News:

Thank you for your patience during the Forum downtime while we upgraded the software. Welcome back and see this thread for some new features and other changes to the forum.

Main Menu

Tropical cyclone tracking thread

Started by CNGL-Leudimin, May 07, 2015, 11:08:01 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Hurricane Rex

Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 21, 2018, 07:30:58 PM
Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (We've had TEN now) could hit Cat 5
The forecast from the NHC isn't even updated yet. This isn't looking good. Good chance of hitting cat 5, but I don't think it will make landfall above a cat 3.

LG-TP260

ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.


Hurricane Rex

ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

Interstate 69 Fan

Apparently I’m a fan of I-69.  Who knew.

US 89

#528
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 22, 2018, 09:18:41 AM
Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing this? The NHC website is still saying 155 mph for me. Although I think NHC should have upgraded it...

Interstate 69 Fan

Quote from: US 89 on October 22, 2018, 10:15:43 AM
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 22, 2018, 09:18:41 AM
Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing this? The NHC website is still saying 155 mph for me. Although I think NHC should have upgraded it...
ATCF, or the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System.
If you want to see it, here’s the link: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Note: You read it as follows - Internal Designation (XXL, L is for Atlantic, XX is numbers) Name, Date, Time (UTC), Location, Basin, Winds (in knots), and pressure.

NHC will likely up it momentarily.
Apparently I’m a fan of I-69.  Who knew.

WillWeaverRVA

Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 21, 2018, 07:30:58 PM
Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (We've had TEN now) could hit Cat 5

It's a Category 5 now.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

CNGL-Leudimin

Even the NHC has slipped and called it "Wilma" :sombrero::

Quote from: NHC's forecast discussion on hurricane Willa no. 10
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

Hurricane Rex

Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on October 22, 2018, 04:39:29 PM
Even the NHC has slipped and called it "Wilma" :sombrero::

Quote from: NHC's forecast discussion on hurricane Willa no. 10
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

CBS radio news called Wilma. NEWSFLASH: Wilma is retired, learn to distinguish, especially the NHC.

That deescalated quickly. Willia went from 115 mph to 45 mph in less than 3 hours.
ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

CNGL-Leudimin

Wilma is retired in the Atlantic only. It could still replace Willa in the Eastern Pacific if needed. There are several names in the Eastern Pacific lists that have been retired in the Atlantic before the start of current lists (Celia and Dora come to mind). I wonder what NHC would do in the improbable case a storm named Celia makes it across the isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

WillWeaverRVA

The eye of Category 5 Super Typhoon Yutu is currently passing over Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands with winds of 155 knots (180 mph), and the NOAA ASOS weather stations in Tinian and Saipan have both failed.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

WillWeaverRVA

Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on October 24, 2018, 03:44:52 AM
Wilma is retired in the Atlantic only. It could still replace Willa in the Eastern Pacific if needed. There are several names in the Eastern Pacific lists that have been retired in the Atlantic before the start of current lists (Celia and Dora come to mind). I wonder what NHC would do in the improbable case a storm named Celia makes it across the isthmus of Tehuantepec.

NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Beltway

#536
Quote from: WillWeaverRVA on October 24, 2018, 12:05:01 PM
NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.

It is rare but a storm could cross Central America and have existed in both basins.  So that is a reason why to not utilize a name that has been retired from one of the basins.
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

Hurricane Rex

Quote from: Beltway on October 24, 2018, 05:37:23 PM
Quote from: WillWeaverRVA on October 24, 2018, 12:05:01 PM
NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.

It is rare but a storm could cross Central America and have existed in both basins.  So that is a reason why to not utilize a name that has been retired from one of the basins.
The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

LG-TP260

ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

Beltway

Quote from: Hurricane Rex on October 24, 2018, 11:55:00 PM
]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

Apparently it is possible, but there are no known examples yet.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/ASK/hurricanes.html
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

CNGL-Leudimin

I remember late last year when the GFS went crazy and formed a "tropical anticyclone" just North of New Guinea which went to cross the Equator into the Northern Hemisphere. Even better, it bombed that system into a 871 mbar monster typhoon. In the end Tembin formed in the Northern Hemisphere and went West instead of North, and peaked only at category 2.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

Beltway

The South Atlantic had a hurricane in 2004, the only one known in 200 years of modern storm tracking.

Vertical wind shears in the South Atlantic are usually too strong for hurricanes.  Winds in the upper troposphere (about 6 miles high) are 20+ mph faster than winds at the ocean surface.  This difference, or shear, rips storms apart before they intensify too much.
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

WillWeaverRVA

Quote from: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 06:09:54 AM
Quote from: Hurricane Rex on October 24, 2018, 11:55:00 PM
]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

Apparently it is possible, but there are no known examples yet.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/ASK/hurricanes.html

It is theoretically possible given the relative lack of Coriolis force near the equator. The tropical low that gave rise to Tropical Cyclone Agni in the Arabian Sea in 2004 briefly crossed into the Southern Hemisphere and was noted by RSMC La Réunion in their end-of-season report. Several global models depicted Tropical Depression 09C in 2015 and Hurricane Pali in 2016 in the Central Pacific also crossing the equator, although neither system survived long enough to do so (although the remnants of Pali did straddle the equator before dissipating).

Outflow from low-latitude tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere can extend across the Equator (it happens frequently with tropical cyclones in the South Pacific), and sometimes cutoff lows form that can give rise to tropical cyclones, although these aren't exactly "equator-crossing" systems.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Beltway

A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

WillWeaverRVA

Quote from: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 12:43:40 PM
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.

...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Beltway

Quote from: WillWeaverRVA on October 25, 2018, 02:01:36 PM
Quote from: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 12:43:40 PM
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.

You just posted that it was theoretically possible in a post this morning.
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

WillWeaverRVA

Quote from: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: WillWeaverRVA on October 25, 2018, 02:01:36 PM
Quote from: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 12:43:40 PM
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.

You just posted that it was theoretically possible in a post this morning.

I meant that the process of a tropical cyclone spinning down, then spinning back up in the opposite direction upon crossing the Equator wouldn't work. If it remained at a low latitude where the Coriolis effect is negligible, the system would just continue as an anticyclonic circulation that would gradually spin down and dissipate.
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Interstate 69 Fan

TC's can't cross it because the Coriolis affect - there isn't enough spin within 5 degrees of the equator.
Apparently I’m a fan of I-69.  Who knew.

bing101


Hurricane Rex

Another subtropical storm has formed: Oscar.

LG-TP260

ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

CNGL-Leudimin

#549
Again, why the freak they name subtropical storms? I don't recognize them, and thankfully they reanalized Alberto to have been a fully tropical storm before landfall. IMO Chantal, Erin and Melissa (third M in a row) should have been retired in 2007 instead of Dean, Felix and Noel. I also don't recognize tropical storms that weren't named because they were missed when they happened, but I recognize the Perfect Storm of 1991 as advisories were issued on it even they left the otherwise hurricane Henri unnamed as it had caused destruction before becoming a hurricane.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.



Opinions expressed here on belong solely to the poster and do not represent or reflect the opinions or beliefs of AARoads, its creators and/or associates.