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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 48307 times)

Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2015, 09:28:44 AM »

Danny organized quite a bit last night, with ATCF data indicating that the storm is now a 100 mph Category 2 storm. I personally think that may be a bit low, with Dvorak estimates (T 5.0 from both agencies) indicating a 110-120 mph storm.

Recon also finding 968 mb pressures in the amazingly tight inner core:
« Last Edit: August 21, 2015, 12:28:38 PM by Thing 342 »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #26 on: August 21, 2015, 02:18:10 PM »

Cat 2  :bigass: :bigass: :bigass:

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #27 on: August 21, 2015, 02:25:50 PM »

Cat 2  :bigass: :bigass: :bigass:


If it stays out in the ocean, fine.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2015, 03:28:36 PM »

What about the dry air it's supposed to encounter?
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2015, 03:36:50 PM »

Category 3 hurricane now:

Quote
000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4

HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today.  Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts

CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #30 on: August 21, 2015, 05:01:51 PM »

Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...

And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #31 on: August 24, 2015, 11:37:57 PM »

With Danny gone, attention in the Atlantic turns to TS Erika, which could potentially threaten the US*:

* Though I imagine that anything deeper than a weak Cat 1 will be pulled northward away from the US, as the models favouring strengthening have shown. The current track is a compromise between them and the Euro and GFS, which keep Erika weaker and keep it on a more southerly track.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2015, 01:16:57 PM »

Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...

And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.

In 1982, my folks and I were living on Kauai when Hurricane Iwa hit. It hit the resort area of Poipu the hardest; we were living only a mile or so from the hotels. I still remember the downed trees and powerlines and the hotels smashed by the ocean. My parents had a little business by the Sheraton Kauai that rented mopeds, bicycles, surfboards and even underwater cameras; that got wiped out by Iwa.

By 1992, I had long since moved back to my native southern California, but my parents were still on Kauai when the much stronger Hurricane Iniki (Cat. 4) smashed into the island and tore it to shreds.

And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2015, 04:30:44 PM »

Tropical Storm Kilo (shorthand for kilogram :sombrero:) in Central Pacific now! It might impact Kauai as a hurricane. Now the 1982 record is tied...

And now is broken. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has just named Tropical Storm Loke (Not to be confused with the first hurricane then typhoon Ioke back in 2006). So many storms in the Central Pacific section of the Eastern Pacific (as Wikipedia sees it) this year.

In 1982, my folks and I were living on Kauai when Hurricane Iwa hit. It hit the resort area of Poipu the hardest; we were living only a mile or so from the hotels. I still remember the downed trees and powerlines and the hotels smashed by the ocean. My parents had a little business by the Sheraton Kauai that rented mopeds, bicycles, surfboards and even underwater cameras; that got wiped out by Iwa.

By 1992, I had long since moved back to my native southern California, but my parents were still on Kauai when the much stronger Hurricane Iniki (Cat. 4) smashed into the island and tore it to shreds.

And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D

Levi Cowan does a pretty good job including Hawaii hurricane threats with his analysis videos at his Tropical Tidbits web site.
His update last night indicated that Ignacio may be deflected north or south, and that due to the abnormally warmer ocean temps to the southeast of Hawaii, that it will have a higher chance of retaining hurricane status as it nears the island chain than last year's Iselle did.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2015, 04:33:11 PM »

Erika is gonna be very fun to watch over the next week
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #35 on: August 27, 2015, 06:29:37 PM »

Go home GFDL, you're drunk:

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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #36 on: August 28, 2015, 07:33:26 AM »

^^ I've seen worse things coming out from models. Like that one that went nuts and put part of Europe on 90+F temperatures... in December!
And now it looks like Ignacio might do something to Hawaii. I've been watching the Weather Channel, but all they talk about is Erika; Ignacio should be renamed "Ignorio." :-D

I'd rather call it 'Nacho', as that is commonly used in my country to refer to any person who has the first name Ignacio :bigass:. I would not be the first time I 'rename' a tropical cyclone, as last year's Iselle got referred to as 'Ixeya' (a mountain in my area which happens to be used as a girls' first name) by me.

With Goni, Atsani and Loke all three gone, I turn my focus eastwards. Yesterday, I thought Erika would end the Category 5 drought in the Atlantic (In fact all basins but Atlantic have seen at least one Category 5 in the current decade).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #37 on: August 29, 2015, 07:52:58 AM »

I'm now expecting Erika to dissipate and then to regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf. But such a disorganized storm is not interesting for me, I prefer category 4 hurricane Jimena over the open waters of Pacific ocean. And it was named only 48 hours ago! :wow:
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #38 on: August 30, 2015, 01:54:29 AM »

I'm now expecting Erika to dissipate and then to regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf. But such a disorganized storm is not interesting for me, I prefer category 4 hurricane Jimena over the open waters of Pacific ocean. And it was named only 48 hours ago! :wow:
The EPac is going bananas right now, with three Category 4 storms at the same time in Kilo, Jimena, and Ignacio. This is one hell of an El Nino, isn't it?
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #39 on: August 30, 2015, 05:03:46 AM »

Yeah. Now that Erika is gone, what is going on around Hawaii is crazy at least. Jimena has weakened a bit, though. Kilo may end up being like last year's Genevieve. That one also spent a long time struggling as a tropical depression, and then rapidly intensified to hurricane and super typhoon :sombrero:.

And now that I check NHC's website, I see they have named tropical storm Fred. However, I can't see it, I'm going to find it...

Edit: Found it! It's just off the coast of Africa.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #40 on: August 30, 2015, 05:29:15 PM »

Ignacio is less than 400 miles from me right now, but every update makes it look like less and less of big deal.  It's weakening and tracking further north.  And now the Tropical Storm Watch has been cancelled for this island.  I guess I should be relieved but part of me wanted to experience it.

I should watch what I wish for though, because I've got another month on these islands and its El Nino in the peak month of hurricane season.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #41 on: September 01, 2015, 12:39:08 PM »

Back in November 2013 when typhoon Haiyan someone asked about the differences between a hurricane and a typhoon. Here is an answer. After 12 days, Kilo is no longer a hurricane... but rather a typhoon, as it has crossed the International Date Line :sombrero:. It will be a really long-lived storm.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2015, 03:13:38 PM »

A powerful extratropical cyclone is starting to hit Spain right now... and it has a name: Henri. It happens a tropical storm formed East of Bermuda on September 9 and the NHC named it Henri. It tracked North, dissipated two days later, and then regenerated into this extratropical cyclone.

In other news, Kilo finally became extratropical on September 11, after spending 22 days as a tropical cyclone.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #43 on: September 19, 2015, 07:45:02 AM »

Tropical Storm Ida. All models (GFS, European, the always drunk Canadian, as well as the hurricane models HWRF and GFDL) see this cyclone reaching major hurricane status and stay away from land.

Also, we'll see yet another Hawaiian-named storm? Tropical depression Five-C (Twenty-C by my count, which groups NHC and CPHC responsability areas together) is now active.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #44 on: September 19, 2015, 08:00:25 AM »

Tropical Storm Ida. All models (GFS, European, the always drunk Canadian, as well as the hurricane models HWRF and GFDL) see this cyclone reaching major hurricane status and stay away from land.

Also, we'll see yet another Hawaiian-named storm? Tropical depression Five-C (Twenty-C by my count, which groups NHC and CPHC responsability areas together) is now active.

Don't see where the latest fish storm is forecast to become a major hurricane,  but would not be surprised to see it achieve it like Danny did just so they can say we had two major canes this season...

Otherwise *yawn*

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #45 on: September 19, 2015, 08:27:24 AM »

It's still way out, so Ida may not get so strong. I also got some preferences, I will be more focused on a Category 5 fish storm than a tropical storm threatening land. This happenned when Danny first formed, I was tracking typhoons Goni and Atsani out in the Western Pacific then. Another thing was typhoon Haiyan in 2013, I already knew it was going to hit the Philippines several days before it made to the news.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #46 on: September 26, 2015, 08:56:43 PM »

Ida has one of the oddest tracks I've ever seen.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #47 on: September 29, 2015, 05:39:55 PM »

Joaquin is looking scary for the northeast.
  Could start to rain tonight, and not stop until Monday. That's over 144 hours of straight rain...  :-o
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #48 on: September 29, 2015, 05:57:39 PM »

That thing is currently aiming straight at New Jersey on a lot of forecast models, which may not be the worst thing when we are in a serious drought right now.

Unless it strengthens into some monstrous hurricane before landfall in which case, fuck.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #49 on: September 29, 2015, 07:26:56 PM »

That thing is currently aiming straight at New Jersey on a lot of forecast models, which may not be the worst thing when we are in a serious drought right now.

Unless it strengthens into some monstrous hurricane before landfall in which case, fuck.

The NHC upped their forecast intensity from 65 MPH this morning to 90 MPH.

Models are still all over the place and the NHC discussion concurs with that:

Quote
Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the
west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available
guidance.  Later in the forecast period, there is a significant
divergence in the track guidance.  The HWRF and U.K. Met Office
models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United
States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system
well offshore.  The official forecast lies between these
possibilities
and is similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble solution.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 26.0N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 25.8N  71.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 25.5N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 25.1N  73.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 24.8N  73.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 25.0N  74.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 29.0N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH


 


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