Coronavirus pandemic

[Brandon]

I think we are to the point where it might be a good idea to take a chill and remind ourselves that things will be OK, and talk about some of the road-related impacts.

I'll second the chilling out.  The virus appears to have run its course where it started, with no new reported Wuhan cases, infecting a mere 3% of the total population in a very tightly packed city (tighter than even NYC).  I'm also more than a little sick of the comparisons to Italy, a county whose health wasn't all that great before the virus, has a different demography than the US (much older, about 1/4 of the population is over 60), and has a culture conducive to spreading the virus readily, i.e. holding a conversation 2 inches from someone's face and the need to hug/kiss when greeting.

[jeffandnicole]

I think we are to the point where it might be a good idea to take a chill and remind ourselves that things will be OK, and talk about some of the road-related impacts.

I'll second the chilling out.  The virus appears to have run its course where it started, with no new reported Wuhan cases, infecting a mere 3% of the total population in a very tightly packed city (tighter than even NYC).  I'm also more than a little sick of the comparisons to Italy, a county whose health wasn't all that great before the virus, has a different demography than the US (much older, about 1/4 of the population is over 60), and has a culture conducive to spreading the virus readily, i.e. holding a conversation 2 inches from someone's face and the need to hug/kiss when greeting.

I thought people also tried claiming that with Italy's wonderful free-healthcare system, they wouldn't get it so bad.

I'm also wondering what "No new cases" means.  Remember...this is the country that tried denying the disease in the first place.

Reading this paper, https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200319/coronavirus-wuhan-reports-no-new-cases-offering-hope-to-world , I found the two paragraphs to be interesting...

Wuhan was where the outbreak first took hold and thousands once lay sick or dying in hurriedly constructed hospitals. But Chinese authorities said Thursday that all 34 new cases recorded over the previous day had been imported from abroad.

Wuhan has been under a strict lockdown since January...The lockdown will be lifted there only if no additional cases have been reported for two consecutive weeks.

So - They went thru this for over 2 months.  The US is barely going on 2 weeks with shutdowns and closures.  We have a long ways to go, folks, and it's probably going to get worse before it gets better...

[kalvado]

That HAN (which has no signature, BTW, thus opening the possibility that it was approved by a committee or working group rather than an individual) is dated February 1, 2020.  Were we aware at the time that asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmission was possible?  I myself was not, until I read a MedicineNet article dated February 20 that was based on research (involving German evacuees from Hubei province) published in the New England Journal of Medicine on February 18.

This HAN put 100% faith on first line screening - which should have been one of cheese slices, if you know what that means.
As for committee.. This is what I mean by liberal application of capital punishment.



This is a problem of testing strategy and, as such, is separate from the quality control problems (the third reagent leading to inconclusive results) that held up testing until the CDC agreed that tests using just the first two elements could be accepted as valid.  That, in turn, is separate from the regulatory issues that prevented foreign tests from being used.  There is apparently another layer of potential problems that arise from labs varying in their ability to enforce the process control that is required for reliable results, and that has had implications for certifying labs to test.

I certainly agree that we need a full postmortem (along the lines of the 9/11 Commission and the Challenger and Columbia inquiries) on what went wrong with testing at a time when the US had just dozens of confirmed cases and containment without mass disruption was still an option.  But fairness requires us to hold the CDC scientists accountable on the basis of the information they had in hand when they had to make the critical decisions.  One aspect of the testing mess I have not been able to find much information about is the reliability of the foreign tests as compared to the CDC's.  I have read that in an early phase in their crisis, the Chinese were making do with tests that yielded a 50% false negative rate, and current tests are generically described as having a 10% false negative rate because throat and nose swabs don't always capture what the virus is doing in the bottom of the lungs.

Who was held personally responsible for any of those situations and suffered more than a job change?

I wouldn't put it on Trump. If anything, his attempts to bring EPA to reason were considered as nothing short of a crime against humanity. If the existing government structure survives the crisis, there has to be a very far-reaching postmortem with conclusions extended far beyond affected agencies. See above for some details.

[wanderer2575]

[hotdogPi]

Early yesterday, all 17 recovered cases went away. Now, there is an area of the US outside any particular state with 1 total case and 106 recovered cases, which means that there are -105 active cases there (which is said explicitly, not just implied).

Before that, Suriname and Curaçao were in the Arabian Sea, and Fench (sic) Guiana had a different number of cases from French Guiana, both of which have now been fixed.



Interestingly, Canada has approximately 1/10 the number of cases as the US and approximately 1/10 the total population. It's been this way the entire time. Are they having problems with testing kits, too, or do they legitimately have fewer cases?

[ixnay]

  Bill Richardson's "rail runner" is apparently shut down until at least April 6th.

New Mexico's commuter rail service, for those who do not know.

https://www.riometro.org/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=200

ixnay

[ixnay]

Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.

What was so 3rd world about Campbell County before the crisis?

ixnay

[ixnay]

Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.

Campbell is my first name. I guess I should try harder.

So should this Facebook exec, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Brown_(journalist)  Actually Campbell is her second (of two) middle names (IOW a four-namer).  I guess she's gone by Campbell all her life.

ixnay

[ixnay]

Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.

Is that where they make Campbell's Soup?

Campbell County, KY is named for a John Campbell.  Campbell Soup has no plants there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_County,_Kentucky

Campbell Soup Company is based in Camden County, New Jersey and was founded by Joseph A. Campbell.  Its nearest plant to Campbell County, KY is in outside Toledo, OH (don't know what products are made there).  Campbell's used to have a plant in Chestertown, MD where chicken was processed for Campbell's Chicken Noodle Soup which I grew up on (afaik no broths were made there).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Soup_Company

ixnay

[bandit957]

What was so 3rd world about Campbell County before the crisis?

Our sanitation, schools, and political corruption were absolutely terrible.

[kurumi]

Anyone that thinks the US is third world should humble themselves, to visit a third world society(which isn't hard, we border one) and gain some perspective.

I live in a third world country. It's called Campbell County.

Campbell is my first name. I guess I should try harder.

tbh I always assumed "Plutonic Panda" was an Ubuntu version :-)

[TheGrassGuy]

Early yesterday, all 17 recovered cases went away. Now, there is an area of the US outside any particular state with 1 total case and 106 recovered cases, which means that there are -105 active cases there (which is said explicitly, not just implied).

Before that, Suriname and Curaçao were in the Arabian Sea, and Fench (sic) Guiana had a different number of cases from French Guiana, both of which have now been fixed.

Huh?

[Bruce]

In order to have had stopped this virus from spreading, the borders to the United States would have had to been shut down back in January. No one would have ever allowed that and would have crucified anyone who suggested it.

IIRC, the Feds did that at that time WRT passenger airline flights from much or all of China and perhaps one or two other places in eastern Asia.  Yes, 'usual suspects' were reaming Donald Trump out for that for being an "anti-Asian *RACIST*!!!  ".



Mike

It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

Shutting the border in January would have been reasonable it if applied to all countries with cases. By that time, Italy and Iran were having their first signs of an outbreak, so they would have been included if the response was intended to contain the virus rather than spread more anti-Asian sentiment (which is quite pervasive in American society).

[sprjus4]

In order to have had stopped this virus from spreading, the borders to the United States would have had to been shut down back in January. No one would have ever allowed that and would have crucified anyone who suggested it.

IIRC, the Feds did that at that time WRT passenger airline flights from much or all of China and perhaps one or two other places in eastern Asia.  Yes, 'usual suspects' were reaming Donald Trump out for that for being an "anti-Asian *RACIST*!!!  ".



Mike

It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

Shutting the border in January would have been reasonable it if applied to all countries with cases. By that time, Italy and Iran were having their first signs of an outbreak, so they would have been included if the response was intended to contain the virus rather than spread more anti-Asian sentiment (which is quite pervasive in American society).

Virus starts in China and was spreading quickly throughout, so in response he restricts access in an effort to reduce the spread of the virus. But since he didn't restrict access immediately to another area that just began it's growth, he's a racist  This definitely deserves impeachment, maybe even prison.

[J N Winkler]

Early yesterday, all 17 recovered cases went away. Now, there is an area of the US outside any particular state with 1 total case and 106 recovered cases, which means that there are -105 active cases there (which is said explicitly, not just implied).

You are talking about the JHU dashboard?  It's been flaky for a while--numbers given don't match numbers announced by state health departments, Kansas has one case with location marked as "US, US" (the dot appears within Kansas' borders presumably because it is in the middle of the lower 48), Alaska was shown without cases long after it had its first case, Italian numbers stayed out of date for almost 24 hours some days, etc.

Interestingly, Canada has approximately 1/10 the number of cases as the US and approximately 1/10 the total population. It's been this way the entire time. Are they having problems with testing kits, too, or do they legitimately have fewer cases?

My next question would be what testing criteria the Canadian authorities are applying and how these differ from the ones used by Italy (where testing was much more extensive but cases were growing without control before the lockdown) and South Korea (more testing even than Italy, but much better control).

[J N Winkler]

This HAN put 100% faith on first line screening - which should have been one of cheese slices, if you know what that means.

You are talking about the Swiss-cheese theory of accident causation?  Yes.  The decision to proceed as if there was no asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread absolutely should be part of any postmortem.

Who was held personally responsible for any of those situations and suffered more than a job change?

No one.  Even if you are an engineer and sign off on a structural detail that eventually results in a balcony collapse that kills over a hundred people, you can carry on with multiple PE licenses, only the one effective in the state where the collapse occurred being voided.

I agree that immunity creates opportunities for moral hazard.  This is a fundamental problem that spans many professions, both in and out of government, and is part of the reason sovereign immunity is now qualified and we now have tort claims legislation.   But I don't think we have found a good solution yet.  Litigation really isn't one because it is high-friction and full of unintended consequences.

[kalvado]

This HAN put 100% faith on first line screening - which should have been one of cheese slices, if you know what that means.

You are talking about the Swiss-cheese theory of accident causation?  Yes.  The decision to proceed as if there was no asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread absolutely should be part of any postmortem.

even without pre-simptomatic spread, assuming a person who unboarded healthy would run to ER with very early symptoms of common cold is a bit strange. Mild infection in many people was already documented.

Who was held personally responsible for any of those situations and suffered more than a job change?

No one.  Even if you are an engineer and sign off on a structural detail that eventually results in a balcony collapse that kills over a hundred people, you can carry on with multiple PE licenses, only the one effective in the state where the collapse occurred being voided.

I agree that immunity creates opportunities for moral hazard.  This is a fundamental problem that spans many professions, both in and out of government, and is part of the reason sovereign immunity is now qualified and we now have tort claims legislation.   But I don't think we have found a good solution yet.  Litigation really isn't one because it is high-friction and full of unintended consequences.

Would be a good precedent to set.

[hbelkins]

It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

Note to SMF developers: You need to add a :poop: emoji.

[LM117]

NC has announced it's first community spread case.

http://www.wilsontimes.com/stories/wilson-has-first-case-of-community-spread-in-nc,204162

Also, Bridgestone and Goodyear are temporarily shutting down their tire plants.

https://www.bridgestoneamericas.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2020/bridgestone-americas-announces-temporary-phased-shutdown-of-manu

https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/20200318/goodyear-halts-tire-production-in-americas-europe

[Rothman]

It fits the pattern. Trump is a racist person. He has demonstrated it over and over again.

Note to SMF developers: You need to add a :poop: emoji.

Because of your response?

[jakeroot]

This thread is completely fucked if we keep getting into politics. Which is necessarily part of controlling a viral outbreak, but we ought to be a bit more careful!

[bing101]

https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-stay-home/

Update California has issued a statewide shelter in place order.

[bandit957]

https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-stay-home/

Update California has issued a statewide shelter in place order.

Good luck trying to keep 40 million people locked in their homes for weeks on end.

[wxfree]

In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze

[Max Rockatansky]

Grabbed an 18 pack of beer and set up a couple additions to my home gym.  I'm still looking for the official order here in California but I know it doesn't prohibit outdoor activity.  To that end I'm still trying to see the extent of outdoor activity that can be had.  Some snow shoe hiking up in the Sierras might be a good way to get off grid for a day or two.