AARoads Forum

With the NFL currently on Day 109 of its lockout and the NBA heading for a lockout, what are the chances of both leagues having some or all of their seasons wiped out due to greed?

The NFL has a way better chance than the NBA but IMO I just cannot see DeMaurice Smith giving in to the owners and the players in the NBA won't budge on how much money they might lose.  Also I've heard that the NFL owners had money saved up in case the season was lost.

NFL: What we're waiting for is a court ruling on the money that the networks promised to pay the owners if there were no games and another ruling on the players getting a big chunk of change.  If one side wins that fight, the other will be more willing to negotiate. If both sides get their money or neither do, with both sides lawyered up, the process is going to grind slowly and kill the season.  That's my guess for how it goes.

NBA: Pre-season is not until October.  Nothing of substance will happen this summer.  When fall comes around, we'll see if positions harden.  If they do, there goes the NBA season.  A spring settlement won't save it and the winter will be full of discontent.  Once again, this is my guess.

NCAA: Should pro football be KO'ed, expect the college game to show up big time on Sunday.  On occasion we get a game for that day of the week already.  With so many teams wanting tube time, they'll be willing to play on Sunday just as they already do on the other six days of the week with varying frequency.  As for college basketball, it already had a decent presence on Sunday.  The weekend is such a prime time for sports that we'll still have games to watch. 

MLB: If pro football and pro basketball are MIA, look for a shot at better ratings for baseball in the fall.  Pennant races, playoffs and the World Series have gotten buried by competing with the pigskins flying and the dribble-bounce crowd getting ready for their season.  Given some room to breathe and showcase their premier part of the season is a recipe to revive baseball ratings.

NHL, NASCAR, PGA, MMA, X-Games, pro wrestling, boxing, soccer etc. get a chance to see if they can rise up more if the NFL and NBA are off the air.  People want to be entertained after all!

Some things we won't see that were done before: CFL and replacement player games.

I'm curious as to how the law of unintended consequences plays out.  Some pro football players could use a season off to let their bodies heal.  Rookies will fall way behind in developing.  Free agents having no NFL chance due to the lockout could power up the UFL and CFL.  Will this lead to someone thinking they can start the next WFL or USFL?  There's more scenarios than freeways in SoCal for how it all winds up and it won't be wound up for a couple of years at least if the 2011-2012 season gets sacked.  Oh well, the talking heads on ESPN will have lots to talk about...LOL!

Rick

Is there an "I'll care (maybe) after baseball's over" option?  :-)

Well said, nexus73!

I don't really understand everything about each lockout, but the NBA's been through it with the '98-99 season: The guaranteed min/max for rookies, sliding-scale minimums for experienced players, and with the league's attendance and TV ratings on the rise, this is their chance to put on over on the NFL (which has more issues at stake). One problem for the NBA is that their off-season is a much shorter time span. By August, they're in training/camp again.

Personally, it would really suck if both (or either) lost a season. Some of the smaller towns in the South could honestly care less, from what I've discussed with others in passing. College ball reigns supreme. I'd also imagine this is the break NASCAR has been waiting for, with shrinking attendance at most tracks, poorer ratings compared to a decade ago.

Quote from: nexus73 on June 30, 2011, 12:37:07 AM

I'm curious as to how the law of unintended consequences plays out.  Some pro football players could use a season off to let their bodies heal.  Rookies will fall way behind in developing.  Free agents having no NFL chance due to the lockout could power up the UFL and CFL.  Will this lead to someone thinking they can start the next WFL or USFL?  There's more scenarios than freeways in SoCal for how it all winds up and it won't be wound up for a couple of years at least if the 2011-2012 season gets sacked.  Oh well, the talking heads on ESPN will have lots to talk about...LOL!

Rick

The CFL might get a boost. On the other hand, could we also imagine the unthinkable, some NFL teams moving to the UFL if the situation goes worse?

However, we might check an eye on the Arena football leagues like the AFL(Arena Football league) and the IFL (Indoor Football league), a NFL lookout might help to boost the popularity of these 2 leagues. Some other sports not highly popular like soccer (MLS) and lacrosse (both outdoor with the MLL and indoor with the NLL) having a boost as well.

As for basketball, will a new league might emerge to jump on the opportunity created by a NBA lookout?

I'd expect to see a major increase in interest in 'fútbol' in North America should both seasons be lost, too.

Mike

Quote from: mgk920 on June 30, 2011, 01:39:04 PM
I'd expect to see a major increase in interest in 'fútbol' in North America should both seasons be lost, too.

Mike

I think that's slowly becoming the case in larger cities, especially those with a large  foreign-born population. The rest of America is only going to care in tiny, sporadic bunches at best. Association Football is televised on a totally different schedule, so its popularity is restricted to a very loyal but small core of fans...sort of like Grand Prix racing, too many people are at church or haven't woken up yet by the time the event is over. Tivo and DVR will help a little, but I think there's still a mysterious xenophobic divide that most Americans have towards sporting events, whereas we're generally cool with foreign cars, food, fashion, music, et cetera.

Quote from: nexus73 on June 30, 2011, 12:37:07 AMWill this lead to someone thinking they can start the next WFL or USFL?

Someone is trying to restart the USFL (http://www.newusfl.com/), although it was supposed to begin last year and now it is planned to begin next year.  That should tell you how well it is going.

Quote from: formulanone on June 30, 2011, 02:24:37 PM

Quote from: mgk920 on June 30, 2011, 01:39:04 PM
I'd expect to see a major increase in interest in 'fútbol' in North America should both seasons be lost, too.

Mike

I think that's slowly becoming the case in larger cities, especially those with a large  foreign-born population. The rest of America is only going to care in tiny, sporadic bunches at best. Association Football is televised on a totally different schedule, so its popularity is restricted to a very loyal but small core of fans...sort of like Grand Prix racing, too many people are at church or haven't woken up yet by the time the event is over. Tivo and DVR will help a little, but I think there's still a mysterious xenophobic divide that most Americans have towards sporting events, whereas we're generally cool with foreign cars, food, fashion, music, et cetera.

Can't one just not give a damn about soccer without being called "xenophobic"?  We have our own sports.  That ought to be okay.

^ I was contrasting, mainly to support a point that roughly half of America is okay with most foreign things, but sport ain't one of them, statistically.

Truth is, our plate is full, and there's only a smidgen of room left for other pastimes, so the general public prefers it on a grand stage: Olympics (mainly because Team USA fares near or at the top of the medal count every time out), Wimbledon, a couple of golf tourneys, Daytona & Indy 500s, and not much else after the four major sports, college ball, and even prep schools have our attention. There's only so much time in the day, after all.

Here's an interesting fact: The NFL lockout is already the longest work stoppage in NFL history and the fourth longest work stoppage in pro sports history after the 2004-05 NHL lockout (309 days), the 1994-95 MLB strike (233 days), and the 1998-99 NBA lockout (203 days).

Here's what Americans prefer in sports: The four major sports (well, only two as of now), college sports, the Olympics, the majors in golf and tennis, the World Cup, the Daytona and Indy 500s, and high school sports (not necessarily in that order).

Quote from: ftballfan on June 30, 2011, 05:01:46 PM
Here's what Americans prefer in sports:

games, not labor disputes.

maybe we need a Professional Worker Strife League, where every Sunday our great athletes in the field of performance-oriented grievance airing can duke it out, and the top ten displays of jaw-dropping work stoppage can be replayed on SportsCenter the next day.

[ESPN]did you see his response to that collective bargaining proposal?  oh, now that was JACKED UP![/ESPN]

I guess NASCAR might not be the only racing series who might get fans from the NFL/NBA lockout. From what I saw at http://www.autoblog.com/2011/06/30/v8-supercar-series-coming-to-austin-in-2013/ Austin will host a special race of the Australian V8 Supercars with the Aussie Ford Falcon and the Holden.

Quote from: mgk920 on June 30, 2011, 01:39:04 PM
I'd expect to see a major increase in interest in 'fútbol' in North America should both seasons be lost, too.

Mike

Doubtful.  I already wouldn't miss either the NBA or the NFL, and I don't much care for the slow game of soccer.  There's the NCAA football and basketball as well as the NHL.  And I much prefer the NHL to soccer, the NBA, or the NFL.  Gimme rugby or lacrosse instead of boring soccer.

Quote from: Michael in Philly on June 30, 2011, 02:31:55 PM

Quote from: formulanone on June 30, 2011, 02:24:37 PM

Quote from: mgk920 on June 30, 2011, 01:39:04 PM
I'd expect to see a major increase in interest in 'fútbol' in North America should both seasons be lost, too.

Mike

I think that's slowly becoming the case in larger cities, especially those with a large  foreign-born population. The rest of America is only going to care in tiny, sporadic bunches at best. Association Football is televised on a totally different schedule, so its popularity is restricted to a very loyal but small core of fans...sort of like Grand Prix racing, too many people are at church or haven't woken up yet by the time the event is over. Tivo and DVR will help a little, but I think there's still a mysterious xenophobic divide that most Americans have towards sporting events, whereas we're generally cool with foreign cars, food, fashion, music, et cetera.

Can't one just not give a damn about soccer without being called "xenophobic"?  We have our own sports.  That ought to be okay.

Not if you're hating on the Phillies.

Quote from: nexus73 on June 30, 2011, 12:37:07 AM
NFL: What we're waiting for is a court ruling on the money that the networks promised to pay the owners if there were no games and another ruling on the players getting a big chunk of change.  If one side wins that fight, the other will be more willing to negotiate. If both sides get their money or neither do, with both sides lawyered up, the process is going to grind slowly and kill the season.  That's my guess for how it goes.

The talking heads on the 4 letter network seem to be more positive about an agreement for the NFL before training camp starts. Historicly, The NFL players "union" folds more easily than a futon, so I don't see this draging on past September, at the latest.

Quote from: nexus73 on June 30, 2011, 12:37:07 AM
NCAA: Should pro football be KO'ed, expect the college game to show up big time on Sunday.  On occasion we get a game for that day of the week already.  With so many teams wanting tube time, they'll be willing to play on Sunday just as they already do on the other six days of the week with varying frequency.  As for college basketball, it already had a decent presence on Sunday.  The weekend is such a prime time for sports that we'll still have games to watch.  

Going back to the voices at Bristol again, College games won't show up on Sunday because networks and schools don't want to change the dates on short notice (FWIW) and (more importantly) the TV folks don't want to schedule college games on Sunday and then be caught with the NFL returning (be it going against their programing or trying to reshuffle games (again) to accomdate the NFL)

Quote from: nexus73 on June 30, 2011, 12:37:07 AM
MLB: If pro football and pro basketball are MIA, look for a shot at better ratings for baseball in the fall.  Pennant races, playoffs and the World Series have gotten buried by competing with the pigskins flying and the dribble-bounce crowd getting ready for their season.  Given some room to breathe and showcase their premier part of the season is a recipe to revive baseball ratings.

My understanding is that MLB still draws better ratings than NBA and NHL (when comparing regular season game ratings). No one pays attention to the early baseball season while the NBA/NHL playoffs are occuring. No one pays attention to early NBA and NHL games when the baseball post-season is occuring.

Quote from: nexus73 on June 30, 2011, 12:37:07 AM
Some things we won't see that were done before: CFL and replacement player games.

CFL season started last night. NFL channel was showing a CFL game. We'll find out soon enough if people are interested in Canadian football, in lieu of a lack of the American variety.

Quote from: nexus73 on June 30, 2011, 12:37:07 AM
I'm curious as to how the law of unintended consequences plays out.  Some pro football players could use a season off to let their bodies heal.  Rookies will fall way behind in developing.  Free agents having no NFL chance due to the lockout could power up the UFL and CFL.  Will this lead to someone thinking they can start the next WFL or USFL?  There's more scenarios than freeways in SoCal for how it all winds up and it won't be wound up for a couple of years at least if the 2011-2012 season gets sacked.  Oh well, the talking heads on ESPN will have lots to talk about...LOL!

Rick

Quote from: Hot Rod Hootenanny on July 01, 2011, 12:47:56 AM

Quote from: Michael in Philly on June 30, 2011, 02:31:55 PM

Quote from: formulanone on June 30, 2011, 02:24:37 PM

Quote from: mgk920 on June 30, 2011, 01:39:04 PM
I'd expect to see a major increase in interest in 'fútbol' in North America should both seasons be lost, too.

Mike

I think that's slowly becoming the case in larger cities, especially those with a large  foreign-born population. The rest of America is only going to care in tiny, sporadic bunches at best. Association Football is televised on a totally different schedule, so its popularity is restricted to a very loyal but small core of fans...sort of like Grand Prix racing, too many people are at church or haven't woken up yet by the time the event is over. Tivo and DVR will help a little, but I think there's still a mysterious xenophobic divide that most Americans have towards sporting events, whereas we're generally cool with foreign cars, food, fashion, music, et cetera.

Can't one just not give a damn about soccer without being called "xenophobic"?  We have our own sports.  That ought to be okay.

Not if you're hating on the Phillies.

Hating on the Phillies?  Who's hating on the Phillies?  The Phillies are god.  (At least Cliff is; I was there Tuesday.)  Which is why I have little energy for other teams - even the Eagles - the last few years.

NFL has gotten friendly as of late. I predict two more weeks of winter for them, just in time for training camp to open. NBA is more wishful thinking for me to want to fail, but they're all just so stuck up that I'd love for them to miss part or all of the season because none of them have ever learned how to compromise.

I think it's interesting how 1) these guys are no matter what agreement is reached going to both get millions of dollars out of the game, and they're trifling over a small percentage of the total, thereby risking the whole thing 2) more people are jacked into the details of these negotiations than the Congressional debt ceiling negotiations, which have the potential to fuck up way more than X number of sports games should an agreement not be reached.

Quote from: Steve on July 01, 2011, 04:41:45 AM
NFL has gotten friendly as of late. I predict two more weeks of winter for them, just in time for training camp to open. NBA is more wishful thinking for me to want to fail, but they're all just so stuck up that I'd love for them to miss part or all of the season because none of them have ever learned how to compromise.

If the NBA fail, will the NBA hire some replacement players?

Quote from: Scott5114 on July 01, 2011, 12:41:34 PM
I think it's interesting how 1) these guys are no matter what agreement is reached going to both get millions of dollars out of the game, and they're trifling over a small percentage of the total, thereby risking the whole thing 2) more people are jacked into the details of these negotiations than the Congressional debt ceiling negotiations, which have the potential to fuck up way more than X number of sports games should an agreement not be reached.

I'm keeping a close eye on the debt ceiling as well, as if the U.S. hits its debt ceiling, all 300+ million of us are screwed. Politicians also need to learn how to live within their means. The national debt is currently hovering around $14,500,000,000,000 (that's 14.5 trillion dollars), which is almost as high as our GDP.

I don't expect an NBA season.  The NBA is David Stern stupid, and I don't think the players are willing to take a hit in the wallet to make up for that little twit's ineptitude.  

I haven't cared much about the NBA since Jordan retired, for the second time, from the Bulls.  IMO, they're a bunch of overpaid prima donnas.

I have no idea about the NFL strike.  I usually don't start watching the NFL until Thanksgiving after NASCAR season ends.

At the peak ratings a couple of years ago, only the NFL had more viewers than NASCAR.  But, things have declined recently with all ten races of NASCAR's playoffs (a.k.a. Chase for The Championship) on ESPN.  If the NFL's not there, I think there's a high probability of those races moving to ABC.

Quote from: Stephane Dumas on July 01, 2011, 01:13:18 PM

Quote from: Steve on July 01, 2011, 04:41:45 AM
NFL has gotten friendly as of late. I predict two more weeks of winter for them, just in time for training camp to open. NBA is more wishful thinking for me to want to fail, but they're all just so stuck up that I'd love for them to miss part or all of the season because none of them have ever learned how to compromise.

If the NBA fail, will the NBA hire some replacement players?

Since the NBA is preventing (i.e.locking out) players from their "job", instead of the players walking away (i.e. going on strike) from their job. No, there will be no replacement players for this conflict.

Yawn. As long as college football and the English Primere League are still on, I'm happy. Although I was going to try to make it to a Bucs game this year.

If the NBA fail, we could ponder if there might be some wise guys who could create a rival league to fit the void? Or even some NBA teams who could decide to left the NBA (just to annoy Stern) to create their own league?

Quote from: Stephane Dumas on July 08, 2011, 03:59:17 PM
If the NBA fail, we could ponder if there might be some wise guys who could create a rival league to fit the void? Or even some NBA teams who could decide to left the NBA (just to annoy Stern) to create their own league?

Deron Williams has already stated he might play in Turkey if FIBA allows him too, so there's a start.

I guess half of this thread is now resolved.  And unless for some reason you're really into the Hall Of Fame Game, it seems there's no real damage (to fans) done.

Awesome.

I don't expect the NBA season to happen this year at this rate.

Me neither. It seems like each side can't even agree within its own ranks, let alone with the other side.

Players care more about adding to their already ludicrous bank account than they do about the game.  They love the money more than their job.  If they players did love the game, they'd keep playing and take what the owners already offer them, which is astronomical as it is.

On the other hand, owners don't all agree either. The "smaller" franchises aren't doing well, and the thought of contraction comes up. Revenue sharing works in the other three major American sports leagues, there's no reason it can't work in the NBA. Owner expenses have gone up, and they are the ones that are agreeing to these ginormous contracts (the old collective bargaining agreement and greedy agents are also part of the plan). You can't entirely blame the players for this.

Most people are taking pay cuts left and right in this economy, losing your fanbase over 5-7% is silly, and worse for buisnesses. A third party that's not afraid to explain how ridiculous this is would be helpful. On the other hand, this isn't helped by a couple of players saying things like "master/slave-mentality", and owners getting fined thousands of clams for essentially expressing their First Amendment rights without resorting to slander or other law-breaking.

To paraphrase Colin Cowheard, this is turning into a dumpster fire.

Quote from: jgb191 on November 04, 2011, 11:02:54 PM
Players care more about adding to their already ludicrous bank account than they do about the game.  They love the money more than their job.  If they players did love the game, they'd keep playing and take what the owners already offer them, which is astronomical as it is.

At this point, I think they love arguing more than they love the money. Otherwise, they would have given in before the games were supposed to start, so they don't lose the money they're arguing over.

No NBA this season?  I won't miss it.  Never watched the NBA much anyway.  Back to the NHL, the NFL, and the NCAA.

Quote from: Brandon on November 05, 2011, 04:05:19 PM
No NBA this season?  I won't miss it.  Never watched the NBA much anyway.  Back to the NHL, the NFL, and the NCAA.

What's pathetic is that Bettman and the NHL owners will find a way to fail to take advantage of the situation.

Quote from: formulanone on November 05, 2011, 09:53:35 AM
On the other hand, owners don't all agree either. The "smaller" franchises aren't doing well, and the thought of contraction comes up. Revenue sharing works in the other three major American sports leagues, there's no reason it can't work in the NBA. Owner expenses have gone up, and they are the ones that are agreeing to these ginormous contracts (the old collective bargaining agreement and greedy agents are also part of the plan). You can't entirely blame the players for this.

Most people are taking pay cuts left and right in this economy, losing your fanbase over 5-7% is silly, and worse for buisnesses. A third party that's not afraid to explain how ridiculous this is would be helpful. On the other hand, this isn't helped by a couple of players saying things like "master/slave-mentality", and owners getting fined thousands of clams for essentially expressing their First Amendment rights without resorting to slander or other law-breaking.

To paraphrase Colin Cowheard, this is turning into a dumpster fire.

I'm wondering if it wouldn't be a bad idea to consider following the lead of many of those foreign 'fútbol' federations and have North American professional basketball convert to a promotion-relegation system.  Note that from all that I am aware of, the lower-level professional leagues are not doing that badly and to give their teams a chance to advance to the first division (the NBA) while relegating failing NBA (first division) teams to a lower level league where they would be more competitive could stoke some more fan interest and competitive balance.

This would solve the problem of the ever failing and moving 'patsy' teams and with promotion-relegation, there will be no more need for either a salary cap nor non-league wide revenue sharing.

Mike

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7209093/nba-lockout-players-reject-david-stern-ultimatum-offer-want-further-talks

The players once again bite the hand(s) that feed them.  Tomorrow is the last day to salvage something before the season is lost.

Looks like the NBA lockout may be over.

Edit: link didn't work from my phone so I'll repost when I'm on a computer.