The New York Post has an article about a new skyscraper proposed to be built in Oklahoma City: https://nypost.com/2024/04/17/real-estate/oklahoma-city-residents-question-the-planned-legends-tower/. It would be the tallest tower in the United States. I think it would be a monstrosity that would be better suited for being built in Chicago, Los Angeles or New York City.
Ugh. Tbought this forum was going to be immune from this nonsense. But, alas, the con man developer has now invaded whatever area of the Internet I frequent.
Not going to happen for the simple reason that OKC-area banks are notoriously risk-averse (there are virtually no five-over-ones in the OKC area because the banks consider it a risky, unproven venture despite them existing in practically every other US city). Non-OKC area banks generally don't like to invest in OKC-area projects because formulas used to calculate ROI elsewhere in the country don't return realistic results due to OKC's low density. (This is also why many national chains don't have locations in OKC.)
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 17, 2024, 08:05:25 PMNot going to happen for the simple reason that OKC-area banks are notoriously risk-averse (there are virtually no five-over-ones in the OKC area because the banks consider it a risky, unproven venture despite them existing in practically every other US city). Non-OKC area banks generally don't like to invest in OKC-area projects because formulas used to calculate ROI elsewhere in the country don't return realistic results due to OKC's low density. (This is also why many national chains don't have locations in OKC.)
Considering the cascading effects of the Penn Square Bank failure on the banking system back in 1982, those OKC-area banks are right to be risk-averse. Yes, while it may seem that sense in certain areas of the country may be short, it's not too bad to have memories that are long.
Sure, but the Penn Square bank failures had more to do with the oil industry than real estate.
It'll go the same way as the Chicago Spire (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Spire), which would've dwarfed One World Trade Center by some 200 feet and change.
With the commercial office space situation post-covid, I'd be stunned if there's another major skyscraper not already in the pipeline built in the next 20 years.
Quote from: The Ghostbuster on April 17, 2024, 03:47:47 PMI think it would be a monstrosity that would be better suited for being built in Chicago, Los Angeles or New York City.
Because those cities need or deserve monstrosities?
I agree with other posts, that unless OKC is vastly different from other cities, large office or residential buildings are seldom needed any more. GM is moving out of the RenCen in Detroit, and they don't know what the future will hold for those buildings. Just that it won't likely be office space, and they don't know if residential would be viable.
Quote from: Road Hog on April 23, 2024, 02:14:15 AMWith the commercial office space situation post-covid, I'd be stunned if there's another major skyscraper not already in the pipeline built in the next 20 years.
Pretty bold prediction honestly.
Hmm that proposed tower in Oklahoma City could have been in places like Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin and would have fit right in the skylines of those cities given how much those places are currently fighting to attract companies to have Downtown offices in those places.
Quote from: bing101 on May 04, 2024, 11:41:27 AMHmm that proposed tower in Oklahoma City could have been in places like Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin and would have fit right in the skylines of those cities given how much those places are currently fighting to attract companies to have Downtown offices in those places.
Fitting right in is a bug, not a feature. The big fish in Oklahoma City's small pond are treated very well.
Quote from: bing101 on May 04, 2024, 11:41:27 AMHmm that proposed tower in Oklahoma City could have been in places like Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin and would have fit right in the skylines of those cities given how much those places are currently fighting to attract companies to have Downtown offices in those places.
It's unlikely this thing gets built. But I will say. I don't agree with the mentality that oh, it doesn't fit in so it shouldn't be built. I've never understood that. I've never seen the issue of skyscrapers next to single family homes like what you'll see in LA and Houston. Nor do I see the issue of cities with small skylines getting a supertall. Personally I think it looks really cool.
Downtown OKC has tons of vacant areas that aren't even being used as parking lots. There is no way a skyscraper will pencil out.
Like that's stopped something like this from being done before.
Also let me clarify my position, I don't think it'll be built. I think there's a slim chance which is a lot more than what most people think, but ultimately I don't think it'll be built. I wish it would be built. I Would love for it to be built.
But at the end of the day, I'm just hoping the rest of the development gets built.
And I'll be surprised if that happens.
For anyone that doesn't know. This is the last phase of a multi phase development that will include a dream hotel. I'm skeptical anything gets built. This is oklahoma city, the king of value engineering.
I'm also eating popcorn at all. The people that are up in arms about this and don't understand that this thing has a very small chance of being built. It's absolutely hilarious. How much conversations this is generating which i'm sure is exactly what the developer wants.
Now in theory, let's think about what happens if this does get built. I wonder if that would set off some sort of a boom in other megatalls. And to me OKC Makes perfect sense for a developer compensating with an over small penis Because it has very low land cost and construction cost. I'm not exactly packing in Africa anaconda over here So if I wanted to show off how big my building was I Would pick a low density low cost city to build in like OKC.
This would be a vanity project. OKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
Land is too cheap in OKC for them to build something like this. There is not a market for $M townhomes. It just makes zero sense. It would make its mark in the vanity department until it was laughingly empty after it was completed.
Quote from: bwana39 on May 05, 2024, 09:32:42 PMThis would be a vanity project. OKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
Land is too cheap in OKC for them to build something like this. There is not a market for $M townhomes. It just makes zero sense. It would make its mark in the vanity department until it was laughingly empty after it was completed.
Exactly right. Skyscrapers normally are set up where land is at a premium because the cost gets very expensive the higher you go. The exception to this is for a person, government, etc which wants to make a statement building. For one, I would not want to work or live in a building that you could have a tornado warning and have to wait for the elevator to go down 50 floors. Of course, they have skyscrapers in LA, San Fran, and Seattle.
The tornado argument? Really? Lol
Quote from: bwana39 on May 05, 2024, 09:32:42 PMOKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
First time in OKC, eh?
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 06, 2024, 06:03:50 PMQuote from: bwana39 on May 05, 2024, 09:32:42 PMOKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
First time in OKC, eh?
I always cringe when I fly into the OKC Airport and see "You've arrived in a big league city" or something like that. It has pictures of a 50 story skyscraper, a pedestrian bridge, and some Asian guy cooking food.
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on May 06, 2024, 07:15:50 PMQuote from: Scott5114 on May 06, 2024, 06:03:50 PMQuote from: bwana39 on May 05, 2024, 09:32:42 PMOKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
First time in OKC, eh?
I always cringe when I fly into the OKC Airport and see "You've arrived in a big league city" or something like that. It has pictures of a 50 story skyscraper, a pedestrian bridge, and some Asian guy cooking food.
To be fair to OKC, this yearning to be taken as seriously as Dallas—they say "big league city" but it's clear they want to be Dallas, they never copy off of Kansas City—has produced some pretty big quality of life increases for the city. It's just a shame that the state of Oklahoma cuts them off at the knees at every available opportunity.
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 07, 2024, 06:04:02 PMQuote from: Plutonic Panda on May 06, 2024, 07:15:50 PMQuote from: Scott5114 on May 06, 2024, 06:03:50 PMQuote from: bwana39 on May 05, 2024, 09:32:42 PMOKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
First time in OKC, eh?
I always cringe when I fly into the OKC Airport and see "You've arrived in a big league city" or something like that. It has pictures of a 50 story skyscraper, a pedestrian bridge, and some Asian guy cooking food.
To be fair to OKC, this yearning to be taken as seriously as Dallas—they say "big league city" but it's clear they want to be Dallas, they never copy off of Kansas City—has produced some pretty big quality of life increases for the city. It's just a shame that the state of Oklahoma cuts them off at the knees at every available opportunity.
Oh I absolutely agree. OKC Has a lot to offer and it's a great city. I'm here right now and i'm enjoying it. I'm just not a big fan of their big league city slogan.
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on May 07, 2024, 06:46:36 PMQuote from: Scott5114 on May 07, 2024, 06:04:02 PMQuote from: Plutonic Panda on May 06, 2024, 07:15:50 PMQuote from: Scott5114 on May 06, 2024, 06:03:50 PMQuote from: bwana39 on May 05, 2024, 09:32:42 PMOKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
First time in OKC, eh?
I always cringe when I fly into the OKC Airport and see "You've arrived in a big league city" or something like that. It has pictures of a 50 story skyscraper, a pedestrian bridge, and some Asian guy cooking food.
To be fair to OKC, this yearning to be taken as seriously as Dallas—they say "big league city" but it's clear they want to be Dallas, they never copy off of Kansas City—has produced some pretty big quality of life increases for the city. It's just a shame that the state of Oklahoma cuts them off at the knees at every available opportunity.
Oh I absolutely agree. OKC Has a lot to offer and it's a great city. I'm here right now and i'm enjoying it. I'm just not a big fan of their big league city slogan.
I like OKC a lot too, I just couldn't stand living there.
I had David Payne on yesterday just for nostalgia's sake.
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 07, 2024, 06:56:52 PMQuote from: Plutonic Panda on May 07, 2024, 06:46:36 PMQuote from: Scott5114 on May 07, 2024, 06:04:02 PMQuote from: Plutonic Panda on May 06, 2024, 07:15:50 PMQuote from: Scott5114 on May 06, 2024, 06:03:50 PMQuote from: bwana39 on May 05, 2024, 09:32:42 PMOKC trying to say it is a world destination as opposed to a large city in a small state.
First time in OKC, eh?
I always cringe when I fly into the OKC Airport and see "You've arrived in a big league city" or something like that. It has pictures of a 50 story skyscraper, a pedestrian bridge, and some Asian guy cooking food.
To be fair to OKC, this yearning to be taken as seriously as Dallas—they say "big league city" but it's clear they want to be Dallas, they never copy off of Kansas City—has produced some pretty big quality of life increases for the city. It's just a shame that the state of Oklahoma cuts them off at the knees at every available opportunity.
Oh I absolutely agree. OKC Has a lot to offer and it's a great city. I'm here right now and i'm enjoying it. I'm just not a big fan of their big league city slogan.
I like OKC a lot too, I just couldn't stand living there.
I had David Payne on yesterday just for nostalgia's sake.
I was watching David Payne as well and it brought back memories. I miss Gary England and his "Friday night in the big town" reports. The news 9 chopper guy was hilarious last night.
Like others, I'm still skeptical the "Legends Tower" will be built out in its planned 1907 foot tall design height. The overall development seems kind of iffy. Developer Scot Matteson claims he has the financing in place to build the tower. The Oklahoma City Planning Commission gave approval to the project. It's almost like the city is calling Matteson's bluff just to see if he'll actually go through with it (and do so without going broke in the process). IIRC, I think even he has made statements on the order of the tower only getting built IF he lines up certain tenants before hand.
Regarding the comments about OKC's population density, traditional real estate market rules on that would apply if our real estate market was functioning normally. The situation now is completely absurd and unmoored from reality. So many residential properties are being used as investment objects rather than places to live. I think around a third of the tower is supposed to be residential apartments. It wouldn't be all that surprising if rich people in Oklahoma and outside the state (or outside the country) bought up all those living spaces. Having an apartment in the Legends Tower would just be another thing to add to the investment portfolio, not to mention bragging rights.
The office space situation might be the harder problem to solve. Plenty of businesses have soured on the remote work model. Still, vast improvements in Internet connection speeds and other changes in technology have made it far less necessary for an organization to rent office space at a premium in a high rise downtown tower. The office real estate vacancy situation in New York City is pretty bad. Office space in some buildings is being converted into apartments (high priced "luxury" apartments of course).
Even if all things in this project were given the go-ahead, I would be surprised if any construction started in the near future. High interest rates, stubborn inflation and the perception we're in one hell of a real estate price bubble would make it risky start construction on a project like this. The Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia halted construction in 2018 due to financial problems; construction resumed late in 2023.
Anybody know what skyscraper replaced the Alfred Murrah building (that was destroyed in 1995)?
According to 2022, Oklahoma City has almost 700K people, compared to Boston (650K), Las Vegas (660K), Washington (670K), Detroit (620K), Baltimore (570K), and Atlanta (497K).
Oklahoma City is larger than World-class cities like Detroit and Atlanta, so yeah I would believe you if you told me that OKC is a major city by now. Last time I was in OKC was almost a quarter-century ago, and surely it has grown by lots since this century began.
The site of the Murrah building is a memorial so the answer to your first question is 'none'.
OKC's city limits population is deceiving because it's geographically large. Better to look at its MSA population which is about 1.4 million making it the 42nd largest 'city' in the US.
Compare that to
Boston: 4.9 million
Las Vegas: 2.3 million
Washington: 6.3 million
Detroit: 4.3 million
Baltimore: 2.8 million
Atlanta: 6.3 million
So OKC is still a "small" city in this context.
Quote from: jgb191 on May 08, 2024, 03:47:33 PMOklahoma City is larger than World-class cities like Detroit and Atlanta
I think this is the first time in about 40 years someone has called Detroit "world-class".
Just as long as he doesn't manage to hoodwink the city out of TIF money with this nonsense.
Quote from: triplemultiplex on May 08, 2024, 04:06:35 PMThe site of the Murrah building is a memorial so the answer to your first question is 'none'.
A new federal building was built on a different site, though:
(https://i.imgur.com/hihPvTq.png) (https://www.google.com/maps/@35.4751947,-97.5177414,3a,75y,213.37h,92.94t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sbrdmUdHZ72pVjdMLqMPqLg!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DbrdmUdHZ72pVjdMLqMPqLg%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D17.60647%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu)
Not going to happen, just like that pie in the sky amusement park in Vinita. The sad thing is that the marks and drones on Facebook are eating it up and insisting it will be built and it will be a success. It won't be built because it doesn't make financial sense.
I'm still pretty suspicious about the whole project.
The only portions of it I would expect to see completed is the stuff they talk about in "Phase 1." A pair of 23 story towers, a 22 story Hyatt Dream Hotel and the ground-level Boardwalk at Bricktown stuff.
The 1907 foot tall skyscraper would be added later. But that's not something you just "add on" to an existing development. 1907 feet is just over one third of a mile tall. A skyscraper that tall would need one hell of a serious foundation. It would be a very delicate operation trying to excavate that in the midst of some brand new buildings.
And then there is the nature of the visual proposals. The skyscraper design looks pretty damned bland to me. The smaller buildings and stuff at ground level look kind of tacky. I can't help but feel a vibe the proposal was quickly thrown together. It's either that or some ego-driven money people made a bunch of design decisions and the architects tried hammering it out in whatever manner they could. The effort doesn't seem as professional as other major skyscraper projects elsewhere in the world.
Given the winds and weather in Oklahoma, I'm surprised the tall tower didn't incorporate a triangular profile shape like the Burj Khalifa in Dubai or Kingdom Tower in Jeddah. The tower proposed for OKC has a pretty flat looking profile that faces North-South. That's going to make for a great wind target. The same illustration they've been showing over and over again in news stories could very well be just some basic concept drawing Photoshopped into the OKC landscape. We may never see a final design that is stamped by a team of structural engineers.
Quote from: Bobby5280 on June 21, 2024, 12:09:18 PMThe 1907 foot tall skyscraper would be added later.
Like the Fisher Building in Detroit. It's one of 3 towers (30, 60 and 30 stories) originally planned. The Depression got in the way. 96 years later, it's still one 30-story building.
Saw that the Oklahoma City Skyline is getting it's first building to be as tall as One World Trade Center in New York.
Does OKC want to really compete with the big cities like this?
https://www.kosu.org/local-news/2024-05-28/plans-for-nations-tallest-building-would-transform-oklahoma-city-but-residents-are-skeptical
To put it mildly, there's a whole lot more that goes into being "like NYC" than just one skyscraper or even an entire skyline, many aspects of which OKC will never be able to compete with due to location alone.
skyscraper thread: https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=34751.0
Quote from: roadman65 on July 08, 2024, 10:41:25 AMDoes OKC want to really compete with the big cities like this?
First time in OKC, eh?
OKC is not exactly known for its bedrock like Manhattan is. Good luck with your Tower of Babbel. Maybe we'll understand you afterward.
Quote from: Road HogOKC is not exactly known for its bedrock like Manhattan is. Good luck with your Tower of Babbel. Maybe we'll understand you afterward.
Every place has bedrock. A high rise skyscraper's foundation (such as that of Devon Tower) just has to be dug deep enough to tie into it. The red clay soil in much of Oklahoma tends to make a bigger impact on things built at the surface. Slab foundations in schools, commercial buildings and big homes can be badly affected. Obviously streets and highways are vulnerable unless the grading work is done properly.
It's not like we have to worry about this nearly 2000' tower ever being built. I'm ever more convinced it's a pipe dream. The design of the tower is unremarkably bland looking, almost like it's a piece of architectural clip art quickly thrown together as a place holder for something more professional looking to be designed later.
I'm even a bit skeptical the smaller buildings and plaza closer to grade will get built at all. America's commercial real estate industry is looking like it's in very deep trouble. The same goes for the residential real estate market. Institutional property buyers have found themselves loaded down with properties they can't sell or rent out for the money they want. Property taxes and interest payments on the money they borrowed to buy that stuff could hit their balance sheets hard. That's not going to leave a lot of money left over to build things like an obnoxiously tall high rise tower in OKC.
Quote from: jgb191 on May 08, 2024, 03:47:33 PMAnybody know what skyscraper replaced the Alfred Murrah building (that was destroyed in 1995)?
According to 2022, Oklahoma City has almost 700K people, compared to Boston (650K), Las Vegas (660K), Washington (670K), Detroit (620K), Baltimore (570K), and Atlanta (497K).
Oklahoma City is larger than World-class cities like Detroit and Atlanta, so yeah I would believe you if you told me that OKC is a major city by now. Last time I was in OKC was almost a quarter-century ago, and surely it has grown by lots since this century began.
Dang Oklahoma City would have the same amount of people as Hempstead, NY and San Francisco if you are only counting city propers.
Quote from: bing101 on July 09, 2024, 01:14:30 PMQuote from: jgb191 on May 08, 2024, 03:47:33 PMAnybody know what skyscraper replaced the Alfred Murrah building (that was destroyed in 1995)?
According to 2022, Oklahoma City has almost 700K people, compared to Boston (650K), Las Vegas (660K), Washington (670K), Detroit (620K), Baltimore (570K), and Atlanta (497K).
Oklahoma City is larger than World-class cities like Detroit and Atlanta, so yeah I would believe you if you told me that OKC is a major city by now. Last time I was in OKC was almost a quarter-century ago, and surely it has grown by lots since this century began.
Dang Oklahoma City would have the same amount of people as Hempstead, NY and San Francisco if you are only counting city propers.
Its MSA is also considerably smaller than like-sized city propers.
It would be hard to find a pair of municipalities that would be more misleading to compare than Las Vegas proper and Oklahoma City proper, considering the City of Las Vegas famously doesn't include such things as the major economic engine driving the metropolitan area whereas Oklahoma City proper includes everything surrounding it that doesn't move and some things that do.
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 10, 2024, 10:56:05 AMIt would be hard to find a pair of municipalities that would be more misleading to compare than Las Vegas proper and Oklahoma City proper, considering the City of Las Vegas famously doesn't include such things as the major economic engine driving the metropolitan area whereas Oklahoma City proper includes everything surrounding it that doesn't move and some things that do.
True too.
Can't wait if they eventually build it and then all the windows get blown out by baseball size hail or a tornado.
Quote from: ET21 on July 18, 2024, 11:59:04 AMCan't wait if they eventually build it and then all the windows get blown out by baseball size hail or a tornado.
I was just thinking the same thing - "Then the EF 5 tornado hits . . . "
Mike
Is the tornado thing real or satire? Assuming this building gets built, how could this seriously be a concern? When was the last time downtown? Oklahoma City was directly struck by a tornado? Wasn't there a fairly tall building that was directly hit by a tornado in both Fort Worth and Waco and none of them fell down? I'm sure if this building is actually constructed with modern engineering it could take a direct hit and not collapse.
Out of all the things, one could think of why this building won't be constructed, People think tornadoes would be the reason why? Seriously?
Yeah the tornado thing is clearly tongue-in-cheek.
This building isn't going to happen because the market won't allow it to ever be profitable. End of analysis.
Well, you're probably right. This building won't happen but just because the market isn't therefore it doesn't mean it won't happen. It's not like vanity projects haven't been built before. If the developer has enough money and just wants to prove the world that he has a big penis then why wouldn't he build it?
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on July 22, 2024, 04:02:15 PMWell, you're probably right. This building won't happen but just because the market isn't therefore it doesn't mean it won't happen. It's not like vanity projects haven't been built before. If the developer has enough money and just wants to prove the world that he has a big penis then why wouldn't he build it?
The amount of money needed for a project like this normally exceeds the amount that's available to those who would spend it on vanity projects.
Also, the sorts of people who build vanity projects probably wouldn't put them in Oklahoma City of all places.
The usual locations for super tall skyscrapers to be built are growing ever less friendly to new ones being constructed.
In New York City building a new super tall tower would be an especially complicated and costly situation. The developer has to negotiate and buy up sky rights from surrounding property owners. He has to deal with lots of regulations and demands from the city government. Aside from the red tape, the island of Manhattan presents some very serious engineering challenges. There are layers upon layers of existing infrastructure going well underground. The island itself is slowly sinking, thanks in part to the sheer amount of stuff built on it. Construction costs are much higher, partly since living costs are so extremely high there. Add to that a worsening office real estate vacancy situation, floating around 20%.
Oklahoma City is a somewhat untapped market for skyscraper building. The OKC administration already gave its approval. Living costs in OKC aren't nearly as bad as they are in so many other cities across the nation (even cities in Texas).
While this developer might be gambling on attracting office space tenants from higher cost cities, I still don't think the financial math adds up on the entire effort. A nearly 2000' tall skyscraper in OKC just doesn't seem feasible. Especially now, with what's going on both residential and commercial real estate markets. Can't build something extreme like that in a market bubble that's fixing to pop (or starting to pop already).
Pfft. Have you been to Manhattan lately? Building boom, despite the obstacles.
Quote from: Bobby5280 on July 23, 2024, 01:14:45 PMThe OKC administration already gave its approval.
Let's be honest, it would be kind of hard to come up with a project the City of Oklahoma City
wouldn't give its approval to, especially if you're not asking for TIF money with it.
It would have to be something like a three hundred foot tall Satanic temple, topped by a one hundred foot tall statue of Baphomet, sporting an erection, wearing a Texas Longhorns hat and a T-shirt that says "I ♥ Proper Capitalization" and holding a sign that says "Gary England sucks", built in R1 zoning. And even that might get approved if you donate to the city council's re-election campaigns.
Quote from: RothmanPfft. Have you been to Manhattan lately? Building boom, despite the obstacles.
It can take several years or more for a skyscraper project to go from the drafting table to completion. The market downturn in office real estate is very real. The downturn just hasn't caught up to the backlog of construction projects yet.
The situation is bad enough that some of these developers could get wiped out and leave some skyscraper projects stuck, unable to finish construction. They all planned these buildings with the intention of collecting high lease/rent amounts to help pay off all the money they borrowed to fund their projects. That borrowed money comes with variable interest rates that re-adjust every few years, unlike the 30 year fixed rate mortgages individuals get when buying a home. With office vacancy rates in Manhattan hitting the 20% mark it doesn't exactly put a stable floor under those high lease/rent prices. The insane living costs in the Greater New York Area is forcing a lot of workers out of the region. A growing number of employers are following them.
Quote from: Scott5114Let's be honest, it would be kind of hard to come up with a project the City of Oklahoma City wouldn't give its approval to, especially if you're not asking for TIF money with it.
I still think the OKC city council gave its approval as a means of calling the developer's bluff. They're giving the guy enough rope to hang himself with.
Quote from: Bobby5280 on July 25, 2024, 11:00:57 AMQuote from: RothmanPfft. Have you been to Manhattan lately? Building boom, despite the obstacles.
It can take several years or more for a skyscraper project to go from the drafting table to completion. The market downturn in office real estate is very real. The downturn just hasn't caught up to the backlog of construction projects yet.
The situation is bad enough that some of these developers could get wiped out and leave some skyscraper projects stuck, unable to finish construction. They all planned these buildings with the intention of collecting high lease/rent amounts to help pay off all the money they borrowed to fund their projects. That borrowed money comes with variable interest rates that re-adjust every few years, unlike the 30 year fixed rate mortgages individuals get when buying a home. With office vacancy rates in Manhattan hitting the 20% mark it doesn't exactly put a stable floor under those high lease/rent prices. The insane living costs in the Greater New York Area is forcing a lot of workers out of the region. A growing number of employers are following them.
Although the office vacancy rate is a little intriguing, I don't find the exodus of residents and even employers to be very indicative of what is driving real estate on Manhattan. Little pieces of real estate in the sky have become mere investments for the far upper classes. As long as they trade them like poker chips, developers will build in Manhattan.
Here's the thing: investors can buy and trade real estate properties back and forth, cranking up prices to squeeze out profit for only so long. At some point down the road a business has to actually lease that office space to use it. Or someone has to buy that house to actually live in it. The property flipping can flip only so far before the situation devolves into totally not-justifiable bullshit. And that's where we are now: a completely insane, illogical price bubble.
Cities like NYC are great and all. But it's no longer necessary for a business to pay extreme prices just to have some office space there. I live in bum-f*** Lawton, OK yet I have four choices of extreme speed Internet access, three of which are fiber -all wired right there at my house. On top of that my mobile phone has insane connection speeds. Many functions of modern business are about communication and moving data. You don't have to locate in a giant city to do that anymore.
Various forces have tried hard to extend the life of this current real estate bubble. Scores of private equity companies have been buying up hundreds of thousands of residential homes (along with all sorts of other things like nursing homes). But they're creating a new "too big to fail" scenario. However, private equity companies are just private equity companies. They're not banks who control the flow of capital. They're trying to monopolize all the basics of just surviving. But the long term math is not on their side, especially when an ever-increasing number of young adults are saying no to having children and breeding a new generation of suckers into existence. In the long run these ass-hat investors are going to be stuck with huge inventories of properties they cannot sell. They'll be looking to "Uncle Sugar" for a bailout, but won't deserve a bailout at all.
The collapse of Evergrande in China is a pretty good warning sign of what we're asking for here in 'Murica. It's an extreme example, aided by a police state dictatorship. But the potential for unfinished skyscrapers to sit derelict and subdivisions of empty McMansions facing the bulldozers is very real.
Quote from: Scott5114 on July 25, 2024, 04:34:34 AMQuote from: Bobby5280 on July 23, 2024, 01:14:45 PMThe OKC administration already gave its approval.
Let's be honest, it would be kind of hard to come up with a project the City of Oklahoma City wouldn't give its approval to, especially if you're not asking for TIF money with it.
It would have to be something like a three hundred foot tall Satanic temple, topped by a one hundred foot tall statue of Baphomet, sporting an erection, wearing a Texas Longhorns hat and a T-shirt that says "I ♥ Proper Capitalization" and holding a sign that says "Gary England sucks", built in R1 zoning. And even that might get approved if you donate to the city council's re-election campaigns.
Mercifully, all financiers and bankers have to do nowadays is ask how much space is available right now in that college campus Chesapeake Energy built for itself, or that tower Devon Energy has downtown, and decline to finance this laughable tower. And all the TIF "money" that supposedly pro-development OKC could authorize will never change that.
Oklahoma City Airport (https://www.dezeen.com/2024/12/09/aviation-authority-concerns-legends-tower-oklahoma-city/) is now crying foul about the impact such a tall building will have on its operations. The guy who is proposing this is either incredibly naive about how real estate works or is pulling some kind of scam.
I'm still very skeptical the Legends Tower thing will ever happen. And that would be fine by me; I'm not fond at all of how it looks. The Devon Tower looks interesting. The Legends Tower design is pretty bland. Overall the proposal seems very risky given the situation with office tower vacancy rates in urban centers.
There is a big want from some business and government types to get all workers back to in-person office settings. I think remote work is here to stay to some degree. Too many businesses are saving too much money they'd otherwise pay on office rent costs to not use the work model. And then people in certain living situations can only work remotely, such as women who have kids at home and can't afford crushing day care costs. They would quit their jobs if forced to "RTO."
It is surprising any civilian airport administrators would be complaining about the Legends Tower project. Do any flight paths from Will Rogers Airport or Wiley Post actually go over the downtown district in OKC? The main runways at both airports point North-South. And the diagonal runways appear to point away from downtown.
I could imagine officials at Tinker AFB raising concerns. One its runways does point diagonally toward the downtown area, but the main runway points North-South.
Quote from: Bobby5280 on December 10, 2024, 10:08:55 PMI'm still very skeptical the Legends Tower thing will ever happen. And that would be fine by me; I'm not fond at all of how it looks. The Devon Tower looks interesting. The Legends Tower design is pretty bland. Overall the proposal seems very risky given the situation with office tower vacancy rates in urban centers.
There is a big want from some business and government types to get all workers back to in-person office settings. I think remote work is here to stay to some degree. Too many businesses are saving too much money they'd otherwise pay on office rent costs to not use the work model. And then people in certain living situations can only work remotely, such as women who have kids at home and can't afford crushing day care costs. They would quit their jobs if forced to "RTO."
It is surprising any civilian airport administrators would be complaining about the Legends Tower project. Do any flight paths from Will Rogers Airport or Wiley Post actually go over the downtown district in OKC? The main runways at both airports point North-South. And the diagonal runways appear to point away from downtown.
I could imagine officials at Tinker AFB raising concerns. One its runways does point diagonally toward the downtown area, but the main runway points North-South.
It's not only about interairport flight paths, but associated published procedures with every airport in the area.
The real estate industry is filled with broken promises. Sometimes it's from excess optimism and other times it's wire fraud.
Quote from: Bobby5280 on December 10, 2024, 10:08:55 PMAnd then people in certain living situations can only work remotely, such as women who have kids at home and can't afford crushing day care costs. They would quit their jobs if forced to "RTO."
As someone who took care of an infant while working remotely, it doesn't quite work that way. You need day care to be able to actually do your job and you're still going to pay the ~$20k a year it costs because otherwise you can't get anything done. I made it as long as I could, very much benefitting having a job without a lot of time sensitivity. But just because you have a kid, doesn't make remote work "easy to do" where you get to save on day care.
I love working remote. It doesn't just save you the time of commuting, but also putting on work clothes, packing a lunch, and then walking from the parking lot to your desk.
And in the near future, VR/AR should make it possible to create an office environment in cyberspace, complete with watercooler chats.