From FEMA and GeoCONOPS:
The NMSZ has a 10 percent probability of a catastrophic NMSZ earthquake in the next fifty years. (from 2018)
(https://communities.geoplatform.gov/geoconops/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/5_1Earquake.png)
A scenario analysis of a 7.7 NMSZ quake found that bridges as far north as Rock Island and Hennepin (yes, that I-180 bridge) and as far south as Natchez would sustain damage.
(https://communities.geoplatform.gov/geoconops/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/5_4MajorDamage.png)
Bridges predicted to fail in a 7.7 are as follows:
- The 2 Cairo Bridges
- The Chester bridge
- The Paducah Bridge (US-45)
- I-155 Bridge
- Arkansas-Memphis Bridge
- DeSoto Bridge
- Helena Bridge
- Pine Bluff Bypass (Busn US-79)
The scenario analysis of a New Madrid event reaching 7.7 can be found here:
https://communities.geoplatform.gov/geoconops/2018/09/01/the-new-madrid-earthquake-scenario/ (https://communities.geoplatform.gov/geoconops/2018/09/01/the-new-madrid-earthquake-scenario/)
Too much information to cover in this thread, but they go through all the consequences in stark detail, including deaths, homelessness, how long it will take first responders to arrive, FEMA to get the National Guard in. All covered.
Maybe instead of a movie called "San Andreas", we need a new one called "New Madrid" and see if Dwayne Johnson can save us.
The chance of a major solar flare within the next 50 years is also about 10 percent, and it will be as disruptive as COVID-19 (but in a different way), but globally. It will actually be quite the opposite of COVID-19; everything will be moved from online to physical and non-electronic for several months. This type of event happened in 1859; with very little technology at the time, there were few issues.
Seismic retrofits are a fun chunk of the highway budgets on the West Coast, so perhaps y'all should get used to seeing them. Though even if the major bridges are retrofitted, it won't be entirely passable if the approaches and overpasses collapse and block the way.
I didn't see the Cape Girardeau, I-57/Cairo, nor I-24/Paducah bridges on the "likely to fail" list
The Cairo/IL-KY bridge is already scheduled to be replaced
The Chester bridge has failed once, and I believe it is coming due for replacement anyway
If/When/Should the Big One happen, maybe that would be good justification for giving the Cape Girardeau bridge its Parkway/Expressway/Freeway connection to I-57 and I-24 that has been studied but no further action, cutting thru the Shawnee National Forest - for Trans-Mississippi River redundancy
Quote from: ilpt4u on October 14, 2021, 07:06:58 PM
I didn't see the Cape Girardeau, I-57/Cairo, nor I-24/Paducah bridges on the "likely to fail" list
They were on the "damage" list.
According to the damage chart, most of the seismic energy will travel south.
But because the midwest is so flat and regular, the shock waves will travel much farther.
Quote from: 1 on October 14, 2021, 06:46:25 PM
The chance of a major solar flare within the next 50 years is also about 10 percent, and it will be as disruptive as COVID-19 (but in a different way), but globally. It will actually be quite the opposite of COVID-19; everything will be moved from online to physical and non-electronic for several months. This type of event happened in 1859; with very little technology at the time, there were few issues.
If there was so little technology in 1859, how did they know it was a solar flare?
Northern lights?
Quote from: edwaleni on October 14, 2021, 11:25:27 PM
Quote from: 1 on October 14, 2021, 06:46:25 PM
The chance of a major solar flare within the next 50 years is also about 10 percent, and it will be as disruptive as COVID-19 (but in a different way), but globally. It will actually be quite the opposite of COVID-19; everything will be moved from online to physical and non-electronic for several months. This type of event happened in 1859; with very little technology at the time, there were few issues.
If there was so little technology in 1859, how did they know it was a solar flare?
Northern lights?
Probably. Telegraphs (basically all that existed at the time) did have problems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
Kentucky did a lot of seismic retrofitting on I-24 and the western parkway bridges years ago.
Evidence of the retrofitting can also be seen on the overpasses along US 51 (future I-69) between Dyersburg and Union City.
Quote from: hbelkins on October 15, 2021, 01:28:21 PM
Kentucky did a lot of seismic retrofitting on I-24 and the western parkway bridges years ago.
Evidence of the retrofitting can also be seen on the overpasses along US 51 (future I-69) between Dyersburg and Union City.
And along I-40 heading east from Memphis.
Examples of some seismic remediation in the NMFZ.
US-51 north of Dyersburg
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51601392013_bb5878ab0b_b.jpg)
I-57/I-70 Overpass - Effingham IL
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51600355572_862340178f_b.jpg)
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51601837264_4ff90f39ee_b.jpg)
I-270 in Missouri
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51601837329_ccaf2a351b_b.jpg)
I-55 near Blythedale
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51601392218_a1a4064ba4_b.jpg)
Interesting that all of the St Louis area bridges are "safe" under this scenario. I thought there would be some that wouldn't make it, specifically the I-270 bridge over the Mississippi River.
Quote from: SkyPesos on October 18, 2021, 01:56:09 AM
Interesting that all of the St Louis area bridges are "safe" under this scenario. I thought there would be some that wouldn't make it, specifically the I-270 bridge over the Mississippi River.
The report only notes that certain bridges will certainly fail, the rest are listed as "damaged". As to the fact they will be usable will depend on the inspection post tremor.
Bridges that use masonry based pylons are the most at risk because they have very small tolerance for sideway stresses.
Many of the bridges in and around I-270 in St Louis have been rebuilt since the NMSZ requirements came into being. I remember MoDOT putting up braces and cables back in the late 80's until they could be replaced.
The I-64 and I-44 bridges have all been replaced with newer and thicker support pylons. But many bridges, especially down near I-55 are still legacy.
I checked the Illinois side on I-255 and none have external remediation, so I can't tell if it was designed in or will require replacement. Many of the support structures on I-255 south of I-70/I-55 have rebar exposures and will require some kind of work in the next 10 years.
Perhaps Rick Powell has some insight on this generation design for IDOT, since they follow the same design pattern all the way to Jefferson Barracks.
I-255 just had major rehab work done on it south of I-55/70 to IL 15 or so. I have no idea if part of the project included any bridge seismic work
Besides New Madrid, there's another fault zone known as the Wabash Valley fault zone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wabash_Valley_Seismic_Zone
They way they're localized in the map, I wonder if it could be part of the same fault system?
Quote from: Stephane Dumas on October 18, 2021, 04:03:12 PM
Besides New Madrid, there's another fault zone known as the Wabash Valley fault zone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wabash_Valley_Seismic_Zone
They way they're localized in the map, I wonder if it could be part of the same fault system?
I lived in this area when we had 4.7 centered near Parkersburg, Illinois in 1972 at around 430PM.
I was visiting Indianapolis when the 2008 quake struck at 4 in the morning. I actually woke up to the dogs barking before I felt the vibrations.
Here is a map of the relationship between the WVSZ and the NMSZ.
(https://igws.indiana.edu/images/bedrock/fig1.jpg)
https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1538o/report.pdf (https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1538o/report.pdf)
https://igws.indiana.edu/Bedrock/Wabash (https://igws.indiana.edu/Bedrock/Wabash)
It was not unheard of where oil wells stopped producing after a tremor back when oil was easier to get.
According to USGS, the WVFZ is capable of producing up to a 7.0, but I don't think they have measured more than a 5.2.
Farther north in Illinois they have 'rebound quakes' that never go over 5.0. No fault lines, they are caused by the earth pushing itself back up after 10's of thousands of years of solid ice pushing it down during the ice age, hence the term "rebound".
There's a known fault near Clays Ferry, where I-75 crosses the Kentucky River on a very high and heavily-traveled bridge.
Yeah, I read an older site that had a wealth of links about liquefaction in the New Madrid Seismic Zone and the probability of the bridges up and down the Mississippi River (the southern Ohio River and northern Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers would be impacted as well) making it through another similar event (http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm (http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm)). There would be significant damage not only to bridges, but approaches, roads, houses, buildings, etc. The area is littered with sandboils, and the bedrock below the piers of the I-155 bridge are over 200 ft. down, but the piers were not built nearly that far.
Pretty much the entire bootheel of MO was turned into a swamp due to the events of 1811-1812 as the Little River used to be its own river system. They had to do a Panama Canal-level drainage project (Little River Drainage District) to even make the bootheel farmable. Lots more infrastructure and people in the area now compared to what was around in 1811-1812. (https://www.kfvs12.com/story/8222926/little-river-where-has-it-gone/ (https://www.kfvs12.com/story/8222926/little-river-where-has-it-gone/)) That project created farmable land equivalent in size to the state of Delaware, so just imagine losing more than 1 state's worth of territory to the forces of nature, and then imagine that it's fairly statistically possible in our lifetimes. We aren't beginning to fathom yet how disruptive to transportation and commerce that would be due to the density of the road connectivity in this region. Everyone's focus seems to be on the coastlines.
Quote from: MikieTimT on October 28, 2021, 11:44:48 AM
.... Everyone's focus seems to be on the coastlines.
That's due to the bi-coastal biases of our mainstream media. To them, we're all just "flyover country".
Quote from: MikieTimT on October 28, 2021, 11:44:48 AM
Yeah, I read an older site that had a wealth of links about liquefaction in the New Madrid Seismic Zone and the probability of the bridges up and down the Mississippi River (the southern Ohio River and northern Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers would be impacted as well) making it through another similar event (http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm (http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm)). There would be significant damage not only to bridges, but approaches, roads, houses, buildings, etc. The area is littered with sandboils, and the bedrock below the piers of the I-155 bridge are over 200 ft. down, but the piers were not built nearly that far.
Pretty much the entire bootheel of MO was turned into a swamp due to the events of 1811-1812 as the Little River used to be its own river system. They had to do a Panama Canal-level drainage project (Little River Drainage District) to even make the bootheel farmable. Lots more infrastructure and people in the area now compared to what was around in 1811-1812. (https://www.kfvs12.com/story/8222926/little-river-where-has-it-gone/ (https://www.kfvs12.com/story/8222926/little-river-where-has-it-gone/)) That project created farmable land equivalent in size to the state of Delaware, so just imagine losing more than 1 state's worth of territory to the forces of nature, and then imagine that it's fairly statistically possible in our lifetimes. We aren't beginning to fathom yet how disruptive to transportation and commerce that would be due to the density of the road connectivity in this region. Everyone's focus seems to be on the coastlines.
A massive event in this area will destroy the economy. River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export. Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered. I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.
Quote from: msunat97 on November 11, 2021, 12:40:51 PM
A massive event in this area will destroy the economy. River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export. Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered. I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.
Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.
Quote from: SSR_317 on November 14, 2021, 03:48:57 PM
Quote from: msunat97 on November 11, 2021, 12:40:51 PM
A massive event in this area will destroy the economy. River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export. Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered. I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.
Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.
Also, the FedEx Express air superhub is in Memphis.
4.0 quake near Poplar Bluff Wednesday evening
https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2021-11-18-02-53-03-utc-4-0-16
Quote from: mukade on November 17, 2021, 06:05:13 PM
Quote from: SSR_317 on November 14, 2021, 03:48:57 PM
Quote from: msunat97 on November 11, 2021, 12:40:51 PM
A massive event in this area will destroy the economy. River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export. Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered. I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.
Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.
Also, the FedEx Express air superhub is in Memphis.
Makes you wonder about their business continuity plans!
Quote from: MikieTimT on November 17, 2021, 11:10:31 PM
Quote from: mukade on November 17, 2021, 06:05:13 PM
Quote from: SSR_317 on November 14, 2021, 03:48:57 PM
Quote from: msunat97 on November 11, 2021, 12:40:51 PM
A massive event in this area will destroy the economy. River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export. Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered. I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.
Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.
Also, the FedEx Express air superhub is in Memphis.
Makes you wonder about their business continuity plans!
I would assume part of the "backup" /disaster plan would involve rerouting at least some of that air hub traffic to their smaller, but still sizable, hub operation out of IND
Quote from: ysuindy on November 17, 2021, 11:01:39 PM
4.0 quake near Poplar Bluff Wednesday evening
https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2021-11-18-02-53-03-utc-4-0-16
The bootheel has had 179 quakes in the past year. I think that 4.0 (and 2.5 aftershock) near Poplar Bluff is the highest for some time.
While the USGS thinks he is a quack, there is a guy on You Tube who has predicted several quakes in the NMFZ.
He makes his predictions based on behaviors from the Alaska and California faults. When they quake a certain way he says it pushes pressure east across the plates.
After one in California, he predicted accurately one in the New Madrid and a follow up one in North Carolina.
When one plate moves, the ones around them have to adjust themselves.
Quote from: ilpt4u on November 18, 2021, 10:00:07 AM
Quote from: MikieTimT on November 17, 2021, 11:10:31 PM
Quote from: mukade on November 17, 2021, 06:05:13 PM
Quote from: SSR_317 on November 14, 2021, 03:48:57 PM
Quote from: msunat97 on November 11, 2021, 12:40:51 PM
A massive event in this area will destroy the economy. River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export. Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered. I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.
Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.
Also, the FedEx Express air superhub is in Memphis.
Makes you wonder about their business continuity plans!
I would assume part of the "backup" /disaster plan would involve rerouting at least some of that air hub traffic to their smaller, but still sizable, hub operation out of IND
IND is in fact the "National Hub" for FedEx (MEM is their "World Hub"), but Indy could still suffer damage from a sizable New Madrid temblor. But it would likely be repaired much more quickly than MEM could be, given the likely epicenter of such a quake. I'm also sure that FedEx executives have adequate disaster plans in place to deal with such a scenario.
FedEx is an excellent company, and I am sure they have serious business continuity plans. But that is not really the point. If there was an earthquake like there was in 1811 and 1812, Memphis would suffer seriously. To some extent, the impact on FedEx probably would depend a lot on how many of the aircraft in their fleet would be on the ground at the time.
Indianapolis is the "national hub" and Memphis is the "SuperHub". There are also hubs in Oakland, Newark, Fort Worth, Anchorage, and other cities in the US. I have no numbers, but when I look at the live flights in a mobile app when FedEx planes are most active, I would guestimate that Memphis gets 3X or 4X the number of flights as Indy, and Indy gets more flights than the other smaller hubs. 100% anecdotal. Also, Memphis is active all day while the other hubs are not.
Quote from: mukade on November 26, 2021, 09:18:47 PM
FedEx is an excellent company, and I am sure they have serious business continuity plans. But that is not really the point. If there was an earthquake like there was in 1811 and 1812, Memphis would suffer seriously. To some extent, the impact on FedEx probably would depend a lot on how many of the aircraft in their fleet would be on the ground at the time.
Indianapolis is the "national hub" and Memphis is the "SuperHub". There are also hubs in Oakland, Newark, Fort Worth, Anchorage, and other cities in the US. I have no numbers, but when I look at the live flights in a mobile app when FedEx planes are most active, I would guestimate that Memphis gets 3X or 4X the number of flights as Indy, and Indy gets more flights than the other smaller hubs. 100% anecdotal. Also, Memphis is active all day while the other hubs are not.
FedEx Memphis appears to have the largest amount of equipment on the ground between 8PM-2AM. So if a serious quake were to strike the NMFZ at say 11PM or midnight;
And it damaged the airport so badly that aircraft could not come or go, I would say it would severely impact any service they operate.
Yes, they could divert to another hub to operate, but there is a chance that a large percentage of their air fleet would be stuck in Memphis due to the timing of the tremblor.
Quote from: edwaleni on October 18, 2021, 10:36:50 AM
I checked the Illinois side on I-255 and none have external remediation, so I can't tell if it was designed in or will require replacement. Many of the support structures on I-255 south of I-70/I-55 have rebar exposures and will require some kind of work in the next 10 years.
Perhaps Rick Powell has some insight on this generation design for IDOT, since they follow the same design pattern all the way to Jefferson Barracks.
I did a spot check of the ages of the 255 corridor bridges and they were built in the mid 80s. IDOT was doing more advanced seismic design and retrofit starting in the 90s and increasing retrofitting starting in the mid 2000s. The 255 corridor is in seismic zone 2 of IDOTs 4 tier seismic map, so not as critical as the southern tip of the state. I am not sure of what, if any, retrofit has been performed on the 255 corridor.
Quote from: Rick Powell on November 27, 2021, 01:31:11 AM
Quote from: edwaleni on October 18, 2021, 10:36:50 AM
I checked the Illinois side on I-255 and none have external remediation, so I can't tell if it was designed in or will require replacement. Many of the support structures on I-255 south of I-70/I-55 have rebar exposures and will require some kind of work in the next 10 years.
Perhaps Rick Powell has some insight on this generation design for IDOT, since they follow the same design pattern all the way to Jefferson Barracks.
I did a spot check of the ages of the 255 corridor bridges and they were built in the mid 80s. IDOT was doing more advanced seismic design and retrofit starting in the 90s and increasing retrofitting starting in the mid 2000s. The 255 corridor is in seismic zone 2 of IDOTs 4 tier seismic map, so not as critical as the southern tip of the state. I am not sure of what, if any, retrofit has been performed on the 255 corridor.
I did read (since I posted on this) that IDOT is planning to repair/refit several bridges on I-255 between IL-3 north to I-64.
There is a lot of rebar exposure in this segment. It would be interesting to see when the bid sheets come out if seismic work will be included.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51709377316_f1e3ba8ecd_b.jpg)
I saw a interesting vlog about the New Madrid fault.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kn2KFC8cX-g
Memphis and the east bank of the river in general should weather a strong earthquake relatively well because that side of the river is built on solid rock as opposed to the west bank, which is alluvial soils all the way back to Little Rock. There will be damage, but hopefully not as severe as some think. Liquefaction on the Arkansas side of the river is a given, though.
Quote from: Road Hog on December 05, 2021, 09:22:20 PM
Memphis and the east bank of the river in general should weather a strong earthquake relatively well because that side of the river is built on solid rock as opposed to the west bank, which is alluvial soils all the way back to Little Rock. There will be damage, but hopefully not as severe as some think. Liquefaction on the Arkansas side of the river is a given, though.
That's why there are so many cases of sandblows in the sunken lands between the St. Francis and Mississippi Rivers in northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. I could only imagine what it was like during those tremors back in 1811-12 with the ground erupting sand and water and waterfalls appearing on the Mississippi River that went backwards for an hour. The road system west of the Mississippi will be in shambles for a hundred miles north, south, and west of the epicenter in the event of a big one.
Quote from: MikieTimT on December 08, 2021, 10:35:16 AM
Quote from: Road Hog on December 05, 2021, 09:22:20 PM
Memphis and the east bank of the river in general should weather a strong earthquake relatively well because that side of the river is built on solid rock as opposed to the west bank, which is alluvial soils all the way back to Little Rock. There will be damage, but hopefully not as severe as some think. Liquefaction on the Arkansas side of the river is a given, though.
That's why there are so many cases of sandblows in the sunken lands between the St. Francis and Mississippi Rivers in northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. I could only imagine what it was like during those tremors back in 1811-12 with the ground erupting sand and water and waterfalls appearing on the Mississippi River that went backwards for an hour. The road system west of the Mississippi will be in shambles for a hundred miles north, south, and west of the epicenter in the event of a big one.
There are a lot of videos on YouTube by historians and USGS that outline the impacts of the NMFZ. One USGS staff member has located several of the 1811 sand blows and also done videos on them.
He even found a former bayou with buried sycamore stumps from a tremor before the 1811-1812 event. As he put it "in Braveheart days".
Unfortunately, most people don't know is that the largest ever federal land reclamation works project was done in this area from 1890 to 1930. It converted the Missouri bootheel and NE Arkansas from mostly swamps to fertile farmland.
If another large tremor were to hit the NMFZ, no doubt this series of dams, culverts, canals and water diversions would fail and there would be widespread flooding from south of Cape Girardeau all the way south to near Helena.
Quote from: mukade on November 26, 2021, 09:18:47 PM
... Also, Memphis is active all day while the other hubs are not.
Not true, the IND hub is active 24/7 as well.
In the event of significant damage to KMEM, businesses that would otherwise with FedEx could ship with UPS for a while, as their hub is located in Louisville, which would most likely be OK. Though it wouldn't be a perfect arrangement: its ground deliveries would be significantly delayed and costly as a result of damaged or destroyed bridges and roads, as well as significantly increased cargo traffic placed on UPS.
Quote from: SSR_317 on December 26, 2021, 04:53:37 PM
Quote from: mukade on November 26, 2021, 09:18:47 PM
... Also, Memphis is active all day while the other hubs are not.
Not true, the IND hub is active 24/7 as well.
I have not seen a FedEx flight into Indy in 48 hours, yet Memphis is very active. Which makes sense because Memphis is the primary hub. So IND is not 24X7.
Other than around holidays, IND takes flights 7 days a week for sure. On weekends, flights do not arrive around the clock.
I am sure IND could pick up a lot of the slack, but the scale is not the same.
Quote from: edwaleni on November 18, 2021, 10:45:12 AM
...
When one plate moves, the ones around them have to adjust themselves.
True, but New Madrid is a MID-PLATE Fault System. Thus it MAY behave differently than other faults at plate boundaries.
Quote from: SSR_317 on January 08, 2022, 04:17:24 PM
Quote from: edwaleni on November 18, 2021, 10:45:12 AM
...
When one plate moves, the ones around them have to adjust themselves.
True, but New Madrid is a MID-PLATE Fault System. Thus it MAY behave differently than other faults at plate boundaries.
Since this hasn't ruptured since the advent of plate tectonics as a science, most everything is an unknown about this particular fault, other than it's seemingly apocolyptic past in the area. Makes planning a real booger, especially given the finances of the region.