Inspired by the thread's converse (aka under the radar cities) as well as a corresponding topic in the CityData forums, which city in the US, in your opinion, has the highest chance of decaying in the near future like Detroit did, and why?
My first thought was Chicago, due to the high crime rate, but then I looked at the population numbers, and the population is not decreasing from 2010 to now.
There won't likely be another Detroit level decline of a city. Most modern cities have far more diverse industries and economic bases compared to what the Mid-West had. Detroit specifically was tied to the American Auto Industry and the fact that it had almost the entire US Market share, essentially it had all the eggs in one basket. Cities like Cleveland, Pittsburg, Buffalo, Gary, in addition to many other smaller Mid-West cities had similar declines in the second half of the 20th century.
Right now I'd say New Orleans is the most likely to eventually decline due to a heavily weighted industrial economy and the fact that it is located on terrain that will become increasingly difficult to manage with rising sea levels. Hurricane Katrina really did a number on that city and drove the population down significantly.
Quote from: WISFreeways on August 07, 2017, 02:00:58 AM
Inspired by the thread's converse (aka under the radar cities) as well as a corresponding topic in the CityData forums, which city in the US, in your opinion, has the highest chance of decaying in the near future like Detroit did, and why?
In the comments sections within newspapers, nearly every pessimist says that their city will become the next Detroit. Especially over things that had nothing to do with Detroit.
I can name 5 cities similar to Detroit or headed to become a ruin, they are: 1. Camden NJ, 2. East St Louis MO, 3. Gary IN, 4. New Orleans LA (rising sea level) and 5. Welch WV - the post-coal economy nearly killed that place. For CA, the 5 cities which has the negativity but not total decline like Detroit are 1. El Centro (on the Mexican border), 2. Oakland, 3. San Bernardino, 4. Stockton and 5. Yuba City - adjacent is Marysville in Yuba county. I'm not too far from the state's worst city to live: Desert Hot Springs (LOL).
Quote from: Desert Man on August 07, 2017, 08:30:41 AM
I can name 5 cities similar to Detroit or headed to become a ruin, they are: 1. Camden NJ, 2. East St Louis MO, 3. Gary IN, 4. New Orleans LA (rising sea level) and 5. Welch WV - the post-coal economy nearly killed that place. For CA, the 5 cities which has the negativity but not total decline like Detroit are 1. El Centro (on the Mexican border), 2. Oakland, 3. San Bernardino, 4. Stockton and 5. Yuba City - adjacent is Marysville in Yuba county. I'm not too far from the state's worst city to live: Desert Hot Springs (LOL).
There seems to be a trend with your first three. Camden, NJ is a suburb of Philadelphia, PA. East St. Louis, IL (not MO) is a suburb of St. Louis, MO. Gary, IN is a suburb of Chicago, IL. All three of these cities are suburbs of a city in a different state. Now I'm wondering if state borders matter.
However, I wouldn't say that a suburb of a larger city would become the next Detroit, especially if the main city is doing fine.
Quote from: 1 on August 07, 2017, 08:35:12 AM
Quote from: Desert Man on August 07, 2017, 08:30:41 AM
I can name 5 cities similar to Detroit or headed to become a ruin, they are: 1. Camden NJ, 2. East St Louis MO, 3. Gary IN, 4. New Orleans LA (rising sea level) and 5. Welch WV - the post-coal economy nearly killed that place. For CA, the 5 cities which has the negativity but not total decline like Detroit are 1. El Centro (on the Mexican border), 2. Oakland, 3. San Bernardino, 4. Stockton and 5. Yuba City - adjacent is Marysville in Yuba county. I'm not too far from the state's worst city to live: Desert Hot Springs (LOL).
There seems to be a trend with your first three. Camden, NJ is a suburb of Philadelphia, PA. East St. Louis, IL (not MO) is a suburb of St. Louis, MO. Gary, IN is a suburb of Chicago, IL. All three of these cities are suburbs of a city in a different state. Now I'm wondering if state borders matter.
However, I wouldn't say that a suburb of a larger city would become the next Detroit, especially if the main city is doing fine.
IMHO, Detroit has already hit bottom and is in the beginning stages of a major rebound. One point that was brought up a few months ago in the TV show 'This Old House', when they focused on two properties in Detroit, is that unlike most other major cities, the vast, vast majority of the properties in Detroit were developed as low-density detached single-family houses, as opposed to other places that were developed with a much higher percentage of the units being in multi-family buildings. When the union autoworker jobs declined (along with many other of the worst things that the mid-20th century foisted on the USA's cities that all hit Detroit in unison), demand for single-family residential in the city tanked.
The other places listed also have already had their declines.
As for places that have not yet had their 'declines', I have no insight on specific places, but IMHO, I can easily see that happening in many 'Sun Belt' cities as their respective cachets fade.
Mike
Twenty years ago, Cincinnati was headed that way, but big cities like that are growing again.
Some mid-sized cities like Erie PA might decay, or maybe even some of the small cities near Cincinnati.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 07, 2017, 08:25:04 AM
In the comments sections within newspapers, nearly every pessimist says that their city will become the next Detroit. Especially over things that had nothing to do with Detroit.
A lot of the people saying that are paid trolls.
Also, strong labor unions are more effective in preventing such a decline.
- Welch, with a max population of 6.6K in a county with a max populartion of 100K was hardly ever a "city" in the sense of the other major cities being discussed.
- I prefer to look at entire metro areas as opposed to cities. A discussion of East St. Louis is really a part of a discussion of St. Louis.
- Leaving aside discussion about the theory of global warming, the Ports of New Orleans, South Louisiana, Plaquemines, and Baton Rouge, together with the Louisiana Off-shore Oil Port, are taken together, the largest port in the world. That will never change. It is the transportation center of North America.
- So what you need to look at are places with things similar to what happened to Detroit. Single industy. Hostile workforce. Unpleasant place to live even when prosperous (weather, crime, demographics, schools, infastructure, costs, etc.) Single party government whose power base are those that refuse to work. Pittsburgh (an inverse mirror of Detroit, with the city doing OK, but the suburbs and hinterland bombed out) is a good candidate, as is Cleveland.
Quote from: Desert Man on August 07, 2017, 08:30:41 AM
I can name 5 cities similar to Detroit or headed to become a ruin, they are: 1. Camden NJ, 2. East St Louis MO, 3. Gary IN, 4. New Orleans LA (rising sea level) and 5. Welch WV - the post-coal economy nearly killed that place. For CA, the 5 cities which has the negativity but not total decline like Detroit are 1. El Centro (on the Mexican border), 2. Oakland, 3. San Bernardino, 4. Stockton and 5. Yuba City - adjacent is Marysville in Yuba county. I'm not too far from the state's worst city to live: Desert Hot Springs (LOL).
Wait I though Oakland would be like an alternate place economically for companies though due to the expensive costs in San Francisco and San Jose. I would have guess Vallejo at first to go on the decline due to the bankruptcy in 2008 though.
Quote from: 1 on August 07, 2017, 07:18:10 AM
My first thought was Chicago, due to the high crime rate, but then I looked at the population numbers, and the population is not decreasing from 2010 to now.
The only parts of Chicago (city proper) growing are the areas around the Loop (aka "Daleyland") and some of the northwest neighborhoods. The south and west sides have good sections of urban prairie. And yes, the population is starting to decrease again based on the latest estimates. Factor in the pension issues, the city government being in full-blown denial of those issues, the increase in shootings (even in "Daleyland"), and the public school issues (again, the pensions), you have a recipe for a big problem.
Chicago is still in danger considering the status of the city and state financial woes, Gary IN is a TBA as they're about to do a major upgrade to their airport. I say a third would be New Orleans
St. Louis. There were tons of abandoned warehouses and factories when I was there last, and they had tons of graffiti all over them. Population is shrinking as well.
Quote from: ET21 on August 07, 2017, 01:23:53 PM
Chicago is still in danger considering the status of the city and state financial woes, Gary IN is a TBA as they're about to do a major upgrade to their airport. I say a third would be New Orleans
And Chicago is where the remake of the 1974 Charles Bronson's Death Wish is set. The remake will star Bruce Willis and seeing how Chicago is going. That movie might be a big wake-up call.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1137450/
Hartford could certainly be on the list. City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system. The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Quote from: jp the roadgeek on August 07, 2017, 02:51:20 PMThe city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Sounds like Illinois currently
Quote from: Desert Man on August 07, 2017, 08:30:41 AM
I can name 5 cities similar to Detroit or headed to become a ruin, they are: 1. Camden NJ,
Detroit was really the next Camden.
Camden went down in flames 40 years ago. Their rebound has consisted of the USS New Jersey, an indoor/outdoor musical entertainment center (now known as the BB&T Pavilion), an aquarium, and a minor league ballpark. In 2000 prior to a national convention in Philly, they made driving thru Camden on US 30 (Admiral Wilson Blvd) more pleasant by knocking down the abandoned buildings and X-rated places and planted grass. 17 years later, that still registers as one of the recent significant efforts to improve Camden!
Quote from: inkyatari on August 07, 2017, 03:03:07 PM
Quote from: jp the roadgeek on August 07, 2017, 02:51:20 PMThe city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Sounds like Illinois currently
Lots of cities are in a same boat - area is not doing good, and inner city is doing much worse since urban model doesn't really work; those who can move to suburb - do move to suburb; and things become even worse. Would be fixable if there were money in the system and surrounding economy was better...
But for now I suspect we need to develop a way a way to retire cities in controlled manner - as opposed to Detroit decay.
Trump was highly criticize over here for saying people from NY should move where jobs are, and leave homes behind. But there is a grain of truth in that...
Quote from: inkyatari on August 07, 2017, 03:03:07 PM
Quote from: jp the roadgeek on August 07, 2017, 02:51:20 PMThe city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Sounds like Illinois currently
Exactly. There is no way in hell that we should be paying for the Chicago Teachers' Pension using education funds that were meant for the rest of the state. The other pensions in this state should model themselves after the only solvent one, the Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund (IMRF) which is 95% funded, and which is funded through both municipal/county founds and employee contributions. The Chicago Teachers' Pension used a shell game where the employees were supposed to pick up 9% of their pension as withholding in their paychecks. The Chicago Public Schools (CPS) opted instead to allow them to contribute only 2% while the CPS picked up the other 7%. This made quite a mess of things later on.
I could see Houston getting hit hard if and when renewable energy takes off and/or there is a major scientific breakthrough in fusion energy. The city is much more dependent on oil than DFW is.
Desert Hot Springs is now CA's worst city - 10 miles north of Palm Springs, the city nick-named "DHS" makes poorer Coachella and my hometown Indio look like paradise, LOL. At the 100-mile arc from Downtown L.A., the state dumped convict felons in lower-priced housing tracts in a desolate economy. Stretching from the Sierra Nevadas (Bakersfield metro area) to Anza-Borrego (San Diego metro area), the 100-mile arc has the state's most terrible cities like Adelanto, Barstow and California City, all in rural desert locations.
Many of the cities mentioned in the previous posts: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo, etc. -- have already experienced huge declines; most coming 1960-1990, when there was a concurrency between flight to the suburbs and loss of major industry. Most of those cities are now at a "plateau" state; it seems like most of those now have a population of around 300K, give or take. That seems to be a sustainable population for what industry is left as well as the localized service base; the areas have adapted to a lower level of economic activity and have adjusted their outlooks to match.
That being said, some will likely do better than others; the Cincinnati-Dayton corridor has become one of the major consumer-product distribution hubs in the eastern U.S.; while such may not translate into revitalization of the "anchor" cities, it does portend reasonably well for the region as a whole -- at least those older cities are less likely to experience any major decline. Medium-size cities with nationally-recognized universities -- and a thriving small-business base (e.g., Lexington, KY) are relatively immune from precipitous declines, even if the prospect of a sudden "boom" is dampened by the region's mode of continuity. It's the isolated city lacking reasonable proximity to others of its type displaying the effects of years of neglect or complacency (sometimes due to the presence of a thriving -- or at least sustaining -- single commercial activity). A recent example is Erie, PA; the GE locomotive plant there -- the largest in the country, is shutting down; a downsized replacement will be built near Fort Worth, TX., a city that, to say the least, is continually growing. This will likely be a huge blow to Erie, long associated with General Electric; this was the last major company facility remaining in the city. Currently a bit over 100K, IMO the population will drop at least 30% by 2025 (some workers and their families will, of course, simply relocate to Texas). But that's the sort of situation facing any singular and limited-function metro area; these had little impetus for adapting to general change but instead carried on, even with marginal declines hard to detect except over significant time periods.
Contributing factors in this?: too many to list in a post like this one -- and most of which will precipitate politicized responses. Let's just say that it's likely any further metro-area stagnation will focus on locations with the characteristics mentioned above. Areas like the Cincinnati-Dayton corridor got lucky -- there were enough regional amenities -- coupled with the connectivity part & parcel of the "anchor" centers -- to render the area attractive for both location of distribution facilities as well as a reasonably attractive place for potential employees to relocate. Other areas not featuring such factors will likely not fare terribly well if and when downturns (or corporate decisions such as with GE and Erie) occur.
Buffalo's metro holding relatively steady at 1.2 million can be linked to the University, hospitals and tourism. Niagara Falls being one of the world's largest tourist attractions keeps the hospitality industry going. UB is relatively-high ranked and pumps a ton of money and jobs into the local economy. Roswell Park Cancer Institute (just north of downtown) is one of the country's top cancer hospitals. That being said, Upstate New York as a whole is shrinking, with only the Albany area seeing any growth.
Fun historical factoid: Roswell Park was the only doctor remotely close to Buffalo who was thought to have been able to save McKinley's life after he was shot, but he was in Niagara Falls performing a surgery and refused to leave the patient in the middle of the procedure, famously saying "don't you see, I can't leave. I am in the middle of a case even if it were for the President of the United States?"
Quote from: jp the roadgeek on August 07, 2017, 02:51:20 PM
Hartford could certainly be on the list. City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system. The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Sounds like the state as a whole.
On a more on-topic note, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre seem to be decaying, as does a lot of the rest of Pennsylvania post-coal boom.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 07, 2017, 11:18:32 AM
Also, strong labor unions are more effective in preventing such a decline.
Umm, Detroit had one of the strongest unions on the planet.
Parts of the Monongahela Valley south of Pittsburgh seem to be fitting the bill these days. Many of these towns and cities (ie McKeesport, Braddock, Homestead, Rankin, Duquesne, Clairton, Donora, Monessen) were centered around the steel industry. When the mills shut down in the 1980s, these cities started to decline because all their eggs were in one basket, so to speak. The populations of these cities significantly declined as a result and continue to decline to the present day.
Here are their declines from their peak populations to the 2010 census...
McKeesport - 55,355 in 1940-> 19,731 in 2010
Braddock - 20,879 in 1920 -> 2,159 in 2010
Homestead - 20,452 in 1920 -> 3,165 in 2010
Rankin - 7,956 in 1930 -> 2,122 in 2010
Duquesne - 21,396 in 1930 -> 5,565 in 2010
Clairton -> 19,652 in 1950 -> 6,796 in 2010
Donora -> 14,131 in 1920 -> 4,781 in 2010
Monessen -> 20,268 in 1930 -> 7,720 in 2010
Quote from: jp the roadgeek on August 07, 2017, 02:51:20 PM
Hartford could certainly be on the list. City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system. The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Not only has it dropped 50,000 in 50 years too.
My dad says the baseball stadium was the final nail in the coffin in the city. Now how are they gonna handle I-84 being re-done
I surprisingly know a few people in Hartford, all of whom moved there after college. I went to college in New England though so that's not terribly surprising.
Quote from: jp the roadgeek on August 07, 2017, 02:51:20 PM
Hartford could certainly be on the list. City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system. The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Hartford has a downtown full of finance and insurance companies offices, as well once boosted a major league sports team: the Hartford (formerly New England) Whalers of the NHL until the 1990s, and their arena the Hartford Civic center is gone. Ironically, CT like NJ is known for upper-income, affluent suburbs facing lower-income, vacated ghettos.
Flint, MI, had a population of nearly 200K in 1960. Today, they're estimated to be below 100K. Nearby Saginaw is suffering the same fate, going from nearly 100K in 1960 to below 50K. Unless someone knows something I don't, I don't see those two cities reviving anytime soon.
Sierra Vista, Arizona has seen a steady decline in population since 2012, as has Farmington, New Mexico. Both have some 40k residents.
Phoenix AZ. Maybe not for 50 years, but at some point the lack of natural water down there is going to hit an extreme point. Plus, there is nothing down there that keeps the city afloat in some unique way (like oil, steel, auto, etc), so no industry is keeping people there. Unlike people fleeing Detroit due to industry leaving, Phoenix could be the first involved with people having to leave because there is not enough resources to support the population. Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.
The upper midwest, with the Great Lakes, could support a population well above what it has now. Per something I read a few years back, Michigan has enough water for 100 million people. The irony is in how many people have fled that area.
Quote from: SectorZ on August 22, 2017, 09:20:12 PM
Phoenix AZ. Maybe not for 50 years, but at some point the lack of natural water down there is going to hit an extreme point. Plus, there is nothing down there that keeps the city afloat in some unique way (like oil, steel, auto, etc), so no industry is keeping people there. Unlike people fleeing Detroit due to industry leaving, Phoenix could be the first involved with people having to leave because there is not enough resources to support the population. Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.
The upper midwest, with the Great Lakes, could support a population well above what it has now. Per something I read a few years back, Michigan has enough water for 100 million people. The irony is in how many people have fled that area.
Is it lead-free water though?
Quote from: tribar on August 22, 2017, 10:31:05 PM
Quote from: SectorZ on August 22, 2017, 09:20:12 PM
Phoenix AZ. Maybe not for 50 years, but at some point the lack of natural water down there is going to hit an extreme point. Plus, there is nothing down there that keeps the city afloat in some unique way (like oil, steel, auto, etc), so no industry is keeping people there. Unlike people fleeing Detroit due to industry leaving, Phoenix could be the first involved with people having to leave because there is not enough resources to support the population. Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.
The upper midwest, with the Great Lakes, could support a population well above what it has now. Per something I read a few years back, Michigan has enough water for 100 million people. The irony is in how many people have fled that area.
Is it lead-free water though?
I think Lake Superior is lead free
Quote from: Desert Man on August 09, 2017, 11:53:02 PM
Quote from: jp the roadgeek on August 07, 2017, 02:51:20 PM
Hartford could certainly be on the list. City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system. The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.
Hartford has a downtown full of finance and insurance companies offices, as well once boosted a major league sports team: the Hartford (formerly New England) Whalers of the NHL until the 1990s, and their arena the Hartford Civic center is gone. Ironically, CT like NJ is known for upper-income, affluent suburbs facing lower-income, vacated ghettos.
The Hartford Civic Center is still there; now known as the XL Center. UConn basketball (and now hockey) play a few home games there, but the AHL's Wolf Pack is last in the AHL in attendance because orphaned Whaler fans see it as an inferior brand of hockey, plus the team is affiliated with the Rangers, whose fans used to invade the arena and make fun of the Whalers and fans for playing in a shopping mall. Like the city, it's outdated, having been built in 1975 and the last major renovation (other than cosmetic) taking place after the roof collapse in 1978. The mall once attached to it is now a mixed use office/apartment building. There were talks of building a new arena, but the price tag in a dying economy is too high.
Another reason Scranton might have seen a small uptick:
The Office :)
Quote from: SectorZ on August 22, 2017, 09:20:12 PM
Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.
There is an issue with Las Vegas too. Not that long ago the only (legal) casinos were in Nevada. Then came Atlantic City, then all the Indians, and then the riverboats, and then just regular casinos in lots of places. Today 31 states have casinos of one sort or another, NOT counting the majority of the rest that have slot machines and/or keno. Unless you live in the Atlantic South you are never more than a couple of hours drive from a casino. There are casinos in plenty of major cites, like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Miami, and soon NYC.
The only legal advantage Nevada has is a Harry Reid era law that allows sports gambling in Nevada but not elsewhere. Obviously unconstitutional (imagine a law that said you could grow oranges in Florida, but not California, or harvest timber in Maine but not Michigan) the Supreme Court will take the matter up this fall. Sports gambling will be legal in every state that wants it by next summer.
Now, Las Vegas has some other things. It is the "adult Disneyland" (but imagine if there were a casino at actual real Disney World, or in any visitable city's downtown, or at any beach or mountain resort). It has been developing as a retirement community. It has some financial and insurance jobs. But, at the end of the day, it remains "a city whose only industry is people bad at math". Losing that uniqueness more and more every day.
Las Vegas still has its reputation as "the" place for not just gambling but all the other associated vices as well. So long as the idea persists that "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" and people don't start applying THAT logic elsewhere, Las Vegas will remain a destination.
A better example of a city threatened by the proliferation of legalized gambling is Atlantic City, NJ. Of course, like some other cities mentioned, it has already seen decline in the past. Atlantic City came to be as a summer getaway destination because it was the easiest place on the coast to get to from Philadelphia. But then the advent of air conditioning reduced the demand for summer getaways centered around escaping the heat, and the proliferation of planes and automobiles made it easier for people from Philadelphia to start vacationing other places further away. With the reason for its existence eroding away, Atlantic City fell apart. Then the state attempted to revive it by legalizing gambling there and trying to turn it into the Las Vegas of the east coast. This produced some positive results, but it never was able to really revive the whole city - outside of the casino/resort area, the rest of town is still a scuzzy ghetto.
Meanwhile Atlantic City was never able to build the reputation Las Vegas has, and both NYC and Philadelphia now have other casinos closer to them - once again, eroding its reason for existence. So it's on the decline again.
Quote from: Duke87 on August 23, 2017, 09:30:09 PM
Las Vegas still has its reputation as "the" place for not just gambling but all the other associated vices as well. So long as the idea persists that "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" and people don't start applying THAT logic elsewhere, Las Vegas will remain a destination.
A better example of a city threatened by the proliferation of legalized gambling is Atlantic City, NJ. Of course, like some other cities mentioned, it has already seen decline in the past. Atlantic City came to be as a summer getaway destination because it was the easiest place on the coast to get to from Philadelphia. But then the advent of air conditioning reduced the demand for summer getaways centered around escaping the heat, and the proliferation of planes and automobiles made it easier for people from Philadelphia to start vacationing other places further away. With the reason for its existence eroding away, Atlantic City fell apart. Then the state attempted to revive it by legalizing gambling there and trying to turn it into the Las Vegas of the east coast. This produced some positive results, but it never was able to really revive the whole city - outside of the casino/resort area, the rest of town is still a scuzzy ghetto.
Meanwhile Atlantic City was never able to build the reputation Las Vegas has, and both NYC and Philadelphia now have other casinos closer to them - once again, eroding its reason for existence. So it's on the decline again.
A Jersey Shore resort that went the same was as Atlantic City was Asbury Park. It was really nice until the 50s.. It went down. But never had casinos.
Now it has become gentrified.. Like many other areas thanks to 'the gays'... Asbury Park is now a summer resort destination once again.
Jersey City and Bayonne were run down in the 1970s byt now because of proximity to Manhattan they have come back.
Prople thought that there was no hopr for tbose cities. Sometimes a place rebounds unexpectledly.
With the NJ cities proximity to NYC helps. I think AC may come back but not for a while. It is sort of far from NYC for day trips but if property values go low enoughr it may be a viable alternative to morr expensive shore resort towns
LGMS428
Stagflations, recessions and regional depressions can happen, they happened and will happen again. In the 1970s, the Northeastern corridor like NYC (Washington DC was "murder capital" in the late 20th century), the 1980s for Miami, FL (the drug trade and Miami Vice TV show) and 1990s for CA (esp. the LA riots and racial strife between White, Black, Latino and Asian communities) were examples. Now in the 2010s, the Midwest's largest cities like Chicago (high crime), St. Louis, Columbus OH ("Killumbus") and so on (not affecting Cleveland, Indianapolis and Milwaukee as much) as the result of declined local economies, while NYC came back in the 1990s, so did Miami and CA (esp. San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego, and even Los Angeles) when they have better, larger and diversified economies. Gentrification in Oakland, Sacramento, Fresno, Bakersfield, Long Beach and Santa Ana in CA are hot issues, but this trend hasn't happened in Stockton, Modesto, Yuba City/Marysville, San Bernardino, Riverside and El Centro/ Imperial/ Calexico. Where I live, Palm Springs has gotten wealthier - the period between 1970 and 1995 was when the city was less frequented by the rich, famous or elderly. And finally, the year 2000 was when major cities nationwide recovered because of the economic boom at the times - but I hope the Midwest's major cities don't end up dead or vacated by 2020 or 2026, depending on local or national economic conditions in the near future.
Quote from: SP Cook on August 23, 2017, 10:32:06 AM
Now, Las Vegas has some other things. It is the "adult Disneyland" (but imagine if there were a casino at actual real Disney World, or in any visitable city's downtown, or at any beach or mountain resort). It has been developing as a retirement community. It has some financial and insurance jobs. But, at the end of the day, it remains "a city whose only industry is people bad at math". Losing that uniqueness more and more every day.
Yes and no. As someone in the casino industry, Las Vegas still has a lot to work with. For one thing, because Vegas was the only game in town for so long, there's a lot of support companies that keep casinos running headquartered there. If you want to run a casino, you need slot machines, chairs, paper, and replacement parts for the slot machines, poker tables, etc. and all of that is made in Vegas. Everi, one of the largest casino check-cashing and credit card cash advance systems (that also has a slot machine division now that they bought out Multimedia Games), is in Vegas.
Even if you're just a customer, Vegas is still a destination because of the sheer density of casinos and the variety of scenery. If you're losing at one you can walk out and try the one literally right next to it. (Yes, which casino you gamble in scarcely matters, but don't expect gamblers to believe that.) Not to mention that if you're a poker player, Vegas is where all the big games are, and there's lots of games going at all hours of the day and night (whereas in Oklahoma if you walk into a casino at off-peak hours, you're pretty much only guaranteed to find $1-$2 no limit hold'em, maybe $2-$5 if you're lucky–it can be hard finding something even something fairly standard like $3-$6 limit or any pot-limit Omaha, and good luck finding a casino that is willing to spread something exotic like Pineapple or Open-Face Chinese Poker). If you're a
good poker player, going to Vegas is even more of a draw because you can sit there and soak up the chips from all the drunk tourists.
You're more likely to see Atlantic City go down than Vegas.
The top 10 worst cities in California (#1 is Desert Hot Springs 10 miles north of Palm Springs). Many of them in Imperial county, Riverside county, and San Bernardino area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0qDHt_9KmM
Not racist, but these places earn a reputation as the "ghetto" - Desert Hot Springs counts as one. And the rural Imperial valley region from my hometown Indio down to Calexico.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d22hvs2OEos
That limo is kinda badass.
Drive across from L.A. to SF: you find Lots of desolate farm towns on I-5 and farther inland parts of the Central Coast (Santa Paula, Santa Maria, San Miguel, Salinas, Hollister and Watsonville) with large low-income and Latino populations, a byproduct of a history of Mexican/Chicano (or should I say, Hispanic and Central American) farm laborers arrive during the harvest seasons. My wife has family history in Santa Clara valley, around San Mateo and Vallejo, she's of Mexican-American and some Filipino plus Italian ancestry.
My own maternal grandfather of Cherokee/Osage and Scottish ancestry came to Kern co. in the 1930s from Oklahoma outside of Tulsa. He with his family of 8 were sharecroppers displaced by the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression. Until the 1970s, he had family in towns of Arvin, Lamont and Weedpatch south of Bakersfield. I'm familiar with towns Lost Hills, Buttonwillow, Shafter, Wasco, McFarland and Delano...they would qualify as the most "ghetto/barrio or redneck/white trash" cities on Youtube's "top worst CA places list".
Phoenix and Vegas are out of water. They are going to experience a dramatic population crash later this century.
According to a Census estimate (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2017/Top%2010%20Largest%20Declining.pdf), the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.
Quote from: Doctor Whom on August 29, 2017, 01:45:00 PM
According to a Census estimate (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2017/Top%2010%20Largest%20Declining.pdf), the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.
Cook County, IL tops the chart....
Quote from: JJBers on August 29, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
Quote from: Doctor Whom on August 29, 2017, 01:45:00 PM
According to a Census estimate (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2017/Top%2010%20Largest%20Declining.pdf), the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.
Cook County, IL tops the chart....
And that's only going to get worse.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/deerfield/news/ct-dfr-soda-sales-cook-county-tl-0831-story.html
Quote from: Brandon on August 29, 2017, 03:29:56 PM
Quote from: JJBers on August 29, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
Quote from: Doctor Whom on August 29, 2017, 01:45:00 PM
According to a Census estimate (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2017/Top%2010%20Largest%20Declining.pdf), the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.
Cook County, IL tops the chart....
And that's only going to get worse.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/deerfield/news/ct-dfr-soda-sales-cook-county-tl-0831-story.html
NOT THE SODA POP!
Quote from: JJBers on August 29, 2017, 05:04:23 PM
Quote from: Brandon on August 29, 2017, 03:29:56 PM
Quote from: JJBers on August 29, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
Quote from: Doctor Whom on August 29, 2017, 01:45:00 PM
According to a Census estimate (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2017/Top%2010%20Largest%20Declining.pdf), the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.
Cook County, IL tops the chart....
And that's only going to get worse.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/deerfield/news/ct-dfr-soda-sales-cook-county-tl-0831-story.html
NOT THE SODA POP!
High taxes, and a high crime rate are the contributing factors. I'll just leave it at that.
10 worst cities in the US - 2 of em in California: Stockton 50 miles east of S.F/Oakland and San Bernardino 50 miles east of L.A./Long Beach. I woulda thought Fresno makes the list, so would infamous places like Desert Hot Springs by Palm Springs, El Centro near Mexicali and Marysville/Yuba City.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtAMsiJIDNY
Quote from: Desert Man on September 01, 2017, 08:20:11 PM
10 worst cities in the US - 2 of em in California: Stockton 50 miles east of S.F/Oakland and San Bernardino 50 miles east of L.A./Long Beach. I woulda thought Fresno makes the list, so would infamous places like Desert Hot Springs by Palm Springs, El Centro near Mexicali and Marysville/Yuba City.
Desert Hot Springs, El Centro, and Marysville are not populous enough. If cities of any size were included, there would be several cities in the same metro areas.