This is a general 2012 Hurricane Season thread.
We had a feeling it was going to be a busy year since the forecasts called for it to be quiet. Whenever they call for a busy year, it's quiet and whenever they call for a quiet year, it's busy. :)
Here in Brevard, we had a few rain bands from Baryl last month. Not much to write home about. For Debby, it's been a nonstop progression of outer rain bands since yesterday. We had a few tornado warnings last night, but thankfully none touched down here. We've had rain but nothing like they've had northwest of here.
I know we have a few posters from the panhandle. How are y'all doing up there? It looks pretty wet.
Wife and kids are in Orlando/Disney during Debby. Seems to have kicked off a little early this year...(please, not another 2005).
Pretty quite in Okaloosa County, breezy to 40mph the last few days, 9' surf and rip currents but no rain to speak of, less than a quarter of an inch.
My brother is in Gainesville. He says the water was starting to come up out of the floor tiles.
Here in Jacksonville/Middleburg lots of rain. Flooded roads. I -10 is closed this mronign in Baker and Columbia Counties from US 90 at Sanderson to I-75
Man, Debby just dumped the rain all over the Florida Panhandle! They've been having a major drought there so they need the rain.
Just not all at once...
Quote from: formulanone on June 25, 2012, 10:32:18 PM
Wife and kids are in Orlando/Disney during Debby. Seems to have kicked off a little early this year...(please, not another 2005).
One thing I have noticed over the years, is that whenever it is dry in the Midwest during the spring and early summer, the Gulf is hotter and seems to invite more hurricanes. 2012 is shaping up that way.
Quote from: Brandon on June 27, 2012, 07:26:27 AM
Quote from: formulanone on June 25, 2012, 10:32:18 PM
Wife and kids are in Orlando/Disney during Debby. Seems to have kicked off a little early this year...(please, not another 2005).
One thing I have noticed over the years, is that whenever it is dry in the Midwest during the spring and early summer, the Gulf is hotter and seems to invite more hurricanes. 2012 is shaping up that way.
I hadn't heard that. Interesting.
At least here in Brevard, I don't ever recall being so close to the path of the eye/COC of a TS with so few weather effects. It's been breezy and we've had a few small rain bands the past few days, but we've otherwise felt no effects since last Saturday.
I wish a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane would hit a sparsely-populated part of the Gulf coast, bend around and park over my house for about a week. Summers in Texas typically suck.
Quote from: Road Hog on June 30, 2012, 06:21:34 AM
I wish a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane would hit a sparsely-populated part of the Gulf coast, bend around and park over my house for about a week. Summers in Texas typically suck.
The early indicators were for a "moist" pattern over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, at least until El Nino returns. With Alberto, Beryl and Debby thus far, southeast GA, north FL and coastal SC have vastly moved out of drought conditions probably thanks in part to this pattern: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ We'll have to see how the next two months play out with any system that moves into or develops in the GOM.
Looks like we're in for a wet Monday next week... assuming the forecast doesn't change like it usually does.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nhc.noaa.gov%2Fstorm_graphics%2FAT09%2Frefresh%2FAL0912W5_NL%2Bgif%2F175223W5_NL_sm.gif&hash=eee33b8b51db3fee4e225335ee7a4a344381994f)
Quote from: realjd on August 22, 2012, 03:17:30 PM
Looks like we're in for a wet Monday next week... assuming the forecast doesn't change like it usually does.
They have propagated westward today after going eastward yesterday. A year ago at this time models had the Florida peninsula in the cross hairs. We know what ended up eventually happening with that...
Best for those in the southeast and all along the east coast to keep track of Isaac and see what happens. Today the storm has struggled to get more organized, which might allow for more westward motion before finding the weakness to the northwest.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmy.sfwmd.gov%2Fsfwmd%2Fcommon%2Fimages%2Fweather%2Fplots%2Fstorm_09.gif&hash=97afd850e3788f937503ee610056475609c35499)
Here's hoping for more westward movement... Oklahoma could use a lot of rain.
The 11AM forecast from the NHC seems to be west of most of the model tracks.
Of course it's usually the people outside of the Cone of Doom that should be paying the most attention because it's probably headed toward them! :)
Quote from: Alex on August 22, 2012, 05:21:47 PM
Quote from: realjd on August 22, 2012, 03:17:30 PM
Looks like we're in for a wet Monday next week... assuming the forecast doesn't change like it usually does.
They have propagated westward today after going eastward yesterday. A year ago at this time models had the Florida peninsula in the cross hairs. We know what ended up eventually happening with that...
Best for those in the southeast and all along the east coast to keep track of Isaac and see what happens. Today the storm has struggled to get more organized, which might allow for more westward motion before finding the weakness to the northwest.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmy.sfwmd.gov%2Fsfwmd%2Fcommon%2Fimages%2Fweather%2Fplots%2Fstorm_09.gif&hash=97afd850e3788f937503ee610056475609c35499)
Wow, four models bring it pretty close to home, but its early yet.
Quote from: allniter89 on August 23, 2012, 04:08:31 PM
Wow, four models bring it pretty close to home, but its early yet.
Yup I went for a bike ride at 1 and they were still clumped along the west coast of Florida. Come back and look at 4 and they shifted westward.
I regularly follow Hardcoreweather (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/forum.php) and Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/). Levi is still thinking a run east of the state of Florida. My friend at HCW is also still thinking an easterly course. Time will tell...
Must restore that hurricane message icon at some point...
Quote from: Alex on August 23, 2012, 06:08:17 PM
Quote from: allniter89 on August 23, 2012, 04:08:31 PM
Wow, four models bring it pretty close to home, but its early yet.
Yup I went for a bike ride at 1 and they were still clumped along the west coast of Florida. Come back and look at 4 and they shifted westward.
I regularly follow Hardcoreweather (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/forum.php) and Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/). Levi is still thinking a run east of the state of Florida. My friend at HCW is also still thinking an easterly course. Time will tell...
Must restore that hurricane message icon at some point...
Well they shifter back east/north for us on the peninsula. The TS watch ends at Sebastian Inlet, right by me, but I expect that to shift north at the 2AM update. The local mets are forecasting TS level winds for Brevard starting around 8PM Sunday. We had 60-70 mph winds come through a few days ago with one of our normal afternoon tstorms, so TS level winds aren't really concerning anyone at this point.
We're just seeing the first effects of the storm here. It's not raining yet in Palm Bay, but there has been one hell of a light show parked just off shore for the past hour.
I've seen a few of Levi's posts on the comments to Jeff Masters's blog on Weather Underground. The comments board there is obnoxious, immature, and catty, but the is some good info buried in there at times.
Another one I like is the blog of former weather underground poster StormW at stormW.com
Just read on Hardcoreweather (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/26505-TROPICAL-STORM-ISAAC?p=324682#post324682) that some preliminiary steps are being taken in the New Orleans area for contraflow setup, now that SELA is the focus of the latest computer models.
Metro New Orleans contraflow and evacuation plans, and other helpful links (http://www.nola.com/opinions/index.ssf/2012/08/metro_new_orleans_contraflow_a.html)
They have a pretty cool graphic showing the contraflow configuration for the SELA Interstate system:
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.nola.com%2Fweather_impact%2Fimages%2Fcontraflow-map-animation-660.gif&hash=69071aaf1bb688da63bfc70dbc88bd94aaa69f2c)
It's interesting to re-read upthread because the images linked to were not static and have been updated with the latest information. So the comments by Floridians make it sound like they live around NOLA. :-D
Looks like Isaac will take it easy on Louisiana compared to some recent visitors from the Gulf. Still, it doesn't take much mess it stuff up down there.
Given what I've seen, the hoopla over Issac is much ado about nothing. Yes, it may be a Cat1 , but the biggest effects should be wind and rain from what I've seen. If I was in NOLA, I would not evacuate for this one.
Quote from: Brandon on August 26, 2012, 06:36:32 PM
Given what I've seen, the hoopla over Issac is much ado about nothing. Yes, it may be a Cat1 , but the biggest effects should be wind and rain from what I've seen. If I was in NOLA, I would not evacuate for this one.
In NOLA proper? Get out. Remember that most of the city is below sea level. Even a minor storm surge can be catestrophic. In a suburb? Check your storm surge zone and decide based on that. Remember that we are decent at forecasting storm tracks but completely incapable of accurately predicting intensity, so you always plan based on a storm one level higher than is forecast.
I live only a few miles inland but am about 35 feet above sea level. Much of the swampy gulf coast doesn't have the same luxury of elevation during a storm like this.
Another thing to realize is that some of the worst storms in recent memory were only Category 2 or 3 storms, but since they were so massive, they had damage similar to substantially more powerful storms in the past.
EDIT: Although all those storms had once been Category 4+ storms at one point or another before their landfalls.
Quote from: Alex on August 26, 2012, 11:54:47 AM
They have a pretty cool graphic showing the contraflow configuration for the SELA Interstate system:
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.nola.com%2Fweather_impact%2Fimages%2Fcontraflow-map-animation-660.gif&hash=69071aaf1bb688da63bfc70dbc88bd94aaa69f2c)
Is there a reason they don't contraflow I-55 from I-10 to I-12 and I-10 from I-55 to somewhere closer to Baton Rouge?
Quote from: Revive 755 on August 26, 2012, 09:24:20 PM
Quote from: Alex on August 26, 2012, 11:54:47 AM
They have a pretty cool graphic showing the contraflow configuration for the SELA Interstate system:
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.nola.com%2Fweather_impact%2Fimages%2Fcontraflow-map-animation-660.gif&hash=69071aaf1bb688da63bfc70dbc88bd94aaa69f2c)
Is there a reason they don't contraflow I-55 from I-10 to I-12 and I-10 from I-55 to somewhere closer to Baton Rouge?
For I55, I assume its because the contraflow between I10 to I12 would then have to merge in with another contraflow route causing increased congestion. Look at them as discrete routes out of town. I don't know about LA's implementation specifically, but usually exits and entrances along the contraflow route are closed, and you're forced to follow the colored route at freeway junctions.
Quote from: realjd on August 26, 2012, 08:48:55 PM
Quote from: Brandon on August 26, 2012, 06:36:32 PM
Given what I've seen, the hoopla over Issac is much ado about nothing. Yes, it may be a Cat1 , but the biggest effects should be wind and rain from what I've seen. If I was in NOLA, I would not evacuate for this one.
In NOLA proper? Get out. Remember that most of the city is below sea level. Even a minor storm surge can be catestrophic. In a suburb? Check your storm surge zone and decide based on that. Remember that we are decent at forecasting storm tracks but completely incapable of accurately predicting intensity, so you always plan based on a storm one level higher than is forecast.
I live only a few miles inland but am about 35 feet above sea level. Much of the swampy gulf coast doesn't have the same luxury of elevation during a storm like this.
In NOLA proper, I'd stay. In Katrina, the failures were completely human error due to lack of levee maintenance. Had the levees been maintained as they were supposed to, NO would never have flooded. Remember, there was a distinct contrast between the Jefferson parish side and the NO side of the canal. One side was dry due to proper maintenance, one side was not due to lack of maintenance. The storm had far less to do with it than people not properly maintaining the levees.
I know I'm not going anywhere for this. Cat2? Pfft. Bring it on.
Never mind that the current track's center has it passing only about 20 miles east of me at last check.
Quote from: Brandon on August 26, 2012, 10:21:14 PM
Quote from: realjd on August 26, 2012, 08:48:55 PM
Quote from: Brandon on August 26, 2012, 06:36:32 PM
Given what I've seen, the hoopla over Issac is much ado about nothing. Yes, it may be a Cat1 , but the biggest effects should be wind and rain from what I've seen. If I was in NOLA, I would not evacuate for this one.
In NOLA proper? Get out. Remember that most of the city is below sea level. Even a minor storm surge can be catestrophic. In a suburb? Check your storm surge zone and decide based on that. Remember that we are decent at forecasting storm tracks but completely incapable of accurately predicting intensity, so you always plan based on a storm one level higher than is forecast.
I live only a few miles inland but am about 35 feet above sea level. Much of the swampy gulf coast doesn't have the same luxury of elevation during a storm like this.
In NOLA proper, I'd stay. In Katrina, the failures were completely human error due to lack of levee maintenance. Had the levees been maintained as they were supposed to, NO would never have flooded. Remember, there was a distinct contrast between the Jefferson parish side and the NO side of the canal. One side was dry due to proper maintenance, one side was not due to lack of maintenance. The storm had far less to do with it than people not properly maintaining the levees.
Agreed about it being a maintenance issue, with some design flaws causing failures due to overflows washing away the supporting ground on the dry side. You trust that its been fixed properly? They assured everyone it was safe before Katrina also.
I'm not saying I'd evacuate far, but I'd evacuate at least to a
mainland suburban hotel unless I lived in one of the areas that stayed dry during Katrina like the French Quarter.
It's looking like the remnants of Isaac are going to blow over Ohio just as we have our first game of the season in the 'Shoe...
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdoppler.nbc4i.com%2FEXT_FORECAST.jpg&hash=80aa99dc0e8316be452072f5b396fe0025ba4f4d)
I listen to WWL at night for its hurricane coverage, but I've been a little disappointed this time. It's still replaying Dave Ramsey with just a brief update at the top of the hour. Guess they're waiting for it to go Category 6.
Quote from: vtk on August 27, 2012, 01:33:38 AM
It's looking like the remnants of Isaac are going to blow over Ohio just as we have our first game of the season in the 'Shoe
Maybe it'll be like Hurricane Ike for Ohio.
Quote from: Hot Rod Hootenanny on August 27, 2012, 09:25:43 PM
Quote from: vtk on August 27, 2012, 01:33:38 AM
It's looking like the remnants of Isaac are going to blow over Ohio just as we have our first game of the season in the 'Shoe
Maybe it'll be like Hurricane Ike for Ohio.
I'm hoping the remnants go further west. We need the water very badly here in Illinois and Indiana.
well, Isaac just made it to Hurricane status. I found it funny that on Louisiana's Office of the Governor website they included this list of state of emergency parishes:
STATE AGENCY/PARISH UPDATE
A number of parishes and areas have declared a mandatory evacuation, including:
Grand Isle and Lafitte in Jefferson Parish
Low lying areas in Jefferson Parish
South of the floodgates in Lafourche Parish
The East Bank in Plaquemines Parish
St. Charles Parish
Lowing lying areas of St. John
There are 23 parishes that have declared a state of emergency, including:
Ascension
Assumption
East Baton Rouge
Iberville
Jefferson
Lafourche
Livingston
Orleans
Morehouse
Plaquemines
St Bernard
St Charles
St Helena
St James
St John
St Tammany
Tangipahoa
Terrebonne
Jefferson Davis
Cameron
Pointe Coupee
St. Mary
West Baton Rouge
Morehouse Parish?? Oops :pan: That's the northeast corner of the state
Quote from: bassoon1986 on August 28, 2012, 12:47:36 PM
well, Isaac just made it to Hurricane status. I found it funny that on Louisiana's Office of the Governor website they included this list of state of emergency parishes:
STATE AGENCY/PARISH UPDATE
A number of parishes and areas have declared a mandatory evacuation, including:
Grand Isle and Lafitte in Jefferson Parish
Low lying areas in Jefferson Parish
South of the floodgates in Lafourche Parish
The East Bank in Plaquemines Parish
St. Charles Parish
Lowing lying areas of St. John
There are 23 parishes that have declared a state of emergency, including:
Ascension
Assumption
East Baton Rouge
Iberville
Jefferson
Lafourche
Livingston
Orleans
Morehouse
Plaquemines
St Bernard
St Charles
St Helena
St James
St John
St Tammany
Tangipahoa
Terrebonne
Jefferson Davis
Cameron
Pointe Coupee
St. Mary
West Baton Rouge
Morehouse Parish?? Oops :pan: That's the northeast corner of the state
Not that far-fetched. They're low-lying and prone to flooding and could get 20 inches of rain out of this.
The levees are spilling over along LA 23 in Plaquemines according to Parish President. I believe power poles are down on LA 23, that is the only highway and road that connects with the rest of the US. If you did not evacuate, then you may be trapped!
I read at http://www.detroityes.com/mb/showthread.php?14425-Isaac-to-pay-a-Labor-Day-visit-to-Detroit then Isaac might go up to Illinois, Indiana and Detroit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151338.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Google maps posted a map about predicting Isaac path. http://google.org/crisismap/2012-tropical-system-isaac
Quote from: roadman65 on August 28, 2012, 10:11:22 PM
The levees are spilling over along LA 23 in Plaquemines according to Parish President. I believe power poles are down on LA 23, that is the only highway and road that connects with the rest of the US. If you did not evacuate, then you may be trapped!
Plenty of police exacuations of folks in Plaquemines and the southern part of Jefferson Parish today.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-snc6%2F603573_492207140791798_1778416107_n.jpg&hash=d20e040ef9abb467e4f994aa9a8bab84c0fefbc6)
Found this image on hardcoreweather (http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/26505-HURRICANE-ISAAC?p=326904#post326904) today. This scene is just before the on-ramp from U.S. 51 onto I-10 west. Was looking at LA511 (http://www.511la.org/) a lot today and many many road closures, including this stretch of I-10:
QuoteI-10 in both directions: Road closed.
between Exit 206: LA 3188; Belle Terre Boulevard and Exit 210: I-55 (near Laplace). The road is closed because of flooding.
Comment: I-10 in both directions, between Exit 206: LA 3188; Belle Terre Boulevard and Exit 210: I-55 (near Laplace) The road is closed because of flooding.
Quote from: Stephane Dumas on August 29, 2012, 05:02:32 PM
I read at http://www.detroityes.com/mb/showthread.php?14425-Isaac-to-pay-a-Labor-Day-visit-to-Detroit then Isaac might go up to Illinois, Indiana and Detroit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151338.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Drought...say hello to my friend Goodbye.
Quote from: tdindy88 on August 29, 2012, 10:04:54 PM
Quote from: Stephane Dumas on August 29, 2012, 05:02:32 PM
I read at http://www.detroityes.com/mb/showthread.php?14425-Isaac-to-pay-a-Labor-Day-visit-to-Detroit then Isaac might go up to Illinois, Indiana and Detroit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151338.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Drought...say hello to my friend Goodbye.
It's been too damn dry. Lost two junipers, darn near lost the birch tree (all planted November 2010), and didn't mow the lawn for weeks on end. Only blasted thing growing were the thistles.
Quote from: roadman65 on August 28, 2012, 10:11:22 PM
The levees are spilling over along LA 23 in Plaquemines according to Parish President. I believe power poles are down on LA 23, that is the only highway and road that connects with the rest of the US. If you did not evacuate, then you may be trapped!
I drove LA 23 to Venice about 11 months after Katrina, and the farther south you went, the worse the devastation, even still. Houses, gas stations, schools, and workshops were still sitting there splintered. Cars were still in ditches. That was how bad Katrina was. There was just so much of it, you couldn't clean it up in even a year.
I have lived in New Orleans my whole life. I evacuated for this storm, not because of fear of property damage, but because I knew with a slow-moving storm that power outages were going to be at least a couple days, and I want my air condition, the tv, cold fridge, etc. With that said, New Orleans has suffered VERY LITTLE with Isaac. By Saturday, things will be back to normal other than maybe some people still not having power.
Not saying anyone here, but I love it how some people act like hurricanes started hitting NOLA in 2005. Lol.
Quote from: Road Hog on August 30, 2012, 01:16:47 AM
Quote from: roadman65 on August 28, 2012, 10:11:22 PM
The levees are spilling over along LA 23 in Plaquemines according to Parish President. I believe power poles are down on LA 23, that is the only highway and road that connects with the rest of the US. If you did not evacuate, then you may be trapped!
I drove LA 23 to Venice about 11 months after Katrina, and the farther south you went, the worse the devastation, even still. Houses, gas stations, schools, and workshops were still sitting there splintered. Cars were still in ditches. That was how bad Katrina was. There was just so much of it, you couldn't clean it up in even a year.
I was in Venice last year in June and saw some of the damage by Katrina. There is still a blown out sign for a gas station right at the curve where LA 23 narrows from four to two lanes next to the strip mall on the river side.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/54480415@N08/5975388772/in/photostream If you look to the left of the road where the photo is taken, but it is actually on the right, you can see the sign that I am talking about. It is on the far left of the photo.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/54480415@N08/5974827345/in/photostream/ Here is another photo taken on LA 23 in Venice and you can see how two signs were never replaced (one on each side of the highway) and it looks like the roof on the building to the left was damaged and not repaired either.
As a portion of Isaac's remnants tries to form what would be Nadine in the Gulf, the NOAA Emergency Response Imagery page now includes recent aerial photography of areas effected by Isaac:
http://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/isaac/index.html
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.batangastoday.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F09%2FHurricane-Kirk-Star-Trek-joke-report-560x390.jpg&hash=c802ffd101af8fea1f48c064b6f949513c9a634f) :-D
Quote from: US71 on September 05, 2012, 11:46:41 PM
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.batangastoday.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F09%2FHurricane-Kirk-Star-Trek-joke-report-560x390.jpg&hash=c802ffd101af8fea1f48c064b6f949513c9a634f) :-D
That's a big box for a small x.