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Non-Road Boards => Off-Topic => Weather => Topic started by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 07, 2015, 11:08:01 AM

Title: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 07, 2015, 11:08:01 AM
I had this thread in mind for a long time (Some of you might have read my signature ;)), and now that there's a high chance an off-season storm might form off the Southeast, I think it's the time to create it (Also, we are in the time of the year with the least cyclone activity). I'm sure you will be more interested in what happens in the Atlantic since cyclones that form there may hit the U.S., but this thread is open to everything, elsewhere. Right now I'm tracking typhoon Noul, spelt by me as No-eul (Damn North Korea using a different romanization from that of the South) and known in the Philippines as Dodong (this is for sammi), currently a Category 3-equivalent typhoon headed to Luzon in Northern Philippines. And according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) there's already another tropical storm in the Eastern part of Micronesia... but Japan still doesn't say so and thus they haven't named it yet.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Scott5114 on May 07, 2015, 11:43:38 AM
Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on May 07, 2015, 11:48:20 AM
Have been following the recon mission into 90L this morning. The plane recently found areas of 55kt winds on the northwest side of the system.

Follow along here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on May 07, 2015, 01:47:48 PM
Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!
Do you think Mother Nature cares?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on May 07, 2015, 03:44:39 PM
Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!

It's always tornado season.  We've had January ones in northern Illinois before.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on May 08, 2015, 09:02:55 AM
Subtropical Storm Ana is likely the highlight of the 2015 Atlantic basin season!  :-D
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 08, 2015, 09:29:10 AM
Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!

It never is too early! I've been tracking tropical cyclones all year round. The Southern hemisphere cyclone season ended a week ago. I enjoyed tracking Cyclone Eunice across Southern Indian ocean in late January even if it stayed out to sea, it became a Category 5 storm with up to 150 mph winds (measured to 10 minutes, as opposed to 1 minute winds both NHC and JTWC use, so I adjusted the Saffir-Simpson scale for my own purposes).
Subtropical Storm Ana is likely the highlight of the 2015 Atlantic basin season!  :-D

Not fully tropical, not interesting to me. I'll stay with Typhoon Noul for now. I prefer a Category 5 typhoon over open Pacific to a tropical storm treatening the US. An advantage of living far away from where tropical cyclones form :sombrero:.

PS: Last year by late October a Hurricane Ana happened :bigass:. It was in the Central Pacific (which I group with the Eastern Pacific like Wikipedia does), though.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on May 08, 2015, 11:40:35 AM
I'm gonna like this thread  :biggrin: Weather nerds unite!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Scott5114 on May 08, 2015, 08:05:10 PM
Even so, tomorrow is going to be a pretty significant weather day for central Oklahoma. Don't be surprised if we get an EF4 or higher. If you're a weather geek, it will be worth watching.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 09, 2015, 09:25:06 AM
Ana has become fully tropical and now I recognize it. However, when there's also a Category 4 typhoon with a North Korean name somewhere else...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on June 11, 2015, 11:26:36 AM
I bump this thread. As a tropical cyclone tracker, I'm very pleased the NHC has given my first name to the newly formed tropical storm South of Mexico :sombrero:.

Highlights in the last month include typhoon Dolphin intesifying all the way to Category 5 (second in a row, Noul also got there) and then suddenly the Western Pacific went dead. Meanwhile the Eastern Pacific season (which started on May 15) got an explosive start with hurricanes Andres and Blanca both getting to Category 4. I blame this on El Nio. And right now we are getting a rare tropical cyclone landfall in Oman, by tropical storm* Ashobaa.

*Actually and due to that designation being absent from the North Indian scale, calling this a 'tropical storm' is somewhat incorrect. Same happens in Australia and the South Pacific.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on June 13, 2015, 11:35:19 AM
What remained of Hurricane Blanca from the Pacific went across the US and just departed the Midwest along a stationary frontal boundary. Combining Blanca's moisture, a stationary front, and a ton of moisture from the Gulf brought 3-6 inches of rain to much of Central and Northwest Illinois.

Currently I'm on a 6 day precip streak with 2.55 inches of rain so far with the next 6 of 7 days having some sort of a chance of rain.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: dcbjms on June 13, 2015, 12:54:09 PM
Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast?  We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on June 13, 2015, 05:46:17 PM
A disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula could bring unneeded rain to Texas and the Gulf Coast:
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_tracks_latest.png)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3017 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3017)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Road Hog on June 14, 2015, 06:47:44 PM
The farther east that thing tracks, the better. We've been dry for a couple of weeks, but the lakes are just now dropping below the spillways.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on June 14, 2015, 10:53:18 PM
Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast?  We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).

The remnants have already moved through. I believe that was Wednesday???
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: dcbjms on June 14, 2015, 11:50:53 PM
Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast?  We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).

The remnants have already moved through. I believe that was Wednesday???

Well, I guess we didn't notice it 'round here - all we got were clouds and that was it.  We could use some more rain, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on June 15, 2015, 09:14:41 AM
A disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula could bring unneeded rain to Texas and the Gulf Coast:


Can we mail it to California?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on August 19, 2015, 02:53:28 PM
CNGL-Leudimin, thoughts on Danny? Recurve out to sea? Entrain too much Saharan dust and disintegrate? Make it to the Caribbean and become a threat?

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0415W5_NL_sm2+gif/143247W5_NL_sm.gif)

(http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al042015.png)

I still recall 1997's Hurricane Danny, which made a significant impact while stalled over Mobile bay. The name should have been retired.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Billy F 1988 on August 19, 2015, 02:57:20 PM
Wait. I thought Danny was done and over with. Now he's back at it again threatening to hit the Gulf Coast perhaps? You gotta be kidding me.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 20, 2015, 04:23:27 AM
CNGL-Leudimin, thoughts on Danny? Recurve out to sea? Entrain too much Saharan dust and disintegrate? Make it to the Caribbean and become a threat?

I'm currently more focused on typhoons Goni (Ineng for sammi and the Philippines) and Atsani, the former is threatening both Philippines and Taiwan but will recurve before hitting them, and the later was briefly a Category 5 storm. Anyway, something is saying me Danny will be a long-lived storm, but it is still too early to say if it will recurve or hit Florida.

Oh, and lists in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (East of 140W) are recycled every six years except for retired names. Philippines also does that, but every four years. Meanwhile, Central Pacific (i.e. Eastern Pacific West of 140W), Western and Southern Pacific and Australia go on and when they reach the end of their lists they start over, Southwestern Indian uses brand new lists every season (They have yet to release the 2015-16 one) and is expected for Northern Indian to make up a new list when it reaches the end of current one.

PS: I liked hurricane typhoon Halola, taking a Hawaiian name all the way to Japan!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on August 20, 2015, 07:07:41 AM
If I was a betting man, I'd have Danny dying out somewhere in the east Caribbean, either getting torn apart by the mountains of Hispaniola or Puerto Rico, or a combination of the accelerating trade winds and dry air limiting thunderstorm activity. If it gets past there, I'd watch for it on the lower Atlantic coast or the gulf as it starts to recurve.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on August 20, 2015, 10:58:16 AM
Danny has recovered significantly from the dry air entrainment of two days ago. The storm is even starting to show the signs of an eye.

And just now the NHC upgraded it to a Hurricane:

Quote
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Oh, and lists in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (East of 140W) are recycled every six years except for retired names. Philippines also does that, but every four years. Meanwhile, Central Pacific (i.e. Eastern Pacific West of 140W), Western and Southern Pacific and Australia go on and when they reach the end of their lists they start over, Southwestern Indian uses brand new lists every season (They have yet to release the 2015-16 one) and is expected for Northern Indian to make up a new list when it reaches the end of current one.

Knew that, like you I've been an avid tracker of storms going back to 1985.  :biggrin:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on August 20, 2015, 11:58:49 AM
Give me a Cat 1 hurricane to finally watch on sat images in the Atlantic
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on August 20, 2015, 07:38:15 PM
Give me a Cat 1 hurricane to finally watch on sat images in the Atlantic
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif)
 :bigass:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on August 21, 2015, 09:28:44 AM
Danny organized quite a bit last night, with ATCF data indicating that the storm is now a 100 mph Category 2 storm. I personally think that may be a bit low, with Dvorak estimates (T 5.0 from both agencies) indicating a 110-120 mph storm.

Recon also finding 968 mb pressures in the amazingly tight inner core: (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-WA04A-DANNY_timeseries.png)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on August 21, 2015, 02:18:10 PM
Cat 2  :bigass: :bigass: :bigass:

(http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2015/danny-1kmGOES-1315-8.21.15.jpg)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on August 21, 2015, 02:25:50 PM
Cat 2  :bigass: :bigass: :bigass:


If it stays out in the ocean, fine.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: golden eagle on August 21, 2015, 03:28:36 PM
What about the dry air it's supposed to encounter?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on August 21, 2015, 03:36:50 PM
Category 3 hurricane now:

Quote
000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4

HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today.  Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 21, 2015, 05:01:51 PM
Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...

And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on August 24, 2015, 11:37:57 PM
With Danny gone, attention in the Atlantic turns to TS Erika, which could potentially threaten the US*: (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024057.shtml?5-daynl#contents)

* Though I imagine that anything deeper than a weak Cat 1 will be pulled northward away from the US, as the models favouring strengthening have shown. The current track is a compromise between them and the Euro and GFS, which keep Erika weaker and keep it on a more southerly track.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: hm insulators on August 27, 2015, 01:16:57 PM
Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...

And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.

In 1982, my folks and I were living on Kauai when Hurricane Iwa hit. It hit the resort area of Poipu the hardest; we were living only a mile or so from the hotels. I still remember the downed trees and powerlines and the hotels smashed by the ocean. My parents had a little business by the Sheraton Kauai that rented mopeds, bicycles, surfboards and even underwater cameras; that got wiped out by Iwa.

By 1992, I had long since moved back to my native southern California, but my parents were still on Kauai when the much stronger Hurricane Iniki (Cat. 4) smashed into the island and tore it to shreds.

And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on August 27, 2015, 04:30:44 PM
Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...

And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.

In 1982, my folks and I were living on Kauai when Hurricane Iwa hit. It hit the resort area of Poipu the hardest; we were living only a mile or so from the hotels. I still remember the downed trees and powerlines and the hotels smashed by the ocean. My parents had a little business by the Sheraton Kauai that rented mopeds, bicycles, surfboards and even underwater cameras; that got wiped out by Iwa.

By 1992, I had long since moved back to my native southern California, but my parents were still on Kauai when the much stronger Hurricane Iniki (Cat. 4) smashed into the island and tore it to shreds.

And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D

Levi Cowan does a pretty good job including Hawaii hurricane threats with his analysis videos at his Tropical Tidbits web site (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/).
His update last night indicated that Ignacio may be deflected north or south, and that due to the abnormally warmer ocean temps to the southeast of Hawaii, that it will have a higher chance of retaining hurricane status as it nears the island chain than last year's Iselle did.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on August 27, 2015, 04:33:11 PM
Erika is gonna be very fun to watch over the next week
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on August 27, 2015, 06:29:37 PM
Go home GFDL, you're drunk:

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Xl1RFQ_tlK1AEIWgv__x1HxZ_mttzCGhxkxmkgPjBfc=w1020-h791-no)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 28, 2015, 07:33:26 AM
^^ I've seen worse things coming out from models. Like that one that went nuts and put part of Europe on 90+F temperatures... in December!
And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D

I'd rather call it 'Nacho', as that is commonly used in my country to refer to any person who has the first name Ignacio :bigass:. I would not be the first time I 'rename' a tropical cyclone, as last year's Iselle got referred to as 'Ixeya' (a mountain in my area which happens to be used as a girls' first name) by me.

With Goni, Atsani and Loke all three gone, I turn my focus eastwards. Yesterday, I thought Erika would end the Category 5 drought in the Atlantic (In fact all basins but Atlantic have seen at least one Category 5 in the current decade).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 29, 2015, 07:52:58 AM
I'm now expecting Erika to dissipate and then to regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf. But such a disorganized storm is not interesting for me, I prefer category 4 hurricane Jimena over the open waters of Pacific ocean. And it was named only 48 hours ago! :wow:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on August 30, 2015, 01:54:29 AM
I'm now expecting Erika to dissipate and then to regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf. But such a disorganized storm is not interesting for me, I prefer category 4 hurricane Jimena over the open waters of Pacific ocean. And it was named only 48 hours ago! :wow:
The EPac is going bananas right now, with three Category 4 storms at the same time in Kilo, Jimena, and Ignacio. This is one hell of an El Nino, isn't it?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 30, 2015, 05:03:46 AM
Yeah. Now that Erika is gone, what is going on around Hawaii is crazy at least. Jimena has weakened a bit, though. Kilo may end up being like last year's Genevieve. That one also spent a long time struggling as a tropical depression, and then rapidly intensified to hurricane and super typhoon :sombrero:.

And now that I check NHC's website, I see they have named tropical storm Fred. However, I can't see it, I'm going to find it...

Edit: Found it! It's just off the coast of Africa.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: triplemultiplex on August 30, 2015, 05:29:15 PM
Ignacio is less than 400 miles from me right now, but every update makes it look like less and less of big deal.  It's weakening and tracking further north.  And now the Tropical Storm Watch has been cancelled for this island.  I guess I should be relieved but part of me wanted to experience it.

I should watch what I wish for though, because I've got another month on these islands and its El Nino in the peak month of hurricane season.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 01, 2015, 12:39:08 PM
Back in November 2013 when typhoon Haiyan someone asked about the differences between a hurricane and a typhoon. Here is an answer. After 12 days, Kilo is no longer a hurricane... but rather a typhoon, as it has crossed the International Date Line :sombrero:. It will be a really long-lived storm.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 15, 2015, 03:13:38 PM
A powerful extratropical cyclone is starting to hit Spain right now... and it has a name: Henri. It happens a tropical storm formed East of Bermuda on September 9 and the NHC named it Henri. It tracked North, dissipated two days later, and then regenerated into this extratropical cyclone.

In other news, Kilo finally became extratropical on September 11, after spending 22 days as a tropical cyclone.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 19, 2015, 07:45:02 AM
Tropical Storm Ida. All models (GFS, European, the always drunk Canadian, as well as the hurricane models HWRF and GFDL) see this cyclone reaching major hurricane status and stay away from land.

Also, we'll see yet another Hawaiian-named storm? Tropical depression Five-C (Twenty-C by my count, which groups NHC and CPHC responsability areas together) is now active.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on September 19, 2015, 08:00:25 AM
Tropical Storm Ida. All models (GFS, European, the always drunk Canadian, as well as the hurricane models HWRF and GFDL) see this cyclone reaching major hurricane status and stay away from land.

Also, we'll see yet another Hawaiian-named storm? Tropical depression Five-C (Twenty-C by my count, which groups NHC and CPHC responsability areas together) is now active.

Don't see where the latest fish storm is forecast to become a major hurricane,  but would not be surprised to see it achieve it like Danny did just so they can say we had two major canes this season...

Otherwise *yawn*
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 19, 2015, 08:27:24 AM
It's still way out, so Ida may not get so strong. I also got some preferences, I will be more focused on a Category 5 fish storm than a tropical storm threatening land. This happenned when Danny first formed, I was tracking typhoons Goni and Atsani out in the Western Pacific then. Another thing was typhoon Haiyan in 2013, I already knew it was going to hit the Philippines several days before it made to the news.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alps on September 26, 2015, 08:56:43 PM
Ida has one of the oddest tracks I've ever seen.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: TravelingBethelite on September 29, 2015, 05:39:55 PM
Joaquin is looking scary for the northeast.
(http://i.imgur.com/XgXNZgp.gif)  (http://i.imgur.com/NWcb4al.gif) Could start to rain tonight, and not stop until Monday. That's over 144 hours of straight rain...  :-o
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Zeffy on September 29, 2015, 05:57:39 PM
That thing is currently aiming straight at New Jersey on a lot of forecast models, which may not be the worst thing when we are in a serious drought right now.

Unless it strengthens into some monstrous hurricane before landfall in which case, fuck.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on September 29, 2015, 07:26:56 PM
That thing is currently aiming straight at New Jersey on a lot of forecast models, which may not be the worst thing when we are in a serious drought right now.

Unless it strengthens into some monstrous hurricane before landfall in which case, fuck.

The NHC upped their forecast intensity from 65 MPH this morning to 90 MPH.

Models are still all over the place and the NHC discussion concurs with that:

Quote
Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the
west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available
guidance.  Later in the forecast period, there is a significant
divergence in the track guidance.  The HWRF and U.K. Met Office
models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United
States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system
well offshore.  The official forecast lies between these
possibilities
and is similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble solution.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 26.0N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 25.8N  71.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 25.5N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 25.1N  73.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 24.8N  73.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 25.0N  74.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 29.0N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

(http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112015.png)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on September 29, 2015, 11:51:19 PM
Many of the models seem to want to take the system right over VA, particularly over the New River Valley, where we've already had 6-7 inches of rain in the past week.  However, the system is in a pretty complex setup currently, and the models haven't been very accurate with this system (it was initially forecast to peak as a TD) or this season as a whole. It could still hit anywhere north of Miami, or it could avoid any land at all and head out to sea.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on September 30, 2015, 08:24:42 AM
Upgraded to a hurricane as of the 8 am advisory.  The model have shifted significantly westward too.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 30, 2015, 09:27:58 AM
^^ Intermediate advisory. I was expecting the 5 a.m. full advisory to have a hurricane but nope.

A bit of trivia: Joaquin replaced Juan after the 2003 season, which featured a category 2 hurricane slamming into Nova Scotia, but 2009 ended just short of that name.

Hm, Japan says there is now a tropical depression to the East of the Philippines, which is Invest 90W, the very same disturbance the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a TC Formation Alert on. Models say this won't become a tropical storm until it gets onto the South China sea, and they also develop 99W into a typhoon. I'm also interested on this because the next name in the Western Pacific list is North Korean :sombrero:.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 30, 2015, 12:51:08 PM
Some key messages from NHC:
Quote from: NHC
1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent.  A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast.  It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system.  This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.

As of the last advisory and since I use the recommended definition of sustained winds (That's it, 10-minute average instead of 1-minute NHC uses), I have Joaquin with maximum winds of 70 mph.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 30, 2015, 03:01:17 PM
Boy oh boy. A dominant Super-High dominating the Midwest and Canada, its steering winds pulling moisture and the general path straight into the East Coast, and a frontal system with waves riding it up.

Someone is gonna get clobbered between Richmond VA and Boston MA.   
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: NJRoadfan on September 30, 2015, 06:07:00 PM
People are already buying generators and stocking up on fuel here. Honestly I'll take the rain over the wind, at least I know how bad the flooding in the basement gets.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on September 30, 2015, 08:01:02 PM
Joaquin continues to rapidly intensify, now a 105-mph Category 2 storm: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/302357.shtml
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Duke87 on September 30, 2015, 09:24:57 PM
Each forecast update thus far seems to be dragging the projected landfall further south. It went from centered on Long Island to New Jersey to Delaware and now it's NC/VA. But the models are still all over the place. So it's going to hit the east coast somewhere between Georgia and Maine, I guess. No cause for anyone to panic yet but of course everyone has to keep an eye on it due to the lack of certainty.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 01, 2015, 10:34:25 AM
Joaquin is now the only named cyclone after Marty dissipated early this morning, unless one counts TD 22W which Philippines has unofficially named Kabayan, which I consider still a depression despite the JTWC calling it a storm simply because Japan has not said so yet and thus has not named it. Joaquin is now a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph (1-min, NHC official) or 105 mph (10-min, my estimate) winds.

BTW, I didn't knew a hurricane could have a beta phase like videogames, doesn't it? :sombrero:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/Hurricane_Beta_29_oct_2005_1840Z.jpg/467px-Hurricane_Beta_29_oct_2005_1840Z.jpg)

Hurricane β. It's obvious from which season is.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 01, 2015, 02:08:35 PM
Models have diverged, figures. Half now have a landfall somewhere between DC and NYC. The other half is split, a quarter send it off to the N. Atlantic, the other quarter have it offshore and turns towards Massachusetts and New England/Nova Scotia.

I have a feeling we should pay attention to the frontal system that has brought the first taste of autumn. The stationary boundary is gonna be key as to where and how Joaquin behaves
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: TravelingBethelite on October 01, 2015, 02:12:47 PM
Joaquin looks pretty fearsome:
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2015AL11/1KMSRVIS/2015AL11_1KMSRVIS_201510011745.GIF)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 01, 2015, 02:52:45 PM
Joaquin is now a Cat 4
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 02, 2015, 11:33:46 AM
Joaquin is trending more and more out to sea with the last couple of updates. Carolina's are about to get a 3 month period of rain in less than 2 days possibly
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 02, 2015, 02:43:54 PM
Warning: North Korean storm now active! Tropical Storm Mujigae in the South China Sea, also known as Kabayan in the Philippines. And Tropical Storm Choi-Wan South of Wake Island in a new epic fail of the JTWC, they still had a tropical cyclone formation alert when Japan named it, and they still have it as a tropical depression.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on October 03, 2015, 12:01:28 PM
Remember when the initial forecasts for 11L / Joaquin didn't even have it attaining TS status? Well now it's close to being a Category 5 Hurricane:

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Imagine the panic if it was still on a course for the US...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex4897 on October 03, 2015, 12:52:21 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/6rUoOzh.png)

Joaquin + plume of moisture slamming SC / NC at about 12:00 PM.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: noelbotevera on October 03, 2015, 01:32:45 PM
Category 4 right now - about 100 miles east of Miami, Florida. Bermuda's on hurricane watch, and it's still expected to steer clear of the east coast.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 08, 2015, 12:05:15 PM
Joaquin is now tropically gone, but still alive as a extratropical cyclone which will bring bad weather to my country by the weekend. It peaked just shy of category 5, it would have been the first one since Felix in 2007. And all other basins have had at least a category 5 cyclone since 2010 (counting the CPac with the EPac).

BTW, there have been a ton of hawaiian names usde this year, eight of them, and then they can get stuck for years before the next name of the list is used. The names were Ela (Bad name IMO, ELA is Spanish for ALS), Halola (tracked all the way to Asia!), Iune, Kilo (did the same as Halola), Loke, Malia, Niala and Oho (which has just become extratropical now).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 08, 2015, 12:24:38 PM
Oho about to give Alaska a hard time, mainly the panhandle and Juneau
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on October 23, 2015, 01:05:49 AM
Reconnaissance mission finding 180 kt flight-level winds and a 890 mbar central pressure in Patricia, which would be the record for the deepest system ever to form in the Pacific west of 180W, beating both the EPac record holder Linda (1997, 902 mbar) and the CPac record holder Ioke (2006, 900 mbar)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 23, 2015, 09:40:18 AM
Reconnaissance mission finding 180 kt flight-level winds and a 880 mbar central pressure in Patricia, which would be the record for the deepest system ever to form in the Pacific east of 180, beating the EPac record holder Linda (1997, 902 mbar)

Fixed. Ioke only reached 915 hPa (same as mbar). And I count the CPac together with the EPac like Wikipedia does.

Hurricane Patricia is really crazy. It was only named on Wednesday, but yesterday by 2:00 p.m. it was already category 4. When I woke up today, Patricia was already far into category 5, and I awaited for the 5:00 a.m. advisory. I thought I would never see a tropical cyclone hitting 200 mph, but that was before Patricia formed. And those were measured by the Hurricane Hunters.

Patricia is so strong, that it has triggered something never seen before. Normally, the 1 min estimate in knots and my 10 min estimate in mph both yield the same value, but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: froggie on October 23, 2015, 11:15:29 AM
Quote
but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.

I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on October 23, 2015, 02:25:39 PM
Quote
but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.

I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?


175 knots is around 200mph, I think.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on October 23, 2015, 02:56:52 PM
Quote
but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.

I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?


175 knots is around 200mph, I think.

1 knot = 1.151 mph

Hence, 175 knots is 201.425 mph.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knot_%28unit%29
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: noelbotevera on October 23, 2015, 03:23:44 PM
Patricia's course is about a couple hundred or so miles west of Manazillo. It's also 517 miles from Mexico City, but it's course seems to be northward towards the US, towards New Mexico and Texas.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 23, 2015, 03:24:16 PM
A knot is exactly 1.852 km/h.
I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?

I understand that difference. What happens is I use a different standard for measuring wind speeds. The WMO recommends using a 10 minute lapse, which I also take as reference, while NHC, CPHC and JTWC use a 1 minute lapse, which is approximately 1.14 times higher (However it depends on the environment). This is close to the conversion factor of 1 knot = 1.151 mph. So if I have to quote my 10 minute estimate in mph, I simply take the 1 minute estimate in knots. Except here. Patricia is so damn strong, the two values differ.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: roadman on October 23, 2015, 05:43:14 PM
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia.  Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SignGeek101 on October 24, 2015, 02:41:30 AM
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia.  Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.

Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.

They were talking about it here too. Taking air time away from the 'Halloween and snow' and 'leaves are changing colour' weather news.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on October 24, 2015, 03:10:43 AM
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia.  Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.

Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.

How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on October 24, 2015, 06:55:19 AM
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia.  Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.

Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.

How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.


Smaller, though, and hitting a less-populated area. Still, yeah, you're talking about an amount of damage, not a magnitude. Those affected by Patricia will be no less homeless or dead than those affected by Katrina.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SignGeek101 on October 24, 2015, 11:06:13 AM
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia.  Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.

Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.

How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.


Smaller, though, and hitting a less-populated area. Still, yeah, you're talking about an amount of damage, not a magnitude. Those affected by Patricia will be no less homeless or dead than those affected by Katrina.

I was also thinking about the area it hit. Katrina was so damaging due to the fact that it hit New Orleans, a city below sea level, and breached its dikes. Also, Patricia was supposed to (I'm not sure if it did) weaken very quickly once it made landfall, because it was over a mountain chain, according to the news.

 I'm no expert on this though, so Patricia could be more damaging.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Pete from Boston on October 24, 2015, 11:19:35 AM

The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia.  Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.

Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.

They were talking about it here too. Taking air time away from the 'Halloween and snow' and 'leaves are changing colour' weather news.

If I read correctly, the point roadman was making was that it was brought up during the "traffic and weather on the tens" segment on local radio, not during the general news where a story not affecting local weather would be more appropriate.  However, I guess that's when that meteorologist gets his air time, so that's when it happens.

It also is worth noting that a lot of the segments on these metro news radio stations are not local at all, and do these drop-in's for many cities. I realized this when I heard our "local" radio meteorologist Elliott Abrams on the weather report in Pittsburgh as if he was right there downtown at KDKA.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: noelbotevera on October 24, 2015, 12:01:23 PM
As of around 9:30 AM ET, Patricia heads northeast towards Houston, Texas. The wind speed is 165 mph (still Category 5).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: TravelingBethelite on October 24, 2015, 12:43:47 PM
...PATRICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...
10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 24
Location: 23.9N 101.6W
Moving: NE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Now she's just a tropical depression, and rapidly weakening. She's soon to dissipate into a trough of low pressure. What a storm, though...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: noelbotevera on October 24, 2015, 12:47:09 PM
As of 10:44 AM ET (Weather Channel post) and 8 AM PDT, Patricia is on a NNE course towards Texas, a couple hundred or so miles from Laredo. It's still in Mexico, possibly entering the US tomorrow.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on October 24, 2015, 01:25:05 PM

As of around 9:30 AM ET, Patricia heads northeast towards Houston, Texas. The wind speed is 165 mph (still Category 5).

That seems very improbable more than 12 hours after landfall. Perhaps you're seeing the prior day's advisory?


iPhone
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: noelbotevera on October 24, 2015, 01:38:56 PM

As of around 9:30 AM ET, Patricia heads northeast towards Houston, Texas. The wind speed is 165 mph (still Category 5).

That seems very improbable more than 12 hours after landfall. Perhaps you're seeing the prior day's advisory?


iPhone
That was today. I checked the Weather Channel.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on October 24, 2015, 01:47:10 PM
This is also from the weather channel...at 8am PDT. No clue what you could've been looking at.

(http://i225.photobucket.com/albums/dd144/roadnut/53AC4E1F-D87D-47DB-9CE3-0DBE1F8AAEDB.png) (http://s225.photobucket.com/user/roadnut/media/53AC4E1F-D87D-47DB-9CE3-0DBE1F8AAEDB.png.html)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on October 24, 2015, 02:30:37 PM
The weather teaser on out local news station this afternoon was about tracking Patricia.  Given that we're in Boston, it seemed pretty silly to me.

Considering how strong the storm is, you can't blame them for talking about it, especially if the weather in Boston is pretty fair (which I don't know if that's the case or not). It won't be as damaging as Katrina probably, but its strength is sure unique.

How do you figure that? It's more powerful than Katrina.


Smaller, though, and hitting a less-populated area. Still, yeah, you're talking about an amount of damage, not a magnitude. Those affected by Patricia will be no less homeless or dead than those affected by Katrina.

I was also thinking about the area it hit. Katrina was so damaging due to the fact that it hit New Orleans, a city below sea level, and breached its dikes. Also, Patricia was supposed to (I'm not sure if it did) weaken very quickly once it made landfall, because it was over a mountain chain, according to the news.

 I'm no expert on this though, so Patricia could be more damaging.

Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans.  Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Duke87 on October 24, 2015, 09:31:18 PM
Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans.  Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.

A couple of the levees also had a design flaw that made them weaker than they were supposed to be from the getgo, they took soil samples where the ground was already the most compressed and thus the strength was measured unconservatively. And then you have the decision to build a city in the middle of the swamp in the first place.

But yeah, very manmade.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: noelbotevera on October 24, 2015, 10:15:32 PM
UPDATE: Patricia's winds at a measly 30 mph. As of 7 pm CDT (8 PM ET), and 10:12 PM ET as I write the post, Patricia is still on its northeast course towards the United States and Texas. It is currently just about west of Monterrey, with Monterrey being in the southeast side of the tropical storm. It has another 455 miles to go until it hits a major city, Houston, Texas.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SSOWorld on October 25, 2015, 08:01:24 AM
Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans.  Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.

A couple of the levees also had a design flaw that made them weaker than they were supposed to be from the getgo, they took soil samples where the ground was already the most compressed and thus the strength was measured unconservatively. And then you have the decision to build a city in the middle of the swamp in the first place.

But yeah, very manmade.


true but keep in mind that though Katrina had Cat 3 winds and pressure, it was still accompanied by a larger than usual surge.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on October 25, 2015, 04:33:00 PM
Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans.  Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.

A couple of the levees also had a design flaw that made them weaker than they were supposed to be from the getgo, they took soil samples where the ground was already the most compressed and thus the strength was measured unconservatively. And then you have the decision to build a city in the middle of the swamp in the first place.

But yeah, very manmade.

true but keep in mind that though Katrina had Cat 3 winds and pressure, it was still accompanied by a larger than usual surge.

They had Betsy in 1965 do something similar.  They knew from computer modeling over the couple decades prior to Katrina what could happen.  They failed to maintain the levees properly, even letting oak trees grow on and next to them.

A great comparison was made the day after along the canal between Orleans and Jefferson Parishes.  One side was swamped, the other was dry.  One side maintained the levees, the other did not.  If Katrina was all that bad, then the Jefferson Parish levees should've failed as well.  They did not.  Only the Orleans Parish levees failed.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 25, 2015, 06:04:09 PM
UPDATE: Patricia's winds at a measly 30 mph. As of 7 pm CDT (8 PM ET), and 10:12 PM ET as I write the post, Patricia is still on its northeast course towards the United States and Texas. It is currently just about west of Monterrey, with Monterrey being in the southeast side of the tropical storm. It has another 455 miles to go until it hits a major city, Houston, Texas.

The remnants are gonna give much of the eastern US a good soaking of rainfall, including flooded areas of the Mid South and Texas.

I'll tell you what, the remnant low is forecasted to  turn northerly and bomb out essentially after merging with a Canadian low pressure. Classic autumnal storm by mid week with a possible 980-990 mb center. Patricia might not be done yet
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: froggie on October 25, 2015, 06:08:46 PM
Quote from: Brandon
Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans.  Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.

Within New Orleans, yes.  But Katrina had such a far-ranging impact that to focus on New Orleans was to miss the big picture with that storm.

Quote from: SSOWorld
true but keep in mind that though Katrina had Cat 3 winds and pressure, it was still accompanied by a larger than usual surge.

Speaking from years of personal experience, it takes far longer for sea waves to die down than it does for winds.  So while Katrina had Cat 3 (borderline Cat 4) winds upon landfall, it very much had a Cat 5 storm surge.


Regarding Patricia, my mother lives in Manzanillo, and Patricia made landfall about 55 miles northwest of there (per National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/ep20/ep202015.update.10232327.shtml?)).  Thankfully, the strongest winds did not extend very far....hurricane force winds only extended about 30 miles from the center.  She lost power and Internet for about half a day but they were restored yesterday.  No word yet on damage but she's promised me some photos.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on October 25, 2015, 09:05:16 PM
Quote from: Brandon
Katrina was more a man-made disaster than a natural one in New Orleans.  Had the levees been maintained properly, they would've held.

Within New Orleans, yes.  But Katrina had such a far-ranging impact that to focus on New Orleans was to miss the big picture with that storm.

True, Mississippi was a natural disaster, but we're discussing the effects on NOLA, not Mississippi.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: froggie on October 25, 2015, 10:00:52 PM
That was geared more towards the previous comment stating that Katrina "did so much damage" because it hit NOLA.  Probably should've quoted that too, earlier.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 26, 2015, 11:53:11 AM
Next Sunday the Southern hemisphere cyclone season begins. It is divided into three basins: Southwest Indian, Australia and Southern Pacific (The South Atlantic and Southeast Pacific don't see tropical cyclone activity due to hostile environment). However there has been already a named tropical storm this year, although calling something in the Australia basin a 'tropical storm' is somewhat incorrect given the Australian scale doesn't have such a designation. Tropical storm Raquel, it was already named on July 1st, that is like a tropical storm forming in the Atlantic on January 1st.

By the way, if I was to set up something, I'd call it the Leudimin Tropical Cyclone Center. I wouldn't call it Leudimin Hurricane Center due to its acronym conflicting with that of the Large Hardon Collider [sic].
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on January 07, 2016, 02:12:07 PM
Okay, a quick recap: The Eastern Pacific (includes the so-called Central Pacific) kept surprising me up to the very end of 2015: Like it happened in the Atlantic in 2012 and in the Western Pacific in 2013, the weak storm after the big one happened (Tropical Storm Rick in mid November), but then a record-breaking major hurricane formed, Sandra. And when I thought the season was all but done, the last tropical depression formed on New Year's Eve (UTC), thus pushing the end of the season to Undecimber 1st (i.e. January 1st, 2016). And today, just six days after, the first tropical depression of the year has surfaced. Now that is crazy El Nio.

Now for the lists they will use this year, the ones of 2010 but without the retired names. In the Atlantic Igor and Tomas got replaced by Ian and Tobias. In the Eastern Pacific (West to 140W) in principle it's the same, but due to that f*cking Islamic State, Ivette will now be used instead of Isis. As it wasn't retired the usual way, I will render that storm as 'Isis Ivette' (But at least it wasn't retired with the season underway and due to be used, unlike Tropical Storm Ivo of 2001 which I have recorded as Tropical Storm Israel instead). It also causes a glitch in my records, as since Isis went unused in 2010 I mark it as retired since 2004, so now my records says had 2010 reached the I storm, it would have been named Ivette instead of Isis.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on January 13, 2016, 04:05:13 PM
Again, why do we need to name subtropical systems?

Quote
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

...OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 30.8W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Alex.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the
eastern Atlantic has developed into a subtropical storm.
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 30.8 West.  The storm is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a turn
toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Alex is expected to become an extratopical cyclone before reaching
the Azores on Friday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Pete from Boston on January 13, 2016, 04:09:11 PM

Again, why do we need to name subtropical systems?

There's no need to take it personally.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on January 14, 2016, 09:45:07 AM
Again, why do we need to name subtropical systems?

The same I say. That is why my list of storms of 2007 starts with Barry.

Edit: Alex has transitioned from subtropical storm to hurricane!!! Now that is crazy. The Eastern Pacific (I count EPAC and CPAC together) also got an early hurricane, Pali. Now it's almost dissipated.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: golden eagle on January 16, 2016, 09:11:43 PM
Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on January 16, 2016, 10:00:19 PM
Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?
Because it's 2016.

Nexus 6P

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: golden eagle on January 16, 2016, 11:05:16 PM
So, when the season cranks back up this summer, they'll start with the B name?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on January 16, 2016, 11:13:02 PM
So, when the season cranks back up this summer, they'll start with the B name?
Yes. All storms forming within a certain year use the names from that year's list.

Nexus 6P

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on January 17, 2016, 08:06:35 AM
Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?

Did you mean hurricane Alex should have been hurricane Larry instead? Even though we are off season*, lists are used in a calendar year. I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.

* Off-season in the Atlantic and EPAC, as we are on the Southern Hemisphere season. In fact I'm currently tracking cyclone Victor in the South Pacific, which has stalled after attaining Category 1 status.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 41 on January 17, 2016, 09:18:05 AM
Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?

Did you mean hurricane Alex should have been hurricane Larry instead? Even though we are off season*, lists are used in a calendar year. I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.

* Off-season in the Atlantic and EPAC, as we are on the Southern Hemisphere season. In fact I'm currently tracking cyclone Victor in the South Pacific, which has stalled after attaining Category 1 status.

The only thing close to Victor right now is the Cook Islands. 
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on February 12, 2016, 02:40:04 PM
Has anyone seen the Tropical Cyclone Report for 'hypercane' Patricia (Castilian Spanish pronounciation: [paˈtɾiθia])? Yes, that crazy thing that churned off the Mexican Pacific coast for a few days back in October. It seems we don't need that unreliable reading from typhoon Nancy anymore... Also it got damn close to 'Tip' the lowest pressure on record set by typhoon Tip.

As for current news, there is a rapid intensification in progress somewhere. Just ask for Mr. Winston :sombrero:.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on February 19, 2016, 05:50:26 PM
So we have now a Category 5 cyclone. What a crazy track Cyclone Winston has taken, and now it's bearing on Fiji islands with up to 165 mph (1 min)/145 mph (10 min) sustained winds. It has already started to strike the islands...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: hm insulators on February 25, 2016, 05:09:51 PM
According to the Weather Channel, Winston had 185 mph winds when it made landfall in Fiji.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on April 27, 2016, 01:55:13 PM
As the Southern hemisphere season ends with a bang (Cyclone Fantala, a late season category 5 that went back and forth and dissipated because of that), we know the retired names from Atlantic and Eastern Pacific lists. From the Atlantic list fall Erika and Joaquin, and from the Eastern Pacific one the obvious falls, Patricia. You may be shocked by Erika being retired despite never reaching hurricane status, but the same was done with Allison back in 2001. At the opposite end stands Emily, its 2005 iteration is the only Category 5 hurricane not retired since the current lists were put into use. Joaquin got unlucky, it becomes one of those use-and-throw names (as it went just unused in 2009) like Ike or Igor. In 2021 the names Elsa and Julian in the Atlantic and Pamela in the EPAC will be used instead.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on May 27, 2016, 05:20:08 PM
TD 2 has formed by the Bahamas. Expected track takes it towards the South Carolina coastline
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 27, 2016, 06:13:47 PM
Yesterday the first tropical depression of the Western Pacific as recognised by the Japan Meteorologic Agency (JMA) formed, marking the fifth latest start on record, and half a year after the last depression disipated. This dull happened as El Nio faded away. That phenomenon, combined with a positive Indian Ocean dipole, made the Australian cyclone season the most boring on record, as only three tropical storms formed (Stan, Tatiana, Uriah), of which only one reached hurricane strenght according to the Saffir-Simpson scale (Stan, though Uriah reached category 4 but did so while in the Southwest Indian; no cyclones reached category 3, and thus hurricane strenght, according to the Australian scale).

Now that a TD has formed in the Atlantic, if it reaches tropical storm strenght, it won't be Alex since that was used already in January, but Bonnie.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on June 05, 2016, 11:12:58 AM
TD 3 has formed in the western Carribean. Expected tracks gives it a landfall in the panhandle of Florida as a tropical storm and skirts the East coast.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: TravelingBethelite on July 31, 2016, 09:10:58 PM
Invest 97L...hmm. Very close to being a tropical depression/storm but can't quite "close off" its LLC quite yet. And where's it going? Nobody knows...South TX, TX/LA, Yucatan, Mexico, Belize, Florida, what's going on. In my amatuerofessional opinion, when it closes off, it'll go right to Tropical Storm Earl.  :coffee: :meh: :hmmm:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 09, 2016, 11:23:40 AM
The Eastern Pacific season got to an inactive start, but then five tropical storms formed in the first half of July. Now that is a waking up :sombrero:. And I find the islamic state guilty of forcing tropical storm Ivette last week to have a different name (It would have been Isis otherwise).

Oh, and outside the NOAA (NHC/CPHC) area of responsability I always go with the RSMC. So I will consider a tropical cyclone to be already a tropical storm if it has been named even if the JTWC doesn't say so, and if JTWC considers an unnamed cyclone to be a tropical storm, I will call it a tropical depression since it's not named. Only named systems have reached at least tropical storm status for me.
I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.

This year a tropical storm formed in its area of responsability in July (which there is like January). Fortunately they had already released the lists for the next three seasons, so they were able to name it.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: dcbjms on September 03, 2016, 07:57:26 PM
So, someone was off their game with a particular tropical storm that starts with H which escaped from the Gulf of Mxico and is now meandering its way up the North Atlantic.  Received an NWS alert today, which was a rude shock to my Labor Day weekend.  This week is supposed to be nasty as a result, with catastrophic effects as a result along coastal RI and MA (including beach erosion).  And all while I'm supposed to get the house ready for an aunt who's flying in the area on Thursday.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 04, 2016, 11:34:53 AM
I've already 'killed' that H storm (Go ahead and say its name: Hermine) since it's no longer tropical. It was the first storm of that name to reach hurricane status. I've also seen Madeline battering Hawaii and now Lester passing to the North of the state. And Japan getting hit by several storms in a row: Kompasu, the 'North Korean' Mindulle (or Mindeulle as I spell it), Lionrock and its crazy track, and now Namtheun (Note: Kompasu goes between Lionrock and Namtheun in the naming list).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: dcbjms on September 04, 2016, 12:49:40 PM
I've already 'killed' that H storm (Go ahead and say its name: Hermine) since it's no longer tropical.

Still, it's going to be quite a menace around here in RI and southeastern Mass.  Beach erosion up and down the coast (on top of a 1-2 foot storm surge - occurring during high tide, IIRC), torrential rains even inland, not to mention the winds - I'd take a nor'easter over a hurricane any day.  I wouldn't discount it just yet.  And on top of that, it's going over Block Island (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_Island) directly - which is an extremely horrendous situation, given the limited evacuation options and its vulnerability to coastal erosion.  So I'm worried.

I've also seen Madeline battering Hawaii and now Lester passing to the North of the state. And Japan getting hit by several storms in a row: Kompasu, the 'North Korean' Mindulle (or Mindeulle as I spell it), Lionrock and its crazy track, and now Namtheun (Note: Kompasu goes between Lionrock and Namtheun in the naming list).

That's quite a mouthful for the Pacific. :eek:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Desert Man on September 09, 2016, 08:16:23 AM
Newton has broken up over Baja and Sonora, it sent its heavy rain throughout AZ and NM. An increase of humidity and some cloudiness expected for So CA. The cold front is pushing Newton away and high temps locally are in the 90s.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 09, 2016, 06:40:48 PM
Remnants of Newton is helping to drive the severe weather in the Midwest and central Plains, while giving me a rainy Friday night.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 13, 2016, 05:52:24 AM
Okay, I put some order in the Western Pacific. I don't recognize tropical storm Malou as such simply because it was not tropical, but subtropical (And Japan doesn't use the subtropical designation). I don't recognize tropical depression 17W because Japan didn't so. I recognize tropical storm Rai as such, not as a depression like JTWC did, because it was named. And I don't recognize typhoon Meranti... well, I recognize it, but not the unrealistically low winds Japan analyzes it (they ALWAYS do that), so I go with the JTWC estimate, extrapolated to 10 minutes (Category 5 with 160 mph 10-min sustained winds).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 14, 2016, 04:02:42 AM
How come a tropical storm has formed over land? I didn't believe that was possible, but Julia thinks otherwise. Anyway that is uninteresting to me since there is a category 5 typhoon that has peaked just short of Haiyan elsewhere (that would be Meranti).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Thing 342 on September 16, 2016, 12:21:57 AM
How come a tropical storm has formed over land? I didn't believe that was possible, but Julia thinks otherwise.
TDs frequently form onshore in the Indian Ocean region: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#Deep_Depression_BOB_02

...As for Mertanti, I strongly doubt it ever actually reached its stated peak intensity (165 kt, <890mb, per JTWC). Most objective Dvorak analyses only had it around T7.4 (about 150kt, 910mb; still pretty powerful, but nonetheless).
Compare between Meranti (L) and Haiyan (R) at their peaks. Somehow Meranti has a lower pressure and only 5kt slower wind speeds than Haiyan, despite having a much worse structure and warmer cloud tops.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsU9L6UWgAArFsd.jpg)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsU9M3JWIAAuUuR.jpg)

Is it too much to ask to get reconnaissance in the WPac?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Desert Man on September 19, 2016, 06:38:04 AM
And closer to home, Tropical storm Paine..."it's a pain"! x-D expect heavy rain to fall tonight and tomorrow in southern CA, esp the mountainous areas and high risk of wildfires from dry lightning. The last Tropical storm/depression to reach the southwest was Newton last week, dumped significant amounts of rainfall in southern Arizona.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: DeaconG on October 05, 2016, 05:37:35 AM
Well folks, Matthew and it's tag along Nicole is making a lot of people in Brevard County nervous. Right now the weather's clear and it's expected to be clear for most of the day...but after Wednesday night, it's going to start going downhill fast. Projected tracks take the Cat 4 hurricane between 50 and 100 miles off the Brevard County coast by 2 PM Friday afternoon.

Mandatory evacuations of the barrier islands from Port Canaveral down to Melbourne Beach and including Merritt Island start at 3 PM Wednesday.

From where I am (Port St. John) the winds are expected to be between 55 and 75 miles an hour with gusts up to 84 miles an hour (I'm about 19 miles off the coast). Repeat of Floyd in 1999, which had high winds but also had little rainfall, the projections I've seen from the NWC graphic forecast projections suggest the same thing.
Still, we're holding onto our nads ladies and gentlemen...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on October 05, 2016, 08:09:51 AM
Other than wrecking lives and causing a mess in the southern US, Matthew has been a cool storm in how it's already been acting, and its latest projections just continue that oddity.

I'm heading down to Punta Cana in a few weeks and a lot of other travelers have been nervous about going, although the storm never was anywhere close to the region. They did get some rain yesterday from an very outlying band, but little wind.

My better half, Nicole, is just spinning out in the Atlantic.  It looked like she was on a path to Bermuda to cause havoc there, which sounds like Nicole because she didn't especially care for the island, but now it just kinda seems like it'll just hang out for a while in the Atlantic.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 05, 2016, 08:19:31 AM
I was about to mention Matthew. It was the first category 5 Atlantic hurricane in nine years (Last one was Felix back in 2007). Now category 4... and it's going to be interesting. After hitting Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba it is headed for the East Coast.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 41 on October 05, 2016, 06:33:19 PM
It looks like there might be a developing tropical storm right behind Matthew.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1995hoo on October 05, 2016, 07:24:00 PM
My sister-in-law lives in Brevard County and is leaving tomorrow, "but not too early." She made a big deal about how she's taking her mobile phone with her.  :ded:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 05, 2016, 09:59:14 PM
It looks like there might be a developing tropical storm right behind Matthew.

You sure it's not Nicole? I see a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles. What I'm more worried about is the ensembles going with this loop track. Florida could get a double blow of a cat 2 or 3 hurricane
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 41 on October 05, 2016, 10:18:19 PM
It looks like there might be a developing tropical storm right behind Matthew.

You sure it's not Nicole? I see a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles. What I'm more worried about is the ensembles going with this loop track. Florida could get a double blow of a cat 2 or 3 hurricane

You're right. It is Nicole.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alex on October 05, 2016, 10:48:21 PM
It seemed like there was extra traffic on I-75 north of Florida's Turnpike and on I-10 west through to Mariana. There's an unfolded "Shelter" sign on I-10 westbound in Santa Rosa too.

SC shifted I-26 to contraflow northwest to I-77 today as well.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 41 on October 06, 2016, 07:26:29 PM
(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14479737_187224015019799_6858514892146218384_n.jpg?oh=4bf6b322fe8627d77e0b3ce343f97bc3&oe=5860AE23)

*as of 10/6 at 7:30 PM
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: oscar on October 07, 2016, 08:06:21 AM
SC shifted I-26 to contraflow northwest to I-77 today as well.

I was there yesterday, after the contraflow started. Weird thing was, I was on I-95 seeking to turn inland on I-26, but all the ramps in both directions (including to westbound I-26) were closed, with no signage for an alternate route onto I-26 or to Columbia. I don't know why the ramps to WB I-26 from I-95 were closed, other than perhaps to keep I-26 traffic out of Charleston moving freely (no congestion at that point, in either the rgular WB lanes or the contraflowed EB lanes) and steer I-95 traffic to use other evacuation routes instead.

I did continue south to US 178, where I turned west with no trouble, and used that and US 601 to get on I-26 in Orangeburg. No congestion on 178 westbound, but EB was a little heavy with traffic detoured from I-26.

Before then, I took US 701 to Georgetown (clinching that route, just in the nick of time), then turned inland on US 521 to I-95. On US 521 late yesterday afternoon, I passed a roadblock stopping traffic heading toward the coast.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jwolfer on October 16, 2016, 02:37:31 AM
Florida did not have contraflow on i10 out of Jacksonville which surprised me .. But there were not a lot of problems except right west of 295..  I think if it was a direct hit with more storm surge and flooding predicted it would have happened. I wanted to see the logistics of it

I found it interesting that those who took the contraflow lanes were all in no option to exit until Columbia. I would think that would make people want to avoid using those lanes.

LGMS428

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on November 24, 2016, 04:22:01 PM
Not every year one sees a hurricane making its way from the Atlantic (or more precisely the Caribbean) across Central America and into the Eastern Pacific like hurricane Otto (latest Caribbean hurricane on record) is doing now. Last time it happened was in 1996 with hurricane Cesar Douglas (note that now every tropical cyclone in the world will keep a single name through its lifetime).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: TravelingBethelite on August 24, 2017, 11:13:11 AM
Tropical Storm Harvey is rapidly intensifying and is now projected to be a major hurricane upon landfall in southeast Texas.

(https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=https%3A%2F%2Fweather.msfc.nasa.gov%2Fgoes%2Fabi%2Fdynamic%2FGOES15022017236qi6bgu.jpg&key=Jg-CpZHM_vAIJo3jlKyYiQ&w=800&h=596)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on August 24, 2017, 12:39:20 PM
That satellite imagery  :love: :love: :love:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on August 24, 2017, 02:37:58 PM
Is Elwood with him?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on August 24, 2017, 04:42:45 PM
Harvey is actually insane...This is the fastest intensification of a storm I have seen in years.  I fear for the worst when it comes to rainfall, due to the fact that it's scheduled to drift over the same spot for at least a few days.  This situation just got so much more threatening in such a short amount of time.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 24, 2017, 04:55:58 PM
^^ You missed hurricane Patricia? That was rapid intensification.

Anyway, the Southern hemisphere season turned to be dull, but got some late storms in the South Pacific. We also got typhoon Noru, the third longest-lived typhoon since records began, and the longest-lived with the current naming lists and also to have gone untracked by the Philippines' PAGASA (and thus not receiving a local name in the Philippines). During the time Noru was active, the next six names were used. Now we are with Harvey, which actually formed to the East of the Windward Islands and then dissipated in the Caribbean, but has reformed.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on August 24, 2017, 06:32:37 PM
Harvey is actually insane...This is the fastest intensification of a storm I have seen in years.  I fear for the worst when it comes to rainfall, due to the fact that it's scheduled to drift over the same spot for at least a few days.  This situation just got so much more threatening in such a short amount of time.

NOAA is predicting Level 3. They've also said if you need to move to safety, do it TODAY!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on August 25, 2017, 03:49:01 PM
3-5 feet of rain possible for the Texas Coast as this thing will only to Houston by Wed! Hope they own a boat
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: cjk374 on August 25, 2017, 08:45:00 PM
Harvey just upgraded to cat 4. This is not good. We are being told to get our gas tanks filled before prices spike. It is said that one third of the nation's refineries will be negatively affected by Harvey.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on August 25, 2017, 08:54:46 PM
Harvey just upgraded to cat 4. This is not good. We are being told to get our gas tanks filled before prices spike. It is said that one third of the nation's refineries will be negatively affected by Harvey.

I gassed up this afternoon and there was a line waiting.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on August 26, 2017, 01:51:41 AM
And Harvey makes landfall as a Category 4 with 130 mph winds. It's the first major hurricane landfall in the US since Wilma 2005, and the first US category 4 landfall since Charley 2004.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Desert Man on August 26, 2017, 09:49:56 PM
Harvey was the strongest hurricane to hit the US in over a decade...since Wilma in FL 12 years ago and Katrina in New Orleans and Miss. gulf coast the same year (Aug 2005). This hurricane season, 3 tropical storms came and gone: Louisiana was hit by Cindy, Florida by Emily and off the Carolinas was Gert which didn't have landfall. Halfway through this - brace yourself, Harvey won't be the only category 3 or 4 storm (the first in Tex. since 1961).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on August 27, 2017, 01:18:07 PM
There are sections of Houston that honestly may never recover from this....
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 09:33:17 AM
Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: epzik8 on August 28, 2017, 09:52:51 AM
It looks like Atlantic "potential Tropical Cyclone Ten" will impact the East Coast. Great.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on August 28, 2017, 10:34:33 AM
Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?

The bright green area for "flood warning" might be the vastest such area I've ever seen.  The Houston area has gotten 12-25 inches of rain, and another 20 inches are forecast.  See the following link; click around on the warning map to see details for specific areas, and also look at "storm total precip."

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

The following link is to the rain still forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093137.shtml?rainqpf#contents
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 12:42:34 PM
Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?

The bright green area for "flood warning" might be the vastest such area I've ever seen.  The Houston area has gotten 12-25 inches of rain, and another 20 inches are forecast.  See the following link; click around on the warning map to see details for specific areas, and also look at "storm total precip."

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

The following link is to the rain still forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093137.shtml?rainqpf#contents

I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashionessentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on August 28, 2017, 04:10:52 PM
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashionessentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.

You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen.  I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on August 28, 2017, 04:52:38 PM
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashionessentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.

You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen.  I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.

Most of the storm surge should have receded, the only problem is trying to differentiate what was once storm surge and what was dumped from the storm
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 07:58:30 PM
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashionessentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.

You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen.  I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.

Low-level aerial would work, too; anything showing the areal extent of the flooding, rather than just "this flood gauge is at major stage", etc.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 30, 2017, 04:04:13 PM
Since I track anythng anywhere in the world, I have developed a series of rules for me to classify a tropical cyclone as such:
If the NHC, CPHC, or JTWC number a depression, so I do. I also number those tropical storms that get named by the official RSMCs and overlooked by the JTWC, and those tropical depressions the Philippine PAGASA unofficially names (thus I have more tracks of tropical cyclones around Philippines than elsewhere).
Yes, I do use Philippine names, mainly for reference purposes. However I don't go with their political issues, and thus I have recorded the Philippine name of typhoon Melor (2015) as Nonoy instead of Nona (operationally I didn't mention a Philippine name, referring to it as simply Melor).
I count Eastern and Central Pacific together, but keeping the E and C labels (Thus the last depression of 2015 East of the Dateline was 31C for me). I also split the Southern hemisphere in three and labelling these areas R, U and F and with three different counts (going along with the RSMCs), rather than the two lettered S and P with a single numbering the JTWC does. I also keep the same designation for the entire life of a tropical cyclone (i.e. I kept Otto last year as 16L and didn't change to 23E when it reached the EPac).
If it's named (by Japan in the case of the WPac), it's a tropical storm. And likewise, I'll keep it as a tropical depression even if the JTWC considers it a tropical storm. The exception are some Australian "tropical lows", they don't classify them as cyclones until they have gale force winds halfway around the center. In that case, if it has gale force winds as recognized by Australia even if they don't extend halfway around the center, it's a tropical storm (The NHC would name it anyway).
Any named tropical cyclone that doesn't reach hurricane force is a tropical storm. However, neither India (Northern Indian), Australia nor Fiji (South Pacific) use that name officially. In those cases, "tropical storm" corresponds to "cyclonic storm" and "severe cyclonic storm" in the Northern Indian, and to categories 1 and 2 of the Australian scale (BTW, the Saffir-Simpson, or "American", scale doesn't have a "strong tropical storm" category while the rest of the world does). Once the cyclone reaches hurricane strength, I change to the appropiate moniker: Hurricane, typhoon, or cyclone. Usually the JTWC will reach category 1 before the RMSC declares a storm to have reached hurricane force, but that's due to different measurement lapses.
Subtropical storms are totally ignored by me as they aren't tropical. That's why my list of Atlantic storms for 2007 starts with Barry, skipping Andrea.
And the latest, added today: I don't count potential tropical cyclones (neither subtropical storms), simply because they aren't tropical cyclones. Thus, the recently formed Tropical Storm Irma (near Cape Cabo Verde, its name replaces Irene) is counted by me as 10L, not 11L.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Desert Man on September 02, 2017, 12:54:40 PM
Yes, terrible, terrible! There's even more. Irma might come to South FL next week (Sun the 9th?), but will cross the Antilles and Caribbean islands like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. We're facing tropical moisture in Southern CA by Mon. (Labor day) - Hurricane then tropical storm Lidia in Baja Cal. headed to the north. Our highs will go down to the 90s by cloud cover and we need a lil' bit of rain - and preparations for possible flooding.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 04, 2017, 03:50:35 AM
...Irma might come to South FL next week (Sun the 9th?)...

Ventusky (https://www.ventusky.com/) shows it happening on Monday the 11th. Looks like Harvey might not be the most destructive hurricane of the season if this turns out to be close to the actual track of Irma. As I understand, Miami is already dealing with issues related to sea-level rise, and they're not well equipped to handle a major land-falling hurricane this year.

Of course it's still very early to be predicting a landfall, but it wouldn't hurt to go ahead and recognize that the water off the coast of Miami is exceedingly hot right now, and any hurricane that does strike is likely to strengthen just before landfall. The good news is that, unlike Harvey, Irma will apparently be giving those in her potential path a bit more time to prepare.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 04, 2017, 05:59:08 AM
The advisories (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/040854.shtml) are sounding worse and worse with every update. I just watched the report on MSNBC and they showed the latest model tracks, and they are almost all in agreement now that by next weekend the storm will be a Cat 3 centered just barely north of Cuba, approaching the southern tip of Florida. It is at that point that model disagreement begins, with some showing it moving up the east coast of Florida and eventually back out to the Atlantic and a later landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas, while others have it skirting Florida's West Coast or entering the Gulf. Regardless of which track the storm takes, Irma looks like a real threat. She appears to be taking a step south for every two or three steps west. That's not good.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 04, 2017, 09:01:03 PM
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-irma-category-4-update-track-path-models/

Here is an update for Irma.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 04, 2017, 09:01:33 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/04/us/hurricane-irma-puerto-rico-florida/index.html

Updates
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 05, 2017, 12:44:10 AM
Now a cat 4, and honestly it could be a cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Not good.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 05, 2017, 08:30:39 AM
Now a cat 4, and honestly it could be a cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Not good.

Cat 5 this morning
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 05, 2017, 08:56:10 AM
Yup. Irma is now Category 5, and that means it's going to be retired (unless its name is Emily, which isn't the case), and it already replaced Irene. I have it with 150 mph winds since I report 10 minute sustained ones like the WMO recommends, as opposed to the 1 minute the NHC uses.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 05, 2017, 09:25:59 AM
I have it with 150 mph winds since I report 10 minute sustained ones like the WMO recommends, as opposed to the 1 minute the NHC uses.

Is the NHC wrong to use a one-minute rule? I'm trying to think of a reason this would be an issue. A 150 mph wind can do a lot of damage in one minute, but I'm no meteorologist and I suspect you probably have good reason to prefer a 10-minute rule.

In any case, Fox-4 News in Cape Coral, Florida is reporting top winds currently at 175 mph. If we had a Cat 6...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 05, 2017, 02:10:50 PM
So there's been another update a couple hours ago, and Ventusky (https://www.ventusky.com/) is showing what I would say is a nightmare scenario, in which Irma's eye comes into direct contact with Florida's East Coast at midday Sunday near Miami in what I guess would be called a half-landfall, then scrapes the coastline north all the way to Georgia before finally making a complete landfall late Monday afternoon somewhere near Savannah or Charleston.

If you aren't familiar with this website, which displays an averaged prediction based on the major computer models, don't worry, it's really easy to use. Try pressing the play button to see how the models' average has the storm tracking over the next week. You can easily jump to any date using the pop-up calendar and press play to see what happens from that point. You can also look at wind patterns from different elevations. Understand that anything beyond five days is highly speculative, but at least regarding Irma, the mainstream press has been following Ventusky's predictions, not the other way round.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on September 05, 2017, 02:33:11 PM
Irma is currently at 185mph.  Totally insane.  And then Jose forms behind it, adding insult to injury for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Irma is the most intense hurricane to ever form in the open Atlantic, which is to say, outside the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.  All of this is partly thanks to record-high warmth reported in Atlantic waters this year.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 05, 2017, 02:45:23 PM
At least Jose is forecasted to curve away from Puerto Rico and the other islands, although it'll come pretty close to them.

In an ironic sort of way, Irma will keep Jose from being too strong of a Hurricane, although it will probably still approach Cat 3 windspeeds.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: adventurernumber1 on September 05, 2017, 07:23:39 PM
Hurricane Irma may possibly be an unwelcome tragedy ready to hit the country following the devastation of Hurricane Harvey in Texas and the Gulf Coast. This approaching hurricane could potentially be heavy hits for Florida, Georgia, and more: http://www.macon.com/news/local/article171343967.html

It is quite eerie having such a huge hurricane (Category 5) come so soon after such a huge one (Harvey) has just affected our country. But being a weatherfan, I will highly be tuning into this news as it happens over the next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1995hoo on September 05, 2017, 10:14:50 PM
Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.

My brother-in-law near Miami just called. He has to stay because he's a fireman stationed at FLL airport, but his wife and kids (and their cats) are leaving Thursday and don't know where they'll go. Nearest relatives are in Fort Myers, which isn't much of an option, and near Melbourne, which doesn't look much better. Ms1995hoo said if they really want to drive a thousand miles they can come here....the Auto Train is already booked solid for the rest of the week.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 06, 2017, 05:07:13 AM
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.

Fixed for me as I don't count potential cyclones that eventually don't form. Fortunately the now Tropical Storm Katia is forecast to head South instead.

Fun fact: Katia is the replacement name for Katrina, and we have now a Category 5 super hurricane (with another name).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 06, 2017, 08:30:50 AM
I don't think the small town of Cordington on the island of Barbuda exists anymore. Suffered a direct hit from Irma with 185 mph winds, gusting to 220+
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 06, 2017, 09:19:19 AM
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.

Fixed for me as I don't count potential cyclones that eventually don't form. Fortunately the now Tropical Storm Katia is forecast to head South instead.

Fun fact: Katia is the replacement name for Katrina, and we have now a Category 5 super hurricane (with another name).

So, as you may know, Hurricane names run in 6 year cycles.  If a tropical storm or hurricane forms and has a name, that name will be retired if it's a notable storm (well, usually).  Generally, if the name isn't used or the storm just sits out at sea and does no harm, they'll reuse the name 6 years later. 

So, the Fun Fact Here:  Irma was the replacement name for Hurricane Irene.  Obviously, Irma is going to be a one-hit wonder.  Hurricane Irene was used several times though:

1981: The first year Irene was used, Irene became a hurricane over sea, but never was a threat to land.  After it weakened, the storm eventually drifted over France, simply bringing rain to that country.
1987: Not used, as not enough storms formed to reach an I-named storm.
1993: Again, not used due to a quiet storm season.
1999: Irene was a hurricane, and even went over Cuba and Florida.  While it caused damage and even responsible for 4 deaths (which to me makes it a notable storm), the name continued to be reused.
2005: Irene became a hurricane but never posed a threat to land (This was a very active storm year, and was the year of Katrina).
2011: Irene became a hurricane again and caused damage, flooding and deaths throughout several Caribbean islands.  It caused over $15 Billion in damage from Florida to Maine, and even Canada.  It caused 58 deaths.  Finally, the name was retired.

Another fun fact: Harvey was admitted as a name the same year as Irene.  That name got one more cycle's worth of use.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 06, 2017, 11:39:07 AM
Both Irene and Irma were used before the establishment of current lists in 1979: Irene in 1959 and 1971 and Irma in 1978. And yes, I know the lists are reused every 6 years in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (out to -140). Other basins just continue through a long list, and when they reach the end of the list they start over again and thus no Greek letters are used, such as in the Western Pacific (with Guchol being named today only 5 names remain before getting back to the start).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 06, 2017, 12:33:47 PM
Latest track shifted Irma to hit Miami, then go back offshore before land-falling somewhere along the southeast Atlantic coastline from Georgia to North Carolina
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 06, 2017, 02:32:00 PM
Wicked beautiful (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-hits-leeward-islands-peak-strength).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 06, 2017, 02:57:31 PM
Latest track shifted Irma to hit Miami, then go back offshore before land-falling somewhere along the southeast Atlantic coastline from Georgia to North Carolina

That's exactly right, a double landfall. More specifically, Miami and points south should be prepared for landfall of a ridiculously strong cat 5 hurricane (the model average is a strong cat 4, but 5 is very possible and should be the focus of preparations. Irma has outperformed her forecasters' predictions for a couple days now). Much of Florida's eastern coastline may be spared a direct hit but instead take a long ride through the western half of the storm after it re-enters the Atlantic Ocean north of Miami. Coastal Georgia and South Carolina, particularly from Savannah to Charleston, should be prepared for a cat 3 or 4 landfall.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: DeaconG on September 06, 2017, 03:02:18 PM
Oh, lovely. Just checked the NHC track and Irma's projected to exit Florida right where I live (Brevard County). Lovely.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1995hoo on September 06, 2017, 04:05:44 PM
Oh, lovely. Just checked the NHC track and Irma's projected to exit Florida right where I live (Brevard County). Lovely.

The track I saw showed the eye passing more or less right over my brother-in-law's area of Broward County and then the storm exiting near my sister-in-law's area in Brevard.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: epzik8 on September 06, 2017, 05:45:09 PM
My dad and stepmom recently moved to Sarasota and i also have friends with Florida relatives.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Stephane Dumas on September 06, 2017, 08:27:47 PM
Much more worrying, there's 2 nuclear plants in South Florida who's in Irma path. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171542692.html
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: DeaconG on September 07, 2017, 12:03:22 PM
Brevard County has just ordered a mandatory evacuation of the beaches and Merritt Island, starting at 3 PM Friday. The latest track shows Irma passing right over KSC. (I live 15 miles west of KSC).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 07, 2017, 01:17:41 PM
The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 07, 2017, 01:29:02 PM
The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.

Other forces are at play. Namely, the front that is causing Irma to turn north in the first place.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: wxfree on September 07, 2017, 03:57:35 PM
The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.
There may be some effect from interaction with land.  It's been over tiny islands but is now closer to Hispaniola and, soon, Cuba.  That disrupts the wind pattern, which may weaken it.  As long as the eye and most of the core remain over water the effect should be fairly small.  The forecast shows gradual weakening.  In addition to interaction with land, there's the cold front that was mentioned.  That will likely come along with less upper-level outflow and more shear.  Also, when that cold front is approaching there may be some dry air intrusion.  A hurricane is a precision machine.  Many components can contribute to or detract from a storm's intensity.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 07, 2017, 04:12:12 PM

Other forces are at play. Namely, the front that is causing Irma to turn north in the first place.


Yeah, that must be it. I suppose it would do so with an influx of dry air? Meteorologists are not entirely in agreement about whether that front will weaken the storm much. Some don't think it will be enough to counteract the hot water that surrounds Florida, and so they say that if it does anything at all it will strengthen before landfall. I've also heard the idea that the front won't approach fast enough to impact Irma all that much. She'd still turn north because the general trend is toward the poles, and she's gonna turn that way as soon as the strong Bermuda high will allow it. I have no formal knowledge of the subject, but as an interested layman it makes less sense to me that it might weaken.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 07, 2017, 04:21:47 PM
... A hurricane is a precision machine.  Many components can contribute to or detract from a storm's intensity.

Yeah, while our forecasts are not quite so precise, haha. The models have always done a better job of forecasting a storm's path than they've done of forecasting its intensity.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 07, 2017, 04:56:14 PM
More than likely, the incoming trough that'll help direct Irma will also bring in a bit of shear which hurricanes do not like hence the slight weakening to a cat 4 possibly. Reason why Irma has thrived as a 170-185 mph storm is the lack of shear.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: hm insulators on September 08, 2017, 07:18:25 PM
Best wishes to everyone in Irma's path! It looks like, according to the latest model runs, that the storm will go right up the peninsula from the Keys up to the Georgia line and beyond. And as I was saying in another forum I belong to, if Irma should want to blast through Orlando (with all its tourist attractions such as Disney World), Tinkerbell could sprinkle all the pixie dust in the world; it ain't gonna do a damn bit of good.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CtrlAltDel on September 08, 2017, 10:29:30 PM
Barbuda, hit by Irma, is about to meet Jose. The poor bastards.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 09, 2017, 12:39:33 AM
And Katia just hit Mexico as a cat 2. Mexico just had that 8.4 magnitude earthquake so not looking good for them either.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 09, 2017, 09:41:12 AM
The latest forecast track (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma?mr=1) says Key West, Naples and Tampa could all see the eye of cat 5 Irma. On TV they said that Key West High School is filled to capacity with evacuees, yet emergency management experts are saying the high school may not be safe. A few days ago I said that in the end Irma might make Harvey seem tame by comparison, and the storm still seems to have that potential. I'm happy to say that the several people I know who live in South Florida have either left the state or evacuated to Orlando.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: DeaconG on September 09, 2017, 04:32:28 PM
Yes, that track shifting west just enough to get Irma off from over me...but my extended family in the Tampa metro area are about to have issues. I'm looking at tropical storm winds by Monday versus Cat 3 several days ago.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 09, 2017, 06:56:00 PM
http://wfla.com/2017/09/09/traffic-alert-should-use-allowed-on-i-4-from-tampa-to-orlando/

Update Shoulders could be used as the passing lane for hurricane evacuation.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1995hoo on September 10, 2017, 11:39:29 AM
The 11:00 update for Irma's track showed it had turned somewhat directly to the north. Looks like a direct track towards the area of Fort Myers where our relatives live. They won't be going anywhere any time soon because the one road that leads in and out of their neighborhood (Briarcliff Road) will surely flood. It floods during ordinary thunderstorms.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1995hoo on September 10, 2017, 05:51:28 PM
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1995hoo on September 10, 2017, 09:32:13 PM
I'm not sure whether to applaud our relatives staying in Fort Myers. But I'm chuffed they're OK so far (21:11 Sunday).....

Quote
We feel we are safe - and made it! Some trees and screens that we can see, street is flooded but just at end of driveway here so hopefully won't be an issue - storm surge is still to come so we won't know till later or tomorrow about mom and dads. Thank you for all the prayers and support we'll continue to send updates when the sunshines! ❤️

Her parents live closer to the coast and flooding was a serious worry.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 10, 2017, 10:17:01 PM
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-irma-fears-toxins-20170910-story.html

Update on Irma
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 11, 2017, 06:20:47 AM
After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.

Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths.  We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts.  3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers.  Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error  Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state.  That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.

The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather".  And they are right about that.  But they can predict the weather.  And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Desert Man on September 11, 2017, 08:26:26 AM
Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 11, 2017, 08:43:21 AM
Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.

??

Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.

Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane?  Or are you just throwing ideas out there?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Desert Man on September 11, 2017, 10:00:46 AM
Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.

??

Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.

Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane?  Or are you just throwing ideas out there?

Based on predictions by a few Youtube channels of amateurs, but you're giving me a more professional idea of where Jose is headed. The NWS and NOAA aren't 100% accurate...then again, they're reliable people when it comes to hurricane tracking.

Found this image on another message board I frequent in:
http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/59b686ca787d2_6z911.png.e9f5e44ec1e90c228dc48405f2170e7f.png

Katia came and went in northern/northeast Mexico and it sends some rain to South TX and by the weekend, the Southwest US. We had 3 days of monsoonal storms in so CA already.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 11, 2017, 10:18:33 AM
After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.

Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths.  We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts.  3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers.  Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error  Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state.  That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.

The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather".  And they are right about that.  But they can predict the weather.  And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.

It didn't matter where the hurricane was going to go as a center track. No matter what the entire peninsula of Florida was going to feel its effects. The extra balloons sent up across the central US helped to modify the track of Irma as the trough didn't dig as deep as many models were predicting which resulted in Irma going up the west coast instead of Miami and a GA/SC landfall. Many professionals in the industry were already skeptical in the Wed-Thursday timeframe about the track and noted it on many forecast discussions about a possible shift westward.

I think overall this hurricane was handled pretty good, outside of the last minute east-to-west coast shift. It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley. In fact, Cuba helped to keep the hurricane as a minimal cat 4 instead of the possible cat 5 everyone was expecting. They planned for a cat 5, and many towns are saying they're glad they did because now they can handle the cat 3 and 4 damage seen on TV screens.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 11, 2017, 12:08:26 PM
http://www.wtxl.com/news/list-blocked-roads-in-wakulla-county/article_3045aada-9702-11e7-bcb9-2b312c9adb1f.html

Update on roads closed in Tallahassee due to Irma.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 11, 2017, 12:24:50 PM
It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley.

Because of the size of the storm, it would have had to veer way off track for the entire state not to feel the effects.  And that's one of the reasons why the tracking of the hurricane won't get the attention it deserves.  Throwing out a little example here: If it was a smaller hurricane that was going to hit Miami and they advised everyone to head west, only for the track to change and it go up the west coast where everyone evacuated to, then everyone would've been thrown into the storm rather than steered away from it.

Another, maybe better example: The hurricane was supposed to stay east and head up towards South Carolina.  Many of the evacuees headed Northwest towards Atlanta.  Where is the hurricane tracking...towards Atlanta!  Sure, it'll only be a Cat 1 or a Tropical Strom by the time it gets up there, but it shows that the days of pre-planning and constant forecasting only continued to put people in harms way, not out of the way.

Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.

??

Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.

Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane?  Or are you just throwing ideas out there?

Based on predictions by a few Youtube channels of amateurs, but you're giving me a more professional idea of where Jose is headed. The NWS and NOAA aren't 100% accurate...then again, they're reliable people when it comes to hurricane tracking.

OK...good to know.  Youtubers are probably the worst at this stuff - they know everything...and afterwards, will still know everything, even though they were completely wrong!

Then again, the NWS, NOAA, and most news stations aren't too much better! lol
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 11, 2017, 12:40:09 PM
Here's one report (that I just happened to see linked from another site) regarding Jose.  Basically, it's going to sit out at sea south of Bermuda for much of the week, before eventually start to head towards the US.  It could hit nearly anywhere along the east coast from Florida to Nova Scotia, or go out to see, but it is incredibly too far away to know what path it'll take, and there are numerous other fronts and weather systems that'll impact it's ultimate path.  Since the waters are a bit cooler compared to the Caribbean and south, strengthening of this storm to major status probably won't happen.  That said, that's not necessary for a lot of destruction to occur.  Sandy wasn't even a hurricane when it hit the NJ/NY region; but it was an incredibly large storm, which allowed it to become the mess that it was.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/could-hurricane-jose-be-a-threat-to-the-us-later-in-september/70002694
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 11, 2017, 01:00:12 PM
It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley.

Because of the size of the storm, it would have had to veer way off track for the entire state not to feel the effects.  And that's one of the reasons why the tracking of the hurricane won't get the attention it deserves.  Throwing out a little example here: If it was a smaller hurricane that was going to hit Miami and they advised everyone to head west, only for the track to change and it go up the west coast where everyone evacuated to, then everyone would've been thrown into the storm rather than steered away from it.

Another, maybe better example: The hurricane was supposed to stay east and head up towards South Carolina.  Many of the evacuees headed Northwest towards Atlanta.  Where is the hurricane tracking...towards Atlanta!  Sure, it'll only be a Cat 1 or a Tropical Strom by the time it gets up there, but it shows that the days of pre-planning and constant forecasting only continued to put people in harms way, not out of the way.


That's why there's an update every 3 hours from the NHC on what's happening with this storm. This is why we have the cone of uncertainty, which covered all the outliers that could have happened. This included the west or eastward track if it occurred. Overall, people knew that this storm was going to affect Florida and the Southeast as early as last Wednesday. One of my last projects as a meteorology student was to do a rough synopsis on how models handle hurricanes and the result was this: Computers can only do so much. They're getting more accurate with each passing season but a TON of variables come into play that computer models have a hard time figuring out (landmass heights on how it could weaken a storm and cities were some of the big issues plaguing coders today).

But hell it was handled well enough and a lot better than previous storms of recent memory (Sandy and Matthew are the top 2 in my mind). It's getting there, but far from perfect.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: wxfree on September 11, 2017, 01:26:37 PM
After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.

Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths.  We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts.  3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers.  Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error  Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state.  That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.

The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather".  And they are right about that.  But they can predict the weather.  And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.

I just reviewed the graphics archive, and the actual path it's followed so far was at no point outside of the cone.  Its projected path is outside of some of the earlier days 4 and 5 cones.  I heard a meteorologist talking about how some people think they shouldn't give a center line, because it too easily draws all of the attention.  I thought that years ago, and noticed when in 2007 they started making available the maps showing the cone and forecast points with no track line.  Now the maps come with a warning that the position forecast is for the center of the storm, and that hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone away from the future center position.  That's another important point that's often ignored, like the cone itself, while people focus on the line.  These are improvements, but people still pay too much attention to the line, which is still available.

The real problem is the shape of Florida.  You can't evacuate away from one coast without moving toward another one, and you can't go south without potentially trapping yourself, so there's only one true evacuation direction.  In most places you can go away from the coast or either direction along it without running out of land, so you don't need a pinpoint forecast.  Florida is in a difficult location, because they stick out in the way of hurricanes and it's hard to get away from them.

It's only a matter of opinion, but I really think the forecast went well.  I'm sure a scientific analysis will be done on how wrong it was and why it wasn't better.  I think the problem was the location.  An equal amount of forecast uncertainty wouldn't be as much of a problem just about anywhere else.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: adventurernumber1 on September 11, 2017, 04:14:32 PM
I've been watching The Weather Channel, and due to Hurricane Irma, in Clearwater, Florida, power has been blasted, and all of the traffic signals are out, among other things. As a result, motorists are having to treat intersections as an all-way stop.

Also due to Hurricane Irma, the Atlanta Airport has been receiving wind gusts close to 60 MPH, and the Atlanta area in general is getting hit pretty hard right now.

Also, much of the coastal southeast is having really bad flash-flooding problems, including Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC.

And unsurprisingly, tornado watches have been popping up everywhere due to Hurricane Irma.

Needless to say, Hurricane Irma is a mess. With me residing in northwest Georgia, lots of rain and wind is here and much more will be coming our way. Hope everyone else is doing okay.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SP Cook on September 11, 2017, 04:16:27 PM
The advances in weather forcasting in my lifetime have been amazing.   The idea that "we pay a lot of money so it should be better" is just wrong.  It is what it is, something less than perfect is most often the best that can be done at any price. 

The road related issue with this, IMHO, is this shows that having only one way out of SW Florida is not safe, and a diagonal is needed.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 11, 2017, 07:56:30 PM
http://gpbnews.org/post/hurricane-irma-tropical-storm-warning-remains-effect-georgia-coast-under-storm-surge-warning

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/irmas-strong-winds-causing-damage-in-ga

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/tropical-storm-irma-minute-by-minute/607259789

http://www.11alive.com/weather/irma/power-out-watch-11alives-coverage-of-irma-here/473687040

Update the state of Georgia is now hit by Tropical Storm Irma.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 11, 2017, 11:34:15 PM
http://www.live5news.com/story/36339889/upstate-man-trying-to-clear-road-debris-killed-in-scs-first-storm-related-death

http://wiat.com/2017/09/10/tracking-irma-school-closings-in-alabama-for-monday-and-tuesday/

http://wkrn.com/2017/09/11/tema-declares-state-of-emergency-nashville-eoc-to-partially-activate/

Update South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama are on Irma Watch.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 12, 2017, 04:48:22 PM
Pretty good article "Why didn't Hurricane Irma kill more Americans? Thank the meteorologists"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 13, 2017, 05:58:53 AM

Haha! When I heard about that I immediately remembered the scene in 'Key Largo' (a superb movie, by the way) where Humphrey Bogart asks Edward G Robinson, who plays a tough-guy mobster who is very suddenly scared shitless by an approaching hurricane, "why don't you pull out your gun and shoot it?" Obviously, the producers of that picture could count on audiences being smart enough to know how stupid that idea would be. My, how America has changed!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 13, 2017, 06:27:01 AM
Pretty good article "Why didn't Hurricane Irma kill more Americans? Thank the meteorologists"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html)

I guess people didn't watch 24 hour news & weather channels in 1900 and 1957. 

I also guess that the article is hoping people wouldn't remember such a fact that TV barely existed back then.

Maybe they're also hoping that after the reader reads "...about 250 deaths per decade from 1970 to 1999.
The number of people killed in hurricanes halves about every 25 years...", they'll forgotten this fact when they get to "In Hurricane Katrina, which ravaged New Orleans in 2005 and remains Americas deadliest storm in decades, one mortality study found that many of the 1,170 or more victims died in flooding near where the storm breached man-made levees.". 

That storm alone killed over 4 decades worth of people, based on their previously mentioned figures.

Odd and misinformed article.

Have we gotten better at knowing these storms are out there and where they're going?  Yes.  Have we gotten better is truly predicting these storms?  Not really.  Have we gotten better at telling everyone about the storm?  Yes, but not because of meteorologists...it's because of all the various forms of communication out here.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 13, 2017, 12:39:19 PM

Odd and misinformed article.


I would say that the parts of your post I'm not quoting are mostly accurate, but this seems to be a non sequitor. The article was lucid and informative. It didn't say that only meteorologists should get the credit for better forecasting. To me it seemed like the writer was thanking the science of meteorology, which credits a lot more people. It also acknowledged the actions of the state of Florida and the federal government, both of which handled this one quite well.

At the time of Hurricane Audrey in 1957, anyone who didn't have TV did have radio, and radio provided more news and weather coverage than TV in those days. Audrey was pretty important in furthering our knowledge of tropical cyclones. We were able to track it with high accuracy thanks to the Hurricane Hunters and radar images, plus the unfortunate oil companies and their doomed workers whose rigs were destroyed one by one as Audrey advanced through the Gulf. Satellites imagery hadn't yet become available, and the computer modeling was done on systems that could be easily outperformed by the phone in your pocket. And yet we were able to issue forecasts that turned out to be mostly accurate. Meteorology does indeed deserve lots of credit.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 41 on September 14, 2017, 04:25:42 PM
Satellite view of the remnants of Irma after it had moved past Florida.

https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/hires/2017/1-nasaseesremn.jpg
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: adventurernumber1 on September 14, 2017, 09:59:31 PM
http://www.fox4now.com/news/state/unprecedented-river-flooding-could-close-i-75-in-north-florida

The Santa Fe River has been rapidly rising within the past two days.

Hurricane Irma has spiked the threat and risk that Interstate 75 between Interstate 10 and Alachua will be closed due to possible flooding from the Santa Fe River.

Should this happen, it is very likely that in the area, other roads such as US 27, US 41, FL SR 47, and a typo "US 121" - they either meant to say FL 121 or US 129, would face a similar problem, and that there would be closures and reroutings.

Should Interstate 75 be flooded at the river, FDOT will reroute traffic to US 19, US 301, and Interstate 95. It has been professionally advised that any Floridians planning on traveling to Central or Southern Florida should consider traveling southbound on I-95.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 15, 2017, 12:23:25 AM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/09/14/hurricane-jose-ambles-toward-u-s-coast-but-likely-head-north-offshore/665135001/

Update hurricane Jose is at play.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 15, 2017, 12:39:02 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/09/14/hurricane-jose-ambles-toward-u-s-coast-but-likely-head-north-offshore/665135001/

Update hurricane Jose is at play.

Indeed, and tropical depression 14 (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-depression-fourteen) also lurks. Forecasters seem certain it will soon be a tropical storm. Right now it's encountering shear, but that won't last more than a few days. Conditions on the Atlantic crossing are generally favorable to development, and it is on a very westerly track. I suppose what happens next might depend on whether a new Bermuda high develops.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1 on September 15, 2017, 05:19:37 PM
Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jp the roadgeek on September 17, 2017, 01:07:39 AM
Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.

Jose's track now a little farther east.  Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands.  Only concerns are rip currents and rain.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on September 17, 2017, 09:42:22 AM
Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.

Jose's track now a little farther east.  Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands.  Only concerns are rip currents and rain.

Maria, on the other hand
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: roadman on September 18, 2017, 11:05:47 AM
Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.

Jose's track now a little farther east.  Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands.  Only concerns are rip currents and rain.
As of the 11 am (Monday) National Hurricane Center Hose update, Cape Cod and Islands, and most of coastal Massachusetts currently under tropical storm warning for winds and rain (although the local NOAA office in Taunton is still showing only a tropical storm watch for most of costal Massachusetts)EDIT - Taunton NOAA office just updated to tropical storm warning as well.  So we're not quite out of the woods yet.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 18, 2017, 01:11:37 PM
Jose is looking more and more like an extra-tropical system than a hurricane. Most of the convection is to the north of the main circulation
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on September 18, 2017, 09:26:04 PM
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 18, 2017, 09:49:03 PM
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SSOWorld on September 19, 2017, 05:35:46 AM
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 19, 2017, 08:36:07 AM
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.

Maybe you should become a forecaster, see how good you do. Never heard of "bombing" when it comes to low pressure and hurricanes?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 19, 2017, 09:05:48 AM
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:

That's their JOB!

We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.

With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on.  Many lives depend on their accuracy.

So yes, I expect them to be perfect.   

Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street.  We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.

Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on September 19, 2017, 09:11:07 AM
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:

That's their JOB!

We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.

With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on.  Many lives depend on their accuracy.

So yes, I expect them to be perfect.   

Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street.  We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.

Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.

Dude, knock it off on weather forecasting.  There's still a lot we don't know the exacts of.  We still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense.  We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.  We also still don't quite fully understand why some storms dump more water than others.  Those things are still difficult to understand with hurricanes.  We've learned a hell of a lot since we really got going in the satellite era, but we're not even close to fully grasping how they work fully.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 19, 2017, 09:21:15 AM
I don't see why they are still issuing advisories on Jose when it is clearly extratropical already.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.

You have missed Otis in the Eastern Pacific :sombrero:.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 19, 2017, 09:32:39 AM
Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:

That's their JOB!

We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.

With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on.  Many lives depend on their accuracy.

So yes, I expect them to be perfect.   

Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street.  We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.

Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.

Be my guest then. Forecast this hurricane for the next week. Updates every 3 hours, pressure in millibars, wind speed, water temperature ahead and under the storm, current position and direction/speed of travel, and a spaghetti plot of all possible tracks/intensities for this storm from the model ensembles. Also issue tropical advisories for any landmass in the way and start informing whether the US should be concerned with this storm based on the track. Then based on all this information, give out a forecast discussion as to why you think a certain ensemble run is better than the other and your opinion on what this storm could do.

I'll give you a link to all the tools you need. Everything from upper air readings to future models from the surface to 10km up on multiple computer models, even new imagery from the GOES-16 satellite to see how this hurricane bombed and turned into a cat 5 so quickly: http://weather.cod.edu/ (http://weather.cod.edu/)

Only rule: don't use the NHC website, as I want you to be the hurricane forecaster. Have fun and try to be 100% perfect. If you start now, I'll take an update at 11:30am CST  :)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 19, 2017, 10:21:47 AM
Who said I'm forecasting the weather, or want to forecast the weather?  I said I want those whose job it is to forecast it to forecast it.

Quote
We still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense.  We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.

If a storm is known to become more intense, then that should be forecasted.  That's really the whole point of a forecast.  Also, not all storms suddenly get more intense.  This year has been unusual with several Cat 5 storms, but we've had 13 named storms so far.  Many weren't even hurricanes, showing that not all storms get instance.


Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 19, 2017, 11:06:08 AM
Who said I'm forecasting the weather, or want to forecast the weather?  I said I want those whose job it is to forecast it to forecast it.

Quote
We still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense.  We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.

If a storm is known to become more intense, then that should be forecasted.  That's really the whole point of a forecast.  Also, not all storms suddenly get more intense.  This year has been unusual with several Cat 5 storms, but we've had 13 named storms so far.  Many weren't even hurricanes, showing that not all storms get instance.

And there's the science. That's what we're trying to figure out still. Why did Maria go berserk in 24 hours but Lee faded away? Why does one supercell produce a tornado yet another one doesn't? Why did Jose do a pinwheel instead of following right behind Irma? There are still plenty of questions to be answered as this atmosphere can change within seconds with so many variables and factors being pulled into account.

Maybe that's what you can do, since you clearly think forecasters aren't doing their job right. Help solve these questions and plug those answers into the computer models to better forecast the weather.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SP Cook on September 19, 2017, 11:52:31 AM
Expecting a weather forecast of any type to be "perfect" and believing that it is someone's "job" to be perfect is silly.   While weather forecasting, mostly due to satellites, has improved greatly, and will probably continue to do so, it is not yet, and probably will never be, "perfect".

The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard.  Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the anlalogy fails totally.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 19, 2017, 12:08:32 PM
If weather forecasting is to be perfect, you need the models to hit a home run every single run with minute by minute updates on anything related to weather (temp, humidity, wind speed, etc). If models are 100% correct all the time, you wouldn't need forecasters. That amount of computation and application honestly isn't there yet and probably won't be for awhile.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: roadman on September 19, 2017, 12:36:21 PM
The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard.  Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the analogy fails totally.

^^^^^^ this
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Desert Man on September 19, 2017, 01:11:25 PM
Maria sweeps through the Antilles, headed to Puerto Rico and on a similar Northwest path like Irma...this is of special concern for the Bahamas and a serious matter for Florida. The problem is we're not going to get a specific path on any hurricane tracking model. Maria is thought to be a threat to the Carolinas and Georgia as well the east coast of Florida, esp. north of Miami, a more populated urban/metro area than where Irma's eye made landfall.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 19, 2017, 01:30:19 PM
Maria sweeps through the Antilles, headed to Puerto Rico and on a similar Northwest path like Irma...this is of special concern for the Bahamas and a serious matter for Florida. The problem is we're not going to get a specific path on any hurricane tracking model. Maria is thought to be a threat to the Carolinas and Georgia as well the east coast of Florida, esp. north of Miami, a more populated urban/metro area than where Irma's eye made landfall.

The forecasts I've seen actually keep it out to sea until it's up as far north as the Carolinas during the weekend or early next week.  At that point, they say there's just way too many variables to know right now. One interesting discussion has it meeting up with Jose.  The mixing of the two hurricanes will then be throttle Jose back towards the US and sends Maria out to sea.

The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard.  Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the analogy fails totally.

^^^^^^ this

Then why do we have several hundreds of pages of signage issues?

From *our* perspective, because we look at so many details, we note every little imperfection.  The proper sign is usually in the proper place - a missing One Way or Do Not Enter would have significant repercussions.  Most of our issues are looking at why 2 different fonts are being used on the same sign and other minor issues that the vast majority of people don't care about (including the guys that had anything to do with such signage).

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1 on September 19, 2017, 01:55:10 PM
Harvey hit a red part of Texas (yes, Houston proper is blue, but red areas were hit more than blue, even accounting for population).

Irma (at least the eye) hit more red areas than blue areas in Florida.

Jose avoided the United States, but it would have hit blue areas (Massachusetts/Rhode Island) if it did hit.

Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.

Result? Mother Nature is making sure that Texas, Florida, and North Carolina will be blue in 2020.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SP Cook on September 19, 2017, 02:18:03 PM


Then why do we have several hundreds of pages of signage issues?


Explained.  Because it is a simple task about which something close to "perfect" can be demanded.  Totally different from making the unreasonable demand that a (perhaps the most) complex system, with millions of variables be "perfectly" predicted. 
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 19, 2017, 02:18:18 PM
Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.


Laying aside the politics, that scenario doesn't appear to be likely. The latest update shows Maria curving back into the Atlantic. Noreaster Jose will keep Maria away, it would seem.

A number of local TV meteorologists are posting daily in-depth updates on tropical weather to youtube. Among the better ones, in my opinion, is Tim Pandajis. He explains a lot, in clear language, and the forecast goes well beyond what you get from the TV newscast, unless you happen to live in an area where a tropical cyclone is likely to strike soon. Here's the forecast he posted just a few minutes ago:

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Indyroads on September 20, 2017, 02:03:40 PM
Harvey hit a red part of Texas (yes, Houston proper is blue, but red areas were hit more than blue, even accounting for population).

Irma (at least the eye) hit more red areas than blue areas in Florida.

Jose avoided the United States, but it would have hit blue areas (Massachusetts/Rhode Island) if it did hit.

Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.

Result? Mother Nature is making sure that Texas, Florida, and North Carolina will be blue in 2020.
Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.


Laying aside the politics, that scenario doesn't appear to be likely. The latest update shows Maria curving back into the Atlantic. '

Agreed. This is a weather threat. After all "Hate has no home here". Hurricanes kill many good people, not something to make light of, really. 100's have died across the US and Tens of milliions have been affected in places like USVI, PR, FL, GA, TX, LA and many other places not to mention the our foreign neighbors in the carribbean and earthquake victims in Mexico city reeling today from the devastation. Disaster should bring us together not divide us.

We should be praying and be in solidarity and support relief efforts for PR and USVI today as they are our latest American victims of Maria and pray and hope that Maria doesnt make a bullseye of the Eastern Seaboard.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: berberry on September 20, 2017, 03:28:32 PM
Thanks, Indyroads. I also prefer to leave this thread to discussions of tropical weather only.

So if you watched that video I posted yesterday from Tim Pandajis, you may remember he mentioned something called the Fujiwhara Effect, by which two tropical systems can merge into one. It is an exceedingly rare event, but over the past 24 hours it has become more likely to happen between Maria and Jose. If you're interested to know more, I'll link today's video from Pandajis, where he again explains the effect and shows how it might happen soon.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 26, 2017, 12:02:06 PM
Wow, this year to date there has been two category 5 Atlantic hurricanes (Irma and Maria) and only one category 5 typhoon (Noru). I like the Western Pacific as it produces several category 5s per year, sometimes going wild. Not this year, though.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 04, 2017, 11:51:14 AM
Soon to be Tropical Storm Nate has formed just offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras. This storm could affect the US Gulf Coast, with interests between Tampa Bay and New Orleans needing to watch. Landfall looks to be some point Sunday
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: triplemultiplex on October 06, 2017, 03:15:46 PM
Nate is aiming for the Mississippi Delta. Should be a weak hurricane by the time it gets there.
At least this one ain't gonna pull a Harvey and park itself anywhere. 
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on October 06, 2017, 10:43:34 PM
Jim Cantore is reported to be at Orange Beach, AL
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 06, 2017, 11:24:22 PM
Oh god... Im not going there to meet the Hurricane Magnet!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 06, 2017, 11:36:53 PM
Well... just updated. Nate is now a 75 mph Cat 1. Im betting itll reach Cat 2.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on October 07, 2017, 03:54:33 PM
Well... just updated. Nate is now a 75 mph Cat 1. Im betting itll reach Cat 2.

It did, at 90 mph (Edit: Whoops...that's still Cat 1, my bad).  It may strengthen a little more prior to hitting land.

As far as hurricanes go, this one's gonna get a speeding ticket.  It's moving NNW at an amazing 25 mph, getting ready to turn N then NNE.  Hurricanes generally like warmer water, and the water temperature is still in the upper 70's, but there's a ridge the storm has attached itself to that is causing this one to fly thru the Gulf.

It'll hit land tonight.  This time tomorrow it'll already be near Kentucky, and in 48 hours - Monday Evening - it'll be around New York State!

The NHC site has good discussion about it: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071504.shtml? .  Click on the 'Graphics' link to view the various paths and cones.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 10, 2017, 03:34:35 PM
Then Ophelia decided to form. Will we get to Rina? Will we get to Whitney for all I care? Probably not... Rina, probably.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 10, 2017, 05:35:54 PM
This year's list is the same one that was exhausted in 2005 except for a few names that were replaced. I would like to see another Vince, but I guess we will end with Philippe or Rina.

Side note: in 2014 we got a hurricane Vance in the Pacific.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 26, 2017, 08:37:12 AM
From NHC: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
and Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to limit
development of this system during the next 24 hours. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system
to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central
America and Cuba during the next couple of days. These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Next name is Philippe.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 26, 2017, 04:54:04 PM
Meanwhile the Western Pacific has run out of names. Unlike the NHC, Japan uses only one long list, and every year they continue from where they left the previous year. So now they have reached the end, they start over from the beginning.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 27, 2017, 02:32:16 PM
A tropical low has become really organized. Now with a high 80% chance to develop.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 28, 2017, 02:01:57 PM
TD-18 has formed just south of Cuba
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 30, 2017, 01:37:14 PM
TD-18 has formed just south of Cuba
Although it came and went, it developed into Philippe. Next name is Rina... shouldve found a better replacement name for Rita.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on October 31, 2017, 10:08:42 AM
TD-18 has formed just south of Cuba
Although it came and went, it developed into Philippe. Next name is Rina... shouldve found a better replacement name for Rita.

Lovely Rina, mener maid! :-D
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on November 02, 2017, 07:44:09 AM
Harvey the costliest storm on record. Wow.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on November 02, 2017, 08:44:41 AM
Harvey the costliest storm on record. Wow.

Not surprising considering the entire region of southeastern Texas was destroyed in some fashion: wind damage to the south near Corpus Christi, flooding in the Houston metro area and parts of southwestern LA. Then flooding up through the Tennessee Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Appalachians as it moved further inland as a post tropical system.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on November 07, 2017, 02:07:20 PM
A little late - 10 PM EST yesterday, Rina was designated.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on January 16, 2018, 12:10:07 PM
Thread revival several storms have been active since Rina. Now we have Berguitta active in the Indian.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on January 16, 2018, 04:35:25 PM
Yup, cyclone Berguitta in the Southwest Indian. So far the Southern Hemisphere has had the following storms:
Tropical Storm Cempaka (Australia but named by Indonesia, not tracked by the JTWC)
Tropical Storm Dahlia (Australia but again named by Indonesia)
Cyclone Ava, category 2 (Southwest Indian)
Cyclone Irving, category 2 (Formed in Australia but quickly crossed into the Southwest Indian)
Tropical Storm Joyce (Australia, somehow managed to survive overland for a long time)

In addition we already had the first storm of the Northwest Pacific (or as I call it the "Typhoon Pacific"), Tropical Storm Bolaven (known in the Philippines as Agaton and never considered a storm by the JTWC). Last year there were fewer category 5 typhoons (only the long-lasting Noru) than category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic (Irma and Maria).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on January 25, 2018, 10:22:38 AM
 :D https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on January 25, 2018, 10:23:45 AM
Yup, cyclone Berguitta in the Southwest Indian. So far the Southern Hemisphere has had the following storms:
Tropical Storm Cempaka (Australia but named by Indonesia, not tracked by the JTWC)
Tropical Storm Dahlia (Australia but again named by Indonesia)
Cyclone Ava, category 2 (Southwest Indian)
Cyclone Irving, category 2 (Formed in Australia but quickly crossed into the Southwest Indian)
Tropical Storm Joyce (Australia, somehow managed to survive overland for a long time)

In addition we already had the first storm of the Northwest Pacific (or as I call it the "Typhoon Pacific"), Tropical Storm Bolaven (known in the Philippines as Agaton and never considered a storm by the JTWC). Last year there were fewer category 5 typhoons (only the long-lasting Noru) than category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic (Irma and Maria).

IMO, Lan is a Cat 5. Looked like one, had a ASCAT pass with Cat 5 Winds...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on January 29, 2018, 02:05:24 PM
And then Cebile decided to peak as the strongest storm so far in 2018 - 135 mph.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on January 29, 2018, 03:04:46 PM
Nice to see another hurricane tracker. I haven't been really active lately, having shifted my focus to running. I created this thread mainly for Atlantic hurricanes, as obviously the audience of this forum would be more interested on them, even though I decided to open this to anything anywhere. However, I have some idiosyncrasies, such as I always estimate wind speeds in a 10 minute lapse as recommended by the WMO, and thus they are about 1.14 times lower than JTWC's 1 minute estimates. For example I consider Cebile to have peaked at 115 mph, which matches Meteo-France advisories.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on January 31, 2018, 11:16:40 AM
Nice to see another hurricane tracker. I haven't been really active lately, having shifted my focus to running. I created this thread mainly for Atlantic hurricanes, as obviously the audience of this forum would be more interested on them, even though I decided to open this to anything anywhere. However, I have some idiosyncrasies, such as I always estimate wind speeds in a 10 minute lapse as recommended by the WMO, and thus they are about 1.14 times lower than JTWC's 1 minute estimates. For example I consider Cebile to have peaked at 115 mph, which matches Meteo-France advisories.
Good to see another one too. I prefer 1-min winds over 10 min, because It’s a lot easier to track those kind of winds.

Also, Cebile is back up to Category 4. Peaked with 140 mph this time.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on February 09, 2018, 10:58:26 AM
TD 02W forms, as well as Cyclone Gita in the SPAC.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on February 12, 2018, 09:42:41 AM
02W decided to became a Tropical Storm, and received the name Sanba. Gita is also nearly a Cat 5 on the Australian Scale...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on February 12, 2018, 11:07:17 AM
Gita could also be the strongest storm to ever have hit Tonga.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on February 13, 2018, 09:36:33 PM
02W decided to became a Tropical Storm, and received the name Sanba. Gita is also nearly a Cat 5 on the Australian Scale...
Category 5 on the AU Scale now. Cat 4 on the SSHWS.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on February 14, 2018, 04:45:51 PM
Notice the Australian scale has no "tropical storm" designation, instead using category 1 tropical cyclone already when a system reaches gale force. I refer to (AU) categories 1 and 2 together as "tropical storm", only changing to "tropical cyclone" once they reach category 3 (i.e. hurricane force). Now I think, the SSHWS doesn't have a "strong tropical storm" category like the rest of the World.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on February 15, 2018, 01:51:44 AM
Notice the Australian scale has no "tropical storm" designation, instead using category 1 tropical cyclone already when a system reaches gale force. I refer to (AU) categories 1 and 2 together as "tropical storm", only changing to "tropical cyclone" once they reach category 3 (i.e. hurricane force). Now I think, the SSHWS doesn't have a "strong tropical storm" category like the rest of the World.
I consider 60 mph to 73 mph as strong TS on my personal modified SSHWS. Only other changes: CAT 5 is 155-176. CAT 6: 177-199. CAT 7: 200+
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on February 16, 2018, 02:11:41 PM
10S forms...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on February 16, 2018, 04:11:23 PM
Still unnamed, ergo still a tropical depression (or "tropical low" as they call them in Oz), not interesting for me. FYI this is tropical low 17U.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on February 17, 2018, 05:51:31 AM
Now named: Tropical storm Kelvin. Add 273.15 and you have TS Celsius. If you then multiply by 1.8 and substract 32, you'll obtain TS Fahrenheit.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on February 23, 2018, 02:55:15 PM
Now named: Tropical storm Kelvin. Add 273.15 and you have TS Celsius. If you then multiply by 1.8 and substract 32, you'll obtain TS Fahrenheit.

And he did the impossible, intensifying to 90 mph over land!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on February 26, 2018, 02:21:12 AM
Now named: Tropical storm Kelvin. Add 273.15 and you have TS Celsius. If you then multiply by 1.8 and substract 32, you'll obtain TS Fahrenheit.

And he did the impossible, intensifying to 90 mph over land!

TS Julia (2016) can relate to that for forming on land.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on February 26, 2018, 03:36:32 PM
Now named: Tropical storm Kelvin. Add 273.15 and you have TS Celsius. If you then multiply by 1.8 and substract 32, you'll obtain TS Fahrenheit.

And he did the impossible, intensifying to 90 mph over land!

TS Julia (2016) can relate to that for forming on land.
Bill (2015) survived as a TD over land for at least 36 hours.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on February 28, 2018, 01:23:16 PM
We could have the strongest storm (by pressure) ever recorded in the Southwest Indian this weekend, and next week. HWRF model predicting a 878!!! millibar storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=94S&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018022812&fh=6 (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=94S&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018022812&fh=6) That’s lower than any storm in 2017! GFS predicts 896 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=94S&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018022812&fh=6 (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=94S&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018022812&fh=6). If this verifies, oh my. Lowest ever was Gafilo with 895.

Edit: If HWRF-P model verifies, it’s the lowest in the S Hem on record, surpassing 2016’s Cyclone Winston with 885.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on February 28, 2018, 05:19:09 PM
Models usually go really crazy. I remember once GFS formed a tropical "anticyclone" that crossed the equator, and then bombed the same cyclone to 871 mbar. In the end Typhoon Tembin (a.k.a. Vinta in the Philippines) only reached category 1.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 03, 2018, 05:01:19 AM
Tropical Storm Dumazile now active. This is the one the HWRF predicted to be a 878 mbar storm (now it predicts a 911 mbar one, less insane).

BTW, this tweet is all wrong:

Tropical cyclones aren't named until they actually have a name and not just a serial number (Captain Obvious). Also, now that is named, Dumazile is not the 11th named storm of the Southern hemisphere, but the 12th, a byproduct of the JTWC missing the very first named storm of the season (Cempaka) and those blind people who don't look further.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on March 05, 2018, 09:39:07 AM
Cat 3 now
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on March 07, 2018, 09:13:24 AM
And then Hola decides I want to rapidly intensify too.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 07, 2018, 12:47:33 PM
It will be an oxymoron when Hola (Spanish for hello) dissipates or goes extratropical :sombrero:.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on March 07, 2018, 03:31:18 PM
It will be an oxymoron when Hola (Spanish for hello) dissipates or goes extratropical :sombrero:.

Thats funny, never knew that. Cat 4 on the AU scale, yet JTWC is taking 50 years recognizing it as a Cat 2 on the SSHWS, still by them, only a minimal Cat 1 with 65 kt (75 mph)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 07, 2018, 04:37:55 PM
Fun fact: in 2015 there was a Cyclone Ola in the same area. In Spanish "Ola" is homophone with "Hola" (the H is always silent except when preceded by a C).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on March 21, 2018, 03:24:03 PM
Marcus... Cat 5.  :)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 21, 2018, 07:00:05 PM
When it formed near the Australian coast I knew (it was already forecast anyway) Marcus would get to strenghten a bit once it moved away, just not to 140 mph (10 min).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on March 31, 2018, 06:51:59 PM
Finally got a weather radio for my birthday. (It's today)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on April 01, 2018, 12:31:34 PM
Finally got a weather radio for my birthday. (It's today)
Well then, happy birthday! I have a feeling you'll enjoy that

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on April 13, 2018, 10:06:34 AM
Will Isis ever die? It keeps regenerating.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on April 13, 2018, 11:59:59 AM
Will Iris ever die? It keeps regenerating.

FTFY.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on April 13, 2018, 05:55:50 PM
The names Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate were all retired from the Atlantic hurricane name list at the WMO meeting on Wednesday. The new names are Harold, Idalia, Margot, and Nigel.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on May 16, 2018, 01:47:22 AM
Welcome to the 2018 Pacific Hurricane Season. 1E dissipated 2 days ago now btw.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 27, 2018, 06:29:30 AM
As I've said many times earlier, I won't recognize subtropical systems, and as such I won't recognize Alberto unless it becomes fully tropical, thus creating a situation like I have in 2007 where I start from Barry (leaving Andrea unused until 2013).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on May 27, 2018, 05:40:58 PM
As I've said many times earlier, I won't recognize subtropical systems, and as such I won't recognize Alberto unless it becomes fully tropical, thus creating a situation like I have in 2007 where I start from Barry (leaving Andrea unused until 2013).

What does "recognizing" it entail?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on May 30, 2018, 02:26:17 PM
As I've said many times earlier, I won't recognize subtropical systems, and as such I won't recognize Alberto unless it becomes fully tropical, thus creating a situation like I have in 2007 where I start from Barry (leaving Andrea unused until 2013).
Alberto is now a TD.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 30, 2018, 03:27:40 PM
Yup, but anyway it should have remained unnamed, as it was not tropical while a storm and not a storm while tropical. Thus I'll be marking Alberto as unused this year, much like Nicole 2004 (and thus jumping from Matthew to Otto in the end) and Andrea 2007 (thus starting with Barry).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on May 30, 2018, 03:33:18 PM
Yup, but anyway it should have remained unnamed, as it was not tropical while a storm and not a storm while tropical. Thus I'll be marking Alberto as unused this year, much like Nicole 2004 (and thus jumping from Matthew to Otto in the end) and Andrea 2007 (thus starting with Barry).

OK, what's that supposed to mean?  It's been a named storm.  Nothing you say or do will change that.  And because it wasn't a major issue, the name will return in 7 years.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on May 30, 2018, 03:59:41 PM
First tropical system to affect Chicagoland since 2012 when we had Isaac and the wind field of Sandy
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 02, 2018, 08:13:29 AM
More "unrecognitions" from me. This time I don't recognize what the JTWC called "tropical storm" 07W back in mid June, simply because it was an extratropical low embedded within a stationary front (as analyzed by Japan).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1 on July 02, 2018, 08:39:45 AM
More "unrecognitions" from me. This time I don't recognize what the JTWC called "tropical storm" 07W back in mid June, simply because it was an extratropical low embedded within a stationary front (as analyzed by Japan).

Does Japan name their storms? I would say that after giving a potential storm a number, deciding not to name it is already a way of "unrecognizing" it.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 07, 2018, 07:36:05 AM
This is a Pacific hurricane, not an Atlantic one. Anyway we don't need a separate thread for Atlantic.
So when Did Hector decide to become a step away from Cat 5?

When Hurricane Hunters investigated it. It may have been category 5 briefly. What is even better, some models take Hector all the way to Japan! But that is still far out (GFS has already given out on that possibility, but the Euro, considered more reliable, still carries that). Anyway, it's rare to see a typhoon with an Eastern Pacific (out to -140) name, but it has happened a handful times (last time in 2014 with typhoon Genevieve).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 17, 2018, 08:40:03 AM
2018 WPAC typhoon season could be one of the most active on record. Soulik, and soon to be Cimaron (which shouldve been retired in 2006) will be the earliest 18th and 19th storms in the basin in recorded history.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 21, 2018, 09:33:08 AM
Lane a major threat to Hawaii. Winds are presently 150 mph. 2 of the models on tropical tidbits calls for more strengthening to 160 mph+.

Interests in HI need to continue, or to start, watching Lane VERY closely. This may be the most significant storm since Iniki.

EDIT: Just shy of Category 5 now. Winds of 155 mph!

EDIT: CAT 5
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on August 21, 2018, 04:29:55 PM
So far it looks like Lane is going to hit Oahu sometime on late Thursday or Friday.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 22, 2018, 07:12:51 AM
Lane now category 5!!! Now that's crazy (but not unseen, the longest-lasting tropical cyclone ever, hurricane/typhoon John of 1994, was also a cat. 5 South of Hawaii).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 22, 2018, 10:49:47 AM
Lane now category 5!!! Now that's crazy (but not unseen, the longest-lasting tropical cyclone ever, hurricane/typhoon John of 1994, was also a cat. 5 South of Hawaii).
Amazing.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on August 22, 2018, 01:47:48 PM
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Lane stays CAT 3 as its turning around Oahu.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on August 23, 2018, 09:02:57 PM
https://www.khon2.com/weather/weather-blog/another-tropical-system-forms-forecast-to-approach-hawaii/1373353323


https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/outdoor-warning-sirens-to-sound-on-oahu-at-4-pm-for-hurricane-lane/1391902390


Here are some updates on Hurricane Lane in Hawaii
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on August 24, 2018, 10:20:02 PM
Lane now down to a cat 1

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 28, 2018, 02:00:32 PM
Lane is now only a minimal tropical depression, and will likely be declared post-tropical in 2 hours. If not 2, then 8.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Jebi in the West Pacific could become the next (fifth) Category 5 of 2018.

Jelawat was, IMO, a Category 5. I rarely see a 150 mph Cat 4 with a pressure of 915 mb.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 28, 2018, 03:08:00 PM
I was waiting for Lane to dissipate, given it was already a depression two days ago.

I should note that average pressure on Western Pacific is lower than on the Atlantic. So, it is perfectly possible to get a 130 mph (10 minute) cat 4 with a pressure of 915 mbar, in fact any category 5 super typhoon is almost guaranteed to have a minimum pressure under 900 mbar (That is, according to the Dvorak technique (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique), Japan almost always underestimates intensity of typhoons). Anyway, I think Hector was a cat 5 for a while.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 29, 2018, 08:34:30 AM
Hector totally was a Cat 5 IMO, in between recon missions. I think Hectors peak was approx. 158 mph
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 30, 2018, 12:24:24 PM
Well then. Not one but TWO cat 5s maybe with us soon.
Norman has winds of 150 mph presently. The NHC do forecast it to reach Category 5 by 8 PM tonight.
Jebi on the other hand IMO is already there. Only 140 mph officially, but they updated the latest on it after their advisory, so the track from the JTWC is when the storm had 125 mph winds, which calls for a 150 mph peak, which I think is VERY underestimated. Jebi is showing unprecedented rapid deepening, might reach 175-180 mph.
I mean, just look at that eye! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#25W (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#25W) Pinhole! I dont know how they got 125 mph from that originally. Looks deserving of 160 IMO.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 30, 2018, 04:27:51 PM
Jebi already a Cat 5. As always the Japanese Meteorological Agency is underestimating its power, saying it has 10 minute sustained winds of only 115 mph as opposed to 140 mph obtained by extrapolation from the 1 minute figure of 160 mph (the conversion factor being about 1.14, but this is approximate and doesn't always occur).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on August 31, 2018, 09:07:20 AM
175 mph. Holy moly. Plus Norman is weakening now.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 02, 2018, 01:34:17 PM
Invest 99L targets the Gulf Coast... poised to become Gordon. 80% chance to form in 5 days.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 03, 2018, 04:22:51 PM
TS Gordon is a thing now, forcast to become a near-hurricane to a cat 1 by Landfall in Mississippi or Alabama in 36 hrs or less.

Florence is staying in open waters and probably won't reach hurricane strength.

Another tropical wave has a 50/50 shot of developing into a storm, would be Helene.

After that, beware the I.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 04, 2018, 07:12:20 AM
Fun fact: Isaac is the only original I name remaining in the lists. All others have been replaced at least once, most of them twice: Isabel => Ida, Ivan => Igor => Ian, Irene => Irma => Idalia, Iris => Ingrid => Imelda, Isidore => Ike => Isaias (this last one is as of yet unused because 2014 didn't have that many storms).

Jebi has now made landfall in Japan.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 04, 2018, 08:36:42 AM
Helene is on the way as well. 80% chance to form in 5 days.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 04, 2018, 09:09:15 AM
Looks like 12-1am is the projected landfall for tonight with Gordon just east of New Orleans as a cat 1
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 04, 2018, 05:33:22 PM
http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-tropical-storm-gordon-20180904-story.html#


There is a report of Gordon heading to Alabama as of the time of the post made by the LA Times.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Bruce on September 04, 2018, 06:33:23 PM
Typhoon Jebi has left a pretty big trail of damage across Honshu, killing at least 6 in Japan

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/04/world/asia/typhoon-jebi-japan-evacuations.html
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 04, 2018, 11:23:06 PM
It sounds like Gordon has made landfall as a 70 mph TS. Also, in all honesty, Isaac should've been retired after 2012.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 05, 2018, 08:33:47 AM
Florence pulled a surprise, intensifying to Category 2 status.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 05, 2018, 12:08:03 PM
Florence pulled a surprise, intensifying to Category 2 4 status.

That's the newest advisory now.

Edit: switched 3 for 4.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 05, 2018, 02:55:40 PM
The remnants of Gordon could hit Chicago towards the weekend based on current tracks, marking the first time in 10 years we've had two tropical systems hit the area. 2008 had Gustav and Ike, and we had Alberto earlier this season.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on September 06, 2018, 12:12:30 PM
The remnants of Gordon could hit Chicago towards the weekend based on current tracks, marking the first time in 10 years we've had two tropical systems hit the area. 2008 had Gustav and Ike, and we had Alberto earlier this season.

Remnants being the operative term, as it appears to be quickly breaking up. We  were scheduled to receive 4-6 inches of rain, but has been dialed back to 1-2 inches.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jp the roadgeek on September 06, 2018, 05:12:34 PM
Hurricane Florence could be an issue by next weekend for many along the Atlantic coast from the Outer Banks up to New England.  One model has it hitting somewhere around Ocean City, MD, while another takes it up across Long Island and into New England.  Either way, those still recovering from Sandy face a possible repeat.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/09/05/hurricane-florence-could-hit-east-coast-next-week-atlantic-storm/1202464002/
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 06, 2018, 11:07:17 PM
Florence temporarily down to a TS again (that was quick), 2 systems have a 70%+ chance of being developed. Hello Helene and Isaac. One is taking the southern track that can spell trouble down the road. Again, beware the I (potentially).

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 07, 2018, 03:36:25 AM
In 2014 there wasn't an I at all (there were so few storms, it stopped just before Isaias which thus is yet to be used for the first time). In both 2015 and 2016 the I (Ida in 2015, Ian in 2016) remained a tropical storm out in the sea. So not all years the I is a threat (in fact most seasons before 1995 didn't reach I, however since then it has been a regular occurrence).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 07, 2018, 11:24:11 AM
PTC 08L has formed
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 07, 2018, 01:07:04 PM
Olivia's cone now has Hawaii in it.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 08, 2018, 08:26:46 PM
https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/residents-and-stores-preparing-for-hurricane-olivia/1426577051


Here is the latest on Hurricane Olivia preparations in Hawaii.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ftballfan on September 08, 2018, 10:45:12 PM
How many early-alphabet names from the 1979-84 lists are still in use?

Some hurricanes I were surprised didn't warrant retiring: Juan (1985 - did get retired after 2003), Gordon (1994), Bonnie (1998), Emily (2005). Three of the four were billion-dollar storms while the fourth killed over 1,000 people
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 09, 2018, 04:19:05 AM
Depend on what "early-alphabet" is. This year up to I all but Gordon (which replaced Gilbert after 1988) were in the original list. In fact list IV (the one used this year) is the list that has seen the least changes since its introduction, as only four names have been retired from the list: Gilbert in 1988, Joan (but not Miriam on the Eastern Pacific) also in 1988, Keith in 2000 and Sandy in 2012. Before 2005 it was list III, which managed to go until 1999 without any names retired. Meanwhile, no iteration of list V has been reused in its entirety, at least one name has been retired every time it has been used.

As for hurricanes that didn't get retired, Gordon wasn't retired because Haiti failed to send a delegate to the WMO, and at the time Mexico wasn't too keen to request name retirement, thus allowing Emily to become the first and only name so far to survive in the list after a category 5 hurricane.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 10, 2018, 08:45:52 AM
Florence rapidly intensifying, Satelite estimates have it as a Category 3, forecasted to peak near Category 5, and then make landfall around Wilmington, NC as a Cat 4. States of Emergencies have been declared for SC, NC, and VA
Mangkhut just passed very close to Guam as a 105 mph Cat 2.
Helene & Isaac are also hurricanes out in the open Atlantic.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ftballfan on September 10, 2018, 09:11:12 AM
Florence has had an odd track history. Until its sharp westward turn a few days ago, it was tracking like most hurricanes in the central Atlantic north of the typical Caribbean track (they generally go north into the open Central Atlantic [a la Helene's projected track]). However, it's still not as odd as Lenny (which went west to east across the Caribbean Sea) or Jeanne (which did a big loop to put itself on a bee line for Florida after heading due north from Hispaniola).

An odd fact about Category 5 hurricanes: All of them have affected land in some way, even after weakening
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 10, 2018, 01:50:16 PM
Cat 4 Now
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 10, 2018, 07:12:13 PM
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38969064/tropical-storm-warning-issued-for-parts-of-the-state-as-olivia-nears


Update Hawaii Hurricane Olivia Watch still at play for Maui and Big Island.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 10, 2018, 07:13:03 PM
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/florence-becomes-major-hurricane-in-atlantic/22996349


Now Maryland has called for state of Emergency for Florence.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1 on September 10, 2018, 07:18:46 PM
Florence might hit Florence, SC. Would this be the most populous city in the United States to be hit by a hurricane with the same name?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: triplemultiplex on September 11, 2018, 03:50:59 PM
Florence is really starting to look like it's going to park itself over the Carolinas after landfall.  That's going to be more significant than how strong it is when it hits land.  Good luck down there this weekend.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Stephane Dumas on September 11, 2018, 04:20:07 PM
I hope the Brunswick nuclear plant along with Duke-Sutton steam plant will withstand hurricane Florence. http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/nuclear-power-plants-at-risk-of-direct-hit-by-hurricane-florence_09112018
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 11, 2018, 08:12:56 PM
https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/what-to-expect-on-lanai-from-tropical-storm-olivia/1435296209 (https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/what-to-expect-on-lanai-from-tropical-storm-olivia/1435296209)


https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/most-state-employees-in-maui-county-granted-administrative-leave-wednesday/1435294163 (https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/most-state-employees-in-maui-county-granted-administrative-leave-wednesday/1435294163)


Maui Offices are going to be closed due to Hurricane Olivia



http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38969064/outermost-bands-from-olivia-starting-to-bring-showers-to-some-islands


The Threat is still at play for Hawaii.

http://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/olivia-continues-weaken-entire-state-under-tropical-storm-warning (http://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/olivia-continues-weaken-entire-state-under-tropical-storm-warning)



Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 11, 2018, 08:19:52 PM
Olivia has winds of 55 mph now.

That violates normal proceedings being either 50 mph or 60 mph because of knots rounding.

Personal feeling: I think Isaac could turn north just outside of the 5 day forcast like some models are saying. If it gets into the gulf, it could become a hurricane again.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: index on September 11, 2018, 11:01:04 PM
Here's something you don't see every day: Contraflow traffic on I-26, I believe, being led by the SCHP.


?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwgr%5E373939313b73706563696669635f73706f7274735f616374696f6e&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fweather.com%2Fsafety%2Fhurricane%2Fnews%2F2018-09-10-south-carolina-preparations-impacts-hurricane-florence
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 12, 2018, 12:20:06 AM
I have a bad feeling this is going to make Matthew look like a mere nuisance.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/matthew-river-flooding-carolina-records

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 12, 2018, 08:32:59 AM
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/olivia-to-blast-hawaii-with-flooding-rain-gusty-winds-and-dangerous-seas-through-wednesday/70006012


Here is an update on olivia for Hawaii


and Florence now Maryland and Virginia are on standby though as they watch the fallout from the Carolinas


https://www.wric.com/weather/category-4-hurricane-florence-shifting-south-before-landfall/1425185218


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/us/hurricane-florence.html


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bs-md-hurricane-florence-wednesday-20180911-story.html



Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 12, 2018, 09:24:32 AM
We're telling our customers to have any pickup and deliveries done with truck carriers to be finished by 6pm Thursday for North and South Carolinas. Might have to extend that into eastern GA.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SP Cook on September 12, 2018, 09:43:24 AM
Dozens of out-of-region and contractor electric trucks on the highway today.  Assume they will hold short somewhere in Piedmont NC and head in. 

WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared.  Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south.  Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today.  Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south. 

For a time last night, turnpike was refusing entry at Princeton, ordering traffic onto Corridor Q, US 460 East (whcih re-enters Virginia for about a mile and a half) then onto the 2 lane mountainous US 219 at Rich Creek, VA, and then I-64 West at Lewisburg.  Which would under ordinary circumstances triple or quadruple travel time to Beckley.  Route is now signed as a "suguested alternate" until noon today.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 10:04:06 AM
WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared.  Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south.  Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today.  Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south. 

The West Virginia Turnpike needs 6 lanes thruout, IMHO.  Very busy highway steadily getting busier.  Yeah, I know it would be very expensive construction, especially the northern part.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: LM117 on September 12, 2018, 10:24:56 AM
WV Turnpike, again, caught unprepared.  Bridge deck work near MM 20 caused hours long back up, as did inadequately staffed toll booths, as lots of people are heading in this direction from the coastal south.  Gov stepped in and ordered temporary emergency work and all lanes on the bridge should be open by noon today.  Also ordered all toll lanes staffed (state does not have the authority to waive tolls), and granted a statewide over-weight permit to any truck hauling relief supplies south. 

The West Virginia Turnpike needs 6 lanes thruout, IMHO.  Very busy highway steadily getting busier.  Yeah, I know it would be very expensive construction, especially the northern part.

I agree. I last drove it in 2013 when I went to my cousins high school graduation in Michigan and noticed heavier traffic than there used to be.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 12, 2018, 10:25:34 AM
Hurricane Warnings May be extended into Southern SC and GA within the hour.

I-26 is contraflowed. A lot of the models aren’t saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall. After replacing its eyewall, Florence is back up to intensifying... and could be all the way to landfall.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: LM117 on September 12, 2018, 10:32:39 AM
I have a bad feeling this is going to make Matthew look like a mere nuisance.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/matthew-river-flooding-carolina-records

What makes it worse is that much of eastern NC still hasnt fully recovered from Matthew. Recovery funds have only recently started being distributed and there has been a LOT of anger towards the NC Emergency Management director, Mike Sprayberry, for the slow response (or lack of). He held a meeting with residents in Wayne County a few months ago and they ripped him a new asshole.

And now comes Florence...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 12, 2018, 11:56:57 AM
I have a bad feeling this is going to make Matthew look like a mere nuisance.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/matthew-river-flooding-carolina-records
That seems to he a pattern recently: Ivan to Katrina, Irene to Sandy, now Matthew to Irma/this.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 12, 2018, 11:58:26 AM
Hurricane Warnings May be extended into Southern SC and GA within the hour.

I-26 is contraflowed. A lot of the models arent saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall. After replacing its eyewall, Florence is back up to intensifying... and could be all the way to landfall.
Right now though, the wind field is expanding and causing the pressure drop, which might be worse news in this case than getting the storm up to 150 mph.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 12, 2018, 02:21:09 PM
When I drove up in March 2017, I stopped in Ridgeland, SC to get some shots of the old NRHP-listed Sinclair gas station, an old school in Tillman, SC, and anything else I found interesting. While at the Sinclair gas station, which is now a local chamber of commerce/museum, I asked the young lady working there how the city survived Matthew. Being part of the "Low Country," I assumed they were as beaten up as Lumberton, NC, but she told me they didn't have it that bad.


Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 04:02:21 PM
A lot of the models arent saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.

Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 12, 2018, 04:13:33 PM
https://abc11.com/weather/hurricane-florence-now-a-category-3-still-dangerous/4219580/


https://www.wyff4.com/article/tracking-hurricane-florence/23006070


Apparently FLorence is now a Category 3 storm according to this update.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 04:22:46 PM
Apparently FLorence is now a Category 3 storm according to this update.

It is now, but it is still about 48 hours from landfall.  NOAA NHC is saying 100 mph at landfall, which is low Cat 2.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on September 12, 2018, 05:52:35 PM
A lot of the models arent saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.

Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.

Possibly.  It also depends on what her pressure is, and what time of day she comes ashore - low tide or high tide.  If we get lucky, then she comes ashore with a higher pressure at low tide.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 12, 2018, 07:25:21 PM
A lot of the models arent saying good things. A ton of catastrophic flooding is going to follow, and we are still looking at a Cat 4 landfall.

Actually NOAA NHC is now saying 100 mph, which is low Cat 2, which would also lessen the storm surge levels.

Possibly.  It also depends on what her pressure is, and what time of day she comes ashore - low tide or high tide.  If we get lucky, then she comes ashore with a higher pressure at low tide.

Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

If Florence were a category 4 hurricane but half its current size, it probably would do less damage overall than a category 2 Florence of the current size.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on September 12, 2018, 07:52:08 PM

Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

If Florence were a category 4 hurricane but half its current size, it probably would do less damage overall than a category 2 Florence of the current size.

I wanted to echo most of this.  Florence has grown larger in storm energy and in areal coverage.  In addition, Florence is estimated to be a cat. 2 when the circulation center makes landfall.  Florence's expanse will be over land for a considerable amount of time before that particular thing happens, probably including the eye wall, the part of the storm with the most intense conditions.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 08:48:15 PM
Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

Where do you get that wind field size data from?  Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds.  Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 12, 2018, 08:54:01 PM
Where do you get that wind field size data from?  Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds.  Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/122354.shtml?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Mapmikey on September 12, 2018, 09:02:22 PM
Over the past few days, what's happened to Florence is that while the actual maximum windspeed is lower, the size of the storm has increased dramatically. Currently, the hurricane-force wind field is 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend nearly 200 miles from the center. That's going to mean more areas get a storm surge, and probably won't really decrease the intensity of that surge; parts of NC are still expecting a surge of greater than 13 feet.

Where do you get that wind field size data from?  Richmond-Petersburg is about 200 miles from the closest projected track, and the NHC graphics show a very low probability of TS force winds.  Local forecasts show a highest wind speed over the next 5 days of 18 mph.

Weather channel on tv (can't find it on their website) said TS winds extend 170 miles out from the center.  NHC puts the cumulative probability of Richmond getting a 39 mph sustained wind at 31% (for comparison the value is 77% for Rocky Mount NC which also has a 22% chance of getting a sustained 58 mph wind).  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/122037.shtml?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 09:02:35 PM
"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)."

"UP TO", as in maximum.  Tropical storms often have irregular wind fields, so the maximum and minimum boundaries can very greatly.

Also that is NOW and not necessarily ~48 hours from now.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: MikeTheActuary on September 12, 2018, 09:05:45 PM
Waffle House has activated its Emergency Operations Center, and Fox News has educated its viewers/readers on FEMA's Waffle House Index: http://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/2018/09/12/hurricane-florence-prompts-waffle-house-to-activate-storm-center.html
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 09:08:05 PM
Weather channel on tv (can't find it on their website) said TS winds extend 170 miles out from the center.  NHC puts the cumulative probability of Richmond getting a 39 mph sustained wind at 31% . 

I'm not sure what the cumulative probability means in a practical sense.  The probabilities for any 24 hour period are in the single digits.  Those are probably predicated on the low probability of the storm taking a significant turn to the north, which is in the realm of possibility.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 12, 2018, 11:02:13 PM
Florence is down to a Cat 2 but wind field is now 80 miles for hurrivane force and 195 for TS force. Honestly this is worse than a cat 4 coming ashore here. NHC is also calling for a 110 mph landfall, I'm a little skeptical of that as the shear won't subside for another 12 hours at least.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 12, 2018, 11:22:28 PM
Florence is down to a Cat 2 but wind field is now 80 miles for hurrivane force and 195 for TS force.

*UP TO* that distance, as I commented about earlier.

Honestly this is worse than a cat 4 coming ashore here. NHC is also calling for a 110 mph landfall, I'm a little skeptical of that as the shear won't subside for another 12 hours at least.

Steadily decreasing in wind speeds.  I bet it will be down to 95 mph high Cat 1 at landfall.  In any event, Cat 2 is no way comparable to Cat 4 which would cause catastrophic wind damage plus a very high storm surge.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 13, 2018, 06:29:59 AM
This is what I mean by ambiguity, at least with the "up to" qualifier.  Per NHC at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018.

"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).  A NOAA buoy located about 80 miles (130 km) south of the center of Florence has recently reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h)."

The forward motion of the storm is given to be 15 mph, so that would add "up to" 15 mph to the sustained winds north of the center of the storm, and subtract "up to" 15 mph from the sustained winds south of the center.  So the first quoted sentence maximums are for the northern quadrant.  The sustained wind speed at that buoy is 22 mph less than hurricane force.

The quoted statement also may include both sustained winds and gusts.  Tropical storm gusts are not to be trifled with as they are not a quick burst of air as in a thunderstorm, but typically have a 5 to 10 minute duration where they build slowly and then decline slowly.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 13, 2018, 05:10:39 PM
https://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/211950-typhoon-ompong-pagasa-forecast-september-13-2018-11pm


http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/39082319/philippines-starts-massive-evacuations-as-huge-typhoon-nears


A typhoon alert has been issued for Philippines for  Typhoon Ompong
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 13, 2018, 06:13:29 PM
https://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/211950-typhoon-ompong-pagasa-forecast-september-13-2018-11pm


http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/39082319/philippines-starts-massive-evacuations-as-huge-typhoon-nears


A typhoon alert has been issued for Philippines for Typhoon Mangkhut

FTFY. Ompong is just a local name, the official name of that category 5 super typhoon, the one assigned to it by the Japanese Meteorological Agency, is Mangkhut (and even then they don't use names in Japan, Mangkhut being known there as simply "Typhoon no. 22").
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: wriddle082 on September 13, 2018, 06:22:22 PM
DirecTV channels 361-1 and 361-2 have been activated for severe weather coverage.  The -1 channel is a mix of Weather Channel, Accuweather, CNN, and a random local station, and the -2 channel is most likely the local station.  So far I have seen Durham WTVD, Greensboro WFMY, Winston-Salem WXII, Myrtle Beach WMBF, and Columbia WLTX and WACH coverage represented.

Have the Eastern NC affiliates temporarily gone off the air?  Makes me wonder why Myrtle Beach is the only affiliate on the coast that Ive seen so far.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ce929wax on September 13, 2018, 08:11:01 PM
Has anyone heard from slorydn?  I know he lives in that area.  To everyone else, please be safe.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 13, 2018, 08:22:17 PM
Wilmington, NC, is in the center of the projected track, and weather.com shows current winds of NNW 38 mph.

Here is their weather.com forecast over the next 24 hours.  I will be watching things and commenting on the actuals.

8:30 PM THU NNW 38 mph
8:45 PM THU NNW 39 mph
9:00 PM THU NNW 39 mph
10:00 PM THU NNW 43 mph
11:00 PM THU N 45 mph
12:00 AM FRI N 49 mph
1:00 AM FRI N 49 mph
2:00 AM FRI N 49 mph
3:00 AM FRI N 51 mph
4:00 AM FRI N 53 mph
5:00 AM FRI N 53 mph
6:00 AM FRI N 47 mph
7:00 AM FRI NNE 49 mph
8:00 AM FRI NNE 56 mph
9:00 AM FRI N 55 mph
10:00 AM FRI NNE 54 mph
11:00 AM FRI ENE 52 mph
12:00 PM FRI E 52 mph
1:00 PM FRI E 52 mph
2:00 PM FRI E 55 mph
3:00 PM FRI ESE 54 mph
4:00 PM FRI ESE 55 mph
5:00 PM FRI ESE 55 mph
6:00 PM FRI ESE 60 mph
7:00 PM FRI ESE 58 mph
8:00 PM FRI ESE 43 mph

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1995hoo on September 13, 2018, 09:02:19 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180914/b848d16c43609075499b490ba74e286d.jpg)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 13, 2018, 09:14:18 PM
TV production videographic blunder seen by thousands of viewers employees may get canned over that.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on September 13, 2018, 11:24:45 PM
Florence down to a Cat 1.

NHC is admitting uncertainty with Isaac as it could strengthen again in about 48 hours, or it could degenerate into an open wave. If it does strengthen, it will likely go west. What is intersting is some model runs (about 20%) have Isaac 10 days out going to the same place the 2012 Isaac made landfall, and with similar strength predicted on said models (tropicaltidbits.com). Note: I don't trust models further than 5 days out but something to keep an eye on.

Lastly: Does anyone have any information on hurricane 12 from 1975 (aka pacific northwest hurricane) or the 2006 subtropical storm up at a similar latitude?

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 13, 2018, 11:42:37 PM
Florence down to a Cat 1.

90 mph.  I predicted that upthread when it was supposedly Cat 4.

Wilmington, NC, is near the ocean, is near the center of the projected track, and weather.com shows current winds of N 51 mph.

Actuals
-------
8:30 PM THU NNW 38 mph
9:45 PM THU NNW 47 mph
10:00 PM THU NNW 47 mph
10:30 PM THU N 48 mph
11:30 PM THU N 51 mph
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 13, 2018, 11:57:48 PM
https://www.khon2.com/weather/weather-blog/drier-weather-to-return-as-remnants-of-olivia-move-away-from-hawaii/1442124218


Update Olivia is now remnants of a storm
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 14, 2018, 12:09:19 AM
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/39082319/evacuation-underway-as-huge-typhoon-nears-philippines-china


Now China is on Typhoon Watch along with Philippines.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 14, 2018, 05:30:06 AM
Per Weather.com at 5:30 AM

Morehead City, NC
5:30 AM FRI ESE 84 mph

Wilmington, NC Hourly Weather
5:30 AM FRI NNW 67 mph
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 14, 2018, 09:20:14 AM
We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 14, 2018, 09:30:02 AM
We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC

Who says?  Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 14, 2018, 10:16:08 AM
I've been looking at NCDOT and SCDOT cameras along I-95, and there are empty spots and occasional cars going by. Florence, SC seems to have the most traffic, and it's moving.

Unless conditions change during the day or the weekend, I have a feeling my trip next week may not be a bust after all.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 14, 2018, 12:00:24 PM
https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman

Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 14, 2018, 12:05:22 PM
https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman

Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.

[Bullshit]Our first priority is always the safety and well-being of our staff [/bullshit]

If that was their first priority, they wouldn't be putting their staff and reporters in dangerous situations in the first place, using the 2nd Amendment as their justification for doing so.  They could've easily located a few days ago.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 14, 2018, 12:19:30 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/09/14/super-typhoon-mangkhut-s-strongest-storm-slam-into-philippines/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c7a6c8cc6f22


Here is an update on Typhoon Mangkut in the Philippines note China has been mentioned to be in the storm's path.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 14, 2018, 12:54:58 PM
https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman
Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.
[Bullshit]Our first priority is always the safety and well-being of our staff [/bullshit]
If that was their first priority, they wouldn't be putting their staff and reporters in dangerous situations in the first place, using the 2nd Amendment as their justification for doing so.  They could've easily located a few days ago.

Says because of rising waters.  I heard earlier that it was 10 feet above MHW.  New Bern is up the Neuse River and there is a funnel effect for waters coming up the bay.

New Bern now has easterly winds of 38 mph per Weather.com.  Now slightly less than TS winds, but the direction would blow waters up the river.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 14, 2018, 01:55:37 PM
Super Typhoon Mangkhut (equivalent to a Category 5) is about to make landfall in Luzon with 165 mph winds, after peaking with 180 mph.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 14, 2018, 03:16:33 PM
Super Typhoon Mangkhut (equivalent to a Category 5) is about to make landfall in Luzon with 165 mph winds, after peaking with 180 mph.

It intensified to 175 mph just prior to making landfall at about 1810 UTC (2:10 pm EDT). This storm is a monster. (I founded the Pacific Typhoon Season group on Facebook, btw. :P)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 14, 2018, 04:52:35 PM
https://wlos.com/news/local/friday-latest-dangerous-storm-surge-along-carolina-coast
https://wlos.com/news/local/hurricane-florence-claims-a-third-life
https://www.wyff4.com/article/upstate-impacts-from-hurricane-florence-ways-to-deal-with-them/23133039
https://www.wyff4.com/article/nc-gov-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-florence-sc-officials-monitor-storm/23037578
https://www.wyff4.com/article/sc-governor-says-there-is-landslide-threat/23040661
Here are the latest for Florence.
 
https://abc11.com/weather/watch-live-tropical-storm-florence-coverage-as-storm-turns-deadly/4229794/
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 14, 2018, 06:54:57 PM
We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC

Who says?  Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.

Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:

NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29").  http://hurricanes.gov
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 14, 2018, 10:31:21 PM
We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC
Who says?  Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.
Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29").  http://hurricanes.gov

Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm.  The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).

I have been tracking the local data for Wilmington, NC on weather.com --

Actuals
8:30 PM THU NNW 38 mph
9:45 PM THU NNW 47 mph
10:00 PM THU NNW 47 mph
10:30 PM THU N 48 mph
11:30 PM THU N 51 mph
12:15 AM FRI NNW 43 mph
1:00 AM FRI NNW 52 mph
3:30 AM FRI NNW 67 mph
4:30 AM FRI NNW 67 mph
5:00 AM FRI NNW 66 mph
6:15 AM FRI NNW 73 mph
7:00 AM FRI NNW 72 mph
7:30 AM FRI N 70 mph
8:00 AM FRI N 79 mph
9:00 AM FRI NNE 66 mph
11:00 AM FRI ENE 64 mph
1:00 PM FRI ESE 56 mph
4:00 PM FRI ESE 55 mph
5:00 PM FRI ESE 54 mph
10:30 PM FRI SE 46 mph

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 14, 2018, 10:45:20 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45517803

Update Philippines is hit by the typhoon.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 14, 2018, 11:37:34 PM
https://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/212040-typhoon-ompong-pagasa-forecast-september-15-2018-8am




Illocos Norte, Philippines has been hit by the typhoon.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 15, 2018, 11:31:31 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45532217
Update 14 people reported killed in the typhoon in the Philippines.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 15, 2018, 09:07:56 PM
Update 12 people killed in Florence




https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/tropical-storm-florence-path-power-outage-flooding-latest-weather-hurricane-rain-2018-09-15/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/tropical-storm-florence-path-power-outage-flooding-latest-weather-hurricane-rain-2018-09-15/)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 15, 2018, 09:09:21 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/world/asia/typhoon-mangkhut-philippines-death-toll.html




Update 16 people dead in Typhoon Mangkhut.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 16, 2018, 01:59:34 PM
https://news.sky.com/story/typhoon-mangkhut-leaves-28-dead-in-trail-of-destruction-across-philippines-11499452

https://news.sky.com/story/two-killed-and-millions-evacuated-as-typhoon-mangkhut-lashes-hong-kong-and-china-11499930

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45539120

As of September 16th there are a reported 64 deaths in the Philippines and 2 people reported dead in China due to Typhoon Mangkhut aka Ompong
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 16, 2018, 02:12:03 PM
Update 14 deaths are reported due to Florence


https://abc11.com/weather/watch-live-florence-flooding-is-most-dangerous-right-now-governor-says/4229794/


http://www.fox46charlotte.com/hurricane-florence/florence-claims-14th-victim-as-truck-loses-control-on-flooded-road-in-south-carolina-1


https://abcnews.go.com/US/major-river-flooding-threat-posed-florence-heavy-rain/story?id=57857204


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2018/09/16/florence-several-deaths-reported-as-storm-swamps-carolinas/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.08d3eaf570dc


http://www.live5news.com/story/39099695/troopers-one-killed-in-accident-on-flooded-georgetown-co-road


http://www.live5news.com/story/39098500/two-dead-after-being-transported-to-hospital-from-shelter
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 16, 2018, 02:23:18 PM
https://abc11.com/weather/video-news-team-takes-shelter-during-tornado-warning/4257245/


https://abc13.com/weather/video-news-team-takes-shelter-during-tornado-warning/4257245/


https://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/local/article218498365.html


Update a TV Station WWAY-TV Crew had to take precautions due to a TOrnado hitting the same area that Hurricane Florence hit.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 16, 2018, 05:00:21 PM
Well, there goes that road trip. I'm going to have to give myself another week or two.

BTW, here's a dated shot of I-95 at Exit 20 in Lumbeton:


https://tims.ncdot.gov/tims/cameras/viewimage.ashx?id=I95NB_NC211LumbertonMM20.jpg

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 17, 2018, 08:05:04 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45546795


Here is the fallout of Typhoon Mangkhut in the Philippines.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 17, 2018, 09:45:04 AM
We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC
Who says?  Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.
Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29").  http://hurricanes.gov

Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm.  The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).

If you mean the Weather Channel, yeah I'd hype up the storm for ratings as well cause that's what TWC turned into. NWS and NHC tuned the track and strength as needed when new data came in and got the message out to get people out of the way of danger. They gave North Carolina a week's worth of lead time before landfall to prepare and evacuate. I say that's a job well done for the NHC and NWS local offices
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 17, 2018, 10:30:59 AM
Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29").  http://hurricanes.gov
Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm.  The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).
If you mean the Weather Channel, yeah I'd hype up the storm for ratings as well cause that's what TWC turned into. NWS and NHC tuned the track and strength as needed when new data came in and got the message out to get people out of the way of danger. They gave North Carolina a week's worth of lead time before landfall to prepare and evacuate. I say that's a job well done for the NHC and NWS local offices

NHC meaning National Hurricane Center which is part of NOAA which is National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which is part of US Dept of Commerce.

You creatively snipped the list of Wilmington local data that I compiled in realtime.  They reported 72 mph which is a lot lower than 90 mph and is not even hurricane strength.  Only 2 hours did it even get above the 60s.

Sorry, but scaring the whole middle Atlantic area with Fake Forecasts of a high Cat 4 hitting N.C. is not a responsible way to alert the population to take measures.  It is very irresponsible and is driven by scare politicization.  I live 120 miles from the Atlantic but I know how nasty things can get even here from when a storm comes ashore in N.C., and I don't need or appreciate this tommyrot.  The National Weather Service actually had a forecast several days before landfall that Richmond on Thursday "hurricane conditions possible", that would be 74+ mph sustained winds.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 17, 2018, 12:50:36 PM
Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29").  http://hurricanes.gov
Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm.  The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).
If you mean the Weather Channel, yeah I'd hype up the storm for ratings as well cause that's what TWC turned into. NWS and NHC tuned the track and strength as needed when new data came in and got the message out to get people out of the way of danger. They gave North Carolina a week's worth of lead time before landfall to prepare and evacuate. I say that's a job well done for the NHC and NWS local offices

NHC meaning National Hurricane Center which is part of NOAA which is National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which is part of US Dept of Commerce. Yeah I know the structure, not sure why you listed them out

You creatively snipped the list of Wilmington local data that I compiled in realtime.  They reported 72 mph which is a lot lower than 90 mph and is not even hurricane strength.  Only 2 hours did it even get above the 60s. Well yeah, I didn't want the quote to take up half an internet page

Sorry, but scaring the whole middle Atlantic area with Fake Forecasts of a high Cat 4 hitting N.C. is not a responsible way to alert the population to take measures.  It is very irresponsible and is driven by scare politicization.  I live 120 miles from the Atlantic but I know how nasty things can get even here from when a storm comes ashore in N.C., and I don't need or appreciate this tommyrot.  The National Weather Service actually had a forecast several days before landfall that Richmond on Thursday "hurricane conditions possible", that would be 74+ mph sustained winds.
That's why it's called the Cone of Uncertainty and that they always put in the message "Monitor latest forecasts for track and strength changes". They make the cone that big based on model plots and the size of the hurricane at the time of the advisory to show how large of an area it could affect. So yes, early on it had a possible landfall between Richmond and the SC/GA border. But as the week went on, it shrunk the cone as accuracy improved. Would you rather give people only a couple days heads up to evacuate or at least a week to least have people take notice that there could be a landfall and begin to make a plan of action and monitor the latest track? That's not fear mongering, that's just getting the message out. I believe VA was cleared out of the landfall cone by late Tuesday/early Wed and that many of the supplies gathered in case Florence went north got stockpiled and now will be used to help with the Carolinas

Luckily we live in a time where the technology has helped the accuracy of tracking hurricanes improve each year  :nod:

Back on terms of tropical weather, Joyce is still chilling out in the Atlantic by the Azores and is expected to die out in the open waters. The remnants of Isaac continue to be monitored for possible redevelopment in the Caribbean 
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 17, 2018, 01:08:31 PM
That's why it's called the Cone of Uncertainty and that they always put in the message "Monitor latest forecasts for track and strength changes". They make the cone that big based on model plots and the size of the hurricane at the time of the advisory to show how large of an area it could affect. So yes, early on it had a possible landfall between Richmond and the SC/GA border. But as the week went on, it shrunk the cone as accuracy improved. Would you rather give people only a couple days heads up to evacuate or at least a week to least have people take notice that there could be a landfall and begin to make a plan of action and monitor the latest track? That's not fear mongering, that's just getting the message out.

I wasn't discussing the size of the cone, I was discussing the intensity.  A storm that is barely Cat 1 will have vastly lower effects in wind damage and storm surge, as compared to a high Cat 4.  Given the extreme rarity of any Cat 4 storm making landfall in N.C., yes it was fear mongering, pure and simple, any way you slice it.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 17, 2018, 01:33:51 PM
Says satellite radar from this morning, Wrightsville Beach NC is just south of Wilmington. Via NHC Twitter:
NEW: #Hurricane #Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina at 7:15 AM EDT (1115 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 mb (28.29").  http://hurricanes.gov
Bad data from folks who want to hype and exaggerate the strength of the storm.  The same ones who said several days ago that it would hitting the NC coast with 150 mph winds (high Cat 4).
If you mean the Weather Channel, yeah I'd hype up the storm for ratings as well cause that's what TWC turned into. NWS and NHC tuned the track and strength as needed when new data came in and got the message out to get people out of the way of danger. They gave North Carolina a week's worth of lead time before landfall to prepare and evacuate. I say that's a job well done for the NHC and NWS local offices

NHC meaning National Hurricane Center which is part of NOAA which is National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which is part of US Dept of Commerce.

You creatively snipped the list of Wilmington local data that I compiled in realtime.  They reported 72 mph which is a lot lower than 90 mph and is not even hurricane strength.  Only 2 hours did it even get above the 60s.

Sorry, but scaring the whole middle Atlantic area with Fake Forecasts of a high Cat 4 hitting N.C. is not a responsible way to alert the population to take measures.  It is very irresponsible and is driven by scare politicization.  I live 120 miles from the Atlantic but I know how nasty things can get even here from when a storm comes ashore in N.C., and I don't need or appreciate this tommyrot.  The National Weather Service actually had a forecast several days before landfall that Richmond on Thursday "hurricane conditions possible", that would be 74+ mph sustained winds.

Key word there is "possible". For what it's worth, the NHC never forecasted any landfall above 140 mph. But that's irrelevant. What is relevant is the fact that our weather forecasting technology is not perfect. If you had actually read the forecast that far in advance, it likely said something to the effect of "It is too soon to know the exact impacts, but prepare for the worst" or "the intensity forecast is uncertain at this point". That's not a "fake forecast", that's responsible warning. ET21 is right on point here. Last year, Harvey made landfall in Texas as a Category 4, which wasn't expected to happen until it actually did. The NHC wants people to prepare for the worst -- which is proper. If this storm had changed direction and hit SC instead (which could easily have happened), wouldn't you want them to be prepared and evacuated if necessary? This storm had the potential to be worse than Hugo for South Carolina -- and anyone who remembers that isn't likely to want to go through it again.

Sure, there was some hype for this storm, but absolutely none of that comes from the NHC. Anything to that effect is from news outlets and tabloids looking for clicks and ratings, which is why I wouldn't trust them. I would trust the NHC and NWS over all other forecast outlets.

Also, I wouldn't tell a North Carolinian right now that this storm was overhyped. This storm has already broken the tropical cyclone rainfall record for North Carolina, and several rivers are experiencing catastrophic flood crests, some at record levels. Places have seen more than thirty inches of rain. Dams are failing because of the amount of water. I-40 and I-95 are both shut down, and Wilmington has essentially been cut off from the rest of the world. Nearly 20 people have died. This storm has been worse than Floyd or Matthew, and it might well go down as North Carolina's worst tropical cyclone ever. Oh, and Wilmington didn't get the maximum winds because the storm didn't directly hit Wilmington; it hit Wrightsville Beach.

Who cares what part of the government the NHC is in? If you ask me, just because it's part of the government doesn't make them any less reliable; in fact, it makes them more reliable, since the government isn't trying to get ratings and clicks like other private forecasting agencies. And insulting the NHC and local NWS offices by calling their forecasts "fake" is, IMO, incredibly rude to the forecasters down there who have spent tireless hours working to help the American people. They did the absolute best they could with what they had at the time, and I appreciate their work.

That's why it's called the Cone of Uncertainty and that they always put in the message "Monitor latest forecasts for track and strength changes". They make the cone that big based on model plots and the size of the hurricane at the time of the advisory to show how large of an area it could affect. So yes, early on it had a possible landfall between Richmond and the SC/GA border. But as the week went on, it shrunk the cone as accuracy improved. Would you rather give people only a couple days heads up to evacuate or at least a week to least have people take notice that there could be a landfall and begin to make a plan of action and monitor the latest track? That's not fear mongering, that's just getting the message out.

I wasn't discussing the size of the cone, I was discussing the intensity.  A storm that is barely Cat 1 will have vastly lower effects in wind damage and storm surge, as compared to a high Cat 4.  Given the extreme rarity of any Cat 4 storm making landfall in N.C., yes it was fear mongering, pure and simple, any way you slice it.

Nope. Florence was far worse than your average Category 1, because of the large size of the storm and wind field. That means more places experiencing hurricane force winds and rain, but more importantly, it means a larger storm surge. If Florence had been a high-end Category 4, it would almost certainly have been a smaller storm. The winds would have been more destructive near the point of landfall, but areas farther from that point would see much less impact. Remember Sandy? That was "only" a cat 1-equivalent hurricane at landfall, but look what it did.

It's worth noting that the Saffir-Simpson scale only measures winds, which isn't exactly the most helpful indicator of a storm's damage. Winds are not typically the cause of most of the damage; the vast majority of hurricane damage is due to flooding, whether it be storm surge or rainfall. Again, they were preparing people for the worst here. This was not fear mongering; the NHC forecasts were what they felt most confident in at the time.

Also, if you read the forecast discussions, you'll notice the NHC did not play up the forecast intensity of the storm at landfall, as the intensity part of the forecast was much less certain. They focused on the two highest-probability events: storm surge and inland flooding, both of which verified.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 17, 2018, 04:32:22 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/world/asia/typhoon-mangkhut-philippines-china.html

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/17/asia/typhoon-mangkhut-china-hong-kong-intl/index.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/09/photos-the-aftermath-of-super-typhoon-mangkhut/570490/


Update on Typhoon Mangkhut as rescues are taking place in China and Philippines.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: plain on September 17, 2018, 07:26:43 PM
Everyone in the Richmond metro please check in when you get a chance (Tornado outbreak)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 17, 2018, 08:36:59 PM
Everyone in the Richmond metro please check in when you get a chance (Tornado outbreak)

I'm fine .. still awaiting more detailed damage reports...

https://www.richmond.com/weather/pm-weather-update-tornado-watch-and-flash-flood-watch-canceled/article_f89760c4-e9d9-5492-9059-5a800b09d6ed.html
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Takumi on September 17, 2018, 08:39:52 PM
Im in the Tri-Cities. Nothing happened here other than a car hitting a telephone pole.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 18, 2018, 09:45:23 AM
Other than two tornadoes coming within about a mile of my house, I'm fine. Apparently there were four confirmed tornadoes in Chesterfield County alone, including the particularly destructive one near Hull Street Road and Genito Road that killed one person and injured another (that tornado was probably the biggest/widest one I've ever seen around here).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 18, 2018, 10:11:21 AM
Other than two tornadoes coming within about a mile of my house, I'm fine. Apparently there were four confirmed tornadoes in Chesterfield County alone, including the particularly destructive one near Hull Street Road and Genito Road that killed one person and injured another (that tornado was probably the biggest/widest one I've ever seen around here).

I saw a video on one news site of the one that was in the process of destroying the warehouse at Speeks Drive near Hull Street Road, and it definitely was a tornado.   I just now looked at an article on the Richmond Slimes-Dispatch website, and it says that there were 19 tornado warnings issued yesterday but other than the one tornado they don't specifically mention another touching down, although supposedly other funnels were seen.  Reports of big trees down in some places, and up to 11,000 customers without electric power yesterday.  Bad thunderstorm activity, it happens from time to time, and I don't know that it had anything to do with TS Florence.  Very heavy rains in places, Stratford Hills area got at least 3.5 inches yesterday.  The drainage swale next to my lot is normally dry and at the peak it was a roaring brook.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 18, 2018, 11:48:38 AM
Was part of the remnants of Florence for sure. Some of the videos coming out of VA were intense!  :wow:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 18, 2018, 12:32:07 PM
Florence preliminary damages at 17 billion - 11th highest on record, behind Hurricane Rita of 2005.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 18, 2018, 01:23:30 PM
Was part of the remnants of Florence for sure. Some of the videos coming out of VA were intense!  :wow:

How would we conclude that when the TD center was in Massachusetts?  I've seen weather like that before in central VA when there was no TS activity within a thousand miles.

Like the microburst that knocked down a number of big trees (as in 70+ feet tall) in my part of the city in July 2016, one missed my car by a few feet and another knocked down the power poles and lines behind my house.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: plain on September 18, 2018, 01:34:05 PM
A viewer posted on one of the stations' fb page a picture of 2 tornadoes going at once, looks like the pic was taken from one of the high rises downtown. Pretty scary stuff.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 18, 2018, 01:35:16 PM
Was part of the remnants of Florence for sure. Some of the videos coming out of VA were intense!  :wow:

How would we conclude that when the TD center was in Massachusetts?  I've seen weather like that before in central VA when there was no TS activity within a thousand miles.

There's no center now.  Basically it's just a low pressure system associated with Florence.  Here in NJ/Philly we're getting the storm today.

A viewer posted on one of the stations' fb page a picture of 2 tornadoes going at once, looks like the pic was taken from one of the high rises downtown. Pretty scary stuff.

I'd like to see that...and also which movie it came from! ;-)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 18, 2018, 03:43:15 PM
The rainfall yesterday was associated with the remnants of the main feeder band of Florence, which was at the time moving across WV and western VA. It didn't become a post-tropical cyclone until the 2100 UTC advisory; it was officially still a tropical depression at 1500 UTC. That band now exists as a trough trailing from the elongated low pressure center which is currently sprawled out across Massachusetts.

So far two of the four tornadoes the county mentioned on their "alert" page have been confirmed - an EF2 (the Speeks Drive tornado) and an EF1 that affected the Hampton Park neighborhood in southwestern Chesterfield County. The two funnel clouds/possible tornadoes that passed near Bon Air are still being surveyed.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on September 18, 2018, 04:04:23 PM
Was part of the remnants of Florence for sure. Some of the videos coming out of VA were intense!  :wow:

How would we conclude that when the TD center was in Massachusetts?  I've seen weather like that before in central VA when there was no TS activity within a thousand miles.

The remnants of Florence were over VA yesterday when the tornadoes occurred as a remnant low pressure and associated warm front.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa_archive.php?month=09&day=17&year=2018&format=gif&lang=english&cycle=12&reset=no (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa_archive.php?month=09&day=17&year=2018&format=gif&lang=english&cycle=12&reset=no)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 18, 2018, 04:52:04 PM
Looks like there was also an EF0 tornado in Powhatan County, an EF1 tornado near Bon Air, and an additional possible tornado touchdown site an EF1 tornado (https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=AKQ&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1) in Hanover County. There was an EF0 tornado in Mecklenburg County, as well.

Richmond Slimes-Dispatch website

...ehh...well, like them or hate them that's where my info is currently coming from until Wakefield issues their public information statement when all the surveys are done.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: slorydn1 on September 19, 2018, 07:20:03 AM
Has anyone heard from slorydn?  I know he lives in that area.  To everyone else, please be safe.

All good here. I got power back around 10am Monday morning. I spent from Thursday around lunch time until Saturday night locked down in our EOC, went home Sat and Sun nights to no power. At least my water is heated by propane so I had hot showers  :)


Spent the last two days cleaning up limbs and leaves and cutting back some trees that had fallen close to the house, things of that nature.


Food and gas is a little hard to come by but its getting better everyday.


There are still areas of my county that are inaccessible due to river flooding, and I am not sure when those areas will be open again. If Matthew was any indication it could be the middle of next week before those areas are dry enough for people to begin cleaning up.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 19, 2018, 09:11:44 AM
NWS Wakefield has issued their summary (https://www.weather.gov/akq/Sep172018_Tornadoes) of yesterday's tornado outbreak (which, yes, was related to the remnants of Florence), including details on all six confirmed tornadoes in their county warning area. It looks like they're still populating it since a lot of the graphics are currently missing.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 19, 2018, 03:17:32 PM
We know the Carolinas are going to get plenty of federal aid after Florence, and both DOTs are going to use it to rebuild their roads and railway lines. And those of us familiar enough with I-95 know about the remaining low bridge zone from Exit 65 in Godwin to Exit 75 north of Dunn. So my question for everybody here is; Should NCDOT raise I-95 above the roads that it currently runs under?

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 19, 2018, 04:15:30 PM
We know the Carolinas are going to get plenty of federal aid after Florence, and both DOTs are going to use it to rebuild their roads and railway lines. And those of us familiar enough with I-95 know about the remaining low bridge zone from Exit 65 in Godwin to Exit 75 north of Dunn. So my question for everybody here is; Should NCDOT raise I-95 above the roads that it currently runs under?

Have NCDOT conduct an engineering study and see what would be involved to raise it above the flood levels of the current as well as in Oct. 2016 when this section was flooded.  How much fill, how much bridgework, etc., calculate the cost.  Then decide the cost effectiveness, may be affordable, maybe not.

On another note, I took my weekly walk across the Potterfield Bridge across the James River in Richmond.  Roiling, boiling waters over the rapids today, very rapid currents, as a result of the very heavy rains west of here.

https://jamesriverpark.org/project/tyler-potterfield-memorial-bridge/

The river is above flood stage but the forecast is that it has peaked and will be declining --
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2

Riverside Drive is fully open in the stretch between the Huguenot Bridge and Stratford Hills.  I have not been on other sections today.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 19, 2018, 04:27:29 PM
Two additional EF0 tornadoes were confirmed in the City of Richmond on Monday, bringing the total number to 8.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 19, 2018, 04:37:32 PM
We know the Carolinas are going to get plenty of federal aid after Florence, and both DOTs are going to use it to rebuild their roads and railway lines. And those of us familiar enough with I-95 know about the remaining low bridge zone from Exit 65 in Godwin to Exit 75 north of Dunn. So my question for everybody here is; Should NCDOT raise I-95 above the roads that it currently runs under?

Have NCDOT conduct an engineering study and see what would be involved to raise it above the flood levels of the current as well as in Oct. 2016 when this section was flooded.  How much fill, how much bridgework, etc., calculate the cost.  Then decide the cost effectiveness, may be affordable, maybe not.
Okay, but even if they decide against it, you have to admit they can't leave that 14'2" trucker's obstacle course this way forever.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 19, 2018, 04:37:53 PM
Two additional EF0 tornadoes were confirmed in the City of Richmond on Monday, bringing the total number to 8.

The NWS site still lists 6 so apparently it needs to be updated.  Looks like only one was in the City of Richmond, in the metro area there was one in Hanover County, one in Powhatan County, two in Chesterfield County.  It lists one in Meckenburg County but that is 70+ miles from Richmond.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 19, 2018, 04:38:39 PM
Two additional EF0 tornadoes were confirmed in the City of Richmond on Monday, bringing the total number to 8.

The NWS site still lists 6 so apparently it needs to be updated.  Looks like only one was in the City of Richmond, in the metro area there was one in Hanover County, one in Powhatan County, two in Chesterfield County.  It lists one in Meckenburg County but that is 70+ miles from Richmond.

Yeah, they haven't been added to the main summary page yet. One was in Westover Hills (briefly), the other was in Ginter Park.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=AKQ&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: plain on September 19, 2018, 05:53:10 PM
8 tornadoes, all in Central Virginia except the Mecklenburg one... that's crazy!

One of my friends in Ginter Park said there was damage in the neighborhood but I don't think he realized it was an actual tornado at the time. I live in Church Hill so I was unaffected by them. Still was some pretty strong winds here though.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on September 19, 2018, 09:01:53 PM
The EF-1 "Tornado - Richmond (city) to Tuckahoe" came within 3 miles of my house in Stratford Hills, but I never was aware of it.  That afternoon at my house there were several periods of very heavy rainfall but very little winds.

I'm not sure if I was there at home "3:32 to 3:42 PM", but I went to the county library in Bon Air somewhere around then and they had a sign on the door saying that it was closed due to a tornado warning, and that was the first time I was aware of any tornado events in the area.  I immediately went home to monitor things from there, and followed things on WRIC TV's website.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 20, 2018, 02:02:52 PM
Florence death toll rises to 40.  :no:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 20, 2018, 02:40:28 PM
We'll say farewell to Florence, the last of the original F names from 1979. All others have changed at least once, one of them twice: Frederic => Fabian => Fred, Frances => Fiona (was going to be removed, got retired anyway), Floyd => Franklin, Felix => Fernand, Fran => Fay. Isaac will remain as the last original I name, as it didn't cause much damage.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on September 20, 2018, 02:55:21 PM
We know the Carolinas are going to get plenty of federal aid after Florence, and both DOTs are going to use it to rebuild their roads and railway lines. And those of us familiar enough with I-95 know about the remaining low bridge zone from Exit 65 in Godwin to Exit 75 north of Dunn. So my question for everybody here is; Should NCDOT raise I-95 above the roads that it currently runs under?

Have NCDOT conduct an engineering study and see what would be involved to raise it above the flood levels of the current as well as in Oct. 2016 when this section was flooded.  How much fill, how much bridgework, etc., calculate the cost.  Then decide the cost effectiveness, may be affordable, maybe not.
Okay, but even if they decide against it, you have to admit they can't leave that 14'2" trucker's obstacle course this way forever.



Truckers maximum is 13' 6", so there's no obstacle except for permit loads, which would be instructed the route to take as part of their permit.

It should be raised when the bridge needs work, but it's nothing that is preventing the everyday truck from using the highway now.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on September 22, 2018, 06:47:21 PM
Another report from the Carolinas:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hurricane-florence-has-gone-but-challenges-for-the-carolinas-have-just-begun/ar-AAAtx3H?ocid=spartandhp#image=AAAtx3H_1|4 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hurricane-florence-has-gone-but-challenges-for-the-carolinas-have-just-begun/ar-AAAtx3H?ocid=spartandhp#image=AAAtx3H_1|4)


I just thought I'd throw it in.


Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 01, 2018, 03:51:57 PM
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/typhoon-trami-japan-cancelled-flights-trains-tokyo-flooding-miyazaki-kyushu-2018-10-01/

Update a typhoon has hit Japan.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 01, 2018, 05:41:31 PM
Just 'a typhoon'? That typhoon has (or had, as it has become extratropical or 'post-tropical' as the NHC likes to say) a name: Trami. However in the Philippines they somehow don't recognize these names and instead use their own scheme, under which Trami was known as Paeng.

We have now reached the end of the Hawaiian list 36 years after it was established with hurricane Walaka. The next name to be used in the so-called Central Pacific is Akoni, which was the inaugural name in 1982.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 01, 2018, 09:32:08 PM
Walaka is now a Cat 5. The 2nd or 3rd in tue Central Pacific this year and still poised to strengthen.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 02, 2018, 09:52:33 AM
Walaka is now a Cat 5. The 2nd or 3rd in tue Central Pacific this year and still poised to strengthen.

LG-TP260
And Kong-Rey at the same time in the WPAC!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 02, 2018, 01:47:23 PM
Just 'a typhoon'? That typhoon has (or had, as it has become extratropical or 'post-tropical' as the NHC likes to say) a name: Trami. However in the Philippines they somehow don't recognize these names and instead use their own scheme, under which Trami was known as Paeng.

We have now reached the end of the Hawaiian list 36 years after it was established with hurricane Walaka. The next name to be used in the so-called Central Pacific is Akoni, which was the inaugural name in 1982.

JMA doesn't use typhoon names for local warnings, just their numbers (in Japan, Trami was just "Typhoon #24" or "Typhoon 1824"). They only started naming them for international warnings in 2000 when they took over that responsibility from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since the JTWC isn't actually the official RSMC for the basin and the WMO Typhoon Committee decided that only they should assign the international names.

I personally cannot stand PAGASA's policy of naming storms in their "area of responsibility" (because it can be confusing...and honestly I can't stand a lot of things PAGASA does because they don't do a good job of informing people about pretty much anything), but they've done it since 1963, so it's whatever, I guess. PAGASA does recognize the international names, though, and they do use them in their warnings.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 04, 2018, 09:36:25 AM
Walaka is now a Cat 5. The 2nd or 3rd in tue Central Pacific this year and still poised to strengthen.

LG-TP260
And Kong-Rey at the same time in the WPAC!
1st time 2 systems have been at Category 5 strength at the same time since 1998, when Cyclones Susan and Ron were both Cat 5s.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 07, 2018, 08:01:55 PM
Michael has formed, and it is already 2 days ahead of schedule in strength for what the models predicted it would be. Current prediction from NHC at 5 on EDT was a Cat 2 hurricane. I don't think that is enough given the rapid uptick and more favorable environment. Currently I would call for a 125 mph Cat 3.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 07, 2018, 09:39:44 PM
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 07, 2018, 09:40:50 PM
The 2018 EPAC hurricane season is now the 2nd most active on record beating 2015.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 07, 2018, 11:20:31 PM
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on October 07, 2018, 11:32:49 PM
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: kevinb1994 on October 07, 2018, 11:43:08 PM
Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 08, 2018, 12:37:07 AM


Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

Lets add Cat 3s in October or November: Otto (November), Ophelia.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 08, 2018, 12:39:18 AM
I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on October 08, 2018, 12:53:46 AM
74 mph is the minimum wind speed to be dubbed a hurricane.

The Weather Channel is citing sources saying that Michael will be around 100mph when it makes landfall near Apalachicola, FL.  So that would be a category 2 storm.  They were saying this morning (Sunday) that it would be a category 1, but more recent forecasts are anticipating further strengthening.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 08, 2018, 01:08:40 AM
I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

Why do you always hope for the worst?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 08, 2018, 04:04:33 AM


I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

Why do you always hope for the worst?

It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.

Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.

Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).

Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 08, 2018, 06:36:54 AM
Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: formulanone on October 08, 2018, 07:10:51 AM
Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.

Beltway, I think you're reading into things and then changing the reason for your argument isn't necessary. Yes, hurricanes suck and blow and create havoc, disruption, and loss of life.

(And as a former Floridian, I've been through many more swirly-gigs than that.)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 08, 2018, 07:28:11 AM
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
Beltway, I think you're reading into things and then changing the reason for your argument isn't necessary. Yes, hurricanes suck and blow and create havoc, disruption, and loss of life.
(And as a former Floridian, I've been through many more swirly-gigs than that.)

That is where I grew up and experienced the two hurricanes.  I was young and there were probably a few tropical storms that I was not aware of.  The three tropical storms above were in Virginia and we are very much in the path of potential damage from these storms.  That tally doesn't include severe flooding in Richmond and Alexandria caused by tropical storm remnants in the western part of the state.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on October 08, 2018, 07:44:17 AM


Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 08, 2018, 08:02:47 AM
Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.
What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.
Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.

I think that he was technically referring to the fact that it was no longer a tropical storm, that as it moved north that it had transitioned to being an extra tropical cyclone.  That is true and they get their heat from substantially different processes, however the effect on the ground is about the same for either -- bad.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: kalvado on October 08, 2018, 08:16:03 AM


Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy made landfall as an extratropical system.
Billions of damage have little to do with the structure of the storm and more to the trend of building into risky areas, as far as I understand.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 08, 2018, 11:58:40 AM




Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy made landfall as an extratropical system.
Billions of damage have little to do with the structure of the storm and more to the trend of building into risky areas, as far as I understand.

I may have misinfered about what was being said here, I thought it was about the strength of the storm, not the damage. If it is damage, than of course Sandy would be the king in this month.

 About the tropical/extratropical landfall: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al18/al182012.update.10292255.shtml?  That is my source. You are right though about the 80 mph winds at landfall.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 08, 2018, 01:18:34 PM
Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.




Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.


This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 08, 2018, 01:24:53 PM


Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy wasn’t even tropical anymore when it made landfall.

And Yes, Sandy formed in the carribean and made landfall on not only Cuba and the US, but Jamaica as well.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 08, 2018, 03:55:53 PM
Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.
This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.

There was no personal attack meant or tendered.  Let's just say that it is a sensitive subject given the number of such storms that I have suffered thru, including severe after effects of others that didn't come thru my area.  I forgot to mention Gaston of 2004, almost no winds when it got here but dumped catastrophic amounts of rain that caused severe flooding.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 08, 2018, 04:52:23 PM
Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.
This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.

There was no personal attack meant or tendered.  Let's just say that it is a sensitive subject given the number of such storms that I have suffered thru, including severe after effects of others that didn't come thru my area.  I forgot to mention Gaston of 2004, almost no winds when it got here but dumped catastrophic amounts of rain that caused severe flooding.
Thank you for clarifying. To all who have had to deal with sever weatjer events, I'm sorry you've had to go through with that experience.

Keep Michael victims and future victims in your prayers (if you are religious).

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 08, 2018, 08:12:12 PM
https://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/10/gov_kay_ivey_declares_state_of.html


Update Alabama has declared a state of Emergency for Hurricane Michael.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alps on October 09, 2018, 11:22:51 PM
I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

Why do you always hope for the worst?
Why do you always start arguments in EVERY THREAD YOU ARE IN?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 09, 2018, 11:41:46 PM
I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.
Why do you always hope for the worst?
Why do you always start arguments in EVERY THREAD YOU ARE IN?

I most certainly don't.

Why did you post "cracks" about me "marrying Lansford" several years ago when I was posting under the "soft anonymity" of only the "Beltway" moniker? 

Why did you "criticise" me for "saying that the world was created six thousand years ago" when I was posting in favor of the abiotic oil theory several years ago?  I didn't suggest that at all, just that there may be natural processes deep within the Earth that produce oil.

Stuff it, Steve.  You said those things and others under the color of being a moderator.  Frankly your moderation style is rather immature at times.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 10, 2018, 02:45:02 AM
Catagory 4 is what Michael is now. Also Leslie is a hurricane again.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 10, 2018, 08:37:36 AM
I'm watching Leslie now as it could affect Spain this weekend (as an extratropical system, of course!). Right now models aren't agreeing on where it would go. This seems a repeat of Nadine... coincidentally a tropical storm with that name appeared yesterday.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: paulthemapguy on October 10, 2018, 09:27:56 AM
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

On a different note, how weird would it be for Leslie to drift south to the Cabo Verde Islands and then start a new life as a Cabo Verde storm tracking westward again?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 10, 2018, 09:31:28 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/us/hurricane-michael-wxc/


Update Panama City is one of Hurricane Michaels targets.


https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/tropical-storm-hurricane-michael-florida/
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: formulanone on October 10, 2018, 09:38:50 AM
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.

Having seen hundreds of these forecasts, they're usually careful enough to state that a storm "may strengthen" and "we're keeping an eye on it", even for the weak tropical storms that may never make landfall.

If folks didn't learn anything from the thousands that didn't evacuate from Florence just a few weeks ago, then only willful ignorance is to blame.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on October 10, 2018, 09:59:30 AM
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

This actually has been a constant pattern of late.  Over the past 2 years, numerous storms have been predicted to hit a certain windspeed by a certain time, only to have it increase greatly.

The biggest issue is weather forecasters aren't held to any degree of standard, at least in the public eye.  If anything, weather forecasters get the sympathic vote, because "you can't control the weather" and "they try their hardest".  None of that flies in my book.  They literally have one job: Predict the weather.  Unlike nearly anything else, weather has existed since the beginning of time.  The amount of data out there is obscene.  And yet, weather forecasts are amateurishly wrong at times. 

Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

And when it comes to it, people don't really understand forecasts anyway.  I watch a forum for a resort island area.  People book their trips a year out.  But they never look at the forecast until 3 weeks before they go on their trip, only to see a weather map showing nothing but thunderstorms and rain.  First, they ask how the weather is today because they're going away in a few weeks.  Today's weather has absolutely no impact on anything tomorrow, much less a few weeks away.  The chances of a non-stop week's worth of thunderstorms is zero, and when it does happen it occurs for very short periods of time, but people freak out thinking their entire vacation will be ruined.  In the few instances they actually report back after their trip, usually they acknowledge that the weather was sunny except for a few showers. 

So, anyway, the point of my rant is this:  The forecasters once again were wrong in their predictions.  But they're not held accountable in any way, shape or form, so they will continue to have no reason to improve.  If anything, local mayors and state governors will get the brunt of the criticism if there's any problems, even though they best they could do was listen to the very same weather forecasts and prepare based on what they know.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: 1 on October 10, 2018, 10:05:04 AM
Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

About temperature: it should be displayed as "high of 756", not just "high of 75". And if the high isn't between noon and 5 PM, say so.
About rain: 15% chances happen 15% of the time. Additionally, if there's a 15% chance of rain at any given time during the day, the chance that it rains at all that day is significantly more than 15% (exactly how much more depends on other factors).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on October 10, 2018, 10:36:12 AM
Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

This is really the biggest obstacle, I think. People tend to think that a forecast is a specific outcome, and that if that exact outcome doesn't occur, the forecast was wrong. But forecasts are actually ranges and probabilities; just for a basic example, a 60% chance of rain means a 40% chance of not raining. So if it rains, that was one of the possible outcomes, and the forecast was correct. If it doesn't rain, that was another possible outcome, so the forecast is still correct.

There is also the fact that forecasts change over time. A 60% chance of rain for 9am tomorrow morning might become an 80% chance by the midnight before, a 90% chance by 6am, and eventually reach a 100% chance by 9am (i.e., it is raining). But if people are standing around at 9am in the rain saying, "hey, there's only a 60% chance it's raining right now," they're not quite understanding the situation

I think forecasters are pretty good at cautioning that their predictions will change over time; what could be improved is the awareness that a specific prediction has an intrinsic range and uncertainty. But the public has to take some responsibility for learning what they canyou still often hear people say that they'll never trust tomorrow's forecast, because they can just look out the window and see whether it's raining today. That logic just doesn't hold up.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 10, 2018, 11:29:39 AM


Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

The models and NHC don't do well often with rapid intensification. I know it is hard to predict, but I feel like it is easier than what they predicict. Even the 125 mph storm I predicted would happen was too low and I was above all the guidance.

They did this with Harvey last year. And Patricia was record worst with the error rates (100+ mph just 36 hours out).

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: formulanone on October 10, 2018, 11:44:29 AM
Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

This actually has been a constant pattern of late.  Over the past 2 years, numerous storms have been predicted to hit a certain windspeed by a certain time, only to have it increase greatly.

The biggest issue is weather forecasters aren't held to any degree of standard, at least in the public eye.  If anything, weather forecasters get the sympathic vote, because "you can't control the weather" and "they try their hardest".  None of that flies in my book.  They literally have one job: Predict the weather.  Unlike nearly anything else, weather has existed since the beginning of time.  The amount of data out there is obscene.  And yet, weather forecasts are amateurishly wrong at times. 

Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

And when it comes to it, people don't really understand forecasts anyway.  I watch a forum for a resort island area.  People book their trips a year out.  But they never look at the forecast until 3 weeks before they go on their trip, only to see a weather map showing nothing but thunderstorms and rain.  First, they ask how the weather is today because they're going away in a few weeks.  Today's weather has absolutely no impact on anything tomorrow, much less a few weeks away.  The chances of a non-stop week's worth of thunderstorms is zero, and when it does happen it occurs for very short periods of time, but people freak out thinking their entire vacation will be ruined.  In the few instances they actually report back after their trip, usually they acknowledge that the weather was sunny except for a few showers. 

So, anyway, the point of my rant is this:  The forecasters once again were wrong in their predictions.  But they're not held accountable in any way, shape or form, so they will continue to have no reason to improve.  If anything, local mayors and state governors will get the brunt of the criticism if there's any problems, even though they best they could do was listen to the very same weather forecasts and prepare based on what they know.

1) In their defense, it's not exact science. It goes without saying that storm systems do not follow rails, roads, nor timetables. Each storm system that fails to meet the armchair post-storm expectations of "potential disaster", there's going to be critics that complained that the media over-warned everyone at the expense of other information and people were over-prepared for a gentle rainstorm.

2) Even as ignorant as I choose to be of the news, I've still been hearing about this since Saturday.

3) The "Category" of the storm is listed by a sustained peak wind, though not representative of the entire storm system. If it increases for a few moments into the next category, then that's how it's rated for next few hours.

4) Tropical wave / storm / hurricane prediction used to have a lot more inaccuracy, even 15-20 years ago. Their paths, while not perfect due to all sorts of atmospheric changes, have been far more consistently predicted and tracked in recent years.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on October 10, 2018, 11:53:54 AM
There is also the fact that forecasts change over time. A 60% chance of rain for 9am tomorrow morning might become an 80% chance by the midnight before, a 90% chance by 6am, and eventually reach a 100% chance by 9am (i.e., it is raining). But if people are standing around at 9am in the rain saying, "hey, there's only a 60% chance it's raining right now," they're not quite understanding the situation

This is where forecasting in advance becomes important:  Let's say I want to do an event this weekend.  Let's say, for fun, I'm gonna rent an open-air bus and have a road-enthusiast meeting.  We all look at the forecast and Saturday looks to be a nice day - mostly sunny, with a 20% chance of rain in the early morning.  We all meet up at 10am and board the bus.  Except, a cold front expected to remain 100 miles to the south crept north, and now it's raining on us.  The bus can't continue because he doesn't run in bad conditions.  The rental fee was non-refundable, so I'm out several hundred bucks.   The attendees all saw the forecast and didn't bring any rain gear.  We can't do our trip, and I'm out several hundred dollars, because the forecast wasn't correct.

Even places that can do well in rainy weather may suffer:  Let's say we decide to bag it and go indoor bungee jumping.  A whole bunch of people are there.  The lines are long.  They are understaffed because the forecast predicted a nice sunny day, and they weren't expecting a whole slew of people arriving.  People get upset and write a bad review on Yelp because they didn't have a great time with long lines and few people working the place.  Or a restaurant that didn't expect a lot of people is now slammed because picnics are cancelled.  Again - negative Yelp reviews.

So, nailing that forecast is important, because basically there's a whole lot of people relying on it.

Oh, the weather forecaster?  They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain.  They were correct.  They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain.  They were correct!    And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 10, 2018, 12:00:20 PM


Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

The models and NHC don't do well often with rapid intensification. I know it is hard to predict, but I feel like it is easier than what they predicict. Even the 125 mph storm I predicted would happen was too low and I was above all the guidance.

They did this with Harvey last year. And Patricia was record worst with the error rates (100+ mph just 36 hours out).

LG-TP260



Rapid intensification is not rare, but it is only fairly recently understood. It took all the way until Charley and Wilma before it was given a serious look and only recently have there been tools developed that can predict it with any level of skill.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 10, 2018, 01:12:34 PM
With a pressure of 919 hPa (mb) and landfall expected in the next hour, Michael is likely to be the third most intense landfalling hurricane in U.S. history, following only the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane (892 hPa) and Camille (900 hPa). Katrina and Maria are tied for fourth (920 hPa).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 10, 2018, 01:22:59 PM
Michael is the 2nd strongest catagory 4 hurricane in the Atlantic by pressure, only behind Opal (916 mb).

10:40 PDT update: 155 mph at landfall. Strongest October landfall in the US in both wind speed and pressure
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: MNHighwayMan on October 10, 2018, 01:30:22 PM
Oh, the weather forecaster?  They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain.  They were correct.  They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain.  They were correct!    And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.

The problems created by the weather are not the fault of the meteorologist. Don't be ridiculous.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: empirestate on October 10, 2018, 01:44:55 PM
This is where forecasting in advance becomes important:  Let's say I want to do an event this weekend.  Let's say, for fun, I'm gonna rent an open-air bus and have a road-enthusiast meeting.  We all look at the forecast and Saturday looks to be a nice day - mostly sunny, with a 20% chance of rain in the early morning.  We all meet up at 10am and board the bus.  Except, a cold front expected to remain 100 miles to the south crept north, and now it's raining on us.  The bus can't continue because he doesn't run in bad conditions.  The rental fee was non-refundable, so I'm out several hundred bucks.   The attendees all saw the forecast and didn't bring any rain gear.  We can't do our trip, and I'm out several hundred dollars, because the forecast wasn't correct.
[]
Oh, the weather forecaster?  They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain.  They were correct.  They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain.  They were correct!

Yep, you've got it exactlythe forecast was "correct", because rain was one of the two equally possible outcomes. (Not equally likely, but equally possible.) The salient point here is that we should stop thinking of predictions as being "correct" or "wrong", because they refer to events in the future, by definition impossible to corroborate or to measure.

Quote
And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.

And I realize you mean this rhetorically, but indeed, they will think of the issues that result, and of course, they didn't actually cause them. The rain caused the issues, and the people took the (very reasonable) 80% gamble, and happened not to win it that time.

But you make the very good point that, in addition to the responsible dissemination of information (the forecaster), it's equally incumbent on the public to responsibly digest it. The Yelp reviews you mentioned are another great example: how many times have you heard someone say, "wow, you actually trust Yelp reviews?" To which I'd reply, "No, but I trust myself to interpret and digest Yelp reviews as part of making a decision."
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on October 10, 2018, 02:10:30 PM
Landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach FL as a Cat 4 storm with winds of 155 mph, 2 mph below Cat 5 strength
1050079839158439937[/tweet]/photo/1] (http://[tweet)/photo/1[/url]
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 10, 2018, 05:19:03 PM
People tend to think that a forecast is a specific outcome, and that if that exact outcome doesn't occur, the forecast was wrong. But forecasts are actually ranges and probabilities; just for a basic example, a 60% chance of rain means a 40% chance of not raining. So if it rains, that was one of the possible outcomes, and the forecast was correct. If it doesn't rain, that was another possible outcome, so the forecast is still correct.

There was a 0% chance of rain today in my local forecast.  Nevertheless, while I was out golfing there were about 2 hours of light rain.

I did bring an umbrella just in case.  I didn't have my 1-iron with me, so I didn't have extra protection from lightning strike.


Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 10, 2018, 05:20:56 PM
With an ace of 111.5, the 2018 atlantic hurricane season is now garrenteed to be an above average season. So much for that 10% chance prediction back in August.

Hyperactive is at or above 156 ace.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 10, 2018, 05:22:54 PM
https://www.al.com/news/bcb500-hurricane-michael-live-updates-latest-on-path-track-landfall.html

Update Hurricane Michael is heading to Alabama.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 10, 2018, 07:02:25 PM
https://www.macon.com/news/local/article219770935.html


Update the state of Georgia is now on Hurricane Michael Watch.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 10, 2018, 07:17:09 PM
https://www.al.com/news/bcb500-hurricane-michael-live-updates-latest-on-path-track-landfall.html
Update Hurricane Michael is heading to Alabama.

Per weather.com --

Dothan, AL   
NNW 39 mph  currently
WNW 48 mph  peak speed at 11:00 pm

Does that look accurate?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 10, 2018, 09:57:54 PM
https://radioinsight.com/headlines/171070/hurricane-michael-takes-panama-city-off-the-air/


https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/hurricane-michael-s-winds-knock-wfla-s-sister-stations-off-air/1513665468


Update Several Media Outlets in Panama City has went off the Air due to Hurricane Michael.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 10, 2018, 10:04:18 PM
https://www.al.com/news/bcb500-hurricane-michael-live-updates-latest-on-path-track-landfall.html
Update Hurricane Michael is heading to Alabama.
Per weather.com --
Dothan, AL   
NNW 39 mph  currently
WNW 48 mph  peak speed at 11:00 pm
Per weather.com --

Valdosta, GA
S 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Bainbridge, GA
WSW 48 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Dothan, AL
NW 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Thomasville, GA
SW 47 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alps on October 10, 2018, 10:05:10 PM
With an ace of 111.5, the 2018 atlantic hurricane season is now guaranteed to be an above average season. So much for that 10% chance prediction back in August.

Hyperactive is at or above 156 ace.

I agreed with the 10% too. El Nio was supposed to be a moderating influence. Suddenly we have three hurricanes simultaneously in October (well, 2H+1TS). Maybe it just failed to materialize despite the likelihood foreseen as late as July?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 10, 2018, 11:29:54 PM
https://www.11alive.com/article/weather/hurricane/hurricane-michael-hangs-on-as-barely-a-category-1-storm/85-601724299
Update Hurricane Michael is now being mentioned as a Category 1 storm.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 10, 2018, 11:44:22 PM
Per weather.com --
Dothan, AL   
NNW 39 mph  currently
WNW 48 mph  peak speed at 11:00 pm
Per weather.com --
Valdosta, GA
S 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
Bainbridge, GA
WSW 48 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
Dothan, AL
NW 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
Thomasville, GA
SW 47 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Albany, GA
WSW 37 mph  currently
W 47 mph  peak speed at 1:00 am
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 11, 2018, 09:25:11 AM
https://www.apnews.com/3cdbb4c6702f49eeae0d5fae6b917592


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-11-hurricane-michael-damage-florida-georgia-alabama-carolina


Updates on Michael as of TOday.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 11, 2018, 09:30:57 AM
The coast is wrecked. I think a Cat 5 landfall happened.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 11, 2018, 03:34:16 PM
Meanwhile I'm watching closely hurricane Leslie as it could threaten the Western Canary Islands. The AEMET (the Spanish equivalent of the NWS) has already issued a special advisory.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 11, 2018, 03:39:43 PM
The storm is forecast to pass thru eastern Virginia with heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain and wind, with peak winds in the 25 to 28 mph range late this evening.  Looked at VA Beach and Richmond hourly forecasts on weather.com.  I'll be watching the James River over the next few days to see if there will be any flooding.

James River at Richmond-Westham
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2

That is a couple miles from my house.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 11, 2018, 07:06:32 PM


The coast is wrecked. I think a Cat 5 landfall happened.

Quote from: Dr. Rick Knabb
it could be upgraded to cat 5 in postseason analysis

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 11, 2018, 09:23:53 PM
https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/nws-says-a-tornado-touched-down-in-virginia/1517662097


Update a Tornado warning has been reported in Virginia due to Hurricane Micahel.


https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/video-major-flooding-at-longwood-university-in-farmville/1517878118
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on October 12, 2018, 05:24:02 PM
I heard Michael wrecked Northern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula too. The weird thing is that most of the DOT websites have been saying the roads are clear, aside from some trees that crashed down onto them.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 12, 2018, 10:05:35 PM
I heard Michael wrecked Northern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula too. The weird thing is that most of the DOT websites have been saying the roads are clear, aside from some trees that crashed down onto them.

Not that I have heard.  Plenty of (upper 20s with gusts to about 40) wind and very heavy rains at times, lots of power outages, but no major damage.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Brandon on October 13, 2018, 11:35:15 AM
Meanwhile I'm watching closely hurricane Leslie as it could threaten the Western Canary Islands. The AEMET (the Spanish equivalent of the NWS) has already issued a special advisory.

Looks like Leslie is heading for the mainland, maybe somewhere just north of Lisbon.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 13, 2018, 12:21:53 PM
James River at Richmond-Westham
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2
That is a couple miles from my house.

Has exceeded flood stage by 3 feet.  That is the peak and will start declining after midnight tonight.  This is only minor flooding.  Water level looks close to that of Riverside Drive in a few places.  Not a big deal as sometimes sections of the road have to close for a while due to something like this.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Alps on October 13, 2018, 04:27:54 PM
Michael is now predicted to give Ireland a miss and head toward the Iberian Peninsula instead (right after Leslie, fun), but Storm Callum has been part of a particularly rainy spell here that has resulted in rivers as high as they ever get. The Liffey was only a few feet below the tops of the bridge arches in Dublin.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: plain on October 13, 2018, 05:41:11 PM
I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 13, 2018, 08:11:45 PM
I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.

Lots of power outages in the Richmond area, probably about 20% at the beginning.  I just got mine back after 48 hours without.  Crews from New Brunswick repaired the damage on the line behind my house which serves about 20 homes.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: plain on October 13, 2018, 11:28:08 PM
I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.

Lots of power outages in the Richmond area, probably about 20% at the beginning.  I just got mine back after 48 hours without.  Crews from New Brunswick repaired the damage on the line behind my house which serves about 20 homes.

Just got back home about 20 min ago. My apt is in good shape but my street has debris still scattered about. My power is on but apparently it was off at some point because I saw water on the floor in front of my deep freezer.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 20, 2018, 01:26:58 PM
With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 20, 2018, 02:21:56 PM
With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

How far back do the 'records' go back before weather satellites, and especially before weather aircaft full coverage,  some cyclones never came near land and remained unknown by humans.  I don't follow the eastern Pacific but I do follow the North Atlantic on NOAA NHC and that is certainly the case there.

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 20, 2018, 02:30:43 PM
With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

How far back do the 'records' go back before weather satellites, and especially before weather aircaft full coverage,  some cyclones never came near land and remained unknown by humans.  I don't follow the eastern Pacific but I do follow the North Atlantic on NOAA NHC and that is certainly the case there.
1971 is what "reliable" records go to in the epac
1960 in the Atlantic for entire basin: yet the record is currently 1933, despite a lack of knowledge of what was in the deep atlantic.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 20, 2018, 03:16:03 PM
With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

Random spam

But not the one with the most storms, which is still 1992 at 27 (main list exhausted and three hawaiian storms), while this years has had "only" 22 so far (21 from the main list, one hawaiian storm). 2015 had 26 (18 from the main list and 8 hawaiian storms).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 21, 2018, 09:57:42 AM
Okay, the TCR for Alberto is out... and is now entered into my database, as they have reclassified it from a subtropical to a fully tropical storm (albeit I have it as starting on May 28, when the TCR considers it became fully tropical as I don't recognize subtropical things).

Fun fact: had subtropical storms been named in 1992, Andrew would be still on the list (at the cost of one "unrecognition" by me), and Bonnie would be gone.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 21, 2018, 07:30:58 PM
Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (Weve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 21, 2018, 09:38:06 PM
Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (Weve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5
The forecast from the NHC isn't even updated yet. This isn't looking good. Good chance of hitting cat 5, but I don't think it will make landfall above a cat 3.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 22, 2018, 01:44:47 AM
Willia: 155 mph

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 22, 2018, 09:18:41 AM
Cat 5 now.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on October 22, 2018, 10:15:43 AM
Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing this? The NHC website is still saying 155 mph for me. Although I think NHC should have upgraded it...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 22, 2018, 10:34:03 AM
Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing this? The NHC website is still saying 155 mph for me. Although I think NHC should have upgraded it...
ATCF, or the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System.
If you want to see it, here’s the link: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file)

Note: You read it as follows - Internal Designation (XXL, L is for Atlantic, XX is numbers) Name, Date, Time (UTC), Location, Basin, Winds (in knots), and pressure.

NHC will likely up it momentarily.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 22, 2018, 11:10:49 AM
Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (Weve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5

It's a Category 5 now.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 22, 2018, 04:39:29 PM
Even the NHC has slipped and called it "Wilma" :sombrero::

Quote from: NHC's forecast discussion on hurricane Willa no. 10
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 24, 2018, 02:36:10 AM
Even the NHC has slipped and called it "Wilma" :sombrero::

Quote from: NHC's forecast discussion on hurricane Willa no. 10
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

CBS radio news called Wilma. NEWSFLASH: Wilma is retired, learn to distinguish, especially the NHC.

That deescalated quickly. Willia went from 115 mph to 45 mph in less than 3 hours.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 24, 2018, 03:44:52 AM
Wilma is retired in the Atlantic only. It could still replace Willa in the Eastern Pacific if needed. There are several names in the Eastern Pacific lists that have been retired in the Atlantic before the start of current lists (Celia and Dora come to mind). I wonder what NHC would do in the improbable case a storm named Celia makes it across the isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 24, 2018, 12:01:46 PM
The eye of Category 5 Super Typhoon Yutu is currently passing over Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands with winds of 155 knots (180 mph), and the NOAA ASOS weather stations in Tinian and Saipan have both failed.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 24, 2018, 12:05:01 PM
Wilma is retired in the Atlantic only. It could still replace Willa in the Eastern Pacific if needed. There are several names in the Eastern Pacific lists that have been retired in the Atlantic before the start of current lists (Celia and Dora come to mind). I wonder what NHC would do in the improbable case a storm named Celia makes it across the isthmus of Tehuantepec.

NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 24, 2018, 05:37:23 PM
NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.

It is rare but a storm could cross Central America and have existed in both basins.  So that is a reason why to not utilize a name that has been retired from one of the basins.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 24, 2018, 11:55:00 PM
NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.

It is rare but a storm could cross Central America and have existed in both basins.  So that is a reason why to not utilize a name that has been retired from one of the basins.
The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 06:09:54 AM
]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

Apparently it is possible, but there are no known examples yet.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/ASK/hurricanes.html
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 25, 2018, 08:05:32 AM
I remember late last year when the GFS went crazy and formed a "tropical anticyclone" just North of New Guinea which went to cross the Equator into the Northern Hemisphere. Even better, it bombed that system into a 871 mbar monster typhoon. In the end Tembin formed in the Northern Hemisphere and went West instead of North, and peaked only at category 2.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 09:13:29 AM
The South Atlantic had a hurricane in 2004, the only one known in 200 years of modern storm tracking.

Vertical wind shears in the South Atlantic are usually too strong for hurricanes.  Winds in the upper troposphere (about 6 miles high) are 20+ mph faster than winds at the ocean surface.  This difference, or shear, rips storms apart before they intensify too much.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 25, 2018, 11:10:11 AM
]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

Apparently it is possible, but there are no known examples yet.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/ASK/hurricanes.html

It is theoretically possible given the relative lack of Coriolis force near the equator. The tropical low that gave rise to Tropical Cyclone Agni in the Arabian Sea in 2004 briefly crossed into the Southern Hemisphere and was noted by RSMC La Runion in their end-of-season report. Several global models depicted Tropical Depression 09C in 2015 and Hurricane Pali in 2016 in the Central Pacific also crossing the equator, although neither system survived long enough to do so (although the remnants of Pali did straddle the equator before dissipating).

Outflow from low-latitude tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere can extend across the Equator (it happens frequently with tropical cyclones in the South Pacific), and sometimes cutoff lows form that can give rise to tropical cyclones, although these aren't exactly "equator-crossing" systems.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 12:43:40 PM
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 25, 2018, 02:01:36 PM
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.

...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on October 25, 2018, 08:31:15 PM
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.

You just posted that it was theoretically possible in a post this morning.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on October 26, 2018, 09:39:39 AM
A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.

You just posted that it was theoretically possible in a post this morning.

I meant that the process of a tropical cyclone spinning down, then spinning back up in the opposite direction upon crossing the Equator wouldn't work. If it remained at a low latitude where the Coriolis effect is negligible, the system would just continue as an anticyclonic circulation that would gradually spin down and dissipate.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on October 26, 2018, 09:53:36 AM
TCs cant cross it because the Coriolis affect - there isnt enough spin within 5 degrees of the equator.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 27, 2018, 01:16:58 AM
https://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/215293-typhoon-rosita-pagasa-forecast-october-27-2018-11am

Update Philippines is on Typhoon watch on Yutu according to this report.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on October 27, 2018, 03:31:08 AM
Another subtropical storm has formed: Oscar.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on October 27, 2018, 06:37:19 AM
Again, why the freak they name subtropical storms? I don't recognize them, and thankfully they reanalized Alberto to have been a fully tropical storm before landfall. IMO Chantal, Erin and Melissa (third M in a row) should have been retired in 2007 instead of Dean, Felix and Noel. I also don't recognize tropical storms that weren't named because they were missed when they happened, but I recognize the Perfect Storm of 1991 as advisories were issued on it even they left the otherwise hurricane Henri unnamed as it had caused destruction before becoming a hurricane.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on October 29, 2018, 10:36:53 AM
https://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/10/hurricane_oscar_2018_may_get_s.html


Update the Atlantic is on Hurricane Oscar Watch.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-28/-dangerous-typhoon-yutu-bears-down-on-philippines-luzon


Also the Philippines is taking precautions for Typhoon Yutu


and Mexico facing the Fallout of Willa


https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hurricane-willa-affected-33000/
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on November 05, 2018, 03:48:02 PM
The Eastern Pacific is now in overtime with tropical storm Xavier. They added the X, Y and Z names in 1985 to avoid using Greek letters (something that would eventually happen in the Atlantic 20 year latter).
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on December 03, 2018, 02:06:42 PM
Well the 2018 East Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane seasons are over. Michael will probably get upgraded to Category 5 in post-analysis. The East Pacific had 3-4 Category 5s (if Hector gets upped) and 10 Category 4s!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on February 07, 2019, 03:46:30 AM
The SW Indian has a cat 2 and a cat 4 (equivalents 1 min wind speed) active right now. 1 os near Madagascar.

LG-TP260

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 17, 2019, 06:28:56 PM
And with the formation of Tropical Storm* Trevor near the Great Coral Barrier I've now seen tropical storms with the names of all three main characters of GTA V: Michael, Franklin and Trevor. Although the first one is going to be struck off the Atlantic list along with Florence this week.

* Calling this a "Tropical Storm" is technically incorrect since the Australian Bureau of Meteorology doesn't officially use that term. But I do for all tropical cyclones below hurricane strength, regardless of location.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 22, 2019, 09:36:51 AM
As expected, Florence and Michael have fallen off the Atlantic list and have been replaced with Francine and Milton. This means no original F names are left on the lists. There is exactly one original I name remaining: Isaac. No names have been retired in the Eastern Pacific East of 140W.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on March 22, 2019, 09:44:09 AM
As expected, Florence and Michael have fallen off the Atlantic list and have been replaced with Francine and Milton. This means no original F names are left on the lists. There is exactly one original I name remaining: Isaac. No names have been retired in the Eastern Pacific East of 140W.

Well, they got my middle name.  I don't think my first name has ever yet been on either of those lists.

They got up to "W" one year, and there was a major storm named Wilma, and at that time I had a coworker by that name.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on March 22, 2019, 05:12:41 PM
It was 2005. They ran out of names, so they ended up naming storms after Greek letters instead. There were so many storms, the year actually ended before the last storm dissipated!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on April 02, 2019, 12:32:18 PM
Michaels TCR should be coming out anytime soon. I think itll be upgraded to Category 5.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on April 03, 2019, 01:00:03 PM
After Cyclone Veronica explosively intensified, it appears western AU is under attack again. The GFS model wants not one, not two, but THREE systems to skirt the west coast, with the current one (Invest 97S) making landfall.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on April 19, 2019, 02:08:36 PM
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-category-5-at-time-of-us-landfall

Michael has been officially upgraded to a CAT 5.

SM-J737T

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: ET21 on April 19, 2019, 02:26:47 PM
Not surprised at all
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on April 19, 2019, 03:49:34 PM
And I thought it was impossible for the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5 for more than two years in a row. This has not happened before.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: MNHighwayMan on April 19, 2019, 10:13:29 PM
And I thought it was impossible for the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5 for more than two years in a row. This has not happened before.

As if the current climate situation has any sort of precedent. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on April 23, 2019, 12:10:48 PM
And I thought it was impossible for the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5 for more than two years in a row. This has not happened before.
Both basins are in their respective active cycles though. And yes it has, 2003-2005 (Isabel, Ike, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma).

I'm more surprised that it was the first time in a while if ever that the Atlantic and E/C Pacific have both had a CAT 5 in the same season.

SM-J737T

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on April 23, 2019, 01:38:16 PM
And I thought it was impossible for the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5 for more than two years in a row. This has not happened before.
Both basins are in their respective active cycles though. And yes it has, 2003-2005 (Isabel, Ivan, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma).

FTFY.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on April 24, 2019, 03:50:56 AM
Both basins are in their respective active cycles though. And yes it has, 2003-2005 (Isabel, Ivan, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma).

Forgot about that. Ike was in 2008, and wasn't a Category 5.
I'm more surprised that it was the first time in a while if ever that the Atlantic and E/C Pacific have both had a CAT 5 in the same season.

I was more surprised when the JTWC demoted typhoon Noru from Category 5, thus making 2017 the first year in a long time the Western Pacific failed to produce a Cat 5.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on May 21, 2019, 12:32:00 AM
And the Atlantic season gets an early start for the 5th year in a row, with the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on May 21, 2019, 03:58:50 AM
Again a subtropical storm? Why they name them, if they aren't tropical? And again Andrea, I don't recognize the 2007 iteration exactly because of that, instead considering that season started with Barry. At least last year I rescued Alberto as it was reanalysed to be a fully tropical storm.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on May 21, 2019, 06:51:23 AM
Again a subtropical storm? Why they name them, if they aren't tropical? And again Andrea, I don't recognize the 2007 iteration exactly because of that, instead considering that season started with Barry. At least last year I rescued Alberto as it was reanalysed to be a fully tropical storm.

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.  Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.  In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast.  Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough.  In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.  Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.  In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Extratropical Cyclone:
A cyclone of any intensity for which the primary energy source is baroclinic, that is, results from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on July 11, 2019, 05:00:37 PM
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on July 11, 2019, 06:41:31 PM
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.

Run, Barry, run!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: vdeane on July 11, 2019, 08:46:18 PM
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.
Is there a reason Andrea was skipped?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on July 11, 2019, 08:59:55 PM
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.
Is there a reason Andrea was skipped?

Subtropical Storm Andrea formed May 20, but fell apart on May 21.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on July 12, 2019, 08:09:52 PM
Tropical Storm Barry is the first Atlantic storm in my records this year. This only has happened once before, coincidentally also skipping Andrea and starting with Barry, in 2007. Out of three iterations of Andrea I only recognize one, in 2013. Barry could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana.

Run, Barry, run!

The state climatologist for Louisiana, and friend of mine, from my time at LSU, is named Barry.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on July 12, 2019, 08:33:35 PM
That said, WAFB, out of Baton Rouge, has a page of links concerning the various river levels in SE Louisiana:
https://www.wafb.com/weather/river-stages/?fbclid=IwAR1hTi9REaL6OOralY6Si1pBQYZFWg1EtmUUdkXqACnTRFEWiUKGKImLzhM

Mississippi River @ Baton Rouge
(https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/btrl1_hg.png)

Mississippi River @ New Orleans
(https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/norl1_hg.png)

Atchafalaya River @ Morgan City (Eye of Barry is supposed to come ashore near here)
(https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/norl1_hg.png)

Amite River @ Denham Springs (Eastern suburb of Baton Rouge)
(https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lix&gage=denl1)

Comite River @ Central (NE suburb of Baton Rouge)
(https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lix&gage=cmtl1)

Tangipahoa River @ US 190 (west of Hammond, north of New Orleans)
(https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lix&gage=robl1)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on July 13, 2019, 12:23:54 AM
https://www.kristv.com/media/v/content/f6ba6b03994443ef8b0e872f4eceb7c2 (https://www.kristv.com/media/v/content/f6ba6b03994443ef8b0e872f4eceb7c2)
Louisiana on Tropical storm watch.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on July 13, 2019, 11:16:26 PM
https://www.wafb.com/2019/07/13/barry-makes-landfall-weakens-tropical-storm/


http://www.wbrz.com/news/semi-full-of-strawberries-flipped-during-gusty-winds-closing-i-10-saturday-night


https://www.brproud.com/news/coast-guard-rescues-4-from-floodwaters-in-terrebonne-parish/


Here is more on Tropical Storm Barry.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: kalvado on July 14, 2019, 04:10:27 PM
I think we have proof that tariffs actually work. Barry is the first real US-made storm, replacing those imported from Africa...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Hurricane Rex on August 12, 2019, 12:56:06 PM
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could-be-hit-with-9-major-hurricanes-this-year-experts-say/amp/

And the award for most outrageous/overexaggerated headline is...

SM-J737T

Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: jeffandnicole on August 12, 2019, 01:22:06 PM
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could-be-hit-with-9-major-hurricanes-this-year-experts-say/amp/

And the award for most outrageous/overexaggerated headline is...
SM-J737T

Yeah...Newspaper editors simply don't care anymore. And honestly, when the public is so gullible that they probably won't read the story and just share it based on the headline, who can blame them.

For what it's worth, and what Rex was hinting at...

Quote
In the forecast, five to nine hurricanes are expected to hit stateside, with at least two of those classified as major hurricanes.

By the way - the chance was 45% of this even happening.  The article could've also said there's a 55% chance this WON'T happen, but that doesn't sound as catchy.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 21, 2019, 02:52:00 PM
Atlantic is really quiet this year. Only today Tropical Storm Chantal has formed. IMO it should have been Barry, as Andrea wasn't a tropical storm per the Tropical Cyclone Report and thus it shouldn't have been named (In fact of the three iterations of Andrea so far I only recognize the 2013 one as it was the only Andrea to be fully tropical).

In another news, Tropical Storm Bailu (known in the Philippines as Ineng, the JTWC still has it as a TD but I consider any named system to have reached TS status) has formed in the Western Pacific. This would be just another storm if it wasn't for the fact Bailu replaces Haiyan in the Western Pacific name list.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on August 21, 2019, 02:56:20 PM
Atlantic is really quiet this year. Only today Tropical Storm Chantal has formed. IMO it should have been Barry, as Andrea wasn't a tropical storm per the Tropical Cyclone Report and thus it shouldn't have been named (In fact of the three iterations of Andrea so far I only recognize the 2013 one as it was the only Andrea to be fully tropical).

Meh, I'll follow the NHC's naming policies. There's no reason subtropical storms shouldn't be named.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on August 21, 2019, 04:03:38 PM
Atlantic is really quiet this year.

Hopefully it will stay that way!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: MNHighwayMan on August 21, 2019, 11:44:54 PM
Atlantic is really quiet this year. Only today Tropical Storm Chantal has formed. IMO it should have been Barry, as Andrea wasn't a tropical storm per the Tropical Cyclone Report and thus it shouldn't have been named (In fact of the three iterations of Andrea so far I only recognize the 2013 one as it was the only Andrea to be fully tropical).
Meh, I'll follow the NHC's naming policies. There's no reason subtropical storms shouldn't be named.

Yeah. I'm going to trust the NHC, which is staffed with professionals, over the opinion of some rando on the Internet.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on August 28, 2019, 04:18:58 PM
I'm seeing hurricane Dorian right between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It may impact Florida as a major hurricane early next week...
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: D-Dey65 on August 30, 2019, 12:37:35 AM
I'm seeing hurricane Dorian right between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It may impact Florida as a major hurricane early next week...
Oh, it will impact Florida.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 01, 2019, 10:02:10 AM
Dorian now Category 5!!! There had never been four consecutive years with a Cat. 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: tolbs17 on September 01, 2019, 12:48:25 PM
Dorian now Category 5!!! There had never been four consecutive years with a Cat. 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before.
Seems to be more in the ocean than the land but things can change. Just keep watching!!!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 01, 2019, 03:30:23 PM
Dorian now Category 5!!! There had never been four consecutive years with a Cat. 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before.
Seems to be more in the ocean than the land but things can change. Just keep watching!!!

The Bahamas would like to disagree with you. Dorian just tied the 1935 Labor Day hurricane's record for the strongest landfall ever in the Atlantic basin, with 185 mph sustained winds. The pressure is also record-setting, with the official 910 mb beating Irma's 914 mb record for the lowest pressure ever in the open Atlantic.

I haven't seen many damage photos from Abaco Island yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if parts of it were completely leveled. The death and destruction from this thing is going to be enormous.

Anyway, I'm not liking the trend I'm seeing in the latest models. It looks like the subtropical ridge is a bit stronger and the storm appears to be faster than initially thought, which could bring Dorian a lot closer to the US coastline, Florida in particular.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: SSOWorld on September 02, 2019, 05:20:32 PM
(https://deadfix.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/img_5816.jpg)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 03, 2019, 08:15:02 AM
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/weather/dorian

Georgia is on hurricane watch. 



Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: route56 on September 11, 2019, 12:43:45 PM
It's now the meteorological mid-point of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season.

While Dorian was obviously the big focus, three more cyclones - Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle, popped up in the atlantic. Only Fernand directly impacted land as a cyclone, striking northeast Mexico.

As of 8:00 EDT Today, 9/11/19, there are three "Invests" in the Atlantic, only one of which the NHC has more than a 20 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone.

There's an invest in the Eastern Pacific that the NHC thinks is really good to become a Tropical Cyclone (90 percent)
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Interstate 69 Fan on September 11, 2019, 02:13:20 PM
It's now the meteorological mid-point of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season.

While Dorian was obviously the big focus, three more cyclones - Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle, popped up in the atlantic. Only Fernand directly impacted land as a cyclone, striking northeast Mexico.

As of 8:00 EDT Today, 9/11/19, there are three "Invests" in the Atlantic, only one of which the NHC has more than a 20 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone.

There's an invest in the Eastern Pacific that the NHC thinks is really good to become a Tropical Cyclone (90 percent)
Only two of them actually have Invest designations. The one closest to the US, 95L, has a 60% chance. 94L is located close to Barbados, that probably wont form. And the unnumbered system just off the African coastline needs to be watched closely, most models have that storm either striking Florida or the Bahamas.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 11, 2019, 02:29:42 PM
Fun fact about Gabrielle: It actually dissipated, and then regenerated so quickly there is no advisory gap on NHC's storm archive. It was killed on advisory 11, only to be redeclared a tropical storm just six hours later.

Meanwhile the Hawaiian list has started second round with tropical storm Akoni, the inaugural name back in 1982.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: bing101 on September 12, 2019, 10:57:05 AM
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/increasing-chances-for-humberto-this-weekend

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_42dd8f46-d553-11e9-af6f-1b4cca8bd158.html

Florida and Gulf Coast is currently preparing for Tropical storm Humberto.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: route56 on September 12, 2019, 05:02:49 PM
The storm in question is not named yet, but the NHC has initiated advisories (Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine) and a Tropical Storm Warning has gone up over part of the Bahamas.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: route56 on September 14, 2019, 06:17:23 PM
Looks like the now named Humberto will be a fish-spinner, albeit, there's a non-zero chance of it impacting Bermuda.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 14, 2019, 06:39:01 PM
a fish-spinner, with a chance of impacting Bermuda

contradiction in terms
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: route56 on September 14, 2019, 08:52:08 PM
contradiction in terms

Did my edit clarify it for you?
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: allniter89 on September 15, 2019, 12:24:27 AM

Very close to 100 this week :banghead:
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 17, 2019, 04:44:06 PM
Within a span of about an hour and a half, a new tropical depression formed, strengthened into Tropical Storm Imelda, and made landfall on Texas. It's looking like Houston and the rest of southeast Texas could get a hell of a lot of rain from this - probably not to Harvey or Allison levels, but a lot of flash flooding is expected in that area.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: route56 on September 23, 2019, 02:42:48 PM
Well, within the last week, we've had three more storms spin up.  Jerry looks to be spreading a second round of wind and rain to Bermuda, Karen is out in the Caribbean, and Lorenzo is out by the Cape Verde region.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, the forecaster gave us a couple of interesting advisory headlines:

..KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...

...GAME OVER... ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...

Mario's quest as a tropical cyclone is over. The low has produced only a few small areas of intermittent convection during the last day or so, but with insufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Mario is now a remnant low and this is the last advisory.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 24, 2019, 03:33:12 AM
The Atlantic has had five new tropical storms in just 10 days! Now that is crazy, or the season's peak.

Kiko is nowhere near the end of the Eastern Pacific, which I consider to include the so-called Central Pacific (much like Wikipedia does) and thus extends all the way to the 180 Meridian (which is also where hurricanes cease to be such and instead be referred to as typhoons). The -140 Meridian is just the NHC/CPHC boundary.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: route56 on September 24, 2019, 10:50:29 AM
The Atlantic has had five new tropical storms in just 10 days! Now that is crazy, or the season's peak.

AIUI, September 10 is usually the Atlantic hurricane season's "peak."

As for Kiko and how to treat the Pacific between 140W and 180... remember, a storm that strengthens to a Storm here receives its name from a separate list than either the East or West Pacific basins. Obviously, in yesterday's headline, the forecaster was referring to the dividing line between RSMC Miami and RSMC Honolulu.

Today's Forecaster had this to say about Kiko:

Quote
Still, Kiko has been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday.

Also, It appears that Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane, but will be a "true" fish spinner, passing to the east of Bermuda.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US 89 on September 29, 2019, 01:49:32 AM
I stopped following Lorenzo after its 145 mph peak on Friday morning. Imagine my surprise when I checked the NHC this evening and saw it had restrengthened back to a 160 mph category 5.

Assuming the rating holds up in post-season analysis, this storm is breaking a bunch of records. It is by far the easternmost category 5 on record at 45W (previous record was Hugo at 54W), and also had the lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane east of 50W. It also makes 2019 only the seventh season on record to feature two category 5 Atlantic hurricanes.

The Atlantic has never seen a fish-spinning Category 5. Depending on how close it comes to the Azores, Lorenzo could well be the first. Unfortunately, it won't be a true fishspinner because a French barge sank in the storm; 3 people have been rescued but 11 are still missing.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on September 29, 2019, 04:35:20 AM
Lorenzo will join the 2005 iteration of Emily in the very short list of storms that reached category 5 and yet managed to survive in the naming list. Even further, Lorenzo will be the first such storm to have been operationally recognized as cat. 5, as Emily was only upgraded in the post-season reanalysis. I already theorized such a scenario where a category 5 monster doesn't get retired, and now I get to see it.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: CNGL-Leudimin on December 01, 2019, 05:13:12 AM
Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end. A weird one, where my list of storms starts with Barry (skipping Andrea) and ends with Pablo and Sebastien (skipping Rebekah, thus Sebastien should have been Pablo). Chantal will remain in the list again thanks to a subtropical storm (which IMO shouldn't be named), it was spared from retirement in 2007 along with Erin and Melissa, and looks like Dorian will be struck down.
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: Beltway on December 01, 2019, 09:11:04 AM
Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end.

Good riddance!
Title: Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
Post by: US71 on December 01, 2019, 12:20:10 PM
Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end. A weird one, where my list of storms starts with Barry (skipping Andrea) and ends with Pablo and Sebastien (skipping Rebekah, thus Sebastien should have been Pablo). Chantal will remain in the list again thanks to a subtropical storm (which IMO shouldn't be named), it was spared from retirement in 2007 along with Erin and Melissa, and looks like Dorian will be struck down.

It will be a gray day if Dorian is struck down ;)