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Author Topic: Are we heading for a market crash?  (Read 2707 times)

NE2

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #50 on: November 20, 2018, 05:13:31 PM »

And, for the record, the wealthiest people I personally know right now are some of the nicest and most generous.
Until they vote to fuck over everyone else, unless your friends are some of the few that don't suck. But chances are they're racist assholes who deserve to die. Chances are you are too.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #51 on: November 20, 2018, 05:24:06 PM »

the proliferation of tax attorneys and certified public accountants. These fields wouldn't exist unless people with money didn't feel the need to find every tax loophole they can want to keep the income they're legally entitled to keep.

That might have been what you meant to say.

Actually, it is not.

Those who benefit from society should contribute to it. It's part of the social contract.

Ayn Rand be damned.

They do, as previously noted容ven more by the dollar and by the percentage point than those who earn less.

And as also been noted, not necessarily on an individual basis.

Warren Buffet once said that his secretary paid a higher percentage of her income than did he (based on his position as a hedge fund manager, and that income as well as dividends being taxed at a lesser rate). This should never be the case in a truly progressive tax system.

We all bitch about the cost of such-and-such road or rail or tunnel or other infrastructure, and how none of it ever gets done, or if it does, how long it takes. Did you ever wonder why there are no funds to do these anymore? It ain't rocket science (another area where the US is falling behind).

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #52 on: November 20, 2018, 06:15:39 PM »

And, for the record, the wealthiest people I personally know right now are some of the nicest and most generous.
Until they vote to fuck over everyone else, unless your friends are some of the few that don't suck. But chances are they're racist assholes who deserve to die. Chances are you are too.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-execution-sultan-of-coins-gold-sanctions-economy-corruption-human-rights-trial-a8636451.html

Well at least Iran has done something whenever they have a financial crisis. It's this one.
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Brandon

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #53 on: November 20, 2018, 06:24:43 PM »

Here is the top marginal tax rate in America compared to other major economies.  For a period in the 60s America had a higher tax rate than the UK, France, and Germany until Kennedy dropped it from 90% to 70%.  It wasn't until Reagan when the top tax rate dropped all the way down to 28%.  The idea that anyone would have to pay 70% or 90% in taxes makes me want to throw up in my mouth a little.   



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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #54 on: November 20, 2018, 07:30:48 PM »

deserve to die
How tolerant of you.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #55 on: November 20, 2018, 08:32:47 PM »

the proliferation of tax attorneys and certified public accountants. These fields wouldn't exist unless people with money didn't feel the need to find every tax loophole they can want to keep the income they're legally entitled to keep.
That might have been what you meant to say.

Except that doesn't make any sense. If they were legally entitled to keep it, then it wouldn't be taxed.
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US71

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #56 on: November 20, 2018, 08:42:19 PM »

the proliferation of tax attorneys and certified public accountants. These fields wouldn't exist unless people with money didn't feel the need to find every tax loophole they can want to keep the income they're legally entitled to keep.
That might have been what you meant to say.

Except that doesn't make any sense. If they were legally entitled to keep it, then it wouldn't be taxed.

I see we dropped 551 points today.
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J N Winkler

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #57 on: November 20, 2018, 11:08:47 PM »

(2015 numbers)

Average tax rate, bottom 50% = 3.59%
Average tax rate, top 1% = 27.10 %

Don't fool yourself into thinking the top 1% is dropping their tax rate by more than 23% just by claiming deductions.

Where are you getting these numbers?  I see 27.1% (or figures close to it) for the top 1% in Tax Foundation blog pieces, where they are based on adjusted gross income with deductions already rolled in.  (The Tax Foundation is a broadly anti-tax think tank.)

Just so everyone understands, there are fewer than 100,000 Americans making more than $30 million a year.  In order to be in the top 1% of earners in America, your annual income only needs to be about $400,000.  There's a decent chance you know at least one person who fits into that category, so it's important to think of them whenever you discuss how to get more money out of the "filthy rich".

I do know a few one-percenters, and I suspect I may have a few in my extended family.  Nevertheless, I do not think of increased progressivism in the tax code as equivalent to confiscation.  I believe that, like the poor, the rich will always be with us, especially in a country like the US where previous episodes of severe income inequality led to crises of labor unrest, anarchism, propaganda of the deed, etc. as well as the longer-lasting consequences of stringent antitrust enforcement and high marginal tax rates for the very wealthy, but did not fundamentally realign the country away from capitalism.  (The more I learn about the histories of Russia and China, the less convinced I become that the explosive dispossession of the landlord class in both countries with the advent of Communism was historically anomalous.)

In this thread we have already had an indirect quotation from Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century, which has become a touchstone for those who see that inequality in income and wealth is increasing and believe that this is bad.  But it is also worth reading his Economics of inequality, a much shorter book that looks at the various dimensions of the problem (inequality of labor income, capital income, accumulated wealth, etc.) and the pros and cons of various options for addressing it through redistribution.  His appraisal of the latter is pretty bleak, though he endorses various forms of intertemporal social investment such as education, infrastructure, basic and applied scientific research, as well as a high minimum wage, which he sees not as a mechanism for redistribution but rather as a way to protect low-skilled workers' standards of living from the monopsony power of employers.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #58 on: November 20, 2018, 11:59:13 PM »

Here is the top marginal tax rate in America compared to other major economies.  For a period in the 60s America had a higher tax rate than the UK, France, and Germany until Kennedy dropped it from 90% to 70%.  It wasn't until Reagan when the top tax rate dropped all the way down to 28%.  The idea that anyone would have to pay 70% or 90% in taxes makes me want to throw up in my mouth a little.   



That's why this was made:
"One for you, nineteen for me" - George Harrison.

Well, at least we have an awesome song to freshen up the mood of an otherwise severely derailed thread.  :coffee:
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #59 on: November 21, 2018, 01:57:15 AM »

Psh, this thread was doomed from the start. I'm surprised it's still open.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #60 on: November 21, 2018, 08:08:13 AM »

Here is the top marginal tax rate in America compared to other major economies.  For a period in the 60s America had a higher tax rate than the UK, France, and Germany until Kennedy dropped it from 90% to 70%.  It wasn't until Reagan when the top tax rate dropped all the way down to 28%.  The idea that anyone would have to pay 70% or 90% in taxes makes me want to throw up in my mouth a little.   



That's why this was made:
"One for you, nineteen for me" - George Harrison.

Well, at least we have an awesome song to freshen up the mood of an otherwise severely derailed thread.  :coffee:
Eleanor Rigby is better  :bigass:
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Brandon

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #61 on: November 21, 2018, 09:16:21 AM »

Psh, this thread was doomed from the start. I'm surprised it's still open.

I'm pleasantly surprised it's still open.  It's been a bit of a learning experience for me as I've little to do with stocks and the market.  There's only been one person trying to derail (unsuccessfully so far) the thread, and as far as I'm concerned, all his posts can be deleted.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #62 on: November 21, 2018, 01:14:20 PM »

And, for the record, the wealthiest people I personally know right now are some of the nicest and most generous.
Until they vote to fuck over everyone else, unless your friends are some of the few that don't suck. But chances are they're racist assholes who deserve to die. Chances are you are too.

I know several people who are "wealthy" (a relative term, really) who spend their money helping others.  Some wealthy people are jerks, some are not. Then you have people like my sister who, upon receiving half of my mom's estate, went to work trying to screw me out of my half.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #63 on: November 21, 2018, 01:26:08 PM »

Rise rates, plateau, recession.  The fed is just about to pause their rate hates before the next recession hits.  If the fed gets to 3% before they pause the hikes i would be shocked.

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #64 on: November 21, 2018, 01:30:41 PM »

Rise rates, plateau, recession.  The fed is just about to pause their rate hates before the next recession hits.  If the fed gets to 3% before they pause the hikes i would be shocked.



That purple line does not exist. What would happen in 2030 if that purple line was there?
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Rothman

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #65 on: November 21, 2018, 01:31:06 PM »

Those defending not raising taxes on the rich still forget that their income is also more proportioned to be in capital gains.

Giving them a huge tax cut on their salaries and now saying popular programs are unable to be funded is the definition of ingenuous.
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kphoger

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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #66 on: November 21, 2018, 01:33:30 PM »

the proliferation of tax attorneys and certified public accountants. These fields wouldn't exist unless people with money didn't feel the need to find every tax loophole they can want to keep the income they're legally entitled to keep.
That might have been what you meant to say.

Except that doesn't make any sense. If they were legally entitled to keep it, then it wouldn't be taxed.

When you or I claim deductions on our taxes, why does nobody accuse us of "finding every tax loophole we can"?  Or when a small business owner hires a tax preparer at H&R Block to calculate the best way of filing taxes, nobody thinks anything out of the ordinary is afoot?  Doing so is simply considered smart and prudent, and not doing so is viewed as paying more money to the government than necessary.  Yet somehow, when it's a wealthy person *gasp* doing a similar thing through their accountants, suddenly people say it's selfish and vile.

If they were legally entitled to keep it, then it wouldn't be taxed?  I'm sorry, I thought we were talking about the money they don't pay to the government.  When my wife and I file our taxes (and, by the way, she is self-employed), we are legally entitled to keep all of our income that doesn't get payed in taxes.  Most years, that means the government owes us money (a refund), because we're legally entitled to keep some of the money that we had already paid in.  So yes, if there is some "loophole" in the tax code that allows a person to keep a certain portion of his income, then, by the same reasoning, he is legally entitled to keep that portion of his income.  A tax is what the government requires you to pay out of your money.  Everything not required of you is still your money.  How hard you worked to keep every last penny of it is irrelevant to the fact that it's your money.



Where are you getting these numbers?  I see 27.1% (or figures close to it) for the top 1% in Tax Foundation blog pieces, where they are based on adjusted gross income with deductions already rolled in.  (The Tax Foundation is a broadly anti-tax think tank.)

I believe you and I were looking at the same data, just from different years.  But, if those figures have deductions already rolled in葉hen it doesn't really discount my assertion that the wealthy pay more taxes than the rest of us by percentage point, does it?



Those who benefit from society should contribute to it. It's part of the social contract.
They do, as previously noted容ven more by the dollar and by the percentage point than those who earn less.
And as also been noted, not necessarily on an individual basis.

But what does the individual basis have to do with anything?  There are plenty of poor people who try harder than others to avoid paying more than necessary in taxes, plenty of middle-class earners who try harder than others to avoid doing so, and plenty of wealthy folks who try harder too.  I don't think anyone in this discussion is trying to claim that every single person in a certain tax bracket acts in a certain way.  Well, actually, now that I think about it, it does seem like a lost of people on here are basically saying that about the rich.  They're apparently all evil, greedy, heartless people who hire others to figure out how to cheat the system.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #67 on: November 21, 2018, 01:41:06 PM »

the proliferation of tax attorneys and certified public accountants. These fields wouldn't exist unless people with money didn't feel the need to find every tax loophole they can want to keep the income they're legally entitled to keep.
That might have been what you meant to say.

Except that doesn't make any sense. If they were legally entitled to keep it, then it wouldn't be taxed.

When you or I claim deductions on our taxes, why does nobody accuse us of "finding every tax loophole we can"?  Or when a small business owner hires a tax preparer at H&R Block to calculate the best way of filing taxes, nobody thinks anything out of the ordinary is afoot?  Doing so is simply considered smart and prudent, and not doing so is viewed as paying more money to the government than necessary.  Yet somehow, when it's a wealthy person *gasp* doing a similar thing through their accountants, suddenly people say it's selfish and vile.

If they were legally entitled to keep it, then it wouldn't be taxed?  I'm sorry, I thought we were talking about the money they don't pay to the government.  When my wife and I file our taxes (and, by the way, she is self-employed), we are legally entitled to keep all of our income that doesn't get payed in taxes.  Most years, that means the government owes us money (a refund), because we're legally entitled to keep some of the money that we had already paid in.  So yes, if there is some "loophole" in the tax code that allows a person to keep a certain portion of his income, then, by the same reasoning, he is legally entitled to keep that portion of his income.  A tax is what the government requires you to pay out of your money.  Everything not required of you is still your money.  How hard you worked to keep every last penny of it is irrelevant to the fact that it's your money.



Where are you getting these numbers?  I see 27.1% (or figures close to it) for the top 1% in Tax Foundation blog pieces, where they are based on adjusted gross income with deductions already rolled in.  (The Tax Foundation is a broadly anti-tax think tank.)

I believe you and I were looking at the same data, just from different years.  But, if those figures have deductions already rolled in葉hen it doesn't really discount my assertion that the wealthy pay more taxes than the rest of us by percentage point, does it?



Those who benefit from society should contribute to it. It's part of the social contract.
They do, as previously noted容ven more by the dollar and by the percentage point than those who earn less.
And as also been noted, not necessarily on an individual basis.

But what does the individual basis have to do with anything?  There are plenty of poor people who try harder than others to avoid paying more than necessary in taxes, plenty of middle-class earners who try harder than others to avoid doing so, and plenty of wealthy folks who try harder too.  I don't think anyone in this discussion is trying to claim that every single person in a certain tax bracket acts in a certain way.  Well, actually, now that I think about it, it does seem like a lost of people on here are basically saying that about the rich.  They're apparently all evil, greedy, heartless people who hire others to figure out how to cheat the system.
Nah, they're not evil.  They should just be taxed at a higher rate.  Give us little guys a break.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #68 on: November 21, 2018, 01:57:56 PM »

Rise rates, plateau, recession.  The fed is just about to pause their rate hates before the next recession hits.  If the fed gets to 3% before they pause the hikes i would be shocked.



That purple line does not exist. What would happen in 2030 if that purple line was there?
One may argue that purple line is there since 1980: https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
What would happen?... Well, there are unsustainable economic patterns - and one cannot count on continuation of current trends into indefinite future. 
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #69 on: November 21, 2018, 02:16:05 PM »

Nah, they're not evil.  They should just be taxed at a higher rate.  Give us little guys a break.

↓  So, basically, what I said earlier (pertinent phrase highlighted).  ↓

making rich people pay even more more of their earned income to the government than the rest of us

↓  And what hbelkins said before me.  ↓

further tax those who are already paying the vast majority of taxes?



It doesn't matter that much whether someone gets $20M or $28M per year; they're still really rich. On the other hand, decreasing $34K even to $32K (an increase from 15% to 20% tax) would make it harder to live, and there are many more of those people.

This sort of math puzzles me.  Nobody would take $1 from someone who is down to his last $10.  Hardly anyone would suggest taxing an extra $2000 out of someone who earns $20,000 a year.  But, for some reason, taxing an additional $500,000 out of someone who earns $5 million a year is fine and dandy.  Why is the person who works hard to earn $20,000 a year somehow more entitled to what they've earned than the one who built a business empire and earns substantially more?  Why disincentivize people from building their businesses by letting them keep less of what they earn?  Isn't growing business what keeps the economy going?
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #70 on: November 21, 2018, 02:17:28 PM »

No.  Trickle-down economics is a myth.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #71 on: November 21, 2018, 02:22:00 PM »

They do, as previously noted容ven more by the dollar and by the percentage point than those who earn less.
Stop trying to justify policies that benefit horrible people. It makes you one of them.

What do you define as a horrible person? Anyone who makes more money than you do?
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #72 on: November 21, 2018, 02:23:51 PM »

No.  Trickle-down economics is a myth.

Good.  Now I don't feel bad for keeping all my stimulus check a few years ago.



They do, as previously noted容ven more by the dollar and by the percentage point than those who earn less.
Stop trying to justify policies that benefit horrible people. It makes you one of them.

What do you define as a horrible person? Anyone who makes more money than you do?

I'm pretty sure that's true.  Although it's not limited to just them, but likely includes everyone who makes less than he does too.
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #73 on: November 21, 2018, 02:34:24 PM »

That purple line does not exist. What would happen in 2030 if that purple line was there?

Here's the long term trend of the fed rate since 1980.  After each recession - and as the country has taken on more and more debt - the fed has been unable to raise rates to the previous recession level.  The fed may raise rates in December but abandon the rate hikes in 2019 (the pause) before the next recession hits.  That seems like the most likely scenario.



When we experience a market crash over the next few years the fed will inevitably drop the rate back to 0% and hold it there till 2030 and beyond.  Just like the 2008 crash the fed will try to stimulate the economy with multiple rounds of QE and take even more debt on their balance sheets.  But we are currently in a 租ebt bubble着 bailing out that bubble with more debt doesn稚 make a whole lot of sense to me.  Even with a modest rise in rates to 2% the housing market appears to be weakening and the monthly supply of houses has started to increase with the higher interest rates kicking in (not to mention home refi's are currently at an 18 year low).



There are other signs the economy is about to break down.  The yield curve is about to invert which has been a very predictable recession indicator over past recessions...



In addition, the Wilshire 5000 full cap price index to GDP ratio (the Warren Buffett indicator) is signaling that the markets are more overvalued than they were during the dot-com bubble....


« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 02:42:13 PM by tradephoric »
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Re: Are we heading for a market crash?
« Reply #74 on: November 21, 2018, 02:41:29 PM »

No.  Trickle-down economics is a myth.

Good.  Now I don't feel bad for keeping all my stimulus check a few years ago.



They do, as previously noted容ven more by the dollar and by the percentage point than those who earn less.
Stop trying to justify policies that benefit horrible people. It makes you one of them.

What do you define as a horrible person? Anyone who makes more money than you do?

I'm pretty sure that's true.  Although it's not limited to just them, but likely includes everyone who makes less than he does too.
Less than zero?
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