A place to discuss road closures, accidents, interstates in unidirectional mode and other road events around Hurricane Dorian.
It's going to smash into West Palm Beach and most of southern Florida. I hope everyone is ok there.
A heads up for those driving through Florida for the next week, FDOT shuts off and lowers the light fixtures on all of the exit ramps when under a hurricane threat.
This means most (but not all) major ramps and intersections will be unlit while Dorian is in the area.
Due to such a large amount of road construction throughout the state, contractors are responsible to properly tie down or remove any unnecessary equipment.
But it also means (especially around Orlando on I-4) you may see large washouts or mudslides where a work site has collapsed or a retaining wall has failed.
Be aware that you could drive into a sudden mudwash and lose control.
This is probably going to be worse than Florence! I'm sure I-4 and I-95 would all be one way traffic for northbound evacuation. People there should start buying water and food there now! Just for safety reasons. It's not good to wait last minute because that would leave you with nothing.
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on August 30, 2019, 04:14:17 PM
This is probably going to be worse than Florence! I'm sure I-4 and I-95 would all be one way traffic for northbound evacuation. People there should start buying water and food there now! Just for safety reasons. It's not good to wait last minute because that would leave you with nothing.
You were saying?
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48649508371_30b908d141_z.jpg)
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
Yawn.
Quote from: edwaleni on August 30, 2019, 04:37:10 PM
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on August 30, 2019, 04:14:17 PM
This is probably going to be worse than Florence! I'm sure I-4 and I-95 would all be one way traffic for northbound evacuation. People there should start buying water and food there now! Just for safety reasons. It's not good to wait last minute because that would leave you with nothing.
You were saying?
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48649508371_30b908d141_z.jpg)
Yes.
Since it's Florida we're talking about here, there will be at least one person out there riding the waves.
The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were when they originally predicted the storm would be a Cat 1 over Puerto Rico then downgrade to a tropical storm before hitting Florida. The storm missed the islands and greatly intensified, reducing the preparation time for those in its path.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 30, 2019, 09:05:44 PM
The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were when they originally predicted the storm would be a Cat 1 over Puerto Rico then downgrade to a tropical storm before hitting Florida. The storm missed the islands and greatly intensified, reducing the preparation time for those in its path.
We hope that it's not as bad as Irma or Matthew...
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Unlike a tornado or earthquake, usually you do have several days to evacuate. If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 30, 2019, 11:24:30 PM
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Unlike a tornado or earthquake, usually you do have several days to evacuate. If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.
The worst part is when you're the one who can't evacuate because you're in charge of the recovery effort. Sitting through one of those hurricanes is completely miserable and feels like you're next to a freight line for hours. I'd much rather go through dozens of earthquakes over a hurricane again. One of the biggest perks about moving back west is that worrying about hurricanes isn't a thing.
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on August 30, 2019, 04:11:33 PM
It's going to smash into West Palm Beach and most of southern Florida. I hope everyone is ok there.
That's not a given.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 30, 2019, 09:05:44 PM
The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were
Not this shit again. :banghead:
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 30, 2019, 11:24:30 PM
If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.
Or because they couldn't afford to/had no means to evacuate. It's not nearly as simple as you think.
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on August 31, 2019, 04:04:40 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 30, 2019, 09:05:44 PM
The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were
Not this shit again. :banghead:
Don't hurt yourself banging your head. Instead, direct your energy to telling forecasters to, you know, FORECAST PROPERLY!
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 30, 2019, 11:24:30 PM
If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on August 31, 2019, 04:04:40 AM
Or because they couldn't afford to/had no means to evacuate. It's not nearly as simple as you think.
Nearly every town/county has an evacuation center. If someone wanted to evacuate, there's some way for them to do so. Florida is well prepared to assist anyone who wants assistance for a hurricane.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 31, 2019, 07:29:53 AM
Don't hurt yourself banging your head. Instead, direct your energy to telling forecasters to, you know, FORECAST PROPERLY!
They do.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/03/21/why-people-think-weather-forecasts-are-bad-when-they-are-actually-pretty-good/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/02/how-meteorologists-compare-to-other-professions-that-predict-the-future/
Unfortunately, I can't help you understand that, since you either can't or won't.
The problem I have with this defense of forecasters is that it amounts to claiming that the meteorologists are always being right in a sense. I still find it stretching the actual analysis that they do.
Sure, they deal with probabilities, but to just dismiss it when their forecasts are wrong as "well, they never said it was 100% certain" is far too forgiving. When you put out your best estimate and it doesn't pan out, your best estimate was still wrong. Hiding behind the probability argument is inappropriate given the way meteorologists present their forecasts to the public -- and I am not referring Weather Channel-ish schlock and hype, either. When their forecast is wrong, it is wrong.
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on August 31, 2019, 08:33:47 AM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 31, 2019, 07:29:53 AM
Don't hurt yourself banging your head. Instead, direct your energy to telling forecasters to, you know, FORECAST PROPERLY!
They do.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/03/21/why-people-think-weather-forecasts-are-bad-when-they-are-actually-pretty-good/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/02/how-meteorologists-compare-to-other-professions-that-predict-the-future/
Unfortunately, I can't help you understand that, since you either can't or won't.
I'm a little confused. I'm not sure why you would post articles that, once you get away from flashy, clickbait type headlines, seem to agree with my statements more than yours.
Both articles aren't much more than links to other websites that are simply opinion and blog based websites.
The first link includes a quote from a meteorologist that says, inherently, forecasts are always going to be wrong!
Both sites include graphs that show that hurricane forecasts are almost always wrong; but they're not as wrong as they were upwards of 50 years ago.
Also, there was this passage:
Quote
Ok, let's get back to the comparison of meteorologists to other professions that predict the future. The website The Mathematical Investor posed the question, "How accurate are market forecasters?" Based on analysis of 68 market forecasters, they concluded:
The top-ranking forecaster was 78.7% accurate by our metric. The next three had 72.5%, 71.8% and 70.5% accuracy scores. A total of 11 of the 68 had accuracy scores exceeding 60%. At the other end of our ranking, two had accuracy scores near 17%; three others had scores 25% or lower. A total of 18 had accuracy scores less than 40%.
A study out of Hamilton College analyzed the accuracy of political pundits. In their analysis of 26 political experts, they considered over 472 predictions made over a 16-month period on Sunday talk shows. The results, summarized in a press release, confirmed that
only nine of the prognosticators they studied could predict more accurately than a coin flip. Two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were not statistically any better or worse than a coin flip.
Meteorologists are able to predict, with up to 90% or more accuracy within 2 to 5 days, how a complex fluid on a rotating planet with oceans, mountains, and varying heat distributions changes. Kudos colleagues.
Based on that, the absolute best weather forecaster was wrong 22% of the time. Note the line also says "BY OUR METRIC". What is that metric? Wrong 24 hours in advance? Wrong 48 hours in advance? Wrong 30 minutes in advance?
Only 11 out of 68 were correct 60% of the time...and that includes a variation of +/- 2 degrees. Yet, 18 were current less than 40% of the time. Now, I'm not the world's greatest math wiz, but it is approaching twice as likely that a weather forecasters will be wrong 6 out of 10 times, rather than being right 6 out of ten times.
Yet, when they compare political pundits, they stated that 9 were better than average and 2 were significantly worse than average, which, again, not being a math wiz here, says that political pundits were 450% more likely to get it right than wrong much of the time.
Honestly, if they were right 95% of the time, guess what - those that are suddenly in the path of Dorian that weren't a day before doesn't give a shit about how a weather forecaster predicted Hurricane Katrina correctly, because they're focused on their life being at stake due to Hurricane Dorian. Their job is to get it right 100% of the time, because peoples lives are at stake. If a political pundit gets it wrong, then what...someone doesn't get a tax break they wanted?
Regarding hurricanes, that's what the uncertainty cone is for. (If it's outside the cone, that's the model's fault, not the reporter's fault.)
For chance of rain/snow, 80% chance means it happens 80% of the time. If 80% chances happen significantly less than 80% of the time (even 75% over a long period of time is enough), something's wrong, but I don't think that this is the case.
For temperature, I think that they should display something like "78±3" instead of just "78".
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 31, 2019, 09:09:46 AM
Quote
Ok, let's get back to the comparison of meteorologists to other professions that predict the future. The website The Mathematical Investor posed the question, "How accurate are market forecasters?" Based on analysis of 68 market forecasters, they concluded:
The top-ranking forecaster was 78.7% accurate by our metric. The next three had 72.5%, 71.8% and 70.5% accuracy scores. A total of 11 of the 68 had accuracy scores exceeding 60%. At the other end of our ranking, two had accuracy scores near 17%; three others had scores 25% or lower. A total of 18 had accuracy scores less than 40%.
A study out of Hamilton College analyzed the accuracy of political pundits. In their analysis of 26 political experts, they considered over 472 predictions made over a 16-month period on Sunday talk shows. The results, summarized in a press release, confirmed that
only nine of the prognosticators they studied could predict more accurately than a coin flip. Two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were not statistically any better or worse than a coin flip.
Meteorologists are able to predict, with up to 90% or more accuracy within 2 to 5 days, how a complex fluid on a rotating planet with oceans, mountains, and varying heat distributions changes. Kudos colleagues.
Based on that, the absolute best weather forecaster was wrong 22% of the time. Note the line also says "BY OUR METRIC". What is that metric? Wrong 24 hours in advance? Wrong 48 hours in advance? Wrong 30 minutes in advance?
Only 11 out of 68 were correct 60% of the time...and that includes a variation of +/- 2 degrees. Yet, 18 were current less than 40% of the time. Now, I'm not the world's greatest math wiz, but it is approaching twice as likely that a weather forecasters will be wrong 6 out of 10 times, rather than being right 6 out of ten times.
That quote was about financial market predictors, not meteorologists.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 31, 2019, 09:09:46 AM
The first link includes a quote from a meteorologist that says, inherently, forecasts are always going to be wrong!
And they are, because the atmosphere is a dynamic, ever-changing system with many, many variables. You have to pick a point at which to stop, analyze the variables at that moment, and make a prediction. Because of that fact, there is an inherent amount of wrongness to any prediction. It is
impossible to predict the weather with 100 percent certainty.
P.S. I'm still waiting for you to post a shred of evidence that meteorologists are as wrong as you believe they are; evidence that isn't "because I said so" or "this doesn't fit my anecdotal experiences."
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on August 31, 2019, 09:18:09 AM
P.S. I'm still waiting for you to post a shred of evidence that meteorologists are as wrong as you believe they are; evidence that isn't "because I said so" or "this doesn't fit my anecdotal experiences."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/03/21/why-people-think-weather-forecasts-are-bad-when-they-are-actually-pretty-good/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/02/how-meteorologists-compare-to-other-professions-that-predict-the-future/
And let's pray it doesn't circle around like Harvey did.
NC Gov. Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency yesterday.
https://www.witn.com/content/news/Governor-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-Hurricane-Dorian-558852531.html (https://www.witn.com/content/news/Governor-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-Hurricane-Dorian-558852531.html)
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/dorian-is-continuing-to-grow-and-strengthen
When looking at this, this could be similar to Irene and Matthew. I hate these hurricanes because they close school and we end up having to go 30 days straight without any breaks. I'm in high school, and it's my last year.
I'm getting sick of the constant meteorologist-bashing that seems to be popular on this forum. These people have a bachelor's degree or higher in atmospheric science and clearly know what they're doing. Weather forecasting is not an exact science and meteorologists do a lot more than just read what the model spits out. While models do a lot of the hard work, a meteorologist's job nowadays involves comparing model outputs, taking into account the inherent biases of each model and also small-scale effects (such as terrain) that affect local weather but are too small to be resolved by large-scale models.
As for this hurricane specifically: the NHC and local WFOs are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they forecast the storm to miss Florida and it winds up taking a more western track, Florida will be unprepared and royally fucked. If they forecast a landfall and the storm eventually misses to the east, everyone who prepared for the storm will be pissed. In either case, they run the risk of losing the public's confidence, which results in nobody heeding evacuation orders in the future. It doesn't help when you have 10 different models with 10 different ideas of exactly what's going to happen -- especially in a case such as this, where a very small change in track results in a huge change in observed effects. Cape Canaveral might get off with tropical storm force winds and some rain, but if the storm deviates just a bit further west (which is definitely in the realm of possibility), they might experience category 4 winds.
Ok, being a resident of NC and going through 6 of these messes is not easy but, to those saying and earthquake is better, STFU!!
Hurricanes:
1. Have a better chance of being predicted and the problems can be mostly prepared for a faster recovery.
2. Allow people, mostly, to evacuate, the ones that don't leave choose to stay and are warned they are on their own by law enforcement and given their last chance to leave, they have the means to leave to better shelter.
3. Can still change paths 24 hrs prior to hitting hurricane Fran was predicted in '96 to miss the Triangle area up until the day it made landfall and it hit us squarely.
4. When you can predict an earthquake a week in advance, call Guinness and start playing the lottery.
5. If another Westerner thanks they either don't have to deal with it or glad they moved back West. Don't worry we'll be fine and when your earthquake hits we'll be thankful we don't live that constant state of fear.
Rant over, those that can, please post the closing for those outside the area and keeps us in your thoughts. Those here, keep watching and do what is necessary to keep you and your loved ones safe.
Yeah, I grew up in eastern NC and after feeling the 2011 earthquake that originated in Virginia (I was living in Farmville), I'd rather deal with a hurricane. At least with a hurricane you have an advance warning that you're gonna get fucked.
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on August 31, 2019, 03:59:05 PM
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/dorian-is-continuing-to-grow-and-strengthen
When looking at this, this could be similar to Irene and Matthew. I hate these hurricanes because they close school and we end up having to go 30 days straight without any breaks. I'm in high school, and it's my last year.
It's worse in college. Lost days aren't made up, which means that everything has to be taught more quickly.
I'd just like to throw this (https://www.facebook.com/NOAAESRL/photos/a.168425951692/10153920996596693/?type=3&theater) out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...
Quote from: froggie on September 01, 2019, 07:58:31 AM
I'd just like to throw this (https://www.facebook.com/NOAAESRL/photos/a.168425951692/10153920996596693/?type=3&theater) out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...
That's the meteorologist's job to use their formulas to determine their forecasts. Even if one cannot explain the math behind the models, one can certainly determine when their forecasts are not supported by reality. :D
Quote from: LM117 on September 01, 2019, 06:20:49 AM
Yeah, I grew up in eastern NC and after feeling the 2011 earthquake that originated in Virginia (I was living in Farmville), I'd rather deal with a hurricane. At least with a hurricane you have an advance warning that you're gonna get fucked.
Was here for that too!! That was unreal and totally surprising!!
Seems like the hurricane itself is going more in the ocean than on land so i'm sure we would be alright, but we are still going to get hit hard.
Quote from: Rothman on September 01, 2019, 10:34:20 AM
Quote from: froggie on September 01, 2019, 07:58:31 AM
I'd just like to throw this (https://www.facebook.com/NOAAESRL/photos/a.168425951692/10153920996596693/?type=3&theater) out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...
That's the meteorologist's job to use their formulas to determine their forecasts. Even if one cannot explain the math behind the models, one can certainly determine when their forecasts are not supported by reality. :D
And they do. Often times some models will produce solutions that are clearly unrealistic. (One extreme example: one run of the NAM blew this year's Hurricane Barry up to a sub-870mb monster over the Gulf of Mexico.) Meteorologists have to identify these obviously bad runs, throw them out, look at what they determine to be the reasonable solutions, identify a general pattern, and make a forecast based on it.
Let's hope then the Port St. Lucie nuclear power plant will hold on. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article234556862.html
The highest winds projected for Cocoa, FL are on Wednesday for 41 mph.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/3be52649f587423c53950070bb4fc14d74dd48d4c0b4a9d676483d15160c555d
^ I wouldn't put much stock in that winds forecast. It wouldn't take much of a nudge in the storm track to increase (or conversely decrease) those winds.
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get? Like this:
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fviewser.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FGroundhog-Day-Blizzard-on-Lake-Shore-Drive.jpg&hash=bf2810a0af9be9c01f4b4618e41e85f034f9a14f)
I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.
Anyway, they have hurricanes with rain, wind, and storm surge. We have snowstorms with wind, ice, and of course, 15 to 25 inches of snow dumped overnight. It balances.
Aside from when Buffalo got 7 feet of snow all at once, I've never heard of a snow storm destroying houses. I've never heard of anyone needing to evacuate due to one, either. Just don't drive on the roads during the worst of it, get out your shovel, and wait for the plows and salt to make the roads passable. Much nicer than evacuating and having a hurricane destroy your home.
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-02-georgia-south-carolina-north-carolina-hurricane-dorian
Hope everyone's ok!
Quote from: froggie on September 02, 2019, 08:24:49 PM
I wouldn't put much stock in that winds forecast. It wouldn't take much of a nudge in the storm track to increase (or conversely decrease) those winds.
No, but I have been watching Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Cocoa to see what the local forecasts are, as the storm heads north, to get an idea of the forecasted local effects. NHC takes a very high level view where you see this blob off the coast.
Quote from: Brandon on September 02, 2019, 08:52:59 PM
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get? Like this:
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fviewser.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FGroundhog-Day-Blizzard-on-Lake-Shore-Drive.jpg&hash=bf2810a0af9be9c01f4b4618e41e85f034f9a14f)
I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.
They would probably handle it as well as Raleigh, NC did in 2014:
(https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/weather/2014/02/13/13390408/image_1_-363x485.jpg)
Living in Missouri my whole life, the only Tropical Storm/Hurricane I've been in was Andrea back in 2013. I guess it's a win-win when all the tornadoes decide to miss you.
And replying to my comment i'm guessing these are what the colors mean.
Light green - <1 inch
Green - 1-3 inches
Dark green - 3-5 inches
Yellow - 5-8 inches
Orange - 8-12 inches
Red - 1-2 feet!
Purple.... >2 feet!!!
(https://s.w-x.co/util/image/v/1567429909334_5859248436-hd.jpg?v=at&w=815&h=458)
Quote from: Beltway on September 02, 2019, 09:10:25 PM
Quote from: froggie on September 02, 2019, 08:24:49 PM
I wouldn't put much stock in that winds forecast. It wouldn't take much of a nudge in the storm track to increase (or conversely decrease) those winds.
No, but I have been watching Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Cocoa to see what the local forecasts are, as the storm heads north, to get an idea of the forecasted local effects. NHC takes a very high level view where you see this blob off the coast.
Which is why I much prefer this page (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/), which expresses the probability that winds of a given strength will be experienced at a certain location, both during a certain time period and cumulative. That product is also made in a graphical form for thresholds at 34 kt (39 mph) (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/215101.shtml?tswind120#contents), 50 kt (58 mph) (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/215101.shtml?50wind120#wcontents), and 64 kt (74 mph) (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/215101.shtml?hwind120#wcontents) thresholds.
Also, weather.com probably isn't a great source for actual observed conditions. If you want the latest observations from weather stations, https://mesowest.utah.edu/ is one of the best websites out there at least for US locations.
Quote from: US 89 on September 02, 2019, 10:06:38 PM
Quote from: Beltway on September 02, 2019, 09:10:25 PM
No, but I have been watching Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Vero Beach and Cocoa to see what the local forecasts are, as the storm heads north, to get an idea of the forecasted local effects. NHC takes a very high level view where you see this blob off the coast.
Which is why I much prefer this page (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/), which expresses the probability that winds of a given strength will be experienced at a certain location, both during a certain time period and cumulative. That product is also made in a graphical form for thresholds at 34 kt (39 mph) (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/215101.shtml?tswind120#contents), 50 kt (58 mph) (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/215101.shtml?50wind120#wcontents), and 64 kt (74 mph) (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/215101.shtml?hwind120#wcontents) thresholds.
Both too complicated with those tables and too fuzzy with those graphics.
Just provide a simple forecast hour by hour such as the link I posted, and you can see current wind speeds at the city, which are being reported locally.
Quote from: US 89 on September 02, 2019, 10:06:38 PM
Also, weather.com probably isn't a great source for actual observed conditions. If you want the latest observations from weather stations, https://mesowest.utah.edu/ is one of the best websites out there at least for US locations.
NOAA NHC has been inaccurate many times as well.
Quote from: LM117 on September 02, 2019, 09:18:12 PM
Quote from: Brandon on September 02, 2019, 08:52:59 PM
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get? Like this:
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fviewser.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FGroundhog-Day-Blizzard-on-Lake-Shore-Drive.jpg&hash=bf2810a0af9be9c01f4b4618e41e85f034f9a14f)
I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.
They would probably handle it as well as Raleigh, NC did in 2014:
(https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/weather/2014/02/13/13390408/image_1_-363x485.jpg)
Heh. During the so-called Blizzard of '96, Durham didn't plow the streets. Reason: The county only had one snowplow and it broke down.
Quote from: 1995hoo on September 03, 2019, 09:19:57 AM
Quote from: LM117 on September 02, 2019, 09:18:12 PM
Quote from: Brandon on September 02, 2019, 08:52:59 PM
Quote from: Henry on August 30, 2019, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on August 30, 2019, 04:53:02 PM
I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.
I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.
Meanwhile, may I remind everyone of the snowstorms and blizzards we get? Like this:
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fviewser.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FGroundhog-Day-Blizzard-on-Lake-Shore-Drive.jpg&hash=bf2810a0af9be9c01f4b4618e41e85f034f9a14f)
I'm certain Floridians would be downright terrified of that.
They would probably handle it as well as Raleigh, NC did in 2014:
(https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/weather/2014/02/13/13390408/image_1_-363x485.jpg)
Heh. During the so-called Blizzard of '96, Durham didn't plow the streets. Reason: The county only had one snowplow and it broke down.
Sounds about right. :-D
Quote from: US 89 on September 02, 2019, 10:06:38 PM
Also, weather.com probably isn't a great source for actual observed conditions. If you want the latest observations from weather stations, https://mesowest.utah.edu/ is one of the best websites out there at least for US locations.
As a meteorologist, I concur with this. Though it's also possible to specifically pull official weather stations from TWC if you know where to look. The layman may not know the difference between an official station and a hobby station, though.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDfNMgDW4AMPsqR?format=jpg&name=large)
Quote from: Beltway on September 02, 2019, 10:21:52 PM
Just provide a simple forecast hour by hour such as the link I posted, and you can see current wind speeds at the city, which are being reported locally.
Local NWS offices produce an hourly grid forecast which I'd trust significantly more than forecasts from websites like Accuweather or weather.com. Those forecasts most likely pull numbers straight from a computer, while the NWS grids are fine-tuned by human meteorologists familiar with the area. For example, here's the current NWS wind forecast for Melbourne, FL (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=28.0795&textField2=-80.6129&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=).
In this news story, it shows the hazards of predicting the forecast incorrectly. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/floridians-frustrated-by-cost-of-evacuation-lost-wages-as-they-wait-for-dorian/ar-AAGITeX?li=BBnb7Kz Many stores and businesses have closed waiting for the storm, and that puts many people - those living paycheck to paycheck - out of work. Even worse, now they don't have the funds to try to escape even if they could, because those lost wages means that they're going to need to fight harder just for the basic necessities - groceries, rent, etc. There are a lot of people in this position...more than what we would like to see. Even those that did evacuate now may have to leave just as the storm is hitting because they don't have the funds to stay longer. Even worse...those that evacuated based on the storm's projected path may now be sitting in the storm's new path, forcing another evacuation.
Quote from: US 89 on August 31, 2019, 05:55:03 PM
...As for this hurricane specifically: the NHC and local WFOs are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they forecast the storm to miss Florida and it winds up taking a more western track, Florida will be unprepared and royally fucked. If they forecast a landfall and the storm eventually misses to the east, everyone who prepared for the storm will be pissed. In either case, they run the risk of losing the public's confidence, which results in nobody heeding evacuation orders in the future...
Bingo That last sentence of yours is the most important one in all when it comes to forecasting weather. We constantly hear that we need to take heed to the warnings. When those warnings are constantly spit out and nothing happens, it erodes that trust.
I don't think it helps either that the forecasters rarely apologize regarding a missed forecast. In an extreme example a few years back, the Weather Channel published a long non-apology stating that they were correct in a snowstorm forecast...except it hit 100 miles from where they thought it would, so a few cities were overly prepared for a storm that never hit, and another city was greatly underprepared...and yet the Weather Channel claimed success. That certainly didn't go over well with the public.
Quote from: froggie on September 01, 2019, 07:58:31 AM
I'd just like to throw this (https://www.facebook.com/NOAAESRL/photos/a.168425951692/10153920996596693/?type=3&theater) out there and invite the meteorologist-bashers to explain these formulas...
I'll take it on, since you're aware of my dislike.
I can't explain these formulas.
Just like I can't remove an appendix from a person because I'm not a doctor.
Or teach a class of kids because I'm not a teacher.
Or driver a tractor trailer because I don't have a Class A CDL.
Or design a drainage ditch because I'm not an engineer.
Sure, it's a complicated formula. If that's something a college-graduate meteorologist should know, then they should know. That's why meteorologists exist...to solve the problems and inform us of the results the rest of us don't know the answer to.
Quote from: US 89 on September 03, 2019, 11:47:05 AM
Quote from: Beltway on September 02, 2019, 10:21:52 PM
Just provide a simple forecast hour by hour such as the link I posted, and you can see current wind speeds at the city, which are being reported locally.
Local NWS offices produce an hourly grid forecast which I'd trust significantly more than forecasts from websites like Accuweather or weather.com. Those forecasts most likely pull numbers straight from a computer, while the NWS grids are fine-tuned by human meteorologists familiar with the area. For example, here's the current NWS wind forecast for Melbourne, FL (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=28.0795&textField2=-80.6129&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=).
Very close to the profile on weather.com. There are a variety of sources that are usable for these forecasts.
Quote from: vdeane on September 02, 2019, 09:02:52 PM
Aside from when Buffalo got 7 feet of snow all at once, I've never heard of a snow storm destroying houses. I've never heard of anyone needing to evacuate due to one, either. Just don't drive on the roads during the worst of it, get out your shovel, and wait for the plows and salt to make the roads passable. Much nicer than evacuating and having a hurricane destroy your home.
Not exactly a house, but yet - in February 2010, a hangar roof in Dulles airport (near DC) collapsed on several planes. all those seen on the photos were written off.
(https://www.cseonline.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/dulles-5.jpg)
(https://www.aopa.org/-/media/images/legacy/aopa/home/news/all/2010/winter-blast-hits-dulles-airport/slide03.jpg)
For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190904/346decbbd55426db8c1243099ef7056e.jpg)
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on September 04, 2019, 07:20:58 AM
For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.
All depends on drainage and length of the storm. If the area has had average rainfall recently, it will greatly assist with the rain. If there's been a lot of rain, the ground may be overly saturated and can't hold the additional rainfall. If it's been dry, the ground is too hard, and rain water will run off rather than be absorbed.
The drainage infrastructure in the area matters as well. If you're near the edge of the storm, less rainwater will be heading towards the outflow areas compared to if you're in the middle of the storm where a lot more rain from other areas will need to utilize that same outflow area.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on September 04, 2019, 01:17:31 PM
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on September 04, 2019, 07:20:58 AM
For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.
All depends on drainage and length of the storm. If the area has had average rainfall recently, it will greatly assist with the rain. If there's been a lot of rain, the ground may be overly saturated and can't hold the additional rainfall. If it's been dry, the ground is too hard, and rain water will run off rather than be absorbed.
The drainage infrastructure in the area matters as well. If you're near the edge of the storm, less rainwater will be heading towards the outflow areas compared to if you're in the middle of the storm where a lot more rain from other areas will need to utilize that same outflow area.
It's Eastern NC, that is still a lot of rain. See Floyd of '99.
Now I hope it misses Virginia Beach.
I have business there Friday and that will be the peak for the storm impacts.
The Bahamas looks like a war zone. Freeport and Marsh Harbour both have nothing but debris scattered across the island. What do you expect from being battered for 36 hours straight from high winds above the norm.
Quote from: goobnav on September 04, 2019, 02:35:04 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on September 04, 2019, 01:17:31 PM
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on September 04, 2019, 07:20:58 AM
For us, it's projected that we will get 6-10 inches of rain. I'm not sure if that's enough to submerge cars where you enter in.
All depends on drainage and length of the storm. If the area has had average rainfall recently, it will greatly assist with the rain. If there's been a lot of rain, the ground may be overly saturated and can't hold the additional rainfall. If it's been dry, the ground is too hard, and rain water will run off rather than be absorbed.
The drainage infrastructure in the area matters as well. If you're near the edge of the storm, less rainwater will be heading towards the outflow areas compared to if you're in the middle of the storm where a lot more rain from other areas will need to utilize that same outflow area.
It's Eastern NC, that is still a lot of rain. See Floyd of '99.
Yep. I was living in Warsaw when Floyd hit. It wasn't fun.
Hurricanes!
1999 - Floyd
2004 - Charley
2010 - Earl
2011 - Irene
2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)
2014 - Arthur
2016 - Matthew
2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)
2018 - Florence
2019 - Dorian!
Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on September 04, 2019, 04:51:23 PM
Hurricanes!
1999 - Floyd
2004 - Charley
2010 - Earl
2011 - Irene
2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)
2014 - Arthur
2016 - Matthew
2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)
2018 - Florence
2019 - Dorian!
Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm. If you live anywhere near the Atlantic seaboard odds are you'll get hit at some point every couple years even if it just rain.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.
Never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) say never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane)...
Quote from: US 89 on September 04, 2019, 08:38:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.
Never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) say never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane)...
Even less reason to live in Southern California. :-D
Quote from: US 89 on September 04, 2019, 08:38:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.
Never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) say never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane)...
Don't forget the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen in 1976 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kathleen_(1976)#California). Killed several people in Ocotillo, destroyed part of Interstate 8, and also prompted the abandonment of a rail line to San Diego (the city later acquired some of the stranded tracks for its new light-rail system).
Quote from: oscar on September 04, 2019, 08:58:32 PM
Quote from: US 89 on September 04, 2019, 08:38:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.
Never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) say never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane)...
Don't forget the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen in 1976 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kathleen_(1976)#California). Killed several people in Ocotillo, destroyed part of Interstate 8, and also prompted the abandonment of a rail line to San Diego (the city later acquired some of the stranded tracks for its new light-rail system).
Had quite a few remnants roll through Arizona when I lived there circa 2001-2013 but nothing all that serious aside from flooded washes from what I can recall:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arizona_hurricanes
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on September 04, 2019, 04:51:23 PM
Hurricanes!
1999 - Floyd
2004 - Charley
2010 - Earl
2011 - Irene
2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)
2014 - Arthur
2016 - Matthew
2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)
2018 - Florence
2019 - Dorian!
Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm. If you live anywhere near the Atlantic seaboard odds are you'll get hit at some point every couple years even if it just rain.
Missouri is always a great option if you want to swap Hurricanes out with tornadoes. That being said the chance of a tornado striking a given point is much, much lower than that of a hurricane (though we occasionally get Remanents of them, like Barry earlier this year).
This is just my opinion, but if these hurricanes are going to be a yearly occurrence in NC, they should work towards completing the US70 (from I-40 to the coast) and US74 (from Charlotte to Wilmington) freeways quicker so that they have more efficient evacuation routes from the coast.
Quote from: mvak36 on September 05, 2019, 10:14:41 AM
This is just my opinion, but if these hurricanes are going to be a yearly occurrence in NC, they should work towards completing the US70 (from I-40 to the coast) and US74 (from Charlotte to Wilmington) freeways quicker so that they have more efficient evacuation routes from the coast.
40 already has reverse capability to 95 if needed. I-42 will help the Southern OBX but, the majority of the route is 4 lanes already, just with cross streets and traffic signals.
Quote from: ozarkman417 on September 04, 2019, 11:48:24 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on September 04, 2019, 04:51:23 PM
Hurricanes!
1999 - Floyd
2004 - Charley
2010 - Earl
2011 - Irene
2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)
2014 - Arthur
2016 - Matthew
2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)
2018 - Florence
2019 - Dorian!
Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm. If you live anywhere near the Atlantic seaboard odds are you'll get hit at some point every couple years even if it just rain.
Missouri is always a great option if you want to swap Hurricanes out with tornadoes. That being said the chance of a tornado striking a given point is much, much lower than that of a hurricane (though we occasionally get Remanents of them, like Barry earlier this year).
I wouldn't trade living in North Carolina for Missouri. Really about the only thing that I can think that would draw my interest is all the US 66 stuff. At least in North Carolina you have the best mountains on the east coast and a pretty nice coastal area to boot. I'd be willing to suffer through a tropical storm or two if I had to pick between those two states.
Quote from: mrhappy1261 on September 04, 2019, 04:51:23 PM
Hurricanes!
1999 - Floyd
2004 - Charley
2010 - Earl
2011 - Irene
2012 - Sandy (didn't really affect the Carolinas but we got some rain from it)
2014 - Arthur
2016 - Matthew
2017 - Irma (also didn't really affect us)
2018 - Florence
2019 - Dorian!
Can we just have a year without hurricanes?!
You did. In 2013. :D
Quote from: US 89 on September 04, 2019, 08:38:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.
Never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) say never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane)...
With climate change, I would imagine there will be an increased chance of hurricanes staying together long enough to make landfall in SoCal. Normally, the peak ocean temperature reaches the mid 70s in late August. I can imagine with an overall increase in water temperature, even the cold Humboldt Current can be impacted.
Quote from: Mark68 on September 05, 2019, 01:26:14 PM
Quote from: US 89 on September 04, 2019, 08:38:05 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on September 04, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
Move to the West Coast and you'll virtually have zero chance of encountering a tropical storm.
Never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) say never (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane)...
With climate change, I would imagine there will be an increased chance of hurricanes staying together long enough to make landfall in SoCal. Normally, the peak ocean temperature reaches the mid 70s in late August. I can imagine with an overall increase in water temperature, even the cold Humboldt Current can be impacted.
LOL!!!! Seriously, for a hurricane to even form the average water temp has to be at least 82 degrees. All you would get is an extra tropic disturbance, not even close to being a hurricane.
Back in the 70's and early 80's they predicted a coming Ice Age. Here we are 30 years later no Ice Age. Ugh, the climate does change, it's called the 4 seasons. No, not the singing group.
Quote from: mvak36 on September 05, 2019, 10:14:41 AM
This is just my opinion, but if these hurricanes are going to be a yearly occurrence in NC, they should work towards completing the US70 (from I-40 to the coast) and US74 (from Charlotte to Wilmington) freeways quicker so that they have more efficient evacuation routes from the coast.
They're trying to, especially regarding the US-70/Future I-42 corridor. All of the I-42 corridor is either under construction or in the planning stages. Problem is funding, which has become a big problem lately because of the recent hurricanes and Map Act settlements. Many projects across the state were pushed back because of that. The projects were on track until the chickens came home to roost.
All NC ferry routes are now closed.
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-05-ferry-routes-closed-dorian.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-05-ferry-routes-closed-dorian.aspx)
Knew it. Wilmington NC wind speeds are currently in the 50's, but they are going to go in the 80's. I still have power.
https://outagemaps.duke-energy.com/#/current-outages/ncsc
This website shows you the outages. Sampson County apparently has 8,809 outages, That's very high.
Quote from: LM117 on September 05, 2019, 07:45:30 PM
All NC ferry routes are now closed.
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-05-ferry-routes-closed-dorian.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-05-ferry-routes-closed-dorian.aspx)
My wife is supposed to be taking the Auto Train to Florida this Saturday to visit relatives and to bring some items back to Virginia. The train hasn't run all week but hasn't yet been cancelled for Saturday. Somehow I doubt it will be running, especially because the route runs through the Charleston area and there are bound to be issues with downed trees and probably flooding. But I told her not to cancel: If THEY cancel, she gets either a refund or 100% credit via an e-voucher, whereas if she cancels, she gets 75% credit via an e-voucher.
Our former next-door neighbors moved to the area just south of Wilmington last year. Haven't heard from them this week.
Quote from: NE2 on September 05, 2019, 10:20:36 PM
Quote from: sprjus4 on September 05, 2019, 09:11:16 PM
Quote from: NE2 on September 05, 2019, 08:38:17 PM
Quote from: goobnav on September 05, 2019, 02:45:13 PM
I'm too dumb to live.
Heh. “Climate change”
It's happening.
Yes it is, and more likely than not the majority of it is human-caused. However, it’s important to note that current research does not show much of a link between hurricanes and climate change, compared to some other natural disasters such as floods and droughts. All else being equal, warmer SSTs would lead to an increase - but all else is not equal. The complex stew of ingredients that come together to form hurricanes also includes several other factors that don’t directly depend on temperature.
Also, using one hurricane as evidence of climate change is pretty poor science anyway, because it’s cherry picking data. The whole point of climate is to average out the weather extremes in either direction. Yes, the US has been affected by several major hurricanes in the past few years, but we also went from 2005 to 2017 without a single major landfall - the longest period without one on record.
Quote from: US 89 on September 06, 2019, 08:47:59 AM
...but we also went from 2005 to 2017 without a single major landfall - the longest period without one on record.
And even that is stretching it. Hurricane Sandy in 2012 was briefly downgraded to a tropical storm just before encountering land, still with hurricane force winds and at $70 Billion, is the 4th costliest storm ever to hit the US.
Quote from: LM117 on September 05, 2019, 04:39:18 PM
Quote from: mvak36 on September 05, 2019, 10:14:41 AM
This is just my opinion, but if these hurricanes are going to be a yearly occurrence in NC, they should work towards completing the US70 (from I-40 to the coast) and US74 (from Charlotte to Wilmington) freeways quicker so that they have more efficient evacuation routes from the coast.
They're trying to, especially regarding the US-70/Future I-42 corridor. All of the I-42 corridor is either under construction or in the planning stages. Problem is funding, which has become a big problem lately because of the recent hurricanes and Map Act settlements. Many projects across the state were pushed back because of that. The projects were on track until the chickens came home to roost.
Also, the I-74 corridor is well on its way to being fully complete from east of Winston-Salem to Lumberton. East of Lumberton, it's still up in the air in regards to the final routing, despite the 1991 proposal taking it to Myrtle Beach. However, the plan to make US 74 an all-freeway route from Charlotte to Rockingham is also beginning to take shape, with the Monroe Expressway being the first (and most crucial) step, and the intersection-to-interchange conversions along Independence Blvd will certainly help achieve that goal.
Quote from: Henry on September 06, 2019, 09:57:21 AM
However, the plan to make US 74 an all-freeway route from Charlotte to Rockingham is also beginning to take shape, with the Monroe Expressway being the first (and most crucial) step, and the intersection-to-interchange conversions along Independence Blvd will certainly help achieve that goal.
The Shelby Bypass is another major step, but that project has had its issues, so it won't be fully completed for quite awhile.
The Independence Blvd upgrades are important, especially as that's an urban route to Downtown, but A) it's not a full freeway upgrade, it's simply 3-lanes in each direction with a 50 mph speed limit, tight urban interchanges, and RIRO driveway and street connections, and B) Any US-74 interstate concept would more than likely follow I-485 around the southwest side.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on September 06, 2019, 09:53:20 AM
Quote from: US 89 on September 06, 2019, 08:47:59 AM
...but we also went from 2005 to 2017 without a single major landfall - the longest period without one on record.
And even that is stretching it. Hurricane Sandy in 2012 was briefly downgraded to a tropical storm just before encountering land, still with hurricane force winds and at $70 Billion, is the 4th costliest storm ever to hit the US.
Nah, that wasn't even close. Sandy made landfall as an extratropical system with 80 mph sustained winds (category 1 equivalent). Major hurricanes are defined to be category 3 or higher (115 mph).
That said, the Saffir-Simpson category scale isn't really a great indicator of the damage potential of a hurricane, because it only takes into account wind speed. In most hurricanes, including Sandy, the majority of the destruction comes from rain or storm surge flooding.
Quote from: US 89 on September 06, 2019, 12:37:54 PM
That said, the Saffir-Simpson category scale isn't really a great indicator of the damage potential of a hurricane, because it only takes into account wind speed. In most hurricanes, including Sandy, the majority of the destruction comes from rain or storm surge flooding.
In this case metro NYC, which is one of the identified three most hurricane-vulnerable places in the U.S. for catastrophic damage and loss of human life, the others being NOLA and Miami Fla.
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-05-passenger-rail.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-05-passenger-rail.aspx)
Ferry service to Ocracoke is limited to emergency responders until further notice.
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-07-ferry-ocracoke.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-07-ferry-ocracoke.aspx)
Quote from: LM117 on September 08, 2019, 08:08:40 AM
Ferry service to Ocracoke is limited to emergency responders until further notice.
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-07-ferry-ocracoke.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-07-ferry-ocracoke.aspx)
Update.
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-08-emergency-ferry-service.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-08-emergency-ferry-service.aspx)
I was watching the Cincinnati/Ohio State game on Saturday, and it was mentioned that one of the offensive linemen for the Cincinnati Bearcats (#75 Chris Ferguson) is from Nassau, Bahamas. The neighborhoods he grew up in were totally leveled by Hurricane Dorian. Hopefully, his family was all right.
https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-13-this-week-ncdot.aspx (https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2019/2019-09-13-this-week-ncdot.aspx)
QuoteDorian Recovery
In the wake of Hurricane Dorian, the N.C. Department of Transportation is putting its efforts into making repairs to reopen state roads quickly.
About a dozen roads are still closed, including N.C. 12 in Ocracoke where more than 1,000 feet of major dunes and pavement will need to be replaced.
The damage from Dorian is estimated to be about $45 million and repairs are expected to be complete by the end of the year.
And another tropical storm may soon strike the Bahamas again. Talk about adding insult to injury.