Note: Site paywalled. PM me if you cannot read this with a real e-mail address and I will arrange alternate access.Hint, it's
not southern California. It's northern California, Oregon, Washington and British Columbia.
The New Yorker: The Really Big One -
An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when. (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one)
QuoteWhen the 2011 earthquake and tsunami struck Tohoku, Japan, Chris Goldfinger was two hundred miles away, in the city of Kashiwa, at an international meeting on seismology. As the shaking started, everyone in the room began to laugh. Earthquakes are common in Japan–that one was the third of the week–and the participants were, after all, at a seismology conference. Then everyone in the room checked the time.
QuoteSeismologists know that how long an earthquake lasts is a decent proxy for its magnitude. The 1989 earthquake in Loma Prieta, California, which killed sixty-three people and caused six billion dollars' worth of damage, lasted about fifteen seconds and had a magnitude of 6.9. A thirty-second earthquake generally has a magnitude in the mid-sevens. A minute-long quake is in the high sevens, a two-minute quake has entered the eights, and a three-minute quake is in the high eights. By four minutes, an earthquake has hit magnitude 9.0.
QuoteWhen Goldfinger looked at his watch, it was quarter to three. The conference was wrapping up for the day. He was thinking about sushi. The speaker at the lectern was wondering if he should carry on with his talk. The earthquake was not particularly strong. Then it ticked past the sixty-second mark, making it longer than the others that week. The shaking intensified. The seats in the conference room were small plastic desks with wheels. Goldfinger, who is tall and solidly built, thought, No way am I crouching under one of those for cover. At a minute and a half, everyone in the room got up and went outside.
QuoteIt was March. There was a chill in the air, and snow flurries, but no snow on the ground. Nor, from the feel of it, was there ground on the ground. The earth snapped and popped and rippled. It was, Goldfinger thought, like driving through rocky terrain in a vehicle with no shocks, if both the vehicle and the terrain were also on a raft in high seas. The quake passed the two-minute mark. The trees, still hung with the previous autumn's dead leaves, were making a strange rattling sound. The flagpole atop the building he and his colleagues had just vacated was whipping through an arc of forty degrees. The building itself was base-isolated, a seismic-safety technology in which the body of a structure rests on movable bearings rather than directly on its foundation. Goldfinger lurched over to take a look. The base was lurching, too, back and forth a foot at a time, digging a trench in the yard. He thought better of it, and lurched away. His watch swept past the three-minute mark and kept going.
QuoteOh, shit, Goldfinger thought, although not in dread, at first: in amazement. For decades, seismologists had believed that Japan could not experience an earthquake stronger than magnitude 8.4. In 2005, however, at a conference in Hokudan, a Japanese geologist named Yasutaka Ikeda had argued that the nation should expect a magnitude 9.0 in the near future–with catastrophic consequences, because Japan's famous earthquake-and-tsunami preparedness, including the height of its sea walls, was based on incorrect science. The presentation was met with polite applause and thereafter largely ignored. Now, Goldfinger realized as the shaking hit the four-minute mark, the planet was proving the Japanese Cassandra right.
And it will be our luck that this fault will go off at the same time that the New Madrid fault decides to get freaky.
Seriously not good.
Hopefully it doesn't happen when I'm there.
Anyways, folks in the northwest are not ready for this type of event. When it happens, there will be massive causalities unfortunately.
Quote from: DeaconG on July 14, 2015, 09:11:16 AM
And it will be our luck that this fault will go off at the same time that the New Madrid fault decides to get freaky.
Seriously not good.
Last time, there was over a 100 year gap between the Cascadia quake (and resulting tsunami) and a series of New Madrid quakes.
How much money has been spent to harden transportation infrastructure in these places? Probably not enough, especially in the Pacific Northwest. I assert that the creaky bridge that carries I-5 over the Columbia River is especially vulnerable to a 9.0 quake, yet Portland's planners were much more interested in building light rail to southern Washington than they were in a more robust bridge.
Quote from: cpzilliacus on July 14, 2015, 11:23:43 AM
Quote from: DeaconG on July 14, 2015, 09:11:16 AM
And it will be our luck that this fault will go off at the same time that the New Madrid fault decides to get freaky.
Seriously not good.
Last time, there was over a 100 year gap between the Cascadia quake (and resulting tsunami) and a series of New Madrid quakes.
How much money has been spent to harden transportation infrastructure in these places? Probably not enough, especially in the Pacific Northwest. I assert that the creaky bridge that carries I-5 over the Columbia River is especially vulnerable to a 9.0 quake, yet Portland's planners were much more interested in building light rail to southern Washington than they were in a more robust bridge.
They should have just planned to make accomdations for future light rail instead of planning to actually make it which would be an entirely different project in itself.
Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?
"The Big One" has been talked about for decades, and based on predictions, it should've happened 10 or 20 years ago.
Technically, you can make anything, "Anything Proof". But the cost in order to make it Anything Proof is astronomical, and even then, it probably isn't absolutely Anything Proof. Just making everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof is a multi-trillion dollar venture. And you're just hoping that when it does it, it hits in an area that make great strides to make everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 14, 2015, 12:19:30 PM
"The Big One" has been talked about for decades, and based on predictions, it should've happened 10 or 20 years ago.
Technically, you can make anything, "Anything Proof". But the cost in order to make it Anything Proof is astronomical, and even then, it probably isn't absolutely Anything Proof. Just making everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof is a multi-trillion dollar venture. And you're just hoping that when it does it, it hits in an area that make great strides to make everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof.
The geological record regarding massive Cascadia Subduction Zone quakes is now pretty clear.
Fortunately, the Pacific Coast is
relatively undeveloped for long sections of California, Oregon, Washington and British Columbia coasts, with little more than beaches.
But the
transportation infrastructure appears not to have been engineered to resist a 9.0 quake (case in point being the creaky bridge that carries I-5 over the Columbia River).
This will be the biggest economic hit from a natural disaster of all time. As for magnitude it should make the top three. The coast from NorCal up to BC will be uninhabitable for the most part for decades due to the cost of rebuilding. The I-5 corridor will see a lesser but still quite thorough level of destruction.
For us amateur radio operators who are part of ARES/RACES (official emcomm), we do our part to train, gather gear and hope that a few of us survive in order to give the affected areas some sort of communications capability on VHF/UHF and on what most people would call the shortwave frequencies. Voice and digital modes are used. We who are certified have passed various FEMA courses and a background check as well as doing training, simulated exercises and weekly radio nets.
If this interests you, check your local county for an amateur radio group to get connected with so you can begin to learn enough to help out with the emcomm situation. The more the merrier as who knows what will be left, who will be around and where we will be when The Big One hits.
Here is a link to an article from a PDX alternative newspaper five years ago. It is still a very relevant read:
http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-11577-permalink.html
There will be no cellphone, landline, cable or internet service remaining. Repeaters handling VHF/UHF radios will be brought down. They are used by government agencies, commercial users and amateur radio operators. Fiber optic cables will be broken in multiple places. Broadcast radio antenna towers will tumble to the ground. Unlike CB radio, which is a very limited radio service in so many areas including a small frequency allotment, amateur radio offers a massive spread of frequencies and modes as well as higher legal power limits to work with. In an emergency an amateur radio operator can legally use any frequency they need to handle the situation.
Passing the Technician and General test rates about as tough as passing a driver's license test for those with some radio, technological and scientific background. You can find online various sites that will let you take the tests for practice at no cost. Do them over and over until you can score 90% or better consistently, then find your local amateur group in order to discover the dates, times and places for exams held by amateurs certified to administer them.
After that get hooked up with the ARES/RACES or equivalent group. They will show you how to take the FEMA courses online and what you will need to do for the background check. Attend the meetings, do the exercises, acquire the gear and be prepared!
None of this is easy stuff that gets handed to you on a platter but with a modicum of effort and intelligence it is quite doable. Why be left in the dark over what's happening when you can be in the middle of the communications that will be transpiring?
Rick
Cats and dogs living together -- mass hysteria!
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2015, 11:39:59 AM
Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?
Um, no. The Gambler's Fallacy would be "it's certain to happen in the next X years," not "there's a 1 in 3 chance it will happen in the next X years."
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2015, 11:39:59 AM
Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?
The gambler's fallacy is for events that are truly random. For earthquakes, since it's rock releasing pent-up pressure, it makes sense that the probability of occurrence would increase over time as the pressure on the rocks increases.
Quote from: realjd on July 15, 2015, 08:41:34 AM
Quote from: 1 on July 14, 2015, 11:39:59 AM
Isn't this just an example of the Gambler's Fallacy?
The gambler's fallacy is for events that are truly random. For earthquakes, since it's rock releasing pent-up pressure, it makes sense that the probability of occurrence would increase over time as the pressure on the rocks increases.
We have knowledge passed-down from Japanese history, as well as Native American oral histories, that tsunamis resulting from subduction zone quakes have happened on a regular basis for many years. That's not gambling, even though we may not be able to forecast exactly when such a quake will take place.
This article is the most horrifying thing I'll read all year, that's for sure. I was talking to my cousin who lives in Portland about it and she was saying that everyone there has been at least vaguely aware of the threat for a while but hopefully this article puts people on edge enough to get any sort of preparation system or improved infrastructure in place. Other than that, she was like "hopefully it just hits during a time when we're all at home together." The resigned nonchalance in her tone was pretty sobering.
Will the areas in the more easternly areas (Spokane, Okanagan Valley, Tri-cities, Bend) could be badly damaged as well?
Still in the same area, there's Mount Rainier who could decide to blow like Mt. St. Helens and depending where the lava/mud/ash goes....Seattle could be hit.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/savageplanet/01volcano/03/indexmid.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me_s0b-w7FY
If you are east of the Cascades you should not be affected. The first range of earthquake destruction goes from the coast to the Coast Range. That is the area where the ground can shift as much as 16 feet. From the east side of the Coast Range to the Cascades is the second range of destruction. That area will see magnitude 7.0+ and up to 7 feet of shifting ground.
In the Cascades you can expect slides to close the passes and Columbia Gorge.
Rick
Quote from: wphiii on July 15, 2015, 01:24:25 PM
This article is the most horrifying thing I'll read all year, that's for sure. I was talking to my cousin who lives in Portland about it and she was saying that everyone there has been at least vaguely aware of the threat for a while but hopefully this article puts people on edge enough to get any sort of preparation system or improved infrastructure in place. Other than that, she was like "hopefully it just hits during a time when we're all at home together." The resigned nonchalance in her tone was pretty sobering.
Several things that Portland could do include:
1. Hardening of their highway network bridges, and
including specifically a new bridge to carry I-5 traffic (but not light rail) across the Columbia River.
2. Hardening of their electric transmission infrastructure.
3.
Stop with the light rail fantasy (it likely won't work after a 9.0 quake anyway).
A couple of years back, NYSDOT had a "Hardening of the Infrastructure" initiative. It didn't last long and the title did lead to more than a few off-color jokes. I'm surprised the Post didn't have a headline that read "DOT Says Bridges Need Viagara!"
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 14, 2015, 12:19:30 PM
"The Big One" has been talked about for decades, and based on predictions, it should've happened 10 or 20 years ago.
We know a lot more about it now than we did 10 or 20 years ago.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 14, 2015, 12:19:30 PM
Technically, you can make anything, "Anything Proof". But the cost in order to make it Anything Proof is astronomical, and even then, it probably isn't absolutely Anything Proof. Just making everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof is a multi-trillion dollar venture. And you're just hoping that when it does it, it hits in an area that make great strides to make everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof.
The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.
Quote from: jakeroot on July 16, 2015, 06:17:16 PM
The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.
But earthquakes don't have alot of warning before they happen, or do they?
Quote from: iBallasticwolf2 on July 16, 2015, 06:19:37 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 16, 2015, 06:17:16 PM
The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.
But earthquakes don't have alot of warning before they happen, or do they?
As stated in the article,
Quote
The first sign that the Cascadia earthquake has begun will be a compressional wave, radiating outward from the fault line. Compressional waves are fast-moving, high-frequency waves, audible to dogs and certain other animals but experienced by humans only as a sudden jolt. They are not very harmful, but they are potentially very useful, since they travel fast enough to be detected by sensors thirty to ninety seconds ahead of other seismic waves. That is enough time for earthquake early-warning systems, such as those in use throughout Japan, to automatically perform a variety of lifesaving functions: shutting down railways and power plants, opening elevators and firehouse doors, alerting hospitals to halt surgeries, and triggering alarms so that the general public can take cover
So, sort of yes. You still get that initial jolt, but the big rattle is still some time away. Enough time away to take action.
Quote from: jakeroot on July 16, 2015, 06:22:32 PM
Quote from: iBallasticwolf2 on July 16, 2015, 06:19:37 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on July 16, 2015, 06:17:16 PM
The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.
But earthquakes don't have alot of warning before they happen, or do they?
As stated in the article,
Quote
The first sign that the Cascadia earthquake has begun will be a compressional wave, radiating outward from the fault line. Compressional waves are fast-moving, high-frequency waves, audible to dogs and certain other animals but experienced by humans only as a sudden jolt. They are not very harmful, but they are potentially very useful, since they travel fast enough to be detected by sensors thirty to ninety seconds ahead of other seismic waves. That is enough time for earthquake early-warning systems, such as those in use throughout Japan, to automatically perform a variety of lifesaving functions: shutting down railways and power plants, opening elevators and firehouse doors, alerting hospitals to halt surgeries, and triggering alarms so that the general public can take cover
So, sort of yes. You still get that initial jolt, but the big rattle is still some time away. Enough time away to take action.
In that an early warning system could be extremely useful in saving lives in this earthquake.
Quote from: iBallasticwolf2 on July 16, 2015, 06:41:37 PM
In that an early warning system could be extremely useful in saving lives in this earthquake.
We would have to spend tax dollars (and quite a lot of them) to come up with an alerting system to run from Northern California up to the Washington/British Columbia border.
The crowd in charge on Capitol Hill would deem that a "waste of money."
Quote from: cpzilliacus on July 16, 2015, 07:25:20 PM
Quote from: iBallasticwolf2 on July 16, 2015, 06:41:37 PM
In that an early warning system could be extremely useful in saving lives in this earthquake.
We would have to spend tax dollars (and quite a lot of them) to come up with an alerting system to run from Northern California up to the Washington/British Columbia border.
The crowd in charge on Capitol Hill would deem that a "waste of money."
The city of Puyallup, where I've lived off an on for the past 19 years, has an early-warning system (along with other neighboring suburbs) in the event Mount Rainier goes off (Puyallup is in the shadow of the mountain linked in the video above by Stephane Dumas). Mount Rainier will produce heavy lahars capable of wiping out everything in its path, so the local communities, Pierce County, and the State of Washington got together in the early 2000s to develop the early warning system to protect the valley denizens:
https://youtu.be/ZFE9eoij9L0
As for an early-warning system Cascadia-wide? Indeed, the chances of the monies flowing in are slim to none. But, this is proof that it can be done.
Quote from: jakeroot on July 16, 2015, 08:12:39 PM
As for an early-warning system Cascadia-wide? Indeed, the chances of the monies flowing in are slim to none. But, this is proof that it can be done.
Interesting, could a similar system might work for the New Madrid fault line area?
Also, I saw this blog post about nuclear reactors and waste sites along the west coast and their fate in case of earthquake. I hope we won't have another Fukushima.
http://nuclear-news.net/2013/03/15/scientists-predict-earthquake-expected-anytime-on-us-west-coast-nuclear-reactors-and-waste-dumps-at-risk/
Thank you Jakeroot for posting this:
The first sign that the Cascadia earthquake has begun will be a compressional wave, radiating outward from the fault line. Compressional waves are fast-moving, high-frequency waves, audible to dogs and certain other animals but experienced by humans only as a sudden jolt. They are not very harmful, but they are potentially very useful, since they travel fast enough to be detected by sensors thirty to ninety seconds ahead of other seismic waves. That is enough time for earthquake early-warning systems, such as those in use throughout Japan, to automatically perform a variety of lifesaving functions: shutting down railways and power plants, opening elevators and firehouse doors, alerting hospitals to halt surgeries, and triggering alarms so that the general public can take cover.
Where I live is right on the front line of that seismic wave's path. Coos and Curry counties are Ground Zero. Thank you for posting such useful life-saving information. I just hope that I am not asleep when that jolt comes for 30 seconds is all I will have to get to what I believe is the safe spot for me at home.
Rick
Quote from: jakeroot on July 16, 2015, 06:17:16 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 14, 2015, 12:19:30 PM
"The Big One" has been talked about for decades, and based on predictions, it should've happened 10 or 20 years ago.
We know a lot more about it now than we did 10 or 20 years ago.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 14, 2015, 12:19:30 PM
Technically, you can make anything, "Anything Proof". But the cost in order to make it Anything Proof is astronomical, and even then, it probably isn't absolutely Anything Proof. Just making everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof is a multi-trillion dollar venture. And you're just hoping that when it does it, it hits in an area that make great strides to make everything 9.0 Earthquake Proof.
The best thing is to develop an early-warning system like they have in Japan. If we can get most people to a safe place before the quake or tsunami, I would be happy.
We may know a lot more about an earthquake before it happens, but that's way different than predicting when it will happen.
And based on what I'm reading here in other posts, the early warning system gives about 30-90 seconds of warning time. It may be enough time to trigger automatic functions, but it's barely enough time to get a text alert out, have people acknowledge it, and dive under a desk or get into a safe place. If you're in a car, the red light you're stopped at could last longer than the time between the alert and the earthquake. If you're not in a safe place already, 90 seconds isn't going to provide the time to get to a safe place.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimgs.xkcd.com%2Fcomics%2Fseismic_waves.png&hash=b22020f6d3f42e8ac3dc7f221e2bf5c000e84d60)
Quote from: NJRoadfan on July 17, 2015, 04:05:58 PM
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimgs.xkcd.com%2Fcomics%2Fseismic_waves.png&hash=b22020f6d3f42e8ac3dc7f221e2bf5c000e84d60)
There is no cure for stupid.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 17, 2015, 03:20:36 PM
And based on what I'm reading here in other posts, the early warning system gives about 30-90 seconds of warning time. It may be enough time to trigger automatic functions, but it's barely enough time to get a text alert out, have people acknowledge it, and dive under a desk or get into a safe place. If you're in a car, the red light you're stopped at could last longer than the time between the alert and the earthquake. If you're not in a safe place already, 90 seconds isn't going to provide the time to get to a safe place.
90 seconds is a pretty long time. Long enough, to say, block traffic from entering a dangerous bridge prone to collapse (e.g. the Alaskan Way Viaduct) or evacuate a small building. Larger buildings, found most often in downtown areas, are likely strong enough to resist shaking. Many buildings in the Seattle area are built on rollers, and can resist a substantial amount of shaking. Contents within the buildings are screwed (file cabinets, computer monitors, etc), but at least the building doesn't go.
From what I've read, the early warning systems can detect the initial jolt basically the second it happens. Modern computers are capable of talking to each other at a rapid pace. I'd venture to say that within maybe two or three seconds of the initial jolt, you could get the message sent to most phones, elevators, hospitals, school speakers, etc.
My understanding is that what the early warning system does is tell vital but vulnerable operating equipment to alter its behavior in a way that makes it less prone to being damaged. For example, when an early warning trips, it could trigger things like:
- trains applying their brakes and coming to a stop so they aren't in motion when the quake hits, thus making them less likely to catastrophically derail
- valves in gas lines automatically closing so that ruptures in buildings do not create massive fires and explosions
- pumps at gas stations automatically shutting off so they they don't spill and start fires
- etc.
It's not meant to be a signal for people to do anything. But it can automatically trigger a lot of computer controlled actions to help reduce the damage.
Quote from: Duke87 on July 17, 2015, 07:01:03 PM
It's not meant to be a signal for people to do anything. But it can automatically trigger a lot of computer controlled actions to help reduce the damage.
I'd be pretty pissed if my elevator just stopped working without telling me that there was an earthquake about to strike. :-D
Quote from: jakeroot on July 17, 2015, 05:04:23 PM
90 seconds is a pretty long time. Long enough, to say, block traffic from entering a dangerous bridge prone to collapse (e.g. the Alaskan Way Viaduct) or evacuate a small building.
No, it will take much longer than 90 seconds to get emergency personnel out to the facility and safely setting up a block. Also, the building would have to be very small-- at NYSDOT's Main Office, I don't think the building has been evacuated as quickly as 90 seconds ever and it's a medium-sized office building all said and done.
A long time ago, I believe some aviation safety council recommended that a 737-sized airplane on fire be evacuated in 90 seconds without actually seeing if it could be done before issuing such a recommendation. Later tests proved that there was no way you could evacuate such an airplane in such a short time (i.e., testing by actually putting a decent mix of people on a plane with even a trained crew -- couldn't be done).
Anyway, it does seem like a long time in some regards, but there's a reason why it's counted in usually in seconds.
Quote from: Rothman on July 17, 2015, 07:47:27 PM
No, it will take much longer than 90 seconds to get emergency personnel out to the facility and safely setting up a block.
One could install gate arms at the entrances and have them automatically deploy.
Quote from: vdeane on July 19, 2015, 10:32:09 PM
Quote from: Rothman on July 17, 2015, 07:47:27 PM
No, it will take much longer than 90 seconds to get emergency personnel out to the facility and safely setting up a block.
One could install gate arms at the entrances and have them automatically deploy.
I was thinking bollards but same thing.
Quote from: jakeroot on July 17, 2015, 07:42:58 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on July 17, 2015, 07:01:03 PM
It's not meant to be a signal for people to do anything. But it can automatically trigger a lot of computer controlled actions to help reduce the damage.
I'd be pretty pissed if my elevator just stopped working without telling me that there was an earthquake about to strike. :-D
"Go to the nearest floor, open your doors, and then stay there" might be a reasonable response.
Quote from: cpzilliacus on July 16, 2015, 11:12:23 AM
Several things that Portland could do include:
1. Hardening of their highway network bridges, and including specifically a new bridge to carry I-5 traffic (but not light rail) across the Columbia River.
2. Hardening of their electric transmission infrastructure.
3. Stop with the light rail fantasy (it likely won't work after a 9.0 quake anyway).
Well, nothing is going to work after a 9.0. Light rail could be prioritized to be put back online in the second wave of relief to actually help people get to/from services that will surely be centered around what remains of downtown Portland. Sure beats riding a bus over a bumpy freeway.
Also considering the track record that railways have in Japan versus some of their freeways (see Hashin Expressway in Kobe), and considering that MAX was built later with updated earthquake standards, I'd rather be on light rail than in a car when the big one strikes.
The CRC should've been built as a highway bridge with the guideway for a light rail extension. Vancouver really should've taken the offer to get a free pass into one of the most extensive light rail networks in the nation, even if it barely made its way into downtown.
Quote from: Bruce on July 20, 2015, 12:51:01 AM
Quote from: cpzilliacus on July 16, 2015, 11:12:23 AM
Several things that Portland could do include:
1. Hardening of their highway network bridges, and including specifically a new bridge to carry I-5 traffic (but not light rail) across the Columbia River.
2. Hardening of their electric transmission infrastructure.
3. Stop with the light rail fantasy (it likely won't work after a 9.0 quake anyway).
Well, nothing is going to work after a 9.0. Light rail could be prioritized to be put back online in the second wave of relief to actually help people get to/from services that will surely be centered around what remains of downtown Portland. Sure beats riding a bus over a bumpy freeway.
Also considering the track record that railways have in Japan versus some of their freeways (see Hashin Expressway in Kobe), and considering that MAX was built later with updated earthquake standards, I'd rather be on light rail than in a car when the big one strikes.
The CRC should've been built as a highway bridge with the guideway for a light rail extension. Vancouver really should've taken the offer to get a free pass into one of the most extensive light rail networks in the nation, even if it barely made its way into downtown.
I don't see how light rail would be an improvement to buses or practical in any destructive tremor. The same 'bumpy freeway' argument can be used for any mass transit ROW. A bus doesn't have to stay on a track that will potentially have debris and damage on it. Not to mention, this assumes electricity will be working and that none of the overhead power-lines are compromised.
Japan also has a much stronger rail network than SoundTransit or MAX.
Quote from: Bruce on July 20, 2015, 12:51:01 AM
Well, nothing is going to work after a 9.0. Light rail could be prioritized to be put back online in the second wave of relief to actually help people get to/from services that will surely be centered around what remains of downtown Portland. Sure beats riding a bus over a bumpy freeway.
Sorry, I must disagree. Do you think the Steel Bridge (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steel_Bridge) over the Willamette River (according to the hyperlinked Wikipedia article, opened in
1912), is going to survive a 9.0? While there were plenty of good civil and structural engineers in the U.S. back then, how many of them knew about the seismic hazards of the Pacific Northwest then?
Doesn't
every MAX line pass over that bridge? Which was a pretty bumpy ride on the several trips by MAX train I took crossing that span (when I visited Portland some years ago).
Quote from: Bruce on July 20, 2015, 12:51:01 AM
Also considering the track record that railways have in Japan versus some of their freeways (see Hashin Expressway in Kobe), and considering that MAX was built later with updated earthquake standards, I'd rather be on light rail than in a car when the big one strikes.
If you are on MAX, that train is going to come to an
immediate halt as soon as the power goes out (as it presumably will in a 9.0).
Quote from: Bruce on July 20, 2015, 12:51:01 AM
The CRC should've been built as a highway bridge with the guideway for a light rail extension. Vancouver really should've taken the offer to get a free pass into one of the most extensive light rail networks in the nation, even if it barely made its way into downtown.
Built as a highway bridge
with added lane capacity.
I can assure you that getting involved in any light rail system will not be a "free pass" for the taxpayers of Washington.
QuoteOh, shit, Goldfinger thought, although not in dread, at first: in amazement. For decades, seismologists had believed that Japan could not experience an earthquake stronger than magnitude 8.4. In 2005, however, at a conference in Hokudan, a Japanese geologist named Yasutaka Ikeda had argued that the nation should expect a magnitude 9.0 in the near future–with catastrophic consequences, because Japan's famous earthquake-and-tsunami preparedness, including the height of its sea walls, was based on incorrect science. The presentation was met with polite applause and thereafter largely ignored. Now, Goldfinger realized as the shaking hit the four-minute mark, the planet was proving the Japanese Cassandra right.
I find it shocking this was the thinking in Japan after 1964.
Between the 9+ earthquakes experienced in Chile and Alaska at subduction zones around that time I would have to think that everyone would have no choice but to accept the reality that any place with a subduction zone could experience one of these devastating quakes.
The benefit of hindsight, though...
Follow-up article in the New Yorker from a week or two ago: How to Stay Safe When the Big One Comes (http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes)
QuoteFor most of the past three years, I've worked as a book critic, which is not a job that affords me many opportunities to scare the living daylights out of my readers. (Authors, occasionally; readers, no.) But earlier this month, when a story I wrote about a dangerous fault line in the Pacific Northwest hit the newsstands, the overwhelming response was alarm. "Terrifying," the story kept getting called; also "truly terrifying," "incredibly terrifying," "horrifying," and "scary as fuck." "Don't read it if you want to go back to sleep," one reader warned. "It's hard to overhype how scary it is," Buzzfeed said. "New Yorker scares the bejesus out of NW," the Seattle Post-Intelligencer wrote.
QuoteNovelists and screenwriters can terrify people, feel pretty good about themselves, and call it a day. But for journalists, or at least this one, fear is not an end in itself. At best, it is a means to an end, a way to channel emotion into action. To achieve that, however, you need to navigate between the twin obstacles of panic (which makes you do all the wrong things) and fatalism (which makes you do nothing). In an effort to help people to do so, I've answered, below, some of the questions I've heard most often since the story was published, and also provided a little advice about how best to prepare for the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami, and their aftermath.
QuoteThe Cascadia subduction zone runs from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. Those who live anywhere in that region and west of the Cascade Mountains are at risk–but how much risk and what kind varies considerably, based on where exactly you live in relationship to the fault line, how susceptible your area is to liquefaction and landslides, what kind of structure you're in when the quake occurs, and your local seismic codes. In general, however, the shaking will be strongest on the coast and diminish somewhat as you move inland.