AARoads Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

New rules for political content in signatures and user profiles. See this thread for details.

Author Topic: Tropical Storm Erika is about ready to hit Florida just in time for this weekend  (Read 3623 times)

roadman65

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9516
  • Location: Orlando, fl
  • Last Login: Today at 12:29:15 AM

Looks like Florida may get hit with a Hurricane. Right now Erika is near the Virgin Islands and is projected to sweep through all of the Bahama Islands before either hitting Florida or sweeping its east coast as the cone is wide as it passes over all the islands.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2015, 09:04:07 AM by roadman65 »
Logged
Every day is a winding road, you just got to get used to it.

Sheryl Crowe

Alex

  • Webmaster
  • *
  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 4798
  • Location: Tampa, FL
  • Last Login: September 18, 2019, 09:35:26 PM
    • AARoads

Labor Day weekend is not for another week.

Verdict is not out on where T.S. Ericka may head. The storm has to surive a 36 hour period of strong wind sheer first. Whatever is left from that will help determine where its eventual path will be.

jeffandnicole

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 10120
  • Age: 44
  • Location: South Jersey
  • Last Login: Today at 05:31:29 AM

Ah, looks like the media is eating this up.

I saw a "spaghetti" forecast, which is those colored lines used to show the probable paths of the storm. There were about two dozen of then. Every single one of them does not show Florida taking a direct hit whatsoever!!!  They are all showing the storm will stay east of Florida (except for one that showed it going south of Florida).

Yes, it's still looking like some rain and wind for Florida, but current models doesn't even show it being hurricane strength near the eye of the storm, much less 100 miles or more away.
Logged

roadman65

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9516
  • Location: Orlando, fl
  • Last Login: Today at 12:29:15 AM

I am pretty optimistic about it not hitting, but then again nature!  Who knows what she will do.  Still if the eye is over 100 miles away to the east a lot of damage can still happen even on the west side.

As far as Labor Day goes, I am glad I got the weekends mixed up as I hate when Labor Day falls too soon.  Summer usually flies by and we do not even get the chance to enjoy it.  When I lived in New Jersey it was the end of Summer, with even the Boardwalks closing part way the week before as if you went to Seaside Heights on Labor Day you would find almost one third of the concessions closed already.

Just because the First of September falls on a Monday means that the Summer Season gets cheated on days of business Summer, but having it fall on a Tuesday makes up for that.  Also when I say Business i do not mean Boardwalk business, but the way the American businesses consider Labor Day to be the end of Summer even though officially it ends later in September whenever the sun crosses the Equator. 
Logged
Every day is a winding road, you just got to get used to it.

Sheryl Crowe

roadman

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 3746
  • Age: 58
  • Location: Boston, MA
  • Last Login: September 19, 2019, 05:20:10 PM

I saw a "spaghetti" forecast, which is those colored lines used to show the probable paths of the storm. There were about two dozen of them. 

Translation:  We really have NO idea what the storm will do, but we'll give you this complicated graphic in an attempt to look impressive.
Logged
"And ninety-five is the route you were on.  It was not the speed limit sign."  - Jim Croce (from Speedball Tucker)

"My life has been a tapestry
Of years of roads and highway signs" (with apologies to Carole King and Tom Rush)

roadman65

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9516
  • Location: Orlando, fl
  • Last Login: Today at 12:29:15 AM

I saw a "spaghetti" forecast, which is those colored lines used to show the probable paths of the storm. There were about two dozen of them. 

Translation:  We really have NO idea what the storm will do, but we'll give you this complicated graphic in an attempt to look impressive.
The cone is large, and after Katrina that was originally not supposed to go into the Gulf, as projected by some at the time, as you cannot rely on mere mortals with a degree to predict nature.  Always be on alert, but do not panic is the key.
Logged
Every day is a winding road, you just got to get used to it.

Sheryl Crowe

roadman

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 3746
  • Age: 58
  • Location: Boston, MA
  • Last Login: September 19, 2019, 05:20:10 PM

I saw a "spaghetti" forecast, which is those colored lines used to show the probable paths of the storm. There were about two dozen of them. 

Translation:  We really have NO idea what the storm will do, but we'll give you this complicated graphic in an attempt to look impressive.
The cone is large, and after Katrina that was originally not supposed to go into the Gulf, as projected by some at the time, as you cannot rely on mere mortals with a degree to predict nature.  Always be on alert, but do not panic is the key.
The basic rule of weather forecasting:  Anything over twelve hours out is an educated guess, and anything over twenty four hours out is just a guess.
Logged
"And ninety-five is the route you were on.  It was not the speed limit sign."  - Jim Croce (from Speedball Tucker)

"My life has been a tapestry
Of years of roads and highway signs" (with apologies to Carole King and Tom Rush)

ET21

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2160
  • Age: 27
  • Location: Chicagoland, USA
  • Last Login: September 19, 2019, 10:53:36 AM

I saw a "spaghetti" forecast, which is those colored lines used to show the probable paths of the storm. There were about two dozen of them. 

Translation:  We really have NO idea what the storm will do, but we'll give you this complicated graphic in an attempt to look impressive.

No those spaghetti plots help to diagnose a center line and allow us forecasters to see where the storm could end up. This helps to form the "Cone of Uncertainty" which has shrunken due to better accuracy and computing power over the past 10 years.

It is a very hard job to try and predict a fluid atmosphere that can change at any second. I know this because I just graduated college to be a meteorologist and I'll gladly give example problems for the QG theory, atmospheric physics, and a whole assortment of other complicated mathematical equations that get plugged into these models to help diagnose possible solutions.

Suffice it to say whether you believe meteorologists or not, I would say anyone living along the west and southern Florida peninsula should watch Erika with caution over the next couple of days.
Logged
The local weatherman, trust me I can be 99.9% right!
"Show where your going, without forgetting where your from"

Clinched:
IL: I-88, I-180, I-190, I-290, I-294, I-355, IL-390
IN: I-80, I-94
SD: I-190
WI: I-90, I-94
MI: I-94, I-196
MN: I-90

Thing 342

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1236
  • Age: 22
  • Location: Newport News / McLean, VA
  • Last Login: September 14, 2019, 06:45:53 PM
    • Thing 342's Road Photos

I saw a "spaghetti" forecast, which is those colored lines used to show the probable paths of the storm. There were about two dozen of them. 

Translation:  We really have NO idea what the storm will do, but we'll give you this complicated graphic in an attempt to look impressive.
The cone is large, and after Katrina that was originally not supposed to go into the Gulf, as projected by some at the time, as you cannot rely on mere mortals with a degree to predict nature.  Always be on alert, but do not panic is the key.
The basic rule of weather forecasting:  Anything over twelve hours out is an educated guess, and anything over twenty four hours out is just a guess.

It's gotten better, especially in the past couple of years: Compare Tropical Storm Debby's (which wound up going into FL as a weak TS) cone from 2012:

to Erika's current cone:
Logged

roadman

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 3746
  • Age: 58
  • Location: Boston, MA
  • Last Login: September 19, 2019, 05:20:10 PM

I saw a "spaghetti" forecast, which is those colored lines used to show the probable paths of the storm. There were about two dozen of them. 

Translation:  We really have NO idea what the storm will do, but we'll give you this complicated graphic in an attempt to look impressive.

No those spaghetti plots help to diagnose a center line and allow us forecasters to see where the storm could end up. This helps to form the "Cone of Uncertainty" which has shrunken due to better accuracy and computing power over the past 10 years.

It is a very hard job to try and predict a fluid atmosphere that can change at any second. I know this because I just graduated college to be a meteorologist and I'll gladly give example problems for the QG theory, atmospheric physics, and a whole assortment of other complicated mathematical equations that get plugged into these models to help diagnose possible solutions.

Suffice it to say whether you believe meteorologists or not, I would say anyone living along the west and southern Florida peninsula should watch Erika with caution over the next couple of days.
My comment was not intended to mock the science behind the "spaghetti plots".  Rather, it was directed at the media types who put the plots up on their HD weather map, then point to them and say "Because the models are all over the place, we're not really sure what's going to happen with Erika yet."

Believe me, I appreciate the benefits of "get ready" regarding a major weather event like a possible tropical storm or hurricane - it's essential at an emergency management level.  But when the local media in Boston starts saying to the public "Will Erika affect us?" when it's not even certain what track it will take approaching Florida, I tend to get a bit weary of the inentional scare mongering.

Quote
It's gotten better, especially in the past couple of years: Compare Tropical Storm Debby's (which wound up going into FL as a weak TS) cone from 2012:

My comment was intended as a joke.  If you've ever seen the Rocky and Bullwinkle adventure about the OogleBird, you'll understand it.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2015, 05:06:19 PM by roadman »
Logged
"And ninety-five is the route you were on.  It was not the speed limit sign."  - Jim Croce (from Speedball Tucker)

"My life has been a tapestry
Of years of roads and highway signs" (with apologies to Carole King and Tom Rush)

davewiecking

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 460
  • Age: 62
  • Location: Bethesda, MD
  • Last Login: August 04, 2019, 12:50:40 PM

Weather.com: "New Erika Florida Forecast: Lots of Changes Possible". The definitive word...
Logged

jeffandnicole

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 10120
  • Age: 44
  • Location: South Jersey
  • Last Login: Today at 05:31:29 AM

Almost everyone can point to ONE storm over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 years, and say "Well, this is what this storm did or didn't do", and then use that as to how we should look at every future storm.

On average, there's about 10 - 15 storms each year.  Some become serious Cat 5 hurricanes; some barely make tropical storm status.  While we can see Hurricane Katrina & TS Danny went a different direction than originally forecasted, there are dozens of storms that travelled exactly as forecasted, specially those forgotten about because they simply headed out to sea.  Bringing up a specific storm and applying it to every future storm is about as close to hitting the panic button as one can get to, without actually hitting it.


The basic rule of weather forecasting:  Anything over twelve hours out is an educated guess, and anything over twenty four hours out is just a guess.

And it seems like it's almost weekly that they can't even get it right just a few minutes in advance.  Because snow forecasts are so widely watched, I can point out many forecasts where they are telling us that it should be snowing nearly any minute now, and hours later we're still waiting.  Last year, the Washington DC to NYC Corridor had a major 12" - 24" snowfall expected, only to be downgraded during the time it was supposed to be snowing.  Several times.  In most cases, the actual snowfall was just a few inches.

For you football fans, if you recall the December 8th, 2013 Eagles game, that was supposed to be a minor 1" or so snowfall that was to occur during the game.  By the time the snow was forecasted to begin, it had already snowed 2".  It turned into an 8" storm, which no one was prepared for.  But it made for a historic and enjoyable game to watch! (I was supposed to be at the game...but wound up getting called in to plow roads instead)

Of course, the public wonders why plows are out when they say it's going to snow and it doesn't snow...and why the plows weren't ready for snows that aren't forecasted...as if transportation departments have special secret weather forecasts that no one else is privy to receive.

(Forecasting has) gotten better, especially in the past couple of years: Compare Tropical Storm Debby's (which wound up going into FL as a weak TS) cone from 2012:

to Erika's current cone:


What I see here is that the scales are different  The first picture is actually zoomed in more than the second picture, alluding to a bigger cone.  Can you repost these using the same scale? 

Before you even do that, I can judge by using the graph lines that the cone for Erika appears LARGER than the cone for Debby. 

And some wonder why people don't trust meteorologists.
Logged

 


Opinions expressed here on belong solely to the poster and do not represent or reflect the opinions or beliefs of AARoads, its creators and/or associates.