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Non-Road Boards => Off-Topic => Topic started by: roadman65 on April 16, 2022, 09:29:19 AM

Title: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: roadman65 on April 16, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Was in Houston lately and of course it's not only the fourth largest US City in terms of population after NYC, LA, and Chicago, but a city that's grown many times over from its original small size.

Starting with a small circle beltway around now has two full beltways with a third being built. Bedroom communities that extend outward from the core, stem out almost 50 miles from Downtown Houston.  Heck I-45 is urban or suburban for 100 miles from its southern terminus in Galveston to The Woodlands northwest of Houston.  So it's evident that Houston area is growing along with the land within its large square miles of corporations.

Plus recent political demographics and changes many are choosing to make Houston their home and with the higher taxes in some parts of the US, they are flocking in groves to come to Houston live. Many are used to parking lot freeways so to wait two hours on the IH 45 is nothing to them especially if you used to commute I-405 in CA or I-495 on Long Island previously.

Last year I was conversing with a native Texan who believes the next census will move Chicago again from the third to fourth largest US city, and advancing Houston to the third spot.  Of course it was just a few decades ago where Chicago dropped from the second largest US city after New York to its present status when LA grew from its previous demos advancing it from number three to second to New York City.

With all that is constantly changing in the Houston City Limits shift it to the third US city in population next official count?
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore.  That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 16, 2022, 11:12:29 AM
I think 2050 is more realistic.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.

And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:52:39 AM
Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.

And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.

I seem to recall the gain in 2000 was fairly sizable and the loss just as much so I'm 2010.  There certainly is a long term decline, but not the Detroit level decline it would need to be for Houston to catch Chicago this next decade.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 16, 2022, 12:50:36 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.

And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
Well, that would explain why my house is worth $100K more than it was worth four years ago...oh wait...
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: ZLoth on April 16, 2022, 02:35:38 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on April 16, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Was in Houston lately and of course it's not only the fourth largest US City in terms of population after NYC, LA, and Chicago, but a city that's grown many times over from its original small size.

Starting with a small circle beltway around now has two full beltways with a third being built. Bedroom communities that extend outward from the core, stem out almost 50 miles from Downtown Houston.  Heck I-45 is urban or suburban for 100 miles from its southern terminus in Galveston to The Woodlands northwest of Houston.  So it's evident that Houston area is growing along with the land within its large square miles of corporations.

I'm going to challenge this statement partially "city comparison" is a bit of a misnomer, and you are better off comparing Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Why?

The biggest challenge that I have is that you are ignoring the suburbs that are attached to the cities. Houston has, for example, Midtown, Sugarland, Montrose, Pearland, Nassau Bay, Katy, and the Woodlands. All those folks would consider themselves part of the Houston area, and would probably say they are from Houston when talking to people who live out of the area. Likewise with the folks in many other major cities. (I live in Richardson, TX which is ⅔ in Dallas County, but say I'm from "Dallas", and previously I would say "Sacramento" when I actually lived in Citrus Heights which was part of Sacramento County.) Texas is one of the growing states, so families are more likely to move to the suburbs of a city rather than the city itself for affordability reasons.

The solution, for the most part, is to utilize the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) which includes the suburbs that are attached to the major cities. When we take a look at the 2021 estimates for the top five MSAs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area):
Unfortunately, this also leads to the combining of Dallas and Fort Worth. :) For reference, Houston's population is between the states of #15 Tennessee (7,001,803) and #14 Arizona (7,640,796). Also, it is estimated that the top three MSAs lost population while DFW and Houston MSAs gained population.

And, if we look at the 2020-2021 Television Market size (https://oaaa.org/Portals/0/Public%20PDFs/OAAA%202021%20NIELSEN%20DMA%20Rankings%20Report.pdf) in terms of number of television households:
(There was no release of the 2021-2022 television markets. If there was, I firmly believe that DFW would have been the #4 market, and Philadelphia the #5 market.)

I personally have no desire to live in either Houston or Chicago. Maybe I had bad luck that day, but in 2017 when I stuck in Houston for 24 hours due to a missed flight over fourth of July weekend, it was in the 90s in both temperature and humidity. And Chicago is known for their harsh and cold winters. Three years ago, I moved to north Dallas, and it was a extremely stressful experience that I have no desire in repeating.

Quote from: abefroman329 on April 16, 2022, 12:50:36 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
Well, that would explain why my house is worth $100K more than it was worth four years ago...oh wait...

It would be better to express it as a percentage of gain rather than a fixed value. My home has gone up an estimated $175k in the past three years, which is a value gain of about 48.6%. The high demand for homes, the low mortgage rates, and the very low housing inventory has pushed up the prices of homes. And, with supply chain issues, they aren't even doing two-story homes at the moment.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 16, 2022, 03:49:01 PM
Quote from: ZLoth on April 16, 2022, 02:35:38 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on April 16, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Was in Houston lately and of course it's not only the fourth largest US City in terms of population after NYC, LA, and Chicago, but a city that's grown many times over from its original small size.

Starting with a small circle beltway around now has two full beltways with a third being built. Bedroom communities that extend outward from the core, stem out almost 50 miles from Downtown Houston.  Heck I-45 is urban or suburban for 100 miles from its southern terminus in Galveston to The Woodlands northwest of Houston.  So it's evident that Houston area is growing along with the land within its large square miles of corporations.

I'm going to challenge this statement partially "city comparison" is a bit of a misnomer, and you are better off comparing Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Why?

The biggest challenge that I have is that you are ignoring the suburbs that are attached to the cities. Houston has, for example, Midtown, Sugarland, Montrose, Pearland, Nassau Bay, Katy, and the Woodlands. All those folks would consider themselves part of the Houston area, and would probably say they are from Houston when talking to people who live out of the area. Likewise with the folks in many other major cities. (I live in Richardson, TX which is ⅔ in Dallas County, but say I'm from "Dallas", and previously I would say "Sacramento" when I actually lived in Citrus Heights which was part of Sacramento County.) Texas is one of the growing states, so families are more likely to move to the suburbs of a city rather than the city itself for affordability reasons.

The solution, for the most part, is to utilize the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) which includes the suburbs that are attached to the major cities. When we take a look at the 2021 estimates for the top five MSAs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area):

  • New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA - 19,768,458 (includes NYC of 8,622,357)
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA - 12,997,353 (includes Los Angeles of 4,085,014)
  • Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA - 9,509,934 (includes Chicago of 2,670,406)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA - 7,759,615 (includes Dallas of 1,400,337, Fort Worth of 958,692, and Arlington of 401,047)
  • Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA - 7,206,841 (includes Houston of 2,378,146)
Unfortunately, this also leads to the combining of Dallas and Fort Worth. :) For reference, Houston's population is between the states of #15 Tennessee (7,001,803) and #14 Arizona (7,640,796). Also, it is estimated that the top three MSAs lost population while DFW and Houston MSAs gained population.

And, if we look at the 2020-2021 Television Market size (https://oaaa.org/Portals/0/Public%20PDFs/OAAA%202021%20NIELSEN%20DMA%20Rankings%20Report.pdf) in terms of number of television households:

  • New York - 7,452,620
  • Los Angeles - 5,735,230
  • Chicago - 3,471,560
  • Philadelphia - 2,997,360
  • Dallas-Ft. Worth - 2,962,520
  • San Francisco-Oak-San Jose - 2,653,270
  • Atlanta - 2,648,970
  • Houston - 2,569,900
  • Washington DC (Hagrstwn) - 2,565,580
  • Boston (Manchester) - 2,489,620
(There was no release of the 2021-2022 television markets. If there was, I firmly believe that DFW would have been the #4 market, and Philadelphia the #5 market.)

I personally have no desire to live in either Houston or Chicago. Maybe I had bad luck that day, but in 2017 when I stuck in Houston for 24 hours due to a missed flight over fourth of July weekend, it was in the 90s in both temperature and humidity. And Chicago is known for their harsh and cold winters. Three years ago, I moved to north Dallas, and it was a extremely stressful experience that I have no desire in repeating.

Quote from: abefroman329 on April 16, 2022, 12:50:36 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
Well, that would explain why my house is worth $100K more than it was worth four years ago...oh wait...

It would be better to express it as a percentage of gain rather than a fixed value. My home has gone up an estimated $175k in the past three years, which is a value gain of about 48.6%. The high demand for homes, the low mortgage rates, and the very low housing inventory has pushed up the prices of homes. And, with supply chain issues, they aren't even doing two-story homes at the moment.
True. My home is worth about 33% more, which may not be much, but if people were fleeing Chicago the way the Trump supporters say they are, it wouldn't have appreciated at all.

[Edited to remove incendiary political language. -S.]
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore.  That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

I think there's a lot of chances for Texas to go off the rails before that happens. Texans nearly always have this attitude that Texas is the best state and everyone should do things like Texas and blah blah blah but it means that when something is rotten in the state of Texas they have blinders on and don't realize anyone from out-of-state would consider it a problem. Things like ERCOT fumbling the response to that ice storm last year and leaving the state in the dark for days shows that the Texas way of doing things isn't all it's cracked up to be. There's been no fix implemented to those problems. Also, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems (which you can say about a lot of states, but Texas is such a large state that it has a much greater impact than whatever nonsense emanates from Oklahoma City or Santa Fe). There's no way I would ever want to live in Texas. Even visiting for more than about 3 days or so and I'm ready to get the hell out.

Another thing that could spell trouble for Houston in particular is that much of its economy revolves around oil. Oil usage is going to drop dramatically in our lifetimes; it may take 10 years, it may take 50 years, but the writing is on the wall. Now, Houston has a diverse enough economy it's not going to turn into Detroit when the oil business contracts, but it is likely to curb growth to something that will keep it in 4th place.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 16, 2022, 06:38:07 PM
To be fair, Scott, you do seem to have a particular chip on your shoulder about Texas...
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 06:47:20 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2022, 06:38:07 PM
To be fair, Scott, you do seem to have a particular chip on your shoulder about Texas...

I'm obligated to under the Oklahoma constitution. :P
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: jgb191 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:58 AM
A fact lost on many people:  the city of Houston DID in fact lose population for nearly a half-decade in the late 1980s.  The 1986 population was 1.728 million and the 1990 population was down to 1.629 million.  This explains the meager net-gain from the 1980 census to that of 1990 of only 34,000.

My initial hope (decades ago) was the Houston would have already overtaken Chicago before 2020, given the latter's population kept declining.  But Chicago's population has been bouncing up and down like a basketball since the start of this millennium up until now.  In seven decades, Houston's population went from less than 600K (1950) to 2.3 million (2020) -- an average of almost a quarter-million gain per decade.  By the 2030 census, Houston is on pace to have exceeded 2.5 million.  So I would say in just over a decade from now (assuming Chicago's population keeps hovering around 2.7 million), Houston will have finally caught up to Chicago.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: bandit957 on April 17, 2022, 10:29:11 AM
Big cities in general have declined just since 2020.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: HighwayStar on April 17, 2022, 03:30:53 PM
Very hard to say. I think the bigger variable here is what happens to Chicago. I could see a major exodus if we have a return to 70's/80's crime levels and people decide to leave.
Houston is going to see a lot of area growth which is not actually in the city limits.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:05 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:59 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:05 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
...and?
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 17, 2022, 04:30:48 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:59 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:05 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
...and?

I can't speak for everybody, but I would think a lot of people moving within their metro area is due to a desire to have more space for a growing family. Cheaper land may come into play with that as they'll need to reallocate financial resources to raise kids with.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Flint1979 on April 17, 2022, 04:33:03 PM
Even if Houston does pass Chicago it doesn't have the density or the suburban population that Chicago does. Houston is about 3 times bigger than Chicago area wise and Chicago has more population in the suburbs than Houston does too. Harris County might have 4.7 million people compared to Cook County's 5.3 million but the difference in land area comes into play here too.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 17, 2022, 05:01:19 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:59 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:05 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
...and?

Most are citing property taxes as the reason. That and a shift to remote work that allows them to live farther from the office.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. :P
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. :P

Yeah what a terrible wasteland, big nice houses and tons of shopping, its awful!  :-D
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Rothman on April 18, 2022, 05:59:57 PM


Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. [emoji14]

Yeah what a terrible wasteland, big nice houses and tons of shopping, its awful!  :-D

Nice flooded houses and flooded shopping...
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: JayhawkCO on April 18, 2022, 06:00:52 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. :P

Yeah what a terrible wasteland, big nice houses and tons of shopping, its awful!  :-D

Not everyone likes same same. The newer suburbs in the Denver area are far more cookie cutter (and thus, to me, less appealing) than some of the older suburbs and obviously the city itself.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 18, 2022, 06:07:01 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. :P

Yeah what a terrible wasteland, big nice houses and tons of shopping, its awful!  :-D
"Nice" by what standard?  You know the old adage about how you can only have two of the following: fast, cheap, good?  Those houses are fast and cheap.

I agree that they're big, though.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 18, 2022, 06:07:01 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. :P

Yeah what a terrible wasteland, big nice houses and tons of shopping, its awful!  :-D
"Nice" by what standard?  You know the old adage about how you can only have two of the following: fast, cheap, good?  Those houses are fast and cheap.

I agree that they're big, though.

All housing built in the post war era is fast and cheap, it does not matter where it is. So unless you are buying and refurbishing pre-war housing you have the same stuff they have.
Personally, my dream would be to buy something old school and fix it up, but baring that a nice big house at a good price is hard to beat. Few people moving to Houston are complaining about their McMansions.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 18, 2022, 06:41:27 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMAll housing built in the post war era is fast and cheap, it does not matter where it is.
Hasty generalization
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMSo unless you are buying and refurbishing pre-war housing you have the same stuff they have.
False dichotomy
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMa nice big house at a good price is hard to beat.
Bandwagon fallacy
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMFew people moving to Houston are complaining about their McMansions.
Appeal to ignorance
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: SkyPesos on April 18, 2022, 06:49:25 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PM
Personally, my dream would be to buy something old school and fix it up
Does that include the barbed wire?  :bigass:
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 18, 2022, 06:41:27 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMAll housing built in the post war era is fast and cheap, it does not matter where it is.
Hasty generalization
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMSo unless you are buying and refurbishing pre-war housing you have the same stuff they have.
False dichotomy
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMa nice big house at a good price is hard to beat.
Bandwagon fallacy
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PMFew people moving to Houston are complaining about their McMansions.
Appeal to ignorance

Its not a "hasty generalization" standard construction methods are what they are. Show me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.
Not a "false dichotomy" as you realistically only have those two choices. To build something ground up using quality methods costs far more then renovation, so it is not a meaningful option. For it to be false  you would have to have other options, but meaningfully you don't.
How is this a "bandwagon" fallacy? More space is marginal utility positive, if that were not true price would not go up with size.
How is that an "appeal to ignorance"? People are making this choice, so clearly it must be better than any alternatives they have. More importantly, they would rather have these large houses built with standard methods than something smaller built to old quality standards. I would say it is much more ignorant for someone to claim they single-handedly know what is better for these thousands of people than they themselves do.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:46:41 PM
Quote from: SkyPesos on April 18, 2022, 06:49:25 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 06:19:19 PM
Personally, my dream would be to buy something old school and fix it up
Does that include the barbed wire?  :bigass:

Assuming it was somewhere more urban without cattle rubbing on the fence probabally not.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: formulanone on April 18, 2022, 08:05:45 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.

99% of South Florida.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 08:42:25 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 18, 2022, 08:05:45 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.

99% of South Florida.

I'm going to need some proof...
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: hotdogPi on April 18, 2022, 08:43:36 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 08:42:25 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 18, 2022, 08:05:45 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.

99% of South Florida.

I'm going to need some proof...

Try random Google Street View. If it's truly 99%, you will likely get it on your first try.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 08:44:22 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 18, 2022, 08:43:36 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 08:42:25 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 18, 2022, 08:05:45 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.

99% of South Florida.

I'm going to need some proof...

Try random Google Street View. If it's truly 99%, you will likely get it on your first try.

How on earth am I supposed to tell if someone has plaster walls from GSV? For that matter, it is very doubtful I can tell if it is structural brick or not.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Rothman on April 18, 2022, 09:39:25 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 08:44:22 PM
Quote from: 1 on April 18, 2022, 08:43:36 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 08:42:25 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 18, 2022, 08:05:45 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.

99% of South Florida.

I'm going to need some proof...

Try random Google Street View. If it's truly 99%, you will likely get it on your first try.

How on earth am I supposed to tell if someone has plaster walls from GSV? For that matter, it is very doubtful I can tell if it is structural brick or not.
Silly Barbed Wire Conspiracy Ostrich with His Head in the Sand Guy
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 05:39:49 AM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 08:42:25 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 18, 2022, 08:05:45 PM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.

99% of South Florida.

I'm going to need some proof...

1) Google a realtor in that area 2) you have a car

Principal building material disclosure is pretty much a requirement for buying a domicile.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: hotdogPi on April 19, 2022, 06:32:03 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.

Chicago has worse blizzards than where I live, but I'll take occasional Massachusetts blizzards over a whole bunch of days over 110°.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 07:39:00 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 19, 2022, 06:32:03 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.

Chicago has worse blizzards than where I live, but I'll take occasional Massachusetts blizzards over a whole bunch of days over 110°.
Boston actually gets about 10 more inches of snow on average every year than Chicago does. In fact where I live is right in line with how much snow Boston gets as well. Boston is directly east of me by about 650 miles.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:23 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 07:39:00 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 19, 2022, 06:32:03 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.

Chicago has worse blizzards than where I live, but I'll take occasional Massachusetts blizzards over a whole bunch of days over 110°.
Boston actually gets about 10 more inches of snow on average every year than Chicago does. In fact where I live is right in line with how much snow Boston gets as well. Boston is directly east of me by about 650 miles.

Chicago is very hit or miss. Last winter I had 30+ inches on the ground at one point. This winter there was never more than 6 inches on the ground at one time.

Michigan City up the coast to Holland and then southwest from there get the largest amount of snow. Where I grew up was just barely outside the lake effect zone. There were days where my town would get 3-4 inches of snow and as little as 10 miles to the NW had well over a foot.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 08:00:58 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:23 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 07:39:00 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 19, 2022, 06:32:03 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.

Chicago has worse blizzards than where I live, but I'll take occasional Massachusetts blizzards over a whole bunch of days over 110°.
Boston actually gets about 10 more inches of snow on average every year than Chicago does. In fact where I live is right in line with how much snow Boston gets as well. Boston is directly east of me by about 650 miles.

Chicago is very hit or miss. Last winter I had 30+ inches on the ground at one point. This winter there was never more than 6 inches on the ground at one time.

Michigan City up the coast to Holland and then southwest from there get the largest amount of snow. Where I grew up was just barely outside the lake effect zone. There were days where my town would get 3-4 inches of snow and as little as 10 miles to the NW had well over a foot.
Actually where I live we almost always get the same weather Chicago has for some reason. It was like that here too I don't think there was ever more than 6 inches on the ground here. Michigan as a state gets hit with lake effect snow pretty good, the central parts of the state not as much but still get quite a bit of snow each year. The Keweenaw Peninsula probably gets the most snow in the entire state like around 250-300 inches a year.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 08:02:23 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:23 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 07:39:00 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 19, 2022, 06:32:03 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.

Chicago has worse blizzards than where I live, but I'll take occasional Massachusetts blizzards over a whole bunch of days over 110°.
Boston actually gets about 10 more inches of snow on average every year than Chicago does. In fact where I live is right in line with how much snow Boston gets as well. Boston is directly east of me by about 650 miles.

Chicago is very hit or miss. Last winter I had 30+ inches on the ground at one point. This winter there was never more than 6 inches on the ground at one time.

Michigan City up the coast to Holland and then southwest from there get the largest amount of snow. Where I grew up was just barely outside the lake effect zone. There were days where my town would get 3-4 inches of snow and as little as 10 miles to the NW had well over a foot.

Yeah, I don't know about Chicago having worse blizzards than Boston. When I think of a blizzard, I think firstly of a nor'easter, the type of winter storm that hits Boston quite frequently, and secondly of a ground blizzard, the type more common in the Great Plains and upper Midwest with high winds and extremely low visibility. (And when you Google "types of blizzard", Dairy Queen's different Blizzard® options come up.  :-D)

Chicago is also not squarely in lake effect snow territory because it's west of Lake Michigan, while the heaviest lake effect snow tends to fall downwind (east/southeast) of the lakes, as noted. The point being, it's a toss-up at best, with Chicago having slightly less snowfall while average temperatures are slightly higher in Boston.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 08:07:23 AM
I remember in March 2012 it hit like 80 degrees in the Great Lakes. Then the next winter was one of those deep freezes where the temp would stay below zero for long periods of time. This last winter wasn't bad at all, it snowed here yesterday but the snow has already melted. The back and forth temps though are annoying, like one day it'll be 70 and the next day it'll be in the 40's.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: hotdogPi on April 19, 2022, 08:09:07 AM
Snowstorms where everything stops and all businesses are closed are about one storm per year on average. (School being canceled is slightly more frequent, as are annoyances that don't actually shut everything down.)

When I was mentioning Chicago vs. Boston, I was specifically thinking about lake effect (not realizing it didn't apply) and temperatures below -10°, which doesn't happen here.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 08:12:45 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 19, 2022, 08:09:07 AM
Snowstorms where everything stops and all businesses are closed are about one storm per year on average. (School being canceled is slightly more frequent, as are annoyances that don't actually shut everything down.)

When I was mentioning Chicago vs. Boston, I was specifically thinking about lake effect (not realizing it didn't apply) and temperatures below -10°, which doesn't happen here.
January and February are the only two months it'd get that cold and it does get that cold at times in Chicago. Most of the time though the highs are in the 30's and lows in the upper teens but of course it can get colder than that.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 19, 2022, 08:24:42 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 19, 2022, 08:09:07 AM
Snowstorms where everything stops and all businesses are closed are about one storm per year on average. (School being canceled is slightly more frequent, as are annoyances that don't actually shut everything down.)

When I was mentioning Chicago vs. Boston, I was specifically thinking about lake effect (not realizing it didn't apply) and temperatures below -10°, which doesn't happen here.

An ocean will obviously moderate temperatures more than a lake, even one as large as Lake Michigan.

That said, most people from Chicago will tell you that +10 and -10 don't really seem all that different. You reach a point where it takes a certain number of layers to go outside comfortably and beyond that, getting even colder doesn't change things.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Rothman on April 19, 2022, 08:50:13 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 08:02:23 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:23 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 07:39:00 AM
Quote from: 1 on April 19, 2022, 06:32:03 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.

Chicago has worse blizzards than where I live, but I'll take occasional Massachusetts blizzards over a whole bunch of days over 110°.
Boston actually gets about 10 more inches of snow on average every year than Chicago does. In fact where I live is right in line with how much snow Boston gets as well. Boston is directly east of me by about 650 miles.

Chicago is very hit or miss. Last winter I had 30+ inches on the ground at one point. This winter there was never more than 6 inches on the ground at one time.

Michigan City up the coast to Holland and then southwest from there get the largest amount of snow. Where I grew up was just barely outside the lake effect zone. There were days where my town would get 3-4 inches of snow and as little as 10 miles to the NW had well over a foot.

Yeah, I don't know about Chicago having worse blizzards than Boston. When I think of a blizzard, I think firstly of a nor'easter, the type of winter storm that hits Boston quite frequently, and secondly of a ground blizzard, the type more common in the Great Plains and upper Midwest with high winds and extremely low visibility. (And when you Google "types of blizzard", Dairy Queen's different Blizzard[emoji2400] options come up.  :-D)

Chicago is also not squarely in lake effect snow territory because it's west of Lake Michigan, while the heaviest lake effect snow tends to fall downwind (east/southeast) of the lakes, as noted. The point being, it's a toss-up at best, with total snowfall slightly favoring Chicago while average temperatures slightly favor Boston.
No.

Boston's average annual snowfall is 48" per season, whereas Chicago's is 36", a difference of a foot.

No need to postulate off the top of your head when data is available.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 08:56:11 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2022, 08:50:13 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 08:02:23 AM
Yeah, I don't know about Chicago having worse blizzards than Boston. When I think of a blizzard, I think firstly of a nor'easter, the type of winter storm that hits Boston quite frequently, and secondly of a ground blizzard, the type more common in the Great Plains and upper Midwest with high winds and extremely low visibility. (And when you Google "types of blizzard", Dairy Queen's different Blizzard[emoji2400] options come up.  :-D)

Chicago is also not squarely in lake effect snow territory because it's west of Lake Michigan, while the heaviest lake effect snow tends to fall downwind (east/southeast) of the lakes, as noted. The point being, it's a toss-up at best, with total snowfall slightly favoring Chicago while average temperatures slightly favor Boston.
No.

Boston's average annual snowfall is 48" per season, whereas Chicago's is 36", a difference of a foot.

No need to postulate off the top of your head when data is available.

Not sure why you're saying no when that proves the point that Chicago gets less. I wasn't doing anything off the top of my head; Flint1979 already mentioned the approximate difference about 10 posts ago.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Rothman on April 19, 2022, 08:59:18 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 08:56:11 AM
Quote from: Rothman on April 19, 2022, 08:50:13 AM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 08:02:23 AM
Yeah, I don't know about Chicago having worse blizzards than Boston. When I think of a blizzard, I think firstly of a nor'easter, the type of winter storm that hits Boston quite frequently, and secondly of a ground blizzard, the type more common in the Great Plains and upper Midwest with high winds and extremely low visibility. (And when you Google "types of blizzard", Dairy Queen's different Blizzard[emoji2400] options come up.  :-D)

Chicago is also not squarely in lake effect snow territory because it's west of Lake Michigan, while the heaviest lake effect snow tends to fall downwind (east/southeast) of the lakes, as noted. The point being, it's a toss-up at best, with total snowfall slightly favoring Chicago while average temperatures slightly favor Boston.
No.

Boston's average annual snowfall is 48" per season, whereas Chicago's is 36", a difference of a foot.

No need to postulate off the top of your head when data is available.

Not sure why you're saying no when that proves the point that Chicago gets less. I wasn't doing anything off the top of my head; Flint1979 already mentioned the approximate difference about 10 posts ago.
Because I can. :D
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 09:01:49 AM
I did, however, revise my wording, since I could see how "favor" could be misinterpreted.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 09:56:42 AM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PM
I would say it is much more ignorant for someone to claim they single-handedly know what is better for these thousands of people than they themselves do.

You do exactly that in literally every discussion you engage in on this forum.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: JayhawkCO on April 19, 2022, 10:08:50 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 09:56:42 AM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PM
I would say it is much more ignorant for someone to claim they single-handedly know what is better for these thousands of people than they themselves do.

You do exactly that in literally every discussion you engage in on this forum.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/xT1XGU1AHz9Fe8tmp2/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 11:08:57 AM
Quote from: Flint1979 on April 19, 2022, 08:07:23 AM
I remember in March 2012 it hit like 80 degrees in the Great Lakes. Then the next winter was one of those deep freezes where the temp would stay below zero for long periods of time. This last winter wasn't bad at all, it snowed here yesterday but the snow has already melted. The back and forth temps though are annoying, like one day it'll be 70 and the next day it'll be in the 40's.
When the winter is long and/or unbearably cold, it takes longer than normal for Lake Michigan to thaw, which means the wind off the lake keeps summer temperatures on the cooler side.

And yeah, the eastern shore of Lake Michigan definitely gets more lake effect snow. My wife grew up in Holland and it was the first time I'd seen snow that was waist-high.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 11:35:34 AM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.
Bandwagon fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMMore space is marginal utility positive, if that were not true price would not go up with size.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMPeople are making this choice, so clearly it must be better than any alternatives they have.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMMore importantly, they would rather have these large houses built with standard methods than something smaller built to old quality standards.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMI would say it is much more ignorant for someone to claim they single-handedly know what is better for these thousands of people than they themselves do.
Appeal to hypocrisy, causal fallacy, appeal to pity.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:28:19 PM
Also, the crying over "homes are all cookie-cutter"...sure, go hire an architect, then act as a foreman, and contract everything. Must be great to have that much time and money and having another place to live while you sink a minimum of two years into the process.

And while you're at it, go build your own vehicle from scratch, too? I'll even ignore the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle standards, but leave any lingering questions with your insurance company and however your state wants to register/title your jalopy.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: JayhawkCO on April 19, 2022, 12:32:44 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:28:19 PM
Also, the crying over "homes are all cookie-cutter"...sure, go hire an architect, then act as a foreman, and contract everything. Must be great to have that much time and money and having another place to live while you sink a minimum of two years into the process.

And while you're at it, go build your own vehicle from scratch, too? I'll even ignore the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle standards, but leave any lingering questions with your insurance company and however your state wants to register/title your jalopy.

It's not so much that the homes themselves are cookie cutter, it's that the neighborhoods are. Every single neighborhood looks the same and feels the same with the same big box stores and chain restaurants right nearby. It certainly isn't specific to anything in Houston.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 12:33:56 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:28:19 PMAlso, the crying over "homes are all cookie-cutter"...sure, go hire an architect, then act as a foreman, and contract everything. Must be great to have that much time and money and having another place to live while you sink a minimum of two years into the process.
I know a number of people from HS who have done just that, and none are insanely wealthy.

Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:28:19 PMAnd while you're at it, go build your own vehicle from scratch, too? I'll even ignore the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle standards, but leave any lingering questions with your insurance company and however your state wants to register/title your jalopy.
False equivalence is false.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 12:38:04 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 11:35:34 AM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.
Bandwagon fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMMore space is marginal utility positive, if that were not true price would not go up with size.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMPeople are making this choice, so clearly it must be better than any alternatives they have.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMMore importantly, they would rather have these large houses built with standard methods than something smaller built to old quality standards.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMI would say it is much more ignorant for someone to claim they single-handedly know what is better for these thousands of people than they themselves do.
Appeal to hypocrisy, causal fallacy, appeal to pity.

At least HighwayStar attempts to explain his positions. This is just throwing out terms that sound cool with no substance or explanation whatsoever,  and doesn't even come close to being a legitimate counter-argument. Maybe my first mistake was thinking it was supposed to be taken seriously...
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 12:47:44 PM
Quote from: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 12:38:04 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 11:35:34 AM
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMShow me someone building with structural brick or plaster on any scale, oh wait, you can't.
Bandwagon fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMMore space is marginal utility positive, if that were not true price would not go up with size.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMPeople are making this choice, so clearly it must be better than any alternatives they have.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMMore importantly, they would rather have these large houses built with standard methods than something smaller built to old quality standards.
Causal fallacy.
Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 07:45:38 PMI would say it is much more ignorant for someone to claim they single-handedly know what is better for these thousands of people than they themselves do.
Appeal to hypocrisy, causal fallacy, appeal to pity.

At least HighwayStar attempts to explain his positions. This is just throwing out terms that sound cool with no substance or explanation whatsoever,  and doesn't even come close to being a legitimate counter-argument. Maybe my first mistake was thinking it was supposed to be taken seriously...
It wasn't intended to be taken seriously.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 12:33:56 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:28:19 PMAlso, the crying over "homes are all cookie-cutter"...sure, go hire an architect, then act as a foreman, and contract everything. Must be great to have that much time and money and having another place to live while you sink a minimum of two years into the process.
I know a number of people from HS who have done just that, and none are insanely wealthy.

Example? There are kit homes and that's not crazy expensive, but when I hear folks whine about having something unique, it's not easy and can be time-consuming. Were people complaining that homes looked "the same" hundreds of years ago? Probably not.

I don't think most people care about what their home or neighborhood looks like. Much like people don't care too much about how their exact fit or style of their entire wardrobe, they don't grow their own food, or fashion their own furniture. They're happy just seeing something that fits their vague sense of aesthetics for 90% of what they do because it also fits their ideas of function, cost, and space. Honestly, with the exception of someone's specific interests, most people don't give too much thought to everything, and that's okay.

QuoteFalse equivalence is false.
I was going for reductio ad absurdum, but thanks for playing. Going to planish your own fenders to exacting tolerances, or will you busy perfecting the heads in the machine shop before taking it out to the dynometer?

Quote from: JayhawkCO on April 19, 2022, 12:32:44 PM
It's not so much that the homes themselves are cookie cutter, it's that the neighborhoods are. Every single neighborhood looks the same and feels the same with the same big box stores and chain restaurants right nearby. It certainly isn't specific to anything in Houston.

How would groups of people endeavor to design their own neighborhood, then? Bigger cities do offer that, though with varying amounts of compromise. Give the public enough input on one specific project, and it's going to be a platypus of a design, and nobody's going to be happy other than who can profit from it.

I confess that planning and design is way out of my league, but you'd need neighborhoods which cater and prioritize to different mobility needs and aesthetic desires. And to cities (or equivalent) really care any further the equation of Subdevelopment + Utilities + Road(s) +/- optional Retail and/or School = Neighborhood because it's simple?
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 01:09:38 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PMExample? There are kit homes and that's not crazy expensive, but when I hear folks whine about having something unique, it's not easy and can be time-consuming. Were people complaining that homes looked "the same" hundreds of years ago? Probably not.
Probably not, but they weren't flimsy temples to the owner's delusion of grandeur either.  And they also had options besides single-family home.

Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PMI don't think most people care about what their home or neighborhood looks like. Much like people don't care too much about how their exact fit or style of clothing, rarely grow their own food, or fashion their own furniture. They're happy just seeing something that fits their vague sense of aesthetics for 90% of what they do because it also fits their ideas of function.

Once again, people are confusing "I wouldn't want to live in a McMansion" with "no one should ever live in a McMansion, ever."  I manage to sit through carfuckers shitting on cities without losing my mind.

Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PMHow would groups of people endeavor to design their own neighborhood, then? Bigger cities do offer that, though with varying amounts of compromise. Give the public enough input on one specific project, and it's going to be a platypus of a design, and nobody's going to be happy other than who can profit from it.
Right, but there isn't any compromise involved in building the subdivisions I don't want to live in.  Buy a fuckton of farmland, plow it over, offer people their choice of 3 or 4 styles of houses, fully build out the subdivision, flee before someone rinses and repeats with the next plot of land and housing prices plummet.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: JayhawkCO on April 19, 2022, 01:31:09 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on April 19, 2022, 12:32:44 PM
It's not so much that the homes themselves are cookie cutter, it's that the neighborhoods are. Every single neighborhood looks the same and feels the same with the same big box stores and chain restaurants right nearby. It certainly isn't specific to anything in Houston.

How would groups of people endeavor to design their own neighborhood, then? Bigger cities do offer that, though with varying amounts of compromise. Give the public enough input on one specific project, and it's going to be a platypus of a design, and nobody's going to be happy other than who can profit from it.

I confess that planning and design is way out of my league, but you'd need neighborhoods which cater and prioritize to different mobility needs and aesthetic desires. And to cities (or equivalent) really care any further the equation of Subdevelopment + Utilities + Road(s) +/- optional Retail and/or School = Neighborhood because it's simple?

I don't have a problem per se with the fact that there exist cookie cutter suburbs. Some people like them. Others on this site (and I have no reason to think that you're one of them) think EVERYONE should like them. I don't care for them personally. That's the only point I was trying to make. Out here, I could live in Highlands Ranch or even very SE Aurora where that's what you find. I choose not to.

I also don't like chain restaurants. To me, the quality : price ratio is terrible. That said, many, many people in this forum sing the praises of such establishments. I choose to live in a location where those aren't the only options for me, thankfully.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: ZLoth on April 19, 2022, 02:34:49 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PM
I don't think most people care about what their home or neighborhood looks like.

Uhhhh.... excuse me? While no neighborhood is perfect, how your neighbors take care of their homes as well as how you interact with the neighbors affects your quality of life, especially your metal health. Mind you, it's a subjective decision, but there have been neighborhoods where you don't that secure feeling.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 02:36:18 PM
Quote from: ZLoth on April 19, 2022, 02:34:49 PM

Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PM
I don't think most people care about what their home or neighborhood looks like.

Uhhhh.... excuse me? While no neighborhood is perfect, how your neighbors take care of their homes as well as how you interact with the neighbors affects your quality of life, especially your metal health. Mind you, it's a subjective decision, but there have been neighborhoods where you don't that secure feeling.

None of that means people actually care.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 05:04:16 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 19, 2022, 01:05:31 AM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.

On the plus side, Houston (and most of Texas) don't have to worry about crippling blizzards that Chicago has to deal with every winter; snowfall is maybe once per decade in that part of Texas, and accumulations might even be more scarce.  And most tropical weather is limited to TDs, TSs, and maybe a Cat. 1.  A major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) has been fairly rare for the Texas coast.  Harvey has been considered a once-in-a-millennium even for that magnitude of a storm.

I mean, Dallas rarely has blizzards and never has hurricanes, so...
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 05:44:15 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 02:36:18 PM
Quote from: ZLoth on April 19, 2022, 02:34:49 PM

Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 12:54:13 PM
I don't think most people care about what their home or neighborhood looks like.

Uhhhh.... excuse me? While no neighborhood is perfect, how your neighbors take care of their homes as well as how you interact with the neighbors affects your quality of life, especially your metal health. Mind you, it's a subjective decision, but there have been neighborhoods where you don't that secure feeling.

None of that means people actually care.

I meant from an aesthetic point of view; do they really care if the homes are neo-craftsman-style or ersatz-chic bungalows with just-right parapets or those with discrete cornices?*

* Talking out my ass warning.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 06:01:13 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 05:04:16 PM
I mean, Dallas rarely has blizzards and never has hurricanes, so...

OTOH, the blizzards that do happen completely cripple Dallas.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: SectorZ on April 19, 2022, 07:08:50 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 06:01:13 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 05:04:16 PM
I mean, Dallas rarely has blizzards and never has hurricanes, so...

OTOH, the blizzards that do happen completely cripple Dallas.

It doesn't even take a blizzard to cripple them.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kkt on April 19, 2022, 07:23:03 PM
 :popcorn:
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: TheHighwayMan3561 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:51 PM
I can't speak for Chicago, but for MSP, truly crippling snow events are very rare. Maybe twice a winter most places close up early ahead of a snow event and are back to normal the next morning.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 06:01:13 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 05:04:16 PM
I mean, Dallas rarely has blizzards and never has hurricanes, so...

OTOH, the blizzards that do happen completely cripple Dallas.

That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 08:23:47 PM
Quote from: formulanone on April 19, 2022, 05:44:15 PM* Talking out my ass warning.
At the end of the day, that's all any of us are doing.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 08:51:37 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:51 PM
I can't speak for Chicago, but for MSP, truly crippling snow events are very rare. Maybe twice a winter most places close up early ahead of a snow event and are back to normal the next morning.

The morning after Chicago received ten inches of snow one time, I was driven to O'Hare on mostly-clear roads, and my plane left on time.

That's got to tell you something.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: webny99 on April 19, 2022, 08:53:29 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 08:51:37 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:51 PM
I can't speak for Chicago, but for MSP, truly crippling snow events are very rare. Maybe twice a winter most places close up early ahead of a snow event and are back to normal the next morning.

The morning after Chicago received ten inches of snow one time, I was driven to O'Hare on mostly-clear roads, and my plane left on time.

That's got to tell you something.

That you're in the Great Lakes region, to be exact.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: abefroman329 on April 19, 2022, 09:15:40 PM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 08:51:37 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:51 PM
I can't speak for Chicago, but for MSP, truly crippling snow events are very rare. Maybe twice a winter most places close up early ahead of a snow event and are back to normal the next morning.

The morning after Chicago received ten inches of snow one time, I was driven to O'Hare on mostly-clear roads, and my plane left on time.

That's got to tell you something.
The morning after Chicago received ten inches of snow one time, I still had to go into the office.

After a combined twenty years in Georgia and DC, that was quite a shock.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: dlsterner on April 20, 2022, 12:13:34 AM
I think I will answer the question in my "Mr. Pedantic" mode ...

Q:  Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?

A:   It already has been!  In the approximately 1870-1890 era (give or take a few years), Chicago was indeed the 4th most populous US city, behind New York, Philadelphia, and Brooklyn (then an independent city)
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 20, 2022, 07:29:31 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 08:51:37 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:51 PM
I can't speak for Chicago, but for MSP, truly crippling snow events are very rare. Maybe twice a winter most places close up early ahead of a snow event and are back to normal the next morning.

The morning after Chicago received ten inches of snow one time, I was driven to O'Hare on mostly-clear roads, and my plane left on time.

That's got to tell you something.

That you weren't near an L station.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: ZLoth on April 20, 2022, 08:04:21 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 06:01:13 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 05:04:16 PM
I mean, Dallas rarely has blizzards and never has hurricanes, so...

OTOH, the blizzards that do happen completely cripple Dallas.

What is this "blizzards" that you speak of here in Dallas? Only blizzards in the DFW area are at Dairy Queen.

It is normal for the northern half of DFW to get a dusting of snow maybe once per winter, and usually it's gone by noontime. However, we had the "Extreme Weather Event" that had a significant accumulation of snow across Texas the week of February 14th, 2021 that shut down most of Texas for about a week, and the "Wimpy Son" that occurred February 22-23rd of this year. In both cases, there were significant accumulations that didn't melt away. Such accumulations would be nothing to the northern states where snow is expected. But, for Texas, the buildings and supporting infrastructure are designed for the summer heat and high winds expected of Texas with the possibility of large-sized hail and possibly a tornado. Chicago-type winters is not an expected weather condition, so the only snow plows are found at the DFW International and Dallas Love Field which serve as the hub airports for American Airlines and Southwest airlines. It would not be fiscally responsible for the cities around here to have snow plows or salt reserves that may be used only once per decade.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 20, 2022, 10:19:13 AM
Quote from: ZLoth on April 20, 2022, 08:04:21 AM
What is this "blizzards" that you speak of here in Dallas? Only blizzards in the DFW area are at Dairy Queen.

Perhaps "blizzards" wasn't the right word.

Quote from: kphoger on February 18, 2021, 10:00:18 AM

Quote from: allniter89 on February 17, 2021, 10:59:02 PM
In 2014

Ah yes, how quickly we forget...

(https://i.imgur.com/mjB7j1T.png)
http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/2013/12/u-s-freeze-shows-no-sign-of-weekend-melt-after-deadly-storm-read/icy-weather-5/
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 20, 2022, 10:42:08 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 20, 2022, 07:29:31 AM

Quote from: kphoger on April 19, 2022, 08:51:37 PM

Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on April 19, 2022, 07:44:51 PM
I can't speak for Chicago, but for MSP, truly crippling snow events are very rare. Maybe twice a winter most places close up early ahead of a snow event and are back to normal the next morning.

The morning after Chicago received ten inches of snow one time, I was driven to O'Hare on mostly-clear roads, and my plane left on time.

That's got to tell you something.

That you weren't near an L station.

Correct.  I was living near President Street & Geneva Road in Wheaton at the time.  Only a 1½-mile walk from a Metra station, but a week-end schedule on public transit from there to O'Hare wasn't the most convenient–besides, they had offered to drive me anyway.

On future trips, I also did the following combinations from Wheaton:

(1)  take Metra to Bellwood, walk up the stairs that used to exist (https://goo.gl/maps/Vvhs1JtiVoByE4vv6) to the Mannheim overpass, cross over the Proviso freight yard, grab a greasy spoon bite at the Deluxe Grill (no longer in business), catch Pace bus 330 (back when it served O'Hare directly) up Mannheim to the airport

(2)  catch Pace bus 747 (back when it existed) along Roosevelt Road to the mall at Oak Brook Center, catch Pace bus 322 from there to the 54th/Cermak CTA station, then ride the entire Blue Line to O'Hare (back when that branch was still part of the Blue Line)

Neither of those would have been particularly convenient with luggage and/or a small child, especially in the snow.  And both took me through a somewhat-sketchy neighborhood.

I don't think I ever took Metra to Oak Park, then the Green Line at Harlem/Lake, then the Blue Line at Clark/Lake.  The one time I considered that, I cheaped out and did (2) above instead.

However, I have gone to Midway by taking Metra to Oak Park, then the Green Line from Harlem/Lake to Cicero, then CTA bus 54 to 47th, then CTA bus 54B from there to Midway.  My memory is kind of fuzzy, but I think that ended up being more convenient than the Orange Line due to the early Sunday morning schedules.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: NWI_Irish96 on April 20, 2022, 11:38:24 AM
Quote from: kphoger on April 20, 2022, 10:42:08 AM

(2)  catch Pace bus 747 (back when it existed) along Roosevelt Road to the mall at Oak Brook Center, catch Pace bus 322 from there to the 54th/Cermak CTA station, then ride the entire Blue Line to O'Hare (back when that branch was still part of the Blue Line)


I have ridden the 322. When I lived at Harlem/Madison and worked at Cermak between Wolf and 294, the 307/322 combo was something I had to use when my car was in the shop.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 20, 2022, 11:54:39 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 20, 2022, 11:38:24 AM

Quote from: kphoger on April 20, 2022, 10:42:08 AM
(2)  catch Pace bus 747 (back when it existed) along Roosevelt Road to the mall at Oak Brook Center, catch Pace bus 322 from there to the 54th/Cermak CTA station, then ride the entire Blue Line to O'Hare (back when that branch was still part of the Blue Line)

I have ridden the 322. When I lived at Harlem/Madison and worked at Cermak between Wolf and 294, the 307/322 combo was something I had to use when my car was in the shop.

When I lived in Wheaton but had weekly orchestra rehearsals at Harlem & Augusta, I used to take the 747 along Roosevelt all the way from Blanchard Street to the Forest Park blue line station, then transfer to the 307 up Harlem.  Let me tell you, those nearly-14 miles of Roosevelt Road seemed to take for–ev–er.  I'd pop a CD in my player, put on my headphones, and sometimes the whole album was over before we arrived to the transfer.

Hey, did you ever eat at Submarine Tender?  Butter garlic fries?  (We used to call it BG fries at Sub T's.)
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: CoreySamson on April 20, 2022, 12:00:28 PM
As for my two cents, I don't think Houston proper will ever overcome Chicago in terms of population unless Chicago's population nosedives or the city of Houston goes on an annexing spree. Metro area possibly (but DFW will do that first). Harris County lost population from 2020-2021 while the suburbs grew massively, and think that trend will only continue. Houston proper won't grow much more for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Road Hog on April 20, 2022, 07:38:15 PM
The DFW metro area is adding about 150,000 new residents a year while Chicagoland is mostly static. Since DFW is only 1.8 million behind, I expect the Metroplex to pass Chicago by 2035.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: jgb191 on April 23, 2022, 04:56:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 

So you're saying that snowfall will cause a shut-down even as far north as Oklahoma?  I know people from Stratford and Spearman, Texas saying that a couple of inches of snow isn't quite enough to slow down those towns, that many people will still drive on it (albeit very gingerly).

And I don't think there is any need for me to say what little it takes to shut down my area of Texas, but for those that still wonder: all it takes is temperatures simply approaching the freezing mark (no snow or ice required).
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Bruce on April 23, 2022, 05:12:35 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 23, 2022, 04:56:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 

So you're saying that snowfall will cause a shut-down even as far north as Oklahoma?  I know people from Stratford and Spearman, Texas saying that a couple of inches of snow isn't quite enough to slow down those towns, that many people will still drive on it (albeit very gingerly).

And I don't think there is any need for me to say what little it takes to shut down my area of Texas, but for those that still wonder: all it takes is temperatures simply approaching the freezing mark (no snow or ice required).

Anything over a few inches is enough to shut down Seattle and Vancouver. Though our situation is made much worse by the wet snow that re-freezes over and over, on top of being stuck to hills.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Brandon on April 23, 2022, 05:45:07 AM
Quote from: Bruce on April 23, 2022, 05:12:35 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 23, 2022, 04:56:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 

So you're saying that snowfall will cause a shut-down even as far north as Oklahoma?  I know people from Stratford and Spearman, Texas saying that a couple of inches of snow isn't quite enough to slow down those towns, that many people will still drive on it (albeit very gingerly).

And I don't think there is any need for me to say what little it takes to shut down my area of Texas, but for those that still wonder: all it takes is temperatures simply approaching the freezing mark (no snow or ice required).

Anything over a few inches is enough to shut down Seattle and Vancouver. Though our situation is made much worse by the wet snow that re-freezes over and over, on top of being stuck to hills.

Which can be dealt with.  Houghton and Hancock, Michigan are on steep hills, and they get 200+ inches of snow per year, yet they manage to never actually shut down during any point during the winter.


The guy in the video stays to some of the slighter declines and inclines, but you'll get the idea.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Rothman on April 23, 2022, 07:45:23 AM
Quote from: Brandon on April 23, 2022, 05:45:07 AM
Quote from: Bruce on April 23, 2022, 05:12:35 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 23, 2022, 04:56:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 

So you're saying that snowfall will cause a shut-down even as far north as Oklahoma?  I know people from Stratford and Spearman, Texas saying that a couple of inches of snow isn't quite enough to slow down those towns, that many people will still drive on it (albeit very gingerly).

And I don't think there is any need for me to say what little it takes to shut down my area of Texas, but for those that still wonder: all it takes is temperatures simply approaching the freezing mark (no snow or ice required).

Anything over a few inches is enough to shut down Seattle and Vancouver. Though our situation is made much worse by the wet snow that re-freezes over and over, on top of being stuck to hills.

Which can be dealt with.  Houghton and Hancock, Michigan are on steep hills, and they get 200+ inches of snow per year, yet they manage to never actually shut down during any point during the winter.


The guy in the video stays to some of the slighter declines and inclines, but you'll get the idea.
See also Duluth.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kkt on April 23, 2022, 01:57:52 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 23, 2022, 05:45:07 AM
Quote from: Bruce on April 23, 2022, 05:12:35 AM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 23, 2022, 04:56:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 

So you're saying that snowfall will cause a shut-down even as far north as Oklahoma?  I know people from Stratford and Spearman, Texas saying that a couple of inches of snow isn't quite enough to slow down those towns, that many people will still drive on it (albeit very gingerly).

And I don't think there is any need for me to say what little it takes to shut down my area of Texas, but for those that still wonder: all it takes is temperatures simply approaching the freezing mark (no snow or ice required).

Anything over a few inches is enough to shut down Seattle and Vancouver. Though our situation is made much worse by the wet snow that re-freezes over and over, on top of being stuck to hills.

Which can be dealt with.  Houghton and Hancock, Michigan are on steep hills, and they get 200+ inches of snow per year, yet they manage to never actually shut down during any point during the winter.


The guy in the video stays to some of the slighter declines and inclines, but you'll get the idea.

But Michigan gets a buttload of snow every winter, so it's worth preparing for.  Seattle gets a little bit of snow every two or three winters, so it's less worthwhile having lots of plows and de-icer.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Max Rockatansky on April 23, 2022, 02:02:27 PM
In Chicago they don't need to worry about snow.  Since the entirety of Illinois is so flat (including Chicago) even an Entenmann's truck could do multiple spins in accumulated snow and not hit anything.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Scott5114 on April 23, 2022, 04:16:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 23, 2022, 04:56:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 

So you're saying that snowfall will cause a shut-down even as far north as Oklahoma?  I know people from Stratford and Spearman, Texas saying that a couple of inches of snow isn't quite enough to slow down those towns, that many people will still drive on it (albeit very gingerly).

It sort of varies on a person-to-person level. Some people (often the ones that own larger vehicles or who grew up further north) are gung-ho about going out in it. Other people aren't so much, especially those who live on back roads that are far enough off the grid that they don't ever get plowed. My parents grew up in Kansas City, so they're able to go out on it and be fine, but in practice they choose not to because they don't trust anyone else to be as competent behind the wheel as they are.

Bread-and-milk behavior is commonplace. Whether there is general amnesty for missing work because of inclement weather varies greatly from business to business. At my last job, they would stay open come hell or high water, and would count on a certain number of employees getting stuck there to conduct business operations (it would vary from event to event whether staying home would get you in trouble or not). My wife works at a different business in the same industry and they just close when it snows.

Personally, I'm content having the excuse to take a vacation day or two in the middle of winter, which I couldn't do if I lived further north.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: formulanone on April 23, 2022, 04:59:27 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 23, 2022, 04:16:24 PM
Quote from: jgb191 on April 23, 2022, 04:56:00 AM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 19, 2022, 08:17:09 PM
That's true. Perhaps, then, the ideal is something like Oklahoma City, which gets snow about once or twice a year at most, which is enough to justify having the infrastructure to handle it (plows, salt trucks, winterized power grid, etc.) but not often enough that there's a cultural expectation you have to keep carrying on your day-to-day routine when it snows. 

So you're saying that snowfall will cause a shut-down even as far north as Oklahoma?  I know people from Stratford and Spearman, Texas saying that a couple of inches of snow isn't quite enough to slow down those towns, that many people will still drive on it (albeit very gingerly).

It sort of varies on a person-to-person level. Some people (often the ones that own larger vehicles or who grew up further north) are gung-ho about going out in it. Other people aren't so much, especially those who live on back roads that are far enough off the grid that they don't ever get plowed. My parents grew up in Kansas City, so they're able to go out on it and be fine, but in practice they choose not to because they don't trust anyone else to be as competent behind the wheel as they are.

Bread-and-milk behavior is commonplace. Whether there is general amnesty for missing work because of inclement weather varies greatly from business to business. At my last job, they would stay open come hell or high water, and would count on a certain number of employees getting stuck there to conduct business operations (it would vary from event to event whether staying home would get you in trouble or not). My wife works at a different business in the same industry and they just close when it snows.

Personally, I'm content having the excuse to take a vacation day or two in the middle of winter, which I couldn't do if I lived further north.

I was in Tulsa during the snow/ice storm of February 2021; there was nothing do be done with treating icy roads for several days. I'd guess that about only half the traffic showed up to the work site we were at that week. Luckily the commute was close and there was a grocery store and a Hideaway Pizza within walking distances (slippery conditions did not stop me from grabbing a Pollinator).

Basically, it seemed they could deal with the conditions about as well as most cities in the Deep South would have handled it...
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: Road Hog on April 23, 2022, 09:32:32 PM
We have a winter weather plan at my work based on who can make it in the morning (4WD or FWD vehicles, closeness to work, etc). Had to use it twice this winter but no worries.
Title: Re: Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?
Post by: kphoger on April 25, 2022, 09:38:49 AM
I work in cable.  Winter storm days are our busiest days.

My first day of work here, there had been a bad ice storm the night before.  I wasn't sure if I should come in or not–if the place would be open or not.  So I decided to come in, to be on the safe side on my first day of work.  Lo and behold! the place was absolutely crawling with activity.  Missing work here due to snowy conditions would be almost like not coming in to drive snowplow due to snowy conditions.