Coronavirus pandemic

[RobbieL2415]

Re. CA stay-at-home order:It is not a restriction on freedom of movement.  Its basically the same as what other states have been doing; business closed and no large gatherings.  At no time has it been implied that streets will be closed to vehicluar traffic or people cannot simply go out in public.

[UnumProvident101]

in Chattanooga, TN the mayor of my hometown issued an executive order suspending dine-in services and that includes gyms and bars until further notice

[Max Rockatansky]

Re. CA stay-at-home order:It is not a restriction on freedom of movement.  Its basically the same as what other states have been doing; business closed and no large gatherings.  At no time has it been implied that streets will be closed to vehicluar traffic or people cannot simply go out in public.

That's what it seems, and to that extent much of the state has been under similar orders already.  Nonetheless it doesn't appear the official order has been published online yet, at least I haven't found it on the State webpage.

To that end the only one of the nine National Parks that has raised questions about visitation for hiking purposes so far has been Pinnacles:

https://www.nps.gov/pinn/index.htm

[Max Rockatansky]

Likely when the current California legislative order is published it will probably be posted on this webpage:

https://covid19.ca.gov/

Edit:  The order was posted but it is very vague and not really specific about much of anything aside from encouraging people to stay home.  There is a short list of essential businesses and non-essential businesses.  To that end much of what the order entails seems to be at the moment a massive unclear gray area.  A lot of specific questions people are asking apparently are answered in news stories but I'm usually really hesitant to rely on those without some sort of official Legislative or notice from someone in the State.  For the moment I haven't really seen much change at all but it is only 6:13 AM. 

[US71]

Arkansas has ordered closed all dine-in facilities. For now, they can still offer carry-out or delivery.

[mgk920]

In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze

Bars refilling growlers is still perfectly fine for carryout here in Wisconsin.



Mike

[ftballfan]

Re. CA stay-at-home order:It is not a restriction on freedom of movement.  Its basically the same as what other states have been doing; business closed and no large gatherings.  At no time has it been implied that streets will be closed to vehicluar traffic or people cannot simply go out in public.

It took CA a long time to do this statewide (after most large cities in the state had already put in place similar measures).

[bandit957]

Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.

[kwellada]

Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.

I've always had this saying
If you vote for people who say they don't believe government works, you don't get to act surprised when in fact government doesn't work.

[sprjus4]

Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.

I've always had this saying
If you vote for people who say they don't believe government works, you don't get to act surprised when in fact government doesn't work.

Pretty much any politician.

[LM117]

In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze

VA is also allowing it.

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/114-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-in-va-northam-asks-restaurants-to-abide-by-people-limit

[US71]

Nothing brings out the serial incompetence in our public officials quite like a major crisis.

-back on topic-

Arkansas is allowing restaurants to sell beer & wine for off-premises consumption for 30 days.
https://katv.com/news/local/push-made-in-arkansas-to-sell-mixed-drinks-other-alcohol-for-off-site-consumption

[hbelkins]

Yesterday, I was directed to begin telecommuting. I did not ask for it and in fact preferred not to. It does save me 30 miles/45 minutes one-way to work, and the resulting gas use and vehicle wear. Much of the day has been spent corresponding with co-workers and then I'll have to tackle getting VPN access, which is going to entail backing up my Mac (I haven't done a Time Machine backup in a couple of weeks), transferring that backup to an external drive that has El Capitan installed (I'm still using 10.6 because it's the last OS that runs my full version of Adobe CS 2), and then booting from that external drive and installing the requisite VPN and security software.

I'll still be going to the office at least one day a week, probably two or three days depending on what's going on.

[1995hoo]

In Texas, the governor banned dining in, and has suspended the law against carryout and delivery of alcoholic beverages from bars and restaurants.  This is going around on Facebook:

Whole U.S.: We are Freaking out

Texas: We now deliver booze

Bars refilling growlers is still perfectly fine for carryout here in Wisconsin.



Mike

Port City in Alexandria will sell beer to-go in their parking lot and can now deliver beer within a 10-mile radius, but they said for sanitary reasons they will not refill customers' growlers–you either have to buy a new growler, crowler(s), a six-pack, or a case.

[tolbs17]

will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?

[kalvado]

will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?

Well..

Expect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.

OK, first milestone - just past 1500 in US. by "next week" I meant more like weekend counts... Not thrilled with my guess, would greatly prefer if it was other way.

We passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.
There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01

[jmd41280]

In PA, Gov. Wolf ordered all nonessential/non-life-sustaining businesses to close as of last night. Like in many other states, restaurants are open for take-out/delivery but not eating in. Most other businesses, aside from pharmacies, physician's offices, grocery stores, and gas stations, are closed.

Being that I work in a behavioral health clinic, my office remained open (as we are considered essential) and we are seeing clients (with precautions, of course, including social distancing, pre-screening for Covid-19 risk, and frequent disinfecting). Additionally, any counselor or other staff that has traveled out of the area has to be screened by HR before returning to work.

With that being said, we're now allowed to conduct counseling sessions over the phone for any client that is ill, high-risk for severe complications if they were to get Covid-19, or does not feel comfortable coming into the clinic for an in-person session. Additionally, anyone ill and self-quarantining can conduct phone sessions from home.

[tolbs17]

will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?

Well..

Expect 1500 by next week, 15k by 04/01, million by end of May. Favorable conditions overall as peak goes into summer when it may be easier to handle.

Those are certainly testable predictions!  Italy, with about one-sixth the population, is already well past the 7,000 mark.

I am hoping conditions won't be quite that bad in the US, in part because a million confirmed cases translates to about 100,000 severe enough to require hospitalization and 30,000 deaths.  I don't think any US jurisdiction is likely to end up digging mass graves to dispose of the bodies of COVID-19 victims like Philadelphia had to do when the 1918 flu hit, but the US as a whole has only 95,000 ICU beds.  In Britain there is already talk of establishing field hospitals for COVID-19 patients.

OK, first milestone - just past 1500 in US. by "next week" I meant more like weekend counts... Not thrilled with my guess, would greatly prefer if it was other way.

We passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.
There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01

100 million?! That's about 1/3 of the US population! But yeah, we should slow down. I graduate this year and I don't want to miss it! So the bad taste shortages prolly mean it's fake.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We are already approaching 20,000. And we could even surpass Italy!

If you look at the states, the majority of it is happening in New York. Washington state suddenly slowed down and that's a good thing.

[J N Winkler]

We passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.  There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01

If the current rate holds, deaths are likely to become the really interesting statistic--100 million cases translates to thousands (potentially tens of thousands) of deaths per day.

[bandit957]

If you look at the states, the majority of it is happening in New York. Washington state suddenly slowed down and that's a good thing.

And Washington state didn't have to issue huge lockdowns. The media is hounding the governor about this and demanding lockdowns, but I don't think it's locked down yet.

[Brandon]

will we surpass China when it comes to confirmed cases soaring dangerously?

I sincerely doubt it.

[kalvado]

We passed second one - 15k - today, 10 days early. I hate to think what would happen next.  There are already bad test shortages, so expect "slow down" as milder cases wouldn't even register. If the current rate holds, it is about 100M cases by 05/01

If the current rate holds, deaths are likely to become the really interesting statistic--100 million cases translates to thousands (potentially tens of thousands) of deaths per day.

Interetingly enough, emerging answer seems to be "so what? It is what it isl"

US has a death rate of 0.9% annually, expected to go up to 1.05 as baby boomers expire. Say 3 million people a year, just shy of 10k/day. Double that for a year? So it is what it is.

Current predictions are that most people will get sick, sooner or later. 50% optimistically, 90% pessemistically. herd immunity will kick in after that.
If mortality rate would be 2% (realistic, as some treatment strategies may emerge even without proper cure), we're talking 2 years worth of deaths no matter what - so 3x death rate for 12 months and then back to normal rate, even maybe reduced as a lot of infirm people would die early.

Quarantine buys time in this case - not anything else. Weeks, maybe months of time - not years. So until something REALLY drastic happens within 2 months - quarantine is not helping. There may be some suppression strategies - but I don't see them deployed, and that should have started last week. But deer in headlights is the symbol of the situation.

So, my prediction - quarantine mostly lifted in 3-6 weeks, some social distancing enforced - severely cut international travel, lockout for 65+ olds. And it is what it is and let it be, some tent hospitals and mass graves may be involved, we cannot abandon our economy.

[kalvado]

And a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.
Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.
But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.

[Scott5114]

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...

[kalvado]

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...

But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.