Thought I make this thread for everything tornado/hail-related. We have a severe risk for Saturday and Wednesday.
EDIT: The image URL will always direct to the Storm Prediction Center's daily severe weather outlook, so it will always show the relevant day's chances of severe storms. I'm glad I posted this up top :D
It's go-time for severe weather season! The Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) has just upgraded the threat from enhanced to moderate, for the mid-Ohio valley to the Missouri bootheel and the Memphis area. Widespread severe weather is expected, especially damaging winds, and there's also a significant chance of tornadoes.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Fday1otlk_1630.gif&hash=9460c8f50e92d4f787d0a7a1b995b0d64a6763e5)
It is indeed the time of year for severe weather. :paranoid: :camera:
I wonder if this storm system is heading towards my neck of the woods (northwest Georgia). However, I will be in the lowcountry of South Carolina in a couple of days, so it's possible it may not affect me in the same way than if I wasn't going out of town at the end of this week.
In their area, does anyone else want more severe weather?
LG-TP260
Quote from: Hurricane Rex on April 04, 2018, 01:23:44 AM
In their area, does anyone else want more severe weather?
LG-TP260
I always do. I was in the MDT area yesterday, got northing, but was under a severe thunderstorm warning TWICE, the first such occurrence in a same day for Indy.
The slight risk for eastern NC for today is beginning to look like much adieu about nothing. The we never got the clear skies here in New Bern that was needed to really get things going. Latest word from SPC is that a severe watch is unlikely (only 20% chance).
Where I am (northwest Georgia), there did end up being some strong thunderstorms for a very brief amount of time last night (from 1 to 2 AM, IIRC). There was some very strong winds and rain as well, I think. It didn't last long at all, and thankfully, I don't think it really caused too many (if any) damages in my town (Dalton, GA).
Sustained 60 mph winds today, with snow showers.
Take a look at the Rochester area right now on Google Maps (with traffic turned on). Road closures everywhere due to fallen trees. No power at home as we speak :banghead: :coffee:
Enhanced risk tomorrow.
MDT risk today... oh god...
Severe weather moving through Arkansas today! Fort Smith was under a Tornado Warning until 4:15 CST. There are still storms moving (s)west to (n)east. Another round looks like it is headed for Fort Smith and the NAW area. Mountainburg, AR already had a tornado touch down.
State of Emergency for Danville, VA after a long tracked wedge tornado that started in Greensboro tore through the western part of the city. This system also went to produce another tornado near Lynchburg.
Quote from: paulthemapguy on April 03, 2018, 12:55:22 PM
EDIT: The image URL will always direct to the Storm Prediction Center's daily severe weather outlook, so it will always show the relevant day's chances of severe storms. I'm glad I posted this up top :D
It's go-time for severe weather season! The Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) has just upgraded the threat from enhanced to moderate, for the mid-Ohio valley to the Missouri bootheel and the Memphis area. Widespread severe weather is expected, especially damaging winds, and there's also a significant chance of tornadoes.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Fday1otlk_1630.gif&hash=9460c8f50e92d4f787d0a7a1b995b0d64a6763e5)
Thanks for posting this. I have it bookmarked.
3 feet of rain in Hawaii on one day on Saturday.
LG-TP260
Long term severe weather outbreak expected starting today.
I love severe weather. I just hope it doesn't continue into Saturday, because I'm planning on taking a road trip that day and any rain would ruin that. I mean, who wants to take pictures standing outside in the rain?
Oh my - moderate risk tonight. SPC was supposed to update tomorrow's risk area 15 minutes ago.
And tomorrow. Might even happen Thursday as well
Well THIS is unusual.
SPC has an enhanced threat of severe storms over...Vermont and upstate New York? Last I checked there was nothing more than a marginal risk slated for that region. (see the second post for image) Storm Prediction Center Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
Just checked the SPC archives... and I saw this.
(https://vgy.me/YY8Hzu.png)
I have never seen a MOD risk in the Northeast before. This is from earlier today.
EDIT: Apparently this was already written. Thanks @paulthemapguy!
UPDATE!
A MOD risk for severe weather has just been sent out by the SPC for parts of Northern New Jersey, Southern Upstate New York, Southwestern Massachusetts, Northwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern Pennsylvania. They're also predicting a 60% severe wind threat, one of the first I've seen in a while.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Fday1probotlk_1630_wind.gif%3F1526410007244&hash=67a985b3669d70587664fbcf1b4fb890971d3a6e)
Quote from: TBKS1 on May 15, 2018, 02:47:27 PM
UPDATE!
A MOD risk for severe weather has just been sent out by the SPC for parts of Northern New Jersey, Southern Upstate New York, Southwestern Massachusetts, Northwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern Pennsylvania. They're also predicting a 60% severe wind threat, one of the first I've seen in a while.
I was surprised to see the 60% wind risk. Given the atmospheric conditions, it makes sense, but it's just so rare! Being the weather nerd I am, I'm jealous of my family that lives in SW Massachusetts.
Northeast gonna get creamed today lol
Nothing happened here except for some rain.
Minor thunderstorm here.
Look at the area of severe weather risk from yesterday. Areas from south central Mass to northeast Pennsylvania are just COATED in blue dots, showing reports of damaging winds. Tons of reports from "downstate" New York and Connecticut.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fclimo%2Freports%2F180515_rpts_filtered.gif&hash=254e753195ca0bc3aeb06910797a7719a4660161)
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 12:18:21 PM
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
Quote from: 1 on May 16, 2018, 12:36:09 PM
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
Agreed. It'd also help reduce the "boy who cried wolf" effect.
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 02:44:53 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 16, 2018, 12:36:09 PM
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
Agreed. It'd also help reduce the "boy who cried wolf" effect.
The NWS has taken notice of this in the last few years. They have stated that they're trying to limit the area covered by a tornado warning as much as possible to prevent false alarms, for one thing. There may be some further changes to protocol coming soon.
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 12:18:21 PM
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
Looks like the NWS updated the storm report to 3 tornadoes.
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 16, 2018, 04:52:08 PM
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Actually, there are PDS Tornado Warnings, which act as the second highest level of tornado warning, right below the tornado emergency. PDS warnings are issued when there is a confirmed tornado on the ground with a considerable damage threat. Tornado emergencies are the highest level, reserved for when confirmed dangerous tornadoes hit densely populated areas and are expected to cause catastrophic damage and/or many fatalities.
Quote from: US 89 on May 17, 2018, 01:00:13 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 16, 2018, 04:52:08 PM
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Actually, there are PDS Tornado Warnings, which act as the second highest level of tornado warning, right below the tornado emergency. PDS warnings are issued when there is a confirmed tornado on the ground with a considerable damage threat. Tornado emergencies are the highest level, reserved for when confirmed dangerous tornadoes hit densely populated areas and are expected to cause catastrophic damage and/or many fatalities.
I've rarely seen PDS warnings, it's always regular or tornado emergency warnings
Quote from: ET21 on May 17, 2018, 08:47:26 AM
Quote from: US 89 on May 17, 2018, 01:00:13 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 16, 2018, 04:52:08 PM
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Actually, there are PDS Tornado Warnings, which act as the second highest level of tornado warning, right below the tornado emergency. PDS warnings are issued when there is a confirmed tornado on the ground with a considerable damage threat. Tornado emergencies are the highest level, reserved for when confirmed dangerous tornadoes hit densely populated areas and are expected to cause catastrophic damage and/or many fatalities.
I've rarely seen PDS warnings, it's always regular or tornado emergency warnings
I've never seen a PDS warning, only a PDS Watch. The March 2012 Southern Indiana tornado outbreak came with a PDS watch and a Tornado Emergency Warning.
Quote from: 1 on May 16, 2018, 12:36:09 PM
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 12:18:21 PM
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
I mentioned this in another thread but the "original definition", as you call it, was never fully done away with.
Rather, they added the "radar indicated" option, as the new technology of radar can detect debris in the air after a tornado has occurred. This is particularly helpful at night when tornadoes are difficult to visually spot, or in situations where a tornado may be rain wrapped.
To address another point in this thread, as noted, "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings ARE indeed issued by NWS offices. This is done for tornadoes that are doing significant damage, but the situation does not rise to the levels warranting a Tornado Emergency, which is still an accepted type of enhanced warning.
The bottom line: ANY tornado can be life threatening -- so the distinction between a PDS, a Tornado Emergency, and a "normal" tornado warning should be irrelevant to your safety -- seek shelter immediately for any tornado warning.
Here is a prime example of a situation where such technology helps identify a tornado. This particular storm was in Pickens County, Alabama on February 2, 2016 and had a PDS Tornado Warning issued for it two minutes prior to the time I snapped this photo.
The top right panel shows correlation coefficient, which measures how similarly both the horizontal and vertical radar pulses are behaving. The area of blue in the middle of all that yellow indicates negative values, meaning something other than rain is being seen -- which in this case was a non-meteorological (i.e. debris) target. This was co-located with both the velocity couplet (both left side panels) and the highest reflectivity (bottom right). A tornado did touch down from this and was confirmed by spotters -- but it did not remain down and indeed, the follow-up statement was for "radar indicated rotation".
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FOwhSIEG.jpg&hash=943f9836daad71935b8136c9ed5099856a0fbe8d) (http://imgur.com/OwhSIEG)
Twin tornado supercell yesterday across Iowa, with Marshalltown getting a direct hit. Early indications of EF3 damage
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Another big day today.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm2.staticflickr.com%2F1783%2F43529221771_a830f32551_b.jpg&hash=201b5a3e1b8de77c314bf8265f0a71f4c45cf9b3)
Quote from: adwerkema on July 20, 2018, 10:36:37 AM
Another big day today.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm2.staticflickr.com%2F1783%2F43529221771_a830f32551_b.jpg&hash=201b5a3e1b8de77c314bf8265f0a71f4c45cf9b3)
We had heavy storms last night. Power appears to have "blinked", but I slept through it until I had to reset my clocks this morning
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 11:07:27 AM
Quote from: adwerkema on July 20, 2018, 10:36:37 AM
Another big day today.
We had heavy storms last night. Power appears to have "blinked", but I slept through it until I had to reset my clocks this morning
Clocks are always a good indicator of a power outage :-D
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 09:05:44 AM
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Not good for a company that already had a very questionable history of safety.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 20, 2018, 12:10:52 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 09:05:44 AM
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Not good for a company that already had a very questionable history of safety.
17 fatalities, 14 injured. Latest update 10:50 am
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 12:18:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 20, 2018, 12:10:52 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 09:05:44 AM
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Not good for a company that already had a very questionable history of safety.
17 fatalities, 14 injured. Latest update 10:50 am
The sad part is that there was plenty of warning that bad weather was possible. A severe thunderstorm watch had been in effect for most of the day, and a severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 6:32 pm, 30 minutes before the incident happened.
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2018, 08:12:20 AM
Twin tornado supercell yesterday across Iowa, with Marshalltown getting a direct hit. Early indications of EF3 damage
NWS gave it a preliminary EF3 damage rating
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on July 20, 2018, 09:43:22 PM
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2018, 08:12:20 AM
Twin tornado supercell yesterday across Iowa, with Marshalltown getting a direct hit. Early indications of EF3 damage
NWS gave it a preliminary EF3 damage rating
I guessed it would be an EF3 too based on pictures posted to twitter. I saw the aftermath of an EF3 that hit Coal City, IL, a few years ago, and the damage in Marshalltown looked to be the same caliber.
https://www.weather.gov/dmx/20180719_Tornadoes
Two EF3s and an EF2
An EF-3 tornado hit Virginia Beach, VA on Sunday, which was the city's first EF-3 on record. VA Beach also declared a local state of emergency.
Enhanced risk area for most of Oklahoma and south Kansas. Thunderstorms firing off around Lawton. I've seen this movie before, have you?
I see that part of the Storm King Highway was washed out due to the Upstate New York flooding.
I always wanted to put that road on my bucket list.
Quote from: D-Dey65 on July 10, 2023, 01:53:38 PM
I see that part of the Storm King Highway was washed out due to the Upstate New York flooding.
I always wanted to put that road on my bucket list.
I walked it in the off-season.
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 11, 2023, 06:41:41 PM
Enhanced risk area for most of Oklahoma and south Kansas. Thunderstorms firing off around Lawton. I've seen this movie before, have you?
'
Anybody else think that the 'Enhanced' and 'Moderate' labels should be flip-flopped? Enhanced sounds more serious than Moderate.
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on July 10, 2023, 02:19:05 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 11, 2023, 06:41:41 PM
Enhanced risk area for most of Oklahoma and south Kansas. Thunderstorms firing off around Lawton. I've seen this movie before, have you?
Anybody else think that the 'Enhanced' and 'Moderate' labels should be flip-flopped? Enhanced sounds more serious than Moderate.
That's because the scale was originally SLGT-MDT-HIGH. ENH and Marginal (MRGL) were added later on.
I'm personally used to it enough, it would be weird if it changed at this point.
ENH helped bridge the gap between slight and moderate risks while MGL replaced the see text on outlooks prior to the update
Western Montana received quite a dump of rain these last three days starting with what looked like a 13 hour stretch of moderate showers in spurts of about 20 minutes at a time on Monday. I saw another burst of moderate rain at about 6 PM MDT on Tuesday, then another at 5:30 AM MDT this Wednesday morning before it cleared by 10 AM MDT. It still doesn't erase the severe drought conditions however, but it does slowly help break off any long form drought. These spurts of moderate to sometimes heavy rain in many areas were mainly coming from the remnants of former Tropical Storm Hilary. While it does help tap down some of the wildfires in my home state, there are still mud slide and flooding issues at hand in multiple areas including burn scars where lightning struck fires have occurred.
https://apnews.com/article/derna-libya-floods-storm-daniel-95379b164871d97fb74b1cd1bcb5640c
Libya hit with floods and Thousands are reported dead.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/more-than-1000-bodies-recovered-libyan-city-after-floods-minister-2023-09-12/
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/huge-death-toll-libyan-storm-expected-climb-2023-09-13/
Here is more on the Libyan floods.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/they-knew-fury-libyans-that-warnings-went-unheeded-before-flood-2023-09-15/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/they-knew-fury-libyans-that-warnings-went-unheeded-before-flood-2023-09-15/)
Here is more on the Libya Floods and the lead up to the event.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66838559
More fallout from the Libyan floods.
https://abc7ny.com/weather-nyc-storm-preparations-flash-flooding/13840658/
https://abc7ny.com/nj-weather-new-jersey-rain-flooding/13845479/
Flood Reported in the New York Area.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/07/flooding-southern-california-deaths-mudslides
Mudslides reported all over the LA area.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/los-angeles-fire-chief-crews-responded-307-mudslides-106993395
Our first ever February tornado in Wisconsin wrecked some homes and farms near Evansville last night. No fatalities or serious injuries, fortunately.
The supercell tracked from just east of Monroe to just north of Edgerton:
(https://www.weather.gov/images/mkx/top-news/2024/mrms.png)
It would have been at its worst when it crossed WI 59 and the Dane-Rock county line.
NWS is out assessing damage, but to my amateur eye, it looks like at least EF2 based on photos I've seen.
Last weekend was my first "car in the garage" night of the year. Nothing came of it and likely won't have another one of those until late March (I hope).
Nebraska hit with tornadoes.
https://www.wowt.com/2024/04/27/live-updates-tornado-survivors-around-omaha-metro-take-stock-move-forward-aftermath/
Quote from: bing101 on April 27, 2024, 04:45:24 PMNebraska hit with tornadoes.
https://www.wowt.com/2024/04/27/live-updates-tornado-survivors-around-omaha-metro-take-stock-move-forward-aftermath/
Wild seeing clips of those massive tornadoes in Lincoln and Omaha.
https://www.spokanepublicradio.org/2024-04-29/4-people-died-and-hundreds-injured-when-tornadoes-spun-across-oklahoma
Here are some of the reports from the Oklahoma tornadoes.
A rare high risk issued for today.
A live stream I recommend is https://www.youtube.com/@RyanHallYall
He does a great job at keeping people informed of impending danger.
(https://i.imgur.com/fB0tX0K.jpeg)
(https://64.media.tumblr.com/2e3a58aa694cdfb921ea96be019d9226/f0241490d6bb0752-96/s500x750/7d5ba790b21961625b1528e11303a7973776c22a.gifv)
(https://64.media.tumblr.com/3367ca3e72cf7ad01a0eba5dfe792a19/f0241490d6bb0752-d2/s540x810/d6cb99937a05b84e4bd4a8c20c5e66dcfb82a4d9.gifv)
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on May 06, 2024, 09:41:10 AMA live stream I recommend is https://www.youtube.com/@RyanHallYall
He does a great job at keeping people informed of impending danger.
He also runs the non-profit "The Y'all Squad", which utilizes storm chasers in the area to bring rapid relief to those affected by storms like the one that unfortunately struck Barnsdall and Bartlesville, Oklahoma not too long ago... God bless them.
OKC area got some 70 mph winds. Here's what those do to an Eagle signal head.
(https://i.imgur.com/fkPlbvu.png)
No matter what happens in OKC, OK-3 ends up being there too.
(https://i.imgur.com/eE2GiZG.png)
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/article/were-houston-wind-storms-really-tornadoes-19463928.php
https://www.khou.com/article/weather/severe-weather/tree-kills-mother-east-end-houston-storm-deaths/285-4fb799cf-4524-4f91-96cf-23eb9088e1b8
Here are storm's hitting the Houston area.
https://youtu.be/b7DD2eTKgdE
Tornado 15, Wind Turbine farm 0. (Southwestern Iowa)
Approaching 24 hours of no power and it looks like it's gonna be at least 24 more. If straight line winds of barely EF0 force triggered the apocalypse, I don't want to know what happens when Madison gets hit by an actual tornado.
So how would the experts rank this particular May for U.S. tornadoes in terms of volatility compared to years past? I'm having trouble thinking of many parts of the Midwest that have been spared.
Quote from: epzik8 on May 23, 2024, 08:36:45 PMSo how would the experts rank this particular May for U.S. tornadoes in terms of volatility compared to years past? I'm having trouble thinking of many parts of the Midwest that have been spared.
Most of MN - north of the Twin Cities.
North Texas has been spared the tornadoes but we've gotten a fair share of hail and straight-line wind damage. Plus a lot of rain and some flooding. The rain could end up biting us in the summer when it gets dry and all that excess vegetation provides fuel.
Looks like another high risk day of tornadoes across Oklahoma inbound tomorrow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/landslide-remote-papua-new-guinea-village-kills-about-100-abc-says-2024-05-24/
100 people reported dead in a mud slide in Papua New Guinea.
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2024-O-NEW-KFWD-TO-A-0308/USCOMP-N0Q-202405252025 - Tornado watch
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2024-O-NEW-KFWD-TO-W-0051/USCOMP-N0Q-202405260400 - Tornado warning for the northern part of my county
I'm at the southern county line, so I should be safe.
Quote from: ZLoth on May 26, 2024, 12:08:42 AMhttps://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2024-O-NEW-KFWD-TO-A-0308/USCOMP-N0Q-202405252025 - Tornado watch
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2024-O-NEW-KFWD-TO-W-0051/USCOMP-N0Q-202405260400 - Tornado warning for the northern part of my county
I'm at the southern county line, so I should be safe.
From my perspective, this ended up being "nothing" as no high winds and no rain during this episode. I did lose power as part of the high wind warning (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2024-O-NEW-KFWD-HW-W-0002/USCOMP-N0Q-202405261045) which caused widespread power failures this morning.
But, like I said, this was a "nothing" for me. Over in Valley View, TX which is northwest of me on I-35, there was a direct tornado hit.
The NWS Fort Worth (https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth) has yet to release their damage assessment as of this morning.
Some locations West of Lawton have had really bad weather this past week. There was an impressive tornado that struck near the small towns of Duke and Gould. Bigger than baseball size hail was reported. That was on a day where only a "slight" risk of severe weather was forecast. Yesterday didn't turn out as bad for SW OK (Thank God). It seems like the worst of it went South, hitting towns like Archer City in Texas. Lawton barely got more than a tenth of an inch of rain. That's fine by me. I don't want a repeat of June 15 weather from last year. That hail was insane.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/papua-new-guinea-continue-rescue-efforts-after-hundreds-feared-killed-landslide-2024-05-26/
Here is more on the landslide in Papua New Guinea.
QuoteSYDNEY, May 27 (Reuters) - Papua New Guinea's massive landslide three days ago buried more than 2,000 people, the government said on Monday, as treacherous terrain impeded aid and lowered hopes of finding survivors. The National Disaster Centre gave the new number in a letter to the U.N., which had put possible deaths at more than 670. The variance reflects the remote site and the difficulty in getting an accurate population estimate. The Pacific island nation's last credible census was in 2000 and many people live in isolated mountain villages. Defence Minister Billy Joseph said 4,000 people had been living in the six remote villages in the Maip-Mulitaka area in Enga province, where the landslide occurred in the early hours of Frida
Quote from: thspfc on May 22, 2024, 06:42:47 PMApproaching 24 hours of no power and it looks like it's gonna be at least 24 more. If straight line winds of barely EF0 force triggered the apocalypse, I don't want to know what happens when Madison gets hit by an actual tornado.
Don't feel bad, we lost power a couple Saturdays ago, all due to a fallen tree. Duke restored it within 10 minutes. :clap:
But! We've seen far worse, like Florence, that hit our area in September 2018, and only lost power for TWO days! Yes, TWO days! We had to blow up our air mattress due to it being being stuffy in the house.
US death toll from extreme weather over the weekend rises to 36 - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tornadoes-strike-us-south-leaving-three-dead-amid-rising-risk-2025-03-15/
https://www.yahoo.com/news/least-4-tornadoes-hit-chicagoland-235116499.html
Here are some of the Tornadoes hitting the Chicago area.
NY had a string of tornado warnings today. Not sure if anything actually touched down.
Quote from: Rothman on March 16, 2025, 10:47:05 PMNY had a string of tornado warnings today. Not sure if anything actually touched down.
NY used to not having touchdowns.
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on March 17, 2025, 07:17:40 AMQuote from: Rothman on March 16, 2025, 10:47:05 PMNY had a string of tornado warnings today. Not sure if anything actually touched down.
NY used to not having touchdowns.
No, that's New Jersey :sombrero:
I'm not sure why we're not getting tornado warnings here if upstate New York got them yesterday. Massachusetts weather (at least northeastern Massachusetts where I am) is typically 24 hours after Buffalo/Rochester and 12 hours after Albany. This is accurate for the heavy rain and the temperature, but we've somehow been spared from tornadoes.
Quote from: hotdogPi on March 17, 2025, 07:45:05 AMI'm not sure why we're not getting tornado warnings here if upstate New York got them yesterday. Massachusetts weather (at least northeastern Massachusetts where I am) is typically 24 hours after Buffalo/Rochester and 12 hours after Albany. This is accurate for the heavy rain and the temperature, but we've somehow been spared from tornadoes.
The weather experts can weigh in with a more technical explanation, but my understanding is that tornadoes are just less common near the coasts and more common the further inland you go.
Yesterday's storm also had strong south winds, rather than the more typical west winds, which means two things:
(1) it was moving in more of a north/northeast direction rather than due east towards MA
(2) it reached upstate NY *without* passing over the Great Lakes first, which is atypical, but also would have increased the chances of tornado formation here because it was moving over land.
Quote from: hotdogPi on March 17, 2025, 07:45:05 AMI'm not sure why we're not getting tornado warnings here if upstate New York got them yesterday. Massachusetts weather (at least northeastern Massachusetts where I am) is typically 24 hours after Buffalo/Rochester and 12 hours after Albany. This is accurate for the heavy rain and the temperature, but we've somehow been spared from tornadoes.
Tornadogenesis requires a very specific set of conditions in place to happen. Even if a tornadic storm system is strong enough to hold itself together, you won't get tornadoes if it moves into an area that does not have conditions favorable for them.
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/texas/2025/07/07/525872/more-than-100-people-died-in-texas-historic-floods-here-are-some-of-their-stories/
100 people found dead from the Texas Floods.
Flash flooding in New Mexico resort town traps dozens in homes and vehicles - https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/flash-flooding-new-mexico-resort-town-traps-dozens-homes-vehicles-2025-07-09/
Recent rains from a tropical storm caused massive flooding in the town of Tamazunchale, San Luis Potosà (https://maps.app.goo.gl/BzJqVdBhhTDTkm286), to the tune of 1.6 meters. I've seen YouTube video footage of SUVs floating down the street, residents wading hip-deep through town, and a resident pointing shoulder-high to the high water mark in his garage. At least one house had children trapped inside, but many others took refuge in the second story or on the roof because the first floor was a meter deep in water. 400 buildings affected, plus fifteen vehicles. 200 families lost everything they own, including documents and furniture and money and food. There has already been talk of a class action lawsuit against the ex-mayor, who had been overseeing a construction project in one of the neighborhoods, because people are claiming that the construction materials and buildings in the riverbed impeded the flow of the river and contributed to its breaching the bank.
We're definitely seeing a massive increase in weather systems that are very slow moving and sometimes even stationary.
A spot near the United Center in Chicago measured over 5 inches of rain in 90 minutes last night.
Even a relatively strong tornado in Nebraska stayed on the ground but nearly stationary for several minutes last month.
Hot dry high pressure systems are also taking longer to move out.
https://www.kron4.com/top-stories/ap-top-headlines/ap-hundreds-gather-at-high-school-stadium-to-honor-the-many-lost-to-texas-deadly-floods/
The death toll in the Texas Floods is updated to 170.