It's hard to predict the future of interstate & highway technology. Some things will remain the same, some things will change, some things are changing...
If we were to create a "time capsule" of predictions of what will be long gone in 25 years, what would they be??:
1) White LED street lighting will be the norm -- no more "orange" or "yellow" glows on streets anymore.
2) I also predict that most hard-copy road maps and atlases will be history by 2038.
3) $3.00 Gas -- though I think by then, there will be a new dominating "fuel" which will be the norm in most vehicles.
4) By 2038, all tollways, turnpikes, toll bridges will be cashless & ticketless.
Others??
Clearview. Also known as "that strange test font from 25 years ago".
HOV or HOT lanes in 75% of all US major cities by 2020 </wild guess>
Quote from: thenetwork on November 24, 2013, 11:13:47 PM
2038
Is this an arbitrary choice, or will toll collection systems in the future support 64-bit time?Apparently, I don't understand the phrase "in
25 years". I am not a smart girl. :banghead:
Truck drivers: A partnership between International and UPS produced the first viable driverless truck in 2021, and within the next 15 years over 80% of trucks operate without a human driver.
Quote from: Zmapper on November 24, 2013, 11:23:34 PM
Truck drivers: A partnership between International and UPS produced the first viable driverless truck in 2021, and within the next 15 years over 80% of trucks operate without a human driver.
I read that and I can't help but think of
The Simpsons episode (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_Homerdrive) where Homer was a truck driver, completing Big Red's route with the help of the Navitron Autodrive system.
Quote from: NE2 on November 24, 2013, 11:17:15 PM
Clearview. Also known as "that strange test font from 25 years ago".
To the people of 2038, Clearview will seem like '70s metrication propaganda does to us today.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F1gay9UV&hash=d18cbc360eafbbba9def2a2d8f72c61624ecde99)
But what is the likelihood that the entire concept of signage, or at least guide signage, will be passé? All route information displayed in-vehicle by GPS, with a standardized interface mandated by a government consortium for bi-directional communication of dynamic toll rates, payment information, traffic data, and so on.
Perhaps with driverless cars by then, too.
Correct answer to the first question: nothing.
Quote from: briantroutman on November 25, 2013, 01:23:51 AM
But what is the likelihood that the entire concept of signage, or at least guide signage, will be passé?
Hell no. Cyclists use signs too.
What would be nice, but is probably unlikely to happen, is all freeways and "pure" expressways (i.e. no businesses; just intersections) being electronically tolled (whether or not it was previously tolled), and surface streets being maintained by the gas tax. Among other things, it would reduce traffic on major shunpike routes (like what NJ's Somerset Freeway would have been).
Quote from: sammi on November 24, 2013, 11:23:22 PM
Is this an arbitrary choice, or will toll collection systems in the future support 64-bit time?
By the year 292,277,026,596 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem#Solutions), humanity will no longer exist, let alone road systems.
Quote from: Roadsguy on November 25, 2013, 07:24:39 AM
Quote from: sammi on November 24, 2013, 11:23:22 PM
Is this an arbitrary choice, or will toll collection systems in the future support 64-bit time?
By the year 292,277,026,596 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem#Solutions), humanity will no longer exist, let alone road systems.
I was actually referring to how 2038 won't see any 32-bit machines because of the 2038 problem, so they will have 64-bit. Still, I misread the OP. >_<
I think some highway guide signs may start to go away IF augmented reality systems such as Google Glass or self-driving cars really take off.
The freedom to travel from place to place without having to pay. We all have talked about it before here on this forum, so we all are aware that the time will come where we will pay a driving tax. Since technology has come a long way, it won't be long before our nation's lawmakers will make use of it to collect more taxes on us.
Probably the signs will go as GPS will most likely be the norm, and the signs will not be needed. Alex and I talked about it in our mini road meet about the XXXX Next X Exits signs will go soon with the technological advance in place. In addition I feel that with GPS providing gas food and lodging information and even direct dialing for these to the phone system, you do not really need road signs.
Remember the VCR how big and great we thought that trend was, and then a few years later the DVD, and now simple downloading! We were always talking about movies we rented and how good life was because of it, and who thought that it would end just in a few years, but it did.
Quote from: roadman65 on November 25, 2013, 08:39:14 AM
The freedom to travel from place to place without having to pay.
holy crap free gas
Even with GPS, navigating closely spaced exits/cross streets would still be hard without signs.
Lets hope on that one that our politicians will see. We may, though, have exit numbers posted alone without guides as the GPS will tell us which exit is for what road and to where.
Another 25 years, and out in the rural areas there won't be hardly any old fashioned overhead steel truss bridges left. They are getting scarce now.
They will all be reinforced concrete beam bridges with low banisters, and they will all look alike.
And for the city folks out for a drive in the country in the fall, as big as the farm equipment they have to dodge is now, look out, even bigger stuff is in store!
Another 25 years might be taxing on quite a few culverts and road tubes too. There are ones around here over 100 years old, and water and chloride and freeze thaw with eventually get them all.
There will be many more farm houses with video security equipment, and some of those cameras will catch adjoining highways and byways. Smile and wave as you go by!
25 years there might be automated farm equipment too. Not sure if it would be allowed to travel on highways going field to field, but I suppose that is inevitable.
I'd expect in a few years to have a dossier pop up on my smart phone when ever anyone pulls up to my house. Before they even get out of the car, I'll know who has pulled into my driveway, the license and VIN on their car, and info on what business they might be associated with.
Quote from: roadman65 on November 25, 2013, 10:58:11 AM
Lets hope on that one that our politicians will see. We may, though, have exit numbers posted alone without guides as the GPS will tell us which exit is for what road and to where.
Please, more reliance on GPS' (over signs) would be the absolute
last thing I would want to see.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimghumour.com%2Fassets%2FUploads%2FIgnore-GPS.jpg&hash=b2a7e203c5d70560ab8da391eb56d3a5f743a266)
I've seen too way many people who have driven for years screw up
more when using GPS systems than without them; and these individuals I'm referring to are lay people, as opposed to road geeks, traffic engineers, etc.
Back to the topic at hand, I'm a bit surprised that nobody has mentioned button-copy signage yet.
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 11:16:12 AMPlease, more reliance on GPS' (over signs) would be the absolute last thing I would want to see.
Seconded.
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 11:16:12 AMBack to the topic at hand, I'm a bit surprised that nobody has mentioned button-copy signage yet.
Beat me to it.
Just like truss bridges (and even moreso), button copy is going to be as rare as unicorn blood.
Button copy I already miss, but since reflective signs have become the norm I kinda got used to them. Being from NJ we had plenty of button copy signs on the Turnpike and was fond of them then.
Self-driving cars will probably be the most promiment thing we'll see in 25 years. It'll make GPS important, but not in the way mentioned above - the cars will be relying on GPS, not us.
And even more important - not everyone will have a self-driven car. There's still cars on the road today that aren't required to have seatbelts, for example. So signage will still be important to those that don't have or utilize GPSs in their vehicle.
In 25 years, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars), so I'll miss the individuality of older cars. Even now something from the 1980s gets more attention from me on the road than, say, a Tesla.
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),
FTFY :sombrero:
Quote from: jeffandnicole on November 25, 2013, 12:27:40 PM
Self-driving cars will probably be the most promiment thing we'll see in 25 years. It'll make GPS important, but not in the way mentioned above - the cars will be relying on GPS, not us.
And even more important - not everyone will have a self-driven car. There's still cars on the road today that aren't required to have seatbelts, for example. So signage will still be important to those that don't have or utilize GPSs in their vehicle.
I came in here to say the exact same thing. Bring on the self driving cars!
We will not see:
Tolls that are below $1.
Button copy.
I-3 in Georgia.
Sequential exit numbers.
Things we will see:
Advertising on road signs.
Clearview.
Goats.
Quote from: 1 on November 25, 2013, 03:51:26 PM
We will not see:
Tolls that are below $1.
To add, no more ECLs.
I'll likely miss seeing I-70 directly connect with the PATurnpike at Breezewood.
:-P
Mike
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 01:24:00 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),
FTFY :sombrero:
Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).
GPS has a LONG way to go before it is reliable enough to replace road signs. The GPS on my phone is often very inaccurate. It might be there in 25 years, but it is far from here now.
Self-driving cars won't be commonplace in anywhere close to 25 years.
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 10:20:08 PM
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 01:24:00 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),
FTFY :sombrero:
Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).
Everyone says this every generation. To me, all the cars of the 1950s look alike, and especially before the 1940s. Modern cars do look alike to some degree, but there is a lot of corporate branding - you may not know WHICH Ford or BMW you're seeing, but you know it's from that brand because of the look.
Quote from: Steve on November 25, 2013, 11:17:35 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 10:20:08 PM
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 01:24:00 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),
FTFY :sombrero:
Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).
Everyone says this every generation. To me, all the cars of the 1950s look alike, and especially before the 1940s. Modern cars do look alike to some degree, but there is a lot of corporate branding - you may not know WHICH Ford or BMW you're seeing, but you know it's from that brand because of the look.
I remember reading about a study some time back, in which researchers were looking into why people seem to think that people of other races all look alike. In this study, people were shown photographs of well-known celebrities, showing only the area around the nose. White people identified white celebrities more often than black celebrities. It seems that in this study, when shown such a photo of Tom Cruise, their minds think, "that's Tom Cruise's nose," and when shown such a photo of Will Smith, their minds think "that's a black nose." The researchers believe that people tend to look at the generalizations of things that are less familiar, while they look at the distinctions of things that are more familiar, such as people of the same race as their families.
I wonder if something similar happens with cars. When you're young and learning to identify cars, the cars you see all the time are different than the cars 20 years later, and the cars that are so old that there aren't many around. While car shapes are more uniformly aerodynamic, which is a good thing, I wonder how much the perception of "individuality" relates more to the observer's familiarity or emotional preferences than to the objective similarities and distinctivenesses.
I do believe that the ability of the an ordinary middle class person to take a long inter-regional trip by an individually owned car will be severely restricted by a combination of confiscatory tolls, taxes (some to pay for things government shouldn't be doing, some simply because the green/selfish don't want OTHER people to live their lives in a different way than what THEY have decided is best) and a general lowering of the quality of life. Interstates, and similar, will thus be the domain of trucks, locals and business travelers.
GPS and self-driving cars, etc, will not happen. GPS's main function is to get you lost.
Cars will be what they will be what they are. Designs come and go.
I think billboards will be replaced as the car will already know your preferences and what is up ahead.
I won't miss all the wingnuts as they slowly die off.
Quote from: Steve on November 25, 2013, 11:17:35 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 10:20:08 PM
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 01:24:00 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),
FTFY :sombrero:
Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).
Everyone says this every generation. To me, all the cars of the 1950s look alike, and especially before the 1940s. Modern cars do look alike to some degree, but there is a lot of corporate branding - you may not know WHICH Ford or BMW you're seeing, but you know it's from that brand because of the look.
One big difference between cars back then and now is that cars changed their styling, even if ever so subtle,
more frequently back then. If one waited a couple years, production gap during WWII being an exception, the model they liked would have a different look than it did 2 years earlier.
Today, it's not uncommon to see a car model not change
at all for 5, 7 and even 10 (in some instances) consecutive model years. Even the previous-generation Toyota Corolla had a longer than usual production cycle; the 2014 replacement model was long overdue.
The reasoning for such, and import brands are not immune to this, is due to the overall increase of meeting various regulations (safety, emissions, fuel economy) now in place; eats up a sizeable portion of a vehicle's production budget that could have been used for additional tooling/retooling.
A generation or two of the above occuring helps contribute to more and more vehicles looking alike today even if the vehicle's 10+ years old. The average age of a vehicle on the road today is about 11; twice as high as it was a generation ago.
Ford went back to their original design for the Mustang. It now looks like it did in the 60's. Then of course GM copied them with the Camaro and Chrysler did it with the Charger and went back as well.
How I see self driving cars developing:
1. Initial demonstration cars in limited numbers for the rich. Because of novelty, companies like Google will initially focus on "family" cars.
2. Technology will be expanded to fleets of trucks and buses, where vehicles have higher price tags, don't last as long as private cars, and economies of scale can be more easily exploited.
3. After the kinks are worked out and prices are reduced, self driving cars will then become progressively more affordable to lower classes, but a full nationwide fleet replacement will take a while because of the number of years some vehicles driven have been on the road.
Quote from: roadman65 on November 26, 2013, 09:32:25 AM
Ford went back to their original design for the Mustang. It now looks like it did in the 60's.
True, but it will undergo a major style change (& a new platform) for 2015. After 10 years, the S197 platformed Mustangs have run their course.
Quote from: roadman65 on November 26, 2013, 09:32:25 AM
Then of course GM copied them with the Camaro
Yes and no. Yes, Chevy did revive the Camaro and used some styling cues from its '69 model on its current model; but I don't believe anyone would refer to the latter as retro.
Quote from: roadman65 on November 26, 2013, 09:32:25 AMChrysler did it with the Charger and went back as well.
The Dodge Challenger coupe would've been a better example to mention; especially since the front end does not feature the same nose as other current Dodge models. Plus, prior to 2005, no Charger was
ever a 4-door sedan and some purists took some exception to naming a sedan after a model that was always a coupe.
Quote from: Zmapper on November 26, 2013, 10:29:07 AM
How I see self driving cars developing:
1. Initial demonstration cars in limited numbers for the rich. Because of novelty, companies like Google will initially focus on "family" cars.
2. Technology will be expanded to fleets of trucks and buses, where vehicles have higher price tags, don't last as long as private cars, and economies of scale can be more easily exploited.
3. After the kinks are worked out and prices are reduced, self driving cars will then become progressively more affordable to lower classes, but a full nationwide fleet replacement will take a while because of the number of years some vehicles driven have been on the road.
I see it coming in slightly differently. Manufacturers are slowly bringing self-drive technologies to market. We're seeing them first with higher end cars like Mercedes but they're starting to trickle down. Things like parking assist and intelligent cruise control are now becoming common on mid-level cars. I even had a Chevy rental car recently with lane departure warnings. Meanwhile high end cars can currently park themselves, can automatically accelerate and brake in stop and go traffic, block lane changes if there's a car in your blind spot, and can even fully steer to maintain the center of a lane.
Self drive cars will come to fruition feature-by-feature, first in luxury cars then trickling down to mainstream vehicles.
Here's an article about Acura's new lane keeping system which actually self-drives the car down the center of the lane:
http://www.techhive.com/article/2056562/tested-lane-keeping-assist-system-steers-acura-ever-closer-to-self-driving-cars.html
Quote from: realjd on November 26, 2013, 03:47:35 PM
can automatically accelerate and brake in stop and go traffic
So now cars themselves are encouraging bad behavior. In stop and go it's better to drive at a slow, constant speed rather than taking brief movements at a faster speed and stopping all the side. If only more people drove manuals, people would understand that!
Quote from: vdeane on November 26, 2013, 05:09:18 PM
Quote from: realjd on November 26, 2013, 03:47:35 PM
can automatically accelerate and brake in stop and go traffic
So now cars themselves are encouraging bad behavior. In stop and go it's better to drive at a slow, constant speed rather than taking brief movements at a faster speed and stopping all the side. If only more people drove manuals, people would understand that!
You're not from around here. Try that in NJ and you'll end up a mile behind the car you started off behind as car after car cuts into your "slow but steady" gap during one of the faster "movements."
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 01:24:00 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),
FTFY
"
Cars used to be so unique."
"
All cars look the same today."
Can we shoot this fallacy in the face
for good?
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F1hgQWRn&hash=ed5ed184b377787a0bd03f8205dea562078a5778)
With few exceptions, mainstream American cars have
always looked similar. And not without good reason, either. In the halcyon days of Detroit's grip on consumer tastes, an automaker would be taking a big risk if their 1958 whatever didn't line up very very closely with its competition. What would you get if you deviated slightly from the standard? An Edsel. And apart from the horse collar grill in front, the Edsel's looks weren't that far removed from a '58 Pontiac or Dodge.
And since many Americans buy cars like they buy carpeting or drywall (by the square foot), the dimensions and volumes dictated by that styling also needed to be very similar. Competitors would be quick to trumpet that "the Plymouth has two fewer cubic feet of rear passenger room..." Even if no one over 4' 9" would ever sit in the back seat for the life of the car.
The cars that really
did look different were oddballs like Studebakers and Hudsons–the Nash Metropolitan, Cord, and the Crosley. Many of which were derided then (and some even now) for daring to look different, and all from companies that have long since gone out of business.
I will certainly miss button copy.
I will miss being able to drive the speed limit or above. In 25 years the baby boomers will be between 75-95 years old and be clogging up the roads with their super slow driving.
Quote from: briantroutman on November 26, 2013, 06:57:55 PM
With few exceptions, mainstream American cars have always looked similar. And not without good reason, either. In the halcyon days of Detroit's grip on consumer tastes, an automaker would be taking a big risk if their 1958 whatever didn't line up very very closely with its competition. What would you get if you deviated slightly from the standard? An Edsel. And apart from the horse collar grill in front, the Edsel's looks weren't that far removed from a '58 Pontiac or Dodge.
And since many Americans buy cars like they buy carpeting or drywall (by the square foot), the dimensions and volumes dictated by that styling also needed to be very similar. Competitors would be quick to trumpet that "the Plymouth has two fewer cubic feet of rear passenger room..." Even if no one over 4' 9" would ever sit in the back seat for the life of the car.
The cars that really did look different were oddballs like Studebakers and Hudsons–the Nash Metropolitan, Cord, and the Crosley. Many of which were derided then (and some even now) for daring to look different, and all from companies that have long since gone out of business.
In the case of Cord, as well as Duesenberg and Auburn, they was badly hit by the Great Depression.
The "Shoe box" 1949-51 Ford for the time looked more modern then the Plymouth of the same era and it helped Ford to regain the #2 spot from Chrysler in 1952. http://auto.howstuffworks.com/1949-ford.htm
Then in 1957, Chrysler tried to stun the design with the Forward look for all its line-up, Dodge, DeSoto, Plymouth, Chrysler and Imperial. It forced GM to redraw the planned 1959 models who was originally scheduled to be restuffed and overchromed 1958.
http://blog.hemmings.com/index.php/2012/07/15/sia-flashback-gms-far-out-59s-when-imagination-ran-rampant-part-i/
http://blog.hemmings.com/index.php/2012/07/22/sia-flashback-gms-far-out-59s-when-imagination-ran-rampant-part-ii/#.UAygHYYp8Jo.blogger
Once you check car websites like Curbside Classic, Hemmings Blog, Hooniverse, etc... you'll became addicted to some good old car articles. ;)
Here a commercial of the 1957 Plymouth
Quote from: briantroutman on November 26, 2013, 06:57:55 PM
Quote from: PHLBOS on November 25, 2013, 01:24:00 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),
FTFY
"Cars used to be so unique."
"All cars look the same today."
Can we shoot this fallacy in the face for good?
Maybe it would be more correct to say, "All cars made in a similar era look the same/similar."
In any case, here are my predictions for 25 years hence:
- Average cost of gasoline per gallon (if hydrocarbons are still in use by then): $4.50, utilizing the average rate of inflation from the 1987-2012 period, extrapolated forward in time (all bets are off if hyperinflation should intervene).
- All billboards will be digital/changeable, perhaps tailored to individual drivers' preferences (like Internet ads)
- Car sharing much more common; this holds even more true if energy costs skyrocket.
- I see a leveling off/slower growth of VMT as the population ages and the younger generations exercise a general preference for living in closer proximity to workplaces and services. Annual VMT has already been in decline since 2008.
- If self driving cars should become common, would most road signage be necessary? I can see signage existing in some bare bones sense for the passenger to know where he/she is.
- Of course, this assumes the government doesn't impose some form of restrictions on personal travel for (stated) purposes of energy conservation/environmental protection, especially if fuel costs soar. (We take it for granted that we are able to essentially move around the country freely. In countries of a more totalitarian bent, this is not so true.)
We will always need signs, even if self-driving cars happen, just in case something happens like your car battery dies. How will you tell people where you are when you call for help? (What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 27, 2013, 07:47:33 PM
We will always need signs, even if self-driving cars happen, just in case something happens like your car battery dies. How will you tell people where you are when you call for help? (What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)
I hope so. Signage is half the fun of this hobby. :)
Though would things like, say, stop signs, warning signs, and speed limit signs be necessary? The road network could be programmed into one master GPS, with realtime road conditions and restrictions being fed to the driver/computer at all times. This is definitely a doable prospect in jurisdictions which have good GIS data at hand.
Of course, the quality of the data is key. Bad data would be the Achilles heel of such a system.
In any case, appropriate signage should remain for those drivers who prefer to drive themselves (assuming that would be allowed alongside self-driving cars) and for emergency situations.
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 27, 2013, 07:47:33 PM
(What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)
Placing new roads or realigned roads into GPS
should be part of every road contract by then. Not sure why it isn't already, especially with GPS guided construction equipment becoming more common.
Quote from: DaBigE on November 28, 2013, 12:21:57 AM
Placing new roads or realigned roads into GPS should be part of every road contract by then. Not sure why it isn't already, especially with GPS guided construction equipment becoming more common.
And one can only use Official Government Approved Maps. Hello, China!
Quote from: DaBigE on November 28, 2013, 12:21:57 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 27, 2013, 07:47:33 PM
(What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)
Placing new roads or realigned roads into GPS should be part of every road contract by then. Not sure why it isn't already, especially with GPS guided construction equipment becoming more common.
The thing is that GPS is a
passive system where a receiver uses the timing differences between several beacon satellites of known position to determine a position on the ground. The satellites continually transmit their positions and their high-precision timing signals. Signals from three satellites are needed to accurately determine long/lat position and a fourth is needed to determine altitude. IIRC, the USA military's GPS satellite constellation (what consumer-grade GPS receivers use) has 24 active satellites that all orbit the Earth about twice per day.
How precise are their timing signals? The atomic clocks on each are believed to be the second most accurate clocks in existence and they have to be adjusted to account for Einstein's general theory of relativity - time (and clocks) runs more slowly as gravitational fields strengthen, stopping entirely at the event horizons of black holes, and the relativistic difference in the strength of earth's gravitational field between the surface and the orbital levels of the satellites is enough that GPS would not work without that adjustment.
All of that snazzy (and sometimes notoriously inaccurate!) map programming, etc, is done by the manufacturers of the receivers.
Mike
When people talk about "GPS", they're referring to GPS receivers. I sometimes wonder how someone could possibly install 24[citation needed] satellites in their car, or something like that, then I realize "oh, you meant GPS receiver."
My gut tells me that except for those of us who maintain our cars forever, manual transmissions will be missed.
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 years, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars), so I'll miss the individuality of older cars. Even now something from the 1980s gets more attention from me on the road than, say, a Tesla.
60 years ago they looked virtually the same. I still can't tell you a 1955 Buick from a 1955 Chevy from a 1955 Ford. They look more alike than anything built today.
Quote from: Brandon on November 28, 2013, 06:59:37 PM
Quote from: Takumi on November 25, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
In 25 years, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars), so I'll miss the individuality of older cars. Even now something from the 1980s gets more attention from me on the road than, say, a Tesla.
60 years ago they looked virtually the same. I still can't tell you a 1955 Buick from a 1955 Chevy from a 1955 Ford. They look more alike than anything built today.
If you say so. I have no problem telling the make and year model of virtually any American car of the '50s and '60s. They all were very unique and each marque had its own trademark styling cues. Today, cars are just so ugly and boring that I don't even make the effort to learn to tell them apart.
You probably won't see me. I'll be 90 and probably gone. Of course my wife's grandparents drove until in their 90's, I think 93. If I am still breathing my keys will be in my hand. I told my kids if you take away my keys start digging the hole.
Gone will be the Chevy push rod V-8.
Don't count the old OHV V8s out yet. I bet if this question came up 25 years ago, we would have guessed that the small block Chevy engine would be history. The original design is no longer being made, but the LS series and the upcoming LT series are heavily based on the old small block dating from 1955. Also, Chrysler came out with a pushrod engine in the 2000s (the "hemi" which is really a poly).
Quote from: Scott5114 on November 27, 2013, 07:47:33 PM
We will always need signs, even if self-driving cars happen, just in case something happens like your car battery dies. How will you tell people where you are when you call for help? (What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)
I don't think guide signage would ever go away entirely. But I can envision a future where it would be merely a shadow of what it is today. Perhaps mile markers to reference your location in an emergency, vestigial guide signs at exit gores, etc.–but closer in scale to the postmiles in California or the reference markers in New York, Pennsylvania, and other states.
But I didn't just mean that signage would be removed because people are following GPS instructions and the signage would therefore be superfluous. Considering a number of possible future trends–increasing traffic volumes and mounting congestion, need to communicate traffic conditions, proliferation of toll roads and dynamic pricing–I think it's not difficult to imagine that one day, these needs will result in a national (perhaps even international) standard for communicating this data inside the vehicle. And perhaps the situation would even progress to the point that you wouldn't be allowed to drive on certain roads if you're car isn't "IntelliGuide certified" (or whatever it's called).
Yes but what about poor people or the collector with his 1982 Chevy Citation... That kind of reasoning didn't stop the FCC from pulling the plug on 50+ years of television sets in order to reallocate limited radio spectrum bandwidth. And similarly, I could imagine the DOT doing the same for our limited highway "bandwidth". And likely with the same kind of free converter program that accompanied the DTV transition.
I'm not saying that I want this future or that I would be looking forward to it. Definitely not. But the advantages would be obvious. Reduced cost for signage installation, repair, and replacement, more instantaneous and proactive management of traffic volume, clear communication of toll pricing, an so on.
Don't give them ideas.
It would be totally boss if self-driving vehicles were the norm in 25 years. Even if it's just on the interstates (and their ilk) that would seriously increase the capacity of every roadway that uses the technology exclusively. Instead of eight and ten lane behemoths segmenting our cities, a single lane of vehicles streams across town at like 90 mph with individual cars darting in and out at exits. Might be optimistic for just quarter century, but I really want to pull on to an on-ramp an just tell the vehicle to take me to exit 234 or whatever and then sit back and enjoy the ride; maybe watch a movie...
More realistically, driving stuff is has so much inertia behind it, trips in 25 years will probably look about the same. Just a few more gizmos in your car and some design style that everyone will laugh at in another 25 years. And tons more congestion even though the technology will exist to make most of it go away.
Quote from: briantroutman on November 29, 2013, 04:06:01 PMYes but what about poor people or the collector with his 1982 Chevy Citation... That kind of reasoning didn't stop the FCC from pulling the plug on 50+ years of television sets in order to reallocate limited radio spectrum bandwidth. And similarly, I could imagine the DOT doing the same for our limited highway "bandwidth". And likely with the same kind of free converter program that accompanied the DTV transition.
A few major differences regarding TVs and cars:
1. Maintenance costs of a TV vs. such on a car (for the new techo gadgets related to GPS' and/or self-driving) are minimal in comparison. If a TV breaks down; one just buys a new one. That can not be said regarding cars. While one still sees tons of auto repair shops/centers (those aren't going away anytime soon); when was the last time someone saw a TV repair shop? My guess would be few & far between.
2. The purchase price of the newest and largest TV available in most stores is
still $1000s cheaper than that of a
new, subcompact, entry-level car. Typically, when a new style TV rolls out, it's rather pricey; but over time, the purchase costs drops (LCD TVs are comparitively dirt-cheap now). The same can not be said for new car prices. For an example, the price of a 2014 Ford Focus will still be higher than that of a similarly-equipped 2012 Ford Focus when new.
3. While a TV (for home or business) is a stationary item, a motor vehicle is not. Such a smart-device or whatever would cause legitimate concerns over invasion of privacy and/or reeks of
Big Brother.
No thank you to the above IMHO.