AARoads Forum

Non-Road Boards => Off-Topic => Weather => Topic started by: Alex on August 31, 2011, 09:51:32 PM

Title: T.S. Lee
Post by: Alex on August 31, 2011, 09:51:32 PM
Invest 93L is on the board today and it looks like the next week is going to be a big  :hmmm: for the Gulf of Mexico. Been reading comparisons of 1985's Hurricane Juan and Elena due to the erratic nature of the forecast track and overall sluggish steering patterns.

(http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201193_model.gif)

(http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFIR.JPG)

We drove to the beach this evening and already noted an increase in surf and a lot of low level cumulus clouds.

T.D. #13 is now Tropical Storm Lee.
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: allniter89 on August 31, 2011, 10:23:40 PM
Today on the 6pm news, channel 3 WEAR-Pensacola chief meteorologist Alan Strum mentioned it may stall off the coast and provide much needed rain to our area. Rough surf is predicted all weekend with 40-50% chance of rain.
Elena in 85 was our 1st hurricane in Florida so we evacuated to Tallahassee, IIRC Elena wandered toward the east so we drove home to Ft Walton Beach, we'd only been home a few hours when Elena wandered back west so we stayed at the local shelter, IIRC Elena wasnt a real big deal.
I just took a better look at the predicted possible paths, WOW, one is landfall in LA then it moves back south into the Gulf, and another has landfall in LA then it stays just onshore and moves southwest into TX and MX?   :crazy:
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: Brandon on August 31, 2011, 10:30:42 PM
Looking at Weather Underground, no one seems to know where this thing could go yet.  Hopefully it goes to Texas as a tropical depression.  They need the water.
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: berberry on September 01, 2011, 12:39:36 PM
Looking at Weather Underground, no one seems to know where this thing could go...

I'm watching the Wx Channel and just checked wunderground.com, and no one seems to even know which gulf thunderstorms are associated with the low and which ones aren't.  But they do seem to think that chances are improving for development, saying that it may become Tropical Storm Lee over the next day or so.

The model tracks haven't improved any since you posted.  No steering currents, they're saying.  That could turn out to be disastrous in itself, even if only minimal development occurs, should the storm maintain itself for a lengthy time in one place.
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: berberry on September 01, 2011, 01:05:22 PM
One thing new I just noticed on the model tracks shown on the wx channel (don't see it yet on wunderground) is that two of them seem to agree on a landfall near Corpus Christi and another is not far off them.  Trouble is they also indicate a very loooooong slooooow westward track just off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas before getting to land.  Doesn't seem to strengthen much, just spin and rain.  One factor may be the terrain along the Louisiana coast - the land is very, very flat many miles inland.  So even if the wave/depression/storm gets right to the coast and travels as the models indicate, flat marshland won't interfere with it much, allowing it to keep going longer than it otherwise would.
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: froggie on September 01, 2011, 01:27:18 PM
Quote
The model tracks haven't improved any since you posted.  No steering currents, they're saying.  That could turn out to be disastrous in itself, even if only minimal development occurs, should the storm maintain itself for a lengthy time in one place.

Indeed.  One need only remember Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 for what happens in that case.  Especially the residents of Houston.
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: berberry on September 01, 2011, 02:18:26 PM
I had switched back to cable news and surfing non-wx (dogs, actually) websites, and suddenly there's a wx update from the wx channel on msnbc.  The gulf coasts of Florida, Alabama and - looks like somewhat - Mississippi are experiencing very high surf and strong rips today.  The storm is organizing more rapidly than expected, and TS Lee may be with us by evening.  Forecast tracking hasn't improved any.
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: Scott5114 on September 01, 2011, 02:38:41 PM
I haven't seen these "invest" numbers before this season. Anyone have a quick explanation of them on hand, and why exactly the term "invest" is being used?
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: berberry on September 01, 2011, 03:10:01 PM
I haven't seen these "invest" numbers before this season. Anyone have a quick explanation of them on hand, and why exactly the term "invest" is being used?

A hurricane hunter hasn't yet verified tropical depression strength.  It's officially still a wave.  When it becomes a depression, it'll get a new, lower number, then when it's a storm it'll be named.
Title: Re: Invest 93L
Post by: Alex on September 01, 2011, 05:47:53 PM
I haven't seen these "invest" numbers before this season. Anyone have a quick explanation of them on hand, and why exactly the term "invest" is being used?

A hurricane hunter hasn't yet verified tropical depression strength.  It's officially still a wave.  When it becomes a depression, it'll get a new, lower number, then when it's a storm it'll be named.

The Invest numbers run from 90 to 99 and increase numerically before resetting after Invest 99. Invest 94L was identified today over the north Atlantic and has a chance of snagging the Lee name if it is upgraded the way Franklin, Gert, and Jose were before quickly becoming extratropical.

I have seen Invests used on weatherboards for many years now, but they only recently became a mainstream term on TWC, CNN, etc. in the last couple of years. The Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_%28meteorology%29) has a bit more info on them.
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: golden eagle on September 02, 2011, 12:06:09 AM
One thing this will do is douse the fire that's been burning in New Orleans East for several days.
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: Lightning Strike on September 02, 2011, 03:33:42 AM
As mentioned earlier they represent areas of investigation being conducted or that will be conducted by Hurricane Hunters as to the strength/organization of the cluster of storms. As for any updates NHC seems confident it'll gain tropical storm conditions as early as tomorrow but as to the track....anyone's guess. It would be nice to help Louisiana with the wildfires but there is that potential for another Allison as mentioned.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: Scott5114 on September 02, 2011, 10:08:01 AM
Ah, "invest"  is short for "investigation".  Why use only the numbers from 90 to 99? To avoid conflict with TD  numbers? Sorry, for some reason I'm really getting into the hurricane season for the first time this year; I'm normally more of a tornado guy for obvious reasons :D
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: berberry on September 02, 2011, 01:38:51 PM
Tropical Storm Lee.  I think this map, the 5-day from wunderground, tells the real story of this system better than the others I've seen.

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v226/berberry/throwaways/tslee_5day.gif)
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: WolfGuy100 on September 02, 2011, 03:11:22 PM
I knew this TD became TS Lee but I wish it'd go west into Texas because that state really need a lot of rains.
Title: Re: Tropical Storm Lee
Post by: Anthony_JK on September 02, 2011, 05:03:38 PM
I feel for Texas, because they could definitely use the rain...but unfortunately, it seems that that monster high-pressure ridge over the Southern Rockies that has been the major roadblock to them getting any drops of rain will hold ground enough to prevent any more move to the west.

Texas' loss, though, is New Orleans' loss as well, because they are going to get waxed with 10-15" of rain over the next 3-4 days, with isolated amounts nearly 20", as well as tropical storm force winds near 45-60 mph and even some isolated tornadoes along the N Central coast from SE LA to the western FL Panhandle.

But, at least it will be at worst a strong tropical storm or a barely minimum Cat 1 hurricane, not an Andrew or a Katrina by any means. The levees should hold this time. The storm drains and pumps, on the other hand, might have some problems.

Here where I sit, as it is, in Opelousas, we're expecting to stay on the "good" left side of the storm, with some wind (25 - 35 mph with some 45 or 50 gusts) and some decent rain (4-8"), but that's manageable. We got worse when Gustav and Rita came ashore.


Anthony
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: Darkchylde on September 02, 2011, 05:05:47 PM
Looks like this thing's going to come right over my house.

I hope it's got enough left in it to weather this storm.
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: The Premier on September 02, 2011, 07:20:17 PM
Looks like this thing's going to come right over my house.

I hope it's got enough left in it to weather this storm.

Be safe out there.
Title: Re: T.D. #13
Post by: Scott5114 on September 02, 2011, 08:06:16 PM
Forget weakening hurricanes... the government should have spent the money they spent on Stormfury on trying to weaken high pressure systems :ded:
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: WillWeaverRVA on September 02, 2011, 11:43:08 PM
Ah, "invest"  is short for "investigation".  Why use only the numbers from 90 to 99? To avoid conflict with TD  numbers? Sorry, for some reason I'm really getting into the hurricane season for the first time this year; I'm normally more of a tornado guy for obvious reasons :D

That's precisely why, although only 90-99 are used for active systems; 51-89 (but usually only 80-89) are used for tests.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: jgb191 on September 03, 2011, 01:21:10 AM
Unfortunately we're not going to get anything from Lee here in South Texas....if anything, it's going to get hotter here during Labor weekend.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: flaroads on September 03, 2011, 10:18:56 AM
Had one nasty squall line come through about 2am, with frequent lightning and thunder and some heavy rain, but other than that it has been fairly quiet in this part of Florida...
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: bassoon1986 on September 03, 2011, 11:47:02 AM
check out this weather channel video.  At 1:18 do they say the wrong interstate? It sounds like he is calling it "I-10 from Slidell to Baton Rouge"  which is I-12. Unless he means I-10 from Slidell through New Orleans and up to Baton Rouge but I don't think so.

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/watching-system-in-gulf-6584 (http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/watching-system-in-gulf-6584)
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: Darkchylde on September 03, 2011, 01:59:44 PM
Looks like we're just getting peripheral effects here - it's passing by farther to the west than the track indicated.

Bullet? Dodged.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: Alex on September 03, 2011, 08:15:09 PM
Had a loud thunderstorm this morning (2-245 am) with a lot of lightning to kick off our first real rainfall of Tropical Storm Lee. Been out and about all day otherwise in squally weather. The bays and Gulf are not really above normal (no tidal flooding observed anywhere). People are out and about doing their normal thing just about everywhere too.

(http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6193/6110757974_26f6367bed_z.jpg)

How the Gulf looked this morning.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: Alex on September 05, 2011, 12:22:34 PM
While Tropical Storm Lee is now extratropical, the winds are still playing along coastal areas, and storm surge is a problem on U.S. 90 & 98 across Battleship Parkway. Waters are over the road at Exit 30. The live traffic cam (http://aldotmedia2.dot.state.al.us/getVideo?Camera=DIV9+Camera+C18%3FMSWMExt%3D.asf) shows it well.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: berberry on September 05, 2011, 12:56:37 PM
Yeah, the live cams at mstraffic.com (http://www.mstraffic.com/) along US 90 are showing the same thing.  It takes quite a bit of wind to produce that kind of white-capping on Mississippi's beaches.  Of course, it was even more dramatic yesterday.

Some of the cameras are still shaking in the wind, particularly on the bridges.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: golden eagle on September 05, 2011, 09:14:39 PM
There was some white capping on the Ross Barnett Reservoir. Mike Siedel of the Weather Channel even did a live broadcast from there today. We had almost a foot rain in the Jackson area from Lee. 
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: froggie on September 08, 2011, 11:26:24 PM
The remnants of Lee...mainly the moisture...has traveled north and resulted in what has been effectively week-long rains in the DC area and points north and south.  Today and tonight, the flooding got bad enough to shut down parts of the DC Beltway, I-95 South, Route 1, GW Pkwy, I-66, US 301, and numerous other roads.  Needless to say, travel has been an outright mess.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: 1995hoo on September 09, 2011, 09:16:46 AM
Damn....the rain flooded out a commuter car park in Reston, VA, yesterday. I'm told this is near the corner of Wiehle Avenue and Sunset Hills Road.

(http://lh5.ggpht.com/-kKrFMxKgz4Y/Tmln8NUve7I/AAAAAAAACbc/yCBmr2oUSVE/2011-09-08_15-49-32_361.jpg?imgmax=800)


One of the Washington Post staffers who contributes to Dr. Gridlock's blog used the following very unfortunate wording to describe how Fairfax County is assisting stranded drivers (emphasis supplied):

Quote
The county will also ferry commuters, on an individual basis, to the Reston Town Center transit station, said Merni Fitzgerald, a Fairfax County spokeswoman.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on September 09, 2011, 11:14:31 PM
Now the center of Lee is following I-70 west from Columbus to St. Louis.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: froggie on September 10, 2011, 08:58:57 AM
That's not Lee.  It's an upper level low that existed before Lee.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: Hot Rod Hootenanny on September 13, 2011, 11:16:24 PM
That's not Lee.  It's an upper level low that existed before Lee.
Whatever it is, weather systems don't normally head east-to-west across the United States.
Title: Re: T.S. Lee
Post by: froggie on September 17, 2011, 08:20:41 AM
Normally, no.  But it's not unheard of, either, and does happen on occasion in the upper levels.