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Author Topic: Coronavirus pandemic  (Read 318973 times)

Max Rockatansky

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #900 on: March 20, 2020, 06:29:38 PM »

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...

My wife volunteered for community work rather than staying at home.  My Cousin did the same thing out in Michigan and is being monitored presently.  One thing I can definitely say about them both is they sincerely care about helping people even if that puts them in harms way.  For what itís worth I can say that I have any objection to my wife doing what she thinks is right.  To that end, I donít get a free pass on being out of public exposure either and it has gotten me exposed to serious stuff in the past.  We did tell immediate family that maybe visiting us isnít the best idea for awhile.   
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Scott5114

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #901 on: March 20, 2020, 06:33:26 PM »

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are

I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.

Check what you wrote again. :spin:
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Bruce

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #902 on: March 20, 2020, 07:07:59 PM »

Washington's slowdown in the number of confirmed cases does not mean that the virus isn't spreading as far. We've only tested 14,000 people as of yesterday, which is only a fraction of the number needed to get a good read on how far it's spread.

The Seattle area has several distinct strains that have been moving around the community since January, according to the mapping work done by the Seattle Flu Study. That means hundreds of undetected cases from then.

J N Winkler

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #903 on: March 20, 2020, 07:15:21 PM »

And a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are tested where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.

But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.

I think we are dealing with a lag here.  Italy tested more extensively than the US (including NY?) from the beginning, with fewer interruptions due to self-inflicted constraints on testing, and it is only in the last few days that deaths have really taken off.  I think that even with hundreds or thousands of apparently mild cases diluting the really serious ones, NY has the potential for its case fatality ratio to catch up with that of the rest of the US or even China (4%) if it does not overrun ICU bed or ventilator capacity.  If either is overrun, deaths will climb even faster (it will be a running-into-the-wall effect) and might correspond to rates seen with the 1918 flu.

I see what you mean by "It is what it is" and the deer-in-the-headlights effect, and it is a stylized fact that leadership at the time and for generations afterward acted as if they had total amnesia about the flu in 1918, but I'd think a coronavirus death toll equal to several multiples of normal population turnover would have long-lasting reverberations.  (The US had 106 million people by the 1920 census, and the 1918 flu killed 675,000, so it killed maybe 0.6%-0.7% of the 1918 population.)
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stormwatch7721

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #904 on: March 20, 2020, 07:29:30 PM »

Staff, please lock this. This is going to cause mass panic

LGL322DL

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #905 on: March 20, 2020, 07:31:25 PM »

Staff, please lock this. This is going to cause mass panic

LGL322DL

COVID-19 doesn't spread via forum posts.
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stormwatch7721

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #906 on: March 20, 2020, 07:32:39 PM »

Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL

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Max Rockatansky

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #907 on: March 20, 2020, 07:37:36 PM »

Staff, please lock this. This is going to cause mass panic

LGL322DL

COVID-19 doesn't spread via forum posts.

Nor does some of the more outlandish thoughts on ďwhat to doĒ that have sprung from it.  If we were going to lock the thread something like suggesting executions would have been more appropriate.  Nobody on here is an expert one way or the other as far as I can tell.  If news is worrisome probably the best advice anyone can give is to ignore it and decide what youíll do or think for yourself.   

Apparently the National Parks in California are shuttering at request of the State.  It looks like right now that probably only is a California-only thing. 
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DaBigE

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #908 on: March 20, 2020, 07:38:48 PM »

Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL

I think you need a 14-day quarantine from this thread. You're getting a bit too worked up over a lot of speculation with some facts mixed in.
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stormwatch7721

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #909 on: March 20, 2020, 07:47:45 PM »

I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL

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TheGrassGuy

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #910 on: March 20, 2020, 07:49:30 PM »

I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic
Second that

LGL322DL
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #911 on: March 20, 2020, 07:50:12 PM »

On a less grim note, here is a video on what people used to do before toilet paper became a thing:


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kalvado

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #912 on: March 20, 2020, 07:50:47 PM »

Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL
Add Honorable Gavin Newsom, Governor of State of California to the list as number 3.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf
He expects 56% of CA population to be infected within 8 weeks - that is 25 million people.

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AsphaltPlanet

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #913 on: March 20, 2020, 07:54:59 PM »

And a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are tested where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.

But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.

I think we are dealing with a lag here.  Italy tested more extensively than the US (including NY?) from the beginning, with fewer interruptions due to self-inflicted constraints on testing, and it is only in the last few days that deaths have really taken off.  I think that even with hundreds or thousands of apparently mild cases diluting the really serious ones, NY has the potential for its case fatality ratio to catch up with that of the rest of the US or even China (4%) if it does not overrun ICU bed or ventilator capacity.  If either is overrun, deaths will climb even faster (it will be a running-into-the-wall effect) and might correspond to rates seen with the 1918 flu.

I see what you mean by "It is what it is" and the deer-in-the-headlights effect, and it is a stylized fact that leadership at the time and for generations afterward acted as if they had total amnesia about the flu in 1918, but I'd think a coronavirus death toll equal to several multiples of normal population turnover would have long-lasting reverberations.  (The US had 106 million people by the 1920 census, and the 1918 flu killed 675,000, so it killed maybe 0.6%-0.7% of the 1918 population.)

The only counter to that is that there are other jurisdictions were the death toll hasn't, for whatever reason, spiked the same way it has in Italy.

Japan and South Korea have managed their infections pretty well, and both haven't seen the death toll that we are seeing in other locations.  Germany also has very few deaths for it's amount of infections as well.  It's certainly possible that the cases will in time get more severe in Germany, but their early prognosis is somewhat positive.

I'm just saying all of this because there is a lot of unknown about this disease at this point.  It might affect different populations differently for a variety of different reasons.  Or it might not, we're just going to have to wait and see.
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #914 on: March 20, 2020, 07:57:57 PM »

Well we got two users who posted dire predictions

LGL322DL
Add Honorable Gavin Newsom, Governor of State of California to the list as number 3.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf
He expects 56% of CA population to be infected within 8 weeks - that is 25 million people.

Yet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  Iím not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.   

Regarding 1918, isnít that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I donít seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.  To that end, one might actual attempts to intervene would yield far better results by default.  Besides, the Spanish Flu was a follow up to World War I and largely distributed quickly because it infected so many in the literal trenches of war. 
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tolbs17

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #915 on: March 20, 2020, 08:01:50 PM »

I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
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kalvado

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #916 on: March 20, 2020, 08:07:51 PM »

And a bit more on US case count. NY launched a really aggressive test campaign, caught a lot of cases and run out of tests.

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are tested where we are; inofficially I hear that in NYC even those are denied tests, told to don their masks and get back to patients.

But right now, NY has most of the cases in US - but 0.5% deaths-to-cases ratio. US without NY is about 2%, Italy above 8%. So consider adjusting detected cases accordingly to account for testing scope.

I think we are dealing with a lag here.  Italy tested more extensively than the US (including NY?) from the beginning, with fewer interruptions due to self-inflicted constraints on testing, and it is only in the last few days that deaths have really taken off.  I think that even with hundreds or thousands of apparently mild cases diluting the really serious ones, NY has the potential for its case fatality ratio to catch up with that of the rest of the US or even China (4%) if it does not overrun ICU bed or ventilator capacity.  If either is overrun, deaths will climb even faster (it will be a running-into-the-wall effect) and might correspond to rates seen with the 1918 flu.

I see what you mean by "It is what it is" and the deer-in-the-headlights effect, and it is a stylized fact that leadership at the time and for generations afterward acted as if they had total amnesia about the flu in 1918, but I'd think a coronavirus death toll equal to several multiples of normal population turnover would have long-lasting reverberations.  (The US had 106 million people by the 1920 census, and the 1918 flu killed 675,000, so it killed maybe 0.6%-0.7% of the 1918 population.)

The only counter to that is that there are other jurisdictions were the death toll hasn't, for whatever reason, spiked the same way it has in Italy.

Japan and South Korea have managed their infections pretty well, and both haven't seen the death toll that we are seeing in other locations.  Germany also has very few deaths for it's amount of infections as well.  It's certainly possible that the cases will in time get more severe in Germany, but their early prognosis is somewhat positive.

I'm just saying all of this because there is a lot of unknown about this disease at this point.  It might affect different populations differently for a variety of different reasons.  Or it might not, we're just going to have to wait and see.
There is certainly a possibility and hope that a milder strain of the virus would take over. This is actually Darwin's theory in action, as severe cases get isolated and treated while milder cases suffer through the disease a home - and spread further. We may end up, as the president promised, a season of very bad flu. Keep yuyr fingers crossed and pray hard.
I don't know what goes on in Germany and Japan. I know someone who wholeheartedly believes Japan hides their caseload to avoid Olympics cancellation (I don't think Olympics has a chance at this point). So far, Germany has a mix of its own strand and Switzerland-Netherlands strand. Second one doesn't seem much milder than average.
I still assume Germany is doing agressive testing. Korea certainly did testing and forensic tracing - and would be in a much better state if ONE person had a little more brains in her head.

PS. I still maintain that there are government employees in this situation who don't deserve any mercy. And capital punishment is still constitutional in US, you know.
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webny99

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #917 on: March 20, 2020, 08:10:55 PM »

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are
I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.
Check what you wrote again. :spin:

He missed it, and so did I until just now.  :D
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 08:13:59 PM by webny99 »
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kalvado

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #918 on: March 20, 2020, 08:14:19 PM »

Officially, it is "healthcare workers with symptoms" only are testes where we are
I know it's ballsy to be healthcare worker in this environment, but...
But those are in contact with sick and can easily become superspreaders.
Check what you wrote again. :spin:

He missed it, and so did I until just now.  :D
I actually missed it and asked for an explanation - so I did even worse! :pan:
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noelbotevera

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #919 on: March 20, 2020, 08:21:34 PM »

I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
hey guys remember when half the world died to a couple of rats
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AsphaltPlanet

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #920 on: March 20, 2020, 08:27:57 PM »

There is certainly a possibility and hope that a milder strain of the virus would take over. This is actually Darwin's theory in action, as severe cases get isolated and treated while milder cases suffer through the disease a home - and spread further. We may end up, as the president promised, a season of very bad flu. Keep yuyr fingers crossed and pray hard.
I don't know what goes on in Germany and Japan. I know someone who wholeheartedly believes Japan hides their caseload to avoid Olympics cancellation (I don't think Olympics has a chance at this point). So far, Germany has a mix of its own strand and Switzerland-Netherlands strand. Second one doesn't seem much milder than average.
I still assume Germany is doing agressive testing. Korea certainly did testing and forensic tracing - and would be in a much better state if ONE person had a little more brains in her head.

PS. I still maintain that there are government employees in this situation who don't deserve any mercy. And capital punishment is still constitutional in US, you know.

The Japan theory is interesting -- I've read that in other places, but I've also read that if the severity was being downplayed by their lack of testing, severe cases would still be showing up in their hospitals right now, which as far as I know, hasn't happened yet en masse.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 08:49:48 PM by AsphaltPlanet »
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webny99

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #921 on: March 20, 2020, 08:30:42 PM »

Here in Western New York, we're in a really weird spot: Almost 50% (!) of all reported US cases are in New York state.
Yet there are 10 different states (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, PA, MD, DE) that are closer to New York City than I am right now. That's the way it always has been, of course, but it feels especially jarring right now, and it's something those looking at the statewide numbers should keep in mind: the 7,845 reported cases are incredibly concentrated downstate, while the numbers for the rest of state are more in line with what we're seeing elsewhere in the country.
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #922 on: March 20, 2020, 08:32:52 PM »

I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
hey guys remember when half the world died to a couple of rats

That would be pretty impressive if you managed to live this long after the 1300s.  An almost total lack of sanitation in Europe surely did just as much to spread disease as those initial rats did. 
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kalvado

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #923 on: March 20, 2020, 08:43:49 PM »

I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

LGL322DL
You want this thread locked because of all this coronavirus discussion bullshit and it gets old really fast?
hey guys remember when half the world died to a couple of rats

That would be pretty impressive if you managed to live this long after the 1300s.  An almost total lack of sanitation in Europe surely did just as much to spread disease as those initial rats did.
I heard quite similar tune about China when Wuhan was on lockdown - and look how it worked...
As for sanitation... Maybe 200-300 years from now the tune would be "an almost total lack of respiratory sanitation in 21st century surely did ... "
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ErmineNotyours

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic
« Reply #924 on: March 20, 2020, 08:54:27 PM »

Washington Governor Jay Inslee using traffic data to demonstrate a lack of social distancing.  I wonder if that takes into account the lack of reduction in truck traffic.  Not many trucks would take the HOT lane, so there's that.  Tomorrow I plan on driving to the Nisqually Wildlife Refuge, but I don't plan on going near any person.

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