A Modern Update to Disney's Magic Highways

[kernals12]

If you've never seen Disney's Magic Highways, you should. Produced in 1958, it's a wondrous time capsule of Mid Century Futurism. It makes lots of predictions that seem outlandish now, but were fitting at a time when it seemed science and technology seemed to have no limits. So here I thought I'd make my own predictions for the highways of tomorrow.

-The pavement will have thermochromic pigment that will change to a lighter color at a certain temperature, increasing its albedo and reducing the urban heat island effect and preventing rutting.

-There will be heating coils in the pavement that will keep the road free of snow and ice.

-Lane markings will use luminescent paint, perhaps eliminating the need for street lights in combination with "artificial moons" in space that will provide consistent daylight from 6 AM to 10 PM.

-With the reduction in power costs enabled by solar energy, concrete will probably overtake asphalt as the paving material of choice, due to its superior strength. For at or below grade roads, the concrete will be pervious to prevent flooding.

-Obviously your car will have autonomous capabilities, but for the great number of us that like driving, there will be a manual mode. Toyota is working on this concept which they compare to the "blended envelope control" on fighter jets. I agree with Disney that the replacement of mirrors with cameras is inevitable

-Thanks to efficient electric motors, helicopters will be used much more, as ambulances, police cruisers, and tow trucks

-Low cost solar power will allow us to use heat for earthmoving for tunnels, for grading, and for holes for concrete piles. This will greatly reduce roadbuilding costs

-New super strong materials will allow us to cheaply put our highways on stilts. This will be cheaper than excavating a level surface for a freeway and will be much less destructive to the environment. Ecosystems will no longer be fragmented by roads.

-Autonomous driving capabilities will also result in changes to highway design. Road builders, no longer needing to consider human error, could probably use cost cutting measures like left hand exit and entrance ramps and have flyover ramps making tighter curves. With no more phantom jams, our freeways will be able to carry much more traffic. During rush hour, cars on high traffic roads will form platoons. Speed limits will definitely be higher, perhaps 100 MPH in rural areas. A major issue would be noise, which rises logarithmically with speed.

-Contrary to what you have read, suburbanization has never really stopped, it may have slowed after the housing bust but the trend has consistently been out of big cities. And with highways getting less congested, and with VTOL aircraft and better long distance communication, this decentralization will continue. Hopefully it takes the form of cluster zoning where a number of homes are built on small lots in a cluster and surrounded by open space.

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

-You'll be happy to know there will be fewer trucks on tomorrow's highways. Once we find a room temperature superconductor, then Maglevs will take off (no pun intended) in a big way. Being able to move freight at 300 mph, they'll make long distance trucking all but obsolete. But trucks will still be needed to get freight to and from Maglev depots. These trucks, autonomous and electrically powered, will be small, probably no more than 20,000 pounds. Weight limits will probably be reduced for safety and road wear reasons.

-In urban areas, below-grade freeways will be lidded, a feat made inexpensive by new materials. Above and at-grade freeways will be replaced by tunnels, made by electric powered subterrenes. Wildlife crossings will become much more common, reconnecting ecosystems and preventing animal collisions. Highway landscaping has seen a renaissance in recent decades and this will hopefully continue. With artfully designed overpasses and finely manicured plantings, we could turn every freeway into a parkway, because even in such a high tech world, we will always appreciate old-fashioned beauty in our lives.

[vdeane]

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

People predicted that 70 years ago.  It didn't happen.  Ask yourself, what is more profitable for an employer?  Employing the same number of people and giving them shorter days with more time off, or employing fewer people and having the remaining people work just as hard as before (if not harder)?

This is why good blue collar jobs are mostly extinct in this country and why it's harder for college grads to break into their career fields, while many professional workers work 60-80 hour weeks.

[kernals12]

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

People predicted that 70 years ago.  It didn't happen.  Ask yourself, what is more profitable for an employer?  Employing the same number of people and giving them shorter days with more time off, or employing fewer people and having the remaining people work just as hard as before (if not harder)?

This is why good blue collar jobs are mostly extinct in this country and why it's harder for college grads to break into their career fields, while many professional workers work 60-80 hour weeks.

It may be more profitable for the employer but the workers won't be happy and will instead go to another employer who offers better working conditions. And white collar workers have always worked long hours.

[1995hoo]

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

People predicted that 70 years ago.  It didn't happen.  Ask yourself, what is more profitable for an employer?  Employing the same number of people and giving them shorter days with more time off, or employing fewer people and having the remaining people work just as hard as before (if not harder)?

This is why good blue collar jobs are mostly extinct in this country and why it's harder for college grads to break into their career fields, while many professional workers work 60-80 hour weeks.

Technology doesn't free up time. It just winds up creating more work to be done in the same amount of time. And I'm in a line of work where technology has substantially revolutionized a lot of things in the past 25 years.

[kernals12]

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

People predicted that 70 years ago.  It didn't happen.  Ask yourself, what is more profitable for an employer?  Employing the same number of people and giving them shorter days with more time off, or employing fewer people and having the remaining people work just as hard as before (if not harder)?

This is why good blue collar jobs are mostly extinct in this country and why it's harder for college grads to break into their career fields, while many professional workers work 60-80 hour weeks.

Technology doesn't free up time. It just winds up creating more work to be done in the same amount of time. And I'm in a line of work where technology has substantially revolutionized a lot of things in the past 25 years.

Technology allows us to produce more goods and services for a given amount of hours worked. Since 1980, we've chosen to keep our hours constant and instead enjoy more consumption

[Rothman]

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

People predicted that 70 years ago.  It didn't happen.  Ask yourself, what is more profitable for an employer?  Employing the same number of people and giving them shorter days with more time off, or employing fewer people and having the remaining people work just as hard as before (if not harder)?

This is why good blue collar jobs are mostly extinct in this country and why it's harder for college grads to break into their career fields, while many professional workers work 60-80 hour weeks.

It may be more profitable for the employer but the workers won't be happy and will instead go to another employer who offers better working conditions. And white collar workers have always worked long hours.

Labor is less mobile than you suggest, in reality.

[kernals12]

Can we get back on topic?

[1995hoo]

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

People predicted that 70 years ago.  It didn't happen.  Ask yourself, what is more profitable for an employer?  Employing the same number of people and giving them shorter days with more time off, or employing fewer people and having the remaining people work just as hard as before (if not harder)?

This is why good blue collar jobs are mostly extinct in this country and why it's harder for college grads to break into their career fields, while many professional workers work 60-80 hour weeks.

Technology doesn't free up time. It just winds up creating more work to be done in the same amount of time. And I'm in a line of work where technology has substantially revolutionized a lot of things in the past 25 years.

Technology allows us to produce more goods and services for a given amount of hours worked. Since 1980, we've chosen to keep our hours constant and instead enjoy more consumption

I stand by my prior comment. I'm completely certain I have a better understanding of how technology has affected my line of work than you do, regardless of the fact that you don't like people disagreeing with you.

[Max Rockatansky]

Magic Highways as a child was fascinating to watch and certainly inspired wonder.  As an adult it is one of the largest sources of why I tend to dismiss futurists almost outright. 

[Rothman]

Magic Highways as a child was fascinating to watch and certainly inspired wonder.  As an adult it is one of the largest sources of why I tend to dismiss futurists almost outright. 

I wonder if current futurists have learned any lessons from the ones in the past.

[ET21]

Can we get back on topic?

Pretty sure they have been on topic, unless you consider people disagreeing with you off topic 

[kernals12]

Can we get back on topic?

Pretty sure they have been on topic, unless you consider people disagreeing with you off topic 

I wanted to talk about highways, not start an argument about productivity and leisure

[vdeane]

Can we get back on topic?

Pretty sure they have been on topic, unless you consider people disagreeing with you off topic 

I wanted to talk about highways, not start an argument about productivity and leisure

You yourself are the one who brought it up.

[1995hoo]

Can we get back on topic?

Pretty sure they have been on topic, unless you consider people disagreeing with you off topic 

I wanted to talk about highways, not start an argument about productivity and leisure

You yourself are the one who brought it up.

Just to emphasize:

-Thanks to automation, we'll probably be working less. Even in a pessimistic case, I foresee a 32 hour work week with 6 weeks vacation.  I think 13 weeks is the maximum, beyond which point we'd suffer from severe boredom. And this doesn't count the time spent on household chores by labor saving devices. A lot of this free time will be spent traveling. For that, we'll need improvements to transportation to popular recreational areas.

People predicted that 70 years ago.  It didn't happen.  Ask yourself, what is more profitable for an employer?  Employing the same number of people and giving them shorter days with more time off, or employing fewer people and having the remaining people work just as hard as before (if not harder)?

This is why good blue collar jobs are mostly extinct in this country and why it's harder for college grads to break into their career fields, while many professional workers work 60-80 hour weeks.

In case it's not clear to kernals12, anything you say in your post is fair game for someone to respond (and I suggest that things you do not say but that are inherently implied by what you do say are fair game as well).

[Max Rockatansky]

Long working hours for some reason largely is perceived domestically as "better."   That attitude has hardly changed in the workforce and I would be interested to see how COVID/remote working will affect that long term.  I tend to believe in "work smarter, not harder"  and "hire well"  but a lot of employers don't share those sensibilities.  This is one of the many reasons why I don't view Futurism as something that carries much weight, it is largely divorced from how the world really is. 

[Nordschleife]

Long working hours for some reason largely is perceived domestically as "better."   That attitude has hardly changed in the workforce and I would be interested to see how COVID/remote working will affect that long term.  I tend to believe in "work smarter, not harder"  and "hire well"  but a lot of employers don't share those sensibilities.  This is one of the many reasons why I don't view Futurism as something that carries much weight, it is largely divorced from how the world really is.

This entire thread has added some interesting elements, love it!

What's fascinating to me, is that the world 'really' is however we've made it to be. Yes, I agree that much of the productivity gains have not been shared with those of us that work (instead we're asked to do more and more), and that's how much of the employer expectation functioned the last few decades, as least in the US. Coming from the automotive sector R&D side, each year the teams for a given, previously existing domain got smaller, timing shortened, and complexity increased. Yes, the wages went up somewhat for those who remained, but there wasn't more leisure to be found, that's for sure.

As to the original post, my first take is that if we make a prediction today about the future and evaluate after the same 63 years (1958), will we be more accurate? Would we be more dreamers or more grounded? And what of the phenomenon that by envisioning aspects of a future that we want, we take part in realizing them?

All I know is that after driving coast to coast in an EV with autopilot running 99% of the time, me from only 15 years ago would not be in a position to argue what is not possible over the next 15 years, much less 63.

[3467]

Kernals you started a great thread. It could go on and on and it will diverge.
I think it's the core issue behind the slowing economy since 1970. We did not have the technological breakthroughs that we did inn the previous century.
I was born at the end of mid century futurism . I miss it but we have some green shoots and you mentioned some.

[kernals12]

Kernals you started a great thread. It could go on and on and it will diverge.
I think it's the core issue behind the slowing economy since 1970. We did not have the technological breakthroughs that we did inn the previous century.
I was born at the end of mid century futurism . I miss it but we have some green shoots and you mentioned some.

I think things are coming together for another great burst of progress. We've got artificial intelligence, quantum computers, cheap access to space, inexpensive solar power, CRISPR, lab grown meat, 2d materials and so much more.

[Scott5114]

Can we get back on topic?

No

It may be more profitable for the employer but the workers won't be happy and will instead go to another employer who offers better working conditions. And white collar workers have always worked long hours.

What do you suppose caused my last workplace to be so miserable? People were deeply unhappy about the working conditions, but instead of going to another employer, they stuck around cause at least there they had health insurance.

[SEWIGuy]

Kernals you started a great thread. It could go on and on and it will diverge.
I think it's the core issue behind the slowing economy since 1970. We did not have the technological breakthroughs that we did inn the previous century.
I was born at the end of mid century futurism . I miss it but we have some green shoots and you mentioned some.

I think we have had huge breakthroughs.  They just more related to computing technology than anything else.  Not the large "macro engineering" breakthroughs that we saw in the fist two thirds of the 20th Century.

And I don't know what you mean about "slowing economy since 1970."  Our economy has been growing just fine, especially in the last 25 years.  The problem is that wage and income differentiation has made that uneven.

[Chris19001]

What do you suppose caused my last workplace to be so miserable? People were deeply unhappy about the working conditions, but instead of going to another employer, they stuck around cause at least there they had health insurance.

Opening up this can of worms, what would the repercussions be of a single payor government run system on employer attitudes towards staffing (aside from the jokes about government run systems).  Would employers be more receptive towards hiring more people for standard hours (30-40 per week) if the single biggest cost of benefits now goes out the door?  I've heard that's kind of how it works in most other spots in the world, but it's taboo in America.  Working in a professional field, I'd love a 40 hour workweek, but its not coming down the pike anytime soon no matter where I apply.
Note, I realize sociological thought exercises are mostly mute points, but its a fair observation if predicting the future and learning from past misfires.  I also know that hiking the US personal income tax to rates seen elsewhere in the world would probably start a civil war the way things are these days.

[Chris19001]

What do you suppose caused my last workplace to be so miserable? People were deeply unhappy about the working conditions, but instead of going to another employer, they stuck around cause at least there they had health insurance.

Opening up this can of worms, what would the repercussions be of a single payor government run system on employer attitudes towards staffing (aside from the jokes about government run systems).  Would employers be more receptive towards hiring more people for standard hours (30-40 per week) if the single biggest cost of benefits now goes out the door?  I've heard that's kind of how it works in most other spots in the world, but it's taboo in America.  Working in a professional field, I'd love a 40 hour workweek, but its not coming down the pike anytime soon no matter where I apply.
Note, I realize sociological thought exercises are mostly mute points, but its a fair observation if predicting the future and learning from past misfires.  I also know that hiking the US personal income tax to rates seen elsewhere in the world would probably start a civil war the way things are these days.  Mods please feel free to delete if this is just too far gone from the Disney prediction topic at hand.

[kernals12]

Can we get back on topic?

No

It may be more profitable for the employer but the workers won't be happy and will instead go to another employer who offers better working conditions. And white collar workers have always worked long hours.

What do you suppose caused my last workplace to be so miserable? People were deeply unhappy about the working conditions, but instead of going to another employer, they stuck around cause at least there they had health insurance.

40% of the American workforce turns over either voluntarily or involuntarily every year. That's enough to create competition for workers among employers

[Max Rockatansky]

Can we get back on topic?

No

It may be more profitable for the employer but the workers won't be happy and will instead go to another employer who offers better working conditions. And white collar workers have always worked long hours.

What do you suppose caused my last workplace to be so miserable? People were deeply unhappy about the working conditions, but instead of going to another employer, they stuck around cause at least there they had health insurance.

40% of the American workforce turns over either voluntarily or involuntarily every year. That's enough to create competition for workers among employers

Correct me if I'm wrong, buy you don't work right?

[skluth]

The OP brings up some fascinating potential future highway concepts. I'll comment on a couple of those and add my own.

-There will be heating coils in the pavement that will keep the road free of snow and ice.

I don't know about heating coils, but I expect new technologies to keep major roads free of snow/ice. I also expect some major roads and especially freeways to incorporate a recharging system to allow electric vehicles to operate long distances without needing to stop for long recharging stops. The trucking industry will be the push behind this as they can put their self-driving trucks on the highway in LA and drive non-stop to the East Coast, with possibly a sleeper cab in front for a security/admin person.

-With the reduction in power costs enabled by solar energy, concrete will probably overtake asphalt as the paving material of choice, due to its superior strength. For at or below grade roads, the concrete will be pervious to prevent flooding.

Probably not. Concrete is one of the worst CO2 polluters on the planet, producing 8% of our CO2 annually. It also will continue to emit that CO2 for centuries, even if our civilization collapses. Environmentalists are already lobbying to cut concrete use in construction. I expect new highway surface products using waste like shredded tires and recycled plastic mixed with a polymer binder will eventually replace concrete on major projects with asphalt continuing to play a major role in paving. Some of these new materials will allow construction underwater, much like Roman Empire concrete did using volcanic ash as an ingredient.

-Thanks to efficient electric motors, helicopters will be used much more, as ambulances, police cruisers, and tow trucks

This is tricky, because there are a lot of air space regulations in most developed countries. I expect it first in places like the UAE and Angola; both are urbanizing more quickly than their roads can handle and the political environment would be more supportive. The FAA and the airline lobby will fight this in the US until the technology can be proven elsewhere.

-You'll be happy to know there will be fewer trucks on tomorrow's highways. Once we find a room temperature superconductor, then Maglevs will take off (no pun intended) in a big way. Being able to move freight at 300 mph, they'll make long distance trucking all but obsolete. But trucks will still be needed to get freight to and from Maglev depots. These trucks, autonomous and electrically powered, will be small, probably no more than 20,000 pounds. Weight limits will probably be reduced for safety and road wear reasons.

This would require a commitment to building a taxpayer-funded, expensive, cross-country maglev network. I think that's less realistic than Elon Musk converting his hyperloop concept to freight transportation (easier than you might expect if he can get his SF/LA line running and substituting a hyperloop pod container as the cargo container). I don't foresee long-distance mag-lev anything since it would require the government to pay for and build a system that is incompatible with other transportation; high-speed rail freight is more likely with improved tech to handle steep grades. The long-distance trucking industry (Schneider, Roadway, etc) and rail interests would both heavily lobby against a maglev system.

Interesting discussion. Thanks.