:10:08 PM
Quote from: thspfc on September 28, 2019, 06:00:27 PM
Quote from: GaryV on September 28, 2019, 07:43:40 AM
I heard that Mackinac Island has had snow recorded in every month of the year.
I'm not calling you out, but that sounds fake. Snow in July just seems impossible at 45 degrees north and no altitude to speak of.

I don't think Mackinac Island has, but trace amounts can happen in the UP, particularly the Keweenaw, throughout June, July, and August.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: KEVIN_224 on September 28, 2019, 08:20:30 PM
Quote from: Alps on September 27, 2019, 07:49:23 PM
There was one year recently where we in NJ had a giant snowstorm that cancelled Halloween, and an otherwise quiet winter.

Snowtober...Saturday, October 29, 2011. It helped set Connecticut's current record for power outages only two months after the record set by Hurricane Irene.

(https://i.imgur.com/OCpita8.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/bkA4syR.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/61AsfUg.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/WzIrObb.jpg)

We had a snowstorm in mid-November 2018. No blizzards, thank goodness!
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 29, 2019, 11:31:39 AM
Quote from: Jim on September 28, 2019, 08:25:08 AM
A more typical timing of our first significant snow would be late November or early December.
Speaking of November snow in New York, back in November 2014 when that blizzard named "Knife" hit Buffalo and had no impact on the New York Tri-State Area whatsoever, I overheard a conversation between my aunt and uncle. She was worried I might get stuck in that storm on the way home, despite the fact that none of my trips to New York City or Long Island include anything upstate.

I think she might've confused Buffalo with Baltimore. That woman has no sense of direction.

Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 29, 2019, 01:33:14 PM
Quote from: D-Dey65 on September 29, 2019, 11:31:39 AM
...I think she might've confused Buffalo with Baltimore. That woman has no sense of direction.

Many people are often confused with directions and weather. Combine the two and it's an all-out confusion clusterfuck.

On travel websites, I so often see "It's raining today. Will that impact my trip next month?" Or, "The weather forecast looks bad next week; should I cancel the trip I saved up 2 years to go on?" In most cases, they're going to climates that typically get the weather they see, but somehow during the entire planning process they were never told or looked at what the typical weather would normally be.  And because weather forecasts are generalized, they act as if the entire week will be a washout if they see a 30% chance of showers.  When combined with roads, I've seen it worse. "I saw I-80 is closed in California because of snow. How does this impact my drive from NYC to Cleveland"?
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: 1995hoo on September 29, 2019, 02:42:47 PM
Here in the DC area, I can only remember snow in October one time, and I certainly wouldn't call it a snowstorm–it was more of a minimal dusting of the sort that makes your lawn look like it was dusted with powdered sugar but doesn't stick to the streets and sidewalks. Don't remember what year it was other than that it was sometime after 2010. I'm sure I have pictures somewhere on my PC, though.

Snow in November here is not a regular occurrence but isn't so rare as to be bizarre. We've had snow for Veterans' Day a few times and it's been enough to make for a messy commute home.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: webny99 on September 30, 2019, 12:13:53 PM
Snow in September would be rare, although the Rochester area has recorded measurable snowfall in every month except July.

October is a bit of a wild card. There could be snow, especially as you get past Columbus Day and towards Halloween, but it wouldn't exactly be expected. You will almost certainly see a few snowfalls before Thanksgiving - or on Thanksgiving (IIRC, it has snowed 4 of the past 5 Thanksgivings) - but late November / early December is when the real dependable and accumulating snow starts coming.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Max Rockatansky on September 30, 2019, 12:25:03 PM
Apparently the snow this past weekend was substantial enough that it closed Tioga Pass early.  CA 108 and CA 4 are presently closed although I'm not certain if it is for the winter at this point.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: kphoger on September 30, 2019, 02:18:52 PM
Common in Kansas.  Where I grew up in northwestern Kansas, it was rare for the first snow to happen after November.  The first snowstorm usually happened sometime around Halloween, as I recall.  Here in Wichita, however, it's common for the first snow to come in January, but it varies greatly from year to year here.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: ET21 on September 30, 2019, 02:45:13 PM
I've only had maybe a handfall of "snowfalls" (traces or brief dustings), though last year we had a decent blizzard the weekend of Thanksgiving. About 3 years ago we had flurries on Halloween
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: D-Dey65 on October 01, 2019, 11:02:25 PM
In November 2017, there were two days I saw trace elements of snow in the New York Tri-State Area. One was at the parking lot of the Food Universe in Fresh Meadows on Hollis Court & Francis Lewis Boulevards and the westbound service road of I-495, and the other was at the Vince Lombardi Service Area on the New Jersey Turnpike as I was heading home.



Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: kphoger on October 02, 2019, 01:28:29 PM
The reason western Kansas often has snowstorms in October or November that eastern Colorado and western Kansas are in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains.  Typically, storms dump their load before they're done making it east across the mountains, so those plains to the east don't receive much rain or snow.  However, if a storm is mighty enough to actually make it past the Front Range, then it's also mighty enough to dump a whole bunch of snow.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Crown Victoria on October 25, 2019, 07:02:20 AM
For those of us in/near the Lehigh Valley area, snow in October is not unheard of...indeed, the Halloween storm of 2011 was our heaviest storm for 2011-12!  As for November, it's not every year, but it happens often enough.  The November 2018 snowstorm made my 20 mile commute take 2 hours, which was nothing compared to what many others endured.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: D-Dey65 on November 10, 2019, 07:43:57 PM
I'm watching the end of a football game between the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers, and it's snowing fairly heavy in Green Bay. Any other games getting any snow right now?

BTW, it almost looked like the Panthers got a touchdown at the last second, but the video evidence shows otherwise.

Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 08:14:34 AM
I thought we were going to have a snow day today, but no bueno.  :-/
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: Flint1979 on November 11, 2019, 08:49:33 AM
Not rare in Michigan. Parts of the thumb area are expected to get up to 20 inches of snow this week.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: ozarkman417 on November 11, 2019, 09:10:14 AM
Everytime snow or ice is in the forecast it just doesn't happen. I really wanted this Monday off :/

SM-G965U

Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: 1995hoo on November 11, 2019, 09:19:22 AM
Quote from: ozarkman417 on November 11, 2019, 09:10:14 AM
Everytime snow or ice is in the forecast it just doesn't happen. I really wanted this Monday off :/

SM-G965U



I'm at home today because of a bad cold I don't want to spread around the office (I have sick leave, so I might as well use it). I'm a little disappointed because I kind of wanted to make the commute today–the feds are off for Veterans' Day, so there's no traffic and the HOV restriction on I-395 isn't in effect. HO/T operations start Sunday on that road, so it would have been my last chance to use the reversible lanes for free on a holiday. Oh well.

It's nice outside now (46° and sunny, supposed to go to around 60° later), but overnight it's supposed to go down to the 20s with rain and possible snow flurries tomorrow, then Tuesday night lows in the upper teens/low 20s.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: DaBigE on November 11, 2019, 01:35:47 PM
Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 08:14:34 AM
I thought we were going to have a snow day today, but no bueno.  :-/

Please tell me you're joking. For less than 6", maybe a delay. Madison wasn't even predicted to get more than 3" and looking out my window, that's about what we got, +/- and inch.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: jakeroot on November 11, 2019, 03:22:17 PM
Snow before December 21st? Exceptionally common in the Seattle area. Some of the most memorable storms from the past 20 years have been in November (http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/11/23/the-great-november-seattle-snowstorm-a-city-shuts-down/) and December ($) (https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/us/22snow.html).

According to this Seattle Times article (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/11/looking-back-at-memorable-seattle-area-snows/) from 2014, two-thirds of "memorable" snow storms in the Seattle area have occured before the winter solstice.

I've always joked that fall ends here in late November, not December. But that's not to say we won't see snow late in the year. I've seen snow in April (https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/photos-snow-in-seattle-on-april-18-2008/141784786).
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 06:06:40 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on November 11, 2019, 01:35:47 PM
Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 08:14:34 AM
I thought we were going to have a snow day today, but no bueno.  :-/

Please tell me you're joking. For less than 6", maybe a delay. Madison wasn't even predicted to get more than 3" and looking out my window, that's about what we got, +/- and inch.
Yeah, I was hopeful but not optimistic. I'm a little spoiled when it comes to that because we had six of them last year (though three were for extreme cold, not snow).
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: ozarkman417 on November 11, 2019, 07:37:39 PM
Quote from: DaBigE on November 11, 2019, 01:35:47 PM
Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 08:14:34 AM
I thought we were going to have a snow day today, but no bueno.  :-/

Please tell me you're joking. For less than 6", maybe a delay. Madison wasn't even predicted to get more than 3" and looking out my window, that's about what we got, +/- and inch.
Anywhere south of State Highway 32 in Missouri (approximately) doesn't get a whole lot of snow at all and anywhere in that area an inch is all it takes to cancel school. North of there it's three, depending on the district.
When I said there is not a lot of snow south of 32, that is basically saying that snow becomes ice. Ice is more likely to cause a school cancellation that snow is.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 09:51:24 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on November 11, 2019, 03:22:17 PM
Snow before December 21st? Exceptionally common in the Seattle area. Some of the most memorable storms from the past 20 years have been in November (http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/11/23/the-great-november-seattle-snowstorm-a-city-shuts-down/) and December ($) (https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/us/22snow.html).

According to this Seattle Times article (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/11/looking-back-at-memorable-seattle-area-snows/) from 2014, two-thirds of "memorable" snow storms in the Seattle area have occured before the winter solstice.

I've always joked that fall ends here in late November, not December. But that's not to say we won't see snow late in the year. I've seen snow in April (https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/photos-snow-in-seattle-on-april-18-2008/141784786).
We can't get over the technicalities of when seasons start and end on this forum, can we. In the first post, I stated that we're talking about September and October. Do I need to change the title to get people to understand?

Anyways, in Wisconsin, winter starts when there is an accumulating snow that sticks on the ground for 3+ days, roughly. Spring starts when the majority of the snow melts, which is sometimes in Feburary, sometimes in March, or sometimes in April.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: DaBigE on November 11, 2019, 09:56:30 PM
Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 09:51:24 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on November 11, 2019, 03:22:17 PM
Snow before December 21st? Exceptionally common in the Seattle area. Some of the most memorable storms from the past 20 years have been in November (http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/11/23/the-great-november-seattle-snowstorm-a-city-shuts-down/) and December ($) (https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/us/22snow.html).

According to this Seattle Times article (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/11/looking-back-at-memorable-seattle-area-snows/) from 2014, two-thirds of "memorable" snow storms in the Seattle area have occured before the winter solstice.

I've always joked that fall ends here in late November, not December. But that's not to say we won't see snow late in the year. I've seen snow in April (https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/photos-snow-in-seattle-on-april-18-2008/141784786).
We can't get over the technicalities of when seasons start and end on this forum, can we. In the first post, I stated that we're talking about September and October. Do I need to change the title to get people to understand?

Anyways, in Wisconsin, winter starts when there is an accumulating snow that sticks on the ground for 3+ days, roughly. Spring starts when the majority of the snow melts, which is sometimes in Feburary, sometimes in March, or sometimes in April.

By that metric, we will be back to spring by next weekend/early next week.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: renegade on November 12, 2019, 12:32:04 AM
Apparently, not so much around here ... we got a foot of snow today.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: jakeroot on November 12, 2019, 04:19:07 AM
Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 09:51:24 PM
Do I need to change the title to get people to understand?

Probably, yeah. September is mostly summer, not fall.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: ET21 on November 12, 2019, 09:32:44 AM
Ohhhh how times have changed, two record snowfalls for Chicago to kickoff the season. Had our snowiest Halloween ever and currently going through the earliest occurrence of arctic temps
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: paulthemapguy on November 12, 2019, 09:36:10 AM
Quote from: jakeroot on November 12, 2019, 04:19:07 AM
Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 09:51:24 PM
Do I need to change the title to get people to understand?

Probably, yeah. September is mostly summer, not fall.

Technically, September counts as "meteorological autumn," which begins September 1...and we are talking about weather heh

Anyway the high temperature here in Chicagoland is supposed to shatter the record lowest.  Previous lowest maximum for 11/12: 28F.  Today's forecast high: 21F.  This is absolutely insane.  There is no average high in Chicagoland below the 30s. So this could most accurately be described as January weather.

It's still construction season, too, so I was working outside yesterday in the falling snow.  We've had snow 10/30, 10/31, and 11/11.  Usually we don't get any measurable snow until around Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: US 89 on November 12, 2019, 10:29:24 AM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on November 12, 2019, 09:36:10 AM
Quote from: jakeroot on November 12, 2019, 04:19:07 AM
Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 09:51:24 PM
Do I need to change the title to get people to understand?

Probably, yeah. September is mostly summer, not fall.

Technically, September counts as "meteorological autumn," which begins September 1...and we are talking about weather heh

I know I've posted about this on here before, but the meteorological definitions make more sense. The equinoxes and solstices are sort of arbitrary dates when it comes to weather, and they generally occur a month ahead of actual weather events (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_lag). While the summer solstice is June 21, in most of the northern hemisphere the hottest month is July, and the weather in early June is far more summer-like than in mid-September. The issue is that astronomical summer is defined as a time of shortening day length between the solstice and equinox, which doesn't correlate with most people's view of summer as a time of the year with long, hot days.
Title: Re: How rare are fall snowstorms?
Post by: kphoger on November 12, 2019, 02:53:07 PM
Quote from: US 89 on November 12, 2019, 10:29:24 AM

Quote from: paulthemapguy on November 12, 2019, 09:36:10 AM

Quote from: jakeroot on November 12, 2019, 04:19:07 AM

Quote from: thspfc on November 11, 2019, 09:51:24 PM
Do I need to change the title to get people to understand?

Probably, yeah. September is mostly summer, not fall.

Technically, September counts as "meteorological autumn," which begins September 1...and we are talking about weather heh

I know I've posted about this on here before, but the meteorological definitions make more sense. The equinoxes and solstices are sort of arbitrary dates when it comes to weather, and they generally occur a month ahead of actual weather events (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_lag). While the summer solstice is June 21, in most of the northern hemisphere the hottest month is July, and the weather in early June is far more summer-like than in mid-September. The issue is that astronomical summer is defined as a time of shortening day length between the solstice and equinox, which doesn't correlate with most people's view of summer as a time of the year with long, hot days.

Bar bet:  The days get longer in the winter.

It's true!
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: thspfc on November 12, 2019, 04:58:19 PM
Changed title. I included November, since September and October snow is more or less impossible in some places.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on November 12, 2019, 06:02:52 PM
It's not rare for the mountains North of me to get snow as far low as 2000 ft in November. In fact they have had one such storm just a few days ago!
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: jakeroot on November 12, 2019, 06:54:21 PM
For the record, Seattle's September is more similar to August than October, at least most years. I know in most of the country, September is decidedly fall-feeling, but that isn't always the case here. I think this is also true for other parts of the Pacific Coast (Los Angeles in particular). This is why I thought it was weird that someone would include September in fall; A: it's mostly summer (just based on solstice dates), and B: in my experience, it's more similar to summer anyways.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: ce929wax on November 13, 2019, 12:13:32 AM
^There is definitely a difference between August and September here in Michigan.  Usually, we have one last heat wave around Labor Day weekend, and then the air gets crisper.  We go from an average high of 78 degrees on September 1st to an average high of 67 on September 30th.  In Waxahachie, TX where I lived for 8 years, it goes from 92 on September 1st to 83 on September 30th.  I think there is a lot more difference between 78 and 67 than there is between 92 and 83.

Data according to accuweather.com
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: KEVIN_224 on November 13, 2019, 01:52:01 PM
And Bradley International Airport (BDL) in Windsor Locks, CT (north of Hartford) goes from 70 on October 1st to 58 for Halloween. The low this morning for both Bradley and Hartford (HFD)? 17 degrees. Yup! :(
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: kphoger on November 13, 2019, 02:20:51 PM
Quote from: ce929wax on November 13, 2019, 12:13:32 AM
I think there is a lot more difference between 78 and 67 than there is between 92 and 83.

You are correct.  There's a 22% bigger difference.

78 - 67 = 11
92 - 83 = 9

11 = 9 + 2

2 ÷ 9 = 22.2222%
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: US 89 on November 13, 2019, 02:45:52 PM
Quote from: kphoger on November 13, 2019, 02:20:51 PM
÷

I haven't seen anybody use that character since I was in elementary school.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on November 13, 2019, 03:06:57 PM
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on November 12, 2019, 06:02:52 PM
It's not rare for the mountains North of me to get snow as far low as 2000 ft in November. In fact they have had one such storm just a few days ago!

Even better, the mountains have now so much snow, several ski resorts have scheduled the earliest season start since 2008.
Quote from: kphoger on November 13, 2019, 02:20:51 PM÷

Never heard that. Common parlance is "/".
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: jeffandnicole on November 13, 2019, 03:45:06 PM
Quote from: ce929wax on November 13, 2019, 12:13:32 AM
^There is definitely a difference between August and September here in Michigan.  Usually, we have one last heat wave around Labor Day weekend, and then the air gets crisper.  We go from an average high of 78 degrees on September 1st to an average high of 67 on September 30th.  In Waxahachie, TX where I lived for 8 years, it goes from 92 on September 1st to 83 on September 30th.  I think there is a lot more difference between 78 and 67 than there is between 92 and 83.

Data according to accuweather.com

Quote from: kphoger on November 13, 2019, 02:20:51 PM
Quote from: ce929wax on November 13, 2019, 12:13:32 AM
I think there is a lot more difference between 78 and 67 than there is between 92 and 83.

You are correct.  There's a 22% bigger difference.

78 - 67 = 11
92 - 83 = 9

11 = 9 + 2

2 ÷ 9 = 22.2222%

Actually, it's incorrect. 

You're calculating this based on that the temperature bottom floor is 0.  For temperature readings, 0 means nothing other than it's damn cold outside. 32 is freezing. 

If you want to calculate the difference properly, you would need to use Absolute 0, which is -459.67 degrees F.

Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: kphoger on November 13, 2019, 03:58:49 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 13, 2019, 03:45:06 PM

Quote from: ce929wax on November 13, 2019, 12:13:32 AM
^There is definitely a difference between August and September here in Michigan.  Usually, we have one last heat wave around Labor Day weekend, and then the air gets crisper.  We go from an average high of 78 degrees on September 1st to an average high of 67 on September 30th.  In Waxahachie, TX where I lived for 8 years, it goes from 92 on September 1st to 83 on September 30th.  I think there is a lot more difference between 78 and 67 than there is between 92 and 83.

Data according to accuweather.com

Quote from: kphoger on November 13, 2019, 02:20:51 PM

Quote from: ce929wax on November 13, 2019, 12:13:32 AM
I think there is a lot more difference between 78 and 67 than there is between 92 and 83.

You are correct.  There's a 22% bigger difference.

78 - 67 = 11
92 - 83 = 9

11 = 9 + 2

2 ÷ 9 = 22.2222%

Actually, it's incorrect. 

You're calculating this based on that the temperature bottom floor is 0.  For temperature readings, 0 means nothing other than it's damn cold outside. 32 is freezing. 

If you want to calculate the difference properly, you would need to use Absolute 0, which is -459.67 degrees F.

How am I assuming a floor of anything?  I'm simply saying that 11 is 22% bigger than 9.  I'm comparing the temperature differences, irrespective of the actual temperatures themselves.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: thspfc on November 13, 2019, 05:44:16 PM
Classic example of AARoads users taking things way out of context. The point was, 92 degrees and 83 degrees are both hot and don't feel that different. 78 and 67 is a difference between hot and warm, or mild.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: ce929wax on November 13, 2019, 08:03:20 PM
Quote from: thspfc on November 13, 2019, 05:44:16 PM
Classic example of AARoads users taking things way out of context. The point was, 92 degrees and 83 degrees are both hot and don't feel that different. 78 and 67 is a difference between hot and warm, or mild.

Yes, that was my point.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: Rothman on November 13, 2019, 11:13:05 PM
92 and 83 feel different.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: ce929wax on November 14, 2019, 02:32:01 AM
All right, for the anal-retentive among us, I never said that 92 and 83 didn't feel different, my point is that 92 and 83 feel less different than 78 and 67.  For instance, if you are in a room, 78 degrees is going to likely feel hot, whereas 67 degrees is going to likely feel cool to cold.  In the same room, 92 degrees and 83 degrees are still going to feel hot to most people, but 92 is going to feel hotter than 83.

Now, we may return to our regularly scheduled thread.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: Mark68 on November 14, 2019, 10:48:16 AM
We may get a minor snowfall as early as September. I believe the record earliest snowfall in Denver was September 3. Actually, when I first moved to Colorado (down in the Springs), there was measurable snowfall on September 13.

Generally, the first measurable snowfall occurs in early October. Been there, done that already this year. One of the biggest storms I've seen since moving here occurred on October 23-25, 1997. About 30" of snowfall (mostly on the 24th).
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: cl94 on November 18, 2019, 09:36:15 AM
5 years ago today was the 2014 blizzard in Buffalo. Parts of the inner metro got 7 feet of snow, while others (such as where I lived at the time) got less than an inch. I took the below picture at the UB North Campus.

(https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/75196354_3017988128213859_8317863257205374976_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_eui2=AeFwwrGl3QjPy1Ah5LQ7nJmdRbPEuwP5d6u1fUXsxMjqVQOkCyFpS5TBbDw-oLg4eqH8aQl7o1nBrfQIcrC0SVtfVCNByPIKjobz6M_rUqZb9A&_nc_oc=AQkDd6UT72d6kKojLcqvCdUL2wHc4JJPEu-D4hRNnNTV4_0MwhxIabScDyrbm9DdWGM&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=a40a5444fc181cc7a7afb39acb96220c&oe=5E44C838)
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: D-Dey65 on December 27, 2019, 12:11:38 AM
Quote from: cl94 on November 18, 2019, 09:36:15 AM
5 years ago today was the 2014 blizzard in Buffalo. Parts of the inner metro got 7 feet of snow, while others (such as where I lived at the time) got less than an inch. I took the below picture at the UB North Campus.

(https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/75196354_3017988128213859_8317863257205374976_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_eui2=AeFwwrGl3QjPy1Ah5LQ7nJmdRbPEuwP5d6u1fUXsxMjqVQOkCyFpS5TBbDw-oLg4eqH8aQl7o1nBrfQIcrC0SVtfVCNByPIKjobz6M_rUqZb9A&_nc_oc=AQkDd6UT72d6kKojLcqvCdUL2wHc4JJPEu-D4hRNnNTV4_0MwhxIabScDyrbm9DdWGM&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=a40a5444fc181cc7a7afb39acb96220c&oe=5E44C838)
The very blizzard that my aunt feared I was going to drive through on the way home from NYC, and my uncle had to calm her fears and reassure her that I wasn't going anywhere near it.

See this post (https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=16931.msg2144798#msg2144798) if you don't know what I'm talking about.

Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: paulthemapguy on December 27, 2019, 06:48:13 PM
Quote from: cl94 on November 18, 2019, 09:36:15 AM
5 years ago today was the 2014 blizzard in Buffalo. Parts of the inner metro got 7 feet of snow, while others (such as where I lived at the time) got less than an inch. I took the below picture at the UB North Campus.

I remember my mind being completely blown by the snow totals.  I was losing my marbles trying to imagine 7 feet of snow.  The most snow I've ever seen is about two feet.  Lake effect snow is insane.
Title: Re: How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?
Post by: Ben114 on January 04, 2020, 07:31:59 PM
November is fairly common for a few inches. Last year we got around 8 inches in November.