AARoads Forum

I had this thought as I was driving out to go camping and when I exited onto CO91 from I-70, I realized that, unless you're just going skiing at Copper Mountain, almost everyone that takes CO91 probably goes all the way to Leadville since there aren't any cities and are very few businesses and/or residences along the way. So, I started thinking about which routes are most likely to be clinched (in one shot) by any traveler that travels on the highway and then the opposite of that as well - which routes are least likely to be traveled straight through by anyone.

The "rules":

For a route to be considered, the amount of people that drive on that highway is irrelevant. We're talking about the highest percentage of travelers of that route clinching it when driving it. Remote routes might not be driven often, but if you do travel it, are you likely to clinch the whole thing?

For most likely to be clinched, the route has to be over 20 miles long. Obviously highways that are glorified off ramps are super easy to clinch, so we're not going to count those. If you have a few options that you think are similar, select the longest route.

For least likely to be clinched, you can probably think of a bunch of weird routings, etc. where almost no one would do the whole route in one fell swoop, so if that's the case, pick the shortest route where you believe that to be the case.

My examples from Colorado:

Most Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-76 (184.14 miles) - There are a decent amount of travelers either heading to the mountains or just generally to the southwest from Nebraska and I-80. The stretch west of I-25 is probably the part that would stop some from clinching the whole thing, but there aren't exactly a ton of population centers along I-76 that are "destinations" for people driving I-76.

US Highway: US350 (72.718 miles) - A rural route for sure, but there are basically no settlements of any size along the way. Yes, there's some farm traffic, but this route is largely for La Junta or Western Kansas to New Mexico traffic.

State Highway: CO139 (72.07 miles) - Another rural route that heads out of the general Grand Junction area and heads north to pretty sparsely populated northwestern Colorado. There are zero cities/CDPs along the route and it doesn't intersect any other numbered routes along the way. There aren't that many recreational spots either outside of Douglas Pass. If you take this route, you're probably "going elsewhere".

Least Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-25 (298.87 miles) - There aren't a ton of people in New Mexico nor Wyoming. There are a ton of people along the I-25 corridor in Colorado. The highway really doesn't represent a big freight route between cities of any particular size on either end (El Paso to Billings?).

US Highway: US138 (59.823 miles) - It's a very redundant route to I-76. This route is primarily for farm traffic and between a few of the cities along the South Platte up in NE Colorado. Many other US highways are really hard (or impossible!) to travel straight through in Colorado, but US138 is the shortest.

State Highway: CO300 (3.356 miles) - This highway is to serve the Leadville Fish Hatchery, but extends past it to some homes north of the hatchery and kind of doubles back on itself. At the northern end, if you wanted to get to Leadville or to go south on US24, it would be faster not to take CO300 around.

Most likely here in California would be I-205.  It is a short Interstate that is often the intuitive route towards the Bay Area from several directions.  The least likely would be some of the hyper rural one lane highways like CA 172, CA 229 or even CA 169.   

CA 173 and CA 39 would probably even top those given you literally have to hike the closed segments if you want a clinch.  Normal people don't go for clinching much less exploring strange remote areas.

MN

Most likely
I-694 - MSP bypass
US 8 - popular cabin route into Wisconsin
TH 371 - also a major cabin country route, but goes point to point with no extraneous miles like most qualifying state routes

Least likely
I-35 - because most people probably came from the east or west, there's no reason for most people to take this route both ways out of MSP
US 69 - odd origin point in Albert Lea, redundant to both I-35 and US 65
TH 77 - continues a couple miles past its last major traffic shift point at I-35E

Quote from: TheHighwayMan3561 on August 19, 2024, 12:14:54 PMMN

US 69 - odd origin point in Albert Lea, redundant to both I-35 and US 65

I think if you happen to make it onto US69 in Minnesota though, you're likely clinching it. There's not much along the route during those 12 miles.

For Minnesota, I'd probably pick US63. I've never clinched it despite spending A LOT of time in southeastern Minnesota, since there are some logical places to leave the route (I-90, Rochester, Lake City, etc.) and not that much immediately on the other side of the Wisconsin and Iowa borders respectively.

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 19, 2024, 12:26:20 PM

Quote from: TheHighwayMan3561 on August 19, 2024, 12:14:54 PMMN

US 69 - odd origin point in Albert Lea, redundant to both I-35 and US 65

I think if you happen to make it onto US69 in Minnesota though, you're likely clinching it. There's not much along the route during those 12 miles.

For Minnesota, I'd probably pick US63. I've never clinched it despite spending A LOT of time in southeastern Minnesota, since there are some logical places to leave the route (I-90, Rochester, Lake City, etc.) and not that much immediately on the other side of the Wisconsin and Iowa borders respectively.

Yeah, that makes sense. It took me a very deliberate attempt to finish US 63. It also has the two TOTSOs from TH 16 in/around Spring Valley and the E-W jog to get from its old alignment to US 52 on Rochester's north side when it was taken off Broadway Avenue  Maps actually recommends CSAH 1 between Spring Valley and Rochester.

For starters I guess I am confused by the 20-mile threshold. A route that is both over 20 miles and easy to casually clinch (not just drive) for a high percentage of users strikes me as very rare.

A few routes that immediately come to mind in my area are I-590, NY 590, NY 531, and NY 204... but they're all under 20 miles. Also routes like NY 318, NY 104B, NY 180... again, all under 20 miles.

The only candidate I can think of that's over 20 miles is NY 31A (23 miles) and even that's kind of obscure for all but a certain subset of long-distance traffic in the region.

In PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.

Least likely for MA would probably be MA 140. There's nothing that's hard to get (other than paralleling freeways), but its overlaps with MA 2 and I-495 mean a whole bunch of people have traveled some of it even if they never intended to be on 140, decreasing the ratio.

With 20 miles being the benchmark, Indiana would definitely be I-94. For state routes, I would guess either the northern IN 11 or the western IN 4.

Least likely would have been IN 111 before the very remote section got truncated, so now it's probably IN 166.

Most likely: I-95, US 13, MD 404

Least likely: I-695, US 40, MD 5

Percentage of travelers that clinch the route if they go on it? 

Meh.  How speculative.

Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMFor starters I guess I am confused by the 20-mile threshold. A route that is both over 20 miles and easy to casually clinch (not just drive) for a high percentage of users strikes me as very rare.

Think of it this way. If you travel on I-189, are you ever NOT clinching that? Of course not. Short routes aren't an interesting discussion for that topic. My original example of CO91 is a much longer route, but when you look at what's along the way as opposed to the termini, you realize that there's almost nothing to turn off onto nor stop at along the way, so once you start, you're almost always finishing the route. Hopefully that makes sense.

Quote from: Rothman on August 19, 2024, 01:47:06 PMPercentage of travelers that clinch the route if they go on it? 

Meh.  How speculative.

I believe you have the imagination required.

Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMIn PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.

Huh, I thought I-88 would be a great match. There's not much along the route, so I figured many travellers would drive the full length.

My opinion for Ontario:

Most likely: 37, 69, 108, 138, 402, 416

Least likely: 3, 6, 7, 11, 62, 401, 403, 407, 417

Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMFor starters I guess I am confused by the 20-mile threshold. A route that is both over 20 miles and easy to casually clinch (not just drive) for a high percentage of users strikes me as very rare.

A few routes that immediately come to mind in my area are I-590, NY 590, NY 531, and NY 204... but they're all under 20 miles. Also routes like NY 318, NY 104B, NY 180... again, all under 20 miles.

The only candidate I can think of that's over 20 miles is NY 31A (23 miles) and even that's kind of obscure for all but a certain subset of long-distance traffic in the region.

In PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.

It's percentage of travelers on the route, not in the state.  The people who never travel on NY 31A at all do not count for this thread.  So yes, I-88 is a great candidate; the primary driver of traffic is Binghamton-Albany, not Oneonta.  The only thing that gives me pause is the traffic between Rotterdam off exit 25 (suburbs, truck stops, and distribution centers/industry) and the Thruway.

For least, I would think odd-shaped routes like NY 8, NY 9N, or NY 28.

For Kentucky, the most likely would be either I-24 or I-71.

Least likely? Any number of them, but I'll nominate the two long cross-state routes US 60 and KY 80.

Nevada:

For most likely I'd go with SR 318, the 111-mile north-south connector between US 6 and US 93 that shaves about 40 miles off the Ely to Las Vegas trip vs. staying on US 93 the whole way.  It's also a high-speed road, the one that's used for the "Silver State Classic Challenge" (the highway is closed to the public and the race entrants see how fast they can make the trip; of the 90 miles of it used for the race the record average speed is over 219 mph).  AADT is in the vicinity of 1700 near both ends of it and just about all of those have to be the same 1700 vehicles.

The caveat is that one must drive a very short segment of SR 318, less than 0.5 mile at the south end, to access SR 375, the "Extraterrestrial Highway", from US 93.  But AADT on SR 375 just west of SR 318 is only in the 300 range.

The one that comes to mind as least likely is I-15.  Yes there are trucks going straight through that don't stop in Vegas, but how much of the traffic is coming from Southern California (mostly) and Utah (partly) with Vegas as the destination?

For Washington, it's probably I-405. Starts close to the largest airport (Sea-Tac) and is a genuinely useful bypass (when it's not clogged) and serves a decent number of potential destinations.

For Connecticut:

most likely might be I-395. Driving from CT central coast to NH/Maine, you can avoid Hartford and Boston with some early pain I-95. Once you turn north on 395, it's less than an hour to Massachusetts. 54.69 miles.

Other interstates are too short, or have too many destinations along the way.

least likely: maybe CT 148. It has a ferry crossing only 5 miles from a bridge (CT 82). The scenic value and local convenience of the ferry might not intersect with people driving all the way to Durham on back roads. 16.35 miles.

Quote from: epzik8 on August 19, 2024, 01:36:43 PMMost likely: I-95, US 13, MD 404

Least likely: I-695, US 40, MD 5

Nice choices, but I may have to respectfully disagree on one:

MD 404 - Certainly the part from US 50 to the Delaware border - but there is also a small piece west of US 50 going to Wye Mills that many people will miss.

For least likely - I agree with US 40.  I think US 50 could be added if you include both its main (eastern) segment and its western segment near Red House MD as a single route.  MD 2 would be a reasonable choice as well.

For most likely - I-68 seems like one of those that "if you are getting part of it, you might be likely getting all of it".  I would also consider I-97 except for it being a tad shorter than the somewhat arbitrary length set by the OP.

If you allow me to choose for a former home state (Florida)  I think US 98 would be in the running for "least likely".

Completely?

I-40
I-30
I-20.
I-45.

Probably none of the US Highways particularly. I-10 is not that likely for " travellers" as opposed to truckers.

Quote from: kurumi on August 19, 2024, 10:00:29 PMFor Connecticut:

most likely might be I-395. Driving from CT central coast to NH/Maine, you can avoid Hartford and Boston with some early pain I-95. Once you turn north on 395, it's less than an hour to Massachusetts. 54.69 miles.

Other interstates are too short, or have too many destinations along the way.

least likely: maybe CT 148. It has a ferry crossing only 5 miles from a bridge (CT 82). The scenic value and local convenience of the ferry might not intersect with people driving all the way to Durham on back roads. 16.35 miles.

The 20-mile thing makes it tough for CT.  You may be right with 395, but a lot of its traffic gets off at the casinos.  All of the through trucks and out-of-state cars on I-84 might make it a contender.

For least likely, there are lots of possibilities.  There's the ferry routes, as you mentioned.  I can't imagine too many people have the patience to clinch the 115.76 miles of US1 in CT in one shot.  CT20 is another option (30.42 mi.), since very few vehicles go around the north side of Barkhamsted Reservoir through Hartland, but plenty use the Bradley Connector to I-91.  It would also be pretty strange to drive CT154 (27.77 mi.) or CT156 (22.21 mi.) from end to end.

For a really short route, how about the 3.65-mile CT286?  I've read on your nycroads site about the renumbering from 140 and 140A in the 1960s.  Nowadays there's little reason to follow Main and Pinney Streets between the endpoints of 286, since Lower Butcher Rd. and Windermere Ave. no longer have the one-lane bridges and most cars transfer between 286 and 140 one way or the other anyway.

Quote from: dlsterner on August 19, 2024, 10:23:23 PMNice choices, but I may have to respectfully disagree on one:

MD 404 - Certainly the part from US 50 to the Delaware border - but there is also a small piece west of US 50 going to Wye Mills that many people will miss.

PA 283 has the same issue with that little piece west of I-283 to Eisenhower Blvd.

I-90 in PA feels like a good candidate for this thread basically by default for those traveling between NY and OH.  A few will exit/enter at I-86, but probably not that many.

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 19, 2024, 11:32:15 AMThe "rules":

For a route to be considered, the amount of people that drive on that highway is irrelevant. We're talking about the highest percentage of travelers of that route clinching it when driving it. Remote routes might not be driven often, but if you do travel it, are you likely to clinch the whole thing?

For most likely to be clinched, the route has to be over 20 miles long. Obviously highways that are glorified off ramps are super easy to clinch, so we're not going to count those. If you have a few options that you think are similar, select the longest route.

For least likely to be clinched, you can probably think of a bunch of weird routings, etc. where almost no one would do the whole route in one fell swoop, so if that's the case, pick the shortest route where you believe that to be the case.

My CT contribution:

With the 20-mile criterion, I-395.  The natural flow of people using the I-95/I-91/I-84 corridor to travel between the Boston area and the NYC area excludes those highways.

Without the 20-mile criterion, there'd be an obvious winner:  I-684.  :D

For least-likely to be clinched, the two obvious answers would be CT15 and CT20.  The non-freeway portions of Route 15 are primarily for local traffic.  For Route 20...the volume of traffic traveling the entire length is almost certainly insignificant as compared to the volume of traffic using part of Route 20 to access the airport (BDL).

Quote from: 7/8 on August 19, 2024, 01:48:28 PM

Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMIn PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.

Huh, I thought I-88 would be a great match. There's not much along the route, so I figured many travellers would drive the full length.

I suppose it fits the spirit of the thread, as it is true that it connects two decent sized population centers and there isn't much along the route, but also seemed kind of long distance for an easy clinch while also being fairly vanilla due to its interstate route status.

Quote from: vdeane on August 19, 2024, 02:25:48 PMIt's percentage of travelers on the route, not in the state.  The people who never travel on NY 31A at all do not count for this thread.  So yes, I-88 is a great candidate; the primary driver of traffic is Binghamton-Albany, not Oneonta.  The only thing that gives me pause is the traffic between Rotterdam off exit 25 (suburbs, truck stops, and distribution centers/industry) and the Thruway.

I think 'great' is a stretch for I-88 because (a) it's long enough that there are quite a few intersecting corridors where short and medium distance traffic could feasibly enter and leave the route (think Binghamton-Utica and Cortland-Albany), and (b) it's just not that well suited to use by long-distance traffic from the rest of NY state, or really anywhere besides Binghamton to the Albany area. Anything outside of that would typically use I-90 (e.g. Cleveland-Albany) or I-87/I-84 (e.g. Scranton-Albany). I-88 is awkward for the rest of upstate in particular: I've had to go out of the way to use I-88 at all and even then it's fragmented bits and pieces that I've managed to fit into larger (usually northwest/southeast oriented) trips.

So even looking at percentage of long-distance travelers on the route, I'd think the Thruway and I-81 have a significantly higher percentage than I-88 because those routes are appealing to a much broader range of trip endpoints while having similar (or in the case of the Thruway, even less) appeal for local and regional traffic.

Quote from: vdeane on August 19, 2024, 02:25:48 PMFor least, I would think odd-shaped routes like NY 8, NY 9N, or NY 28.

Considering that the qualifier for least-clinched was the shortest route possible, I was thinking NY 386 is a pretty good one. Most trips between Scottsville and points north wouldn't use it to begin with, and you'd have to really meander to clinch it in one shot: it has 6 turns in less 5 miles, and the northern four of those are very easily bypassed by I-490/NY 531, while being under 16 miles in total length.

My examples from Kansas:

Most Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-335 (50.1 miles) - Easy call here. Once you're on it, there's only one other exit.

US Highway: US73 (91.12 miles) - Not a lot of great options in KS to choose from over the 20 mile limit, but this is a fairly direct route if you're going from the western side of the KC metro to Lincoln.

State Highway: K-10 (36.611 miles) - Depending on traffic, the quickest way from Topeka to the southern portion of the KC metro.

Least Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-470 (13.72 miles) - It's longer to use this around Topeka than it is to just stay on I-70 and most people probably only ever have taken it for the portion that's on the Turnpike.

US Highway: US159 (52.3 miles) - It's easier to have traveled this via the concurrency with US73 than it is to have taken its small independent section.

State Highway: K-214 (1.967 miles) - A loop through the metropolis of Hoyt, KS. If you're visiting there, you're likely going the same way in and same way out, so you'd never actually finish the loop.

I wrote my CT post before the others were posted...and but there was a delay in posting due to work.

Quote from: drebbin37 on August 20, 2024, 02:07:25 AMFor least likely, there are lots of possibilities.  There's the ferry routes, as you mentioned.  I can't imagine too many people have the patience to clinch the 115.76 miles of US1 in CT in one shot.  CT20 is another option (30.42 mi.), since very few vehicles go around the north side of Barkhamsted Reservoir through Hartland, but plenty use the Bradley Connector to I-91.  It would also be pretty strange to drive CT154 (27.77 mi.) or CT156 (22.21 mi.) from end to end.

In putting together my suggestions of 15 and 20, I was mentally making the (perhaps arbitrary) distinction of "travelers" vs "local traffic", and excluding "local traffic" from consideration in terms of likelihood of clinching.

Both 15 and 20 have a relatively high volume of "travelers", but I hadn't really considered most of the other candidates to be roads likely to be used by "travelers".

However, US 1...I hadn't considered that I-95 and US1 are multiplexed for several river crossings.  While I'd view US 1 as primarily a "local traffic" route in state..."travelers" on I-95 would technically be using US 1 in the multiplexes, although I doubt most of them would be aware of doing so.

Of course, by that reasoning, US 5 is only 54.6 miles long in CT, and "travelers" taking the inland route between NY and Boston will make use of it (probably without much awareness) at the Charter Oak bridge.

Quote from: MikeTheActuary on August 20, 2024, 12:34:50 PMWith the 20-mile criterion, I-395.  The natural flow of people using the I-95/I-91/I-84 corridor to travel between the Boston area and the NYC area excludes those highways.

I'm going to somewhat change my mind here.  Again, keeping the "traveler" vs "local traffic" distinction I'm making (perhaps despite the suggested rules)... I-395's clinch rate is going to be significantly diluted by people using I-395 between CT2 and CT2A to travel between the Hartford area and Mohegan Sun, and by people who skip the southernmost portion of I-395 due to a need to access northbound I-95.

I-395 probably has a clinch rate that is similarly low to 84/91/95.  It's definitely got a higher clinch rate than I-95, and it's longer in CT than I-91, but I don't have a good feel for whether long-haul truck traffic using I-84 as a bypass of NYC congestion to access MA and points northeast might cause 84's clinch rate to eke ahead of 395's.

Quote from: webny99 on August 20, 2024, 12:49:19 PMI think 'great' is a stretch for I-88 because (a) it's long enough that there are quite a few intersecting corridors where short and medium distance traffic could feasibly enter and leave the route (think Binghamton-Utica and Cortland-Albany), and (b) it's just not that well suited to use by long-distance traffic from the rest of NY state, or really anywhere besides Binghamton to the Albany area. Anything outside of that would typically use I-90 (e.g. Cleveland-Albany) or I-87/I-84 (e.g. Scranton-Albany). I-88 is awkward for the rest of upstate in particular: I've had to go out of the way to use I-88 at all and even then it's fragmented bits and pieces that I've managed to fit into larger (usually northwest/southeast oriented) trips.

So even looking at percentage of long-distance travelers on the route, I'd think the Thruway and I-81 have a significantly higher percentage than I-88 because those routes are appealing to a much broader range of trip endpoints while having similar (or in the case of the Thruway, even less) appeal for local and regional traffic.

Interesting... I would have assumed that Binghamton-Utica would use NY 12 or I-81/I-90, but Google does indeed suggest I-88/NY 8 as the default.

Also keep in mind that many people from Albany or points east use I-88 and NY 17 to shunpike the Thruway, not just due to tolls, but due to traffic and scenery.

I doubt most people are driving I-90 from PA to MA or even I-81 from PA to Canada.  Most traffic on both strikes me as using shorter sections.

Quote from: MikeTheActuary on August 20, 2024, 01:07:37 PMI'm going to somewhat change my mind here.  Again, keeping the "traveler" vs "local traffic" distinction I'm making (perhaps despite the suggested rules)...

I think with local traffic, you have to figure out what percentage of the traffic on a route is local or not, i.e. if you have a road with an AADT of 5,000 and it passes through a little town of 100 people, obviously a good chunk of those 100 people might take that road daily, but it doesn't contribute that much to the overall quantity of drivers.

In my case of saying I-25 in Colorado is the least likely to be clinched, it's because so many people take it as their daily commute and certainly very few people overall on the highway are going from Raton to Cheyenne.

Quote from: vdeane on August 20, 2024, 01:12:51 PMI doubt most people are driving I-90 from PA to MA or even I-81 from PA to Canada.  Most traffic on both strikes me as using shorter sections.

Right.. I wasn't referring to the "clinch rate" of those routes since their length in NY is considerably longer than I-88, but rather that their percentage of long-distance traffic is higher due to similar amounts of local traffic as I-88 but much higher overall volumes.

Quote from: webny99 on August 20, 2024, 01:20:48 PM

Quote from: vdeane on August 20, 2024, 01:12:51 PMI doubt most people are driving I-90 from PA to MA or even I-81 from PA to Canada.  Most traffic on both strikes me as using shorter sections.

Right.. I wasn't referring to the "clinch rate" of those routes since their length in NY is considerably longer than I-88, but rather that their percentage of long-distance traffic is higher due to similar amounts of local traffic as I-88 but much higher overall volumes.

For the record, despite me not knowing NY highways that well, I'd probably pick I-88 for most likely and I-295 for least likely.

For New Jersey, the highway most likely to be clinched would probably be the NJ Turnpike from Exits 1 - 18...with a caveat that taking either the Eastern or Western Spur counts.  Travelers regularly using the Turnpike have a better chance of clinching it including both spurs. 

After that, I-95 from the NJ/PA Turnpike Bridge to the GWB is probably 2nd place.  Yes, the two overlap via the Turnpike considerably, but they are 2 different routes for this exercise (says me).

For least likely:

I-295, as few travelers would need to travel between Delaware and Bucks County, PA and take I-295 all the way. Even if they are avoiding 95 in PA, considerably shorter routes are available, including via NJ 29.

Also, the Garden State Parkway, as there's few travelers on the NY State Thruway that would take it all the way to Cape May or the Cape May Lewis Ferry.  And vice-versa.

Not so sure about I-88 in New York as being "most likely".

I've taken several trips from the Mid-Atlantic area to visit Cooperstown and the Baseball Hall of Fame, which pretty much meant taking I-88 from Binghamton to Oneonta, but no further.

That strikes me as a "use case" that might be common enough to prevent I-88 from being a "likely candidate" for this.

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on August 19, 2024, 11:51:33 AMMost likely here in California would be I-205.  It is a short Interstate that is often the intuitive route towards the Bay Area from several directions.  The least likely would be some of the hyper rural one lane highways like CA 172, CA 229 or even CA 169. 

CA 173 and CA 39 would probably even top those given you literally have to hike the closed segments if you want a clinch.  Normal people don't go for clinching much less exploring strange remote areas.

I-305 in Sacramento would have to be up there for most clenched by travelers as part of the journey to go on US-50 to Lake Tahoe and to the Bay Area via US-50 and I-80.

South Carolina:

Most likely to clinch:

Interstate: I-95 (198.76 miles) - 80% of the people on 95 in SC do not get off at all. They're going from a northern state to Florida and the only places they stop are the major towns (Florence, Manning, Santee, Walterboro, Point South, Hardeeville). And 20 doesn't serve a major purpose for most in NC. 17 and 26 are probably the most frequent get-off points.

US Highway: US 501 (73.770 miles) - 501 is the exit at South of the Border, and many people get on there and drive out to Myrtle Beach that way.

State highway: SC 22 (29.390 miles) - directly bypasses Conway and goes directly into the northern part of Myrtle Beach. The exits are all local.

Least likely to clinch:

Interstate: I-26 (220.95 miles) - passes through so many major cities and traffic is completely different for the past I-95 portion, between I-20 and 95, 20 and 385, and west through Spartanburg.

US Highway: US 76 (297.79 miles) - longest highway in the state, goes from the Georgia line in the mountains all the way through to the Pee Dee of NC. Almost no through traffic.

State highway: SC 34 (185.930 miles) - Greenwood to Dillon is not a very popular connector route, and it doesn't pass through any major towns.

SC 9 is right up there, but you could theoretically clinch that going to Cherry Grove and North Myrtle from the Spartanburg area.

Thinking about Nevada a little more:

None of our state routes is duplexed with any other numbered highway; they are all standalone.  The major ones connect one highway to another, or terminate at a state line.  There are many minor ones that dead end in the middle of nowhere, often continuing as a BLM-maintained gravel road.

Further, there are very few towns served only by a Nevada state route.  Often there's nothing of consequence along the entire length of the state route greater than some tiny ranch settlement, unless there's some attraction like a state park.  A few such as SR 305 do carry quite a bit of traffic from a town at one end (Battle Mountain) to a mining operation (about 10 miles south of BM) and barely any traffic beyond that.

For those reasons I'm thinking the percentage of travelers who clinch a Nevada state route the first time they drive it will be right at the top of all states.  SR 318 as I discussed above is a great example but others work well too.

The state route not lying entirely within an urban area that doesn't fit the description is SR 160, which starts from I-15 as a suburban boulevard, carries a lot of traffic as a four-lane divided highway over mountains and across desert to well-populated Pahrump, then continues as a pretty lonely two-lane road on up to US 95.

As to US highways and Interstates, while there's a ton of traffic that enters Nevada on I-15, goes to Vegas and turns around there, the real answer to "least-clinched" has to be US 95.  Nobody enters the state from Oregon and drives all 650+ miles of US 95 in Nevada to connect with I-40 west of Needles, except some crazy roadgeek who's making a drive like that as part of some Season of Clinching.

For California, I like the I-205 suggestion and I think I-505 would fall under the same bucket. I think for an even longer route, I-40 should be under consideration. It's the only other interstate in CA that doesn't involve a major metro area where there will be a lot of local traffic. The only other traffic generator I can really think of is Needles and US-95, but I think that would be quite sparse compared with the long-haul traffic on I-40.

For state routes, similar to the Nevada answers, something like 177 or 371 that connects two larger routes with not much in between stands out. 154 as well - with GPS often sending through traffic that way, I could see more end-to-end 154 traffic than local traffic on that route. 167 and 182 just connect to Nevada, and I doubt there would be much, if any traffic traversing just part of it. Same for 270 to Bodie, and US-199 to Oregon (although 197 will take some away from that). There are also some shorter dead-end routes (207, 217, 282) and shorter connector routes (149, 183) that probably get a lot of full clinches are but are well under 20 miles.

Otherwise - there are a ton of routes that are really long and have sections that are well-travelled but also sections that are not - it would be pretty rare for someone to drive something like 4 or 46 or 152 all the way end-to-end, even though they are quite major routes. To say nothing of 1, 99, or US-101.

Quote from: gonealookin on August 20, 2024, 07:53:22 PMFor those reasons I'm thinking the percentage of travelers who clinch a Nevada state route the first time they drive it will be right at the top of all states.  SR 318 as I discussed above is a great example but others work well too.

If Nevada is at the top of that list, New York is probably dead last. We have a lot of lengthy state routes that require significant effort to clinch, and many short (<20 mile) state routes that are easily clinchable, but almost nothing in the prime range of 20-100 mile length is straight point-A to point-B, and in fact most routes in that range have multiple turns and/or concurrencies.

Quote from: webny99 on August 20, 2024, 08:13:47 PM

Quote from: gonealookin on August 20, 2024, 07:53:22 PMFor those reasons I'm thinking the percentage of travelers who clinch a Nevada state route the first time they drive it will be right at the top of all states.  SR 318 as I discussed above is a great example but others work well too.

If Nevada is at the top of that list, New York is probably dead last. We have a lot of lengthy state routes that require significant effort to clinch, and many short (<20 mile) state routes that are easily clinchable, but almost nothing in the prime range of 20-100 mile length is straight point-A to point-B, and in fact most routes in that range have multiple turns and/or concurrencies.

100% agree on New York. While I agree with some of the skepticism of I-88 upthread, I am hard-pressed to come up with something better. Many routes have sections (especially near the ends) that are far less-traveled than the majority of the route. For example - NY 74 (but for the eastern end out to the Ticonderoga ferry), NY 28N (but for the western end that overlaps NY 30 all the way back to NY 28), NY 145 (might be a candidate if its northwestern end was at I-88, not US 20)...

The best I can come up with is NY 73, as its main purpose is a connector from US 9/I-87 to Lake Placid, which are its two endpoints. But even then, a lot of hikers probably come from 87 and turn off near Keene Valley, so I'm sure the percentage is not very high.

Massachusetts is largely similar:
Best: if not for the 20-mile minimum, MA 25 and MA 88 would be good. With the 20-mile minimum... maybe MA 143? Even that's a stretch. MA 146? I would bet Worcester-RI traffic is significant, but probably spoiled by enough drivers going from I-90 to RI and skipping the northernmost piece.
Worst: I agree with the mention of MA 140 upthread, and I'd also suggest MA 2. Huge amounts of traffic in the Boston suburbs, but I doubt many of those folks make it all the way to Petersburg Pass at the MA/NY state line, or take the screwy routing for the easternmost few blocks in Boston.

Quote from: bwana39 on August 19, 2024, 10:33:04 PMCompletely?

I-40
I-30
I-20.
I-45.

Probably none of the US Highways particularly. I-10 is not that likely for " travellers" as opposed to truckers.

US 175 seems pretty likely.

Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on August 19, 2024, 01:24:28 PMWith 20 miles being the benchmark, Indiana would definitely be I-94. For state routes, I would guess either the northern IN 11 or the western IN 4.

Least likely would have been IN 111 before the very remote section got truncated, so now it's probably IN 166.

Most likely: I-94, US 30, IN 4 (Western segment)
Least likely: I-465, US 31, IN 166

The highway in Iowa most likely to be clinched is IA 60. The quickest way between Sioux City and the Minnesota border.

There's a few barely over the 20 mile threshold that are easily clinchable, such as IA 24 between New Hampton and Calmar and IA 56 between West Union and Elkader. I myself went from zero to clinched on both of those.

As for least likely, any of the highways such as IA 3, IA 9 or IA 92 which cross the majority of Iowa are obvious candidates.

While at first blush for Virginia the impulse is to list I-95 as "most likely," I don't think that's probably right. There are too many places where people are quite likely to exit to head to other destinations off I-95; the most notable, of course, would likely be I-295 and I-64 in the Richmond area (substantial amounts of southbound traffic heading east to Williamsburg, Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, and the Outer Banks, as well as northbound traffic heading west on I-64 towards Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, and other places along I-81), and then a fair amount of southbound I-95 traffic also exists to I-85. Northbound, you lose a reasonable amount of traffic at US-58 just after entering Virginia, and you also get a fair amount of long-distance traffic using Exit 133 for US-17 up towards Warrenton to head northwest of the DC area without having to use the Beltway.

The foregoing comment makes me think that a highway "most likely to be clinched" is one that meets the OP's criterion of running more than 20 miles within the state, that doesn't serve any significant in-state destinations to which people are likely to divert, and that doesn't have any intermediate connections to any major routes leading to other significant destinations to which people are likely to divert. So, applying those considerations, I tend to think the highway in Virginia with the highest "clinch percentage" is likely to be I-85. It's a major route, but it doesn't serve anything particularly notable in Virginia—I highly suspect it's most likely to be used by longer-distance traffic heading from places further north either to destinations in North Carolina (Raleigh, Durham, the Piedmont Triad, Charlotte, or connecting to I-40 to head further west) or places further south. Travel Mapping data may not always be representative of the average driver, but I note that 84.00% of Travel Mapping users who've been on I-85 in Virginia have clinched the segment, whereas for I-95 the percentage is 46.64.

The lack of diverting to other destinations and routes is also why I didn't select I-495 (the Capital Beltway). I suspect a lot of out-of-staters use only the portion between Springfield and the Wilson Bridge (following I-95), or the portion between Springfield and the American Legion Bridge (to connect to I-270), and a fair number of Maryland drivers may use only parts of the Virginia segment to go to places like Old Town Alexandria, Dulles Airport, or Tysons. I-66, similarly, sees a substantial amount of traffic exiting at Gainesville onto US-29.

As far as "least likely" goes, I have no idea. My impulse is to say something in far Southwest Virginia simply because so few people head down there compared to overall traffic patterns, but on the other hand I don't know the roads down there and there's also a good chance the people who do drive there might be more likely to clinch. As I think about it further, I tend to think "least likely" roads are probably going to be one of two things: Either something exceptionally long (just because the average person is not likely to use the whole thing) or something that largely parallels an Interstate (because the average driver is likely to opt for the Interstate). Thinking about it from that viewpoint, I'd guess there is a very good chance that US-58 is probably high on the "least likely to clinch" list, though it might not necessarily be at the top. It's the longest road in Virginia at 500.12 in-state miles, Travel Mapping shows that 6.34% of users who have been on it at all have clinched it (13 of 205), it serves a lot of very rural and isolated places, and I suspect a lot of longer-distance drivers who might have reason to go from, say, Hampton Roads to Knoxville, Tennessee, might be more likely to divert onto I-85 and I-40, or if they're going to Roanoke they might be more likely to use I-64 or US-460. I tend to think the "average driver" is highly likely to opt for an Interstate over a US route, even a very rural US route that's not likely to have many traffic lights.

I never created a full list for Massachusetts because I only had access to my phone at the time, which wasn't suitable for a long post.

Most likely Interstate: I-195. I-190 misses the 20-mile threshold by less than a mile.
Most likely US route: US 44. It's a straight shot, and it's more than just a state route type road that happens to carry a US designation. My first thought was US 3, but being partially freeway and partially not means many people will drive the freeway portion but not the surface portion.
Most likely state route: MA 146. It's a freeway. This was chosen over MA 24 because I-195's overlap with MA 24 decreases the ratio.
Most likely non-freeway state route: MA 143? It has few overall travelers, but it's point-to-point. It does have an overlap with MA 112, but 143 seems like the "main" road on this overlap.

Least likely Interstate: I-495. It's a beltway that nobody needs the entire thing for.
Least likely US route: US 20, since it's a parallel for the Mass Pike the whole way, plus you have to get the downtown Boston segment. I know US 202 being indirect is somewhat of a meme, but its path is actually somewhat reasonable in Massachusetts.
Least likely state route: MA 140, as described in my post above.

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 09:13:42 AMWhile at first blush for Virginia the impulse is to list I-95 as "most likely," I don't think that's probably right. There are too many places where people are quite likely to exit to head to other destinations off I-95; the most notable, of course, would likely be I-295 and I-64 in the Richmond area (substantial amounts of southbound traffic heading east to Williamsburg, Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, and the Outer Banks, as well as northbound traffic heading west on I-64 towards Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, and other places along I-81), and then a fair amount of southbound I-95 traffic also exists to I-85.

You left out the most common reason: commuting traffic. Not only in the DC area, but the Richmond area as well. That would be the vast majority of traffic on 95 most days, especially weekdays.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 21, 2024, 11:00:23 AM

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 09:13:42 AMWhile at first blush for Virginia the impulse is to list I-95 as "most likely," I don't think that's probably right. There are too many places where people are quite likely to exit to head to other destinations off I-95; the most notable, of course, would likely be I-295 and I-64 in the Richmond area (substantial amounts of southbound traffic heading east to Williamsburg, Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, and the Outer Banks, as well as northbound traffic heading west on I-64 towards Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, and other places along I-81), and then a fair amount of southbound I-95 traffic also exists to I-85.

You left out the most common reason: commuting traffic. Not only in the DC area, but the Richmond area as well. That would be the vast majority of traffic on 95 most days, especially weekdays.

That's a fair point. I think I probably figured that the average commuter might be more likely than the average long-distance traveler to have "clinched" his home state's segment at some point, but I didn't read the OP carefully enough to take note of the reference to doing it in one shot. The average commuter, or really any in-state resident, is probably less likely to do that than an out-of-stater passing through (using the "highway of 20 miles or more in length" criterion to exclude I-395, I don't think I've ever done any of Virginia's Interstates in a single shot except for I-85 and I-295). There are a few exceptions, of course; at one point, my late father had a work colleague in downtown DC who lived in Woodstock, Virginia, and drove in every day via I-81 and the entirety of Virginia's I-66 (don't know whether she met the HOV requirement or just drove a hybrid).

Doesn't change my answer about I-85, though.

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 11:07:08 AMDoesn't change my answer about I-85, though.

I-85 definitely seems like the correct answer to me for VA interstates.

My examples from Wyoming:

Most Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-90 (208.80 miles) - A) the shortest, B) of the three 2dis in Wyoming, the one that doesn't pass through either of the largest two cities, and C) moderately on the way to Yellowstone, the most visited place in the state.

US Highway: US18 (99.68 miles) - Kind of the default answer here as most of the other US routes are very long and/or have broken up segments. US89 was a consideration but local traffic in Jackson ruins it.

State Highway: WYO430 (53.52 miles) - The quickest way from Northern Colorado to Rock Springs. It also doesn't get a lot of local traffic in Rock Springs since it ends before it really gets into town.

Least Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-25 (300.53 miles) - As I put in my Colorado entry, I-25 just isn't really a freight corridor that connects large metro areas. If you're coming from the east and want to go to the Pacific northwest, you're not going I-70->I-25->I-90, you'd much more likely go I-80->I-84.

US Highway: US189 (216.48 miles) - People often travel the concurrency with I-80 or the stretch to Jackson, but very little of the rest.

State Highway: WYO222 (1.81 miles) - Extends on both ends of I-80 just west of Cheyenne and doesn't connect to much. I can see exiting and choosing to go north or south, but I can't see much thru traffic ever needing to us the whole thing.

I occurred to me that NY 9R is probably a good example of "least clinched".  It's 3.2 miles long (https://www.google.com/maps/dir/42.7625836,-73.7556227/42.7832791,-73.7441052/@42.7826233,-73.7564577,13.54z/data=!4m9!4m8!1m5!3m4!1m2!1d-73.729652!2d42.7735587!3s0x89de0e1e0d1a1349:0x634a42b94fdfb997!1m0!3e0?entry=ttu), and there's basically no reason to drive it all the way from one end to another (in fact, you're more likely to drive by both ends without using it at all) unless you're a roadgeek looking for a clinch (or a contractor gathering data for the DOT photolog/pavement condition inventory).

Because of the "20 mile rule", I can't think of any good contenders for "most likely" in Vermont (though I might just say screw it to Jayhawk and proclaim I-189 the winner anyway...gets a lot more traffic than VT 26, at least).

For "least likely", I would say the trophy goes to VT 100.  Not only would nobody in their right mind be going from North Adams to Newport in one sitting, but there are large numbers of vastly shorter-and-faster routings to take between the two.  VT 100 isn't even the most direct routing along a number of its segments (including North Adams to Wilmington...much better to take VT 8 and VT 9).

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 21, 2024, 11:52:14 AM

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 11:07:08 AMDoesn't change my answer about I-85, though.

I-85 definitely seems like the correct answer to me for VA interstates.

I concur. With 2nd being 295.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 21, 2024, 12:49:17 PM

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 21, 2024, 11:52:14 AM

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 11:07:08 AMDoesn't change my answer about I-85, though.

I-85 definitely seems like the correct answer to me for VA interstates.

I concur. With 2nd being 295.

I would disagree on 295.  Mainly because of the leg west of I-95 that connects to I-64 towards Charlottesville.

Quote from: froggie on August 21, 2024, 12:47:54 PMBecause of the "20 mile rule", I can't think of any good contenders for "most likely" in Vermont (though I might just say screw it to Jayhawk and proclaim I-189 the winner anyway...gets a lot more traffic than VT 26, at least).

For "least likely", I would say the trophy goes to VT 100.  Not only would nobody in their right mind be going from North Adams to Newport in one sitting, but there are large numbers of vastly shorter-and-faster routings to take between the two.  VT 100 isn't even the most direct routing along a number of its segments (including North Adams to Wilmington...much better to take VT 8 and VT 9).

I essentially got VT 103 (the only reason I don't actually have it is because the GPS saw traffic in Chester and routed us around it). I got the portion of VT 103 east of I-91 because that's how you get to NH 12, as I was continuing in the same general southeast direction.

Quote from: froggie on August 21, 2024, 12:47:54 PMBecause of the "20 mile rule", I can't think of any good contenders for "most likely" in Vermont (though I might just say screw it to Jayhawk and proclaim I-189 the winner anyway...gets a lot more traffic than VT 26, at least).

I might argue VT102 (43.755 miles)? If you're heading up into Canada from the Littleton area or even to the Connecticut Lakes Headwaters area, unlikely to turn off?

For least likely, as a technicality, VT9 Truck in Brattleboro (3.00 miles)? 95% of the length is a concurrency on I-91, and then there's a little segment off the highway to meet back up with VT9 that very few thru travelers are taking.

Central Florida no doubt I-4.

Quote from: froggie on August 21, 2024, 12:47:54 PMFor "least likely", I would say the trophy goes to VT 100.  Not only would nobody in their right mind be going from North Adams to Newport in one sitting

In a single sitting, yes. However, VT 100 is the quintessential scenic state route in Vermont, and driving it in entirety is a bucket list item for many people, including non-roadgeeks, due to leaf peeping.

Quote from: webny99 on August 21, 2024, 04:50:49 PM

Quote from: froggie on August 21, 2024, 12:47:54 PMFor "least likely", I would say the trophy goes to VT 100.  Not only would nobody in their right mind be going from North Adams to Newport in one sitting

In a single sitting, yes. However, VT 100 is the quintessential Vermont state route and driving it in entirety is a bucket list item for many people, including non-roadgeeks, due to leaf peeping.

And there are plenty of long (by Vermont standards) highways that are equally unlikely to be clinched all at once. That's why I specified taking the shortest one that is unlikely to be clinched, since that's more interesting.

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 09:13:42 AMWhile at first blush for Virginia the impulse is to list I-95 as "most likely," I don't think that's probably right. There are too many places where people are quite likely to exit to head to other destinations off I-95;

According to the terms of the OP I actually think passing through a large metro area alone is enough to make a route a poor candidate for "most likely", unless the route specifically exists as a bypass of that metro. The greater extent to which a route exists solely as a "point to point" or a connection between two other major routes, the better fit it is for this exercise.  That makes I-85 a great candidate for Virginia IMO.

Quote from: webny99 on August 21, 2024, 04:59:24 PM

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 09:13:42 AMWhile at first blush for Virginia the impulse is to list I-95 as "most likely," I don't think that's probably right. There are too many places where people are quite likely to exit to head to other destinations off I-95;

According to the terms of the OP I actually think passing through a large metro area alone is enough to make a route a poor candidate for "most likely", unless the route specifically exists as a bypass of that metro.

Agreed. The more population centers it passes through, the more likely it's a "least likely".

Quote from: webny99 on August 21, 2024, 04:50:49 PM

Quote from: froggie on August 21, 2024, 12:47:54 PMFor "least likely", I would say the trophy goes to VT 100.  Not only would nobody in their right mind be going from North Adams to Newport in one sitting

In a single sitting, yes. However, VT 100 is the quintessential scenic state route in Vermont, and driving it in entirety is a bucket list item for many people, including non-roadgeeks, due to leaf peeping.

It also has a number of overlaps with more major routes, giving it a similar quality to Truck VT 9.

West Virginia has two of them, equally likely and roughly parallel:  I-81 and US-522.  While I would be inclined to add US-340 for the same reason, deep down inside I realize that many of the folks headed to Charles Town stop there and turn around later the same day (with a few hundred dollars extracted from their wallets).

Quote from: froggie on August 21, 2024, 12:51:09 PM

Quote from: jeffandnicole on August 21, 2024, 12:49:17 PM

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 21, 2024, 11:52:14 AM

Quote from: 1995hoo on August 21, 2024, 11:07:08 AMDoesn't change my answer about I-85, though.

I-85 definitely seems like the correct answer to me for VA interstates.

I concur. With 2nd being 295.

I would disagree on 295.  Mainly because of the leg west of I-95 that connects to I-64 towards Charlottesville.

Oh yeah. Forgot about that.

My 2 cents on California routes:

The CA 23 freeway portion (yes, I know, not the full route) is certainly a drive-through route for everyone trying to access CA 118 East or US 101 North/South. The CA 23 freeway portion essentially "becomes" the CA 118 freeway anyway. Unless you're a local in a sprawling, quasi-rural part of Thousand Oaks, the CA 23 freeway is easily clinched by drivers.

CA 217 in Santa Barbara/Goleta is another. I'm pretty sure 80-90% of traffic is going to either the airport or UCSB, both right at the end of the route.

Ditto for I-40. There is barely anything between Barstow and Needles. Most CA traffic is going into Arizona or Laughlin.

Michigan

Most likely:

• Interstate - This is hard; most routes bend around somewhere meaning they're not the most direct. I'd go with I-196, but realize that many travelers wouldn't complete the portion east of US-131.
• US - If not for the 20-mile limit, US-8 in a heartbeat. Not many good candidates - maybe US-141?
• State - Again, the 20-mile limit hits, else I'd say M-185 (but by bike). Maybe M-14. M-6 just misses the 20 mile mark, but that would also be a contender. Another possibility would be M-22, despite its shape, just for the sightseeing appeal.

Least likely:

• Interstate - I-96, although as noted in "most likely" there are quite a few candidates because of the lack of direct routes.
• US - US-41? It bends around so much. Runners up would be US-23 and US-2.
• State - Any number of routes. Routes that change direction such as M-94 and M-123. Any cross-peninsula routes in the LP, simply because most travelers wouldn't be going e/w on their entirety.

I've probably missed a few candidates in both categories.

Quote from: GaryV on August 22, 2024, 07:44:08 AMMichigan

Most likely:

• Interstate - This is hard; most routes bend around somewhere meaning they're not the most direct. I'd go with I-196, but realize that many travelers wouldn't complete the portion east of US-131.
• US - If not for the 20-mile limit, US-8 in a heartbeat. Not many good candidates - maybe US-141?
• State - Again, the 20-mile limit hits, else I'd say M-185 (but by bike). Maybe M-14. M-6 just misses the 20 mile mark, but that would also be a contender. Another possibility would be M-22, despite its shape, just for the sightseeing appeal.

Least likely:

• Interstate - I-96, although as noted in "most likely" there are quite a few candidates because of the lack of direct routes.
• US - US-41? It bends around so much. Runners up would be US-23 and US-2.
• State - Any number of routes. Routes that change direction such as M-94 and M-123. Any cross-peninsula routes in the LP, simply because most travelers wouldn't be going e/w on their entirety.

I've probably missed a few candidates in both categories.

In my opinion, I-75 is a better candidate for least likely. It's deviation east to Detroit means that US 23 or I-275 are shorter route options when travelling from the south end of Michigan up to Flint (so who would actually drive the full length in one go unless you're a roadgeek going for a clinch?). Also, I imagine few people will follow the route right up to its end at the Soo border crossing.

Delaware:

Most likely:

US 40 - I actually have done that, there and back, in a single day.  I think it's long enough, not much here comes close to twenty miles.  This will be less likely over time as development continues.


Least likely:

DE 1 - nobody takes it all the way from Fenwick Island to the Christiana Mall.  (Technically, the route is three highways put together.)

US 13 - It goes through too many towns.  Not to mention it isn't signed very well in the city of Wilmington.

In Wisconsin, I'm thinking that WI 441 is very unlikely to be driven from end to end in any single trip, even by Appleton area locals.  I-41 is used for that.

Mike

Quote from: mgk920 on August 22, 2024, 11:42:36 AMIn Wisconsin, I'm thinking that WI 441 is very unlikely to be driven from end to end in any single trip, even by Appleton area locals.  I-41 is used for that.

Mike

Who said anything about a single trip? Most people living on that side of Appleton have probably clinched it via multiple trips.

Quote from: hotdogPi on August 22, 2024, 11:53:26 AM

Quote from: mgk920 on August 22, 2024, 11:42:36 AMIn Wisconsin, I'm thinking that WI 441 is very unlikely to be driven from end to end in any single trip, even by Appleton area locals.  I-41 is used for that.

Mike

Who said anything about a single trip? Most people living on that side of Appleton have probably clinched it via multiple trips.

Me.

Quote from: mgk920 on August 22, 2024, 11:42:36 AMIn Wisconsin, I'm thinking that WI 441 is very unlikely to be driven from end to end in any single trip, even by Appleton area locals.  I-41 is used for that.

Mike

I had done that several times when I lived west of Appleton and the Bridgeview interchange was incomplete.

Quote from: hotdogPi on August 22, 2024, 11:53:26 AM

Quote from: mgk920 on August 22, 2024, 11:42:36 AMIn Wisconsin, I'm thinking that WI 441 is very unlikely to be driven from end to end in any single trip, even by Appleton area locals.  I-41 is used for that.

Mike

Who said anything about a single trip? Most people living on that side of Appleton have probably clinched it via multiple trips.

See the original post (both forms of emphasis added):

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 19, 2024, 11:32:15 AMI had this thought as I was driving out to go camping and when I exited onto CO91 from I-70, I realized that, unless you're just going skiing at Copper Mountain, almost everyone that takes CO91 probably goes all the way to Leadville since there aren't any cities and are very few businesses and/or residences along the way. So, I started thinking about which routes are most likely to be clinched (in one shot) by any traveler that travels on the highway and then the opposite of that as well - which routes are least likely to be traveled straight through by anyone.

....

Yeah, it's a whole different topic if we're talking about eventually getting clinched. The whole thought that inspired this thread was me exiting onto CO91, knowing that I was taking it from the northern terminus to the southern and then realizing that almost everyone that "starts" CO91 also finishes it, since there is almost nowhere to turn off, there are no cities, and very few business/farms. And the fact that it's not a short highway, I thought that was interesting.

For West Virginia, with a minimum length of 20 miles, I'd say I-68 and I-81. Lots of people driving through the Eastern Panhandle on I-81. I-68 users are likely either through travels driving the full route to connect to Maryland or Morgantown area locals who've driven to Maryland as well.

US 460 is probably the only US route likely to be fully clinched that is over 20 miles in the state.

West Virginia tends to prefer long state routes with logically independent sections assembled together into a longer number. That means that most routes over 20 miles aren't going to have a lot of complete clinches.

I'd venture WV 2 is most common over time since it connects the cities along the Ohio River. A couple state routes likely also fit into that category because there's not much along the way - WV 17 and WV 23. Some people may have WV 817 just because it used to be US 35.

Quote from: Bitmapped on August 24, 2024, 11:46:38 AMUS 460 is probably the only US route likely to be fully clinched that is over 20 miles in the state.

I'd venture WV 2 is most common over time since it connects the cities along the Ohio River. A couple state routes likely also fit into that category because there's not much along the way - WV 17 and WV 23. Some people may have WV 817 just because it used to be US 35.

Why not US-35 (as compared to US-460)?  Seems like most travellers using US-460 are headed from the Great Lakes -to- Blacksburg/Roanoke (moreso, headed directly to Virginia Tech, assuming that college families are considered travellers).  Likewise, there is a fair amount of out-of-state traffic from I-77 that uses US-19/US-460 to bypass Wytheville (although the smart ones head down to the US-52 exit at the base of East River Mountain). 

In comparison, almost all of the out-of-state traffic on US-35 is headed to/from I-64.  With the exception of folks that still want to utilize the truck stops and fast food at the Teays Valley exit (although the smart ones will head down to I-64 and backtrack one exit west, still clinching the route).

Quote from: GaryV on August 22, 2024, 07:44:08 AMMichigan

Most likely:

• Interstate - This is hard; most routes bend around somewhere meaning they're not the most direct. I'd go with I-196, but realize that many travelers wouldn't complete the portion east of US-131.
• US - If not for the 20-mile limit, US-8 in a heartbeat. Not many good candidates - maybe US-141?
• State - Again, the 20-mile limit hits, else I'd say M-185 (but by bike). Maybe M-14. M-6 just misses the 20 mile mark, but that would also be a contender. Another possibility would be M-22, despite its shape, just for the sightseeing appeal.

Least likely:

• Interstate - I-96, although as noted in "most likely" there are quite a few candidates because of the lack of direct routes.
• US - US-41? It bends around so much. Runners up would be US-23 and US-2.
• State - Any number of routes. Routes that change direction such as M-94 and M-123. Any cross-peninsula routes in the LP, simply because most travelers wouldn't be going e/w on their entirety.

I've probably missed a few candidates in both categories.

Being from Michigan as well let me think if I can come up with any that you missed.

Most likely:
Interstate: I-69 would be a good choice since any travels between Canada and anywhere SW of Michigan would probably include a clinch of I-69 in the state. I-94 maybe but I think most people would bypass Detroit by using I-69 between Marshall and Port Huron.

US: US-223 wouldn't be a hard one. Toledo to the center of the state covers it from end to end.

State: I can't think of any other ones besides one that you already mentioned and the others you mentioned, M-14 is part of a shorter and quicker route between I-94 at it's western end and downtown Detroit at I-96's eastern end.


Least likely:

Interstate: I agree with I-96 since it crosses the state in a direction that a lot of travelers would not be going in.

US: Agreed with US-41 due to all tbe bending it does and it dead ends in a cul-de-sac east of Copper Harbor so not a through route at all really. And it's almost 280 miles long. US-45 would be a good candidate here as well since it ends in Ontonagon and there is nowhere to go after that really.

State: I agree with the cross peninsula highways in the LP. M-26 would be a good one here since it ends near the dead end of US-41 in Copper Harbor. This highway is almost 100 miles long taking you to US-45 outside of Rockland.

Illinois:

Most Likely to Clinch
I-80 - Only 163.5 miles, so most might not even stop for fuel.
I-70 - Another quick, direct route across the state.
I-294 - Bypass of Chicago between Indiana and Milwaukee.  The shunpikers might get I-94 instead.

Least Likely to Clinch
A lot of the longer distance US and state routes, examples:
US-52 - Doesn't really go much of anywhere, but crosses the state at an angle.
IL-116 - Crosses most of the state east-west, but not exactly a route travelers would take for that distance.
US-40 or US-6 - Parallel I-70 and I-80, see those above.

Quote from: Flint1979 on August 24, 2024, 09:09:04 PMBeing from Michigan as well let me think if I can come up with any that you missed.

Most likely:
Interstate: I-69 would be a good choice since any travels between Canada and anywhere SW of Michigan would probably include a clinch of I-69 in the state. I-94 maybe but I think most people would bypass Detroit by using I-69 between Marshall and Port Huron.

I would respectfully disagree with I-69 for having a high percentage of clinchers.  Traffic from Detroit to Grand Rapids using I-94 would be on a brief concurrency with I-69 near Lansing.

Quote from: dantheman on August 20, 2024, 11:12:34 PMThe best I can come up with is NY 73, as its main purpose is a connector from US 9/I-87 to Lake Placid, which are its two endpoints. But even then, a lot of hikers probably come from 87 and turn off near Keene Valley, so I'm sure the percentage is not very high.

This is also the best I've come up with for NY that meets the 20-mile criteria.  Another reason to take it only part way, though, is that many going to Whiteface Mountain from I-87 probably head north on 9N from Keene.  If we were able to get real numbers for this, New York's winner would likely have a pretty small percentage compared to winners in some other states.

^ Yeah, NY 73 is a decent candidate by NY standards but the NY 9N overlap hurts it quite a bit. I think NY 31A is a slightly better candidate, though by no means a great one.

Quote from: webny99 on August 25, 2024, 06:56:00 PM^ Yeah, NY 73 is a decent candidate by NY standards but the NY 9N overlap hurts it quite a bit. I think NY 31A is a slightly better candidate, though by no means a great one.

The issue is the traffic ducking off, not the overlap per se.  Probably more NY 73->NY 9N traffic than NY 9N thru traffic going from Elizabethtown to Jay.

Oregon:

Today I clinched, yet again, Oregon's most likely, US 95, which runs a bit over 120 miles in the state.  There's only one small ranch "town" along there, Jordan Valley, which is down to the gas station/c-store, a coffee place, USPS, a school and not a heck of a lot else.  I can't imagine much traffic entering from Idaho would make the turn on to Oregon SR 78 as US 20 would be the more sensible route.  Some traffic entering from Nevada would take that turn.  But aside from that little bit of local traffic a huge percentage of drivers on that route clinch it in two hours.

I wouldn't know enough about short routes in Oregon to say which is least likely.  Most people driving from Seaside to Idaho would switch from US 26 to I-84 in Portland, and even those going on past Mt. Hood might turn up SR 35 back to I-84 or might be headed to Bend.  That "cutoff" part of US 26 from south of Madras to Prineville might be pretty easy to skip.  Also I-84 will be preferred over the city streets from I-405 to Gresham.

Wisconsin

Interstate most likely
I-90; long distance traffic

US route most likely
US-2; US-141 would be the clear winner if not for its irrelevant southern terminus.

State route most likely
WI-173; shortcut road

Interstate least likely
I-94; the Milwaukee diversion both renders it irrelevant as a long distance route and adds tons of local traffic to the road, bringing down the percentage of clinchers

US route least likely
US-151; no reason you would ever clinch it unless you were actively trying to. Even US-12, 14, and 18 could happen accidentally due to Interstate closures/backups.

State route least likely
Tons of candidates but I'd go with WI-73.

Quote from: TheHighwayMan3561 on August 19, 2024, 12:14:54 PMMN

Most likely
I-694 - MSP bypass
US 8 - popular cabin route into Wisconsin
TH 371 - also a major cabin country route, but goes point to point with no extraneous miles like most qualifying state routes

Least likely
I-35 - because most people probably came from the east or west, there's no reason for most people to take this route both ways out of MSP
US 69 - odd origin point in Albert Lea, redundant to both I-35 and US 65
TH 77 - continues a couple miles past its last major traffic shift point at I-35E

Agree with all these except MN-77, there has to be a less likely one out there.

Quote from: thspfc on August 27, 2024, 05:56:50 PMAgree with all these except MN-77, there has to be a less likely one out there.

I'm sure there is. But based on what the OP seemed to want, a shorter length route that your average joe probably isn't going to just clinch, it fit the bill.

-It extends briefly in both directions beyond its two heaviest traffic shift points at 494 and 35E
-Lots of logical points to leave the route at 494, Mall of America, TH 13, 35E, and the zoo exit at McAndrews Road
-To go further into the zoo exit point, 77 technically extends past McAndrews to the first at-grade intersection at 138th St in Apple Valley, so even if you're going from south Minneapolis to the zoo, you won't technically clinch 77

I suppose another case study though several miles longer than 77 would be TH 62/Crosstown. A lot of major traffic shift points at US 169/212, TH 100, I-35W, TH 77, TH 55, TH 5, and I-35E. The original pre-TH 110 absorption part of the route seems to serve as the unofficial business route companion to I-494 where more local trips are taken on 62 than 494.

TH 36 (21 miles), where a lot of traffic will get off at TH 95 to go to downtown Stillwater and not cross the bridge into Wisconsin.

I suppose TH 120 as one of the last surface street routes remaining in the Twin Cities. Few people are probably driving that end-to-end.

I realize comparing TM clinches between routes has a lot of issues, but here are the percentages for discussed routes:
77: 37%
62: 18%
36: 37%
120: 67%

Quote from: TheHighwayMan3561 on August 28, 2024, 04:19:17 AMI realize comparing TM clinches between routes has a lot of issues, but here are the percentages for discussed routes:

The biggest issue is doing it in one shot. I've clinched MN 77 and the driven the majority of it dozens of times, but I'm not sure I've ever done it straight through end to end, even though I can recall a couple of cases where it would have theoretically made sense to do so.



Looking at this for NY, the candidates for "most likely" that stand out are:

NY 73, 70.5%
NY 256, 68.8%
NY 31A, 66.7%
NY 54A, 66.7%

I don't think anything else in the entire state >20 miles has been clinched by ≥2/3 of drivers.


For least likely, some <20 mile long routes that stand out are:

NY 182, 34.8% (6.2 miles)
NY 366, 32.2% (9.3 miles)
NY 252, 32.1% (13.1 miles)
NY 266, 30.8% (11.3 miles)
NY 253, 28.0% (10.7 miles)
NY 400, 26.7% (16.7 miles)
NY 174, 25.0% (16.4 miles)
NY 19A, 18.8% (18.7 miles)
NY 265, 15.8% (19.8 miles)

^I believe the only one on this NY list I currently have clinched is NY 182.

Quote from: 74/171FAN on August 28, 2024, 09:43:04 AM^I believe the only one on this NY list I currently have clinched is NY 182.

I guess this goes without saying, it's not a common route to clinch unless you live nearby or made a specific effort to clinch it. I've followed it from Whirlpool Bridge to I-190, but am still missing the section east of I-190.

Quote from: thspfc on August 27, 2024, 05:56:50 PMWisconsin

Interstate most likely
I-90; long distance traffic

US route most likely
US-2; US-141 would be the clear winner if not for its irrelevant southern terminus.

State route most likely
WI-173; shortcut road

Interstate least likely
I-94; the Milwaukee diversion both renders it irrelevant as a long distance route and adds tons of local traffic to the road, bringing down the percentage of clinchers

US route least likely
US-151; no reason you would ever clinch it unless you were actively trying to. Even US-12, 14, and 18 could happen accidentally due to Interstate closures/backups.

State route least likely
Tons of candidates but I'd go with WI-73.

WI state route most likely, I would think that WI 119 is far and away the most likely.  I have not seen the numbers, but I would be very surprised if less than 90-95% of all of the traffic on it does not get on or off at Howell Av (WI 38) and instead drives it from end to end in single trips.

For US routes in the state, I don't know if anyone except for a very few really fanatical roadgeeks have ever driven all of US 45 between the Illinois and Michigan state lines in single trips.

As for state routes unlikely to be driven from end to end in single trips, where do I begin?  Even with WI 47, which passes just a few short blocks from my residence here in Appleton, WI, I have never seen its 'end' sign at its north end.

Mike

Quote from: Flint1979 on August 24, 2024, 09:09:04 PM

Quote from: GaryV on August 22, 2024, 07:44:08 AMMichigan

Most likely:

• Interstate - This is hard; most routes bend around somewhere meaning they're not the most direct. I'd go with I-196, but realize that many travelers wouldn't complete the portion east of US-131.
• US - If not for the 20-mile limit, US-8 in a heartbeat. Not many good candidates - maybe US-141?
• State - Again, the 20-mile limit hits, else I'd say M-185 (but by bike). Maybe M-14. M-6 just misses the 20 mile mark, but that would also be a contender. Another possibility would be M-22, despite its shape, just for the sightseeing appeal.

Least likely:

• Interstate - I-96, although as noted in "most likely" there are quite a few candidates because of the lack of direct routes.
• US - US-41? It bends around so much. Runners up would be US-23 and US-2.
• State - Any number of routes. Routes that change direction such as M-94 and M-123. Any cross-peninsula routes in the LP, simply because most travelers wouldn't be going e/w on their entirety.

I've probably missed a few candidates in both categories.

Being from Michigan as well let me think if I can come up with any that you missed.

Most likely:
Interstate: I-69 would be a good choice since any travels between Canada and anywhere SW of Michigan would probably include a clinch of I-69 in the state. I-94 maybe but I think most people would bypass Detroit by using I-69 between Marshall and Port Huron.

US: US-223 wouldn't be a hard one. Toledo to the center of the state covers it from end to end.

State: I can't think of any other ones besides one that you already mentioned and the others you mentioned, M-14 is part of a shorter and quicker route between I-94 at it's western end and downtown Detroit at I-96's eastern end.


Least likely:

Interstate: I agree with I-96 since it crosses the state in a direction that a lot of travelers would not be going in.

US: Agreed with US-41 due to all tbe bending it does and it dead ends in a cul-de-sac east of Copper Harbor so not a through route at all really. And it's almost 280 miles long. US-45 would be a good candidate here as well since it ends in Ontonagon and there is nowhere to go after that really.

State: I agree with the cross peninsula highways in the LP. M-26 would be a good one here since it ends near the dead end of US-41 in Copper Harbor. This highway is almost 100 miles long taking you to US-45 outside of Rockland.

When I saw the thread topic, the one that immediately popped in my head as the most obvious is US-223.  Because Michigan is a destination state and not a drive through state, this highway could be clenched by travelers heading to a destination - like MIS.

Quote from: Dirt Roads on August 24, 2024, 04:00:16 PM

Quote from: Bitmapped on August 24, 2024, 11:46:38 AMUS 460 is probably the only US route likely to be fully clinched that is over 20 miles in the state.

I'd venture WV 2 is most common over time since it connects the cities along the Ohio River. A couple state routes likely also fit into that category because there's not much along the way - WV 17 and WV 23. Some people may have WV 817 just because it used to be US 35.

Why not US-35 (as compared to US-460)?  Seems like most travellers using US-460 are headed from the Great Lakes -to- Blacksburg/Roanoke (moreso, headed directly to Virginia Tech, assuming that college families are considered travellers).  Likewise, there is a fair amount of out-of-state traffic from I-77 that uses US-19/US-460 to bypass Wytheville (although the smart ones head down to the US-52 exit at the base of East River Mountain). 

In comparison, almost all of the out-of-state traffic on US-35 is headed to/from I-64.  With the exception of folks that still want to utilize the truck stops and fast food at the Teays Valley exit (although the smart ones will head down to I-64 and backtrack one exit west, still clinching the route).

Neither WV 17 nor WV 23 are "major" enough to warrant a lot of through traffic. Traffic from Logan to the Danville/Madison area is going to use US 119, and part of the southern end of WV 23 is an unsigned route.

I'd go with WV 93 or WV 32 for "most clinched." Or perhaps WV 150.

For "least clinched," WV 55 and its cobbled-together hodgepodge of route segments.

Here's what comes to mind for Idaho:

Most Likely:
I-86. It's 63 miles, so well above the threshold, but not too long. A majority of people driving it are probably going all the way from I-15 to I-84 (eg. driving from Idaho Falls or Pocatello to Twin Falls or Boise). The only caveat, is the US-91 exit immediately west of I-15 probably gets a lot of extra traffic.

Least Likely:
US-26. It takes a pretty indirect route in Idaho, particularly from Bliss to Idaho Falls. And it's 402 miles so you would have to make a conscious effort to stick to it that long, I think. If your goal is the fastest route, you would take I-84, I-86, and I-15. If you wanted to stay off the interstates, US-20 is a more direct route (it doesn't deviate to Blackfoot between Arco and Idaho Falls). In addition to all that, in the Boise area it's a more local route, and thru traffic would generally stick to I-84.

I'll honorable mention US-95. It's really long (538 mi), and many people will only use small parts of it (eg. Oregon border to ID-55, Lewiston to Coeur d'Alene, stuff like that). ID-55 siphons off a lot of potential traffic between Marsing and New Meadows. Plenty of people will go over to US-195 north of Lewiston. A lot of people driving from Boise/Nampa to Coeur d'Alene will instead use I-84, I-82, US-395, and I-90.

But I stand by US-26 being less likely, because clinching US-95 is still a valid (and possibly the best) route if you were driving from Winnemucca, NV to Cranbrook, BC for whatever reason. Whereas clinching US-26 would never be the fastest, shortest, or best route from Oregon to Wyoming.

Quote from: mgk920 on August 28, 2024, 11:37:15 AM

Quote from: thspfc on August 27, 2024, 05:56:50 PMWisconsin

Interstate most likely
I-90; long distance traffic

US route most likely
US-2; US-141 would be the clear winner if not for its irrelevant southern terminus.

State route most likely
WI-173; shortcut road

Interstate least likely
I-94; the Milwaukee diversion both renders it irrelevant as a long distance route and adds tons of local traffic to the road, bringing down the percentage of clinchers

US route least likely
US-151; no reason you would ever clinch it unless you were actively trying to. Even US-12, 14, and 18 could happen accidentally due to Interstate closures/backups.

State route least likely
Tons of candidates but I'd go with WI-73.

WI state route most likely, I would think that WI 119 is far and away the most likely.  I have not seen the numbers, but I would be very surprised if less than 90-95% of all of the traffic on it does not get on or off at Howell Av (WI 38) and instead drives it from end to end in single trips.

For US routes in the state, I don't know if anyone except for a very few really fanatical roadgeeks have ever driven all of US 45 between the Illinois and Michigan state lines in single trips.

As for state routes unlikely to be driven from end to end in single trips, where do I begin?  Even with WI 47, which passes just a few short blocks from my residence here in Appleton, WI, I have never seen its 'end' sign at its north end.

Mike

WI-119 doesn't qualify due to the 20-mile minimum in the OP. If that wasn't a rule the whole list would be different, I-535 would easily take the cake as an Interstate and a bunch of spur highways like WI-119 and WI-243 would have essentially a 100% clinch rate.

I'd say A-35. It's 25 miles long (soon to be longer) and is part of the Montréal to Boston corridor.

A-85 may also fit the bill as the main road connection between New Brunswick and the rest of Canada.

Quote from: hbelkins on August 29, 2024, 02:25:23 PM

Quote from: Dirt Roads on August 24, 2024, 04:00:16 PM

Quote from: Bitmapped on August 24, 2024, 11:46:38 AMUS 460 is probably the only US route likely to be fully clinched that is over 20 miles in the state.

I'd venture WV 2 is most common over time since it connects the cities along the Ohio River. A couple state routes likely also fit into that category because there's not much along the way - WV 17 and WV 23. Some people may have WV 817 just because it used to be US 35.

Why not US-35 (as compared to US-460)?  Seems like most travellers using US-460 are headed from the Great Lakes -to- Blacksburg/Roanoke (moreso, headed directly to Virginia Tech, assuming that college families are considered travellers).  Likewise, there is a fair amount of out-of-state traffic from I-77 that uses US-19/US-460 to bypass Wytheville (although the smart ones head down to the US-52 exit at the base of East River Mountain). 

In comparison, almost all of the out-of-state traffic on US-35 is headed to/from I-64.  With the exception of folks that still want to utilize the truck stops and fast food at the Teays Valley exit (although the smart ones will head down to I-64 and backtrack one exit west, still clinching the route).

Neither WV 17 nor WV 23 are "major" enough to warrant a lot of through traffic. Traffic from Logan to the Danville/Madison area is going to use US 119, and part of the southern end of WV 23 is an unsigned route.

I'd go with WV 93 or WV 32 for "most clinched." Or perhaps WV 150.

For "least clinched," WV 55 and its cobbled-together hodgepodge of route segments.

OP talked about percentages not raw numbers. Whether it is a major route or has a lot of traffic doesn't matter.

US 35 has a small stub beyond I-64 that a lot of people aren't going to pick up. If you were to ignore that, I'd say US 35.

For the WV routes, if you get on WV 23 or WV 17, you're likely either driving all the way through or live on it and have driven all the way through at some point. WV 150 would fit into that same category.

WV 23 was truncated at its intersection with US 50 several ago. The part south/east of there into downtown Salem was downgraded to a county route.

Since the construction of Corridor H, WV 93 now has a standalone section between Scherr and Mount Storm Lake that new travelers would not have. I would imagine that a lot of people coming on WV 32 just have Canaan Valley north and not the full part down to Harman.

Quote from: JCinSummerfield on August 29, 2024, 12:28:31 PMWhen I saw the thread topic, the one that immediately popped in my head as the most obvious is US-223.  Because Michigan is a destination state and not a drive through state, this highway could be clenched by travelers heading to a destination - like MIS.

I wonder What percentage of drivers on US 45 in MI drive it from end to end (except for the last few blocks at its north end)?

Mike

Quote from: Bitmapped on September 06, 2024, 03:56:46 PMUS 35 has a small stub beyond I-64 that a lot of people aren't going to pick up. If you were to ignore that, I'd say US 35.

Sorry, that would be misinformation that I originally posted.  US-35 officially ends at I-64 and the remainder down to Teays Valley Road is (unposted) Spur US-35.  When originally constructed, this end sign (https://www.google.com/maps/@38.4619191,-81.9065114,3a,23y,158h,86.41t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sTDSpZXQAGlmYMzRJmD3o_Q!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkwNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D) was not yet posted, but this other end sign (https://www.google.com/maps/@38.4515279,-81.9033323,3a,34.4y,191.13h,89.43t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sgJhvqZ_AR26twHDdcVg2qw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkwNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D) was (and still is).  Possibly the only US route that has two posted endpoints.

A big part of my confusion is that US-35 was designed to extend all the way to its previous end-point near St. Albans.  Those plans show the house where I grew up being removed to make way for a trumpet intersection between a future US-35 overpass and Teays Valley Road when the expressway is extended.  On the other end, US-35 would connect directly with the west end of the McCorkle Avenue fourlane of US-60.

Quote from: Bitmapped on September 06, 2024, 03:56:46 PMUS 35 has a small stub beyond I-64 that a lot of people aren't going to pick up. If you were to ignore that, I'd say US 35.

On the other hand, since the flyover from US-35 to eastbound I-64 leaves the route before the official endpoint, that would still result in a stub that Clinch purists would consider to not be clinched.  (Assuming that the signage posted above is not considered an "official" exemption).   :banghead:

Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 06, 2024, 07:29:54 PMSorry, that would be misinformation that I originally posted.  US-35 officially ends at I-64 and the remainder down to Teays Valley Road is (unposted) Spur US-35.

The mile markers (https://www.google.com/maps/@38.4639389,-81.9073513,3a,48.9y,343.42h,82.58t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sY_-abGGvpB0WAwjlx14wvg!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D7.416134110329281%26panoid%3DY_-abGGvpB0WAwjlx14wvg%26yaw%3D343.4159165190855!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205410&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkwNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D) seem to indicate otherwise.

Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 06, 2024, 07:29:54 PMOn the other hand, since the flyover from US-35 to eastbound I-64 leaves the route before the official endpoint, that would still result in a stub that Clinch purists would consider to not be clinched.  (Assuming that the signage posted above is not considered an "official" exemption).   :banghead:

I think most people recognize "one point per interchange" with respect to counting clinches, although there are exceptions.

Quote from: dlsterner on August 25, 2024, 12:37:00 PM

Quote from: Flint1979 on August 24, 2024, 09:09:04 PMBeing from Michigan as well let me think if I can come up with any that you missed.

Most likely:
Interstate: I-69 would be a good choice since any travels between Canada and anywhere SW of Michigan would probably include a clinch of I-69 in the state. I-94 maybe but I think most people would bypass Detroit by using I-69 between Marshall and Port Huron.

I would respectfully disagree with I-69 for having a high percentage of clinchers.  Traffic from Detroit to Grand Rapids using I-94 would be on a brief concurrency with I-69 near Lansing.

Traffic from Detroit to Grand Rapids would be on I-96 not I-94. What does I-69 having a concurrency have to do with anything anyway?

Quote from: Flint1979 on September 06, 2024, 10:58:52 PM

Quote from: dlsterner on August 25, 2024, 12:37:00 PM

Quote from: Flint1979 on August 24, 2024, 09:09:04 PMBeing from Michigan as well let me think if I can come up with any that you missed.

Most likely:
Interstate: I-69 would be a good choice since any travels between Canada and anywhere SW of Michigan would probably include a clinch of I-69 in the state. I-94 maybe but I think most people would bypass Detroit by using I-69 between Marshall and Port Huron.

I would respectfully disagree with I-69 for having a high percentage of clinchers.  Traffic from Detroit to Grand Rapids using I-94 would be on a brief concurrency with I-69 near Lansing.

Traffic from Detroit to Grand Rapids would be on I-96 not I-94. What does I-69 having a concurrency have to do with anything anyway?

I mis-typed.  I intended to say I-96.  Nobody's perfect.  My point was that there would be a decent percentage of I-69 travelers who would only have the segment west of Lansing.

Quote from: dlsterner on September 07, 2024, 12:25:10 AM

Quote from: Flint1979 on September 06, 2024, 10:58:52 PM

Quote from: dlsterner on August 25, 2024, 12:37:00 PM

Quote from: Flint1979 on August 24, 2024, 09:09:04 PMBeing from Michigan as well let me think if I can come up with any that you missed.

Most likely:
Interstate: I-69 would be a good choice since any travels between Canada and anywhere SW of Michigan would probably include a clinch of I-69 in the state. I-94 maybe but I think most people would bypass Detroit by using I-69 between Marshall and Port Huron.

I would respectfully disagree with I-69 for having a high percentage of clinchers.  Traffic from Detroit to Grand Rapids using I-94 would be on a brief concurrency with I-69 near Lansing.

Traffic from Detroit to Grand Rapids would be on I-96 not I-94. What does I-69 having a concurrency have to do with anything anyway?

I mis-typed.  I intended to say I-96.  Nobody's perfect.  My point was that there would be a decent percentage of I-69 travelers who would only have the segment west of Lansing.

Why? The segment in Lansing is part of I-69 why would you only think of Detroit-Grand Rapids traffic? I'm talking about through traffic from Canada to points south and west of Michigan and vice versa.

Quote from: Flint1979 on September 07, 2024, 09:07:12 AMWhy? The segment in Lansing is part of I-69 why would you only think of Detroit-Grand Rapids traffic? I'm talking about through traffic from Canada to points south and west of Michigan and vice versa.

If I'm understanding correctly it's because traffic using I-96 from Detroit/Lansing to Grand Rapids uses a piece of I-69 without clinching it. This reduces the clinch rate of I-69.

There's also quite a bit of traffic from Chicagoland and points west that would use I-94 to I-69, missing the southern section of I-69 in Michigan. This also reduces the clinch rate of I-69.

CA:

Most likely: Probably some urban freeway like I-805, I-605, I-710, or I-215

Least likely: Not counting CA-39 and CA-173, which are pretty much impossible to clinch unless you dedicate large amounts of time to hiking for the specific purpose of clinching the route, probably the long cross-state highways like CA-58, CA-299, and CA-78 and the extremely long routes like CA-1, US-101, I-5, and CA-99.

For VA, I agree with the others in saying I-85 for most likely. Even though there are people that exit at US 58 upon leaving NC, it doesn't change my opinion.



Least likely would probably be:

VA 42 - because it's in sections, and it parallels I-81 and US 11 anyway

VA 156 - because its routing is just odd, to say the least

VA 165 - same reason as VA 156

Here is my contribution from Utah:

Most likely

Interstate: I-80. Gave some thought to I-84, but a lot of the traffic coming in from Idaho is likely going to stay on 15 and head down to Salt Lake.

US highway: US 163. There are exactly two small settlements on this route and neither of them have any significant road connections anywhere else. Yes, this is the shortest route that meets the 20-mile threshold, but everything else either has substantial cities along it, major route splits in the middle, or would never be clinched unless you were really trying to (looking at you, 89).

State highway: SR 257, which has just about nothing on it between the endpoints at Hinckley and Milford. There are plenty of other long, remote routes but all generally have some sort of route split or point of interest along the way that people might stop and turn around at.

Least likely

Interstate: I-215. Nobody is going to drive a 3/4 beltway in one go.

US highway: US 6, which is the third-longest US highway in the state, but Utah's US highways generally follow pretty sensible routings. Nobody is going to follow 6 all the way across the state given that US 50 has the exact same endpoints and follows a shorter, more direct route with more freeway.

State highway: leaving aside routes for parking lots and driver's test courses, probably SR 129, which is basically an east-west road stitched to a north-south road in Utah County. From the south end to its US 89 junction in American Fork, it would be substantially more direct to just use 89. SR 113 would also be a contender, but it makes for a good bypass of southern Heber City if US 40 or 189 were ever to close.

Quote from: vdeane on September 06, 2024, 10:17:30 PM

Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 06, 2024, 07:29:54 PMSorry, that would be misinformation that I originally posted.  US-35 officially ends at I-64 and the remainder down to Teays Valley Road is (unposted) Spur US-35.

The mile markers (https://www.google.com/maps/@38.4639389,-81.9073513,3a,48.9y,343.42h,82.58t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sY_-abGGvpB0WAwjlx14wvg!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D7.416134110329281%26panoid%3DY_-abGGvpB0WAwjlx14wvg%26yaw%3D343.4159165190855!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205410&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkwNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D) seem to indicate otherwise.

Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 06, 2024, 07:29:54 PMOn the other hand, since the flyover from US-35 to eastbound I-64 leaves the route before the official endpoint, that would still result in a stub that Clinch purists would consider to not be clinched.  (Assuming that the signage posted above is not considered an "official" exemption).  :banghead:

I think most people recognize "one point per interchange" with respect to counting clinches, although there are exceptions.

WVDOT GIS at https://gis.transportation.wv.gov/measures2.0/ does show US 35 starting at the where the ramp from I-64 EB intersects the 4-lane highway. The part from there south is listed as US 35 Spur. I'm pretty sure that when the route first opened that US 35 mainline was set to start at Teays Valley Road, but I do see Spur 35 was shown by the 2014 Putnam County map.

With that in mind, I would figure that if you hit the ramps at the interchange, you've clinched US 35 so I guess that would make it the highest for US routes in WV.

WV 44 has the same sort of thing happening with what I think US 35 originally had. WV 44 extends just south south of the King Coal Highway mainline to Bens Creek Road, a county route, instead of ending at now/future US 52.

Quote from: thspfc on August 27, 2024, 05:56:50 PMWisconsin

Interstate most likely
I-90; long distance traffic

US route most likely
US-2; US-141 would be the clear winner if not for its irrelevant southern terminus.

State route most likely
WI-173; shortcut road

Interstate least likely
I-94; the Milwaukee diversion both renders it irrelevant as a long distance route and adds tons of local traffic to the road, bringing down the percentage of clinchers

US route least likely
US-151; no reason you would ever clinch it unless you were actively trying to. Even US-12, 14, and 18 could happen accidentally due to Interstate closures/backups.

State route least likely
Tons of candidates but I'd go with WI-73.

Not sure I agree with US 151 as the least likely. If you're from Manitowoc and want to visit Iowa (or vice versa), and decide to take the scenic route to see a little of Madison along the way, you've clinched it in one shot. It won't happen often, especially since the routing through Madison is weird, but it seems more likely than bypassing all of I-94 north of Madison for US 12 on a trip from Minnesota to or from the bit of northeast Illinois that's closer to US 12 than I-90, I-94, or even US 14.

Quote from: TheCatalyst31 on September 14, 2024, 12:56:09 AM

Quote from: thspfc on August 27, 2024, 05:56:50 PMWisconsin

Interstate most likely
I-90; long distance traffic

US route most likely
US-2; US-141 would be the clear winner if not for its irrelevant southern terminus.

State route most likely
WI-173; shortcut road

Interstate least likely
I-94; the Milwaukee diversion both renders it irrelevant as a long distance route and adds tons of local traffic to the road, bringing down the percentage of clinchers

US route least likely
US-151; no reason you would ever clinch it unless you were actively trying to. Even US-12, 14, and 18 could happen accidentally due to Interstate closures/backups.

State route least likely
Tons of candidates but I'd go with WI-73.

Not sure I agree with US 151 as the least likely. If you're from Manitowoc and want to visit Iowa (or vice versa), and decide to take the scenic route to see a little of Madison along the way, you've clinched it in one shot. It won't happen often, especially since the routing through Madison is weird, but it seems more likely than bypassing all of I-94 north of Madison for US 12 on a trip from Minnesota to or from the bit of northeast Illinois that's closer to US 12 than I-90, I-94, or even US 14.

But what's dramatically more likely? That someone takes US151 when in Madison? Or that someone from Manitowoc wants to take the scenic route to Iowa?

^^And with the recent US 45 realignment in the Fond du Lac/Oshkosh area, who would follow that for route continutity?

That's a good point - US 45 is less likely than either of those, especially given it has the concurrency with I-894.

I was thinking about this thread yesterday when driving PA/NY 14 from US 15 at Trout Run (north of Williamsport) to Elmira.  My main question in regard to PA 14 applying to this thread is whether how many travelers take PA/NY 14 from Williamsport to Elmira (instead of US 15, I-99, and I-86) and the concurrencies PA 14 has with PA 414 in Canton and US 6 in Troy.

Quote from: citrus on August 20, 2024, 08:12:21 PMFor California, I like the I-205 suggestion and I think I-505 would fall under the same bucket. I think for an even longer route, I-40 should be under consideration. It's the only other interstate in CA that doesn't involve a major metro area where there will be a lot of local traffic. The only other traffic generator I can really think of is Needles and US-95, but I think that would be quite sparse compared with the long-haul traffic on I-40.

For state routes, similar to the Nevada answers, something like 177 or 371 that connects two larger routes with not much in between stands out. 154 as well - with GPS often sending through traffic that way, I could see more end-to-end 154 traffic than local traffic on that route. 167 and 182 just connect to Nevada, and I doubt there would be much, if any traffic traversing just part of it. Same for 270 to Bodie, and US-199 to Oregon (although 197 will take some away from that). There are also some shorter dead-end routes (207, 217, 282) and shorter connector routes (149, 183) that probably get a lot of full clinches are but are well under 20 miles.

Otherwise - there are a ton of routes that are really long and have sections that are well-travelled but also sections that are not - it would be pretty rare for someone to drive something like 4 or 46 or 152 all the way end-to-end, even though they are quite major routes. To say nothing of 1, 99, or US-101.

California doesn't have many US routes --- only 8 of them! (counting US-395 as 2 separate segments) --- but I'd think that a majority of drivers on US-6, US-97 and US-199 might be thru travelers.

US-6 only has 1 intersection (beyond it's end): CA-120.  Whatever Yosemite & Mammoth to Central Nevada traffic exists would take CA-120.  But who else?  People traveling from South Tahoe to Las Vegas, it's easiest to get to US-95 by traveling west up by Tahoe, as opposed to CA-120, right?  That's what Google Maps suggests.  Mammoth to Vegas traffic would take CA-166 and NV-262 instead of CA-120, US-6, I think.

US-97 would have some "within the city of Weed" traffic, but beyond that it's primarily a connector up to and down from Klamath Falls.  Unless Mount Shasta backpacking/outdoor traffic uses US-97 for a stretch before peeling off?

US-199 is of course the coast-to-inland connector through the Redwoods.  Only 1 intersection with a state route (CA-197) besides its end.  But I suppose there could be southern Oregon traffic that uses CA-197 as a cutoff to get to US-199 and the inland.  Curious what those numbers would be.

Quote from: keithvh on September 20, 2024, 06:28:13 PMUS-6 only has 1 intersection (beyond it's end): CA-120.  Whatever Yosemite & Mammoth to Central Nevada traffic exists would take CA-120.  But who else?  People traveling from South Tahoe to Las Vegas, it's easiest to get to US-95 by traveling west up by Tahoe, as opposed to CA-120, right?  That's what Google Maps suggests.  Mammoth to Vegas traffic would take CA-166 and NV-262 instead of CA-120, US-6, I think.

I was on a road trip driving back to the Bay Area from Panaca, NV and Cathedral Gorge, and that took me right along US-6 to CA-120!  :D

Quote from: citrus on September 20, 2024, 07:29:58 PMI was on a road trip driving back to the Bay Area from Panaca, NV and Cathedral Gorge, and that took me right along US-6 to CA-120!  :D

Nice, we found somebody!  That's DEFINITELY a "use case" for using only California's portion of US-6 that's north of CA-120.

Bay Area/Stockton/Modesto to Tonopah/Ely/Pioche/Caliente/Cedar City, UT/Bryce Canyon.  A real adventurous sort could even take that route to get to Denver.

British Columbia:

Most likely is probably BC 97-C. There's basically nothing to get off the road for, and it serves as the major freeway route between the lower mainland and the central Okanagan. Honorable mention to BC 37-A, but local traffic to Stewart might not hit the end of the highway.

Least likely I'm going to go with TCH-1. Given the massive quantities of local traffic in Victoria, Nanaimo, Greater Vancouver, and Kamloops, along with the fact that it isn't actually the direct route to anywhere (Victoria to Vancouver is shorter via BC-17; Vancouver to Kamloops you'd take BC-5). Honorable mentions here to BC 97 which is really more like 3 different highways strung together and TCH-16, which also has a ferry to Haida Gwaii, and a portion near Alberta that is part of the quickest route between Edmonton and Vancouver.

OK:
I-40
US 377
OK 364

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 20, 2024, 12:51:28 PMMy examples from Kansas:
US Highway: US73 (91.12 miles) - Not a lot of great options in KS to choose from over the 20 mile limit, but this is a fairly direct route if you're going from the western side of the KC metro to Lincoln.

I wouldn't go that way even if I were in western Wyandotte County. I would take 435 to 29 to 2 to 2. I wouldn't consider going any other way.

QuoteState Highway: K-10 (36.611 miles) - Depending on traffic, the quickest way from Topeka to the southern portion of the KC metro.

And it's toll-free.

QuoteUS Highway: US159 (52.3 miles) - It's easier to have traveled this via the concurrency with US73 than it is to have taken its small independent section.

When I lived in Kansas City nearly 25 years ago, I got bored one night and drove the entire length of US 159, just to say that I did.

Quote from: hbelkins on August 19, 2024, 03:03:28 PMFor Kentucky, the most likely would be either I-24 or I-71.

Now that you mention it, I have all of 71 in Kentucky, plus the Ohio stretch south of Columbus. I never thought of it.

I'll take a crack at North Carolina and say possibly I-95, as all our other major thru routes serve too many major population centers to be considered. I was going to do US and State highways too, but there's far too many small segments somewhere that are replaced by a far better route, excluding them as choices and I don't have the sanity to deal with this right now.

New Jersey, so this is a tough one.

Most Likely -
Interstate: I-195. The areas I-195 serves (with the exceptions of endpoints) aren't as densely developed as other interstates in NJ, and I-195 is an east-west route with few strange turns and spaced out exits.

US Route: US 40. Sparse development for a large portion of the route.

State Route: NJ 700 (NJ Turnpike) or NJ 446 (Atlantic City Expressway). Similar reasons as each other with widely spaced exits and less development near the roads.

Least Likely -

Interstate: I-295. This beats I-287 because I-295 hooks to bypass Trenton in a 3/4 loop, and I-295 north of Bordentown isn't really a "through route" for longer destinations. I-287 at the very least is a through route for large trucks to go from the NJ Turnpike to the NY Thruway.

US Route: Pick your route here. I'll pick US 9.

State Route: Again, pick your route here. I'll pick the Garden State Parkway (NJ 444).

I-195 as most likely to be clinched?  Over the NJTP?

Quote from: Rothman on November 18, 2024, 12:21:35 PMI-195 as most likely to be clinched?  Over the NJTP?

The NJTP is not an Interstate Highway from Exit 1 to 6, so that explains my choice. If you meant I-95 (PA Turnpike connector + NJTP from Exit 6 onwards), then you have a point.

Quote from: tmthyvs on October 01, 2024, 04:22:59 PMBritish Columbia:

Most likely is probably BC 97-C. There's basically nothing to get off the road for, and it serves as the major freeway route between the lower mainland and the central Okanagan. Honorable mention to BC 37-A, but local traffic to Stewart might not hit the end of the highway.

I'm going to need to adjust that, since I clearly forgot that BC 97-C also includes the stretch west of Merritt. New favorites are 37-A, 395, and 97-D.

For California, the eastern half of CA-169 is probably the least likely to be clinched. This is a route that is already a spur of a fairly remote route, and the only reason you'd ever be on it is if you want to go to the native reservation in the area. (It also provides alternate access into the Redwood Curtain, via the Bald Hills Road, but this is not a road the typical person would ever choose over the more sensible CA-299 to the south).

It's basically a dead end route. Of course, historically, this was part of the original CA-96 and was intended to reach the coast and US-101. But the middle segment that follows the Klamath River has never been built. And the western half of CA-169 is short enough and near some popular tourist traps that it's far more likely to be clinched than the eastern half.

I would have said CA-266, but as both ends continue into Nevada, it likely has more traffic than I would assume.

Other short routes I can think of, like CA-197 or CA-207, are alternate ways to reach popular tourist destinations. And are under 10 miles. Eastern CA-169 is around 20 miles and doesn't go to any significant tourist areas.

Here in Wisconsin, I would also think that US 53 has a very low rate of being driven from end to end in single trips.  Also, present US 141 has that city street section throgh the Green Bay area.

Mike

Louisiana
Most Likely:

Interstate: I-12. Other than some commuters hopping on and off in Baton Rouge metro, this interstate has the greatest chance of the Louisiana interstates to be driven from end to end as it is the shortest route for I-10 travelers.

US Highway: Honestly it's US 63. Most other routes are parallel to interstate corridors or just wacky end to end routes that a person wouldnt normally take (ex: US 84). I'd venture to say most people traveling southbound from El Dorado AR crossing the state line and going all the way to I-20, and that clinches all of 63 here.

State highway: LA 12 or LA 66 are good contenders here. LA 66 is the main entrance to Angola penitentiary from US 61. Other than a turn off to Mississippi, most are probably driving the full length. LA 12 is the more logical drive continuing from US 190 west into TX rather than following 190 north and west again.

Least likely:
Interstate: I-49. Nobody with the gap from the ICC in Shreveport is going to follow I-49 to what was the northbound terminus at I-20 and then snake a few miles in Shreveport to pick it back up again at I-220 to go to Arkansas. If they're driving I-49 from the south and planning to drive thru to Arkansas they'll take the Inner Loop LA 3132. Honorable mention: I-10

US highway: Either US 90 for such a long parallel to I-10 and its long route towards the coast and New Orleans. Or US 371 because of it's funky routing

State highway: Lots of Louisiana state highways that could work here because of convoluted routings that no one would drive end to end (LA 112, LA 15, LA 16) but LA 10 is a good Louisiana example of not really being able to drive it end to end. Nobody is going to drive LA 10 to the old ferry landing in Melville, backtrack and go around to the other side of the Atchafalaya River down a dirt road LA 10 just to finish it all unless they're a hard core road geek  :biggrin:

Texas... oh boy. Because of the size of the state, the population density follows Interstate 35 in East Texas with Houston being connected via Interstate 45. Between Interstate 35 and El Paso, the population density drops off, and you can trace the interstates by the population centers. My guesses...

Most likely... Unsigned I-345/US-75 in Dallas. :D Follow that with I-40 in Amarillo in North Texas.

Least likely... I-44 in Wichita Falls. It's a freeway stub that doesn't connect to any other Texas freeways, and goes into Oklahoma.

Quote from: mgk920 on December 07, 2024, 09:24:26 PMHere in Wisconsin, I would also think that US 53 has a very low rate of being driven from end to end in single trips.

Mike

It could be one of those routes that could be truncated from La Crosse to I-94 and hardly anyone would notice.

As to longish roads that are likely to be clinched in California, I agree that I-40 is one, for obvious reasons. But while I think most people on I-80 aren't driving the whole thing, San Francisco is the biggest destination along it, and I'll bet quite a few people from out of state drive the whole thing. I did once back in the 1990s, when I was in a hurry to get across country, pretty much staying on I-80 all the way from Chicago into downtown SF. That's probably also true about I-80 in the other western states, too. A lot of through traffic.

Another possibility is CA-14. Lots of Angelinos drive the whole thing on their weekend ski trips to Mammoth. Another would be US-50, since it's a touristy road with no other major roads off it.

Quote from: ZLoth on February 09, 2025, 10:23:14 AMTexas... oh boy. Because of the size of the state, the population density follows Interstate 35 in East Texas with Houston being connected via Interstate 45. Between Interstate 35 and El Paso, the population density drops off, and you can trace the interstates by the population centers. My guesses...

Most likely... Unsigned I-345/US-75 in Dallas. :D Follow that with I-40 in Amarillo in North Texas.

Least likely... I-44 in Wichita Falls. It's a freeway stub that doesn't connect to any other Texas freeways, and goes into Oklahoma.

I don't think I can agree on I-44 being the least likely to be clinched. Any loop or partial loop (I-410, I-610,I-635, I-820) would be less likely. The one time I was on I-44 in Texas, I clinched it. In fact, I would argue that it would be the most likely 2di to clinch in Texas just because it's so short, but wouldn't qualify based on the rules I outlined in the OP.

It doesn't look like Arizona has been done yet, so here are my inputs:


Most likely to clinch

Interstate: I-15 (29.32 mi), no question. It's part of the fastest route between Los Angeles and much of the rest of the nation. The stretch is pretty rural, and there's only one major exit. The only way you might pass through here without clinching I-15 is if you decide to get part of the historic US 91.

U.S. Highway: US 163 (23.50 mi). As with I-15, there isn't much to do along this stretch of road. Also pretty scenic, US 163 runs through the hot tourist destination of Monument Valley. There isn't much to speak of about camping, so if you get on this road, you're likely continuing to Utah.

State Route: This is probably SR 72 (37.30 mi). This route mostly serves as a cutoff from US 60 to Parker. Bouse is located in the middle of the route, but that town doesn't look like it's doing too well. I wouldn't view it as the most alluring of attractions. Not many people take this route, but most of them clinch it.


Least likely to clinch

Interstate: I-19 (64.37 mi) fits here. The majority of it is pretty straight-forward, just a spur from Tucson to Nogales, but the routing gets pretty funky when you enter downtown Nogales. The route utilizes zigging and zagging along surface streets to get to the port of entry.
I-10 (398.88 mi) could also work here, since many people heading east from Los Angeles take SR 85 -> I-8 to bypass Phoenix. It's a bit longer though.

U.S. Highway: This one might be US 180 (284.82 mi), at least in terms of the ratio of people traveling this route to actually clinching it. The western bit of US 180 is the fastest path from Flagstaff to the Grand Canyon, but outside of that and the I-40 concurrency, the rest of the route doesn't have much utilization. It just passes through rural eastern Arizona.

State Route: There are a bunch of useless SR spurs in Arizona, but here it might be SR 99 (44.71 mi). Outside of its concurrency with I-40, there isn't much reason to be on this road unless you live on a ranch or in Leupp.