Minor things that bother you

[Rothman]

The fact that weather forecasting seems to have gotten really unreliable this winter.  Saturday is less than 48 hours away and the meteorologists still have no clue what the weather is going to be, or whether a coastal system is going to affect Sunday.  This is the type of reliability that I expect from a five day forecast, not a 2-3 day forecast!  I swear we've even had a day where there was a dusting of snow on the ground when no possibility of such had been mentioned the night before, just to illustrate how bad it's gotten.  How is anyone supposed to plan for the weekend when the weather is still such an unknown on Thursday evening?

Supposedly the NWS is outsourcing a lot of their forecasting to AI these days, so that might account for it.

Last night, when I finally went to bed around midnight, the Weather Channel said the snow was going to end over the next couple of hours.

Woke up to it still snowing...

[kphoger]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

[Rothman]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

Eh, prediction methods have improved over the last half-century, despite the still-less-than-satsifactory results.

[Molandfreak]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

Eh, prediction methods have improved over the last half-century, despite the still-less-than-satsifactory results.

[kphoger]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

Eh, prediction methods have improved over the last half-century, despite the still-less-than-satsifactory results.

Oh, for sure.  But precipitation still seems to be the hardest thing to predict:  when it will start, how much will fall, when it will end.  Such predictions have never been worth trusting too much, even with recent advances.

[kphoger]

At work, I start getting notifications two weeks ahead of time that one of my passwords is about to expire.  With a different password, I get zero notification at all, and then one day it just stops working and I have to have someone reset it.  Both irritate me.

[JayhawkCO]

At work, I start getting notifications two weeks ahead of time that one of my passwords is about to expire.  With a different password, I get zero notification at all, and then one day it just stops working and I have to have someone reset it.  Both irritate me.

I just had that happen, and when I went to change it, apparently I didn't remember the old password correctly so had to open a ticket to get it completely reset.

[thenetwork]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

Eh, prediction methods have improved over the last half-century, despite the still-less-than-satsifactory results.

Oh, for sure.  But precipitation still seems to be the hardest thing to predict:  when it will start, how much will fall, when it will end.  Such predictions have never been worth trusting too much, even with recent advances.

So many times in Western Colorado the local NWS has said ZERO PERCENT chance of rain when in fact, there is a brief drizzle or two within 10 miles of their office.

Is it that hard to even just put a 5-10% chance of precip in a forecast just to cover your ass if there is some water vapor in the air?

Still a 90-95% chance you won't see any precip...

[kphoger]

My favorite times are when there's an 85% chance of rain, but it's pouring outside.

[wxfree]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

Eh, prediction methods have improved over the last half-century, despite the still-less-than-satsifactory results.

Oh, for sure.  But precipitation still seems to be the hardest thing to predict:  when it will start, how much will fall, when it will end.  Such predictions have never been worth trusting too much, even with recent advances.

So many times in Western Colorado the local NWS has said ZERO PERCENT chance of rain when in fact, there is a brief drizzle or two within 10 miles of their office.

Is it that hard to even just put a 5-10% chance of precip in a forecast just to cover your ass if there is some water vapor in the air?

Still a 90-95% chance you won't see any precip...

Technically, if there isn't at least a one-hundredth of an inch, then it didn't rain.  A day with trace doesn't count as a day with rain.  The probability is for measurable precipitation, not traces.  Still, they don't usually give a 0% chance unless they're quite certain about it.  When you look at the forecast details, it isn't unusual (depending on where you are, of course) to have 2 or 3 percentages with sunny skies and no rain mentioned in the forecast.

[1995hoo]

At work, I start getting notifications two weeks ahead of time that one of my passwords is about to expire.  With a different password, I get zero notification at all, and then one day it just stops working and I have to have someone reset it.  Both irritate me.

I get the "upcoming expiration" notice 21 days in advance. I don't mind it because I try to change the password on Friday afternoon as the final thing I do for the day. The reason is because of a single sign-on system—it takes some time for the new password to push to the various services that fall under the single sign-on, so I don't want to change the password during the workday. Doing it at COB Friday allows ample time for it to push without affecting anything I need to do.

The downside of doing it on Friday, of course, is remembering to use the new password on Monday (or Tuesday, if Monday is a holiday) morning, so I set a reminder on my phone to ding me at the time when I normally sign on.

[wxfree]

My favorite times are when there's an 85% chance of rain, but it's pouring outside.

That means the forecast was accurate.  The percentage relates only to the likelihood, not to the amount.  In Thunderstormland, it isn't uncommon to have heavy rain in one place and none in a place nearby.  There can be a low probability, but the rain that falls is heavy.  The probability is for measurable precipitation (at least 0.01 inch of rain or 0.1 inch of snow).  I've seen a 10% chance of rain in the forecast while there was an active tornado warning.  That 10% likelihood is interesting.  Sometimes they will mention it in the forecast, and sometimes when you check the specs and see 10%, they don't mention it.  That seems to be up to forecaster discretion.

[kphoger]

My favorite times are when there's an 85% chance of rain, but it's pouring outside.

That means the forecast was accurate.  The percentage relates only to the likelihood, not to the amount.  In Thunderstormland, it isn't uncommon to have heavy rain in one place and none in a place nearby.  There can be a low probability, but the rain that falls is heavy.  The probability is for measurable precipitation (at least 0.01 inch of rain or 0.1 inch of snow).

When half the city is currently being drenched in rain, it makes no sense to me that there can be a <100% chance of rain at the same time.

[vdeane]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

Eh, prediction methods have improved over the last half-century, despite the still-less-than-satsifactory results.

Oh, for sure.  But precipitation still seems to be the hardest thing to predict:  when it will start, how much will fall, when it will end.  Such predictions have never been worth trusting too much, even with recent advances.

There's a difference between getting exact timing/amounts right and not even knowing whether it's going to rain or snow at all until 24 hours in advance.

Mind you, I don't look at the precents very often (which seem to be your sticking point; I'm guessing there's a difference between how you're interpreting what it means and what it actually means; IIRC it relates to all the locations in the forecast area, so a 100% of rain chance doesn't mean 100% chance where you are, it means 100% for every square inch the local NWS office forecasts for).  I use the amounts on Weather Underground and the futurecast model on WTEN's radar page (in addition to WTEN's live commentary during the news).

[SSOWorld]

Going to McDonald's and having them ask you, will you be using your mobile app today from a pre-recorded Voice just for a real life person to come on and either asking you will you be using your mobile app today or even worse? You think you've already given it to them so you just place your order and you don't get your points.

Will you be using your mobile app or even worse?

[Max Rockatansky]

Going to McDonald's and having them ask you, will you be using your mobile app today from a pre-recorded Voice just for a real life person to come on and either asking you will you be using your mobile app today or even worse? You think you've already given it to them so you just place your order and you don't get your points.

Will you be using your mobile app or even worse?

Could be worse, I could see "Quarter Pounder" and "Big Mac" easily being turned into thirsty euphemisms by unscrupulous Drive-Thru attendant.

[wxfree]

My favorite times are when there's an 85% chance of rain, but it's pouring outside.

That means the forecast was accurate.  The percentage relates only to the likelihood, not to the amount.  In Thunderstormland, it isn't uncommon to have heavy rain in one place and none in a place nearby.  There can be a low probability, but the rain that falls is heavy.  The probability is for measurable precipitation (at least 0.01 inch of rain or 0.1 inch of snow).

When half the city is currently being drenched in rain, it makes no sense to me that there can be a <100% chance of rain at the same time.

The other half of the city isn't being drenched.  This is where it's important to look at the difference between point forecasts (click here to see the forecast for this small square) and zone forecasts.  A forecast for an entire county, or television station viewing area, has to cover everyone.  Even those small squares include more than a single point.  Also, the forecast is for the future, not for right now.  The current weather report is for right now, or the last reporting interval.  The NWS forecast is routinely updated each morning and afternoon.  That's a minimum, just to change the first period between "today" and "tonight," but it can be updated whenever they determine it needs to be.  They're not going to look out the window, see rain, and then change the forecast, even for a single square, to 100%, and then change it back to 70% or whatever once the rain stops.

The chance of rain is not like other forecast measures.  At any moment, you have a temperature and humidity, and maybe clouds or fog, but in a moment, zero time, you can't get measurable precipitation, even if it's falling (it takes time for each drop to fall).  Years ago, NWS precipitation forecasts were issued for 6 hour blocks (I think they were based on UTC, not local time).  The probability and amount are for an entire block.  These days the forecasts are more precise (which is not to say accurate) and they use shorter 2 hour blocks (it might be 3, I'm not certain).  Generally the 12 hour descriptions, the "today" or "tonight" worded forecasts, mention the highest probability in that period.  Sometimes when the highest probability has passed, they update the wording with the lower probability after the time of the update.

[ZLoth]

I've been using Lossless Cut to edit my audio files recently, especially audiobooks. Lately, I've been removing the "GraphicAudio" intros and promos at the end of each audiobook. Audacity is also used, but mainly to search out chapters in an audiobook.

I have also found that the M4B format to be "better" than the lossy MP3 format, especially when using variable bit rates. MP3 in individual tracks for music is better than a audiobook in MP3 format.

As for FLAC... it is too "expensive" in terms of how much disk space is consumed. The important part is the bit rate... the higher the better.

[Plutonic Panda]

Going to McDonald's and having them ask you, will you be using your mobile app today from a pre-recorded Voice just for a real life person to come on and either asking you will you be using your mobile app today or even worse? You think you've already given it to them so you just place your order and you don't get your points.

Will you be using your mobile app or even worse?

Will you be using your new NeuroLink function to order today, sir?

[mgk920]

However, albums that I acquired from other sources have an audible gap between tracks. Not a couple of seconds, but there's definitely a gap. I'm not sure why it works in iTunes-ripped tracks but not in tracks ripped by other apps.

You can use an audio editor program like Audacity to remove the dead air at the end of each track.

I also note that I have to remove anything that I did not put into the 'notes' part of the tag files in my .mp3s.  One of my usual tag file editors tries to put a string of random ten eight-digit 'hex' numbers in the notes section of any .mp3 that I edit and I have to manually remove them.  I also remove any 'notes' from .mp3s that other encoders make.

Mike

[kphoger]

When has anyone been able to accurately predict precipitation?  This is not new.

There's a difference between getting exact timing/amounts right and not even knowing whether it's going to rain or snow at all until 24 hours in advance.

As I said, when has that ever not been the case?  Unless there's a huge-ass system moving toward your area, they're not going to know with 100% certainty that it's going to rain or snow until things develop more.  And even then, I always assume the system might slow down or speed up substantially more than they expeted.

You seem to put a lot more stock in weather forecasts than I ever have.

When half the city is currently being drenched in rain, it makes no sense to me that there can be a <100% chance of rain at the same time.

[reasons]

Say what you like, but it's still silly to be in the middle of a huge rainstorm, with the forecast showing <100% chance of rain.  I didn't doubt that there were reasons, but that doesn't make it not silly.

[wxfree]

When half the city is currently being drenched in rain, it makes no sense to me that there can be a <100% chance of rain at the same time.

[reasons]

Say what you like, but it's still silly to be in the middle of a huge rainstorm, with the forecast showing <100% chance of rain.  I didn't doubt that there were reasons, but that doesn't make it not silly.

I didn't mean to be argumentative, but I'm a huge weather nerd and I love technical things.  When I get started, I like to get into a lot of detail.

Here's one that I, after decades of study, didn't know.  I found out by interacting with a Facebook page for one of the NWS offices.  Forecast zones, which are important not just for zone forecasts, which are somewhat outdated due to the new point forecasts, but also for things like wind advisories and winter storm warnings, which aren't parallelograms like tornado watches, are usually counties.  Where local geography affects the weather a lot, such as mountains or coastlines, or where counties are very large, they may draw the zones differently.  But there's actually a different kind of forecast zone, fire weather zones, and they aren't always the same as weather forecast zones.  They follow things like vegetation and slopes.  They don't even necessarily follow county warning area boundaries, which always follow county lines (as far as I know).  A small part of a fire zone in the area the Midland,Texas office covers is on land in the Albuquerque office's area.  It's across a county line, but the topography pushes it into a foreign zone, since fire is linked to the ground in a way weather isn't.

There's your random useless fact for the day.

[ZLoth]

From my perspective, the weather in the North Dallas, Texas area is more interesting than the weather in Sacramento, CA. In Sacramento, the rain year runs from July 1st to June 30th, and the forecast from around April to October tends to be the same.... warm to hot, fairly dry, almost no rain. I think Las Vegas, Nevada has more rain in August than Sacramento. Meanwhile, the warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico/America tends to run against the cold and dry air of the midwest causing some thunderstorms and hail. Yes, I have a NOAA Weather Radio.

[ZLoth]

Meanwhile, this PEBCAK finally realizes, after how many years, that the "New" in the topic list is not just a label, but a clickable button that takes me to first unread message.

I'm such a eye-dee-ten-tee.

[kphoger]

Meanwhile, this PEBCAK finally realizes, after how many years, that the "New" in the topic list is not just a label, but a clickable button that takes me to first unread message.

I'm such a eye-dee-ten-tee.

I forget how I learned that.  It came up in conversation somehow at one point.