Oddities that defy conventional wisdom - POPULATION edition

[JayhawkCO]

Weld County seems like it contains too many disparate jurisdictions. Do Erie, Greeley, and Raymer really have enough in common to justify them falling under the same government? Likewise, Larimer County has a bunch of towns spilling over into Weld but also runs up into the mountains to contain Estes Park somehow. I have to imagine that the county commission meeting agendas cover such a wide range of topics as to become whiplash-inducing.

Most of what you're describing is just due to growth. Weld County in particular used to just be just Greeley and a lot of farmland, but as the corridor between Denver and Fort Collins has filled in, lots of cities of some size have become relevant in Weld/Larimer Counties. Look at the populations when the counties were formed. Hell, look at the populations in 1990.

Erie, in 1990, had 1,258 people, all in Weld County. Now it has 35,269 in Boulder and Weld Counties.

[JayhawkCO]

To expound on this a little bit, here are the populations of all cities and towns in Weld County in 1990 vs. now. Note that a good amount of cities/towns have since annexed land in another county, so I've done my best to estimate just the population that's in Weld County. Also of note, both Northglenn and Thornton technically have land area in Weld County, but it doesn't appear that anyone lives on those tracts of land.

City	1990	2020	Growth
Ault	1107	1887	70%
Berthoud	0	261	∞
Brighton	0	365	∞
Dacono	2228	6297	183%
Eaton	1959	5802	196%
Erie	528	17387	3193%
Evans	5877	22165	277%
Firestone	1358	16381	1106%
Fort Lupton	5159	7955	54%
Frederick	988	14513	1369%
Garden City	199	254	28%
Gilcrest	1084	1029	-5%
Greeley	60536	108795	80%
Grover	135	157	16%
Hudson	918	1651	80%
Johnstown	947	10382	996%
Keenesburg	570	1250	119%
Kersey	863	1495	73%
LaSalle	1783	2359	32%
Lochbuie	1168	7938	580%
Longmont	2432	14832	510%
Mead	456	4781	948%
Milliken	1605	8386	422%
Nunn	324	504	56%
Pierce	823	1097	33%
Platteville	1515	2955	95%
Raymer	98	110	12%
Severance	106	7863	7318%
Windsor	5062	21810	331%
TOTAL	99828	290661	191%

So tl;dr, Weld County made a lot of sense when it was created (in 1861). But obviously population trends have moved a ton of its population to Greeley and the I-25 corridor.

And, it does make soooommmee sense geographically for the northeastern portion of the county as the border runs along the Pawnee National Grassland border.

[kphoger]

Note that a good amount of ounties have since annexed land in another county, so I've done my best to estimate just the population that's in Weld County.

towns?

[JayhawkCO]

Note that a good amount of counties have since annexed land in another county, so I've done my best to estimate just the population that's in Weld County.

towns?

Cities and towns. Corrected my typo. Trying to go too fast. Also fixed your typo.

[NWI_Irish96]

The US is the 3rd most populated country in the world. If you tripled the population of the US, it would be the 3rd most populated country in the world.

[kphoger]

The US is the 3rd most populated country in the world. If you tripled the population of the US, it would be the 3rd most populated country in the world.

According to the 2024 estimate, you could even quadruple it.

4.  282.5 million — Indonesia
3.  340.1 million — USA, actual 2024 estimate
3.  1.360 billion — USA, quadrupled
2.  1.408 billion — China
1.  1.413 billion — India

[NWI_Irish96]

The US is the 3rd most populated country in the world. If you tripled the population of the US, it would be the 3rd most populated country in the world.

According to the 2024 estimate, you could even quadruple it.

4.  282.5 million — Indonesia
3.  340.1 million — USA, actual 2024 estimate
3.  1.360 billion — USA, quadrupled
2.  1.408 billion — China
1.  1.413 billion — India

Probably won't be true much longer.

[Road Hog]

Which part?

Trump isn't building a wall to keep the Messkins out. He's building it to keep the Americans in.

[kphoger]

Which part?

Trump isn't building a wall to keep the Messkins out. He's building it to keep the Americans in.

China's population is going down.  The US population is going up.  Pretty soon, if you take the US population and quadruple it, it will be greater than the population of China.

It has nothing to do with Trump.

[webny99]

And now the way the county lines fall they each have a chunk of Denver suburbs stuck to the side of a long, narrow strip of farmland.

Yeah, I can't stand that either. In my view, every county should be able to be reasonably categorized as one of the following:

• Large city (metro area)
• Small city (micro area)
• Suburban
• Exurban
• Rural

Obviously, there's going to be some mixture. But if the county as a whole doesn't reasonably and clearly fall into one of those buckets, either the lines were misdrawn or the county is just way too big.

Note that a good amount of cities/towns have since annexed land in another county

Yuck. Annexation should be banished from the the face of the earth.

[JayhawkCO]

And now the way the county lines fall they each have a chunk of Denver suburbs stuck to the side of a long, narrow strip of farmland.

Yeah, I can't stand that either. In my view, every county should be able to be reasonably categorized as one of the following:

• Large city (metro area)
• Small city (micro area)
• Suburban
• Exurban
• Rural

Obviously, there's going to be some mixture. But if the county as a whole doesn't reasonably and clearly fall into one of those buckets, either the lines were misdrawn or the county is just way too big.

So are you in favor of redrawing a ton of county lines? I know you're looking at this from an East Coast perspective where things don't change that dramatically in a 30 year period, but out west, the population dynamics change dramatically because we have open space to build.

[SEWIGuy]

But from what I know about county government in other states I would be surprised if Colorado didn't run into a lot of bureaucratic and political issues that aren't experienced in other places simply because the county lines fall in awkward places that don't reflect how people actually use the land.

I think in most places, county governments largely oversee unincorporated areas and have some state delegated functions like a health department or a court system. But if you live in an incorporated city, your day to day stuff is largely regulated at the municipality level.

[kphoger]

Ideally, I think, each county should have at least one major population center (which, in the case of sparsely populated regions, might not be all that populous), plus the surrounding rural area.  In the case of large metro areas, there is likely to be be little to no rural area to speak of, and that's fine.  The point is for the county seat to be the magnet for outer areas, even if those outer areas end up being suburban rather than rural.

Monroe County, NY — Perfect.  A major population center, plus surrounding rural area.

Cook County, IL — Should either shrink to include less suburban area, or else expand to include more.  Villa Park may not be as urban as Cicero, but it's also not Elburn either.

Weld County, CO — Not terrible, even if shaped oddly.  Greeley is the county seat, which is somewhat centrally located.

Adams County, CO — A weird shape on the map, but whatever.  Brighton isn't centrally located, but it's not like people in the rest of the county aren't already used to driving into the city suburbs.  It still works.  But, on the other hand, going straight through the town of Strasburg is dumb.

Arapahoe County, CO — Everything I said about Adams County.

Oklahoma City — Bad.  Bad, bad, bad.  Ridiculous.

[webny99]

Yeah, I can't stand that either. In my view, every county should be able to be reasonably categorized as one of the following:

• • Large city (metro area)
  • Small city (micro area)
  • Suburban
  • Exurban
  • Rural

Obviously, there's going to be some mixture. But if the county as a whole doesn't reasonably and clearly fall into one of those buckets, either the lines were misdrawn or the county is just way too big.

So are you in favor of redrawing a ton of county lines? I know you're looking at this from an East Coast perspective where things don't change that dramatically in a 30 year period, but out west, the population dynamics change dramatically because we have open space to build.

Not necessarily, no. I get that things are different in the western states, not just because of open land, but also fast-growing populations. Still, I think the bigger issue is that counties in the western states (including Colorado) are much too large for the densifying urban and suburban areas that are being superimposed on top of preexisting lines. Most of the Great Plains states have appropriately-sized counties, but things spiral out of hand west of there.

And that's probably mostly a result of the land having never been developed, which is understandable. I would, however, very much support breaking the massive counties down into smaller ones in areas where dense development is occurring. This happened in the eastern states, too, by the way... it just mostly happened decades and centuries ago, but in hindsight, it was an important step in ensuring that county lines were relatively consistent, logical, and manageable for future generations.

[webny99]

Monroe County, NY — Perfect.

Thank you, thank you.  [webny99 takes a bow] 

Ideally, I think, each county should have at least one major population center (which, in the case of sparsely populated regions, might not be all that populous), plus the surrounding rural area.  In the case of large metro areas, there is likely to be be little to no rural area to speak of, and that's fine.  The point is for the county seat to be the magnet for outer areas, even if those outer areas end up being suburban rather than rural.

On a more serious note: A lot of New York's counties fit this standard pretty well, or at least fit in spirit even if the population center isn't centrally located. I think you'd probably call Onondaga, Tompkins, and Jefferson counties perfect too, for much the same reasons.

[JayhawkCO]

And that's probably mostly a result of the land having never been developed, which is understandable. I would, however, very much support breaking the massive counties down into smaller ones in areas where dense development is occurring. This happened in the eastern states, too, by the way... it just mostly happened decades and centuries ago, but in hindsight, it was an important step in ensuring that county lines were relatively consistent, logical, and manageable for future generations.

The challenge in the case of these Weld County cities, is that the growth is right along the county line, and I posted upthread, these cities have also annexed land in neighboring counties. So, in order to create new counties out of Weld County, maybe one for the I-25 corridor, one for Greeley, and one for the very, very rural northeastern part of the county, you don't really end up fixing any of the problem of having a county "that matters" unless you also split up neighboring counties and then recombine bits and pieces of what's been split apart to mush things back together.

It's kind of like the colonial boundaries in Africa not making any sense on ethnic lines, and that's why there are so many civil wars. But no country is going to be very willing to give up a little bit of its land, while a neighboring country gives up a little bit of its land to make a new country. See also Kurdistan.

[CtrlAltDel]

This happened in the eastern states, too, by the way... it just mostly happened decades and centuries ago, but in hindsight, it was an important step in ensuring that county lines were relatively consistent, logical, and manageable for future generations.

With some exceptions of course, perhaps most notably Norfolk County in Massachusetts.

[Scott5114]

But from what I know about county government in other states I would be surprised if Colorado didn't run into a lot of bureaucratic and political issues that aren't experienced in other places simply because the county lines fall in awkward places that don't reflect how people actually use the land.

I think in most places, county governments largely oversee unincorporated areas and have some state delegated functions like a health department or a court system. But if you live in an incorporated city, your day to day stuff is largely regulated at the municipality level.

This is true, but that doesn't mean that incorporated city dwellers don't have to interact with the county government at all. When I lived in Cleveland County, Oklahoma, I had to interact with the county government for*:
- Voting (although I was able to do everything by mail)
- The health department (when I worked at Burger King we were required by law to attend a food safety class there)
- The court system (when I got married, also when I bought a house)

Sure, these aren't everyday things, but it's not like the average person will never interact with the county government. There's also the issue of the government being in a convenient place to be reachable when they get something wrong, or just the plain being able to attend regular county commission meetings to supervise what's going on there (which is something everyone should be able to do easily even if most people have no interest in doing so).

* I'm not using my current county, Clark County, Nevada, for this, because it is ridiculously powerful as counties go. This is both because a large proportion of people in Clark County live in unincorporated areas, and the economic center of the county is in an unincorporated area. There are very few counties in the U.S. with this set of circumstances. Fortunately, Clark County has reasonable borders (by large Western state standards, at least) and the seat of government is conveniently located for the vast majority of its residents.

But no country is going to be very willing to give up a little bit of its land, while a neighboring country gives up a little bit of its land to make a new country.

Fortunately, in most states, I believe the state Legislature can draw county lines at will, or county lines can be changed by referendum. The actual county governments involved don't have much say in that.

[vdeane]

* I'm not using my current county, Clark County, Nevada, for this, because it is ridiculously powerful as counties go. This is both because a large proportion of people in Clark County live in unincorporated areas, and the economic center of the county is in an unincorporated area. There are very few counties in the U.S. with this set of circumstances. Fortunately, Clark County has reasonable borders (by large Western state standards, at least) and the seat of government is conveniently located for the vast majority of its residents.

Doesn't Clark County have 75% of Nevada's population or something?  I imagine that plays a part too.

[CtrlAltDel]

* I'm not using my current county, Clark County, Nevada, for this, because it is ridiculously powerful as counties go. This is both because a large proportion of people in Clark County live in unincorporated areas, and the economic center of the county is in an unincorporated area. There are very few counties in the U.S. with this set of circumstances. Fortunately, Clark County has reasonable borders (by large Western state standards, at least) and the seat of government is conveniently located for the vast majority of its residents.

Doesn't Clark County have 75% of Nevada's population or something?  I imagine that plays a part too.

73.4%, according to the Wikipedia.