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Author Topic: Where will be the newest major city?  (Read 6678 times)

MantyMadTown

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Where will be the newest major city?
« on: August 07, 2018, 10:27:52 PM »

I'm wondering if there are any small to mid-sized cities that are poised to become big metro areas (having over 1 mil people) in the future, that will grow quickly over the coming decades. The Las Vegas area is a very recent example I can think of, seeing massive growth over the past 50 years and more than doubling its size since 1990. I wouldn't really count suburbs of an already major city, unless it becomes a major metro area in its own right.
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bing101

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2018, 11:27:14 PM »

Austin, TX was discussed at one point though to become the newest major city given that I heard of that area getting former California Residents at one point.
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2018, 11:35:23 PM »

The Fresno Metro Area was around 973,000 the last time I looked.   Certainly wouldn’t have thought that moving here, certainly doesn’t feel that way now.  Apparently the population in the City of Fresno has jumped from 217,000 in 1980 to about 500,000 today. 

Road Hog

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2018, 11:38:55 PM »

I'm wondering if there are any small to mid-sized cities that are poised to become big metro areas (having over 1 mil people) in the future, that will grow quickly over the coming decades. The Las Vegas area is a very recent example I can think of, seeing massive growth over the past 50 years and more than doubling its size since 1990. I wouldn't really count suburbs of an already major city, unless it becomes a major metro area in its own right.
A million for a metro area is kind of a low bar. Little Rock’s metro is a little under 700,000, for instance.
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texaskdog

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2018, 11:49:36 PM »

Austin, TX was discussed at one point though to become the newest major city given that I heard of that area getting former California Residents at one point.

Yes, way too many of them.  Figured Austin was already major though.  I say Salt Lake City.
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Rothman

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2018, 12:09:54 AM »

Salt Lake's MSA already has over a million people while the city has under 200,000.

Salt Lake proper has become quite a hollow city, only being saved by a whole lot of investment in the downtown by the LDS Church.  Just six blocks out of downtown (6th South) and it isn't pretty.
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roadman65

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2018, 12:19:24 AM »

Well Orlando already has proven itself, but development still continues outside Orlando and makes all of Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and parts of Lake and Polk Counties a defacto part of the city. 
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MantyMadTown

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2018, 12:56:03 AM »

I'm wondering if there are any small to mid-sized cities that are poised to become big metro areas (having over 1 mil people) in the future, that will grow quickly over the coming decades. The Las Vegas area is a very recent example I can think of, seeing massive growth over the past 50 years and more than doubling its size since 1990. I wouldn't really count suburbs of an already major city, unless it becomes a major metro area in its own right.
A million for a metro area is kind of a low bar. Little Rock’s metro is a little under 700,000, for instance.

That's a pretty extensive definition of a metro area. I was thinking more like a contiguous urban area, not really including rural counties that happen to have an economic connection with the core city. The Little Rock metro only has an urban population of about 431,000, and the core city itself has only just under 200,000 people.
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MantyMadTown

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2018, 01:03:29 AM »

Austin, TX was discussed at one point though to become the newest major city given that I heard of that area getting former California Residents at one point.

Yes, way too many of them.  Figured Austin was already major though.  I say Salt Lake City.

I figured that lots of Californians have moved there already. I bet lots of cities hate the influx of Californians moving to their area. Pretty much all the major cities in Texas and the western U.S. sound like big culprits.
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MantyMadTown

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2018, 01:09:20 AM »

Salt Lake's MSA already has over a million people while the city has under 200,000.

Salt Lake proper has become quite a hollow city, only being saved by a whole lot of investment in the downtown by the LDS Church.  Just six blocks out of downtown (6th South) and it isn't pretty.

You know I bet SLC is becoming a big hub for lots of companies and people to move to!
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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2018, 05:09:53 AM »

Charlotte, NC is already major by population figures, but people don't treat it as if it was one; it gets talked about in general conversation a lot less than other major cities.
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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2018, 05:47:45 AM »

Charlotte, NC is already major by population figures, but people don't treat it as if it was one; it gets talked about in general conversation a lot less than other major cities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_Triangle

Well what about Research Triangle its been in conversations about North Carolina as a major metro area and yes that states version of Silicon Valley.
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LM117

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2018, 08:31:23 AM »

Charlotte, NC is already major by population figures, but people don't treat it as if it was one; it gets talked about in general conversation a lot less than other major cities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_Triangle

Well what about Research Triangle its been in conversations about North Carolina as a major metro area and yes that states version of Silicon Valley.

Raleigh is on the list of contenders for Amazon HQ2 and Apple. But I highly doubt they’ll get either one due to the dumpster fire known as the General Assembly, which is up for grabs in November.
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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2018, 08:34:05 AM »

St George, Utah could be a contender. They have grown tremendously in the past 15 years, though I would have to wait and see if the growth continues to the point of being a major city.
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Chris

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2018, 08:51:49 AM »

Here is a list of MSA's: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas

If we define a major city as a 1 million+ MSA, and look at MSAs that have a 2017 population of over 700,000 and are growing fast, you'll end up with;

* Cape Coral-Fort Myers
* Provo-Orem
* Charleston
* Boise
* North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton

St. George, Utah is the smallest fast-growing MSA. But it's really far off from becoming a major metropolitan area.

webny99

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2018, 01:32:46 PM »

Charlotte, NC is already major by population figures, but people don't treat it as if it was one; it gets talked about in general conversation a lot less than other major cities.

Same with San Antonio (which is the 24th largest metro - Charlotte is 22nd). All the annexing that happens causes the city proper have a massive population, while separate suburbs are basically nonexistent.
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AlexandriaVA

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2018, 02:06:08 PM »

Isn't a lot of the "growth" in these cities simply the result of the city expanding geographically through the annexation of unincorporated suburbs? That definitely seems to be a sunbelt thing, as I don't know of any annexations in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.
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Brandon

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2018, 02:34:38 PM »

Isn't a lot of the "growth" in these cities simply the result of the city expanding geographically through the annexation of unincorporated suburbs? That definitely seems to be a sunbelt thing, as I don't know of any annexations in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

It must be a Sunbelt thing.  In the Midwest, you either get new suburbs (as in Wisconsin towns or Michigan charter townships), or the annexation of unincorporated land with nothing built on it yet (as is the case in Illinois).  Annexing unincorporated, but built-up areas is pretty much unknown.  They tend to stay unincorporated.
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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2018, 06:11:39 PM »

Merced,CA has to be in the running for newest Major City according to the OP's statement. Before Merced was mainly an ag town but now its transforming into a college town due to UC Merced. Note the growth phase is still in the process though. Also High Speed Rail in California is in talks at this time heading to Merced at the time of Post.
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DTComposer

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2018, 06:27:16 PM »

Merced,CA has to be in the running for newest Major City according to the OP's statement. Before Merced was mainly an ag town but now its transforming into a college town due to UC Merced. Note the growth phase is still in the process though. Also High Speed Rail in California is in talks at this time heading to Merced at the time of Post.

Merced County is actually experiencing its slowest growth ever right now. Growth since 2010 has been 6.6%, so it might perhaps reach 10% by 2020. The decade with the next-slowest growth was 1910-1920 when it was 14%. Put another way, the county had been adding 30,000 to 45,000 per decade between 1970 and 2010, and has only added 17,000 between 2010 and 2017.

But beyond that, based on the OP, Merced County would have to nearly quadruple its population to get to one million, so I don't think it's anywhere in the conversation right now.

Charlotte, NC is already major by population figures, but people don't treat it as if it was one; it gets talked about in general conversation a lot less than other major cities.

Same with San Antonio (which is the 24th largest metro - Charlotte is 22nd). All the annexing that happens causes the city proper have a massive population, while separate suburbs are basically nonexistent.

This depends on your definition of/criteria for a "major city" - and that discussion is a whole 'nother can of worms. That said, while I wouldn't include either city in a top 10 major U.S. city list, they both would certainly make a top 25 or 30 list, which I would still consider "major" - and I feel like I hear them both in the national conversation in proportion to this "ranking."

Here is a list of MSA's: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas
* Cape Coral-Fort Myers
* Provo-Orem
* Charleston
* Boise
* North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton

Boise and Charleston were two that popped into my mind before I started reading through the thread. Provo is too close to SLC's orbit to be a major city yet, and the two Florida MSAs currently lack any regional-level CBD and/or economic drivers that could develop them into a national-level city.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2018, 06:34:25 PM by DTComposer »
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hbelkins

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2018, 10:06:03 PM »

Charlotte has an Atlanta inferiority complex.
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mgk920

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2018, 10:28:33 PM »

Isn't a lot of the "growth" in these cities simply the result of the city expanding geographically through the annexation of unincorporated suburbs? That definitely seems to be a sunbelt thing, as I don't know of any annexations in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

It must be a Sunbelt thing.  In the Midwest, you either get new suburbs (as in Wisconsin towns or Michigan charter townships), or the annexation of unincorporated land with nothing built on it yet (as is the case in Illinois).  Annexing unincorporated, but built-up areas is pretty much unknown.  They tend to stay unincorporated.

The City of Madison, WI has boundary agreements in place that could conceivably double its population over the next few decades, but yes, in Wisconsin it is very much an exception.  Most of the state's metros have been experiencing pretty nasty township problems over the past few decades, the Appleton and Green Bay areas included (IMHO, the Appleton area is the state's 'poster child' for the need for top-to-bottom comprehensive local government reform).

Aside from Madison, among the state's larger cities to date only the Janesville and Oshkosh areas have largely escaped those problems.  Eau Claire to a lesser extent.  Superior, too, but it is smaller and not really a growth area.

Mike
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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2018, 10:54:35 PM »

Charlotte has an Atlanta inferiority complex.

Even though now significantly larger, I don't think Charlotte has gotten over its Richmond inferiority complex.
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MantyMadTown

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2018, 11:27:57 PM »

Isn't a lot of the "growth" in these cities simply the result of the city expanding geographically through the annexation of unincorporated suburbs? That definitely seems to be a sunbelt thing, as I don't know of any annexations in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

It must be a Sunbelt thing.  In the Midwest, you either get new suburbs (as in Wisconsin towns or Michigan charter townships), or the annexation of unincorporated land with nothing built on it yet (as is the case in Illinois).  Annexing unincorporated, but built-up areas is pretty much unknown.  They tend to stay unincorporated.

The City of Madison, WI has boundary agreements in place that could conceivably double its population over the next few decades, but yes, in Wisconsin it is very much an exception.  Most of the state's metros have been experiencing pretty nasty township problems over the past few decades, the Appleton and Green Bay areas included (IMHO, the Appleton area is the state's 'poster child' for the need for top-to-bottom comprehensive local government reform).

Aside from Madison, among the state's larger cities to date only the Janesville and Oshkosh areas have largely escaped those problems.  Eau Claire to a lesser extent.  Superior, too, but it is smaller and not really a growth area.

Mike

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webny99

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Re: Where will be the newest major city?
« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2018, 11:40:20 AM »

Charlotte has an Atlanta inferiority complex.

Buffalo and Syracuse have Rochester inferiority complexes too, but I think these should probably be their own thread.  :D
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